Virginia Tech at NC – after stumbling in week 2 versus Tennessee the Hokies rebounded with two solid wins over BC and East Carolina. They were off last week to get ready for this trip to Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are riding a 4-game winning streak with two close wins over Pittsburgh and last week upsetting Florida State on the road. Last year NC won this contest on the road 30-27 but failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This game opened with NC as a 3.5-point favorite and with their big win last week the public is all over the Tar Heels. However, the line has dipped to 2 or even 1.5-points at some books. We like Virginia Tech to win this one outright. Play on Virginia Tech.

Texas State at Georgia State – this is a Sun Belt conference between two of the lower level squads. Texas State is 2-2 on the season while Georgia State is unbeaten. However, there’s been a big difference in the level of competition with Georgia State playing a much tougher schedule. Last year Georgia State won this matchup by 22 points and we see a similar result this time. Georgia State opened as a 8.5 point favorite and it was quickly bet up to 10 points. Lay the points. Play on Georgia State.

Dallas at SF – the Cowboys have ridden their rookie QB Prescott to a 2-1 record. Last week he was able to beat Chicago at home 31-17 after winning in Washington the week before. The Niners are back home after two tough road games at Carolina and Seattle, both losses. In their lone home game of the season they shutout the Rams 28-0. Dallas opened as a field goa favorite and due to their 2 game winning streak the public has jumped on the Cowboys. However, the line has dropped. There aren’t any 3’s out there. We look for the Niners to get another home win. Play on San Francisco 49ers.

Carolina at Atlanta – the Panthers got spanked last week at home by Minnesota 22-10 losing as 5.5-point underdogs. Carolina can’t hold on to the football as they turned it over 3 times, and now have 7 turnovers in the last 2 games. Atlanta is back home after back-to-back road wins at Oakland and last Monday Night at New Orleans. Matt Ryan has been lighting up opposing defenses completing 70% of his passes for 312 yards per game. Most bettors are expecting Carolina to bounce back today as they have attracted a ton of bets. However, the Panthers are now only a 3-point favorite after opening as a 3.5-point choice. We’re taking the Falcons at home. Play on Atlanta.

Detroit at Chicago – the Lions opened with a win at Indy but have since dropped back-to-back games. Meanwhile the Bears are still looking for their first win. Chicago has also been a very good team to play against as they have failed to cover in any of their 3 games. The books opened this game with the Lions as a 3-point favorite and they can’t find anyone to take the winless Bears. However, despite writing all Detroit money they have moved the line. In fact, a couple of books have dropped the number down to 2.5-points. We like the Bears to get a win. Play on Chicago.

Arizona State at USC – in this game you have an undefeated Arizona State at 4-0 versus a disappointing USC squad at 1-3. However, the Trojans are 10-point favorites! Arizona State comes into this game after whipping Cal last week 51-41. Their offense can score as they are putting up 48 points per contest. Meanwhile, USC hasn’t played very well so far. Last week they lost at Utah 31-27 and that was after losing at Stanford 27-10. On paper this game looks like an overlay. The bettors jumped on the points as ASU has attracted a large percentage of the wagers. However, the line has moved from USC being a 8-point favorite up to double digits. We’re laying the points. Play on USC.

NC at Florida State – after an opening week loss to Georgia the Heels have won 3 straight. Last they got a scare from Pittsburgh surviving a 37-36 win. For the Canes they rebounded from their lopsided loss to Louisville to win at S. Florida 55-35. Florida State has grabbed all of the money offshore attracting 70% of the action. However, the line has dropped from the opener of Florida State -12 down to 10.5 points. We like NC to keep this game close. Play on North Carolina.

Wake Forest at NC State – the Deacons come into game with a perfect 4-0 record. Last week they went into Big 10 country and upset Indiana 33-28 as 7-point dogs. NC State comes in at 2-1 and they had last week off to get ready for this game. They’re only blemish was a 33-30 loss at East Carolina. The last two seasons NC State has drilled Wake by an average of 23 points and we see a similar result this time. This game opened with NC State being a 9-point dog and the squares have jumped on the dog. However, the smart money and our money is on NC State. The line has jumped up to 11.5 at some books but you might be able to find a 10.5. Play on North Carolina State.

Tom Grassi NFL Winner - 49ers/Seahawks

San Francisco at Seattle - The Books opened Seattle as 10 point home favorites and despite over 58% of the action coming in on San Fran the line has moved up to 11 at a few offshore books. Both teams are 1-1 moving into week 3 and Seattle has not cashed a win at the betting window. This week we expect that to turn around with the Seahawks scoring their first ATS win.  The 49ers defense is slacking, giving up 46 points to Carolina last week and we expect the Seahawks to bounce back with a solid performance this week after that 9-3 loss to the Rams. Seattle has a perfect 4-0 ATS record against San Fran over the last three years and we expect that trend to continue.

Play on Seattle

Tom Grassi NCAAF Disrespected Team!

BYU at West Virginia – BYU travels to east to take on the Mountaineers. The Cougars are riding a 2-game losing streak off two tough losses at Utah 20-19 and at home to UCLA 17-14. They did get the money in both losses. West Virginia opened with a win at Missouri and beat Youngstown State 38-21. Last week W VA was off. This game opened with W VA a 5-point favorite but the line has been bet up to a touchdown. However, the majority of the money is on the Cougars. No respect for the Mountaineers. We’re backing them as we have W VA scoring a double digit win.

Play on West Virginia.

Tom Grassi NCAAF Early Bird Value Winner!

Wisconsin at Michigan State – after opening with that big win over LSU the Badgers had scored two additional wins. However, last week they got caught looking ahead to this matchup squeaking past Georgia State 23-17. Meanwhile, Michigan State went to South Bend and upset the Irish last week 36-28 as 7-point dogs. This game opened with Michigan State a 6-point favorite but despite attracting the majority of the money the line has dipped down to 5-points. This will be a very close game with Wisconsin winning not  a big surprise.

Play on Wisconsin.

Tom Grassi MNF Value Winner!

Philadelphia at Chicago – the Eagles opened the season with new QB Wentz by beating the Browns. The Eagles took advantage of a weak Browns defense as they put up 133 yards rushing and 270 yards passing. Not bad for an offense with a rookie QB. The Eagles defense also played pretty well holding the Browns to under 300 yards of offense. For the Bears opening week didn’t go very well as they lost at Houston. Chicago’s offense struggled against a pretty good Houston defense netting only 258 total yards. They couldn’t keep Cutler upright as their offensive line allowed five sacks. The line for this game opened with the Bears as a 1-point favorite but it’s been bet up to Chicago laying a field goal. This move is despite the money being relatively even on the game. We look for the Bears to win their home opener tonight.

Play on Chicago.

Grassi’ Sunday Night NFL - Packers vs. Vikings Winner!

Green Bay at Minnesota – the Packers and Vikings play on Sunday Night in Minnesota. The Packers struggled in their opener winning at Jacksonville 27-23. The Vikings scored a road win as well beating Tennessee 25-16. This week the Vikings turn the QB job over to Sam Bradford. Last year these two teams split both winning on the road. However, we look for that to change this year with the Vikings scoring a home win over the Packers. The Packers are the most highly bet team on the NFL board this week and we believe they’re going to disappoint their backers. The Minnesota defense will be the difference. Take the home dog Vikings.

Play on Minnesota.

Tom Grassi NFL Early Game Winner!

Baltimore at Cleveland – the Ravens opened with a lackluster 13-7 home win over Buffalo. The Ravens defense was the difference as they held Buffalo to a total of 160 total yards. The Browns, under new coach Jackson, looked awful in their opening week loss to the Eagles 29-10. RG III started but was knocked out of the game and most likely for the season. Josh McCown takes over and quite frankly will be an improvement. These two teams played two close games last season and in fact the Browns scored a win over the Ravens. Baltimore opened as a 6.5-point favorite and due to the Browns performance last week the bettors have jumped on the Ravens. However, the line has dropped at some offshores to 6 or 5.5-points. Look for the Browns to play better this week at home. Take the points.

Play on Cleveland.

Tom Grassi Non-Conference Game of the Year!

LA Tech at Texas Tech – the Bulldogs come into Lubbock with a 1-1 record. They lost their opener at Arkansas 21-20 and scored an easy 53-24 win last week at home over SC State. Texas Tech is also 1-1 after a blowout win in their opener over SF Austin but last week they were drilled at Arizona State 68-55. We like playing against over inflated favorites with bad defenses. Texas Tech fits the bill. The books opened this game with Tech a 11.5-point favorite. The public likes the Red Raiders and their high power offense as they’ve attracted two-thirds of the action. However, our money and the sharp money is on the dog. This game will be close.

Play on LA Tech.

Tom Grassi Under Valued NCAAF Favorite!

S. Florida at Syracuse – the Bulls roll into Syracuse with a perfect 2-0 record. Meanwhile, the Cuse are 1-1 after getting blowout by Louisville last week 62-28. Syracuse’s defense is awful allowing Louisville to put up 845 offensive yards. The Bulls opened as a 12.5-point road favorite but have jumped up to a two touchdown favorite. This line move bucks the money as Syracuse has attracted the majority of the bets. South Florida has a really good defense and they’ll shutdown the Orange and have plenty of scoring chances against this awful Syracuse defense. We have S. Florida winning by 21 points.

Play on S. Florida.

Grassi ‘ Monday Night Winner!

Pittsburgh at Washington – the Steelers and Big Ben open the season in FedEX Field against the Redskins. Pittsburgh is once again one of the teams that is expected to challenge for the AFC Championship while the Redskins are trying to build a solid playoff team. Pittsburgh ended their 2015 season with a 23-16 road playoff to the Broncos. The Skins got a taste of the playoffs losing to the Packers at home 35-18. Washington has put all of their eggs into the Kirk Cousins basket and the jury is still out. The books opened the Steelers as a field goal favorite the line has dropped down to them only laying 1.5-points at most offshores. The squares are all over the road favorite as Pittsburgh has attracted a large majority of the bets. We like the Monday Night home dog.

Play on Washington.

Grassi’ 4pm NFL Easy Winner!

Detroit at Indy – The Lions had a disappointing 7-9 2016 season. The problem last year was they got off to a dismal 0-4 start and lost 6 of their first seven games. The main problem was the offense as they scored 20 or less points in eight of their first 9 games. For Indy they also didn’t have the season they expected as Andrew Luck was injured and played only 7 games. Luck is back and many expect the Colts to make a playoff run. We look for the Lions to get off to a much better start this season and go into Indy and upset the Colts. Indy opened as a 4.5-point favorite but the sharp money came in on the Lions. However, the betting public loves to play on teams with the big time QB’s and the Colts  have attracted over 60% of the wagers. The squares are on Indy, but the sharps are on the Lions. Take the points with the Lions.

Play on Detroit.

Grassi’ Early NFL Opening Week Best Bet!

Oakland at New Orleans – this is a battle of teams going in opposite directions. The Raiders are a team on the upswing with young players growing into Superstars, while the Saints area team on the decline. A lot is being made of the Raiders going from West Coast time to play at 1:00pm but with this being the first game of the season we don’t believe it will be a factor. The more important factor is that Oakland is better on both sides of the ball. Last year the Saints allowed nearly 30 points per game and we don’t see an improvement on defense this year. In fact, at home it was even worse as they allowed 31.6 points per game. For the Raiders, despite having a young team they were 4-4 SU on the road and a very good 6-2 ATS. The Saints opened as a slim 2-point favorite but that number didn’t hold as the line has dropped down to New Orleans only being a 1-point choice at some of the big offshores. The Raiders open with a big road win in the Benz Superdome.

Play on Oakland.

Grassi’ Non-Conference Shocker!

NC at Illinois – the Tar Heels opened the season with a 33-24 neutral site loss to Georgia. NC couldn’t stop the Georgia running game as they surrendered 289 rushing yards on 52 attempts. For Illinois they scheduled a cupcake in their opener as they hosted Murray State winning 52-3. This game opened with NC favored by a whopping 10 points but the line has dropped all the way down to a touchdown. This line has dropped despite the money very heavily on the favorite. This is a tough 2-week opening stretch for NC and we seem them having trouble in Champaign.

We’re taking the points.

Grassi’ Conference Upset Alert!

Wake Forest at Duke – these two teams meet in ACC conference play today.  Wake  comes into this game with a suspect win over Tulane 7-3. Their offense didn’t play very well netting only 175 total yards. The good news is that they kept Tulane out of the end zone. For Duke they opened against NC Central and it wasn’t much of a game as the Dukies rolled 49-6. Last year these two teams met late in the season and Duke scored a 27-21 win at Wake Forest covering as 4-point favorites. The bettors have made this one of the most lopsided games on the board as they have grabbed 80% of the wagers. However, the line hasn’t budged from Duke being a 7-point favorite. Like last year we have this being a close game with an outright Wake Forest win not a surprise.

Play on Wake Forest.

Tom Grassi 15* NFL Customer Appreciation Play

The luster on this matchup was bit tarnished last week when the Seahawks lost to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Denver has done their part to hype this SuperBowl rematch by winning their first two games. However, we’re not sold on the Broncos as they’ve failed to cover in both games and they struggled to beat KC last week. Also, this game is in Seattle. The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite and we see them winning this game by a touchdown or more. It’s always a good idea to play against road dogs of 3-10 points that had a winning record last season. The players are taking the points, but we’re laying the points with the Seahawks.

Play on Seattle!

**EARLY** Tom Grassi 20* NFL Signature Selection

The Chargers pulled the biggest upset of this young NFL season by beating the Super Bowl champion Seahawks last Sunday 30-21. Meanwhile, the Bills are the surprise team in the league with a perfect 2-0 record. This game opened as a pick and the bettors jumped on the Chargers. However, Buffalo is now the favorite by as many as 2.5-points at some offshores. The Chargers are like Jeckle and Hyde and you never know which team is going to show up. Off that big upset win and having to travel all the way over to Buffalo is going to be tough for the Chargers. Look for the bad SD team to show up Sunday in Buffalo and for the Bills to win their third straight game.

Play on Buffalo!

**EARLY** Tom Grassi 20* NFL Smart Money

The Cowboys won their first game of the year beating the Titans in Tennessee 26-10. Despite all kind of QB issues the Rams also scored their first win beating the Bucs in Tampa 19-17 and covering as 4-point dogs. In this matchup the books opened Dallas as 1-point favorites and all they’ve done is write Dallas money. Nearly 9 of 10 bets offshore in this matchup have been on Dallas. However, the line hasn’t budged. We’re not big Tony Romo fans and we believe that the Rams have a good enough defense to shut down the Cowboys. Shaun Hill manages the game and leads the Rams to a straight win over Dallas.

Play on St. Louis!

Tom Grassi 20* Thursday Night NFL Side Winner

Lovie Smith was hired in Tampa to get the Bucs back on track. However, it hasn’t gone too well as Tampa Bay enters Week 3 looking for their first win. He brought in Josh McCown to take over as QB and that’s hasn’t worked out very well either. The Bucs are averaging only 168 passing yards per game and McCown has already thrown 3 interceptions. For Atlanta they were riding high after beating division rival New Orleans in their first game 37-34 at home in overtime. However, last Sunday their high powered offense couldn’t get out of first gear scoring only 10 points against the Bengals. In this contest the Falcons opened as 6.5-point favorites and despite Atlanta attracting 75% of the betting action most of the books haven’t moved the number. Tampa Bay has played the Falcons tough here in Atlanta with a 11-5 ATS record. We’re not sold on Atlanta and we’re taking the points with the Bucs.

Play on Tampa Bay!

Tom Grassi 20* Auburn/Kansas St Side Winner

The fifth ranked Auburn Tigers get a Thursday Night National TV game when they go to Manhattan to take on Kansas State. Auburn opened the season by whipping Arkansas 45-21 and San Jose State 59-13, covering the line in both games. Their awesome running game is rolling averaging 330 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry. Kansas State is also 2-0 opening with a 55-16 win over SF Austin, failing to cover as 41-point favorites. They then went to Iowa State and struggled with a 32-28 win and once again losing the money as 12-point road favorites. Auburn opened as 7.5-point road favorites and the money has come in on the Tigers. The books respected the money as the line is up to as high as 9.5 points at some offshores. Auburn is loaded and they have way too much for this Kansas State team. We’re projecting a double digit Auburn win.

Play on Auburn!

Tom Grassi 20* Eagles/Colts Side Winner

The Eagles had a shaky first half last Sunday against Jacksonville but rallied in the second half for a 34-17 win and cover. Meanwhile, the Colts had to open their season playing in Denver. They also started slowly and their second half rally fell short losing 31-24. They did manage to cover as 8-point underdogs. This game should be a good matchup with Nick Foles going against Andrew Luck. The Sportsbooks are looking for a good game as well as they have the Colts as a slim 3-point favorite. They are looking for a high scoring game with a 55-point total. If you’re a trend player you’re going to jump on the Colts as there are a number of strong trends favoring them, especially at home. The players are also on Indy as they have attracted two thirds of the money. However, despite the money on the Colts the books don’t dare take Indy to 3.5-point favorites. We’re bucking the trends and the players and going with the Eagles. We like the points and wouldn’t be surprised with an outright Philly win.

Play on Philadelphia

Tom Grassi 20* NFL Smart Money

St. Louis at Tampa Bay – the Rams starting QB is still in question. Shaun Hill is injured and his backup Austin Davis played in the second half after Hill was injured. Overall, it just wasn’t the play of the quarterbacks that resulted in their embarrassing 34-6 home loss last Sunday to Minnesota. For Tampa Bay, their QB isn’t injured but not so sure their starter is any better than the Rams. Last Sunday the Bucs got to play Carolina at home without Cam Newton. They didn’t play very well either losing 201-4 as 4.5-point favorites. Josh McCown was supposed to be the savoir for Tampa but he didn’t play very well completing only 22 of 35 passes and throwing two interceptions. Overall, Tampa Bay netted only 264 yards. The players have jumped all over the Bucs due to the Rams QB issues moving the opening line from 3.5-points all the way up to 6-points. Too many points.

Play on St. Louis

Tom Grassi 20* Signature Selection

The Jags opened up having to play at Philadelphia and at halftime they looked good. They took a 17-0 lead into the locker room and as 9.5-point dogs looked like a lock. However, the Eagles regrouped and blitzed the Jags in the second half to win 34-17. For Washington, RG3 and the offense couldn’t get into the end zone against a tough Houston defense losing their opener on the road 17-6. The Redskins did win the yardage battle 372 to 316 total yards but two costly turnovers cost them the game. The books look for the Skins to bounce back as they have them installed as 6-point favorites. The players however aren’t buying that theory and instead are taking the points with Jacksonville. We going against the players and looking for RG3 and the Skins to score a double digit win in their home opener. Lay the points.

Play on Washington.

Tom Grassi 25* AFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are back chasing the elusive Super Bowl Championship. It’s been 10 long years since they beat the Eagles to win the Championship. Brady’s main target Ron Gronkowski is back and is supposed to play against the Dolphins.

For Miami their hasn’t been any controversy so far this season. Last year they had to navigate around the Incognito scandal. Despite all the issues they went into the last two weeks of the 2013 season in playoff contention with an 8-6 record, and their last two games were winnable against Buffalo and the Jets at home.

However, the wheels fell off and they were shutout in Buffalo 19-0 and last the season finale to the Jets at home 20-7. Last year the Dolphins played the Pats tough beating them in Miami 24-20 and losing in New England 27-17. However, we don’t see this game being close.

The Pats are 4-point choices and we’re projecting a double digit NE win. Lay the points with the Pats.

Play on New England Patriots

Tom Grassi 20* NFL Signature Selection

Key early NFC South matchup with the Saints taking on the Falcons. The Saints are coming off a 12-6 season losing to the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in the playoffs.

The Falcons are coming back off a season that was rife with injuries that included QB Matt Ryan. Atlanta managed to win only 4 games last season. This year the Falcons seem to be at full strength so will see if they can regain their form that won 14 games in 2012.

Last year the Saints beat the Falcons twice, once in Week 1 with Ryan and later in the season without Ryan. In this contest the books opened the Falcons as 1-point favorites but the Saints have been bet up to 3-point favorites. We’re backing the line move in this game and playing on the Saints. Lay the points.

Play on New Orleans

TV Game of the Week

Frank Beamer brings his Hokies into Columbus for a night game against the Buckeyes. Beamer’s squads over the past few seasons have been so-so and we don’t see a lot of talent on this year’s team. They opened last week by beating William & Mary 34-9. For Ohio State they played their first game without Braxton Miller last week against Navy. It was close at the half but the Bucks rallied to win and cover 34-17. New QB J.T. Barrett played pretty well completing 12 of 15 passes for 226 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 50 yards. Not bad for a freshman trying to replace an All American on short notice. The bigger issue for OSU was their offensive line as they have four new starters. This new group didn’t play very well and Urban Meyer wasn’t happy. He’s looking for a much better performance Saturday Night. This is a big game for Ohio State. It’s at home and it’s one of their biggest recruiting games of the year. Also, LeBron James will be in attendance to give the Buckeye players a pregame pep talk. Ohio State has been installed as an 11-point favorite and this is a good spot for them as they are a very profitable 16-5 ATS as home favorites of 7-14 points. Virginia Tech has been awful on the road in Saturday games posing a 1-9 ATS record. Buckeyes blowout Virginia Tech.

Play on Ohio State

This is the featured college game of the week with the #7 ranked Spartans going out to Eugene to take on the 3rd ranked Ducks. With the new 4-team playoff system this game will be huge for the winner. The loser, most likely will be out of playoff contention. This will be a clash of styles with the ground and pound game of Michigan State trying to keep up with the run and gun game of Oregon. Last week both teams warmed up with lopsided victories over non-lined schools. Michigan State showed their stuff last year against the Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl when they upset Stanford. However, they’re going to have their hands full with this Oregon squad. Last year, Oregon QB Marcus Mariotta had some injury issues which led to the Ducks losing twice. In this contest Mariotta is healthy and on a mission to make up for the disappointing 2013 season. The books are begging you to take Michigan State plus the 12-points but we’re not taking the bait. In fact, we look for Oregon to be all over Michigan State. The Spartans return only 5 starters from last year’s defense and they don’t have the speed or talent to stay with this Oregon offense. Double digit favorites that won 10 or more games last season are good bet against non-conference opponents. Oregon gets the money. Play on Oregon.

Tom Grassi 15* MLB Afternoon Total

The Books have this total listed at a low 6.5 runs and they are just begging you to take the over in this matchup between Seattle and Oakland.

Both Pitchers are coming off a loss with Hernandez coming off one of his worst starts of the season, giving up five earned runs in just seven innings and they ended up losing to Washington 8-3 as decent -160 favorites. On the other side of the pitching matchup is Jon Lester who is coming off a poor start against the LA Angels on the road where he gave up a couple runs and the A's got shutout 4-0 as -120 road favorites. Look for both pitchers to bounce back with very strong outings.

We expect a very strong pitching matchup in this one and for the total to slide right under the low 6.5 number!

Play Under Seattle@Oakland

Tom Grassi 20* CFB Season Opener - Only $25

The Temple Owls take on the Vanderbilt Commodores and the betting public is all over Vanderbilt.

The Books opened the Commodores as huge 16.5 point favorites and despite over 65% of the action coming in on Vandy, the books have moved the line not one, but three points to the Commodores now favored by 13.5. We are going against the betting public and taking the Owls.

Taking a look at last season, the Owls only won two games straight up but looking at against the spread numbers, they finished 8-4 ATS. They were only 1-5 SU on the road but cashed five of the six at the betting window since they were not getting the value they deserved and were obviously very under-rated.

Vandy on the other hand went 9-4 SU for a decent season record but only finished 7-6 against the spread. They won five of seven home games but only covered three of those seven against the spread. The books crushed the public with Vanderbilt all last season and will hammer them again tonight as they have Vanderbilt way over valued and the public is falling into the trap once again.

Temple is 8-1 ATS when playing as an underdog over the last two seasons and

We expect the Commodores to win this matchup, just not in a huge blowout fashion. Look for Temple to keep it within the generous 13.5 points and cash this one at the betting window.

Play on Temple

Tom Grassi 25* NL Central Total of the Month

The Books have this total set at a low seven runs and are just begging you to take the over in this one without hitting that 6.5 or 6 run number. The action is about split on this one with just a little more action on the Over. We expect this one to slide right under the number at the betting window tonight.

The Cubs are coming off five straight unders while the Reds have also been going under the number, cashing the under in six of their last eight matchups including one push for a 6-1-1 Under record. We expect these trends to continue as both teams have struggled bringing in the runs. The Cubs and Reds are only averaging 3.8 runs per game this season and we don’t even expect those numbers from either club today.

Taking a look at the pitching matchup, Travis Wood is on the mound for the Cubs and is coming off back to back losses. He gave up four earned runs in just six innings for a 5-3 loss against the Giants and in his second most recent start he gave up three runs in just 5.3 innings for a low scoring 3-2 loss. Look for him to bounce back from that poor start against the Giants and give up very few runs in this outing.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Johnny Cueto who has been having a very solid season. He has a 2.24 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in all starts this season and that includes an even stronger 1.81 ERA and 0.816 WHIP in all starts at the Great American Ball Park. He is coming off a poor start that ended in a losing decision where he gave up five earned runs to St Louis in just five innings and the reds lost 7-3. He is coming off back to back road starts and we expect him to come out with a very strong performance in this outing at home!

These pitchers faced each other back on July 8th where the Reds won 4-2 as huge -220 favorites, sending the total just under the 7 run posted number. We expect another low scoring matchup from these two again tonight and plan to cash another MLB Total at the betting window!

Play Under Cubs@Reds

Tom Grassi 25* AL East Total of the Year

Boston heads up to Toronto to start this new series against the Jays. Both teams have been struggling as of late, especially the Red Sox who are coming into this matchup off eight straight losses. The Books have this total set a bit high at nine runs and with both pitchers coming off poor outings, we see this one sliding under the number.

Clay Buchholz is starting for the Red Sox and has a slightly below average 4.74 ERA in all road starts but is due for a good outing after that very poor start against the Angels. He gave up six runs in six innings and they ended up losing 8-3 as small +115 home dogs. He is due for a good outing and we don’t see him giving up too many runs to the struggling Toronto Blue Jays.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is J.A. Happ who has been having a solid season with a 3.25 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in all starts at Rogers Centre. He is coming off a very poor start against the Brewers where he gave up four runs in just 3.3 innings. He is coming off four team losses, earning the losing decision in the last three. Look for him to bounce back with a very strong start, and giving up very few runs to the Sox.

Boston is only averaging 3.8 runs per game this year and their bullpen has a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in all road games while Toronto is only slightly better average of 4.4 runs per game. The Red Sox are 17-7 Under when playing on the road with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.

Happ is not only 24-12 Under in all games over the last two seasons but he is 15-3 Under when starting at home and 15-5 Under after a loss. Look for both pitchers to have solid outings and this one sliding under the number at the betting window!

Play Under Sox @ Jays

The Books opened the Cardinals as -2 favorites and despite over 58% of the action coming in on the Bengals the line has moved all the way to -3 over at Bovada. If you shop lines you can find the Cardinals at -2.5 over at 5Dimes.

Arizona has cashed both Preseason games at the betting window and we expect that perfect ATS record to continue tonight. They crushed Houston in week 1 (32-0 as small 1.5 point home dogs) and lost to Minnesota 30-28 in week 2 but kept it within the five point number they were getting on the road.

They should have no problem against Cincinnati tonight and we see the betting public looking for a win from the Bengals as they have not yet won a preseason game. The Bengals lost to Kansas City in week 1 of the preseason 41-39 and pushed against the spread since they were getting two points. They came back in week 2 with another loss which was against the Jets 25-17 and they were laying three points at home for an outright loss!

We see a decent amount of value with the line movement in this Sunday Night Football game and will be expecting to cash the Cardinals to finish off week 3 of the NFL Preseason!

Play on Arizona

Tom Grassi 20* NFLX Thursday Night Football Winner

This Thursday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and the Eagles is going to be all about the running game. Philly is coming off back to back losses and are due for a winner. The Steelers on the other hand are 1-1 so far this preseason and are coming off that lucky win over Buffalo where they kicked the field goal after the turnover.

We expect Pittsburgh to struggle against the Eagles solid running game as they have had issues to stop the run so far, allowing 171 against the Giants and 150 against the Bills.

The Steelers have struggled putting points up on the board (35 combined for both preseason games) while the Eagles scored 28 against Chicago and 35 against New England which just wasn’t enough to get the win.

This is the third week of the Preseason and we all know what to expect. The starters will get plenty of playing time and we expect the Eagles to showcase their solid running game.

Play on the Eagles!

MLB Double Dog

Toronto can’t wait until they get back home. They’ve been in Seattle and Chicago and have won only one of the six games. They’ll play these two against the Brewers before going home. Happ hopes to get the Jays a win tonight when he starts in Milwaukee. He’ll oppose a Milwaukee team that is on a roll winning four straight.

The Brewers will start Michael Fiers who will be making only his third start of the season. So far so good for Fiers as he is a perfect 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA.

The Blue Jays were a nice looking dog tonight and we look for them to send Fiers to the showers early tonight. Happ beat the Brewers once earlier this season and we look for him to do it again tonight.

Play on Toronto

MLB Double Dog

The Books opened the Marlins as -165 favorites and despite over 80% of the action coming in on Miami the line is now down to as low as -150 over at 5Dimes. We are going against the public action and looking to cash the Rangers.

The Rangers just finished a seven game home stand winning only twice and now head down to Miami for a 2-game series. They send Miles Mikolas out for his 9th start of the season.

The Marlins are at home finishing off a 9-game home stand which has been pretty good winning five of the seven games. Jarred Cosart gets the ball for Miami.

The Rangers are struggling this season but making Cosart and the Marlins a $-155 favorite is an overlay. His team start record is under .500 at home with Miami winning only 5 of his 11 home starts. Mikolas hasn’t pitched that great in his limited starts but he has shined on the road with a 2.92 ERA.

Don't side with the public and cash the Rangers at the Betting Window.

Play on Texas

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Late Night Bailout

The Books have the Dodgers as -165 favorites which surprisingly seems a bit low.  I try to stay away from wagering on favorites since you might have a winning percentage but in baseball betting we all know it is all about units!  That is why I plan to cash the Dodgers -1.5 runs against the Brewers with a much better +135 payout over at 5Dimes.

Zack Greinke takes the mound for the Dodgers in this pitching mismatch.  He is coming off back to back losses, and one of those losses was against the Brewers last Saturday where he gave up four earned runs in six innings and the other loss was to the Angels where he gave up five runs in seven innings and the Dodgers got shutout 5-0 as small -115 home favorites.  I expect a strong bounce back start in this late night matchup.

On the other side of this pitching matchup is Jimmy Nelson who has only had six starts so far this season and has only earned two winning decisions.  He is coming off a loss to the Dodgers where he gave up just a couple runs in the six innings and the Dodgers ended up cashing the 5-1 win as mid-size -145 favorites last Sunday. We expect him to struggle again tonight and give up plenty of runs.

Don’t lay the chalk when you can lay the 1.5 runs and bring the odds more in your favor!

Play the LA Dodgers -1.5 Runs

Tom Grassi 15* MLB Run Line of the Week - Only $20

The LA Angels are huge -200 favorites against Texas tonight and should have no problem cashing the win at the betting window. I would never lay the chalk when I can lay the 1.5 runs and bring them all the way down to a small -130 favorite.

Garrett Richards is on the mound for the Angels and he has been having an epic season with a 2.54 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in all starts. He tends to pitch very well on the road with a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in all starts away from Angel Stadium of Anaheim. He is 4-1 against the Rangers with a 3.21 ERA and the Angels have easily crushed the Rangers in every matchup this season. Richards has faced the Rangers in three matchups so far this season. He started against them back in May where they won 5-3, towards the end of June where he gave up only one run in six innings and they crushed them 7-3, and the most recent start was on 7/11 which was at Texas and they shut them out 3-0 as -170 favorites and Richards didn’t give up a single run in seven innings. Look for this Perfect 3-0 Run Line Trend to continue tonight.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Nick Martinez who has only one start so far this season and I expect him to give up a few runs before getting pulled early. Don’t lay the juice and lay the -1.5 runs for better odds!

The Angles are 8-2 against the Rangers so far this season including a Perfect 4-0 Record when playing at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Looking at that solid 8-2 season record, the Angels cashed 7 of the 10 on the Run Line!

Play on LA Angels -1.5 Runs

Tom Grassi 20* NFLX Friday Night Blowout – Only $25

Philadelphia takes on New England tonight with the Patriots currently 3 point home favorites.  I expect a huge win after the Pats opened up the preseason with an embarrassing loss to Washington, getting blown out 23-6 as three point road dogs.  Last season, New England beat the Eagles 31-22 as three point road dogs but I expect an even bigger win this season. 

Tom Brady will be out there working out the kinks and getting a decent amount of game time in this second preseason matchup.  Brady mentioned how he really values the preseason games and how you have to get out there and play in game situations, and get your body going at the level that it needs to be at.

Last week, the Eagles gave up almost 400 passing yards to Chicago and we expect the Patriots to come out strong with a few big touchdown passes and some big plays to make up for last week’s embarrassing loss.

Lay the points with the Patriots as they cash the easy blowout win at the betting window!

Play on New England

Tom Grassi 20* Afternoon Discount Deal

The Books opened the Astros as -120 favorites and despite almost 60% of the action coming in on Houston, the line has moved all the way down to a -105 pick at most books. We are going with this line move and planning to cash the Twins to start off the Wednesday card.

The Twins are sitting a slightly better 53-65 season over the 50-70 Astros. The Twins opened up the series with a 4-2 win over the Astros then suffered a 10-4 loss last night.  We expect the Twins to finish this series off with a road win before heading back home to face KC in a four game series.

Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Twins and is having a slightly below average season with a 4.13 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in all starts.  He is coming off a loss to Oakland where he gave up five earned runs in five innings and we expect him to have a bounce back start where he gives up very few runs. Gibson started once against Houston this season where he pitched seven innings without giving up a single run and the Twins beat the Astros 8-0 as small -120 home favorites.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Brett Oberholtzer.  The Astros have won in all of Oberholtzer’s last five starts where Brett earned two of the five winning decisions. Before that five game winning streak, the Astros only won two of his 11 starts.  He started off this season with six losing decisions and we expect him to suffer a horrible start this afternoon.

Take the Twins and start this Wednesday off with a winner!

Play on Minnesota

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money

The Books opened up Seattle as -165 favorites and the public jumped all over them with over 70% of the action on the Mariners.  Despite all that action coming in on Seattle the line has bumped down to as low as -141 over at 5Dimes.  We are going against the public in this one and looking to cash the White Sox at the betting window.

The White Sox opened up the four game series against Seattle with back to back poor losses.  They lost the first matchup 13-3 as huge +175 road dogs and then came back in the second game with a 4-1 loss as slightly smaller +155 Dogs.  They shocked the public with a +175 winner in game three with Noesi on the mound, 2-1 final.  We expect them to even out the four game series tonight with a win. 

John Danks is on the mound the White Sox and he is coming off the worst start of the season, giving up nine runs to Texas in 4.7 innings and we expect a huge bounce back start after such an embarrassing performance.  Looking back to previous starts this season for Danks, anytime he gave up more than five runs in an outing, he came back with a winning start, besides one matchup which was against the Yankees where he pitched eight innings without giving up a single run and the bullpen blew the save. He has a terrible 9.18 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three starts and is due for a strong performance.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Erasmo Ramirez who has a below average 4.35 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in all starts this season.  He is coming off a few solid starts, giving up very few runs.  We expect him to have a poor outing this afternoon and shock the public with a loss.

Go against the public and take the Sox with Dank on the mound.

Play on Chicago

Tom Grassi 15* MLB Run Line of the Week *Only $20 Guaranteed*

Oakland started off the series against the Minnesota Twins with a shutout 3-0 win with Lester on the mound last night.  They were huge -275 favorites and are once again large favorites tonight with the line as high as -230 over at Bovada.  Why lay all that chalk when you can lay the 1.5 runs and bring the odds more in your favor?

Kazmir is on the mound for Oakland and looks to bounce back from his first loss in over a month.  He has a very solid 2.53 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in all starts this season and tends to pitch very well at home with an even better 1.92 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in all home starts.  He is coming off a very poor start to the Kansas City Royals where he gave up a four earned runs in just six innings which is his second highest amount of earned runs allowed this season.  The only other matchup where he gave up more than four earned runs was back in June where he had a poor start against the New York Mets and gave up seven runs in just three innings. Look for him to bounce back from that poor start against KC with a win tonight.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Kyle Gibson who is coming off back to back wins and is due for a loss. In his last start which was against the Chicago White Sox, he gave up only three earned runs and the Twins ended up crushing the White Sox 16-3 as +140 dogs.  In his second most recent start, he didn’t give up a single run in seven innings against the Kansas City Royals and they cashed the huge +180 underdog road win.  He has a not so strong 4.37 ERA in all road starts and we expect him to give up plenty of runs to Oakland who has no problem putting up runs on the scoreboard.

Oakland is 15-5 against the Twins over the last three seasons and they have beat them by at least 2 runs in their last 10 meetings. Out of those 20 matchups over the last three seasons, eight of them were played at Oakland and the A’s beat them in 7 of those eight.  So far this season they are 4-0 against the Twins and they beat them all four times by at least 2 runs for a Perfect 4-0 Run against them -1.5 Runs. We expect that perfect trend to continue tonight!

Don’t lay all that chalk and cash the A’s on the run line.

Play on Oakland -1.5 Runs

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Signature Selection

The Books opened up the Giants as -120 favorites and despite of all the public action coming in on them (72%), the line has actually dropped down to a pick over BetUS.  We are going against the public in this one and looking to cash the Royals at the Betting Window!

The Giants got on a small winnign run after that terrible cold streak they were on. They won five of their last eight after losing six straight against the Dodgers and Pirates series.  They are coming off a loss to the Brewers and we expect that trend to continue as they are heading into a tough matcup. 

The Royals are coming into this matchup with some momentum.  They have won four straight and looking back a few weeks, they have won 12 of their last 15 matchups. That solid road trip they are coming off includes two very nice wins over the Oakland A’s.  They beat them in the first game of the series in a very strong pitching matchup 1-0 as huge +205 road dogs and then suffered a loss in the second game but came back in the third game of the series with another solid 4-2 win as +155 dogs.  They are back at Kauffman Stadium tonight and should have no problem cashing the win!

We cashed our Interleague Game of the Month on the Mariners back on Wednesday and plan to cash another Interleague Matchup again tonight with this Giants at Royals Matchup!

Play on the Kansas City Royals

Tom Grassi 20* NFL Preseason Opener

The Offshore Books opened the Minnesota Vikings as 2.5 point favorites and the public is all over them with over 80% of the action.  We are going against the public in this matchup and looking to cash the Oakland Raiders at the betting window.

Coach Dennis Allen is really looking forward to watching his Raiders go out and play on Friday night and plans to get things rolling on a good note.  He mentioned how he plans to play Matt Schaub and anyone else who is “Healthy”, will be playing on Friday.

The Raiders are coming off a very poor 4-12 season and plan to really turn things around this season and plan to get some momentum going throughout the preseason starting with this road matchup against the Vikings. 
 
The Vikings are coming off a slightly better 5-10-1 2013 season and have a new head coach for the 2014 season.  Mike Zimmer makes his debut with the Vikings on Friday, which marks the beginning of Zimmer’s NFL Head coaching career.

Don’t side with the public and take the points in this Friday night preseason matchup!

Play on Oakland

Tom Grassi 25* MLB NL East Game of the Month

The Books opened the Phillies as small -110 home favorites which seems like a trap. The Phillies are dead last in the NL East with a 52-63 season record while the Mets sit right above them in the standings at 54-61.  We are backing the Mets in this matchup.

Looking at past results, the Mets are 18-6 against the Phillies over the last three seasons and this year they have beat them in 8 of 12 outings, which includes an almost perfect 5-1 record when playing at Citizens Bank Park.

Bartolo Colon is on the mound for the Mets and he has been having a so-so season.  He is coming off a very poor outing against the San Francisco Giants where he gave up six earned runs in just five innings and the Mets got shutout 9-0 as small home dogs.  We expect Colon to bounce back from that embarrassing outing with a strong start this evening. Colon has cashed back to back wins against the Phillies.  Both were huge wins; the most recent start they won 7-1 as small -135 home favorites and in his first start against them this season which was back in June, they won 11-2 as small -110 road favorites.  He gave up a combined three runs in 15 combined innings. 

On the other side of the pitching matchup is A.J. Burnett who has been struggling lately.  He is coming off two very poor starts and we don’t expect things to turn around just yet.  In his last start he barely made it through the second innings. In that matchup, the Phillies got shutout 11-0.  In his second most recent start he gave up seven earned runs in just five innings and they lost to the Mets 7-1, and in that matchup they were facing Colon.

The Phillies are coming off a strong series against the Astros where they swept the series.  Look for them to struggle as they are due for a loss.  The Mets on the other hand are coming off back to back losses against Washington after opening that series with a nice 6-1 win as +145 road dogs.

Play on the New York Mets

Tom Grassi 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month

The Offshore Books opened the Atlanta Braves as -120 favorites and despite over 75% of the action coming in on the Braves, the line has bumped down a tick to -115 over at 5Dimes. We are going against the public action and taking Seattle with Young on the mound this evening.

The Atlanta Braves have been ice cold throughout this road trip.  They have lost all seven games so far, including back to back sweeps against the Dodgers and the Padres and it looks like Seattle is going to end this two game series with another win after last night’s 4-2 win as larger -160 favorites. 

Chris Young seems to be very undervalued in this home start.  He has been having a solid season with a 3.24 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in all starts this season and has a 2.21 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in all starts at Safeco Field.  He is coming off a poor start against Cleveland where he gave up four earned runs in just five innings but Seattle was still able to cash the close 6-5 win as +130 road dogs over the Indians.  In the start before that Cleveland matchup, Young pitched seven innings without giving up a single run and Seattle beat Baltimore 4-3.  We expect another strong home performance out of Young tonight.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Julio Teheran who is coming off a loss but it was a pretty strong start.  He only gave up two runs in eight innings against the Dodgers and they lost only 2-1 as huge +190 road dogs.  In his second most recent start, he earned the winning decision as he gave up only three earned runs in six innings and they won 5-3 over the Padres. Don’t expect another strong outing from Teheran as he struggles on the mound this evening.

Seattle is a perfect 3-0 against Atlanta this season, including two road wins at the beginning of June.  They beat them 7-5 in the first meeting this season as +150 road underdogs and came back the following day with a 2-0 shutout win as +130 road dogs. Look for them to keep this perfect record going against the struggling Atlanta Braves. 

Play on Seattle

Tom Grassi 15* Favorite of the Week

The Books have the Detroit Tigers as small -125 Favorites in this matchup against the New York Yankees and we feel they are a bit undervalued.  We normally only play underdogs but there is too much value to pass up in this matchup. If you shop lines, you can find the best Odds over at 5Dimes.

The Tigers are coming off a loss to open up the series against the Yankees. They lost 2-1 as small -115 favorites and we expect them to bounce right back to even out the series. New York is coming off three straight wins and are due for a loss.

Taking a look at the pitching matchup, David Price is on the mound for the Tigers and he has been having a very solid season with a 3.16 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in all starts. He has also pitched very well on the road all season long with a 2.85 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in all road starts.  He is coming off a loss where he gave up three earned runs to the Brewers and the Tigers ended up with a shutout loss (5-0) as -165 home favorites.  Look for Price to bounce back with a solid performance in this matchup against the Yankees tonight!

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Hiroki Kuroda who has been having a so-so season. He is coming off a loss against Texas where he gave up three earned runs and the Yanks lost 3-2 as -135 favorites. He has only earned seven winning decisions while Price has earned 11. Kuroda has a below average 4.08 ERA in all home starts and we expect him to struggle tonight. He has a poor 10-20 team start record when the money line is between +125 and -125 and 14-24 in all night starts over the last two seasons.

Take the undervalued Tigers as small favorites tonight against the Yankees as they bounce back and even out the series!

Play on Detroit

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Double Dog

The Books opened the White Sox as -150 favorites which seemed to be a bit high for Chicago. There is about 77% of the action coming in on Chicago, and despite all that action the line has been moved down to as low as -140 at a few books. We are going with the sharps on this one as we expect the Rangers to cash this one at the betting window.

The Sox are coming off back to back poor matchups and we don’t see things turning around just yet as they start a new series against the Rangers tonight. The Rangers are coming off three straight losses as Cleveland Swept the series but we expect them to bounce back with a win to open up this series against the Sox.

Nick Martinez has been in a funk, coming off six straight losses but does have a pretty solid 3.91 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in all road starts. Look for him to finally come out with a strong start and get a little run support to help him cash the win.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Hector Noesi who is coming off a loss to Detroit where he gave up six runs in just six innings and they lost 7-2. Before that matchup he cashed back to back wins against the Twins and Astros but look for him to struggle tonight.

Go against the public and cash the Rangers at the Betting Window!

Play on Texas

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Double Dog

The Indians opened as -165 favorites and the line has jumped all the way to -215 over at 5Dimes.. The Public is all over Kluber and the Indians, who are coming off a three game sweep over Texas. We are going against the public as we expect Cincinnati to cash the win at the betting window.

Cincinnati is coming off a winning series over Miami where they won three of the four matchups. Both teams are tied at 56-55 for the season and we feel Kluber is a bit over-rated as he is due for a poor performance, coming off four wins and back to back starts where he didn’t give up a single run in nine innings. He has a 0.67 ERA andn 0.487 WHIP in his last three starts and is due for a bad start.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Alfred Simon who has been having a strong season but seems to be in a bit of a funk lately. He is coming into this matchup off three straight losses and looks to bounce back with a win in this matchup against the Cleveland Indians! Simon has a very solid 16-6 team start record so far this season and has cashed 11 of 13 starts when the Reds are coming off a win.

Go against the public and cash this huge underdog winner at the betting window!

Play on Cincinnati

Tom Grassi 20* Late Night Bailout

The books opened up Atlanta as -120 favorites and despite most of the action coming in on the Braves (77%), the line has moved down to -110 at most books and the Padres are listed at -105 at a few books.

The Padres are coming off a huge blowout win over the Braves to open up the new series.  They won 10-1 as small +110 Underdogs.  They have won three of their last four including another big blowout win over St Louis, 12-1 as small -115 favorites. 

Ervin Santana is on the mound for the Braves and has been pitching very well as of late but is due for a loss.  He is coming off a very strong performance just last week against the Padres where he pitched eight innings and didn’t give up a single run and the Braves won 2-0 as huge -205 home favorites.  He has a weak 4.00 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in all road starts this week and with him coming off three straight wins, we expect a lousy road start from him tonight.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Ian Kennedy who has beening a so-so season with a 3.66 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in all starts this season and is coming off a win against the Cubs where the Padres won 8-3 as small road favorites.  Before that matchup, he suffered back to back tough losses including that start where he didn’t give up a single run in eight innings and they ended up losing 1-0 due to zero run support.  Look for the Padres to back him up tonight and for San Diego to cash the win at the betting window!

Play on San Diego Padres

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money

The Offshore Books opened the LA Angels as -120 favorites and despite more action coming in on the Angels, the line has moved to Baltimore being the small -105 favorite at most books.  We are taking the value with the Orioles at home tonight as we expect them to sweep the series after winning the first game 7-6 as +120 dogs, and the second game 4-3 as +125 dogs. 

Tyler Skaggs in on the mound tonight and we expect him to have a poor start after coming off three straight team wins, and having a strong start in his last outing against Detroit where he gave up only one earned run in almost six innings.  He has a so-so 4.49 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in all starts this season but don’t expect a very strong start against the Orioles.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Bud Norris who has been strong at home all season long.  He has an above average 3.02 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in all home starts and is coming off a poor outing against Seattle where he gave up four earned runs in just five innings and the Orioles lost 4-3 as small -105 road favorites.  He is coming off back to back road starts and we expect a strong outing from him to bounce back from that loss at Oriole Park at Camden Yards Tonight!

The Orioles are 4-1 against the LA Angels so far this season and should have no problem cashing the win at the betting window this evening to sweep the series.  They are 19-10 against AL West opponents this season and Norris has a 15-6 team start record when starting as a home dog of +100 to +125. With the line move pushing them to a small favorite at a few books we wanted to include his 26-13 team start record at home when the money line is between +125 and -125.

Go with the reverse line move on this one and cash the Orioles on Thursday night!

Play on Baltimore

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Late Night Bailout

The Offshore Books opened the Giants as large -160 favorites and despite over 65% of the action coming in on the Giants, the line has moved to as low as -149 over at 5Dimes.  We are taking the Pittsburgh Pirates in this late night matchup.

The Giants are on a four game losing streak after that loss to the Phillies and the three game sweep from the Dodgers.  We don’t expect that run to be broken just yet.  Pitt is coming off a win against the Rockies after back to back 8-1 losses against them. 

Madison Bumgarner is on the mound for the Giants and has a 3.19 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in all starts this season but has struggled at home with a 5.22 ERA and 1.534 WHIP in all home starts.  He has a very strong 2.21 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in his last three starts and is due for a loss after cashing three straight wins in his most recent starts. He didn’t give up a single run in eight innings in his last start which was against the Phillies and only gave up one run in six innings in his second most recent start against the Marlins.  Look for him to have a poor start this evening as he 0-5 TSR at home against NL Central opponents. 

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Vance Worley who has been having a solid season with a 2.79 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in all starts and has pitched pretty well on the road with a 3.37 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in all road starts.  He is coming off a win against the Dodgers where he gave up only one earned run in six innings and Pitt won the matchup 12-7.  We expect Worley to come out with a very strong start tonight.

Don’t side with the public and cash the Pirates at the Betting window.

Play on Pittsburgh

Tom Grassi 15* MLB Run Line of the Week

We cashed an easy winner with our Top Rated 25* Run Line selection last night on the Oakland A’s and plan to cash them again tonight.  The A’s take on the Astros to open up the new series and should have no problem starting this series off with a win and continuing that with a series sweep!

Looking back to their last series which was just last week, the Astros got a lucky +235 Win to open up the series as they beat the A’s 3-2 but got beat in the second two games of the series including that huge 13-1 blowout win.  Since that 3-2 win over the A’s, the Astros have lost five straight games and we don’t see things turning around anytime soon. Oakland on the other hand has won four of their last five since that poor performance and still seek a little revenge after such an embarrassing loss to them last week. 

Brett Oberholtzer is starting for the Astros and has a terrible 5.08 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in all home starts so far this season.  He is coming off back to back team wins including that shocking +230 win against the A’s to open up the last series.  There is no way that Oberholtzer will have back to back starts like that as he gave up only two runs in seven innings against the A’s in that matchup. 

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Jesse Chavez who earned 2 winning decisions against Houston so far this season and has started against them three times this season and the A’s won all three by at least two runs.  Chavez has a solid 3.14 ERA and 1.288 WHIP in all starts and should have another solid performance tonight. 

Not a single left handed Houston starter has ever beaten Oakland in 35 all-time meetings! Why lay the big juice when you can bring the odds more in your favor by laying the 1.5 runs at -120?

Play on Oakland -1.5 Runs

Tom Grassi **TOP RATED 25* Run Line Blowout**

We cashed the Oakland A’s on the Run Line yesterday after Texas opened up the series with a shocking win.  We are again taking Oakland -1.5 runs as Kazmir will not be a part of another losing matchup after that terrible -265 loss last week against the terrible Houston Astros to open up that series.

Looking back to that series, the A’s lost an embarrassing first game just like they lost the opening game of this series.  In that series against the Astros, we cashed the Run Line win with our 25* AL West Run Line Game of the Year then came back the following day with a free 10* pick on the A’s -1.5 runs which we also cashed at the betting window. 

It seems like déjà vu as we passed on the first game of the series, cashed the second game of the series on the run line and look to hammer the books once again to finish off the week.

Miles Mikolas has only four starts so far this season and a terrible 7.48 EAR and 1.524 in all starts.  He has a miserable 13.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in his two home starts this season including a terrible performance against a struggling Houston Astros team where he gave up nine runs in just three innings and they lost as -150 home favorites.  Out of those four starts, he has earned only one win and they Rangers lost the other three matchups.  He is coming off that one win where he gave up only two runs in seven innings to the Yankees and they won 4-2 as +145 road dogs.  We don’t expect a strong start from Mikolas tonight as we plan to easily cash this run line win!

Why side with the public and lay all that chalk when you can bring the odds more in your favor with the run line being only -130 at -1.5 runs!

Play on Oakland -1.5 Runs.

Tom Grassi 25* AL East Game of the Month

Let’s take a look at the Toronto Blue Jays were NY Yankees matchup. The Blues Jays send lefty Mark Buehrle to the mound and the Yankees counter with righty Hiroki Kuroda.

The Jays come to New York riding a three game winning streak. They beat Boston yesterday 8-0 behind an outstanding pitching performance by Marcus Stroman who went seven strong innings allowing only one hit. The bullpen finished up and didn’t surrender a hit.

Despite injuries to their pitching staff the Yankees have been playing good baseball. New York has won six of their seven games since the All Star Break. Their pitching has been outstanding as they have allowed an average of only 2 runs per game in those last seven games.

The Yankees own the Jays here in New York having won 16 straight home games over Toronto. To make matters worse for Toronto is that their starter Buehrle has an awful 2-16 team start record versus the Yankees. This season he has two starts against NY and allowed 6 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings of work.

Buehrle has a sparkling 2.86 ERA on the season with a 14-6 team start record. However, he’s struggled in his last three outings posting a 5.29 ERA.

Yankee starter Kuroda has pitched pretty well this season with a 3.88 ERA. However, the Yankees don’t give him much support and they are only 9-11 in his 20 starts. Kuroda has been solid against the Blue Jays in his career with a 6-3 team start record and 3.86 ERA. He’s faced Toronto once this season up in Canada and he allowed three earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in a 5-3 NY win.

The Yankees are $-125 favorites tonight and despite their overwhelming past success against Toronto we’re backing the Blue Jays. Remember, betting trends always seem to revert back to 50-50 over time and we expect NY’s dominance over Toronto to come to and end.

We like betting underdogs and we like betting dogs with the pitching advantage. Buehrle hasn’t pitched very well of late but we look for him to get back on track tonight. You can’t trust Kuroda in this betting range as he has a 10-20 team start record pitching when the betting line is between $-125 to $+125.

Play on Toronto Blue Jays

TOM GRASSI 25* MLB AL CENTRAL GAME OF THE MONTH

The Books opened up the Cleveland Indians as -120 favorites and the public jumped all over them. There is just under 70% of the action on Cleveland and despite all that action, the line has dropped down to Cleveland being favored by -110. We feel that this is a bit of a trap and that KC has some under-rated value in this one.

Cleveland is sending Kluber out to the mound who has been having a solid season with a 2.95 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in all starts and even has pitched very well on the road with a 2.88 ERA and 1.296 WHIP but is coming off three straight wins and is due for a loss here tonight.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Danny Duffy who has also been having a solid season with a 2.71 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in all starts and pitches very well against his division with a 2.27 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in that situation. HE is surprisingly coming off three straight losses and unlike Kluber, he is due for a win.

The Indians were on a solid little run including those two underdog wins against Detorit (+155 and +175) but have struggled since, winning only one of their last four and we don’t see things turning around for Cleveland just yet. Kansas City is in almost the exact opposite situation since they were in a terrible funk but are coming off back to back wins over the White Sox and look to build off that momentum to finally get on a winning run.

Don’t side with the public and cash the Royals at the Betting Window.

Play on Kansas City

TOM GRASSI 20* EARLY AFTERNOON NL SMART MONEY

The Giants seem to be under-rated in this early afternoon matchup against the Phillies. The Books have the Phillies as small -115 favorites and it seems like a trap to get the public all over Philadelphia.

San Francisco is coming into this matchup with some momentum as they have won seven of their last nine and are coming off three straight wins. We expect a sweep in this four game series as the Giants should have no problem cashing the win at the betting window. The Phillies on the other hand are ice cold as they have won only one of their last eight matchups. 

Tim Hudson is on the mound for the Giants and has been having a solid season.  He has a 2.77 ERA and 1.070 WHIP In all starts and tends to pitch very well on the road with a 2.32 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in all road starts.  He is coming off a solid start against Miami where he only gave up one earned run in seven innings and they won 5-3.  Looking back to the previous start to that matchup against Miami, he gave up six runs in just five innings for one of his worst outings of the season.  We expect him to have another strong start this afternoon and cash the easy win.  He is not only 45-22 TSR in all games over the last two seasons but he is 101-55 TSR in all day games!

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Cole Hamels who has also been having a solid season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.163 WHIP but is coming off a few strong starts and is due for a bad performance.  He is also only 12-21 TSR when starting as a favorite over the last two season. 

We expect the public to fall into the small favorite trap and for us sharp betters to win another small MLB Dog! If you shop lines you can find the best odds over at BetOnline.

Play on San Francisco!

TOM GRASSI 20* EARLY AFTERNOON AL SMART MONEY

The Offshore Books opened up the Yankees as huge over-rated -200 favorites and a ton of public action is coming in on NY (73% of the action). Despite all that money coming in on the Yanks, the line has dropped down to them being favored as low as -173 at a few books.  If you shop lines you can find the best odds over at 5Dimes where we usually find the best large dog lines. 

The Rangers have been in a bit of a funk over the past month, winning only three of their last 21 matchups.  They opened up the four game series against the Yankees with a 4-2 win as decent +145 underdogs.  We expect them to finish off the series and road trip with a win before they head back home and face the Oakland A’s. 

Taking a look at pitching matchup, Colby Lewis is on the mound for the Rangers and he is coming off two poor starts including an absolutely terrible performance against the LA Angels where he gave up 11 earned runs in just 2.3 innings and they ended up losing 15-6 as small +120 underdogs.  Look for him to gain a bit of respect back after those back to back losses.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Brandon McCarthy who has an below average 4.63 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in all starts this season and a poor 5.04 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in all home starts.  He is coming off four straight team wins including three winning decisions and is due for a loss as he has a season best 1.96 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in his last three starts.  

Go against the public in this one and cash the Rangers as large underdogs at the Betting Window!

Play on Texas!

Tom Grassi 25* AL West RunLine of the Year

The Oakland Athletics suffered one of the most embarrassing losses of the season yesterday against the Houston Astros.  They were -265 home favorites which most public bettors were all over and we were all shocked when not only did the -125 Run Line didn’t come in but the Athletics ended up losing the matchup 3-2 the Astros cashed the huge +225 Win at the Betting Window.

We don’t expect another poor performance from Oakland again tonight and it should be a blowout as they plan to gain a little respect back after such a poor outing.  So far this season, Oakland is 10-4 against the Astros including a 3-1 record when playing at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. 

Brad Peacock is starting for the Astros and has had a few surprisingly strong starts this season but we don’t expect one of those shocking starts tonight.  He has a below average 4.00 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in all starts this season, a 5.56 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts and has started against the A’s twice this season, both ending in poor losses. In his last start he gave up three earned runs before he was pulled in the fifth inning and the Astros lost 12-5 and the start prior to that, he gave up two earned runs in just five innings and they lost 4-1.  We expect another poor start from Peacock against the Athletics with plenty of runs scored.

Jesse Chavez started in that 12-5 win back on 4/25 when the A’s crushed the Astros as large -175 favorites.  He is started again tonight and should have no problem cashing the win tonight.  HE has started against the Astros twice this season and the first start they were favored by -265 and he only gave up one run in six innings and the A’s beat the Astros 4-1.  Chavez has a very strong 2.13 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in all home starts and after that terrible performance from the A’s last night, we don’t see Chavez coming out with a sloppy start.

The Public will be all over the A’s tonight and so will we, but instead of laying the heavy chalk, go with the sharps and play the A’s -1.5 runs and cash this easy win at the betting window! If you shop around you can find the bet odds over at 5Dimes at -115.

Play on Oakland -1.5 Runs

Tom Grassi 25* NL Central Game of the Month

The Offshore Books opened the Brewers as -160 favorites and most of the public money has come in on Milwuakee.  Despite over 60% of the action coming in on the Brewers, the odds have dropped to as low as -138 over at 5Dimes and we expect the public to be shocked as Cinci snaps their five game losing streak with a road win this afternoon. If you shop Lines you can find the best odds over at Bovada at +130.

The Brewers are leading the series 2-0 against the Reds. Watch as the Reds avoid the sweep with an afternoon road winner.  Leake is on the Mound for the Reds and is coming off back to back losses and is due for a strong performance.  He gave up four earned runs in back to back innings.  He gave up four in seven innings against the Yankees and they ended up losing that one 4-3 as +125 dogs and also gave up four in six innings to the Pittsburg Pirates, which they ended up losing 6-5 at -105 odds. Leake is 1-1 so far this season against the Reds with his last matchup being a blowout win (13-4 as +115 at Milwuakee) and the first was a tough 2-0 loss as -120 favorites where Leake only gave up two earned runs in eight innings but due to zero run support the Reds ended up losing the matchup.  Look for Mike Leake to bounce back after those back to back lousy starts with a strong afternoon win!

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Kyle Lohse who has been having a solid season with a 3.16 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in all starts and has pitched very well at home with a 2.43 ERA and 0.876 WHIP in all home starts.  Lohse is due for a loss after that epic start against the Washington Nationals where he only gave up one earned run in seven innings and the Brewers cashed the +160 win at the betting window just last week.  We don’t expect back to back performances like that as the Brewers are due for a bad outing. Lohse has started twice against the Reds this season and the Brewers lost both matchups.  Look for that trend to continue and Lohse struggling at the mound for a loss again today.

Cinci is 29-19 when playing against division opponents this season while the Brewers are only 17-29 in home day games and they have struggled throughout the month of July with a 5-12 record.

Don’t side with the public and cash the afternoon win with the Reds!

Play on Cinci!

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Signature Selection

The Offshore Books opened the Angels as -140 favorites and despite over 70% of the action coming in on LA, the line has dropped down to -130 at most books.  The Angels seem to be very over-valued in this matchup and the public is going to be shocked when Baltimore cashes the win at the betting window.  If you shop lines you can find the best odds over at 5Dimes.

Baltimore is coming off a losing series against Oakland where they lost the first game 5-4 as 150 dogs, came back and won the second with a solid 8-4 win as +145 road dogs but failed to win the series with a lousy 10-2 loss as once again big +140 road dogs.  We expct them to bounce back with a win to start this new road series against LA. 

The Angels have been playing some good baseball, winning seven of their last eight, but are due for a loss. Matt Shoemaker takes the mound for the Angels and has been having a so-so season with a 4.15 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in all starts this season.  We expect him to come back with a poor performance after cashing a win over Hosuton back at the beginning of July.  

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Bud Norris who is coming off an embarrassing start to Washington where he gave up five earned runs in just four innings and we expect him to bounce back with a solid start. Norris is a perfect 3-0 when starting against the Angles with a very solid ERA of 0.32 and WHIP of 0.964.

Baltimore is not only 28-21 in all road games this season but they are 27-17 after a loss and have cashed 13 of 16 after a big loss by six runs or more.  Go against the public and take the Orioles as small undervalued road dogs!

Play on Baltimore!

Tom Grassi 25* AL Underdog of the Month

The Books opened the Tampa Bay Rays as -165 favorites and despite about 70% of the action coming in on the Rays, the line has moved down to as low as -144 at 5Dimes. We are going against the public in this one and if you shop lines, you can find the best odds over at +139 at 5Dimes.

The Twins seem to be very under-valued in this home matchup against the Rays.  They are 44-51 on the season while the Rays have only one more win with a 45-53 record.  The Rays opened up the series with a 6-2 win as -120 road favorites in last night’s matchup but we expect the Twins to even out the series this evening.

David Price is on the mound for the Rays and has been having a strong season with a 3.29 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in all starts.  He is due for a bad start with a very strong 1.52 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in his last three starts and is coming off four straight wins. He has given up only five earned runs in a combined 32 innings pitched and we see him shocking the public with a lousy start tonight.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Phil Hughes who is coming off a back to back wins over Colorado and Seattle.  We expect him to keep the momentum going with a strong win tonight.  Hughes has a 10-5 TSR when starting as an underdog, 13-6 TSR this season, and a very solid 27-8 TSR at home after a team loss.

Don’t side with the public and cash an easy underdog winner with the Twins.

Play on Minnesota

Tom Grassi 15* Run Line Game of the Week

The Books have the Giants at -180 favorites and we expect a big win from San Francisco but are staying away from the chalk and going with the run line at +130.

The Giants opened up this series against the D-backs with a nice 5-0 shutout win but came back in the second with a 2-0 shutout loss. They are even moving into game three of the series and we expect the Giants to easily cash this one at the betting window and close the series with a very strong win.

Nuno is on the mound for the D-backs and is having an average season with a 4.46 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in all starts but with his 1.53 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in his last three starts, he is due for a lousy performance.  HE is coming off a very strong start against the Miami Marlins where he didn’t give up a single run in seven innings pitched.  The D-backs did end up losing that one due to very little run support (2-1 loss).

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Madison Bumgarner.  He is coming off a rare three straight losing decisions.  All three were big losses for the Giants including a 7-2 loss against St Louis as -155 favorites.  Unlike Nuno, Bumgarner has a terrible 7.50 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in his last three starts and is due for a great start.  He does have a solid 2.86 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in all day starts this season and 3.16 ERA when starting against his division. 

Play on the Giants -1.5 Runs at +130

Tom Grassi 25* AL West Total of the Year

The Books have this total set at 8 runs which seems to be a bit high.  We expect a low scoring matchup and for this total to slide under the number for an easy win at the betting window.

This has been a very high scoring series for the Rangers and Astros.  In the first game of the series the Astros won 12-7 which sent the total way over the already high 9.5 run number.  In the second game of the series the total went over again with a a final score of Houston beating the Rangers 8-3 and a 9.5 run total.  The Rangers are coming off just back to back overs while the Rangers are coming off five straight overs and have went over the total in seven of their last eight matchups. 

Taking a look at the pitching matchup, both pitchers are coming off lousy starts.  Dallas Keuchel is on the mound for the Astros and is coming off a few very poor starts. He is coming off three straight team losses and received two losing decisions in those three starts.  He gave up five runs in just five innings in his last matchup against the Angels and the total went over with a 7-6 final and 8 run total. We expect Keuchel to bounce back from those poor starts with a very strong performance tonight.  He does have a strong 2.89 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in all road starts.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Yu Darvish who is starting for the Rangers.  He has been having a solid season with a 2.63 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in all starts and tends to pitch very well at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington with a 1.83 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in all home starts.  He is coming off a poor start against the New York Mets where he gave up four earned runs in just five innings and they lost 6-5 as -155 favorites. Last time Dravish started against the Astros, he didn’t give up a single run in eight innings pitched and the Rangers won 1-0 which put the total way under the number.  Look for him to bounce back with a strong start, giving up very few runs. 

Houston is 12-3 Under after a win by 4 runs or more this season and 23-13 Under after a win.  The Rangers are not only 19-8 Under as a big favorite of -175 to -250 but they have put the total under the number in 66 of 99 matchups when revenging back to back losses where the opponent scored eight runs or more. Darvish is 19-7 Under as a big favorite of -150 or more and also 11-2 Under at home off a loss.

Play Under Astros/Rangers

Tom Grassi 25* MLB Run Line Game of the Month

The Angels opened up the series with a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays but suffered a 4-0 shutout loss in the second game of the series last night. We expect the Angels to come back strong with a strong performance and easily finish off the series with a huge win at the betting window.  Why lay the -150 money line when you can get the Angels at +145 ATS? If you shop lines you can find the best odds over at 5Dimes.

Marcus Stroman is on the mound for the Blue Jays and is having a good season.  He has a 2.08 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in all starts this season and a solid 1.69 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in all road starts.  He has been pitching very well as of late with a 1.25 ERA and 0.646 WHIP in his last three starts and is due for a lousy performance.  In his last start which was against Oakland, he didn’t give up a single run in seven innings but with no help from his offense, they lost 1-0.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is C.J. Wilson who has been having an average season with a 4.23 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in all starts and has started well at home with a 3.86 ERA and 1.137 WHIP. He has a very solid 2.54 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in all day starts and we expect to him to have a strong start after giving up a ton of runs in his last three starts.  He has an embarrassing 11.08 ERA and 2.154 WHIP in his last three starts and is due for a strong performance.  We expect him to come out strong and try to improve that poor ERA with an excellent start which will have us cashing the Angels -1.5 at the betting window!

Play on LA Angels -1.5 Runs

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Signature Selection

The Books opened Seattle as -120 favorites and despite about 70% of the action coming in on the Mariners, the line has bumped down a bit to -114 over at Bovada.  The Public will be all over the Mariners tonight and we expect them to be shocked when the Mariners cash the win at the betting window. If you shop lines you can find the Twins at +107 over at 5Dimes.

Seattle opened up the series last night with a 2-0 shutout win over the Twins and we expect Minnesota to bounce back and even out the series tonight.  Phil Hughes is on the mound for the Twins and is coming off a few terrible starts and is due for a good outing.  He has a lousy 8.05 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in his last three starts and will try to gain some respect back after back to back losses. On a positive note, he has a 2.59 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in all road starts this season and has a solid 11-6 team start record in all games this season.  He is also 11-5 TSR when starting as a road underdog over the last two seasons. 

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Chris Young who has been having a solid season.  HE has a 3.11 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in all starts and an even better 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in all home starts but is due for a loss as he is coming off back to back winning decisions and the Mariners have won all of his last four starts. He only gave up two runs (in 7 innings) in his last start against the Astros and they won 5-2, and a combined two runs in the three previous starts to that Houston matchup which makes it a combined 4 earned runs in 25 innings. Look for him to come out tonight with a struggling performance. 

The Twins won two of the three games in the first series back in the middle of May and should have no problem evening out the series with a win later this evening! Don’t side with the public and side with the sharps.

Play on Minnesota

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money

The Tampa Bay Rays have opened as small -120 favorites in tonight’s matchup against the Royals and it looks like a trap.  The line has slightly bumped up to -125 and you can find them as high as -130. We recommend playing the Royals tonight as they show some under-rated value as small road dogs as we expected them to be closer to a small -110 favorites in this matchup. 

The Royals are coming off back to back losses against Cleveland and are due for a strong performance. Taking a look at the other side of the matchup, the Rays are coming into this one off three straight wins over Detroit and we expect them to start off this new series with a struggling performance and causing the Royals to cash the win at the betting window. 

Shields is starting for the Royals and despite a lousy 6.16 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in his last three starts, he has pitched well on the road this season with a 3.89 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in all road starts.  He is coming off three straight team losses and he received a losing decision in his last start which was an embarrassing performance against the Twins where they lost 10-2 as -140 road favorites.  He gave up four earned runs in just five innings in that last start and has given up a combined 13 run in his last three starts for a combined 19 innings. We expect him to bounce back and look to gain a bit of respect back after that miserable start against the Twins last week. 

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Jake Odorizzi who has a solid 2.70 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in all home starts but we expect him to have a poor start this evening.  He is coming off a win against the Yankees where the Rays won 6-3 as small -110 favorites and he has only given up a combined four earned runs in his last three matchups for a combined 18 innings.  The Rays have won three of his last four starts and he is due for a bad performance with his season team start record of only 6-11.

Kansas City is 12-4 against the Rays over the last few seasons and we expect them to cash another win tonight!

Play on Kansas City

Tom Grassi 25* MLB NL West Game of the Month

We normally don’t recommend playing public plays such as the San Francisco Giants for today but the public does win sometimes and today we all should easily cash the Giants at the betting window.  

The Giants have been in somewhat of a funk lately. They are sitting second in the NL Central right above the Padres with their 47-38 season record while the Padres are third with their 38-47 record which is the exact opposite of the Giants.  The Giants are 25-15 on the road so far this season and are due for a winning matchup as they have won only one of their last eight matchups while the Padres on the other hand are due for a loss as they are coming off five straight wins including three shutouts.

The Padres opened up the series last night with a 2-0 shutout as +100 home dogs.  They swept the Cincinatti series and we expect them to have a very poor outing this evening. On the mound for the Padres is Despaigne who has only started twice this season and both starts were very strong.  He only gave up a combined one earned run in both outings and received winning decisions in both and one was against the Giants. In that shutout win over the Giants (6-0), Despaigne didn’t give up a single run in seven innings pitched and the padres cashed the +150 road win.  Don’t expect another shocking performance from Despaigne as he has started off the season with two very strong starts and will suffer a poor start tonight.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Tim Hudson who is having a strong season with a 2.59 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in all starts but along with the Giants has been in a funk.  He has received three straight losing decisions and is coming off a very poor start to the Cincinnati Reds where the Giants got shutout 4-0 as -125 home favorites. He started against San Diego three times so far this season and they lost two of three.  We expect that trend to even out tonight. Look for him to bounce back and make up for that embarrassing three game losing streak he has been on.

The Giants are 9-2 on the road when revenging a shutout loss and Hudson is 13-2 when starting against a division opponent.  The Padres are only 11-19 after back to back games with no errors committed and also 4-15 when coming off an upset win over a division opponent as a home dog. Look for San Fran to easily cash this win.

Play on San Francisco

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Afternoon Smart Money

The Books opened up the Dodgers as -120 favorites and they seem to be over-valued in this matchup.  The Dodgers are coming off two wins to open up the series at Colorado including a huge blowout win yesterday where they shutout the Rockies 9-0 as huge -215 favorites. Look for the Rockies to come back from that embarrassing outing with a shocking performance this afternoon.

The Colorado Rockies on the other hand are coming into this matchup off five straight losses and are due for a winner.  They have been in a bit of a funk and the only two games they have won over the last few weeks were when De LA Rosa has been on the mound.  

Dan Haren is on the mound for the Dodgers and he is coming off a very strong start against the Cleveland Indians where he didn’t give up a single earned run in seven innings and they won 1-0 over the Indians. Haren tends to give up some runs on the road as in his last start he gave up four earned runs in just four innings to the Kansas City Royals and he has a below average 4.18 ERA in all road starts.  Look for him to give up some runs today.

De La Rosa is coming into this matchup with some momentum. He is off two wins including that last +145 win over the Brewers last Sunday.  We expect him to have a strong start today and shock the public as the Rockies cash the win at the betting window!

Play on Colorado Rockies

Tom Grassi 25* MLB 4th of July Underdog Special

The Books opened up the Chicago White Sox as -170 favorites and despite about 70% of the action coming in on the Sox, the line has bumped down to as low as -155 over at 5Dimes.  We feel that Seattle is very undervalued in this matchup tonight and if you shop lines you can still find the Mariners at +147 over at BetOnline.

Both teams are coming off wins but Seattle moves into this matchup with a bit more momentum.  They are on a four game win streak and we see this streak continuing tonight with another win at the betting window.  The White Sox cashed a back on Wednesday to close out the Angels series and avoid the three game sweep.  It was a solid win from the Sox as they won by only one run (3-2), but were a +145 home dog. We don’t see them having back to back wins.

Taking a look at the pitching matchup, Roenis Elias is starting for Seattle and is coming off a very poor start against the Cleveland Indians. He gave up five earned runs in just six innings pitched and the Mariners got shutout 5-0 as -120 home favorites last week.  Other then that poor start, Elias has been having a solid season with a 3.87 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in all starts and he tends to pitch well on the road with a slightly better 3.29 ERA and 1.192 WHIP.  The two starts prior to that terrible shutout loss, he gave up only one run in a combined 14 innings pitched. We Expect him to come out strong after such an embarrassing outing.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Chris Sale who is coming off a win against Toronto.  He has a very solid 2.15 ERA and 0.715 at home this season but after giving up three or less runs in four straight starts we expect a poor performance from Sale.  Look for him to give up plenty of runs before the Sox pull him from the mound. 

Seattle is not only an almost perfect 7-1 when playing as a road underdog of +150 or more but they are 26-16 on the road this season and 20-11 against left-handed starters. Look for Seattle to shock the public with a big underdog win for the 4th of July! Go against the public in this one!

Play on Seattle

Tom Grassi 15* MLB Favorite of the Week

The New York Yankees take on the Minnesota Twins tonight and the Yanks have been in a funk.  We expect Tanka to have another solid start and get New York out of this rut. 

The Yankees have lost their last 5 games and are due for a win.  The Twins cashed a few lucky wins against this week including a +130 10-2 win and +110 3-2 win over Texas. Look for them to come out with a stuggling performance against a thirsty Yankees team.

Tanaka is on the mound for the Yanks and he has been having a very strong season.  He has a 2.10 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in all starts this season. He is coming off two losses including that very poor outing by the Yankees where they got shutout 8-0 against Baltimore.  Tanka had decent starts in both matchups but couldn’t get any help from his bullpen or offense. Look for him to make up for those past two losing starts with an excellent start tonight.

Phil Hughes is starting for Houston and is having a decent season.  HE has a 4.75 ERA in all home starts but is 5.22 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is coming off back to back starts where he gave up five earned runs, winning one and getting shutout in the other.  We expect Hughes to struggle tonight and let the Yankees end their five game losing streak.

The Yankees are 6-1 against Minnesota when playing at Target Field over the last three seasons and we see that trend continuing tonight.  The Yanks are 79-46 when playing as a favorite and 14-7 on the road with a low total of 7.5 or less.  Minnesota is 44-75 at home when coming off a loss and watch as they add another loss to that record this evening.

Play on the New York Yankees

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money

The Books opened the LA Dodgers as -180 favorites and despite over 70% of the action coming in on the Dodgers, the line has moved down to LA being favored by only -140.  We expect the public to load up on the Dodgers as we cash this underdog at the betting window!

The Dodgers are sitting at a much better 48-37 season then the 39-43 Cleveland Indians but we think the Indians are a bit undervalued in this road matchup. Cleveland is due for a win as they are coming off back to back shutouts.  They ended last series with a 3-0 loss against Seattle and opened up the Series last night against the Dodgers and 1-0 loss as small -125 favorites which seemed to be a trap by the books. They have only won two of their last nine matchups and are due for a good performance.

The Dodgers on the other hand are coming into this matchup off three straight wins, two of the three being shutouts.  They closed out the series against the Cardinals with a 6-0 shutout win and they also beat them 9-1 in the previous matchup.  We expect Beckett to have a poor start tonight and for the Indians to even out the series.

Josh Beckett is on the mound for the Dodgers and is coming off two very strong starts.  He didn’t give up a single earned run in a combined 14 innings in those past two starts and we expect him to struggle tonight and give up a few runs.  He does have a very strong 2.29 ERA and 1.018 WHIP at home but every pitcher has lousy starts and that is exactly what you will see tonight. Becket is only 8-15 TSR over the last two seasons and 11-20 TSR when starting as a favorite.  

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Justin Masterson who is starting for the Indians.  He hasn’t been having the greatest season with a poor 5.03 ERA and 1.538 WHIP but after that terrible start against the Diamondbacks where he gave up five earned runs in just four innings, we expect him to try to gain a little respect back with a strong start in tonight’s game.

Go against the public and cash the Indians at the betting window.  If you shop lines you can find the best odds over at Bovada with Cleveland +130.

Play on Cleveland

Tom Grassi 25* MLB Total of the Month

The Books have the Sunday Night Baseball Total set at 8.5 runs which seems a bit high for this prime time matchup.  The Public will be looking for this one to sail over but we see this one sliding right under the number.

Both pitchers are coming off terrible outings to say the least.  Talk about embarrassing starts, both pitchers barely made it through three innings. John Lackey who is starting for the Red Sox is coming off a very poor start against Seattle.  He gave up seven earned runs in 3.7 innings and they ended up losing 12-3 as small road dogs.  Chase Whitley is coming off a very similar start as he gave up not seven but eight runs in just 3.3 Innings and the Yanks ended up losing 8-3 as small road dogs against the Blue Jays. Look for both pitchers to bounce back with strong starts and giving up very few runs to hopefully gain a bit of respect after such lousy starts.

The Red Sox are not only 10-2 Under when coming off a one run win this season but they are also a perfect 11-0 under when on the road when coming off seven or more consecutive road games.  Lackey is 20-7 Under with a money line between -100 and -150 and 34-14 Under in all games over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are 50-26 Under when coming off a loss by two runs or less and will add another Under to that record tonight.

These teams have faced off six times at Yankee Stadium this season and five of the six went under the total.  We expect that trend to continue to tonight and end the week with another MLB Winner!

Take the Under

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money

The Books opened the Dodgers as -150 favorites and the public has jumped all over it.  There is over 70% of the Action on LA and despite all that public money the books have the Dodgers down to -138 at BetOnline. Best line is Cardinals +132 over at 5Dimes.

The Dodgers have been playing some solid baseball but after that close 1-0 win over the Cardinals yesterday to open up the series, we expect St Louis to even out the series with a win tonight. 

Martinez is starting for the Cardinals and has only started twice this season.  He received a winning decision in his last start which against the Phillies.  They won 5-3 as -150 home favorites and in his first start of the season he didn’t give up a single earned run and the they ended up beating the New York Mets 6-2 as big chalk -160 favorites. We expect another solid performance from Martinez tonight as he faces off against Ryu and the Dodgers.

Ryu is on the mound for LA and has been having a strong season.  He has a 3.06 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in all starts but tends to give up some runs Dodgers Stadium with a 5.29 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in all home starts.  He is coming off two very strong starts over San Diego and Colorado and is due for a bad performance.

The Cardinals are 30-23 when playing as underdogs of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons and 30-5 when revenging a loss to an opponent as a favorite.  They are 38-19 after a loss by two runs o less and 73-36 when coming off a loss. The Dodgers are not only 5-13 when coming off two or more consecutive wins this season but they are also 1-8 at home after back to back games where the bullpen didn’t give up any runs.

Go against the public in this one and cash the win at the betting window.

Play on St Louis Cardinals

Tom Grassi 25* MLB AL East Game of the Month

The Books opened the Red Sox as -115 favorites and despite about 62% of the action coming in on the Red Sox the Yankees are now small favorites at the betting window.

The Red Sox closed out the Seattle Series with a close 5-4 win after getting crushed in the first two games.  In the first game of the series against Seattle, they lost 12-3 and in the second they lost 8-2.  We expect them to struggle tonight against the Yanks after that lucky win.

The Yankees on the other hand are coming off a win over Toronto but prior to that they were in a bit of a funk and that win on Wednesday snapped their four game losing streak. Look for them to build off that road win over Toronto and keep the momentum moving through this series against the Red Sox.

Brandon Workman is starting for the Sox and has been having a solid season.  He has a 2.88 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in all starts and has pitched well on the road with a 3.24 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in all road starts.  But, he has only started five times so far this season, twice against Cleveland where the Sox lost both matchups, twice against Tampa Bay where they split, and once against Baltimore where the Sox won 1-0.  Look for him to struggle against the Yankees in this Friday night matchup.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Vidal Nuno who is on the mound for the Yankees.  He has been having a poor season and has only earned one winning decision but we expect him to have a solid matchup after two embarrassing starts.  In his last start which was against Baltimore, he gave up four earned runs in just six innings and the Yanks lost 6-1 as +100 home dogs and in the matchup prior to that terrible start, he gave up eight earned runs to Oakland and they lost 10-5 as +145 road dogs.  Look for him to bounce back from those two poor starts.

The Yankees are 5-2 so are this season against the Red Sox and have cashed three of four when playing at Yankee Stadium.  The Red Sox are only 17-24 when the money line is between -100 and -150 this season and they are 13-20 against division opponents. 

Get on the Yankees before the line moves up anymore as we expect it to rise a bit more before the first pitch!

Play on New York Yankees

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Afternoon Side Winner

The Angels were opened up as huge -200 favorites and despite about 75% of the action coming in on the Angels, the books have dropped the line all the way down to them being favored by only -165 over at 5Dimes.

The Twins swept the White Sox in a four game series but came back with two losing matchups to start this series against the Angels and are due for a strong performance.  We expect them to avoid the three game sweep tonight before they head over to Texas to finish off the six game road trip.

Weaver is starting for the Angels and is coming off a very solid start against Texas where he gave up only one run in eight innings pitched and the Angels ended up winning 3-2 as large -200 favorites. 

Looking back to the matchup prior to that excellent start, he gave up four earned runs in just six innings against the Cleveland Indians and they lost 4-3 as small -110 road favorites. Before that excellent start against the Rangers, Weaver gave up eight runs in only a combined 11 innings including that very poor start against Oakland where the Angels lost 7-1 as -135 home favorites.

The last time Weaver started against the Twins was back in 2013 where he gave up three earned runs in six innings and they lost the matchup 6-3 as large -160 favorites.  Look for a replay of that matchup as the public gets shocked and we cash a profitable win at the betting window.

Don’t side with the public and go grab the Twins at +160 over at BetOnline.

Play on Minnesota

Tom Grassi 25* MLB American League Game of the Month

The Books opened up the Los Angeles Angels as huge -195 favorites against the Minnesota Twins but despite about 70% of the action coming in on the Angels the line has moved down to as low as -165 over at Pinnacle. We are going against the public in this matchup and taking the Angels, and if you shop around you can find the best line over at 5Dimes with the Angels +160.

The Angels opened the series with a 8-6 win over the Twins as large -170 favorites but the Twins were looking pretty strong with a five run second inning to come back after giving up five to the Angels in the first.  The Angels scored two runs in the second to make it 7-5 and then the Twins could only bring in one final run in the fifth to make it a total of six runs for the night.  Look for another strong performance from the Twins and watch as the public is shocked as Minnesota cashes the +160 win at the betting window!

The Twins were on a nice little four game winning run moving into last nights matchup. They swept the series against the White Sox with four close wins but that run was ended last night in the first game of the new series.  The Angels on the other hand are coming into this matchup off four straight wins including that three game sweep over the Rangers and are due for a loss.

Minnesota’s 30 year old Yohan Pino is starting on the mound tonight after his major league debut on Thursday where he allowed only two runs and struck out seven in seven innings pitched.  We expect him to have another solid performance in this road start.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Garrett Richards who has been having a strong season with a 2.79 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in all starts.  He has a 0.95 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last three starts and he has earned a winning decision in three of those four and the one start where he didn’t receive a decision, the Angels beat the Braves 11-6.  He is due for a bad start and we expect it tonight.

Don’t side with the public and snag the Twins at +160 over at 5Dimes!

Play on Minnesota

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Customer Appreciation Play

The Dodgers are sitting second in the NL West with a 43-36 season record while the Royals are second in the AL Central with a 40-37 season record. The Dodgers are coming off a 2-0 shutout to even up the series after KC won the first one 5-3. 

The books opened this matchup with the Royals as -135 favorites and despite most of the public action coming in on the Dodgers (60% of the action), the line has moved up to as high as -145 at BetUS.  We expect the Royals to finish off the series with a win.

Taking a look at the pitching matchup, Dan Haren is on the mound for the Dodgers and James Shields is starting for KC.  Haren is having an average season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in all starts and is coming off a team loss to San Diego where he gave up three earned runs in just five innings and the Dodgers lost to the Padres 6-5. 

Shields on the other hand is having a pretty solid season overall with a 3.70 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in all starts and has a very solid team start record of 11 wins and only 5 losses so far this season. Shields is coming off a very poor start, where he gave up five earned runs and they ended up losing to Seattle 7-5 as -140 favorites.  Look for him to bounce back with a very solid home start this evening!

The Dodgers Bullpen has a below average 4.47 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in all road games and they are in a bad situation tonight after the Bullpen had a strong performance last night as they 4-9 this season after back to back games where the Bullpen gave up no runs. If Haren doesn’t give up plenty of runs, look for the bullpen to give away the win.  They are also only 18-24 when coming off a win and Haren has a poor 24-33 Team Start Record after a win over the last two seasons. 

The Royals are 26-12 when the money line is between -100 to -150 this season and Shields is 21-8 TSR in that same situation.  Look for Shields to come out strong in this matchup and have a very good outing.

Play on Kansas City 

Tom Grassi 25* MLB Double Dog of the Month

The Padres are coming off a very solid 6-0 shutout to open of the road series against the San Francisco Giants as +150 Road Dogs. We don’t expect anywhere near that type of performance from the Padres in the second game of the series. 

The Giants have been struggling as of late, and are due for a winner.  Tim Hudson is on the mound for the Giants and we expect him to have a bounce back performance after giving up seven earned run in just shy of five innings against the White sox in his last start.  Looking back to the previous start before that embarrassing outing, he didn’t give up a single earned run to Washington and the giants ended up winning that one 7-1 as -150 favorites. 

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Jesse Hahn who is coming off back to back wins including a 5-0 Shutout against the Mets where he didn’t give up a single run in six innings and the Padres won as small +120 road dogs. In his most recent start, he didn’t give up a single earned run in seven innings pitched and they won 4-1 over Seattle as middle of the road -145 favorites.  Hahn is due for a bad performance and we expect the Giants to score plenty of easy runs. 

Over the last three seasons, the Giants are 15-7 when playing against the Padres at AT&T Park. Hudson has a perfect 10-0 Team Start Record when playing as a favorite of -150 or more and 15-0 Team Start Record as a home favorite. The Padres are 10-22 against the run line when coming off a win and are 5-16 ATS so far this month.

The Giants will have no problem winning this matchup but why lay the -160 Chalk when you can get them at +135 on the Run line!

Play on San Francisco -1 ½ Runs

Tom Grassi 25* MLB Double Dog of the Month

The Oakland A’s suffered a tough loss on Sunday against the Boston Red Sox.  They will have no problem bouncing back after a five game win streak was snapped in that matchup where they lost 7-6.  They rallied for three runs in the eighth and two more in the ninth but just couldn’t get that final run to even things up.  Look for them to bounce back with a huge win tonight in this new series against the Mets.

The Mets are coming off back to back wins against the Miami Marlins.  They had a nice +110 win on Sunday where they crushed the Marlins 11-5 and looking at the previous win, they shutout Miami 4-0 as +105 road dogs.  That short winning run ends tonight as the A’s have an epic performance an easily cash the -1 ½ Runline Win. 

Kazmir is on the mound for Oakland and has been having a very strong season.  He has a 2.08 ERA and 0.947 in all starts, a 2.62 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in all road starts and has been pitching very well lately with a 0.90 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in his last three starts.  Look for him to continue his winning run tonight as he has earned a winning decision in his last three starts and the A’s have won five straight with Kazmir on the mound.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Bartolo Colon who also is having a strong season.  He is coming off a very strong start agains the Cardinals where he gave up only one run in eight innings and the Mets ended up winning 3-2 as +120 road dogs.  Colon has won five of his last six starts but we see expect a lousy start from him tonight.

Last season Kazmir started against the Mets where he didn’t give up a single run in six innings pitched and the A’s beat the Mets 8-1.  Look for a replay of that matchup and an easy run line win at the betting window.

Play on Oakland -1 ½ Runs

Tom Grassi 25* NL East Game of the Month

The Books opened the Phillies as -110 favorites and the public has fallen into the trap with over 60% of the action coming in on them.  Despite all that action on the Phillies, the line has actually moved to the Marlins being -110 favorites which seems to be the sharp side of this NL East matchup.

The Marlins have been in a bit of a funk lately but are still sitting ahead of the Phillies in the NL East standings.  The Marlins are third in the division with a 37-38 season record while the Phillies sit dead last with a 34-40 season record. 

Both teams are coming into this matchup off back to back losses. Miami lost the two last games of the series against the New York Mets including a 11-5 lost as -120 favorites yesterday and a 4-0 shutout loss as -115 favorites on Saturday.  The Phillies lost the last two games of the series against the Cardinals including a 5-3 loss on Sunday and 4-1 loss on Saturday. We expect that losing run to continue for the Phillies while the Marlins come out with a win at the betting window.

Eovaldi is on the mound for the Marlins and after starting the season on an average note, he has been in a funk.  He is coming off a loss to the Cubs where he gave up five earned runs in six innings and the three games prior to that start, Eovaldi didn’t receive a decision but the Marlins lost all three matchups. Taking a look at the stats, he is 3.95 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in all starts this season. He has been struggling as of late with a 6.87 ERA in his last three starts but when playing starting against his Division he has a 2.51 ERA and 0.943 WHIP.  Look for him to come out tonight with a strong start after that embarrassing 6-1 loss to the Cubs last Wednesday.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Roberto Hernandez who has also been having a below average season. He has only received three winning decisions and has suffered five losing decisions.  He is coming off a Win over the Atlanta Braves where he gave up a decent amount of runs, five in six innings, but the Phillies won 10-5 as +165 road dogs.  We don’t expect another big win from the Phillies.

Don’t side with the public and cash the Marlins at the betting window to start off the week!

Play on Miami

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money 

We took another pass yesterday with premium selections but released a Free Play on the Cleveland Indians since that was the only matchup we found any value. For today we are releasing another MLB Smart Money which is on Pittsburgh.

The Books opened up the Reds as -130 favorites and despite over 80% of the public money coming in on Cinci and Cueto the line has dropped down to -120 at most books, we expect Pitt to shock the public with a win at the betting window in this home matchup. If you shop around you can find the best moneyline over at Bovada where Pitt is +112.

Both teams are coming into this matchup with a day off. The Reds are coming off a very strong performance against the  Brewers, where they won 13-4 as small 115 road dogs but we don’t expect them to build any momentum, especially with that day off. The Bullpen had a solid night, not giving up a single run which puts Cinci in a bad spot, since they are 11-21 in that situation. 

Cueto is on the mound for the Reds and has been having an epic season.  He has a 1.85 ERA and 0.775 WHIP in all starts and has even been pitching very well away from home with a 2.09 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in all road starts.  He is coming off a shutout win over the Dodgers where he didn’t give up a single run in six innings pitched, but you can’t win them all and we expect a shockingly poor performance from him and a sloppy bullpen to give up a few extra runs and give away the win to Pitt.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Brandon Cumpton who is starting for Pitt.  He isn’t having the best season, and is coming off a few bad starts with a 9.64 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in his last three starts but we expect him to bounce back and gain some respect after a strong outing tonight.  Looking back, Cumpton has a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP when starting against Cinci and we see him and the Pirates coming out strong tonight after that close loss to Miami back on Sunday.

Go against the public players and take Pitt +112 over at Bovada.

Play on Pittsburgh

Tom Grassi 20* NBA Customer Appreciation Play

We passed on Game 1 of the NBA Finals and came back in Game 2 with an Easy Finals Game of the Year Winner on the Miami Heat where they had no problem covering the 4.5 points as they won the matchup outright. With Miami at home and 4.5 point favorites in Game 3, we took another pass. We expect another very strong performance from the Heat tonight and we are going with them despite the large amount of points for an NBA Finals game.

The Books opened the Heat as five point favorites and it quickly jumped to 5.5 but if you shop around you can still find them at five over at Bovada and BetUS.

Turnovers seemed to be a very big factor in the Game 3 Matchup with the Heat giving up 20 turnovers and the Spurs only 12. Lebron alone gave up a decent amount of turnovers and we expect him to bounce back in Game 4 with an absolutely epic performance. We also see the Heat showing a little more pride on Defense. They let the Spurs hit almost 60% from the field (59.4%) while they were at the lower 50% range (51.6).

The Heat need this win before heading back to San Antonio and with that being said, we feel they should have no problem covering the decent amount of points at the betting window!

Play on Miami

Tom Grassi 25* NBA Finals Total of the Year

This is going to a great NBA Finals Game 3 matchup.  The Books opened the Heat as four point favorites and the line has already started climbing. It now sits at 4.5 and might even see five at a few books.  The Heat look pretty solid but that may be a few too many points in a matchup that is going to be close all the way to the final seconds.  That is why we are staying away from the side and going with the total.

The Books opened the total at 198 points and despite the public players (66% of the action on OVER) trying to hit the zig-zag theory with the over, the line has bumped down half a point to 197.5. The Total went over in Game 1 as the Spurs got to take control of the matchup after the A/C situation and Lebron James out of the Game. In Game 2 the total slid right under the 198.5 point number and the public players were shocked once again. If you shop around, you can still find the total at 198 points over at Bovada.

Eric Spoelstra made a comment about showing pride in your defense back in Game 2 when the Heat were not showing 100% effort on “D”.  As we all know, a good defense is what wins games and we expect both teams to tighten up on those efforts which will keep this total under the number at the betting window.

The Spurs are 63-41 Under after a close loss by three points or less and the Heat are a perfect 4-0 Under when coming off back to back games as an underdog.

Stay away from the side and go against the public with the total!

Play on the Under

Tom Grassi 25* NBA Finals Game of the Year

The Offshore Books opened the Spurs as 3.5 point favorites and it has already moved up to as high as -4.5 point favorites at a few books. The Public is going to be shocked when the Spurs lose this one outright as this play looks like it could be strong enough for some +165 money line Action but we are just taking the points!

The Spurs got a lucky break with the A/C Situation back in Game 1 which caused Lebron James to miss a large portion of the game.  The Moment before Lebron cramped up, the Heat were only down by 2 points and looked like they were starting to build some momentum.  The Heat ended up losing 110-95 and missing the cover as they were getting around five points. 

In Game 1, the Heat shot just under 50% from the field while the Spurs had a very strong offensive performance, hitting almost 60% (58.8%).  The Spurs were also 13-25 behind the arc for a 52% while Miami was only 12 of 29 for 41%.  We expect the Heat to come back in this revenge situation and cash a huge win at the betting window with an epic offensive performance.

The Heat are not only 31-18 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last two seasons but they are an almost perfect 7-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series.

Take the Points and cash this easy winner at the betting window!

Play on Miami

Tom Grassi 15* MLB UnderDog of the Week

The Books opened the Brewers as -160 favorites and despite over 70% of the action coming in on Milwaukee, the line has bumped down to -150 over at Pinnacle and -152 at BetOnline. The Public will be all over the Brewers since they have been having a much better season when the Twins.  The Brewers are 35-23 and the Twins are a few games under .500 with a 26-29 season record.  We going against the public in this one and if you shop lines, you can find the Twins at +145 over at 5Dimes where they seem to have some of the best MLB Underdog Lines.

The Twins came into last night off a solid 7-2 against the Yankees as +120 road dogs but ended up losing 6-2 as much larger +160 dogs in the first game of the new series against the Brewers. Look for them to bounce back and shock the public with another nice underdog road win. 

The Brewers are coming into this matchup winning five of their last six games but looking back that one loss was a 8-0 shutout to the Cubs as -140 home favorites.  Gallardo is starting for the Brewers and is having an average start to the 2014 season.  He is 3-3 and has a team start record of 6-5.  He seems to be a bit over valued in this matchup tonight as the Brewers were underdogs in 7 of those 11 starts.  In his last start, which was against Baltimore, he gave up only three earned runs in almost seven innings and the Brewers won the matchup 8-3 as -125 home favorites.  We don’t expect back to back wins from Gallardo.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Sam Deduno.  He has only five starts this season and the Twins only won two of those five, but we expect a strong performance after that tough loss to Texas in his last start.  He gave up four earned runs in just 5.3 inning and we expect him to bounce back with a solid performance. Last season, Deduno cashed a nice win against the Brewers. He gave up only one earned run in seven innings and the Twins beat the Brewers 4-1 as +120 underdogs. Look for a replay of last season’s win.

Over the last three seasons, the Twins have cashed 7 of 11 matchups against the Brewers and they are 4-2 SU against them when playing at Miller Park. Coming off that 6-2 loss puts the Twins in a solid situation since they are 11-5 SU when coming off a loss by four runs or more this season.

Don’t side with the public, and take the +145 Twins over at 5Dimes.

Play on Minnesota

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money

The Miami Marlins are getting very little respect in this matchup against Tampa Bay.  The Rays are sitting at a 23-34 season while the Miami Marlins are right at .500 with a 28-28 season record.  It seems like a trap by the books with the Rays being the small favorite in this series opener. 

Tampa Bay is coming into this matchup ice cold, off six straight losses including a 4-0 shutout yesterday against Boston.  Alex Cobb is starting for the Rays and so far this season, he has had five starts.  The Rays only won two of those five starts and looking back to his last start which was against Toronto, he gave up six earned runs in only five innings.  He has a terrible 10.80 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in Night starts and 4.50 ERA when starting on the road. 

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Randy Wolf who has only started once so far this season and it turned out to be a rough night for Miami.  He gave up four earned runs in just five innings and they ended up losing 7-1 to Milwaukee as small +115 underdogs at the betting window. Look for him to come out with a strong performance tonight, to make up for that terrible first outing last week.

The Rays are 9-1 against Miami over the last three seasons but we see that trend fading tonight as the Miami Marlins get the win. Tampa Bay is only 13-21 SU when coming off a loss and 2-11 SU after getting shut out.  Miami on the other hand is  20-11 SU in all home games this season and should have no problem cashing another win at the Marlins Park!

Play on Miami

Tom Grassi 25* MLB Inter-league Game of the Month

The Books opened up the Cleveland Indians as very undervalued -125 favorites and the line has just bumped up slightly to -135 at a few books.  The Indians opened up the series against the Rockies with a solid win last night and we expect them to build off that win with another easy win tonight. 

The Indians were stuck in a bit of a funk in their last series which was against the Chicago White Sox.  They lost all three games and they closed out the four game series against Baltimore with a loss to make it four in a row up until yesterday’s win.

Franklin Morales is on the mound for the Rockies and he has not been having the best season.  He has a pretty lousy 5.75 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in all starts this season and 5.91 ERA in all road starts.  He is coming off a very poor start to the Atlanta Braves where he gave up five earned runs in just four innings and the Rockies ended up getting shutout 7-0.

Trevor Bauer is starting for the Indians and we expect a strong performance out of him tonight.  He is coming off a loss, giving up four runs in just four innings but does have a solid 3.86 ERA in all starts this season and 2.25 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in all home starts. 

Colorado is not only 33-67 SU when playing as a road underdog but they have only won 12 of 45 inter-league games over the last three seasons.  The Indians on the other hand are 46-20 SU when playing as a home favorite and 33-11 SU as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Cleveland is 67-42 in all home games over the last two seasons and are 45-22 SU playing at Progressive field after a win.

Play on Cleveland

Tom Grassi 20* NBA Playoff Signature Selection

This is a very important Game 5 matchup for the San Antonio Spurs as the series is tied at 2-2 and they need this win or they will be heading into OKC down 3-2 where the Thunder has had no problem at Chesapeake Energy Arena. OKC won both home matchups, 106-97 in Game 3 and 105-92 in Game 4.

Look for the Spurs to bounce back with a strong home performance like they had in the first two games of the series.  In Game 1, the Spurs beat OKC 122-105 as only six point home favorites and don’t forget about Game 2 where they had an epic performance, winning 112-77 as only five point home favorites.

In the last two games of the series, the Spurs hit just under 40% from the field and are due for a strong offensive matchup.  In the first two games of the series they hit into the 50% range including a very solid 57.5% in Game 1.

The Spurs are 40-10 SU at home so far this season and tend to play very well at Silver Spurs Arena.  They are 70-46 ATS in all home Playoff games and are 85-59 ATS off a road loss by ten points or more. Look for them to bounce back after those two losses, both straight up and against the spread with a nice cover at the betting window tonight!

Lay the few points with the Spurs at home.

Play on San Antonio

Tom Grassi 25* National League Game of the Month

The 27-24 Colorado Rockies are not getting much respect against the 22-26 Phillies tonight.  To take the Phillies -120 seems like a trap by the books.  The Offshore Books have opened the Phillies as -115 favorites and the public has already pushed it to -125 over at BetUS.

The Rockies are coming off back to back terrible outings.  They opened up this series with an embarrassing loss yesterday to Philadelphia, getting shutout 9-0.  Back on Sunday they finished the series against the Braves with another poor performance that led to a 7-0 shutout loss. Look for them to bounce back with a nice win here tonight as they are due.

De La Rosa is on the mound for the Rockies and is coming off a very solid start against the San Diego Padres, not giving up a single run in seven innings and the Rockies cashed the 3-1 win.  He is coming into this matchup with some momentum, off five straight wins. He has a team start record of 14-4 when the money line is between +125 and -125 and a Perfect 17-0 when coming off a team loss.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Hamels who has a very poor team start record of 7-13 when coming off a win.  He hasn’t pitched very well at home yet this season, with a poor 6.11 ERA and 1.641 WHIP. We expect another poor outing for Hamels.

Don’t side with the public and look for the Rockies to cash an easy bounce back win over the Phillies.

Play on Colorado 

Tom Grassi 20* NBA Playoffs Signature Selection

The Books opened the Thunder as -2.5 point favorites and most of the action is coming in on the Spurs (about 62%).  We expect a huge bounce back win from the Thunder after that embarrassing matchup they had on Wednesday where they got blown out in Game 2.  They lost by 35 points for a terrible 112-77 final score as five point road dogs.

Oklahoma City was only 39% from the field while the Spurs hit 41 of 82 for 50%.  Oklahoma City couldn’t find the sweet spot behind the arc either, hitting only two three pointers for a terrible 2-20 (only 10%).  OKC just couldn’t get it done, hitting only five of ten free throws for a terrible 50%.  The Spurs dominated Game 2 of the series and we expect the Thunder to bounce back and cash a huge win at the betting window for Game 3 to make up for that loss!

OKC is 8-1 ATS against the Spurs when playing at home over the last three seasons and 27-14 ATS after losing two of their last three games.  After such a poor performance, the Thunder is due for an epic victory to gain a little respect back. Lay the small amount of points with the Thunder at home!

Play on Oklahoma City

Tom Grassi 20* MLB Smart Money

The Books opened the Cardinals as -165 home favorites but despite over 70% of the action coming in on the Cardinals, the line has moved towards the D-Backs with St Louis now -147 Betting Favorites at FiveDimes.  We have found the D-backs at +150 at BetUS and are going against the public action.

Wade Miley is on the mound for the D-backs and he is 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA but we see him having another strong road performance.  He has struggled with home starts this season (7.14 Home ERA) but is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts away from Chase Field. He is coming off a tough start against the Dodgers on Friday where this left-hander gave up four runs and two homers in just six innings for a 7-0 home loss. We expect him to come out strong and bounce back from that poor start over the weekend.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Lynn who is 5-2 with a solid 3.67 ERA.  He allowed two runs in seven innings against the Braves which followed going 0-2 with an above average 4.24 ERA over his previous four outings. After that strong 5-2 Win over Atlanta on Friday, we see Lynn coming out with a poor performance.

The Public will be all over the Cardinals at anywhere from -145 to -170 but they will be shocked once again as the D-backs help us cash another Underdog Winner at the Betting Window. Get them in over at BetUS for the best line!

Play on Arizona

Tom Grassi 25* AL Central Game of the Month

The Books opened Detroit as -150 favorites and despite the public all over Verlander (over 80% of the action), the line has dropped down to -130 at a few books.  We expect a strong home performance from the Indians tonight at Progressive field.

Detroit leads the AL Central with a 27-13 record and the Indians are sitting at the bottom of the division with a 20-25 losing record.  With that said, the public will be all over the Tigers and Verlander tonight and we expect them to get let down with another winner from the Indians tonight. 

Cleveland opened up the series last night with a 5-4 win against Detroit and we see them building off that win with another one.  That win snapped their four game losing streak.

Justin Verlander takes the mound for the Tigers and is having a decent season but has a just average 4.33 ERA in all road starts this season.  In his last start he gave up five earned runs in just six innings but Detroit ended up winning 7-5 as -115 road favorites.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Trevor Bauer who has had only one start so far this season which was against San Diego.  He gave up only one earned run in six innings but took a loss as the Padres scored two runs and the Indians could only get one run on the board.  Look for Trevor Bauer to come out strong tonight in his second start of the season!

We are going against the public again tonight and we expect the Indians to make it two in a row against Detroit!

Play on the Cleveland Indians

Tom Grassi 25* NBA Conf. Finals Total of the Year

The NBA Conference Finals are finally here and the Thunder is at Spurs tonight for Game 1.  The books opened the total at 210 points and despite over 70% of the action coming in on the Over, the line has actually bumped down a point or two to 208.5 points at most books.  We expect the public to load up on the Over and be shocked when this one slides right under the number!

The Thunder is coming off three straight unders against the Clippers and the Spurs are coming off back to back Unders against Portland. Towards the beginning of April, the Spurs got beat by Oklahoma City 106-94, sending the total under the 206 point number.  That was with the thunder shooting almost 50% from the field and the Spurs hitting over 40% behind the three points line. 

Both teams are averaging right around 105 points per game which would put this total right around the opening number of 210 points but we expect some strong defense from both squads which will assist in keeping the total amount of points below average. Throughout the Playoffs, the Thunder has gone over the total in 7 of 16 matchups while the Spurs have gone over in 8 of 12.  Look for that trend to fade for the Spurs as this one goes under.

Leave the side alone and go against the public with the sharp bet in this Game 1 matchup.

Take the Under

Tom Grassi 25* American League Game of the Month

The Books opened the Blue Jays as -115 favorites but despite over 70% of the action coming in on the Blue Jays, the Rangers are now a very small favorite at a few books. We expect a strong performance from the Rangers tonight and to easily cash them at the betting window!

The Public will be all over Mark Buehrle as he looks to continue his strong start and become the first eight-game winner in the major leagues but we don’t see that happening.  Toronto is coming off a nice series opener against the Rangers, with a 2-0 shutout as +160 road dogs.  The Rangers are coming off three losses, including an embarrassing 8-0 shutout against the terrible Houston Astros and are due for a winner.

Robbie Ross is on the mound for the Rangers and is looking to gain some respect back after having three very poor starts to the 2014 season.  He gave up six runs in both of his first starts and the Rangers ended up losing 12-1 in both matchups.  In his most recent start which was against the Boston Red Sox, Ross gave up five earned runs in almost seven innings and the Rangers lost 5-2 which seemed to be slightly less embarrassing then both 12-1 losses.  Watch as Ross gets out of this funk tonight and leads the Rangers to a win to break their three game losing streak and to even out the series with the Blue Jays.

Toronto has suffered a struggling bullpen with a season ERA of 5.28 and 5.79 on the road.  Texas on the other hand has had a decent bullpen and we see them coming out and assisting Ross in the win tonight. Don’t side with the public on this one and bet the sharp money on the Rangers.

Play on Texas