At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two preseason games after their 34-17 loss at home to Las Vegas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Denver (0-2) is winless this preseason after their 21-20 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER TOTAL: Head coach Sean McVay is not likely to play his starters tonight -- especially after these teams just finished two days of rigorous joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday. That means that the Rams' offense will be quarterbacked mostly by rookie Stetson Bennett and journeyman Brett Rypien. Their loss to the Raiders saw a combined 51 points scored — but 14 of those points came from the teams exchanging pick-sixes. Los Angeles is scoring only 17 Points-Per-Game in the preseason while generating only 243.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Rams’ offensive line is a mess — and that problem permeates all the way down their depth chart on the line. LA’s defense has also been bad by allowing 379.1 YPG — but they should benefit from seeing the Broncos’ playbook twice this week. McVay’s Rams have played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a loss in the preseason. They have also played 3 Unders in the three games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog under McVay. Denver head coach Sean Payton has indicated his starters will not play for more than a series (if that) tonight. With wide receiver Jerry Jeudy getting injured in the joint practices, I do not expect many of their starters on offense to take the field. The Broncos are scoring only 18.5 PPG in the preseason while averaging 317.0 YPG. Denver has not covered the point spread in their first two preseason games — and Payton’s teams have played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight preseason games. This will be the Broncos' lone preseason game at home at Empower Stadium at Mile High — and Payton’s teams have played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games on the road. Furthermore, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Denver allowed the 49ers to average 6.8 Yards-Per-Play last week, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after allowing their previous preseason opponent to average 6.5 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this play is that these teams just completed two days of joint practice this week. The Rams' defense had glowing reports afterward — especially on Wednesday. The Broncos defense played significantly better on Thursday. McVay and Payton used those controlled scrimmages as their “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. Expect backups tonight with vanilla schemes in a game filled with players fighting for the final roster spots. In situations like this, the edge goes to the defense since only one mistake by a player on offense can ruin the execution of the play. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). THE SITUATION: Massachusetts (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 1-11 last season. New Mexico State (0-0) has 13 starters returning from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 24-19 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies return nine starters on offense from a group that ranked 108th in the FBS by generating 330.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and head coach Jerry Kill’s team is not going to significantly increase those numbers even if they improve their efficiency since he prefers a run-first ball control attack. New Mexico State scored only 25.5. Points-Per-Game last season in his first year as head coach. The Aggies did win seven of their last nine games — including their victory against the Falcons in the bowl game — with the surge coinciding with Kill turning to Diego Pavia at quarterback. But while they scored at least 45 points in four of those wins, those were against some weak opponents. New Mexico State scored 45 points against a Hawai’i team undergoing a massive rebuild who were one of the worst defensive teams in the FBS. They put up 49 points against a shellshocked Liberty reeling internally from the rumors that their head coach Hugh Freeze was leaving the program for Auburn. They then scored 51 points against FCS-opponent Lamar and then 65 points against Valparaiso who was a late-season replacement for San Jose State who canceled their game after the tragic death of one of their teammates. The Aggies scored less than 25 points in their three other victories — including a 23-13 victory against this UMass team. They then failed to score more than 14 points in their six losses. Pavia is a gamer — but the former junior college transfer completed only 53.2% of his passes last season. New Mexico State’s ball control offense did help their defense hold their opponents to just 336.6 total YPG, ranking 29th in the nation. Five starters return to that unit that was bolstered by the addition of Power-Five transfers in nose tackle Dion Wilson, Jr. from Arizona and linebacker Jamari Buddin from Minnesota. The Aggies return two starters — and add cornerback Keynote Wilson as a transfer from Wyoming  — to a secondary that ranked 16th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 186.8 passing YPG. Kill’s teams have played 31 of their last 52 games Under the Total when playing at home in his coaching career — and his teams have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. UMass will be debuting former Clemson blue-chipper Taison Phommochanh at quarterback — but he was not able to take the starting job at Georgia Tech either so this ability to transform the Minutemen offense that ranked 130th in the nation by averaging only 12.5 PPG remains in doubt. UMass scored less than 14 points in nine of their 12 games last season. Second-year head coach Don Brown will have no plans to open up the offense anyway — his formula for success is also ball control to help his defense. The former defensive coordinator at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh had his team rank 16th in the nation time of possession last season as the head coach for this program. The Minutemen return eight starters — and 13 of their 18 who played at least 200 snaps — from a defense that ranked 54th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.6 total YPG. Brown inherited a defense that ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 485.0 total YPG. After their opponents generated +124 YPG above their season average two years ago, Brown was able to get that mark down to just +14 YPG above their offensive YPG average. Brown and defensive coordinator Keith Dudzinski’s unit ranked 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.9% conversion rate on third down. UMass also ranked ninth in the FBS by allowing only 175.2 passing YPG — a testament to Brown’s touch as he handles the secondary coaching to infuse his man-to-man cover principles. Solid man-to-man coverage allowed the Minutemen to rank fifth in the nation in blitz rate per dropback. UMass played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s game on the road by a 23-13 score at the Minutemen’s McGuirk Alumni Stadium — they gained only 334 total yards but held UMass to just 259 total yards. Both of these coaching staffs will have dedicated plenty of coaching hours to scheme against these offensive attacks that lack originality. Kill’s teams have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season — and New Mexico State played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Minutemen played 5 of their 7 games in the first half of the season Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) leveled their preseason record at 1-1 with a 21-17 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Tennessee (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 in the preseason with a 24-16 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams were set to have two days of joint practices this week — but those plans were canceled after the scary incident the Patriots experienced with their rookie Isaiah Bolden who got injured in that game against the Packers which led to that contest being ended early. While head coach Bill Belichick might have been tempted to use this final preseason game to get more work in for quarterback Mac Jones and the first-string offense — especially with those joint scrimmages postponed — the injuries on their offensive line seem to have persuaded Belichick to instead give Jones and the critical first stringers on offense the night off. Left guard Cole Strange and right guard Michael Onwenu are slowed by injuries and will not play tonight as they prepare for the regular season in two weeks. The play of the Patriots offensive line has been shaky without those two starters — and they have serious issues at right tackle. Jones was sacked twice for 20 yards in his limited action last week. Even if Jones takes the field tonight, it will not be for long since Belichick does not want to risk serious injury to his starting quarterback. Bailey Zappe will likely get most of the snaps under center in the first half — he struggled last week by completing only 10 of 22 passes for only 117 yards. Trace McSorley will probably play most of the second half after the Patriots signed him as a free agent in the offseason. He has played in only nine games with one start in his three-year career — and he has completed only 51.6% of his passes in his career with one touchdown pass and five interceptions. Undrafted rookie free agent Malik Cunningham from Louisville may get some snaps in the fourth quarter although he may get moved to wide receiver for the Patriots in the long run. Belichick may have used the joint practices to test their top third down and red zone plays against a friendly rival in his former player Mike Vrbabel — but that is not likely to happen now when the entire league gets the tape. The Patriots have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win in the preseason. New England has also played 20 of their last 32 road preseason games as an underdog under Belichick — and they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total in the preseason when getting up to three points as an underdog. The Patriots have only scored 15.0 Points-Per-Game in their two preseason games while generating 204.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but their defense has been solid by holding their opponents to just 302.5 total YPG which has resulted in their opponents scoring 18.5 PPG. The Titans defense has been similarly effective by holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG and 299.5 total YPG. But Tennessee has scored only 20.5 PPG in their two preseason games. Ryan Tannehill may get a series or two tonight according to head coach Vrabel — but considering that he has not played in the preseason since 2019, I do not expect him to play for more than a series or two. The Titans’ backup QB situation is unsettled. Rookie Will Levis will probably play after missing last week’s game with a lower-body injury. The former Kentucky star was just OK in his professional debut two weeks ago against Chicago when he completed 9 of 14 passes for 85 yards — but with an interception. He probably could have used the reps last week against the hostile competition that was the Vikings. Rookies tend to struggle against Belichick even in the preseason when his defenses are not as sophisticated as what they will be in the regular season. Malik Willis played the entire game against Minnesota — and he will probably get time tonight since he is a potential trade target. The Titans’ third-round pick from last season has not met expectations — remember that he was bypassed as the team’s starter late in the season last year for Josh Dobbs who they picked up off the streets the previous in a critical Thursday night game against Jacksonville for their playoff aspirations. Willis has completed 26 of his 42 preseason passes this month for only 274 yards with two interceptions. Tennessee has played 4 of their 6 home preseason games as a favorite Under the Total in the Vrabal era.

FINAL TAKE: The offensive schemes will likely be vanilla between these AFC rivals who could play each other in an early playoff game in January. The Titans have played 3 of their 4 preseason games Under the Total against AFC teams under Vrabel — and New England has played 8 of their 12 preseason games Under the Total in the Belichick era. 25* AFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (67-55) has won four straight games after their 2-0 win on the road against the Astros yesterday. Houston (70-53) had won two games in a row before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have won all four of these games by two runs or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning three games in a row by two runs or less. Granted, Julio Rodriguez is tearing it up right now — he is 13 of 17 in his last three games — so taking an Under against a left-handed starting pitcher gave me pause. But the Mariners have stranded at least 10 baserunners in four straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row where they left 10 or more runners on base. Gilbert gets the ball tonight with his 10-5 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.65 moving forward. He has been outstanding since the beginning of July boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in those 49 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 11 starts at home. Houston has played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting shutout by an AL West rival. Furthermore, the Astros have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where two or fewer combined runs were scored. They counter with Valdez who has a 9-8 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is meeting expectations given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.29 moving forward. He returns home to Minute Maid Park for the first time since he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland on August 1st in an effort where he only walked one batter. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.44 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in ten starts on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros struggle against home against right-handed pitching -- they rank 25th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted handed pitching. And since July 1st, Houston ranks 27th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358) in the consolation third-place match in the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Australia (W3-D2-L1) comes off a 3-1 loss to England in their Semifinal match in this tournament on Wednesday morning. Sweden (W4-D1-L1)      lost to Spain in a 2-1 heartbreaker in their Semifinals match Tuesday morning. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Brisbane Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia will be highly motivated to win this match in front of their rabid home fans who have wildly supported their team in this tournament. While reaching the finals would have capped a magical run, winning the third-place bronze trophy will be very rewarding to manager Tony Gustavsson’s team while representing their best finish in a World Cup, men or women. Gustavsson also has his star player back in the mix with Sam Kerr back on the pitch. After missing most of this World Cup, she returned in the match against England and scored their lone goal in the 63rd minute. Kerr’s supporters can make a compelling case that she is the best women’s player in the world. She jumpstarts a Matildas’ attack that scores 10 goals in their six matches. With Kerr back and the excitement of the home crowd, I expect Australia to play aggressively on the front foot. They scored four times with a potent 2.6 expected goals (xG) mark against a quality Canadian team in the Group Stage that won the Gold Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Matildas generated at least 1.1 xG in all six of their matches in this event. But Australia can leaky with their defense. After Kerr evened the score at 1-1, they then conceded two goals in the next 18 minutes to let that game slip out of their hands. While they had four clean sheets overall, the three goals they let Nigeria score against them illustrates their vulnerability in the back end. Sweden is a team that is comfortable in adapting their tactics to their opponent. They outlasted the United States in the shootout in the Round of 16 after 120 minutes of scoreless play. But after Spain broke the scoreless deadlock in the 81st minute in the Semifinals, they pressed the accelerator to even the score seven minutes later — all before conceding the game-winning goal to La Roja two minutes later. Sweden has generated at least 2.0 xG in four of their six matches including against a very good Japanese side. But they allowed 1.2 xG in four of their six matches — and the US, Japan, and Spain combined to create 4.6 expected goals against them in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: Consolation matches tend to be higher-scoring affairs since there is not as much pressure regarding winning or losing the match. Parking the bus in the attempt to grind out a third-place trophy is no fun for anyone. In the eight third-place matches in the Women’s World Cup, five of these contests saw three or more combined goals. Sweden will be playing in their fourth third-place match at a Women’s World Cup — but they have won all three of those matches while scoring a combined nine goals in those contests. Manager Peter Gerhardsson intends to keep his same starting XI — so it will be their A-team facing an energized Australian side. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup with a 0-0 draw with Ireland on Monday. England (W3-D0-L0) completed a sweep of their three Group Stage opponents with their 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Brisbane Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England enters this match with an overrated offensive attack that looks more impressive after scoring six times against China. They scored in the fourth minute of that match which changed the complexion of the contest since China needed a victory to advance to the Knockout Stage — so they had to play more aggressively which contributed to the blowout. The Lionesses only registered 2.6 expected goals in that match so they significantly overperformed the underlying metrics. England only scored one goal apiece in their first two matches at this event — and their 6.3 expected goals are just the ninth most in the tournament. The Lionesses are dealing with several injuries with striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby out with injuries before the World Cup started. Keira Walsh is dealing with a knee that leaves her in doubt to play this morning. They are far from full strength in their attack. Frankly, this England side is probably a bit overvalued right now on the heels of winning the Euro Championship last summer. Not only did the Lionesses have the benefit of home-field advantage in hosting the event but they were fortunate in several of their matches after losing the expected goals battle. But England has been dominant on defense despite playing without their best defender, Leah Williamson. The penalty kick goal China scored is the only goal they have allowed. Their 0.9 expected goals China managed is the most an opponent has generated in this event — and their total expected goals allowed is just 1.9 xGA. They face a dangerous opponent in Nigeria who is a disciplined underdog that will be content in giving up possession while limiting high-quality scoring opportunities. Despite allowing the fourth most touches of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage, they rank fifth in the tournament by limiting their opponents on target to just 22.9% of their shot attempts. In their scoreless draw with Ireland, they held the Irish women to just 0.5 expected goals while managing only 1.1 expected goals themselves. The Super Falcons have scored only three goals in this tournament while registering just 3.0 expected goals. But they have allowed only two goals with an xGA of just 4.1.

FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has played two matches to scoreless draws with their 0-0 draw with Canada perhaps being most telling since the Canadians are one of the best teams in the world who won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. Nigeria survived perhaps the toughest group in this tournament that included host nation Australia as well as a disappointed Canada squad that did not advance along with a feisty Ireland side. I considered the Super Falcons plus the +1.5 goals but concluded the Under was the preferred option given the strength of England’s defense (I think a 2-0 England win is more likely than a 2-1 win for the Lionesses). 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-54) has won lost four straight games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (57-54) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Arizona has scored no more than four runs in eight straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing five straight games where they did not allow more than four runs. They have played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total in Interleague play. Nelson gets the start with his 6-5 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home at Chase Field where he has been saddled with a 8.01 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .356 in ten starts — but he has thrived away from that hitter’s ballpark as he sports a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts on the road. In his last five starts on the road, he owns a 1.87 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP while holding three of his opponents to just one run. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Nelson pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .660 during that span. Minnesota has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games — but they have held four straight opponents to three runs or less with three of those opponents only scoring two runs. The Twins have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Maeda who has a 2-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Those frontline numbers are skewed by one disastrous start at home against the New York Yankees when he gave up ten runs in three innings of work. He went on the injured list after that effort with a tricep injury that kept him on the shelf for two months. Since his return to the mound in June, he has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts. His velocity is back up which has helped him strike out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings — and he has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts — but take away that disaster against the Yankees, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: While Arizona ranks ninth and tenth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — but they have dropped to 17th and 18th in those categories since the beginning of July. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 batting average, a .243 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .523 during that span. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Comber. THE SITUATION: San Diego (52-54) has won three straight games after their 5-3 loss at home against Texas yesterday. Colorado (41-64) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 2-0 win against Oakland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have held their last five opponents to three runs or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than three runs in four or more games in a row. San Diego has played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played five straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 11 or higher. Lugo gets the start looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been quite good since returning from a stint on the injured list last month. In his last seven starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. He has also been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in eight starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in seven starts at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound following a victory in their last game. He faces a Rockies team that leaves way too many runners on base. While Colorado ranks sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers, they only rank 29th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Rockies have fallen to ranking just 21st in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers — and they still rank 29th in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. This team has also traded away two of their best bats with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk being shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Colorado has played 25 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after shutting out their previous opponent. The Rockies have also played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. And in their last 9 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Gomber who has an 8-8 record with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 21 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective lately as he has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less with three of those four starts being at home at Coors Field. Gomber has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in his last six starts — and he has issued only two walks in his last seven starts! In his last four starts at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Gomber on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He will be supported by a defense that has not committed an error in two straight games — and the Rockies have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after not committing an error in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 19th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (52-52) was on a three-game winning streak before their 3-0 loss on the road against the White Sox in the second game of this series. Chicago (42-63) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games. They have played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow AL Central rivals. And in their last 52 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, they have played 32 of those games Under the Total. Allen gets the start looking to build on his 4-3 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts at home. He faces a White Sox line that ranks 29th and 28th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 30th in those categories since June 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .233 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .655 during that span. The White Sox have scored three runs or less in three of their last four games. They have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a game where three or more combined runs were scored. The White Sox have also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Clevinger who has been activated off the injured list for this start. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has been better at home where he owns a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in five starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA and a .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland ranks 22nd and 21st in MLB this season since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-48) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-43) has lost three of their last four games after an 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played five straight Unders while not giving up more than three runs in those contests. But they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Williamson gets the ball with a 2-2 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.07 and 5.10 moving forward. He has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 win seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 batting average, a .375 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .877 during that span. Los Angeles ranks sixth and second this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. They have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by six or more runs. The Dodgers have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They counter with Miller who has a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts as opposed to his 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank eighth in MLB since the beginning of May in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-44) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (28-73) has won three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game — including 12 of these last 18 circumstances this season. Houston completes their nine-game road trip today — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their previous seven games on the road. The Astros have also played 38 of their last 58 road games Under the Total when priced as a -125 or higher favorite. Brown gets the start with his 6-7 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are promising with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.42 and 3.05 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.79 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts as compared to his 4.89 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276  in eight starts at home. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with Brown pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA in their last five games — and the Astros have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Brown and the Houston pen face an A’s team that is only scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average. Oakland ranks 30th and 29th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival in their last game. The A’s have also played 14 of their last 23 games at home as an underdog priced from +150 to +200. They complete a ten-game home stand this afternoon — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing six or more games in a row at home. They counter with Medina who has a 3-7 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 13 games including nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be giving about a run less per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.47 moving forward. Most of the damage against him has taken place on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 32 2/3 innings — he has a more respectable 4.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 32 2/3 innings at home. Furthermore, the right-hander has made an adjustment recently that is generating better results. He has introduced a sinker into his arsenal which he is throwing in place of his four-seamer — and he is using his slider more to offset this new pitch. Medina has a 3.12 ERA in his last five appearances with 28 strikeouts in those 26 innings. He faces an Astros lineup missing the injured Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — they are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Games against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Panama (W3-D2-L0) reached the championship match of the Gold Cup on Wednesday by beating the United States in penalty kicks (5-4) after their semifinals match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time. Mexico (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Wednesday. This match is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico has found their mojo again under manager Jaime Lozano who took over for  Diego Cocca after El Tri got trounced by the United States by a 3-0 score in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last month. The improved play has started with their defense as they have allowed only two goals in their five matches — and one of those conceded goals was against Qatar when they were playing with a rotated starting XI in the final group stage match with the luxury of having first place in their group all but wrapped up. Mexico has held their opponents to just 30 shots in this tournament — an average of just six per match. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) has been only 1.5 goals. Their veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa has registered three clean sheets. El Tri did score an impressive three goals against a strong Jamaican side but the game script of that match quickly tilted in their favor when they scored in the first two minutes. The Reggae Boyz were forced out of their preferred defensive posture playing catchup for the entire match. Panama has been deceptively strong on the defensive side of the pitch with four of the five goals they have allowed taking place after the 90th-minute mark. The lone goal the United States scored against them was at the 105th-minute mark after the match remained scoreless after the 90 minutes of regulation time.

FINAL TAKE: Panama has been blanked in four of their last five matches against Mexico — they have scored just once in those previous five encounters. Los Canaleros will engage in a defensive posture hoping to force extra time as they did against the Americans. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (42-38) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 3-1 victory in the second game of their series with the Orioles. Baltimore (48-30) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Cincinnati has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Weaver who has a 1-2 record with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323 in six starts as opposed to his 1.47 WHIP and a .295 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. He has been crushed this month with a 10.80 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .368 in his four starts in June. He faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth and fifth respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank third in both those metrics since the beginning of June. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gibson who has an 8-5 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in nine starts on the road. And in his four starts this month, Gibson has a 5.75 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank sixth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-33) has lost three of their last four games — and six of their last eight — after a 3-1 loss on the road against the Yankees on Saturday. New York (38-28) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees lineup is slumping without Aaron Judge who is on the injured list with a toe injury. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average, a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661 during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They beat the Red Sox by a 3-2 score in Game One on Friday — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored more than three runs. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning their previous game. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Schmidt gets the ball looking to build on his 2-6 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.93 moving forward. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in five starts. Schmidt has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts at night — and New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Schmidt as their starting pitcher in a night game. He faces a Mets team that has played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 Batting Average, a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have not scored more than three runs in four straight games and in seven of their last eight contests. The Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Bello who has a 3-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.77 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in three starts as compared to his 4.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Bello pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Red Sox have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Boston ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since May 1st. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss on the road against the Panthers on Thursday. Florida (55-39-7) ended their two-game losing streak to win their first game in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 12 combined goals in the first two games in this series, head coach Paul Maurice changed the Panthers’ approach in this series by being willing to grind out a lower-scoring game. Florida only peppered the Golden Knights’ goaltender Adin Hill with 23 shots. But the Panthers are losing in the special teams battle in this series. Vegas has scored six goals on the power play in this series while converting 35.3% of the time against Florida when they have the man advantage. Both their goals on Thursday were on the power play. The formula for success for the Panthers has become clear: stop trying to out-muscle the Golden Knights, settle for lower-scoring games, and make it a battle between Sergei Bobrovsky and Hill. Florida was able to bully Toronto and Carolina — but Vegas is well-versed in playing heavy hockey so these tactics are old hat to them. Bobrovsky had his best game in this series as he stopped 25 of the 27 shots he faced. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner had +1.71 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation in Game Three. While it is too much to ask for Bobrovsky to reproduce the .954 save percentage he enjoyed against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes, the Florida approach has shifted to play with less aggression with more attention to defense to help him out. Vegas only managed 1.62 expected goals when playing at five-on-five even strength. Now the message from Maurice is to take fewer penalties. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, Florida has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when hosting the Golden Knights. Vegas entered this series seeming to struggle with their Power Play Kill Unit in the postseason — but much of that is due to having to deal with the historically elite power play of the Edmonton Oilers this season. Connor McDavid and company scored 14 power-play goals in 23 chances in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Golden Knights have been perfect in this series by thwarting the Panthers in all 12 of their power play chances. Hill played his worst game in this series by allowing three goals — but he did not play badly, per se, as he posted a -0.1 GSAx indicating he was about average. I do not see a sudden blow-up coming from Hill since he is protected by head coach Bruce Cassidy’s sophisticated defensive system which is a passive version of the old New Jersey Devils’ 1-4 scheme. Cassidy is happy to have his team counter-attack with all their scoring talent. We had the Over in Game Three as I expected Florida to come out very aggressive (and perhaps the early injury to Matthew Tkachuk compelled them to change tactics). But after attempting 35 and 31 shots in the first two games of this series, the Panthers only took those 23 shots on Thursday including the game-winner in overtime. On the other hand, the 27 shots Vegas had in Game Three was their lowest number in the series. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 22 of their last 35 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 Game Fours in a series Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas has played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss by just one goal to their opponent. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-10) has won eight of their last ten games after their 7-2 victory at home against the Panthers on Monday. Florida (54-38-8) has lost two games in a row to fall behind 2-0 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 31 shots after registering 35 shots in Game One but they have only scored four goals. They have yet to score on the Power Play despite the Golden Knights entering this series with a Power Play Kill percentage of just 63%. Florida reached the Stanley Cup Finals with a physical style of play that neutralized Boston before wearing down Toronto and Carolina. This approach has not worked against Vegas. Matthew Tkachuk is spending too much time trying to be a tough guy rather than being a scorer. He scored nine goals in the first three rounds and added 12 assists in those sixteen games while only getting called for 24 penalty minutes. But in this series, Tkachuk has 36 penalty minutes already with three ten-minute misconduct penalties. He has scored only one goal in this series. Panthers head coach Paul Maurice will make plenty of changes after his team has been outscored by eight goals in this series. Top amongst these changes will be to get away from the extra-curricular stuff. The Golden Knights have scored four power-play goals in this series — and they are scoring on 36.4% of their power-play chances in the first two games. This has to change. Florida has an expected Goals-For percentage of 52.11 playing at even strength five-on-five in this series. The Panthers will stay play physical — but the attempts to goad and intimidate Vegas will be reined in since it has backfired. Returning home will also allow Maurice to get Tkachuk playing against either the Jack Eichel/Jonathan Marchessault line or the Mark Stone line — and that should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides. Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy likes to use the William Karlsson line to defend the opposing team’s top line — Vegas was able to slow down Edmonton’s superstar forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with Karlsson. But it is now Maurice rather than Cassidy who has the advantage of the last line change with this series moving to Florida. The Panthers have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 12-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 5 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring another four times against him before he got pulled at the 7:10 minute mark of the season period. As mentioned above, Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. The Vegas players are finding room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Marchessault has an incredible 26.1% scoring percentage on his shots over his last 12 games. The 11-day layover after the Eastern Conference Finals may have cooled him off — or it is the Golden Knights' skill in screening him that has changed things. He has a 5.52 Goals-Against-Average with a .826 save percentage in this series. The +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Vegas goalie Adin Hill has faced at least 30 shots in eight of his last ten games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 18 goals in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46) in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (54-38-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 5-2 loss on the road to the Golden Knights on Saturday. Vegas (64-26-10) has won seven of their last nine games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 35 shots — and they were unlucky with three of their shots hitting the goal post. After failing to score on their three power play opportunities and managing only three combined shots in those situations, Florida should be focused on being more aggressive tonight. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 11-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 4 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring four times against him (the final goal was an empty-netter). Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. Vegas was able to have players find room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Despite giving up the most goals in the playoffs since Game Six against the Bruins, it would not be fair to conclude that Bobrovsky had a bad game. He posted a +0.22 Goals Saved Above Expectation in Game One. The +19.7 GSAx mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Hill has faced at least 30 shots in seven of his last nines games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 11 goals in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. At home at T-Mobile Arena, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. And in their last 6 opportunities to host the Panthers, 5 of these games finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-26-10) has lost the last two games in this series after their 4-2 loss at home to the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (56-26-18) now trails by a 3-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Adin Hill had not allowed more than three goals in six straight games before Saturday. Hill still has a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average in his ten playoff games this year with a .932 save percentage — and he has +6.75 Goals Saved Above Expectation this postseason. Coming off his three previous losses in these playoffs, Hill has a .925 save percentage in the next game. Vegas has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals. They went into the third period with the game tied before the Stars scored two unanswered goals — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing more than one goal in the third period of their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 44 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total, Dallas has played 26 of these games Under the Total. Dallas suddenly has a hot goaltender between the pipes with Jake Oettinger stopping 27 of the 29 shots he faced on Saturday. After getting benched after seven minutes in the first period of Game Three, Oettinger has allowed only four goals in the last two games with a .941 save percentage and a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average. The Stars have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on home ice.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.

FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (22-29) has won two of their last three games after their 9-0 victory in the opening game of this three-game series. Chicago (22-28) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests with that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road. Williamson gets the ball to make his third career professional start after carrying an 0-0 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his first two starts. After a promising first start on the road against Colorado, the left-hander gave up for earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against St. Louis on Sunday. He issued four walks in that effort which continued his problems of command that manifested in his minor league stints. In Triple-A last season, he had a 1.63 WHIP while averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings. In his 34 innings in Triple-A this season, he continued that 5.3 bases-on-balls per nine-inning rate while posting a 1.88 WHIP. He faces a Cubs team that scores 6.3 Runs-Per-Game this season against left-handed pitchers with a .303 Batting Average, a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .859. With the recently called-up Christopher Morel on fire and Seiya Suzuki finally heating up, Chicago has two red-hot hitters on the right side of the plate — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 10 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by four or more runs. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games at home at Wrigley Field — and the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the Total in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Taillon who has an 0-3 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.73 in seven starts. The right-hander is amidst a terrible slump having allowed 19 earned runs in just 12 2/3 innings in his last four starts. He has only struck out 11 batters during that span while issuing six walks. And while Taillon has a 7.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in four road starts, those numbers are even worse at home where has been saddled with an 8.49 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in three starts. Taillon’s teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching in May.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 Batting Average, a .350 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .771. These two teams have played 4 straight Overs against each other. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-25-9) has won five games in a row after their 4-0 shutout victory on the road against the Stars on Tuesday. Dallas (54-26-18) has lost three games in a row to fall behind 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Pete DeBoer pulled goalie Jake Oettinger after he gave up a third goal on just five shots early in the first period on Tuesday. Oettinger usually plays well after a loss. He had a 22-1-3 record in the regular season coming off a loss with a .933 save percentage — and he has a .913 save percentage coming off a loss in these playoffs. The Stars have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Dallas’ attack will be undermanned tonight with Jamie Benn suspended for the next two games and Evgeni Dadonov doubtful with a lower-body injury. That decimates two-thirds of the Stars’ third forward line. Dadonov has four goals and six assists in 16 playoff games this season. But it is the loss of their captain Benn who is not taking accountability for his terrible play on Tuesday as he claimed that he regretted using his stick to brace his fall that simply inadvertently chocked Mark Stone’s neck on the ice. Benn scored 33 goals and added 45 assists in the regular season. He has three goals and eight assists in this postseason — and he plays on the Dallas power play. The last two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Stars have played 37 of their last 60 home games Under the Total after playing two Unders in a row. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games at home. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games in the Western Conference Finals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Vegas has won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more of their last 21 games. The Golden Knights have scored three or more goals in five straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in five straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 34 of the shots he faced on Tuesday. He is playing with tremendous confidence after frustrating the Edmonton Oilers last round with their dynamic scorers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Hill has a 1.96 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage in seven games in these playoffs. He has generated +6.0 Goals Saved Above Expectation in the postseason. He has been helped by an aggressive Vegas defense that has blocked 266 shots in the playoffs, the second-most in the postseason. The Golden Knights have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. The Stars have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (53-37-7) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 1-0 victory at home against the Hurricanes on Monday. Carolina (59-25-12) has lost three in a row to fall behind in this series by a 3-0 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Panthers’ goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is as hot as a goaltender can be right now. He enters this game with 67 straight saves after his shutout in Game Three. He has stopped 69 of 70 shots in the last two games — and he has stopped 132 of the 135 shots he has faced in this series. In his last four games, Bobrovsky has a 0.89 Goals-Against-Average and a .973 save percentage. While these numbers are not sustainable, the visit from the Regression Gods is not likely to see a radical change. While Bobrovsky struggled in the regular season, we are talking about a two-time Vezina Trophy winner. The veteran has extended stretches in his career when he was playing at a very high level. He has a .935 save percentage in the playoffs with +19.5 Goals Saved Above Expectation. And Bobrovksy has been helped by head coach Paul Maurice’s style of play with the emphasis on forechecking generating better defensive play in the final month of the regular season that has carried over into the playoffs. Florida has played 7 straight Unders after winning their previous game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. And in their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series, Florida has played 6 straight Unders. In the Game Fours in the previous series against Boston and Toronto, the Panthers only gave up three combined goals. While Bobrovsky’s save streak will likely be snapped tonight, our Under play will be helped by the strong play of the Hurricanes’ goalie Frederick Andersen. It’s not like Florida has evoked memories of the 1980s Wayne Gretzky Edmonton Oilers teams. They have only scored six goals in the first three games in this series — and that includes four overtime periods. In his seven playoff games this postseason, Andersen has a 1.58 GAA and a .937 save percentage. Carolina is an excellent defensive team that led the NHL in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) since the Christmas break. They are limiting the Panthers to just 19.66 shots per game per 60 minutes and 2.17 xGA per 60 minutes in this series. The Hurricanes have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road after losing their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. They have played 5 straight Unders after losing three games in a row. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the Eastern Conference Finals.

FINAL TAKE: Perhaps this is the game where both teams score two goals before someone takes a 3-2 lead which is followed up by either an empty-netter or a goal that forces overtime. But with both teams playing so tightly disciplined in a physical series with elite goaltending, I do not expect the tone of Game Four to dramatically change (especially for Florida). I do think there will be more power play chances tonight — but the Hurricanes have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by just one goal. If this was a regular season game, I might be more tempted by the contrarian Over play — but since this is the fourth straight playoff game between these two teams, the style and tempos should remain the same. Frankly, we are getting a gift with the Total not dropping to 5. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-26-16) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss in overtime on Friday. Vegas (60-25-9) has won three straight games en route to their 1-0 lead in this series.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Stars are scoring 3.62 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have tallied 22 goals after their previous five losses this postseason for a 4.4 Goals-Per-Game average. Dallas has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored three or more goals — and they have played 40 of their last 67 games Over the Total after a game where seven or more combined goals were scored. Jake Oettinger has struggled in these playoffs with a 2.83 Goals-Against-Average and a .902 save percentage in 14 games after giving up four goals on Friday. He was pulled in Games Three and Six last round against the Kraken. Dallas stays on the road where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games. Vegas has scored 13  combined goals in their last three games from eight different players. The Golden Knights have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have scored at least four goals in each of their last three games — and they have played 20 of their last 33 games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total. Goalie Adin Hill bailed them out against Edmonton after Laurent Brossoit suffered an injury in Game Two. But he remains risky moving forward which he demonstrated by allowing the tying goal with under two minutes to go in the third period. The Stars peppered him with 36 shots on Friday — and he will be tested once again in this crucial game for them.  

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has trailed in a playoff series four times this postseason — and 3 of those 4 games finished Over the Total. The Over is also 7-1-1 in the Stars’ last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NHL ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg of this semifinals last Tuesday. Manchester City hosts the second leg at the Etihad.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti instructed his team to play conservatively and with caution in the first leg between these teams — and after Vinicius Junior scored the opening goal at the 36th-minute mark, this directive was even more imperative. Los Blancos do not have the same level of talent as Manchester City — but the reigning Champions League champions have plenty of star power to pull out a close match in the second leg. Real Madrid only generated 0.89 expected goals — but they executed what Ancelotti wanted by limiting the Sky Blues to just 0.37 expected goals. But Man City was able to settle for the draw when Kevin DeBruyne evened the score in the 67th minute. So it is now winner take all back at the Etihad. Los Blancos followed that match up on Saturday with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe in La Liga action. They have now scored in 16 straight matches across all competitions. They have also scored 26 goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League this season for a robust 2.36 Goals-Per-Game average. But the defensive play for Real Madrid has not been nearly as stout when playing away from home this year. In five home matches against upper-tier competition, Los Blancos held Liverpool, Chelsea RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad to a combined 4.4 expected goals. But when playing on the road against those five sides, Real Madrid conceded a combined 9.5 expected goals (xG) with Liverpool accumulating 2.2 xG, Chelsea, RP Leipzig, and Barcelona all generating 1.9 xG, and Read Sociedad registering 1.9 xG. Now Los Blancos have to try to again slow down what is probably the best-attacking team in the world in this Cityzens group. Man City has scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches across all competitions after their 3-0 win at Everton on Sunday. They matched Real Madrid’s 26 goals in 11 Champions League competitions this season. Manager Pep Guardiola may have been comfortable with the conservative tactics that Ancelotti deployed last week knowing they had the advantage of the second leg being back at the Etihad. Man City has won 15 straight matches at home while scoring two or more goals in 14 of those contests. With the addition of Erling Haaland this season, Guardiola has his first world-class number-nine striker at the top of the pitch for the first time since Sergio Aguero from several seasons ago. Haaland has been a goal-scoring machine for this team with 36 goals across 33 matches in all competitions for the Sky Blues this season. But the defense has been an issue with this team. Ederson did get the clean sheet shutout on Sunday — but that was the first time he had not conceded in his last matches across all competitions. The team's two previous clean sheets were with backup keeper Stefan Ortega getting the spot start. Guardiola will not have Nathan Ake available for this match as he recovers from injury.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown of European superpowers is a rematch of the Champions League semifinals last year. In the first leg at the Etihad, Man City won by a 4-3 score in what was a wild up-and-down affair. And after scoring first in the second leg in Madrid, the Cityzens thought they were in control before Karim Benzema put his team on his back with Real Madrid scoring three late goals to steal a 6-5 aggregate score victory. Benzema exposed a shaky Man City defense against counterattacks — and he is ready to make noise again with the help of a rapidly improving Junior. But Haaland was signed in the summer to a big contract for precisely this moment. The low scoring in the first leg was the outlier between these two teams. The urgency of this tied second leg will lead to aggressive play, fireworks, and plenty of goals (one way or another) given the counter-attacking prowess of both sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (53-24-16) has won two games in a row in this series after their 5-2 victory at home against the Kraken on Thursday. Seattle (52-34-8) has lost three of their last four games to fall behind in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kraken got an inspired goaltending effort from Philip Grubauer in the first round of the playoffs who seemed motivated to prove something to his old team — he posted a .934 save percentage in that seven-game series with Seattle upsetting Colorado and dethroning the reigning Stanley Cup champions. But Grubauer has regressed back to his underwhelming play in this series which has made him a big disappointment for this expansion club that targeted him as their big free agent signing before their inaugural season last year. Grubauer has allowed nine goals in the last two games while posting a .786 save percentage. His postseason numbers of a 3.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .903 save percentage look very close to his regular season numbers. At home during the regular season, Grubauer had a 3.06 GAA and a .886 save percentage. Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in two straight games. The Kraken face the prospect of elimination tonight — so they will be aggressive and will pull Grubauer to grab the man advantage earlier than usual if they are trailing in the third period. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Dallas has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last game. And while they have scored 11 combined goals in the last two games, the Stars have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road after scoring four or more goals in two straight games. Dallas has also received disappointing goaltending in this series. Jake Oettinger has a 2.65 GAA and a .907 save percentage in the postseason. In his last three games, he has allowed 10 goals while posting a .851 save percentage. The Stars go on the road looking to end this series tonight — and the Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games on the road. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 26 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, the Over is 17-4-5.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Overs — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Seattle. The Kraken have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses by two or more goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Florida (49-37-7) was on a six-game winning streak before their 2-1 loss at home to the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Toronto (55-25-12) still trails in this series by a 3-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have scored exactly two goals in six straight games — but the books and the market have not adjusted with the Total still set at 6.5 tonight. Toronto has abandoned their aggressive offensive approach to play more cautiously and with a defensive mindset. They only generated 2.66 expected goals on Wednesday while only 25 shots. They have no more than 30 shots in four of their last six games — and they have not topped more than 25 shots in three of those games. But this approach is making life easier for their goaltender as they have held Florida to under 30 shots in all four games in this series. Head coach Sheldon Keefe seems committed to this philosophy against the high-scoring Panthers — and he will likely stick to this plan with rookie Joseph Woll between the pipes. He stopped 24 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. Woll has talent. His 2.37 Goals-Against-Average and .927 save percentage in 21 appearances in the AHL was similar to his 2.16 GAA and .932 save percentage in his seven starts in the regular season. He passed the tough test in Game Four in a hostile environment. Toronto has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a one-goal victory against a division opponent in their last game. They have played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Maple Leafs have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in four straight games. They have also played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Florida has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky who is in the zone right now with a 1.99 GAA and a .934 save percentage in this series. The Panthers have played 8 straight Unders on the road in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Toronto. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 129-124 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns head coach Monty Williams has his team playing at a faster pace with Chris Paul sidelined with his groin injury. Paul tends to slow things down running the point in the half-court offense. With Devin Booker running the show, Phoenix is racing up and down the court with Booker averaging 36.8 Points-Per-Game in this series. Williams is also giving more minutes to T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross who are scorers but liabilities on defense. The result on Sunday was a scoring fest with 253 combined points scored. But despite these tactical adjustments, the books have remained steady with the Total remaining in the 227-228 range while letting the market make big decisions on where this series will go. Well, the market loves the Over tonight — but I think Game Five is the time to embrace our contrarian spirits and play the Under. Booker is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 38 contests. Phoenix should play better on defense — and Williams might be compelled to rely on players like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie instead of Warren, Ross, or Landry Shamet (who nailed five shots from behind the arc in Game Four) thinking his team can’t outrun and outgun Denver in their own building. The Suns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home. They have also played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver had their best shooting game in their last six contests by making 56.2% of their shots — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better in their last game. Head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots — and they have also played a decisive 44 of their last 65 games at home Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. While the Nuggets ranked 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — and they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. And while the last two games in this series have finished Over the Total, Denver has paled 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this game should finish Over the Total. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting — and that was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Realistically, the Knicks cannot expect to do much better than that on the defensive end of the court — and Miami still scored 105 points. New York has not covered the point spread in any of the three games in this series — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Miami’s 38.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting performance in their last 43 games. They only made 7 of their 32 shots (21.9%) from behind the arc. After a subpar regular season in their 3-point shooting, the Heat regained their shooting touch from last season as they are nailing 39.2% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs, the second-best mark of all teams in the postseason. Jimmy Butler returned to the court and scored 26 points — so while he is listed as questionable again tonight, that seems to be merely a formality. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court — so his presence helps the Over. Miami has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Heat have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Miami Over the Total despite Game Three finishing Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (57) and the Vegas Golden Knights (58) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (54-25-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 6-4 loss on the road to the Golden Knights on Wednesday. Vegas (56-23-9) has won seven of their last eight games after taking a 1-0 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Oilers lost Game One despite Leon Draisaitl scoring four times on Wednesday. He now has 11 goals in these playoffs with another four assists. Connor McDavid assisted on two of those goals — he now has nine assists to go along with his three goals in this postseason. Edmonton leads the NHL by scoring 4.0 Goals-Per-Game after that output. They have scored 20 goals in their last four games while putting up at least four goals in all four of those games. The Oilers have played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing on the road to a divisional rival. They have also played 14 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least three goals. Defense remains the problem with this team as they have allowed 17 combined goals in their last four games — and each of those opponents scoring at least three times five straight games and six of their last seven contests. Rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner looked shaky at times in giving up five goals on the 33 shots he faced. After a solid season for Edmonton where he posted a 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage, he has taken a step back under the pressure in the playoffs with a 3.68 GAA and a .883 save percentage in seven starts. The Oilers have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing three or more goals in at least three straight games in a row. They have also played 26 of their last 36 games on the road Over the Total. Vegas is a scoring juggernaut with forward Mark Stone back on the ice healthy again. First-year head coach Bruce Cassidy is comfortable rolling four forward lines with Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson having found a great chemistry together — so Stone has been inserted to anchor the team’s “third line”. Stone scored his fourth postseason goal on the power play in the first period on Wednesday before Stephenson scored his fourth goal in the third period. The Golden Knights have scored 24 combined goals in their last five games while generating at least four goals in each of those games. Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. They have also played 33 of their last 52 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 12 games at home, the Golden Knights have played 9 of these games Over the Total. But the Achilles’ heel for this team is their goaltending. Cassidy is trusting Laurent Brossoit as his best option (and he might be) after he posted a 2.17 GAA and .927 save percentage in 10 starts after being called up from the minors in the second half of the season. But like Skinner, those numbers have declined under the pressure of playoff hockey as he has a 2.79 GAA and a .899 save percentage in seven postseason games this year.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Vegas. Edmonton has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (57) and the Vegas Golden Knights (58). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (33) and the New Jersey Devils (34) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (49-25-14) forced a Game Seven in this series with their 5-2 victory at home against the Devils on Saturday. New Jersey (54-25-9) had won three games in a row before losing Game Six.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have not allowed more than two goals in five of the six games in this series (excluding empty-netters). The Under is 9-4-1 in New York’s last 14 games after a victory in their last game. Additionally, the Rangers have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 27 of their last 39 road games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored four or more goals. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has been outstanding in this series — he has only allowed 11 goals (with the Devils scoring two empty-netters). He has a 1.79 Goals-Against-Average and a .939 save percentage — and he has made +7.3 saves above expectations (GSAx) in this series. New York goes on the road where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games — and they have played 25 of their last 37 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. New Jersey has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a divisional rival. Akira Schmid allowed five goals on the 29 shots he faced on Saturday. But he still has a 1.72 GAA and a .937 save percentage in this series — and he has played much better than Vitek Vanacek who he replaced after Game Two.

FINAL TAKE: The Devils have played 55 of their last 82 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road where they lost by three or more goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (33) and the New Jersey Devils (34). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings played one of their best defensive games of the season by holding the Warriors under 100 points. They limited Golden State to just 37.2% shooting which was a season-low for the reigning NBA champions. Head coach Mike Brown will implore his young team to maintain that type of effort on the defensive end of the court in this Game Seven. But Sacramento only made 40.4% of their shots on Friday in that elimination game — and I do not expect a significant improvement on that mark in this Game Seven with the pressure on this team that lacks deep playoff experience. As it is, the Kings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Sacramento has also played 5 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 11 games after losing to a Pacific Division rival, they have played their next 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home by double-digits. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams in Sacramento. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (11) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (12) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (53-23-11) had won three games in a row in this series before losing at home to the Lightning by a 4-2 score on Thursday. Tampa Bay (47-31-9) staved off elimination but still trails by a 3-2 margin in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs had scored 16 combined goals in their previous three games before only scoring twice on Thursday. They had scored at least three times in each game in this series before Game Five. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last contest. The Maple Leafs are loaded with offensive talent which helped them lead seventh in the league in expected Goals (xG) per 60 minutes at even strength. But their defense ranks in the bottom half of the NHL since the Christmas break in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes. Toronto has seen six or more combined goals in 17 of their last 24 games. Perhaps goalie Ilya Samsonov has not been given much help from the Maple Leafs blue line — but his 3.61 Goals-Against-Average and .886 save percentage in this series are not what they thought they were getting when signing him as a free agent in the offseason. Tonight’s game should be another higher-scoring game. Toronto has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%. Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a win on the road. The Lightning remained loaded with offensive talent — and they have scored four or more goals in three of the games in this series. But the Tampa Bay blue line has taken a step or two back since their Stanley Cup title run and even their loss to Colorado in the Stanley Cup Finals last season. The Lightning ranked 19th in xGA in the regular season. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is perhaps amid his worst postseason this spring. He has a 3.90 GAA and a .870 save percentage in this series. They have seen six or more combined goals scored in 14 of their last 19 games. They return home where they have played 26 of their last 39 home games Over the Total with the number set at 6 or higher. Tampa Bay has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60% to 75% range.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home by two or more goals. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing in Tampa Bay. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (11) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Kraken (51) and the Colorado Avalanche (52) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Seattle (48-30-8) evened this series at 2-2 with their 3-2 win in overtime at home on Monday. Colorado (53-25-8) had won four of their previous five games before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche gave up two goals in the first period before holding the Kraken for more than 50 minutes before losing in overtime. After they tied the score up in the second period, these two teams played a scoreless third period — and I expect more of the same in this game that should be low-scoring. As it is, Colorado has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing by one goal in their previous contest. The Under is 13-4-2 in the Avalanche’s last 19 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last contest. And while they have given up seven combined goals in their last two games, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in two straight games. They come back home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The Aves will be without a suspended Cole Makar tonight — and while he is an outstanding defensive man, the team will miss his offensive contributions as well as steady play on the power play. The team is also without forward Valeri Nichushkin who is out due to personal reasons. While these absences hurt the Colorado attack, this remains a team that ranked third in the league in expected Goals Allowed (xGA). Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their previous game in overtime. The Kraken have had the second-best xGA in the NBA since Christmas — but they rank only 21st in the league in expected goals since then. Seattle has played 4 straight Unders on the road — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Colorado. The Avalanche have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Kraken (51) and the Colorado Avalanche (52). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (31) and the Los Angeles Kings (32) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (51-24-10) has lost two of the first three games in this series after their 3-2 loss in overtime on Friday. Los Angeles (48-26-11) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings' physical style of play has frustrated the Oilers in this series. While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are getting their share of points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are goalless in this series after scoring 37 and 36 goals in the regular season respectively. Los Angeles is getting great goaltending from Joonas Korpisalo who they picked up from Columbus at the trade deadline. He stopped  38 of the 40 shots he faced in the 63:24 minutes of Game Three. In his five starts at home in the regular season at Crypto.com Arena with the Kings, Korpisalo had a 1.38 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Kings are not at full strength with their offensive attack with Kevin Fiala out since April 1st with a lower-body injury. He scored 23 goals and added 49 assists in the regular season. While he is skating in practice, he is not ready to return to action just yet. The Under is 9-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 14 games on home ice. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the Pacific Division. Edmonton has seen the Under go 6-2-1 in Edmonton’s last 9 games against Pacific Division rivals. The Oilers have attempted at least 33 shots in 11 straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total after attempting 33 or more shots in three or more games in a row. Edmonton did get a performance from rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner who stopped 28 of the 31 shots he faced. The Oilers are a high-scoring team but they do adjust to playoff hockey in April by grinding out lower-scoring games. They have now played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total in April. Edmonton has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Oilers have played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (31) and the Los Angeles Kings (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row after their 122-113 victory at home against the Timberwolves as an 8.5-point favorite in Game Two on Wednesday. Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. And while they allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots, that was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. The Nuggets held Minnesota to no more than 27 points in three of the four quarters in Game Two after limiting them to 80 points in Game One — and that was on the heels of only giving up 95 points to the up-tempo Sacramento team (albeit with their backups playing) in the final game of the regular season. Denver has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Nuggets took a 64-49 lead at halftime on Wednesday — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding a halftime lead of 15 or more points. Denver goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The bigger problem for this team is that there can experience scoring lulls on the other end of the court. They exploded for 40 points in the third quarter on Wednesday but only scored 73 points for the rest of the game. They have scored 107 or fewer points in four of their last eight games including those 80 points in Game One. Aaron Gordon is doing an outstanding job in slowing down Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has scored only 21 combined points in this series on 8 of 27 shooting. He has committed nine turnovers and gotten to the free throws line only four times. Game Two flew Over the 222.5-point total — but Minnesota has played 16 of their last 19 home games Uner the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where the Under has an 11-4-1 record in their last 16 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the T-Wolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Buffalo Sabres (12). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (39-35-7) has won two games in a row after their 3-2 win against Carolina on Monday. Buffalo (40-34-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 6-2 loss at New Jersey on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Senators began the month still in a position to make a run to earn the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs — but a three-game losing streak put them out of reach. They have since scored a combined ten goals in upsetting Tampa Bay and the Hurricanes to begin the week. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. In their last five games, they are scoring 3.4 Goals-Per-Game — but they are surrendering 4.0 Goals-Per-Game during that stretch. Goaltending has been an issue all season — and they send out Mads Sogaard tonight to get more work in before the season ends. In her 138 minutes between the pipes this month, Sogaard has a 3.91 Goals-Against-Average and a .857 save percentage. Most of his 18 appearances this season have been at home. This is his seventh start and eighth appearance on the road this year where he has been saddled with a 3.94 GAA and a .857 save percentage. The Over is 7-2-1 in the Senators’ last 10 games against Atlantic Division rivals. The Over is 4-1-2 in Buffalo’s last 7 games against Atlantic Division foes. The Sabres have played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing five or more goals — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing six or more goals in their last contest. The Over is also 19-5-2 in Buffalo’s last 26 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. They return home where they are allowing 4.0 Goals-Per-Game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games on home ice. Craig Anderson appears to be their likely goaltender tonight to make his first start this month. In four starts in March, Anderson had a 4.76 GAA and a .841 save percentage. In his 12 games and 11 starts at home, Anderson has a 3.28 GAA and a .905 save percentage. Buffalo is two points ahead of the Senators in the division and also not making the postseason — and the Over is 6-1-1 in the Sabres’ last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Ottawa has won the last two meetings between these two teams after beating them by a 3-1 score on January 1st. The Sabres have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Buffalo Sabres (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) and the San Diego State Aztecs (702) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-76 upset victory against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. San Diego State (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 57-56 upset win against Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: FAU made 48.1% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. And they allowed Kansas State to nail 46.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 contests. The Owls have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days between contests. FAU is a good defensive team that ranks 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road — and they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. But the Owls score -4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home as well. And they are very dependent on making 3-point shots with 44.0% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 35th in the nation. They are a similar but not quite as dynamic opponent as Alabama — and the Aztecs coaxed the Crimson Tide into missing 24 of their 27 shots from 3-point range in the Sweet Sixteen and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game going into that contest with San Diego State — and FAU is not much better with their consistency rating being 219th in the nation. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting FAU’s scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this mid-major Cinderella. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 282nd in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 27.8% rate which is the second-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 22.2% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Owls average 10 made 3s per game — and the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average eight or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 345th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after holding five or more straight opponents to no higher than 40% shooting from the field. But a concern for San Diego State is that their scoring fall by -5.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road. They have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: FAU has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. San Diego State has played 7 straight Unders on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) and the San Diego State Aztecs (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (665) and the North Texas Mean Green (666) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (29-9) has won four in a row — and 12 of their last 13 contests — after their 88-86 win in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. North Texas (30-7) has won four in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — with their 56-54 win against Wisconsin as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UAB has seen the Over go 30-14-1 in their last 45 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, with that game with the Wolverines finishing Over the 151-point Total, the Blazers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. UAB scores +1.1 points per 100 possessions when on the road versus when they are playing at home — but they are also giving up +3.1 points per 100 possessions when away from home as opposed to when they are playing at home. The Blazers have also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total against conference opponents. North Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Mean Green have not allowed more than 59 points in their last four games — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points four straight games. North Texas plays outstanding defense — and they combine those skills by playing at a crawl’s pace. But the Mean Green allows +3.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. They are also scoring +2.7 more points per 100 possessions in their last ten games on the road versus their season average on the road. They are playing smaller lineups and at a quicker pace in this tournament with 6’10 Abou Ousmane now away from the team. North Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when playing for just the second time in the last seven days — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth meeting between these two teams — with each game seeing a steady increase in scoring. North Texas won the first game between these teams on January 21st with a 63-52 victory. They then won the rematch on February 29th by an 82-79 score in double-overtime that had a 62-62 score after regulation. UAB avenged those two losses in the Conference USA Semifinals with a 76-69 victory on March 10th. That game was played on a neutral court where the Blazers have now played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (665) and the North Texas Mean Green (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). THE SITUATION: Dallas (37-39) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 127-104 win at Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Philadelphia (49-26) has lost three in a row — and four of their last five — after a 116-111 loss at Denver as a 7-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks stepped to make 56.6% of their shots against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last 36 games. But Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better from the field in their last game. Despite that effort, the Mavericks are only scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions in their last ten games, ranking 23rd in the league over that span. The acquisition of Kyrie Irving has not worked in generating a healthy and cohesive “big two” with Luka Doncic who recently conceded he is miserable right now. Dallas is too reliant on making 3s — they lead the NBA by attempting 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They make 37.2% of their 3s which ranks ninth in the league — but it comes at the expense of being last in the NBA in rebounding. The Mavericks pull down only 22.9% of their missed shots, the lowest mark in the league. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point-spread win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. On the road, the Mavericks have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when the total is set at 230 or higher. An encouraging development for head coach Jason Kidd’s team was the play of their defense as they held the Pacers to 41.9% shooting. The Mavs’ defense has been bad this year — but a better effort on that end can make a difference. Dallas is tied for the last spot in the Western Conference playoff race — they would lose out to Oklahoma City to qualify for the play-in game so this is an important contest. The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia will want to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 50.6% of their shots, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. Philly has seen a dip in their 3-point shooting — they are making only 36.6% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games as opposed to their 38.6% shooting mark from behind the arc overall. But the Sixers are defending the perimeter better as of late as they rank second in the NBA by holding their opponents to hit just 32.1% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games. In their last ten games, Philly ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Back at home, the 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams not winning at least 40% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Joel Embiid and James Harden are listed as questionable tonight with nagging injuries. While Embiid is an MVP candidate who excels at both ends of the court, Harden’s potential absence certainly helps our Under play. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655) and the Texas Longhorns (656) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (28-7) has won five of their last six games after their 89-75 upset victory against Houston as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Texas (29-8) has won seven games in a row with their 83-71 victory against Xavier as a 4-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami converted on 11 of their 25 (44%) shots from 3-point range en route to a 51.7% shooting percentage in that game which was the best effort in their last four games. But now they play a stout Longhorns defense that has played three opponents in this Big Dance that entered the game with a top-ten shooting percentage from behind the arc yet held those three foes to 18 of 60 (30%) shooting from 3-point range. The Hurricanes only made 30.2% of their shots in their opening game against Drake — so clunkers are in the repertoire. As it is, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. The Hurricanes have pulled off two straight upset wins after their 85-69 win against Indiana last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two games in a row — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games after two straight upset wins. Miami’s scoring drops by 3.8 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. But the dirty little secret about this Hurricanes team is how much better their defense has been when playing on the road. Not only are they allowing 11.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road in hostile environments or neutral courts, but they are also giving up -12.8 fewer points per 100 possessions in their last ten games on the road versus their defensive efficiency at home — and their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road in their last ten games ranks 22nd in the nation. Two reasons for this improved play on defense: Miami is limiting their opponents to pulling down only 23.4% of their missed shots, ranking 24th in the nation, and their defensive foul rate ranks 11th in the nation in those last ten games. Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point-spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. There is some conventional wisdom out there that this Longhorns team wants to play at a fast pace — and that interim head coach Rodney Terry has pushed the pace more since taking over for Chris Beard. The numbers simply do not bare this out. Texas ranks 115th in the nation by averaging 68.5 adjusted possessions per game. In their last ten games, that number drops to 67.5 adjusted possessions per game. There were 72 mutual possessions on Friday against the Musketeers — but their two previous games in the Big Dance had 64 possessions apiece after playing three games in the Big 12 tournament where no more than 68 possessions were played. Does Miami want to push the pace? Maybe — but that will be difficult against a Longhorns’ defense that ranks third in the nation in transition defense. The Hurricanes have averaged 69.7 adjusted possessions in their last ten games on the road. But here are some numbers that scream out to me: Texas scores -7.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They also hold their opponents to -3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home, ranking fourth best in the nation. And in their last ten games overall, the Longhorns boast the second-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Longhorns have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Miami (FL) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655) and the Texas Longhorns (656). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643) and the Houston Cougars (644) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (27-7) has won four of their last five games after their 85-69 upset win against Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Houston (33-3) has won 15 of their last 16 games with their 81-64 victory against Auburn as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes shot 48.6% of their shots against the Hoosiers in their best shooting effort in their last three games. They also pulled down 19 offensive rebounds which led to 29 second-chance points. That level of productivity is not likely to continue tonight against this Cougars team that holds their opponents to 27.9% shooting in the midrange. Miami (FL) has played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. And while that game finished Over the 145-point total installed for that game, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Hurricanes do see their scoring drop by -5.5 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But while defense seems to be the weakness of head coach Larranaga’s team, they do give up -11.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road on neutral courts or in hostile environments. And Larranaga has his team peaking on defense at this point of the season. Miami (FL) ranks 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games on the road. The improvement is sharpest in defensive rebounding with their last ten opponents away from home rebounding only 24.7% of their missed shots, ranking 50th in the nation. Miami also ranks ninth in the nation in defensive foul rate in their last ten games on the road. Houston might have played their best 20 minutes of the season in the second half against Auburn by scoring a whopping 41 points against the stout Tigers’ defense. But the defense played a big role in that final 20 minutes as they held Auburn to just four baskets on 17% shooting from the field. The Cougars have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. Houston is scoring -3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road in their last ten games as compared to their season scoring efficiency away from home this season. It is the Cougars’ defense that leads the way for head coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 36.1%. They lead the nation by blocking 16.8% of their opponent’s shots. Houston will also bring a slow pace to this game as they rank 342nd in the nation with only 63.3 adjusted possessions per game. The Under is a decisive 43-21-1 in their last 65 games against teams with a winning record in the Sampson era.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court laying 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. The Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643) and the Houston Cougars (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (503) and the Toronto Raptors (504). THE SITUATION: Indiana (32-40) has lost three of their last four games after their 115-109 loss at Charlotte as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Toronto (35-37) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 118-111 loss at Milwaukee as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers lost to the Hornets despite holding them to 45.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten games. But they only shot 45.1% from the field themselves which was the worst shooting performance in their last three games. Indiana has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did get back rookie Benedict Mathurin for this contest who scored 18 points in the losing effort. But the team misses Tyrese Haliburton who has been out for five straight games with a knee injury — and he is questionable to play tonight. The offense has not suffered with Haliburton — the team is making 48.3% of their shots in their last five games which have generated 117.4 Points-Per-Game. Both of those marks are above their season averages of 115.8 PPG and a 46.6% field goal percentage. But the Pacers' defense has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots which has resulted in them scoring 122.2 PPG, a 3.9 PPG bump above their season average. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. And in their last 33 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have played 22 of these games Over the Total. Toronto only made 44.4% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Acquiring Jakob Poetl from San Antonio at the trade deadline has ignited their offensive attack that sorely needed another big man in the middle. They have made 49.7% of their shots in their last five games which have generated 119.6 PPG. But the defense for the Raptors remains an issue as they have allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Their last five opponents have made 50.1% of their shots against them which is resulting in 113.6 PPG. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, the Raptors have then played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they have played  6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Furthermore, Toronto has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto will be looking to avenge a 122-114 upset loss at Indiana as a 1.5-point favorite on the road back on January 22nd — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (503) and the Toronto Raptors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (843) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (844) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Farleigh Dickinson (21-15) has won five of their last six games after their 63-58 upset victory against Purdue as a 23-point underdog on Friday. Florida Atlantic (32-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 66-65 upset victory against Memphis as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Part of the Knights' success in shocking the Boilermakers was holding them to 35.8% shooting — although Purdue’s 19.2% shooting percentage from behind the arc had something to do with some nervy Boilermakers’ shooters. Fairleigh Dickinson will continue to work hard on the defensive end of the court. The Knights have held their last four opponents to no better than 41.9% shooting and no more than 67 points — and these last four opponents have averaged just 59 Points-Per-Game. But while Fairleigh Dickinson’s hopes rely on their 3-point shooting, they only made 7 of their 23 (30.4%) shots from behind the arc and settled for a 38.7% shooting clip overall on Friday. The Knights have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning three of their last four games. FAU beat Memphis with the Tigers making 43.1% of their shots which was actually the Owls’ worst defensive effort in their last four games. In their last ten games on the road, FAU ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to just 27.7% shooting from behind the arc which is the seventh lowest mark in the nation during that span. But the Owls also score -4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road on neutral courts or in hostile environments. The Under is 19-7-1 in FAU’s last 27 games on a neutral court — and they have played 7 straight Unders on a neutral court with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Florida Atlantic has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Second Round NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (843) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (769) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (27-7) has won three in a row — and 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 77-51 victory against Bradley as a 2-point favorite in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 5th. Miami (FL) (25-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 85-78 loss to Duke as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Drake won all three of their games in their Arch Madness by at least 12 points while shooting 47.1% or better from the field in each game. But the Bulldogs have then played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning at least three games in a row by double-digits. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight games. Drake has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Bulldogs’ efficiency on offense drops by -2.4 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. Now they face an angry Hurricanes team that allowed Duke to nail 54.9% of their shots last week which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Miami (FL) lost Norchad Omier early in that game to an ankle injury — and his absence was felt in their interior defense. At 6’7, Omier and Jordan Miller are the two tallest players in their starting five lineup. While he helps their offensive efforts by scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game this season, he is important for their frontcourt defense and keeping opponents off their offensive glass. Duke pulled down 36.0% of their missed shots with Omier missing most of that game. The Hurricanes tighten things up on that end of the court tonight as they have played 8 straight Unders after allowing 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after slowing 85 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Miami has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. According to their Adjusted Efficiency numbers, the Hurricanes allow  -10.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total played on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Drake has played 4 straight games Under the Total played on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (769) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (871) and the Boise State Broncos (872) in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-7) has won six games in a row after their 91-76 victory against New Mexico as a 3.5-point victory yesterday in the quarterfinals of this tournament. Boise State (24-8) has won two of their last three games after their 87-76 victory against UNLV as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies scored 91 points despite a 48.4% field goal percentage which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. Utah State ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that mark improves to 11th in the nation when they are playing away from home. The Aggies are fourth in the nation by nailing 39.5% of their 3-pointers — and they make 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. Utah State has played 6 straight Overs after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after a point-spread victory. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Aggies’ last 8 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on a neutral court. Boise State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. The Broncos are a good offensive team that can keep up with the Aggies’ scoring. In their last ten games away from home, they rank 39th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make 37.0% of their 3-pointers in conference playing, ranking fourth in the Mountain West. And while the Aggies attempt 24 shots from behind the arc per game, Boise State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who attempt 21 or more shots from downtown per contest. Despite their good defensive numbers, the Broncos tend to play higher or lower-scoring games based on their opponent. They have scored 80 or more points in three of their last eight games. They have given up 74 or more points in four of their last five games despite an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 19th in the nation. Boise State has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. They have also played 26 of their last 37 games in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos will be looking to avenge an 86-73 loss at Utah State last Saturday — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (871) and the Boise State Broncos (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (819) and the North Texas Mean Green (820) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (24-8) has won seven games in a row with their 87-60 victory against Rice as a 14-point favorite on Thursday. North Texas (26-6) has won three in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests with their 74-46 victory against Louisiana Tech as a 9-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Center at the Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a clash of styles with North Texas playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation while UAB ranks 39th in the nation with their games averaging 70.5 adjusted possessions per game. We bet numbers — and we are getting value with the Total in the 126 range. If the Blazers can successfully amp up the pace, we will win this one comfortably. But even if the Mean Green impose their will, I still think a rock fight finds its way over the number. North Texas is an outstanding defensive team — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rises by 3.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments even after they stymied the Bulldogs to just 30.4% shooting yesterday. The Mean Green has played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after both a straight-up win and a point-spread victory. North Texas forces turnovers -- but this aggressiveness can get them in trouble as they rank 344th in the nation in foul rate. And they are a solid offensive team that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the conference and do not see much drop off when playing away from home. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. UAB ranks 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score 80.9 Points-Per-Game when on the road. They are scoring 84.0 PPG with a 47.4% field goal percentage in their last five games. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and the Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a point-spread victory. The Blazers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas swept the two regular season games with neither seeing more than 124 combined points in regulation (the rematch in Denton on February 9th went to double overtime after a 62-62 score after 40 minutes — so the 82-79 final score is deceiving). But UAB has played 3 of their 4 games Over the Toal when attempting to avenge a loss on the road this season — and they have played 7 of their 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (819) and the North Texas Mean Green (820). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (769) and the Arizona Wildcats (770) in the Quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament. THE SITUATION: Stanford (14-18) won for the third time in their last four games with a 73-62 victory against Utah in a pick ‘em contest yesterday in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. Arizona (25-6) comes into this event having lost two of their last three games after an 82-73 loss at UCLA as a 5-point underdog last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal advanced despite making only 41.9% of their shots from the field against the Utes which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They are still making 47.5% of their shots in their last five games. Stanford ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 10th in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. Their productivity does not decline when playing away from Palo Alto either — they rank 4th in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. The Cardinal has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by 10 or more points against a Pac-12 opponent. Furthermore, Stanford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing on the road against a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. The Cardinal has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in March. Arizona only made 47.4% of their shots against the Bruins which was the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Wildcats rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 5th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5% with top-20 marks in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. When playing away from home, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency improves to 3rd in the nation. Arizona also plays at a blistering pace as they average 72.7 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 6th in the nation — and that mark rises to 73.6 adjusted possessions per game when playing away from home. The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when playing for the second time in the last seven days. They have also played 16 of their last 23 road games Over the Total against conference rivals. Furthermore, Arizona has played 9 straight games in March Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford upset the Wildcats in their lone meeting this season back on February 11th as a 7.5-point home underdog  — and Arizona has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (769) and the Arizona Wildcats (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Privateers (306559) and the Northwestern State Demons (306560) in the Semifinals of the Southland Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-19) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 82-78 upset win against Southeast Louisiana as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Northwestern State (21-10) has won two of their last three games after an 81-64 win against Incarnate Word as a 10.5-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at The Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Privateers advanced to the semifinals of the Southland Conference Tournament despite making only 44.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. New Orleans should shoot better tonight as they lead the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 55.0%. The Over is 46-22-1 in their last 69 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. And they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning two straight games against conference opponents. The Privateers will push the pace in this game. They rank 24th in the nation by averaging 71.4 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 72.9 adjusted possessions per game in their last ten games when playing away from home, ranking 14th in the nation. New Orleans has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is also 25-7-1 in their last 33 games played on a neutral court — and the Privateers have played 18 of their last 23 conference tournament games Over the Total. Northwestern State has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival in their previous game. They have all played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. The Demons rank second in the Southland Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Their attack is fueled by them pulling down 33.4% of their missed shots, ranking second in the conference. They should have success on the offensive glass tonight against this Privateers team that is last in the Southland Conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 34.4% of their missed shots. Northwestern State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court — and the over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with Northwestern State winning the first encounter on the road by an 88-65 score before New Orleans upset them on the road in the rematch on February 18th by a 68-65 score as a 10.5-point underdog. The Demons have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* CBB Southland Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Privateers (306559) and the Northwestern State Demons (306560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (867) and the Furman Paladins (868) in the Finals of the Southern Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UT-Chattanooga (18-16) has won three straight games after their 74-62 win against Wofford as a 4-point favorite yesterday. Furman (26-7) has won five games in a row after their 83-80 win in overtime against Western Carolina as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Moccasins held Wofford to just 38.7% shooting yesterday — that was the fourth time in their last five games and the sixth in their last eight contests where they held their opponent to 42.6% or lower shooting from the floor. Chattanooga ranks second in the Southern Conference when playing on the road by holding their opponents to 48.8% shooting inside the arc. The Moccasins have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a conference opponent — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Chattanooga has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s. Furman only shot 39.0% from the field yesterday which was the worst shooting effort of the season for them. But while I often conclude that outlier efforts like that are aberrations — in this instance, I suspect it is nerves kicking for this Paladins team playing with the weight of expectations. This team has not made the NCAA Tournament since 1980 — and they lost the title game of the Southern Conference Tournament last year against this Chattanooga team so winning this game has been the goal for 365 days. Furman is a good defensive team that led the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It starts with the Paladins’ half-court defense as they rank second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.5% while ranking second in the Southern Conference in both 2-point and 3-point defense. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points per game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Yesterday’s game flew Over the 149-point total because of overtime (the score was 72-72 after regulation time) — and Furman has played 8 straight road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Paladins have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Furman swept the two games between these teams in the regular season with the last meeting being on February 1st with the Paladins winning by a 79-58 score. The Moccasins have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. UT-Chattanooga has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and Furman has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Southern Conference Tournament Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (867) and the Furman Paladins (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Semifinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament between the St. Francis-PA Red Flash (306527) and the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306528). THE SITUATION: St. Francis-PA (13-17) has won four of their last five games after their 83-69 win against Central Connecticut State as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Farleigh Dickinson (18-14) has won three of their last four games with their 83-75 win against St. Francis-NY as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Lots of Overs this week — I’m just following the numbers. The data points to the Over for this one — even before I then realize that these two teams are top-two statistical offenses in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Northeast Conference while registering two of the worst defensive metrics in the nation. St. Francis-PA ranks 356th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. And with their win against Central Connecticut State finishing Over, they have then played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their previous game. After playing their last three games on the road, they go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing three or more games in a row at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games on the road — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The St. Francis-PA offense is bolstered by their 3-point shooting as they rank 38th in the nation by nailing 36.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Now they play a Knights team ranking 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Farleigh Dickinson ranks 362nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they also lead the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Knights have scored 169 points in their last two games — and they have palled 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. They stay at home where the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games at home when it is just their second game in seven days.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with St. Francis-PA winning the most recent game by an 82-72 score on February 23rd — and Farleigh Dickinson has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Semifinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament between the St. Francis-PA Red Flash (306527) and the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Upstate Spartans (306521) and the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306422) in the Semifinals of the Big South Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: USC-Upstate (16-14) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 77-76 upset win against Gardner-Webb as a 4-point underdog yesterday. UNC-Asheville (25-7) joined them in the semifinals of this tournament with their 75-66 win against Charleston Southern as a 9-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans are a good shooting team — they rank second in the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 52.7% based on the strength of their interior shooting. USC-Upstate ranks second in the conference by making 53.6% of their shots inside the arc. The Spartans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. USC-Upstate is playing their best basketball of the season now with three straight victories along with seven wins in their last eight games. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against conference rivals — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Betting Unders for these early tip-offs on neutral courts has been a fashionable play in the past — but we bet numbers rather than being a zombie simply for the situation. This Total is dropping — giving us more value on the Over. While these early tips can see groggy teams struggling to shoot — the Spartans bring energy by forcing turnovers. They rank 58th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark improves to a 21.1% defensive turnover clip against conference opponents. They forced 17 turnovers representing 23.6% of Gardner-Webb’s possessions yesterday — and now the Bulldogs may be vulnerable in this area. UNC-Asheville ranks 313th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.3% of their possessions — and they turn it over in 20.7% of their conference possessions. Forcing turnovers tends to create easier scoring opportunities in transition which is reinforced by the Spartans' effective 2-point shooting. USC-Upstate has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. UNC-Asheville only made 35.8% of their shots yesterday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 22 games. The Bulldogs should shoot much better today after that outlier effort. They rank 32nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They rank seventh in the nation with a 39.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and that number improves to 40.6% in conference play. UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning five or more games in a row. The Bulldogs are going to get their share of points at the free throw line — they rank 12th in the nation in free throw rate. The downside to USC-Upstate’s pressure on the basketball is that they foul too much — they rank 354th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The charity strip should help this game finish Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings after USC-Upstate upset the Bulldogs by a 76-70 score as a 3-point home underdog on February  4th. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Big South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Upstate Spartans (306521) and the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306422). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (867) and the Colorado State Rams (868). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (21-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 94-80 win against Fresno State as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado State (13-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 63-46 loss at San Jose State as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lobos rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least 90 points. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival. New Mexico has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They go back on the road where they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments boosted by their 39.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc, ranking 9th in the nation. The Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road. The Lobos rank 306th in the nation in defensive foul rate when playing on the road — and the Rams make 76.1% of their free throws on their home court. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 38.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But the Rams only shot 36.5% from the field in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 24 contests. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game where they did not score more than 50 points. And while they only scored 22 points in the first half of that game, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half in their last game. The Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 13 games after a point-spread loss, the Over is 10-2-1. While that game with San Jose State finished far below the 136.5-point total, Colorado State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. The Rams should approach their 80.4 Points-Per-Game scoring average when playing at home tonight. They rank 13th in the nation with a 56.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Lobos allow their opponents to convert on 50.7% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 205th in the nation — and their conference opponents have converted on 53.6% of their 2-pointers against them. Colored State ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court — and they rank 17th in the nation by making 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc at home. The Rams have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have 5 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: New Mexico won the first meeting between these two teams by an 88-69 score on December 28th — and the Rams have played all 3 of their games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road this season. The Lobos have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total listed in the 150s. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (867) and the Colorado State Rams (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (841) and the Ball State Cardinals (842). THE SITUATION: Toledo (24-6) rides a 14-game winning streak after a 99-65 victory as a 15-point favorite on Tuesday. Ball State (20-10) has lost three of their last four games after an 87-83 loss at Akron as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets are nailing 54.4% of their shots in their last five games which helps them generate 92.8 Points-Per-Game in those contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. Toledo ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rank 275th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they are scoring 81.5 PPG but allowing 77.7 PPG. The Rockets rank 2nd in the nation by making 40.1% of their shots — and that mark drops only slightly to a 39.0% clip when playing on the road, ranking 14th best in the nation. Toledo has played 14 of their last 20 road games Over the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Ball State has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 29 of their last 42 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the third time in seven days. Ball State ranks 6th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they rank 23rd in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. When playing at home, they make 48.4% of their shots which generates 80.4 PPG. They have played 5 straight Overs at home — and they have played 22 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 150s. But the Cardinals have given up 77.4 PPG in their last five games — and now they host this Rockets’ team that is so good with their 3-point shooting having allowed their guests to nail 38.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 349th in the nation. Ball State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 90-83 score on January 3rd — and Toledo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (841) and the Ball State Cardinals (842). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (306591) and the Kennesaw State Owls (306592) in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (20-12) has won four straight games and seven of their last nine after their 83-70 win against Stetson on Tuesday. Kennesaw State (24-8) has won three in a row and six of their last seven after their 67-66 victory against Queens-University of Charlotte as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. The Owls are the host team at their Convocation Center in Kennesaw, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Lipscomb made 47.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Bisons rank 34th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.0% — and they are third in the Atlantic Sun with a 37.6% shooting clip from behind the arc, ranking third in the conference. Lipscomb has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread win — and they have played 7 straight overs when playing for the second time in the last three days. The Bisons are playing at a quicker pace than they were earlier in the season. While they are averaging 69.6 adjusted possessions per game, that mark has risen to 71.1 adjusted possessions per game in their last ten contests, ranking 31st in the nation. They are making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 85.4 Points-Per-Game, a +8.8 PPG bump over their season average. But they are also allowing their opponents to make 45.2% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 79.6 PPG. On the road, the Bisons have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher on their home court. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 145-149.5-point range. Kennesaw State has seen the Over go 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after a win at home against an Atlantic Sun rival. They have also played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Owls will be vulnerable against the Bisons' 3-point shooting — they rank 10th in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But Kennesaw State can score — they rank 27th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc and rank 26th in getting to the free-throw line. On their home court, the Owls are making 48.6% of their shots which is generating 81.4 PPG which is +6.0 PPG above their season average. The Over is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games on their home court — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when favored or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Kennesaw State won the first meeting between these two teams by an 85-72 score at home as a 4-point favorite — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (306591) and the Kennesaw State Owls (306592). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306551) and the Houston Christian Huskies (306552). THE SITUATION: SE Louisiana (17-13) has won three games in a row after a 78-75 win in overtime as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Houston Christian (10-20) had won two games in a row before a 68-64 loss at Nicholls State as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions only scored 22 points in the first half on Saturday while ending the game with a 42.3% shooting percentage which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They had nailed at least 50% of their shots in their previous three games — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five contests which is resulting in 78.4 Points-Per-Game. SE Louisiana has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Over is 38-15-1 in their last 54 games after a point-spread win. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals. The Lions are not a good defensive team — they rank 317th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their home hosts to 46.7% shooting when playing on the road which is resulting in them giving up 77.2 PPG. The Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 road games — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record a home. Furthermore, SE Louisiana has played 12 of their last 16 games in conference play Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when favored. Houston Christian only made 35.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contest. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Houston Christian returns home where they are making 51.3% of their shots which is generating 88.1 PPG, a +9.8 PPPG bump over their season average. They are 30th in the nation by making 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and now they host a Lions team that allows Southland Conference opponents to make a whopping 41.5% of their shots from downtown. But Houston Christian does not play a lick of defense — they rank dead last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. They allow their opponents to make 37.3% of their 3-pointers and 58.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 336th and 306th in the nation respectively. They don’t force turnovers — and they rank 306th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.4% of their missed shots. What the Huskies cannot do on defense, they make up for by playing at a fast pace. Their opponents average just 16.4 seconds per possession, the third fastest rate in the nation — and the 70.8 adjusted possessions per game in their contests is the 36th most in the nation. Houston Christian allows their guests to make 48.3% of their shots on their home court which is producing 88.1 PPG. The Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court. They have also played 22 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 5 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Southeast Louisiana won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-59 score as a 10-point home favorite on January 5th — but Houston Christian has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southland Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306551) and the Houston Christian Huskies (306552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (763) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (764). THE SITUATION: UAB (21-8) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 85-57 win against Rice as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. Western Kentucky (15-13) won for the fourth time in their last six games with a 76-66 victory against Louisiana Tech as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blazers held the Owls to host 32.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 28 games. The Over is 27-9-1 in their last 37 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Over is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Now they go on the road where they are scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And while their game with the Bulldogs two days ago finished Under the 143.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They stay at home where they are second in Conference USA by nailing 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is helping them score 78.5 PPG. The Hilltoppers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: UAB will have revenge on their mind after losing to Western Kentucky by an 80-78 score as a 10.5-point home favorite on January 11th. The Blazers should score more points in this rematch. They rank 7th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots. The Hilltoppers rank 271st in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.3% of their missed shots. UAB also nails 37.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 22nd in the nation. Western Kentucky ranks 327th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range, and that mark rises to a 38.4% clip when playing at home against Conference USA rivals. The Blazers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a loss. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (763) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between The Citadel Bulldogs (621) and the Mercer Bears (622). THE SITUATION: The Citadel (10-20) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine contests with their 78-70 loss at East Tennessee State as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Mercer (12-18) has lost five games in a row after their 70-67 loss at Furman as a 13-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citadel allowed the Moccasins to nail 50.0% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Bulldogs should tighten things up on the defensive end of the court in their final regular season game before the Southern Conference Tournament — they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference rival — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. The Citadel’s bigger problems are with making baskets as they rank 287th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 43.3% of their shots on the road — and they don’t crash the offensive glass either as they rank 307th in the nation by pulling down only 20.6% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total in February. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Mercer has seen the Under go 38-17-2 in their last 57 games after losing their previous game — and they have played ten of their last fourteen games Under the Total after losing their previous game. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their previous game by six points or less. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point-spread loss. And in their last 17 games when playing their second game in seven days, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Mercer also struggles to make baskets as they rank 10th in the Southern Conference and 288th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Bears are a solid defensive team that holds their guests to just 42.4% shooting when playing at home which results in them scoring 68.2 Points-Per-Game. The Under is 14-4-2 in their last 20 games on their home court — and the Under is 36-16-2 in Mercer’s last 54 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Mercer won the first meeting between these two teams by a 74-65 score as a 2-point favorite on January 28th — and The Citadel has played 17 of their last 20 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between The Citadel Bulldogs (621) and the Mercer Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Abilene Christian Wildcats (893) and the Grand Canyon Anteaters (894). THE SITUATION: Abilene Christian (13-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 77-62 loss to San Houston State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Grand Canyon (16-10) has lost two games in a row after their 77-76 upset loss to the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley as a 12-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats only made 38.9% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Abilene Christian has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. The Wildcats have played six straight Overs — but not only have they then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game but they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Abilene Christian allowed Sam Houston State to nail 55.1% of their shots in the loss last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field including three of their four games Over the Total this season under those circumstances. The Wildcats are second-to-last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. Furthermore, they are last in the WAC in putting their conference opponents on the free throw line — and Grand Canyon leads the conference by making 74.7% of their shots in conference play. Abilene Christian goes back on the road where they allow their home hosts to nail 50.4% of their shots which results in 77.1 Points-Per-Game which is 7.5 PPG above their season average.  The Wildcats have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total on the road after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total in February. Grand Canyon has played 8 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a loss at home to a WAC rival. Furthermore, the Over is 35-16-4 in the Anteaters’ last 55 games after a point spread loss including 12 Overs in the last 15 games after not covering the point spread. And while that game finished above the 147.5-point total for that game, they have then played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their previous game. Grand Canyon held UT Rio Grande Valley to just 37.7% shooting after holding Seattle to 36.4% shooting — but those were both their top two defensive efforts in their previous nine games. They stay at home where they are last in the WAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. nit the Anteaters make 47.5% of their shots at home which generates 80.3 PPG. In conference play, they sport a 56.5% effective field goal percentage on their home court, ranking second in the WAC — and they are nailing 43.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home in conference play. They have played 19 of their last 26 games at home Over the Total including eleven of their last thirteen home games. The Over is also 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Grand Canyon has also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Abilene Christian will be looking to avenge a 75-73 loss at home to Grand Canyon as a 2.5-point underdog on January 26th. The Anteaters have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Abilene Christian Wildcats (893) and the Grand Canyon Anteaters (894). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (65) and the Anaheim Ducks (66). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (29-18-8) has won five of their last seven games after a 5-2 victory against Buffalo on Monday. Anaheim (17-33-5) has lost three games in a row after their 7-3 loss to Buffalo on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kings have scored 15 combined goals in their last three games — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Furthermore, the Kings have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Pheonix Copley is their goaltender tonight — and besides his parents spelling his first name contrary to the spelling of the biggest city in Arizona, he is also saddled with some disparate home/road splits. While Copley has a 2.46 Goals-Against-Average and a .910 save percentage at home, those numbers rise to a 3.03 GAA and a .896 save percentage in his 11 starts on the road. Los Angeles scores 3.2 Goals-Per-Game on the road — and they allow 3.5 Goals-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 25 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Furthermore, the Kings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against fellow Pacific Division rivals. The Over is 39-15-2 in Anaheim’s last 56 games against division rivals. The Ducks have also played 7 straight Overs after a loss by three or more goals — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where nine or more combined goals were scored. They have played 7 straight Overs after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. In their last three games, Anaheim has surrendered 20 combined goals with their opponent scoring at least six goals in all three contests. Their talented goaltender John Gibson appears to have had the morale beaten out of him during the organization’s rebuilding process. In his 37 games this season, he has a 4.05 GAA and a .897 save percentage — and he has a 4.89 GAA and a .892 save percentage in three starts this month. When playing at home, the Ducks are allowing 4.1 Goals-Per-Game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on home ice. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Anthem will be losing to avenge a 4-1 loss in Los Angeles to the Kings on December 20th — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (65) and the Anaheim Ducks (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored only 23 points against the Bengals — but the game script led that to be a lower-scoring game with Kansas City exposing a battered Cincinnati offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked five times in that game — and the Bengals ran for just 71 yards on 17 carries on that game. The Chiefs held Cincinnati to just 309 total yards — but they will face a much stiffer challenge against this Eagles team that probably has the best offensive line in the NFL. The Kansas City offense went into that game with Patrick Mahomes limited with his mobility given the right ankle injury he suffered the previous week against Jacksonville. To then compound matters, the Chiefs lost three wide receivers to in-game injuries that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Frankly, I completely believe that the AFC Championship Game goes Over the Total if even one of those receivers was still available to complement Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the passing game in the fourth quarter of that game. Not only does KC probably score another three to seven points, but the Bengals then are pressured to play catch-up — and the game script changes. The Chiefs should at least get to their 28.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average against the Eagles — and they scored 32.8 PPG while generating 430.2 Yards-Per-Game in their nine games away from home. Kansas City has played three straight Unders — but they have then played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of those three wideouts. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 6 straight Overs after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been effective in his two playoff games since returning from his shoulder injury — and now he gets another two weeks to rest and recuperate for this contest. He will have the green light to run the ball now with everything at stake in this final game of the season. Philadelphia scores 28.7 PPG — and in their eight games away from home, that mark rises to 29.4 PPG and 398.3 total YPG. The Eagles’ elite offensive line should be able to create running lanes to jettison the Philly ground game — they lead the NFL with their rushing attack using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs allow 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents to generate 5.1 YPC but teams too often abandon their running game because they are trailing Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. The Eagles will not abandon their running game so hastily — and they should continue to move the football. And while Philadelphia has not allowed more than 16 points in three straight games, that speaks more to getting to play the New York Giants twice in a row (once with a backup quarterback) before getting the Niners last week who lacked a quarterback who could reliably throw a forward pass in the second half of that game. Philadelphia has allowed 32 or more points four times this season — and the best quarterback they have played against this season was either Jared Goff in Week One, Trevor Lawrence in early October (before his big step in growth after Thanksgiving) or the smirking Aaron Rodgers in November. OK, I neglected to consider Dak Prescott in that NFC East rematch in December — and Dallas scored 40 points in that game. Choose your fighter … none are Mahomes. This is a new challenge. The Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.


FINAL TAKE: After two lower-scoring games in the last two Super Bowls, I am expecting this contest to see a combined score of at least 50 points. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (839) and the Siena Saints (840). THE SITUATION: Niagara (12-9) has won three games in a row after their 76-73 victory against Canisius as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Siena (15-8) had won two games in a row before their 71-66 upset loss at Manhattan as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Purple Eagles have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Niagara goes back on the road where they rank 48th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.0% — and they rank in the top-64 in the nation in 3-point defense and inside the arc. And while the Purple Eagles rank 250th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 101.6, that mark plummets to 95.5 when playing on the road in hostile environments, ranking 306th in the nation. They only make 44.7% of their shots inside the arc in these true road games, ranking  307th in the nation. Niagara has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road — including five of their last six games away from home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Siena allowed Manhattan to make 44.9% of their shots on Friday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Saints have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark in conference play in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Siena has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in three days. They return home where they are making only 47.8% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 298th in the nation. The Saints have played their last 4 games at home Under the Total — and the Under is a decisive 30-12-2 in their last 44 games at home against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less when playing on the road. Siena has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints see 66.6 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 209th in the nation — and they average 19.0 seconds per possession, ranking 325th in the nation. Siena’s opponents average 16.9 seconds per possession which is the 45th quickest clip in the nation — but now they play a Purple Eagles team that averages 20.4 seconds per game, ranking 361st in the nation. Niagara averages 62.3 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 353rd in the nation. Both of these teams are going to crawl in this game. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (839) and the Siena Saints (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (637) and the Colorado State Rams (638). THE SITUATION: UNLV (14-7) has won two in a row after their 68-62 victory against Nevada as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado State (10-12) has lost three games in a row after their 80-59 loss at Boise State as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams only made 41.1 of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. This is a surprise since Colorado State ranks 20th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8% — and they are 13th in the nation by nailing 56.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Rams also allowed the Broncos to make 59.2% of their shots — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 7-1-1 in Colorado State’s last 9 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And while the Rams have lost four of their last five games, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are scoring 81.3 Points-Per-Game. Colorado State makes 41.3% of their shots from behind the arc on their home court, the 30th-best mark in the country. The Runnin’ Rebels are last in the Mountain West Conference by allowing their opponents to nail 41.5% of their 3-pointers. UNLV also ranks 246th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.8%. The Over is 6-0-1 in the Rams’ last 7 games at home. Furthermore, Colorado State has played 6 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. But the Rams rank 9th in the Mountain West in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they are going to give up their share of points. UNLV held the Wolf Pack to just 36.4% shooting on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last 12 contests. And while that final score flew Under the 140.5 point total for that game, the Runnin’ Rebels have then played 5 straight Overs after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Now UNLV goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has seen three of their last five games go into overtime — including their 82-81 upset win in Las Vegas against the Runnin’ Rebels as a 5.5-point underdog on January 14th so perhaps we can catch a break with an extra five minutes in this one. We should not need the additional time — UNLV has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge and they have played 6 straight Overs when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (637) and the Colorado State Rams (638). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expected a higher-scoring game between the Cowboys and 49ers — but the game script progressed in a way that allowed head coach Kyle Shanahan to lean on his running game and not ask rookie quarterback Brock Purdy to do too much. The Niners ran the ball in 21 of their 31 plays in the second half. Dak Prescott’s two interceptions that ended likely ended Cowboys’ scoring drives played a big role in keeping that score low and not putting pressure on San Francisco to respond with a score of their own. After tying the score at 6-6 late in the second quarter, the 49ers never trailed the rest of the game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. And while the Niners have won the turnover battle in 11 straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after generating a +1 or better turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Brock Purdy continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. While the Niners were able to frustrate a Dallas offense with the inconsistent Prescott playing poorly, they also were able to focus their defensive energies on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb since the Cowboys lack a credible second receiving threat. The Eagles have two legitimate number-one options in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The 49ers are vulnerable against quality vertical passing attacks. They allowed 15 pass plays of more than 20 bar yards this season, tied for the 3rd most in the NFL. Cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward have both been burned by deep balls this season — Ward, in particular, struggled against Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf who has a similar physical profile to Philly’s Brown. The Eagles also deploy plenty of play-action passes — and the 49ers' defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 96 of 135 passes (71.1%) from play-action for 1077 yards, 7.98 yards-per-attempt, nine touchdowns, and a Passer Rating of 101.4. In the final week of the regular season, Las Vegas’ Jarrett Stidham torched the Niners secondary by completing 23 of 34 passes for 365 yards, three touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 108.1. The 49ers allowed eight of their 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards in the air to come from play-action — and four of Stidham’s eight explosive completions against them came from play-action. The Eagles will likely lift much from the Raiders’ offensive game plan earlier this month. Jalen Hurts showed few ill effects from his separated shoulder injury from last month against the Giants — he completed 16 of 24 passes for 154 with two touchdown passes while rushing for 34 yards and another touchdown. After taking a 28-0 halftime lead, there was no reason for Philly to push Hurts in the second half as they coasted to victory. The Eagles have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They held the Giants to just 227 total yards — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs at home after winning two games in a row. And while they held the Giants to only 23 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on grass. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (837) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (838). THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (16-3) has won three straight games after their 76-58 victory against CS-Bakersfield as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Hawai’i (15-5) has won three of their last four contests with their 67-63 upset win at UC-Riverside as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Hawai’i pulled the upset against the Highlanders by making 45.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Rainbow Warriors have played 6 straight Unders after an upset win against a Big West Conference rival — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after beating a conference rival in their last contest. Additionally, Hawai’i has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rainbow Warriors held UC-Riverside to just 31.9% to help earn this win. They rank 5th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.0%. Hawai’i is outstanding in defending the perimeter as they rank 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 25.5% shooting from behind the arc. But they also make things very difficult for their opponents inside the arc as they are only hitting 44.2% of their 2-point shots, ranking 16th in the nation. The Rainbow Warriors return home where they rank 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Hawai’i has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. UC-Santa Barbara comes off their worst defensive effort of the season after allowing the Roadrunners to nail 51.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up all year. The Gauchos survived by shooting 53.4% from the field themselves which was actually the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. UC-Santa Barbara has played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after winning their last game. Furthermore, the Gauchos have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. And while their last game finished Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from ranking 62nd in the nation on their home court to a rough 227th ranking in their eight true road games. But while ranking 243rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they dramatically improve in their away games on the road or neutral courts by ranking 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UC-Santa Barbara has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Gauchos have held their last five opponents to just 41.8% shooting which has resulted in only 57.6 Points-Per-Game. UC-Santa Barbara is an excellent shooting team inside the arc where they rank 23rd in the nation by making 55.5% of their 2-pointers. But Hawai’i can pack inside the paint against this team and dare them to take 3s where they rank 347th in the nation by making only 27.0% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Santa Barbara has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Rainbow Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB Big West Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (837) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals only gained 234 total yards last week against the Ravens — their 98-yard fumble recovery returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter made the winning difference in that game. Cincinnati lost left tackle Jonah Williams to a knee injury in that game — with La’el Collins and Alex Cappa also dealing with injuries, the Bengals are down three starters on their offensive line which is slowing down this offense. The Bengals only gained 257 total yards the previous week against Baltimore — and they managed only 237 total yards four games ago in their 34-23 win at Tampa Bay. Four of Cincinnati’s last five games have not seen more than 43 combined points scored. While Joe Burrow gets most of the headlines, the Bengals sport an underrated defense that has not allowed more than 18 points in three straight games and five of their last seven contests. The Under is 11-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The injuries on the offensive line are impacting the Bengals' rushing attack. After rushing for only 55 yards against the Ravens last week, they have not gained more than 73 rushing yards in four straight games. The Under is 17-6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 24 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in three or more games in a row. The Bengals go on the road where the Under is 25-10-3 in their last 38 games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bengals have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have played two straight games where 58 or more combined points were scored, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. The Bills outgained the Dolphins last week by 192 net yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by 100 or more yards. And while they held Miami to just 42 rushing yards, Buffalo has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. The Bills only allow 18.6 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 260.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents — and the Under is 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games against fellow AFC rivals. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week. Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York’s offense was clicking last week behind a confident Daniel Jones who completed 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones also ran for 78 additional yards operating head coach Brian Daboll’s offense that helped Josh Allen become a star. Jones will be fully unleashed in this game with the Giants playing with house money. New York should be able to move the ball with Jones offering an additional threat with his legs. The Eagles allowed 499 rushing yards from quarterbacks with 307 of those yards coming from scrambles — and both of those marks are the second-most in the NFL. Running back Saquon Barkley should be relatively rested for this contest as well after only running the ball nine times last week (for 53 yards with two touchdowns). New York has averaged 163 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and the Eagles are vulnerable against the run despite their late-season free-agent pickups of defensive tackles Ndamukong Sun and Lineal Joseph. Their last five opponents have all rushed for at least 115 yards — and those five teams averaged 130.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game against them. This Daboll offense leads the NFL in Red Zone efficiency according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they present a balanced attack inside the opponent’s 20-yard line by ranking 1st with the pass and 3rd with the run according to the DVOA numbers. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last game. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point-spread win. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia hosts this game where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC East — and the Over is 5-2-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (691) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (692). THE SITUATION: TCU (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 82-68 win against Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. West Virginia (10-7) has lost five games in a row after their 77-76 loss at Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers are desperate for a victory after dropping their first five games in conference play. Three of these losses were on the road — and four of the losses were by seven points or less. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy still ranks West Virginia ahead of the Horned Frogs with the Mountaineers ranked 24th in his rating system with TCU three spots behind at 27th. West Virginia is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 57th in the nation by pulling down 33.0% of their missed shots — and they should get plenty of second-chance points against the Horned Frogs. TCU ranks 265th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.9% of their missed shots — and they have been worse in conference play by allowing their Big 12 opponents to pull down 34.1% of their misses, ranking 9th in the conference. West Virginia has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Mountaineers have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Head coach Bob Huggins' team is struggling due to the play of their defense — they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are giving their opponents too many shots at the charity stripe as they rank 337th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. The Mountaineers have allowed their last five opponents to score 77.0 PPG. West Virginia has played 39 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. TCU only made 46.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — but they allowed the Wildcats to make 43.1% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests, so the short-term numbers point to a higher-scoring game tonight. The Horned Frogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They have also played 8 straight Overs after winning at least eight of their last ten games. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team should also get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight — they rank 27th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots. West Virginia is vulnerable on their defensive glass as they allow their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 182nd in the nation. TCU goes back on the road where they are scoring 76.5 PPG. They have played 5 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and West Virginia has played 25 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big 12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (691) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). THE SITUATION: Boston College (8-10) has lost three games in a row after their 85-63 loss to Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog. North Carolina (12-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 80-59 victory at Louisville as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tar Heels dominated the Cardinals on Saturday by holding them to just a 37.0% field goal percentage — the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But North Carolina is not an elite defensive team this season. After ranking 35th in the nation last year in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their trek to the national championship game, they have dropped to 58th in that metric this season. But the Tar Heels remain an outstanding offensive team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win of 20 or more points. They return home where they are making 48.1% of their shots which has resulted in 83.4 Points-Per-Game on their home court. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston College only made 38.2% of their shots on Saturday in their loss to the Demon Deacons — that was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. But the Eagles' defense continues to struggle as they allowed Wake Forest to nail 52.3% of their shots — and that came on the heels of them allowing Miami (FL) to shoot 60.4% from the field in their previous game. Boston College has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they allow their opponents to convert 49.5% of their shots. The Eagles have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is 8-0 at home this season — and Boston College has seen the Over go 33-16-2 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston College (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. Perhaps Jensen will help with the ground game for Tampa Bay's offense that has only averaged 77 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — but considering that their running backs are last in the league averaging 1.2 yards-after-contact, the problem is not with opening up holes at the line of scrimmage. If the Buccaneers lose tonight, they will go down with the ball in Brady’s hands. He is averaging 44 pass attempts per game — and we should not be surprised if he throws the ball at least 50 times tonight. A pass-heavy play script is a good recipe for the Over — especially when the number is below 50. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Buccaneers have allowed their last three opponents to average 369.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is +44.7 net YPG above their season average. That regressing unit presents a welcome opportunity for a Cowboys team that comes off an embarrassing loss where they only put up 182 total yards despite Dak Prescott playing for most of that game. Frankly, it was one of the worst efforts in his career as he completed just 14 of 37 passes for only 128 yards against the Eagles last week. Dallas has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Prescott missed time earlier in the season due to injury so tonight will be just the third time he has been under center following a game where he was their starting quarterback in a losing effort. The Cowboys scored 40 points in both of those previous contests — and Prescott has completed a combined 49 passes from 61 attempts for an 80.3% completion percentage for 623 passing yards, five touchdown passes, and only one interception. He has added 57 rushing yards in those two games as well. Furthermore, Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Prescott leads an offense that leads the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate — they have reached the end zone in 40 of their 54 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Cowboys have played 7 of their 8 games this season Over the Total when the Total was set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over their Total against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening week game between these two teams in which Tampa Bay won by a 19-3 score in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s teams have played 10 of their 12 games on the road Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Head coach Todd Bowles' teams have played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog getting up to three points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in six straight games after their 11-point loss in Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 36-13-2 in their last 51 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. The Ravens have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Cincinnati has seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. They only managed 55 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow. On the other side of the ball, the Cincinnati defense remains underrated. They hold their guests to just 309.4 total YPG when playing at home which translates into 18.0 PPG. The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Under is also 21-7-2 in their last 29 games in January — and they have played 4 straight Unders. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 straight Unders in the playoffs. The Under is also 12-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 16 games against AFC opponents — and the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). THE SITUATION: New York (9-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-16 loss at Philadelphia as a 17-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 29-13 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings had played six straight games with at least 49 combined points scored before their victory against the Bears in the final week of the regular season. That streak started after Minnesota only scored a field goal in their flat 40-3 loss at home to Dallas. That game came after their 33-30 barn-burning victory at Buffalo the previous week. The Vikings cannot stop anyone — but the brilliance of wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the veteran competency of quarterback Kirk Cousins usually results in higher-scoring games for this team. Minnesota has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win. Cousins completed 17 of 20 passes for 225 yards before making way for Nick Mullens who added another 116 passing yards. The Vikings gained 482 total yards against Chicago last week — and they have played 6 of their alert 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings’ defense has surrendered 29.6 Points-Per-Game in their last five games even after the Bears only put up 13 points against them. Their defense ranks 28th in the league in weighted DVOA Defense using the metrics at Football Outsiders that privilege the most recent performances. Minnesota returns home where they are scoring 27.0 PPG — but they are allowing their guests to generate 393.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.2 PPG. The Vikings have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total including seven of their last eight home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 24 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, the Vikings have played 17 of these games Over the Total. New York had scored 20 points in six straight games before only scoring 16 points last week against the Eagles in a game where head coach Brian Daboll rested many of his key starters including quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants' defense has allowed six of their last eight opponents to score at least 20 points with the two exceptions being the anemic offenses of Indianapolis and Washington. The Over is 4-1-1 in New York’s last 6 games after a point spread win — and the Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. New York is generating 374.3 YPG in their last three games while ranking 7th in weighted Offensive DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Giants also lead the NFL in Red Zone DVOA Offense — and they will be going against a Vikings’ defense that ranks 23rd in the league in Red Zone DVOA Defense so their drives should result in more touchdowns than field goals if those trends hold up. Minnesota allows their opponents to complete 66.1% of their passes — and New York has played 4 straight Overs in the second half of the season against teams who allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes. And while the Vikings score 24.9 PPG, the Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has led Minnesota to eight game-winning touchdowns this season — but Daniel Jones is responsible for five game-winning drives himself in his breakout season under Daboll’s direction. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak to make the playoffs with their 19-16 win in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 38-13 victory against Arizona as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 255 yards in their victory last week. The Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. San Francisco has the best defensive unit in the NFL when using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — they rank 2nd in the league Run Defense and 5th against the Pass according to those DVOA analytics. They allow only 16.3 Points-Per-Game — and they limit their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 303.8 Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. In their two games against the Seahawks this season, they held Seattle to only 20 combined points with the lone touchdown they surrendered taking place in garbage time in the second game between these teams in Seattle. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy completed 15 of his 20 passes for 178 yards last week against the Cardinals — but the 49ers offense only gained just 311 yards against them. The Niners only generated 142 net passing yards after accounting for lost yards in sacks — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. San Francisco stays at home at Levi’s Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a home favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders in the playoffs. Seattle held the Rams to only 123 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Seahawks have only given up 22 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Seattle ran for 197 yards against the Rams en route to 322 total yards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Seahawks will clearly try to slow this game down by running Kenneth Walker early and burning time off the clock. Seattle has played four straight Unders — and not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders, but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 21-13 win in Seattle on December 15th. Purdy completed 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards in that game — but head coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks now have first-hand experience playing against the former Iowa State quarterback in addition to now three more games of tape against him. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Lastly, the weather forecast calls for wind and rain — and 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan may reel in his play-calling with the rookie under center to not take unnecessary chances given those conditions. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs scored 51 points against Michigan — but two of their touchdowns came from defensive interceptions returned for scores. TCU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Even when the Wolverines began their furious comeback in the second half, they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The Horned Frogs need to tighten things up on defense after allowing 528 yards to the Wolverines. TCU has played 5 straight Unders after allowing 40 or more points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 450 or more yards in their last contest. Georgia generated 533 yards against the Buckeyes last week — but they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. The Bulldogs have scored at least 37 points in three straight games — and they have played all three of those games Over the Total. But Georgia has played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Bulldogs may be without one of their key weapons on offense with 6’7 tight end Darnell Washington questionable with an ankle injury he suffered last week. Washington joins tight end  Brock Bowers to form the foundation of Georgia’s smash-mouth spread offensive scheme that leans on these tight ends and their running backs as opposed to wide receivers — so his absence will throw a monkey wrench in the Bulldogs' offensive identity.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has allowed their last two opponents to score 71 combined points after their first 12 opponents only score 136 combined points against them. I expect head coach Kirby Smart to slow this game down with the expectation that his defense remains the best unit in this game and the Bulldogs’ experience will lead them to a victory (and Smart’s priority is winning the game, not covering the point spread). Georgia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. 25* CFB Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-9) has won two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-8) has won three in a row after their 16-13 upset win at Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns upset the Commanders despite only gaining 301 total yards of offense last week. Deshaun Watson has been underwhelming in his return from suspension — he only completed 9 of 18 passes against Washington for 169 yards (although he did throw three touchdown passes). Despite Watson’s fully guaranteed contract that he signed as a free agent from Houston, head coach Kevin Stefanski has his team running the football with his high-priced sex offender. The Browns had not scored more than 13 points in three straight games before reaching 24 points last week. But the Cleveland defense has been outstanding as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games. This should be a motivated group to play the role of spoiler to prevent Pittsburgh from making the playoffs — and sending Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin out with his first losing season in his career would be the icing on the cake. Furthermore, Jadeveon Clowney left the team this week after claiming he wanted to play for a team that “wanted” him — and that prompted Myles Garrett to paraphrase Tomlin in claiming that his team does not want “hostage” playing for them. Expect the defensive to play inspired football with the malcontent Clowney now out of the picture. As it is, Cleveland has played  4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They held the Commanders to just 124 passing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. And while they have played six straight Unders, Cleveland has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. In their last three games, they are generating just 277.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 15.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their last three opponents to 276.0 YPG and a mere 10.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Steelers have gained 351 yards against the Ravens with 198 of those yards coming on the ground. The Under is a decisive 47-22-2 in their last 71 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They held Baltimore to only 240 total yards — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Steelers have not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games. They have held their last three opponents to 216.7 YPG and 13.0 PPG. But Pittsburgh has scored less than 20 points in four of their last five contests. Back at home, the Steelers are gaining only 317.0 YPG and 18.7 PPG. They have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by three points or less. The Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh makes the playoffs with a win this afternoon combined with a New England loss and Miami loss — so the stakes are high for them. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 games against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Titans head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. They did give up 361 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more yards in their last game. The Titans go back on the road where they are scoring only 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 269.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The formula for success in this contest will be to keep running Henry who looks primed for at least 30 carries in this contest. But the Titans will have to rely on Joshua Dobbs at quarterback who had thrown only 17 career passes in the NFL before making his first career start last week against the Cowboys. Dobbs accounted for himself pretty well against the Dallas team — he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards. But the Jaguars will benefit from the game tape they now have on Dobbs for this contest. Jacksonville has only allowed six combined points in their last two games albeit against similarly less-than-ideal quarterbacking situations with Houston and the New York Jets. They held the Texans to just 277 total yards after limiting the Jets to only 227 yards the previous week. The Jags have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Houston only ran for 84 yards against them last week — and the Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Jacksonville ran for 169 yards against the Texans — making it the third straight game where they gained at least 147 yards on the ground. But the Jaguars have then played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. Jacksonville returns home where they are holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents including four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. 25* NFL ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, whe will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). THE SITUATION: Bradley (10-5) has won three of their last four games with their 79-45 victory against Illinois-Chicago as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 78-61 win at Evansville as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves made 52.6% of their shots against the Flames which was the best shooting mark in their last seven games. Bradley has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Braves have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. This group is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their stout defensive play starts from their interior defense which holds their opponents to 41.9% shooting inside the arc, ranking 7th in the nation. This spells trouble for the Tigers who get 53.7% of their points from 2-pointers, ranking 100th in the nation. In their four true road games, Bradley ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In their seven games away from home (including three games played on a neutral court), the Braves hold their opponents to 43.9% shooting which results in 65.3 Points-Per-Game. But Bradley only makes 39.4% of their shots away from home which is generating a mere 57.3 PPG. The Braves have played 5 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Murray State has played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they holding their opponents to 61.6 PPG. The Racers have played 5 straight Unders on their home court — and they have 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. Murray State scores 70.2 PPG on their home court — and they rank 255th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency Rate on offense in their five games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Racers rank 33rd in the nation in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 29.1% shooting from behind the arc — and Bradley ranks 59th in the nation by getting 36.2% of their points from 3-point shooting. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (8-7) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 88-66 win against St. John’s as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Creighton (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 80-65 win against DePaul as a 15.5-point favorite on Christmas Day.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates nailed 54.1% of their shots against the Red Storm — that field goal percentage along with their 88 points represented their best offensive numbers of the season. But Seton Hall has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points. And while the Pirates have played two straight Overs, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where they are only making 42.6% of their shots which is resulting in them scoring 65.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests — -4.9 PPG before their season average. Seton Hall has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Pirates are an outstanding defensive team in the first season under head coach Shaheen Holloway. Seton Hall ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 17th in the country by holding their opponents to 27.7% shooting from behind the arc. The Pirates like to get to the free throw line — they rank 6th in the nation in free throw rate. But now they play a Bluejays team that leads the nation in opponent free throw rate allowed. Creighton ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also limit their opponents to pulling down only 21.8% of their missed shots, ranking 7th best in the nation. The Bluejays were on a six-game losing streak before winning their last two games by double-digit wins at home against Big East Rivals. Both of those games coincided with the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner who missed three games to an injury last month. Creighton has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their previous two games against conference opponents by 10 or more points. They have made at least 54.0% of their shots in their last two games after not shooting better than 46.3% in their previous six contests. The Bluejays have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after shooting 50% or better from the field in two straight games. They have scored 158 combined points in their last two contests — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. And in their last 5 games when playing with at least seven games between contests, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with seven or more days between games. They stay at home where they rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court. They hold their opponents to 40.7% shooting which is translating into their opponents scoring just 60.1 PPG. The Under is 21-10-1 in Creighton’s last 32 games at home — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Additionally, the Bluejays have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Creighton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Seton Hall has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 27-24 win against the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite on December 24th. Green Bay (7-8) has won three straight games after their 26-20 upset win at Miami as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins had another good game against the Giants — he completed 34 of 48 passes for 299 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In his last four games, Cousins has thrown for 1357 yards for a 339 passing Yards-Per-Game average — and he has tossed ten touchdowns during that span. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Vikings generated 353 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But Minnesota also gave up 435 yards to the Giants in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teas with a losing record at home. Green Bay has found their offensive identity (finally) — they are scoring 26.5 PPG in their last six games. The key to the Packers' offensive success has been to lean into their dynamic running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In Green Bay’s last four games, those two running backs have 117 combined touches for 635 yards with six touchdowns. The Packers have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They go back home where they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. Green Bay is looking to avenge a 23-7 loss in Minnesota on September 11th — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings at Lambeau Field Over the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. As it is, the Buckeyes have played 8 straight Unders after getting blown out by 21 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a Big Ten opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss when favored by six or more points. I am a bit worried about quarterback C.J. Stroud facing this stout Bulldogs’ defense. While Stroud leads the Ohio State attack when playing the role of a flat track bully, the Buckeyes’ offense stalled too often against their most challenging three opponents. Against Michigan, Ohio State only scored a field goal in the final 33 minutes. The Buckeyes had scored only 16 points with under ten minutes to go against Penn State before the floodgates opened in that game. Ohio State scored just 21 points and gained less than 400 total yards in their opening game against Notre Dame. Stroud seems reluctant to use his legs to gain yards — negating a skill that has become so valuable in these pass-heavy attacks. Stroud also keys-in too much on his first read while lacking advanced skills to move to a second (or third) option — and that is how the Wolverines burned him after sandbagging that defensive tactic. Now Stroud and a Buckeyes offense that will play without injured running back TreVeyon Henderson faces a stiffer test against Georgia — who has a healthy Jalen Carter at defensive tackle after he has missed time with injuries. While the Bulldogs’ defense was not as historic as last year’s group, they still held their opponents to just 12.8 PPG and 292.2 Yards-Per-Game. Georgia has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs generated 529 yards against LSU while averaging 7.56 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last contest. And while Georgia has scored 87 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders in bowl games — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 10-4-2 in Georgia’s last 16 games played on a neutral field — and the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Ohio State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (7-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset loss at Duke as a 3-point favorite on November 26th. Missouri (6-6) has won two in a row and four of their last six after a 29-27 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers are a lower-scoring team that averages only 25.5 Points-Per-Game. They did not score more than 24 points eight times — and in their five games away from home, they scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 336.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Quarterback Brady Cook was up-and-down in his sophomore season — and he will be without his top wide receiver target Dominic Lovett who had 56 catches for 846 receiving yards as he is in the transfer portal. Missouri ran for 226 yards in their upset win against the Razorbacks en route to 468 total yards. The Tigers have played 5 straight Unders after rushing for 200 or more yards — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Under is also 35-16-2 in their last 53 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Missouri has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. The Tigers are dealing with some opt-outs on their defense — while they were 3rd in the SEC with 33 sacks, they are losing 17 of those sacks from three players making themselves available for the NFL draft. This remains a team that held their opponents to 337.9 total YPG this year. The offense perked up in their final three games when head coach Eli Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan — but Hamdan has left to take over the offensive coordinator gig at Boise State which means Drinkwitz will be back to calling plays again. A problem for this Tigers' offense was the play of their offensive line as they allowed 91 tackles for loss, ranking 114th in the nation. Missouri was 112th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed — and the Demon Deacons ranked 31st in the nation in Havoc Rate on defense. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Wake Forest has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread once in their last three games. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons gained 453 yards against the Blue Devils in their last game — but they surrendered 507 total yards. Wake Forest has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards. This will be the last game in a Deacons uniform for 5th-year quarterback Sam Hartman who will either enter the NFL draft or transfer to another program. He has led Wake Forest to score at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three straight games. All three of those games saw 65 or more combined points scored — but they have then played 4 straight Unders after playing three or more in a row with 60 or more combined points scored. The defense struggled in those three games without injured safety Malik Mustapha — but he is expected back for this game. The Demon Deacons' offense was more dynamic at home where they averaged 41.9 PPG while scoring at least 34 in each game. But Wake Forest’s four-lowest scoring efforts this year were on the road — including two games where they only scored 21 points. They averaged 29.8 PPG in their five road games — and their opponents' 388.0 YPG mark was -23.9 YPG lower than their season average, so their defense was a bit more effective. The Demon Deacons have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and Missouri has played 4 straight Unders on a neutral field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (11-1) has won nine straight games after their 91-67 victory against San Diego as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-63 upset loss at UT-Arlington as a 15-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils nailed 47.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. Arizona State has played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 7 straight Unders after a win by double-digits at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. The Sun Devils have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. They also allowed the Toreros to shoot 40.0% despite their opponent’s field goal percentage of 35.1%. Arizona State ranks 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to 61.3 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils play outstanding half-court defense — they are 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.4% while ranking 2nd in the country by limiting their opponents to making only 39.1% of their shots inside the arc. Now Arizona State goes back on the road where they make only 42.2% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They only shot 38.2% from the field against the Mavericks in their last game — but they did nail 13 of their 31 (42%) shots from 3-point range. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 13 more snots from behind the arc in their last contest. San Francisco is not likely to come close to replicating that effort tonight considering they only make 32.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 206th in the nation. The Dons are going to struggle to score against the Sun Devils. Most of their scoring comes from inside the arc where they make 53.1% of their shots, ranking 80th in the nation — but that plays right into the heart of the Arizona State defense. San Francisco ranks just 173rd in the nation in offensive rebounding — and they do not get to the free throw line as they rank 180th in the free throw rate. The Dons do not draw a ton of fouls — their last two opponents to committed just 14 and 11 personal fouls. San Francisco has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not drawing 15 or more fouls in two straight games. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They hold their guests to 41.2% shooting which results in 63.3 PPG. They also rank 38th in the nation in 3-point defense by limiting their opponents to a 29.0% shooting percentage from 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State will be looking to avenge a 66-65 loss at home to the Dons as a 2.5-point underdog last season. The Sun Devils have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers has finally embraced the potential of the Green Bay offense if they commit to running the ball more behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. After bottoming out with just 12 rushing attempts in a 23-21 loss at Washington, the Packers have since run the ball at least 19 times in their last six games including 31 or more rushes in three of those games. They have gained at least 106 yards on the ground in five of those six games — and they gained 175 or more on the ground three times. Sticking with the running game helps Rodgers be more effective in the passing attack since defenders get burned for simply stepping back to defend the pass. It is not a coincidence that Christian Watson has stepped up as a deep threat in the second half of the season coinciding with these increased rushing efforts. Watson has now caught 11 of his 23 targets of more than 10 air yards — resulting in 294 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay has scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The Packers ran for 175 yards on 32 carries against the Bears — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Toal after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. But the play of the Packers' defense remains an issue — especially since the season-ending injury to linebacker Rashan Gary. The Packers have allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bears gained 409 yards against them two weeks ago — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. Green Bay returns home where Rodgers has been much more effective with a Passer Rating of 104 with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home at Lambeau Field. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the benefit of the mini-bye after playing on a Thursday. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns. But the Rams’ defense misses Aaron Donald who will be out once again for this game. They have given up 392.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they have surrendered 26 or more points in four of their last five games. They did hold the Raiders to 137 passing yards — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December. With both of these teams essentially out of the playoffs, look for a wild one tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants only gained 304 total yards last week in their loss to the Eagles. After thriving under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, defenses have adjusted to running back Saquon Barkley who perhaps is beginning to tire in the back half of the season. Barkley ran the ball only nine times last week for 28 yards — and he has only 38 carries in his last three games for 130 rushing yards. The Under is 15-5-2 in New York’s last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point-spread loss. And while the Giants got outgained by -133 net yards, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last contest. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but the Under is then 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. But in their last three games, they are scoring just 20.7 PPG and generating just 306.7 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commanders ran for 165 yards against the Giants two weeks ago — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. They get the rematch at home where they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. But the Washington defense is playing as well as any defensive unit in the league lately. They have held their last three opponents to 14.3 PPG and 279.3 YPG — and this group will be even better if and when Chase Young returns to action from his injury (which could be tonight). The Commanders have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home in the second half of the season. They have also played 4 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-1 in Washington’s last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in December. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (5-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five contests — after their 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 4th. New Orleans (4-9) has lost two in a row — and four of their last five as well — after a 17-16 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only gained 306 total yards against the Steelers in their last game. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game and generating a mere 306.0 total YPG in their last three contests. It is this ineptitude on offense that played a role in head coach Arthur Smith benching Marcus Mariota and turning to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has yet to appear in an NFL game this season — this will be a tough test in a very hostile environment against a stout defense. With tight end Kyle Pitts out the season with a torn MCL, this remains a limited Falcons’ offense that lacks weapons in the passing attack. Ridder may offer a more credible vertical threat in the passing game, but Smith is not going to ask Ridder to do too much — and this will remain a run-first team. Atlanta is scoring only 19.0 PPG and generating 290.8 total YPG in their six games on the road. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Falcons have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Atlanta surrendered 154 rushing yards to the Steelers in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams that lack a winning record at home. New Orleans only gained 298 yards in their loss to the Buccaneers just under two weeks ago. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. And while they only rushed for 66 yards against Tampa Bay, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 90 rushing yards in their last contest. New Orleans is scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 293.7 total YPG in those games. But the Saints are staying competitive by holding those last three opponents to 16.7 PPG — and they only allow 307.0 total YPG in their six games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December — and the Saints have played 5 straight Unders in December. This is a rematch of New Orleans’ 27-26 win in Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on September 11th — but these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Under the Total. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062) in the Finals of the Men’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: France (W5-D0-L1) advances to the Finals of the World Cup with their 2-0 victory against Morocco on Wednesday. Argentina (W5-D0-L1) reached the Finals the day before with their 3-0 victory against Croatia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: France has been the highest-scoring side in this competition with 13 goals scored. The deeper metrics confirm the scoring prowess of Les Bleus with 13.1 expected goals. In their victory against Morocco, they posted 2.25 xG even against a defensive side. Led by Kylian Mbappe who has scored five goals in this event, this team has probably the best player in the world right now. But the continuing concern for manager Didier Deschamps has been the shaky play of his back line. France has conceded at least one goal in five of their six matches. Overall, Les Bleus have allowed five goals — and the expected goals they have allowed in this tournament suggest it should be even worse with their 7.37 xGA mark. In their last three matches in the Knockout Stage, France has allowed 6.03 xGA with all three of these opponents reaching 1.43 xGA or higher. To compound matters, the “air conditioning” bug that has been spreading in Qatar — blamed on the constant air conditioning blasting throughout the city for this world event — has impacted the Les Bleus locker room with defenders Raphael Varane and Ibrahima Konate under the weather. Varane, at least, should still play — but it is a worry if he is not at 100% overcoming a flu bug. Argentina has been dynamic in their scoring attack with 12 goals scored in this tournament — and their xG is 13.72. They generated 3.19 xG in their victory against the stout defense of Croatia. La Albiceleste has scored two or more goals in five straight games. This has been a breakout tournament for Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez. But the straw that stirs the drink remains Lionel Messi who has been outstanding in the pursuit of his first World Cup title to put the bow on his illustrious career. Messi has scored five goals himself in this event — and he is playing to cement his status as the Greatest Of All Time in this match. But Le Albiceleste is not strong with their fullbacks — and they have surrendered leads too often in this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey affairs that usually are lower-scoring matches — and that is how this match should initially play out. But if and when a team scores the first goal, this contest should open up. France is a counter-attacking side — so expect Argentina to control possession. With the Mbappe versus Messi narrative involved in this match along with two shaky defenses, expect a higher-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense stymied Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense by holding them to 322 total yards. This San Francisco defense has not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games — and their last three opponents have combined for just 24 total points. With this Niners' defense closer to full strength after dealing with injuries, they are making a strong case that they are the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game and 286.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 2nd and 5th in Run Defense and Pass Defense according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. San Francisco ranks 2nd in Defensive DVOA  overall and 1st in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent performances. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by three or more touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. San Francisco will make it very difficult for the Seahawks to run the football — the 69 rushing yards Tampa Bay generated against them was actually the most yards they have allowed on the ground in their last six games. The 49ers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. They have also played 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. And while they have played two straight Overs with Purdy under center, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. The Seahawks have been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. And they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 148 passing yards in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and San Francisco has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and the Seahawks have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in four straight games before getting stymied by the 49ers’ stout defense. Now playing this weak Chargers defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who struggled under the pressure of the San Francisco pass rush last week. Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in Passer Rating — and now he faces a defense that ranks 26th in the NFL using the weighted DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders that privileges the most recent results. Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns but two interceptions against the Niners. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Dolphins stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and their offense generates 397.2 Yards-Per-Game away from home. But Miami also allows their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chargers average 353.7 total YPG, Miami has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average at least 350 YPG. Injuries have not helped the Los Angeles cause with linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson among their best players that have been out for an extended basis — and star safety Derwin James is doubtful to play tonight after missing practice all week with a quad injury. But the defensive problems go deeper than that. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has been ineffective in taking care of his side of the football after being hired after one season as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. In hindsight, the Rams’ defensive success that year probably has much more to do with Aaron Donald than it did with Staley’s schemes which effectively deployed nickel and dime schemes with Donald still clogging the run lanes. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to generate 420.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game from these foes. Los Angeles returns home to SoFi Stadium where they are giving up 28.0 PPG. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Justin Herbert usually manages to keep his team competitive with four of the Chargers’ six losses being decided by one scoring possession. He completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. Los Angeles gained 386 yards in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angles has played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-8) has lost seven of their last nine games after their 40-14 loss at Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Tennessee (7-5) has lost two games in a row after a 35-10 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars managed only 266 total yards of offense in their loss to the Lions last week. They have not scored more than 17 points in four of their last six contests — and they are averaging just 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Jaguars stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Ryan Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for just 141 yards  — and he was relieved by rookie Malik Willis who completed 2 of his 4 passes for another 16 yards. The Titans managed to generate only 209 total yards of offense against the Eagles. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last games. That result appeared to be the final straw for ownership who fired general manager Jon Robinson earlier this week for, in large part, trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on draft day. The issue was never the importance of Brown — it was whether or not the organization was going to meet his eventual sky-high contract demands. In hindsight, trading him to Philly and then drafting Treylon Burks in the first round later that night. But Burks has been injured for much of the season — and he is questionable to play today after not practicing this week. Without Burks yet stepping up, the Titans' offense lacks a number-one target in the passing game. Injuries on the offensive line have compounded matters — most notably, left tackle Taylor Lewan is out the season. But perhaps the biggest concern for this offense relates to running back Derrick Henry who seems to have hit a wall. In his last four games, he has run the ball 75 times for just 208 rushing yards with only one touchdown. Not only is he averaging just 2.78 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not generated more than 3.1 YPC in any of those four games. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games. And while the Jaguars' defense has been a disappointment, they are solid against the run railing 13th in the league using the DVOA analytics by Football Outsides. But the Titans' defense remains solid as their loss to Philadelphia was the first time they allowed more than 20 points since Week Three. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 17 or fewer points. They allowed 453 yards last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after alloying 350 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they are allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will bhe playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Washington Wizards (526). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-13) has lost two straight -- and four of their last five contests — after their 115-110 loss at Miami as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Washington (11-15) has lost five in a row — and eight of their last nine contests — after a 121-111 loss at Indiana as a 4-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is their fourth game since Monday, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing for the fourth time in seven days. The Clippers have Kawhi Leonard back on the court and reunited with Paul George — yet the team is not playing hard on the defensive end of the court. In their last five games (with Leonard back for the last three), they are allowing their opponents to nail 49.3% of their shots which is translating into 119.2 Points-Per-Game. They complete their four-game road trip having played 6 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record a home. Los Angeles has also played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Washington has allowed three straight opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Pacers made 50.6% of their shots last night. The Wizards have allowed their last three opponents to hit 48.7% of their shots which has resulted in them giving up 119.2 PPG during that span. The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Washington has also played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. They are undermanned right now with several injuries including Bradley Beal and Will Barton being out tonight. They return home where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Wizards have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 25 of their last 34 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Washington. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Washington Wizards (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After only gaining 400 or more yards once in their first nine games, the Raiders have topped the 400-yard threshold in three straight games after they gained 404 yards against the Chargers. But Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 350 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders held the Chargers to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Las Vegas stays on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down. They gained 171 rushing yards last week against the Seahawks — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. The Rams have been a gigantic disappointment, especially on offense where they are scoring 16.8 PPG and averaging 281.3 YPG this season — and they are managing just 17.7 PPG and 284.3 YPG in their last three games. Los Angeles misses left tackle Andrew Whitworth who retired in the offseason — and subsequent injuries on the offensive line have made this unit a shell of the one that helped them win the Super Bowl last season. The Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week as well — but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (8-1) has won six games in a row after their 68-64 win against Stanford as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. SMU (3-5) has lost two games in a row after a 69-68 upset loss to Jackson State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win including four straight Unders going into this game. They have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. Arizona State has not allowed more than 65 points in seven straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight contests. Head coach Bobby Hurley has his team playing outstanding defense. They rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and only one of their opponents has made more than 39.7% of their shots against them. They rank 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 38.9% — and the 24.4% shooting from behind the arc and the 40.2% shooting inside the arc by their opponents are both the 6th best cards in the nation. Their 5.8 blocks per game are 14th in the nation. On the road, they are holding their opponents to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in just 61.7 Points-Per-Game But Arizona State is making only 41.8% of their shots on the road which is translating into 69.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. The Sun Devils are not a good outside shooting team as they make only 29.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 312th in the nation. They rely on getting to the charity stripe given their free-throw rate which is 28th in the nation — but the whistles from the referees are not always as accommodating when playing in a hostile environment for just the third time this season. Arizona State has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. SMU has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mustangs can struggle to score points with only Zhuric Phelps and Zach Nutall averaging more than 9 PPG. SMU ranks 320th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. They struggle with their shooting everywhere on the court — they rank 299th in the nation with a 29.5% shooting percentage behind the arc and 291st in the country with a 45.7% mark inside the arc. SMU is making only 40.0% of their shots which results in just 67.0 PPG. But the Mustangs are a solid defensive team that ranks 108th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their guests to 39.4% shooting and 64.3 PPG when playing at home. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 27-8-1 in Arizona State’s last 36 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.