The set-up: The 0-11 Cleveland Browns, the NFL's lone win-less team, travels to Los Angeles and StubHub Center to take on the rejuvenated LA Chargers. The Chargers opened 0-4, just like the Browns, but unlike Cleveland which has continued to lose, Los Angeles has won five of its last seven. LA will take the field just 5-6 on the season but thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs' collapse (KC has lost five of six after a 5-0 start), the Chargers are just one game out of first in the AFC West. Getting back to Cleveland, the Browns are desperately seeking their first win of 2017, as the team's two-year 'nightmare' continues (Browns are 1-26 under head coach Hue Jackson).

Cleveland: The Browns are still looking for their first victory since Christmas Eve of last year and Cleveland hasn't won a road game since October of 2015. Other than that, things are great! QB DeShone Kizer hardly looks ready for prime time, completing 53.0 percent with five TDs and 14 INTs (QB rating of 57.2). He gets little help from his running (107.4 YPG ranks 17th) and Cleveland 'brings up the rear" in averaging an NFL-low 15.1 PPG. However, the team has to be excited that WR Josh Gordon returning to action for the first time since Dec. 21, 2014 due to his substance-abuse issues. "I'm just excited," Gordon, the NFL's top receiver in 2013, said during a press conference. "I'm having the most fun that I have ever had doing this, just playing ball, the love of it. That is the only thing that is giving me any type of - not really pressure - but kind of just boost, more than anything." Gordon led the NFL with 1,646 receiving yards in 2013, when he caught 87 passes (nine for TDs) in 14 games while earning Pro Bowl honors. The Cleveland defense has not played all that badly (318.0 YPG ranks 9th) but the NFL's worst TO margin (minus-17) has contributed to them allowing 26.3 PPG, which ranks 30th.

LA Chargers: The Chargers look for a third straight victory to get back to a .500 record, after a 54-24 home win over the Bills and a 28-6 win at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Rivers completed 72.3% in those two wins, throwing for 685 yards with five TDs and no INTs. He's completing 62.1 percent for 2,948 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs (95.2 rating). The Chargers rank 4th in passing YPG, putting Rivers on pace for his ninth 4,000-yard season in his last 10 years. RB Gordon is only averaging 3.7 YPC but has been a good all-purpose back. He's run for 698 yards (5 TDs) and caught 38 passes for four more TDs. WR Keenan Allen has stayed healthy and has 67 catches (13.8 YPC) with four TDs. The Chargers' D has also played well, allowing just 18.4 PPG (6th).

The pick: I noted at the top that the Browns last won back on Christmas Eve 2016. The Chargers won't need to be reminded of that here, considering they were the team the Browns beat last Christmas Eve, 20-17. The charged-up Bolts are eager to not only avenge last year's loss to Cleveland but to keep the pressure on KC, which plays at the Jets earlier in the day. Philip Rivers will make his 188th consecutive start and that is now the longest active streak in the league after the New York Giants demoted Eli Manning (210). Rivers looks great and it's hard to imagine Cleveland slowing him and the Chargers down (the Browns have allowed 30 or more points on six occasions in 2017). As for Cleveland, the return of Gordon can be nothing but good news and as Hue Jackson commented, "I have big plans for him. I plan for him to play, and play as much as he can handle. I think he is a very talented player. He needs to play, needs to get out there and play, but we have to see where he is and make sure how much can he handle, how much can he do." Make the Over an 8* play

The set-up: For a long time, the Indianapolis Colts dominated the AFC South, first led by Peyton Manning and then Andrew Luck. However, the Colts entered the 2017 season off back-to-back seasons and with Andrew Luck never getting on the field, find themselves at 3-8 entering Week 13. The Colts would need to "win out" to reach 8-8 this season and we can be pretty sure that won't happen. Indy visits Jacksonville on Sunday and the 7-4 Jaguars are attempting to end a nine-season playoff drought. Jacksonville is tied with Tennessee for first place in the AFC South as it opens a three-game homestand on Sunday against the Colts.The Titans currently own the tie-breaker but the good news is the Jags currently own the AFC's No. 1 wild card spot.

Indianapolis: The Colts' season unraveled early as Luck has been unavailable due to a shoulder injury. The team's next loss will clinch its first losing campaign since 2011. "It's tough, but I know what type of guys we've got in this locker room - great group of guys who will come to work every day," veteran RB Frank Gore told reporters. "I know things haven't been going our way, and I think if we just handle the small things, I think that can change." Gore needs just 49 rushing yards against the Jaguars to pass Jerome Bettis (13,662) and LaDainian Tomlinson (13,684) and move into fifth place on the all-time list but "he's dreaming" about this team turning things around. Jacoby Brissett is limited at QB (9 TDs / 5 INTs / QB rating of 86.0), as the Colts rank 26th in averaging 201.3 YPG (26th). Gore and the team's rushing 'attack' ranks 24th, averaging 95.3 YPG. That adds up to the team averaging only 17.2 PPG (27th). On the defensive side of the ball, Indy is allowing an NFL-worst 27.3 PPG on 375.8 YPG (29th). Go back and re-visit Gore's quote and try NOT to laugh!

Jacksonville: The Jags considered replacing QB Blake Bortles in the preseason but they didn't have a "plan B." Bortles has made fewer mistakes this season but he's is a liability. He's completing a modest 58.3% with just 12 TDs (albeit, just 8 INTs). The Jags rank just 28th with 194.8 YPG passing but have been bailed out offensively by the NFL's No. 1-ranked running game. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has been up-and-down this season but his 765 yards (4.1 YPC / 6 TDs) is a team-high for a Jacksonville team averaging 154.3 YPG! Jacksonville's D played hard last season but the turnover-plagued offense kept many people from noticing. However, the Jags enter this Week 13 game ranked first in points allowed (15.3 per game) and yards allowed (281.8 per game).

The pick: Jacksonville is 3-0 ATS following a SU loss in 2017, with those victories coming by 37, 21 & 27 points. Maybe I should just "lay it" but this low total has me more interested. The Colts are allowing 33.2 PPG on the road and after getting shut out at home by the Jags, I think the Colts are more than capable of at least putting up their season average on offense (just shy of 18 points). Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: This year's AAC Championship between the 10-1 Memphis Tigers and 11-0 UCF Knights at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando is quite special. Memphis has a chance to win 11 games for the first time in school history while earning its sixth conference title. UCF looks to continue its perfect season while winning the school's fifth conference title. This showdown features the top-two point-producers in college football. Memphis ranks 2nd at 47.0 PPG and UCF 1st at 48.7 PPG. Better yet, the winner will earn a New Year's Six Bowl berth.

Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson is completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 3,500 yards with 32 TDs and eight INTs. Ferguson has two quality RBs playing along with him in Henderson (1,052 YR / 9.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and Taylor (700 YR / 5.8 YPC / 12 TDs). Ferguson has 23 TD passes to go along with only three interceptions since the team's 40-13 loss at UCF in its fourth game of the season, one in which he had three INTs. WR Anthoy Miller (78 catches / 15.5 YPC / 14 TDs) holds almost every school receiving record. On the entire season, defense has been an issue for Memphis, which comes into this contest allowing 30.8 PPG on 453.5 YPG (112th).

UCF: QB McKenzie Milton can match Ferguson, completing 69.1% for 3,301 yards with 30 TDs and six INTs. Memphis has the best RBs on the field but UCF's backfield depth has allowed them to average 198.9 YPG rushing, just a few YPG less than Memphis (202.5). The real edge UCF owns in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. The Knights allow more than a TD less per game (22.5) and just over 50 YPG less, at 399.0 per. Then there is also the Knights' 27 takeaways (17 INTs / 10 fumble recoveries), which leaves then tied with Miami-Fl. for the national lead with a plus-17 turnover margin.

The pick: Memphis is seeking to avenge a 40-13 blowout loss at this same venue in Orlando back on Sep. 30 but note UCF leads this series 10-1 and is 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings against Memphis. What changes here? Probably nothing but so much is at stake in this contest, that I believe that with this super-high over/under number, the under is the play. UCF owns a very good defense and Memphis has allowed fewer than 15 points in two of its last three game. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The 5-5 Green Bay Packers' wild card hopes are quickly slipping away and they could sure use a win Sunday night at Heinz Field, after losing four of their last five games. The problem being, their opponents will be the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers, who have as won five straight games to tie the Patriots for the AFC's best record (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker for the No. 1 seed). This could have been a matchup of Super Bowl-winning QBs, Rodgers (one) vs. Roethlisberger (two) but instead Brett Hundley
makes his fifth straight start for the injured Rodgers.

Green Bay: The Packers are 1-3 with Hundley starting and he was awful in last Sunday's 23-0 home loss to the Ravens. He had four (three INTs and one fumble) of Green Bay's five TOs and comes into this game averaging 136.8 YPG passing with two TDs and seven INTs (QB rating of 63.3). The team's leading rusher (Aaron Jones) has just 370 yards and the Packers average only 102.4 rushing YPG (19th). Green Bay's depth at WR hasn't meant much with Hundley under center,,as the Packers are averaging 14.3 PPG in his four starts. The defense checks in averaging 18th in both points allowed (23.0 per) and yards allowed (340.1 per).

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger is not having one of his better years but he's off an excellent game in Week 11 (Thursday night at home vs. Tenn.), as he threw for 299 yards and four TDs. In guiding Pittsburgh to five straight wins, Big Ben has thrown for 1,328 yards with 10 TDs and a 102.7 passer rating. WR Antonio Brown leads the league in catches (70) and receiving yards (1,026) after hauling in 10 receptions and three scoring passes in the romp over Tennessee (six TDs on the season). Le'Veon Bell has had an uneven year (after a holdout) but is still the NFL's leading rusher with 886 yards. He also has 49 catches for another 308 yards. The Pittsburgh defense has not permitted more than 17 points during its five-game winning streak and currently ranks 2nd in points allowed (16.9 per) and 4th in total D (287.6 YPG).

The pick: The Steelers are not just 8-2 but four of their final six games are at home. Except for that inexplicable home loss to the Jags (30-9), Pittsburgh has averaged 31.7 PPG in its other three games at Heinz Field (all wins). The total remains low because of Pittsburgh's strong defense and Hundley's struggles at QB but I'm calling for this game to go OVER and will make that an 8* play.

The set-up: AFC foes (hardly rivals, anymore) meet Sunday afternoon in NFL Week 12 NFL play at Foxborough, as the 8-2 New England Patriots host the 4-6 Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were once 4-2 but last Sunday's 30-20 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaners was Miami's fourth in a row. The two AFC wild card teams are currently both 5-5, so the Dolphins only enter one game back but they are tied with four other teams plus the Chargers just moved to 5-6 with their Thanksgiving Day win at Dallas. The Pats raised some eyebrows with their 2-2 start, particularly with a defense which couldn't stop anyone, especially through the air. However, all is right in "New England Land" these days, as the Pats' 33-8 beatdown of the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City last Sunday was the team's sixth straight win. The Pats and Steelers are tied for the AFC's best record at 8-2 (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker).

Miami: Jay Cutler was back under center last Sunday for the Dolphins but he threw for just 83 yards, one TD touchdown and three INTs before leaving with a concussion. Matt Moore stepped in and completed 17 of 28 for 282 yards and a TD but to no avail (Miami lost by 10!). You tell me why Miami traded away Jay Ajayi, because he still owns 58 percent of Miami's current 804 rushing yards on the season? Moore will be under center for this one and surely won't get too much help from a running game averaging 80.4 YPG (28th) and is now without a quality RB. Miami's offense is averaging just 15.7 PPG (30th) on the season, while its defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (27th).

New England: Brady was just "being Brady" against the Raiders, completing 30 of 37 for 340 yards and three TDs touchdowns. He's completing 68.7 percent on the season with 22 TDs and just two INTs (in attempts), for a QB rating of 110.09. The Pats lead the NFL in passing yards (304.6 per game) and now rank fourth in scoring at 29.0 PPG. The defense has made huge strides in keeping teams out on the end zone, as after allowing 32.0 PPG through the team's first four contests, the Pats are down to allowing 20.3 PPG on the season, to rank 12th (12.5 PPG allowed during the six-game winning streak!).

The pick: The Dolphins come to Foxborough having lost eight in a row to the Pats in this venue (2-6 ATS) and there is no reason to believe Brady and Co. will have much trouble scoring here. However, while the Pats' D has cut down on its PPG, the team's defense is still giving up big chunks of yards and still ranks last in total yards allowed at 401.9 per. That can "catch up" to a defense and may just here, after Brady and Co. have established a 'cushion.' Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The 114th edition of the Egg Bowl will be contested Thanksgiving night in Starkville when 5-6 Ole Miss (2-5 SEC) takes on 8-3 Mississippi State (4-3 SEC). The Rebels need a win to become eligible but in fact, will be playing their final game of the season as a result of a self-imposed postseason ban, which came in February after the NCAA found the program committed multiple violations under former coach Hugh Freeze. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs were ranked 14th in the latest CFP rankings and are hoping to improve their bowl status with a victory. Ole Miss guaranteed itself its second straight non-winning season after losing at home to Texas A&M 31-24 the last time out, while Miss. St. reached eight wins for the fifth time in Mullen's nine seasons with that 28-21 win at Arkansas.

Ole Miss: The Rebels couldn't hold onto a 24-21 halftime lead against the Aggies and the seven-point loss snapped a two-game win streak. Junior QB Jordan Ta'amu moved into the starting role in mid-October after Shea Patterson (2,259 YP / 17-9 ratio) was lost to a season-ending injury. He compl eted 19 of 34 passes for 189 yards with two TDs (one interception) and enters completing 69.5% with nine TD and three INTs. A.J. Brown has 69 catches for 1,085 yards with 10TDs and RB Wilkins has 901 YR (6.4 YPC) and seven TDs. The offense averages 33.0 PPG (37th) but the defense ranks 114th in both points allowed (35.2 per game) and yards allowed (455.7 YPG).

Mississippi State: QB Fitzgerald extended his own SEC record for 100-yard rushing games by a QB to 14 after rushing for 101 against the Razorbacks and needs only 52 more yards to move past ex-Bulldog Dak Prescott (2,521) and into third place on the conference's all-time rushing list from a signal-caller. He has 1,770 passing yards (15-10 ratio) but is most dangerous running the ball, with a team-high 968 yards (6.1 YPC / 14 TDs). He and RB Williams 944 YR / 4.6 YPC) lead a rushing game averaging 245.5 YPG (17th), The Bulldogs average 32.5 PPG (39th), about the same as Ole Miss, but the huge difference comes on the defensive side of the ball. Miss. St. allows 19.5 PPG (20th) on 297.2 YPG (9th).

The pick: Tensions are always high when Mississippi and Mississippi State collide but this week's meeting seems even more intense than normal. In fact, the athletic directors from both schools sent out a request to fans, hoping to prevent emotions from boiling over on Thursday night. "In the spirit of sportsmanship, we ask that fans from both schools honor this storied rivalry with civility and respect for each other," Ole Miss athletic director Ross Bjork and Mississippi State athletic director John Cohen wrote in a joint statement. Fitzgerald accounted for 367 total yards, including a school-record 258 yards on the ground, and five total TDs (three passing / two rushing) in last year's 55-20 thrashing of Ole Miss, allowing Mississippi State to avenge a defeat in 2015 and take home the Golden Egg Trophy for the fifth time in eight tries under coach Dan Mullen. I also like the way QB Jordan Ta'amu has filled in for Patterson, so I expect a shootout. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Los Angeles Chargers are off a 54-24 beatdown of the Buffalo Bills last Sunday but the win got them to just 4-6. The Dallas Cowboys are off a humiliating 37-9 loss to their division rival the Philadelphia Eagles, which came right after Dallas lost 27-7 in Atlanta. The Cowboys are now 5-5 and with star RB Ezekiel Elliott set to miss four more games, Dallas' playoff hopes are rapidly disappearing.The Chargers visit AT&T Stadium for the middle contest of the NFL's three-game Thanksgiving Thursday card. While this will be the Cowboys' 50th Thanksgiving contest, the Chargers will be participating in their first game on the holiday sinc) e 1969!

LA Chargers: The Chargers benefited from Buffalo's "ridiculous" (editorial comment) decision to give last Sunday's start to a QB so "unready for prime time" that Nathan Peterman threw five INTs in just 14 pass attempts, with the first of his five picks being returned for a TD. The Chargers' D later returned a fumble for a score, as the 54 points represented the Chargers' highest-scoring performance in Philip Rivers' 195 consecutive starts since 2006. Speaking of Rivers, he passed for 251 yards (on 20 of 32 passing) and two TDs, both to Keenan Allen who caught 12 passes for 159 yards. RB Melvin Gordon added 80 rushing yards and a TD. Los Angeles has recovered from its 0-4 start and views this contest as crucial as its deficit in the AFC West is just two games thanks to Kansas City dropping four of its last five games. "We're not way out of the division and not way out of the hunt," Rivers said. "That's exciting and encouraging. It shouldn't be hard to keep us focused on the task at hand. ... Just be fired up that we still have everything in front of us."

Dallas: The loss of "Zeke" is huge but the absence of LT Tyron Smith (Dak has been sacked 12 times the last two games!) plus LB Sean Lee sidelined have been no small factor in the in Cowboys getting outscored 64-16 in back-to-back losses. Prescott's solid start is beginning to unravel and the Cowboys are now tasked with scraping for a wild card spot with an injury-depleted team.

The pick: All of the above noted, remember the Cowboys were actually ahead 9-7 at the half vs. the Eagles, before succumbing 30-0 in the second half. The Chargers will not have the 'cake-walk' of last week and I expect to see the Dallas team we saw in the first half last Sunday vs. the Eagles, not the second half. The Cowboys have scored just 16 points without Elliott, scoring just one TD (on a 21-yard drive). The play here is an 8* on the Under.

The set-up: A pair of 2-5 MAC schools will conclude their respective 2017 seasons Tuesday night at Rynearson Stadium when the Eastern Michigan Eagles host the Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green is hoping to end the year on a positive note after suffering a humiliating 66-37 defeat at the hands of the Toledo Rockets (a bitter rival) as a 17-point home dog in its last contest. The Falcons trailed just 24-21 at the half but were outscored 35-16 over the final two quarters. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan is aiming for back-to-back wins following a 27-24 victory at the Miami (Ohio).

Bowling Green: Mike Jinks' second season at BG is coming to a close and it hasn't been pretty. After going 4-8 SU & ATS in his first season, the Falcons have been even worse in 2017, entering this final game 2-9 SU & ATS. Doing the math, that's 6-17 SU & ATS mark. The Falcons don't have much of an offense (24.8 PPG ranks 92nd) and the defense is dreadful, allowing 38.4 PPG (124th) on 519.5 YPG (127th).

Eastern Michigan: The Eagles, like the Falcons are just 2-5 in MAC play but they have two more wins (4-7, overall) and more importantly, are a money-making 8-3 ATS. EMU's offense is no better than BG's (averaging 25.4 PPG) but on the defensive side of the ball, Eastern Michigan has allowed 22.6 PPG (37th) on 355.7 YPG (32nd).

The pick: Eastern Michigan won 28-25 at Bowling Green in last year's matchup but that was just the Eagles' second win in 13 games since 1990 (both victories were by just three points). Meanwhile, Bowling Green's 11 wins in that span have come by an average margin of 19 PPG. However, the current Bowling Green team makes it impossible to back the Falcons here in 2017. Then again, the Falcons have played way better on offense since freshman Jarrett Doege has taken over. Doege has completed 59 of 91 (64.8%) in his three starts, throwing for 738 yards with nine TD passes and just one INT. BG has averaged 36.3 PPG in that span. However, as noted, EMU's defense is the reason the team is 8-3 ATS. Let me also note that the last six Bowling Green games have averaged 73.0 PPG, with all "going over." Enough already! I say play UNDER and make it a 10*.

The set-up: The Atlanta Falcons an are defending NFC champions but at 5-4 while playing in the NFC South with the 8-2 Saints and 7-3 Panthers, this MNF game at CenturyLink Field. in Seattle against the Seahawks is starting to look like a "must-win" contest. The Seahawks come in 6-3 and with the Rams losing at Minnesota on Sunday to fall to 7-3, Seattle can move back into a tie with LA for first-place in the NFC West. A Seattle loss would leave them at 6-4, tied with the Falcons and Lions for the NFC's final wild card spot (tie-breakers would decide 'the winner!'). Boston line is, this is an important game for all involved.

Atlanta: The Falcons hope to build off their 27-7 Week 10 win over the Cowboys. Matt Ryan was the league's MVP in 2016 (69.9% / 4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio / 117.1 QB Rating) but has been nowhere-near that good in 2017. He's completing 66.5% with a 13-8 ratio and a QB rating of 93.9. WR Julio Jones is also off his production of the last few seasons (has one TD catch!) and is battling ankle injuries. RB Devonta Freeman (515 YR / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) sustained a concussion against the Cowboys and is expected to miss here. However, backup Tevin Coleman rushed for a season-high 83 yards after Freeman was injured early last week (399 YR / 4.8 YPC on the season). Atlanta (21.9 PPG ranks 16th) is averaging a dozen points fewer than last season's league-leading average of 33.8 and had failed to score more than 17 in its last four losses before posting its highest point total since Week 3. Rayn and the passing offense ranks 11th overall with 251.6 YPG through the air. the defense checks in allowing 19.9 PPG (11th) on 311.9 YPG (8th).

Seattle: The Seahawks come in winners of five of their last six and surely will be seeking some revenge for last year's. Russell Wilson is completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,543 yards with 19 TDs and just six INTs. Wilson has two or more TD passes in six of his last seven games and has carried the offense, which is averaging 23.4 PPG (12th. Doug Baldwin has a team-high 54 catches while TE Jimmy Graham (39 catches) has six TDs in the past five games. RB Eddie Lacy is expected to return after sitting out one week with a groin injury but the ground game has been ineffective since rookie Chris Carson was lost for the season. Seattle enters averaging 100.7 YPG (23rd). On defense, Seattle lost Richard Sherman for the rest of the 2017 season in the team's last game vs. Arizona. This is the second time in back-to-back seasons the Seahawks have lost a member of the Legion of Boom for the year with an injury. Last year, safety Earl Thomas was shelved after breaking a leg in December. The defense never recovered. The 2017 version of the Legion of Boom allows 18.3 PPG (6th) on 318.9 YPG (10th).

the pick: The Seahawks lost last year in Atlanta 36-20 in the Divisional Round and with the team's D less than 100%, will likely need to score to win this all-important game tonight. Ryan has become the fastest quarterback to 40,000 yards passing in league history and as noted above, Russell Wilson has been carrying the Seattle offense for most of the season. Expect a shoot-out between these two QBs. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: In the midst of Jerry Jones' feud with Roger Goodell, Week 11's SNF game will be played at AT&T Stadium ("Jerry's House") between the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys. Philly's lone loss came back in Week 2 (at KC), so coming off a bye week, the Eagles enter on a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Eagles have essentially 'put away' all teams in the NFC East except the Cowboys but a win here in Dallas would all but eliminate any chance the Cowboys would have of challenging Philly for the division title.

Philadelphia: Second-year QB Carson Wentz has quickly developed into "the real deal" in his sophomore season. He's completing 60.5 percent for 2,262 yards with 23 TDs and just five INTs, giving him a 104.1 QB rating. LeGarrette Blount is the leading Eagles rusher with 504 yards but the Eagles made a trade deadline deal with the Dolphins to acquire Jay Ajayi. He ran for 77 yards (on just eight carries) in his first game with Philly and note that he ran for 1,272 yards on 4.9 YPC and eight TDs in 2016 for Miami. Philly's ground game is averaging 136.8 YPG (4th) but it will be better with the addition of Ajayi, if for no other reason than the Eagles now have two No. 1-quality RBs in case of injury. TE Zach Ertz aims to return from a two-game absence due to an ailing hamstring and pick up where he left off. Ertz leads all NFC tight ends in receptions (43), yards (528) and TDs (six) this season. Off-season acquisition WR Jeffrey is also coming into his own with 34 catches (14.7 YPC) and five TD grabs. Philly's offense ranks second in scoring (31.4 PPG) and the defense has more than held its own, allowing 19.9 PPG (11th) on 315.9 YPG (10th).

Dallas: The irreplaceable Ezekiel Elliott finally began serving his 6-game suspension (five games left) last week in Atlanta. However, Elliott's absence was not the reason Dak Prescott was sacked eight times by Atlanta's D, including an amazing six solo sacks by DE Adrian Clayborn. The Cowboys ran for 107 yards (5.1 YPC) but Dak threw for just 176 yards. Throw in the lost yardage from all the sacks, and the Cowboys had just 233 yards for the game, while scoring seven points. Prescott has thrown for 1,994 yards with 16 TDs and just four INTs (no "sophomore jinx" here) but the team can't replace Elliott's 783 rushing yards and seven scores. Dez Bryant is tops in receiving for the Cowboys with 478 yards and four TDs on 42 catches. However, he's been slowed by an ailing knee which has limited him to just 39 yards receiving in two of his last three games. The Dallas D is middle-of-the-pack, allowing 22.8 PPG (17th) on 325.9 YPG (15th).

The pick: I just don't see Dallas slowing Wentz and Co, as the Cowboys' pass D allows 66.6% completions and has only five INTs (on 323 pass attempts), while allowing 16 TD passes. Philly's running was among the best in the NFL and it's now added Ajayi. These are desperate times for Dallas' playoff hopes and the Cowboys won't go down without a fight. However, they'll have to score to win this one. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants were both playoff teams in 2016 but when the Chiefs visit MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs come in with an AFC West-leading record of 6-3, while the Giants take the field an abysmal 1-8. However, let's also note that the Chiefs come into this contest just 1-3 after opening 2017 at 5-0. Then again, most feel as if the Giants hit rock bottom last Sunday, falling to the then 0-9 Niners by the score of 31-21!

Kansas City: Alex Smith's "career season" continues, as he enters having completed 69.6 percent with 18 TDs and just one INT in 293 pass attempts (QB rating is 113.9). Rookie RB Hunt has cooled off but he comes into the team's 10th game with 800 yards rushing (5.2 YPC) and four TDs, along with 32 catches for another two TDs. TE Kelce (51 catches / 5 TDs) and WR Hill (40 catches / 4 TDs), are also quality contributors. Maybe KC would have a win or two more if the team's defense wasn't giving up 3903.YPG, which ranks 30th. That said, KC does rank better in points allowed, at 23.1 PPG which ranks 19th.

NY Giants: The Giants season began poorly and it's never gotten better. Eli may be making his 209th consecutive start at QB in this one but it sure feels like his time as the Giants' No. 1 QB is coming to end. Losing OBJ and Marshall to injury surely didn't help, nor has the fact that the Giants have almost no running game, averaging 89.8 YPG (25th). Eli's numbers aren't awful (64.6% with 14 TDs and 6 INTs), especially considering the circumstances but the bottom line is the bottom line. The Giants are scoring only 16.7 PPG, which ranks 29th. Defensively, after allowing an NFC-best 17.6 PPG, the Giants have allowed 26.4 PPG to rank 28th in the NFL.

The pick: The Chiefs should play well coming out of their bye week (Reid-coached teams are 16-2 in games following a week off!) but KC has looked like a different team since that 5-0 start. Smith is still not turning the ball over but Hunt seems to have "hit a wall,' averaging only 47.8 YPG rushing in the team's 1-3 run. The Giants have yet to score more than 24 points in any game in 2017 and after last week's loss to the 49ers, seem like a 'lost' team. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: Notre Dame's CFP hopes were likely dashed when the team lost last Saturday night in Miami, 41-8 to the Hurricanes. The 8-2 Fighting Irish (now No.9 in the CFP rankings) will try to pick up the pieces this Saturday afternoon, when they welcome the Navy Midshipmen to South Bend. Navy ended a two-game slide with last Saturday's 43-40 win over SMU, although once again the Midshipmen struggled with inconsistency. Against SMU, Navy coughed up a 34-11 halftime before winning on a FG on the game's final play. Navy payed in last year's AAC championship game but this year's team is a more modest 6-3 overall, including just 4-3 in the AAC West.

Navy: The Midshipmen won the yardage battle 559-426 with EVERY yard coming on the ground. QB Malcolm Perry threw just ONE pass and it was intercepted. However, Perry ran for 282 yards and four TDs. RB Anthony Gargiulo ran for 145 yards and a TD but Navy did little or nothing in the second half. Perry adds more speed than Abey and showed it off last Saturday. However, Perry injured his ankle toward the end of the win and could find himself back on the sidelines this weekend. Navy is still shuffling through its QB options. "Zach will definitely be back in the mix and I'll turn this back over to (quarterbacks coach Ivin Jasper)," Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo told reporters. "We'll have to discuss it as a staff and see where we're at. We have to find out Malcolm's health and Zach's health." Regardless of the QB, Navy ranks first in the nation at 369.8 YPG on the ground.

Notre Dame: The Irish rank 6th in rushing (303.2 YPG) bu had just 109 rushing yards vs. Miami. Josh Adams (1,231 YR / 8.0 YPC / 10 TDs) totaled 40 yards on 16 carries. QB Brandon Wimbush completed only 10-of-21 for 119 yards and a touchdown but threw a pair of interceptions, including a 65-yard "pick six." He was also was limited to 24 yards rushing and a lost fumble on 11 carries. Ian Book was no relief, as he connected on 3 of 6 for 33 yards and another interception. Both were overwhelmed by the situation. However, we know Navy's D in no way resembles Miami's. The offense comes in averaging 38.0 PPG (15th) but the defense allows just 20.7 PPG (30th).

The pick: Let's repeat: Navy leads all FBS teams in rushing yards per game (369.8) while Notre Dame ranks sixth (303.2). The clock will be running all game in this one. Navy's win last Saturday to become bowl eligible for the 14th time in the last 15 seasons. With that accomplished, Navy hopes to add a "signature win." Notre Dame can't help but be somewhat flat after the 'Canes 'killed' its Final 4 hopes and don't forget, "the clock will be running all game!" Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The Toledo Rockets will travel about 25 miles down I-75 to Doyt Perry Stadium to take on the Bowling Green Falcons this Wednesday night in MAC play. The Rockets lost badly at Ohio U last Wednesday (38-10), dropping them to 8-2 (5-1 in MAC West play) on the season. The good news is, Toledo had beaten Northern Illinois 27-17 in its previous game, so the Rockets still control their destiny in the MAC West, as they own the tie-breaker over the Huskies, who are also 5-1. Bowling Green lost a week ago Tuesday 38-28 at Buffalo and enter this contest against its long-time rival just 2-8 (2-4 in the MAC East).

Toledo: The Rockets only trailed the Bobcats 10-7 at the half last week but got rolled in the second half and by game's end got out-gained 532-to-316 in total yards (Ohio U ran for 393 yards!). The Rockets are averaging 36.1 PG (25th) with a balanced offense (294.0 YPG passing and 205.3 YPG on the ground). QB Logan Woodsid has completed 64.8% of his passes on the season for 2,912 yards with 20 TDs and two INTs. The ground game ranks 31st in the nation, led by a trio of RBs, Swanson (854 YR / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), Seymour (544 YR / 6.6 YPC) and Thompson (466 YR / 5.5 YPC). Swandson's banged up but that's the beauty of the team's at the RB position. The defense imploded last week in Athens but that's not typical, as despite that effort Toledo comes in allowing 25.8 PPG to rank 60th (there are 130 FBS schools).

Bowling Green: The Falcons fought back after trailing by a 21-7 margin at the end of the 1st quarter, last week at Buffalo but the Bulls held on for a 10-point win. The Falcons were out-gained by Bulls by a 582-394 margin, something which has become familiar. BG averages only 23.6 PPG (98th) on 380.8 YPG, while allowing 35.6 PPG on 507.8 YPG (127th). Freshman Jarret Doege is the latest QB for struggling BG and he completed 28 of 43 passes for 294 yards and three TDs. However, when the defense allows 38 points on 582 yards, improved QB play doesn't mean all that much.

The pick: Toledo holds its fate in its hands and needs only to beat struggling BG and then Western Michigan (at home) in its season-finale, to earn a place in the MAC title game. Mike Jinks is 6-16 SU and ATS in his second season at Bowling Green and it's unlikely even the presence of a bitter rival like Toledo will be enough for the Falcons to earn a "W." However, I like what I see from Doege and while the BG defense will be all but helpless against Toledo's well-balanced offense (ready to roll after last week's 10-point effort), That said, expect Doege to help BG to put points on the board, as well. Make the Over a 10* play.

The pick: These two teams have played each other pretty tight, splitting the last six games with three wins apiece. One has to expect Denver, especially here at home, to bring its "A game" off that Philly embarrassment. The problem is, the Pats are 3-0 on the road in 2017, extending their road winning streak to 11-0! Then again, Sports Authority/Invesco Field has been a house of horrors in the past for Tom Brady, who is 0-3 SU & ATS in playoff games at Denver. However, those past problems at Mile High came vs. very good  Broncos teams, which doesn’t seem to apply here in 2017. Expect Denver to "give its all" in this one but not to contain Brady and the Pats "O." Make the Over an 8* play.

The setup: The Penn State Nittany Lions coughed up a 15-point fourth quarter at Ohio State on Oct. 28 and then lost last Saturday 27-24 at Michigan State. Penn State was No. 2 in the AP poll before the the loss to Ohio State but after opening No. 7 in the first CFP rankings, now checks in at No. 14, with almost no hope of reaching the Big Ten championship game. The 7-2 Nittany Lions (4-2 in the Big Ten) will host the 4-5 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-3 in Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium. Penn State has beaten Rutgers the last two seasons 28-3 and 39-0, giving them a 25-2 advantage in the all-time series.

Rutgers: Chris Ash had a 'nightmare' first year at Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights went 2-10, including 0-9 in the Big Ten. However, the Scarlet Knights look for their fourth win in last five tries in this game, hoping to get back to a .500 record. This year's offense is only marginally better, averaging 22.6 PPG (105th), which is up from 15.7 PPG but the defense has made major strides. Rutgers allowed 37.5 PPG in 2016 but here in 2017 the Scarlet Knights are allowing 24.9 PPG (33rd). RB Gus Edwards ran for 109 yards against the Terrapins and hauled in the decisive 23-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter as the Scarlet Knights won 31-24. The team is now within two victories of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. Rutgers has won three of its last four, covering each of its last four games.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions have seen a promising season derailed by back-to-back narrow road losses and will try to take out their frustration at home against an improving Rutgers squad on Saturday. Penn State needs a victory here in order to avoid its first three-game losing streak since the end of the 2015 season. QB Trace McSorley is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 2,452 yards with 19 TDs and eight interceptions. RB Saquon Barkley was the early Heisman favorite but he has fewer than 20 rushes in three of his last four games, including a season low-tying 14 last week. Is Barkley really a dynamic RB? The Lions have managed to rush for only 156 yards on 56 carries over the last two weeks, as a team. Defensively, Penn State is allowing 14.8 PPG (7th) on 331.4 YPG (25th) but in back-to-back losses, Penn State's D has allowed 65 points (32.5 per) on 1,003 yards (501.5 per).

The pick: Consecutive road losses have doomed Penn State’s championship aspirations but Rutgers’ defense is allowing 5.6 YPC, so I expect Barkley to break out of his two-game "mini-slump." The over is 13-6 in the Nittany Lions last 19 conference games and I say make it 14-6. The Over is an 8* play.

The setup: The Seattle Seahawks are 5-3, after their four-game win streak was brought to a halt on Sunday at home, when the Redskins beat them 17-14. The loss hurt, as the Rams romped 51-17 over the NY Giants in Week 9, moving one game ahead of Seattle in the NFC West at 6-2. Seattle now comes to the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, to take on NFC West rival Arizona. The Cardinals come in 4-4, sandwiching a loss to the Rams between wins over Tampa Bay and San Francisco.

Seattle: QB Russell Wilson threw 297 yards with two TDs against Washington but also threw two picks. Wilson has completed 62.0 percent for 2,305 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs (95.9 QB rating). He also leads Seattle in rushing with 271 yards and a TD on 46 attempts, which is not good news, as Seattle ranks 19th with 103.9 YPG. Seattle has always prided itself on defense under Pete Carroll (ever hear of the Legion of Boom?) but the Seahawks are allowing 332.5 YPG to rank 13th (not typical). However, Seattle is allowing a modest 18.6 PPG, which ranks 6th.

Arizona: The Cardinals' 33-0 loss to the Rams in London dropped them to 3-4 and they also lost Carson Palmer for the season. Drew Stanton has stepped up in the past and after a Week 8 bye, Stanton stepped in against San Francisco last Sunday to help the Cards win 20-10, moving to 4-4. Stanton completed 15 of 30 for 201 yards with two TDs and one INT vs. the 49ers. Drew Stanton extended his regular-season winning streak to four starts, albeit spread over nearly three years. "When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys," head coach Bruce Arians told reporters. "They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up." However, Adrian Peterson was "the difference" for the second time in his three games since coming to Arizona. A.P. ran for 134 yards and two TDs in the Cards' 38-33 win over Tampa Bay in Week 6 and then had 159 yards on the ground last Sunday against the 49ers, after running for only 21 yards in the London loss (Week 7)..

The pick: The Seahawks' offense has been pretty unpredictable, as they’ve scored at least 41 points twice in the last five games and 17 points or fewer twice in that span as well. However, the Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed FG attempts (of 44, 39 and 49 yards) plus committing a season-high 16 penalties! Seattle is 7-0 ATS in their last seven Thursday games and while Arians is 3-1 against the Seahawks in Seattle, he's 0-3-1 against them at home since becoming the Cardinals' coach in 2013. This total is low enough to make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos welcome the Kent State Golden Flashes to Kalamazoo in another Wednesday night football game in the MAC. Western Michigan lost to in-state rival Central Michigan 35-28 at home last Wednesday but at 5-4 (3-2 in the MAC West), the Broncos are just one win away from being bowl-eligible for the fourth consecutive season. As for Kent State, the Golden Flashes were embarrassed at home a week ago Tuesday, losing at home 44-16 to Bowling Green. Kent is now 2-7, including 1-4 in the MAC East.

Kent State: Bowling Green was not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS heading into last Tuesday's game at Kent State. The Falcons were averaging only 20.5 PPG but scored 44 points on yards, including 251 rushing yards. To say the least, it was a low point for Kent State's season. Actually, Kent State's entire season has been a low point, as the not so-Golden Flashes rank dead-last (130th) in scoring at 10.7 PPG and 129th in total yards at 253.4 per game. When one's defense allows 34.1 PPG (107th) on 436.3 YPG (102nd), one's offense has to score more than 10-plus PPG!

Western Michigan: The Broncos were 13-1 last year under P.J. Fleck but he's now 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota. The Broncos suffered a tough loss last week at home to Central Michigan, blowing a 21-7 halftime lead in which the Broncos had out-gained the Chippewas 269-82 (CMU had just two FDs at the half!). Western Michigan's Jarvion Franklin fumbled early in the fourth quarter and Jonathan Ward pulled Central Michigan to 28-21 on a 29-yard touchdown run. CMU blocked a punt on Western Michigan's next possession and Ward's 35-yard run on first down set up Eric Cooper's touchdown grab in the end zone to tie it at 28 with 5:50 left. CMU got the ball back with 2:47 left at its 23 and QB Shane Morris threw a 77-yard touchdown pass to Corey Willis with 2:37 remaining. Western Michigan turned it over on downs near midfield and Ward ran for a first down to run out the clock. The loss of starting QB Wassink has certainly been a blow to WMU but Bronco RB Franklin’s 228 YR in loss vs. Central Mich bodes well against Kent State rush D allowing 5.4 YPC.

The pick: With KSU's pathetic offense, going over may seem risky but I did just that last week in the BG/KSU game. I'll 'go to the well' again here while noting that the over is 10-2 in Western Michigan's last 12 home games. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Packers and Bears are the NFL's oldest rivalry but the Lions/Packers are not exactly unfamiliar with each other (this will be the series' 115th meeting, with the Packers owing a 60-40-4 edge). The Lions are 3-4 on the season but limp into Lambeau Field having lost four of their last five for tonight's Week 9 MNF matchup with the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. The Packers lost their Week 6 game at Minnesota and more devastatingly, lost Rodgers to a season-ending injury. In the team's first game without Rodgers (a Week 7 game at home vs. the Saints), Green Bay lost 26-19 with backup QB Brett Hundley proving he was nowhere near ready for primetime (12 of 25 for 87 yards without a TD and with one INT). The Packers had a much-needed bye in Week 8 and at 4-3, will now host the Lions. Both teams (surely the loser of this game) are in danger of losing touch with the NFC North's leader, the 6-2 Vikings (enjoying their bye week).

Detroit: The Lions opened 2-0 but enter on a three-game losing streak (four losses in their last five), after losing 20-15 at home against the Steelers a week ago Sunday night. QB Stafford threw for 423 yards on 27 of 45 passing as Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game. However, Detroit was only able to rush for 71 yards on 22 carries and failing to run the ball effectively is something that's been a recurring problem for Detroit, as the Lions come into this contest averaging 82.1 YPG (3.5 YPC) on the ground (28th). In fact, it has been 59 games since the Lions have had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013).

Green Bay: The Packers are off a bye but also off back-to-back losses (falling from 4-1 to 4-3) and while Hundley looked overwhelmed by the challenge in his role as a starter, he was hardly the only problem the Packers had in their Week 7 game with the Saints. The Pack's defense would allow 485 yards of total offense to New Orleans while letting the Saints rack up almost 37 minutes of possession in the game. Hundley will face a Detroit defense tonight which owns 10 interceptions and 16 overall takeaways, ranking third-best in the league.

The pick; To say that Detroit has had trouble winning at Green Bay is a huge understatement. Yes, the Lions won in Lambeau in 2015 but the team's last previous win there was back in 1991!. The Lions never got into the end zone vs. the Steelers, settling for five FGs (going 0-for-5 in scoring a TD in the red zone for that game, dropped Detroit to 28th in red zone TD efficiency). However, against an always excellent Pittsburgh D, the Lions were able to gain 485 yards. Stafford is used to carrying the Detroit offense and it's unlikely that Detroit's red zone issues will haunt them again in this one. As for Green Bay, Hundley can't possibly be as bad as he showed vs. the Saints and the bye week should have been a big help. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Tampa Bay Bucs saw their Week 1 game postponed by Hurricane Irma but they opened 2-1. However, they have then fallen in succession to the Patriots, Cardinals, Bills and Panthers, leaving them at 2-5. In stark contrast, the Saints lost their first two games of the 2017 season but have followed with five straight wins over the Panthers, Dolphins, Lions, Packers and Bears. The Saints entered 2017 off three consecutive 7-9 seasons but have now won five in a row for the first time since 2013. New Orleans is atop the NFC South but leads the Panthers by just a half-game and the Falcons by one game. It's early but a Tampa Bay loss here in New Orleans, all but ends any real division hopes for the Bucs in 2017.

Tampa Bay: QB Jameis Winston is dealing with a shoulder injury but practiced on Wednesday, the first time he joined the mid-week practice since suffering the injury on Oct. 15. Winston completed 21-of-38 passes for 210 yards and two interceptions in the loss to the Panthers last week, marking the fourth time in the last five games that he failed to complete at least 60 percent of his passes. However, he is completing 61.8 percent on the season (10 TDs and six INTs) plus Tampa Bay ranks second in passing yards at 295.4 per game. The running game doesn't offer enough help though, averaging just 81.1 YPG (29th), one of the reasons the Bucs are averaging only 21.1 PPG (19th). Defensively, Tampa Bay is allowing 386.4 YPG (29th) and 24.0 PPG (24th).

New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees is completing 70.6 percent of his passes, averaging 271.7 YPG through the air and has 11 TDs with just four INTs (101.7 QB rating). He leads an offense which ranks second in the league with 390.4 YPG and ranks 6th in scoring at 27.3 PPG. RB Mark Ingram became the undisputed starter again when New Orleans traded away Adrian Peterson last month and he's averaged 98 yards in the last three weeks but fumbled on two straight fourth-quarter drives against Chicago last week. "I sucked. I sucked," Ingram told reporters. "Two possessions we're about to ice the game. Let the ball go, hurt my team, hurt my coaches. That's the thing about a family, that's the thing about a team: They lift you up, they had my back, and we were able to get the W." A major improvement has been shown by the defense, which allowed 28.4 PPG in 2016 but has allowed 20.7 PPG in 2017 (12th).

The pick: The Buccaneers were expected to be the darlings of the NFC South in the preseason, while the New Orleans Saints were expected to just play out the end of Drew Brees' career near the bottom of the division. However, the teams have reversed that narrative so far this season, and the first-place Saints will go for their sixth consecutive win when they host the last-place Buccaneers on Sunday, who come in on that four-game skid. However, Tampa hasn’t exactly been lying down during its losing streak. The Bucs lost by five to the Patriots, five to the Cardinals and three to the Bills before 'laying an egg' in last week's 17-3 loss to the Panthers. If Ingram continues to run the ball well (while holding on to it!), he makes Brees even more effective. A Tampa Bay rush D which has only seven sacks on the year, also makes Brees' job easier in this matchup. That said, the Bucs know they really need a win here and are unlikely to bottle up Brees and Co, so the way to win is to match New Orleans score for score. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Arizona ended September at 2-2, losing a pair of home games to Houston and Utah by a single possession. Following a bye week, the Wildcats traveled to Colorado on Oct. 7, where QB Brandon Dawkins was flung into the sidelines on the game's opening drive. Dawkins was pulled and sophomore Khalil Tate entered the lineup. Four games, four wins and an unprecedented four straight Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors later, Tate has not relinquished the job. He leads Arizona in rushing with 926 yards on just 69 carries and has eight rushing TDs while passing for 784 yards and six more TDs. USC head coach Clay Helton said about the move to Tate, "It changed the dynamic of their team." He should know. USC closed September last season at 1-3, before a QB change to Sam Darnold ignited a nine-game winning streak that closed the campaign. The two schools meet in the LA Coliseum with the pac-12 South division lead on the line, as USC is 5-1 and Arizona, 4-1.

Arizona: Tate is a "force of nature," leading Arizona's rushing attack which is averaging 339.2 YPG (5th). The Wildcats are averaging 45.0 PPG (3rd) on the season, including 48.8 PPG in the school's current four-game winning streak. Defensively, Arizona is allowing opponents to average 30.2 PPG (88th) on 453.0 YPG (112th). which includes 300.6 YPG through the air (128th). Helping out the poor defensive numbers is the fact that Arizona has forced 19 turnovers on the season!

USC: The Trojans have been a minor disappointment and QB Sam Darnold has been a major one. He was Heisman-favorite and there was talk that he could be the next overall No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, after throwing 31 TDs with just nine iNTs in 2016, he already has 10 INTs this season with 20 TD passes. USC has escaped against Texas in two OTs and against Utah by one-point, plus has lost at Washington State and got creamed at Notre Dame. USC averages 33.7 PPG but allows 25.8 and its 2-7 ATS record speaks volumes regarding the team's status as an underachiever in 2017.

The pick: The depth-shy Trojan D has struggled with dual-threat QBs and right now, is there a better one than Arizona's Tate. However, there's little reason to trust Arizona's D, especially its pass D, which figures to easy pickins' for Darnold. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: It's MACtion on Wednesday night from Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, Mi. when the 5-3 Western Michigan Broncos host the 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas. The Chippewas kept their bowl hopes alive with a 56-9 rout at Ball State Cardinals on Oct. 21, reaching .500 at 4-4 on the season (2-2 in the MAC West). The Broncos also won on Oct. 21, edging the Eastern Michigan Eagles 20-17 in OT on the road. That gives WMU a 3-1 conference mark but the Broncos are still looking up at a pair of 4-0 teams in the West, Toledo and Northern Illinois.

Central Michigan: Head coach John Bonamego has taken the Chippewas to consecutive bowl games in his first two seasons (lost them both) and Central Michigan is still technically still alive for the MAC title but that's a long-shot. However, the team needs just two wins in its final four games to become bowl-eligible here in 2017. QB Shane Morris completed 16 of 21 for 199 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the rout of Ball State but he's completing a modest 56.7 percent on the season with 16 TDs and 11 INTs. The offense is mediocre at best, averaging 25.8 PPG (83rd). Defensively, CMU is allowing 27.0 PPG (73rd).

Western Michigan: Tim Lester is in his first season at WMU, with P.J. Fleck 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota, these days. Western Michigan had won four straight games, after its 71-68 seven-overtime win over Buffalo on Oct. 7. However, that win may have taken something out of the Broncos, who fell to Akron, 14-13 at home in their next game. Then came the 20-17 OT win at EMU, a game in which they lost starting QB Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone. Wassink was injured with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter and true freshman Reece Goddard entered the game. Ultimately, Goddard led the Broncos to the game-winning FG drive in overtime

The pick: QB Morris is off his best game of the season (see above) plus the CMU running game had its best effort of the season vs. the Cardinals, running for a season-high 256 yards. The Chippewas are an impressive 15-5 ATS theri last 20 MAC road games, which goes well with the fact that the road team is on a 5-0 run in this series. The WMU defense is no bargain (allows 27.69 PPG to rank 79th) but I'm not sold on CMU slowing the WMU offense either, even without Wassink behind center. The Broncos have won the last three in this series, averaging 40.7 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: It's the final day of October and two struggling MAC teams take the field on Halloween night, with the 1-7 Bowling Green Falcons visiting the 2-6 Kent State Golden Flashes. Both schools are 1-3 in MAC play (East Division), with each owning wins over Miami-Ohio (ironically, Miami is 2-2 in MAC play). Bowling Green comes in 1-7 SU and ATS and Kent State at 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. Bowling Green has won the last four meetings with Kent and owns a commanding 59-19-6 advantage in the all-time series.

Bowling Green: Mike Jinks is in just his second season at Bowling Green and is not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS, as well. Bowling Green averages just 20.5 PPG on offense, while its defese allows 37.8 PPG (120th) on 526.5 YPG (127th). James Morgan started the last seven games of the 2016 season at QB for Bowling Green and was instrumental in the Falcons’ three-game winning streak to end the season. It was expected hat he would build on that performance but the exact opposite has been the case. He's completed just 45.3 percent of his passes with nearly as many interceptions (seven) as TD passes (nine). Morgan was benched in favor of freshman Jarrett Doege, who relieved Morgan in a 49-7 loss at Northwestern and then made his first start the following week at Middle Tennessee. He showed good accuracy (63.5 percent completion rate) and had some success running the offense but then suffered a back injury in his second start against Akron. Morgan took over and led the Falcons to a 37-29 victory on the road against Miami (Ohio) in the next game, but gave way to another freshman, Grant Loy, in last week’s 48-17 blowout home loss to Northern Illinois. What's the ext move?

Kent State: The Golden Flashes lost 48-3 on Oct. 21 at Ohio U, getting out-gained 474-166 in yards. It was nothing new for a team which ranks 130th (dead-last!) among all FBS teams by averaging 10.0 PPG. Kent State averages only 249.6 YPG, which ranks 129th. The defense checks in allowing 32.9 PPG (102nd) on 437.8 YPG (100th). Take away the 38 points the Golden Flashes scored in their win over Howard (FCS) and they have scored a total of 42 points against seven FBS teams, which is 6.0 PPG!.

The pick: OK, so the play is under, right? As the saying goes, "not so fast!" These two schools have plenty of history together (see above) and note that Bowling Green's 59 wins are the most for the Falcons over any other opponent in program history. Bowling Green also has won four in a row over Kent State, averaging 40.3 PPG. The Falcons will nedd some help from the Golden Flashes but not all that much. Bowling Green’s defensive issues should give the Golden Flashes a chance to at least move the ball and go above their scoring average. Make the Over a 10* play.

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The set-up: Sunday Night football travels to Ford Field as the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers visit the 3-3 Detroit Lions. It seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Steelers lost 30-9 at home against the Jags, with Big Ben throwing five INTs, including two 'pick-sixes!' He famously told reporters after the game, "Maybe I don't have it anymore?" However, the Steelers won at KC in their next game (KC's first loss of the season) and followed with a 28-14 home win over the Bengals last Sunday. All of a sudden, the Steelers look as good as any team in the AFC (NFL?). The Lions were a controversial call against the Falcons away from a 4-0 start but with back-to-back losses prior to last week's bye, Detroit welcomes the Steelers to Detroit at just 3-3.

Pittsburgh: RB LeVeon Bell had just 47 rushing yards in that loss to the Jags but he's carried the ball 32 and 35 times the last two weeks, gaining 313 yards. Big Ben has been good, not great, completing 63.2% with three TDs and just one INT in attempts. WR Brown has 12 catches for 210 yards with two TDs in the team's back-to-back wins (what a trio!); As always, Pittsburgh is one of the NFL's best defensive teams, allowing 16.6 PPG (3rd) on 258.7 YPG (2nd)

Detroit: The Lions likely appreciated the bye week, especially QB Matthew Stafford. He took last week's bye to work his way past hamstring and ankle injuries. Detroit will need to come up big here, as the 5-2 Vikings are playing the 0-7 Browns in London. Stafford threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in the Lions' last game (a 52-38 loss at New Orleans) but also had three picks (has 12 TDs and four INTs on the season).

The pick: The good news for Detroit is that the Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week but the Steelers are back to playing at an elite level. Big Ben is "far from done" and WR Antonio Brown is basically un-coverable. Play-action seems sure to work with Bell running for 134 yards or more in three of his last four games. Expect Pittsburgh to score, meaning Detroit's only chance to win is to match Pittsburgh, score for score. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The NFL's latest London game kicks off Sunday's Week 8 schedule of games at Twickenham Stadium. The 5-2 Minnesota Vikings and the 0-7 Cleveland Browns wil lstart at 9:30 ET, as the Browns will play a regular-season game in London for the first time in franchise history. The Vikings enter on a three-game winning streak and sit atop the NFC North and with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers likely out for the season, are 'sniffing' a division title. For the Browns, they are off an 'ugly' 1-15 season and there has been no indication so far, that too much will be different here in 2017. The Browns have led in a game only once this season, 7-3 over the Jets in the fifth game, and that advantage lasted only 5:06 before New York moved ahead for good.

Minnesota: The Vikings have topped 30 points just once all season, averaging a modest 20.9 PPG (19th). However, Minnesota's defense has compensated, allowing 17.0 PPG (5th) on 283.0 YPG (4th). Minnesota's offense has seen QB Sam Bradford (knee) in and out of the lineup and excellent rookie RB Dalvin Cook (354 YR on 4.8 YPC) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in Week 4. However, Case Keenum is 3-2 as a starter and relieved Bradford in a comeback 20-17 win over the Bears in Week 5. RBs Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have stepped up since Cook was lost for the season. Again, the Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards, after allowing a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week.

Cleveland:The QB history of the Browns (for quite awhile now) has been a complete disaster. Rookie DeShone Kizer has just three TD passes and 11 INTs (awful 47.8 QB rating), while Kevin Hogan is no better. He has five INTs in way fewer attempts and owns a higher interception percentage than Kizer. The Browns don't own much of a running game (92.3 YPG ranks 25th) and the team's 14.7 PPG is the second-lowest in the NFL. The defense allows 304.7 YPG (9th) but with all the turnovers putting the defense in tough spots, Cleveland is allowing 24.1 PPG, which ranks 24th.

The pick: The Vikings have not scored much and neither have the Browns. However, these London games always create a different atmosphere, and with a low total, the Over is an 8* play

The set-up: The Cowboys were held under 41 points for the first time last Saturday at Texas but were able to escape with a 13-10 OT win over the Longhorns, keeping the team's CFP hopes alive. The 11th-ranked Cowboys are 6-1 overall (3-1 in the Big 12) and will travel to Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown to take on the 22nd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-2 overall and also 3-1 in Big 12 play. The series is tied at 4-all but OSU has won the last two years, 37-20 and 33-26 (OT).

Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph already owns 30 school records and enters this contest leading the nation in passing yards (2,650) and passing yards per game (378.6). He's completed 161-of-242 attempts (66.5 percent) for 19 TDs and four INTs. He's backed by an solid rushing game (197.4 YPG which ranks 38th), led by RB Hill (750 YR / 5.4 YPC). OSU averages 43.7 PPG (3rd) on 590.1 YPG (1st). Defensively, OSU allows 22.3 PPG (43rd) on 359.7 YPG (41st), and the team's stop unit "saved the day" against Texas. The Longhorns were held to just 10 points on 283 yards, while converting only 3 of 17 third down attempts.

West Virginia: QB Will Grier has the misfortune of playing in the same conference as Heisman Trophy contenders like Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph. However, Grier is some talent, completing 66.3 percent with 26 TDs and just five INTs, leading West Va to rank 4th in passing YPG at 364.0. Grier's favorite target is WR David Sills V, once a highly touted prep QB prospect himself, who leads the nation with 15 TD receptions. RB Crawford (639 YR / 6.1 YPC / 7 TDs) offers nice balance, with West Va/ checking in averaging 43.3 PPG (4th) on 540.1 YPG (5th). Defensively, West Va. allows 29.0 PPG (85th) on 450.0 YPG (12th).

The pick: The QB matchup commands the spotlight plus WR James Washington of OSU (leads the nation with an average of 24.1 YPC and his 32 career receiving TDs is tops among all active FBS players) will not want to accept "second-billing" to West Virginia's David Sills V (see above). Oklahoma State returns home next Saturday for "Bedlam" with Oklahoma but that game won't hold much importance if the Cowboys lose here. Yes, these are two offensive juggernauts but I've 'made a living:" playing these high totals under, all season. Second verse, same as the first. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal opened the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but after losing badly at USC 42-24 in its second game of the season and following with a 201-7 loss at San Diego State, the Cardinal's season was headed for big trouble. However, led by spectacular RB Bryce Love (198.1 YPG rushing on 10.3 YPC and 11 TDs), Stanford has won four in a row while averaging 41.0 PPG. The now 20th-ranked Cardinal will travel to Reser Stadium in Corvallis on Thursday night to take on the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State is 1-6, beating only Portland State and that win came just 35-32 here at home.

Stanford: The Cardinal last played on Oct. 14th, a 49-7 rout on the road at Oregon. The Cardinal out-gained the Ducks by a 504-309 margin. Love had 147 yards and two TDs and QB Kellar Chryst was back healthy, throwing for 181 yards (15 of 21) with three TDs. Three Stanford QBs have combined for 11 TDs and three INTs but Chryst in the best of the bunch. Stanford's defense has not allowed more than 22.6 PPG in any of the last seven seasons, allowing 19 PPG or less, four times. This year the Cardinal are allowing 22.0 PPG (42nd) but on 416.9 YPG to rank 89th (unusually high for a Stanford team).

Oregon State: I noted above that OSU only owns one win, that unimpressive three-point victory over Portland, which was back on Sep. 2nd. The Beavers have since lost five in a row and a head coach as well, in Gary Andersen. Andersen stepped down on Oct. 9 after the Beavers dropped five of their first six games by an average of 31.4 PPG. Interim head coach Cory Hall's first game was Oregon State's most competitive since beating Portland State by three points on Sept. 2, but the Beavers fell to Colorado 36-33 on Oct. 14. Oregon State held a 33-29 lead with 4:22 left in that game but the Beaver defense were unable to hold the lead as Colorado scored on a 13-yard TD pass with just 1:34 left in regulation. The Beavers actually out-gained the Buffaloes by a 569-385 margin. Leading the way for Oregon State was RB Ryan Nall who carried the ball 24 times for 172 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, Oregon State is a mess, allowing a whopping 43.7 PPG (128th) on 478.3 (117th).

The pick: Expect RB Love and a now-healthy QB Chyrst to have their way against OSU's defense but also note that Satnford's D is a little 'off' in 2017, especially against the run, allowing 196.3 YPG on the ground (98th) on 5.0 YPC. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Two bitter AFC North rivals square off Sunday at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field. The Cincinnati Bengals opened the 2017 season losing two games at home (scored only nine points) but a Week 3 OT loss at Green Bay (just 27-24), helped turn their season around. The Bengals have won at Cincy 31-7 and then back home against Buffalo (20-16) since, so they'll have a chance to get back to .500 with a win here against the hated-Steelers. Pittsburgh will be looking to maintain its place atop the AFC North (curently 4-20, after handing KC its first loos of the 2017 season last Sunday on the road. Pittsburgh won 19-13 at Arrowhead, holding the Chiefs to just 251 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, RB Le’Veon Bell had his best game of 2017, rushing for 179 yards and a TD, while Antonio Brown led Pittsburgh with 8 catches for 155 yards and the team’s lone receiving TD (now there's a shocker!). As for Big Ben, he bounced back from a four-INT game in Week 5, by completing 17 of 25 for 252 yards (one TD and one INT).

Cincinnati: The Bengals started slowly offensively in 2017 (see above) and remain low in most offensive categories. Cincy ranks 30th with 16.8 YPG on 311.0 YPG, which ranks 24th. QB Andy Dalton had a 'nightmare' of a first game (four INTs and a lost fumble) but competed 80.7% against Creen Bay and Cleveland (6 TDs / 0 INTs), before throwing two INTs in the win over Buffalo in Week 5. He will eventually need help from a running game averaging just 84.0 YPG (28th). Keeping Cincy 'alive' is a defense which ranks second in scoring (16.2 PPG) and total yards (262.8 YPG).

Pittsburgh: No one really bought Big Ben's "Maybe I don't have it anymore" lament and looking around the AFC, isn't Pittsburgh as likely as any team to be playing in a second straight AFC championship game. Big Ben's a proven winner and in Bell and Brown, the Steelers may just have the best RB and WR in all of the NFL (name a better set of teammates!). Pittsburgh's offense will be just fine by year's end and as always, the defense is near the top in most categories. How about 4th in points allowed (17.0 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (272.0 YPG)

The pick: Big Ben is in his 14th year (hard to believe) and while it's been slow-sledding, expect him to be just fine, working with Bell and Brown. As for the Bengals, the team's 'ugly' 0-2 start is behind them and a Week 6 bye may have been "just what the doctor ordered." Two defenses usually spell 'under' but "not so fast!" You have two QBs more than capable of putting up points and in Brown and A.J. Green, two of the NFL's very best WRs, as well. Also, there is talk that the bye week has allowed WR John Ross (Cincy's No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft out of Washington) enough time to get over a knee injury that bothered him all season. Surprise, this game is headed over. Make it an 8* play.

The set-up: The (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) Oklahoma State Cowboys are ranked 10th in the latest AP poll and travel to Austin to play the (3-3, 2-1 Big 12) Texas Longhorns at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. OSU brings the nation's No. 1 offense (617.2 YPG) and its No. 2 scoring offense (48.8 PPG) into the contest, after gaining a school-record 747 yards in a 59-16 rout of Baylor last Saturday. The Longhorns are off their annual Red River Showdown against Oklahoma, a game in which Texas rebound from a 23-10 deficit to take a 24-23 4th-quarter lead, only to lose 29-24.

Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph is completing 66.7 percent with 19 TDs and just four INTs, with OSU leading the nation with 411.2 YPG through the air. Considering how "pass-happy" the offense is, it's impressive that the Cowboys are also averaging 199.5 YPG on the ground (on 5.4 YPC), led by RB Hill's 633 yards on 6.0 YPC. With the kind of numbers OSU's offense puts up, the defense has to be good but not great. That's a fair description for an OSU stop-unit that's allowing 24.3 PPG (56th).

Texas: Steve Buechele opened the season as Texas' starting QB but it was freshman Sam Ehlinger who led the comeback against Texas. He's completing just 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,178 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions but does have has at least one TD pass in all four of his games this season. Of greater importance is his ability to run, as Ehlinger has rushed for 217 yards (5.2 YPC) in the Longhorns' last two games. He will start in this one, leading an offense averaging 33.7 PPG (41st). Defensively, Texas is allowing 24.7 PPG on 381.5 YPG but it's hard to ignore the 518 yards it allowed last Saturday to Oklahoma, a team with a similar QB to Rudolph, in Baker Mayfield.

The pick: Oklahoma State was a trendy pick to make the four-team College Football Playoff but that was before it was upset at home 44-31 by TCU back on Sep. 23. TCU is now the leader of the pack in the Big 12 and currently ranks 4th in the latest AP poll. OSU is quite 'dead' yet but the Cowboys no longer have any margin of error. The Longhorns hold a 24-7 series lead over Oklahoma State and a 15-5 advantage in Austin but the Cowboys have put their mark on the series by winning five of the past seven meetings. In fact, after losing 15 of 16 times in Austin, the Cowboys have won the last four meetings in Austin, marking the longest winning streak against Texas at home by one team. Here's the catch though, Tom Herman’s Houston & Texas teams are a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog! Best way to go here is an 8* on the Over, as the Texas D won't be able to stop Rudolph and Co, while Ehlinger's dual-threat ability will allow Texas to score as well.

The set-up: Western Kentucky opened 1-2 but enter Friday's game on a three-game winning streak (but just 1-2 ATS). The Hilltoppers go for their 4th straight win with a visit to the Old Dominion Monarchs, who are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Both schools reside in the East Division of C-USA, with Western Ky sitting at 2-1 and ODU at 0-2.

Western Kentucky: Jeff Brohm took over at Western Ky when Bobby Petrino left for Louisville and led the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths. Western Ky won all three of those bowl games, although Brohm took the Purdue job prior to last year's bowl win. Mike Sanford Jr. is a first-time head coach and his offense has averaged only 25.5 PPG (87th), after Brohm's three teams averaged 44.4, 44.3 and 45.5 PPG. However, the defense allows a modest 18.2 PPG (19th) on 340.5 YPG (34th). In comparison, Western Ky had allowed 25.9 and 24.6 PPG the last two seasons.

Old Dominion: Monarch fans may already be looking ahead to the start of basketball season. The offense stinks, averaging 17.0 PPG (123rd) on 287.3 YPG (126th). The defense is no better, allowing 34.7 PPG (110th) on 436.8 YPG (103rd). ODU has a freshman QB in Steven Williams and RBs Ray Lawry (back healthy) and Jeremy Cox have underachieved.

The pick: Western Kentucky is coming off a 45-16 victory versus the Charlotte 49ers on Saturday and while the Hilltoppers didn't run the ball well, QB Mike White completed 33 of 47 for 398 yards with five TDs. I realize this is not the Western Ky offense of the last three seasons but these two schools have met just three times, all coming these last three season. Western Ky has won all three, with the final scores being 59-24, 55-30 and 66-51. Doing the math, that's an average final of 95.0 PPG. Yes, make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Chiefs welcomed the Steelers to Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 5-0 (also 5-0 ATS). Kansas City entered last week's game averaging nearly 33 points through its first five victories but its offense was bottled up (held to 13 points on 251 yards) while its 27th-ranked run defense (130.7 YPG) was stampeded for 194 yards.The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, as the Raiders get set to host one of their most-hated rivals (from the days of the original AFL), Oakland will be trying to snap a four-game losing streak.

Kansas City: QB Alex Smith did not have his best game of 2017 in KC's 19-13 loss to the Steelers but he does enter this contest having completed 72.9 percent of his passes
with 12 TDs and zero INTs (in 192 attempts), earning a 119.2 QB rating. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (630 YR on 5.9 YPC) ran for a season-low 21 yards (on nine attempts) vs. Pittsburgh but had five receptions for 89 yards to become the first rookie in league history to amass at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first six games. Multi-threat receiver Tyreek Hill (30 catches) injured his neck in Sunday's game and it was feared he might have a concussion but the team pronounced him good to go. TE Kelce leads with 33 receptions plus Hunt has 21 catches. KC's defense has allowed 378.2 YPG (29th) but has fared much better in the most-important defensive stat, points allowed (21.7 PPG, which ranks 13th).

Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back has slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game last Sunday but he had another mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating) and now has four interceptions in his past three contests, after tossing only six picks in the entire 2016 season.
The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception but deep threat Amari Cooper has just 18 catches while averaging only 8.1 YPC on the season. RB Marshawn Lynch was expected to be a huge boost to the running game but his 63 yards week represented a season-high. Lynch has just 257 YR on 3.7 YPC, with Oakland ranking 24th in rushing yards at 93.7 YPG. Oakland's defense is allowing 349.8 YPG (23rd) but a more modest 21.0 YPG (12th), although only three teams in the NFL have fewer than the Raiders' 11 sacks!

The pick: The Chiefs travel to Oakland Thursday night, looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since October of 2015. What's more, the Chiefs have won nine straight road games. The Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Oakland. That said, I think we'll get an "all-out" effort from the Raiders in this one. However, in the team's four-game skid, Oakland has scored 10, 10, 17 and 16 points (that's just 13.3 PPG). That brings in this stat..."the under" is 18-6 in the last 24 meeting between these hated rivals. Make the under a 10* play in this one.

The set-up: The NY Giants are playing in prime time for the third time in six weeks, when they welcome the Broncos to MetLife Stadium on NBC's Sunday night football. The Giants, who went 11-5 last season, have opened 0-5 and are practically guaranteed to miss the postseason for the fifth time in six years since the team won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. The Broncos are off a bye week and check in at 3-1, with all three wins coming at home (2-0-1 ATS).

Denver: The Broncos are hardly a dominant team, losing 26-16 at Buffalo in Week 3 and needing a last-second interception to beat Oakland prior to the bye. However, Denver played its beat game of the season here at home in Week 2, dominating the Cowboys 42-17. QB Trevor Siemian is completing 62.7% with seven TDs and four INTs (89.0 QB rating). C.J. Anderson has run for 330 yard, leading a running game averaging 143.0 YPG (3rd). There is nothing wrong with the Broncos' defense, which is allowing a league-low 260.8 YPG, including ranking No. 1 against the run (50.8 YPG). Denver is allowing 18.5 PPG to rank 7th.

NY Giants: Eli Manning receives most of the 'heat' but the Giants have virtually no running game, averaging 77.8 YPG (30th). RB Paul Perkins was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman to lead a backfield that has done little. Eli is completing 67.8% but with eight TDs and five INTs (89.1 QB rating). Week 5 was not good to him, as he lost his three top WRs to ankle injuries, including Odell Beckham Jr, possibly for the year. Manning himself was examined for neck issues after the game.
The defense was second in the NFL by allowing 17.6 PPG in 2016 but TY's team is allowing 24.4 PPG (24th). It can't possibly be good news that the Giants suspended one of their top defensive players in cornerback Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. He was apparently upset over his role with the team after being pulled from the Giants' 27-22 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, abruptly left the practice facility, and coach Ben McAdoo suspended him.

The pick: Eli's receiving corps is devastated and he has no running game, as he looks to take on an outstanding Denver defense, coming off a bye week. As for Denver's offense, excluding the team's 42-point outburst against Dallas, Denver is averaging 18.7 PPG. This game has "under, written all over it!" Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: It's a Week 6 game featuring AFC East rivals at MetLife Stadium this Sunday, as the New England Patriots visit the New York Jets. Who could have ever predicted in Week 1 that both teams would be 3-2 heading into this contest, meaning the winner will take the early AFC East lead. this contest. After all, the Pats are defending Super Bowl champs and the Jets, after a summer 'fire sale,' seemed destined to be one of a handful of teams that woiuld be in teh mix for teh NFL 2018 Daraft's No. 1 overall pick. However, the Pats were upended in the 2017 season-opener at home by the Chiefs and need to eke out an 'ugly' 189-14 win in Week 5 at Tampa Bay just to reach 3-2. Meanwhile, after opening 0-2, the Jets have gone 3-0 SU & ATS the last three weeks, with the team's defense holding those three opponents to just 40 combined points (13.3 PPG).

New England: There's nothing wrong with Tom Brady, as he's completing 68.2% with 11 TDs and just one interception, giving him a QB rating of 112.0. The Pats rank first in passing (320.4 YPG), the main reason New England ranks first overall in total yards (419.4 YPG), while checking in at third in scoring at 29.6 PPG. Brady's accomplished all this with injuries to some of his key receivers plus playing behind an OL that's allowed him to be sacked 16 times. Brady has also has to make up for a defense, which has been unable to stop anyone, particularly through the air, allowing an NFL-worst 323.4 YPG (12 TDs allowed with just three INTs for a an opposing QB rating of 109.2). The Pats allow 28.4 PPG to rank 30th.

NY Jets: There was talk the Jets would threaten the Browns and that the loser of their Week 5 meeting could go 0-16, after two weeks. However, after losing 45-10 in Oakland in Week 2, the Jets have managed to win and cover three straight. Granted, their 'victims' have been the Dolphins, Jags and Browns (Cleveland will make a strong run at 0-16!) but still, allowing just 13.3 PPG in their winning streak is impressive. Josh McCown, a journeyman who toiled for the Browns last season, has completed 63 of 84 passes in the winning streak (that's 75.0%), twice recording QB ratings of better than 100.0. The Jets don't have a big-name RB but still have maneged to average 111.4 YPG to rank 13th.

The pick: The Pats will take the field looking for their 11th win in 13 regular-season meetings against Jets. OK, Brady is arguably the best QB in NFL history, winning five Super Bowls while playing for only the New England Patriots since he was drafted in the sixth round. He has a 186-54 career regular-season record and 25-9 mark in the playoffs. Meanwhile, McCown has been on 10 different NFL rosters since he was drafted in the third round in 2002. His career record as a starter is 21-44 career record and he has never sniffed the playoffs. No contest, right? Well, New England has allowed at least 33 points in three of five games this year and even in last weeks' 19-14 win, Winston threw for 334 yards against the Pats' defense-less secondary, plus needed Buc PK Nick Folk to miss three FGs to avoid another loss. McCown will do damage to New England's secondary, just like every QB has so far this season. However, Brady will 'light up' the Jets' D, as well. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal began the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out after back-to-back road losses at USC (42-24) and San Diego State (20-17). However, the Cardinal eked out a 20-17 win at Utah (then ranked 20th) last Saturday, giving them a third straight win. Stanford is back in the top-25 (at No. 23) and will welcome the 4-2 Oregon Ducks to Stanford Stadium on Saturday night. Both teams are 4-2 but while Stanford is 3-1 in Pac 12 play, Oregon is just 1-2.

Oregon: The Ducks opened the season 3-0 but have lost two of three conference games, after falling 33-10 at home last Saturday to Washington State (Cougars are currently ranked 8th). New head coach Willie Taggart lost starting QB Sean Hebert (9 TDs and 2 INTs, while completing 68.3 %) early on in Oregon's 45-24 home win over Cal and on Sep. 30. Braxton Burmeister has stepped in to complete 57.1 percent of his passes for 149 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Burmeister enters this game with just 28 career pass attempts under his belt. The running game averages a healthy 239.3 YPG (20th) and the Ducks enter this contest averaging 43.0 PPG (11th). The defense has allowed just 338.3 YPG (29th) but allows 27.2 PPG, to rank 76th.

Stanford: There's a saying that goes when a team has two starting QBs, it often has none. Keller Chryst and K.J. Costello have combined for seven touchdown passes and two interceptions this season but Stanford averages only 188.3 YPG through the air (93rd). However, Stanford just may have the nation's best RB in Bryce Love, who leads the way with 1,240 yards (10.5 YPC) and nine TDs. As a team, Stanford ranks 14th in rushing yards at 260.0 YPG. The D allows 434.8 YPG (102nd) but somehow has held opponents to a modest 24.5 PPG (55th).

The pick: Burmeister was a highly-touted QB coming in and should be much better here, in his second start. That Stanford defense has given up way too many yards to keep opponents under 25 points. Let's remember that Oregon was the nation's highest-scoring team heading into last Saturday's home game against Washington State but true freshman Burmeister struggled in his first start, with Oregon getting hammered 33-10 by the Cougars 33-10. The usually supportive crowd at Autzen Stadium booed the Ducks, so being on the road this weekend may be a blessing. Oregon's rush D has been outstanding so far but that D hasn't seen the likes of Stanford's Love. These teams have scored 74 and 78 points in meetings the last two seasons and this over/number comes in way too low. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns will meet Saturday at the Cotton Bowl on ESPN for the latest edition of the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners will 'limp in' off yet another shocking early-to-mid-season loss. "Big Game Bob" may be gone, but Oklahoma's penchant for losing games that it should win, is still "alive and well." Oklahoma climbed as high as No. 2 in the rankings after beating Ohio State on the road Sep. 9, but the Sooners have struggled in three games since, winning the first two (1-1 ATS) before last week's 'ugly' 38-31 loss to Iowa State in Norman, where Oklahoma closed as a 31-point favorite. It marks the SEVENTH consecutive season in which the Sooners have lost as a double-digit favorite. Tom Herman became a star in two years at Houston and was a 'natural' for the Texas job. The Longhorns opened the season ranked in the AP's preseason poll but promptly lost at home 51-41 to Maryland, as an 18-point favorite. However, the Longhorns have rebounded well, going 3-1 since, with their only loss being a 27-24 double-OT defeat at USC. Texas holds a 61-45-5 lead in the series, which began in 1900 and has been played at the Texas State Fair annually since 1929. Herman and Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley will be making their head coaching debuts in the Red River Showdown, marking the first time since 1947, when Blair Cherry's Longhorns beat Bud Wilkinson's Sooners, 34-14, that the rivalry has featured new coaches on both sidelines.

Oklahoma: QB Baker Mayfield completed 70.9% last season with 40 TDs and eight INTs. He's been just as good so far in 2017 (better?), completing 74.6% with 15 TDs and not a single INT in 134 pass attempts. Oklahoma ranks fifth in passing yards (3984.4 per) and secnd in total offense (587.0 YPG), while scoring 44.6 PPG (6th). The defense has been adequate, allowing 23.2 PPG (46th) on 356.0 YPG (44th). However, that's after allowing an average of 486 yards and 39.5 points over its last two games against Baylor and Iowa State? For Lincoln Riley (Stoops' replacement), this game will be HUGE. "I think in the past after a tough loss -- we haven't had many around here -- but when we've had them, we've been able to respond regardless of who we've played," Riley said. "I would hope that we have enough pride -- and I feel we do have enough pride as a team -- that we'd be motivated to go play Norman Junior High this week."

Texas: It won't be Norman Junior High this week for Riley and Oklahoma but rather Texas. You can assured that Tom Herman knows what this game means. What happens here, could set the tone for the remainder of the Longhorns' season. Herman has been coy about who his starting QB will be after sophomore starter Shane Buechele missed the Kansas State victory with a sprained ankle, with freshman Sam Ehlinger passing for 380 yards and two TDs, while also rushing for 107 more Saturday. Buechele is a good QB but many think Ehlinger has proven to be much more than valuable backup. The Texas defense has "picked itself up" after that embarrassing opening 51-41 loss to Maryland, allowing just 17.0 PPG the last four games (down to 23.8 PPG on the season).

The pick: Oklahoma lost another game as a double-digit favorite, so what else is new? However, here's a stat one can't ignore. The Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, Bob Stoops' first season in Norman (that's a long time!). Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in a school-record 15 consecutive games and go back and check out Mayfield's numbers this season (see above). The Sooners will be tough to keep off the scoreboard in this one but I also believe the Longhorns offense will "come to play." Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Sun Belt Conference takes 'center stage' for a second straight night, as the Texas State Bobcats go on the road to face the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns in a Thursday night matchup on ESPNU (South Alabama played at Troy Wednesday night on ESPN2). Texas State is 1-5 (0-2 in SBC play) and ULL is 2-3 (1-1 in SBC play). Texas State is off 3-9 and 2-10 season, so a 1-5 start is no surprise. ULL went 6-6 in the 2016 regular season, then lost 28-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. BTW, ULL has played in the New Orleans Bowl five times since 2011, winning four in a row before last year's loss (ULL went 4-8 in 2015).

Texas State: The Bobcats won their 2017 opener 20-11 over Houston Baptist but have lost five in a row since, failing to cover the last three. Texas State lost 45-27 to visiting UL-Monroe in its last game, allowing 589 overall yards, including 433 through the air. The Bobcats scored 20 points in the first quarter but just seven points the rest of the way. The team's offense has been awful, scoring only 14.5 PPG (125th) on 300.7 YPG (124th). The defense has collapsed the last three games, allowing 44, 45 and 45 points. It comes in allowing 33.7 PPG on the season (106th), on 410.8 YPG (87th).

Louisiana-Lafayette: The Ragin’ Cajuns won 21-16 as a six point road underdog last Saturday at Idaho, the team's first ATS win of the season. ULL averages 37.0 PPG (29th) on 418.2 YPG (60th) but the team's defense is a mess, allowing 46.2 PPG (129th) on 506.6 YPG (125th). These defense numbers are this bad despite the fact that ULL held Idaho to just 16 points on 279 yards last Saturday.

The pick: As I continue point out, I've consistently won in 2017 by going under high totals. That's not exactly the case here but like with Idaho, the Texas State offense (averaging only 14.5 PPG) is one ULL's defense can handle. I'm making the Under a 10* play.

The set-up: Through the season's first four weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs stand alone as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 4-0. The Chiefs are also a perfect 4-0 ATS after their 'miracle' finish last Monday night against the Redskins. The Chiefs are back on in primetime again in Week 5, this time in Houston against the 2-2 Texans for a SNF game at NRG Stadium on NBC. Houston's 19-12 win last season over KC ended a three-game losing streak in the series, including a 33-0 playoff rout in January 2016.

Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has played superbly for the Chiefs, who have scored at least 21 second-half points in three of their four victories. He's been stuck with the label of "game manager" for years but has eight TD passes without an interceptions (121 attempts) plus leads the NFL in both QB rating (124.2) and completing percentage (76.0%). Nothing "game-manager-like" in those numbers! Smith is not alone in being a major contributor to KC's offense in 2017. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (Toledo) has rushed for more than 100 yards three times and has 502 yards on the season, averaging 7.4 YPC with four TDs. Throw in 13 catches with two more TDs and he's been the league's best back 25 percent of the way through NFL 2017. TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill each have a team-high 21 catches, with two TD receptions apiece. Kansas City's offense ranks 2nd in both points scored (30.5 per) and total yards (405,2 per). The defense allows 359.5 YPG to rank 26th but only allows 19.2 PPG, which ranks 10th.

Houston: Bill O'Brien may never live down his decision to open the season with Tom Savage at QB over Deshaun Watson but now that he's "seen the light," the Texans are only looking forward. The Texans have been a different team since handing the keys of the offense to Watson, who accounted for five TDs in last week's 57-14 demolition of visiting Tennessee. Watson guided Clemson to back-to-back national championship showdowns with Alabama, shredding the Tide's defense in both games, while claiming the title in last January's rematch. Watson threw for 283 yards and four TDs plus ran for another score last Sunday, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. DeAndre Hopkins is Watson's favorite target with 31 receptions but fellow WR Will Fuller returned from injury to make a splashy debut against the Titans with a pair of TDs among his four catches. RB Lamar Miller scored his first two TDs of the season last week, piling up 131 yards from scrimmage, while Watson's running ability and rookie RB D'Onta Foreman provide solid complements (Texans average 139.8 YPG rushing to rank fifth). Houston's defense led the NFL in total yards allowed in 2016 (301.3 YPG) and while the Texans are allowing fewer yards in 2017 (291.5 YPG), that figure ranks only fifth-best.

The pick: Yes, the Smith and Hunt duo plus the play of Deshaun Watson make this look like an attractive over play. However, these are two outstanding defensive teams (KC's YPG stats so far, not withstanding), so the play here is an 8* on the Under.

The set-up: The Buffalo Bills last made the playoffs back in 1999, the longest postseason drought of any NFL team. However, they visit Cincinnati at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday with a surprising 3-1 record. The Bengals opened 0-3 in 2017 but were able to win their first game of the season last Sunday 31-7, although it came over the hapless (helpless?) Browns.

Buffalo: New head coach Sean McDermott is riding high but is also savvy enough not to take the 1-3 Bengals lightly."This is a team that has been in the playoffs the last 'X' amount of years," McDermott told reporters. ”Anyone who looks at a record at this point in the season is making a huge mistake. This is a good football team." Buffalo's Week 3 home win over Denver was nice but its 23-17 in Atlanta over the previously unbeaten Falcons got everyone's attention. The Bills led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but this year Buffalo has struggled, averaging only 112.8 YPG (26th). McCoy had 110 yards in Week 1 but over the last three games, which included impressive wins over the Broncos and Falcons, he has only 106 yards, while averaging just 2.3 YPC! I'm not sure what to make of QB Tyrod Taylor but the bottom line is, he leads an offense averaging just 18.2 PPG (23rd) on 284.2 YPG (29th). Buffalo's defense has been the key so far, allowing a league-low 13.5 PPG on 306.0 YPG (8th).

Cincinnati: Bengal fans were calling for Andy Dalton to be benched after Cincy opened with back-to-back home losses to the Ravens and Texans, while failing to reach the end zone (had scored just nine points). However, after throwing four INTs in Week 1, Dalton hasn't had one since, plus he's completed 80.8 percent of his throws the last two games, passing for 498 yards and six TDs! The Bengals took the Packers to OT at Greem Bay (lost 27-24) but then won 31-7 at Cleveland. Dalton is not getting much help from his running game, as rookie Joe Mixon has been a major disappointment (2.6 YPC) and the ground game averages only 88.8 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Like Buffalo, the Cincy defense has been excellent, ranking third in both points scored (16.8 PPG) and 273.2 YPG.

The pick: Does a matchup between two top defenses spell an under? Let me first say that I'm not so sure Cincy's defense is all that good. The Bengals have faced Joe Flacco (on the downside of his career), Deshaun Watson (in his first NFL start) and DeShone Kizer, who is not an NFL QB. When facing Rodgers, he lit them up for 313 yards and three TDs. Taylor is no Rodgers but I look for the Bills to score more than expected. As for the Bengals, since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator these last two weeks, Andy Dalton has looked more comfortable, with the Bengals averaging 27.5 PPG (Dalton has six TDS without an INT). This low number means the 8* play is on the Over.

The set-up: Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) will host Maryland (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday. Urban Meyer leads his No. 10 Buckeyes against one of his former assistants for the second week in row, this time around it's D.J. Durkin. This is Durkin's second season at Maryland and the Terps opened the season with a win a shocking 51-41 win Texas (+18) and have also added a 31-24 road win at Minnesota last Saturday (as a two-TD dog), to open Big Ten play. Maryland doesn't appear to be as over-matched as the 6-7 team that was clobbered 62-3 by Ohio State last year. Ohio State is trying to put its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma behind them, in an effort to climb back into the CFP discussion. Dominating wins over Army, UNLV and Rutgers don't hurt the Buckeyes' chances but also don't help all that much, either.

Maryland: The Terrapins rebounded from a surprising home loss to Central Florida by winning 31-24 at Minnesota last week to open its Big Ten slate. However, let's note that UCF is 3-0 and currently ranked 25th in the latest AP poll. Sophomore Max Bortenschlager completed 18-of-28 passes for 154 yards and two TDs plus also ran for a score against Minnesota in his first start after the Terrapins’ top two quarterbacks, Kasim Hill and Tyrrell Pigrome, went down with season-ending knee injuries. RB Ty Johnson has 411 rushing yards on 8.9 YPC with four TDs, leading a ground game that averages 233.5 YPG (24th) on 5.7 YPC with 12 scores. Defensively, Maryland is allowing 30.0 PPG (92nd) and will be severely tested by an Ohio State offense which has scored 148 points over the last three games since the loss to Oklahoma!

Ohio State: J.T. Barrett 'laid an egg' against Oklahoma but has comlalted 71.2 percent for 765 yards with 10 TDs (no INTs over 73 attempts) , while adding 125 rushing yards and another TD in OSU's three-game winning streak. Freshman RB Dobbins has 573 yards (7.6 YPC) and three TDs on the season, leading a ground game accounting for 241.0 YPG (20th). The defense is holding opponents to 160.0 YPG (16) on 335.6 YPG (34th).

The pick: Barrett has been outstanding the last three games and on the season, has 13 TD passes spread around over nine different players. Freshman J.K. Dobbins has been terrific and now Mike Weber, who ran for 1069 yards last year on 6.0 YP is back, running for three scores against Rutgers after struggling with hamstring issues. The Ohio State defense has allowed fewer than 100 passing yards in each of the last three games, after averaging 403 in the team's first two. With all due respect to Bortenschlager, he is the team's third-team QB. I'll note that Ohio State is just 6-12 its last 18 laying more than 21 points but Meyer's Ohio State teams have a 17-1 SU record in October since 2012. He's shown no mercy against ex-assistant Chris Ash, beating Rutgers 56-0 and 54-0. He took Durkin's Maryland team 'to the woodshed' last year (62-3). You may want to "think twice" about laying the big price but OSU has averaged a notch under 50 PPG its last three and will 'cover' most of this over/under number itself. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Friday night football on ESPN will feature the 1-4 BYU Cougars hosting the 2-2 Boise State Broncos. The Cougars are desperately trying to save their season, as it sure looks as if BYU's streak of 12 consecutive bowl appearances is in real danger. Boise State has been to 15 straight bowls but with road games here at BYU and and next weekend at San Diego State (currently 5-0 and ranked No. 19 in the latest AP poll), it hardly looks like "smooth sailing" for the Broncos, either.

Boise State: The Broncos fell 42-23 at home in their last game (Sep. 22), making it Boise State’s worst home loss since 2001. QB Brett Rypien was 24 of 42 for 285 yards without a TD pass and one INT vs. the Cavs. He's had a injury-marred season and is not even Boise's clear-cut No. 1 QB. To emphasize the Broncos' woes, I'll note that the team's "other QB," Montell Cozart, is the team's leading rusher with 191 yards. Boise State is averaging just 118.0 YPG on the ground (104th). The Broncos are averaging 29.8 PPG and it's been quite awhile since the team hasn't averaged at least 30 PPG (I quickly looked back eight years and all seasonal averages were 30-plus points). The defense comes in allowing 29.0 PPG (8656th).

BYU: Speaking of a lack of scoring, it's hard to fathom seeing a BYU team averaging only 12.6 PPG (126th). The Cougars can't pass (152.6 YPG ranks 118th) or run (104.0 YPG also ranks 118th), leaving them 129th overall in total yards at 256.6 YPG! The Cougars opened with an unimpressive 20-6 home win over Portland State and enter this game on a four-game slide. BYU led 21-7 a minute and a half into the second quarter against Utah State in its last game but then allowed 33 unanswered points, mostly due to seven turnovers. Ouch. Koy Detmer Jr. stepped in for injured QB Beau Hoge (who was already playing for No. 1 QB Mangum) and things went from bad to worse. Detmer took over and went seven of 20 with no scores and three interceptions of his own. Hoge is listed as questionable coming into this game. The BYU defense has played as well as one could expect, considering the fact that the team's offense gives them no 'cover.' The Cougars are allowing 26.4 PPG (72nd) on 381.6 YPG (68th).

The pick: With BYU and Boise State's recent (and not-so recent) history, who could have imagined them playing a game against each other and having the over/under number open 45? My sinning totals this year have often been playing "under" and on "inflated numbers" but here, it's just the opposite. Current 2017 form keeps this number low but it's TOO low. Both schools didn't play last weekend so make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs come into Week 4 as one of just two unbeaten teams in the NFL (defending champion Atlanta is the other, pending its Sunday game home game with the Bills). KC will welcome the 2-1 Redskins to Arrowhead Stadium for MNF, with Washington coming off an impressive 27-10 win over KC's AFC West rival Oakland in Week 3's SNF contest. This series dates back to 1971, when Hank Stram's last great Chiefs team beat George Allen's first Washington team at old Municipal Stadium in an exciting 27-20 final. KC owns the series, winning eight of nine, with the last meeting coming in 2013, when KC routed Washington 45-10 in Arrowhead.

Washington: The Redskins lost their opener, at home to the Eagles but then won 27-20 out in LA over the Rams, before shutting down David Carr and the Oakland offense (Raiders were held to 128 yards and seven FDs!) in a 27-10 home win in Week 3. QB Kirk Cousins was 25-of-30 for 365 yards and three TDs against the Raiders and has completed 68.0 percent for 784 yards with five TDs and just one INT on the season (105.3 QB rating). The running game does not have an established star but ranks sixth in averaging 136.3 YPG. The defense is allowing 20.0 PPG (10th) on 276.0 YPG (5th).

Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has always been best-known as a "game manager" but he's completing 77.4 percent for 774 yards with seven TDs and zero INTs (132.7 QB rating leads the NFL!). He has more 'weapons' that ever-before, with WR Hill (16 catches for two TDs), TE Kelce (14 catches) plus rookie RB Kareem Hunt has been 2017's "breakout star." The former Toledo Rocket has 401 yards rushing (8.5 YPC) and four TDs plus nine catches, including two TDs! KC is averaging 31.0 PPG on 397.3 YPG, ranking third in both categories. The defense has allowed a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) but also 369.0 YPG (27th), including 257.3 YPG through the air (23rd).

The pick: Andy Reid-coached teams have always been known for their defense and special teams play but with a somewhat conservative offense. However, the Chiefs are averaging 31.0 PPG so far in 2017 and suddenly, have become a "big-play" team. The Chiefs enter this contest having recorded at least one TD of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," an elated Alex Smith was quoted as saying. He's right but also, expect Washington's Kirk Cousins to "show up" for this MNF showdown. Both teams have balanced offenses (see above for a reminder) and the play here is a 10* on the over.

The set-up: The Jacksonville Jaguars return from London after pounding the Baltimore Ravens 44-7 last Sunday, one of the more surprising Week 3 outcomes. The 37-point win represents the Jaguars' largest margin of victory in 10 years and they'll try to ride that positive mojo into their Week encounter at MetLife Stadium this Sunday against the NY Jets. How about the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets? They nearly earned their first shutout in eight seasons, dominating the Dolphins by teh score of 20-6, with Miami not getting on the board until the game's final play!

Jacksonville: The Jags sit 2-1 for the first time since 2007. Blake Bortles nearly lost his starting job during the preseason, coming off a poor 2016. He's only completing 59.6 percent (no big deal) and the Jags rank 23rd in passing YPG (193.3) but he's got six TDs passes (had four vs. the Ravens) and only TWO interceptions. "The biggest thing with Blake is probably psychological. I think mentally, him understanding that we're only going as far as he takes us," said TE Marcedes Lewis. BTW...Lewis caught three of Bortles' four touchdown passes against the Ravens. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has 199 rushing yards this season and while that may not seem like a big deal to many, it's the most by any Jacksonville player through their first three career games plus he has scored one TD in all three games. The D has been terrific, ranking second in total yards (259.7 per) and 4th in points (17.0 per).

NY Jets: Speaking of a good defensive effort, the Jets, after some were waxing on about the team having a win-less season, completely shut down the Dolphins, holding them out of the end zone until the game's final play, while allowing just 225 yards for the entire contest. Much-maligned QB Josh McCown had another efficient game (18 of 23 for 249 yards), including a 69-yard TD pass to Robby Anderson. There hasn't been much offense from New York, with the Jets averaging 280.7 YPG (27th) on 17.3 PPG (22nd). The D will be tested by the Jags' offense, as New York ranks 23rd in scoring (24.0 PPG) and 24th in yards allowed (347.7 per).

The pick: Seeing the Jags as a road favorite is disconcerting. They are favored on the road for the first time since they played the Indianapolis Colts in 2011 with Curtis Painter filling in for the injured Peyton Manning. When Jacksonville won 29-7 at Houston in Week 1, it was only the third time Bortles had won the road in 23 tries! The key here is this very low over/under number. Scoring was low in Weeks 1 & 2 but Week 3 games averaging just a tick under 50 PPG. Jags playing with confidence plus McCown may just surprise again. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Navy is 3-0 to open the 2017 season (2-0 in AAC play) and looks to start 4-0 for the second time in three years when it visits the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa Saturday at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Tulsa could use a feel good victory here, as the Golden Hurricane have opened 1-3, with the team's lone win coming 66-42 over ULL (another 1-3 school) at home. However, losing at home 16-13 to New Mexico last Saturday hardly inspires much confidence, plus the team lost a 54-51 hesrt-breaker at Toledo the week before!

Navy: I'm a huge fan of head coach Ken Niumatalolo and Navy's overall discipline. QB Zach Abey is completing just 36 percent of his passes but he has made the most of his nine completions, throwing for 295 yards and three TDs. His strength is leading a rushing attack which averages 393.0 YPG (2nd), after Navy rushed for 569 yards in last week's 42-32 victory over Cincinnati (the second-most in program history!). Abey has 471 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) and four TDs. Navy is averaging 35.7 PPG, well on its way to its fifth consecutive season in which the Midshipmen will have averaged better than 31.8 PPG! Navy allowed 31.0 PPG in 2016 but just 24.0 PPG so far in 2017, an improvement of a TD per game!

Tulsa: QB Chad President is completing a modest 55.9 percent of his passes for 677 yards with just one TD and one interception. That's hardly the standard for past Tulsa QBs. However, Tulsa's ground game is averaging 311.5 YPG (4th), the reason Tulsa checks in scoring 38.5 PPG. The problem for Tulsa is, its defense is allowing 42.8 PPG (124th) on 590.2 YPG (129th).

The pick: OK, so here we go again. Regulars are well aware that I've 'made a killing' with my CFB totals in 2017, specializing in going under on over/under numbers like this, which are 'sky high.' Let's chalk up another one here. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The BYU Cougars have opened the season 1-3 and Friday night will travel to Romney Stadium in Logan, Utah to take on the 2-2 Utah State Aggies. The Cougars were off last Saturday, after losing 40-6 at home to Wisconsin on Sep. 16. The Cougars were out-gained by the Badgers 491-to-192 in total yards, as the the team's season-long offensive woes continued (BYU ranks 130th in scoring at 9.8 YPC). Utah State improved to 2-2 on the season after defeating San Jose State 61-10 this past Saturday. The Aggies jumped all over Spartans, scoring the game's first 55 points and out-gained them by a margin of 589-to-171 in total yards.

BYU: It's hard to imagine that BYU, a school known for its offensive prowess over the years, ranks 130th in scoring and 129th in total yards (221.8 YPG). Tanner Mangum was named the starting QB prior to the season but suffered a leg injury during the final play of the Cougars' 19-13 loss to Utah on Sep. 9. Beau Hoge started in place of Mangum against the Badgers, completing 11 of 20 passes for 111 yards and two interceptions in what was the first start of his collegiate career. According to BYU head coach Kalani Sitake, Mangum's availability against the Aggies is still up in the air (note: Mangum took the field as a team captain wearing a protective boot and with an accompanying riding scooter prior to the Cougars' 40-6 loss to Wisconsin). Defensively, BYU has allowed 27.0 PPG (53rd) on 404.0 YPG (82nd).

Utah State: Dominating San Jose State is nothing to brag too much about. Leading the way for Utah State was QB Kent Myers, who completed 18-24 passes for 181 yards and two TDs with an INT. The Aggies are averaging 33.0 PPG (56th) on 439.0 YPG (55th) with nice balance (264.0 passing / 175.0 rushing). Defensively, the Aggies are allowing an average of 32.0 PPG (103rd) on 385.0 YPG (66th). Utah State has been helped by forced nine turnovers in four games.

The pick: This is the 87th meeting of this series (BYU leads 48-35-3) but I'll note that Utah State has won seven straight home games against non-conference opponents. BYU comes in with an offense which has done nothing but the Cougars are dropping way down in class after losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin (combined 10-1 SU). The Cougars have dominated this series since 1983 (won 25 of 28) and I see a "breakout performance." This 'low' total sets up a 10* play on the Over.

The set-up: The NFL's longest rivalry resumes in Week 4's Thursday night game on CBS. The 1-2 Chicago Bears and 2-1 Green Bay Packers meet at Lambeau Field. Back on Sep. 25, 1960, the Chicago Bears, who were coached by the legendary George Halas, beat the Green Bay Packers, who were coached by the future legend Vince Lombardi, 17-14. That victory gave the Bears he Bears a commanding 50-26-6 edge in the series. However, after the Packers swept last year's two games, the series is knotted at 94-94-6. That means that with a victory tonight, the Packers could take the series lead for the first time since 1932!

Chicago: Many are not sold on Chicago's current starting QB Mike Glennon. He is completing 67.3 percent of his passes but for a modest 615 yards (Chicago ranks 27th in passing yards), while tossing three TDs and three INTs, giving him a QB rating of only 79.8. However, in fairness, Chicago's wide receiver corps have been ravaged by injury, The running game has been a nice surprise, averaging 121.7 YPG (8th) on 5.0 YPC, led by Howard (197 yards on 4.4 YPC with 3 TDs) and Cohen (157 yards on 6.5 YPC). Chicago will need to find a way to score more, as it is averaging only 15.7 PPG (28th). The defense has been average, allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 321.7 YPG (12th). The strength is its rush D, holding opponents to 83.7 YPG to rank 8th.

Green Bay: Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games. Although most teams would be just fine with their starting QB owning a passer rating of 93.1, it marks just the third time Rodgers' QB rating is below 100 in the 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games (3.0 YPC). Green Bay comes in averaging only 69.0 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th in the league. The defense has allowed a modest 296.7 YPG (8th-best) but also 22.3 PPG, just 18th-best.

The pick: Rodgers has 17 TD passes versus just one interception in his last six meetings with Chicago and he's 15-4 against Chicago with a QB rating of 105.7. I'm not about to go against "the Pack," especially since Chicago comes in on a nine-game road losing streak (last road win was Week 16 of the 2015 season at Tampa Bay). However, the Bears have been quietly playing better than expected. Chicago lost to the defending NFC champion Falcons by just six points in Week 1 and are coming off a shocking home upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. in OT last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers are still dealing with offensive line issues to the point they’re signing players off of other teams practice squads in hopes of patching things up. Both teams are off OT wins and playing on a short week. The play here is a 10* on the Under.

The set-up: It's Sunday night NFL action on NBC from FedEx Field, as the 2-0 Oakland Raiders visit the 1-1 Washington Redskins. The Raiders have quickly established that last year's 12-4 season was no fluke, beating the Titans 26-16 in Tennessee (impressive win) and then routing the Jets back in Oakland, 45-20. The Redskins were upset at home in Week 1 by the Eagles (30-17) but the team's 27-20 Week 2 win in LA over the Rams is starting to look better, after the Rams have scored 46 and 41 points in their other two games to open the 2017 season.

Oakland: Derek Carr is completing 75.0 percent of his passes for 492 yards with five TDs and zero INTs (126.5 QB rating) five touchdowns and zero interceptions. WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined for 258 receiving yards and four TDs while TE Jared Cook has nine receptions. Crabtree has 20 TD catches since the start of the 2015 season, tying him for fourth in the NFL in that span (pretty sweet FA pick-up!). The running game is chipping in 144.5 YPG (5th), while averaging a healthy 5.2 YPC. With the offense averaging 35.5 PPG (2nd-best), the defense is doing just fine in allowing 18.0 PPG (10th).

Washington: QB Kirk Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season but is off to a slow start (only 419 passing yards) after losing his starting WRs in free agency. He is trying to establish a rapport with Terrelle Pryor (eight catches for just 97 yards without a TD catch) and it sure won't help if TE Jordan Reed plus starting RB Rob Kelley both miss (each is listed as questionable due to injuries). However, third-down back Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine filled in nicely for a ground game that produced 229 yards against the Rams. Washington's defense ranks 26th in both points allowed (25.0 per) and total yards (350.0 per), although the team's rush D is allowing just 77.5 YPG. However, Carson Wentz riddled the Washington secondary for 307 yards in the air in Week 1 and stopping Carr may be a 'bridge too far.'

The pick: The Raiders enter this contest on an impressive 11-2 ATS run over their last 13 road game (most as an underdog, though) plus QB Carr, who began his career with 10 consecutive defeats, comes in 14-3 over his last 17 starts! However, Washington head coach Jay Gruden has his own spread success lately as well, as he's 15-7 ATS his last 22 regular season games. Tough call on the side but this is Week 3's highest total (could climb even higher by game time) and like in Week 1 at Tennessee, expect an Under for the Raiders on the road. Make it an 8* play.

The set-up: The Houston Texans and the New England Patriots square off in Week 3 NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, a rematch of the Patriots' 34-16 win in last season's Divisional Round of the playoffs when Houston was without injured star J.J. Watt. He is back and healthy (although he's sack-less) plus Houston is a banged-up football team. Both teams are 1-1, losing their openers before winning in Week 2. Houston won 13-9 at Cincinnati with Deshaun Watson making his first NFL start, while Brady rebounded from his awful Week 1 performance by ripping the Saints for 447 yards and three TDs on 30 of 39 passing in the Pats' 36-20 win.

Houston: No one can say a 13-9 win over the struggling Bengals is a big deal. Deshaun Watson completed 15 of 24 passing for only 125 yards (no TDs or INTs) but led Houston in rushing with 67 yards, including a spectacular 49-yard TD scamper. RB Lamar Miller added 61 yards on the ground with his team-leading 18 carries, while DeAndre Hopkins was one of just four Texans’ receivers to catch a pass in the win, leading the team with seven receptions for 73 yards. The Texans, who finished No. 1 total defense last season (301.3 YPG) even without Watt for most of the year, recovered a fumble, made three sacks and held Cincy to just 295 yards and without a TD (three FGs). Then again, it was against the Bengals, not Brady and the Pats.

New England: There was more than a little 'chatter' after Brady was held without a TD pass in New England's opener against the Chiefs (Brady had the league's lowest passer rating after that humbling 42-27 setback to Kansas City). However, the doubters have all been quieted, after his Week 2 effort at New Orleans (see above). The Pats head into this contest averaging 31.5 PPG (5th) on 341.5 YPG through the air (No. 1 in the NFL). There could be some concern with the defense though, as after allowing an NFL-low 15.6 PPG in 2016, on 326.4 YPG (6th), the Pats are allowing 31.0 PPG (30th) on 483.0 YPG (31st).

The pick: The Patriots took it to the Texans last season, winning both meetings, including a 27-0 shutout win in Week 3 (Brady was still serving his suspension) and then that 34-16 win in the playoffs. Deshaun Watson had a solid first start but beating the sad-sack Bengals is one thing, beating the Pats of Brady and Belichick, is another. Rookie QBs are 5-15 (in the first or only meeting of a rookie season) against Belichick through his time in New England. The Foxboro numbers are even scarier, 0-8 with five TDs, 16 INTs and a 50.7 passer rating. Add to that, the fact that the Texans have never won in Foxboro (0-5) and are 1-8 overall against the Patriots, with six straight losses. I'd say lay it with the Pats but I'm troubled by New England's D so far and I like what I see from Watson. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The 1-1 Arkansas State Red Wolves of the Sun Belt will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas to take of the AAC's SMU Mustangs, who have opened their season 2-1. The Red Wolves opened with a tightly-contested 43-36 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska, before seeing their game with Miami-Fla. canceled to due to Hurricane Irma. ASU picked up its first win of 2017 by routing Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home, 48-3 last Saturday. SMU opened its season with home wins over SF Austin (58-14) and North Texas (54-32) but then could not slow down then-No. 20 TCU last Saturday in Fort Worth, losing 56-36. SMU gets Arkansas St. this Saturday and then UConn next Saturday (both at home), so the Mustangs have to be 'smelling' a 4-1 start, not bad for a program that was just 5-7 last year, plus 2-10 and 1-11 the previous two seasons.

Arkansas State: QB Justice Hansen is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 751 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. It's only two games but ASU's 385.5 YPG through the air ranks 8th-best in the nation. The defense had its problems with Nebraska (43 points allowed on 463 yards) but then the three points allowed vs. Ark-Pine Bluff, makes the defensive stat sheet look somewhat better.

SMU: QB Ben Hicks is completing just 48.4 percent of his passes but he's thrown for 729 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions. Hicks and Rafe Peavey have combined for nine touchdown passes this season and an average of 318.3 YPG passing (20th-best). Freeman (151 yards) and Jones (150 yards) lead a rushing attack which averages 155.3 YPG. All told, it has translated into 49.3 PPG or 6th-best in the nation. SMU couldn't stop TCU at all (56 points on 619 yards) and will enter this game with its defense allowing 34.0 PPG (105th).

The pick: OK, so is the Over the play? I've had great success so far in 2017 by "playing under" on more than a few of these games with extremely high totals. That's the angle once again here, as I make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: Friday night CFB on ESPN comes from Albertsons Stadium (home of the famous "Blue Turf'), as the 2-1 Boise State Broncos host the 2-1 Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs have opened the 2017 season with three consecutive home games, beating William & Mary 28-10, losing 34-17 to Indiana and then topping UConn, 38-18. The Broncos own home wins over Troy (24-13) and New Mexico (28-14), sandwiched around a 47-44 triple-OT loss at Washington State. The schools have only met once before, with Boise State crushing the Cavs 56-14 at Charlottesville in 2015. Virginia was just 4-8 taht season but fell to 2-10 last year, in Bronco Mendenhall's first season at Virginia.

Virginia: QB Kurt Benkert finished 30-of-40 for 455 yards (a school record!), three TDs and a pick in last week's Virginia win. He's completing 66.2% on the season with 976 passing yards (seven TDs and just one INT). He's accomplished all this without the help of a running game which is averaging only 106.0 YPG (111th) on 3.6 YPC. The defense comes in allowing a modest 20.7 PPG (49th) on 330.7 YPG (44th).

Boise State: The Broncos rebounded from that triple-overtime loss to Washington State with a 28-14 win over New Mexico. Senior Montell Cozart stepped into the starting QB role in place of Brett Rypien (injured?) and threw for two TDs while running for 71 yards and a third TD (he also had two passing TDs and 72 rushing yards and a TD in replacing Rypien against Wash. St.). Boise State has made the most of its 342.0 YPG (107th) by averaging 32.0 PPG (60th).

The pick: Rypien (undisclosed injury) had a streak of 25 consecutive starts snapped last week, a run that started when he threw for 321 yards and three TDs at Virginia two season ago. "He's practicing, he'll practice today and we'll see where he's at through practice," Broncos coach Bryan Harsin told reporters Monday. "He's back out there, threw some last week."Whether it's Rypien or Cozart, expect the Broncos to score here at home. However, Benkert's outstanding start makes me believe that Virginia can match Boise St. score for score. Overvalued Boise is just 11-28-1 its last 40 as a favorite and while I'm tempted to take the points with UVa, this is the Cavs first road game. I believe the Over is the better play. In fact, make it a 10*.

The set-up: The Packers opened the 2017 season with a solid 17-9 home win over the Seattle Seahawks, while the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons won their season opener 23-17 at Chicago. The two teams meet Sunday night in Atlanta, for the Falcons' first regular season game in their new home, the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Packers most recent visit to Atlanta is one the team would rather forget. Green Bay entered last season's NFC conference championship game on an eight-game winning streak but was never in it against Atlanta, falling behind by 24 points at halftime in a 44-21 blowout. "If you're thinking about last year and talking about last year, you're just wasting time and energy," Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said. The Falcons will be looking to beat Green Bay for the third time in just 11 months, as they squeezed out a 33-32 victory at home last October on a last-minute TD pass from Matt Ryan

Green Bay: The Packers may have scored just 17 points against the Seahawks in Week 1 but Aaron Rodgers threw for 311 yards (had one TD pass and one INT). RB Ty Montgomery had 93 total yards and a touchdown, while WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson combined for 16 receptions and a score last week. Defensively, the Packers held Seattle to just 225 yards of total offense on 12 FDs (3 for 12 on 3rd down), while getting three sacks and forcing a fumble. Green Bay's offense helped the defense by dominating the T.O.P. battle. 39:13-to-20:47.

Atlanta: While the Packers earned an impressive victory against a fellow NFC powerhouse last week, the Falcons needed Brooks Reed's fourth-and-goal sack to hold off the rebuilding Bears, 23-17. However, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was pleased with the ending, perhaps in no small part because of how his team couldn't hold off the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. "I wasn't disappointed that we had to go all the way to the end," he said. "Those are kind of the finishes that as a coach you hope you can put your team into some of those spots and have some resiliency there at the end. It took all day, for sure." Ryan connected on an 88-yard scoring strike to TE Austin Hooper in the fourth quarter and finished with 321 yards passing in the season opener. However, The backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman was a big disppointment, combined for only 53 yards rushing on 20 carries in Week 1.

The pick: Ryan has put up huge numbers over the past three matchups against the Packers, passing for 1,055 yards with 11 TDs against just one interception (passed for seven TDs and no picks in LY’s pair of wins over GB). WR Julio Jones torched Green Bay in the NFC title game with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores plus had an 11-catch, 259-yard monster performance against the Packers back in 2014. The again. don't expect Rodgers to take a backseat in this matchup. After all, he has a QB rating of 117.0 in seven matchups against Atlanta, throwing for 29 TD passes against two picks. These two teams have combined for at least 65 points in each of the last three meetings (including LY's NFC title game), so why should it be any different here? Make the Over an 8* play.

The pick: New England is a remarkable 42-6 SU following a loss since 2004 and plays its first road game of 2017 here, after going a perfect 8-0 on the road last season. As noted above, Brees acknowledged "a sense of urgency." Here's why. Another slow start could prove devastating to the Saints. New Orleans has failed to make the playoffs in each of the past three seasons. The Saints started 0-2 in 2014, 0-3 in 2015 and 0-3 last season. In fact, since owning an 11-5 record back on Dec. 29, 2013, the Saints have gone 1,358 days without a winning record. Can the Saints win on Sunday? New England's 'bounce-back' history says no but Brees is averaging 357.7 YPG passing in his last 15 home games. On the other side, anyone NOT think Brady will have something to prove off that embarrassment against the Chiefs? Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The 1-2 San Jose State Spartans will visit Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to take on the 2-0 Utah Utes this Saturday night. The Utes are not ranked in the AP poll but do check in at No. 24 in the coaches' poll. The Spartans own a 43-13 home win over Cal-Poly but have lost 42-22 at home to USF (season-opener) and last Saturday lost 56-0 at Texas. The Utes opened with a 37-16 home win over North Dakota and then improved to 2-0 on the season by defeating BYU 19-13 at Provo this past Saturday. Utah jumped out to a 19-6 lead with 2:35 left in the 3rd quarter and were able to survive a late BYU comeback in the 4th.

San Jose State: The Spartans opened the season with a first-year head coach in Brent Brennan and have played three QBs so far with red-shirt freshman Montel Aaron making his first start in the loss to Texas. The Spartans are averaging only 18.7 PPG (110th) on 346.7 YPG (99th). The defense was gashed for 623 total yards by Texas, including 406 yards and six TDs on the ground. San Jose St. is allowing 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th).

Utah: Tyler Huntley is the team's new QB and he's a true dual-threat. He has completed 73.5 percent of his passes for 527 yards (one TD / one INT) and is also he team’s leading rusher with 159 yards on 37 attempts (three rushing TDs). Huntley's top target is Oregon transfer Darren Carrington, who has 17 catches for 256 yards and a TD. The Utes are averaging a modest 28.0 PPG (87th) on offense but the defense has been excellent, allowing 14.5 PPG (30th) on 235.5 YPG (17th).

The pick: Utah holds a 7-1 lead in the series between these former WAC rivals, including a 34-16 road win last season in San Jose. The Utes are 23-1 in non-conference games since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. Utah hasn't had a breakout offensive effort yet but I expect one here vs. San Jose State, which was routed by Texas last week (see above) and as noted above, has allowed 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th). The Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: Illinois and South Florida are both 2-0 to open the 2017 season, although it's the lesser-known school from Tampa which is the ranked team, at No. 21 in the latest AP poll. Illinois is off a 3-9 season in Lovie Smith's first year as head coach and the Fighting Illini haven't had a winning season since their 20-14 bowl win over UCLA in 2011 allowed them to finish 7-6. Meanwhile, Willie Taggert rejuvenated the USF program, going 8-5 in 2015 and 11-2 in 2016, including an exciting 46-39 OT win over South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. Taggert used his success to land the Oregon job but Charlie Strong brings solid credentials to the program, despite his lack of success at Texas. USF had its game last week at Connecticut cancelled, due to complications with Hurricane Irma.

Illinois: Ilinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and Lovie Smith will be returning to 'the scene of the crime,' as Tampa is home to the NFL’s Buccaneers, which was his previous job before landing at Illinois. The Fighting Illini opened with an unimpressive 24-21 home win over Ball State but then as a six-point home 'dog to Western Kentucky, won 20-7. Lovie's always been known as a defensive coach and through two games, Illinois is allowing 14.0 PPG (28th) on 309.5 YPG (48th). However, the team's offense is another story. Illinois averages a woeful 258.0 YPG (123rd), due to anemic passing attack with ranks 120th, averaging 126.0 YPG. In the most important offensive stat of all, points scored, Illinois is T-100th at 22.0 PPG.

USF: Taggert may be in Oregon but he left behind QB Quinton Flowers for Charlie Strong. Flowers threw for 2,812 yards with a 24-7 ratio last year, while rushing for 1,530 yards and another 18 TDs. He's not off to a Lamar Jackson-like start in 2017 (398 passing yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT plus 137 rushing yards with just 1 TD) but he has led the Bulls to 42 and 31 points. USF ranks 44th in scoring (36.5 PPG) and 51st in total yards (443.5 YPG). The defense, which allowed 31.6 PPG in 2017, is off to an excellent start, allowing 19.5 PPG (50th) on 308.0 YPG (42nd). That said, the competition has not been all that tough.

The pick: The Fighting Illini have proven to be offensively challenged so far but USF's early defensive numbers are a bit of a mirage. As for Illinois' defense, it gets a severe test here from USF, which has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games! I believe USF will dictate this contest and with a total in the mid-50s (note: the lowest final score for an USF game in 2017 was 60 points!), the Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Dallas Cowboys will host the New York Giants to cap off a busy "Opening Day" of NFL action as the two long-time NFC East rivals meet in AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) for Sunday Night Football on NBC. Here's the big news and I'll copy it directly from reports. Federal judge Amos Mazzant granted a request by the NFL Players Association on Friday for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to prevent the implementation of the six-game suspension for Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was already eligible to play in Sunday's season opener against the New York Giants, but his suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy was to begin Monday. With the injunction granted, Elliott likely will be able to continue playing as the legal process plays out.

NY Giants: New York rebounded from three consecutive losing seasons to earn its first postseason berth since 2011, sparked by a defense that led the NFC with an average of 17.8 PPG allowed, almost 10 points per game less than it allowed in 2015 (27.6). The Giants also went from last in the entire NFL in yards allowed (420.3 per game) to 10th at 339.7 YPG. QB Eli Manning threw for 26 TDs against 16 INTs, while reaching 4,000 yards (4,027) for the sixth time in his career, despite a running game that averaged only 88.3 YPG (29th) and produced a league-worst six rushing TDs. The Giants added two pieces to the passing game by signing six-time Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and making rookie TE Evan Engram their first-round draft pick out of .OBJ is coming off huge season, catching a career-high 101 passes for 10 TDs but his status remains unknown for this contest, after a preseason injury.

Dallas: Rookies Elliott (led NFL in rushing with 1,631 yards) and Prescott (23 TDs against only four INTs for a 104.9 QB rating) led Dallas to last year's 13-3 (10-6 ATS) record. Now, both seem to be ready for a sophomore encore. the Dallas D allowed 343.9 YPG which ranked 14th but more importantly, held opponents to just 19.1 PPG, fifth-best in the NFL. However, the Cowboys will be missing three defensive linemen due to suspension on Sunday night..

The pick: The Cowboys were 7-1 at home last season but that lone loss came to the Giants 20-19 in Week 1 at Dallas, Then, New York held Dallas to 260 yards in defeating the Cowboys 10-7 in Week 14 at MetLife Stadium, completing the season sweep. Note that Elliott was held to 162 yards on the ground in two meetings against the Giants in 2016. If anyone in the league can "tough-talk" the Cowboys, it could be the Giants. New York held Dallas's powerful offense in check both times last year (to 19 and 7 points!) but also note, the Giants scored just 20 and 10 points, themselves. Make the Under an 8*

The set-up: The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders opened their 2017 season with a 28-6 loss at home to Vanderbilt and now visit the Syracuse Orange this Saturday at the Carrier Dome in search of their first win. Syracuse is home for a second straight weekend, romping 50-7 over Central Connecticut State to open its 2017 season. MTSU went 8-5 overall in 2016 (5-3 in C-USA play), including a 52-35 loss in the Hawaii Bowl to the home-standing Rainbow Warriors. Dino Babers used back-to-back bowl appearances at Bowling Green to get the head job at Syracuse but in his first season (2016), finished just 4-8 (2-6 in the ACC). The two schools are meeting for the first time as FBS members.

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders were shut down against Vanderbilt, falling behind 14-0 after the first quarter. MTSU didn't crack Vandy's end zone until the fourth quarter, well after the outcome had been decided. The offense was held to a modest 215 yards. QB Brent Stocksrtill, who threw for over 4000 yards (30-9 ratio) in 2015 and for 3233 yards in 2016 (31-7 ratio), was held to 166 yards with one TD and one INT. MTSU ran for only 49 yards on 26 attempts.

Syracuse: The Orange totally out-classed Central Connecticut State, opening up a 31-0 advantage at halftime, before coasting the rest of the way. The Orange had a dominant 586-167 advantage in total offense and racked up 34 FDs to Central Connecticut’s eight. QB Eric Dungey was outstanding, completing 28 of 36 passes for 328 yards with three TDs (he also ran 51 yards and two scores on the ground).

The pick: The Syracuse defense had no problem with Central Connecticut State but let's not forget that the Orange allowed 38.6 PPG. Yes, 10 starters return but the MTSU offense will be a much tougher test. The Blue Raiders were shut down by the Vandy defense but this team did average 39.7 PPG last season. The 'catch' here though is, the over/under number is currently in the mid-70s. MTSU struggled with Vandy's D (at home!), so while the Syracuse D is much 'softer,' this is a road game. Note that MTSU enters on a 3-19 run in road openers. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals, ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, will open the 2017 season against the Purdue Boilermakers, led by new head coach Jeff Brohm. The game will be played at at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis), the home of the Colts. It's only fitting that Brohm's first game as Purdue's head coach comes against his alma mater, where he was Louisville's starting QB for two seasons in the early 1990s.

Louisville: Bobby Petrino can coach (forget about the off-field stuff) and his Cardinals were 9-1 through 10 games last season (lone loss at Clemson by six points) and ranked No. 3, before imploding. However, a 36-10 loss at Houston was followed by an embarrassing 41-38 loss at home to Kentucky (as a nearly four-TD favorite) to end the regular season. Louisville was then man-handled by LSU, 29-9 in the Citrus Bowl. However, the team's late-season collapse didn't prevent QB Lamar Jackson from winning the Heisman (it shouldn't have). Jackson passed for 3,543 yards and 30 TDs last year while rushing for 1,571 yards and another 21 scores! Jackson lost a few key contributors but he's so talented, don't expect too much of a drop-off in 2017. That said, don't expect a second straight Heisman, either.

Purdue. Brohm come to Purdue from Western Ky, where he turned the the Hilltoppers into the nation's highest-scoring team at 45.5 PPG in 2016. David Blough is Purdue's returning starter at QB but Brohm says he likes three of his QBs and would not be afraid to use all of them with Blough struggling with a sore shoulder (he suffered a strained right shoulder during an August 12 scrimmage). To be competitive, Purdue needs to score, as its defense ranked 117th in the nation last year, allowing 38.3 PPG.

The pick: Brohm was an asistant at Western Ky when Petrino was hired as the Hilltoppers head coach. Petrino has said he is thrilled that Brohm landed a Power-5 conference coaching position. He expects his former assistant will turn around a Purdue program that has gone just 9-39 the past four seasons with only three victories in Big Ten conference play. However, that may be wishful thinking right now. Louisville has the best QB on the field (in the country?) but did lose a lot of key players, including most of the offensive line. It may take Louisville a few games to jell. The Boilermakers have lost nine of their last 10 non-home games and are a near-4 TD underdog here, so expect a loss. However, don't expect Petrino to run up the score and thisov er/under number is too high. Make Louisville/Purdue a 10* Under play.

The set-up: Two CFB superpowers open Saturday in this game at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, Texas, with No. 11 Michigan taking on No. 17 Florida. This marks the first time these two legendary programs have met in regular season, although Michigan has won all three bowl meetings, including a 41-7 beat-down of an injury-riddled Florida offense in the Citrus Bowl following the 2015 season.

Michigan: Jim Harbaugh took over Michigan in 2015, inheriting a team which was just 5-7 the previous year. His first team went 10-3, including that previously-mentioned bowl win over Florida and then last year's team again went 10-3. However, that doesn't tell the entire story. Michigan opened 9-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the nation when it lost 14-13 at Iowa. An unimpressive 20-10 win over Indiana followed and then Michigan lost a controversial double-OT at Columbus to Ohio State, 30-27. The Wolverines capped its season with a 33-32 loss to FSU in the Orange Bowl. Harbaugh's an intense coach and will be looking to quickly establish his team after last year's poor finish (three losses in its last four games). Harbaugh can easily rub people the wrong way. He refused to release his team's playing roster until Wednesday, declined to formally announce his quarterback and then went overboard by insinuating Florida coach Jim McElwain was the one playing games by initially not revealing his team's signal-caller. Harbaugh can play all the "head games" he wants but he needs to replace 10 starters off last year unit, which was one of the nation's best (allowed 14.1 PPG on just over 262 yards per). I'm still not quite sure who will be Michigan's starting QB for most of this year.

Florida: Jim McElwain begins his third season with the Gators, after going 10-4 and 9-4 in 2015 and 2016. He is dealing with two key issues in this contest. The big story is the suspension of seven players, including 2016 leading receiver and special teams stud Antonio Callaway (54 catches and 721 receiving yards with four TDs in 2016) and defensive lineman Keivonnis Davis, for misuse of school funds. The other question mark is who will start under center. RS freshman Feleipe Franks started the spring game for the Gators and played well enough to be considered for the starting job, while Luke Del Rio is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and then there’s the wild card in Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire. In the end, McElwain named Franks as the starter on Wednesday. Franks threw for 2,766 yards and 35 TDs during his senior season at Wakulla High School in Crawfordville, Fla. The defense took a big on hit, with only five starters returning from last season and don't expect the Gators to match last year's numbers of 16.8 PPG on about 293 YPG.

The pick: I'm no fan of either of Michigan's two QBs, Wilton Speight or John O’Korn and I believe Michigan's preseason ranking of No. 11 is based more on Harbuagh's notoriety. After all, Michigan had a school-record 11 players selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, meaning there are many new faces in new roles all over the field. Let me add that Florida has won 27 consecutive season openers, the best streak in the nation. The Gators will likely remember that recent Citrus Bowl loss to the Wolverines but after careful consideration I prefer to make the Over an 8* play.

The pick: For all the talk about New England's offense, the Patriots permitted a league-low 15.6 PPG in the regular season, as the Pats held six of their last seven opponents to 17 points or less. Then came the playoffs, holding Houston to 16 points and Pittsburgh to 17. However, Holding teh Falcons in check is quite another story, as this is teh best offense the NFL has seen since teh 2007 Pats. As for the Pats, Brady wants badly to be there when Goodell hands over the Lombardi Trophy and just how will Atlanta's suspect defense slow down the Pats? The Over is a 10* play.

The pick: So what we have is two playoff-tested QBs leading offenses which can score but both face defensive units at the top of their respective games. Let me note that the Steelers haven’t faced a strong offense or an elite QB since November and this elite QB (Brady), is coming off a very un-Brady-like performance. Brady was suspended for the Pats' first three home games but in the six he's played this year (including last weekend), New England has averaged 31,7 PPG. The Steelers weren't able to finish off drives against KC (settled for six FGs) but in order to stay close to New England, the Steelers will have to put the ball in the end zone. I'm not about to buck New England at home but also I'm not willing to lay this many points to a team on a nine-game winning streak. Instead, the Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: Florida lost 54-16 in the SEC championship game against Alabama, after losing 31-13 to Florida State in its regular season finale. The Gators take an 8-4 record into Monday's Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla, up against the 8-4 Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa was punished 41-14 at Penn State but then earned a "signature" 14-13 win over then-No.3 Michigan on Nov 12, beat Illinois 28-0 and had a regular season-ending 40-10 rout over then-No. 16 Nebraska.

The set-up: The 10-5 Atlanta Falcons have clinched the NFC South title but can still claim the No. 2 NFC seed and earn a week off when they host the 7-8 New Orleans Saints on Sunday in the final regular-season game at the Georgia Dome. As for the Saints, they are just looking to avoid a third straight 7-9 season. 

The set-up: As good as the LSU defense is, I do not expect them to contain Jackson and Louisville (remember, Kentucky scored 41 points on 581 yards!) plus LSU won't miss Leonard Fournette all that much with Derrius Guice filling in (he has 1,249 yards and 14 TDs at 8.0 YPC). The Louisville defense is not in the class of Alabama's or Florida's, the two teams which beat LSU under Orgeron. In LSU's five wins after Miles was fired, the Tigers averaged 43.4 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play in this one.

The set-up: North Carolina went 8-4 and heads to El Paso for a Sun Bowl meeting with 9-3 Stanford.The biggest storyline heading into the game was Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey announcing on Twitter that he will sit out the Sun Bowl to focus on his NFL draft preparation (will this be trend). Stanford comes in with momentum (on a five-game winning streak) while North Carolina lost two of its final three, beating only the The Citadel.

North Carolina: Junior QB Mitch Trubisky is an emerging NFL prospect who threw for 3,468 yards while completing 68.9% with 28 TD passes and just four INTs. The running game is below average, gaining 148.2 YPG (99th). Overall, North Carolina averages 33.1 PPG (40th) and its defense holds opponents to 24.9 PPG (45th). The season was a roller-coaster, with wins over Florida State, Miami and Pittsburgh but it ended with disappointing late-season losses to Duke and North Carolina State. “We weren’t able to overcome all the emotions we created for ourselves,” coach Larry Fedora told reporters. “There were a few games down the stretch that we didn’t play up to our capability. We didn’t make the ordinary plays that we needed to make.

The pick:North Carolina has really been shown up in its last two bowl appearnces, losing 40-21 to Rutgers in 2014 and 49-38 to Baylor, last year. Carolina has not ben physical enough and it showed signs of wearing down defensively in losing to both Duke (allowed 467 yards) and NC St (492 yards in two of its last three games (41-7 win over The Citadel hardly counts). Stanford loves to play smashmouth FB and Chyrst has brought another dimension to the offense with his solid play. Led by Trubisky, the North Carolina offense will give Stanford's D all it can handle. The Over is an 8* play.

The pick: USF is obviously the more explosive team and likely the way better team. However, the coaching transition for USF may not be quite as smooth as other situations, as several assistants are on their way to Oregon and those that remain are unlikely to be kept on by Charlie Strong. That means the awkwardness of some of the guys in charge of game planning having are also shopping their resumes and thinking about other matters at this rather busy hiring/firing period. South Carolina has notable wins over Tennessee (24-21), Vanderbilt (13-10) and Missouri (31-21) plus also defeated East Carolina of the AAC, 20-15. The Gamecocks are bowl-eligible for the 12th time in 13 seasons and have won their last four bowl games and only Marshall’s five-game winning streak in bowl games is longer. Look for teh South Carolina defense to keep the Gamecocks in this one making the Under a 10* play.

The pick: After losing to Air Force for the third consecutive year and failing to make it into the conference championship for the second straight season, the Broncos are looking at a potential bowl win over a Big 12 team. "We're trying to finish this season the right way and take everything we've learned and apply it," coach Bryan Harsin told reporters. "And go out there and be a much better football team than we were in the last game."  However, one wonders if a win over a Baylor team in a total collapse will mean much? Also, one has to wonder if a vote were to be taken now, just how many Baylor players and coaches would say yes to continuing this VERY awkward campaign? The Under is a 10* play.

The pick: It's already been noted that Detroit has a poor running game and how will it get going against Dallas' No. 1 rush D, allowing 80.9 YPG? Stafford is not 100% and the Lions enter having averaged just 17.5 PPG their last four and now face a Dallas D allowing only 18.4 PPG (4th) on the season. Led by Elliott, Dallas ranks 2nd in rushing at 154.5 YPG and likely will play relatively conservatively. The Under is a 10* play.

The pick: It would be easy to say "under" in this one but "not so fast!" Both teams showed late-season success against notable opponents and it seems to have perked up the motivation for Vanderbilt and North Carolina State going into this game. With Vandy in particular, the Commodores averaged 13.2 points in going 1-5 in their first six SEC games but totaled 83 points in the final two games. RB Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five TDs on 41 carries while QB Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee and threw four TD passes in the last two games.This is one of teh lowe over/under numbers of all the bowls and the Over is a 10* play.

complete analysis by Saturday

The pick: These are two good defensive teams but the reasonably low over/number on the game makes the over very tempting. Ohio has not had much success in bowl games under Solich and in the team's last five bowl appearances, those finals have averaged 58.4 PPG. Troy QB Bandon Silvers can spread the field and find open receivers against a defense that did not see this style much. The Over is a 10* play.