10* Miami OH (3:30 ET): This was a matchup I played on the opening week of last season. Only I took Marshall as a slight home favorite and they were able to win and cover in a 31-26 final. This year, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" and I'm going w/ Miami in a revenge spot. The role reversal here is actually quite amazing. At this time last year, optimism was high in Oxford where the RedHawks had just become the first team in NCAA history to start a regular season 0-6 and then finish 6-0 (this was 2016). They lost their bowl game that year, but came into '17 thinking MAC East Title. It didn't happen as they finished a disappointing 5-7 SU (no bowl). Meanwhile, I was high on Marshall at this time last year as they were off a disappointing 3-9 SU campaign in '16 and poised to rebound. Sure enough they did as that season opening win over Miami propelled them to an 8-5 SU season. 

This year, it's Miami's turn to improve while Marshall should decline. Sure, the Thundering Herd do bring back 18 starters for HC Doc Holliday. But one of them is NOT QB Chase Litton, who opted to declare for the NFL Draft. Only problem is Litton wasn't drafted! That hurts not just the player (can't come back), but the school as Litton was a 3,000+ yd passer a year ago. Replacing that kind of production will not easy. The job will likely go to Alex Thomson, a 6'5" grad transfer from FCS Wagner. But he's been limited during summer practice as he missed most of the 2017 season due to a shoulder injury. Marshall has a new offensive coordinator as well. I won't be shocked if this team regresses offensively and even more so defensively. Last year, they went from allowing 35.3 PPG all the way down to 19.9.

Miami was unlucky last year as four of their seven losses came by five points or less. One was to Marshall, a game that saw the Thundering Herd score THREE non-offensive touchdowns, yet still need to bat down a Hail Mary attempt on the game's final play. The RedHawks severely outgained the Herd in that game, 429-267. They enter '18 w/ a senior QB (Gus Ragland) and eight returning starters on both sides of the ball. They certainly haven't forgotten how last year's game went down. Getting this meeting at home is huge. Marshall is generally not a good road team, losing 9 of its last 10 road openers. The home team has covered the last six head to head meetings. After cashing Marshall LY, I say it's Miami's "turn" to open 2018 w/ a big win! 10* Miami OH

10* Washington (3:30 ET): This is a huge opening week matchup with CFP implications. The game takes place in Atlanta. Washington enters the year as the favorite to win the Pac 12. Were they to win here, they'll be favored in every remaining game. Auburn is coming off a highly successful season where they won 10 games, including regular season victories over the two SEC teams, Alabama & Georgia, that made the playoff (lost rematch to UGA in SEC Title Game). The Tigers are the slight favorite here despite being ranked slightly lower, but it wasn't always that way. Over the summer, UW opened as a short favorite. I believe Auburn is going to be a bit of a disappointment in 2018 and will gladly take advantage of the line "jumping the fence" here. Go with the Huskies.

Remember that Washington is just two years removed from making the playoff. I called for them to get there in 2016 and will do so again in 2018. Part of the reason I like them so much is they're experienced. Chris Petersen (great coach) has 17 returning starters back and this one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country. The defense should be outstanding again. They allowed only 16.1 PPG a year ago (playing in the Pac 12!), which was fewer than Auburn. They've now allowed 18.8 PPG or fewer each of the last three seasons. On offense, they return Jake Browning at QB and Myles Gaskin at RB, both seniors. I believe that this is Petersen's best team yet, including the one that got to the CFP two years ago. The Huskies are not underdogs very often, so we're looking at a solid value here. 

Auburn is a good team, but I feel that there are some signs pointing down. For starters, they aren't quite as experienced as they were a year ago. With the game being in Atlanta, many will speak of a "homefield advantage" that exists for Auburn. I'm not so sure of that as the Tigers' L2 games came on this very field (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and they lost both games, the SEC Title Game to Auburn and the Peach Bowl to UCF. Jarrett Stidham enters his second year as the starting QB, but he'll be surrounded by new pieces at the skill positions. Kerryon Johnson, the team's leading rusher from a season ago, departed. At receiver, both Eli Stove and Will Hastings tore their ACL's in the spring and thus will be unavailable at the start of the spring. They could overcome that against a lesser opponent to start the season, but not a top 10 one. 10* Washington

8* Oregon State (12:00 ET): To be clear, the Beavers aren't good. But judging by the spread, you probably already knew that. They were probably the worst Power 5 team in the country last season and a case could be made that the same will hold true in 2018. But, given all that has transpired with Ohio State the last few weeks, would you want to lay this number? I wouldn't. Now if Urban Meyer were coaching here, I'd just as soon lay off the game. Meyer, one of the best ever, would be more than capable of motivating Ohio State to win by a ton in this season opener. But Meyer won't be on the sidelines here, nor the next two weeks. That will be the backdrop Saturday afternoon in Columbus as Ryan Day will be acting coach for the Buckeyes. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points.

Oregon State won just one game last season. It was against FCS Portland State. HC Gary Anderson surprisingly resigned midway through the year and it was a lame duck team the rest of the way. Jonathan Smith takes over in Corvallis and obviously has a lot of work to do. The ONLY game the Beavers will be favored to win comes next week, against Southern Utah, another FCS school. I do believe that somewhere along the way the team will pull an upset. It won't be here, mind you, but I do believe the team will come out motivated. The 6'7" Jake Luton has been name the starting QB and there are 15 returning starters. Oregon State may not have been very competitive in 2017, but they had only one loss by more than 31 points and that was the finale against Oregon when most of the players (particularly the seniors) had mentally checked out. 

Ohio State fans always seemed to have a love/hate relationship w/ QB J.T. Barrett. He is now gone and sophomore Dwayne Haskins takes over the starting reigns. Haskins has game experience from last year, including leading the comeback against rival Michigan. But being the starter is an entirely different animal. In the past two season, the Buckeyes are just 1-3 ATS when favored by 31 points or more. Conversely, Oregon State covered both times it has been a dog of 31 or more. Too much has to go right for a team to cover a spread of this magnitude and I just don't see it happening for Ohio State in a season opener w/ Meyer MIA and all the distractions surrounding that. 8* Oregon State 

8* Texas State (12:00 ET): Everett Withers enters his third year as the HC in San Marcos. Texas State obviously has a lot of work to do as they've won just 2 games each of his first two years on the job. But the good news is that coaches typically hit their stride in year three as they've done the vast majority of the recruiting. This should be the best Bobcats' team we've seen under Withers. Turnover margin was a killer for Texas State last season (-15) as I didn't think they were as bad as the numbers might suggest - on either side of the ball. I like the points here as Rutgers rarely is favored by this many - against anybody. Chris Ash is also entering his third year as HC of the Scarlet Knights, but this will be just the fifth time his team has been favored to win! Take the points. 

Two of the four times Rutgers was previously favored under Ash came against FCS schools. This will be the 1st time being favored by double digits against a FCS school. Last year, the Scarlet Knights lost outright - here at home - to Eastern Michigan. They have just one double digit win in Ash's tenure, that coming LY at Illinois, 35-24. So history isn't exactly on the Scarlet Knights side heading into the season opener. Their depth on the defensive end was weakened by a credit card scandal. An offense that put up only 18.0 PPG a year ago isn't exactly built to cover large spreads. Don't discount the notion that the players may be looking ahead to next week's tilt at Ohio State (who won't have Urban Meyer) either. 

Texas State's numbers defensively were not good last year. They ranked near the bottom nationally, but should be much improved in 2018. The run defense was actually around the top 40 last season, so their already fine in that regard. The talk coming out of camp is that the secondary will be the most improved position group on the team. If that's the case, the Bobcats should be in fine shape here. Rutgers will be starting a true freshman at QB Saturday, Arthur Sitkowski, a 4-star recruit. Again, and this has been a theme throughout this three-game report, I'm just not interested in laying double digits with a first time starter at the most important position. Two years ago, in Withers' first game, Texas State shocked Ohio as 20-pt road underdogs. I think they'll be more than competitive here. 8* Texas State

8* Florida Atlantic (12:00 ET): Under the tutiledge of Lane Kiffin, FAU took the College Football world by storm last year. They went 11-3, including 8-0 in Conference USA where they were heads and shoulders above every other team. A lot of people, myself included, were on that bandwagon as the Owls entered last season as the most experienced team in the country. They rewarded their backers by going 10-4 ATS at the betting window. Now they'll enter 2018 as the favorite not only to win C-USA, but also to possibly represent the "Group of 5" in a "New Year's Six" Bowl Game. I believe a decline from LY is all but inevitable, but that doesn't mean I think they're three touchdowns worse than Oklahoma, a team w/ its own question marks. Take the points here.

Like Kiffin, Lincoln Riley walked into an ideal situation his 1st year on the job. He took over for the legendary Bob Stoops, but was inheriting a fairly experienced Sooners' squad led by eventual Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is now gone and we'll get a chance - for the 1st time - to see how Riley's offense operates w/o him. My guess is that things will work themselves out in Norman. But in the first game? Kyler Murray is the replacement at QB and won't come close to Mayfield's production of a season ago. Then there is the losses sustained on the defensive side of the ball. This will be far from a dominant group and there really isn't a standout player. The OU defense surrendered 27.1 PPG a year ago, but was consistently bailed out by an offense that averaged 40+ PPG for a third straight year. It'll take a lot of points to cover this spread and I'm not sure OU is capable at this point. 

FAU also has to replace LY's starting QB (Jason Driskell). Heading into Saturday, Kiffin is being rather coy about just who that replacement will be. It'll be one of two transfers: either Chris Robinson, ironically from Oklahoma, or DeAndre Johnson from Florida State. The issue of not know which QB to prepare for will hurt the OU defense. Whomever the QB is for FAU can lean on RB Devin Singletary, who ran for 1922 yards and 32 touchdowns last season. Remember that the Sooners defense was gashed badly by Georgia in LY's College Football Playoff. FAU also returns 10 starters on defense, so they will be strong on that side of the ball. I look for the underdog to score enough to stay well within this generous opening week number. 8* Florida Atlantic

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): Willie Fritz is hoping to do at Tulane what Dave Clawson has already accomplished at Wake Forest. Fritz will be entering his third year coaching the Green Wave. He has yet to make a bowl game (were very close LY), but this will be his best team yet. Clawson went 3-9 SU in each of his first two-seasons in Winston-Salem, but then jumped to 7 and 8 wins each of the last two years, making a bowl both times. The Demon Deacons were a bit of an overachiever though last year as they went 4-4 in ACC play despite never being favored by more than one point in any game. As for Tulane, they took on nine bowl eligible teams and finished 5-7 SU. Their season came to an end when SMU stopped them at the goal line in a 41-38 loss in the regular season finale. 

Tulane is used to opening the season on a Thursday night. This will be the fifth time in the last six years that they have done so. Two years ago, in Fritz's very 1st game, they lost 7-3 at Wake Forest. So this is technically a revenge spot. Last year's opener was a lot easier as they routed FCS Grambling St 43-14. They played a lot of close games in 2017 w/ seven decided by 7 pts or less. Only three times did they lose by double digits and all took place on the road. One was at Oklahoma. So it's key for the Green Wave to get this game at home. Their largest loss at Yulman Stadium last year was six points. When Fritz came here three years ago, he installed the spread option, but didn't have the right personnel. Now he does and w/ nine starters back, including a senior QB (Jonathan Banks), this should be Tulane's best offense under HC Fritz. 

Wake Forest plays in the tough ACC Atlantic. After finishing in a three-way tie for third place in 2017, I envision a drop this year. With four-year starter John Wolford having graduated and his presumed replacement Kendall Hinton, Jr suspended, the Demon Deacons will enter the season opener w/ a true frosh (Sam Hartman) at QB. On the road, mind you. Defensively, stopping the run was not this team's forte in 2017 (allowed almost 190 YPG), so I expect them to struggle against the spread option. This will be just the third time under Clawson that Wake is a road favorite and they've gone 0-2 ATS previously. Take the points. 8* Tulane

10* Minnesota (7:00 ET): What a horrific spot this is for New Mexico State. The team just played Saturday and looked terrible in a 29-7 (home) loss to Wyoming. Thus, I wish them luck having to visit a Power 5 school tonight. The Aggies were a really nice story in 2017 as they made (and won!) their first bowl game in 57 years (finished the season 7-6 SU). But now reality is about to set in. They were severely outclassed by a Wyoming team that had to replace a first round draft pick at QB (Josh Allen), getting outgained 449-135. The Aggies didn't even score until 1:16 left in the game and they had just seven first downs. This cross-country flight shapes up as a disastrous spot and I'm undaunted when it comes to laying the points. 

PJ Fleck came to Minnesota last year w/ a lot of hype as he'd just led Western Michigan to a New Year's Six Bowl Game. Obviously, life in the Big 10 is a lot tougher. The Gophers opened 2017 at 3-0, but lost seven of their final nine games. They should be improved this season. Note that in his second year at WMU, Fleck led his team to a seven-win improvement. That won't happen here, but the Gophers figure to at least be a factor in the Big 10 West. They'll get better QB play this year and are more experienced. Defensively, they should have little problem against an anemic NMSU attack that couldn't muster anything in the opener.

After factoring in sacks, NMSU had -9 yards rushing last week. RB Jason Huntley averaged just 2.4 yards per carry. That simply won't get it done against anybody. Now with the team likely to fall behind big here, look for the Aggies' offense to become pretty one-dimensional. Fleck understands the importance of starting the season strong and isn't likely to take his foot off the gas here. It helps that New Mexico State figures to be fatigued in the second half, playing its second game in five days after a cross-country trip. Defensively, NMSU figures to have its hands full stopping WR Tyler Johnson. I just don't see anyway the underdog keeps this one close after looking so bad in that first game. 10* Minnesota

10* Hawaii (7:30 ET): Neither of these teams were very profitable at the betting window last season. For Colorado State, that was something new. The Rams had gone 9-4 ATS in 2016, but dropped down to 4-9 ATS in '17, despite posting the same 7-6 straight up record as the year before. HC Mike Bobo enters his fourth season at Fort Collins and has gone 7-6 SU every season. Every season has ended w/ a bowl loss. Over in the MWC's West Division, Hawaii hasn't been profitable - or particularly good on the field - for some time now. Last year, they went 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS. The Warriors are now just 11-26-2 at the betting window the L3 seasons w/ the last two coming w/ Nick Rolovich at the helm. As a result, they're a big underdog for this conference opener. 

Hawaii enters 2018 as one of the least experienced teams in the entire country and has just nine returning starters. They ended last season by losing five straight as well as 9 of their last 10 games. So there isn't a ton of optimism out on the island surrounding this team. However, I do expect an improvement in wins despite a decent amt of talent having transferred out. They will run the run and shoot on offense and a big key here is that WR John Ursua will be back on the field. Ursua was lost to injury in the middle of the season last year. At the time, he had been averaging 131.8 yards and 9.3 catches per game. So he's a big-time weapon for an offense that averaged only 22.8 PPG a year ago. The overall team's decline coincided w/ Ursua's injury, which should not be a surprise.

Since becoming an official member of the Mt West Conference, Hawaii hasn't had much luck against CSU. They've lost all four meetings as conference rivals, including 51-21 LY as 6-pt home dogs. In fact, they're just 1-10 SU the L11 meetings w/ CSU, predating their time in the MWC. Incredibly, Hawaii has won just one time in the Mt Time Zone since 2012! However, the big key here is that the Rams also enter 2018 just as inexperienced as Hawaii. The have the same number of returning starters (9) and will need to find a way to replace a four-year starter at QB (Nick Stevens). Another key is that Bobo has been away from the team due to health concerns (numbness in feet). As the offense's primary playcaller, that's a tough situation. He was hospitalized less than two weeks ago and it was only recently determined (as in Wednesday) that he could be on the sidelines Saturday! The QB situation is also dicey w/ Collin Hill not yet cleared to return. On the defensive side of the ball, there's been massive turnover within the coaching staff. In my opinion, this is way too many points for an inexperienced team to lay in its first game, especially w/ so many major question marks at key spots. 10* Hawaii 

10* Alabama (8:45 ET): It's an all-SEC National Championship Game and so it's only appropriate that it will be played in Atlanta. Strangely enough, Alabama and Georgia don't play all that often. This will be just the fifth meeting in the Nick Saban-era (and only the 3rd since '09) and first w/ his fmr DC Kirby Smart as Georgia HC. UGA last beat 'Bama in '07 (Saban's 1st year) and hasn't visited Tuscaloosa since. The last meeting, held two seasons ago in Athens, was won by the Crimson Tide 38-10, as 1.5-pt dogs. The Tide also beat the 'Dawgs here in Atlanta (in the Georgia Dome) back in the 2012 SEC Championship. Ironically, Bama has played the team they just ousted from the playoff, Clemson, more times in the L3 seasons than they have this conference rival. So this is really nothing like the last all-SEC National Champ Game, Bama vs. LSU, back in '11. 

Alabama beat Clemson in the CFB Semifinal (Sugar Bowl), 24-6, as 3.5-pt favorites. That was a heavily hyped revenge game from LY's Champ Game and the end of a compelling trilogy. Compared to most games, and particularly UGA's Rose Bowl win over Oklahoma (more on that later), Bama-Clemson III was a real defensive affair. The Tide held the Tigers to just 188 total yards (gained only 261 themselves). A late INT return made the final score seem more lopsided than the game actually was (10-6 game late in 3Q). That said, Bama remains the dominant force in College Football. They are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, key because UGA is #2! The key is they allow 4.6 PPG fewer than the Bulldogs. In 9 of 13 games, they've allowed 10 pts or less. This is a team that has won 40 of its last 43 games straight up, including 24 of 26 against the SEC. They've won 11 straight games on turf (9-2 ATS). 

While playing for the National Championship has become "old hat" for Saban and Alabama, Georgia is gunning for its 1st title since 1980, the days of Herschel Walker! Don't be surprised if the spot is a little "big for them." QB Jake Fromm is a true frosh and no team has won a Nat'l Title w/ a true frosh as its starting QB since '85. Yes, they were facing Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, but the defense giving up 48 pts and 531 total yds is a little concerning, no? Also, there's the matter of Smart being a Saban disciple. Saban is 11-0 SU all-time against former assistants w/ every game decided by at least two touchdowns. Talk about the teacher knowing how to beat the student. Yes, these teams are built similarly, but Bama is better and used to the stage. I don't make a habit of betting against Nick Saban and won't here. Remember that Georgia did lose at Auburn earlier this year, 40-17. 10* Alabama

8* Oklahoma (5:00 ET): It's not a "classic" (Big 10 vs. Pac 12) Rose Bowl matchup, but the first of two CFP semifinals could be a classic nonetheless as it's a battle of offense vs. defense here w/ Oklahoma taking on Georgia. OU was #4 in the country during the regular season in points per game while UGA is #3 in points allowed. In fact, the top three teams in the country in points allowed (Bama-Clemson-UGA) all made the CFP, leaving the Sooners as the outlier in the department. But Heisman winner Baker Mayfield (sick or not) can more than make up for that discrepancy as Oklahoma has a huge edge at the most important position (QB) in this game. Remember, Georgia's starting QB (Jacob Fromm) is a true freshman. Only one true frosh in the history of College Football (ironically, Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway, in 1985) has led his team to a National Championship. Due to concerns over Mayfield's health (he's playing obviously!), this line has been bet up and there's now plenty of value on the Sooners.

Led by Mayfield, who meshes so well w/ coordinator turned HC Lincoln Riley, the OU offense averaged 44.9 PPG in the regular season and a FBS-high 583.3 yards per game. The offense is more than just Mayfield, however, as it is loaded at all the skill positions not to mention the offensive line is also one of the best in the country. The running back and receiver groups are both incredibly deep and TE Mark Andrews won the Mackey Award for being the best at his position. There is no doubt in my mind that OU is going to score plenty in this game. The fewest pts they scored in any game this year was 31 and they won both times they were an underdog, beating Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road. But what about the Sooners' defense? Clearly, it will be labeled the "worst" of the four defenses in the CFP and that's fair. But it's a group that improved down the stretch, most notably holding TCU to 20 and 17 points in two matchups.

Georgia's defense, save for the loss to Auburn, is pretty sick. But it should be noted that they have not faced a passing attack anywhere close to what Oklahoma brings to the table. Generally speaking, QB play is pretty subpar in the SEC these days. I worry about Fromm and the UGA offense, even though they come in averaging almost 35 PPG. I expect the Sooners' defense to "stack the box" and dare Fromm to beat them through the air. The Georgia passing attack only averages 170 YPG and if they fall behind here, that could mean big-time trouble. It's worth mentioning that OU did open as a 1-pt favorite here, so again, I think we've gotten to a point where there's value in taking them. Oklahoma has won and covered the last three times it has taken on a SEC opponent, including bowl wins over Alabama (2013) and Auburn (last year). They averaged 40 PPG in those two bowl wins. 8* Oklahoma 

Update: Auburn's top corner, Carlton Davis, is now out (illness) and that's huge for Central Florida and their offense! 

10* Central Florida (12:30 ET): We have seen the "Group of 5" team step up in the "New Year's Six" Bowl Game before, even winning outright the first two years of the current format w/ Boise State upsetting Arizona in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl and Houston doing the same to Florida State in the 2016 Peach Bowl. Last year, your ATS results may vary as Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 24-16, a game that fell right on/near the number. But the MAC always stinks in bowl games and this year we're back to an AAC team, UCF, who was the ONLY team in the country to finish the regular season unbeaten. Auburn, after losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia, has to be a little disappointed w/ this bowl assignment and I'm taking the points.

UCF comes in w/ the top ranked offense in the country, averaging an astounding 49.4 points per game. That's a big reason why HC Scott Frost was hired away by Nebraska. Frost will coach this game though and the "Group of 5" teams have become used to this spot as Houston's Tom Hermann and Western Michigan's PJ Fleck were both set to depart when they coached their bowl games the L3 years. Now, UCF's conference brethren Memphis (who was #2 in FBS in scoring) was just held in check in its bowl game by Iowa State. UCF will have to deal w/ an even more stout defense (Auburn #7 in def efficiency), but as alluded to above, it will also probably be a less motivated one than what Memphis faced vs. Iowa State. It needs to be stated the the Golden Knights scored 45+ pts eight times during the regular season, including each of the last four games.

Let's point out that Auburn did lose three times this year. Now those losses were to Clemson, Georgia (both in CFP!) and LSU (who they led by 20). But still, it's not like they are infallible. All their big wins this year, most notably the Alabama one and the first Georgia game, came at Jordan-Hare. This is always a tough matchup for the Power 5 school because it's hard to get motivated to play a smaller school, especially when you're in a position like Auburn is here, that being you hoped to be in the playoff (before losing the SEC Champ Game). Note the Tigers were only 3-4-2 ATS as favorites this year, including 2-3-2 laying double digits. Now those seven games all found them favored by 15 or more pts, but still, it was also against lesser competition. RB Kamryn Pettway will not play here for the Tigers and despite missing the L5 games, he still led the SEC in rush yards per game. Auburn has lost three of its last four bowl games. 10* UCF

8* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): The Big 10 has proven itself to be quite formidable this bowl season, topping all conference's w/ a perfect 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS), led by Ohio State's 24-7 win over USC last night. Wisconsin is the team the Buckeyes beat in the Conference Championship and while they're prob NOT the Big 10's 2nd best team (Penn State is), the Badgers were unbeaten going into their last game and that should be respected, even though the Orange Bowl against Miami qualifies as a "true" road game. This is a line that dropped quite a bit during the week (I didn't really understand why), but has since risen back. That reminds me of the Va Tech-OK State betting pattern where I was on the favorite (who ended up covering). Lay the points here. 

Remember when "The U was back?" How long is this tired narrative going to be pushed. Like Wisconsin, Miami was undefeated late in the year. They were thinking playoff following a 41-8 demolition of Notre Dame here in Coral Gables and then the team ran its mark to 10-0 (SU) after beating Virginia 44-28 the following week. But then, the bottom dropped out. They were upset at Pitt (24-14), as 12-pt favorites, in the regular season finale. Then, Clemson absolutely hammered them in the ACC Title Game, 38-3. Now injuries played a significant role in that late season swoon, but it's not like they've gone away. TE Chris Herndon is out as is WR Ahmmon Richards. That's two of the team's top receivers right there. QB Malik Rosier was awful down the stretch, completing less than 50% of his passes the L6 games. Oh by the way, the 'Canes are also w/o RB Mark Walton. 

None of that is good news when getting set to face what is, statistically speaking, the top defense in all the land. Wisconsin gives up just 253.2 YPG (only 92.6 on the ground) and 13.2 points per game. All the focus here will probably be on Miami's turnover chain and while it's true they did force 30 turnovers over the course of the season, Wisconsin wasn't far behind w/ 26. The 'Canes live and die by TO's, but I'll trust QB Alex Hornibrook to be careful w/ the ball here. The Badgers were 5-0 SU in the reg season as a road favorite, covering the spread in four of those games. 8* Wisconsin

10* Washington (4:00 ET): What a difference one year as makes as last year at this time, we were having a discussion over which of these two teams belonged in the College Football Playoff. Washington got the nod and was generally outclassed by Alabama, losing 24-7 as 2-TD underdogs. Penn State was "relegated" to a Rose Bowl appearance and after an impressive start to that game (led big), they lost to USC, 52-49. So both schools will be looking for a bit of atonement in this year's edition of the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams went 10-2 SU in the reg season, neither making their respective conference title game. Washington lost to Arizona State and Stanford (both on the road) while Penn State fell to Ohio State and Michigan State (also both on the road). It seems like an even matchup, but I'll take the points.

The Fiesta Bowl has been kind to Penn State in the past as they are 6-0 SU all-time in this game, including a win in the de facto 1986 Title Game (vs. Miami FL). Their two losses this year came by a combined four points and over the L2 seasons, four of their five losses have been by a field goal or less (49-10 loss at Michigan the exception). I went "against the grain" w/ this Nittany Lions team for 2017 and predicted they would disappoint, so two reg season losses did not surprise me. They are a VERY public side here, something else that doesn't surprise me, as they're the more "known" commodity. But what bettors really need to know is that Washington has one of the top run defenses in the country (just 2.6 YPG allowed) and that's the key to beating Penn State. 

In their losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions ran the ball for only 156 yds total, despite the presence of Saquon Barkley. I expect them to struggle to establish the run again here. Note that this game marks the first time all season UW has been an underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the playoff game vs. Alabama is the ONLY time Chris Petersen's team has been getting points. We have two offenses that have both scored 30+ pts ten times during the regular season, but both also allow 15.5 PPG or fewer (UW allows 14.5 PPG). Penn State's offensive line is a little suspect (74th in sack rate allowed) and I believe the Washington defense, led by Myles Gaskin, will be the difference in this one. 10* Washington

8* Memphis (12:30 ET): So, Iowa State entered bowl season tied w/ Fresno State (who ended up covering their bowl game) for the best ATS record in the country. Led by a defense which allowed just 21.0 PPG, they pulled upsets of Oklahoma and TCU along the way. So the Cyclones certainly won't be intimidated here by the high-flying offense of Memphis (47.7 PPG). However, there are several disadvantages they are facing here. Not only is Memphis' offense far superior (ISU only +21 YPG), they also have a large edge on special teams. Then there is a matter that this is the Liberty Bowl, Memphis' home stadium. The Tigers won all seven home games during the regular season, by an average of 19.3 PPG, while averaging 50.1 themselves. Memphis averaged slightly more PPG than both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, ISU's two Big 12 rivals.

I think it's definitely fair to say that Iowa State overachieved in 2017. They were only favored in four games. They won all four of those, also going 4-0 ATS. But the key was pulling three different outright upsets and going 6-2 ATS as a dog. I don't see them "sneaking up" on Memphis here. Originally picked for second to last in the 10-team Big XII, the 'Clones are looking for their first bowl win since 2009. They have not been to a bowl since 2012. Each of the previous four seasons saw them win three games or fewer. It was not a particularly strong finish to the regular season w/ them dropping three of the final four games. I just don't see the offense necessary here to keep pace with the favored Tigers. A similar call-back I have is to the Va Tech-OK State game where I sided w/ the latter (was correct). Also, I should point out that the 1st time we saw a team play its bowl at home, it was a complete blowout w/ FAU burying Akron.

The Memphis' offense was not only second nationally in points per game, it was also fourth in yards per game (548.2). Led by QB Riley Ferguson, who completed 63% of his pass attempts for 3,971 yds and 36 TDs, they are lethal. All-American WR Anthony Miller had 92 catches for 1400+ yds, 17 of them going for TD's. RB Darrell Henderson averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards per carry w/ he and Patrick Taylor, Jr combining for over 1900 yards over land. A final key here is turnovers. Iowa State won all seven games where it was positive in TO margin and winless when it did not win that battle. They have not lost a single fumble this season, which is somewhat preposterous. However, Memphis actually has a better TO margin at +14 vs. +11. 8* Memphis

10* Northwestern (4:30 ET): The reality of the modern bowl structure is that you're going to always have a fair number of subpar teams in the postseason. This year saw seven teams make a bowl that were outscored during the regular season. One of those is Kentucky, who - at least among "Power 5" (conference) reps - may be the weakest school involved. Not only were the Wildcats outscored by an average of about a full field goal per game, but they were also outgained by about 75 yards per game as well! Being that they are an overachiever, you also might be surprised to learn that they were 3-9 ATS, the worst such record among bowl teams. They rode a very easy SEC schedule (no 'Bama, Auburn or LSU!) to get here. 

Northwestern, unlike UK, closed its regular season strong. While it was apparent that no one would overtake Wisconsin in the Big 10 West, the Wildcats tried their best by winning and covering the last seven games! They did lose to both Penn State and Wisconsin (two top 10 teams), but besides a head-scratcher against Duke, that was it. Their 9-3 ATS record is among the best in the country and they were 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS favorites. Furthermore, while Kentucky was outscored and outgained during the year, N'western not only outgained opponents by almost 50 YPG, they also outscored them by almost 10 PPG. Basic metrics indicate that this year's Music City Bowl is a real mismatch. 

UK was outscored 86-20 in its final two regular season games, which came against Georgia and Louisville. Overall, they've dropped four of six. Defensively, Northwestern would appear to have a giant edge. They allowed just 20 points - total - the last three games (just 1 TD in the last two) while UK allowed 40+ pts three different times and 35.8 PPG overall over the second half of the season. There are also two specific areas where the Wildcats have the edge defensively. One is against the run (which will be handy here as run is what both offenses like to do). N'western is top 10 in the nation in yards allowed per carry (3.3) while UK is 89th (4.8). In the red zone, the Wildcats are dead last among bowl teams allowing points on over 92% of possessions. N'western is third best at 67.7%. Kentucky has not been successful in bowl games recently, last winning one in 2009 (lost last three). This is, on paper, one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season. 10* Northwestern

8* Texas A&M (1:00 ET): After going 3-9 SU in each of Dave Clawson's first two seasons on the job, Wake Forest has now put forth B2B 7-win campaigns and is now in position to achieve its most wins in any season since the 2008 team. But they'll have to get by Texas A&M in this year's Belk Bowl to do so. While the Demon Deacons somewhat surprised me w/ a 7-5 SU reg season, A&M was largely a disappointment in finishing w/ the same record and that cost (now) fmr HC Kevin Sumlin his job. While they're thrilled to be welcoming in Jimbo Fisher (left Florida State) next year in College Station, there has been some question over the Aggies' level of motivation. I'm not buying it and will take the points even though WF is playing a virtual home game in Charlotte (not far from campus in Winston-Salem).

Wake Forest finished w/ the same efficiency rating at Miami did in the reg season, which may surprise some folks. QB John Wolford improved exponentially this year, going from a negative TD-INT ratio his first three seasons as the starter to 25-6 this year. That improvement is also tied to an experienced offensive line, but that group will have its hands full in this game w/ an A&M front seven that was top five nationally in sacks (despite losing Myles Garrett to the NFL!). This is - easily - the best offense WF has had under Clawson, but remember they are w/o top WR Greg Dortch. His absence made the winning record all the more surprising to me. At 8-3-1 ATS overall, the Deacons definitely qualify as a "surprise." They did win their bowl game LY (as a 12-pt underdog!) against another school (Temple) that was going through a HC change, but I'm interested to see how they now perform in the role of favorite. There were just two times in the reg season that WF was asked to lay more than a TD against a FBS foe, one of them being the finale against Duke, which they promptly lost outright. 

Certainly, laying a field goal to a SEC opponent is uncharted territory for the Demon Deacons. I see two pretty evenly matched teams here w/ the coaching change for A&M being the reason for the field goal advantage. Like A&M, the Deacons have a suspect defense, one that allows 444 YPG for the season and 569 yards over the L4 games. So, look for the Aggies to be able to move the ball in this one. In the five games w/ Nick Starkel as the starting QB, their offense averaged 36 PPG. He will play here. The five teams that beat A&M this year were: LSU, Auburn, Miss St, Alabama and UCLA. With the exception of the Bruins (who A&M led big in the season opener), all those teams are better than Wake Forest. 8* Texas A&M

8* Washington State (9:00 ET): We've seen a significant line move for this year's edition of the Holiday Bowl. Clearly, early bettors are banking on the notion that Michigan State will be "motivated" by being "slighted" in favor of rival Michigan, who got the better bowl spot on New Year's Day (Outback Bowl vs. S Carolina) despite losing to Sparty in the regular season. In my mind, what we now have is some nice value on a Wazzu team that should be hungry to atone for LY's bowl "no-show" against Minnesota. This is a program that still only has ONE bowl victory going all the way back to 2003. Perhaps, all things considered, it should be the Cougars that are the more motivated side come Thursday night. Take the points. 

Both teams finished their respective regular seasons 9-3 SU. Both come in ranked in the top 20. Truthfully, I wasn't as high as the pollsters were on either team. I said it multiple times throughout the regular season, but Michigan State was among the most fortunate teams in the country, record-wise. Consider that their point differential in Big 10 play was only +15 despite a 7-2 SU record. To put that number in its proper perspective, consider that Penn State (also 7-2 SU in Big 10 play) outscored its Big 10 foes by 186 points! Ohio State's point differential was +238! Sparty's Big 10 point differential was actually "in the black" (negative!) before thumping Rutgers, 40-7, in the last game. All other Big 10 wins were by 10 pts or less, four by a TD or less and that doesn't even include "stealing" a cover vs. Indiana w/ a late TD (won by 8). 

Wazzu outgained opponents by 132.2 YPG, better than MSU's 80.5. I have them rated slightly higher than Sparty in my own personal power ratings, so that's where the value comes in. I concede that the Cougs haven't done a whole lot worth mentioning outside Pullman this season. However, a key here is that their defense is far better than most realize. I expect this to be a low-scoring game where points could be at a premium. Note that in HALF their games this year, Michigan State failed top 18 points on offense! Led by QB Luke Falk, Wazzu comes in averaging 446.4 YPG on offense. They scored 30+ in eight games. Maybe they're held in check, but plus the points they are the play. 8* Washington State

8* Oklahoma State (5:15 ET): Both of these squads had bigger aspirations than the Camping World Bowl, but ironically I thought both had the potential for more severe regression in 2017. Va Tech was coming off a 10-4 SU year where they represented the Coastal in the ACC Title Game. But, from the start this year, I preferred Miami over them. A 7-1 SU start was a total mirage as the Hokies were, in fact, hammered down in Coral Gables. To be frank, they played a pretty weak schedule for an ACC squad and lost by double digits to both top 10 teams they faced. Their defense is good, but I just don't see them having the offense neccessary to keep up w/ QB Mason Rudolph and the Pokes. Lay the points.

Oklahoma State finished their regular season 9-3 SU, same as Virginia Tech. A win here and they make it three straight 10-win seasons for HC Mike Gundy (and 4 out of 5!). In essence, the Cowboys' hopes and dreams for the year ended w/ a 62-52 loss to rival Oklahoma in early November. (Bedlam played early this year). I'm not putting much stock into a late season loss to Kansas State as the Pokes had little to play for while the Wildcats were fighting for bowl eligibility. Another similarity (besides WL record) to Va Tech is the Pokes lost to the two best teams on the schedule and beat West Virginia. But they also beat Iowa State, which is a better win than anything Va Tech has on its resume. There were actually two common opponents (that both beat) - WVU and Pitt. Oklahoma State's MOV was 49 pts while Va Tech's was only 13.

This is the classic "clash of styles" matchup. Oklahoma State averages 46.3 PPG (3rd in FBS). Va Tech allows only 13.5 (5th). When I look at which unit is likely to come closer to its average, I heavily lean to the former's offense. For the 1st time in Big 12 history, we saw a 4,000+ yd QB (Rudolph), a 1,000+ yd RB (Justice Hill) and TWO 1,000+ yd WR's (James Washington and Marcell Ateman). Washington is the nation's top receiver. The Pokes were #2 in total yardage per game (575.5) and #1 in passing (392.3). Yes, Va Tech posted three regular season shutouts, but two of those were against Delaware (FCS) and Old Dominion. Getting back to the Hokies' inability to "keep pace" here, an already suspect offense will be w/o its leading rusher (Travon McMillian) and receiver (Cam Phillips). QB Josh Jackson only has a 9-7 TD-INT ratio vs. Power 5 teams and the Cowboys' defense is better than you think. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Iowa (5:15 ET): The Hawkeyes have (infamously) not won a bowl game since 2010, dropping five in a row - both SU and ATS. But there's a big difference between this year's Pinstripe Bowl and those last five postseason appearances, that being they'll be favored here! Sure enough, four of those last five bowl games saw an unranked Hawkeyes squad "stepping up in class" to take on a ranked foe. That won't be the case this year vs. Boston College. B.C. does enter this game having won five of six, including victories over bowl teams Florida State, Virginia and Louisville. But they also lost starting QB Anthony Brown late in the season. I'm "hanging my hat" on Iowa being highly motivated here and I shouldn't have to remind you that they absolutely walloped Ohio State 55-24 last month. 

This will not be confused with a Big 12 regular season game. These two squads like to run the ball and play good defense. Both are top seven nationally against the pass. The final result will likely be decided by who runs the ball more effectively. Boston College RB AJ Dillon, a freshman, went for 1432 yards. Twice he went for 200+ yds in a game. Not to be outdone, Iowa's Akrum Wadley was a 1,000+ yard back and is also a receiving threat. The key though is the rushing defenses. B.C. is 103rd in the nation, giving up 5.0 yards per carry (198 YPG!). Iowa is significantly better in that area, allowing only 4.1 YPG and they also allowed only nine rushing TD's ALL YEAR! The Eagles defense may also be w/o DE Harold Landry, which would be significant.

Again, Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24 this season. Thus, it was somewhat head-scratching that they finished w/ losses in two of the final three games, including one to Purdue. They scored just 29 pts total in the two games after beating Ohio State. But they did win six of the seven games they were favored in (straight up). They actually average 28.3 PPG and give up only 19.9. That's a better scoring margin than B.C. against what grades out as a harder schedule. I feel this line has decreased solely based on past Iowa bowl failures, but this is the first time in a long time where the Hawkeyes enter the bowl as the better team on paper. I have them rated as better on BOTH sides of the football. 10* Iowa 

8* Florida State (1:30 ET): Save for Florida Atlantic (covered!), no team is a bigger favorite this bowl season than the Seminoles. This may surprise you given that this was the most disappointing season down in Tallahassee in recent memory. Not only did the 'Noles need to reschedule a 12th reg season game (vs. LA Monroe!) just to get to six wins, there's been some debate over their bowl eligibility as one of those wins was against a Delaware State program and maybe shouldn't have counted. But where there's no debate is FSU's talent level compared to that of Southern Miss. Playing for an interim HC, there is a question of motivation here, but I feel the 'Noles show up "ready to play" and I'll lay the points.

Comparing the stats between these teams is not "apples to apples" as one team plays in the ACC and the other in Conference USA. Southern Miss won three straight and six of eight to finish the reg season at 8-4 SU, but the teams they beat are a real "rogue's gallery." Their "best" wins were on the road against La Tech and Marshall, both on the road. But those also came by a combined eight points. The other six wins were all against non-bowl teams. In fact, the Golden Eagles didn't even play a single opponent ranked in my top 65! So that's why they're such a prohibitive underdog in this spot. They shared one common opponent w/ FSU in the reg season, that being La Monroe. While the Seminoles beat the WarHawks by 32, the USM prevailed by just 11.

Florida State's season essentially was tanked in the opener, when they lost to Alabama (were ranked #3 in the country at the time!) w/ QB Deondre Francois being lost for the season to injury. There's also a number of "healthy scratches" here with some players electing to skip the Independence Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. But those who remain will play hard for interim HC Odell Haggins, who has been a position coach here dating back to 1994 and may be coaching for his job w/ the Willie Taggert regime set to take over next year. It's also interesting that despite the majority of bets in this game being place on the underdog, the line has actually increased. That's typically a sign of "sharper dollars" being on the other side. 8* Florida State

8* UCLA (9:00 ET): This is one of two bowl games on Tuesday's slate where the line has been dramatically impacted by the status of one team's QB. In this instance, Josh Rosen (concussion) is still not cleared to play for UCLA and that has them now listed as sizable underdogs to Kansas State in this year's edition of the Cactus Bowl. Rosen, who I would choose if I had the #1 draft pick in April (assuming he declares), would undoubtedly be a significant loss for UCLA. But often times, with injuries such as this one, we see an overreaction by the marketplace and that's what I'm banking on here. There's always the outside chance Rosen does play (and we'd have a great line if he did!), but at the same time, it's not as if Kansas State's defense is very good. Take the points. 

 Yes, UCLA's defense is very bad at stopping the run and K-State has a significant edge on special teams. However, as far as the UCLA run defense goes, will the Wildcats be able to take advantage? Their offense is down to a third-string QB (Skylar Thompson). Tip your cap to the way this team finished its reg season (wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State), but those two victories came by a combined six points. Kansas State is a program that I'd prefer much more in the underdog role, not as a favorite. They were favored only FIVE times in the reg season, one of those against a FCS program, another against one of the worst FBS teams in the country (Charlotte) and then also Baylor and Kansas (went a combined 2-22). They're being overvalued here. 

It's not like the Kansas State pass defense is very good either. So either Rosen or backup Devon Modster, should have a very big night here. The Wildcats' secondary allowed a completion percentage of 62.2 in the reg season with opposing QB's averaging 310 YPG. They gave up 432 YPG overall. As maligned as UCLA's run defense has been (rightfully so), they improved down the stretch (held USC to only 153 yds on 41 carries!) and Kansas State's offensive line will be w/o its starting right tackle Dalton Risner. If this is HC Bill Snyder's "swan song" for K-State, the team will certainly want to send him out a winner. But the UCLA players will certainly want to impress the incoming Chip Kelly regime as well. 8* UCLA 

8* West Virginia (1:30 ET): Most are simply writing WVU off here as they enter the Heart of Dallas Bowl w/o their starting QB, Will Grier. That's definitely a big blow, but NOT something they can't overcome and in the past, I've seen bowl teams overcome greater adversity. Furthermore, as a result of the Grier injury, the oddsmakers have gotten REALLY generous here. Remember that w/o Grier, the Mountaineers still scored 31 points and gained nearly 400 yds in the regular season finale. Now, they still lost because they were facing Oklahoma and the Sooners' offense is an absolute juggernaut. But Utah is not Oklahoma and won't be scoring anywhere near 59 points. I like the idea of WVU HC Dana Holgorsen having this much time to prepare. Take the points. 

Rather than "roll over" w/o their starting QB, I expect this dog to be quite motivated Tuesday afternoon. The West Virginia seniors have yet to cover a bowl game, winning only one and that was the 2015 Cactus Bowl (by a single point!) over Arizona State. Things were going quite well in Morgantown before the Grier injury as the team was 7-3 SU (went 10-3 SU last season). But they lost the L2 games to Texas and Oklahoma. Both of those teams are better than what they'll face here. Yes, I concede not having Grier does put a damper on the 16th ranked offense in FBS. But we saw Holgorsen get creative in the Oklahoma game (wildcat!) and I'm sure he'll have multiple wrinkles here. Also, the irony is that it many be the WVU defense that keeps them in this one. Exotic blitzing is something we see regularly from DC Tony Gibson and Utah's offensive line is not good. 

In addition to the Grier injury, another reason the Utes are getting plenty of "love" here is HC Kyle Whittingham's 10-1 SU bowl record. But how many times during that stretch have the Utes been an underdog? (A: more than not). The Utes were 6-2 SU/ATS as favorites this regular season, but just two of those games were away from Salt Lake and both came early (as in September). They also won both (Arizona, BYU) by just six points each. Too many people are writing off the Mounties here and I'll play 'contrarian' and grab the points. 8* West Virginia

10* Fresno State (8:30 ET): When you talk about this year's biggest "surprise" teams, the name Fresno State simply must be on your short list. In the 1st year under HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?), the Bulldogs improved from 1-11 to 9-4 SU, making it the best turnaround job in the entire country. They won a division (MWC West) that was supposed to be San Diego State's for the taking and played Boise State very tough in the Conference Championship Game (I had 'em plus the points). It's been a LONG time since FSU won a bowl game (2007), so they will be highly motivated, something that I'm not sure will be the case on the Houston side. Also, Fresno State is no stranger to making this trip to the Island as they played here during the regular season. 

Houston is a program two years removed from upsetting Florida State in the Peach Bowl. They did not fare well in LY's bowl game, a 34-10 loss to San Diego State in Las Vegas. Now in their first year under the direction of Major Applewhite (Tom Herman bolted for Texas), they'll again have to play through some coaching turbulence as OC Brian Johnson has left for the same gig at Florida. Applewhite was previously the OC under Herman, so that may not matter much, but it's certainly not a positive. While the Cougars did upset USF during the regular season, they also suffered outright losses to both Tulsa and Tulane. We've seen teams unaccustomed to making the trip to Hawaii struggle in the bowl game before (Middle Tenn LY, Cincy two years ago). I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to UH here.

Fresno State won on this field, 31-21, as 9.5-pt favorites just last month. That started a four-game ATS win streak to end the regular season. Overall, this Bulldogs team was tied (w/ Iowa State) for the best ATS record in the country at 10-2-1. I was pretty shocked to see Houston scored more than 28 pts only four times in the reg season. Fresno State has a top 10 defense nationally in scoring, allowing just 17.2 PPG. (They rank 9th). Three of the teams above them are in the College Football Playoffs, plus you have the likes of Wisconsin, Penn State and Washington. So this is a very good defense, the more motivated side and a team more accustomed to venue. 10* Fresno State

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): This would be a rare bowl rematch from the previous year as Toledo, now the favorite, takes on Appalachian State. The two schools met in LY's Camellia Bowl w/ App State prevailing 31-28 in what was a very even game. Four times the Mountaineers scored a TD, only to be answered by Toledo doing the same. It wasn't until a FG w/ just over five minutes remaining that they took the lead for good. This year saw Toledo finally capture that elusive MAC Championship (1st since '04) while App State had to settle for sharing first place in the Sun Belt (where there is no Champ Game). As I mentioned earlier, the Rockets are the favorite this year as the teams line up in the Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL.

Being the underdog has not suited Appalachian State well recently. They are 0-6 straight up in such games the L3 seasons. Twice they were getting points this season and both times they were a trend call to pull the upset. Both times, they (obviously) failed. One was the season opener against Georgia, the other at home vs. Wake Forest. Toledo might not be as good as either of those two side (obviously not as strong as Georgia), but they are an 11-win outfit that is superior to the vast majority of App State opponents this year. Interestingly, the Mountaineers avoided both of the other top teams in the SBC, those being Troy and Arkansas State. As I've mentioned in past analysis this bowl season, the SBC was really weak this year beyond the top three. Of note is that ASU scored only 10 and 19 pts the two games in which they were dogs. 

Toledo's offense is very strong, led by QB Logan Woodside, who was the only signal caller in the nation besides Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to throw for 25+ TD passes w/ fewer than eight interceptions (28-5 ratio). He finished the reg season w/ 3,758 yds passing as the Rockets averaged 11th nationally in scoring (39.2 PPG) and 8th in total (509.9 YPG) offense. They will be the best unit on the field Saturday night. While App State lost to the likes of UMass and LA Monroe (two bad teams), Toledo's only two losses were to Ohio U and Miami, both on the road. Turnovers were the story in both losses. Assuming the Rockets can protect the ball here (had zero TO's LY vs. App State), then they should win going away. 8* Toledo

10* South Florida (12:00 ET): I realize that there's a legit question of motivation on the side of USF, who can't be too thrilled about a return trip to the Birmingham Bowl given that they came into this season w/ thoughts of crashing the "New Year's Six" party. They only lost twice, one of those coming in what was quite possibly the "Game of the Year" in College Football, to unbeaten UCF. (Ironically, that 49-42 result enabled UCF to usurp USF's dreams and go on to play in the Peach Bowl vs. Auburn). Regardless though, on paper, the Bulls should have little difficulty w/ a pedestrian 6-6 Texas Tech squad that may just "be happy to be here" after upsetting Texas in the regular season finale. Lay the short number.

South Florida HC Charlie Strong knows this opponent well from his own time in Texas. His Longhorns teams went 2-1 SU/ATS vs. the Red Raiders, twice scoring 45 pts against them. The offense he brings in this time is far superior than any edition he had in Austin. Led by sensational QB Quinton Flowers, the Bulls averaged 38.3 points per game (15th nationally) and north of 500 YPG. Usually, Texas Tech has the offensive edge over its opponents, but that is NOT the case here. In fact, over their last three games, the Red Raiders averaged just 22.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Defensively, the Bulls have the edge as well. They allow just 22.5 PPG, as opposed to 31.7 for Texas Tech. Granted, you have to factor in that Texas Tech played the more challenging schedule, but still, the stats are slanted far enough in USF's direction that I'm willing to overlook that. 

This is just the third bowl in five seasons for TT under Kliff Kingsbury. Many in Lubbock felt Kingsbury was on the proverbial "hot seat" coming into 2017 as he was off a 5-7 SU season and projected to finish as low as 8th in the 10-team Big XII. As mentioned above, they needed to win their reg season finale (as 7.5-pt dogs at Texas) just to become bowl eligible. Getting back to the question of motivation for USF, I think the opportunity to knock off a Power 5 school is enough for them to "get up" for this game. They're the better team and laying a small number, I expect them to roll. Over the L3 seasons, in games where the line is three points or less, USF is 4-1 SU/ATS while TT is 1-5 both ways. 10* South Florida

8* UAB (12:30 ET): Off to the Bahamas we go Friday afternoon where we're likely to find a highly motivated underdog, one that NO ONE could have possibly predicted would be in a bowl game this year. UAB HC Bill Clark just might be the Coach of the Year in College Football as he led a team that didn't even play a single game last season (program was temporarily dropped after 2014) and guided them to a stunning 8-4 SU regular season. Meanwhile, I can't say that Ohio U will be very motivated for this trip. Not only did the Bobcats blow what was a golden opportunity to win the MAC East at the regular season, but they're currently dealing with numerous injuries. I have a ton of respect for the job Frank Solich has done in Athens, but he's only 2-8 straight up in bowl games here. Take the points.

Adding to UAB's motivation here is that they have NEVER won a bowl game in school history. The last and only time they were in one was '04 (Roddy White era!) and they lost the Hawaii Bowl 59-40 to ... Hawaii. Though again "off the mainland," this is a far better matchup for them. The Blazers' one weakness is stopping the run, so lucky for them that OU is likely to be w/o its top two leading rushers for this game, not to mention their leading receiver as well! As you might have guessed, UAB sprung numerous upsets during the reg season as they were 5-2 ATS as dogs, winning four of those games outright. Five of their games were decided by five points or less. All things considered, they did have some head-scratching losses, including one to Ball State (a MAC team). But they closed by winning four of five, the lone loss coming at Florida.

When Ohio beat Toledo 38-10 on November 8th (as 3-pt home underdogs), it appeared as if they were in the drivers' seat to win the MAC East. Unfortunately, they then tanked, losing games at Akron and Buffalo, missing the spread by over 30 pts in those two games. The combination of injuries and disappointment likely take their toll here. Also, don't sleep on the UAB defense, which allows just 24.3 PPG (47th in the country) and only 188 passing yards per game. The MAC traditionally struggles in bowl games and I wouldn't want to lay this many points given the likely disparity in motivation. 8* UAB

8* Louisiana Tech (8:00 ET): It was an "up and down" first day of Bowl games for C-USA's perspective w/ two wins and two losses on Saturday. League champ FAU's result (check Tuesday) is not in yet as of press time. Overall, C-USA sent NINE teams bowling this year, which has to come as a shock to those who don't really pay attention to the league during the regular season. Here, we have a La Tech team that won the West Division LY, but dipped down to 4-4 SU in league play and 6-6 SU overall this season. They had to win their final two regular season games, over UTEP and UTSA (two of C-USA's five NON-bowl teams), just to get here. But the Bulldogs' senior class is 3-0 SU in bowl games (favored every time), so it's easy to like them plus the points here. 

SMU became bowl eligible back in late October, but then sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their final four reg season games. The only win was the finale, against lowly Tulane, while they lost to AAC heavyweights UCF, Navy and Memphis. The big story here is that HC Chad Morris has bolted for the Arkansas job and will be replaced by Sonny Dykes. Running backs coach Jeff Traylor was to serve as the interim here, but decided to follow Morris to Fayatteville. So Dykes is jumping straight into the fire here in the Frisco Bowl. SMU does have an edge in location w/ this game taking place in Frisco and Dykes was previously the HC at La Tech (before leaving for Cal). But those two factors aside, this is a tough spot for Dykes, who has to coach a team he hasn't had much time to learn about (will have been on the job for only NINE days by gameday!).

While La Tech is 3-0 SU in bowls under HC Skip Holtz (Dykes' replacement!), SMU has not been to a bowl since 2012 (when they stunned Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl, 43-10, as 13-pt underdogs). SMU has the edge offensively in this matchup, but La Tech is clearly better defensively. SMU did win all seven games that they were favored in during the regular season, but was only 4-3 ATS. I just think that the whole coaching situation is going to be a major detriment for the Mustangs. As for La Tech, this game is not a far trip for them either and I think they'll be the more motivated side as they're ecstatic to just be in a bowl. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Akron (7:00 ET): This spread is the largest for any bowl in the past two decades and is simply begging for a call to take the points. That's what I'll do here, even though Akron is pretty clearly "up against it," playing a "true" road game in Boca Raton. The Zips were the surprise winners of the MAC East this year and finished 7-6 SU despite being outscored and outgained rather severely against FBS competition. But a late season upset over Ohio enabled them to win their division and then they "backdoored" Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, losing by only 17 as 20.5-pt pups. I see, at worst, a similar situation presenting itself here as the underdog should be highly motivated by the "disrespect card." 

FAU made my short list for most improved teams in the country this year as Lane Kiffin walked into a great situation as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Also, the Owls were bound to improve upon a 1-4 SU record in close games. However, close games were not the reason this team made an unforseeable quantum leap in 2017 as they simply rolled the rest of Conference USA, going 9-0 (including Title Game) while outscoring opponents by 200 points. However, I worry about overconfidence from the Owls coming into this game as they really aren't accustomed to being this level of favorite. It wasn't until the final three games of the regular season that they were even asked to lay double digits! This is their second largest spread of the season, topped only by a matchup w/ Charlotte, who is one of the worst teams in the country.

Kato Nelson, who took over late in the season for Thomas Woodson, will remain Akron's starting QB for this bowl game. Nelson played well enough down the stretch to justify the decision. But it's an opportunistic Akron defense that has me more intrigued as this group ranked 2nd in interceptions and #16 in turnover margin. They also are stingy in the red zone, ranking 25th in points allowed per trip. The Zips were 6-3 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and even w/ the homefield edge, I feel FAU should be closer to a two TD favorite rather than three. 10* Akron

8* Western Kentucky (2:30 ET): This was quite the disappointing season down in Bowling Green, KY as the Hilltoppers finished only 6-6 SU, a clear dropoff from LY's team, which finished 11-3 SU and won the C-USA Title. They came into 2017 as favorites to repeat in the East Division, but like everyone else, they fell victim to the resurgence of FAU under Lane Kiffin. WKU lost to FAU, 42-28 (as six-point home underdogs), back on 10.28. That loss begat a second half decline which saw the Hilltoppers lose four of their final five games. But a disappointing season can still be salvaged here w/ a favorable matchup against what may very well be the WORST of all the bowl teams, Georgia State, who was not only outscored over the course of the year (1 of only 7 bowl teams that can say that), but was outscored by almost a full touchdown per game. That's easily the worst scoring differential among all 74 bowl teams. Lay the points here in the Cure Bowl.

This is hardly bowl season's most prestigious game, but Georgia State is probably "happy to be here." That's because they'd produced only ONE season w/ more than three victories going back to 2011. Ironically, that one season (2015) saw them end up here, in the Cure Bowl (played in Orlando), where they lost 27-16 to San Jose State. Most signs were pointing up though in Shawn Elliott's first year here as they played better than LY's 3-9 SU record showed (actually outgained SBC foes!), but the irony is that this Panthers' team is probably NOT as good as its 6-5 SU record. After becoming bowl eligible w/ a 33-30 win at Texas State on 11.11, they promptly were blown out in their final two reg seasons contests, 31-10 by Appalachian State and 24-10 by Idaho (both at home). The GSU offense averages less than 20 PPG (19.7 to be exact) and did not beat a single bowl team in the regular season. They played three (bowl teams) and were outscored 121-20 in those games. The truth about the Sun Belt is that the competition is VERY weak below the top three teams. 

Western Kentucky's inferior record (compared to LY) can be pinned on a couple things. One, they lost HC Jeff Brohm, who cashed in at Purdue. Two, they lost TWO 1300+ yard receivers. But QB Mike Whitie is still more than capable of producing a big day in the passing game as he led all C-USA players w/ an average of 303.3 YPG. Also, despite losing those two quality receivers from last season, the Hilltoppers are arguably deeper at the position this year w/ 11 different wideouts having 24+ catches. This is WKU's fourth consecutive year playing in a bowl and they've won each of the last three. They know what they're doing this time of year. Compare that to a poor Georgia State team that has NEVER won a bowl. WKU is also 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS coming off a bye while Georgia State is 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS in that role. 8* Western Kentucky

10* North Texas (1:00 ET): The Mean Green of North Texas have been pulling upsets all season long, so what's one more? They'll play Troy, a team that defied regression in 2017, in this year's edition of the New Orleans Bowl (played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). This is the third year in a row this bowl game matches up teams from C-USA and the Sun Belt w/ the former winning each of the L2 years. That bodes well here for UNT, who pulled three outright upsets during the regular season en route to a Championship Game appearance (lost 41-17 to FAU). I'm impressed by the fact the Mean Green were able to go 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS despite a -8 turnover differential. Defensively, they have their issues, but they also average more points per game than Troy. Take the points in this year's 1st bowl game. 

I said earlier that Troy "defied regression." What I mean by that is LY's team finished 10-3 SU (beat Ohio in the Dollar General Bowl) and became the 1st Sun Belt team to EVER be ranked when they were 8-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to eventual National Champ Clemson. Only two years removed from a 4-win season, you would have thought the Trojans would fail to match LY's season-win total, but instead they've matched it and now have a chance to exceed it! By far, the highlight of the regular season was a stunning 24-21 upset of LSU (in Death Valley!) as 20.5-pt dogs. They clinched a share of the SBC reg season crown (no Conf Title Game) by beating Arkansas State in the finale, 32-25, in Jonesboro. That game was won in the final 17 seconds w/ a TD and subsequent 2-pt conversion. However, be aware that the Trojans were VERY lucky to win that day as they were outgained 606-293! If not for TWO non-offensive scores, they would not even have been in position to "steal" the game late.

Though 9-1 SU as a favorite, Troy has covered only four of those games. Similarly, North Texas won all six times it was favored in the reg season. But, as mentioned before, they were a pretty successful underdog as well. Troy allows only 17.5 PPG, but as we saw in the last game, they can give up plenty of yardage. The North Texas offense comes in averaging 467 yards and 35.9 points per contests. So, getting points, they are an attractive choice. Few even expected HC Seth Littrell to have his team in this position, but after inheriting a 1-11 team from two seasons ago, he's improved the win total in Denton B2B years. Remember the Mean Green actually played in a Bowl last season, despite being 5-7 SU (weren't enough eligible teams!). They covered in the Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. Army, losing only 38-31 as 11-pt pups. Now they look for their 1st bowl win since '13. Led by QB Mason Fine, this is the best offense that UNT has EVER fielded as seven different receivers recorded at least 24 catches. Fine set school records for passing yardage and touchdowns. The dog will score enough to cover here. 10* North Texas

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Wisconsin is unbeaten and in "pole position" (currently #4) to make the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State is the betting favorite here and for good reason. I've said this before - and it bears repeating - that the Buckeyes would likely be favored over every team in America (on a neutral field) besides Alabama. The Big 10 Championship Game is played at a neutral site (Indianapolis), so the line is no surprise to me whatsoever. Now the underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this game, but the situation here is a little unique in that it's the DOG attracting the far higher ticket count. Yet, despite that, we saw the line continue to rise early in the week. That's typically a tell-tale sign that "sharper" dollars are on the favorite and that's who I'm rolling w/ Sat night.

The big news out of Columbus this week is that QB JT Barrett will play Saturday, despite having had surgery (on his knee) Sunday. The knee was apparently injured by an unknown cameraman on the sidelines of the Michigan game. The Buckeyes still were able to beat their rival, mind you, despite being w/o Barrett for a significant portion of the game and spotting the Wolverines a 14-0 lead. I'll note that, by the numbers, Ohio State was - by far - the best team in the Big 10 in the regular season. They outgained conference foes by a whopping 254 YPG (nearly 2:1 margin), outscoring them by 26.4 PPG. All you need to know is that they were favored by double digits at Michigan while Wisconsin was just a touchdown favorite over the Wolverines - in Madison. 

It is absolutely okay to question Wisconsin's schedule. Their best win may or may not be Florida Atlantic. If not the Owls, then it would be Northwestern and that too was an early season affair. They caught Iowa the week after the Hawkeyes stunned the Buckeyes and that game was in Madison. So was Michigan, and they were down in the 2nd half before Wolverines' QB Brandon Peters was knocked out. Badgers fans will want to point to how "strong" their team is in trenches, but Ohio State is actually stronger across both the offensive and defensive lines. Undefeated teams in November/December the L4 seasons are just 42% ATS across College Football. Worse yet for Wisconsin is Urban Meyer's 30-17-1 ATS record vs. ranked opponents. This won't be the 59-0 massacre that the Buckeyes laid on the Badgers three years ago, but OSU will win comfortably. 10* Ohio State

8* Fresno State (7:45 ET): Of all the Conference Championship Games on Saturday, the matchup in the Mountain West just might be the oddest. Like most, it's a regular season rematch. But where this one differs is the intial matchup took place just last week and the teams had NOTHING to play for. Fresno State won 28-17 (as 6.5-pt dogs), but that was at home and it was pretty clear they were the ones taking the game far more seriously. Those expecting Boise to bounce back have to be delighted at the line for Saturday night's rematch on the "Smurf Turf," but there's also an inherent danger in simply expecting the Broncos to "turn it on" here. Note that FSU was just as dominant, if not moreso, in MWC play this year. I'll take the points. 

Really, the fact that Fresno State is even in this game is pretty remarkable. The Bulldogs were 1-11 SU in 2016 and while most metrics were "pointing up" for this year, you still must tip your cap to the job done here by HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?) in year one. Tedford did inherit 16 returning starters, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball, which is his speciality. However, it has been the defense that has really impressed. This group ranks 12th in the nation, allowing just 17.3 points per game. That is stunning turnaround in one year's time as LY, the Bulldogs allowed 30.9 PPG. They are especially stout against the run, allowing just 117.3 YPG. Last week, they held Boise State to just 3.5 yards per carry and 107 yds total over land. 

Fresno State outscored its Mt West foes by an average of 14.5 PPG this year and outgained them by over 100 yards per game. Boise State's MOV in conference play was identical, but they outgained Mt West opponents "only" by 84.9 YPG. The fact that Fresno State allowed only 13.1 PPG in league play is impressive, no matter how you slice it, and leads me to believe it's going to be a low-scoring affair Sat night. Only once - in an upset loss to UNLV - have the Bulldogs surrendered more than 21 pts to a MWC opponent this year. That makes taking the points seem like a "slam dunk" to me. FSU has defied the oddsmakers all year long (9-2-1 ATS) in taking a division that most thought should simply be handed to San Diego State at the start of the year. And so much for homefield advantage; Boise State is just 4-13 ATS its L17 home games. Take the points. 8* Fresno State

8* Auburn (4:00 ET): Like many games on Conference Championship Weekend, it's a regular season rematch in the SEC w/ Auburn taking on Georgia. Much has changed since that first meeting down in Jordan-Hare, namely the Tigers are now the team in the driver's seat. It all started w/ them destroying UGA last month, 40-17 as a 2.5-pt home dog. Now they're a 2.5-point fave on a neutral field. That's justified though given how one-sided the regular season matchup was. Georgia isn't the only #1 team that Auburn has beaten over the last month as last week (also at home) they downed rival Alabama, 26-14 (+4.5) in the "Iron Bowl." Those anticipating any kind of letdown here should note that the Iron Bowl winner has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in SEC Title Games (5-2 ATS) since 2009. Auburn is too hot right now; lay it. 

Since losing to Auburn (only loss this year), UGA has rolled two opponents by a combined score of 80-20, but that was Kentucky and Georgia Tech. The 'Dawgs did beat one Top 10 team during the regular season, Notre Dame, but that was by just a point and doesn't look so impressive now w/ the Fighting Irish having since been blown out by Miami and Stanford. Remember that this team has a true frosh at QB as well. Even having played Auburn once, I'm not convinced the coaching staff can make the necessary adjustments along the offensive line given the discrepancy in personnel they face going against this Auburn defensive line. Georgia avoided two of the big boys in the SEC West (Alabama, LSU) and faced only three ranked teams all year. That matters. 

With their dominant defensive line likely to hold the Georgia offense in check, I'm not as worried about the potential absence of Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson (who went for 167 yds in the reg season matchup). Johnson is listed as probable anyway though and the Tigers have depth at the position. QB Jarrett Stidham continues to improve by the week and led the SEC w/ a 68.5 completion percentage. Three weeks ago, I said that this Auburn team could very well make a playoff run and right now there is no doubt that they are one of the four best teams in America. Looking at their two losses, one was close (early in the year) at Clemson (current #1) and the other saw them blow a 20-0 lead (at LSU). It won't be as lopsided as the first go-around, but the Tigers will win here and move on to the CFP. 8* Auburn

8* Oklahoma (12:30 ET): Like many of the Conference Championship Games this weekend, this is a regular season rematch where the underdog is playing w/ revenge. In the case of TCU-Oklahoma, I played the Sooners in Norman back on November 11th when they were about a TD favorite. Now they are laying the same, only at a neutral setting. This might cause reasonable minds to believe the value is on the Horned Frogs here, but considering the ease w/ which OU disposed of them three weeks ago, I say "not so fast." It was a 533-424 edge in total yardage for the Sooners in the 38-20 win and take note they didn't even score in the second half. This offense is simply going to be too good again for TCU to keep up. Lay the points. 

Oklahoma is #1 in the country, averaging 594 yards per game. They are #4 in scoring at 45.3 points per game. I took the Over in their game last week, which won easily (cashed early 3rd quarter!), yet even I was amazed by how efficient the Sooners were there. Understand that they possessed the ball for less than 25 minutes of actual game time, yet ran up 646 total yards and 59 points! Once again, with the game out of hand, they didn't even bother scoring in the fourth quarter. They scored on each of their first NINE drives of the game, eight of those being touchdowns, and it could have been 9 for 9 if they didn't run out of time at the end of the first half (had to settle for a field goal). As good as TCU HC Gary Patterson is at coaching defense, I wouldn't want to be stepping in front of this OU offense right now. 

TCU's only regular season loss besides OU was to Iowa State, who also beat the Sooners. Don't get me wrong; I have a tremendous amt of respect for the Horned Frogs. I even had them as my top CFB win total this season (at Over 7.5), which cashed easily. The Over on their game last week was my top CFB play of the weekend as they put up 45 points on a downtrodden Baylor team. But, again, Oklahoma is just on a different level right now. They put up 62 points and over 700 total yards against Oklahoma State last month and that was in Stillwater. When facing an opponent that has a winning record, the Sooners are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons. They are also 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The TCU defense will also be w/o safety Nick Orr here - due to suspension - for the first half. By the time he returns, it could be too late for the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma ran for 200 yds in the first meeting, the most allowed in any game by the TCU defense all season. 8* Oklahoma

analysis soon

8* Alabama (3:30 ET): This year's installment of the Iron Bowl is as anticipated as any Alabama-Auburn matchup in recent memory. Certainly, Auburn fans will recall the 2013 game when they upset a top-ranked Bama team here at Jordan-Hare (as 10-pt underdogs) on the now infamous "kick-six." This year, the Crimson Tide again enter the regular season finale unbeaten and ranked #1 in the country (3rd time in last 5 seasons!) and control their destiny for the CFP. But so does #5 Auburn, who would also be in the CFB if they win the next two weeks. The lookahead line for this game was as high as Bama -10 before Auburn's thumping of Georgia two weeks ago. That and a number of injuries for the Tide have conspired to drop it pretty dramatically, to the point where I now feel the value is all on Alabama. Lay the points. 

Both teams got to enjoy "tune-ups" last week. Alabama shutout FCS foe Mercer 56-0 while Auburn beat La Monroe (one of the worst FCS teams) 42-14. It was what happened the prior Saturday, however, that has people believing in the dog here. Auburn absolutely crushed then #1 Georgia 40-17 (as 2.5-pt underdogs) while Alabama survived its lone real scare of the season, winning 31-24 at Mississippi State (Tide were over +100 in total yds). But let's not forget that Auburn also has blown a 20-point lead and lost at LSU and was dominated by Clemson early in the season. They have lost five of the last six Iron Bowls with Alabama's victories coming an average of 24 PPG. Last year, it was 30-12 in Tuscaloosa w/ Bama as a 17-pt favorite. 

The Crimson Tide do have some very real injuries to be concerned about as they are down FOUR linebackers, which could mean trouble facing sensational Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson. But Nick Saban recruits so damn well that this is the only program in America that can successfully endure such attrition. Offensively, Bama is far more balance and dynamic than Georgia, which I believe will be the key to this game. Remember that UGA had a true frosh starting QB on the road. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing yards (270.3 per game), yards per carry (6.03) and rushing touchdowns (35) and QB Jalen Hurts is a tremendous dual threat. Auburn has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well and, to me, so many people are thinking upset here that I feel it's best to go on the other side w/ the most proven commodity in the sport. All but two Bama wins this year have been by double digits and one that wasn't was a game they allowed a TD in the final minute. 8* Alabama

8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): One of these years, Jim Harbaugh is actually going to beat Ohio State. It just won't be this year. I'm still bullish on Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, but this clearly wasn't going to be his year as he brought back the least experienced team in the country and has had to cycle through three quarterbacks due to a combination of injury and ineptitude. There were some metrics that suggested a better season could take place for Michigan, but the bottom line is that they always seem to suffer one upset (Michigan State this year) and never win as an underdog. Last week's somewhat sad showing in Madison (lost 24-10 to Wisconsin) dropped Harbaugh to 0-5 SU as a 'dog at his alma mater and he's covered the spread in just one of those games. Ohio State would be favored over every team in the country not named Alabama and is the play here.

The Buckeyes come in ranked #9 in the latest CFP Rankings, but still have a shot at making the playoff if everything breaks right for them. A number of teams ahead of them are going to lose in the next two weeks, so if they win here and next week's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin, there could be an argument for them to be in the top four. While I view them as a top four team on paper, it will be hard for me to buy an argument considering they were blown out twice - by Oklahoma (at home) and Iowa (ouch!). But looking at the raw numbers, you'll find a team that has outscored its Big 10 foes by an amazing 227 points (Wisconsin #2 at +133) and outgained them by an average of 280 yards per game. They've scored 48 or more points SEVEN times in 2017. For the sake of comparison, Michigan has yet to top 36 points in any game this season.

The Wolverines enter this game likely having to start John O'Korn at QB, which is too bad because redshirt freshman Brandon Peters was playing well before being knocked out of last week's game. Tests did come back negative for Peters, so he could conceivably play here, but how effective would he be? Original starter Wilton Speight was knocked out of the Purdue game back in September and hasn't played since. Michigan has a great defense (#9 in efficiency), but Ohio State isn't far behind (#14) and the gap on the other side of the ball is so great that it really doesn't matter. Of course, the Buckeyes have won 12 of the past 13 meetings, including all five under Urban Meyer. In fact, the lone loss to Michigan in those L13 seasons came in the year w/ interim Luke Fickell at the helm. Look for OSU to roll. 8* Ohio State

8* South Florida (3:30 ET): Coming into the year, we all thought this regular season finale would be USF's shot at clinching a spot in the AAC Championship Game and sure enough, that's the case. However, no one could have envisioned that they'd be a double-digit DOG to UCF, who is unbeaten and vying to be the "Group of Five" representative in a "New Year's Six Bowl." (In all likelihood, whomever wins the AAC will be that rep). Memphis (also ranked) is waiting in the wings to play the winner of this game next week. Tip your cap to the job done at Central Florida by Scott Frost, who likely lands himself a higher paying job (Nebraska?) for next season. However, let's not discredit what Charlie Strong has done up the road in Tampa. USF actually had the "bullseye" on them at the start of the year as they were favored to run the table and be in the position UCF is currently in. The Bulls did lose once, to Houston (by four), but that's it. Underdogs for the 1st time in 2017, I'll take them plus the points in this de fact AAC East Championship Game. 

South Florida's lone loss saw them outgain Houston 462-397 and that yardage edge was even greater before they gave up a 9-play, 49-yard drive in the final two minutes to lose 28-24 (were 10.5-pt favorites). Save for that game, it's pretty much been "smooth sailing" for the Bulls. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double digits. Yet, just to illustrate how much the market has "feared" them, they actually come into this game on a 4-game ATS losing streak. Last week saw them  "slip by" Tulsa 27-20, though they actually spent a good deal of the game up double digits. Keep an eye on QB Quinton Flowers, who is every bit the equal of his UCF counterpart McKenzie Milton (#2 in FBS pass efficiency), if not superior. Flowers is 2nd in the nation in QBR (trailing only Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield) and is the 7th player in FBS history to have a career w/ 7,000+ yds passing and 3,000+ yds rushing. 

UCF has outscored its seven AAC opponents by 165 points while USF is at +122. That's a somewhat negligible difference. Even w/ the unbeaten record and playing in Orlando, I just don't see why the Golden Knights are favored by this many points. It is USF that actually has a slight edge on defense as they rank #1 in the conference in both points (19.9) and yards (323.5) per game allowed while UCF is #2 in both categories (20.5, 373.6). UCF has hardly had the most challenging schedule and got a clear break earlier in the year, hosting Memphis in a rescheduled date (Hurricane Irma). Here, it is USF w/ a pretty clear scheduling advantage. They get two extra days to prepare as they last played Thursday while UCF was at Temple Saturday. The Bulls are 6-2 SU in the eight all-time meetings, including a 48-31 win and cover (as 10-pt chalk) LY. 8* South Florida

10* Mississippi (7:30 ET): Mississippi State survived last week in what was a horrendous spot for them, one week removed from a near upset of #1 Alabama and they had this, their rivalry game, on deck (on a short week no less). Dan Mullen's team came from 14-0 down to beat Arkansas, on the road, 28-21 (though they failed to cover as 2 TD favorites). As for rival Ole Miss, they were not as fortunate last weekend, losing to Texas A&M 31-24 in the Oxford finale (shutout in the 2nd half!). Neither team has anything to play for here (Ole Miss bowl ineligible), but you can throw the records out in a rivalry game (the rare cliche that holds true!), thus taking the points is usually a good idea. That's what I'll do here as it's a really big number. 

Tensions are going to be very high Thanksgiving night in Starkville. Needless to say, this game will not be reminiscent of the Pilgrims and Native Americans sitting down for dinner. This rivalry has taken on a really nasty tone w/ it being a Miss State beat writer that was responsible for former, disgraced Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze's firing when he uncovered Freeze was calling an escort service. So don't think the Rebels won't be trying here. Furthermore, there is the embarrassment left over from last season when the Bulldogs came to Oxford and beat them 55-20 as 10-point underdogs. That did result in the Rebels not making a bowl. Though an injury to QB Shea Patterson in essence "wrecked" their season, I repeat, the underdog is going to be motivated here. It's a rivalry game and a nasty one at that.

Miss State is going to go a decent bowl game and could win 9+ games for a third time in four seasons. But that's pretty much their fate right there. Yes, they'll be motivated to beat their rival as well. But, the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is the hang up for me. Yes, it's true that when the Bulldogs win, they have typically won big. But it's quite the swing to see them go from 10-pt dogs to more than a two score favorite in one year's time against the same opponent. They'd lost the previous two years and came in ranked both times. Too many things can happen here that would prevent MSU from covering. At the very worst, I expect the backdoor to be open late in the game. 10* Mississippi

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is (very) bad, but after having their dreams of bowl eligibilty dashed last week, I have to figure Miami is pretty crushed emotionally. Therefore, I want zero part of laying this kind of big number (on the road, no less) w/ the RedHawks in what is basically a meaningless regular season finale for them. Ball State at least has the motivation of wanting to send it's seniors out w/ a win in the final home game of the season. The Cardinals also have revenge from a one-point loss in Oxford in LY's reg season finale. Miami scored the GW TD w/ just 5:44 to go and Ball State had a chance to answer, but a 90-yard kickoff return was called back due to holding and they lost 21-20 as a touchdown underdog. The situation is MUCH different this year w/ the RedHawks not having anything to play for (were trying to become bowl eligible LY). Thus, I'll grab the big number. 

This entire season has been one giant disappointment for Miami. They came into 2017 being touted as co-favorites (along w/ Ohio) to win the MAC East after winning their final six regular season games a year ago. They were the first team EVER in NCAA history to open 0-6 and close 6-6 (lost bowl to Miss St). But the magic just wasn't there this year. They've suffered four losses by five points or less, the most crushing of which came last week at home to Eastern Michigan, 27-24. The RedHawks defense allowed 454 total yards in the loss. Despite leading at halftime (17-13), the team really had no shot at winning as they trailed by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. They've now covered just one of their previous seven games to fall to 2-9 ATS on the year, tied for the worst mark in the country at the betting window. 

Now let's get some of the ugly stuff out of the way. Ball State has lost its last eight games (0-7 vs. the MAC), all of them by at least 16 points. The closest they've finished to any conference opponent came LW, hosting Buffalo, as they "only" lost 40-24 and actually covered the spread, thereby snapping a six-game ATS losing skid. But if the players have any pride at all, they'll "show up" in this final game in Muncie. I should point out that Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year, losing both games outright. 10* Ball State

10* USC (8:00 ET): They say to "throw away" the records in a rivalry game, but in this game, the respective records actually understate the advantage one team has over the other. USC comes in a 9-2 SU, having not had a bye week all season. While they were blown out by Notre Dame last month, their only other loss came on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game in which they lost THREE different offensive lineman to injury. The Trojans had been a disappointment at the betting window much of the year, but not lately as they come into the final riding a 3-game ATS win streak. (I had them LW vs. Colorado). UCLA is 5-5 SU, needing a win for bowl eligibility, but despite having QB Josh Rosen, they're simply overmatched in this spot. The Bruins' previous efforts on the road have been nothing short of disastrous and Saturday night will be no different. 

You are almost certainly aware of the QB battle in this game as USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen came into this season as perhaps the two most highly touted pro prospects at their position. Rosen's resume has taken a slight hit due to injury and his team's ineptitude, but like Darnold, better days lay ahead. (An interesting sidenote: the respective fathers were once a doctor (Rosen) and janitor (Darnold) at the same hospital). Darnold has certainly had the better year statistically and has the better supporting cast to lean on. Especially when he hands the ball off to RB Ronald Jones II (552 yards L3 games), who should "slice and dice" a UCLA rush defense which ranks DEAD LAST in the country (302.3 YPG allowed!).

Both offenses are averaging slightly more than 35 PPG, but the key here lies on the defensive end where USC is allowing roughly 12 PPG fewer and that the game takes place at the Coliseum. I already talked about how Darnold and Jones should have their way w/ this UCLA defense, but let's come back to that. The Bruins have been nothing short of abhorrent in road games this year, going 0-5 SU, allowing 49 points and 533 yards per game. Yes, Rosen has missed time. But that's still no excuse for these hideous performances. Last week, they were very lucky to "only" give up 37 points at home to Arizona State, who had jumped out to a 14-0 lead before settling for too many field goals in the second half. USC has not lost a home game this season, outscoring their visitors by 13.6 points per over the six games. The Trojans have beaten the Bruins by 19 and 22 points each of the L2 years (had lost 5 in a row previous to that) and mark my words - this team is going to win the Pac 12. 10* USC

8* Oklahoma (3:30 ET): I fashion myself as a bit of a 'contrarian,' which many times leads me to take "unpopular" sides, most of them being underdogs. But here, my view is most are going to call for #4 Oklahoma to be in letdown mode following its impressive 38-20 win over TCU last week. Trust me, if anyone knows just how well the OU played Saturday night, it's me as I chose to lay the points with them and came away even more impressed w/ Lincoln Riley's outfit. All the Sooners have to do now is win out, which would include the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. I understand why many would consider this a letdown spot and it's a lot of points to lay. But sometimes you just have to look at the two teams and realize one is vastly superior than the other in every conceivable way. Thus, I'll lay the big number. 

How can a team possibly be asked to lay this many points on the conference road? Well, let's start w/ the opponent. Kansas, as I'm sure you know, is atrocious. Really, that's putting things pretty kindly as the Jayhawks have lost nine in a row since beating FCS school SE Missouri State in the season opener. This is not their first time getting 30 or more points in Big 12 play. Earlier in the year, they were +37 at TCU and lost 43-0. Last week, they were +31.5 at Texas and did manage to cover, losing only 42-27 in a game where the total yardage discrepancy was actually not sizable (371-364). But note that Kansas did score a meaningless late TD w/ only 11 seconds remaining, which capped an 80-yard drive. Prior to that, they had only 264 total yards of offense. They also trailed 28-7 after the first quarter. In conference play, the Jayhawks are already being outscored by an even 31.0 PPG. Now they play the best that the Big XII has to offer. 

Oklahoma has actually covered four of the previous six times it has been favored by 31 or more points. One of those came LY, hosting Kansas as 40-pt chalk, and they won 56-3. A year later and I'm not sure why anyone would expect anything different. The Sooners' defense hasn't always been great this season, but the offense can probably name its point total. QB Baker Mayfield is going to win the Heisman (book it!) and could use this game for some additional "highlight material." Consider that the Kansas offense has been shut out twice in Big 12 play (by Iowa State and TCU) and held to only nine points by Baylor (yikes). 8* Oklahoma

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): Northwestern actually finds itself among the Top 25 in the latest installment of the CFP rankings, but to me, it's a "token gesture" by the committee for the Wildcats winning five straight games. Upon closer inspection, that ranking simply does not hold up as the win streak includes three overtime wins. One of them, against Michigan State, is the most "quality of the bunch but then again we saw just how overrated Sparty was last week (told you!). Against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Wildcats were outscored 64-31. Then there was that early season 41-17 loss to Duke, which keeps getting uglier w/ each passing week. I'm not saying that Minnesota is the best opponent N'western will have faced over the month, but they're going to be a very motivated team Saturday in Evanston simply based on the fact they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Take the points here. 

Minnesota hosts Wisconsin next week, so if they want to get bowl eligible, this week is probably their best chance to do it. I was impressed by the way the Gophers came out last week and destroyed Nebraska 54-21, rolling up 500+ total yds of offense in the process. It was their most points scored in any Big 10 game since 2006, so perhaps PJ Fleck's offense is starting "to take." After a 3-0 SU start, the Big 10 portion of the schedule has not really gone as well as HC Fleck would have hoped in his 1st season here (2-5 SU), but making a bowl is still a milestone worth achieving. The Gophers have basically had the opposite luck of N'western when it comes to close games this year, at least in conference play, as three of their five losses have come by a TD or less. Believe it or not, but for the year, Minnesota has a better scoring differential compared to Northwestern!

Despite being 5-2 SU in Big 10 play, N'western is only outscoring foes by two points per game while outgaining them by just three yards per game! Certainly, Pat Fitzgerald's team will remember what happened in this game last year as they were stomped 29-12 up in Minneapolis. However, this is simply NOT a team I'd want to choose as a favorite. Consider that it's been more than three seasons since they've been favored by 7.5 to 10 pts in Big 10 play and they lost that game outright (to Illinois) w/ bowl eligibility on the line (reg season finale in '14). Minnesota has a strong pass defense (183.9 YPG allowed), which is 3rd best in the Big 10, and that should be enough to at least keep them in this one until the very end. 8* Minnesota

10* UNLV (9:30 ET): Last Friday, UNLV hosted BYU in a game that was pretty important for their bowl eligibility. They opened as a favorite, but by kickoff had moved to a slight dog. Turns out that the smart money (and I) were right as the Rebels lost 31-21 to the Cougars even w/ a slight edge in total yardage (447-425). The game really hinged on UNLV being -2 in turnover differential. That result now leaves them in a scenario where they must win their final two reg season games to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. Up first in New Mexico, who just one year removed from a 9-4 SU season (including bowl win!) appears to have given up on HC Bob Davie and his antiquated coaching tactics. The Lobos, who have no shot at bowl eligibility, have dropped five straight to fall to 3-7 SU on the year. With more to play for, I'm backing UNLV in this spot.

UNLV never led last week. Despite that, they were never really out of the game, which swung on a Johnny Stanton INT in the end zone in the first half. At the time, the game was still scoreless. BYU would go onto score touchdowns on each of its next three drives to take control. Now I really haven't necessarily changed my evaluation of the Rebels from last week. Rather, this play has everything to do w/ the opposition. Also, as noted in last week's analysis, UNLV had won B2B games prior to the BYU loss. It's been a long, hard climb for Tony Sanchez's team, whose season started w/ a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. I think that they really want this bowl berth and will be the more motivated of the two sides Friday night. 

Meanwhile, motivation may be approaching its nadir here in the Davie era (6th year in Albuquerque). Reports began to surface early on this season that Davie had lost the locker room over alleged player mistreatment. We've yet to confirm that validity of those claims, but it sure seems as if things went south in a hurry. Four times in the five-game losing streak, the Lobos have lost by double digits. Granted, no one expected them to win at Texas A&M last week, but a 55-19 loss to a team w/ its own coaching issues was pretty bad. The Lobos were outgained 562-144. This defense has not been good much of the year and the running game which carried the offense a year ago has declined from 1st to 34th in yards per attempt. Turnovers have also been a major issue w/ 15 fumbles lost (2nd most in FBS) and a -15 margin overall. UNLV is 4-2 as an underdog this year while New Mexico is 0-4 ATS when favored, so keep an eye on that line (play stands regardless!). 10* UNLV

10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): I think it would be fair to say that these teams represent the two biggest disappointments in the MAC this season. Miami actually finished tied atop the MAC East last year (w/ Ohio) and did so despite starting that season 0-6 SU (won final 6 reg season games!). Eastern Michigan ended a nearly 30-year bowl drought by going 7-6 SU itself. But in 2017, things have not according to plan either Oxford or Ypsilanti. Eastern Michigan is already eliminated from bowl contention and that can be pinned on the fact they've been quite unsuccessful in "close games." Despite having a positive scoring differential in conference play, their record is only 1-5! Six of their losses this year have come by a touchdown or less. Miami, on the other hand, still has a shot at bowl eligibility (must win final 2 games) and that's a big reason I'm on them here. 

All the signs were there for an Eastern Michigan decline this season as LY's team won five games by a TD or less and pulled four outright upsets. They really "snuck up" on the oddsmakers as well by going 10-3 ATS. Remember that this program is just two years removed from going 1-11 SU! Chris Creighton (4th year here) has them pointed in the right direction and the Eagles probably will be improved NEXT season. But 2018 seems like a long ways away for a team that had much bigger aspirations this year. I wonder about their psyche as for the first time this season, they were beaten by double digits in a MAC game, this coming last week against Central Michigan. QB Brogan Roback threw FIVE interceptions in the 42-30 loss up in Mt. Pleasant. The loss also sealed the fact that the Eagles won't be returning to the postseason this year.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Miami got its starter back LW vs. Akron and you saw the difference that made in a 24-14 win and cover over Akron. Gus Ragland was expected to lead this team to better things in 2017 and while the MAC East is no longer attainable, a bowl bid still is. Ragland has one of the top receivers, not just in the MAC but the entire country, to throw to in James Gardner (886 yds, 10 TDs). Despite a -2 TO margin, the RedHawks had no problem winning going away LW (led 24-7 entering the 4Q) w/ a 420-278 edge in total yards. Defensively, the RedHawks are pretty good at stopping the pass (have not allowed a single 300 yd game YTD) and they also registered six sacks last week vs. Akron. Miami will be heavily favored next week to beat hideous Ball State in their finale, so a win here all but assures they go 6-6 SU and become bowl eligible. They're 5-1 ATS their last six games where the line is a field goal or less (either way) and I'll be laying the short number here. 10* Miami OH

8* Kent State (7:00 ET): I probably don't need to tell you that Kent is not a very good football team. Of course, injuries have definitely taken a toll on the Golden Flashes, which is why they come into tonight sporting only a 2-8 SU record. However, for this game, I do believe there is some value in taking them. Central Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth last week by pulling its second consecutive minor upset, this one over Eastern Michigan (42-30). So there's a natural letdown that follows for a Chippewas team that has won three straight and four of its last five overall. This being Kent State's home finale, I don't think they'll be lacking in motivation and the number is generous, about four points too many according to my own power rankings. Take the points. 

Kent's biggest issue all season has been at the quarterback position where an injury to Nick Holley has really rendered the offense pretty impotent. Out of 130 FBS teams, the Golden Flashes rank 129th in both yards and scoring. QB George Bollas has a very ugly 0-5 TD-INT ratio the L2 games, though Kent did scored 20 points in its last game, it's most against any FBS opponent all season. It should be noted that game (at Western Michigan) would have been a lot closer than the 48-20 final were it not for THREE defensive scores against the Golden Flashes. It is imperative here that Bollas take care of the football as CMU has 16 interceptions on the year, five of them coming last week! However, as I've stated so many times in the past, turnovers are such a volatile statistic. One week or season, they can totally be in your favor, while the next you're on the wrong end. I'll call for things to go MUCH better in that department this week for Kent.

Central Michigan may have a "ball-hawking" type defense, but it also gives up plenty of points. They've allowed 23 points in all but one game this season (to Ball State). To go back to my earlier point, the nine TO's they've forced the L2 games have been huge for them. I realize that the Chips still have an outside shot at winning the MAC West, but prevailing here by any kind of margin is not likely to the focus. They were virtually dead even in total yardage last week vs. Eastern Michigan, a game which was decided by those aforementioned five interceptions. CMU is only +5.3 points and +5.6 yards per game in conference play, so this is by no means a dominant team. Kent did beat them LY (as 14-pt road dogs!), 27-24, on a last second field goal. The revenge factor here will be overrated as I look for the Golden Flashes to "show some pride" in the final home game for their seniors. 8* Kent State

8* Oklahoma (8:00 ET): This has now become THE game in the Big 12 this year as the winner is likely assured of being no worse than #5 in the next CFP rankings, plus will have the conference lead all to themselves. Ironically, both Oklahoma and TCU have lost to Iowa State this year. Oklahoma lost to the Cyclones as 30-pt (!) home favorites, 38-31, back on October 7th. TCU lost to them at home, 14-7, just two weeks ago. That's the ONLY loss for both teams all season. Both have beaten Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas. OU gets the higher ranking likely due to their win at Ohio State early in the year and I don't really think there's many people right now (outside of Ft. Worth) claiming the Horned Frogs are the better team here. Throw in the fact the game takes place in Norman and I'll lay what is actually a pretty short number Saturday night.

While they did lose to Iowa State, Oklahoma is still 57-8 SU its last 65 games at Memorial Stadium. So anytime you get the opportunity to lay a TD or less w/ them here, it's probably a good idea to do so. Sure enough, there has been only one time in the previous three seasons that they've been faves of 7 pts or less here in Norman and they won easily, 44-24 over West Virginia, back in 2015. While it's true these teams have a history of playing close games (L5 all decided by 7 pts or less), my thinking is that works AGAINST TCU here. Typically, the favorite is the one undervalued in Top 25 matchups and that's what we have here. 

OU averages 45 points and 608 yards per game. They will - easily - be the top opponent TCU has taken on this season. Meanwhile, the Sooners have already gone to Ohio State and won. Last week at Oklahoma State, Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the offense put on an unreal display w/ 62 points and 785 yards. I just don't know how you stop this offense. TCU does rank 1st nationally against the run, but it's the passing game where OU truly excels. With just 31 pts - total - scored in its last two games, I'm just not sure how the Horned Frogs can keep up. OU has a huge edge at QB in this matchup w/ Mayfield over Kenny Hill and that's going to be a big part of the difference here. Yes, TCU was able to win at Oklahoma State earlier in the year, but as we saw last week, it's the Sooners that are the stronger Bedlam rival and I just can't pick against them at home. 8* Oklahoma

8* USC (4:00 ET): Most would be quick to call Southern Cal's season a disappointment as the Men of Troy came in to 2017 w/ playoff aspirations. But even with the two losses, this still a team to be feared. Navigating a schedule that had ZERO bye weeks was practically insurmountable, so I'm not surprised at all to see the multiple blemishes on the resume. Plus, let's look at the two losses, shall we? One was on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game where the Trojans lost multiple OL to injury. The other was at Notre Dame, who is the third best team in the country according to the committee. The last two weeks have given us a glimpse into USC's vast potential. They've routed both Arizona State and Arizona to the tune of 97-52. I don't think they'll have much problem at all w/ Colorado, even in Boulder. 

Now Colorado has been a true disappointment this year. Last year at this time, the Buffs were on their way to being the surprise winner of the Pac 12 South and playing in the Conference Championship Game. No one expected a repeat of that, but a 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS record is definitely not what the faithful envisioned either. They actually enter this game in last place in the North Division (USC in first). While it was a 3-0 start, that included wins over Texas State and Northern Colorado. Pac 12 play has not gone well as they're just 2-5 SU and the wins were over Oregon State (by only three) and Cal, the two worst teams in the league. Last week, they were beaten 41-30 by Arizona State after giving up 24 pts in the fourth quarter and nearly 600 total yards for the game. USC had just routed that same ASU team two weeks ago and it's pretty frightening to think what Sam Darnold and the Trojan offense might do to this Buffaloes defense.

USC is also only 3-7 ATS and was actually 1-7 before covering each of the last two weeks. Their market favoribility took a major hit after the Notre Dame game, but that's fine by me as I fully expect them to win out and play Washington in the Pac 12 Title Game. Not only has it been 97 points from Darnold and company the L2 games, it's been B2B 600+ yard efforts as well. Given Colorado just allowed Arizona State to run for 381 yards last week, I'd say this is a bad matchup facing an offense that has 672 yds over land its last two games, 410 alone from Ronald Jones. The Colorado defense has given up an average of 35 PPG the L5 weeks and this will be the best offense they've faced during that time. CU has NEVER beaten USC in 11 all-time tries, not even LY when they won the Division. In fact, the fact they "only" lost 21-17 was quite misleading as the Trojans outgained them 548-371 and kneeled inside the CU five-yard line to run the clock out. I look for USC to make it three blowouts in a row. 8* USC

10* Ohio State (12:00 ET): Judging by the ticket count (as of Thursday afternoon), it certainly appears as if no one wants any part of the 13th ranked Buckeyes this week, even though they're at home and HC Urban Meyer is typically outstanding when coming off a loss. The public disdain does make sense; after all, OSU was routed in Iowa last Saturday - 55-24 - yet is still laying a big number here. But at the risk of offending any readers/clients from East Lansing or those who simply may "bleed" Sparty green, Michigan State is a highly overrated outfit and very fortunate to have the record it does. Their five Big 10 victories have come by a TOTAL of 25 points and none were by more than eight! Not only is this line justified; it's actually not high enough!

Expectations were way down in East Lansing coming into the season. The Spartans were coming off a 3-9 SU year and a lot of talent elected to bolt in the Spring. Nothing that happened in the non-conference portion of the schedule seemed to indicate this team was ready for big things. There were two "ho-hum" wins over MAC schools (Bowling Green, Western Michigan), followed by a 38-18 thumping at the hands of Notre Dame. But here in Big 10 play, all they've done is win close games, save for one. Notable wins include one over Michigan where Sparty was +5 in turnover margin, thereby enabling them to win a bad weather game where they barely gained 250 total yards. The win at Minnesota, admittedly, shouldn't have been as close as it ended up considering MSU led big before getting backdoored. But the following week saw a highly misleading final in their favor, 17-9 over Indiana, where they scored two late fourth quarter TD's to not just steal the win, but the cover as well. Mark Dantonio got a dose of his "own medicine" the following week in a 3 OT loss to N'western (only Big 10 loss). Then came last week where they upset Penn State in East Lansing, yet another game that was heavily impacted by mother nature (three-hour lightning delay). Man, this team sure seems to win a lot of bad weather games. 

Two years ago, here in Columbus, the Spartans won another bad weather game. This one as 14-pt dogs, 17-14. This Saturday is expected to be chilly (high of 40 degrees), but no rain is expected. I know that NO ONE wants to hear this right now, but in my mind, Ohio State would still be a favorite over any team in the country, save for Alabama. The Buckeyes average 43 PPG. Michigan State averages only 24 PPG. I'm calling for a three TD victory for the home team here as they're stock couldn't be any lower. I just do NOT believe in Michigan State at all as I don't even believe they are a Top 25 team in the country! 10* Ohio State

8* BYU (10:30 ET): It has, quite obviously, been a terrible season in Provo, both on the field and at the betting window. Brigham Young failed to cover in any of its first seven games this season and the lone SU win during that stretch came against an FCS school, Portland State, in the opener. Once they dropped a game, 33-17 at hideous East Carolina, the Cougars' season was, in essence, done. But I've liked the way they've still competed for HC Kalani Sitake the L2 weeks, covering both games, despite nothing to play for. They even won a game, two weeks ago, 41-20 over San Jose State. Then, last week saw them stay inside the number at a much improved Fresno State team, losing "only" 20-13 as 11.5-pt dogs. This week, they're in Vegas on a Friday night against a UNLV team that hasn't been very trustworthy when laying points. I'll grab the number here w/ the short road dog. 

UNLV came into this season thinking bowl game, which would be a first under HC Tony Sanchez, a local favorite due to his ties to the high school scene. This is Sanchez's third season here and in the previous two, the Rebels have won three and four games. Going back to 2010, only UNLV team ('13) has won more than four games in a season. Four is where they're at now, meaning they'll need to win two of the final three to become bowl eligible. Rebels' fans are probably thinking this can be one of those two, but as alluded to earlier, this team is untrustworthy when favored. They're only 5-8 ATS in the role under Sanchez, including 1-2-1 ATS this year (2-2 SU). They did push LW vs. Hawaii, but also lost outright to Utah State (52-28!) the last time they were a short fave here in Sam Boyd Stadium. 

BYU was tied w/ Fresno State last week (on the road) entering the fourth quarter and still finished w/ the edge in total yardage and first downs. The week previous, they rolled up nearly 600 yds total offense and forced five turnovers in a 41-20 win and cover (1st of season) over San Jose State. Now, QB Tanner Mangum is done for the year (ACL), but this is the SIXTH time in the last eight seasons that BYU has lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and they've persevered before. The unknown factor at QB here will make them more difficult to prepare for anyway. Speaking of QB's, UNLV's Johnny Stanton was playing linebacker just three weeks ago. He too is only in there because of injuries. The Rebels have not beaten BYU since '04 and remember this is a team that lost outright to FCS Howard (as 45-pt chalk) in the season opener. 8* BYU

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): These are the two best teams in the MAC and a rematch is likely in the Conference Championship Game next month in Detroit. Toledo is the ONLY team in the conference w/o a loss (5-0) while Ohio (entering Tuesday) is tied w/ Akron for the lead in the East Division at 4-1 SU. Something will have to give here as Toledo is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the road favorite role while Ohio has covered 10 of its last 13 in the underdog role. Furthermore, the Bobcats are 7-2 at the betting window this year. However, this will be - BY FAR - the toughest test to date for Frank Solich's team as Toledo's only loss all year was to still unbeaten Miami. And that's Miami FL, not Miami OH. The line has come down pretty significantly since the open and, to me, that has created a situation where there's value on the Rockets. Lay the short number. 

Toledo also has revenge here for a 31-26 loss last year (as 16-point favorites!) in the Glass Bowl. That game saw both teams roll up 500+ yards of offense, but the Rockets never led. It was their first loss to the Bobcats since '88, but keep in mind these teams do not play every season. Something history buffs may find interesting is these two teams have combined for NINE MAC Title Game appearances, but have won it only twice (both times by Toledo) and not since '04. If they were to meet in Detroit next month, it would be the first time we got Ohio vs. Toledo there. The Rockets haven't even been to the MAC Title Game since '04, which is astounding when you think about it as they have 16 1st or 2nd place finishes in the West since the conference split in '96. Ohio won the East last year. 

This year should be "Toledo's year." Western Michigan is nowhere close to as good as it was last year and Northern Illinois is still rebuilding. Plus, Toledo already beat N Illinois and won't play WMU until the reg season finale when they already might have the division wrapped up. This team has covered its last four games and is outscoring MAC opponents by 20.6 PPG while outgaining them by almost 200 YPG! Ohio has scored 45 pts three consecutive weeks, but did so against lesser competition. They did lose outright - here at home - to Central Michigan as 10-pt chalk earlier in the year. Last week, despite being Miami 45-28 (and I had the Bobcats), total yardage was basically even. All but one of Toledo's conference wins have come by double digits and while this one may not follow the pattern, it doesn't have to. 8* Toledo

8* Miami OH (7:30 ET): There certainly seems to be some sharp money on the RedHawks here as they've gone from laying four points at the open to almost a touchdown at all shops (as of press time). It's certainly been a disappointing season in Oxford as there was a ton of optimism following last year's finish to the regular season where the team ended on a six-game win streak. That disappointment is reflected in a 2-7 ATS record this season, which includes a 1-5 mark when favored. Yet that hasn't stopped oddsmakers (or bettors for that matter!) here as Miami's opponent this week is a major surprise being on top of the MAC East (tied w/ Ohio). I'm going to lean on what happened to Akron in Toledo two weeks ago and lay the points Tuesday.

Though 4-1 in MAC play, Akron has outscored its conference opponents by only 14 total pts. They have two one-point victories, one of those coming in their last game, which was 21-20 over Buffalo at home. The Zips were actually outgained pretty handily in that win, 459-372, and finished w/ nine fewer first downs. They won on a late TD pass (4:46 remaining), which capped a 91-yard drive. It was a similar story in a one-point win at Western Michigan where the Zips were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin yet came away ahead 14-13 in a game that had to be pushed back a day due to inclement weather. I'm just not sure how much longer "lady luck" can continue to ride on this team's shoulder. Again, I point to the fact they were blown out by Toledo, two weeks ago on the road, 48-21 w/ the defense allowing over 600 total yds. Despite the 4-1 conference record, Akron is actually being outgained by 120 YPG by its MAC opponents! They average just 17.2 PPG on the road. 

Miami lost last Tuesday to rival Ohio, 45-28, though it was basically even in total yardage (Miami actually finished ahead, 448-443). The loss dropped the RedHawks to 2-3 SU in league play, but they are actually outgaining MAC foes by about 50 YPG, essentially making them the opposite of Akron this year. While all three wins this year have been by double digits, four of Miami's six losses have come by eight points or fewer. This game strikes me as time for a "reversal of respective fortunes" and Miami really needs this game if they are to become bowl eligible. They should also be extra motivated by a four-year losing streak to the Zips (lost 35-13 LY), their longest losing skid in the history of the rivalry! I'm not too concerned by the fact Miami may again have to go w/ backup QB Billy Bahl as they have one of the top WR in the country in James Gardner (20.1 yards per reception) and are going against the conference's worst passing defense. The RedHawks also rank 15th nationally in time of possession, so expect them to play "keep away" tonight en route to a win and cover. 8* Miami OH

10* Stanford (3:30 ET): Despite already having two losses on its resume, Stanford still has plenty to play for, both individually and collectively. From an individual perspective, RB Bryce Love figures to be getting an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation next month. Whether or not he wins it depends on him getting healthy and how well he plays moving forward. As far as the team is concerned, they find themselves in the role of spoiler w/ home games left against both Washington (next Friday) and Notre Dame (regular season finale). Both of those teams will be looking to make the CFP. Of course, the Pac 12 Championship is still on the table for the Cardinal, who got a major scare last week in Corvallis, only beating Oregon State by a score of 15-14 (were w/o Love). There's been some question as to whether Love is going to play here, but I'm banking that he will and thus Stanford is an excellent play plus the points.

Washington State is another team that probably feels it can still win the Pac 12 Championship. They too have Washington left on the schedule, though this year's Apple Cup will be waged in Seattle. (Wazzu will be off a bye). But before we can even begin to discuss the regular season finale, we need to talk about the way the Cougars have been trending. It's been two losses in the last three games for Wazzu, one being an ugly one (37-3 at Cal), then LW's debacle at Arizona (58-37). I concede to you that both of those losses ocurred on the road. But I still never took this team seriously as a legit threat to win the conference and in fact, they hardly ever cracked my Top 25, even when they were still unbeaten. Last week saw QB Luke Falk pulled, yet Mike Leake still called 84 pass plays! 

This is a big revenge game for Stanford, which lost 42-16 (at home!) LY to Wazzu. I'm sure the coaching staff and players have not forgotten. Love's health is certainly a big deal, and something I'll be monitoring throughout the week. But the bottom line here is that you have to love a player averaging more than 10 yards per carry going up against a defense that just surrendered over 300 yards rushing last week. Weather should also be a factor Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Though Stanford is a California team, they certainly are not the kind of wide-open attack that comes to mind when we think Pac 12 offenses. If the reports are true and the weather is freezing and rainy, that's an edge for the Cardinal as Wazzu's passing attack will undoubtedly be negatively affected (and they can't run the ball). Stanford is actually averaging more points per game than Wazzu this year, which is shocking, and they're the better team getting points. 10* Stanford

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): Are the Fighting Irish ... (gasp!) underrated? It sure seems so. Well, not by the pollsters, who placed them #3 in the initial CFP rankings. But bettors have certainly been able to cash in on this team w/ great frequency as they roll into Saturday on a six-game ATS win streak. The last two weeks have seen them destroy both USC and NC State, teams that I consider to be among the top 25 in the country. Both those games took place here in South Bend w/ the Irish winning by a combined 84-28 margin. Up next is a Wake Forest team you may hear labeled as being "dangerous," but the bottom line is that the Demon Deacons are not as good as either of ND's last two opponents and coming off an upset (of Louisville), I think they'll be the ones primed for a letdown in this spot. Lay the points. 

Notre Dame has the "honor" of being called the "best 1-loss team in America." Since losing to #1 Georgia by a single point here at home, back in Week 2, no other team has come within 20 points of them. I absolutely love the way this offense runs the ball as we've now seen four consecutive games w/ at least 318 yards over land, thanks in large part to an experienced line. That's very bad news for a Wake Forest defense which can be had. Two weeks ago, they allowed 427 rushing yards to Georgia Tech and for the season they are giving up 184 rush yards per game. Last week against Louisville, the Wake offense gave up well over 500 total yards and still won, something they will assuredly NOT be able to do here. 

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has just as big an advantage. It starts w/ their DC, Mike Elko, having previously served as the Wake Forest DC the previous three seasons. So Elko knows the Demon Deacons' offense. Even better is that he won't have to worry about defending their top WR, Greg Dortch, who is now out for the year due to an abdominal injury. Dortch had 10 catches for 167 yds last week vs. L'ville w/ four touchdowns, so he'll clearly be missed. So too will starting RB Cade Carney. I also forgot to mention Wake will be w/o a starting safety, Jessie Bates, for this game. I think people are just looking at the spot for Notre Dame, who is off B2B beatdowns of Top 25 opponents w/ Miami on deck, and thinking letdown. But it's Wake Forest that's off an upset here and they're down several key players, including their best one on offense. I just can't see them keeping pace with the ND offense, on the road. 8* Notre Dame

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): I think it's fair to ask what Indiana has left in the tank. The last three weeks have to have taken a toll as we've seen them come up brutally short in losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Then, last week they lost outright at Maryland, giving up 42 points in the process. They did outgain the Terps, 483-345, and have nearly twice as many first downs. They even jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. But none of that mattered as QB Peyton Ramsey got hurt and Maryland got a big play early in the 2Q where they returned a blocked punt for a TD. Normally, this is situation where I'd at least consider the home dog that seems "due," but I have major concerns over the Hoosiers' state of mind right now as even becoming bowl eligible will be a chore.

Wisconsin comes to Bloomington probably feeling a bit disrespected. I hate when teams play that card. But in the case of the Badgers, they are one of three Power 5 teams to be unbeaten, yet they are also ranked only 9th in the initial CFP rankings. (Interestingly, Miami is #10, but Alabama is #2). Winning out would certainly have to land the Badgers in the top four though, right? Yes, we can poke fun at their schedule thus far. But if they beat both Michigan and Ohio State, they'll be in. As for this game, they come in off a lackluster 24-10 win at Illinois where the edge in total yards was very slight. That said, they were up 24-3 for most of the fourth quarter before conceding a touchdown in the final minute. It was the third straight game that the Badgers' defense allowed 13 pts or less.

The IU QB situation being what it is, I see them struggling to score points Saturday afternoon whether it's Ramsey or Richard Laglow starting. Wisconsin is allowing only 12.9 points per game for the season and Northwestern is the only team to top 17 against them. The Badgers and Hoosiers haven't played since 2013, which is probably just fine from the IU perspective as they've dropped nine in a row to the team from Madison and done so by an average of 37 PPG! I realize that Badgers' bellcow Jonathan Taylor is currently listed as questionable for this game, but with or without him, I see the offense being able to move the ball against a suspect Indiana defense which has three times permitted 42 points or more. 8* Wisconsin

10* Temple (8:00 ET): The AAC is having another strong year w/ UCF threatening to be this year's "Group of Five" team in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. But both Navy and Temple, particularly the latter, are teams that have taken respective steps back in spite of the conference's overall ascension. These two met in LY's AAC Championship Game w/ the Owls winning big, 34-10 as 2-pt dogs in Annapolis. With the HC of that team, Matt Rhule, having departed for Baylor though, there was no way the Owls were going to repeat last year's 10-4 SU (and 12-2 ATS!) records. Sure enough, they come into this week at 3-5 SU and ATS. As for Navy, they started 5-0 SU, but have since dropped B2B games. I like the way Temple matches up here (familiar w/ triple option!) and will take them as a home dog. 

Now it's essentially a entirely different coaching staff, not to mention front seven, for Temple here compared to LY's Conference Championship Game. But still, they catch a break in having additional time to prepare for this matchup, not that they needed it though as they faced Army in their last game! The Owls did allow 248 rush yards in that 31-28 loss, but that was on 50 carries. So they defended the triple option relatively well. I should also mention how three of Temple's four losses this year have been by seven points or less. Like Navy, they're far better suited as underdogs. They covered as seven-point dogs against Army, a game which went to overtime and the Owls probably should have won in regulation. Not only did they outgain the Black Knights 506-389, but they had a seven-point lead w/ 90 seconds left in regulation, only to allow the typically anemic Army passing attack to carve them up! It was a similar story two weeks ago vs. UConn where Temple held almost a 2:1 edge in total yards (28-15 in first downs), but lost by four. 

Navy's two losses this year came against the teams most likely to represent the AAC in this year's Conference Champ Game, Memphis and UCF. The loss to UCF saw QB Zach Abbey leave in the third quarter due to a concussion and the Midshipmen's 17-game home regular season win streak come to an end. Of course, they were also handled LY here in Annapolis by this Owls' defense, getting held to a season-low in total yardage. Abbey's health is certainly something to monitor here, though the coaching staff has said he will play. Still, you have to wonder about performance after being knocked out. Both of these teams have been outstanding ATS in recent years, but I gravitate towards the fact Temple is 12-3 ATS the L15 times it has gotten points. 10* Temple

10* Western Michigan (7:05 ET): First off, the reason for the line dropping here is that WMU QB Jon Wassink is out w/ a broken collarbone. He sustained the injury in the Broncos' 20-17 OT win at rival Eastern Michigan 11 days ago and is done for the regular season. As deflating as that can be for a team, I still favor WMU by a far more significant margin than the oddsmakers are, against this latest "directional" opponent. A reason for Central Michigan getting some additional respect here in this spot is that they are coming off a 56-9 win. But I wouldn't read too much into that as the opponet was Ball State, who is not just one of the worst MAC teams, but also among the very worst teams in the entire country. I plan on taking advantage of this deflated line. You should too! 

It certainly didn't take long this season for Western Michigan to exceed their number of losses from LY, but that was to be expected after a "dream" 13-1 campaign landed former HC PJ Fleck the job at Minnesota. There was simply no way this year's team was going to match what the 2016 group did. But after opening w/ losses against USC and Michigan State (no shame there), the Broncos have played well, winning five of their last six. Their one loss came against Akron in a rescheduled affair that had to be played a day later (on a Sunday) due to flooding. I'd say that game certainly qualifies as "extraordinary circumstances." Yes, WMU has won two overtime games so far, one of them a record-setting 7 OT affair w/ Buffalo (71-68). But they're still outscoring MAC foes by two touchdowns per game while outgaining them by 78 YPG. 

Now, the Wassink injury does change things a bit. 1st year HC Tim Lester will be turning the reigns over to a freshman, Reece Goddard, who has thrown all of three passes in his college career. But having the additional time to prepare Goddard for his 1st start is huge, at least in my estimation. Central Michigan's defense is by no means great as they'd given up at least 27 points in six of their first seven contests. I expect Western Michigan to still move the ball here, thanks to RB Jarvoin Franklin, who has become his school's all-time leading rusher following three consecutive 100+ yard games. Also, it's worth noting that Goddard did led the GW drive to beat Eastern Michigan. Even though that was on a short field, he'd previously led an 11-play, 61-yard drive near the end of regulation that resulted in a missed FG. Central Michigan has lost three straight times to WMU and is only 3-7 ATS when off a MAC win. 10* Western Michigan

8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Miami-Ohio is actually one of the MAC's top rivalries. Known as "The Battle of the Bricks," Ohio has won 10 of the previous 11 matchups and LY's 17-7 victory in Oxford was the tiebreaker that allowed Frank Solich's Bobcats advancing to the Conference Championship Game. (Both teams went 6-2 SU in conference play). Coming into this year's meeting, Ohio finds itself w/ the top overall record among MAC East teams (6-2), but they're one-half game back of Akron for the division lead. Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country as they're only 3-5 SU after ending LY on a six-game win streak (excluding bowl). The RedHawks have been favored in almost all of their games (w/ Notre Dame being the only exception), but here they look to be "up against it" especially if QB Gus Ragland is again unable to play. Lay the points. 

Ohio lost an early season TV game, at Purdue, 44-21. They were actually just a short dog in that game, despite being the road team against a Big 10 opponent. Three consecutive victories followed, but then the Bobcats were upset at Central Michigan, losing 26-20 as 10-pt chalk. But now, they can again make it three straight wins following a loss as the L2 games have brought B2B 48-point efforts, including an annihilation of Kent State two Saturdays ago, 48-3. The OU defense allowed only 166 total yards in that game. The Bobcats have covered the spread in all six wins this season and gone 5-1 SU/ATS as favorites. Over the L3 seasons, they've won 17 of the 22 games in which they've been favored.

The last two years have seen the Miami offense manage a total of only 10 points against this Ohio defense. If they again have to go w/out Ragland, I don't like the underdogs chances here. But even w/ their starting QB, there's no guarantee of improved play. The team is only 2-4 SU/ATS w/ Ragland as the starter this year and that includes an awful home loss to Bowling Green, who hasn't beaten anybody else this year. I get that it's desperation time for the RedHawks, who must win three of their final four games just to be bowl eligible. But they're up against the best team in their division here, possibly w/o their starting QB, and Ohio is outscoring opponents by more than four touchdowns per game here in Athens. I'm not buying any kind of defensive resurgence for Miami here, even though they've allowed just 31 pts total the L2 games. They were fortunate to be +2 in turnover differential in the 24-14 win over Buffalo 10 days ago. It's not as if the RedHawks' schedule has been all that challenging to this point, so the fact that they're 3-6 SU is pretty ominous, especially since Ohio is the best team they will have faced since the Notre Dame game. 8* Ohio

8* Washington (3:30 ET): This is most definitely a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for UCLA as #12 Washington is not only coming off its bye, but also an embarrassing loss (to Arizona State) the week prior. Coming into the season, I pegged the Bruins as one of the most likely improved teams in the entire country, but it's become pretty clear to me that HC Jim Mora already has "one foot out the door" in Westwood as does QB Josh Rosen, who would be the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft if he elected to come out. As for Washington, they can no longer endure any more "slip ups" after the disaster that happened at Arizona State two weeks ago. The Huskies lost that game, 13-7, not even coming close to scoring enough points to cover the 17.5-pt spread. This is an offense averaging 37.9 PPG for the year and they are set to go up against a UCLA defense which is allowing nearly 500 yards per game! Lay the points. 

UCLA hasn't been good on the road either and quite frankly that's putting things mildly. They're 0-3 SU and ATS away from the Rose Bowl and in those losses to Memphis, Stanford and Arizona, they've given up an average of 51 points per game. Getting back to the defensive woes, that unit has now surrendered 44 or more points four times. Remember that they are one miracle comeback (against Texas A&M) away from being 2-5 SU right now. The Bruins are off a win here, but it came against an Oregon team w/ a backup QB that just can't do much offensively right now. It's not like the Bruins' road woes are anything new either; dating back to last season, they've dropped seven consecutive road games, the last five all coming by double digits. Their last Pac 12 road win came in 2015. 

Washington only managing seven points against Arizona State was a real head-scratcher that I can't begin to figure out. All I can say is that Tempe is a place no Huskies team has won since 1999, so it must be something in the air there. For the reasons laid out above, I do not see them having much trouble moving the ball or putting it in the end zone here. On the defensive side of the ball, HC Chris Peterson has some injuries to deal with, but the Huskies are allowing an average of only 10.6 PPG this year and still only gave up 13 in the loss to Arizona State despite losing CB Jordan Miller in the game. Yes, Rosen will be the best QB they face all year, but I think this stop unit will be up to the task, especially with them likely "playing from ahead" for the duration of the contest. UCLA has won just one of its last nine games as an underdog and is 1-7 ATS when coming off a Pac 12 win the L3 seasons. 8* Washington

10* Ohio State (3:30 ET): While this is technically a "revenge game" for the Buckeyes, who lost 24-21 (as 19-point favorites!) in State College last year, one could make the argument that it is the Nittany Lions that come into this year's meeting w/ more of a legitimate gripe as they were the one left out of LY's playoff while Ohio State made it (despite the H2H result) only to get promptly smashed by eventual Nat'l Champ Clemson. So, to me, the revenge factor may be overstated here. However, situationally, is where I find Ohio State to have a the big edge in this Big 10 showdown. They were off last week while Penn State was busy winning a primetime showdown w/ Michigan. That win over Michigan came a lot easier than most (myself included) expected, which I feel has caused a bit of an overreaction by the marketplace. Yes, Penn State is the unbeaten team here, but I still actually have OSU rated higher in my own personal power rankings. I was hoping to get the Buckeyes laying less than a touchdown at the Horseshoe on Saturday and the oddsmakers have granted my wish!

Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is an incredible 20-1 SU in his coaching career off a bye w/ five of those victories coming against ranked foes. Keep in mind that it was Penn State off a bye last week against Michigan, so the bye week (especially this time of year) definitely can play a huge role. And yes, Meyer is also 24-10-1 ATS in his career in revenge spots including 10-0 straight up his L10 w/ the average margin of victory coming by an impressive 13 points per game. Let us not forget either that OSU led Penn State last year 12-0, but lost on a blocked FG return for touchdown. The Nittany Lions weren't even ranked at the time! The win has jumpstarted an incredible run where they've lost only one time (Rose Bowl vs. USC) and they're an utterly insane 16-1 ATS their last 17 games. That lone non-cover was the Iowa game earlier this year where they needed a last second TD, but even then they had a 579-273 edge in total yards. But isn't a 16-1 ATS run getting close to a "tipping point" where we'll start to see James Franklin's team start to give some back? I think so.

Earlier I mentioned that I still have OSU rated higher in my own power rankings, so I'm not surprised by the line here - at all - and as I alluded to, it should probably be north of a touchdown. Most will disagree w/ me, which is where the (rare) value on the Buckeyes comes into play. Since getting beaten by Oklahoma in the second game of the season, OSU has rolled to five consecutive wins by an average of 42 points per game. QB JT Barrett has certainly gotten back on track w/ a 21-1 TD-INT ratio. He has guided the Buckeyes' offense to four straight games of 54+ points and 500+ total yards. OSU also has a defense to match Penn State's and of course the homefield advantage to boot. 10* Ohio State

8* North Carolina (12:00 ET): Let's just go-ahead and restart "The U is back!" narrative as the 'Canes have emerged as a "darkhorse" playoff contender simply by virtue of still being unbeaten in late October. But as you know, not all unbeatens are created equal and in this case, Miami is simply not at the level of an Alabama or Penn State, or even several one-loss teams (such as Ohio State or Clemson) for that matter. But tip your cap to the job Mark Richt is doing down in Coral Gables as there's a decent chance his Hurricanes will finish the regular season unbeaten thanks to avoiding Clemson, Louisville and NC State entirely, while drawing both Va Tech and Notre Dame at home. This week's game likely will NOT threaten their unblemished won-loss record, but it is a tricky spot as it comes right before those B2B home dates w/ Va Tech and Notre Dame. Can we say look ahead?

While Miami is exceeding expectations in year two under Richt, North Carolina has clearly fallen off a cliff for Larry Fedora in 2017. After winning 11 and 8 games respectively the last two seasons, the Tar Heels returned very little of the offense that drove last year's team (most notable loss was QB Mitchell Trubisky) and the result has been a rather ugly 1-7 SU and ATS start w/ the lone win and cover coming at Old Dominion's expense. The nadir of the season may have been last week as they ran into a rested Va Tech team in Blacksburg and got beat 59-7. But that creates some real value on the Tar Heels, who are back home, this week. Injuries are another reason UNC has struggled this year. But w/ little left to play for, I assume they'll treat this Homecoming affair like a bowl game and not roll over for their unbeaten visitor. 

Miami's unbeaten record is not w/o some very close calls, in fact, their previous three wins have been by a total of 13 points! Last week, they outlasted Syracuse 27-19 (were -18) down in Hard Rock Stadium where they obviously benefited from four Orange turnovers. The week prior was a 25-24 win over Georgia Tech on a last second FG, a game they trailed almost the whole way. Preceding that was another last second win, against Florida State. Following so many close calls and with two much bigger games on deck, it will be easy for "The U" to overlook this game and that could be mean trouble given that the visiting team is on a 5-12 SU run in the rivalry. Last year though, UNC won on the road, 20-13 as a six-point dog. The year before that, right here in Chapel Hill, the Hurricanes lost 59-21. I look for UNC to stay within a generous number. 8* North Carolina

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): Following disappointing B2B losses to USC and San Diego State, Stanford was just 1-2 SU on the season and in danger of becoming irrelevant. But this remains a Top 20 team in the country, at least in my opinion, and we've started to see what they are capable of w/ a four-game win streak here in Pac 12 play. Two Saturdays ago, the Cardinal took full advantage of Oregon being depleted and won in a 49-7 rout. Now they'll face the Ducks' "Civil War" rival, who is still winless against FBS competition this year and already made a coaching change. That would be Oregon State, the perennial dreg of the conference who has lost seven straight times to Stanford. I'm usually not one to lay a lot of points on the conference road, but I'll make an exception here. 

Over the course of its four-game win streak, Stanford has outscored its opponents (all of whom are stronger than Oregon State) by an average of nearly 20 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by what they did against Oregon, but note the only game during the win streak that was close was the one at Utah, who was rested when the Cardinal were not. Considering Oregon State is already allowing over 200 YPG on the ground this season (and given up 18 rushing TDs) and Stanford has the nation's leading rusher (Bryce Love), this looks to be a mismatch of epic proportions. Now I'm well aware Love is listed as a game-time decision here, but the notion of him and his 10.3 YPC average going against this Beavers' defense is too enticing too pass up. He already has NINE runs of 50+ yards this season and got to rest in the 2H vs. Oregon due to the lopsided nature of the contest. QB Keller Chryst also had his best game since the opener, completing 15 of 21 pass attempts, three of them for touchdowns. 

Love or not, another reason to like Stanford here is their defense facing an OSU offense that averages almost 50 fewer YPG rushing than Love does by his lonesome! Oregon State did play inspired in its last game, a 36-33 loss to Colorado (as 9.5-pt underdogs) here in Corvallis. But that came right after the surprising resignation of HC Gary Andersen. While interim HC Corey Hall has now had more than a full week to implement his own gameplan, he simply doesn't have a whole lot to work with here. The loss to Colorado marked the first time since beating FCS Portland State that the Beavers finished within 28 points of the opposition. They opened the year 0-5 ATS and are being outscored by 22.5 PPG. Whether it's Love's questionable status or something else, we're getting about nearly a full TD of value with this line on the Cardinal, at least according to my own power rankings. 8* Stanford

8* Colorado (10:45 ET): It's "Pac 12 after dark" and neither of these teams come in playing as well as they'd hoped. Washington State is of course off a horrific 37-3 loss at Cal last Friday, a game which saw them turn the ball over SEVEN times and get dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten. Fact is, I was never really that high on Mike Leach's team anyway. Now the same could be said for Colorado coming into this year as I always viewed LY's run to the Conference Championship Game as a bit fraudulent. The Buffs were able to take advantage of a "down year" in the Pac 12 South and just about everyone had them regressing in 2017. Sure enough, seven games into the season and they've already equaled the number of regular season losses (3) from last year. They've even been a big disappointment at the betting window, covering just one time since a season-opening 17-3 win over in-state rival Colorado State. 

Disappointing as the season has been so far in Boulder, I see some pretty significant value here w/ the Buffs. As discussed in the analysis last week for plays against Michigan and Auburn, there always seems to be some value in targeting Top 25 teams off a SU loss as the majority of bettors are all too eager to call for the proverbial "bounce back." But in the case of Wazzu, I see not much reason to expect any kind of significant bounce back this week. While they did open the season 6-0 SU, that included close wins here in Pullman over Boise State (trailed by 21 in the fourth quarter and won in 3 OT's!) and USC (who was down three starting offensive lineman). The rest of the schedule has been quite soft to say the least and they got to play Oregon when the Ducks were really banged up. Last year in Boulder, the Cougars fell 38-24 to the Buffaloes as five-point underdogs. I know Colorado isn't as good this year, but I'm not sure I can get on board w/ the pretty massive swing we've seen w/ the line in less than 12 months time.

CU's last three games, two of them losses, have all been decided by four points or less. Yes, they did give up 33 points to an inspired Oregon State team (playing for interim HC) last week, but the defense still ranks fifth in the Pac 12 both against the pass and the run. Cal was able to hold Wazzu to just 365 total yards last week w/ an inferior defense. The only team to blow out Colorado thus far was Washington State's Apple Cup rival Washington, who is a much better team. It also should be noted that the Buffs have been favored in all but two of their games thus far, which partly explains some of the ATS struggles to this point. While they didn't cover at home against Washington, they did cover on the road vs. UCLA. Before last year, the visitor had taken four of the five previous meetings in this conference rivalry. CU is on a 9-4 ATS run as the road team while Wazzu is just 1-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts. 8* Colorado

8* Baylor (8:00 ET): For most of the Big 12's existence, Baylor has been a bottom-feeder, not unlike Kansas. From the birth of the conference until 2007, they were an awful 11-85 SU vs. league opponents. But then came Art Briles and Robert Griffin III and from 2010-15, the program experienced virtually unprecedented success including FOUR 10+ win seasons. But that regime ended last year in utter disgrace due to a variety of severe misdeeds by players and coaches alike. Thus, Matt Rhule (came over from Temple) was stepping into a rather unfortunate situation, even though LY's team clearly underachieved. It's been even tougher than expected so far for Rhule as his Bears have yet to win a game and enter this week at 0-6 SU w/ just two covers to their credit. Only one time in conference play have they been able to stay within single digits of their opponent, ironically against Oklahoma.

But I believe the Bears have some fight left in them and will give #23 West Virginia all it can handle Saturday night in Waco. The Bears' three home losses have come by a total of 18 points. Yes, one of them was to Liberty, a FCS program. They also lost to UTSA, a game where they failed to score enough to even cover how much they were favored by (lost 17-10, were -11). But, as mentioned above, they did play Oklahome tough here, losing only 49-41 as 28-pt underdogs. I was impressed there by the fact they rallied back to take a second half lead after initially trailing 14-0 early in the game. Baylor is now a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog going back to 2011 and Rhule is 23-9 ATS all-time in his coaching career when priced as a dog w/ 11 outright victories. Watch the number as he's 11-3 ATS as a double-digit dog. 

Helping Baylor here is the fact that I absolutely hate this spot for WVU, laying points on the road. They are off a wild, come from behind win last week over Texas Tech in Morgantown. They fell behind by as many as 18 early in the second half before storming back to score the game's final 29 points! They were outgained by the Red Raiders, 513-396. Oklahoma State is on deck next week in a huge home game and the players may be looking ahead to that game. That same Oklahoma State team just whipped Baylor last week, 59-16, but I'm willing to foresake that result as the game was in Stillwater and the Pokes were off a bye (admittedly Baylor was too). Somewhat shockingly, the WVU offense only ran for 44 yards last week on a Texas Tech defense that no one will confuse w/ Alabama. Last year in Morgantown, with nothing to play for, Baylor easily covered the 17-spread, losing only 24-21 in a game they initially led 14-3. Since WVU joined the Big 12, the home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in their meetings w/ Baylor. 8* Baylor

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Georgia Tech enters the week as one of only a handful of teams that has covered the spread in all of its games this season. They're 5-0 ATS to be exact, but in a pretty awful spot this week and thus I see them failing to cover for the first time. Last Saturday saw them suffer a tough 25-24 loss down in Miami, a game that was played two days later than was originally planned due to Hurricane Irma shuffling around "The U's" schedule. It was the Yellow Jackets' second one-point loss of the season, the other coming to Tennessee (doesn't that look bad now?) in the season opener. Now they must turn around and host rested Wake Forest, a team whose defense will certainly keep this one close. Take the points and do so quickly as the line continues to drop. 

Last week was certainly an advantageous spot for the Yellow Jackets, as they were coming off a bye while Miami was coming off an emotional last second win over rival Florida State. While they blew a 24-13 second half lead, note the Jackets were outgained pretty severely by the 'Canes, (481-281), so the final result was probably deserved. Now it is they (Ga Tech) who must deal with a rested opponent. The bye week is huge for the underdog Demon Deacons here as it allows for extra preparation for the Yellow Jackets' triple-option. Plus, bye or not, they probably already had the necessary defensive personnel to stop the Ga Tech offensive attack. The Deacons rank 16th nationally in rush defense EPA and while they haven't faced the Yellow Jackets since 2010 (really!), they have gone up against similar offenses in Tulane and Army the past several seasons and done well at stopping them.

Wake may be 1-2 SU in ACC play, but that's due to the fact they had to play Florida State and Clemson the L2 games. They played the Seminoles very tough in Winston-Salem, even outgaining them 367-270, and had a chance to send the game into overtime on the final play (lost 26-19). Against Clemson, it was back door cover (trailed 28-0), but I though the Deacons played the defending Nat'l Champs closer than the score suggested in Death Valley. Again, Dave Clawson's team has a Top 20 defense nationally in terms of efficency. As a road dog, Clawson has gone a pretty outstanding 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons including an outright win at B.C. (34-10!) back in Week 2. This truly is a wretched spot for Ga Tech, who is not only off its second one-point loss of the year, but also has a date at Clemson next week. Wake Forest will be ready to go and an outright upset is a strong possibility Saturday night in Atlanta. 8* Wake Forest

8* Mississippi (7:15 ET): LSU was a nice winner for me last Saturday, but let's not lose sight of the fact that they trailed Auburn 20-0 (at home) before storming back to take the game outright (as 7.5-pt dogs) 26-23. Or the fact they lost at home to Troy. Last week was the first cover for the Bayou Bengals (who wouldn't be denied w/ former HC Les Miles in the house) since the opener against BYU (who still hasn't covered a game this year!). In two "true" road games, they've won by one (17-16 over Florida) and gotten trounced by Mississippi State. I faded them in Starkville (Miss St) and am not about to endorse them as similar road chalk based off one come from behind victory. Take the points here. 

Like LSU, it was a rare cover for Ole Miss last week as they routed Vanderbilt 57-35 in Oxford. Depending on your result from the previous Saturday (against Auburn), it was either the first or second cover of the season for the Rebels. Regardless, it snapped a three-game losing streak (all on the road). There is no denying the talent on hand here, but the issue was going to be motivation after an ugly divorce from Hugh Freeze right before the season. The word "prostitutes" is never something school officials want to see next to their name! All jokes aside, last week may have seen the Rebels turn a corner. That was (supposedly) a very good Vandy defense that they shredded to the tune of 600 total yards and 57 points last week, led by QB Shea Patterson. The Rebels now actually lead the SEC in passing offense 357.2 YPG by a wide margin. That could spell trouble for an LSU defense that has not seen this amount of talent at the skill positions this season.

With four of their next five games here in Oxford (only road game at Kentucky), I can see Ole Miss going on a bit of a late season run. Granted, it wouldn't net them a bowl appearance (ineligible due to Freeze shenanigans), but it would still be a nice way to go out for the seniors who have stuck through and those looking to rebuild the program. Interim HC Matt Luke is still auditioning for a job. As for LSU, I hate this spot as they have a bye week on deck and then the showdown vs. #1 Alabama after that, so the players could be caught looking ahead. HC Ed Orgeron (former HC at Ole Miss) inserted his foot into his mouth earlier this week when he said this game didn't mean much “because the truth is the whole time I was there I was wishing I were here.” It's not like the home dog needed any more motivation after suffering a 38-21 loss (as seven-point dogs) in Baton Rouge last season. That marked the fifth consecutive time in this SEC West rivalry that the home team won, so again, I'm in no rush to lay points w/ the road team here, especially w/ LSU just 2-7 ATS its last nine "true" road games (2-5 as favorite). It's come full circle for them going from decided road favorite (Miss St) to decided home dog (Auburn) and now back again. Meanwhile, Ole Miss seems to be just now hitting its stride w/ Patterson completing 66% of his pass attempts.  8* Mississippi 

10* Florida Atlantic (5:00 ET): At the start of the season, I said Lane Kiffin was stepping into a good situation here in Boca Raton as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Granted, things didn't start out all that well on the scoreboard, but that was to be expected w/ the first two games at Navy and Wisconsin, two teams that right now are a combined 11-1 straight up. Since then, however, the Owls have gone 3-1 w/ the lone loss coming by three points at Buffalo. I cashed them three weeks ago at home against Middle Tennessee where they were in a price range similar to the one here and they won 38-20. That was followed up by a 30-point road win at Old Dominion and then they were off last week, which allows them ample time to prepare for a North Texas team already off B2B upsets. I see the Kiffin renaissance continuing this week. Lay the short number. 

The last two weeks have seen North Texas upset both Southern Miss and UTSA. They were 7.5-pt dogs at Southern Miss, a game in which they won 43-28, so it could certainly be called an "impressive" victory even though the Mean Green initially trailed 14-0. But last week's 29-26 win over UTSA certainly deserved to be filed in the "improbable" folder. This time, they actually got off to a strong start (led 16-7 after one quarter), but were down 26-22 w/ just over one minute left in the game and 98 yards away from their end zone. What happened next was just incredible. The Mean Grean marched down the field in seven plays, the last of which was a 22-yard TD w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Needless to say, it was one of the most stunning wins of the entire College Football weekend.

Despite their 4-2 SU record, North Texas is hardly outscoring foes (4.5 PPG) while FAU - at 3-3 SU - is actually +8.4 PPG. Off a bye, the situation is ideal for the home team while I just don't see how the road dog can summon up the energy again after last week's improbable result. Before the win at Southern Miss, North Texas had lost its first two road games by a total of 39 points. This is a team that had just seven road wins total the previous six seasons, three of those coming in the 9-4 SU season in 2013. FAU is rested and ready to go here and armed w/ some revenge after losing both previous visits from the Mean Green (four straight losses to UNT overall). This offense is good as it has topped 30 pts in three consecutive games and averaging 430 YPG for the season. I feel this line is off by a touchdown. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Indiana (3:30 ET): Michigan State is 3-0 SU in Big 10 play, but all three wins have come by seven points or less. Now I know the Sparty faithful are going to be quick to point out last week's "backdoor" situation against Minnesota when they were up 30-13 in the 4Q, only to give up two late touchdowns and lose the cover (were four-point favorites on the road). But what about the week prior when they stunned Michigan (again!) at The Big House, winning 14-10 courtesy of a +5 turnover margin, which in turn nullified them gaining only 252 yards on offense? Meanwhile, Indiana covered for me last week (had them +7.5), but for the vast majority of bettors, they fell short (again) against Michigan, losing in overtime. An 0-3 ATS record vs. Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan is downright criminal considering how well IU played those teams (well, at least 2 of the 3) and it's about time they finish one of these games proper. This could very well be an upset, but I'll take the points.

Like many of the other top teams in the Big 10, Michigan State has been played tough by Indiana. But the Hoosiers have not beaten the Spartans in B2B seasons since '93-'94, which was the ONLY time they've done it since 1969! They'll be going for history Saturday as last year, they did pull the upset (in a similar price range), 24-21 in overtime (I was on them). At no point in that game was IU not covering. Their last visit to East Lansing resulted in a highly misleading final of 52-26 as it was only a two-point game in the 4Q before an insane confluence of events conspired against them. From '93 to '14, Indiana appeared in only one bowl game ('07), but now the program is on a better trajectory as they're looking to make it three straight postseasons. Holding onto the "Ol' Brass Spittoon" would be a nice trophy en route. 

Entering this game at 3-3 SU, Indiana might very well have to pull an upset as the majority of their remaining "winnable" games are on the road. Rutgers at home is probably a lock. So they probably have to split the four road games against Mich St, Maryland, Illinois and Purdue. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 5-1 SU, but could easily be 3-3 SU. It will be interesting to see how Mark Dantonio's young roster responds to being in the favorite role moving forward. Prior to last week, the Spartans had not scored more than 18 points in over a month, which obviously makes it difficult to like them as chalk, no matter how good the defense is. Indiana's offense (redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey now starting) will be the best that they've faced since Notre Dame (only loss) and their defense comes in a little underrated (seventh overall in Big 10, fourth against the pass). With three conference wins by a total of 14 pts and a suspect offense, Michigan State is prime fade material here. 8* Indiana

8* Texas (12:00 ET): The Tom Herman era in Austin started not w/ a bang, but rather a whimper as his Longhorns were stunned in the season opener, losing 51-41 to Maryland (trailed 30-14 at half, but finished w/ 26-18 edge in FD's). But it turns out that result was the exception and not the rule as the Longhorns have covered every game since! Now they're just 3-3 SU overall having also lost to USC and Oklahoma. But both of those games were close and could have gone either way against favored and highly ranked opponents. Oklahoma State obviously presents a challenge, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but Herman has the Texas defense playing at a high level and I think they'll be up for it. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised if it ends up as an outright upset!

Oklahoma State comes in ranked #1 in the country in total offense at 610.7 YPG and #2 in scoring at 48.8 points per game. Their top two receivers - James Washington and Marcell Ateman - have both posted four straight 100 yard games, becoming the first duo to do so since 1996! Last week, the Pokes whitewashed Baylor 59-16, which was not much of a surprise considering they were off a bye and the game was in Stillwater. Shockingly, OSU has won each of its last four trips into Austin, the longest such streak by any visitor in the HISTORY of Texas football! But the Longhorns' defense just fared pretty well against an Oklahoma offense which came into the game ranked ahead of OSU in total offense. They held the Sooners to just nine points after halftime in what was a failed come from behind attempt.

Coming into this season, I viewed these teams as likely to trend in opposite directions compared to 2016. Texas was a lock to improve under Herman following LY's disappointing 5-7 SU finish under Charlie Strong. There were 17 starters back, 10 on defense, and the team actually played much better than that 5-7 record indicates. They lost five games by a TD or less, three of them when favored. Also, they actually outgained Big 12 opponents despite a 3-6 conference record! Earlier, I mentioned that Texas has covered every game since the opener (5-0 ATS) and Herman is now 7-0 ATS his L7 times as a dog w/ five outright wins! The Longhorns led both USC and Oklahoma in the fourth quarter and it's about "high time" that they win one of these close ones. I know everyone loves this OK State offense, but they were held in check by a TCU defense (at home) that isn't as good as the one they'll face Saturday. It's easy when you can throw the ball all over the field against inferior opposition, but that will not be the case here. 8* Texas

8* Old Dominion (6:00 ET): Old Dominion has "accomplished" something that's hard to do and that's lost four straight games by 30 or more points. The scores have been 53-23 (North Carolina), 38-0 (Va Tech), 58-28 (Fla Atlantic) and last week, 35-3 (Marshall). Now we all expected (at least I did) some regression from the Monarchs this season considering they aren't as experienced and were unlikely to have the same turnover margin as last year (+13). But, remember, this team won TEN games in 2016. So, it's definitely "hard times" down in Norfolk and things get no easier this week w/ a visit from the presumed C-USA East favorite Western Kentucky. For ODU, this is a revenge shot from their lone league last year, which came by 35 points in Bowling Green. They were only 13-pt dogs on the road there, so you can see how perception has swung in a year's time. As ugly as ODU's recent performances have been, I'll take the points here. 

Up until last week, Western Kentucky had not covered a spread this season (favored in every game so far). But they rolled up over 600 yds total offense on Charlotte (one of the worst teams in the entire country) in a 45-14 win as 17.5-pt chalk. The schedule has not been challenging to this point as the Hilltoppers have faced only one opponent ranked higher than 100 in my own personal power rankings (LA Tech) and they lost to them, by one, at home. They also lost at Illinois, which you normally wouldn't penalize them for, but the Fighting Illini are the worst Power 5 team in the country, and the Hilltoppers were favored there. Despite the weak schedule, WKU is only outgaining its opponents by 30 YPG this season.

WKU has won all three meetings vs. ODU, most of them high-scoring. In fact, the lowest scoring Hilltopper effort of the three was 55 points! But the offense isn't as prolific this year w/ former HC Jeff Brohm having gone to Purdue. They're averaging only 25.5 PPG through six games and the two road games (Illinois, UTEP) have seem them scored just 22 TOTAL! Old Dominion is hardly an offensive juggernaut, but a front seven that was thought to be the strength of the team coming into the year, has underachieved drastically. Note that last week, the Monarchs trailed Marshall only 14-3 entering the fourth quarter. They are on an 8-3 SU in conference home games, including 4-0 last season. It hasn't helped that they've yet to win the turnover battle in any of their games this season. RB Ray Lawly will return to the Monarchs' lineup this week and that will surely help the offense. 8* Old Dominion

8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston is still "picking up the pieces" from an embarrassing 45-17 loss at Tulsa on Saturday (were 14-pt favorites). I was on the Golden Hurricane in that game, and while I believed an outright upset was a distinct possibility, that final score took even me aback. It was a close game most of the way (total yardage virtually even) and UH even led 10-7 at the half! But Tulsa was not to be denied in the second half, scoring on each of its six drives! Two turnovers, one a fumble that was returned for a TD very late in the game, made the final score far more lopsided than it "should" have been. Of course, one of the reasons I played against the Cougs there is I thought they might be looking ahead to this game, an AAC West showdown w/ #25 Memphis.

Memphis comes in as one of THREE AAC teams currently ranked in the top 25 (UCF, USF). However, they are the "dreaded" ranked underdog against an unranked foe here. The Tigers come in averaging just over 40 PPG and can claim victories over UCLA and Navy. Their only loss was a rescheduled affair at UCF when they were blown out on the road, 40-13. Their only other road game so far came the following week at hideous UConn. So that's something to make a note of. I figured this team would compete for the AAC West crown as they came into the year as the most experienced group in the entire conference. However, they've been a little bit fortunate w/ three wins by eight points or less, two of them by a field goal (UCLA, Navy), Last week's win over the Midshipmen was greatly aided by forcing FIVE turnovers. The final one (an INT) preserved the 30-27 victory as Navy was driving for the potential game-tying (or winning) score. Given they forced five turnovers, you would think the Tigers would have won by a more comfortable margin. Bad news for them here is the fact they are 3-9 ATS when off B2B SU wins and 3-10 ATS when facing an opponent that has a winning record.

This is a big revenge spot for UH as they lost last year up in the Liberty Bowl, 48-44 as six-point favorites. They actually trailed by 17 at halftime before storming back and taking their first lead (37-34) w/ just over seven minutes left. The teams then exchanged touchdowns, again leaving the Cougars up three, this time w/ just 89 seconds remaining. But, they then gave up a 5-play, 72-yard drive, which ended in a touchdown for Memphis w/ just 19 seconds left. The previous year, Houston had to pull off a 20-point comeback here at home just to win 35-34 as five-point favorites (both teams were ranked). I don't see Major Applewhite's team falling into such a big hole this time around. Take away sack yardage and the Memphis defense is currently surrendering 242 yards per game on the ground. That ranks 114th nationally and every FBS opponent has gained at least 150 (over land) against them. So Houston should be able to move the ball effectively here (plus Memphis just had to dismiss a DL due to rape charges) and a Thursday night home game w/ revenge is motivation enough to put them over the top (UH is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS L5 Thursday games) 8* Houston

8* USC (8:00 ET): This is one of those rare instances where the public is likely going to be backing the underdog. After all, at worst, Utah has gone 4-0-1 ATS for bettors (5-0 for some), depending on your line for LW's tilt vs. Stanford where the Utes lost 23-30. Meanwhile, USC is a disappointing 1-5 ATS, ironically the lone cover coming against Stanford. But the pointspread is more than justified here, at least in my opinion, as Utah was a fraudulent 4-0 going into last week and nowhere near worthy of Top 25 status. USC, despite losing at Washington State (when down three offensive lineman), remains one of the most talented teams in the entire country. This is a revenge spot for the Men of Troy as they lost LY in Salt Lake after blowing a double-digit 4Q lead. 

Prior to the game at Wazzu, Southern Cal had not lost since last year in Salt Lake. Even in defeat, I thought they outplayed the Utes LY and I'm not just saying that because I had them. They outgained them, but were -2 in turnovers. It was a Friday night game and both of Utah's final two touchdowns came on long drives, the final one going 93 yards and ending w/ just 16 seconds left on the clock (gave Utah a 31-27 lead). Again, while the majority of results for USC have been closer than expected this year, I don't think it's right to bury them. They did lose three O-lineman at Wazzu (another Fri night game!), yet were still tied late in the fourth quarter against maybe the toughest opponent they'll see all year (Notre Dame?). Last week, I faded them, but that came as large favorites (33-pt spread) and though I ended up covering rather easily (38-10 final), USC really dominated the game from the outset. It was 28-3 at the end of three quarters and the Trojans still finished w/ a rather significant 512-319 edge in total yds. 

Utah has two road wins thus far, but both were by only six points, and they were quite fortunate to overcome Arizona a couple weeks ago. That game saw them outgained 448-341 only to benefit from FIVE turnovers, the last of which came at their own 20-yd line w/ the game hanging in the balance. Even worse, QB Tyler Huntley was injured in that game, necessitating a move back to 2016 starter Trevor Williams. Williams struggled against Stanford, barely completing 50% of his pass attempts. The Utes have been tremendous as an underdog the last several seasons, but this reminds me a bit of their last visit to the Coliseum, two years ago, where they were ranked #3 in the country (unbeaten at the time!), yet underdogs and lost 42-24. In my opinion, Southern Cal remains the class of the Pac 12 South. 8* USC

8* Tulsa (4:00 ET): I can't say that Tulsa's 2017 regression comes as any surprise, given that I had them earmarked to take a step back following LY's somewhat stunning 10-3 (SU) campaign. After all, they lost their starting QB, a 1,600 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers from that team, not to mention three of the top four tacklers on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I did not envision the Golden Hurricane coming into this key AAC West matchup at 1-5 straight up. They've lost four in a row, three of them close before last week's absolutely wretched deal at Tulane where a decision to move up kickoff was made very late (due to Hurricane Nate). It seems as if the Tulsa players didn't get that memo, however, as Tulane scored on each of its SEVEN first half possessions and went into the break up 48-7. The final score ended up being 62-28.  Back home this week, and getting lots of points, I expect a much more focused group. Take the points.

Houston came into the year as the favorite to win the division, just like last year when they underperformed (were considered New Year's Six contender) and finished only 9-4 SU in Tom Herman's final year. Major Applewhite was the OC under Herman, so there's not been much of a learning curve. That said, I feel the Cougars are a bit lucky to be 4-1 SU night. They've played nothing but close games (save for horrible Rice) and generally had the ball bounce their way. The season opener at Arizona (won 19-16) could have gone either way. They lost outright at home to Texas Tech, 24-17 as seven-point favorites, giving up over 500 yards of total offense (also turned the ball over five times). A 20-13 win at Temple (who has also taken a major step back this year) saw them benefit from turnovers, but the big story there was Ed Oliver suffering a knee injury. He did play last week against SMU, but as I'm about to get into, that was a pretty lucky cover for the Cougs.

You can probably file that Houston-SMU game last Saturday right at the top of the "bad beats" pile. Yeah, SMU was probably in line for a non-cover anyway based on a 5-0 ATS start. But as 10-pt underdogs, they didn't trail by double digits until early fourth quarter. Trailing 35-22, the Mustangs' next three drives all reached the Houston side of the field, but NONE of them resulted in points. Houston was outgained by 81 yds in the contest and if you take away that game against Rice, then the overall numbers look really subpar. Granted, Tulsa has work to do as well, but two of their losses were by a field goal, one as a 7.5-pt home favorite against New Mexico. Last week's performance is no way indicative of what Philip Montgomery's team can bring to the table. Looking to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home (and fifth in a row overall), I expect a strong effort from the home dog Saturday. Meanwhile, UH seems to be in an awful spot given the lucky cover last week, the fact they have a QB controversy brewing (haven't even mentioned that!) and are looking at a short week coming up w/ Memphis on deck (at home) Thursday. 8* Tulsa

8* LSU (3:30 ET): It is quite amazing to see the shift in the market and public perception for this SEC West matchup. The look ahead line over the summer had LSU as the 7-point favorite. Now the Bayou Bengals' disappointing play thus far certainly justifies a move in the market, but I have to now wonder if that move is too much, plus the public is ALL over Auburn here. Such lopsided endorsement of the road team, as a favorite no less, seems somewhat foolish as the home team is on a 15-2 SU run in this rivalry. Yes, LSU has failed to cover its last five times as an underdog. But three of those games came against Alabama. Auburn might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming into Death Valley this year, strange because they have not won here since 1999! Take the points. 

LSU opened its season w/ a 27-0 shutout of BYU in what looked to be an impressive performance. We now know that BYU's offense is terrible and the Tigers haven't covered since. They were actually 8.5-pt favorites AT Mississippi State, a game that seems like it was played eons ago, and that 37-7 loss is what really began the downturn. Note I played AGAINST LSU in that game. I also played against them vs. Syracuse when they never came close to covering (still won 35-26). But, without question, the nadir of the season came w/ the 24-21 loss to Troy two weeks ago. LSU had the edge in total yds there, but was undone by four turnovers. With their stock seemingly at an all-time low and fans openly questioning the Ed Orgeron hire, the team responded with a win at Florida, which tells me they're not going to roll over. The defense held the Gators to only 302 total yds and will now be stronger w/ the returns of Rashard Lawrence and Frank Herron on the edge. On offense, RB Derrius Guice missed the Troy game and has not gone over 100 yds since the 2nd game of season. But according to Orgeron, he's had a strong week of practice and is ready to go here. Remember that Guice ran for almost 1400 yds and had 15 TD's last year as a backup. 

Auburn's three-game SEC win streak has come at the expense of teams that are a combined 1-7 SU in the league w/ Ole Miss and Mizzou arguably being the weakest teams overall. They did dominate the same Mississippi State team that dominated LSU, but the winners of both those games were the home teams. Something else certainly worth noting is that LSU was the road favorite for this matchup last year and lost outright 18-13 (laying three). So it's a revenge game for them. Here, I do not expect Auburn's offense to come anywhere close to the production we've seen so far in SEC play. Rather, it should be a lower scoring type affair conducive to taking the points. Yes it was Clemson they were playing, but Auburn's offense managed just over 100 total yards in an earlier road game. The only other road game they've played was at Missouri, who is awful to begin with and turned the ball over four times. 8* LSU

8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Plenty of points are expected in this Big 12 matchup (total is 75!), but I'm far more intrigued by the side in what looks like a trap spot for the short home chalk. Sure enough, the sharp dollars quickly flowed in AGAINST WVU here taking them from a TD favorite to nearly a field goal. What makes this a trap spot for the Mountaineers is that they are coming off a tough loss LW at TCU (both teams were off byes), 31-24, as 12.5-pt underdogs. It was a game WVU finished w/ the edge in total yards (508-406) and first downs (28-16), but two turnovers cost them and they gave up the GW TD w/ just under three minutes remaining. Texas Tech is a live dog here as not only did they go for 600+ total yds LW, but they also are 19-9-2 ATS overall their L30 games. Take the points (even though you may not end up needing them). 

The majority of signs were pointing down coming into the year in Morgantown. This is far from HC Dana Holgorsen's most experienced team as he had only eight starters back from last year's squad that finished 10-3 SU. Of course, that 10-3 SU record included a rather fortuitous 4-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. (BYU, Kansas St, Texas and Baylor were the teams they beat close). Ironically, one of LY's biggest wins in conference play came against Texas Tech, 48-17 (-2) in Lubbock. But that was actually the 'Neers' first cover against the Red Raiders since joining the Big 12. They were 0-4 ATS previously even though they've now won the L3 meetings (straight up). In their first game of '17, WVU was go-against team in my 10* Game of the Week and they lost to Va Tech. I wasn't all too impressed by a subsequent three-game win streak as the teams they beat included East Carolina (terrible), Delaware State (FCS) and Kansas (worst team in Big 12). That lack of impressiveness there is somewhat confirmed by them failing to cover twice. Last week's loss in Ft. Worth does not set them up well here as they are 1-6 ATS L3 seasons off a conference loss.

Texas Tech's only loss came two weeks ago to Oklahoma State, a game which really wasn't as close as the 31-24 final indicates. But they do have wins over both Arizona State and at Houston. Last week was not close as it was their turn to blow out Kansas, 65-19 as 14.5-pt chalk. It's worth noting they dominated Kansas far more than WVU did. We know this team can move the ball as they come in averaging 549.8 YPG. Last week marked the 3rd time they broke the 600-yard threshold. Now WVU does average roughly 30 more YPG, but you might be surprised to learn that the Texas Tech defense is better overall and on a yards per play basis (5.5 to 6.1). While I'm a bit surprised to see the Red Raiders ranked in the AP Poll (#24) (they replaced WVU!), I feel this game sets up well for them as it's a triple revenge spot and WVU has lost nine straight to ranked opponents. The Red Raiders can also run the ball, something that has NOT been the case in past seasons. 8* Texas Tech

10* Army (12:00 ET): Burdened w/ expectations for the 1st time in the Jeff Monken era (4th year here at West Point), the Cadets are having a little bit of an issue covering spreads. They've actually been favored four times previous to here and gone just 2-2 ATS. However, it's interesting to note that all four times saw them asked to lay double digits, which is NOT the case this week as they welcome Eastern Michigan to campus. EMU achieved its greatest success in years last season (1st bowl appearance since '87!), but was expected to regress here in '17 and has responded in kind. They've dropped three in a row, albeit all by a TD or less. I don't like this spot for the visiting Eagles - at all - as not only is it a third consecutive road game, but stepping outside of MAC play right now probably isn't for the best. Lay the points.

Army did cover as a favorite LW, routing RIce by a final score of 49-12 (-12), on the road no less, their first win in Houston since '58. Now Rice is undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the country and they turned the ball over SIX times. But building a 35-0 by halftime was impressive for the Black Knights. Not exactly known for forcing TO's, Army forced one on each of Rice's first four possessions and scored a TD off every one! Their forte is of course running the football and they went for 418 yds over land, their most since the opener. They figure to have success here against an Eastern Michigan defense that has struggled against the run in four of its five games this season. Speaking of defense, Army has been pretty impressive on that side of the ball thus far. Only Ohio State has topped 21 points against them and Eastern Michigan isn't likely to, given they come in averaging only 19.0 PPG. 

This will be the third meeting in five years between these two schools as they've alternated every season. Army has won both prior meetings, scoring 50 or more each time. They are 6-1 SU all-time against the Eagles. Off three consecutive tough losses, it's going to be tough for Eastern Michigan to "get off the mat" here. Against Ohio U, they fell in double OT at home. Then came perhaps the toughest loss of the bunch, at Kentucky, where despite an edge in total yds they lost 24-20. Last week in Toledo, QB Brogan Roback threw an INT at the Toledo 31 yard line w/ just over a minute to go in a 20-15 loss. Given the turnover issues that have plagued EMU and what Army did to Rice last week, TO's again figure to be a deciding factor in this one. We know Army can run the ball, but Eastern Michigan cannot as during the three-game losing streak, they've averaged only 43.7 yards per game. 10* Army

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Home dogs off a bye haven't performed as well as you might think ATS, but here Indiana happens to be catching Michigan at a most opportune time. Yes, you can dissect the Wolverines' horrid 14-10 home loss to Michigan State last week (were off a bye themselves) any way you'd like. They outgained Sparty (slightly) only to be undone by an ugly -5 turnover differential. But the Maize and Blue happen to be in real trouble right now as they're down several key players on the offensive side of the ball and backup QB John O'Korn did not look good at all last Saturday night. Furthermore, ranked teams off a loss have not fared well in the past, cashing in around just 45% when favored or on the road. Michigan happens to both this week and a popular choice among the public as well. Take the points. 

The fact that Indiana went 0 for 2 ATS against Ohio State and Penn State is misleading at best and criminal at worst. They played both Big 10 heavyweights tough. The season opener here in Bloomington saw IU "tooth and nail" w/ Ohio State for almost three quarters (led 21-20 w/ 4:56 left in 3Q!) only to wilt late due to an inability to stop Buckeyes' RB JK Dobbins. Michigan does not have a back anywhere near as dynamic as Dobbins. The Penn State game might have looked ugly on the scoreboard (lost 45-14 as 20-pt dogs), but note the Hoosiers turned it over four times in that game, two of which were INT's returned for touchdowns. I thought their defense held up really well against a potent Nittany Lions offense, holding them to just 370 total yds and Heisman front-runner Saquon Barkley to 56 yds on 26 carries. Again, the offense they'll face this week is nowhere near as good as Ohio State or Penn State's. Michigan is averaging barely 4.0 yards per rush and has a backup in at quarterback. Michigan's defense might be #1 in the country and forcing three and outs, but Indiana's is actually #2!

Now the Wolverines do have one of the better defenses in the entire country. But they've also yet to face an offense as good as what Indiana brings to the table. The Hoosiers' 34-17 win over Virginia (on the road!) keeps looking better and better given how the Hoos have subsequently performed. Furthermore, Indiana will keep the Michigan defense "on its toes" as they are likely to rotate QB's w/ senior Richard Lagow and freshman Peyton Ramsey (made 1st career start last week). No matter who is in at QB, they will have a talented set of receivers to throw the ball to. The Indiana defense has seen O'Korn before as he started against them LY due to a different Wilton Speight injury. That game saw the Hoosiers EASILY cover as 24-point underdogs in "The Big House." The last meeting here in Bloomington was also an easy cover as it went to double OT. While IU has not beaten Michigan since 1987 (lost 21 straight!), on paper, this year sets up as their best shot at an outright win. 8* Indiana

8* BYU (12:00 ET): Yes, Mississippi State is off a bye here and looking to get back on track after B2B embarrassing defeats at the hands of Auburn and Georgia (two admittedly very good teams). And they probably couldn't have asked for a better opponent as BYU rolls into Starkville for this early kick. BYU has lost five straight since a season opening win over FCS Portland State and has yet to cover a single pointspread here in 2017. Their 0-6 ATS record is in fact the worst in the entire country. But as bleak as things look right now in Provo, I believe this line has moved enough (hit the key number of 24!) to make taking the underdog worth the shot. As I've written about extensively before, teams getting three touchdowns or more this season have been KILLING it, going 82-47 ATS including 6-2 last week! Take the points.

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I did think last week was an opportune time to back BYU as well. They jumped out to a 7-0 lead on Boise State, but would not score again and lost 24-7 as 7-pt underdogs. Certainly, we are not used to seeing BYU football play this poorly. I will point out that the lone FBS team they were favored against was Utah State and the money moved in sharply against them there (I actually had USU). That game saw BYU again take an early lead, only to be foiled by SEVEN turnovers, which negated an edge in total yards. While this team isn't good, I still think they're better than how they've looked so far. Before the current 0-4 ATS mark this year, this team had covered 8 of 10 in the underdog role. 

I think MSU is still getting "residual credit" for its 37-7 beatdown of LSU last month, which given the Tigers' subsequent struggles, no longer looks as impressive as it once did. All that goodwill earned for HC Dan Mullen there was quickly undone w/ the pair of losses to Auburn and Georgia, who outscored them 80-13 w/ significant yardage advantages. QB Nick Fitzgerald, who was made to look like a Heisman candidate by BYU, struggled badly in both losses. Stepping outside the SEC schedule here, off a bye no less, may not exactly be the most inspiring spot for the Bulldogs, especially given the state of the opponent. Be aware that last season saw BYU upset Mississippi State, in Provo, 28-21 (+7) in double overtime. Yes, that means the "revenge angle" is technically in play, but I'm not sure that will mean much to the Bulldogs' players here. Certainly not enough to actively seek out winning by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for. That game LY saw MSU never trail in regulation, but they failed to put the game away. This is BYU's longest losing streak since 1970 (!), so I feel they will actually be the more motivated side Sat afternoon. 8* BYU

10* Syracuse (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Football and #2 Clemson is probably among the least surprising of them. The defending Nat'l Champs have not played an easy schedule by any means, holding wins over three Top 15 teams (at the time) - Auburn, Louisville & Virginia Tech. More impressive is that both ACC wins came on the road, though in retrospect those two wins may not have been as impressive as originally thought. At 6-0 SU, Tigers' fans are likely pointing to the B2B games in November against NC State and Florida State as the most likely stumbling blocks. But w/ an open date looming next week, they shouldn't sleep on this weeknight matchup at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is an improved team this year and can certainly score.

The Tigers appeared to the be on their way to an easy cover LW in Death Valley against Wake Forest. They led 28-0 in fourth quarter (laying 21), but then gave up a pair of late TD's to allow the Demon Deacon in through the proverbial "back door." More critical, however, was the injury to QB Kelly Bryant (left w/ ankle injury). Bryant has surprised everyone so far in how well he's filled in for DeShaun Watson. But, at less than 100 percent, I'm interested to see how he performs. HC Dabo Swinney is on the record as saying he believes Bryant will play, but if he doesn't, it will be either a redshirt freshman or true freshman starting instead. That could be problematic on the road. Impressive as they've looked so far, coming into the year I had Clemson slipping record-wise as it was unlikely they'd be able to match LY's 7-1 record in games decided by seven points or less. They were 3-1 SU in such games the year prior. Don't forget though; last year they were upset by Pitt (as 21-point favorites) - at home.

Syracuse is an experienced team as they brought a FBS-high 19 returning starters back for HC Dino Babers, now in his second year here. Babers, who came over from Bowling Green (boy have they gone in the toilet since he left), was expected to immediately improve the offense and that's exactly what's transpired as the Orange come in averaging 32.0 PPG this year. They're only 3-3 SU mind you, but all three losses were by single digits and two were on the road against LSU and NC State. Last week, they overcame an early deficit to beat Pittsburgh 27-24 as three-point chalk. While it ended up being a close game (Pitt scored late TD), Syracuse put up 500 yards of total offense and had 10 more first downs. At 3-3 SU right now and with games left against Miami, Florida St and Louisville (all on the road), the Orange are going to have to pull at least one upset in order to make a bowl game. I'm not saying they'll pull that necessary upset, but this is obviously the biggest home game of the year and I expect them to play well. 10* Syracuse

8* South Alabama (8:00 ET): These teams had very different results their respective last times out, which was two Saturdays ago. Of course, Troy stunned the College Football universe by going into LSU and upsetting the heavily favored Bayou Bengals, 24-21 as 20.5-pt underdogs. Though the Trojans should be given plenty of credit for the biggest win in program history, they were outgained and the beneficiaries of four LSU turnovers. South Alabama, on the other hand, was on the wrong end of a bad beat at Louisiana Tech that same evening. Getting double digits, the Jaguars were down only one point entering the fourth quarter. Sadly, they were outscored 17-0 the rest of the way w/ the final TD allowed coming after they'd turned the ball over deep in their own territory, late. This is an in-state rivalry that USA, being the neophyte program, wants to make more relevant. I'll be taking the points here. 

South Alabama had a very interesting season last year. They beat both Mississippi State (on the road!) and San Diego State (who was ranked #19 at the time). However, they still finished only 6-7 SU after a loss in the Arizona Bowl to Air Force. Also, besides the two upsets, they covered only other game (finished 3-10 ATS). Right now, they have a long way to go before they can start thinking bowl game. The lone SU win this year came at the expense of a FCS program (Alabama A&M). Now, to be fair, the season opened w/ games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. But it's been the last two results that have proven to be less kind. Not only did they fall apart at La Tech, but in the Sun Belt opener, they fell (at home) to Idaho in double overtime, 29-23, giving up the game-tying TD w/ less than a minute to go in regulation.

Since South Alabama made the move from the FCS level in 2012, these teams have met four times. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three of the games decided by seven points or less. That's what I'm looking for here. Troy clearly comes in a bit overvalued due to the historic upset of LSU. Coming off a 10-3 SU season, the Trojans are now 4-1 w/ four straight victories (lost opener at Boise State), but the last three have all been by five points or less. They are a team that I projected to regress in '17 and truthfully, an outright upset would not shock me this evening. Troy is just 4-9 ATS its L13 home games and 0-5 ATS off its previous five bye weeks. 8* South Alabama

8* UNLV (10:45 ET): In last week's analysis on UNLV, I said that this was an undervalued team based on that embarrassing loss to Howard in the season opener. That loss, to a FCS opponent, set a new standard for upsets in College Football as the Rebels were 45-point favorites in the contest. Since then, however, the Rebs have gone 3-0 ATS. They've blown out both Idaho and San Jose State here in the desert and stayed within the number at Ohio State. Saturday night's game will carry a very special meaning at Sam Boyd Stadium considering the tragic events that took place in Las Vegas just last weekend. I expect a very inspired effort here from the home dog and an outright win is NOT out of the realm of possibility. Take the points. 

Looking at the opponent, San Diego State looks to be in a pretty tough spot. They are in off a pretty fortunate 34-28 win over Northern Illinois where they were outgained by nearly 200 yards. They were able to pull out the win, at home mind you, thanks to forcing four turnovers and scoring two non-offensive touchdowns. While this is the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams here, I think it's fair to say that the Aztecs could be inclined to look past UNLV and towards next week's home date w/ MWC standard-bearer Boise State. Even though the Broncos aren't what they "once were," that's a big game for SDSU as they try and claim conference supremacy. For them, this game might just be a look ahead and that makes them very vulnerable as a road favorite.

Last year's meeting w/ SD State did not go well for UNLV as they were held to season lows in points (7), total yards (122) and first downs (9). They lost 26-7 as 15.5-pt road dogs. This year's team has a far more explosive offense (nine starters returned) as they've now hit 40+ points three times (Ohio State game the only exception). Last week, they went for 548 total yards in the 41-13 thrashing of San Jose State that I was on. It was also their third game going for at least that many yards (again OSU the exception). There is good skill position talent here w/ Lexington Thomas at RB and Devonte Boyd at WR. The past three seasons have seen the Rebels go 4-2 - both straight up and against the spread - as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 pts. That includes an outright win at Idaho back in Week 2. 8* UNLV

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona basically gave a game away to Utah two weeks ago as they outgained the Utes 448-341, but turned the ball over FIVE times, the last one being the most costly. Trailing by six w/ less than three minutes to go, the Wildcats had the ball at the Utah 20-yard line only for QB Brandon Dawkins to fumble the ball away. It was a real "blown opportunity" considering Utah's starting QB left the game in the second quarter due to injury. Under normal circumstances, I might question how the Wildcats respond their next time out, but fortunately here they've had more than a full week off to recover and prepare for Colorado. Rich Rod's team was not particularly good against the spread (2-10) last year, so to me, there's some inevitable progression set to take place. Take the points here.

Colorado was in the Pac 12 Championship Game a year ago, but calls for them to regress in 2017 were almost universal. Sure enough, they've opened conference play 0-2 SU w/ losses to Washington and UCLA. The Pac 12 Title Game rematch vs. UW went worse than expected w/ the Buffs losing 37-10 as 10-pt home dogs. Colorado did score first (first quarter TD), but after that it was all Huskies (37-3). As disappointing a result as that was, last week against UCLA was probably worse. The Bruins came in a tattered bunch, off B2B losses where they'd surrended over 100 points. But even though they moved the ball, the Buffs could never get the lead in the second half and fell 27-23 as touchdown underdogs. 

Last year, Arizona dropped a game in Tucson, 49-24 to Colorado as 16-point dogs. That may seem like a pretty lopsided affair, but Arizona actually had the edge in total yards only to have to constantly settle for field goals, three of which were missed. Note that the Wildcats had won the four prior meetings. What do I feel will be different from last year? How about the Wildcats' defense, which held both Houston and Utah in relative check? After allowing 38.3 points and 469 yards per game last season, those numbers are down to 22.2 and 376 so far this season.  The Colorado offense is in the bottom half of the league offensively in scoring, passing, rushing and total yardage. Arizona has shown it can run the ball this year (200 yards vs. Utah), so look for them to put points on the board here against a Colorado defense that was gashed by the run against Washington and the pass by UCLA. 10* Arizona

    

8* Boston College (7:15 ET): There are a number of games this week where the driving force behind my play is that I don't like the situation at all from the opponent's perspective. Such is the case here w/ Va Tech, who was crushed last week (at home) by Clemson and has an open date on deck. After suffering their first loss of the season in such a high-profile spot, I think it's right to question how the Hokies will respond. Typically, they do respond well (6-1 SU off an ACC loss L3 seasons), but the only other "true" road game they've had to play prior to this was at lowly East Carolina. This is the first time they've had to leave the region and B.C. has the edge of having played an easy game last week (beat Central Mich 28-8) after their own loss to Clemson. I'll take the points here.

Boston College has played a very challenging schedule to this point. They opened w/ a road win over Northern Illinois, which now looks a lot more impressive than it did back then. (NIU won at Nebraska). The next three games were against Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson, all losses, but I though the Eagles competed a lot harder in all three games than the final score indicates. Four turnovers killed them against Wake Forest, turning what was basically an evenly played game into a lopsided final. Then the Clemson game was actually tied 7-7 (on the road!) going into the fourth quarter. So don't let that 34-7 final fool you either. Last week saw B.C. finally get back into the win column w/ a commanding 28-8 win over Central Michigan here in Chesnut Hill. Special teams played a big factor in the win, but they also ran for a season-best 224 yards. Fortunately, freshman A.J. Dillon is fine (left LW's game) and will play here after his first 100-yard game.

While B.C. was able to enter the fourth quarter tied at Clemson before eventually wilting, Va Tech couldn't get within two TD's of the defending National Champs in the second half, even at home. The fact that the Hokies outgained the Tigers is a little misleading even in the face of a -3 turnover margin. They actually trailed by THREE touchdowns for a majority of the second half. I really can't understate what a discouraging loss that had to be for the Hokies as they went in thinking upset w/ the ESPN Gameday cameras present. Now that they've been humbled and have an open date to look forward to, I see them failing to separate here against a team that typically is strong on the defensive side of the ball. 8* Boston College

8* UAB (4:00 ET): Returning from a two-year hiatus, UAB football has struggled early on in 2017, just as you might have expected. Well, they're actually 2-2 SU, but it's been a pretty weak schedule to this point. Two weeks ago, they lost a wild 46-43 game at North Texas as 10.5-pt underdogs. Twice they rallied back from down two scores (30-14 and then 43-29) only to lose "at the gun" on a last-second field goal. After tying the game 43-43, the Blazers allowed UNT return man Evan Johnson to take the ball to nearly midfield, setting up a relatively easy game-winning drive. But they've had a week to recover (off last week) and it's Homecoming at Legion Field this week. This will be a motivated dog. Take the points.

Louisiana Tech has burned me a couple of times this year, last week in particular. Laying almost two touchdowns, they led South Alabama by just a single point going into the fourth quarter. But they would go on to outscore the Jaguars 17-0 in the final 12:17 to "steal" the cover. The final score came w/ 3:17 to go and was a 27-yd TD run, a one-play drive set up by USA turning it over on downs. I'll go ahead and tip my cap to you if you were a La Tech backer in that one, but I'll also question what the Bulldogs may have left here after the late surge vs. South Alabama and the two preceding games both being decided by one point (one win, one loss). Last week was the 1st time they were asked to lay points to a FBS foe this year and this will be the first time they've been asked to do so on the road. There's a much-needed open date next week, which the players may already be looking forward to. 

To clarify something I said at the top, yes, UAB didn't even have a team in 2015 or '16. But they did hold scrimmages last year and Bill Clark, who took over before 2014 (led team to a 6-6 record), remained w/ the program. After opening w/ a 38-7 win over Alabama A&M, they were "blown out" at Ball State (lost 51-31), but actually had the edge in total yds in that game, 504-377. It was a close game that was broken open late due to a kickoff return for a TD and some untimely turnovers. Then came a nice win here at home over Coastal Carolina where the Blazers led the whole way. So this team has really played pretty well, all things considered, in the four games so far. As for La Tech, after three straight tight games and a visit to Mississippi State, I just have to wonder what's "left in the tank." Not enough to cover a double digit spread on the road, in my estimation. 8* UAB

8* Oregon State (4:00 ET): Attrition (no bye weeks) was the most predominantly cited factor for USC inevitably coming up short in its bid for the College Football Playoff, but little did we know it would begin to take hold so early in the season. The "Men of Troy" finally came up short on the scoreboard last Friday, losing up in Pullman to Washington State by a score of 30-27 as five-point favorites. While it may have been their first SU loss of the season, it was by no means the first time they'd struggled and that's reflected in the team's 1-4 mark at the pay window. Really, the only game where they looked "good" was against Stanford. They struggled to get by Western Michigan, Cal and Texas, not pulling away until late against the first two and needing multiple OT's to get by the latter. This looks to be a terrible spot for Clay Helton's team as they are laying a massive number to desperate and winless Oregon State. I'll take the points.

Now Oregon State is 0-5 ATS, tied w/ BYU for the worst such mark nationally. They were blown out last week at home, losing 42-7 to unbeaten Washington. It was their fourth 30+ point loss of the season, which is terrible considering Beavers fans were thinking bowl game coming into the season. Now they'll just take a win. Unfortunately, I don't see them being favored in any game the rest of the way. So the fans will have to settle for a cover here. Sure, they've lost 23 straight visits to the Coliseum and 15 straight on the road overall. But as a dog of more than three touchdowns, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 seasons. Nationwide, teams are 76-45 ATS when getting three touchdowns or more this season. 

USC was down three offensive linemen in last week's loss to Wazzu, so they have an excuse for losing. But I can see the players not taking this game very seriously as there's a much bigger home game on deck against Utah, who may come in undefeated. Two of the three offensive lineman that were out against Washington State may again be out here. We know starting guard Viane Talamaivo won't play as he's done for the year w/ a torn pec. Right tackle Chuma Edoga hasn't practiced all week. Getting back to the pointspread, this will be - easily - the most points they've had to lay in any game in the Clay Helton era. While the players will be justifiably angry after losing last week, I don't think that anger carries over into a blowout here. Not w/ a bigger game looming. Also, Oregon State has to eventually cover, right? 8* Oregon State

8* Appalachian State (3:30 ET): New Mexico State is currently tied w/ SMU for the best ATS record in the nation (5-0) and one of only eight teams left that has covered the pointspread in all of its games (six others all either 4-0 or 3-0 ATS). They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and in the case of NMSU, it's certainly helped, as they're only 2-3 SU. Last week, they just barely snuck inside the number against Arkansas, losing 42-24 as 18.5-pt chalk. (Ironically, the Hogs are still an "0-fer" against the number). Admittedly, that was the first time all year that the Aggies were "blown out," but I don't like their chances here against a rested Appalachian State team that came into the season favored to win the Sun Belt. Consider that in LY's reg season finale, App State beat NMSU 37-7 as 19-pt ROAD favorites. Not enough has changed in 10 months time to justify this price swing. Lay the points. 

App State has lost twice already, but both times were to Power 5 foes. They were a trendy underdog call in the season opener at Georgia, but lost there 31-10. That loss was followed by a pair of expected wins over Savannah State and Texas State. Then came a rare home game vs. a P5 foe, Wake Forest, and the game was close. Unfortunately though, despite a 494-344 edge in total yards, the Mountaineers came out on the wrong end of a 20-19 final (did cover as 5.5-pt dogs, however). They had a 27-18 first down edge as well, but what would have been a game-winning field goal (w/ five seconds left) was blocked. I have to think the players have been "chomping at the bit" (to get back on the field) following such a close call and to me, NMSU is in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Appalachian State was playing for a share of the regular season SBC Title in last year's meeting and took no prisoners, scoring the game's first 17 and final 20 points. They outgained the Aggies 604-240! Most of the key contributors from that blowout victory returned for this season. Granted, New Mexico State is much improved this season and close losses to Arizona State and Troy now look even better considering those teams have gone on to beat Oregon and LSU, respectively. But the bye week was big for App State as they can prepare for the NMSU offense, which is almost entirely reliant on the pass. From a scheduling standpoint, this is not a great spot for the underdog as it's their second straight road game and fourth in six games. Meanwhile, it's Homecoming in Boone and I think the alumni are rewarded w/ a big win and cover Sat afternoon. 8* Appalachian State

8* Kent State (3:30 ET): I absolutely hate this spot for Northern Illinois. Yes, they did outgain San Diego State last week (417-263), but a -4 turnover margin ultimately doomed them to a 34-28 loss. SDSU had TWO non-offensive TD's, one an INT return, the other a kickoff return to start the game. NIU did at least leave w/ the cash though, covering as 9.5-pt underdogs. That improves them to 4-0 ATS and the week prior they went to Nebraska and won straight up, 21-17 despite a rather significant DISadvantage in total yds. Three of their four games thus far have been decided by six points or fewer and they've been a dog all three times against FBS competition. That's what makes this line "look a little large" from my perspective. Off B2B wild non-conference road games, I'm not sure this MAC opener will have their full attention, even on Homecoming weekend. Kent State may not be good, but they're at least battle-tested (played at both Clemson & Louisville already!) and that should have them prepared to stay within the number. Take the points.

While NIU has played mostly close games, Kent has mostly been on the WRONG end of some blowouts. They lost to Clemson & L'ville by a combined score of 98-6, though they did actually cover against the latter thanks to a 42-point spread! They've also been shutout by a much improved Marshall team, 21-0. I should point out, however, that all three teams that blew out the Golden Flashes are all higher ranked (in my own power ratings) compared to Northern Illinois. Last week, Kent lost 27-13 at Buffalo and like NIU, they outgained the opposition 444-377. It was a game that saw only ONE TD scored in the second half (by Buffalo) and the Bulls also benefited in the 1st half by getting to start a drive inside the Kent 10-yd line.

These teams met in LY's regular season finale w/ NIU winning 31-21 as a six-point road favorite. As you can see, it's been a pretty significant swing in the market to now have them favored by over three touchdowns, even after factoring in the change in venue. Over the L3 seasons, Kent St has covered both times it has been a road dog of +21.5 to +31. Furthermore, nationwide, we've seen teams getting at least 21 points go 76-45 ATS this season. It's not as if Northern Illinois' possesses a dominant offense. They are averaging only 26.7 PPG and 5.1 yards per play w/ opponents topping both of those averages. Three years ago, which is the last time Kent State came to DeKalb, they easily covered a similar spread as they lost only 17-14. 8* Kent State