The Yankees and the Royals will play a make up game at Kauffman Stadium tonight. Two of the previous three in the season series went under the total, and runs wont be easy to come by tonight as two hot pitchers take the mound.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

 1. Pitching - The Yankees will hand the ball to Michael Pineda (2-2, 2.05 ERA) who'll make his seventh start of the season. The 25 year old has not allowed more than two runs in any of his previous games. The Royals will counter with James Shields (12-6, 3.28 ERA) who's been dominant all season long. He's undefeated so far in August, going 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA over four starts. The 32 year old has hurled six innings versus the Yankees this season, allowing only one unearned run on six hits.  

2. Trends - None of Pineda's six starts this season have gone over the total, and the under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last four games on the road.  

3. X-factor - The Royals line-up is a combined 7-for-36 versus Pineda, with Billy Butler going 0-for-6. 

Selection: This is a play on the NYY@KC to go under the total (10*)

The Indians will look to complete the sweep of a three game series versus the Twins at Target Field this afternoon. The series finale has all the signs of a pitcher's duel. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Phil Hughes (13-8, 3.76 ERA) who's coming of four quality starts in a row, going 3-1 and allowing six hits on 25 hits over 26 2/3 innings. He has done well versus the Indians line-up in the past, limiting them to a .222 AVG. The Tribe will counter with Corey Kluber (13-6, 2.41 ERA) who's undefeated in his last eight games. He has not allowed more than one run in any of his last five games, tossing a total of 39 innings. He's 6-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 13 games on the road for the season. 

2. Trends - Eight of the Indians last nine games have gone under the total, and all of Kluber's last six road starts. All of Hughes' last six starts have also gone under the total. 

3. X-factor - The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota. 

Selection: This is a play on the Indians@Twins to go under the total (10*)

The Cardinals can complete the sweep of this three game set versus the Reds tonight. The visitors have four consecutive losses, but if any man can put an end to that it's Johnny Cueto. He'll be up against another strong pitcher though, and runs wont be easy to come by in this series finale. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Reds will hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (15-6, 2.06 ERA) who's the owner of the third lowest ERA in baseball this season. The 28 year old has conceded a total of seven runs on 24 hits over 39 innings in his last two games. He's 6-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 13 starts on the road for the season. The Cardinals will counter with Lance Lynn (13-8, 2.91 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts. He's coming off a solid outing where he conceded only one run on six hits over six innings in a 4-2 win versus the Padres. He's 8-3 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 starts home at Busch Stadium this season. 

2. Trends - The under is 4-1 in Cueto's last five starts on the road, all of Lynn's last seven coming in as a favorite has seen less run than the set line. 

3. X-factor - Only the Padres have scored fewer runs this season than the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Selection: This is a play on CIN@STL to go under the total (10*)

This four game set between the Reds and the Rockies is tied at 1-1 as the Reds equalized with a 3-2 win last night. Coors Field is known as a hitters park, and as a result we often get a high line on the total. We can take advantage of that this afternoon as we'll see two competent pitchers on the hill. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to Mat Latos (4-3, 2.95 ERA) who's shown good stuff all season long. He's coming off four quality starts in a row, and conceded only one run on five hits over seven innings versus the Red Sox his last time out. His road ERA is tiny 1.85 over five starts. The Rockies will counter with Jordan Lyles (6-1, 3.70 ERA) who's been very consistent this season. The 23 year old right-hander is coming off a loss at San Diego, but he allowed only two runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings. He's 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA over six starts at home for the season.

2. Rockies struggling offense - Colorado has only mustered 16 runs in its last five games, Thursday's 7-3 win in the series opener included. 

3. Injuries - The Rockies have Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez on the DL. The Reds are hit hard as well as Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto remain on the DL. 

Selection: This is a play on CIN@COL to go under the total (10*)

The Padres and the Cardinals are all set to play Game 3 of a four game set at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has won the first two games 4-2 and 4-3, and another low scoring ballgame is potentially in the cards tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Cardinals hand the ball to Shelby Miller (8-9, 4.17 ERA)  who's coming off a quality start in his last home game. The right-hander allowed only one run on four hits over seven innings, but the Cardinals still lost 2-1 to the Red Sox. He has done well versus the Padres line-up in the past, limiting them to a .205 AVG over 39 at bats. The Padres will counter with Jesse Hahn (7-3, 2.52 ERA), a 25 year old rookie who's showing some impressive numbers his first season in the major leagues. He's 4-1 on the road with a 2.12 ERA over five starts. 

2. Trends - All of the Cardinals last four games have gone under the total, as has the last four games between these two teams in St.Louis. 

3. X-factor - The Cardinals have taken a major step back offensively this season, in fact only the Padres have scored fewer runs this year than St. Louis. 

Selection: This is a play on SD@STL to go under the total (10*)

Last night's game between the Indians and the Diamondbacks was postponed due to heavy raining in Ohio. These two teams will make up for it by playing a double-header today, and I expect to see plenty of runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The D-backs will hand the ball to Vidal Nuno (2-8, 5.01), a 27 year old lefty who's been hit hard all season long. He surrendered five runs on seven hits over just four innings versus the Royals his last time out. He's win-less in his last seven starts. The Indians will counter with Josh Tomlin (5-8, 4.68 ERA) who's also struggled most of the season. He conceded six runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings in a loss at New York his last time out. 

2. Trends - The over is 4-1 in Cleveland's last five games, and all of Tomlin's last seven home starts have gone over the total.

3. X-factor - Jason Kipnis was 3-for-5 his last game.

Selection: This is a play on Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Indians to go OVER the total (10*). 

The Royals are on a six game winning streak and can complete the sweep of this three game set versus a struggling Giants team today. The Giants on the other hand have lost three straight, and show little signs of turning things around.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy (6-10, 2.39 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts, only allowing two runs on nine hits over 17 2/3 innings. He may only be 1-4 at home for the season, but has a 2.66 ERA in his 10 outings. The Giants will counter with Tim Lincecum who's win-less in his last six starts. 

2. Lincecum - The Royals haven't seen a lot of Lincecum, but through a combined 37 at bats, they have struck out 10 times with just seven hits. 

3. X-factor - The total is 8-2-1 in favor of the under in the Giants last 11 road games as an underdog. The under is 4-1 in the Royals last five home games. 

Selection: This is a play on SF@KC to go UNDER the total (10*)

Last night's series opener of a three game set in Kansas City saw the home team defeat the Giants 4-2. Tonight's contest should be another low-scoring one as two competent pitchers take the hill. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to James Shields (10-6, 3.43 ERA) who's given Kansas City solid pitching all season long. He has only allowed five runs on 16 hits over 21 innings in his last three starts. He has a respectable 3.58 ERA home at Kauffman Stadium in nine outings. The Giants are going with Tim Hudson (8-8, 2.74 ERA) who's win-less in his last three starts, he can't be blamed as he has conceded only eight runs on 21 hits over 18 innings. He's 3-4 with a 2.24 ERA on the road this season. 

2. Trends - The total has gone under in four of the Royals last five games overall, and in six of the Giants last eight games as an underdog on the road. 

3. X-factor - Tim Hudson has only allowed more than two earned runs once in his eleven road starts this season. 

Selection: This is a play on SF@KC to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Dodgers and the Angels will close out this four game home-and-home set tonight. The visitors edged last night's game 2-1, and I think this will be another low scoring affair. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Dodgers hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-5, 3.39 ERA) who's undefeated in his last four starts. He's been dominant on the road all season, going 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts. The lefty has a somewhat limited experience versus the Angels line-up, but he'a had the better of them so far with them hitting a measley .154 over 26 at bats. The Angels will counter with another southpaw, C.J. Wilson (8-7, 4.74 ERA) who has not really lived up to expectations lately. He has a good home record going 6-1 in 10 starts, although his 4.06 ERA could be better.  

2. No hitters park - All of the Angels last four games at Angel Stadium of Anaheim have gone under the predicted total, and the under is 4-0-1 in the last five head to head meetings in Anaheim. 

3. X-factor - No matter who's pitching for the Dodgers, Mike Trout seems to struggle. He's batting a lowly .245 over 13 games versus the Dodgers lifetime, and is 0-for-4 against Ryu.

Selection: This is a play on the LAD@LAA to go UNDER the total (10*)  

The Mariners won Game 1 of this two game set at home versus the Braves yesterday by a score of 4-2. That was the Braves seventh consecutive loss but they should be able to keep the score low and may even edge the win in a close game tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Mariners hand the ball to Chris Young (9-6, 3.19 ERA) who's been solid at home all season long. You may not lift an eyebrow over his 6-3 record at Safeco Field, but his 2.21 ERA with 50 strike outs over 11 starts is pretty impressive. The Braves will counter with Julio Teheran (10-7, 2.69 ERA), a 23 year old Colombian who's coming off a strong outing despite a 2-1 loss at the Dodgers. Teheran allowed only two runs on five hits with nine strike outs over eight innings. 

2. Trends - The under is 10-0-1 in Young's last 11 home starts, and 5-0 in Teheran's last five starts versus a team with a winning record.

3. X-factor - Freddie Freeman was 0-for-4 versus the Mariners yesterday, and is 1-for-6 versus Young lifetime. Ryan Doumit is 0-for-6 versus Young.

 
Selection: This is a play on the Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays finished July off with six consecutive wins, but have since lost three straight in August. The Orioles are 3-1 in their last four games, but they run into Toronto's ace tonight. The total looks a little high considering Buehrle's body of work this season. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Blue Jays hand the ball to veteran Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.11 ERA) who's coming off a 6-1 win at Boston, where he allowed one run on six hits over 6 2/3 innings. He's 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA at Rogers Centre this season. The Orioles will send Bud Norris (8-7, 3.69 ERA) to the hill, and his last outing on the road was not very impressive. The 29 year old right-hander surrendered four runs on six hits with three walks over five innings in a 3-4 loss at Seattle. He's 4-5 with a 4,66 ERA away from home for the season. 

2. Recent history - The teams are tied at 5-5 in the season series. The last four games have all seen seven runs or less. 

3. X-factor - Bud Norris last seven starts have all failed to reach the listed total. 

Selection: This is a play on the Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Athletics will open a three games set versus the Rays at O.co Coliseum in Oakland tonight. These two teams have played a three game set at Tampa Bay already this season, with every game going under. I expect today's pitchers to be able to keep the bats quiet as well. 
Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rays hand the ball to Alex Cobb who's 5-0 in his last six starts. Cobb (7-6, 3.54 ERA) has allowed only one run on eight hits, fanning 22 in his last two outings. The right-hander has already tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings versus the A's this season. Oakland will counter with Jeff Samardzija (2-1, 3.19 ERA) who has settled in well for the Athletics after joining them from the Cubs. He surrendered only one run on five hits over eight innings in his last home start, a 5-1 win versus the Orioles. 

2. Recent history - This will be the fourth encounter between the teams this season. Those contests finished 5-2, 3-0 and 3-2, for a total of 15 runs in three games. 

3. X-factor - The Rays line-up is batting .167 over 24 at bats versus Samardzija. 

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Bay Rays @ the Oakland Athletic to go UNDER the total (10*)

We saw the Giants blowout the Mets at Citi Field on Sunday, but I expect to see a much closer contest here on Monday afternoon. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Tim Hudson will be on the hill for the Giants and he's been good on the road all season long. Hudson (8-8, 2.71 ERA) has a 2.13 ERA on the road for the season, and went 1-1 with a 0.93 ERA in his three away starts in July. The Mets will counter with Dillon Gee (4-4, 3.77 ERA) who has struggled in his last three starts. He's been really good in day games though, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts. 
2. Hudson on the road - We've seen a trend of low scoring games when Tim Hudson starts on the road, as the total has gone under in five of his last six such outings. 

3. X-factor - Hunter Pence was 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs in yesterday's game, but he's only 2-for-16 versus Gee lifetime. 

Selection: This is a play on the San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets to go UNDER the total (10*)

Toronto defeated the Astros by a score of 6-5, thanks to a ninth inning game winning home run from Nolan Reimold in the series opener yesterday. Houston will to execute revenge tonight, and considering their choice of pitcher the offense will probably have to pull a heavy weight if they're to pull that off.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Collin McHugh who's been hit hard repeatedly for nearly two months now. McHugh (4-9, 3.45 ERA) has six consecutive losses, allowing a total of 21 runs on 28 hits over 34 1/3 innings. His last time out was no exception when he conceded four runs on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings versus Miami. The Blue Jays will counter with J.A. Happ (8-5, 4.58 ERA) who was hit hard his last time out as well. The Yankees managed to score three runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Bronx versus the southpaw. He's 4-2 with a 6.10 ERA on the road in 10 outings this season. 

2. Recent history - This will be the fifth game between the teams this season, with the first four seeing a total of 38 runs over the plate.  

3. X-factor -  Jose Altuve was on a 12 game hitting streak up until yesterdays game. He must be eager to get back to the plate as he looks to maintain his lead in the AL batting race.

 Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros to go OVER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays are coming off a 3-0 sweep at Boston, and are 10-3 since the All Star break. The offense has been terrific lately, scoring 35 runs in the last five games. The Astros took 2-of-3 from Oakland, with every game seeing more than nine runs. Two hot teams should be involved in another high scoring contest tonight, when they open a four game set at Minute Maid Park.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Jarred Cosart who has been hit hard lately. Cosart (9-7, 4.41 ERA) has surrendered 21 runs on 36 hits and 14 walks over 21 1/3 innings in his last four outings. He's 4-4 at home with a 4.67 ERA, and 4-6 with a 4.85 ERA under the lights this season. The Blue Jays will counter with Drew Hutchison (7-9, 4.44 ERA) who has been roughed up his last two away games, allowing a total of eight runs on 11 hits with eight walks over 13 innings.  

2. Recent history - This is the fourth game between the Blue Jays and the Astros this season. They combined for 27 runs in the first three.

3. X-factor - The Blue Jays Dioner Navarro was 3-for-4 in yesterdays win at Boston. He will face Cosart for the first time tonight, but is batting .323 in Houston lifetime.  

Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros to go OVER the total (10*)

The Padres bats came alive on Wednesday, blowing out the Cardinals by a score of 12-1. Offensive blow-outs have otherwise been scarce for San Diego this season, as they rank last in the majors in most offensive categories. The Cardinals aren't exactly lighting it up offensively either, and we should see a low scoring affair today in San Diego. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to Odrisamer Despaigne who despite a poor performance his last time out has shined during his rookie season. Despaigne (2-2, 1.66 ERA) is 1-0 in three starts at Petco Park with a 1.33 ERA over 20 1/3 innings. The Cardinals will counter with Shelby Miller (7-8, 4.20 ERA), a 23 year old who conceded two runs on three hits over 5 2/3 innings his last outing, a 6-3 win at the Cubs. 

2. The worst offense in the major leagues - Yes, San Diego Padres is the worst ranked team in runs, and the Cardinals are just marginally better ranking second to last.  

3. X-factor -  Brian Gorman will be calling balls and strikes today, and he's been generous to pitchers lately, with his last four games failing to go over the total. 

Selection: This is a play on the St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays were rather pedestrian offensively last night, beating the Red Sox 4-2. That was the first game between these two teams this season that saw less than eight runs scored, and I think that order will be restored tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Red Sox hand the ball to Brandon Workman who has been hit hard lately, losing three consecutive games. Workman (1-3, 4.13 ERA) surrendered five runs on eight hits over seven innings in a 8-3 loss versus the White Sox in his most recent outing. The Blue Jays will counter with Mark Buehrle, who is a shadow of his former self. Buehrle (10-7, 3.19 ERA) is 0-6 with a 4.83 ERA in his last nine outings.

2. The offense - The Blue Jays have scored five runs or more in seven of their last nine games. The Red Sox offense is not quite as strong, but has a good record versus Buerhle who has a 5.84 ERA versus the home team this season. 

3. X-factor - David Ortiz is batting .316 over 79 at bats lifetime versus Buerhle, and Dustin Pedroia is 15-for-40.

Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox to go over the total (10*).

The Yankees won Game 1 of this three game set 6-4 yesterday and they have now won 7-of-8 at home since the All Star break. The Blue Jays are 4-2 in their last six games, with each game seeing eight runs or more. Today's contest should be another high scoring affair. 
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Blue Jays send Drew Hutchison to the hill, and he's been hit hard all season long, with his last outing being no exception. Hutchison (6-9, 4.54 ERA) surrendered six runs on nine hits over just 2 2/3 innings. In the game prior to that he allowed six runs on six hits with five walks over 5 1/3 innings. Derek Jeter is 5-for-11 versus Hutchison lifetime, and the Bronx Bombers line-up is batting .317 over 60 at bats. The Yankees counter with Chris Capuano (1-1, 4.55 ERA), who much like Hutchison has struggled lately. The 35 year old conceded five runs on six hits over 2 1/3 innings in a 3-12 loss at Seattle his last time out. The Blue Jays line-up is batting a combined .256 versus the southpaw.
2. Previous meetings - This will be the fifth game between these two teams at Yankee Stadium this season. Three of the previous encounters have seen eight runs or more. 
3. Joey Bats -Toronto's Jose Bautista is batting .359 vs southpaws. Chris Capuano could be in for a rough ride as Bautista comes in hot, going 8-for-15 with three home runs and six RBIs in his last four games.

Selection: This is a free play on the Blue Jays@Yankees to go OVER the total (10*)

The Cubs are coming off back-to-back blowout losses at the hands of the Padres, surrendering a total of 21 runs to the league's worst offense. They host the Cardinals at Wrigley on Friday afternoon, and with a pair of struggling starters on the mound, we are likely to see another high scoring affair.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Travis Wood will be on the hill for the lovable losers, and he's a loser in each of his last three starts. Wood (7-9, 5.12 ERA) was blasted for seven runs on nine hits in just 5 1/3 innings in aloss to the Diamondbacks in his most recent start. Prior to that he allowed seven runs on seven hits over six innings in a home loss to the Braves. He's 2-0 versus the Cardinals this year, but allowed eight runs on 11 hits in those two games. The Cardinals counter with Joe Kelly, who owns a 5.11 ERA in three starts on the road this year.

2. Travis "Handy With The Wood" - With Travis Wood getting the start for the Cubs, Kelly has to think twice about pitching around the #9 hitter to get to the pitcher. Wood is one of a handful of pitchers in the majors capable of hitting one out of the park.

3: X-Factor - Nate Schierholtz has not been fooled by Kelly, going 6-for-13 lifetime against the 26 year old.

Selection: This is a play on the Cardinals@Cubs to go OVER the total (10*)

The Orioles will look to continue their success on the road when they open a new series in Seattle Thursday Night. The Mariners have a pretty poor home record, and after losing back-to-back games to the Mets, they are now 25-28 at Safeco. I've had plenty of success backing Baltimore on this road trip, but I think the best bet is on the under in tonight's game.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Wei-Yin Chen will be on the mound for the Orioles, and he's having himself a career year. Chen (10-3, 4.21 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over five innings, winning his last start on the road in Oakland. He's won three in a row, and he boasts a record of 5-1 in eight starts on the road this year. The Mariners counter with Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off a loss in his most recent start.

2. Nelson Cruz - The Orioles slugger is second in the majors with 28 home runs, but he hasn't gone deep since July 7th.

3. X-Factor - The Mariners have seen a big under trend at home against left-handers, failing to reach the total at a rate of 9-1-2 in their last 12.

Selection: This is a play on Baltimore@Seattle to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Orioles have played well on the road all season long, with a record of 28-21 away from Camden Yards, yet they continue to be a big underdog here in this series versus the Angels. With both teams turning to the top end of the rotation here tonight, we should expect a pitcher's duel in Anaheim.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jered Weaver will toe the slab for the Angels, and he's unbeaten in his last six starts. Weaver (10-6, 3.43 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over six innings in a 3-2 home win over the Mariners in his most recent outing. It was his third straight start that saw the total finish below the number. The Orioles counter with Chris Tillman, who has pitched well in back-to-back losses. Tillman is still undefeated, with a record of 6-0 in 12 starts on the road this season.

2. Nelson Cruz - He's hitting .227 versus Weaver, but he's struck out 20 times with just 15 hits in 60+ at bats.

3. X-Factor - The Orioles won 10-of-13 heading into the All Star break, and one of those three losses came by a one-run margin.

Selection: This is a play on Baltimore@LA to go UNDER the total (10*)

We didn't see a lot of offense in the Bronx last night, with neither team able to score a run until the 13th inning. There is every reason to expect another pitcher's duel at Yankee Stadium here on Wednesday, as the Rangers send ace Yu Darvish to the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Darvish (9-5, 2.88 ERA) had struggled losing back-to-back starts before a dominant performance in Toronto in his last appearance. He allowed just a single run on five hits, striking out a dozen Blue Jays over 6 2/3 innings. He's picked up most of his wins this year on the road, where he is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA over nine starts. The Yankees counter with David Phelps, who has come out of the bullpen to fill a hole in the rotation left by injuries. He's been great at home, going 3-1 with a 2.62 ERA through five starts.

2. Yankees Offense - The Bronx Bombers didn't earn that moniker by ranking 21st in the majors in runs scored, but that is exactly the plight of this current New York lineup.

3. X-Factor - We've seen the total go under at a rate of 5-0-1 in the last six head to head meetings between these two teams.

Selection: This is a play on the Rangers@Yankees to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Rockies were dreadful heading into the break, winning just five times in their final 26 games. They might have a chance to turn things around in Pittsburgh, with what appears to be a favorable match-up in starting pitchers. My money is on the visitors to keep this one close, which should result in enough runs to push the total over the number.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jorge De La Rosa was the starter in three of Colorado's last five wins, and the left-hander has won four straight. De La Rosa is far better at home though than he is on the road. The Pirates counter with Francisco Liriano, who has just a single victory in 15 starts this season. He was lit up by the Reds, allowing three runs on three hits and six walks over just four frames in a 6-3 loss at Cincinnati in his first game back from the DL.

2. Rockies Bats - Colorado boasts the top offense in baseball, leading the majors with a team batting average of .281.

3. X-Factor - Liriano is 0-3 with a 5.98 ERA in eight starts at PNC Park this season.

Selection: This is a play on Colorado@Pittsburgh to go OVER the total (10*)

The Tigers and the Royals will meet in the final game of a four game set in Kansas City Sunday, and Detroit has a chance to complete the sweep. Given the match-up on the mound in this matinee game, we could see a slugfest at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Justin Verlander will get the call for the visitors, and he was booed at home by Tigers fans in his last start. Verlander (8-7, 4.84 ERA) allowed five runs in the first inning, not factoring in the decision of a 14-5 win over the Dodgers. He's had a rough stretch in recent starts, and Kansas City has had his number this year. He's 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in three previous starts versus the Royals. Bruce Chen will start opposite Verlander, and he's struggled in day games, with a record of 1-1 5.86 ERA.

2. Tigers Own Chen - Miguel Cabrera is hitting .410 with five home runs and 11 RBIs in 39 career at bats versus Chen. Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Austin Jackson and Ian Kinsler have also hit him hard.

3. X-Factor - Billy Butler hasn't been fooled by Verlander, hitting .434 with a pair of home runs and 14 RBIs in 76 at bats lifetime.

Selection: This is a play on the Tigers@Royals to go OVER the total (10*)

The Marlins wrap up the first half of the season in New York, and Game 1 of this three game set at Citi Field goes Friday. The Fish have split the first six games of this road trip, and they will like their chances tonight with a red hot pitcher on the mound. I expect to see a pitcher's duel in tonight's series opener, and runs should be few and far between.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Henderson Alvarez will be on the hill for the visitors, and he's undefeated in his last 10 starts. Alvarez (6-3, 2.27 ERA) allowed one run on five hits over seven frames in a win over the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in his latest start. He's 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA during this 10 game unbeaten streak. The Mets counter with 24 year old right-hander Zach Wheeler, who has delivered consecutive quality starts. He's owned the Fish this year, going 1-0 with a 0.49 ERA in three starts.

2. Situational/Motivational - With just a couple of games before the All Star break, we are already seeing managers take the opportunity to rest star players. A couple of teams that are not post-season contenders, should just be going through the motions here.

3. X-Factor - Giancarlo Stanton is just 1-for-10 with three strikeouts lifetime versus Wheeler.

Selection: This is a play on the Marlins@Mets to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Pirates have lost three straight in St. Louis, and they will wrap up this series at Busch Stadium on Thursday night. With both teams turning to the back end of their rotation, we don't expect a pitcher's duel here tonight. I expect to see enough offense to push the number over the total.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Shelby Miller will be on the hill for the Cardinals, and he's lost four straight starts. Miller (7-7, 4.15 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits over just 5 1/3 innings in a 6-5 home loss to Miami his last time out. He's surrendered 16 runs over 19 innings during this four game skid. The Pirates counter with Edinson Volquez, and he's been far better at home than he has been on the road. Volquez is 2-4 with a 4.21 ERA in six starts on the road this year.

2. Cardinals Own Volquez - Allen Craig is hitting .417 with 4 RBIs, while Jhonny Peralta is hitting .429 with a pair of home runs in past meetings with Volquez. Matt Holliday is batting .370 with a pair of homers and five RBIs in 27 career at bats off the right-hander.

3. X-Factor - While the big bats in the St. Louis lineup have owned Volquez, he will also have to be wary of Kolton Wong, who has homered three times in the last four days.

Selection: This is a play on the Pirates@Cardinals to go OVER the total (10*)

The Tigers beat up on Eric Bedard Thursday, taking Game 1 of this series by a score of 8-1. Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter and Ian Kinsler all went deep for the Tigers, while Max Sherzer silenced the Rays. Tampa might have a better chance of scoring a few runs here in Game 2, and I'm expecting this one to be a high scoring affair.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Alex Cobb will be on the hill for the visitors, and it's been a tough season for the 26 year old. Cobb (3-6, 4.20 ERA) surrendered four runs on eight hits over five frames in a win over Baltimore in his most recent start. His numbers are not good under the lights, with a record of 1-4, 6.59 ERA in five starts at night. The Tigers counter with Drew Smyly, who exited after just two innings in his latest start, and has been bothered by a respiratory infection.

2. Tigers Power - Detroit ranks second in the majors batting .276, and they are also second in slugging percentage (.440).

3. X-Factor - Alex Avila is 4-for-7 lifetime, while Torri Hunter is 6-for-13 versus Cobb.

Selection: This is a play on TB@DET to go OVER the total (10*)

The San Francisco Giants have lost six of eight on this current home stand, and they now find themselves in a heated battle with the Dodgers who trail by just a half game in the NL West. After splitting the first two games of this series versus St. Louis, the Giants appear to have the advantage heading into the rubber match.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Madison Bumgarner will get the call for the home team, and he's looking for his 10th win of the season. Bumgarner (9-5, 2.90 ERA) surrendered five runs on nine hits over six innings in a home loss to the Reds in his most recent start. He doesn't have good numbers at home this season, going 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA in eight starts. The Cardinals hand the ball to 22 year old Carlos Martinez, who comes out of the bullpen to make just his fourth start so far.

2. Home Cookin' - Martinez has been better at home, going  0-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 17 appearances on the road.

3. X-Factor - Pablo Sandoval has hit 10 home runs and has 36 RBIs this season, seven of those homers and 22 of his RBIs have come at AT&T Park.

Selection: This is a play on STL@SF to go OVER the total (10*)

David Price is rumored to be on the way out of Tampa Bay, so each time he takes the mound it could be his final start in a Rays uniform. He's scheduled to start Tuesday as the Rays take on the Yankees in Game 2 of this series in the Bronx. I don't expect to see a lot of scoring in this game, with a pair of top knotch pitchers facing off.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Price hasn't let the trade rumors affect his performance on the mound, he's coming off four consecutive starts going at least eight innings and striking out 10 or more. The Yankees counter with Hiroki Kuyroda, who has been very good of late. Kuroda (5-5, 4.23 ERA) has given the Yankees quality starts in four of his last five outings.

2. Bronx Bombers? - The nickname has been a suitable one over the years, but it doesn't accurately describe the Yankees this season. New York ranks in the bottom half in all major offensive categories.

3. X-Factor - Carlos Beltran has been bothered by a sore forearm, and he's hitting just .219 on the season. He's batting .167 lifetime versus Price.

Selection: This is a play on the Rays@NYY to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Baltimore Orioles will host Texas in the opening game of a four game set at Camden Yards Monday. Texas is struggling, with just a pair of wins over it's last 11 games.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Joe Saunders will get the call for Texas, and he's been roughed up pretty bad lately. Saunders (0-4, 5.19 ERA) surrendered six runs on seven hits and five walks in just four innings, losing to the Tigers his last time out. The Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed two runs on less in four of his last six start. Jimenez is still winless at home this season, but the Orioles won at home over the White Sox by a score of 5-4 in his last start, a no decision.

2. The Long Ball - The Orioles lead the major leagues with 42 home runs, 25 of those coming off the bat of Nelson Cruz. He's hit a pair of homers in his previous encounters with Saunders.

3. X-Factor - Adrian Beltre is hitting .400 in 20 career at bats versus Jimenez, and he's batting .385 with 15 RBIs over his last 20 games.

Selection: This is a play on Texas@Baltimore to go OVER the total (10*)

We've seen a couple of high scoring tilts here in Miami in the first tow games of this series between the A's and the Fish, and there's every reason to expect another slugfest here at Marlins Park Sunday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Tommy Milone will go for the visitors, and he was lit up by the Red Sox in his last start. Milone (5-3, 3.89 ERA) allowed five runs on eight hits through just five frames in a 7-6 loss to Boston. He's surrendered five home runs in his last four starts. Miami will counter with rookie Andy Heaney, making just his third big league start. The rookie was tagged for five runs on four hits and two walks through five innings in a loss to the Phillies his last time out.

2. Home Cookin' - Giancarlo Stanton is an absolute beat with the bat, leading the NL in home runs as well as RBIs. The majority of his success comes at home, where he's picked up 42 of his 60 RBIs.

3. Park Factor - We've seen seven of the last 11 games at Marlins Park go over the total.

Selection: This is a play on OAK@MIA to go OVER the total (10*)

The Brewers bats exploded for nine runs last night, chasing Stephen Strasburh from the game after just four innings. Milwaukee will welcome the Colorado Rockies to town Thursday, and with two of baseball's best offenses, we can expect to see some fireworks.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rockies will send rookie Christian Friedrich into the fire here at Miller Park, and the 26 year old got hit hard in his season debut. Friedrich, allowed nine runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings of work in a 9-4 loss to St. Louis. The Brewers will counter with Wily Peralta, who has surrendered at least three runs in four of his last five starts.

2. Offense - The Brewers rank 5th overall in runs scored, while the Rockies lead MLB in the categories of batting average, on base percentage as well as slugging percentage.

3. X-Factor - Peralta is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts versus the Rockies since 2011.

Selection: This is a play on the Rockies/Brewers to go OVER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays won 2-of-3 at home versus the Yankees, and both victories were high scoring tilts. Hiroki Kuroda managed to quiet Toronto's bats last night, but we should expect to see more offense tonight, with the Jays hosting the White Sox in the first game of a four game series.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The White Sox will send relief pitcher Scott Carroll to the mound, making his sixth start of the season. He hasn't impressed, winless on the road with an ERA of 4.70 in five appearances. The Jays counter with J.A. Happ, who looks as though he's fallen apart. Happ allowed eight runs on seven hits and four walks over just four innings in an 11-1 loss to Cincinnati his last time out.

2. Heavy Hitters - These are two of the heaviest hitting teams in the majors, both boasting a slugging percentage above .400.

3. X-Factor - Jose Bautista has been resting a sore hamstring, but manager John Gibbons said he could come off the bench in last night's game if necessary. Expect to see Bautista at some point tonight.

Selection: This is a play on Chicago/Toronto to go OVER the total (10*)

Clayton Kershaw followed up his no-hitter by defeating the Royals in a 2-0 pitcher's duel at Kauffman Stadium last night. We can likely expect another low scoring affair in the series finale Wednesday, with Dan Haren starting opposite Royal's ace James Shields.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Shields (8-3, 3.70 ERA) allowed five runs on nine hits over seven frames in a loss to Seattle in his last start. Prior to that he was undefeated, going 5-0 during an eight-game unbeaten streak. Dan Haren has been very solid for the Dodgers, and he has stellar numbers under the lights. The veteran is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 starts at night this season.

2. Royals Slumping Offense - Kansas City has lost five of it's last six overall, scoring a total of just eight runs in those six losses.

3. X-Factor - Yasiel Puig has cooled off at the plate, going just 2-for-18 on this road trip so far.

Selection: This is a play on the Dodgers/Royals to go UNDER the total.

The Marlins came up short in yesterday's series opener with the Mets, failing to score in a 1-0 ballgame. They look to bounce back in Game 2 with Henderson Alvarez on the hill, and the right-hander is undefeated in his last six starts. One of those wins was a complete game shutout win over Tampa.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - While Alvarez has been hot for the Fish, Matsuzaka has yet to lose for the Mets. He's allowed a total of one run on four hits over eight innings in his last three outings. He allowed just one run on two hits over seven innings in a win over Miami the last time he faced them, which was his only meeting with the Fish last year.

2. Mets Can't Hit - New York's lineup doesn't strike fear into opposing pitchers, ranking 24th overall in the majors in runs scored, while only the Padres hit for a lower average.

3. X-Factor - Alvarez has seen the total go under in each of his last four home starts.

Selection: This is a play on NYM/Miami to go UNDER the total (10*)

It was another slugfest at Chase Field last night, with the Brewers winning by a score of 7-5. Arizona will look to avoid a sweep in the series finale tonight, and we are likely to see another high scoring tilt between these two teams in this hitter's park.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Matt Garza will start for the Brewers, and he's struggled away from Miller Park. Garza (4-4, 4.17 ERA) was roughed up at home in his most recent start, giving up five runs on seven hits in loss to Cincinnati. He is just 1-2 with a 6.21 ERA on the road this season. Wade Miley will go for Arizona, and he's had a poor season personally, while the D'Backs staff ranks last in the majors.

2: Park Factor - Known to be a hitter's park, we've seen plenty of runs scored at Chase Field lately. These two teams have tallied 24 runs total in the first two games of this series.

3: X-Factor - The Brewers have been a good bet to go over, with the total going above the number at a rate of 18-7-2 in their last 27 overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Brewers/D'Backs to go OVER the total (10*)

The Phillies were shutout in a 3-0 loss to the Cubs yesterday, and it's unlikely that they will fare much better on the road in Atlanta on Monday night. This team has already packed it in, going through the motions in another disastrous season. Already there are trade talks swirling the clubhouse, as the salary dump is inevitable.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Julio Teheran was roughed up in Colorado his last time out, but he should bounce back at home where he is 2-1 with a 1.24 ERA this season. He pitched a complete game shutout in his only previous meeting with Philly this year. The Phillies hand the ball to Cole Hamels, who is coming off his best start of the season so far. Let's not get too excited about a win over the Padres though.

2: Home Cookin' - The Phillies have lost five of their last six on the road, and the Braves have won seven of Teheran's last eight home starts.

3: Offense - The Braves rank 28th overall in the majors in runs scored, and Philly isn't much better ranking 24th.

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies/Braves to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Royals are red hot, winners of seven in a row. They scored 22 runs in a three game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago over the weekend, but they have to face Tigers ace Justin Verlander here on Monday. With the Royals swinging the bats well, we could see a few runs scored here in Detroit tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Verlander (6-6, 4.61 ERA) was lit up by the White Sox, giving up seven runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings, losing his last start. It was the same story in his prior outing, giving up six runs on eight hits in a home loss to Toronto. Meanwhile, Jason Vargas is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts versus the Tigers this year.

2: Tigers Bullpen - Detroit relievers own the worst ERA in the major leagues at 4.83.

3: X-Factor - Salvador Perez hit a home run yesterday against the White Sox, and he's owned Verlander, hitting .444 with 10 RBIs in 27 career at bats.

Selection: This is a play on the Royals/Tigers to go OVER the total (10*)

The Mariners struggles at home continued on Friday, as Felix Hernandez tossed a gem, allowing a lone run on four hits over 8 1/3 innings, only to lose 1-0. Seattle will hope for more run support for their other ace, as Hisashi Iwakuma takes the mound tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Iwakuma (4-3, 2.79 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits through 7 1/3 frames in a 3-2 loss to the Yankees in his most recent outing. He allowed a pair of runs on six hits over eight innings in a win over Texas earlier this season. The Rangers send Nick Martinez to the mound, and while he's struggled, he should get a boost from pitching to a poor offense in a pitcher's park.

2: Mariners Offense - Seattle is hitting just .235, the worst average in the American League. They have scored three runs or less in all five games on this current home stand.

3: X-Factor - Nick Martinez has been sharp in day games, with a record of 1-0, 2.79 ERA in four starts in the afternoon this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Rangers/Mariners UNDER (10*)

The Padres have lost four straight, and two of those losses were shutouts. San Diego will look to turn things around tonight with it's ace on the mound, but they'll need to get him some runs. I like the under here in New York with a pair of quality pitchers in park that doesn't produce a lot of runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Andrew Cashner (2-5, 2.13 ERA) tossed six scoreless frames, giving up just two hits in a win over the Nats in his most recent outing. He's seen the under trend at a rate of 7-2-1 over his last 10 starts. Veteran Bartolo Colon will go for the Mets, and he's 2-2, with a 2.20 ERA at home this season. His most recent home start saw him toss 7 1/3 scoreless innings.

2. Offense - The Padres rank last in the majors in each and every offensive category. New York isn't much better, as only San Diego has a lower batting average than these Mets.

3. X-Factor - The Padres have played a lot of low scoring games on the road, with the total going under in 19 of their last 27 away from Petco.

Selection: This is a play on the Padres/Mets to go UNDER (10*)

The Orioles were on the wrong side of an 11-1 blowout at Camden Yards Sunday, and they'll have their hands full once again as they host the Red Sox in Game 1 of a new series at home on Monday. Given the scheduled starters in a this hitter's park, we should see another slugfest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Bud Norris will be the starter for the O's, and he's allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts. The Red Sox roughed him up pretty good already this year, as he surrendered four runs on five hits and two walks in a loss at Fenway. Jake Peavy has had his own struggles, and Boston has lost four of his last five starts, with the veteran allowing at least five runs in all four of those losses.

2: Park Factor - The over has trended at a rate of 6-2-2 in the Orioles last 10 home games. Camden Yards has a much lower score in 2014, after ranking 4th overall last year. Expect a major correction during the rest of the summer, with warmer air in Baltimore.

3: X-Factor - Big Papi won the game for the Red Sox with a three-run blast in Detroit last night. Ortiz is 3-for-9 with a home run against Norris.

Selection: This is a play on Boston/Baltimore Over (10*)

Washington was my free play yesterday and considering they won 7-0, I see no reason not to up the ante tonight.  Not only do I like the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg to win this game, but I expect it to go Over as well.  Last night's game stayed Under by one-half run, but the number is lower.  I don't think we'll need much help from the Phillies offense either. Philadelphia has the worst record in the National League since May 4th at 9-18 and has lost five of its last six after a bad weekend experience at home vs. the Mets.  Manager Ryne Sandberg hasn't impressed me much at all.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1.  AJ Burnett - Things don't look too good for the Phillies starter in this matchup, considering a 6.30 ERA his last five starts.  He had six walks and gave up five runs in his last start and has allowed 24 runs in his last 30 innings of work.   Washington is averaging 6.5 runs/game its last four and that's even after being shutout on Sunday.

2.   Return of Zimmerman - Remember this key from yesterday's free play?  Zimmerman had missed almost two months with a thumb injury, but returned by going 2 for 4 with a run batted in.  He's likely to be in left field again tonight, but it's at the plate where his return makes the biggest difference.  In 10 games, Zimmerman was batting .364 and had two homers before the injury.

3. X-Factor -  Over Philadelphia's last nine games, only once has there been less than seven total runs scored.  

Selection:  The play is on Over Philadelphia-Washington (10*)

I'm taking the Over tonight as St. Louis looks to get something going offensively against in-state foe Kansas City.  The Cardinals were shutout for a second straight game Monday (Sunday by the Giants) as the Royals came in and took the opener 6-0 thanks in large part to a quality start from left-handed Danny Duffy.   Thankfully for the home team they are a lot more prolific when facing righties, so even thought its James Shields pitching tonight for the visitors, St. Louis should put some runs on the board.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.   Shields - Surprisingly, the Over is 7-1 his last eight starts.   Part of that is because he's been the only Royals pitcher to consistently get good run support, but also he did give up six runs in his last start, a season-high.  Over his last three starts, he's allowed a total of 13 runs, leading to a 5.85 ERA and 1.450 WHIP.

2.  Jaime Garcia - Similarly, the Over is 3-0 in starts made by the pitcher who will be on the mound tonight for St. Louis.  He's already allowed four home runs.  The Cardinals are also 17-11-1 Over at home this season.

3.   X-Factor -  Keep an eye on the Royals base-stealing prowess.  They are the American League leaders in that category with 48 after leading all of baseball last year with 153.   They have 20 stolen bases in the last 14 games alone.  The obvious reason to keep an eye on this is because stolen bases lead to more runners getting in scoring position.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Kansas City-St. Louis (10*)

I'm taking the Over in tonight's Pittsburgh at San Diego game.  Fun fact:  This is the only regularly scheduled National League game on the slate for Monday.   The Over worked for me last night in the Pirates' 5-3 win over the Dodgers as I was lucky the home team tacked on what was essentially a meaningless run in the bottom of the ninth inning.  Thus, I'll come back and play things the same way here.  The Padres have a major question mark going today in starter Tim Stauffer.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Stauffer - This will be his third start.  After the first one probably couldn't have gone any better, the last one definitely couldn't have been any worse as he allowed seven runs while failing to make it out of the first inning.   Tonight's performance should end up somewhere in the middle, but that should still be enough to allow the game to go Over.  Both previous starts, an 11-1 win and a 12-6 loss, easily went Over.

2.  Morton on the Road - The Pirates will go with Charlie Morton as their starter tonight.  He simply is not very good on the road.   He's winless this year when not pitching an PNC Park and has allowed 20 runs in his last 30 innings pitched away from home.  

3. X-Factor - Before running into Chris Sale yesterday, San Diego had scored 23 runs and had 52 hits its previous five games. For Pittsburgh, scoring five times in a game where the Dodgers started Clayton Kershaw is pretty impressive as well.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-San Diego (10*)

Admittedly, taking an Over when Zack Greinke is pitching seems a little bit odd.  After all, he's gone 23 straight starts without allowing more than three runs.  But prior to his last start, he hadn't allowed more than two in 22 straight starts, so there's always a first time for everything.  Also, even if he does give up only 2-3 runs here, you have to think Pirates starter Edinson Volquez will give up a lot more to a Dodgers offense that scored 12 runs in a big win yesterday.   

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  An Over Pitcher - Although Greinke's numbers are impressive, you might be surprised to learn that the Over is actually 7-4 in his 11 starts this season.   The Over has cashed in his last two starts.   He typically gets pretty good run support and remember that he's unlikely to go the distance (only once has he pitched 8 full innings), which means the bullpen could always give up additional runs.

2. Volquez -  Interestingly, the Under is actually 8-2 for him in 10 starts.  But this is also because the total is almost always higher than it is here.  There have been three times where he's allowed five runs or more.  He has a 5.40 ERA on the road.

3.  X-Factor -  Pittsburgh had 11 hits yesterday, so it's not as if they were quiet at the plate.  They simply failed to come through when they had runners in scoring position.  Consider that the Dodgers only had three more hits, but scored 10 more runs.  The scoring is likely to be more balanced tonight.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-LA Dodgers (10*)

While I like the Under in Kansas City-Toronto, I like the Over for Baltimore-Houston tonight.  The Astros come back home on their longest win streak of the season as they taken five in a row, including a sweep of the Royals in Kansas City.   They have a number of hot hitters in their lineup, which should match up well this weekend against a struggling Orioles starting rotation that sends out Ubaldo Jimenez for the series opener.  For Houston, Brad Peacock isn't likely to be much better as his numbers are almost identical and he's won just once in eight starts.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Hot Houston Hitting -  Two players bear mentioning here, the first being George Springer, a rookie who has hit six home runs in his last six games and is batting .405 the last 10 games.  Jose Altuve is batting .400 over his last 20 games, reaching base safely in 19 of them.  The team has scored 34 times while collecting 61 hits during its five-game win streak.  Three times they have scored nine runs on their own.

2. Weak Starting Pitching - Baltimore's starting rotation has been bad all around the last 10 games with an 8.06 ERA. Only once during that time has a starter gone more than six innings.  It wasn't Jimenez, who lasted just four in his last start and gave up five runs in a 9-0 loss to Cleveland.  He has allowed at least four runs six times already this season.  For Houston, Peacock has a 4.58 ERA and 1.556 WHIP and has pitched worse at home than on the road.

3.  X-Factor -  Baltimore has a hot hitter of its own right now in Nelson Cruz, who leads MLB in home runs with 19 for the year and he's slugging a ridiculous 1.000 the last 14 games.

Selection:   The play is Over Baltimore-Houston (10*)

I like the Under in Thursday's opener between Kansas City and Toronto.  These have certainly been two clubs trending in opposite directions of late.  The Royals inability to find any kind of consistent hitting resulted in them getting swept at home by Houston.  Overall, the team has lost five of six.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won nine in a row to take control in the American League East.   We have two quality starting pitchers on the mound tonight - James Shields for Kansas City and RA Dickey for Toronto - and they should keep the scoring down.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Dickey vs. KC - The knuckleballer's overall numbers aren't that spectacular, but facing this weak-hitting Royals lineup should definitely be to his benefit.  The Royals have scored three runs or less in four straight and are last in MLB in home runs and slugging percentage.  Dickey has also gotten better as the season has progressed.  In his last start, his best of the year, he allowed just 2 runs and 5 hits in 8 1/3 innings of work.  He's now 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA his last six starts.

2.  Shields - Going back to his time in Tampa Bay, the Royals ace has been very good against Toronto throughout his career.  In his last eight starts against them, he's 6-1 with a 1.13 ERA.   No other pitcher with at least five starts since 2011 against the Blue Jays has a better earned run average.  Twice he's gone the distance here at Rogers Centre.  He's allowed two earned runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts this season.

3. X-Factor - These two starters faced off against one another last year and the result was a 3-2 final.  Five of the six games played between these two teams went Under in 2013.

Selection:  The play is Under Kansas City-Toronto (10*)

I like the Under on Sunday Night Baseball as we should get a pitchers duel between Adam Wainwright for St. Louis and Mike Leake for Cincinnati.  Both come in having pitched very well all season long, Wainwright in particular.  After the first two games of this series both found a way to sneak Over the total, this one shouldn't feature many runs.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Wainwright - He is coming off a career best outing where he allowed only one hit in a complete game effort.   His 1.85 ERA ranks right near the top of the National League and he's allowed two runs or less in all but two of his starts this year.  Over his last three starts, he has a 1.17 ERA and a 0.696 WHIP.  Of the 10 times he's pitched this season, the opponent has not scored a single run in five of those games!

2.  Leake -  Despite being winless over his last six starts, it's not like he's pitched poorly.  His ERA is 2.89 going back to April 15th and over his last four starts, it's 1.89.  He's allowed just one run in each of his last two starts and four of his last five have stayed Under the total.

3.  X-Factor -  The reason for Leake not having more victories is the fact Cincinnati never seems to score for him.  In each of his last five starts, they've failed to score more than four runs for the entire game.

Selection:  The play is Under St. Louis-Cincinnati (10*)

I like the Over tonight as the Mets and Dodgers open this three-game series.  While the home side has been struggling big time at the plate and is going against Josh Beckett, the total is just too low for a pair of teams that more often than not are capable of giving up a lot of runs.  Twice in the last four games, the Dodgers have allowed 13 or more runs.   The Mets are 5-2-1 Over the last eight games despite their lack of hitting.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Raul Montero  -  In his first start, Montero allowed two home runs, which cost him in a 4-0 loss to Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees.  There were reports that he was tipping his pitches, which isn't a good sign going forward, especially against a Top 10 offense like the Dodgers.

2.   Dodgers When Favored - When favored on the money line, the Dodgers are 21-12-1 Over this season.

3. X-Factor -   When you get past Beckett, you have a Dodgers' bullpen that has been very poor on the road this season.  They have a 5.47 ERA and 1.740 WHIP.   They've blown three saves in 11 chances and are allowing more than two runs per appearance.   Brian Wilson should be singled out for specific blame.

Selection:   The play is Over Los Angeles-New York (10*)

This is an Over play for Mets-Nationals this afternoon.  Yesterday's game was a 5-2 final in favor of Washington, so we'll need just one more run today to make this a winning bet.  Fortunately, I don't think Saturday's starting pitching matchup is as strong, plus at least the Mets were able to put runs on the board yesterday.  Prior to scoring two times in the top of the fifth, they had gone 22 consecutive innings without a runner crossing the plate.  Overall, it was their ninth straight loss to Washington.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Bartolo Colon - Making the Mets' job even tougher today is the fact they have Colon on the hill.  In eight starts, his ERA is 5.84 and things have only progressively gotten worse.  He's allowed seven runs in two of his last three starts, including the last one, which was against the Yankees.  He's already given up eight home runs this season, including a grand slam vs. the Yankees.  All of last year, Colon allowed just 14 home runs.

2.  Dominance over the Mets - As I mentioned before, Washington has now won nine in a row vs. the Mets.  They have scored 58 runs in those nine wins, which works out to roughly 6.5 per game.  All we need is SOMETHING from the Mets in this game in order for the Over to cash.

3.  X-Factor - Gio Gonzalez has not looked good his last four starts with a 5.16 ERA.  He lasted only 4 1/3 in his last start, giving up seven runs and nine hits.

Selection:  The play is Over New York-Washington (10*)

I like the Over this afternoon as Atlanta takes on St. Louis.  Yesterday's game was 5-2 in favor of the Cardinals and we'll need one more run scored today to make this a winning bet.  Given the way the Braves have been scoring, or should I say haven't been scoring, lately, that run would likely need to come from the home team.   I think they'll have their chances against Atlanta starter Harang, who was shelled the last time he started on the road.  Yesterday saw them score five runs, the first time since August of last year that Ervin Santana had allowed that many.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Control Issues -  The Cardinals will go with Shelby Miller in this game and if there has been one problem with him all year, it's been walking batters.  In every start this year, but one, he has walked at least three batters.  Ironically, that one start was against Harang and Atlanta.  But the fact remains that Miller's walk rate of 5.4 per nine innings remains the worst in all of baseball.  Overall, he has 27 BB's in 8 starts.   That's a big reason for his poor WHIP and the Braves should have some added opportunities for baserunners in this game.

2.  Harang On the Road - His last start outside of Turner Field was a disaster as he allowed 9 runs and 10 hits in less than five innings of work.  He does not have a strong history against the Cardinals with his 14 career losses the most against any one opponent.

3. X-Factor -   Miller is typically not lasting very long in his starts, averaging just 5 2/3 innings.  That's a problem for many reasons, one of them that St. Louis' bullpen has an ERA north of 4.00.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Atlanta-St. Louis (10*)

I like the Under tonight as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks renew pleasantries.  While its true that Arizona's pitching staff has stunk most of the year, they've gotten substantially better after a dreadful April and the Dodgers just aren't hitting much right now.   Los Angeles will rely on Zack Greinke, who of course is very good and I expect him to have little difficulty in facing this Diamondbacks' lineup.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Greinke -  Through eight starts, he has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.147 WHIP.   The most runs he's allowed in any start is two.  That obviously gives us alot to work with here.  If we go back to the end of last season, he has gone 20 consecutive starts where he's allowed three runs or less.  That's a record in the post "dead ball" era.   Greinke has started twice against Arizona this year, giving up just 2 runs in more than 11 innings of work and the last five times he's faced them have seen the Diamonbacks hit just .188 as Greinke's ERA is 1.72.   

2.  Arizona Offense - Scoring just four runs the last two games, its not like the Diamonbacks are doing much at the plate recently.  The Under has cashed in 4 of their last 5 games.

3.  X-Factor -  This will be the 9th meeting of the year between these National League West rivals.   Arizona has lost all five at home and overall the Dodgers' starting rotation has gone 6-0, posting a 1.50 ERA.

Selection:  This is a Under play on Los Angeles-Arizona (10*)

The Mets and Yankees went Over in yesterday's opener with the road team winning 9-7.  Regardless of who wins tonight, I'll be anticipating a similar score as the Mets are hitting all of a sudden and the Yankees have collected double digit hits in four of their last five games as well.   The Mets have now gone Over in three straight games while the Yankees have done them two better at five straight.  Only one of those didn't see at least nine total runs scored.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Mets' Heating Up at the Plate - In their last two games, the Mets have collected 30 hits, including a season-high 16 on Sunday.  Five of those were home runs - four of them coming last night - and another five were doubles.  They shouldn't have too much to worry about tonight going up against Vidal Nuno, who has a 7.00 ERA in two home starts.

2.  Yankees Too - The Bronx Bombers have scored no fewer than four runs in any of their last six.  They are averaging 5.0 the last seven.  Mets' starter Zach Wheeler comes in with a 5.06 ERA in four road starts this season, a number that came down after his last start despite it being a loss.   

3. X-Factor -   The Mets have scored 21 runs total in their last three games at Yankees Stadium.  

Selection:  This is an Over play on Mets-Yankees (10*)

These teams have combined to score eight and nine runs respectively in the first two games of this series and I'll call for even more scoring as they finish things up at Miller Park this afternoon.  Given the Brewers surprising start, it's pretty amazing to find that they are only scoring 3.2 runs/game at home with a .226 batting average.  Then again, they do have a better record on the road.   However, they were able to pound out 10 hits in Saturday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, who have now gone Over in three straight games.  Take the Over here too.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Matt Garza - Today's starting pitcher from the Brewers seems to think he's better than he actually is.  Over his last three starts, he has an ERA of 5.62.  That has a lot to do with allowing five runs in just three innings at St. Louis on April 30th.  He's been much better at home this year, but his career numbers vs. the Yankees are not very good.  Before tossing a quality start against them last year, he had an ERA of 4.78 his previous nine times facing the Pinstripes.

2.  David Phelps -  The Yankees started was better than expected filling in for the suspended Michael Pineda against the Angels on Monday.  But as a starter his ERA is 4.28 lifetime, so I wouldn't be counting on a similar performance today.

3.  X-Factor -  On the road, the Yankees allow 4.6 runs/game.  This has a lot to do with a bullpen that has a 4.44 ERA away from home.

Selection:  This is an Over play on New York-Milwaukee (10*)

The Tigers are a hot team right now, winners of seven straight to be exact, and scored 11 runs yesterday in a rout of the Houston Astros.  I don't see any reason why once again they can't send this game Over the total again by themselves.  (I'd like to take Detroit to win this game obviously, but with the money line being so high, the risk doesn't outweigh the reward).   Astros starter Brad Peacock has a penchant for giving up unearned runs due to the highest walk rate per nine innings among qualifying pitchers.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Tigers' Offensive Surge - Since April 29th, the team is averaging a strong 6.9 runs/game. They've scored eight or more runs in four of the last five games, peaking with yesterday's output where they had 18 hits.  They've recorded at least 12 hits in four of the last five games as well.   Miguel Cabrera has led the way with a .396 batting average and 1.041 OPS the last 12 games following an uncharacteristic slow start to the season.  

2.  Astros Pitching - Bad enough is the fact Peacock is walking an average of seven batters per nine innings.   But the Houston bullpen is also a mess right now with a MLB worst 6.24 ERA having allowed 15 runs over its last 11 innings of work.  

3. X-Factor -  The Tigers have averaged greater than seven runs/game against the Astros since Houston became an American League team.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Houston-Detroit (10*).

This likely will not end up being a pleasant series for an already beleaguered Arizona pitching staff which has given up the most runs in all of baseball.  The Diamondbacks got a bit of a reprieve over the weekend when they faced off against the worst offensive team in all of baseball, the San Diego Padres.  But the league leading Brewers will take no mercy on them.  After scoring three runs or less in five straight games, Milwaukee should get its offense back on track.  Arizona should also be able to score some runs tonight, thus I look for the game to go Over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Matt Garza - The Brewers' starting pitcher recently claimed that playing for the Cubs cost him about 30 wins.  That's laughable and I wonder what excuse(s) he will start coming up with now that he's 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA this year for a first place team.  He allowed five runs in three innings in his last start at St. Louis. He's now allowed at least four runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.

2.  Mike Bolsinger - I have little confidence in either of tonight's starters as for Arizona we have Bolsinger, who has twice allowed four or more runs while going five innings or less in just three starts.   His ERA and WHIP is even worse than that of Garza.

3. X-Factor:  Because of the woeful pitching, Arizona is 20-11-3 Over in all games this season.

Selection:    This is an Over play on Arizona-Milwaukee (10*).

Thanks to the bullpen, the Dodgers lost yesterday's series opener to the Giants, 3-2 in 12 innings.  Though there wasn't much scoring, both teams had 12 hits.  So I'm going to call for a much higher scoring affair Tuesday night.  Both starting pitchers come in with earned run averages above 8.00.  Three times last night these teams left the bases loaded.  The Giants have one of the better offenses in the National League (5.1 runs/game) and have been a big winner for Over bettors so far this season.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Starter Struggles -  The Giants are going with Ryan Vogelsong this evening.  There was some minor improvement in his second start of the season, but that's only because he was so bad in the first and that was against the Dodgers.  Vogelsong lasted only four innings that time out and gave up two home runs.  He lasted one more inning against Arizona on Thursday, but again gave up four runs on seven hits.  His ERA is 8.00 and his WHIP is 1.889.  LA's starter Paul Maholm has made just one start, and it was against San Francisco. It didn't go well as he allowed five runs over 4 1/3 innings.

2.  Maholm at AT&T - San Francisco has not been one of Maholm's favorite places to pitch. He's 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA in six career starts here.  

3.  X-Factor - The Giants have gone Over in 11 of 14 games this season.  While they've gone Under in two of their past three, they have yet to go Under in back to back games all season.  Look for that trend to continue.  

Selection:  This is an Over play for LA Dodgers-SF Giants (10*).

After allowing six or more runs in six of seven games, Twins pitching made a major rebound over the weekend against Kansas City, but I don't look for that to last.  Toronto's lineup facing Phil Hughes could put this game over on its own, but when you also factor in the fact Minnesota scored 21 runs themselves in the three games vs. the Royals, you get the feeling that we could have a game similar to yesterday's Pirates-Reds slugfest (hopefully minus the rain).   Go with the Over in this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Hughes - It has not been a good start for him in Minnesota.  He has failed to last longer than five innings in either of his two outings and both times allowed four runs.  Both of those games went way Over the total too as there 30 combined runs have been scored.  Having a career ERA north of 5.00 vs. Toronto doesn't help either.  Look for Hughes to give up plenty of runs again tonight.  

2. Plenty of Ammo  - Toronto had season highs in runs (11) and hits (17) in their last game as they took the series from Baltimore.  Minnesota is actually #4 in all of baseball right now as they've scored 67 times, but they are still barely outscoring opponents, 5.6 to 5.3 per game.  With an average of over 10 runs scored in their games, Over is the way to go with the Twins.

3. X-Factor -  While he missed much of 2013 due to injury, Brandon Morrow comes into this game on an incredible Over streak.  His last nine starts have all gone Over with at least nine runs scored in every game.   The average number of runs scored in those contests is 12.5!

Selection:    This is an Over play on Toronto-Minnesota (10*)