8* North Carolina (12:20 ET): To say the Tar Heels are a desperate team entering their third game of the season would be putting it mildly. Larry Fedora's team is 0-2 SU and off a bye. You have to remember that it was not the best offseason in Chapel Hill. Fedora has some questionable commenatary on CTE. Then 13 players were suspended for selling Nike gear. The latter has certainly has had more impact than the former, but there's no denying that something is awry w/ this program right now. Was losing the opener at Cal acceptable? Sure, they were seven-point underdogs and that was the final margin (24-17). But a 41-19 loss at East Carolina (as 15-pt chalk!) was a clear step in the WRONG direction. Last week's game vs. UCF had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, so I expect the Tar Heels to come out HIGHLY motivated as a home dog this week. Take the points. 

Pitt was a home dog itself last week and pulled the outright upset over Georgia Tech. It was a much needed bounce back for Pat Narduzzi's team after getting walloped by Penn State, 51-6, the week prior. This will be the Panthers' first road game of the year and they were just 1-4 SU away from Heinz Field last season. They were slightly outgained by Ga Tech last week, but did lead comfortably (as in 24-6) heading into the 4th quarter. But again, that was at home. It was a yeoman's effort defensively LW holding Ga Tech to five plays or less on six of the first seven drives. But they also got a big break early, thanks to some questionable decision making by Yellow Jackets' HC Paul Johnson, who elected to run a fake punt from his own 28-yard line. It was stuffed and Pitt responded w/ its second TD of the game, thanks to the short field. The game was basically "in the bag" at that point.

Since joining the ACC, Pitt has never beaten North Carolina. They are 0-5 SU, though all five losses have been by a TD or less. I do think the bye is huge for North Carolina. Yes, they are still dealing with suspensions plus the issues as a result of Florence. But I suspect Fedora is going to have his players ready for Saturday in an emotional spot. Pitt really delivered w/ its own "back against the wall" last week, but it will be very challenging to duplicate that kind of performance on the road. Consider that the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons. 8* North Carolina 

8* Kent State (12:00 ET): Both of these teams gave up 60+ points to top 10 teams last week. One is now being asked to lay four touchdowns. Obviously, there's a massive talent gap that exists between Kent State and Ole Miss, but consider the former actually hung w/ Penn State for about a half before the inevitable took place. It was actually the second time this year the Golden Flashes have had to play a Big 10 team on the road. They covered the first, at Illinois. While 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs. SEC schools, Kent State is catching Ole Miss at the right time. The Rebels were flat out embarrassed last week, here at home, losing to Alabama 62-7. Make no mistake about it; the Rebels' pysche was severely wounded by that result and they won't be "up" for this game, which comes right in between Bama & LSU. Take the points. 

Kent State was tied w/ Penn State early on last Saturday, 7-7, midway through the first quarter. It was only 21-10 late in the second when the Nittany Lions tacked on another TD right before halftime. That drive started w/ a long kick return after a Kent State field goal. The second half was all Penn State. Still, this offense is much improved from LY when it averaged just 12.8 PPG, which was second fewest in the country. That's owed to 1st year HC Sean Lewis, who was the former OC at Syracuse at Dino Babers, and that means the offense is going to play "fast." Consider the Ole Miss' defense is giving up 43.3 points and 544 yards per game. Before you go thinking that's heavily skewed by Alabama, consider the Rebels gave up more yards to Southern Illinois (629!) the week prior, not to mention 41 points. 

Remember that Ole Miss still is facing a bowl ban from the disgraced Huge Freeze era. So motivation is going to be a big question all year w/ this team. I thought HC Matt Luke did an admirable job in guiding this team to a 6-6 record last year (his 1st on the job), but the 2018 version of the Rebels is going to struggle as they figure to be a dog in every SEC game. They still have LA Monroe on the schedule, so this probably won't be their last victory. But it'll be closer than the "experts" think. Consider Ole Miss was down 49-7 at the half (at home) last week. Those thinking it will be an easy bounce back are likely to be disappointed. 8* Kent State

8* SMU (12:00 ET): SMU has had to play two very good teams the last two weeks, TCU and Michigan (both ranked in the top 20). For at least a half, the Ponies played both tough. After a long weather delay, they jumped out to a 9-0 lead on TCU. They only trailed 14-12 at the half, but from there it was all Horned Frogs, who scored the game's final 28 points. Keep in mind though that TCU scored three non-offensive TD's in the contest, somewhat robbing SMU of the cover as 23.5-pt dogs. The Mustangs did cover last week, at Michigan, as they were getting 36.5 from the oddsmakers. It was only a 15-pt game early in the 4Q, but still SMU found a way to lose a third straight game by 20 or more. Back as a home dog this week, I like them to cover. Take the points. 

Navy's last venture as a road favorite did not go well at all as they lost outright to Hawaii, 59-41. They were 13.5-pt chalk in that contest. They've since bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Memphis and Lehigh, but neither was very impressive. The win over Memphis was a come from behind effort that saw the Middies rally from down 21-9 to pick up an outright win as a 6.5-pt home dog. They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the game-winning one coming w/ just 2:37 left on the clock. Navy was outgained in the contest, but clearly benefited from a +3 TO margin and massive edge in time of possession. There was also a driving rain during the game that played to their strength (running the ball!) on offense. Last week's win came against FCS Lehigh, who turned it over five times. 

Looking at this week's forecast, it appears as if rain is all but assured. But don't think that means Navy will be able to take advantage again. Yes, SMU has lost to Navy eight straight times, including a 75-31 debacle the last time here in Dallas (two years ago). But last year was a lot closer (SMU lost 43-40 in Annapolis) as the Ponies rallied back from a 34-11 deficit, only to come up just short. One thing to keep an eye on here is the SMU defense, which ranks top 25 nationally in tackles for loss. That's key when facing the triple option. SMU comes in 0-3 SU, so they're a desperate home dog here and when desperate is often the best time to take a home dog. They've actually played three good teams (North Texas too) and a pretty easy case can be made that Navy is the weakest opponent they have faced so far. 8* SMU

10* USC (10:30 ET): If you're into treating teams like stocks, this is a REAL "buy low" spot on Southern Cal. The Trojans have lost B2B games and are laying just a short number in a revenge game. Both losses have come in primetime, national TV games, so the public has certainly soured on them. The USC offense has managed just 17 total points the last two games while averaging 324.5 yards game behind freshman QB JT Daniels. But both of those losses took place on the road. Clay Helton's team has won 12 straight PAC 12 home games and is 25-7 SU their L32. I realize the Washington State defense is seemingly improved, but you have to factor in the opposition when looking at their numbers. USC's defense just held Texas to a 45.5 completion percentage and 3.3 yards per carry. I'll lay the points.

So Wazzu is 3-0, both SU and ATS. But they've played Wyoming (who was on a short week), San Jose State (very bad) and Eastern Washington (FCS team). So take this "defensive improvement" w/ a grain of salt. Yes, last year's defense was the best of the Mike Leach era, but they lost an All-American in Hercules Mata'afa. That Wyoming team the Cougars beat has scored a total of just 49 points its last three games and needed a late TD to get by Wofford (FCS team) last week. San Jose State is 0-3 and one of the worst teams in FCS, including a loss to a FCS school (UC Davis). So this will be a considerable step up in class for a Washington State team that has just one win at the Coliseum this millenium.

Last year's game saw Washington State beat a Top 5 team for the first time since 1992. It was a 30-27 upset (as four-point dogs) and also on a Friday night. Notable is that USC was down THREE starting offensive linemen for that game and also coming in unbeaten following WINS over Stanford and Texas. This script has totally been flipped this year. The Trojans did lose by 23 last week in Austin, but they were only down 9 when a blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown. Like I said, the defense played well. This is basically a "must win" for Helton, which of course does not guarantee victory, but I think he will and cover comfortably. 10* USC

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It has not been a great return to College Football for Chip Kelly at UCLA. Last week's blowout loss at Oklahoma was to be expected. But considering they barely covered a 30-point spread (scored late TD), that should tell you all you need to know about the current state of this once proud program. There was also the embarrassing showing in the season opener, a 26-17 home loss to Cincinnati where they were favored to win by double digits. That game saw a freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson pressed into duty when grad transfer Wilton Speight (from Michigan) was injured. Speight didn't play against Oklahoma and his status for this Saturday night vs. Fresno State is unclear. But what is clear is that Chip Kelly's team simply is not very good right now. 

Fresno State was one of the unheralded stories in all of College Football last season. They went from 1-11 SU to 10-4 SU in Jeff Tedford's first season at the helm. They are expected to regress some this year and did lose last week at Minnesota. But that game wasn't decided until the final minutes when a halfback pass resulted in an INT in the endzone. Fresno State even led, on the road, in the fourth quarter. It's a much weaker defense they're going up against this week, one that was horrible at stopping the run last year (worst in the country) and not showing much improvement in that department so far this year (186.5 YPG allowed). Fresno State's inability to run the ball last week (just 87 yds) really hurt them, but they did run for 239 yds in the opener vs. Idaho. Look for better success running the ball in this game, at least compared to last week. 

With Tedford and Kelly patrolling the respective sidelines, this will at least have the "feel" of a Pac 12 style game when these two used to match up at Cal and Oregon. But it's Tedford who has a team that more closely resembles the "good old days." Kelly has a lot to sort through here in Westwood and seems determined to play a lot of his own recruits, even if they aren't really ready. I anticipate some real "growing pains" w/ this Bruins squad and those thinking an 0-2 home team is a lock to win are being far too optimistic. Fresno State is 19-7 ATS the L3 seasons while UCLA is just 9-18 ATS. Eventually, the Bruins will get better, but it won't be during this game or maybe even this season. 8* Fresno State 

10* Massachusetts (7:30 ET): This is the third consecutive week UMass is playing on the road and the last two have not gone well. They lost 55-21 at Boston College and then 34-13 at Georgia Southern. But both of those teams are far better than what they face this week, that being Florida International, who is coached by Butch Davis. FIU is off a win last week, as a favorite, against Old Dominion. It was a road game (FIU was favored by three) and a 28-20 final, but they had to rally back from 17 points down and there was a two-hour rain delay that impacted the game. It's hard to credit the weather w/ giving either team an edge, but FIU was clearly sharper afterwards as Old Dominion never scored in the second half. UMass is better than what they've shown the last two weeks and I have them going down to Miami and recording an outright win. Take the points. 

It was a 17-0 deficit for FIU midway through the 2nd quarter last week and it appeared as if they were well on their way to a second straight loss to open the season. The opener was a real disappointment as they were beaten 38-28 by Indiana here at home. Then came a traumatic week w/ two FIU players - starting RB Anthony Jones and offensive lineman Mershawn Miller - being the victims of a drive-by shooting. Both thankfully survived, but their football futures are in doubt. Kudos to their teammates for rallying around them and coming from 17 down to beat ODU last week. The key was three straight long TD drives, one right before halftime and the other two opening the third quarter. That took them from a 20-7 deficit to a 28-20 lead, which was the final score. The weather delay came before the two second half scores and ODU was not the same offensively afterwards.

This will actually be the fourth consecutive season these schools have met. The home team has won all three times so far, including a wild 63-45 game here in Miami last season. That was FIU's highest-scoring effort EVER and landed them in the Gasparilla Bowl (where they got blown out by Temple). It was also a game that was a late addition to the schedule. Hurricane Irma caused both teams to cancel games earlier in the season and each needed to add a 12th onto the schedule. Interestingly, UMass was favored by 2. The Minutemen are a better team this year and more experienced, plus I like the revenge factor. Even though they started 0-6 last year, UMass had the first down edge in five of those games. They would go onto beat both Appalachian State and BYU while also playing two SEC teams (Tennessee, Miss State) tough. I like senior QB Andrew Ford and this should be a rare road win for the Minutemen. 10* Massachusetts

8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): Not quite knowing how good Mississippi State really was, I laid off them last week as they were road favorites going into Kansas State. The "Little Apple" is always a tough place for visiting teams, especially ones laying points, but the Bulldogs made quick work of Bill Snyder's Wildcats, demolishing them 31-10. MSU looked every bit the part of a Top 10 team in the country and those in Starkville that believe this could be the third best team in the SEC were made to look real smart. Given that the Bulldogs are off such an impressive road win and laying a big number this week, should I choose to abstain again? I don't think so. Louisiana Lafayette is no match for MSU and I suspect this one will get ugly in a hurry. Lay the points. 

QB Nick Fitzgerald did not even play in MSU's season opener, something that has still yet to be fully explained. But the team certainly didn't need him in a 63-6 whitewashing of FCS Stephen F. Austin. Fitzgerald had a major impact against Kansas State, however, throwing for 154 yards and running for 159 more. Coupled w/ RB Kylin Hill, who had 211 yds rushing last week, this looks to be a vicious offense that'll be tough to contain. Including Fitzgerald, they brough back nine starters from LY when they finished ranked #19 in the country. The defense is also very good, particularly up front, an area that also has plenty of experience. The spread doesn't concern me as I expect Fitzgerald to complete a far higher percentage of his throws this week against a much weaker defense.

Louisiana has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, but they could get a month and it still wouldn't be enough to compete. The Ragin Cajuns beat Grambling in the opener, 49-17, but this is obviously a monumental step up in class for a team that has a 1st year head coach. The defense has only three starters back from last year, so it's going to be really tough to keep Mississippi State from scoring and Louisiana's own offense simply isn't going to be able to trade scores here. Something else that's tough is former Louisiana HC Mark Hudspeth is now the associate HC at MSU and that gives the Bulldogs a pretty clear insight into the players they'll be facing. But they don't need Hudspeth to let them know they're significantly better. That's already known and will be apparent Saturday night. 8* Mississippi State

8* Nevada (7:00 ET): Nevada has to be extremely disappointed with last week's showing in Nashville. They were blown out by Vanderbilt as 9.5-pt dogs, losing 41-10. Things really got away from the Wolfpack late as they were outscored 24-0 in the second half. Four turnovers certainly didn't help matters, especially considering they led to 21 Vandy points. The performance was a stark contrast to the team's season-opening win over Portland State where they scored 72 points. Granted, Portland State is a FCS school, but I (and I think they) definitely expected a better performance in that second game. Luckily, they're back in Reno this week and facing an Oregon State team that is getting a shocking amount of respect given they haven't won a road game since 2014! Lay the short number. 

Oregon State is on the short list for worst Power 5 team in the country. Even 40 points from the oddsmakers couldn't help them cover in Week 1 at Ohio State as they gave up 77 points to the Buckeyes. Last week brought the first win of the Jonathan Smith era, but it was a FCS opponent (Southern Utah) at home. And the Beavers' defense still surrendered a ghastly 488 yards in the win. The last time Oregon State beat a FBS team was the 2016 finale against Oregon, who was a lame duck (pun intended!) for a coach about to get fired. OSU was a double digit dog in eight of its final nine games last year, the lone exception coming in Corvallis. I know Nevada was only a 3-win team itself a year ago, but this is an awful lot of respect for a Beavers team that - again - HAS NOT WON A ROAD GAME SINCE 2014! They are 0-18 SU since then and have never been closer than a touchdown! Two-thirds of the losses have been by at least three touchdowns.

Like I said last week, Nevada should improve this season for second year HC Jay Norvell. Of their nine wins the L3 seasons, eight have come here at Mackay Stadium. The offense we see Saturday night will more closely resemble what we saw vs. Portland State than what we saw vs. Vanderbilt. The best news for the Wolfpack coming out last week is that they won't have to face another SEC defense the remainder of the year. This is an opportunity that they should relish as the program's last win over a Power 5 team came back in 2014 vs. Washington State. Senior QB Ty Gangi posted the third worst QBR in any start of his career last week and should rebound against what I've already said is a much weaker defense. A "hidden" edge for the Wolfpack in this game is that they lead all FBS teams w/ an average of 27 yards per punt return. 8* Nevada

10* Troy (12:00 ET): This is both a tricky and tough spot for Nebraska. Tricky in the sense that it's an early start time in Lincoln against a pretty good football team. Tough in the sense that it sure will be difficult to get over losing last week in Scott Frost's home debut. The Cornhuskers fell as a three-point favorite, 33-28 to Colorado, giving up the game-winning touchdown w/ just over a minute to play. It was a game Nebraska outgained its opponent, 565-395, only to be undone by an ugly -3 turnover margin. It wasn't just HC Frost's debut that they lost, though. They also lost starting QB Adrian Martinez to a knee injury and he looks to be questionable at best for this game. Nebraska has covered just 1 of the last 5 times it has been a double digit fave of three touchdowns or less and is 3-10 ATS its L13 home games. I don't get why this spread has moved the way it has. Troy is 8-3 ATS its L11 road games, so take the points. 

It's been a bit of a "baptism by fire" for Frost at his alma mater. He's already lost more games here than he did all of last season w/ UCF. The Cornhuskers' season opener (vs. Akron) had to be cancelled due to weather. That made the Colorado game even tougher as the 'Huskers had to play a quality opponent in their very 1st game under a new head coach. They looked good early, but the Martinez injury is when things turned. Remember that two different QB's transferred out of the program once Martinez was named the starter late in the summer. This leaves the very inexperienced Andrew Bunch, a sophomore walk-on, at the helm. Note that if somehow Martinez were to play, this selection still stands. I wouldn't expect him to very effective a week removed from injuring his knee. 

Troy went 11-2 SU last year and tied Appalachian State for the regular season Sun Belt title. This season got off to an auspicious start w/ a 56-20 loss at home to Boise State. I suspect that has played a significant role in this line being higher than it should. But Boise State is a better team than Nebraska. The Trojans righted the ship last week w/ a 59-7 beatdown of Florida A&M as they forced four turnovers and had a 477-287 edge in total yards w/ twice as many first downs (26-13). Turnovers are what hurt Troy vs. Boise State (had four of their own) and QB Kaleb Barker was making his first start. Barker is completing 65% of his passes so far. Neal Brown (4th season as HC) will have his team ready for this one. 10* Troy

THIS IS NO LONGER A PLAY DUE TO HURRICANE FLORENCE

8* Arizona State (10:45 ET): The Herm Edwards hire has been met w/ great skepticism, at least outside of Tempe. Herm has been away from coaching for awhile (10 years!) and his last involvement w/ the college game was 1989 as a defensive coordinator @ San Jose State! But the Sun Devils' debut under Edwards definitely saw them "play to win the game" as they blew out UTSA 49-7. However, Edwards didn't seem all that impressed. "I didn't like what I was watching a lot of times," he said afterwards. I like that kind of reaction from a new HC despite holding the opposition to 220 total yards (lots of tackles for loss) and the QB turning in one of his better career performances. On the flip side, Michigan State did not look good in its season opener, barely escaping Utah State at home. 

There's no doubt that the respective results last week have contributed to this line shrinking some. But it was probably too high to begin with. Tempe is not a fun place to play if you're the visitor, especially in these late night affairs. Just ask Washington, who came in here ranked #5 last year (and unbeaten) and lost 13-7. The Huskies weren't the only ranked team to fall at Sun Devil Stadium last year. Two weeks prior, the same thing happened to Oregon. The Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS as a home dog the L2 seasons, pulling FOUR outright upsets. QB Wilkins, now a senior, threw 4 TD passes last week (career-high) and for 237 yds w/o an interception. Given how Utah State was able to move the ball last week (344 total yds) on the Spartans, I expect the Sun Devils to be able to do the same. 

Michigan State trailed Utah State 31-30 w/ just under five minutes to go. They then drove the ball 75 yards for a TD to avoid the upset. But throughout the game, they never really could pull away from the Aggies. Sure, a pick six heavily contributed to Utah State getting back in that game. But I wasn't all that impressed w/ Sparty QB Brian Lewerke overall. Over the past three seasons, Michigan State is a horrific 1-8 ATS as a road favorite. The lone cover came in last year's reg season finale at Rutgers. There have been five outright upsets in that stretch, granted three of them coming in that "lost" 3-9 season of 2016. But still, this spot just screams "potential upset" and I'll ride Coach Herm in what could be a statement game for him. 8* Arizona State 

10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Under the bright lights at College Station, I believe A&M is set to shine in their first real test under HC Jimbo Fisher. Fisher is of course quite familiar w/ the opponent, Clemson, having served all those years on the Florida State sideline. Fisher's FSU teams went 4-4 against Clemson, though things had turned near the end of his tenure in Tallahassee w/ the Noles losing each of the L3 years. Still, Fisher knows what he's up against Saturday night and while that's one of the best teams in all of college football, look for the Aggies to stay within this generous number. Even in the dying days of the Kevin Sumlin era in College Station, A&M still managed to go 2-0 ATS as DD home dogs last year. Before that, it had been some time since they'd been getting 10 or more here at Kyle Field. Take the points.

Clemson is on everyone's shortlist for the College Football Playoff and why wouldn't they be seeing as they've gotten there each of the last three seasons. They enter 2018 w/ a bit of controversy on their hands though as they are playing two QB's - Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence. Said Dabo Swinney, "We definitely will play both quarterbacks," Swinney said. "There's no doubt about that. Nothing happened [against Furman] to warrant not playing both those guys." It wasn't a big deal against overmatched Furman, but playing two QB's can be an unneeded distraction. That's why Nick Saban quickly dealt away the idea down in Tuscaloosa. This just seems like a really large number to lay on the road, especially in an unfamiliar setting. 

A&M's first game went about as easy as Clemson's did. The Aggies won Fisher's debut 59-7 over Northwestern State w/ a 758-251 edge in total yards. Similarly, Clemson had no problem w/ Furman, beating them 48-7 w/ a 531-136 edge in total yards. But those were both tune-ups. Now we're about to find out what both sides are truly made of. We're pretty sure that Clemson is good, but I think A&M is also better than they're being given credit for. Fisher likes both his offensive and defensive lines and I believe playing well in the trenches keeps the Aggies in the game the whole way. This spread should be closer to a touchdown, in my estimation. 10* Texas A&M 

10* Iowa (5:00 ET): The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has typically been closely contested as five of the past seven meetings have been decided by six points or less. That would lead one to believe that the underdog is typically the "right side" in this rivalry, but note that the dog has actually covered only once in the past five years. Last year, Iowa won 44-41 in overtime after a late TD drive tied things up at the end of regulation. It was their third straight win over their main in-state rival. However, ISU still ended up finishing the year at 8-5 SU, same as the Hawkeyes. The Cyclones were a big surprise in the Big 12 and this year finds expectations a lot higher than normal in Ames (Matt Campbell's third year here). But I'm a bit concerned on how last week's cancellation (weather) will affect this team, which I am banking on regressing in 2018 anyway. 

Iowa State pulled a lot of upsets last season. They were an underdog in all but two conference games, the exceptions being the obvious ones (against Kansas and Baylor). This year's squad isn't quite as experienced and probably won't have a +10 turnover margin like 2017. Turnovers have actually been a MAJOR issue for the Cyclones in recent years vs. Iowa. They have committed 22 of them in the last nine meetings, leading to 68 Iowa points. That's roughly a quarter of all scoring from the Hawkeyes in those nine games. Their last visit here to Iowa City (two years ago) did not go well as they lost 42-3 in Campbell's second game. Despite the feel of Campbell having this program trending in a positive direction, I'm banking on ISU being somewhat of a disappointment in 2018. 

Kinnick Stadium (I visited there over the summer) is not an easy place to play. Just ask Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeyes are 15-5 SU at home the L3 years after dismantling Northern Illinois last week 33-7. That was a game where a LOT of people liked the underdog. I've got the Hawkeyes finishing second in the Big 10 West this year (behind Wisconsin obviously) as this should be a better team than last year. As I briefly mentioned above, Iowa State did not play last week as their scheduled game vs. South Dakota State was cancelled due to the weather. Not getting a game under their belt could end up costing them here as Iowa looked good and ready to go in their opener. I get that Iowa State was a great underdog last season, but typically we see that kind of performance regress the following season. 10* Iowa 

8* South Carolina (3:30 ET): This game is back to being played on the second weekend of the season after a couple year hiatus. These teams finished 1-2 in the SEC East last year (UGA obviously #1), but oddsmakers had it as a total mismatch w/ UGA favored by 23 in Athens. The Bulldogs did win comfortably, but "only" by two touchdowns as it was the Gamecocks who covered the spread. It was UGA's third straight double digit win in the rivalry, and it looks like the same is being expected Saturday. But this is a lot of points to lay on the SEC road and I think Will Muschamp's defense keeps his team in this one. Take the points as the home team is on a 5-1 run in this series. 

Georgia was a pointspread juggernaut LY, covering 11 of its 15 games, including the National Title Game LOSS to Alabama. They opened #3 this season (behind Bama and Clemson) and clobbered Austin Peay 45-0 w/ a 508-152 edge in total yards. That really doesn't tell us much about this team. This team was pretty fortunate last year in that most of their "hard" games were at home. Their one regular season road game against a ranked opponent was a one-point win over Notre Dame. Something to watch here is that the 'Dawgs have only five returning starters on defense. South Carolina's offense is a lot more talented this year w/ both WR Deebo Samuel and RB Rico Dowdle back from injuries. Neither played in last year's game. 

Like Georgia, South Carolina's first game tells us little about what is yet to come. They blew out Coastal Carolina 49-15 and now find themselves ranked in the Top 25. Dowdle had 100 yards on 15 carries and the Gamecocks dominated (as you'd expect) w/ a 557-238 edge in total yards. This is easily the biggest home game of the Muschamp era (third year here), so expect a highly motivated underdog Saturday afternoon. It's also the national TV game on CBS. As good as Georgia may be, I don't see them coming in and blowing South Carolina out. To me, Georgia by about a touchdown seems like a pretty likely scenario, which means taking the points is the way to go here. 8* South Carolina

8* Arkansas State (3:30 ET): You have to tip your cap to Nick Saban for the job done in yet another neutral site season opener. Last week's 51-14 demolition of Louisville (in Orlando) improved Saban to a perfect 12-0 SU (and 11-1 ATS) in season openers since coming to Tuscaloosa and the L8 wins have all come at neutral sites against Power 5 programs. He's covered the spot in seven of those. But as impressive as Bama has been in those games, they've been equally as disappointing the following week - at least to bettors. They are 0-6 ATS (w/ one no-action) in Week 2 the past seven years as they are almost always laying a big number in a game that just screams out "flat spot." It's the same setup this year and this is a play on the situation moreso than the points. Take Arkansas State plus the points. 

Arkansas State won its opener 48-21 over Southeast Missouri State. QB Justice Hansen threw 6 TD passes, all to different receivers, and completed 26 of 36 pass attempts for 423 yards. But the Red Wolves really didn't break away until the 3Q when they found the end zone four times. Dahu Green was NOT one of the six receivers who caught a TD pass from Hansen, nor will he be catching one the rest of the season as his 2018 is now over due to a broken ankle. Green was NOT a part of the team last year though (sat out as a transfer) when ASU went 7-5 SU, which was actually a DOWN year for them. This is a program that has been to seven straight bowls despite a myriad of coaching changes. While they're clearly NOT on Alabama's level, the Red Wolves are more than capable of staying within this huge number. 

I don't see Alabama trying to run up the score here. They proved their point against Louisville and have the SEC opener next week at Ole Miss (always a tricky place for Saban). The QB situation seems to have worked itself out here w/ Taovailoa predictably beating out Hurts to be the starter. But no matter who's started for the Crimson Tide, they have consistently failed laying these big numbers at the betting window in Week 2. Last year, they were 43-point chalk against Fresno State and won "only" 41-10 (I had FSU!). That was w/o a SEC game on deck. The Tide's defense is young on the backend (secondary), which should allow Hansen and the Arkansas State offense to make enough plays to stay comfortably within this spread. 8* Arkansas State

8* Air Force (2:00 ET): FAU looked shockingly ill-prepared for its season opener at Oklahoma to the point it appeared the team had been simply reading its own press clippings and not practicing over the summer. They lost 63-14, getting outgained 650-324 in the process. The game was 42-0 at halftime and could have been a lot worse had the Sooners not taken their foot off the gas pedal in the 2H. FAU also didn't score until late in the third quarter and their second TD came w/ just over four minutes to go in the game. As ugly as that display was, things won't get any easier this week as they have to turn around and defend the triple option of Air Force. Given how putrid the Owls' defense looked last Saturday, I give the AFA an excellent shot at coming in and pulling the outright upset. Take the points. 

Service academies always seem to make for good underdogs and Air Force has generally been no exception. They are 7-2 ATS in the L3 years as a road dog. Last week, they were a favorite and crushed Stony Brook 38-0. The Falcons' defense was not impressed w/ what the Sea Wolves had to offer, holding them to just 75 yards and 4 first downs for the game. It marked the 12th consecutive season that the AFA opened the season w/ a win over a FCS opponent at home. This week is going to be tougher, but I don't expect the contingent from Colorado Springs will be intimidated. To the contrary, I expect them to be highly motivated. The last three seasons have seen this team go 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS against non-conference competition. 

Florida Atlantic was one of the breakout teams in college football last season, going 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. It will now be interesting to see how they perform going from the "hunter" to the "hunted." I don't know what to make of last week's dreadful showing, other than to say it's looking like a surefire decline under HC Lane Kiffin in year two. The Owls were the most experienced team in the country LY, paving the way for massive improvement. They did bring back 10 starters on defense for this season, but some good that did them last week. They've got only five starters back on offense and looked totally one dimensional LW w/ RB Devin Singletary the only real threat. Air Force has covered 9 of the past 10 times it has been a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* Air Force

8* Nevada (12:00 ET): All summer long, Vanderbilt had to hear how Middle Tennessee was on "their level." Odds reflected that belief as the Commodores were only slight favorites, at home, going into last Saturday's Week 1 matchup. So much for that belief. The Commies easily dispatched of the Blue Raiders, winning 35-7 and covering the spread easily as 3.5-pt favorites. But now comes a potential "trap spot" as they're off a win over an in-state "rival" and have Notre Dame on deck. They may have gotten the job done last week, but Vandy has never really been a good choice as a favorite, going just 2-8 ATS the L10x it has been asked to lay between 7.5 and 10 pts at home. They're rarely even in this price range and Nevada is a dangerous dog. Take the points. 

Nevada hung 72 points on an overmatched Portland State squad last week, a nice start after going just 3-9 SU last season. I figure they're a lock to improve in the Mt West as this is Jay Norvell's second season and he's got seven returning starters on offense as opposed to the four he had last year. Things won't be as easy this week compared to last, but it won't have to be in the underdog role. Something else to consider here is that Nevada has had an extra day to prepare as their season opener took place last Friday. They rolled up 636 yards of total offense against Portland State and should be highly motivated going into "SEC country" for the 1st time since 2015 and just the fifth time ever. 

As lopsided as the game ended up being on the scoreboard, Vandy really didn't pull away until late against MTSU. A defensive TD in the second quarter is what swung the game as it was tied 7-7 at that point. After a 58-yard TD drive to open the game, Vandy's offense struggled to move the ball for the rest of the 1st half, gaining just 31 more yards. Their pass defense was also suspect, giving up 100 yds through the air in the 1st quarter alone. A +2 turnover margin obviously helped as well. Nevada QB Ty Gangi threw for 342 yards in the opener. While that obviously came against an inferior defense, he should put up solid numbers again in this one. Vandy is 1-4 ATS following its previous 5 SU wins and isn't as lucky as a last week when the number is so short. Look for the pointspread to be a factor in this one. 8* Nevada 

8* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): I have Florida State improving this season (went 7-6 SU LY), but this is a tough number to lay in the 1st game of the season. It's a new coaching staff in Talahassee w/ Willie Taggart replacing Jimbo FIsher, who elected to bolt to the greener pastures of Texas A&M. Taggart isn't walking into a bad situation by any means (he inherits TWO QB's w/ 12+ career starts); I'm just a little leery of his team being favored by this much in the first game, against a conference foe no less. Va Tech comes in off a 9-4 SU season and will have to replace a number of key players from one of the top defenses in the country a year ago. But they are ranked right behind FSU in the initial Top 25 poll, just one spot back at #20. I'm going to take the points here. 

Deondre Francois has been named the starting QB here for Florida State. If you recall, he was injuried in LY's season opener vs. Alabama, which is really what started the Seminoles' downfall. The team ended up losing six games, three as favorites, and barely made a bowl. Ending the year w/ a 42-16 win over Southern Miss in the Indepedence Bowl is hardly what the faithful had in mind back in August. The pressure is on Taggart to bring the program back to prominence, which should happen in due time. I'm just not sure we should be expecting any kind of "blowout" in the first game, however. The 'Noles are just 4-11 ATS in conference play the past two seasons. 

I was surprised to find that these schools last met all the way back in 2012. They're not in the same division, but still, you might have expected a matchup in an ACC Championship Game. But w/ Clemson having passed FSU by in the Atlantic, the Noles haven't even won their division since 2014. Va Tech lost to Clemson in the 2016 ACC Title Game, HC Justin Fuente's first season in Blacksburg. They failed to get back last year even though they ended up losing the same number of overall games (4). Josh Jackson returns at QB for the Hokies and they should be better offensively than last season. Defensively, they likely won't be as strong due to all the departures, but they traditionally field a strong stop unit, year in and year out. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Miami FL (7:30 ET): I don't think that LSU is going to very good this year. Actually, let me rephrase. I don't think they'll perform up to the usual standard set down in the Bayou. HC Ed Orgeron enters 2018 firmly on the hot season despite having just one full season under his belt and winning nine games. That's life in the SEC West though and the Tigers figure to finish closer to the bottom of the division than to the top (where Alabama is king). Miami won its division last year, the ACC Coastal, but was too banged up to compete w/ Clemson in the Conference Championship. Mark Richt has a lot more optimism surrounding him than Orgeron does as his first year was the Hurricanes' best in a long time. I'll lay the points in this one. 

These schools have met just twice in the past 30 years. Both were blowouts coming at a time when one program (and not the other) was dominant. Miami won 44-3 back in 1988 while LSU returned the favor w/ a 40-3 beatdown in the 2005 Peach Bowl. This one looks a lot more even on paper as both come in ranked in the Top 25. But Miami is a top 10 team (#8) while LSU seemed to slide into the backend of the poll based on repuation alone. The Tigers have just four seniors in the starting lineup (that's both sides of the ball) and are one of the least experienced teams in the entire country. Their QB (Joe Burrow) is a transfer that didn't even start practicing w/ the team until the Spring. 

On the flip side, Miami has a fifth-year senior QB in Malik Rosier. They have 14 returning starters overall and are far more experienced up and down the roster. I think LSU's revamped offense is going to really struggle in this game. They don't have a great running back to lean on like in year's past and will struggle to move the chains in this one. 10* Miami FL

8* BYU (10:45 ET): They're not used to having "down" seasons in Provo, but Brigham Young definitely had one in 2017, going just 4-9 SU. That just doesn't happen around here as it was the program's first losing season in a LONG time. Expect HC Kalani Sitake to turn things around for 2018, however, despite another relatively challenging schedule. In addition to this game, the Cougars will pay visits to Wisconsin, Washington and Boise State this year. For this opener w/ Arizona, I expect them to have the advantage in the trenches and that will go a long way in covering as a double digit dog. Take the points. 

The reason I'm so optimistic about BYU's prospects up front in this game is the reports I'm hearing out of camp. The offensive line looks to be a major weakness for Arizona as it isn't particularly big or experienced, two things that the BYU defensive line is. There is a ton of optimism in Tucson right now w/ Kevin Sumlin replacing Rich Rodriguez. QB Khalil Tate was one of the most exciting players in college football last season. But the Wildcats closed the season by losing four of the last five games as defenses started to get more film on him. They didn't exactly play the most challenging Pac 12 schedule last year, avoiding both Stanford and Washington from the North Division. The defense has nine starters back, but hasn't allowed fewer than 34 PPG any of the last three seasons.

Three of the six starters lost in the desert are along that offensive line. BYU has the edge defensively in this matchup, which is something you have to like when getting double digits. BYU QB Tanner Mangum is now a senior and should improve under a new OC whose system is a better fit for his talents. As excited as the Arizona fanbase might be about Sumlin, Texas A&M couldn't wait to run him out of town as he never could replicate that first season (2012) where he went 11-2 SU. Every subsquent year saw A&M win fewer or the same number of games as the previous one. The Aggies also traditionally fielded bad defenses under Sumlin. The team he inherits here isn't as talented as his best A&M teams. 8* BYU

8* Michigan (7:30 ET): One of College Football's more storied rivalries is renewed on this first weekend of the 2018 season and I, for one, can't wait. This is a real "do or die" season for Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh as his Wolverines fell to 8-5 SU last season (lost final three games). He's yet to beat rival Ohio State and is a combined 1-5 SU against the Buckeyes and Michigan's "other" rival, Michigan State. Quite simply, progress HAS to be made in Ann Arbor in 2018. As for Notre Dame, they are coming off a 10-3 season and at one point were 8-1 SU and ranked #3 in the country. Expectations are sky high in South Bend right now, but I believe the Fighting Irish is poised to let down the faithful w/ a season-opening loss Saturday night. 

When he was the HC at Stanford, Harbaugh was fortunate to have Andrew Luck. When he made the jump to the NFL, he made both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick temporary stars. Here in Ann Arbor, he's yet to really have a quality signal-caller. That changes this year w/ Shea Patterson's arrival. Patterson was poached from Ole Miss in the wake of Hugh Freeze's disgraceful exit. Since the day he first stepped on campus, Patterson immediately became the best QB the Wolverines have had during Harbaugh's tenure. Surrounding Patterson is an experienced team w/ 17 returning starters. The defense is going to be very good, possibly the best in the entire country. Last year, despite only ONE returning starter, Don Brown's group yielded just 271 yards and 18.8 points per game. This year, they have 14 of the top 16 tacklers back and have - on paper - the best secondary in the entire country. Points will be hard to come by against Michigan this year. 

Notre Dame should also have a good defense w/ nine returning starters back on that side of the ball. They didn't allow any of their first eight opponents to score more than 20 pts a season ago. But then they allowed 37+ in three of the final four regular season games. I also question the offense. In their three losses last year (to Georgia, Miami and Stanford), the Irish could manage only 19, 8 and 20 pts. They will be facng an even stronger defensive unit here. After jumping from four to 10 wins last year, I do NOT see ND matching their win total from '17. As big as this game is to Brian Kelly's tenure, I get the feeling that it's "all on the line" here for Harbaugh, who risks losing the fanbase w/ a fourth straight loss. Look for the Wolverines to pull this one out. 8* Michigan

10* Miami OH (3:30 ET): This was a matchup I played on the opening week of last season. Only I took Marshall as a slight home favorite and they were able to win and cover in a 31-26 final. This year, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" and I'm going w/ Miami in a revenge spot. The role reversal here is actually quite amazing. At this time last year, optimism was high in Oxford where the RedHawks had just become the first team in NCAA history to start a regular season 0-6 and then finish 6-0 (this was 2016). They lost their bowl game that year, but came into '17 thinking MAC East Title. It didn't happen as they finished a disappointing 5-7 SU (no bowl). Meanwhile, I was high on Marshall at this time last year as they were off a disappointing 3-9 SU campaign in '16 and poised to rebound. Sure enough they did as that season opening win over Miami propelled them to an 8-5 SU season. 

This year, it's Miami's turn to improve while Marshall should decline. Sure, the Thundering Herd do bring back 18 starters for HC Doc Holliday. But one of them is NOT QB Chase Litton, who opted to declare for the NFL Draft. Only problem is Litton wasn't drafted! That hurts not just the player (can't come back), but the school as Litton was a 3,000+ yd passer a year ago. Replacing that kind of production will not easy. The job will likely go to Alex Thomson, a 6'5" grad transfer from FCS Wagner. But he's been limited during summer practice as he missed most of the 2017 season due to a shoulder injury. Marshall has a new offensive coordinator as well. I won't be shocked if this team regresses offensively and even more so defensively. Last year, they went from allowing 35.3 PPG all the way down to 19.9.

Miami was unlucky last year as four of their seven losses came by five points or less. One was to Marshall, a game that saw the Thundering Herd score THREE non-offensive touchdowns, yet still need to bat down a Hail Mary attempt on the game's final play. The RedHawks severely outgained the Herd in that game, 429-267. They enter '18 w/ a senior QB (Gus Ragland) and eight returning starters on both sides of the ball. They certainly haven't forgotten how last year's game went down. Getting this meeting at home is huge. Marshall is generally not a good road team, losing 9 of its last 10 road openers. The home team has covered the last six head to head meetings. After cashing Marshall LY, I say it's Miami's "turn" to open 2018 w/ a big win! 10* Miami OH

10* Washington (3:30 ET): This is a huge opening week matchup with CFP implications. The game takes place in Atlanta. Washington enters the year as the favorite to win the Pac 12. Were they to win here, they'll be favored in every remaining game. Auburn is coming off a highly successful season where they won 10 games, including regular season victories over the two SEC teams, Alabama & Georgia, that made the playoff (lost rematch to UGA in SEC Title Game). The Tigers are the slight favorite here despite being ranked slightly lower, but it wasn't always that way. Over the summer, UW opened as a short favorite. I believe Auburn is going to be a bit of a disappointment in 2018 and will gladly take advantage of the line "jumping the fence" here. Go with the Huskies.

Remember that Washington is just two years removed from making the playoff. I called for them to get there in 2016 and will do so again in 2018. Part of the reason I like them so much is they're experienced. Chris Petersen (great coach) has 17 returning starters back and this one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country. The defense should be outstanding again. They allowed only 16.1 PPG a year ago (playing in the Pac 12!), which was fewer than Auburn. They've now allowed 18.8 PPG or fewer each of the last three seasons. On offense, they return Jake Browning at QB and Myles Gaskin at RB, both seniors. I believe that this is Petersen's best team yet, including the one that got to the CFP two years ago. The Huskies are not underdogs very often, so we're looking at a solid value here. 

Auburn is a good team, but I feel that there are some signs pointing down. For starters, they aren't quite as experienced as they were a year ago. With the game being in Atlanta, many will speak of a "homefield advantage" that exists for Auburn. I'm not so sure of that as the Tigers' L2 games came on this very field (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and they lost both games, the SEC Title Game to Auburn and the Peach Bowl to UCF. Jarrett Stidham enters his second year as the starting QB, but he'll be surrounded by new pieces at the skill positions. Kerryon Johnson, the team's leading rusher from a season ago, departed. At receiver, both Eli Stove and Will Hastings tore their ACL's in the spring and thus will be unavailable at the start of the spring. They could overcome that against a lesser opponent to start the season, but not a top 10 one. 10* Washington

8* Oregon State (12:00 ET): To be clear, the Beavers aren't good. But judging by the spread, you probably already knew that. They were probably the worst Power 5 team in the country last season and a case could be made that the same will hold true in 2018. But, given all that has transpired with Ohio State the last few weeks, would you want to lay this number? I wouldn't. Now if Urban Meyer were coaching here, I'd just as soon lay off the game. Meyer, one of the best ever, would be more than capable of motivating Ohio State to win by a ton in this season opener. But Meyer won't be on the sidelines here, nor the next two weeks. That will be the backdrop Saturday afternoon in Columbus as Ryan Day will be acting coach for the Buckeyes. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points.

Oregon State won just one game last season. It was against FCS Portland State. HC Gary Anderson surprisingly resigned midway through the year and it was a lame duck team the rest of the way. Jonathan Smith takes over in Corvallis and obviously has a lot of work to do. The ONLY game the Beavers will be favored to win comes next week, against Southern Utah, another FCS school. I do believe that somewhere along the way the team will pull an upset. It won't be here, mind you, but I do believe the team will come out motivated. The 6'7" Jake Luton has been name the starting QB and there are 15 returning starters. Oregon State may not have been very competitive in 2017, but they had only one loss by more than 31 points and that was the finale against Oregon when most of the players (particularly the seniors) had mentally checked out. 

Ohio State fans always seemed to have a love/hate relationship w/ QB J.T. Barrett. He is now gone and sophomore Dwayne Haskins takes over the starting reigns. Haskins has game experience from last year, including leading the comeback against rival Michigan. But being the starter is an entirely different animal. In the past two season, the Buckeyes are just 1-3 ATS when favored by 31 points or more. Conversely, Oregon State covered both times it has been a dog of 31 or more. Too much has to go right for a team to cover a spread of this magnitude and I just don't see it happening for Ohio State in a season opener w/ Meyer MIA and all the distractions surrounding that. 8* Oregon State 

8* Texas State (12:00 ET): Everett Withers enters his third year as the HC in San Marcos. Texas State obviously has a lot of work to do as they've won just 2 games each of his first two years on the job. But the good news is that coaches typically hit their stride in year three as they've done the vast majority of the recruiting. This should be the best Bobcats' team we've seen under Withers. Turnover margin was a killer for Texas State last season (-15) as I didn't think they were as bad as the numbers might suggest - on either side of the ball. I like the points here as Rutgers rarely is favored by this many - against anybody. Chris Ash is also entering his third year as HC of the Scarlet Knights, but this will be just the fifth time his team has been favored to win! Take the points. 

Two of the four times Rutgers was previously favored under Ash came against FCS schools. This will be the 1st time being favored by double digits against a FCS school. Last year, the Scarlet Knights lost outright - here at home - to Eastern Michigan. They have just one double digit win in Ash's tenure, that coming LY at Illinois, 35-24. So history isn't exactly on the Scarlet Knights side heading into the season opener. Their depth on the defensive end was weakened by a credit card scandal. An offense that put up only 18.0 PPG a year ago isn't exactly built to cover large spreads. Don't discount the notion that the players may be looking ahead to next week's tilt at Ohio State (who won't have Urban Meyer) either. 

Texas State's numbers defensively were not good last year. They ranked near the bottom nationally, but should be much improved in 2018. The run defense was actually around the top 40 last season, so their already fine in that regard. The talk coming out of camp is that the secondary will be the most improved position group on the team. If that's the case, the Bobcats should be in fine shape here. Rutgers will be starting a true freshman at QB Saturday, Arthur Sitkowski, a 4-star recruit. Again, and this has been a theme throughout this three-game report, I'm just not interested in laying double digits with a first time starter at the most important position. Two years ago, in Withers' first game, Texas State shocked Ohio as 20-pt road underdogs. I think they'll be more than competitive here. 8* Texas State

8* Florida Atlantic (12:00 ET): Under the tutiledge of Lane Kiffin, FAU took the College Football world by storm last year. They went 11-3, including 8-0 in Conference USA where they were heads and shoulders above every other team. A lot of people, myself included, were on that bandwagon as the Owls entered last season as the most experienced team in the country. They rewarded their backers by going 10-4 ATS at the betting window. Now they'll enter 2018 as the favorite not only to win C-USA, but also to possibly represent the "Group of 5" in a "New Year's Six" Bowl Game. I believe a decline from LY is all but inevitable, but that doesn't mean I think they're three touchdowns worse than Oklahoma, a team w/ its own question marks. Take the points here.

Like Kiffin, Lincoln Riley walked into an ideal situation his 1st year on the job. He took over for the legendary Bob Stoops, but was inheriting a fairly experienced Sooners' squad led by eventual Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is now gone and we'll get a chance - for the 1st time - to see how Riley's offense operates w/o him. My guess is that things will work themselves out in Norman. But in the first game? Kyler Murray is the replacement at QB and won't come close to Mayfield's production of a season ago. Then there is the losses sustained on the defensive side of the ball. This will be far from a dominant group and there really isn't a standout player. The OU defense surrendered 27.1 PPG a year ago, but was consistently bailed out by an offense that averaged 40+ PPG for a third straight year. It'll take a lot of points to cover this spread and I'm not sure OU is capable at this point. 

FAU also has to replace LY's starting QB (Jason Driskell). Heading into Saturday, Kiffin is being rather coy about just who that replacement will be. It'll be one of two transfers: either Chris Robinson, ironically from Oklahoma, or DeAndre Johnson from Florida State. The issue of not know which QB to prepare for will hurt the OU defense. Whomever the QB is for FAU can lean on RB Devin Singletary, who ran for 1922 yards and 32 touchdowns last season. Remember that the Sooners defense was gashed badly by Georgia in LY's College Football Playoff. FAU also returns 10 starters on defense, so they will be strong on that side of the ball. I look for the underdog to score enough to stay well within this generous opening week number. 8* Florida Atlantic

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): Willie Fritz is hoping to do at Tulane what Dave Clawson has already accomplished at Wake Forest. Fritz will be entering his third year coaching the Green Wave. He has yet to make a bowl game (were very close LY), but this will be his best team yet. Clawson went 3-9 SU in each of his first two-seasons in Winston-Salem, but then jumped to 7 and 8 wins each of the last two years, making a bowl both times. The Demon Deacons were a bit of an overachiever though last year as they went 4-4 in ACC play despite never being favored by more than one point in any game. As for Tulane, they took on nine bowl eligible teams and finished 5-7 SU. Their season came to an end when SMU stopped them at the goal line in a 41-38 loss in the regular season finale. 

Tulane is used to opening the season on a Thursday night. This will be the fifth time in the last six years that they have done so. Two years ago, in Fritz's very 1st game, they lost 7-3 at Wake Forest. So this is technically a revenge spot. Last year's opener was a lot easier as they routed FCS Grambling St 43-14. They played a lot of close games in 2017 w/ seven decided by 7 pts or less. Only three times did they lose by double digits and all took place on the road. One was at Oklahoma. So it's key for the Green Wave to get this game at home. Their largest loss at Yulman Stadium last year was six points. When Fritz came here three years ago, he installed the spread option, but didn't have the right personnel. Now he does and w/ nine starters back, including a senior QB (Jonathan Banks), this should be Tulane's best offense under HC Fritz. 

Wake Forest plays in the tough ACC Atlantic. After finishing in a three-way tie for third place in 2017, I envision a drop this year. With four-year starter John Wolford having graduated and his presumed replacement Kendall Hinton, Jr suspended, the Demon Deacons will enter the season opener w/ a true frosh (Sam Hartman) at QB. On the road, mind you. Defensively, stopping the run was not this team's forte in 2017 (allowed almost 190 YPG), so I expect them to struggle against the spread option. This will be just the third time under Clawson that Wake is a road favorite and they've gone 0-2 ATS previously. Take the points. 8* Tulane

10* Minnesota (7:00 ET): What a horrific spot this is for New Mexico State. The team just played Saturday and looked terrible in a 29-7 (home) loss to Wyoming. Thus, I wish them luck having to visit a Power 5 school tonight. The Aggies were a really nice story in 2017 as they made (and won!) their first bowl game in 57 years (finished the season 7-6 SU). But now reality is about to set in. They were severely outclassed by a Wyoming team that had to replace a first round draft pick at QB (Josh Allen), getting outgained 449-135. The Aggies didn't even score until 1:16 left in the game and they had just seven first downs. This cross-country flight shapes up as a disastrous spot and I'm undaunted when it comes to laying the points. 

PJ Fleck came to Minnesota last year w/ a lot of hype as he'd just led Western Michigan to a New Year's Six Bowl Game. Obviously, life in the Big 10 is a lot tougher. The Gophers opened 2017 at 3-0, but lost seven of their final nine games. They should be improved this season. Note that in his second year at WMU, Fleck led his team to a seven-win improvement. That won't happen here, but the Gophers figure to at least be a factor in the Big 10 West. They'll get better QB play this year and are more experienced. Defensively, they should have little problem against an anemic NMSU attack that couldn't muster anything in the opener.

After factoring in sacks, NMSU had -9 yards rushing last week. RB Jason Huntley averaged just 2.4 yards per carry. That simply won't get it done against anybody. Now with the team likely to fall behind big here, look for the Aggies' offense to become pretty one-dimensional. Fleck understands the importance of starting the season strong and isn't likely to take his foot off the gas here. It helps that New Mexico State figures to be fatigued in the second half, playing its second game in five days after a cross-country trip. Defensively, NMSU figures to have its hands full stopping WR Tyler Johnson. I just don't see anyway the underdog keeps this one close after looking so bad in that first game. 10* Minnesota

10* Hawaii (7:30 ET): Neither of these teams were very profitable at the betting window last season. For Colorado State, that was something new. The Rams had gone 9-4 ATS in 2016, but dropped down to 4-9 ATS in '17, despite posting the same 7-6 straight up record as the year before. HC Mike Bobo enters his fourth season at Fort Collins and has gone 7-6 SU every season. Every season has ended w/ a bowl loss. Over in the MWC's West Division, Hawaii hasn't been profitable - or particularly good on the field - for some time now. Last year, they went 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS. The Warriors are now just 11-26-2 at the betting window the L3 seasons w/ the last two coming w/ Nick Rolovich at the helm. As a result, they're a big underdog for this conference opener. 

Hawaii enters 2018 as one of the least experienced teams in the entire country and has just nine returning starters. They ended last season by losing five straight as well as 9 of their last 10 games. So there isn't a ton of optimism out on the island surrounding this team. However, I do expect an improvement in wins despite a decent amt of talent having transferred out. They will run the run and shoot on offense and a big key here is that WR John Ursua will be back on the field. Ursua was lost to injury in the middle of the season last year. At the time, he had been averaging 131.8 yards and 9.3 catches per game. So he's a big-time weapon for an offense that averaged only 22.8 PPG a year ago. The overall team's decline coincided w/ Ursua's injury, which should not be a surprise.

Since becoming an official member of the Mt West Conference, Hawaii hasn't had much luck against CSU. They've lost all four meetings as conference rivals, including 51-21 LY as 6-pt home dogs. In fact, they're just 1-10 SU the L11 meetings w/ CSU, predating their time in the MWC. Incredibly, Hawaii has won just one time in the Mt Time Zone since 2012! However, the big key here is that the Rams also enter 2018 just as inexperienced as Hawaii. The have the same number of returning starters (9) and will need to find a way to replace a four-year starter at QB (Nick Stevens). Another key is that Bobo has been away from the team due to health concerns (numbness in feet). As the offense's primary playcaller, that's a tough situation. He was hospitalized less than two weeks ago and it was only recently determined (as in Wednesday) that he could be on the sidelines Saturday! The QB situation is also dicey w/ Collin Hill not yet cleared to return. On the defensive side of the ball, there's been massive turnover within the coaching staff. In my opinion, this is way too many points for an inexperienced team to lay in its first game, especially w/ so many major question marks at key spots. 10* Hawaii 

10* Alabama (8:45 ET): It's an all-SEC National Championship Game and so it's only appropriate that it will be played in Atlanta. Strangely enough, Alabama and Georgia don't play all that often. This will be just the fifth meeting in the Nick Saban-era (and only the 3rd since '09) and first w/ his fmr DC Kirby Smart as Georgia HC. UGA last beat 'Bama in '07 (Saban's 1st year) and hasn't visited Tuscaloosa since. The last meeting, held two seasons ago in Athens, was won by the Crimson Tide 38-10, as 1.5-pt dogs. The Tide also beat the 'Dawgs here in Atlanta (in the Georgia Dome) back in the 2012 SEC Championship. Ironically, Bama has played the team they just ousted from the playoff, Clemson, more times in the L3 seasons than they have this conference rival. So this is really nothing like the last all-SEC National Champ Game, Bama vs. LSU, back in '11. 

Alabama beat Clemson in the CFB Semifinal (Sugar Bowl), 24-6, as 3.5-pt favorites. That was a heavily hyped revenge game from LY's Champ Game and the end of a compelling trilogy. Compared to most games, and particularly UGA's Rose Bowl win over Oklahoma (more on that later), Bama-Clemson III was a real defensive affair. The Tide held the Tigers to just 188 total yards (gained only 261 themselves). A late INT return made the final score seem more lopsided than the game actually was (10-6 game late in 3Q). That said, Bama remains the dominant force in College Football. They are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, key because UGA is #2! The key is they allow 4.6 PPG fewer than the Bulldogs. In 9 of 13 games, they've allowed 10 pts or less. This is a team that has won 40 of its last 43 games straight up, including 24 of 26 against the SEC. They've won 11 straight games on turf (9-2 ATS). 

While playing for the National Championship has become "old hat" for Saban and Alabama, Georgia is gunning for its 1st title since 1980, the days of Herschel Walker! Don't be surprised if the spot is a little "big for them." QB Jake Fromm is a true frosh and no team has won a Nat'l Title w/ a true frosh as its starting QB since '85. Yes, they were facing Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, but the defense giving up 48 pts and 531 total yds is a little concerning, no? Also, there's the matter of Smart being a Saban disciple. Saban is 11-0 SU all-time against former assistants w/ every game decided by at least two touchdowns. Talk about the teacher knowing how to beat the student. Yes, these teams are built similarly, but Bama is better and used to the stage. I don't make a habit of betting against Nick Saban and won't here. Remember that Georgia did lose at Auburn earlier this year, 40-17. 10* Alabama

8* Over Alabama/Georgia (8:45 ET): When you have the two top defenses in the country (in terms of efficiency) and two of the top four in points allowed per game (Bama #1, UGA #4), then Under is the natural inclination when it comes to betting the total. Alabama's Sugar Bowl win over Clemson was a real "defensive affair" w/ the Crimson Tide posting season lows in both total yards and yards per play. One-third of their plays went for zero or negative yards. Over the eight quarters, the Tide have scored just four touchdowns on 23 drives. Facing a pretty comparable defense in Monday night's Championship Game, another "ugly" affair has to be on tap, right? After all, Bama's defense was dominant as ever against Clemson, holding them to just 6 points and 188 total yards.

Not so fast, my friend! Georgia's thrilling Rose Bowl victory over Oklahoma (best Rose Bowl ever?) was no "defensive affair" as the 'Dawgs prevailed 54-48 in double OT w/ the two offenses combining for 1,058 yards. Now that was against an Oklahoma offense that is far more prolific than any other in the CFP and quite possibly the entire country. Alabama is a MUCH different opponent than the Sooners w/ defense being their strong side. But Bama still comes in averaging 37.9 points per game. The Georgia offense averages 36.3 PPG. With all the attention being paid to the two defenses, might we be underrating the offenses? 

This will be the second lowest O/U line for any Alabama game this season. The only lower one (43.0) was vs. Vanderbilt and saw the Tide blow by the total themselves in a 59-0 win. Now, pretty clearly, that kind of lopsided result will NOT be repeated here. But whatever decline in scoring there is from Bama's perspective can be offset by the Georgia offense being significantly better than Vandy's. Away from Tuscaloosa, the Tide allows 17.3 PPG, more than double what they allow at home. Georgia had only two games w/ an O/U line lower than this one (vs Vandy and Florida) and both went Over. Ironically, UGA scored 42 and 45 pts in those two games. Again, I don't think for a second either offense will score 40+, but they can both score 20+ and don't discount the possibility of a defensive or special teams TD here. 8* Over Alabama/Georgia 

8* Oklahoma (5:00 ET): It's not a "classic" (Big 10 vs. Pac 12) Rose Bowl matchup, but the first of two CFP semifinals could be a classic nonetheless as it's a battle of offense vs. defense here w/ Oklahoma taking on Georgia. OU was #4 in the country during the regular season in points per game while UGA is #3 in points allowed. In fact, the top three teams in the country in points allowed (Bama-Clemson-UGA) all made the CFP, leaving the Sooners as the outlier in the department. But Heisman winner Baker Mayfield (sick or not) can more than make up for that discrepancy as Oklahoma has a huge edge at the most important position (QB) in this game. Remember, Georgia's starting QB (Jacob Fromm) is a true freshman. Only one true frosh in the history of College Football (ironically, Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway, in 1985) has led his team to a National Championship. Due to concerns over Mayfield's health (he's playing obviously!), this line has been bet up and there's now plenty of value on the Sooners.

Led by Mayfield, who meshes so well w/ coordinator turned HC Lincoln Riley, the OU offense averaged 44.9 PPG in the regular season and a FBS-high 583.3 yards per game. The offense is more than just Mayfield, however, as it is loaded at all the skill positions not to mention the offensive line is also one of the best in the country. The running back and receiver groups are both incredibly deep and TE Mark Andrews won the Mackey Award for being the best at his position. There is no doubt in my mind that OU is going to score plenty in this game. The fewest pts they scored in any game this year was 31 and they won both times they were an underdog, beating Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road. But what about the Sooners' defense? Clearly, it will be labeled the "worst" of the four defenses in the CFP and that's fair. But it's a group that improved down the stretch, most notably holding TCU to 20 and 17 points in two matchups.

Georgia's defense, save for the loss to Auburn, is pretty sick. But it should be noted that they have not faced a passing attack anywhere close to what Oklahoma brings to the table. Generally speaking, QB play is pretty subpar in the SEC these days. I worry about Fromm and the UGA offense, even though they come in averaging almost 35 PPG. I expect the Sooners' defense to "stack the box" and dare Fromm to beat them through the air. The Georgia passing attack only averages 170 YPG and if they fall behind here, that could mean big-time trouble. It's worth mentioning that OU did open as a 1-pt favorite here, so again, I think we've gotten to a point where there's value in taking them. Oklahoma has won and covered the last three times it has taken on a SEC opponent, including bowl wins over Alabama (2013) and Auburn (last year). They averaged 40 PPG in those two bowl wins. 8* Oklahoma 

8* Over Notre Dame/LSU (1:00 ET): This is one of the better non-CFP bowl games and a rematch of the 2016 Music City Bowl, won by the Fighting Irish, 31-28 as 8-pt underdogs. But that particular bowl game was played in December. Why is that significant? Well, ND has gone a horrific 0 for its last 9 (straight up) in January bowls! Prior to the start of the season, I had the Irish as one of the most improved teams in the country and they did not disappoint, racing out to an 8-1 SU start before dropping two of its last three (@ Miami and Stanford). LSU is on an opposite trajectory as they opened 3-2 SU (including home loss to Troy!), but then they closed on a 6-1 SU (only loss to Alabama) run, covering all seven games.

I've got no great read on the side here (though I give a slight lean to Notre Dame), however, the total is something I'm very interesting in. Both offenses like to run the football, but will be going up against staunch run defenses. That sounds like an Under ... but I still trust this Irish offensive line (best in the country?). Before the Miami game, Notre Dame averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per rush. I expect them to rediscover that type of ground attack here as LSU will be minus its top three linebackers! I realize QB Brandon Wimbush completed less than 50% of his pass attempts in the regular season and will be w/o two receivers and tight ends on New Year's Day (combo of suspensions and injuries). But I think the run game can carry the offense, like it did in the reg season when it averaged a healthy 35.3 points per game.

LSU's offense averaged 412.9 yards per game, which is probably more than you thought. It's not quite as lofty as Notre Dame's 454.9 YPG, but they averaged roughly the same number of yards per play (6.3 vs. 6.4). QB Etling completed nearly 60 percent of his pass attempts and it's looking like RB Darius Guice will be a go. In each of their last three games, the Tigers ran for 200+ yards and the Irish defense actually gave up 237 or more on the ground in three of the last four. They also allowed 37 or more points three times in that same stretch. The LSU offense got much better as the season went along, scoring 30+ in each of the final three games, peaking w/ a season-best 45 pts against A&M in the finale. 8* Over Notre Dame/LSU

Update: Auburn's top corner, Carlton Davis, is now out (illness) and that's huge for Central Florida and their offense! 

10* Central Florida (12:30 ET): We have seen the "Group of 5" team step up in the "New Year's Six" Bowl Game before, even winning outright the first two years of the current format w/ Boise State upsetting Arizona in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl and Houston doing the same to Florida State in the 2016 Peach Bowl. Last year, your ATS results may vary as Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 24-16, a game that fell right on/near the number. But the MAC always stinks in bowl games and this year we're back to an AAC team, UCF, who was the ONLY team in the country to finish the regular season unbeaten. Auburn, after losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia, has to be a little disappointed w/ this bowl assignment and I'm taking the points.

UCF comes in w/ the top ranked offense in the country, averaging an astounding 49.4 points per game. That's a big reason why HC Scott Frost was hired away by Nebraska. Frost will coach this game though and the "Group of 5" teams have become used to this spot as Houston's Tom Hermann and Western Michigan's PJ Fleck were both set to depart when they coached their bowl games the L3 years. Now, UCF's conference brethren Memphis (who was #2 in FBS in scoring) was just held in check in its bowl game by Iowa State. UCF will have to deal w/ an even more stout defense (Auburn #7 in def efficiency), but as alluded to above, it will also probably be a less motivated one than what Memphis faced vs. Iowa State. It needs to be stated the the Golden Knights scored 45+ pts eight times during the regular season, including each of the last four games.

Let's point out that Auburn did lose three times this year. Now those losses were to Clemson, Georgia (both in CFP!) and LSU (who they led by 20). But still, it's not like they are infallible. All their big wins this year, most notably the Alabama one and the first Georgia game, came at Jordan-Hare. This is always a tough matchup for the Power 5 school because it's hard to get motivated to play a smaller school, especially when you're in a position like Auburn is here, that being you hoped to be in the playoff (before losing the SEC Champ Game). Note the Tigers were only 3-4-2 ATS as favorites this year, including 2-3-2 laying double digits. Now those seven games all found them favored by 15 or more pts, but still, it was also against lesser competition. RB Kamryn Pettway will not play here for the Tigers and despite missing the L5 games, he still led the SEC in rush yards per game. Auburn has lost three of its last four bowl games. 10* UCF

8* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): The Big 10 has proven itself to be quite formidable this bowl season, topping all conference's w/ a perfect 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS), led by Ohio State's 24-7 win over USC last night. Wisconsin is the team the Buckeyes beat in the Conference Championship and while they're prob NOT the Big 10's 2nd best team (Penn State is), the Badgers were unbeaten going into their last game and that should be respected, even though the Orange Bowl against Miami qualifies as a "true" road game. This is a line that dropped quite a bit during the week (I didn't really understand why), but has since risen back. That reminds me of the Va Tech-OK State betting pattern where I was on the favorite (who ended up covering). Lay the points here. 

Remember when "The U was back?" How long is this tired narrative going to be pushed. Like Wisconsin, Miami was undefeated late in the year. They were thinking playoff following a 41-8 demolition of Notre Dame here in Coral Gables and then the team ran its mark to 10-0 (SU) after beating Virginia 44-28 the following week. But then, the bottom dropped out. They were upset at Pitt (24-14), as 12-pt favorites, in the regular season finale. Then, Clemson absolutely hammered them in the ACC Title Game, 38-3. Now injuries played a significant role in that late season swoon, but it's not like they've gone away. TE Chris Herndon is out as is WR Ahmmon Richards. That's two of the team's top receivers right there. QB Malik Rosier was awful down the stretch, completing less than 50% of his passes the L6 games. Oh by the way, the 'Canes are also w/o RB Mark Walton. 

None of that is good news when getting set to face what is, statistically speaking, the top defense in all the land. Wisconsin gives up just 253.2 YPG (only 92.6 on the ground) and 13.2 points per game. All the focus here will probably be on Miami's turnover chain and while it's true they did force 30 turnovers over the course of the season, Wisconsin wasn't far behind w/ 26. The 'Canes live and die by TO's, but I'll trust QB Alex Hornibrook to be careful w/ the ball here. The Badgers were 5-0 SU in the reg season as a road favorite, covering the spread in four of those games. 8* Wisconsin

10* Washington (4:00 ET): What a difference one year as makes as last year at this time, we were having a discussion over which of these two teams belonged in the College Football Playoff. Washington got the nod and was generally outclassed by Alabama, losing 24-7 as 2-TD underdogs. Penn State was "relegated" to a Rose Bowl appearance and after an impressive start to that game (led big), they lost to USC, 52-49. So both schools will be looking for a bit of atonement in this year's edition of the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams went 10-2 SU in the reg season, neither making their respective conference title game. Washington lost to Arizona State and Stanford (both on the road) while Penn State fell to Ohio State and Michigan State (also both on the road). It seems like an even matchup, but I'll take the points.

The Fiesta Bowl has been kind to Penn State in the past as they are 6-0 SU all-time in this game, including a win in the de facto 1986 Title Game (vs. Miami FL). Their two losses this year came by a combined four points and over the L2 seasons, four of their five losses have been by a field goal or less (49-10 loss at Michigan the exception). I went "against the grain" w/ this Nittany Lions team for 2017 and predicted they would disappoint, so two reg season losses did not surprise me. They are a VERY public side here, something else that doesn't surprise me, as they're the more "known" commodity. But what bettors really need to know is that Washington has one of the top run defenses in the country (just 2.6 YPG allowed) and that's the key to beating Penn State. 

In their losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions ran the ball for only 156 yds total, despite the presence of Saquon Barkley. I expect them to struggle to establish the run again here. Note that this game marks the first time all season UW has been an underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the playoff game vs. Alabama is the ONLY time Chris Petersen's team has been getting points. We have two offenses that have both scored 30+ pts ten times during the regular season, but both also allow 15.5 PPG or fewer (UW allows 14.5 PPG). Penn State's offensive line is a little suspect (74th in sack rate allowed) and I believe the Washington defense, led by Myles Gaskin, will be the difference in this one. 10* Washington

8* Memphis (12:30 ET): So, Iowa State entered bowl season tied w/ Fresno State (who ended up covering their bowl game) for the best ATS record in the country. Led by a defense which allowed just 21.0 PPG, they pulled upsets of Oklahoma and TCU along the way. So the Cyclones certainly won't be intimidated here by the high-flying offense of Memphis (47.7 PPG). However, there are several disadvantages they are facing here. Not only is Memphis' offense far superior (ISU only +21 YPG), they also have a large edge on special teams. Then there is a matter that this is the Liberty Bowl, Memphis' home stadium. The Tigers won all seven home games during the regular season, by an average of 19.3 PPG, while averaging 50.1 themselves. Memphis averaged slightly more PPG than both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, ISU's two Big 12 rivals.

I think it's definitely fair to say that Iowa State overachieved in 2017. They were only favored in four games. They won all four of those, also going 4-0 ATS. But the key was pulling three different outright upsets and going 6-2 ATS as a dog. I don't see them "sneaking up" on Memphis here. Originally picked for second to last in the 10-team Big XII, the 'Clones are looking for their first bowl win since 2009. They have not been to a bowl since 2012. Each of the previous four seasons saw them win three games or fewer. It was not a particularly strong finish to the regular season w/ them dropping three of the final four games. I just don't see the offense necessary here to keep pace with the favored Tigers. A similar call-back I have is to the Va Tech-OK State game where I sided w/ the latter (was correct). Also, I should point out that the 1st time we saw a team play its bowl at home, it was a complete blowout w/ FAU burying Akron.

The Memphis' offense was not only second nationally in points per game, it was also fourth in yards per game (548.2). Led by QB Riley Ferguson, who completed 63% of his pass attempts for 3,971 yds and 36 TDs, they are lethal. All-American WR Anthony Miller had 92 catches for 1400+ yds, 17 of them going for TD's. RB Darrell Henderson averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards per carry w/ he and Patrick Taylor, Jr combining for over 1900 yards over land. A final key here is turnovers. Iowa State won all seven games where it was positive in TO margin and winless when it did not win that battle. They have not lost a single fumble this season, which is somewhat preposterous. However, Memphis actually has a better TO margin at +14 vs. +11. 8* Memphis

8* Over USC/Ohio State (8:00 ET): I'd say that outside the CFP itself, this is the most anticipated bowl game. Initially, my lean is to Ohio State as the irony of the debate between them and Alabama for the 4th (and final) spot in the playoff is that I think they're - on paper - the best two teams in the country. Not making the CFP should lead to HC Urban Meyer having his Buckeyes VERY motivated on Friday night. But ... USC is not chopped liver. The Trojans were not a healthy team when they suffered their two losses during the regular season (at Wazzu and Notre Dame). If Iowa can put up 55 pts on this Buckeyes' defense, then QB Sam Darnold and company should certainly "do some damage" as well. I look for a very high-scoring (and entertaining) Cotton Bowl. Take the Over.

Ohio State's offense averaged more PPG - significantly - than did USC's. While QB J.T. Barrett is often maligned by the faithful in Columbus, he directed a group that averaged an impressive 42.5 PPG in the regular season. USC's defense is not very good at stopping the run (allowed 158 YPG) and OSU is averaging 250 YPG over land. Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 523.6 yards per game total at 7.0 yards per play. I see them moving the ball, almost at will, in this game. The fact that USC could be down two starters on the defensive side of the ball - LB Porter Gustin and CB Jack Jones - does not bode well here. Barrett ran for 732 yards this season, a nice compliment to sensational RB J.K. Dobbins, who went for 1,364 as a freshman.

Of course, USC has a "pretty nice" QB/RB combo of their own in Darnold and Ronald Jones II. In fact, that's not only a better duo than Barrett/Dobbins, it just might be the best QB/RB combo in the entire country! USC averages 34.5 points and 490 yards per game. Other than the disaster against Notre Dame, there wasn't a single game where this Trojans offense was held under 27 pts. They did need OT to get to that benchmark vs. Texas, but the Longhorns also happen to have one of the top defenses in the country. The best performances from Ohio State's defense were all reserved for the non-bowl teams, as they gave up 38 to Penn State and 55 to Iowa. 8* Over USC/Ohio State

10* Northwestern (4:30 ET): The reality of the modern bowl structure is that you're going to always have a fair number of subpar teams in the postseason. This year saw seven teams make a bowl that were outscored during the regular season. One of those is Kentucky, who - at least among "Power 5" (conference) reps - may be the weakest school involved. Not only were the Wildcats outscored by an average of about a full field goal per game, but they were also outgained by about 75 yards per game as well! Being that they are an overachiever, you also might be surprised to learn that they were 3-9 ATS, the worst such record among bowl teams. They rode a very easy SEC schedule (no 'Bama, Auburn or LSU!) to get here. 

Northwestern, unlike UK, closed its regular season strong. While it was apparent that no one would overtake Wisconsin in the Big 10 West, the Wildcats tried their best by winning and covering the last seven games! They did lose to both Penn State and Wisconsin (two top 10 teams), but besides a head-scratcher against Duke, that was it. Their 9-3 ATS record is among the best in the country and they were 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS favorites. Furthermore, while Kentucky was outscored and outgained during the year, N'western not only outgained opponents by almost 50 YPG, they also outscored them by almost 10 PPG. Basic metrics indicate that this year's Music City Bowl is a real mismatch. 

UK was outscored 86-20 in its final two regular season games, which came against Georgia and Louisville. Overall, they've dropped four of six. Defensively, Northwestern would appear to have a giant edge. They allowed just 20 points - total - the last three games (just 1 TD in the last two) while UK allowed 40+ pts three different times and 35.8 PPG overall over the second half of the season. There are also two specific areas where the Wildcats have the edge defensively. One is against the run (which will be handy here as run is what both offenses like to do). N'western is top 10 in the nation in yards allowed per carry (3.3) while UK is 89th (4.8). In the red zone, the Wildcats are dead last among bowl teams allowing points on over 92% of possessions. N'western is third best at 67.7%. Kentucky has not been successful in bowl games recently, last winning one in 2009 (lost last three). This is, on paper, one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season. 10* Northwestern

8* Texas A&M (1:00 ET): After going 3-9 SU in each of Dave Clawson's first two seasons on the job, Wake Forest has now put forth B2B 7-win campaigns and is now in position to achieve its most wins in any season since the 2008 team. But they'll have to get by Texas A&M in this year's Belk Bowl to do so. While the Demon Deacons somewhat surprised me w/ a 7-5 SU reg season, A&M was largely a disappointment in finishing w/ the same record and that cost (now) fmr HC Kevin Sumlin his job. While they're thrilled to be welcoming in Jimbo Fisher (left Florida State) next year in College Station, there has been some question over the Aggies' level of motivation. I'm not buying it and will take the points even though WF is playing a virtual home game in Charlotte (not far from campus in Winston-Salem).

Wake Forest finished w/ the same efficiency rating at Miami did in the reg season, which may surprise some folks. QB John Wolford improved exponentially this year, going from a negative TD-INT ratio his first three seasons as the starter to 25-6 this year. That improvement is also tied to an experienced offensive line, but that group will have its hands full in this game w/ an A&M front seven that was top five nationally in sacks (despite losing Myles Garrett to the NFL!). This is - easily - the best offense WF has had under Clawson, but remember they are w/o top WR Greg Dortch. His absence made the winning record all the more surprising to me. At 8-3-1 ATS overall, the Deacons definitely qualify as a "surprise." They did win their bowl game LY (as a 12-pt underdog!) against another school (Temple) that was going through a HC change, but I'm interested to see how they now perform in the role of favorite. There were just two times in the reg season that WF was asked to lay more than a TD against a FBS foe, one of them being the finale against Duke, which they promptly lost outright. 

Certainly, laying a field goal to a SEC opponent is uncharted territory for the Demon Deacons. I see two pretty evenly matched teams here w/ the coaching change for A&M being the reason for the field goal advantage. Like A&M, the Deacons have a suspect defense, one that allows 444 YPG for the season and 569 yards over the L4 games. So, look for the Aggies to be able to move the ball in this one. In the five games w/ Nick Starkel as the starting QB, their offense averaged 36 PPG. He will play here. The five teams that beat A&M this year were: LSU, Auburn, Miss St, Alabama and UCLA. With the exception of the Bruins (who A&M led big in the season opener), all those teams are better than Wake Forest. 8* Texas A&M

8* Washington State (9:00 ET): We've seen a significant line move for this year's edition of the Holiday Bowl. Clearly, early bettors are banking on the notion that Michigan State will be "motivated" by being "slighted" in favor of rival Michigan, who got the better bowl spot on New Year's Day (Outback Bowl vs. S Carolina) despite losing to Sparty in the regular season. In my mind, what we now have is some nice value on a Wazzu team that should be hungry to atone for LY's bowl "no-show" against Minnesota. This is a program that still only has ONE bowl victory going all the way back to 2003. Perhaps, all things considered, it should be the Cougars that are the more motivated side come Thursday night. Take the points. 

Both teams finished their respective regular seasons 9-3 SU. Both come in ranked in the top 20. Truthfully, I wasn't as high as the pollsters were on either team. I said it multiple times throughout the regular season, but Michigan State was among the most fortunate teams in the country, record-wise. Consider that their point differential in Big 10 play was only +15 despite a 7-2 SU record. To put that number in its proper perspective, consider that Penn State (also 7-2 SU in Big 10 play) outscored its Big 10 foes by 186 points! Ohio State's point differential was +238! Sparty's Big 10 point differential was actually "in the black" (negative!) before thumping Rutgers, 40-7, in the last game. All other Big 10 wins were by 10 pts or less, four by a TD or less and that doesn't even include "stealing" a cover vs. Indiana w/ a late TD (won by 8). 

Wazzu outgained opponents by 132.2 YPG, better than MSU's 80.5. I have them rated slightly higher than Sparty in my own personal power ratings, so that's where the value comes in. I concede that the Cougs haven't done a whole lot worth mentioning outside Pullman this season. However, a key here is that their defense is far better than most realize. I expect this to be a low-scoring game where points could be at a premium. Note that in HALF their games this year, Michigan State failed top 18 points on offense! Led by QB Luke Falk, Wazzu comes in averaging 446.4 YPG on offense. They scored 30+ in eight games. Maybe they're held in check, but plus the points they are the play. 8* Washington State

8* TCU/Stanford Under (9:00 ET): The bowl matchups are starting to get more "attractive" on Thursday w/ three of the four pitting ranked teams against one another. This is one of them. I liked both TCU and Stanford coming into this season as the former got the "honor" of being labeled "my most improved team in the country" and the win total I had on them (Over 7.5) cashed easily. So you may be surprised to see that I'm NOT on the Horned Frogs here. That's because I also have a ton of respect for Stanford, especially w/ RB Bryce Love suiting up. This should be a very good game, between two well-coached teams, and that should lend itself to an Under play in my opinion. Both teams allow fewer than 21.5 PPG w/ TCU allowing only 17.6.

The Under was 9-3 for TCU in the regular season, not surprising, given the defensive prowess. Like Stanford, the Horned Frogs (#11) are in the top 15 in defensive efficiency (Stanford is #15). Over the final two months, only one offense - that being Oklahoma's (so no shame there!) was able to top 24 pts against these Horned Frogs. And in the reg season matchup w/ the Sooners, they shut them out in the 2nd half (in Norman!). Iowa State was the only team besides OU to beat the Frogs and that was a 14-7 final. Getting back to the defense, it ranks top five nationally in yards per attempt (rushing), which seems like a good thing when getting set to face Love. That number per attempt was just 2.9! It's not just the run that this stop unit is great against, however. They also allow just a 52% completion rate, which is pretty impressive playing in the Big 12. For the season, they held opponents to 122 YPG below season averages.

The TCU offense scored more than 27 pts only two times in the last eight games and those came against Baylor and Kansas, who went a combined 1-17 SU in conference play (2-22 overall!) w/ the one win being Baylor beating Kansas. As you know, they don't play a lot of defense in the Big 12, so the Stanford defense (which faces some strong passing attacks in the Pac 12) will be a tall order. The Cardinal were also their conference runner-up and like TCU losing to Oklahoma twice, they lost to USC twice. We have two inconsistent QB's at the helm here. 8* TCU/Stanford Under

8* Oklahoma State (5:15 ET): Both of these squads had bigger aspirations than the Camping World Bowl, but ironically I thought both had the potential for more severe regression in 2017. Va Tech was coming off a 10-4 SU year where they represented the Coastal in the ACC Title Game. But, from the start this year, I preferred Miami over them. A 7-1 SU start was a total mirage as the Hokies were, in fact, hammered down in Coral Gables. To be frank, they played a pretty weak schedule for an ACC squad and lost by double digits to both top 10 teams they faced. Their defense is good, but I just don't see them having the offense neccessary to keep up w/ QB Mason Rudolph and the Pokes. Lay the points.

Oklahoma State finished their regular season 9-3 SU, same as Virginia Tech. A win here and they make it three straight 10-win seasons for HC Mike Gundy (and 4 out of 5!). In essence, the Cowboys' hopes and dreams for the year ended w/ a 62-52 loss to rival Oklahoma in early November. (Bedlam played early this year). I'm not putting much stock into a late season loss to Kansas State as the Pokes had little to play for while the Wildcats were fighting for bowl eligibility. Another similarity (besides WL record) to Va Tech is the Pokes lost to the two best teams on the schedule and beat West Virginia. But they also beat Iowa State, which is a better win than anything Va Tech has on its resume. There were actually two common opponents (that both beat) - WVU and Pitt. Oklahoma State's MOV was 49 pts while Va Tech's was only 13.

This is the classic "clash of styles" matchup. Oklahoma State averages 46.3 PPG (3rd in FBS). Va Tech allows only 13.5 (5th). When I look at which unit is likely to come closer to its average, I heavily lean to the former's offense. For the 1st time in Big 12 history, we saw a 4,000+ yd QB (Rudolph), a 1,000+ yd RB (Justice Hill) and TWO 1,000+ yd WR's (James Washington and Marcell Ateman). Washington is the nation's top receiver. The Pokes were #2 in total yardage per game (575.5) and #1 in passing (392.3). Yes, Va Tech posted three regular season shutouts, but two of those were against Delaware (FCS) and Old Dominion. Getting back to the Hokies' inability to "keep pace" here, an already suspect offense will be w/o its leading rusher (Travon McMillian) and receiver (Cam Phillips). QB Josh Jackson only has a 9-7 TD-INT ratio vs. Power 5 teams and the Cowboys' defense is better than you think. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Under Purdue/Arizona (8:30 ET): The Foster Farms Bowl features two teams that should be "happy to be here," simply based on the notion neither was in a bowl at the end of last season. Purdue was due for better luck in 2017 based on the fact they were tied for the worst turnover differential in the country last season (-17). They won their final reg season game, over rival Indiana, to become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Arizona dropped its final two reg season games to finish 7-5 SU. Again, Rich Rod's team improving in '17 did not surprise me given most key metrics were pointing up after dipping down to 3-9 SU last season. Given the disparate styles of play here, something will have to give w/ the total and I see an Under.

Purdue's defense - by the numbers - is very good. They allow only 19.3 PPG and that number actually drops outside of West Lafayette. That's key when facing an Arizona offense that comes in averaging 41.8 PPG, led by QB Khalil Tate. Over the L8 games, the Boilermakers didn't allow more than 25 pts to any opponent. (Granted, the schedule was not tough). But Michigan and Louisville were the only teams to score more than 25 against them all season. The problem here though is the offense averages only 24.2 PPG. 1st year HC Jeff Brohm will eventually have an impact on this group, but it wasn't this year nor will it be this game. In half their games, the Boilers scored 24 pts or less. 

Arizona is all offense and no defense, so it's just the reverse of Purdue. Playing in the Pac 12, the Wildcats didn't exactly face the kind of stout defense they'll see here. The good news though is that the defense will get a reprieve facing the Purdue offense. This O/U line clearly skews more to Arizona's style of play and I believe that's a mistake given Purdue had gone Under in six straight and 9 of 11 (w/ consistently lower totals) prior to the reg season finale vs. Indiana. 8* Under Purdue/Arizona 

10* Iowa (5:15 ET): The Hawkeyes have (infamously) not won a bowl game since 2010, dropping five in a row - both SU and ATS. But there's a big difference between this year's Pinstripe Bowl and those last five postseason appearances, that being they'll be favored here! Sure enough, four of those last five bowl games saw an unranked Hawkeyes squad "stepping up in class" to take on a ranked foe. That won't be the case this year vs. Boston College. B.C. does enter this game having won five of six, including victories over bowl teams Florida State, Virginia and Louisville. But they also lost starting QB Anthony Brown late in the season. I'm "hanging my hat" on Iowa being highly motivated here and I shouldn't have to remind you that they absolutely walloped Ohio State 55-24 last month. 

This will not be confused with a Big 12 regular season game. These two squads like to run the ball and play good defense. Both are top seven nationally against the pass. The final result will likely be decided by who runs the ball more effectively. Boston College RB AJ Dillon, a freshman, went for 1432 yards. Twice he went for 200+ yds in a game. Not to be outdone, Iowa's Akrum Wadley was a 1,000+ yard back and is also a receiving threat. The key though is the rushing defenses. B.C. is 103rd in the nation, giving up 5.0 yards per carry (198 YPG!). Iowa is significantly better in that area, allowing only 4.1 YPG and they also allowed only nine rushing TD's ALL YEAR! The Eagles defense may also be w/o DE Harold Landry, which would be significant.

Again, Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24 this season. Thus, it was somewhat head-scratching that they finished w/ losses in two of the final three games, including one to Purdue. They scored just 29 pts total in the two games after beating Ohio State. But they did win six of the seven games they were favored in (straight up). They actually average 28.3 PPG and give up only 19.9. That's a better scoring margin than B.C. against what grades out as a harder schedule. I feel this line has decreased solely based on past Iowa bowl failures, but this is the first time in a long time where the Hawkeyes enter the bowl as the better team on paper. I have them rated as better on BOTH sides of the football. 10* Iowa 

8* Florida State (1:30 ET): Save for Florida Atlantic (covered!), no team is a bigger favorite this bowl season than the Seminoles. This may surprise you given that this was the most disappointing season down in Tallahassee in recent memory. Not only did the 'Noles need to reschedule a 12th reg season game (vs. LA Monroe!) just to get to six wins, there's been some debate over their bowl eligibility as one of those wins was against a Delaware State program and maybe shouldn't have counted. But where there's no debate is FSU's talent level compared to that of Southern Miss. Playing for an interim HC, there is a question of motivation here, but I feel the 'Noles show up "ready to play" and I'll lay the points.

Comparing the stats between these teams is not "apples to apples" as one team plays in the ACC and the other in Conference USA. Southern Miss won three straight and six of eight to finish the reg season at 8-4 SU, but the teams they beat are a real "rogue's gallery." Their "best" wins were on the road against La Tech and Marshall, both on the road. But those also came by a combined eight points. The other six wins were all against non-bowl teams. In fact, the Golden Eagles didn't even play a single opponent ranked in my top 65! So that's why they're such a prohibitive underdog in this spot. They shared one common opponent w/ FSU in the reg season, that being La Monroe. While the Seminoles beat the WarHawks by 32, the USM prevailed by just 11.

Florida State's season essentially was tanked in the opener, when they lost to Alabama (were ranked #3 in the country at the time!) w/ QB Deondre Francois being lost for the season to injury. There's also a number of "healthy scratches" here with some players electing to skip the Independence Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. But those who remain will play hard for interim HC Odell Haggins, who has been a position coach here dating back to 1994 and may be coaching for his job w/ the Willie Taggert regime set to take over next year. It's also interesting that despite the majority of bets in this game being place on the underdog, the line has actually increased. That's typically a sign of "sharper dollars" being on the other side. 8* Florida State

8* UCLA (9:00 ET): This is one of two bowl games on Tuesday's slate where the line has been dramatically impacted by the status of one team's QB. In this instance, Josh Rosen (concussion) is still not cleared to play for UCLA and that has them now listed as sizable underdogs to Kansas State in this year's edition of the Cactus Bowl. Rosen, who I would choose if I had the #1 draft pick in April (assuming he declares), would undoubtedly be a significant loss for UCLA. But often times, with injuries such as this one, we see an overreaction by the marketplace and that's what I'm banking on here. There's always the outside chance Rosen does play (and we'd have a great line if he did!), but at the same time, it's not as if Kansas State's defense is very good. Take the points. 

 Yes, UCLA's defense is very bad at stopping the run and K-State has a significant edge on special teams. However, as far as the UCLA run defense goes, will the Wildcats be able to take advantage? Their offense is down to a third-string QB (Skylar Thompson). Tip your cap to the way this team finished its reg season (wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State), but those two victories came by a combined six points. Kansas State is a program that I'd prefer much more in the underdog role, not as a favorite. They were favored only FIVE times in the reg season, one of those against a FCS program, another against one of the worst FBS teams in the country (Charlotte) and then also Baylor and Kansas (went a combined 2-22). They're being overvalued here. 

It's not like the Kansas State pass defense is very good either. So either Rosen or backup Devon Modster, should have a very big night here. The Wildcats' secondary allowed a completion percentage of 62.2 in the reg season with opposing QB's averaging 310 YPG. They gave up 432 YPG overall. As maligned as UCLA's run defense has been (rightfully so), they improved down the stretch (held USC to only 153 yds on 41 carries!) and Kansas State's offensive line will be w/o its starting right tackle Dalton Risner. If this is HC Bill Snyder's "swan song" for K-State, the team will certainly want to send him out a winner. But the UCLA players will certainly want to impress the incoming Chip Kelly regime as well. 8* UCLA 

10* Over N Illinois/Duke (5:15 ET): This year's edition of the Quick Lane Bowl pits Northern Illinois against Duke. The former is used to playing here at Ford Field due to their plethora of MAC Title Game appearances. They didn't win their division this season, but still finished a solid 6-2 in conf play (8-4 SU overall) w/ the two losses coming to Toledo and C Michigan (meaningless reg season finale). Duke, meanwhile, needed to win its two final reg season games just to get here. It was a very "up and down" season in Durham w/ the Blue Devils having opened 4-0 SU (including a very impressive non-conf win over N'western), then losing six straight, followed by the B2B wins. I've got no read on the side, so to the total we go!

Duke at long last snapped its drought of no bowl victories (dated back to 1961!) two years ago w/ a win in the Pinstripe Bowl over Indiana. They failed to make a bowl game LY as they dropped to 4-8 SU. But, as mentioned above, they equaled that win total through just four games this season. Clearly, the most impressive win was 41-17 over N'western. But the good times would not last as the offense never broke 21 points during the six-game losing streak. However, note four of those six losses came by a TD or less. Interestingly, in all six wins, the Blue Devils scored 27 or more. We'll need to see more of the Daniel Jones (QB) that started the year w/ a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and threw for 226 YPG, than the one we saw in the middle portion of the season. In the final two reg season games, Duke gained 943 total yds. 

Northern Illinois certainly has a formidable defense. The Huskies led the COUNTRY in tackles for loss (8.8 per game!) and were #2 in sacks. Yet, they still gave up 31 pts in each of the final two reg season games and enter the Bowl on a three-game Over streak. There seems to be a prevailing wisdom that this will be a lower-scoring affair and as a result, oddsmakers posted a low O/U line. By kickoff, this may be the lowest O/U line of the season for NIU, save for a game against a Kent State team that may have had the worst offense in the country this season. The Huskies' offense really came on in the 2H of the season, scoring 30 or more in five of the last six games. They wound up averaging over 30 PPG. Duke went Under in all but three reg season games, but there's a good chance this ends up as their lowest O/U line of the season to date as well. 10* Over N Illinois/Duke

8* West Virginia (1:30 ET): Most are simply writing WVU off here as they enter the Heart of Dallas Bowl w/o their starting QB, Will Grier. That's definitely a big blow, but NOT something they can't overcome and in the past, I've seen bowl teams overcome greater adversity. Furthermore, as a result of the Grier injury, the oddsmakers have gotten REALLY generous here. Remember that w/o Grier, the Mountaineers still scored 31 points and gained nearly 400 yds in the regular season finale. Now, they still lost because they were facing Oklahoma and the Sooners' offense is an absolute juggernaut. But Utah is not Oklahoma and won't be scoring anywhere near 59 points. I like the idea of WVU HC Dana Holgorsen having this much time to prepare. Take the points. 

Rather than "roll over" w/o their starting QB, I expect this dog to be quite motivated Tuesday afternoon. The West Virginia seniors have yet to cover a bowl game, winning only one and that was the 2015 Cactus Bowl (by a single point!) over Arizona State. Things were going quite well in Morgantown before the Grier injury as the team was 7-3 SU (went 10-3 SU last season). But they lost the L2 games to Texas and Oklahoma. Both of those teams are better than what they'll face here. Yes, I concede not having Grier does put a damper on the 16th ranked offense in FBS. But we saw Holgorsen get creative in the Oklahoma game (wildcat!) and I'm sure he'll have multiple wrinkles here. Also, the irony is that it many be the WVU defense that keeps them in this one. Exotic blitzing is something we see regularly from DC Tony Gibson and Utah's offensive line is not good. 

In addition to the Grier injury, another reason the Utes are getting plenty of "love" here is HC Kyle Whittingham's 10-1 SU bowl record. But how many times during that stretch have the Utes been an underdog? (A: more than not). The Utes were 6-2 SU/ATS as favorites this regular season, but just two of those games were away from Salt Lake and both came early (as in September). They also won both (Arizona, BYU) by just six points each. Too many people are writing off the Mounties here and I'll play 'contrarian' and grab the points. 8* West Virginia

10* Fresno State (8:30 ET): When you talk about this year's biggest "surprise" teams, the name Fresno State simply must be on your short list. In the 1st year under HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?), the Bulldogs improved from 1-11 to 9-4 SU, making it the best turnaround job in the entire country. They won a division (MWC West) that was supposed to be San Diego State's for the taking and played Boise State very tough in the Conference Championship Game (I had 'em plus the points). It's been a LONG time since FSU won a bowl game (2007), so they will be highly motivated, something that I'm not sure will be the case on the Houston side. Also, Fresno State is no stranger to making this trip to the Island as they played here during the regular season. 

Houston is a program two years removed from upsetting Florida State in the Peach Bowl. They did not fare well in LY's bowl game, a 34-10 loss to San Diego State in Las Vegas. Now in their first year under the direction of Major Applewhite (Tom Herman bolted for Texas), they'll again have to play through some coaching turbulence as OC Brian Johnson has left for the same gig at Florida. Applewhite was previously the OC under Herman, so that may not matter much, but it's certainly not a positive. While the Cougars did upset USF during the regular season, they also suffered outright losses to both Tulsa and Tulane. We've seen teams unaccustomed to making the trip to Hawaii struggle in the bowl game before (Middle Tenn LY, Cincy two years ago). I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to UH here.

Fresno State won on this field, 31-21, as 9.5-pt favorites just last month. That started a four-game ATS win streak to end the regular season. Overall, this Bulldogs team was tied (w/ Iowa State) for the best ATS record in the country at 10-2-1. I was pretty shocked to see Houston scored more than 28 pts only four times in the reg season. Fresno State has a top 10 defense nationally in scoring, allowing just 17.2 PPG. (They rank 9th). Three of the teams above them are in the College Football Playoffs, plus you have the likes of Wisconsin, Penn State and Washington. So this is a very good defense, the more motivated side and a team more accustomed to venue. 10* Fresno State

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): This would be a rare bowl rematch from the previous year as Toledo, now the favorite, takes on Appalachian State. The two schools met in LY's Camellia Bowl w/ App State prevailing 31-28 in what was a very even game. Four times the Mountaineers scored a TD, only to be answered by Toledo doing the same. It wasn't until a FG w/ just over five minutes remaining that they took the lead for good. This year saw Toledo finally capture that elusive MAC Championship (1st since '04) while App State had to settle for sharing first place in the Sun Belt (where there is no Champ Game). As I mentioned earlier, the Rockets are the favorite this year as the teams line up in the Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL.

Being the underdog has not suited Appalachian State well recently. They are 0-6 straight up in such games the L3 seasons. Twice they were getting points this season and both times they were a trend call to pull the upset. Both times, they (obviously) failed. One was the season opener against Georgia, the other at home vs. Wake Forest. Toledo might not be as good as either of those two side (obviously not as strong as Georgia), but they are an 11-win outfit that is superior to the vast majority of App State opponents this year. Interestingly, the Mountaineers avoided both of the other top teams in the SBC, those being Troy and Arkansas State. As I've mentioned in past analysis this bowl season, the SBC was really weak this year beyond the top three. Of note is that ASU scored only 10 and 19 pts the two games in which they were dogs. 

Toledo's offense is very strong, led by QB Logan Woodside, who was the only signal caller in the nation besides Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to throw for 25+ TD passes w/ fewer than eight interceptions (28-5 ratio). He finished the reg season w/ 3,758 yds passing as the Rockets averaged 11th nationally in scoring (39.2 PPG) and 8th in total (509.9 YPG) offense. They will be the best unit on the field Saturday night. While App State lost to the likes of UMass and LA Monroe (two bad teams), Toledo's only two losses were to Ohio U and Miami, both on the road. Turnovers were the story in both losses. Assuming the Rockets can protect the ball here (had zero TO's LY vs. App State), then they should win going away. 8* Toledo

10* South Florida (12:00 ET): I realize that there's a legit question of motivation on the side of USF, who can't be too thrilled about a return trip to the Birmingham Bowl given that they came into this season w/ thoughts of crashing the "New Year's Six" party. They only lost twice, one of those coming in what was quite possibly the "Game of the Year" in College Football, to unbeaten UCF. (Ironically, that 49-42 result enabled UCF to usurp USF's dreams and go on to play in the Peach Bowl vs. Auburn). Regardless though, on paper, the Bulls should have little difficulty w/ a pedestrian 6-6 Texas Tech squad that may just "be happy to be here" after upsetting Texas in the regular season finale. Lay the short number.

South Florida HC Charlie Strong knows this opponent well from his own time in Texas. His Longhorns teams went 2-1 SU/ATS vs. the Red Raiders, twice scoring 45 pts against them. The offense he brings in this time is far superior than any edition he had in Austin. Led by sensational QB Quinton Flowers, the Bulls averaged 38.3 points per game (15th nationally) and north of 500 YPG. Usually, Texas Tech has the offensive edge over its opponents, but that is NOT the case here. In fact, over their last three games, the Red Raiders averaged just 22.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Defensively, the Bulls have the edge as well. They allow just 22.5 PPG, as opposed to 31.7 for Texas Tech. Granted, you have to factor in that Texas Tech played the more challenging schedule, but still, the stats are slanted far enough in USF's direction that I'm willing to overlook that. 

This is just the third bowl in five seasons for TT under Kliff Kingsbury. Many in Lubbock felt Kingsbury was on the proverbial "hot seat" coming into 2017 as he was off a 5-7 SU season and projected to finish as low as 8th in the 10-team Big XII. As mentioned above, they needed to win their reg season finale (as 7.5-pt dogs at Texas) just to become bowl eligible. Getting back to the question of motivation for USF, I think the opportunity to knock off a Power 5 school is enough for them to "get up" for this game. They're the better team and laying a small number, I expect them to roll. Over the L3 seasons, in games where the line is three points or less, USF is 4-1 SU/ATS while TT is 1-5 both ways. 10* South Florida

10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming (4:00 ET): These programs enter the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on very different trajectories. Central Michigan won and covered its final five regular season games while Wyoming dropped its last two games, one of them to an awful San Jose State team. The big story here centers around Cowboys QB Josh Allen, a likely 1st round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft (overrated prospect, in my opinion). Whether or not Allen actually plays is irrelevant to me as I see a Wyoming offense that is very bad with or without him (atrocious w/o him!), yet the defense is what could make this a win for the Mountain West contingent. CMU rang up some big point totals on bad defenses down the stretch in the regular season. Take the Under. 

Now, to be fair to Allen, he lost a lot of his supporting cast to the NFL this season. Four starters from LY's offense are now playing on Sunday's and approximately 80 percent of LY's rushing and receiving production was lost as well. Thus, even w/ Allen playing most of the way, we have an offense here that didn't even average 300 YPG in the regular season. Allen was absent from the team's final two games and the Cowboys scored a TOTAL of 20 pts in losses to Fresno State and San Jose State. Personally, I don't know why Allen would play here given the shoulder issues and the impending payday he is going to receive. Regardless, Wyoming has gone Under in six straight games and 10 of 12 this year. That's also owed to a defense which allows just 17.8 PPG. 

One edge Wyoming does have over CMU here is they are used to playing in altitude and this game takes place on their side of the country. So, look for the Chippewas' offense to be drastically less productive here than it was down the stretch in the regular season. Also, note that before going Over in those final five games, the Chips had gone Under in five straight. After giving up 55 pts in LY's Bowl loss (to Tulsa), I suspect the CMU defense is going to play with a "chip" on its shoulder (pun intended!). "Anytime you let up that many points you're going to come off (angry)," defensive tackle Chris Kantzavelos told CMUChippewas.com. Both of these defense finished Top 12 nationally in interceptions. Neither offense is very good at running the ball (Wyoming is 119th nationally), so it may prove difficult to move the chains. 10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming

8* UAB (12:30 ET): Off to the Bahamas we go Friday afternoon where we're likely to find a highly motivated underdog, one that NO ONE could have possibly predicted would be in a bowl game this year. UAB HC Bill Clark just might be the Coach of the Year in College Football as he led a team that didn't even play a single game last season (program was temporarily dropped after 2014) and guided them to a stunning 8-4 SU regular season. Meanwhile, I can't say that Ohio U will be very motivated for this trip. Not only did the Bobcats blow what was a golden opportunity to win the MAC East at the regular season, but they're currently dealing with numerous injuries. I have a ton of respect for the job Frank Solich has done in Athens, but he's only 2-8 straight up in bowl games here. Take the points.

Adding to UAB's motivation here is that they have NEVER won a bowl game in school history. The last and only time they were in one was '04 (Roddy White era!) and they lost the Hawaii Bowl 59-40 to ... Hawaii. Though again "off the mainland," this is a far better matchup for them. The Blazers' one weakness is stopping the run, so lucky for them that OU is likely to be w/o its top two leading rushers for this game, not to mention their leading receiver as well! As you might have guessed, UAB sprung numerous upsets during the reg season as they were 5-2 ATS as dogs, winning four of those games outright. Five of their games were decided by five points or less. All things considered, they did have some head-scratching losses, including one to Ball State (a MAC team). But they closed by winning four of five, the lone loss coming at Florida.

When Ohio beat Toledo 38-10 on November 8th (as 3-pt home underdogs), it appeared as if they were in the drivers' seat to win the MAC East. Unfortunately, they then tanked, losing games at Akron and Buffalo, missing the spread by over 30 pts in those two games. The combination of injuries and disappointment likely take their toll here. Also, don't sleep on the UAB defense, which allows just 24.3 PPG (47th in the country) and only 188 passing yards per game. The MAC traditionally struggles in bowl games and I wouldn't want to lay this many points given the likely disparity in motivation. 8* UAB

8* Over Temple/Florida International (8:00 ET): Initially, Temple looked like "fade material" in this spot. FIU is the program making its return to a bowl for the first time since 2011 while this is Temple's third straight venture into the College postseason. The Owls were also outscored in the regular season and this game is being played in the state of Florida (it is the St. Petersburg Bowl after all). But FIU was also outscored in the reg season and you have the factor that Temple was upset in each of its previous two bowl appearances. So, the soon to be departing seniors should probably be pretty motivated here. Therefore, we're going to turn to the total in this bowl game, a number that has been on the rise since it opened.

The O/U line has risen, probably, in part due to the fact that both of these teams ended their respective regular seasons on Over streaks. Temple has gone Over in five straight (after going Under in their previous six games). FIU has gone Over in four straight and went 8-4 Over in the reg season. In five of its last seven season, including the previous three (all under current Baylor HC Matt Rhule), Temple allowed 20.1 points per game or fewer. This year, that number jumped to 27.7 PPG. They were sure to save their worst defensive efforts for their games against bowl opposition, allowing 45, 26, 31, 20, 43 and 49 pts. That's an average of exactly 29 PPG allowed. Offensively though, the Owls have been able to "pick up the slack." In their last three victories, they've averaged 37.3 PPG.

Not to be outdone, FIU scored 104 pts in its final two reg season games. Their finale was a 63-45 shootout vs. UMass. That was a record-setting win, not just in terms of wins in a single season (8) for the program, but also for total yardage in a game (674). They rolled up 379 yards on the ground w/ SIX touchdowns and were 7 for 7 overall in the red zone, scoring more points than any other game in program history. Defensively though, there are issues. They allow more PPG than Temple and have given up at least 37 pts in three of the previous four games. In half of their games this year, they allowed at least 30 points. 8* Over Temple/Florida International

8* Louisiana Tech (8:00 ET): It was an "up and down" first day of Bowl games for C-USA's perspective w/ two wins and two losses on Saturday. League champ FAU's result (check Tuesday) is not in yet as of press time. Overall, C-USA sent NINE teams bowling this year, which has to come as a shock to those who don't really pay attention to the league during the regular season. Here, we have a La Tech team that won the West Division LY, but dipped down to 4-4 SU in league play and 6-6 SU overall this season. They had to win their final two regular season games, over UTEP and UTSA (two of C-USA's five NON-bowl teams), just to get here. But the Bulldogs' senior class is 3-0 SU in bowl games (favored every time), so it's easy to like them plus the points here. 

SMU became bowl eligible back in late October, but then sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their final four reg season games. The only win was the finale, against lowly Tulane, while they lost to AAC heavyweights UCF, Navy and Memphis. The big story here is that HC Chad Morris has bolted for the Arkansas job and will be replaced by Sonny Dykes. Running backs coach Jeff Traylor was to serve as the interim here, but decided to follow Morris to Fayatteville. So Dykes is jumping straight into the fire here in the Frisco Bowl. SMU does have an edge in location w/ this game taking place in Frisco and Dykes was previously the HC at La Tech (before leaving for Cal). But those two factors aside, this is a tough spot for Dykes, who has to coach a team he hasn't had much time to learn about (will have been on the job for only NINE days by gameday!).

While La Tech is 3-0 SU in bowls under HC Skip Holtz (Dykes' replacement!), SMU has not been to a bowl since 2012 (when they stunned Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl, 43-10, as 13-pt underdogs). SMU has the edge offensively in this matchup, but La Tech is clearly better defensively. SMU did win all seven games that they were favored in during the regular season, but was only 4-3 ATS. I just think that the whole coaching situation is going to be a major detriment for the Mustangs. As for La Tech, this game is not a far trip for them either and I think they'll be the more motivated side as they're ecstatic to just be in a bowl. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Akron (7:00 ET): This spread is the largest for any bowl in the past two decades and is simply begging for a call to take the points. That's what I'll do here, even though Akron is pretty clearly "up against it," playing a "true" road game in Boca Raton. The Zips were the surprise winners of the MAC East this year and finished 7-6 SU despite being outscored and outgained rather severely against FBS competition. But a late season upset over Ohio enabled them to win their division and then they "backdoored" Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, losing by only 17 as 20.5-pt pups. I see, at worst, a similar situation presenting itself here as the underdog should be highly motivated by the "disrespect card." 

FAU made my short list for most improved teams in the country this year as Lane Kiffin walked into a great situation as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Also, the Owls were bound to improve upon a 1-4 SU record in close games. However, close games were not the reason this team made an unforseeable quantum leap in 2017 as they simply rolled the rest of Conference USA, going 9-0 (including Title Game) while outscoring opponents by 200 points. However, I worry about overconfidence from the Owls coming into this game as they really aren't accustomed to being this level of favorite. It wasn't until the final three games of the regular season that they were even asked to lay double digits! This is their second largest spread of the season, topped only by a matchup w/ Charlotte, who is one of the worst teams in the country.

Kato Nelson, who took over late in the season for Thomas Woodson, will remain Akron's starting QB for this bowl game. Nelson played well enough down the stretch to justify the decision. But it's an opportunistic Akron defense that has me more intrigued as this group ranked 2nd in interceptions and #16 in turnover margin. They also are stingy in the red zone, ranking 25th in points allowed per trip. The Zips were 6-3 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and even w/ the homefield edge, I feel FAU should be closer to a two TD favorite rather than three. 10* Akron

8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State (8:00 ET): This is our third and final matchup between Conference USA and the Sun Belt on Saturday and wouldn't you know I've got you covered w/ plays on all three! Middle Tennessee was a bit of a disappointment this year, which can be tied to key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, notably ones to QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James. They really struggled to score w/o that "dynamic duo," though Stockstill is now back and the offense averaged 36 PPG in the L4 games. (James remains out). But be aware that the return of Stockstill (coach's son) also coincided w/ the easy portion of the Blue Raiders' schedule. Three of the teams they faced during that stretch were: Old Dominion, Charlotte and UTEP, all of whom are among the very worst teams in the country. So I'm not expecting MTSU's offense to have a "banner day" here in the Camellia Bowl. Take the Under. 

Arkansas State blew its chance to finish w/ at least a share of the Sun Belt reg season crown when they lost to Troy in the final game. It was a brutal loss, one that saw them fall victim to multiple non-offensive scores by the Trojans, not to mention ASU had a MASSIVE edge in total yards (606-293!). The Red Wolves gave up the lead w/ only 17 seconds remaining (lost 32-25) after taking it w/ two TDs of their own in the final three minutes. It will be interesting to see how ASU performs here off such a brutal defeat. Will they be motivated or will there be a hangover? There is a chance MTSU comes in as the more motivated side here being that they are looking to snap a four-game bowl losing streak and are playing less than 300 miles from campus (game is in Birmingham, AL). 

These are old SBC foes and the last time they played was five years ago w/ ASU winning 45-0 in the swan song for now Auburn HC Gus Mahlzan. There's been an incredible amt of turnover at the head coaching position here in Jonesboro (4 in 6 years!), but now in his fourth year here, Blake Anderson is a good man for the job as he has the most wins (31) ever in program history for the first four years of a tenure (of course, he could be gone soon too!). Anderson has a top-notch QB to lean on in Justice Hansen, who threw a SBC record 34 TD passes this season. But like Middle Tennessee, be aware of the numbers ASU put up in games vs. non-bowl teams. The Red Wolves' five highest scoring efforts of this season (all 37+ pts) all came against atrocious opponents, such as LA Monroe, Lafayette, Ark Pine-Bluff, Coastal Carolina and GA Southern. Their one win over a bowl opponent came against New Mexico State! Both defenses here allow fewer than 25 PPG and I look for this to be a much lower scoring game than anticipated. 8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State

8* Western Kentucky (2:30 ET): This was quite the disappointing season down in Bowling Green, KY as the Hilltoppers finished only 6-6 SU, a clear dropoff from LY's team, which finished 11-3 SU and won the C-USA Title. They came into 2017 as favorites to repeat in the East Division, but like everyone else, they fell victim to the resurgence of FAU under Lane Kiffin. WKU lost to FAU, 42-28 (as six-point home underdogs), back on 10.28. That loss begat a second half decline which saw the Hilltoppers lose four of their final five games. But a disappointing season can still be salvaged here w/ a favorable matchup against what may very well be the WORST of all the bowl teams, Georgia State, who was not only outscored over the course of the year (1 of only 7 bowl teams that can say that), but was outscored by almost a full touchdown per game. That's easily the worst scoring differential among all 74 bowl teams. Lay the points here in the Cure Bowl.

This is hardly bowl season's most prestigious game, but Georgia State is probably "happy to be here." That's because they'd produced only ONE season w/ more than three victories going back to 2011. Ironically, that one season (2015) saw them end up here, in the Cure Bowl (played in Orlando), where they lost 27-16 to San Jose State. Most signs were pointing up though in Shawn Elliott's first year here as they played better than LY's 3-9 SU record showed (actually outgained SBC foes!), but the irony is that this Panthers' team is probably NOT as good as its 6-5 SU record. After becoming bowl eligible w/ a 33-30 win at Texas State on 11.11, they promptly were blown out in their final two reg seasons contests, 31-10 by Appalachian State and 24-10 by Idaho (both at home). The GSU offense averages less than 20 PPG (19.7 to be exact) and did not beat a single bowl team in the regular season. They played three (bowl teams) and were outscored 121-20 in those games. The truth about the Sun Belt is that the competition is VERY weak below the top three teams. 

Western Kentucky's inferior record (compared to LY) can be pinned on a couple things. One, they lost HC Jeff Brohm, who cashed in at Purdue. Two, they lost TWO 1300+ yard receivers. But QB Mike Whitie is still more than capable of producing a big day in the passing game as he led all C-USA players w/ an average of 303.3 YPG. Also, despite losing those two quality receivers from last season, the Hilltoppers are arguably deeper at the position this year w/ 11 different wideouts having 24+ catches. This is WKU's fourth consecutive year playing in a bowl and they've won each of the last three. They know what they're doing this time of year. Compare that to a poor Georgia State team that has NEVER won a bowl. WKU is also 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS coming off a bye while Georgia State is 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS in that role. 8* Western Kentucky

10* North Texas (1:00 ET): The Mean Green of North Texas have been pulling upsets all season long, so what's one more? They'll play Troy, a team that defied regression in 2017, in this year's edition of the New Orleans Bowl (played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). This is the third year in a row this bowl game matches up teams from C-USA and the Sun Belt w/ the former winning each of the L2 years. That bodes well here for UNT, who pulled three outright upsets during the regular season en route to a Championship Game appearance (lost 41-17 to FAU). I'm impressed by the fact the Mean Green were able to go 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS despite a -8 turnover differential. Defensively, they have their issues, but they also average more points per game than Troy. Take the points in this year's 1st bowl game. 

I said earlier that Troy "defied regression." What I mean by that is LY's team finished 10-3 SU (beat Ohio in the Dollar General Bowl) and became the 1st Sun Belt team to EVER be ranked when they were 8-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to eventual National Champ Clemson. Only two years removed from a 4-win season, you would have thought the Trojans would fail to match LY's season-win total, but instead they've matched it and now have a chance to exceed it! By far, the highlight of the regular season was a stunning 24-21 upset of LSU (in Death Valley!) as 20.5-pt dogs. They clinched a share of the SBC reg season crown (no Conf Title Game) by beating Arkansas State in the finale, 32-25, in Jonesboro. That game was won in the final 17 seconds w/ a TD and subsequent 2-pt conversion. However, be aware that the Trojans were VERY lucky to win that day as they were outgained 606-293! If not for TWO non-offensive scores, they would not even have been in position to "steal" the game late.

Though 9-1 SU as a favorite, Troy has covered only four of those games. Similarly, North Texas won all six times it was favored in the reg season. But, as mentioned before, they were a pretty successful underdog as well. Troy allows only 17.5 PPG, but as we saw in the last game, they can give up plenty of yardage. The North Texas offense comes in averaging 467 yards and 35.9 points per contests. So, getting points, they are an attractive choice. Few even expected HC Seth Littrell to have his team in this position, but after inheriting a 1-11 team from two seasons ago, he's improved the win total in Denton B2B years. Remember the Mean Green actually played in a Bowl last season, despite being 5-7 SU (weren't enough eligible teams!). They covered in the Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. Army, losing only 38-31 as 11-pt pups. Now they look for their 1st bowl win since '13. Led by QB Mason Fine, this is the best offense that UNT has EVER fielded as seven different receivers recorded at least 24 catches. Fine set school records for passing yardage and touchdowns. The dog will score enough to cover here. 10* North Texas

10* Under Army/Navy (3:00 ET): Games between the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) have a history of staying Under the total (29-8-1 since '05!), which really shouldn't be a surprise given the style of offense these teams run. The run-heavy approach leads to the clock running far more often than not and these games are usually low possession affairs. Furthermore, the fact that the defenses face this type of offense in practice makes preparation far easier. So, I wasn't shocked to see the O/U line for this year's Army-Navy tilt bet down as soon as it opened. But this is a case where oddsmakers can't make the number low enough. None of the last five matchups have seen more than 41 total pts scored. Take the Under. 

We all remember what happened LY as Army ended its historic 14-game losing streak in the rivalry w/ a 21-17 win as four-point underdogs. Putting aside the history for a moment, I still can't believe Army was getting points in that spot as it was a HORRIBLE situation for Navy, coming off a loss in the AAC Champ Game the Saturday prior. Army had its best team ever under Jeff Monken LY and was off a double bye. Once again this year Army is off a double bye (last played on Nov 18th!) and they now have a chance to exceed LY's win total as they come in at 8-3 SU. Navy is just 6-5 SU, off B2B losses to Notre Dame and Houston. In both games, the Midshipmen failed to top 17 points. 

Army's scoring average is way up this year (31.2 PPG), a high in the Monken-era. But that's a little skewed due to games against lesser competition such as FCS Fordham and Rice. In five of their 11 games, they've scored 21 pts or less, including the Air Force game, which they won in shutout fashion (21-0!). Their last game (52-49 loss to North Texas) was a wild one, but that type of game has zero chance of being repeated here. Navy has seen the Under go 5-1 this season outside of Annapolis. Their game vs. Air Force was a wild one (48-45), but the AFA also threw for a stunning 257 yds that day. Army has attempted a grand total of four passes in its last three games. For some reason, both teams chose to pass a lot against Temple, but other than that there's no instance of Army throwing for more than 80 yds in a game this year. Four games, they haven't had a single passing yard! 10* Under Army/Navy

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Wisconsin is unbeaten and in "pole position" (currently #4) to make the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State is the betting favorite here and for good reason. I've said this before - and it bears repeating - that the Buckeyes would likely be favored over every team in America (on a neutral field) besides Alabama. The Big 10 Championship Game is played at a neutral site (Indianapolis), so the line is no surprise to me whatsoever. Now the underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this game, but the situation here is a little unique in that it's the DOG attracting the far higher ticket count. Yet, despite that, we saw the line continue to rise early in the week. That's typically a tell-tale sign that "sharper" dollars are on the favorite and that's who I'm rolling w/ Sat night.

The big news out of Columbus this week is that QB JT Barrett will play Saturday, despite having had surgery (on his knee) Sunday. The knee was apparently injured by an unknown cameraman on the sidelines of the Michigan game. The Buckeyes still were able to beat their rival, mind you, despite being w/o Barrett for a significant portion of the game and spotting the Wolverines a 14-0 lead. I'll note that, by the numbers, Ohio State was - by far - the best team in the Big 10 in the regular season. They outgained conference foes by a whopping 254 YPG (nearly 2:1 margin), outscoring them by 26.4 PPG. All you need to know is that they were favored by double digits at Michigan while Wisconsin was just a touchdown favorite over the Wolverines - in Madison. 

It is absolutely okay to question Wisconsin's schedule. Their best win may or may not be Florida Atlantic. If not the Owls, then it would be Northwestern and that too was an early season affair. They caught Iowa the week after the Hawkeyes stunned the Buckeyes and that game was in Madison. So was Michigan, and they were down in the 2nd half before Wolverines' QB Brandon Peters was knocked out. Badgers fans will want to point to how "strong" their team is in trenches, but Ohio State is actually stronger across both the offensive and defensive lines. Undefeated teams in November/December the L4 seasons are just 42% ATS across College Football. Worse yet for Wisconsin is Urban Meyer's 30-17-1 ATS record vs. ranked opponents. This won't be the 59-0 massacre that the Buckeyes laid on the Badgers three years ago, but OSU will win comfortably. 10* Ohio State

8* Fresno State (7:45 ET): Of all the Conference Championship Games on Saturday, the matchup in the Mountain West just might be the oddest. Like most, it's a regular season rematch. But where this one differs is the intial matchup took place just last week and the teams had NOTHING to play for. Fresno State won 28-17 (as 6.5-pt dogs), but that was at home and it was pretty clear they were the ones taking the game far more seriously. Those expecting Boise to bounce back have to be delighted at the line for Saturday night's rematch on the "Smurf Turf," but there's also an inherent danger in simply expecting the Broncos to "turn it on" here. Note that FSU was just as dominant, if not moreso, in MWC play this year. I'll take the points. 

Really, the fact that Fresno State is even in this game is pretty remarkable. The Bulldogs were 1-11 SU in 2016 and while most metrics were "pointing up" for this year, you still must tip your cap to the job done here by HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?) in year one. Tedford did inherit 16 returning starters, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball, which is his speciality. However, it has been the defense that has really impressed. This group ranks 12th in the nation, allowing just 17.3 points per game. That is stunning turnaround in one year's time as LY, the Bulldogs allowed 30.9 PPG. They are especially stout against the run, allowing just 117.3 YPG. Last week, they held Boise State to just 3.5 yards per carry and 107 yds total over land. 

Fresno State outscored its Mt West foes by an average of 14.5 PPG this year and outgained them by over 100 yards per game. Boise State's MOV in conference play was identical, but they outgained Mt West opponents "only" by 84.9 YPG. The fact that Fresno State allowed only 13.1 PPG in league play is impressive, no matter how you slice it, and leads me to believe it's going to be a low-scoring affair Sat night. Only once - in an upset loss to UNLV - have the Bulldogs surrendered more than 21 pts to a MWC opponent this year. That makes taking the points seem like a "slam dunk" to me. FSU has defied the oddsmakers all year long (9-2-1 ATS) in taking a division that most thought should simply be handed to San Diego State at the start of the year. And so much for homefield advantage; Boise State is just 4-13 ATS its L17 home games. Take the points. 8* Fresno State

8* Auburn (4:00 ET): Like many games on Conference Championship Weekend, it's a regular season rematch in the SEC w/ Auburn taking on Georgia. Much has changed since that first meeting down in Jordan-Hare, namely the Tigers are now the team in the driver's seat. It all started w/ them destroying UGA last month, 40-17 as a 2.5-pt home dog. Now they're a 2.5-point fave on a neutral field. That's justified though given how one-sided the regular season matchup was. Georgia isn't the only #1 team that Auburn has beaten over the last month as last week (also at home) they downed rival Alabama, 26-14 (+4.5) in the "Iron Bowl." Those anticipating any kind of letdown here should note that the Iron Bowl winner has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in SEC Title Games (5-2 ATS) since 2009. Auburn is too hot right now; lay it. 

Since losing to Auburn (only loss this year), UGA has rolled two opponents by a combined score of 80-20, but that was Kentucky and Georgia Tech. The 'Dawgs did beat one Top 10 team during the regular season, Notre Dame, but that was by just a point and doesn't look so impressive now w/ the Fighting Irish having since been blown out by Miami and Stanford. Remember that this team has a true frosh at QB as well. Even having played Auburn once, I'm not convinced the coaching staff can make the necessary adjustments along the offensive line given the discrepancy in personnel they face going against this Auburn defensive line. Georgia avoided two of the big boys in the SEC West (Alabama, LSU) and faced only three ranked teams all year. That matters. 

With their dominant defensive line likely to hold the Georgia offense in check, I'm not as worried about the potential absence of Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson (who went for 167 yds in the reg season matchup). Johnson is listed as probable anyway though and the Tigers have depth at the position. QB Jarrett Stidham continues to improve by the week and led the SEC w/ a 68.5 completion percentage. Three weeks ago, I said that this Auburn team could very well make a playoff run and right now there is no doubt that they are one of the four best teams in America. Looking at their two losses, one was close (early in the year) at Clemson (current #1) and the other saw them blow a 20-0 lead (at LSU). It won't be as lopsided as the first go-around, but the Tigers will win here and move on to the CFP. 8* Auburn

8* Oklahoma (12:30 ET): Like many of the Conference Championship Games this weekend, this is a regular season rematch where the underdog is playing w/ revenge. In the case of TCU-Oklahoma, I played the Sooners in Norman back on November 11th when they were about a TD favorite. Now they are laying the same, only at a neutral setting. This might cause reasonable minds to believe the value is on the Horned Frogs here, but considering the ease w/ which OU disposed of them three weeks ago, I say "not so fast." It was a 533-424 edge in total yardage for the Sooners in the 38-20 win and take note they didn't even score in the second half. This offense is simply going to be too good again for TCU to keep up. Lay the points. 

Oklahoma is #1 in the country, averaging 594 yards per game. They are #4 in scoring at 45.3 points per game. I took the Over in their game last week, which won easily (cashed early 3rd quarter!), yet even I was amazed by how efficient the Sooners were there. Understand that they possessed the ball for less than 25 minutes of actual game time, yet ran up 646 total yards and 59 points! Once again, with the game out of hand, they didn't even bother scoring in the fourth quarter. They scored on each of their first NINE drives of the game, eight of those being touchdowns, and it could have been 9 for 9 if they didn't run out of time at the end of the first half (had to settle for a field goal). As good as TCU HC Gary Patterson is at coaching defense, I wouldn't want to be stepping in front of this OU offense right now. 

TCU's only regular season loss besides OU was to Iowa State, who also beat the Sooners. Don't get me wrong; I have a tremendous amt of respect for the Horned Frogs. I even had them as my top CFB win total this season (at Over 7.5), which cashed easily. The Over on their game last week was my top CFB play of the weekend as they put up 45 points on a downtrodden Baylor team. But, again, Oklahoma is just on a different level right now. They put up 62 points and over 700 total yards against Oklahoma State last month and that was in Stillwater. When facing an opponent that has a winning record, the Sooners are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons. They are also 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The TCU defense will also be w/o safety Nick Orr here - due to suspension - for the first half. By the time he returns, it could be too late for the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma ran for 200 yds in the first meeting, the most allowed in any game by the TCU defense all season. 8* Oklahoma

10* Under Stanford/USC (8:00 ET): From a pure power rankings perspective, there does appear to be some value here on Stanford, as most rankings I follow actually have them as the better team on a neutral field. Then there's the fact that the North Division Champ has OWNED the Pac 12 Title Game, winning all six instances. But, at the same time, there's "no running from" what the Trojans did to the Cardinal back in September when they won 42-24 at the Coliseum (as a 3.5-pt favorite). Furthermore, there is no denying - that situationally - this spot favors USC. After playing 12 straight reg season games w/o a bye, the Trojans are off one here and that's a big advantage. So even though I was on Stanford LW (big win over Notre Dame), I'm refraining from making a play on the side. Let's look at the total instead. 

USC had over 600 yds total offense (623 to be exact) in the earlier win over Stanford. That's an almost unheard of number against a David Shaw defense. It's not the only time USC has gone over 600 yds this season (did it to Arizona) nor is it the lone time going over 40 points (did it four times total). But here would probably be an appropriate time to bring up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Earlier I spoke of the bye being USC's "friend" in this spot. But what if they start slow? Also, there is the fact that QB Sam Darnold, good as he is, turns the ball over more than you'd like to see. He already has three more interceptions than he did all of last year. Plus, his overall completion percentage is slightly down. I think Stanford's defense is going to play a lot better in this rematch and won't be surprised to see Southern Cal fail to finish off some drives, which is always key in betting an Under.

Bryce Love did play for Stanford last week and that was huge as the Cardinal upset Notre Dame 38-20 in Palo Alto. That was their highest scoring game in more than a month. Three of the previous four games saw the Cardinal offense fail to top 21 pts. It should also be noted the Stanford was outgained by ND (415-328), only to win the turnover battle, 3-0. QB KJ Costello threw a career-high 4 TD passes, something I seriously doubt we'll see again here. Stanford's final 2 TD drives both started inside the ND 30-yd line. Defensively, both touchdowns allowed were long pass plays, which is uncharacteristic for this defense. Love is of course still battling an ankle injury, which is likely to limit his effectiveness Friday night. I think we'll see a much lower-scoring game here compared to the first meeting. 10* Under Stanford/USC

analysis soon

8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma (3:45 ET): With one team (WVU) w/o its starting QB (lost to injury) and the other (Oklahoma) w/o its (likely Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield) for an undisclosed amt of time due to his sideline behavior LW, the knee-jerk reaction here would be to call for an Under. But I've always fashioned myself as a "contrarian" of sorts and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see more points scored than expected. Stripped of his captaincy, Mayfield could miss as little as a series. Kyler Murray will start the game and has experience playing two years ago while at Texas A&M. This Sooners' offense leads the nation w/ 588.7 yards per game and is #5 in scoring at 44.0 points per game. They've gone over 40 four of the last five weeks, the exception seeing them score "only" 38 against a very good TCU defense. 

West Virginia is in a bit of a dicier situation w/ QB Will Grier lost for the year. They scored only 14 pts last week in an upset loss to Texas in Morgantown and that was w/ Grier playing a quarter. They gained a season-low 295 total yards. But that Texas' defense is a lot more stout than Oklahoma's. In Grier's absence, in steps Chris Chugunov. He threw for 189 yards in relief of Grier last week and I expect a MUCH better showing here now that he's not being thrust into playing w/o preparation. A full week of practice can go a long way. Even after last week's 41-3 thumping of putrid Kansas, OU is still allowing an average of 25.2 points per game. 

It appears as if I'm not the only "contrarian" when it comes to playing this total as despite a majority of tickets being written on the Under, the O/U line has gone up during the course of the week. That's usually a good sign. I think we can look for the Sooners to score plenty here as Mayfield should get into the game sooner rather than later. They have three receivers w/ 649+ yards and two running backs that will have 600+ yards rushing. With West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen largely runs a "plug and play" system, meaning any QB he's recruited should pan out. This is an offense that has averaged 544 YPG on the road this season. Last year, the game was 56-28 (in Oklahoma's favor). The year before, here in Norman, it was 44-24 (again in OU's favor). In fact, four of the previous five meetings have seen at least 68 total pts scored. 8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma

8* Alabama (3:30 ET): This year's installment of the Iron Bowl is as anticipated as any Alabama-Auburn matchup in recent memory. Certainly, Auburn fans will recall the 2013 game when they upset a top-ranked Bama team here at Jordan-Hare (as 10-pt underdogs) on the now infamous "kick-six." This year, the Crimson Tide again enter the regular season finale unbeaten and ranked #1 in the country (3rd time in last 5 seasons!) and control their destiny for the CFP. But so does #5 Auburn, who would also be in the CFB if they win the next two weeks. The lookahead line for this game was as high as Bama -10 before Auburn's thumping of Georgia two weeks ago. That and a number of injuries for the Tide have conspired to drop it pretty dramatically, to the point where I now feel the value is all on Alabama. Lay the points. 

Both teams got to enjoy "tune-ups" last week. Alabama shutout FCS foe Mercer 56-0 while Auburn beat La Monroe (one of the worst FCS teams) 42-14. It was what happened the prior Saturday, however, that has people believing in the dog here. Auburn absolutely crushed then #1 Georgia 40-17 (as 2.5-pt underdogs) while Alabama survived its lone real scare of the season, winning 31-24 at Mississippi State (Tide were over +100 in total yds). But let's not forget that Auburn also has blown a 20-point lead and lost at LSU and was dominated by Clemson early in the season. They have lost five of the last six Iron Bowls with Alabama's victories coming an average of 24 PPG. Last year, it was 30-12 in Tuscaloosa w/ Bama as a 17-pt favorite. 

The Crimson Tide do have some very real injuries to be concerned about as they are down FOUR linebackers, which could mean trouble facing sensational Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson. But Nick Saban recruits so damn well that this is the only program in America that can successfully endure such attrition. Offensively, Bama is far more balance and dynamic than Georgia, which I believe will be the key to this game. Remember that UGA had a true frosh starting QB on the road. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing yards (270.3 per game), yards per carry (6.03) and rushing touchdowns (35) and QB Jalen Hurts is a tremendous dual threat. Auburn has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well and, to me, so many people are thinking upset here that I feel it's best to go on the other side w/ the most proven commodity in the sport. All but two Bama wins this year have been by double digits and one that wasn't was a game they allowed a TD in the final minute. 8* Alabama

8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): One of these years, Jim Harbaugh is actually going to beat Ohio State. It just won't be this year. I'm still bullish on Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, but this clearly wasn't going to be his year as he brought back the least experienced team in the country and has had to cycle through three quarterbacks due to a combination of injury and ineptitude. There were some metrics that suggested a better season could take place for Michigan, but the bottom line is that they always seem to suffer one upset (Michigan State this year) and never win as an underdog. Last week's somewhat sad showing in Madison (lost 24-10 to Wisconsin) dropped Harbaugh to 0-5 SU as a 'dog at his alma mater and he's covered the spread in just one of those games. Ohio State would be favored over every team in the country not named Alabama and is the play here.

The Buckeyes come in ranked #9 in the latest CFP Rankings, but still have a shot at making the playoff if everything breaks right for them. A number of teams ahead of them are going to lose in the next two weeks, so if they win here and next week's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin, there could be an argument for them to be in the top four. While I view them as a top four team on paper, it will be hard for me to buy an argument considering they were blown out twice - by Oklahoma (at home) and Iowa (ouch!). But looking at the raw numbers, you'll find a team that has outscored its Big 10 foes by an amazing 227 points (Wisconsin #2 at +133) and outgained them by an average of 280 yards per game. They've scored 48 or more points SEVEN times in 2017. For the sake of comparison, Michigan has yet to top 36 points in any game this season.

The Wolverines enter this game likely having to start John O'Korn at QB, which is too bad because redshirt freshman Brandon Peters was playing well before being knocked out of last week's game. Tests did come back negative for Peters, so he could conceivably play here, but how effective would he be? Original starter Wilton Speight was knocked out of the Purdue game back in September and hasn't played since. Michigan has a great defense (#9 in efficiency), but Ohio State isn't far behind (#14) and the gap on the other side of the ball is so great that it really doesn't matter. Of course, the Buckeyes have won 12 of the past 13 meetings, including all five under Urban Meyer. In fact, the lone loss to Michigan in those L13 seasons came in the year w/ interim Luke Fickell at the helm. Look for OSU to roll. 8* Ohio State

8* South Florida (3:30 ET): Coming into the year, we all thought this regular season finale would be USF's shot at clinching a spot in the AAC Championship Game and sure enough, that's the case. However, no one could have envisioned that they'd be a double-digit DOG to UCF, who is unbeaten and vying to be the "Group of Five" representative in a "New Year's Six Bowl." (In all likelihood, whomever wins the AAC will be that rep). Memphis (also ranked) is waiting in the wings to play the winner of this game next week. Tip your cap to the job done at Central Florida by Scott Frost, who likely lands himself a higher paying job (Nebraska?) for next season. However, let's not discredit what Charlie Strong has done up the road in Tampa. USF actually had the "bullseye" on them at the start of the year as they were favored to run the table and be in the position UCF is currently in. The Bulls did lose once, to Houston (by four), but that's it. Underdogs for the 1st time in 2017, I'll take them plus the points in this de fact AAC East Championship Game. 

South Florida's lone loss saw them outgain Houston 462-397 and that yardage edge was even greater before they gave up a 9-play, 49-yard drive in the final two minutes to lose 28-24 (were 10.5-pt favorites). Save for that game, it's pretty much been "smooth sailing" for the Bulls. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double digits. Yet, just to illustrate how much the market has "feared" them, they actually come into this game on a 4-game ATS losing streak. Last week saw them  "slip by" Tulsa 27-20, though they actually spent a good deal of the game up double digits. Keep an eye on QB Quinton Flowers, who is every bit the equal of his UCF counterpart McKenzie Milton (#2 in FBS pass efficiency), if not superior. Flowers is 2nd in the nation in QBR (trailing only Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield) and is the 7th player in FBS history to have a career w/ 7,000+ yds passing and 3,000+ yds rushing. 

UCF has outscored its seven AAC opponents by 165 points while USF is at +122. That's a somewhat negligible difference. Even w/ the unbeaten record and playing in Orlando, I just don't see why the Golden Knights are favored by this many points. It is USF that actually has a slight edge on defense as they rank #1 in the conference in both points (19.9) and yards (323.5) per game allowed while UCF is #2 in both categories (20.5, 373.6). UCF has hardly had the most challenging schedule and got a clear break earlier in the year, hosting Memphis in a rescheduled date (Hurricane Irma). Here, it is USF w/ a pretty clear scheduling advantage. They get two extra days to prepare as they last played Thursday while UCF was at Temple Saturday. The Bulls are 6-2 SU in the eight all-time meetings, including a 48-31 win and cover (as 10-pt chalk) LY. 8* South Florida

10* Over Baylor/TCU (12:00 ET): These two Texas rivals are in VERY different places right now. Baylor HC Matt Rhule inherited a complete mess, left over from the Art Briles' regime. A Bears team that won 10+ games four times from 2011-2015 dropped to 7-6 SU last year, a direct result of Briles' misdeeds. We knew it would be "tough sledding" for Rhule in year one, but I don't think that anyone Waco foresaw a 1-10 record w/ ZERO Big 12 victories. Yet that's the reality entering this, their season finale. Meanwhile, coming off their own down year (6-7 SU in '16), TCU was on my shortlist for Most Improved Teams in the country (they were my top win total pick at Over 7.5) and sure enough, Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs have delivered w/ a 9-2 SU record. A win Friday and they would earn a rematch w/ Oklahoma in the Big X11 Championship Game (back this year!) next week.

Given what's at stake for TCU and the state of Baylor, the pointspread is predictably high here. It actually may not even be high enough as according to my own power rankings, there are at least couple points of value w/ the Horned Frogs here. But even though I cashed Oklahoma last week minus a huge number, I typically don't like laying this many points and won't in this situation. If there's one commonality these teams share (besides both hailing from Texas), it's that they've been going Under a lot in Big XII play. TCU, thanks to not allowing a single second half TD in the last five games, has gone Under in seven straight games. Baylor is riding a four-game Under streak. That confluence has created a situation here where the O/U line is probably a lot lower than it ought to be and thus Over is going to be my play Friday as TCU should have no problems scoring here and could possibly go Over the total by themselves.

Playing w/o QB Kenny Hill and RB Darius Anderson (out for year), the Horned Frogs beat Texas Tech 27-3 last week in Lubbock. Despite the lopsided victory, they were actually outgained as they threw for only 85 yards. Of course, when you allow only three points, you don't need to pass much. The offense did run for 200+ yards, which is impressive. Here in Ft. Worth, TCU averages 43.4 PPG for the season, so like I said earlier, they are more than capable of sending this game Over, almost by themselves. HC Patterson has said that Hill is probable to play. Teams are relishing the opportuniity to beat up downtrodden Baylor right now and last year saw the Horned Frogs hang 62 on them in Waco. The Baylor defense is allowing over 450 YPG for the season. As for getting "any help" from the Baylor offense, I suspect that when the game inevitably gets out of reach late, there will be opportunities for them to score. They do come in averaging 24.5 points per game. 10* Over Baylor/TCU

10* Mississippi (7:30 ET): Mississippi State survived last week in what was a horrendous spot for them, one week removed from a near upset of #1 Alabama and they had this, their rivalry game, on deck (on a short week no less). Dan Mullen's team came from 14-0 down to beat Arkansas, on the road, 28-21 (though they failed to cover as 2 TD favorites). As for rival Ole Miss, they were not as fortunate last weekend, losing to Texas A&M 31-24 in the Oxford finale (shutout in the 2nd half!). Neither team has anything to play for here (Ole Miss bowl ineligible), but you can throw the records out in a rivalry game (the rare cliche that holds true!), thus taking the points is usually a good idea. That's what I'll do here as it's a really big number. 

Tensions are going to be very high Thanksgiving night in Starkville. Needless to say, this game will not be reminiscent of the Pilgrims and Native Americans sitting down for dinner. This rivalry has taken on a really nasty tone w/ it being a Miss State beat writer that was responsible for former, disgraced Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze's firing when he uncovered Freeze was calling an escort service. So don't think the Rebels won't be trying here. Furthermore, there is the embarrassment left over from last season when the Bulldogs came to Oxford and beat them 55-20 as 10-point underdogs. That did result in the Rebels not making a bowl. Though an injury to QB Shea Patterson in essence "wrecked" their season, I repeat, the underdog is going to be motivated here. It's a rivalry game and a nasty one at that.

Miss State is going to go a decent bowl game and could win 9+ games for a third time in four seasons. But that's pretty much their fate right there. Yes, they'll be motivated to beat their rival as well. But, the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is the hang up for me. Yes, it's true that when the Bulldogs win, they have typically won big. But it's quite the swing to see them go from 10-pt dogs to more than a two score favorite in one year's time against the same opponent. They'd lost the previous two years and came in ranked both times. Too many things can happen here that would prevent MSU from covering. At the very worst, I expect the backdoor to be open late in the game. 10* Mississippi

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is (very) bad, but after having their dreams of bowl eligibilty dashed last week, I have to figure Miami is pretty crushed emotionally. Therefore, I want zero part of laying this kind of big number (on the road, no less) w/ the RedHawks in what is basically a meaningless regular season finale for them. Ball State at least has the motivation of wanting to send it's seniors out w/ a win in the final home game of the season. The Cardinals also have revenge from a one-point loss in Oxford in LY's reg season finale. Miami scored the GW TD w/ just 5:44 to go and Ball State had a chance to answer, but a 90-yard kickoff return was called back due to holding and they lost 21-20 as a touchdown underdog. The situation is MUCH different this year w/ the RedHawks not having anything to play for (were trying to become bowl eligible LY). Thus, I'll grab the big number. 

This entire season has been one giant disappointment for Miami. They came into 2017 being touted as co-favorites (along w/ Ohio) to win the MAC East after winning their final six regular season games a year ago. They were the first team EVER in NCAA history to open 0-6 and close 6-6 (lost bowl to Miss St). But the magic just wasn't there this year. They've suffered four losses by five points or less, the most crushing of which came last week at home to Eastern Michigan, 27-24. The RedHawks defense allowed 454 total yards in the loss. Despite leading at halftime (17-13), the team really had no shot at winning as they trailed by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. They've now covered just one of their previous seven games to fall to 2-9 ATS on the year, tied for the worst mark in the country at the betting window. 

Now let's get some of the ugly stuff out of the way. Ball State has lost its last eight games (0-7 vs. the MAC), all of them by at least 16 points. The closest they've finished to any conference opponent came LW, hosting Buffalo, as they "only" lost 40-24 and actually covered the spread, thereby snapping a six-game ATS losing skid. But if the players have any pride at all, they'll "show up" in this final game in Muncie. I should point out that Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year, losing both games outright. 10* Ball State

10* USC (8:00 ET): They say to "throw away" the records in a rivalry game, but in this game, the respective records actually understate the advantage one team has over the other. USC comes in a 9-2 SU, having not had a bye week all season. While they were blown out by Notre Dame last month, their only other loss came on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game in which they lost THREE different offensive lineman to injury. The Trojans had been a disappointment at the betting window much of the year, but not lately as they come into the final riding a 3-game ATS win streak. (I had them LW vs. Colorado). UCLA is 5-5 SU, needing a win for bowl eligibility, but despite having QB Josh Rosen, they're simply overmatched in this spot. The Bruins' previous efforts on the road have been nothing short of disastrous and Saturday night will be no different. 

You are almost certainly aware of the QB battle in this game as USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen came into this season as perhaps the two most highly touted pro prospects at their position. Rosen's resume has taken a slight hit due to injury and his team's ineptitude, but like Darnold, better days lay ahead. (An interesting sidenote: the respective fathers were once a doctor (Rosen) and janitor (Darnold) at the same hospital). Darnold has certainly had the better year statistically and has the better supporting cast to lean on. Especially when he hands the ball off to RB Ronald Jones II (552 yards L3 games), who should "slice and dice" a UCLA rush defense which ranks DEAD LAST in the country (302.3 YPG allowed!).

Both offenses are averaging slightly more than 35 PPG, but the key here lies on the defensive end where USC is allowing roughly 12 PPG fewer and that the game takes place at the Coliseum. I already talked about how Darnold and Jones should have their way w/ this UCLA defense, but let's come back to that. The Bruins have been nothing short of abhorrent in road games this year, going 0-5 SU, allowing 49 points and 533 yards per game. Yes, Rosen has missed time. But that's still no excuse for these hideous performances. Last week, they were very lucky to "only" give up 37 points at home to Arizona State, who had jumped out to a 14-0 lead before settling for too many field goals in the second half. USC has not lost a home game this season, outscoring their visitors by 13.6 points per over the six games. The Trojans have beaten the Bruins by 19 and 22 points each of the L2 years (had lost 5 in a row previous to that) and mark my words - this team is going to win the Pac 12. 10* USC

8* Under Kentucky/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for UGA to be laying this many points as they come in off a humiliating loss LW to Auburn, 40-10, as a defense which ranked among the best in the country was torched for almost 500 total yards. That loss sent the Bulldogs tumbling down from their #1 ranking in the CFP to #7. Now they find themselves in the unenviable spot of "biding their time" between now and the SEC Champ Game (will play either Alabama or Auburn) while hoping just to skirt by the next two opponents. Normally, I would consider a play plus the points here, but I don't have that much respect for a Kentucky squad that is nowhere near as good as its 7-3 SU record might indicate. Therefore, to the total we go and I'm thinking Under.

The SEC is having itself a down year. There are five Top 25 teams in the league, four of them in the West. Kentucky has been one of the real beneficiaries of the "down year" as they've avoided virtually all of the big names from the West (save for Miss St, who clobbered them 45-7). Strangely, despite the better than expected straight up record, the 'Cats are only 3-7 at the betting window. They did cover LW in an impressive 44-21 win over Vanderbilt (as 2.5-pt road dogs), but as we saw in the trip to Starkville, I'd expect a pretty substantial decline in offensive production here. Mississippi State held them to only 260 total yds in that game and let's also note UK was held to only 228 total yds by Eastern Michigan and 254 total yards by Southern Miss. 

Georgia's defense should be supremely motivated after what happened last week. Despite the shellacking LW, the Bulldogs still do rank #2 in the land in def efficiency, which should tell you how well they'd performed prior to the one loss. In fact, it was just the second time all season that they'd allowed more than 19 pts in a game! They are giving up averages of only 14.5 points and 277 yards per game for the season. So a Kentucky offense which has played on a natural surface only twice all year and averaged just 15.0 PPG in those contests, should be held in relative check here. The only thing holding UGA back is the offense, which can run the ball effectively, but is still being led by a relatively inexperienced signal-caller. The gameplan was very conservative last week and it cost them. Kirby Smart knows he can get away w/ being conservative again this week though. QB Jacob Fromm completed less than 50% of his passes LW and for just 184 total yards. 8* Under Kentucky/Georgia

8* Oklahoma (3:30 ET): I fashion myself as a bit of a 'contrarian,' which many times leads me to take "unpopular" sides, most of them being underdogs. But here, my view is most are going to call for #4 Oklahoma to be in letdown mode following its impressive 38-20 win over TCU last week. Trust me, if anyone knows just how well the OU played Saturday night, it's me as I chose to lay the points with them and came away even more impressed w/ Lincoln Riley's outfit. All the Sooners have to do now is win out, which would include the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. I understand why many would consider this a letdown spot and it's a lot of points to lay. But sometimes you just have to look at the two teams and realize one is vastly superior than the other in every conceivable way. Thus, I'll lay the big number. 

How can a team possibly be asked to lay this many points on the conference road? Well, let's start w/ the opponent. Kansas, as I'm sure you know, is atrocious. Really, that's putting things pretty kindly as the Jayhawks have lost nine in a row since beating FCS school SE Missouri State in the season opener. This is not their first time getting 30 or more points in Big 12 play. Earlier in the year, they were +37 at TCU and lost 43-0. Last week, they were +31.5 at Texas and did manage to cover, losing only 42-27 in a game where the total yardage discrepancy was actually not sizable (371-364). But note that Kansas did score a meaningless late TD w/ only 11 seconds remaining, which capped an 80-yard drive. Prior to that, they had only 264 total yards of offense. They also trailed 28-7 after the first quarter. In conference play, the Jayhawks are already being outscored by an even 31.0 PPG. Now they play the best that the Big XII has to offer. 

Oklahoma has actually covered four of the previous six times it has been favored by 31 or more points. One of those came LY, hosting Kansas as 40-pt chalk, and they won 56-3. A year later and I'm not sure why anyone would expect anything different. The Sooners' defense hasn't always been great this season, but the offense can probably name its point total. QB Baker Mayfield is going to win the Heisman (book it!) and could use this game for some additional "highlight material." Consider that the Kansas offense has been shut out twice in Big 12 play (by Iowa State and TCU) and held to only nine points by Baylor (yikes). 8* Oklahoma

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): Northwestern actually finds itself among the Top 25 in the latest installment of the CFP rankings, but to me, it's a "token gesture" by the committee for the Wildcats winning five straight games. Upon closer inspection, that ranking simply does not hold up as the win streak includes three overtime wins. One of them, against Michigan State, is the most "quality of the bunch but then again we saw just how overrated Sparty was last week (told you!). Against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Wildcats were outscored 64-31. Then there was that early season 41-17 loss to Duke, which keeps getting uglier w/ each passing week. I'm not saying that Minnesota is the best opponent N'western will have faced over the month, but they're going to be a very motivated team Saturday in Evanston simply based on the fact they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Take the points here. 

Minnesota hosts Wisconsin next week, so if they want to get bowl eligible, this week is probably their best chance to do it. I was impressed by the way the Gophers came out last week and destroyed Nebraska 54-21, rolling up 500+ total yds of offense in the process. It was their most points scored in any Big 10 game since 2006, so perhaps PJ Fleck's offense is starting "to take." After a 3-0 SU start, the Big 10 portion of the schedule has not really gone as well as HC Fleck would have hoped in his 1st season here (2-5 SU), but making a bowl is still a milestone worth achieving. The Gophers have basically had the opposite luck of N'western when it comes to close games this year, at least in conference play, as three of their five losses have come by a TD or less. Believe it or not, but for the year, Minnesota has a better scoring differential compared to Northwestern!

Despite being 5-2 SU in Big 10 play, N'western is only outscoring foes by two points per game while outgaining them by just three yards per game! Certainly, Pat Fitzgerald's team will remember what happened in this game last year as they were stomped 29-12 up in Minneapolis. However, this is simply NOT a team I'd want to choose as a favorite. Consider that it's been more than three seasons since they've been favored by 7.5 to 10 pts in Big 10 play and they lost that game outright (to Illinois) w/ bowl eligibility on the line (reg season finale in '14). Minnesota has a strong pass defense (183.9 YPG allowed), which is 3rd best in the Big 10, and that should be enough to at least keep them in this one until the very end. 8* Minnesota

10* UNLV (9:30 ET): Last Friday, UNLV hosted BYU in a game that was pretty important for their bowl eligibility. They opened as a favorite, but by kickoff had moved to a slight dog. Turns out that the smart money (and I) were right as the Rebels lost 31-21 to the Cougars even w/ a slight edge in total yardage (447-425). The game really hinged on UNLV being -2 in turnover differential. That result now leaves them in a scenario where they must win their final two reg season games to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. Up first in New Mexico, who just one year removed from a 9-4 SU season (including bowl win!) appears to have given up on HC Bob Davie and his antiquated coaching tactics. The Lobos, who have no shot at bowl eligibility, have dropped five straight to fall to 3-7 SU on the year. With more to play for, I'm backing UNLV in this spot.

UNLV never led last week. Despite that, they were never really out of the game, which swung on a Johnny Stanton INT in the end zone in the first half. At the time, the game was still scoreless. BYU would go onto score touchdowns on each of its next three drives to take control. Now I really haven't necessarily changed my evaluation of the Rebels from last week. Rather, this play has everything to do w/ the opposition. Also, as noted in last week's analysis, UNLV had won B2B games prior to the BYU loss. It's been a long, hard climb for Tony Sanchez's team, whose season started w/ a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. I think that they really want this bowl berth and will be the more motivated of the two sides Friday night. 

Meanwhile, motivation may be approaching its nadir here in the Davie era (6th year in Albuquerque). Reports began to surface early on this season that Davie had lost the locker room over alleged player mistreatment. We've yet to confirm that validity of those claims, but it sure seems as if things went south in a hurry. Four times in the five-game losing streak, the Lobos have lost by double digits. Granted, no one expected them to win at Texas A&M last week, but a 55-19 loss to a team w/ its own coaching issues was pretty bad. The Lobos were outgained 562-144. This defense has not been good much of the year and the running game which carried the offense a year ago has declined from 1st to 34th in yards per attempt. Turnovers have also been a major issue w/ 15 fumbles lost (2nd most in FBS) and a -15 margin overall. UNLV is 4-2 as an underdog this year while New Mexico is 0-4 ATS when favored, so keep an eye on that line (play stands regardless!). 10* UNLV

10* Over Tulsa/South Florida (7:30 ET): It's been a rather steep decline for Tulsa this season, but that was largely to be expected. Last year, the Golden Hurricane went 10-3 SU including a 55-10 bowl win over Central Michigan. But that team also boasted a 3,348 yard passer, a 1629 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers. All of those players departed and as a result, they come into this game already w/ no shot at bowl eligibility as they're just 2-8 straight up (0-4 in games decided by six points or less). Yet, they still actually average a healthy 31.0 PPG. The problem has actually resided on the defensive side of the ball where they're giving up 38.0 PPG. That's going to be an issue facing South Florida, but w/ a big pointsread, the better move is to the Over.

USF came into 2017 w/ a new head coach (Charlie Strong) and visions of grabbing that coveted "Group of 5" spot in a "New Year's Six" Bowl. They still have a shot at doing so, but a home loss to Houston several weeks back really put a damper on those aspirations. Still, the Bulls do control their own destiny as they'll play at undefeated UCF next Friday. Win their final two regular season games + the AAC Title Game and it will likely be USF that is in a major bowl game. Willie Taggart certainly did not leave an empty cupboard for Strong as the offense is averaging 39.1 PPG (actually slightly down from LY) while the defense gives up just 19.9 PPG, which is way down from last year.

These schools have met only one time (2014) and in that game, USF pulled off the greatest comeback in its history, rallying back from a 27-7 halftime deficit to win 38-30. I expect similar fireworks Thursday night in Tampa. Save for the one loss to Houston, this USF offense has been remarkably consistent w/ 31 or more points scored in every game. I don't anticipate Quentin Flowers and company to have much trouble moving the ball on this woeful Tulsa defense, which is giving up 46.6 points and nearly 600 yards per game on the road. For the year, USF is averaging just over 500 YPG and they topped 600 in the last game w/ QB Flowers setting a career best w/ 385 yards passing. It's all a question if Tulsa can put enough points on the board as well and I think they can. They have the 15th best rush offense in the country (248.7). Unfortunately, USF is 7th (277 YPG) in that same department. The USF offense should be able to move the ball at will here while Tulsa will move it enough times to get the game Over the total. 10* Over Tulsa/South Florida

10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): I think it would be fair to say that these teams represent the two biggest disappointments in the MAC this season. Miami actually finished tied atop the MAC East last year (w/ Ohio) and did so despite starting that season 0-6 SU (won final 6 reg season games!). Eastern Michigan ended a nearly 30-year bowl drought by going 7-6 SU itself. But in 2017, things have not according to plan either Oxford or Ypsilanti. Eastern Michigan is already eliminated from bowl contention and that can be pinned on the fact they've been quite unsuccessful in "close games." Despite having a positive scoring differential in conference play, their record is only 1-5! Six of their losses this year have come by a touchdown or less. Miami, on the other hand, still has a shot at bowl eligibility (must win final 2 games) and that's a big reason I'm on them here. 

All the signs were there for an Eastern Michigan decline this season as LY's team won five games by a TD or less and pulled four outright upsets. They really "snuck up" on the oddsmakers as well by going 10-3 ATS. Remember that this program is just two years removed from going 1-11 SU! Chris Creighton (4th year here) has them pointed in the right direction and the Eagles probably will be improved NEXT season. But 2018 seems like a long ways away for a team that had much bigger aspirations this year. I wonder about their psyche as for the first time this season, they were beaten by double digits in a MAC game, this coming last week against Central Michigan. QB Brogan Roback threw FIVE interceptions in the 42-30 loss up in Mt. Pleasant. The loss also sealed the fact that the Eagles won't be returning to the postseason this year.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Miami got its starter back LW vs. Akron and you saw the difference that made in a 24-14 win and cover over Akron. Gus Ragland was expected to lead this team to better things in 2017 and while the MAC East is no longer attainable, a bowl bid still is. Ragland has one of the top receivers, not just in the MAC but the entire country, to throw to in James Gardner (886 yds, 10 TDs). Despite a -2 TO margin, the RedHawks had no problem winning going away LW (led 24-7 entering the 4Q) w/ a 420-278 edge in total yards. Defensively, the RedHawks are pretty good at stopping the pass (have not allowed a single 300 yd game YTD) and they also registered six sacks last week vs. Akron. Miami will be heavily favored next week to beat hideous Ball State in their finale, so a win here all but assures they go 6-6 SU and become bowl eligible. They're 5-1 ATS their last six games where the line is a field goal or less (either way) and I'll be laying the short number here. 10* Miami OH

8* Kent State (7:00 ET): I probably don't need to tell you that Kent is not a very good football team. Of course, injuries have definitely taken a toll on the Golden Flashes, which is why they come into tonight sporting only a 2-8 SU record. However, for this game, I do believe there is some value in taking them. Central Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth last week by pulling its second consecutive minor upset, this one over Eastern Michigan (42-30). So there's a natural letdown that follows for a Chippewas team that has won three straight and four of its last five overall. This being Kent State's home finale, I don't think they'll be lacking in motivation and the number is generous, about four points too many according to my own power rankings. Take the points. 

Kent's biggest issue all season has been at the quarterback position where an injury to Nick Holley has really rendered the offense pretty impotent. Out of 130 FBS teams, the Golden Flashes rank 129th in both yards and scoring. QB George Bollas has a very ugly 0-5 TD-INT ratio the L2 games, though Kent did scored 20 points in its last game, it's most against any FBS opponent all season. It should be noted that game (at Western Michigan) would have been a lot closer than the 48-20 final were it not for THREE defensive scores against the Golden Flashes. It is imperative here that Bollas take care of the football as CMU has 16 interceptions on the year, five of them coming last week! However, as I've stated so many times in the past, turnovers are such a volatile statistic. One week or season, they can totally be in your favor, while the next you're on the wrong end. I'll call for things to go MUCH better in that department this week for Kent.

Central Michigan may have a "ball-hawking" type defense, but it also gives up plenty of points. They've allowed 23 points in all but one game this season (to Ball State). To go back to my earlier point, the nine TO's they've forced the L2 games have been huge for them. I realize that the Chips still have an outside shot at winning the MAC West, but prevailing here by any kind of margin is not likely to the focus. They were virtually dead even in total yardage last week vs. Eastern Michigan, a game which was decided by those aforementioned five interceptions. CMU is only +5.3 points and +5.6 yards per game in conference play, so this is by no means a dominant team. Kent did beat them LY (as 14-pt road dogs!), 27-24, on a last second field goal. The revenge factor here will be overrated as I look for the Golden Flashes to "show some pride" in the final home game for their seniors. 8* Kent State

8* Oklahoma (8:00 ET): This has now become THE game in the Big 12 this year as the winner is likely assured of being no worse than #5 in the next CFP rankings, plus will have the conference lead all to themselves. Ironically, both Oklahoma and TCU have lost to Iowa State this year. Oklahoma lost to the Cyclones as 30-pt (!) home favorites, 38-31, back on October 7th. TCU lost to them at home, 14-7, just two weeks ago. That's the ONLY loss for both teams all season. Both have beaten Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas. OU gets the higher ranking likely due to their win at Ohio State early in the year and I don't really think there's many people right now (outside of Ft. Worth) claiming the Horned Frogs are the better team here. Throw in the fact the game takes place in Norman and I'll lay what is actually a pretty short number Saturday night.

While they did lose to Iowa State, Oklahoma is still 57-8 SU its last 65 games at Memorial Stadium. So anytime you get the opportunity to lay a TD or less w/ them here, it's probably a good idea to do so. Sure enough, there has been only one time in the previous three seasons that they've been faves of 7 pts or less here in Norman and they won easily, 44-24 over West Virginia, back in 2015. While it's true these teams have a history of playing close games (L5 all decided by 7 pts or less), my thinking is that works AGAINST TCU here. Typically, the favorite is the one undervalued in Top 25 matchups and that's what we have here. 

OU averages 45 points and 608 yards per game. They will - easily - be the top opponent TCU has taken on this season. Meanwhile, the Sooners have already gone to Ohio State and won. Last week at Oklahoma State, Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the offense put on an unreal display w/ 62 points and 785 yards. I just don't know how you stop this offense. TCU does rank 1st nationally against the run, but it's the passing game where OU truly excels. With just 31 pts - total - scored in its last two games, I'm just not sure how the Horned Frogs can keep up. OU has a huge edge at QB in this matchup w/ Mayfield over Kenny Hill and that's going to be a big part of the difference here. Yes, TCU was able to win at Oklahoma State earlier in the year, but as we saw last week, it's the Sooners that are the stronger Bedlam rival and I just can't pick against them at home. 8* Oklahoma

8* USC (4:00 ET): Most would be quick to call Southern Cal's season a disappointment as the Men of Troy came in to 2017 w/ playoff aspirations. But even with the two losses, this still a team to be feared. Navigating a schedule that had ZERO bye weeks was practically insurmountable, so I'm not surprised at all to see the multiple blemishes on the resume. Plus, let's look at the two losses, shall we? One was on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game where the Trojans lost multiple OL to injury. The other was at Notre Dame, who is the third best team in the country according to the committee. The last two weeks have given us a glimpse into USC's vast potential. They've routed both Arizona State and Arizona to the tune of 97-52. I don't think they'll have much problem at all w/ Colorado, even in Boulder. 

Now Colorado has been a true disappointment this year. Last year at this time, the Buffs were on their way to being the surprise winner of the Pac 12 South and playing in the Conference Championship Game. No one expected a repeat of that, but a 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS record is definitely not what the faithful envisioned either. They actually enter this game in last place in the North Division (USC in first). While it was a 3-0 start, that included wins over Texas State and Northern Colorado. Pac 12 play has not gone well as they're just 2-5 SU and the wins were over Oregon State (by only three) and Cal, the two worst teams in the league. Last week, they were beaten 41-30 by Arizona State after giving up 24 pts in the fourth quarter and nearly 600 total yards for the game. USC had just routed that same ASU team two weeks ago and it's pretty frightening to think what Sam Darnold and the Trojan offense might do to this Buffaloes defense.

USC is also only 3-7 ATS and was actually 1-7 before covering each of the last two weeks. Their market favoribility took a major hit after the Notre Dame game, but that's fine by me as I fully expect them to win out and play Washington in the Pac 12 Title Game. Not only has it been 97 points from Darnold and company the L2 games, it's been B2B 600+ yard efforts as well. Given Colorado just allowed Arizona State to run for 381 yards last week, I'd say this is a bad matchup facing an offense that has 672 yds over land its last two games, 410 alone from Ronald Jones. The Colorado defense has given up an average of 35 PPG the L5 weeks and this will be the best offense they've faced during that time. CU has NEVER beaten USC in 11 all-time tries, not even LY when they won the Division. In fact, the fact they "only" lost 21-17 was quite misleading as the Trojans outgained them 548-371 and kneeled inside the CU five-yard line to run the clock out. I look for USC to make it three blowouts in a row. 8* USC

8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State (3:30 ET): The Big XII currently has no teams in the top four in the playoff rankings, but the winner of Saturday night's game between TCU and Oklahoma (who are tied for first place in the conference) will almost certainly be ranked no lower than fifth come next Tuesday. Behind those two are a number of teams jockeying for position, including the two here, who have become almost afterthoughts. West Virginia is 6-3 w/ two of its losses coming by a touchdown. They average 40.2 PPG, but it was the defense that ruled the day in LW's 20-16 win over Iowa State in Morgantown. This week, they face Kansas State in the "Little Apple" (Manhattan), a team that is not known for scoring, but ironically is off a 42-35 win over Texas Tech last week. Oddsmakers have pretty high expectations for the amt of scoring in this game, but the fact is none of the last four meetings have been very high scoring. I'm on the Under.

WVU was actually shut out in the 2H last week, something we don't see very often. But it didn't matter as the defense held Iowa State to just 350 total yds, perhaps the Mountaineers' signature defensive effort this year. After facing a string of top-flight offenses (TCU, Tex Tech, OK State, Iowa State), perhaps Kansas State will be a reprieve. Granted, the Wildcats have scored 30 or more in all but two games this year. But the two they didn't, they were held to just single digits. Last week, KSU needed a TD + 2 pt conversion in the final minute to force OT against Texas Tech (trailed 35-27). They also needed a defensive TD (INT return). Making the rally all the more improbable is the fact it was led by a third string QB, Skylar Thompson, who will now be Bill Snyder's starter moving forward. 

Kansas State only ranks 99th nationally in passing yards per game, so with a third-stringer at the helm, I don't expect much from them through the air in this game. That could mean trouble, because LW's defensive performance from WVU included them allowing just 101 yds over land. I do expect Will Grier and the Mountaineers' offense to move the ball here, but won't be surprised if they're held to field goals by a KSU defense that ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in red zone efficiency. As mentioned before, recent meetings between these two have been lower scoring than expected. Last year, it was 17-16 WVU in Morgantown and the most points scored in any of the L4 meetings was 47. 8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State

10* Ohio State (12:00 ET): Judging by the ticket count (as of Thursday afternoon), it certainly appears as if no one wants any part of the 13th ranked Buckeyes this week, even though they're at home and HC Urban Meyer is typically outstanding when coming off a loss. The public disdain does make sense; after all, OSU was routed in Iowa last Saturday - 55-24 - yet is still laying a big number here. But at the risk of offending any readers/clients from East Lansing or those who simply may "bleed" Sparty green, Michigan State is a highly overrated outfit and very fortunate to have the record it does. Their five Big 10 victories have come by a TOTAL of 25 points and none were by more than eight! Not only is this line justified; it's actually not high enough!

Expectations were way down in East Lansing coming into the season. The Spartans were coming off a 3-9 SU year and a lot of talent elected to bolt in the Spring. Nothing that happened in the non-conference portion of the schedule seemed to indicate this team was ready for big things. There were two "ho-hum" wins over MAC schools (Bowling Green, Western Michigan), followed by a 38-18 thumping at the hands of Notre Dame. But here in Big 10 play, all they've done is win close games, save for one. Notable wins include one over Michigan where Sparty was +5 in turnover margin, thereby enabling them to win a bad weather game where they barely gained 250 total yards. The win at Minnesota, admittedly, shouldn't have been as close as it ended up considering MSU led big before getting backdoored. But the following week saw a highly misleading final in their favor, 17-9 over Indiana, where they scored two late fourth quarter TD's to not just steal the win, but the cover as well. Mark Dantonio got a dose of his "own medicine" the following week in a 3 OT loss to N'western (only Big 10 loss). Then came last week where they upset Penn State in East Lansing, yet another game that was heavily impacted by mother nature (three-hour lightning delay). Man, this team sure seems to win a lot of bad weather games. 

Two years ago, here in Columbus, the Spartans won another bad weather game. This one as 14-pt dogs, 17-14. This Saturday is expected to be chilly (high of 40 degrees), but no rain is expected. I know that NO ONE wants to hear this right now, but in my mind, Ohio State would still be a favorite over any team in the country, save for Alabama. The Buckeyes average 43 PPG. Michigan State averages only 24 PPG. I'm calling for a three TD victory for the home team here as they're stock couldn't be any lower. I just do NOT believe in Michigan State at all as I don't even believe they are a Top 25 team in the country! 10* Ohio State

8* BYU (10:30 ET): It has, quite obviously, been a terrible season in Provo, both on the field and at the betting window. Brigham Young failed to cover in any of its first seven games this season and the lone SU win during that stretch came against an FCS school, Portland State, in the opener. Once they dropped a game, 33-17 at hideous East Carolina, the Cougars' season was, in essence, done. But I've liked the way they've still competed for HC Kalani Sitake the L2 weeks, covering both games, despite nothing to play for. They even won a game, two weeks ago, 41-20 over San Jose State. Then, last week saw them stay inside the number at a much improved Fresno State team, losing "only" 20-13 as 11.5-pt dogs. This week, they're in Vegas on a Friday night against a UNLV team that hasn't been very trustworthy when laying points. I'll grab the number here w/ the short road dog. 

UNLV came into this season thinking bowl game, which would be a first under HC Tony Sanchez, a local favorite due to his ties to the high school scene. This is Sanchez's third season here and in the previous two, the Rebels have won three and four games. Going back to 2010, only UNLV team ('13) has won more than four games in a season. Four is where they're at now, meaning they'll need to win two of the final three to become bowl eligible. Rebels' fans are probably thinking this can be one of those two, but as alluded to earlier, this team is untrustworthy when favored. They're only 5-8 ATS in the role under Sanchez, including 1-2-1 ATS this year (2-2 SU). They did push LW vs. Hawaii, but also lost outright to Utah State (52-28!) the last time they were a short fave here in Sam Boyd Stadium. 

BYU was tied w/ Fresno State last week (on the road) entering the fourth quarter and still finished w/ the edge in total yardage and first downs. The week previous, they rolled up nearly 600 yds total offense and forced five turnovers in a 41-20 win and cover (1st of season) over San Jose State. Now, QB Tanner Mangum is done for the year (ACL), but this is the SIXTH time in the last eight seasons that BYU has lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and they've persevered before. The unknown factor at QB here will make them more difficult to prepare for anyway. Speaking of QB's, UNLV's Johnny Stanton was playing linebacker just three weeks ago. He too is only in there because of injuries. The Rebels have not beaten BYU since '04 and remember this is a team that lost outright to FCS Howard (as 45-pt chalk) in the season opener. 8* BYU

10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): To say that it's been a long season in Muncie would be putting it quite mildly. Ball State, by most objective measures, is one of the five worst teams in America. They are 2-7 SU and getting outscored by over 21 PPG. One of the wins was against FCS Tennessee Tech back on Sept 16th. Conference play has been horrific. They've been outscored on average 51.2 to 9.2! Four times, they've given up at least 55 points including each of the L3 games. So, what I'm saying, is Northern Illinois should be feeling pretty good about its chances in Thursday night #MACtion. The Huskies had a four-game win streak snapped their last time out (by Toledo), so they were going to be in an ornery mood to begin with. Expect plenty of points from them here. 

Playing against Ball State will require a hefty price tag the rest of the way, so IMO, the total is the way to go here. Considering how many points per game BSU is allowing on average, the Over seems like an easy call and we may not even need much help from the Cardinals. The last three weeks have not only seen them allow 515 YPG, but 56.7 PPG. That scoring average exceeds the O/U line here, so them scoring may not even be a necessity here. What's truly frightening about the defensive numbers here, at least in the last two games, is that the opponents largely took the "foot off the gas" in the fourth quarter. Toledo had 51 pts through three quarters against them while Eastern Michigan had 49.

Northern Illinois' defense was torched in the last game as well, giving up 527 total yds. They only allowed 27 points, for which they should feel fortunate. Toledo had an 89-yard drive which ended w/ a fumble, plus two other long drives that ended w/ field goals. Now, normally the Huskies are pretty stout. Certainly, on paper, this may be the weakest offense they face all year. Three times Ball State hasn't even scored 10 pts in MAC play and their high is 17 pts. But, as already discussed, NIU can carry "most of the load" here. The last five meetings between these MAC West rivals have all been relatively high scoring w/ a minimum of 56 total pts scored. That'll do the trick here as NIU should threaten their season-high in points scored here (48 vs. Bowling Green) and if they do, then this will be an easy Over. 10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): These are the two best teams in the MAC and a rematch is likely in the Conference Championship Game next month in Detroit. Toledo is the ONLY team in the conference w/o a loss (5-0) while Ohio (entering Tuesday) is tied w/ Akron for the lead in the East Division at 4-1 SU. Something will have to give here as Toledo is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the road favorite role while Ohio has covered 10 of its last 13 in the underdog role. Furthermore, the Bobcats are 7-2 at the betting window this year. However, this will be - BY FAR - the toughest test to date for Frank Solich's team as Toledo's only loss all year was to still unbeaten Miami. And that's Miami FL, not Miami OH. The line has come down pretty significantly since the open and, to me, that has created a situation where there's value on the Rockets. Lay the short number. 

Toledo also has revenge here for a 31-26 loss last year (as 16-point favorites!) in the Glass Bowl. That game saw both teams roll up 500+ yards of offense, but the Rockets never led. It was their first loss to the Bobcats since '88, but keep in mind these teams do not play every season. Something history buffs may find interesting is these two teams have combined for NINE MAC Title Game appearances, but have won it only twice (both times by Toledo) and not since '04. If they were to meet in Detroit next month, it would be the first time we got Ohio vs. Toledo there. The Rockets haven't even been to the MAC Title Game since '04, which is astounding when you think about it as they have 16 1st or 2nd place finishes in the West since the conference split in '96. Ohio won the East last year. 

This year should be "Toledo's year." Western Michigan is nowhere close to as good as it was last year and Northern Illinois is still rebuilding. Plus, Toledo already beat N Illinois and won't play WMU until the reg season finale when they already might have the division wrapped up. This team has covered its last four games and is outscoring MAC opponents by 20.6 PPG while outgaining them by almost 200 YPG! Ohio has scored 45 pts three consecutive weeks, but did so against lesser competition. They did lose outright - here at home - to Central Michigan as 10-pt chalk earlier in the year. Last week, despite being Miami 45-28 (and I had the Bobcats), total yardage was basically even. All but one of Toledo's conference wins have come by double digits and while this one may not follow the pattern, it doesn't have to. 8* Toledo

8* Miami OH (7:30 ET): There certainly seems to be some sharp money on the RedHawks here as they've gone from laying four points at the open to almost a touchdown at all shops (as of press time). It's certainly been a disappointing season in Oxford as there was a ton of optimism following last year's finish to the regular season where the team ended on a six-game win streak. That disappointment is reflected in a 2-7 ATS record this season, which includes a 1-5 mark when favored. Yet that hasn't stopped oddsmakers (or bettors for that matter!) here as Miami's opponent this week is a major surprise being on top of the MAC East (tied w/ Ohio). I'm going to lean on what happened to Akron in Toledo two weeks ago and lay the points Tuesday.

Though 4-1 in MAC play, Akron has outscored its conference opponents by only 14 total pts. They have two one-point victories, one of those coming in their last game, which was 21-20 over Buffalo at home. The Zips were actually outgained pretty handily in that win, 459-372, and finished w/ nine fewer first downs. They won on a late TD pass (4:46 remaining), which capped a 91-yard drive. It was a similar story in a one-point win at Western Michigan where the Zips were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin yet came away ahead 14-13 in a game that had to be pushed back a day due to inclement weather. I'm just not sure how much longer "lady luck" can continue to ride on this team's shoulder. Again, I point to the fact they were blown out by Toledo, two weeks ago on the road, 48-21 w/ the defense allowing over 600 total yds. Despite the 4-1 conference record, Akron is actually being outgained by 120 YPG by its MAC opponents! They average just 17.2 PPG on the road. 

Miami lost last Tuesday to rival Ohio, 45-28, though it was basically even in total yardage (Miami actually finished ahead, 448-443). The loss dropped the RedHawks to 2-3 SU in league play, but they are actually outgaining MAC foes by about 50 YPG, essentially making them the opposite of Akron this year. While all three wins this year have been by double digits, four of Miami's six losses have come by eight points or fewer. This game strikes me as time for a "reversal of respective fortunes" and Miami really needs this game if they are to become bowl eligible. They should also be extra motivated by a four-year losing streak to the Zips (lost 35-13 LY), their longest losing skid in the history of the rivalry! I'm not too concerned by the fact Miami may again have to go w/ backup QB Billy Bahl as they have one of the top WR in the country in James Gardner (20.1 yards per reception) and are going against the conference's worst passing defense. The RedHawks also rank 15th nationally in time of possession, so expect them to play "keep away" tonight en route to a win and cover. 8* Miami OH

8* Over LSU/Alabama (8:00 ET): Just a few short weeks ago, it appeared as if LSU's streak of 16 straight years being ranked for the Alabama game was in jeopardy. But an upset of Auburn (at home) followed by a win at Ole Miss have them at #19. I'm not so sure they deserve to be ranked that high, but whatever. As for Alabama, the thought of them being unranked is simply unfathomable. The Tide come in ranked for the LSU game for a 12th straight time and they've won the L6, including 10-0 in Baton Rouge last season. The oddsmakers are NOT expecting a very competitive game here in Tuscaloosa this year, installing the Tide as three-touchdown favorites. I want no part of that spread, but do like the total and that's what I'll be playing Saturday night. 

The big story w/ 'Bama is never that they're ranked, but where they are ranked. The AP and Coaches both had them #1 all year, but the CFP committee slotted them at #2 in their initial rankings, which were released Tuesday. The difference between being #1 or #2 is pretty irrelevant for Nick Saban's team as they still control their own destiny due to a potential meeting w/ #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. To me, Alabama is the best team in the country, even though their schedule has not been particularly challenging. But they're outscoring opponents by an impressive 33.2 PPG margin. Their defense is tied for #1 in yards allowed per game (236), #1 in scoring (9.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. But don't sleep on an offense that is better now than it was w/ Lane Kiffin's playcalling. They average 43.0 PPG and have scored at least 40 pts in all but two games this season. 

So for this game to go Over, LSU is going to need to do SOMETHING offensively. They have not scored more than 17 pts in any of the L5 meetings w/ Bama and as mentioned earlier, were shutout LY. But, I'll say this. The Alabama defense hasn't exactly faced a slew of great offenses. LSU ranks 16th nationally in offensive efficiency (Alabama is 4th!) and the previous four SEC opponents that the Tide have taken on, rank 83rd (Texas A&M), 86th (Tennessee), 45th (Arkansas) and 42nd (Vandy) in that department. In fact, the best offense the Tide have faced thus far (in terms of efficiency) would be Colorado State at #35! LSU scored 40 their last time out as well, beating Ole Miss by double digits. Note though that game saw the Rebels lose starting QB Shea Patterson for the year. The Tigers have allowed at least 23 points in five of the last six games and the one time they didn't was against inept Florida. So they're going to give up plenty of points here. I already mentioned that Alabama ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. The previous highest ranking for an LSU opponent was Mississippi State at 20th and they put up 37 on Ed Orgeron's defense. 8* Over LSU/Alabama

10* Stanford (3:30 ET): Despite already having two losses on its resume, Stanford still has plenty to play for, both individually and collectively. From an individual perspective, RB Bryce Love figures to be getting an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation next month. Whether or not he wins it depends on him getting healthy and how well he plays moving forward. As far as the team is concerned, they find themselves in the role of spoiler w/ home games left against both Washington (next Friday) and Notre Dame (regular season finale). Both of those teams will be looking to make the CFP. Of course, the Pac 12 Championship is still on the table for the Cardinal, who got a major scare last week in Corvallis, only beating Oregon State by a score of 15-14 (were w/o Love). There's been some question as to whether Love is going to play here, but I'm banking that he will and thus Stanford is an excellent play plus the points.

Washington State is another team that probably feels it can still win the Pac 12 Championship. They too have Washington left on the schedule, though this year's Apple Cup will be waged in Seattle. (Wazzu will be off a bye). But before we can even begin to discuss the regular season finale, we need to talk about the way the Cougars have been trending. It's been two losses in the last three games for Wazzu, one being an ugly one (37-3 at Cal), then LW's debacle at Arizona (58-37). I concede to you that both of those losses ocurred on the road. But I still never took this team seriously as a legit threat to win the conference and in fact, they hardly ever cracked my Top 25, even when they were still unbeaten. Last week saw QB Luke Falk pulled, yet Mike Leake still called 84 pass plays! 

This is a big revenge game for Stanford, which lost 42-16 (at home!) LY to Wazzu. I'm sure the coaching staff and players have not forgotten. Love's health is certainly a big deal, and something I'll be monitoring throughout the week. But the bottom line here is that you have to love a player averaging more than 10 yards per carry going up against a defense that just surrendered over 300 yards rushing last week. Weather should also be a factor Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Though Stanford is a California team, they certainly are not the kind of wide-open attack that comes to mind when we think Pac 12 offenses. If the reports are true and the weather is freezing and rainy, that's an edge for the Cardinal as Wazzu's passing attack will undoubtedly be negatively affected (and they can't run the ball). Stanford is actually averaging more points per game than Wazzu this year, which is shocking, and they're the better team getting points. 10* Stanford

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): Are the Fighting Irish ... (gasp!) underrated? It sure seems so. Well, not by the pollsters, who placed them #3 in the initial CFP rankings. But bettors have certainly been able to cash in on this team w/ great frequency as they roll into Saturday on a six-game ATS win streak. The last two weeks have seen them destroy both USC and NC State, teams that I consider to be among the top 25 in the country. Both those games took place here in South Bend w/ the Irish winning by a combined 84-28 margin. Up next is a Wake Forest team you may hear labeled as being "dangerous," but the bottom line is that the Demon Deacons are not as good as either of ND's last two opponents and coming off an upset (of Louisville), I think they'll be the ones primed for a letdown in this spot. Lay the points. 

Notre Dame has the "honor" of being called the "best 1-loss team in America." Since losing to #1 Georgia by a single point here at home, back in Week 2, no other team has come within 20 points of them. I absolutely love the way this offense runs the ball as we've now seen four consecutive games w/ at least 318 yards over land, thanks in large part to an experienced line. That's very bad news for a Wake Forest defense which can be had. Two weeks ago, they allowed 427 rushing yards to Georgia Tech and for the season they are giving up 184 rush yards per game. Last week against Louisville, the Wake offense gave up well over 500 total yards and still won, something they will assuredly NOT be able to do here. 

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has just as big an advantage. It starts w/ their DC, Mike Elko, having previously served as the Wake Forest DC the previous three seasons. So Elko knows the Demon Deacons' offense. Even better is that he won't have to worry about defending their top WR, Greg Dortch, who is now out for the year due to an abdominal injury. Dortch had 10 catches for 167 yds last week vs. L'ville w/ four touchdowns, so he'll clearly be missed. So too will starting RB Cade Carney. I also forgot to mention Wake will be w/o a starting safety, Jessie Bates, for this game. I think people are just looking at the spot for Notre Dame, who is off B2B beatdowns of Top 25 opponents w/ Miami on deck, and thinking letdown. But it's Wake Forest that's off an upset here and they're down several key players, including their best one on offense. I just can't see them keeping pace with the ND offense, on the road. 8* Notre Dame

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): I think it's fair to ask what Indiana has left in the tank. The last three weeks have to have taken a toll as we've seen them come up brutally short in losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Then, last week they lost outright at Maryland, giving up 42 points in the process. They did outgain the Terps, 483-345, and have nearly twice as many first downs. They even jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. But none of that mattered as QB Peyton Ramsey got hurt and Maryland got a big play early in the 2Q where they returned a blocked punt for a TD. Normally, this is situation where I'd at least consider the home dog that seems "due," but I have major concerns over the Hoosiers' state of mind right now as even becoming bowl eligible will be a chore.

Wisconsin comes to Bloomington probably feeling a bit disrespected. I hate when teams play that card. But in the case of the Badgers, they are one of three Power 5 teams to be unbeaten, yet they are also ranked only 9th in the initial CFP rankings. (Interestingly, Miami is #10, but Alabama is #2). Winning out would certainly have to land the Badgers in the top four though, right? Yes, we can poke fun at their schedule thus far. But if they beat both Michigan and Ohio State, they'll be in. As for this game, they come in off a lackluster 24-10 win at Illinois where the edge in total yards was very slight. That said, they were up 24-3 for most of the fourth quarter before conceding a touchdown in the final minute. It was the third straight game that the Badgers' defense allowed 13 pts or less.

The IU QB situation being what it is, I see them struggling to score points Saturday afternoon whether it's Ramsey or Richard Laglow starting. Wisconsin is allowing only 12.9 points per game for the season and Northwestern is the only team to top 17 against them. The Badgers and Hoosiers haven't played since 2013, which is probably just fine from the IU perspective as they've dropped nine in a row to the team from Madison and done so by an average of 37 PPG! I realize that Badgers' bellcow Jonathan Taylor is currently listed as questionable for this game, but with or without him, I see the offense being able to move the ball against a suspect Indiana defense which has three times permitted 42 points or more. 8* Wisconsin

analysis soon

8* Under Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:00 ET): Conference USA has turned somewhat "upside-down" this year. Granted, this isn't all that shocking considering a number of teams (these two among them) profiled as dramatically improving here in '17. But the top three from last year - Western Kentucky, La Tech and Old Dominion - are all struggling (combined 5-8 in conf play). Middle Tennessee is battling key injuries. So that has opened the door for Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic to wrest control of the C-USA East Division at 4-0 SU w/ every win coming by two touchdowns or more. Regular clients of mine will recall me labeling this team as one of the most likely to improve from last year as Kiffin inherited the most experienced roster in the country.

Marshall had not lost a C-USA game until last week. In fact, their only loss had been to a ranked NC State team, on the road, and they covered the spread there. Like FAU, the Thundering Herd were very likely to improve coming off a 3-9 season as they'd won 10+ games each of the three previous seasons. But then last week happened and they were beaten 41-30 as 15-pt favorites by FIU in Huntington. It was a -3 turnover margin that doomed them there, thus negating a 505-401 edge in total yards. That said, they did trail 28-7 at half and 35-14 entering the 4th quarter before rallying late to make a game of it. There was a defensive score from FIU in the game plus Marshall converted a pair of two-point conversions. So scoring was a bit inflated. I bring that up because now we have the highest O/U line - by far - for any Marshall game this year. The Herd have scored 30+ three straight weeks, but still average just 28.4 PPG for the season. 

I absolutely expect a motivated Marshall team here. Their defense ranks near the top of the country in scoring, allowing just 17.6 points per game. (That's top 15). They'll need that defense to show up here against a FAU team that has scored 38 or more in every C-USA game so far. Special teams actually keyed the 42-28 win over WKU last week, a game in which the Owls actually trailed 28-20 going into the 4Q.  The week prior, they were my *10* Game of the Week and scored on each of their first 11 drives (!) in a 69-31 beatdown w/ a conference record 804 yards! So this offense has been pretty impressive, needless to say. But this will be the best defense they will have faced since Wisconsin. Marshall allowed just 16 pts total in its first three C-USA games and has held four different opponents to 10 pts or less. If FAU isn't forcing TO's here, then they will struggle to score. 8* Under Marshall/Florida Atlantic

10* Temple (8:00 ET): The AAC is having another strong year w/ UCF threatening to be this year's "Group of Five" team in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. But both Navy and Temple, particularly the latter, are teams that have taken respective steps back in spite of the conference's overall ascension. These two met in LY's AAC Championship Game w/ the Owls winning big, 34-10 as 2-pt dogs in Annapolis. With the HC of that team, Matt Rhule, having departed for Baylor though, there was no way the Owls were going to repeat last year's 10-4 SU (and 12-2 ATS!) records. Sure enough, they come into this week at 3-5 SU and ATS. As for Navy, they started 5-0 SU, but have since dropped B2B games. I like the way Temple matches up here (familiar w/ triple option!) and will take them as a home dog. 

Now it's essentially a entirely different coaching staff, not to mention front seven, for Temple here compared to LY's Conference Championship Game. But still, they catch a break in having additional time to prepare for this matchup, not that they needed it though as they faced Army in their last game! The Owls did allow 248 rush yards in that 31-28 loss, but that was on 50 carries. So they defended the triple option relatively well. I should also mention how three of Temple's four losses this year have been by seven points or less. Like Navy, they're far better suited as underdogs. They covered as seven-point dogs against Army, a game which went to overtime and the Owls probably should have won in regulation. Not only did they outgain the Black Knights 506-389, but they had a seven-point lead w/ 90 seconds left in regulation, only to allow the typically anemic Army passing attack to carve them up! It was a similar story two weeks ago vs. UConn where Temple held almost a 2:1 edge in total yards (28-15 in first downs), but lost by four. 

Navy's two losses this year came against the teams most likely to represent the AAC in this year's Conference Champ Game, Memphis and UCF. The loss to UCF saw QB Zach Abbey leave in the third quarter due to a concussion and the Midshipmen's 17-game home regular season win streak come to an end. Of course, they were also handled LY here in Annapolis by this Owls' defense, getting held to a season-low in total yardage. Abbey's health is certainly something to monitor here, though the coaching staff has said he will play. Still, you have to wonder about performance after being knocked out. Both of these teams have been outstanding ATS in recent years, but I gravitate towards the fact Temple is 12-3 ATS the L15 times it has gotten points. 10* Temple

10* Western Michigan (7:05 ET): First off, the reason for the line dropping here is that WMU QB Jon Wassink is out w/ a broken collarbone. He sustained the injury in the Broncos' 20-17 OT win at rival Eastern Michigan 11 days ago and is done for the regular season. As deflating as that can be for a team, I still favor WMU by a far more significant margin than the oddsmakers are, against this latest "directional" opponent. A reason for Central Michigan getting some additional respect here in this spot is that they are coming off a 56-9 win. But I wouldn't read too much into that as the opponet was Ball State, who is not just one of the worst MAC teams, but also among the very worst teams in the entire country. I plan on taking advantage of this deflated line. You should too! 

It certainly didn't take long this season for Western Michigan to exceed their number of losses from LY, but that was to be expected after a "dream" 13-1 campaign landed former HC PJ Fleck the job at Minnesota. There was simply no way this year's team was going to match what the 2016 group did. But after opening w/ losses against USC and Michigan State (no shame there), the Broncos have played well, winning five of their last six. Their one loss came against Akron in a rescheduled affair that had to be played a day later (on a Sunday) due to flooding. I'd say that game certainly qualifies as "extraordinary circumstances." Yes, WMU has won two overtime games so far, one of them a record-setting 7 OT affair w/ Buffalo (71-68). But they're still outscoring MAC foes by two touchdowns per game while outgaining them by 78 YPG. 

Now, the Wassink injury does change things a bit. 1st year HC Tim Lester will be turning the reigns over to a freshman, Reece Goddard, who has thrown all of three passes in his college career. But having the additional time to prepare Goddard for his 1st start is huge, at least in my estimation. Central Michigan's defense is by no means great as they'd given up at least 27 points in six of their first seven contests. I expect Western Michigan to still move the ball here, thanks to RB Jarvoin Franklin, who has become his school's all-time leading rusher following three consecutive 100+ yard games. Also, it's worth noting that Goddard did led the GW drive to beat Eastern Michigan. Even though that was on a short field, he'd previously led an 11-play, 61-yard drive near the end of regulation that resulted in a missed FG. Central Michigan has lost three straight times to WMU and is only 3-7 ATS when off a MAC win. 10* Western Michigan

8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Miami-Ohio is actually one of the MAC's top rivalries. Known as "The Battle of the Bricks," Ohio has won 10 of the previous 11 matchups and LY's 17-7 victory in Oxford was the tiebreaker that allowed Frank Solich's Bobcats advancing to the Conference Championship Game. (Both teams went 6-2 SU in conference play). Coming into this year's meeting, Ohio finds itself w/ the top overall record among MAC East teams (6-2), but they're one-half game back of Akron for the division lead. Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country as they're only 3-5 SU after ending LY on a six-game win streak (excluding bowl). The RedHawks have been favored in almost all of their games (w/ Notre Dame being the only exception), but here they look to be "up against it" especially if QB Gus Ragland is again unable to play. Lay the points. 

Ohio lost an early season TV game, at Purdue, 44-21. They were actually just a short dog in that game, despite being the road team against a Big 10 opponent. Three consecutive victories followed, but then the Bobcats were upset at Central Michigan, losing 26-20 as 10-pt chalk. But now, they can again make it three straight wins following a loss as the L2 games have brought B2B 48-point efforts, including an annihilation of Kent State two Saturdays ago, 48-3. The OU defense allowed only 166 total yards in that game. The Bobcats have covered the spread in all six wins this season and gone 5-1 SU/ATS as favorites. Over the L3 seasons, they've won 17 of the 22 games in which they've been favored.

The last two years have seen the Miami offense manage a total of only 10 points against this Ohio defense. If they again have to go w/out Ragland, I don't like the underdogs chances here. But even w/ their starting QB, there's no guarantee of improved play. The team is only 2-4 SU/ATS w/ Ragland as the starter this year and that includes an awful home loss to Bowling Green, who hasn't beaten anybody else this year. I get that it's desperation time for the RedHawks, who must win three of their final four games just to be bowl eligible. But they're up against the best team in their division here, possibly w/o their starting QB, and Ohio is outscoring opponents by more than four touchdowns per game here in Athens. I'm not buying any kind of defensive resurgence for Miami here, even though they've allowed just 31 pts total the L2 games. They were fortunate to be +2 in turnover differential in the 24-14 win over Buffalo 10 days ago. It's not as if the RedHawks' schedule has been all that challenging to this point, so the fact that they're 3-6 SU is pretty ominous, especially since Ohio is the best team they will have faced since the Notre Dame game. 8* Ohio

8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii (11:15 ET): How the mighty have fallen in the Mountain West. Two weeks ago, San Diego State was unbeaten w/ a win over Stanford to its credit. That win over the Cardinal can't ever be erased from their resume, but the "0" that once occupied the loss column certainly has, as the Aztecs come in as losers of two straight. First they lost to Boise State, 31-14, in large part to giving up two non-offensive TDs early in the game. Then, clearly still feeling the effects of the hangover, they got boatraced last week by Fresno State, 27-3. I'm not about to lay points on the road w/ this bunch, at least right now, but what I do feel comfortable in projecting is a low-scoring game out on the Island this week, late night vs. Hawaii. Take the Under.

Hawaii is coming off a bye. They sure needed it, or at least their backers did, following five consecutive ATS defeats. Four of those were also straight up losses, but they did win the last game, 37-26 over downtrodden San Jose State. All three of the Warriors wins this year have come against either a FCS foe (Western Carolina) or a bottom 20 team in FBS. The other four games, they were held to 23 pts or fewer. I find it unlikely that they'll score even that many here against a San Diego State defense that has been very good for most of this season. The Aztecs are allowing only 21.7 PPG for the year and that number would be even lower if not for the multiple non-offensive TD's scored by Boise State two weeks ago. I'm not sure how to explain what happened LW vs. Fresno State, other than to say the offense surely didn't do its part.

With a total of just 17 pts scored the last two weeks, both of those games at home, SDSU is not exactly a prime candidate to lay points with right now, especially on the road. Hawaii does struggle to stop the run, but SDSU's offensive line is not at 100% right now, so they may not be able to take full advantage. The Under has hit in each of San Diego State's last three games, all on totals lower than this one. Last year, Hawaii did not score at all on the Aztecs' defense in an ugly 55-0 loss. It was their fifth straight year getting held to 21 points or fewer by them. 8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii

8* Washington (3:30 ET): This is most definitely a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for UCLA as #12 Washington is not only coming off its bye, but also an embarrassing loss (to Arizona State) the week prior. Coming into the season, I pegged the Bruins as one of the most likely improved teams in the entire country, but it's become pretty clear to me that HC Jim Mora already has "one foot out the door" in Westwood as does QB Josh Rosen, who would be the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft if he elected to come out. As for Washington, they can no longer endure any more "slip ups" after the disaster that happened at Arizona State two weeks ago. The Huskies lost that game, 13-7, not even coming close to scoring enough points to cover the 17.5-pt spread. This is an offense averaging 37.9 PPG for the year and they are set to go up against a UCLA defense which is allowing nearly 500 yards per game! Lay the points. 

UCLA hasn't been good on the road either and quite frankly that's putting things mildly. They're 0-3 SU and ATS away from the Rose Bowl and in those losses to Memphis, Stanford and Arizona, they've given up an average of 51 points per game. Getting back to the defensive woes, that unit has now surrendered 44 or more points four times. Remember that they are one miracle comeback (against Texas A&M) away from being 2-5 SU right now. The Bruins are off a win here, but it came against an Oregon team w/ a backup QB that just can't do much offensively right now. It's not like the Bruins' road woes are anything new either; dating back to last season, they've dropped seven consecutive road games, the last five all coming by double digits. Their last Pac 12 road win came in 2015. 

Washington only managing seven points against Arizona State was a real head-scratcher that I can't begin to figure out. All I can say is that Tempe is a place no Huskies team has won since 1999, so it must be something in the air there. For the reasons laid out above, I do not see them having much trouble moving the ball or putting it in the end zone here. On the defensive side of the ball, HC Chris Peterson has some injuries to deal with, but the Huskies are allowing an average of only 10.6 PPG this year and still only gave up 13 in the loss to Arizona State despite losing CB Jordan Miller in the game. Yes, Rosen will be the best QB they face all year, but I think this stop unit will be up to the task, especially with them likely "playing from ahead" for the duration of the contest. UCLA has won just one of its last nine games as an underdog and is 1-7 ATS when coming off a Pac 12 win the L3 seasons. 8* Washington