The set-up: As good as the LSU defense is, I do not expect them to contain Jackson and Louisville (remember, Kentucky scored 41 points on 581 yards!) plus LSU won't miss Leonard Fournette all that much with Derrius Guice filling in (he has 1,249 yards and 14 TDs at 8.0 YPC). The Louisville defense is not in the class of Alabama's or Florida's, the two teams which beat LSU under Orgeron. In LSU's five wins after Miles was fired, the Tigers averaged 43.4 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play in this one.

The set-up: North Carolina went 8-4 and heads to El Paso for a Sun Bowl meeting with 9-3 Stanford.The biggest storyline heading into the game was Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey announcing on Twitter that he will sit out the Sun Bowl to focus on his NFL draft preparation (will this be trend). Stanford comes in with momentum (on a five-game winning streak) while North Carolina lost two of its final three, beating only the The Citadel.

North Carolina: Junior QB Mitch Trubisky is an emerging NFL prospect who threw for 3,468 yards while completing 68.9% with 28 TD passes and just four INTs. The running game is below average, gaining 148.2 YPG (99th). Overall, North Carolina averages 33.1 PPG (40th) and its defense holds opponents to 24.9 PPG (45th). The season was a roller-coaster, with wins over Florida State, Miami and Pittsburgh but it ended with disappointing late-season losses to Duke and North Carolina State. “We weren’t able to overcome all the emotions we created for ourselves,” coach Larry Fedora told reporters. “There were a few games down the stretch that we didn’t play up to our capability. We didn’t make the ordinary plays that we needed to make.

The pick:North Carolina has really been shown up in its last two bowl appearnces, losing 40-21 to Rutgers in 2014 and 49-38 to Baylor, last year. Carolina has not ben physical enough and it showed signs of wearing down defensively in losing to both Duke (allowed 467 yards) and NC St (492 yards in two of its last three games (41-7 win over The Citadel hardly counts). Stanford loves to play smashmouth FB and Chyrst has brought another dimension to the offense with his solid play. Led by Trubisky, the North Carolina offense will give Stanford's D all it can handle. The Over is an 8* play.

The pick: USF is obviously the more explosive team and likely the way better team. However, the coaching transition for USF may not be quite as smooth as other situations, as several assistants are on their way to Oregon and those that remain are unlikely to be kept on by Charlie Strong. That means the awkwardness of some of the guys in charge of game planning having are also shopping their resumes and thinking about other matters at this rather busy hiring/firing period. South Carolina has notable wins over Tennessee (24-21), Vanderbilt (13-10) and Missouri (31-21) plus also defeated East Carolina of the AAC, 20-15. The Gamecocks are bowl-eligible for the 12th time in 13 seasons and have won their last four bowl games and only Marshall’s five-game winning streak in bowl games is longer. Look for teh South Carolina defense to keep the Gamecocks in this one making the Under a 10* play.

The pick: After losing to Air Force for the third consecutive year and failing to make it into the conference championship for the second straight season, the Broncos are looking at a potential bowl win over a Big 12 team. "We're trying to finish this season the right way and take everything we've learned and apply it," coach Bryan Harsin told reporters. "And go out there and be a much better football team than we were in the last game."  However, one wonders if a win over a Baylor team in a total collapse will mean much? Also, one has to wonder if a vote were to be taken now, just how many Baylor players and coaches would say yes to continuing this VERY awkward campaign? The Under is a 10* play.

The pick: It would be easy to say "under" in this one but "not so fast!" Both teams showed late-season success against notable opponents and it seems to have perked up the motivation for Vanderbilt and North Carolina State going into this game. With Vandy in particular, the Commodores averaged 13.2 points in going 1-5 in their first six SEC games but totaled 83 points in the final two games. RB Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five TDs on 41 carries while QB Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee and threw four TD passes in the last two games.This is one of teh lowe over/under numbers of all the bowls and the Over is a 10* play.

The pick: These are two good defensive teams but the reasonably low over/number on the game makes the over very tempting. Ohio has not had much success in bowl games under Solich and in the team's last five bowl appearances, those finals have averaged 58.4 PPG. Troy QB Bandon Silvers can spread the field and find open receivers against a defense that did not see this style much. The Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: San Diego State closed last season on a 10-game winning streak and sat at 9-1 (6-0 in MWC play) when it visited Laramie to play Wyoming back on Nov. 19. The Aztecs had won 19 of 20 games entering that contest and after a back and forth contest, scored on the game’s final play of regulation. SDSU chose to go for two and the win but lost 34-33. Then came an embarrassing 63-31 home los to Colorado St. but the Aztecs get a chance for redemption, as well as a second straight MWC title, Saturday night back in Laramie. Wyoming comes in 8-4 in head coach Craig Bohl’s third season. The Cowboys went 4-8 in his first season and a woeful 2-10 last year, so it’s been quite a turnaround in 2016! San Diego State:  The Aztecs have a mediocre QB in Christian Chapman, who has 19 TDs and just five INTs but also has just 1,781 passing yards. However, RB Donnel Pumphrey has 1,908 yards this year (6.3 YPC and 15 TDs) and with two games left in his career, should wind up No. 3 on the all-time NCAA career rushing list, behind only Tony Dorsett and Ron Dayne. Pumphrey’s backfield partnet, Penny, has 878 rushing yards on 8.0 YPC with nine TDs. SDSU averages 275.9 YPG on the ground to rank 7th. The defense let the Aztecs down in it’s the season’s last two games (34 points to Wyoming and 63 to Colorado St.) but the unit checks in 19th in points allowed (20.8 per)  on 318.9 YPG (11th). Wyoming: The Cowboys thought they would have to beat the Lobos last weekend but ‘backed in’ to the division title when Boise St. lost 27-20 at Air Force on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Therefore, Wyoming’s 56-35 loss at New Mexico last Saturday didn’t cost them an appearance in this game. QB Allen threw for 2,738 yards (23 TDs and 11 INTs) this season and led by RB Brian Hill (1,674 yards on 5.5 YPC with 21 TDs), the running game averages 218.9 YPG. However, while the offense scores 38.2 PPG, the defense pretty much gives it all back, allowing 35.5 PPG. The pick: San Diego State won last year’s MWC championship on its home field but doing so here in Laramie figures to be another story. After all, Wyoming is 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS and still comes in as about a TD underdog. I believe SDSU is the better team and both teams rely on their running games and I’m looking for a much lower scoring game than we saw on this field back on Nov. 19th. The Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: Washington (11-1) is No. 4 in the current CFP rankings but knows a win over No. 9 Colorado (10-2) does bot guarantee the Huskies a spot in CFB’s ‘Final 4.’ There was a lot of talk last Tuesday (when the rankings were released) about Washington’s pathetic non-conference strength of schedule, with wins over Rutgers (2-10 overall and 0-9 in the Big Ten), Idaho of the Sun Belt (7-4 overall) and over Portland St, an FCS school. The Buffs have zero ‘Final 4 ‘ aspirations but have to be thrilled with the team's worst to first in the Pac-12 South turnaround in 2016. Colorado: Mike MacIntyre’s Colorado team set a conference record with its seven-game conference improvement, going from 1-8 in 2015 to 8-1 in 2016. MacIntyre was an easy choice for Pac-12 coach of the year, as the Buffaloes had gone 2-25 in Pac-12 games in his first three seasons at Boulder. QB Sefo Liufau missed three starts due to a midseason ankle injury but still ranks fourth in Pac-12 total offense (263.3 YPG), completing 64.6 percent with 11 TDs and 3 INTs. RB Phillip Lindsay (1,136 yards / 5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) leads a rushing attack averaging 201.1 YPG (45th). Colorado is averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) but the big improvement has been on defense, as Colorado ranks 12th in total yards allowed (323.0 per) and 13th in points allowed (18.8 per). In McIntyre’s first three seasons, the Buffs had allowed 38.3, 39.0 and 27.5 PPG on about 450.0 YPG! Washington: Chris Petersen’s third season at Washington has been the ‘charm!’ Sophomore QB Jake Browning is third in the country in passing TDs (40), fourth in passing efficiency (181.6 rating) and ninth in yards per completion (14.78). He’s completed 65.0% with just seven INTs. He’s complemented nicely by a rushing attack averaging 205.4 YPG (40th) on 5.5 YPC, led by RB Myles Gaskin (1,180 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs). Washington is the conference’s highest-scoring team at 44.8 PPG (3rd in the nation) and has scored 31 or more in all of its 11 wins. Four Huskies appear on the All-Pac-12 first-team defense, which allows 17.8 PPG (11th) on 328.9 YPG (17th). The pick: The Buffaloes can match the Huskies in the trenches but Washington owns fairly significant edges in speed and depth. Washington know how to “make things happen” as well as any team in the nation (save Alabama), with 21 offensive TDs of either 40-plus yards or TDs scored by their defense or special teams. Washington has its sights on a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff and may just get one. However, what I like even better here, is a high scoring game. The Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: UCLA opened the season ranked 16th in the AP’s preseason poll but now wrap up the year with this game at Cal, just 4-7 overall, including 2-6 in Pac 12 play. Sonny Dykes’ first two seasons at Cal resulted in 1-11 and 5-7 records but led by Jared Goff, who would become the No.1 overall pick in the NFL’s 2016 draft, the Golden Bears finished 8-5  in 2016 after a 55-36 win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. This season was expected to be a rebuilding year but after a 52-49 double-OT win over Oregon on Oct 21, the Bears stood at 4-3. However, Cal enters this season finale on a four-game slide and like UCLA, is 4-7, including 2-6 in Pac 12 action. UCLA: The Bruins opened the season with a young hot-shot QB in sophomore Josh Rosen but he’s missed five games because of a shoulder injury and has been done for quite some time now. Fifth-year senior Mike Fafaul will be starting his fifth game in place of Rosen on Saturday. Head coach Jim Mora has praised Fafual saying, "He played behind Brett (Hundley), and then Josh got the job, and he has hung in there. “He's everything that you want in a quarterback in terms of studying the game and it being serious to him. It's just great." Still, Fafual has just 11 TD passes (five came in one game) and 10 INTs on the season and gets no help from a UCLA running game which ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams (84.3 YPG on 2.9 YPC). California: Goff may have been the NFL’s No. 1 pick but don’t blame QB Davis Webb (a Texas Tech transfer) for Cal’s woes in 2016. He’s completed 61.2% for 3,994 yards (Cal ranks 3rd in passing at 364.1 YPG) with 35 TDs and 12 INTs. Cal’s offense ranks 22nd in scoring (37.2 PPG) but its defense allows 45.5 PPG (128th out of 128 FBS schools), and 541.8 YPG to rank 127th! The pick:  The urge here is to go over but note that UCLA has been a huge underachiever all season on the road, going 1-4 SU and averaging a poor 18.4 PPG. UCLA likely left all it had in the tank on the season in the Rose Bowl last Saturday, in losing 36-14 to USC. With this high total, the under is a 10* play. 

Then set-up: Boston College may be just 1-6 in ACC play it’s 5-6 overall, meaning a win here at Wake Forest would give the team a 6-6 record, making them bowl-eligible. That would be quite a turnaround after the Eagles were just 3-9 in 2015. Wake Forest already owns six wins, coming in at 6-5 overall, including 3-4 in ACC play. "We're at six wins and we're going to try like crazy to get seven," Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson told the media. "We still have a lot to play for and I'm really proud of our guys." Boston College: The Eagles broke a 12-game ACC losing streak with a 21-14 win at NC State back on Oct 29 but that’s the team's lone ACC win here in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons, combined. Boston College had hoped QB Patrick Towles, a Kentucky transfer, would spark an offense which averaged just 17.2 PPG but that hasn’t been the case. Towles has completed just 51.8% for 1,505 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. The running game averages 151.6 YPG (95th) on 3.5 YPC, as the team's leading rusher is Hilliman, who has only 455 yards (3.1 YPC). BC comes into this game averaging 19.3 PPG (123rd) on 299.3 YPG, which ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams. BC’s defense ranks 10th in total defense (312.4 YPG) but the Eagles are allowing 25.5 PPG (49th). Wake Forest: When the Demon Deacons have run the ball well they’ve won. When they have not, they’ve lost. RBs Colburn (528 yards) and Carney (475 yards) join QB Wolford (454 yards) combine eto run for 147.3 YPG (101st) on just 3.6 YPC. However, Wake Forest has averaged 202 rushing yards in the team’s six wins, compared to just 80.8 YPG on the ground in its five losses. Boston College allows just 102.6 YPG on the ground (7th-best), so Wolford may have]e to got to the air, although his numbers are no better than Towles, completing 56.7% for 1,454 with five TDs and seven INTs. Wake’s defense allows more yards than BC’s (388.5 YPG to rank 51st) but gives up fewer points at 22.3 PPG, to rank 31st. The pick: Only two of the last 13 meetings between BC and Wake have been decided by more than 10 points, with BC averaging 21.8 points and Wake 20.8 PPG. This “super-low” total makes the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: LSU opened the season No. 5 in the AP’s preseason poll but a season-opening 16-14 loss to Wisconsin in Green Bay pretty much set the tone for the season. The Tigers fired Les Miles after a 2-2 start and while LSU won the first three games under interim head coach Ed Orgeron (averaging 41.7 PPG), the Tigers have lost two of their last three, getting shut out 10-0 by Alabama and losing 16-10 to Florida (both losses came at home!). Texas A&M began the year unranked but upset No. 15 UCLA 31-24 in OT in its season opener. When the first CFP rankings were released back on Nov. 1, the 7-1 Aggies were No. 4. However, at 8-3, Texas A&M was not in the latest CFP rankings (released Nov. 22). LSU: Orgeron was expected to spark the Tigers offense and as noted above, LSU averaged 41.7 PPG in his first three games. However, in getting shut out at home by Alabama, the Tigers were held to just 125 total yards and six FDs. Then last Saturday vs. Florida, Orgeron watched his team score just one TD in five goal-to-go chances on Saturday, including a goal-line stand that clinched the setback. "We shot ourselves in the foot and had a lot of opportunities in the red zone," Orgeron told reporters. "We didn't convert any points. Two turnovers were really costly in the football game. Guys fought the whole way, gave us a chance to win the football game." Now star RB Leonard Fournette, who was hobbled by an ankle injury that has plagued him on and off all season and was limited to 40 yards on 12 carries Saturday, is expected to miss Thursday night. Texas A&M: The Aggies are still a possibility for a Sugar Bowl berth, which would go to the second-highest ranked team from the SEC. A&M would finish in second place in the SEC West with a win on Thursday and an Auburn loss against Alabama. Texas A&M lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a shoulder injury in the loss to Mississippi on Nov. 12 and is still getting used to Jake Hubenak at QB. He threw for 248 yards and a touchdown in a 23-10 win against UTSA and has completed 58 of 97 this year for 598 yards with six TDs and two INTs. He will be helped by a running game averaging 247.5 YPG on 5.7 YPC. RB Williams (956 yards on 7.0 YPC) will go over 1,000 yards for the season in this one. The pick: LSU has nothing to play for, other than the Tigers could be playing for the well-liked Ed Orgeron's job. Texas A&M has averaged 35.1 PPG on the season but its defense has allowed 33.8 PPG over its last four SEC games. The Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: It’s been a roller coaster ride for Arkansas its last four games, beating Ole Miss 34-30, losing 56-3 to Auburn, beating Florida 31-10 and then losing 38-10 last week to LSU. The 6-4 Razorback now visit Starkville to take on Mississippi St, a team which beat them last year 51-50, a game in which the teams combined for over 1,100 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs are just 4-6 in 2016 though, after losing 51-3 last Saturday to No. 1 Alabama. Arkansas: QB Austin Allen has thrown for 2,501 yards and 20 TDs (against 10 INTs) and was the SEC’s pass efficiency leader at midseason but he’s been inconsistent since suffering a knee injury in the Auburn loss back on Oct. 22. He’s completing 60.5% on the season but just 54.0% over his last three games, throwing just two TD passes with four INTs (he had 18 TD passes through seven games!). RB Rawleigh Williams III surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark last week for the Razorbacks (1,004 yards on 5.2 YPC) but he had just 22 yards against Auburn and 49 last week vs. LSU. Speaking of running the football, the Arkansas defense has plenty of soul-searching to do after allowing LSU to run for 390 yards last Saturday, on 6.3 YPC! Mississippi State: The Bulldogs miss Dak Prescott, who someone told me is doing just fine with the Dallas Cowboys. Sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald is a dual-threat like Dak and already has 854 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC with eight TDs. However, while Dak completed 66.2% with a 29-5 ratio, Fitzgerald is completing only 53.3% with a 16-10 ratio. The Bulldogs average 214.2 YPG on the ground (30th) but neither Fitzgerald nor the running game was efficient against the Crimson Tide, failing to score a TD in nine trips into Alabama territory. The defense allows 31.9 PPG (92nd) on 434.6 YPG (84th). The pick: All four of Arkansas’ losses have come to ranked teams, No. 16 Auburn, No. 1 Alabama, No. 22 Texas A&M and No. 14 LSU. As for Miss. St, the Bulldogs are playing their first unranked opponent since Oct. 1, when they defeated Alcorn State (an FCS school). Miss. St. has won four straight meetings with the last three decided by seven points or less. Another close game is expected but unlike last year’s shootout, the Under is a 10* play in this one. 

The set-up: UNLV is 3-6 and heading for another season without going ‘bowling,’ something Las Vegas fans have grown accustomed to. The Rebels have been to just four bowls in school history, including two since 2000. However, UNLV did Boise State a YUGE favor last Saturday, with a 69-66 triple-overtime home victory over Wyoming. That result revived the Broncos’ chances in the Mountain Division of the MWC conference. The 9-1 Broncos, who are currently the highest ranked Group of 5 school in the CFP rankings (at No. 20) but they are far from a lock to play in the MWC title game, tied with New Mexico and Wyoming at 5-1 UNLV: UNLV rolled up 653 yards of total offense, the second most in school history, and just pummeled the Cowboys rush D, running for 401 yards on 6.3 YPC.  Junior QB Kurt Palandech made his first start of the season and excelled by accounting for four TDs (three passing, one rushing) while establishing career highs for passing yardage (252) and rushing yardage (157). He will get the start again here but UNLV’s lone pass-catching threat, Devonte Boyd (45 receptions for 746 yards and four TDs), was lost for the season with a broken left arm. Nobody else on the Rebels has more than 13 receptions or reached the modest total of 200 receiving yards. Boise State: The Broncos have a quality QB in Brett Rypien (65.0% / 2,916 yards / 22-6 ratio) and a superb RB in Jeremy McNichols, who has run for 1.369 yards (fifth nationally) on 5.7 YPC with 18 TDs. He’s added 31 catches on 13.8 YPC with four TDs.His 22 TDs are tops in the nation. Unlike UNLV, Boise State owns two quality WRs in senior Thomas Sperbeck (62 catches for 1,023 yards) and junior Cedrick Wilson (44 for 827), who have both own nine TD receptions. The pick: Typically, a team traveling back from Hawaii is at a disadvantage (like Boise State is here) but that’s negated by UNLV coming off its stunning triple-OT win a vs. Wyoming, which was the third-highest scoring game in FBS history. UNLV intends to run the ball a lot and that could pose a problem for the Broncos who allowed a whopping 382 to New Mexico earlier this season. Also, the Broncos have just seven takeaways (five interceptions, two fumbles) on the season, tied for 126th nationally out of 128 FBS schools. That means the Rebels should score and no way Boise State doesn’t get its fair share against a UNLV defense that allowed this Boise State team 55 points on 705 yards last year in Las Vegas. Here on that famous “Blue Turf,” the Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: Toledo is 8-2 overall (5-1 in the MAC West) as it gets set to host Ball State (4-6 overall, 1-5 in the MAC West) on Wednesday night at the Glass Bowl. Toledo football has maintained a winning standard for seven seasons (from 2010 through the current season of 2016) through three head-coaching changes and the departure of countless players. The Rockets have won nine games three times since 2010 and 10 games once but Toledo has not won a MAC championship since 2004. In fact, Toledo has yet to even reach a MAC title game since that 2004 championship year. Ball State won 12 games back in 2008 and 10 games in 2013 but needs to win its final two games of 2016 to avoid a third consecutive losing season (Cardinals were 5-7 and 3-9 the last two seasons). Ball State: The Cardinals visit Toledo off a heartbreaking loss a week ago Tuesday at home to Eastern Michigan. Ball State jumped out to a 21-3 lead early, rallied after falling behind 40-28, and ultimately landed on the wrong side of a 48-41 final. Eastern Michigan reached bowl eligibility for the first time in nearly two decades by virtue of the win, while Ball State needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible after a two-year drought. The Cardinals' best bet to stay competitive with Toledo is to establish RB James Gilbert (1,196 yards on 5.4 YPC with 12 TDs) early, then throw in some low-risk passes to keep the Toledo defense honest. However, Gilbert suffered a leg injury against the Eagles and is listed as questionable. QB Neal runs well (359 rushing yards and 7 TDs) but is a mediocre thrower at best, passing for a modest 2,093 yards (Ball St. ranks 70th in passing yards) with 10 TDs and 11 INTs.  The Ball State defense allows 30.3 PPG (78th). Toledo: The Rockets own excellent offensive balance, as QB Logan Woodside completes 70.8% for 3,328 yards with 37 TDs and just six INTs. Those numbers rank among CFBs best. He's averaging more passing yards per game than Baker Mayfield (Okla.), has more TD passes than Patrick Mahomes (TT), and has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Luke Falk (Wash. St.). RB Kareem Hunt has 1,048 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC with 7 TDs. The Toledo defense has done a nice job this year, holding opponents to 22.9 PPG (34th). The pick: Toledo’s only losses have come on a last second FG by BYU in a 55-53 defeat and a five-point home loss to Ohio (the Bobcats’ first win in Toledo since 1967!). Toledo needs to win here so when it travels to MAC West-leading and No. 14-ranked Western Michigan the day after Thanksgiving, the winner of that contest would be off to the MAC championship game. However, Ball State may not be a pushover, as five of Ball State’s six losses have been decided by 10 points or less. Toledo may play this “close to the vest” and my play is a 10* on the Under.

The set-up: The Fighting Irish played Texas in Austin to open their 2016 season back on Labor Day night. Notre Dame was No. 10 in the AP’s preseason poll and lost to unranked Texas (coming off a 5-7 season) in a thrilling 50-47 double-OT contest. How the mighty have fallen, as Note Dame enters this game 3-6 and would need to win out over its final three games just to become bowl-eligible. Notre Dame comes into this contest against Army at San Antonio off a 28-27 loss last Saturday to Navy in Jacksonville. It marked just Notre Dame’s fourth loss to Navy since 1963. Army comes in 5-4 and the Black Knights are one away from that coveted sixth win and academy’s first bowl berth since 2010 (previous one before that was 1996!). Notre Dame: Brian Kelly was sitting atop the college football world back in 2012 when he led the Irish to a 12-0 regular season and a berth in the BCS championship game against Alabama. ND was outclassed in that contest (lost 42-14 and it wasn’t as close as the final score) and while the school has been bowling each of the last three years since that title-game loss, the school’s three-year run from 2013 through 2015 of 27-12 is good but hardly special. 2016 has been a frustrating season, but QB Kizer is completing 60.4% for 2,261 yards with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. He’s completed 67.7% the last two games, throwing five TDs without an INT. Notre Dame’s defense is hardly a vintage group, allowing 27.7 PPG (67th). Army:  Head coach Jeff Monken has done a great job of bringing this program back to prominence, as army will go ‘bowling’ with one more win. Army struggled to get its vaunted rushing attack going in a 31-12 loss to Air Force last Saturday but the Black Knights still rank third in the nation, averaging 320.3 YPG on the ground. Despite often being out-sized, Army’s defense ranks 13th in points allowed (18.1 per) on 288.1 YPG (5th). The pick: The Fighting Irish have claimed 14 straight meetings with Army but the schools have played just twice since 1998 and last met in 2010. Army's last win in the series was a 14-2 triumph at Notre Dame back in 1958! Notre Dame didn’t come close to stopping Navy’s option-offense last week, allowing 320 rushing yards, which is the same amount of rushing yards Army average per game. I believe Army can trade scores with Notre Dame and the Black Knights will have to if they expect to win, as Kizer and Notre Dame should score quite a bit in this one. The Over  is a 10* play. 

The set-up: Florida State lost 37-34 to Clemson on October 29th, falling to 5-3 on the season and to No. 19 in the AP poll. FSU then found themselves down 20-10 at NC State in the late third quarter last Saturday. A loss would likely mean the Seminoles would drop out of the next AP poll, ending a streak of 79 consecutive weeks in the rankings. A second straight defeat would also mark the first time FSU had lost back-to-back games since the 2011 season, a span of 71 games! However, Dalvin Cook ran for a 10-yard TD on the final pay of the third quarter and the Seminoles added a 4th-quarter TD as well, to pull out a 24-20. Streaks intact! 6-3 FSU (No. 20 in the AP poll and 18 in the CFP rankings) hosts 4-5 (1-5 in ACC play) Boston College on Friday night. Boston College: The Eagles kept finding ways to lose conference games, following up last year's 0-for-the-ACC (eight games) with four league losses this year. Boston College finally ended its 12-game ACC slide with a 21-14 win at NC State on October 29 but the Eagles could not follow up their first ACC victory versus Louisville, allowing Heisman Trophy-favorite Lamar Jackson 416 total yards and seven TDs accounted for in a 52-7 loss. BC’s offense is a work in progress, as QB Patrick Towles has completed only 51 percent of his passes for 1,293 yards (8 TDs / 6 INTs) and the Eagles rank only 88th in the nation in rushing yards  (157.6 YPG) on 3.7 YPC. However, despite the Louisville blowout, the defense is giving up 26.2 PPG(57th) on 322.1 YPG (14th), including only 106.1 YPG on the ground, which ranks 8th. Florida State: Freshman QB Deondre Francois has been sacked 26 times but overall, has had a pretty solid season. He’s completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,492 yards and while he’s thrown a modest 12 TD passes, he has just four INTs on 295 attempts, an excellent ratio for a first-year starter. The rushing attack ranks 49th with 190.9 YPG (4.8 YPC), led by Dalvin Cook’s 1,134 yards (5.8 YPC) with 12 TDs. The FSU defense is hardly a vintage unit, allowing 28.8  PPG (72nd) on 411.1 YPG (73rd).Cook owns 3,833 yards through three seasons and the junior is now 127 yards away from breaking Warrick Dunn’s record of career rushing yards (it’s a 20-year-old). Cook averages 126 YPG, so look out! The set-up: The Seminoles will be hosting a Friday game in Tallahassee for only the second time ever, and for the first since 1957. As noted above, this year’s FSU defense is not a vintage group (for reference, the team’s 2013 unit sent all 11 starters to the NFL!). I realize that BC's offense ranks 122nd in scoring (19.4 PPG) and 126th on 312.1 YPG but I see them putting up some points here. Cook has struggled against Boston College's defense the last two seasons but he'll be highly motivated with Dunn's record easilly attainable. Deondre Francois may not be Lamar Jackson but note that FSU is averaging 36.6 PPG this season in Tallahassee and I expect them to exceed that here, making the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Bowling Green Falcons have dominated the MAC East under head coaches Dave Clawson and Dino Babers the last few years, reaching three consecutive MAC championship games. However, there will certainly not be a fourth straight title game appearance for Bowling Green, as the 1-8 Falcons have taken a monster step back under first-year head coach Mike Jinks. They are winless both in conference play and in fact, against all FBS competition, with the school’s lone win coming 27-26 over North Dakota back on Sept. 10. Akron is 5-5 overall and 3-3 in MAC East play. One more win earns the team bowl eligibility, which is no small feat. After all, last season’s 23-21 bowl win over Utah St. was the school’s first-ever bowl victory in just the school’s second-ever bowl appearance. Bowling Green: Falcons freshman QB James Morgan has a bright future ahead of him, as 13 of his 14 TD passes on the season have come in the team’s last four games, where he’s averaged 300.3 YPG through the air. He’ll face an Akron defense which is highly vulnerable, allowing 35.6 PPG (110th) on 497.0 YPG (121st). However, BG’s defense is a mess, ranking last (128th) among all FBS schools in allowing 45.1 PPG on 505.3 YPG (122nd). If things weren’t already bad enough for Bowling Green, the Falcons have committed 26 turnovers, second-most behind Kansas’ 29. QBs James Morgan and James Knapke have combined for 22 interceptions, the most of any one team in the nation. Akron: QB Thomas Woodson has thrown for nearly 2,076 yards, despite missing two games in MAC play with a shoulder injury. Prior to the injury, Woodson had three games with at least three TD passes but he's yet to break that mark since returning. He’ll go up against the sieve-like Bowling Green defense, which is allowing 278.2 YPG (122nd) through the air. The Zips’ MAC East title hopes are not yet ‘dead’ but back-to-back losses have put Akron in a tough spot. Making matters worse, the Zips weren’t all that competitive in either contest. Buffalo hadn’t won a conference game until beating Akron, 41-20 on Oct. 27, and Toledo outscored the Zips 45-7 over the final three quarters in a blowout 48-17 victory Nov. 2. However, the Zips can still win the East with some help. Akron must win here and would then need an Ohio U loss on Nov. 15th at Central Michigan. That would set up a showdown with the Bobcats in the regular-season finale on Nov. 22nd at home. The pick: This seems like it should (will?) be a high scoring game and I wouldn’t argue against that but just how high scoring is the question? Akron can’t control what happens with Ohio next week but a win here not only gets them bowl-eligible (again, a big deal) but keeps them alive for a shot at the MAC title game, at least until the result comes in from the Ohio U/Central Michigan contest in Mount Pleasant on Nov 15th.  This over/under number is YUGE and the Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: From 2009 through 2014., UCF made five bowl appearances in six years but coming off a 9-4 season in 2014, went 0-12 in 2015.  Meanwhile, after ending a bowl drought which extended back to 2012 by going to the New Orleans Bowl in 2013, Tulane regressed to past form by going 3-9 in both 2014 and 2015. Both schools made coaching changes prior to the 2016 season and when the two teams meet in Orlando on Saturday (a game rescheduled from Oct. 7 due to Hurricane Matthew), Tulane checks in at 3-5 overall (although 0-4 in AAC play) and UCF brings a 4-4 overall record into the game (2-2 in AAC play). Tulane:  Willie Fritz was the head coach at University of Central Missouri from 1997 to 2009, before moving to Sam Houston State University from 2010 to 2013, where he led the Bearkats to back-to-back national title game appearances in 2011 and 2012. He was the head coach at Georgia Southern University in 2014 and 2015, going 9-3 and 8-4. Last year’s team earned a bowl berth but he accepted the Tulane job before coaching the team in it. He’s quickly turned the Tulane offense around, as after averaging 16.0 and 19.7 PPG in 2014 and 2015, the Green Wave have averaged 28.4 PPG in 2016, despite being held to 14 points or less in three of eight games. Fritz has yet to win a conference game but it’s coming. UCF: Scott Frost was given his first-ever head coaching job at UCF prior to the 2016 season and ended the Knight’s 13-game losing streak with a 38-0 season-opening home win over South Carolina State. The Knights take the field 4-4 (2-2 in AAC play) and like Tulane, have turned things around offensively, averaging 31.1 PPG, after averaging only 13.9 PPG in 2015’s winless season. The Knights are kicking off a three-game homestand with this game on Saturday and would probably need to win all three to keep their division title hopes alive going into the finale at USF. That’s an unlikely scenario but reaching six wins to become bowl-eligible is reasonably attainable. The pick: UCF has failed to score more than 25 points in any of its last three games (has scored 24 twice and 25 once) but in its two previous contests, had rolled to 53- and 47-point efforts. Tulane visit Orlando having allowed 85 points in consecutive losses but has also scored 58 points in those two games. By game’s end, this over/under number should be in “the rearview mirror.” The Over is a 10* play.  

The set-up: November MACtion continues on Wednesday night as the Toledo Rockets (6-2 overall, 3-1 in the MAC West) travel to Akron to take on the Zips (5-4 overall, 3-2 in the MAC East). Both schools are coming off losses, Toledo losing at home to Ohio 31-26 and Akron coming off a loss 41-20 at Buffalo. This game qualifies as what could be described as the first knockout game of the MAC football season, as the loser will be all but mathematically out of their division race. The all-time series between Akron and Toledo is tied at nine victories apiece but the Zips have claimed two out of the last three meetings in this series. Toledo: The Rockets hosted Ohio last Thursday at 6-1, having lost only to BYU 55-53 back on Sept. 30 when the Cougars kicked the game-winning FG with no time remaining on the clock. QB Logan Woodside threw for 438 yards (three TDs and 1 INT), leading the Rockets to 560 yards of total offense but Toledo’s usually stingy defense allowed Ohio U 512 yards, including 212 rushing yards by Dorian Brown.The Rockets average 39.4 PPG (19th) on 544.4 YPG (4th), led by Woodside who has completed 71.0% for 2,715 yards with 31 TDs and 5 INTs. Despite ‘ugly’ efforts against BYU and Ohio U, Toledo’s defense allows 23.5 PPG (39th) on 377.0 YPG (42nd). Akron: The Zips average 31.2 PPG (51st) on 400.6 YPG (72nd) while the defense has allowed 34.2 PPG (1208t) on 483.1 YPG (118th). Akron QB Woodson is not in the class of Toledo’s Woodside, completing 62.0% for 1,763 yards with 16 TDs and 5 INTs, and the team's running game averages 135.3 YPG (109th) on 4.5 YPC. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt (790 yards on 4.7 YPC) leads a Toledo running game averaging 197.2 YPG. That’s bad news against an Akron defense allowing 228.7 YPG (112th). Terry Bowden took over a school which had gone 1-11 in back-to-back seasons and went 1-11 in his first season. Two 5-7 seasons followed but he led Akron to an 8-5 season, including a bowl win, the school’s second-ever bowl appearance. The pick: As noted at the top, the loser can pretty much kiss their respective diviosn titles goodbye. Yes, Akron has won two of the last three meetings but none of those matchups have come over the previous two seasons, when Toledo went 9-4 and 10-2. The Rockets are an excellent road team, having won nine of their last 10 true road contests. Let me also point out that Toledo’s games at BYU and last week at home against Ohio U are truly outliers. In Toledo's other six games here in 2016, the Rockets are allowing a modest 17.0 PPG on 320.0 YPG, which mirrors a team which allowed 20.0 PPG in going 10-2 in 2015. The Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: Hawaii opened 1-3 but with Dru Brown, a sophomore transfer from College of San Mateo taking over at starting QB, Hawaii has won three of four MWC games to even its record at 4-4. New Mexico is 4-3 overall (2-1 in MWC play) and will travel to Honolulu for a late Saturday night game. The Lobos sit one game behind Boise St and Wyoming (both 3-0) in the Mountain Division, while the 3-1 Rainbow Warriors trail 3-0 San Diego State (which plays Friday night at Utah St) in the West Division. New Mexico QB Lamar Jordan is not asked to do much through the air (Lobos average a meager 110.1 YPG passing) but he can sure direct the team's option offense, one which leads the nation with 374.1 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.9 YPC. Four players have more than 300 rushing yards so far, including Jordan with 333 (5.5 YPC). Owens has 687 yards on 7.8 YPC, while Gipson has 623 yards on an amazing 13.0 YPC. McQuarly may have a modest 341 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC but he’s the TD leader with 10 rushing scores. New Mexico needs to score to win, as the defense allows 33.9 PPG (106th). Brown’s averaged 259.5 YPG through the air with nine TDs and just two INTs in leading Hawaii to a 3-1 start in conference play. Hawaii surely can’t match New Mexico success at running the ball but Diocemy Saint Juste (614 yards on 6.0 YPC) leads a rushing attack averaging 183.0 YPG on 5.2 YPC. Fellow RBs Harris (328 yards on 7.1 YPC) and Lakalaka (317 yards but 10 TDs), are nice complements. Hawaii’s defense is an issue, allowing 37.4 PPG (120th) on 477.8 YPG (118th). The pick: The Lobos’ starting QB Jordan is suffering from a hamstring injury and with backup Austin Apodaca still recovering from a collarbone fracture, JaJuan Lawson could get the start. The sophomore has attempted just five passes and run only 12 times in limited action over three games. Just maybe, New Mexico’s option will not be at peak efficiency. The Rainbow Warriors took to the air in beating Air Force last week but more use of the team's trio of RBs (see above) could control the ball and eat some clock. My 10* play is on the Under. 

The set-up: Cincinnati is 4-3 overall (1-3 in AAC play) as the Bearcats visit Temple (5-3 / 3-1) on Saturday afternoon. The Bearcats have been postseason regulars, having made 14 bowl appearances since 1997, including all three years under current head coach Tommy Tuberville. However, while Cincinnati needs only two wins to reach six victories to go bowling again this season, the path will be difficult with road games at Temple (here) and UCF (11/12) plus home games against BYU (11/5) and Memphis 11/18) still left among the team's final five games. Temple’s Matt Ruhle led the Owls to a 10-4 season last year and pleased all in Philly when he decided to not seek greener pastures. Down 25-7 in the first half at UCF on Oct. 15, Temple shut out the Knights in the second half and won 26-25, with the game-winning TD pass coming with one second remaining. Temple followed with a 46-30 pasting of USF last Saturday, rushing for 319 yards. Cincinnati: The Bearcats ended a two-game slide with their first AAC win of the season last week, beating East Carolina 31-19. Former starter Gunner Kiel returned to the lineup at QB after losing his job and passed for 348 yards and four TDs (who expected that?). The Cincy defense held an opponent under 20 points for the first time since opening the season with a 28-7 win over UT-Martin but all in all, the defense has been pretty decent, allowing 24.4 PPG on the year. However, after averaging 30-plus PGG over each of the last five season, this year’s team is averaging just 24.1 PPG. Temple: With back-to-back league wins over UCF and USF, Temple is back in position for a second-straight trip to the AAC title games (lost last season at Houston). The Owls are tied atop the East with South Florida at 3-1 and would love for Navy to upend USF Friday night in Tampa. The Owls can’t control that outcome of that but Temple now owns the tiebreaker over the Bulls with last week’s win, so it’s just a matter of controlling one’s own destiny. RB Ryquell Armstead ran for a career-best 210 yards last week and starting QB Philip Walker did not throw an interception for just the second time this season. The pick: After back-to-back important wins, I expect Temple to play this one close to the vest, not asking Walker, a limited passer at best, to do too much, while depending on the team's very good RB duo of Armstead (613 yards / 9 TDs) and Jahad Thomas (413 yards / 9 TDs). Kiel lost his starting job earlier for a good reason, he hadn’t played well. I don’t expect him to come anywhere close to playing as well as he did last week, against a solid Temple defense, allowing 321.5 YPG to rank 16th in the nation. The Under is an 8* play. 

The set-up: San Diego State ended the 2015 season on a 10-game winning streak, finishing 11-3 after a 42-7 win over Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. The Aztecs opened the 2016 season with three more wins, as SDSU rose to 19th in the AP poll. However, a 42-24 loss at South Alabama on October 1st saw the Aztecs fall from the rankings. However, the Aztecs visit Utah State Friday night 6-1 overall and atop the West Division of the MWC at 3-0. Utah State is hoping for a sixth straight bowl appearance but has some work to do, sitting at 3-4 overall and at 1-3, is tied for last-place with Air Force in the Mountain Division of the MWC. San Diego State: The Aztecs are averaging 32.4 PPG (50th) led by a running game averaging 252.7 YPG (14th) on 5.3 YPC. RB Donnel Pumphrey ran for just 98 yards in the team’s opener against New Hampshire but has topped 100 yards in each of SDSU’s last six games (he now owns 28, 100-yard games in his career), including two efforts of over 200 yards. He has 1,246 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 rushing TDs here in 2016. QB Chapman completes 64.0 percent but averages only 164.4 YPG passing with nine TDs but also has thrown only three INTs. The SDSU defense has been very good, despite an ‘ugly’ effort in the loss to South Alabama. The Aztecs are allowing just 17.6 PPG (13th) on 285.7 YPG (5th). Utah State: Gary Andersen began the turnaround in Logan, earning bowl bids in 2011 and 2012 for the Aggies, the school’s first since 1997. He then left for Wisconsin with his assistant, Matt Wells, taking over at his alma mater. Wells has continued Utah State’s rebirth and has extended the school’s bowl run to five in a row. A sixth straight bowl berth is in question, as without a win here (Utah State is about a six-point dog), the Aggies would need to win three of their final four games to reach six wins, with three of those four coming on the road. Junior QB Kent Myers is a dual threat, as he’s second on the team in rushing attempts (73) and third in rushing yards (272). Myers leads the MWC in completions per game (20.1), completing 59.0 percent for 1,480 yards but with just seven TDs (four interceptions). The running game averages 178.1 YPG (59th) on 4.9 YPC and Devante Mays (208 yards in the opener), who has been out most of the season with a leg injury, appears ready to return.Utah State’s defense is allowing 24.3 PPG (46th) on 359.6 YPG (35th). The pick: SDSU is the better team and Pumphrey one of CFB’s most overlooked stars, as he currently ranks 9th on the NCAA’s all-time rushing list (barring injury, he should close his career in the top-5). However, winning in Logan is no easy task. Consider this, Utah State is 26-4 in its last 30 home games, which includes a 17-2 record in MWC games. Utah State should be more than competitive in this one and with a fairly low total (for a CFB game), the Over is a 10* play.