I’ll start by pointing out that this is a revenge game for the Grizzlies, who were eliminated by the Warriors (in six games) in last season’s Western Conference semifinal.

Golden State would go on to win its fourth NBA title in eight years last June. But things have not gone well so far this season. They are just 15-18 on the season and sit in 11th place in the Western Conference.

The biggest news for this game is the continued absence of Steph Curry. Andrew Wiggins (groin) is another player dealing with an injury and his status is questionable. Though they’ve had three days off, this is not a great spot for the Warriors, who are playing at home for the first time since a 1-5 SU/ATS swing out East. Generally, it’s a good idea to fade teams in their first game back from a long trip.

It doesn’t help that the Warriors’ defense has fallen off a cliff this year. They are 21st in defensive efficiency, which is not at all encouraging when facing a Memphis team that now has Desmond Bane back in the lineup and just hung 125 in a blowout win at Phoenix on Friday.

Remembering last season’s playoff exit, the Grizzlies will be looking to make a “statement” here. They are back at full strength while the Warriors aren’t even close to that. Currently tied for the best record in the West, the Grizz are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the points with the much better team on X-mas. 10* 

Northwest Division rivals renew acquaintances right before Christmas with Denver hosting Portland. Speaking of Christmas, Denver plays on the holiday while Portland doesn’t. While not the full extend of my handicap here, I think there could be a bit of a lookahead for the Nuggets (host the Suns on X-Mas).

For Portland, this is the end of a six-game road trip. They’ve lost the last two games, both to lowly OKC, so they are desperate for a win here so they can return to their families with their collective heads hung high. I expect the Blazers to be fully motivated tonight. 

These teams have already split a pair of games in Portland this year. The Blazers won the first one by 25, but lost the second by 1. 

Something to consider is that while the Nuggets have the best record in the West through 30 games (19-11), three teams below them have better point differentials. Portland isn’t one of the three, but does sport an identical net efficiency rating for the season. 

The Blazers are a very respectable 11-6 ATS as underdogs while the Nuggets are 2-6 ATS overall in December. Take the points in this one. 10*

I think this is a good spot to grab the points and fade Utah. The Jazz were 126-111 winners on Tuesday, which was actually good for me as I had the Over in that game with the Pistons (my 10* NBA Total of the Month!) But here, they’re probably less motivated, which could be a problem facing a Wizards team that’s desperate for a win.

This is Washington’s fifth straight road game, all out West. They lost the first three games, but then upset Phoenix Tuesday, winning 113-110 as seven-point underdogs. The trip ends tomorrow in Sacramento. But I think the Wiz are likely to play better tonight. For what it’s worth, the Wiz are 7-5 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year with an almost even scoring differential.

Yes, the Wizards had lost 10 straight before beating Phoenix.  But with the proverbial “monkey off their back” now, I expect them to play better. Bradley Beal is back and averaging 28 points/game on 46% shooting since his return.

I am anticipating that Utah will crater and not be a team that finishes in the Top 10 out West. They are 25th in defensive rating. 

Washington beat this Jazz team 121-112, as a four-point home dog, back in November. Utah is only 5-5 in December and I don’t think they should be laying this many points. Back the dog. 10*

It’s been a much better season than usual in Sacramento where the fans haven’t seen the playoffs since 2005-06. That’s the longest postseason drought of any team in the four “major” North American sports. So far this season, the Kings are 16-13 and sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference.

But they’re coming off a loss, and a bad one at that, as they fell here at home to the lowly Hornets on Monday. Despite a monster game from Domantas Sabonis (28-23-7), the Kings fell 125-119 as 10-point favorites.

Perhaps you can blame the spot as the Kings were home for the first time following a six-game swing out East. Regardless, I expect them to bounce back here against a wounded Lakers squad that is now without Anthony Davis.

LA didn’t have LeBron either Monday at Phoenix and as a result got trounced 130-104 by Phoenix. They are now 2-5-1 ATS since December 6th. Even worse is the Lakers’ ATS record vs. division foes, which is 0-6. They have also lost all six games straight up.

It’s a decent sized number to lay here, however, the Kings are putting up 122.9 points/game at home. The Lakers, even with LeBron presumably back in the lineup, cannot keep up with that. The Kings are not only 6-1 ATS vs. division opponents, but 10-3 ATS against teams that have losing records (Lakers are 13-17 SU).

All of a sudden, Orlando has won six in a row and covered seven straight. They just swept a pair of games in Boston, but with the second being played yesterday, the Magic find themselves at a rest disadvantage here. Atlanta last played on Friday, when they blew out Charlotte 125-106 on the road.

That result was much needed for the Hawks as they’d previously dropped 8 of 11 amidst infighting. One of the losses came to the Magic as the Hawks apparently thought defense was optional. They gave up 50 points in the first quarter and ended up losing 135-124. 

But that was in Orlando. At home, I like the Hawks to exact some revenge here.

The Magic have yet to win in the second night of a back to back this season (0-4), losing by an average of almost seven points/game. 

Considering the Hawks were three-point favorites on the road in Orlando last week, it sure looks like we’re getting a discount on them for this rematch. Atlanta won the season’s first two meetings, by 10 and 17 points respectively. They are 8-2 SU/ATS vs. the Magic the last three seasons. Lay it. 10*

There is no doubt the Suns will be looking to avenge a pair of losses in New Orleans last week. But equally perturbed will be the Pelicans, who just dropped two in a row at Utah. I’ve got the Pelicans rated as the better team here and thus will be taking the points.

NO had won seven straight before those two losses in Salt Lake City. Their last two wins were both against the Suns as they won 128-117 and 129-124 at home. That second win required overtime. The pattern was then repeated in Utah with the second of the two games going to OT, only this time the Pelicans lost both times.

The Suns were on an 0-5 SU/ATS tailspin before catching a break and facing the Clippers, who sat four starters including Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, on Thursday. So there’s really no debate as to which of the teams involved tonight has been playing better. 

New Orleans is a top five team both on offense and defense. They are the only team in the league that can say that. They have the best point differential this year among Western Conference teams. Their record would be a lot better if not for four overtime losses.

The Suns are missing both Cameron Payne and DeAndre Ayton. Neither played Thursday and both are listed as being OUT for tonight. Give me the the Pelicans, off back to back losses and at full strength, catching the points. 10*

Cleveland has been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NBA, all year long. But this is too many points to lay in a division matchup. Only one time since 11/25 have the Cavs won back to back games. They are coming off a 105-90 win at Dallas Wednesday night. 

The Cavs’ defensive numbers have been outstanding. But Indiana comes in having scored 121 or more in three of its last four games and just beat the Warriors 48 hours ago. 

Revenge is a factor here as the Pacers were swept in the season series last year. Three of those games were decided by seven points or less. 

Indiana also has been good when facing conference foes this season. They are 10-6 straight up and against the number vs. the rest of the East.

I know Cleveland’s defensive numbers and home record makes for a scary fade here. But they are just 2-8 ATS when off a non-conference game and 1-5 ATS off their previous six SU wins. Take the points. 10*

The Pelicans are looking to avenge a 21-point loss they suffered right here in Salt Lake City two nights ago. I think they do it. Yes, I did have the Pellies on Tuesday. But I don’t see them shooting just 39.8% overall again nor do I see them missing 23 of 27 three-point attempts as they did last time. 

The Pelicans had won seven in a row before losing to the Jazz. They still have the best record, point differential and net efficiency among Western Conference teams, so there’s no reason to panic after one bad loss. I believe this team is simply better than Utah.

The Jazz were supposed to be bottom-feeders this season, but have surprised with a winning record (16-14 overall). I’m still not convinced they can remain “above water” though. They are a bottom 10 team defensively, which is another reason I don’t see New Orleans’ poor shooting from Tuesday repeating itself here.

Another thing to note from Tuesday. Zion Williamson played only 26 minutes due to foul trouble. He still scored 26 points. 

New Orleans ranks third on the defensive end, so that’s a big edge. When off a SU loss as a favorite this year, they are a perfect 4-0 SU. Lay the small number. 10*

Now seems like a good time to buy the Clippers. They are healthy with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both playing and just dismantled the Celtics on Monday (much to my dismay) 113-93 here at home. With Leonard and George on the floor together, this team is +18.3 per 100 possessions with a 99.3 defensive rating. Those are the kinds of numbers that were expected from a team many predicted could win the NBA Finals this season.

On the other hand, the Timberwolves haven’t seemed right all season. They are without Karl-Anthony Towns and just got beat twice in Portland. This is now their fourth road game in the last six days.

The most encouraging sign for the Clippers is that Leonard just scored 25 points on 10 of 12 shooting against Boston, his best game in some time. 

I already mentioned the Clippers’ defensive rating when both Leonard and George are out there. I think that they are likely to hold the T’wolves in check tonight. Minny has shot 51.4% over its last five games. That’s simply not likely to continue, which means trouble considering they’ve lost three of those last five games anyway. The Clippers were the first team all year to hold Boston under 100 points.

The Timberwolves simply have not been a good team to bet on this season as they are only 10-17 ATS overall including 3-6 as a dog. 8*

Here’s a spread that I don’t get. New Orleans, who now owns the best point differential in the entire NBA, is only laying a bucket to Utah? I realize that the Jazz have exceeded expectations to start the 2022-23 campaign, but they’ve recently dropped two straight and 8 out of their last 11. The Pelicans have won their last seven games.

When these teams played back in October, the Pelicans went off as eight-point home favorites. The Jazz ended up winning 122-121 in overtime. However, that was a fluky game where both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson got hurt. 

Ingram remains out for New Orleans, but it hasn’t mattered as the Pelicans just beat the Suns twice. This team ranks 4th in the league in offensive efficiency and is going against a Jazz team that is bottom five in defensive efficiency. 

Utah gets a lot of its points via second chance opportunities, but New Orleans is clearly the better rebounding team here and will limit the number of offensive rebounds for the Jazz. 

Utah has been missing a number of key players recently, but that alone does not excuse the recent skid. I simply think the oddsmakers set a bad number for this matchup. The Jazz are likely to continue regressing while the Pelicans are a top five team in the league. Lay it! 10*

Boston is looking  to bounce back from what was just their third loss since November 4th. The Celtics took it on the chin Saturday, losing by 16 at Golden State. The trends support a play on them here as this season has seen the team go 4-1 SU off a loss and they are outscoring their opponents by 7.4 points/game in this spot.

This is a double revenge spot for the Celtics, who lost both meetings to the Clippers last year. Road favorites playing with double revenge have hit 61% since 2018-19 and road favorites off a loss vs. an opponent off a win are hitting 60% over the last decade.

The Clippers are healthy now, but even so, Boston is the better team here. No team can match the Celtics’ scoring differential or net efficiency this season. They also have a historically great offense while the Clippers are 27th in offensive efficiency. 

The Clips have been shooting better from three recently, but Boston has been elite at defending the three-point line. The Golden State result was the exception to that rule. 

No Al Horford tonight for Boston, but they are 6-1 with him out of the lineup. Also, while the Celtics are playing a fifth consecutive road game, the Clippers have been busy as well. Tonight marks their fourth game in six days and fifth in the last eight days. Kawhi Leonard, set to play for just the ninth time tonight, is on a minutes restriction and posting career-worst numbers. The Celtics are 5-0 SU this season on the front end of a back to back. 10*

The Bulls have a key advantage coming into this Saturday night tilt and that’s they’re rested while Dallas just lost a heartbreaker last night at home to Milwaukee.  

Now the Bulls have been woefully inconsistent all year with their longest win streak at just two games. They did win last time out, which was Wednesday, beating Washington 110-107. But the Bulls did not cover, dropping them to 0-4 ATS L4 games.

But they did lead most of the way against Washington, only briefly trailing a couple of times after the first quarter. That was a home game for the Bulls, as is this. I’ll point out that the Bulls have played a pretty tough schedule to this point.

Going from home to the road, in the second night of a back to back, off two straight one-point games is just a terrible situation for these Mavericks. Especially after they were outscored 33-21 in the fourth quarter last night.  This team has also been inconsistent and them going 10 of 24 from the free throw line last night should give you pause.

On the road, the Mavs are only 4-8 SU and 3-7 against the spread. Last night was also a late game, which doesn’t help. 10*

Cleveland is having itself an awesome start to the season with a top five record in the league, not to mention a top three point difference and net efficiency rating. I expect the Cavaliers’ early season success to continue on Friday when they host the Sacramento Kings.

Now the Kings are also somewhat of an early season success story as they are in the top six out West, not a place anyone is accustomed to seeing them. But defensively, they have issues. They’re a bottom 10 team defensively and still give up 116 points/game. 

When they went to Milwaukee on Wednesday, the Kings allowed 126 points and lost by double digits. That’s not the way they wanted to start this six-game road trip.

The Cavs, on the other hand, are the league’s best defensive team. They are also 13-4 ATS as a favorite this season and 10-1 ATS at home. 

None of Cleveland’s last six points have been able to score more than 102 points. Jarrett Allen being back really helps on the defensive end of the floor. We’ll have to monitor two questionable players - De’Aaron Fox for Sacramento and Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland - but at the end of the day, the Cavs’ edge defensively will be too much for the Kings to overcome. Lay the points. 10*

The Celtics are an amazing 15-2 straight up over their last 17 games, but I think we’re catching them in a good spot (to fade) here in Toronto Monday night. This is the second night of a back to back for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, who defeated Brooklyn last night by a score of 103-92.

Teams off a win the previous day, playing in Toronto, are just 14-24 ATS (36.8%). 

Leading scorer Pascal Siakam is back for the Raptors, but he’s not the only one that turned in a big game Saturday against Orlando. O.G. Anunoby matched his season-high with 32 points in that game as the Raptors won convincingly, 121-108 and covered the spread as 11-point favorites. 

Boston has yet to lose in the second night of a back to back this season, which won’t continue. They are without their two best defensive players right now, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. Shockingly, they still held the Nets to just 92 points on Sunday, a season-low for a Celtics’ opponent.

But don’t expect a repeat of that here. Toronto shot 56% as a team against Orlando. The Raptors are rested and ready here and at home where they are 9-2 SU and +5.5 points/game. Take the points. 10*

The Lakers seem to be back on track. They just beat the Bucks on Friday, which was their seventh win in the last nine games. What was most impressive about beating the Bucks was that LA scored 133 points against the top rated defense in the league. Anthony Davis had 44 points while LeBron went for 28.

Washington is trending in the opposite direction right now. They’ve lost two straight and five of their last six. In each of those last six games, the Wizards have allowed 110 or more points. They went off as four-point favorites in the 117-116 loss to Charlotte on Friday.

The Wiz have not been blown out during this recent downturn, but there is no denying the fact they are trending in the wrong direction. They were down double digits for most of the second half against Charlotte after surrendering 72 first half points.

The Lakers, a top 10 team defensively, have posted their two highest scoring games of the season in the last week. 

Washington doesn’t do a good job at defending the three (37% allowed) and the Lakers should also own the paint in this matchup. I expect another big offensive night from LeBron and company against a team that is just 3-7 ATS when favored this season. 10*

Things are not looking good in Minnesota right now. Following three straight losses where the team posted a -11.9 net rating, the Timberwolves are a game below .500 and without Karl-Anthony Towns. 

But should the T’wolves be a dog at home against Memphis, who is still without Desmond Bane? I don’t think so. Dillon Brooks is also questionable to play tonight for the Grizzlies.

When these teams met in Memphis 19 days ago, the Grizzlies had Bane in the lineup and closed as only four-point favorites at home. They won 114-103 but I don’t think they should be laying a similar number, on the road, in tonight’s rematch.

The experiment with KAT and Rudy Gobert had not been working for Minnesota. So perhaps, short-term, KAT’s absence might be a positive. With one fewer big on the floor, the offense might open up and the T’wolves do turn the ball over less when KAT is not out there.

This will be the third time this year that Minnesota enters a game off three straight losses. They are 2-0 ATS the previous two times. Take the points against a Memphis team that is just 2-7 ATS on the road. 10*

Philadelphia has not only covered three straight, but also eight of their last nine games. Joel Embiid is now back in the lineup and he just went off for 30-8-7 in the team’s 104-101 triumph over Atlanta on Monday. 

After that one-game stop at home, the Sixers are back out on the road where they’ll face another top Eastern Conference team. Cleveland has been a pleasant surprise thus far, ranking second in the East in both point differential and net efficiency. 

But the Sixers are right behind the Cavs in those regards and are also one of only three teams with a higher defensive efficiency rating than Cleveland. 

After getting off to such a great start, the Cavs are only 5-5 SU in their L10 games. They’ve ruled out both Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love tonight, the former being a far more significant loss. Over the last two seasons, their record without Allen in the lineup is just 10-20. That includes 1-3 so far this season. 

I recognize Philly is without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. But they’ve got Embiid and he should be the difference maker tonight. Take the points with the 76ers. 10*

The Clippers beat Indiana on Sunday, but are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. So we’ll fade this short-handed team in Portland tonight as the Blazers are a lot better than the Pacers, despite losses in five of the last six games. 

Portland is still in the top six of the West, right behind the Clippers, with one fewer win due to playing one fewer game. 

Now Damian Lillard is out for the Blazers. So there will be a lot of star power missing in this one. But Jerami Grant is picking up the slack with 29 points in the last game, which followed a career-high 44 in a win over the Knicks Friday.

In addition to no George and no Leonard, the Clippers are also missing Luke Kennard and John Wall. They won’t be getting another game from Ivica Zubac like they did Sunday. Zubac is averaging a double double, but the 31 points and 29 rebounds vs. Indiana was a fairly ridiculous effort.

Portland is 3-0 ATS when coming off a double digit loss. 10*

This is all about which team is at full strength  and which team isn’t. Brooklyn has Kyrie Irving back and looks ready to make a move in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid, James Harden or Tyrese Maxey tonight. That’s their three best players! 

As a result, I’m laying the points with the Nets tonight. In Irving’s return Sunday, they shot 60% from the field. Ben Simmons even had 22 points (a season-high).

Irving had 14. Durant had 26, so he’s scored at least 25 in all 17 games this season. There’s just too many options here for Philly to slow down. 

The Sixers have played 97 possessions this season without Embiid, Harden and Maxey on the floor. They’ve been dominated during that time, getting outscored by almost 16 points. Both the offensive and defensive numbers take a major hit.

This game could get ugly in a hurry. It should be an easy double digit win for the visitors. 10*

We all understand that this is the end of a four-game road trip for Minnesota, who can now say they have won back to back games for the first time in November. 

Normally, the end of a trip like this can be a bad spot. But that’s not really the case tonight for the Timberwolves, who have had the last two days off. They also had two days off prior to beating Orlando 126-108 Weds night.

The opposition played last night, and for Philadelphia it was a hard-fought win here at home vs. Milwaukee. But the Sixers didn’t come out unscathed. Already missing James Harden from the lineup, they saw Tyrese Maxey go down with a foot injury on Friday.

So even though this will be their fourth straight game at home and Minnesota’s fourth straight road game, the situation is MUCH worse here for Philly. 

The T’wolves have posted a 127.5 offensive efficiency rating in the last two games, shooting 54% overall and 40% from three. They are in much better shape than the Sixers heading into Saturday. 10*

Golden State is just 6-8 to start the year, but they showed signs of life on Monday when they blew out San Antonio at home by a score of 132-95. I like them here on the road against a banged up Suns team.

Count on the Warriors taking this one seriously. It’s a chance to beat their main division rival and the team that has had the best record in the Western Conference over the last two years.

This is also a huge revenge spot as the Warriors were blown out by 29 points when they faced the Suns earlier this year. 

Phoenix has dropped two in a row coming into tonight, first to Orlando (114-97) and then to Miami (113-112). Overall, they are 2-4 L6 games. Two starters have been out - Chris Paul and Cam Johnson. Only Paul (questionable) has a chance of seeing the floor tonight. The defense has really fallen off a cliff with those two out and while Paul’s replacement Cam Payne did look good in a couple of the games, he went 4 of 17 against the Heat.

Golden State’s starting five has looked excellent of late and Steph Curry should be ready to go after playing a season-low 27 minutes against the Spurs. All signs point to this being a “statement game” for the Warriors. 10*

This is a revenge game for Chicago. They lost 115-111 at home to New Orleans exactly one week ago. That result was followed by another loss for the Bulls as they went down 126-103 at the hands of Denver on Sunday. The team has now dropped four of its last five.

But this time the Bulls catch the Pelicans in the second game of a back to back. New Orleans was kind to me last night with a 113-102 win over Memphis. I laid the short price as the Grizzlies were without one of their two best players (Desmond Bane). That was obviously a wise decision. 

The Pelicans didn’t even need Zion Williamson to win last night. He sat, but six teammates finished in double figures led by 30 points from CJ McCollum (who I predicted would have a big game). As a team, NO went 18 of 38 from three-point range.

I don’t see the Pelicans shooting as well tonight, even if Williamson returns, as they went just 3 of 19 on three-pointers the last game vs. Chicago. 

That previous meeting was closely contested with 14 lead changes and nine ties. Now, Chicago is better rested (just two games in last seven days) while New Orleans played last night. A big problem for the Pelicans has been interior defense, so that’s an area the Bulls need to attack here. 10* Chicago

Memphis is 9-5 with five wins in their last seven games. But they did lose on Sunday, 102-92 at Washington, without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That loss was also the Grizzlies’ lowest scoring game of this season. They are now 0-3 this year when either Morant or Bane does not suit up. 

Morant is off the injured list and Jaren Jackson Jr seems set to make his season debut tonight. But Bane being out 2-3 weeks is a significant loss considering he’s the team’s top three-point shooter. 

The Grizzlies have a pretty mediocre net efficiency rating. I think it’s fair to say that - so far - their schedule has not been all that daunting.

New Orleans is 7-6 and coming off a 119-106 win over Houston on Saturday. They’ll be home now through Thanksgiving, so they need to take advantage. So far the Pelicans are just 3-2 in home games. 

I understand Memphis’ optimism with JJJ and Morant returning. But New Orleans has the better point differential and net efficiency rating this season. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t play, the Pelicans have enough depth to pull this one out. In particular, look for CJ McCollum, long overdue to get hot, to have a big game. The Grizzlies let Washington hit 19 threes on Sunday. Lay the short number here. 10*

These teams just met Sunday and the Raptors came out on top 113-104. That was in Toronto though and Fred VanVleet was a monster, going for 30 points and 11 assists. 

Zach LaVine sat out yesterday for Chicago as his usage is being managed due to offseason knee surgery. The expectation is that he’ll play tonight. Also, you’ve got to expect more from DeMar DeRozan than what he gave the Bulls Sunday. Yes, DeRozan shot 7 for 9, but that was a season-low in field goal attempts. 

Tonight the Bulls get to play host and they’ve won three of four here in the Windy City. All three victories have been by a minimum of 15 points.

Toronto is without leading scorer Pascal Siakam and there’s no way VanVleet is going to be as productive as he was on Sunday. 

Another key takeaway from last night’s game is that Chicago turned it over 17 times, leading to 23 Toronto points. No way they are that careless again. I expect a Bulls’ bounce back at home where they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last four times hosting the Raptors. 8*

Once again, let’s take advantage of injury news and grab some value with an NBA underdog. Last night, it was Chicago getting it done for us with an outright win in Brooklyn. Tonight, Portland is going to be without Damian Lillard, but they are at home and I like them getting points vs. Memphis.

The Blazers did not have Lillard in the lineup last Friday, but still defeated the Houston Rockets by a score of 125-111. They’re well rested coming into Wednesday (four days off!) and are 5-1 SU on the season. 

Memphis is just 4-3 with the wins coming over New York, Houston, Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Grizzlies have been beaten twice by Utah and got blown out (by 41 points) in Dallas.

Ja Morant is having a strong start for the Grizz, but the problem for the team has been defense. Memphis has given up 120 or more points in five of the seven games so far, resulting in the worst defensive rating in the league. They miss Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for tonight, though I expect him to play. 

Yes, Memphis will be motivated by the back to back losses to Utah. Bettors will be tempted to lay a small number with a favorite hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. But Portland has the best record in the Western Conference and, when rested, can get the job done as a home dog. They beat the Grizzlies in three of the four regular season meetings last year. Take the points. 

The Nets have been a disaster at the betting window thus far, failing to cover in five straight and coming into Tuesday with a 1-6 ATS record on the season. This will be the second night of a back to back for them. Last night saw them defeat the Pacers 116-109 but just miss out on covering as 7.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, after dropping both games of a back to back, the Bulls have had two days to prepare for this game. They are potentially going to be short-handed though with LaVine, Dosunmu and White all listed as questionable. That’s in addition to both Drummond and Ball still being out.

But DeMar DeRozan will still be in the Bulls’ lineup and I think there’s still enough of a supporting cast around him (Vucevic, Caruso, Dragic) to get the job done. Certainly, Chicago should see improvement at the offensive end as the Nets can’t stop anybody right now. Brooklyn is third worst in the league in points allowed coming into Tuesday, giving up 120.3 per game. 

Last night’s win aside, the Nets just haven’t been very good so far this season. Them laying a short number at home in the second night of a back to back just feels like the oddsmakers are setting a trap. The Nets lack depth. This team is a horrible 13-37-1 ATS its last 51 home games. 8*

The Lakers stink. But because they are the Lakers and NBA’s lone remaining winless team, there are going to be bettors who want to keep playing them. I am here to tell you NOT to make that mistake!

Not only are the Lakers 0-5 straight up, but they are also 0-5 against the spread. They have been an underdog in four of those games and tonight will be their fifth time catching points. No team is worse when it comes to shooting from behind the three-point line. In fact, the Lakers’ current 28.3 3PT FG% would be sixth worst in league history over a single season.

Anthony Davis did not play on Friday when LA lost to Minnesota 111-102. He is hopeful to return this evening. Won’t matter though, Denver is simply the superior basketball team here.

The Nuggets have won four of five since a season-opening loss at Utah. The last time they lost, they led at half before falling apart down the stretch. By the way, Denver has already beaten the Lakers once this year, 110-99, and did so without the services of Michael Porter Jr (who is likely to play tonight). 

The Lakers are the worst offensive team in the league and just don’t have the firepower to stick with a team like Denver, who has averaged over 117 points in its last five games. Lay the points. 10* 

New Orleans was kind to me in their last game as they pulled off the upset, beating Dallas 113-111 as five-point home underdogs. They did so without three starters - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones. 

Ingram is already listed as being OUT for Friday while the other two (Williamson, Jones) are questionable to play. A fourth starter, CJ McCollum, is also listed as questionable.

Going on the road to face Phoenix, who had the league’s best record last season (including a league-high 32 wins at home), I don’t expect the banged up Pelicans to have the kind of success they had at home Tuesday night. 

The Suns, like the Pelicans, are 3-1 with the one loss being a one-possession game. But they just throttled both the Clippers and Warriors, beating those two by a combined 46 points! The Suns are in peak form right now and healthy, so look for them to take care of the wounded Pelicans.

These teams met in the first round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix won the series in six games. With the starting five for New Orleans so banged up, this line definitely looks to be a little “short.” 10*

Brooklyn is now 1-3 straight up and against the spread after losing 110-99 last night in Milwaukee. That result worked for me as I had the Under (233), making it a 24-point winner on this end. The Nets were not so fortunate as their second-half defensive woes continued. This team was outscored 67-44 in the 2H by the Bucks, blowing a 12-point lead in the process.

That came on the heels of another terrible 2H performance in Memphis Monday night where the Nets gave up 70 points after the break and lost by 10. Notable is that the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo both scored the majority of their points in the 2H. Of the 81 points those two players scored against the Nets, 66 came after the break. So don’t be surprised if the Mavs’ Luka Doncic is able to pour it on late tonight.

Not even 37 points from both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving was enough for the Nets last night. Durant struggled against double teams the last time he faced Dallas, getting held to 23 points on 8 of 20 shooting. Irving did not play in that game (due to the vaccine mandate at the time) but his presence here may not be enough to turn the tide, considering 74 points from the Nets’ top two players was not enough against Milwaukee.

Dallas is 1-2 on the year, but should probably be 3-0 as they blew fourth quarter leads in both losses. They had a 22-point lead against Phoenix in the opening game while the Pelicans (another winner for me) hot shooting (57.9%) was too much to overcome Tuesday. 

Playing in the second night of a back to back, Brooklyn won’t shoot as well as New Orleans did against the Mavericks. This is the first back to back for the Nets this season. They are 11-17 ATS in this situation the previous two seasons and have already given up 130 or more points twice to start 2022-23. The Mavs are 5-2 SU the last 7 meetings with the Nets and are the better team right now. 10*

I’m going to go ahead and assume Zion Williamson (bruised him) plays tonight. Now the Pelicans are banged up beyond Williamson as Brandon Ingram is in concussion protocol while Herbert Jones hyperextended his knee. But CJ McCollum is more than ready to go and you can look for New Orleans to cover the spread at home tonight.

With McCollum leading the way, New Orleans  erased all of a 17-point fourth quarter deficit against the Jazz Saturday night. Eventually, the Pelicans went down in overtime, their first loss of the season. I had them plus the points against Brooklyn in the season opener and then they also beat Charlotte 124-112 for a 2-0 start.

Dallas probably feels it should be 2-0 as they let a 22-point lead slip away in their season opener against Phoenix. The Mavericks then got off to another great start against Memphis on Saturday, but this time didn’t allow their opponents back in it. The Mavs won 137-96.

With or without Williamson, I look for the Pelicans to control the paint in this matchup. They did not trail at any point in the first two games of the season. 10*

Portland was pretty atrocious down the stretch last season, losing its last 11 games. But with a healthy Damian Lillard back in the lineup they have started the 2022-23 season with three consecutive wins and covers. I don’t like their chances tonight though, in the second night of a back to back, hosting Denver.

The Nuggets had a disappointing loss at Utah to open the season, but have since rallied to beat Golden State and Oklahoma City to make it a 2-1 SU start. Laying nine points, they failed to cover against the Thunder, winning just 122-117. That was the second night of a back to back though and the team still shot 52.6% from three-point range.

The final score against the Warriors was a bit misleading as well. Denver led that game virtually the whole way and was up 18 at halftime. They maintained a double digit lead through the third quarter before Golden State made a late run.

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has turned in back to back triple doubles for the Nuggets, who are also now getting key contributions from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, both of whom missed the entirety of last season due to injuries.

This is simply a great spot to fade Portland as they are off an emotional win over the Lakers last night where they trailed by seven with under two minutes left. Lay the points. 10* 

The Celtics put all the distractions surrounding Ime Udoka behind them and won on Opening Night, defeating the 76ers 126-117 as a five-point favorite. They shot 56.1% from the field and got 35 point games from both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It was a very nice start to the season for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs.

Can’t say the same for Miami, however, as the Heat were beaten 116-108 by a Chicago team that was a 7.5-point underdog. The thing is, Miami didn’t even play that poorly, aside from committing 19 turnovers. They just had no answer for DeMar DeRozan. 

Now they are set to face a much tougher opponent. Even at home, this short number is not enough for me to be interested in the Heat. Will Boston shoot as well as it did in the opener? Maybe not, but I still expect them to win this game. So I’m laying the points.

These teams played a seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals back in May. The Celtics have covered the number in five of their last six visits to Miami.

Malcolm Brogdon showed he can be a nice third scoring option for Boston as he went for 16 in the opener. The Celtics also did a good job defensively in the second half, limiting the 76ers to only 54 points. Miami will only go as far as Jimmy Butler carries them. Kyle Lowry was a no-show in the first game, shooting 1 of 7 including 0 of 5 from three. 10* 

The 76ers lost by nine up in Boston Tuesday, 126-117. They got solid contributions from James Harden and Joel Embiid, who combined for 61 points and 23 rebounds. Harden also had seven assists and went 12 for 12 from the FT line. But the rest of the team was “persona non grata” as the bench produced only 11 points.

At home, we should expect a far greater contribution from the Sixers’ supporting cast. Looking back, it was basically one bad quarter (the third) that did the team in against Boston. They outscored the Celtics (by one point) over the other three quarters.

This will be Milwaukee’s first game after going 0-5 in the preseason. Kris Middleton, their second best player, is out. That puts added pressure on Giannis Antetokounmpo. It wouldn’t be unlike the former MVP to step up, but he can’t do it all by himself and this is one of the top teams from the East that the Bucks are facing tonight.

Tuesday night saw Philadelphia get outscored on fastbreak points 24-2. That will not happen again. I also expect a better defensive effort after allowing the Celtics to shoot 56% from the floor. 10*

The Sixers have been very good at home the last two seasons, winning 61 of 90 games. Most of that is without Harden. Right now, they are a deeper (and better) team than the Bucks. Lay the points. 10*

New Orleans got off to a horrible start last year, but quickly turned things around and even earned the 8-seed by virtue of winning two games in the Play-In Tournament. They did so despite not getting a single game out of Zion Williamson, who is now back healthy and ready to start the 2022-23 campaign.

Brooklyn’s playoff stay was actually shorter than that of the Pelicans. The Nets were swept in the first round by Boston, ending a very disappointing run which saw Kyrie Irving miss a number of games. Kevin Durant wanted out in the offseason, but he and Irving are both set to return. So is Ben Simmons after an embarrassing end to the playoffs where he DNP in Game 4. 

I think things are going to get worse before they get better for Brooklyn. Durant wanted the coach and GM fired, but neither were and now everyone has to co-exist. We also don’t know how well Durant and Irving will play together.

The Pelicans have a solid starting five with Williamson back as CJ McCollum was a huge acquisition for this team last year. 

New Orleans can definitely score. They averaged 116.7 points over their final 26 regular season games, making them all the more enticing as an underdog in this spot. Grab the points. 8*

The Lakers are obviously a much different team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. Both will be ready to go Tuesday night in the series opener vs. Golden State. Thus I’m taking the points.

In the 108 regular season games that James and Davis have played together, the Lakers have gone 75-33 straight up, a win percentage of .690. Only the Suns had a win percentage higher than .690 last season.

While James and Davis should be happy to see one another tonight, I don’t know how the Warriors can possibly navigate the situation with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Additionally, coach Steve Kerr has openly questioned his own team’s conditioning. Yesterday he was quoted as saying the starters are not ready to play 30+ minutes. That’s troublesome.

We know that the Lakers won’t have Dennis Schroeder and Russell Westbrook may not play either. Still, plus the points, I believe they are the play. A motivated James and Davis should be enough to cover this spread.

The Lakers massively underachieved last season and will be ready to play. Golden State is likely to be more concerned with the pregame ring ceremony and thus expect a flat start from them. 10*

We’re rolling with Boston here to keep the season alive and force a deciding Game 7 in the NBA Finals. This will be the first time the Celtics are coming off back to back losses since the end of March, which was the regular season. They had been 7-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs off a loss, before losing Game 5 at Golden State, 104-94 as four-point underdogs.

Tonight, I think we’ll see the Celtics shoot a lot better than they did in Game 5. They were just 41.3% from the field on Monday, 34.4% from three. Being back at home obviously helps in that regard. 

However, his game being in Boston may help the Celtics out more defensively. They allow only 103.1 points/game at home. Golden State’s scoring defense goes to 108.9 on the road, up from 103.0 at home. 

Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 26-24 SU on the road. They will probably shoot better from three-point land tonight compared to Game 5 (when they were just 9 of 40 as a team and Steph Curry was 0 for 9). But that alone does not guarantee success. 

The Celtics have not lost three straight games since late December. They are at home, with their season on the line, tonight. When off a double digit loss, they are 10-3 ATS this season. Also, they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs when trailing in the series. Lay the points in Game 6! 

Neither of our two NBA Finalists have suffered consecutive defeats since the playoffs began. If that pattern holds, that means Boston will win this series in seven games. But that would also mean the Celtics win twice on the road. I don’t see that happening. Look for Golden State to take a 3-2 series lead Monday night as they are back home.

The Warriors have lost at home only 11 times all year. Game 1 of this series was one of those 11, but it was also the only home game they’ve lost during the playoffs. They are +10.5 points per game for the year at home and as I’ve mentioned before, defense improves for the Warriors here as they allow just 103.2 points per game compared to 108.9 on the road.

The Warriors have played 11 home games in the playoffs. Not only have they won 10 of them, but eight of those wins have come by double digits. They’ve covered five of the last six.

Steph Curry continues to be other-worldly. He’s averaging 34.3 points per game in the NBA Finals and has made 25 threes in four games. He’s shooting almost 50 percent from behind the arc. Curry’s supporting cast should help out more in Game 5 as role players typically shoot better at home.

This is a huge game where it’s very likely the winner goes on to take the series. I just see Curry and Golden State as being more likely to step up. Lay the points.

The best time to take the Celtics, at least in the playoffs, has been when they are coming off a loss. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, they are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss. Look for that trend to continue in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. 

After exploding in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Celtics fell apart in the third quarter of Game 2. They ended up losing 107-88, their largest margin of defeat in the entire playoffs (previous worst loss was 12). 

The team shot 37.5% in Game 2. At home, they’ll easily improve that number. Three-point shooting has been good in both games. Interestingly, everyone except Jayson Tatum seemed to shoot well in the first game. In the second game, Tatum was the only one to really show up. I’m looking for a more balanced effort in Game 3.

Golden State is an average team on the road, 25-23 with 109.1 points per game scored and 109.0 allowed. They allow six more points per game on the road than they allow at home, which is a big difference. 

Speaking of defense, look for Boston to do a better job on Steph Curry in this game. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS off a double digit loss this year. I figured that the Warriors wouldn’t lose both games at home, which is why I was on them in Game 2. But they’ve lost three of four on the road and aren’t winning both games in Boston. Lay the points.

It’s difficult for me to believe that the Warriors will lose two straight home games. Before a Boston three-point barrage hit them in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Warriors held a double digit lead. They are 4-0 this postseason off a loss, three of the four wins coming by at least 10 points.

Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, the Celtics have not won three games in a row. They are 0-2 ATS off back to back wins in the previous two series, dropping those games by a combined 19 points.

Boston isn’t going to make more than half of its three point attempts again. Al Horford was 6 of 8 from distance while Derrick White went 5 of 8. Those specific contributions are highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 2. 

Golden State is due for a strong effort at the defensive end. They’ve permitted an average of 113.7 points their last five games. For the year, they allow only 103.5 at home.

Steph Curry ran wild in the first quarter, but other than that, there were no standout performances from the Warriors at the offensive end. Lots of room for improvement in Game 2, whether you’re talking Draymond Green (2 for 12 in Game 1) or Jordan Poole (2 for 7). Lay the points. 

I can’t say that I expected there would be a Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but here we are. The Heat stayed alive with a 111-103 win on Friday night and get to host the deciding game. They are still underdogs, however. While that may sound tantalizing, look for Boston to advance to the NBA Finals.

Defensively, the Celtics had totally shut down the Heat for two games before Jimmy Butler exploded for 47 points in Game 6. Besides Butler, the rest of the Heat's starting five has scored just 89 points in the last three games combined. I do not think they can count on another game like that from Butler.

Boston is 15-4 straight up off a loss as a favorite this season and 14-5 against the spread. They are also 31-16 ATS on the road. Most important of all though is the fact the Celtics are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS off a loss in this postseason.

All five wins have been by at least eight points and three of them have been by more than 20. They’ve already won a Game 7 in these playoffs, over Milwaukee, though that one was at home.

The last time the Celtics lost back to back games was late March. Before that, it was mid-January. Everyone was writing off the Heat going into Game 6, a mistake in retrospect, however now it is time to buy low on Boston

Dallas kept its season alive with a 119-109 win in Game 4. Despite never trailing after the first quarter and enjoying a 29-point advantage entering the fourth, things did get a bit too close for comfort near the end of the game. Thankfully, here we need not worry about the Mavericks having to win by any kind of margin. I’m taking the points.

The “world” will likely be on Golden State to respond at home where they haven’t lost in this postseason. However, the Mavs did build a sizable halftime lead here in Game 2 (72-58) before imploding down the stretch. 

After getting off to a horrible start in Game 1, the Mavs have played the Warriors tough in this series. Their season is still on the line and while no team has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit, we know that we’ll be getting Dallas’ best effort from here on out. 

Golden State is surprisingly only 4-7 straight up following a double digit loss this year. 

Dallas had its biggest edge from long range in Game 4. While I think it’s unlikely they can be +30 again, they have made more threes than the Warriors in all four games. The pointspread has yet to come into play in any Conference Finals game so far. It may very well here. 

This Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami has seen the two teams exchange blowout victories. The series is 2-2 heading back to Miami after the Celtics won easily in Game 4, 102-82 as seven-point favorites.

The Celtics have yet to lose back to back games in these playoffs. Going back to their second round series vs. Milwaukee, there’s also been just one instance of them winning back to back games. But if you think this is leading to an endorsement of the Heat for Game 5, guess again.

Boston was not favored in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami. They are slight favorites tonight. Game 1 they were missing Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Smart (questionable for tonight) was out again in Game 4, but that hardly mattered as Derrick White started in his place, scored the game’s first seven points and finished with 13-8-8.

Only Tyler Herro sat for the Heat in the last game. He and Kyle Lowry are listed as questionable tonight. After the Heat scored just 82 points in Game 4, which included just 18 from the starting five, I understand why many would feel there’s a Miami bounce back forthcoming. But I just happen to think Boston is better. 

The Celtics’ two wins in the series have been by a combined 45 points. The Heat’s two wins have been by a combined 17 points. Boston has been up at the half in three of the games. Jimmy Butler is clearly not himself with just 14 points the last two games. Lay the points. 

For the second series in a row, the Mavs return home for Game 3 down two games to none. We all recall what happened against Phoenix in the last round. Now I’m not saying the Mavs pull that off again, but I do like them here in Game 3. 

Certainly, Dallas feels that this Western Conference Final should be all squared away at one game apiece. They led Game 2 for most of the first three quarters and were up 14 at half. Luka Doncic had 42 points. But it was not to be as Golden State raced past them in the fourth.

The Mavs have won five straight at home in these playoffs since losing Game 1 of the Utah series (without Doncic). Something I have mentioned before is that they are #1 in the league in fewest points allowed at home (101.0 per game). I can assure you that the Warriors will not be shooting 56% again as they did in each of the first two games.

Though Coach Jason Kidd quipped that his team “died by the three” in Game 2, I expect the Mavs will continue to fire from behind the arc in this game. They’ve attempted 93 threes in the series. They made 21 in Game 2. Golden State shot a higher percentage, but will not repeat going 50% from deep as they did in Game 2. 

Golden State has failed to cover each of its last four road games. Dallas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Lay the points

I like Dallas to rebound here from its embarrassing Game 1 defeat. The Mavericks scored only 18 points in the first quarter and when you do that against a team like the Warriors, it’s pretty much “all over but the shouting.” The Mavs ended up shooting just 36% for the game, including 23% from three. 

You’ve got to expect better shooting here tonight from the road underdog. Over the previous three seasons, Dallas is 29-9 ATS after a game in which it was held under 100 points. They are 19-4 ATS in that situation this season. Also, the team is 12-4 ATS in 2021-22 when coming off a double digit defeat.

I can’t fathom Golden State shooting 56.1 percent again like they did in Game 1. Dallas has been an excellent defensive team all season long and held Phoenix under 100 points three times in that series. 

Dallas should shoot much better from long-range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. Doncic, Brunson, Bertans and Bullock went a combined 6 of 29 from behind the arc. 

Even with Games 3 and 4 taking place at home, the Mavericks obviously want to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-2 hole. They fought their way out of it against Phoenix, but it would be much tougher to do that against Golden State. Take the points in Game 2. 

I think most are underestimating the Mavericks coming into the Western Conference Finals. This is a team that has already eliminated Utah and Phoenix, two very good teams, and just delivered an emphatic 123-90 win on Sunday in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. So no one should be underestimating them.

Luka Doncic averaged 32.6 points per game against Phoenix. In four regular season matchups vs. the Warriors, he averaged 31.5. That was the fourth most points scored against Golden State in a single season since Steve Kerr became head coach. 

Gary Payton II would have been the primary defender on Doncic, but he’s out with an injury. So I think Golden State is going to give up more points than what you might think for Game 1. Dallas did have the one bad offensive game vs. the Suns where they scored only 80 points. But since then, they scored 113 and 123. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in the 2021-22 season following a game where they allowed 90 or fewer points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS off their previous five SU wins and have only covered two of their last eight games overall.

In case you hadn’t figured it out by now, I’m taking the points in Game 1. Doncic is playing at an elite level and the Mavericks have the higher net efficiency rating through two rounds of playoff action. 

Memphis sure fooled me in Game 5, beating Golden State by 39 points despite not having Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have won 21 of their 27 games without Morant in 2021-22 and have basically led throughout the last two games. So I’m pretty confident that the underdog keeps this one close. 

Two of Golden State’s three victories in this series have been by a combined four points. As I just said, last time they were here at home, they were behind most of the way only to get bailed out by a Steph Curry fourth quarter surge. (The Warriors ended up winning by three).

Memphis has led for nearly 46 of the 48 minutes in the two games since Morant got hurt. All season long, the Grizzlies have demonstrated tremendous depth. Seven players were in double figures in the last three. Three scored exactly 21 points. 

Steve Kerr is still not coaching for the Warriors because of COVID-19. It seems to have had an effect. Also, the Warriors have scored 101 points or less in three of the last four games.

The Grizzlies are 23-15 ATS as underdogs this season, winning 20 of those games outright. They are also 19-5 ATS vs. the Pacific Division, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Warriors. More importantly, they are 4-0 ATS this postseason when behind in the series. Memphis has covered four of the five games so far while Golden State is just 1-6 ATS its last seven overall.

Philadelphia must win here to stay alive. The good thing is they are at home where they’ve already beaten the Heat twice, by 20 and 8 points. It’s difficult to imagine the 76ers’ shooting not improving from the last time out. Game 5 marked the fourth time in these playoffs that the 76ers were held below 100. They averaged 117 points the next time out, the previous three instances.

Similarly, look for Miami’s shooting to decline in Game 5. They were 7 of 30, then 7 of 35 from three-point land in the previous two games here in Philly. 

No one on the Sixers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Think that might change here? With Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, I’m expecting at least two Sixers players to top 20 tonight.

Other than Jimmy Butler, only Bam Adebayo in Game 4 has turned in a 20+ point effort for the Heat over the last three games. 

Philadelphia is 17-5 straight up, 14-8 against the spread this season following a sub-100 point game. The previous time they got held below 90 (Game 5 vs Toronto), they responded by scoring 132 in the next game. Lay the points here.

I like the Warriors to close out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and also to cover the spread. Memphis won’t have Ja Morant, which is a big loss even if the team is 20-6 (straight up) this season without its star point guard and also turned in an admirable effort in Game 4 Monday night.

But you can’t expect Golden State to go 9 of 35 on three-point tries again like they did in the last game. The Warriors also had a bad night from three in Game 2 (7 of 38). The next game they bounced back to make 17 of 32 from beyond the arc and shot 63.1% overall. 

Memphis shot a similar three-point percentage in Game 4 (25.7%). The difference is that without Morant, their chances of improving aren’t as great. Let us not forget that even when Morant was healthy, the Grizzlies needed three huge comebacks in the first round to eliminate Minnesota. 

The expectation is that Steve Kerr will again not coach for the Warriors as he remains in health and safety protocol. But that doesn’t really concern me. Golden State is 12-0 SU all-time in the playoffs when associate Mike Brown fills in as the head coach. 

Golden State should smell “blood in the water” here and be looking for the kill. It is in their best interest to end this series tonight with the chance Phoenix could move to the Western Conference Finals with a win tomorrow. The Warriors winning here and that Phoenix-Dallas series going seven games would be the dream scenario. Lay the points tonight. 

When Dallas headed home to face Phoenix for Game 3, they had lost to the Suns 11 straight times and were facing an 0-2 series deficit. Now the series is all tied up after a couple of impressive wins at home. The Suns are the team that is reeling entering Game 5 tonight.

We’re back in Phoenix, but I see the Mavericks playing a lot better Tuesday night than they did in either Games 1 or 2. Though they did end up losing by 20, the Mavs were ahead at halftime in Game 2. And though they were down the whole way in Game 1, they only ended up losing by seven with a chance to “steal the cover” late (they did not). 

Remember something I’ve previously written. The Suns posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced out of the first round. That was against the 8th seeded Pelicans.

Dallas was +33 from behind the three-point line in Game 4. We probably shouldn’t count on that transpiring again. But they’ve made more threes than Phoenix in the series and in every game but one (both teams made 13 in Game 3). 

I happen to think the teams are a lot closer than these odds would seem to suggest. Dallas is definitely the better defensive team in this Western Conference semifinal. Grab those points.

This series feels a lot different now that Joel Embiid is back for Philadelphia. The 76ers rolled to a 99-79 win in Game 3 as the home team has yet to lose in this best of seven affair. While we can’t count on Miami shooting as poorly here as they did in Game 3, I still like the Sixers to win and cover Game 4. 

Still at +285 to win the series, the Sixers seem a bit undervalued to me. Embiid had only 18 points in Game 3, well under his season average, and eight of those came from the FT line. It was a bit of a surprise return Friday night. I’m expecting more from Embiid tonight.

James Harden also has yet to “go off” in this series, even with Embiid not playing either of the first two games. Harden has scored only 53 points in the series, on 15 of 39 shooting. He’s 4 of 19 from behind the arc. If we get anything approaching “typical” performances from Harden and Embiid here, then we should be in VERY good shape.

Also, the Sixers’ other three starters (Harris, Maxey, Green) have all shown an ability to contribute in meaningful fashion. 

For Miami, Jimmy Butler scored 33 points in Game 3, but only one other teammate (Tyler Herro) joined him in double figures and it took a rather inefficient effort. Kyle Lowry didn’t score (attempted only four shots) in his first game back from a hamstring injury and Bam Adebayo was a non-factor, going just 2 of 9 from the floor. I really like the Sixers here.

After losing Game 1 on their home floor, 101-89, the Celtics bounced back to win Game 2 109-86 and are now back to being favored to win this best of seven series, which now moves to Milwaukee. Despite the change in home court advantage, I like Boston to still walk away with the ATS win in Game 3. 

The Celtics are 10-1 ATS vs. the Bucks the last three seasons. With Khris Middleton still out for Milwaukee, it feels like laying points would be a bad idea here. Sure, the Bucks will shoot better than they did in the last game, but will improved shooting be enough?

Overall shooting was pretty even in Game 2, but it was from three where the Celtics had a huge edge. They were 20 of 43 while Milwaukee was 3 of 18. Boston was up 25 points at halftime. 

Boston had the best regular season point differential in the Eastern Conference and is considered the favorite to make the NBA Finals. So it makes sense to bet them here. I’m just not sure Milwaukee can maintain its current defensive rating in the playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is expected back for Game 3. His Celtics are now 33-8 SU their last 41 games. They’ve covered five in a row as underdogs and are the better team. 

Both home teams on Friday are down 0-2 in their respective series. You would have to go all the way back to 2019 to find the last time the Mavericks beat the Suns head to head. The losing streak is now 11 games. I think tonight is the night they snap it. 

This projection may seem a bit “brave,” but Dallas is 32-12 straight up at home this year. Looking at the home vs. road splits for both them and the Suns, one thing really stands out. The Mavs are only allowing 101.5 points per game at home, well down from the 108.0 points per game they give up on the road.

So you should expect Phoenix to score a lot fewer points here than they did in either Games 1 (121) and 2 (129). The Suns made 64.5% of their shots in Game 2 and were 13 of 25 from three. That’s just not sustainable, especially when now going out on the road and facing what has been one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Dallas is 5-0 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 125 or more points. So recent history points to them putting the clamps down and bouncing back here. 

I think the other key is that Dallas needs someone to step up besides Luka Doncic. At home, that should happen. In each of the first two games, Doncic has scored more than the other four starters combined. Look for a more balanced effort from the Mavs tonight as they get back into the win column.

Joel Embiid has been downgraded to OUT for Game 3 and that’s not the news Philadelphia wanted to hear as the Sixers are already down 2-0 in this series with Miami. But the Heat have a number of “banged up” players themselves and considering the sense of desperation for the Sixers (who are now back home), I like them to cover in this spot.

The market reacted swiftly to the Embiid news with Miami now favored by a few points on the road. But don’t forget, up two games to none in the first round, they lost Game 3 at Atlanta. Even without Embiid, the 76ers are a stronger team than the Hawks. They have James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris.

Maxey and Harris each turned in a breakout game in Miami. But Harden was disappointing in the two games, scoring only 36 points and shooting 11 of 28 from the field. I expect him to play a lot better tonight.

As a team, look for Philly to shoot much better from three-point land than they did in either of the first two games. They are 14 of 64 from behind the arc in the series. That’s well below their season average of 36.4% for the year.

This will be the 76ers first time playing at home in 12 days and only their second game here since April 18th. I expect the place will be “rocking.” Take the home underdog.

The Mavs have now lost nine straight times to the Suns following a rather dismal performance in Game 1 where they lost 121-114 as 5.5-point underdogs. While the ATS result came down the wire, that final score really isn’t indicative of how the game actually went. Dallas was down double digits most of the way.

Luka Doncic did his part for the Mavericks in Game 1, turning in a 45-12-8 game. But the rest of the starters combined for just 39 points. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie finished well below their respective scoring averages in Game 1. I’m expecting both to play better tonight.

For Phoenix, Devin Booker still seems hobbled by a hamstring injury. He’s shot just 12 of 32 in the two games since returning. 

Defensively, the Mavs have been one of the top teams in the NBA this year. They allow only 104.5 points per game and kept Utah, one of the league’s most efficient offenses, to only 99 points per game.

Doncic has only played two of the four games against Phoenix this year. I think the Mavs’ three-point shooting keeps them in this game and I would not rule out an upset here. Grab those points.

Boston should bounce back in Game 2. They shot 10 of 34 (just 29.4 percent!) from inside the arc in Game 1. That was their lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts all season. There have been only seven times all year that the Celtics shot below 45 percent from two-point range. 

Following those poor shooting nights, the team has consistently been able to rediscover its shooting touch, making an average of 55 percent from inside the arc the next game. 

I think it’s a given that Boston improves offensively for Game 2. Defensively, they were #1 in points allowed during the regular season. They held Milwaukee to 101 points on 41.1% shooting in Game 1 and I think they are capable of doing the same again tonight.

Just to reiterate what I’ve said so far, the Celtics are 10-5 against the spread this season after being held under 100 points. They are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite.

Remember that Milwaukee is missing its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. His production is more difficult to replace on the road. Not sure the Bucks can count on another 25-point performance from Jrue Holiday tonight. They are 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less the previous game. Lay the points in Game 2.

Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big favorite to win this series with Dallas. But it was by no means a dominant first round effort by the Suns. They needed six games to eliminate the 8-seed New Orleans and posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced.

Some of the subpar performance could be pinned on leading scorer Devin Booker missing most of the series. Booker played in only three games and only once did he log more than 32 minutes. The Suns did win both games Booker finished. 

But what about Dallas eliminating Utah, despite not having Luka Doncic the first three games? That was more impressive than the Suns without Booker. The Mavericks have covered five in a row and the only game they lost was decided by one point.

The Mavs last win over the Suns came in November of 2019. They’ve lost nine in a row to Phoenix since. But recall Milwaukee’s history vs. Boston was not good. Until yesterday when I backed the Bucks. Two of the three games Dallas lost to Phoenix this season, Doncic was out. 

These teams are more even than you’re being led to believe. Not only does Dallas have Doncic, they have Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points per game in the first round. Defensively, the Mavs are one of the top teams. They held Utah to 99 points per game. For the year, they are holding opponents to 104.3 points per game.

Needing all those late game heroics to overcome Minnesota in the first round, Memphis almost seems like it’s being “written off” for Game 1 against Golden State. But the Grizzlies are at home Sunday where they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. I say grab the points in Game 1 as the Warriors look like a VERY “public” side. 

Memphis won three of the four regular season games against Golden State and handed the Warriors their worst loss of the season. That comes with an asterisk though as the Warriors’ 28-point loss here in Memphis came without the services of Curry, Thompson and Green. 

But that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies won’t win again here. Golden State is only 23-20 on the road where it gives up about six more points per game than they do at home. Also the Warriors might be rusty. They haven’t played since Wednesday.

Five Grizzlies averaged double figures in round one and it was not Ja Morant leading the way. It was Desmond Bane, who averaged 23.5 points and made 27 threes. Morant wasn’t far behind with a 21.5 PPG average vs. Minnesota.

Memphis is 32-12 at home, winning by almost nine points per game. They are a great value play in Game 1. Grab those points.

The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs.

The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. 

Shockingly, the Bucks are 0-9 ATS the last nine games vs. the Celtics. But today’s game marks just the second time that the Celtics will have been favored to beat the Bucks.

Khris Middleton is a big loss for the Bucks (he’s their second leading scorer), but consider the way Milwaukee played defense in the first round. They posted the best defensive efficiency rating of any team. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo can still carry this team to victory. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is dealing with an injured hamstring. This is a far more even matchup than what the series odds say. Grab the points in Game 1. 

The Suns were expected to roll in this series, but now are hoping just to avoid a Game 7. Leading scorer Devin Booker hasn’t played since Game 2. Phoenix has won two of the three games without him and a Game 6 return by Booker is now considered a possibility. But I like the Pelicans at home in this one. 

The old trusty zig-zag theory has played out according to script in this series. Neither team has been able to cover two in a row. If that pattern holds, then New Orleans will likely force a Game 7 (they are short underdogs). 

The last game in New Orleans was won by the Pelicans 118-103. The Pels were then betrayed by three-point shooting in Game 5, making only 5 of 25 attempts. They’ll be far better than that in tonight’s game. CJ McCollum was 1 for 8 from distance in Game 5 and 3 for 17 the last two games. I expect him to start making shots at a higher percentage here.

The Suns have yet to score more than 114 points in any game during the series. New Orleans is averaging 111.5 at home for the season. If they hit their average, we’re in good shape tonight.

Don’t think Mikal Bridges will score 31 again like he did in Game 5. (That was a career playoff high). Booker or no Booker, I don’t like the Suns’ chances here. Take the points.

After completely destroying the Hawks in Game 4, 110-86, the Heat have a chance to close out this series at home. All three of Miami’s wins in this series have been by double digits while Atlanta’s lone triumph was by a single point after a Trae Young game winner. The Heat probably should have swept this series. Look for them to close things out tonight.

Atlanta just isn’t any good defensively. They are allowing 112.5 points per game in the series, which I guess is not all that surprising as they allowed 112.4 in the regular season and came into the playoffs with the worst defensive efficiency rating of all remaining teams. 

It hasn’t helped that Young has struggled mightily. He’s averaging just 16.5 points per game while shooting 32.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from three. He was held to just nine points on 3 of 11 shooting in Game 4 and he attempted just one free throw as 10 of his 11 shots were launched from behind the arc.

Young and the Hawks have now been held under 100 points in two of the four games. Miami clearly knows what it’s doing defensively and Atlanta has no game plan to solve it.

The Hawks are 0-42 ATS in their straight up losses this season, including 0-23 as underdogs! They are 6-20 ATS as road underdogs. Series over.

Could the Nets really be swept right out the first round? Bet on it! Boston, who many believed could come out of the East if they won this series, is quickly cementing itself as the team to beat in this conference. They are clearly the better team in this series and I will take the points in Game 4.

Though both Philadelphia and Golden State failed to sweep their series, teams holding a 3-0 series lead are still on a 29-15 straight run in Game 4’s. 

There is simply no homecourt advantage for Brooklyn this year as they’ve gone 9-33 ATS at the Barclays Center. While the knee-jerk reaction to that record is to blame the absence of Kyrie Irving for most of those games, the bottom line is the Nets are 1-7 ATS their last eight games here, including the 109-103 loss in Game 3. 

Kevin Durant is struggling mightily in this series. He’s averaging only 22 points per game on 36.5% shooting. That scoring average would be the lowest in any postseason series in Durant’s entire career. I can’t say that I’m that surprised as Boston is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA. They are even stronger with Robert Williams back. Al Horford is having himself an excellent series. Jayson Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.7 while shooting better than 50 percent.

Boston is 14-8 ATS in the underdog role this season. Brooklyn is 17-38 ATS as a favorite. I expect the Celtics to end this series Monday night. 

The Jazz ought to be embarrassed here as they are down two games to one in this series, despite Luka Doncic having not played a single minute for the Mavericks. Doncic says he’s feeling “no pain” in his calf and thus his status has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4. Either way, I like Utah minus the points in this one.

Perhaps the Jazz got overconfident when it was announced that Doncic would miss Game 3. They were down 17 at halftime and while it turned into a close game in the fourth quarter, Utah still lost by eight points. This despite shooting 56.5% overall from the field and going 31 of 33 from the free throw line!

The big difference in Game 3 was Utah shooting 9 of 28 from three while Dallas was 18 of 42. Making twice as many three as your opponent is a big deal and is a discrepancy that certainly isn’t likely to be repeated here in Game 4. I also can’t see Jalen Brunson continuing his run, whether Doncic returns or not, as Brunson has averaged 36 points the last two games. 

Utah is an outstanding team at home where it has outscored its opponents by 9.4 points per game this year. Only Golden State has beaten its visitors by a wider margin over the course of 2021-22. 

This is a must win game for the Jazz. Whether or not Doncic returns for Dallas, look for the Jazz to cover the spread. 

Even without Devin Booker, I expect the Suns to beat the Pelicans in Game 3. They outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions without Booker when Chris Paul was on the court. Look for Cameron Payne to step it up in Booker’s absence as well. 

In Game 2, New Orleans took full advantage of Booker leaving, springing a 125-114 upset. They shot the lights out, making 17 of their 30 three-point tries and finishing at 54% overall from the field. Even though they are now back at home, don’t look for the Pelicans to match their Game 2 shooting.

It is important to note that Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a loss. They are 63-34 in that situation the previous three seasons.

The Suns are simply the better team here, having won 63 games in the regular season. Booker missed 14 regular season games. The team has the second highest defensive efficiency rating on the road and can claim a 13-3 ATS mark when the spread is three points or less, in either direction.

Coming off its best three-point shooting night of the entire season, there’s no way that New Orleans doesn’t regress offensively here. It would be a shock to see the Pelicans win this series, so I’m playing this one accordingly.

The Suns did nothing in Game 1 to dissuade you from thinking they are the best team in the league. They jumped all over the Pelicans, taking a 28-16 lead after the first quarter and never looking back after that. They led by 19 at halftime and ended up winning 110-99, just barely covering the 10-point spread. 

Remember that New Orleans had to win twice just to get here, so they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the first game.

But that disadvantage no longer exists for Game 2 and I’m liking the Pelicans to at least cover the spread in tonight’s matchup. While Phoenix is 24-3 straight up this season as a favorite of eight points or more, they are only 14-13 against the spread.

New Orleans shot especially poorly from two-point range in Game 1. They made only 27 of 72 attempts inside the arc, which is 37.5%, a very low number. Expect them to be more efficient there tonight. Eight missed free throws in Game 1 didn’t help the Pelicans either. 

Despite digging themselves into such an early hole, the Pelicans found themselves down only six in the fourth quarter. I don’t expect them to fall into that kind of an early hole again in Game 2. Take the points here as New Orleans is 5-1 ATS following its previous six SU losses. 

Minnesota had to win a game in the Play-In Tournament to get here, but I believe they are being undervalued in Game 1 at Memphis. The Timberwolves were very much on par with some of the teams in the West’s top six - like Dallas and Denver - and I expect them to make this a competitive series. 

I am pretty confident that the Timberwolves will get a better game out of Karl-Anthony Towns than what they got Tuesday vs. the Clippers. Towns played one of the worst games of his career, finishing with 11 points on only three made baskets. He also fouled out. But teammates Edwards (30 points) and Russell (29) bailed KAT out. 

These teams met four times in the regular season and each won twice. While the home team won all four games, all but one was close and that was a 138-95 win for the Timberwolves. Thanks to that one blowout, Minnesota outscored Memphis in the four games and shot better - both overall and from three.

The fact Memphis hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite awhile may have an adverse effect here. Ja Morant has played only one game since March 18th. He was 3 for 20 on three-point attempts in the four games vs. Minnesota this year.

The Timberwolves have won and covered all three times this year when they’ve played with three or more days of rest. Memphis did have the second best record in the league and isn’t what I’d call a “public team,” but they are overvalued here. Take the points.

It’s win or go home for the Pelicans and Clippers tonight on ESPN. The winner of this game will be the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser’s season will come to an end.

Home teams have gone 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tournament. New Orleans was one of the four winners by beating San Antonio 113-103. They were up by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers were not as good down the stretch in Minnesota and they lost 109-104. But by virtue of finishing in 8th place, they get a second chance and are the home team for this game.

The Pelicans’ top three players all got the job done Wednesday. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas combined for 81 points on 32 of 56 shooting. I do not think you should look too much into the team’s 37-46 SU record. They are 34-30 since a dreadful 3-16 start and have been a much better team since acquiring McCollum. 

The Pelicans were 3-1 vs. the Clippers this season with the three wins coming by an average of 18.7 points. Also, Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. 

Even with the home court advantage, I’m not sure that LA should be favored here. Certainly not by this many points. Take the underdog here as an outright win would not surprise me. Paul George just doesn’t have enough help. 

The 76ers won Saturday 133-120 against Indiana. Joel Embiid had 41 points and 20 rebounds, the first time this season that any player had a 40-20 game. Embiid all but wrapped up the scoring title and the Sixers are guaranteed home court advantage for their first round playoff series.

There’s a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Sixers will be locked into the 4-seed. In order to move up into third, they would not only need to win this game, but have Boston lose earlier in the day to Memphis. If Boston wins that game, then the Sixers are locked into 4th. 

With the chance the Sixers have nothing to play for, I’ll take my chances here and grab the points. And even if the 3-seed is still a possibility, I don’t think the Sixers will win by enough to cover the spread.

There’s a chance that a Pistons’ win might hurt their lottery odds, but I still expect a semblance of pride and professionalism to take place here. "We just want to finish with the right spirit and the right togetherness," Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey said. 

Detroit has been on some incredible runs at the betting window. They are 18-3 ATS L21 as an underdog and 11-0 ATS L11 road games. Grab the points.

The Wizards and Knicks enter Friday with identical 35-45 straight up records. It’s been a disappointing campaign as both made the playoffs last year. The Knicks have really fallen as they were 4th in the East last season. 

New York has lost three of four, the only win coming against last place Orlando. They blew a 21-point lead to the Nets on Wednesday and ended up losing that game 110-98, not even covering!

Washington also experienced a double digit setback two days ago. They fell 118-103 in Atlanta. Before that though, they’d won three of four and put up 127 or more points in all three wins. 

I think by virtue of being at home, the Wizards have the edge Friday. This is their last home game of the season, so there should be some motivation to win the final game in front of fans. They are 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, going back to the end of March.

The Knicks have covered eight straight times as road underdogs and won their last four road games straight up. But those streaks end tonight. Two of those road wins were Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks (27th in scoring) just won’t be able to match the Wizards (119.8 PPG L5) offensively. 

It may seem like San Antonio is getting “a lot” of points in this matchup, but consider this is a team that has been well below .500 most of the year. There is a reason they are just trying to squeak into the play-in tournament. They simply aren’t that good.

It’s true that the Spurs have been winning lately, six of their past seven games. But three wins were against a dreadful Portland team and they also beat last place Houston. Denver is in a different class of those aforementioned foes.

The Nuggets are looking to clinch a spot in the top six of the conference standings, which will allow them to avoid the play-in tournament. They just need to win two of their final three games, all of which are at home 

The Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for tonight. That’s significant. 

Denver has scored 125 or more points in each of its last three contests. This is a team that’s been on fire offensively and without Murray, I don’t see how the Spurs keep up.

The Bulls just can’t beat the top teams in the league. On Saturday, they lost by 16 here at home to the Heat, dropping them to 2-19 for the season against the four best teams in the East and West. The Bulls’ record vs. Milwaukee this year is 0-3, two of those losses coming last month, the last one by 28 points.

Throw in the fact the Bucks are going to come in motivated tonight and I’m all about fading the Bulls in this one. The Bucks have lost two straight. One of the losses saw them give up 153 points. The other, Sunday vs. Dallas, saw them blow an early lead.

That game where Milwaukee allowed 153 points should be disregarded as they rested their starters. The Bucks should be at full strength tonight. Look for Antetokounmpo and Middleton to shoot the ball better than they did vs. Dallas. In that last game, the duo combined to go 15 of 38 from the field and 0 for 7 from three.

The Bulls have the worst point differential of the Eastern Conference’s top six teams. In fact, eight teams in the East have a better point differential. Chicago would be fortunate to avoid the play-in round. 

Milwaukee is all but assured of a top four seed and home court advantage for the first round. But they still have an outside chance at finishing first (2.5 games out) so roll with them Tuesday. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games in Chicago.

Talk about a shocking performance. The Clippers beat Milwaukee 153-119 on Friday night. Now both teams elected to rest starters in that game. But that can’t take away from the fact that it was the most points scored EVER in a regular season game in Clippers’ history. 

The Clippers are going to be in the play-in tournament, probably as the 8-seed, which means they’ll only have to win once to make the playoffs. That means the Pelicans, currently 9th, will have to win two games in the play-tournament. It would take New Orleans winning all of its remaining games - and the Clippers losing all of theirs - for the teams to trade spaces.

The Pelicans have won the last five meetings vs. the Clippers, including all three this season. I understand that coupled with the fact NO is still looking to guarantee its spot in the play in tournament makes them seem like the more attractive side here. But I still like the Clippers.

New Orleans is just 16-22 on the road and was lucky to come from behind to beat the Lakers on Friday. They came back from 20+ down to beat the Lakers earlier in the week. 

The Clippers have scored at least 121 points in three straight games and I cannot see them being swept in the season series. Paul George is back. Lay the short number.

The Lakers desperately have to have this game. Five straight losses have them on the outside of the playoff picture. We tried with them Friday in what was a key showdown vs. New Orleans. LeBron James and Anthony Davis returned to the lineup, but it was not enough as the Lakers blew a fourth quarter lead. Time to try again on Sunday.

While the Lakers are just trying to get into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are trying to preserve their status as a top six team in the West and thus avoid the play-in tournament. A 136-130 loss to Minnesota on Friday, the team chasing them, didn’t help. Utah losing last night did help Denver, who can finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th. 

One more win will all but seal a top six spot for Denver. But LA is going to be more desperate here. I know the Lakers seem difficult to back right now - they’ve lost 15 of 19 - but James and Davis are both back now and that makes this a much better team. Getting points at home is a bonus!

This is a massive revenge game for the Lakers as well. They lost to Denver by 37 back on January 15th in what was their worst loss of the season.

Denver is 1-7 ATS this season after it scored 130 or more points in the last game and 4-10 ATS its last 14 games overall.

Two teams that could end up meeting in the play-in round face off on Saturday in a key Eastern Conference clash. Both Brooklyn and Atlanta are 40-37, part of a three-way tie with Charlotte for eighth place. All three teams want to finish 8th as it would mean they only need to win one game, rather than two, in the play-in round.

Atlanta, despite being the hotter team (four wins in a row) and at home, is the slight underdog tonight. That’s because Brooklyn still carries a lot of weight with the oddsmakers. I thought the Nets should have won at home over Milwaukee on Thursday. (They ended up losing in overtime, on some last second free throws, after blowing a seven-point lead with two minutes left in regulation). 

Brooklyn has been a better team on the road this season. Some of that has to do with Kyrie Irving just recently being cleared to play at home. But recently they went on the road and easily beat Miami. The Nets are 23-16 in road games in 2021-22.

Atlanta has scored 131 or more points in each of its last three games. That’s pretty impressive. But I don’t think they can keep that up and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an off-shooting night from the Hawks here. Trae Young did leave the last game with a groin injury, though he did return. Could there be any ill-effect tonight?

Before the current four-game win streak, Atlanta was just 1-12 ATS when coming off a SU win. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS the last six times it has been a road favorite. The Nets are the better team here.

This game carries importance for both teams, but more so for Philadelphia, who has lost three straight games and thus fallen behind the other three teams in the chase for the top spot in the East. Losing to Detroit Friday was inexcusable. 

Charlotte is guaranteed to be in the play-in round, but would like to finish eighth so that they’d only need to win one game rather than two. With eight wins in their last 10 games, the Hornets are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. I still have concerns with a team that is last in the East in scoring defense.

The Hornets give up 116.4 points per game on the road. I think they’ll struggle here to stop Joel Embiid and James Harden. Embiid carried the offense vs. the Pistons, but got no help. Harden shot 4 of 15 and had only 18 points. The bench contributed very little, just eight points in fact.

Harden will shoot better and, at home, the bench will play better this afternoon. Speaking of the start time, these early ones always seem to favor the home team. 

Just not a believer in Charlotte in this spot. Philadelphia will be hungrier.

So there’s been some movement with the line here as the statuses of LeBron James and Anthony Davis remain “questionable.” The Lakers lost again last night (fourth straight time) and are in danger of not even qualifying for the play-in round. 

It’s the Lakers, Pelicans and Spurs that are battling for the last two play-in spots. One will be left out. The Pelicans are two games up on the other two, so they are in good shape. The Lakers need this win more.

This past Sunday these teams played. New Orleans won 116-108. In that game, which LeBron played in, the Lakers were up 23 in the first half. That was in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 15-22 on the road though, so I have my doubts about them here, LeBron or no LeBron.

New Orleans has only been favored in 20 games all season and just six times on the road! 

Hopefully, James and/or Davis plays tonight. Even if they don’t, my money is on LA. 

In the NBA, taking a double digit favorite on the road is typically not all that wise. When the favorite is a team that is just a game over .500, laying the points in this situation seems very head-scratching.

Then you’ve got the matter of Oklahoma City having covered the spread seven straight times. 

The Thunder are short-handed, but that was the case when they took on Portland Monday and OKC won that game, in overtime, 134-131. They scored a season-high in points despite being without their top five scorers.

Atlanta just faced another short-handed team (Indiana) Monday, on the road, and won by only nine. I just don’t know how you can trust the Hawks to beat the oddsmakers’ projection in this one. 

The Hawks are just 12-25 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. The Thunder have the best ATS winning percentage in the entire NBA at 65.8%.  They are 46-24 ATS as underdogs. Grab the points.

San Antonio still has a shot, folks. A shot of making the play-in round as they are just one game back of the Lakers, who lost yesterday, for 10th place (the last spot). Having won three straight, the Spurs now have an excellent chance of making it a perfect 4-0 road trip as they take on the Rockets tonight.

Houston has won two in a row, both games in Portland, but has not posted three consecutive victories at any time this season, outside of a stunning seven-game win streak in late November/early December. In fact, this is just the second time in 2022 that they have won back to back games.

Before beating Portland two straight times, the Rockets had the worst record in the NBA. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by a combined 55 points. 

Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray had an “off” shooting night in the last game, but the team still won anyway. I certainly expect Murray to shoot better than 4 of 19 tonight and make a three. (He was 0 for 5 on threes Saturday). Houston gives up a league-worst 117.6 points per game.

This is a game that the Spurs simply MUST have, if they are to make the play-in round. I don’t think it will be close.

This is an important game that could determine who gets the home court advantage in a possible first round playoff series. Utah and Dallas are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference, both teams sporting 45-29 records. The Jazz won the first two meetings this season, but the Mavs took the last one. All three times the home team has won.

Both teams are coming off losses. Utah is actually coming off three straight losses. They have not scored more than 106 points in any of those games. It was a 107-101 loss in Charlotte on Friday. This is the Jazz’s fifth straight game on the road, all played in the last eight days.

While Utah was losing in Charlotte, Dallas suffered a critical loss in Minnesota, 116-95. Not only did that loss prevent the Mavs from overtaking the Jazz, but it moved them closer to 7th place, which would mean the play-in round. They are now only 2.5 games ahead of the Timberwolves.

The good news for Dallas is that they are 15-3 ATS this season following a game where they did not score 100 points. I can’t see them shooting as poorly tonight as they did on Friday when they made only 38 percent from the field, including 10 of 43 three-point shooting. Defense should improve tonight as well. The Mavs are giving up just 102.1 points per game at home, best in the league.

The Jazz have not fared well as underdogs, going just 3-7 ATS when getting points. That includes a 28-point loss in Boston earlier in the week. The offensive downturn coincides with the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic, who is set to miss his eighth straight game tonight. Lay the short number with the home team here.

This is a big game for both teams. New Orleans is tied with the Lakers for the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio is two games back and can cut that difference in half with a win tonight.

The Spurs are 2-0 on the current trip, including a 37-point win at Portland in their last games. Before that, they took advantage of Golden State not having Steph Curry and won 110-108. 

In that Portland game, the Spurs made 19 three-pointers, tying a season-high, and 13 of those came in the first half. I do not anticipate them being that prolific from long range here.

The last time these teams played, the Pelicans ran away with a 33-point victory, 124-91. That game took place last week. Not enough has changed in the last eight days to convince me the Spurs can make up the gap. 

New Orleans is coming off a 126-109 win over Chicago Thursday night. Over the last six games, they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. They are also 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 games as a favorite while San Antonio is on a 6-13 ATS run as a dog + 4-12 ATS run off an ATS win. Lay the points here.

In what is surely a sign that the Trail Blazers are at their nadir, tonight they are underdogs - at home - to the Rockets. Having won just two games after the All-Star Break and announcing Damian Lillard’s season is over, there’s little to celebrate in Portland right now. The team just lost by 37 here to San Antonio. But look for “pride” to kick in and them to beat Houston.

The Rockets have the worst record in the NBA and the worst point differential. I don’t believe they should ever be favored on the road. It’s happened only one other time all season. There have been only five games that Houston has been favored in, period. They just lost by 19 at Dallas and have only three wins since the Break.

The teams will also play in Portland tomorrow night. The Blazers have captured seven of the previous eight head to head encounters, including 125-110 at Houston in late January. 

Not only has Houston lost 19 of its last 22 games overall, they are 0-11 L11 road games. And they are favored tonight! I just don’t see why. This is the worst team in the NBA!

"It was a disappointing effort. It was a really embarrassing first half. Give up 81 points, they I think at that time had 21 fast-break points, 30 points in the paint, they had it everywhere. I don't know how many threes they made (it was 13). They had it going every which way. By way of that, it was pretty ugly. "I don't think we prepared for the battle that was going to happen. Our guys looked tired, man. They looked really tired to be honest with you."

Those were the comments of Blazers’ head coach Chauncey Billups after the loss to the Spurs. Again, look for his team to come out with some pride, at home, after suffering such an embarrassing loss. 

Memphis won’t have Ja Morant on Wednesday and that puts them at a disadvantage in this non-conference showdown versus Brooklyn, who will have Kyrie Irving in its lineup (not to mention Kevin Durant as well). 

The Nets have finally started to put it together, winning six of seven. The lone game they dropped in that stretch was by two points to Dallas in the second night of a back-to-back. In their last game, the Nets beat the Jazz 114-106 and that was short-handed. The team was led by Durant’s 37 points.

With the winning run, Brooklyn is only three games back of a top six spot in the East. Getting into the top six is the goal as it would allow them to avoid the play-in round.

Memphis is second out West, but not having Morant is huge for this contest. I know the team has won without him in the past. But now they’re facing a team that has two of the best players in the league. 

The Nets have been better on the road this season, averaging 115.5 points and going 22-15. A lot of that is due to Irving’s status. With the opposition missing its best player and the Nets surging, it’s appropriate to back the visitors here.

The Hawks currently hold what the Knicks want; that being the last spot for the NBA’s play-in round. Fortunately for Atlanta, they have a five-game lead over New York, even after losing two of three. That should tell you what kind of a struggle it’s been for the Knicks this season. I like Atlanta here … big. 

These teams developed a bit of a “rivalry” last year with Trae Young’s antics in Madison Square Garden. The Hawks ousted the Knicks from the playoffs and wound up going to the Eastern Conference Finals. As you can tell from looking at the current standings, there’s been some severe regression for both sides.

Pointspread wise, the Knicks have been doing better than the Hawks … lately. New York is 7-2 ATS its previous nine games, Atlanta is 1-8 ATS its L9. But the Knicks have failed to cover two straight and lost three of five, straight up. 

New York is looking for a season sweep here. They’ve beaten Atlanta three times this season, including on Christmas Day when Young was out. But I’m anticipating a much different result on Tuesday with Young in the lineup. 

I look at this matchup in rather simple terms. The Hawks are better than the Knicks and this is a really short number. While they haven’t been covering much of late, Atlanta has won four of its last six games straight up. The revenge angle should work in their favor tonight. I just can’t see them losing for a fourth straight time to a Knicks team that is 11 games under .500. 

Washington finally ended its losing streak, defeating the Lakers on Saturday by a score of 127-119. They had to erase a 16-point deficit to do so, but no one is complaining in the Nation’s capital. The Wizards are still 4.5 games back of the last “play-in” spot in the Eastern Conference and desperately need more wins.

Fortunately for them, they’ll be in Houston Monday night to face a Rockets team that is 17-54 on the year and already eliminated from playoff contention. That 17-54 SU record is the worst in the entire NBA. Houston has lost its last five games, four of them by at least 13 points.

The Wizards will take this game seriously as they actually lost to the Rockets earlier in the year, at home, by a score of 114-111. The Rockets have won only six times since that victory, which was back on January 5th.

Houston has only two wins in its last 20 games. All things considered, this is a very short number to go against them.

The Rockets have given up more than 120 points in six of the last seven games. That’s a problem when you only average 108.9 PPG like they do. Washington put up 127 on the Lakers with Porzingis leading the way with 27. Back the road favorite here.

These are two of the hotter teams in the league right now. Milwaukee comes in having taken eight of their previous nine games and has covered the spread in seven of them. Minnesota has been even more profitable with a 9-1 SU and ATS run. 

Wednesday night, the Bucks couldn’t miss as they shot 51.4 percent from three on their way to a 135-126 win over Sacramento. Offense has not been in short supply for the defending champs during this winning run of theirs as they have averaged 124.6 points per game this month, getting held under 110 just once.

Minnesota is probably not the team that can slow down the Bucks. While the Timberwolves’ defensive numbers are better at home, they’ve still given up an average of 113.4 points over their last five games. 

This is a revenge spot for Milwaukee as they lost at home to the T’wolves, back in October. The final score was 113-108. The Bucks were short-handed going into that game.

No such issues tonight as they look to go to 7-2 ATS their last nine games at Minnesota. Lay the short number.

I won with the Pacers, plus the points, Sunday night. They were getting double digits in Atlanta and “slid in” through the “back door,” meaning they outscored the Hawks by 10 in the fourth quarter to lose by just three points. Indiana is now 2-13 SU in games decided by three points or less this season.

Though I was happy to cash a ticket, it was not a great effort from the Pacers on Sunday, at least in the first half. They let Atlanta shoot 60% before halftime, 59.1% from three, and Trae Young scored 33 of his game-high 47 in the first half. Indiana was down by 19 at one point. Seven Hawks finished the game in double figures.

Now Indiana must contend with Memphis, who has been one of the better teams in the league this season. The Grizzlies have won their last three games and are tied for second in the West. 

Memphis has failed to cover the spread its last two times out, but continues to score lots of points. Over the last five games, the team is averaging 122.2 PPG. Dillon Brooks is now back in the lineup after missing 27 games.

The Grizzlies have won 21 of their last 28 road games and should not have much difficulty here defeating the injury-riddled Pacers, who play little defense. Three of Indiana’s last four games have seen them surrender at least 127 points. Memphis has covered nine straight Tuesday games.

Philadelphia was able to get by Orlando last night, though they needed overtime to do so. The Sixers won 116-114, obviously not covering the large spread, but all that matters to them is that they bounced back from the embarrassing home loss to Brooklyn from three nights prior.

The Sixers being in a back to back here has definitely created some value as it’s a really short number that they’re being asked to lay, at home no less. They are up against a Denver team that not only is 0-4 ATS its last four games, but was soundly beaten by the 76ers (103-89) back in November.

Since James Harden came over in the blockbuster trade, Philadelphia has lost only one time. They’ve scored 116 or more points in each of the six wins. 

The Nuggets have been giving up lots of points lately, an average of 118.8 over their last five games. They got torched for 127 by Toronto on Saturday and that was at home. 

I don’t think that the back to back matters too much for Philadelphia, even with last night’s game going to OT, as they’d been off for two days prior to that. The Sixers are 12-4 ATS off an ATS loss. 

This is a big number, considering Atlanta is only tied for ninth in the conference with a below .500 record. While they’ve been a bit better of late, going 6-4 the last 10 games, the Hawks haven’t beaten anyone by more than six points in over two weeks.

Atlanta did beat Indiana by 21 when they played last month. But the Pacers don’t get blown out all that often. They have 12 losses this year by three points or less. That’s the most in the league. They are being outscored by an average of just 2.3 points per game.

Last night was a win for the Pacers as they went to San Antonio and prevailed by a score of 119-108. The last time this team won two straight was mid-January. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances of ending that streak tonight. But I do believe Indiana will cover in this spot. They are 7-4 ATS in the second game of a back to back.

The Hawks have a game tomorrow night, so they may not be looking to go “all out.” Expect this to be a close game and take the points.

Denver hasn’t lost two straight games in over a month. They’ll look to keep that streak alive tonight when they play host to Toronto, who was in action last night. The Raptors won in Phoenix last night, thanks to 42 points from Gary Trent Jr. But it will be exceedingly difficult to match that level of performance in the second night of a back to back.

The Nuggets lost to Golden State Thursday, 113-102. It was just their third loss since Feb 6. Off the previous two, Denver bounced back to not just win, but cover as well. One of those spots was against Toronto, whom they defeated 110-109 as a 4.5-point road dog back on Feb 12.

Steph Curry got hot at the right time against the Nuggets in that last game. The Warriors closed on a 13-0 run, so the final score was a tad misleading. 

This is Toronto’s fourth straight game on the road, third in four nights and second in two nights. A bad spot. They are 4-9 ATS this season after playing three straight on the road.

Furthermore, the Raptors are 7-22 ATS their last 29 meetings with the Nuggets and 0-6 ATS their last six trips into Denver.

So there is a question whether or not LeBron James is going to suit up tonight. Regardless if he does or not, I’m on the Lakers. 

Wednesday may have been a new nadir for LA as they lost in overtime to the lowly Rockets. With or without James, the Lakers are going to come out motivated on Friday after being ripped in the media.

Facing the Wizards helps. They too are off a gutting loss, letting the Clippers score the game’s final 11 points on Wednesday, sending Washington to yet another defeat, their 20th in the last 32 games.

The Wizards are 5-16 ATS vs. the Western Conference and 0-6 vs. the Pacific Division. 

If LeBron plays, obviously I’m a lot more confident. Either way though, expect the Lakers to win and cover.

Minnesota is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Timberwolves have won five in a row, covering the spread each time, and averaged 130.6 points per game. They are winning by an average of almost 23 points during the win streak!

Now it helps to play the likes of Oklahoma City and Portland, the latter twice, but guess who the T’wolves see tonight? OKC again! It was 138-101 the last time these teams met and that was in Oklahoma City. Minnesota turned in both its highest scoring half (77 points) and quarter (45) of the season in that win. They shot 57% before halftime and for the game, made 22 of 47 three-point shots.

Oklahoma City is coming off a loss last night where it surrendered 142 points. So this game could get very ugly in a hurry. The Thunder have lost their last three games and allowed 124 or more points in five of the last seven.

The Timberwolves are 3-0 vs. the Thunder in 2021-22. The last two wins were by 30 and 37 points. Let’s not overthink this one. Minnesota has covered all eight home games this season when the total is 230 points or higher. They are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of -12.5 or higher.

There’s been a bit of a “cooling off” with the Grizzlies, as they are just 4-4 SU the last eight games overall. But after a bad loss, 123-112 at Houston, I expect them to start strong tonight at home vs. New Orleans.

No reason to panic in Memphis. Owing mostly to the Warriors’ recent struggles, the team has moved up into second place in the Western Conference. Looking back, the Grizzlies have won 25 of 33. They are still one of the best teams in the NBA.

The Grizz probably should have beaten the Rockets considering they were up 10 at halftime. But they finished the game an uncharacteristic 5 of 28 from three-point range.

Similarly, the opponent for Tuesday blew a double digit lead on Sunday and lost. New Orleans was more egregious, letting an 11-point advantage slip away in the final 3:22 of regulation and ending up going down in overtime, 138-130 at Denver. That snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak for the Pelicans.

The Grizzlies typically do very well off losses. Since Christmas, there’s been only one instance of them losing back to back games. Look for those threes to start falling here and the home team will cover the spread.

The Kings get to host the Knicks, who are in the second night of a back to back. Furthermore, since the Knicks won on Sunday (beat the Clippers 116-93), I think we’re getting a really good price on the home side. 

Sacramento is coming off a 2-3 road trip. It could have been better, but two of the losses were by five points or less. They lost 114-113 in Dallas on Saturday, blowing a 19-point lead. 

Before winning Sunday, the Knicks had lost seven straight and 10 of their last 11. They aren’t a good team either. This is the middle of a seven-game, 12-day trip that has Dallas, Memphis and Brooklyn still to come. I’d say the Knicks are about to fall out of playoff contention for good.

The Kings have revenge for a 20-point loss they suffered in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks shot 50 percent in that game, something they haven’t done since. 

New York has failed to cover 15 of the last 22 times it has been off an ATS win. Most of those games came with rest, something that isn’t the case here. Lay the points.

All of a sudden, Detroit has turned into a covering machine, winning its last seven in a row ATS. But let’s not sugarcoat the fact the Pistons are still a bad basketball team. They are thirty games below .500 and have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference.

During the 7-0 ATS run, the Pistons have won straight up a total of five times. They are coming off back to back wins here, first beating the Raptors in Toronto on Thursday night, 108-106, followed by a 111-106 home win over the Pacers on Friday. The team had the weekend off. 

You can look for the win streak to end Monday against Atlanta. First off, Detroit has not won three in a row at any point in the season. They are 1-2 ATS when coming off two straight wins and the one cover came as 12.5-point underdogs.

Atlanta has been playing better recently. They too have won five of their last seven and didn’t play over the weekend. The Hawks’ most recent wins came over the Bulls and Wizards. Trae Young has averaged 34.0 points and 9.5 assists over the last four games.

The last time the Pistons won three in a row was the 2018-19 season. The last time these teams met, the Hawks won by 18. John Collins is now back for them. The home team is due to play poorly.

The Suns are playing shorthanded, but even so this is too many points to pass up. The team with the best record in the NBA, the Suns have lost just three of their last 24 games. After beating Portland by 30 on Wednesday, they came from behind to beat the Knicks on Friday.

Milwaukee comes into this NBA Finals rematch on a three-game win streak. The last two wins, over Miami and Chicago, were both hard fought. Only one of the Bucks' last five games have been decided by more than six points. I bring this up, because they may not have enough left in the tank to run away with this one.

Brook Lopez is still out for the Bucks. As great as Giannis has been recently, that kind of production can’t continue forever. 

Not only have the Bucks failed to cash in seven of their last nine games against teams that have winning records, but they are just 13-21 ATS at home. Phoenix has an incredible road record of 23-5 SU.

As short-handed as they might be (no Paul or Booker), look for the Suns to compete here. They dominated Milwaukee (131-107) in the first meeting since last year’s NBA Finals. This is the most points they’ll get in any game all season.

I like the spot for Charlotte here. They just handed Cleveland a 119-98 defeat and have had two days off. Now the Hornets can turn their full attention to San Antonio, who just got beat at home by Sacramento.

That loss to Sacramento was the Spurs’ first home game following the annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” which spanned eight games and nearly three weeks. The Spurs went 4-4 on the trip. But then they came home and lost to the Kings. Now it's back on the road, to the East Coast no less. They are 13-20 in road games this season.

Charlotte beat San Antonio, at the Alamo, 131-115 back in December.

What makes this game so important to the Hornets is that they are just 1-9 their last 10 at home. Prior to that, they had a very good home record. I just can’t see San Antonio coming in here and winning. 

Denver had its season-best six-game win streak come to an end in shocking fashion Wednesday night. They lost to the lowly Thunder, at home no less, 119-107 as a 14.5-point favorite. Now they’ll host the only team lower than the Thunder in Western Conference standings, that being Houston. I don’t see the Nuggets making the same mistakes they did two nights ago.

Houston has not won a game since February 2nd. They’ve lost 11 straight and have a legit claim to be the worst team in the league. Seven of those 11 straight losses have come by double digits. 

Making matters worse tonight for the Rockets is that they could be without several key players. Dennis Schroeder has a sprained ankle, Eric Gordon missed the last game with a groin injury and Jae’Sean Tate is also dealing with an ankle. While they were still able to take Utah to overtime on Wednesday, I can’t see a potentially short-handed, bad team being competitive two straight times. Houston is 0-4 ATS off its previous four ATS victories.

The Nuggets are 2-0 against the Rockets so far this season. While the first game came down to the final possession, it was a 13-point win in Houston on New Year’s Day. I expect this to be the biggest margin of victory to date.

Denver is 4-0-1 ATS off its previous five ATS losses. So all signs point to a bounce back here. 

The Lakers are in serious trouble. Seven games below .500 and in 9th place in the Western Conference. All they can hope for at this point is making the play-in round, which means they’d probably need to win twice to get into the playoffs proper. 

One spot ahead of the Lakers are the Clippers, but the gap in the standings is 4.5 games. The reason the Clips are lower than expected is due to injuries. They’ve been playing without their two top superstars for awhile now. Kawhi Leonard hasn’t even suited up for a single game this season.

So who is going to take this battle of underachieving teams from the City of Angels? I like the Lakers. They should have beaten Dallas on Tuesday. It’s also time for a little payback. The Lakers are 0-3 vs. the Clippers this season, but those three losses have been by a total of eight points. 

The Clippers’ four-game win streak does include a 105-102 win over the Lakers. But the other three wins were all against Houston. So it’s a bit of a “phony” win streak. 

The Lakers led the Clippers going into the fourth quarter in that recent meeting. With their backs against the wall, look for LeBron James and company to “step up” here and deliver a big win.

Two of the Eastern Conference’s bottom teams square off to start the week. I believe this is a wonderful opportunity for Orlando to make it a rare two straight wins.

The Magic won on Friday, beating the Houston Rockets here at home, 119-111. Both Chuma Okeke and Wendell Carter Jr played well. Tonight, Okeke and Carter are set to be joined by former #1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, who is set to make his season debut.

As was the case Friday, Orlando is the slight favorite in this game. Indiana, though they won yesterday, is just 4-12 over its last 16 games and basically “disassembled” its roster at the trade deadline. There has been just one time since mid-December that the Pacers have won back to back games.

The fact that the Pacers are in the second game of a back to back while the Magic had the weekend off is a big edge to the home team. 

Orlando overcame a 17-point third quarter deficit to win in Indiana at the beginning of the month. They shouldn’t fall into that kind of hole tonight. Expect them to get the ‘W’ here.

Golden State’s second half of the season began with a convincing 132-95 win over Portland. Dallas blew a seven-point halftime lead in Utah and lost 114-109. That’s the setup for this Sunday night contest.

Yes, the Warriors had failed to cover six in a row going into the All Star Break. But they looked like the best team in the league Thursday, mostly because of Steph Curry, who had a season-high 14 assists to go along with 18 points.

These teams have met two times previous to this. The home team won both matchups. Curry struggled to make shots, but I’m banking on him having a big game here. Dallas didn’t have many answers defensively against Utah, allowing the Jazz to hit 54% for the game and 57% in the first half.

This is a low number on the Warriors at home. Too low.

That’s because Klay Thompson is questionable and Draymond Green is still out. But Curry should lead his team to a win and cover tonight. 

Big game on this afternoon’s NBA schedule with the Jazz taking on the Suns. The Suns are playing without Chris Paul and are off a loss. Paul being out hurts, but Phoenix is 19-2 over its last 21 games and has the best record in the league. They have not dropped consecutive games since December.

For those reasons, I’m siding with the Suns in this one. They are also at home on Sunday. Their home record is 26-6. 

The Suns are 2-0 vs. the Jazz this season. Both wins were in January. They won 115-109 here at home and 105-97 in Salt Lake City.

Utah needed to come from behind to defeat Dallas Friday night, 114-109. The Jazz did not cover the spread in the game. They trailed by seven at halftime. That was the largest halftime deficit they’ve overcome all season.

The fact that the Suns haven’t lost back to back games in over two months weighs heavily on this selection. So too does the fact they are basically a “pick ‘em” at home. You won’t get a better value on this team all season.