This is not the same Kansas City team that faced the 49ers in the Super Bowl 4 years ago. This year's Chiefs are a defensive team. That's how they got here. They allowed 17.3 points a game in the regular season and they're allowing just 13.7 ppg in the playoffs.

San Francisco can make the same claim. The 49ers allowed 17.5 ppg in the regular season, the fewest of any NFC team. Though the playoff numbers aren't as impressive, you just saw their defense stiffen and hold the Lions to 7 second half points.

The Chiefs have now seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with 46 or fewer points. Only 1 of their last 17 games has finished with more than 48. This will not be a high scoring game and the total is too high. Go with the Under!

The Chiefs went over the total in their game against the Bills. Depending on the time and place, the Ravens game either landed right on the total or went over it. With those games having quite a lot of points, Sunday's AFC Championship O|U line is quite high. Too high.

We're talking about the top 2 scoring defenses in the NFL. In the regular season, Baltimore allowed 16.5 points a game. KC allowed 17.3. They've also allowed the fewest points in the playoffs. The Ravens allowed 10 points. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 15.5.

These teams are going to pound the rock, especially the Ravens. It's not always conventional but they run more than any team. They ran 42 times last week against Houston. That keeps the clock moving and under the total on Sunday.

The Buccaneers were involved in a shootout with the Texans back in Week 9. The final score was 39-37 as the game turned wild in the 4th quarter with 31 points. That was the only time all season that Tampa allowed more than 27 points. On the season, the Bucs allowed just 19.1 points, tied for 6th best. They have also really turned it up in recent weeks. They held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards in the Wildcard Rd and they allowed less than 12 points a game over the final 3 games of reg. season. In the final game, they pitched a shutout.

Tampa coach Todd Bowles said this of his defense: "We've gotten tougher over the course of the past few weeks. Everybody has finally gotten back and playing at the same time. ... Communication has gotten a lot better, everybody's trusting each other next to them and they're playing for each other."

The Lions defense held the Rams to 6 second half points last week. They also held the Bucs to 6 points, a 20-6 win, during the regular season. Tampa had only 13 first downs and 251 total yards. That total was only 44. This one is a lot higher. Too high. Go with the Under.

The Texans have looked pretty good but they are now on the road and facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. No team allowed fewer points than the 16.5 ppg allowed by the Baltimore Ravens.

The Texans held the Browns to 14 points and 324 yards. They weren't dominant defensively like the Ravens but ranked in the top half of all defenses for points and yards allowed.

In addition to allowing the fewest number of points, the Ravens led the league in rushing. They will keep the clock ticking and the Houston offense on the sidelines. Points will not come easily in this game. Go with the Under.

The Eagles offense stumbled down the stretch. The Eagles scored 10 points last game and that marked the 4th time in 6 games that they failed to reach the 20 point mark. The injury to Brown, their top receiver, is a big blow to the offense.

The Bucs got here by playing defense. They allow only 19.1 points a game while scoring just 20.5. Both quarterbacks are playing at less than 100%.

The Eagles won 25-11 when the teams met in the regular season. That was when Philadelphia was scoring with ease. The Eagles won't get that many this evening and the Bucs are likely to also have trouble scoring. The line is generous. Go with the Under.

With the game being moved from Sunday to Monday and that bringing improved weather, the total has climbed by quite a lot. It shot up over key numbers like 34 and 37 and is now too high.

The weather may be improved but its still not going to be pleasant. This game will feature an extra amount of pounding the ball on the ground.

Josh Allen said as much: "The wind may move the ball a little bit. Typically, it's going to be, with weather like this, a game that both teams are going to run the ball, and it's going to be very possession-limited ..."

Both teams were 11-6 to the under and both are coming off a strong defensive effort which stayed below the total. Go with the Under.

The Chiefs transformed themselves into a defensive team this year. The offense wasn't as potent and the defense picked up the slack. The Dolphins were explosive most of the season but their offense slowed down the stretch. Those are the biggest reasons why we're now working with a total in the low/mid 40s, as compared to a total of 51.5 when these teams faced each other back in November. That's a big drop. Too big!

It'll be cold but this is still Patrick Mahomes vs. Tua Tagovailoa. Mahomes still has Kelce to throw to and Tagovailoa's top target, Tyreek Hill will be playing his first game back at Arrowhead. These are some of the best offensive players on the planet and they won't be stopped by the cold.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on offense but their defense is severely depleted. They've given up 77 points in their last 2 games alone. Their games average more than 52 points. This one will finish over the low total! ***WILDCARD TOY***

Both these teams got a lot better as the season progressed. The Bears started terribly but have currently won back-to-back games and have victories in 4 of their last 5. The Packers entered November with a 2-5 record but now find themselves at 8-8 and in control of their own playoff destiny.

A big part of the reason for the improvement comes on the defensive side. Since Week 11, the Bears have allowed fewer than 20 points four times. They have 16 takeaways during that time. In fact, the Bears defense now leads the NFL in interceptions.

The Packers just held the Vikings to 10 points to close out 2023. Minnesota managed just 211 yards.

The last meeting at Lambeau finished with 37 points. With both offenses missing some important players, the final score will again stay below the total! ***NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH***

Still angry about last week's controversy, the Lions say they want to win. The Vikings technically still have hope. Realistically, however, this game likely doesn't mean much. The Vikings won't be going to the playoffs and the Lions will be locked into the #3 seed.

Nick Mullens is back at QB and he threw 4 picks last time these teams met. He will miss throwing to Hockensen. The reliable tight-end had 4 receptions for 58 yards in the first meeting.

For all the bluster, I'm projecting a lower scoring game. Detroit is off a 20-19 loss. Minnesota managed only 10 points last week and has scored just 71 total points over the last 5 games, an average of 14. Vikings are 5-3 to the under on the road. This one will also stay under! ***EARLY RISER***

First game went over but these teams are not the same ones that faced each other at beginning of the season. Both offenses are missing a lot of important weapons. First game had a total of 40.5 This one is much higher. That gives us a lot more room to maneuver.

The Texans defense has come to life. Last week, Houston allowed only 3 points. They gave up just 11 first downs and 187 total yards. Last road game, the Texans allowed only 16 points.

The Colts last 3 games have all finished with 43 points or less. They are going to want to run the ball. The Texans are strong at stopping the run. This will add up to a low-scoring defensive battle. ***AFC TOM***

This is obviously a very low total. Too low! Playing at a very fast pace, the Volunteers average 31.5 points and their games average 53.5. They scored 48 last game and allowed 38 and 36 in their previous 2 games.

The Volunteers had a game back in mid-October which finished with 33 points. Other than that, every other one of their games produced at least 43 points. The Vols QB (Milton) opted-out but his replacement (Iamaleava) is a bigtime player who will assume the starting role next season. Offensively, they're still in good shape. However, the Tennessee secondary did take a lot of hits and is depleted.

The time off will allow Iowa's offense time to prepare. Again, Tennessee's defense isn't 100%. The Hawkeyes have scored 21, 17, 49 and 27 their past 4 bowl games. Even if they get 14-17 here, which they will, the Volunteers will be able to do the rest. ***BOWL TOM***

The Tigers were an over machine all year. They're a little short-handed offensively for the bowl game though and they face a defensive-minded Wisconsin team which has trouble scoring.

Badger games average 41.7 points. The Wisconsin offense is also short-handed and won't be able to take advantage of a mediocre Tiger defense.

On the season, the Badgers were 8-4 to the under. They were only underdogs once. That game had a total of 48 and finished with 34. Go with the Under! ***EARLY RISER***

Detroit has clinched the division but these teams are both still alive in the Wildcard hunt. The winner of this game will have a reasonable chance. The loser will pretty much have no hope. I'm not going to speculate on who wins. Instead, I'm going with the over.

The Packers are 5-0 to the over their last 5 games. Each of those games had at least 46 points. The last one had 63.

The Vikings are 2-0 to the over their last 2 games. Both finished with more than 50.

This season's first meeting was low-scoring. That also happened last year. The second game was much higher-scoring, finishing with 58 points last New Year's Day. This number is too low. Go with the Over. ***NFC North TOM***

Two strong defenses. Clemson allows less than 20 points a game. Kentucky allows less than 25, despite playing in the SEC and facing high-scoring teams like Georgia and Tennessee, as well as other top tier teams like Alabama and Missouri.

Two mediocre offenses. Neither team averaged 30 points this season. That's unheard of for Clemson in recent years. The Tigers had averaged 35.5 ppg in four years before Trevor Lawrence and they averaged roughly 44 ppg in the 3 years with Lawrence. Last year, they had 33.2 ppg. This is not the same Clemson offense from years past.

Both offenses are dealing with some injuries. Clemson WR Beaux Collins entered the portal and transferred to Notre Dame.

Last meeting also came in late December, quite a few years ago now. It finished with a score of 21-13. History repeats itself with another Under. ***Early Riser***

It's a low number. Not low enough. These are two of the best defenses in football. Neither offense is consistent.

The Jets offense is especially anemic. They managed to score 30 in each of their last 2 home games but they scored 0 last time that they were on the road. They average just 12 points per road game.

Cleveland home games are lower-scoring than Clev. road games. The Browns allow only 13.1 points per game here, scoring just 20.5.

The Browns have allowed less than 300 yards in five of their past six games. The Browns rank 1st against the pass (160.1 yards per game), 1st in total defense (260.3 yards per game), 1st in yards per play (4.46 yards) and 1st in interception rate (3.46 percent).

With Flacco and Semian projected to be behind center, this game goes under. ***TNF TOM***

Both defenses are better than advertised. Miami allows 22.1 points. Rutgers allows 21. Remember, Rutgers faced Michigan and Ohio State. Miami faced teams like UNC, Clemson and Florida State. So, those defensive numbers are pretty strong.

Rutgers can have trouble scoring. Before scoring 24 last game, the Knights had scored 16, 0 and 6 points in their previous 3 games.

NC State held Miami to 6 points in a 20-6 win in November. So, the Hurricanes can be stopped. They will be led by a QB making his first start and who didn't take a single snap this year.

Rutgers is going to methodically chew clock and play conservatively. This will lead to a low score. Go with the Under. **Rockstar**

USC games mostly went over the total this season. Their final 2 games did go under though and this isn't the same team that was flying over at the start of the season. Nearly 20 Trojam players have opted out, including Caleb Williams. Instead of a Heisman Trophy winner, they'll have a QB (Miller Moss) making his first start. That's obviously a pretty big deal. The Cardinals can really play defense. They allow 307.4 yards per game, 16th in the country, entering the bowl season. They give up only 19.7 points a game. Ashton Gillotte (11 sacks) is an elite defensive end who will give the inexperienced USC pivot problems. The Cardinals are without some of their own top offensive players. Running back Jawhar Jordan (1,128 yards, 15 touchdowns) and wide receiver Jamari Thrash (63 catches, 858 yards) both opted out out to focus on the NFL draft. The Cardinals scored only 6 points last game. This is a chance for the USC defense to prove its better than the stats suggest. Go with the Under! ***BOWL TOY***

Both teams, particularly Tulane, are severely depleted. That makes the regular season stats somewhat meaningless. The Green Wave will be without their coach and without their starting QB. Other missing players include Tulane's top wide receiver. The Hokies are also missing some players but both teams have their top running backs. That's going to lead to a lot of rushing plays. The Hokies will go against a tough Tulane run defense, which ranked in the top 10. V-Tech defender Dorian Strong chose not to opt out and said this: "I know that the League (NFL) is there for me but there are risks coming back but I think I made the right decision for myself." This will be a defensive game. Go Under. ***Rockstar***

There is little reason to expect any defense in this one. Texas State averages 36 points and allows 33.8. That's an average of nearly 70 per game. Rice games have also been high-scoring. The Owls score 30.3 and allow 26.7. QB AJ Padget has been here before. The Bobcats last 2 games had scores of 96 and 108. If the Owls want to be competitive, they are going to need to keep pace. Look for the final score to fly over the total! ***TOP TIER TUESDAY***

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 50 points. Both teams allow more than 24 points a game. These teams play again in New York in 2 weeks. That game might be low-scoring but this one won't be. The Eagles are 5-1 to the over at home. Their only game which didn't go over the total here still finished with 48 points. Their other 5 home games had scores of 62, 65, 51, 71 and 61. The Giants have played 2 divisional games since the start of November and both finished with 50 or more points. Go with the Over! ***NFC EAST TOM***

Given the Patriots' offensive woes, it would be pretty easy to make a case for the under. New England ranks last in the league in points per game. That's been factored into the total though. This is the lowest O|U line on the board. Its lower than yesterday's game. Its lower than any today and its lower than any tomorrow. Next Thursday's game between the Jets and Browns has opened with a similarly low number. That's 2 great defenses though. The Patriots don't fall into that category. The Broncos certainly don't. Denver just allowed 42 points last game. The Broncos allow more than 25 points per game, the Patriots allow more than 21. Five of Denver's last 6 games have finished with at least 39. This is number is too low! ***SNF TOY***

San Jose State pitched a shutout when it played here in Hawaii during the regular season. It was the Spartans best defensive effort of the season. The 35-0 victory stayed well below the total. Coastal Carolina will also struggle to score without their superstar quarterback. Their last game was high-scoring but the Chanticleers were 8-4 to the under on the season. They were held to 17 or less a few times but they also allowed 7 or less more than once. 2 of the last 3 Hawaii Bowls have finished with 48 or less. Make that 3 out of 4.

This season's first game had a final score of 16-10. Saturday's game will also be low-scoring. This is a late December divisional game. Both banged-up offense is led by a backup quarterback. Browning has impressed but he will be without Ja'Marr Chase. Over their last 5 games, the Steelers have scored 10, 16, 10, 18 and 13 points. The defense struggled last week but had previously held 8 of 9 opponents to 21 or less. Both defenses are dealing with some injuries but both will come to play. Rudolph's last start finished with 32 points, a 16-16 tie. This game will have a lot of running plays and that's going to keep the score down. Go with the under. ***AFC NORTH TOY***

This total is too low. These same teams met a little over a year ago. The game went over with a final score of 27-20. Neither team had trouble moving the ball. With a little better red zone efficiency, the score could have been higher. Entering Thursday, Los Angeles has been hot on offense for quite some time and New Orleans can now make the same claim. The Saints have scored 24, 28 and 28 points their past 3 games. They scored 9 touchdowns in 10 red zone trips. The Rams have scored 28, 31, 36 and 37 points their past four. Stafford is playing great, Cooper Kupp is peaking and the running game is thriving. This game will go over! ****TNF Rockstar***

Total has come down and that's providing us with value. Marshall games average more than 51 points. UTSA games average more than 56! UTSA has scored 34 or more in 7 of the last 8 games, going over 40 in 4 of those. Marshall combined with for 56 points last game and is only a month removed from a 71 point game with Georgia Southern. Last 3 Frisco Bowls have had 92, 62 and 67 points. This game goes over! ***TOTAL OF WEEK***

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 51 points. Seattle games average 46. The Eagles offense is very difficult to stop but their defense has allowed 33, 42 and 34 points their last 3 games. Similarly, Seattle has allowed 28, 41 and 31 points its last 3. Both defenses saw some important players miss practice this week. The Eagles are healthy on offense. The Seahawks hope to have Geno Smith back to lead their offense. The extra day's rest helps his chances. Smith or Lock, the Seahawks know they are going to need a lot of points. This one goes over! ***NFC TOW***

Total is too low. Neither defense is very good. The Hilltoppers allow 28.2 points a game. The Monarchs allow 27.8. Both teams allow more on the road. Western Kentucky's last 3 games have finished with 67, 51 and 69 points. These schools combined for 63 points in 2021. 6 of their last 7 meetings have finished with more than 60. There are no weather issues and this will be another high-scoring games. Go with the Over. ***SUPER SMASH***

The Jets offense has had its moments but has mostly been inconsistent. Before going overboard about their 30 point effort against Houston, remember that they scored 8, 13, 6, 12, 6 and 13 points their previous 6 games. The Miami offense is dangerous but NY has the defense to slow them. The Jets rank in the top 5 in the NFL for yards allowed. The Dolphins defense is better than the general public realizes. The Dolphins allowed 2 touchdowns in the final 3 minutes last game but they had only given up 14 for the first 57 minutes of that game. Before that, they gave up 15, 13 (to the Jets) and 13 in 3 previous games. They are a top 10 defense for yards allowed. Last season, the game at NY finished with 57 points but the rematch in Miami was far lower-scoring, finishing with only 17 points. This season the game at NY finished with 47. Once again, the rematch wiull be far lower-scoring. Go with the Under! ***AFC East TOY***

The Lions scored only 13 points against Chicago last week. Now they take on a Denver defense which just allowed 7 points. The Broncos have been stingy for the past couple of months. Before holding the Chargers to 7, they allowed 19, 17, 9, 22, 20, 12 and 22 points. That's an average of 16 points allowed over their past 8 games. Although the defense has played well, the Broncos tend to have trouble scoring on the road. They've scored 24 or fewer points in every road game but one, averaging 20.7 points and only 191.3 yards of offense. 8 straight Denver games have finished with 46 or less. Go with the Under! ***Non-Conf TOM***

The Bengals offense is back. They scored 34 points in each of their last 2 games. The Vikings only managed 3 points last game but they still average 20.9 points a game on the road. The Bengals have now had 6 of their last 7 games finish with 42 or more points. Four meetings have all had 40 or more points the most recent (2021) finishing with 51. Both games at Cincinnati finished with more than 50. No weather issues. This game goes over! ***NFL Dominator***

I played on the Chargers in this season's earlier game. It had an O|U line of 49 points. This one is much, much lower. The biggest difference is that Herbert played in the first game and that he may not in this one. He's questionable at the time of this writing. Coach Staley said Monday: "There’s a lot of information that we’re gathering right now, but he's as tough as they come. We’re gonna make sure that whatever it is, we’re going to do what’s best for Justin long term." Remember that Herbert was only 13 of 24 for 167 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the first game. He did add 2 rushing TDs but still his performance wasn't one of his best. But its because of him, primarily, that the total has come down so much. That's giving us value on the over. Of course, Herbert's not the only factor. The Raiders scoring 0 points last week also works in our favor to bring the line down. The last 9 meetings have all finished with 41 or more. With or without Herbert, this number is too low! ***AFC West TOY***

In my opinion, this number is too low. Both defenses are mediocre, both teams allow more than 20 points a game. The Vikings offense stalled last game but had previously been firing on all cylinders. The Raiders just had three straight games AFC teams, their most recent finishing with 48 points. The three games came against two playoff teams in KC and Miami and a really good defensive team in the New York Jets. Last time they faced an NFC opponent, the Vikings scored 30. Both offenses will have areas where they can enjoy success against these defenses. All 4 meetings over the years finished with at least 44 points. I've got this one penciled in for at least that many once again. ***NFC TOY***

If not for all the low-scoring primetime games, we could be looking at a higher Sunday Night total. As it is, we've got a nice low number. KC scored 31 last game. The game finished with 48 points. The Chiefs have scored 31 or more in 2 of their last 3 against the Packers. Green Bay scored 29 last game. Packers coach Matt LaFleur played things more aggressively after expressing remorse for previously being too conservative with his play-calling. The game finished with 51 points. That makes 3 straight GB games that have finished with at least 42 points. This one finishes with more than that! ***Non-Conf TOW***

Games between these teams at Carolina have been lower-scoring but games in Tampa have been higher-scoring. Carolina's last five visits to Tampa have finished with scores of 41, 63, 48, 58 and 54 points. The last 4 of those all went over the total. Last season's game at Carolina had 24 points but the game at Tampa had 54. This season, Tanpa games average 39.9 points. Carolina games average 42.2 points. Getting rid of Frank Reich can only help the offense. The emphasis will be on improving scoring. The final score will finish above the low total! ***NFC South TOY***

Michigan averages 37.6 points a game. That's more than this total is set at. It's entirely possible that the Wolverines exceed this total all by themselves. They're favored by more than 3 touchdowns. So, they're going to expected to score more than that. Remember they scored at least 30 in every game but one. Iowa is all about defense. That we know. But the Hawkeyes also know that they will need to score points, if they want to avoid total embarrassment. The last meeting had 41 points and the one before that had 45. The 45-point game (42-3 Michigan) was right here in the Big 10 Championship game. Last year's Big 10 title game had 65 points. This game goes over the low number!

Miami is here because of defense. The RedHawks permit only 16.3 points a game. Toledo is also stout on defense. The Rockets concede 20.4 points a game. The regular season game finished with 38 points. The RedHawks held the Rockets scoreless in the second half but couldn't erase a 21-3 halftime deficit. Toledo was in this game last year and beat Ohio 17-7. That game finished way below the total. Defense rules the day once again! ***MAC TOY**

Fields is back and the Bears offense is looking better. The defense continues to struggle. Chicago's last game saw 57 points scored. Vikings scored 27 last home game, a 46 point game against New Orleans. Minnesota home games average 44 but Bears' road games average 49.3. Bears last three visits here have had scores of 51, 48 and 60. This one goes over! **NFC North TOM**

Two non-conference teams. Neither is going to the playoffs. Why not throw caution to the wind? Neither defense is looking too good. The Titans gave up 34 points last week; the 6th straight time that they've allowed 20 or more. Carolina allowed 33 last game. That was the 4th time that the Panthers gave up 33 or more in their last 8 games. The Titans have scored 27 or more in 3 of their 4 home games. Their last game here finished with more than 50 points. It also came against an NFC South opponent. This one flies over the low total! ***NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

Neither team is very good on defensive. Both will be happy to face another defensively-challenged foe. The Huskies allow more than 30 points a game. The Minutemen allow more than 40 points a game! That has led to an 8-2 over record for UMass. The last time that the Huskies played a road game where they weren't a double-digit underdog, they combined with Rice for 69 points. This will be another shootout! ***Saturday Super Shootout***

Neither defense is pitching many shutouts these days. Tennessee has allowed 20 or more points in 5 straight games. Jacksonville allowed 34 last game and has given up at least 20 in 4 of 5 games. The Titans only division game finished with 39 points but the Jaguars' three divisional games have finished with 52, 54 and 57 points. The Titans like to play conservatively at times but they will have to throw caution to the wind if they want to keep up with the Jaguars. Five of the last 7 meetings finished with more than 40 points and last year's 2 games averaged 47. This one goes OVER! ***AFC South TOY***

Lots of room to work with here. The Eagles have been involved in some recent high-scoring games, driving this week's total up. They will be up against a low-scoring team here. The Monarchs only scored 10 points last game. They average 24.4 points a game but that average comes down to 21.2 points per game on the road. Last year was the first meeting. The total was in the 60s but the score was 28-23. The Monarchs likely won't be as successful passing the ball in this game as they were in that one. The Eagles ran the ball 50 times. They will keep the clock moving again and the final score will stay below the big total! ***Sun Belt TOY***

Ravens offense can't be stopped. Baltimore has scored more than 30 points in 4 straight games. Bengals scored 27 last game and have gone over the 30 mark each of last 2 road games. The earlier meeting finished with 51 points. Bengals gave up 20 or more yards 17 different times last game. The Ravens had trouble stopping both the run and the pass. This will be another shootout! ***TNT TOM***

Ohio games have been low-scoring. So, the total might seem a little high. It's not. Central Michigan games average 54.8 points. The Chippewas scored 28 points last game and 37 the game before that. Problem is that they also allowed 38 and 31. They've allowed 30 or more in seven of their 10 games. So, we've got an offense which is playing well but a defense which has been bad all year. Last 2 meetings both had 57 points and last 4 all finished with 47 or more. Ohio will break out with 30 plus points and CMU will contribute the rest. This game goes Over! ***Conf Crusher***

Lowest of today's 3 totals. Far too low! Akron games produce, on average, 43.4 points. Eastern Michigan games average 44! Last year's game had 62 points! The year before they had 56. Akron has only played 2 home games since October. They had scores of 69 and 58. Eastern Michigan's last 2 games had scores of 72 and 66. This one sails over! ***MAC TOW***

It may seem that stand-alone NFL games have been going under at a pretty good rate. Previous results from other games have nothing to do with this one though. In this case, the number is too low. The Jets defense is pretty good but they still allow 19.5 points per game. The Raider defense allows 21.4 points a game. Last time these teams met they scored 59 points. The total was 48.5. The Raiders scored 30 last game, their offense coming alive. They will build on that and the Jets will be better than they were last game. This game goes Over the low total! ***AFC TOW

An under streak by the Giants has allowed for a very low total. The Week 1 meeting had a total of 44.5. This one is below 40. That's too low, even with the sorry state of the Giants. Tommy DeVito may be just what the Giants need for a game to go over. He went 15-of-20 for 175 yards with a touchdown in relief. He may help the Giants offense but he could also turn the ball over and give Dallas easy points. The Cowboy's last game finished with 51 points. The Cowboys' previous game finished with 63 points. Seven of the Cowboys' 8 games have produced 40 or more points. The other had 37. The Cowboys might go over this total by themselves but they won't need to. *** NFC East TOY

It may seem that stand-alone NFL games have been going under at a pretty good rate. Previous results from other games have nothing to do with this one though. In this case, the number is too low. Did you know that Indianapolis games are averaging 52.7 points this season. Not only do the Colts score a lot, but they also give up a lot. They're 26.9 points allowed per game is 4th worst in the NFL. Patriots aren't much better as they allow 25.3 points a game, 7th worst. Over is 8-2 last 10 meetings and 9 of those games finished with 44 or more. Go with the Over! **AFC Early Bird

The Huskies don't play much defense. They gave up 51 points last game. The Dukes scored 42 last game. That was the 3rd time they've scored more than 40 since Sept. 23rd. It's unlikely but they have the capability to go over this total by themselves. They won't need to though because UConn will also score. Before scoring just 3 at Tennessee, they scored 33, 38, 21 and 14 in their previous four. The Huskies should contribute at least 14 again and the Dukes will more than take care of the rest. Go with the Over. ***2023 NCAAF TOY

A low total provides opportunity on Wednesday's MAC board. Akron games average more than 46 points. Miami Ohio games average nearly 49 points. Akron's last game finished with 48 points. Miami's last game finished with 46. Seven of the past 10 meetings finished with 41 or more points. Miami will score 30 or more and Akron will add in the rest. ***MAC Conf. Crusher

This total is simply too low. It's by far the lowest these teams have had against each other over the last 10 meetings. The Cardinals average 45.1 points in their game. The Huskies average 48. Ball State's last game finished with 45. NIU's last game finished at 68! Last year's game finished with 82 points. The 2021 game had 59 points. The 2020 game had 51. This one flies over the total! ****MAC TOW

The Chargers can score points with the best of them but they often can't stop the other team from doing the same thing. Their games average 48.9 points. Nine of their 10 games in 2023 have finished above the 40 point mark. The other one nearly did, landing on 37. The Chargers and Jets last faced each other in November of 2020, Justin Herbert's rookie year. The total was set at 47. The game finished with 62 points! Herbert threw for 366 yards (277 in the first half!) and three touchdowns. Keenan Allen set a franchise-record 16 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Though this Jets defense is better than that one, Herbert will have success again tonight. This will be the Jets' third game against AFC West teams this season. The first two finished with 43 and 52 points, both going over. This one will do the same! ***MNF toy

When the Bengals and Bills played each other in the playoffs, the weather wasn't good. There was lots of snow and the temperature was below zero. Despite the conditions and despite playing without some pieces of their offense, the Bengals still put up big 27 points and more than 400 yards. The Bills couldn't get going until it was too late. No snow in tonight's rematch and both offenses will benefit. Bills are averaging more than 30 points their last 2 road games and 27.8 points a game on the season. Bengals started slowly on offense this season but have gone over the 30 mark in 2 of their last 3. Last nine games Bills were underdogs all went over. Scores of 78, 54, 60, 58, 62, 82, 60, 62 and 78! This will make 10 straight. ***AFC TOY

I get it. These are bad offenses. Plus, Iowa has a really good defense. Knowing that a lot of bettors will like the under at any line and that few will play the over in this game, the oddsmakers have had to post a really low total. Too low! Northwestern just combined with Maryland for 60 points. QB Sullivan, who has breathed life into the Wildcat offense, passed for 265 yards (2 touchdowns) and ran for another 56. Iowa scored 33 points in last year's game, nearly going over the total of 37 by itself. Final score was 33-13. The Hawkeyes just announced that their offensive coordinator (Brian Ferentz) won't be back next year. They're going to want to show that their offense is better than people think. A Wildcat team that gives up an average of 29.5 points per game over their last 6 will allow for that! Northwestern's last football at Wrigley Field? a 47-point affair against Purdue. Go with the Over! ***big ten toy

You don't regularly get totals in the 30s for MAC Conference games. Not between these teams at least! When they faced each other last year, the O/U line was 62.5. The 2021 meeting had an O/U line of 72.5! The year before that, the total was "only" 60 and the Golden Flashes and Zips combined to score 104 points! Six of the past seven meetings, including each of the three I mentioned, have produced at least 38 points. This year, Kent State games average 45.5 points. Akron games average 44.8 points. Last night's MAC games both finished well above this number. The Buffalo/Toledo game had zero fourth quarter points, due to the blowout nature of the score, but the game still finished with 44. The other game (Central Michigan / Northern Illinois) finished with 68. This number is too low! ***mac TOM

The scoring has dried up late in some of these primetime games, last night being a "prime" example. Thirty-one points were scored in the first half but only 12 in the second. Tonight's game should see the teams continue to pile up points the entire way. The Raiders gave up 30 points to the Bears last game. Fourth quarter had 18 points. The Lions gave up 38 to the Ravens! The Lions scored 42 points in their last home game. 28 points were scored in the 4th. Again, we shouldn't have to worry about scoring drying up. Their games here are averaging 53.3 points. The last meeting finished with 55 and this one will also crack the 50 mark. **mnf master-class

Recent Chargers games have slipped beneath the Vegas total. Otherwise, this total could be in the 50's. Tonight's game will be higher-scoring. These are not good defenses. Chargers allow 2nd most yards to opposing offenses, 406.8 per game. Chargers also allow 25.8 points a game. Bears allow 26.9. The Chicago offense has come to life. Bears have scored 28 or more in 3 of their last 4. Their last road game resulted in a 40-20 win. Over is now 6-1 in Chicago games. The Bears are going to keep scoring. The heavily favored Chargers are going to score even more. The end result? Another Chicago Over. ***Non-Conf. TOW

Both teams have been involved in some low-scoring games, keeping and bringing the total down. This represents the lowest total for a Viking game all season. Both are still seeing their games average greater than 43 though. Jordan Love has gone through some growing pains of late but a game against a mediocre Viking defense will give him a chance to get right. He'll have to be effective to keep pace with Cousins. The Vikings just threw for 378 yards (452 overall) against SF! Minnesota's last 3 visits to Lambeau have produced 58, 47 and 50 points. We'll take advantage of the low number and go with the Over. *NFC North TOY

Cowboys are off a game where 82 points were scored. Their last 2 have both finished with more than 70 and their last 4 have all produced at least 50. Three of those went over the 60 mark. The Bearcat defense was strong at the start of the season but has now surrendered 30 or more points in back-to-back-to-back games and four of the past 5. Cincinnati offense put up 450 yards in last week's loss vs Baylor. They also accumulated 498 yards in their last road game, a 35-27 loss at BYU. The Cowboys will score a lot but the Bearcats won't go away. The end result? A game that goes over the total. *Big 12 TOY

Charlotte games have been low-scoring but this is a historically low total for a game between the Owls and 49'ers. Eight meetings between these teams. The O/U lines all fell in a range from 54.5 to 65.5. Six of the past seven finished with at least 43 points. Five of those finished with 47 or more. Last year, they combined for 56 points. On the subject of 56 points, FAU scored that many all by itself the last time it was on the road. FAU games are averaging more than 49 on the season. This one will get over the small number. *AAC TOW

Thursday Night football from Lane Stadium is always a good time. So was last year's game Syracuse. It finished with 77 points even though the total was only 45. VT has scored 30 and 38 its last 2 home games. Defenses aren't playing as well as you might think. Hokies have given up 21 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Syracuse has permitted 40 or more in back-to-back games and has conceded 30 or more in 3 straight. This one's going over the total! *ACC TOY

Both teams are consistently scoring. NMSU scored 34, 27 and 28 last three games. LA Tech has scored 24, 28 and 23 its last three games. At home, the Bulldogs are averaging 34.5 points but also giving up 28.3. Off their bye last year, the Bulldogs next game finished with 72 points. The O/U line for that game was 52.5. This one will also result in a shootout. Go with the Over. *CUSA TOW

This total could easily be lower. The Arizona offense has come down to earth, a lack of talent becoming evident.The Cardinals have scored 16, 20 and 9 points in their last three games. Seattle managed only 13 last week. The last two Seahawk games have both finished with 30 or less. When Arizona played here last season, the score was 19-9. The year before, it was 23-13. The Cardinals will again have trouble scoring and that will lead to this final score staying below the total. *NFC West TOY

Stanford fans won't soon forget last week's stunning comeback. That was against a porous Colorado defense. Now the Cardinal will be facing one of the toughest defenses in the country. Scoring will be extremely difficult, let alone coming back. Stanford only scored 13 against UCLA last year and may not even get that many in this one. The Bruins' defense is that good. Remember, in the game before Colorado, the Cardinal scored only 6 points. Off their previous loss, the Bruins' next game stayed below the total by double-digits. This one will also stay under! *Pac 12 TOY

Western Michigan has played seven games. Five of seven went over the total. All seven finished with greater than 50 points. The Broncos have scored 21, 28, 42 and 31 points their last four. But they've given up more than 40 in three of four past six. Ohio has scored 38 or more in 2 of its last 3. Six of seven meetings have finished with 52 or more and the last game here finished with 71. This one goes Over. *Run and Shoot

The Mustangs are going to score early and often. They scored 69 in a game earlier. The Mustangs scored 31 and 34 their last two games. Now they get to go up against the Owls, who have allowed more than 40 points in four straight games. The Owls did score 34 in their last game here. Even if down, they won't just quit trying to score. The Mustangs' last five games against Temple saw them score: 59, 60, 45, 45 and 47! Those are just SMU scores, not combined. Every one of those games got to at least 65. All five went Over the total. This one also will. *AAC TOW

Saints have been an under cash machine this season. As a result, we've got a really low total for Thursday's game against Jacksonville. It's important to understand that Jaguar games average 44 points. The Jax offense has gotten better and better. They scored 31 in the opener but then dropped all the way to 9 in their next game. After that they went from 9 to 17 to 23 to 25 to 37. It's fair to say that they're clicking on all cylinders. The Saints didn't score many last game but they did have well over 400 yards of offense. Also, they scored 34 in their previous game. They'll be able to move the ball and score on TNF. The Jaguars have played here twice in the past. Both those games finished with 65 points. This one might not produce that number of points but it'll produce more than enough to get us over this low total. *Thursday Night Total Of The Year

Both teams effectively moved the ball and scored points in their last game. Both will do so again tonight. NMSU scored 27 last game. All the scoring came in the first half. The Aggies probably could have scored more if they didn't take their foot off the gas. They still put up 458 total yards. They were also well above the 400-yard mark in their previous game. They scored 34 against FIU in that one. The Miners also scored 27 last game. They had 441 yards of offense. It marked the second time in three games that UTEP scored at least 27 points. Look for both offenses to enjoy success and the final score to go over the total. *Total Takedown

A total in the 50's gives us a lot of room to stay under and that's the way I'm going this Monday. These teams are both known more for their offenses but there is also plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers kept the Raiders to 17 points last game but only scored 24. Off a bad loss to SF, Dallas will want to improve on defense. Off only previous loss, the Cowboys gave up just 3 points in their next game. These teams last meet in 2021. The total was 55 but they finished with 37. The previous three meetings before that one had scores of 34, 51 and 37. That's an average of 39.75 for the past four meetings. This one won't reach 50. *MNF TOM

Low number. Much lower thanks to the Jones injury. Forget Jones for a minute, the Bills can score this many themselves. Don't believe me? Ask the Dolphins. The Bills put up 48 points against them. Before that, they scored 37 and 38 against the Commanders and Raiders. The Giants have allowed 24 or more in seven straight games, 30 or more in two of their last three. Heck, they're allowing an average of more than 30 per game. As mentioned, Daniel Jones is out. But is that really a bad thing? The Giants were 1-4 with Jones behind center. Tyrod Taylor is a capable veteran. Having started 43 games for the Bills, he'll have a chip on his shoulder when playing his former team. At the least, he'll help to light a spark. Buffalo will score big and the Giants will do "enough." This game goes Over! *NFL TOM

Some might say that all signs point to an under. Baltimore is off 3 straight unders. Tennessee is, too. Games across the pond are often different though. If you haven't noticed, these games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the only stadium designed specially for NFL games outside of North America, a tendency to be quite high-scoring. Last week's game here produced 45 points. The opposite has been the case in the games at Wembley Stadium. The last four Wembley games have all finished with 38 or less. The six games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all finished with 43 or more. Both offenses are filled with talent and capable of more than they've shown. This will be on display, the final score going Over. *AFC TOW

LSU has been money for the over all season. That comes to an end Saturday. With all the LSU games going over, the totals have been going up and up. Games between these SEC rivals rarely reach the 60 point mark though. The past seven Auburn versus LSU games have had the following scores: 38, 43, 59, 43, 43, 50 and 31. Only one of the past 10 meetings had a total which was as high as this one. Auburn gave up 27 against Georgia and 27 at Texas A&M. Before that Auburn permitted 14 or fewer points in each of its first three games. Holding Georgia to 27 points and 19 first downs was pretty good when considering that the Bulldogs scored 49 in the game before Auburn and 51 in the one after. If Auburn can slow down Georgia, it can slow down LSU. The games may have gone over, but LSU is still loaded on defense. Points won't come easily for Auburn. Count on another low-scoring "Tiger Fight." *SEC TOY

Given how bad the visiting defense is, this number is too low. Kent State just gave up 42 at Ohio last week. The Bobcats threw for 300 yards. In their previous road game, the Golden Flashes permitted 53. They allow an average or more than 35 per game, 44.8 per game on the road. The last six meetings have all finished at 48 or higher. EMU averages 25 per game at home but arguably hasn't hosted a defense this bad. The Eagles will exceed their average which will lead to the final score finishing over the low total! *eye opener

I've got this one finishing with more than 50. These teams haven't played since 2020. So, most of the faces are different. Mike Houston, ECU's coach, is still here though. He knows that type of these games these teams typically play against each other. The last one finished with 90 points. The one before had 110! Prior to that, games had 86, 72, 69 and 83. The rivalry gets renewed on ESPN this evening and we'll see more offensive fireworks.

The Mustangs can really score. They put up 69 points in a game last month and they had 34 last game. Last year, their first under offensive minded coach Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs averaged more than 37 points and more than 473 yards. The Mustangs will look forward to facing the Pirates suspect pass defense.

We know SMU will score tonight. ECU will, too. The Pirates have scored 28, 17 and 44 their last three games. Off their previous loss, the Pirates scored 44. They average 28.5 at home. With SMU projected to finish with 30+ and ECU projected to score 20+, the final score finishes above this low total. *AAC TOY

Both these teams can really put up big numbers. Liberty averages more than 36 points per game. Jacksonville State averages more than 30. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. The scoring dried up in their last game but they'd previously been one of the top offenses in the country. The Gamecocks have an experienced offense which has found its groove. Their last two games have finished with 63 and 75 points. Liberty may win but the Flames are going to need to score a lot to do so, these Gamecocks will score. Ive got this one finishing with 60+. *totals club

They may not have Aaron Rodgers behind center but the Jets have one of the best defenses in football. Their early season defensive stats are a bit skewed by the fact that three of their first four opponents have been the Chiefs, Cowboys and Bills. All three of those teams are top 10 scoring offenses. The Broncos are better defensively than they've shown. They turned the corner defense in the second half of last week's game. It was their defense which keyed the comeback. Last year's game had 25 points. The year before had 26. This game also goes Under. *AFC TOM

This is the 119th time that these teams will meet. It's the first time since way back in 2008 that both were undefeated. That makes this game an even bigger deal than it normally is. Forget all the corn dogs and fried desserts for a minute, this is finally a big-time game! The Sooners have a score to settle. Remember last year? Scoring won't be easy for them though. Texas limited Oklahoma to 11 first downs and 195 total yards in last year's shutout. The Longhorns have a bigtime defense again this year. They went to Alabama and held the Tide to 24 points. No other opponent has scored more than 14 against them. Baylor scored six. Rice and Wyoming each had 10. Even factoring in Alabama, Texas is still allowing less than 300 yards of offense per game. The Sooners won't get blanked again but they also won't come close to matching some of the numbers they put up in this rivalry from 2018 to 2021. The Sooners are also playing top level defense. They're allowing just 10.8 points per game, tied for 4th best in all of college football. The offenses will get all the pre-game love but the defenses will rule the day!

The Wildcats crushed the Cowboys 48-0 last year. This K-State offense is again loaded and will again put up a huge number. They enter the game averaging 39.5 points on the strength of 482.5 yards of offense per game. The Cowboys aren't about to get blanked again. They never have since. They scored 27 (34-27 loss) at Iowa State last game, the third time in their past four games that they've scored more than 26 points. Wildcats may not get 48 but they should get close to their average. The Cowboys gave up 34 to the Cyclones (and 33 to South Alabama before that) and the Wildcats are far more potent. With the Cowboys chipping in another 20+, this final score finishes over the total. *Big 12 TOW

The Bears defense hasn't been good. Everyone knows that. The oddsmakers certainly do. Chicago's defensive struggles have rewarded us with an extra high total. Last year, these same teams played each other and the total was only 38.5. Remember how that game played out? It was a 12-7 final! Scoreless after the first quarter and 3-0 at halftime. Lots of kicking and poor red zone efficiency. Both teams ran the ball a lot. With both teams eager to clean up their defensive deficiencies, Thursday's game will take on a similar look and feel. Plenty of running will keep the clock ticking. When all is said and done, the final score will stay under the total. *NFC TOW

I played on the Bearkats to go Over last week's low total. One of the easier winners of my season. They had been really struggling to score and they were up against what had been an excellent Jacksonville State defense. The Sam Houston State offense came to life and made Jacksonville State's defense look decidedly ordinary. They finished with 435 yards of offense, 299 through the air and 28 points. Of course, they also gave up 35 points, after giving up 38 in their previous game. Now the Bearkats face Liberty which has scored 34, 33, 55 and 38. Averaging 40 points, the Flames rank #13 in the nation for scoring. Their 501 yards per game ranks in the top 10. They may easily go over this low number themselves. They won't need to though. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. Sam Houston State will score. With both teams doing so, this one finishes over the low total. *CUSA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

The total came down from where it started. It's my strong opinion that it is now too low. Remember, last year's O/U line was 54. Not a good defensive team, FIU has given up 38 or more points in two of its last three games. The Panthers did score 46 points (more than 500 yards of offense) against North Texas though. So, they're more than capable on offense. The Aggies are going to need to score in order to win. Their last three games came on the road but they scored 58 and 30 in their two home games. Expect this one to fly over the total! *Total Dominator

Neither of these teams has run the ball as effectively, or as regularly, as they'd like to. It's early though and we've still had a limited sample size. Its hard to run the ball when getting blown out. These are still a pair of clubs who want to run the ball and this should be a more competitive game. Saquon Barkley sounds doubtfut but the Giants still want to pound the rock. These teams combined for 40 last October, the Seahawks winning 27-13 at home. A look at the boxscore shows that yards did not come easily. The Giants had only 14 first downs and 225 total yards of offense. Seattle had 19 first downs and 277 total yards. That game fell below the total and this line is even higher. Go with the Under. *Total of Week.

The total is low for a reason. San Diego State is always tough defensively. Air Force has one of the most talented defenses in the country this year. That elite defense is typically on display when the Aztecs and Falcons get together. The last three meetings have gotten progressively lower-scoring with final scores of 21-17 in 2018, 20-14 in 2021 and 13-3 last year. The Aztecs had eight first downs and one rushing yard last year! (AF had 14 first downs and 14 passing yards.) Most of the same Falcon defenders are back from last year and the Aztecs will again have trouble moving the ball. Look for another defensive battle. *MWC TOY

This very low total says a lot about these teams. They don't possess the type of offenses that keep defensive coordinators up at night. They're still good to get over this low number though. The Gamecocks have scored 16 or more points in all four games and they're averaging just shy of 26 per game. The Bearkats have struggled to score but that's due to who and where they've been playing. Their three opponents were Houston, BYU and Air Force. A home game against Jacksonville State provides a much easier opportunity to move the ball and score points. They'll take advantage, as will their guests. Go with the Over! *CUSA TOY

Will Burrow play? My hunch is that he will. Either way, I still really like the under. Even with Burrow, the Cincinnati offense has been a mess. The Bengals rank dead last in the league, in terms of both points per game (13.5) and total yards. Fixing the problems against the Aaron Donald and the Rams won't be easy. (Remember the SB?) The Rams rank #6 in terms of yards allowed per game. The Bengals are better defensively than they've shown. Let's not forget that they allowed only 16.7 ppg last year. Only Dallas (16.5) allowed less. Points won't come easily for either team. Go with the Under! *MNF Total Of The Month

It's not a secret that the Falcons are going to feature a lot of running plays. They did so last year and they're doing so again this season. Running the ball with regularity keeps the clock moving. While the Falcons rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game, the Lions rank in the Top 10. Atlanta is running 35.5 times per game. Detroit is doing so 30.5 times. So, it's safe to assume that this game is going to see a lot of rushing. The Lions are off a high-scoring game. That reminded many of their previously poor defense and helped in providing a high total. Remember, that the Lions' opener saw them hold KC to only 20 points, a 21-20 final. This is actually a much improved defense from last year. The Falcons defense is playing well. Atlanta has allowed an average of only 17 ppg. Since last year, the Falcons have allowed 24 or fewer points in nine straight games. None of their last eight games have reached the 50 point mark and six of those finished with less than 40. This game will be low-scoring. *Sept. Total Of The Month

I set this O/U line in the low 60s. Washington has the potential to go over this number by itself. I'm not joking. The Huskies scored 56 against Boise State and they've gone over 40 in every game. They're averaging an impressive 614.7 yards of offense per game. The Huskies won't need to go over by themselves though, as Cal will contribute. The Bears scored 31 last week and they scored 58 in their only road game. They're averaging 437+ ypg. Expect some "end of the summer" fireworks, as this turns into a Saturday evening shootout! *total of week

Two teams that have yet to play to an over collide here on Saturday afternoon, but I think that the offensive floodgates will finally open up here in Week 3.

Iowa State lost 20-13 to Iowa last week, with Rocco Becht finishing with 203 yards and a TD. The Cyclones only allowed 21.2 PPG, last year, but they also won this exact game by a score of 43-10 at home over Ohio last years.

I foresee a similar final combined score here as well.

Ohio is 2-1 after holding on for a 17-10 win at FAU last weekend. The Bobcats offense was ranked in the Top 50 in 2022 with 29.7 PPG. They especially excelled at home, averaging 40 PPG at Peden Stadium. They did score 27 points in their first home game and I think they'll exceed that here.

This number is a little low, the play is the over.

Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done.

If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes.  The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me  this week.  I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under.

The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB.  Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week.  Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week.  The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week.  Take Sunday's game to go under the total!

Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. 

The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. 

Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. 

The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. 

The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* 

With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. 

That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. 

Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. 

LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense.

Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8*

I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season. 

Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.

Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though. 

As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency.

Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10*

Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.

This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim. 

The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard. 

On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. 

Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10*

This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. 

The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there.

But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. 

I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call.

The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10*

These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.

BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.

Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games. 

The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks! 

BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* 

It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. 

Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. 

Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. 

That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. 

Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10*

The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense.  Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs.  They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games.
The Bears' offense is best in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry.  They run the most often in the league, and have Fields, who is not the best option as a passer, but has the best QB wheels in the game.  That said, the Bears have been throwing the ball more lately, whether out of choice or necessity.  On defense it is a different story.  The Bears are poor vs the run, while somewhat better against the pass.  They don't blitz or pressure passers much, but have handled rushing QBs like Hurts well.  The Bears have not been able to control the game the way the Commanders did against the Eagles, but they have managed to put up points against everyone else they've played recently other than the Jets.
The Eagles are averaging 41 points over their last three games, but do give up points, 20 on average.  Fields and the Bears rush success will keep this game from being a blow-out, But I'm betting Philly will continue to rack up the points.  Take Sunday's game to go over.

The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!)

The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season.

Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under.

The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week.  Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense.  The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'.  They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass.  The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week.
I expect a cautious approach from Purdy and the 49ers offense on Sunday, possibly running the ball more than they have lately.  The Bucs' defense is just behind the 49ers in points given up, and 4th in sacks. As much attention as the QBs have received this week, Sunday's game is much more likely a battle between a pair of top defenses.  Take the total to go under.