10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida International (7:00 ET): This total opened low and it’s dropped even lower. I now think it’s low enough that an Over play is definitely warranted. Over the course of any football game, there are so many “random” things that can take place, such as a “big play” or a turnover. For a game to stay Under a total this low, all of that would have to be avoided. I’m willing to bet that we get some of that randomness here. Getting two College Football teams to score 20 points in 2020 doesn’t seem like a big ask. Even if both don’t here, one will score enough to get the game Over. 

I am obviously well aware of the fact that every FAU game has stayed Under so far. Through four games, the Owls are averaging just 16.0 PPG while allowing only 11.5 PPG. They are off a 10-6 win over Western Kentucky last week, a game in which I took the points (w/ WKU) and won. No team in the country has seen a lower total PPG scoring average this season than the Owls. But 27.5 PPG is simply too low of a number to sustain. Here they are facing a FIU defense that’s giving up 28.7 PPG. Throw in the fact that the Panthers scored a combined 62 points their first games and this should easily produce FAU’s highest scoring game to date.

FIU hasn’t played in three weeks. Last time we saw them, the Panthers suffered an embarrassing 19-10 defeat at the hands of FCS Jacksonville State. But with all the extra time to prepare for FAU, my view is that FIU’s offense is going to have a bounce back game. Same for FAU, who was tied 0-0 w/ WKU last week. A change at QB was made last week for the Owls and Javion Posey led the game-winning drive. FIU’s defense is giving up 460 YPG. The Over has cashed the L4 times these “Shula Bowl” rivals have met in Miami. Consider that the closing O/U lines for these teams in Week 1 were 63.0 and 61.0.  This number is just too low not to try w/ the Over. 10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida Intl

10* Under Colorado State/Boise State (8:00 ET): Boise State was severely humbled last week, here on the blue turf no less, losing 51-17 to BYU. Quite frankly, it could have been a whole lot worse. I was actually debating playing the Broncos last Friday, but in retrospect am obviously very glad to have passed. I think it’s going to be a pretty difficult loss for them to shake as this week they host Mountain West rival Colorado State. All three Boise State games thus far have gone Over the total. Not this one though. 

Colorado State probably “deserves” to be 1-1 thus far, though I think each score was somewhat misleading. In a season-opening 38-17 loss at Fresno State, they didn’t play nearly as poorly as one would expect judging from that final score. Conversely, they were actually outgained 465-342 in a 34-24 win over Wyoming last weekend. That game saw the Rams obviously benefit from a +3 turnover margin as they opened the scoring with a “pick-six.” The CSU offense isn’t running the ball all that effectively thus far (3.2 YPC) and is averaging just 22 PPG when you take away that defensive score. 

On the positive side, Colorado State’s defense is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. They may also be in luck in that Boise State could be down to its third string QB. Starter Hank Bachmeier is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has missed the L2 games. His backup, Jack Sears, was knocked out of the BYU game with a concussion. Whether or not either can make it back on the field for Thursday, this is an easy call on the Under, which is 25-11 in Boise’s last 36 home games. 10* Under Colorado State/Boise State

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Both of these teams suffered close losses on the road last week. You had Eastern Michigan losing 27-23 at Kent State and Ball State losing 38-31 at Miami. Eastern Michigan trailed 20-9 at the half, but rallied to take a 23-20 lead in the 4Q. But it wasn’t to be, as on the next drive the Eagles’ defense gave up what turned out to be the game-winning TD. Ball State enjoyed a much greater advantage last week (led by 11 in the 3Q) but couldn’t close the deal and unlike Eastern Michigan, the Cardinals did NOT cover the spread in their season opener, a very tough break for anyone that had them.

While those results seem pretty similar, an inspection of the box scores reveals that BSU played a whole lot better than Eastern Michigan did a week ago. The Cardinals outgained Miami 478-422 and like I said above had a DD advantage in the second half. Eastern Michigan not only trailed by DD in the 1st Half, they were outgained for the game 431-302. The Eagles’ rushing attack was virtually non-existent as it averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry. As for Ball State, they gained 169 yards on 38 carries.

Despite losing to Miami last week, I have high hopes for this Ball State squad, this week and beyond. They are a veteran team that was actually 4th in YPG differential LY in the conference. Eastern Michigan has a lot LESS returning talent this year and even though they came close last week, it was against a weaker opponent than who Ball State faced. The Cardinals gained 453 yards in last season’s 29-23 win in Ypsilanti and I think are in for another big night here. This being the 2nd of B2B road games is a clear disadvantage for Eastern Michigan. 10* Ball State

8* Bowling Green (7:30 ET): Pretty shocking to see Kent State this big of a favorite, even if the opponent is Bowling Green. The Golden Flashes have been a road favorite just one time under HC Sean Lewis (3rd year here) previous to this. It was last season against what would end up being an 0-12 Akron team. Bowling Green isn’t quite that bad and they are actually getting more points here than Akron did a season ago. Kent State has been road chalk just four times in the last six seasons as well! 

The Golden Flashes did win a home game in their season opener, 27-23 over Eastern Michigan. They did not cover the 5.5-point number as they actually trailed in the 4th quarter and did not score the go-ahead TD until there was 7:30 to go. Of course, a win was a lot better than what Bowling Green did in its season opener. They fell 38-3 at Toledo. That was a really disappointing effort to open HC Scott Loeffler’s second season. But the good news is that the Falcons were a .500 team at home last season and they are back at Perry Stadium this week.

Matt McDonald was thought to be an upgrade at QB for BG, but the Boston College transfer really struggled LW vs. Toledo. I expect him to play better this week. As an underdog, the Falcons can use all the help that they can get. A weather forecast calling for 20 MPH wind might be to their benefit. Wind or not, I just think this is too many points for Kent State to be laying right now. They had a strong finish to 2019, going 5-0 ATS L5 (including a bowl win) but all those covers came from the underdog role. Last week they showed they may struggle ATS as favorites. Take the points. 8* Bowling Green

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This line was quickly bet up, but it’s still under four touchdowns (28 pts) and that’s still a value to me. In its season opener, Akron once again demonstrated that they’re not even close to being a competitive outfit. They lost 58-13 to Western Michigan and gave up nearly 500 total yards in the process. Remember that the Zips were 0-12 SU in 2019 and last in the country in scoring offense. Ohio was also unsuccessful in their first game, although it was a lot closer when they lost 27-20 to Central Michigan. I was a little shocked the Bobcats didn’t score an offensive TD in the 2nd half in that one. 

From 2014-17, these MAC East rivals were pretty competitive. All four meetings were decided by six points or less, three of them by a total of eight points. Ohio won three of the four and as you might ascertain they’ve since seized control of the rivalry. In 2018, they won 49-28 here in Athens. Last year it was a 52-3 rout at Infocision Stadium. Akron has now lost 12 straight MAC games and all but one has been by double digits!  They are 3-14 ATS L17 MAC games. 

Akron was w/o its starting QB and RB last week, which you could say helps explain the lopsided result. But given how bad the team was last year, I wouldn’t expect drastic improvement even if QB Nelson or RB Gest were to return. Overall, the Zips ended up starting nine players against WMU who are either freshmen or transfers, including four redshirts along the OL. Ohio’s defense gave up only 4.85 yards per play last week (were on the field for 88 plays) while Akron’s was torched for 8.43. This should end up being the Bobcats’ easiest win of 2020. 10* Ohio

8* Tennessee (7:30 ET): Here’s a (small) favorite for the 3-pack, on the road no less. A big reason why I’m fading Arkansas here is that they are 5-0 ATS, a run they will not be able to continue. But it’s also a good spot for Tennessee. The Vols, on a three-game losing streak, are coming out of a bye. Two of those three losses were to Georgia and Alabama. They were #14 in the country before the losing streak began. Now they’re laying less than a field goal to who we all thought was the worst SEC West team coming into the year. 

As evident by their perfect ATS mark, Arkansas has been surprisingly competitive this season. They have wins over Miss State and Ole Miss. They probably SHOULD have beaten Auburn. Coming into 2020, the Razorbacks had not won an SEC game since 2017. Last week, they looked more like the team we are accustomed to seeing in SEC play. While they did get in through the backdoor against Texas A&M (lost 42-31 as a 14.5-pt dog), they trailed 42-17 going into the 4Q and the TD that put them “in the money” came in the final minute.

Tennessee actually led Georgia at halftime! They’ve been victimized by some poor luck/carelessness as they’ve been on the wrong end of THREE defensive TDs during their losing streak. Right now, the Volunteers are dead last in the SEC in third down conversion rate (at 26%). I do not expect that to continue. And speaking of turnovers, Arkansas was a VERY fortunate +7 in their two wins. They were actually outgained in both of those victories. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS L10 as a road favorite of 3 pts or less and 7-3 ATS L10 road games overall. 8* Tennessee

8* Baylor (7:00 ET): Baylor did NOT play well last week. They trailed TCU 30-0 in the first half, at home. While the Bears did rally to get within 10, you really can’t call the 33-23 loss “close.” But similarly, Iowa State’s 52-22 win over Kansas last week was not as big of a “blowout” as you might think. The Cyclones were “only” up 16 on the worst team in the Big 12 with just over five minutes remaining. Though they ended up covering the number there, ISU has NOT been reliable as a big favorite including a 2-6 ATS mark when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Baylor is 20-9-1 ATS as a double digit dog. 

With Oklahoma State losing to Texas last week, Iowa State is now tied for the conference lead. They are ranked #17 in the country. But in addition to their own woes as chalk, we have consistently seen ranked teams struggle to cover as DD favorites against unranked opponents this College Football season. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the L3 times they’ve been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. A number of Iowa State games have been close calls this season. Three of the six games have been decided by 7 points or less.

Baylor’s defense actually ranks 4th in the Big 12 in terms of yards allowed. The offense, despite a senior QB (Charlie Brewer), has been the issue this season. Brewer’s completion percentage is at a career-low right now, but some of that has to do with the offensive line, which is now healthy for the first time this season. Despite the 1-3 SU record, Baylor actually does have a positive scoring differential as none of their losses have been by more than 11 points. They were able to stay within 11 of Texas in Austin. The number here is even larger than it was in Austin, which is something I don’t agree with as I’ve got Texas higher in my power rankings. Take the points. 8* Baylor

8* Western Kentucky (6:00 ET): Well, I’m going to give the Hilltoppers another try this week. They are now 0-7 at the betting window (worst ATS record in the country) and 2-5 SU after LW’s 41-10 loss to #9 BYU. WKU is clearly underperforming expectations this season, but it is worth noting last week they had three 10+ play drives amount to a combined three points. That’s stunning. QB Tyrrell Pigrome is back, so I have confidence that the Hilltoppers can move the ball and in a game with a (very) low total, I’m taking the points. 

Florida Atlantic has played just three games. I faded them in the first, a 21-17 win over Charlotte where they did NOT cover the spread. Since then, the Owls have lost 20-9 at Marshall and won 24-3 over UTSA. So no FAU game has seen more than 38 total points scored! With that being the case, it is very difficult to imagine them covering the spread as this large of a favorite. This just isn’t the same team we saw under Lane Kiffin. The Owls certainly aren’t in the same class as previous WKU opponents such as UAB, Liberty, Louisville and especially BYU. 

I just have a hard time believing WKU is as bad as they have looked thus far. The fact they have played seven games and FAU has played only three is an advantage for the underdog. Again, FAU has yet to score more than 24 points in any game this season. Thus, no matter the opponent, you almost HAVE to fade with them in this kind of price range. Western Kentucky WILL improve on its almost unfathomable 29.5% third down conversion rate. The defense hasn’t been bad, all things considered. Take the points. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma (3:30 ET): During this perfect 11-0 NCAAF totals run that I am on, it’s been pretty surprising just how many Unders have been cashed. What I’ve been doing is simply going Under in games where one or both teams have been on long Over streaks. We’ve got one here in Kansas, who has seen all of its games - but one - go Over this season. That one exception, a 47-14 loss to Baylor, was a push. This matchup with Oklahoma completely fits the bill of what I’ve been doing during the streak. I’m taking the Under. 

Now I realize there is concern that Oklahoma has the capability to send this one Over themselves. Last week, the Sooners hung 62 on Texas Tech. But their previous high (in regulation) for a game was 48 against a FCS school, Missouri State, and that was also a shutout. If OU is up as big as expected here (they are a 38-pt favorite!), then it’s highly likely they take their “foot off the gas” in the second half. Last week they scored 48 in the first half and then only 14 in the second. It’s unlikely they are going to score 48 in a half two weeks in a row. 

Kansas won’t score much at all here. The 22 points they put up last week was a season-high in Big 12 play. The previous four games were all 17 pts or less and twice they failed to reach 200 total yards. It should be noted that four of their six games have finished with 61 total points or less. Last week was right at 60 before Iowa State curiously scored two late TDs.  This is the highest O/U line of the year for any Kansas game. It will stay Under the number. 10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma

9* Nebraska (12:00 ET): So the Cornhuskers got an unexpected bye last week when their scheduled opponent (Wisconsin) got hit with a COVID 19 outbreak. That was dually beneficial, not just for the bye, but also they avoided what would have been a likely loss in Lincoln. The ‘Huskers have already lost once this year, not unexpectedly, as they went up against Ohio State in the season opener and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. But this week’s opponent isn’t Ohio State or Wisconsin. Take the points.

Northwestern is 2-0, but needed to come back from an early 17-0 deficit to win last Saturday in Iowa. The Wildcats were far more impressive the previous week, beating Maryland 43-3, which now looks even more impressive given how the Terps handled Minnesota. But something that sticks out to me about this Wildcats’ team is that they have benefited from SEVEN turnovers (by the opponents) in two games! They can’t count on receiving that many giveaways every week. It should also be pointed out that the N’western offense had just 273 total yards last week and had a horrible 2.4 yards per rush attempt. 

Even though it’s a unique and shortened season, Nebraska needs to show SOMETHING in its third year under HC Scott Frost. The team went just 4-8 and 5-7 his first two years here. They lost three games as a favorite in 2019. I like the chances of covering here as four of the last five meetings w/ Northwestern have been one score games, three of which have been by a field goal or less. Two went to overtime. Frost used two QBs against Ohio State, which will make his team difficult to prepare for. Northwestern is 1-7-1 ATS its last 9 games as a home favorite. 9* Nebraska

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): Needless to say, it’s been a couple of VERY different starts to the season for these two Mountain West teams. Utah State is 0-2 SU/ATS. They’ve been outscored 80-20 and the lone TD last week came on a circus catch near the end of the half. But, as always, some context needs to be provided.  So far, the Aggies have faced Boise State and San Diego State, two of the standard bearers in this conference. I think we’re getting a REAL generous number here as they are set to visit Reno. 

Nevada is 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. But the Wolf Pack have played Wyoming and UNLV. Wyoming lost its starting QB early, yet was still able to force OT against the Wolf Pack. I tried taking a flier on UNLV hosting the Wolf Pack last Saturday night. While that ended up NOT working out (Nevada won 37-19 as a 2 TD favorite), note that was a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. Something I find fascinating for this matchup is that last year Utah State was a 21-point favorite in Logan … and covered the spread.

Granted that was w/ Jordan Love at QB, but I don’t think the odds should be shifting more than FIVE touchdowns from last season’s meeting. Utah State HC Gary Andersen really ripped his team’s 2H effort vs. San Diego State, thus we should be getting a pretty motivated performance from the dog on Thursday night. It’s a national TV game (FS1) where the Aggies don’t want to be embarrassed. Eight of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 pts or less. USU has covered just one of the last five as a home favorite. 10* Utah State

8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Ohio HC Frank Solich has never won a MAC Title despite being the conference’s all-time wins leader. For the second consecutive season, the Bobcats come in as the betting favorite to win the conference. They open in Mt Pleasant against a Central Michigan team that has given them fits in the past. This non-division rivalry has seen CMU capture four in a row, three of those wins coming as underdogs. The Chippewas had an incredible bounce back in 2019, going from 1-11 SU (in ‘18) to 8-6 and an appearance in the MAC Championship. I believe they’re likely to regress in 2020 and OU gets its revenge.

The big storyline (for both teams) coming into this season opener will be at the QB position. Both are breaking in new starters at the most important position. Ohio can’t possibly replace the production of Nathan Rourke, who left as the school’s all-time leading passer and was a running threat as well. But whoever ends up being the new starter will have a lot of talent at RB and WR. Three starters also return along the offensive line. For the record, we will probably see both Kurtis Rourke (Nathan’s brother) and Armani Rogers (UNLV transfer) under center for the Bobcats on Wednesday.

Central Michigan will almost certainly be starting freshman Daniel Richardson, although Sam Houston State transfer Ty Brock could get some snaps as well. The issue here is that senior David Moore is under suspension for PED use. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chips lost a pair of corners before fall camp. They have less overall production returning than Ohio and I believe the “plexiglass principle” is in play this year for CMU. Solich will badly want to beat this team, especially after starting LY 1-3. The Bobcats’ receivers will exploit the depleted CMU secondary and move the team to 12-5 SU L17 MAC games. 8* Ohio

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): The Rebels certainly didn’t show much in their first game under new HC Marcus Arroyo. They were soundly beaten, 34-6 by San Diego State, gaining just 186 total yards in the process. But that was one of the Mountain West’s top teams they were up against there and it was on the road. Here, they’re at home and playing their rival (battle for the “Fremont Cannon!”), who they’ve upset each of the last two seasons. This is actually the 1st game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium that will have fans. The line has moved too much. Take the points. 

Nevada’s season started with a 37-34 overtime win against Wyoming. The Wolfpack had a double digit early, but let the Cowboys back in it despite the fact they lost their starting QB. Winning close is nothing new for Nevada as they are now 9-3 SU the L2 seasons in games decided by seven points or less. That makes the fans in Reno happy, but it also means the Wolf Pack aren’t exactly an ideal candidate to be laying this many points. Two of those three close losses that they’ve suffered came at the hands of UNLV, including 34-29 as a 2 TD favorite here in Vegas two years ago. 

Last season, the Rebels pulled off a 33-30 upset in Reno, a game that went to overtime and was marred by a post-game brawl. Nevada is traditionally not a great road team as LY they faced just one team that was in a bowl away from home. They are 2-5 ATS L7 as a road favorite. While UNLV was gashed on the ground by San Diego State last week, Nevada had only 76 yds rushing in its win over Wyoming (less than 3.0 yds per carry).  The Rebels are 12-3-1 ATS following an ATS loss. 8* UNLV

8* Western Kentucky (10:15 ET): I don’t think any team has underperformed its expectations this College Football season more so than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS, easily the worst such mark in the country. Last week, they barely managed to beat an FCS squad, Chattanooga. While this might not exactly be a “rousing” endorsement of a side I’m going to take on Saturday against a BYU team that has clearly OVERPERFORMED its own expectations, this is a lot of points & I don’t think WKU is this bad. 

BYU is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. This will already be the third time this season that the Cougars have been asked to lay 28 or more points at the betting window. Their lone ATS loss came in a really lethargic effort vs. UTSA three weeks ago when they only won 27-20 as 34-point chalk. Last week did see them defeat Texas State 52-14 as a 29-point favorite. But as rough as things have been for Western Kentucky so far, they are still a better team than those two aforementioned BYU opponents. I have the Hilltoppers rated several points higher than Texas State, for example.

Three of Western Kentucky’s six games, including both of their SU wins, have been decided by six points or less. They also stayed within 14 of Louisville in the season opener. I can’t imagine a team going winless ATS for an entire season, so you know that elusive first cover is coming for the team from Bowling Green. They have covered 10 of the last 14 times they’ve been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. BYU is in a look ahead to a showdown with Boise State next week, which will be their toughest regular season game. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Charlotte (7:00 ET): While there is no denying that Duke’s all-ACC schedule has been more difficult than what Charlotte has faced thus far, I still don’t think the Blue Devils should be laying more than a touchdown in this spot - even after a bye. Under HC David Cutcliffe, Duke has been terrible as a favorite, going just 1-7 ATS when -3.5 to -10 and that includes SIX outright losses! They are a 1-5 (SU) team that turns the ball over way too much for my tastes (22 times in six games). Trust me when I say you’re going to want to take the points in this one. 

Charlotte comes in at 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS. Last week was the first non-cover of the season as they only beat UTEP by 10 (were laying 17). The 49ers have been dogs two times previous to this and (obviously) covered both times. Those games were against a pair of conference champs from last season, Appalachian State and Florida Atlantic. I had them against FAU. That was followed by a 49-21 thrashing of North Texas on the road as 3.5-point chalk where they gained over 600 total yards of offense. They didn’t move the ball nearly as well last week vs. UTEP (surprising) but fortunately for the 49ers, Duke has allowed 26+ points in every game so far.

Duke’s only win this year was against a Syracuse team that is really bad. They turned it over the same number of times in their last game (3) as Charlotte has all season. The Blue Devils are last in the ACC in turnover margin while Charlotte is 1st in that department among C-USA teams. The 49ers also lead their conference in time of possession. Not only is Duke w/o its star CB Mark Gilbert, starting center Will Taylor just had knee surgery. QB Chase Brice is completing only 55% of his attempts and has 11 interceptions. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Notre Dame/Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): Georgia Tech is two weeks removed from a 73-7 beatdown at the hands of Clemson. I played against them last week, thinking +3.5 was WAY too short of a number on the road vs. Boston College. I couldn’t have been more right. The Yellow Jackets lost 48-27 in Chestnut Hill in what was my top ACC play for October. However, be advised that the number of points GT allowed was a bit misleading. BC had a defensive TD + three scoring drives of less than 40 yards (all TDs). 

Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this year and off to a 5-0 start (four wins in conference play). They completely crushed Pitt last week with the offense putting up 45 points. But let’s not dismiss what the defense did, holding the Panthers to just three points and 44 yards rushing. The Fighting Irish lead the ACC in both scoring and total defense and are top 10 nationally in both categories. They’ve allowed only one opponent (Florida State) to score more than 13 points this year.

Maybe Notre Dame can ask Georgia Tech for some “tips” about facing Clemson because that’s who the Irish will face NEXT week. With such a huge game on deck (two Top 5 teams!), I seriously doubt Brian Kelly will want to show much offensively in a game his team should win easily. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the Irish scored only 12 points in a win over Louisville. So it’s not as if they’re immune to an “off day.” Georgia Tech’s defense has been pretty bad, leading to five straight Overs, but remember the theme of this 3-pack. They’ll benefit from ND being a little disinterested in this one. 8* Under Notre Dame/Ga Tech

8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State (12:00 ET): The theme of this 3-pack of totals will be readily apparent to those who have followed recent/season results. Bottom line is I’m looking to buck the Over trends from certain teams. One such example is Georgia State, who has gone Over in all four games this season. The last time I checked in with this team was two weeks ago and they gave up 59 points in a loss to Arkansas State (They scored 52 in that game). Crazy as it may sound, the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as that performance (or some other numbers suggest).

Georgia State is actually quite good at stopping the run. They are allowing just 97.0 YPG on the ground and 3.15 yards per carry, both of which are Sun Belt bests. This is particularly handy against a Coastal Carolina offense whose strength is an ability to run and will likely be starting a backup QB for the second straight week. In last week’s 36-34 win over Troy, Georgia State gave up two defensive touchdowns, skewing the scoreboard. Besides the wild Arkansas State game, the Panthers’ defense has not surrendered more than 30 points in regulation all season.

Coastal Carolina’s defense was outstanding last week as it held Georgia Southern to 14 points (none in the 2H) and only 218 total yards in a season-best effort. The Chanticleers have held every opponent to 27 points or less and are now 5-0 SU, earning themselves a Top 20 ranking for the 1st time. The defense is #26 in the country in yards allowed per game. With Fred Payton likely to start in place of the injured Grayson McCall for a second straight game, the offense isn’t as dynamic as it was at the start of the season. Even w/ the number coming down, this is still likely to close as the 2nd highest CC O/U line to date. 8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State

8* Under Temple/Tulane (12:00 ET): These teams are a combined 7-1-1 Over, but remember the theme of the 3-pack. Temple has played only three times and every game has been pretty wild w/ a 39-37 come from behind win over USF sandwiched in between losses to Navy (31-29) and Memphis (41-29). Tulane is just 2-4 w/ the L5 games all going Over the total. The fewest number of total points scored in a Green Wave game the L4 weeks has been 71! But they’ve been up against some pretty great offenses and that’s not really the case here.

The last three games have seen Tulane face Houston, SMU and Central Florida, three of the top offenses in the American. The Green Wave certainly didn’t get a ton of stops in those games, but the defense has been very good at generating a pass rush (2+ sacks in every game besides Navy, who really doesn’t throw) and Temple really struggled in pass protection LW vs. Memphis. The Green Wave were just blitzed in the 2nd quarter by UCF last week (gave up 27 points) but really weren’t that bad otherwise (crazy as that may sound). They also shut out Navy for a half earlier in the season.

The strength of the Tulane offense is running the football, but note Temple is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Tulane has scored a total of THREE defensive touchdowns the L3 games, so the offense isn’t as productive as those final scores might lead you to believe. The SMU game went to overtime and the game vs. Houston featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. Take that “randomness” out of the equation, all of a sudden the games aren’t as high-scoring. Last year’s game was 29-21 (in favor of Temple) despite Tulane running for 200 yards. I expect both defenses to step up here. 8* Under Temple/Tulane

8* Maryland (7:30 ET): Maryland played a horrendous season opener, turning it over four times and losing 43-3 at Northwestern. They’ve got to shake that off as they prepare to welcome in a Minnesota team that’s off its own blowout loss. The Golden Gophers were thinking upset last Saturday night as they hosted Michigan, but had no answers defensively in a 49-25 defeat where they gave up 35 first half points and nearly 500 total yards for the game. So there is hope for the Terps Friday night and I’ll take the points.

It’s going to be tough for Minnesota to bounce back from last week. They’ll probably still win here mind you, but the team thought it could compete with Michigan and didn’t. A short week is not the remedy to get over a disappointing loss such as that one. Yes, I remember the Gophers did win 11 games LY but they also played a very soft schedule (by Big 10 standards). They clobbered Maryland 52-10 at home, which I’m sure is remembered by the Terrapins. HC PJ Fleck usually does a good job motivating his teams, but I do not believe Minnesota will be the more motivated team Friday night. 

Going back to last year, Maryland has now lost eight in a row by an average of more than 30 PPG. That’s not good for HC Mike Locksley, whose tenure began with two wins where the offense scored 142 points! Since then, the Terps are 1-10 SU with the only win coming against Rutgers. Even though it’s just his second season here in College Park, Locksley can ill-afford a blowout loss on national television. Despite the success under Fleck, this is more points than Minnesota is accustomed to laying on the road. They were just -16 at home vs. Maryland LY. 8* Maryland

10* Colorado State (10:00 ET): Last week saw the Mountain West Conference join the College Football season, although that did not include Colorado State, whose scheduled game vs. New Mexico had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. The Rams are expected to be an improved outfit this year under new coach Steve Addazio, who was fired after a solid (if unspectacular) tenure at Boston College. CSU actually outgained its foes in conference play last year despite a 3-5 SU record and should improve their -11 TO margin as well. I look for Addazio to have a successful debut Thursday night. Lay the short number. 

Fresno State really nosedived last season as they won just 4 games after B2B 10+ win seasons. That resulted in Jeff Tedford stepping down as HC and being replaced by former assistant Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs did play last week and I didn’t exactly see a lot of reasons for optimism as they were shredded on the ground by Hawaii in a 34-19 home loss. The Bulldogs gave up 323 yds rushing (6.1 YPC!) and 552 yards total. They also turned the ball over four times in a game where they were 2.5-pt favorites. 

The line has moved in CSU’s direction for this Thursday night affair and I have to say that I AGREE with the move. The Rams won here last season, 41-31, as a 2-TD underdog and have now covered five of the last seven meetings overall. They have a senior QB in Patrick O’Brien, who should have a good season. His top receiver from a year ago (Warren Jackson) is gone, but expect Dante Wright to step up and fill those shoes. CSU had an excellent pass defense a year ago (ranked 7th nationally). Not only did Fresno State score just 19 pts last week, but both TD drives were 33 yards or less. 10* Colorado State

8* West Virginia (5:30 ET): The Mountaineers have traditionally excelled as favorites, at least the few seasons they have. They are 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the role the L3 seasons, which includes last week’s push against Kansas where they were laying 21 points. The number is a lot more manageable this week, though WVU is on the road. But Texas Tech has really struggled in the early going and as mentioned in the Oklahoma State writeup, favorites of 4 pts or less are 20-9 ATS this season. Lay this short number as well. 

Really, Texas Tech’s “best” performance of the year came in a 63-56 overtime loss to Texas here in Lubbock. They blew a double digit 4Q lead in that one and ever since then it’s been all downhill. The Red Raiders lost 31-21 at Kansas State and then 31-15 at Iowa State two weeks ago. Their only victory of the season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then the defense surrendered 600 total yards and needed to stop a 2-pt conversion to seal an ugly 35-33 win. Henry Colombi, a Utah State transfer that followed HC Matt Wells to Lubbock, is going to be making his first career start here. 

West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous this season as it is allowing 240.3 total yards per game and only 4.05 yards per play. They played a lot better in their only loss, 27-13 at Oklahoma State, than the final score shows. On offense, the Mountaineers are running the ball a lot better than they did a year ago, averaging almost 190 YPG behind Leddie Brown. Texas Tech’s defense has just been wretched, giving up almost 500 YPG and allowing all four opponents to score at least 31 pts. 8* West Virginia

8* Boston College (4:00 ET): Here’s another short number that has me a bit perplexed. Georgia Tech just got annihilated by Clemson last week, losing 73-7. Little is expected from the Yellow Jackets this season. Obviously, last week will be as “bad as it gets,” but I don’t think Boston College will have much problem winning this game in Chapel Hill. While they too were on the wrong end of a blowout last Saturday (40-14 vs. Va Tech), that result can easily be explained by the fact the Eagles turned it over five times. Lay the points here. 

Georgia Tech has two wins, both upsets, but neither are as impressive as they looked at the time. Opening the season with a 16-13 win at Florida State certainly turned some heads, but FSU was a much different team back then and still is nowhere as good as many thought they’d be. Two weeks ago, on a Friday night, the Yellow Jackets upset Louisville 46-27 in Atlanta. But they were actually outgained and a +3 TO margin was the story there. The other three games have seen GT get outscored 159-48. Yes, most of that was Clemson. But the Yellow Jackets also gave up 37 points to Syracuse. 

Boston College also has a couple of upset wins on its resume, theirs coming at the expense of Duke and Pitt. They also took North Carolina to the wire (lost 26-22) here at home. This will actually be just the 2nd time the Eagles have been favorites this season, the first being an unimpressive 21-16 win over Texas State. But they aren’t about to take a conference rival, one they haven’t beaten since 2007, lightly. When it’s not generating turnovers, the Georgia Tech offense can’t stop anybody. BC QB Jurkovec has gone over 300 yds passing in 4 of 5 games. I don’t see how GT shakes off last week’s loss. 8* Boston College

10* Under Alabama/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that’s played at least four games and has yet to see an Under. While an offense averaging 48.5 PPG (#2 in the country behind Texas, who is the other 4-0 Over team) has been a driving force, the Crimson Tide’s defense has surprisingly given up an average of 28.8 PPG, which is very high for a Nick Saban outfit. Of course, that number of PPG allowed is still heavily inflated by the Ole Miss game (where the Tide allowed 48 pts). The other three games have seen them allow no more than 24 and I think we’re in store for an Under this week.

This rivalry, played annually on the third Saturday of October, has not gone well for Tennessee in recent years. Their last win came back in 2006 (here in Knoxville), which was the year before Saban took over Bama. The Tide have been ranked in the top 8 for each of the last 12 meetings and incredibly this will be the 10th time under Saban they’ve been ranked #1 or #2 when facing Tennessee (were #1 each of the last four years). The Vols have had all sorts of trouble scoring on Saban’s defense, never scoring more than 21 and getting held to an average of just 12.3 PPG! 

Tennessee comes into this year’s matchup averaging just 23.5 PPG after it was held to only 7 points by Kentucky last week. It was the second week in a row they lost and were held below 300 total yards. They turned it over seven times during that stretch. Bama’s defense is going to get better on third down, it could rain Saturday afternoon in Knoxville and this is the highest total (by a lot) for any Tennessee game this season. For Alabama, only the Ole Miss game had a higher O/U line. While Bama can definitely score, if they are up big in the 2H, they’ll take their “foot off the gas” as per usual.  10* Under Alabama/Tennessee

9* Wake Forest (3:30 ET): Wake Forest has long been a “dangerous” team under Dave Clawson. It seems as if almost every year the Demon Deacons outperform expectations and that’s the sign of good coaching. While it was by no means an “impressive” showing, Wake covered for us in the season opener against Clemson. After that, they suffered a 3-pt loss at NC State. But now they are off B2B wins, squaring the record at 2-2 SU. The Deacons have scored a total of 148 points in the L3 games, making them a tough team to want to lay points against (as Virginia found out last week). This is a generous number you should take. 

Virginia Tech comes in off a 40-14 win over Boston College, but that final score was misleading in the sense the Hokies only had a slight +26 edge in total yards. How they were able to turn it into a blowout was thanks to FIVE BC turnovers. This Hokies’ defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping people as it is giving up 471.8 YPG. It was just two weeks ago that they gave up 56 points and 656 total yards. That was a road game. Va Tech is 0-2 ATS on the road as they also failed to cover as favorites in a 38-31 win over Duke. 

Wake Forest may not be North Carolina. But they are better than Duke, yet are getting basically the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers. Actually, this number has been steamed up a bit, which I don’t understand as my own power rankings have this one rated close to a pick ‘em! Ranked teams are a woeful 19-41 ATS this season when facing an unranked opponent and that is what we have here. Virginia Tech is just 7-19-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2012, including 4-9-1 under Justin Fuente. The Demon Deacons are 13-5 ATS vs. Top 25 teams under Clawson, including the cover vs. Clemson in the season opener. 9* Wake Forest

8* Oklahoma State (3:30 ET): As the only Big 12 team w/o a loss, #6 OK State is probably the conference’s lone chance of sending a team to the CFP. #17 Iowa State is also unbeaten in conference play, but suffered a loss to Louisiana in the season opener that now looks worse than it did a month ago. I’m a little surprised that in Stillwater this line is so low. Favorites have generally struggled ATS this year in College Football, but have covered 10 of the 11 matchups of Top 25 teams so far. Furthermore, chalk of 4 pts or less have gone 20-9 ATS including 9-2 as the home team. Lay the short number in this one.

The reason Iowa State is getting so much respect here probably has to do with the fact HC Matt Campbell has been tremendous in his career as a dog (32-14 ATS) and is 5-0 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents. But the Cyclones easily could be 1-3 SU instead of 3-1 right now. Not only did they lose outright (as a 13-pt home favorite) to Louisiana, but they were outgained at TCU (won 37-34) and trailed by double digits against Oklahoma. Really, the only “complete” performance we’ve seen from ISU was the 31-15 win over Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that’s a team still winless in Big 12 play. This will - easily - be the best defense that will have faced to date. 

Oklahoma State has been off for three weeks (COVID-19 related, obviously), which has allowed for QB Spencer Sanders to get healthy. Sanders was injured early in the first game vs. Tulsa and the offense has certainly suffered in his absence. Yet the Pokes are still 3-0. They’ll only get better with Sanders back in the mix. The defense has allowed just 27 points in three games and is #1 in the country on third down, allowing only a 17% conversion rate. The Cowboys have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (including 34-27 LY as a 10-pt dog in Ames) and are 5-3 ATS. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has played just two games in 2020 but both were against good teams (Oklahoma State, UCF) and they came out 2-0 ATS. They upset UCF as a 3 TD underdog and nearly did the same to OK State getting an even larger number (I had them in that game). The Golden Hurricane were scheduled to face a third straight ranked opponent (Cincinnati) last week, but that had to be shelved due to COVID-19. Now, off an unscheduled break, they finally get to face a lesser opponent in USF. 

South Florida looked as if they might pull off their own upset last Saturday in Temple. Getting double digits, they were ahead most of the game, but ultimately lost 39-37. That kind of effort was a “far cry” from what we’d seen from the Bulls previously. Besides Temple, they’ve been outscored 124-31 by FBS opponents. Every loss was by at least 20 points including one here at home to lowly East Carolina. The team’s only win this year was against The Citadel and they’ve allowed 39+ points in three of five games. 

While Tulsa may be unaccustomed to laying this kind of weight on the road, they should be more than ready for what shapes up as their easiest game to date. The Golden Hurricane’s defense has been much improved. After falling behind UCF early, they held the Golden Knights to just 10 points over the final three quarters. That was after holding OK State to just three points in the first three quarters of the season opener. This team was a lot better than its record showed LY and has a senior QB Zach Smith leading an offense that will continue to improve. Tulsa is simply a much better football team than USF. 10* Tulsa

10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games. 

Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far. 

Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State

10* North Texas (5:00 ET): This week’s top selection boils down to the simple fact that I don’t think Middle Tennessee deserves to be laying a TD to anyone. This is a team that opened its season with a pair of horrible losses, 42-0 at Army and 47-14 to Troy, the latter of which I cashed in on. I did then turn around and tell you to take the points as the Blue Raiders traveled to UTSA on a Friday night. They covered there (as 6-pt dogs), but still lost by two. Another close loss (20-17) followed, at the hands of Western Kentucky, leaving MTSU at 0-4. Finally, they won a game last week, though it was by just a FG over FIU.

The fact Middle Tennessee was a 6-point underdog to UTSA should tell you “all you need to know.” The market has shifted too far in the other direction following three consecutive ATS victories. I have these teams rated almost dead even, so even if factoring in a little bit of a home field edge for MTSU, this number should be a lot shorter. It will be the first time this season that the Blue Raiders are favored. I’m not going to try and convince you that North Texas is a great team, but the Mean Green do have a great offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number here. 

North Texas actually entered last week with a Top 10 rushing offense (in the country!) but were held to just 97 yards on 27 attempts as they fell behind early against Charlotte. It was the third straight game the defense gave up 41+ points. But the Mean Green still lead C-USA with 550 total YPG and 347 passing. QB Austin Aune is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Middle Tennessee is still giving up 35 PPG and has failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve been favored. Had the Blue Raiders not scored a GW TD in the final 80 seconds last week, they’d be entering this game at 0-5 and we’d have a much more accurate line. Take the points. 10* North Texas

9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas (3:30 ET): When Lane Kiffin was hired to be the head coach of Ole Miss, you had to figure there wouldn’t be many dull Saturdays in Oxford. But even by Kiffin standards, these first three games have been pretty insane (especially last week’s). There have been 86, 83 and 111 pts scored. However, some context should be provided as they’ve faced two top five teams (Florida & Alabama) plus the one win (over Kentucky) went to OT. Still, that’s a lot of scoring. The Over is obviously 3-0 in Ole Miss games. 

It was thought that by playing an all-SEC schedule this year, Arkansas would be having many LONG Saturdays. However, the Razorbacks seem to be vastly improved as they’ve won at Miss State and should have won at Auburn last week. Being 3-0 ATS (also covered vs. Georgia) is a nice way for HC Sam Pittman’s own SEC tenure to begin as they hadn’t seen many league wins in Fayetteville in recent years. Prior to Pittman taking over, the Hogs had lost 19 in a row in conference play.

This is the highest total on the board this week in College Football, which I can’t say surprises me. But the Ole Miss’ offense can’t possibly keep putting points on the board like it has and this is an obvious flat spot after the Alabama loss. The defense can only improve and facing one of the weaker SEC offenses is the perfect prescription. Arkansas is only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games. For a game to go Over this number, Ole Miss needs a suitable “dance partner” and the Razorbacks are simply NOT that team. 9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas

8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points. 

East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF. 

With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina

8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): Considering the performance we just saw Miami turn in at Death Valley, the line move here has me really perplexed. As I’d anticipated, “The U” got totally outclassed by top-ranked Clemson last Saturday night in a 42-17 defeat that really could have been much worse. The Hurricanes were outgained 550-210 and got one of their two TDs off a blocked FG attempt at the end of the half. Clemson also missed two field goals and had a WR drop a pass that would have resulted in a TD. 

The question now becomes - “how does Miami respond after such a humbling defeat?” Well, history really doesn’t seem to be on their side. First off, the last three ACC teams to lose to Clemson have all lost again the following week. Furthermore, since 2009, ranked teams are 9-25 ATS the week after facing the Tigers including 2-9 ATS if they are laying double digits. The ‘Canes are 2-0 ATS as DD chalk so far this season, but those games were against UAB and Florida State. Prior to this season, they’d been on a 2-14 ATS run when favored by seven or more points and last year they went 0-4 ATS w/ three outright losses as DD chalk. 

Like Miami, Pitt has taken a step back following a 3-0 SU start. They’ve lost B2B weeks, but those losses (BC, NC State) were both by one point. Basically, the Panthers are two plays away from being 5-0. They outgained NC State by more than 100 yards, but gave up a late TD pass. Then they lost in OT to BC on a missed XP. QB Kenny Pickett, who leads the FBS in passing yards, is dealing with an injured ankle. That may explain the line move, but HC Pat Narduzzi seemed hopeful that he would play. Regardless, Narduzzi is 18-9-1 ATS in road games including 5-1 as a DD dog. Take the points. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Tulane (6:00 ET): Tulane is 2-2 SU on the year, but easily could be 4-0. In both losses, they held a double digit lead - 24-0 over Navy and 24-7 over Houston. Now the Green Wave only managed to gain a paltry 221 total yds LW vs. Houston, but considering they were +5 in turnovers, that’s a game you HAVE to win. While it should be pointed out that Tulane did have to come from behind (at South Alabama) for one of its two wins, they also waxed Southern Miss 66-24 the first time I took them. This will be the third straight time (also had them vs. Houston), but the difference now is they’re a home dog for the 1st time in 2020.

SMU is 4-0. They’ve had a couple of close wins, the first being the season opener at Texas State (where I cashed the Under) and then two weeks ago against Memphis. In that Memphis game, the Ponies prevailed 30-27 as a 1.5-pt favorite. But the defense gave up nearly 600 total yards, only to benefit from four Memphis turnovers. Note that three of those turnovers took place in Mustangs territory, one of them an end zone INT. It was the second time this year that the SMU defense surrendered over 500 yards. 

SMU might be coming into this one ranked #17 in the country, but that’s a case of the pollsters simply looking at the WL record w/o any real context. I’ve got them outside the top 30 of my own power rankings and that doesn’t even include teams from the Big 10/Pac 12. SP+ has them at #40. Tulane’s running game, which was shockingly held to just 70 yds last week, is usually very effective. Take away a game vs. FCS Stephen F Austin and the SMU run defense gives up over 200 YPG at 4.7 YPC. While the SMU offense is #1 in the country in yards per game, they just lost their leading rusher and receiver to injury in the Memphis game and that is obviously quite significant. SMU is just 2-6 ATS its L8 tries as a road favorite while Tulane has covered five in a row as a home dog. Having lost five years in a row to SMU, this is a revenge game. Take the points here. 10* Tulane

10* Georgia State (7:30 ET): Georgia State has played only two games so far. They’ve covered both and probably should be 2-0 straight up as well. They opened the season by taking on Sun Belt favorite Louisiana. In that game, the Panthers jumped out to an early 2 TD lead. That’s pretty significant as they were 17-point underdogs! Unfortunately, they could not hold on, losing 34-31 in overtime. After a game with Charlotte was postponed (COVID), Georgia State wasn’t going to be denied against East Carolina. Despite being a 1.5-point dog (at home), the Panthers led by 25 in the 1st half and won 49-29.

Arkansas State has played four games. They are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Clearly, the Red Wolves’ most impressive performance to date was the win over Kansas State. They went to Manhattan and won 35-31 as a 15-point dog. Give ASU credit for that win, but they’ve also lost by 13 to Memphis and by 29 at Coastal Carolina. In both losses, the defense surrendered 500+ yards. Saturday’s 50-point effort doesn’t “carry much water” with me as it was against a FCS team (Central Arkansas). It was also only five days ago! So this is a very unusual, quick turnaround for the team laying points. 

Georgia State is much more rested coming into this Thursday night game. In its two losses, Arkansas State has surrendered over 200 rush yards. That’s notable with Georgia State having rushed for 480 yards in its two games. So far, the ASU defense ranks LAST among Sun Belt teams, giving up 456.5 yards and 36.8 points per game. Last year, Georgia State put up 52 points and 722 total yards (340 rushing) on this ASU defense. A team that’s led both games by DD, getting points, is a good value against a side that has barely led in any of its games vs. FBS opposition. 10* Georgia State

10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Coastal Carolina is much improved this season as they have averaged a Sun Belt best 44.3 PPG during a 3-0 start. QB Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his pass attempts thus far while averaging a stunning 17.3 yds per completion, has added a passing dimension that the offense clearly lacked last season. But if it feels like the Chanticleers’ offense has overachieved thus far, that’s because it has. Now it’s set to face the Sun Belt’s best defensive and overall team, Louisiana. Look for CC’s offense to be slowed down in this one. 

The key for Coastal Carolina’s offense so far has been leading the country in time of possession (they play at a very slow tempo) and converting at what is an unsustainable rate on third down (6th in the country). Enter the Louisiana defense which was tops in the SBC a year ago and returned eight starters. So far the Ragin Cajuns are giving up less than 21 PPG in regulation and they are very good on third down. Coastal Carolina’s offense lacks explosiveness and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season, so yes, their numbers are set to come down pretty dramatically. 

Both teams are going to look to run the ball Wednesday night, so look for that clock to always be moving. Louisiana’s offense has been disappointing so far as it has averaged just 26.3 PPG in regulation. Since upsetting Iowa State in the opener, the Cajuns were very nearly upset themselves each of the L2 games. Coastal Carolina is also improved on the defensive side of the ball as they have 26 TFL and a Sun Bet-leading 13 sacks. Look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana

8* Clemson (7:30 ET): So this may seem like a lot of points to lay in a matchup between Top 10 teams, especially considering the fact underdog Miami is 3-0 ATS this year while favored Clemson is 0-3 ATS. But Clemson’s ATS mark certainly is in need of some context as the Tigers have had to lay 28 or more in every game thus far. I’ve played against them twice (at Wake Forest and vs Virginia), but now is the time to jump on board as October is typically the time when Dabo Swinney’s team REALLY starts to roll. Lay the points. 

I expect Clemson to be quite motivated for this game. That’s something you probably couldn’t say for any of the first three contests, yet the Tigers still won them all by at least 18 points. The closest margin came last week against Virginia and keep in mind Clemson gave up a late TD to make it seem closer than it actually was. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been asked to lay between 10.5 and 21 points. It is VERY rare to get them this low of a favorite at home. The last time they were -14 or less here was 2017!

Miami is likely feeling quite good about itself with its 3-0 start and QB D’Eriq King playing even better than anticipated. But the Hurricanes have been outscored 92-3 in the L2 meetings w/ Clemson. Since 2015, the Tigers have gone 29-15-1 ATS following the first weekend in October and averaged an awesome 40.2 PPG. Over half of its wins in those games have been by three touchdowns! It’s rare to say a 2 TD favorite is in a “buy low” spot but Clemson has covered six of its last seven in the month of October. 8* Clemson

9* Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Wildcats are 0-2, but there’s been some bad luck along the way + you’re talking about an SEC schedule. They actually outgained Auburn 384-324 in a 29-13 loss, but were -3 in turnovers, the most costly being an INT in the end zone late in the 1st half (totally changed the game). They also outgained Ole Miss last week 559-459, but missed the XP in OT and lost 42-41. That was a game they led by two touchdowns (at home) in the 2nd half. It’s time for UK to break through this week with a win.

The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward. It was an impressive way for Mike Leach to start his tenure in Starkville, but unfortunately (for him) that was followed with an outright loss to Arkansas (as 16.5-point home favorites) last week. That was the Hogs’ first SEC win since 2017 (snapped 20-game losing streak). The answer to “how good the Bulldogs are” probably lies somewhere between those two results. They aren’t as good as they looked vs. LSU nor are they as bad as last week’s result suggests. 

That this number has been bet down tells me that MSU is still getting too much credit for the upset of LSU. I don’t see Leach winning his first two SEC road games as a dog. Kentucky came into 2020 w/ high hopes for Mark Stoops’ 8th season in Lexington. The home team has won five straight in this particular SEC rivalry and covered the spread in the last six. There were some other ridiculous things that went against Kentucky last week (fumbled at goal line two plays after a player should have scored a TD - but was celebrating too early and got tackled!). A Miss State team that’s turned it over four times in both games is the opponent they need to get back on track. 9* Kentucky

8* Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Hilltoppers are 0-3 ATS, but at least they picked up a SU win last week. They won 20-17 at Middle Tennessee and while that was a battle of winless teams, WKU will take it. They’d previously fallen to Louisville and Liberty. I made the mistake of taking the points with them in that Louisville game (they lost by 14 as a 12.5-pt dog) and then Liberty was clearly a team not properly priced by the oddsmakers as they beat WKU outright, 30-24, as 14.5-point dogs. Now that the market has clearly shifted AGAINST the Hilltoppers, I feel that now is the time to back them again (1st time since L’ville game). Take the points. 

Marshall is 2-0 SU/ATS with an upset of Appalachian State under their belt. That upset occurred in their last game, but it was also three weeks ago as the Thundering Herd have since fallen victim to a COVID-19 cancellation (they were supposed to play Rice last weekend). It was the second time this year Marshall has had a game cancelled. I expect “rust” to be a bit of a factor Saturday night in Bowling Green and this Thundering Herd team has often struggled outside of Huntington. 

Prior to the start of the season, I would not have expected Marshall to be favored in this game, let alone by this many points. The Herd are just 2 for its last 9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-13 ATS its L19 as a favorite, period. They are 1-4 ATS L5 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-6 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Meanwhile, WKU is 16-6 ATS its L22 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts and 6-3 ATS L9 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Marshall passing game is still a question mark (QB Grant Wells was just 11 of 25 vs. App State). Despite losing each of the L3 years to Marshall (all by 7 pts or less), WKU is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this C-USA rivalry. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): This spread should be closer to four touchdowns rather than three. In picking this one, it’s that simple for me as I’ll trust my own power rankings. Florida State is a complete mess right now having lost to Georgia Tech (as a 13-point home favorite) and Miami (52-10) and needing to come from behind to defeat FCS Jacksonville State. Because of COVID, Notre Dame has been off the L2 weeks. As a top five team, I expect them to be “ready to go” Saturday night in South Bend. Lay the points. 

This game marks the first time EVER that Florida State has been a double digit dog in back to back games vs. FBS opponents. They were +11.5 at Miami FL, an outrageous line in retrospect, and got totally humiliated in that one. It was 38-3 at halftime. The last five times the Seminoles have been DD dogs, not only have they lost, they’ve lost by an average of almost five touchdowns per game. Just to illustrate how far this one proud program has fallen, it was a DD dog just 10 times (in 497 games) from 1978-2017. This will now be the eighth time they’ve been a DD dog in the L34 games! Needless to say, 1st year HC Mike Norvell has his work cut out for him in Tallahassee. 

FSU was down 21-7 last week at home to Jacksonville State. A change was made at QB and that resulted in five straight TD drives. But that was against an FCS team. Notre Dame has won 20 straight in South Bend including 52-0 over South Florida three weeks ago. QB Ian Book is completing 62% of his passes while RB Williams has 174 yards rushing and WR Tremble has 100+ yds receiving. The ‘Noles are totally outclassed here and I love the fact this number has dipped below -21. 10* Notre Dame

8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): UTEP is quite easily the worst 3-1 (SU) team in the country. Two of their three wins have come against FCS opposition (Stephen F Austin and Abilene Christian) and those wins were by a combined 14 points. The Miners’ most recent victory came at LA Monroe (31-6), who I happen to have ranked dead last among the 77 FBS teams that have played a game this season. UTEP actually came into that game as a 9.5-point underdog! The only other game they played was a 59-3 loss to Texas.

So it’s not a question of “IF” the Miners will lose in Ruston, LA this Saturday night, but by “how many.” Louisiana Tech figures to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by BYU last Friday, 45-14. But, in terms of the opponent, it’s a huge drop in class this week for the Bulldogs, who you may recall I had in their opener as they went to Southern Miss as prevailed 31-30 as a 7.5-point underdog. In between the Southern Miss and BYU games, La Tech beat Houston Baptist 66-38, which is what you “should” do to a FCS opponent. 

With the threat of Hurricane Delta, it’s almost a lock that it will rain during this game. Still, I expect a LA Tech team averaging 37 PPG to have no problems against a foe that had won a combined two games the previous two seasons. Bulldogs QB Luke Anthony is 2nd in the country with 10 TD passes and that’s despite the fact he didn’t even start the opener. Despite facing two FCS opponents, UTEP is still averaging less than 20 PPG! Another thing to watch for is third down. UTEP’s defense has been very lucky on 3rd down thus far while La Tech’s has been just the opposite. The conversion rates both defenses are allowing should start moving closer to the mean and that’s more good news for the favorite. Lay the points. 8* Louisiana Tech

9* Under NC State/Virginia (12:00 ET): These two ACC rivals have combined to play five games so far and all five have gone Over the total. Dating back to last season, each team is on an impressive run of Overs. The Over is 6-1 in NC State’s L7 games (3-0 this season) and it is 8-0 in Virginia’s L8 games (2-0 this season). But UVA’s point totals from the first two games are a little misleading as there has been a lot of “garbage time” scoring for a variety of reasons. I think this game bucks the trend. Take the Under. 

Virginia has scored just 17 points in the first three quarters of both games so far. Against Duke, they were the beneficiaries of SEVEN turnovers. Two of those seven came late in the game and were converted into touchdowns after excellent starting field position (one drive was just 10 yards). Last week vs. Clemson, they got a garbage time TD w/ 1:11 remaining, when trailing 41-17. They also scored right before the end of the first half. Not that I’m complaining mind you, as I had the Hoos +28 (in what was a wire to wire cover).

UVA QB Brennan Armstrong has done much better than I had expected in “replacing” do-everything Bryce Perkins. But I still think the Cavaliers’ scoring output is misleading. While the Hoos have won nine in a row in Charlottesville, I don’t necessarily expect them to roll here. If they do, it may be because of the defense. They’re allowing just 2.8 YPC so far and last week NC State could not run the ball effectively (2.1 YPC) despite upsetting Pitt on the road. This will be the highest O/U line for either team YTD and the L2 times the Under hit for the Wolfpack, the number was 58+ pts. This is the highest O/U line for Virginia in an ACC game in a LONG time. 9* Under NC State/Virginia

10* Louisville (7:00 ET): Both of these teams opened their seasons with a win only to then drop two in a row. But that’s where the similarities end for ACC rivals Louisville and Georgia Tech. The Cardinals, who started the year ranked in the Top 25, played pretty sloppy against two very good teams (Miami and Pitt). Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets were flat out dominated in losses to UCF and Syracuse, the latter of which isn’t anywhere near the caliber of opponent L’ville has seen to this point. I thought this number was too low when it initially opened. Now I see an incredible value in the Cardinals laying a short number on the road. 

Louisville opened its season with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That should have been an even bigger blowout, but WKU got two “gift” drives that began inside the Cardinals’ 5-yard line. I’m not too worried about the losses to Miami and Pitt as Miami is clearly a very good team and then Pitt was just a three-point loss on the road. Cardinals QB Malik Cunnigham struggled against two of the better defenses in the ACC and threw three interceptions against Pitt. But he should bounce back here against a Ga Tech defense that has given up 86 points in its last two games. RB Javian Hawkins is averaging more than 5.0 YPC and WR Tutu Atwell has 229 yards and three TDs. 

Georgia Tech is just in its second year transitioning away from the triple option offense they ran under Paul Johnson. This is a massive rebuild for HC Geoff Collins and while the Yellow Jackets opened this season w/ a 16-13 upset of Florida State, that win doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it did last month. QB Jeff Sims has already thrown 8 INTs and the offense has also been missing last year’s leading rusher, Jordan Mason. Louisville held Pitt under 4.0 YPC two weeks ago. Speaking of defense, after giving up 49 points and 600+ total yds to Central Florida, Ga Tech then allowed 37 pts to a Syracuse team that had scored only 16 pts in its first two games. They’ve covered just 3 of their L13 home games. 10* Louisville

10* Tulane (7:30 ET): It’s not very often that I would say a team getting a full TD on the road is better than it’s opponent, but that looks to be the case here. Tulane has a massive edge over Houston Thursday night in that they’ve already got three games under their belt while this will be the season opener for the home team (five games postponed due to COVID!). The last time we saw the Green Wave was two weeks ago and I had them in a 66-24 beatdown of Southern Miss (were only -3.5). They were obviously undervalued there and such is the case again this week.

Tulane was able to hang 66 on Southern Miss despite a change at QB and losing their starting RB (Tyjae Spears) to an ACL injury. That speaks to the depth of talent they have on that side of the ball. True freshman Michael Pratt came in against USM and accounted for 182 total yards and three touchdowns. Running back, thankfully, is the Green Wave’s deepest position on offense. BOTH backups - Cameron Carroll and Stephon Huderson - went over 100 yards against Southern Miss! Now you might attribute the fact that Tulane had 572 total yards of offense to the fact they were playing a bad team. But note Houston’s defense allowed 34.0 PPG last season as the team went 4-8 SU. 

Tulane should be coming into this game a perfect 3-0 SU, but they blew a 24-0 halftime lead at home and lost to Navy. Still, they’ve won twice on the road already and upset Houston last season 38-31 as a five-point home dog. Off their worst season in over a decade, Houston lost QB D’Eriq King (transferred to Miami) and Clayton Tune (who did start several games LY) is going to have to deal with a Tulane defense that has NFL talent, not to mention 11 sacks and is 3rd among American Conference teams in yards per game allowed. Take the points. 10* Tulane

10* Virginia (8:00 ET): Clemson has won its two games so far by a combined score of 86-13 (37-13 over Wake Forest and 49-0 over The Citadel), yet is actually 0-2 ATS as they faced massive spreads in both contests (-34.5, -50.5). They are once again massive favorites this week as they face a Virginia team they infamously drubbed in LY’s ACC Championship Game, 62-17. It’s not just Clemson, but all favorites of this size have struggled to cover this NCAAF season and UVA proved itself to be formidable enough last week against Duke. Take the points in this one. 

So far, all NCAAF favorites of 28 or more points this season are just 1-5 ATS including the two Clemson non-covers. We faded the Tigers in their first game as they allowed Wake Forest in through the backdoor. The reason Clemson failed to cover last week is that they took their starters out, including QB Trevor Lawrence, in the second quarter. This week is less than an ideal spot though as the Tigers have a huge, potential Top 10 showdown with Miami on deck. Don’t expect them to “open the playbook” too much against a team they easily beat last year. They’ll be saving some stuff for Miami. 

I was impressed with Virginia being able to hang 38 on Duke last week. That was the Cavaliers season opener. While forcing seven turnovers certainly helped, QB Brennan Armstrong (24-45, 269 yards) looked good as did WR Lavel Davis Jr (101 yds). These huge spreads figure to be an issue for Clemson all season (well, maybe not next week). Since it was an unusual offseason and the season is still young, don’t expect the Tigers to operate at peak performance quite yet. Virginia isn’t likely to pull the upset, but will take this game very seriously and keep it close enough to where they easily cover the spread. 10* Virginia

9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe (7:00 ET): These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this year. Furthermore, going back to last season, both are 4-0 Under the L4 games. But this Sun Belt matchup is a bit unique this week in that it feels quite conducive to an Over. Louisiana Monroe’s defense is obviously horrible (35.3 PPG allowed), especially against the run, which is Georgia Southern’s specialty. After dealing with some serious coronavirus issues in the early going, Ga Southern is now as healthy as they’ve been. 

LA Monroe has a legit claim to being the worst team in the entire country right now. The L2 wks have seen them lose to Texas State and UTEP (both of whom are also in that “worst team discussion”) by 21 and 25 points - at home. They also have a 37-7 loss to Army, which is notable because of the similarities between the Army and Ga Southern offenses. The Warhawks are allowing 263 YPG on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry, and they’ve already allowed 11 rushing TDs. Ga Southern has 476 yds on the ground in two games and should move the ball at will tonight. 

While Ga Southern figures to do most of the “heavy lifting” scoring-wise in this contest, we’ll also need La Monroe to score a couple touchdowns as well. They’ve scored just 30 points in three games thus far, but were a stunning 0 for 11 on third down vs. UTEP last week. Fortunately for the Warhawks, the Ga Southern defense is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of third down opportunities. Also QB Colby Suits is completing two-thirds of his pass attempts so far. Look for this to be BOTH teams’ highest-scoring game to date. 9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe

9* Charlotte (4:00 ET): Florida Atlantic has yet to play a game this season as previously scheduled dates with Ga Southern and USF had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. I’ve been itching to play against the Owls here in 2020 as this is a team ripe for regression after LY’s school record 11 wins. Lane Kiffin bolted the program for Ole Miss and his replacement, Willie Taggart, is off a somewhat disastrous stint at Florida State. I don’t like the idea of this team laying points to a conference foe in its season opener. 

Charlotte made a bowl for the 1st time last year and went 7-6 SU for HC Will Healy. Their last two games have also been called off due to COVID, though it turned out Georgia State was a false positive. Unlike FAU, the 49ers have played a game and it was against Appalachian State. Despite being outgained fairly significantly, the 49ers still managed to cover the 17-point spread as they only lost 35-20. I see the offensive attack doing a lot better here as FAU lost its four top tacklers from a season ago. Charlotte does return its starting QB from last season, Chris Reynolds. This is an offense that led C-USA in rushing LY. 

All signs point down for FAU in 2020 as they forced 33 takeaways last year (most in the country), which is a number they can’t possibly repeat and they lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Since these teams became conference rivals, the road team is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS. I had FAU last year as they won 45-27 (as 1.5-point underdogs!) but this is a far less talented team this year. Charlotte QB Reynolds actually got hurt in the opener, but all the time off allowed him to heal and now he’s expected to start. Take the points! 9* Charlotte

8* Texas A&M (3:30 ET): This is a lot of points to be getting in a matchup of what (we were told) would be the top two teams in the SEC West this season. Obviously Alabama is #1. Texas A&M, expected to be this year’s top challenger, had a shaky first game vs. Vanderbilt. The Aggies could only manage a 17-12 win as 31.5-point home favorites. But it’s a much different pointspread this week and “the great equalizer” got Bama last week as they got backdoored by Missouri. I expect A&M to “show up” big time here.

I think the Aggies’ closer than expected call last week can be attributed to numerous factors. One, it was the first game of the season. Two, there was an obvious “look ahead” to this game. Three, A&M fumbled five times and lost three. Despite the game being “too close for comfort,” the Aggies never trailed and the defense did its job. Also, RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 117 yards on just eight attempts. Everyone is seemingly counting them out this week, but that seems like an overreaction based on the preseason ranking. 

A&M is an experienced team with 17 starters back from LY including QB Kellen Mond, who did have a subpar game last week. I expect him to play a lot better here, even though he’s up against the #2 team in the country. This is a game they’ve been pointing to in College Station all throughout the summer and I can’t see Jimbo Fisher’s team getting blown out. Alabama is just 3-7 ATS its L10 SEC games while Texas A&M has covered 10 of 12 after allowing 20 pts or less in their previous game. 8* Texas A&M

10* Under La Tech/BYU (9:00 ET): It’s only two games in, but BYU has blown past the oddsmakers’ expectations thus far. The Cougars, now ranked #22 in the country, have beaten Navy 55-3 (were -1) and Troy 48-7 (were -14.5). In two games they've exceeded the pointspread by 77 points. Since 1978, no team has exceeded the pointspread by more than 85 points in the first three games. Predictably, BYU now finds itself a big favorite for Week 3 as they welcome fellow unbeaten Louisiana Tech to Provo.

Louisiana Tech was a nice winner for us two weeks ago. In their season opener, the Bulldogs went to Hattiesburg and upset favored Southern Miss 31-30 w/ a last minute TD. It was far easier last week against FCS Houston Baptist, whom they defeated 66-38 while rolling up 542 total yards, including 182 on the ground. But it won’t be that easy to move the ball this week. BYU has allowed only 10 points this season and an average of just 165 YPG. Don’t look for the team from Ruston to top 30 points in this one.

Now La Tech slowing down this BYU offense may be more of a challenge. Brigham Young has gone over 600 yards in both games and has scored over 100 points! But that sort of production simply can’t continue. BYU had 19 days off between the Navy and Troy games, so let’s see how they perform on a short week for the 1st time. This O/U line has moved considerably and while both La Tech games so far have gone Over, the Under is 10-3 the Bulldogs L13 road games. The Under is 20-8 in BYU’s L28 Friday games. 10* Under La Tech/BYU

8* Troy (10:15 ET): Finally, a chance to win late night on College Football Saturday! Both Troy and BYU enter this second game of the season off blowout victories. BYU’s came all the way back on September 7th when they humiliated Navy 55-3 in Annapolis. Troy also went on the road for its opener and they came away with a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. That one made me happy as I laid the modest spread with the Trojans. Now that they’re underdogs here, by two touchdowns, I like them even more!

The fact BYU has been off for 19 days is a disadvantage in my book. The reason for the long layoff should be obvious as the Cougars were yet another team dealing with COVID-19. As many as 10 players tested positive while 22 had to go into quarantine. This obviously creates an issue for practicing as some had to be cancelled while others saw players broken up into small groups of 10.  As impressive as the win over Navy was, BYU can’t possibly duplicate that kind of performance under the current circumstances. Another bad sign is the fact BYU is just 1-7 ATS the last eight times it has been favored. 

Troy looked even better than expected against Middle Tennessee, doubling the opposition in total yardage. As noted in last week’s analysis, the Trojans were a lot better LY than their 5-7 SU record would seem to indicate. All five wins were by at least three touchdowns while three of the seven losses were one-score games. The only teams they struggled against were Missouri (SEC team) and then the two that played for the SBC Title (App State, Louisiana). QB Gunnar Watson has his top SEVEN pass catchers back from 2019 and this offense was actually 18th in the country at 458 YPG last season. 8* Troy

9* Baylor (7:30 ET): The previous two years saw Baylor improve it’s win total from 1 to 7 to 11. That was a remarkable coaching effort from Matt Rhule, which is why he’s now in the NFL The Dave Aranda era is now set to begin in Waco and the former Wisconsin & LSU defensive coordinator inherits a squad that virtually everyone believes will regress in 2020. Fortunately for Aranda, he’s opening up against Kansas, the bottom-feeder of the Big 12 that just lost at home to Coastal Carolina (by 15 pts!) two weeks ago. 

Baylor has beaten Kansas 10 straight times, averaging 576.7 YPG in the process. Last year, it was 61-6 in Lawrence and Bears were “only” a 14-point favorite in that one, if you can believe it. While there are a lot of unknowns right now with this team, what we do know is that Kansas remains very bad. The Jayhawks were -3 in turnovers vs. Coastal Carolina, but what you really need to know is they were down 28-0 (at home) in the final minute of the first half! Over the L10 years, KU is just 6-83 SU in conference play, never winning more than one game in any season. 

This is Baylor’s third attempt at starting their season. COVID-19 has gotten in the way both times so far, but Aranda said four days ago that those issues were behind the team. The Bears really could not have asked for a better opponent. Maybe it’s the fact they’ve had to postpone twice, or the unknown factor of a new coaching staff, but this line opened WAY too low IMO. That it’s actually been bet DOWN is pure lunacy as Kansas isn’t going to win a conference game all season. 9* Baylor

8* Duke (4:00 ET): The Blue Devils are 0-2, but that’s actually quite understandable. They opened the season at Notre Dame, whom they played tough in a 27-13 loss (was 17-13 heading into the 4Q). Last week’s 26-6 home loss to Boston College looks bad, and I was certainly glad it happened (as I had B.C.), but that result can directly be attributed to the fact Duke turned the ball over FIVE times. Total yardage was basically even. Four of the five turnovers took place in the red zone where the Blue Devils have now scored just one TD in seven trips this season!

Having not played a game yet, Virginia is a bit of an “unknown” coming into this afternoon. But what we do know is they’ll definitely miss QB Bryce Perkins, who graduated and was essentially the Hoos’ entire offense last season. You have to think that UVA is at a severe disadvantage here facing a team that’s already played twice, even if the game is at home and they are 5-0 SU/ATS the L5 seasons vs. the Blue Devils.

That recent head to head record and what has transpired the L2 wks will certainly have Duke motivated this week. Under HC David Cutcliffe, this team has been tremendous as an underdog, going 11-5 ATS L16 tries. All those turnovers last week couldn’t have happened at a worse time as they turned what could have been a SU win into a 20-point loss. The defensive front has looked good in both games against superior O-lines than what they’ll see here. 8* Duke

10* Texas (3:30 ET): While they were ultimately victorious, Texas Tech’s performance in the season opener could hardly be called “good.” They gave up 600 yards to Houston Baptist, which is a FCS school and not a very good one at that. Even more frightening is that the Red Raiders needed to prevent a 2-pt conversion w/ 3:23 left to hold on for the 35-33 victory. Now, the Lubbock faithful will point to the fact that over a dozen players missed the game due to COVID-19. Still, I don’t think that excuses the poor performance. 

There was nothing poor about the way Texas opened its season. In what HC Tom Herman called a “scrimmage,” the Longhorns blasted UTEP 59-3 as a 45-point favorite. QB Sam Ehlinger threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns -- in the first half! Texas, now ranked 8th in the country, had nearly 700 yards of total offense and didn’t even try in the second half. You can imagine how they have to be licking their chops going against a defense that just gave up 600 yards to a FCS school. Texas is already 8-2 ATS the L10 meetings vs. TT. 

Last year’s matchup in Austin saw the Horns win 49-24 as a nine-point favorite. They are an even stronger team in 2020, thus it’s not surprising to see the line significantly higher even though this game is being played on the road. The last two times they’ve played, Texas has scored a total of 90 points on Texas Tech. I’ve got this line right around 24 points, so even after the line move we’re still getting plenty of value. This is a really good team that should be able to “name the score” Saturday afternoon. 10* Texas

8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): I’m proud to say I was a little “ahead of the curve” when it came to fading Oklahoma State, having already done so last week when they could barely beat Tulsa. Now losing QB Spencer Sanders to injury early on didn’t help. But the fact the Pokes needed to outscore the Golden Hurricane 13-0 in the 4Q last week, just to get a SU win, doesn’t bode well as they are set to begin conference play. Sanders could return here, despite being in a walking boot earlier this week, but clearly wouldn’t be at full strength. 

With the Sanders injury, WVU has to smell “blood in the water.” The Mountaineers were 56-10 winners in their opener (vs. FCS Eastern Kentucky) and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. It’s a matchup they’ve likely had “circled” in Morgantown for awhile. Including LY’s 20-13 loss, WVU has lost five in a row to the Cowboys, also going 0-4-1 ATS. But three of those losses were by seven points or less. The Mountaineers are undeniably better in HC Neal Brown’s 2nd season.

Oklahoma State won last week because its defense was able to limit Tulsa to 278 total yards and 0 for 12 on third down. As you might suspect, WVU has a much more prolific offense than Tulsa. Keep in mind that Tulsa was dealing with several key absences last week themselves, most notably at the RB position. The fact OSU has four new starters on the offensive line this year is a big deal. WVU’s defensive front should be able to take full advantage of that. Big statement game for the underdog. 8* West Virginia

8* Tulane (2:30 ET): Two games in and it would be fair to say Tulane’s season has been defined by “comebacks.” One went their way, a 27-24 win over South Alabama in the opener where the Green Wave battled back from an early 24-6 deficit. But then last week saw them lose by the same 27-24 score to Navy after blowing their own 24-0 lead. There’s basically two ways this next game can go for Willie Fritz’s team: either there’s a hangover or they come out extra motivated. I’m betting on the latter. 

Southern Mississippi’s season also started in Mobile against South Alabama. Only they lost outright, as a 12-point favorite, 32-21. Following that loss, (now former) HC Jay Hopson abruptly resigned! Talk about an auspicious way to start your season! Co-OC Scott Walden is now the interim coach in Hattiesburg and I told you that he was stepping into a near-impossible situation vs. Louisiana Tech. Somehow, the Golden Eagles were still favored to win, so I faded and sure enough La Tech pulled the outright upset with the go-ahead TD in the final minute.

Oddsmakers have at least “learned their lesson” w/ USM this week by not favoring them. But still, this line ought to be closer to a full TD. Having started 0-2 and unexpectedly losing their HC, the Golden Eagles remain in a very fragile position. While this is USM’s third straight home game and Tulane hasn’t been that great on the road, note South Alabama came here and won when they hadn’t previously beaten a FBS team on the road since 2017! Tulane also holds a convincing 30-13 win over Southern Miss in LY’s Armed Forces Bowl.  8* Tulane

8* TCU (1:30 ET): TCU’s season was supposed to begin on September 11th against SMU, but that had to be scrapped because of positive coronavirus tests. Instead, they’ll now open the season with a game against Big XII rival Iowa State. This is a big revenge spot for the Horned Frogs, who lost 49-24 in Ames last season. That was with ISU getting a big game from its QB Brock Purdy and TCU being in the midst of a down season. The Horned Frogs project to be a lot better this year and now the game is in Fort Worth. 

Iowa State already played a game and it didn’t go as planned. Coming in as the #23 ranked team in the country, they lost at home to Louisiana (who is now #19 in the country), 31-14 as 13-pt favorites. It’s not that the Cyclones were beaten that badly ‘in the boxscore.’ (They actually outgained LA 303-272). But two turnovers really hurt and Purdy had a shockingly poor game with just 180 total yards (35 rushing). He completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. ISU is now 0-5-1 ATS its L6 games as a favorite.

TCU was just 5-7 SU last season and lost six of its final eight games. It was their worst season (record-wise) since 2013 (went 4-8 SU). They bounced back the next year to go 12-1 SU! HC Gary Patterson typically does a very good job and while he’s got a bit of a question mark at QB right now (both Downing and Duggan expected to play), he’s got a defense that should certainly overwhelm the ISU receivers like Louisiana did (if not more so!). TCU has not lost at home to Iowa State since 2012. Take the points. 8* TCU

10* Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So much for being improved! Middle Tennessee has been a disaster in the early going, getting outscored 89-14 in lopsided losses to Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14). Despite the fact I faded the Blue Raiders in that loss to Troy last week, it was shocking to see how poorly they played. Three turnovers (following four more vs. Army) and QB Asher O’Hara (3,600 total yds & 29 TDs LY) was actually benched. But as bad as things have been thus far in Murfreesboro, I can’t believe MTSU is getting this many points against UTSA.

This is the most unique C-USA opener in history. Originally, UTSA was going to face Memphis. But the Tigers had to bow out due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That left an open spot on the schedule and MTSU stepped in. This change was made just last week, giving both sides very little time to prepare for an opponent they are not that familiar with, despite being conference rivals. There have been only two all-time meetings, the most recent taking place in 2016. The fact MTSU HC Rick Stockstill is being coy about his QB situation puts UTSA in a tough spot, especially laying points.

UTSA might be 2-0, but they’ve beaten a terrible Texas State team (in double overtime) and then SF Austin (a FCS school). As bad as MTSU has looked through two games, they are still the toughest opponent UTSA has faced so far. The Blue Raiders are also desperate, which has me grabbing the points. UTSA infamously almost gave away a 31-14 lead to Texas State in the opener. I had them as they were getting 6.5 points. But now they are favored in a FBS game for just the 1st time since 2018. They are 0-4-1 ATS L5 as a favorite (vs. FBS) and are just 4-13-1 ATS L18 home games. 10* Middle Tennessee

10* UAB (7:30 ET): These teams are no strangers to playing on Thursday night. South Alabama opened its season on a Thursday with a 32-21 upset over Southern Miss as 12-point underdogs (Southern Miss’ coach then resigned). A week later, it was UAB’s turn to play on a Thursday and they lost 31-14 down in Miami. Considering who the opponent was, the Blazers need not hang their heads in shame over that result. While they are 0-2 ATS (also failed to cover in a win over Central Arkansas) and South Alabama is 2-0 ATS (almost upset Tulane in Week 2), this matchup favors the road team and I’ll lay the points in this one.

The last 3+ seasons have seen UAB win a total of 28 games and make B2B C-USA Title Game appearances. Keep in mind the program ceased to exist for the two years prior! HC Bill Clark has done a remarkable job here, considering that circumstance, and has one of the most experienced teams in the country in 2020. The 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. The Miami loss was simply a case of running into a better football team.

South Alabama is the kind of opponent UAB typically feasts on. The Jaguars won only TWO games LY. UAB is 4-1 ATS off a bye week as well as 18-3 SU (14-7 ATS) its L21 games as a favorite. They’ve also covered five of six against Sun Belt teams. While UAB did lose starting QB Tyler Johnston III to an injury (non-throwing shoulder), thankfully backup Bryson Lucero has seen action in both games thus far and is actually averaging more yards per attempt than Johnston was. South Alabama’s passing game - also using 2 different QB’s - has been effective thus far. But the UAB defense has yet to allow a 200+ yd passing day this season. South Alabama struggles to run the ball (3.4 YPC) and that will cost them here. 10* UAB

10* Under Miami/Louisville (7:30 ET): The season’s 1st matchup of ranked teams takes place in Louisville where the #18 ranked Cardinals host #17 ranked Miami. As was made fairly clear w/ last week’s fade on L’ville, I’m not as high on Scott Satterfield’s team as the market seems to be. But at the same time, it’s hard for me to trust Miami in this spot as they are just 3-23 SU in their L26 away games vs. ranked opponents. But what I do trust are the respective defenses and the fact this O/U line has been bet too high. Take the Under. 

Miami & Louisville combined for “only” 66 points last week. I say “only” because each was facing a C-USA defense. Miami beat a good UAB team 31-14 while Louisville won 35-21 over Western Kentucky. While Miami’s game did stay Under, L’ville’s did not. But L’ville would have stayed Under had it not been for them giving WKU the ball inside the 5-yard line to start BOTH halves. Take those “drives” away and the Louisville defense allowed just 7 points on a TD that came near the end of the game. They allowed only 248 total yards as well and had 10 tackles for loss, plus three sacks.

There have been 65+ points scored in only TWO of Miami’s last 23 games. One of them was against Louisville last year, a 52-27 whipping down in Coral Gables that isn’t about to be repeated as this one is one the road. Even though the ‘Canes’ QB situation has received a major upgrade this season, D’Eriq King threw for just 144 yds last week vs. UAB.. At the same time, Miami’s defense is a lot better than what Louisville faced last week. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times “The U” has been a road underdog. 10* Under Miami/Louisville

8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Southern Miss’ opening week loss to South Alabama was considered so bad that HC Jay Hopson ended up resigning! While Hopson openly clashed with the university president over a variety of issues during his tenure, the 32-21 loss to start the season was apparently the straw that broke the camel’s back. Consider that the Golden Eagles were 12-point favorites in that game and South Alabama hadn’t won on the road since 2017. I’m a little shocked that USM opened as the favorite this week, let alone has been bet up! 

The new man in charge in Hattiesburg is Scotty Walden, who is only 30 years old and served as the co-OC under Hopson. While Walden is considered a bright young offensive mind, this is hardly the way one would hope to make their head coaching debut at the FBS level. It’s not like Southern Miss has been a bad team (they had 4 straight winning seasons under Hopson), but a bad home loss to a team like South Alabama followed by a coaching change this early in the season is ominous.

Louisiana Tech has yet to take the field in 2020, but given all the turmoil their opponent has already endured, I don’t think the Bulldogs are at any sort of disadvantage here. Skip Holtz led this team to 10 wins last season and with the state of the USM program, right now the C-USA West Division is really up for grabs. While only eight starters are back in Ruston, Southern Miss looked VERY weak in the trenches against South Alabama. After losing to the Golden Eagles in OT back in 2017, then by one point in 2018, it was all LT LY in Ruston, 45-30. Don’t think for a second Holtz isn’t motivated by the idea of beating USM B2B years for the 1st time since 2013-14. Take the points. 8* Louisiana Tech

8* North Texas (6:00 ET): SMU failed to cover in its opener two weeks ago at Texas State. The Mustangs managed to win by only a 31-24 margin and were favored by 24.5 points. I was more than happy with that result having taken the Under, which cashed with PLENTY of room to spare. Now for the second straight time the Ponies hit the road, albeit this time for an even shorter in-state trip as they will stay within the Metroplex to face North Texas, who crushed its first opponents - FCS Houston Baptist by a score of 57-31. 

Though the win came over a lesser opponent, North Texas should be proud of how they played in the opener. The offense rolled up a school record 721 total yards and 11 different receivers caught a pass. They ran 86 plays! Getting this game in Denton is huge for the Mean Green, not only because they’ve lost 10 straight times away from Apogee Stadium, but also due to the fact the home team is on an 6-1 SU run in this rivalry (nicknamed “The Safeway Bowl.”) UNT has legit revenge for a 22-point loss in Dallas LY. 

SMU has already proven itself unworthy of laying a lot of points on the road. Facing a tougher test this week, I expect them to once again struggle to grind out a SU win. In my analysis of the Texas State game, I mentioned that - even w/ QB Buechele back -  you should look for SMU’s scoring average to DROP from LY’s 41.8. That’s because the top two running backs both graduated. The Mustangs have failed to cover five straight road games, so laying double digits is clearly a BAD idea here. Take the points. 8* North Texas

8* Troy (4:00 ET): Middle Tennessee was humiliated in its opener two weeks ago, losing to Army 42-0. While four turnovers certainly didn’t help, it was clear from the outset that the Blue Raiders were outclassed up in West Point as they found themselves outgained 368-184 for the game. For a MTSU team that fancies itself as “improved” coming into 2020, that was obviously NOT the way it wanted to start the season. Things get no easier this week with a visit from Troy, who is also looking to improve after a disappointing season. 

Troy had won 10 or more games three straight years going into 2019. But Neal Brown left for WVU and Chip Lindsey’s first year on the job didn’t go as well as he’d hoped. The Trojans finished 5-7 SU, their first losing season since 2015. Interesting though is that all five wins LY came by 21 or more points. Three of the seven losses came in one score games while three others were to either Missouri or teams that played for the Sun Belt Championship (App State and Louisiana). I say that if you’re looking for either Middle Tenn or Troy to improve this year, look more so to the latter. 

These programs have not met in the eight years since MTSU left the Sun Belt. They’ll meet twice this season though, a result of the reality we are currently living in. I look for Troy’s offense to have a big day, led by soph QB Gunnar Watson, who has his SEVEN top pass catchers back from a year ago. While MTSU struggled to defend the run last week, it’s not like they are likely to do any better against the pass w/ just three starters back from a year ago. Troy’s offense averaged 458 YPG last year, which was 18th best in the country! The Trojans are 9-3 ATS their L12 games as a road favorite. 8* Troy

10* Boston College (12:00 ET): Duke certainly made a decent accounting of itself last weekend in South Bend. Coming in as a three TD underdog, the Blue Devils only lost by 14 to Notre Dame and it was even closer entering the 4Q when they were down just four. While a noble effort, I’m not sure that I’m willing to call Duke “underrated” at this point. In fact, it might be quite the opposite as ND might simply be “overrated” as are the Blue Devils this week as they are laying too many points here to Boston College.

The primary issue for Duke this week is going from the “hunter” to the “hunted.” While very good as an underdog under HC David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils’ record as a favorite is shaky. They’ve covered just 4 of the last 14 chances laying points and have lost outright six of the last nine. Preparation is another issue this week as BC has a 1st year HC and QB. Note that while the Blue Devils did hang tough with Notre Dame last week, they were still outgained 441-332 and averaged just 2.4 yards per rush. 

While Duke is coming off a high-profile loss, Boston College has had its full attention on its season opener. This is the latest any BC season has begun since 1981. The Blue Devils were NOT an originally scheduled opponent, but plans obviously had to be changed this year. Jeff Hafley takes over in Chestnut Hill, replacing Steve Addazio, who did not leave the cupboard bare. The Eagles have a stellar offensive line (maybe the ACC’s best?) and QB Phil Jurkovec (a transfer from Notre Dame) seems ready to seize the reins. Keep this in mind: BC is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog, including 7-1 when getting between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* Boston College

8* Tulsa (12:00 ET): Oklahoma State comes into 2020 with plenty of fanfare as the Pokes are ranked #11 in the country. Originally set for last week, this game w/ Tulsa had to be pushed back to COVID-19 concerns on the Golden Hurricane’s end. But OSU still had to enjoy its Saturday as a number of their Big 12 rivals (such as Iowa State) lost to unranked foes. Of course, that’s precisely the situation the Cowboys find themselves in and I think this is too many points to lay to a motivated, in-state rival. 

Tulsa won only 4 games LY, but was more competitive than that record suggests. They actually outgained their AAC foes (by 45 YPG) despite going only 2-6 SU in conference play. They had two players chosen in the NFL Draft, so there was some talent. There still is, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The L3 years have seen the Golden Hurricane held under 30 PPG, but with nine starters back for 2020, we could very well see them get back to the heights of 2015-16 (HC Montgomery’s first two years here) when they averaged a healthy 39.9 PPG. They have a senior QB in Zach Smith and a LOADED backfield as well. 

Of course, OK State has its own offensive firepower that will be on display. But with this being the ONLY non-conference game on the schedule, I don’t see the Cowboys being particularly motivated. They did beat Tulsa 40-21 last season (on the road), but that margin won’t cut it this time and the Golden Hurricane are a much stronger team this year as they head into Stillwater on Saturday. Though #11/#12 in the AP/Coaches Poll, OSU is just 17th in SP+ and I have Tulsa ranked even higher than their SP+ rating. 8* Tulsa

10* Western Kentucky (8:00 ET): HC Scott Satterfield sort of walked into a great situation LY at Louisville. The Cardinals had won just 2 games the year prior, so the bar was low and it wouldn’t take much to improve. That said, Satterfield did a marvelous job as L’ville improved its win total by more than any other P5 team in the country (+6) and capped things off with a 38-28 win over Miss State in the Music City Bowl. But now come the weight of expectations and the Cardinals are opening the season as a DD favorite. 

The Cards were DD favorites just one time vs a FBS foe last season and it happened to be against the team they’ll face here, Western Kentucky. Despite losing that game 38-21, the Hilltoppers saw their own 6-game improvement in 2019, going from 3-9 SU to 9-4. They enter this season as one of the favorites to win C-USA’s East Division. I don’t see them getting much respect for this game though and think that’s a mistake. The Hilltoppers were a perfect 4-0 ATS as road dogs last season. 

There is a lot of fanfare over L’ville QB Micale Cunningham, who is a dual threat that should put up big numbers this season. But don’t look past this WKU offense. They return a veteran O-line and a stud RB in Gaej Walker. Plus, they are adding a grad transfer from Maryland, QB Tyrrell Pigrome, who is a dual threat himself. Look for Pigrome to become a better passer in this offense. His first game being against a defense that gave up 33 PPG and was 112th in YPP a year ago should help. Pigrome was Maryland’s QB in a 51-41 season opening upset of Texas a few years back. 10* Western Kentucky

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has become NCAAF “royalty,” winning two National Championships and 69 games in the L5 seasons. They’d won 29 straight before losing in LY’s National Title Game to LSU. The Tigers are again absolutely loaded entering 2020 as they have QB Trevor Lawrence back and figure to be DD favorites in every game with the exception of a trip to Notre Dame. But while they had no problem covering DD spreads last year (11-3 ATS in that role), I think this year could be a bit different. 

Wake Forest always seems to overachieve for HC Dave Clawson and last season was no different as the Demon Deacons won eight games on their way to the Pinstripe Bowl. They’ve now had a winning record each of the last four seasons. However, like most of the ACC, they’ve struggled against Clemson. The last two years have seen WF lose to the Tigers by a combined score of 115-6. It was 52-3 LY in Death Valley. Overall, it’s an 11-game losing streak to the Tigers. 

There will be no fans present Saturday night in Winston-Salem, but I still feel the number is too high for a season opener, even if it is Clemson with this much returning firepower. Wake Forest has a lot to replace on offense, but their defense is expected to be good with eight starters and the kicking game is sound as well. Wake Forest has virtually no shot at winning this game, but I like them getting the boatload of points in this most unusual of season openers. 8* Wake Forest

10* UTSA (3:30 ET): Texas State already has a game under its belt and while it was a loss, things really went better than anticipated against heavily favored SMU. The Bobcats “only” lost 31-24, easily covering as 24.5-point home dogs. The game also stayed well Under the 71.5-point total, which I enjoyed as I had the Under. Despite the Under, Texas State still put up over 400 yds of total offense and averaged over 5.0 YPC on the ground. QB Brady McBride completed 21 of 39 pass attempts for 229 yards and 2 TDs. It was a really competitive game against a much better team. 

UTSA is dealing with some attrition entering the season opener. Eight players are going to miss this game due to COVID-19, which makes things tough for a new coach staff. But I still expect Jeff Traylor’s offense to move the ball in this one. Texas State gave up 544 yards last week to SMU and the Roadrunners have a RB in Sincere McCormick, who sent numerous school records as a freshman last season, including an 189-yd effort vs. UTEP. Traylor’s offenses always seem to feature a productive RB, so expect a big sophomore season from McCormick. Last year, the UTSA defense led C-USA in tackles for loss.

In its last 26 games, Texas State has beaten just ONE FBS opponent by more than a touchdown. So while UTSA is dealing with the COVID issue, I believe they’ll at least hang tough. In fact, before factoring in homefield advantage, I’ve got the Roadrunners higher in my power ratings than Texas State. So being able to grab this many points seems like a luxury. Texas State is just 3-8 ATS its last 11 home games and was favored by a TD or more just once in that span. It was LY vs. South Alabama and they only 30-28. Take the points. 10* UTSA

8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): So Arkansas State already has a game under its belt and it was a 37-24 loss at Memphis. Though the Red Wolves left with the cash (as 18.5-point dogs), they were probably left kicking themselves for not playing a tighter game. Three turnovers were the undoing, although the defense giving up 500+ total yards was going to make it hard to pull the outright upset. Kansas State might not be Memphis, but they are a P5 team that’s had extra time to prepare and offer a widely different look than Memphis. 

Kansas State was a solid team for Chris Klieman last season. Klieman was in a tough spot replacing a legend in Bill Snyder, but his first season in Manhattan produced eight wins including an upset of Oklahoma. While the Wildcats must replace four O-lineman in 2020, the defense and special teams are solid and QB Skylar Thompson is back for his senior season. Thompson accounted for 23 TDs last season, 11 of which came on the ground. This game should allow for him to “pad” his passing numbers as last week, Memphis’ QB Brady White completed 72% of his passes. 

This is a tough spot for ASU, who is going on the road for a second week in a row to face a marquee opponent. Their QB situation is not yet settled (played 2 last week) and Kansas State has a much better defense than Memphis. While it may look like a lot of points, Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS L11 as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. Time of possession will be key here as LY saw K-State rank ninth in that department while ASU was 113th. Even before factoring in a minimal homefield advantage (there will be fans), I thought this number was simply too low. Lay the points. 8* Kansas State

8* UAB (8:00 ET): I think we all need to take a moment and appreciate the job HC Bill Clark has done with UAB football. This program actually ceased to exist for two seasons (2015-16) due to the university’s financial situation. But in the three years since its return, the Blazers have won 27 games and appeared in the last two C-USA Title Games, even winning the 2018 version. They were one of the most inexperienced teams in the entire country LY, but are now one of the MOST experienced in 2020 w/ 18 starters back.

Miami is in many ways the opposite of UAB. They are considered a College Football “institution.” Yet the Hurricanes have just ONE bowl win since 2006 and posted a losing record last season at 6-7 SU. Yet the ‘Canes got the coveted “Most Improved Team in the Country” moniker from Phil Steele in his publication, largely due to QB D’Eriq King transferring in from Houston. That kind of attention often leads to a team being overvalued early on in the season and that’s precisely the case here for “The U” in Thursday’s opener.

For the record, I agree with Steele that Miami is going to be improved this year. But they had just TWO double digit victories last season, both over non-bowl teams, so I find it hard to believe they’re going to be able to come out and dominate a team like UAB that has experience and won 9 games a year ago. This has been a weird offseason to say the least and Miami could have some growing pains integrating its key transfers. Not only is UAB experienced, they did get six spring practices in and have a game already under their belt. Last week’s 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. Miami is just 7-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons w/ 12 outright losses! 8* UAB

10* Navy (8:00 ET): 2019 saw Navy make the jump from 3-10 to 11-2 straight up. Not only that, but the Midshipmen were also one of the best bets in the country at 10-3 ATS. Last season’s bounce back in Annapolis was largely inevitable as the 3-10 SU record in 2018 was the worst in any season under HC Ken Niaumatalolo. Regression this year is every bit as inevitable, but look for the Middies to still win a bunch of games. This game w/ BYU is a lot better matchup than the originally scheduled opener, which was Notre Dame in Ireland. 

BYU was supposed to open its season against “Holy War” rival Utah. But with the Pac 12 cancelling its season (for now), the Cougars head across the country instead. BYU had its own “down” year in 2018, winning just 4 games. But they’ve since gone 7-6 SU two straight seasons. Three of the wins last year were by a field goal. A major issue that they are dealing with right now is the injury to TE Matt Bushman. His season ending Achilles injury means BYU will be without last year’s four top receivers. 

Another issue I see for BYU in this game is that their defense was very susceptible to the run a year ago. They gave up 168 YPG over land, the most ever under HC Sitake. As we all know, few teams in the country are as adept as the Naval Academy is when it comes to running the football. They put up 361 YPG rushing LY at 6.1 YPC. This line has “jumped the fence” (meaning BYU now favored), but wherever it ends up, the fact BYU is 1-4 SU/ATS its L5 games where the line is a FG or less and Navy is 4-1 SU/ATS will apply. Navy won all six home games last season, doing so by an average of more than 20 PPG. My own power ratings suggest they should be about a 7-pt favorite here and that’s w/o factoring in much of a home field advantage. 10* Navy

*10* Under SMU/Texas State (4:30 ET): When these teams met last year in Dallas, the game just snuck Over the 63-point total as SMU won 47-17 and easily covered the 17-point spread. That was the third game of the season and SMU had a HUGE edge in total yards (639-242), so it was total domination. The second half of this “home and home” series takes place in San Marcos and is SMU’s first ever visit here. While it’s likely to result in another lopsided win for the Mustangs, I feel this game could be a lot lower-scoring.

The 47-17 win by SMU last year was really emblematic of how the two teams’ respective seasons went. SMU would go on to win 10 games and make the Boca Raton Bowl (where they were thrashed 52-28 by Florida Atlantic in a de facto road game). Texas State was just 3-9 SU in 2019, their fifth consecutive season with three or fewer wins. There are some key metrics that indicate the Bobcats will be improved this year, but they’re still not a great team by any means. They averaged only 18.4 PPG last season, the fourth straight year below 20 PPG.

SMU’s points per game average jumped all the way to 41.8 in 2019. I expect that number will come down even with QB Shane Buechele returning. The top two running backs from LY both graduated. I do not see the same regression taking hold on the defensive side of the ball, however. Quietly, the Mustangs led the entire country in sacks in 2019! Obviously Texas State isn’t going to score many points here and I think SMU won’t match LY’s number (47) against the Bobcats. Take the Under. 10* Under SMU/Texas State

10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss (9:00 ET): Perhaps the strangest College Football season EVER (at least in my lifetime) officially gets underway Thursday with the first matchup of FBS teams. Though the schools are separated by just 100 miles, this will actually be the first ever meeting between South Alabama and Southern Miss. The former wasn’t very good last year (finished 2-10 SU) nor were they very good the year before (3-9 SU) for HC Steve Campbell, who enters his third season at the helm. Southern Miss is coming off a 7-win season, which ended with a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl.

South Alabama’s offense was pretty pitiful for most of last season. At one point, there was a six-game stretch (all losses) where they failed to score more than 17 points. All six of those games also happened to stay Under the total. But over the final four games, something flipped as Desmond Trotter took over their starting reigns at QB. With Trotter under center, the Over was 3-1 and the Jaguars scored 27+ pts three different times. Their season even ended with a huge outright win over Arkansas State, 34-30, as 10.5-point underdogs. I expect the USA offense to “take a leap” in 2020 and it helps that Trotter will have his top two WR back. 

Southern Miss averaged 26.6 points per game a year ago, which doesn’t sound all that bad, but consider that the Golden Eagles also averaged a very healthy 6.1 yards per play. Turnovers at inopportune times as well as red zone inefficiencies definitely hurt them. Those things tend to “even out” from year to year, so I’m expecting USM’s PPG average to also go up in 2020. QB Jack Abraham led all of Conference USA w/ 15 completions of 40+ yards on his way to a near 3500 yard season last year. He’s also completed 70% of his passes in the L2 seasons. South Alabama has given up 30+ PPG both seasons under Campbell and has to replace virtually all of LY’s defensive front. 10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss

10* Clemson (8:00 ET): Not prejudiced at all by what happened with my Bowl Game of the Year on Ohio State, which lost despite the Buckeyes outgaining Clemson 516-417. If anything, I GAINED more respect for the Tigers, who have now won 29 straight games and are 6-2 SU all-time in the CFP. This program is now set to appear in the Championship Game for the 4th time in 5 seasons and is seeking its 3rd title in the last 4 seasons. Looking back to last year’s Title Game, I now feel like a bit of a “broken record” as I can’t believe I’m getting so many points with a team that has this kind of resume. Clemson can win this game. Take the points.

LSU obviously had no difficulty in the Peach Bowl, annihilating Oklahoma by a score of 63-28. QB Burrow threw for SEVEN TD passes in the 1H alone as the game was never in doubt. But it must be pointed out that there was a severe dropoff between the top three teams in CFP and Oklahoma. No one expected the Sooners to win once, let alone twice. Meanwhile, Clemson just beat the team many (myself included) considered the best team in the country most of this year. 

The big reason I faded Clemson in the Orange Bowl was I did not believe they should have been the favorite. But now they’re an underdog and I see plenty of value. Going back to the 2015 Title Game, Clemson has been a dog just six times. They are 5-1 ATS with four outright wins. All but one of those games were in the CFP. Those who think LSU is going to move the ball up and down the field against what is still the country’s top scoring defense (11.5 PPG allowed) are sorely mistaken. On the flip side, I expect more points from the Clemson offense here as they are freed from the poor field conditions at the Orange Bowl. The Tigers had the nation’s best scoring differential in the regular season and are 11-3 ATS. 10* Clemson

10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss (11:30 AM ET): The Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, TX will be the home for our top College Football bowl total. Both Tulane and Southern Miss are led by the respective offenses, each of which can claim to have a QB that accounted for at least 3,000 total yards. In the case of Tulane's Justin McMillan, he ran for 704 yards in addition to throwing for 2,229. Nearly half (12) of his 26 total TD's came on the ground. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham got there in more of a "traditional sense" with 3,329 yards passing, though five of his 23 total TDs were rushing. Take the Over here. 

Tulane didn't exactly play well down the stretch as they come in having lost five of six, including three straight. This is the exact opposite of last year when they started 2-5 SU before closing on a 5-1 run that included a 41-24 bowl win (Cure) over Louisiana. Still they did go 6-1 SU/ATS as chalk in 2019 and they are favored in this game. That's pretty significant as the Green Wave averaged 41.1 PPG this year when favored. But it's also easy to see why they faltered down the stretch and that's a leaky defense that gave up an average of 35.7 points those L6 games. 

The Southern Miss offense didn't do much of anything in the last two regular season games and that's what cost them a shot at playing for the C-USA Championship. In fact, the Golden Eagles' last five games have all stayed Under. But this is a bowl game and I expect a more wide open offensive display. You have two offenses averaging over 400 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. These are old rivals both happy to be in a bowl game. Southern Miss scored 30 or more seven times while Tulane crossed that threshold eight times. Be prepared for a shootout. 10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss

10* Ohio (3:30 ET): Of the 78 FBS teams that made it into a bowl game, we have Nevada rated as the worst. The Wolf Pack went 7-5 SU in what was a "down year" in the Mountain West Conference and had only two wins by more the seven points. Those two wins were against UTEP and New Mexico, who combined for a 3-21 SU record. Two stunning upsets - over Purdue and San Diego State (both coming as 17-pt dogs) - are what got them to Idaho for the Famous Potato Bowl. 

Ohio had a disappointing regular season as many, myself included, figured this was the year they'd finally win a MAC Championship for HC Frank Solich (15th season in Athens). But the Bobcats still are w/o a MAC Championship going all the way back to 1968. The reason for that is tey underachieved this year, losing four different times as a favorite. But even though neither played in the Conference Championship Game, we still consider OU right next to Western Michigan as the best teams the MAC had to offer this year. The Bobcats offense averaged nearly 35 PPG and is led by QB Nathan Rourke, who threw for 2,676 yards w/ a 20-5 TD-INT ratio. 

Adding to the list of Nevada issues is that five players have been suspended for this game. Four of them are defensive starters. Three are among the top six tacklers on an already suspect defense (32.1 PPG allowed). Three of the four suspended defensive starters won't play at all, the fourth will miss only the 1st half. The reason for the suspensions was a fight w/ UNLV at the end of the regular season finale. The Wolf Pack were outscored by nearly 11 PPG this year, a stunning margin for a bowl team. Basically the entire defensive coaching staff was let go after the loss to the UNLV. While this number has already moved some, that's okay as we have Ohio as almost a two-touchdown favorite for this one! 10* Ohio 

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): Indiana has not won a bowl game since the '91 Copper. Granted, they've been to only four since, but this program is dying for something resembling a "marquee" victory. Beating Tennessee in the Gator Bowl would certainly qualify. The Hoosiers have perennially struggled to beat the top teams they face as is evident by a shocking 1-16 SU record as an underdog under HC Tom Allen (third year here). But A LOT of those games have been close. My own power rankings say IU should be the favorite here, so I'll take them with the added value.

Things were not looking good for Tennessee after a 1-4 SU start that included a home loss to Georgia State. But credit HC Jeremy Pruitt for turning things around in Knoxville as the Vols finished on a 6-1 SU run w/ the lone loss coming to Alabama. But as far as SEC schedules go, the one UT made its run against was pretty easy. It has only two wins over bowl teams, those being Kentucky (by 4) and Mississippi State (by 10). They lost to Florida, Georgia and Bama by an average of nearly four touchdowns per game. I'm really not sure why the Volunteers were bet to the role of favorite here. 

Admittedly, you could say some of the same things about Indiana as they didn't beat a single bowl team and all of its losses were to teams ranked at the time. But I come back to the Hoosiers wanting that elusive bowl win. In the two years before Allen's arrival, they were close, losing by three in overtime to Duke (Pinstripe) then by two to Utah (Foster Farms). The latter was actually Allen's first game as HC (was interim). I'm trusting my own numbers and for the Hoosiers to be the more motivated side here. 10* Indiana

10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati (3:00 ET): B.C. is clearly not at "full strength" entering the Birmingham Bowl. Despite leading his (now former) team to an upset win over Pitt in the regular season finale (that got them bowl eligible), Steve Addazio was let go as the HC after seven seasons where the Eagles never finished w/ more than seven victories. RB A.J. Dillon, the team's best player, won't be suiting up here either as he's getting ready for the NFL Draft. So it's no wonder B.C. is a decided underdog here. But if we've learned anything about the Eagles it's that they are a dangerous underdog. They've covered 13 of the last 19 times getting points including a 9-0 ATS record priced between +3.5 and +10.  Five of those nine covers came this season.

Furthermore, Cincinnati comes into this game with a possible lack of motivation after suffering B2B losses to Memphis. The second was in the American Conference Championship Game and that cost them the chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. Still, Luke Fickell has done a good job here in guiding the program to B2B 10+ win seasons and the Bearcats are definitely a better team than B.C. But will they show up? One thing I'm counting on is Cincy scoring plenty of points in this one as the Boston College defense was not up to par in 2019, giving up 31.7 points and 480.3 yards per game. The Eagles are among the worst teams in the country at defending the pass. 

Despite Dillon sitting out and an interim head coach (Rich Gunnell), I expect Boston College's offense to perform better than expected. Dillon's backup David Bailey ran for 811 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. This is an offense that averaged more than 30 PPG. But the B.C. defense remains a major liability. Cincinnati comes in on a five-game Under streak, but I expect that to change here in a game where both teams could go for 30+ pts. Another key factor is that the Bearcats' defense allowed only 13.3 PPG at home, but 28.9 PPG on the road. 10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati

10* Georgia (8:45 ET): A stunning number of Georgia players (13!) will be sitting out here in order to avoid injury. As a result, the 5th ranked team in the country has been bet down considerably for this Sugar Bowl matchup w/ Baylor on New Year's Day. Almost all the players that are sitting out can be counted among the two-deep on the roster and six are starters. But it sure seems as if people are "forgetting" how good the Bulldogs were this year. Those who do suit up are going to be motivated and with the number being bet down so much, I'm willing to lay it!

Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country. Sure, they gave up 37 points to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. But given how the top-ranked Tigers looked against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal Saturday, that's really not all that bad. It was actually 12 pts below LSU's season average and one of only three times the Tigers were held below 40 pts in the regular season. I know Baylor HC Matt Rhule has an incredible ATS record when getting points (34-14 all-time). But even with QB Charlie Brewer back under center (suffered concussion in Big 12 Champ Game), I believe the Bears are going to struggle to score here. 

Those Georgia players that do take the field New Year's Night will be motivated. Not just because everyone is seemingly "writing them off," but also because of what happened in this game last year. The Bulldogs were 12-point favorites against Texas, came in and gave an uninspired effort and lost outright 28-21. I had the Under on that game, which was also a double-digit winner. I don't see history repeating itself w/ UGA laying an egg in B2B Sugar Bowls. This is great value as Baylor overachieved this year, winning four games by less than three points or in overtime. 10* Georgia 

10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming (4:30 ET): Admittedly, Wyoming very much has the statistical profile of an Under team. They have a defense that allows just 17.8 points per game and just 2.9 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the offense comes into the Arizona Bowl averaging just 24.3 PPG and 18.3 outside of Laramie. Since QB Sean Chambers (dual threat) went down with a season-ending knee injury, it's no wonder that every Cowboys game has finished Under the total. Overall, they are on a six-game Under streak coming into this game. 

However, it's a much different story with the Georgia State defense, which allows a 65% completion percentage and 5.3 yards per carry. They give up 36.1 points and 451 yards per game and those numbers get even worse away from home. Thankfully though, the Panthers can score. They average 32.4 points and 446.9 yards per game. So this will be a real "clash of styles" on New Year's Eve afternoon. 

The Wyoming offense may not have the most impressive resume, but they come into the Arizona Bowl as a bit of a "wild card" due to the fact seldom used freshman Levi Williams will get the start at QB. Look for the Pokes to heavily lean on RB Xazavian Valladay, who had a 1,000 yd regular season. Given that Georgia State's defense allows such a high number of YPC, look for Wyoming to move the ball more than they usually do. There were seven different games this season where Georgia State opponents had 200+ rushing yards. Those six opponents averaged a whopping 42.2 PPG, all but one scoring at least 37. The Georgia State offense will do enough to help get this one get Over. 10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming  

10* Under Virginia/Florida (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl is expected to be pretty lopsided with Florida now a two-touchdown favorite over Virginia. Virginia did win its division (ACC Coastal) and will always hold a special place in our hearts as they were our 10* Game of the Year against Virginia Tech in the regular season finale. They got it done, winning 39-30 as a 1.5-point underdog. That win also snapped a 15-year losing skid to the Hokies. Unfortunately, the Hoos then got their doors blown off in the ACC Championship Game by Clemson, losing 62-17. So its easy to see why they are such big dogs for this game. 

Florida surprised me some by delivering a second straight 10-win season for HC Dan Mullen. The Gators' only two losses were to LSU and Georgia. They won their last three games by a total of 96 points. The QB situation is something to monitor here. While Kyle Trask completed over 67% of his attempts for 2,636 yards, there have been rumblings about Mullen wanting to "open things up" with Emory Jones.

Virginia's offense averaged 32.4 PPG (2nd most in school history) behind QB Bryce Perkins. I know their last five games all went Over, but look for the Cavaliers to struggle to move the ball here, much like they did vs. Clemson in the ACC Championship. Florida's defense allows just 14.4 PPG, has pitched three shutouts this year and has held five different opponents without a touchdown. Virginia doesn't really run the ball effectively, so if they become one-dimensional vs. Florida, they are in big trouble. Both teams scored a lot less away from home (Virginia just 22.5 PPG, Florida 26.5), so look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Virginia/Florida

8* Western Michigan (12:30 ET): If Western Michigan doesn't show up motivated for the First Responder Bowl on Monday afternoon (in Dallas), then I don't know what to say. They lost the regular season finale (as a 10-point favorite) at Northern Illinois, which cost them a chance to play for the MAC Championship. The Broncos were probably the best team in the MAC this year. They beat both teams that ended up in the Championship Game - Miami by 22 and Central Michigan by 16. They have both the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year from the conference.

Western Kentucky went 3-9 SU last year. So not many people were expecting a bowl appearance in Tyson Helton's first season in Bowling Green. But the Hilltoppers improved all the way to 8-4 SU on the back of pulling five outright upsets, one of them 45-19 over Arkansas, which was ironic because that's where QB Ty Storey transfered from. I am surprised that WKU is favored here. They were a favorite just four times in the regular season, none of those against bowl teams (one was a FCS team). They faced only four bowl teams all year and went 2-2 SU in those games (beat Southern Miss & UAB).

Another motivating factor for Western Michigan here is their 1-8 SU record in bowls. They got embarrassed out in Idaho LY by BYU 47-18. I realize that the Broncos had just one win outside Kalamazoo this year, but I believe they are the better team here. Thus, getting points, I'm on board. They were an underdog in only four games in the regular season and the only one where they were getting more than 3.5 points was against Michigan State. Western Kentucky is just 4-12-1 ATS its L17 games as a favorite w/ eight outright losses.  Take the points. 8* Western Michigan 

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): One bad first half (Big 10 Champ Game vs. Wisconsin) and it seems as if everyone is flocking to get off the Ohio State bandwagon. That has me scratching my head as the Buckeyes were the best team in the country during the regular season, covering the spread by an average of 11.8 PPG, the highest mark of any team. I did NOT agree with the Buckeyes being moved down from #1 to #2 in the final CFP Rankings and think they now offer a tremendous value as an underdog (1st time all season) going for revenge against the team that embarrassed them in their last CFP appearance. Take the points. 

Now Clemson is not without its own merits. They are the defending National Champions and come in with the best ATS record in the country at 10-3 (covered 4 in a row). But it's difficult (for me) to look past the massive difference in strength of schedule that exists between them and Ohio State. The ACC was easily the weakest of the Power 5 conferences this year as no other team finished inside the top 40 of my own personal power rankings! The only Top 40 team Clemson faced was Texas A&M and that was early in the year at home. While the Tigers appeared to peak down the stretch, they were going up against some really depleted and overmatched opponents. 

You can go ahead and throw out that 1H Ohio State played vs. Wisconsin. It was a really tough spot for the Buckeyes as they went into the game not even needing to win to make the playoff. The fact they still ended up winning by double digits is quite impressive. Nine of Ohio State's wins this year came against teams that are currently in my Top 40 and remember they won every game by double digits. Compare that to the one Top 40 win Clemson has. Once I saw the Buckeyes open as the underdog, I knew this had to be my top bowl selection. The only time they have been a dog since 2014 was LY's game vs. Michigan, which they ended up winning 62-39. The program has won outright the L7 times its been a dog! 10* Ohio State

8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I get the sense coming out of South Bend that the Fighting Irish faithful view the 2019 season, Brian Kelly's 10th leading the program, as a step back. I suppose that makes sense. Notre Dame was in the CFP last year, though that certainly didn't end well. But the Irish did go 10-2 SU this year. One of those losses was to Georgia and they covered the spread. The other was to Michigan, which was NOT a good performance, but that game was also played in a driving rainstorm. Since going down to the Wolverines, ND has won five in a row and is 4-1 ATS. 

Iowa State is looking to finish 8-5 SU for a third straight year under HC Matt Campbell. Four of their five losses this year were by a TD or less. They did spend a good part of the season in the Top 25, but also lost three of their last five games to fall out of the rankings. Ranked opponents were generally the ones that gave the Cyclones trouble as they lost 2 of 3 such games and that doesn't even include a loss to Baylor, who was not ranked at the time. The one win over a ranked opponent was Texas, who did not finish the year in the Top 25.

Notre Dame is #15, which is where they should be. Interesting is that both of the Fighting Irish's losses came as dogs. They were a perfect 10-0 SU as favorites, covering the spread in all but three of those games. While ISU's record as a dog (14-4 ATS w/ six outright wins L3 yrs) must be respected, I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Because they've struggled in bowls recently, I expect Notre Dame to come out motivated for this one. 8* Notre Dame

analysis soon

8* Michigan State (3:20 ET): There's no denying that Michigan State underachieved this year. That can be quickly confirmed by their 3-9 ATS record. But I'm still surprised to see Sparty laying such a short number in this year's Pinstripe Bowl to a clearly inferior Wake Forest side. I still consider Mark Dantonio's team to be a top 30 team (in the country) despite its pedestrian 6-6 SU mark. There are issues offensively, but the same can be said for their opponent, who is dealing with uncertainty at QB and a depleted receiving corps. I'm going to lay the short number here.

Wake Forest has won and covered three straight bowl games under HC Dave Clawson. But there is some uncertainty over who will be starting at QB in the Pinstripe Bowl after Jamie Newman got hurt in the final regular season game. If Newman can't go, it will be Sam Hartman under center. Regardless if it's Newman or Hartman, the Wake Forest receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries this year. All the injuries resulted in the Demon Deacons losing three of their last four games. They haven't won a game outside of Winston-Salem since beating Boston College 27-24 in the final weekend of September. Their only other road win was against Rice. 

The Pinstripe Bowl is unique in that it is played in cold weather (NYC). Sure enough, that's led to the Big 10 (more accustomed to the cold) going 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC in the bowl's short history, the only loss coming in overtime. The Big 10 is clearly better than the ACC this year. While their offense struggles, the Spartans have a massive defensive edge here as WF gives up nearly 35 PPG away from home. Being in a bowl was clearly important for MSU as they won their final two regular season games to get here. Sparty is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. WF is 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS as an underdog in the same price range. 8* Michigan State

8* Miami FL (4:00 ET): Miami does not have a good recent history in bowl games. They've gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine, including last year's complete "no-show" vs. Wisconsin (lost 35-3). This year, "The U" heads to Shreveport, LA for what will be a de facto road game against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. Despite that history of failing to "get up" for bowl games, I am shocked to see how this number has been bet down so much. The Hurricanes are simply more talented than their opponent, which played the weakest schedule in all of the FBS. Yes, some players have elected to sit this one out for Miami (preparing for NFL Draft), but I believe the holdovers will indeed "show up" Thursday afternoon. Lay the points. 

I thought Miami would contend for the ACC's Coastal Division title. Interestingly enough, they did defeat division champ Virginia 17-9 in a game they were favored to win! They also easily could have beaten the team favored to win this year's Orange Bowl, that being #9 Florida, but blew a 4Q lead in that one (season opener). Three terrible outright losses down to the stretch (Ga Tech, FIU, Duke) definitely took the shine off Manny Diaz's team. But they still have a tremendous defense that ranked 13th in the country in yards allowed (307.6 per game). Louisiana Tech simply did not face a team this talented all year w/ the possible exception of Texas, who crushed them by 31 points.

La Tech's recent bowl history is good as they have won five straight. But the Bulldogs also have to shake off some disappointment from the way they ended the regular season. QB J'Mar Smith was among the key suspensions down the stretch that cost this team the chance to play in the C-USA Title Game. The suspended players are all back, but it's difficult to look past the fact that La Tech is just 2-3 SU vs. bowl teams w/ those wins coming over FIU and Southern Miss. Also, the defense is going to be without its top cornerback as he's sitting out for the Draft. I think the Bulldogs' offense is going to struggle against this Miami defense and the undervalued favorite (which should be laying double digits) is going to come through  8* Miami FL

***Note: This analysis was written prior to the announcement that several FAU players would be suspended. But I am still recommending a play on FAU at the current number!***

10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): The Boca Raton Bowl is a home game for FAU, who won this very bowl game 50-3 (over Akron) two years ago to cap an incredible first season under Lane Kiffin. Ironically, this same bowl is where the next chapter of FAU football will begin as Kiffin has moved on to Ole Miss and won't be coaching Saturday. Kiffin departs having gone 26-13 SU in his three seasons in Boca Raton, twice winning 10+ games and a C-USA Championship. Willie Taggart, fresh off failing over at Florida State, will be Kiffin's replacement. But DC Glenn Spencer will serve as the interim for the bowl.

SMU was shaping up to be a really nice story, starting 8-0 for the first time since 1982 (program's heyday, pre "Death Penalty") and there was talk that Sonny Dykes' team would be making it to the Cotton Bowl, which would have been one heck of a story. But the Mustangs dropped two of their final four regular season games and were pretty much an afterthought in the AAC race going into the final weekend. That shouldn't take away from what the team has accomplished in two years under Dykes, but the only bowl teams it beat were Arkansas State, Temple and Tulane. 

Were it not for Kiffin leaving, you'd have to think FAU would be the favorite here. A coach leaving is obviously a very big deal, but this is still a home game for the Owls, who have won six in a row. There were no signs of "packing it in" in the C-USA Title Game when they dismantled UAB 49-6 on this field. I was 3-0 ATS taking FAU this year, including that C-USA Title Game. They are +14.5 PPG at home and it should be pointed out that since opening 0-2 (lost to UCF and Ohio St!), the Owls are 10-1 SU and have scored 31 or more pts in every game but one! They aren't as strong as the team that covered this game as a 22-point favorite two years ago. But they shouldn't be getting points either. 10* Florida Atlantic

10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State (2:00 ET): The New Mexico Bowl pits Central Michigan of the MAC against San Diego State of the Mountain West. Both teams saw their respective regular seasons end in disappointment. Central Michigan lost outright (to Miami) as a favorite in the MAC Championship Game while San Diego State lost a de facto division title game to Hawaii, which would have given it the right to play for its own conference title. The Aztecs did bounce back to defeat BYU 13-3 in the regular season finale, so unlike CMU they are off a win.

San Diego State was the #1 under team during the regular season with an O/U mark of 1-11. Their last six games have all stayed Under and have been incredibly low-scoring by modern college football standards. This is a team that averages just 19.0 PPG, which falls in the bottom 12 of all of FBS and is the lowest average among bowl teams. To help counteract that, the Aztecs defense allows only 12.8 PPG, which ranks 4th in the FBS. The only teams to allow fewer are: Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State. But the big key here for the Aztecs is that QB Ryan Agnew will be back in the lineup after he missed the BYU game. 

While San Diego State certainly has the profile to match its O/U results, this is a bowl game and often times that means you don't get the same kind of defensive intensity. It's also an early start time for SDSU, so don't be surprised if the defense is a bit "sleepy" to start. Central Michigan averages 31.9 PPG and had scored 38+ in six of seven before losing the MAC Champ Game. At the same time, the Chippewas defense isn't good outside of Mt Pleasant as they allow 34.6 PPG on the road. SDSU HC Rocky Long knows CMU HC Jim McElwain well from the time the former spent at Colorado State. McElwain has done a great job in his first year here (CMU was 1-11 LY) and you can look for it to end w/ an Over. 10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State

analysis soon

8* Virginia (7:30 ET): After what they did for me last week, how could I not come back with the Hoos here? As my *10* College Football Game of the Year last Friday, they ended what had been a 15-year losing streak to rival Va Tech w/ an outright 39-30 win as 2.5-point dogs. Thus all seven teams in the ACC Coastal have now won the division in the last 7 years. Hopefully, Virginia is not just "happy to be here" as defending Nat'l Champ Clemson awaits them in the Conference Championship Game. I'm willing to bank on that NOT being the case and will grab a HUGE number.

Anyone who follows my plays knows I have no loyalty to any team. This play is clearly more about the number than what Virginia did last week. It's actually the second year in a row Clemson comes into the ACC Title Game as a four-TD favorite. They covered last year, beating Pitt 42-10, but that was an inferior foe to what they'll be facing here. Yes, the #3 ranked Tigers have destroyed everything in their path the last two months, winning seven straight by an average of more than 41 PPG. Their only ATS loss during that stretch was to FCS Wofford as they were laying 49 in a 45-point win. But Virginia is the strongest team Clemson will have faced these L2 months. 

It has not always been pretty for Virginia, but they've averaged over 41 PPG during a current four-game win streak. Their largest loss (in terms of margin) this season was 15 to Notre Dame and that was a game that they actually led at the half. They still ended up outgaining the Fighting Irish, but could not overcome five turnovers, one of which was a fumble returned for a touchdown. The other two Cavaliers' losses were by 7 and 9 points. As we saw last week, QB Bryce Perkins is a playmaker. Clemson doesn't need "style points" here. They just need to win. Look for the dog to stay within the number. 8* Virginia

10* Georgia (4:00 ET): What separates this game from the two other Conference Championship Games involving unbeaten teams (Big 10, ACC) is that the underdog also happens to be playing for a chance to make the College Football playoff. #4 Georgia will be in the CFP w/ a win Saturday over LSU. While that's "easier said than done," I don't think the gap between these two SEC schools is as large as the oddsmakers seem to believe. I've got the line closer to a field goal than a touchdown and that's some pretty substantial value on a side that has everything to gain. Take the points.

Georgia's only loss this year was in double overtime to South Carolina. You may recall that I was on the right side of that one. However, let it be noted that the Bulldogs were -4 in turnovers in that game, negating a rather huge 468-297 edge in total yardage. So they easily could be undefeated coming into this game, just like LSU. Were that the case, this line would be a whole lot shorter. The Bulldogs' defense has a claim to be the best in the country as it gives up only 10.3 PPG (2nd best behind Clemson). It's a better defense than Alabama and the best LSU will have faced all year. Offensively, UGA is going to have to run the ball effectively here. They should considering LSU has allowed running backs to average more than 6.0 YPC the L5 games. 

There's no denying how good LSU is, but I just don't think they are a full TD better than Georgia on a neutral field. Obviously, it's pretty rare for Georgia to be an underdog. They are 3-0 ATS in that role under HC Kirby Smart. Remember that LSU's only two "comparable" opponents would be Bama and Auburn and the Tigers only won those games by a combined eight points. This is Georgia's third straight year playing for the SEC Title, which is a bit of an advantage as well. They also have big time revenge for an ugly 36-13 loss in Baton Rouge last year where they actually came in as a 7-point road favorite. Special teams edge goes to the underdog here as well. 10* Georgia

10* Florida Atlantic (1:30 ET): UAB should be commended for a remarkable "rebirth." Three years ago, there wasn't even a football program! But after two years of suspending operations, HC Bill Clark has helped lead one of the great stories in College Football. Over the last three seasons, the Blazers have won 8, 11 and 9 games. This is the second year in a row they are playing for the C-USA Championship. They won it last year, beating Middle Tennessee 27-25 as a 1-pt home dog. But this year they have to travel to face Florida Atlantic, who won this game two years ago. 

FAU had a down year in 2018, winning only five games. But Lane Kiffin has the Owls right back where they were in 2017. Well, maybe they aren't quite as good as that team, but they have blown through the conference schedule. They are 7-1 SU in C-USA play, outscoring teams by 17.3 points per game. Since losing to Marshall on 10.18, the Owls have won five straight - all by double digits. Twice in the regular season they were a big play for me, once against Charlotte and the other against Western Kentucky. Both times they were drastically undervalued, which is again the case here. 

While UAB should be lauded for what it has accomplished these last three seasons, the fact is they played arguably the weakest schedule in the entire country this year. They faced only four bowl teams (Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern Miss, La Tech) and the only one they beat (La Tech) was dealing w/ a bunch of suspensions. Plus that was the only one of the four games that was at home. In six road games during the regular season, the Blazers averaged only 18.2 PPG. Other than Marshall, FAU's only other losses were to Ohio St and UCF, the first two games of the season. The Owls are again the class of C-USA and will demonstrate that on Saturday. 10* Florida Atlantic

10* Oregon (8:00 ET): Since losing at USC on a Friday night (a result I was on the right side of!), Utah has won eight in a row - both SU and ATS - and only once during that win streak has the final margin been LESS than 25 points. But they've really not had to face many quality opponents either. Only three of the teams they played went on to become bowl eligible and none won more than seven regular season games. The one close game they did play over the L2 months was at Washington where they had to rally for a 33-28 win as three-point chalk. The Utes did not face North Division Champ Oregon in the regular season. 

Oregon actually wrapped up its division sooner than Utah, despite having the inferior overall record. Maybe that says something about the North, but it actually had more teams finish bowl eligible than the South did. The Ducks' two losses this year have been by a total of nine points and one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) saw them in the lead for 59+ minutes. There is no shame in losing to Auburn nor Arizona State, who got Oregon two weeks ago in what was my Pac 12 Game of the Year. While Utah can lay claim to having beat ASU 21-3, the Ducks can claim to have beaten USC 56-24 and that was on the road. (Utah got ASU at home). 

Utah lost the Pac 12 Championship Game last year (10-3 to Washington), so that'll serve as extra motivation. Not to mention a win here would place them in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. But you can't discount an Oregon side that has been an underdog just one time this year (the Auburn game) and gives up only 15.8 PPG. The Utes were fortunate to extend their ATS win streak last week as they scored late to cover the 29-point spot against Colorado. Oregon will easily be Utah's toughest opponent to date while the Ducks have the confidence knowing they should have beaten a comparable Auburn team (that just beat Alabama). Take the points. 10* Oregon 

8* Army (11:59 ET): Everything about this situation screams "Army!" They have to win to get bowl eligible. They are coming off a bye. Before the bye, they had easy wins over UMass and VMI. Hawaii's situation could not be any more different. They are off a huge 14-11 win over San Diego State that guaranteed them a spot in next week's Mountain West Championship Game vs. Boise State. With that lookahead, the last thing the coaching staff wants to do is spend time preparing for the unique Army offense. Even before factoring in the obvious situational edge Army has, they should not be an underdog in this game. Take the points.

Army won 21 games the previous two seasons, so 2019 has been a bit of a disappointment. All six losses this year have been by single digits, three of them by five points or less. Disappointment aside, this is such a favorable matchup. Not only because of the extra week to prepare for the long trip to Honolulu, but also because Hawaii's defense can be quite bad at stopping the run. The Warriors are bottom 10 in the country in yards per carry allowed and figure to have face the run 60+ times in this game. Earlier in the year, Hawaii faced Air Force and gave up 353 yards rushing on almost 7.0 YPC! Yikes! That ended up being a 56-26 loss.

As if the situation couldn't be less favorable for Hawaii, the forecast is calling for high winds, which will limit their passing attack. Tip your cap to the job HC Nick Rolovich has done in his two years in Honolulu. No one expected the Warriors to make it to the Mt West Champ Game this season. But the excitement of doing so works against the team this week. Keep in mind Hawaii needed a missed FG last week to preserve the win over San Diego State. The offense has scored only 35 total pts the last two games. 8* Army

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): Things couldn't have possibly gone any better for Arizona State last week as they upset Oregon 31-28 as a 2 TD underdog. The win got the Sun Devils bowl eligible while simultaneously killing any shot Oregon had of making the CFP. But that result sets up this rare spot where ASU is unlikely to be able to have the same intensity for their rivalry game as they did last week. Arizona will treat this year's edition of the "Territorial Cup" as its "bowl game" as they come in at 4-7 SU. Last year, the Wildcats needed to beat ASU to get bowl eligible but lost. They'll certainly be hungry for some payback here. Take the points.

Failing to make a bowl in B2B seasons is hardly how the faithful in Tucson envisioned the Kevin Sumlin era starting. But that's the reality here. The Wildcats have not covered since a 35-30 win at Colorado (were +2.5) back on October 5th. Since pulling that upset, they are 0-6 SU and ATS. While an outright win here seems unlikely, if the Wildcats can't show some pride, then Sumlin's stay here could be a short one. You can't keep getting blown out, week after week. Winning this rivalry game would at least be a nice way to end a disappointing season. 

While I struggle to write anything positive about Arizona here, this is more of a fade on ASU. Not only is it a difficult spot due to being off a big-time upset, but the Sun Devils have not been good as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as chalk for Coach Herm this season including three outright losses. The split in two years under Edwards is now pretty severe. ASU is 2-8-1 ATS when favored. Getting points, they are 9-5 ATS w/ six outright wins. This is just the 6th time under Edwards that they've been favored in a Pac 12 game and they've failed to cover the last four including three outright losses this year! The Sun Devils have only had to lay more than 7.5 pts twice in 2019 and those games resulted in ATS losses vs. Sacramento State & Kent State. 8* Arizona

8* Over BYU/San Diego State (9:00 ET): A tough spot for SDSU here. The Aztecs lost out in Hawaii last week, a game that decided the MWC West Division. The disappointment of knowing they won't be able to play for a conference championship will likely linger into this regular season finale vs. BYU. Brigham Young is an independent, thus they have no such distractions. They've won five straight, two of them against Mt West teams including the likely conference champ Boise State. They've already booked a trip to the 2019 Hawaii Bowl. I don't this game will have the same defensive intensity as it would have were it played a few weeks ago. Take the Over. 

Every San Diego State game but one has gone Under this year (10-1 Under). But coming off the close loss to Hawaii last week, I don't see the Aztecs' defense playing up to its usual standard. It was an 'ugly' 14-11 setback out on the island w/ a missed FG in the final minute being the difference. I realize the Aztecs' offense has struggled mightily throughout this 2019 season and will be w/o QB Ryan Agnew here. But if they can get close to 20 points (they average 19.5 PPG), then this should be an easy Over w/ the number being so low.

BYU is banged up in the backfield as well, but still scored 56 points last week. I know that was against a terrible UMass defense, but the Cougars have averaged almost 40 PPG during their current win streak. I know they aren't likely to approach that number this week, but even half that would likely lead to an Over. BYU has dominated San Diego State through the years, winning six straight and 9 of 10 going back to 2002. It's important to note this will be the lowest O/U for the Cougars this season. The only lower O/U for SDSU was the one time they went Over (vs. Wyoming).  This game finds a way to get Over. 8* Over BYU/San Diego St

8* Colorado (7:30 ET): Well, Arizona was unable to get the job done last week. But you can expect more motivation from Colorado here against #6 Utah. I was impressed by the effort from Mel Tucker's team in a 20-14 upset of Washington last week where they were 2 TD home underdogs. The Buffaloes do to hit the road this week and while another upset is unlikely, it would give them bowl eligibility. Because of that, I don't see this turning into another Utah blowout. The Utes are red hot, but could be looking ahead to next week's Pac 12 Championship Game vs. Oregon. They'll win, but won't cover. 

Utah technically has not qualified for the Pac 12 Championship Game yet They need to win this game. Obviously, judging by the pointspread, winning seems like a formality. The Utes have won and covered seven straight since losing at USC on a Friday night back in September. That 7-game ATS win streak is currently the longest in the country. There is no doubt that this is an impressive team that has the credentials to make the College Football Playoff were they to win out. But even though six of their last seven wins have come by at least 25 points, I see this being "closer than the experts think." It's the biggest number the Utes have had to lay to any FBS opponent all season.

Colorado dominated the line of scrimmage in last week's upset of Washington, running for 207 yds at 5.0 YPC. They held the Huskies to just 238 total yds, including only 32 on the ground. It was the second game in a row the much maligned Buffaloes defense allowed 14 pts or less. It's not going to be that easy here, but they enticement of a bowl opportunity should keep the underdog motivated throughout. The Buffs played a couple "stinkers" at Oregon and Washington State, but three of their other four losses have been by a TD or less. Utah is entering a game w/ some real pressure for the 1st time and I think they play this one pretty "close to the vest."  They've not been a 28+ pt favorite vs. a FBS foe in the L5 seasons. 8* Colorado

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): This game will determine the winner of the Big 10 West and who goes on to face Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Big 10 West was thought to be pretty wide open coming into the year, so it's not that big of a surprise to see a team like Minnesota coming from "relative obscurity" to challenge for the crown. But it also should be pointed out that the Gophers have played the easiest Big 10 schedule possible by avoiding both Ohio State & Michigan. They've been favored in almost every game, save for the loss to Iowa and a game against Penn State where they gave up over 500 yards. Wisconsin is the better team here. 

The Badgers are a team I once considered to be "top 5 worthy." Their season obviously changed w/ B2B weeks where they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite and then were blown out by Ohio State. After allowing just 29 pts total the first six games (FOUR shutouts!), the Badgers have given up 21 or more to the L5 opponents. Yet all but one win this year has come by at least nine points. They have outgained opponents by 173.1 YPG this season. Not afraid to lay the short number here as Wisconsin is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite. 

This is actually the oldest rivalry in College Football as it dates back to 1890. Minnesota snapped a 15-year losing streak last year w/ a convincing 37-15 win in Madison, a game which they came in as 11-point underdogs. I'm sure the Badgers remember and revenge will be a factor. The Golden Gophers have not won "Paul Bunyan's Axe" (trophy the teams play for) B2B years since 1993-94. This boils down to the fact that I have simply been more impressed w/ Wisconsin this year. Minnesota is still a team I'm not sure deserves to be mentioned among the top 15 nationally, even w/ their WL record. There were five different games they easily could have lost this year. 10* Wisconsin

***THIS PLAY IS ACTUALLY ON THE OVER 

10* Over Wyoming/Air Force (2:00 ET): I've had lots of success betting Air Force games this season, starting w/ the Flyboys' 31-7 thrashing of Utah State in a late night home game back on October 26th. Since then, I've managed to both successfully fade them (laying 17 to Army) and cash them (at Colorado State, thanks to a late pick-six). The Falcons come into the regular season finale at 9-2 (2nd best record among Mt West teams) after clobbering New Mexico 44-22 last week, a game I did not play. Considering how much they've been scoring of late, I think Over is a more than reasonable play here, especially w/ such a low number. 

The reason for the total being so low here is Wyoming. The Cowboys have gone Under in five straight games and they've all been low-scoring affairs. QB Sean Chambers being lost for the season has played a big hand in the offense not doing much, but the Pokes do have a pretty good defense as well. Not since Missouri in the season opener has a Wyoming opponent scored more than 26 points. But I wouldn't be too convinced that the Cowboys are looking forward to facing the vaunted AFA triple option offense in this regular season finale. Other than vs. their fellow service academies (Army, Navy) and Boise State, Air Force has scored at least 30 points in every game this season.

The Falcons will certainly be motivated coming into this game. Not only can they make it a 10-win season, but they also are looking to snap a three-year losing skid to Wyoming. Two of those losses have come as favorites and they've given up at least 28 points in every game. But Wyoming has been a strong underdog this year, beating Missouri outright as a 16.5-pt dog and then only losing by a combined 15 pts the other four times they've gotten points. I get how Wyoming games have trended lately, but this O/U line is set to be the lowest for both teams this year. Even against a stout run defense, Air Force will get its ground game going. 10* Over Wyoming/Air Force

10* Virginia (12:00 ET): While much of the College Football world will be focusing in on the big Ohio State-Michigan game this weekend and whether or not the underdog can reverse an ugly series history in that particular rivalry, the same narrative also rings true here in the Commonwealth Cup. In fact, things have been even more one-sided here, if you can believe it. Virginia has lost to Va Tech a record 15 consecutive times with many of the recent battles being close. Last year's defeat was among the most painful as UVA blew a 4Q lead and fell in OT. 

Virginia came into this season w/ its eye on winning the ACC's Coastal Division. That goal will be accomplished if they can finally beat the Hokies. Despite the dreadful series history, there is some good news here for the Cavaliers. The game is in Charlottesville where they are a perfect 6-0 SU this season, winning by an average of 20 points per game. Their offensive output jumps up to 41.2 PPG here at Scott Stadium, which is well above what the average is on the road. The Hoos have been the most consistent Coastal team in 2019 and this is the first time they have been a home dog all season.

The bad news is Virginia Tech comes in hot. The Hokies share the same records as UVA as both are 8-3 overall and 5-2 in conference. But the path Va Tech to get here is a little different. They've caught fire in the second half of the season, winning six of seven (only loss was by 1 pt @ Notre Dame) after suffering what was a humiliating 45-10 defeat to Duke in a Friday night home game. The Hokies are also on a 6-0 ATS run after starting 0-4 ATS. Because they're hot and have had Virginia's number, this number has already changed significantly from the time it opened. I keep coming back to "if not now, when?" for Virginia. My projections say they should be a 5-pt favorite here. I'll trust those numbers and the fact Va Tech has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 games w/ a line of 3 pts or less. 10* Virginia 

10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan (12:00 ET): The complexion of this game was altered dramatically by Western Michigan losing Tuesday. Now the door is wide open for Central Michigan to win the MAC West. All the Chippewas must do is win this game, which they are expected to comfortably (now a double-digit favorite). But don't expect Toledo to roll over. The Rockets are bowl eligible, but a loss here would leave them at 6-6. With more MAC teams bowl eligible than there are available bowl slots, some of the 6-win teams are inevitably going to be left out. Toledo doesn't want to see it's 9-year bowl streak come to an end. 

If you've been following either of these teams, then you know both have been going Over the total with great regularity. Toledo is 5-0 Over its last five games while CMU is 6-0 Over its last six. But if you've been following my O/U plays during this great streak that I'm on, then you already know that fading such streaks has been "the name of the game." This is a higher O/U line than either team is used to seeing. Four of the five straight Toledo games that have gone Over have seen O/U lines of 58.5 pts or lower. Their games average 59.7 PPG for the season. Central Michigan has seen totals in the high 40's during their Over streak and this will be the highest O/U line for any of their games this year. CMU games average 60.0 PPG on the nose.

Putting aside the total for a moment, the streak CMU is more concerned about ending is nine straight losses to Toledo. While four of those losses have occurred in Mt. Pleasant, getting this game at home is huge for the Chippewas as they are allowing only 19.8 PPG here (5-0 SU). Toledo's scoring average drops to 23.2 PPG on the road. CMU has not scored more than 17 pts on the Rockets' defense since 2015. While this is a better team going against an inferior Toledo product, expect the offense to not totally have its way. This is potentially a "nervous moment" for the Chippewas. 10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan

10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): For Western Michigan, the mission is simple here. Win and you are the MAC West Division Champs. Lose and you open the door for Central Michigan, who plays Friday (at home vs. Toledo). The Broncos come into this game at 7-4 SU and winners of three straight. They've averaged an impressive 40.3 PPG during the win streak, however, it should be pointed out that before the L2 both went Over, WMU's previous five contests were all Unders. That's the way I'm thinking here as we're "due" for a low-scoring game Tuesday night in DeKalb. 

At 4-7 SU, Northern Illinois has been reduced to the role of spoiler in this regular season finale. This is one of the weaker Huskies teams in years and it'll be just the second time in the last decade that they're NOT going bowling. A big problem has been the offense, which has been held to just 23.4 PPG this year. They scored only 17 in a blowout loss to Eastern Michigan last week. On the bright side, the defense often "shows up" here at home (not last week) where it is allowing only 20.5 PPG. Last week saw NIU give up 24 pts in the 3Q w/ 10 of those coming off two turnovers that led to short fields.

Western Michigan had to go to OT last week to pick up its first road win of the season. The Broncos beat Ohio 37-34, a game which was 10-0 in their favor at halftime. The previous week saw another high scoring 2nd half, primarily the 4Q, against Ball State. They very easily could be coming into this game on a 7-game Under streak. NIU has gone Over in six straight, a streak I can't see continuing as their defense only allows 270 YPG at home for the season. Western Michigan's offense declines greatly on the road, down to 27.6 PPG. 10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois