40*

Minnesota Vikings +3.5

50*

Texas A&M -5.5

40*

New York Giants +3.5

This has the makings of the public burial of the day. The Saints and Brees are in a terrible spot. Not only are they playing back to back road games (where Brees has been a lot worse outdoors,) they're also coming off playing a 5 quarter game against their divisional arch-rival. They say that defense travels and this Saints defense is absolutely dreadful. To make matters worse, Robinson broke his leg and this secondary could be in for a long day. 

40*

Baltimore Ravens -5

I expect the Ravens to bounce back after their Thursday night loss to Cincy. I typical like backing teams that lose in primetime the previous week. The Ravens are in a great spot getting the extra few days to prepare, while the Broncos have to come to the east coast for a 1pm game for their first road game of the season. This team is extremely lucky to be 2-0 and as the looks of it, beat two really bad teams in the Seahawks and Raiders. The Broncos come into this game over valued and with the oddsmakers posting this line over 4 points tells me that the Ravens are clearly the right side here.

50*

Green Bay Packers -2.5

I know this is the square side but I have to back Aaron Rodgers here. The Redskins are a laughingstock. They don't have much talent and they have the worst home field advantage in the NFL. Being a Redskins fan, I watch this team closely and I don't see how Alex Smith, AKA Mr Check Down, can trade points with the MVP. Remember, Alex Smith was taken #1 Overall in the same draft as Rodgers, so you know he has a big time chip on his shoulder when playing him.

50* NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

Atlanta Falcons -5.5

This game has everything I look for in a Week 2 game in the NFL. We have a 1-0 team facing an 0-1 team and the Thursday night game loser playing on extra rest/preparation at home. If you watched that Falcons/Eagles game, you know that the Falcons were clearly the better team. I will say the weather and outdoors played a bit of a factor. Atlanta, like New Orleans, is a completely different animal playing in the dome. Carolina is also going to miss Olsen and the X-Factor for this game is the Hurricane. I believe the Panthers might not have full focus given the fact that their home town is in danger. 

40*

Florida -19.5

We were actually on Florida and Arkansas last week. We lost both bets as Florida laid a total egg and Colorado State scored 25 unanswered on their way to an epic comeback. This has given us tremendous value. We have a double digit favorite coming off an outright loss and a double digit dog coming off an outright win. Florida will be dying to get on the field to lay a beatdown against a team playing their first true road game of the season. 

40*

Auburn -10

Most would argue that you should take the points with such a low total. I believe this shows that Auburn is the clear right side. Auburn has serious revenge from last season as they dominated the game but let it slip through their fingers. Most will still remember the beat down LSU put on Miami thinking that they are better. Auburn has aruguably a Top 3 defensive line in the enitre nation. I'm expecting Auburn to do whatever they want tonight.

50* NFL MAX BET

Arizona Cardinals -1

I hate the move for Alex Smith by the Redskins. This is a major downgrade from Cousins and to make matters worse, they traded away one of their best DBs in the process. Sam Bradford will be behind center for Arizona and you won't confuse him for a Pro Bowler but he clearly can get the job done. We also have David Johnson back for the Cardinals and people are completely forgetting about him. This dude was absolutely tearing it up before he went down. The Redskins have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight season openers and this shows that they continue to be over valued coming into the season.

50* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH

Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I have the Minnesota Vikings rated as the best team in the NFL. This team has one of the best home field advantages in all of football. San Francisco comes into this season with a ton of hype. Everyone is jumping on the Jimmy G train and I don't think it's warranted. SF coming into the season last year was rated the WORST, #32! Now they get a QB and they're a Top 10 team according to some experts?! I don't think so. NFL teams now have an enitre offseason to prepare for him. What a way to start the season for the 49ers having to take on the NFL's best defense. The Vikings finally have a Top tier QB in Cousins and have a TON of weapons around him. This team is DEADLY.

50*

Miami-Ohio +1

40*

Middle Tennessee State +3

analysis will be posted after all picks are final.

BONUS FUTURES: Washington to win the National Championship + Win Pac-12.

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50*

Washington +2.5

analysis will be posted after all picks are final.

BONUS FUTURES: Washington to win the National Championship + Win Pac-12.

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50* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR

Louisiana State (LSU) -3

Everything points to the Bayou Bengals. Where do I even begin? First and foremost, if there is one team that is over-valued frequently, it is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Let me throw this stat at you...Notre Dame is WINLESS (0-10) straight up facing a Top 20 team away from home, going just 3-7 against the spread. ND is also an atrocious 0-9 and 1-8 against the number in New Year's Day Bowl games. 

As for LSU, this team is rolling right now. After their embarrassing loss to Troy, they finished the season 6-1 SU and ATS, with their only set back coming to Alabama. A big part of this is their defense. They rank 11th in total yards, 22nd through the air, 21st on the ground, and 14th in points allowed per game. They should be able to shut down this one dimensional rushing attack of the Fighting Irish.

My favorite factor is that this is the Citrus Bowl where LSU is very familiar with this bowl game. This gives a huge edge to LSU. Notre Dame just might have to much fun at Disney World haha.

50* One & Only NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -3

It's no secret. Tom Brady owns the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Brady entered the league (including the Playoffs) Tom Brady has 29 Touchdowns and 3 INTs. Against the Mike Tomlin coached Steelers...he's perfect, 22 TDs and ZERO interceptions. 

What makes this game special is that both teams just played on National TV. Steelers had a fantastic come back against their arch rivals on Sunday Night Football, where the Patriots looked like the Cleveland Browns against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Everyone remembers that the Patriots "aren't that good right now" and the Steelers "are unstoppable." Let's not forget, New England didn't have Gronk and were in an AWFUL spot. They were playing the Dolphins twice in 3 weeks and playing their 4th road game in 5 games. Belichick is the master at coaching and no doubt about it, he went vanilla as possible to get ready for the game this week. I hate to say games are meaningless but for all intents and purposes, last week's game meant nothing. Even with that loss, the Patriots still can get the #1 seed beating the Steelers here.

New England is 43-18 ATS off of a loss and are 24-7 ATS after having less than 250 yards the previous week. The Pats are fantastic at bouncing back. They are also 12-4 ATS against the Steelers which includes going 4-1 ATS in Pittsburgh.

40*

New York Giants +4.5

40* CFB UPSET SHOCKER

TCU +7.5

Everyone has already has Oklahoma locked in as Big 12 Champions and given them a birth into the College Football Playoff. That is NEVER a good thing. If there's one thing I know about the Oklahoma Sooners...they always find a way to lay an egg. They remind me of the Washington Redskins. 

Most of you know my handicapping style and its mainly playing contrarian and looking for those fishy lines. The OU powerhouse is only laying a TD to a TCU team that they already beat by 18 this season?! TCU has the defense to stay in this game and it would not shock me one bit to see the Horned Frogs (to use a March Madness term) bust some brackets. 

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +3

I am shocked we get the full FG here. To be honest, I was seeing if we could get lucky and snag a 3.5, but it's Saturday and we need to get this game out.

The situation clearly favors the Bills. They last played Thursday on the road, but it was still in New York (close to home), and looked awful against the Jets. Buffalo now gets the extra time to prepare and gets to play in their own building, where they are perfect on the season.

The stock couldn't be higher on the Saints right now and they are nearly unstoppable in New Orleans. However, its a completely different story on the road. They are just 1-7 ATS playing outdoors and to make matters worse, it's going to be damn near freezing in Buffalo on Sunday.

For all intents and purposes, this game is a must win for Buffalo. If you look at their remaining schedule, it'll be an uphill battle for the playoffs if they drop this one. Two against New England and on the road in KC. They also finish the season with two on the road.

40*

Duke -2.5

This line just stinks to me. A 4-5 Duke team is laying a FG on the ROAD to a 7-2 Army team that is 5-0 at home?! If you look closer, you will see that Duke has had two weeks to prepare for this game. It's almost always been successful to back the triple option teams with one week to prepare but you fade them when the opponents have the extra time. 

50* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR

Boston College +3

This game couldn't set up any better for the Golden Eagles. First off, BC has had since October 27th to get ready for this game. Furthermore, this is Boston College's last home game of the season. Motivation will be at an all time high and the atmosphere should be electric. 

NC State comes into this game off of two tough conference losses to ND and Clemson after starting the season 6-1. This team had ACC Title aspirations. It's going to be tough to get up for this game after playing two of the biggest programs in the country, especially after that nail biter at home against the National Champs. I expect a let down here from the Wolfpack. 

Bottomline is that Boston College has been money making machines of late, cashing 6 straight games against the number. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at home against NC State.

40* TOP PLAY UPSET SHOCKER

Iowa State +7

This what I like to call the "dream crusher" theory. Oklahoma State is now out of the College Football Playoff hunt with a devastating loss to their arch rival last week. This also nearly evaporates any chance of Mason Rudolph winning the Heisman Trophy. I don't know if this team has the motivation to blowout Iowa State here.

Iowa State has one of the more underrated home field advantages in college sports. The Cyclones have proved that they can ball with anyone. They knocked off Oklahoma and TCU! Iowa State is also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Cyclones have the secondary to match up with the Cowboys. Grabbing the +7 in this game is a must.

50* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR

Philadelphia Eagles -8

It's a very rare scheduling spot in the NFL but when it happens, I love to fade it. The Denver Broncos are playing their THIRD straight road game. What makes it even worse for Denver is that they are going from Los Angeles to Kansas City and now to Philadelphia, playing on a short week from Monday Night Football. This is a huge advantage for the Birds as they are playing their third straight HOME game and are plenty rested.

Brock Osweiler is getting the start for the Broncos. The only guy worse than this dude is Jay Cutler. Osweiler is SO bad that the CLEVELAND BROWNS are paying his salary (nearly $900,000) for this game against the Eagles. Think about that. A team that has been notoriously bad with QB play is PAYING you to play for different team. 

The Broncos are on a losing streak and they really aren't in a situation where they can afford to lookahead, but it's worth noting that they do have the New England Patriots on deck at home. 

FWIW, this is a fantastic teaser leg. I recommend the New Orleans Saints.

50* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

Alabama -21

I love the fact that Alabama was ranked #2. It's so obvious that this team is the best in the country and are the cream of the crop. Don't be fooled by the non-sense. I am REALLY hoping its a Georgia/Alabama SEC Championship and we will be BLASTING Bama minus the points. The disrespect of the #2 ranking is going to have this team playing with a huge chip on their shoulder. Add in the fact that Bama is coming off their bye week, where they are a perfect 4-0 ATS, I feel sorry for the LSU Tigers. I expect Nick Saban to open up a huge can of whoop ass on these boys. Typically when LSU plays Alabama, the spread is in the single digits. Now we have a 3 TD spread?! There's a reason for this guys. This Alabama defense is ferocious and it's nearly impossible to score in the double digits against these guys. What's even more impressive is their current play at home. In their home games this season, the Tide has scored 66, 45, and 41 three times. I expect this game to get ugly.

50* GT/Clemson MAX BET Parlay

Clemson -14

I know it's surprising for me to go against a triple option team but I believe this is the perfect spot to back the National Champs. We all know Clemson is coming off a loss but the key here is that they have had over two weeks to prepare, since they played on a Friday. I've always been a fan of backing the triple option teams when their opponents get them on a short week or just one week. However, I love to fade them when they go into their bowl game or teams have an extended period of time to prepare for them. The icing on the cake here is that it's Clemson and that fantastic defensive front.

How do you stop the triple option? Disrupt them right off the snap and Clemson has the big men on the DL to destroy the attack. The Tigers are also allowing only 13.6 points per game but just 7.5 at home. One of the toughest places in play in all of college football is Death Valley at night. I expect Clemson to just destroy GT by not allowing them to score and with GT having the rushing attack, it will take time off the clock and shortening the game, hence the under play as well.

40* NC State/Notre Dame BEST BET

NC State +7.5

We were on Notre Dame last week big but we'll be on NC State here for almost the same reasons. NC State (like Notre Dame last week) has two weeks to prepare for this game. Notre Dame played against their hated rival, USC, and put up the performance of the season. It's only natural for these guys to have a let down.

Even though FSU and Louisville are in down years, they were still ranked at the time NC State played them and the Wolfpack stepped up to the plate and took them out. This shows that this team does not back down and doesn't fear the big name program. I also love the fact that Notre Dame is just 6-14 ATS after a straight up win of 20 or more points. This shows that the Fighting Irish are usually over valued after a big win. Getting over the 7 is HUGE here and don't be surprised if this game comes right down to the wire.

40* NCAA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Kansas State -24

There are certain games I look forward to every year and this is one of them. You can almost blindly take Kansas State against their in-state rival, Kansas, and make a killing. KSU has covered the number in 17 of the last 22 meetings. The reason why we're going heavy this season is because KSU let Kansas get the backdoor cover last year. I am expecting KSU to lay a total beat down this time around because prior to that, KSU has won by an average of 33 points per game. I also like KSU here because they sit at 3-4 on the season. A dominating performance puts them back at 4-4 and still alive for a bowl bid.

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Denver Broncos +1

One of my favorite angles in the NFL is backing a team that laid a complete egg in primetime. The Denver Broncos got embarrassed on Sunday Night Football against the injury depleted Giants as 13 point favorites. Professional sports are all about motivation and if there is one team that has something to prove this week, it's the Denver Broncos. I also love the fact that this game is on the road. Usually when there are "problems" you want to get away from your home field to relieve some of the pressure. What makes this even better is that they're playing at the best place to play a road game in the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers have ZERO home field advantage. In all honestly, I think they have a negative HFA. 

Like I said in the promo, this is just our 2nd 50* on an underdog this season. The first...The Chargers on Monday Night Football Week 1, catching 3.5. I must admit, we did get lucky to cover that game as Denver pretty much owned the Chargers from the get go. I expect an inspired performance from the Broncos this week and all it takes is one big mistake from Philip Rivers. He'll lose his cool and the Broncos will run away with this game.

UPDATE: This line has climbed all the way to -2 at some spots. I would still play this game for 5% at -2 or less

40* NFL TOP PLAY SHOCKER

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I am expecting a let down here from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh just did the near impossible and beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Steelers have been the zig zag team of the year. They always follow a great performance with a crappy one. They're taking on a Bengals team that is fresh off their bye week. Cincy's offense has come alive since they made the switch of OCs and their defense has been lights out. They currently boast the #2 defense in the NFL. Bottomline here is that I still think there are severe locker rooms issues in Pittsburgh. It's one thing being an underdog with chemistry problems but when you're the favorite and you're expected to win, it's a whole different ball game.

UPDATE: This line has now dropped to 4 and even 3.5 in some spots. Try your best and get that +4. I would play for 3% under that.

40* USC/ND BEST BET

Notre Dame -3.5

Sorry for the late release but we have been waiting to see if we could get the 3 all week. We'll go ahead and play for 4% now.

There are three main factors for this selection. We have the obvious revenge angle for the Fighting Irish. The USC Trojans are DECIMATED by injuries right now, and Notre Dame has had the all important two weeks to prepare for this game. 

USC is 6-1 but they have been barely getting by week after week. Some of these final scores have been very misleading as the games were close throughout until the final few minutes. The problem with the Trojans is turnovers. They are FIFTH from the bottom in the FBS in turnovers! They have had at least two turnovers in each game this season. Guess which team is one of the best in the nation in turnover margin? Yup, its the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Like most games, turnovers play a huge part of who wins the game. I believe that a key turnover(s) will lead to the demise of the Trojans tonight. 

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

New Orleans Saints -4

There are certain teams/coaches you should always keep your eye on when coming off the bye week and you guessed it, the Saints are one of them. New Orleans is now 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games having the extra week to prepare.

People have forgotten about the Saints as they started off the season slow at 0-2. But when you look closer, they had a real tough game in Minnesota and they moved the ball well against that fantastic defense but they shot themselves in the foot too many times in goal to go situations and it cost them. They then had to take on Patriots in one of New England's best spots, off a loss. The Saints have now bounced back nicely with two straight wins and their defense is a big part of that. New Orleans has allowed just 1 TD since September 24th.

Another reason this is a great play is that the public is ALL over the Lions here. I love going against a public underdog. This reminds me a lot of the Bills game last week. The public ran to the window to get points with Buffalo against the Bengals (who also started out the season 0-2.) Well, the public got buried there and I expect them to go down in flames here as well. 

50* NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH

Georgia Tech +6

I LOVE this play and to be quite honest, this would have been a GOY but the last two times we labeled a play "game of the year" they've been complete train wrecks. But that's just semantics and we'll play this game for 5%.

This is a situational dream for a sports bettor. We have Georgia Tech coming into this game with two weeks to prepare, while the Hurricanes come off a miracle win against their ARCH rival. A let down is almost inevitable for the U. It's extremely tough to prepare for this triple option that Georgia Tech runs in just one week, especially after you play the biggest game of your season. Another positive for Tech is that heavy rain is in the forecast. It's going to be hard to throw the ball in the bad weather. This gives GT a huge advantage as this will be a battle of the rushers and that's what the Yellow Jackets do, they beat you on the ground. 

It's gone under the radar but these Yellow Jackets have been money making machines. They have now covered the number in 8 straight contests. That's the kind of team I want my money on and I'm betting that they make it 9 in a row Saturday.

40* NCAA UPSET SHOCKER

Rutgers +3

The world is lining up right now to take Illinois and what's even more surprising is that this line has dropped from -3.5 PASSED the key number of 3 to 2.5 in some spots. That's some serious money on the dog. Rutgers also is in a terrific bounce back spot after getting blanked two weeks ago against Ohio State. I believe this game means more to Rutgers as they always have a very tough time winning games in conference play, so when they have a game that is winnable in the Big 10, they go all out.

40* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

New York Jets +3.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are road favorites. Let me say that again. The JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS are road FAVORITES. Not only are they road favorites, they are laying OVER a field goal. The Jaguars haven't been road favorites in 44 games. What's even more surprising is that they are the most popular bet side right now at several shops.

This is a terrible spot for the Jags as they are returning home from London and they looked like world beaters against the Ravens. This team is prime for a letdown. As for the Jets, they played inspired ball last week and I look for that to carry over here. Remember, everyone wrote the Jets off this year. These players are playing like they have nothing to lose and that is a dangerous team to face.

50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

Vanderbilt +9

Yes, we did fade Vanderbilt last time out against Alabama and I knew that if the Tide "rolled" and Florida snuck by Kentucky this was going to be a TOP play on Vandy and it worked out perfectly.

The last two meetings between these two teams have been pure defensive dead locks. Last year Florida won 13-6 and the previous year Florida won 9-7. That's a combined 9 points. Now the Gators have to LAY that in this game?! One of the handicapping fundamentals of sports is you look towards taking the big points with a low total partly because if points are going to be really tough to come by, then it obviously makes it that much more difficult to cover the spread. 

Although Florida is a "winning" team at 2-1, this team is extremely lucky not to be 0-3. They were saved against Tennessee when their Hail Mary prayers were answered and they completed the miracle comeback against Kentucky last week, down 13 points. The Gators have been total money burner for backers lately. They have covered the number just twice in their last 11 home games and are 0-4 ATS at home against the Commodores. This number is only this high because of the beatdown Vanderbilt took last week. I look for a very inspired effort here from Vandy and this game should be tight throughout.

50* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR

Oakland Raiders -3

Most of my long term subscribers know this but I'm a Washington Redskins fan. I should say sort of a Skins fan. I do follow this team very closely. One thing I know for sure about this squad, is that you fade them when they play primetime games. That are an absolute laughing stock when playing under the lights. Yes this might be the "square" or "public" play but it all honesty, that doesn't matter when it comes to the Washington Redskins. This same thing happened last year on Monday Night Football when the Steelers were laying 3 at Fed Ex to the Skins. The Steelers absolutely crushed the Redskins. I expect a similar result here.

The Redskins defense, especially pass defense, has been borderline pathetic now for nearly a decade. I simply can't imagine what Derek Carr (who has done an excellent job at protecting the ball) is going to do to this soft secondary. To make matters worse for the Redskins, both teams are traveling from California this week. However, the Redskins were in a battle against a tough defense and their old offensive coordinator in LA. Whereas the Raiders had a "bye week" laying a beat down at home to the lowly Jets.

Getting this at a FG or less is a total bargain. I couldn't believe this even opened -2.5 at some shops. Picking the correct spots to bet against the Redskins is what I do. I believe this is going to be the best situation to go heavy against Washington and we'll make the Raiders our GOY.

Best of luck to us and thank you for being a customer. I truly appreciate it!

40* NCAA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Alabama -18.5

50* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

Louisville +3.5

This line truly doesn't make any sense to me. Louisville was 2 point ROAD favorites last season and now they are 3.5 point HOME underdogs. Clemson got worse and Louisville got better. Obviously there's the huge revenge angle for the Cardinals. A lot has been made about this Clemson defense recording 11 sacks last week but that was against a joke of a QB. How do you beat this Clemson team? A running QB. Bottomline, Dabo Swinney is just 1-8 ATS when a road favorite of 7 or less. 

40* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

Mississippi State +7.5

40* UCLA/Memphis TOP PLAY

Memphis +3.5

This has the makings of the public burial of the day. The UCLA Bruins are the most popular bet at nearly every shop I have spoken with this week. Everyone is lining up for some easy money. Not so fast my friend. Memphis has had two weeks to prepare for these Bruins (Memphis is a perfect 4-0 ATS following a bye week) and it's a dreadful spot for UCLA. This is going to be a 9 am start time for them. Also, the UCLA rush defense has been just awful to start the year, allowing nearly 7 yards per carry on the ground. UCLA is a miserable 0-7 ATS following a straight up win of 20+ points (shows that they are over valued the next week) and are 1-6 and 3-13 ATS in non conference play.

50* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5

I think the only thing Denver has going for them here is home field advantage. I believe that the Chargers are the better team. They are flying completely under the radar. I think there's serious trouble at the QB position for the Broncos. This new offense the Broncos are trying to run doesn't fit the mold of Siemian. They even went out and signed Brock Osweiler. Any team singing him is a desperate football team. 

The Chargers have always been a solid road team ATS and have done exceptionally well in Denver covering the number. Getting over a FG is the way to go.

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Tennessee Titans -1.5

This is the quintessential "Pros vs. Joes" game. The world is going to jump all over the Raiders catching points here. One of my favorite things to fade is when the public loves a road underdog. Typically, people want to bet the over and the favorite (hence WHY they are the favorite) so when the public loves the underdog, especially the ROAD dog, you jump all over the other side. 

When you talk to wiseguys and sports book operators, there's a unanimous hate for Oakland. The numbers just don't add up with them and they are due to take a step back (hence why we also like Oakland UNDER 10 wins.) This team had the worst defensive unit in yards per play last season and benefitted greatly from turnover luck. Even their point differential shows that this team was more like an 8-8 team than a 12-4 squad.

The Titans have now lost back to back years to the Oakland Raiders, so this give us our double revenge angle. When looking closer at last season's game, you will see that turnovers is what killed the Titans. They were able to gash Oakland on the ground and I believe they will do the same this Sunday. 

Bottomline here is that betting is a numbers game. There's a saying that I love "You don't bet sports, you bet numbers." Oddsmakers more often than not will tell you the right side of a game simply by what line they set. Now obviously it doesn't work like that every time because again, they do have to actually PLAY the game and you never know about injuries or ridiculous calls, but I strongly believe 9 out of 10 times, the Titans roll in their home opener.

50* Auburn vs. Clemson MAX BET

Auburn +6

40* NCAA Friday GAME OF THE WEEK

Ohio +4

Week 2 of College Football is one of my favorite weeks because of the over reactions of Week 1. Purdue played Louisville down to the wire at home and surprised a lot of people by easily covering the near 4 TD spread. Now they have a short week and have to get up for lowly Ohio. 

What tells a huge story is this current spread. 3.5's have popped up at several spots and "typical" home field advantage is 3 points. Oddsmakers are saying Purdue is nearly the same team as a MID MAJOR! The public has jumped all over the Boilermakers looking for some easy cash. However, the sharp bettors and market movers are ALL over the road dog here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio win this game outright.

50* MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

Georgia Tech +3.5

50* NCAA Football MAX BET

Florida Atlantic +10.5

Lots of things to like here about the Owls. It's typically a great bet to back these "lesser known" schools as home underdogs when they are playing under the lights in primetime. It's rare for them to get these games, so they get a big boost from the fans. 

Another key here is the triple option of Navy. For starters, they are breaking in a new QB on the ROAD which is always tough. Also, triple option teams do have the advantage when teams only have a week to prepare for them. FAU has had the entire summer to prepare for this attack.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Atlanta Falcons -5

The Atlanta Falcons offense at home is a freight train. I don't think anyone could stop them. They even scored 24 points on this Seattle defense IN Seattle, where it's nearly impossible to put up points and they should have had even more but the refs jobbed Julio Jones with a non call at the end. But there's a MONUMENTAL difference now. There is no Earl Thomas for Seattle. I believe his absence will show big time here. What's so impressive about this Falcons' offense is that they beat you both ways. They rank #3 in passing and #5 in rushing. You simply can't force them to play your way because they dominate both phases.

HFA (home field advantage) is obviously huge for this game. The knock on Seattle has always been playing away from home. They play exceptionally well in their building but they are vulnerable on the road. It showed again this year with another losing record on the season away from CenturyLink.

Will post some more thoughts later. Wanted to at least get this one out for you guys with a few notes.

40* NFL Saturday BEST BET

Seattle Seahawks -8

It's hard to believe but the Detroit Lions are attracting the most tickets than any team right now in the Wild Card Round. Well, what do we do when the public loves a team? We fade it. I'll gladly fade the Lions in this spot.

Detroit has limped into the Playoffs, losing 3 straight. You never want to back a team that is falling apart at the end of the season. They typically have quick exits. Detroit went from having possibly the #2 seed and a 1st Round Bye, then could have won the Division had a home playoff game and the #4 seed but instead, they are the #6 and have to play in the toughest place in the NFL, Seattle. Detroit is in big trouble here and is ripe for a letdown.

The Lions are in a terrible scheduling situation. This is their 3rd road contest in their last 4 games and they are playing their 3rd game in just 12 days. It doesn't get much worse than that. Actually, yes it does. The Lions haven't won a road playoff game since EISENHOWER was President (1957!)

Seattle comes into this game coming off their first and only home loss of the season. They have always been a great bet to bounce back at home. They have also won 9 straight home playoffs games with an average double digit margin of victory. This game has Seattle written all over it and to be perfectly honest with you guys, if this line was -7 or less, this would be a huge play for us. Still love this play for 4% laying under double digits and this is a great leg for all you teaser lovers out there. 

40* CFB VEGAS INSIDER

Auburn +3

50* One & Only CFB BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

Clemson +3.5

Total disrepect to the Tigers here. Wrong team favored. I don't think Ohio State is all that. If you watched the Michigan game, you know that the Buckeyes should not be playing in this game tonight. I expect Watson to have a huge game. All this guy does is win and you know he's got a big chip on his shoulder from not winning the Heisman. Remember, Clemson almost took out Alabama in the National Championship but it took a trick on-side kick to change the "tide" of that game. Bottom line here is experience and in the trenches. In big games like this you typically want to back the more experienced team and who dominates the line of scrimmage. Check Clemson. I believe there is a good chance we see a rematch of last year's National Title game.

50* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

Oklahoma State +3

Wrong team favored, in my opinion. A lot of what goes into handicapping bowl games is deciding what conferences are over-rated and under-valued. Well, I believe the Pac-12 is over-rated big time. Washington State looked awful against a sub-par Minnesota and Utah barely beat a weak Indiana club.

Colorado got exposed in the Pac-12 Championship game. The type of teams that gives Colorado fits are ones with offensive firepower and play-makers. That plays right into the hands of Oklahoma State. Another key advantage for the Cowboys is that this is their 11th straight bowl game and they will be extra motivated after a poor bowl showing last year. As for Colorado, these players are making their first bowl appearance. Jitters may cause them to make mistakes and blown assignments. Defensive Coordinator for the Buffaloes has left for Oregon and will not be there for the game. Just more proof that Oklahoma State is the right side here.

40*

Boston College +2

50* NFL Christmas MAX BET

Pittsburgh Steelers -5

The two main factors landing us on the Steelers is the obvious revenge angle for Pittsburgh (lost 4 straight in this series) and the fact that the Ravens have been a disaster away from home this season. The Ravens are just 1-5 ATS on the road this year (lost 5 straight) and these losses haven't been against the greatest competition. They lost outright to the Jets, barely won straight up against the Jags (lost ATS), and went down 20-0 to the Browns, but won 25-20. However, they failed to cover the number.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are arguably playing the best ball in the NFL right now. They have won 5 straight and what's so impressive about this is that they won 4 of these on the road. Big Ben is nearly unstoppable at home in December. The Steelers have covered the number in 13 of their last 16 in the final month of the season. This is a HUGE spot for the Steelers as they can clinch the division and knock their hated rivals out of the playoffs in the process. Look for the Steelers to take care of business at Heinz Field and if they do so, I expect this team to make a deep run in the post season. 

Injury update: As noted, this was going to be a 5% play if Jimmy Smith was ruled out. He is clearly their difference maker on defense. When he is playing, the Ravens are the #1 defense and #6 against the pass. With him out, Baltimore is the #27 defense and DEAD LAST (#32) against the pass!

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

It's never a bad thing to back a team that's on a winning streak. Tampa Bay is playing some of the best football in the entire league right now. During their 4 game win streak, they destroyed Chicago, did the near impossible by beating the Chiefs IN Kansas City, suffocated the Seahawks, and avoided almost a sure letdown and beat San Diego on the road. The Saints are polar opposite.

Besides sneaking out a win vs. Seattle at home, this team has beat up on a few cupcakes and that was it. They won an emotional home game against the Rams and trounced the dreadful 49ers. Last week was telling on who/what the Saints are as a football team. They were completely out played at home, which all but ended their hopes at the playoffs. They have to finish the season with 3 out of 4 on the road against TB, Arizona, and Atlanta. All I can say is "good luck." Some quit might come over these Saints players if they get down in this game. Part of why they are so bad is that dumpster fire secondary and defense. They might get embarrassed with how hot the passing attack is for Tampa Bay right now. 

This line is low because of the Bucs history at home against the number. However, this has given us solid value especially with this game being under a field goal. TB is getting hot at the right time. All signs point to buy on the Buccaneers and sell on the Saints.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Washington Redskins -1

As up to right now, this game is the Washington Redskins season. They lose this winnable game here and drop 3 in a row, stick a fork in them. However, they are right back in the thick of things with a strong performance Sunday. Washington is expected to have Jordan Reed and Trent Williams back for this game, which should give a huge boost to this already potent offense that ranks #2 in the NFL. The problem with the Skins is their defense but they are facing an Eagles offense that is stuck in the mud. After a hot 3-0 start, the Eagles have lost 7 of 9, 5 of 6, and 3 straight. Part of this is because Carson Wentz has regressed big time. His decision making has been horrendous and he is forcing balls into tight coverage. The Eagles have only scored 42 points COMBINED during their 3 game losing streak. 

If there was one game where the Redskins defense had their best game, it was against the Eagles. They had 5 sacks on Wentz and the Eagles didn't score an offensive TD (KO return and pick 6.) Washington has won 4 straight and covered 5 straight vs. the Eagles. The Skins are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

50* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR

Seattle Seahawks -7

Man, where do I even begin? For starters, Carolina is one of the worst bets on the road in the NFL. They are just 1-4 straight up this season away from Charlotte and have covered the spread twice in their last 9 road contests. For all this Panther bashing, we actually had Carolina last week on the road, but that was because of a TERRIBLE spot for Oakland and they (Carolina) still only managed to cover by the hook, when they should have won the game. After coming back and blowing the late lead, I feel as that was the straw that broke the camel's back on this Panther season. Yes, they still have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but they have to win out and it starts by having to win a back-to-back west coast road game at the toughest place to play in the game (Seattle) against the best defense in the league. Good luck with that. If they fall behind early and the crowd starts roaring, goodnight Carolina.

Seattle's weakness has always been the road and they proved that yet again with a real stinker at Tampa Bay. Russell Wilson had one of the worst games of his career and it had the feeling as if Seattle was simply looking past the Buccaneers. You know they are going to have a focused week of practice after that poor showing and they should bounce back nicely here. The Seahawks are an amazing 20-8 ATS following a straight up loss. Another angle I love about this game is that Seattle has playoff revenge. You always remember what team ended your season the year prior, and what better way to get back at them by blowing them out on your home turf.

50*

Indiana -18.5

40*

Tulsa -22

50* NFL Thanksgiving MAX BET 

Washington Redskins +7

Too much Cowboy love here. I am totally shocked the Redskins are getting a touchdown. This is a fierce rivalry. You see it constantly in these big rivalry games, especially in this series...no matter what their records are at the time, these games are always close and competitive.

The Cowboys win streak is overshadowing the fact the Redskins are on fire as well. Besides the first game of the season for the Skins, they have been in every ball game. They are now 6-1-1 since starting the season 0-2. Their 2nd game of the season against these Cowboys could have easily been a victory but Kirk Cousins' huge mistake in the end zone cost them that game. Since then, this Redskins offense has been on fire and they are protecting Cousins. Their offense is Top 3 in almost every category. I think the Redskins have an excellent chance of stealing this game outright and it looks like this contest is going to go down to the wire. The Cowboys win streak started against Washington, and I think it has a great chance to end here with the Redskins.

50* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +3

The Buffalo Bills have shown that when they are focused, they can play with anyone. Just look at what they did to the Patriots. Granted, Brady was absent, but they still managed to do the near impossible...SHUT OUT the mighty Patriots at home. This game for me is all about the ground. Buffalo's rushing attack can run on anyone. They are ranked #2 in the NFL with 155 yards a game going up against the Bengals 24th ranked run defense. The Bills impressed the hell out of me going into Seattle and running all over that stout defense of the Seahawks. It was a tough loss but now they get the bye week and the extra time to prepare. This is just like what we explained with the NFC GOM on the Redskins that cashed. It's a good bet to back teams that went into the bye off a loss rather than a win. The Bengals look like the wheels are falling off after that tough beat on Monday Night Football (short week for them) and Marvin Lewis' time looks all but over in Cincinnati. 

50* CFB Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR

West Virginia +3

Morgantown WV, under the lights, in Primetime. This place is going to go ballistic. HFA alone in this game should be worth 4 points minimum. So Oklahoma is a touchdown better than the Mountaineers? I don't think so. Without question, West Virginia has the best defense in the Big 12. They haven't allowed more than 21 points at home all year. They have allowed more than that (21) twice all season in all of their games.

This is typical Oklahoma and Bob Stoops. He ALWAYS finds a way to screw things up in big games and one mistake is all it will take for this ridiculous crowd to go crazy and for all the momentum to swing. Oklahoma plays ZERO defense and in games in the Big 12, its usually back and forth offensively, so who's defense can make that big play wins the game. Well, Oklahoma allowed 46 to TCU and 59 to TTU. WVU allowed 10 to TCU and 17 to TTU. Let me give that to you again. 27 combined points to TCU AND TEXAS TECH, where Oklahoma allowed 105! The Sooners also come off a blowout victory over Baylor and OU has lost 4 straight, against the number, after winning by 20+ points. Looks like they're in for a bit a letdown too.

We got the much better defense, the home field advantage, and we're GETTING points?! I'll take that all day.

40*

Charlotte +4.5

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Washington Redskins -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings are in a downward spiral. They undoubtably have the worst offense in the NFL. Their line play is atrocious, as they average 2.7 yards per carry on the ground and just 4.7 yards per play, which is worst in the NFL. The Washington Redskins are the 2nd best team in the NFL on yards per play at 6.2 on offense. The Skins weakness is their rush defense but the Vikings run game is so pathetic that the Skins can over come this in the other phases of the game and since Minnesota is so inept on the ground.

The Redskins are also coming off the bye week. They entered the bye coming off a loss and a tie. I love taking teams going into the bye week on a bad note (loss/tie) rather than off a win. Team's going in off a loss/tie, give that extra effort in preparation. We see it all the time when teams go into the bye on a winning note, they are flat the next week. Just look at the Vikings this season. They were on fire going into the bye week and haven't won since. 

This may be a little "coulda, shoulda, woulda" but the Skins could easily be 7-1, at least 6-2. They had a 17-13 lead against the Lions with 50 seconds left and it took Matthew Stafford heroics (with Norman out) to win that game. They then missed a chip shot FG in OT vs. the Bengals to win the game and a Kirk Cousins brainfart in the end zone cost them against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter. Bottomline here is that this team is better than their 4-3-1 record and Minnesota is worse than their 5-3 record.

40*

South Florida -3

40*

40*

New England Patriots -5

40* CFB Top Play PARLAY

Mississippi (Ole Miss) +5

40* CFB VEGAS INSIDER

Wake Forest -7

The key here is Wake Forest having two weeks to prepare for the triple option attack of Army. Wake Forest has had great success defending the triple option. They held Tulane's to only 3 points to begin the season. WF has covered 8 of their last 11 following the bye week where Army has lost 7 of their last 29 facing a team coming off the extra week to prepare. Wake Forest hasn't lost to Army in nearly 30 years and have won 7 straight home meetings.

40* CFB Top Play PARLAY

Iowa State +7

40*

Colorado +1.5

Colorado is the only team left in the nation that is undefeated against the spread (7-0.) All my close sources have the Buffaloes winning this one outright. Stanford's offense is the 8th worst in the country and they only average 19 points. Stanford is banged up and their defense has been getting gashed at times. Colorado has the 2nd ranked Pac-12 offense and 14th ranked in the nation. 

40*

North Texas +18

4* NFL BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -4

The Dallas Cowboys had their huge statement game last week against the Bengals. Dallas is a solid football team but now is the time to sell them this week. Their stock is high as ever right now and this line is too low. Let's not forget that the Cowboys have failed to covered the spread in 6 straight games facing a team with a winning record.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are close to unstoppable at home. A big reason is that rush defense. They haven't allowed more than 50 yards in a game, are allowing only 1.99 yards a carry, and have allowed just 171 yards through 4 games. That's insanely good. This is going to force the Cowboys to throw the ball and this is where Dak could finally make a mistake. Dez Bryant being absent is going to have a noticeable effect here.

A little inside info for you guys (that hasn't been really covered on sports media outlets) is that Lambeau Field plays different than most fields. They have a special type of grass there which makes it difficult to jump off the line of scrimmage and get your footing. This make a WORLD of difference for defensive lineman. That half second jump time is the difference between a sack and a deep TD to Jordy Nelson. There's a reason Rodgers is superhuman at home and is very tough to sack.

5* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Kansas City Chiefs +1.5

Andy Reid off the bye week. He is 15-2 straight up and 12-5 against the spread. It's also a GREAT situational bet to back a team that goes into the bye week off an ugly loss. The last thing everyone remembers about the KC Chiefs is that embarrassing beatdown against the Steelers in primetime. KC has now had two weeks to stew over that defeat and prepare for the Raiders. They should come out focused and fired up.

Oakland is over-valued now. They have been fortunate to win some of these games and definitely should have lost last week against the Chargers, but the Chargers did what they always do, and shot themselves in the foot. Oakland is known for choking when they are supposed to win. This team has been as bad as it gets as the favorite. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS laying points and are 35-68 ATS at home.

4* CFB VEGAS INSIDER

Northern Illinois +2.5

Sources love the home dog here. Huge money has made this game drop from the key number of 3. CMU is 4-2 and Northern Illinois is 1-5 but this game is lined basically at pick? Nothern Illinois has had CMU's number, covering 7 of the last 9 meetings. 

4* 

San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are known for choking when they are expected to win. This team has been awful as a favorite. They are 7-22 ATS laying points and are 35-67 ATS at home. The underdog has covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings between these two. If San Diego didn't fall apart in the 4th quarter, the Chargers would be undefeated. I know that's a lot of "shoulda, coulda, woulda" but it shows that this team is better than their 1-3 record and certainly should not be over FG underdogs.  

5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3.5

LOVE the Ravens to bounce back after their first loss of the season. Baltimore should own this Redskins defense. The Skins have a Bottom 3 defense. It is just awful. Washington is the WORST team on 3rd down this year, giving up nearly 9 yards a play. The Ravens are the 2nd BEST. More often than not, Football really comes down to two things; How you perform on 3rd down and turnovers. Well, the Redskins can't stop anyone on 3rd down, where the Ravens are getting off the field and Kirk Cousins is one of the most turnover prone QBs in the game. 

4*

Idaho +5

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Houston Texans -4

This line has dropped too much now and its time to strike. This opener was 7 and then the news came out about JJ Watt and it started to fall. We know JJ Watt is one of, if not, the best defensive players in the league. However, he isn't worth 3 points. He is worth 1 point MAX. He is a beast at the line of scrimmage but he isn't a QB or even a middle linebacker (who quarterbacks the defense.) Furthermore, I love backing teams when their star player is out. This works exceptionally well in the NBA also. It gives the players that extra motivation and they rally around eachother to pick up the slack. 

Everyone's last memory of the Texans is that awful performance they gave against the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Knee jerk reaction is that this team is terrible because they couldn't beat a 3rd string QB. The Texans have had 10 days to stew on that loss and it's usually a great bet to back a team off of their worst loss of the season. Just look the Rams. They were being called the "Worst team in the NFL" after their 28-0 primetime defeat against San Francisco. The Rams took out the Seattle Seahawks the next week and are now 2-1 on the season.

The Houston Texans have owned the Tennessee Titans and they have done it without a stud QB. Houston has covered 5 straight against Tennessee. They also are 20-8 ATS after scoring 2 TDs or less in their previous game. As for the Titans, this team has been the worst bet for several years now. In the past 3 and a half years, the Titans have covered the spread only 14 times. The are also just 3-21-3 in the AFC South division. 

5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

PLEASE READ:

There are two ways to attack this game. If you can't get the 3, buy the hook. Also recommend parlaying Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline with Miami Dolphins moneyline.

I have the Steelers as the 2nd best team in the NFL right now, behind the Patriots. This offense is the real deal and their defense has been stifling the first two weeks. One of my simple rules in the NFL is who has the better QB and who has the better coach. Well, Pittsburgh has both of them by a landslide. 

The Eagles and Wentz are getting way too much hype right now. I will admit, they did burn us on Monday Night, but I believe that game was lost by Jay Cutler (usually is) than Wentz winning the game. The Eagles only averaged 4 yards a play in that game. That will not get it done. They also benefitted from short fields due to turnovers. Think about who Philly has beaten. They won at home against the worst team in the league (Cleveland) and then beat arguably the 2nd worst team in the league, the Bears.

This is a monumental mismatch in all 3 phases of the game. I even say special teams because the Eagles had a horrific gaff (punting in the middle of the field on max protection) on a punt vs. the Bears that lead to a TD.

Even though this is a home game for the Eagles, the spots favors the Steelers. Pittsburgh played at home last week and going to Philadelphia is right in their back yard, so no travel issues there. The Eagles are playing on the short week, since they played MNF, and the Eagles are 0-5 ATS the following Sunday after playing Monday Night Football.

The Eagles true colors will show this Sunday. If they somehow take this one from the mighty Steelers, then I will be a true believer. However, I am expecting this game to get ugly. Barring turnovers, there isn't ANY reason why the Steelers don't punish the birds.

5* Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH

Iowa -13

It's no secret on why we are taking Iowa here. This team just got beat by FCS, North Dakota State, on their home turf. This team HAS to bounce back. Iowa has been stellar on the road, against the number, in recent years. Iowa is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games, which includes a perfect 10-0 as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes still have a monster defense that will make it very difficult for the Rutgers offense to have any success.

I have Rutgers as one of the worst teams in the nation. This team fell behind 21-0 to NEW MEXICO! (I do like an Iowa 1st Half bet also for this game.) The Scarlet Knights have always been the doormat for the stellar Big 10 teams to lay a beat down. I could honestly list all these games but go ahead and look up recent performances of Rutgers against OSU, MSU, PSU, Michigan, etc. They have been DESTROYED! Under 2 touchdowns is cheap here and as long as the Hawkeyes are at least half awake, they cruise.

4* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

Utah -3

The key here is home field advantage. The home team has won the last 5 meetings against the spread. Also, Utah plays in the altitude which is a big time factor. Visiting college kids always have a tough time adjusting to the thin air and it always shows in the 2nd half. USC has had it's problems in the higher elevation (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, etc.) and has covered just once in their last 5 games played in the altitude. The Trojans are just 7-20 ATS on the road as well.

USC has had a BRUTAL schedule and it has taken its toll. This team is starting to break down. Add in the fact that this offensive line is struggling and their starting a new QB...this could be a disaster. Utah's defensive front is fierce and ranks #2 in the Nation in sacks. 

I'd also like to add that this team chemistry has go to be shot right now for the Trojans with the reports swirling around a player punching a coach. Can't be good for morale.

4* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Carolina Panthers -13.5

From a situational stand point, this is a great spot for the Panthers and a terrible spot for the 49ers. The Panthers come off a tough loss on Thursday Night where the 49ers come off an impressive shutout victory on Monday Night. Immediate knee jerk reaction is that the Panthers might not be as good and that the 49ers are better than we thought. 

San Francisco did this exact thing on Monday Night Football Week 1 of last year, destroying the Vikings, but still ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL. Well what did the 49ers do in Week 2? They got CRUSHED by the Steelers 43-18. The Steelers were also coming off a loss in Week 1 and played their home opener in Week 2, just like the Panthers do this season. I expect a similar result here. SF played on the short week (since it was MNF) and had to travel to the East Coast. The Panthers have had since Thursday to prepare off their heartbreaking loss and will no doubt want to lay a beat down to SF at home. 

Don't be fooled, the 49ers are still a bad team. If they get down early in this game, Goodnight San Francisco. They don't have the type of offense to scramble from behind, especially against this ferocious defense of the Carolina Panthers.

5* Ohio State/Oklahoma MAX BET

Oklahoma +1.5

This line is a severe over-reaction. When "Games of the year" lines were posted back in July, the Oklahoma Sooners were touchdown favorites against the Ohio State Buckeyes. After two games into the young season, they are now 1.5/2 point underdogs. This is too big of an adjustment. This line has also made history as this is the first time in 16 years that the Oklahoma Sooners are underdogs at home. That should tell you something. Obviously this line has moved because of the loss they suffered against Houston in Week 1. Houston is a great team however. They also had the advantage of all off-season to prepare for Oklahoma so I will give the Sooners a pass on that one.

I will say this, Saturday's game is the season for the Sooners. If they lose this game, forget the playoffs. Oklahoma will move right back into the post-season picture with a win here. Now, I'm not going to say this game doesn't mean the same for Ohio State, but Ohio State can lose this game and they'll still be alright. If they lose but win out (including beating Michigan) and they'll be in the playoff.

Ohio State did crush Tulsa last week but they looked terrible in the first half. Dane Evans handed them 2 pick six touch downs in the final 5 minutes. The 2nd one was mind-blowing, where he or the coach decided to throw in a monsoon, instead of going into the half down 13-3. Now its 20-3, all their momentum was gone and they quit in the 2nd half. Before Evan's idiocracy, it was 6-3. Ohio State's offense only managed 6 points against Tulsa! Not having a lot of returning starters showed in that ball game for the Buckeyes. 

Bottomline is that this is the Sooners season. The players know it and maybe more importantly, the fans know it. Norman Oklahoma should be live and loud Saturday. Look for Oklahoma to keep their playoff hopes alive.

4* CFB Vegas Insider 

Appalachian State +3.5

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3

This one comes down to 4 major factors. Baltimore has the better QB, the better head coach, they are at home, and are looking to bounce back from one of the worst seasons in franchise history. I think the Ryan brothers are as over-rated as it gets, especially Rob Ryan. The big problem with the Ryan regime is discipline. Rex Ryan's teams have always been highly penalized on the field. You simply cannot afford to make dumb penalties on the road. All it takes is one personal foul or unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to extend a drive that allows the crowd to go berserk and it will give ALL the momentum to the home team.

Everyone is all over Tyrod Taylor this year. Even the TV show "Ballers" talks about how "great" he is at quarterback. I'm not buying it. I think he will regress this season. Let's not forget, Tyrod was on the Ravens for a good portion of his career, so they should know his tendencies pretty well. Bottomline here is that the Bills are still the Bills (the team that seems like they lose on purpose) and the Ravens are the team that are always in the playoff picture. Ravens roll at home.

4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Chicago Bears +6

5* CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Tulsa +29

This number is inflated due to the drubbing Ohio State put on Bowling Green last week. We did have the Buckeyes in that one and I knew if they took care of business, we were going to fade them here. Ohio State has a HUGE game on deck against the Oklahoma Sooners. 

I like Tulsa because they can definitely put up some points. They have former Baylor OC calling the plays, so they can score with anyone in the country. 4+ touchdown is a lot to give a team with a high powered offense. The Golden Hurricane has been fantastic against the number as well. They have covered 5 straight non-conference games and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Look for Tulsa to keep it much closer than expected.

5* CFB UNDERDOG MAX BET

Massachusetts (UMass) +17 

Getting this one out now before it goes lower than 17. Make sure to get the 17.

What makes taking the points so special in this game is the fact that the total is set very low. At post this total was 41, but now has crept down to 39. Points are going to be tough to come by in this game and it's going to take a gigantic effort from an anemic BC offense, in a bad spot, to even score that many, let alone cover these points.

Boston College returns from Dublin without a week off for yet another road/neutral game. Terrible scheduling spot for them to prepare. The NFL finally woke up and gave the teams traveling to London a week off the following week, but not the NCAA. UMass played Florida to a 10-7 score through 3 quarters last week before losing 24-7. Florida is hands down a better team than Boston College and Massachusetts only lost by 17 IN Florida. If that game is any indication, then The Minutemen should easily stay inside this number Saturday.

5* NFL Thursday Night Football MAX BET

Carolina Panthers -3

There's one simple rule for me when handicapping the NFL. Who's got the better QB and who has the better Coach. Well, CLEARLY Carolina has the better QB. The Broncos are in some real trouble at the quarterback position. I know they do have one of, if not, the best defenses in the game. but Carolina's defense is pretty darn good as well. The Denver defense isn't going to matter a whole lot when they're turning the ball over deep in their own territory. Cam Newton gets the monster 6 foot 6 Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin back for this game. This is going to really open up this already potent attack.

I get the whole story about the Super Bowl hangover and the Super Bowl losers doing terribly ATS, but I believe this year is different. This is the first time the Super Bowl winner will have a change at QB in 15 years. Huge revenge angle here for Carolina. We know the Panthers only had 1 loss last year (besides the Super Bowl) and how did they respond...by covering the spread by 18 points. Rivera has always done well following a loss. This team also dominates when they are listed as the favorite. Since 2013, only the Vikings and the Packers have better winning percentages as a favorite than the Panthers do. Carolina also averages beating those spreads by nearly 5 points a game. 

Bottomline here is that Carolina is going to stack the box and make whoever starts for them (Denver) at QB to beat them through the air. As long as the Panthers don't get bit by the injury or turnover bug in this game, they cruise to a 7+ point victory.

(Still have a couple weeks before the season starts. Make sure to check back before game day to see if there are any added updates.)

**Trevor Siemian is starting at QB. Who knows, this guy could come out and become the next Tom Brady but I highly doubt it. He was awful his senior year at Northwestern. He completed just over 50% of his passes, had 11 INTs, and just 7 TDs. He also averaged just 5 YARDS PER PASSING ATTEMPT! At the end of the day, I realize this might be the "square" or "public" play, but how does a hungry Cam Newton looking to bounce back from his worst performance ever in the Super Bowl, not beat (what I'm calling) "The WORST starting QB for a defending Super Bowl Champion...of ALL TIME"

5* NCAA UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

South Alabama +31.5

Play for 4% at 28.5

4* FS1 TOP PLAY

Kansas State +16

It's always smart to back one of the best college coaches of all time, Bill Snyder, when he is catching points. He is 20-6 ATS his last 26 times as the underdog which includes 10 outright upsets. Frankly, this is too many points for a Stanford team to lay that has to replace their 4 year QB starter. They have said that they will be trying out two quarterbacks for this game, so this will hurt the rhythm of the offense and that's never a good thing when you have to win by 3 possessions to cover the spread. Bottomline here is that Bill Snyder has had the entire offseason to prepare for this game. This should be a grind it out type of game for both squads and we'll take the generous points every time in those match-ups.

50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -4.5

The headline of this game is that the Chiefs are hot and the Patriots are cold. KC has won 11 straight games now and New England has lost 2 straight. I do agree that the Chiefs have been playing well but they haven't played any competition. Just look at the Wild-Card game against the Texans. The final score was very misleading. This game was only 13-0 going in the 4th quarter and the lone TD was the opening kickoff return for a touchdown. If Bryan Hoyer wasn't a complete and utter failure that game could have been a lot closer. Alex Smith missed a few throws and two were huge. One was a walk in TD from deep and another was an INT right after Hoyer threw one. What do you think he'll do against the New England Patriots? I will admit however, we we're on the Chiefs in that game so we were happy with the outcome but I knew we were going to fade them if they drew New England this week.

Do you remember the last time these two teams met? Well if you don't, The Chiefs beat the living crap out of them on primetime at Arrowhead. All the talking heads said "BENCH BRADY and this is the end of the New England Patriots!" Look what they did after that. They won the Super Bowl! This team knows how to get motivated and they have the best coach in the business. New England simply does not lose 3 games in a row. Getting the extra week off was huge for this team as they needed to get healthy with some much needed rest. Hightower, Edelman, and Vollmer are back for this game and that his huge, especially LT Vollmer and Edelman, to drastically help Tom Brady and this offense. What Belichick does is he takes away what you do best. This is where the injury of Maclin will hurt dramatically. It is not certain that he will play, but even if he does, he will not be close to 100%. Reid has confirmed that he will be out of practice for the week but will still play even if he can't practice. Let me say that again, not practice the week you play the Patriots. There all also other key Chiefs sitting out of practice (Houston, Hali, Morse, and Duvernay-Tardif.)

Bottomline here is that the Patriots are the playoff experts and the Chiefs have been awful in the post-season. KC finally got the monkey off their backs with their first playoff win since forever but now are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 playoff games. Kansas City could be in for a bit of a letdown here.   The New England Patriots are just flat out unstoppable at Gillette Stadium and I fully expect them to advance to the Conference Championship.

40*

Kansas City Chiefs -3

Getting this one out now before it goes to -3.5 or higher

A money-line parlay with the Seattle Seahawks could be a solid option as well for 1% or 2%.

Yes, this is a very square play but I don't care. I just simply can't make a case for the Texans. The KC Chiefs are on fire, winners of 10 in a row. What's even more impressive is that they won all 4 of their road games and scored a ton of points during that span. The level of competition these two teams have played is a telling sign also. KC took out Pittsburgh, Denver, and Oakland twice. The Texans played in a complete joke of a division and beat up on bottom feeders. They did, however, beat 2 teams with winning records but TJ Yates was the QB. 

Bottomline here is that the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league and the Texans have a very mediocre offense. All this talk about the Texans defensive front but the Chiefs are in the top 5 in the NFL in sacks. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games in Houston and I expect them extend that streak to 5-1 here.

50* New Year's Day MAX BET

Michigan -4

I'll make this one short and sweet. Michigan comes off a extremely embarrassing loss to their arch-rivals. They've had a very long time to think about that and I think they come out extra motivated to prove their worth. You know John Harbaugh will have these kids ready. I'm sure he wants to win his first bowl game for Big Blue BADLY! 

The Wolverines are just a much better team than Florida. They do both have great defenses but man, that Florida offense is just pathetic. It seems that if the Gators give up more than 14-17 points, they're toast. Hard not to see Michigan pulling away from this team in the 2nd half after the Florida defense gets tired legs.

50* One & Only BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

Houston +7

Personally, I think Houston can win this game outright. A huge factor in handicapping Bowl games is motivation. You almost always want to back the team that is happy to be in a particular bowl that exceed expectations rather than a team that had higher aspirations that couldn't care less about a meaningless bowl. That's what we have here. Florida State wanted to be in the playoff not the Chick-Fil-A bowl. Everett Golson is also ruled out for this game and I expect a lot of FSU players to be tuned "out" also. 

Just look at the stats between these two clubs. Houston feast off turnovers and they lead the nation in margin. They no doubt will cause a few in this one, especially with the back up QB. Most know that FSU has a solid defense but what most don't is that Houston has a great one as well. They are right behind in defensive rankings. A HUGE stat for these teams is the all important 3rd down. The Cougars convert over half of their 3rd downs but the Seminoles covert just over a third of theirs. 

Bottomline here is that one team struggles in games played at a neutral site as the other excels. Houston has covered 6 of their last 8 as FSU hasn't covered in any of their last 5. Look for the Cougars to shock a lot of people here tonight.

40* NCAA TOP PLAY PARLAY

Southern California (USC) -3.5

50* NCAA TOP PLAY PARLAY

North Carolina (UNC) +3

I know this line is now at -3. We released this one early but it's still a great play up to -3. I liked UNC to win by more than an FG anyway when the line was at +3. 

This one is pretty simple for me. Baylor is ravaged with injuries and they are deflated. Their defense is not very good and I don't see them being highly motivated for this match up as they had National Championship aspirations. Bowl games are about motivation and we have a Tar Heel team that should be highly motivated after being robbed against Clemson. UNC has covered 4 straight after a spread loss and Baylor has covered just one game in their last 6. The Tar Heels are very good at on both sides of the ball with the "big play" and that should be the key for a UNC victory here.

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER OF THE YEAR

New York Jets +3.5

Everyone and their mother is going to line up to bet the New England Patriots to basically just win the game. Already 70% of the tickets are on the Pats but this line could drop below the key number of 3. New England has a first round bye locked up and are ravaged with injuries. The Jets are in the playoff hunt right now and they need this game like blood. We already know both these teams don't like each other but what most people don't realize is that New York has covered the number in 5 straight meetings between these two. New England also hasn't covered the spread in 5 straight games facing a team with a winning record. All of my sources LOVE the Jets here and all of them are expecting an outright Jet victory.

40* NCAA VEGAS INSIDER

Indiana -2.5

40* TOP PLAY PARLAY PACK

Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

I'll make this one short and sweet. This line is a total overreaction to the injury to Andy Dalton. He's not as big a factor to the offense as let's say, Aaron Rodgers. AJ McCarron has a ton of weapons around him and they have great success running the ball which will take a lot of pressure off him. The Bengals defense is why this team is successful. Look at what Johnny Manziel did to this 49ers defense and look what the 49ers did to the Browns defense. Exactly. As long as Aj protects the ball today, Bengals blowout.

40* TOP PLAY PARLAY PACK

Green Bay Packers -3

For all intents and purposes, this is a bigger game for the Packers. They still have a shot for a first round bye if they can get passed the Raiders here and defeat Arizona next week. But a loss here could really hurt their chances for the division crown. It looks like Green Bay has turned a corner with Mike back calling the plays. They are really focusing on the run and it they torched the Cowboy defense and that Cowboy D is for real. 

Oakland comes off a huge win to the rival Broncos and they have another division game on deck Thursday Night against the Chargers. This is a tough spot for Da Raiders. If Green Bay plays up to their potential, this should be a blowout.