At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (60-33) has won the last two games of this series to even things at 2-2 after their 109-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (65-27) has lost four of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks rallied to win Game Four despite allowing the Suns to make 51.3% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in Milwaukee’s last 15 games. The Bucks neutralized Phoenix’s shooting edge by creating more scoring opportunities from offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Milwaukee held a +12 edge in turnovers by forcing 17 turnovers and only coughing the ball up five times. The Bucks have played 4 straight Unders after having a turnover edge of +10 or better in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee goes on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Bucks’ last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games overall. Phoenix lost Game Four despite that 51.3% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Phoenix did not cover the point spread in their last two losses in Milwaukee. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: I thought both teams would enjoy sharp offensive games in Game Four — and I was wrong on that front. The Suns’ 51.3% shooting percentage disguised their weak 7 of 23 (30%) clip from behind the arc. Milwaukee made only 40.2% of their shots — but they were saved by Phoenix being sloppy with the basketball and too often playing out of control. The Suns were simply playing too fast — and their likely correction to limit the turnovers that killed them is to slow the pace. With the winner of Game Five seizing control of the series, I expect teams to be nervy. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 Game Fives Under the Total. With the number still in the high-210s, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W1-D0-L0) comes off a 1-0 win against Haiti in their opening match in this competition on Sunday. Martinique (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss to Canada in their opening match in Group B play on Sunday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gregg Berhalter chose an inexperienced starting XI on Sunday — and he will likely continue with that approach tonight against the small Caribbean nation. Berhalter’s goal is to help establish more reliable depth for the Stars and Stripes to call upon as they continue their World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar next fall. And the teams’ best players like attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, striker Josh Sargent, and midfielder Giovanni Reyna are not on the roster given their professional responsibilities for their European professional league training. This roster only began training together last week — so chemistry and cohesion in the attack may take some time to develop. The Stars and Stripes loan goal on Sunday was from defender Sam Vines may his first start in international competition — and it was against a shorthanded Haiti side missing five players after a COVID outbreak on the team. Attacker Paul Arriola had to leave that match with a hamstring injury after 14 minutes into the contest — so I really do not know about the attacking talent that Berhalter will have at his disposal. Berhalter wants his team to press and control possession — and this helps for them to overwhelm lesser opponents. They have now generated clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches on home soil — and they have conceded only four times in those ten matches. Martinique scored first in their 4-1 loss to Canada but that was from a miscue by the Canucks that afforded Emmanuel Riviere that scoring chance. Les Matinino was playing for the first time since November of 2019 given the pandemic and their limited resources. In their final two home-and-home matches against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League in the fall of 2019, they only scored one time — but they conceded just twice. Martinique’s loss to Canada was just their second defeat in their last five matches — and they only lost that one match to Honduras in their five CONCACAF Nations League contests. Manager Mario Bocaly will have his team play cautiously — and what his team lacks in international competition, they make up for in cohesion since most play domestically in Martinique.

FINAL TAKE: Canada is a potent attacking side — so the four goals that Les Matinino allowed may speak more about the Canadiens than it does about Martinique’s defensive quality. They should play better with a match now under their belt against hostile competition for the first time in 20 months. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250) on Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match on Saturday. Guatemala (W0-D0-L1) lost to El Salvador in their opening match by a 2-0 score on Sunday. This match will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico peppered Trinidad and Tobago with 30 shots in that opening match on Saturday — but only seven were on target. Manager Gerardo Martino lost one of his best offensive players in that match with Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffering a head injury that will keep him out for the rest of the tournament. El Tri is already without their best striker in Raul Jimenez who remains out after suffering a significant head injury playing for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League in the fall. Mexico may not have the firepower — and the cohesion in their attack — to score more than three goals in this match. But El Tri will likely earn their fifth straight clean sheet. Mexico has not allowed a shot on target in three straight matches. Guatemala was given a second chance to compete in this tournament when Curacao had to drop out the day before the event started because of a COVID outbreak. Los Chapines had lost their final qualifying match to compete in this tournament in a heartbreaking 10-9 loss via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score with Guadeloupe on July 6th. Guatemala played El Salvador tough on Sunday with that match being scoreless until La Selecta scored their first goal in the 81st minute. Interim manager Rafael Loredo will have his team park the bus — this team had not allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 2-0 loss to Paraguay in June 2019. Furthermore, Los Chapines have allowed only three goals in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have a good goalkeeper in Nicholas Hagen who has five clean sheets himself in 2021.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on September 30th with Mexico winning by a 3-0 score. That seems the worst-case scenario score for the Guatemalans who have gained in chemistry and cohesion from their summer experiences. El Tri has a sketchy recent past in second-round matches in the Group Stage of the Gold Cup with only one win and two 0-0 draws. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce-back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Paul commented after Game One that his team wants to push the pace — and they should be rested with the extra day off between games. The Over is 47-23-1 Phoenix’s last 71 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has also played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 220 or higher. Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at by double-digits. Returning home was what the Bucks players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to jump-start their shooting. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to make 14 of their 28 shots including 8 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. The Over is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last 4 games at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Over is also 16-4-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 straight Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and I expect this to be the wildest game yet in this series since it remains critical for the Bucks to win the game. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These are the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament — and while both sides also have surrounded the fewest goals in this event, neither has played an opponent as explosive as they will tonight. I think both defenses will be exposed. Argentina only scored once against a counter-attacking Colombia side in the Semifinals — but they generated a healthy 2.45 expected goals (xG). La Albiceleste has scored 11 times in this event — but their xG rises to 15.92 for a robust 2.66 xG per match average. Lionel Messi leads the way with four goals and five assists. He is averaging 1.18 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. I do not see Brazil blanking the Barcelona star even though he has yet to score a goal in his career against them. He has a good thing going with Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez who has scored in three straight matches. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack. Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. And while the Selecao has only conceded two goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is more than twice that at 5.15.

FINAL TAKE:  While finals can often evolve into cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I suspect that this match may be lively. Messi is in as top-notch form as he has ever been playing for his national team — and he has a younger and more athletic supporting cast than he has had in recent years. Brazil is a powerhouse that has underachieved its metrics despite averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: New York (95-42) won the opening game of this series last night with a 4-0 victory. Houston has a two-game losing streak after winning their previous six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. New York has also won 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total on the road after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, New York has won 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Cole gets the start with his 8-4 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 17 starts. But the right-hander has struggled since MLB cracked down on the use of illegal substances. Cole’s spin rate is way down — and so are his numbers. In his last six starts since the start of June, Cole has a 5.00 ERA with only 38 strikeouts in 36 innings of work. And his teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when he is pitching in July. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Astros score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average, a .386 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .813. Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have played 6 straight Overs after playing at least three straight Unders. Houston has played 25 of their last 35 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Greinke who is 8-2 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home in Minute Maid Park where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .296 opponent’s batting average. The Astros have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Greinke on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Greinke pitching at night. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. And while Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16, the fact is that the Azzurri has allowed goals in their last two matches. In hindsight, perhaps the Italian defense was overrated a bit after a relatively easy group that included Turkey, Wales, and a solid Switzerland side. Italy conceded 1.86 expected goals against a Belgium team that was without Eden Hazard. Spain has scored 12 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 17.58 are most in the tournament. La Roja leads all teams in touches in the opponent’s penalty area, completed passes, and pass accuracy — and they are second in the event in shot-creating actions (to Italy). The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: The Italy backline lost one of its key players with left back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles’ tendon in the second half of the match with Belgium. These two teams have had the top two attacks in this event — and they will both play aggressively. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 25* Copa American Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-31) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 123-112 win at home against the Hawks as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Atlanta (51-38) has lost three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Atlanta has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. But La Roja are vulnerable to the counter-attack when they do lose possession. While they have conceded only four goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) jumps to 6.58 xGA. They may be giving up only 6.0 shots per match, but these shots are high quality. In their four matches, their opponents are averaging 0.27 expected goals (xG) per shot. In their Golden Generation run in winning the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, and the 2012 Euro, the Reds allowed only 0.06 xG per shot. And while they took a step back in the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Euro, 2018 World Cup cycle from a competitive standpoint, they still held their opponents to just 0.14 xG per shot. In this Euro, their opponents have managed to take 10 shots that had an expected goal success rate of 0.3 or higher. In those three major international tournaments from 2014-2018, Spain conceded only 14 shots overall with an xG rating of 0.3 or higher. The Spanish defense — playing without Barcelona’s Sergio Ramos in the middle for the first time since 2004 — is vulnerable. Switzerland thrives in the counter-attack. They are fourth in this tournament in passes that lead to shots. They are fifth for the most touches in the penalty area. They are fifth in most shot-creating actions. But the Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and this should be a higher-scoring affair. Spain will control possession once again — and they will pepper the Swiss with plenty of shot attempts. But Switzerland should score at least once on the counter-attack on this susceptible Reds defense that is learning how to live without Ramos leading them in the back. 25* Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (33-43) has lost five games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Texas yesterday. Boston (47-31) has won three in a row after their weekend sweep of the New York Yankees that culminated in a 9-2 victory yesterday afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox got their bats out yesterday with four home runs — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after banging our four or more home runs in their last game. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where they scored at least eight runs. And in their last 11 games after winning two games in a row at home against AL East foes, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total. But the reason why the Total for this game has been bet up to 11 is due to the trials that Garrett Richards is experiencing without the benefit of his usual substances that help him grip the baseball. Without the ability to use sunscreen — something that Richards says he has been using since his rookie year — he cannot get the grip on his curveball. Richards has abandoned even using what has been his best pitch — and that leaves him as an unusable pitcher when he is dependent on his below-average four-seam fastball. Richards has a 4-5 record this season with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 15 starts. In his last three starts since the MLB has cracked down on foreign substances like suntan lotion, Richards has an ugly 9.82 ERA and a 2.55 WHIP. Even without these new circumstances, Richards was a starting pitcher I was looking to fade. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.02 and 4.79 moving forward. And he has struggled at Fenway Park with a 6.46 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP along with a .333 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in June with Richards starting. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Kansas City scores 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have not hit a home run in four straight games — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not hitting a home run in two straight games. And while Kansas City has scored one run in their last two games, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Danny Duffy who is 4-3 with a 1.81 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts (nine games). The veteran left-hander’s great start was interrupted by a left flexor strain that put him on the shelf for six weeks. He is being eased back into the rotation — so no more than 50 or 60 pitches from him are expected tonight. Even without taking into account his injury which may impact his effectiveness moving forward, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.65 and 3.84. The Royals bullpen will be asked to pitch at least half this game — and that group has a 6.60 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in the last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .266 batting average, .320 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .756. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout Stage with their 3-1 win against Turkey in their last Group Stage match last Sunday. France (W1-D2-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: France is the reigning World Cup champions — and they have some of the best-attacking talents in the world in Paris-Saint Germain’s Kylian Mbappe and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema. But Les Bleus are a defensive-first team that prefers to generate offense on their counter-attack. This has been the recipe for success for manager Didier Deschamps in their 2016 Euro campaign when they lost in the Finals to Portugal and their World Cup championship team in 2018. France has scored only four times in this tournament in three matches — and only two of the goals were from open play. They benefited from Mats Hummels' own goal in their victory against Germany. They also got a penalty kick goal from Mbappe against Portugal. Even their lone goal against Hungary came from a bad gaffe from the Hungarians. France has generated only 4.5 expected goals in their three matches. This group seems to lack a plan to break down their opponent if they settle into a defensive posture (outside of hoping their elite talent will somehow find a way to score). Deschamps does not advance his fullbacks into an advanced position to complement the attack. And Barcelona forward Ousmane Dembele is injured taking away a super-sub attacking option for Deschamps. But the French defense remains immaculate. They have only allowed one goal from open play from their three games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored both of his goals on Wednesday from penalty kicks. Getting whistled for a penalty with the ball inside the box just does not happen very often. Switzerland lacks the dynamic scoring talent that tends to draw penalties either. The Swiss National Team only scored one goal against Wales and Italy before netting three goals against a suspect Turkey side. Xherdan Shaqiri scored twice in their match against the Turks — but the “Alpine Messi” has declined as a talent as a 30-year-old and rarely starts for Liverpool at this point in his career. The Swiss generate plenty of shots — they generated the third-most shots in the group stage. The problem is that the quality of shots is low — and they lack the talent to execute on these low-probability shots. The Rossacrociati have the fourth-lowest expected goals per shots attempt with many of their shots coming from long distance. But Switzerland remains a solid defensive side that will play disciplined fundamental defense. While they allowed five goals in their three matches, the expected goals allowed dropped to 4.4 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: It will be difficult for Switzerland to score against France — their expected goals of just 0.25 xG against Italy was telling. But I do not see Les Bleus score more than two goals in this match. Styles make fights — and neither of these teams is comfortable playing on their front foot. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154) in the Round of 16 in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Austria (W2-D0-L1) clinched their involvement in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 victory against Ukraine on Monday. Italy (W3-D0-L0) remained unscathed in the Euro 2020 with a 1-0 victory against Wales last Sunday. This match will be played on a  neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy has now not allowed a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the first three games. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season. Austria is a dangerous opponent. They have one of the most talented midfields in this tournament with RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg Xaver Schlager. Manager Franco Foda also has a jack-of-all-trades talent in David Alba who played left-back for Bayern Munich but has played in the midfield or left wing for his national team. Alba was poached by Real Madrid earlier this year — he is the wild card talent in this match. Das Team will play conservatively with the hopes of scoring on the counter-attack. They ranked second in the Group Stage by forcing turnovers in 38% of their pressures on the press. Italy may be vulnerable here — their three Group Stage opponents did not top a turnover percentage over 28% with their press in the opening three matches. Throw out their 3-1 result against an overmatched North Macedonia. Austria did not score against the Netherlands — but they held the Dutch to just two goals despite playing on their home soil in Amsterdam. They held Ukraine to just 0.36 expected goals but only scored once in that match.

FINAL TAKE: I considered Italy underrated entering this tournament — but I suspect the pendulum has turned the other way with their 3-0 start with a +7 goal differential. The Azzurri benefited from an easy group — and they have not played an opponent with as much quality as these Austrians in perhaps three years when they played Portugal (unless Poland or the Netherlands are better competition?). The Italians also played all three of their Group Stage matches on home soil in Rome. I expect their defense to travel — but the attack will be exposed with La Nazionale likely playing more cautiously in this match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) in Game Seven of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (43-28-8) forced a climactic seventh game in this series with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Wednesday. Tampa Bay (46-20-6) returns home to host this Game Seven having lost two of their last three games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Islanders have played a decisive 41 of their last 63 road games Under the Total after a win or tie in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win at home this season — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by just one goal. New York has also played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Islanders are outplaying the Lightning when playing at even strength. They have held them to only 7.67 High Danger Chances per game in this series — and they are scoring only 1.85 expected goals per game at five-on-five. Tampa Bay is thriving when they get on the power play. While their 29.4% success rate with the man-advantage in this series is below their 37.7% mark in this postseason, it is still well above their 23.1% success rate during the regular season. The Islanders were the least penalized team during the regular season. The referees tend to swallow their whistles in Game Sevens to not put undue influence on the game. There have been two games in this series that finished with more than five combined goals — and the Lightning had five and six power-play opportunities in both contests. In the other four games in this series, Tampa Bay was not on the power play more than twice for the entire game. New York has played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and they have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games when facing elimination. The Islanders have also played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total on the road. Tampa Bay has played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They may be without their leading scorer in the playoffs in Nikita Kucherov tonight after he was knocked out of the game early in the first period from a crosscheck that targeted the injured hip that kept him out of the entire regular season. Kucherov is the straw that stirs their drink on the power play from good to elite. He has five goals and a whopping 27 assists in the postseason. The Lightning have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at home in closeout games.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 opportunities to host the Islanders — and they have played 8 straight Game Sevens Under the Total. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Semifinal Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-29) has lost the first two games of this series with their 3-2 loss on the road last night. San Diego (44-32) has won six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss to an NL West rival — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. They give the ball to Bauer who is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is the poster child for spin rate — and seems to have been negatively impacted with MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances that help pitchers get more spin on the baseball. In his last four starts, Bauer has a seen his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.46 and 1.27 marks. While those are still solid numbers, they are not elite — and he is facing a good Padres’ lineup that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .274 batting average, .357 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .932. The Over is 13-6-1 in San Diego’s last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Perhaps the spin rate issue with Bauer is overstated — and he is simply experiencing good ole fashioned regression? His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.44 and 3.73 for the right-hander moving forward. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning at least six in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total when favored. They counter Musgrove who is 4-6 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 14 games (13 starts). The sabermetrics call for an ERA of 3.97 and 3.00 moving forward. The left-hander changed his approach this season with an increased reliance on his cutter and slider at the expense of his four-seamer and sinker. But hitters adapt once the book gets written on his new approach — and the Dodgers have already faced him once this season on April 25th. His teams have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with him pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He only struck out two batters in his last performance on June 17th — and his teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Musgrove pitching with five or six days of rest. The Dodgers may not have Mookie Betts in their lineup tonight as he deals with an illness — but they are averaging 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 27-11-2 in LA’s last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when motivated by at least double-revenge. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D1-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw with England last Friday. Croatia (W0-D1-L1) also settled for a draw with their 1-1 result with the Czech Republic on Friday. This match will be played in Scotland’s home soil at Hampden Park in Glasgow.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Scoring looked to be a challenge for this Scotland team lacking in a dynamic attacker up front. Southampton’s Che Adams is a poacher — but he needs a creative partner up top (like Danny Ings with Southampton) to generate the chances that he can then pick up on. In midfielders Ryan Fraser, John Fleck, and John McGinn, the Tartan Army has capable players but who are not dynamic playmakers. So it is not a surprise that Scotland has yet to score a goal. And while their expected goals are at 3.0 in their first two matches, underachieving the expected goals tally is not uncommon for teams that lack quality finishers. Manager Steve Clarke has his team smartly embracing defensive tactics given these limitations — and they have only conceded two goals in this tournament. Clarke has moved defensive back Andy Robertson up top to a wing to help generate offense, but using players out of position is not ideal. But this team is playing quality defense. They have allowed only two goals — and they held a loaded English side to just seven shots, with only one on target. Croatia has scored just once — and they have generated only 1.6 expected goals in their two matches. The doldrums in the attack were on displaying in their tune-up matches to begin the month as well as they only scored once in their two friendlies against Belgium and Armenia. The Chequered Ones reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup — but forward Mario Mandzukic and midfielder Ivan Rakitic have since retired. Croatia still has talent in their midfield — led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric — but they lack comparable talent up top. This team simply looks uninspired with four straight losses and just two wins in their last eleven matches across all competitions. Frankly, this is a veteran team that knows they peaked in 2018. After a year-long busy schedule to fit everything in during a pandemic that delayed the end of the 2019-20 campaigns, this group may simply be tired.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams need the three points that will come with a victory. Because both sides are struggling to score goals, I suspect they will consider a 1-0 deficit to be devastating. Cautious play is likely — and if a team falls behind, expecting two goals to tie the game is probably overly optimistic. 25* Euro 2020 Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Oakland (44-29) has lost two straight games after their 2-1 loss in New York against the Yankees yesterday. Texas (25-46) has lost six in a row after their 4-2 loss to Minnesota yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. And while Oakland had been on a seven-game winning streak before dropping their last two, they have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Montas who is 7-6 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.13 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in four starts. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Montas pitching with a Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.91 moving forward. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .226 batting average, .282 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .649. The Under is 4-1-1 in Texas’ last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Texas has also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Gibson who is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 0.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a .191 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Rangers have played 4 of their 6 home games Under the Total with Gibson on the hill this season.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 range. Oakland has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing at night. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers took a 62-40 lead going into halftime but their shooting got ice cold as they made only 3 of their 24 shots from behind the arc in the final 24 minutes to blow that game. While it is easy to blame the offense, Doc Rivers’ team allowed the Hawks to score 40 points in the fourth quarter to steal Game Five. In general, Philadelphia has played outstanding defense after getting blitzed in the first half of the first game of this series. Since Game One, the Sixers have held the Atlanta to scoring at just a 108.4 points per 100 possessions rate. Philly’s formula to win this series is on defense. And while Atlanta wants to force the tempo to tire out Joel Embiid in the second half, Rivers will need to counter by slowing the game way down — and in a battle of tempo, slow usually beats fast. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after owning a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They hit the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when favored. The Sixers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Atlanta has won the last two games in this series as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset wins. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Hawks’ head coach Nate McMillan having his team less reliant on 3s as this series has moved forward. Granted, Atlanta took 40 shots from behind the arc in Game Four while making only 12 of these shots. In Game Three, the Hawks attempted only 23 shots from 3-point range. On Wednesday in Game Five, the Hawks attempted only 26 shots from behind the arc, making just nine of these shots. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less, 3 of these games have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. It will be difficult for Durant to come close to repeating that effort — especially with fatigue being an issue. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. Brooklyn shot 49.4% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets have just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. With the oddsmakers setting the Game One number just under 240, some bettors may think the Under trend is completed — and the Over is the smart play again. However, I suspect that the 108 points for the Bucks were more likely their scoring ceiling at this point. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Bucks have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home after an upset loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 25-10-1 in the Bucks’ last 36 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. While Milwaukee’s offensive attack has struggled in this series, their efforts on defense remain elite.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the playoff series. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with their 118-104 win against the Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after riding a six-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 12 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. The Under is 19-9-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 10 or more points. And while the Jazz have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Utah is dealing with its own injury issues. Donovan Mitchell made just 9 of 26 shots from the field in Game Four as the right ankle injury he suffered seems to be impacting his play. With a 42.6% usage rate for the Jazz on offense, he may be wearing down. Michael Conley is questionable to return to the court for the first time in this series — if he does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Salt Lake City against the Jazz. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at 55% of their shots. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after giving up at least 130 points in their last game. Additionally, Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Head coach Tyronn Lue made a defensive adjustment on defending Donovan Mitchell on Saturday by having his primary defender challenge him earlier up the court. That tactical change helped the Clippers play their best defensive game in the series, overall while limiting the Jazz to 42.9% shooting. Los Angeles stays at home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-7-3 in the Clippers’ last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Michael Conley has been declared out for this game with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of this series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-28) won their first game in this series with their 86-83 victory at home against the Nets as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free-throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Where Budenhozler continues to adapt is on defense — that is the route from which the Bucks can win this series. They have slowed down the high-powered Nets offense to just 107.7 PPG. And the pace is slowing down. After averaging 102.2 possessions per game in the regular season, Milwaukee's pace was 97.7 on Thursday. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 6 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn should have fresh legs on defense — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Nets have played 24 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. I expect more of the same with the market slow to react to the new realities of this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-28) had their two game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 122-105 loss at Phoenix as a 6-point underdog in the opening game of this series. Phoenix (56-23) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets only made 46.7% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Nikola Jokic was just 10 of 23 from the field in the game for 22 points. It was just the third time in 79 games this season that Jokic’s point total was below his shot attempts number. Jokic did not attempt a free throw attempt either which had only happened four other times this season. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton was only whistled for one personal foul in his 38 minutes of play. Jokic only had three assists despite averaging 8.3 Assists-Per-Game for the season. He should be more active and aggressive tonight which will help the Nuggets approach or top their 118.6 Points-Per-Game scoring average in the playoffs. Denver has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Nuggets’ last 26 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Michael Porter only scored 15 points in Game One while not playing for most of the second half with a sore back. He has initially listed as questionable, but he has been upgraded as probable to play tonight. He should play better tonight as well in his role as the primary scoring complement to Jokic. Denver stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Phoenix has seen the Over go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Phoenix makes 49.8% of their shots at home this season with them averaging 115.8 PPG. They had balanced scoring against the Nuggets on Monday with four players scoring at least 20 points. Chris Paul looked as healthy as he has since suffering the stinger injury in the Lakers series. He made 8 of 14 shots for 23 points and added 11 assists. The Suns have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Phoenix has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Wednesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-28) has won four of their last five games after defeating Dallas in Game Seven of their playoff series by a 126-111 score as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Utah (56-21) has won four in a row after dispatching Memphis in five games with their 126-110 win as a 9-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers saved their best 3-point shooting performance for Game Seven as they nailed 20 of their 43 shots (46.5%) en route to a 50% shooting percentage for the game. That was Los Angeles’ best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Mavericks to nail 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Utah may be rusty with their shooting touch after the six-day layoff after ending their series with the Grizzlies. They made 51.6% of their shots in Game Five which was the best shooting effort in their previous three games. The Jazz have played five straight Overs — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Toal after playing at least four straight Overs. Utah has allowed at least 110 points in five straight contests — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in at least four straight games. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. The Jazz’s defense will present a problem for the Clippers — they ranked third in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Utah allowed only 10.9 make 3-pointers per game, the lowest in the league during the regular season. They also lead the NBA by holding their opponents to just 50.4% shooting inside the arc. The Jazz host the first two games of this series where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Under is 6-0-2 in the Clippers’ last 8 games in Western Conference Semifinals. 25* NBA 2nd Round Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-27) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 115-107 loss at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog in Game One of this series on Saturday. Brooklyn (53-25) has won three straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks endured the combination of some bad shooting luck and just an underachieving effort on the offensive end of the court on Saturday. They made only 6 of their 30 shots from behind the arc. They missed 8 of their 19 free throw attempts. They shot just 44.6% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Milwaukee should approach their 48.6% field goal percentage along with their 38.3% mark from 3-point land and their 78.3% free throw percentage when on the road tonight. They should be encouraged by the 15 offensive rebounds they pulled down on Saturday. Their size advantage should help them get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities all series — and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez should dominate with their inside scoring. Milwaukee outrebounded the Nets by a 58-47 margin — and they have outrebounded their last five opponents by at least 11 boards. The Bucks have played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 10 boards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last five opponents by at least 10 boards. We had the Under for Game One — and that game finished well below the 239.5 point total. But Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. I expected rust for Game One — and now I expect fresh legs and better shooting. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing their second game in five days. Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Bucks have also played 5 of their last 7 second games in a playoff series Over the Total. Brooklyn only made 46.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage in their last three games. The team was rattled early after James Harden re-injuring his hamstring. The Nets will adjust to Harden’s absence tonight out of the gate. They play at a faster pace without Harden on the court since he prefers to slow things down when he gets a defender in isolation. And the modus operandi for rookie head coach  Steve Nash to any problem is to play at a faster pace (what else from a devotee of Mike D’Antoni?). In the 19 games the Mets played without Harden in the regular season, the average combined score was 236. Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two straight games at home. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 35 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee’s expected points based on their shot quality from 3-point range adds 15  points to their Total in Game One — and their expected points overall rise to 127. Kris Middleton only made 6 of 23 shots for 13 points — but his expected points based on his shot selection were 27 points. Brooklyn’s shot quality produced 123.5 expected points. Given the pace of play in Game One which I do not expect to change, the Regression Gods should see this game finish Over the Total. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION:  Atlanta (45-32) has won eight of their last nine games after their 103-89 victory at New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (53-24) has won six of their last seven games with their 129-112 victory against Washington as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday to end that series in five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta made a dramatic improvement once Nate McMillan became their head coach midseason — and the team is playing much better on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks have held their last eight opponents to no better than 44.2% shooting — and six of their last seven opponents have not topped 42% shooting. The rest should help this team as they have played 6 straight Unders when playing their second game in seven days. But the offensive attack for this team wanes when they are on the road. Atlanta averaged 119.3 points per 100 possessions at home during the regular season — but that mark dropped to them scoring only 104.0 points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Hawks have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total as a dog. Philadelphia has played 35 of their last 51 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. The team will likely be without Joel Embiid who is nursing a meniscus tear in his right knee. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. Going into Game Five of the Washington series, the 76ers were scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In that series (after Game Four), the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They were scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series (after Game Four) with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. Philly torched the defensively challenged Wizards by making 51.2% of their shots on Wednesday — but Washington loves to play at a fast pace which helped them get open looks. Atlanta slows the pace down — so getting good looks will be more of a challenge. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and they have played 3 of their last 4 opening games to a new series Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Embiid is going to start this afternoon. Frankly, I am not sure how effective he will be on the offensive end of the court — but his presence protecting the rim will probably help our Under play, overall. These teams last played on April 30th when the Sixers crashed Atlanta at home by a 126-104 score. Atlanta has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-28) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Five of this series with their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (45-32) returns home with the opportunity to close out this series with their 3-2 lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have palled 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. And in their last 7 games played with one day of rest, the Under is 5-1-1. Los Angeles hits the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Under is 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games as a favorite — and the Under is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games when favored in the playoffs. Dallas benefited from a resurgent performance from Luka Doncic who rebounded from his subpar 9 of 24 shooting mark in Game Four with a 42 point night on Wednesday which included him nailing 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. Doncic also assisted on 14 baskets in Game Four — he scored or assisted on all but six of the Mavericks’ field goals. He clearly benefited from the extra second day of rest. But this game is being played with one day of rest — will Doncic be able to recover from his injured neck that seemed to hold him back in Game Four? This is Dallas’ fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing just their fourth game in ten days. The Mavericks held the Clippers to 41.2% shooting on Wednesday. Head coach Rick Carlisle had this team playing better on the defensive end of the court to close out the regular season. While the Mavs ranked 21st in the season in Defensive Efficiency, they were 13th in that metric over their last 15 games. They return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that played at the 26th and 28th slowest paces in the league in the regular season. That helps explain why they have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in Dallas Under the Total. The Clippers have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (79) and the Colorado Avalanche (80) in Game Two of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (44-17-3) looks to bounce back from their 7-1 loss to the Avalanche on Sunday. Colorado (44-13-4) has won ten games in a row with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche offensive attack looks unstoppable right now. Colorado has scored at least four goals in seven straight games — and they have scored at least five goals in six of these games. Colorado has played 4 straight Overs after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Additionally, the Avalanche have 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning at least four games in a row. They have played 9 straight Overs after scoring at least four goals in four straight games. They have won every game in the postseason by at least three goals — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least three goals. The Avalanche are likely to give up their share of goals tonight as well — they have not registered a shutout in six straight games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Avalanche stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs when playing at home with two days of rest. The Over is also 19-7-1 in Colorado’s last 27 playoff games when favored. Vegas continues to play without one of their top defensemen in Brayden McNabb is in COVID quarantine. The Golden Knights have allowed more than one goal in four straight games. Despite scoring only one time on Sunday, their expected goals in all situations was 2.39. They were also defending against Colorado power plays for much of that game. Vegas has played 7 straight playoff games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least four goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (79) and the Colorado Avalanche (80). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Washington (36-42) kept their season alive on Monday with their 122-114 upset victory against the 76ers as an 8.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (52-24) had been on a five-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game after he injured his back early in the game on Monday. He only played 11:24 minutes of the game. His absence played a large role in Philly shooting only 41.7% from the field. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. The 76ers score +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In this series, the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They are scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. As it is, Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 76ers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Philadelphia has also played 35 of their last 50 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Washington got 12 first quarter points from Davis Bertans to keep them competitive early in the game. But Bertans later suffered a calf strain that will likely keep him out the rest of this series. He is critical to the Wizards’ offense since he is the team’s best 3-pointer shooter — he made 39.4% of his shots from behind the arc in the regular season. His long distance shooting helps to open up space for Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to slash to the basket. Washington only made 35.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season -- ranking 24th in the league — even with a healthy Bertans. Washington has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as an underdog getting at least 7 points. The Wizards have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: In the 10 games in late March that the Sixers played without Embiid, 7 of these games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (52-23) has won five games in a row with their 132-103 road victory against the Wizards as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington (35-42) has lost eight of their last nine games as they face elimination trailing 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers made 58.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting percentage for them in their last 68 games. While I appreciate that the Wizards have no answer for Joel Embiid, they are not likely to shoot that well from the field again tonight. Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 PPG on 54.5% shooting from the field in this series. The last team to do that was the 1985 Los Angeles Lakers with Magic Johnson and Kareem-Abdul Jabbar. It is simply very difficult to continue shooting and scoring at such a prolific rate — even against mediocre defensive teams. And if the Sixers are winning this game easily, head coach Doc Rivers is likely to rest his starters to ensure nothing happens injury-wise before their showdown with Milwaukee in the next round of the playoffs. As it is, Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road. The 76ers have also played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 15 road games as a favorite, Philadelphia has played 12 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series. Washington should play better on defense — the Sixers’ 58.6% field goal percentage was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 69 games. The Wizards were playing better on defense to close out the regular season. Once they got back to full health, Washington went on a 17 of 22 winning streak where they ranked eighth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss at home by 10 or more points. The Wizards have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 21 games after just a point spread loss, Washington has played 15 of these games Under the Total. The Wizards only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday — and they have a fundamental problem in this series. Washington lives close to the basket on offense — they led the NBA in the regular season with the most shot attempts and the highest field goal percentage from three feet to ten feet from the basket. But with Joel Embiid patrolling the paint, the Sixers have a rim protector that is stifling the Wizards’ attack. Washington stays at home for Game Four where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Wizards have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook and Ish Smith are both questionable for this game with injuries. Westbrook is dealing with a right ankle sprain. If they don’t play, the offensive attack for the Wizards will be shorthanded. Even if they play, their injuries may limit their shooting effectiveness. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when hosting the 76ers. 25* NBA 1st Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (63) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (64) in Game Seven of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (27-24-11) forced a climactic Game Seven with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Saturday. Toronto (38-16-8) has blown a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have not won a playoff series in 17 years — and now they face their nightmare scenario of blowing a big lead in a Game Seven on their home ice in front of their very anxious fans. The pressure will be tremendous — and I expect Toronto to be very tight tonight. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have not handled the pressure very well so far in this series. Both players have generated only four points in the first six games of this series — and only Matthews has scored with one goal. These players may be tired — head coach Sheldon Keefe is playing both stars for plenty of minutes including Marner serving on the Power Play Kill Unit. Previous head coach Mike Babcock managed minutes much differently before getting canned last year for not playing Mathews enough in regular-season games. Well, Babcock has won Stanley Cups — and Keefe was a minor league coach before getting promoted. The overtime periods in the last two games have not helped the energy levels of these stars — and Toronto has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row in overtime. The Maple Leafs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their sixth or more games in ten days (this series started on May 20th with Game Two on May 22nd). Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Montreal has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Canadiens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. And while Montreal took a 2-0 lead by scoring two goals in the third period — but they then allowed two goals in the final nine minutes of the game to force overtime. The Canadiens have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing two or more goals in the third period. Carey Price has found his game in this series — the goaltender he has a 2.44 Goals-Against-Average against the fourth highest-scoring team in the NHL with a .926 save percentage. He has a .877 save percentage against high danger scoring chances which is one of the reasons that Matthews and Marner are slumping. Montreal has played 15 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 20-5-4 in the Canadiens’ last 29 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Under is also 8-3-1 in the last 12 games between these two teams. 25* NHL 1st Round Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (63) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-27) won the first game in this series on Friday with their 118-108 victory at Dallas as a 2.5-point road favorite as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (44-31) holds a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have improved their shooting from the field in each game in this series after making 57.1% of their shots in Game Three. That was the highest field goal percentage for this Los Angeles team in their last 20 games. The Clippers made only 44.9% of their shots in Game One. Even with head coach Tyron Lue substituting defense for offense with his benching of Patrick Beverley for Reggie Jackson, LA is due for some regression on offense. The Clippers have been scoring at an unsustainable 127.5 points per 100 possession rate in this series. The Under is 5-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers have also seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 9 playoff games when favored. Dallas made 20 of their 39 shots from behind the arc in the losing effort on Friday. They are making 50.5% of their shots from distance in this series which is simply unsustainable — especially if they continue to launch 36.3 shots from 3-point land per game as they have in the first three games in this series. The Mavericks made only 36.2% of their 3-pointers in the regular season — and the Clippers were sixth-best in the NBA by holding their opponents to 35.5% shooting from behind the arc. Luka Doncic is dealing with a neck issue as well — so while he will likely play, his super-human shooting skills may not be as spectacular in this Game Four. The Dallas is defense ranked only 21st for the season in Defensive Efficiency — but they improved to 13th over the last 15 games of the regular season. Head coach Rick Carlisle can get his group to play better on that end of the court. The Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on their home court. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Mavericks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (53) and the Colorado Avalanche (54) in Game One of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (44-16-3) advanced to this series with their 4-3 victory against Minnesota in Game Seven of their opening-round series on Friday. Colorado (43-13-4) has won nine games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Blues in St. Louis last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I awaited confirmation that Robin Lehner was the goaltender tonight for the Golden Knights — and he will be. I like the move by head coach Peter DeBoer since Marc-Andre Fleury was tiring with the every-other-day grind of the first round of the playoffs. Lehner will be fresh and with a chip on his shoulder to demonstrate he deserves consideration to be the starting playoff goaltender as he was last postseason. Lehner had a 1.99 Goals-Against-Average in 16 playoff starts last fall with a .917 save percentage and four shutouts. Lehner posted a 2.29 GAA with a .913 save percentage in 19 regular-season starts this year — and he was a bit more effective on the road with a 2.26 GAA and a .915 save percentage in eight starts. Vegas is already conditioned to grind out low-scoring games after surviving the defensively-minded Wild. They have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Golden Knights have also played 22 of their last 32 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. And in their last 5 road games as an underdog, Vegas has played 4 of these games Under the Total. I expect Colorado to be rusty with a week off after quickly disposing of the Blues last week. It is telling that the Under is 5-0-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 games when playing with at least three days between games. They closed out that series with St. Louis with 5-1 and 5-2 victories. Colorado has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games on the road by more than one goal. It may be Nathan MacKinnon who garners most of the attention for the Avalanche — but they play outstanding defense as they ranked third in the league by allowing only 2.36 Goals-Per-Game. They also ranked third in the regular by allowing only 1.98 Goals-Per-Game at even strength — and they led the NHL with just a 1.73 expected goals allowed per game mark at even strength. They held the Blues to only seven goals in their four-game series. Goalie Philipp Grubauer made his claim of being one of the best in the league with a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average and a .922 save percentage. And don’t underestimate the loss of second-line center Nazeem Kadri who is appealing the eight-game suspension he incurred in that opening-round series. Kadri had 11 goals and 21 assists in the regular season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They last played on May 10th in a game to determine the top seed in the West Division and the eventual President’s Trophy for the best regular-season record. Colorado won in Las Vegas by a 2-1 score — and the Golden Knights have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total when avenging a loss. 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (53) and the Colorado Avalanche (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 105-94 victory against the Knicks as a 4.5-point favorite. New York   (42-33) trails in the series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Julius Randle is struggling to score in this series. After carrying the Knicks on offense all season, he may be tired. After scoring only 14 points on 2 of 15 shooting on Friday, he is shooting only 30% from the field this season. Atlanta getting DeAndre Hunter back for the postseason after he was injured for most of the season has also played a big role as Hunter is an outstanding defender. The Hawks improved by 7.4 points per 100 possessions on defense with Hunter on the court during the regular season. New York is making only 39.9% from the field in this series. Head coach Tom Thibodeau finally made the inevitable move to put Derrick Rose in the starting lineup for Elfrid Payton who has been a +/- nightmare. Thibs also inserted Taj Gibson in for Nerlens Noel in the starting five. The downside of these moves is that the scoring punch from the Knicks’ second unit is now gone. The formula for New York to win this game is from defense — the DNA of Thibodeau’s coaching. They allowed Atlanta to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Knicks will play better on defense -- but, unfortunately for them, their 36.2% shooting percentage in Game Three is probably close to who they are in the intensity of the playoffs. They just do not have enough reliable scoring options. Yet, they can return to playing like the team that ranked fourth in the regular season by holding their opponents to scoring only 107.8 points per 100 possessions. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New York has also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. And in their last 17 games with the Total set at 200 or higher, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta’s 51.9% shooting on Friday was fueled by them margin 16 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 59% of their 3-pointers again tonight. The Hawks have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total on their home court after a win. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Hawks’ defense has improved since Nate McMillan took over in March. They have held their opponents to just 35.2% shooting from behind the arc under McMillan. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total when favored. They also have played 19 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Additionally, the Knicks have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:38 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42) in Game Six of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (26-24-11) extended this series to a sixth game with their 4-3 win in overtime on Thursday. Toronto (38-16-7) can still advance to the North Division Finals tonight given their 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens should be energized with their victory. Not only does winning this game force a climactic seventh game, but the pressure would be enormous on this Maple Leafs team. Montreal has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a win in overtime. They also have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win by just one goal against a divisional rival. The Canadiens did make things interesting after racing out to a 3-0 lead in the second period. The Maple Leafs forced overtime because of two goals scored in the third period — but Montreal has then played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period in their last game. Goalie Carey Price has had moments of his old brilliance in this series. I suspect he will play well tonight. The Canadiens return home where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 games at home as an underdog. Toronto came out flat on Thursday, apparently comfortable with their handle on the series. They will tighten up on defense tonight. I also suspect they will be very tight now that they have kept the door open for the Canadiens. The Maple Leafs have lost five straight close-out games in a playoff series going back to 2018 — they do not want to go back home for a Game Seven  (the pressure may work against them). This is a nervy game. Toronto has scored seven goals in their last two games — but they have then played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in their last two contests. The Maple Leafs go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Goalie Jack Campbell may have played his worst game in this series by allowing those early soft goals. He should play better tonight. Toronto has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Saturday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (50-24) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 130-108 victory at home against Boston as an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-38) has lost seven of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving have been the offensive juggernaut many observers expected when they joined together this season. The Nets are scoring at an incredible 140 points per 100 possession rate so far in this series against an overmatched Celtics’ defense. They made 52.3% of their shots on Tuesday while nailing 17 of their 38 shots (45%) from behind the arc. And while the Brooklyn defense has held Boston to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions, I expect their defensive efforts to wane a bit as they did in the regular season now that this series seems to be well in hand. The Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against an Atlantic Division rival. Brooklyn raced out to a 71-47 halftime lead in the game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Nets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. Brooklyn goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston should show fight in this game — and that likely means a better effort on offense after making only 42.4% of their shots on Tuesday. Returning home should help where they are making 47.2% of their shots. I am skeptical that the Celtics can do much to stop this Nets’ offense — they really missed Jaylen Brown who was one of the team’s best on-the-ball defenders. Boston ranked a middling 13th in the league in Defensive Rating during the regular season but they fall to 23rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games without Brown. The Celtics have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They also have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss to a division opponent. This team under head coach Brad Stevens rarely tightens things up on defense after a bad effort. The Over is 20-8-1 in Boston’s last 29 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Now they return home where they have played 6 straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee bone bruise. The Boston offensive attack should still be fine with Payton Pritchard playing more minutes — he averages 13.5 PPG per a 24.6 minutes rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog under Stevens. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-26) evened this series at 1-1 with their 128-109 victory as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Portland (43-31) has still won seven of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers do not have an answer on defense to Nikola Jokic — and the Nuggets were committed to exploiting this vulnerability on Monday. Jokic scored 38 points while making 15 of his 20 shots inside the arc. Head coach Michael Malone made an interesting adjustment for Game Two by having his two guards stand in the corner to create a de-facto three-on-three game which opened up space for Jokic to operate in the paint. This spacing also helped Denver convert 12 of their 28 shots from behind the arc (42.9%). The Trail Blazers are at a significant size disadvantage in this series. Michael Porter is only making 25% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the team with a 44.5% shooting mark from behind the arc during the regular season — so the scoring ceiling is higher for this team. The extra day of rest will help the Nuggets’ scoring attack — they have played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, Denver has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blazers are making 47.6% of their shots in this series along with 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and they can do more. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have combined to score 63 and 55 points in this series. The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray who provided the team’s best on-the-ball defender against opposing guards — and Will Barton is still out tonight with his injury which leaves them very thin when it comes to backcourt defensive options. Portland returns home where they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Blazers have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and Portland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Nuggets. Denver can’t cover the Blazers’ backcourt — and Portland can’t cover the Nuggets’ frontcourt. This Game Three should be a wild one. 25* NBA Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (21) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (22) in Game Five of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (25-24-11) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Four of this series on Tuesday by a 4-0 score. Toronto (38-16-6) has won the last three games in a row in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens’ lack of star power is rearing its head in this series. They have only scored four goals in this series — and they have scored just twice in the last 187:16 minutes of this series. A line with castoffs like Tomas Tatar — a left wing that should both Detroit and then Vegas was comfortable in letting go — on the top line (and being a primary scorer) demonstrates what little scoring talent this team has. Tatar would be a fine left wing on the third line of a playoff team. Playing on the road compounds the problem for Montreal since Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe can target his best defensive pair against the Canadiens’ best scoring threat line. Younger stars like second-line center Nick Suzuki or Jesperi Kotkaniemi or 5’7 rookie Cole Caufield lack experience to play dominant roles without plenty of help that this team simply does not have — and they sure do miss second line left winger Jonathan Drouin who opted-out of the postseason with a medical issue. Montreal has played 15 of their last 22 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Canadiens have not scored on their 13 Power Plays in this series. Moving forward, Montreal has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing their third game in four days. Additionally, the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a loss by at least three goals — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss by three or more goals at home. The Canadiens perhaps played too loose in Game Four to create more scoring chances — but that style also allowed the Maple Leafs to generate 10 high-danger scoring chances on Tuesday after both teams were only averaging 10.6 combined high-danger scoring chances per game in the first four games of this series. Montreal needs to go back to simply trying to grind out low-scoring games relying on Carey Price. The goalie has been solid with a 2.58 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in this series. The Under is 7-1-2 in Toronto’s last 10 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals. The Maple Leafs have also played 15 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after a win by four or more goals on the road. Toronto is getting it done without much production their superstars — Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have combined for only one point. Goalie Jack Campbell has been great with a 1.01 Goals-Against-Average and a .965 save percentage. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto will likely be quite content playing a conservative, defensive-first approach since it is getting them more comfortable for a style that has stymied them in the past when playing Atlantic Division rival Boston. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NHL 1st Round North Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (21) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five games in a row after their 107-105 victory in Madison Square Garden against the Knicks as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (41-32) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta allowed the Knicks to make 44.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. Atlanta was energized by the return of De’Andre Hunter to the court on Sunday after he missed much of the regular season to injury. Hunter is an excellent on-the-ball defender. The Hawks hold their opponents to -7.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when they have Hunter on the court. Hunter’s defense of the Knicks’ Julius Randle played a large role in his making only 6 of 23 shots from the field in Game One. Atlanta has improved on defense since Nate McMillan took over as head coach — they are third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 34.9% shooting from downtown. The Knicks has made 42.5% of their 3-pointer since the start of April which was the best mark in the league — but they only made 10 of 30 (33%) shots from behind the arc in Game One. Against this Hawks’ defense jumpstarted by the return of Hunter, I don’t see New York approaching their recent 3-point shooting numbers in this series. Atlanta’s fresh legs will only help their defensive efforts. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 5 straight Unders when playing just their second game in seven days. Additionally, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. New York allowed the Hawks to make 46.7% of their shots which tied the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 11 games. The Knicks have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.7% shooting clip even after Sunday’s game. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They are not likely to get 27 points again from Alec Burks who made 9 of his 13 shots in Game One. But head coach Tom Thibodeau should make some adjustments on defense for this contest. The Knicks have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (45) and the Edmonton Oilers (46) in Game Two of their North Division playoff series. THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (31-23-3) has won three games in a row after upsetting the Oilers in the opening game of this series on Wednesday by a 4-1 score. Edmonton (35-20-2) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jets can play tonight’s Game Two loose having already seized home-ice advantage in this series. Winnipeg has played 9 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a win on the road — and they have won 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three games in a row. The Jets have a balanced scoring attack with eight players who have scored at least 10 goals. Winnipeg expects to get second-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois back on the ice after he missed Game One — he says he is “ready to go.” Dubois had eight goals and 12 assists in his 41 games playing in a Jets’ uniform after getting traded from Columbus in late January. Winnipeg has played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the number set at 5.5 — and the Over is 9-4-2 in their last 15 road games as an underdog. Edmonton has played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least four goals in a loss to a divisional rival. The Oilers have only scored two goals in their last two games after ending their regular season with a 4-1 loss at home to Vancouver. Edmonton has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not scoring more than one goal in two straight games. Don’t expect this team led by Conner McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to continue to struggle to score goals — even against Connor Hellebuyck. They registered 3.09 expected goals — but neither star play registered a point on Wednesday. McDavid dominated the Jets in the regular season as he scored nine goals with 15 assists in nine encounters. Draisaitl added seven goals and five assists. Edmonton only had one power play on Wednesday as well — and they led the NHL with a 27.6% conversion rate on the Power Play during the regular season with McDavid and Draisaitl playing together. Head coach Dave Tippett may choose to double shift his stars tonight with them playing together on some shifts. Edmonton will score goals tonight. They have played 7 of their last 9 playoff games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 28 of their last 44 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least four goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (45) and the Edmonton Oilers (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Washington Wizards (576). THE SITUATION: Indiana (35-38) has won four of their last six games after their 144-117 win against Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite in their first game in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Washington (34-39) lost their initial Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday in a 118-105 loss at Boston as a 1.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indiana made 16 of their 35 shots (46%) from 3-point range en route to their 55.2% shooting percentage in their victory against the Pacers -- that shooting mark was the best effort in their last seven games. But Indiana has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. The Pacers have also played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a game where at least 245 points were scored. Indiana raced out to 40 points in the opening quarter against the Hornets which allowed them to control the pace and tempo of that game. But I do not expect things to be as easy tonight on the road in Washington — and I suspect the pressure of a single-elimination playoff game will negatively impact their shooting. With the Total in the high-230s, it only takes one bad quarter where they score under 25 points to ruin Over bets. I am well aware of the Over Train that Indiana has been on since they lost their defensive presence in the middle in Myles Turner. But the average combined score for the Pacers’ 26 games without Turner being 241.3 is why the over/under is so high for this game. The value is simply with the Under at this point. The Malcolm Brogdon factor makes the Under even stronger. The point guard missed all ten games in May with his hamstring injury before playing 21:20 minutes on Tuesday. He should play tonight but will not be at full strength. Two things with this. First, Indiana tends to play at a slower pace with Brogdon on the court since he is more of a traditional point guard. Second, because the Pacers will need Brodgon late in the game if the game is tight, head coach Nate Bjorkgren will likely want to not push him too much so he is still viable late in the game. Bjorkgren will still not have the services of Caris LeVert who remains out given COVID protocols. As it is, Indiana has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And while the Pacers' final regular-season game was a 125-113 victory against Toronto on Sunday, they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit wins. The Wizards are a high-scoring team that scores 116.4 PPG — but Indiana has played 35 of their last 54 road games in the second half of the season Under the Total against teams who are scoring at least 110 PPG. Washington has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points on the road. The Wizards return home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored. Washington also has a wounded guard with Bradley Beal not 100% with his hamstring.

FINAL TAKE: It sure might be tempting for bettors to take the Over after the three games between these two teams resulted in 265, 295, and 256 combined points. The Pacers allow their opponents to make 46.8% of their shots which results in 115.4 PPG — and the Wizards have played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher. Washington has also played 32 of their last 55 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Washington Wizards (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). THE SITUATION: Golden State (39-33) has won six straight games after their 113-101 win against Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (42-30) has won five in a row with their 110-98 win at New Orleans on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They go back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total. Golden State has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Steph Curry may get the most of the attention for this team but their defensive prowess has been under-appreciated. The Warriors are fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating. A slimmed-down Draymond Green has been a beast. And in the team has played better on the defensive end of the court after the season-ending injury to rookie James Wiseman as it has allowed head coach Steve Kerr to give more minutes to veterans who are better on defense. Golden State leads the league in Defensive Rating in their last 20 games which has fueled their late-season run. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Lakers play outstanding defense — they are second in the NBA by allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They also defend the perimeter by limiting their opponents to 36% shooting from 3-point land which is -1.2% below the league average. Los Angeles is in as good a position as possible to slow down Curry. Dennis Schroder is a pesky on-the-ball defender. LeBron James can play free safety amidst the Warriors’ attempts to pick-and-roll. Anthony Davis can play center in a small-ball lineup which gives Golden State another lengthy wing on the perimeter but without sacrificing Davis’ rim protection since he can defend the wing as well given his agility. Frank Vogel is an experienced defensive tactician as a head coach. And the roster is filled with veterans who have played the Steve Kerr motion offense designed to get Curry (and Klay Thompson) open looks. But the Lakers’ offense is not elite. They rank 24th in the league in Offensive Rating this season. Granted, those numbers include a large number of games where they did not have James and/or Davis. But their Offensive Rating with James on the court is 112.4 and 112.5 with Davis on the court — and both those numbers translate into just a 14th ranking in the league. Even at full strength, the Lakers’ offense is just middle-of-the-road. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State wants to avenge a 128-97 loss to the Lakers on March 15th — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road avenging a same-season loss. Los Angeles held the Warriors to only 91 points in their 26-point win on February 28th. Defending Curry is not a new challenge for the Lakers. Even if he gets his points, Curry still needs his teammates to step up. Holding the Warriors to 97 and 91 points in their last two meetings is a testament to how effective the Lakers are in frustrating Curry’s ability to cook in the Golden State offense. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W17-D8-L11) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Brighton on Saturday. West Brom (W5-D11-L20) looks to rebound from their heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Liverpool on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has played themselves out of the Champions League qualification but they remain motivated to win this match since those three points would ensure their involvement with the Europa League next season. That would be a nice accomplishment (and a source of new revenue) for the Hammers. The West Ham defense has waned as of late — they have not had a clean sheet in their last nine matches in the English Premier League. Over their last ten matches, they are allowing 1.65 expected goals per match (xGA). But the Hammers offense has been reliable to close out the season. They have scored 25 goals in their last 13 matches while posting a healthy 1.62 expected goals per match (xG). Getting Michail Antonio healthy and back on the pitch has helped. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. He has scored 14 goals in his last 14 matches on the road. West Ham has scored eight goals in their last four road matches. West Brom thought they earned a draw with last year’s EPL champs before the Liverpool keeper strode up the pitch in a desperate move to add another body in front of the net in the final moments of their match. Allison was unguarded and nailed a perfect header to give the Reds the surprise last-second victory. The Baggies are a mess on defense — the 70 goals they have allowed is five more than the second-worst defensive team in the league. With West Ham already relegated to the Championship League next season, West Brom is not likely to play cautiously in front of home fans in their final home match of the season. They have surrendered goals in five straight games. But the Baggies have scored in each of their last three games at home while totaling five combined goals during that span.

FINAL TAKE: West Brom has seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. West Ham has seen at least three combined goals scored in 61% of their matches this season — and they average 2.89 expected goals generated and allowed when the road. Both teams should score in this match in what could be a wild one. 25* English Premier League Midweek Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (563) and the Charlotte Hornets (564). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-23) has won three of their last four games with their 115-96 victory at Toronto as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Charlotte (33-36) has lost three of their last four games after their 117-112 loss at home to Denver as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-0-1 in the Clippers’ last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a win on the road. Tyron Lue’s team has tightened things up on defense as they prepare for the rigor of the postseason. They have held their last five opponents to just 101.2 Points-Per-Game on 44.0% shooting which is a significant improvement over tighter 107.8 PPG and 46.3% defensive numbers of the season. The Clippers rank seventh in Defensive Rating for the season but they are fifth-best in the NBA in their last five games. But Los Angeles is scoring just 108.4 PPG in their last five games which is -5.6 PPG below their season average. The Clippers have been an Under Machine nine straight games that finished Under the Total — but the knee-jerk contrarians should take note that they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least five straight games Under the Total. Team trends can often serve as the canary in the coal mine regarding a change in approach or effort by a team. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Charlotte has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Hornets have lost two in a row, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they lost two in a row. Charlotte has played four straight games where at least 219 combined points were scored — but they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. They stay at home where they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-7-2 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Charlotte is missing key pieces with Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges out with injuries -- that accounts for 32.0 PPG that they have been trying to replace. Additionally, the Hornets have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 125-98 score on March 20th — and Charlotte has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (563) and the Charlotte Hornets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). THE SITUATION: Miami (37-31) has won five of their last six games with their 130-124 win at Boston as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (35-33) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami raced out to 79 points in the first half on Sunday — and this rematch will likely be another track meet. Playing up-tempo basketball is what both head coaches are embracing with the postseason approaching. Erik Spoelstra likely thinks this style gives his team an edge given their deep bench. Finally healthy and having overcome the multiple COVID cases that slowed them down in the first half of the season, the Heat are scoring 121.8 PPG in their last five games while making 51.9% of their shots. Their opponents are scoring 116.2 PPG on 51.0% shooting during this span — but Miami is winning with this formula. The Heat have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 9 of their last   11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite. The Heat have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored overall — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Boston has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Celtics allowed Miami to make 57.3% of their shots — but a significant improvement on defense from this team is unlikely. The Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least 125 points — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 130 points in their last contest. Boston has also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on their home court after allowing at least 120 points in their last one. Brad Stevens may have his team play up-tempo because he does not think his team can find success relying on their defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. To make matters worse, the Celtics’ lost their best or second-best defensive player in Jaylen Brown (Marcus Smart may still be a better defender, but the gap was narrowing) to a season-ending wrist injury. They have allowed their last five opponents to score 123.2 PPG on 48.8% shooting with Brown missing the last three of those games. But Boston is scoring 123.4 PPG in their last five games on 48.6% shooting with the offense centered around Jayson Tatum. The Celtics have played 5 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. Expect more of the same. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (521) and the Memphis Grizzlies (522). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (31-33) has won two of their last three games after their 112-110 victory at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (34-33) has won two of their last three games after their 109-99 win at Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans shot 46.9% of their shots yesterday which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. They hit that number despite being without their top two offensive players in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — and both players are not expected to play tonight with Williams out indefinitely with a finger injury and Ingram dealing with an ankle. New Orleans is making only 44.3% of their shots in their last five games as they deal with not having those two scorers. To compound matters, they will also be without Steven Adams in the post with their big man doubtful with a toe injury. The Pelicans have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. New Orleans has also played a decisive 49 of their last 77 road games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. And in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest, the Pelicans have played 6 of these games Under the Total. New Orleans stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they begin a four-game homestand. They have played 34 of their last 48 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Grizzlies have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total when favored. They will be missing some of their scoring punch tonight with Grayson Allen out with an abdominal injury.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be looking to avenge a 144-113 loss at home to the Pelicans on February 16th — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. These two teams have also played 13 of their last 16 games in New Orleans Under the Total. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (521) and the Memphis Grizzlies (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (7) and the Chicago Blackhawks (8). THE SITUATION: Dallas (22-17-14) has lost six of their last seven games after their 4-2 loss at Chicago yesterday. Chicago (23-25-6) has won two in a row after their victory last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-2-4 in the Stars’ last 13 games after scoring no more than two goals in their last game. Dallas has allowed 3.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Jake Oettinger is between the pipes tonight as the Stars play out the string of a lost season that will leave them out of the postseason after reaching the Stanley Cup Finals last year. Oettinger has a 2.14 Goals-Against-Average with a .915 save percentage when playing at home — but those numbers decline to a 2.48 GAA with a .914 save percentage when he is playing on the road. Dallas has played 4 straight Overs on the road — and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 road games when favored. Additionally, the Over is 15-6-7 in the Stars’ last 28 games overall when favored — and the Over is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games when favored. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least two goals in their last game. They turn to Collin Delia in goal tonight as he makes just his fifth start and six appearances all season. He has underwhelmed with a 3.33 GAA and a .903 save percentage. The Blackhawks stay at home where they are scoring 3.3 Goals-Per-Game but allowing 3.2 Goals-Per-Game. Chicago has now played 4 straight games Over the Total at home. In their last five games, Chicago is allowing 3.8 Goals-Per-Game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now seen the Over go 22-4-1 in their last 27 games played in Chicago. Let’s trust these team trends to continue with skaters looking to pad offensive stats tonight. 25* NHL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (7) and the Chicago Blackhawks (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Chicago Blackhawks (2). THE SITUATION: Dallas (22-17-14) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 5-2 victory at Tampa Bay on Friday. Chicago (23-25-6) ended their six-game losing streak with a 2-1 overtime victory in Carolina on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-2 in the Stars’ last 7 games after a win. Additionally, Dallas is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five goals — and the Over is 5-0-3 in their last 8 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game. The Stars have been eliminated from making the postseason so their efforts may be lax on the defensive end of the ice. As it is, they are allowing 3.4 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Anton Khudobin is the goaltender tonight. He has a mediocre 2.91 Goals-Against-Average with a .908 save percentage in three starts this month. The Over is 3-1-1 in Dallas’ last 5 road games when favored — and the Over is 6-1-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after an overtime victory — and they have played 8 straight games at home Over the Total after a victory by one goal on the road. The Blackhawks have also played 6 of their 8 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Chicago has also played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Blackhawks return home where they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Over the Total after playing at least three in a row on the road. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Kevin Lankinen will be between the pipes. After a strong start to the season, the rookie has floundered in the second half of the season. He was saddled with a 3.87 GAA along with an .871 save percentage in ten starts in April before letting in five goals in his last start against Florida last Saturday. The Blackhawks are allowing 4.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Overs — the Over is 21-4-1 in the last 26 meetings between these two teams in Chicago. They last played on April 8th with Dallas winning in Chicago by a 5-1 score. The Blackhawks have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home by more than one goal. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Chicago Blackhawks (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Utah Jazz (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (44-22) has won six of their last seven games with their 113-97 victory against New York as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (48-18) has won three straight games after their 126-94 win against San Antonio as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Denver has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nuggets are a different team without Jamal Murray who is out the season with his torn ACL — and the current injuries to point guard Monte Morris and shooting guard Will Barton have left head coach Michael Malone to rely on Argentinian Facundo Campazzo to handle the point guard duties. The 30-year-old rookie is not a dynamic scoring threat — he averaged 7.9 PPG in April in his 27.1 minutes per game before averaging 11.3 PPG in his three games so far in May. Denver made only 37.8% of their shots against the Knicks — and they are making just 45.5% of their shots in their last five games which have resulted in 109.4 PPG. Those marks are far below their 115.1 PPG scoring average and 48.5% offensive numbers for the season. But Campazzo gives the Nuggets a defensive presence they need. They held New York to just 38.4% shooting on Wednesday. Denver has held their last five opponents to 103.4 PPG on 44.7% shooting which is -6.3 PPG below their season average and over two percentage points better than their defensive field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Nuggets are sixth in the NBA in Offensive Rating — but they have dropped to 16th in their last 15 games and 18th in their last 10 games in Offensive Efficiency. On the other hand, while Denver ranks 11th in Defense Rating for the season, they improve to sixth in their last 15 games and fourth in their last 10 games in Defensive Efficiency. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Utah has played 15 of their last 19 games at home after a win by at least 20 points. The Jazz made 55.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games — but they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Utah has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Jazz stay at home for their fourth straight game — they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three in a row at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They are undermanned on the offensive end tonight as well with Mike Conley out with his hamstring injury. Donovan Mitchell is out the year with an injured ankle. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Jazz will be looking to avenge a 128-117 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point road favorite on January 31st — Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Utah Jazz (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W9-D9-L16) enters this match coming off a 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Sunday. Leicester City (W19-D6-L9) is unbeaten in their last four matches after a 1-1 draw at Southampton last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle was unbeaten in their previous four matches before getting blanked by the Gunners on Sunday. The Magpies have still scored in five of their last seven matches with their attack jump-started by the return of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin who had been injured for much of 2021. They had scored eight combined goals in their previous four matches before Sunday. They have scored three combined goals in their last two matches on the road. But defense remains an issue for manager Steve Bruce. They have allowed 11 goals in their last six matches — and they have conceded the most shots in the league over that span. With Newcastle in 17th place, grabbing points in this match helps them avoid relegation with Fulham currently in danger, nine points behind the Magpies. Leicester City is perhaps playing their most important month of the season since their English Premier League title run in 2015-16. They are currently in third place in the table fighting to finish in the top four to qualify for the UEFA Champions League next season. They also have an impending FA Cup title on the line when they play Chelsea next Saturday. Manager Brendan Rodgers elevation of forward Kelechi Iheanacho into the starting XI has brought new life into the Foxes’ attack. He has scored ten goals in his last nine contests as he complements Jamie Vardy who leads the team with 13 goals. This team is so much better when Vardy has help on the attack. Harvey Barnes is injured but James Maddison is back in the mix after missing time last month after violating COVID protocols. Leicester City has scored six goals in their last three matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last five games and 19 goals in their last nine while getting blanked just once. But the Foxes have conceded goals in their last two matches as well as in five of their last seven.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen six of their last seven games at home at King Power Stadium finish Over 2.5 goals. They won the reverse fixture on January 3rd at St. James Park. Expect a similar result this afternoon. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). THE SITUATION: The Lakers (37-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 93-89 upset win against Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. The Clippers (44-22) ended their three-game losing streak with a 105-100 victory at home against Toronto as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games — and this includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total after dropping three of four this season. The Lakers have only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Lakers are the technical road team but they are playing on their shared home court with the Clippers at the Staples Center. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog at Staples. Additionally, the Lakers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They will be missing two important pieces to their offensive attack with both LeBron James and Dennis Schroder out for this game. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers made 52% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. The Clippers did not cover the point spread against the Raptors in what was the fifth straight game where they did not meet point spread expectations. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in at least four straight games. The Clippers have also played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. They are only scoring 104.4 PPG on 44.9% shooting over their last five games which is almost 10 points lower than their 114.2 PPG scoring average for the season. They have played six straight Unders — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. They have played 4 straight Unders at the Staples Center — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored at the Staples Center. The Clippers are without Serge Ibaka with his back injury and Amir Coffey who is in quarantine.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers will be looking to avenge a 104-86 loss to the Clippers on April 4th. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (17) and the San Jose Sharks (18). THE SITUATION: Colorado (34-12-4) has won three games in a row with their 5-4 win in overtime at San Jose on Monday. San Jose (20-26-6) has lost three in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 games after a win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a victory on the road where they scored at least four goals. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning at least three in a row against a divisional rival. And in their last 10 games after scoring at least five goals, the Avalanche have played 8 of these games Over the Total. Colorado has scored nine combined goals in their last two games with their 4-3 win against the Sharks on Saturday — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least nine goals in their last two games. There have been at least seven combined goals scored in four of their last six games. Philip Grubauer should be back between the pipes tonight after allowing four goals from the 27 shots he faced on Monday. Grubauer has a sparkling 2.00 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in 36 games/35 starts this season. But looking under the hood from those numbers exposes some areas of concern. He ranks tied for 16th in the league with a +0.001 save percentage above his expected save percentage in all situations — indicating he barely above average. He had a 2.92 GAA and a .891 save percentage in five starts in April before his mediocre start on Monday. Grubauer also has a 2.59 Goals-Against-Average and a .898 save percentage in 13 starts on the road. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 road games. San Jose has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing a game in overtime. The Sharks have also played 28 of their last 43 home games after scoring at least four goals in their last game. They have seen at least seven combined goals scored in five of their last seven games. They are scoring 3.4 Goals-Per-Game in their last five games while allowing 3.6 Goals-Per-Game over that span. They have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight Overs at home as an underdog. Josef Korenar gets the call tonight in goal — he has a subpar 3.21 GAA and a .896 save percentage in eight games/five starts this season. San Jose has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: San Jose has lost the last four meetings between these two teams — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge where they gave up at least four goals in those games. The Over is 19-8-2 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 encounters between these two teams when playing in San Jose. 25* NHL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (17) and the San Jose Sharks (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw hosting the Blues in the first leg last Wednesday. Chelsea advances to the Finals with a win or a scoreless draw. Real Madrid advances with a win or a draw where at least two goals are scored. A 1-1 draw after regulation time forces extra time to determine a winner (and this extra time does not impact the totals bet which is resolved after regulation time).

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid comes off a 2-0 victory against Osasuna on Saturday in La Liga action. They held Osasuna to a microscopic 0.07 expected goals in that match. Los Blancos are unbeaten in their last 19 matches while allowing only nine goals during that span. They have surrendered only three goals in their five Knockout Stage matches in the Champions League. Manager Zinedine Zidane continues to deal with injuries in their backline with Raphael Varane, Dani Carvajal, and Lucas Vazquez dealing with knocks — but Sergio Ramos and Ferland Mendy appear to be healthy again. Real Madrid managed only 0.96 expected goals (xG) against Chelsea last week which was the lowest xG mark in their last 45 matches. The Blues have held their opponents across all competitions to just 0.58 xG since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager on January 27th. Chelsea has allowed only four goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League. They come off a 2-0 clean sheet victory at home against Fulham in the English Premier League on Saturday. The Blues have conceded just five times in their last 11 games at home across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea advances to the finals with a nil-nil draw — so Tuchel will likely play very conservatively. The Blues’ last six matches in the Champions League have finished Under the Total. Real Madrid has played three straight matches and five of their last six across all competitors Under 2.5 goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match between these two teams. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (57) and the San Jose Sharks (58). THE SITUATION: Colorado (33-12-4) has won two games in a row with their 4-3 win against the Sharks on Saturday. San Jose (20-26-5) has lost two in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 4-0-1 in the Avalanche’s last 5 games after a win — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against a divisional rival. Colorado has also played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in their last game. The Avalanche has peppered their opponent's' goal with at least 31 shots in five straight games — and they have played 6 straight Overs after attempting at least 30 shots in three straight games. They have scored at least four goals in five of their last nine games. But they have allowed at least three goals in four of their last five games. Philip Grubauer is between the pipes after a disappointing April where he had a 2.92 Goals-Against-Average and a .891 save percentage in just five starts. Grubauer plays his best at home where he enjoys a 1.67 Goals-Against-Average with a .933 save percentage — but he owns a 2.47 GAA with a .920 save percentage on the road. The Over is 3-1-1 in Colorado’s last 5 games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. San Jose has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after loss by just one goal. The Sharks have now allowed at least four goals in four of their last six games. They return home where the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home as an underdog. Martin Jones is the goalie for San Jose tonight — he has a rough 3.14 GAA with a .901 save percentage when playing at home. He also comes off a disappointing April where he had a 3.20 GAA and a .896 save percentage in 11 starts. The Sharks have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: San Jose has played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. They have lost three in a row against the Avalanche — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge. The Over is also 18-8-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 encounters in San Jose. 25* NHL West Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (57) and the San Jose Sharks (58). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League with their 2-1 aggregate victory over FC Porto in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Real Madrid advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-1 aggregate win against Liverpool in the Quarterfinals. Los Blancos host this first leg at their Alfredo di Stefano Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea last played on Saturday in a 1-0 victory against West Ham United. That was the Blues’ third straight clean sheet — including a big 1-0 shutout victory against Manchester City in the Semifinals of the FA Cup. Chelsea immediately became a defensive juggernaut after Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January. In his 21 matches as the skipper, the Blues have shutout 16 of their opponents across all competitions. Besides Tuchel being a much better manager of players in making his expectations and confidence clear, he also changed tactics to a 3-4-2-1 formation. This shape gave the team extra defenders to tighten up their back end — but it also allows for Chelsea to gain an extra attacker when they go on the counter-attack. The Blues play cautiously while controlling possession. They are allowing only 0.58 expected goals allowed (xGA) since Tuchel took over. They have generated seven clean sheets in their last ten matches in the Champions League. But this conservative approach has taken some of the bite out of the Chelsea attack. They have scored only two goals in their last four matches. Real Madrid has registered four clean sheets in a row themselves after a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis in La Liga action on Saturday. Los Blancos have nine clean sheets in their last 16 matches across all competitions -- and this includes against quality competition in Atalanta, Liverpool, and Atletico Madrid in five of those clean sheets. They have only allowed two combined goals in their four matches in the knockout stage of the Champions League. But the Real Madrid attack has not been very sharp as of late as they have only scored in one of their last four matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane is dealing with several injuries that will likely compel him to engage in more conservative tactics as well. Center back Sergio Ramos has missed most of the season, and now left-back Ferland Mendy along with defensive midfielders Lucas Vazquez and Fede Valverde dealing with knocks. Zidane had midfielder Casemiro play back as almost a third center back in their second leg match against Liverpool in that 0-0 draw. He may deploy this tactic again — keeping this first leg a lower-scoring match helps Los Blancos control the potential road goals tiebreaker.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has played 18 of their 21 matches in the Tuchel regime Under 2.5 goals. While Real Madrid has played 12 of their 23 matches Under 2.5 goals in 2021, they have seen only three combined goals in their last four matches. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). THE SITUATION: Denver (38-20) has won four games in a row with their 106-105 win at Portland as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (29-30) has lost two of their last three games with their 118-114 upset loss at Washington as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They did outrebound the Trail Blazers by five boards — that was the fifth straight game where they won the rebounding battle by at least five rebounds. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after outrebounding five straight opponents by at least five rebounds. This team has been playing better on defense even amidst the crushing season-ending injury to Jamal Murray. Over their last five games, Denver ranks 10th in the league in Defensive Rating — and improvement over their ranking of 15th in that metric for the season. Head coach Michael Malone needs Monte Morris to step up at guard to help Michael Porter, Jr. fill the void that the Murray injury created — but Morris is out with a hamstring injury that leaves the Nuggets’ thin in their backcourt. Denver stays on the road where they have played 7 straight Unders against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have also played 4 straight Unders on the road as a favorite. Golden State has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have played 37 of their last 61 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the number in the 220s. Golden State is playing elite defense as of late. They have held their last five opponents to 43.8% shooting which has resulted in 108.6 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average. Additionally, the Warriors rank fourth in the NBA over their last five games and during their last ten games in Defensive Rating. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or greater — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). THE SITUATION: Everton (W14-D7-L10) settled for a draw for their third match in a row with their 2-2 result with Tottenham last Friday. Arsenal (W13-D7-L12) also settled for a draw in their last match in a 1-1 score with Fulham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Toffees are playing in a defensive posture with manager Carlo Ancelotti adapting to injuries that have riddled the cohesion of his midfield for most of the season. Everton has more than one goal just once in 11 straight matches across all competitions — and they have blanked in three of those matches. The Toffees have also produced clean sheets in three of their last 11 matches. They go back on the road where they have played four straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. Everton has failed to score in their last two road games in league play — but they have also produced three clean sheets in their last four EPL matches away from home. Arsenal will be without their top two scorers in Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who have combined to score 22 of the team’s 44 goals. Lacazette is dealing with an injury, while Aubemeyang is recovering from the Malaria he caught on the international break playing for his national team in Gabon. Manager Mikel Arteta will be relying on younger forwards for this match. The Gunners have only scored twice in their last four matches at home. But Arsenal has only allowed two combined goals in their last four matches across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Everton has seen eight of their last 11 matches see no more than two combined goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match this afternoon. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Wild (5) and the Arizona Coyotes (6). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (28-13-3) has won four in a row after their 5-2 victory at Arizona on Monday. Arizona (20-21-5) has lost six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wild have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road after a win against a divisional rival. Minnesota has also played 5 straight Overs after going unbeaten for at least three straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Wild have scored 18 goals in their last four games — and they have averaged 4.0 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. They have also allowed at least two goals in eight straight games. Cam Talbot is the goaltender once again tonight. While the veteran has a 1.86 Goals-Against-Average with a .935 save percentage when playing at home in 25 starts, those numbers decline to a 2.86 GAA with a .912 save percentage when he is playing on the road in his 13 starts. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Wild have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total after a loss by at least three goals. Additionally, the Coyotes have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games over the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Arizona has scored at least two goals in 13 of their last 14 games — but they have given up 16 goals in their last four contests. They counter with Darcy Kuemper who allowed four goals in the game on Monday. In his two starts since his return to the ice after being out for about six weeks, he has a 3.03 GAA with a .867 save percentage. The Coyotes stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least three goals. The Coyotes have lost five straight to the Wild this season — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with at least triple revenge. These two teams have played 5 straight Overs when playing at Arizona. 25* NHL West Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Wild (5) and the Arizona Coyotes (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (59) and the New York Islanders (60). THE SITUATION: The New York Rangers (23-16-6) have won four in a row with their 5-3 win at New Jersey on Sunday. The New York Islanders (28-13-4) comes off a 1-0 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played two straight Overs after defeating the Devils by a 6-3 score on Saturday. But the Rangers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing two straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. Despite these recent high-scoring games, the Rangers have not allowed more than three goals in six straight games — and they are allowing just 1.8 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Igor Shesterkin has been named tonight’s goaltender for Alain Vigneault’s team. He has a 2.28 Goals-Against-Average with a .925 save percentage in 27 games — and those marks improve to a 2.14 GAA with a .929 save percentage in his 13 games/12 starts at home. Shesterkin is tied for eighth in the NHL in save percentage above his expected save percentage (my new goalie metric of choice). The Under is 18-7-2 in the Rangers’ last 27 games on the road — and the Under is 13-3-2 in their last 18 games on the road as an underdog. The Islanders have played 6 straight Unders after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a win. The Islanders have only scored two goals in their last three games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after not scoring more than one goal in two straight games. They have scored one goal or less in five of their last seven contests — and they are averaging 1.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five. Semyon Varlamov will likely get the start tonight for head coach Barry Trotz after not playing the last two games. Varlamov has a 2.24 GAA with a .922 save percentage in 29 games/28 starts this season. He plays his best at home where he owns a 2.19 GAA with a .928 save percentage in 14 starts. The Islanders have played 5 straight Unders at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers will be looking to avenge 3-2 loss to the Islanders on April 11th — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 5 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last meetings Under the Total when playing at the Islanders’ Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. 25* NHL East Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (59) and the New York Islanders (60). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the math between Southampton (200405) and Leicester City (200406). THE SITUATION: Southampton reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup with their 3-0 win against Bournemouth on March 20th. Leicester City advanced to the Semifinals of the FA Cup a day later on March 21st with their 3-1 victory against Manchester United. This match will take place on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton is mired in 14th place in the English Premier League table but safe from relegation. Lifting an FA Cup title is the team’s line ambition at this point of the season for Ralph Hassenhuttl’s group. The Saints limp into this match coming off a 3-0 loss at West Brom Albion. Defense has been the problem for this side — they allowed a Baggies team likely destined for relegation to generate 3.07 expected goals (xG). Southampton has allowed 35 goals in their last 15 matches across all competitions. Granted, nine of those goals came in a debacle of a loss to Man United. Still, in their last four matches across all competitions, the Saints have allowed 12 goals. But Southampton has gotten their scoring attack going — they have scored 11 goals in the last five matches across all competitions. Getting Danny Ings healthy and back on the pitch makes a big difference — he has scored 13 goals in 22 matches in all competitions this season. Leicester City has lost two in a row with their 3-2 loss to West Ham last Sunday. The Foxes have allowed six goals in their last three matches in all competitions. Leicester City has scored 12 times in their last five matches. The insertion of Kelechi Iheanacho into the starting XI has provided new energy to the attack. The Nigerian is playing up to as a poacher with Jamie Vardy being relied on for more creativity. But the good news for manager Brendan Rodgers is the return of midfielder James Maddison who has been out for breaking COVID quarantine for most of the month. When Maddison is on the pitch, the Leicester City attack is at its finest since he takes much of the pressure off Vardy.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will deploy their best starting XI for this match since an FA Cup trophy would mark a successful season for both franchises. Southampton’s defensive efforts have lagged since a brief period of glory last summer during Project Restart — but they should keep it competitive with Ings healthy. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the math between Southampton (200405) and Leicester City (200406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). THE SITUATION: Golden State (28-28) has won four games in a row after their 119-101 win at Cleveland as a 6-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (30-26) has won five in a row with their 121-113 win at Los Angeles against the Lakers on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Warriors are playing their third game on the road since Monday — and they have played 8 straight Unders when playing their third game on the road in five days. They made 51.1% of their shots in Cleveland on Thursday — but they are shooting just 44.9% this season on the road. Golden State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, Golden State has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total with the Total in the 220s. Boston has made 56.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. But the Celtics have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. And while the Celtics have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Boston returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total. And they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. Brad Stevens has this team playing better defense — they rank sixth in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries may play a role in this game. Robert Williams III is out with a knee injury — and he is starting to gel with the Celtics’ Big Four starters. Jaylen Brown is now questionable with an illness. While Brown is an elite defender, those skills are not essential against the Warriors since Marcus Smart will be the primary defender on Stephen Curry. But if Brown does not play, then Draymond Green will defend Jayson Tatum without a “pick your poison” dilemma. These two teams have played 21 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Boston. The Warriors may be without Kelly Oubre who is questionable with a wrist. The Celtics won the last meeting at Golden State, 111-107, on February 2nd — and Golden State has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W16-D7-L8) enters this match coming off a 3-2 win against Leicester City last Sunday. Newcastle (W8-D8-L15) comes off a 2-1 win at Burnley last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hammers got two opening goals in the first half from Jesse Lingard who is on fire right now in the English Premier League. Lingard has scored eight goals and added three assists in his nine matches since being acquired by West Ham on loan from Man United in the winter transfer window. While he is over-performing his underlying metrics, he is still averaging 0.44 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes and 0.18 expected assists per 90 minutes. And take his over-performance with this grain of salt: Lionel Messi over-performs his metrics as well. No, Lingard is not Messi (or Messi Jr.) — but there necessarily are outlier performances that determined league-wide averages of expectation. Brighton underperforms in their expected goals because their striker, Aaron Maupay, is not very good. Lingard might be out-performing his expectations because he is simply playing better than the average player. Baseball measures this statistic a bit better with their “Wins Above Replacement Player” (WARP) number. I digress. Even without forward Michail Antonio being healthy and available, West Ham is clicking on offense right now. They have scored three goals in each of their last three matches. They have scored 20 goals in their last ten matches while averaging a robust 1.61 xG per game during that span. David Moyes’ side will need to continue this efficiency on offense given their injuries on defense. The Hammers have been without center back Angelo Ogbunna and holding midfielder Declan Rice — and they have allowed 3.58 xGA combined in their last two matches. Left-back Aaron Cresswell joins them on the sidelines for this match as he is dealing with a hamstring injury. That is not a good development for a defense that has allowed the second-most shots inside the box in their last four matches. Newcastle may be in 17th place but they lead the EPL over the last four matchweeks in expected goals in open play. They generated a whopping 4.07 xG against Tottenham two matches ago. They have scored four goals in their last two matches — yet they are still the most underperforming side in the EPL when comparing expected goals with actual goals in the last six matchweeks. If lack of talent explained that problem, help is on the way for manager Steve Bruce who saw the return of his two most talented players on offense in Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin last Sunday. They combine to average 0.69 xG per 90 minutes. But like West Ham, the Magpies are dealing with their share of injuries from key defensive players as well. Bruce will be without center backs Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schar for this match. Newcastle allows 1.54 xGA per match this season which is the fourth-worst mark in the league. And in their ten matches against teams in the top half of the table, the Magpies are allowing 2.38 xGA per contest.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have plenty at stake. West Ham is motivated to stay in fourth place to qualify for the Champions League next season. Newcastle is six points clear of relegation in 17th place — but picking up points this morning goes a long way to keep them safe which is why Bruce has them playing as openly as of late as they have all season. In a game between two teams playing with confidence on offense but with depleted defensive corps, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (47) and the Carolina Hurricanes (48). THE SITUATION: Nashville (24-19-1) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six with their 7-2 victory against Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Carolina (27-10-4) has lost two in a row with their 3-1 loss to Detroit on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 7-3-3 in the Predators’ last 13 games after a win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total playing on the road after a victory by two or more goals against a divisional rival. Nashville scored seven goals against the Lightning’s backup goalie Curtis McElhinney (rather than Andre Vasilevskiy) — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals in their last game, and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five goals in their contest. The Predators have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Nashville has a hot goaltender in Juuse Saros who stopped 21 of 23 shots against Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Saros has a 2.16 Goals-Against-Average with a .929 save percentage this season. In his six starts this month, Saros has a 1.62 GAA with a .942 save percentage. Saros is tied for fifth in the NHL this season for save percentage against unblocked shots above expected save percentage against unblocked shots. The Predators stay on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Nashville has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-2 in their last 10 games as an underdog. Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after loss at home to a divisional rival. The Hurricanes have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two in a row against divisional rivals — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They counter with Petr Mrazek who has a 1.47 GAA and a .952 save percentage in his seven starts this season which included a long stint on the shelf with an injury. In his five starts at home this season, he has a 1.47 GAA with a .952 save percentage. The Under is 7-2-2 in Carolina’s last 11 games at home as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 3-1-2 in their last 6 meetings between these two teams. Nashville looks to avenge a 5-1 loss at home to the Hurricanes — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least five goals. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (47) and the Carolina Hurricanes (48). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (33) and the Montreal Canadiens (34). THE SITUATION: Calgary (18-21-3) has won two games in a row with their 3-2 win in overtime at Toronto last night. Montreal (18-12-9) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 4-2 upset win against Toronto on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-3-2 in the Flames’ last 14 games after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games this season Under the Total after a win by just one goad. Calgary has also played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when playing their second game on the road in two days. The Flames have not made their goaltender official for tonight — but indications are that Jacob Markstrom will again be between the pipes after he stopped 24 of 26 shots last night. The big free-agent acquisition in the off-season has a 2.88 Goals-Against-Average with a .901 save percentage for the season — but he does improve to a 2.68 GAA with a .913 save percentage in his 14 starts on the road. Markstrom also has a .953 save percentage in his last two games, stopping 41 of 43, shots after his shutout win against Edmonton on Saturday. Calgary has played 5 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They are scoring only 2.2. Goals-Per-Game on the road. Additionally, the Flames have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games overall as an underdog. Montreal has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals in a victory. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Canadiens’ last 8 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They will counter with Jake Allen in goal. He has a 2.49 GAA with a .912 save percentage in 16 starts. Allen deserves better — he ranks tied for fifth in save percentage above expected save percentage in the NHL this season. Montreal stays at home where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on their home ice. The Canadiens are scoring only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. The Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games where Montreal was playing at home. Calgary has won the last three encounters, most recently in a 3-1 win at home. The Canadiens have played 7 straight Unders when avenging a loss by at least two goals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NHL North Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (33) and the Montreal Canadiens (34). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Flyers (23) and the Washington Capitals (24). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (19-16-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 5-3 loss to Buffalo on Sunday. Washington (27-11-4) has won two straight games with their 8-1 win at Boston on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Capitals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. The Washington offense is clicking right now — they are averaging 3.8 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. They have scored 12 goals in their last two games. The Capitals have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in two straight contests. The Over is also 9-1-1 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. They return home where they have played 42 of their last 61 games Over the Total. Ilya Samsonov is the goaltender tonight — he has a 2.97 Goals-Against-Average with a .894 save percentage. He has struggled in three starts this month with a 5.21 GAA and a .833 save percentage. The deeper metrics are far from bullish. He ranks 50th amongst goaltenders in the league with a .944 save percentage on unblocked shots — and is far below his expected save percentage from unblocked shots of .955. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored. Philadelphia has played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Over is 13-6-1 in the Flyers’ last 20 games after allowing at least five goals — and they have played 14 of the last 18 games Over the Total after a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. Philly counters with Brian Elliott who has a 2.87 GAA and a .894 save parentage this season. Elliott has a .939 save percentage on unblocked shots, the 56th worst mark in the league — and even farther off his expected save percentage of .951 on unblocked shots than Samsonov. Elliott also has a 3.37 GAA with a .879 save percentage in his nine games (eight starts) on the road. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Flyers’ last 26 road games as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total with the number installed at 6 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Philly will be looking to avenge a 5-4 loss at home to the Capitals on March 13th — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least five goals. These two teams have played 5 of the last 6 meetings Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* NHL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Flyers (23) and the Washington Capitals (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FC Porto (224221) and Chelsea (224222) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Chelsea won the first leg of this Quarterfinals battle with the Dragons in the UEFA Champions League. FC Porto must score at least two goals in a regulation-time victory to stay alive to advance to the semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Porto may have to play more aggressively in this second leg — but they will first have to wrestle the ball away from Chelsea, which will be much easier said than done. Since Thomas Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard for this franchise, they have become possession monsters that are controlling the ball around 65% of the time in their English Premier League matches (they were at 64.6% two EPL matches ago, which was second-best at the time before posting 58% and 59% possession marks in their most recent two EPL matches — more on that below). Tuchel switched from Lampard’s standard 4-3-3 formation to a 3-4-2-1 which has done wonders for clarifying the expectations for his players on the pitch. The results have been a more methodical and plodding style — but also one where the opponent simply does not get many counter opportunities with the Blues able to quickly get five players back on defense. The proof is in the pudding — Chelsea has had eight clean sheets in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Blues limped into their match with Porto last week coming off a 5-2 loss to West Brom — but they played with ten men for over 61 minutes of that match after Thiago was issued a red card at the 29-minute mark. While the wheels fell off on defense (for the first time under Tuchel), they still controlled possession for 58% of that match. The Blues come off a 4-1 win against Crystal Palace on Saturday. That result was a bit of an aberration as Tuchel rested most of his defensive-oriented players for this second leg. He finally played Kai Havertz at forward — and the German scored the first goal before scoring-machine (and defensive liability) Christian Pulisic scored two more goals in the easy win. The Chelsea defense was great — the Eagles just happened to score on their one shot. Havertz and Pulisic will likely be on the bench for this match. Tuchel’s plan will be to play keep-away — and he can rely on his outstanding goaltender, Eduoard Mendy. Under Tuchel in his 16 matches as the Blues’ skipper, they have a minuscule 0.53 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They have only allowed more than a goal once during that time in that outlier effort against a desperate West Brom team where they were played with a man disadvantage. Chelsea did not pressure Porto’s defense much last week despite playing on their front foot. They managed only six shots — and they completed only four passes into the penalty area. Mason Mount scored a nice clinical goal for them — but Ben Chilwell’s second goal at the 85-minute mark occurred because of a defensive mistake. The Dragons are an outstanding defensive team. The dilemma for manager Sergio Conceicao is that he prefers to have his team sit back in a defensive 4-4-2 formation with six players usually back parking the bus. Porto only had possession marks of 34% and 31% in their two Round of 16 matches against Juventus. They prefer to counter-attack — and I suspect this will be the strategy for the Dragons with the hopes they can score in this manner. Porto simply lacks scoring talent — and they risk falling behind 3-0 aggregate if they attempt to play too aggressively and out of character. Despite falling behind after 32 minutes in the first-leg, the Dragons only attempted eight shots in the match.

FINAL TAKE: FC Porto has played four of their last six matches in the Champions League Under 2.5 goals — and Chelsea has played four straight matches in the Champions League Under 2.5 goals. The Blues have also earned clean sheets in seven of their last nine matches in the Champions League. The directive for Tuchel is simple: don’t let Porto score. They simply do not need to pressure the Dragons — and Porto lacks the playmakers to counter these tactics. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FC Porto (224221) and Chelsea (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:14 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Houston (28-3) won their 11th straight game on Monday with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Baylor (26-2) won their fourth straight game with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars allowed the Beavers to make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Houston has still held their last five opponents — all teams either in or made the NCAA Tournament — to just 36.3% shooting which has translated into 55.4 PPG. The Cougars 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston has not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games — and they have played 36 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Head coach Kelvin Sampson will have his team play outstanding half-court defense. They lead the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.3%. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 29.2% shooting from behind the arc and 42.9% inside the arc — those marks rank 11th and fifth in the nation. But shooting could be an issue for Sampson. They only made 32.3% of their shots against Oregon State — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not shooting better than 33% from the field. While Houston enjoyed a 17-point lead early in the second half, they only made 29% of their shots. Now the Cougars will be playing the best defense they have encountered all season. The best team Houston has played all season is Texas Tech — and they only rank 20th nationally by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. The Cougars have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Baylor made 48.4% of their shots against the Razorbacks which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They raced out to a 46-28 lead in the first half on Tuesday — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. The Bears did allow Arkansas to make 48.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven contests. Scott Drew’s team had struggled with their defense after a three-week hiatus due to a COVID outbreak — but they have been in top form again in the Big Dance. Baylor held their three previous NCAA Tournament teams to just 41.3% shooting and 56.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Sampson will likely play this game at a very slow pace — as it is, Houston averages 19.3 seconds-per-possession which is the 331st slowest pace in the nation. Baylor was lulled into a low-scoring game with Villanova — in their 62-51 win over the Wildcats in the Sweet 16, there were only 57 possessions in that game. The Under is 13-6-1 in the Cougars’ last 20 games on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight Unders when an underdog on a neutral court. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (24-24) snapped a two-game losing streak last night with their 134-129 upset win in double-overtime at San Antonio as a 1-point underdog. New Orleans (21-26) had their two-game winning streak end last night in a 115-110 loss in overtime to Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Atlanta held the Spurs to 44.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games under new head coach Nate McMillan. The Hawks have still allowed their last five opponents to make 49.3% of their shots which has resulted in 118.0 PPG for these opponents. Atlanta has allowed at least 108 points in six straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. The Hawks have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. Atlanta’s starters logged in 193:49 minutes last night — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the day before. The Hawks have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing their third game on the road in five days. Atlanta has played four straight Overs heading into this game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. The Hawks conclude their eight-game road trip tonight — they have played straight games Over the Total on the road as an underdog. Atlanta has been hot with their shooting on this trip. They are making 49.8% of their shots in their last five games, which is generating 115.6 PPG. New Orleans only made 43.6% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. They also held the Magic to make 42.5% of their shots which is the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Pelicans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total after allowing at least 115 points in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Pelicans’ five starters played 195:54 minutes last night — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total in games when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the prior day. New Orleans has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing without rest. The Pelicans are not a good defensive team even under the guidance of a defensive head coach in Stan Van Gundy in his first year with the franchise. New Orleans ranks 28th with their Defensive Rating. The Pelicans have the seventh-best Offensive Rating in the league — and they are making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games. They have scored at least 110 points in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least 110 points in three straight games. They stay at home where they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball for tonight’s game as they are all dealing with injuries that has compelled Van Gundy to give them the night off after playing yesterday. The Pelicans have still played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored. This is a strong technical play. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (53) and the Chicago Blackhawks (54). THE SITUATION: Carolina (23-8-3) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 2-1 loss on their road against the Blackhawks. Chicago (17-15-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Carolina’s last 4 games after scoring two goals in their last game — and the Under is 3-1-3 in their last 7 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Hurricanes have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a loss by just one goal — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after a game where no more than three combined goals were scored. James Reimer should be the goaltender tonight for Carolina. He sported a 2.15 Goals-Against-Average with a .925 save percentage in six starts in March. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Hurricanes’ last 5 games on the road — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games when favored. Furthermore, the Under is 6-1-2 in Carolina’s last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago only managed 16 shots on goal on Monday in their victory The Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Rookie goalie Kevin Lankinen stopped 31 of the two 32 shots he faced on Tuesday against the Hurricanes. He has a 2.52 Goals-Against-Average with a .928 save percentage in 15 home starts this season. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Blackhawks’ last 4 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Furthermore, Chicago has now played 5 straight Unders when playing at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 4-0-1.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by just one goal. 25* NHL Thursday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (53) and the Chicago Blackhawks (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (23-8) lost in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament in an 84-62 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. Colorado State (20-7) lost to Memphis yesterday by a 90-67 score as a 4.5-point underdog. This third-place consolation game is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs allowed the Mississippi State Bulldogs to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. That mark was far above their opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.2% for the season. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Louisiana Tech ranks 77th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to ranking 30th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. However, the Bulldogs rank just 219th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their 96th rank in that metric when at home. The Under is 8-1-2 in Louisiana Tech’s last 11 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Colorado State allowed Memphis to make 55.7% of their shots yesterday which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 games. They caught a red-hot Memphis team who could not miss in the second half yesterday (one of the reasons I passed on the Tigers today). The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While the Rams rank 67th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 112th in offense when playing on the road. Colorado State has played 40 of their last 59 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Rams have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games on a neutral court Under the Total when an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). THE SITUATION: Villanova (18-6) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 84-61 win against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats were hot from behind the arc against the Mean Green — they nailed 15 of their 30 shots from 3-point land. We had Villanova in both their NCAA Tournament games last week with the belief that Jay Wright would push the right buttons to keep his offense clicking even after the season-ending injury to senior point guard Collin Gillespie. Wright has responded by running the offense through 6’9 forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who has averaged 20.0 PPG with 8.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this tournament. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats are going to launch 3s as they play the role of spoiler — a rare role for this program under Wright. Villanova is 27th in the nation by attempting 45.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Wright will likely think his formula for success is to out-shoot the Bears since his team ranks 221st nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.2%. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Baylor has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. But the play of Scott Drew’s defense remains a concern. The three-week COVID pause in February stunted the development of his team’s play on that end of the court. Since February 1st, the Bears rank 111th in Adjusted Net Defense which is a big drop-off from their 41st ranking overall this season in that metric. After not allowing more than 69 points in all eight of their Big 12 games before February 2nd, Baylor has surrendered at least 70 points in their next five conference games (and six of seven heading into the NCAA Tournament). The numbers have been better against Hartford and Wisconsin in the Big Dance, but that might speak more about those teams than the quality of the Bears’ defensive play. But Baylor will keep scoring — while five of their last ten opponents have shot at least 47.5% from the field, they have made at least 50.8% of their shots in five of those ten games. The Bears average 84.2 PPG behind an offense that ranks third nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor has played 12 of the last 14 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in Big Dance — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (22-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 110-108 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite. Golden State (22-23) has lost three in a row with their 141-119 loss at Sacramento as a 4.5-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks lost to the Kings despite making 48.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Atlanta makes only 45.3% of their shots on the road. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Atlanta had been on an eight-game winning streak since they named Nate McMillan their head coach. He made an immediate impact in improving the play of the team’s defense after being elevated from an assistant coach for Lloyd Pierce. In the ten games under McMillan’s command, the Hawks rank fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating — a big improvement over their 18th ranking for the season. Over their last five games, Atlanta has held their opponents to 104.6 PPG on 44.4% shooting representing a -6.1 PPG improvement over the 110.7 PPG they are allowing for the season. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots last night — even without Stephen Curry — which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Warriors also allowed the Kings to make 59.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Golden State has played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing without rest. The Warriors have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State remains without Curry who is out with a bruised tailbone. The Warriors are making only 44.6% of their shots in their last five games with the last three without Curry. They are scoring 108.8 PPG during that span which is -3.9 PPG below their season average. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Title as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors were without Draymond Green and Eric Paschall last night with both out feeling ill after getting their COVID shot. They are questionable for tonight. The Hawks traded Rajon Rondo for Lou Williams yesterday but the high-scoring guard is not likely to be ready to play for his new team tonight. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Golden State. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (22-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-61 upset victory against Mississippi as a 3-point underdog last Friday. Western Kentucky (21-7) has won four of their last five games after their 69-67 upset victory against Saint Mary’s as a 2-point underdog last Wednesday. This NIT Quarterfinals game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs reached the Quarterfinals with their win against Ole Miss despite allowing them to make 40.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Louisiana Tech has held their last five opponents to just 38.4% shooting along with 61.6 PPG which is -2.9 PPG below their season average. They have allowed 61 and 54 points in the last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Bulldogs’ last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while that game finished above the 129.5 point total, Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The home/road splits are striking for this team. While they rank 93rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they plummet to 236th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. And while they rank 77th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they skyrocket to ninth-best in defense when playing on the road. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against Conference USA opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Western Kentucky outlasted the Gaels despite allowing them to make 48% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 17 games. The Hilltoppers have still held their last five opponents to 40.5% shooting which has resulted in just 62.4 PPG in their last five games which are -5.5 PPG below their season average. They are scoring only 66.0 PPG in these previous five games which are -7.0 PPG below their season average — a 41.4% shooting mark explains the decline. Western Kentucky have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Hilltoppers have also palled 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Additionally, Western Kentucky has played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against conference foes — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Hilltoppers have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is looking to avenge a 63-58 loss at home to the Bulldogs on January 9th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (30-13) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 101-100 victory at New York as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Golden State (22-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 111-103 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Expect a lower-scoring game between teams who are both dealing with missing key players. The 76ers are without both Joel Embiid and Seth Curry tonight as both battle knee injuries. Philly will miss Curry’s outside shooting. And the Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris-led Sixers are playing better on defense with Embiid on the shelf. The 76ers have held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting and just 101.8 PPG which is 7.9 PPG below what they are allowing for the season. Philadelphia has played four of their last five games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival. The Sixers have also played four straight games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Golden State was without Steph Curry on Saturday as he deals with a tailbone injury. The Warriors made only 34.4% of their shots against the Grizzlies without Curry. Curry is out again tonight — so Golden State lacks a reliable scorer. As it is, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State should have fresh legs for their defensive efforts tonight — they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while the Warriors have attempted at least 90 shots in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Head coach Steve Kerr does get some reinforcements back with Kevon Looney, James Wiseman, and Eric Paschall back from quarantine. Kerr needs the bigs — and this should help their interior defense while freeing up Draymond Green to defend either Harris or Simmons. Golden State may play at a slower pace tonight since they do not have to resort to up-tempo small-ball with all their bigs on the shelf. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-13) has won two of their last three games after their 63-54 win against UConn as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama (25-6) has won seven in a row with their 68-55 victory against Iona as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland Unders have been very for us over the last few weeks when the Terrapins have away from College Park. They offer the valuable combination of being undervalued on defense when playing on the road while being overvalued on offense. While Maryland ranked just 94th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to eighth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.2 PPG on 39.1% shooting even after Michigan torched them at a 51.7% clip in the Big Ten tournament. They rank 10th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 23rd ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 83rd in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.2 PPG on the road on 42.7% shooting which is -6.4 PPG below their season average. This foundation does not make us zombies to Maryland Unders moving forward — the circumstances warrant the play. The Terrapins continued to play tough defense by holding the Huskies on Saturday to just 32.3% shooting — that was the eleventh time this season they held an opponent under 60 points. But Maryland overachieved on offense by nailing 51.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They are due for some regression on that front. The Terrapins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. Alabama made 47.2% of their shots in their win against the Gaels which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Even better, Nate Oats’ team shares the same identity as Maryland in that they play better defense but sees their offensive efficiency decline when playing on the road. Alabama is 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they are third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. But while the Tide are 32nd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 60th nationally in that metric on the road where they make only 41.8% of their shots. The Crimson Tide’s defense is trending in the right direction after holding Iona to just 39.0 shooting. Alabama’s last five opponents are averaging 65.8 PPG on 39.4% shooting from the field.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. The Terrapins have also played 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 79-66 win against Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog last Friday. UConn (15-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 59-56 upset loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland allowed the Wolverines to make 51.7 % of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 14 games. The Terrapins were second in the Big Ten by allowing only 65.0 PPG on 40.9% shooting — so they should play better on that end of the court tonight. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit loss to a Big Ten opponent. The Terrapins have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Maryland ranked just 95th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to ninth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.4 PPG on 39.5% shooting even after what Michigan did to them. They rank 14th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 25th ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 96th in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.1 PPG on the road on 42.1% shooting which is -6.7 PPG below their season average. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UConn had played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. And while the Huskies had covered five games in a row before their upset loss to the Bluejays, they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. UConn led the Big East by allowing only 64.6 PPG — and they held ten opponents to under 60 points. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. And while they ranked 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 5th best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But UConn only makes 40% of their shots on the road which results in 67.7 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I expect this game to be a slog between two head coaches who prefer slow, grinding games at the core of their coaching DNA. The Bruins held the Beavers to 42.9% shooting in their overtime loss last week. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. And while the Total was at 133 in their loss to Oregon State, UCLA has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Head coach Mick Cronin lost a piece on offense with Jalen Hill not playing in this tournament for personal reasons. He only scores 6.1 PPG but he crashes the offensive glass for the Bruins. Their leading scorer, Johnny Juzang, has not been at 100% after missing the USC game and playing only 24 minutes against the Beavers. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Michigan State (15-12) has played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that did not see more than 125 combined points scored. The Spartans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Michigan State has played six straight Unders under head coach Tom Izzo, they have then played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Spartans really miss Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of this shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State is scoring only 59.8 PPG with a 38.6% shooting percentage in their last five games. But the Spartans did see their scoring defense improve by more than 4 PPG in these last five games as they have held those opponents to 66.4 PPG. The Spartans do have the length with their guards to present problems for Bruins’ point guard Tyger Campbell. Michigan State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Spartans have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has played 4 straight NCAA Tournament games Under the Total in the Izzo era. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 match. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg between these two teams on February 24th by a 2-0 score. Borussia Monchengladbach must win by two goals in this second leg to advance — and a 2-0 win would trigger extra-time with both teams even the goal differential and away-goals tie-breakers. This match is being played on a neutral field in Budapest given travel restrictions Germany impacting Monchengladbach.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City got back playing their stingy defense on Saturday in a 3-0 victory at Fulham. The Cityzens held the Cottagers to just 0.26 expected goals (xG). Man City had conceded goals in their previous four EPL matches but manager Pep Guardiola has been aggressively rotation his starting XI over the last month with the English Premier League title likely in hand. The main priority for this club has shifted to winning the Champions League which is an accomplishment that has eluded Guardiola in his tenure here. He rested several key players on Saturday — so this is the A-Team today. Man City is at their best defensively when John Stones and Ruben Dias are paired at center-back. They were together on Saturday and they should form the heart of a four-player backline today. Since a loss to Tottenham in December, the Cityzens have conceded just 0.67 xGA (expected goals allowed) in 22 EPL matches. In their seven Champions League matches this season, Man City has an xGA of 0.31 with six straight clean sheets. Some of this is a result of tactics: Guardiola has reeled-in much of his aggressive pressing attack this season given early-season injuries in the back and facing the reality of a compressed fixture schedule that would challenge the fitness of his players. Pep can’t help but love the new defensive identity of his team. I considered taking Man City minus the goal-line — but the Cityzens are not blowing out teams. They have not scored more than three goals in eight of their last ten matches across all competitions. Guardiola is content with clean sheet wins. Borussia Monchengladbach is a mess with six straight losses. Die Fohlen has folded ever since manager Marco Rose announced that he was leaving for rival Borussia Dortmund at the end of the season. This slide has some whispering that Dortmund may have overreached with the hire — and this dynamic persuaded me to conclude that Rose will not risk playing aggressively since that could result in an embarrassing loss. Look for Monchengladbach to be pragmatic — and this has been their tactical approach as of late. In their last six matches in the Bundesliga, they have produced just 6.54 xG — but they have conceded only 6.53 xGA. That defensive mark is sixth-best in the German top-flight over that span which is better than their 8th best mark defensively for the season. They recently played to 1-0 losses to top-six teams Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund — and I think that is a hint to how Rose will play this match.

FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach only allowed 10 shots in the first leg to the Cityzens with Man City managing just 1.5 xG. But Die Fohlen only managed three shots resulting in 0.20 xG. Man City has seen under 3.5 combined goals in five of their last seven Champions League matches and ten of their last 18 EPL contests. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630) in the championship game in the Western Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (12-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 78-62 win against Utah Valley State as a 6-point favorite last night. Grand Canyon (16-6) has won three of their last four games with their 81-47 win against Seattle as a 6.5-point favorite last night. The WAC tournament is being played at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Mexico State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Aggies have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread when laying the points in two straight games. New Mexico State is improving on defense last in the season after holding the Wolverines to just 29.8% shooting last night. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.7% shooting which is limiting these foes to only 59.2 PPG. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Grand Canyon made 50% of their shots last night which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Antelopes have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Grand Canyon is also playing their best defense of the season in March after holding Seattle to just 28.3% shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.8% shooting which has produced only 60.8 PPG. The Antelopes have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Grand Canyon has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Antelopes have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Grand Canyon swept the two games in the regular season — and New Mexico State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (15-9) won their second game in a row along with their sixth in their last nine contests with their 61-55 win against Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite last night. Louisiana Tech (21-6) has won six in a row with their 75-69 win against FAU as a 7-point favorite yesterday. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green Under last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 58th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green allowed the Monarchs to make 44.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. North Texas are sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 79th nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. They only made 38.2% of their shots last night. In their last five games, they are averring only 64.2 PPG while making 43.8% of their shots — a drop off of more than six PPG from their season average where they are making 48.2% of their shots. The Mean Green have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, North Texas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. And in their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while last night’s game finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bulldogs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. Louisiana Tech ranks 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they improve to 24th nationally in that metric on the road. But while they rank 91st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that mark plummets to 240th when on the road. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech will be looking to avenge a 57-55 loss to the Mean Green in Denton on February 6th. The Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders when playing with revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (14-9) defeated Middle Tennessee last night, 76-56, as a 15.5-point favorite in their opening game of this tournament. Old Dominion (15-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 60-57 loss at Western Kentucky as a 7-point underdog. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 57th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green held the Blue Raiders to just a 34.0% field goal percentage last night. North Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 11 games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas plays excellent half-court defense. They rank 27th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.4% — and by holding their opponents to just 44.9% shooting inside the arc, they rank 21st in the nation. The Mean Green are also sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 71st nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. They made 54.5% of their shots last night which is the best shooting mark in their last four games — yet it is due for regression tonight. North Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Old Dominion has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Monarchs only made 38.9% of their shots but that continued a disturbing trend for them when playing away from home. Old Dominion ranks 138th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they drop to 236th in that metric on the road. But simultaneously, their defense improves when playing away from home where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as compared to their 164th ranking when playing at home. And in their last five games, the Monarchs have held their opponents to just 61.6 PPG on 37.8% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion has played 40 of their last 52 games on a neutral court Under the Total — including 10 of their last 11 games in tournament action. They have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. North Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on a neutral court when favored. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Niagara (80-10) takes the court again for the first time since February 21st when they had their two-game winning streak snapped at home to Siena by a 66-61 score as a 5-point underdog. Marist (12-8) won their third in a row on March 1st in a 65-52 win against Quinnipiac as a 2-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Purple Eagles to be rusty in facing live competition for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest between games. They allowed Siena to make 50% of their shots the last time out so tightening up on defense will be a priority. Niagara has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival including six of those eight situations this season. The Purple Eagles struggle to shoot the basketball away from home. While they rank third in the conference and 166th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to sixth in the conference and 280th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. They have an effective field goal percentage of 42.9%, ranking 335th in the nation, when playing in true road games or on neutral courts. And they choose to get back on defense rather than crash the glass — they are 287th in the nation by rebounding only 22.7% of their missed shots on the road. They average only 59.7 PPG away from home with a 37.5% field goal percentage. They do hold teams to just a 42.4% shooting percentage on the road. While ranking 285th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark does improve to 235th in the nation when playing on the road. Niagara has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to three points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. And in their last 5 games against tams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-1. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 games under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Foxes can play some defense — they are 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking 18th in the nation. They allow 64.4 PPG when playing away from home on 39.7% shooting. Marist has played 4 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. But while the Foxes rank sixth in their conference and 276th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 321st in the nation and tenth in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Over their last five games, they are scoring only 59.2 PPG on 39.7% shooting — but they are allowing just 58.2 PPG on 34.6% shooting from the field. Marist has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Niagara won the last meeting between these two teams on January 2nd by an 86-76 score — and Marist has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102) in the Quarterfinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-20) snapped a twelve-game losing streak last Friday in an 82-59 win at Mississippi Valley State as a 10.5-point favorite. Jackson State (11-5) has won eleven in a row with their 79-54 win against Alabama State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SWAC tournament is being played at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Lions nailed 53.3% of their shots last Friday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. Yet Arkansas-Pine Bluff is just 333rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 345th nationally by making just 41.9% of the shots inside the arc. The Golden Lions have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while their victory on Friday finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing an Over. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the SWAC while ranking 258th nationally in that metric. But when playing away from home, they plummet to eighth in the SWAC and 331st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make only 39.6% of their shots inside the road away from home, ranking 345th while averaging just 58.9 PPG on 37.0% shooting. But, their defensive performances have been better on the road where they rank 8th in the SWAC and 333th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — not great numbers but better than their 10th ranking in the conference and 343rd mark nationally when at home. The Golden Lions have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Jackson State made 54.5% of their shots last Saturday in what was their best shooting performance of the season. The Tigers have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory against a conference rival. Jackson State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. I was pleasantly surprised to discover upon my deep dive that the Tigers have the second-lowest effective field goal percentage of 43.3% in the nation. They also limit their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc, ranking fourth in the nation, so it is going to be very difficult for the Golden Lions to score easy baskets. Jackson State has held their last five opponents to just 52.0 PPG on 38.2% shooting — and they have not allowed even 60 points in six straight games. The Golden Lions have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. But scoring is the problem for this team as they rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They score only 60.1 PPG on the road on 38.5% shooting. They have played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Jackson State has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Jackson State swept the two regular-season games this season — defeating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a 64-58 score on March 1st after beating them 63-55 on February 1st. The Golden Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB SWAC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W9-D6-L12) snapped a nine-game winless streak with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday. Man City (W20-D5-L3) saw their 28-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday in a 2-0 loss at home to Manchester United.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring the two goals against the Blades, the Saints’ offensive attack has been stagnant this season. They had only scored five goals in their previous nine matches before scoring twice on Saturday. But it was not all good news for manager Ralph Hassenhuttl as his leading scorer, Danny Ings, suffered a muscle injury that will keep him out at least a month and perhaps the rest of the season. Ings leads the team with eight goals. The Southampton attack has overachieved even with their 33 goals in 27 matches. Their expected goals mark (xG) is sixth-worst in the league and their average below 1.0 non-penalty expected goals per game. The Saints have probably deserved better on defense — while they have allowed 44 goals, their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) drops to 38.44 this season. They have surrendered 28 goals in their 14 matches on the road — but their xGA plummets to 23.47. Against this Man City juggernaut, Hassenhuttl will likely keep his team compact in their 4-4-2 system while rarely pushing into their 4-2-2-2 pressing formation. Man City looked out-of-synch against the Red Devils in Sunday’s Manchester Derby. The toll of the COVID season with a crammed fixture schedule may finally be taking its toll on this team that likely has the EPL championship locked up. The Champions League becomes the focus for this team — so here comes Pep Roulette from manager Pep Guardiola regarding resting players. I waited to release this play on the announcement of his starting XI. His lineup lacks a true forward with both Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero on the bench — Phil Foden may be playing the “false nine” spot. Raheem Sterling also is on the bench which leaves a bunch of their firepower on the bench. The mix of midfielders remain talented — but they have not played a ton of minutes together so cohesion is an issue. I am not worried about the stout Man City defense despite them conceding goals in three straight matches. They surrendered a goal to Wolverhampton last week despite posting a tiny xGA of 0.40 in that match. They have still only given up seven goals in their last 17 EPL matches with ten clean sheets. The improved defensive play from the Cityzens has been generated from both an influx of new talented defensive backs and a less-aggressive pressing approach — both of those dynamics will be in play for this match.

FINAL TAKE: Man City won the reverse fixture on December 19th by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (11-10) advanced to the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship Game with their 66-60 upset win at Wagner as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bryant (15-5) reached the championship game with an 85-55 win against Sacred Heart as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made 47.8% of their shots on Saturday — but they have just a 42.7% shooting percentage on the road which generates 63.0 PPG. Mount St. Mary’s is much better on the offensive end of the court when playing at home where they rank 237th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in conference action. When playing away from home in true road games (not including neutral courts), their adjusted offensive efficiency plummets to 305th nationally and ninth in Northeast Conference play. Yet the Mountaineers tighten up on defense when playing on an opponent’s home court — they rank 127th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on the road which is a bit better than their 133rd ranking in that metric when playing at home. The team trends validate this observation. Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. The Mountaineers have also played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total in the 130s. Mount St. Mary’s has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have covered the point spread in their last three games while not allowing more than 65 points in those contests. The Mountaineers have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They hold their conference opponents to 60.9 PPG on 39.3% shooting. Bryant made a season-high 63.6% of their shots on Saturday in the win — but not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also played their best defensive game of the season in terms of the opponent’s field goal percentage but that is an effort that is more likely to carry over tonight. Bryant has held their last five opponents to just 37.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.6 PPG — as compared to their 74.9 PPG and 41.0% opponent’s marks for the season. The Bulldogs’ defense has improved but we are still getting value with the number. Bryant has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a home win against conference rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They host this game where they rank 124 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency as compared to playing on the road where their adjusted defensive efficiency drops to 196th in the nation. But get this: Bryant’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 159th at home but improves to 99th nationally on the road. This is a team that plays better defense but worse offense on their home court. The team trends bear this out as well. They have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total including six of their eight home games this season. They have also played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: I am extra cautious before investing in games from lower-tier conferences — but we have good sample sizes in March (even with COVID cancellations) and the evidence far exceeds my minimum expectations for this situation (after doing the deep dive work as this Report hopefully demonstrates). A final touch: Bryant has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s while Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the over/under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (14-10) has won three in a row after their 76-65 win against North Dakota as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. South Dakota State (16-6) has also won three in a row with their 84-71 victory against Nebraska-Omaha. This game is being played at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls in a semi-home game for the Jackrabbits given the proximity to their campus.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles made only 44.8% of their shots yesterday which was tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Oral Roberts has played 40 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while that game finished below the 154 point total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing an Under. This is the Golden Eagles’ second game since last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their second game in a week. They are scoring 84.0 PPG in their last five games — and their combined scores in their last five games are +4.1 points above their season average. Additionally, Oral Roberts has played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog. South Dakota State made 53.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This is the Jackrabbits’ second game since last Saturday — not only have they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days but they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. They are making 57.1% of their shots over their last five games — but they are allowing their last five opponents to make 47.1% of their shots which is a few notches above their 43.1% defensive field goal percentage. They have scored at least 84 points in their last two games — and they have then played 26 of their last 39 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Jackrabbits have also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their 7 games Over the Total when favored on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts will be looking to avenge a 95-80 loss to South Dakota State on February 14th — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (15-9) advanced to the Semifinals of the MVC tournament yesterday with their 53-43 win against Evansville as a 6.5-point favorite. Loyola-Illinois (22-4) won their fourth in a row yesterday with a 73-49 win against Southern Illinois as a 17-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ramblers scored more than 65 points for the first time since February 13th yesterday — it had been five straight games since they had topped that threshold. They made 47.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Loyola-Illinois is still making only 41.1% of their shots over their last five games which is generating just 60.4 PPG over that span. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days on the road. Loyola is an elite defensive team that has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home in true road games or on neutral courts — they are allowing 57.3 PPG on 40.1% shooting in those 13 games. They have not allowed more than 58 points in 16 straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. The Ramblers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Indiana State made 40.4% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games.  The Sycamores have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana State has played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day between games. They have held their last five opponents to 59.8 PPG. The Sycamores are 71st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 63rd when playing away from home. But while they rank 187th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 217th in their true road games or games played on a neutral court. Indiana State has played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams play at a slow pace — the Sycamores average 68.1 possessions-per-game away from home while the Ramblers average 65.8 possessions (319th nationally) away from home. The local Noon PM ET tip won’t help the shooting. And while Indiana State will be looking to avenge a 58-48 loss at home to Loyola on January 11th, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). THE SITUATION: Maryland (15-10) has won five games in a row with their 73-55 win against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northwestern (7-14) snapped a 13-game losing streak last Thursday with a 67-59 upset win at Minnesota as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins made 48.8% of their shots against Sparty which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a Big Ten foe. The final score finished below the 134 total — and the Terrapins have played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is Maryland’s second game since February 21st — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight or more days. Head coach Mark Turgeon has his team sacrifice offense rebounds of getting back on defense — they rank 323rd in the nation by pulling down only 21.5% of their missed shots. The Terrapins have rebounded only three and six boards in each of their last two games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than nine offensive rebounds in two straight games. Maryland now goes back on the road where they have striking home/road splits. When playing at home, the Terrapins rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 95th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But when playing on the road, Maryland sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plumes to 104th in the nation — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency skyrockets to 15th best nationally. The Terrapins have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. Turgeon has his team playing great defense — they have the sixth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over their last ten games. In their last five games, Maryland has held these opponents to 58.8 PPG on 35.9% shooting. The Terrapins have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Northwestern has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also played 31 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, Northwestern has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after beating a Big Ten foe. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 40.6% shooting. But while the Wildcats rank 88th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 157th nationally when playing at home. The Under is 15-5-1 in Northwestern’s last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats only made 42.2% of their shots in their upset win over the Gophers — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Northwestern is scoring only 62.0 PPG in their last five games on 40.1% shooting which is far below their 71.5 PPG and 43.7% marks for the season. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range.

FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog — and Maryland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654) in the Quarterfinals of the Horizon League tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (9-11) snapped a five-game losing streak last Thursday in the opening round of the Horizon League tournament with their 84-72 win against IUPUI as a 4-point favorite. Wright State (18-5) plays for the first time since February 20th when they won at Northern Kentucky, 77-71, as a 9-point favorite. The Raiders host this tournament game.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phoenix have played eight straight Overs after their win in the Horizon League tournament last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Phoenix are playing definitively better on offense. While they rank 200th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season, they climb to 144th nationally when assessing their performance in their last ten games. They are scoring 83.4 PPG over their last five contests which is +8.3 PPG above their season average. But they are also allowing 85.6 PPG in these last five games which are +9.9 PPG above their season defensive average. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Wright State has played 26 of their last 42 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in at least two straight. I did have initial concerns about the Raiders’ long layoff — but they probably will not shoot worse than the 43.5% clip they managed against the Norse in their last game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Wright State may be cold in the first half — but don’t give up on the Over until this one is over! The Raiders will get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they pull down 34.3% of their missed shots which is the 25th best mark in the nation. This is a great shooting team — they make 37.2% of their 3-pointers, 35th nationally, and 53.8% of their shots inside the arc, 45th nationally — and playing on their familiar home court without a full house should help them get back into rhythm. I am playing more Overs this season without fans in the stands — and they are playing a Phoenix team that ranks 321st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers. Let’s trust the Horizon League’s second-most efficient offense to figure it out — and they will have fresh legs. Wright State has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number in the 150s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Defense has been a concern as of late — they are allowing 74.4 PPG on 45.0% shooting in their last five games which is well above the 66.3 PPG and 40.0% they allow for the season.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 92-82 loss at Wright State on February 13th — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The Phoenix has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 80 points. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). THE SITUATION: Denver (18-15) has won two of their last three games with their 126-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (15-17) had their three game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 106-97 loss at home to Phoenix as 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best game on defense in their last eight contests by holding the Thunder to just 42.0% shooting from the field. They are still allowing their home hosts to make 48.2% of their baskets which is resulting in 111.6 PPG. But Jamal Murray has been finding some of the form he enjoyed in the bubble when he led Denver to the Western Conference Finals. He scored 26 points on Saturday — and he is averaging 30.1 PPG in his last nine games. The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets have also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game. Denver is scoring 116.4 PPG over their last five games on 49.6% shooting. They have scored at least 110 points in six straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. They stay on the road where they  have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, Denver has played 9 of these games Over the Total. Chicago shot 49.4% from the field on Friday in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Over their last five contests, the Bulls are making 52.7% of their shots which is generating 115.4 PPG in first-year head coach Billy Donovan’s up-tempo offense. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They stay at home where they are allowing their guests to score 114.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Bulls have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Western Conference foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 19 of their last 26 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games played in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (21-11) has won four of their last five games with their 106-97 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (7-27) has lost seven games in a row with their 128-112 loss at Washington as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 50% of their shots on Friday yet it was the lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. This Phoenix offense is clicking — they are averaging 123.8 PPG over their last five contests on 52.5% shooting. The Suns have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Phoenix has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Suns have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 21 games after playing at least two in a row against Eastern Conference opponents, Phoenix has played 17 of these games Over the Total. This is the Suns’ sixth game since February 19th — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their sixth or more game in a ten-day span. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. The Timberwolves have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. New head coach Chris Finch will likely want to address the play of his defense but he lacks short-term fixes. The T-Wolves have allowed their last five opponents to score 117.8 PPG on 47.0% shooting. Playing without a day off certainly will not help  — and Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing the second game in back-to-back days. After being on the road for four straight games, they return home for the first time since February 19th — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Timberwolves have also played 27 of their last 40 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Over the Total. Phoenix should approach 120 points in this one which should carry the final score into the high 220s (or more). 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (12-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-71 loss at South Dakota yesterday. South Dakota (13-9) has now won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 40.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They did nail 10 shots from behind the arc after making 11 shots from 3-point range in their previous game against South Dakota State — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after making at least 10 shots from 3-point range in two straight contests. They should shoot better this afternoon playing in the same gym for the second-straight day. As it is, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, North Dakota State has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite of up to 3 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range. The Bison have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. South Dakota has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Coyotes’ 47.2% shooting percentage was their lowest in three games — so they should shoot as well or better. But holding the Bison to 40.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. South Dakota has now played 4 straight games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Coyotes average 83.0 PPG on their home court on 52.0% shooting. But their defense is faltering as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.3% of their shots which is generating 82.8 PPG. South Dakota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Dakota State has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (13-6) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday in a 65-55 win against Georgia Southern as a 6-point favorite. Troy (10-14) has lost five in a row after their 65-53 loss at Georgia State as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chanticleers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Coastal Carolina has played six straight Unders — and not only have they played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. The Chanticleers have the second-best defense in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 37.1% shooting from the field — as compared to their 67.0 PPG and 39.2% opponent’s offensive marks for the season. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.8% of their shots. Coastal Carolina has played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Chanticleers have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when playing a team with a losing record. Troy has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Trojans have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Troy has also played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. They return home where they have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Sun Belt play. They hold their guests to 36.7% on their home court which is resulting in only 59.7 PPG. The Trojans only hit 41.6% of their shots at home. Troy has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Trojans can struggle to score — they are averaging only 60.8 PPG on 39.7% shooting in their last five games. Troy has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Troy will be playing with revenge from a 70-65 loss at Coastal Carolina on January 23rd as a 10-point underdog. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. Troy also lost the January 22nd meeting between these two teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (15-4) has won six games in a row after their 89-66 win against Rice as a 9.5-point favorite back on February 13th. Houston (18-3) has won three of their last four games with their 90-52 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hilltoppers made 56.5% of their shots against the Owls after shooting 50.9% from the field in their previous game at home against Rice. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning two in a row on their home court. Western Kentucky has also played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after two wins in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total (146.5 versus Rice 2/13). The Hilltoppers may be rusty on offense with the almost-two-week layoff. As it is, they have only scored 64.6 PPG on 38.4% shooting in their last five games which is almost 5.0 PPG below their season average. And while they rank 103rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 149th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But their defense travels — Western Kentucky ranks 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to their 132nd ranking  when playing at home. They hold their home hosts to 41.8% shooting. The Hilltoppers have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road — including seven of their last nine games. They also have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Cougars also held the Bearcats to just 30.0% shooting. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Houston ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2%. The Cougars have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing at home where they limit their opponents to just 34.1% shooting and 54.2 PPG. Houston has played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 38-14-1 in the last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 16-5-1 in the Cougars’ last 22 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and Western Kentucky has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (13-6) has won three in a row with their 75-67 win against Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (10-8) has won three in a row as well with their 66-65 upset win against Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orange only made 43.5% of their shots against the Fighting Irish but still rallied from a 20-point deficit to win that game. Syracuse has then played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after a win. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Jim Boeheim’s team does not fit his typical profile — they are much better on offense than they are on defense. The Orange ranks 38th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 29th nationally in this metric when playing on the road. Yet Syracuse is only 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 186th in the nation in this metric when playing away from home. Boeheim’s 2-3 zone is not working this season — and it remains as vulnerable as ever to offensive rebounding with the open space around the rim it leaves vulnerable. Not only do the Orange allow their opponents to pull down 31.1% of their missed shots, 279th nationally, but home teams are getting second-chance scoring opportunities in a whopping 37.5% of their missed shots which is 340th in the nation. Syracuse has played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They are allowing 78.0 PPG when playing on the road. And while the Orange have played three straight Unders, the Orange have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Additionally, Syracuse has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog. Duke has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 straight home games Over the Total after a win against an ACC rival. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Blue Devils shot 51.0% from the field against the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Duke is averaging 79.0 PPG over their last five games on 52.5% shooting over that span — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. While the Blue Devils have been pilloried for being one of the blue blood programs suffering a down season, they have under the radar regarding how good they are on offense. They rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 10th in the nation in that metric over their last ten games to demonstrate they do not miss freshman Jalen Johnson who left the team. But Duke struggles on the end of the court as they rank just 135th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Blue Devils’ last 26 home games including eight of their last ten home games finishing Over the Total. Duke has also played 7 straight games Over the Total at home against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Blue Devils pound the offensive glass as well to take advantage of their missed shots against the Boeheim 2-3 zone — they rebound 33.6% of their missed shots at home, 67th nationally. Duke has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number in the 140s — and the Orange has played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number in the 140 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.