The set-up: ULM is 0-8, while Arkansas State is 3-5. It's been a difficult year for both teams in many ways and I expect each to come out flat and disinterested here. Arknasas State won this game 48-41 last year, but that was then and this is now. Last year ULM averaged 31.6 PPG, but now the offense is sputtering along, averaging only 16.4 PPG. That's good news to Arkansas State's poor defense. The defense has been a mess for the Warhawks as well, but the Red Wolves' offense hasn't been anything to write home about this year. 

The pick: It's interesting to note that Arkansas State actually has the 13th ranked pass defense in the nation. Yes, these teams struggle defensively, but that's mainly against good teams. These are two bad teams and I expect that sloppy/awkward play to result in a solid, lower-scoring "under" once the final whistle sounds.

This is an 8* play on the UNDER ULM/Arkansas State.

The set-up: Both teams are in search of a victory. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina. App State bounced back from that loss to smash Troy 47-10 last weekend. QB Zac Thomas and the Mountaineers raced out to a four touchdown lead in the first half and then never looked back. Louisiana Lafayette has won five in a row after crushing UL Monroe 70-20 last weekend. Quarterback Levi Lewis had five touchdowns in the rout. App State's defense matches up well against the Cajuns option attack though, as it's allowing only 139 rushing yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams run the ball extremely well and in this very important contest, I expect each to run from start to finish. While both teams have played to some very high-scoring affairs of late, I expect this one to finally fall under (note that six of these team's last eight against each other have indeed fallen "under" the number.) 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/App State.

The set-up: Air Force is 2-2 and Utah State is 1-1. Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe that the competition level on the field of play will translate into offensive production. Air Force won this game 31-7 last year, but I expect a much higher-scoring contest here. Air Force has had three different games cancelled already in November. Overall the Falcons score 26 points per game and allow 18.3, but those numbers are skewed due to the small sample size. The Aggies dropped their first four games, but they finally broke through with a 41-27 win over New Mexico last time out. Utah State's offense broke out in a big way in that game and I expect the Aggies to build. And they'll have to, because their defense is terrible, conceding 35.2 PPG. 

The pick: Air Force will score at will here on the ground and the Aggies air attack is finally working. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Air Force/Utah State.

The set-up: Boise State enters off a terrible 51-17 home blowout loss to BYU, while Colorado State enters off an upset 34-24 win over Wyoming on Thursday. These teams have met nine times and the Broncos have won all nine games. That includes last year's 31-24 victory in Fort Collins. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Colorado State is 1-1. The Rams are somewhat "lucky" though, as they did allow 465 total yards of offense last week, but they managed to hold in the red zone somehow, while also forcing three Wyoming turnovers. 

The picks: The Broncos were forced to play with their third-string QB vs. BYU and it showed. Cade Fennegan finished with 187 yards and two TD's. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side as it looks to alleviate the pressure from Fennegan. This one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout" in my opinion. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER CSU/Boise State.

The set-up: Akron is coming off a 58-13 loss to WMU, while Ohio enters off a 30-27 setback to Central Michigan. Akron has lost two straight in this series. Last week Zach Gibson had 125 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The Zips struggled defensively last week, but the unit catches a bit of a break facing this run oriented Ohio offense. 

The picks: Bobcats' QB Kurtis Rourke had 231 passing yards and two TD's in last week's loss, while De'Montre Tuggle had 79 rushing yards and a TD. Ohio was caught flat-footed defensively last time out, but once again, the Bobcats defense catches a big break here facing this poor Akron offense. While the total went over in both team's first game of the year, and while the over has hit in the last three in this series, the overall circumstances finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER in Akron/Ohio.

The set-up: The Sooners are out of their fourth straight win here. There's no reason to run up the score in the second half though. It's true these teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the overall situation that each school finds itself in coming into this contest will finally lead to a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma smashed the Red Raiders 62-28 last weekend, but I don't expect a repeat performance here, despite the Jayhawks' issues on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas is looking to get off the schneid, entering at 0-6, and looking to atone for a poor 52-22 setback to No. 17 Iowa State last time out. 

The pick: Another situational factor that leads me to believe that Oklahoma will take the foot off the gas in the second half is scheduling. The Sooners enjoy their bye-week next week, before finishing off the season vs. Oklahoma State, at WVU and at Baylor. The total has also gone "under" in four of these teams last six in the series. I base my picks on many things, but my O/U selections are primarily based on "situations." This one meets several of my personal criteria. This number is high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Kansas/Oklahoma.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too.

The pick: The "over" has hit in four of these teams last five vs. each other and I expect that strong trend to continue here. This number is low, the play is the over!

This is a 9* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the OVER App State/Louisiana Monroe.

The set-up: The Horned Frogs are 1-1 on the season and they'll be looking to build off their big upset win over Texas last weekend. Kansas State comes in off back-to-back big wins, winning outright in Oklahoma as a 27-point underdog, before then taking care of business vs. Texas Tech last weekend. These teams only combined for 41 points last year, but I expect a much more explosive affair this time around. K-State is averaging 392.7 YPG and it's allowing 492.3 (the Wildcats have been outgained in both their victories so far.) 

The pick: TCU has already played two really high-scoring affairs, losing 37-34 to Iowa State, before then pulling off the 33-31 upset victory over No. 9 Texas on Saturday. TCU is averaging 478 YPG, while allowing 405.5. While the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams have gone "under," these offenses are firing on all cylinders this year and I expect that trend to carry over into this one. This contest has "shootout" written all over it.

This is an 8* O/U DESTRUCTION on the OVER K-State/TCU.

The set-up: The Aggies look to regroup after last week's 52-24 loss to the Crimson Tide. The Aggies' issues are on offense though, as Kellen Mond has offensive line issues, which has led to him having zero chemistry with receivers at this point. Prior to the Bama loss, Florida struggled in a 17-12 win over lowly Vandy. The Aggies defense though has been fantastic, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and a 44 percent third-down conversion rate. 

The pick: Kyle Trask and the Gators will have their hands full here. Trask so far has ten TD's and just one INT. The offense has averaged 44.5 PPG in the early going. Last week the defense held South Carolina to 329 yards. Florida head coach Dan Mullen though likes to run out the clock while on offense, to keep opposing offenses off the field. Expect a lot of running from both sides on offense and for this total to indeed stay well "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Florida/Texas A&M.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-2. I'm expecting a defensive affair. 15 projected starters returned for the Cardinals this year, so the team was expecting to improve upon its 8-5 showing from last season. Louisville will be desperate here to avoid an 0-3 start in ACC play. QB Malik Cunningham had 22 TDs and only five INTs last year, but he's already thrown five picks over his first three games this season. Despite getting outgained 376-223 to Pittsburgh last week, Louisville still only lost by three points. Louisville averages 29.7 PPG and it allows 30.3. 

The pick: The Yellow Jackets have struggled defensively as well in conceding 33 PPG, but their offense has been worse in averaging just 19 PPG. Georgia Tech's offense is still a work in progress though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this focussed Louisville side. GT has yet to score 20 points in a games this year, while Louisville has seen less than 57 total points scored in two of its first three this season. Neither QB has been great, so it's time for these defeneses to finally shine. This number is a tad hight.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Louisville/Georgia Tech.

The set-up: Last year OSU won this contest 40-21 on the road and I expect a similar final combined score here as well, as it sneaks "under" this sky-high number. Interesting to note, that Tulsa actually ahd a 21-20 lead at half time, but OCU scored 20 unanswered and locked down defensively in the second half for the big victory. Tulsa was only 4-8 last year and its offense revolves around its two senior RB's in Corey Taylor II and Shamari Brooks. QB Zach Smith had 3,279 yards passing last year, with 20 TD's and nine INT's. 

The pick: The Cowboys were 8-5 last year and averaged 32.5 PPG. OSU returns NCAAF's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard as well. Spender Sanders had 16 TD passes and 11 INT's. Also note, the Cowboys return their entire defensive core. Two years ago OSU allowed 30-plus PPG. Last year it allowed 26.8. Now the Cowboys are once again expected to take a big step in a positive direction defensively. And that's bad news for this run first Tulsa side. This number is too high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Tulsa/Oklahoma.

The set-up: Navy was 11-2 last year, but it enters having lost dynamic play-making QB Malcom Perry. Dalen Morris is now in charge of running the triple option, but he'll obviously need at least a few games under his belt to gain chemistry. Expect to see a heavy dose of Navy's two top RB's from last year in Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith. The defense was also a strength last season, allowing just 22.3 PPG. 

The pick: BYU was 7-6 last year, but the Cougars should definitely improve with 15 starters returning, including eight on offense. That includes QB Zach Wilson, who will look to improve upon his 11:9 TD:INT. Look for BYU to also lean heavily on its running game here on offense, as its top three RB's return this season. Also note that the defense was strong for the Cougars last year, allowing just 25.5 PPG and that unit should be much stronger with 12 of its top 14 tacklers returning. This one screams "under," with both teams looking to establish the run while on offense. This number is high.

The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER BYU/Navy.

The set-up: Ohio finished 6-6 and Nevada was 7-5. The Bobcats needed to win their last two games to become eligible. Ohio put up 66 and 52 points over its final two games, but I expect a more conservative score here once it's all said and done. The Bobcats rely on their run game on offense, one which actually ranks 22nd in the country by averaging 216.5 YPG. The Wolfpack had their three-game win streak snapped with a loss in their finale. QB Carson Strong was a bright spot in defeat, throwing for 351 yards, one TD and no INT's. 

The pick: Ohio's defense also improve down the stretch and that unit is going to be tested throughout by the powerful run game of Nevada. Additionally note that Ohio has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after two straight wins by 21 or more points, while Nevada has seen the total dip below in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "run and gun shootout." This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Ohio/Nevada.

The set-up: Baylor is 11-2 and Georgia is 11-2. The Bears are the fifth ranked team in the country and the Bulldogs are the seventh. The Bears average 35.2 PPG and they allow 19.3. Georgia was in the Sugar Bowl last year and it lost. The Bulldogs will be especially motivated tonight. Georgia averages 31.2 PPG and it allows only 12.5, but I think the defense is pushed to the brink here by this Bears' high-flying offensive attack. 

The pick: Note as well that Baylor has seen the total fly over the number in three of its last four after two weeks or more of rest, while Georgia has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven neutral site affairs when the total is set between 41.5 and 45. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Baylor/Georgia.

The set-up: Virginia lost to Clemson in the ACC Title game and finished 9-4, while Florida wasn't quite as good as Georgia in the SEC, but still finishing 10-2. The Cavs fell 62-17 to Clemson in the title game, but overall UVA has been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 32.4 PPG and allowing 26.5. The Gators are averaging 33 PPG and allowing only 14.4. I think UVA is going to have difficulties moving the ball again vs. this Florida defense which is ranked among the best in the nation. 

The pick: Note as well that UVA has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or longer lay off, while Florida has seen the total go under in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Florida went over the number just four times this year and I don't expect that strong trend to change tonight. Play the under. 

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER UVA/Florida.

The set-up: Clemson is 13-0 and Ohio State is 12-1. If you're betting and watching and this game, then the overall story lines and cast of characters are well known to you. The strengths and weaknesses are also well known to even a casual NCAAF fan. I don't need to break down individual player matchups, because I don't think it's necessary. While both teams have been exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, both have also been unreal offensively and ultimately I think that the longer lay off will be more beneficial to each teams offense. The Tigers have averaged 54.2 PPG over their last six games and just put up 62 vs. a stingy Virginia defense in the ACC Title game. Not to be outdone though, Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the nation by averaging 48.7 PPG behind the strong play of QB Justin Fields.

The pick: Note as well that Clemson has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, while Ohio State has seen the total fly over the number in both games already this season in which it's had two weeks or more of rest in. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Clemson/OSU.

The set-up: These are two teams that want to actually win this game and I believe that focus and intensity will translate into offensive production on the field of play tonight. WSU is coming off a listless loss to Washington in its finale, held to just 13 points. Clearly this top 10 Cougars offense will be eager to get back on track here. Expect WSU to air it out early and often with dynamic QB Anthony Gordon today. 

The pick: The Falcons enter having won seven straight. Air Force has a top 40 offense and a top 20 defense. Donald Hammond III will have his opportunities today as well vs. a Cougars' secondary which allows nearly 290 passing yards per game. I think this has one has "track meet" written all over it.

10* play on the OVER WSU/Air Force.

The set-up: Pitt fell 26-19 to Boston College at home in its regular season finale, while EMU also lost its final game, falling 34-26 to Kent State. The Panthers though come in with zero momentum as they dropped their final two games of the year, including getting blanked by Virginia Tech in their second to last game. Pittsburgh averages only 20.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 21.8. 

The pick: EMU averages 29.1 PPG and it allows 30.3. With a month off to prepare for this one though, I think that Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi can contain the Eagles' offense. The Panthers will indeed look to control the clock throughout this contest while on offense and in a scenario like this, the "under" is the correct call in my opinion. 

10* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Pitts/EMU.

The set-up: The 7-5 BYU Cougars are in Hawaii to take on the 9-5 Warriors and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written all over it. The Rainbow Warriors were 6-2 in Aloha Stadium this year, including victories over Arizona and Oregon State. Hawaii eventually fell 31-10 to Boise State in the Championship Game, but I think that Cole McDonald and company will bounce back here with so much time off to prepare. McDonald finished with 3,642 yards and 29 TD's this season. Overall the Warriors average 33.6 PPG, while allowing 31.7. BYU won five straight before a listless 13-3 loss at SDSU. Like Hawaii though, I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will be beneficial to the offense, which averaged 39.8 PPG during the five-game win streak. Overall the Cougars average 28 points and allow 24.4 per game. 

The pick: Note as well that BYU has seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this year, while Hawaii has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four home games already this season when the total in the contest is set between 61 and 70 points. I believe the only game in town tonight will feature a lot of offense, and not much defense. Play the over.

10* play on the OVER BYU/Hawaii.

The set-up: This is a home game for the Owls, as this game is being played at FAU Stadium. SMU is enoying just its sixth ten win season in its 102 year history. The Mustangs won eight in a row before a blowout loss to Memphis, followed by a 35-28 setback to Navy. The Mustangs are averaging 43.2 PPG and allowing 31.8. However with the extended time off, I think that QB Shane Buechele's chemistry will be "off" to begin. FAU is stingy as well and it comes in on a six-game win streak after beating UAB 49-6 in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls average 2.5 takeaways per game and a +1.6 turnover margin per contest. 

The pick: Additionally note that SMU has in fact seen the total go under the number in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range, while FAU has seen the total dip under in 14 of its last 20 at home, including in five of seven this season. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

8* play on the UNDER SMU/FAU.

The set-up: Last year CMU was 1-11, but this year they lost to Miami Ohio 26-24 in the MAC Championship game. The Chips were 8-5 and they enter this contest with a balanced offense, ranked 40th in the country in both passing and running. SDSU was 9-3 on the year and finished behind Hawaii in the MWC West. The Aztecs only allow 12.8 PPG, but I think the unit will take a predictable step back here after the long lay off. Clearly CMU is going to be out to push the pace as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone. QB Quinten Dormady is a senior for the CHips and he had 2,148 passing yards with a sharp 14:6 TD:INT. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that CMU has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as an underdog this year, while SDSU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as a neutal field favorite of seven points or less. This number is a tad low.

10* play on CMU/SDSU OVER.

The set-up: 3-8 Bowling Green meets 6-5 Buffalo with nothing on the line. Yes the Bulls could be eligible for a slightly better bowl game with a win today, but after becoming eligible last time out, a mental lapse is inevitable in my opinion. Bowling Green is just 3-8 and can't even use the role of spoiler as motivation today. Bowling Green was killed 66-24 by Ohio last time out and I have a hard time seeing it mustering that much offense this time around. Buffalo smashed Toledo 49-30 in its last game. 

The pick: The Bulls really do need one more win to solidy their positioning, but this is a contest in which it can sit back and control the tempo. Bowling Green is a run first offense and Buffalo ranks in the top ten in stopping the rush. Also note that four of Bowling Green's five games on the road this year have fallen under the number already. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle this time around.

10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bowling Green/Buffalo.

The set-up: Mississippi State is 5-6 and it needs to win this game to become eligible. Ole Miss is 4-7 and it's now out to play the role of spoiler. The Egg Bowl looks like a "shootout" out to me this year. Mississippi comes in off a game in which its defense just allowed 58 points to LSU. 

The pick: Mississippi State completely dominated this game last year, winning 35-3. This year Ole Miss is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air, so QB Tommy Stevens is primed for a big performance on the National stage in my opinion. Note that Ole Miss has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year after playing a game at home, while Mississippi State has seen the total eclipse the number in three of four this season following a SU victory. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Mississippi/Mississippi State.

The set-up: Both teams are eligible for a bowl. Liberty is 6-4 and Virginia is 7-3. I'm expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game between these two non-conference opponents, each looking to improve its bowl positioning. The Cavs won this game last year, but neither team was able to break the 400 yard barrier on the offensive side. Virginia also has to be wary here not to "look ahead" to its game vs. Virginia Tech in its regular season finale (note that three of Virginia's last five wins came by single digits.) 

The pick: Liberty QB Stephen Calvert has 23 TD's and just three INT's this season, but I think he'll have a difficult time here from this aggressive Virginia pass rush that can not afford to look past its opponent today. Note as well that Liberty has seen the total dip under the number in all four games it's played in already this year as the underdog, while Virginia has seen the total dip below in its last four after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This total is a tad high.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Liberty/Virginia.

The set-up: Miami Ohio won last year's contest 30-28 and I expect a similar hard-fought and ultimately higher-scoring game here as well. That victory snapped a five-game win streak in the series for Ohio. Miami Ohio is 4-4 and 3-1 in Conference play and it comes in confident after winning its last two games, including a 23-16 road victory over Kent State in its most recent. Ohio is also 4-4 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, most recently pulling away for a 34-21 victory over Ball State. The winner will take over first place in the MAC. Brett Gabbert is the QB for the RedHawks and he has 1360 passing yards and four receivers with 100 receiving yards. Note that the Bobcats allow 446.5 YPG on the defensive side. 

The pick: Ohio though has scored 78 points over its last two games (both victories) and I expect the home side to open up the playbook and push the pace again here as well. Bobcats' QB Nathan Rourke has 1,743 passing yards with ten TD's and five INT's so far. Note that Miami Ohio has seen the total go over the number in its last four after two straight wins over a conference rival, while Ohio has seen the total go over in 11 of its last 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL BEATDOWN on the OVER Miami Ohio/Ohio.

The set-up: The San Jose State Spartans are 4-4. Note that that's more victories than their last two season's combined. San Jose State needs two more wins to become eligible and I expect the home side to open up the playbook as it looks to pull off the upset. Boise State is 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country, but it'll be out to rebound here after a 28-25 loss to BYU last weekend. 

The pick: San Jose State QB Josh Love has been "under the radar" all season, as he comes in ranked No. 2 in the conference in passing yards and in eight games he's only thrown three INT's. The Spartans though are allowing the second most yards in the conference defensively (442.9), so Love has had to push the pace almost every weekend. Boise State has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 on the road, while San Jose State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after a road victory. The numbers and situation point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* play on the OVER Boise State/San Jose State.

The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. 

The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii.

The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU.

The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon.

The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State.  App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette.

The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. 

The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State.

The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under.

The set-up: It’s the annual Rio Grande Rivalry and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lobos are 40-14-3 at home against NMSU in Albuquerque. But note that the Aggies have won two of the last three in this series. With neither side lacking for confidence or motivation, this one definitely has more the feel of a wide open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” New Mexico State is led by Tevaka Tuioti, who was 6 for 13 for 132 yards vs. Notre Dame, and who is a legitimate dual threat QB. 

The pick: These two teams hate each other and I believe that extra factor is going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout. Note as well though that New Mexico State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight after a loss by 17 points or more, while New Mexico has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a shade low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER New Mexico State/New Mexico.

The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish.

The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane.

The set-up: TCU comes out of its bye week and I look for it to match pace with the home side. The Horned Frogs won’t be taking anything for granted after having lost three of their last four on the road dating to last year. TCU is 1-0 after beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. So far the Horned Frogs have averaged 200 yards per game and allowed just seven points. But clearly TCU is in for a much stiffer test this evening. 

The pick: Purdue has won four of its last five home games. The Boilermakers have gotten 932 yards and nine TD’s from QB Elijah Sindelar and I look for the senior QB to open up the playbook tonight as well. He’ll have to, as note that Purdue is allowing 29 points and 447.5 YPG on the defensive side of things. TCU comes in rested and focused and knows it can’t rest on its heels if it has any hopes at an upset. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely feel this number is a little low.

10* totals play on OVER TCU/Purdue.

The set-up: I’m making a play on both the side and the total in this game. If you’ve bought this package, then you know that I’m on the Tar Heels with the points here. After starting the year 2-0, I think that Wake is going to take a step back here. The Demon Deacons have a “cream puff” next weekend vs. Elon, before a gruelling upcoming schedule vs. Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and NC State. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!”

The pick: UNC has been better than advertised at 2-0 and I expect the visitors to once again lean heavily on RB Javonte Williams, who so far has 178 yards over two games. Additionally note that UNC has seen the total go under in its last five games after a win by six points or less in two straight games. This number is a shade high.

10* play on the under UNC/Wake.

The set-up: The Orange won’t be taking anything for granted in Week 1 after finishing 10-3 last year (6-2 in the ACC). Syracuse was invited the Camping World Bowl where it defeated WVU 34-18. The Flames finished 6-6 in 2018 and they still weren’t invited to go Bowling. Clearly Liberty will be out to score an early upset here after getting snubbed last season. 

The pick: The Orange were dominant defensively last year, but the unit has suffered turnover in the offseason. Syracuse has to deal with Maryland before a date vs. the Tigers, so I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout (Note as well that the Orange have seen the total fly over the number in four of their last five as a road favorite.) This number is a little low.

Syracuse/Liberty OVER 10* play

The set-up: I believe these non-conference opponents open up the playbook on Friday night and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Purdue went 6-7 in 2018, while Nevada was 8-5. But the Boilermakers overcame an 0-3 start to win six of their final nine games. The Wolfpack also started slowly by going 3-3, but they went 4-2 the rest of the way. 

The pick: Both teams return plenty of starters from last season and each will clearly be looking to “hit the ground running” in 2019 after their respective slow starts last year. In the end Nevada scored 25 or more points in nine of its 13 games, while Purdue would average just under 30 PPG last season. For all the situational reasons listed above, play the over.

Purdue/Nevada OVER 10* play

The set-up: The Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 Championship tho shear, with 15 returning starters from last years team. The Utes get the job done with a suffocating defense which has all four defensive linemen returning from a rushing defense which led the conference with just 1003 YPG. The Utes also have an experienced offense, with QB Tyler Huntley back under center, along with RB Zack Moss. 

The pick: BYU had a 20-point third-quarter lead over Utah a year ago, but it wound up losing 35-27 in the end. The Cougars have lost eight in a row in this series. BYU is once again led by QB Zach Wilson. The secondary for the Cougars took a hit with both Chris Wilcox and Troy Warner injured in camp. BYU has to keep Utah honest, so look for the home side to try and establish its run game throughout. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it.

Utah/BYU UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Two teams with a ton of momentum collide in the Gator Bowl from Jacksonville Florida on Monday night and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. NC State enters on a three-game win streak over Louisville, UNC and ECU, while Texas A&M also posted three straight wins to end the year over Ole Miss, UAB and LSU. NC State will be leaning heavily on QB Ryan Finley here, and he has 3,789 passing yards along with 24 TD’s. The Aggies weakness on defense is against the pass, allowing 262.7 YPG. Clearly Finley will be given the “green light” to air it out from start to finish. The Aggies are also down several defenders, including safety Donovan Wilson. The Aggies feature a potent offensive attack as well, featuring dynamic back Trayveon Williams, who had 1,524 rushing yards and 15 major scores.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NC State has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine non-conference road games as an underdog in the 2.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: The Irish are 12-0 and the Tigers are 13-0. This is the Cotton Bowl, but the winner of this will move on to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the National Championship Game. Notre Dame had to hold on for dear life in its regular season finale vs. USC, while Clemson easily steamrolled Pittsburgh in its ACC Championship title. Both teams feature elite defenses and I believe they’ll “steal the show” in this one. 

The pick: Each team will be trying to establish its run game throughout while on offense. And take it row what you will, but Notre Dame has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten after allowing 280 or more passing yards in its previous game and in four of its last five neutral site games, while Clemson has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last nine neutral site affairs on a three weeks or more lay off. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: No one expected the Orange to finish 9-3 overall and go 5-1 in their last six, but now they’ll look to continue to defy the odds and carry that momentum over into the Camping World Bowl. WVU comes in off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma and it’ll be without starting QB Will Grier, who will skip to focus on the draft. That just means that it’s “next man up” for the Mountaineers. And that next man is Jack Allison, who now has a golden opportunity to cement his role next year. WVU is loaded with other offensive weapons though and the Mountaineers will be hungry to finish up strong as well. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Syracuse has seen the total go “over” the number in five of seven as a favorite already this year, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of six already this season when the total is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: I think this one will sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. This is the Texas Bowl from NRG Stadium in Houston. Vandy became eligible by winning its final two games of the year over Ole Miss and Tennessee. Baylor’s also looking to cap a 6-6 season a high note after it broke a two-game skid with a bowl eligibility victory over Texas Tech back on November 24th. On offense, Vanderbilt will be leaning on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who posted 1,001 rushing yards and ten TD’s on 144 carries this season. Baylor is susceptible against the run as well, allowing 172.8 rushing yards per game. Vandy also has a steady presence under center in Kyle Shurmur, who finished with 2,844 yards and 23 passing TD’s. After only one victory last season, clearly the Bears are very happy to be back bowling this year. Baylor’ QB Charlie Brewer finished with 2,635 passing yards and and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four when playing with two weeks rest, while Baylor has seen the total go “over” in its last two non-conference games. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Buffalo enters with a 10-3 record, while Troy finished 9-3. Buffalo averaged 34.8 PPG, behind a strong rushing offense which finished 45th in the country. The Bulls were above average defensively, allowing just 24.7 PPG, ranked 48th (Jared Patterson and Kevin Marks had 1,751 rushing yards combined). Troy only averaged 29.8 PPG, but it made up for it on the other side of the ball by allowing only 21.2 (ranked 23rd.) The Trojans had to make a shift at QB when No. 1 Kaleb Barker went down with injury and backup Sawyer Smith was average at best, finishing with a 10/6 TD:INT over seven games. Troy’s offense revolves around RB BJ Smith, who posted at least 100 rushing yards in five of his last eight games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after having lost two of its last three games, while Troy has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five following a two weeks or more period of rest. This number is high, play the “under.” 

8* play

The set-up: I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. UAB won the C-USA with a 10-3 record, while NIU was 8-5 overall. The Blazers ten wins were a school record and UAB got the job done with stifling defensive play. UAB has a question mark with its starting QB AJ Erdely, but the strength on offense is the run game behind Spencer Brown anyways. The UAB offense would only post 30 points four times this year, but the defense is allowing just 17.3 PPG. NIU also relies on its run game to generate offense, led by Tre Harbison. The Huskies averaged only 20.7 PPG and they allowed just 21.5. 

The pick: Two defensive minded teams which rely on the run game collide in this one. Also note that UAB has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five then the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while NIU has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 15 when the total is set in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Navy dominated this match-up for over a decade, but the Army Golden Knights come into this year’s match-up having won two straight. Army is 9-2 in 2018 and enters on top form, having won seven straight. Navy is just 3-9 and it’s gone only 1-8 in its last nine overall. The Midshipmen live for this game though and I’m expecting the underdog to push the pace from start to finish. This is the first time since 2002 that Navy will finish with a losing record, so it’ll have one last shot at redemption here as it looks to play spoiler on Army’s great overall campaign to this point. With both teams pushing the pace, from a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Note as well though that Navy has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four as a neutral field underdog, while Army has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 20 as a favorite. Play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: It’s the AAC Championship between Memphis and UCF. The Tigers finished 8-4 overall, while the Knights come in at 11-0. UCF may be without its starting QB McKenzie Milton, but I think that Darriel Mack Jr. is “the next man up,” and will fill in seamlessly. The Tigers will be relying on the legs of RB Darrell Henderson, who had 24 carries for 178 yards and two TD’s in last week’s high-scoring 52-31 win over Houston. 

The pick: Mack is out to prove himself and he will be given the green light to air it out all night long. Memphis will be pushing the pace as well as it tries to pull off the upset. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring “shootout” written all over it.

8* play

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams. The winner plays in the Big West title game. Utah State has won ten in a row and it plays with revenge after falling in this contest last year. The Aggies have a difficult task ahead of them and they were almost caught “looking ahead” to this one with a “close call” against Colorado State last weekend. Utah State has its eyes on a big bowl game, but it’ll have to take it one game at a time: “Survive and advance. Just like in the NCAA Tournament,” Utah State head coach Matt Wells said after the game, according to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com. “You know, I’m going to celebrate after a win like this. I’m going to let the players celebrate all the way until Monday. We have a special season going.”

Boise State looked decent offensively against a weak New Mexico defense last week, but the Broncos looked great defensively, holding the Lobos to only 14 points.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah State has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records, while Boise State has seen the total go “under” in four of five already this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams and that fact alone is the reason why I predict a high-scoring shootout. The Sooners will be playing in the Big 12 Championship Game next week no matter what, but clearly Oklahoma would like to win out with the hopes of somehow making it into the Playoff Championship. WVU needs to win this game and have Texas lose for its opportunity to play in the Conference championship and while the deck is stacked against them, clearly the Mountaineers are going to leave everything they have on the field on Seniors night. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring game in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten as a road favorite, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of its last eight as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: It’s the No. 13 Syracuse Orange vs. the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish from Yankee Stadium in New York on Saturday and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Orange enter off a high-scoring 54-23 victory over Louisville, while the Irish come in off a 42-13 home beatdown of FSU. Overall Syracuse is averaging 44.4 PPG and allowing 27.6. Notre Dame needs to win today and next week against USC and it’ll be going to the College Football playoff. Overall the Irish average 34.5 PPG and they concede only 18.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Syracuse has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine road games after scoring 52 points or more in a victory in its previous outing. The neutral site affair helps turn this into a lower-scoring “under.”

8* play

The set-up: Toledo enters off a 38-15 road loss to Illinois last Wednesday, while Kent State comes in off a 48-14 loss to Buffalo on the road last Tuesday. Toledo has won three in a row in the series, including a 38-7 victory at home last year. Toledo is averaging 38.6 PPG and it’s allowing 31.5. QB Mitchel Guadagni has 1,053 passing yards and 13 TD’s, while also adding 423 on he ground and another four TD’s. Kent Tate is averaging 23.3 points and it’s allowing 35.6. QB Woody Barrett has 1,932 passing yards with ten TD’s and eight INT’s with another 422 rushing yards and six TD’s on the ground.

The play: Note that Toledo has seen the total go “over” the number in two of its last three as a favorite, while Kent State has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last 14 at home. Both teams hungry for a win. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

At 3:30pmET, my selection is one Michigan/Rutgers to finish OVER the total. As one of the lowest totals on the board, I believe that this game gives everyone great value on the OVER. Michigan may even enough to score higher than the total themselves as they average 37 PPG this season so far. The last time the Wolverines played in HighPoint.com Stadium, they scored a total of 78 points. Look for another high scoring game. Take the OVER.

The set-up: Ohio is on a roll and that’s not going to stop this weekend facing the RedHawks, who just lost 51-42 to Buffalo. The Bobcats are rolling across the board, , most recently winning 52-14 and 59-14 over WMU as a three-point dog last weekend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio has seen the total go “over” the number in both games that it’s played so far this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in three of its last four off a win against a conference rival, while the RedHawks have seen the total go “over” in four of five as an underdog already this year (and in four of their last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range). The RedHawks desperately need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. With each team pushing the pace, I’m expecting this one to soar “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: The Cardinals enter off a 38-31 OT road win in Oregon and I think it’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. Notre Dame annihilated Wake Forest 56-27 and it’ll be out to push the pace as well. Note that these teams played to a higher-scoring affair last year as well when Stanford won 38-20.

The teams: Cardinal’ QB KJ Costello was 19 of 26 for 327 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in last week’s win. Stanford is 47th in the country in passing at 264 YPG. RB Bryce Love had 89 yards and a TD last week. The defense has been super, allowing only 13.5 PPG, but clearly that units faces its stiffest test of the season.

Notre Dame is 71st in passing and 66th in total offense with 416.5 YPG. Last week Ian Book threw for 325 yards and two TD’s without an INT in the victory over the Deacons.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Stanford has seen the total go “over” the number in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Notre Dame has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four against the Pac 12. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium.

The teams: Hawaii is already 3-0 with wins over Rice, Navy and Colorado State. The Warriors have defied the odds to this point, most recently smashing Rice 43-29 as a 17 point favorite this past weekend. QB Cole McDonald was 22 of 33 for 319 yards and four TD’s last week, but I think Hawaii finally stumbles here against the Black Knights opportunistic defense and in this difficult road venue.

Army is 1-1 after losing to Duke its opener, before then bouncing back with a victory over Liberty. The Black Knights rushed for 449 yards last week and they’ll be looking to duplicate that performance here. The last thing Army wants to do is get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Warriors, so expect the home side offense to try and maintain possession for as long as possible, whenever possible.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Hawaii has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Army has seen the total go “under” in interestingly seven of its last ten games played in the month of September. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The home side will be eager to return to form here after a tough setback at Navy last weekend, eventually succumbing 22-21. Georgia State will be out to score an upset here and to atone for a lacklustre 41-7 loss to NC State last Saturday. This is the first ever meeting between the schools and I think each is going to be a wide open affair.

The teams: Georgia State scored the first TD of the game last week, but then it was shut down and outscored by 41 points the rest of the way. QB Dan Ellington threw for 194 yards. In his team’s season opening win over Kennesaw State he threw for 187 yards. But the Panthers defense is atrocious in the early going, most recently allowing the Wolfpack to throw for 426 yards. In fact the secondary returns just one starter.

Memphis smashed FCS Mercer 66-14, but it couldn’t hold on to a 21-9 lead over the Black Knights last week. Darrell Henderson had three TD runs, including 78 yard and 59 yard scampers. QB Brady White was 15 of 25 for 145 yards. The defense gave up 264 total yards. Last year the defense was a weak point, ranked 117th in the nation.

The pick: The Tigers were particularly poor against the pass last year as well, ranked 122nd by allowing 282.1 YPG. Memphis didn’t have to worry about Army passing, but it’s going to have its hands full today with a Panthers team looking to air it out early and often. This one just screams “shootout.” Play the “over.”

The set-up: This is the lone game on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think that points will be at a premium. Note that this is being played at a neutral field, at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.

The teams: Miami Florida was 10-3 last year, including 7-2 in the ACC, followed by a setback to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. The Hurricanes return QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 passing yards and a 26:14 TD/INT along with 468 rushing yards. Miami averaged 29.1 PPG and it allowed just 21.

LSU was 9-4 last year and 6-2 in SEC play, which was followed by a loss to Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers have a big void to fill this season with QB Danny Etling gone. Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow will be duking it for the No. 1 spot. LSU averaged 27.2 PPG last year, but I think it’ll struggle to match that pace early. The defense was a strength (giving up only 18.9 PPG) and it will be again this year as well.

The pick: These teams both have question marks on offense coming into the season, but each looks ready to build off an impressive defensive campaign with an even better performance this year. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This is a neutral site affair and I think points will be at a premium. Louisville was 8-5 last year and it lost 31-27 to Mississippi State in the TaxSalyer Bowl, while Alabama went 13-1 and won the College Football Championship with a 26-23 OT win over Georgia.

The teams: The Cardinals were 8-5 last year and only 4-4 in the ACC. Heisman QB Lamar Jackson is gone and there’s also a new defensive coordinator in Brian VanGorder. Louisville was 11th in the FBS in scoring last season, but that was with Jackson. The defense was in the middle though by allowing 27.4 PPG and it will be again this year as well. Jawon Pass is now the main man under center, he has 238 yards and two TD’s for his career. The run game focuses around Dae Williams and Trey Smith.

Alabama averaged 37.1 PPG and it allowed just 11.9. Note that seven different time the Tide would hold an opponent to just single digits. Jalen Hurts had 2,081 yards, 17 TD’s, as well as 855 rushing yards and eight more TD’s.

The pick: I think the defending champs control this one on both sides of the ball as the Tide look to roll to another National Championship. This one has “chess match,” written all over it. Play the “under.”

The set-up: It’s the Pac-12 and Big Ten on Saturday afternoon. Oregon State was just 1-11 last year, while Ohio State went 12-2. The Buckeyes would go on to beat USC 24-7 in the Cotton Bowl and I believe the tooth-less Beavers will have difficulty moving the sticks this afternoon as well.

The teams: Last year Oregon State put up just 20.7 PPG, while allowing 43. QB Jake Luton had 853 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s. Artavis Pierce was the standout on the ground with 323 yards and a TD.

The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and then smoked USC in the Cotton Bowl. Seven starters return to an offense which averaged 41.1 points. The defense was ranked 15th overall, allowing only 19 PPG. QB Dwayne Haskins had 565 yards and four TD’s.

The pick: Oregon State hasn’t had a winning season since 2013 and the Beavers are going to have their hands full again in 2018/19. Ohio State will look to control this one while on offense with its devastating ground attack, while also shutting the Beavers down from start to finish. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The SEC has been CFB's unquestioned top conference for some time now and it's only fitting that the 2017 SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs will square off in this year's CFP national championship game against their SEC rivals, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The winner will claim the national title for the ninth time in the past 12 seasons for the SEC. That said, the Bulldogs will be looking to win their first national title since the Herschel Walker-led team won the 1980 crown, while the Crimson Tide are striving for their fifth during Nick Saban's amazing 11-season tenure at Alabama. The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off a 54-48 double-overtime victory over the Oklahoma Sooners (arguably the best and most exciting game of the 2017 season, to-date), while Alabama left no doubt that it was fully deserving of being included in this year's 'Final 4' (despite not even winning the SEC West), by completely dominating No. 1 Clemson 24-6.

Georgia: The Bulldogs fell behind Oklahoma 31-14 but then scored the game's next 24 points to take a 38-31 lead. Oklahoma re-took the lead 45-38 but Georgia sent the game to OT tied at 45-all. After exchanging FGs in the first OT, Georgia blocked Oklahoma's FG attempt in the second OT and clinched a spot in the title game on Sony Michel's 27-yard TD run. Michel ran for 181 yards (16.5 YPC and 3 TDs) while Nick Chubb ran for 145 yards (10.4 YPC & 2 TDs). Georgia's freshman QB Jake Fromm has been seen a possible weak link for Georgia but he was 20-29 for 210 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) against Oklahoma, after going 16 of 22 for 183 yards (2 TDs & 0 INTs in the SEC title game vs. Auburn. No defense is capable of stopping Oklahoma's offense (Georgia allowed 48 points and over 500 yards) but note that Georgia entered the Rose Bowl matchup allowing just 13.2 PPG on 270.9 YPG.

Alabama: Speaking of defense, how about 'Bama's? The Crimson Tide stepped up last week and looked like the Alabama Crimson Tide of old, playing physical, nasty defense and doing just enough offensively to pull away. Make no mistake about it. Alabama won that game with its defense, giving the offense a short field with an interception and then getting a pick six. Alabama entered its game with Clemson allowing an FBS-low 11.5 PPG on 258.9 YPG and held Clemson to 188 totals yards (64 rushing yards) and six points. BTW, Clemson came in averaging 35.4 PPG and almost 450 YPG , including 244.1 YPG on the ground. Jalen Hurts continues to be under appreciated, but while he threw for just 120 yards he had two TD passes and did not throw an INT in 24 attempts. Hurts has passed for more than 200 yards in only two games this season but the Tide scored 37.9 PPG, and a multi-headed rushing attack ranks 10th nationally led by slashing RB Damien Harris (983 YR & 7.6 YPC / 11 TDs) and slamming 235-lb. Bob Scarbrough 573 YR / 4.8 YPC & 8 TDs). Plus, the elusive Hurts added another 808 YR (5.5 YPC & 8 TDs). Hurts is more feared as a runner but has 17 touchdown passes against just one interception (248 attempts) and enters this contest 27-2 as a starting QB.

The pick: Nick Saban will meet his former DC in Georgia's Kirby Smart, who is adamant that it doesn't give him crucial insights to the methods of the Crimson Tide. "There's not a lot of tendencies that he has that are just going to be ground-breaking to allow us a benefit," Smart said during a press conference. "The bottom line is our players got to go out and we've got to play a really good football game to stay with these guys." Saban also downplayed the situation, saying "I don't think the game is about the coaches. I think it's about the players." Aabama leads the nation in rushing defense at 92.8 YPG and will receive a big test from Georgia's senior duo of Nick Chubb (1,320 yards) and Sony Michel (1,129) bu that's what we thought against Clemson's running game, too. Athens may be in the same state as Atlanta but don't think this venue creates an edge for Georgia. The Crimson Tide are 6-0 in the Georgia capital overall since 2014. "We treat Atlanta like it's our home," Alabama linebacker Mack Wilson said. "We win a lot of games there." Should I close with the fact that Saban is 11-0 SU in his career vs. his former assistant coaches? Maybe, but instead, I expect to see a score closer to the Rose Bowl final than to what we saw in the Sugar Bowl. This total is TOO low. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The University of Phoenix Stadium is the setting for this year's Fiesta Bowl, featuring the 10-2 Washington Huskies and the 10-2 Penn State Nittany Lions. Each school was 7-2 in their respective conference schedules, the Huskies in the Pac-12 and the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten. Washington opened 6-0 but was then upset, losing to Arizona State on October 14. The Huskies won four of their last five games, including an Apple Cup rout of Washington State. Penn State began 7-0 but coughed up a big lead in losing 39-38 at Columbus to Ohio State, then lost the following week 27-24 at Michigan State. Penn State closed out with three straight wins, averaging 52.3 PPG.

Washington: The Huskies have an excellent QB in Jake Browning and a big-time RB in Myles Gaskin. Browning is completing 68.8% for 2,544 yards with 18 TDs and just five INTs. Gaskin (1,282 yards / 6.2 YPC / 19 TDs) leads a ground game averaging 189.8 YPG (38th). Washington will check in averaging 36.9 PPG (16th). Browning has seen a dip of nearly 900 yards and 25 TDs from his phenomenal 2016 campaign, but he is the school's all-time leader with 77 TD passes and is on the verge of becoming its second 9,000-yard career passer. Washington's defense is top-notch, allowing 14.5 PPG (5th) on 278.3 YPG (6th).

Penn State: RB Saquon Barkley was an early Heisman front-runner but he ended the regular season with 1,134 yards (5.7 YPC) and 16 TDs, while catching 47 passes for another 594 yards with three TDs. QB Trace McSorley led the Big Ten in passing (3,228 yards) and added 431 yards and 11 TDs on the ground to pace the nation's sixth-ranked scoring attack (41.6 PPG). The defense checks in allowing 15.5 PPG (7th) on 329.4 YPG (17th).

The pick: Penn State is 9th in the CFP rankings and returns to the area, if not the exact site, of one of its greatest bowl triumphs, the 14-10 victory over then-No. 1 Miami in the 1986 season. Penn State enjoyed a wonderful history in the Fiesta Bowl, going 6-0. Both teams had designs on a berth in the College Football Playoff (Washington for the second straight season) but both suffered two single-digit losses on the road, which was just enough to keep them on the outside looking in. While both teams owns outstanding defenses, expect the offenses to rule the day. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: This year's Holiday Bowl from San Diego will feature 9-3 Michigan State (7-2 in the Big Ten) and 9-3 Washington State (6-3 in the Pac 12). Michigan State bounced back from last season's awful 3-9 season to make a run at the Big Ten's East Division. The Spartans finished with three wins in their final four games (checking at No. 16 in the last CFP rankings), including an impressive 27-24 home win over then-No. 7 Penn State on Nov. 4. However, the very next Saturday, the Spartans were crushed 48-3 at Columbus and wound up one game back of the 8-1 Buckeyes, who went on to win the Big Ten championship game. The Cougars ended the 2016 season with three straight losses (including a bowl loss to a depleted Minnesota team) but opened 2017 in the AP's top-25 poll at No. 24 and closed at No. 21 (Washington St. is 18th in the latest CFP rankings).

Michigan State: The Spartans have been up and down offensively this season. The passing game averages 215.4 YPG (76th) and the ground game 162.9 YPG (67th). QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for 2,580 passing yards and 17 TD (just six INTs) but note that 845 of those yards and six of his scoring passes came over a two-game span bridging October and November (445 yards at Northwestern and 400 yards at home against Penn St.). Similarly, leading rusher LJ Scott (785 yards / 4.3 YPC / 6 TDs) gained 341 and had three TDs in two wins, at Minnesota and home against Maryland. Looking back at his season and we find that he had fewer than 40 yards rushing in four games this season. Teams coached by Mark Dantonio have always been known for defense and this yera's Spartans come in 9th in total defense (297.4 YPG allowed) and 24th in scoring defense at 20.2 PPG.

Washington State: The Cougars will challenge MSU's defense with one of the best offensive passing attacks in the country (374.8 YPG ranks 2nd), led by their record-setting QB, Luke Falk, who has thrown 3,593 yards with 30 TDs and 13 INTs (he became the Pac-12's all-time career passing leader in November)..Falk has thrown to a deep group of receivers throughout his three seasons as Washington State's starting QB, while operating behind a stout offensive line. This season's leading receivers for the Cougars has been Tavares Martin Jr. (70 catches / 9 TDs), Isaiah Johnson-Mack (60 catches / 5 TDs) and Kyle Sweet (50 catches / 2 TDs). Then there is RB Jamal Morrow who had 56 catches and four TDs. However, the Cougars' running game ranks 129th, averaging a woeful 71.1 YPG. WSU averaged 38.2 YPG but this year's team checks in at a more modest 31.4 per. A challenge will be that Tavares Martin Jr. was dismissed from the team and Isaiah Johnson-Mack left the program. However, that doesn’t mean the team won’t continue to go to the air, especially with seven players remaining that have caught 24 or more passes this season. Mike Leach has always been known for his "Air Raid" offense but after his first three Washington St. teams allowed 33.7, 32.5 and 38.6 PPG, his next two dipped under the 30 PPG mark. This year's unit checks in at 24.4 PPG (45th) and in allowing only 313.9 YPG, ranks 13th.

The pick: Washington State was 6-0 and ranked 8th in the country after beating Oregon 33-10 on October 7. However, the Cougars were "no-shows" at Cal the following week in a 37-3 loss. Two weeks after that, they gained 653 yards at Arizona, yet lost by 21! Washington was still alive for the Pac-12 North title its final game against Washington (Apple Cup) but were humiliated 41-14. Welcome to Mike Leach's world. This is nothing new! Michigan State will be 'bowling' for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons but head coach Mark Dantonio still feels a bit slighted nationally. When unranked Michigan (the school's biggest rival which lost to the Spartans this year) was selected for a New Year's Day bowl rather than MSU, it didn't sit well. Dantonio got into a bit of a Twitter war with Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh about the perceived snub and many of the Michigan State players made their unhappiness known as well. Something tells me MSU is out to prove something here and Washington St. needs to wash the bitter taste out of its mouth after a second staright embarrassment in the Apple Cup. What's in store? How about an 8* play on the Over.

The set-up: The 7-5 Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 in Big-12) will take on the 6-6 UCLA Bruins (4-5 in Pac-12) in the Cactus Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix. The Wildcats finished the season strong, winning four of their last five games and will be participating in their 8th consecutive bowl game. The Bruins had an up and down season but were able to reach a bowl game after their 30-27 victory over the California Golden Bears on the last weekend of the season. However, after its Nov. 18th loss to USC, UCLA decided to part ways with head coach Jim Mora. The Bruins have already made a big splash with the hire of Chip Kelly but that's for next season, UCLA will be led by interim head coach Jedd Fisch in this one.
Kansas State: QB Jesse Ertz (55.0% for 930 yards with 7 TDs and 3 INTs plus 336 rushing yards with 3 TDs) was lost for the season after just five games. Alex Delton initially took over for Ertz but missed the last three games of the season due to an injury and is currently questionable due to a head injury. That would leave Skylar Thompson, whose 63.2 completion percentage is the best of the three QBs. RB Alex Barnes has 702 yards (5.2 YPC & 6 TDS), leading a solid group which averages 186.7 YPG (41st). The offense is not pretty but KSU comes in averaging 32.1 PPG (37th). Defensively, the Wildcats are allowing 25.8 PPG (60th) on 432.0 YPG (97th).

UCLA: QB Josh Rosen finished the regular season 10th in the FBS in passing yards with 3,717 (62.5% with 26 TDs and 10 INTs) but he has been slowed by injuries the past two seasons and twice was unable to finish a game this fall. He was replaced against California after getting sacked three times in the first half but he has since returned to practice and appears ready to go against Kansas State.
However, while UCLA ranks fifth with 345.3 YPG through the air, no RB has as much as 600 yards rushing and teh etam checks in at q120.3 YPG on teh ground, ranking 120th. The defense is sieve, allowing 36.8 PPG (119th) on 488.8 YPG (123rd).

The pick: Some (many) expected QB Zach Rosen to go the Christian McCaffrey-Leonard Fournette route and opt out of the bowl before his likely early entry into the NFL draft (more than a few believe he's the best prospect) but all indicators are that he’s a go for this game. Why not? The Kansas State pass D is awful, ranking 129th in allowing 310.2 YPG. However, given the coaching situation and distractions in preparation caused by fires in the L.A. area, I'm not all that convinced the Bruins will bring their "A game." Kansas State is making its eighth consecutive bowl appearance -- a streak that is tied for 13th in the FBS -- and its 19th under coach Bill Snyder, who twice has turned the program around, once following a short retirement.I say Under is worth an 8* play.

The set-up: There are few nicer places to spend Christmas Eve than in Hawaii. Sunday night from Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, the 7-4 Houston Cougars will face the 9-4 Fresno State Bulldogs The Houston Cougars won three of their last four games to make it to their fifth consecutive bowl game.As for the Bulldogs, coming off a 1-11 season in 2016, they won the MWC West Division at 7-1 and then lost 17-14 to Boise State in the MWC championship game

Houston: The Cougars own impressive road wins at Arizona (19-16) and South Florida, when Houston ended USF's 12-game winning streak with a 28-24 victory..Houston also lost two "close ones" at home vs.Texas Tech (27-24) and Memphis (42-38). Houston's season has seen them go through three QBs and sophomore D’Eriq King is currently making it seem like "the third time is a charm." He led the comeback win against USF and has completed 73 percent of his passes for 832 yards over the last three games (Cougars won twice and lost by three at Tulane). Houston has a stable of RBs but no standout. The team is averaging a respectable 175.5 YPG on the ground (53rd) and the team's defense has been very solid (23.0 PPG ranks 40th).

Fresno State: Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford has had some "first season." The Bulldogs lost back-to-back games at Alabama and Washington by a combined 63 points in their second and third games, then won four in a row, capped by a dominant 27-3 victory at San Diego State. Tedford’s squad followed the win in San Diego with an ugly home loss to UNLV but closed the regular season with four straight victories, including a 28-17 triumph over Boise State (as noted above, the Bulldogs then lost 17-14 to Boise in the title game). The team's remarkable turnaround has been sparked by a revitalized defense and the arrival of junior quarterback Marcus McMaryion, a transfer from Oregon State who has thrown 14 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. FSU allowed 30.9 PPG on 415 YPG last year but enter this contest allowing 17.2 PPG (9th) on 319.0 YPG (16th).

The pick: Fresno State has not won a bowl game since 2007, when it beat Georgia Tech 40-28 in the Humanitarian Bowl. Its most recent bowl game did not go well, a 30-6 loss to Rice in Hawaii in 2014 that dropped the school to 10-13 in bowl games, going 0-6 ATS in its last six bowl games. Houston is playing in its fifth bowl in a row (2-2 last four) and is 11-13 in bowls, all-time. FSU's defense has been terrific and Houston's is much better than most realize. The play is a 10*!

analysis soon

The set-up: The Akron Zips were a surprise winner of the MAC East but lost 45-28 to Toledo in the MAC championship game, which brings them to the Boca Raton Bowl with a modest 7-6 record. Awaiting the Zips will be the Florida Atlantic Owls, who are looking to complete a remarkable season with a bowl victory and cap of the year with a 10-game win streak. The Owls opened teh 2017 season 1-3 (lost to Navy, Wisconsin and Buffalo), before winning a C-USA East division title at 8-0 record in league play. The Owls ten beat North Texas 41-17 at FIU Stadium (where the Boca Raton Bowl will be played) in the C-USA title game. An interesting storyline comes with this game, as Akron head coach Terry Bowden is the son of Bobby Bowden, the man who made Florida State a two-time national champion plus FAU's Lane Kiffin is the son of Monte Kiffin, recognized as one of football's most creative defensive minds in the game and the father of the "Tampa Cover 2" defense.

Akron: Bowden suspended QB Thomas Woodson and redshirt freshman Kato Nelson scratched out a couple of wins to allow Akron to become bowl-eligible and win its half of the MAC. Woodson returned for the conference title game vs. heavily-favored Toledo but was ineffective, completing only 5 of 14 for 35 yards. Nelson, who started the game and returned in the second half, and third-string Robbie Kelly led a few late TD drives that allowed the Zips to record a backdoor cover. Woodson completed 159 of his 278 pass attempts (57.2%) for 1,777 passing yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs, while Nelson tossed for 909 yards, eight TDs and only two INTs but completed just 48.8 percent of his passes. No RB even gained 400 yards on the season with Akron ranking 118th with 108.5 YPG on the ground. The team averaged only 23.6 PPG (103rd) on just 329.5 YPG (118th) and that hardly bodes well when its defense is allowing 26.3 PPG (60th) and a more troubling 432.3 YPG (98th)

Florida Atlantic: Offense is one aspect of the game everyone concedes Lane Kiffin knows quite a bit about. QB Jason Driskel has completed 65.6% for 1,977 yards with 13 TD passes and four INTs. He's run for 360 yards (5.1 TYPC) with six more TDs. the ground game ranks 6th with 283.1 YPG, leading an offens which averages 39.8 PPG (9th).RB Devin Singletary has had an outstandiung season (1,794 yards (6.5 YPC) and 29 rushing TDs) plus gets help from Howell, who added 690 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and five TDs. The defense is plenty good enough with those kind of offensive numbers, allowing 24.2 PPG (44th).

The pick: Kiffin rarely "makes friends" in the coaching business, as he sure seemed to enjoy former employer Tennessee stumbling all over itself as it searched for a new head coach. However, he's authored a dramatic turnaround in Boca Raton and his Owls are one of the biggest bowl favorites in recent memory. Akron was able to fill one of the 78 available slots simply by competing in the watered-down MAC East and scoring a non-conference win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff. In the Zips’ other three non-conference games, they were limited to 31 total points in losses to bowl-bound Penn State, Iowa State, and Troy State. Expect this to be a somewhat boring game and the 10* play is on the Under.

The set-up: This year's AAC Championship between the 10-1 Memphis Tigers and 11-0 UCF Knights at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando is quite special. Memphis has a chance to win 11 games for the first time in school history while earning its sixth conference title. UCF looks to continue its perfect season while winning the school's fifth conference title. This showdown features the top-two point-producers in college football. Memphis ranks 2nd at 47.0 PPG and UCF 1st at 48.7 PPG. Better yet, the winner will earn a New Year's Six Bowl berth.

Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson is completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 3,500 yards with 32 TDs and eight INTs. Ferguson has two quality RBs playing along with him in Henderson (1,052 YR / 9.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and Taylor (700 YR / 5.8 YPC / 12 TDs). Ferguson has 23 TD passes to go along with only three interceptions since the team's 40-13 loss at UCF in its fourth game of the season, one in which he had three INTs. WR Anthoy Miller (78 catches / 15.5 YPC / 14 TDs) holds almost every school receiving record. On the entire season, defense has been an issue for Memphis, which comes into this contest allowing 30.8 PPG on 453.5 YPG (112th).

UCF: QB McKenzie Milton can match Ferguson, completing 69.1% for 3,301 yards with 30 TDs and six INTs. Memphis has the best RBs on the field but UCF's backfield depth has allowed them to average 198.9 YPG rushing, just a few YPG less than Memphis (202.5). The real edge UCF owns in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. The Knights allow more than a TD less per game (22.5) and just over 50 YPG less, at 399.0 per. Then there is also the Knights' 27 takeaways (17 INTs / 10 fumble recoveries), which leaves then tied with Miami-Fl. for the national lead with a plus-17 turnover margin.

The pick: Memphis is seeking to avenge a 40-13 blowout loss at this same venue in Orlando back on Sep. 30 but note UCF leads this series 10-1 and is 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings against Memphis. What changes here? Probably nothing but so much is at stake in this contest, that I believe that with this super-high over/under number, the under is the play. UCF owns a very good defense and Memphis has allowed fewer than 15 points in two of its last three game. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The 114th edition of the Egg Bowl will be contested Thanksgiving night in Starkville when 5-6 Ole Miss (2-5 SEC) takes on 8-3 Mississippi State (4-3 SEC). The Rebels need a win to become eligible but in fact, will be playing their final game of the season as a result of a self-imposed postseason ban, which came in February after the NCAA found the program committed multiple violations under former coach Hugh Freeze. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs were ranked 14th in the latest CFP rankings and are hoping to improve their bowl status with a victory. Ole Miss guaranteed itself its second straight non-winning season after losing at home to Texas A&M 31-24 the last time out, while Miss. St. reached eight wins for the fifth time in Mullen's nine seasons with that 28-21 win at Arkansas.

Ole Miss: The Rebels couldn't hold onto a 24-21 halftime lead against the Aggies and the seven-point loss snapped a two-game win streak. Junior QB Jordan Ta'amu moved into the starting role in mid-October after Shea Patterson (2,259 YP / 17-9 ratio) was lost to a season-ending injury. He compl eted 19 of 34 passes for 189 yards with two TDs (one interception) and enters completing 69.5% with nine TD and three INTs. A.J. Brown has 69 catches for 1,085 yards with 10TDs and RB Wilkins has 901 YR (6.4 YPC) and seven TDs. The offense averages 33.0 PPG (37th) but the defense ranks 114th in both points allowed (35.2 per game) and yards allowed (455.7 YPG).

Mississippi State: QB Fitzgerald extended his own SEC record for 100-yard rushing games by a QB to 14 after rushing for 101 against the Razorbacks and needs only 52 more yards to move past ex-Bulldog Dak Prescott (2,521) and into third place on the conference's all-time rushing list from a signal-caller. He has 1,770 passing yards (15-10 ratio) but is most dangerous running the ball, with a team-high 968 yards (6.1 YPC / 14 TDs). He and RB Williams 944 YR / 4.6 YPC) lead a rushing game averaging 245.5 YPG (17th), The Bulldogs average 32.5 PPG (39th), about the same as Ole Miss, but the huge difference comes on the defensive side of the ball. Miss. St. allows 19.5 PPG (20th) on 297.2 YPG (9th).

The pick: Tensions are always high when Mississippi and Mississippi State collide but this week's meeting seems even more intense than normal. In fact, the athletic directors from both schools sent out a request to fans, hoping to prevent emotions from boiling over on Thursday night. "In the spirit of sportsmanship, we ask that fans from both schools honor this storied rivalry with civility and respect for each other," Ole Miss athletic director Ross Bjork and Mississippi State athletic director John Cohen wrote in a joint statement. Fitzgerald accounted for 367 total yards, including a school-record 258 yards on the ground, and five total TDs (three passing / two rushing) in last year's 55-20 thrashing of Ole Miss, allowing Mississippi State to avenge a defeat in 2015 and take home the Golden Egg Trophy for the fifth time in eight tries under coach Dan Mullen. I also like the way QB Jordan Ta'amu has filled in for Patterson, so I expect a shootout. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: A pair of 2-5 MAC schools will conclude their respective 2017 seasons Tuesday night at Rynearson Stadium when the Eastern Michigan Eagles host the Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green is hoping to end the year on a positive note after suffering a humiliating 66-37 defeat at the hands of the Toledo Rockets (a bitter rival) as a 17-point home dog in its last contest. The Falcons trailed just 24-21 at the half but were outscored 35-16 over the final two quarters. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan is aiming for back-to-back wins following a 27-24 victory at the Miami (Ohio).

Bowling Green: Mike Jinks' second season at BG is coming to a close and it hasn't been pretty. After going 4-8 SU & ATS in his first season, the Falcons have been even worse in 2017, entering this final game 2-9 SU & ATS. Doing the math, that's 6-17 SU & ATS mark. The Falcons don't have much of an offense (24.8 PPG ranks 92nd) and the defense is dreadful, allowing 38.4 PPG (124th) on 519.5 YPG (127th).

Eastern Michigan: The Eagles, like the Falcons are just 2-5 in MAC play but they have two more wins (4-7, overall) and more importantly, are a money-making 8-3 ATS. EMU's offense is no better than BG's (averaging 25.4 PPG) but on the defensive side of the ball, Eastern Michigan has allowed 22.6 PPG (37th) on 355.7 YPG (32nd).

The pick: Eastern Michigan won 28-25 at Bowling Green in last year's matchup but that was just the Eagles' second win in 13 games since 1990 (both victories were by just three points). Meanwhile, Bowling Green's 11 wins in that span have come by an average margin of 19 PPG. However, the current Bowling Green team makes it impossible to back the Falcons here in 2017. Then again, the Falcons have played way better on offense since freshman Jarrett Doege has taken over. Doege has completed 59 of 91 (64.8%) in his three starts, throwing for 738 yards with nine TD passes and just one INT. BG has averaged 36.3 PPG in that span. However, as noted, EMU's defense is the reason the team is 8-3 ATS. Let me also note that the last six Bowling Green games have averaged 73.0 PPG, with all "going over." Enough already! I say play UNDER and make it a 10*.

The set-up: Notre Dame's CFP hopes were likely dashed when the team lost last Saturday night in Miami, 41-8 to the Hurricanes. The 8-2 Fighting Irish (now No.9 in the CFP rankings) will try to pick up the pieces this Saturday afternoon, when they welcome the Navy Midshipmen to South Bend. Navy ended a two-game slide with last Saturday's 43-40 win over SMU, although once again the Midshipmen struggled with inconsistency. Against SMU, Navy coughed up a 34-11 halftime before winning on a FG on the game's final play. Navy payed in last year's AAC championship game but this year's team is a more modest 6-3 overall, including just 4-3 in the AAC West.

Navy: The Midshipmen won the yardage battle 559-426 with EVERY yard coming on the ground. QB Malcolm Perry threw just ONE pass and it was intercepted. However, Perry ran for 282 yards and four TDs. RB Anthony Gargiulo ran for 145 yards and a TD but Navy did little or nothing in the second half. Perry adds more speed than Abey and showed it off last Saturday. However, Perry injured his ankle toward the end of the win and could find himself back on the sidelines this weekend. Navy is still shuffling through its QB options. "Zach will definitely be back in the mix and I'll turn this back over to (quarterbacks coach Ivin Jasper)," Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo told reporters. "We'll have to discuss it as a staff and see where we're at. We have to find out Malcolm's health and Zach's health." Regardless of the QB, Navy ranks first in the nation at 369.8 YPG on the ground.

Notre Dame: The Irish rank 6th in rushing (303.2 YPG) bu had just 109 rushing yards vs. Miami. Josh Adams (1,231 YR / 8.0 YPC / 10 TDs) totaled 40 yards on 16 carries. QB Brandon Wimbush completed only 10-of-21 for 119 yards and a touchdown but threw a pair of interceptions, including a 65-yard "pick six." He was also was limited to 24 yards rushing and a lost fumble on 11 carries. Ian Book was no relief, as he connected on 3 of 6 for 33 yards and another interception. Both were overwhelmed by the situation. However, we know Navy's D in no way resembles Miami's. The offense comes in averaging 38.0 PPG (15th) but the defense allows just 20.7 PPG (30th).

The pick: Let's repeat: Navy leads all FBS teams in rushing yards per game (369.8) while Notre Dame ranks sixth (303.2). The clock will be running all game in this one. Navy's win last Saturday to become bowl eligible for the 14th time in the last 15 seasons. With that accomplished, Navy hopes to add a "signature win." Notre Dame can't help but be somewhat flat after the 'Canes 'killed' its Final 4 hopes and don't forget, "the clock will be running all game!" Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The Toledo Rockets will travel about 25 miles down I-75 to Doyt Perry Stadium to take on the Bowling Green Falcons this Wednesday night in MAC play. The Rockets lost badly at Ohio U last Wednesday (38-10), dropping them to 8-2 (5-1 in MAC West play) on the season. The good news is, Toledo had beaten Northern Illinois 27-17 in its previous game, so the Rockets still control their destiny in the MAC West, as they own the tie-breaker over the Huskies, who are also 5-1. Bowling Green lost a week ago Tuesday 38-28 at Buffalo and enter this contest against its long-time rival just 2-8 (2-4 in the MAC East).

Toledo: The Rockets only trailed the Bobcats 10-7 at the half last week but got rolled in the second half and by game's end got out-gained 532-to-316 in total yards (Ohio U ran for 393 yards!). The Rockets are averaging 36.1 PG (25th) with a balanced offense (294.0 YPG passing and 205.3 YPG on the ground). QB Logan Woodsid has completed 64.8% of his passes on the season for 2,912 yards with 20 TDs and two INTs. The ground game ranks 31st in the nation, led by a trio of RBs, Swanson (854 YR / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), Seymour (544 YR / 6.6 YPC) and Thompson (466 YR / 5.5 YPC). Swandson's banged up but that's the beauty of the team's at the RB position. The defense imploded last week in Athens but that's not typical, as despite that effort Toledo comes in allowing 25.8 PPG to rank 60th (there are 130 FBS schools).

Bowling Green: The Falcons fought back after trailing by a 21-7 margin at the end of the 1st quarter, last week at Buffalo but the Bulls held on for a 10-point win. The Falcons were out-gained by Bulls by a 582-394 margin, something which has become familiar. BG averages only 23.6 PPG (98th) on 380.8 YPG, while allowing 35.6 PPG on 507.8 YPG (127th). Freshman Jarret Doege is the latest QB for struggling BG and he completed 28 of 43 passes for 294 yards and three TDs. However, when the defense allows 38 points on 582 yards, improved QB play doesn't mean all that much.

The pick: Toledo holds its fate in its hands and needs only to beat struggling BG and then Western Michigan (at home) in its season-finale, to earn a place in the MAC title game. Mike Jinks is 6-16 SU and ATS in his second season at Bowling Green and it's unlikely even the presence of a bitter rival like Toledo will be enough for the Falcons to earn a "W." However, I like what I see from Doege and while the BG defense will be all but helpless against Toledo's well-balanced offense (ready to roll after last week's 10-point effort), That said, expect Doege to help BG to put points on the board, as well. Make the Over a 10* play.

The setup: The Penn State Nittany Lions coughed up a 15-point fourth quarter at Ohio State on Oct. 28 and then lost last Saturday 27-24 at Michigan State. Penn State was No. 2 in the AP poll before the the loss to Ohio State but after opening No. 7 in the first CFP rankings, now checks in at No. 14, with almost no hope of reaching the Big Ten championship game. The 7-2 Nittany Lions (4-2 in the Big Ten) will host the 4-5 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-3 in Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium. Penn State has beaten Rutgers the last two seasons 28-3 and 39-0, giving them a 25-2 advantage in the all-time series.

Rutgers: Chris Ash had a 'nightmare' first year at Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights went 2-10, including 0-9 in the Big Ten. However, the Scarlet Knights look for their fourth win in last five tries in this game, hoping to get back to a .500 record. This year's offense is only marginally better, averaging 22.6 PPG (105th), which is up from 15.7 PPG but the defense has made major strides. Rutgers allowed 37.5 PPG in 2016 but here in 2017 the Scarlet Knights are allowing 24.9 PPG (33rd). RB Gus Edwards ran for 109 yards against the Terrapins and hauled in the decisive 23-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter as the Scarlet Knights won 31-24. The team is now within two victories of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. Rutgers has won three of its last four, covering each of its last four games.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions have seen a promising season derailed by back-to-back narrow road losses and will try to take out their frustration at home against an improving Rutgers squad on Saturday. Penn State needs a victory here in order to avoid its first three-game losing streak since the end of the 2015 season. QB Trace McSorley is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 2,452 yards with 19 TDs and eight interceptions. RB Saquon Barkley was the early Heisman favorite but he has fewer than 20 rushes in three of his last four games, including a season low-tying 14 last week. Is Barkley really a dynamic RB? The Lions have managed to rush for only 156 yards on 56 carries over the last two weeks, as a team. Defensively, Penn State is allowing 14.8 PPG (7th) on 331.4 YPG (25th) but in back-to-back losses, Penn State's D has allowed 65 points (32.5 per) on 1,003 yards (501.5 per).

The pick: Consecutive road losses have doomed Penn State’s championship aspirations but Rutgers’ defense is allowing 5.6 YPC, so I expect Barkley to break out of his two-game "mini-slump." The over is 13-6 in the Nittany Lions last 19 conference games and I say make it 14-6. The Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos welcome the Kent State Golden Flashes to Kalamazoo in another Wednesday night football game in the MAC. Western Michigan lost to in-state rival Central Michigan 35-28 at home last Wednesday but at 5-4 (3-2 in the MAC West), the Broncos are just one win away from being bowl-eligible for the fourth consecutive season. As for Kent State, the Golden Flashes were embarrassed at home a week ago Tuesday, losing at home 44-16 to Bowling Green. Kent is now 2-7, including 1-4 in the MAC East.

Kent State: Bowling Green was not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS heading into last Tuesday's game at Kent State. The Falcons were averaging only 20.5 PPG but scored 44 points on yards, including 251 rushing yards. To say the least, it was a low point for Kent State's season. Actually, Kent State's entire season has been a low point, as the not so-Golden Flashes rank dead-last (130th) in scoring at 10.7 PPG and 129th in total yards at 253.4 per game. When one's defense allows 34.1 PPG (107th) on 436.3 YPG (102nd), one's offense has to score more than 10-plus PPG!

Western Michigan: The Broncos were 13-1 last year under P.J. Fleck but he's now 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota. The Broncos suffered a tough loss last week at home to Central Michigan, blowing a 21-7 halftime lead in which the Broncos had out-gained the Chippewas 269-82 (CMU had just two FDs at the half!). Western Michigan's Jarvion Franklin fumbled early in the fourth quarter and Jonathan Ward pulled Central Michigan to 28-21 on a 29-yard touchdown run. CMU blocked a punt on Western Michigan's next possession and Ward's 35-yard run on first down set up Eric Cooper's touchdown grab in the end zone to tie it at 28 with 5:50 left. CMU got the ball back with 2:47 left at its 23 and QB Shane Morris threw a 77-yard touchdown pass to Corey Willis with 2:37 remaining. Western Michigan turned it over on downs near midfield and Ward ran for a first down to run out the clock. The loss of starting QB Wassink has certainly been a blow to WMU but Bronco RB Franklin’s 228 YR in loss vs. Central Mich bodes well against Kent State rush D allowing 5.4 YPC.

The pick: With KSU's pathetic offense, going over may seem risky but I did just that last week in the BG/KSU game. I'll 'go to the well' again here while noting that the over is 10-2 in Western Michigan's last 12 home games. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: Arizona ended September at 2-2, losing a pair of home games to Houston and Utah by a single possession. Following a bye week, the Wildcats traveled to Colorado on Oct. 7, where QB Brandon Dawkins was flung into the sidelines on the game's opening drive. Dawkins was pulled and sophomore Khalil Tate entered the lineup. Four games, four wins and an unprecedented four straight Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors later, Tate has not relinquished the job. He leads Arizona in rushing with 926 yards on just 69 carries and has eight rushing TDs while passing for 784 yards and six more TDs. USC head coach Clay Helton said about the move to Tate, "It changed the dynamic of their team." He should know. USC closed September last season at 1-3, before a QB change to Sam Darnold ignited a nine-game winning streak that closed the campaign. The two schools meet in the LA Coliseum with the pac-12 South division lead on the line, as USC is 5-1 and Arizona, 4-1.

Arizona: Tate is a "force of nature," leading Arizona's rushing attack which is averaging 339.2 YPG (5th). The Wildcats are averaging 45.0 PPG (3rd) on the season, including 48.8 PPG in the school's current four-game winning streak. Defensively, Arizona is allowing opponents to average 30.2 PPG (88th) on 453.0 YPG (112th). which includes 300.6 YPG through the air (128th). Helping out the poor defensive numbers is the fact that Arizona has forced 19 turnovers on the season!

USC: The Trojans have been a minor disappointment and QB Sam Darnold has been a major one. He was Heisman-favorite and there was talk that he could be the next overall No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, after throwing 31 TDs with just nine iNTs in 2016, he already has 10 INTs this season with 20 TD passes. USC has escaped against Texas in two OTs and against Utah by one-point, plus has lost at Washington State and got creamed at Notre Dame. USC averages 33.7 PPG but allows 25.8 and its 2-7 ATS record speaks volumes regarding the team's status as an underachiever in 2017.

The pick: The depth-shy Trojan D has struggled with dual-threat QBs and right now, is there a better one than Arizona's Tate. However, there's little reason to trust Arizona's D, especially its pass D, which figures to easy pickins' for Darnold. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: It's MACtion on Wednesday night from Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, Mi. when the 5-3 Western Michigan Broncos host the 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas. The Chippewas kept their bowl hopes alive with a 56-9 rout at Ball State Cardinals on Oct. 21, reaching .500 at 4-4 on the season (2-2 in the MAC West). The Broncos also won on Oct. 21, edging the Eastern Michigan Eagles 20-17 in OT on the road. That gives WMU a 3-1 conference mark but the Broncos are still looking up at a pair of 4-0 teams in the West, Toledo and Northern Illinois.

Central Michigan: Head coach John Bonamego has taken the Chippewas to consecutive bowl games in his first two seasons (lost them both) and Central Michigan is still technically still alive for the MAC title but that's a long-shot. However, the team needs just two wins in its final four games to become bowl-eligible here in 2017. QB Shane Morris completed 16 of 21 for 199 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the rout of Ball State but he's completing a modest 56.7 percent on the season with 16 TDs and 11 INTs. The offense is mediocre at best, averaging 25.8 PPG (83rd). Defensively, CMU is allowing 27.0 PPG (73rd).

Western Michigan: Tim Lester is in his first season at WMU, with P.J. Fleck 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota, these days. Western Michigan had won four straight games, after its 71-68 seven-overtime win over Buffalo on Oct. 7. However, that win may have taken something out of the Broncos, who fell to Akron, 14-13 at home in their next game. Then came the 20-17 OT win at EMU, a game in which they lost starting QB Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone. Wassink was injured with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter and true freshman Reece Goddard entered the game. Ultimately, Goddard led the Broncos to the game-winning FG drive in overtime

The pick: QB Morris is off his best game of the season (see above) plus the CMU running game had its best effort of the season vs. the Cardinals, running for a season-high 256 yards. The Chippewas are an impressive 15-5 ATS theri last 20 MAC road games, which goes well with the fact that the road team is on a 5-0 run in this series. The WMU defense is no bargain (allows 27.69 PPG to rank 79th) but I'm not sold on CMU slowing the WMU offense either, even without Wassink behind center. The Broncos have won the last three in this series, averaging 40.7 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: It's the final day of October and two struggling MAC teams take the field on Halloween night, with the 1-7 Bowling Green Falcons visiting the 2-6 Kent State Golden Flashes. Both schools are 1-3 in MAC play (East Division), with each owning wins over Miami-Ohio (ironically, Miami is 2-2 in MAC play). Bowling Green comes in 1-7 SU and ATS and Kent State at 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. Bowling Green has won the last four meetings with Kent and owns a commanding 59-19-6 advantage in the all-time series.

Bowling Green: Mike Jinks is in just his second season at Bowling Green and is not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS, as well. Bowling Green averages just 20.5 PPG on offense, while its defese allows 37.8 PPG (120th) on 526.5 YPG (127th). James Morgan started the last seven games of the 2016 season at QB for Bowling Green and was instrumental in the Falcons’ three-game winning streak to end the season. It was expected hat he would build on that performance but the exact opposite has been the case. He's completed just 45.3 percent of his passes with nearly as many interceptions (seven) as TD passes (nine). Morgan was benched in favor of freshman Jarrett Doege, who relieved Morgan in a 49-7 loss at Northwestern and then made his first start the following week at Middle Tennessee. He showed good accuracy (63.5 percent completion rate) and had some success running the offense but then suffered a back injury in his second start against Akron. Morgan took over and led the Falcons to a 37-29 victory on the road against Miami (Ohio) in the next game, but gave way to another freshman, Grant Loy, in last week’s 48-17 blowout home loss to Northern Illinois. What's the ext move?

Kent State: The Golden Flashes lost 48-3 on Oct. 21 at Ohio U, getting out-gained 474-166 in yards. It was nothing new for a team which ranks 130th (dead-last!) among all FBS teams by averaging 10.0 PPG. Kent State averages only 249.6 YPG, which ranks 129th. The defense checks in allowing 32.9 PPG (102nd) on 437.8 YPG (100th). Take away the 38 points the Golden Flashes scored in their win over Howard (FCS) and they have scored a total of 42 points against seven FBS teams, which is 6.0 PPG!.

The pick: OK, so the play is under, right? As the saying goes, "not so fast!" These two schools have plenty of history together (see above) and note that Bowling Green's 59 wins are the most for the Falcons over any other opponent in program history. Bowling Green also has won four in a row over Kent State, averaging 40.3 PPG. The Falcons will nedd some help from the Golden Flashes but not all that much. Bowling Green’s defensive issues should give the Golden Flashes a chance to at least move the ball and go above their scoring average. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Cowboys were held under 41 points for the first time last Saturday at Texas but were able to escape with a 13-10 OT win over the Longhorns, keeping the team's CFP hopes alive. The 11th-ranked Cowboys are 6-1 overall (3-1 in the Big 12) and will travel to Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown to take on the 22nd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-2 overall and also 3-1 in Big 12 play. The series is tied at 4-all but OSU has won the last two years, 37-20 and 33-26 (OT).

Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph already owns 30 school records and enters this contest leading the nation in passing yards (2,650) and passing yards per game (378.6). He's completed 161-of-242 attempts (66.5 percent) for 19 TDs and four INTs. He's backed by an solid rushing game (197.4 YPG which ranks 38th), led by RB Hill (750 YR / 5.4 YPC). OSU averages 43.7 PPG (3rd) on 590.1 YPG (1st). Defensively, OSU allows 22.3 PPG (43rd) on 359.7 YPG (41st), and the team's stop unit "saved the day" against Texas. The Longhorns were held to just 10 points on 283 yards, while converting only 3 of 17 third down attempts.

West Virginia: QB Will Grier has the misfortune of playing in the same conference as Heisman Trophy contenders like Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph. However, Grier is some talent, completing 66.3 percent with 26 TDs and just five INTs, leading West Va to rank 4th in passing YPG at 364.0. Grier's favorite target is WR David Sills V, once a highly touted prep QB prospect himself, who leads the nation with 15 TD receptions. RB Crawford (639 YR / 6.1 YPC / 7 TDs) offers nice balance, with West Va/ checking in averaging 43.3 PPG (4th) on 540.1 YPG (5th). Defensively, West Va. allows 29.0 PPG (85th) on 450.0 YPG (12th).

The pick: The QB matchup commands the spotlight plus WR James Washington of OSU (leads the nation with an average of 24.1 YPC and his 32 career receiving TDs is tops among all active FBS players) will not want to accept "second-billing" to West Virginia's David Sills V (see above). Oklahoma State returns home next Saturday for "Bedlam" with Oklahoma but that game won't hold much importance if the Cowboys lose here. Yes, these are two offensive juggernauts but I've 'made a living:" playing these high totals under, all season. Second verse, same as the first. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal opened the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but after losing badly at USC 42-24 in its second game of the season and following with a 201-7 loss at San Diego State, the Cardinal's season was headed for big trouble. However, led by spectacular RB Bryce Love (198.1 YPG rushing on 10.3 YPC and 11 TDs), Stanford has won four in a row while averaging 41.0 PPG. The now 20th-ranked Cardinal will travel to Reser Stadium in Corvallis on Thursday night to take on the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State is 1-6, beating only Portland State and that win came just 35-32 here at home.

Stanford: The Cardinal last played on Oct. 14th, a 49-7 rout on the road at Oregon. The Cardinal out-gained the Ducks by a 504-309 margin. Love had 147 yards and two TDs and QB Kellar Chryst was back healthy, throwing for 181 yards (15 of 21) with three TDs. Three Stanford QBs have combined for 11 TDs and three INTs but Chryst in the best of the bunch. Stanford's defense has not allowed more than 22.6 PPG in any of the last seven seasons, allowing 19 PPG or less, four times. This year the Cardinal are allowing 22.0 PPG (42nd) but on 416.9 YPG to rank 89th (unusually high for a Stanford team).

Oregon State: I noted above that OSU only owns one win, that unimpressive three-point victory over Portland, which was back on Sep. 2nd. The Beavers have since lost five in a row and a head coach as well, in Gary Andersen. Andersen stepped down on Oct. 9 after the Beavers dropped five of their first six games by an average of 31.4 PPG. Interim head coach Cory Hall's first game was Oregon State's most competitive since beating Portland State by three points on Sept. 2, but the Beavers fell to Colorado 36-33 on Oct. 14. Oregon State held a 33-29 lead with 4:22 left in that game but the Beaver defense were unable to hold the lead as Colorado scored on a 13-yard TD pass with just 1:34 left in regulation. The Beavers actually out-gained the Buffaloes by a 569-385 margin. Leading the way for Oregon State was RB Ryan Nall who carried the ball 24 times for 172 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, Oregon State is a mess, allowing a whopping 43.7 PPG (128th) on 478.3 (117th).

The pick: Expect RB Love and a now-healthy QB Chyrst to have their way against OSU's defense but also note that Satnford's D is a little 'off' in 2017, especially against the run, allowing 196.3 YPG on the ground (98th) on 5.0 YPC. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) Oklahoma State Cowboys are ranked 10th in the latest AP poll and travel to Austin to play the (3-3, 2-1 Big 12) Texas Longhorns at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. OSU brings the nation's No. 1 offense (617.2 YPG) and its No. 2 scoring offense (48.8 PPG) into the contest, after gaining a school-record 747 yards in a 59-16 rout of Baylor last Saturday. The Longhorns are off their annual Red River Showdown against Oklahoma, a game in which Texas rebound from a 23-10 deficit to take a 24-23 4th-quarter lead, only to lose 29-24.

Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph is completing 66.7 percent with 19 TDs and just four INTs, with OSU leading the nation with 411.2 YPG through the air. Considering how "pass-happy" the offense is, it's impressive that the Cowboys are also averaging 199.5 YPG on the ground (on 5.4 YPC), led by RB Hill's 633 yards on 6.0 YPC. With the kind of numbers OSU's offense puts up, the defense has to be good but not great. That's a fair description for an OSU stop-unit that's allowing 24.3 PPG (56th).

Texas: Steve Buechele opened the season as Texas' starting QB but it was freshman Sam Ehlinger who led the comeback against Texas. He's completing just 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,178 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions but does have has at least one TD pass in all four of his games this season. Of greater importance is his ability to run, as Ehlinger has rushed for 217 yards (5.2 YPC) in the Longhorns' last two games. He will start in this one, leading an offense averaging 33.7 PPG (41st). Defensively, Texas is allowing 24.7 PPG on 381.5 YPG but it's hard to ignore the 518 yards it allowed last Saturday to Oklahoma, a team with a similar QB to Rudolph, in Baker Mayfield.

The pick: Oklahoma State was a trendy pick to make the four-team College Football Playoff but that was before it was upset at home 44-31 by TCU back on Sep. 23. TCU is now the leader of the pack in the Big 12 and currently ranks 4th in the latest AP poll. OSU is quite 'dead' yet but the Cowboys no longer have any margin of error. The Longhorns hold a 24-7 series lead over Oklahoma State and a 15-5 advantage in Austin but the Cowboys have put their mark on the series by winning five of the past seven meetings. In fact, after losing 15 of 16 times in Austin, the Cowboys have won the last four meetings in Austin, marking the longest winning streak against Texas at home by one team. Here's the catch though, Tom Herman’s Houston & Texas teams are a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog! Best way to go here is an 8* on the Over, as the Texas D won't be able to stop Rudolph and Co, while Ehlinger's dual-threat ability will allow Texas to score as well.

The set-up: Western Kentucky opened 1-2 but enter Friday's game on a three-game winning streak (but just 1-2 ATS). The Hilltoppers go for their 4th straight win with a visit to the Old Dominion Monarchs, who are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Both schools reside in the East Division of C-USA, with Western Ky sitting at 2-1 and ODU at 0-2.

Western Kentucky: Jeff Brohm took over at Western Ky when Bobby Petrino left for Louisville and led the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths. Western Ky won all three of those bowl games, although Brohm took the Purdue job prior to last year's bowl win. Mike Sanford Jr. is a first-time head coach and his offense has averaged only 25.5 PPG (87th), after Brohm's three teams averaged 44.4, 44.3 and 45.5 PPG. However, the defense allows a modest 18.2 PPG (19th) on 340.5 YPG (34th). In comparison, Western Ky had allowed 25.9 and 24.6 PPG the last two seasons.

Old Dominion: Monarch fans may already be looking ahead to the start of basketball season. The offense stinks, averaging 17.0 PPG (123rd) on 287.3 YPG (126th). The defense is no better, allowing 34.7 PPG (110th) on 436.8 YPG (103rd). ODU has a freshman QB in Steven Williams and RBs Ray Lawry (back healthy) and Jeremy Cox have underachieved.

The pick: Western Kentucky is coming off a 45-16 victory versus the Charlotte 49ers on Saturday and while the Hilltoppers didn't run the ball well, QB Mike White completed 33 of 47 for 398 yards with five TDs. I realize this is not the Western Ky offense of the last three seasons but these two schools have met just three times, all coming these last three season. Western Ky has won all three, with the final scores being 59-24, 55-30 and 66-51. Doing the math, that's an average final of 95.0 PPG. Yes, make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal began the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out after back-to-back road losses at USC (42-24) and San Diego State (20-17). However, the Cardinal eked out a 20-17 win at Utah (then ranked 20th) last Saturday, giving them a third straight win. Stanford is back in the top-25 (at No. 23) and will welcome the 4-2 Oregon Ducks to Stanford Stadium on Saturday night. Both teams are 4-2 but while Stanford is 3-1 in Pac 12 play, Oregon is just 1-2.

Oregon: The Ducks opened the season 3-0 but have lost two of three conference games, after falling 33-10 at home last Saturday to Washington State (Cougars are currently ranked 8th). New head coach Willie Taggart lost starting QB Sean Hebert (9 TDs and 2 INTs, while completing 68.3 %) early on in Oregon's 45-24 home win over Cal and on Sep. 30. Braxton Burmeister has stepped in to complete 57.1 percent of his passes for 149 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Burmeister enters this game with just 28 career pass attempts under his belt. The running game averages a healthy 239.3 YPG (20th) and the Ducks enter this contest averaging 43.0 PPG (11th). The defense has allowed just 338.3 YPG (29th) but allows 27.2 PPG, to rank 76th.

Stanford: There's a saying that goes when a team has two starting QBs, it often has none. Keller Chryst and K.J. Costello have combined for seven touchdown passes and two interceptions this season but Stanford averages only 188.3 YPG through the air (93rd). However, Stanford just may have the nation's best RB in Bryce Love, who leads the way with 1,240 yards (10.5 YPC) and nine TDs. As a team, Stanford ranks 14th in rushing yards at 260.0 YPG. The D allows 434.8 YPG (102nd) but somehow has held opponents to a modest 24.5 PPG (55th).

The pick: Burmeister was a highly-touted QB coming in and should be much better here, in his second start. That Stanford defense has given up way too many yards to keep opponents under 25 points. Let's remember that Oregon was the nation's highest-scoring team heading into last Saturday's home game against Washington State but true freshman Burmeister struggled in his first start, with Oregon getting hammered 33-10 by the Cougars 33-10. The usually supportive crowd at Autzen Stadium booed the Ducks, so being on the road this weekend may be a blessing. Oregon's rush D has been outstanding so far but that D hasn't seen the likes of Stanford's Love. These teams have scored 74 and 78 points in meetings the last two seasons and this over/number comes in way too low. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns will meet Saturday at the Cotton Bowl on ESPN for the latest edition of the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners will 'limp in' off yet another shocking early-to-mid-season loss. "Big Game Bob" may be gone, but Oklahoma's penchant for losing games that it should win, is still "alive and well." Oklahoma climbed as high as No. 2 in the rankings after beating Ohio State on the road Sep. 9, but the Sooners have struggled in three games since, winning the first two (1-1 ATS) before last week's 'ugly' 38-31 loss to Iowa State in Norman, where Oklahoma closed as a 31-point favorite. It marks the SEVENTH consecutive season in which the Sooners have lost as a double-digit favorite. Tom Herman became a star in two years at Houston and was a 'natural' for the Texas job. The Longhorns opened the season ranked in the AP's preseason poll but promptly lost at home 51-41 to Maryland, as an 18-point favorite. However, the Longhorns have rebounded well, going 3-1 since, with their only loss being a 27-24 double-OT defeat at USC. Texas holds a 61-45-5 lead in the series, which began in 1900 and has been played at the Texas State Fair annually since 1929. Herman and Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley will be making their head coaching debuts in the Red River Showdown, marking the first time since 1947, when Blair Cherry's Longhorns beat Bud Wilkinson's Sooners, 34-14, that the rivalry has featured new coaches on both sidelines.

Oklahoma: QB Baker Mayfield completed 70.9% last season with 40 TDs and eight INTs. He's been just as good so far in 2017 (better?), completing 74.6% with 15 TDs and not a single INT in 134 pass attempts. Oklahoma ranks fifth in passing yards (3984.4 per) and secnd in total offense (587.0 YPG), while scoring 44.6 PPG (6th). The defense has been adequate, allowing 23.2 PPG (46th) on 356.0 YPG (44th). However, that's after allowing an average of 486 yards and 39.5 points over its last two games against Baylor and Iowa State? For Lincoln Riley (Stoops' replacement), this game will be HUGE. "I think in the past after a tough loss -- we haven't had many around here -- but when we've had them, we've been able to respond regardless of who we've played," Riley said. "I would hope that we have enough pride -- and I feel we do have enough pride as a team -- that we'd be motivated to go play Norman Junior High this week."

Texas: It won't be Norman Junior High this week for Riley and Oklahoma but rather Texas. You can assured that Tom Herman knows what this game means. What happens here, could set the tone for the remainder of the Longhorns' season. Herman has been coy about who his starting QB will be after sophomore starter Shane Buechele missed the Kansas State victory with a sprained ankle, with freshman Sam Ehlinger passing for 380 yards and two TDs, while also rushing for 107 more Saturday. Buechele is a good QB but many think Ehlinger has proven to be much more than valuable backup. The Texas defense has "picked itself up" after that embarrassing opening 51-41 loss to Maryland, allowing just 17.0 PPG the last four games (down to 23.8 PPG on the season).

The pick: Oklahoma lost another game as a double-digit favorite, so what else is new? However, here's a stat one can't ignore. The Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, Bob Stoops' first season in Norman (that's a long time!). Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in a school-record 15 consecutive games and go back and check out Mayfield's numbers this season (see above). The Sooners will be tough to keep off the scoreboard in this one but I also believe the Longhorns offense will "come to play." Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Sun Belt Conference takes 'center stage' for a second straight night, as the Texas State Bobcats go on the road to face the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns in a Thursday night matchup on ESPNU (South Alabama played at Troy Wednesday night on ESPN2). Texas State is 1-5 (0-2 in SBC play) and ULL is 2-3 (1-1 in SBC play). Texas State is off 3-9 and 2-10 season, so a 1-5 start is no surprise. ULL went 6-6 in the 2016 regular season, then lost 28-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. BTW, ULL has played in the New Orleans Bowl five times since 2011, winning four in a row before last year's loss (ULL went 4-8 in 2015).

Texas State: The Bobcats won their 2017 opener 20-11 over Houston Baptist but have lost five in a row since, failing to cover the last three. Texas State lost 45-27 to visiting UL-Monroe in its last game, allowing 589 overall yards, including 433 through the air. The Bobcats scored 20 points in the first quarter but just seven points the rest of the way. The team's offense has been awful, scoring only 14.5 PPG (125th) on 300.7 YPG (124th). The defense has collapsed the last three games, allowing 44, 45 and 45 points. It comes in allowing 33.7 PPG on the season (106th), on 410.8 YPG (87th).

Louisiana-Lafayette: The Ragin’ Cajuns won 21-16 as a six point road underdog last Saturday at Idaho, the team's first ATS win of the season. ULL averages 37.0 PPG (29th) on 418.2 YPG (60th) but the team's defense is a mess, allowing 46.2 PPG (129th) on 506.6 YPG (125th). These defense numbers are this bad despite the fact that ULL held Idaho to just 16 points on 279 yards last Saturday.

The pick: As I continue point out, I've consistently won in 2017 by going under high totals. That's not exactly the case here but like with Idaho, the Texas State offense (averaging only 14.5 PPG) is one ULL's defense can handle. I'm making the Under a 10* play.

The set-up: Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) will host Maryland (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday. Urban Meyer leads his No. 10 Buckeyes against one of his former assistants for the second week in row, this time around it's D.J. Durkin. This is Durkin's second season at Maryland and the Terps opened the season with a win a shocking 51-41 win Texas (+18) and have also added a 31-24 road win at Minnesota last Saturday (as a two-TD dog), to open Big Ten play. Maryland doesn't appear to be as over-matched as the 6-7 team that was clobbered 62-3 by Ohio State last year. Ohio State is trying to put its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma behind them, in an effort to climb back into the CFP discussion. Dominating wins over Army, UNLV and Rutgers don't hurt the Buckeyes' chances but also don't help all that much, either.

Maryland: The Terrapins rebounded from a surprising home loss to Central Florida by winning 31-24 at Minnesota last week to open its Big Ten slate. However, let's note that UCF is 3-0 and currently ranked 25th in the latest AP poll. Sophomore Max Bortenschlager completed 18-of-28 passes for 154 yards and two TDs plus also ran for a score against Minnesota in his first start after the Terrapins’ top two quarterbacks, Kasim Hill and Tyrrell Pigrome, went down with season-ending knee injuries. RB Ty Johnson has 411 rushing yards on 8.9 YPC with four TDs, leading a ground game that averages 233.5 YPG (24th) on 5.7 YPC with 12 scores. Defensively, Maryland is allowing 30.0 PPG (92nd) and will be severely tested by an Ohio State offense which has scored 148 points over the last three games since the loss to Oklahoma!

Ohio State: J.T. Barrett 'laid an egg' against Oklahoma but has comlalted 71.2 percent for 765 yards with 10 TDs (no INTs over 73 attempts) , while adding 125 rushing yards and another TD in OSU's three-game winning streak. Freshman RB Dobbins has 573 yards (7.6 YPC) and three TDs on the season, leading a ground game accounting for 241.0 YPG (20th). The defense is holding opponents to 160.0 YPG (16) on 335.6 YPG (34th).

The pick: Barrett has been outstanding the last three games and on the season, has 13 TD passes spread around over nine different players. Freshman J.K. Dobbins has been terrific and now Mike Weber, who ran for 1069 yards last year on 6.0 YP is back, running for three scores against Rutgers after struggling with hamstring issues. The Ohio State defense has allowed fewer than 100 passing yards in each of the last three games, after averaging 403 in the team's first two. With all due respect to Bortenschlager, he is the team's third-team QB. I'll note that Ohio State is just 6-12 its last 18 laying more than 21 points but Meyer's Ohio State teams have a 17-1 SU record in October since 2012. He's shown no mercy against ex-assistant Chris Ash, beating Rutgers 56-0 and 54-0. He took Durkin's Maryland team 'to the woodshed' last year (62-3). You may want to "think twice" about laying the big price but OSU has averaged a notch under 50 PPG its last three and will 'cover' most of this over/under number itself. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Friday night football on ESPN will feature the 1-4 BYU Cougars hosting the 2-2 Boise State Broncos. The Cougars are desperately trying to save their season, as it sure looks as if BYU's streak of 12 consecutive bowl appearances is in real danger. Boise State has been to 15 straight bowls but with road games here at BYU and and next weekend at San Diego State (currently 5-0 and ranked No. 19 in the latest AP poll), it hardly looks like "smooth sailing" for the Broncos, either.

Boise State: The Broncos fell 42-23 at home in their last game (Sep. 22), making it Boise State’s worst home loss since 2001. QB Brett Rypien was 24 of 42 for 285 yards without a TD pass and one INT vs. the Cavs. He's had a injury-marred season and is not even Boise's clear-cut No. 1 QB. To emphasize the Broncos' woes, I'll note that the team's "other QB," Montell Cozart, is the team's leading rusher with 191 yards. Boise State is averaging just 118.0 YPG on the ground (104th). The Broncos are averaging 29.8 PPG and it's been quite awhile since the team hasn't averaged at least 30 PPG (I quickly looked back eight years and all seasonal averages were 30-plus points). The defense comes in allowing 29.0 PPG (8656th).

BYU: Speaking of a lack of scoring, it's hard to fathom seeing a BYU team averaging only 12.6 PPG (126th). The Cougars can't pass (152.6 YPG ranks 118th) or run (104.0 YPG also ranks 118th), leaving them 129th overall in total yards at 256.6 YPG! The Cougars opened with an unimpressive 20-6 home win over Portland State and enter this game on a four-game slide. BYU led 21-7 a minute and a half into the second quarter against Utah State in its last game but then allowed 33 unanswered points, mostly due to seven turnovers. Ouch. Koy Detmer Jr. stepped in for injured QB Beau Hoge (who was already playing for No. 1 QB Mangum) and things went from bad to worse. Detmer took over and went seven of 20 with no scores and three interceptions of his own. Hoge is listed as questionable coming into this game. The BYU defense has played as well as one could expect, considering the fact that the team's offense gives them no 'cover.' The Cougars are allowing 26.4 PPG (72nd) on 381.6 YPG (68th).

The pick: With BYU and Boise State's recent (and not-so recent) history, who could have imagined them playing a game against each other and having the over/under number open 45? My sinning totals this year have often been playing "under" and on "inflated numbers" but here, it's just the opposite. Current 2017 form keeps this number low but it's TOO low. Both schools didn't play last weekend so make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Navy is 3-0 to open the 2017 season (2-0 in AAC play) and looks to start 4-0 for the second time in three years when it visits the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa Saturday at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Tulsa could use a feel good victory here, as the Golden Hurricane have opened 1-3, with the team's lone win coming 66-42 over ULL (another 1-3 school) at home. However, losing at home 16-13 to New Mexico last Saturday hardly inspires much confidence, plus the team lost a 54-51 hesrt-breaker at Toledo the week before!

Navy: I'm a huge fan of head coach Ken Niumatalolo and Navy's overall discipline. QB Zach Abey is completing just 36 percent of his passes but he has made the most of his nine completions, throwing for 295 yards and three TDs. His strength is leading a rushing attack which averages 393.0 YPG (2nd), after Navy rushed for 569 yards in last week's 42-32 victory over Cincinnati (the second-most in program history!). Abey has 471 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) and four TDs. Navy is averaging 35.7 PPG, well on its way to its fifth consecutive season in which the Midshipmen will have averaged better than 31.8 PPG! Navy allowed 31.0 PPG in 2016 but just 24.0 PPG so far in 2017, an improvement of a TD per game!

Tulsa: QB Chad President is completing a modest 55.9 percent of his passes for 677 yards with just one TD and one interception. That's hardly the standard for past Tulsa QBs. However, Tulsa's ground game is averaging 311.5 YPG (4th), the reason Tulsa checks in scoring 38.5 PPG. The problem for Tulsa is, its defense is allowing 42.8 PPG (124th) on 590.2 YPG (129th).

The pick: OK, so here we go again. Regulars are well aware that I've 'made a killing' with my CFB totals in 2017, specializing in going under on over/under numbers like this, which are 'sky high.' Let's chalk up another one here. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The BYU Cougars have opened the season 1-3 and Friday night will travel to Romney Stadium in Logan, Utah to take on the 2-2 Utah State Aggies. The Cougars were off last Saturday, after losing 40-6 at home to Wisconsin on Sep. 16. The Cougars were out-gained by the Badgers 491-to-192 in total yards, as the the team's season-long offensive woes continued (BYU ranks 130th in scoring at 9.8 YPC). Utah State improved to 2-2 on the season after defeating San Jose State 61-10 this past Saturday. The Aggies jumped all over Spartans, scoring the game's first 55 points and out-gained them by a margin of 589-to-171 in total yards.

BYU: It's hard to imagine that BYU, a school known for its offensive prowess over the years, ranks 130th in scoring and 129th in total yards (221.8 YPG). Tanner Mangum was named the starting QB prior to the season but suffered a leg injury during the final play of the Cougars' 19-13 loss to Utah on Sep. 9. Beau Hoge started in place of Mangum against the Badgers, completing 11 of 20 passes for 111 yards and two interceptions in what was the first start of his collegiate career. According to BYU head coach Kalani Sitake, Mangum's availability against the Aggies is still up in the air (note: Mangum took the field as a team captain wearing a protective boot and with an accompanying riding scooter prior to the Cougars' 40-6 loss to Wisconsin). Defensively, BYU has allowed 27.0 PPG (53rd) on 404.0 YPG (82nd).

Utah State: Dominating San Jose State is nothing to brag too much about. Leading the way for Utah State was QB Kent Myers, who completed 18-24 passes for 181 yards and two TDs with an INT. The Aggies are averaging 33.0 PPG (56th) on 439.0 YPG (55th) with nice balance (264.0 passing / 175.0 rushing). Defensively, the Aggies are allowing an average of 32.0 PPG (103rd) on 385.0 YPG (66th). Utah State has been helped by forced nine turnovers in four games.

The pick: This is the 87th meeting of this series (BYU leads 48-35-3) but I'll note that Utah State has won seven straight home games against non-conference opponents. BYU comes in with an offense which has done nothing but the Cougars are dropping way down in class after losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin (combined 10-1 SU). The Cougars have dominated this series since 1983 (won 25 of 28) and I see a "breakout performance." This 'low' total sets up a 10* play on the Over.

The set-up: The 1-1 Arkansas State Red Wolves of the Sun Belt will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas to take of the AAC's SMU Mustangs, who have opened their season 2-1. The Red Wolves opened with a tightly-contested 43-36 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska, before seeing their game with Miami-Fla. canceled to due to Hurricane Irma. ASU picked up its first win of 2017 by routing Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home, 48-3 last Saturday. SMU opened its season with home wins over SF Austin (58-14) and North Texas (54-32) but then could not slow down then-No. 20 TCU last Saturday in Fort Worth, losing 56-36. SMU gets Arkansas St. this Saturday and then UConn next Saturday (both at home), so the Mustangs have to be 'smelling' a 4-1 start, not bad for a program that was just 5-7 last year, plus 2-10 and 1-11 the previous two seasons.

Arkansas State: QB Justice Hansen is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 751 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. It's only two games but ASU's 385.5 YPG through the air ranks 8th-best in the nation. The defense had its problems with Nebraska (43 points allowed on 463 yards) but then the three points allowed vs. Ark-Pine Bluff, makes the defensive stat sheet look somewhat better.

SMU: QB Ben Hicks is completing just 48.4 percent of his passes but he's thrown for 729 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions. Hicks and Rafe Peavey have combined for nine touchdown passes this season and an average of 318.3 YPG passing (20th-best). Freeman (151 yards) and Jones (150 yards) lead a rushing attack which averages 155.3 YPG. All told, it has translated into 49.3 PPG or 6th-best in the nation. SMU couldn't stop TCU at all (56 points on 619 yards) and will enter this game with its defense allowing 34.0 PPG (105th).

The pick: OK, so is the Over the play? I've had great success so far in 2017 by "playing under" on more than a few of these games with extremely high totals. That's the angle once again here, as I make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: Friday night CFB on ESPN comes from Albertsons Stadium (home of the famous "Blue Turf'), as the 2-1 Boise State Broncos host the 2-1 Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs have opened the 2017 season with three consecutive home games, beating William & Mary 28-10, losing 34-17 to Indiana and then topping UConn, 38-18. The Broncos own home wins over Troy (24-13) and New Mexico (28-14), sandwiched around a 47-44 triple-OT loss at Washington State. The schools have only met once before, with Boise State crushing the Cavs 56-14 at Charlottesville in 2015. Virginia was just 4-8 taht season but fell to 2-10 last year, in Bronco Mendenhall's first season at Virginia.

Virginia: QB Kurt Benkert finished 30-of-40 for 455 yards (a school record!), three TDs and a pick in last week's Virginia win. He's completing 66.2% on the season with 976 passing yards (seven TDs and just one INT). He's accomplished all this without the help of a running game which is averaging only 106.0 YPG (111th) on 3.6 YPC. The defense comes in allowing a modest 20.7 PPG (49th) on 330.7 YPG (44th).

Boise State: The Broncos rebounded from that triple-overtime loss to Washington State with a 28-14 win over New Mexico. Senior Montell Cozart stepped into the starting QB role in place of Brett Rypien (injured?) and threw for two TDs while running for 71 yards and a third TD (he also had two passing TDs and 72 rushing yards and a TD in replacing Rypien against Wash. St.). Boise State has made the most of its 342.0 YPG (107th) by averaging 32.0 PPG (60th).

The pick: Rypien (undisclosed injury) had a streak of 25 consecutive starts snapped last week, a run that started when he threw for 321 yards and three TDs at Virginia two season ago. "He's practicing, he'll practice today and we'll see where he's at through practice," Broncos coach Bryan Harsin told reporters Monday. "He's back out there, threw some last week."Whether it's Rypien or Cozart, expect the Broncos to score here at home. However, Benkert's outstanding start makes me believe that Virginia can match Boise St. score for score. Overvalued Boise is just 11-28-1 its last 40 as a favorite and while I'm tempted to take the points with UVa, this is the Cavs first road game. I believe the Over is the better play. In fact, make it a 10*.

The set-up: The 1-2 San Jose State Spartans will visit Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to take on the 2-0 Utah Utes this Saturday night. The Utes are not ranked in the AP poll but do check in at No. 24 in the coaches' poll. The Spartans own a 43-13 home win over Cal-Poly but have lost 42-22 at home to USF (season-opener) and last Saturday lost 56-0 at Texas. The Utes opened with a 37-16 home win over North Dakota and then improved to 2-0 on the season by defeating BYU 19-13 at Provo this past Saturday. Utah jumped out to a 19-6 lead with 2:35 left in the 3rd quarter and were able to survive a late BYU comeback in the 4th.

San Jose State: The Spartans opened the season with a first-year head coach in Brent Brennan and have played three QBs so far with red-shirt freshman Montel Aaron making his first start in the loss to Texas. The Spartans are averaging only 18.7 PPG (110th) on 346.7 YPG (99th). The defense was gashed for 623 total yards by Texas, including 406 yards and six TDs on the ground. San Jose St. is allowing 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th).

Utah: Tyler Huntley is the team's new QB and he's a true dual-threat. He has completed 73.5 percent of his passes for 527 yards (one TD / one INT) and is also he team’s leading rusher with 159 yards on 37 attempts (three rushing TDs). Huntley's top target is Oregon transfer Darren Carrington, who has 17 catches for 256 yards and a TD. The Utes are averaging a modest 28.0 PPG (87th) on offense but the defense has been excellent, allowing 14.5 PPG (30th) on 235.5 YPG (17th).

The pick: Utah holds a 7-1 lead in the series between these former WAC rivals, including a 34-16 road win last season in San Jose. The Utes are 23-1 in non-conference games since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. Utah hasn't had a breakout offensive effort yet but I expect one here vs. San Jose State, which was routed by Texas last week (see above) and as noted above, has allowed 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th). The Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: Illinois and South Florida are both 2-0 to open the 2017 season, although it's the lesser-known school from Tampa which is the ranked team, at No. 21 in the latest AP poll. Illinois is off a 3-9 season in Lovie Smith's first year as head coach and the Fighting Illini haven't had a winning season since their 20-14 bowl win over UCLA in 2011 allowed them to finish 7-6. Meanwhile, Willie Taggert rejuvenated the USF program, going 8-5 in 2015 and 11-2 in 2016, including an exciting 46-39 OT win over South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. Taggert used his success to land the Oregon job but Charlie Strong brings solid credentials to the program, despite his lack of success at Texas. USF had its game last week at Connecticut cancelled, due to complications with Hurricane Irma.

Illinois: Ilinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and Lovie Smith will be returning to 'the scene of the crime,' as Tampa is home to the NFL’s Buccaneers, which was his previous job before landing at Illinois. The Fighting Illini opened with an unimpressive 24-21 home win over Ball State but then as a six-point home 'dog to Western Kentucky, won 20-7. Lovie's always been known as a defensive coach and through two games, Illinois is allowing 14.0 PPG (28th) on 309.5 YPG (48th). However, the team's offense is another story. Illinois averages a woeful 258.0 YPG (123rd), due to anemic passing attack with ranks 120th, averaging 126.0 YPG. In the most important offensive stat of all, points scored, Illinois is T-100th at 22.0 PPG.

USF: Taggert may be in Oregon but he left behind QB Quinton Flowers for Charlie Strong. Flowers threw for 2,812 yards with a 24-7 ratio last year, while rushing for 1,530 yards and another 18 TDs. He's not off to a Lamar Jackson-like start in 2017 (398 passing yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT plus 137 rushing yards with just 1 TD) but he has led the Bulls to 42 and 31 points. USF ranks 44th in scoring (36.5 PPG) and 51st in total yards (443.5 YPG). The defense, which allowed 31.6 PPG in 2017, is off to an excellent start, allowing 19.5 PPG (50th) on 308.0 YPG (42nd). That said, the competition has not been all that tough.

The pick: The Fighting Illini have proven to be offensively challenged so far but USF's early defensive numbers are a bit of a mirage. As for Illinois' defense, it gets a severe test here from USF, which has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games! I believe USF will dictate this contest and with a total in the mid-50s (note: the lowest final score for an USF game in 2017 was 60 points!), the Over is an 8* play.

The set-up: The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders opened their 2017 season with a 28-6 loss at home to Vanderbilt and now visit the Syracuse Orange this Saturday at the Carrier Dome in search of their first win. Syracuse is home for a second straight weekend, romping 50-7 over Central Connecticut State to open its 2017 season. MTSU went 8-5 overall in 2016 (5-3 in C-USA play), including a 52-35 loss in the Hawaii Bowl to the home-standing Rainbow Warriors. Dino Babers used back-to-back bowl appearances at Bowling Green to get the head job at Syracuse but in his first season (2016), finished just 4-8 (2-6 in the ACC). The two schools are meeting for the first time as FBS members.

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders were shut down against Vanderbilt, falling behind 14-0 after the first quarter. MTSU didn't crack Vandy's end zone until the fourth quarter, well after the outcome had been decided. The offense was held to a modest 215 yards. QB Brent Stocksrtill, who threw for over 4000 yards (30-9 ratio) in 2015 and for 3233 yards in 2016 (31-7 ratio), was held to 166 yards with one TD and one INT. MTSU ran for only 49 yards on 26 attempts.

Syracuse: The Orange totally out-classed Central Connecticut State, opening up a 31-0 advantage at halftime, before coasting the rest of the way. The Orange had a dominant 586-167 advantage in total offense and racked up 34 FDs to Central Connecticut’s eight. QB Eric Dungey was outstanding, completing 28 of 36 passes for 328 yards with three TDs (he also ran 51 yards and two scores on the ground).

The pick: The Syracuse defense had no problem with Central Connecticut State but let's not forget that the Orange allowed 38.6 PPG. Yes, 10 starters return but the MTSU offense will be a much tougher test. The Blue Raiders were shut down by the Vandy defense but this team did average 39.7 PPG last season. The 'catch' here though is, the over/under number is currently in the mid-70s. MTSU struggled with Vandy's D (at home!), so while the Syracuse D is much 'softer,' this is a road game. Note that MTSU enters on a 3-19 run in road openers. Make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals, ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, will open the 2017 season against the Purdue Boilermakers, led by new head coach Jeff Brohm. The game will be played at at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis), the home of the Colts. It's only fitting that Brohm's first game as Purdue's head coach comes against his alma mater, where he was Louisville's starting QB for two seasons in the early 1990s.

Louisville: Bobby Petrino can coach (forget about the off-field stuff) and his Cardinals were 9-1 through 10 games last season (lone loss at Clemson by six points) and ranked No. 3, before imploding. However, a 36-10 loss at Houston was followed by an embarrassing 41-38 loss at home to Kentucky (as a nearly four-TD favorite) to end the regular season. Louisville was then man-handled by LSU, 29-9 in the Citrus Bowl. However, the team's late-season collapse didn't prevent QB Lamar Jackson from winning the Heisman (it shouldn't have). Jackson passed for 3,543 yards and 30 TDs last year while rushing for 1,571 yards and another 21 scores! Jackson lost a few key contributors but he's so talented, don't expect too much of a drop-off in 2017. That said, don't expect a second straight Heisman, either.

Purdue. Brohm come to Purdue from Western Ky, where he turned the the Hilltoppers into the nation's highest-scoring team at 45.5 PPG in 2016. David Blough is Purdue's returning starter at QB but Brohm says he likes three of his QBs and would not be afraid to use all of them with Blough struggling with a sore shoulder (he suffered a strained right shoulder during an August 12 scrimmage). To be competitive, Purdue needs to score, as its defense ranked 117th in the nation last year, allowing 38.3 PPG.

The pick: Brohm was an asistant at Western Ky when Petrino was hired as the Hilltoppers head coach. Petrino has said he is thrilled that Brohm landed a Power-5 conference coaching position. He expects his former assistant will turn around a Purdue program that has gone just 9-39 the past four seasons with only three victories in Big Ten conference play. However, that may be wishful thinking right now. Louisville has the best QB on the field (in the country?) but did lose a lot of key players, including most of the offensive line. It may take Louisville a few games to jell. The Boilermakers have lost nine of their last 10 non-home games and are a near-4 TD underdog here, so expect a loss. However, don't expect Petrino to run up the score and thisov er/under number is too high. Make Louisville/Purdue a 10* Under play.

The set-up: Two CFB superpowers open Saturday in this game at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, Texas, with No. 11 Michigan taking on No. 17 Florida. This marks the first time these two legendary programs have met in regular season, although Michigan has won all three bowl meetings, including a 41-7 beat-down of an injury-riddled Florida offense in the Citrus Bowl following the 2015 season.

Michigan: Jim Harbaugh took over Michigan in 2015, inheriting a team which was just 5-7 the previous year. His first team went 10-3, including that previously-mentioned bowl win over Florida and then last year's team again went 10-3. However, that doesn't tell the entire story. Michigan opened 9-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the nation when it lost 14-13 at Iowa. An unimpressive 20-10 win over Indiana followed and then Michigan lost a controversial double-OT at Columbus to Ohio State, 30-27. The Wolverines capped its season with a 33-32 loss to FSU in the Orange Bowl. Harbaugh's an intense coach and will be looking to quickly establish his team after last year's poor finish (three losses in its last four games). Harbaugh can easily rub people the wrong way. He refused to release his team's playing roster until Wednesday, declined to formally announce his quarterback and then went overboard by insinuating Florida coach Jim McElwain was the one playing games by initially not revealing his team's signal-caller. Harbaugh can play all the "head games" he wants but he needs to replace 10 starters off last year unit, which was one of the nation's best (allowed 14.1 PPG on just over 262 yards per). I'm still not quite sure who will be Michigan's starting QB for most of this year.

Florida: Jim McElwain begins his third season with the Gators, after going 10-4 and 9-4 in 2015 and 2016. He is dealing with two key issues in this contest. The big story is the suspension of seven players, including 2016 leading receiver and special teams stud Antonio Callaway (54 catches and 721 receiving yards with four TDs in 2016) and defensive lineman Keivonnis Davis, for misuse of school funds. The other question mark is who will start under center. RS freshman Feleipe Franks started the spring game for the Gators and played well enough to be considered for the starting job, while Luke Del Rio is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and then there’s the wild card in Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire. In the end, McElwain named Franks as the starter on Wednesday. Franks threw for 2,766 yards and 35 TDs during his senior season at Wakulla High School in Crawfordville, Fla. The defense took a big on hit, with only five starters returning from last season and don't expect the Gators to match last year's numbers of 16.8 PPG on about 293 YPG.

The pick: I'm no fan of either of Michigan's two QBs, Wilton Speight or John O’Korn and I believe Michigan's preseason ranking of No. 11 is based more on Harbuagh's notoriety. After all, Michigan had a school-record 11 players selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, meaning there are many new faces in new roles all over the field. Let me add that Florida has won 27 consecutive season openers, the best streak in the nation. The Gators will likely remember that recent Citrus Bowl loss to the Wolverines but after careful consideration I prefer to make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: Florida lost 54-16 in the SEC championship game against Alabama, after losing 31-13 to Florida State in its regular season finale. The Gators take an 8-4 record into Monday's Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla, up against the 8-4 Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa was punished 41-14 at Penn State but then earned a "signature" 14-13 win over then-No.3 Michigan on Nov 12, beat Illinois 28-0 and had a regular season-ending 40-10 rout over then-No. 16 Nebraska.