10* Over Bengals/Broncos (8:25 ET): This is one of the lowest NFL totals I've seen all season. I suppose that this should not be all that surprising. We have two of the best defenses in the league here and a matchup that will likely determine who gets a 1st round bye in the AFC Playoffs (and who doesn't), thus it should be a playoff-like atmosphere in cold Denver Monday night.  But, in the modern NFL, a number like this is just far too low. Yes, neither defense allows 20 points per game and in the case of each offense, it is a "backup" QB at the helm. But both offenses are more than capable of helping send this one Over the total. Take the Over. These teams played to a 38-27 final (won by Cincinnati) last season on Monday Night Football, the third straight Over in series history. 

For Denver, Brock Osweiler is a "backup" in name only. He's clearly been a better option than the embattled Peyton Manning this season and he proved that by directing a 27-point first half last week in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately though, the Broncos failed to score after halftime. Incredibly, that was the offense's third consecutive game doing so! Troubling for sure, but that first half showed me what Osweiler can do. He'll be going against a Bengals defense that allows just 17.4 points per game (1st in the league), but I think the Broncos can easily top that number as Cincy has been a little fortunate to allow 19.4 yards per point this season.  Opposing QB's are completing 65% of their passes against this defense and two games ago, they gave up 33 points to Pittsburgh.  The thing to consider w/ Cincinnati is that they've been facing a lot of bad offenses lately (Houston, Cleveland twice, St. Louis and San Francisco). 

The Bengals offense averages 29 PPG on the road and had scored 30+ in three consecutive contests before Andy Dalton got hurt. Still though, with AJ McCarron at the helm, they scored 24 points LW against what is a pretty good 49ers defense (don't laugh!). They did struggle to run the ball, but McCarron showed me an ability to throw the ball downfield. Denver's defense has given up 24 or more points in four of the last seven games and again, the exceptions have come against the "lesser" offenses they have faced. There's no reason to believe that this can't be a 24-17 game, which of course means the Over would be a winner. 10* Over Bengals/Broncos

10* Under Patriots/Jets (1:00 ET): If you're a regular reader/client of mine, then you know that I'm a firm believer that when you have two division rivals playing for a second time, fewer points should be expected. I expect that to be the case here in a critical game for both the Patriots and Jets, which should have a "playoff-like" vibe to it. New England has regained control of homefield advantage in the AFC and can clinch the #1 overall seed w/ a win here. The Jets, who could finish 11-5 SU and still MISS the playoffs, desperately needs to keep winning and hope either Kansas City or Pittsburgh slips up once in these last two weeks (not likely). The first meeting of the year (where I cashed the Jets +9) was surprisingly high-scoring (Patriots won 30-23) even though neither team really put up a ton of yards. I expect a much lower scoring game this week. Take the Under.

In that Week 7 win over the Jets, New England almost exclusively went to the pass as they gained just 16 yards rushing - for the entire game! Few teams have had success running the ball this year against the Jets, who are #2 in the league in that department (just 82.8 YPG allowed).  The issue here is that Tom Brady won't likely have the same success passing the ball like in the first matchup as his receivers have been "dropping like flies" (injuries) throughout the season. The Pats did manage to score 30+ points for the first time in seven weeks last Sunday, but consider that a) they were playing the Titans and b) one of their three touchdowns came from the defense.

The Jets are top five in the league in total defense and top eight in scoring (just 19.4 PPG allowed). Besides the first meeting with the Patriots, there has been only one other game where they allowed more than 24 points and it too came on the road (at Oakland). The team's last three games have all stayed Under and five of the last six have seen 43 or fewer total points scored. However, what surprised me the most when handicapping this rematch is the fact New England actually allows fewer points per game than the Jets (19.2). Take away the three non-offensive TD's Philadelphia scored against them a few weeks back and this unit's recent string of performances look all the more impressive. 10* Under Patriots/Jets

10* Under Redskins/Eagles (8:25 ET):  This one falls under the domain of a divisional rematch, which usually end up being lower scoring than the "original." Such was the case Thursday w/ Chargers-Raiders. I made a bad decision in that one, electing to only go with the 1st Half Under as it was the second half where the scoring screeched to a grinding halt. Here, we have a matchup of two teams that played to a 23-20 final the first go around and curiously the total is higher for the rematch. Perhaps that has to do w/ both teams more recent outputs, but I expect this game to have a more "playoff-like" mentality as there's a chance (if Washington wins) the NFC East could actually be decided here.  Take the Under.

When handicapping the Redskins, one must obviously consider the strong home-road dichotomy that is in play. Prior to winning in Chicago two weeks ago, this is a team that didn't have a road win to its name all season. It's not even really QB Kirk Cousins to blame for the decline in offensive production when the Redskins take their act on the road, but rather an anemic rushing attack which averages a paltry 54 yards per game outside of D.C. Overall, the offense averages just 18.3 points per game on the road, well under its overall season average. The 24 points they scored two weeks ago against the Bears was their highest scoring game on the road all season. 

Washington is 4-2 Over on the road because of a defense that has surrendered over 30 PPG in those contests, but I'm not sure Philadelphia has the offense to take appropriate advantage of this. Take out the three non-offensive TD's they scored against the Patriots a few weeks ago and over the last six games, the team has scored just 104 points total or an average of 17.3 per game. Now, they did gain over 400+ total yards LW vs. Arizona and they will be able to move the ball against this Washington defense. But I don't see this turning into any kind of shootout w/ the Eagles averaging just 21.7 PPG at home this year. Consider that when these teams met earlier in the year, Philadelphia was shutout in the first half.  10* Under Redskins/Eagles

10* Over Dolphins/Chargers (4:25 ET):  In an atypically busy 4 PM slate of games, this matchup of AFC also-rans isn't likely to attract much, if any, attention. But when it comes to the total at least, there's some pretty good value here.  Sure, San Diego has been horrible offensively of late (though they did cash as double digit dogs for me last week!), scoring exactly three points in three of the last four games. But this one falls into the concept of two bad teams playing late in the season and that means little defense is likely to be played. Miami certainly didn't put up much of a defensive effort Monday night in a 31-24 loss to the Giants (where I cashed BOTH side & total!) and working on a short week after going cross-country isn't likely to inspire any kind of improved effort.  Take the Over. 

I wrote fairly extensively last week about the Dolphins' defensive ineptitude. I'll reiterate how this unit now ranks 28th in yards allowed and 26th in points. Monday night marked the fourth time in the last seven games that they allowed more than 30 points.  This has to be "music to the ears" to Chargers' QB Philip Rivers, who is in line for a big game. Particularly so, if he gets something from the dormant rushing attack, which will be going against Miami's 30th ranked rush defense. Last week saw Rivers and company have to deal with a driving rainstorm and an excellent Cheifs defense, two things that will not be present in sunny San Diego on Sunday afternoon. The Chargers did actually move the ball some last week vs. the Chiefs w/ four drives of six or more plays resulting in zero points, including the final one, which lasted 17 plays and 74 yards, but ended with an incompletion in the end zone on the game's final play.

Miami was able to stay in the game Monday night because they were facing a suspect Giants defense and this week they'll be going up against a similarly bad defense.  San Diego has allowed 26.9 PPG at home this season and allowed opposing QB's to complete over 69 percent of their pass attempts! So, Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill could be in line for a much-needed big game as well. The offense was at about 60 yards above their season average vs. the Giants last week and had 17 pts in the first half alone.  They also need to start giving RB Lamar Miller more carries (over 7.0 YPC Monday night).  San Diego's run defense (127 YPG allowed) is also one of the worst in football (27th).  In what could be the final NFL game ever at Qualcomm Stadium, expect a shootout. 10* Over Dolphins/Chargers

10* Over Buccaneers/Rams (8:25 ET): Part of me has a slight lean towards Tampa Bay in this matchup. They are off a very disappointing loss last week, at home, to New Orleans. That loss not only prevented them from topping their season win total, but also pretty much killed off whatever small chance they had at making the playoffs. Meanwhile, St. Louis was a winner for me on Sunday, beating Detroit w/ a defensive touchdown being the difference in the game. That win and cover snapped a 5-game ATS slide for the Rams.  However, I'm far more locked into the total now for this Thursday night matchup (rematch of 1999 NFC Championship Game!). While neither offense was impressive LW, this total is low and I anticipate more points being score than expected. Take the Over. 

Now, I am aware that the Rams have gone Under the total in four straight games, not to mention seven of their last eight. Take away last week's defensive score and the team has not scored 20 points in six consecutive contests. But this Bucs defense isn't to be feared, particularly on the road where they allow opposing QB's to complete nearly 70 percent (!) of their pass attempts (69.4%) and 384 total yards per game. They were right at that average LW at home vs. the Saints, giving up 388 yds in the 24-17 loss and Drew Brees completed 31 passes.  St. Louis clearly will try and run the ball more as we saw them run for a season-best 203 yds LW.  Re-establishing Todd Gurley went a long way against the Lions and though the Bucs' have actually done an outstanding job at stopping the run recently, they haven't faced a back as dangerous as Gurley during that time.

St. Louis has actually beaten Tampa Bay each of the last three seasons and all three times the game stayed Under. But the Bucs now have Jameis Winston at QB and while he may have had a disappointing day vs. what had been an awful Saints' defense, I expect him to bounce back tonight. Yes, four of the last six games have seen the Bucs fail to score 20 points. But when you have two bad teams likes this, late in the season, defense often becomes optional. Quietly, Tampa Bay has the fourth best rushing offense in the NFL (141.2 YPG), so they should be able to move the ball in this one. In the end, this is a really low total by today's NFL standards and for the Bucs, they are 4-1 Over this season when the O/U line is between 40 and 42 points w/ all four Overs seeing at least 56 total pts scored! 10* Over Bucs/Rams

10* Over Giants/Dolphins (8:30 ET):  Both of these teams come in at 5-7 SU and have been outgained in 10 of their 12 games. So, from that perspective, they appear to be evenly matched.  Also, neither has a very good defense (Miami 27th, Giants 31st) in terms of yards allowed.  While I absolutely prefer one side in this matchup (don't miss my *10* SUPER POWER), I love the total even more. Considering how bad the respective defenses have been, I'm on the Over in this one.  Yes, Under players had a big day Sunday and Miami is off an awful offensive performance in its last game. But, those factors have helped keep this number lower than what it should be.  Take the Over.

There have been just two games all season where the Giants have failed to score 20 points.  Both came against division opponents. The most recent being a rematch w/ Washington (typically divisional rematches lower scoring than the original).  Including that game, the G-Men are off their lowest scoring two-game stretch of the season as LW saw them get held to only 20 points in a loss to the Jets. They would have scored more, and possibly won, had it not been for a failed fourth down attempt inside the 5-yard line.  The Redskins & Jets also have solid defenses.  The Dolphins do not.  They allow 25 points and 390 yards per game and have given up 33+ in three of their last six games.  Eli Manning has averaged 300+ yards passing the L3 weeks and had averaged over 40 attempts per game over a four-game stretch prior to LW.

While the Giants offense should have a big night, it would be wrong to expect their defense to pitch a shutout.  They are dead last in the league, allowing 424 YPG (6.2 yard per play!), so expect Miami to do better than the paltry 15 points and 219 yards they put up last week vs. Baltimore.  QB Ryan Tannehill should fare well against the league's worst pass defense, but the real key here is probably the Giants' own rushing attack going up against a Dolphins' run defense that allows 134.8 yards per game.  I look for this one to turn into a shootout. 10* Over Giants/Dolphins

10* Under Steelers/Bengals (1:00 ET):  If you were on board last week, then perhaps you'll recall how I laid out a theory behind divisional rematches, generally, ending up lower scoring than the original. Things played out just the way I'd hoped with Arizona-St. Louis as the two combined for only 30 points, which 16 points fewer than they combined for in the first meeting and more importantly 13 fewer than the posted total. It's a bit of a different situation this week with Pittsburgh at Cincinnati as we will have two offenses to worry about, not one (St. Louis was a virtual non-factor in LW's play), and while these two AFC North rivals played to a 16-10 final the first go-around, it's not likely we will be getting a lower-scoring rematch here. But, then again, it doesn't have to be. The oddsmakers have been "kind enough" to give us plenty of points to work with; even though the first meeting stayed way Under the total. This one will too. Take the Under.

Cincinnati destroyed Cleveland last week in what was a rare bad call by me and one of only two losses I took in Week 13 (went 7-2 overall). But while that particular matchup ended up being completely lopsided (37-3), total yardage was actually fairly even until late in the third quarter when two late Bengals' drives accounted for 60 yards. It should also be noted that 23 of the Bengals' 37 points came after the Browns turned it over via a fumble/INT/downs or a missed field goal. Pittsburgh's defense, which allows just 20.0 points per game, will clearly offer greater resistance. Of course, you can't sleep on this Bengals' defense either as it is #1 in the league in points allowed and gives up only 15.2 PPG at home, and is the driving force behind the fact the team has gone Under in five of its last six games. During that time, they've allowed 10 pts or fewer five times!

Pittsburgh's offense exploded for a season-high 45 points last week in their own beatdown (of Indianapolis), a  Sunday night game where I cashed them in the 1st half. That made it four consecutive games of 30+ points for the Steelers, but I seriously doubt they'll even approach that threshold here. I was surprised to find that the Black & Gold average only 20 PPG on the road and remember that Ben Roethlisberger was the QB when they were held to a season-low 10 points in the first meeting w/ the Bengals.  Not only that, but Big Ben was held to a season low in yards per pass attempt (5.8).  Cincinnati's offense was held to just six points until the final three minutes of that game! Again, I'm not sure this will be a lower-scoring game than the first matchup (probably won't), but it doesn't have to be and I love the fact that the number was bet up during the course of the week. 10* Under Steelers/Bengals

10* Under Cardinals/Rams (1:00 ET):  Divisional rematches, often times, end up lower-scoring than the original.  I realize that I somewhat "violated" this axiom by getting down on the Over Monday night (which did cash, mind you!). However, for what it's worth, Ravens-Browns 2 did actually feature fewer points than the first time they played and if you subtract the THREE non-offensive TD's that were scored in that game (though I didn't mind them at the time!), then it would have been significantly lower-scoring. This week, I'm taking this idea into account for a Cardinals-Rams, a matchup that saw St. Louis actually win the first go-around, 24-22, even though Arizona had a 2:1 edge in first downs (-3 in turnovers). While calling for the Cardinals to exact revenge might seem appropriate to some here, I like the Under more.

Arizona has been one of the best team's in the league all season, but last week saw them resemble last year's more fortunate bunch as they clearly "played down" to the level of competition in San Francisco, escaping w/ only a 20-13 victory. I covered w/ the home dog there and once again the Cardinals will be facing a stingy defense as the Rams permit just 18.4 points per game.  The Cards were able to gain 447 total yards in that first meeting, but I don't see them coming close to matching that output here, not w/ the running game that's currently in bad shape.  Both Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out and the former is a significant loss as he was fourth in the league in rushing. This leaves rookie David Johnson as the primary, and possibly only, ball carrier and he has been plagued by fumbling issues. The Rams defense allows just 92 YPG on the ground at home, so a potentially one-dimensional Arizona offense should struggle to move the ball Sunday.

A play on St. Louis this week would require quite the leap of faith as their offense is in shambles right now. They don't have a competent QB on the roster (as much as they "ripped off" Washington in the RG3 trade, it's not like it's translated into any real success) as Case Keenum is two weeks removed from a concussion and Nick Foles has just been awful all year. The offense has failed to gain 300 yards each of the last three games, averaging just 11.0 PPG and there have been seven times this season where they've failed to break 20 pts.  Rookie Todd Gurley had a strong effort in the first meeting w/ Arizona (140+ yds rushing), but he won't come close to matching that here as his numbers are down in recent weeks (54.8 YPG L4 wks) & Arizona is allowing just 91 rushing YPG on the season. St. Louis' passing game is virtually non-existent, a major reason the team has gone Under in six of its last seven games. 10* Under Cardinals/Rams

10* Over Ravens/Browns (8:25 ET): Much will be made here of who ISN'T on the field for the respective offenses. What had already been a nightmare season for Baltimore somehow took a further turn for the worse (even in victory) last week as both QB Joe Flacco (ACL/MCL) and RB Justin Forsett (broken arm) were lost for the season! That leaves journeyman Matt Schaub under center and keep in mind that both of the team's projected starting receivers are out for the year as well! As for Cleveland, you know they upset the execs at ESPN when the decision was made to bench Johnny Manziel for this game due to the "same old" off-field antics we've come to expect. Despite all the absences, I'm still anticipating a relatively high scoring affair here or enough to go Over what is a very low total by today's NFL standards. Take the Over.

These teams already played once this season and the result of that first meeting was a 33-30 OT win for the Browns, who haven't won since.  It's been five straight losses in Cleveland and in the last four games, they've averaged a pathetic 11.25 points and less than 300 yds per game. For as much talk about how Manziel can be a more "dynamic" element for this offense, it was veteran Josh McCown that had a career day vs. Baltimore last month, throwing for a career-best 457 yards. That was easily Cleveland's best offensive day of the season and it's not difficult to see why. The Ravens' defense has fallen off a cliff this year, yielding 5.7 yards per play and almost 25 points per game. Another season-ending injury, one to top pass-rusher Terrelle Suggs, has been a contributing factor there. But, there's also as little talent on that side of the ball as we've even seen in Baltimore.  I see no reason why McCown can't have another big day here.

Nationally, this is obviously a very unappealing matchup. But because both teams are out of it, we could very well see another shootout. Cleveland's defense is one of the worst in the league statistically as they allow 27.7 PPG and Baltimore should absolutely be able to run the ball effectively here as the Browns yield 139 rushing YPG, most in the league. All four Browns' home games to this point have gone Over the total as they've scored at least 20 points every time out. Both teams should be able to get to that benchmark tonight in what could end up being an entertaining, albeit totally meaningless, game.  10* Over Ravens/Browns

10* Over Patriots/Broncos (8:30 ET): This is actually a matchup of the top two scoring defenses in the league, which is not what you expect when analyzing Patriots-Broncos as it's normally the offense grabbing the headlines. That fact, combined with some expected chilly weather conditions, have led to the O/U line being bet down significantly and I feel it's now an opportune time to take advantage of an overreaction and to play the Over. Remember that I played the Under Monday night w/ the Patriots as they won an ugly one over the Bills, 20-13. This will easily be the lowest O/U for any game this year involving New England, a team that comes in averaging 32.3 points per game.  Take the Over.

The Patriots' defense may be #1 in scoring, but they allow roughly 60 yards per game more than the Broncos. That has them at 14th in total defense, indicating they've been fortunate to give up as few points as they have. They also haven't faced very many good offenses throughout the year. They allow 18.7 yards per point, which is extremely fortunate.  Only Pittsburgh has been more "bend but don't break" league-wide at 19.4 yards per point allowed.  I've made the case previously that the Denver offense is likely to be more efficient w/ Brock Osweiler under center as opposed to Peyton Manning and I mean it as he's more likely to run the kind of attack HC Gary Kubiak wants. Remember that this Broncos' offense is loaded w/ weapons at the skill positions and gets WR Emmanuel Sanders back here.  They gained almost 400 yards in last week's win over the Bears.

New England's offense is rapidly losing playmakers, but there hasn't been a game all year that they haven't scored at least 20 points.  Last week marked the season-low as Buffalo was able to pressure Tom Brady, but will Denver be able to do the same w/o DeMarcus Ware?  I do expect the Broncos defense to have success in this game, but only to a degree.  Again, with this being such a low total for the Patriots, we don't even need either team to hit its season average in points per game. Note that five of the past six meetings between these two have gone Over and in five of those games the O/U line was greater than 50 points.  10* Over Patriots/Broncos

10* Over Bears/Packers (8:30 ET):  The last four times these long-standing rivals have met have all seen the combo of Green Bay & Over cash. All the way back in Week 1, the Packers struggled far more w/ the underdog Bears then you may remember.  It was a 31-23 final where they were outgained by Chicago (402-322) and actually trailed going into halftime. But that was in the Windy City and not Lambeau Field. So, despite division dogs of a TD or more often being a solid value, I'll resist the urge to take the points in this situation, especially because it's going to be an emotional night w/ Brett Favre's number being retired.  Typically, the Packers have been dominant here at home and considering what happened the last time they played here (outright loss to Detroit!), they should be in "full force" Thanksgiving night. Therefore, we turn to the total where both teams have been surprisingly rewarding Under bettors of late. But I look for that to change here. Take the Over.

Green Bay got back on track LW in Minnesota w/ a critical 30-13 victory that reclaimed first place in the NFC North. It was the offense's highest scoring output since a 38-28 win over Kansas City, which was all the way back in Wk 3, also a night game (Monday).  Yes, the receiving corps is depleted for Aaron Rodgers.  But that didn't stop him from throwing for 300+ yards in the two games prior to last week.  The Vikings defense that held him to 212 yds passing is a much stronger unit than the one he'll face here.  Chicago's defense has gradually improved under John Fox, but still allows 25.1 points per game. The fact remains this Packers offense has always been better at home, particularly in this primetime affairs. Incredibly, they have averaged 41 PPG their L5 night games here at Lambeau w/ Rodgers turning in a 19-0 TD-INT ratio! 

Chicago's offense, meanwhile, is better than you think.  Sure they were held to just 15 points last week, but they too faced a better defense (Denver) than what they'll see here. The week previous, on the road, saw the Bears explode for a season-high 37 points against a pretty good Rams defense. Had this team not had to turn to the now-released Jimmy Clausen early in the season (shutout in Seattle), the overall offensive numbers would look better. Matt Forte is coming back this week and he and Jeremy Langford are an excellent tandem out of the backfield.  Even better is that it's looking like WR Alshon Jeffery will be back as well. A depleted receiving corps really hurt Cutler LW vs. the Broncos.  I look for a high scoring game Thanksgiving night.  10* Over Bears/Packers

8* Under Bills/Patriots (8:25 ET):  The first matchup of the season between these two was quite the high-scoring affair as New England (as a pick 'em or underdog, depending on your line) went into Buffalo and prevailed 40-32. But that final score was somewhat misleading in the sense that the Pats led 37-13 heading into the fourth quarter. That loss dropped the Bills to 3-27 SU their L30 games vs. New England. They (Buffalo) were clearly overvalued heading into that Week 2 tilt and one could argue that they still are here, but rather than lay the points w/ an unbeaten team (risky!), I'm more interested in tonight's total. I don't think we'll see nearly the same amount of scoring as we did the first go around.  Take the Under.

Going w/ the Under is a little risky here in the sense that New England has scored at least 27 points in every game this season. They'd scored 30 or more six straight weeks before landing on exactly 27 each of the L2 games. However, remember that this is a banged up offense right now that's down several key weapons, most notably RB Dion Lewis (done for the year) and WR Julian Edelman (Brady's favorite target).  The offensive line is also not healthy. Last week's game vs. the Giants was fortunate to go Over the total as Tom Brady should have been intercepted on the final drive (dropped), which ultimately resulted in a GW FG.  The Bills defense, despite inferior numbers under Rex Ryan compared to last season, remains a formidable unit. They've allowed just 17 pts B2B weeks and have given up fewer than that three other times this season. 

New England is actually only 5-4 Over in all games this season and the key to the Under has been their defense. In three of the four games that stayed Under, they held their opponents to 10 points or less! Surprisingly, Belichick's defense is allowing only 18.8 points per game this season, fourth best in the entire league. While the Over is 7-2 the L9 meetings between these two, tonight's number is higher than any of the previous four. The Bills offense does not scare me at all; in fact they gained less than 300 total yds LW vs. the Jets and scored only one touchdown. I am expecting tonight to be one of their lowest scoring outputs of the entire year. 8* Under Bills/Patriots

10* Over Packers/Vikings (4:25 ET):  This is an honest-to-god, big-time showdown in the NFC North, a division you can no longer simply "concede" to Green Bay.  The Pack have lost three straight, their longest losing streak w/ Aaron Rodgers at the helm since his 1st year as a starter (2008).  Minnesota now finds itself in first place at 7-2, thanks to a five-game SU win streak, and they also have the distinction of being the league's best ATS team as well, at 8-1 (8-0 ATS L8!). They also are the league's top Under team (7-1-1, counting LW's game at Oakland as a 'push') and surprisingly not far behind them in that category is Green Bay, who has gone Under in six of its nine games. But all this talk of Unders has made this total much lower than it should be.  Take the Over.

Though you wouldn't know it by watching them recently, the Packers still have an explosive offense as long as Rodgers is at the helm. They average 24.3 PPG even after last week's 'dud' performance at home against Detroit (I was on the Lions!) where they gained much of their 372 total yards late in the game, after falling behind.  That's been the pattern the L2 wks, nevermind the disaster at Denver, but I just find it too hard to believe that this unit can play this poorly for any extended period of time. They are still averaging 5.7 yards per play for the season. It appears as if this O/U line will close as the lowest for any GB game so far this season. That's notable. The last two times a Green Bay O/U line closed below 45 pts, the Over went 2-0 & it hasn't happened since 2013. One of those two games was against the Vikings.

Honestly, if not for a leaky Packers run defense, I would consider taking them in this game. But because they are 24th in the league against the rush (116.2 YPG) while giving up 31 running plays of 10+ yards, it does not look like a favorable matchup w/ Adrian Peterson here.  The Vikings offense is coming off its second best game of the season, in terms of points (30) and they gained their most total yards in four weeks.  Peterson ran wild LW against the Raiders for 203 yards and is averaging 143.7 the L3 games. Yes, Minnesota's defense leads the league in scoring (17.1 PPG), but it's been a long time since they faced a QB that you would even consider Top 15 in the league, let alone in the top two like Rodgers is.  10* Over Packers/Vikings

10* Over Eagles/Cowboys (8:30 ET):  Back in Week 2, these teams played one of the worst games of the entire season. Though Dallas won 20-10, at Philadelphia, you'd have to consider them "the ultimate loser" given that was the game they lost Tony Romo to injury and they haven't won since.  Whether it's been Brandon Weeden or Matt Cassel under center for America's Team, the results have been the same the L5 weeks. They did cover last week, here at home vs. Seattle, but scored only 12 points and gained just over 200 total yards in an abysmal passing effort from Cassel. It was the second time in three weeks that the offense failed to score a touchdown. Philadelphia is a surprising 6-1 Under this season, but off a bye, and there's a ton of value here considering the O/U line for that first meeting was 53. Take the Over.

This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any Eagles game to date. So far, the majority of their games this season have seen 43 or more total points scored (all but three). The first matchup w/ Dallas set the low benchmark, but there's plenty of reason to believe the Philadelphia offense will perform far better here. For starters, they gained a pathetic seven yards rushing in Week 2. Over the L3 games, they have been better committed to the ground game and the result has been an average of 172.7 rushing yards per game.  Also, not many teams have more drops this year than the Eagles' 18 and the result of that has been a poor third down percentage that ranks near the bottom of the league. That statistic is both variable and fixable. This Dallas defense isn't very good as it's allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Coming off the bye, we should see dramatic improvement from this Eagles offense compared to what we saw vs. Carolina (much better defense) and certainly from what we saw in the first meeting w/ Dallas.

The Eagles defense has actually been the strength of the team to this point in the season. But they're doing it w/ a lot of "smoke and mirrors," namely turnovers, which they've feasted off the L3 weeks w/ 10. But outside of two games, they've allowed 350+ yards every time out.  The Dallas offense does have Dez Bryant back now (huge plus) and of course has the best offensive line in the league. As bad as Cassel has looked so far, he has the pieces in place to move the ball here. There were four 10+ play drives LW vs. Seattle, three of them ending in the red zone. Had those resulted in touchdowns, not field goals, we would be perceiving this Cowboys' offense much differently right now. Four of the last five meetings in this NFC East rivalry have gone Under, but all had a O/U line north of 50 points, so we're "due" for an Over here. 10* Over Eagles/Cowboys

8* Over Rams/Vikings (1:00 ET): Similar to the Under play Thursday night on Browns-Bengals, we have a situation here where the two teams involved have combined to largely go "one way" when it comes to the total this season. Only in the case of St. Louis & Minnesota, that way is Under as they're a combined 11-3 Under this year w/ the Rams 5-2 and Vikings 6-1. Not surprisingly then, the O/U line for this matchup is the lowest on the entire Week 9 card. But despite past results, I'm seeing some solid value on the Over in this one as it will be the lowest total for either team so far this year. Both teams have offenses that can move the sticks via the ground game and while this certainly won't turn into the kind of shootout we saw last week in New Orleans, it doesn't have to w/ such a low number. Take the Over.

In the case of Minnesota, while they might be 6-1 Under (tied for top Under team in the league), a majority of their games would have landed Over this particular total. In fact, five of the last six games would have! There's been a real consistency w/ those five games seeing a total scoring range of 42 to 47 points.  Beware the Vikings' record also, as they have faced a very weak schedule to this point, arguably the easiest in the entire league.  Just consider that in the L3 games, they've faced Kansas City (1st game w/o Charles), Detroit & Chicago.  Advanced stats don't like their defense nearly as much as traditional stats might and now a unit allowing 4.4 yards per carry must go up against the sensational Todd Gurley (6.1 YPC!) and do so w/o the services of MLB Eric Kendricks (huge loss) and possibly LB Anthony Barr. That's a tall task.

The Rams too have benefited from a relatively weak schedule the past two games. Actually, "relatively" would be putting it mildly. They faced the Browns and 49ers, who might end up being the league's two worst teams by season's end.  Minnesota's offense might still be a "work in progress," but it has scored at least 20 points in all but two games this year and is now a lot better with the emergence of rookie WR Stefon Diggs (Bridgewater's favorite target). St. Louis does have the better defense of the two teams here, but it seems as if they "forget to pack it" when hitting the road as that group is allowing 380.7 YPG away from the Edward Jones Dome (6.1 yards per play) and 23.3 points per game.  8* Over Rams/Vikings

8* Under Browns/Bengals (8:25 ET):  These two division rivals have combined to go 11-3 Over on the season, which is a surprise, especially on the Cleveland side of things. The Browns are actually the top Over team in the league right now (7-1), but that's somewhat of a byproduct of consistently low totals.  A defense that has allowed 24 or more points six straight games certainly hasn't helped matters either, but fortunately Cincinnati comes into Thursday night off both their lowest scoring output & fewest yards gained in any game this season. Both of last year's meetings between these two stayed Under w/ just 27 and 30 total pts scored (both games were blowouts) and that's the way I see this one going as well. Take the Under.

The last three Thursday night games (ATL-NO, SEA-SF, MIA-NE) all have stayed Under their respective totals, though in two of the cases we have an O/U line north of 50 points. Still, the short week may mean something here and often cases it leads to sloppy offensive play. The last two weeks we've seen losing teams held to single digits on TNF.  Expecting a ton of offense out of Cleveland here w/ Johnny Manziel likely starting (play stands regardless) would be wishful thinking, even though in his lone start this year, the team produced 28 points. But one of those touchdowns came from the special teams (punt return) and two Manziel TD passes accounted for all but 48 of his total passing yardage!

The Browns played likely their worst game since Week 1 last week as they could manage only 20 points, despite forcing four turnovers, against the Cardinals. Yes, I'm including the 24-6 loss to the Rams the week prior in there as the defense actually played relatively well in that game, holding St. Louis to just 308 total yards in the lone Under for Cleveland all season. Part of the reason we've seen all these Overs for them is a high number of non-offensive TD's in their games, or turnovers setting up short fields. It's a rate that HAS to start going down. Fortunately for the Browns, Cincinnati didn't do much offensively last week either (just 6 pts through three quarters) as QB Andy Dalton played - by far - his worst game of the season. Bad games against Cleveland have been surprisingly commonplace for Dalton throughout his career as three of the four times he's been held under 100 yds passing have come against the Browns! 8* Under Browns/Bengals

10* Under Cardinals/Browns (1:00 ET): While the woefully unprepared Johnny Manziel starting for Cleveland would have made this play all the more ideal, I'm on the Under regardless as these teams have shocked me w/ the number of times they've each gone Over this season.  But lately, things have been trending in the other direction.  Arizona had gone Over in each of their first five games before Unders came through against a pair of other AFC North teams, Pittsburgh & Baltimore.  Meanwhile, Cleveland had actually gone Over in each of its first six games before LW's Under vs. St. Louis (scored only six points). This will be the highest total for any Browns' game so far this season.  Take the Under.

This isn't exactly an ideal spot for the visiting Cardinals. Yes, they're clearly the better team on paper, but they'll be working on a short week, with a bye on deck, and the early start time likely does them no favors here.  It was an early start time where I first played the Under w/ the Cardinals as they traveled to Pittsburgh and lost 25-13 two weeks ago.  On Monday night, their defense seemingly had "taken care of business," holding the Ravens to just over 200 total yards before a blocked punt set up a late touchdown and then a final Baltimore drive went 67 yards in a failed attempt to tie the game. Cleveland's offense is averaging just 21 points per game, so I don't worry here about Arizona's defense.  Rather it is the offense, which could be w/o WR John Brown (questionable), that I worry about.

There is a unifying element w/ these two teams' string of Overs, that being a bevy of non-offensive touchdowns.  In two of the Cardinals' wins, they have scored multiple non-offensive touchdowns. Six Lions' turnovers set up a number of easy scores in that game. With the Browns, their game vs. Denver wouldn't have gone Over if not for a defensive score by both sides. Last week's 24-6 loss to the Rams would have been even lower scoring if not for an early fumble return. The Browns' defense actually did its job, allowing only 305 total yards. Here, their secondary is likely to be back at full strength. But the problem remains an offense that will be even more limited than usual here due to the shoulder injury to QB Josh McCown. His main weapon is TE Gary Barnidge, but he could struggle here, not just because of the McCown injury but also due to a Cardinals defense that's holding opposing tight ends to just 40.4 YPG.  10* Under Cardinals/Browns

10* Over Vikings/Lions (1:00 ET):  All this talk of more offense in the league apparently has yet to reach Minnesota where the Vikings stand as the league's only 5-0 Under team. They are neither averaging (19.2) nor allowing (16.6) more than 20 points per game, which is a fairly remarkable achievement in the modern NFL.  Interestingly, one of their higher scoring outputs this season came back in Week 2 (26 pts) against a Lions team they'll face again this week. The Minnesota offense rolled up a season best 350 yards in that game, yet for a fourth straight time a Vikings-Lions game stayed Under the total. Not this time though.  Take the Over.

Detroit is coming off not just their first win of the season, but what was also - by far - their best offensive game of the season (546 total yards) in a 37-34 overtime win over the division rival Bears.  Over the previous three games, these Lions had faced some really tough defenses: Denver, Seattle and Arizona.  They didn't fare much better in Wk 2 against Minnesota (323 total yds), but the good news here is TE Eric Ebron is expected to be back on the field after missing the last two games. The Lions rushing attack had been dormant for the first five games, but went for 155 yards on 32 carries last week, which is hopefully a sign of things to come. Also of note is that offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi moved to the press box last week and that seemed to have a positive effect on the playcalling. 

Minnesota's offense seems to lack an explosive capability, but you have to figure that RB Adrian Peterson will improve upon last week's dismal showing when he carried the ball 26 times for only 60 yards, including a horrific first half when his 16 carries led to only 17 yards.  In Wk 2 vs. the Lions, however, he went for 134 yards on 29 carries and no player since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger has a higher average of rushing yards per game in division games than Peterson's 113.7.   The Vikings' passing game seems to be improving as second year QB Teddy Bridgewater threw for 140 yards in the first quarter LW vs. the Chiefs and rookie Stefon Diggs replacing the ineffective Charles Johnson as a starting receiver seems to have paid dividends. The bottom line here is that Minnesota is "due" for an Over. 10* Over Vikings/Lions

8* Under Broncos/Browns (1:00 ET):  Even with some key defensive personnel potentially out on both sides here, I think points will be at a premium.  In case you haven't been paying close attention, Denver's identity has completely flipped w/ the defense now doing the "heavy lifting" and Peyton Manning and the offense are simply "along for the ride."  I believe this Denver defense to be the best in the league right now and the stats bear that out as they are allowing the fewest yards per game (278.0) and have also forced a league-high 14 turnovers.  Most importantly, they come in allowing an average of just 15.8 points per game. A Cleveland team which is just one of two to start 5-0 Over is due for a low-scoring game. Take the Under.

Few saw Browns QB Josh McCown coming.  I know I didn't.  Last week, he threw for a franchise record 457 yards in an overtime win over the Ravens.  Needless to say, I am calling for a decrease in production, across the board, from Cleveland this week.  It should start early as the Broncos have yet to allow a single first quarter point this season.  While the potential absence of DeMarcus Ware looms large, take note that the Broncos league-leading 22 sacks have come from 11 different players. So I believe the will still be able to generate pressure on McCown and when they do, look for the Cleveland QB to struggle as opposing QB's have a 52.5 passer rating against the Broncos when they bring pressure, third lowest in the league. This Denver defense is also allowing just 3.46 yards per play on first down (tops in the league by 0.5 YPP!) and they are #1 on third down as well.

Meanwhile, Manning and the Broncos' offense continues to struggle mightily.  They didn't score a single touchdown last week (2nd time this year!) and were held under 300 total yards.  The good news is that Cleveland's secondary is banged up and down two key starters (Joe Haden, Tashaun Gibson). But is Manning even able to take advantage any longer?  What I anticipate is that Denver will try to get its run game going. The problem there is they are 30th in the league in yards per game (71.6) and this game is likely determined how they fare against the league's 31st ranked rush defense.  Don't discount that this is an early start time for Denver as well. 8* Under Broncos/Browns

10* Under Cardinals/Steelers (1:00 ET):  Arizona, along w/ Cleveland (surprise!), is one of two teams to open the season by going Over in each of its first five games.  They certainly have feasted on some cupcake opponents, though. Wins over New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco and Detroit (collective 5-16 SU) have come by an average margin of 25.5 points per game w/ the team topping 40 points three times.  Week 6 brings a much tougher test in my opinion, in the form of Pittsburgh, who is 4-1 Under to this point. Since losing to New England in the season opener, the Steelers have held every opponent to 23 pts or less and remember the Cards were held to 22 in their lone loss (at home to St. Louis). Take the Under. 

Now, how the Steelers were able to pull off their win Monday night is a head-scratcher to me. Under the direction of Mike Vick, this offense has really struggled.  They've averaged just 162.3 passing yards per game with Vick and were downright anemic for 3.5 quarters last week vs. the Chargers.  Their 349 total yards are somewhat misleading when you consider that 152 of them came on the final two drives, 72 on one play, a long TD pass to Marcus Wheaton on a busted coverage. They had just three points at halftime and 10 after three quarters. The week previous, they gained just 253 total yards against a Baltimore defense that has been routinely torched this season and their lone second half score was basically set up by a turnover. Excluding a kneeldown, Pittsburgh's offense had seven drives of four plays or fewer. Five times they went three and out while gaining three yards or less! Vick finished the game w/ only 124 yards passing on a paltry 4.8 yards per attempt.  So, I don't think the Arizona defense will have a very "tough day at the office" here.

Though Arizona scored 42 points last week, they gained only 345 total yards and attempted just 18 passes! How does that happen, you ask? Well, how about SIX Lions' turnovers. The offense actually opened w/ a pair of three and outs last week. Remember that their previous 40+ point effort (against the 49ers) was also greatly aided by turnovers, namely two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. This many non-offensive scores cannot be sustained.  I should also mention how the loss of C Pouncey for the Steelers is huge. 10* Under Cardinals/Steelers

10* Under Bears/Chiefs (1:00 ET):  This is a matchup of the league's two worst defenses, in terms of points per game allowed, but I'm going w/ the Under anyway. For Chicago, the defense was expected to be bad. In Kansas City, it's a major surprise. Their stop unit was one of the best in the league a year ago, holding 11 of 16 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Fast forward to this year and they've now allowed 30+ points in three consecutive games. They are now 4-0 Over this season.  But let's look at those last three opponents, shall we?  They were Denver, Green Bay (in Lambeau) and a red-hot Cincinnati club. All of a sudden, the defensive "woes" don't look so bad. At the same time, neither offense here impresses me that much.  Take the Under.

Last week, I took a winless Bears team and they rewarded my faith in them w/ an outright 22-20 win over the Oakland Raiders, as a home dog. They're not getting much of a chance here, even though QB Jay Cutler is back, replacing the horrible Jimmy Clausen. With Cutler under center, the team has been far more competitive, however all they could manage last week in the second half was a pair of field goals. A majority of Cutler's passes traveled five or less yards downfield. But he did benefit from a big day from Martellus Bennett, the tight end, a position the Raiders have really struggled against in 2015. Cutler still may be w/o WR's Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal (questionable) here. 

Additionally, the Chiefs' one true strength defensively plays well for them in this matchup. That strength is rushing the passer and Chicago's offensive line has been horrible for some time. On the other side of ball, though, Kansas City isn't exactly adept at throwing the ball downfield.  QB Alex Smith remains far too conservative for my liking. Furthermore, the offense, despite 461 total yds last week, continuously bogged down in the red zone, which resulted in SEVEN field goals (not three touchdowns) for 21 points.  Actually, four of those field goals were 40 yards or longer, so it was slightly before the red zone that they grinded to halt, more often than not. Kansas City's own offensive line has issues, having allowed a league-high 19 sacks.  10* Under Bears/Chiefs

Note: Matt Hasselbeck has been announced as the Colts' starter. The play still stands.

10* Over Colts/Texans (8:25 ET): Obviously, we're dealing w/ the "unknown" here when it comes to the Colts' QB situation, but regardless I like this one to finish Over the total. Indianapolis is facing a Houston defense that just gave up 48 points last week in an ugly loss in Atlanta.  While the Texans' offense has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season (they have their own QB issues), I see them setting a new season-high here against a Colts' defense that up until last week hadn't been playing very well at all. Remember that two weeks ago, Indy gave up 33 points in a wild road win over Tennessee. The Under may be 7-2 the last nine meetings between these two, but this is a lower number than either of LY's two matchups. Take the Over.

It's only Week 5 and already Texans HC Bill O'Brien has been flip-flopping quarterbacks.  Brian Hoyer came into the year as the anointed starter, but that didn't last long as he was pulled in favor of Ryan Mallett in the very first game! Hoyer got called back into action last week when the team was way down to the Falcons. But it will be Mallett getting the starting nod here and that's probably for the best.  Arian Foster quietly made his return to the field last week and he needs more touches here as in eight career games vs. the Colts, he's averaging 120 YPG on 6.0 yards per carry and has eight touchdowns. Because they fell behind so quickly at Atlanta, the Texans really couldn't establish Foster. The previous week, without Foster, they ran for 186 yards in their only win this season.

Obviously, we want Andrew Luck on the field here for the Colts.  But if veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck is called into duty for a second straight week, then that's fine too.  Hasselbeck completed 30 of 47 pass attempts last week.  While that game finished w/ a final score of just 16-13 (w/ OT), the Colts' third Under of the season, their defense actually gave up over 400 yards.  Houston has just four wins all-time against Indianapolis (in 26 games) and a big reason for that is the Colts have scored at least 23 points in 20 of those contests. They'd scored at least 25 in four straight before a 17-10 win at the end of last season. I expect a high scoring game. 10* Over Colts/Texans

8* Under Ravens/Steelers (8:25 ET): When you think of the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, you think of tough, low-scoring games. But, somewhat surprisingly, the Over is 6-3-1 the past 10 matchups and in two of the three last year (remember, they met in the playoffs), the winner scored at least 30 points.  Even more surprising is that the Over is 11-4-2 the past 17 meetings here in Pittsburgh.  But then again, maybe all this shouldn't be surprising given how prolific the Steelers' offense has been in the past w/ QB Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. Therein lies the issue Thursday, however, as it won't be Big Ben under center for the Steelers, but rather Mike Vick and on a short week, in a new system, I don't expect much from him. Take the Under.

Baltimore is 0-3 and desperate. Though no consolation to them, they easily could be 3-0.  In every game, they had a lead late in the second half. Though defense has clearly been an issue the L2 games w/o Terrell Suggs, the offense is not w/o blame itself.  The opening game vs. Denver actually saw NO offensive touchdowns scored on either side. The L2 games have both seen a dramatic increase in scoring, but note LW vs. Cincinnati, it was a 14-0 game at the half and only 14-7 going into the fourth quarter! Heck, it was only 14-10 w/ just under seven minutes remaining and then both teams scored two touchdowns each to inflate the scoring. I'm still not convinced that the Ravens' offense is "out of the woods" yet, however, as one of their TD's again came from the defense.  Also, the Under is 8-1-1 following a game where QB Joe Flacco throws for 250+ yards passing.  With Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme off to Denver, the Ravens have had issues establishing the run w/ Justin Forsett.  In general, Flacco seems to be lacking weapons, save for WR Steve Smith.

Even with Roethlisberger on the field for the majority of the game, Pittsburgh scored only 12 pts last week. Once Vick took over, they did next to nothing, gaining just 49 yards total on four drives, none of which lasted longer than four plays. The only three points they scored after the Big Ben injury was set up by a Rams turnover. Again, I just don't expect much from Vick here at all. His work in a backup role last season in New York left a lot to be desired as he completed only 52.9 percent of his pass attempts and his QBR (ESPN stat) of 21.4 was the worst in the league among all QB's w/ at least 100 pass attempts.  This is his first year in the offense and a short week does him absolutely NO favors here. 8* Under Ravens/Steelers

8* Under Chiefs/Packers (8:30 ET): Green Bay isn't shy about scoring at home.  They scored at least 30 points at Lambeau Field in seven of eight regular season games last year, four times topping 40 pts. For the year, they averaged a whopping 39.75 points per game at home.  Now that we've got that out of the way, it's time to make the case for the Under. This sure seems like a classic letdown spot for the Packers as they are coming off a high-profile, revenge spot last Sunday night over the Seahawks.  They scored "only" 27 points in that win. While clearly a case could be made that "it's the Seahawks," note they were w/o safety Kam Chancellor and the Rams scored more against them the previous week. Kansas City has a strong enough defense to keep this game close - and low-scoring. Take the Under.

Both of the Chiefs' games so far have gone Over, but last week was clearly a "bad beat" for Under bettors. With under a minute remaining and a 24-17 lead on Denver (at home), the Under was still in play. But then they gave up a game-tying touchdown and then lost the game on a horrific Jamaal Charles fumble. There were actually two defensive scores in that game, one by the Chiefs, something that certainly cannot be counted on every game. Save for that last drive, the KC defense did its job last week as they held the Broncos to only 299 total yards. Opponents are struggling to run the ball thus far against the Chiefs (just 159 yds total), whose pass rush is also making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

Kansas City was kind to Under bettors in 2014, going 11-5.  The pass rush I just spoke of (eight sacks already) should have another big game tonight going against a Green Bay offensive line that's without its best player, Brian Bulaga. For the Packers, QB Aaron Rodgers is currently surrounded by a lot of skill position players that aren't 100 percent.  The one real negative w/ this Chiefs team is that on offense they lack a certain explosive capability in the passing game. QB Alex Smith is simply subpar at throwing the ball downfield. Unless Charles is ripping off long runs, it will take long, sustained drives for the team to put points on the board. 8* Under Chiefs/Packers

10* Over Redskins/Giants (8:25 ET):  Washington has played a couple of low-scoring games to this point (L 17-10, W 24-10) while for all intents and purposes, the Giants should be 2-0 Under as well (opener vs. Dallas went Over on GW drive). Despite this, and the fact that the Under has cashed in six of the past seven matchups between these two, I like the Over Thursday night.  This is a low total by today's NFL standards, especially when you consider the O/U line for both of the Giants' first two games closed at 50+ points. It's also relatively low when you look at the past history between these division rivals as every O/U line for those past seven matchups closed higher than what we currently have here. Take the Over.

I feel that the Giants are due to break out offensively. They gained almost 400 total yards in last week's 24-20 loss to Atlanta.  Odell Beckham Jr had seven catches for 146 yards, including a long touchdown, but was curiously silent down the stretch. Remember that in his one game vs. the Redskins defense last year, he had a monster performance w/ 12 catches and 143 yards w/ three touchdowns.  When the Giants were w/o him in the earlier season meeting, they still scored 45 points as Eli Manning threw five touchdown passes.  So this offense has certainly found success against this Washington defense in the past and I see no reason why it shouldn't happen again Thursday.

Now, the one concern for the Giants this week lies in the secondary where they could be short-handed. Top cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie has a concussion and its unlikely he'd be cleared on a short week. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has yet to throw for more than 210 yards this season, but should pass that benchmark here. We may not end up needing many points from the Redskins offense anyway, if this game goes as I anticipate.  Also, the Over is a perfect 5-0 the L5 times Washington has been off an ATS win and 9-4 following a game where they allowed 15 points or fewer.  The Over is also 5-2 the L7 times the Giants have been off an ATS loss. 10* Over Redskins/Giants

10* Under Jets/Colts (8:30 ET): The Colts were held to only 14 points (shut out 1st half) in a surprising loss to the Bills this week and I think this matchup w/ the Jets presents a lot of the same problems for them. They will be going up against yet another stout front seven, so while the expectation will be for Andrew Luck (14-1 SU/ATS off a loss in his career) to bounce back, I think Indy could struggle yet again offensively.  As for the Jets, I wouldn't look for them to come close to matching the 31 points they scored last week against the Browns as that was somewhat of a byproduct of five Cleveland turnovers. What I look for instead is a pretty low-scoring, defensive-minded, matchup on Monday night.  Take the Under.

This would be a pretty high total for the Jets.  The highest closing total for any of their games in 2014 was 47, which happened a total of three times. The Under was 2-1 in those three games w/ the Jets averaging only 17.6 points per game.  In Week 1, three of the Jets' four TD drives were 30 yards or less, thanks to being set up by multiple Browns' turnovers.  It's unlikely that the enjoy such great fortune in B2B weeks. If they do find offensive success, it will come via running the ball (179 yds LW), but that likely means less explosive plays and the clock will be running.  From the Jets perspective, I think this total represents an overadjustment by the oddsmakers following a surprising Over in Week 1.

As for the Colts offense, they will likely struggle to run the ball again against a Jets' defensive front that is as good as any in the league.  Against Buffalo, Indy ran for just 64 yards and while some of that was falling behind, they averaged less than four yards per carry. The new acquisitions, WR Andre Johnson and RB Frank Gore, did next to nothing last week for the Colts, who were held scoreless in the first half. Turnovers were a problem as well with three. Seeing as the Jets forced five TO's last week, this doesn't exactly seem like an ideal matchup for the Colts' offense to get back on track.  The Jets held Cleveland to just 104 yds on the ground and that number is somewhat misleading in the sense that the Browns' leading rusher was actually QB Johnny Manziel w/ 35 yds.   10* Under Jets/Colts

10* Over Patriots/Bills (1:00 ET):  Since the start of last season, Buffalo has been the top Under team in the entire NFL, going 3-14 O/U in their 17 games. On the surface, that makes perfect sense as it's a team w/ a great defense and, at least on paper, an anemic offense. They just got done holding Andrew Luck and the Colts to all of 14 points in a shocking opening week win here at home, but now comes an even bigger test, that being Super Bowl Champion New England. While new Bills HC Rex Ryan has had some previous success vs. the Patriots, the bottom line is that since his first season w/ the Jets, the Over has cashed in 9 of 11 games where a Ryan defense has faced a Patriots offense. For New England, this is a very low total.  I'm on the Over.

After a slow start in the season opener, the Pats had no problem moving the ball against Pittsburgh, particularly when targeting matchup nightmare Rob Gronkowski. They made 26 first downs for the game and excluding an end of half situation scored a touchdown on four of six drives at one point before simply choosing to protect a two score lead. Looking at last season, there were only four instances of a Patriots' total being 46 pts or less.  Three of them went Over; the other was the meaningless regular season finale against these Bills (rested starters) where they were "held" to a season-low nine points. I'd pretty much disregard that result right there. In the first matchup w/ Buffalo, the Pats racked up 37 points and nearly 400 yards total offense. This is a team that scored 30+ points in half of its games last season.

This will be a much tougher challenge for Buffalo than Indianapolis was in Week 1, at least defensively.  Gronkowski didn't suit up against them in the second game last year, but still has 9 TD's in seven career matchups. On offense, I think QB Tyrod Taylor surprised a lot of pundits (myself among them) w/ a 14 of 19 day for 195 yards, including a long touchdown pass.  New England's secondary is not close to being what it was a year ago and will be more susceptible to giving up yards in 2015.  Also, the Bills' O/U record is due to start "evening out." The Over is 6-2 the L8 meetings between these two. 10* Over Patriots/Bills

10* Under Giants/Cowboys (8:30 ET):  The expectation here is a shootout.  I have actually gone on record and said that I expect the NFC East to feature a series of shootouts in 2015. With the exception of Washington, every team has an offense that is much further along compared to the defense. But this is also a high total for the 1st game. Granted, each of the last five Giants-Cowboys meetings have gone Over as have the last six here in Dallas.  But aren't all trends meant to be broken?  It helps that this total is higher than any of the previous five meetings.  Therefore, I'm on the Under Sunday night. 

No team ran the ball better than Dallas in 2014.  Much of that was owed to the league's best offensive line. But there's an issue with the running game entering 2015, that being who will actually be running with the ball. DeMarco Murray is gone to Philadelphia and left in his wake is a committee approach. It remains to be seen if that will be effective.  Last year, the Cowboys averaged 137.5 yards per game rushing against the Giants.  I do not believe they will approach that number Sunday night.   

  Eli Manning is poised to have a big year for the Giants. It's his second year in OC Ben McAdoo's system.  But he does not yet have a full compliment of receivers as it's looking more and more that Victor Cruz will miss this game. Expect Odell Beckham to still make a few big plays, but the onus will now be on Manning to force the ball to him. That likely leads to less consistency moving the ball.  Perhaps, the G-Men will turn to a more "ground and pound" approach themselves, which of course chews up clock and means less time of possession for the opponent.   The Under is 4-0-1 in Dallas' last five home games, by the way.  10* UNder Giants/Cowboys

8* Over Titans/Buccaneers (4:25 ET): This is a battle of the #1 and #2 overall picks from May's draft, both QB's, Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay and Marcus Mariota for Tennessee. I suppose the expectation is for each to struggle as they obviously went to teams that were really bad in 2014.  But w/ neither team's defense being particularly great either, don't be surprised if this game turns into a little bit of a shootout.  Because Tampa Bay was 11-5 Under a year ago (7-1 at home) and Tennessee 10-6, we're able to take advantage of a pretty low O/U line, in fact, it's currently tied for second lowest on the entire Week 1 board, just a half-point ahead of Seattle-St. Louis. All we need are six touchdowns in four quarters of play! Take the Over.

Tampa Bay had the worst offense in the league a year ago.  A major reason for that was the play at QB, from both Josh McCown and Mike Glennon.  Enter Winston, who is an immediate upgrade at the position.  While offensive line remains a question mark (starting two rookies), Winston does have some good talent to work w/ at the skill positions. His job will be much easier if RB Doug Martin gets back to the level he was at a few years ago. One player that I expect to have a big game Sunday is WR Vincent Jackson, especially if Mike Evans doesn't go. However, with a rookie QB, mistakes are going to be made. Of course, that applies to both sides in this game. I can imagine there being some turnovers in this game, which in turn leads to easy points for the other team.

Tennessee's offense was also terrible last year as they averaged only 15.9 points per game, fewest in the league.  But they too are set to improve on that side of the ball, if for only the fact it can't possibly get any worse.  Defensively though, the issues remain.  The Titans allowed nearly 30 PPG on the road last season. Both teams, in fact, allowed more than 25 PPG overall.  I just don't see this being the "snoozefest" that others might be projecting and Mariota & Winston will both play well enough to help push this one past the total.  8* Over Titans/Buccaneers

8* Under Steelers/Patriots (8:30 ET): Finally, this game has arrived and we can stop talking about deflated footballs (though I'm sure you can expect to hear plenty of that during the course of the game from the commentators).  Looking at the actual matchup, we have two playoff teams from a year ago, one of them the defending Super Bowl champion, both w/ prolific offenses.  But these season openers tend not to be all that high-scoring and given Tom Brady's in flux status throughout the preseason, plus the fact the Steelers will be w/o bellcow RB Le'veon Bell, I don't see this game being as high scoring as expected. Note that none of the L10 meetings between these two teams had seen an O/U line higher than this one. Take the Under.

If you were smart enough to be the Patriots when Brady's status was in doubt (line was -2.5), then allow me to "tip my cap" in your direction. But as much as the public expectation is for New England "to roll" here, I'm not quite as convinced. Brady spent about as much time in the courtroom as he did the practice field over the course of the summer and I would expect his rhythm to be off somewhat entering the season. Much will be made of Brady's dominance of the Steelers here in Foxborough, but I remain unconvinced that we'll see the same dominant Patriots offense that we're accustomed to seeing here. Brady is on the downside of his career and will be w/o at least one key weapon, that being WR Brandon LaFell, not to mention I'm not sure who the starting RB on this team will be. Like the Steelers, they will be w/o their starting center as well.

Speaking of being w/o key personnel, that is the story here for the Steelers, who won't have Bell, WR Martavis Bryant or C Maurkice Pouncey. Thus, an offense that was #2 in the league last year won't be operating anywhere near full strength tonight. Quietly, New England's defense allowed an average of just 17.2 points per game last season here at home.  Interestingly, the three games Pittsburgh played on turf last season were all pretty low scoring (42.6 PPG), particularly in the first half (19 PPG). I look for a relatively low scoring season opener. 8* Under Steelers/Patriots