10* UTSA (3:30 ET): Texas State already has a game under its belt and while it was a loss, things really went better than anticipated against heavily favored SMU. The Bobcats “only” lost 31-24, easily covering as 24.5-point home dogs. The game also stayed well Under the 71.5-point total, which I enjoyed as I had the Under. Despite the Under, Texas State still put up over 400 yds of total offense and averaged over 5.0 YPC on the ground. QB Brady McBride completed 21 of 39 pass attempts for 229 yards and 2 TDs. It was a really competitive game against a much better team. 

UTSA is dealing with some attrition entering the season opener. Eight players are going to miss this game due to COVID-19, which makes things tough for a new coach staff. But I still expect Jeff Traylor’s offense to move the ball in this one. Texas State gave up 544 yards last week to SMU and the Roadrunners have a RB in Sincere McCormick, who sent numerous school records as a freshman last season, including an 189-yd effort vs. UTEP. Traylor’s offenses always seem to feature a productive RB, so expect a big sophomore season from McCormick. Last year, the UTSA defense led C-USA in tackles for loss.

In its last 26 games, Texas State has beaten just ONE FBS opponent by more than a touchdown. So while UTSA is dealing with the COVID issue, I believe they’ll at least hang tough. In fact, before factoring in homefield advantage, I’ve got the Roadrunners higher in my power ratings than Texas State. So being able to grab this many points seems like a luxury. Texas State is just 3-8 ATS its last 11 home games and was favored by a TD or more just once in that span. It was LY vs. South Alabama and they only 30-28. Take the points. 10* UTSA

8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): So Arkansas State already has a game under its belt and it was a 37-24 loss at Memphis. Though the Red Wolves left with the cash (as 18.5-point dogs), they were probably left kicking themselves for not playing a tighter game. Three turnovers were the undoing, although the defense giving up 500+ total yards was going to make it hard to pull the outright upset. Kansas State might not be Memphis, but they are a P5 team that’s had extra time to prepare and offer a widely different look than Memphis. 

Kansas State was a solid team for Chris Klieman last season. Klieman was in a tough spot replacing a legend in Bill Snyder, but his first season in Manhattan produced eight wins including an upset of Oklahoma. While the Wildcats must replace four O-lineman in 2020, the defense and special teams are solid and QB Skylar Thompson is back for his senior season. Thompson accounted for 23 TDs last season, 11 of which came on the ground. This game should allow for him to “pad” his passing numbers as last week, Memphis’ QB Brady White completed 72% of his passes. 

This is a tough spot for ASU, who is going on the road for a second week in a row to face a marquee opponent. Their QB situation is not yet settled (played 2 last week) and Kansas State has a much better defense than Memphis. While it may look like a lot of points, Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS L11 as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. Time of possession will be key here as LY saw K-State rank ninth in that department while ASU was 113th. Even before factoring in a minimal homefield advantage (there will be fans), I thought this number was simply too low. Lay the points. 8* Kansas State

8* UAB (8:00 ET): I think we all need to take a moment and appreciate the job HC Bill Clark has done with UAB football. This program actually ceased to exist for two seasons (2015-16) due to the university’s financial situation. But in the three years since its return, the Blazers have won 27 games and appeared in the last two C-USA Title Games, even winning the 2018 version. They were one of the most inexperienced teams in the entire country LY, but are now one of the MOST experienced in 2020 w/ 18 starters back.

Miami is in many ways the opposite of UAB. They are considered a College Football “institution.” Yet the Hurricanes have just ONE bowl win since 2006 and posted a losing record last season at 6-7 SU. Yet the ‘Canes got the coveted “Most Improved Team in the Country” moniker from Phil Steele in his publication, largely due to QB D’Eriq King transferring in from Houston. That kind of attention often leads to a team being overvalued early on in the season and that’s precisely the case here for “The U” in Thursday’s opener.

For the record, I agree with Steele that Miami is going to be improved this year. But they had just TWO double digit victories last season, both over non-bowl teams, so I find it hard to believe they’re going to be able to come out and dominate a team like UAB that has experience and won 9 games a year ago. This has been a weird offseason to say the least and Miami could have some growing pains integrating its key transfers. Not only is UAB experienced, they did get six spring practices in and have a game already under their belt. Last week’s 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. Miami is just 7-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons w/ 12 outright losses! 8* UAB

10* Navy (8:00 ET): 2019 saw Navy make the jump from 3-10 to 11-2 straight up. Not only that, but the Midshipmen were also one of the best bets in the country at 10-3 ATS. Last season’s bounce back in Annapolis was largely inevitable as the 3-10 SU record in 2018 was the worst in any season under HC Ken Niaumatalolo. Regression this year is every bit as inevitable, but look for the Middies to still win a bunch of games. This game w/ BYU is a lot better matchup than the originally scheduled opener, which was Notre Dame in Ireland. 

BYU was supposed to open its season against “Holy War” rival Utah. But with the Pac 12 cancelling its season (for now), the Cougars head across the country instead. BYU had its own “down” year in 2018, winning just 4 games. But they’ve since gone 7-6 SU two straight seasons. Three of the wins last year were by a field goal. A major issue that they are dealing with right now is the injury to TE Matt Bushman. His season ending Achilles injury means BYU will be without last year’s four top receivers. 

Another issue I see for BYU in this game is that their defense was very susceptible to the run a year ago. They gave up 168 YPG over land, the most ever under HC Sitake. As we all know, few teams in the country are as adept as the Naval Academy is when it comes to running the football. They put up 361 YPG rushing LY at 6.1 YPC. This line has “jumped the fence” (meaning BYU now favored), but wherever it ends up, the fact BYU is 1-4 SU/ATS its L5 games where the line is a FG or less and Navy is 4-1 SU/ATS will apply. Navy won all six home games last season, doing so by an average of more than 20 PPG. My own power ratings suggest they should be about a 7-pt favorite here and that’s w/o factoring in much of a home field advantage. 10* Navy

10* Clemson (8:00 ET): Not prejudiced at all by what happened with my Bowl Game of the Year on Ohio State, which lost despite the Buckeyes outgaining Clemson 516-417. If anything, I GAINED more respect for the Tigers, who have now won 29 straight games and are 6-2 SU all-time in the CFP. This program is now set to appear in the Championship Game for the 4th time in 5 seasons and is seeking its 3rd title in the last 4 seasons. Looking back to last year’s Title Game, I now feel like a bit of a “broken record” as I can’t believe I’m getting so many points with a team that has this kind of resume. Clemson can win this game. Take the points.

LSU obviously had no difficulty in the Peach Bowl, annihilating Oklahoma by a score of 63-28. QB Burrow threw for SEVEN TD passes in the 1H alone as the game was never in doubt. But it must be pointed out that there was a severe dropoff between the top three teams in CFP and Oklahoma. No one expected the Sooners to win once, let alone twice. Meanwhile, Clemson just beat the team many (myself included) considered the best team in the country most of this year. 

The big reason I faded Clemson in the Orange Bowl was I did not believe they should have been the favorite. But now they’re an underdog and I see plenty of value. Going back to the 2015 Title Game, Clemson has been a dog just six times. They are 5-1 ATS with four outright wins. All but one of those games were in the CFP. Those who think LSU is going to move the ball up and down the field against what is still the country’s top scoring defense (11.5 PPG allowed) are sorely mistaken. On the flip side, I expect more points from the Clemson offense here as they are freed from the poor field conditions at the Orange Bowl. The Tigers had the nation’s best scoring differential in the regular season and are 11-3 ATS. 10* Clemson

10* Ohio (3:30 ET): Of the 78 FBS teams that made it into a bowl game, we have Nevada rated as the worst. The Wolf Pack went 7-5 SU in what was a "down year" in the Mountain West Conference and had only two wins by more the seven points. Those two wins were against UTEP and New Mexico, who combined for a 3-21 SU record. Two stunning upsets - over Purdue and San Diego State (both coming as 17-pt dogs) - are what got them to Idaho for the Famous Potato Bowl. 

Ohio had a disappointing regular season as many, myself included, figured this was the year they'd finally win a MAC Championship for HC Frank Solich (15th season in Athens). But the Bobcats still are w/o a MAC Championship going all the way back to 1968. The reason for that is tey underachieved this year, losing four different times as a favorite. But even though neither played in the Conference Championship Game, we still consider OU right next to Western Michigan as the best teams the MAC had to offer this year. The Bobcats offense averaged nearly 35 PPG and is led by QB Nathan Rourke, who threw for 2,676 yards w/ a 20-5 TD-INT ratio. 

Adding to the list of Nevada issues is that five players have been suspended for this game. Four of them are defensive starters. Three are among the top six tacklers on an already suspect defense (32.1 PPG allowed). Three of the four suspended defensive starters won't play at all, the fourth will miss only the 1st half. The reason for the suspensions was a fight w/ UNLV at the end of the regular season finale. The Wolf Pack were outscored by nearly 11 PPG this year, a stunning margin for a bowl team. Basically the entire defensive coaching staff was let go after the loss to the UNLV. While this number has already moved some, that's okay as we have Ohio as almost a two-touchdown favorite for this one! 10* Ohio 

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): Indiana has not won a bowl game since the '91 Copper. Granted, they've been to only four since, but this program is dying for something resembling a "marquee" victory. Beating Tennessee in the Gator Bowl would certainly qualify. The Hoosiers have perennially struggled to beat the top teams they face as is evident by a shocking 1-16 SU record as an underdog under HC Tom Allen (third year here). But A LOT of those games have been close. My own power rankings say IU should be the favorite here, so I'll take them with the added value.

Things were not looking good for Tennessee after a 1-4 SU start that included a home loss to Georgia State. But credit HC Jeremy Pruitt for turning things around in Knoxville as the Vols finished on a 6-1 SU run w/ the lone loss coming to Alabama. But as far as SEC schedules go, the one UT made its run against was pretty easy. It has only two wins over bowl teams, those being Kentucky (by 4) and Mississippi State (by 10). They lost to Florida, Georgia and Bama by an average of nearly four touchdowns per game. I'm really not sure why the Volunteers were bet to the role of favorite here. 

Admittedly, you could say some of the same things about Indiana as they didn't beat a single bowl team and all of its losses were to teams ranked at the time. But I come back to the Hoosiers wanting that elusive bowl win. In the two years before Allen's arrival, they were close, losing by three in overtime to Duke (Pinstripe) then by two to Utah (Foster Farms). The latter was actually Allen's first game as HC (was interim). I'm trusting my own numbers and for the Hoosiers to be the more motivated side here. 10* Indiana

10* Georgia (8:45 ET): A stunning number of Georgia players (13!) will be sitting out here in order to avoid injury. As a result, the 5th ranked team in the country has been bet down considerably for this Sugar Bowl matchup w/ Baylor on New Year's Day. Almost all the players that are sitting out can be counted among the two-deep on the roster and six are starters. But it sure seems as if people are "forgetting" how good the Bulldogs were this year. Those who do suit up are going to be motivated and with the number being bet down so much, I'm willing to lay it!

Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country. Sure, they gave up 37 points to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. But given how the top-ranked Tigers looked against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal Saturday, that's really not all that bad. It was actually 12 pts below LSU's season average and one of only three times the Tigers were held below 40 pts in the regular season. I know Baylor HC Matt Rhule has an incredible ATS record when getting points (34-14 all-time). But even with QB Charlie Brewer back under center (suffered concussion in Big 12 Champ Game), I believe the Bears are going to struggle to score here. 

Those Georgia players that do take the field New Year's Night will be motivated. Not just because everyone is seemingly "writing them off," but also because of what happened in this game last year. The Bulldogs were 12-point favorites against Texas, came in and gave an uninspired effort and lost outright 28-21. I had the Under on that game, which was also a double-digit winner. I don't see history repeating itself w/ UGA laying an egg in B2B Sugar Bowls. This is great value as Baylor overachieved this year, winning four games by less than three points or in overtime. 10* Georgia 

8* Western Michigan (12:30 ET): If Western Michigan doesn't show up motivated for the First Responder Bowl on Monday afternoon (in Dallas), then I don't know what to say. They lost the regular season finale (as a 10-point favorite) at Northern Illinois, which cost them a chance to play for the MAC Championship. The Broncos were probably the best team in the MAC this year. They beat both teams that ended up in the Championship Game - Miami by 22 and Central Michigan by 16. They have both the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year from the conference.

Western Kentucky went 3-9 SU last year. So not many people were expecting a bowl appearance in Tyson Helton's first season in Bowling Green. But the Hilltoppers improved all the way to 8-4 SU on the back of pulling five outright upsets, one of them 45-19 over Arkansas, which was ironic because that's where QB Ty Storey transfered from. I am surprised that WKU is favored here. They were a favorite just four times in the regular season, none of those against bowl teams (one was a FCS team). They faced only four bowl teams all year and went 2-2 SU in those games (beat Southern Miss & UAB).

Another motivating factor for Western Michigan here is their 1-8 SU record in bowls. They got embarrassed out in Idaho LY by BYU 47-18. I realize that the Broncos had just one win outside Kalamazoo this year, but I believe they are the better team here. Thus, getting points, I'm on board. They were an underdog in only four games in the regular season and the only one where they were getting more than 3.5 points was against Michigan State. Western Kentucky is just 4-12-1 ATS its L17 games as a favorite w/ eight outright losses.  Take the points. 8* Western Michigan 

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): One bad first half (Big 10 Champ Game vs. Wisconsin) and it seems as if everyone is flocking to get off the Ohio State bandwagon. That has me scratching my head as the Buckeyes were the best team in the country during the regular season, covering the spread by an average of 11.8 PPG, the highest mark of any team. I did NOT agree with the Buckeyes being moved down from #1 to #2 in the final CFP Rankings and think they now offer a tremendous value as an underdog (1st time all season) going for revenge against the team that embarrassed them in their last CFP appearance. Take the points. 

Now Clemson is not without its own merits. They are the defending National Champions and come in with the best ATS record in the country at 10-3 (covered 4 in a row). But it's difficult (for me) to look past the massive difference in strength of schedule that exists between them and Ohio State. The ACC was easily the weakest of the Power 5 conferences this year as no other team finished inside the top 40 of my own personal power rankings! The only Top 40 team Clemson faced was Texas A&M and that was early in the year at home. While the Tigers appeared to peak down the stretch, they were going up against some really depleted and overmatched opponents. 

You can go ahead and throw out that 1H Ohio State played vs. Wisconsin. It was a really tough spot for the Buckeyes as they went into the game not even needing to win to make the playoff. The fact they still ended up winning by double digits is quite impressive. Nine of Ohio State's wins this year came against teams that are currently in my Top 40 and remember they won every game by double digits. Compare that to the one Top 40 win Clemson has. Once I saw the Buckeyes open as the underdog, I knew this had to be my top bowl selection. The only time they have been a dog since 2014 was LY's game vs. Michigan, which they ended up winning 62-39. The program has won outright the L7 times its been a dog! 10* Ohio State

8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I get the sense coming out of South Bend that the Fighting Irish faithful view the 2019 season, Brian Kelly's 10th leading the program, as a step back. I suppose that makes sense. Notre Dame was in the CFP last year, though that certainly didn't end well. But the Irish did go 10-2 SU this year. One of those losses was to Georgia and they covered the spread. The other was to Michigan, which was NOT a good performance, but that game was also played in a driving rainstorm. Since going down to the Wolverines, ND has won five in a row and is 4-1 ATS. 

Iowa State is looking to finish 8-5 SU for a third straight year under HC Matt Campbell. Four of their five losses this year were by a TD or less. They did spend a good part of the season in the Top 25, but also lost three of their last five games to fall out of the rankings. Ranked opponents were generally the ones that gave the Cyclones trouble as they lost 2 of 3 such games and that doesn't even include a loss to Baylor, who was not ranked at the time. The one win over a ranked opponent was Texas, who did not finish the year in the Top 25.

Notre Dame is #15, which is where they should be. Interesting is that both of the Fighting Irish's losses came as dogs. They were a perfect 10-0 SU as favorites, covering the spread in all but three of those games. While ISU's record as a dog (14-4 ATS w/ six outright wins L3 yrs) must be respected, I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Because they've struggled in bowls recently, I expect Notre Dame to come out motivated for this one. 8* Notre Dame

8* Michigan State (3:20 ET): There's no denying that Michigan State underachieved this year. That can be quickly confirmed by their 3-9 ATS record. But I'm still surprised to see Sparty laying such a short number in this year's Pinstripe Bowl to a clearly inferior Wake Forest side. I still consider Mark Dantonio's team to be a top 30 team (in the country) despite its pedestrian 6-6 SU mark. There are issues offensively, but the same can be said for their opponent, who is dealing with uncertainty at QB and a depleted receiving corps. I'm going to lay the short number here.

Wake Forest has won and covered three straight bowl games under HC Dave Clawson. But there is some uncertainty over who will be starting at QB in the Pinstripe Bowl after Jamie Newman got hurt in the final regular season game. If Newman can't go, it will be Sam Hartman under center. Regardless if it's Newman or Hartman, the Wake Forest receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries this year. All the injuries resulted in the Demon Deacons losing three of their last four games. They haven't won a game outside of Winston-Salem since beating Boston College 27-24 in the final weekend of September. Their only other road win was against Rice. 

The Pinstripe Bowl is unique in that it is played in cold weather (NYC). Sure enough, that's led to the Big 10 (more accustomed to the cold) going 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC in the bowl's short history, the only loss coming in overtime. The Big 10 is clearly better than the ACC this year. While their offense struggles, the Spartans have a massive defensive edge here as WF gives up nearly 35 PPG away from home. Being in a bowl was clearly important for MSU as they won their final two regular season games to get here. Sparty is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. WF is 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS as an underdog in the same price range. 8* Michigan State

8* Miami FL (4:00 ET): Miami does not have a good recent history in bowl games. They've gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine, including last year's complete "no-show" vs. Wisconsin (lost 35-3). This year, "The U" heads to Shreveport, LA for what will be a de facto road game against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. Despite that history of failing to "get up" for bowl games, I am shocked to see how this number has been bet down so much. The Hurricanes are simply more talented than their opponent, which played the weakest schedule in all of the FBS. Yes, some players have elected to sit this one out for Miami (preparing for NFL Draft), but I believe the holdovers will indeed "show up" Thursday afternoon. Lay the points. 

I thought Miami would contend for the ACC's Coastal Division title. Interestingly enough, they did defeat division champ Virginia 17-9 in a game they were favored to win! They also easily could have beaten the team favored to win this year's Orange Bowl, that being #9 Florida, but blew a 4Q lead in that one (season opener). Three terrible outright losses down to the stretch (Ga Tech, FIU, Duke) definitely took the shine off Manny Diaz's team. But they still have a tremendous defense that ranked 13th in the country in yards allowed (307.6 per game). Louisiana Tech simply did not face a team this talented all year w/ the possible exception of Texas, who crushed them by 31 points.

La Tech's recent bowl history is good as they have won five straight. But the Bulldogs also have to shake off some disappointment from the way they ended the regular season. QB J'Mar Smith was among the key suspensions down the stretch that cost this team the chance to play in the C-USA Title Game. The suspended players are all back, but it's difficult to look past the fact that La Tech is just 2-3 SU vs. bowl teams w/ those wins coming over FIU and Southern Miss. Also, the defense is going to be without its top cornerback as he's sitting out for the Draft. I think the Bulldogs' offense is going to struggle against this Miami defense and the undervalued favorite (which should be laying double digits) is going to come through  8* Miami FL

***Note: This analysis was written prior to the announcement that several FAU players would be suspended. But I am still recommending a play on FAU at the current number!***

10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): The Boca Raton Bowl is a home game for FAU, who won this very bowl game 50-3 (over Akron) two years ago to cap an incredible first season under Lane Kiffin. Ironically, this same bowl is where the next chapter of FAU football will begin as Kiffin has moved on to Ole Miss and won't be coaching Saturday. Kiffin departs having gone 26-13 SU in his three seasons in Boca Raton, twice winning 10+ games and a C-USA Championship. Willie Taggart, fresh off failing over at Florida State, will be Kiffin's replacement. But DC Glenn Spencer will serve as the interim for the bowl.

SMU was shaping up to be a really nice story, starting 8-0 for the first time since 1982 (program's heyday, pre "Death Penalty") and there was talk that Sonny Dykes' team would be making it to the Cotton Bowl, which would have been one heck of a story. But the Mustangs dropped two of their final four regular season games and were pretty much an afterthought in the AAC race going into the final weekend. That shouldn't take away from what the team has accomplished in two years under Dykes, but the only bowl teams it beat were Arkansas State, Temple and Tulane. 

Were it not for Kiffin leaving, you'd have to think FAU would be the favorite here. A coach leaving is obviously a very big deal, but this is still a home game for the Owls, who have won six in a row. There were no signs of "packing it in" in the C-USA Title Game when they dismantled UAB 49-6 on this field. I was 3-0 ATS taking FAU this year, including that C-USA Title Game. They are +14.5 PPG at home and it should be pointed out that since opening 0-2 (lost to UCF and Ohio St!), the Owls are 10-1 SU and have scored 31 or more pts in every game but one! They aren't as strong as the team that covered this game as a 22-point favorite two years ago. But they shouldn't be getting points either. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Virginia (7:30 ET): After what they did for me last week, how could I not come back with the Hoos here? As my *10* College Football Game of the Year last Friday, they ended what had been a 15-year losing streak to rival Va Tech w/ an outright 39-30 win as 2.5-point dogs. Thus all seven teams in the ACC Coastal have now won the division in the last 7 years. Hopefully, Virginia is not just "happy to be here" as defending Nat'l Champ Clemson awaits them in the Conference Championship Game. I'm willing to bank on that NOT being the case and will grab a HUGE number.

Anyone who follows my plays knows I have no loyalty to any team. This play is clearly more about the number than what Virginia did last week. It's actually the second year in a row Clemson comes into the ACC Title Game as a four-TD favorite. They covered last year, beating Pitt 42-10, but that was an inferior foe to what they'll be facing here. Yes, the #3 ranked Tigers have destroyed everything in their path the last two months, winning seven straight by an average of more than 41 PPG. Their only ATS loss during that stretch was to FCS Wofford as they were laying 49 in a 45-point win. But Virginia is the strongest team Clemson will have faced these L2 months. 

It has not always been pretty for Virginia, but they've averaged over 41 PPG during a current four-game win streak. Their largest loss (in terms of margin) this season was 15 to Notre Dame and that was a game that they actually led at the half. They still ended up outgaining the Fighting Irish, but could not overcome five turnovers, one of which was a fumble returned for a touchdown. The other two Cavaliers' losses were by 7 and 9 points. As we saw last week, QB Bryce Perkins is a playmaker. Clemson doesn't need "style points" here. They just need to win. Look for the dog to stay within the number. 8* Virginia

10* Georgia (4:00 ET): What separates this game from the two other Conference Championship Games involving unbeaten teams (Big 10, ACC) is that the underdog also happens to be playing for a chance to make the College Football playoff. #4 Georgia will be in the CFP w/ a win Saturday over LSU. While that's "easier said than done," I don't think the gap between these two SEC schools is as large as the oddsmakers seem to believe. I've got the line closer to a field goal than a touchdown and that's some pretty substantial value on a side that has everything to gain. Take the points.

Georgia's only loss this year was in double overtime to South Carolina. You may recall that I was on the right side of that one. However, let it be noted that the Bulldogs were -4 in turnovers in that game, negating a rather huge 468-297 edge in total yardage. So they easily could be undefeated coming into this game, just like LSU. Were that the case, this line would be a whole lot shorter. The Bulldogs' defense has a claim to be the best in the country as it gives up only 10.3 PPG (2nd best behind Clemson). It's a better defense than Alabama and the best LSU will have faced all year. Offensively, UGA is going to have to run the ball effectively here. They should considering LSU has allowed running backs to average more than 6.0 YPC the L5 games. 

There's no denying how good LSU is, but I just don't think they are a full TD better than Georgia on a neutral field. Obviously, it's pretty rare for Georgia to be an underdog. They are 3-0 ATS in that role under HC Kirby Smart. Remember that LSU's only two "comparable" opponents would be Bama and Auburn and the Tigers only won those games by a combined eight points. This is Georgia's third straight year playing for the SEC Title, which is a bit of an advantage as well. They also have big time revenge for an ugly 36-13 loss in Baton Rouge last year where they actually came in as a 7-point road favorite. Special teams edge goes to the underdog here as well. 10* Georgia

10* Florida Atlantic (1:30 ET): UAB should be commended for a remarkable "rebirth." Three years ago, there wasn't even a football program! But after two years of suspending operations, HC Bill Clark has helped lead one of the great stories in College Football. Over the last three seasons, the Blazers have won 8, 11 and 9 games. This is the second year in a row they are playing for the C-USA Championship. They won it last year, beating Middle Tennessee 27-25 as a 1-pt home dog. But this year they have to travel to face Florida Atlantic, who won this game two years ago. 

FAU had a down year in 2018, winning only five games. But Lane Kiffin has the Owls right back where they were in 2017. Well, maybe they aren't quite as good as that team, but they have blown through the conference schedule. They are 7-1 SU in C-USA play, outscoring teams by 17.3 points per game. Since losing to Marshall on 10.18, the Owls have won five straight - all by double digits. Twice in the regular season they were a big play for me, once against Charlotte and the other against Western Kentucky. Both times they were drastically undervalued, which is again the case here. 

While UAB should be lauded for what it has accomplished these last three seasons, the fact is they played arguably the weakest schedule in the entire country this year. They faced only four bowl teams (Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern Miss, La Tech) and the only one they beat (La Tech) was dealing w/ a bunch of suspensions. Plus that was the only one of the four games that was at home. In six road games during the regular season, the Blazers averaged only 18.2 PPG. Other than Marshall, FAU's only other losses were to Ohio St and UCF, the first two games of the season. The Owls are again the class of C-USA and will demonstrate that on Saturday. 10* Florida Atlantic

10* Oregon (8:00 ET): Since losing at USC on a Friday night (a result I was on the right side of!), Utah has won eight in a row - both SU and ATS - and only once during that win streak has the final margin been LESS than 25 points. But they've really not had to face many quality opponents either. Only three of the teams they played went on to become bowl eligible and none won more than seven regular season games. The one close game they did play over the L2 months was at Washington where they had to rally for a 33-28 win as three-point chalk. The Utes did not face North Division Champ Oregon in the regular season. 

Oregon actually wrapped up its division sooner than Utah, despite having the inferior overall record. Maybe that says something about the North, but it actually had more teams finish bowl eligible than the South did. The Ducks' two losses this year have been by a total of nine points and one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) saw them in the lead for 59+ minutes. There is no shame in losing to Auburn nor Arizona State, who got Oregon two weeks ago in what was my Pac 12 Game of the Year. While Utah can lay claim to having beat ASU 21-3, the Ducks can claim to have beaten USC 56-24 and that was on the road. (Utah got ASU at home). 

Utah lost the Pac 12 Championship Game last year (10-3 to Washington), so that'll serve as extra motivation. Not to mention a win here would place them in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. But you can't discount an Oregon side that has been an underdog just one time this year (the Auburn game) and gives up only 15.8 PPG. The Utes were fortunate to extend their ATS win streak last week as they scored late to cover the 29-point spot against Colorado. Oregon will easily be Utah's toughest opponent to date while the Ducks have the confidence knowing they should have beaten a comparable Auburn team (that just beat Alabama). Take the points. 10* Oregon 

8* Army (11:59 ET): Everything about this situation screams "Army!" They have to win to get bowl eligible. They are coming off a bye. Before the bye, they had easy wins over UMass and VMI. Hawaii's situation could not be any more different. They are off a huge 14-11 win over San Diego State that guaranteed them a spot in next week's Mountain West Championship Game vs. Boise State. With that lookahead, the last thing the coaching staff wants to do is spend time preparing for the unique Army offense. Even before factoring in the obvious situational edge Army has, they should not be an underdog in this game. Take the points.

Army won 21 games the previous two seasons, so 2019 has been a bit of a disappointment. All six losses this year have been by single digits, three of them by five points or less. Disappointment aside, this is such a favorable matchup. Not only because of the extra week to prepare for the long trip to Honolulu, but also because Hawaii's defense can be quite bad at stopping the run. The Warriors are bottom 10 in the country in yards per carry allowed and figure to have face the run 60+ times in this game. Earlier in the year, Hawaii faced Air Force and gave up 353 yards rushing on almost 7.0 YPC! Yikes! That ended up being a 56-26 loss.

As if the situation couldn't be less favorable for Hawaii, the forecast is calling for high winds, which will limit their passing attack. Tip your cap to the job HC Nick Rolovich has done in his two years in Honolulu. No one expected the Warriors to make it to the Mt West Champ Game this season. But the excitement of doing so works against the team this week. Keep in mind Hawaii needed a missed FG last week to preserve the win over San Diego State. The offense has scored only 35 total pts the last two games. 8* Army

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): Things couldn't have possibly gone any better for Arizona State last week as they upset Oregon 31-28 as a 2 TD underdog. The win got the Sun Devils bowl eligible while simultaneously killing any shot Oregon had of making the CFP. But that result sets up this rare spot where ASU is unlikely to be able to have the same intensity for their rivalry game as they did last week. Arizona will treat this year's edition of the "Territorial Cup" as its "bowl game" as they come in at 4-7 SU. Last year, the Wildcats needed to beat ASU to get bowl eligible but lost. They'll certainly be hungry for some payback here. Take the points.

Failing to make a bowl in B2B seasons is hardly how the faithful in Tucson envisioned the Kevin Sumlin era starting. But that's the reality here. The Wildcats have not covered since a 35-30 win at Colorado (were +2.5) back on October 5th. Since pulling that upset, they are 0-6 SU and ATS. While an outright win here seems unlikely, if the Wildcats can't show some pride, then Sumlin's stay here could be a short one. You can't keep getting blown out, week after week. Winning this rivalry game would at least be a nice way to end a disappointing season. 

While I struggle to write anything positive about Arizona here, this is more of a fade on ASU. Not only is it a difficult spot due to being off a big-time upset, but the Sun Devils have not been good as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as chalk for Coach Herm this season including three outright losses. The split in two years under Edwards is now pretty severe. ASU is 2-8-1 ATS when favored. Getting points, they are 9-5 ATS w/ six outright wins. This is just the 6th time under Edwards that they've been favored in a Pac 12 game and they've failed to cover the last four including three outright losses this year! The Sun Devils have only had to lay more than 7.5 pts twice in 2019 and those games resulted in ATS losses vs. Sacramento State & Kent State. 8* Arizona

8* Colorado (7:30 ET): Well, Arizona was unable to get the job done last week. But you can expect more motivation from Colorado here against #6 Utah. I was impressed by the effort from Mel Tucker's team in a 20-14 upset of Washington last week where they were 2 TD home underdogs. The Buffaloes do to hit the road this week and while another upset is unlikely, it would give them bowl eligibility. Because of that, I don't see this turning into another Utah blowout. The Utes are red hot, but could be looking ahead to next week's Pac 12 Championship Game vs. Oregon. They'll win, but won't cover. 

Utah technically has not qualified for the Pac 12 Championship Game yet They need to win this game. Obviously, judging by the pointspread, winning seems like a formality. The Utes have won and covered seven straight since losing at USC on a Friday night back in September. That 7-game ATS win streak is currently the longest in the country. There is no doubt that this is an impressive team that has the credentials to make the College Football Playoff were they to win out. But even though six of their last seven wins have come by at least 25 points, I see this being "closer than the experts think." It's the biggest number the Utes have had to lay to any FBS opponent all season.

Colorado dominated the line of scrimmage in last week's upset of Washington, running for 207 yds at 5.0 YPC. They held the Huskies to just 238 total yds, including only 32 on the ground. It was the second game in a row the much maligned Buffaloes defense allowed 14 pts or less. It's not going to be that easy here, but they enticement of a bowl opportunity should keep the underdog motivated throughout. The Buffs played a couple "stinkers" at Oregon and Washington State, but three of their other four losses have been by a TD or less. Utah is entering a game w/ some real pressure for the 1st time and I think they play this one pretty "close to the vest."  They've not been a 28+ pt favorite vs. a FBS foe in the L5 seasons. 8* Colorado

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): This game will determine the winner of the Big 10 West and who goes on to face Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Big 10 West was thought to be pretty wide open coming into the year, so it's not that big of a surprise to see a team like Minnesota coming from "relative obscurity" to challenge for the crown. But it also should be pointed out that the Gophers have played the easiest Big 10 schedule possible by avoiding both Ohio State & Michigan. They've been favored in almost every game, save for the loss to Iowa and a game against Penn State where they gave up over 500 yards. Wisconsin is the better team here. 

The Badgers are a team I once considered to be "top 5 worthy." Their season obviously changed w/ B2B weeks where they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite and then were blown out by Ohio State. After allowing just 29 pts total the first six games (FOUR shutouts!), the Badgers have given up 21 or more to the L5 opponents. Yet all but one win this year has come by at least nine points. They have outgained opponents by 173.1 YPG this season. Not afraid to lay the short number here as Wisconsin is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite. 

This is actually the oldest rivalry in College Football as it dates back to 1890. Minnesota snapped a 15-year losing streak last year w/ a convincing 37-15 win in Madison, a game which they came in as 11-point underdogs. I'm sure the Badgers remember and revenge will be a factor. The Golden Gophers have not won "Paul Bunyan's Axe" (trophy the teams play for) B2B years since 1993-94. This boils down to the fact that I have simply been more impressed w/ Wisconsin this year. Minnesota is still a team I'm not sure deserves to be mentioned among the top 15 nationally, even w/ their WL record. There were five different games they easily could have lost this year. 10* Wisconsin

10* Virginia (12:00 ET): While much of the College Football world will be focusing in on the big Ohio State-Michigan game this weekend and whether or not the underdog can reverse an ugly series history in that particular rivalry, the same narrative also rings true here in the Commonwealth Cup. In fact, things have been even more one-sided here, if you can believe it. Virginia has lost to Va Tech a record 15 consecutive times with many of the recent battles being close. Last year's defeat was among the most painful as UVA blew a 4Q lead and fell in OT. 

Virginia came into this season w/ its eye on winning the ACC's Coastal Division. That goal will be accomplished if they can finally beat the Hokies. Despite the dreadful series history, there is some good news here for the Cavaliers. The game is in Charlottesville where they are a perfect 6-0 SU this season, winning by an average of 20 points per game. Their offensive output jumps up to 41.2 PPG here at Scott Stadium, which is well above what the average is on the road. The Hoos have been the most consistent Coastal team in 2019 and this is the first time they have been a home dog all season.

The bad news is Virginia Tech comes in hot. The Hokies share the same records as UVA as both are 8-3 overall and 5-2 in conference. But the path Va Tech to get here is a little different. They've caught fire in the second half of the season, winning six of seven (only loss was by 1 pt @ Notre Dame) after suffering what was a humiliating 45-10 defeat to Duke in a Friday night home game. The Hokies are also on a 6-0 ATS run after starting 0-4 ATS. Because they're hot and have had Virginia's number, this number has already changed significantly from the time it opened. I keep coming back to "if not now, when?" for Virginia. My projections say they should be a 5-pt favorite here. I'll trust those numbers and the fact Va Tech has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 games w/ a line of 3 pts or less. 10* Virginia 

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams going in more opposite directions than these two Pac 12 South rivals. Utah saw it's impressive run continue last week w/ a 49-3 beatdown of UCLA. The Utes have now won and covered six straight since suffering their only loss of the year - on a Friday night at USC. Those six wins have come by an average of 34.1 PPG!  Clearly, this is a team worthy of its Top 10 ranking in the CFP (currently #7) and they appear to be on a collision course w/ fellow 1-loss team Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. 

Speaking of Oregon, Arizona lost to them last week by score of 34-6. That leaves the Wildcats on the cusp of missing out on a bowl for a second straight season, hardly the way Kevin Sumlin envisioned his Tucson tenure starting. They are currently 4-6 SU and would need to win the next two games (at Arizona St next week) just to be bowl eligible. Given the pointspread in this game, the likelihood of an outright win is rather minute. But the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason. I see a desperate home team getting a lot of points and like the situation. 

I realize Arizona has failed to cover five in a row. But coupled w/ Utah's six-game ATS run, this game just feels like it's going to be tighter than expected. Getting blown out again this week would be a severe blow to the Sumlin regime, which has already seen midseason turnover on the staff. It's worth noting the Utes do give up 19.2 PPG on the road (about 8.0 more than season average) and while they only allowed 3 pts last week, UCLA certainly moved the ball on them. Not that they would have won, but five Bruins turnovers were huge in that game, especially since one was returned for a TD and another occurred at the Utah goal line. UCLA also threw an INT in Utah territory and missed a FG. When it came to covering the spread, those plays were the difference. Hopefully, Arizona plays a clean game. If they do, look for them to cover. 8* Arizona

10* Arizona State (7:30 ET): Oregon is #6 in the latest CFP ranking and may actually have a path to the playoff were there to be some late-season chaos in the SEC. But of course, the Ducks must handle their own business between now and Selection Sunday. They've already clinched the Pac 12 North and a likely showdown w/ fellow 1-loss team Utah looms in the Conference Championship Game. It's ironic that the SEC holds Oregon's fate because the Ducks' lone loss came in the season opener vs. Auburn, a game which they led for all but nine seconds. 

Arizona State is just trying to get bowl eligible. This will be the fifth try for Herm Edwards team, which enters in on a four-game losing streak. Were they to lose again this week, then the Sun Devils would need to win next week's Territorial Cup against Arizona for that elusive sixth victory. They'd obviously like to avoid that as there's an ever-so-slight chance the Wildcats could also enter that game needed a win for bowl eligibility. I like this spot for Coach Herm as he is 8-5 ATS as a dog since returning to the College game w/ six outright wins. The three times he's been a DD dog (2-1 ATS, one SU win), his defense has allowed just 55 total pts. Going back to before Edwards got here, ASU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a DD dog, including SIX outright wins. 

Furthermore, Oregon has not had the most pleasant experiences when visiting The Grand Canyon State. They've lost three of the past four times playing either Arizona or Arizona State and were favored in all three losses. That includes their previous visit to Tempe (2017) where they were -15 and lost 37-35. Not saying the Ducks lose this one, but it's a lot of weight to lay. They were pretty fortunate to beat Washington and Washington State (both wins by 4 pts or less). Three of ASU's five losses have been by five points or less and only one (Utah) by more than 10. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels has still looked good during the losing skid, save for that Utah game, completing 69% of his passes w/ a 9-0 TD-INT ratio in those other three games. ASU should score enough to at least cover here. 10* Arizona State

10* Missouri (7:30 ET): Well, Mizzou has definitely done a good job of letting us down the last two weeks. One of the two losses was somewhat understandable as they were stuck w/ a backup QB against Georgia. But after teasing his return for that game and not delivering, Kelly Bryant did return last week vs. Florida and it shockingly meant little as the Tigers were held to only six points in a 4th straight loss. The first three losses were all on the road. Now the Tigers are in the position of still needing a win just to become bowl eligible. I think they'll get it on Senior Night. Lay the short number here. 

Like Missouri, Tennessee comes into this game needing one more win for bowl eligibility. Same as the Tigers, the Vols are going to be favored next week against a last place conference foe. So, as far as the postseason goes, both teams remain in fine shape. But the difference is right now UT seems to have the "momentum" (hate that word!) after three straight wins. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS the L5 games and 4-1 SU w/ the only loss coming against Alabama. Still, I think it's important to look at the whole picture and not just a small sample size. Missouri was once ranked and has been favored in all but two games. Tennessee hasn't sniffed the Top 25 and has been a dog in every SEC game this season! Things are due to turn for both teams. 

After scoring 31+ in each of the first six games, Missouri has scored only 27 pts total its last four games. Not to keep using that same word, but I cannot stress just how "shocking" this freefall truly is. Good for them then that Tennessee has averaged just 11.0 points and 255.3 yards per game on the road this season. The Tigers' defense is allowing just 13.5 PPG here in Columbia. So the Volunteers aren't going to score much. Not to make excuses, but LW's game vs. Florida swung on a couple bad calls that went against Mizzou. It was just a 6-3 game at halftime. They won't be falling for Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt being so "coy" with his QB situation (Jarrett Guarantano is getting the bulk of the snaps). 10* Missouri 

8* NC State (8:00 ET): When Georgia Tech was initially bet up for this Thursday night matchup, I didn't understand the line move at all. NC State, for all their issues right now, still has a chance at becoming bowl eligible (if they were to win out). As injury-laden as the Wolfpack might be right now, their issues don't run as deep as those for Ga Tech, who is experiencing the expected growing pains in moving from the triple option to a more "pro-style" offense. Last week's 45-0 loss to Virginia Tech shows the Yellow Jackets still have a ways to go. Take the underdog here. 

Now NC State has lost four in row themselves - both SU and ATS. But a win here would potentially set up a game w/ North Carolina next week where the winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser stays home for the postseason. The game will take place in Raleigh. While November has been ugly so far, let's note that the Wolfpack did outgain Louisville last week in a 34-20 loss, 377-326. They led at halftime. But their undoing was a -3 turnover margin. Incredibly, NC State's defense has not forced a turnover since a win over Ball State on Sept 22nd! That can't continue. Georgia Tech has been pretty generous in giving the ball away this season (1.7 turnovers per game), so look for the Wolfpack's turnover-less streak to end here. That'll be key to victory. 

Georgia Tech is just 2-8 and has nothing left to play for this season. Their offense is averaging just 16.5 PPG and they got steamrolled last week here at home, 45-0. Virginia Tech outgained them 451-132 in what was a major step back for HC Geoff Collins' first year in Atlanta. While the Yellow Jackets have typically owned this ACC rivalry (12-3 SU L15), those were better teams they were putting on the field. This team is last in the country in red zone efficiency. NC State has won five straight non-division ACC contests and the motivation of becoming bowl eligible is the difference in this one. Georgia Tech has been favored only one time this year vs. a FBS opponent. 8* NC State

10* UCLA (8:00 ET): Since suffering a Friday night loss at USC back in September, Utah has looked like one of the best teams in the entire country. They've gone 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 25.6 points per game. But I'll call for that streak to end this week (at least the ATS one) as they play host to a UCLA team that has clearly improved in Chip Kelly's second year at Westwood. If you remember, I was on the USC upset of Utah. While the Utes arguably outplayed the Trojans that night, it was still a loss. Here, it's a lot of points to lay in what could be a flat spot.

UCLA has won three straight, all by double digits, and could actually move into a 1st place tie w/ the Utes were they to pull the outright upset Saturday night. Like Utah, they are coming off a bye. I actually think that favors the dog in this situation. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely here, the Bruins are definitely much better equipped to face the Utes than they've been in recent years. Their offense has run for 200+ yards in five straight games, so it will be interesting to see if Utah's top ranked run defense can slow that attack down. As dominant as Utah's winning streak looks, they actually trailed Washington by double digits two weeks ago and were still losing entering the 4th quarter.

UCLA has lost three in a row to Utah, the last two each coming by 31 points. I'm sure that will be on the minds of the coaching staff and players as they take the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Bowl eligibility is also hanging in the balance for the Bruins. To get there, they've still got to win two more games. They'll be favored to beat Cal in the regular season finale at home. But they'll still need to win either here or next week against rival USC. Bottom line is I expect a strong effort from the Bruins here. They have covered four of six games as an underdog this year, winning three of them outright. Three of the past five games, the Bruins' defense has allowed 20 points or less and the last game saw them hold Colorado to a season-low 14. Take the points. 10* UCLA

10* Air Force (7:00 ET): Air Force got an unexpected bye last week due to the tragic death of a New Mexico player. Originally, this week was set to conclude a brutal stretch of 10 games in 10 weeks for the Flyboys and be their sixth road trip during that time. So the bye, while coming under the worst of circumstances, probably couldn't have come at a better time. Colorado State is also off a bye, their second in four weeks. The surprising Rams have won three in a row and covered five of their last six, but they are not a team I happen to believe in. I'm going to lay the points.

After four straight 7-6 seasons under Mike Bobo, Colorado State fell to 3-9 SU last year. They expected improvement in Fort Collins this year, but things did not look good early w/ a 1-5 SU start that included a 21-point loss to a Colorado team that Air Force beat on the road. Despite winning their last three games, let's not lose sight of the fact CSU has won only one game all year in which it was an underdog. That was an upset of Fresno State three weeks ago. The Rams have still been outscored on the year and a defense which has not been able to stop the AFA triple option in the past still remains a liability. 

After going 5-7 SU each of the last two years, Air Force has also improved in 2019. Only they've looked a lot more impressive in doing so. They've won four straight to get to 7-2 and have outscored opponents by 77 points during the win streak. I've had my finger on the pulse, taking them as a short favorite against Utah State (won 31-7) and then fading them as 16-pt chalk against Army (only won 17-13). Colorado State is clearly a much more favorable matchup than Army as the Falcons have beaten the Rams 12 of the last 15 tries, including each of the last three years where they've averaged 430.3 yards rushing per game! As alluded to above, CSU's run defense still isn't any good as they've still allowed 183.7 YPG over land during their 3-game win streak. On the other side of the ledger, the AFA defense ranks 9th nationally at stopping the run (97 YPG allowed) and Colorado State lost its leading rusher to a suspension. 10* Air Force

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): QB Kelly Bryant is set to return this week and that changes the whole dynamic for a Tigers team that has lost three in a row. All three of those losses, including 27-0 to Georgia last week, have been on the road. Clearly, without Bryant last week, they could get nothing going against one of the nation's top defenses. But now they are back in Columbia where they are a perfect 5-0 SU this season and have won every game by double digits! I'm not ready to give up on this team as last week was actually the 1st time all year that they were getting points! 

Florida has admittedly looked impressive this year as they are 8-2 SU (only losses are to LSU & Georgia). Coming off their own loss to Georgia (24-17), the Gators bounced back in a major way last week by shutting out Vandy 56-0. That was a game where I had the Over and the Gators did all the work themselves in punching me a winning ticket. But they were only up 14-0 at halftime before exploding for 28-point 3Q that included a defensive TD. Coming into the year, I did NOT expect this Gators team to match LY's 10-win total. I think the final two regular season games are going to be tricky. Unless UGA loses its next two (unlikely), then the Gators have nothing to play for (can't win division). That makes them prime fade material in my opinion.

Bryant and the home field edge are both huge factors in handicapping this game, but there is even more evidence to support a play on the underdog this week. Missouri has beaten Florida the L2 years by a combined 50 points and has won four of the six games as SEC rivals. Also, the Tigers have the SEC's #1 pass defense (147.7 YPG allowed) and that's key going against one-dimensional Florida offense that can't really run the ball. With Bryant in at QB, this team was once 5-1 and ranked in the Top 25. Really, every Tigers loss this year (besides last week) is pretty head-scratching. Take the points. 8* Missouri

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): Kent State has only been bowling twice in program history w/ the last time being 2012 (other was 1972!). In order to snap that drought, this year's Golden Flashes (3-6 SU) are going to need to win out. That may seem like a tall mountain to climb, but looking at the schedule, it's actually doable. Up first is this Thursday night home game w/ Buffalo. At 5-4, the Bulls need just one more win to gain bowl eligibility and they've got the home finale vs. lowly Bowling Green in their back pocket. I'm not entirely sure why the line has shot up so much for this matchup and will take the points! 

You'll probably hear that Buffalo has "momentum" coming into this game, but regular readers know my feeling that "momentum" is a dirty word. The Bulls have won three straight and are off B2B 43-point efforts, but they benefited from five Central Michigan turnovers in one of them and had a gigantic quarter against Eastern Michigan in their last game. The other win came again 0-10 Akron. This will somewhat shockingly be the 4th time in MAC play that the Bulls are road favorites. But the Akron game was the only time laying more than 1.5. While they were able to get the job vs. Eastern Michigan 12 days ago, Buffalo lost outright at Miami. 

Kent State has only played three of its nine games here at home. They are averaging 34.7 PPG at Dix Stadium, which is well above their season average on the road (just 20.0 PPG!) The offense is led by dual threat QB Dustin Crum. Not only does Crum's 67.9 completion percentage rank among the top 15 in the country, he also leads the team in rushing. Leading receiver Isaiah McKoy missed the Toledo game, but is expected back here. While the Golden Flashes have lost three in a row, every loss was by 7 pts or less and those were to three of the top teams in the conference. With their bowl eligibility hanging in the balance, the Flashes won't go down quietly. 10* Kent State

8* Boise State (10:15 ET): Boise State is no stranger to occupying this space. The Broncos were last involved in a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection when I faded them three weeks ago at BYU. They lost that game outright, as 7-point favorites, 28-25. It's their only SU loss this season. This week, I'll be taking the Broncos and it has a lot to do with whom they are facing. Wyoming has been a previous target due to the fact they've been winning games while consistently being outplayed. The last time I got involved in a Wyoming game was four weeks ago w/ a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection on San Diego State. That's one of two games the Cowboys have lost this year.

The big story here is Wyoming lost its starting QB last week. Sean Chambers made his 1st start midway through last season and really turned the team around. Chambers went 10-2 SU as the starter, but is now done for the season after injuring his knee LW vs. Nevada. Backup Tyler Vander Waal was hardly effective in completing only 3 of 10 pass attempts. The Cowboys were lucky they didn't need Vander Waal to do much as they were already up 24-3 when he came into the game. Boise State knows all too well the importance of having your starting QB on the field. Hank Bachmeier missed that BYU game, but returned last week and led the Broncos' offense to a 52-point effort against San Jose State.

The Broncos' defense did give up 42 points and almost 500 total yards last week, but that was on the road. Wyoming, with a backup QB making his first career start, is not a threat. That this game is on the "Blue Turf" is very significant. Wyoming has been outgained by nearly 100 YPG on the road this year (outgained in all three games) and averages only 22.0 PPG. That was w/ Chambers at QB. Boise State is 12-1 all-time vs. Wyoming (lone loss was in Laramie) w/ the avg MOV being 24.4 PPG. The Broncos are 17-1 SU the L18 MWC home games. My numbers say this number would be too low even if Chambers was the starter for Wyoming! 8* Boise State

10* Missouri (7:00 ET): While Tigers QB Kelly Bryant remains a "game-time decision" here, this is a play regardless. Admittedly, Mizzou has been a very inconsistent team this year. They've suffered some real head-scratching losses this year, including the last 2 weeks at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. They also lost the season opener at Wyoming. But it is certainly worth mentioning that there was a time when this was considered a Top 20 team in the country. B2B losses have sent them tumbling and while they now have to face to #6 Georgia, this will actually be the 1st time all season that the Tigers have been underdogs! Take the points w/ a dangerous team. 

We certainly know that Georgia isn't immune to a shocking home loss. It was four weeks ago we faded them vs. South Carolina and they got beat 20-17 as 20.5-pt underdogs (in overtime). Since that time, they've bounced back to shutout Kentucky 21-0 and then last week win the big rivalry game over Florida (24-17). As mentioned earlier, that has the Dawgs ranked #6 in the initial CFP poll and pundits are back to talking about a path to the top four. Sounds like it could be an ideal time for another letdown. Not only is UGA coming off a win over Florida, but they have Auburn (a much bigger game) and Texas A&M on deck. This looks like the proverbial "sandwich spot" for the favorite.

I go back to something I talked about in the analysis for South Carolina-Georgia. UGA is a somewhat offensively challenged team. They've scored 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games. So it's problematic for them covering a spread this large. Not only has Missouri not been a dog previous to this, they'd actually been favored to win every game by least 9.5 points! The Tigers have the top pass defense in the entire SEC. It does sound like Bryant will play. While Missouri has only beaten Georgia once since becoming SEC rivals, they've covered five of the seven meetings, including the last four. So they have a history of playing the Dawgs tough. That continues Saturday. 10* Missouri

10* South Florida (8:00 ET): The home team has won all five meetings between these schools and there has been a history of upsets. The first three meetings saw an outright win by the home dog every time. The last two years, the home team entered favored. Last year it was USF going to Philly on a season-worst three-game losing streak and losing 27-17. But they covered as a 13-point dog thanks to taking a 17-0 lead going into halftime. The last time Temple came to Tampa is the ONLY time in the history of the series where the favorite covered. USF won 43-7 w/ a 408-85 edge in total yards. I bring all this up because Temple remains a shaky road team in 2019. While it probably won't get as ugly as it did two years ago here (also a Thurs night game!), take the Bulls.

Temple has pulled a few notable upsets this season. The Owls (+5.5) beating Maryland 20-17 back in Week 3 seemed impressive at the time, but the Terrapins have gone from chic to lousy. The Owls did beat Memphis 30-28 as 4-pt home dogs, but that was thanks to four Tigers' turnovers more than anything else. Temple was outgained in that game. Since then, they've been exposed w/ ugly losses to SMU (45-21) and UCF (63-21) w/ the defense giving up 600+ yards in both games. Temple's lone road win of the season came against East Carolina, by a score of 27-17, but they did not cover as 12-pt chalk. They are now 0-3 ATS in all road games.

USF has taken some lumps this year, but has battled back to win four of its last six overall. They had won five straight coming off a regular season bye before running into SMU earlier in this season. The Bulls will get a chance to play spoiler down the stretch w/ remaining games against Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF. Including this one, they'll have to win twice to become bowl eligible. USF has actually performed slightly better than Temple has on a per play basis this season and the Owls' shaky play on the road is cause for concern. The Owls have just ONE win this season by more than 3 pts against a FBS opponent. USF's defense is #1 in the AAC against the pass and they have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the COUNTRY. Temple has the 2nd most TO's in the conference this year. 10* South Florida

10* Ohio (8:00 ET): This Wednesday night matchup will go a long way in determining who wins the MAC East this year. It's a division Ohio won as recently as 2016, but they've haven't won a Conference Championship since 1968! Miami shares the same 3-1 SU record in MAC games this year and is now 19-7 SU their L26 conference games overall. This is a rivalry game ("Battle for the Bricks"), one that I personally am quite familiar with as Ohio U is my alma mater. But just to show how unbiased I am, last year I had Miami in their 30-28 upset (as 4-pt dogs) in Oxford (also a Wednesday game). But it's back to the alma mater in 2019 as I'll lay the points. 

Last year's upset snapped a string of five straight wins by OU in the "Battle for the Bricks." I thought it was a terrible spot for them as they were coming off a 59-14 win the week prior and totally overvalued. Miami also needed the game to remain bowl eligible. Jumping out to a 28-7 halftime lead proved to be the difference for the RedHawks as they could only manage a safety in the 2H. Note that Ohio HC Frank Solich (15th year here) is still 11-3 SU all-time vs. Miami and that includes six straight wins here in Athens. There will be no motivational issues this time for the Bobcats w/ the East Division hanging in the balance. They were the favorite to win the Division coming into the year. 

Ohio started slow this year, including a couple of close losses. But they've seemed to finally hit their stride and played their "best" game of the year two Saturdays ago when they went to Ball State and "upset" the favored Cardinals 34-21. They ran for 300+ yards in the outright win. While 0-4 ATS at Peden Stadium this season, the Bobcats have won 13 of 16 here straight up. Miami is off B2B upsets beating Northern Illinois at home and Kent State on the road. I had 'em in the former. But I can't see three upsets in a row. The win over Kent State was the Redhawks' first on the road. There is a huge edge for Ohio at the QB position w/ senior Nathan Rourke over Miami freshman Brett Gabbert. That alone could be the difference as the home team should win comfortably. 10* Ohio

10* Florida Atlantic (4:00 ET): This game feels very reminiscent of our September Game of the Month when we took FAU against Charlotte. The Owls were actually a slight dog heading into that contest (shocking in retrospect!), but prevailed 45-27 w/ 550+ yards of total offense. Five weeks later, they head to Western Kentucky to face a team that - like Charlotte - was not expected to finish near the top of the C-USA East Division standings. FAU was, so therefore I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Owls QB Chris Robison expects to start Saturday afternoon. Take the points.

These are two of the three teams that have just one conference loss in C-USA's East Division. Both lost to Marshall. Western Kentucky's loss to Marshall was last Saturday, 26-23, but they were 3.5-pt underdogs. So that makes it FIVE ATS wins in a row for the Hilltoppers. I think it's that streak that has them favored here, but note they were underdogs in three of those five games. WKU was -3 in TO's last week at Marshall, which proved costly. The Hilltoppers have been carried by a defense which has allowed just ONE 2nd half touchdown the L5 wks. But last week saw them surrender 401 yards and 26 points, the most in each category since a loss to Louisville on 9.14. FAU is arguably the best offensive team that WKU has faced all season.

Again, you would not have expected FAU to be an underdog in this game back at the start of the season. The Owls have won 5 of 6 since since an 0-2 start and really handled Old Dominion last week, winning 41-3. Robison has 208 yards passing in the first half, but didn't play in the second after being driven down hard into the turf. Note the Owls started 0-2 because they faced Ohio State and UCF. Believe it or not, the 24-point loss to Ohio State is tied for the closest any team has been to the Buckeyes all season. Robison has said he's preparing to start, so that's all we needed to know. FAU has beaten WKU both years under Lane Kiffin, winning 42-28 and 34-15. WKU has closed the gap a little in 2019, but still shouldn't be favored. We have the Owls 10 points better on a neutral field. 10* Florida Atlantic 

8* Army (3:30 ET): Over the last two seasons, Army achieved unprecedented heights for the program (at least in the "modern era"), winning 21 games under HC Jeff Monken. They even finished ranked (#19) in the final poll LY, which was their first time in the Top 25 since 1996! This year started auspiciously w/ a narrow win over Rice (who is still winless). But the following week saw the Black Knights nearly upset Michigan in "The Big House," the second year in a row they took a top 10 opponent into overtime (Oklahoma). So everything appeared OK. But October saw the Cadets seemingly marching "in reverse." They've lost four straight, the last three all coming as favorites. Now they're a big dog against Air Force. At 3-5 SU, if Army were to lose here, then they'd need to win out just to be bowl eligible. The situation screams "take the points" as these "Commander In Chief" games tend to be both close and low-scoring.

Air Force was a nice winner for us last Saturday. It was a late night game, hosting Utah State, and the Falcons rolled to a 31-7 victory as 3.5-pt chalk. They held USU to just 128 total yards, including just 14 rushing. The Flyboys are now 6-2 SU and have surpassed LY's win total. Five of the last six games, they've held the opposition below 100 rushing yards. That seems critical when facing Army. But let's look at the one opponent the Falcons failed to keep under 100 yards rushing during that stretch. It was Navy, who went for 214 in a 34-25 upset in Annapolis. That's obviously the most comparable offense to what the Falcons face this week. While Air Force may still be unbeaten at home, they do seem ripe for a letdown following three straight double digit victories. Army hasn't lost a game by more than 9 pts all year. 

As alluded to above, these C-in-C games always tend to be low-scoring. Usually, they are close as well. Army has beaten Air Force two straight years, something that had previously not happened since 1977-78. Last year was a 3-point win (17-14) in West Point. Over the last five seasons, no Army game against either Air Force or Navy has seen more than 43 total points scored. More than half have seen 31 total pts or less scored. That makes taking the points a "no brainer" here as Army is better suited for the underdog role anyway. 8* Army

8* Air Force (10:15 ET): Though Boise State lost last week, it was to a non-conference opponent (BYU). So that means Utah State is still in a first place tie w/ the Broncos atop the division, one half-game up on this week's opponent, Air Force. Of course, BYU over Boise State was last week's LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection, so it only seems appropriate that we'd be playing this matchup. We're taking Air Force as they've got the homefield advantage + the revenge angle after losing LY in Logan by a score of 42-32. The Flyboys are a team we were relatively high on coming into the year whereas USU figured to regress from LY's 11-2 SU campaign. Lay the short number. 

The AFA is 5-2 SU overall and coming off a 56-26 win over Hawaii, their 2nd straight win by double digits. The week prior, here in Colorado Springs, saw them beat Fresno State 43-24. So the offense is certainly "humming along" right now. Much of that is obviously due to the triple option as the Falcons have run for 340+ yards in B2B weeks. But they've also added a bit more of a passing element to their arsenal this season. Utah State, save for the 42-6 loss to LSU, has done a good job at stopping the run this year. But the big key here is that the Aggies are last in the country in time of possession. The defense figures to be on the field a LOT of the time Saturday night and is likely to wear down as the game progresses. 

The only MWC loss Air Force has suffered this was to Boise State, on the road. While they lost that game 30-19 as eight-point underdogs, they actually were dead even in total yardage (355-355) and were up late in the third quarter. The other loss was to Navy, which is always a tricky matchup. Utah State has lost two of its three road games so far and those two losses were the only games so far this season where they were underdogs. Three of their four wins have been in games where they were favored by three touchdowns or more. They are just 4-10 SU the L14 times being underdogs. The TOP element is going to be a big deal here and we look for the favorite to pull away late. 8* Air Force

8* Maryland (3:30 ET): What has gone wrong w/ Maryland? Once touted as an up-and-coming program, the Terrapins have seen their season go "sideways" w/ last week's 34-28 setback vs. Indiana being their 4th loss in the last 5 games (only win was against Rutgers). Of course, we backed the Terps in that lone win. We'll do it again this week as we remain highly skeptical of Minnesota despite its unbeaten record. The Golden Gophers are also off a convincing win over Rutgers, running their YTD record to 7-0 SU. But four of those wins have come by 7 points or less and it's not like they've played a ton of heavyweights. Too many points to pass up here as Maryland is an attractive underdog in this spot. Grab the number. 

It would be easy to pin Maryland's recent woes on the fact they were starting a backup QB. Tyrrell Pigrome went 0-2 in place of an injured Josh Jackson, who is expected to return here. Two late turnovers, one of them a Pigrome INT, cost Maryland dearly last week in College Park. That came not long after a fumble led to the eventual GW FG for Indiana. While on the surface, things may not look as if they are going too well for 1st year HC Mike Locksley right now, this is a team that was ranked in the Top 25 last month. Even w/ a backup QB, the Terps averaged nearly 400 YPG the L2 games. Not only is Jackson expected back this week, but so too is RB Anthony McFarland, who was also dealing w/ an ankle sprain. It certainly won't be easy for Minnesota to outscore Maryland by the amount the oddsmakers are calling for here.

The Golden Gophers may be ranked 17th in the country, but I'm not sure anyone believes there are only 16 teams better than this one. There's probably more than 25 teams that would be favored against them on a neutral field, including six from the Big 10! Maryland may not be one of them, but the Terrapins deserve more respect than this w/ their QB and RB both set to return. They have beaten Minnesota each of the last two years including as a 13-point dog here at TCF Bank Stadium two years ago. Last year, it was a 42-13 game at College Park and the Terps probably were a weaker team then. Look for Minnesota's 4-game ATS win streak to come to an end here as the 'dog should keep this one within single digits. 8* Maryland

8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): It's not like Kansas State is a bad team or incapable of pulling an upset. Just last week, here in Manhattan, the Wildcats beat TCU 24-17 as 4.5-point pups. They also went to Mississippi State earlier and the year and won outright. A couple losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor have lowered their profile somewhat, but we still don't think they should be catching this many points, even against mighty Oklahoma. The unbeaten Sooners are probably feeling pretty good about themselves coming off a 52-14 beatdown of West Virginia last Saturday. But prior to next week's open date, I can see a letdown taking place here. We've seen some unbeatens go down as big favorite the last couple Saturday's. So take the points here w/ a dog that should be giving its 'A effort'.

It would obviously take a 'Herculean effort' from Kansas State to pull the upset. But it's a chance for 1st year HC Chris Klieman to certainly put his imprint on this program. Klieman took over for a legend, that being Bill Snyder, and I think he's certainly done a good job here so far. That shouldn't be a shock considering the success he had at North Dakota State, which was one of the premier FCS teams every year during his tenure there. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely Saturday in Manhattan, the home dog can certainly stay within this generous number. Last week's upset of TCU brought the Wildcats' ATS record as a home dog to 16-8 the L11 seasons. It was a game they actually never trailed. 

The surprising thing about Oklahoma this year has been the play of the defense, which ranks 28th nationally in yards allowed. But that unit has lost LB Jon-Michael Terry for the year. The Sooners did outclass Texas in the RRR, but other than that haven't really played anybody of note. They've faced the three worst teams in the Big 12. So the fact they are racking up big margins of victory is not that shocking. A Kansas State defense that has allowed more than 26 pts just one time in 2019 should be OU's 2nd real "test" of the season. The Sooners are just 3-7 ATS following a SU win by 20+ points. Kansas State has upset Oklahoma twice in the past seven years and certainly is out to avenge last year's 37-point loss in Norman. 8* Kansas State

10* Miami FL (12:00 ET): "The U" probably didn't figure it would be getting this many points from Pitt in a late October clash. Then again, they probably didn't anticipate being 3-4 SU coming into this game either. But those are the realities heading into this Saturday at Heinz Field. Last week, the Hurricanes lost outright as 18.5-point favorites to Georgia Tech, a real embarrassment considering the Yellow Jackets had yet to cover a spread all season. You should look for the 'Canes to bounce back and play inspired ball this week, however. We remain unsold on Pitt, a team that is 5-0 ATS its last five games. With that ATS record, note the Panthers have only been favored twice and never by more than 4.5 points! The last four wins have been by a total of 14 points. Take the points. 

Despite being favored in all of the last six games, Miami is just 3-3 straight up. That's pretty shocking to see. Before losing to Ga Tech, the team's previous loss came to Virginia Tech. You may recall we backed them the following week and they pulled what could be called an upset over a ranked Virginia team (Miami was actually -3 in the game). One certainly has to hope that LW's loss will prove to the nadir of HC Manny Diaz's 1st year here in Coral Gables. It was an overtime loss where Miami had the potential GW field goal (just 25 yards!) blocked at the end of regulation. They also gave up a TD on a fake punt and had a fumble recovered in the end zone for another score. All four Miami losses this year have come by seven points or less. 

Pitt played Penn State tough and owns an outright win over UCF. They've also picked up a pair of ACC road wins the L2 weeks, beating Duke and Syracuse. But this is a team that was favored by only 4.5 over Ohio U here at home earlier this season. As alluded to above, last week's win at Syracuse marked just the second lined game all season in which the Panthers were the betting favorite. Last year, Miami crushed Pitt 24-3 as the Panthers had a spot in the ACC Championship Game already sewn up. We backed the Hurricanes that day and will do so again this year. Ironically, Miami's only loss to Pitt in the L4 years came in 2017 when they were ranked #2 in the country! While Pitt is 5-2 SU overall, they have a YTD point differential of +1. The Miami defense is allowing a fewer number of points per game. 10* Miami (FL)

10* Houston (7:30 ET): We lost two more unbeaten teams last week (Wisconsin, Boise State), dropping the number left nationally to 10. Among those 10 teams, SMU has to be considered one of the more surprising on the list. The Ponies have reached a level that the program has not seen since pre-"Death Penalty." This was not really expected from Sonny Dykes' team in 2019 in what should still be considered a pretty loaded West Division in the American. SMU was actually a slight dog at Arkansas State in Week 1. Since then, they've been an underdog only one other time (at TCU), yet this is the first time all season they truly feel "overvalued." 

Houston has essentially had the exact opposite season of SMU w/ numerous players electing to redshirt, leading to a very disappointing 3-4 SU record. Before the season started, it would have been considered highly unlikely that SMU would be favored in this game. Being favored by double digits would be almost inconceivable. Yet here we are. The Cougars' QB situation is something worth monitoring as Clayton Tune is expected to return and start. Tune has not been healthy since the Sept 28 vs. North Texas, which was his first start. Remember that Tune was only called into duty because D'Eriq King redshirted. UH should be a much different team w/ a healthy Tune back this week. 

SMU is now ranked #16 in the country and is the highest ranked "Group of 5" team. So they've got a target on their back now. The only game they've failed to cover was two weeks ago as a DD favorite vs. Tulsa. Off an impressive win LW over Temple w/ Memphis on deck, the Mustangs are in a prime lookahead situation against a team hungry for a win on the national stage. Two of Houston's losses have been by seven points and all four were to pretty good teams. SMU is good, but they aren't the 16th best team in the country by any means. We don't even consider them in the top 30. SMU was a 14-point dog when it faced Houston AT HOME last year. Now they are two TD favorites on the road. SMU pulled the outright upset LY too. Home team has won four straight and 7 of 8 in this Texas rivalry. This is the most points Houston has gotten at home in some time. 10* Houston

8* BYU (10:15 ET): Right now there are two teams in the top 20 we don't feel actually deserve to be there and they are Boise State and Arizona State. The latter is a DD dog this week at Utah, so obviously the oddsmakers have a similar view on the Sun Devils. But Boise State finds itself laying points in Provo, which isn't surprising, but does open up the opportunity for a "value pick" on BYU this week. Now the Cougars haven't been a good value each of the last three weeks, losing every game (SU and ATS) w/ the last two coming as favorites. They were actually road favorites the L2 games, so now they get to try the home dog role finally and it's one that should suit them quite well. Take the points. 

Boise State is one of 12 unbeatens we have left in College Football, so it's no surprise that they are ranked. They check in at #14 in the latest poll. For a frame of reference, we have them just outside the Top 25 in our own power rankings. Now you may recall us backing the Broncos back in Week 1 against Florida State. They won, as 6.5-pt underdogs, 36-31. But that win no longer looks as impressive (FSU just isn't that good) and they actually trailed 31-13 in the first half of that game. Since then, it's been nothing but cupcakes on the schedule. They are 5-1 ATS but a lot of the previous spreads seem low in retrospect (only -8 at home vs. Air Force?). QB Hank Bachmeier took a big hit last week against Hawaii and injured his hip. It was bad enough that he didn't play in the 2H and his status for this game is in question. That would obviously be a big loss for the Broncos. 

BYU is also dealing w/ an injury at the QB position. Jaren Hall suffered a concussion in LW's loss at USF. While concussions must be treated seriously, it seems like Hall is more likely to play than Bachmeier as the latter's injury being described as "not season ending" sounds serious. Neither side is expected to reveal who will start until close to kickoff. Nevertheless, we are on the dog here as BYU has definitely been unlucky the L2 wks (beyond the QB injury) as they outgained both Toledo and USF, only to lose both games. Both were one score games where the Cougars blew a 4th quarter lead. We'll take the points in this one as the home team is 7-2 SU all-time in this rivalry and LY saw BYU only lose by five on the blue turf (as a 13-pt dog). 8* BYU

10* Texas (7:00 ET): I can see people talking themselves into Kansas here as UT was just lost to Oklahoma in the RRR and now has to come back and lay three touchdowns. However, let's not get it twisted. This is a game the Longhorns should win big. The Horns were a little outclassed last week by OU, but we expected that and they still lost by only seven points. Their only other loss this year was also by seven, to LSU, so a pair of one-score losses to top five teams are their only blemishes. That's not bad. They remain a Top 20 team in the country while Kansas is still clearly at the bottom of the Big XII pecking order, despite having Les Miles as HC and a 24-point win over Boston College. Lay the points here. 

Texas should not have difficulty scoring points Saturday night in Austin as they are going up against a KU defense that ranks 103rd in efficiency. The Longhorns' offense is #12 in overall efficiency, led by QB Ehlinger, who has thrown for 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The game last week vs. Oklahoma was the 1st time all season Texas did NOT go over 400 total yards (only 310), but Kansas is giving up 444.5 YPG so far and that number gets even uglier when you factor out home games vs. Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. Coming off a conference loss, Texas has gone 5-2 ATS the last two seasons.

Kansas did shock a lot of people when it went to Chesnut Hill on a Friday night and beat Boston College by 24 points. But that performance remains an outlier on their resume. Since then the Jayhawks are 0-3, including a 37-point loss at TCU. They lost by 25 at home to Oklahoma, which was two weeks ago. Here they are coming off a bye, but also have a new OC as Les Koenning was fired after the OU game. Brent Dearmon is the replacement and he inherits an offense that is averaging (easily) a Big XII low 22 PPG. Any kind of letdown UT might normally suffer here is mitigated by the fact they'll be taking KU very seriously due to an 0-3 ATS head to head record the L3 years. That includes an outright loss in Lawrence in 2016. Kansas lost to Coastal Carolina, at home, 12-7. They had less than 160 total yds of offense in the TCU game. We have this spread at four touchdowns, not three. The Longhorns should win comfortably and cover w/ "room to spare." It was a 24-7 game last year before Kansas scored a couple "garbage time" touchdowns. So don't be fooled by that final margin. 10* Texas

8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): So we enter Saturday w/ 12 undefeated teams left in College Football. Obviously, by the end of the regular season there won't be nearly that many, if any, left. Of the 12 currently remaining, seven are firmly entrenched as top 10 teams (Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) while three others hail from the "Group of Five" (App State, Boise State, SMU), so they'll be facing "lighter" schedules. That leaves two outliers - Baylor and Minnesota. Few, if any, projected these teams to still be unbeaten by mid-October even though between the two they only have two upset victories, both as very small dogs. But they are the two "most likely" to lose between now and the end of the regular season. We'll call for Baylor's unbeaten run to end Saturday as they are slight underdogs at Oklahoma State. 

Both teams played Texas Tech their last time out. It was Baylor's turn last week and they needed 2 OT's to remain unbeaten, winning 33-30 as 10.5-point chalk. They needed a last second FG just to get into overtime. It was the Bears' third win this year by eight points or less, two of those coming in Big XII play (23-21 at home vs. Iowa St) and the other against a lousy Rice team. Tip your cap to the job Matt Rhule has done in Waco in just two seasons. His first ended with a 1-11 SU record as he inherited a total mess but then the team jumped to 7-6 last season. They're one win away from matching LY's win total. But Oklahoma State will be the toughest test they've had so far, especially w/ the game in Stillwater. Also, linebacker Clay Johnston is now done for the year (knee) and he led the defense in tackles by a wide margin.

Oklahoma State is off a bye, so the situation favors them tremendously w/ Baylor also coming off a tough 2OT game. Yes, the Cowboys did lose to Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that was in Lubbock and they turned the ball over five times. We don't consider the different head-to-head results these teams had vs. Texas Tech to be all that significant. What we do consider significant though is the fact this is just the 5th time since 2013 that a team that's 6-0 SU or better is an underdog to an unranked opponent. The previous three all lost (by at least a touchdown) and that includes a game we played LY w/ Houston against USF (won by 21). Furthermore, the Pokes are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS when unranked and favored against a Top 25 team the L10 years. This is revenge game for OSU as well as they lost 35-31 in Waco (as 6-pt chalk) last year. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): Mississippi State has fared very poorly its last two games, losing to Auburn and Tennessee by a combined 43 points. But both of those games were on the road. Now they are back in Starkville (where they are 13-4 SU/ATS L17) and not much is being expected as they are hosting #2 LSU. Mississippi State finds itself as the "meat" smack dab in the middle of a Florida-Auburn sandwich for LSU, who might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming off last week's 14-point win over the Gators in Baton Rouge. We don't think LSU is the #2 in the country, so they're a bit overrated right now as well. Take the points. 

Now there is no denying LSU has looked very impressive so far, especially on the offensive side of the ball w/ QB Joe Burrow. But this just reeks of being a flat spot in between two games against top 15 opponents, not to mention they have the showdown w/ Alabama after that. So this is the Tigers only game against a non-Top 15 opponent in five week's time. It's on the road where they've only had to go twice and one of those was Vanderbilt. The other was Texas, an impressive win, but it only came by seven points. LSU is 4-0-2 ATS on the season, so there's probably no better time than right now to fade as the public is in love w/ them. Florida actually had more first downs last week (28-22) and it was a one-score game the entire way before LSU put things away w/ a late TD. Early in the 3Q, LSU was down 28-21. 

Mississippi State has been favored in every game except Auburn this year, so at 3-3 SU they are clearly underachieving. Turnovers have been a problem for them as they've committed 10 in the L4 games, three of those being losses. The trip to Auburn was a disaster and then in an early kickoff (Noon ET) last week they fell behind Tennessee early. As a result, oddsmakers have jacked this price up several points higher than where we feel it should be at. LSU lost here two years ago, 37-7, and was slightly outgained in LY's meeting 260-239. The last four times Miss State has been a home dog, they are 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU w/ the only SU loss coming by 7 against Alabama (#1 at the time). Take the big number here. 8* Mississippi State

10* Miami OH (2:30 ET): Truth be told, the MAC is not very good this year. No team will challenge for the Group of Five spot in a New Year's Six bowl, so it's all down to conference pride at this point. Both Northern Illinois and Miami were not shy about taking on challenging non-conference schedules. NIU made three consecutive visits to Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, all P5 foes obviously and lost all three games. Meanwhile, Miami made unsuccessful visits to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. Both teams are 1-1 in MAC play and 2-4 SU overall. But one thing they don't have in common in last week's results. Northern Illinois went to Ohio and pulled the upset, coming from behind to win 39-36 as 4.5-pt dogs. Miami lost at Western Michigan in a misleading 38-16 final. We still have the RedHawks rated as the slightly better team, so it makes sense to take them here as a home dog. 

Northern Illinois was down 11 pts at halftime last week in Athens (even w/ a blocked punt returned for a TD) and appeared headed for what would have been a fifth consecutive loss. But the Huskies quickly got back in the game w/ two scoring drives in the 3Q and were actually ahead 29-21 halfway through the 4Q. But it took a FG as time expired to pull out the outright win. It should be noted NIU's only other win this year was against a FCS team (Illinois St) back in Week 1. Winning on the conference road B2B weeks is not easy to do, but that's what NIU is looking at here. Last year, coming off a big home win over Toledo (38-15 as 3-pt chalk), the Huskies would face Miami in DeKalb and lost 13-7 as seven-point favorites. They are just 4-9 ATS off their previous 13 MAC wins. 

Miami is a very solid 17-7 SU/ATS its last 24 conference games. Despite going 6-6 (SU) overall last year, they were not invited to a bowl. So they'll need a strong finish to guarantee a postseason game this year. Last week's loss to Western Michigan was misleading in the sense that they actually outgained the Broncos despite losing by 22. It was a 21-16 game early in the 4Q despite a pick-six having gone against them. Miami has three "easy" games remaining (Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron) that they should win, but they'll need another just to be bowl eligible. This is their best shot seeing as the other two games will be on the road. They are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off the L6 conference losses and should get going offensively against a team giving up 33.2 PPG to FBS opponents. 10* Miami OH

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): We've played against Syracuse two times this season w/ very differing results. The first will likely end up as our easiest winner of the year as we went w/ Maryland, a pick 'em, and they beat the 'Cuse 63-20. A week after the Orange had been squeezed by Clemson (lost 41-6), we faded them again, this time as a short favorite here in the Carrier Dome. The opponent was Western Michigan, but the Cuse won 52-33, a game that was much closer than that score. Dino Babers' team is now 3-3 SU overall, losing all three times it has been a dog. They're a HOME dog Friday night vs. Pitt and this looks like a good spot to jump on board. Take the points. 

Pitt is 4-2 SU, but has actually been favored in one game vs. a FBS opponent. So Pat Narduzzi has his team overachieving w/ upsets of UCF and Duke. They also played Penn State tough, in Happy Valley, losing by just a TD. But they also only beat Delaware by three (17-14) at home. So good luck figuring this team out the rest of the way. Key to the close call vs. Delaware was the fact QB Kenny Pickett did not play (hurt his shoulder vs. UCF). Also, six other starters sat out that game. The Panthers came in at "full strength" for their last game against Duke and took a 26-3 lead early in the 2H. But they proceeded to blow all of that 23-point advantage and needed a last minute FG to secure the 33-30 win as 3-pt underdogs. Six Duke turnovers were crucial to the Panthers winning as well. 

Pitt's offense has certainly struggled at times. They've topped 20 points just two times. That won't be enough to win a second ACC road game in as many weeks, let alone cover. The Panthers have had 13 days off since beating Duke while Syracuse lost last Thursday to NC State. The Orange offense took awhile to get going last week, but was up against a good defense. This is the fourth home game in five weeks for Syracuse, so that counteracts the extra time Pitt has had to prepare. At 0-2 in ACC play (Pitt is 1-1), the Orange are going to come out desperate in what is a revenge game for them after losing 44-37 in overtime at Heinz Field last year. 10* Syracuse

8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Wyoming is about as fraudulent as any 4-1 team in the country right now as they've trailed by double digits in four of five games (including three wins) and have been outgained by an average of nearly 50 yards per game. Their only convincing effort came two weeks ago against a rapidly failing UNLV regime. Even w/ the benefit of a bye, we don't see the Cowboys duplicating that kind of effort Saturday night at San Diego State, who is also 4-1. While having the same record as Wyoming, SDSU happens to be outgaining its opponents by an average of about 50 YPG. They have a great defense and are at home, so we'll lay the short number in this one. 

When this College Football season is over, we may look back at Wyoming's upset of Missouri in Week 1 as the most shocking result of 2019. The Cowboys were outgained in that game by 148 yards, but fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. Wins over Texas State and Idaho weren't impressive either as the Pokes were outgained in both of those games (Idaho is a FCS team now) and again trailed by DD in the first half both times. The following week, they trailed Tulsa by DD in the 2H, but a late rally was able to sneak them under the number (+3.5) in a 24-21 loss. Again they were outgained. Then came the UNLV game where the Cowboys did look good, but again the opponent will more than likely have a new coach next year. Wyoming has yet to lose the TO battle in any game this year, so that's another area where they've been fortunate. 

San Diego State won its turnover battle (+4) last week in a 24-10 win over Colorado State. Often, we might call that a lucky win then, but not with this Aztecs' defense. SDSU has allowed fewer than 330 yds in all four of its wins this season. Their only loss came at home to Utah State, a game they fell in an early 20-3 hole due to a pick-six. Even then, they fought back and lost by only six points (23-17). That's the last time they played at home and after tonight, they won't be at home again until November 9th! So that should be a motivating factor. Somehow, the Aztecs are 0 for their last 8 ATS as home favorites. Look for that streak to end here as the defense has not given up more than 16 points in any game this year (excludes pick-six vs. Utah State). 8* San Diego State

8* Nebraska (7:30 ET): While Nebraska is dealing w/ an injury at the QB position, the genesis of this play is that we simply do not think Minnesota is very good. We certainly have the Golden Gophers as the weakest of the 14 remaining unbeatens. For the sake of comparison, we don't even have Minnesota rated among the Top 50 in our power rankings. All but three of the 14 unbeaten teams are inside our top 35. That includes the top eight. So once again, we see not all records are created equal. In the case of the Gophers, they've got four wins by seven points or less. So they've been extremely fortunate so far. Nebraska would have killed for such good fortune last season when it suffered an amazing five losses by five points or less. We smell a reversal of fortune Saturday night in this Big 10 matchup. Take the points. 

Minnesota turned in - by far - its most complete performance last week. They beat Illinois 40-17, led by Rodney Smith's career-high 211 yards rushing. When all was said and done, the Gophers finished w/ 332 yds on the ground. Nebraska's run defense has basically been the opposite of "stout" in Big 10 play so far, but they still are allowing only 4.0 YPC. They gave up 157 yds rushing last week vs. Northwestern, but that was on 41 attempts. Also, Minnesota had failed to run for even 100 yds on the ground in its previous two games and had not exceeded 150 in any game before facing Illinois. Let's not forget that the Gophers needed a late TD just to beat South Dakota State in the opener. The Fresno State game went to double overtime and then it was a TD in the final minute to beat Georgia Southern. Despite Purdue losing both its starting QB and top WR on the same play (!) in the 1Q, they were still able to stay within seven of the Gophers two weeks ago. 

The "elements" are expected to be a factor Saturday night at TCF Bank Stadium where temperatures are expected to be the coldest for any kickoff in the history of the stadium. Both teams are saying the right things and that they'll be ready. Still, this very well could end up being a low-scoring game where points are at a premium. (Like Nebraska's 13-10 win over N'western last week). That makes having the underdog feel like the right call. The other storyline for this game is the Cornhuskers' QB situation. Adrian Martinez did travel, but it's unclear if he'll be starting due to a knee injury suffered last week. Noah Vedral, a transfer from UCF (came w/ HC Scott Frost), would start if Martinez can't go. Vedral led the drive that ended w/ the GW FG vs. N'western last week. Last year in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers destroyed the Gophers 53-28 for their 1st win under Frost. 8* Nebraska

8* Kentucky (7:30 ET): UK has lost its last three games, all in the SEC. Not that we didn't expect the Wildcats to regress this year, but they suffered only three defeats ALL of last season en route to their best record since 1977! Two of the three losses this year have come on the road and in the last one (24-7 @ South Carolina), QB Sawyer Smith was clearly not himself (went 11 of 32 for just 90 yards!). It was later revealed that Smith came into the game banged up (shoulder). So the open date certainly came at an opportune time for Kentucky and now they come out of it w/ a favorable spot against an Arkansas team that may be the worst in the conference. We'll lay the points in this matchup as the Wildcats are due for a win and a big one at that. 

Arkansas also has three losses, though only two of them came in SEC play. The third was a terrible misfire against San Jose State as three-touchdown favorites in Fayatteville. The Razorbacks defense has been routinely shredded this year and will be a big step down from UK has faced so far in conference play. You do have to hand it to the Hogs as they were surprisingly competitive in a 31-27 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago. They easily covered as 23.5-point underdogs, but that also was at a neutral setting (Cowboys Stadium). In the last 10 "true" road games, Arkansas has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS, including a two touchdown loss at Ole Miss on September 7th, their only "true" roadie of the year so far.

Being in different division in an expanded conference, these schools are not common opponents. They last met in 2012. Arkansas has not visited Lexington since 2008! While the perception that the West is the stronger of the two SEC divisions is absolutely true, don't tell that to the Razorbacks, who are just 3-9 SU vs. the East since 2013 w/ five consecutive losses. Their last cross-division win came in 2016 against Florida and that was at home. The last road win over a SEC East foe was 2015 at Tennessee. It's been almost a full month since the last time Kentucky played at home and that game saw them lead (still) unbeaten Florida into the 4Q. It was a 1-pt game into the final minute and the main reason UK lost at all was four turnovers. We project this to be a double-digit win. 8* Kentucky

8* North Texas (7:00 ET): North Texas is a team that came into 2019 w/ aspirations of winning C-USA's West Division. After all, it was something they'd accomplished just two short years ago w/ 7-1 SU record in conference play. Their only regular season loss was to eventual champ FAU, who beat them again in the Title Game. The Mean Green didn't win the division LY, but still went 9-4 SU overall in what was considered another successful season. But this year's squad has disappointed thus far, most recently w/ an embarrassing 46-25 loss two weeks ago to a Houston team that had just seen a number of its best players redshirt. The loss was at home too! It was the Mean Green's third loss overall and second by 20 or more. Coming out of a bye, we're expecting better this week as they visit Hattiesburg to play Southern Miss. Take the points in a game North Texas probably did not expect to be an underdog. 

Southern Miss is also coming off a bye here. The Golden Eagles are 3-2 w/ mostly predictable results. They were blown out in two games vs. SEC teams (Miss State, Alabama) but easily handled the two bottom-feeders on the schedule (Alcorn State, UTEP). The only game they've been involved in that was expected to be competitive was at Troy and USM won a shootout, 47-42, as three-point underdogs. The Golden Eagles also had aspirations of winning the division this year, so this shapes up to be a key game. They've been the more "consistent" team (compared to North Texas), but just so happen to have pulled an upset while North Texas suffered the outright loss to Houston as 7.5-pt chalk. 

North Texas has beaten Southern Miss three straight years, including two upsets. Last year was a 30-7 beatdown in Denton despite 300+ yds passing from USM QB Jack Abraham. Something to note from that loss to Houston is that North Texas finished w/ a 456-359 edge in total yds. They got shell-shocked early, falling into an early 14-0 hole. After fighting their way back into the game, Houston would use TWO special teams TD's to pull away for good. Looking at North Texas' other losses, one was by only six points at Cal, whom they also outgained. Losing by 22 is never good, but the 49-27 loss to SMU may not be as bad as originally thought given the Mustangs are still undefeated. The Mean Green have underachieved a little, but it's not too late to turn things around. They have a QB in Mason Fine that has more passing yards than any active QB in FBS! 8* North Texas 

10* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State seems to have "turned a corner" in recent weeks. They went out to Arkansas and delivered a shocking 31-24 upset as 20.5-point underdogs. Then last week, they were favored by a TD, something we haven't seen in a long time from them in forever - at least in conference play. The Spartans handled their business, beating New Mexico 32-21 as they used a fast start and six Lobos' turnovers to fuel their third straight ATS victory. Now they head to Nevada to face a Wolf Pack team licking its wounds after suffering a humiliating 54-3 defeat here in Reno, at the hands of Hawaii, two weeks ago. That's a result we remember quite well as we had Hawaii. We'll fade them again here as our numbers indicate SJSU is the better team on the field. 

Obviously, having had a week off, there's going to be an expectation that Nevada will be "motivated" to atone for what could be the most embarrassing loss in recent program history. Absolutely nothing went right against Hawaii, a game in which the Wolf Pack were outgained 512-203 and were -3 in turnovers. Coming out of the bye motivated sounds logical and nice, but what if the team simply isn't that good? As stated in our Hawaii-Nevada analysis, we were already pretty wary of a team that miraculously beat Purdue, lost to Oregon 77-6 and only beat FCS Weber State by six (19-13). Even a 37-21 win over lowly UTEP saw the Wolf Pack tied (21-21) in the 3Q. Then there is the QB situation as HC Jay Norvell has elected to start Malik Henry this week. Henry has never started a FBS game before. 

A first time starter going against a San Jose State defense that has 11 interceptions seems like a mismatch. It also might be that San Jose State is the more motivated side coming into this game. They've lost 9 of 10 to Nevada in a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1899! But they were close to winning last year and easily covered as 14-point underdogs. It was a two-point game in the 4Q. SJSU is a much better team this year having already tripled LY's win total. They've NEVER won a MWC road game in 2+ seasons under HC Brent Brennan, so again, we don't see Nevada necessarily being the more "motivated" side this week. Spartans QB Jose Love, now a senior, threw for over 400 yards against New Mexico and is completing nearly 62% of his pass attempts this year w/ only one interception. SJSU is 7-2 ATS the L9 times the line has been three points or less. 10* San Jose State

10* South Carolina (12:00 ET): For years, these two SEC East school would seemingly trade wins in what was a pretty even rivalry. But like 99% of the country, South Carolina is no longer at the same level as Georgia, who has become one of the elite programs in all of college football. UGA has now beaten South Carolina four years in a row w/ LY's 41-17 win being the most lopsided win in Columbia since 1971 and their most points EVER scored there. But even though the Dawgs are #3 in the country and have dominated the rivalry recently, not all history is against South Carolina this week. From 2010-2014, they upset Georgia three times. And then two years ago here in Athens, they easily covered a spread similar to this one in what was mostly a competitive game. We're going to take the points here, noting the Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS their L10 tries as underdogs as well as 11-5 ATS their L16 road games. 

South Carolina is off a bye here. That's helpful, especially for freshman QB Ryan Hilinski, who has been dealing w/ an elbow injury and had to miss the team's last game against Kentucky. But despite his absence, the Gamecocks still won the game easily, 24-7 as 3.5-pt home favorites. The defense was 2:32 away from a shutout when it allowed a meaningless TD. Hillinski is now back and should have some confidence, having already thrown for 324 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama in what was just his 2nd career start. Remember that Hilinksi wasn't even supposed to be the starter this year, but senior Jake Bentley broke his foot in the opener vs. North Carolina. That was a game South Carolina led 20-9 going into the 4Q. Even with a 3rd string QB, they dominated Kentucky two weeks ago, finishing w/ a 387-212 edge in total yds. So this team is probably better than you think.

When betting an underdog like this, you hope for a game where the favorite plays it conservative and at a slow pace. Enter Georgia, who plays at one of the slowest paces in all of College Football. The Bulldogs like to run the ball a lot and are quite successful at it, but South Carolina's defense is pretty effective at stopping it as well, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. So don't look for Georgia to have much opportunity to "open the game up." The Dawgs trailed late in the 1H LW @ Tennessee before taking over in the second half. They won't be able to do that here against a better team. After beating Notre Dame and Tennessee, this might be a "flat spot" for the favorite. 10* South Carolina

10* Miami FL (8:00 ET): This is the classic "unranked team favored over a Top 25 opponent" where the oddsmakers are blatantly tipping their hand, but the public rarely picks up on it. The reality is that there are 8-10 teams every year considerably better than the rest of the country. But after that, there isn't much difference between #11 and #35. Once you get out of the Top 15, the difference often gets really minimal, especially after factoring in homefield advantage. Virginia is a team that finds itself ranked #20 right now, but they barely crack our top 40. Miami is actually ahead of them in our power rankings, so we'll gladly lay the short number here for this Friday night matchup. Traditionally, when an unranked team is favored over a Top 25 opponent, they cover. 

It was just two Saturdays ago that we made clear our view of this Virginia team. They were #18 and taking on a Notre Dame team that was ranked 10th. Despite the relative "closeness" of the rankings, the Fighting Irish were giving double digits. We laid it. It was a little lucky, but Notre Dame got the cover thanks in large part to five UVA turnovers and won 35-20. It was the Cavaliers' third straight ATS loss. They'd been outgained in wins over Florida State and Old Dominion, gaining only 244 total yds against the latter. I'm just not much of a believer in Bronco Mendenhall's team. From a historical perspective, Friday games have not been kind to Virginia. They've lost 10 of the last 12. Also, no player on the current roster has ever won two straight ACC road games. Back in Week 1, the Cavs won 30-14 at Pitt. The last year where the program had multiple ACC road wins was 2011.

Miami is just 2-3 SU. Outside of a 63-0 beatdown over FCS Bethune-Cookman, "The U" has hardly looked good. But all three of those losses have been by seven points, one of them to a Top 10 team (Florida). We've still got faith in the team. HC Manny Diaz, who was the DC last year under Mark Richt, has announced he'll be taking more of a "hands on" role on the defensive side of the ball this week. On offense, N'Kosi Perry will start at QB in place of the injured Jarren Williams. Fine by us as Perry was the one who very nearly led an improbable comeback against Virginia Tech last week. Williams threw three 1Q INT's as the 'Canes dug themselves an early 28-0 hole. Perry came in and threw for a career-high 422 yards & 4 TD's. Miami still lost 35-28 even w/ a 563-337 total yardage edge. They just couldn't overcome a -5 TO margin. They won't be digging themselves that kind of hole again and we look for them to win a "statement" game. 10* Miami FL

10* Texas State (9:15 ET): Texas State hasn't had much luck beating LA Monroe (lost to them three straight years), but it's a new season and the game is in San Marcos Thursday night. The Bobcats didn't have a prayer of winning either of their two road games this year (at Texas A&M and SMU), but they've played relatively well at home.  They actually come into this game on a two-game win streak, having beaten Georgia State 37-34 and FCS Nicholls State 24-3. The home record easily could be 3-0 as they outgained Wyoming 444-293, but lost a DD lead thanks to three turnovers. Look for the Bobcats to likely snap that three-year losing streak Thursday as we'll take the points. 

LA Monroe also comes in at 2-3. Like Texas State, they won their first Sun Belt Game (30-17 over South Alabama) and their only other win was against a FCS team (Grambling). But the Warhawks are 0-3 ATS the L3 games as they were -14.5 vs. South Alabama and have been blown out twice. After only losing by a single point at Florida State in Week 2, 45-44, there appeared to be some promise here. But we still remember what happened in Monroe's last road game as we made the unfortunate decision of taking them plus the +19. They lost 72-20 at Iowa State then two Saturdays ago they were blown out again, this time 52-33 at home by Memphis. 

Something that's a little interesting here is that these teams came into the year as two of the three most experienced teams in the entire country! This is a huge game in both team's hopes for improving and the bottom line is we feel the better team is the one getting points. While LA Monroe has already traveled to face two P5 teams, the fact that their defense has given up 45+ points three times is not encouraging. The Warhawks are already 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, leaving them at 3-7 ATS their L10 as chalk. The win over Georgia State snapped a stunning 12-game losing streak in conference home games for Texas State. They are hungry to now make it two wins in a row! The Bobcats have covered 5 of 7 against teams with losing records. 10* Texas State

8* Louisiana (8:00 ET): This is a battle of unbeatens, though of a different kind. Appalachian State is unbeaten in the "classic sense," in that they're 4-0 straight up, one of 16 teams left in the country w/o a SU loss. Meanwhile, Louisiana is the ONLY team left in the country that's unbeaten at the betting window as they come in at 5-0 ATS. We're proud to say that we were on this Ragin Cajun team a few weeks ago and while this Sun Belt rivalry has not gone well for them in year's past (0-6 all-time vs. Appalachian State), we're going to call for things to be different this time around. Go w/ the home team! 

It was three Saturdays ago when we backed Louisiana as a three-point dog at Ohio. They went in and beat Frank Solich's Bobcats 45-25, which is a very impressive win. Ohio had previously won 10 in a row at home before the Ragin Cajuns came to Athens. We should have followed up that big win w/ another play on Louisiana, but were a little "gun-shy" about laying points as they were playing on the road for a second straight week and facing a rested opponent. But despite a less than favorable situation, the Ragin Cajuns still managed to go in and beat Georgia State 37-24. In retrospect, we should have listened to the numbers. Our numbers again indicate they are being undervalued in this matchup and we will listen this time. 

What makes Louisiana so difficult to defend is that they have a three-headed rushing attack. Ragas, Mitchell and Calais have combined for over 1200 yards already and 17 touchdowns. All three are averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry. For the season, the Ragin Cajuns are averaging an incredible 314 yds rushing per game. Appalachian State's run defense isn't terrible, but they still allow 165 YPG and have given up 36.3 PPG the L3 weeks. The only team to beat Louisiana this year was Mississippi State. This is a huge revenge game for Louisiana as they lost twice to the Mountaineers last season, by 10 in the regular season and then by 11 in the SBC Championship Game. But both those games were played in Boone and were more even then the final scores indicate. This time, Louisiana gets App State at home and gets the job done. 8* Louisiana

10* Stanford (10:30 ET): Things may not be looking so hot down on "The Farm" right now, but we like the number we're getting w/ the Cardinal this week in a "Pac 12 After Dark" special vs. Washington. Despite starting their backup QB last week, Stanford scored a season-high 31 pts last week. Granted, it was against Oregon State, but I'll still call it an "encouraging" sign as it came on the road. Davis Mills will get the nod under center again this week (as K.J. Costello is still injured), but this time it's at home. Washington is the better team, but Stanford is still a "tough out" here in Palo Alto, regardless of what happened two weeks ago vs. Oregon. Also note that this number is about a full TD higher than the Oregon game, even though we have the Ducks rated higher than the Huskies. Take the points. 

Despite losing to Oregon 21-6, the Stanford defense allowed just 320 total yds in that contest. They've allowed an average of just 14 points and 265 yards at home so far w/ both games coming against P5 opposition. It's been a tough schedule thus far for Stanford w/ three games coming against teams we have ranked in the Top 25 (UCF, USC, Oregon). They did jump out to a 21-0 lead LW vs. Oregon State before needing a last second FG for the 31-28 win. The Cardinal are 45-9 SU at home under HC David Shaw and have had UW's number through the years, taking 10 of the last 14 meetings including the L5 at home - by an average of 18.4 PPG. Those were some better Stanford teams in that mix, but it's also very rare to get a number like this on them at home under Shaw. 

This will be the second week in a row Washington gets to face a backup QB as LW they were up against USC's third-stringer and won by two touchdowns (28-14). That was at home, however, and total yardage was basically dead even. Shaw is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog at Stanford including an upset of the Huskies two years ago. There has been only one time under Shaw that Stanford has gotten more points than it has here and that was against Oregon in 2012 when they pulled an outright upset. Before that, the last time they were a home dog of 15 pts or more was the infamous upset of USC under Jim Harbaugh (2007). This is a straight value play as our numbers indicate the spread should be 9.5. Look for the Cardinal defense to keep them in this one.  10* Stanford

8* Texas (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a good spot for the 11th ranked Longhorns as they are just 2-7 ATS their L9 tries as a conference favorite and have Oklahoma on deck (a spot in which they've failed to cover six of the last seven years). However, they are coming off a bye and facing a team that is nowhere near as good as its 3-1 SU record would seem to indicate. West Virginia has struggled to beat the likes of James Madison and Kansas, needing late scores and turnovers to get by both. And even though they did pull an upset over NC State, the Mountaineers are still just 2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS in the underdog role the L3 seasons. We feel Texas should be immune to the RRR lookahead this year and have its way w/ a subpar WVU team. Lay the points.

Homefield advantage hasn't mattered the last three times these teams have met. The road team has won all three, including WVU 42-41 in Austin last season. The fact that the revenge angle is in play here is yet another reason to override Texas' history in this situation. We're also willing to look past the injuries in the Longhorns' secondary due to the fact WVU is last in the Big 12 in offense and has really struggled to get the ball down the field. On the flip side, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has looked great so far. He has 15 TD passes and just one interception while throwing for 309 YPG. The Longhorns have scored at least 36 points in every game and gone over 500 yards in each of the last three. 

West Virginia is a 3-1 team in name only as we have them rated as the second worst team in the Big 12. Last week, they were a little lucky to beat the worst team in the conference (Kansas) as they were outgained, but wound up +2 in turnovers. Even more damning is that in the season opener, they were outgained by FCS James Madison (WVU didn't even gain 300 yards!) and were tied going into the 4Q (ended up +3 in TO's). Yes, there was the upset of 44-27 of NC State here in Morgantown two weeks ago. But the week before that, the Mountaineers got slaughtered 38-7 by a Missouri team we have rated slightly below Texas in our own power rankings. The Longhorns are simply the much better team here and should win big. 8* Texas

10* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This may sound crazy (not to mention uncharacteristic!), but we're going to lay what is easily the biggest number on the board Saturday w/ Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish treated us well last week, finishing strong to get the cover as DD chalk against Virginia in what was a Top 25 matchup. But if you read our analysis, you know we "scoffed" at the notion of the Cavaliers being a Top 25 team. Things played out the way we expected as the Irish ended up winning 35-20 thanks to a superb defensive effort in the second half (shut UVA out). While we may not regard Virginia as being a Top 25 team, they're still certainly a competent opponent. The same cannot be said for this week's Notre Dame opponent, Bowling Green, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country right now.

We learned our lesson w/ BG early as we made the mistake of taking them in Week 2 against Kansas State. They were getting 24.5 points in that contest, but that hardly mattered as they ended up losing 52-0. It's been all downhill since w/ last week's 62-20 loss to Kent State marking a new low for the program. The Falcons defense permitted 375 yards - both rushing and passing - for a total of 750 allowed. This was against a team that is a 35-point underdog this week (granted, against Wisconsin) and was coming off a 39-point loss. We've still got Kent State rated as one of the bottom 20 teams in the country, but that might as well be the top 10 compared to Bowling Green, who is in our bottom three. This is about as one-sided a matchup as you'll see all season. 

Notre Dame's defense forced five turnovers and allowed just four rushing yards last week against Virginia. Unless they simply don't care this week, it is difficult to see how Bowling Green is going to move the ball in this game. Obviously, Notre Dame still needs to score a lot of points to cover though. But remember they dropped 66 in a win over New Mexico here in South Bend back in Week 2. They can easily score a similar number here, given BG just allowed 62 points and 750 total yards to a bad MAC team last week. Notre Dame just gone done facing two very good defenses - Georgia and Virginia - so expect QB Ian Book to have a performance similar to that New Mexico game where he threw for 360 yards and five touchdowns. Yes, this spread is not high enough! 10* Notre Dame

8* Maryland (12:00 ET): The bloom has definitely fallen off the rose in College Park where just three weeks ago Maryland fans believed their team was set to compete w/ the heavyweights of the Big 10. But two bad losses later and the Terrapins are scrambling. First they were upset on the road by Temple, losing 20-17 as 5.5-point chalk. Then came last Friday's embarrassment at the hands of Penn State, 59-0, in a home game where seating was expanded to accommodate what was a turnaway crowd. It's definitely now hard to rectify what we've seen in the last two games compared to the first two, but fortunately for Maryland they are drawing the perfect opponent for a "get well" game this week, that being Rutgers, whose issues run far deeper. Lay the points. 

Rutgers has played two Big 10 games so far and been outscored 82-0! Last week's 52-0 loss at the hands of Michigan cost both HC Chris Ash and OC John McNulty their jobs. It's tough to defend Ash as he won just eight games in three-plus seasons here and was 3-26 in conference play (all three wins coming in 2017). But the decision to fire him seemed to be hastily made and certainly puts interim Nunzio Campanile in a really tough spot. Campanile not only is taking over the head coaching job, but the play calling as well. This is someone who was a high school coach just 18 months ago and a tight ends coach as recently as last week! Not only have the Scarlet Knights been shutout in both Big 10 games so far, they've gained just 277 yards TOTAL! Tough spot. 

On paper, laying double digits on the road w/ a team that just lost 59-0 doesn't read well. But this spot seems tailor-made for a Maryland blowout. Beating up on bad teams is what's going to get them bowl eligible and you have to remember they were ranked in the Top 25 three weeks ago. They scored 142 points in wins over Howard and Syracuse, the latter we were on. Rutgers lost 17 games by 20+ points under Ash and don't figure to get much better anytime soon. After having the run game stifled last week, Maryland should be able to run wild in this game against a defense that is giving up nearly 200 rush yards per contest. Last year, the Terps beat Rutgers by 27. You wouldn't know it judging by the L2 games, but this year's squad is better under 1st year coach Mike Locksley. They'll be eager to rebound after being embarrassed on national TV last week while Rutgers is a program in shambles right now. 8* Maryland

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): Interesting scenario here. We've already laid one big number w/ Wisconsin against a MAC team (Central Michigan) and that wound up being a 61-0 win. We've also previously laid a big number against this Kent State team (-36 w/ Auburn) and that ended up being a 55-16 win. With Wisconsin every bit as good as Auburn and Kent State every bit as bad as Central Michigan, this number makes sense. What doesn't is that it's started to trickle down a bit. Kent State is just 1-18 SU its last 19 games vs. current Big 10 teams and it should be noted the one win came against Rutgers, who was in the Big East at the time. The 18 losses have been by an average of over 30 PPG. Wisconsin is very much for real this year. Lay the big number. 

Coming off a very impressive beatdown of Michigan, it was going to be next to impossible for Wisconsin to come out w/ the same intensity against Northwestern last weekend here in Camp Randall. While they failed to cover the 24.5-point spread, they nevertheless did win 24-15, a game where the defense allowed just over 3.0 yards per play. The fact they were slightly outgained by N'western is misleading in the sense they ran 22 fewer plays. The offense will obviously have to play a lot better this week and should against a Kent State defense that was gashed for 467 yards on the ground by Auburn two weeks ago. In case you forgot, the Badgers have RB Jonathan Taylor, who has rushed for 100+ yards in nine consecutive games. That's the longest active streak in the country entering Saturday. 

Conversely, Kent State is going to struggle to move the ball in this game. Yes, the Golden Flashes did just go for 62 points and a school-record 750 yards last week. But that was against one of the worst teams in the entire country, Bowling Green, who is a 46.5-point underdog this week. Now the Flashes face the #1 ranked defense in the country that is giving up just 7.3 points and 192.3 yards per game. The Badgers defense has actually scored nearly as many TD's (3) as it has allowed (4). Opponents are converting just 15.5% on third-downs against Wisconsin, the lowest percentage in the nation. Needless to say, it is going to be a rude return to Madison for Kent State HC Sean Lewis, who was a QB and TE here over a decade ago. 8* Wisconsin

10* South Alabama (7:30 ET): I guess I can understand why South Alabama is a double digit dog here. After all, every time they've faced a FBS opponent this year, they've lost by at least 13 pts. (Their only win was 37-14 over Jackson State). The Jaguars have also lost five straight years to Georgia Southern, failing to cover the spread in all five games. All five were decided by at least 15 points. Why should you expect anything different Thursday night? Well, Georgia Southern has also yet to beat a FBS opponent this year! They aren't exactly "favorite material" (if you know what I mean), especially when it comes to laying double digits on the road. Take the points here. 

Georgia Southern certainly failed to impress me last Saturday as they lost 37-24 at home to Louisiana. We've come away impressed w/ Louisiana in the past, but they were playing on the road for a second straight week while Georgia Southern was off a bye. It's a spot you'd expect the Eagles to play better in. Instead, it was a game they never led (despite being +2 in TO's) and got outgained 440-252. The only team the Eagles have beaten this year is Maine and that was by just eight points (26-18) at home. Their other two losses were against Power 5 opponents (LSU, Minnesota) on the road. After winning 10 games a year ago, Ga Southern definitely was a candidate to regress in 2019, but it appears said regression could be more severe than anticipated. 

South Alabama may represent a steep drop in class from a P5 opponent, but we still see them being a "tough out" in this spot, despite the poor history w/ Ga Southern. The Jaguars have taken their lumps so far this year, but they did cover against Nebraska (lost by only 14 in Lincoln) and then last week at La Monroe. It was a 7-pt game LW heading into the 4Q and USA actaully had a 24-18 edge in first downs over ULM. After playing three of the first five games on the road, including B2B weeks, the Jaguars should be pretty motivated for a Thursday night home game on ESPNU. They are 7-2 ATS the L9 times they've been off B2B losses. There was just one time LY where Ga Southern was favored by more than this on the road and we faded them in the spot. They were facing a bad Texas State team and only won the game 15-13. Same thing here. 10* South Alabama

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): We've got Hawaii rated as the better team here, so don't be surprised when they go to Reno this week and win. The Rainbow Warriors already won big for us once this year, on the very first day of the season, when they hosted Arizona and won that game outright 45-38 (as 10-pt dogs). They've since gone 2-1 despite a schedule that included two more Pac 12 teams (beat Oregon State). A 52-20 loss at Washington (still a very good team) was really not as bad as the final score looks. Despite not scoring on any of their first six possessions and turning it over three times, the Warriors were only down 18 entering the 4Q. Last week was a chance to get back on track as they routed FCS Central Arkansas. We'll take the points here.

Meanwhile, Nevada got one over on us last week as they outlasted UTEP 37-21 as 14-point favorites. In the analysis, we conceded UTEP wasn't much of a team, but were willing to grab the points against what we viewed as an overvalued favorite w/ an injury at the QB position. Sure enough, the game was tied 21-21 in the 3Q. The Wolf Pack did not seize the lead for good until there was a little over 16 minutes left of game time. Remember that this is a team that also has suffered a rout at the hands of a Pac 12 opponent (Oregon). Only Nevada lost 77-6 in a very non-competitive effort. There is that season-opening upset of Purdue, but as detailed last week that was a very phony (and lucky) victory. The Wolf Pack's only other win this year was by six over a FCS team, Weber State.

QB Carson Strong is expected back this week for Nevada, but we still view Hawaii as the superior side. Now each of the last two years has seen the Wolf Pack pull an upset, including 40-22 LY in Honolulu. But the Warriors should be motivated by that double revenge angle and the fact they've lost 10 straight games in the state of Nevada (0-5 vs. both UNLV and Nevada). The weather factor (expected to be cold) is probably overrated. Remember Nevada needed to be +5 in turnovers to beat Purdue 34-31 as they were outgained in the game by 115 yards and down 17 in the second half. After three straight TD drives LW, Hawaii was up 28-0 before some turnovers allowed their opponent to hang around. Their QB (Cole McDonald) is the better signal caller here. 8* Hawaii 

8* UNLV (8:00 ET): Rebels HC Tony Sanchez may be coaching for his job at this point as UNLV has started 1-2 w/ its only win coming against a FCS team (Southern Utah) in the season opener. Sanchez, who was a popular hire due to his success coaching high school in the Las Vegas area, has not been able to get this program off the ground. He's had four losing seasons and a fifth could mean he's heading back to high school. But a bye week may have come at the right time for Sanchez as he's had extra time to prepare for a shaky favorite, Wyoming, who is among the most overrated 3-win teams in the entire country. Take the points. 

\We called Wyoming the MOST overrated 3-0 team in the country last week as they went to Tulsa. Things were looking good w/ the Cowboys (+3.5) down 17-7 entering the 4Q. But two shocking TD drives later, they were unbelievably up 21-17 and looking like they might overcome a double-digit deficit for a 4th week in a row. Thankfully, Tulsa did end up scoring a TD and won 24-21. But we should have known better than to lay a -3.5. But now the Pokes are favored and that's more to our liking. Again, this team has been outgained in every game this season and is -98.7 YPG overall! That's worse than UNLV, who is -38.7 YPG! Wyoming still does rate better than UNLV, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are calling for here. 

The last time these Mt West rivals met, it was quite the memorable game w/ UNLV winning 69-66 in 3 OT's back in 2016. The underdog has pulled an outright upset in both meetings during the Sanchez era. The Rebels are 15-7 ATS as road dogs under Sanchez and have covered four of the previous five times they have been getting between 3.5 and 10 points. The bye week allowed for QB Armani Rogers to get healthy and the team is 10-3 ATS when he starts and finishes a game. RB Charles Williams is 2nd in the country in rush yds per game. Wyoming's QB Sean Chambers is completing just 38% of his pass attempts and operating behind a suspect line. With UNLV's next three games against Boise St, Vanderbilt and Fresno State, Sanchez desperately needs a win here or he risks losing his job. Not saying he gets it, but the Rebels will cover. 8* UNLV

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Miss State played w/o starting QB Tommy Stevens last week, but there was no dropoff w/ backup Garrett Shrader coming in and completing 17 of his 22 pass attempts. That was good enough to earn SEC Freshman of the Week honors as the Bulldogs beat Kentucky 28-13. We had the Under in that game, a winner in its own right, as the defense had just as much to do w/ the win as Shrader did. The status of the Miss State QB situation is somewhat in question going into this game w/ #7 Auburn, but that's okay as "defense travels" and we like MSU as an underdog. Take the points.

Auburn is one of three teams that's started 4-0 ATS. It's probably not coincidental that we're also playing against one of the other two in this 3-game report, that being SMU. Like SMU, the Tigers are off a big upset on the road last week as they went to Texas A&M and demonstrated they were the better football team, winning 28-20 as 4-pt dogs. The game wasn't really that close though as Auburn never trailed and was up 21-3 going into the 4th quarter. They did end up getting outgained though as A&M had three long scoring drives in the 4Q.  That was the first big "true" road win for QB Bo Nix as the Tigers now have beaten both Oregon & Texas A&M away from home (Oregon was a neutral site). But let's see how they do in a pretty clear letdown spot, laying more than one score, with a road game at Florida (#9) on deck. 

It's surprising how few times Auburn has been a home favorite of -7.5 to -10 through the years. But they failed to cover 9 of the last 11 times in the role. No matter who has been the QB, Miss State doesn't get beat big often, unless they are facing Alabama. The Bulldogs did lose to Kansas State earlier in the year, by 7, in Starkville. But Kansas State was probably underrated coming into the year. That was the game starting QB Tommy Stevens got hurt and the difference in the game wound up being a 4Q kick return for a TD by Kansas State. Miss State had the total yards edge in that game. Remember that Auburn easily could have lost the opener to Oregon as they never led until the final 10 seconds. Miss State won this game a year ago, 23-9. They are being undervalued in what is a "sandwich" spot for Auburn. 8* Mississippi State 

8* South Florida (4:00 ET): If you're a regular client, then you may remember how we routinely faded USF down the stretch last year. The Bulls had actually started the year 7-0, but we called them the most overrated team in the country at the time and made our mark by cashing numerous tickets at their expense. They finished the season at 7-6 w/ all six losses coming by double digits against bowl teams. That losing skid bled into this year as the Bulls lost their first two games (Wisconsin, at Georgia Tech) before finally winning two weeks ago, here in Tampa, against South Carolina State. It was the program's first victory in nearly 11 months! 

Now we're not saying that SMU is as overrated as USF was at this time last year. But the Ponies are in a tricky spot here. Last week saw them go to TCU and come away w/ a 41-38 upset. Not only did they snap a record seven-game losing streak to the Horned Frogs, but it was also the program's first win against a ranked Power 5 opponent since 1986! They were 7.5-point underdogs. Now they have to turn around and lay points on the road, against a rested opponent. The Mustangs are one of three teams in the country to start 4-0 ATS, so they've clearly been undervalued in the early going. Again, we're not saying they are anywhere near as overrated as USF was last year. But in the power ratings, they are the weakest 4-0 SU team in the country right now. 

Led by QB Shane Buechele, this would be SMU's first 4-0 start since 1984, the "heyday" of the program and before it got the infamous "Death Penalty." A transfer from Texas, it's not shocking to see Buechele thriving in Sonny Dykes' offense as his receiving corps here is actually comparable to what they have right now in Austin! But USF has given SMU fits in the past, taking the previous three meetings including a 24-pt win the last time here in Tampa. SMU may have been able to snap a losing skid against one opponent last week, but that was as an underdog. Both road wins this year have been by 7 pts or less and they're 0-2 ATS as road chalk under Dykes. USF made a QB change for the South Carolina State game w/ redshirt frosh Jordan McCloud replacing senior Blake Barnett. McCloud accounted for five TDs in the win and has now had an extra week of practice. Don't be surprised if USF surprises here. 8* South Florida

10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): Unless I'm missing something here, this line is an eye-opener. Last week Clemson HC Dabo Swinney did his best to hype the Charlotte program, but the 52-10 result there tells us that was probably nothing more than "coach-speak." Sure, the 49ers are scoring more this year, averaging 47 PPG against non-Clemson foes. But that includes games vs. Gardner-Webb (FCS) and UMass (who is the worst FBS team in the country). FAU is a team we had bouncing back in 2019 and after taking their lumps the first two games (against Ohio State & UCF), Lane Kiffin's Owls have put up 40+ points in B2B wins. This is a big revenge game for FAU, who lost as 17-pt home favorites to Charlotte in LY's regular season finale (costing them bowl eligibility). Obviously, the line is a LOT more favorable this time around. 

The road team has actually won all four meetings between these teams. Last year, it was Charlotte kicking a 56 yard FG as time expired for the 27-24 upset. FAU led that game 21-10 at the half and would go on to outgain the 49ers by 112 yards. If losing that game doesn't have the Owls motivated here, then I'm not sure what to say about Kiffin. Two years ago, he came to FAU and engineered a massive turnaround, leading the team to 11 wins. There was a predictable dropoff LY, perhaps more severe than expected, but 2019 should see the Owls return to the top of the C-USA East Division. Meanwhile, Charlotte was picked for last. Yet, look at this line! Doesn't make much sense to me. 

Charlotte's offense might be "improved," but the defense remains really bad, especially at stopping the run. This is interesting b/c LY the 49ers were Top 10 IN THE COUNTRY against the run, allowing just 105 YPG. But FAU still ran for 187 yards against them. That was w/ Devin Singletary (graduated), but he accounted for less than half the total in LY's game. FAU's run game has dipped w/o Singletary, but they should be able to get on track here against a Charlotte defense allowing over 200 YPG over land. Keep in mind that FAU's YTD rushing total is still severely hampered from facing Ohio State. QB Chris Robison delivered B2B 300+ yd passing games in wins over Ball State and Wagner. Prior to two weeks ago vs. UMass, Charlotte had been favored over a FBS opponent only ONCE in their history! Now look at this line. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This looks to be the rare time where the public has cooled on the Fighting Irish as they are off yet another loss to a Top 5 opponent, that being Georgia last week. But the Irish certainly played better than they usually do in that spot, losing by only six to a team that is certainly among the four best in the entire country. The idea of a "moral victory" is probably offensive to those in South Bend, but this remains a Top 10 team in the country. But after most of the nation watched them lose such a high-profile game, they aren't going to want to lay double digits w/ them against a fellow ranked foe. Our recommendation is to do it. There is a huge gap between Notre Dame and Virginia, even larger than what the oddsmakers are saying here. 

Virginia is 4-0 and ranked #18 in the country. However, they may be among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. We don't even have them in our Top 35, let alone the Top 20. Tip your cap to the job done by Bronco Mendenhall here in Charlottesville, but his Cavaliers simply aren't ready to compete w/ a team like Notre Dame quite yet. The Hoos were quite lucky to escape w/ wins against Florida State and Old Dominion the L2 weeks and those games were at home. ODU actually outgained them as Virginia had only 244 yds total. A lot of people were fading them in that spot and for good reason. We faded them vs. Florida State and that looked like it was going to be an outright upset before the Seminoles gave the game away (still covered). 

Notre Dame has a top 10 defense in terms of efficiency, thus you should look for UVA to struggle again moving the football. Consider that the Cavaliers failed to score until there were only 7 mins left in the 1H vs. Old Dominion. One of their three second half TD's came from the defense.  Notre Dame, led by QB Ian Book, also has the edge offensively in this game as it was just two weeks ago they put up 66 points here at home. Yes, that was against New Mexico. But the bottom line is that Virginia is very average both offensively and on special teams. The Irish won't need to score a ton here, but will score enough to win by at least two touchdowns. The only teams they've lost to since the start of last season are: Clemson and Georgia. 8* Notre Dame 

8* Arizona State (10:30 ET): Cal may be 4-0, but I have a hard time believing this is the 15th best team in the country (as they have been labeled by the AP). In my own personal power ratings, I have the Bears outside the Top 40! Yes, they do have two "true" road wins against Washington and Ole Miss, the former of which is a legit top 20 team. But Ole Miss is a team we faded back in Week 1 (at Memphis) and haven't really been impressed w/ ever since. Still, the Rebels offense put up 500+ yards on the heralded Cal defense (after putting up just 173 in the loss to Memphis!) and the Bears needed a goal line stand at the end of the game to preserve a 28-20 win. Cal's resume now includes three wins by eight points or less (including North Texas, who outgained them) and a 2 TD win over a FCS school (Cal Davis). Not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here as Arizona State has already gone to Michigan State this year and won outright. Take the points. 

The key to Cal's resurgence over the last two years has been their defense, which can claim one of the best secondaries in the entire country. But that defense was shredded last week by Ole Miss and the offense in Berkeley remains a huge liability. While they put up 433 total yds last week at Ole Miss, a lot of that came on big passing plays in situations that weren't all too favorable. Somehow QB Chase Garber was able to go 12 of 17 for 245 yds passing on plays where the offense was either 2nd & 7 (or longer), 3rd & 4 (or longer) or 4th down. Let's see him do that again. (Hint: we don't think he'll be able to). Last year, a more experienced Cal offense (10 starters back) could only manage 21.5 PPG. This year's Cal offense returned only four starters. They've yet to score more than 28 pts in any game. 

Arizona State's defense isn't too shabby either. The Sun Devils had allowed just seven points in each of the first three games en route to a 3-0 start. But they then wound up losing the Pac 12 opener to Colorado 34-31, a game which was pretty even throughout. As I said earlier, the Sun Devils already hold a win in East Lansing. So losing at home to Colorado didn't make much sense, other than it was a "letdown" spot. Herm Edwards has done a much better job in Tempe than most expected and will have his team ready to go here. Including the win over Michigan State, Edwards is now 4-1 ATS as a road dog (the only loss coming LY, ironically to Colorado). He's beaten Michigan State twice now. 8* Arizona State

8* UTEP (8:00 ET): We won't try and sell you on UTEP being a good team because they are not. But the Miners are off a bye week and getting a good number of points, at home, against an overrated Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games, so the thought of them laying 2 TD's on the road seems far fetched to us. It is an opening night upset of Purdue, 34-31 as 11-pt home dogs, that has the contingent from Reno overvalued here. The reason they won that game was they were +5 in turnovers, which offset them being outgained by 115 yds in that contest. Since then, the Wolf Pack were "put in their place" with a 77-6 loss to Oregon, then could only beat FCS Weber State by a score of 19-13 last week. Take the points here. 

Nevada trailed Purdue 24-7 at the half and were down 31-14 halfway through the third quarter. The fact they came back and won that game was a minor miracle. They scored 10 pts in the final minute, including a 56-yard FG w/ no time remaining by a walk-on kicker. Had that comeback not taken place, we'd be looking at a 1-2 team whose only win would be by six points over a FCS opponent. If that were the case, this line probably looks a lot different. The Wolfpack have been a road favorite just twice under HC Jay Norvell (third year here in Reno), both times LY, and they are 0-2 ATS including an outright loss to a terrible San Jose State team. So there is real hope for UTEP here. 

Now here's the ugly part. UTEP has lost 24 of its last 26 games. The two wins were this year's season opener (vs. FCS Houston Baptist - by two points) and last year against Rice (who we currently rate as the worst team in the FBS). But the good news is we don't need the Miners to win, only cover. Being off a bye is good. Coming into the year, we did think this would be an improved team as they were better last year than their 1-11 SU record showed. This is a spread that belongs in the single digits as Nevada has lost 10 of its last 13 road games.  8* UTEP

10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): Wyoming is 3-0 (straight up), but it would be a grave mistake to think those in Laramie should make holiday plans revolving around a New Year's Six Bowl game. Of all the teams still unbeaten across the country, the Cowboys are likely the weakest. That's largely confirmed by the fact they are getting points from 1-2 Tulsa this week. Now, the Golden Hurricane fought valiantly against Oklahoma State last week. They were up 21-20 at the half and would have covered (+14) had it not been for a late TD. We were on them in that spot, a tough loss for sure, but they get it back here against a different (and much weaker) group of Cowboys. Lay the points. 

Just to reiterate what's already been said about Wyoming's "phony" record, they are 3-0 but have been outgained in all three games. They've had close calls each of the last two weeks against Texas State and Idaho, neither of whom are any good. The Texas State game is one of just two times the Cowboys have won a non-conference roadie under HC Craig Bohl in 10 tries. They did so despite being -151 in total yards and -11 in first downs (lucky!). Interestingly enough, the Pokes were favored in that game (-7.5) and their only other non-conf road win under Bohl (LY vs. New Mexico State). Last week's home victory over FCS Idaho was even tighter (21-16) as Wyoming again overcame an early double-digit deficit and being outgained for the game. 

Tulsa has already played Michigan State and Oklahoma State, so they aren't likely to be intimidated by an opponent w/ an unbeaten record. Wyoming has actually won seven straight dating back to LY, but it's time for that to end this week. A big problem the Cowboys have is a passing attack which has averaged just 82 yards passing per game w/ a 39.1 completion percentage! Tulsa's rushing numbers are skewed due to how many sacks they gave up in the Michigan State game. The offense has moved the ball pretty well since that time and hasn't turned it over. The Golden Hurricane also have the better defense in this matchup (36th in efficiency). Add it up and you've got what should be an easy win for the home team. 10* Tulsa

8* Louisiana (2:00 ET): Sometimes if it's "too good to be true," it often is. Case in point, Ohio U returns to Athens this weekend, reeling, as they are off B2B road losses to Pitt and Marshall. They are laying just a short number at home and one might think this is a good landing spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats to bounce back. But we feel Louisiana is the better team in this matchup as the Ragin Cajuns come in feeling pretty good about themselves following B2B wins where they put up 593 and 748 (!) total yards of offense. Ohio's offense isn't performing up to expectations thus far and this very well could turn into a third consecutive loss for them. Take the points! 

Ohio was beaten far worse than 20-10 final score showed against Pitt. They barely gained 200 yards in the 20-10 loss and then followed that up w/ a poor defensive effort LW against Marshall where they gave up over 500 total yards. The offense was better there, but this still has to be considered a disappointing start considering QB Nathan Rourke is back. But there were just three other starters back from LY's record-setting offense in Athens. Granted, the Bobcats were underdogs in both losses, but we have our concerns w/ them being favored here as the defense has struggled to stop opponents through the air and on the ground. The Louisiana offense ranks 4th nationally in first downs. 

Ohio is also on a three-game losing streak to Sun Belt teams, including two bowl losses. Louisiana played for the SBC Championship last year and should exploit the Bobcats' suspect rush defense. The Ragin Cajuns have gone over 400+ yards rushing each of the last two weeks, admittedly against weaker competition, but Ohio also just allowed 300+ yds on the ground to Marshall last week. Louisiana returned its top three rushers from LY, so it's no surprise they have found so much success on the ground this year. This team hung tough against Mississippi State in the season opener, losing by only 10 points despite five turnovers and even ran for 164 yds against what was one of the top defenses in the country last year. 8* Louisiana

8* UL Monroe (12:00 ET): Both teams are coming off one-point losses here. However, the situation is not entirely identical. UL Monroe has had a week off to recover from its 45-44 overtime loss at Florida State. Iowa State, who had its bye two weeks ago, now needs to find a way to quickly recover from losing to Iowa last Saturday. That's going to be tough to do, given the nature of the defeat and the fact it was the fifth straight time they lost to their in-state rival. Laying a big number in this spot makes the Cyclones an attractive fade too as UL Monroe has already proven it can hang w/ a P5 opponent. Take the points. 

Iowa State has to be demoralized about losing to Iowa. Not just because they had an extra week to prepare, but also the manner in which they lost. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 yards, but two turnovers proved costly, especially the second one which was a muffed punt in the final two minutes. That came after the offense had turned the ball over on downs in Iowa territory its previous drive. Scoring only 17 points on a Hawkeyes' defense that was very beat up in the secondary has to be very disappointing as well. Keep in mind the Cyclones needed OT to get by Northern Iowa, a FCS team, in their opening game. I feel that this is an overrated team, ripe for the picking right now. They've failed to cover five of the last six times they were favored here in Ames, all five ATS losses coming as DD favorites. 

UL Monroe has to like the spot that they are in as they had no problems covering a similar spread against Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles have their issues right now, but the Warhawks led them in the 4th quarter. They lost b/c of a missed extra point in OT. Kicking issue aside, this is one of the most experienced teams in the entire country and they've previously beaten six P5 opponents. Offensively, they are led by QB Evans and RB Johnson, the latter of which went for 126 yards on 26 carries vs. FSU. The UL Monroe rush defense is an area of concern, but fortunately for them ISU has struggled to run the ball effectively so far (just 91 yds vs. Iowa) as they badly miss David Montgomery, who is now in the NFL. 8* UL Monroe 

8* Western Michigan (12:00 ET): Really tough spot for Syracuse here as they are off a deflating 41-6 loss to Clemson last week where they were thoroughly outclassed just as they were by Maryland the week prior in a 63-20 loss. The defense was torched for a combined 1,262 yards in the two losses, which is certainly NOT what you want to see out of a favorite in any situation. While favored at the Carrier Dome this week, the Orange will be up against yet another opponent that is superior on the offensive side of the ball and you should expect WMU QB Jon Wassink to have a big day here. Syracuse is nothing close to the team they fielded last year as losing QB Dungy (school's all-time passing leader) is something they are still trying to overcome. Take the points. 

Dungy's replacement is Tommy DeVito, who has not played well to this point. DeVito is bottom 20 nationally in QBR and has more interceptions (4) than TD passes (3). Of course, DeVito's play is largely irrelevant when the Orange defense has played so poorly. They allowed a frightening 8.6 yards per play LW vs. Clemson. Obviously, the Tigers are as good as it gets, but Western Michigan is going to be able to move the ball here as well. Last year, the Broncos hung 42 points (in a losing effort) on the 'Cuse defense in the season opener at Kalamazoo. I'm sure they haven't forgotten and the fact this is a revenge game makes the spot even sweeter for the underdog. 

The Broncos put 57 points and nearly 700 total yards on the board last week vs. Georgia State, so that's even more evidence that they should score plenty here. The week prior saw them stymied at Michigan State, but that's as good a defense as they'll see all year. Wassink is in his third year as the starter here and is 13-1 SU vs. non-P5 teams. That record obviously doesn't apply here vs. an ACC opponent, but it's still worth mentioning. Wassink is also Top 10 in the country in QBR right now. With Syracuse now 1-6 ATS following a SU loss, the underdog is the play here (plus the points) as WMU can absolutely take this game outright. 8* Western Michigan

10* USC (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals already have a common opponent and that's BYU. Each team had to go to Provo and both were listed as a 5-point favorite. Utah won their game, 30-12, while USC lost outright 30-27. So the Utes should be the obvious call here, right? (Especially seeing as we had them in the win over BYU). "Not so fast, my friend!" An interesting tidbit from those games is that the two teams averaged a near identical number of yards per play (5.75 vs. 5.72). Southern Cal may have lost, but did so in overtime. They also led in the 4th quarter, but ultimately could not overcome a -3 turnover differential. (Note: Utah was +3 in TO's in its game vs. BYU). With the home team having covered seven of eight matchups since Utah became a Pac 12 member, we'll take the points w/ the Trojans.

With Southern Cal having lost QB J.T. Daniels to a season-ending ACL injury (in the 1st game), one would naturally think Utah has the edge offensively coming into this one. I'm not so sure that's the case. Even with QB Huntley and RB Moss returning, the Utes aren't likely to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis as they play at a very slow pace. USC has found a replacement for Daniels in freshman Kedon Slovis, who completed 28 of 33 pass attempts for 377 yards in the 45-20 win over Stanford, which was the last time the Trojans played at the Coliseum. Slovis wasn't quite as effective last week in his first career road start, but still completed 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Don't think Utah will simply be able to "outscore" USC in this one. 

I mentioned earlier that the home team is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. That also includes six straight wins by an average of 9 PPG. Our numbers actually indicate USC should be slightly favored here, even though Utah has covered the last three matchups, including a one-point loss here in LA two years ago. But the Utes have not won straight up at the Coliseum since 1916! Trojans HC Clay Helton has not been good as underdog in the past and his seat will only get warmer were his team to lose again this week. He's got road games at Washington and Notre Dame on deck, so expect an "all hands on deck" approach to this Friday night home game. 10* USC

8* Florida State (7:30 ET): It's "put up or shut up" time for Willie Taggart and Florida State. The Seminoles were supposed to be improved in 2019 after going 5-7 SU LY, their 1st losing season since 1976! But so far, there hasn't been much sign of that. It started w/ an outright loss to Boise State in Week 1, a spot where we faded the 'Noles as the circumstances surrounding that game (date/time change due to Hurricane Dorian) made it seem like a real "leap of faith" (at least in our eyes) that they should be laying so many points. Still, even though we were on Boise State, we were stunned to see them shut out FSU in the 2H and come back from a DD deficit. It almost went from bad to worse LW against LA Monroe, but the 'Noles were able to escape with a 45-44 OT win. 

Virginia now seems to be the trendy pick to win the ACC Coastal (FSU is in the Atlantic w/ Clemson), which seems wide open now w/ Miami off to an 0-2 start. The Cavaliers won 8 games LY, their most in a season since 2011. They've already won conference game, opening the year by beating Pitt on the road, 30-14 (were 2.5-pt chalk). It was an even easier time LW w/ FCS William & Mary as the Hoos prevailed 52-17. Yet it sure is odd to see Virginia favored over Florida State. It's been decades since that was the case. Remember LY they were favored at Va Tech (who they still haven't beaten in 15 years) and lost the game outright. 

Maybe there is a changing of the landscape in the ACC, but it's tough to ignore the fact Florida State is 14-3 SU its L17 meetings vs. Virginia w/ all but one of the wins coming by double digits. The average margin of victory has been 24.6 PPG. While the pressure is definitely on Taggart in Tallahassee, the Seminoles have led their two games 31-19 and 24-7 at the half. Now they're underdogs for the 1st time. There won't be any kind of second half letdown this time and we're taking the points. 8* Florida State

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): Kent State is going to be very bad this year. You may already guessed or even know that, but it is essential to this play. The bottom of the MAC just isn't ready to be competitive on a national platform such as this. We saw an example of that last week with our play on Wisconsin, who annihilated Central Michigan 61-0. Well, Auburn is probably every bit as good as Wisconsin and even though both games saw them fail to score enough points to even cover this spread, look for this to be the Tigers' coming out party. Lay the big number.

Ironically, Kent State's QB Woody Barrett is an Auburn transfer. Perhaps it will be nice for Barrett to see some of his former teammates, but once the game gets going he may very well regret his decision to change sides. The Golden Flashes have yet to do much offensively as they put up only 200 total yards in the season-opening 30-7 loss to Arizona State. But losing that game was to be expected as they were 24-pt road dogs. Ironically, in victory last week, they may have been even less impressive. They needed OT to get by FCS Kennesaw State 26-23. Kent was only a 4.5-pt favorite in the game, which says a lot about the state of the program, and needed a late FG just to force OT. They were outgained by 100 yards (-7 FD's) and Kennesaw State is hardly a top tier FCS school.

The jump in class here is about as steep as it gets for the Golden Flashes. Auburn had the "miracle" win to start the year over Oregon and then a less than stellar showing last week vs. Tulane. They will be looking for that proverbial "pound of flesh" and Kent State happens to be an ideal candidate. The Flashes are 0-14 SU all-time vs. the SEC, losing by an average of 37 PPG. They have allowed an average of 211 rush yards the first two games, which means this is the spot where the Auburn offense finally gets going. They can name the score here as they get ready for the SEC gauntlet. 8* Auburn 

10* Iowa (4:00 ET): I know that Iowa State is at home, off a bye and hasn't beaten Iowa in five years. But they're going to have to wait at least another year in Ames to hold the "coveted" Cy-Hawk Trophy. We were on Iowa in this matchup last year and they came through w/ an "ugly" 13-3 win in Iowa City. They're better in 2019 while you can't say the same for Iowa State. Look for no further than the Cyclones nearly losing the opener two weeks ago to FCS Northern Iowa, needing triple overtime to get by 29-26 as 20.5-point favorites. Now they take on the premier program in the state. Lay the points. 

Iowa is 2-0 w/ wins over Miami OH (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). I thought last week's Big 10 opener couldn't have gone much better. What promises to be a good defense held the Scarlet Knights to just 125 total yards and two of the last three years they've held ISU to just a field goal. Remember that for LY's game, Iowa State was also off a bye, an unexpected one, as their season opener vs. South Dakota State had been cancelled. The Hawkeyes have won nine straight non-conference games, going 6-3 ATS in the process. They are also 17-2 SU their L19 games as a favorite, going 12-6-1 ATS. That includes 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS on the road. Perhaps the best news for Iowa coming into this year's matchup though is how their number of yards per play on offense is up significantly - from 5.44 to 6.27. 

I've seen a lot of people talk about how Iowa will struggle to run the ball in this game. Well, how about the other side of that equation? Iowa State ran for only 25 yards on 19 carries in LY's game and that was w/ David Montgomery as RB. Montgomery is now off to the NFL and Iowa's defense has allowed just 143 yards rushing - total - in its two games. While ISU's win over Northern Iowa was their seventh in a row at home (tying a school record), it was ugly as they could score only one TD in regulation. Both teams came into the year ranked, but only one (Iowa obviously) deserved to be and they deserve to be far bigger favorite for this rivalry matchup. 10* Iowa

8* Michigan State (4:00 ET): The Big 10 would appear to be quite loaded this year. I've got six teams in my Top 20. We're already playing one of them (Penn State) elsewhere in the 3-pack and here we'll also be laying double digits w/ another conference power, that being Michigan State. Sure, this play "smells" awfully similar to last week's misfire w/ Washington over Cal. It's a revenge spot for the favorite, but with one significant caveat. In this instance, the underdog (Arizona State) is traveling cross-country. We took the Sun Devils in LY's meeting, but not here. Lay the points. 

When Herm Edwards was hired to the coach at Arizona State, the jury was definitely out. But, ironically, it was the win over Michigan State in the 2nd week of last year that silenced the doubters. As mentioned, we were on ASU in that game as it was a late night start in hot Tempe. Edwards hired a good coaching staff around him, but a big difference between this year and last is the personnel on the field. Last year, it was a multi-year starter at QB (Manny Wilkins) throwing to one of the top receivers in the country (N'Keal Henry). Both are gone and this time the Sun Devils have a true frosh (Jayden Daniels) making his first career road start. The early returns on this ASU offense haven't been great as they've put up just 49 points against Kent State and Sacramento State. Last week's lone TD came w/ just 4:42 remaining on a 72-yard pass play. By the way, the Sun Devils' offensive line has been shaky as well.

Of course, it wasn't necessarily the offense that won the game for ASU last year. It was a 16-13 game where the defense held Sparty to just 2.3 YPC.  But Michigan State didn't have much trouble moving the ball, by land or through the air, last week against Western Michigan. They rolled up 582 total yards in the 51-17 win, including 251 on the ground. Remember that Michigan State was really hurt by injuries last year and easily could have finished better than 7-6. They're a much more experienced group this year and get revenge against Arizona State here. 8* Michigan State

10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): We've already seen Oklahoma State cover one double digit spread on the road as they went to Corvallis to open the season and beat Oregon State 52-36 as 13.5-pt chalk. But w/ this defense, we're not sure they're built to do that very often. The Pokes will be improved in 2019 after a string of 10-win seasons (three in a row) was broken last year (went 7-6) due to a bunch of upsets. They have beaten Tulsa all three times under Gundy by an average of 33 PPG. But this Tulsa team is a bit better and that Cowboys defense remains suspect. This is also Tulsa's home opener. Take the points.

Oklahoma State also has some bigger fish to fry, namely next week's Big 12 opener in Austin. That's a game that's been decided by a field goal three of the last four years (all OSU wins). But for Tulsa, this is an in-state rivalry they'll treat w/ the utmost importance. For Oklahoma State, it's hardly Bedlam. I mentioned earlier that Tulsa is 0-3 vs. Gundy-led OSU teams and none of the games have been particularly close. Well, this is the Cowboys first trip East since 2011. It's a big deal for the Golden Hurricane. This is an experienced team w/ an underrated defense that played a lot of good teams close last year, including Texas, whom they only lost to by 7 (as 22-pt dogs) in Austin. 

Tulsa has already played Michigan State, who they lost to 28-7 in Week 1. While the Golden Hurricane were held to a frighteningly low yardage total (just 80 due to sacks!), that was an odd game. Michigan State scored five times in the second quarter, but one was a defensive TD and another was a safety. The three offensive scores, all field goals, came on drives that totaled ZERO yards. So Tulsa's D really did a good job against a superior opponent. Last week, they blew out San Jose State 34-16 w/ 539 total yds as they discovered the run game. In two games, Oklahoma State's defense has yielded an average of 164 rush YPG. Look for this to be a surprisingly close game. 10* Tulsa

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): It's only been two games, but it's hard not to like what James Franklin and Penn State are doing. The metrics sure do love them as the Nittany Lions have outscored their two opponents 124-20. Sure, one opponent was an FCS school (Idaho) and they started slow last week against Buffalo (trailed 10-7 at halftime!). But when you start slow and still win 45-13, covering a 31-point spot to boot, that probably means you're a pretty talented football team. And talented in precisely what PSU is. I'll gladly lay the points in this Noon ET kickoff in Happy Valley. 

Pitt is coming off a pretty dominant 20-10 win over Ohio last Saturday in what was a really early kick (11 AM local time). The Panthers did finish w/ more than a 2:1 edge in total yards (481-212), but it's obviously a big step up in class this week as they hit the road to face a Power 5 opponent. It's a step up in class they haven't been able to handle under HC Pat Narduzzi as they're 0-3 ATS the L3 years, losing by a combined 64 pts in the previous two. In its last four games vs. P5 opponents, Pitt has scored a grand total of just 40 points. They have more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4) in those games and have failed to gain a first down on half of their drives! 

That futile run against P5 opponents, including the season-opening loss to Virginia where the Panthers could only muster 14 pts and were completely shutout in the second half. It's a better defense that they'll be facing here and Franklin isn't shy about "pouring it on" late either. Penn State is 22-3 SU its last 25 games and has covered the spread in 16 of those games. They are also 12-4 ATS the L16 games at Beaver Stadium. Last year, this game was 51-6 and that was in Pittsburgh. It certainly doesn't help that the Panthers are banged up along the defensive line going into this matchup. 8* Penn State

8* Arkansas State (12:00 ET): Going against #3 Georgia might sound like a risky proposition, however, might the Bulldogs be a bit "sleepy" in this early kickoff Saturday in Athens? They've got a much bigger game on deck (Notre Dame) next Saturday and certainly the players are feeling pretty good about themselves right now following wins over Vandy (30-6) and Murray State (63-17) to start the season. We're obviously getting a lot of points in this matchup and that scenario hasn't exactly treated UGA well under Kirby Smart as he's just 7-11 ATS as a home favorite, including 2-5 ATS vs. Group of Five teams. Georgia has also failed to cover four of the last five times it's been asked to lay 31 or more. Take the points. 

Arkansas State is off a highly emotional win as their HC Blake Anderson surprised the team by showing up before the game. Anderson had been on leave due to his wife, Wendy, passing away from cancer last month. Right from the kickoff, the Red Wolves played inspired football in Las Vegas, crushing UNLV 43-17. It was their first win of the year after losing under interim HC David Duggan to SMU the previous week, 37-30. That loss no longer looks like a reason for the Red Wolves to hang their heads, however, especially with the difference in the game being a kick return for touchdown. SMU just clobbered North Texas, so they might be a better football team than most realize. 

Arkansas State is obviously going to be driven by emotion the rest of the season. HC Anderson is now back with the team. Even the Georgia program has decided to honor Wendy's passing by announcing a a "pink-out" for Saturday's game. I just can't see ASU being blown out here, at least not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. Last year, the Red Wolves hung nearly 400 total yards on Alabama's defense, a game which will have them better prepared for what they face here. We saw what the offense could do last week and in two games, they have scored 73 points. They'll score enough here to cover the generous number. 8* Arkansas State

8* North Carolina (6:00 ET): Who says "you can't go back home again?" Mack Brown is back in Chapel Hill and North Carolina is 2-0 SU/ATS after opening the season w/ B2B upsets over South Carolina and Miami. Now, for the first time since Brown's return, I'm ready to proclaim the Tar Heels as being the better team GOING INTO the matchup as this week they face Wake Forest. Yes, the game takes place in Winston-Salem but this Demon-Deacons team appears overrated. Starting a season w/ three consecutive upsets is rare, but not unprecedented. Take the points. 

In an odd quirk, this is actually NOT an ACC game even though both schools hail from that particular conference. Because of the size of the ACC (14 teams) and that they aren't in the same division, the schools decided to renew their rivalry on their own. Good for them. The home team has won four straight w/ UNC's 50-14 triumph in 2015 being the last meeting. But during his previous tenure (1988-97), Brown feasted on his in-state rivals, winning the last 16 such games. I don't think there's any denying that Brown has this program pointed back in the right direction. The Tar Heels were going to be improved this year no matter who the coach was (lost five games LY by 7 pts or less), but it's looking like Brown was the right man for the job.

Both teams have had their fair share of close calls so far. North Carolina's two wins have come by a total of seven points and both saw them rally late in the 4Q. They did finish w/ a 483-270 edge in total yds against South Carolina despite being down 20-9 entering the fourth. Wake Forest barely escaped Utah State in Week 1, winning on a late Kendall Hinton TD. But the WR is now injured and out. Last week against Rice, the Demon Deacons didn't pull away until late and actually had fewer first downs than the Owls. The Tar Heels were a lot better than their 5-19 SU record the L2 seasons and Brown clearly has them trending in the right direction. My power ratings indicate they should be FAVORED here. 8* North Carolina

10* Washington (10:30 ET): You wanna talk some line value. Last year when these teams met, Washington was an 11-point favorite in Berkeley. They obviously lost outright (12-10), setting up the big revenge play here. But only having to lay a similar number here in Seattle seems like a real bargain. The Huskies were ranked #15 in the country at the time of LY's loss and while Chris Petersen's team isn't being considered nearly as dangerous for 2019, that seems a bit foolish on the surface as they're actually ranked slightly higher currently and we agree w/ the pollsters' assessment. Lay the number here in this Pac 12 opener! 

It's not just the revenge angle that has us on UW here. We're simply not fans of this Cal team either as they figure to really struggle to put points on the board. They got away w/ not scoring a single offensive TD in last year's upset, but don't figure to be that fortunate again as the Huskies are certainly reminding themselves of what happened that day. While it's a new year, Cal has only four starters back on offense. They turned the ball over quite a bit in 2018 and that looks like it's still going to be a problem as they coughed it up four times in last week's 27-13 win over Cal Davis. The Bears' defense is very good, one of the nation's best on the backend in fact, but they are going to be tested a lot more here.

One of the reasons you should not expect much of a slip w/ Washington this season is they brought in a transfer at QB in Jacob Eason, who comes over from Georgia. Eason's first start saw him throw for four touchdowns and 349 yards in a 47-14 rout of Eastern Washington. The Huskies also ran for 200 yards on offense as it really was a complete performance. This is a team that has won the Pac 12 two of the last three seasons and can absolutely get back to the Championship Game again this year. They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home the last three years, so not only will there be no upset this time around, look for the Huskies to win big Saturday night in a revenge spot on National TV. 10* Washington

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It can't be understated as to what an amazing turnaround Jeff Tedford has engineered here at Fresno State. Two years ago, he inherited a team that had just gone 1-11 SU and finished dead last in the Mountain West Conference. Under his direction, the Bulldogs have gone a stunning 22-6 SU and 20-6-2 at the betting window. They were 12-2 SU last year and won the Conference Title, winning at Boise State. That was a revenge spot for a regular season loss on the blue turf. Late Saturday, FSU gets a shot at revenge for the other of LY's two losses, that being Minnesota, who now must come out to the West Coast (LY's game in Minneapolis). Take the points. 

Last year was a very even game that saw Fresno State give up the go-ahead score (was tied 14-14) w/ just over three minutes remaining. The game ended w/ FSU throwing an INT in the end zone on the potential game-tying score. I love the fact that the Bulldogs are getting points at home for this rematch as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS as underdogs under Tedford following LW's cover at USC. While they lost the game 31-23, note FSU actually outgained the Trojans 462-447. Yes, Southern Cal lost its starting QB to a season ending injury, but the real key was a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD in the third quarter. Take that away and it was basically an even game at the Coliseum. 

Minnesota is not as good as USC, but you already knew that. PJ Fleck's team had trouble beating South Dakota State last week, winning by only seven (28-21) as 14-pt favorites. Yes, South Dakota State is one of the better FCS programs. But Minnesota needed a late score just to win the game on the field. The problem for the Gophers appears to be along the line - on both sides of the ball. They gave up a ton of rushing yards last week (174) and considering Fresno just ran for 200+ against USC, expect them to rack up plenty of yards over land in this one as well. 8* Fresno State

analysis soon

8* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): It's important NOT to overreact to just one game. However, if Wisconsin's season-opening win over USF (49-0 shutout!) was any indication, then the Badgers may be more improved that most realize. This was going to be an improved team anyway after shockingly falling to just eight wins LY, the low-water mark in Madison over the past decade. The Badgers are our choice to win the wide-open Big 10 West this year and are a potential Top 10 team down the line. Currently ranked #16 in the polls, they should have zero difficulty in blowing out a Central Michigan team that is probably still the worst the MAC has to offer. The huge number won't scare us off. Lay it!

That 49-0 win over South Florida last week came on the road for Paul Chryst's team as they outgained the Bulls 433-157. If you recall, we railed against USF for much of last season, but at one point they were ranked. So they have every right to be excited in Madison right now. Remember that RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off a season in which he ran for 2194 yards! He ran for four touchdowns last week. The defense wasn't up to par last year, but clearly has improved. In Chryst's first three seasons here, the Badgers never allowed more than 16 PPG. That number spiked to 22.6 PPG last season, but will almost certainly decrease in 2019. 

Central Michigan was horrible last season, winning only 1 game and it was against FCS Maine (by a score of 17-5!). Jim McElwain, who previously failed at Florida, takes over this job and it's a pretty big rebuild up in Mount Pleasant. The Chippewas did open the season w/ a 38-21 win, but it was against FCS Albany and giving up that many points probably isn't a good sign. The defense was considered the stronger side of the ball last year, but still allowed over 200 rush yards per game and has just three starters back. So Taylor should run wild here. CMU did have only three losses by 24+ points LY and just one (51-13 at Toledo in the final game) by more than this spread. But it's been a long time since the Chips faced a team as good as Wisconsin. It promises to be a LONG Saturday for them. 8* Wisconsin

8* Bowling Green (12:00 ET): This is one where we don't see an outright upset, but we're not about to bypass taking this many points against a Kansas State squad still getting its proverbial "feet wet" in the post Bill Snyder era. The Wildcats slipped to 5-7 SU in Snyder's final season, missing a bowl for the 1st time in nine seasons, by blowing a 17-pt lead in the reg season finale at Iowa State (but they still covered for us!). Chris Klieman takes over, coming from North Dakota State where he won four FCS Nat'l Titles in five years. His first game went well w/ the Wildcats running for a school record 361 yards (on 58 carries) against FCS Nicholls State. Though Bowling Green has struggled the last several years, don't expect them to get run over like that. Take the points. 

Bowling Green also has a 1st year HC in Scott Loefer, who spent the better part of the last decade serving as the OC for some high profile programs (Auburn, Va Tech & BC). This is clearly a massive rebuild he's undertaking and it didn't help that QB Jarret Doege decided to transfer late. But the Falcons' first game was a success as they too clubbed a FCS opponent, beating Morgan State 46-3 w/ a 620-70 edge in total yards! Consider that a "confidence-builder" for a rare P5 game against a team from a conference other than the Big 10. 

Kansas State has two big road games on deck, at Mississippi State and Oklahoma State w/ a bye week in between. Don't be surprised if late in the game (assuming this one isn't coming down to the wire), the coaching staff doesn't become more concerned about those games than this one. As for BGSU, who just suffered through three bad seasons under former HC Mike Jinks, expect an all-out effort Saturday afternoon in Manhattan. The early start time may do no favors for the favorite either. Consider that this spread is currently larger than what KSU was asked to lay to an FCS opponent last week. There were only three times in the previous two seasons where the Wildcats were asked to lay between 21 and 31 points. They won all three games, but failed to cover twice. This is too big a number for them to be laying right now. 8* Bowling Green

8* Maryland (12:00 ET): Over the course of the final nine weeks of last year's NCAAF regular season, we nailed an amazing 18 outright upsets. Wasting little time this year, we've already nailed Hawaii (+11.5) on Opening Night as well as Boise State over Florida State last Saturday. We anticipated this to be the latest addition to our "upset brigade," but unfortunately it can no longer qualify as the line has "jumped the fence" here w/ Maryland now favored. Never fear though. The Terps still are a solid play here as Syracuse (#21 AP/#22 Coaches) is a ranked team in name only. 

It's a new era in College Park, MD w/ Mike Locksley taking over. Locksley served as the OC under Nick Saban at Alabama the L2 seasons and was the Broyles Award Winner (top assistant) last year. The Maryland players went through alot LY w/ the death of a teammate and the dismissal of D.J. Durkin. But they still opened w/ an emotional 34-29 upset of Texas. Locksley's 1st game as HC projected to be a whole heck of a lot easier and it was w/ Terps beating Howard 79-0. It was a 56-0 game at halftime, giving the starters some rest coming into this week, which is their 1st real test. The Terps finished w/ a 623-68 edge in total yds last wk despite basically taking the 2nd half off. The defense, which has five seniors, allowed just 1 rushing yard and never allowed Howard to cross midfield. For the record, the line flipping might be a blessing in disguise considering the Terrapins are 6-3 ATS their L9 times favored. 

Dino Babers looks to be building a winner at Syracuse. Last year, his 3rd on the job, saw him guide the Orange to a 10-win season. But don't look for them to be as good as last year. A season-opening win over Liberty (24-0) showed that the offense is going to miss dynamic QB Eric Dungey, who graduated as the school's all-time passing leader. Yes, like Maryland, the 'Cuse pitched a shutout last week as well. But it came against an opponent whose HC was laying in a hospital bed (not making this up!). All three of the Orange's losses LY came outside the Carrier Dome. They are just two years removed from a winless season on the road. Maryland is the better team and look for them to win this battle of former ACC rivals. 8* Maryland

10* Houston (7:30 ET): Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley has earned the moniker of "quarterback whisperer" in his two seasons at Norman, although I'm not sure just how much actual whispering is required when you have the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray (the last two #1 overall DC's of the NFL) at your disposal. Riley and the Sooners have seemingly been gifted another star QB in the form of Jalen Hurts, who transferred out of Alabama when it became Tua Tagovailoa was the man in Tuscaloosa. Hurts will be tasked w/ leading a team in search of its fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. The Sooners figure to be favored in every game this season, but are laying a hefty number to a Houston team in the opener. Take the points here. 

It was 2016, one year before Riley took over for Bob Stoops, that Oklahoma lost outright to Houston in the season opener. They were 12-pt favorites that day, on a neutral field, and lost 33-23 to a Houston team that had legit playoff aspirations of their own that season. Things didn't play out that way (team finished 9-4 SU that year) and Tom Herman wound up leaving for Texas. After two seasons of Major Applewhite at the helm, a change was made and Dana Holgorsen is now running the show. Holgorsen is very familiar w/ OU having coached at WVU the last eight seasons. He didn't have much success, but this team is arguably more talented than what he had the last few years in Morgantown.

Speaking of QB's, Houston's D'Eriq King must be mentioned. He accounted for FIFTY touchdowns a year ago and that was with missing the final two games, neither of which went well for the Cougars. Injuries also hurt on the defensive side of the ball and that showed in those final two games (both blowout losses). But because of those injuries, the returning defense has more experience. Under Holgorsen, King should flourish. This is a very dangerous Houston team, one that should not be getting this many points, even in Norman. The Cougars were actually favored in every game King started last year. Oklahoma has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been chalk of 21.5 to 31 points. 10* Houston

10* Duke (3:30 ET): I'm certain you recall Alabama being absolutely humiliated by Clemson last January in the BCS Title Game as Nick Saban was handed perhaps his worst ever defeat, losing 44-16. So the narrative seems to be that the Crimson Tide are going to come out angry in 2019, looking to blow everyone away (much like they did last year before running into Clemson). The Tide are quite accustomed to these neutral site season openers, winning nine in a row by an average of 24 PPG. But I'd be hesitant about laying this many points. In fact, I'm grabbing the number as Duke is always pesky under HC David Cutcliffe. 

Now, at the end of the game, I fully anticipate the announcers yelling "Roll Tide." I just don't think they'll "roll" as much as the oddsmakers think they will. Duke comes into the year having to replace QB Daniel Jones, who the NFL's Giants made their top draft choice. While that pick may have been somewhat maligned by draftniks, Jones will be missed in Durham. Still, I trust Cutcliffe enough to expect him to get something out of the QB position. Quentin Harris has made only two career starts (both coming LY when Jones was hurt), but is a senior. One starting receiver (Jake Bobo) is out, but he didn't exactly have awe-inspiring numbers last year. The bottom line is that the only P5 teams w/ more bowl victories than Duke in the L4 years are: Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin. 

The Blue Devils can make a game out of this, at least for awhile, which will keep this game within the number. Alabama obviously lost a ton of talent to the NFL. While they're in solid position to replace it, there will still be many first-time starters in the lineup. I don't expect the same fire we saw from the Tide last year, at least in non-conference play. Maybe that will disappoint Saban, but he can settle for another SEC Title & playoff sport. Duke is 10-2 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons and 8-2 ATS when getting 31 or more points going back to '93. 10* Duke

8* Memphis (12:00 ET): Consider all that happened to Memphis last season. There were four different games where they blew a DD lead and lost. Two were against a UCF team that would run the table in the regular season. The other two were upset losses at the hands of Navy (terrible weather) and Wake Forest (Birmingham Bowl). They were also upset as two-touchdown chalk at Tulane. That Tulane loss left them 0-2 in AAC play. Yet the Tigers would still go onto win their division and appear in the Conference Title Game. This year's team projects to be better and I'm taking them in the season opener vs. Ole Miss.

Now you may be questioning laying points w/ an AAC team against an opponent from the big, bad SEC. But know that Memphis has gone 13-2 SU at the Liberty Bowl the L2 seasons w/ both losses coming by a single point! They are 0-4 SU against UCF the L2 yrs, but 18-5 SU vs. everyone else. It was four years ago that Ole Miss came to the Liberty Bowl as a 10-pt favorite and lost by double digits (38-24). That was a much more talented Rebels squad too; at the time they were ranked #13 in the country. The Ole Miss team that arrives this year hasn't had a winning season since 2015. They have just three returning starters on offense as well. 

Now the Rebels were dealing w/ a bowl ban the L2 years and have made significant changes at coordinator w/ Rich Rod running the offense and Mike MacIntyre running the defense for HC Matt Luke. There are 10 starters back on defense. But they are going to struggle to score in the early going (freshman QB) and that should prove costly against a Memphis team that's averaged no fewer than 38.8 PPG under HC Jay Norvell. This is an 11 AM start local time. Ole Miss has gone just 3-6 SU, 2-6 ATS on the road the L2 seasons and is 2-10 SU, 2-9 ATS as a dog. Memphis is not only 13-2 SU at home the L2 season, but also 10-5 ATS. Lay the short number. 8* Memphis

10* Boise State (12:00 ET): Well, Mother Nature has intervened here, moving the game from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the threat of Hurricane Dorian. That turns it from a de facto to actual home game for Florida State. In the interest of full disclosure, I had Boise State before the news came out. I'm sticking w/ them too as now we'll (likely) be able to get an even better number. Remember this is just as much a disruption for FSU as it is the Broncos (game takes place earlier in the day now too). You're not going to see Boise, a 31-win team the last three seasons, getting points very often. Take advantage. 

Florida State does figure to be one of the more improved teams in the country. Last year seemed almost like a "worst case scenario" under HC Willie Taggart as the 'Noles finished 5-7 SU and missed out on a bowl for the 1st time since 1982! It was their first losing season since Bobby Bowden's 1st year here, back in 1976! Taggart can only dream of the kind of career Bowden had here. While this team is definitely going to be better than last year's edition, I think this spread is a classic case of "putting the cart before the horse," or Bronco, whichever you'd like. 

The last two years have seen Florida State go just 8-16 against the spread. Boise State is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog. FSU had only one win over a ranked team last year and it was BC (#22) by 1 pt here at home. Boise State brings a tremendous defense to Florida. The Florida State defense remains a question mark. Due to the change in time and venue, plus weather uncertainty, don't be surprised if this turns into a low-scoring game as well. Fewer total points scored is just another reason to take the underdog in this one as Boise's freshman QB Hank Bachmeier can make some plays. 10* Boise State

8* Army (6:00 ET): Army just keeps marching along under HC Jeff Monken, who has set a new school record for wins in a single season each of the last two years! The Cadets were 11-2 last year, one of those losses coming at Oklahoma (in overtime!) The other was the season opener at Duke, the only "bad" game they played all season. Something tells me that Monken will have his team far better prepared for the season opener this year, which comes against a Rice team that projects to be one of the worst, if not THE worst team in the entire country! The Black Knights can name the score here. Lay the points. 

Army has gone 21-5 SU the last two seasons and ended LY ranked #19 after clobbering Houston 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is truly a team to be reckoned with now. They've won 23 straight at West Point as well. Rice won't be threatening them straight up here, rather it's all about the pointspread and final margin of victory. Yes, the Owls have had a full offseason to prepare for the triple option offense Army runs. But considering how bad the defense was last year, it'll take a lot more than just preparation. The last two games vs. Army have resulted in losses by a combined score of 80-26. 

Rice won just two games last year, the opener (vs. FCS Prairie View A&M) and the finale (upset of Old Dominion). In between, they lost 11 in a row and were outgained by 138 yards per game in C-USA. Unless something drastic changes, the Owls project to be underdogs in all 12 games this year. They were 0-7 SU on the road a season ago, losing all seven by at least two touchdowns. The defensive line is inexperienced coming into the year. Army's offense led the country in time of possession last year while Rice's simply lacks the firepower to keep up. Last year, the Owls averaged only 18.9 PPG (actually up from 16.3 in '17!) 8* Army 

8* Utah (10:15 ET): One of these years, BYU is going to win a "Holy War" (lost 8 in a row). It just isn't going to be in 2019. The Cougars seemed to get plenty of love from early bettors for this season opening matchup vs. rival Utah, but the Utes are a legit top 15 team in the country this year and one of the favorites out in the Pac 12. Thus, this number looks to be way too short. Yes, many of these games have been close, including last year when Utah came back from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27 (-11) in Salt Lake. But this Utes team just may be the most talented BYU has faced in recent memory. Lay the short number.

Consider that last year Utah made it to the Pac 12 Championship Game (lost to Washington 10-3) despite losing their starting QB and RB midway through the season. Both are back and ready to contribute in a major way. You know the Utes are going to be eager to take the field here after losing a bowl for just the second time under HC Whittingham. Something not talked about enough outside Pac 12 circles is that Utah perennially has one of the best special teams units in the country. They are also very strong along both the offensive and defensive lines entering the season. 

BYU went 7-6 last season, a nice bounce back from the somewhat shocking 4-win campaign in 2017. This is HC Kalane Sitaki's fourth year in Provo and obviously he's winless in "Holy Wars." While the Cougars should be a decent team in 2019, they simply are not at the level of the Utes, who (again) are a legit top 15 team. There are plenty of returning starters for Sitaki (17 total), but still there exists a gap between his team and the one in Salt Lake. Consider that in last year's comeback win, Utah didn't have either QB Huntley or RB Moss. Now they do. This number is just too low. 8* Utah

10* Tulane (8:00 ET): Tulane has seen its win total inherit in each of Willie Fritz's three seasons. Fritz inherited a 3-win team in 2016, brought them up to 4, then 5 in 2017 (just missed a bowl) and then finally 7 last year, including that elusive bowl win (1st since '02). The Green Wave started just 2-5 SU last year before going 5-1 down the stretch. While an easier second half schedule was somewhat responsible for the surge, credit must also be given to QB Justin McMillan, whose insertion into the starting lineup also coincided w/ the surge. Only five offensive starters return for Tulane, but one is McMillan, now a senior. Fritz should also have one of his better defenses this year w/ eight starters back on that side of the ball. 

Speaking of improving, credit must be given to the coaching job being done at FIU by Butch Davis. In his two years back in Miami (previously served at "The U"), he's led the Panthers to 8 and 9-win seasons. Last year's ended with a bowl win, same as Tulane, 35-32 over Toledo. Davis will have eight starters back on both sides of the ball this year, including senior QB James Morgan (NFL prospect) and expectations are thus pretty high for this team. But after going 4-1 SU on the road last year, I see the Panthers actually taking a step back in '19 (maybe just a slight one). Last year, FIU pulled off six outright upsets as underdogs. I don't see that happening again either. 

These teams met back in 2017 w/ FIU winning 23-10 as a DD home dog. That right there should tell you how far the program has come under Davis. But look for Fritz and Tulane to get revenge here. They're used to opening the season on a Thursday night as they've done so six of the last seven seasons. After last year's early season slumber, the Green Wave will be looking to start fast in 2019. FIU has dropped 12 of its last 14 season openers, including three straight. The big key here will be Tulane's rushing offense, which averaged 219 YPG last year and will going against an FIU defense that allowed 192 YPG on the ground. 10* Tulane

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): You may recall that we opened last season w/ a play on Hawaii and they richly rewarded us w/ a 43-34 outright upset of Colorado State as two-touchdown underdogs. It may not be that easy this time around, but the Warriors getting double digits out on the island is simply too good to pass up (last year's opener was on the road). One of the many rationales cited for playing Hawaii in LY's season opener was that the opponent (CSU) matched the Warriors' inexperience and was caught laying far too many points, given the situation. Well, this year Hawaii has twice as many returning starters (18) as they did a year ago. Take the points. 

Arizona was very close to making a bowl game last year, but blew a 19-point 4Q lead to rival Arizona State in the regular season finale. That left them at 5-7 SU in HC Kevin Sumlin's first year in Tucson. Sumlin should be cut some slack at QB Khalil Tate was injured most of the year and the team just wasn't the same w/o him and his dual threat ability. I would expect the Wildcats to be better this season, but laying double digits on the road to a team that won a bowl game last year, in the opener no less, seems to be a case of "putting the cart before the horse." 

No one saw Hawaii starting last year at 6-1, probably not even HC Nick Rolovich. But the "Run and Shoot" (offense) is back in Honolulu and the Warriors scored 40+ five times in the first six games despite having just three starters back from 2017. Now they have nine starters back on both sides of the ball. I don't see the Warriors matching LY's 8-win total or even likely winning this game outright, but they are certainly capable of putting a lot of points on the board, so them in the underdog role is attractive here. Hawaii is on an 8-2 ATS run vs. the Pac 12 while Arizona has failed to cover 16 of its previous 21 road games. Take the points. 8* Hawaii

10* Clemson (8:00 ET): This is the 4th year in a row that Alabama and Clemson are meeting in the College Football Playoff and third time in those four years to determine the National Champion. The schools split the two prior Championship Games w/ Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 and then Clemson returning the favor 35-31 one year later. The Tigers covered the spread (as underdogs) both times before the Crimson Tide largely dominated LY's CFP semifinal matchup, winning 24-6 as 3.5-pt chalk. But the starting QB for each team will be different this time around with Tua starting for Alabama and Trevor Lawrence starting for Clemson. To me, Clemson has proven itself to be Alabama's equal over the past several seasons and should be priced as such. I'm taking the points.

Clemson had an even easier time than I anticipated w/ Notre Dame in the semifinals, rolling to a 30-3 win. I felt they deserved to be DD favorites in the game, but it was clear that ND didn't even belong on the same field. They outgained the Fighting Irish 538-248 and consider it was a 23-3 game at halftime, so the final score easily could have been even more lopsided. Clemson ended the game by kneeling inside the red zone and earlier fumbled at the ND 12-yard line. Lawrence completed 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns as the offense has clearly become more dynamic w/ him as the starter. He left his 1st start (vs. Syracuse) due to injury, but has since played every game. Clemson has won those games by 60, 34, 49, 61, 20, 29, 21, 31 & 27 pts! My goodness! 

That's an average margin of victory of 36.8 PPG w/ no final score closer than 20 points. And this team is an underdog? It's a role they are rarely in Perhaps most shocking of all from the Notre Dame game is that the defense didn't even skip a beat despite playing w/o All-American Dexter Lawrence. I know everyone is going to want to talk Tua and the Bama offense, which has earned the right to be called the best ever of the Saban era in Tuscaloosa. But Clemson will be the best defense they have seen all year and is the only defense better than their own. Over the last four seasons, Clemson has lost only four times, three of those coming by five points or less. I know that Alabama is responsible for two of those four losses, including the one that was by more than five points, but these teams are basically equals coming into this game. 10* Clemson 

8* Washington (5:00 ET): Ohio State is a very popular side in this year's edition of the Rose Bowl, not only based on name recognition, but also due to the fact that this is Urban Meyer's final game on the sidelines. Conventional wisdom says the Buckeyes "will" send Meyer out a winner, but let's not forget that Georgia Tech (admittedly not as strong a team as OSU) failed to do the same for Paul Johnson earlier this week. Washington is a really strong defensive team and it's not like Ohio State didn't underachieve this year (despite losing only one game). I'll take the points here. 

The Huskies give up only 15.5 PPG. Like Ohio State, they came into 2018 w/ CFP aspirations, only to fall short. But they still won the Pac 12 Championship, winning at Washington State in the regular season finale and then holding Utah to only three points in the Conference Title Game. Oregon was the only team this year to score more than 24 pts on the Huskies. Granted, Ohio State will be the best offense they have faced this year. But the Huskies' three losses this year have been by a combined 10 points. They have not been blown out and I don't expect them to be here. For those pointing to the Michigan game as a sign Ohio State may put up a ton of points here, note that Washington plays a different style of defense. 

The Buckeyes had three wins by five points or less in the regular season and two of those were against Maryland and Nebraska, non-bowl teams. Defensively, this team had issues all season, giving up at least 26 points in all but five games. The Washington offense was far from consistent this year, but they have a senior QB in Jake Browning that will want to go out a winner just as much as Meyer. Browning and the seniors have not won a bowl game since the 2015 Heart of Dallas Bowl against Southern Miss. They are a great value as a contrarian dog here. 8* Washington