The set-up: While Ivan Nova hasn’t had a great overall season for the White Sox, he’s been a bit better of late. Kyle Gibson though is a big reason why his team will be in the postseason this year. Admittedly neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but I still believe this number is high.

The pitchers: Nova (8-9, 4.51 ERA) has actually won four of his last five stars and he enters off a 4-1 complete-game effort over the hard-hitting Astros on Tuesday, allowing four hits and one unearned run. Over his last two starts Nova has conceded nine hits, three walks and an unearned run. 

Gibson (11-5, 4.28) gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. 

The pick: Note that Nova is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Twins as well, while Gibson is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the White Sox. Expect these two hungry starters to battle deep.

10* TOTAL OF WEEK on under White Sox/Twins.

The set-up: Two hungry teams face off against two hungry starters and in my opinion, it’s going to be these capable hurlers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side goes with Julio Teheran.

The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 3.20 ERA) has faced the Braves twice and he’s gone 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs and struck out nine over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday.

Teheran (7-7, 3.35) enters on top form, going 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Atlanta has won the first two games of this series and all signs point to a battle in the finale as well. This number is high, play the under.

Atlanta Braves/NY Mets UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Considering the talent level between the starting pitchers this evening, I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. Boston goes with ace Chris Sale, while Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger. 

The pitchers: Sale (6-11, 4.41 ERA) enters on top form, having struck out 13 over eight scoreless in a win over the Angels on Thursday. 

Clevinger (7-2, 3.02) most recently allowed two runs over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Twins on Thursday.

The pick: Boston will essentially have to run the table now at any shot of defending its crown. One game at a time I guess. But after last night’s 6-5 Indians win, I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a “duel” this evening. This number is a little high. 

Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Cincinnati lost 6-3 to the Reds on Sunday afternoon, while Washington pulled away for a 7-4 victory at the Mets. For a number of different reasons though, I think that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani, while the home side goes with Erik Fedde.

The pitchers: DeSclafani (7-6, 4.20 ERA) gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. Previous to that start though he’d allowed three or fewer earned runs over a seven outing stretch (note that he’s a solid 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA in all night games.) 

Fedde (2-2, 4.20) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Giants last Monday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here, going six scoreless vs. the Giants. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between 10 and 10.5, while the Nationals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten home games when the total falls in the same range. This number is high.

Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals UNDER 10* play

The set-up: This is the rubber match of a three-game series and I believe that because of the level of competency on the mound between the starting pitchers tonight, that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito. 

The pitchers: Bassitt (7-5, 3.80 ERA) has posted back-to-back quality starts, but has earned a no-decision each time for his effort. Clearly Bassitt won’t be lacking for motivation here. 

Giolito (12-5, 3.44) snapped a five start winless skid with a quality start and victory over Detroit on Monday. 

The pick: Note that in three career starts vs. the White Sox, Bassitt has walked five and struck out 15 spanning 17 innings. Giolito earned a win over the A’s in his only start vs. them, allowing four runs over eight innings. With each of these competent hurlers fighting deep into the latter frames, look for this total to stay well below the posted number. 

Oakland A's/Chi White Sox UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Mike Soroka is putting together a fantastic rookie campaign for the Braves, as he’s played a big part in the team’s success this year. Sandy Alcantara has been more “miss” than “hit” for the Fish this season and I believe he’ll have his hands full here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. When you add it all up, I believe this number is a little low. 

The pitchers: Soroka (10-2, 2.45 ERA) most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Monday. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Soroka, other than his low strikeout numbers (97 K’s in 121 frames).

Alcantara (4-10, 4.50) enters off a decent start vs. the Mets on Monday, allowing two runs over five innings in a no-decision. Despite the effort though, note that Alcantara still has a poor 7.21 ERA since the All-Star break. 

The pick: Also note that Alcantara is just 2-8 with a 5.94 ERA in all “night” games this year. Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten National League road games with a total set at either 8 or 8.5 and as a -125 to -175 favorite. Everything points to a “slug-fest.” 

Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: Jon Gray has been solid for the Rockies this year, but I still think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Eric Lauer for the most part has struggled for the Padres this year and I think he’s going to get the hook early here as well. 

The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 4.03 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Padres throughout his career, but he comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off nine hits and a walk over four innings. 

Lauer (6-8, 4.43) is 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.488 WHIP and .364 OBA in four career starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while SD has seen the total soar over the number in 14 of 21 at home this year when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. Expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play

The set-up: Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Yamamoto, while the home side goes with Steven Matz. 

The pitchers: Yamamoto (4-2, 3.94 ERA) was blasted for four runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Twins in his last outing.

Matz (6-7, 4.60) was shelled for five runs over three innings in an 8-4 loss to the Bucs in his last start. 

The pick: New York is on a mission now as it looks to complete the four-game sweep. Clearly the Marlins won’t be going down without a fight. Considering the starting pitchers and the above situational/motivational factors, I think this one flys over the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

NY Mets/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: Two veteran hurlers with chips on their shoulders go head-to-head in this interesting NL matchup on Saturday night and in my professional opinion, runs are definitely going to be at a premium. The Reds’ trot out the newly acquired Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. 

The pitchers: Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) scuffled in his last start for his old team, giving up a career high seven runs over four innings, but terrible performances like that have truly been few and far between for the big right-hander. Note that Bauer has a 1.21 WHIP and 185:63 K:BB through 156.2 innings this year. 

Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) enters off a loss vs. the Nationals on Monday, allowing four runs over six innings. Keuchel though has been at his best at home this year, so far posting a solid 2.66 ERA to this point. 

The pick: I believe the stage is set for a “duel.” This number is high, play the under.

10* NL 2ND HALF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Reds/Braves.

The set-up: While the first two games of this series have gone under the number, I think that these two hungry clubs (tied for the lead in the NL Central) will post plenty of runs in the rubber match. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. 

The pitchers: Lester (9-6, 3.63 ERA) is coming off a strong start and he’s had plenty of success vs. the Cards in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Cards are 30-23 at home, while the Cubs are only 21-32 on the road this season.) 

Flaherty (4-6, 4.17) has been very hot of late, but he’s struggled mightily vs. the Cubs throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six match ups.

The pick: Note that the Cubs are expected to welcome slugger Nicholas Castellanos on Thursday night as well, acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. Expect these starters to get chased early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cards OVER 10* play

The set-up: A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Dario Agrazal, while the home side counters with ace Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Agrazal (2-1, 3.24 ERA) also comes in off the worst start of his career. Agrazal gave up five runs over six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday, but previous to that he’d not allowed more than two earned runs over his first five starts of his career. Expect a return to the norm here.

Castillo (9-4, 2.71) comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing six runs off eight hits over five innings vs. the Rockies on Friday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Castillo though, who has to be feeling confident as he’s 5-3 with a tiny 2.28 ERA at home.

The pick: After yesterday’s 11-4 Pittsburgh victory, one which ended a nine-game losing streak and which featured a wild benches-clearing brawl, I believe this contest sets up nicely as much more of a “duel.” 

Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds UNDER 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Two pitchers who are struggling down the stretch collide in this American League contest on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Drew VerHagen, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. 

The pitchers: VerHagen (1-1, 14.40 ERA) gave up seven runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to the Mariners after getting called up last week.

Canning (3-6, 5.15) was most recently shelled for five runs off five hits while striking out two over two innings. Over his last five outings Canning has given up 18 runs combined.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five as a road dog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year as a home favorite of -200 or higher. Look for these starters to get the hook early and play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Tigers/Angels.

The set-up: After yesterday’s back and forth “slug-fest,” I’m expecting a much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Yonny Chirinos, while the home side counters with Aaron Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Chirinos (8-5, 3.29 ERA) has gone at least five frames in all 15 of his starts this year and he’s 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four career outings vs. the Jays.

Sanchez (3-14, 6.06) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits while striking out six and walking no one in an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Indians.

The pick: Note as well that Sanchez owns a tiny 2.03 ERA in 16 career games vs. the Rays. As mentioned off the top, after yesterday’s 10-9 Blue jays win in 12 innings, I think this one sets up nicely as a lower-scoring “under.” 

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the under Rays/Jays.

The set-up: Two suspect hurlers go head-to-head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian Sampson, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Sampson (6-7, 5.19 ERA) while Sampson is 1-0 vs. the A’s in four career starts, he sports an unremarkable 5.51 ERA over that span.

Bailey (8-7, 5.42) beat the Mariners 10-2 at home in his debut for his new club, before then predictably falling back down to Earth in an 11-1 loss at Houston in his second. 

The pick: Note as well that Bailey has faced the Rangers twice already this year while with KC, losing both starts (16-2, 6-2) and posting a 10.13 ERA in the process. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Rangers/A’s.

The set-up: Texas has fallen off the map in the pursuit of a wild card spot and if Oakland isn’t careful, it will also follow suit. The A’s return home to take on Texas, who sits 6.5 games behind them in the division. Oakland has to be feeling confident though as it’s already 6-3 so far in this season series. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Ariel Jurado, while the home side counters with Brett Anderson.

The pitchers: Jurado (5-6, 4.92 ERA) is 0-2 with a 12.79 ERA in two lifetime appearances vs. Oakland. Overall it’s been a difficult year for Jurado, but note that he’s been at his best on the road funnily enough, going 3-2 with a respectable 4.12 ERA thus far. 

Anderson (9-5, 3.82) has had varying success vs. the Rangers throughout his career, but he comes back rested after a paternity leave from the birth of his son. Note that Anderson has been at his best in all “night” game as well so far this season, going 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 15 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in 25 of 39 this year vs. clubs with winning records. I think this number is just a little high.

Texas Rangers/Oakland A's under 8* play

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a little low. The lowly Orioles hand the ball to John Means in this one, while the home side counters with Taylor Clarke. 

The pitchers: Means (8-5, 2.95 ERA) has been fantastic this season, but I simply feel tha the rookie is in the wrong place at the wrong time here. This is a difficult interleague venue and I think the format will be an issue for Means tonight.

Clarke (2-3, 6.50) most recently was shelled for four runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to the Brewers on Friday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 33 of 56 “night” games this season, while Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 interleague contests. This number is a tad low.

Baltimore Orioles/Arizona DBacks OVER 8* play

The set-up: Yesterday’s total blasted well past the posted number, but all signs point to more of a “duel” here in my opinion. The home side turns to Walker Buehler to try and complete the three-game sweep of the impotent Fish, while the visitors counter with rookie Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Yamomoto (4-0, 1.59 ERA) has not conceded more than two earned runs in any of his outing since he debuted in mid June.

Buehler (8-1, 3.44) has 120 K’s over 110 innings this year and he owns a 3.60 ERA over two career starts vs. Miami. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 already this season as an underdog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 26 of 42 vs. clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

10* TOTAL DOMINATION under.

The set-up: Jacob deGrom has been his usual dominant self for the Mets of late, but Tyler Beede has for the most part struggled for the Giants this season. These are two hungry teams and I believe this total will sneak over this low number once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his past ten starts, going 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in the process.

Beede (3-3, 5.44) comes in off a strong performance vs. the Brewers on Sunday, allowing three runs off seven hits over seven innings, but as mentioned off the top, overall he’s struggled this year, especially at home where he’s 0-1 with a poor 5.11 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has seen the total go over the number in ten of 13 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher already, while San Francisco has seen the total go over in 16 of 22 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC on the over Mets/Giants.

The set-up: A couple of hungry veteran hurlers square off against each other in the final game on Thursay night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, while the home side counters with Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA) is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts vs. San Francisco. 

Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86) is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts and he’s never lost to the Mets in his career, going 6-0 with a 2.00 ERA over eight times opposed, including 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in New York.

The pick: Both teams come in off double-digit victories in their previous outings, with the Mets beating Minnesota 14-4 and the Giants getting the better of Colorado 11-8. The opener of this one though has duel written all over it my opinion. This number is high, play the under. 

9* PITCHERS DUEL

The set-up: This is the opener of a three-game set. This is the start of a seven game trip for San Diego, which series upcoming at the Cubs and Mets. The visitors hand the ball to Logan Allen, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto. 

The pitchers: Allen (2-1, 4.50 ERA) last pitched on July 1st and he was rocked for six runs off seven hits over four innings. 

Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24) most recently went six scoreless vs. the Braves on July 5th. The rookie has been awesome so far, but clearly the sample size is still too small and I think that a letdown is imminent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego has seen the total go over the number in seven of nine already this year with a money line in the -100 to -150 range, while Miami has seen the total fly over the number in 13 of 21 vs. southpaws. This number is low, play the over.

8* 

The set-up: Two starters who have struggled for the most part this year collide in the opener of this three-game series on Monday night and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, while the home side counters with Miles Mikolas. 

The pitchers: Musgrove (6-7, 4.15 ERA) conceded eight runs off six hits with five walks over three innings in a loss to the Cardinals on May 9th. 

Mikolas (5-9, 4.53) has just one win in his last ten starts and he most recently gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants.

The pick: This is a big series for both teams. St. Louis three games behind the Cubs, while the Pirates sit three games behind the Cards. Pittsburgh was just swept by Chicago, so it certainly won’t be lacking for motivation. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it.

8* OVER Bucs/Cards

The set-up: Toronto pulled off a rare upset over the Yankees yesterday and it’ll be trying to do it again here. New York will be out to atone for that subpar effort and when the smoke does finally clear, I expect this total to sneak above the posted number. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. 

The pitchers: Stroman (5-9, 3.18 ERA) hasn’t pitched since June 29th because of a pectoral issue. Overall Stroman is 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA in 16 career starts vs. New York. 

Tanaka (5-5, 3.86) last took the mound on July 5th vs. Tampa Bay when he’d allow four runs off six hits over six innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jays have already seen the total go over the number in four of five this year on the road when the total is between 10 to 10.5, while the Yanks have seen the total soar over in five of seven at home when total is set in the same range. This number is a little low, play the over.

8* TOTAL ECLIPSE on the over Jays/Yankees.

The set-up: Chase Anderson of the Brewers squares off against Joe Musgrove of the Pirates in the final game before the Mid-Summer Classic. Both have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons though, I believe each will get chased early and because of that, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: Anderson (4-2, 4.31 ERA) is 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 16 career outings vs. Pittsburgh. 

Musgrove (6-7, 4.13) is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Brewers. 

The pick: Take it for what  you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 29 of its last 49 vs. right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh has seen the total sail over in 30 of 49 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Both teams are hungry for the series victory and everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” Play the over. 

Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates OVER

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in highly motivated in the opener of this series. Colorado comes to town off a 2-4 home stand. Arizona has lost eight straight in this series and would clearly love nothing more than to break that string of futility. The hungry visiting side sends Antonio Senzatela to the hill, while the home side counters with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Senzatela (7-5, 4.83 ERA) is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in ten career appearances vs. Arizona spanning 42 innings of work. 

Greinke (5-3, 2.90) is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts vs. Colorado this year, allowing 21 hits and striking out 12 over 19 frames of work. 

The pick: Take it or what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over in 27 of 48 vs. right-handed starters this season and in 22 of 36 vs. the division, while Arizona has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. I think the writing is on the wall and a high-scoring “slug-fest” is in the cards. 

Colorado Rockies/Arizona DBacks OVER

10* play

The set-up: The White Sox swept a double-header yesterday. The visitors turn to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Robin Lopez in the series finale Thursday afternoon. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-6, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Rangers on Wednesday, striking out 11. So far he’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in one start vs. the White Sox this year. 

Lopez (4-7, 6.12) is 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA in nine career starts vs. Detroit. Note that Lopez has been particularly effective vs. the Tigers this season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA while striking out 22 over 12 innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go under the number in all three games it’s played in this year on the road when the money line is between -100 and -150, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in 21 of 34 vs. the division. I think these two battle deep and this one stays well below the posted number.

Detroit Tigers/Chi. White Sox UNDER

10* play

The set-up: A couple of veteran hurlers go toe-to-toe on the slab in this one and I’m expecting a lower-scoring under once it’s all said and done. The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the hill, while the A’s give the nod to Mike Fiers. 

The pitchers: Gibson (8-4, 4.21 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in four career starts vs. Oakland. 

Fiers (8-3, 4.01) has gone 8-2 since joining the A’s in Oakland and he’s 5-2 there this year. Overall Fiers has gone ten straight decisions without a loss, going 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA in the process (Fiers has also gone 6-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 11 career games vs. the Twins.)

The pick: The A’s won the opener 8-6, but considering all of the above factors, plus the fact that Minnesota has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten home games after allowing seven or more runs in its previous contest, then the “under” is definitely the correct call here in my opinion. 

Oakland A's/Minnesota Twins UNDER

8* play

The set-up: The first two games of this series have gone well “under” the number, but I think the finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The Rockies won the first game 2-0, while San Fran won 4-2 yesterday. The visitors go with German Marquez tonight, while the home side goes with Jeff Samardzija.

The pitchers: Marquez (7-3, 4.32 ERA) is 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA in six starts vs. the Giants (despite pitching a one-hit shutout vs. them on April 14th.) 

Samardzija (4-6, 4.23) is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA in 18 games vs. the Rockies.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has already seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while San Fran has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 27 of its last 47 vs. right-handed starters. This number is a little low.

San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies OVER

9* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one, as two veteran hall of fame hurlers collide on Monday night. Suffice it to say I believe that runs are going to be at a premium with LA’s Clayton Kershaw squaring off against the Diamondbacks’ Zach Greinke.

The pitchers: Kershaw (7-1, 2.85 ERA) is sixth in the NL in ERA and fifth in WHIP. He’s 16-9 with a 2.59 ERA in 31 games vs. the Diamondbacks. 

Greinke (8-3, 2.91) is seventh in the NL in ERA and third in WHIP (0.93). He’s 7-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Dodgers.

The pick: It’s interesting to note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 34 this year vs. teams with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go under in eight of 12 this season as an underdog. This number is a little high.

LA Dodgers/Arizona D-Backs UNDER

8* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a lower-scoring pitchers duel between these two hungry starters after Minnesota’s come from behind 8-7 win last night. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: Berrios (8-3, 2.86 ERA) comes in off a gem, striking out a season-high ten batters with one walk over eight innings in an unfortunate loss vs. the Red Sox. 

Duffy (3-3, 4.64) has looked great at times this year and very poor in others, but a date vs. the Twins is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 21 appearances vs. them. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 17 vs. the division still, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. This number is a little high.

KC Royals/Minnesota Twins UNDER

9* play

The set-up: Trevor Bauer has been decent of late for the Indians, but Matt Boyd has taken a step back tho season after a strong 2018. For a number of different reasons, I think this number is too low. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-5, 3.35 ERA) comes in off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for five runs over four innings in a 7-3 loss to the impotent Royals.

Bauer (5-6, 3.41) comes in off his first complete-game shutout of his career over these very Tigers last Sunday. Clearly the visitors will be out to atone for that setback (note that Bauer hadn’t been credited with a win before that since April 30th.) Note as well that Bauer owns a 5.17 ERA lifetime vs. the Tigers in 18 career appearances still. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC over Tigers/Indians

The set-up: Toronto hasn’t put up much of a fight in this series. The Jays are struggling at the plate and I think that trend continues here in another difficult matchup on the mound for them. The visitors hand the ball to Trent Thornton, while the home side goes with Brad Peacock.

The pitchers: Thornton (1-5, 4.78 ERA) suffered a loss in Baltimore last time out, allowing three runs over five innings. 

Peacock (6-3, 3.42) enters on top form, going 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 45 K’s vs. 12 walks over his last seven starts spanning 40 1/3’s frames of work. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten road games following a two games or longer losing streak, while Houston has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 already this season as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high.

Toronto Blue Jays/Houston Astros UNDER

9* play

The set-up: The Marlins go with right-hander Jordan Yamamoto who makes his MLB debut tonight, while the visitors go with the struggling Miles Mikolas. Miami will be desperate to break out of its funk here after losing six straight and scoring just ten runs in that span. 

The pitchers: Yamamoto was 3-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts in Double A.

Mikolas (4-6, 4.54) has had plenty of success vs. the Fish in the past, but that was then and this is now. Mikolas is just 1-3 with a 7.52 ERA on the road this year and he’s allowed 13 homers in 13 starts after allowing just 16 in total last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after allowing three runs of press in two straight games, while Miami has seen the total go over in six of eight this season in trying to revenge two straight home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low.

STL Cards/Miami Marlins OVER

10* play

The set-up: The sub-way series was postponed a day due to inclement weather. Now the Mets and Yanks will play a double-header, with Zack Wheeler and Masahiro Tanaka getting the call in Game 1 and then Jason Vargas and James Paxton going in the second. This is a play on the “over” in Game 2. The Mets come into the day having won 12 of their last 20. The Yanks won’t be lacking for motivation after going 2-5 in their last seven. 

The pitchers: Vargas (2-3, 3.57 ERA) has been exceptional of late, but regression seems imminent in my opinion. Note as well that he’s a terrible 0-7 with a 6.84 ERA in 11 appearances vs. the Yankees. 

Paxton (3-2, 2.11) is making his third start since coming off the IL after missing three weeks with a knee injury. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in three of four interleague games already, while the Yanks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All signs point to a slugfest in the night game.

NY Yankees/NY Mets OVER

10* play

The set-up: Boston will be desperate to avoid the three-game series sweep. New York continues to get production at the plate despite several key injuries to its sluggers. While David Price has historically struggled vs. New York, he comes into this contest “firing on all cylinders” and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. CC Sabathia has enjoyed plenty of success vs. Boston and I think the veteran will also have a big night Sunday.

The pitchers: Price (2-2 2.83 ERA) is 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA over his last four starts. 

Sabathia (3-1, 3.48) is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. the Red Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 20 this year vs. teams with winning records, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten vs. left-handed starters. I think this number is slightly high.

Red Sox/Yanks under

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: Two veteran hurlers who have seen better days go head to head in this one and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to easily eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey, while the home side counters with Lance Lynn. 

The pitchers: Decent starts have been few and far between for Bailey (4-5, 5.79 ERA) over the last couple of years, who finished 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA last season. It’s difficult to point out any positives about Bailey as he continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 6.16 ERA on the road. 

Lynn (6-4, 4.66) like his count part has looked decent one game, only to struggle in the next. Note that he has a terrible 6.01 ERA at home so far this year. 

The pick: Lynn’s been decent over the last month, including vs. the Royals, but overall he still owns a rather poor 5.01 ERA over eight career starts vs. them. The Rangers evened this series with yesterday’s lower-scoring 6-2 win, so with each team pressing for the series victory, I expect these volatile starters to get the hook early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* KC/Tex Over

The set-up: San Francisco is now in last place in the NL West after yesterday’s 11-3 series opening loss. Neither team has much to play for here other than pride at this point, but in my opinion, everything points to another high-scoring “slug-fest” on Wednesday night. The Giants hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, while the home side counters with the volatile Pablo Lopez.

The pitchers: Bumgarner (3-4, 4.10 ERA) comes in off a decent outing vs. the Braves in his last start, but he’s just 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. the Fish.

Lopez (3-5, 5.40) has a 1.93 ERA at home and an 8.26 ERA on the road. I think these lop-sided numbers start correct themselves. Starting tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Giants have seen the total go over in 11 of 17 already this year vs. clubs with losing records, while the Marlins have seen the total sail over in nine of 12 this year already when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Look for these two starters to get the hook early.

San Francisco Giants/Miami Marlins OVER

8* play

The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this interleague matchup on Monday night and in my opinion, I think runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels, while the home side counters with Gerritt Cole. 

The pitchers: Hamels (4-0, 3.38 ERA) is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 16 K’s over his last 16 innings of work. 

Cole (4-5, 4.11) hasn’t been at his best over the last weeks, but he still leads the majors in strikeouts with 100 and in strikeout rate at 37.7 percent. He is also 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Cubs. 

The pick: Many Astros’ sluggers are on the IL right now, including Aledmys Diaz, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Max Stassi. I think the stage is set for these starters to “steal the show.” This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros UNDER

10* play

The set-up: I’m surprised the total is this high considering the talent level on the mound tonight. I’m expecting a classic “duel” on Sunday night, with Atlanta sending veteran Julio Teheran to the hill and the home side countering with Joe Flaherty.

The pitchers: Teheran (3-4, 3.67 ERA) struggled to open the 2019 campaign, but he’s been “lights out” in May, going 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA through four outings. Note tha the’s 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA seven career starts vs. the Cards as well.

Flaherty (4-3, 4.19) has pitched at least five innings in four starts this month and now given up more than three earned runs in any of those appearances. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go under the number in seven of eight already this year after having won six of seven of its last eight games, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven vs. right-handed starters. This number is a bit high.

Atlanta Braves/STL Cardinals UNDER

9* play

The set-up: The Diamondbacks broke out of their slump in a big way last night by destroying the Giants 18-2. Clearly the last thing Arizona can do is sit back and relax though as it’ll now look to carry that momentum over into another favorable matchup. The Giants can’t be happy after getting shellacked either. Two confirmed “gas cans” go head to head in this one and in my opinion, this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Clarke, while the home side counters with Andrew Suarez. 

The pitchers: Clarke (0-1, 2.00 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. This will be his second start of his career. 

Suarez (0-1, 4.50) gave up three runs and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. This is his second start of the season as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over in 13 of 20 vs. the division already this season, while San Fran has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this year after a loss by four runs or more. This number is much to low in my opinion.

Arizona Dbacks/San Francisco Giants OVER

10* play

The set-up: Both teams are struggling offensively, but New York now has an opportunity to sweep this four game series after its 6-1 win last night, scoring all six runs in the eighth inning. Washington is now 11 games under .500. Washington last won a game when tonight’s starter Stephen Strasburg was last on the hill, while the home side counters with Stephen Matz.

The pitchers: Strasburg (4-3, 3.32 ERA) gave up two runs over eight innings in a 5-2 win over the Cubs last weekend. Note that he’s pitched at least six frames in nine of his ten trips to the mound this season.

Matz (3-3, 3.96) returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to the Marlins on Saturday. While just 1-5 vs. the Nats in 11 career starts, Matz owns a very respectable 3.60 ERA. 

The pick: Note as well that Strasburg is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 19 career starts vs. New York. The Nationals’ bullpen has been atrocious, but I expect these competent starters to battle deep. This number is high.

Washington Nationals/NY Mets UNDER

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game. For both teams. The Diamondbacks are desperate to avoid a sweep, while San Diego is desperate to post a sweep. These are two highly motivated clubs and I think it’s going to ultimately translate into offensive production at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Kelly (4-4, 4.21 ERA) is 1-0 vs. the Padres, but he’s given up seven runs off 13 hits spanning two starts and 11 frames to finish with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Lauer (2-4, 5.24) is 0-2 vs. the Diamondbacks already this year, getting shelled for seven runs off 17 hits with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 vs. the division already, while SD has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this season following a win by one run. This number is low, play the over.

Padres/D-Backs over

8*

The set-up: Texas rolled to a 7-3 win over the Cards last night, but I’m expecting much more of a “duel” this evening. The home side hands the ball to Ariel Jurado, while the visitors try to bounce back with Dakota Hudson on the bump.

The pitchers: Jurado (1-1, 1.50 ERA) makes his first start of the year. Last year he started eight games. He most recently gave up two runs over three innings to the Royals.

Hudson (2-3, 4.61) most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Pirates last weekend. Despite going 0-2 in three starts in May, Hudson owns a very respectable 3.18 ERA in that span.

The pick: St. Louis is struggling at the plate (getting outscored 21-5 in losing its last three games) and I don’t see anything changing here suddenly either. Look for these competent starters to battle deep.

Texas Rangers/STL Cardinals UNDER

8* play

The set-up: Oakland destroyed the Tigers 17-3 yesterday. I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “duel” in the second game. The home side sends Daniel Norris to the bump to atone for yesterday’s disappointing effort, while the visitors counter with Frankie Montas. 

The pitchers: Montas (4-2, 2.78 ERA) held the hard-hitting Indians to two runs over six innings last Friday, after holding the Pirates to one run over six frames of work. Montas hasn’t given up a home run in his last five starts and I believe he carries over that momentum here. 

Norris (2-1, 3.63) gave up two runs while striking out five over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Twins on Sunday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 23 then the total 9 or higher, while Detroit has seen the total dip under in ten of 13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. After yesterday’s slug-fest, expect these competent hurlers to be the main story-lines in tomorrow’s summaries.

Oakland A's/Detroit Tigers UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Two pitchers on top form collide in this National League contest on Thursday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium here. The Reds came out on top 6-5 in ten innings yesterday, but everything points to more of a “duel” between the Cubs Jose Quintana and the Reds Luis Castillo on Thursday. 

The pitchers: Quintana (4-2, 3.50 ERA) had a four game win streak snapped in last Friday’s setback to the Brewers, allowing three runs over seven innings. He’s 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. 

Castillo (4-1, 1.76) has won four straight, most recently posting a season-best 11 K’s over six shutout innings in a victory over San Francisco last weekend. He’s 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts vs. Chicago.

The pick: Note that Chicago has seen the total go under in 9 of 14 vs. division opponents already this year, while Cincinnati has seen the total go under in ten of 16 at home. This number is high.

Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Red UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Two starters who appear to be improving with each outing collide in the opener of this three-game series and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium tonight. The visitors got with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Miles Mikolas. 

The pitchers: Velasquez (1-1, 2.73 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget though vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, allowing three runs over four innings. The one bright spot was that he’d strike out seven. Despite the sub-par showing though Velasquez still owns the sharp ERA and 1.22 WHIP to go along with a 29:10 K:BB.

Mikolas (3-2, 4.73) gave up seven hits with one walk while striking out four over six innings in a win over the Reds on Wednesday. It was easily his best start of the year and I don’t think there’s any reason to think that Mikolas can’t now carry that momentum over here as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as ell, but Philly has seen the total go under the number in four of five already this year as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in six of its last nine after being swept on the road in a three game series by a division rival. This number is high.

Philadelphia Phillies/STL Cards UNDER

8* play

The set-up: Colorado came from behind in the ninth inning to beat the Braves 9-5 last night. I think the finale of this three-game set sets up as more of a “duel” though. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side counters with Kevin Gausman.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 0-2 with a 12.00 ERA. The good news for Anderson is that there’s only one way his performance can go from here. Anderson has struggled since returning from the DL, but the southpaw owned a respectable 3.59 ERA in all “day” games last year.

Gausman is so far 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA. Over 25 innings he has a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 28:8 K:BB.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go under the number in four of five already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while ATL has seen the total dip under in five of six as a -150 fav or higher. This number is high.

Rockies/Braves UNDER

9* play

The set-up: Arizona won 11-2 yesterday. This is the finale of a four-game set and I’m expecting a much better “pitchers duel” this afternoon. Pittsburgh has lost the first three of this series, getting outscored 25-7 in the process. Two experienced starters go head to head in the finale.

The pitchers: Arizona’s Zack Greinke (3-1, 4.60 ERA) who after a couple of slow starts to open the 2019 campaign, has come on like “gang busters” of late by posting four straight quality starts and posting a sharp 2.81 ERA in the process.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (1-2, 3.12), who like his counterpart today started the season slowly, but who has since “turned it around,” most recently going five innings in a 3-1 victory. 

The pick: Arizona has seen the total go under in 61 of its last 103 “day” games, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in ten of 15 vs. right-handed starters. This number is a little high.

Pittsburgh Pirates/Arizona D-Backs UNDER

9* play

The set-up: Both games in yesterday’s double-header flew over the number, with the Tribe taking an 8-4 win in the first game and the Braves rallying late for an 8-7 win in the second. I like the Indians to bounce back in the rubber match tonight (as stated in my free play). So far Atlanta pitcher Max Fried has been exemplary, but I think he runs into a buzz saw here vs. this red hot Indians’ offense. He’ll also have his hands full with vs. his counterpart Shane Bieber.

The pitchers: Fried, who is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA who has so far thrown three straight strong outings, faces a difficult task throwing opposite Bieber, who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Bieber most recently gave up one run over six innings in a win over he M’s on Tuesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven on the road, while Cleveland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six vs. southpaws. Despite these pitchers getting out to respective “hot” starts, I think these offenses continue to shine.

Braves/Indians OVER

10* play

The set-up: The opener of this three-game set was snowed out yesterday, meaning these teams now play a shortened two-game series. While each of these starters has looked decent early, I think they take a step back today.

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (1-1, 2.25 ERA), who enters off a 3-1 win over the toothless Royals. 

The home side goes with Michael Pineda (1-0, 2.00) who makes his third start for the Twins, picking up his first win over Philadelphia on Saturday. 

The pick: Note that Minnesota has scored 20 runs on 26 hits over three games before this latest break and there’s no reason not to think it won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. This number is just a little low in my opinion. 

Tigers/Twins OVER

9* play

The set-up: While yesterday’s game fell under the total in the Tigers bounce back victory, all signs point to a higher-scoring slug-fest in the finale on Thursday afternoon in my opinion.

The pitchers: The Indians send out Shane Bieber (0-0, 3.38 ERA), who gave up two runs off two hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Jays on Friday. 

The home side counters with Spencer Turnbull (0-1, 4.09) who gave up three runs off six hits while striking out ten over six innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. So far Turnbull has one “dud” and one “gem” under his belt in 2019.

The pick: The Tigers have won six of their last seven and they had ten hits off Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer yesterday, who had allowed only one hit over his first two starts combined. "We've been struggling offensively and we're just trying to get better game by game as an offense and stay within ourselves," Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters after the game. "I think some guys are starting to use the whole field, staying on balls, some really good two-strike at-bats. We're cutting down on our strikeouts a little bit and if we do that a little better we'll get a lot more hits."

Indians/Tigers OVER

9* play

The set-up: The Reds are 1-8 to open the year, and the Marlins are 3-7. Two decent pitchers go head-to-head in this one, but I think these teams will easily combine to push this total over the total once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: The Fish go with Jose Urena (0-2, 10.38 ERA) who gave up five earned runs off seven hits and one walk over four innings in a loss to the Mets on Tuesday. Over 8.2 innings of work Urena has given up ten earned runs so far this year. 

The home side counters with Luis Castillo (0-1, 1.42) who has given up just two runs over his first 12.2 innings of work. Castillo though has perhaps been a bit “lucky” considering he’s walked seven and hit a batter over that small sample size. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well by Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in 25 of its last 41 following a one run loss, while Cincinnati has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last eight off six straight losses vs. division rivals. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Marlins/Reds OVER

9* play

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-1 home win over the Padres, while the Dodgers rolled to an impressive 12-6 win at Colorado. While Hyun-Jin Ryu has been excellent to start the year, his counterpart Miles Mikolas has been a train wreck. 

The pitchers: The Dodgers go with Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 2.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with five strikeouts and no walks over seven innings in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. Over his first two starts he has 13 punch outs. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (0-1, 7.20) who has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season. Over two starts he’s given up eight runs off 12 hits. Last year Mikolas was 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA, so clearly he’s struggling with command issues or something else right now.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in three of four vs. right-handed starters this year, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low.

Dodgers/Cards OVER

10* play

The set-up: Two teams not known for their offensive fire-power go head to head on Thursday afternoon. A couple of confirmed “gas cans” also square off on the mound though. I believe that Jake Junis and Spencer Turnbull get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: The Royals’ Junis (1-0, 4.76 ERA) earned a win despite not being at his best vs. the White Sox on Saturday, allowing three runs off six hits over five innings of work. Junis is in his third year and he finished 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA last season.

The Tigers’ Turnbull (0-1, 5.40) gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Saturday. Last year he was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA for the Tigers, including 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go over in four of five vs. the division already this season, while Detroit has seen the total fly over in 16 of its last 25 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Royals/Tigers OVER

10* play

The set-up: Two competent starters square off here, but I’m expecting a much more competitive game today after the Rays’ 7-1 victory on Monday. That was Tampa’s fourth straight win. 

The pitchers: The home side turns to Blake Snell (0-1, 7.50 ERA), who was rocked for six hits, including three homers over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Astros in his 2019 opener. 

Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (1-0, 1.29), who looked good in his first start after putting together a very solid 2018 as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five on the road, while Tampa’s seen the total go over in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low, play the “over.”

Rockies/Rays OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Indians have stumbled out of the gate to open 2019, thanks in part to a poor offense for the most part. The Tribe head home for their first game at Progressive Field in 2019 and I think it’ll be just what the doctor ordered to get things turned around at the plate for the home side. The White Sox lost 14 of 19 in this season series last year, so they won’t be lacking for motivation either. The pitchers are decent, but the overall situation lends itself to a higher-scoring slug-fest in my opinion. 

The pitchers: The White Sox turn to Ivan Nova, who was 11-14 with a 4.14 ERA in 2017 and 9-9 with a 4.19 ERA last year for the Pirates. Nova comes in off a decent spring, but I think he’ll have his hands full with this under-achieving and focused Indians’ line-up.

Cleveland goes with Mike Clevinger, who was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 2017 and 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 2018. Clevinger had a strong spring as well. 

The pick: As stated off the top, these starters are both solid, however as I also noted, the situation points to a higher-scoring affair in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go over the number in 30 of its last 50 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland has seen the total go over in 29 of its last 49 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

Indians/White Sox OVER

Selction: Mets/Nationals UNDER

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: Two teams which hope to be in the postseason collide in this National League contest on Thursday afternoon and with their respective “aces” getting the call, everything points to a low-scoring pitchers duel in my opinion. 

The pitchers: Jacob deGrom gets the call for New York and last year he finished 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. deGrom just signed a five-year 137.5 million dollar contract on Tuesday.

Max Scherzer gets the nod for the home side. Scherzer was 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA in 2017 and 18-7 with a 2.53 ERA in 2018. Scherzer struck out 12 in his final spring tune-up on Friday.

The pick: Throw the stats out the window on Opening Day. I expect these two hungry Cy Young winners to “steal the show” and to battle deep into the latter frames.

Nationals/Mets UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Seattle won 9-7 in the 2019 season opener in Japan early yesterday morning. Domingo Santa delivered a grand slam in the victory. Both teams bats looked great, including the A’s Khris Davis, who led MLB with 48 home runs last year, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty who all went yard, and the Mariners got balanced hitting from Tim Beckham and newcomer Edwin Encarnacion, who scored twice.

The pitchers: Mariners go with LHP Yusei Kikuchi, as the 27 year old makes his MLB debut in his home country. 

The A’s hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who steadily declined with the Blue Jays over the last three years before posting a career worst 7-14, 5.64 ERA record. The 35 year old isn’t getting any younger, as he had difficulties with his hip and back all year in 2018.

The pick: I think these starters get chased early and I look for these hard-hitting offense to put a plethora of points on the board once it’s all said and done. Play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: While yesterday’s game stayed “under” in the Brewers’ 3-2 win, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these hard-hitting clubs on Friday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side turns to Jhoulys Chacin.

The teams: Anderson finished the regular season an unremarkable 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA. Anderson admittedly looked a lot better over September, but I’ll point out that he still owns a poor 5.02 ERA on the road this year.

Chacin finished 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Chacin started the tie-breaker against the Cubs and while his team came out on top of that one, I think the quick turn-around here isn’t going to help the veteran. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Chacin, so I won’t even bother trying. It’s just a bad spot in m opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League day road games in which it’s an underdog on the +150 to +160 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The pick: I think this situation favors these red hot starters. Look for Freeland and Lester to battle deep and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. the visitors go with Ross Stripling on the hill, while the home side goes with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-5 with a 2.84 ERA. He comes in off a loss against the Cards on Sunday, but overall the right-hander has been great this year. Note that he has a sharp 1.14 WHIP over 117 innings and he’s been great in all “night” games with a 2.44 ERA.

Greinke is so far 14-11 with a 3.21 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been fantastic at home, coming in with a sharp 6-4, 2.42 ERA in friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night road games when the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Wei-Yin Chen has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s been terrible on the road. The Nationals made an over night pitching change, shelving Roark and going with Kyle McGowin. I think runs will be plentiful here.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-11 with a 4.66 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 1.62 ERA at home and 1-8 with a 9.29 ERA on the road.

McGowin is so far 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA. He was amazing at the Triple-A level, but he was blown up in his first appearance in the big leagues. He draws a more favorable opponent tonight, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who are likely happy to see the season coming to an end collide in this one. I think runs are going to be plentiful, as the visitors hand the ball to Bryan Mitchell, while the home side goes with Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA. He fell to the Giants at home on Tuesday and he can’t be feeling too confident here either, as note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA in all “night” games this season.

Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.57 ERA. The ten year veteran has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s a poor 2-7 with a 4.78 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Two suspect starters here. I think these normally lighter-hitting line-ups take advantage. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Jake Arrieta, while the home side hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz.

The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA. He has been far from perfect this year, but I think the veteran has likely been just as good as Philadelphia could have possibly asked for to this point. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.70 ERA on the road.

Foltynewicz is so far 11-10 with a 2.90 ERA. After giving up one run over a complete game victory over the Giants, he wasn’t quite as sharp in his latest outing against the Cards. Regardless the southpaw has also exceeded expectations to this point (note that Foltynewicz is 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA in all “day” games.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney, while the home side goes with Gerritt Cole.

The pitchers: Heaney is so far 9-9 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Saturday. Over his last 12 innings of work he’s allowed just two earned runs.

Cole is so far 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong outings and he’ll now be looking to close the regular season strong and improve upon his already impressive 7-2, 2.72 ERA record in front of the home town crowd.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that the Astros have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of their last 14 night American League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -250 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Clearly these are two very capable starters. This total is set low for a reason, but in my estimation, it’s a little too low. Admittedly these are two of the very best pitchers going head-to-head in this one, but this is also a couple of the hardest-hitting line-ups in the World as well. I look for this one to sneak “over” once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.92 ERA. He went three shutout innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. Sale has looked good early in his limited time and he’ll be worked back into his full load slowly. However, the fact that he could be on a short leash again here definitely is a major factor working in our favor on this play.

Bauer is so far 12-6 with a 2.22 ERA. Bauer’s been out since mid-August with a lower-leg fracture. The Indians have already clinched a playoff spot, so the team has little to play for over the final two weeks. Bauer will have a couple of “tune-ups” to get back into form before the post-season.

The pick: Neither of these work horse starters is expected to see much time tonight and because of that, I’m going to recommend a play on the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, while the home side goes with ace Corey Kluber.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Wednesday. Rodon hasn’t been perfect this year, but his 1.11 WHIP is elite and note that he has a sharp 3.08 ERA in all “night” games as well.

Kluber is so far 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over 1.2 innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Monday. It was his worst start of the year, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react. Clearly the sub-par effort has to be considered an “outlier” at his point.

The pick: Note that Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.05 ERA at home this season. And take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this early afternoon Tuesday contest is one of them. I think runs are going to be plentiful this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with JA Happ.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He returns to the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. He’s been more “miss” than “hit” for the Red Sox this year though, a big reason why he was quickly shifted to the bullpen originally. Note that he’s been poor on the road with a 2-6, 5.68 ERA.

Happ is so far 16-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Happ’s been as solid as New York could have possibly asked for since coming over from the Jays, but I will point out that he still does own a very pedestrian 4.90 ERA in all home instances this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the red hot Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with veteran Jake Arrieta.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He most recently went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday, striking out seven and issuing zero walks. To go along with his solid ERA he also sports an elite 1.12 WHIP along with a strong 175 strikeouts over 167.1 innings.

Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA. For the most part the veteran has been as solid as the Phillies could have possibly hoped for this season and Arrieta surely feels confident in this spot as he comes in with a very respectable 4-3, 3.10 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Mets have seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of their last 17 National League road games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob deGrom, while the home side goes with ace Chris Sale.

The pitchers: deGrom is so far 8-9 with a 1.71 ERA. The Mets right-hander has been nearly perfect this season and he’s been especially tough on the road where he’s a “lights out” 5-3 with a 1.66 ERA.

Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.96 ERA. He returned on Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame against Toronto, giving up one hit and striking out two. Sale’s been out since August 12th, but he’s re-habed successfully, made a successful first appearance and now he’s been given the green light to make his first start.

The pick: Note that Sale is 4-2 with a 1.92 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in all “day” games. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten American League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The Jays Marco Estrada was dominant in 2015, but it’s now the end of 2018 and the veteran has been sliding ever since. The Yanks’ Masahiro Tanaka has looked downright dominant at times this season, but also plain horrible in others. I think runs are going to be plentiful in this one Friday night.

The pitchers: Estrada is so far 3-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with two walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. Previous to that though he’d bee shelled for 11 runs over 6.1 innings, spanning two starts. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA on the road as well.

Tanaka is so far 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Mariners on Friday, going eight shutout and striking out ten. Tanaka has been considerably more consistent than his inconsistent counterpart this year, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.33 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine American League night home games in which they’re a favorite in the -175 to -275 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think the Yanks’ Luis Severino and the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi will fight deep into the latter frames, which will in turn result in pushing this total “under” the number at the end of the night.

The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-7 with a 3.52 ERA. After a disastrous August, Severino has looked more steady of late. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he still owns a very respectable 3.65 ERA in all “night” games.

Odorizzi is so far 5-10 with a 4.57 ERA. Last year he was 10-8 with a 4.14 ERA, so 2018 has clearly been a step back for the hard-throwing right-hander. He’s coming off a loss against the Astros last week and while his ERA is nothing to write home about, I’ll point out that he does own the respectable 1.26 WHIP and 148:61 K/BB over 147.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of its last 24 American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-up on the mound, and this is one of those. The visitors go with Jose Urena, while the home side hands the ball to Jacob deGrom.

The pitchers: Urena is so far 5-12 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Monday.

deGrom is so far 8-8 with a 1.68 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. deGrom’s scheduled start was postponed on Monday due to rain, so he comes into this one with extra rest.

The pick: deGrom has been even tougher at home on opponents than on the road, as evidenced by his tiny 1.59 ERA in such instances. Note as well that New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of 20 this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: For the most part these starting pitchers have struggled this year. Two veterans who have seen better days collide on Saturday afternoon and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Wei-Yin Chen, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-9 with a 4.64 ERA. He comes in on a bit of “tear” having won two straight, most recently going eight innings. However, I’m not convinced that Chen has suddenly “turned a corner,” as note that he’s still owns a poor 5.55 ERA in all “day” games and he’s a terrible 1-6 with a 9.35 ERA on the road.

Nova is so far 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA. His last start was skipped over due to a personal issue and while he’s been much better at home than on the road, I still think his overall inconsistency from game-to-game becomes a factor again today.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 day National League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with David Price.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Cole clearly comes in confident here sporting a 6-3, 2.79 ERA record on the road as well.

Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.60 ERA. He got hit by a liner in his last start, but he’s been given the green light to go here. Price is putting together one of his best campaigns of his career as well, note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA at home so far.

The pick: This is a great match-up and I expect these two “studs” to fight into the latter frames. And as a result, look for this one to sneak “under” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: This American League match-up on Wednesday night features two pitchers who have seen better days. I expect the total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later in this one. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Mike Leake.

The pitchers: Cashner is so far 4-13 with a 4.86 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off nine hits with three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out one in a loss to the Royals on Friday. Note that Cashner comes in sport a terrible 2-7, 5.27 ERA record on the road.

Leake is so far 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off seven hits in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Overall Leake’s been solid for the most part this season, although not really at home with a pedestrian 3-5, 4.29 ERA record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

PITCHING CHANGE! NO PLAY! 

The set-up: These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. Neither has looked great of late though and I think each is going to get the hook early in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-7 with a 4.27 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Over five August starts Porcello stumbled to a 2-3, 4.78 ERA performance.

Newcomb is so far 11-7 with a 3.85 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off eight hits with two walks in a loss to the Rays on Wednesday. Over his last four starts he’s posted a horrible 8.48 ERA and clearly that doesn’t bode well facing the league’s No. 1 offense.

The pick: I think Porcello takes a step back in this difficult National League venue, while Newcomb also looks poised to continue his spiral down the proverbial crapper against this elite hitting line-up. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Touki Toussaint.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA. After an unreal start for the Red Sox, Eovaldi predictably came crashing back down to Earth shortly after. Eovaldi hasn’t forgotten how to pitch though and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games by posting a 4-1, 1.95 ERA record.

Toussaint is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. In his first outing for the Braves he’d impress everyone by giving up one run over six innings in a victory over Miami. Clearly the Red Sox present an entirely different challenge, but the rookie showed enough to impress me to make me think he’ll be able to last into the latter frames again here.

The pick: I think there’s a ton of value on the “under” as I expect these hungry starting pitchers to fight into the latter frames. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Two pitchers who have seen better days collide on Sunday afternoon in this American League match-up. I believe runs will be plentiful with the Mariners turning to Felix Hernandez and the A’s going with Edwin Jackson.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-12 with a 5.49 ERA. Hernandez has admittedly looked a lot better since an early August move to the bullpen in two subsequent starts, but note that he’s still a brutal 4-7 with a 6.95 ERA on the road.

Jackson is so far 4-3 with a 3.03 ERA. After an un-sustainable start to his 2018/19 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth of late. Regardless though, Jackson has been decent overall, but note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.17 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 14 day American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who come into the end of the season struggling. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Lance Lynn.

The pitchers: Boyd is so far 8-12 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the light-hitting Royals on Wednesday and while Boyd’s likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, note that he’s still a very poor 2-9 with a 5.95 ERA on the road this year.

Lynn is so far 8-9 with a 4.84 ERA. After a great stretch, Lynn has come back down to Earth of late for the Yanks. Note that he owns a poor 2-4, 5.90 ERA in all “day” games this season also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who have seen better days. I think runs will definitely be plentiful in this one with the Mets sending Stephen Matz to the hill and the home side going with Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Nationals on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits with one walk in what turned out to be a loss. Matz has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though, especially on the road where he’s just 4-5 with a 5.53 ERA.

Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits in a win over Texas on Sunday. Holland has been sharp of late, but note that he does own a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day road National League games in which it’s an underdog in the -105 to -135 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Luis Severino.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings, striking out five and picking up a win over the Cubs on Tuesday. For the most part the veteran has been solid this year, especially on the road with a 3-2, 2.34 ERA in all “night” games.

Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.27 ERA. He’s been a bit shaky of late, but overall Severino is enjoying a tremendous season. Note that he’s 9-2 with a tiny 2.73 ERA in “home” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 18 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two starters who have seen better days. I absolutely think that each will get the hook early, which will ultimately help in pushing this total “over,” sooner rather than later. The visitors go with Mike Fulmer, while the home side goes with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: Fulmer is so far 3-9 with a 4.32 ERA. He looked decent against the tooth-less White Sox in his first start back from the DL last week, but overall it’s been a disappointing season for Fulmer, who is just 2-3 with a terrible 5.51 ERA on the road.

Duffy is so far 7-11 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits with two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Rays on Thursday. It was his first start back from the DL as well. Note that in two starts prior to getting injured he was shelled for 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in early August.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine road day games in which the line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I had a play on the “under” when these two squared off against each other last week in the Phillies’ eventual late inning victory. Clearly these are two of the best in the World going head-to-head, but I think these talented hitting line-ups will produce just enough offense this time around to push the total above this tiny number.

The pitchers: Max Scherzer is 16-6 with a 2.13 ERA. He gave up two runs off two hits with four walks while striking out ten over seven innings in the 2-0 loss to Philadelphia last week.

Aaron Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.13 ERA. He went eight scoreless against the Nats and he’s now gone 3-0 while posting 25 strikeouts over his last 21 innings of work.

The pick: Clearly it’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these guys. But note that the Phillies have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last ten night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +175 range. This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups with relative “no names” going head to head on the mound and this is obviously one of them. I think runs will be plentiful this evening. The visitors go with Thomas Pannone, while the home side goes with Josh Rogers.

The pitchers: Pannone is so far 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He made three appearances out of the bullpen for his major league debut last week, but he’s been recalled now to make his very first start. Clearly the sky is the limit for Pannone, but I think he’ll take a small step back in this difficult venue.

Ramirez was supposed to get the start here, but Baltimore has made a late Tuesday morning change to Josh Rogers, who makes his MLB season debut today. The sky may be the limit for Rogers, but I think he’ll struggle against this difficult and determined opponent.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night road games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I’m banking on these starting pitchers getting chased early and for this total going “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. When it’s all said and done though, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The teams: Severino is so far 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA. After an almost unstoppable start to the 2018 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth over the last month and a half, but he does enter off a decent start against the punch-less White Sox. Severino has been elite, but note he does possess a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Bundy is so far 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA. The veteran finished 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, but he’s been a complete disaster this season. Especially at home where he is a poor 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 22 night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +250 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups and this is one of them in my opinion. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this inter-league contest on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada.

The teams: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.06 ERA. While he’s struggled a bit of late, overall the hard-throwing right-hander has been solid overall this year, especially on the road where he owns a sharp 2.77 ERA to this point.

Estrada is so far 7-9 with a 4.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back decent outings and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games this season with a 2-2, 3.11 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Jays have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of their last 11 day home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is too high, play the “under.”