The Capitals are very likely done in this series. They know it. They will still put up a good fight but their depleted group of defensemen won't be able to stop the potent Rangers attack. New York has scored 3 or more goals in every game, more than 3 in 2 of the games. The Rangers are deadly on the power-play and they're even dangerous when killing penalties.

There may be some extra penalties too, as the Capitals are out for revenge from a big hit that injured one of their players. Washington has yet to get any production from Ovechkin, one of the best goal scorers the game has seen. Don't be surprised when he finally makes an appearance in the boxscore. Also, the Capitals will pull their goalie extra early, should they find themselves trailing. Go with the Over!

You likely saw what happened in the first 2 games. They both sailed over the total. Tonight, we work with a very high total of 6.5. We don't even have to lay heavy juice to get it. Winnipeg is 15-9-3 to the under when playing in a road game where where the total is 6 or more.

The Jets only allow 2.5 goals a game on the road. The Avalanche concede just 2.7 goals per game at home. The goal scoring barrage comes to an end tonight. Go with the Under.

The Jets seemed like they'd never lose there for awhile but the Avalanche ended their winning streak in Game 2. The magic of the winning streak is now over. Worse, the Jets are now away from the comforts of Winnipeg. Instead, they are in hostile Colorado where the Avalanche have a 31-10 record.

When their backs against the wall, the Avalanche responded with a big win in Game 2. This is a playoff-tested team. The Game 2 win gave them control of home ice advantage in the series and they're not about to just relinquish that. The Avalanche outscore teams by 2.2 goals per game here. This is a pivotal game and they will not be denied!

Game 1 got out of hand. A 7-6 final. Hockey playoffs are funny though. You can have a game like that and see the next one play out completely differently. The benefit of that Game 1 result is that the Game 2 total is now jacked right up. The Avalanche are 2-0 to the under the past 2 years when trailing in a playoff series.

The Avalanche are 20-10 to the under their last 30 tries when playing with revenge. The Jets are 11-7 to the under after allowing 4 goals or more. The Avalanche still allow just 3.1 goals per game and the Jets still allow a measly 2.5 goals per game, 2.2 gpg over their last 5. Go with the Under!

The Flyers weren't given much hope at the beginning of the season. They played better than expected, gained everyone's respect and appeared to be playoff bound. Then they slumped and their playoff chances took a big hit. They're giving it one last kick at the can and have won back to back games. They are at home tonight and they have had the past 2 days off. They catch Washington play8ing with 0 days rest.

The Capitals have played a lot of hockey over the past 2 weeks. The last time that they played with 0 days rest, they lost by 2 goals. The Flyers need a win in regulation. They are excited again and playing their best hockey. They are 2-1 against the Capitals this season. With Washington off last night's upset win, the Flyers will get it done tonight!

The Senators and their fans had hoped for a much better season. The players still have pride and they know that their fans still love the team. This is their home finale and they are going to go all out to get the victory.

We want to leave our best effort for our fans and leave a good taste in their mouth moving forward into next year," Senators captain Brady Tkachuk said. "Create some excitement, create some energy for hopefully a big season next year. But, most importantly, for a year that's been a lot of ups and downs, just to leave on a high note with the people that have supported us through thick and thin."

Ottawa is off a win at Tampa and has won 2 of 3. The Senators are 8-2 the past 10 meetings, 2-0 this season. The Canadiens are 13-33 their last 36 tries in the revenge role. They are also 19-47 their last 66 tries with home revenge. This one is all Ottawa! **ATLANTIC DIV GOM**

The Dallas Stars are the best team in hockey's Western Conference this season and they are on a mission to lock down first place. They can do that with a win tonight. The Jets are battling for a chance to have home ice advantage in the first round. They have an even bigger game against Colorado coming up Saturday though. That's the one they really need and will be getting excited about.

The Jets are 6-8 their last 14 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record. They are 24-38 (-14) their last 62 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Both teams have excellent goalies but Dallas has better scorers. The Jets score 2.9 goals per game on the road. The Stars score 3.9 goals per game at home. Dallas goalie Oettinger is 8-0-0 with a pair of shutouts his last 8 starts. He has posted a 1.63 goals-against average and a .939 save percentage in those games. Go with Dallas!

Both teams are battling for the final playoff spot. The Devils are well-rested and the Penguins are coming off a road win over the Rangers last night. Advantage New Jersey. In 10 tries with 3 or more days rest, the Devils are 7-3. When off a win by 2 or more goals, the Penguins are 9-13 (-9.1).

The Devils are 8-2 (+7.9) their last 10 meetings with the Penguins, 2-0 this season. The Devils are also 19-14 after allowing 4 or more goals. They fell behind Pittsburgh with the Penguins winning last night but the teams will continue to play leap-frog again tonight. **METRO DIV GOM**

Both teams need this game. The Jets need it more though as they are stuck in a losing streak. It needs to be stopped today! This will mark the Jets' 4th straight home game. They are 10-1 (+8.4) after playing their previous 3 games at home. They are 30-11 (+17.8) their last 41 tries in that situation!

The Kings build up their record against bad teams. They are 16-19 against teams with a winning record. They are 53-71 their last 124 tries against winning teams! OFf a loss to Calgary last game. the Los Angeles coach stated: "We were a step behind." The Jets are healthier than the Kings. Tonight they will also be better than them!

The Bruins are one of the best teams in hockey. They could even hoist the Cup this year. They're not very good when playing 2 games in 2 days though. Off a win over the Panthers last night, they will not be able to complete the state of Florida sweep tonight. Boston is only 4-6 when playing with 0 days rest.

The Lightning, 7-2 in March and 6-1 their last 7, come in well-rested. They had the last 2 nights off. They have taken 2 of 3 meetings against the Bruins this season, winning 5-4 here at Tampa. They are playing great and they will be fresh. Let's go Lightning!

This is a great price on Toronto. The Maple Leafs are off a loss to Carolina, a top level opponent. They will be angry and fired when they encounter a weaker New Jersey club. Toronto is 8-2 (+5.2) their last 10 tries, when playing against a team with a losing record. The Maple Leafs are also 9-1 the last 10 meetings with the Devils.

The Devils are off a 4-0 victory but they are an atrocious 25-47 (-36.6) their last 72 tries, after a win by 2 goals or more. This season, they are 4-17 (-20.4) when off a win by 2 or more goals! Give me the better team on home ice!

The Red Wings need a victory and Columbus is the right opponent to get one against. Detroit is already 2-0 against the Blue Jackets this season. The Blue Jackets have been bad all year and they have lost 4 of their last 5. They have many injuries and nothing to play for.

The Red Wings are still waiting for the return of Dylan Larkin but otherwise are quite healthy. This is a game which they cannot afford to lose. The Red Wings lost last game but that was on the road and they were playing with 0 days rest. They have been much stronger at home all season and they won their last game here 4-1. This game will be all Detroit!

Chicago has no home ice advantage. The Blackhawks are also at a scheduling disadvantage. They lost at Washington yesterday. The Hawks are 2-8, when playing on back-to-back days. They are 7-30 (-14) with 0 days rest, for the last 3 years. Over that time, they are 15-58 (-35.2) versus division opponents.

Arizona hasn't quit fighting. The Coyotes beat Detroit 4-0 last game and have won 3 of their last 5. They will be playing with revenge as the Hawks beat them less than a week ago, at Arizona. They will be determined not to lose 2 in a row to the worst team in the league and they won't! Coyotes win and improve to 15-12 against losing teams. *CENTRAL DIV GOM

Different teams react differently to different amounts of days in between games. Many teams struggle with no rest. Others thrive. Some are at their best with 1 or 2 days rest, others do better with 3 or more. The Ducks have had the past 2 days off and that is NOT a favorable situation for them. Anaheim is 0-7 this season with 2 days rest in between games. Over the past 3 seasons, the Ducks are 10-36 (-24.8) with 2 days rest.

Over that time, Anaheim is also 15-44 after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous game. The Senators, 4-3 with 3 or more days rest, play with revenge from a home loss to the Ducks. They are 27-18 their last 45 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season and they will get it done for us tonight!

The Predators are really hot at the moment. They've been beating up on bad teams though. Some of their recent wins came against teams like Ottawa, San Jose and Anaheim. Now, they will take on the one of the best in the league. Also, many of the Predators recent wins have come on the road. They are rather rare in that they are stronger on the road than at home.

The Predators did beat the Avalanche in this season's first meeting. Colorado has won its past few visits here though. Also, the Avalanche are 15-5 (+8.4) their last 20 in the revenge role, 53-25 (+10.6) over the long haul. The Avalanche won their last game 5-0 after winning their previous one 5-1. They are 12-5 their past 17 tries off a shutout win and they'll get it done for us again today! **Central GOM**

Both these Metro Division rivals have struggled a bit of late. The Flyers are 2-4 their last 6 games. The Capitals are 1-2 their last 3. The Flyers are off a big 6-2 win though and the Capitals are off a big 8-3 defeat. Both are battling for the playoffs. I've of the strong opinion that Philadelphia will make it two in a row.

The Flyers have been better than Washington this season. An ability to play well on the road has been key. The Flyers outscore teams by a 3.2 to 2.8 average in their road games. The Capitals get outscored by an average of 3.0 to 2.7 at home.

Each team has had 2 days off, a scheduling setup which should favor the Flyers. Philadelphia is 25-20 (+11.9) its last 45 tries, when playing with 2 days rest. Washington is 18-21 (-7.1) when doing so. The Flyers are 3-0 against the Capitals since the start of 2023. With home ice no advantage and with Washington dealing with numerous injuries, Philadelphia is the winner. *Metro Div GOM*

The wheels have come off for the Islanders. They are 23-34 overall, 10-18 on the road. A dismal 7-17 (-15.3) record against Western Conference opposition hasn't helped their cause. Now, they play on the road against one of the best teams from the West. That spells trouble.

The Stars are 17-11 at home. They score more than 4 goals per game here. The Islanders score less than 3 per game on the road. The Stars won their last game but had lost several before that. They will be inspired to make it 2 in a row and they will also be playing with revenge from a loss at Long Island. Dallas wins big.

The Wild visited here on December 10th, the last time that these teams faced each other. At the time, the Kraken were off to a terrible start. They'd dropped 7 straight going into the Minnesota game and they were off a loss versus Tampa the previous night. The Wild were only to happy to kick the Kraken when they were down. With Seattle playing its 2nd game in 2 days, Minnesota won 3-0.

Things are different now. The Kraken just easily beat the best team in the West on Thursday, a 5-2 win over Vancouver. That was their 3rd win in 4 games and they had yesterday off. Not so for Minnesota. The Wild are off a 4-2 upset of Edmonton. They are 2-7 when playing with 0 days rest. Seattle settles the score.

Ottawa couldn't even beat Chicago last game, or Anaheim before that. The Senators are 32-51 (-17) the last 3 years, after a non-conference game. Over that time frame, they are also 41-61 (-16.2) in the revenge role, 8-17 (-11.2) their last 25. The Senators are 35-66 their last 101 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record.

The Lightning ran into a red hot Florida team last game and suffered the consequences. They will be happy to face a bad team like Ottawa which they always beat here. Tampa is 67-30 (+14.8) its last 98 tries, when playing against a team with a losing record. Lay the price and look for Tampa to come out on top. **ATLANTIC DIV GOY**

San Jose returns home from a road trip. The first game back is difficult. The Sharks are missing some key players. The Sharks are 23-41 (-9.1) their last 64, after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. The Sharks are also 9-25 their last 34 tries, after a win by 2 goals or more.

The Sharks only score 2.2 goals per home game. The Blue Jackets average 3 goals per road game. The Blue Jackets scored 11 goals, including 6 here at San Jose, in sweeping last season's 2 games. They do it again tonight!

Great price on the home underdog Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres just smashed the LA Kings 7-0 on Tuesday. They have scored 5 or more goals in 3 of their last 5 games. Off one of their biggest wins in years, they are feeling good about themselves and can't wait to get back on the ice.

The Florida Panthers won again last night. Off 3 straight wins, they have been playing well. The problem is that they are only 13-18 (-11.2) their last 31 tries when playing with 0 days rest.

The Sabres are 4-2 their past 6 tries off a shutout win. They are also 17-3-1 when scoring first in games this season and their starting goalie Luukkonen has 3 shutouts (1.60 GAA and .941 save percentage) in his last 12 games. Let's Go, Buffalo!

Here is a case of 2 teams going in different directions. The Minnesota Wild have won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 8. The Arizona Coyotes are 0-6 their last 6 games. With 28 goals allowed in those 6 games, at least 3 in each, the Coyotes can't keep the puck out of the net. None of Minnesota's last 7 opponents have scored more than 3 goals.

The Wild have been waiting for this game and not just because Arizona is struggling. The Coyotes humiliated them 6-0 at Minnesota in January. At the time, the Wild were mired in a 1-7-1 stretch and they had just gotten Kaprizov back from injury for his first game back. Now the healthier and hotter team, the Wild will take advantage of the winnable road game and avenge last month's blowout. **CENTRAL GOY**

These teams both have trouble scoring at times. The Coyotes average 2.8 goals per game on the road. The Flyers average 2.8 goals per game at home. This season's first meeting had three first period goals but still only finished at 4-1.

The Flyers may have lost their previous starting netminder for a while but they are still getting exemplary goal-tending. They've conceded only 4 total goals thier last 3 games. None of those finished with more than 5 combined goals. Samuel Ersson has been sharp and his backup Cal Petersen came through with a strong performance when called upon last game. The surging Flyers will make scoring difficult for an Arizona team which is missing some attacking pieces. That will help keep this game under the total!

The Hurricanes are an elite team. They responded to their 3-2 loss against Vancouver by hammering Colorado, one of the best teams in hockey, by a 5-2 score. They are a profitable 65-37 the last few seasons, after scoring 4 or more goals in their previous game.

The Devils are missing a number of important players right now. The missing defense is leading to a lot of goals allowed. They gave up 5 goals last game. That's 28 goals allowed in their last 6 games, a minimum of 3 in each. That many goals allowed won't cut it against a Carolina club which has conceded 2 or less in 4 of its last 5 games, 3 in the other.

The Hurricanes own the Devils here. They are 7-1 the last 8 meetings in Raleigh. Nothing changes today.

The Penguins are 54-33 to the under the last few seasons, 13-10 this year, when playing on the road with a total of 6 or more. The Wild are 14-9 to the under at home, when the total was 6 or more.

Both teams are playing a low-scoring brand of hockey since the All Star Break. The Penguins last 3 games, all unders, have averaged, 3.3 goals. Minnesota's last 3 games, also all unders, have averaged 4.33 goals. The Wild are now 16-8 to the under their last 24 in the month of February.

Remember that Minnesota goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury played for the Penguins for many years. The under trend continues for another night!

If the playoffs started today, both these teams would be on the outside looking in. Washington still believes and expects to make a playoff push. Montreal is further back and knows its chances are bleak. The recent trade of center Sean Monahan for draft picks shows they're already thinking about the future. With Brendan Gallagher, another center, serving a suspension, the Habs are weak up the middle.

The Capitals were struggling before the break but are going to be ready to go tonight. Ovechkin will lead the way. The Capitals captain commented: "Right now you can see everybody's fresh, everybody's happy to be back and Tuesday's going to be a great day to play hockey." The Capitals are 3-0 the last 3 meetings here, outscoring Montreal 18-6. They will make it 4 in a row tonight.

Sometimes, you need to take what the books are giving you. These teams never have totals of 7 when they play each other. A glance at the past 10 meetings reveals most 6.5s. The last meeting had a total of 6 and it finished with 6. We're getting a whole extra goal tonight.

The Red Wings have allowed 2 goals or less in consecutive games and 5 of their last 7. The Senators have allowed 3 or less in 6 of their last 7. This game goes Under!

Here's a situation where Carolina playing 2 games in 2 days works in our favor. If the Hurricanes were not in that situation, they would be laying a far greater price. Can they win 2 games in 2 days? Absolutely. They just beat a much better team last night. They won't squander that by giving away a winnable game against an opponent which they dominate here.

The Hurricanes may be playing 2 games in 2 days but they are on home ice and they are far healthier than the Devils. They had 2 days off before yesterday's game. They are 54-28 (+10.9) in divisional games the last few seasons and they are 6-1 their last 7 home games against the Devils. Let's go Hurricanes!

We won with the Devils last night. It was a favorable matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets. At the time, I mentioned that Columbus was only 2-10 after scoring 4 or more goals though, 20-52 (-24.4) in that situation the last few seasons. This is a far more difficult matchup.

I didn't mind backing the Devils on the road last night because they are actually much better away from NJ. I mentioned that they'd been -240 when they hosted Columbus but that the price was much lower due to the game being on the road. This time, it works the other way. We're able to get Dallas, a better team which is rested, at a bargain price compared to what the price would be, if the Stars were hosting. For the record, the Devils are 14-7-1 on the road but 9-10-2 at home.

The Devils are 0-5 the last 5 times that they played 2 games in two nights. You'd be 5-0 if playing against them each time they were in that situation since the start of December. They gave up 6, 5, 5, 4 and 6 goals in those game.

Road team won both games last season. Rested and off a loss, the Stars will bounce back and take this one.

Two really bad teams. Do they even want to win? If so, who wants it more? In my estimation, its better not to lose sleep over the side and instead to focus on the total.

These teams are bad in no small part to their defense. The Sharks give up 4.05 goals per game. That's the most in entire NHL and the number climbs to 4.3 goals allowed per road game. The Blackhawks aren't far behind. They allow 3.65 goals per game, 4th worst in the NHL.

The last 3 meetings all finished with 7 goals. This one finishes with 6 or more, the over moving to 7-3 the past 10 times that Chicago played with 2 day's rest in between games.

This is a big total. Too big. Neither team was pleased with its number of goals allowed last game. Both will be looking to clean that up. Buffalo has already gone under 12 of 19 times, after giving up 4 or more goals. The Senators are 12-8 to the under after allowing 4 or more goals. For the past few seasons, Ottawa is 51-36 to the under after allowing 4 or more goals.

The Sabres are also 12-7 to the under when playing a home game with a total of 6 or more. The Sabres score less at home (2.8 gpg) than on the road. The under is 12-7 in their home games. Lastly, the under is 7-1-1 the past 3 seasons when these divisional foes have faced each other. Go with the Under! ***Atlantic Div TOY***

The Golden Knights won the first meeting 7-0. The Avalanche are 10-3 to the under in 13 tries when playing with revenge. Over the past few seasons, Colorado is 44-26-1 to the under, when in a revenge situation.

The Golden Knights haven't played in some time. They are 2-1 to the under when having had 3 or more day's off. They are also 12-5-1 to the under against winning teams.

Before the 7-0 game, the previous six meetings between these teams had all finished with 5 goals or less. The under was 6-0. This game will be low-scoring! ***NHL TOW***

You guys know I like the Boston Bruins. I backed them in their last game. This is a team that they could face in the Stanley Cup Finals though and there are a few important factors that favor Colorado.

The Avalanche are much better at home than Boston is on the road. Colorado is 16-5 at home. Boston is 12-8 on the road.

The Avalanche lost their last game 8-4 and they are 30-12 (+12.1) their last 42 tries, when off a loss by 2 or more goals.

Over the same time-frame, the Avalanche are 51-30 in non-conf. games and 49-27 after allowing 4 or more goals. Embarrassed from giving up 8 goals and from being swept by the Bruins last year, they will deliver an appropriate response! ***NON-CONF GOW****

These are 2 good teams but the Bruins have a few important things working for them. They play at home. Not only are the Bruins extremely tough in their own building but the Lightning are poor on the road.

The Bruins are healthier. Tampa's injury list is rather lengthy. The Bruins are off a loss in their last game and they also lost in OT, at Tampa earlier. Both those events will assure their very best performance today. Go with BOSTON! ***ATLANTIC DIV GOM***

Capitals are underdogs on the money-line which allows the opportunity to play them at +1.5 goals on the puck-line. We saw how valuable those extra +1.5 goals can be yesterday, as I cashed in with the Islanders in a game where they lost 5-4.

Washington won last night and got some of its mojo back. The Devils are partly such big favorites because of the Capitals playing for a second straight day. They've won 6 of 7 games in that situation this season and the only loss came by a 1 goal. Four of their last 5 tries, including each of the past 3, when playing 2 games in 2 days, resulted in 1-goal games.

The Capitals have dominated division rivals this season, including 2 wins at New Jersey.

None of the Devils last 9 visits here have resulted in a NJ win by more than a goal. 7 of the past 8 meetings here have been 1 goal games including each of the last 4. Play Washington on puck-line! ***METRO DIV GOM***

The first outdoor game ever played in Seattle will be a good one. They're expecting a great turnout to see the Kraken host the defending Stanley Cup champions. I won't worry about who wins but I really like the total. Even if the ice conditions aren't an issue, this has all the makings of a defensive game.

This will be the 4th meeting since the start of 2023. Two in April and one in October. Scores of those games were 4-1, 3-1 and 3-1.

Vegas has scored 3 goals or less in three straight games. Seven goals over the 3-game span. Seattle has scored 3 or fewer goals in 6 straight games. During those 6 games, the Kraken scored just 14 goals. Their last 4 games had scores of 2-1, 2-1, 3-1 and 3-2. Go with the Under. **NHL TOM**

Buffalo fought hard to win yesterday. Ottawa had the day off. Buffalo is 13-24 last 37 tries in a back-to-back. The Senators have won 2 of their last 3. After this comes a long road trip. They need a win before they go. They play with revenge from an early season loss to the Sabres. Ottawa had a 38-24 edge in shots in that game. Senators win this one! ***Atlantic Div GOW***

The Kings are going to want this game more than the Oilers. They just lost to Vegas, the defending champs, and will be looking to restore order to close out the year. They also face the Oilers for the first time since Edmonton eliminated them (for the 2nd straight year) in the playoffs.

Though the Oilers have been hot, they are still only 16-15-1. The Kings are 20-8-4. We're getting the team with the best winning percentage in the West, coming in with a score to settle, against a team barely only .500. And we don't even have to lay a big price.

I like the Oilers but they won't be ready for what they encounter tonight. LA is the best defensive team in hockey. The Kings allow only 2.34 goals per game. Edmonton allows 3.31. per game. This is an LA team committed to defense. Coach Todd McLellan said this after the 3-2 Vegas loss: "For me, the disappointment wasn't not getting three goals, it was giving up three." Kings win. ***Western Conf. GOM***

Previous meetings this season have had totals of 6 instead of 5.5. The lower number offers us excellent line value.

New York's last game had 7 goals. The previous game had 9. Three of the Capitals last 4 road games versus the Islanders have finished with at least 6 goals.

Washington allowed 5 goals last game. The Capitals have struggled to score in recent games and will be pleased to know that the Islanders are missing a few defensemen.

The Islanders are 20-14-1 to the over this season. Go with the over. ***TOTAL OF WEEK***

I like the Oilers. They've got some great talent and they're fun to watch. Last night's 3rd period outburst was impressive. The Oilers are in a difficult spot tonight though. They're in busy New York City playing their final game before Christmas. They beat New Jersey last night. The Rangers had the day off. The Rangers have the best record in the Eastern Conference. They have been far more consistent than Edmonton and they already beat the Oilers 3-0. The Rangers are 3-0 their past 3 games, outscoring teams 12-4. They won 5-1 the last time that they were on home ice. The Oilers have been fortunate to avoid back-to-back situations and aren't used to playing in them. They will feel it in their legs tonight. ***DECEMBER GAME OF MONTH***

The Capitals have been playing great defense. They won 2-1 at Carolina last game. That was the 3rd time in 5 games that they allowed 2 goals or less. The Washington penalty kill is 19 of 20 in those 5 games. There was some talk of fatigue but the Capitals battled through it. They'll be fresh tonight after having the past 2 days off. That is not the case for their guests. The Islanders are off an upset win of the Oilers last night, getting outshot 31-21. The Islanders are winless this season, when playing 2 games in 2 nights. They've got a few defensive injuries and those will be noticed in the back-to-back spot. With Sorokin playing last night, Varlamov is likely to be in goal. He struggled against Montreal last game and the Capitals beat him last time they saw him. Washington wins! ***METRO DIV. GOY***

The Golden Knights are the defending champions. The Golden Knights have the top record. So, why are Hurricanes favored? Because this is an exceptional team which is 53-23 its last 76 home games with a total of 6 or more, 47-29 its last 76 against Western Conference opposition. The Hurricanes are the healthier team. They are playing at home and they are hell-bent on snapping their losing streak and beating the champs. They'll do it! ***NHL GOW***

Both the Senators and the Knights will look to improve their number of goals allowed today. The last time that the Senators were off 3 straight losses, they responded with a 2-0 win. The last time that the Knights allowed 5 or more goals, they responded with a 4-1 win. The Knights allow only 2.48 goals per game, 3rd best in the NHL. They kill 87.3% of their penalties. Only Boston is better. Ottawa's last 3 visits to Sin City have finished with scores of 3-2, 2-1 and 4-1. All 3 of those games went under the total and this one will too. ***NHL TOW***

This is the lowest total of any of Thursday's hockey games. The rest have totals of 6 or more. Turning a 6 into a win instead of a push or loss is a big deal. Washington's last game finished with 6 goals. Two of the Capitals last 4 games have landed on that number. Three of their last 4 have finished with more than 5.5 goals. The last 10 meetings between these teams have also all had total lines of 6 or more. Capital road games average 5.9 goals on the season. Same goes for Flyer home games. Washington's last visit to the Philadelphia resulted in a 5-3 final, Travis Konecny recording a hat trick for the home team. This one will also finish over the total! ***Metro Div TOM***

Seattle has a scoring problem. The problem is that the Kraken can't score. They average only 2.52 goals a game. That's 4th worst in the NHL. Last game, they scored 0. They have scored 3 or less every time, in losing each of their 8 games. Over their last 5 games, they've scored only 6 combined goals. The Panthers are difficult to score against. They only permit 2.4 goals per road game. 8 of 14 road games have gone under. This season's earlier game finished at 3-2. Florida's visit here last December finished at 5-1. They won't even get that many tonight. ***NHL TOM***

Leafs are a bargain at this price. Toronto comes off a shutout win. Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe said: "In the second period, especially, our game started to really come and I thought we really took care of the puck and made sure we just were wearing them down and not really let their game get started offensively. I just loved our second period and that set us up for the third, which the guys took care of well." The Maple Leafs outshot the Predators 37-18 and 18-5 in the 3rd period. It was the first time in almost 10 years that they shutout an opponent on 18 or fewer shots. Toronto wins again! ***NHL GOW***

You've heard me say it before. Anytime that the Maple Leafs are priced this low, I'm going to take a closer look. In this case, a closer look reveals that this is a strong spot. The Leafs are rested and playing with revenge from an earlier loss. Toronto was last in action on December 2nd, losing to Boston. The Leafs are 10-4 their past 14 tries with 3 or more day's rest. Over the same period, the Leafs are 50-29 after allowing 4 or more goals. Ottawa is 30-40 after scoring 4 or more and only 29-54 against winning teams. Throw in a 22-10 record for Toronto when playing with revenge from a home loss and you see why this play is so strong. ***Atlantic Division GOM***

The Penguins beat the Lightning 4-2 last week. At the time, Tampa was mired in a losing streak. Since, the Penguins have dropped both ends of a home and home with the Flyers. They are 27-36 (-23.7) last 2 seasons, when off a division game. The Lightning snapped their losing streak last game with an important 4-0 revenge win over Dallas. Now 19-7 (+9.5) their last 26 December games, they will get another revenge win over the Penguins. ***Eastern Conf. GOM***

The Kings have been remarkable on the road but they won't be excited about a visit to Ohio. The Kings have played in Columbus 4 times the last 4 seasons. The Blue Jackets won the first by a 4-1 score. The last 3 games here all were tied after regulation. The Jackets ended up winning 2 of those. The last time that the Kings won a game here by more than 1 goal was back in 2017. The Blue Jackets have scored 18 goals in winning 3 of their last 4 at home. Columbus' Boone Jenner, who leads the team in goals said: "I think we've got to use the momentum when we have it." The Jackets will carry their home ice momentum into this one and have a strong chance of handing the Kings their first road loss. ***Non-Conf. GOW***

Allowing only 2.35 goals per game, 2nd fewest in the NHL, Los Angeles has been an under team. The Kings last two game had scores of 4-0 and 2-1. They are 8-1-1 to the under their last 10 games. Colorado played last night. The game started high-scoring but had no goals from mid-way through the second period right up until the shootout. Last time that the Avalanche played for the 2nd time in 2 days, the final score was 3-1. This game goes under! ***WESTERN CONF TOY***

The Canadiens won 3-2 when they hosted the Red Wings on November the 9th. The Red Wings are a much stronger team and they are playing much better at the moment. They will have a chip on their shoulders for this Original 6 rematch. Since the Nov. 9 meeting, Montreal has really struggled. Detroit has been mostly winning. The Canadiens injury list is lengthy. They are 26-62 their last 88 tried against winning teams. The Red Wings will improve to 9-5 their last 14 in the revenge role! ***Revenge GOM***

Ottawa scored 0 last game and has managed 5 goals total its last 3 games. Averaging 2.88 goals, Columbus is one of the lower-scoring teams in the league. The Jackets scored 2 last game which marked the third time in 4 games that they scored less than 3 goals. None of the last 9 meetings have exceeded 7 goals. Six games since 2022 have averaged less than 5 goals each. Under is 5-1 in Blue Jackets last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Jackets are also 4-1 to the under last 5 tries when playing with 1 day's rest in between games. This game goes Under! ***EASTERN CONF TOM***

The Panthers are off consecutive losses for the second time this season. After losing 2 in a row to start the season, they responded by winning a road game at New Jersey. They have enjoyed success in Canada's capital in the past. The Panthers are 5-1 the last 6 meetings with the Senators. The Panthers are also 5-1 the last 6 meetings played in Ottawa. The Panthers haven't played since Friday and they are 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. Florida takes this one! **Atlantic Div GOW**

The Jets beat the Panthers in Winnipeg. The Panthers will beat them in Florida. The favorite is 47-23 in the last 70 meetings in the series. The Panthers are getting very strong goaltending and they got their two injured defensemen back. They've won 4 of their last 5 non-conference games and they will win again today. ***NHL Non-Conference GOW***

A lot of things would need to fall into place but it's not inconceivable that these teams could face each other in the Stanley Cup Finals. I'll just focus on tonight. Here's the setup. The Rangers are on a winning streak. The Stars just blew a 3-0 lead in their last game which snapped their winning streak. That result will give Dallas some extra hunger. Before the Colorado loss, the Stars had allowed 3 or fewer goals in 9 straight. They still average 4.6 goals over their last 5 games. They are 43-22 (+15) last 65 after allowed 4 goals or more, 2-0 this season. Sorry Ranger fans, Dallas takes this one! ***Non-Conf GOW***

Colorado is still a really good team but the Stars are simply better right now. They are playing at a different level and with more consistency. They have outscored last 4 opponents by a 20-10 score. They've got more depth and they are playing at home. The Stars have one of the best goalies in the world, the Avalanche have some concerns in net. The Stars are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. They will keep their winning streak going! ***Central Div. GOM***

Off a pair of losses, the Lightning will be at their most dangerous tonight. Tampa is 18-9 (+5.6) last 27 after scoring 1 goal or less. Over that period, Lightning are 48-27 (+10) against Western Conf. opponents. Blues are 31-35 (-10.3) against Eastern Conf. teams. Lighthing swept the Blues last year and they were -200 favorites for the game here. The favorite will move to 5-0 the past 5 meetings after this one! ***Non-Conf GOM***

Last month's game between these teams was high-scoring but Columbus divsion games are only averaging 4.7 goals. The Blue Jackets won that firs game. The Rangers have gone under 4 of the past 5 times that they played with revenge. Under has hit 4 of past 5 meetings in New York. Rangers are also 47-29 to the under their last 66 tries, off a 2 or more goal victory. Also, Under is 6-1 in Rangers last 7 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. This one goes Under! ***Metro Division Total Of The Year

I've stated previously that when you can get the Leafs at home at this price, you do it. That goes even more so when facing an inconsistent opponent like Calgary. The Flames won a couple lately but they're going to be in trouble this season. The Leafs are 49-28 after allowing 4 or more goals. They are also 30-14 last 44 times that they were off a loss of 2 more goals. Calgary gets outscored 4.0 to 2.7 on the road. Leafs own the Flames and swept them last year. They will win again. ***Non-Conf. GOW

Tampa is a good team but Toronto will not be denied tonight. Actually, a visit from Tampa is going to be just what the struggling Maple Leafs need. This is a rematch from the first round of last year's playoffs. The Leafs eliminated the Lightning and ended a 19-year playoff drought by winning the series. The Lightning are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. Atlantic Division teams. They are also 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in its previous game. The Leafs have beaten this team 5 of the past 6 meetings and they will agains tonight. *** Atlantic Div. GOM

Have a look at this group of 6 scores and see if you notice a pattern. 3-0, 3-2, 3-2, 3-2, 2-0, 3-1. Did you see it? Of course you did. All six games were low-scoring. All finished with 5 goals or less. Those were the scores from the last 6 meetings between the Avalanche and the Knights. No Western Conference team has allowed less goals than Colorado. Vegas would be right there but has played two more games. These teams are hard to score agaisnt. The Under is 6-0-1 in Colorado's last 7 games when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is also 6-1 in Colorado's last 7 vs. Pacific Division teams. This game stays under! ***total of the month

Both teams have 6 points. The Panthers have achieved that in 6 games. The Kraken needed eight to do so. Seattle was hot on the road for most of last year but that's already changed this season. They're 1-7 their last 8 on the road. Kraken are also 1-5 their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The Panthers are stronger at home and they have a road trip following this game. It starts with a difficult stop in Boston. So, you know they need to win this one. Florida is 13-3 the last 16 when its opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Make that 14-3 after Saturday. *Non-Conf GOM

An extra +1.5 goals is the way to go on Friday night in New Jersey. The Sabres are 3-3 last 6 with 2 of the losses coming by 1 goal. The Devils have played five 1-goal games in their last 7. Five of 10 meetings in the series were 1-goal games. Sabres off a 6-4 win. The Devils off a 6-4 loss and the Sabres are 5-0 against the money-line in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Go with Buffalo on the puck-line. *GOW

Though they're not thrilled with their start, the Devils are a little stronger than the Islanders. The Devils had a big regular season last year and are poised for another big year. Determined to get a victory, they'll face an Islander team which is 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. The Islanders are sound defensively and in goal but they often have trouble scoring and will have trouble keeping up. The Devils superior power-play will likely make a difference. NJ is a slight favorite and the favorite is 25-12 the past 37 meetings. NJ wins. *Metro Div GOW

The Senators lost their first game, at Carolina. Since then, they've been playing very well. They're off back-to-back 5-2 victories. They had a solid edge in shots and overall play in both games. The Capitals are fortunate to be 1-1. They've been outshot badly in both of their games. Struggling to score goals and generate offense, the Capitals will have trouble keeping up to a Senators team which is clicking. Washington is 0-6 the past six times that it faced an opponent which scored five or more goals in its last game. The favorite is 38-13 the past 51 meetings. Go with the Senators. *Eastern Conference Game Of The Month

Ignore the 0-2 record, the Oilers are still stacked. Understand that they had a 40-16 edge in shots in Saturday's loss. Just like 0-2 Florida yesterday, the Oilers will be extremely determined to get their first victory. Captain Connor McDavid commented: "You want to get off to a good start and we haven’t. A win tomorrow night leaves us at [1-2-0] and we were [1-2-0] last year too. It’s not the best start, not what we were looking for, but I thought Saturday was something to build off and we look to continue that tomorrow night.” Edmonton is 4-1 the past 5 times it played with 2 days off in between games. The Oilers are also 8-1 the last 9 times that played the Predators. Look for the favorite to improve to 18-7 the past 25 meetings in the series. *Oct. GOM

A very big O/U line. These teams faced each other already. Playing in their own building, the Canucks crushed the Oilers by an 8-1 score. Both Edmonton goalies struggled. We'll see a better defensive and goaltending effort from the Oilers on Saturday. Only one of Vancouver's past five visits here has produced more than 7 goals. Three of those five games finished with less than six. The under is 3-1-1 in those games and 6-2-1 in nine meetings overall. Also, the under is 5-1 the past six times that Edmonton allowed five or more goals in its previous game. Go with the Under! *NHL TOM

Classic rivalry. The Capitals have home ice advantage. The Penguins have already played a game though. They've had a chance to work out some issues. It will help them in this game. There were some positive signs. The Penguins had 40 shots and won most of the face-offs. They allowed 4 unanswered goals to blow the game though. That won't sit well and they're going to come out determined to make things right. The Capitals are missing a couple of players. The Penguins are quite healthy. They will spoil Washington's home opener. *Metro Conf GOM

Both teams are stacked on offense. Neither will have trouble scoring this year. Entering the season, I like Minnesota's defense a lot more. The Panthers are missing two of their top defensemen, Montour and Ekblad. Both had off-season shoulder surgery. They'll be missed tonight. The Wild are 40-23 (+10.6) against Eastern Conference teams the past two years. Florida is just 35-34 (-19) against teams from the West. The Panthers won last year's two games but the Wild will take this one. *NHL GOW

Vegas are heavy favorites and deservedly so.  Unless some unlikely magic happens this should be the end of the road for the scrappy Panthers.  Bobrovsky has been shown to be mortal in this series with a 3.47 GA avg. and dismal .850 save %, while Hill has continued his run with a 2.25 GA avg and .920 save %.   Hill has only allowed 2 goals/game in regulation in the entire finals. 

On the offensive side, Vegas has outscored Florida 12-4 at home when they have the last change and can dictate matchups against the Panthers’ inferior depth.  This has been further enabled by Vegas’ 100% PK  rate and their 33% PP rate in their last 5 playoff games.

Vegas’ physical superiority has also been demonstrated as Panther players are struggling on the injury front as Duclair,  Luostarinen and most notably Tkachuk are all struggling and questionable for game 5.  And we can’t forget that Gudas is also in rough shape and was not very noticeable in game 4,

Vegas is 7-0 in their last 7 at home against the Panthers.  They also know how to close out a series as evidenced by their decisive 6-0 win to finish off Dallas, the 5-2 closeout against the Oilers and the 4-1 series ending win over Winnipeg.  Notice the theme here. The Panthers will be even more dispirited than those three teams. The Knights should win this one by 2 or more goals which offers a healthy payout. 

As expected, we saw a much tighter-checking game three, with significantly fewer shots on both sides.  Play-off Bob looked sharp but the Panthers did a much better job in allowing him to see the puck.  While the Panthers didn't shut down Vegas's big three in Marchessault, Eichel and Stone, they did at least limit their opportunities to 8 shots on net in total.  The Knights are a very well coached team, exceptional at adjusting from game to game, and at limiting scoring on the road.  They limited Dallas at home to just 3 goals in 3 games.  I expect game four could again be low scoring, especially if Bobrovsky continues to rebound.  Hill wasn't quite as sharp in game three.  Look for the Knights' oversized defenders to come to his aid this time out.  Take Saturday's game to again go under.

Bobrovsky is going to start.  I agree he deserves at least this but it sure looks like Vegas has figured him out;  screen him and shoot high to the opposite side as he tries to peek around the screen.  Remember, in their last 12 games Vegas has seen the opposing goalie pulled 5 times.  At the other end of the rink, Aidan Hill looks fresh, unflappable and dialed in.  The Panthers can’t screen him to the same extent with all those huge defenders on the Knights’ blueline (6’6’, 6’4”, 6’3”, 6’2” x2, and tiny 6’1’ 209 lb Martinez) boxing them out.

In their last 10 games Vegas has averaged 4.2 goals for and 2.1 goals against while the Panthers are at 2.4 and 2.6 respectively. 

On the injury front Gudas is probable but really?  He was already hurt and that hit staggered him.  His replacement, Fitzgerald exposed the lack of depth on the Panthers’ blueline.  Karlsson is probable with an illness for the Golden Knights. 

The discipline issue is real for the Panthers.  They have had to kill 32 penalties these playoffs compared to 23 for the Golden Knights.  Vegas’ powerplay has come alive at an inopportune time for the Panthers.

The key stat for Vegas though is their ability to play lockdown hockey on the road even when the other team has last change.  The are 32-8 on the road while the Panthers are an OK but less remarkable 27-16 at home.  Vegas has lost only two on the road these playoffs.  Following a win this season Vegas is 26-9 on the road.

It all adds up to taking Vegas on the Money Line.

After a blow-out loss, the Panthers slink back to Florida for game three.  Location was highly significant for the Panthers in the regular season:  they were a .500 club on the road, and much better at home.  The Knights were actually a better on the road than at home this year.  They played a very different style, tight-checking and composed, and the totals reflected this.  The Panthers are now at critical mass and absolutely must play with more discipline and composure, limiting penalties.  They have had a couple of days of soul-searching.  Vegas, with solid defense and goal-tending from Hill, has been able to limit the Panthers' quality scoring chances.  I believe this will continue on Thursday.  I also believe that the Panthers will rebound and find their composure.  They'll have the final change, so with the right personnel on the ice, perhaps they can cool off the Eichel, Marchessault, Barbashev line.  Look for the return of the Florida forecheck, and a better game from Bobrovsky.  The Total has climbed to six.  Take the Under on Thursday. 10* Playoff TOY

Stats and records from previous rounds and the regular season don’t matter so much now.  They both played in a separate conference for the playoffs and the regular season.  Except for their split in regular season games this past season,  we have little to no experience of these teams together.  Game 1 gave us more of what we have seen in one sense as their last 11 games against each other over the past 4 seasons had the home team with a 10-1 record.  That includes the Panthers with a 0-6 record over their last 6 in Vegas, which gives us one data point.

Panthers’ powerplay was at 0% Saturday night, while Vegas was at 28%.  Given the Panthers’ interest in mixing it up Saturday, this gives us another data point in favor of the Knights.  Over the last 10 games the Panthers’ have averaged only 2.6 goals/game, even as they were successful.  The Knights have averaged 3.6 goals/game.  Another check mark for the Knights.  Over their last 8 games head to head the favorite is 7-1.  Monday night Vegas is the favorite.  All the above relevant data points, point to Vegas.  Take the Knights on the Money Line.

The total in Game One went as expected, with Bobrovsky allowing four goals against for just the first time in eleven games.  I doubt that his extended rest will prove beneficial in this series.  Let's not forget that in spite of his recent play, Bobrovsky had a pair of five goals-against games early in the Boston series.  Adin Hill continued to impress with a .943 save % on 35 shots.  On offense, Eichel had a pair of assists in Game one.  Stone was held scoreless but had seven shots on net.  Tkachuk took himself out of the game for the final five minutes, and was also held pointless.  I am still convinced that offenses, especially Vegas' will rule the day in this series.  That same 5 1/2 total is readily available.  We have a small sample size, but recent games with the Knights as the home side have all gone over.  Take the Over again in Game two.

It’s been quite a ride through the playoffs for us and the teams.  Now is when the Panthers take the truth serum of the Knights.  Are they for real?  Is Bobrovsky for real?  Can Tkachuk keep doing what he’s been doing?  Can the Panther’s patchwork defense keep it together?  Is Paul Maurice a genius?

Looking at Bobrovsky’s save % we think it’s otherworldly.  Hill’s is comparable and in the regular season it is superior to Bobrovsky’s.  Carolina’s approach is volume of shots from wherever (shot heat maps show the vast majority from the outside), so they made it easy for Bobrovsky to look impressive.  Vegas gets to the dirty areas and they will expose Bobrovsky like Carolina never did.

Tkachuk’s playoff history was mediocre before this year.  What’s different about this year?  He’s playing against the Eastern Conference, not the Western Conference.  He has had his way with Carolina, Toronto and surprisingly, Boston with little or no pushback.   Vegas is a different story and he will get push back.

The depth Vegas has upfront will expose the Panthers’ defence and show us that Forsling and Gudas aren’t what we might have thought they were and Marc Staal is not a top four defenceman.  Vegas’ third line with Karlsson, Smith and Marchesault will feast on Staal and the Panthers’ third pairing when they get a chance.  Vegas’ fourth line will punish the Panthers’ in their own end. 

With respect to Paul Maurice we’ll find out when his team comes up against a powerful Vegas team that has quietly worked through the Western Conference under the skilled guidance of Bruce Cassidy who’s former team, the Bruins, sputtered in the playoffs without him.  Take Vegas on the Money Line.

We have seen a stack of unders with the Panthers in the postseason, not in small part due to Bobrovsky's remarkable play.  It is now ten days since he played, so at what point does rest become rust?  He gave up three goals in his last start; I'm wagering that he will do at least the same tonight.  The Panthers are 0-5 in Vegas and those games have gone over to the tune of 4-1.  The Knights rolled out six goals against a very good defensive team in their last game.  The return of Mark Stone and Eichel's first foray into the playoffs have made the Golden Knights an offensive force to be reckoned with.  The Golden Knights have had five days rest and are mostly healthy, a rarity in the past two years. Let's not forget that the Panthers were a top six team in offense this season. Look for goal tending on a less heroic scale and a higher final score.  Take Vegas and the Panthers to go over the total.

It has not been common for the Knights, a superb road team, to give up four goals in a non-overtime away game.  The Stars carried it to the Golden Knights, looking faster and sharper, while hemming Vegas in with an blanketing forecheck.  While Hill was impressive at times, he definitely appeared more vulnerable in Game Five, with his save % dropping to below .900 for the first time in seven games.  In the other net, Oettinger appears to have bounced back from his three game slide and has looked more like his dominant self in the last two games.  Robertson has stepped up his game with more chances and better success, scoring three times in the last two games.  Eichel has bee held scoreless in three straight games now. 

With Benn back, Oettinger playing better and the Stars finally with some momentum,  I like Dallas' chances to tie the series up tonight.  Take the Stars, a very good home team to win.

The Stars and Oettinger bounced back with an overtime win in Game four.  I really thought that the young Stars goalie was down for the count, but he survived nearly 40 shots with by far his best game of the series.  Hill was again steady in net for Vegas as he has been all series long.  Dallas will be again in must win mode but at least they have now had a taste of success, however the Knights have been very good at making the necessary adjustments after a loss.  With 2/3s of the Stars second line out and with the final change tonight, Vegas can key on the Stars top line which accounted for all of the Dallas scoring in Game four.  This series was always expected to be a low scoring one, and in spite of some subpar goal tending by Oettinger, the last three games have gone under.  Look for another tight checking, low scoring affair tonight, and take the total to go under.

The Stars won't be out tonight down in Dallas.  Missing Benn and with Oettinger essentially a broken man, this is definitely the Golden Knights' game and series for the taking.  Vegas was, as usual, poised and tough on defense in a road game last time out, and I expect nothing different today.  They really have been an elite away team this season.  Add the continued success of Adin Hill, now with a shutout to add to some very stellar play in the post season.  Eichel and the returning Stone are top ten in playoff scoring but the Knights are getting goals from a variety of players.  Without Oettinger holding up in net, Dallas's blueline has been exposed. Take Vegas to finish off a rattled Stars side tonight.

The top and second top forechecking teams in the NHL (by advanced metrics) are masterful at getting in on the puck.  But it turns out they are also great at limiting in zone high danger chances.  Their skill at forechecking includes an ability to clog up the neutral zone and stifle rush chances.  Both teams still manage to keep things exciting with checkers and puck carriers selling out and sacrificing themselves all over the ice. 

When you combine this with unbelievable goaltending it is a sure recipe for low scoring affairs.  The losing goaltender in this series, Andersen has save percentages of .941 and .950.  That is phenomenal.  But Bobrovsky has been otherworldly with 1.0, .974 and.969 save percentages.  It’s no surprise that the Canes under record is 4-0 in their last 4 and the Panthers is 8-0 in their last 8.  Both teams have averaged totals of 5.4 (Carolina) and 5.2(Florida) GF +GA in their last 10 games.

When you have no high scoring stars on either side it’s no wonder that the under is a must call on this one.  Take the under and enjoy this hard fought hockey to the max.

The Stars have not been getting the goal-tending required for  playoff success in Round three.  In spite of Oettinger's track record, and the Knights being limited to just 24 shots in Game two, Dallas came up in the wrong side of overtime again.  Golden Knights' net minder Adin Hill has looked very sharp in his last four starts.  This is obviously  a must-win situation for the Stars.  Vegas has been a tighter close checking team when playing on the road all season.  I think Dallas will respond with even more defensive pressure, while an obviously weary Oettinger will look to rebound from some poor outings.  Game three will be another close one, with an equally low total.  Take the Under on Tuesday

Bobrovsky's three latest appearances, all going into overtime, could become legendary; facing 155 shots, he has turned in a .968 Save %.  I doubted him after that marathon Game one, but I won't this time.  Now throw in Tkachuk, a difference maker in all three series, whose impact on the Panthers' offense has been equally remarkable in the playoffs.  Add Barkov for star power, and the confidence the Panthers are playing with having knocked off two favored opponents, and you have a very tough row to hoe for Hurricanes.  Carolina's lack of offense was a given in this series, but the Canes have met an equally tough fore-checking opponent in the Panthers.  I like the Panthers, with the final change on home ice, to advance to 3-0 today.

There are no Bobrovskys in this series.  Oettinger was expected to excel but for what ever reason (fatigue?) he has been little better than average in the playoffs.  Adin Hill was the better goalie in game one.  We have seen a surprising number of high totals from these two teams in the playoffs; 7-1 in the Stars' case, and three straight from Vegas.  The odds-makers keep setting the number at 5.5 but without superlative goal-tending, that number seems low.  It has been a rare game in the playoffs that the Knights haven't scored 4 or more goals.  The Stars have also averaged roughly four goals a game over their last 1o games.  I am jumping on that low number in Game two.  Take Vegas and the Stars to go over the total.

There has to be a regression to the mean in Bobrovsky’s goaltending.  His .943 save% in his last 6 games is off the charts and way above his seasonal and career numbers.  After an almost 7 period game, this is the time for it to come back down to earth.  The Canes are 3rd in average shots per game while the Panthers are 22nd in average shots against.  Bobrovsky is due for a melt down.  The Panthers’ PK is at 61%.  The Canes PP hasn’t been great but this will be Teravinen’s second game back so he should help their PP and offense in general more than last game.  
Florida has been involved in a lot of under totals lately but two stats point to the Canes being able to make adjustments to juice up their attack.  They are 7-1 over/under on one day’s rest and have a 21-7 win loss record when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in the previous game.  It all points to an over total for game 2. Tired teams usually score more rather than less goals.  Take Game two to go over the total.

Both the Stars and the Knights mostly defended well against two offensive juggernauts in round 2.  Probable starting goaltenders Oettinger (2.44 GA avg. .916 save %) and Hill (.245 GA avg. .917 save %) have comparable records.  Oettinger has a 7-2-1 record in his last 10 while Hill is 7-3.  So there isn’t much to choose between them beyond Oettinger’s success in last year’s playoffs against Calgary.
The Stars are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with the Knights.  The Stars have a better record on the road than the Knights have at home.  When you list all the matchup factors Dallas has the edge in offense, defense, PP, PK, faceoffs and discipline.  The only edge for Vegas is in goal during these playoffs but Oettinger last year in the playoffs and all season was far superior to Hill so it is difficult to imagine Hill continuing to carry the day.  Hill is seen as large and slow and clearly Coach DeBoer and the Dallas veteran attackers will figure out how to take advantage of this.  Pick Dallas as the dog and carry the day.
 

This is a very tough call. Limited due to injury, the Canes offense was questioned coming into the playoffs and the Panthers were largely written off with a 21st rated defense.  True to form, the Hurricanes stymied the opposition, allowing the least goals of any remaining team.  They were equally tough on the PK, and in spite of a "scoring by committee" approach, have scored as many goals as the Panthers while playing one less game.  Both teams got stellar goal-tending in the last series.  Bobrovsky re-found his form and was phenomenal in the Leaf series. Andersen, even allowing for one very bad game, still finished the last series with a .931 save %. The Panthers do have an edge on the power play but the Canes  have really limited PP opportunities with the least number of penalty minutes.  Carolina was one of the very best home teams this year while the Panthers were much less effective on the road.  Both teams are well-rested. Carolina of all teams should be able to limit the "Tkachuk effect".  Home ice and better defense tips the scales for me in what could be a very close Game one.  Take the Hurricanes, the favorite today, to win.

The Kraken have been a much tougher nut to crack in the playoffs than anyone expected.  The Stars came in as favored, but the series has see-sawed wildly in wins.  The only consistent factor is the over, and I expect another one today. Goal tending and the Kraken offense have been the keys in  Series two.  The Settle goal tending was always suspect, and Grubauer, after a terrific first series, has reverted to an .865 save %  against the Stars.  Oettinger who was expected to excel in the postseason, has been pulled twice and has exactly the same .865 save % as Grubauer.  The high totals are perhaps not so surprising as these were the 5th and 7th ranked offenses, however the Stars' inability to control Seattle with one of the league's elite defenses is an eye-opener.  I am not going to second guess this one.  Take game seven to again go over.

My run on totals is up to 13-3.  This is your chance to jump on board.  Skinner, tonight’s likely Oilers goalie, has alternated good with abysmal starts.  This is his turn for a good one. He has had save %s of .962 and .968 for his great starts.  We won’t talk about his bad starts.  Nurse will return from his suspension which should solidify the Oilers' back end. 

 Aidan Hill has had a .926 save % in his last 10 starts.  Pietrangelo and Kolesar have got their owlies out, so that should limit the power play chances for the Oilers.  The Knights have managed to limit the damage from Edmonton’s top scoring duo in most recent action. That combined with the fact that Vegas plays a different kind of lockdown game on the road should combine with all of the above to create a low event game for game 6. 

Three of the last 4 games of this series have been under.  In the last 8 meetings between these clubs, the under is 6-1-1.  Join me for another fine total selection. We should see a tense, much tighter,  more defensive tonight, especially from the last chance Oilers.The Under is the call for tonight’s game.

My run on totals in the NHL playoffs is up to 12-3.  I couldn’t believe my good fortune when I saw an over of 5.5 (-120) for Saturday.  I couldn’t write this pick quickly enough.  Dallas, in their last 10 games has averaged a total of 7 goals a game.  Seattle isn’t far behind at 6.8.  As a favorite Dallas’ games have averaged a total of 6.4 goals per game.  As a dog Seattle’s totals have averaged 6.5 per game. Overs are 4-0 for the L4 games in Seattle and 8-0 for the L8 meetings between these two clubs.  And then the clincher for me, Dallas is 5-0-1 on overs for their L6 and Seattle is 5-0 in their last 5. 

Although both clubs were just below .500 for overs against all opponents during the regular season, the playoffs seem to be a different story.  The intensity, physicality and pressure all seem to conspire to create high event hockey.  Jump on the over.

There will be no love lost between these two teams in Game five.  Pietrangelo's bizarre attack may galvanize the Oilers, who really stepped it up with their speed and size on Wednesday, limiting Vegas' puck-moving ability. The Knights will miss him more than the Oilers will miss Nurse today. Oilers' net minder Skinner bounced back with a fine start in Game four, but he has had trouble stringing two solid efforts together.  Vegas' goalie will likely be a game time decision, but none have thrived in this series.  The Oilers were much better on the road this season, and have had very good success in Vegas.  If anyone benefits from a choppy game with extra penalties it will be them.  Edmonton took charge in the Kings series in Game 5 and I believe they will do the same today. Look for the Oilers to string a pair of wins together and take today's matchup on the road.

I am again confident on this one despite going 1-1 last night.  This is my first under in awhile but the sports books have been taking a beating and they offered up a generous one to try and turn the tide. 

That combined with the new approach Toronto is taking to protect their young goaltender, Woll.  12 different Leafs blocked shots last game as a key point in their heroic defending.  That combined with the fact that Toronto’s core 4 forwards can’t seem to get untracked with Florida’s physical and smothering defense indicates a low event affair tonight. 

Also of note is that all 4 games in this series have been under, Toronto has been under for their last 6 and head to head the Panthers and Leafs are 6-0 on unders for their last 6.  The Leafs may be under the gun to extend this series and you can pick under with confidence for tonight’s match up.

Dallas is a heavy favorite tonight, but the Kraken are a much better team on the road, and a very good candidate to bounce back after a loss this season. The total has edged up to 6 today; not surprising as every game has gone well over in the series.  Grubauer did not look sharp in Game four, and was pulled after 40 minutes.  He has been much less successful vs Dallas with a save % under .900 in three of four games this series.  The same could be said of Oettinger, with a surprisingly low  save % of .860.   Fatigue could be a factor; the young goalie has played a ton of hockey this year.    Seattle still managed three goals in spite of the Stars limiting the Kraken to just 19 shots.  The Kraken continue to surprise on offense, and with McCann back, offense could still be the name of the game tonight.  With the topsy turvy nature of wins in the playoffs, I am hesitant to pick a side today but I am big on the total.  Take the Kraken and Stars to again go over.

Every game this series has been over 5.5 and yet the sports books keep offering it to us and we’ll keep taking it. These two teams have averaged a total of 8 goals/game. Whether the Devils start Schmid or Vanecek doesn’t matter to me. Both have struggled in their last 10 and are barely above .500. Not a good look for the playoffs. So even though Carolina is not the most high octane offense they have consistently got to both goalies. And the Devils have the 4th ranked power play while the Canes penalty kill is 20th ranked. So the Devils should score their share as well. All bodes well for my record with this pick and another total above 5.5 for a fifth consecutive game.

The see-saw nature of the Oilers/Knights series continued with Vegas stymying the Oilers in Edmonton, allowing just a single goal.  Vegas is a very tough out in away games, and they held the Oilers power play to no goals, while limiting penalties.  Adin Hill replaced Broissoit, and was perfect in game three as he was in the third period of game two.

Skinner was sub-par in game three.  In spite of his fine performance in the previous game, the Oilers have to be wondering about their young goal tender, who has now started 12 straight games.  There is no doubt that the Oilers will be all in tonight, but superior net-minding and their solid defensive road style should at least keep the Knight close in this one.  Take Vegas on the puck line at +1 1/2. 10*

Toronto is on the ropes, down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. Everyone, against all the evidence expects them to finally push back and pull off a win. But with their top goalie injured all playoffs and now their second stringer, Samsonov injured as well, young Joseph Woll is thrown into the breach. His NHL career consists of 11 regular season and 2 playoff games. He lost both playoff games. Meanwhile, Bobrovsky has won 6 straight, all but one with a save % over .917. Florida is also 5-0 in their last 5 after a win, and 7-0 when their opponent scores 2 in the previous game. In the 3rd period and OT of game 3 against the Leafs, the Panthers’ scratch and claw style smothered a dispirited bunch of Toronto’s finest. There is nothing to indicate this will change in game 4. Bring out the brooms.

The last game surprised in many ways. Oettinger looking so shaky, Dallas so vulnerable without Heiskinen, and so many different Kraken scoring at will. That second period seemed to take the wind out of the Stars’ sails. Coach Deboer is a master at making between game adjustments. Even if Heiskinen plays, the injury could affect his offensive and defensive abilities. Seattle has some confidence now and the home crowd to boost them even more. With the possibility of Grubauer coming back down to earth as well, all of this bodes well for a high event, high scoring game. The over is 6-0 for the last six games between these foes. Dallas averaged 3.83 goals and Seattle average 4.0 goals over that span. The total set at 5.5 seems like a gift. Take the over and make like a bandit.

The Devils woke up on home ice, pounding two of the three Canes' goalies.  It remains to be seen if Raanta can go in game four or if Carolina will return to Andersen.  If it is anything like last series, it will be difficult for the Hurricanes to stuff the Devils' scoring genie back in the bottle, so we could be in for a wild ride in game Five.  NJ will come out flying again. Hughes broke out with four points, but New Jersey got scoring from a variety of sources.  Even Vanacek chipped in with an assist.  I have no faith in either of the Devils' netminders to limit Carolina.  I expect another barn burner with plenty of scoring. Game five will go over the total, possibly well over.

The Golden Knights could not contain the Oilers' high octane offense and their potent power play in Game two.  What was surprising was the Oilers, who are often defensively suspect, limiting the Knights to a single goal.  Vegas has been a much better away team this season, playing a tighter more disciplined style on the road that is very suitable to the playoffs.  They are a very well-coached team with an ability to adjust on the fly.   While the Oilers are a heavy favorite today, I am not ready to count Vegas out.  I think the Knights will focus on slowing down the Oilers down, at the cost of total goals.  The total went under in Game two, and an even higher number is available today. Look for a tighter checking game and take the total to go under.

The Stars were dominant in their Game two win, much better than the score would suggest.  Oettinger bounced back as expected, but the Stars also limited the Kraken to eighteen less shots.  Dallas was very good as a road favorite this season, while the Kraken were just 6-11 as a home underdog.  The Stars are healthy and were much the better team on offense in Game two, scoring four times on Grubauer  The Seattle goalie's save % has dropped  considerably to .890 in Round two.   The Kraken's 40 goal scorer, McCann, is still questionable to return on Sunday.  As  good as the Kraken's offense has been, I am banking on Oettinger and the Dallas defense today.  Take Dallas to win on the road.