9* Under Bengals/Chiefs (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. I also don’t think this game will be as high scoring as the original. 

The O/U line closed at 51.0 for the regular season meetings. It’s predictable that the number for the rematch is a few points higher and that the majority of bettors are on the Over. Especially since the last seven Chiefs’ games have all gone Over. But, every Bengals game since the win over the Chiefs has gone Under the total. They could barely muster 300 total yards against the Raiders in the Wild Card Game and the offense frequently fizzled against a defense that was last in red zone efficiency. Last week, the Bengals managed only one touchdown in the win over the Titans and got 10 points off turnovers, including the GW FG.

On the bright side, one of two touchdowns allowed by the Bengals’ defense last week came on a short field. Stopping Mahomes will obviously be more difficult. But - with just two minutes left in regulation against the Bills - the Chiefs had “only” 26 points. The Cincinnati defense is only allowing 16.9 PPG on the road, which is why the Under is 7-2 in those games (just 42.3 PPG total scored). The Chiefs allow only 19.5 PPG at home where the total number of PPG scored is 48.5. I see value with the Under here. 9* Under Bengals/Chiefs

8* Under Bills/Chiefs (6:30 ET): The Bills offense played nearly perfect football vs. New England in the Wild Card Round. Against a top five defense (#2 in scoring), they scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end in a kneel down. Before backup QB Mitchell Trubisky came in for “kneel down duty” at the end of the game, Buffalo had 480 total yards on 51 plays. I really respect this offense, but repeating last week’s performance will be impossible.

Kansas City dominated in the Wild Card Round as well. Don’t be fooled by them allowing 21 points either. One of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was from the defense. In the first half, the Steelers’ offense never crossed midfield and had just 40 yards on 26 plays (excluding kneel down). That was reminiscent of the stretch in the regular season when the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in six straight games. At home this season, they are allowing just 17.9 PPG. The Chiefs will NOT keep the Bills in check like they did the Steelers, but I do see KC’s six-game Over run coming to an end here.

These teams met in the regular season, here at Arrowhead, with the Bills winning 38-20. That included a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Take that away and the game would have stayed Under. Note the Chiefs only scored 20 points. Buffalo has the league’s top scoring defense at 17.0 PPG allowed and even on the road they allow only 17.5.  This game will be lower-scoring than expected. I know that it seems risky, but take the Under. 8* Under Bills/Chiefs 

8* Under Rams/Buccaneers (3:00 ET): So these teams met in the regular season. The Rams won 34-24, but that was at home. It was a turnover free game (for both sides) where the Rams - at one point - scored on six consecutive drives. The Bucs didn’t exactly have problems moving the football either, but they missed a field goal and turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter. For a variety of reasons, I don’t see the rematch being nearly as high scoring. Take the Under.

The Rams were 34-11 winners over Arizona in the Wild Card Round. That included a defensive TD (thanks to an atrocious decision by Kyler Murray), which pretty much put the game away. While Matt Stafford getting his first career playoff win grabbed the headlines, don’t discount what the Rams’ defense did to the Cardinals. They held them to just 183 total yards (just 3.4 yards per play), most of that coming when the game was already well in hand. Holding Tom Brady and company in check like that might seem unrealistic. But the Rams’ defense has now had seven straight games of holding opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. That was the number they held TB to back in Week 3.

The Bucs were 31-15 winners on Wild Card Weekend, easily dispatching of the Eagles. But while the final result was never in doubt, take note that TB was actually outgained on a per play basis. Some of that has to do with all of the points and most of the yards allowed by the defense coming in the 4Q. Going into the fourth, Philly was scoreless and had less than 200 total yards. But still, Brady and the offense gained just 4.5 yards per play and clearly benefited from a muffed punt that led to a touchdown. 8* Under Rams/Buccaneers

10* Under Steelers/Chiefs (8:15 ET): Of the six matchups on the NFL’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend, all but one features teams that met in the regular season. This is one of those as Kansas City drubbed Pittsburgh 36-10, three weeks ago, here at Arrowhead. It’s difficult for me to envision a subpar Steelers team that was outscored by 55 points in the regular season, winning here. But this is certainly a big number to lay in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense should ensure that this rematch is at least a little closer than the original. But I’m not expecting much scoring by the road team either. 

Kansas City heads into the playoffs on a 5-0 Over run. But let’s not forget about the seven-week stretch of regular season games where they held six teams to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.1 PPG. I don’t see them really being threatened here by a Steelers’ offense that has been beyond anemic, particularly in the first halves of games this year. The Steelers are averaging just 6.7 PPG in the 1H this year. Put them on the road and that number drops to a near unfathomable 3.6 PPG! They can’t run (3.9 YPC) and barely average 20 PPG. In six of the last eight games, Pittsburgh has gained less than 315 total yards. 

Kansas City should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning here. Patrick Mahomes is 42-1 SU as the starter when the defense does NOT give up 27+ points. Clearly, I don’t see the Steelers scoring THAT many. But I do see this being lower scoring than the regular season game, which makes Under the call. The Chiefs’ offense actually put up fewer points at home (than on the road) this season and gained fewer yards, per game and per play. Five of the Steelers’ last six games did not exceed 46 points and four of those had 40 points or fewer. 10* Under Steelers/Chiefs

10* Under Raiders/Bengals (4:30 ET): When these teams met in the regular season, it was 32-13 Bengals, but that was a little bit misleading as both teams gained less than 300 total yards. I don’t see this rematch being higher scoring, so Under is a logical call here. It was only 13-6 going into the 4Q in Vegas back in Week 11. It was 16-13 with just over five minutes to go. After capping a 62-yard drive with a JaMar Chase TD, the Bengals piled on 10 more points due to two late Derek Carr interceptions. It was a somewhat misleading final.

Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow led the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. But he actually threw for a season-low 148 yards when he faced the Raiders. The Bengals’ offense had just one play of 20+ yards in that game and it was a Joe Mixon run. Burrow has been sacked a league-leading 51 times. The Raiders don’t send a ton of pressure, but as we saw last week against the Chargers, Maxx Crosby can certainly be a disrupting presence. 

I do think the Bengals will still win this game, however, and that’s mainly because I don’t expect a ton from a Las Vegas offense that is far too dependent on drawing PI calls to move the sticks. Even with a full overtime session last week, the Raiders still only gained 346 total yards. Even during their four-game win streak (four wins by a total of 12 points), their offense was just 18th in the league in yards per drive. Before last week, they had been held to 17 pts or less in five of the previous seven games. 10* Under Raiders/Bengals

analysis soon

8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals (4:25 ET): Seattle (6-10 SU) has nothing to play for here while Arizona (11-5) can still win the NFC West by winning this game and the Rams losing to the 49ers. That’s hardly the unlikeliest of scenarios and it’s tough not to expect the Cardinals to win here, given they easily defeated the Seahawks earlier in the year, 23-13, with Colt McCoy at QB. But given the fact Seattle has a +21 point differential for the season (they are better than their record), I’m not about to lay this many points here. 

The Seahawks put up 51 points in the home finale last week. Granted, that came against the Lions, but it was the third time in the last five weeks that they put up 30 or more points. Four of those five games went Over the total. Expect a much better offensive effort out of Seattle here, compared to the first meeting with Arizona, which was just the second game back for Russell Wilson after finger surgery. The Seattle offense also now has RB Penny, who is coming off a career-best 170 yard day. 

Arizona ended a three-game losing skid with a surprise 25-22 win over Dallas last week. This offense went for over 400 yards the first time it faced the Seattle defense. Again, that was with Colt McCoy under center. The Cardinals will need to continue scoring, given the defense has allowed 22 points or more in five straight games. Fortunately, they have Kyler Murray, who is set to become the first QB in NFL history with 3,500+ yards passing and 400+ yards rushing in each of his first three seasons. I see this game going Over. 8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals

8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (8:15 ET): With both teams having already clinched a playoff spot, and little chance to improve seeding, don’t expect many fireworks here on Saturday night. Certainly, this will be nothing like the first meeting, which was a 41-21 win by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Dallas will play its starters, but for how long remains to be seen. Philadelphia is dealing with a COVID outbreak and QB Jalen Hurts has an ankle sprain. So they won’t resemble the team that’s won six of seven. 

Even if Hurts does play, I don’t see the Eagles doing much offensively, even though the Cowboys are thin at linebacker. Certainly, Philly is going to want to keep it conservative in preparation for next week’s road playoff game (likely against Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay). Philly may lead the league in rushing, but their RB group is very thin right now. My expectation here is that by the second half you’ll have Gardner Minshew at QB with a third-string RB. That could be the dynamic for the entire game, honestly. 

The Dallas’ offense has declined in recent weeks - with one notable exception - the MNF beatdown of Washington. But that was at home. The Cowboys’ points per game average dips dramatically on the road, all the way down to 23.5 from 36.4 at home. Fortunately, their defense is allowing only 19.4 PPG in road games. The Eagles defense, while not exactly facing a slew of great QBs, has held its last five opponents to 14.8 PPG. The key here is that scoring should come to a grinding halt after halftime. 8* Under Cowboys/Eagles

10* Under Browns/Steelers (8:15 ET): After the events of Sunday, the Browns are eliminated from playoff contention. The Steelers basically are as well. So it’s all about “pride” Monday Night. Cleveland has revenge for a 15-10 home loss on Halloween, which dropped their all-time record vs. Ben Roethlisberger to a woeful 3-24-1. This will almost certainly be Big Ben’s final home game in a Steelers uniform and I’m sure his teammates will want to send him off with a win. Given how poorly these offenses have performed much of this season, I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

I won with the Under in the Browns’ game last week, which ended up being a 24-22 loss in Green Bay. Embattled QB Baker Mayfield played horribly, tossing four interceptions. As discussed in the analysis for that X-mas Day play, the Browns’ offense had previously been held to 17 points or less in seven of nine games. Excluding defensive TD’s, they’ve topped 22 just twice since Week 3. Luckily, the defense has kept the Browns in many games this season. It has allowed 24 points or less in eight of the last nine games and has allowed 16 points or less in half the games this season. 

It’s not a great Pittsburgh offense anymore. They’ve failed to score a single touchdown in the first half since Week 11. Personally, I don’t think the Steelers are any good; they’ve been outscored by 70 points this year and have been behind by double digits in five of the last six games. They’ve led for about 10 minutes of actual game time in that stretch. In four division games so far, the Steelers’ offense has averaged just 13.8 PPG. But I still trust the defense. The last two home games have seen the Steelers allow just 19 and 13 points. Both of those went Under. So will this one. 10* Under Browns/Steelers

10* Over Broncos/Chargers (4:05 ET): This is the second meeting of the season between these long-standing AFC West rivals. Denver won the first, 28-13, as a 2.5-point home dog. I was on the Broncos in that spot, but it was actually a much luckier win that the final score indicates as the Chargers had the edge in total yards. Turnovers hurt LA that day, much like they did last week in a stunning 41-29 loss to Houston. Coming off a bad loss like that, I wouldn’t want to lay points with the Chargers here. But I think it’s a given they will put up more points in this second matchup. Give me the Over. 

The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Over. They’ve averaged 33.8 points in that time, but unfortunately are also allowing 29.5 PPG. So that’s an average of 63.3 total points for the four games. We don’t need nearly that many to get the Over here. QB Herbert will ensure that the offense points up points here. The Chargers are third in the league, averaging 30.3 PPG at home. But the defense remains a liability. It gives up the fourth most rushing yards per game in the league. The Bolts have allowed 140+ rush yards eight times this season and 170+ four times. 

Denver games typically go much differently as they have the highest Under percentage in the league this season and their Under percentage under HC Vic Fangio is highest in the league during that time. Drew Lock will be the starting QB for the Broncos, so look for him to lean on the running game. Again, that’s a good thing, given what I outlined above. The Broncos averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first meetings with the Chargers, a game that they finished with 28 points. Both teams should top 21 this time. 10* Over Broncos/Chargers

8* Over Jaguars/Jets (1:00 ET): I also like the Over in this game. Again, the Jaguars should score a season-high in points. There have been only two games since their bye, which was in Week 6, where the Jets didn’t allow at least 30 points. I know I talked about the Jets being short-handed when it comes to pass catchers, but considering that last week marked the seventh time this season that the Jaguars’ defense surrendered 30 or more points, the home team should have its own opportunities to score. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in football, expect little defense to be played and a surprising shootout to ensue. The Over is 4-0 in the previous meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Jets

8* Under Browns/Packers (4:30 ET): The Browns have activated several key contributors from the COVID-19 list, among them QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry. They will also have HC Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines after he too missed last Saturday’s 16-14 home loss to the Raiders. But pinning that lackluster offensive effort on all of the absences might be “wishful thinking” in Cleveland; this is a team that has been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of its last nine games. One of the two times it wasn’t was thanks to a defensive TD. The presumed return of Mayfield and company won’t necessarily lead to an abundance of scoring from the Browns here. 

Now Green Bay doesn’t have much difficulty scoring, thanks to Aaron Rodgers. While the Browns’ postseason hopes just took a massive hit with that loss to the Raiders, the Packers are already assured of a spot in the postseason and have wrapped up the NFC North. They come into Saturday at 11-3 SU having just held on to beat the Ravens last week, 31-30, when Baltimore failed to convert a two-point try.

That was the fourth straight game to go Over for the Packers and they’ve averaged 35.7 PPG themselves during that stretch. I’ll get back to that in a minute. But first, I’ve got no worries about the Packers’ defense keeping the Cleveland offense in check here. I’ve already documented the Browns’ season-long offensive struggles. It’s more than half their games that they’ve failed to score more than 17 points. Well, Green Bay’s defense only allows 17.0 PPG at Lambeau. So there’s that. But Cleveland’s defense has allowed 16 points or less in eight games this season, including six of the last eight. 8* Under Browns/Packers

10* Over 49ers/Titans (8:20 ET): San Francisco is surging and despite still only being third in their own division, they are very much in play for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Niners have won five of their last six games and last week’s 31-13 dismantling of the lowly Falcons marked the fourth time in that stretch where they scored 30 or more points. The other two games saw them score 26 and 23. Over the L8 weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo has posted the league’s 2nd best passer rating (trailing only Aaron Rodgers!) and the running game has averaged 142.4 YPG since Week 11. So expect the Niners to put up points tonight. 

Tennessee still leads the AFC South, but its once strong grip is loosening as they’ve lost three of their last four games. The division lead (over the Colts) is now down to just one game after blowing a 10-point lead last week and losing 19-13 to the Steelers. That marked the third time in the last four games that the Titans could only put 13 points on the board. But surprisingly the offense has still been able to run the ball without Derrick Henry as they’ve gone for 200+ yards on the ground in two of the last three games. QB Tannehill may be getting some help in the passing game as WR AJ Brown could return tonight. It’s been reported that Brown is “likely” to play. 

Though it’s been mostly Unders produced by these two teams in recent weeks, look for this one to go Over. The number is just too low. The Niners, who have probably the more “reliable” offense of the two teams right now, are 4-0 Over this season when the total is below 45. Brown’s return would be big for Tennessee, but even without him they should put up enough points here (for the game to go Over) as it’s been turnovers more than anything else that have limited their scoring the last few weeks. The Over is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight games as a home dog. 10* Over 49ers/Titans

8* Under Saints/Bucs (8:20 ET): New Orleans has won six straight regular season meetings over Tampa Bay. But the Saints would gladly trade those six wins in exchange for the last time they lost to the Bucs, which was the Divisional Round of last year’s Playoffs. I had the Saints as a home dog when they upset TB back in Week 8, 36-27 as 3.5 point dogs. But this time it’s a lot harder to like them, not just because the Saints are playing in Tampa (where the Bucs are a perfect 6-0), but because of their own 1-5 slide. 

Now New Orleans did end a five-game losing streak last week, beating the lowly Jets 30-9. But don’t expect them to score that many points again. The Jets are the worst defensive team in the league. It’s a big jump up in class facing a Buccaneers’ defense, which allows only 18.5 PPG at home. A big difference between now and Week 8 is the Saints’ QB situation. They still had Jameis Winston as the starter on Halloween. Now it’s Taysom Hill. The Saints were able to run for 200+ yards last week, but won’t do that here against a Bucs’ defense that is third in the league against the run. 

Tom Brady and company have been a scoring machine at home this year, averaging 37.5 PPG. The team has scored 30 or more in four straight games overall, but needed OT to hit that mark last week vs. Buffalo. The Bucs’ defense looked great for three quarters in shutting Josh Allen in the Bills down. I’ll look past what happened in the fourth quarter as they are facing a much weaker offense this week. But expect the Bucs to struggle to score in this one. The Saints’ defense is very good (only 21.9 PPG allowed). None of New Orleans’ last three games have seen more than 44 total pts scored. 8* Under Saints/Bucs

8* Over Jaguars/Rams (4:05 ET): Both the Jaguars and Rams come into this Week 13 matchup on three-game SU losing streaks. However, there are longer streaks at play as well. The Rams have failed to cover five straight games, a streak that dates back to mid-October. The Jaguars have gone Under in six straight games. I know we’re talking about one of the worst offenses in the NFL here (Jacksonville) going cross-county to face a Rams team that’s had some poor offensive outings of late. But I’ve got a “hunch” that this one is set to go Over. The Rams should score a lot of points in this game. 

The Rams scored 28 last week against the Packers. The problem is they also gave up 36. The last three games, again all losses, have seen the Rams’ defense allow an average of 31.7 PPG. While they aren’t likely to give up that many here to the Jaguars, I think they’ll still give up enough to allow this game to go Over the total.

Though they only scored 16 points against the Titans and 10 against the 49ers, there’s really nothing “wrong” with the Rams offense. As I mentioned above, they put up 28 points and 5.8 yards per play last week. Los Angeles comes into this game averaging 27.2 PPG and will be facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up 27.0 PPG on the road. These teams play only once every four years, but for what it’s worth, the Over is 4-0 the L4 meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Rams

10* Over Seattle/Washington (8:15 ET): Since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 SU and scored just 13 points. That point total is a little misleading though as Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone against Green Bay. With the season very much on the brink heading into tonight, look for Wilson and the Seattle offense to “pick up the pace” against a Washington defense that has mostly struggled in 2021. Through the first four games of the season, the Football Team had the worst third down defensive efficiency in league HISTORY! They are still giving up 26.7 PPG. 

Washington’s offense has gotten better though, specifically QB Taylor Heinicke, who will be seeking to be the first QB to throw 3+ TD passes in B2B games for the franchise since Kirk Cousins did it back in 2016. The Football Team is coming off back to back upset wins, the first a real shocker as they were 10-point dogs and beat the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers 29-19. Last week, they went to Carolina and won 27-21. Seattle’s defense was very poor at the start of the season. While it’s gotten somewhat better over the last month or so, it is still giving up over 400 YPG for the year. 

So I’m looking for this game to go Over the total. Yes, Seattle games are 8-1-1 to the Under (8-2 for some) this season, but I really do think this is the game where we start to see the “old Wilson.” As for Heinicke, he’s thrown for more than 245 yards in six of his nine games. The Over the L4 times that Washington has been off a SU win. 10* Over Seattle/Washington

10* Under Bills/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Bills and Saints come into Thanksgiving off blowout losses. In fact, the Saints have lost three straight games (first time since 2016). Two of those losses were close, but last week’s wasn’t as they fell 40-29 to the Eagles. But that was a bit of a misleading final as Philly had three scoring drives start in Saints’ territory + a pick six. Also, New Orleans had two TD drives start inside the Eagles’ 40-yard line. So the fourth straight Saints game to Over the total was pretty misleading all-around.

The Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Colts was also a little misleading. Like the Saints, the Bills also had a slight edge in yards per play on Sunday. That sounds crazy considering the scores, but it is true. Buffalo was also done in by turnovers. They had four (and didn’t force any), which led to three Indianapolis touchdown drives, two of which started deep in Buffalo territory. As for the Bills offense, there were two missed field goals, but it was also the second time in three weeks that they scored 15 points or less. That’s not good.

These two defenses surrendering 40+ points is quite uncharacteristic. In fact, the number of points allowed last week were season-worsts for both teams. The Bills defense still has given up the fewest number of total yards in the league and also ranks second in scoring (17.6 PPG allowed). Most of New Orleans’ points last week came in the fourth quarter during “garbage time” and it’s looking unlikely that they will have RB Alvin Kamara for this game. Trevor Siemian has proven to be a below-average QB. As for the Saints’ defense, the number of rush yards it allowed last week was highly uncharacteristic (though it was the second year in a row that the Eagles shredded them on the ground). Entering that game, New Orleans was #1 in the league at stopping the run. The Under has hit each of the last six years in the primetime Thanksgiving window. Make it seven in a row. 10* Under Bills/Saints

10* Under Giants/Buccaneers (8:15 ET): Tampa Bay’s defense has given up 65 points the last two weeks as the team has lost B2B games for the first time since the midpoint of last season. The good news for Bucs fans is that after suffering those B2B losses last season, the team didn’t lose another game and went on to win the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be all that confident in a similar run taking place here in 2021, but I do think at the very least the defense gets back on track Monday night vs. the Giants. 

The Giants, who are coming out of their bye week, are one of nine teams in the league that averages fewer than 20.0 PPG. It was a 23-16 win over the Raiders two weeks ago, but the touchdown that decided that game came from the defense (pick-six). Only twice in its last seven games has the Giants offense accounted for more than 20 points. Part of that has to do with RB Saquon Barkley being out, but let’s not look past the fact that Daniel Jones (0-7 SU in primetime games) is a below average NFL QB. 

One encouraging sign for the Giants is that their defense has allowed a total of just 39 points the last three games. A struggling Washington defense held Tom Brady & the Bucs offense to just 19 points last week, so I don’t see why the Giants can’t turn in yet another solid defensive effort tonight. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up only 18.5 PPG at home. Both losses they recently suffered were on the road. Including last week, the Bucs are 4-0 Under off their previous four losses. 10* Under Giants/Buccaneers

10* Under Dolphins/Jets (1:00 ET): Well, I certainly wish the Jets would have started the archaic Joe Flacco last week when I had the Under in their game vs. Buffalo. Now, maybe it would have been a “moot point” as the Flyboys scored all of seven 17 points anyway. They gave up 45 (to Buffalo) as for the sixth straight time a Jets’ game went Over the total. I’m putting my foot down again this week, saying the streak comes to an end this week against a team that’s far less explosive than Buffalo, that being Miami. Take the Under. 

I know the Jets’ defense is bad, but they probably should not have given up 45 points last week. There was a disastrous six-minute stretch to open the second half where the Bills scored a TD on their opening possession, then got two more quick touchdowns off Jets’ interceptions. It was the third time in the last four games this Jets’ stop unit gave up 45+ points, something this league has not seen since the 1966 Giants! The good news for this week is that they will be facing Tua Tagovailoa, who has an injured thumb. The Dolphins have topped 22 points just one time in their last seven games. Jets’ HC Robert Salah’s specialty is the defensive side of the ball and he’s got to get this group playing better.

But Miami’s defense probably feels pretty good about itself coming into this game. And it should, given it held Baltimore to only 10 points in a shocking Thursday night win last week. I had the Dolphins plus the points in that one and was taken aback by their performance. If they can shut Flacco’s old team down, then they can certainly shut down the 36-year old Flacco quarterbacking what is the league’s seventh lowest scoring offense (17.9 PPG). Four of Miami’s last five games have seen 43 or less total pts scored. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring division game. 10* Under Dolphins/Jets

8* Under Patriots/Falcons (8:20 ET): The “world” figures to be on New England here and I really can’t blame them. They are off a dominant 45-7 win over Cleveland where three of the TD drives went for 92+ yards. The Pats have won and covered four straight games and thanks to a couple blowouts, they are tied (w/ the Cardinals) for the league’s 2nd best YTD point differential, behind only Buffalo. Bill Belichick’s team is also a perfect 4-0 (straight up) on the road and is going against an Atlanta team that is not only 0-3 SU/ATS at home, but also off a horrendous 43-3 loss to Dallas last week. 

But I just can’t pull the trigger on a Thursday night road favorite of this size, even if my own power ratings say that it’s probably the right move. Instead, let’s turn to the total. After giving up an 84-yard TD drive on the opening possession, the Patriots’ defense held Cleveland to just 133 total yards the rest of the game. That marked the third time in four weeks that the Pats held their opponent to 13 points or less. Atlanta certainly didn’t do much offensively last week, gaining only 214 total yards and scoring just three points.

So it stands to reason that the Falcons won’t be doing much scoring here. They only average 19.8 PPG to begin with and that number actually drops at home, down to 16.3. Making matters worse for the underdog, they are without Calvin Ridley and probably Cordarrelle Patterson (game-time decision). New England’s defense is #2 overall in scoring and allows only 14.5 PPG on the road. So again, don’t expect many points from the Falcons Thursday night. Let’s just hope that it’s an off-night for the Patriots offensively. If so, this should be an easy Under, a bet that has cashed each of the L5 times Atlanta has played on Thursday night. 8* Under Patriots/Falcons

9* Over Seahawks/Packers (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. 

I know that they were facing the Jaguars, but Seattle scoring 31 points without Wilson is impressive. In three of the four games this year that Wilson has finished, the Seahawks have put up 28 or more points. So you should expect them to “carry their weight” with this Over play. I also have some concerns about their defense, which gives up more than 400 YPG and was historically bad the first five weeks of the season.

Rodgers didn’t practice all week, but the Packers have scored at least 24 points in each of his last seven starts. They average 28.7 PPG at home. Green Bay has gone Under in six straight games, but this matchup has “shootout” written all over it. The Over is 7-3 in the Packers last 10 games after a loss. The last two times that Rodgers and Wilson have met, their teams combined to score 51 total points. I expect even more than that here. 9* Over Seahawks/Packers

9* Under Bills/Jets (1:00 ET): The last five Jets’ games have all gone Over the total. That seems odd given that the Flyboys are 27th in the league in scoring at just 18.0 points per game. But they’ve put up 30+ points in B2B games, including a shocking win over Cincinnati two weeks ago. They’d scored 14 or fewer points in four of the first six games. Now the defense has been shredded the L3 games as it’s given up a total of 130 points! There hasn’t been a single game all year where the Jets held an opponent under 24 points. 

Now you would think that this figures to be another “long day at the office” for the Jets defense as the Bills pay a visit to MetLife Stadium. However, Buffalo didn’t even get in the end zone last week in an absolutely shocking 9-6 loss to the Jaguars. While I am banking on Josh Allen and company bouncing back here, the Bills defense should also handle its business. Though no one was talking about it after the loss to the Jags, the defense has now allowed 11 points or fewer four times in 2021. 

Since 2019, Buffalo is 9-1 Under when off a SU loss. That includes 5-0 after their last five losses. A banged up offensive line may mean they won’t score as many points as you think. As for the Jets offense, I know that backup QB Mike White has captured the hearts and minds of the fanbase, but consider me still skeptical. The Bills haven’t allowed any Jets player to run for 100 yards since 2016. Expect that streak to continue here. This is the highest O/U line in any Jets’ game this season. 9* Under Bills/Jets

8* Over Packers/Chiefs (4:25 ET): Well, some of the luster of this matchup has certainly been lost, eh? Not only is Kansas City just 4-4 SU on the year, but Green Bay is going to play without Aaron Rodgers, who has tested positive for COVID-19. This comes on the heels of an improbable Packers’ victory last Thursday (24-21 at Arizona) where the team was without its top three receivers. Yes, it’s VERY tempting to want to fade GB here (especially because they are on a 7-0 ATS run). But believe it or not, I can’t trust the lousy Chiefs defense laying this many points. So I’ll call for another streak to end - the Pack’s 5-0 Under run. 

Kansas City is a horrible 4-15 ATS its last 19 games. They did not cover Monday night when they beat the Giants 20-17, nor did they really come close to as 10.5-point favorites. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ last three wins have all been against the NFC East. Last week was the second best defensive effort of the season so far, but KC has allowed 27 or more points six times in 2021. Now, with Rodgers out, can the Packers score that many? Jordan Love, a former 1st round pick, will be the starting QB and he’ll have those top three receivers (Adams, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling) back. So maybe they can. 

I also have to think that this Chiefs’ offense is due to start scoring more. In three of the last four games they’ve been held to 20 points or less. That’s shocking. I love how much the O/U line has dropped with Rodgers out and think there’s some real nice value on the Over now. Truthfully, I was thinking about taking the Over anyway in this matchup (had Rodgers played). His absence must be accounted for, but I like the Over on a lower number just as much as I did the Over on the higher number with Rodgers in there. 8* Over Packers/Chiefs

8* Under Jets/Colts (8:20 ET): The Jets are 2-5. That WL record is not nearly as surprising as the two teams that they beat, the Titans and Bengals, who are a combined 11-5 SU. Both Jets’ wins have been by exactly three points (34-31 over Cincy LW and 27-20 over Tennessee in Week 4) and represent their two highest scoring games of the season. The win over the Bengals saw the Jets score 2 TDs in the final five minutes while the win over the Titans required OT. Both wins were also at home. The Jets are still 30th in scoring (16.3 PPG). What I’m saying is that, as a road underdog this week, they probably aren’t going to score many points. 

Now recent Colts’ games have been high-scoring. Indy is off a painful 34-31 OT loss to the Titans where they blew an early 2 TD lead. That leaves them at 3-5 SU overall and three games off the pace in the AFC South. It’s actually more than a three-game disadvantage they face in the division as they’ve now been swept by Tennessee. Carson Wentz and the offense have scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, but that’s not a streak I see continuing here. It’s interesting that over the L2 weeks, the Colts have averaged just 301 total yards per game. 

Two touchdowns in the Jets’ game last week vs. the Bengals were scored after drives that started inside the 15-yard line (one for each team). Backup QB Mike White was a nice story for the Jets last week, but I don’t really trust him in his first career road start. After allowing just 21 points total the previous two games, the Colts defense performed better than you think last week. One of Tennessee’s TDs came on an INT return. Of course, Indy also benefited (early in the game) from a turnover, which allowed them to start a TD drive inside the Titans’ 10-yard line. 8* Under Jets/Colts

10* Over 49ers/Bears (1:00 ET): Holding an Over ticket in my hand last week, I felt pretty good at halftime of the Bears-Bucs game. Tampa Bay had just scored its FIFTH touchdown of the first half to go up 35-3. All I would need in the second half was 10 points. I got three. Probably my most frustrating defeat so far this NFL season. But I’m going to “go for it again” this week as the Bears (now 6-0 Under L6 games) host the 49ers in a battle of two NFC teams that are absolutely desperate for a victory.

San Francisco has lost four straight games. Being in the same division as the Cardinals and Rams, the Niners can pretty much “kiss goodbye” any chances of winning the NFC West. Remember that at one time they were 2-0 and looking like a lock to be one of the most improved teams in the entire league (finished 6-10 SU LY). But the bottom has dropped out, mostly because of injuries. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned last week, but the offense could only manage 18 points in a rain-soaked loss to the Colts on SNF. I do think they’re set to do better here, especially if Khalil Mack can’t go for the Bears.

Rookie QB Justin Fields, who everyone wanted to see play, has been thrown to the wolves in Chicago. It doesn’t help that Matt Nagy is looking more and more like a “lame-duck” head coach. But I think Fields and this much maligned Bears offense can find some success this week against a 49ers defense that has given up 28 or more points in three of its last four games. This is a REALLY low total for 2021, especially considering SF is 5-1-1 Over the L7 times it has been road chalk. 10* Over 49ers/Bears

8* Under Colts/49ers (8:20 ET): I’d like to think that, coming off a bye, San Francisco will be ready to roll here. But this team has not been good as a favorite under HC Kyle Shanahan, going just 8-19-2 ATS including 2-7 SU the last nine times they’ve been laying three points or more. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his return, there are still a litany of injuries this team is dealing with. It’s not like Garoppolo was all that effective before getting injured anyway. He completed only 62% of his passes the L2 starts with two interceptions. 

Meanwhile, it was an 0-3 start for Indianapolis this season and things were looking bleak. But the Colts have turned it around a bit by winning two of the last three games and going 3-0 ATS. Honestly, they probably feel like they should also be 3-0 SU over that stretch as they blew a big lead against Baltimore on MNF and lost that one in OT. Thanks to playing the Texans last week, it was an easy bounce back and the defense did its job, holding Houston to only three points. 

The last time the 49ers beat the Colts was 2001. Obviously, you can count and know that was 20 years ago. But considering that was the game that inspired Jim Mora’s infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Who knows if either of these teams can get back in the playoff race in 2021. But what I do know is that Sunday night should be a low-scoring game. 8* Under Colts/49ers

10* Over Bears/Bucs (4:25 ET): If Justin Fields thought going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was tough, wait until he gets a hold of Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. This should be Fields' toughest matchup as a pro. I just can’t see the Bears being able to trade points with the Bucs. But I do think they can score enough to help send this one Over the total. The Bears’ last five games have all gone Under. A matchup with a top three scoring offense should change that. Take the Over. 

The Bucs have not faced a good offense since suffering their only loss, 34-24 to the Rams. Since that loss, they’ve beaten New England, Miami and Philadelphia. Yet only that New England game, which was a highly emotional affair (Brady’s return to Foxboro), saw less than 50 total points scored. Other than at New England, Tampa Bay games have averaged more than 60 PPG this season! All three of their home games this season have gone Over. 

Brady will not have to worry about one of Chicago’s top pass rushers (Robert Quinn) as he is on the COVID list. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in every home game so far and twice gone over 40. Obviously, I’m expecting a lot of points from them today. But I also expect their defense to give up a surprising number of yards in the passing game to Fields. Before going up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last Thursday, the Bucs had allowed at least 262 yards passing to every opponent. If the Bears get to 20, which they should, then this is an easy Over. 10* Over Bears/Bucs

9* Over Bengals/Ravens (1:00 ET): I can understand why the “sharp money” seems to like the Under in this matchup. It’s a divisional game, which means the teams are familiar with one another. Also a Cincinnati team that is 5-0 Under its last five games has been held to just 19 points in its last three meetings with Baltimore. However, this is a much better Bengals team in 2021. They come in at 4-2 SU and just put up a season-high 34 points last. While that was against the lowly Lions, there’s been only one game all year when Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. I’m on the Over. 

The Ravens scored 34 points last week in what was the most impressive wins I’ve seen from anybody this NFL season. They crushed the red-hot Chargers, holding Justin Herbert to just six points. But this Baltimore defense has been kind of “Jekyll and Hyde.” While there have been three times they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less (Lions, Broncos, Chargers), there have also been three times they’ve given up 25+ points (Raiders, Chiefs, Colts). Where there’s no mystery is on the offensive side of the ball at home. In three home games, the Ravens have averaged 33.7 PPG and topped 30 every time. 

I already mentioned how the previous three meetings between these teams have seen the Bengals not score many points. The same cannot be said about the Ravens. They’ve averaged 38 PPG in those three matchups! Here at home (see above), I have full confidence in them scoring a bunch of points on Sunday. Cincinnati should be able to stick with them though as the Ravens’ defense is allowing 277 yards passing per game. Joe Burrow is a lot better now than when he faced the Ravens as a rookie. He has Ja'Marr Chase to throw to as well. 9* Over Bengals/Ravens

10* Over Broncos/Steelers (1:00 ET): Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to the Ravens and did not practice Wednesday. He is questionable to play here, which means it could be Drew Lock starting in his place. Lock’s career ATS record (11-7) pales in comparison to that of Bridgewater (who is 38-15 ATS as a starter), so that would be a downgrade going up against what is still regarded as a very good defense in Pittsburgh. But that Steelers’ defense is also pretty banged up at the moment. 

Denver’s 3-0 SU start came against teams that are currently a combined 2-10 SU (Giants, Jets, Jags). They were somewhat exposed in last week’s 23-7 loss to the Ravens. I find it interesting though that the Broncos, who were the only team in the league not to be favored in a single game last season, could end up being favorites for a fifth consecutive week here. They are in a much better position than Pittsburgh, who has lost three in a row after opening the season with an upset win in Buffalo that now feels like a distant memory. The Steelers look like they could be headed for their 1st losing season under Mike Tomlin. 

There are only four teams in the league that are 4-0 Under and these are two of them. Given that, the injuries and “iffy” QB situations on both sides (Big Ben has been BAD), I understand why this O/U is so low. But I feel it’s too low. You’re just not going to see many NFL totals of 40.0 or lower this season. Two of the Steelers’ last three games would have exceeded this total. Look for this game to sneak Over the total, somehow, someway. Both teams have key injuries in the secondary. 10* Over Broncos/Steelers

8* Over Panthers/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Dallas is a last-second FG away from being 3-0. Since losing 31-29 to the Bucs on Opening Night, America’s Team has bounced back with wins over the Chargers (on a last second FG) and the Eagles Monday Night. The offense is coming off a 41-point effort and has run for an average of 179 yards in its two wins. You can’t forget about QB Dak Prescott either. He threw for over 400 yards against Tampa Bay. As expected, the Cowboys are very good offensively. 

Carolina is 3-0 SU for the first time since 2015 when it made the Super Bowl with Cam Newton as MVP. Like Dallas, the Panthers are also 3-0 ATS. Their defense is #1 in the league in yards allowed and #2 in scoring. But they’ve been fortunate to face two rookie QBs (one a backup) and Jameis Winston. This will be - by far - their toughest assignment of the young season. The team has gone Under in six straight games dating back to last season. But I see that streak coming to an end here. 

The Panthers will be without RB Christian McCaffery. However, QB Sam Darnold is off B2B 300+ yard games as he looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his career. The Cowboys’ defense gives up over 400 yards per game, so even without McCaffery, the Panthers should move the ball and score. They would seem to have an advantage due to being off a “mini-bye” (played last Thursday) while Dallas played on MNF. But Prescott has averaged 347 yards passing his last three times playing on a short week. 8* Over Panthers/Cowboys

10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Sometime during the course of today, you’ll probably hear that seven of the NFL’s eight primetime games have gone Over the total. I had the one Under, which was Thursday’s Carolina-Houston game. There have been a lot of high-powered offenses featured in these primetime games, which makes sense as that is who the NFL wants on national TV. But when I think “high-powered” I don’t necessarily think of the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles. I’m taking the Under on MNF. 

The Cowboys have a high-powered offense, but here they’ll be facing an Eagles’ defense that has surrendered a total of 23 points in two games. Philly is allowing just 4.4 yards per play and 283 yards per game. The teams they’ve faced - Atlanta and San Francisco - certainly aren’t terrible offensive teams. Both games also stayed Under. Going back to the middle of last season, the Under is 9-3 in the Eagles’ last 12 games. I think this defense can do a good job of holding Dallas in check tonight. The Cowboys only scored 20 points in last week’s win over the Chargers. 

This is Dallas’ 1st home game of the season and they’re hoping the recent trend continues of the home team dominating this NFC East rivalry. The home team is 5-0 SU the L5 meetings. I think the Cowboys defense is going to play better than expected tonight. Hurts only completed 12 passes last week and just one to a WR after the 1Q. The Eagles have not scored more than 23 points in any of the previous four meetings with the Cowboys. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys

10* Under Texans/Panthers (8:20 ET): Houston is going into Thursday night with a backup QB, Davis Mills, who I saw Sunday and wasn’t the least bit impressive. Just the third QB to be drafted out of Stanford in my lifetime, the rookie played the entire 2H vs. Cleveland and completed just 8 of 18 pass attempts for 102 yards and a touchdown. Now, on a short week, he’s going to be facing a much better defense and it’s really difficult to envision a scenario where the Texans put up a lot of points. 

Carolina is a surprising 2-0 after holding New Orleans to seven points and 128 total yards on Sunday. Remember that the Saints put up 38 points, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes, in Week 1 vs. Green Bay. So that was a really impressive performance last week by Matt Rhule’s defense. This is the first time the Panthers have ranked #1 in the league in total defense since Week 10 of the 2017 season. Thus far they have given up an average of just 190 YPG and a total of only 21 points. 

But with Sam Darnold as their starting QB, there’s still questions about this Carolina offense. The Panthers have covered seven straight road games, but are also 0-6 ATS their L6 Thursday games, so something will have to give here. On the same note, the Panthers are 5-0 Under their L5 regular season games while Houston is 4-0 Over its L4. Considering how few points I expect the Texans to score here, Under has to be the call as you’ve got a rookie QB making his 1st career start (on a short week!) against the league’s top rated defense. The Over is 6-0 in NFL primetime games so far this season. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Texans/Panthers

8* Under Raiders/Steelers (1:00 ET) My Under bet Monday night looked pretty solid for three quarters. There were only 27 points scored between the Ravens and Raiders, a matchup where the oddsmakers’ total was a lofty 50.5. But then came a deluge of 4Q points with the teams doubling the scoring. By the time overtime was needed to settle things, the game had already gone Over. It was the sixth straight regular season game to go Over for Las Vegas, the longest active streak in the league right now. That’s going to be tested this week as they are matched up against one of the better defenses in the league. 

The Steelers pulled out a surprise 23-16 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The game got off to a rocky start for the Black & Gold when they allowed a long return after the opening kickoff. But they held the Bills to just a field goal on that drive and would allow only one TD the entire game. That was a very good offense they faced, much better than what they’ll see here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s offense remains a bit of a concern with an aging Ben Roethlisberger behind center. They gained only 252 total yards vs. the Bills and the only offensive TD that they scored came with good starting field goal position. 

RB Josh Jacobs is out for the Raiders this week, so it’s going to be difficult to move the ball on the ground. Not that I would expect them to be all that effective doing so, even with Jacobs on the field. There was major turnover with the LV offensive line this offseason and we all saw what the Steelers’ defensive front was able to do to Bills QB Josh Allen last week. A short week and early start time do the Raiders no favors either. However, they have had the Steelers’ number in recent years, covering six of the last seven meetings with five outright upsets. So let’s go with the Under as neither team will move the ball all that effectively. 8* Under Raiders/Steelers

10* Over Giants/Football Team (8:20 ET): So with last week’s 27-13 loss to Denver, the Giants have now gone Under in eight consecutive games (dating back to last season, obviously). But this week’s total is even lower than Week 1 and as you can see, the G-Men and Broncos were very close to going Over the total last Sunday. They would have gone Over had both teams not fumbled inside the red zone. The Giants’ fumble proved especially costly as they were only down 17-7 in the second half when QB Daniel Jones gave the ball away. Jones did throw for 267 yards though and account for two scores.

Washington is already on its second starting QB as Taylor Heinicke will replace Ryan Fitzpatrick. This move comes not by choice, but rather because of injury. Fitzpatrick will miss as many as eight weeks due to sustaining a hip injury in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. I thought, given the circumstances, that Heinicke performed admirably last week. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Remember that he started last year’s playoff game against Tampa Bay. While the Football Team went down to the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Bucs that day, 31-23, don’t blame Heinicke. He actually threw for 300+ yards in the loss. The Giants’ defense he faces this week isn’t as good as the Bucs .. or the Chargers for that matter. 

Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday. Given the Giants’ history against Washington, maybe they don’t even need him. They’ve beaten their old division rival five straight times, the last four all coming with Jones as the starter. Jones has thrown for eight touchdowns in the four wins. Look for him to develop more of a rapport with WR Kenny Golladay, who had four catches for 64 yards last week. Based on them allowing 400+ yards last week against the Chargers, I think it’s fair to say this Washington defense may not be as strong as it was a year ago. These teams are a combined 14-4 their L18 TNF games. 10* Over Giants/Football Team

10* Under Ravens/Raiders (8:15 ET): Over the course of training camp, no team was hit harder by injuries than Baltimore. The running back position in particular has suffered some incredible attrition. It began with JK Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Then Dobbins’ backup Justice Hill suffered an Achilles injury. With their two top running backs done for the year before a meaningful game had even been played, the Ravens next turned to Gus Edwards. Guess what? He too suffered a serious knee injury in practice Thursday, the same day that CB Marcus Peters also sustained a knee injury! 

With all these injuries at the RB position, there will be tremendous pressure on QB Lamar Jackson to produce this year. Being that he is a former MVP, it’s not like Jackson is doomed. But Jackson and the offense took a step back in 2020 despite facing a relatively weak set of pass defenses. They dropped down to 27.3 PPG overall and 25.2 on the road. Had it not been for a high success rate on third downs and in the red zone, the offense's numbers probably would have dropped even further. With Ty’Son Edwards and Le’Veon Bell set to be the Ravens’ only available running backs, that dimension of the offense simply will not be as strong as it was in years’ past. 

Las Vegas will finally get to play in front of fans in Allegiant Stadium (opened last year) Monday night. QB Derek Carr might have a 4-2 SU record on MNF but has posted a 46.0 QBR in those games, which is well below average. One area that I am not really worried about Baltimore is on defense. They allowed only 18.5 PPG last year. The Raiders’ receiving corps is not very good and the running game will probably be worse in 2020 due to the loss of three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. Yes, the Over was 13-3 in LV games last season. But now it’s 2021 and things will be different. 10* Under Ravens/Raiders

10* Over Bears/Rams (8:25 ET): The Rams went Under in every home game last season (8-0). But with an offense that should be better and a defense that is likely to be worse (compared to last season, that is), I look for that streak to come to an end in Week 1 vs. the Bears. Matthew Stafford is now the QB1 for the Rams, replacing Jared Goff. This is a clear upgrade in my eyes. Stafford lost RB Cam Akers to an injury in the preseason, but the Rams have averaged 32.2 PPG in four season openers under HC Sean McVay. Even with the Bears’ defense being well regarded, look for the Rams to put up points on SNF. 

Bears HC Matt Nagy has made the curious decision to go with Andy Dalton as his starting QB for the season opener. Everyone in Chicago wants to see Justin Fields, but they’ll have to wait apparently. Dalton’s career record in primetime may not be good, but I do think the Bears will score more than expected in this game. That may sound strange considering the Rams had the top ranked defense in the league a year ago. But down the stretch last season, Nagy got his offense humming. They scored 30+ points in four straight games, something that no other Bears team had ever done and that was with Mitch Trubisky playing quarterback. 

This is actually the fourth straight season that these teams will be playing in primetime. The home team has won every time with the Rams holding a 2-1 SU/ATS series edge. All three games have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 34 total points scored. But it’s a new season with new players and I really think it’s going to be different this time around. I don’t think either defense will be as good as last year. The Rams lost four starters on that side of the ball to free agency. The Bears’ secondary is a real weak spot and remember Stafford knows this team well. 10* Over Bears/Rams

8* Under Chiefs/Bucs (6:30 ET): So when these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 961 yards and all nine scoring drives went for at least 64 yards. Both offenses averaged 7.5 yards per play. Yet they finished with only 51 total points. That’s still a lot, but wasn’t enough to go Over a total of 59.0. While the stakes are much higher the second time around, the total is lower. But it’s still the second highest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The only one larger was four years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons. That game would have stayed Under had it not been for the Pats rallying from a 28-3 deficit to force overtime. Since ‘95, no SB w/ an OU line of 54.0 or higher has gone Over in regulation (5-0 Under). 

This game is being played in the Buccaneers’ home stadium. That doesn’t mean as much as it would in a “normal” year, but it’s worth noting the Bucs averaged fewer points per game at home than they did on the road this season. Those eight games averaged 52.4 PPG. Chiefs’ road games averaged more total points than their home games (54.6 PPG), but that’s still just below the O/U line here. Going back to the regular season matchup (which was here in Tampa), the Chiefs scored 17 first quarter points and Tyreke Hill had 13 catches for 269 yards. None of that will happen again. 

The Bucs are #1 in the league against the run and their defense really dominated the Packers up front in the NFC Championship Game. Like Green Bay, Kansas City is dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Obviously, everyone is going to expect a shootout on Sunday and will want to bet the Over, but like last year I’m going Under. The last two Super Bowls have gone Under. The Under is 22-9 since 2015 in Tom Brady starts where the total was 50+.  8* Under Chiefs/Bucs

9* Under Bucs/Packers (3:05 ET): Tampa Bay was able to eradicate some regular season “demons” last week, upsetting New Orleans 30-20 in the Divisional Round. I had the Under, which won by a far narrower margin (total closed at 53), and am now 2-0 in Bucs’ games this postseason. In the Wild Card Round, I faded them, laying a big number at Washington. Now they go from facing a team they lost to twice in the regular season to one that they defeated (albeit at home). Back on October 18th, the Bucs were my 10* Game of the Month as they crushed the Packers 38-10 as a 2.5-point home dog. 

You wouldn’t have known Green Bay was facing the best defense in the league last week as they rolled up 32 points in a two-touchdown victory over the Rams. Aaron Rodgers directed the Packers offense to 484 total yards, although the game was close (25-18) until he hit Allen Lazard with a 58-yard TD pass with just under seven minutes left. The Packers have now won seven in a row, scoring 30 or more points in all but one of those victories. Unlike the game in Tampa back in Week 6, they absolutely deserve to be favored here.

I was tempted to go with the Bucs this week, but considering they were underdogs at home for the first meeting, it could be argued that the value is on the other side of this NFC Championship Game matchup. Plus, as happy as I was to cash my 10* Game of the Month in October, that game was dramatically impacted by turnovers as the Bucs had a rare “pick-six” off Rodgers and a second INT was returned to the GB 2-yard line, setting up another easy TD. You could say the same about turnovers impacting last week’s win over the Saints where they forced FOUR, three of which were almost immediately converted into touchdowns as they started in “plus territory”. (They kneeled after the 4th, a drive which also started in Saints territory). But at the same time, it can’t be discounted that this Bucs’ defense (which is #1 in the league vs. the run) held GB to a season-low 201 total yards in that first meeting. It’s expected to be cold with a 50% chance of snow Sunday afternoon in Lambeau. 9* Under Bucs/Packers

8* Under Bucs/Saints (6:40 ET): The two regular season meetings between these teams produced 57 and 41 points. New Orleans won both handily, 34-23 and 38-3. The amount of scoring that took place in the first meeting (which was all the way back in Week 1) was a bit misleading when you consider the Saints got a defensive TD (pick-six) and two other scoring drives began inside the 35-yard line following TB turnovers.That’s why I took the Under in the rematch on November 8th, which cashed easily. The O/U line isn’t much different here and while the final score may not end up as lopsided, the number of total points will be similar. 

Going into that second meeting, New Orleans had a 7-0 Over record on the season. Since then, they’ve gone Under in 7 of 10 games including last week’s 21-9 Wild Card win against Chicago. The only TD the Saints allowed came on the final play of the game, a “garbage time” score if there ever was one. They held the Bears to just 239 total yards. While the Bucs’ offense is clearly superior to that of the Bears, note that two of the Bucs’ three lowest yardage games this season came against the Saints. They averaged just 252 YPG in the two losses. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, New Orleans is top five in total and scoring defense this year. 

But Tampa Bay has a good defense too. In fact, they are #1 in the league at stopping the run, which comes in handy when facing Alvin Kamara. While they won easily, it’s not like the Saints’ offense was moving up and down the field last week. They’ve been held below 300 total yards four different times this season and three of those were with Drew Brees starting under center. One of them was in Week 1. The Saints’ last four playoff games have all gone Under.  These teams are obviously familiar with one another and I expect a relatively low-scoring third meeting. 8* Under Bucs/Saints

10* Under Browns/Chiefs (3:05 ET): The expectation here is for this to be a very high-scoring game. Just look at the total. It’s not only the highest of the weekend, but has a good shot to close as the highest total for ANY Divisional Round matchup in history! Even for the Chiefs, the current number would be the highest for any game this season. This is all due to Cleveland’s shocking performance last week where they upset the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh. But as I’ll get into, there were plenty of “extenuating circumstances” that led to that high score. I believe this number is simply too high and I’m going Under. 

Last Sunday was quite a special night in Cleveland. The Browns won their first playoff game in more than a quarter century and did so in improbable fashion. They were up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter! How could that happen? Well, simply put, the Steelers imploded. On the very first play from scrimmage they snapped the ball into the end zone, allowing the Browns to recover and score a TD. After that, Ben Roethlisberger threw two 1Q interceptions, setting the Browns up in “plus-territory.” One drive began on the Steelers’ 15-yard line. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is not going to play as poorly as Big Ben did. Also, the Chiefs’ defense is pretty good! They allow just 22.3 PPG at home. 

While no one expects the Browns’ offense to duplicate LW’s performance, there is (rightly) some concern about the defense’s ability to stop Mahomes. Fortunately, they will be getting back two defensive backs - Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson - from the COVID list. The fact the Browns gave up so many yards passing last week is a bit misleading as Pittsburgh had no choice but to pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have not scored more than 33 points in any of their previous six games and the last time Mahomes was on the field, they scored just 17 against a not good Falcons defense. The Under isn’t just 15-7 the Browns L22 after scoring 30+ their previous game, it’s also 21-10 if they gave up 30+ in their previous game. 10* Under Browns/Chiefs

10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. 

When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new.

The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints

8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season.

You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993.

I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots

8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. 

Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. 

Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers

10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! 

That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over.  But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference.

Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks

9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now.

What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league.

Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders

10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. 

Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. 

This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals

8* Over Patriots/Dolphins (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams.

A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB. Belichick has won 11 straight against rookie QBs, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins have far more success on the offensive side of the ball here than they did in that first meeting. They put up 27 points last week vs. Kansas City. Of course, they also gave up 33 (despite forcing four turnovers). The Patriots figure to run the ball a lot here as they were successful doing so (217 yards) back in Week 1. This is a really low O/U and I see the Pats’ 5-game Under run coming to an end. 8* Over Patriots/Dolphins

10* Over Saints/Eagles (4:25 ET): Well, isn’t this the contrarian play? Even getting more than a touchdown at home, it feels as if the Eagles are getting too MUCH respect this week as they send out Jalen Hurts to make his 1st career NFL start against what might be the league’s best defense. The QB change, precipitated by the horrendous play of Carson Wentz, was needed. It’s a tough spot for Hurts, no doubt. But here’s the thing. What if he’s good? Certainly he can be no worse than Wentz was over the last month or so.

New Orleans doesn’t have many problems these days. They are 10-2 SU and in the driver's seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Even without Drew Brees, the Saints continue to hum along as they’ve won nine in a row, the last three coming with Taysom Hill as the starting QB. Brees is reportedly close to returning, but there’s no rush considering the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS WITHOUT him in the lineup the L2 seasons. The offense should score plenty here as they’ve run for 436 yards the L2 weeks. I certainly expect the Saints to score in the neighborhood of their season average of 28.9 PPG. 

So this is the lowest total on the board Sunday, which can’t be all that surprising with a rookie QB going against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns and 44 total points in the L5 games. Plus these teams have combined to go Under in 11 straight games. But I believe the Saints can do virtually all the “heavy lifting” here and won’t be surprised if the Eagles score more than expected. Hurts is a bit of an “X-factor.” If New Orleans allows just 20 points here - and that is their season average - we should be in really good shape. I’ve waited all week to try and hit this number at its nadir, so here we go. 10* Over Saints/Eagles

10* Over Patriots/Rams (8:20 ET): This particular play definitely flies in the face of results, both recent and long-term. The Under is 5-0 in Rams’ home games this season with their defense allowing an average of just 15.0 PPG. The Under is also 4-0 in the Patriots last four games overall. The Under is 6-2 in both teams’ last eight games. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, let’s concentrate on the game at hand. The Rams scored 38 last week while the Patriots scored 45. Those were season-highs for both teams.

Now the Patriots definitely got a “boost” from their special teams & defense, both of which scored a TD last week vs. the Chargers. They also got a long punt return that set up a field goal. Obviously, I do not expect New England to score 45 points again this week. The key is I don’t expect their defense to play as well. The Over is 4-1 the Patriots L5 games after holding the previous opponent to 15 points or less. The Rams offense averages nearly 400 YPG and 6.0 YPP. QB Jared Goff threw for 351 on yards on Sunday, completing 37 of 47 passes. Going into last week, the Patriots defense was 31st in the league (2nd worst), allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I expect another big offensive game from the Rams. 

New England flat out shocked me in their dismantling of the Chargers. The offense may not have been THAT impressive, but it did go for 165 yards on the ground. The Rams’ defense has been pretty good at stopping the run lately, but hasn’t really faced an offense that runs the ball well, let alone a QB like Cam Newton. This could end up closing as the lowest O/U for a Rams game all season. The only “competition” would be games vs. the Giants and Washington (w/ Dwayne Haskins), two inept offensive teams. 10* Over Patriots/Rams

8* Over Eagles/Packers (4:25 ET): Seeing as how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just put up 41 on a very good Bears defense, they should have little difficulty scoring plenty of points here against the sinking ship known as the Eagles. Philadelphia dropped to 3-7-1 SU w/ a home loss to Seattle Monday night. That 23-17 defeat saw them pull off one of the great “backdoor covers” of the season with a TD + 2 pt conversion in the closing seconds (closed +6.5). That made it three straight games where the Eagles have scored exactly 17 points. They’ve got to be due for some more scoring, right?

As it turns out, Philly’s last five games have all stayed Under. But that includes two games vs. the Giants (who are 30th in PPG), one vs. Dallas (who was starting Ben DiNucci) and lousy weather in Cleveland. I was a bit shocked to see the Eagles hold the high-scoring Seahawks to just 23 points Monday night. They were particularly stout against the run (gave up only 76 yards on the ground). But on a short week I don’t see them having much success against Rodgers, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in his last 23 regular season games.

Rodgers and this Packers offense average 31.7 PPG and have gone over 30 in 8 of their 11 games. If they were to hit that season average (certainly plausible), then we won’t need much scoring from the struggling Carson Wentz. The only Green Bay game in the last six weeks to stay Under came against Jacksonville. When these teams played last year, the Eagles won 34-27 (at Lambeau!), led by Jordan Howard’s 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Howard was just activated from the practice squad this week. This one will sneak Over. 8* Over Eagles/Packers

9* Under Jaguars/Vikings (1:00 ET): Last week saw Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Carolina 28-27. The game-winning TD came in the final minute as the Vikings are now 5-6 SU on the year. They also had to overcome B2B fumble return for touchdowns to get the win last week. It’s actually quite impressive to win a game when you give up multiple defensive scores. It also means that the amount of scoring from that game was a bit misleading. With the Over now 6-0 in Minnesota home games, this total is pretty high and it’s a good time to bet the Under as they’re facing an opponent that’s bottom five in scoring.

I’m actually a bit surprised to see how much scoring Jacksonville has done lately. They’ve hit 20 in four of the last five games, the lone exception being a date with Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense, who held them to three points. Mike Glennon is now the starting QB for the 1-10 Jags, losers of 10 straight.. While his 1st start since 2017 went “okay” last week, Glennon was a bit lucky to be in position to tie the Browns late in the game. The Jags scored a late TD after a pretty questionable roughing the passer call to pull within two. Obviously you know they missed the subsequent 2-point conversion attempt.

Two of Jacksonville’s scoring drives last week totaled 44 yards. So they were probably lucky to score 25 points. They probably won’t be as lucky this week facing a Vikings defense that allowed only one touchdown last week and 10 points that weren’t off turnovers. Only two of Jacksonville’s last nine games have seen more than 52 total pts scored and the Under is 2-0 for them this season when the O/U line is above 50.0. 9* Under Jaguars/Vikings

9* Under Chargers/Bills (1:00 ET): I realize this is a “total” contrarian move with the Chargers having gone Over in each of their last seven games and the Bills doing so in their last three. But it’s a high number. For the Chargers, the team that has gone Over in seven straight, there’s a chance this O/U line could close as the highest for any game so far this season. (It’s been as high as 54.5 at some shops earlier in the week). There’s been only one previous Chargers’ game this year where the O/U line closed north of 50.

There have definitely been some “extenuating” circumstances helping these Chargers’ games go Over of late. For instance, each of the last two weeks they’ve had a punt blocked after their first possession! Both times the punt block led to their opponent scoring a touchdown. Despite that occurrence, it looked liked the game vs. Miami two weeks ago was still going to Under. But LA scored a “garbage time” TD in the final two minutes to send it Over. Last week against the Jets, the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Plus there was a safety at the end of the game.

Buffalo is off its bye week. They probably needed it considering the manner in which they lost to Arizona the prior week (Hail Mary). The Bills are more used to these high totals. But they are not immune to a poor offensive game. Before busting out against the two NFC West teams (Arizona, Seattle) the L2 games, they’d scored 24 or less four straight games. The Under has cashed the last five times the Bills have been off a SU loss. Also, the Chargers are 39-19-1 Under the L59 times they’ve been off a win. 9* Under Chargers/Bills

8* Under Texans/Lions (12:30 ET): I also like this Texans-Lions game to stay Under the total. While I do believe the Lions’ offense is going to bounce back from last week’s dreadful effort, the bar for “improvement” is low. They averaged just 3.4 yards per play in the shutout loss and gained fewer than 200 yards total. Those numbers will be way up this week vs. a Houston defense that not only ranks 2nd to last in yards allowed, but also just gave up 6.6 yards per play to New England. Still, it won’t be enough for this game to turn into a shootout. 

Houston’s offense has become pretty one-dimensional, failing to go over 100 yards rushing in four of its last five games. They got enough Deshaun Watson last week to overcome the Patriots 27-20, but that was still an Under. Two week ago, the Texans could only score 7 points in Cleveland (admittedly poor weather conditions), but it’s worth noting this offense is averaging just 22.7 PPG for the season. The Lions’ defense was a bright spot last week as it held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG.

All four Lions’ home games have gone Over so far, but there’s a good chance this one has the highest closing line. They too are averaging just 22.7 PPG this season, the same number as the Texans’ offense. On the other side of the ball, the last two week have seen this Lions’ defense allow just 10 total points in the first half. The Texans’ defense, while still pretty bad, has allowed just 10 and 20 points its last two games. 8* Under Texans/Lions

10* Over Rams/Bucs (8:15 ET): So the Rams have gone Under in six straight games. That’s not easy to do in today’s NFL. The defense has been great, allowing 16 points or less in four of those six games. And no longer can you say they’ve just been capitalizing on a slew of poor offensive teams. Last week, they held high-powered Seattle to just 16 points, which was a season-low for the Seahawks. Just to illustrate how impressive last week’s defensive performance was, Seattle has scored at least 28 pts in every other game this season. But LA is about to be tested again here as they face Tom Brady & the Bucs Monday night. 

It was two weeks ago that Tampa Bay got embarrassed here at home in a 38-3 loss to the Saints. That was on the heels of another sub-par effort in primetime, which they won, but only 25-23 as 13-pt favorites against the Giants. So a lot of people were questioning this team as it made the trip to Carolina last week. But Brady and company silenced the doubters with a truly dominant effort. They crushed the Panthers 46-23 and were +357 in yardage. It was the 4th time since the start of October that the Bucs scored at least 38 points in a game. They come in averaging nearly 30 PPG (29.6), sixth most in the league. 

The Rams are 4-0 Under at home this year. But this game is in Tampa Bay. It’ll be their fifth time in the last nine weeks playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Not only does the number of points per game the Rams allow go up on the road (to 23.2), so does their own scoring average (up to 26.4). That’s the key here. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times the Rams have been an underdog w/ four of those games taking place on the road.  The Bucs averaged 7.1 yards per play last week. This may not be the shootout we got from these teams LY (55-40 Bucs win!), but we only need half that number of points to go Over here. 10* Over Rams/Bucs

8* Under Packers/Colts (4:25 ET): Green Bay barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville last week. This is a team that thrived in close situations a season ago, going an extraordinary 9-1 SU in one-score games. That’s how you end up w/ a 13-3 SU regular season despite a rather pedestrian +63 point differential. Though just nine games, this year’s Packers have already outscored opponents by 53 points as they are averaging more than 30 points while turning it over only 5 times (second fewest). So you can definitely make a case that they’ve improved rather than regressed.

But here the Packers are going to be up against perhaps the stingiest defense in the entire NFL. The Colts rank 1st in total defense coming into this game, allowing just 290.4 YPG. They are #2 against the pass, #3 against the run and #4 in scoring. Last week they held the high-powered Titans below 300 total yards and to just 17 points. Don’t forget the last time Green Bay faced a defense ranked near the top of the league. That was Tampa Bay, who held them to just 10 points and 201 total yards. As great as he is, this probably won’t end up as a stellar game for Aaron Rodgers. The Colts defense has allowed the second fewest TD passes (11) and the lowest passer rating in the league.

Indianapolis winning so comfortably against the Titans is owed to a TD that came off a punt block. So they “really” only scored 24 last Thursday. Speaking of special teams touchdowns, the Packers allowed one - a 91-yd punt return - LW vs. Jacksonville. So their defense “really” only gave up 13 points. That’s a week after allowing just 17 (to San Fran) with most of that scoring coming in “garbage time.” The Under is 16-5 in Indy’s last 21 games vs. teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Packers/Colts

10* Under Jets/Chargers (4:05 ET): So let’s try this one again. I had the Under in the Chargers game last week. Unfortunately, they had a punt blocked, which gave Miami an early touchdown. From there, at the end of the game, the Chargers would go on to score a “garbage time” TD (were down 15) to officially push the game Over. It was their sixth straight game to go Over the total. Five of those games have ended up being one-score losses, four of them seeing LA blow a double-digit lead. Fortunately though for this week, the Chargers get to host the winless Jets, who are easily the worst team in the league this season.

Last week marked the first time all season that the Jets didn’t lose a game. That’s because they didn’t play. Last time we saw Adam Gase’s team was two Mondays ago when they almost beat the Patriots. That 30-27 loss was their second-highest scoring game of the season. I wouldn’t go expecting a repeat of that this week. The previous four games all saw the Jets score 10 points or less. They average a league-low 13.4 PPG (nearly 6 PPG fewer than the next worst team) and also last in yards per game (266.0), 34.9 fewer than the next worst team.. They have been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of their nine games this season.

So we can count on the Jets not scoring much here. What about the Chargers? Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played better than most expected, even if the performance hasn’t translated into wins. But I expect a conservative offensive game plan this week from the all-too conservative Anthony Lynn. I think it’s fair to say last week’s game against the Dolphins probably shouldn’t have gone Over. Miami was able to get 13 points by driving a total of 30 yards and also had a 32-yard TD drive. Before the loss to New England, four straight Jets’ games had stayed Under. I just think the Chargers are due for an Under and this is the perfect opponent for it. The Under is 15-7 when LA is favored. 10* Under Jets/Chargers

9* Over Seahawks/Rams (4:25 ET): I have been skeptical of the Seahawks all season, mainly because their woeful pass defense remains a huge liability. It cost them last week as they gave up 44 points and 415 yards passing to Josh Allen and the Bills. While that was only their second loss of the season, Seattle is getting outgained on the year (despite Russell Wilson) and has now given up more passing yardage in eight games than the famed “Legion of Boom” defense did the entire 2013 season! The Over is 6-2 in Seahawks games this season with the fewest total number of points scored being 53. 

The Rams, who are off their bye, are not the opponent Seattle wants to see right now. Since Sean McVay took over, Los Angeles has averaged more than 30 PPG against this Seahawks’ defense, which has never been worse than it is right now. Keep in mind that Jamal Adams returned last week and Seattle still got torched. LA lost two weeks ago to Miami 28-17 (which was my 10* NFL Game of the Year -- on Miami!), but actually outgained the Dolphins more than 3:1 in the game (471-145). I fully expect that with an extra week of preparation the Rams offense is going to put up a big number here against a defense that is last in yards allowed and 30th in scoring.

The Seahawks’ defense is currently on pace to allow the most passing yards EVER in a NFL season. The Rams’ Jared Goff has thrown for at least 290 yards in the last four meetings. Adams might be back, but he was terrible last week, and both Seattle corners are now banged up. But Seattle still has a chance here because of Russell Wilson, who leads an offense that is averaging 34.3 PPG. The Rams have gone Under in five straight, but those games were against the Giants, Washington, San Francisco, Chicago and Miami. The Seahawks are a much different opponent with Wilson having seven touchdown passes of 20+ yards this season. 9* Over Seahawks/Rams

9* Under Chargers/Dolphins (4:05 ET): Miami has turned into a real success story as they’ve gotten to 5-3 SU by winning four straight games. They’re 4-0 ATS as well during the win streak. But as much as I want to pull for them, they have been outgained by 456 yards since Tua Tagovailoa became the starting QB. They’ll have a special place in my heart due to being my 10* NFL Game of the Year two weeks ago and they beat the Rams 28-17. But the truth is that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year. The Dolphins were actually outgained by more than a 3:1 margin (471-145) in that contest!

Tua looked a lot better last week in leading a 34-31 upset over Arizona (on the road). But the ‘Fins were still outgained in that game by over 100 yards. The big story for Miami these last two weeks has been non-offensive touchdowns as they have THREE of them, two on defense and one punt return. Against the Rams, they also started a drive inside the five-yard line. So Tua really hasn’t moved the ball as well as you might think and the fact the team is averaging 31 PPG w/ him as the starter is a total mirage. On the flip side, I really like the Dolphins defense, which is allowing just 20.1 PPG this season, 4th fewest in the league. 

While Miami is on the rise, the Chargers can’t seem to get out of their own way. Last week was another close loss as all six defeats this year have been by seven points or less. That’s the most one-score losses in the first eight games of a season - ever! I’d love to say this is where they turn things around, but my power rankings actually say the value is on Miami here. But with the Dolphins’ recent scoring being a bit of a mirage and LA being 5-0 Over its L5 games, my call is that this ends up being a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone Under! 9* Under Chargers/Dolphins

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): Despite an unheard of four-game losing streak in Foxboro, I don’t think the Patriots should be written off just yet. They easily could have beaten Buffalo on the road last week. While certainly not up to the caliber of past Bill Belichick teams, this one is closer to average than the 2-5 record suggests. Facing the winless Jets Monday night, I think the offense gets back on track and starts to resemble what we saw earlier in the year in games against Seattle and Las Vegas. The pointspread is too high, so Over is the call Monday night. 

Statistically speaking, the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the league. They are in the bottom 7 in both yards and points allowed. Last week’s 35-9 loss to the Chiefs saw KC elect not to run the ball very much. The previous seven weeks the Jets allowed 110+ rushing yards. Expect them to get a healthy dose of Cam Newton tonight. The Pats gained 188 yds rushing LW vs. Buffalo, the 4th time this season they’ve gained 185 or more. This should be a “get right” game for the New England offense.

The Jets offense seems destined to have to start Joe Flacco at QB (Sam Darnold has a shoulder injury) and while that may not sound awesome, it’s not like Darnold had been playing all that well. No matter who the Jets’ starting QB is, improvement on third down has to be something we see. The team is last in the league, converting just 28.3% of 3D opportunities including 16.2% of its L37. That’s unsustainable and by the simple “law of averages” HAS to get better. While not the lowest O/U line for either team, it’s pretty close this week. The Over is 3-0 this season in Jets’ games where the total is below 42. All but two of their games have seen more points scored than this total. 10* Over Patriots/Jets

8* Under Saints/Buccaneers (8:20 ET): While so much focus will be paid attention to all the talent returning at receiver in this game, these are two of the top three run defenses in the league. Tampa Bay is 1st, giving up only 70.4 YPG on the ground while New Orleans isn’t too far behind (allows 90.6 YPG). So neither offense is going to run the ball all that effectively. Yes, I know every Saints game this season has gone Over the total. But there have been only EIGHT times in NFL history where a team has opened a season with eight consecutive Overs. Take the Under here. 

So Michael Thomas should be back for the Saints. Tampa Bay “expects” Chris Godwin back while the “controversial” Antonio Brown will make his debut here as well. That’s obviously a lot of talent at receiver, but I don’t expect any of those players to have big games Sunday night. Furthermore, the Bucs other standout WR (Mike Evans) has just five catches in his past three matchups with New Orleans. Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been hobbled by a foot injury this week. If you’re a fantasy owner, expect some of these star skill position players to have down weeks! 

While the Week 1 meeting between these teams saw 57 total points scored and (obviously) went Over, be aware that included a “pick six” from Tom Brady. Also, the Saints offense (w/ Thomas) gained just 271 total yards, a season-low. Tampa Bay had just 310 total yards, which was also their season-low. Both offenses are obviously now much more “in sync,” but I look for the defenses to steal the spotlight away from the much more heralded offenses in this one. I just can’t see another NO game going Over. 8* Under Saints/Buccaneers

10* Under Bucs/Giants (8:15 ET): The point spread for this game has been bet up considerably. While it’s hard to fathom Tampa Bay losing outright, laying double digits (especially on the road) is something I would almost never do in this league. So we turn to the total. The Buccaneers shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Giants’ meager offense Monday night. This Bucs’ defense is allowing just 20.3 PPG and is one of only three defenses in the league (Colts, Steelers) to be allowing LESS than 300 total yards per game. They are #1 against the run.

Heading into Sunday, Tampa Bay had the best point differential in the sport. They’ve outscored their opponents by 80 points. The defense has allowed more than 20 points in just two games this season. They allowed 34 in a Week 1 loss to the Saints and then 31 in a Week 4 win over the Chargers. In both games, QB Tom Brady was guilty of throwing a “pick six,” so the defensive numbers (in terms of points allowed) are even better than they already look. The Giants offense, in case you didn’t know, is one of the very worst in the league. They are averaging just 17.4 PPG and the only time they’ve topped 21 was against the Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the league. 

So I’m pretty confident that the Giants are not scoring many points here. Not only have they scored 21 pts or less in six of seven games, they’ve been held under 17 four times. Those four times were against the best four defenses they’ve faced and a case could be made that TB is the BEST defense they will face all season! So it all comes down to the Giants defense hopefully containing Brady and company. The Bucs’ offense will be without Chris Godwin (one of their starting receivers) so that’s a plus on that front. They did put up 45 themselves last week, but that was on the heels of two games where they averaged a modest 330 YPG. Only one Giants game all season has seen more than 45 total pts scored. 10* Under Bucs/Giants

9* Under Bucs/Raiders (4:05 ET): This was originally supposed to be the Sunday Night game, but had to be moved due to COVID-19 concerns with the Raiders. In a terrible turn of events, Las Vegas may be without its ENTIRE starting offensive line this week! That’s a horrible situation no matter the opponent, but this week the Silver and Black happen to be facing a defense that is giving up a league-low 282 YPG and is second in sacks with 22. Do not expect the Raiders to do much scoring in this one. Take the Under.

Every Raiders’ game this season has gone Over this season (your result vs. Buffalo could vary) and the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings w/ the Bucs, including that Super Bowl debacle when Jon Gruden was coaching AGAINST them. But given the situation that Las Vegas is in here, you certainly expect those trends to be bucked this week. The Raiders like to run the ball, but behind a makeshift O-line that’s going against the top run defense in the league, they aren’t about to have much success doing so. 

Tampa Bay was a HUGE winner for us last Sunday (Game of the Month) as they crushed the Packers 38-10. It was the fourth time in the last five games they held the opponent to 20 points or less. If they can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 107 yards passing, imagine the nightmare Derek Carr is in for as he tries to throw the ball behind a bunch of backups. The Bucs won’t score that many points this week, simply because they won’t have to. Last week, they had a pick-six and a one-play TD drive after another INT, so 38 pts was misleading. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in the league. 9* Under Bucs/Raiders

9* Under Panthers/Saints (1:00 ET): Coming out of a bye is usually considered a luxury, but not if you’re NOT healthy. New Orleans will be without both their starting WRs this week as Michael Thomas is still injured and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID. This is a Saints team that’s trailed by double digits each of its last two games, both of which were against losing teams (Detroit, Chargers). Whether the injuries cost them a win this week remains up for debate, but I do think that for the 1st time this season we’re about to see a Saints’ game stay Under the total.

Carolina comes in at 3-3, which is better than most would have expected. They were favorites for the first time last week, but lost 23-16 to Chicago and really it wasn’t that close as they got their only TD in the 4th quarter. They were held to a season-low 303 total yards and for the 4th time this season were held to 23 points or fewer. On the bright side, the Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving, holding the L4 opponents to an average of just 19 PPG. They gave up only 261 total yards to the Bears last week, which was the second time in three weeks they allowed less than 300.

I don’t think the Panthers are going to move the ball on the ground very effectively in this game as the Saints defense remains very stout against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. Remember Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey for the season, which is a very big deal! New Orleans knows Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater well (he played for them LY) and hopefully Bridgewater can provide insight to his own defense on how to stop Drew Brees & the NO offense. These NFC South rivals do have a history of going Over against one another, but this could close as the highest O/U line for one of their games since 2016. The only other time since then we’ve seen a total of 50+, it ended up being a 12-9 final. 9* Under Panthers/Saints

10* Under Chargers/Saints (8:15 ET): The Under has not been a popular bet either of the L2 weeks on MNF. You had the Chiefs taking on the Ravens and the Falcons facing the Packers. In the case of the latter, it was the league’s worst defense facing the top offense. Yet both times the Under hit and I’m proud to report I was on it both times. With the record amount of scoring we’re seeing across the league, more opportunities to take the Under are going to open up and for the 3rd week in a row on MNF, this is one of them. 

New Orleans is 4-0 Over this season. Entering Week 5, the Texans were the only other team that could claim a perfect Over mark this season and their game (vs. Jacksonville) stayed Under yday. Now that game has no real bearing on this one, obviously. However, it did illustrate that a team isn’t going to go Over (or Under) every game and sometimes all it takes is the “right” opponent. The Chargers were 3-0 Under through three weeks before last week’s wild 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay.

The Chargers, who are starting a rookie QB (Justin Herbert), still only average 20.8 PPG. They actually gained just 324 yards last week, but had a defensive score + two long Herbert TD passes. Not a lot of sustained drives from them. They have injuries in the backfield (at RB). The Saints’ defense has held all four opponents under 400 yards and the Lions gained just 281 on them last week. The Saints’ offense, which will again be w/o WR Michael Thomas, hasn’t looked as good as you might think despite scoring 30+ pts in 3 of 4 games. 10* Under Chargers/Saints

10* Under Falcons/Packers (8:50 ET): Given how this NFL season is going, I admit taking the Under in this particular matchup does seem risky. The two teams are a combined 6-0 Over so far and Atlanta has the worst defense in the league (most points per game allowed) while Green Bay is averaging the MOST PPG on offense. But with everyone likely to be on the Over tonight, I’m going contrarian on the total. This is the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game in the L35 years. Take the Under. 

This will also likely close as the highest O/U line for any NFL game in the L2 seasons. Green Bay has scored at least 37 points in every game so far, a remarkable yet unsustainable achievement. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play! No team in NFL history had ever opened 3-0 SU while scoring 35+ points every game and never turning the ball over. The Packers are the first. But they have trailed in all three games. Despite starting a different O-line combination in every game, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked only twice. I just can’t see this continuing.

Atlanta has gone Under in eight consecutive primetime games, so there is that. Both teams are banged up at the receiver position as Davante Adams is questionable and Alan Lazard out for Green Bay while both Falcons starting WRs (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) are listed as questionable. Those would be significant absences and obviously work to the favor of the Under as neither team has a lot of depth at WR. It won’t be easy, but look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Falcons/Packers

8* Over Cardinals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, the play on the field has largely been defined by Overs, which are 29-19 this season, tying the highest % of Overs through the first three weeks in the last 35 seasons! Furthermore, the average O/U line in the NFL this week is right around 50, which would be an all-time record. It is likely that this week will end up having the highest number of games w/ a total of 50+ in league history. This Arizona-Carolina clash is one of eight currently w/ a total of 50 points or higher. 

Despite all the Overs we’re seeing, someone forgot to “send the memo” to Arizona, who is one of only two teams in the league (Chargers are the other) not to have a single game go Over to this point. It’s not like QB Kyler Murray and company aren’t scoring. They’ve averaged 25.7 PPG and more than 400 YPG. However, turnovers really hurt them in LW’s surprise 26-23 home loss to Detroit. Two of Murray’s three INTs were in Lions territory. We know the Cardinals want to “play fast” and they shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against the defense they face this week, provided they take care of it.

Carolina has been a bit more competitive than expected this year. They are off their first win, 21-16 over the Chargers. But don’t go confusing the Panthers’ defensive effort from last week as a “good one.” They still allowed over 400+ yards, most of it coming through the air from a QB (Justin Herbert) that was making only his 2nd pro start. The first two games saw the Panthers allow 65 total points. The Over had been 7-1 in Carolina’s L8 games, dating back to LY, prior to last week. The Over has hit the last four times these teams have played including a 38-20 Carolina win last season. Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins is a game-time decision here, but on the flip-side their secondary is missing both starting safeties. 8* Over Cardinals/Panthers

9* Under Saints/Lions (1:00 ET): This may seem like a risky bet given it involves the Saints, who have gone Over in all three games so far. But I have a bit of a feeling that this week may turn into a “tipping point” of sorts with NFL totals as the record-setting number of Overs (now 30-19-1 through Thursday) has resulted in a record-setting average O/U line for Week 4. Half of today’s games have totals in the 50’s, including this one, which is one of the higher numbers of the week. I’m going Under on this one.

New Orleans won’t have WR Michael Thomas in the lineup Sunday and that’s key because right now the Saints are LAST in the league with only 283 yards from receivers. TE Jared Cook will also be out. The lack of a downfield passing game is a big reason why New Orleans has dropped consecutive games since 2017. Even when the Saints scored 34 points in the season-opening win over TB, that was misleading. They had a pick-six and were set up on short fields by several other Bucs’ turnovers. The Under is 9-4 the Saints’ L13 October games.

Detroit is off its first win of the year (26-23 at Arizona), but the offense has struggled to move the ball the L2 weeks, averaging just over 300 YPG. They don’t run the ball very effectively and the Saints’ defense is very good at stopping the run. Save for the 4Q vs. Chicago and the Green Bay game, the Lions defense has played pretty well this year. They have led in all three games, so I don’t see them letting this one get out of hand. I know these teams have a history of high-scoring games against one another, but this one bucks the trend. 9* Under Saints/Lions

8* Under Chiefs/Ravens (8:20 ET): This number is predictably high as you’ve got two of the great offenses in this league. But be aware that it’s also the highest O/U line for any Ravens game in HISTORY! Neither of Baltimore’s previous two efforts would have gone Over this number. In fact, neither did Kansas City’s. While neither defense has faced an offense like the one they’ll see tonight, both did excellent jobs containing DeShaun Watson. The Ravens and Chiefs combined to allow just 18 PPG in their respective wins over the Texans this season. 

Kansas City scored just nine points in the first half last week and had only 17 before a game-tying FG as time expired in regulation. So they can be slowed down. The Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes a MUCH different look defensively than they had the previous season and I expect the Ravens to do something similar tonight. These teams have met each of the last two seasons. While Baltimore is 0-2, my guess is they’ll be better prepared for Mahomes this time around. 

The Ravens did score 33 last week, but they had a defensive touchdown. I am counting more on the defense to carry them to victory tonight. That may sound crazy with all the focus (rightly) on the QB matchup of Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. But I think the success that the Ravens will have in this game, at least offensively, will be on the ground. That should chew up some clock. Jackson didn’t even throw for 200 yards last week! Both teams’ Overs this season were by half a point. KC is 4-0 Under its L4 road games. 8* Under Chiefs/Ravens

9* Under Packers/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Packers and Saints are 2 for 2 on the Over, so it’s not a surprise that the total is pretty high Sunday night. However, despite averaging nearly 30 PPG thus far, not all is well in New Orleans. HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees were both highly critical of their respective performances in Week 1 (even though they won) and then last Monday saw them lose out in Las Vegas as they could muster only 7 points in the second half. There are now legit questions concerning Brees’ arm strength.

Green Bay has put up 43 and 42 points in wins over the Lions and Vikings thus far. Aaron Rodgers has certainly looked like his old self, however there could be an issue tonight as WR Devante Adams is questionable and labeled a “game-time decision.” Adams is one of the top wideouts in the league and while Rodgers has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio thus far, the receiving corps beyond Adams isn’t great and drops far too many passes. Also, the Saints defense that Rodgers will be facing here is far superior to that of the Lions and Vikings, two teams that are a combined 0-4 thus far and total messes.

Brees will be without his top receiver as well in Michael Thomas, who led the league in catches last season. So far, New Orleans ranks just 21st in total offense. They gained less than 300 total yards vs. Tampa Bay in the season opener, then last week were nearly held scoreless after halftime. Take away the 17 pts the Saints had off turnovers in Week 1 and they are averaging just 20.5 PPG. But I think their defense, which was one of the league’s best in 2019, will step up tonight. The Under is 5-2 in GB’s L7 as a road underdog. 9* Under Packers/Saints

10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks (4:25 ET): Everyone will be expecting fireworks in “America’s Game of the Week,” but I think Cowboys/Seahawks will find a way to stay Under the total. This is a really high number, the likes of which you rarely see, especially this early in the season. While both teams were involved in shootouts last week - and Seattle has scored 73 points in two games behind leading MVP candidate Russell Wilson - I just don’t think the number should be quite this high. Take the Under. 

Dallas pulled off an all-time comeback last week against Atlanta, rallying from 12 points back in the final eight minutes to stun the Falcons 40-39. Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards, but that was against an awful defense. It should be pointed out that the reason the Cowboys were in such a large, early hole was turnovers. Three of Atlanta’s first four scores came off turnovers and five and they had four scoring drives of 31 yds or less. All told, the Cowboys defense wasn’t bad despite giving up 39 points. They allowed only 20 in Week 1, but of course Dallas lost that game because the offense wasn’t nearly as effective against the Rams as it was vs. Atlanta. That may have something to do with the fact the Cowboys always tend to struggle offensively on the road. 

Seattle had no problems beating Atlanta in Week 1 and that was on the road whereas Dallas got the Falcons at home. But it was a close one last week for the Seahawks as they outlasted the Patriots 35-30. Wilson now has the league’s highest completion rate EVER through two weeks. But he can’t keep completing 82% of his passes and for whatever reason he tends to struggle vs. the Cowboys, averaging only 154 yards passing in five games. The Under is 29-14 in Dallas’ L43 road games including 9-3 the L12 where they were an underdog. 10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks

10* Under Bengals/Browns (8:20 ET): It shouldn’t be all that surprising that this total is low. The two teams combined for a total of 19 points in Week 1, both losing in the process. Cleveland was blown out 38-6 in Baltimore while Cincinnati lost a close one (16-13) to the Chargers. We’ve got two former #1 overall draft choices starting at QB in this Thursday night matchup, including the most recent. While that sounds exciting, I saw some things in Week 1 that lead me to believe both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow may continue to struggle here in 2020. 

Mayfield enters his third season in Cleveland with tempered expectations. He’s already on his third different head coach and third different playcaller since coming into the league. With COVID limiting offseason interaction, my guess is that it’s going to take awhile for Mayfield and 1st year Browns HC Kevin Stefanski to get on the same page. Mayfield didn’t look good from the outset last week, throwing an interception on the very first drive and finishing with only 189 yards despite being down virtually the entire game. The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play against the Ravens.

Burrow only threw for 193 yards in his NFL debut and missed some throws. The Cincinnati offense averaged just 4.4 yards per play. For both Mayfield and Burrow, this second game being on a short week doesn’t help. The Under has hit in each of Cleveland’s last five Thursday night contests. The Under is also 8-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 11 road games. As far as the defenses are concerned, the Bengals only allowed 16 pts last week and the Browns weren’t as bad as you think despite giving up 38 points. Four of Baltimore’s six scoring drives started at midfield or closer. 10* Under Bengals/Browns

8* Under Bucs/Saints (4:25 ET): America’s “Game of the Week” takes place in New Orleans and it’s the 1st EVER matchup (in league history!) of two 40+ year old QB’s. It’s two of the all-time greats with Tom Brady leading the Bucs (how weird does that sound?) and Drew Brees leading the Saints. In terms of how many points are going to be scored, the expectation is for a lot, given the offensive firepower that exists in both sides. Yet, despite that overwhelming sentiment (from bettors), the O/U line has come DOWN. This is a classic fade the public situation.

It’s easy to understand why the public will love the Over in the situation. Both Tampa Bay-New Orleans meetings last season went Over, each seeing 50+ points scored. Now the Bucs add Brady to the mix. But expecting Brady to be the “Brady of old” after this unusual offseason, at least right off the bat, seems like wishful thinking. It seems like there’s a good chance Brady may be without top WR Mike Evans, which would be a huge loss for the Bucs. Bottom line: I don’t see TB moving up and down the field in this first game. 

We’ve also got two of the premier run defenses from a season ago. Tampa Bay’s defense was actually #1 in the league at stopping the run! New Orleans was #4. The Saints’ defense returns 10 of 11 starters from last year. The one new starter is Malcolm Jenkins, who makes the secondary demonstrably better. With all the focus being on Brady & Brees here, don’t be surprised if it's the respective defenses “stealing the headlines.” 8* Under Bucs/Saints

10* Under Texans/Chiefs (8:25 ET): Kansas City is off a Super Bowl winning season in which it covered its final eight games. This despite trailing by double digits in three of the four playoff games, one of which being the Super Bowl and there were less than nine minutes remaining. Perhaps the most infamous of the three playoff comebacks came in the Divisional Round against the very same Texans that the Chiefs will open the 2020 season against. In that game, KC trailed 24-0 only to score 51 of the game’s final 58 points.

Though Houston obviously did not win the Super Bowl and blew a game in which it led 24-0, they did have a large amount of good fortune go their way in 2019. They were 8-3 SU in one-score games, including 5-1 in those decided by three points or less. That’s how you go 10-6 SU despite a point differential of -7 on the year. I had this team as a lock to regress even before an offseason filled with highly questionable personnel moves by HC/GM Bill O’Brien, the most notable seeing him trade away WR DeAndre Hopkins for “peanuts on the dollar.”

You see DeShaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes and the automatic inclination is to expect plenty of fireworks (see last January). But this is the 1st game of the year, after a condensed and unusual training camp, and a very high total for Week 1. Houston’s offense won’t be close to as good as it was last year as they lost over 45% of their offensive touches. KC won’t be going on the same kind of ridiculous scoring stretch it did in LY’s Divisional Playoff Game. The Under is 11-4-1 the Texans’ L16 September games. 10* Under Texans/Chiefs

10* Under 49ers/Chiefs (6:30 ET): Before the start of the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they’ve gone from 4-12 to 15-3 SU and are in the Super Bowl for a seventh time in franchise history. The last time, under Jim Harbaugh and with Colin Kaepernick at QB, is the only one they’ve lost. That was against Baltimore, seven years ago, and they were never “in the money” as 4-point favorites (lost 34-31). While even I ended up being surprised over just how much the 49ers improved, make no mistake about it, this was the best team in the NFC all year long.

Kansas City did not finish with the best record in the AFC (Baltimore did), but here they are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years. It’s the first Super Bowl for HC Andy Reid since losing to the Patriots when he was with the Eagles. This team is probably better than any Eagles team he coached. The Chiefs are not only on an 8-game SU winning streak coming into the biggest game of the year, they have gone 8-0 ATS in those games as well. One of the biggest reasons for that is an improved defense. While we really haven’t seen that in either of the two playoff games, KC has allowed an average of just 13.7 PPG during the eight-game win streak.

Believe it or not, this is likely to close as one of the highest O/U lines for any Chiefs game this season. Early in the season, there were two games with 55-point totals. This will certainly close as the highest O/U line for any Niners game this year. SF games average 49.1 PPG. KC games average 50.0 on the dot. We know the 49ers can play defense as they rank #2 in yards allowed. Both of these defenses are top 10 in scoring. The Under is 7-2-1 in the 10 Super Bowls w/ totals of 50+ pts, including last year’s 13-3 game. Based on the two Conference Championship Games, the public will be on the Over in this game. I’ll take the Under. 10* Under 49ers/Chiefs

10* Under Packers/49ers (6:40 ET): This total is pretty close to what the combined number of points was in the regular season meeting. Of course that game, a 37-8 49ers’ win and cover as 3-pt chalk, was completely lopsided. I think Green Bay is going to be a lot more competitive this time around although I won’t deny that San Francisco remains the much better team, confirmed by the fact that they have a +186 YTD point differential while Green Bay is just +68. 

But this is a lot of points to lay to a team that has Aaron Rodgers at QB. Then again, Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro back in Week 12 on this very field. He threw for just 104 yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt with no completion going longer than 15 yards. Fresh off its bye and back at full strength, the 49ers’ defense displayed similar form last week against the Vikings, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and seven first downs total. In other words, I don’t expect the Packers to score very many points this week.

But the Green Bay defense is likely to keep them in this one. This is a team that hasn’t lost since that regular season matchup against the 49ers and during the 6-game win streak, they have yielded a total of just 94 points! Prior to last week’s 28-23 win over Seattle (I had the Over), the Packers’ previous four games had all stayed Under the total. It’s a much better defense that they are up against here and last week the Pack were held to 7 points after halftime. For the season, both defenses are allowing less than 20 PPG. 10* Under Packers/49ers

10* Over Seahawks/Packers (6:40 ET): All four Wild Card games were low-scoring and stayed Under the total. But the final Divisional Round matchup of the weekend figures to see some “fireworks” as arguably the two most overachieving teams in the NFL collide at Lambeau Field. Seattle, who beat Philadelphia 17-9 last weekend, is now 12-5 straight up. But they have just one win all year by more than eight points. Green Bay went 13-3 SU in the regular season, thus earning a bye, but they only outscored their opponents by 63 points and were 7-1 SU in one-score games. 

So I won’t dare make a play on the side here. But the total and how it’s been bet has caught my eye. While the win in Philly was ugly, Seattle did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last Sunday. That’s a strong average and I’m not sure the Packers defense is much better than the Eagles. Some traditional measures, like points allowed, might make it seem like they are. But Green Bay gave up more yards on a per play and per game basis. It’s been awhile since the Packers defense faced a QB anywhere near as dynamic as Russell Wilson.

The Packers’ ended the regular season on a 7-1 Under run including 4-0 L4. But again, the offenses they went against were not the best. The only three playoff teams they faced that weren’t Minnesota all scored at least 24 points on them. And one of the Minnesota games saw the Vikings gain over 7.0 YPP. The other they were without RB Dalvin Cook. Seattle’s defense isn’t that great either (allows 375 YPG, 6.1 YPP) and will be facing Aaron Rodgers, not Josh McCown. Rodgers has had a “down” year, but I look for him to play well here. 10* Over Seahawks/Packers

10* Under Vikings/Saints (1:00 ET): Finishing the regular season 10-6 SU is pretty good, but I feel Minnesota is better than their record as they played the last two games w/o RB Dalvin Cook and lost both. (Furthermore, they basically rested everyone in a meaningless Week 17 game vs. Chicago). Their YTD point differential of +104 was better than all but six teams in the league. That said, if they are to keep this Wild Card Game in New Orleans close, or even pull the outright upset, it'll likely be because of a defense that allows just only 18.9 PPG rather than Kirk Cousins and the offense. The O/U line has been bet up here and I see value on the Under.

The Saints went 13-3 SU despite missing Drew Brees for 5+ games. They won all five games Brees didn't start, which was key. But there's no doubt this team hit its stride down the stretch w/ Brees back in the lineup. Still don't discount the impact the Saints defense has had on the team's success this season. It's been the best in the league at stopping the run over the L2 years and that's key when facing a Vikings' offense that is going to look to put the ball in Cook's hands. 

In case you're wondering, this is a pretty high spread for the Wild Card round. Going back to 2012, it's only the 8th instance of a WC Game having a spread of a TD or more. The previous seven all went Under the total! In fact, 10 of the last 11 WC games with a spread of at least six points stayed Under. New Orleans is giving up only 21.3 PPG and allowed 17 pts or fewer seven times. 10* Under Vikings/Saints

10* Over Raiders/Broncos (4:25 ET): For a 7-8 team that's technically still alive for the playoffs, Oakland absolutely reeks. The Silver and Black have been outscored by 105 points this year. Only four teams have worse point differentials and none of them have more than five wins. Three of the four have four wins or less. How the Raiders have been able to get to 7-8 can be explained by a 7-2 SU record in one-score games. That's right. They have not won a game by more than eight points all year. Ironically, their largest win came in Week 1 against Denver, the team they'll conclude the regular season against.

Running back Josh Jacobs has been ruled out of this game, not a great sign for a Raiders team that needs A LOT to go right on Sunday to make the playoffs. But even w/o Jacobs, the likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Raiders still put up 24 points last week against a good Chargers' defense. Jacobs' replacement, DeAndre Washington, ran for 85 yards on 23 carries last week. That was along with QB Carr completing 26 of his 30 passes. Carr has completed over 83% of his pass attempts against the Broncos the L2 years, all of those of resulting in Oakland wins. 

It was a 24-16 final when these teams met on Monday Night Football in Week 1. That was back when the Broncos were still starting Joe Flacco at QB. Now its rookie Drew Lock. The Denver offense has generally been better with Lock at the helm, including in 27-17 win right here at home last week. The Oakland defense gives up 6.2 yards per play and 26.9 PPG. Look for WR Courtland Sutton to have a big game here. The L6 meetings may have all stayed Under, but this one won't. 10* Over Raiders/Broncos

8* Over Chargers/Chiefs (1:00 ET): This could be Philip Rivers final game as the QB of the Chargers. If this truly is it, then it comes in a manner all too familiar for him. The Chargers were a talented team this year, but simply failed to "get it done" in the "clutch." Last week's upset loss at home to the Raiders (24-17 as 6.5-pt chalk) dropped them to a mind-numbing 2-9 SU in one score games this season. Despite a 5-10 SU record, the Chargers have both outscored and outgained opponents this year. Whomever is the QB next year, this will be a better team.

Kansas City, having dominated the AFC West yet again, is headed to the playoffs. Seeding is still up in the air. They can still earn a first round bye w/ a win and Patriots loss. But seeing as New England is playing Miami at home, it's unlikely that scenario plays out. Still, the Chiefs do need to win here to avoid to falling to the #4 seed, which would happen if the Texans won and they lost. The Texans don't play until 4:00 ET, so KC won't know what that result is while this game is ongoing. So expect a strong start by the offense to try and put this one to bed. 

It's been KC's defense leading the charge in a 5-0 SU/ATS run since the bye week (Under also 5-0). They've given up an average of just 9.6 PPG and allowed only THREE touchdowns. The streak started with a 24-17 win over these Chargers, but the total for that game was much higher (51.5). We know what the Chiefs' offense is capable of, but the Chargers come in averaging a respectable 367.5 yards per game. They are capable of putting 20+ on the board, which would make this an easy Over. 8* Over Chargers/Chiefs

10* Over Steelers/Jets (1:00 ET): Obviously, you shouldn't expect this game to turn into any kind of shootout. But the total is too low in my opinion and I'll be playing the Over. Yes, that attempt failed in the Steelers' game last week against the Bills. But it certainly had its chances to go Over. Pittsburgh QB Devlin Hodges had two chances to tie the game, but threw interceptions in the end zone both times. Had he directed a game-tying drive, then the game would have gone to overtime (duh!) and then gone Over had either team simply kicked a field goal. This time, the Under streak for Pittsburgh (currently six games) ends. 

The Jets, save for the disastrous effort a few weeks back at Cincinnati, have been a decent offensive team as long as Sam Darnold is in at QB. They've scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games. Remember, I had a big Over play with them when they faced a Redskins team that was on an Under streak similar to the one the Steelers find themselves on now. The Jets giving up 42 points last week can probably be chalked up to "facing the Ravens," but I still think it's a better matchup for Pittsburgh than it was vs. Buffalo last week. 

The 10 points Pittsburgh scored last week marked their third fewest in a game all season. The Over is 5-2 when they are coming off a game where they scored 15 pts or less Hodges definitely did struggle, but it'll be easier for him if Ju-Ju Smith Schuster returns to the lineup this week. Schuster has been M.I.A. since the first Browns game, but was a full participant in practice Thursday. A notable name ON the injury list for the Steelers was CB Joe Haden, which would obviously hamper the secondary. The Jets are 6-1 Over following an ATS loss. 10* Over Steelers/Jets

10* Under Colts/Saints (8:15 ET): While New Orleans is 10-3, I've been pretty consistent this year in labeling them as a team that has been both "lucky" and "good." They've gone 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or fewer, that lone loss coming last week to San Francisco by a score of 48-46. While it is tough to imagine the Saints dropping two straight at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, I'm not going to lay this many points w/ a team that has only three double digits wins this season, only one of those coming at home. Indianapolis, fighting for its playoff life, isn't about to simply "roll over" either. 

The Colts know a thing or two about close games. All but two of their games this season have been decided by seven points or less. One was a win, 33-13 vs. Jacksonville, and the other was a loss (31-17 vs. Tennessee). The only reason they lost that game to the Titans by more than a touchdown was an Adam Vinateri FG getting blocked and returned for a TD. 

With both teams coming off very high scoring losses (Colts lost 38-35 at TB), it's no wonder that the O/U has been bet up for Monday night. However, this Colts' offense hasn't performed up to par for three straight games now. The defense had a TD last week, something they can't continue to count on. WR TY Hilton remained limited in practice this week and will be a game-time decision. The offense just hasn't been the same without him. This could close as the 2nd highest O/U line of the year for the Colts despite them not having Hilton. 10* Under Colts/Saints

10* Over Bills/Steelers (8:20 ET): This game was "flexed" into the Sunday Night spot because - as of right now - these would be your two Wild Card teams in the AFC. Buffalo is 9-4, though coming off a 24-17 home loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh has improbably continued to win and now is 8-5 following a 23-17 win over Arizona last week. Both teams are known more for their defenses, which is why we've got such a low total here. In addition, the last five Steelers games have all stayed Under (and last 3 for the Bills). But I look for this one to end that streak as it won't take much scoring. 

The Bills at one point had gone Under five straight times this season. It was back in the first five weeks of the season. I took them Over the following week, despite facing the lowest scoring team in the league (Miami) and sure enough the game went Over. You just don't see many teams go Over or Under more than five consecutive times. Even with the low amount of scoring in games involving these teams, the average number of total PPG for both just exceeds the current O/U line. Bills games average 37.4 PPG this year. Steelers games average 38.4. All we are asking for here is an "average" game. 

Devlin "Duck" Hodges is the latest player to step up for a Steelers offense that has been hit extremely hard by injuries. The offense has operated more efficiently w/ him than it did when Mason Rudolph was under center. In the three games Hodges has started this year, Pittsburgh has scored 24, 23 and 20 points. They should find success running the ball here as that's the weakness of the Bills' defense. QB Josh Allen played a terrible game last week against Baltimore, but should have a bounce back game here. The Over is 13-4 the L17 games where the Steelers were a home favorite. 10* Over Bills/Steelers

10* Under Texans/Titans (1:00 ET): While there's far more on the line here than just Tennessee's 7-game Over streak (like first place in the AFC South), that's what will be our focus here as it's time for my biggest NFL O/U release of the season! The key to the Titants getting hot has been Ryan Tannehill of all people. Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has led the team to a 6-1 SU record (5-1-1 ATS), which now has them in a first place tie w/ the Texans. During the 6-1 streak, Tennessee has averaged 31.4 PPG. The only QB w/ a better passer rating - or WL record - than Tannehill over the L7 wks is Lamar Jackson. 

Tannehill becoming the Titans' starting QB also directly coincides w/ the team's 7-0 Over streak. Now they get set to for the first of two games w/ the Texans, who were just bushwhacked by Denver last week. Houston trailed 38-3 after the first drive of the second half and needed some garbage time scores from DeShaun Watson just to make things look reasonable (ended up losing 38-24). Making that result all the more head-scratching is the fact the Texans had just beaten the Patriots the previous week. I know there's been some concerns about the defense ever since JJ Watt went down, but Romeo Crenell's group should be playing better than it has. 

While Tannehill deserves most of the credit for Tennessee catching fire, his defense and special teams have both regularly contributed to the scoring as well. There's been a non-offensive TD each of the L2 wks for the Titans. Plus, they are getting a ridiculous number of "big" plays (65+ yd TDs) as well. Eventually, that's going to dry up. They have not scored more than 24 points against Houston since 2010! As for the Titans' defense, it has allowed more than 23 pts in only two games this season. This is the Under we are looking for. 10* Under Texans/Titans

10* Under Titans/Raiders (4:25 ET): Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill has led the Titans to a 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) record and an average of almost 30 PPG. But before we go crediting this journeyman too much, let's note Tennessee's scoring average has not been all the offense's doing. Special teams and defense have both contributed to the scoring as well and that's something you cannot count on every game. Facing a Raiders team that has scored a grand total of 29 points its last three games, look for the Titans' 6-0 Over streak to end Sunday. 

So like I said, Tannehill has certainly had ample assistance since becoming the Titans' starting QB. Five weeks ago vs. Tampa Bay, the offense had two TD drives that started inside the opponents' 10-yard line. Three weeks ago, Tennessee had no business beating Kansas City, but got a defensive TD + a FG block that set up the GW score. Against Jacksonville two weeks ago, there was a six play sequence where they scored FOUR touchdowns, which is an insane occurrence. Last week's game vs. Indianapolis was tied 17-17 going into the final five minutes, but the Titans returned a blocked FG for a TD, then sent the game Over w/ a TD off a Colts turnover. The offense gained less than 300 total yards in the 31-17 victory.

Oakland has barely done any scoring of late. They rank last in the league the L3 weeks in points per drive at 0.85. This just doesn't seem like the time or place for Derek Carr and company to get back on track as they are facing the league's 7th best scoring defense (19.5 PPG allowed). Tennessee has held nine of its 12 opponents to 20 points or less this season. RB Josh Jacobs just recently revealed he's been playing with a fractured shoulder, so expect him to be less effective moving forward, especially with the right side of the Raiders' offensive line also banged up. 10* Under Titans/Raiders 

10* Under Cowboys/Bears (8:20 ET): Both teams are 6-6 SU, which seems crazy given the negativity surrounding the respective franchises. I faded Dallas on Thanksgiving, citing the rather toxic situation that exists between coach (Jason Garrett) and owner (Jerry Jones) right now. Sure there's plenty of talent on the field. The Cowboys also boast the league's 5th best point differential (+74). But that's largely been undone by the fact they are also 0-4 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less, a stark contrast to last season when they were a league-best 9-2 SU in that situation. 

Chicago won 12 games last season (and the division), making them one of the favorites in the NFC coming into 2019. QB Mitch Trubisky was even getting consideration as a potential MVP candidate by bettors, which is downright laughable in retrospect. But the Bears have regressed badly, which really isn't all that shocking and it's easy to pinpoint why. The offense, Trubisky in particular, have been BRUTAL. They come in averaging just 17.7 PPG, which is 27th in the league and none of the teams that rank below them have more than four wins. Luckily, they also have a defense that is allowing 17.3 PPG (4th best). 

The 24 pts scored by the Bears last week in the win over Detroit actually marked a six-week high for them. I had the Over, but the number was really low thanks to the Lions' iffy QB situation. Considering Chicago has scored more than 25 pts only only time all season - and it was Wk 3 on a terrible Washington team - I'd say they aren't much of a threat to score a ton of points Thursday night. Dallas is only allowing 19.7 PPG. As for the Cowboys' offense, despite all that talent, they've scored all of 24 pts the L2 games combined. Granted, that was facing two of the top three scoring defenses in the NFL, but as stated above, the Bears rank 4th in that department. 10* Under Cowboys/Bears 

10* Under Titans/Colts (1:00 ET): What an interesting season it's been with Tennesee totals. After winning the season opener 43-13 in Cleveland (easy Over), the next five games all stayed Under. I took the Over when they hosted the Chargers on Oct 20 and it cashed (barely). Since then, every game has gone Over. If you're looking for a reason for the big change, it can be tied to Ryan Tannehill of all people as the Titans offense has been much more effective w/ him as the QB as opposed to Marcus Mariota. But I like the Under this week as the Titans are matched up w/ a familiar opponent.

The Colts played the Titans in Week 2. It was a 19-17 game, won by Indianapolis. Mariota started that game for Tennessee, so this will be Indy's first look at Fitzpatrick in a Titans' uniform. In the games Tannehill has started, Tennessee is 1st in the league in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD on 13 of 14 possessions. But I'm still skeptical of Tannehill. The Colts' defense is allowing just 20.5 PPG and has allowed more than 24 in regulation just two times all year. The Titans' L2 games have seen them score their highest point totals since the season opener, but they still are averaging just 22.3 PPG on the year and 18.8 PPG on the road.

The Colts' offense likes to run the ball but RB Marlon Mack (hand) is still out. Plus, the Tennessee defense has permitted only one 100+ yard rusher all season - and it was Christian McCaffery. The Titans are allowing just 19.7 PPG on the year and 17.8 PPG on the road. So we're looking at some really low-scoring games when the Titans are the road team. Speaking of low-scoring, the Colts managed only 17 points LW in Houston. WR TY Hilton is also out here. The Titans scored 4 TDs in six offensive plays last week, which will not happen again. 10* Under Titans/Colts 

10* Under Saints/Falcons (8:20 ET): When I released Atlanta as a *10* Game of the Week selection three weeks ago in New Orleans, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons would win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing about it is just how dominant a SU victory it was. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. Can the defense do it again? I think so! Take the Under here. 

The week after they stunned the Saints, the Falcons defense stepped up big again in a 29-3 win at Carolina. At that point, it certainly "felt" as though their season might be turning around as they returned home to face a fellow 3-7 team, Tampa Bay. But we faded and the Falcons lost 35-22. Not sure what happened to that defensive resurgence, but the Bucs offense had a big day. Atlanta's offense did not w/ only 13 pts through three quarters. They had a late garbage time TD that sent the game Over. That Over would not have been possible w/o a late TB defensive score as well. The Falcons only average 22.0 PPG this year.

The Saints have been one of the luckier teams this year. They were fortunate to go 5-0 SU w/ Teddy Bridgewater filling in for an injured Drew Brees. Last week, they pulled another "rabbit out of the hat" w/ a 34-31 win over Carolina, kicking a GW FG as time expired, only after Carolina missed its own FG try. Though they appeared to look "as good as ever" last week, this Saints' offense has its problems. They tend to start slow and have had four different games where they failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. They only average 24.7 PPG, but are fortunate to have a defense which allows just 20.9 PPG. 10* Under Saints/Falcons

8* Over Bears/Lions (12:35 ET): Low total here as both teams have been going Under quite regularly of late, including one game where they played each other. That 20-13 Week 10 result (that went in the Bears' favor) marked the first time the Lions were forced to start Jeff Driskel in place of the injured Matt Stafford. While it may seem a little challenging to handicap this rematch in light of the Lions' QB situation (they may be down to third-stringer David Blough), I am forging ahead w/ the Over. It doesn't take all that much to send a game Over a total like this. 

Chicago has had its own QB issues, bouncing back and forth between Mitchell Trubisky and backup Chase Daniel. Given how ineffective he's been, it's stunning to think back to August when Trubisky was getting bets to win league MVP. He did lead his team to victory last Sunday, 19-14 over the Giants, and while it was ugly the Bears offense did gain 20 first downs. All 19 pts were scored in the 3rd quarter. The Lions' defense they'll be up against here is not good. It has allowed at least 23 points in all but three games this year. 

Obviously, I'm hopeful Driskel will be the starter here for the Lions. But if not, I'm still confident the offense will be able to score enough to help send this one Over. I know both offenses are short-handed, but this reminds me of a few weeks ago when I bet the Over on Jets-Redskins and won. This is the NFL and eventually an offense is going to start scoring. In this case, we have two that are long overdue to put some points on the road. Two weeks ago, with Driskel at the helm, the Lions did score 27 against the Cowboys. Last week's loss to the Redskins saw them put up a respectable 364 yards at 5.1 per play. 8* Over Bears/Lions

10* Over Ravens/Rams (8:20 ET): This is a much different Rams team than we’re accustomed to seeing under HC Sean McVay, especially on the offensive side of things. McVay’s first two years here brought back memories of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” but 2019 has seen QB Jared Goff regress to a level not seen since he was a rookie operating under a different coaching staff. At least the Rams defense has held up their “end of the bargain” recently, giving up a league-low 11 PPG the last four weeks. That’s allowed for a 3-1 SU record, but Monday night they are underdogs against Baltimore team that leads the league in scoring at 34.1 PPG. With the Ravens’ offense doing most of the “heavy lifting,” look for this game to go Over.

Those last four games have seen the Rams’ defense go up against Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Chicago. Every single one of those opponents has had issues at the QB position. Baltimore has no issues w/ Lamar Jackson now the betting favorite to win league MVP. With Jackson passing and running, the Ravens have scored 30+ pts in four straight games. They scored a total of 90 in just the L2 games. Perhaps the most impressive thing of all with this Ravens’ offense is that they are averaging 38.4 PPG on the road! Remember the Rams gave up 55 at home to the 3-7 Bucs earlier this year. 

While I believe Baltimore will be playing a significant role in this game going Over, don’t discount what the Rams can do either. I know they are not what they’ve been the last two seasons, but they’ve faced two tough defenses the last two weeks. Baltimore’s D is giving up 5.8 yards per play. The Rams will get back WR Brandin Cooks this week, which should help not just Goff, but also fellow wideout Cooper Kupp. This Rams offense has had some rough days when facing some of the league’s top defenses, but they also have scored at least 27 points in half their games. I don’t consider the Ravens an elite team defensively anymore. 10* Over Ravens/Rams

10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (8:15 ET): The Chiefs have owned the Chargers in recent seasons, winning 9 of the previous 10 head to head meetings. The one loss occurred the last time they met, Week 15 of last year when Los Angeles prevailed 29-28. But the Bolts were also a much better team last year. They wound up winning 12 games, the same number as KC. Like LA, the Chiefs come into this game somewhat desperate for a win as they have lost four of six, including Patrick Mahomes return from injury a week ago at Tennessee. The call is Over here as this should be a high-scoring game. 

While they aren't scoring as many points as last year (not surprising), there's nothing wrong w/ the Chiefs' offense. They've averaged 29.2 points in the games Mahomes has started. In his return last week, Mahomes threw for 433 yards in a losing effort. But the reason the team lost that game to the Titans is a defense that remains pretty awful. Last week marked the third time in five games that the Chiefs allowed 30+ points. They are also 31st in the league against the run, giving up 149 YPG. There's a reason the L3 Kansas City games have all gone Over.

With QB Philip Rivers leading the NFL in passing yardage (2,816) and RB Melvin Gordon off his 1st 100+ yard rushing game of the season, the Chargers have the horses necessary to take advantage of the Chiefs' poor defense. The two meetings LY saw 57 and 66 total pts scored. This game will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. A questionable playing surface will make life hell for defenders in coverage. In addition to winning by fading KC last week, I also had the Over in the Chargers' 26-24 loss to the Raiders. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers

10* Over Jets/Redskins (1:00 ET): The Jets finally woke up last week and scored a season-high 34 points in a rare win (just 2nd of the year), beating the Giants. Speaking of rare, the Redskins didn't lose last week. But that's only because they were on a bye. This is probably the league's ugliest game on paper since each team played Miami. Interestingly, Washington won their game in Miami (17-16) while the Jets lost theirs (26-18). But that doesn't mean as much when you consider the Skins suffered a 24-3 loss to the same Giants team that the Jets just beat. Bottom line is I'm expecting a higher scoring game than usual for these two teams. Take the Over.

Were the Jets to match last week's point total, then they'd be on the cusp of sending this one Over by themselves. Now expecting the Jets to score 34 points again seems a bit foolish. After all, last week was easily a season-high and just the second time they've topped 20 pts in a game all year! But this porous Redskins' defense may allow for something close to what we saw last week. While Washington's defensive numbers have gotten better as the season has worn on, they still allow a 72.5% completion percentage and 5.7 yards per play. They've gone against some weaker offenses recently and also played in a heavy downpour vs. San Francisco. I believe this will be one of the Jets' better offensive games of the year. They've scored 91 pts in the five games since Sam Darnold has been back, which may not sound like much, but it also includes getting shutout by New England.

The big news coming out of D.C. this week is that rookie QB Dwayne Haskins will be starting the rest of the way. Might as well as Washington's offense hasn't done much all year. The last six games have seen them score a total of 45 points, a stretch where the Under is 6-0. And remember they scored 17 of those 45 points in the win over Miami. But coming off a bye, Haskins should be the most prepared he's been all year. Similar to the Jets, I'm calling for one of the Redskins' better offensive efforts this week. It's not like the Jets' defense is all that great. They allow 29.0 PPG on the road and have given up at least 26 pts in six of their last seven games. 10* Over Jets/Redskins

10* Under Seahawks/49ers (8:15 ET): I'm pretty shocked to see how little recent success the 49ers have had recently NFC West rivalry. Then again, I said the same thing going into last week's game vs. Arizona, whom they hadn't beaten since 2014. Now it's time to turn to Seattle. Going back to the infamous 2013 NFC Championship Game loss (where Richard Sherman sounded off on Michael Crabtree), the Niners had lost 10 in a row to the Seahawks. That losing streak ended w/ a 26-23 victory in Week 15 last year, right here at home as 3.5-point underdogs. Now the Niners look to make it two in a row as they put their perfect 8-0 SU record on the line Monday night. 

Last Thursday in Arizona was one of the rare times this SF defense looked mortal this season. They allowed the Cardinals to gain 7.1 yards per play in a game that got shockingly close at the end. The Niners still won though, 28-25. Going from playing on a Thursday night to MNF should allow for this defense to "get right" again. The 49ers are #1 in the league in yards allowed per game (241.0) and #2 in points (12.8). Only one QB (Andy Dalton!) has thrown for more than 240 yds against them as they've allowed the fewest number of completions and yards through the air. Bottom line is I expect a big bounce back effort from this excellent defense Monday night. 

The Niners' offense will be getting some key pieces back. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is set to return as are the two starting tackles, Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. But at the same time, TE George Kittle (who is Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target) is doubtful and so is kicker Robbie Gould. So that's a break for the Seattle defense. The Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this season (last night's MIN-DAL result pending) and w/ this being a divisional battle, I expect the same to happen here. 10* Under Seahawks/49ers

**As a BONUS, do a 7-pt teaser on side & total. SF +1 and Under 55

10* Under Panthers/Packers (4:25 ET): Going back to 2005, the Over is 7-0 when these teams meet. But as we saw last week, the Packers offense is far from perfect. In a game where we faded them, they were held to 13 first downs, 184 yards total and 3.8 yards per play. They lost 26-11 out in LA, ending what had been a 4-game win streak. At 7-2, GB is still in good shape as they'll likely be favored in all but two games the rest of the way. But last week's offensive effort is tough to shake for us. This is a team "due" for some Unders after 5 of 6 games prior to last week's loss had gone Over. We're on the Under here. 

Carolina has gone Over in four straight games scoring 30+ in three of them (all wins) while conceding 51 (to San Francisco) in the lone loss. We were on that Over in the loss to San Francisco. The Panthers are now officially Kyle Allen's team after Cam Newton was placed on IR this week. If Newton wasn't 100 percent, then that's the right decision. But I have a hard time believing this team is better, long-term, w/ Allen at the helm. They were held under 300 yds by a poor Tampa Bay defense three weeks ago in London. Last week was just the second time in the L5 games they gained more than 300 total yards. 

On paper, this Packers defense facing Carolina RB Christian McCaffery doesn't seem like a good matchup. It seems as if any "improvement" by this Packers defense may have been overstated early in the year when they were facing some weak defenses. Since Wk 4, they've given up at least 22 pts every game. But I'm calling for their best defensive effort since Week 3 in this one. In terms of YPG, both of these offenses rank in the bottom half of the league. The Over streaks, both head to head and for Carolina, are "due" to end here. 10* Under Panthers/Packers

10* Over Chargers/Raiders (8:25 ET): How about them Chargers? We had them Sunday as they delivered an outright win over the Packers, 26-11 as 3.5-point dogs. Few, if any, gave the Lightning Bolts a real chance heading into that one. But I saw a slightly overrated Green Bay team ripe to be upset. Los Angeles played arguably its best game of the season, outgaining the Packers 442-184 for the game and 6.5 to 3.8 on a per play basis. While it might seem strange to read, look for the Chargers' defense to be tested more this week by the Raiders than it was by the Packers. LA is 7-1 Under its last 8 games, but take the Over on this one. 

Oakland also got its 4th win of the season on Sunday. The Silver and Black beat the Lions 31-24 as a three-point favorite, the first time all year that the Raiders were chalk. They've now gone Over in 5 of the last 6 games. The past five weeks have seen the Raiders score 24 pts or more in every game. That's a number the Chargers haven't allowed more than except one time all year (allowed 27 to the Texans). So something will clearly have to give in this AFC West tilt. Recent history may not be on our side here as the L5 meetings have all gone Under. But w/ the Chargers offense looking improved last week and the Raiders also matching their season high in pts scored in a game, this one should break the trend.

The Chargers' defense was one of the primary reasons I called for the upset LW vs. GB. They are allowing just 18.7 PPG for the year, including 15.5 on the road. But they've also not exactly faced a tremendous slate of opposing QB's and offenses. Derek Carr has averaged nearly 300 yards passing the past three games. The Raiders also ran for 171 yards against the Lions, the 4th time in the last 5 wks they went for 150+ on the ground. But a problem the team still has is a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most significant statistical categories. Last week, the Lions gained an amazing 7.5 yards per play! 10* Over Chargers/Raiders 

10* Over Browns/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're long ways from the 1987 & '88 AFC Championship Games that these teams faced off in. In 2019, both are struggling to remain relevant, even in a weaker than usual AFC. For Cleveland, this is terribly disappointing as they had high expectations (believe it or not) coming into the season. Those expectations seem foolish in retrospect, but they were there. As for Denver, not a ton was expected in Vic Fangio's 1st year, but I thought they'd improve on LY's 6-10 SU record. At 2-6 right now, that doesn't seem very likely. Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start at QB this week, replacing the injured Joe Flacco. Not like the offense was doing much w/ Flacco in there though, so I would be careful about calling this a downgrade. 

Calling for an Over here might seem like I'm being a contrarian. After all, Denver's last four games have all stayed Under. So have 19 of their last 24 games. Replacing Tim Tebow was easy (Peyton Manning!) for John Elway, but Elway hasn't come close to finding anything close to a successor for Manning. Flacco wasn't the answer and Allen probably won't be either. But an Over would seem to be in the works sooner rather than later as this stretch of low-scoring games can't be sustained. By the way, the Broncos have lost THREE games in the final minute this year, so their record could be a whole lot better right now. Cleveland's defense has allowed 20+ points in all but one game this season. 

I also think this is where the struggling Browns' offense gets on track. Last week they were nearly identical to the Patriots in total yards, running a fewer amount of plays. Three turnovers, all on successive possessions, killed them. That was after blowing a lead at home to Seattle the previous week. While the 2-5 SU record is disappointing in Cleveland right now, the Browns have faced a pretty tough schedule. The rest of the way things get progressively easier as they'll be favored in at least the next four games. Cleveland's offense is gaining 6.2 yards per play this season and RB Nick Chubb has had one 37+ yard rush in four straight games. Denver's defense has played admirably, but that may not last as they are set to face some better offenses (including this one) in what is a lost season. 10* Over Browns/Broncos

8* Over Redskins/Bills (1:00 ET): Buffalo's defense, which held Tom Brady and New England to just 16 pts and 224 total yards, has taken a bit of a hit the past two weeks. First it was winless Miami hanging 21 points on them in a surprisingly close game. Last week, the bubble finally burst as the Eagles came in and ran wild, for 218 yds over land, en route to winning 31-13. Previous to those last two efforts, the Bills had not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent and all five games stayed Under. While this week's opponent (Washington) is not a particularly strong outfit, the last 2 weeks have at least shown us the Bills' defense is far from invincible. Take the Over here. 

Washington started the year w/ three straight Overs, but the Under has since gone 5-0. The biggest problem is obviously an offense which is averaging 12.4 PPG, third fewest in the league right now. Those L5 games have truly been dismal efforts when the Redskins have the football as they've scored a grand total of 36, almost half of those coming in the team's lone win, which was over Miami. Since that win, the offense has not scored a single TD. QB Case Keenum is injured, so now rookie Dwayne Haskins will make his first career start. While Haskins has looked far from great in limited appearances, he does represent somewhat of a "Wild Card" element to this week's game. 

Something I do fully anticipate in this game is the Redskins' defense regressing. After giving up 30+ pts in four of the first five games, they've allowed less than 15 PPG the L3 and just three TD's. That sort of sounds impressive, especially when you consider they've faced both the 49ers and Vikings. But that 49ers' game was decimated by rain and the Vikings, despite scoring only 19 points, gained 434 yards on 6.5 per play. There were a total of five 10+ play drives that ended in FG's in that Vikings game. Miami scoring 16 pts on the Redskins was actually above their season average. I expect Buffalo's offense to have a big game here and there's hope for Washington's too as both teams can run the ball well against defenses that appear vulnerable. The Over is still 20-8 the Bills' last 28 home games and this is a low number. 8* Over Redskins/Bills

10* Over Panthers/49ers (4:05 ET): By virtually every objective measure, San Francisco is the 2nd best team in the league right now.  Few, if any, saw this coming. But I can say that we at least saw this as the team most likely to improve its record in 2019. When it came to injuries, turnovers and just plain bad luck, the 49ers were hit pretty hard in 2018. But there's no "smoke and mirrors" when it comes to this 6-0 SU record as the Niners are the only team besides the Patriots w/o a loss and they've got the second best point differential as well. Their future outlook seems promising as well. They'll be favored in each of the next five games unless something major changes. 

This week's opponent is the Carolina Panthers, who are off a bye. The week before the bye, Carolina was in London, beating division rival Tampa Bay 37-26 (as 2-pt favorites) thanks in large part to SEVEN Bucs' turnovers. Quite frankly, the Panthers were a little fortunate to win/cover in that they were outgained 407-268. But in this league, you're going to win 99.9% of the time when the opponent turns it over 7 times. Of course, the story we need to talk about right now w/ Carolina is QB Kyle Allen. In three of the four games Allen has started, the Panthers have scored 34+ points. Allen isn't better than Cam Newton, but he is clearly better than an INJURED Newton.

The 49ers have largely done it w/ defense, giving up just 223.5 yards and 10.7 points per game. Both numbers rank 2nd in the league, trailing only the Patriots. The Niners have the league's top pass defense, so it will be interesting to see if Allen's stretch of good play halts here. Regardless, you can look for SF to pile up some points. Carolina's defense isn't that great and has given up an average of more than 450 yards the L2 games. Their secondary was shredded by both Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston, so Jimmy Garoppolo should be in line for a strong stat line this week. The Niners offense is averaging 441 yards at 6.3 YPP at home so far. Certainly conditions will be a lot nicer here compared to last week in D.C. (9-0 shutout of the Redskins). 10* Over Panthers/49ers

10* Under Redskins/Vikings (8:20 ET): We said it last week and will reiterate it again here. Minnesota is one of the better teams in the league. Mike Zimmer's team has outgained its opponents by 1.3 yards on a per play basis and has the third best scoring differential in the league. They've been a dominant home team, winning all three games here by double digits, and have scored a total of 80 points the L2 weeks. Kirk Cousins and the offense figures to have its way Thursday night against a Washington defense that has been one of the worst in the league so far this year. 

But the Redskins' offense certainly doesn't figure to score many points this week. They certainly haven't scored many this year. Only the Jets and Dolphins have scored less this year and over the last four weeks, the Skins have scored a grand total of 27 points. That includes 17 in their lone win of the season, which was against Miami. The other three games they failed to scored more than 7. Last week in the rain, they couldn't manage any points in a shutout loss to the 49ers. With a coaching change having already taken place, things are looking rather grim in the Nation's capital right now. 

Washington's last four games have gone Under and the last three didn't have totals any higher than this one. While two of those last three games came against New England and San Francisco, the two top defensive teams in the league right now, the Skins could also manage only a field goal against a Giants' defense that is not very good. The Vikings defense isn't too far behind those of the Patriots and 49ers, statistically. But also look for the Vikings' offense to struggle a bit more than usual this week as WR Adam Theilen is out w/ a hamstring injury. With Theilen out, Stefon Diggs can't possibly match his production from the last two games where he's had 14 catches for 300+ yards. The last six meetings between the teams have all gone Over. Not this one. 10* Under Redskins/Vikings

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): The last time these AFC East rivals met was Week 4 and the Jets were starting a practice squad QB (Luke Falk) that isn’t even with the team anymore. Yet they managed to not only cover (were huge 3 TD underdogs), but the game went Over (barely) as well. We had the Jets and Over in that game and while the key to cashing both were TWO non-offensive scores from the Jets, it is curious that the O/U line isn’t higher for Monday night’s rematch. With Sam Darnold back at QB, the Jets are much more formidable on offense than they were with Falk. Take the Over.

We came into the season with a fairly optimistic view of the Jets. That quickly dissipated due to Darnold being sidelined with mono. But we saw what the team is capable of last week as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as 7-point home underdogs. In his return, Darnold threw for 338 yards. Look for RB Le’Veon Bell to start being more productive as well now that Darnold is back. Again, unlike the last time they faced the Patriots, the Jets will score offensive touchdowns here. The fact that the O/U isn’t any higher for Darnold starting instead of Falk (who was TERRIBLE) is definitely perplexing to us. 

New England’s defense has been downright tremendous so far, but it should be noted that this start has come at the expense of some pretty bad teams. Also, they have been historically great on third down, nearly to the point of unsustainability. Tom Brady and the offense have scored at least 30 pts in every game but one (against a very good Bills defense), which is a trend that we can see continue here. They didn’t need to do much the last time they faced the Jets. This game should go Over much more easily as both offenses are now at full strength. The Patriots will do the heavy lifting while the Jets will score enough to “help out.” 10* Over Patriots/Jets

10* Over Chargers/Titans (4:05 ET): Two teams scrambling for a win meet in Nashville w/ the 2-4 Chargers taking on the 2-4 Titans. Both teams have lost four of five, including two straight, since an Opening Week win. In the case of the Chargers, the decline from last year can be pinned on injuries. In the Titans’ case, there’s now some real uncertainty about Marcus Mariota as the franchise QB. In fact, Ryan Tannehill will start this game. Tennessee games, on average, have been the lowest scoring in the league at just 31.6 PPG. The last five have all gone Under. The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Under. But w/ a low total, we think this one will be different. Take the Over. 

The Titans were shutout last week (16-0 by Denver) and have just ONE offensive TD in the L10 quarters. So with a top five scoring defense, this hardly seems like an ideal candidate for an Over. But they have made a QB change as HC Mike Vrabel is looking for the dreaded “spark.” We believe Tennessee is “due” for such a spark. Also, the Over is 41-19-3 the Titans’ L63 home games vs. a team w/ a losing road record.

The Chargers w/ Philip Rivers are even more overdue for an offensive resurgence. They are tied for the league lead w/ four red zone turnovers. That means they’re missing out on potential points. They did gain nearly 350 yds last week vs. Pittsburgh, but had only 17 points. While both defenses rank high in the scoring department, they do give a fair number of yards and big plays. Los Angeles now has RB Melvin Gordon back in the fold and it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. With two teams at 5-0 Under their L5 games respectively, this just “feels” like we’re in line for the game to sneak Over a high total.  10* Over Chargers/Titans