I really like the Cubs here tonight after ending their road skid last night.  They in fact should be going for the sweep here tonight and should be a bigger favorite.  Quintana is coming off a great start @ Phillies striking out 14 and brings in a 1.89 ERA his last 3 starts.  He has also had great success against the Pirates with a 4-1 record and 2.81 ERA.

The books are showing their hand here by making the Rangers this price.  Lance Lynn is just having himself a great season with a 3.54 ERA and a 14-8 overall record.  He brings in a 1.42 ERA his last 3 starts.

Perez has really struggled as of late with a 5.82 ERA and yes I realize he is coming off a good start, but I don't see it happening here.  In fact he already faced the Rangers this season and got hit hard and was lucky to come away with the win still

Indians will be extra motivated here to avoid getting swept by the Yankees. They have the huge advantage on the mound here with Clevinger.  He brings in a 3.50 ERA his last 3 starts.  He has an overall 7-2 record this season.

CC is just one you can't trust at this stage as the season goes on.  His numbers home look good but it's clear he is wearing down with a 8.79 ERA his last 3 starts.  

Minor has been one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball this season.  He is 11-6 on the year with a 2.90 ERA.  He has a 5-2 home record and is in great form with a 2.25 ERA his last 3 starts. Both teams hit the snot out of the ball yesterday but the Twins in the final score made it look like a blowout.  Also this line is moving in the Rangers direction which I think is a telling sign.

Maybe I'm a sucker here but this is such a good price to back Castillo I have to.  Castillo is one of the best pitchers in the league there is no denying that.  he owns a 7-3 home record with a 2.45 ERA and is in great form with a 2.61 ERA his last 3 starts.  He has also itched very well against the Cards with a 3.11 ERA.

Wainwright has been terrible on the road with a 2-6 record and 6.79 ERA.  He has also struggled big time in his career against the Reds with a 5.42 ERA.

This is a very good price here to back the Cubs.  They will be extra motivated I feel coming off at deflating loss last night.  I know Hendricks has had his road struggles but still has a respectable 3.48 ERA on the season.  He has pitched very well against the Pirates for his career with a 3.25 ERA.  

Pirates have been one of the worst teams since all star break.  Musgrove is in terrible form right now with a 7.98 ERA his last 3 starts.  He hasn't been impressive at home either with a 5.40 ERA.

This is a little steeper than I had hoped, but clearly the books are pointing their head in this direction for the Brewers.  Twins have no cooled off granted playing tough teams, but still they are in a rough spot here.  I don't think things get any easier with Perez on the mound.  he has a 7.41 ERA his last 3 starts. The Brewers just had a 5 game winning streak snapped, but I think they rebound here with Anderson.  He has been rocking solid all season with a 3.61 ERA in 18 starts.  He is in great form with a 2.70 ERA his last 3 starts.

Ever seen a starter with a 13-4 record but an ERA of over 4?  Well Fried continues to be extremely lucky here IMO.  He gets crazy run support all the time, but I think it's going to catch up with him.  Mets couldn't cap off the sweep against the Nationals but they are still the hottest team in the league and at this price with Wheeler in great form with a 1.33 ERA his last 3 I think the value is there.  

The Phillies are going the wrong direction here going just 2-5 in their 7 game road trip.  This is a cheaper price here because everyone ids aware of the Cubs struggles on the road.  Well they split with the Reds in a 4 game series and capped it off by getting to Castillo the Reds ace.  

Quintana has a 3.06 ERA his last 3 starts.  The Cubs are 7-3 their last 10 games. Vargas brings in a 4.76 ERA his last 3 starts and those all came against teams that won't be making the playoffs.  

Good price here with the Royals as they send Junis to the mound.  They shut down the Tigers in a 7-0 win yesterday and Junis has a career 5-1 record lifetime against the Tigers.  He has also pitched his best on the road this season with a 3.98 ERA and his coming off a very good start @ Boston winning and only giving up 1 run in 6 innings.

Norris is a decent pitcher but just gets no support as he has a 1-5 home record.  He is coming off a bad outing against the White Sox as well.  Very good price to back KC here as I think this line will only go up

The Pirates have clearly thrown in the towel for the season and I don't see them bouncing back here.  The line IMO should be higher but based on the Cardinals recent struggles we are getting a decent price.  Archer has yet to win a road game in 9 starts with an ERA over 7 and is in bad form with an ERA over 5 his last 3 starts.  Hudson has pitched much better at home with a 3.24 ERA on the year and is coming off a good start against a quality team in the A's.  Cardinals will be motivated here as they are only .5 game out of the wild card.

I will lay the juice here with the Indians.  Mad at met self for not backing them yesterday.  They are hot right now winning 6 of their last 7 games and I think they will end up winning the division.  Bieber is in great form with a `1.44 ERA His last 3 starts.  We have only seen a limited example of Smeltzer and while he has pitched well he did face the Indians and got lite up.  

I had the Cubs yesterday and will back them again today.  I think books are still take into account how poorly they have played on the road.  I think now though we are seeing a different team.  Darvish has a also been a different pitcher since all star break.  With the Cubs bats extremely hot right now I look for that to continue.

The Nationals are playing well, but the Mets are the hottest team in the league right now and will be sending out Stroman and this is what they brought him over for is a game like this.  Strasburg is a stud but is coming off a brutal outing.  yes, the Mets have played an easier schedule but there is something to say when a team is playing with a ton of confidence.  

I like the D Backs here tonight with Gallen on the mound.  This guy has a lot of promise and the D Backs are swinging some hot bats.  They have scored 36 runs the last 4 games and Gallen is coming off a great start against the Twins going 7 innings only giving up 2 runs.  Vargas numbers look good here but all those recent starts are at home.  His road numbers are a different story. D Backs continue to swing it well and get it done tonight

I like the price here with Flaherty.  Yes I know the Cardinals are struggling but last nights game could have gone either way facing Kershaw.  I think they have much better success today against May.  While his debut might look decent, I think it was lucky as he only gave up 3 runs but a staggering 9 hits in under 6 innings of work.  Flaherty is pitching his best right now with a 1.04 ERA his last 3 starts.  In those starts he has struck out 25 in 17 innings which is very impressive.  

I really like the Cubs here today to bounce back from an ugly loss with Lester yesterday.  The Cubs only scored 4 runs but still racked up 11 hits.  Both teams are playing very well right now which now goes to the pitching match up. 

I just trust Quintana more here as he is coming off 2 good starts.  Bailey has a 8.59 ERA his last 3 starts and an ERA over 6 on the road.  

I like McKay here to shut down the Blue Jays today.  They had a crazy come from behind win and I think that bolds well for momentum here today.  McKay was really impressive his last time out @ Boston and can handle this Blue Jay team.  Tampa has owned Toronto this season going 8-3 SU.

The Cardinals have cooled off a little just 2-3 their last 5.  Hudson for them has dropped off big time with a 6.46 ERA his last 3 starts.  Fiers is 6-1@ Home with a 1.95 ERA

With yesterday’s game being a crazy high scoring affair I think we are seeing an overreactio.  The key here is that both pitchers are in respectable form.  Gibson pitches his best @ home but both pitchers throw well against each other’s team.  Duffy has a 2.80 careers against Twins and Gibson a 3.59 career against the Royals 

We know Mckay is a stud and will be, but he has only had 4 starts and tonight will be different @ Boston.  He also got roughed up last time out vs the White Sox.  The Red Sox are hitting the cover off the ball still, but just not showing up in the win column.  I think they avoid the sweep here tonight and Cashner is coming off a good outing against the Yankees.  Boston knows the importance here before have another series with the Yankees tomorrow

The Cubs responded with a big effort Sunday which I had against the Brewers avoiding getting swept.  The Cardinals will be a popular dog pick because of how they have played but does beating Pittsburgh who has lost 8 straight mean much?  Darvish has been a new Guy since all Star break and Wainwright I don’t trust as he has been below average against the Cubs in his career 

Late add

With the Yankees coming alive Sunday night and avoiding the 4 game sweep against their rival Boston I think we are getting a cheap price here on the RL.  Happ isn’t the greatest but he will get run support here. Clarke has a 6.92 ERA on the rod in 6 starts

I thought this would be a steeper price so will gladly take the Nationals here.  While Fedde is an unknown he has had only one bad start since the end of May.  I know Teheran is in good form and just beat the Nationals but that is because he brings it at home.  On the road it’s a different story he just 2-4 in 12 start with a 4.45 ERA

I had the Nationals yesterday as a dog in a easy winner over the Dodgers.  I love the pitching match up here with Corbin on the mound.  He is 5-1 at home with a 1.68 ERA.  He also has pitched very well against the Braves with a 4-1’record and 2.03’ERA. 

Keuchel has done decent for the Braves but I’m definitely not sold on him.  The Nationals torched him the first go around and he has struggled on the road. 

The Cubs bullpen blew another game yet again, but that is now giving us a good price and I believe they go off favored here.  Quintana is 6-4 lifetime with a 2.63 ERA against the Brewers.  Davies has had a fine year, but coming off a terrible start against the Reds.  Cubs avoid getting swept here.

Lets lay the big price here with the Twins.  I think they bounce back here in a nice way after losing yesterday.  While Gibson is nothing special he is still way better than Covey.  His last start was rough but that was against the Yankees.  He has pitched very well against the Twins with a career 2.82 ERA.  

Covey has pitched well at home but noting points to him in this spot here.  He is coming off a brutal outing at home against the Marlins and owns a 10.03 ERA his last 3 starts. He also got roughed up in his only start against the Twins this season

I know the Nationals have lost 3 straight, but Strasburg at home as a dog?  We have to take it here. He is 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA and in great form with a 1.56 ERA his last 3 starts.  I think we get an extra motivated Nationals team avoiding the sweep here with their ace on the mound.  

Really love the Phillies here to avoid getting swept.  They are sending out their ace here in Nola who is 8-2 on the year with a 3.64 ERA.  He also owns a 3-1 record at home with a 3.03 ERA, but more importantly he has pitched extremely well against the Braves with a 9-3 career record and 2.26 ERA.

Gausman is one to stay away from right now with a 6.35 road ERA and and a 5.71 ERA on the season

Hendricks is coming back to form here as he his last 3 starts have been quality.  I think the Cubs will

be a play on team going forward here and win the division fairly easily.  Milwaukee has definitely been the luckiest team in the league so far.  Gio isn’t in good form with an ERA over 6 his last 3 

With the Red Sox just spanking the Yankees last night I think we get so nice revenge here.  Paxton has loved pitching against the Red Sox with a career 1.62 ERA.  This includes a 8 inning shut out early this season.  Cashner I no part of as he has struggled since joining the Red Sox

With the Twins coming fresh off a tough series dropping two straight against the Yankees I think they are being over valued here tonight.  WhitenSox will send out one of the best pitchers in the game in Giolito who has been a machine with his only bad start coming against the Cubs. Twins aren’t doing anything special after all Star break

The Yankees are crazy hot right now scoring 30 in their series against the Twin.  I think that continues here tonight against Porcello who has faced them twice and already been forced in both starts. 

I really think this line will climb.  I had the Cubs last night and of course the bullpen blows it in the 8th inning.  Darvish looks like a new guy here since All Star break but hasn’t been priced at it.  Bumgarner is a household name but has fallen off.  Even with the Giants being this hot and the line moving this direction it says a lot about what oddsmakers think here

The Yankees dropped game 1 last night and I would say they were unlucky.  Yankees had plenty of chances but hit into a triple play in the first inning and only scored one run with the bases loaded in the third.  Gibson is 1-6 career lifetime against the Yankees 

 Sanchez is one of the worst starters in the league with a 3-14 record.  The Indians are hot right now going 8-1 SU their last 9 and send Bauer to the mound with great road stats and a 6-2 road record

The Cubs have been hot since All star break only losing one game.  They have the advantage here with Hendricks and the Padres are sliding only winning one game since the break.  Hendricks has his best stuff at home with a 4-1 Record and an ERA under 2

The Twins haven’t played their best by any means here lately but will take them here with Pineda who is in good form only giving up one run each his last 3 starts.  

Giolito has absolutely owned the Royals in his career with a 6-0 record and an ERA under 3.  This line will only go higher here as well.  Junis is 2-4 at home with a 5.89 ERA.  Giolito also brings his best on the road with a 6-1 record

Think this is a tough spot for the Braves here today.  Coming off a sweep @ San Diego and now travel @ Milwaukee.  The thing is Atlanta is getting respect because of how good they are but Fried is just terrible and even though the Brewers dropped 2 of 3 against the Giants they still had a combined 36 hits in those 3 games.  Brewers offense should have no issue hitting Fried.