You can't get any lower on the Broncos, which is why I'll take a chance on them Sunday. Paxton Lynch is getting the start and he might be the best of the three options when it comes to Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler. I saw a stat on Twitter that said quarterbacks have a 113.2 passer rating when facing the Raiders this season. Oakland's defense has been terrible. The offense also has been inconsistent, scoring fewer than 20 points in five of the past seven games. Yes, Denver's defense has had a bad couple of weeks, but I still believe in this unit, for some reason. The Broncos also have won 16 of their last 26 straight up in Oakland. I think there's a chance they can do it again.

The Cowboys couldn't be much lower right now after they got crushed at home by the Eagles. They've lost two straight scoring just 16 points against Atlanta and Philly. The defense has been bad and the offense can't get much going. Tyron Smith is returning and it's important considering you can run on San Diego. The Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the league despite the solid front line with Bosa and Ingram. Alfred Morris was able to find some holes against the Eagles. San Diego has to fly to Dallas on a short turn around and they've lost two of their last three. LA has been a terrible favorite failing to cover in 10 of their last 15 games as a favorite. I think Dallas can win this one outright, but I'll take the points. 

The Bills benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman thinking that will be some magic elixir to fix their issues as of late. Taylor is not the reason that the defense has been gashed. The acquisition of Kelvin Benjamin helped, but the signal caller also needs more time to build chemistry with him. Los Angeles has lost two straight, but each were very close contests. They need to get Melvin Gordon going and I think it happens against this defense that has allowed over 450 yards on the ground the last two weeks. To me, this is a blowup spot for the home team who could take advantage of a Bills team wondering what the front office is doing.

This is a huge matchup in the NFC as the Vikings host the Rams. Both teams have put up good defensive numbers while their offenses have been pleasant surprises. The Vikes are holding opponents to just 81.3 rushing yards per game which will be important in stopping Todd Gurley. Gurley's success has been able to help Jared Goff do well. Minnesota's run game has not failed as much as we thought when Dalvin Cook went down because Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have picked up the slack. Case Keenum is playing good football, but there's also a chance we see Teddy Bridgewater who is healthy and ready in the wings. Minnesota has covered 17 of their last 22 home games and 29 of their last 42 overall. I guess it's weird to say considering they are 7-2, but I'm not sure if the Rams are for real. They've played a pretty easy schedule so far. I'll take the home team in this one.

The Redskins are a hard team to figure out. They went to Seattle two weeks ago and clamped down on the Seahawks holding them to just 14 points. Last week they scored 30 on a great Vikings defense, but allowed 38 in the process. I think we get a better effort from this defense who is healthier now. The offensive line is also pretty much intact helping them out in giving Kirk Cousins some time. The Saints current stretch of defensive success the last four weeks showed them shutting down the likes of Brett Hundley, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston and Tyrod Taylor/Nathan Peterman. I think they get a step up here in quality and there will be some struggles. The Redskins can shut down the run and force Drew Brees to do a little more. Washington is 17-12 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog.

It's almost like I’m calling this "Show Me Sunday" because I don't believe the Cowboys’ defense has suddenly turned the corner and is no longer a bad unit. Dallas held San Francisco, Washington and Kansas City all under 20 points over the last three weeks while registering double-digit victories against each. Dallas will go home to host NFC East leader Philadelphia as the first of the three straight home dates after this, so there's a shot we may not get a focused effort against a desperate Falcons team. Atlanta has lost four of its last five and just finished up a stretch of three straight on the road. Matt Ryan got Julio Jones involved more last time out, but it wasn't enough in a three-point loss at Carolina. The best part about locking this in now is that you may get the bonus of Ezekiel Elliott not playing if his latest appeal is denied later in the week

No one would have thought that the Jets would have had the better record at this point before the season began. New York has been a pleasant story with Josh McCown leading the offense and the defense doing work as well. The Jets have lost three of four but are coming off of a convincing victory over the Bills last Thursday. Tampa Bay has lost five straight and will be without Jameis Winston (injury) and Mike Evans (suspension). Yet, I still don't feel like I'm ready to back the Jets as a road favorite. Tampa Bay's defense has been awful, but may get cornerback Brent Grimes back. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center and still has DeSean Jackson out wide along with some decent running backs. I might be guilty of trying to stay with a bad team too long, but I think the Buccaneers are a live dog.

The Saints hit the road to play the Bills in a game that will feature temperatures around 40 degrees. New Orleans has won six straight after an 0-2 start. The Saints have been able to run the ball and take some pressure off of Drew Brees. A negative development is that the offense has started to turn the ball over with four straight games of at least two. The defense is putting up improved numbers, but I'm still not buying in. Over this span, the Saints really haven't seen too many good offenses with the likes of Tampa Bay, Green Bay (sans Aaron Rodgers) and Chicago the opponents. Buffalo lost 34-21 last Thursday to the Jets. Despite that the Bills have won four of their last six. LeSean McCoy should bounce back and this will be the first game for Kelvin Benjamin with this new team. Tight end Charles Clay also is working his back from injury, so it will be interesting to see this offense once all of the pieces are together. I'm not buying the Saints as a road team outside yet, especially in Upstate New York.

I backed the Pack two weeks ago at home against New Orleans and it didn't work out. Two weeks later, I'm going to back them again at home fresh off a bye week. Brett Hundley is better then he played against the Saints and with two weeks to prepare, I think we see a better effort. Aaron Jones is running the ball well and has taken a stranglehold of the position. The Packers defense is on par with the Lions although they are more vulnerable on the ground which Detroit won't be able to take advantage of. The Lions have lost three straight and four of their last five games as Matt Stafford has hit a bit of a rough patch. Detroit didn't capitalize on their red zone trips at home against Pittsburgh last time out and now heads to Green Bay. The Lions have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 games as a road favorite of three points or less. I think the Packers bounce back. 

To me, it's kind of a joke that the Raiders are favored in this one. They've lost four of their last five as the defense continues to fail and the offense doesn't do enough. The addition of Marshawn Lynch hasn't added what the team thought it would and Derek Carr at times is doing a little bit too much. The defense has sprung too many leaks for my liking either. Now Miami isn't much better right now as they trade Jay Ajayi and are coming off a 40-0 loss at Baltimore. This snapped the team's three game win streak. The defense has played pretty well for the most part while Jay Cutler returns to the lineup along with DeVante Parker most likely. Miami should be able to take advantage of Oakland's banged up secondary. I think they win this one outright so I'll gladly take the points.

I know that the Titans are coming off a bye week, but so is Baltimore who played last Thursday in their romp over Miami. The Ravens defense is getting healthier and it's showing on the field as they held the Dolphins to less then 200 yards of total offense. Their own offense has been an issue although Alex Collins is taking over the reins at running back and Danny Woodhead is working his way back as well. Tennessee has been held to 14 points or less in three of their last four and have been relatively unimpressive on both sides of the ball. They should have lost in Cleveland two weeks ago and are not looking like the team we thought they would be. Tennessee has covered just 14 of their last 39 games and eight of their last 30 against the rest of the AFC. I think this is a lower scoring game and the underdog is better suited for those.

This one is going to be a lower scoring game. Denver's defense is good enough to hold down the Philly offense and despite all the situations that go against them, I think that this is a lot of points. 

The Buccaneers were the preseason chic pick and unfortunately they have not lived up to it. Tampa's two wins were at home against the Bears and the Giants. The defense is not in good form right now allowing 30 points or more three times this season although all of those were on the road. Now they come home in a spot where little is expected of them. Jameis Winston is putting up good numbers through the air although they need to cut down the turnovers. Carolina has lost two straight and Cam Newton is struggling with consistency and answering questions from the media. The defense has been it's typically strong self, but it hasn't been enough during this losing streak. Last year, the Bucs won two close low scoring games forcing seven Carolina turnovers along the way. I don't like to go against the line move because usually those guys are right, but I think we're getting Tampa in a good spot. Carolina is playing their fourth road game this month and I think it catches up to them here.

The mismatch of all mismatches on paper, but this screams situational play with the road team. First off, rain is in the forecast which may play a factor in the playcalling for the Eagles who have been very balanced. Philly is coming off a highly emotional Monday night game against the Redskins and have a bigger test next week against the Broncos. They also lost Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks who are two valuable cogs to the offense and defense. San Francisco has lost five games by three points or less this season and that includes at Seattle, Arizona and Washington. Of concern is the amount of travel that they have done as of late, but I think they get to play an unfocused Eagles team that is hearing how good they are from all angles. As an Eagles fan, I hope this isn't a sweat, but I think it will be.

The Raiders are heading east to play the Bills on Sunday and everyone is back on their bandwagon after the home win last Thursday over the Chiefs. As Lee Corso says, not so fast my friends. That victory snapped a four game losing streak and showed an Oakland team that couldn't run and struggled at times to stop the pass. Marshawn Lynch will miss the contest due to suspension. The Bills have been a huge surprise sitting at 4-2 on the season. They are coming off an impressive comeback win over Tampa Bay at home. Jordan Matthews is getting healthy and giving Tyrod Taylor another weapon. Shady McCoy should have his way in this one against a vulnerable Raiders D. Yes, Buffalo has shown some leaks against the pass allowing their last two opponents to put up over 300 yards through the air, but I think they match up well with Oakland. The money move is with the road team. I think the home team takes this one.

I think we're getting the Broncos in a good spot right here as they go for the season sweep of the Chargers. Denver is coming off a tough performance at home over the Giants where they threw for 366 yards, but three turnovers did them in. The defense was fine although the run did beat them. The Broncos won the season opener between these two 24-21 at home and was able to do so because of a late FG miss. The Chargers have won two straight and now head "home" where they've lost all three games. Los Angeles has played enough defense and gotten enough from Philip Rivers to win these last two. LA has covered just five of their last 19 contests at home and four of their last 14 as a favorite. There's a modest concern about Denver looking ahead to Monday Night in Kansas City next week, but the loss to the Giants may be preventing that.

This is the ultimate contrarian play that fits in with this current season's trends. People are completely writing off Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers. Yes, Brett Hundley did not look good against the Vikings, but that was a tough defense on the road. Now he gets a full week to gameplan against a Charmin soft New Orleans defense that is allowing almost 270 yards per game through the air. This might be my favorite play of the weekend. Let's remember that one of the reasons the Saints didn't choke a huge lead to the Lions at home was because of five turnovers forced. That won't happen on the road in Green Bay where the gameplan will be conservative I'm sure. Green Bay's defense has not allowed a single quarterback to throw over 250 yards. The Packers have been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just 10 times since 1992 covering seven of those. New Orleans has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points just once the last three seasons. I think Green Bay can win it outright, but I'll take the points. 

The Jets nearly knocked off the Patriots at home last week. They did so outgaining New England behind Josh McCown throwing for over 300 yards. New York beat the Dolphins at home 20-6 back in week three by holding them to just 225 yards of total offense. To me, we are slightly over-exaggerating how good the Jets are. Their only road win was by three at Cleveland. Things have normalized a bit for the Dolphins who have won their last two games including a victory in Atlanta. They've been able to use Jay Ajayi and the run game to minimize the impact of Jay Cutler. Miami's defense has played well especially against the run. New York is 5-9-4 in their last 18 road games against the spread. They've been a nice story, but I don't think Sunday goes their way.

Another week and no Andrew Luck for the Colts. He had a setback this week and will not be returning it feels for awhile still. Jacoby Brissett has been playing better, but he will struggle against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is the perfect picture of this 2017 NFL season. They crushed the Ravens overseas, but came home and lost to the Jets. After that, they won in Pittsburgh before falling at home to the Rams. Leonard Fournette has been fantastic and it's taking pressure off Blake Bortles who still isn't very good. The Colts defense was ravaged in Tennessee and now has one less day to prepare for the Jags. The team's home games were three point wins over Cleveland and San Fran to go with a three point loss to the Cardinals. To me, as long as this stays below three, the road team is the way to go.

The air surrounding the Steelers right now is not exactly very positive so naturally I think this is a good time to take them on Sunday. Last week, I spent time in this column pointing out how bad of a spot it was against the Jaguars. Now I think it's a good spot for them on the road where they've traditionally struggled. Pittsburgh's defense has played well for the most part this season outside of the effort against the Bears and Jags on the ground. No one has thrown for more then 210 yards against them. KC has the potentially questionable spot in this one with a road game against the Raiders coming up on Thursday night. The Chiefs offense is rolling right now, but the defense has shown some cracks as of late. KC has covered just seven of their last 18 home games. One of those failed covers was last year when they lost outright to these same Steelers. Give me the road team in this one.

The Buccaneers were one of the preseason darlings of the media and they've started 2-2 on the season. Jameis Winston is struggling to connect with DeSean Jackson which has hurt offensive production a bit. Thankfully they fixed the kicker issue after Nick Folk cost them the New England game last Thursday. The defense has been mighty leaky although they are getting some players back for this one. You can't get much lower on Arizona then you are now after their 34-7 loss in Philly. The running game has done next to nothing although Adrian Peterson comes over from New Orleans. Carson Palmer is getting battered behind a porous offensive line. The defense was also beaten up by the Philly air attack. You have to expect some improvement there as this team has way too much talent in the secondary to be that bad. Arizona won this game at home 40-7 last year. It won't be that bad, but I think they win again at home.

The Bills have been one of the best stories in football so far as they've already beaten the Broncos and Falcons this season. They are doing so with a mediocre offensive attack led by Tyrod Taylor and Shady McCoy. The defense has been fantastic despite the offseason moves. Cincinnati is coming off a road win at Cleveland and may have found an offensive spark. Joe Mixon is getting more work and AJ Green is getting more involved under the new OC. Cincy's defense has been fantastic this year with only one opponent throwing for even close to 300 yards. To me, we're giving a lot of respect to the Bills who are playing their third road contest over the last four weeks. I think the Bengals win this one by a touchdown or more.

I think Vegas continues to underrate the Broncos for some reason as I thought this line should have been a little higher. They were home underdogs to the Cowboys back in week two and won that one easily. Yes, Denver lost last week, but it was a tough situation and they'll bounce back nicely here. Oakland's offensive line was exposed by a very mediocre Washington front line last week and Denver's is a lot better. The Broncos secondary is better then the Skins as well so that could mean more trouble for Derek Carr. He had just 96 yards passing in the loss to the Redskins. Denver's offense has shown it can run it and pass it as well with Trevor Siemian under center. Last year, the Broncos won this game 24-6 at home. We could see a similar score in this one. Oakland's defense doesn't scare me and I'll continue to look to fade this team when I can. 

A pair of winless teams in the AFC Central play in Cleveland. The Browns were road favorites last time out, but fell short by three in Indianapolis. Still, DeShone Kizer played pretty well in that game and is starting to show some improvement. If Cleveland can cut down on their turnovers (8 in the last two games), then I think they'll play better. Defensively, they've held two teams under 100 yards rushing and all three opponents to under 300 yards passing. Cincinnati lost a tough one in overtime to Aaron Rodgers last time out. Their offense has been anemic for the most part which caused the firing of their previous offensive coordinator. Marvin Lewis also spent part of the week cracking jokes about Jake Elliott who has more FGs then he has wins. Cincy has not impressed me at all this year.

The Texans are coming off a tough loss at New England last time out and are starting a three game homestand against division rival Tennessee. Deshaun Watson is getting better and better as a signal caller and that makes the team's run game even more dangerous. Defensively, Houston has been stout for the most part outside of Tom Brady's big game last week. Tennessee is 2-1, having won two straight after losing to Oakland. Marcus Mariota just hasn't put it all together since his late flourish last year. Last year, the home team won each game in this series. The Titans have failed to cover in 18 of their last 26 in conference and 11 of their last 14 against teams with a losing record. 

We get some value on the home team now that they are without starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum is no slouch and he's coming off throwing for 369 yards in a win over Tampa Bay. The Vikings have a fantastic homefield advantage and a great defense to use that to their advantage. The Lions are a tough team who is 2-1 on the season so far and arguably should be 3-0. We'll see if there's any sort of hangover after the NFL's latest mess-up involving a Detroit game. The Lions still can't really run the ball despite trying to commit to it. Stafford has the advantage here, but I like the Vikings weapons a little bit more. Minnesota lost both games to these Lions last year so revenge is on their minds as well. Minnesota has covered in 11 of their last 14 dome games. I think they are the better team and the line doesn't seem right. 

The Redskins head home after a very good trip out west. They found a run game and some resiliency to win under some adversity. We still haven't seen the good Kirk Cousins yet and he may find that against a vulnerable Oakland secondary. The Raiders’ defense is still an issue, but they haven't faced anyone yet to take advantage of it. The Skins’ secondary with Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland will be a good matchup against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Marshawn Lynch could struggle against a Skins D that has done well against the run thus far. Oh yeah, Oakland has to play Denver in Week 4 and that game means just a bit more. Washington is 15-8 ATS the last three years as an underdog. I think the Redskins are a live dog in this one.

This is one of those hold your nose situational plays. The Steelers are not as good on the road as they are at home. If you look at the splits for Ben Roethlisberger and this offense, this team just isn't as strong away from Pittsburgh. The Steelers beat the Browns in Cleveland in Week 1, eking out a 21-18 victory. Looming is another divisional clash with the archrival Ravens, so focus could be an issue. Chicago is 0-2 with one good game and one bad one. The Bears hung tough with the Falcons at home before getting blasted by the Buccaneers on the road. The defense has put up some respectable numbers as Vic Fangio continues to do good work. Chicago has covered in five of six and 19 of its last 28 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Three of Pittsburgh's last four games before Baltimore have been decided by one score. As long as this stays at seven or above, I'm taking Chicago.

I think the Giants are in a prime spot to keep things close as Odell Beckham and Janoris Jenkins look to be healthy. The Eagles secondary is terribly banged up and that's a group that's already pretty bad as it is. Yes, there's some worry about the offensive line holding up against the Philly pass rush, but in the past they've given Eli quick throws to make. Philly has dominated this series as of late. I don't know how their offense does against a Giants defense that could play better. To me, this is an overreaction to records. The Eagles have failed to cover in 15 of their last 25 games in conference. I think New York could win this outright. 

Another overreaction after one week is that Dallas can suddenly play defense. This couldn't be farther from the truth considering the Giants offense is horrendous without Odell Beckham. Eli Manning was constantly on the run because his offensive line couldn't block either. Yes, the Cowboys offense did it's part, but it's very hard to throw on Denver. Cole Beasley and Dez Bryant won't find as many openings as they did in week one. Denver's run game worked and Trevor Siemian did enough to win on Monday night. I'm guessing some of the love for the road team is based off the short week for the Broncos. Denver has been a home underdog of 3 points or less 19 times since 1992 and have won 12 of those outright. The Cowboys have covered just eight of their last 18 games as a favorite. I'll bite on the potential trap.

Here's one of those games where the overreactions may take place. You've got a Rams team that demolished the Colts who are barely pro level with Scott Tolzien at quarterback. The defense played fantastic and they certainly will be a factor against Washington who struggled with the Eagles front seven. There's also the giant storyline of Sean McVay going up against his former team and who knows more about the other's tendencies. Kirk Cousins didn't do very well against the blitz so you have to think that Wade Phillips will be bringing the heat. Terrelle Pryor will have to improve especially since Josh Doctson is nowhere near ready. The Skins defense wasn't that bad against Philly either and I don't know if they'll be threatened that much by Jared Goff and Todd Gurley. Washington is 14-8 against the spread in their last 22 games as an underdog. I think this one is a Skins win.

Two teams that want to forget their week one take on each other on Thursday night. Houston lost at home 29-7 to Jacksonville in a game that saw a quarterback change and a lot of sacks. Deshaun Watson is going to get his first start in this one and I feel like it's the right decision behind a bad offensive line. Watson gives the offense a boost with Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins still being threats. The Texans defense is pretty good although they struggled against Jacksonville. Cincinnati got shut out by the Ravens last week 20-0 and Andy Dalton looked terrible. The Bengals defense also was beaten up on the ground. Houston has won the last two matchups winning in Cincy 10-6 in 2015 and 12-10 in Houston last season. The low total means it's going to be a close game and field position will be key. I believe the Texans defense is better and they are a juicy proposition especially if it gets to seven points. 

Yes, I know the Jets are going to be the worst team in football, but this is a little much for a Bills team that ain't exactly that good either. Buffalo has the only known commodity on both sides in LeSean McCoy so they'll probably ride him, but Tyrod Taylor's #1 weapon may be Zay Jones, a rookie especially if Jordan Matthews isn't ready. The Jets "strength" is in their secondary with some young safeties and decent cornerbacks. Buffalo is changing up their defense a lot and is rebuilding their back end so it's not like they are going to be at that much of an advantage. Like it or not, Josh McCown is a veteran quarterback who has some decent weapons and Bilal Powell at running back. I may look very stupid for doing this when New York loses by double digits, but it's not like the Bills are that good either. 

As long as the number stays at a touchdown or above, I think the Lions are worth a look here. Dallas is winning games, but they have failed to cover in four straight games. The run game drains the clock which makes fewer possessions for the opponent. Detroit's defense has held six straight opponents to less then 20 points and it's because they slow down the run and have clamped down on the pass. This is a group that went to New Orleans and held the Saints to just 13 points. Detroit's offense should find a little bit of success as I'm just not convinced by the Cowboys defense.

This matchup seemed a lot better before the season began. Houston is playing for a divisional title with Tom Savage under center. The Texans continue to win though behind a really solid defense that is allowing only 306.5 yards per game. Houston has held four straight opponents to 21 points or less. The change at quarterback seemed to spark the team at home in their victory over the Jaguars. Cincy had their season shut down at home against the Steelers last week so who knows what the motivation level is. Tyler Eifert, Jeremy Hill and AJ Green are all banged up so who knows what their effectiveness will be. I'll take a motivated home team in this one.

The Redskins return home from three straight on the road to host the Panthers. There's a lot that is not right with Carolina as their defense just isn't the same and Cam Newton isn't getting much time to throw. The team is coming off a home win against the Chargers in which they got the run game going a bit and forced five turnovers. For the most part they've been stout against the run. The problem has come against the pass which the Redskins will burn you on. Washington has lost two of their last three and arguably could have lost to the Eagles if not for a miraculous play by Ryan Kerrigan. Their defense is awful and has allowed 24 points or more in four of their last six games. Last year, Carolina burned the Skins to the tune of 44-16 so that could be a factor. Washington has covered just 13 of their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I'm playing a hunch here and taking the road team plus the touchdown. 

Oakland has won five straight entering Sunday afternoon's contest with the Bills. Despite that recent success Vegas is not being kind by making the Raiders just a three-point home favorite in this one. Oakland survived last week against the Panthers and is now looking at a huge road game at Kansas City just four days later. Buffalo has won two straight and is doing so despite offensive weapons going down left and right. Their defense is playing well right now after a rough patch against New England and Seattle. The Bills have a secondary that can give Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree fits. Since 1992, Oakland has covered just 12 of its last 39 games as a home favorite of three points or fewer. At first, I thought I wanted to take the Raiders, but the Bills are playing well and I think Vegas wants money on the home team. 

I think we are getting a good price with Denver in this one. Kansas City limps in with Dee Ford expected to be out and Marcus Peters will be less then 100% if he plays. The Kansas City defense is solid, but I think Denver can take advantage of some things. They are coming off the bye week and are looking at two road games coming up so they'll need to take care of business in this one. Their defense continues to be stellar especially against the pass. If they crowd the box on Spencer Ware, I don't know how KC will move the ball. They have lost 17 of their last 24 in Denver although they did pick up a win there last year. I just think Denver's defense can win this game and get Trevor Siemian good enough field position. 

We know all the issues with the Vikings, but are the Cardinals okay themselves? Arizona struggled offensively against San Francisco and needed a late field goal to beat the lowly Niners at home 23-20 last Sunday. The offense had six turnovers and is dealing with a banged up offensive line. Minnesota has now lost four straight, but they showed some fight in the 26-20 loss at Washington. This pick is contingent on Xavier Rhodes playing because he's the best piece of that secondary. Outside of the overtime loss to Detroit, most of this stretch came on the road. Minnesota is 16-6 ATS the last three years as an underdog and 29-13 ATS overall over that same span. Arizona has covered just five of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record.

It's two traditional powers playing in this one and it's desperation time for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has lost three straight games as the offense has struggled since Ben Roethlisberger’s injury and the defense has not been able to get stops when it mattered. Roethlisberger gets another week to get healthy and shake off the rust and hopefully find ways to get Le’Veon Bell more involved. The Steelers rushed for just 36 yards in the 21-14 loss at Baltimore. Meanwhile, Dallas keeps rolling along behind Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. I'm still not ready to buy in on this defense despite the numbers. I know I've tried to get in front of the Dallas fade train and have failed several times. To me, anytime you can get a good team at home with a short number and potential desperation, you have to consider it. Pittsburgh has covered six of its last seven games at home as a favorite of three points or fewer. 

I'm hoping this isn't the Eagles fan in me, but I like this set up against the Falcons. Atlanta has won two straight and is playing its second straight road game. Matt Ryan is playing some of his best football right now, but the Falcons’ D has struggled against the pass. Carson Wentz has come down to earth after his hot start. The Eagles’ offense is very one-dimensional, but I still don't believe Atlanta will slow them down. The Falcons have allowed 93 points in their last three games against the Chargers, Packers and Buccaneers. Atlanta has covered all five of its road games this season but are just 11-10 ATS over the last three seasons. The Eagles have covered 11 of their last 19 home games including all three this season.

Things are going dreadfully wrong for Minnesota who has a quick turnaround after a road loss to Chicago. The Vikings have scored just 20 points the last two weeks, putting up four turnovers and allowing a boatload of sacks. The offense is just not stretching the field nor are they protecting the quarterback. There's no doubting their defense, but the more the offense struggles, the more they are on the field. Detroit has won three of their last four behind a solid offense and a timely defense. Matt Stafford is performing a lot better then people thought when he lost Calvin Johnson. The defense has had their issues, but who really is going to threaten them on Minnesota. If you look solely at the ATS numbers, you'd take the Vikings and run away. The problem is on a short week with some issues, I just can't.

The Browns continue to look for their first win of the season and while that probably won't come Sunday, they are in a good spot for a cover. The Cowboys are coming off an emotional home win over the Eagles and have a road game at the Steelers next week. In between, there's a road trip to lowly Cleveland. Dallas figures to be without Morris Claiborne and Barry Church hurting their already banged up defense. I'd really like to see Josh McCown at quarterback because he can take more advantage with Terrelle Pryor and now Corey Coleman out wide. The Browns defense will struggle to slow down Ezekiel Elliott, but I think they'll be able to keep up with the scoring. It's a bad spot for Dallas. 

The Falcons came home and lost a tough one to the Chargers last Sunday. In comes Green Bay, which had a pseudo bye week since the Packers played last Thursday. They have been very good against the run with some solid performances against the pass. Atlanta's run game is going to take a bit of a hit with Tevin Coleman (hamstring) out most likely. I'm just not a believer in Atlanta and think the Falcons’ defense will struggle against the Packers’ aerial attack. I know it hasn't been clicking, but I really think Green Bay’s win over the Bears was a solid sign that this team is coming out of its slump. Atlanta has covered in just three of its last 18 games as a favorite and seven of its last 18 home contests. Green Bay is 12-2 ATS the last three years after a division game. 

Tampa Bay is on a two game win streak as they host the Raiders on Sunday. The Bucs have played good defense holding the Panthers and 49ers to just 31 points. Jameis Winston is coming off a good game while Jacquizz Rodgers ran wild as well. Oakland is playing their fifth road game already this season and has been in Florida all week. The Raiders have a huge game next week at home against the Broncos and with a team that may not be used to this situation, that could be an issue. The run game has sputtered most of the season so I don't know if a road weary one dimensional team is going to succeed in this situation. If you looked solely at the ATS numbers, everything favors the road team. I'm going with Tampa Bay though against a Raiders defense that has been gashed to the tune of 430.4 yards per game allowed.

Based on record, we may seemingly have our first decent Monday Night game in awhile. The problem is that the Broncos come in on a two game losing streak and Houston's been pretty bad on the road. Still, Denver is coming off two losses in the span of four days to Atlanta and San Diego. Trevor Siemian is not doing enough to keep defenses honest which means CJ Anderson is not finding running lanes. Denver scored just 29 points combined during their losing streak. The defense has also struggled, by their standards, as teams have figured out that getting running backs involved in the passing game was a good way to go. Houston has won two of their last three and are coming off a solid win over the Colts. Lamar Miller finally got a touchdown and Brock Osweiler made some solid passes too. The Texans defense has struggled against the run, but they have not allowed more then 260 yards through the air. Denver has covered just one of their last 12 games coming off a division contest. As long as you can get the hook, I like the road team.

The Redskins have won four straight and are coming off their best performance of the season in a 27-20 win. Washington confused Carson Wentz and lived in the Eagles backfield. The offense was rolling after rushing for 230 yards. Doing that will help take the pressure off Kirk Cousins. The Lions have beaten the Eagles and Rams during this two game win streak. They are doing it with solid defense and just enough offense. Detroit is not running it with any success and that's how you beat the Skins. Neither team really has a trend that helps this pick. I just think Washington is the better squad.

I'm going to try and fade the Ravens once again this week. Baltimore is coming off a home loss to the Redskins and continue their trip thru the NFC East in New York against the Giants. Baltimore's offense will be undergoing changes after Marc Trestman was fired. The unit has been unimpressive running for just 99 yards per game. Luckily for the Ravens, their defense has been very good. The Giants, meanwhile, have been very frustrating as Eli struggles and the run game continues to fail. New York lost in Green Bay and now have fallen in three straight. I do believe Ben McAdoo is one of the worst hires of the new head coaches. Despite saying that, I think the more talented team wins out. 

The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season although the referees may have botched the big fumble by Ryan Mathews. Carson Wentz threw his first interception and is now heading into FedEx Field to play the Redskins. Everyone has been able to run on Washington this season although as of late the defense is tightening up. The Skins run game has struggled meaning Kirk Cousins has had to shoulder the load. The Eagles secondary is ripe for the picking and have been spared for the most part because of their fantastic front seven. DeSean Jackson has been dormant this season for the most part, but this seems like a good spot for him to break out. Washington has won and covered in five of their last seven games as a home underdog of three points or less. This might be the Eagles fan in me, but I don't get how they are favored. This is their second straight road game after the bye. They may win, but I'll take the home underdog.

In a game that probably won't make any ripples across the league, you've got the Jaguars and Bears. Jacksonville is coming off a bye week after their win over the Colts in Europe. I like this Jaguars attack with Chris Ivory healthy enough to complement TJ Yeldon and some solid WRs. The Bears defense is playing better, but their secondary should struggle in this one. Chicago's shown some fight with Brian Hoyer under center. The passing game is improving with him starting. Jacksonville's defense has faced Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco with every one of them throwing under 210 yards in those games. Chicago has covered in just six of their last 18 home games, winning just four of them outright.