We played against the Lakers in their Opening Night loss. That was at Denver, Jokic and the defending champions were getting their rings. A home game against a Suns team expected to be without Beal is a different story. Phoenix is only 30-41 ATS last 71 after allowing 105 points or less. Lakers beat the Suns by 14 last meeting here. The home team won all four meetings by double-figures. Lebron and the Lakers get it done in front of the home fans. *Western Conf. GOM

The Pacers haven't won a season opener since 2020. That changes this evening. The Wizards beat the Pacers here in last year''s opener. This year, Washington has gone through a major rebuild and won't be ready to compete the entire way with Indiana in this one. Wizards only 34-45-3 ATS last 82 on the road. Pacers lost the opener against the Wizards but are still 36-14 SU the last 50 meetings and they won by 10 the last time they hosted the Wizards. I've got them taking advantage of the favorable matchup and winning this one by at least that many. *Eastern Conf GOM

The Nuggets will be raising their championship banner and getting their championship rings and will not let the Lakers come in and spoil the party. When handing out championship rings, teams are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last last ten years. Though they may lack some depth, the Nuggets starting five is very strong. The Lakers have a lot of new faces. They should be competitive this season but they won't be ready to compete with Jokic and the champions tonight. The Nuggets are 68-27 at home the past 2 years. They pull away down the stretch for a big win. *TNT Thunder

You know the setup. The Nuggets won Game 1 and the Heat came back to win Game 2. The Heat may have stolen homecourt advantage but the Nuggets are still heavily favored to win the series. Most shops have them in the -275 range to do so. That means that they're expected to win at least one game at Miami. No time like the present to make that happen either. The only other time that the Nuggets were tied in a series was Game 5 against the Suns. Denver won by 16 and only trailed for 14 seconds of that entire game. The Nuggets are 3-0 straight-up and ATS their last three when tied in a series and they're 12-7-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss as favorite. The Heat are only 7-13 ATS when playing with 2 day's rest. Lay the small number with the Nuggets in Game 3. *Playoff GOY

The Celtics have now done what only 14 teams previous to them have accomplished. That is to force a Game 6 after falling 0-3 in a playoff series. Now they seek to do what only three other teams have done after falling behind 0-3 - force a Game 7. (No team has ever come back to win the series after being down 0-3). 

Boston’s confidence has to be booming after the 110-97 win in Game 5. Basically, they led for double digits the entire game. Meanwhile, Miami’s confidence has to be waning. This was a Heat team that was really overachieving; they finished the regular season with a negative point differential and negative net efficiency. 

The Heat are 5-11 ATS this season following a double digit loss. Gabe Vincent (ankle) remains questionable for tonight and we know Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are already out. This team is running out of bodies and is really reliant on Jimmy Butler carrying the scoring load.

Boston, on the other hand, had four 20+ point scorers in Game 5. They’ve shot 51% as a team the last two games including 40% from three. It’ll be difficult to maintain those percentages, but there is no denying which of these two teams has the deeper roster. 

The thing about Miami is they actually shot well in Game 5 and still ended up with only 97 points. All the momentum in this series has shifted and I’m laying the short number with the better team. 10* 

The Lakers (barely) covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2, but my view is that even at home in a desperate situation, they should not be laying this many points to the top-seeded Nuggets.

Yes, LA did have the lead for most of Game 2 before succumbing late (but, again, still covering). However, they were largely dominated for most of Game 1 and did not deserve to get the cash in that game. 

I know Denver isn’t nearly the same team on the road as they are at home, but this is too many points considering their only three losses this postseason have been by a total of 18 points. 

LeBron James has been miserable from three in the playoffs (23.3%) including 0 for 10 in this series alone. The Lakers are not a good three-point shooting team, making it difficult to build/maintain the kind of lead they need to cover this number.

Also, Reaves and Hachimura are due for some regression. Unless Anthony Davis steps up in a major way, I don’t see how the Lakers win this game, let alone cover. 10* 

Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points. 

The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number. 

The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater. 

I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field. 

The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6.  The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10* 

For most of the 48 minutes in Game 1, Denver clearly looked like the better team. But the Nuggets did not cover the closing number, either pushing or failing to cover depending on your shop. I fully anticipate they will cover the spread here in Game 2.

Both teams shot nearly 55% from the floor in Game 1 and roughly 46% from three. Playing on the road, it is the Lakers that are more likely to experience offensive regression in Game 2. This is a team that shoots the three at only 34.5% for the year. Denver is shooting 51% for the year here at home.

The Nuggets are also typically much better at the defensive end at home. In Game 1, they gave up 72 points in the second half. This is a team that came into the WCF ranked #2 in the league, allowing just over 108 points/game on its home court. 

Not only do I not see Anthony Davis scoring another 40 for LA, Austin Reaves (23 points) and Rui Hachimura (17) won’t match their Game 1 scoring either.

The Lakers are 2-9 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 130 or more points. Denver is 41-7 SU at home, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

Going back to last Saturday, NBA home teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. The only two SU losses both came in this series, the last two games where Philadelphia won Game 5 in Boston and then the Celtics returned the favor at Philly in Game 6. 

I look for “order” to be restored in Game 7, however. What a brutal loss for the 76ers Thursday as they shot 36.1% overall from the field including 8 of 34 (23.5%) from three. I had the Under, so I was happy with the final score being 95-86. 

The Celtics being +21 from beyond the three-point line was huge in Game 6. Since Game 1, there hasn’t been a game in the series where they were outscored from three. 

76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers has blown three 3-1 series leads in his career. This would be “just” 3-2, but I have little confidence in Doc. He has lost NINE Game 7’s, by far the most of any coach in history. Home teams also win Game 7 at a very high percentage. 

The Celtics won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing 14 of his first 15 shot attempts. You’ve got to figure he’ll shoot much better at home Sunday. Boston is the better team. 10* 

The Knicks staved off elimination once, now let’s see if they can do it again Friday on the road. They obviously come into Miami as underdogs, but that’s okay considering the Heat’s somewhat lousy 22-37-2 ATS mark as favorites this season. I’m taking the points in Game 6 tonight.

It was just a three-point lead at halftime for the Knicks in Game 5 as they got off to a really slow start (just 14 pts in the 1Q). From there, they took control in the second half, going up by as many as 19 before Miami made a late push. The trio of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle once again carried the scoring load (88 combined points) with Brunson’s 38 leading the way. The Knicks also shot much better than normal from three (38.2%), at least by this series’ standard.

I don’t necessarily expect NY to shoot as well from three tonight. But I also don’t expect them to fall into an early hole like they did in the last game. Playing for their season, you know you’re getting their best effort for 48 minutes. I also have my doubts about Miami, who isn’t capable of scoring a ton without Jimmy Butler going off.

The Heat are only shooting 43% from the field in this series and 31% from three. I’m not exactly sure why this spread is larger than both Games 3 and 4 at home. 

Going back to the start of the series against Cleveland, the Knicks are allowing just 100.1 points/game. Given that points figure to be at a premium again tonight, I want to be on the dog. 8* 

The Suns need to win Game 6 to stay alive and I think they will, with room to spare, so I’m laying the points.

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have both been other-worldly in this series, combining to average 65 points/game. The thing is they need help. Last home game they got help from Landry Shamet, who scored 19 thanks to making five threes. Whether it’s Shamet or someone else on this Suns’ roster, expect someone to “lend a helping hand” at home tonight.

Denver is 40-7 SU at home, but they are sub-.500 on the road with the scoring differential going from +10.3 at home to -3.0 on the road. So that’s why there’s such a drastic change in the spread from the last game to this one. 

In the two previous home games in this series, Phoenix averaged 125 points on 53% shooting. Denver is simply not the same team defensively on the road as they are at home. 

At home and trailing in the series, the Suns are a perfect 3 for 3 ATS. 10*

Golden State’s season is on the line tonight after blowing a double digit lead on the road in Game 4. They led the Lakers by as many as 12 in the second half, but a second straight uncharacteristically poor performance at the offensive end doomed them. 

In the two games down in LA, the Warriors shot below 30% from three. Steph Curry was only 3 of 14 on 3PA in Game 4. Now back home, you’ve got to expect a better showing at the offensive end from Curry and his teammates. After all, they are 36-10 straight up and 30-16 ATS at the Chase Center in 2022-23. 

But much of the reason the Warriors are so much better at home than on the road is because of their defense. They are basically allowing 10 fewer points/game at home compared to the road. 

The Lakers are not an efficient team offensively and have shot worse than 30% from three in all but three playoff games. 

After back to back road losses in Sacramento in the first round, the Warriors responded with a 17-point win here at home. Up 3-1 in the first round vs. Memphis, the Lakers lost Game 5 (on the road) by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* 

The Knicks got strong performances out of Julius Randle (20 points), Jalen Brunson (32) and R.J. Barrett (24) in Game 4, but the rest of the team combined to score only 25 points and as a result, they are down 3-1 in this best of seven series.

But the good news is that Game 5 is at Madison Square Garden. Last time here, the Knicks won 111-105 and shot 40% from three. The other three games have seen dreadful three-point shooting from NY. My hope here is that we’ll see a shooting effort along the lines of Game 2.

I also don’t think the Knicks will be outrebounded the way they were in the two games at Miami. In the regular season, New York was the #2 rebounding team in the entire NBA. 

Defensively, the Knicks have little to worry about. They’ve given up an average of just 99.7 points/game this postseason, which is pretty remarkable in 2023. Miami hasn’t exactly shot the lights out in this series either, though Jimmy Butler has carried the load offensively. 

I’m not really a believer in this Heat team, which is an 8-seed and was on the verge of losing to Chicago in the play-in tournament. They had a negative point differential and net efficiency in the regular season. Them making a Conference Final (would be first 8-seed to do so since 1999) would be rather shocking to me. 10*

Phoenix has come back to tie this series up 2-2, but they have needed herculean efforts from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, plus a breakout effort from Landry Shamet in Game 4. 

Durant and Booker have combined for a ridiculous 273 points in this series with Booker shooting 66.7% from three and 34 of 43 overall the last two games. Shamet’s breakthrough in Game 4 came out of nowhere (he’d scored just 14 points total this postseason, previously!)

I just can’t see Durant and Booker continuing that pace, Booker specifically, and the Suns’ role players are unlikely to contribute much with the series moving back to Denver.

At home, the Nuggets are allowing just 108.5 points/game for the year, second best in the league. They are simply a much better team at home where they’ve gone 39-7 SU (+10.2 PPG) as opposed to 20-25 SU (-3.0 PPG) on the road.

Nikola Jokic (53 points in Game 4) won’t be suspended, so he’s a go. It’s also time for someone on the Nuggets other than Jokic or Jamal Murray to step up. Similar to Shamet for Phoenix in the last game, I expect someone will. Certainly, Denver will get more than 11 bench points tonight. Lay the points. 10*

The last two games of this series have both been blowouts, each team winning at home. The Warriors now look to bounce back in Game 4 and even the series at two games apiece. I like the defending champs plus the points.

It was a horrible shooting night for Golden State in Game 3 as they made only 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three. They were also -20 in FT attempts. Meanwhile, the Lakers shot 52.5% from three and were an uncharacteristic 48.4% from three.

I say “uncharacteristic” because six of the previous seven games saw LA shoot worse than 30% from three. 

Anthony Davis had 25 points last game, 11 of those coming from the charity stripe. Davis has yet to have back to back games this postseason with 20+ points. 

I know that Golden State has generally been terrible on the road this year, but they have won at least one road game in every series since Steve Kerr took over, including two in Sacramento last round. This is a team known for bouncing back from a bad loss. 10* 

Golden State tied this series up with a convincing 127-100 victory in Game 2, shooting 50% overall and from three. But now they’re on the road - where they simply have not been the same team in 2022-23. 

The Warriors are 13-32 straight up and 14-30-1 ATS on the road this season. However, they have won their last two road games, both at Sacramento. 

My big concern with the Lakers is that they simply do not shoot the three well enough to stay with Golden State.  In six of their eight playoff games thus far, LA has shot worse than 30 percent from behind the arc. 

Also, as I’m sure you’ve heard, the Warriors have won at least one road game in every playoff series under Steve Kerr. 

The Dubs flat out looked like the better team in Game 2 and I see no reason why we shouldn't take them as underdogs here in Game 3. 10*

I just can’t trust the Heat as favorites, especially with all the injuries. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are of course out for the season while, more importantly, Jimmy Butler remains questionable due to an ankle.

Even at full strength, Miami is terrible as a home favorite. They are 13-23-2 ATS this season as chalk in South Beach, not to mention 20-37-2 ATS as favorites of any kind. 

If Butler can’t go, that’s two of the Heat’s three 20+ point scorers out of the lineup. I just don’t know where else the production would come from. They only scored 105 without Butler in Game 2. 

The Knicks lost Game 1, but they didn’t have Julius Randle, their top scorer. He, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett combine to average 68.7 points per game and they are all now healthy.

Big edge in rebounding for the Knicks as well in the first two games (+25). This team is 26-18 SU/28-15-1 ATS on the road. 10* 

Golden State is only 48 hours removed from winning a Game 7 on the road while the Lakers have had two more days rest after finishing off Memphis with an emphatic 40-point win. 

But the Warriors are 21-4 straight up in Game 1’s under Steve Kerr including 19-2 at home (did lose Gm 1 at Sacramento in Rd 1) while LeBron James is just 4-14 SU in his career in road Game 1’s.

So I’m going to go ahead and lay the points in this one. Golden State is simply a different team at home - where they are 35-9 SU and 29-15 ATS this year. Defensively is where we see the most improvement home vs. road with the Warriors. They allow just 111.8 points per game at home compared to 121.8 pn the road.

In two of the three games at Memphis in the first round, the Lakers failed to score 100 points. This is a problem facing a Warriors team that scores an average of 119.2 points at home. 

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors are 66-37 ATS at home when the total is 220 or higher. 8*

The Knicks really “gave” Game 1 away in my view. They were leading by double digits after the first quarter and then up 55-50 going into halftime. But ice cold shooting from three-point land doomed them. They finished the game a woeful 7 of 34 (20.6%) from long range. Let’s also not forget they missed 8 of 20 free throw attempts.

So I’ll lay the points again in Game 2 … Miami was already without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Now Jimmy Butler is dealing with an ankle injury and that is obviously a major problem. Butler is clearly the Heat’s best player and carried them again with 25 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1. 

If Butler were to miss this game, I’d say the Heat have zero chance of winning.

Plus, NY could get Julius Randle back. Even if Randle doesn’t return, I expect Jalen Brunson to have a bounce back effort after he went 0 for 7 from three in Game 1. 

Miami is the ONLY playoff team that ended the regular season with a negative net efficiency rating. They also have a losing road record. After overperforming tremendously in the first round, at least at the offensive end, this is a team due for some serious regression - whether Butler can go or not. (Reports are that Butler’s ankle has swollen to the size of a baseball). 10*

Phoenix fell victim to some hot shooting from Denver, specifically from Jamal Murray, in Game 1 and that is why they came up short, 125-107. 

The good news for the Suns is that their two superstars - Kevin Durant and Devin Booker - both played well in Game 1. That duo combined for 56 points. Now they just need their teammates to “step it up.” 

The Nuggets were 16 of 37 from three and had 17 more FG attempts than the Suns in Game 1. Murray was 6 of 10 himself from three on his way to 34 points. I don’t see him matching that production in Game 2. 

Despite being the 4-seed, Phoenix is the betting favorite in this series and to win the Western Conference. I think they’re a great value as an underdog tonight.

The Suns only attempted five threes in the 1H Saturday night, but then started launching in the 2H. They only made seven threes for the game, a number they should easily exceed tonight and thus I like them to cover the spread. 10* 

I like the Knicks here in Game 1 of their second round series against the Heat.

Miami clearly overachieved in Round 1 vs. Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a couple games vs. the Bucks, but more notably the Heat averaged 124 points/game in the series, a double digit increase over what they averaged in the regular season. I expect some offensive regression from the visitors on Sunday.

New York just held Cleveland to an average of 94.2 points/game in the first round series. That’s a tremendous defensive effort. 

The Knicks have covered 24 of their last 35 games overall. The Heat are still only 19-25 SU and 18-26 ATS on the road this season.

Just don’t think this spread is large enough. Miami comes in short-handed as both Herro and Oladipo have been lost for the season. The Knicks are at full strength. 10* 

Atlanta shocked us all by winning Game 5 in Boston, 119-117 as 13-point underdogs. Over the final nine minutes, the Hawks outscored the Celtics 30-15 with Trae Young putting the exclamation point on things with a three-point bomb to win it with just two seconds remaining.

Atlanta made 19 threes in the game, none bigger than Young’s obviously, and making the result all the more shocking is that the Hawks were without Dejounte Murray (suspended).

Murray returns tonight as the series returns to Atlanta. But it’s difficult to ignore the fact the Celtics dominated Game 5 for three quarters, outscoring the Hawks 60-38 in the paint and 24-8 in transition.

I see Boston ending the series tonight and will lay the points. The Celtics are clearly the better team and have been ahead most of the series.

The Hawks are awful defensively (119.3 points/game allowed in this series) and won’t shoot 46% again from three. 10* 

It’s do or die in Game 4 for the Timberwolves, who are facing elimination at home. Denver has taken the first three games of this best of seven series, 109-80, 122-113 and 120-111. The Nuggets are shooting 52.1% for the series after going 57.1% in Game 3, which included 13 of 32 from three.

Minnesota has outscored Denver in just one of the 12 quarters in this series. 

But I expect a fired up effort by the home team in Game 4 with the season on the line. Denver isn’t likely to shoot as well as it did in the last game. It’s absolutely worth noting that the Nuggets have only prevailed by single digits each of the last two games despite shooting over 55% from the field.

Denver isn’t a great road team either. For the season, they have a losing record away from home, getting outscored by almost three points per game.

Minnesota is 9-2 ATS this season following three straight losses. They are 8-3 straight up in those games as well. 10*

Ja Morant remains questionable for Game 3, but regardless if the Memphis’ star plays or not, I’m rolling with the Lakers.

LA took Game 1 128-112, thanks to four different players scoring 20 or more points. Predictably, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura cooled off in Game 2 and the Grizzlies, at home, were able to win without Ja, 103-93 as slight underdogs. 

But now the Grizz are on the road where they’ve gone just 14-26-2 ATS this season and they may be without their best player yet again.

Outside of LeBron James and Hachimura, the rest of the Lakers shot just 24.2% in Game 2. That number will go up by a lot here in Game 3. 

Memphis is 0-5 ATS the last five games off a SU win and 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games after an ATS win.  10* 

Not like this is some big revelation, but the Cavaliers have a very young roster with little playoff experience. This will be the first road playoff game for most and I see the team struggling tonight at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 against the Knicks.

Cleveland simply isn’t the same team away that they were at home. On the road this season, they are 17-21 straight up. Also, they are just 4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS in games where they are priced as an underdog.

Give the Cavs credit for a good season, but they benefited from a fortunate 7-0 SU record in overtime games and really dominated the lesser teams on the schedule (30-5 SU vs. sub-.500 teams). Against teams that have a winning record, the Cavs are just 22-27 SU this year.

The fact that the Knicks were able to escape Cleveland with a 1-1 split is actually encouraging when you consider they shot below 40% in the two games combined, including 15 of 58 from three. Back home, I expect far better offensive numbers tonight. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season following a game in which they scored 100 points or less. They scored 90 in Game 2. 

The Knicks are still 4-2 SU vs. Cleveland this year and I think they are really being undervalued in this spot. Look for a strong start by the home team tonight as they average more than 60 points per game in the 1H at home. That strong start should carry them to a Game 3 victory. 10* 

The Warriors are down 0-2 in a series for the first time under Steve Kerr and won’t have Draymond Green (suspended) for Game 3. 

But the good news for Warriors’ fans is that home teams down 0-2 in a series are 50-26 SU in Game 3. I wouldn’t be concerned about laying the points as the SU winner has also covered the spread in every playoff game this season and 44 straight times going back to last season. 

Plus Golden State is a much different team at home than on the road (where they are a woeful 12-30 ATS). They are 33-8 SU and 28-13 ATS at the Chase Center.

Over the course of the first two games, the Warriors outshot the Kings - both overall and from three-point land. 

I worry about this young Kings’ team in its first playoff road game. Also, even after dropping Game 2, the Warriors are still 22-14 ATS off a playoff loss. 10*

I will role with Phoenix in Game 1 as this is a completely different team when Kevin Durant plays (8-0 SU, outscoring opponents by 11.6 per 100 possessions)

When Durant plays with Devin Booker, the Suns have a +18.4 net rating and average 124.7 points per 100 possessions. They are a deserved favorite to come out of the Western Conference. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers don’t have Paul George for this series. They do have Kawhi Leonard, but I don’t think that’s enough to stay with the high-powered Suns, at least here in Game 1. 

In the regular season finale, when the Clippers needed a win to clinch the 5-seed, they could only beat Phoenix by five. And that was with the Suns sitting seven players, four of them being Durant, Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. 

The Clippers have underachieved all year and I don’t see that changing now. 10*

The Lakers earned the 7-seed by beating Minnesota in the Play-in Round back on Tuesday. But I felt LeBron and company were a little lucky to escape with a victory in that one. Not only did they need overtime to get the ‘W’ but they trailed by as many as 15 points in that game. The T’wolves scored just 16 points from the start of the fourth quarter through OT. 

Memphis, at home, is not going to wither like that. The Grizzlies finished the regular season with the best point differential in the Western Conference and are a much better team at home - where they’ve gone 35-6 SU on the year. They have the best point differential at home in the league, outscoring visiting teams by 10.6 per game. 

The Grizz also have the league’s second best defensive rating. 

LeBron is a somewhat shocking 3-14 SU on the road in Game 1’s in his career. 

Jaren Jackson Jr will need to stay out of foul trouble and Ja Morant will need to hit his threes, but I believe the Lakers are overvalued coming into this best of seven series. Lay the points. 10* 

Cleveland is roughly a 2/1 favorite to advance to the second round, but I think the Cavaliers may have more trouble with the Knicks than anticipated. 

The Cavs’ 51-31 SU record was the franchise’s best in a non-LeBron James season in 30 years. But they really benefited from a 7-0 record in overtime games and their net efficiency is a little misleading due to the fact they typically blew out the bad teams. Against opponents with a .500 or better record, the Cavs have been a losing straight up proposition this season.

The Knicks also had a breakout campaign in 2022-23, which includes a 3-1 SU/ATS record vs. Cleveland. 

Julius Randle is a question mark for Game 1 but so is Cleveland’s Isaac Okoro. Monitor their statuses, but regardless I’m taking NY plus the points for Game 1. 

While starters are called upon more come playoff time, it should be pointed out the Knicks’ bench really dominated their Cavaliers’ counterparts in the four regular season meetings. The Knicks also enjoyed a big edge in offensive rebounding in those games. 10*

The Heat didn’t have a great regular season by any means, but I trust them far more than the defensively inept Hawks this time of year. Miami closed on a 4-1 SU/ATS run to earn home court advantage for this play-in matchup, which will determine the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. 

I have to acknowledge the fact the Heat were not a good team to bet on in the regular season, especially when favored. But neither was Atlanta, who comes in at 35-45 ATS overall and 17-24 ATS on the road. 

The Hawks allow 118.1 points per game, tied for fifth most in the league. Only Detroit, Indiana, Houston and San Antonio allowed more. This is going to be a problem tonight. 

In three games vs the Heat this year, Atlanta allowed 130, 117 and 113 points. They’ve lost 8 of 9 here in Miami and are only 3-6 ATAS in those games.

Expect Jimmy Butler to be the “X-factor” here. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in March, plus he always seems to step his game up in the playoffs. As a team, the Heat saw their offensive efficiency jump tremendously down the stretch and they’ve averaged 121.4 points/game since April 1. Lay it here. 10* 

This is one of the more meaningful games on the NBA slate Sunday. We know both New Orleans and Minnesota will be in the postseason, but it’s just a matter of seeding at this point. New Orleans can finish anywhere between 5th and 9th, which is a huge range of outcomes, while Minnesota will be either 8th or 9th.

Finishing 8th instead of 9th has its advantages as that would be the T’wolves would need to win just once, rather than twice, in the play-in tournament. 

New Orleans will also be motivated, especially by the prospect of avoiding the play-in altogether. But the Pelicans are just 15-25 SU on the road and I just don’t trust them as a small underdog in this spot. Earlier this season, these teams split a pair of games in New Orleans. Minnesota won the more recent game 111-102 after losing the first meeting by just a single point.

Yes, the Timberwolves played yesterday. But no starter exceeded 30 minutes and they put up a season-high 151 points on lowly San Antonio. 

New Orleans has also been pretty bad against teams with winning records. They are just 15-28 SU and 15-27-1 ATS.  Expect Minnesota, at home, to step up in the biggest game of the year.  10*

I cashed with the Clippers earlier in the week as they beat the Lakers 125-118, a game which the Clips actually closed as a 1-point underdog (after opening -3.5) due to LeBron James and Anthony Davis both deciding to suit up for the other side. 

The Clippers still need wins, however. We now know that they’ll be in the playoffs, but it remains unclear if they’ll be a top six seed or forced to be in the play-in tournament. By winning these last two games (they close Sunday @ Phoenix), they’d guarantee themselves a top six spot (can finish as high as fifth). 

Clearly, the Clippers should have no problem winning at home Saturday against an unmotivated Portland team that has lost 14 of its last 16 games. The Blazers have been surprisingly competitive on their current road trip, but four of their last seven losses overall have been by 24 or more points.

The Clips won 117-102 at Portland last month when the Blazers were far healthier. As of press time, the injury list for Portland contains 14 names, Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons among them. 

John Butler, Jeenathan Williams, Drew Eubanks, Skylar Mays and Trendon Watford was Portland’s starting five on Thursday. "These guys don't even know each other, to be honest with you," said coach Chauncey Billups. Sounds bad. 10* 

Milwaukee has already clinched the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference, so their work is done for the regular season. Memphis still needs one more win to clinch the 2-seed in the Western Conference, so I’ll bet accordingly here as the Bucks figure to rest most, if not all, of their key players.

Despite resting some key players, including Ja Morant, the Grizzlies took New Orleans to overtime the other night, eventually losing 138-131. Jaren Jackson had 40 points. Morant, Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman are NOT on the injury list for tonight, so expect the Grizz to be at closer to full strength.

Back in December, Memphis destroyed Milwaukee 142-101. 

When they are an underdog, the Bucks are 4-11 SU, 4-10-1 ATS this season. They’ve lost those games by an average of more than 10 points.

This boils down to simple motivation. Memphis wants to win. Milwaukee doesn’t care. Yes, the line is inflated, but that shouldn’t matter with the lineup the Bucks are likely to trot out tonight. 8*

Portland comes in at 33-46 on the year while San Antonio (20-59) is already guaranteed a bottom three record in the league. So the teams are just playing for pride in what is seemingly an “unattractive” matchup on Thursday’s NBA slate. Note this game is not being played in San Antonio, but rather in Austin at the Moody Center, which is the home of the Texas Longhorns.

However, despite the lack of stakes and true home court advantage, the Spurs are the play here. Portland comes into this game with one of the more absurd injury reports you’ll ever see. Damian Lillard has already been shut down for the season. Three other starters (Grant, Nurkic, Simons) all missed Tuesday’s loss to the Grizzlies. Shaedon Sharpe, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of the last eight games, is listed as questionable for tonight.

San Antonio also has a lengthy injury list. But I still see them winning this game with room to spare. Going back to March 10th, they actually have double the number of wins (4) compared to the Blazers (2). 

The Spurs just played three of the top four teams in the West, all on the road, so those results really have no bearing on my read here. (It should be noted they did win at Sacramento as 16-point underdogs though). 

This will be just the third time all year that the Spurs come in as the favorite. They are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two instances, winning those games by an average of 15 points/game. 10* 

This would appear to be a tremendous spot to hammer the Clippers, who have been off for three days while the Lakers are coming off an overtime win last night. While not a true road game for the Lakers, they did just play four road games in the last six days and may have little in the tank here.

With a 1:43 left to go in regulation last night, the Lakers appeared poised to be well on their way to a fourth straight win. They were up 10, but shockingly fell apart down the stretch against a Jazz team that was without three starters. Eventually, the Lakers got it done, winning 135-133 thanks to LeBron James. But those extra five minutes of action were totally needless and could end up costing them big time tonight.

Furthermore, you’ve got to consider that the Clippers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 against the spread in the previous 10 meetings with the Lakers.

Off the three-day break, the Clippers should come out angry as they’ve lost two straight games. They are now tied with the Lakers for the coveted sixth seed in the Western Conference. Obviously, both teams want to finish in the top six so that they don’t have to do the play-in tournament. 

The Clippers are 4-1 SU/ATS playing with three or more days rest this season. I can’t believe this spread is so low, considering how advantageous the situation seems to be for the “home team.” Lay it. 10* 

On a four-game win streak, Phoenix seems to have solidified itself as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are fully healthy now with Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton back in the lineup. Sunday they head to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in desperate need of a win.

OKC is still holding onto that last spot for the play-in tournament, but it’s been a poor stretch with the team just 2-4 SU/0-5-1 ATS over its last six games. Even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returning Friday, they suffered a head-scratching 121-117 defeat at Indiana as 5.5-point favorites.

Going just 1-2 SU against the three worst teams in the Eastern Conference (Charlotte, Detroit, Indiana) isn’t a great sign, but I like the Thunder to bounce back here. They’ve got more to play for and are now back in their more comfortable role of underdog (31-19 ATS when taking points this season). 

Phoenix is just 16-23 SU on the road. They lost their only previous visit of the season to OKC, just last month, although it should be pointed out they were playing shorthanded at the time. 

Keep in mind that the Thunder didn’t have SGA in the two games prior to losing to Indiana. Take the points here. 10*

This is a likely first round playoff series as the 4th place Cavs (48-29) take on the 5th place Knicks (44-33). New York has won two of the three prior meetings, but all of those were at least two months ago. 

Cleveland has been an excellent home team all season (30-8 SU) not to mention they own the league’s second best overall point differential this season (trailing only Boston). They are #1 in defensive efficiency as well. It would be hard to argue the Cavs aren’t the favorite to win a first round series, against the Knicks or anyone outside the current top three in the East. 

The Knicks are just 5-6 SU/ATS over their previous 11 games, though they have won the last two, beating Houston and Miami. But both of those victories came at home. They’ve lost two in a row on the road, falling at Miami and Orlando.

The Cavs have already clinched a playoff berth and would lock up a top four seed with a win tonight. The Knicks would clinch a playoff spot with a win here, but unfortunately for them, they’ll be without Julius Randle. That is a significant loss as Randle is averaging 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game

Cleveland may be without some key pieces as well (Allen, Okoro), but being at home and wanting to wash away the bad taste of Wednesday’s loss in Atlanta should have them properly motivated in this one. The Cavs are 10-4-1 ATS L15 off a SU loss. 10* 

Barring an unforeseen setback, Kevin Durant is set to make his return to the Suns lineup on Wednesday. The team has gone 4-6 SU with Durant out of the lineup, but things have been trending up with two straight wins. I was on the Suns (-6.5) Monday as they beat the Jazz 117-103 on the road. Deandre Ayton returned to the lineup for that game and scored 14 points. So this team is finally at full strength.

Phoenix is 4th in the West right now with a 40-35 record. Lurking not far behind in 6th is Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 39-37 following four straight wins, all of those coming by six points or less. 

Karl-Anthony Towns sat out the T’wolves’ 119-115 win at Sacramento Monday due to injury management. But even with his impending return for this game, I don’t like the spot for the visitors. It will be their third road game in four nights and some of these recent victories, such as the one at Golden State Sunday were a little fortunate. 

Minnesota still has a negative scoring differential this year. That’s a sign that they are unlikely to hold onto a top six spot. Four teams below them in the standings have better YTD point differentials. 

Having Durant, Ayton, Devin Booker and Chris Paul all in the starting lineup makes Phoenix one of the top teams in the league. Though this number has already been steamed up, I like the Suns minus the points. They’ve averaged 120 points over the last five games and should have their way with a Minnesota defense that is allowing 121.7 points over its last six games. 10*

The Suns snapped a seven-game ATS losing streak their last time out, beating the Philadelphia 76ers 125-105 as a 2.5-point favorite. It was also just the second SU win for Phoenix over an eight-game stretch. Having been playing without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant, the team is currently 4th in the West. But they’ve got six teams behind them within 2.5 games.

The good news is Ayton is expected to take the floor tonight for the Suns as they visit a Jazz team that is even less healthy. Utah’s three leading scorers - Markkanen, Clarkson and Sexton - all missed Saturday when the team lost for the third straight time, 121-113 to Sacramento as 9.5-point underdogs.

The Jazz have fallen back into 12th place in the conference, meaning they’d be out of the playoffs. You have to remember that back at the start of the season, very little was expected from this team. They had one of the lowest season win totals coming into 2022-23. 

Utah has definitely overachieved, but shorthanded, they can’t match up with Phoenix here. Devin Booker went for 29 against Philly while Bismack Biyombo had 17 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks. 

Before losing at Sacramento, the Jazz lost back to back home games - one to Portland (Blazers’ only win in forever) and one to Milwaukee (gave up 144 points). 8* 

Denver returns home for a huge showdown with Milwaukee Saturday night. These are the top teams in each conference, Milwaukee is 52-30 and has a 2.5-game edge in the East while Denver 49-24 with a three-game edge in the West.

The Nuggets have had two days off. They finished their road trip 3-2 SU/ATS after winning at Brooklyn and Washington. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is in the second night of a back to back after destroying Utah last night on the road. 

You can throw out the 107-99 win Milwaukee had against Denver back in January. The Nuggets rested most of their key guys in that game. 

Denver is 30-6 SU at home and outscoring teams here by about 10.5 PPG. 

I know it’s scary to fade a Bucks team that is 24-3 SU its last 27 games and 9-1 SU/9-0-1 ATS in the second night of a back to back. But playing at altitude without rest is a tough proposition, even if starters were able to rest in the 4Q last night. 10*

Phoenix is struggling mightily right now as over the last six games they are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS. They are without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant heading into Sacramento Friday night.

A big problem for the Suns right now is free throw disparity. They simply are not getting to the line. The last time they attempted more FTs than their opponent was 2/26.

This six-game ATS slide began with a 128-119 home loss to Sacramento (as four-point favorites). Ayton had 22 points and 12 rebounds in that game. 

The Kings are looking to bounce back from back to back losses to Utah and Boston. Prior to those losses, the team had won seven of eight. They gave up 132 to the Celtics, but are 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 130+ in the previous game. 

This is a key game in the Western Conference playoff picture. I just think it sets up well for the Kings, who are at home and clearly healthier than the Suns right now. 10*

Both Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant have been ruled out here for Portland, but Utah may be without some key pieces as well with Lori Markkanen having missed the last game and Jordan Clarkson still banged up. So I’m willing to take the Blazers plus the points in what is essentially a must win for them.

Portland comes into tonight trailing Utah by four games in the race for the last play-in spot. The Blazers have lost six in a row, failing to cover the last four, to fall back in the playoff chase. Meanwhile, the Jazz are trending in the other direction with six straight covers and winning four of their last five straight up.

But I still don’t see that much of a difference between these two Northwest Division clubs. Utah has been great as a dog this season, but they are only 12-19 ATS when favored. Having the seventh worst defensive rating in the league is also not ideal when the Jazz are laying points.

The Blazers have won the previous two meetings and have shot 47% or better against the Jazz all three times they’ve faced them in 2022-23. The one loss came by only five points. Damian Lillard scored 60 the last time they played.

With Milwaukee coming to town Friday, Utah may be looking past Portland. I just think the Jazz are due to “lay an egg” this evening. The only two times since the All Star Break where Utah has been asked to lay more than a point both came against San Antonio and they lost one of those games. Take the points. 10* 

This is a spot where the Pelicans should absolutely roll. San Antonio is the worst team in the league and winning is not in their best interest at this point. The Spurs did win Sunday, 126-118 at home against Atlanta. However, I thought that was a phony result as they not only erased a 24-point deficit, but also were fortunate to go 14 of 28 from three while the Hawks were just 5 of 22. 

The Spurs main focus at this point should be to lose as many games as possible and thus better their chances in the Draft Lottery. They have the worst point differential in the league and are being outscored by 13 points/game on the road.

New Orleans needs this game after only managing a split with another lowly team, Houston. The Pelicans are currently 12th in the Western Conference, but just one game back of the final play-in spot. Having a positive YTD point differential tells me this team is better than its 34-37 SU record.

The Pelicans have already beaten the Spurs three times this season, putting up 129, 117 and 126 points. They are 22-13 SU at home. 

The Spurs have covered only 5 of 23 road games with a total of 230 or higher. 10*

Utah has now covered five in a row, though they had to come back from down 19 on Saturday to stun Boston 118-117 (as 4.5 point pups) here at home. Nevertheless, oddsmakers continue to not give this Jazz team the respect it deserves considering a phenomenal 26-10 ATS mark as an underdog, which is best in the league. 

Speaking of a team that doesn’t get enough respect, Sacramento is tied for 2nd in the West (with Memphis) at 43-27 SU. The Kings are well-positioned to snap the longest active playoff drought in the four major North American sports. They last made the playoffs in the 2005-2006 season. 

But while the Kings come into Monday on a hot 6-1 SU/ATS run, this is not a great spot for them as it will be their fourth road game in the last six days. They’ve won each of the previous three, but two of those were by five points or less. 

Speaking of close games, these teams have already met twice this year and while the Kings are 2-0 straight up against the Jazz, those two wins were by a total of three points. Both were decided in the closing seconds. 

Sacramento shot almost 56% from the floor against Washington on Saturday, which included 22 of 37 from three. Don’t expect them to repeat those numbers here. This is too many points to lay to a competent team at the end of a road trip. 10*

The Bulls have righted the ship a bit with three wins in the last four games. They are 3-1 ATS in that same stretch. Previously, they’d really struggled ATS, covering just 2 of 12 games.

Chicago comes into Saturday in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. That’s obviously the last play-in spot. But it’s a tight lead with Indiana only one-half game back. The Bulls really need this one.

Miami is 7th in the East and barring some late collapse will make the playoffs, or at least the play-in round. But what I find interesting is that Chicago has the better YTD point differential of these two teams.

The Heat have been real money-burners when favored this season, going 15-32 ATS. They are just 4-15 ATS their last 19 games overall.

Bottom line is I don’t think the Heat should be favored here. Take the points. 10*

I went against the Suns last night and that was a wise decision as they got blown out of the water in Golden State, losing 123-112. Phoenix found itself down 43-21 at the end of the first quarter, so it was pretty much over early. But credit them for keeping things respectable over the final three quarters.

Tonight it’s back home for the Suns against the hottest team in the league, that being the Bucks. Since everyone just saw the Suns get blown out on national TV, my assumption is that the Bucks will take money in this matchup. 

It’s also the second night of a back to back, the third game in four nights and Kevin Durant is still injured. But be aware that this Phoenix team is much better at home (22-11) than they are on the road (15-20). 

But Milwaukee is also in the second night of a back to back and may also be shorthanded. Khris Middleton is likely to be rested and Brook Lopez could be suspended after a late ejection in last night’s 133-124 win at Sacramento.

The Bucks shot 58% from the floor last night and got 46 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Don’t look for those kind of numbers here. This is a great value on Phoenix getting points at home. 10* 

I really like the Warriors here. They are 0-3 vs. the Suns so far in 2022-23, but a big reason for that - Mikal Bridges - is now gone, off to the Nets. The kicker is that Kevin Durant, for whom Bridges was part of the package to obtain, is sidelined by injury.

This will be the third game in a row Golden State faces a team minus its superstar. It didn’t matter when they lost by 21 at Memphis (no Ja Morant) last week, but then the Warriors came back and beat Milwaukee (no Giannis) 125-116 in overtime Saturday night.

As was reinforced the last two games, the Warriors are a totally different team at home than they are away. The win over Milwaukee improved their home record to 28-7 straight up. They are just 7-26 SU on the road (9-24 ATS). 

The Suns had a 4-0 SU/ATS win streak snapped last time out, falling 128-119 to Sacramento. 

Golden State is 24-11 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of nearly eight points per game. Steph Curry, who went for 36 pts Sat night, had a 50-point game earlier in the year against Phoenix and that was while being guarded by Bridges.  Lay the points. 10*

Toronto lost in this building Wednesday night, 108-100 to the Clippers. I think they’ll have better success tonight against the LeBron-less Lakers.

Without LeBron, the Lakers have been better than expected as they’ve now won two in a row and six of eight overall. Most of the credit goes to Anthony Davis, who had 30 points and 22 rebounds against Memphis the other night. But the Grizzlies were without several key players as well, Ja Morant among them. 

When these teams met early in the season, LA didn’t have James or Davis. The Raptors destroyed them 126-113 and were up 70-47 at the half.

This game is undoubtedly important to both sides as they try and make a playoff push. But I have the Raptors rated as the better team, even if James was in there for the Lakers.

Should be a bounce back night at the offensive end for Toronto after shooting 38.5% vs. the Clippers. 10*

No Ja Morant for Memphis and no LeBron James for the Lakers. Who’s more likely to step up without their best player on Tuesday? The Lakers still have Anthony Davis, but I believe the Grizzlies remain the better team and thus am taking the points in this one.

Memphis comes in having lost its last two games, both of which came on the road. They were blown out in Denver with Morant (113-97) then remained competitive against the Clippers without him (135-129). 

The Grizzlies are still second in the West, seven games behind the Nuggets but only one-half game ahead of Sacramento. So they can’t afford to drop another one. Keep in mind they dropped 51 points in the 3Q vs. the Clippers on Sunday and were up by as many as 16 points in that game.

The Lakers just beat Golden State, as a 5-point dog Saturday, to make it five wins in the last seven games. But I’d still rate them as the third worst team in the West, especially without James in the lineup. 

I just think this is a great value on the better team Tuesday night. 10*

Denver has won seven of eight (also 7-1 ATS) and just avenged the one SU loss during that stretch by routing Memphis (113-97) on Friday. But now is probably a good time to fade them as they’re laying a pretty big number to a Toronto team that has won six of eight games.

The Raptors were also able to avenge a recent loss their last time out. In their case, they were playing with immediate revenge after losing to Washington 119-108 just two days prior. The second time around, also in DC, it was 116-109 with the game going to OT. 

What was most impressive was that Washington shot 58% from three and the Raptors still won.

The Raptors’ road record (12-20 SU) isn’t great, but overall this is a team that is better than its record, having outscored opponents over the course of the season.

The Nuggets are just 7-11 ATS this season when coming off three consecutive wins. 10*

There’s a lot of hand wringing over the Clippers right now, deservedly so, as a team this talented should never really lose five in a row. But here we are and the Clips are just 33-33 on the year, leaving them 8th in the Western Conference standings. This is a team that came into the season as the odds on favorite to win the NBA Title. 

Bookending the five-game losing streak are a pair of one-point losses to the Kings. One of them was the stunning 176-175 final that went to double OT.  Two nights ago, they lost 128-127 in Sacramento.

There was another OT loss in the mix (at Denver on 2/26). So it’s not like LA is getting beaten badly. They probably should have won most of these games.

Memphis certainly didn’t deserve to win Friday when it visited Denver. The Grizzlies lost 113-97 as a 5.5-point dog. That was with Ja Morant, who is now suspended for two games. 

In addition to no Morant, the Grizzlies are also without Brandon Clarke (out for season with Achilles injury) and Dillon Brooks (also suspended). This is a get right game for the Clippers. 10*

The NBA starts to get even more national TV time this time of year and we’ve got what looks to be a great matchup in the Western Conference early Sunday afternoon as Dallas hosts Phoenix.

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Suns recently went out and got Kevin Durant. The Mavs got Durant’s former Brooklyn teammate Kyrie Irving.

The Suns have won in blowout fashion each of the two games since Durant joined the lineup. But those wins were against Charlotte and Chicago. This will be a much tougher matchup and not only is it the Suns’ fourth straight road game, it’s their third in the last five days.

The Mavs, coming off an impressive 133-126 win over Philadelphia where both Irving and Luka Doncic scored over 40 points, are bidding to make it back to back wins for the first time since the All-Star Break. This will be their fifth game since the Break. All have come here at home.

While this may seem like a difficult matchup to handicap because of the recent drastic changes in makeup of the two teams, my view is that Dallas is a steal at this price at home. 8*

Even though they’ve won and covered four straight, I don’t like this spot at all for Golden State. The Warriors played last night and were 115-91 winners over the Clippers. While they ended up winning comfortably, this is still the second night of a back to back and there’s still no Steph Curry.

With a final score of 115-91, you would think that the Warriors coasted Thursday. But they were actually down by 11 at the half! The Dubs were very fortunate that the Clippers finished 9 of 43 from three-point range, including missing 18 of 19 to start the second half.

New Orleans is shorthanded at the moment as well, but rested and coming off a 121-110 win over Portland. The Pelicans are 2-0 vs. the Warriors in this 2022-23 season, both teams beating Golden State when they were in the second night of a back to back, which is again the case here.

While it was back in November and the Warriors rested multiple starters, the last time these teams played, New Orleans won by 45. 

This has all the makings of a spot where Golden State “phones it in.” New Orleans, currently 10th in the West, can’t afford to do that and will be the more motivated side tonight. Take the points. 8*

The 76ers look to avenge a 101-99 loss to the Heat tonight. That two-point setback took place on Monday and was the Sixers second straight defeat. But prior to that, they’d won and covered five in a row. On the flip side, Miami was 0-4 SU/ATS its previous four games before beating Philly. The Heat are 4-12 ATS L16 games and haven’t covered two in a row since early January.

So I like the road team, playing with revenge, laying a short number. Miami has been terrible ATS at home this year, going 8-19-2.

It was a tough spot for Philadelphia on Monday, coming off another close loss at home (to Boston) on Saturday. The Sixers ended up turning the ball over 18 times and ended up trailing the Heat by as many as 11 points. But despite all that - and missing several layups in the second half - the Sixers still had a chance to win at the end of regulation when James Harden’s three-point try bounced off the back of the rim.

Neither Bam Adebayo nor Tyler Herro played particularly well for the Heat Monday, but they still had five players finish in double figures. Adebayo figures to struggle again here as he’s got the tough assignment of dealing with Joel Embiid. The Heat normally don’t shoot well from three (just 33.3% for the season) but were 15 of 37 on Monday. I don’t see a repeat of that shooting tonight.

Philadelphia hasn’t dropped three in a row since early December. With so many road games looming and seeding on the line, I can’t see them losing this game. They are 18-7 ATS in revenge spots this season. 10*  

Chicago went into the All Star Break as losers of six in a row and they failed to cover the number in all six defeats. But it’s been a much different team coming out of the Break as the Bulls have soundly beaten both the Nets (131-87) and Wizards (102-82). 

Tonight, they go North of the Border to face Toronto, who is coming off a 25-point loss in Cleveland. I think this is a good time to sell high on the Bulls while simultaneously buying low on the Raptors (who are 4-1 ATS coming off a double digit loss).  

Toronto is 19-13 SU at home this season. Chicago is just 10-20 SU on the road. The last time the Bulls won a road game was January 28th in Orlando. Excluding a win over in Europe, that is the Bulls’ only road win since January 6th! 

The Raptors went 4-1 SU/ATS on a recent homestand, before going 0-2 ATS at Detroit and Cleveland (did win the Detroit game, straight up). Overall, this team has won seven of nine. They are 8-3 ATS L11 at home. 

After shooting over 50% at home each of the last two games, the Bulls are likely due for some shooting regression tonight. Washington also shot horribly against them on Sunday. Coming off back to back sub-100 point games, you’ve got to think Toronto is due for some positive regression at the offensive end. 10*

Phoenix returned home after a five-game road trip Wednesday and defeated Sacramento 120-109 as a two-point favorite. I don’t think tonight goes as well for the Suns.

Now the Suns have beaten the Clippers twice out in LA. But this is a different Clippers team now. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in either of those first two meetings while Paul George also sat out once. The Clips’ leading scorers in the losses to the Suns were Morris and Mann.

Phoenix has won 11 of 14 since an injury-induced slide last month. But they’ve been facing a lot of weak competition.

The Clippers just scored 134 on Wednesday night in a win over Golden State. They had a 44-point third quarter. Leonard led the way with 33 points in 34 minutes while George added 20 points and eight assists.

Phoenix is 9-0 SU/ATS in division games, the only team in the league without a division loss. I think that ends here. 10*

This shapes up to be a pretty important matchup in the Eastern Conference, right before the All-Star Break. Cleveland has the second best point differential in the league, trailing only Boston, but is fourth in the standings and one game behind Philadelphia.

The Cavaliers have won seven in a row. They covered the spread in six of those wins, but then couldn’t quite get the job done for their backers as huge 16-point favorites against San Antonio. They are underdogs here, the first time that’s been the case since a loss at Oklahoma City on 1/27.

You might be surprised to find out that the Cavs are only 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS when listed as the underdog this season.

Philadelphia has revenge coming into this game. They lost by 28 in Cleveland back in November. 

The Sixers are 16-5 ATS this season when playing with revenge. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak and are 12-3 SU L15 games. Cleveland also has a losing record on the road. I expect Philly to win and cover tonight. 10*

Boston is going to be shorthanded for this one, which is why the line has moved so dramatically. I’m still going to lay the points though with red hot Milwaukee, who should roll in this one.

The Bucks have won 10 straight and are 23-5 straight up at home. Early on in the season, the problem was the team was not all that healthy. But now Khris Middleton is back and the Bucks’ offensive efficiency has gone way up.

The Celtics’ projected starting five for this matchup is: Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Grant Williams, Al Horford and Robert Williams. We know Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Danilo Galinari are all out. Additionally, Jayson Tatum is listed as doubtful. Basically, I expect the Celtics to wave the proverbial “white flag” tonight. Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogden are all listed as questionable, by the way.

The Bucks are just 1.5 games back of the Celtics. A win here pulls them even in the loss column. 

Boston has had Milwaukee’s number in the past, going 12-2 ATS L14 meetings including 6-0 here in Milwaukee. This is a chance for the Bucks to exact some revenge for a 21-point loss on Christmas. Fade a clearly shorthanded Celtics squad here. 10*

Coming into the season, the Jazz and Pacers were both expected to be among the worst teams in the NBA. They were each projected for just 23.5 wins. As you can see, both have wildly overachieved, already eclipsing their paltry projections.

But there can be no denying that both teams have slowed down of late, especially Indiana, who comes into Monday having lost 15 of its last 17 games. Utah has lost four of five.

The key for this game though is that Indiana is at home. They are 17-13 straight up and 18-11-1 ATS at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. 

Utah is only 10-18 straight up on the road. They have a winning ATS record, but that’s because they are usually a dog, which is obviously not the case here.

Even if the Pacers are bet to a favorite tonight, I’m sticking with them. (The Jazz are 2-5 SU/ATS as away favorites). The Jazz shook up the roster at the deadline and were down double digits to the Knicks Saturday before a late rally ultimately fell short. 10*

The Raptors are curiously 0-7 ATS the last seven meetings with the Pistons and have lost six of the seven games straight up. I look for that to change on Sunday.

The one straight up win came in Detroit, earlier this season, as the Raptors prevailed 115-111. 

On Friday, the Pistons needed double overtime to defeat the sorry Spurs 138-131. But that was just their third win in the last month. I have Detroit rated as the third worst team in the NBA, ahead of only the Rockets and Spurs.

Toronto also beat the Spurs this week, albeit much easier, 112-98. They followed that with a loss to Utah in a game that was decided in the fourth quarter.

Even though they are 26-31, the Raptors have a positive point differential for the season. They are better than their record and should be able to blow out the Pistons here. 10*

Cleveland has been very good at home so far, going 22-6 straight up and 19-9 against the spread. But you’d have to go back to the LeBron days to find the last time they were favored by this many points.

It’s a good time to go against the Cavs, in my opinion. They’ve covered three in a row and are 2-0 vs. the Pistons this season. That all has conspired to inflate this number. 

Over the 82-game grind that is the NBA regular season, you’re going to have some “off nights.” Cleveland has been pretty dialed in each of its last two games, but I don’t see that same kind of effort forthcoming here in what will be the team’s third game in four days.

Detroit, who is expected to be a seller at the trade deadline, could use a good effort. They’ve dropped four of five and 8 of their last 10. I think they come out strong here against a division rival. 

Note that Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS following a double digit win. Grab the points. 10*

Orlando returns home, looking to make it three straight wins as a short dog. They’ve recently beaten Minnesota 127-120 (were +4) and Charlotte 119-113 (were +2), both on the road.

But I’m looking to fade the Magic here as the oddsmakers have started to give them too much respect. They are still just 12-19 SU vs. teams that are .500 or better.

The Knicks are 29-26 SU following a thrilling comeback win over the Sixers on Sunday. I had NY plus the points in that one. Now they go from home dogs to road favorites. This season, NY is 6-2 ATS laying points away from home.

Earlier in the season, the Knicks beat the Magic 115-102 as a 7.5-point home favorite. Yes, the Magic are better now. But minus Mo Bamba (suspended), I don’t see them winning here. Lay it. 10*

After winning (and covering) six in a row, the Wizards have lost two straight. In both losses, they blew leads of 20+ points. So there’s an argument to be made that this team should be on an eight-game SU win streak entering Monday.

Against Portland on Friday, the Wizards saw their big lead quickly go away in the third quarter. Then on Saturday in Brooklyn, who didn’t have Durant, Irving, or Simmons, it was more of the same.

Here they are catching a small number at home and facing a Cleveland team that just played Sunday. The Cavs were successful yesterday, downing Indiana 122-103. But even with that result, they are just 11-16 SU on the road this season.

There is always a chance that Donovan Mitchell could sit tonight. 

Washington is poor as a home favorite (3-9 ATS) but 22-17-1 ATS otherwise. I like them as a dog tonight. 8*

Philadelphia has won 9 of 10 and just beat San Antonio 137-125 as a 10-point favorite on Friday. New York has won just 3 of 10 after losing in overtime last night, 134-128 to the Clippers, as a 2.5-point home underdog.

Despite those recent streaks, and this being the second night of a back to back, I’m siding with the Knicks on Sunday. 

I believe NY can exploit a Philly defense that has actually gotten worse while the team has been winning. 

In five of the last six games, the Sixers have allowed 119 or more points. The one exception was Wednesday’s home win over Orlando, who missed 32 of their 38 attempts from three. 

The Knicks’ 12-13 SU home record seems a bit misleading as they’ve scored more points than they’ve allowed. I know they were down 17 in the 4Q last night, before making a furious rally to force OT. But we’re also getting points here, which I like, as NY is 6-1 ATS its last seven games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* 

Portland has won three straight and covered six of seven, but they had to come back from 20 down last night in Washington, so they are probably ripe to be blown out tonight in Chicago. 

The Bulls won by 16 against Charlotte on Thursday and didn’t even get good games from either DeRozan or LaVine. Those two combined for just 25 points.

But the Bulls have won five of eight overall. In one of the three losses, they blew a big lead.

I just think all signs point to a comfortable win for the home team.

I cashed with the Pacers last night, but want NO part of them here in the second night of a back to back against Sacramento.

Indiana led most of the way Thursday against the Lakers, but succumbed to a 28-15 fourth quarter rally by LeBron and company and thus ended up losing by a final score of 112-111. At least they covered the spread (+2.5). 

That was the Pacers fourth straight loss and 11th loss in the last 12 games. In the only win during that 12-game stretch (1/24 vs. Chicago), they trailed by 21 in the first half.

Sacramento is keen on ending what is the longest playoff drought for any team in the four “major” North American sports. The Kings are well on their way to making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. They are currently third in the Western Conference with a 29-21 overall record and have won 9 of their last 12 games.

Earlier this season, when the Pacers were playing better, they lost by 23 points to the Kings. These are now two teams trending in opposite directions. 10*

Indiana had been a real pleasant surprise this NBA season, but has now dropped 10 of its last 11 games. Just to illustrate how low expectations were here, the team has already exceeded its preseason win projection.

Expectations are always high for the Lakers, but they always seem to fall short. Right now, LeBron and company find themselves third from the bottom in the Western Conference standings.

LA did just go on the road and beat NY in what was the second night of a back to back for them. But now we’re talking about a fourth road game in six days. I just don’t have faith in this Lakers team.

They give up 121 points/game on the road and even with James & Davis on the floor, the net efficiency rating isn’t as high as you’d think. 

The Pacers are 16-9-1 ATS at home this year. I like them getting points. If Tyrese Haliburton could return (questionable), that would be an added bonus. 10*

Here’s another NBA play where we will have to hold our noses. San Antonio has lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 games. They’ve failed to cover each of the last five times out.

But, despite all that, I’m not sure Sacramento (who is playing its third consecutive road game) should be laying this many points.

The Kings still carry a bottom 10 defensive rating and have given up more points than they’ve scored on the road this season.

They needed overtime to get the “W” on Monday in Minnesota. I think there’s a good chance the Kings “overlook” the Spurs tonight.

Despite all their woes, San Antonio is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games against teams that have winning records. Take the points. 8*

Both the Lakers and Knicks are looking to bounce back from losses to Brooklyn in their most recent games. I think the home team is well-positioned to be the one that gets the job done.

This is the second night of a back to back for the Lakers, who lost 121-104 in Brooklyn last night. Neither LeBron James or Anthony Davis suited up Monday. That was their second loss in a row, coming on the heels of the “controversial” overtime loss to Boston Saturday night. 

The Knicks lost in Brooklyn Saturday night, 122-115 as a 1-point favorite. Defensively, they had few answers, especially for Kyrie Irvin. Prior to that though, NY had won two straight.

Curiously, the Knicks are just 12-13 SU at home this season. I expect that record to improve moving forward. The Lakers, just 10-16 on the road, are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here.

Look for the Knicks to punish a Lakers team that is allowing 120.9 points/game on the road. James and Davis both remain on the injury report and if one (or both) were not to play tonight, the current number is a steal. (Note: this play stands whether or not James and/or Davis plays or not).  8*

The Raptors have started to play a bit better. They’re still five games below .500 and 12th in the East, mind you. But they’ve also won three of four, most recently defeating the Kings in Sacramento by a score of 123-105 (as a 4.5 point dog). Now they head to Phoenix, looking to improve to 3-1 on this current trip out West.

The Suns had a miserable post-Christmas stretch where they lost 9 of 10. Injuries were the main culprit. Devin Booker remains out but the team has now won five of six. The only loss in that stretch came here at home vs. Dallas Thursday night. I faded the Suns in that spot and will do the same again tonight.

Saturday’s 128-118 win in San Antonio was a little misleading as the Suns needed overtime. It also bears mentioning that the Spurs are one of the two worst teams in the league.

Toronto has scored more points than its allowed this season, so they should have a better record. They beat the Suns 113-104, albeit at home, back on December 30th.

Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne also remain out for Phoenix. DeAndre Ayton was battling a non-COVID illness last week while Chris Paul is just a week removed from his own seven-game absence. Take the points while you can get them. 10*

Portland has strung together consecutive home victories (beating San Antonio and Utah) and will now look to make it three in a row as they host Toronto (who is in the second game of a back to back). 

The Blazers beat the Spurs 147-127 in a game where I laid the -9. Then they beat the Jazz 134-124 as 3.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

It’s a massive edge in rest for the home team tonight as, like I said earlier, Toronto was in action last night. Unfortunately, that result didn’t work out too well for me as I had the Under in their 129-117 loss to the Warriors.

Typically, spots like this have been good to back the Blazers. They are 6-1 ATS this season when coming off three or more consecutive home games.

This will be the fourth time Toronto finds itself playing in the second of back to back road games with no rest in between. They’ve lost each of the last three times by an average of 8.3 points. 10*

The Pacers snapped a seven-game losing streak on Tuesday as they rallied back from a 20+ point deficit to defeat the Bulls 116-110 here at home. But then they immediately reverted back to their losing ways, falling the next night in Orlando by a score of 126-120. 

While struggling recently, Indiana has already exceeded its projected win total (23.5) from the preseason. So, in that regard, the season is already a success! But this is a team that can make the playoffs in the depth-shy Eastern Conference (at least the play-in round) so I don’t see them “phoning it in” even after going Over their win total.

Milwaukee is near the top of the East, which is what you’d expect, but they had problems beating a severely undermanned Denver team two nights ago. The Nuggets were without four key players, Nikola Jokic being one of them, and yet still ended up making a game of it. The final score of 107-99.

That was the Bucks’ first game without the injured Bobby Portis. They’ve struggled on the road this year, going just 12-12 with a -3.8 point/game differential. I want no part of laying this many points on the road with the Bucks, even if they’ve beaten the Pacers nine straight times.

Indiana plays hard almost every night, even without leading scorer Haliburton. They are 16-9 SU and 16-8-1 ATS at home. Had it not been for a terrible 1st quarter against Orlando, they likely could have come back and won that game. I’ll take the points here. 10*

Dallas really needs to get going as they’ve dropped five of six, including a 127-126 loss at home Tuesday to a Washington team that was playing short handed. That was despite 41 points from Luka Doncic. That particular game was decided on a made free throw in the final 4.1 seconds.

The Mavs are still top six in the Western Conference, but this losing streak has created a sense of urgency. Seven teams are within two games of them, which means missing the playoffs (while unlikely) is not out of the question.

One of those seven teams on the Mavs’ heels is Phoenix. Actually these teams are tied with matching 25-24 SU records. But the Suns have won four in a row after being dreadful for most of January. They’ve covered the spread all in all four games, all of which were here at home.

Last time these teams met, Dallas won by 19 at home. I still think they are the better team and Phoenix is just 6-12 ATS in revenge spots this season.

Three of those last four Suns’ victories were by five points or less and the other one was against Charlotte where they shot a blistering 55 percent from three. While healthier than they were a couple weeks ago, the Suns are still without Devin Booker. Look for Doncic to lead Dallas to a victory here. 10*

The Clippers finally seem like they’re putting it together, albeit it’s only been two straight wins and one of them was against San Antonio. But they also won 112-98 in Dallas on Sunday thanks to a dominant second half performance. I like them here to cover against the Lakers.

The Lakers have also won two straight, but both were miracle comebacks as they trailed Memphis by seven with three minutes to go (won 122-121) and then Portland by 25 at halftime (won 121-112). I don’t see this as a sustainable blueprint for success.

The Clippers are 2-0 vs. the Lakers so far this season, winning by six as the “road team” and 13 as the “home team.” (Both teams play here at the Crypto.com Arena, obviously). The Clippers have won and covered four straight when listed as “the road team” in this rivalry.

The Lakers are just 1-8 ATS vs. the rest of the division in 2022-23. Over the last three seasons, they are 14-30 ATS in division games.

When the Clippers are at full strength, as they are now, they are simply better than the Lakers. LeBron has little help. Kawhi Leonard scored 30 and Paul George had 21 against Dallas. Either is capable of leading the Clippers to victory on any given night. Lay it. 10* 

I feel that Portland let a golden opportunity slip through their grasp last night, hosting the Lakers. The Blazers had a one day rest advantage over LA and were six-point favorites at home. Up 25 at halftime, it certainly appeared that the home team was headed for victory. But it ended up being a 121-112 loss instead. 

That was the Lakers’ first road game since January 9th. Tonight, Portland hosts an even worse team that hasn’t played a road game since January 11th. That would be San Antonio, who has the worst defensive rating in the league as well as the worst point differential. 

I realize that it may seem a bit “scary” to lay this many points with a team that is just 2-8 SU and ATS over its last 10 games. But, if the Blazers can’t cover here, it might be time to “fold up the tent.” 

San Antonio is truly horrific. They just allowed the Clippers to shoot 63% from the field on Saturday and score 33 or more points in three different quarters. 

The Spurs are 2-9 SU their last 11 games overall and are being outscored by an average of almost 12 points/game on the road this season. Lay it. 10*

New Orleans has been trending in the wrong direction for awhile now, losing 8 of its last 11 games including each of the last three. They are now 7 games adrift of the top spot in the Western Conference and 5.5 games behind second place Memphis.

So a win here today in Miami is much needed. The Pelicans will be looking to avenge an ugly 124-98 loss they took at the hands of the Heat back on Wednesday.

Obviously, this Pelicans’ losing streak coincides with Zion Williamson being out of the lineup. Brandon Ingram is also out. But CJ McCollum averages 21.3 and a team-high 5.8 assists. I expect better results for this team moving forward. 

This is too many points to pass up in my opinion. Miami is only 7-14-2 ATS at home including 5-13-2 when going off as the favorite. They were just blown out (by 25) in Dallas Friday night, a game the Heat actually went off as two-point favorites.

Minnesota is coming off a 128-126 win over Toronto where they were five-point underdogs here at home. They go from that, to being a significant favorite here tonight against sorry Houston.

The T’wolves have already beaten the Rockets twice this season, by 12 and by 8. The larger margin of victory was here at home. 

Houston has not won a game since the day after Christmas! The losing streak hit 12 with their 122-117 home loss to Charlotte on Wednesday. They’d previously dropped four in a row on the road, three of those by 20 or more, while giving up an average of 133.8 points per game.

It gets even worse. The Rockets haven’t covered a spread since January 2nd. It’s eight straight ATS losses. 

On the road this season, the Rockets are 4-20 and being outscored by over 10 points/game. Play against them at all costs right now. 10*

Golden State goes from one NBA Finals rematch to another. Last night, they lost 121-118 in Boston, a rematch of last year’s Finals. Now they face a team that played in four consecutive Finals (2014-17), that being Cleveland. LeBron might now be long gone, but this current Cavaliers team is most certainly for real.

The Warriors found themselves on the wrong end of an 8-0 OT run last night in Boston. They are now just 5-18 on the road. Having to play again on the road, in the second night of a back to back, after blowing a double digit second half lead, is a tough spot.

Given the way this line is moving, I suspect the Warriors may be giving someone the night off. In the second game of six previous road back to backs, we’ve seen them elect to rest one or multiple starters. They did beat Washington 127-118 in an identical situation Monday. But the five previous times saw them lose by an average of more than 20 points/game.

Furthermore, this will be Golden State’s fifth straight game on the road.

Cleveland is 19-4 SU/16-7 ATS at home this season. They are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Even if Donovan Mitchell (questionable) can’t play here, I believe the Cavs take care of business and snap a 14-game losing streak to the Warriors. Lay it! 10*

You can watch this one on TNT. After essentially “punting” on the game in San Antonio Tuesday, the Nets should bounce back here against a Phoenix team that’s even more short-handed.

Already without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving did not play against the Spurs. The result was an embarrassing 106-98 loss to what I consider to be the worst team in the league.

Since Durant went down, the Nets’ offensive numbers have gone in the toilet. They’re averaging fewer than 100 points over the last three contests. But Irving is probable to go here. 

We don’t know exactly who WON’T be going for Phoenix. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, Josk Okogie and Landry Shamet are all on the injured list. But of the seven, only Paul and Johnson have a chance of playing here. 

The Suns have won just once in their last 10 games and this is the first game back home after a four-game trip, a spot we typically see teams struggle in. 10*

Remember when Atlanta drafted Luka Doncic, then immediately traded him to Dallas in exchange for Trae Young? OOPS! The Hawks probably regret that move, this season more than ever, as Doncic is putting in a MVP-caliber season while Young has seemingly lost the ability to shoot from three.

There are 35 NBA players that have attempted at least 250 three-pointers this season. Young is 33rd in 3PT% (at 32.5).

Now the Hawks do come into Dallas on a three-game win streak. They beat Indiana, Toronto and Miami over a four-day stretch, the first two coming on the road. But the only other time this season that the Hawks found themselves on a three-game win streak, they went out and lost the next game, by six at Utah.

Dallas should be glad to be back home after a five-game road trip where they went 1-4. They are 16-6 SU at home and while only 8-11-3 ATS, this is a short number that I’m not really worried about.

The Mavs have won & covered each of the last three times they’ve been off back to back losses. Only once all season have they lost more than two in a row. 10* 

Yes, Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant. But if there’s a worse team in the NBA than San Antonio, I’m not aware of them. The Spurs have been outscored by 9.1 points/game (worst in the league), 8.7 points per 100 possession (29th out of 30), own the worst defensive rating and are 28th on offense.

Overall, the Spurs have dropped five straight and eight of nine coming into Tuesday.

The Nets have lost two in a row without Durant, but held the lead going into the 4Q Sunday vs. OKC. They were ultimately doomed by shooting 29% from three. 

But this has “get right game” written all over it for Brooklyn, who beat the Spurs by 36 earlier this month. Durant did have 25 points in that win, but also played just 29 minutes. 

The Nets still have Kyrie Irving and also got 23 points from Seth Curry off the bench on Sunday. Two other starters finished in double figures. There’s enough firepower on hand to beat the lowly Spurs. 10*

Two teams headed in very different directions here. Phoenix is just 2-11 over its last 13 games and has covered the spread only two times in the last nine games. Memphis is on a nine-game win streak, during which they are 6-3 ATS.

But, surprisingly, this is a revenge spot for the Grizzlies. 

They lost to the Suns, here at home, 125-108 right after Christmas (12/27). That was after blowing the Suns out (in Phoenix) just four days earlier.

The Grizzlies are a devastating home team. Not only are they 18-3 at the FedExForum, but they are winning by an average of 10.8 points/game.

This is a depleted Suns roster with little chance of doing anything today. No Booker, Paul, Payne or Johnson. That wasn’t the case when they beat the Grizzlies last month. Memphis has scored 121 or more points in six straight games. Phoenix has failed to score 100 five of its last seven and has given up 123.5 PPG over its last two. Lay it. 10*

Denver sat Nikola Jokic on Friday and still beat the Clippers 115-103 on the road. So you have to like their chances here, at home against the lowly Magic, even with a large spread in play.

The Nuggets are tied (with Memphis) for the best record in the Western Conference right now at 29-13. They’ve won five in a row overall and covered the spread in four of the wins (with one push). Since 12/18, the team is 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS. 

At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have Orlando, who is a bottom five team in the NBA, although definitely better than the bottom four. The Magic are at the end of a five-game road trip and while things have gone surprisingly well so far (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), I think they’re ripe to get blown out tonight.

Jokic will play for the Nuggets and that’s obviously bad news for an Orlando team that carries a bottom 10 ranking both offensively and defensively. 

The Nuggets aren’t just winning games, they are crushing teams, outscoring the last five opponents by an average of 19.6 points/game. I have no problem laying this number Sunday night. 10*

On paper, this looks like a big mismatch with the best team in the East (and probably the entire NBA) taking on the team with the worst record in the Conference.

Boston has been very impressive in rolling to a league-best 32-11 record. They come into the weekend riding a five-game win streak after defeating Brooklyn 109-98 Thursday.

But the Celtics haven’t been that great as road favorites so far, at least at the betting window as they are 7-10-1 ATS in that role. With another game here in Charlotte Monday afternoon, I can see this not exactly being a peak performance (Jaylen Brown is questionable to play).

Meanwhile, it should be “all hands on deck” for the Hornets, who are back home after playing the last four games on the road. They’ve lost six of seven overall, but did upset Milwaukee on the road, 138-109 as a 10-point underdog.

With Boston only outscoring its opponents by 2.5 points/game on the road, I just think this is too many points. 10* 

Utah has been sliding in recent weeks (2-8 SU L10 games), but did just defeat their old teammate (Deron Williams) and Cleveland earlier this week. I like their chances of not only making it two straight, but also covering the spread on Friday.

The Jazz get Orlando off a win, and a rather shocking one at that as the Magic beat the Blazers on the road, 109-106 as an eight-point underdog.

But this will be the Magic’s fourth straight road game, all out West. The Portland win came on the second night of a back to back, making that result all the more shocking. But even with the two days off here, I think fatigue could be setting in.

At home, the Jazz are averaging 120.9 points/game. That’s far too much for an Orlando team that only averages 106.6 on the road. The Magic were at 51.3% from the field in their last game. Rarely, do they shoot better than 50% in two straight games. 10*

Portland will host Cleveland Thursday night, looking for a reversal of fortunes as the Blazers have dropped four straight while the Cavs have won four of six.

They say “there’s no place like home,” but for Portland that was untrue two nights ago when they went out and lost to Orlando, 109-106, here at home. That was their first game back home following an 0-3 road trip and they shot just 6 of 35 from three. I expect much better shooting in this game, even though Cleveland has a reputation of being very good defensively.

While the Cavs have won four of six, they are just 1-2 on the current road trip and this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days (third in five). Donvan Mitchell’s 46 was not enough against his former team (Utah) on Wednesday as the Cavs lost to the Jazz 116-114.  

It’s been a good first half of the season in Cleveland, but we’ve seen the team start to “give a little back” at the betting window where they are 2-6-1 ATS their last nine games. The market seems to have caught up to this team. Furthermore, the Cavs are just 6-12-2 ATS on the road this year.

Needless to say, Indiana has outperformed their low expectations coming into the season. One more win and the Pacers go Over their season win total! 

Unfortunately, Pacers’ fans, you’re going to have to wait another day. I like the Knicks here, at home, coming off a loss. 

The Knicks were a trendy pick Monday night vs. Milwaukee and looked to be well on their way to victory. But they blew a 17-point lead here at home and ended up losing by four. This should have them coming out angry for tonight.

Last month, the Knicks beat the Pacers, 109-106 in Indiana, and went off as a 1-point favorite. I think the number should be higher here. 

Indiana has a negative efficiency rating (-1.9), so I think their 23-18 record is a bit fraudulent. I see them as being due for a downturn. Fade. 10* 

The Clippers badly need to get back on track. They’ve lost five in a row and failed to cover the spread in the last four games. 

The Hawks aren’t in any better shape as they’ve dropped six of eight amidst chemistry issues. As a three-point favorite, they were beaten by the Lakers on Friday and gave up 130 points.

There’s seemingly always a question about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s statuses when you play the Clippers, but I like them regardless tonight. This will be just the second time in the last nine games that they get to play at home. 

Atlanta was down 70-49 at the half to the Lakers and is 7-13 on the road. 

Look for this to be a “get right” spot for LA.  10*

Bad spot here for New Orleans, who is in the second game of a back to back without Zion Willamson and Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans fought valiantly last night at home, but ultimately lost to the Nets 108-102 and didn’t cover the 4-point spread.

Dallas had Friday off and should come out angry here after having their seven-game win streak snapped in embarrassing fashion Thursday when they were blown out here at home by the Celtics, 124-95. 

It has to be very frustrating for the Pelicans to look at that final score from last night as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving miss a combined 32 shots for Brooklyn. NO had its own shooting woes in the second half, however, making just 2 of 12 threes. They finished the game at 39.8% overall. 

While the Pelicans have been an excellent home team so far, they are below .500 on the road (7-10 SU) and this is not the situation to get back on track.

The Mavericks were 29-9 ATS the previous two seasons when off a game like Thursday where they were held under 100 points. They haven’t been as profitable in that situation this season, but it’s still a good spot to jump on as Luka should have another big game. 10*

The Suns are a bit of a mess right now due to Devin Booker being injured. The team has lost four straight. In the last two games, they’ve finished with only 83 and 88 points.

But all four of those losses came on the road. I know that when a team is playing its first home game following a long road trip, it’s usually not the best time to jump on board. However, the Suns should be very happy to be back at home where they are 14-5 this season.

Miami is at the end of a five-game road trip here. They’ve won two and lost two thus far. The last game saw the Heat lose to a Lakers team that did not have LeBron James or Anthony Davis. They let Dennis Schroder go for a season-high 32 points.

Mostly because of injuries, the Heat have underperformed this season. They are just a game above .500 and sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference standings. But due to Phoenix’s recent woes and the short number, my guess is that most bettors will be on the road favorite here. I think that’s a mistake. 

The Suns almost won at Cleveland on Wednesday and that is not an easy place to play. (Cavs are 18-4 at home). They lost on a last second jumper by Evan Mobley. I think this is a good buy low spot on Phoenix, who isn’t a home dog very often. Miami is 7-18 ATS as a favorite this season. 8*

On Tuesday, the Celtics were blown out in the most shocking way imaginable, 150-117 by Oklahoma City. It was the most points allowed in a game by the franchise since 1979! 

It was also the Celtics’ second loss in a row. I played against them on New Year’s Day when they started this four-game road trip with a 123-111 loss at Denver. Despite basically being fully healthy, the Celtics have dropped five of nine overall.

But they are still the best team in basketball in my view and their reputation still carries a lot of weight in the marketplace as they are favored here, on the road, over a Dallas team that’s on a seven-game win streak.

These teams met back in November, in Boston, and the Celtics won 125-112 as 5.5-point favorites.

You know we’re going to get an inspired showing from the Celtics after they got humiliated by one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. 10* 

After winning and covering eight straight, the Knicks promptly dropped five in a row. But now they’re pointed back in the right direction after back to back blowout wins. They should make it three in a row tonight when they host the Spurs.

They may not have the worst record in the league, but no team has been outscored by more than the Spurs have been. In their last game, they went down by 36 at the hands of Brooklyn. The Spurs never led at any points in the game.

The Knicks outscored Houston 81-53 over the final three quarters on Saturday, then led by as many as 32 against Phoenix on Monday. 

I don’t expect their to be any kind of letdown tonight, considering NY will be playing with revenge for a 122-115 loss that occurred in San Antonio last week. In that game, Julius Randle scored 41 but the Spurs shot 51.1% as a team.

Since then, the Knicks have gotten back to playing outstanding defense, giving up just 88 and 83 points the L2 games. The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league and are 28th on offense. Lay it. 10*

The Wizards upset the Bucks as 2.5-point underdogs on New Year’s Day, winning 118-95. But that upset comes with a giant asterisk. The Bucks were short handed for that game as Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out due to knee soreness. Jrue Holiday also missed the game with an illness and Khris Middleton didn’t play either. 

Both Giannis and Holiday are expected to play in the rematch tonight. I’m expecting a big Bucks’ win at home.

The Bucks have dropped five of six, so they could use an impressive performance. The Wizards are 5-0 SU/ATS in their L5 games, but remember that it wasn’t that long ago they were on a 10-game losing streak.

With Giannis and Holiday on the floor, the Bucks have a +8.9 net rating and are a much better team defensively. I’m aware Washington may get Bradley Beal back, but when these teams are close to full strength, it’s a clear mismatch for Milwaukee.

When coming off an upset loss as a favorite, the Bucks are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season. The Wizards’ have allowed an average of only 103.8 points during the five-game win streak, but that’s well below their season average of 112.4 and I’d expect them to regress at the defensive end sooner rather than later. Lay the points here. 10* 

In a tough Western Conference, the T’wolves really need to get going. Right now, they are on the WRONG side of the cut line when it comes to the play-in tournament. Not even being among the West’s Top 10 is certainly a bit of a shock, considering where this team was projected to be coming into the season. 

Tonight, Minnesota hosts Denver, who is coming off a big win over Boston last night. I played the Nuggets Sunday as they easily covered as 1.5-point underdogs, winning 123-111. Nikola Jokic had yet another triple double (30-12-12) in a game that featured a 30+ minute delay due to a defective rim.

Denver is in 1st place in the West with a 24-12 record. But coming off last night’s win, this sets up as a letdown spot for them. It will be only their fourth time playing in a back to back this year. The Nuggets are also 0-2 ATS this season coming off a SU win where they were listed as the underdog.

Things may not be looking good in Minnesota as the team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS over its last six games. They lost here at home to the Pistons on Saturday, 116-104. But, because of that, there is no doubt as to which side should come out more motivated Monday night. 

The T’wolves went 3-1 against the Nuggets last year and have lost back to back home games only one time so far this season. Give me the points. 10*

Boston ended a seven-game homestand on a four-game win streak. They beat Minnesota, Milwaukee, Houston and the Clippers. They’ve had two days off to prepare for this New Year’s trip to Denver. 

As good as the Celtics are, the Nuggets are worthy adversaries. They’ve won 9 of 11 and one of those losses was by a single point.

At home, Denver is 13-3 and outscoring visitors by nine points per game. 

When these teams played in Boston on November 11th, the Celtics made 16 three-pointers and shot 55% overall. That will not be repeated. 

Jokic continues to be ridiculous for the Nuggets, making 50% of shots in 26 straight games. 10*

The Knicks are having all sorts of problems at the moment as they’ve dropped five in a row and are 0-4-1 ATS that same stretch. But they get a “new year’s present” tonight in the form of a matchup with the sorry Rockets. 

It wasn’t all that long ago that the Knicks were on an eight-game win streak. It’s not like they’re being blown out during this losing streak. All five losses have been by seven points or fewer. One was a buzzer beater while another was an overtime loss to Dallas that required a Herculean effort from Luka Doncic. 

Houston is unlikely to provide much resistance for a Knicks team that is desperate to get back on track. The Rockets have dropped seven of eight, the last two by a combined 39 points.

The Knicks are 22-7 ATS their last 29 road games. Look for them to tighten up at the defensive end and cover this small number. Julius Randle had 41 points and 11 rebounds in the last game and is capable of carrying the offensive load. 10* 

Dallas should be in line for a big win tonight when they host Houston, who is one of the worst teams in the league and just 1-6 SU in its L7 games. 

After being such a disappointment at the betting window for the first month of the season, we’ve seen better results from the Mavs recently. They have won four in a row including a 126-121 victory over the Knicks on Tuesday. In that game, Luka Doncic turned in the first 60-20-10 game (points-rebounds-assists) in league history. 

Three of those four recent wins for the Mavs have been by six points or less. One of them was in Houston 112-106 as seven-point favorites. Doncic had 50-8-10 in that game.

Doncic may not repeat those individual numbers tonight, but the Rockets are playing their third road game in four nights and are just 4-14 on the road this year. I am expecting a blowout. 

The Rockets just lost by 24 in Boston two nights ago. This is a team with a bottom three offensive and defensive rating. Lay it! 10*

Atlanta seemed to be in prime position for a win heading into Indiana last night. But they lost 129-114. If the Hawks can’t beat the Pacers, then I don’t see how they stand much of a chance vs. a Nets team that’s won nine straight while covering the spread in six of its last seven games. 

While one could make the argument that there’s not a ton of value in laying this number with Brooklyn, on the road, Atlanta has been a terrible team to bet on of late. The Hawks are 6-14 ATS the last 20 games and have failed to cover by an average of 4.7 points/game, the worst mark in the league during that time. 

Another potential problem for Atlanta is that Trae Young left last night’s game with an ankle injury. The Hawks were already missing two other starters - Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter. This is not a team you want to back right now.

As for the Nets, five of their last nine wins have come on the road, including 125-117 at Cleveland Monday night. The Cavs are not an easy team to beat, especially at home. But the Nets hung 125 points on what had been the league’s most efficient defense this year. Atlanta is far worse at defending than Cleveland. 

Brooklyn is leading the league in FG% and 3-point FG%. Kevin Durant has scored at least 25 points each of the last 13 times he’s faced Atlanta while Kyrie Irving is averaging 28-5-5 over his L10 games. Lay the number here. 10* 

The Clippers had absolutely zero business winning last night’s game in Detroit, let alone covering the spread. Down 14 with 3:34 left, LA appeared left for dead, but instead somehow rallied to force overtime where they’d go on to win 142-131. They were 5.5 point favorites.

I will look to fade LA again here, even if Kawhi Leonard ends up playing. A second night of a back to back after an OT game where they rallied just seems like a bad situation all around. The Clippers remain just 9-8 on the road and don’t play particularly good defense.

Toronto hasn’t played since before Christmas when they upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland (not easy to do), 118-107 as a 5-point dog. It was a perfect 3-0 ATS road trip for the Raptors, which included another outright win where they snapped the Knicks’ eight-game win streak. The only SU loss on the trip was by three, in overtime, at Philadelphia (who has been the hottest team in the league). 

Back to the Clippers, they have lost five of the seven times they’ve played in the second night of a back to back this year. 10*

If you’re thinking that this line looks a little “short” or even “scary,” the first thing you need to be aware of is that Kawhi Leonard is not taking the court tonight for the Clippers (due to injury management). 

The Clippers are only 8-8 on the road this season and coming off a deflating loss where they blew a 20-point lead at Philadelphia. 

Now it’s true the Pistons have the worst record in the NBA and are on a five-game losing streak. But this team generally plays hard. They are 9-3 ATS so far this season when they are on a losing streak of three or more games. 

Playing on exactly two days rest, the Clippers are 0-3 ATS. They are 6-23 ATS in that situation the last three seasons.

If you can believe it, the Pistons have a superior offensive rating compared to the Clippers. Without Leonard, expect the road team to struggle. 8*