Mike Clevinger is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA. Clevinger has a 3.05 ERA in 10 total appearances against Minnesota. He's pitched well at home this year and Minnesota started to fade a little bit down the stretch. Kyle Gibson is on the other side and he's 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA on the year. Last year Gibson pitched three times in Cleveland giving up 12 runs and 18 hits in almost 18 innings of work. I'm just not a Gibson guy and Cleveland is playing some good baseball right now. I think Cleveland has a good bullpen and I think they take game one of this series. 

Reynaldo Lopez is 4-7 with a 6.12 ERA. He has the worst ERA among qualifying pitchers although over his last four outings it's 4.63. Lopez did have two decent outings against the Tigers back in April holding them to two earned runs and nine hits in 12 innings while striking out 22. Detroit has scored 17 runs in their last eight games and just don't have a great offense. Matt Boyd has allowed 14 runs and 18 hits over his last 17 innings of work. The southpaw is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in seven starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox are hitting .276 over their last seven games and against left-handed starters as well. I like the home team's bullpen more then Detroit's as well. Give me the White Sox in this one.

The Mets are a trainwreck right now and lost another game out of their bullpen. This seems like a good time to continue to fade them. Max Fried has bounced back a little bit from his struggles and is coming off a winning effort in Wrigley in which he held the Cubs to two runs and two hits in six innings. He did walk five in that one, but struck out eight. Fried faced the Mets back on 6/19 giving up two runs and eight hits in six innings. Noah Syndergaard goes for the home team. He's 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA in 15 starts. Thor is coming off the injured list and could only go 5 innings if the team wants to ease him back. This Atlanta offense should tee off on the NY bullpen once again. Give me the road team in this one. 

Jerad Eickhoff is coming off a winning effort in San Diego in which he held them to three runs and four hits in six innings. Eickhoff has some ugly numbers, but he's feeling good about how he looks as of late. Arizona has won four straight, but they are coming off a series in Toronto against their horrible pitching. The Phillies bullpen has just three blown saves at home. Taylor Clarke is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in four starts. He has allowed 13 runs and 21 hits striking out 13 while walking only seven. The Phillies are averaging over five runs per game at home where they are 22-12. I think Philly has a slight edge in the pen. Give me the home team in this one. 

Nick Pivetta has made two good starts since coming from the minor leagues. Last time out he struck out nine and held the Dodgers to three hits in six innings. The outing before that he had one bad inning and bounced back to hold St. Louis to three runs and three hits in five innings. Pivetta was a decent pitcher last year and saw them twice. He held Cincy to seven runs and 11 hits in 13 innings with 19 strikeouts to just two walks. I've never really been a Tanner Roark guy. He doesn't go deep in games and just has mediocre stuff. Roark is 6-6 with a 3.47 ERA in 12 starts. The Phillies have the better lineup and maybe the slightest of edges in bullpen although not by much. I'll take the home team in this one.

I like this John Means who is going for Baltimore on Wednesday. The southpaw is 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in four home starts and is coming off a decent effort in Colorado where he held the Rockies to three runs and seven hits in five innings of work. Means probably needs to get more strikeouts with just 25 in 41 innings, but he's gotten around it from time to time. Detroit is 3-6 against left-handed starters and doesn't really have that impressive of an offense. Outside of Miguel Cabrera, there aren't a ton of threats. Ryan Carpenter is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts for the Tigers. He's had two awful outings at home against the Astros and Angels to go with a decent one against the Mets. Let's be completely honest and say that Baltimore's lineup doesn't have a ton of threats either. They are hitting around .246 against left-handed starters. I just think that the Orioles can put up an early lead and Means can hold down the Tigers. 

Minnesota has won six straight and 11 of their last 12 as they take on the Brewers. The offense has scored seven runs or more in five straight and nine of their last 11 contests. The offense is pounding pitchers to the tune of around .320 in their last eight contests. I'm not a huge Gio Gonzalez guy despite his hot start. The southpaw has allowed seven runs and 21 hits in five starts. He'll be opposed by Michael Pineda who is 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts. Pineda is not walking hitters with just two in his last three starts. He's had an issue keeping the ball in the ballpark allowing 14 HR. Milwaukee is 12-13 on the road where they are hitting .235. They got swept in their first interleague series this season. Minnesota's bullpen is stellar with five guys with less then a 2.00 ERA. I think the home team is definitely worth a look here. 

Brad Peacock has allowed just one run and eight hits over his last three starts striking out 24 while walking five. The righty has been very good as a starter this season. He's being opposed by David Price who is still working his way back from the IL. He held the Jays to two runs and three hits in five innings last time out. Price has allowed three runs or less in five straight outings although they have come against some of the league's weaker lineups. The Astros are not weak and it's rare for me to get a good price on this team at home. I understand how good the Sox lineup can be, but give me a good starter and a great lineup at home. 

Milwaukee is hosting the Reds on Tuesday. Gio Gonzalez has been a fantastic pickup giving up four runs and 18 hits in four starts with two of those resulting in victories for him. Gio has 15 strikeouts to five walks. Cincy is 4-7 against left-handed starters hitting .235 in those games. They are 10-16 on the road where they are hitting .205. Milwaukee's bullpen has 14 saves in 18 opportunities including eight of 10 at home. Sonny Gray has allowed 10 runs and 15 hits in his last three starts. Gray has not won yet in nine starts for the Reds. He'll face a Milwaukee lineup that is 16-8 at home where they are averaging over five runs per game. Cincy's bullpen has 11 losses and five blown saves. The Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games at home in this series. I think this one goes to Milwaukee. 

I can't believe there'd ever be a time when I could fade the Marlins at this good of a price especially on the road. Spencer Turnbull is 2-3 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts. The righty has 50 strikeouts to just 20 walks. He's allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts. Miami is 4-14 on the road hitting .217 while averaging just 2.2 runs per contest. They are hitting .210 against righties and .219 overall as their lineup is absolutely pathetic. Caleb Smith is putting up some good numbers for the Fish. He's got three of their 13 wins and is striking out a ton of batters. The Tigers have had some success offensive against left-handed starters hitting .273 while averaging over six runs per contest. The last couple of lefties that they've faced were Martin Perez, Wade Miley and Tyler Skaggs. Detroit's offense overall isn't great, but I have a lean to them at home. Miami's bullpen is pretty awful outside of a decent arm or two. Give me the cheap chance to fade the worst team in baseball here.

Two teams heading in different directions play in Arizona on Tuesday. The Snakes have lost three of four and six of their last nine games and send Luke Weaver to the mound. Weaver has allowed two runs and six hits over his last two outings and has been pretty good this year. He's 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in eight starts. Weaver beat the Pirates in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago holding them to one run and six hits in just over six innings. The Pirates have a winning road record but still aren't hitting well and aren't very reliable. Arizona has converted in 13 of their 17 save opportunities. Joe Musgrove has allowed 18 runs and 19 hits over his last three starts. He's starting to walk more guys and has struggled after a fast start. Musgrove took a no decision in a 12-4 loss by the Pirates at home last month. Arizona has a losing record at home, but has the better offense. They are averaging five runs per game. Pittsburgh's bullpen has six losses and seven blown saves. Give me the home team in this one. 

Yusei Kikuchi has figured things out his last two starts giving up two runs and six hits in just over 14 innings. The southpaw had 13 strikeouts and two walks over that span as well. He had a short outing in Oakland in March giving up two runs and four hits in just over four innings. The A's are 5-15 on the road and hitting .206 in their last seven contests. Seattle's bullpen scares me terribly, but maybe they won't have to cover a ton of innings. Michael Fiers is coming off a no-hitter which reduced his ERA to 5.48 on the season. Fiers is 0-2 with a 9.14 ERA in five road starts. Fiers lost to the Mariners overseas back in March giving up five runs and four hits in three innings. The Mariners are averaging over five runs per game, but aren't exactly in the best form. Oakland is tied for the most blown saves with nine. I really don't like a lot about Seattle, but I like fading people off no-hitters especially when they threw a ton of pitches. Give me the home team in this one. 

The Nats are fade material right now as they continue their road trip to LA against the Dodgers. Pat Corbin has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits in his last three starts and he's one of their better starters. The Dodgers are 15-4 at home where they are averaging over six runs per game and are hitting .282 as a team. Washington's bullpen is now 6-9 with a 6.41 ERA and five saves in 12 chances. No lead is safe with them if they actually get it. Rich Hill is making his third start. He's given up just four earned runs and 12 hits in 10 innings. The southpaw has allowed just two runs and four hits over his last three outings against the Nats. Washington is hitting .219 against left-handed starters and .210 in their last seven contests. The Nats are without Matt Adams, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman and Trea Turner right now. The Dodgers bullpen isn't the best either, but I think it's better then the Washington group. Give me the home team at a reasonable price.

Texas saw the end of their five game losing streak on Saturday when the offense blew out versus Mike Leake and Seattle. They had struggled to score over this losing skid and weren't getting good pitching either. One of those who got rocked was Lance Lynn who goes in this one. Lynn is 3-2 with a 6.51 ERA in five starts. He's given up 20 runs and 35 hits in just over 27 innings of work. Lynn is facing one of the better offenses in baseball right now and I think they can get to him and the mediocre bullpen behind him. We don't know too much about Erik Swanson other then he had one good outing and one bad one. At home he held the Indians to one run and two hits in six innings, but lost in San Diego when he allowed two homers in six innings. I'm not a huge believer in Texas' lineup so I think they can struggle in this one. Give me the home team to bounce back on Sunday. 

Colorado has won four of five and nine of their last 11 games entering Saturday's contest in Atlanta. Jon Gray has allowed two runs and nine hits in his last three starts against the Phillies, Padres and Giants. Gray pitches better away from Coors Field. The starter is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in five starts against the Braves. One of his worst came last year and he only allowed three runs and five hits over seven innings in that one. Atlanta has lost seven of their last 10 games and is sending Mike Foltynewicz to the mound for the first time this season. He was dealing with bone spurs during the spring and gets the call in this one. Folty had a rough rehab assignment giving up 12 runs and 17 hits in 17.2 innings of work. The righty walked nine over that span and is still trying to get his work in. I like the Rockies offense right now as they have been very hot as of late. Also, Atlanta's middle relievers are not that good. One of my systems is to fade a guy coming off the IL to make his first start so give me the Rockies.

Frankie Montas is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts. The righty has not lost yet at home in two starts with one of those wins coming over Houston last time out. He'll face a Rangers team that's not quite as strong on the road as they are in Arlington. Oakland's bullpen has some solid arms, but has to cut down on it's losses and blown saves. Lance Lynn is 2-1 with a 4.44 ERA in four starts. He's a little bit better on the road then he is in Arlington where the runs are flying. Oakland's lineup isn't the best, but I still like some of their hitters especially against a guy like Lynn. Texas also has a very mediocre bullpen. I like the A's at home in this matchup. 

Matt Strahm has been pretty bad as a starter for the Padres. He's failed to get past the fifth inning and is not pitching that efficiently. Strahm has a 1.657 WHIP in those three starts. The Reds are woefully underperforming this year, but there's some talent in this lineup. I'm expecting them to bust out at some point soon. Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 11 runs and 15 hits in three starts. The righty has had a bit of a issue with allowing homers. San Diego's lineup has a couple names in it, but they've struggled this year. Entering Thursday night, San Diego was hitting .220 in their last seven contests. Now, the Cincy bullpen has struggled this year so that's a worry, but I think they can build a solid lead. Give me the road team here. 

I'm not quite sure why Jason Vargas is still in the Mets rotation, but here we are. The southpaw has allowed six runs and 10 hits in just over five innings of work. Vargas has just two strikeouts to four walks and is on the thinnest of thin ice. He last saw the Cardinals in 2017 giving up six runs and eight hits in that start. St. Louis is hitting .303 in their last seven games while averaging nearly seven runs per contest. The Mets bullpen has an ugly ERA but has gotten some stuff done. I'm not a huge Adam Wainwright guy, but he's pitched well his last two starts. The righty has allowed seven runs and 12 hits in 16 innings. He's got 16 strikeouts to just six walks as well. Wainwright beat the Mets twice in 2017. They have lost four of their last five and are on the last leg of a three city trip. I think Vargas is as instafade as it gets. 

As I've said, I don't really have too many systems when it comes to betting baseball. Other then fading pitchers in their first start off the DL, I like to fade pitchers coming off their career high or a really high pitch start and that's what we are getting with Brad Keller. He's relatively young still and is coming off an outing where he tossed a career high 118 pitches. Keller beat the White Sox at home back on March 28th holding them to two hits and one walk in seven innings. He's won three straight against them which is concerning, but KC's bullpen is hideous. The group has seven losses and six blown saves already. Chicago's offense isn't great, but they are putting up over 4.5 runs per game. Lucas Giolito beat the Royals in KC back on March 31st holding them to two runs and three hits in just over six innings. Giolito's having control issues lately so that's a worry, but I really don't see what makes KC that tough. They are hitting around .213 on the road where they are 0-5 as a team. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things, but Giolito has not lost to the Royals in seven career starts with Chicago being 6-1 overall. I just think the home team has a lot of advantages outside of starting pitcher so I'll play them. 

Zack Greinke gets the call for the Diamondbacks as he makes his first home start of the season. Greinke got rocked in Los Angeles against the Dodgers in his first outing before beating the Padres in San Diego. In that one he had 10 strikeouts in six innings. Now he returns home to face the Rangers who are 5-5 with one of those wins coming on the road. I'm not necessarily a huge believer in the Texas lineup even though they've had some early success. Arizona's bullpen has had a rough start to the year with an ERA near eight so that's a worry, but I'm hoping the home team gets a big enough lead to cover that. Mike Minor has allowed six runs and 10 hits in just over 11 innings of work. The southpaw was shelled by the Cubs, but then did some good work against Houston. Minor went 6-4 with a 5.14 ERA in 13 road starts last year. Arizona is averaging over six runs per game this season and has performed better then people thought. Texas' bullpen is 4-1 with a 4.19 ERA this season. I think this group is nowhere near as good as that record. I think the home team should get the win in this one. 

Nick Pivetta had a rough start for the Phillies last time out. He gave up four runs and eight hits in just over four innings at home to the Braves. Pivetta is expected to take the next step and has pretty good stuff that he'll need against Minnesota. The Twins are putting up some gaudy offensive numbers, but I'm not a huge fan of their lineup. It certainly doesn't have the depth of their opponent that's for sure. Jake Odorizzi held the Indians to one run and one hit over six innings striking out 11 while walking two. He's traditionally not as strong on the road as he is at home. Philly is averaging nearly eight runs per game and should be able to take aim at Odorizzi and a Twins pen that's putting up good early numbers, but isn't that strong in reality. Philly is going to be favored a lot so I'll take advantage of a decent price for them on Friday night. 

Sonny Gray makes his first start for Cincinnati and I'm really high on the Reds so you'll see me on them often. Gray threw 10 innings against major league competition giving up one run and five hits while striking out 11 with no walks. Gray had a terrible year last year so they couldn't be any lower on him on right now. The Pirates lineup doesn't scare me a ton and the Reds get to have a fresh Raisel Iglesias after throwing a few pitches on Thursday vs. Pittsburgh. Cincy is going to use him more in high leverage times then just the ninth inning. Trevor Williams had a rocky start to his spring, but didn't exactly pitch that well. Williams finished last year in fantastic fashion and owns two wins over Cincy at home in 2018. Still, this is an upgraded lineup for the home team and I don't think the Pirates pen is that great either. Gray is going to surprise some people and I think we're getting a good price here with the home team.

For the second straight offseason, San Diego made a big splash in free agency adding Manny Machado to the mix. He'll join Eric Hosmer as the big additions to go along with Ian Kinsler and youngsters Fernando Tatis Jr and Manuel Margot. This is a youngish but improving lineup as they face Madison Bumgarner who is coming off getting shelled in his last spring outing. The ace will not be on any restrictions and hopes to become what he used to be in terms of stamina. Bumgarner only saw the Padres once last season back in June and has a 3.35 ERA in 31 starts against them. He'll be opposed by Eric Lauer who had a fantastic spring and has a very bright future. The southpaw has a 3.94 ERA in three career starts against San Fran who continues to field pretty close to the same lineup as last year outside of adding Gerardo Parra. I think there's some excitement surrounding San Diego and think their bullpen won't be that terrible. To me, the home team is worth a look here. 

Corey Kluber is starting for the Indians and many thought he'd be somewhere else after the team was reportedly shopping him. Cleveland did make some changes elsewhere and are dealing with injury issues already. Francisco Lindor suffered a setback, spraining his ankle in workouts while Jason Kipnis is dealing with a right calf strain as well. Corey Kluber has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts against the Twins. The Tribe's bullpen will not be as strong as it has been in the past and the team will rely on Carlos Santana and Hanley Ramirez early on. Minnesota added Nelson Cruz to the middle of their lineup along with Eddie Rosario. Jose Berrios has been hot and cold against the Tribe, but I think now is the time to jump on them. Once Cleveland gets fully healthy then they'll be better, but right now I think I'll lean to the home team. 

Marcus Stroman had a horrible 2018 campaign with the injuries and will be looking to bounce back this year. Stroman had a fantastic spring allowing just three runs and six hits in 12.1 innings of work, striking out 13 while walking just one. His first start comes against a stripped down Tigers lineup that features an aging Miguel Cabrera and a lot of youth including Mikie Mahtook, Grayson Greiner and Christin Stewart. Toronto's bullpen could be a bit of an adventure so that's a worry, but not at home against a lesser team early. Detroit is sending Jordan Zimmermann out who was better last year, but still doesn't exactly scare many people. Justin Smoak is a solid hitter in the middle with Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr among those expected to take the next step. I think the home team gets this one on Thursday. 

Fading Martin Perez off the DL. He wasn't good before he went on it and I don't think he suddenly learned how to pitch. 

Minnesota's offense is clicking right now and Jose Berrios is on the mound. He's 7-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 10 starts at home. Berrios is coming off a winning outing against the Royals and is facing the light hitting Rays whose lineup just doesn't scare me. He'll be opposed by Chris Archer who is coming off a short outing against the Tigers. Archer is still working his way back from coming off the disabled list. Minnesota's bullpen scares me but hopefully Berrios can go deep. I'll take the home team in this one. 

Junior Guerra has won three straight starts and has allowed one run or less in 10 of 17 starts this season. The righty got shelled at home by the Pirates just over two months ago, but I really don't like this Pittsburgh lineup for the most part. Guerra just has to go 5 or 6 innings so the likes of Hader, Knebel and Jeffress come into play. He'll be opposed by Nick Kingham who gave up four runs and six hits in just over five innings to the Brewers. Kingham is 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA in eight starts. Milwaukee's lineup has hit a bit of a lull, but they are still better plus the Pirates bullpen doesn't scare me. I think the road team is worth a look here. 

Wade Miley is making his third start of the season and his first since 5/8 on Thursday. Miley has allowed one run and four hits in his six plus innings of work. The Pirates have won three of their last four and are now 24-24 at home. Milwaukee's bullpen is very strong so that is a worry. Jameson Taillon has allowed just eight earned runs and 16 hits over his last three starts. The righty has pitched away against the Brewers this season holding them to four runs and 13 hits over 10 innings. The Brewers are hitting just .216 in divisional games this season. Their lineup is hot and cold and probably the better of the two in the matchup. I don't love Pittsburgh's bullpen but I don't think Miley will be that good coming off the DL. 

Brian Johnson is making his third start for Boston. Johnson has allowed two runs and nine hits in 10 innings so far this season. He'll face a Washington team that is hitting .214 against left-handed starters and don't have a great record at home. I'd like to have the better Sox arms available out of the pen in case they have to cover more innings. Tanner Roark posted a 6.08 ERA in six June appearances. I just don't like Roark at all and think he has very mediocre stuff. Boston is hitting around .286 over their last eight games. The Red Sox are putting up over five runs per game. The Nats bullpen can be beaten as well. I think there's some value with the road team

Junior Guerra is 1-3 with a 2.94 ERA in nine home starts. Guerra is striking out more batters as of late and continues to be an underrated pitcher despite being 4-5. He saw these Twins in Minnesota back on 5/20 giving up one run and four hits in just over four innings. The Twins lineup doesn't scare me very much and they have to start a pitcher in the lineup. Jake Odorizzi had a 5.96 ERA in five June starts. He's very mediocre as a starter especially against tougher lineups. Milwaukee's lineup is pretty strong and is averaging over 4 runs per game. The Twins bullpen has a ton of losses and blown saves. I think the home team is worth a look here.

Mike Foltynewicz is 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA in 15 starts. The righty has allowed just three runs and eight hits over his last 15 innings of work. Folty will face a lineup that is struggling right now to get much going. Atlanta's bullpen has just two road blown saves this season. John Gant has a 4.09 ERA in four starts this season. He's coming off a great outing against the Indians, but I don't think he's that good. Atlanta is 24-17 on the road where they are averaging over five runs per game. The team is 18-9 in day games and is hitting .263 in those contests. I think there's some good value with the road team in this one. 

I'm going to take a shot with Vince Velasquez today after the Nats pounded the Phillies on Friday. Velasquez has lights out stuff but has trouble harnessing it. He's allowed eight runs and eight hits over his last 19 innings of work against the Yankees, Cardinals and Rockies. He beat Washington at their place back on 5/5 holding them to one hit in five innings. If the team can get a lead, they'll use a good bullpen on Washington that has had their problems offensively for the most part this season. Jeremy Hellickson is coming off the disabled list so who knows how much he can give the Nats. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out and is pretty mediocre as a pitcher. The Phillies lineup can be hot and cold as well, but I'm not scared of the pitcher's they will be facing. Give me the home team in this one.

Pat Corbin is 6-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 16 starts. The southpaw has 129 strikeouts to just 27 walks. Corbin has already seen the Giants three times giving up four runs and 10 hits in just over 20 innings against them. San Francisco is 16-16 against left-handed starters hitting .236 against them. They are struggling offensively right now and Arizona's bullpen should be able to hold a late lead. Andrew Suarez is 1-2 with a 6.18 ERA in six road outings. He's pitched better as of late, but against the Marlins and Padres. Suarez lost to Arizona back on April 11th at home. Arizona is 23-16 at home averaging nearly 4.5 runs per contest there. The Giants bullpen picked up their 11th loss and 13th blown save on Thursday. I think they lose this one on Friday. 

The Cubs are back home after splitting four games in LA against the Dodgers. Mike Montgomery takes the mound. He's 2-1 with a 2.02 ERA in six starts for Chicago. He's facing a Minnesota team that is hitting .213 against left-handed starters and .229 on the road. The Twins are severely underperforming and don't have a good lineup. Chicago's bullpen has just one loss and three blown saves at home. Jose Berrios is on a good run right now for the road team. He's allowed just two runs over his last three starts although two of those came against light hitting Texas and Detroit. Chicago provides more of a challenge in this one. Minnesota's bullpen is horrible so the Cubs could get some late runs if they need them. I like the Cubs in this one. 

Clayton Richard has struggled with the Giants this season. He has allowed 11 runs and 15 hits in nine innings against the Giants with one of his worst outings coming in San Fran. The Giants are hitting over .270 at home and are averaging four runs against left-handed starters. Chris Stratton has allowed seven runs and 14 hits in his last three outings. He beat the Dodgers last time out giving up one unearned run and three hits in six innings. The Padres are hitting around .227 on the road. I think they are the worse team of the two and I don't believe in Richard's recent turnaround.

The Twins are 18-17 at home as they begin a series with the Rangers on Friday. Fernando Romero is 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in four home starts. He's pitched well there with good outings against the Angels and White Sox over his last three. Texas is hitting .228 on the road and .226 against right-handed starters. It does scare me that the Twins bullpen is pretty bad, but maybe they'll be able to hold a lead. Mike Minor is 1-2 with an 8.14 ERA in five road starts. Minor has a 5.35 ERA in 13 starts overall and is facing a Twins team that has won four of their last six. I think the home team is worth a look here. 

Jaime Garcia is 2-5 with a 6.02 ERA in 12 starts for Toronto. He does not scare me in the least as he puts a lot of runners on and doesn't strike out enough guys. Atlanta is 13-11 against left-handed starters hitting .261 against them while averaging over five runs per game. He'll be opposed by Mike Soroka who is coming back to Canada. He's allowed 10 runs and 22 hits in 21 innings of work. The righty struck out 19 while walking only five. Toronto is coming off a sweep of the Nationals, but they are still hitting .235 on the season and don't have too many great hitters. I like the Braves bullpen which has just six losses and two blown saves on the road. I think the road team is worth a look. 

The Phillies are scuffling big time right now and continue their series in Milwaukee on Saturday. Zach Eflin just faced the Brewers at home. Last time out he held them to two runs and three hits in six innings, striking out nine in the process. The Brewers are 21-12 at home and are averaging over five runs per game in their last eight contests. Philly's bullpen has an ERA near five on the road and has blown more saves then converted. Junior Guerra is 3-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts for Milwaukee. He has allowed just four runs over his last 18 innings. The Phillies lineup has a lot of poor hitters in it and the Brewers have one of the best bullpens in baseball. I think this is a cheap price for the better team at home. 

Mike Minor is 4-4 with a 5.65 ERA in 12 starts for Texas. He's allowed 12 runs and 19 hits over his last three starts and is not really fooling anyone. Colorado's bats broke out in a big way against the Rangers last night and should be able to once again. They are 23-16 on the road and have the lineup edge. Kyle Freeland is 6-6 with a 3.68 ERA in 13 starts. He's got good numbers away from home and is facing a really weak Rangers lineup. Texas is 8-15 against left-handed starters and 13-24 at home. The Rangers bullpen is pretty bad too. I think Colorado gets the win on Saturday. 

The White Sox have won three of five and six of their last 10. Their offense has been pretty ugly, but the pitching is carrying them a bit right now.  Reynaldo Lopez has held the Tigers to three runs and seven hits in 14 innings. Detroit has offensive issues without Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. Detroit is hitting around .230 in their last eight games. The Chicago bullpen isn't great but Lopez is going deeper in games so the better arms could come into play. Michael Fiers is hot right now, but he's still a pretty mediocre pitcher. He's 2-2 with a 4.79 ERA in five road starts. The Tigers can't hit and have a bad bullpen so I like the home team. 

Yohander Mendez makes his first start in the majors for the Rangers on Friday. Mendez went 0-6 with a 5.26 ERA in 10 starts in AAA giving up 35 runs and 59 hits in 51.1 innings. He has 40 strikeouts to just 23 walks and gave up 10 HR. While there right handed hitters were hitting .300 against him. Colorado's lineup is producing runs, but no victories. I think they go to town on Mendez and a mediocre bullpen. Chad Bettis has pitched alright for Colorado. Texas has lost six straight and is struggling to put up runs. Outside of Adrian Beltre, there's not much to scare me there. The Rockies bullpen is pretty bad, but I think they'll have a nice lead to protect against this bad team. I'll take the Rockies.

The Mets are in a horrible tailspin right now and I think the under continues to be the play in their games. New York has scored just 15 runs since May 31st. They have gone under in seven of their last eight games. Matt Koch is 4-3 with a 4.35 ERA in 10 starts with six of those going under the total. Arizona's bullpen has been pretty solid for the most part this season. Jason Vargas gets the call for New York and he's been terrible this season. He's got an ERA over 10 on the road and a 7.71 ERA overall. Arizona is 16-8 against left-handed pitching and have the better lineup.  I think until New York shows any sort of offensive presence, I'm going to continue to fade them.

Jose Urena is looking for his first win at home this season. He did win his first start last time out in St. Louis despite giving up four runs and 10 hits in five innings. Urena did pretty well against San Diego back on 5/30 holding them to one run and three hits in six innings. The Padres are hitting around .222 on the road and .226 in day games. They don't scare me very much. Fading Clayton Richard on the road has been a decent wager throughout his career. The southpaw has a 6.26 ERA in five road outings. He held the Marlins to two runs and four hits in seven innings at home back on 5/30. Miami's starting to hit a little better despite the fact that their lineup doesn't have a ton of talent. I'll take them at home though. 

Caleb Ferguson gets the call for Wednesday's game. He's 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 10 starts between AA and AAA. The southpaw has allowed 14 runs and 37 hits over 47 innings striking out 52 while walking just 17. Lefties and righties have struggled against him over his time in the minors. LA has scored 38 runs over their last four games and are starting to play like the team projected to win the division. Pittsburgh has scored just six runs over their last four games and the offense has gone bone dry. Trevor Williams is 5-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 12 starts for Pittsburgh. He started out hot, but allowed 5, 4, 4, 0 and 4 over his last five starts. LA's offense is hot right now. I think they are worth a look in this one. 

Anthony DeSclafani is making his first start since September of 2016 for the Reds on Tuesday. He made four rehab starts in AA and AAA giving up 11 runs and 20 hits over 19.1 innings. The righty had 22 strikeouts to just three walks. Colorado is hitting .318 over their last seven games and are 19-13 on the road. The lineup is improved with DJ LeMahieu atop it. Cincy's bullpen isn't terrible although they have a 4.62 ERA at home. Kyle Freeland is 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 starts for Colorado. He'll face a Reds team hitting .229 against left-handed starters. Cincy doesn't have a ton of threats in their lineup. The Rox bullpen is 6-3 with a 3.95 ERA on the road converting 15 of 19 save chances. I think the road team is worth a look in this one. 

Kyle Freeland is 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA in three home starts. The southpaw has allowed four runs and 15 hits over his last three outings. Freeland beat the Giants in San Fran just over 10 days ago holding them to one run and five hits in just over six innings. San Francisco's offense is really inconsistent and has stretches where they struggle. Jeff Samardzija is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA in seven starts. He's walking too many hitters and putting too many batters on base. The Shark got rocked last year in his last Coors Field start and gave up three runs and five hits at home against the Rockies. Colorado's offense is starting to heat up and has the talent to make his life miserable. I think this is a good price for the better offense and starter at home. 

The Nats have won four straight and six of their last seven. Jeremy Hellickson has allowed just two runs and 10 hits over his last 17 innings. He's done well against the Padres and Diamondbacks over that span. The Orioles have been dreadful this year offensively. They are hitting .218 against right-handed starters and don't have a ton of threats. The Washington bullpen got some rest on Monday and should have their better arms available. Dylan Bundy is 2-3 with a 4.83 ERA in six home starts. Washington is 18-8 on the road where they average over five runs per game. Baltimore's bullpen has been pretty bad as well. I think the road team is worth a look in this one. 

Chad Bettis is 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 10 starts for the Rockies. Much like the rest of the rotation, he has ugly numbers at home with a 6.89 ERA. He's 3-3 with a 4.24 ERA in eight career starts against San Fran. Already this season he took a no decision earlier this month in SF allowing three runs and five hits in six innings. The Giants are playing Sunday Night Baseball against the Cubs before this so they won't get into Colorado until later. I like to fade traveling teams in this situation. Andrew Suarez has allowed 15 runs and 22 hits over his last three starts. He's 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA on the road and has not started in Colorado in his career. The Rockies aren't putting up great numbers at home, but have a very good lineup. To me, I think this is a good price to back the home team at. 

Jakob Junis is 5-3 with a 3.52 ERA in 10 starts for KC. Junis has allowed four runs and 12 hits over his last two starts against the Cardinals and Yankees. Minnesota has lost five of their last eight and are hitting around .200 over that span. The lineup continues to struggle to put things together. Lance Lynn is 1-2 with an 8.13 ERA in five road starts. He's walking too many batters and is allowing too many hits as well. The Royals are starting to turn things around a little although they still aren't a good team. Minnesota's bullpen doesn't scare me much so I think that runs could be had in the later innings. Give me the home team in this one.

Sergio Romo gets the "start" for the Rays who will go to a bullpen affair once again. Romo had a short stay on Friday on the mound giving up one run and two hits in less then an inning. I'm stunned at the awful numbers that the Orioles offense is putting up. There are some decent threats with Machado, Jones and the like. One of these series' they are going to break out like they should. Kevin Gausman is 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 starts. The righty has 58 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 62 innings. He's 5-5 with a 3.25 ERA in 13 career outings against the Rays. Just two weeks ago he beat Tampa Bay at home despite allowing 11 hits in just over seven innings. Gausman's last two starts in Tampa he allowed one run and 11 hits in 13 innings. Tampa's lineup doesn't scare me very much at all. They are hitting around .240 in their last eight games. Hold your nose for this one but I think the Orioles are worth a look. 

Francisco Liriano is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA in nine starts. He has not lost in four outings at home. Liriano beat the White Sox the last time he faced them back in 2015. Chicago is 3-8 against left-handed starters hitting .233 in those games. Hector Santiago is 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA in four starts. He's walking too many hitters and allowing too many runs. Santiago is 3-6 with a 3.80 ERA in 12 career starts against the Tigers. Detroit is hitting .288 against left-handed starters. The lineup is 14-11 in day games averaging nearly five runs per game. Chicago's bullpen is not very good and has a save conversion percentage around 50%. I think the White Sox fall in this one. 

Zach Eflin has allowed five runs and 10 hits in just over 17 innings so far this season. He's picked up 17 strikeouts to just six walks. Toronto is hitting .228 on the road and has a poor lineup as a whole. They are hitting around .230 in their last eight games. Philly's bullpen is improving with just two losses and two blown saves as a group. Sam Gaviglio gets the call for the Jays. He's making his second start after keeping Oakland off the scoreboard for just over five innings. The Phillies are 18-7 at home where they are scoring over five runs per game. They have not lost in four interleague games either. Toronto's bullpen doesn't scare me much despite the fact the group hasn't lost on the road. I think this is a good price for the home team. 

Homer Bailey is 1-6 with a 6.11 ERA in 10 starts for the Reds. He has allowed 15 runs and 28 hits over his last three starts and is 0-5 with a 7.10 ERA at home. The Pirates are averaging just under five runs per game and have a mediocre lineup, but everyone is hitting the Reds starter. Bailey lost to the Pirates at their place back on April 5th giving up five runs and seven hits in just over four innings. He'll be opposed by Chad Kuhl who picked up a no decision against the Reds on 4/7. He is 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA in nine starts. Kuhl has strikeout stuff and the backing of the better bullpen. Cincy is hitting around .220 at home and around .200 in divisional games. This is just not a good Reds team. I'll fade Homer Bailey whenever I can. 

Tyler Chatwood is 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA in eight starts. He's putting a lot of runners on base allowing 30 hits and 34 walks in 43 innings. Chatwood did beat the Indians in Cleveland back on April 24th, but he did so with four hits and five walks in six innings. Cleveland is hitting .258 in their last seven games and are better then their record. Trevor Bauer is 3-3 with a 2.59 ERA in nine starts. He's allowed just seven earned runs in four road starts and also pitched well against the Cubs earlier this season. Bauer held them to one run and four hits in just over six innings. Cleveland's bullpen has some ugly numbers but the unit as a whole is still better then it seems. I think the price is good for them to win. 

Reynaldo Lopez is the only starter in Chicago's rotation with an ERA less then five. At home he's posted a 2.42 ERA although the walk total is a little high. The righty is facing a terrible Texas lineup hitting .207 in their last seven games and .230 overall. He'll be opposed by Mike Minor who has allowed 14 runs and 22 hits in his last three starts. Minor's ERA is 9.42 away from Arlington which is not supposed to be. The White Sox are averaging 4.5 runs per game against lefties and have actually put up some decent numbers in this series. I think they can get the win on Sunday. 

Nick Kingham makes his third start for the Pirates. He's allowed four runs and seven hits in his two previous outings. Even better is the one walk over that span to go along with 16 strikeouts. Clayton Richard is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA. His ERA rises to 8.36 on the road where traditionally he's been terrible. Pittsburgh is 6-3 vs. left-handed starters hitting .286 in those games. Their offense and bullpen has the edge in this one. To me, it seems too easy to take the home team but I will do so. 

Chris Stratton has fallen off a cliff after a good start. The righty has a 7.00 ERA in four starts at home and has allowed 12 runs and 20 hits in his last three starts. He'll face a Rockies offense that is underperforming, but has a ton of talent. The Giants bullpen can be shaky with six losses and five blown saves. Jon Gray has improved and is a pretty good pitcher on the road. He's 2-2 with a 3.42 ERA in four starts away from Coors Field. The righty has a 2.35 ERA in three career starts against the Giants all on the road. San Francisco's offense is very inconsistent so I don't mind betting against them at home. The Rockies bullpen is one of the team's strengths especially with Shaw and Davis in the back end. Ottovino has been very good too. I think the Rockies can get the win in this one.

The Rockies won in extra innings on Thursday and I think they win again on Friday. Kyle Freeland is in good form having allowed five runs and 14 hits over his last three outings. The southpaw is facing a Giants team that is hitting .238 against left-handed starters and have lost eight of their last 11 overall. Colorado's bullpen has been fantastic on the road with just one loss and two blown saves. Derek Holland is 1-1 with a 5.65 ERA in three home starts. I don't think he's that good of a pitcher and Colorado should be able to hit him up. The Rockies are a pretty good road team despite some ugly batting numbers. I think they get the win here too.

I really think there's good value here with the road team. Chad Bettis has a 1.35 ERA in five road starts this season and the Giants are inconsistent at best offensively. San Fran is hitting .237 in divisional games. The Rockies bullpen has one loss and two blown saves on the road. Jeff Samardzja has been terrible as of late. He's not striking guys out or going deep in games. The Giants bullpen can be had as well. Colorado's offense isn't in the greatest form right now, but they have the talent to bust out. I think Colorado is worth a look here.

The Twins host the Mariners for a makeup game on Monday. Minnesota sends Jake Odorizzi to the mound. He has not lost either of his home starts this season and is cutting down on the walks which had been a problem at one point this season. Seattle's got a bit of a tough travel situation and is coming off a weekend where they played a doubleheader in Detroit. They then head home after this to begin a series against the Rangers on Tuesday so who knows if we see a full lineup. Color me unimpressed with Wade LeBlanc who makes the start and has thrown a grand total of nine innings his last two starts. The Twins are hot right now and have won seven of their last nine games. The offense has been in great form and should be able to get to this mediocre starter. I just think they are the better team despite the record and get the win on Monday. 

The Giants were swept by the Phillies last time out as the offense has dried up. The team is hitting .236 in night games and put up just eight runs against Philly. Now they head to Pittsburgh to face Jameson Taillon who bounced back last time out after a couple of rough outings. Taillon has a 4.42 ERA, but I think he's a better pitcher then that. He'll be opposed by Andrew Suarez who has pitched well for the Giants so far. Pittsburgh is hitting .295 in five games against left-handed starters and are 10-5 at home this season. The Giants bullpen is 5.14 ERA on the road. I think the price is right for the better offense and better pitcher.

The Diamondbacks lost on Wednesday night to the Dodgers 2-1 in a game that saw the Dodgers use the majority of their pen after Hyun-Jin Ryu got hurt. Alex Wood takes the mound and he's 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA in six starts. The southpaw has not had the same velocity he's had last year and that's hurting him a bit. Arizona is hitting .264 in their last seven games and are 11-3 against left-handed starters. Wood lost to the Snakes and Pat Corbin back on April 4th allowing three runs and six hits in six innings. Corbin got the win in that one holding LA to one hit and one walk while striking out 12 in just over seven innings. The Dodgers are hitting .211 against left-handed starters and are not in good form right now. The home team has the better bullpen as Arizona's unit has a 1.97 ERA. I think the home team gets the win.

The Indians begin a series with the Mariners on Thursday. Mike Clevinger is 2-0 with a 1.75 ERA in four starts for the Tribe. He's coming off a fantastic effort in Baltimore holding the Orioles to two hits and two walks over nine innings. Seattle is a mediocre lineup that's putting up some good numbers right now. James Paxton struggled last time out and has already lost to the Indians at home. He gave up six runs and six hits in just over four innings to them back on March 31st. Paxton is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland in his career with all three in Seattle. The Indians lineup is putting up terrible numbers, but they are starting to turn it around a bit. The bullpen edge goes to the home team even though Seattle's isn't that bad either.

Matt Koch makes his first start of the 2018 season. He threw 2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen a few days ago. Koch faced San Diego two years ago and held them to one run and five hits in six innings. The Padres are hitting .211 in their last seven games and .225 all season. Their lineup doesn't scare me. The hope is Koch can go deep and the bullpen can finish things off. The group has had their struggles though. Tyson Ross is coming off a winning effort against the Giants. Ross has not seen the DBacks since 2015. Their lineup is one of the best in the National League. The starter is backed by a bullpen that is 1-6 on the season. I like the home team to win.

I think we are getting a good price on the Diamondbacks in this one. Robbie Ray has won two of his three starts despite sporting a 5.74 ERA. He's striking guys out with 23 of them in just over 15 innings. Ray struggled in San Francisco allowing three runs and five hits in just over four innings last time out. Overall he's 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in nine career starts against San Francisco. The Giants are hitting .231 against left-handed starters and are 4-6 in those games. Arizona's bullpen has not blown a save yet this year. Chris Stratton has pitched well, but I'm not convinced. He's allowed six runs and 10 hits in three starts. Stratton has 11 K's and 7 walks in those games. Last year he lost in Arizona despite pitching well. I think that the Snakes have a solid lineup and should be able to get to the mediocre starter. The Giants bullpen has an ERA near five on the road. I think the home team is worth a look. 

Kendall Graveman is not a very good pitcher. He's allowed 14 runs and 20 hits in just over 13 innings of work. The righty has just five strikeouts and five walks over that span so he's not missing too many bats. Graveman is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA against the Mariners in his short career. Seattle's lineup is not in too bad of a form especially as of late considering they are putting some offense together. Marco Gonzales makes his first home start of the season after one good and one bad road outings. The southpaw has six strikeouts and one walk in just over eight innings of work. Oakland's lineup really doesn't faze me too much. They are 1-4 against lefties and Seattle's bullpen probably has the edge. I like the home team in this one. 

Marcus Stroman is stretched out and is over his injuries that he suffered in the spring. He allowed four runs and three hits in five innings to the Yankees picking up eight strikeouts in the process. The righty got shelled in Arlington last year, but he's facing a worse lineup this season. Texas is 3-6 on the season and part of it is bad offense coupled with poor pitching. He'll be opposed by Mike Minor who I just don't like. He lost to the Astros in his first start giving up two runs and three hits in just over four innings. Toronto's offense is no great shakes either, but I think they are the better group. The Rangers bullpen just doesn't scare me and you know they'll be involved. I think the Jays are the better team.

I think we're getting a good price here on the Diamondbacks who are coming off a 5-1 homestand against the Rockies and Dodgers. The offense is playing well right now and the team's getting fantastic pitching. Robbie Ray didn't pitch well but got the win in his first start. The southpaw has only allowed one earned run in his last two starts in St. Louis. The Cardinals lineup doesn't scare me as much as it has in the past. Adam Wainwright is coming off the disabled list to make this start. The veteran only threw 10.2 innings in the Spring so who knows how long he can go. That means a mediocre bullpen is going to have to shoulder a lot of the load. Arizona's offense should be able to tee off on the veteran who also had a little bit of a control problem. I think the road team is a live one here.

The Pirates are 4-0 so far this season after sweeping the Tigers and taking game one against the Twins. Ivan Nova is making his second start of the season. He gave up two runs and six hits in five innings at Detroit. Minnesota's offense has had some success this season and are averaging nearly five runs per game. Jake Odorizzi was fantastic against the Orioles last time out. He held them to two hits and two walks over six innings while striking out seven. Pittsburgh's offense is putting up good numbers, but i'm not a believer. Neither bullpen is all that good, but I think the Twins have the better starter and the better lineup. Give me the road team in this one. 

Kyle Freeland makes his 2018 debut as the Rockies continue their series in San Diego. The southpaw pitched well in his last start there last season allowing one run and three hits in just over six innings. Freeland didn't pitch that terribly in the spring as he got better towards the end. San Diego's lineup continues to scuffle early on and they didn't hit well against their lone left-handed starter opponent. Tyson Ross is back with the Padres after going elsewhere and it remains to be seen how good he is. Colorado's lineup has the massive edge in this one and San Diego's bullpen is full of question marks. I think the road team can get the win in this one.

Cole Hamels lost his Opening Day start to the Astros at home giving up three runs and five hits in just over five innings. The southpaw allowed two homers and walked four in that span as well. He lost both starts to the A's last season giving up nine runs and 14 hits in just over seven innings. I just don't think he's as effective and that he's going downhill in his career. Current Oakland hitters have 24 hits in 70 at-bats against him. The A's lineup isn't that great, but I think they can scratch some runs against Hamels and a very mediocre Texas bullpen. Kendall Graveman allowed five runs and seven hits in five innings to the Angels. He beat the Rangers at home in his last two starts against them last season. The Rangers lineup doesn't really scare me that much outside of a few select threats. I think Oakland has the edge in the bullpen and think they take this one on Tuesday.

Marcus Stroman will go most likely 85 pitches or so after being hurt in the spring and throwing only 28 last time out. He pitched pretty well in that one and we know that he's capable of very good stuff. Brett Gardner (9-34) and Aaron Judge (6-12) have had their success against the ace. I don't trust the Jays bullpen in the least so I think a later inning edge goes to the road team. Sonny Gray had a good spring and is trying to get back to the ace he was in Oakland. He went 1-2 against Toronto on the road last year with both the A's and Yanks. Gray has had a lot of success against Kendrys Morales (2-20), Kevin Pillar (3-17) and Justin Smoak (4-25, 10 K's). There won't be a lot of times where we can take the Yankees this season, but this one seems like a good spot to do so. 

Lucas Giolito was a frequent target of mine last year as he continues to pitch well in the majors. He finished the Cactus League with a 2.04 ERA striking out 17 and walking four over 17 innings. Giolito pitched great against a better KC team last year holding them to two runs and nine hits over 13 innings and change. The Royals scored only seven runs in game one and it wasn't enough. Chicago put up 14 in that one and the offense is in good form. Ian Kennedy has had an up and down spring. Kennedy is 2-3 with a 5.04 ERA in nine starts against the White Sox. Last year he allowed 14 runs and 20 hits over his last three starts against the Sox. Jose Abreu (9-19), Tim Anderson (5-14), Matt Davidson (3-8) and Avisail Garcia (4-15) all hit the vet hard. I think it's going to be a long season for the Royals. They go down on Saturday.

This is an important year for the Orioles who have several players who could walk at the end of the season including Adam Jones and Manny Machado. There's no doubting this offense can hit it a little bit and averaged nearly five runs per game at home in 2017. Jake Odorizzi has had their number over his last three starts against them holding the O's to four runs and 10 hits over 15 innings with 16 strikeouts to just five walks. Minnesota's bullpen is back-ended by Fernando Rodney and getting to him could be a chore. Dylan Bundy lost both his starts to the Twins last season, but he pitched better at home. It seemed like he lost some steam towards the end of the year and that's why his numbers took a dive. Logan Morrison is the biggest addition to Minnesota's lineup that has it's usual weapons in Dozier, Sano and Mauer. Baltimore's bullpen is without Zach Britton, but there's some talent in the middle relief in the form of Brach and Givens. I'll take the chance with the home team in this one.

Robbie Ray gets his second straight crack at the Dodgers. He's 6-1 with a 1.49 ERA in 11 road starts this season. Last time out he held LA to one run and four hits in just over six innings. The southpaw has a 2.97 ERA and a WHIP of 1.211 in 12 starts against LA. He held them to one run and five hits in six innings back in July. The Dodgers are struggling right now and are coming off a series loss to the Padres. They entered Sunday hitting just .219 over their last seven games. Rich Hill was battered by Arizona giving up six runs and eight hits in just over three innings. He has pitched better at home, but this is a hot DBacks team coming off a road sweep of the Rockies. I'll back the better pitcher and the better team on the road right now. 

I like fading the teams on Sunday Night baseball especially when they have to play early the next day. Dylan Bundy has been fantastic for the Orioles over his last three starts giving up just six runs and 15 hits over 21 innings. Bundy has split his last two starts against Jordan Montgomery allowing five runs and 12 hits over 13 innings. New York's game will end late on Sunday night and now they have a quick turnaround so maybe a starter or two sits for this one. Jordan Montgmery has not been good giving up seven runs and 10 hits over his last two outings. This is a Baltimore lineup that is hot right now and is averaging around five runs per game at home. To me, this one is a situational play. 

Gio Gonzalez continues to be underpriced despite being 13-5 on the season. He has allowed just two earned runs and 13 hits over his last three starts, all wins. The southpaw held the Brewers to two runs and five hits in seven innings at home back in July. Milwaukee is hitting around .195 in their last eight games and don't have a ton of threats. Washington's bullpen is so much better now and rested with Kintzler, Doolittle and maybe Madson. Zach Davies has a 5.97 ERA in 13 home starts. He'll face a Nats lineup that is almost completely healthy now that Werth and Turner have returned. Milwaukee's bullpen has 30 losses and 19 blown saves on the season. I'll take Gonzalez who is underpriced. 

Yes, we are getting Boston off being swept at home by the Orioles, but it's not like Toronto is in the best form. Drew Pomeranz is pitching well for Boston having allowed three runs and 13 hits in his last three starts The southpaw is 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 12 road starts. One of those road wins came in Toronto last month when he held the Jays to one run and five hits in six innings. He also beat them at home just 17 days later. Toronto is hitting just .232 against left-handed starters whom they are 11-19 against. Marcus Stroman has had a rough history with the Red Sox. He's given up nine runs and 16 hits in just over 10 innings of work against them in 2017. The lineup is cold, but capable of so much more. Both bullpens are mediocre, but I give the edge to Boston if they get a late lead. I'll take the Sox. 

Luis Castillo gets his first look at the Pirates. The rookie has allowed just five runs and 12 hits over his last three starts and is trying to cut down on the walks. The Pirates are hitting .230 in their last seven games and are 26-37 on the road. Of concern is Raisel Iglesias has thrown three straight scoreless outings so he may not be available. Gerrit Cole is 0-6 with a 5.14 ERA in nine career starts against the Reds. Pittsburgh has never won a game he started against them. Cincy is hitting .277 over their last seven games and have the pieces offensively to be a pest to Cole and their Buccos mediocre bullpen. I'll back the home team in this one.

Parker Bridwell is 7-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 12 starts for the Angels. He's given up just four earned runs over his last 18 innings of work. The righty keeps the walks down and is getting a Houston lineup most likely without Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Houston is hitting around .236 in their last seven games and are coming off a home series loss to the Nationals. Collin McHugh has not won any of his four road starts. The Angels are hitting .251 at home and are 34-29 there. The Astros bullpen has 18 losses and 15 blown saves. I think the home team in this one strikes first on Friday.

Gio Gonzalez continues to be underpriced despite results this season. He's won three straight starts and has allowed one run and 10 hits over that span. The southpaw is 11-5 with a 2.49 ERA in 24 outings. The Padres are 13-19 against left-handed starters hitting .222 in those games. With a lead, the back end of the bullpen should be able to keep it in place. Dinelson Lamet is 7-4 with a 4.78 ERA in 14 outings. He's in great form, but upon closer inspection, he's done it against the Phillies, Reds and Pirates. The Nats represent a whole new challenge. They have the better lineup and the better bullpen. It shows on Sunday. 

Chase Anderson makes his first start in just under two months for the Brewers on the road on Sunday. We'll see how long he goes as he only went 7.2 innings in two minor league starts during rehab. Colorado is 29-16 in day games hitting .288 in that situation. The Rockies are putting up over six runs per game at home and are hitting around .300. Milwaukee's bullpen has 29 losses and 18 blown saves on the season. Kyle Freeland has a 3.31 ERA in 12 home starts. He's actually gone under in 11 of them. Freeland has never faced Milwaukee who is hitting .242 in day games. Colorado's bullpen scares me a bit, but I have faith in their lineup to win a slugfest. I like fading guys coming off the DL. 

It's hard to back the Rays right now, but I think this is a good situation to do so on Friday. Former pitcher Erasmo Ramirez is on the mound for Seattle on the road and who would know him better then his old squad. Ramirez is 3-3 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts this season. The righty has been alright as of late although he's not going deep in ballgames which is not good considering how bad Seattle's bullpen is. The offensive numbers are ugly for Tampa Bay but there's no denying that the talent is there. Austin Pruitt has been very good since becoming a starter especially at home where he's allowed four runs and 11 hits in 12 innings. Pruitt has good strikeout ability and is able to keep the walks down. Seattle's offense doesn't concern me that much outside of Cruz and Cano. The Rays bullpen is alright, but I'll lean to them at home. I think Tampa Bay gets the win on Friday. 

The Nats head west to begin a four game set with the Padres. Edwin Jackson isn't a sexy starter, but he is 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA in five outings for Washington. He has not walked anyone in two outings away from DC. San Diego swept the Phillies, but this is a whole new team in the Nats. Their bullpen is a whole lot better after the deadline and should be able to lock down a lead. Jhoulys Chacin has a 4.13 ERA on the season but has been pretty good at home. He gave up three runs and eight hits to the Nats in DC back in May. Washington is 36-22 on the road averaging over five runs per game there. San Diego's bullpen isn't that good so I'll take the better team with a good price on the road.

Gio Gonzalez is 10-5 with a 2.59 ERA in 23 starts this season. The southpaw has just a 1.95 ERA in 11 starts at home. He lost to the Angels in Anaheim back in July allowing four runs and five hits in just over five innings. The Angels are 28-32 on the road and are hitting .235 in interleague play. Washington's bullpen is a lot better since getting Kintzler, Madson and Doolittle. Tyler Skaggs is 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA in seven starts. He'll face a Nats team without Bryce Harper. They are still hitting .269 against left-handed starters and .289 at home. The Angels bullpen doesn't scare me that much so I think Washington can come back in late innings. I think I'll back the Nats whenever I get a reasonable price. 

Brad Peacock is 4-0 with a 2.87 ERA in seven road starts for Houston. He's pitched very well away from home and is getting an Arizona squad that is not playing good baseball right now. Houston's bullpen is alright and if we can get six strong from Peacock, then things will line up nicely. Houston's done pretty well in interleague play this season and has returned pretty much their whole lineup intact. They are hitting .289 against left-handed starters and are seeing Anthony Banda. The youngster has allowed seven of his eight runs at home although they came against the Dodgers and Nationals. Houston's lineup is right up there with them so he should struggle again. Arizona's bullpen isn't that great so any late leads could be blown. I think there's some value with the road team. 

Justin Nicolino is back in the majors and I'm ready to fade him again. Nicolino is 0-1 with a 4.95 ERA in five starts spanning only 20 innings of work. The southpaw doesnt have strikeout stuff. Colorado is 20-12 against left-handed starters hitting .280 against them with 5.5 runs per game. Miami's bullpen will have to cover a lot of ground and that's not the best unit. Jeff Hoffman has allowed three runs and nine hits in his last two starts. The righty is 4-1 with a 3.65 ERA in six road starts. Miami's hitting .225 in their last seven games and doesnt have too many threats. It's a bit of a concern that Greg Holland has blown a couple of saves but he's still a really good closer. I'll back the road team in this one.

John Lackey is fade material for me on the road even though he's won three straight starts. Lackey is 9-9 with a 4.81 ERA in 21 starts for Chicago. He has not lost to the Diamondbacks in five career starts although last year in Arizona he gave up six runs and eight hits in six innings. The Snakes are tough at home when they aren't playing the Dodgers. Chicago's bullpen has 17 losses and 13 blown saves. Taijuan Walker has allowed eight runs and 13 hits in his last three starts. The righty has 22 strikeouts to four walks over that span. He's never faced the Cubs who are hitting just .236 against right-handed starters. As I said, I'll fade Lackey when I get the chance.

Jeff Hoffman is coming off a solid effort against the Mets as he tries to improve on a 7.05 ERA at home. Hoffman beat the Phillies at their place a few months ago giving up one run and three hits in seven innings of work. Philly is 16-41 on the road and averaging less then four runs per game. They have struggled terribly on this road trip and shouldn't be priced here on Sunday. Aaron Nola is making his first ever appearance in Coors Field as a starter. The righty is 3-4 with a 3.46 ERA in nine road starts. The Rockies are 28-13 in day games hitting .291 while averaging six runs per contest. They have the edge in bullpen as the Phillies have gone young in that group. I think the home team is a good play here even with the better pitcher on the road team.