There's no guarantee that a team who needs to win in week 17 will actually do it. Philly just needs to win and they are in, but they are coming off a highly emotional game at home against Dallas and will not have Zach Ertz either. These two played earlier in the month with Eli Manning under center and they nearly won in Philly 23-17. The Eagles have so many injuries although Jordan Howard will be returning and Lane Johnson is questionable. Still, there's not a ton of weapons and Philly's defense has had it's issues on the road. The Eagles D gave up 27 in Washington, 37 in Miami and 37 in Dallas. The Giants have won their last two and the offense has looked really good. They put up 36 on Miami at home and 41 in Washington last time out. Daniel Jones has improved and is doing well when he's not turning it over. I think New York would thoroughly enjoy ruining the Eagles season. Give me the home underdog here that's not trying to tank away their season. 

The Steelers need to win and get help in order to get in the playoffs. They've been playing some terrible football on offense scoring just 10 points the last two weeks in games against the Bills and Jets. This is their third road game over the last four weeks and their fifth in their last seven. Devlin Hodges is under center and he's struggled terribly. The backup is Paxton Lynch who won't help much either. They can't run it with James Conner and Maurkice Pouncey out and the passing game is weak too. Yes, the defense has been awesome holding five straight opponents to 20 points or less. Baltimore is sitting a lot of their starters meaning RG3 is getting the call at QB and this is an audition for him to show other teams he's still got it. Now, they can't sit all of their starters, but Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Mark Ingram are all out. There's some good backups behind them and I just don't have faith in Pittsburgh. Plus, the Titans game will be on at the same time so who knows how that will effect the team. I like the home dogs in this one. 

I think this line is a little high on Sunday night as the Bears host the Chiefs. Chicago has won three of their last four, but are coming of a 21-13 loss to Green Bay in which the offense did it's part, but things just didn't go their way. Still, this team has played well at home as of late winning each of their last three there. The defense is back in it's groove having held five of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less. KC has won four straight, but their last loss came against Tennessee on the road just over a month ago in a game like this against a tough nosed team that will grind it out a little bit and make KC have to work for it's points. I'm not a huge believer that this defense has turned it around all of a sudden. They've faced four straight weaker offenses in LA, Oakland, New England and Denver. The Bears have covered seven of their last nine as a home underdog with one other game being a push. They are 15-8-1 against the spread the last three seasons at home. I think they can make things interesting here. 

It's a huge game for the Seahawks in terms of the one seed in the NFC as they host the Cardinals. Seattle's been living on the edge this season with just one double digit victory which happened to come against Arizona. Back on September 29th, the Seahawks won 27-10 in a game that saw them up 20-3 at halftime. Arizona has played better as of late and is coming off a 38-24 win over Cleveland in which its offense sizzled and its defense even made a few plays too. This team has won in New York against the Giants and had close losses at Tampa Bay and San Francisco. The Seahawks just wrapped up a stretch of four of five games on the road that featured a ton of travel. They also host the 49ers next week in a much larger game. Seattle's defense is ridiculously banged up with Jadeveon Clowney and Quandre Diggs out as well as Duane Brown on the offense. Seattle is 9-12-1 against the spread over their last three seasons at home including 2-4 this year. Give me the road team to make things interesting. 

This is a spot play here on the home team as they bounce back from a tough loss to the Texans. It snapped their four game win streak which saw the offense go nuts. Tennessee is one of those teams that are really hard to figure out, but here outside, I like their chances. This is the same team that beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home back on November 10th. With Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill now, you could see them play some ball control and keep it away from a banged up Saints team. New Orleans is coming off an emotional stretch where they had the duel with the 49ers at home and then they got Drew Brees the record on Monday Night. Tennessee has covered eight of their last 11 non-conference games including two of three this year. The home team is a lot healthier and is in a buy low situation after coming up small against Houston at home last week. 

Recency bias comes into play here. The betting public saw the Jets get thrashed in Baltimore last Thursday night and are running to the window on the Steelers. This is a New York team that has played better at home with wins over the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders and Dolphins there. Yes, the Jets aren't great, but their secondary has actually played better and they've been very good against the run. Sam Darnold hopefully won't be seeing ghosts in this game, but you know Le'Veon Bell will be motivated to see his former team. It does scare me that Adam Gase is an idiot. On the other side, Pittsburgh has won three of their last four and are coming off a 17-10 home loss to Buffalo. Their quarterback situation is brutal with Duck Hodges being the "best" option right now. The run game has struggled a bit as James Conner has been banged up. This team struggled to win in Cincinnati and Arizona in their last two road games. I'm playing the spot here as the Steelers have the Ravens next week and if Baltimore wins this week, then they'll play backups in week 17. Last home game for the Jets and I'll take them here on Sunday. Pittsburgh is 13-19-1 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite and 4-7-1 ATS as a road favorite over that span. 

This is a play on a competent home team that's getting points against a potential look-ahead situation. Minnesota has lost two of their last three road games and have played four of their last six away from home. The Vikings are in the mix for both the division and the wild card in the NFC, but have home games against division rival Green Bay and Chicago coming up next. They will get a boost most likely from the return of Adam Thielen, but LA's defense is getting healthier too. Derwin James is back at safety and he's a huge piece to the puzzle. The Chargers saw their three game losing streak snapped last week in a 45-10 win over Jacksonville. LA's been able to run the ball and seemingly has had Philip Rivers play a little bit better. Their defense is pretty much back intact and the unit is tough to run and throw on. Combine that with a 10-12 ATS record the last three years with Minnesota away from home and I think LA could potentially win the game outright.

The Jaguars have quit on the season and it shows on the field. They've lost five in a row and have been outscored by 117 points over that span which included road games at Indy and Tennessee. The offense isn't doing enough no matter who is under center and the defense is getting crushed by their opponent's ground game. Oakland has lost three straight and is in a bad spot themselves, but it looks like Josh Jacobs could be back to revive the run game and the passing attack should get going too. Also, this is the team's last home game in Oakland so you know it'll be loud and emotional. I just think Jacksonville has quit and Doug Marrone has lost the room. Because of that I think they get crushed one more time as the Raiders send their fans out with smiles and happiness. 

I agree with the line move here and will be taking the home team. St. Louis is coming off a 34-7 win in Arizona where everything went right. Jared Goff was great and the defense was like a brick wall. I don't know if this means Goff has turned the corner, but at least he has a little confidence. These two played a very tight game in Seattle back on October 3rd with the Rams losing 30-29. Seattle has won five straight, but I really don't like their defense. I think their secondary is very mediocre and their front seven is exploitable as well. Of course people will back them for Russell Wilson, but he's had three straight human performances and probably should have lost two of those games. I think Seattle has been lucky as of late and I'm hoping that runs out on Sunday. Give me LA in this situation to win the game. 

Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints. I just wonder if the Panthers play distracted and lay a massive egg. 

I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team.

The Browns and Steelers play just a few weeks after their Thursday night meeting in Cleveland in which Myles Garrett hit Mason Rudolph in the helmet. Well, Garrett's gone and Rudolph is as well with Duck Hodges back under center. Cleveland beat Miami 41-24 at home last week completing the three game home sweep. Cleveland's defense has been playing pretty good here, but the pass rush needs Garrett. The Steelers won 16-10 last week in Cincinnati in the most extreme sandwich spot you could probably ever have. Consistently this season Pittsburgh has been a home underdog and they've covered several times. The Steelers defense is forcing a ton of turnovers and will be highly motivated for this one. Cleveland has been a road favorite three times the last three seasons and they've only won that game outright once. I just think this line is getting a little extreme, but I'll take the home dog once again.  

The Titans are the better team in this matchup although it's a bit of a worry that they are coming off a bye week. Tennessee has won three of their last four and are playing a whole lot better with Ryan Tannehill under center. The loss in that stretch came in Carolina, but this team has also feasted at home as of late. They want to grind it out with Derrick Henry who should be able to run wild on the Jags defense. Tannehill's weapons aren't great, but he's made due with it. The Titans defense has been fantastic for the most part. Yes, Kansas City sliced them up, but they do that to everyone. Before that, Tennessee's D was fantastic. Jacksonville has lost two straight and four of their last six. Last week they threw it too much with a rusty Nick Foles and they figure to run it more with Fournette. As I mentioned above though, you can run on these guys. Indy put up 264 while Houston ran for 216. These two met in Jacksonville on a Thursday night in September with the Jags winning 20-7 at home. That was the Gardner Minshew show, but the offense didn't work that well. Tennessee is 15-6 straight up at home the last three years covering 11 of those contests. In a low scoring affair, I'll go with the better running team. 

The Raiders are 6-4 and one of the best stories in the NFL right now. They head to New York to face the Jets on Sunday and it seems like a poor spot for the team. Oakland has a road game against the Chiefs up next week in a game that's a whole lot more important then this one. They've run off three straight wins over the Lions, Chargers and Bengals at home and are playing good football right now. Still, I'm not a huge believer in the Raiders defense. You can run on them and the last two opponents have. The secondary has put up some good stats, but the Chargers and Bengals passing attack are rather anemic.

On the other side you have the Jets who have won two straight and are finally playing like the team we thought they'd be. The offense put up 34 on the Giants and the Redskins the last two weeks. Sam Darnold is throwing it well with Le'Veon Bell who has been a key piece. The defense has been very good against the run all year and the secondary has actually been alright as of late. I know that teams are getting better with travel when heading east but I think that's a factor as well. Give me the home dog in this one.

I think this line is giving too much respect to a still bad Atlanta team. The Falcons had lost six straight before this odd victory in New Orleans. The ATL offense lacks weapons outside of Julio Jones and the defense still isn't very good. During the six game losing skid, Atlanta lost four games by 7 points or more. Carolina has won five of their last seven and is coming off a frustrating loss to Green Bay in which they were one yard short of potentially tying it. This team has played just four games at home this season going 2-2 there. Kyle Allen has been very good and Christian McCaffrey has been the secret MVP candidate. The Panthers defense has been good against mediocre run teams and has held six opponents to 225 yards passing or less. Atlanta has won three straight in this series, but I think the Panthers get the win here.

The Broncos have made a change at quarterback due to injury and it's Brandon Allen who was awful this preseason. The signal caller takes over an offense that is averaging just over 300 yards per game. It's the defense that I'm really backing here on Sunday. By not trading Chris Harris and Von Miller, you've shown a little confidence in what this team can do. This side of the ball has shut out Tennessee and held potent Indianapolis to 15 points on the road. It's hard to run on them and even harder to throw.

Cleveland has lost three straight and is playing their fourth road game over their last six weeks. Everyone is questioning Freddie Kitchens and rightfully so. He seems way over his head. They made a ton of mistakes in New England and lost 27-13. This team got all the hype this offseason and Baker Mayfield has been a turnover machine. Yes, they have the better talent in this one, but I think this is a drastic overreaction to a mediocre QB going out and a lesser one going in. It'll be tough sledding for Cleveland on the road. There's no guarantee they take care of business in this one.

The Jaguars snapped a two game losing streak last time out beating Cincinnati 27-17. Jacksonville was able to run it and throw it really well against the tanking Bengals. Also, the defense played really well, but consider the competition. Jacksonville's hard to get a read on. They lose to the Chiefs and Texans, but then they won two straight before struggling against Carolina and New Orleans. The Jets are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football game against the Patriots, but remember before that they beat the Cowboys at home. Sam Darnold won't be that awful again and will be able to do some work against this defense without Jalen Ramsey. The Jets have been very hard to run on and have had some success against the pass despite being a hideous secondary. The Jags have covered just nine of their last 21 games as a favorite. I think New York can keep things interesting here. 

I'm buying the Chargers at this price on Sunday. LA is 2-4 on the year with the wins coming over the Colts at home and Dolphins on the road. Their four losses are all by seven points or less. This team needs to get their run game going a bit and it should be better with Melvin Gordon continuing to shake off the rust. Philip Rivers probably needs to throw the ball a little less to give more balance. The defense has been awesome against the pass as of late and has been a mixed bag against the run. Being on the road won't bother them that much either. Go figure Tennessee who is also 2-4 on the year. Their wins were at Cleveland and at Atlanta. This team has lost by two at home to Indy and by seven at home against Buffalo. The offense has been so bad that they turned to Ryan Tannehill to start this one. The run game hasn't worked a ton and they've thrown for less then 250 yards in every game. The Titans defense continues to be very good which is a concern. Last year LA won this game 20-19 at home as a seven point favorite. The Titans were able to ground and pound and that helped with the TOP advantage. LA is 13-5-2 the last three years against the spread on the road.

I wrote a really long preview on this game for Athlon Sports. The long and short of it is that I just don't love the Niners on a short week against a team that will take the run away from them. San Fran doesn't want to get into a shootout and I just don't know how well they'll run it without their two starting tackles AND their fullback. Todd Gurley being out is a concern, but this team is used to playing without him. Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson are not bad backups if Gurley is limited. The Rams have had 10 days to stew after their loss to the Seahawks in which they should have won due to a missed field goal. I think LA shows everyone how good they are in this game and gives the Niners their first loss of the season. 

This seems like a great time to back the Cowboys. Dallas is coming off a terrible 12-10 loss where they ran for only 45 yards against the Saints in New Orleans. The Cowboys defense was very strong in the loss as they have been all season long. Yes, they've put up great numbers against the garbage Giants, Redskins and Cowboys, but I see people jumping off the bandwagon here because it's Aaron Rodgers. You can run on the Packers defense so expect Ezekiel Elliott to be fed early and often. The Eagles ran it 33 times which is not their forte and they put up 176 yards. GB's offense threw it 53 times and ran it 20 and that lack of balance won't work against Dallas. Davante Adams is out for the Packers and that means it'll be a really young wide receiver group going up against a really stout secondary. The money is coming in on the road team because of ARod's past few games in Dallas where he's went in and won. This year's offense isn't as potent as those and the Cowboys defense should be able to hold GB down. Give me the home team in this one. 

Baltimore enters this one having lost two in a row to the Chiefs and the Browns. In each game they were gashed on defense by good offenses. Nick Chubb went nuts for Cleveland last week as part of a 40 point explosion. The Ravens offense isn't the issue because they are scoring points, but this defense is a problem right now. Pittsburgh got their first win last Monday against the Bengals and it was because of a very efficient effort by Mason Rudolph. The usage of Jaylen Samuels at wildcat was a nice wrinkle as well. The Steelers D lived in the Bengals backfield and was pretty solid on the back end. It's not great that the road team has won three of the last four games in this series, but I have to like the confidence Pittsburgh has right now. The Steelers are 7-2 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons. I think they have a shot to win this game outright.

I'll take the plunge with the massive home underdog here as I just don't know how good the Chargers are. LA is 1-2 with a six point home win vs. the Colts to go along with a three point loss at Detroit and a seven point home loss to the Texans. LA's passing game has worked, but the kicking game is just so bad. They probably don't run it enough and the defense has been a little leaky at times. They were torched by Deshaun Watson and gave up nearly 400 yards to Indy in week one. If they didn't force four turnovers against Detroit, LA would have lost by a lot more. Look, I know Miami's terrible but they at least showed a little bit more of a pulse with Josh Rosen under center. Everything is bad about the Dolphins but this is the Chargers coming east and playing this team the week before hosting Denver which is a whole lot more important. The Chargers are 10-10-1 against the spread in their last 21 as a favorite. This might be my one and only chance to take Miami to cover and if they get blown out, I'll hate myself, but give me the boatload of points.

I'd play this all the way down to 14.5 although then it becomes a 2% selection

The Steelers are around a touchdown underdog on Sunday as they hit the road to play San Francisco. The Niners are 2-0 and have done everything right so far on both sides of the ball. Upon closer inspection though, they took care of business against the Bucs and Bengals who aren't very good. San Fran racked up almost 600 yards of offense on the Bengals and held them in check defensively as well. Obviously Kyle Shanahan is a good coach and Jimmy G is learning at quarterback, but I think this is a bit of an overreaction. Pittsburgh got blasted in week one by New England 33-3 and then the team lost a tough one 28-26 to the Seahawks. In the contest, Mason Rudolph came in and almost brought his team back. I've liked the kid since Oklahoma State and think he's got the right stuff to keep things going. It looks like James Conner is going to be fine and will play Sunday which will be a help. I also think the locker room gets a boost from the front office trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick who will instantly be an upgrade on the secondary. I think this is a prideful bunch and don't forget the stands will be littered with Steelers fans. Pittsburgh has been a road underdog six times the last three seasons and has covered five of those games. San Fran has been a home favorite just four times the last three years and has failed to cover in all four. The Niners could be an improved team, but I'll dig in and hope for one last great effort from Pittsburgh as they rally behind Rudolph. 

This line is rather crazy as I think the Eagles could be without several key players including DeSean Jackson, Timmy Jernigan and maybe even Alshon Jeffery. I'll add more to this later on in the week, but I think this could be a little closer especially if Carson Wentz has no one to throw to. 

Color me unimpressed with the Falcons after they nearly lost to an Eagles team at home that had like 10 players hurt and Carson Wentz looking terrible. Atlanta can't get any sort of running game going and Matt Ryan is turning it over way too much. ATL has seven turnovers to just one forced. Yes, their secondary is putting up good numbers, but it was helped by the 10 attempts by Minnesota in week one. The Vikings committed to the run and shoved it down the Falcons throats. Atlanta is 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 road games. Indy went 1-1 in their two road games to start the year. The Colts lost 30-24 at the Chargers week one in overtime and then beat the Titans 19-17 on the road. In each contest they were able to run it well and have Jacoby Brissett do enough to win. Indy's defense doesn't get enough credit as they've done pretty well as a unit. Darius Leonard is still one of the better linebackers in the league. The crowd will be fired up to finally have their team home. I think the Colts win this one outright. 

The Andrew Luck news rocked the NFL world on August 24th and then Vegas came out and overreacted to what they saw. Luck was a great quarterback and there's no doubt that the offense won't be as good. Taking over for him is Jacoby Brissett who is no slouch. He's had experience in this system and is playing behind a very improved offensive line. T.Y. Hilton is still a strong receiver and the tight end group is the best in football. I have all the faith in the world that there won't be that much of a decline. The Colts defense is not terrible either. The Chargers offense is without Melvin Gordon and has a mediocre offensive line in my mind. The defense lost Derwin James at safety and I think it's a big loss for that group. To me, it's no guarantee that the Colts lose, but I think that even if they do, it'll be a one score game. Just watch Brissett ball out in this offense.

The final game of the NFL season will feature the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams facing off in Super Bowl LIII. These two teams last faced each other back in 2016, a game the Patriots won 26-10. Tom Brady became the NFL's career leader in victories with that win, No. 201, outdueling then-rookie Jared Goff, who completed less than half of his passes (14 of 32) for a measly 161 yards with a touchdown but also two interceptions.

These teams are no stranger to the Super Bowl stage either, as they met in 2002 in the Superdome for Super Bowl XXXVI. New England won 20-17 as Bill Belichick and Brady got their first Lombardi Trophy and the Patriots' dynasty was officially launched. Brady's numbers weren't spectacular against the then-St. Louis Rams but outplayed Kurt Warner as the New England's defense held the "Greatest Show on Turf" and Adam Vinatieri kicked the game-winning, 48-yard field goal as time expired.

Fast-forward to today, and the Patriots continue to make it to Super Bowls with Brady leading the way. This marks New England's third straight Super Sunday appearance and fourth in the past five years. This version of the Patriots enters the game riding a four-game winning streak after losing back-to-back games to the Dolphins and Steelers. Brady and company have been rolling recently, putting up 116 points in the last three games with rookie running back Sony Michel doing his part. The defense has played well in its own right, but gave up a combined 59 points to the Chargers and the Chiefs on the way to the Super Bowl.

The offense goes as Brady goes, but I could argue that Michel, along fellow backs Rex Burkhead and James White are more important. Heck, throw James Develin in as well, as he's usually money around the goal line. Each RB plays his role very well and is ready when called upon. White was busy as a pass catcher in the Divisional Round win over the Chargers while Burkhead scored both the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter and the game-winner in overtime against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. And of course there's Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski as Brady's other primary targets in the passing game.

I do have questions about New England's defense, but we all know that Bill Belichick has had plenty of time to get his guys ready. I really like the secondary, which is led by Stephon Gilmore, one of the best cornerbacks in football. The front seven isn't exactly littered with a ton of household names, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores finds a way to get the job done. The Patriots have given up a total of 60 rushing yards this postseason.

On the other side, you have the Rams who also have won four in a row after losing in Weeks 14 and 15. The defense has risen to the occasion, holding the Cowboys and Rams to 98 rushing yards combined. Los Angeles' defense has plenty of star power including the likes of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh up front. If there's a weakness on this side of the ball it's with the linebacking corps, which could impact how defensive coordinator Wade Phillips chooses to defend against Gronkowski and New England's pass-catching running backs. The Rams' secondary has plenty of talent, but offseason acquisitions Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters have had inconsistent seasons. Phillips has plenty of experience, however, so expect him to have his unit ready to play.

Regardless of how well the defense fares, Los Angeles' offense will need to hold up its end of the bargain. That starts with how effective Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson are running the ball, which will help the Rams control time of possession. Gurley hasn't looked like himself since early December, which makes Anderson's late-season resurgence even more significant. Jared Goff has had a nice season, but the jury is still out on him as far as getting the job done when the pressure is on and if he's more a product of head coach Sean McVay's play-calling than anything. Goff does have weapons to throw to, starting with Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, but this could be the game where the offense really misses Cooper Kupp in the slot. Josh Reynolds has been a capable replacement and the tight ends also have stepped up on occasion.

As I've said all along during this postseason, I'm not picking against the Patriots. Yes, they lost to the Eagles last year in the Super Bowl, but it took an unreal performance by Nick Foles. I don't see that kind of effort coming from Goff. New England has covered 39 of its last 56 games including 19 of the last 26 against teams with a winning record. To me, this one shows that the wisdom of Belichick is greater than the potential of McVay. The Rams will be back, but the Patriots win this one.

New England beat the Chiefs at home 43-40 back on Oct. 14. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions in that one and the Patriots racked up 500 yards of offense. The Patriots looked like the defending AFC champs last week in a 41-28 win over the Chargers in which they approached 500 yards of offense once again. James White was a huge factor in the passing game and Tom Brady was surgical. I'm not the biggest fan of the defense, but the unit makes plays when it matters. It was impressive to see the plan for that side of the ball considering Brian Flores may or may not be the new head coach of the Dolphins... wink wink.

The Chiefs also were very good in their 31-13 win over the Colts. The more impressive aspect was a Kansas City defense that held Indianapolis under 300 yards of total offense. It was the Chiefs' best defensive effort in quite a while yardage-wise. The run game worked well with 180 rushing yards, which took a little pressure off Mahomes. Damien Williams filled in admirably once again for Kareem Hunt making the running back position not as much of a weakness.

I said it last week and I will continue to say that I will not pick against the Patriots in the AFC side of the playoffs until I see them fall. I'm not a believer in Andy Reid in big games and think Bill Belichick and his staff will outmaneuver him. Brady still has another Super Bowl or two in him. It's not Mahomes' time yet and he'll throw a key interception in a loss. 

These two met back on Nov. 4 in New Orleans with the home team winning 45-35. The Saints were up 35-17 at halftime as both teams were able to throw it around the field with relative ease. Since then there's been some changes to both teams. The Rams' defense played one of its best games of the season last week holding Dallas to just 50 rushing yards on their way to a 30-22 victory. C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley got whatever they wanted against a very good Cowboys defense that seemed helpless at times against Los Angeles' offense.

The Saints, meanwhile, struggled mightily to beat the Eagles 20-14 at home. They found themselves down 14-0 very quickly and it could have been much worse had it not been for a Nick Foles interception. New Orleans' offense moved up and down the field, but it only translated to 20 points. Still, you have to think the Saints like this matchup as Drew Brees will look for Michael Thomas early and often once more. Thomas embarrassed Rams cornerback Marcus Peters in the first meeting. This will be New Orleans' fourth straight at home and that's a huge advantage despite the fact that the team hasn't covered any of these games. I think Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram could get some more work in this one as they open things up against a Los Angeles defense that can be run on.

With regards to this matchup, I'm heavily leaning to the home team. The Saints' defense has been very strong and I like Marshon Lattimore to lock down either Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods. There won't be any rust to knock off for New Orleans in this one. Brees getting back to the Super Bowl in the twilight of his career also gives plenty of people something to write about over the next two weeks.

It pains me to say this as an Eagles fan, but once again I like Dallas on Saturday. The Cowboys didn't play great in their win over the Seahawks last week, but Pete Carroll's gameplan was perplexing to say the least. They continued to try and run the ball instead of unleashing Russell Wilson which is what everyone said Seattle had to do to win the game. The Cowboys defense is going to be the difference in this one as LA limped down the stretch. The Rams lost their last two games against playoff caliber opponents falling 15-6 at Chicago and 30-23 at home to the Eagles. Don't forget how many Cowboys fans will be at this game considering Dallas training camp is in California. Todd Gurley did not show up on the injury report so that probably means he's healthy for the first time since the Philly loss. The Rams defense has not materialized to what we thought it was going to be in the preseason. I'll take the touchdown and say thank you very much.

The biggest spread of the weekend features the defending champs heading to Chicago. The storyline is fascinating with the Bears unnecessarily keeping their starters in last week to beat the Vikings which opened the door for Philly. The Eagles have won three straight and five of their last six overall including victories against the Rams and Texans. Nick Foles has run Doug Pederson's offense very well and the defense is finally playing up to their potential. The return of Darren Sproles has been a big boost too as they can rotate him in with Josh Adams and Wendell Smallwood. Even with the recent success, the secondary is still very patchwork and exploitable. My problem is that I don't think the Bears can take advantage of it. If you've followed my articles, I've faded the Bears on the road whenever I can because I think their offense isn't that great. This one is at home and they'll use Tarik Cohen a ton I'm sure in a bunch of different ways. Chicago's defense at home has been lights out and Khalil Mack is doing great things for the front seven. They clamped down big time on the Rams about a month ago in a 15-6 home win. The Eagles won't mind the cold and will have the experience of last year's Super Bowl run to help them. Foles is playing superbly right now and so is the offensive line that blocked Houston and the Rams very well. The defending champs have an upset in them and it'll close out the Wild Card round.

The Dallas Cowboys swear that they will be playing their starters for this one, but the Vegas line doesn't seem to reflect it. Even if they decide to sit some players, it's not like they can sit everyone. It looks like Zack Martin is one who will be out, but Ezekiel Elliott swears he will play. The team didn't exactly light up the awful Buccaneers racking up only 232 yards of offense against them. Jerry Jones has said he wants to see better from that side of the ball before the postseason. The Giants had won four of five at one point in November, but they've lost their last two falling to the Titans and Colts. Saquon Barkley is losing steam and Odell Beckham isn't 100%. We'll see if the wide receiver plays, but there's really no reason for him to. The defense is a bit banged up with Kerry Wynn and Alec Ogletree both dealing with stuff. I'll bite and take a chance that Dallas keeps their starters in long enough to build a lead and hold on at the end.

I've faded the Bears a lot on the road and I'm going to do it again this Sunday. Chicago is coming off two emotional home wins over the Rams and Packers and now head to sleepy San Francisco to face a 49ers team that has won two straight. Chicago is only 3-3 against the spread away from home, losing to the Giants a few weeks ago. It was a massive party for the Bears after last week's game as the team clinched the division so focus could be a little bit of an issue. San Francisco does scare me with Nick Mullens under center although he's been better as of late. The 49ers' defense isn't that great, but they've held five of their last six opponents to under 220 passing yards. I think we could get an ugly, low-scoring game, which means the home team is worth a look. 

If you have been following my picks all season you know that I'm unreasonably interested in the Dolphins and they've treated me really well. Miami is 7-7 and has a very small chance to make the playoffs and will need a lot of help to get there. The Dolphins have taken care of business at home with a win over the Patriots two weeks ago. Ryan Tannehill is coming off a rough game at Minnesota, but I think he'll do better here against the Jags. Jacksonville has packed it in on the season and has shown little to no interest in playing hard. The Jaguars have scored just 28 points over the last three weeks and don't have what it takes to exploit Miami's defense. I think the Dolphins can run up and down the field on the Jags and if they score early, this one could get really, really ugly.

Pardon me if I don't think everything is fine and dandy with the Vikings after their win over the Dolphins. Minnesota has lost three of its last five and Kirk Cousins has not been showing himself to be worth the money he got this past offseason. The Vikings have thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three straight and four of their last six. These two teams met back on Nov. 4 with Minnesota winning at home, 24-9. Detroit could have possibly have beaten both Arizona and Buffalo these past two weeks. This is the Lions' final home game so I think we see a better effort. Minnesota can't afford to lose this one because of the tight race for the wild-card spots in the NFC. The Vikings have covered just nine of their last 22 on the road. I think Detroit can win this one outright but give me the points. 

I've tried to fade the Bears several times this season and have had mixed results. They are 9-4 against the spread, but their offense doesn't scare me a ton. Mitchell Trubisky is a very hot and cold quarterback and doesn't have a ton of weapons around him at the skill positions. Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard form a nice duo in the backfield and Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel are just okay as wide receivers. It's Chicago's defense that continues to carry the team thanks to a ton of turnovers and the ability to put pressure on the quarterback. Green Bay is coming off a 34-20 win over the Falcons and the defense has perked up a bit as of late. The Packers have given up 20 points each of the last two games. Aaron Rodgers is a guy I want to back in underdog situations whenever I can. The first meeting went to the Packers way back in Week 1 although the Bears dominated the game. I still think the road team is worth a look here.

Last week's loss by the Broncos scared me big time. Their offense isn't good enough to struggle even against a bad defense. They looked pedestrian in San Francisco last week and it showed in the statistics. Cleveland has won three of its last four and the defense is getting a little bit better. Baker Mayfield is capable of lighting Denver's defense up if given the time as it looked bad against Nick Mullens without top cornerback Chris Harris Jr. Bradley Roby is having a tough year sO Jarvis Landry and/or Antonio Callaway could have a big game. Cleveland is 8-5 against the spread this season. Right now the Browns may actually be the better team than the Broncos.

The Lions have lost two straight and five of their last six as they play out the string of another season without the playoffs most likely. Detroit's offense has sputtered a bit down the stretch with turnover problems and a lack of balance. They hope to get Kerryon Johnson back, but Marvin Jones' absence has put a lot on Kenny Golladay and he's struggled with the spotlight. He'll get a lot of Patrick Peterson in this one so he could be a non-factor. Arizona has held each of their last seven opponents to less then 250 yards passing. The Cardinals have to be feeling good after winning in Green Bay. David Johnson and Chase Edmonds were able to get a lot done on the ground which took pressure off Josh Rosen. I think Arizona is worth a look in this one.

The Ravens are going to be pretty sneaky when it comes to the AFC playoffs if they make it. The team has won three straight and has seen their offense come alive with Lamar Jackson under center. They have scored 24 or more in all three of his starts although two of those came at home against the Bengals and Raiders. The defense is also one of the best in football. They held the Falcons to just 97 yards passing in Atlanta last time out. This squad also kept the Titans to just 106 yards and zero points. Kansas City is coming off a 40-33 win at Oakland which gives me pause as to how good their defense will be against the better teams in the league. You can't allow the Raiders to rack up over 400 yards of offense and expect me to take you seriously. The team has struggled as of late to cover games going just 1-3-1 in their last five against the spread. There's also a situational angle here with a home game against the Chargers coming up next. KC has to keep winning to hold off the Patriots, but maybe there's a small eye on Thursday night's affair. I think this one is a bit tighter then you'd think.

Things are going horrendously for the Panthers who have lost four straight with three of those coming on the road. They are finishing up a tough stretch of four away from home over a five week span. Cam Newton is a turnover machine and he threw a bunch more interceptions last week in a 24-17 loss at Tampa Bay. The defense is getting gashed right now too as the secondary just isn't good enough. They go to Cleveland to face a Browns team that came back to earth a bit last week in Houston. They scored just 13 points and managed 31 yards on the ground in the loss. Cleveland's offense is capable of so much more and I think Baker Mayfield bounces back nicely. The Panthers are 1-5 against the spread this season on the road while Cleveland is 4-2 ATS at home. I think the Browns add to the misery of the Panthers.

I have used this article to talk about how the Dolphins have been criminally underrated by Vegas. I'm now going to do the same with the Bills who have been very profitable for me. Buffalo has won two of their last three games and came away with a close 21-17 loss at Miami last time out. Josh Allen is putting up some very good numbers both through the air and on the ground. He should see more opportunities against a Jets team that they beat 41-10 in New York around a month ago. The Bills defense is also a really good unit that has held the last three opponents to 21 points or less. The Jets have lost six straight games with four of those contests being by double digits. It looks like Sam Darnold will be back, but how much will it help. They don't run it well and don't have a ton of weapons. I think the Bills can win this one rather easily as well.

The Dolphins have been a very profitable team for me and in a way, I think they will continue that trend. Miami has lost four of their last five with the win being at home against the Jets in a 13-6 game way back almost a month ago. This team is rather underwhelming on offense with Kenyan Drake not at 100%. I do like Ryan Tannehill, but he's about to face a really good defense and face them twice in the same month. The Bills have won two straight and are really glad to have Josh Allen back under center. He instantly made a difference last week against the Jaguars and will also do so here. Buffalo's defense travels and I think they do so once again here too. The Bills won in Miami last year and I think there's a good chance they do so again this year.

This is one of those situational plays that I'm always talking about. Houston has won eight straight since an 0-3 start and they have a short week to prepare for a suddenly hot Cleveland Browns team. Much like my Dolphins selection last week, the Browns are the cozy little team in the middle of a divisional game sandwich for Houston as they host the Colts next week in a bigger contest. There's a lot to like about this home team, but I think they aren't as focused for this one as they have been. Cleveland has won two straight beating the Falcons and Bengals. Their offense is smoking hot and Baker Mayfield is playing really well. The defense scares me a bit, but they've stepped up during this little win streak. Pretty much every trend you could think of backs the home team so I'm going the other way with Cleveland.

The Broncos are playing some good football now and have an outside shot at the playoffs with the remaining schedule that they have left. Next up is the Bengals who couldn't be any lower then they've been as of late. Andy Dalton is out and now Jeff Driskel is in and I actually like that. Driskel may not be as good, but maybe things won't be as stale on offense. It looks like AJ Green may be back and that'll help things out as well. Denver is not the same team on the road as they are at home. Cincy's defense has been horrendous lately, but Denver's offense is really inconsistent with Case Keenum under center. This is a little bit of a feel play that will feel awful when the Bengals lay another egg.

New Orleans is absolutely steamrolling opponents lately and it's hard to get in front of that train, but I am going to on Thursday. The Saints have had a very tough stretch of teams with the Vikings, Rams and Eagles among their opponents since the end of October. Now they are beginning the first of three away from home with the Cowboys. I know the Saints have to keep winning with the other teams closing in on them atop the NFC. Dallas has won three straight and I've tried to fade them the last two weeks to no success so now I'm going to back them. New Orleans has a very good run defense, but I argue they haven't faced too many teams committed to it as much as Dallas is. Dak Prescott is playing a little better now that he has Amari Cooper out wide. The defense has also been an underrated part of this recent resurrection. The corners are pretty solid and Leighton Vander Esch is a star in the making. To me, this is a little bit too big for a game that could be played once again in the playoffs. Dallas is 4-1 at home against the spread and haven't been a home underdog of this much in quite awhile.

The Colts have won four straight entering this one against the Dolphins. Their offense has been clicking with Andrew Luck firing away at will. I don't trust their defense, but they've been doing enough to get the wins as of late. Indy did allow 28 points at Oakland just a few weeks ago so they can be beaten. In comes the Dolphins who have lost three of their last four, but are coming off the bye week. With that time off, they've been able to get Ryan Tannehill healthy which should help them on offense. Frank Gore is going up against his former team and the defense will present a challenge. Miami has held five of their last six opponents to less then 250 yards passing and that included the likes of the Packers and Texans on the road. This is a divisional game sandwich for the home team who hosted the Jaguars and Titans and will be playing at Jacksonville and Houston coming up. I think focus could be a little bit of an issue.

The Bills had a nice bye week to rest up for the stretch run and the time off means Josh Allen will be back under center. The last we saw this team, they won 41-10 at the Jets two weeks ago. This defense is absolutely fierce against the run and the pass. They are also as healthy as you can get for the most part. Last year, these two played in the playoffs with the Jags winning 10-3 at home in a game that saw Jacksonville rack up just 230 yards of offense. The Jags have lost six in a row and put a lot into their loss against the Steelers last week. The team stifled Pittsburgh for three quarters, but had no faith in their quarterback and the defense struggled to get stops. I think they come out flat as can be in this one. Buffalo will be jacked for this one and may even win outright.

It'll be Colt McCoy under center for the Redskins as they take on rival Dallas. These two teams played a month ago in DC with the Redskins winning 20-17. In that one the Redskins had more rushing yards and the Cowboys missed a late field goal to lose. My concern with the Skins is that they've suddenly gone from a team great against the run to a team that has struggled mightily to stop it. I tried to fade Dallas last week and it didn't work out. Even with the two game win streak, I'm still not all of a sudden buying them as a viable contender in the NFC. I think this is a lower scoring game with Washington's offense maybe looking a little smoother with McCoy who has been there for years.

The Bears defense has been absolutely incredible this season especially with Khalil Mack roaming around. They are holding teams to under 80 yards rushing per game, but that doesn't matter for the Lions. These two teams played in Chicago just 11 days ago with the Bears winning 34-22. I took the under in that one and unfortunately it didn't hit. Mitchell Trubisky had a good game, but it looks like Chase Daniel is under center for the road team. I don't think the Bears skill position guys are good enough to overcome a backup quarterback. Detroit is coming off a 20-19 win over the Panthers. The defense clamped down on the run. On offense, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson look to be out so Kenny Golladay and Theo Riddick will have to step up. I think the Lions can win this one outright. They are used to the Thanksgiving quick turnaround.

Pardon me if I don't think that the Cowboys are back after that win in Philly last week. That game told me more about the Eagles then it did Dallas. They now hit the road for the third time over a four week span to play the Falcons down in Atlanta. The Dallas offense relied heavily on Zeke Elliott and got just enough from Dak Prescott to win. The Falcons have won three of their last four and are coming off a tough loss at Cleveland last time out. They are actually getting a little healthier with Deion Jones being activated and he's going to really help the middle of that defense. Last year the Falcons won this game 27-7. At home, I believe Atlanta's the better team and I think they win this one easily.

It's a divisional battle as the Colts host the Titans. The Colts have won three straight and no coincidence that it's because Andrew Luck and his weapons are healthy. The team has discovered a run game to take a little heat off the signal caller as well. Indy's defense does scare me, but they've done well against the run and making the Titans one dimensional will help. Tennessee is coming off an impressive 34-10 win at home against New England. The Titans have won two straight after losing three in a row. The last time they got a huge win was when they beat the Eagles before that losing streak. They are 2-3 on the road averaging just 17.6 points in those games. The Colts have won 14 of their last 19 at home in this series, covering 12 of those. I think the home team gets the win.

You couldn't get the Jaguars any lower than right now. Jacksonville has lost five straight, including a 29-26 loss at Indianapolis last week. The defense didn't make the stops when it had to in that one and once again the offense didn't do its part. Even with all of that, I still think the Jags are worth a look at home. This is a team that's got a lot of pride and they beat the Steelers twice last year. I'm sure that's part of the reason why this line is so big. It's hard to find anything wrong with Pittsburgh during its current five-game winning streak. They've gotten some extra days to prepare for this one considering they last played on Thursday night. I think Jalen Ramsey is going to do some good work on Antonio Brown which will force Big Ben to find some other weapons. I do like the Steelers' defense too. It's a really underrated unit. The Steelers have been a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points just five times over the last three seasons, covering just one of them. I like the home team to pick things up in this one.

The other half of last week's big game also is in an epic sandwich situation as the Rams take on the Seahawks. Los Angeles lost a heartbreaker to the Saints in New Orleans and has a HUGE matchup with the Chiefs in Week 11 in Mexico City. Many have tabbed that as a Super Bowl preview. Seattle lost to the Rams at home back on Oct. 7 33-31 in a game that saw the Seahawks keep up on the scoreboard despite giving up a ton of yards. Seattle has been a tough team to figure out, as evidenced by last week's 25-17 home loss to the Chargers. The emphasis on getting back to running the football has paid off and the defense has held its own for the most part, but the record shows a .500 team. Los Angeles' defense needs to play better if the Rams hope to go far in the playoffs. To me, this one should be closer than the double-digit spread. I can't imagine that the Rams are 100 percent focused for this despite the loss last week.

The Saints are the talk of the NFL after their home win over the Rams. They added Dez Bryant days ago to an already potent offense. Last week, they went out to a big lead then held on somewhat at the end to get the win. This is their fifth road game over the last seven game weeks so who knows if it'll affect them at all. This is also an epic sandwich game for New Orleans with the defending Super Bowl champions coming to New Orleans next week. I'm not a huge fan of the Saints defense, but I don't know if Cincy can take advantage of it without AJ Green. The Bengals offense will have to get back to the team that scored 37 points on Tampa Bay and Atlanta. They have had the bye week to prepare some stuff and John Ross might be able to play in this one. Cincy's defense scares me, but really I just think this is too perfect a situation for them with New Orleans maybe struggling for focus.

I don't like what i'm hearing from Jacksonville. AJ Bouye told reporters he wasn't playing this weekend and the coach said he had heard differently. The defense is no longer feared that much and although they are coming off a bye week, so are the Colts. I think Indy's offense could give Jacksonville fits and the defense is good enough to slow down Bortles and the boys. Fournette's return is nice, but i'm still stacking the box against him and making the QB beat them. 

The Jets shouldn't be touchdown favorites over anyone. They've lost three straight and six of their last eight games. The Jets will be starting Josh McCown with Sam Darnold dealing with a foot injury. Oddly, this probably makes some people want to back the Jets more. Now, Buffalo has scored just 33 points over its last four games and a lot of that is because Nathan Peterman is the worst quarterback to ever put on the jersey. The team's defense has played very well for the most part, but they are being put in the worst positions. It's crazy to think I like Matt Barkley to cover this number considering he just joined the team but he's better then Peterman. Give me the better defense in this one. 

Way back in Week 2 I backed Miami against the Jets in New York. The Dolphins won the game 20-12, holding the Jets to just 42 rushing yards while forcing three turnovers. Miami put up only 257 yards of total offense but had just two penalties. The Dolphins have lost two straight and four of their last five since putting together a three-game winning streak. The defense has been beaten up and Brock Osweiler has reverted back to normal after a good game against the Bears. The Jets have lost two straight and five of their last seven overall. Sam Darnold has struggled and the running game has been pretty close to non-existent. The defense has actually performed pretty well, but is on the field too much and is tiring towards the end of games. The Jets have covered just six of their last 20 road games. I think the Dolphins add to New York's misery on Sunday.

The Redskins continue to lead the NFC East without even playing their best football. They are on a three-game winning streak because of a very good defense and the revitalization of Adrian Peterson. The front line is really good and the addition of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix will make the back end even better. They aren't even getting much from Alex Smith so if he figures things out then watch out. Atlanta has won two straight and is coming off its bye. I know I said above that I don't like fading teams off their bye, but I'm just not buying the Falcons outside of their dome. They lost in Philadelphia 18-12 back in Week 1 and 41-17 at Pittsburgh to start October. The defense is terrible against the pass and the run game has been bad. Matt Ryan is just not as good outdoors and I think Josh Norman can slow down Julio Jones enough to make the Falcons settle for FGs. Give me the home team in this one.

It's a rematch of the NFC matchup that ended with a Stefon Diggs long touchdown catch and New Orleans experiencing heartbreak. After losing week one to the Bucs, the Saints have won five straight games with three of those being by one score. New Orleans has been running it well with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in the backfield. The duo provide a different look to the defense. The problem for New Orleans has been their defense which has had it's issues at times this season. They managed to hold down the Browns and Redskins at home and the Giants on the road. Of note, this is their fourth road game over five weeks so there could be some weariness which comes into play. Minnesota has won three straight games and has bounced back nicely since losing to the Bills and Rams after a tie against Green Bay. The Vikes are getting good production from Kirk Cousins and the feared defense from last year is finally starting to show up. Last year, the Vikings won both home games against the Saints 29-24 and 29-19 in games that saw the road team fail to run the ball successfully. Minnesota has won 15 of their last 20 home games straight up, covering 14 of them in the process. In a toss up situation like this, I usually lean to the home team especially one that has as tough of a homefield advantage as I've seen in the NFL.

Does anyone else think it's odd that the Giants traded Eli Apple and Damon Harrison this week and yet the line really hasn't moved at all? Apple is a decent cornerback while Harrison is a run stuffer up the middle. New York has been close but no cigar in two of their last three games against the Falcons and Panthers on the road. They showed flashes of a good team on offense, but then the defense couldn't stop the pass. Washington has won two straight and three of their last four yet this line is exceedingly tight. To me, that means there's a bit of a trap involved with this one and I'll take a look at the home team. We know there should be some fireworks between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman. I also think that if New York commits to giving Saquon Barkley the ball consistently, then they could succeed. Both the Panthers and Cowboys got away from the run unreasonably quick and that helped in their demise in DC. I know about the quick turnaround and that Washington is the better team, but this line should be bigger. Last year, New York won at home 18-10 and lost in DC 20-10. This line reeks out loud so I'll take a shot here.

The Seahawks are coming off a bye week to play the Lions on Sunday. Seattle has won three of their last four by pretty much beating up on bad competition. The Seahawks wins have come over Dallas, Arizona and Oakland which don't inspire a ton of confidence. They lost at Denver and at Chicago to go along with a two point home loss to the Rams. Detroit has also won three of their last four with victories over New England, Green Bay and Miami. The Lions have actually discovered a run game which will help them in this one. Seattle no longer has the "Legion of Boom" and has a shell of a defense. Detroit's D has actually held five of their six opponents to less then 250 yards passing as Darius Slay is one of the best corners in football that no one talks about. The Lions lost to the Seahawks in Seattle 26-6 last year in a game that was a mismatch of sorts. Now Detroit is home for this one and I think they play better there and will get the win.

Last week we had the Cowboys and they came through with flying colors. They were able to run it well enough that Dak Prescott could use the playaction game. This doesn't mean that all of a sudden Dallas is fixed and that the anemic offense is going to work. I'm actually more scared of the Cowboys defense then their O and they may get Sean Lee back on Sunday. The Redskins are coming off a 23-17 win against Carolina in which Adrian Peterson ran hard and the defense made the stops when they needed to. Injuries are still a concern with this team, but AP ran hard with a separated shoulder. I still think Washington's offense could be so much better if Alex Smith gets on the same page with his weapons. Dallas swept the Skins last year in two easy victories. This is a feel play for me as I think the Redskins can slow down Ezekiel Elliott and can get just enough points on a Dallas team who is 0-3 on the road.

Upon first glance, this seems to be an easy win for the road team who has put up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. The 49ers have lost four straight and are starting CJ Beathard under center. If you look closer though, there are some scenarios that say the home team is a live dog. This is the Rams third straight road game after two really close wins over Seattle and Denver. They have a stretch of games coming up against Green Bay and New Orleans which are bigger tests in the scope of NFC play. LA's defense can be beaten as evidenced by the solid rushing performance by the Seahawks while three others have put up at least 295 yards passing. Kyle Shanahan's bunch went toe-to-toe with the Packers last week and have actually played several teams close this season. They lost by eight at Minnesota, by two at the Chargers and by three at Green Bay. The defensive numbers aren't the best, but they've done well against the run and have had some success against quarterbacks that aren't Aaron Rodgers. Last year LA won by two in San Francisco and lost by 21 at home to the Niners. The Rams have covered just 16 of their last 39 games. I could look really dumb when LA wins this one easily, but I think they struggle with focus and pull out a close one.

Jacksonville was undressed by the Cowboys last week and have now lost two straight and three of their last four. The defense has given up 70 points the last two weeks at Kansas City while the offense has pitifully scored just 21. Blake Bortles has had some issues while the run game struggled without Leonard Fournette. This team has not played well this season outside of a couple of early games. Houston has won three straight since opening up the year with three losses. Deshaun Watson has played well for the most part outside of last week's headscratching performance. The defense is playing a lot better as of late and this team will be looking for revenge after two asskickings at the hands of the Jags last year. Jacksonville has covered just seven of their last 18 games at home. Give me the live road dog in this one.

I think the Bills defense is one of the most underrated units in football and the Colts have a tremendous amount of injuries on offense. Derek Anderson starting for Buffalo will motivate them a lot more then Nathan Peterman. I just think this is a rather large number and Indy will struggle to cover it. 

Jacksonville is coming off getting undressed by the Chiefs last week in a game that they hyped up as a potential AFC title game. The Jags offense had five turnovers while the defense couldn't make stops when they had to. Blake Bortles is putting up a lot of yardage, but this could actually be the team's stiffest test on defense. Dallas has held three of their opponents to 20 points or less and has done well against the ground game. Yes, they were gashed in Houston by Deshaun Watson, but there's no DeAndre Hopkins in Jacksonville. The Cowboys offense has been a massive issue with Dak Prescott struggling and no real weapons to use other then Ezekiel Elliott. Still, with them coming home, I think we see a better effort. The team is 2-0 in front of their fans and Jacksonville has a home divisional game on tap next week. Dallas has been a home underdog of 3 points or less three times the last three seasons and has won two of them outright. I'll take Dallas plus the points.

I wrote the preview for the Chiefs/Broncos game a couple of weeks ago and called for a Denver victory which did not come. The Broncos were a completed pass to Thomas late in the game away from making that prediction come true. The Rams are one of the best teams in football, but their leaky defense concerns me. I'll call for the upset once again this one as I think Denver's defense could present some problems for LA. The elevation could always be a factor as well. I think we get Case Keenum's best effort and Jared Goff gets harassed into a couple of turnovers as the road team loses their first game of the year.

I've been involved with the Dolphins a little too much so far this season, but I've also been 4-0 against the spread in those matchups. Miami has lost two straight against the Patriots and Bengals, but return home where they are 2-0. Their offense is rather underwhelming with just 288.2 yards per contest. They've struggled with turnovers as of late with five over the last two games. The team was beating the Bengals 17-10 entering the fourth quarter before self-destructing. I'm higher on the Dolphins then most, and somewhat lower on the Bears then others. They are 3-1 and coming off a bye week. Last time out Chicago destroyed the Bucs 48-10 in a game that saw Mitchell Trubisky go crazy. That's been a bit of an outlier for the offense as they scored just 63 points in the other three games. This is their third road game so far and they do have New England at home next week. Chicago has failed to cover in 12 of their last 18 road games and six of their last nine as a favorite. Give me the Dolphins in this one. 

Continuing the theme of taking teams at their lowest, I'm going to back Atlanta in this one. Tampa Bay is coming off their bye week and is turning back to Jameis Winston under center. Winston cannot fix a defense that is allowing almost 450 yards per game. Tampa allowed 40 points at New Orleans and 48 at Chicago. They have a non-existent run game unless Ronald Jones gets more looks. Yes, Atlanta's defense has been terrible and may not get better due to injuries. They've lost a couple of safeties and a linebacker and that's going to weaken their back end. Still, Matt Ryan is a lot better at home and the likes of Freeman and Coleman should be able to find holes against the awful Buccaneers. The Falcons have covered 19 of their last 31 against conference opponents. I think we see them win and win rather easily.

The Seahawks are getting their first taste of football in London on Sunday. Six teams have not stepped foot in England yet so far and it seems to be a bit of a hinderance to the first timers. The Cardinals, Ravens and Browns all had their first taste last year and all lost to their opponents by a combined score of 110-23. Oakland played in Wembley Stadium back in 2014 and also has played twice in Mexico City. The roster is different from that first European game, but some of the key players have done this before. On the field, Oakland has won just one game and are coming off a 26-10 loss against the Chargers. This would be their fourth game away from home so far this season. Let's not forget it's also Marshawn Lynch's revenge game. Seattle is 2-3 and also playing their fourth game away from home. Their offense has been a bit stagnant lately with the defense having issues slowing down opponents with good passing games. I think the Lynch factor as well as well the newness of European games for Seattle means I like the Raiders even as slight underdogs.

The Cowboys are coming off a 26-24 home win over the Lions in which they were able to run the ball a ton and get just enough from Dak Prescott. The defense did its part although it has allowed 24 points in each of the last two games. Houston picked up its first win of the season, beating the Colts 37-34 in overtime at their place. Deshaun Watson has come alive the last two games and has flashed the potential we saw last year. The Texans' D has had its issues this season against the pass although the secondary doesn't figure to be challenged by Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup. I don't think Dallas' issues are fixed because of one victory. I think Houston's crowd will be pumped up to be home for just the second time this season. The Texans are by far the better team in this game. 

The Giants are going to be healthier on defense for this matchup on Sunday. It looks like Eli Apple and Olivier Vernon will be ready and the front line will add Josh Mauro, who can help an anemic pass rush. Carolina is 2-1 and are coming off one of those early bye weeks. The Panthers really have yet to put it all together on offense with two games in which they featured a solid run game and one (at Atlanta) in which they were successful through the air. Carolina's secondary is suspect so if New York's offensive line can give Eli Manning enough time, he should be able to find Odell Beckham Jr. or Sterling Shepard downfield. I am by no means saying that the Giants are a good team, but I think this is a lot of points for a Panthers team that does a lot of things good, but nothing spectacularly. I'd like to see New York feed Saquon Barkley more, but that will depend on game flow. Carolina has covered just nine of its last 22 games as a favorite. As long as this stays at a touchdown or more, I'm taking the underdog.

The Browns are 1-0-1 so far this season at home and are coming off a tough loss at Oakland in overtime. They arguably had that game won after several bad calls from the officials. The offense was very balanced with ground and air success. I'll admit that I've undersold the Ravens all season, especially last week in Pittsburgh. Their WR group is good enough and the myriad of tight ends are effective as well. I like the home team in this one. I think Cleveland is a very live underdog.

This feels like another Patriots blowout on Thursday night as they host the Colts. New England is coming off a 38-7 win over the Dolphins at home last week. They got solid work from Sony Michel and James White out of the backfield while Tom Brady was efficient as usual. The defense ate up Miami and could do the same against the Colts. Indy is playing their third road game over their last four weeks. They lost a tough one to the Texans last time out 37-34 at home in a game that saw Frank Reich go for it on 4th down in overtime in their own territory. Andrew Luck was great as he always is at home. The problem is his road splits as he's thrown for 177 and 141 yards away from home against the Redskins and Eagles. Injuries will be a huge issue for the road team as well. They had 11 players not participate in Tuesday's practice and it looks like Jack Doyle and TY Hilton may not play on offense as well as Darius Leonard, Kenny Moore and Clayton Geathers on defense. Heck, Adam Vinatieri is dealing with a groin injury and isn't guaranteed. Yes, the Pats may not have Gronk, but Julian Edelman is due back for this one. Anthony Castonzo and Marlon Mack had limited participation and there's a chance neither of them will play. New England's last home Thursday night game was 2016 when they shut out the Texans 27-0. In short quick weeks, the edge also has to go to the better coach and that's the home team. They've covered 30 of their last 42 games overall. This one should be a romp on Thursday.  

It's gutsy to get in front of the Chiefs right now considering they are putting up almost 40 points per game. Still, I think the run ends on Monday night. Their defense is allowing nearly 500 yards per game. This is the third road game over the first four weeks for the Chiefs. Pat Mahomes is putting up incredible numbers and I'm not going to take that way from them. This is the best defense they will have faced though to start out the season. Denver's secondary has been a little bit disappointing, but Roby and Harris are one of the best duos in the league and they have solid safeties as well. I think Case Keenum and that offense can move the ball on KC and I think they can play just enough to defense to make things interesting.  I'm concerned about the coaching advantage that the road team has, but I just think home dogs on Monday night are worth a look often.

The Steelers picked up the win on Monday night 30-27 over the Buccaneers. I think a victory like that helps with confidence especially with the Ravens coming to town. Big Ben racked up the yards once again and the defense forced four turnovers. It's a concern that the secondary has been bad the last two weeks, but I'm really not a believer in the Ravens offense. They use a mediocre group of running backs to go along with their revamped WR corps. Baltimore's defense held up well in their two home games, but were gashed by the Bengals in week two on the road. This starts a stretch of three straight and four of five away from Baltimore. The Browns and Chiefs at least threatened the Steelers with a run attack that the Ravens just can't produce. Pittsburgh is the better team right now despite the worse record. I think they get the win in this one.

We couldn't be getting the Patriots any lower then we are this week. New England is coming off a 26-10 loss at Detroit in which they looked really anemic and slow as a team. They managed just 120 passing yards while allowing over 400 yards to the Lions. Typically, a bounce-back always comes and it will on Sunday. They figure to have Josh Gordon out there which will open things up for everyone else. Miami is 3-0 and i'm glad for it because I've been on them all season long so far. The thing is, they've done it with just enough offense and stops on defense. The Fins have thrown for more then 250 yards just once while allowing the last two opponents to crack the 300 yard mark. Last year, New England won this game at home 35-17 while falling down in Miami 27-20. They've covered 17 of their last 27 meetings with the Fins at home. I think that trend continues.

Things couldn't be any lower for the Cardinals right now. Arizona has scored just six points total in losses to the Redskins and Rams. Sam Bradford has been terrible under center leading me to believe Josh Rosen could see the field soon. Still, they have some talent with David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. The defense has been beaten up with the Redskins grinding them down on the ground while the Rams took to the air. The Bears are flying high after a home win over the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. It's a quick turnaround for this team and a long flight as well. Chicago arguably could be 2-0 after they blew the first week in Green Bay. Chicago has covered just five of their last 17 road games and won only two of them outright. I think there's a chance that they struggle in this one on the road.

The Bengals are 2-0 so far with 34-23 wins over the Colts and Ravens. This is part of a stretch where they have three of their first four on the road. I'm not buying Cincinnati yet this season despite their early success. Joe Mixon is injured so that means Gio Bernard is taking on a bigger role. Of course i'm concerned about AJ Green going nuts on this bad Carolina secondary, but I think the Panthers can get enough pressure to make Andy Dalton uncomfortable. Carolina lost 31-24 in Atlanta last time out. They struggled with the Falcons balance allowing 170 rushing yards in the loss. The Panthers are a better team at home though as showed in the team's 16-8 win over the Cowboys in week one. Cincy has allowed over 300 yards passing in both wins this season. Some of that is because the teams were throwing to come back, but still, I think there's opportunities for Cam Newton. Cincy is just 8-8 against the spread the last three seasons on the road. I like the Panthers in this spot especially at this key number.

This seems like an immense trap of a line, but I'll bite. I've been on the Dolphins twice already this season and have liked what I've seen. Kenyan Drake and the run game has taken some pressure off Ryan Tannehill. Still, the team has to cut down on the turnovers with four of them so far this season. Oakland's defense has been gashed on the ground and through the air because they've got no one to rush the pressure or make a difference. Miami's defense has actually played pretty well despite having a lack of stars. They've also seen two of the weaker offenses in football in the Titans and Jets. The Raiders have scored 32 points on the Rams and Broncos. The run game has not gotten to 100 yards in a game yet this season. It means more work for Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. It's the team's second straight road contest as they head to the east coast. Last year the Raiders won in Miami 27-24 in a game that saw both teams put up pretty close to the same numbers. I'll bite on the potential trick line and take the home team.

The Redskins are one of those teams giving their fans a huge swing of emotions. Week 1 brought an easy win in Arizona and the revitalization of Adrian Peterson in the win. Week 2 brought a 21-9 home loss in front of a bad crowd in which the offense struggled to get anything going. I think this team is somewhere in the middle as Alex Smith is better then he played last week. The Skins defense held up pretty well as well for the most part, but even they could improve. Green Bay comes into this one off two tough home divisional games. Aaron Rodgers isn't 100%, but is still throwing dimes out there. The defense was beaten up by Kirk Cousins last week. I think the home team is worth a look as an underdog. I think we get a better effort before their bye week.

Both of these NFC East teams are 0-1 and are in risk of falling even further out of the race with another loss. The Cowboys scored eight points and failed to get Ezekiel Elliott on track. The team saw Dak Prescott struggle terribly to get the ball to his mediocre wide receivers. Defensively, Dallas played pretty well although they allowed nearly 150 yards on the ground. The Giants struggled to run against Jacksonville outside of one long run by Saquon Barkley. Eli Manning locked in on Odell Beckham and fed him a ton of talents. The Cowboys don't have a cornerback capable of covering him so OBJ should go nuts in this one. New York's defense hung tough against the Jaguars and will probably stuff the box once again in this one. Dallas is just 8-9 ATS at home the last three seasons. Vegas thinks this is essentially a pick'em on a neutral field. I think the road team is the better squad so give me the points.

The two teams in this matchup combined for nine turnovers in losses in week one. San Francisco coughed it up four times in a 24-16 loss to the Vikings. This is their only home game in the month of September. I'm just not a 49ers guy as I don't think their offense is good enough and I think their defense is exploitable. The running game features Matt Breida and Alfred Morris. You can't get much lower then the Lions who had five turnovers and looked awful on a larger stage falling to the Jets 48-17. Quite often, I like to fade teams making this quick turnaround, but really I think the Lions are better then they showed and this is a slight overreaction by Vegas. The defense should be able to shut down the Niners run game and the passing attack doesn't scare anyone either. SF has covered just five of their last 16 home games and 13 of their last 33 overall. I don't think the Lions win outright, but we'll see a better effort.

The Jets were arguably the biggest story outside of Aaron Rodgers in week one. Sam Darnold throws an interception on his very first pass and then the team goes nuts in a huge blowout win over the Lions. Darnold looked fantastic and the defense made a boatload of stops. They forced five turnovers in the win and were able to run the ball really well. Now they return home to host the Dolphins who are coming off a 27-20 win over the Titans. Ryan Tannehill looked pretty good going 20-for-28 for 222 yards. The defense played well enough to win themselves. Last year these two split their matchups with the home team winning. I really think it's a lot to ask the young Jets to keep their focus to the field after everyone talked about how great they are. 

I'm a huge Denver Broncos guy this season so if they continue to get underpriced then I will be on them often. Case Keenum comes in to save the quarterback position for the home team after years of ineptitude. Keenum has a pair of solid but aging receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Royce Freeman is also going to be an intriguing piece at running back. All of that on offense plus a nasty defense makes the Broncos scary. The secondary will be just as good while the front seven should get pressure on an awful OL. Seattle's defense is no longer the Legion of Boom and doesn't scare anyone. The Seahawks offense features a rotation of running backs and Doug Baldwin. I realize Denver has had their issues in the past, but this team is a lot more improved and very tough to beat at home.

This one is a feel play on my part. I'm not a Titans guy to say the least. Their offense doesn't scare me with Marcus Mariota leading the way. The wide receivers are young and have potential, but I don't like Mariota's chances of getting them the ball. The defense doesn't scare me that much despite their offseason additions. The team is 8-10 the last three years on the road and has covered just seven of those contests. Ryan Tannehill is running out of chances with his fanbase, but I still think he can be a talented quarterback. Kenyan Drake is not a bad running back and they have some good wide receivers. Miami's defense does scare me a bit, but I think they are a good bet as a home underdog. They've been a home dog just six times of three points or less the last three seasons and have won three of those games. Last year Miami won at home 16-10 in an ugly game. I think we could see another ugly one on Sunday.

The Eagles are going to be a fantastic team this season. The key phrase there is going to be. Philly will be playing this game without Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery and Timmy Jernigan. Three key pieces that will hopefully be back at some point. The coach is having a bit of a problem with the media and their reporting of his quarterback situation. Nick Foles most likely is getting the call and he's struggled during the preseason. Everyone seems to be thinking that he'll turn it on once the regular season begins, but that's not a guarantee. A full strength Atlanta team nearly won in Philly last year. The Eagles D is going to be very good and will keep the team in the game, but it'll be tired when the O struggles to move the ball. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones should be able to connect for a touchdown at least. The loss of Nigel Bradham means that Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman should be able to roam free in the passing game. I think the road team can win this game outright. There's so much not to like about the vibe coming out of Philly. The team is taking down a Super Bowl champs sign in the locker room because it was bothering them. They don't seem exactly focused. 

Quite simply, this is a playoff elimination game and these two teams couldn't be going in more different directions. The Seahawks have lost two straight and are coming off an undressing at the hands of the Rams 42-7. Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season and the once vaunted defense was sniping at each other through the media afterwards. Dallas, meanwhile, has won three straight and is getting a highly motivated Ezekiel Elliott back in the backfield. The defense has improved with the health of Sean Lee improving. The Seahawks are 10-14 ATS the last three seasons on the road. I think the Cowboys roll in this one.

I guess I shouldn't still be questioning the Rams, but I think the Titans are worth a look here. Tennessee's defense is holding opponents to 87.2 yards per contest on the ground so it might be tough sledding for Todd Gurley. Jared Goff has thrown for less then 250 yards in three straight and four of his last five games. This is a team also playing their third road game over their last four weeks and is coming off an emotional 42-7 win over the Seahawks in Seattle. Tennessee is at a low point with two straight losses to Arizona and San Francisco in which they didn't show much of a pulse. That's why I think we're getting some value here considering the Titans are in the playoff mix and have the talent to keep this game close. This could be a flat spot for the Rams.

Philly needs one more win to clinch a bye and two more potentially to get the number one seed overall. They'll have to do so without their starting quarterback who got hurt against the Rams. Now Nick Foles takes over and that means a bigger emphasis on the run game and the defense. The Giants are allowing nearly 400 yards of offense per game and have not managed much offensively. Eli Manning's return last week seemed like a feel good story when in reality it produced the team's fourth straight effort of 20 points or less. The first game between these two back in September was Jake Elliott's coming out party. It also featured Odell Beckham who has been long gone. To me, until I see something from the Eagles, I'll fade them especially at this bloated number.

I hate myself for considering this, but I think the Browns might be worth a look. I've said on twitter that if you bet on this team and complain afterwards then you deserve it. Unfortunately, now I'll be in this situation because I think this is the right spot to play them. The Cleveland offense is showing pulses and I don't know if the Ravens have someone to shut down Josh Gordon. Baltimore is coming off a tough loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh where they allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw for over 500 yards. If DeShone Kizer can just limit the mistakes, they have a shot to win. Baltimore's offense doesn't scare me very much and Cleveland's defense is showing flashes of improvement. They've held two of their last four opponents to less then 20 points.

That sound you hear is members of the national media jumping off the Eagles bandwagon after they lost to the Seahawks last week. Philly couldn't contain Russell Wilson and made some rare mistakes on offense. Now they have stayed out West all week long and will take on a Rams team that has been a great story. Los Angeles has won two straight since getting "exposed" against Minnesota. The run game has struggled and should continue to do so against an Eagles team that is very stingy against it. There are stories about the Rams practicing with a silent count as Philly will be bringing plenty of fans to this one. I think we get a really focused effort and a win from the road team who will be eager to fix what went wrong last week.

This is purely a situational play as I've got to wonder what the Bengals have left after their horrendous loss to the Steelers on Monday night at home. Not only did they fall in that one, but Adam Jones, Joe Mixon and Vontaze Burfict all got hurt and are questionable for this weekend. It bears watching to see their status because those are some important pieces. The Bears have lost five straight and have not played well either as of late. That's what makes it tough to make this play is that Chicago's offense has managed just 287 yards the last two games total. Their defense isn't awful so they should be able to keep them in this game. One situation in our favor is that the Bears have covered 10 of their last 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. With such a low total, we may see a close game since Vegas isn't expecting much.

The Giants finally got rid of Ben McAdoo and now Eli Manning is back under center so I'm expecting a better effort now at home as they take on Dallas. The Cowboys snapped a three game losing streak with a 38-14 effort against the Redskins. In that one, they discovered the run game while Dak Prescott passed for 93 yards. The defense forced four turnovers, but I really don't think they are that good. Sean Lee is probably coming back which is good for them, but not enough. Manning is playing his last few games at home and as a member of the Giants most likely. New York has covered 15 of their last 25 at home in this series. I think they can win this one outright on Sunday as we get a really motivated team under "new" leadership.

Minnesota is wrapping up three straight on the road as they take on Carolina on Sunday. The Vikings have been incredible, but I think they become a bit road weary in this one. As a matter of fact, they've played just one true home game since October 29th when they were in Europe. The defense has been great especially against the run. The offense has not had a turnover the last three weeks. Carolina has won four of their last five entering this one. This offense is dealing with a lack of true weapons especially since Greg Olsen is not 100% once again. It's a concern that the usually strong Panthers defense has allowed 21 points or more in three straight, but at home this team is very good. They have covered nine of their last 12 games as an underdog with seven straight up wins. I think there's some value here with the home dog.

The Eagles start a three game road trip with the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Philly has the best record in football and is putting up nearly 32 points per game. They've also feasted on a lot of bad opponents. Now Seattle's defense isn't the same without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, but it's still a tough place to play and there's still some talent in the front seven. Russell Wilson is also one of the best quarterbacks that the Eagles have seen this season. He can beat you on the ground and through the air. Even though the Seahawks are a one dimensional team, I still think they can play ball control and keep this thing close. They've been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just 26 times since 1992 and have covered 17 times. I think this is a bit of an overreaction.

I did the preview for this matchup for Athlon Sports and there I predicted an outright Arizona win. Basically, I think this is a trap game for a young Rams team before a huge contest at home against the Eagles. Arizona's defense is capable of holding this team down and they'll be motivated after an embarrassing 33-0 effort in October overseas. I think this is a lot of points and I can only hope Blaine Gabbert keeps the mistakes to a minimum.

In one of the least watched and least important games of the week, I've managed to find some value. The 49ers fly east as they take on the Bears. San Fran fans are hyped over Jimmy Garoppolo's final drive which led to a touchdown. They've been pretty bad offensively and not very good defensively either. You could say the same thing about the Bears who are coming off an uninspiring effort in Philly against the Eagles. Chicago's run game produced just six yards on 14 carries. Still, it's probably the best unit of any group in this contest. The Bears have played "well" at home with wins over the Steelers and Panthers there. San Francisco has covered just seven of their last 21 road games. I think the Bears win this one.

Last week we were on the Vikings, who exposed the Rams and this week I'm going to look at that same Los Angeles team to do the same to the Saints. New Orleans extended its streak to eight in a row after a come-from-behind victory at home over a banged-up Redskins squad. This Saints team saw their defense get beaten up and I think the Rams can do the same, especially with Todd Gurley leading the way on the ground. New Orleans hasn’t necessarily faced a potent offense, which skews the defense’s statistics a bit. Give Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips some time to prep and he'll have a good game plan to counter Drew Brees and the Saints’ running game. Los Angeles has won four of its last five and I expect Gurley to be even more involved moving forward. I think the Rams hold serve at home in this one.