10* UNDER Washington/Michigan (TOW)

We think the time off between games will be detrimental to these offenses, and beneficial to the defenses early on. Note that when these teams met in 2021, the combined to score just 41 points. The Wolverines will be content throughout to let the clock run on offense as they use the run to set up the pass. This Michigan defense just held Alabama to 288 total yards of offnse in the win over the Rose Bowl and we're anticipating Michael Penix Jr. to have a hell of a time in this one as well. Everything points to this total being just a bit TOO high, so the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Liberty/Oregon (BOWL TOY)

We're expecting very little defense to be played here in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in what sets up to be an interesting matchup between two teams that have somethng to prove. Liberty finished 13-0, capped off by a 49-35 win over New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship Game. Clearly, the Flames will be out to prove to the nation that they should have been part of the College Football championship. Oregon went 11-2 and lost 34-31 to Washington in the final PAC 12 Championship Game. The Ducks averaged 44.2 PPG, while allowing just 17.3, but with the Flames pushing the pace like we anticipate, despite being such big underdogs, everything definitely points to a high-paced, wide-open "shootout," rather than a grind-it-out defensive affair. Liberty averaged 40.8 PPG, while allowing 22.7 and while these are admittedly two very good defensive teams, we're anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Toledo/Wyoming UNDER (BOWL TOM)

This is the Arizona Bowl and we're anticipating a very defensive affair, and will therefore be hammering the "under" on this one. Wyoming's offense ranks 24th worst, averaging only 324.8 YPG and 26.1 points. But what the Cowboys lack on the offensive end, they more than make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 22.9 points. Toledo is averaging 33.6 PPG, while allowing only 20.6. The Rockets are now faced with a similar tough defensive unit here. DeQuan Finn is a talented QB for the Rockets, but both teams are going to have to deal with several opt-outs and transfters before this game takes place. Look for the longer lay off to throw a "monkey wrench" into each team's offensive rythym and expect these talented defenses to be the "main storylines" in tomorrows summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Georgia Tech/UCF.

Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams are among the best in the nation on the offensive side of the ball, and each is among the worst on the defensive. All of these team's regular season numbers would clearly point to this being a high-scoring affair, and the general betting public would agree, as this O/U line jumped nearly six points from where it opened originally. Now, though, we feel its much TOO high. We liked the "under" on the original line, but now we definitely think this is too many points for these teams to go over. The longer lay-off will prove detrimental to each team's offense and beneficial for the defensive units in our estimation. A LOT of things have to go right for this total to go "over" the number, and we just don't see it happening; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER USF/Cuse (BOWL WINNER)

This is a great situational play. Syracuse is the favorite here, but it's already undergone big changes since ending the regular season, including firing its head coach Nunzio Campanile, who will be replaced by Fran Brown. Both teams finished 6-6, but now Cuse will be using a new man under center for this bowl game in Braden Davis, who played in two games this season and has one pass and rushed the ball twice. That means that running the ball is paramount for the Orange, and they'll be leaning heavily on LeQuint Allen, who had 1,062 rushing yards and nine TD's. USF is led by QB Byrum Brown, who has 3,078 yards passing and a 23:11 TD:INT. The defense catches a break here this week, but expect Brown to be under pressure from the Orange who concede 23.8 PPG and ranked 75th against the pass. Expect the longer lay-off and the changes to the line-ups to help in contributing to the Boca Raton Bowl staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done this year!

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10* UNDER UTSA/Marshall (TOP TOTAL)

UTSA is strong against the run, and Marshall is going to have to be forced to go to the run early and often with QB Cam Fancher out, and redshirt freshman Cole Pennington taking over. He'll be handing the ball to Rasheen Ali, who had over 1,000 yards rushing. Marshall only averages 23 PPG. UTSA averages 31.7, but it'll have its hands full here with this aggressive Herd defense. With each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run throughout on this one like we expect, all signs point to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Army/Navy (NON-CONF TOM)

This game features two above average defenses, and two offenses which will run, run again, and then run some more! That said, we still feel that this total is ridiculous, as we're anticipating this competitive affair to translate into some offensive production on the field of play, which makes the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Last year Army came from behind to win 17-14 as a 3-point dog. Navy and Army have split the last four games, but we believe that good field position, set up by turnovers, will also help in contributing with this one going "over" the total once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Toledo/Miami Ohio (MAC TOM)

Pretty low total here, and we think it is in fact MUCH too low. Miami Ohio is 10-2 and Toledo is 11-1. These teams played in Week 8 and Toledo won 21-17 as a 2.5-point favorite. Note though that the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. a conference opponent. Miami Ohio saw the total go "under" in three straight to end the regular season, which is also significant to note here, as the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Toledo has scored a combined 144 points over its last four games and we're expecting that offensive momentum to get carried over here as well; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

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10* UNDER Buffs/Utes (PAC 12 TOW)

Here's a great "situational" play on the "under." Colorado is 4-7 and won't be moving onto a bowl. Last week the Buffs fell 56-14 at WSU and we have a hard time seeing the visitors even matching that pathethic offensive output. Utah is 7-4 and off B2B losses in which it has conceded 77 points. Now back at home, the last time it was here Utah won 55-3 over ASU. Expect another stellar defensive performance from the home side and for the visitors to simply "go through the motions;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Georgia State/ODU (SUN BELT TOY)

This is a huge game for ODU, which is 5-6 so far this season. Georgia State is 6-5, but four straight losses, the Panthers will be eager to return to form here and actually improve their bowl berth with a victory here. This is a great "situational" play, as ODU saved its season in last week's 20-17 win at Georgia Southern, but while the Monarchs have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, note that they've seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row; with each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Georgia State/LSU UNDER (NON-CONF TOY)

LSU and Jayden Daniels are 7-3. They've seen the total go "over" the number in all ten games. Daniels is brilliant, but now here favored at home in a massive way over lowly 6-4 Georgia State, which became bowl eligible and then immediately lost three straight. No need to overthink this one, as this is a great "situational" play. Georgia State will just be going through the motions here and will be looking to avoid any serious injuries. One game after falling 42-28 to Alabama, LSU bounced back with last week's 52-35 win over Florida, but with Texas A&M up next to close out the season, we believe the home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half; this number is finally a bit TOO high here for the Tigers, so the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Toledo/Bowling Green.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Toledo is 9-1 and looking to close out the regular season strong before Conference Tournament. BGSU is eligible at 6-4, but it'll also be looking to improve its berth with another win here and a possible upset. BGSU has seen the total go "over" three straight games after its fourth straight win in last week's 49-19 win at Kent State, but note that the Green Falcons have in fact seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Toledo is off a 49-23 win over EMU, but with the home side looking to control the pace of this one, rather than turn it into a shootout, we say that the overall situation, combined with the trends all point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* OVER Ohio/Buffalo (MAC TOW)

Ohio is 6-3, while Buffalo is 3-6. The Bulls would have to improbably run the table to become eligible. Likely won't happen obviously, but Buffalo won't go down without a fight. Ohio is 6-3, but the Bobcats have bigger aspirations than just becoming "eligible." One week after doing just that, Ohio fell flat in last week's 30-16 home loss to Miami Ohio as a 7.5-point favorite. But that's signficant to note here as the Bobcats have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous game. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER UCLA/Arizona.

The UCLA Bruins are 6-2 and the Arizona Wildcats are 5-3. UCLA is off a 28-16 win over Colorado and it's now seen the total go "under" the number in two straight. The Wildcats are looking to become eligible here, as they're now on the cusp with five wins. They've won two straight and in fact over their last three games their offense has been "firing on all cylinders," posting a combined 112 points over those three outings (going 2-1.) The last time these teams played was last November and Arizona won 34-28, which would have sailed well "over" the posted number in this season's contest, but which stayed well below the total of 77.5 in that one last year. But that was then and this is now and when you add up all of the situational factors listed above, and taking into account all of the lower-scoring games these teams have been involved in of late, then this important Week 10 total is now for sure a little low; the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Kent State/Akron.

Both teams are terrible. Both enter at 1-7. There's nothing to play for here, not even the role of "spoiler" etc. This is a really low total, because these teams have been consistently inconsistent on the offensive end all season. Kent State only averages 12.5 PPG, but the Flashes are conceding 30.6. On the flip-side, the Zips are conceding a whopping 36.3 PPG. Yes, these offenses have struggled all season, but they won't here. With nothing to play here for but pride, expect this faster-paced and wide-open affair to eclipse this smaller number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* OVER NIU/CMU (MAC TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. This sets up great from a situational stand-point to be a higher-scoring affair, as this is a big game for each 4-4 side. Each team needs two more wins to become eligible for a bowl. NIU is 3-1 ATS on the road, while CMU is 3-0 SU at home. Let's steer clear of the side, and note that the Chips have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row (which is the case.) This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* O/U ASSASSIN FSU/Wake OVER.

We have an interesting matchup here with Florida State now 7-0 after its 38-20 home win over Duke last week it was a 13.5 point favorite in that one. It's a 20-point favorite here on the road in this one. The total blasted past the posted number of 49 in that one and this game at Wake Forest is a bit higher the over/under number but it's still not nearly high enough in our estimation. Clearly, the Seminoles are in the driver's seat moving forward, as they have very winnable matchups throughout the rest of their regular season. They should in fact be favored in every game they play in now moving forward. We say for sure that FSU can keep the offensive momentum rolling here against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 4-3. They're 12th in the ACC and they're off the 21-17 upset home win over Pittsburgh. They still have a shot at a bowl game and they obviously won't be rolling over here. Wake has now played to five straight "unders" in a row after its most recent win, but note that the Deacons have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. When you add together the situational factors and the above listed  trend, everything points to this big ACC matchup at high noon on Saturday flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER FAU/Charlotte (AAC TOW)

We have a really low total here. A little TOO low now in our estimation. FAU is 3-4, while Charlotte is 2-5. FAU has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four, including it its most recent 36-10 home loss to UTSA. Charlotte on the other hand has now seen the total go "under" in four straight after its most recent 10-7 win at East Carolina as a six-point dog. Previous to that the 49ers loss 14-0 at home to Navy. FAU won this game by a score of 43-13 last year, and we're expecting a similar final combined score here as well. FAU QB Daniel Richardson had 142 passing yards but made several mistakes in the loss to UTSA, but clearly catches a break here facing the 49ers. Charlotte hasn't been terrible defesively, but with each team desperate for a victory here and pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this O/U line finally being a bit TOO low; the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* Syracuse/VT OVER (ACC TOY)

Some pundits may believe that this will be a very low-scoring defensive battle, but we sure don't! These are two hungry teams looking for an outright victory here and we're expecting this extreme-sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play today. Syracuse Syracuse is 4-3, while Virginia Tech is 3-4. The Hokies though are 3-1 at home. The Orange come in having lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as VT has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. ALSO, the Orange come in having seen the total go "under" in six straight, and despite their last game staying well under the number in their 41-3 humbling loss at FSU, note that Syracuse has also seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten still after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. These teams haven't played since 2021, but in that contest they combined for a whopping 77 points in the Orange's 41-36 road victory as a 3.5-point dog. We're not expecting that many points this time around, but we're definitely once again expecting a similar high-octane offensive affair, one that blasts past the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER UTEP/Sam Houston State.

These teams are bottom feeders and each has struggled to put points on the board in a consistent manner this season, but we definitely feel this O/U line is much too low in this one. Sam Houston State has nothing to play for here except pride as the Bearkats enter at 0-7 after a tough 33-27 OT home loss to FIU as 5-point favs last weekend. It was the best that Sam Houston has looked offensively and we fully expect that momentum to get carried over here. UTEP is 2-6 after a 28-7 loss to New Mexico State. The Miners have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's signficiant to note here as UTEP has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Here's a great "situational" total on Tuesday night; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* UNDER CSU/UNLV (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. Colorado State has seen the total go "over" in two straight afer its most recent 31-30 home upset of Boise State as a 7.5-point dog. Note though that CSU has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS home win as an underdog. UNLV has covered in all six games and is 5-1 SU overall. The Runnin Rebels have seen the total go "over" the number in four sraight after a 45-27 win at Nevada last time out, but note that the Rebels have still seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. UNLV's only loss was a 35-7 setback to Michigan. The Rebels can become bowl eligibile with a win here. We don't see UNLV's defense giving the Rams' any hope and believe they home side will just look to control this one without sustaining significant injuries. In our opinion, all of this will add up to a lower-scoring defensive battle in the end; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Rice/Tulsa (ACC TOY)

It's a big game, as each team comes into this one at 3-3 overall and 1-1 in league play. We're expecting a very competitive (as are the bookmakers with a spread like this!), and because of that, we're going to focus on the total and we're definitely expecting more of a defensive affair than what this larger O/U line is suggesting. The Owls are 4-2 ATS and they've seen the total go "over" the number in four of six this season. QB JT Daniels has 1,831 passing yards, 15 TDs and five INTs. The Owls have struggled defensively, but we anticipate this game to be won in the trenches and by field position this time around. Tulsa brought in all new coaching staff this year and so far so good. Tulsa has gotten the job done with tough defensive play and by running the all, as four of six games have gone "under" the number. If this one was at Rice, we'd likely be leaning to a higher-scoring game, but as it is, all signs in our opinion point to this one being a defensive battle until the end; the play is indeed on the "under!"

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10* OVER FIU/Sam Houston State.

Time is running out for 3-4 Florida International to become "eligible," but here's a great opportunity to move one step closer to that possibility. Sam Houston State enters 0-6, just looking for something positive and to finally "get off the schneid." Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency this year and each has been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but those facts have only helped in driving this particular total now a few points lower than it normally would/should be. We have to very motivated sides, and we're expecting that sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play on Wednesday night. The Panthers average 28 PPG in their victories so far. The Bearkats have nothing to lose here, except another game. They have just nine offensive TD's this season, but here's a greart opponend for QB Keegan Shoemaker to finally have a break out performance against. Last week he was 32 of 48 for 278 yards and two TD's in the lost to New Mexico State. In our opinion, everything point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER Cal/Utah (PAC 12 TOM)

Cal is 3-3 and coming off a 52-40 shootout home loss to Oregon State on Saturday. Cal's offense looked decent, but the defense looked terrible. So that's good news for the 4-1 Utes, who come out of their bye off their first loss in a 21-7 setback at Oregon State (note though that Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to a TD or less.) Utah hasn't announced yet if star QB Cam Rising will finally be under center, but whether he is or not we can fully expect this explosive Cal offense to run the ball early and often behind Isaiah Ifanse. But the Golden Bears' defense, especially the secondary is completely atrocious. No matter which way you cut it, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER San Jose State/Boise State.

Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here on Saturday night, and in our opinion, we're going to see a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Boise State is 2-3 and San Jose State is 1-4. The Spartans have lost five straight road games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been decent with 1,066 yards passing, six TD's and two INT's. The defense is allowing 33.4 PPG. Boise State concedes 31.6. It's QB Taylen Green has 938 passing yards and a 4:4 TD:INT. The ground game though is the strength of the Broncos by averaging 165.8 YPG. Boise State will look to run this ball, and then run it some more to control the pace of this contest. San Jose State has had a difficult schedule, but this is a tough matchup once again for it and we expect it to once again have difficulties moving the ball. When you add it all up, this number is indeed high; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER UNT/Navy (AAC TOM)

For a number of different reasons we believe this number is way too high. UNT is 2-2, while Navy is 1-3. The Mean Green though have seen the total go "over" the number in all four games this year. That fact has only helped in driving this particular total here in Week 6 a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Navhy has seen its last two games fly "over" the number as well (both losses.) Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here and we're fully expecting this to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. These teams haven't played against each other since 2007, so there's no recent comparisons to make in that department, but from a "situational" stand point, this one sets up beautifully to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. This game is going to be decided in the trenches, and by field position; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Nebraska/Illinois (BIG TEN TOY)

Two struggling Big Ten teams collide on Friday night. The Huskers are 2-3 straight up and 2-3 against the spread as well and they're also 0-2 straight up on the road. Illinois is 2-3 as well, but it's 2-1 at home. What does definitley stand out here though is that the Illini are so far 0-5 against the spread to open the year. Nebraska is going back and forth with its quarterbacks, but it looks like Henrich Haarberg has emerged as their No. 1 guy over Jeff Simms. Haarberg has only completed 54 percent of his passes, but he's the teams best rusher. Illinois is led by Luke Altmyer, who has looked bad of late. He looked banged up in last week's 44-19 loss to Purdue. The Illini passing game is in the bottom half of nation in EPA/pass and so far he has a negative touchdown to interception ratio. We love standing in front of trains and predicting when a lop-sided streak, either good or bad, will come to an end but we're going to steer clear of a side in this one on Friday night between these two struggling teams and instead focus on the tota; and we're going with the "under" here. Both of these offenses are in really bad shape right now. Nebraska is so far limiting opponents to less than five yards per play (which is 25th in the country.) In what should be an evenly matched "WAR OF ATTRITION," the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* OVER Jacksonville State/MTSU.

MTSU is 1-4, and Jacksonville State is 4-1. So why are the Blue Raiders favored here today? Because they've played the much more difficult schedule. They're also in dire need of some victories now that conference play is in full swing if they have any hope of a Bowl berth. Jacksonville State is off the 35-28 win over Sam Houston State, and we expect the Gamecocks to keep that offensive momentum rolling here. With MTSU pushing the pace of this one like we anticipate, this great situational play will eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* UNDER Vanderbilt/Wake (EARLY)

A couple of non-conference opponents battle here and in our opinion, this total is a little high. Vanderbilt is off a 47-13 win over Alabama A&M, while Wake Forest smashed Elon 37-17. Both failed to cover the spread. Let's not overreact to last week's results offensively though is the moral of this story in our opinion. Wake Forest did win 45-25 last year, but with considerable turnover for each side, we're anticipating a much tighter game this time around. This one is going to be decided in the trenches and by field position; this number is high, the play is the under!

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10* Florida/Utah UNDER (TOM)

The Utes finished 10-4 last year and they lost in the Rose Bowl. Utah averaged 38.6 points per game while conceding 21.4. The Gators were 6-7 in 2022, and they lost the Las Vegas Bowl. They averaged 29.5 points, while allowing 28.8 per contest. Utah has question marks at QB though, as Cam Rising is still nursing a sore knee suffered in the Rose Bowl, while backup Brandon Rose was hurt in the preseason and he's up in the air as well. Florida's offense will be shaky to start this year as well, but it'll make up for it on the defensive side, which will be tough in the pass rush in this one. A great situational play on the "under!" 

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10* Navy/ND UNDER (NON-CONF TOW)

This is the third time these teams have played each other in Ireland. Notre Dame is 2-0. The Irish are heavy favorites here, but we're steering clear of the side and instead focussing on the total. The last time was back in 2012 where the Irish won 50-10. Notre Dame finished 9-4 overall last year and 7-6 ATS. Sam Hartman transferred over from Wake Forest and he had 38 TD's and 12 INT's last year. He now steps behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Navy finihed 4-8 overall and 7-5 ATS. The Midshipmen came out on the wrong side of more than a couple close calls last week. Navy's offense is centered around the run and that's what we're expecting to see a lot of today. Also note that the Midshipment finished first in their conference in third down stops last year. They also ranked second in stopping the run in the nation and the defense returns most of the starters. Look for this "across the pond" contest to be decided by field position and special teams and expect it to fall "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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10* UNDER (TOW)

The Horned Frogs were 5-7 last year, and now here they are in the National Championship Game. While the Frogs got out to a fast start vs. Michigan, I htink the Bulldogs will be ready on the defensive end from the "get go." Why is Georgia such a big favorite here? The Bulldogs have superior talent throughout all three phases. NFL level talent. And they're much bigger in the trenches. The Bulldogs will be out to impose themselves here on the Horned Frogs. I'm not expecting a shootout. The exact opposite. Look for a run-heavy, slower-paced "under" i the National Championship Game this year!

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10* OVER Penn State/Utah (BOWL TOY)

It's the "Granddaddy of 'Em All," with the Big Ten facing off against the Pac 12. Penn State brings in a great offense led by veteran QB Sean Clifford, who is playing his final game. He's aided by dynamic RB Nicholas Singleton, who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions are going to have to be sharp offensively facing this "on fire" Utah offense, that's posted 110 points over its last two games, including in securing the Pac 12 title over USC. QB Cameron Rising had 300 yards passing and three TD's in that one. This year's Rose Bowl features two awesome QB's and I look for them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is low, the play is the over!

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10* UNDER Kansas/Arkansas (BOWL TOM)

These teams haven't played each other in over 100 years. That streak ends on December 28th at Simmons Liberty Stadium in Memphis. Kansas finished 6-6 and it's finally in a bowl game for the first time since 2006. This is a big deal for the Jayhawks and their fan base. Arkansas also finished 6-6, but that was a disappointment for the Razorbacks, who went 9-4 last year, including psoting a win in the Outback Bowl. Kansas actually started the season 5-0, but then its starting QB got hurt, Conference play started and the Jayhawks went on to lose six of their last seven. But first year head coach Lance Leipold's first season is still a success. QB Jalon Daniels did return from injury and finished with 1,470 passing yards, 13 TD's and two INT's. Kansas struggled defensively, but I think it can make some plays against Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson. The bottom line is, neither team will be suiting up their entire squad, and I believe the long lay off will have a detrimental effect on these offenses; the play is the under!

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10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL)

The total in this game has come down from its opening mark, and I don't think it's low enough. Utah State will be focused on running the ball today, and that means more time will be chewed off the clock with each possessions. Memphis actually posted combined scores of under 60 over two of its final three games. In fact, these teams combined offensive scores this season add up to under 60 points. I don't think either will reach its average here. Rest leads to "rust" for sure. Granted, Memphis does have a decent passing attack. But the Aggies have hit the "under" in eight of their last nine bowl games. Expect a hard-fought, but ulimtately lower-scoring affair here; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL)

Wake Forest had a great offense and a poor defense. The offense averaged 36.2 PPG, while the defense allowed 31. The Demon Deacons though see plenty of talent leaving the offense via the transfer portal, including RB Christian Turner. Look for the time off and the new faces to throw a big "monkey wrench" into the chemistry of this Deacons' offense. The Tigers won four of their last six games to qualify. The Tigers only average 24.7 PPG, while allowing 25.7; I'm expecting a very defensive affair here, so the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER UTSA/TROY (TOTAL ROUT)

Both teams finished 11-2. UTSA went 8-0 in conference play and then won the Conference USA Championship over UNT by a score of 48-27. I feel like today's game will have a similar final combined score. QB Frank Harris had 341 yards and four TD's in the vicotry. The Roadrunners put the pedal to the metal all game, entering averaging 37.6 PPG. Troy is only allowing 17.6 PPG, but the Trojans are off a big Sun Belt Championship by smoking Coastal Carolina by a score of 45-26. QB Gunnar Watson had 318 yards passing and three TD's. The stage is set for a bit of a shootout here; this number is low the play is the over!

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10* OVER Navy/Army (TOTAL BLOWOUT)

These teams have historically played to several lower-scoring games over the last decade. Both run the triple-option, and neither will throw the ball much if at all. It's going to be blustery conditions as well in Philadelphia, but with all of that said, I still think this number is low. Navy averaes 22.4 PPG, while Army averages 29.4. Tyhier Taylor has 12 rushing TD, and the Black Knights averaged over 300 rushing yards per game. Navy uses a combination of Maasai Maynor and Xavier Arline at QB, and it's been effective as well. I believe each will come close to their seasonal offensive average here, so the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Oklahoma/Texas Tech (BIG 12 TOY)

For a number of different reasons, I expect each team to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here, and because of that, I look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. Oklahoma is off a big win over Oklahoma State by a score of 28-13, making the Sooners eligible. I don't expect them to take the foot off the gas here though with the chance for a better bowl on th eline. The Sooners average 31.5 PPG, and last year they won this game by a score of 55-21. The Red Raiders moved to 6-5 as well in a tough 14-10 win at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog. It was a gritty win and I look for Texas Tech, which averages 32 PPG, to lay it all on the line here in the final game of the year at home; it's a great situational play, as I'm expecting each team to push the pace until the final whistle; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER USF/Tulsa.

What does either team have to lose here, except another game?! With nothing on the line, even the chance to play spoiler, I look for a wide-open offensive affair, rather than an intense defensive one. Teh Bulls have lost eight in a row. Last time out they fell 41-23 to SMU. I'm envisioning a similar final combined score here as well. The Golden Hurricane enter on a three-game losing streak, most recently falling 26-10 at Memphis. Tulsa is a huge favorite here in its final home game of the season. It'll be an underdog next week in Houston. Both teams can score. USF averages 25.5 PPG, while Tulsa averages 28.2. I expect each to exceed their season offensive averages tonight; this total is low, the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (TOTAL ANNIHILATION)

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to fly "over" the number. EMU is now 6-4 and bowl eligible after its 34-28 road win at Akron last week. The Eagles though still have an outside shot at the league championship, so they won't be taking the foot off the gas here. Overall EMU averages 27.7 PPG. Kent State averages 28.7. The Flashes needed a big performance last week and they delivered in their 40-6 road win at Bowling Green. Now 4-6, Kent will have tonight, as well as next week vs. Buffalo to become eligible. One game at a time though. I don't see a lot of defense being played here. Each team is going to be aggressive and I expect this faster-paced affair to fly "over" the number before the final whistle sounds!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Alabama/Ole Miss (SEC TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect a much more defensive affair here this weekend finally. Alabama is now 7-3, while Ole Miss is 8-1. Bama lost a heart-breaking OT game in LSU last weekend by a score of 32-31 as a 13.5-point favorite. Ole Miss is off a tight 31-28 win at Texas A&M. Georgia's now in control of the SEC at 9-0. Ole Miss is actually coming off its bye week, so it's fully prepared here. Also remember, the last time the Tide lost this year, the following week they came out and destroyed Mississippi State by a score of 30-6. I think Alabama will double down here defensively as it looks to control all facets in this bounce back opportunity. LSU will also be looking to hold onto the ball as much as possible while on offense. When you add it all up, I definitely believe this Over/Under line is a few points higher than it normally would/should be; the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* OVER ECU/Cincinnati.

Both teams are eligible, but each is looking for more victories. ECU is off a 27-24 win over BYU as a three-point underdog. The Pirates average 32.6 PPG. They're coming off B2B wins, but each game has gone "under" the number. I expect those lower-scoring trends to end here this evening though against a Cincinnati team that's coming off a tougher than expected 20-10 home win over Navy last week. The Bearcats though average 33.2 PPG. Cincinnati has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is significant to note here, as the Bearcats have in fact seen the total go OVER in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UINDERS in a row. I think this number is now a bit too low, so the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* OVER EMU/Akron (MAC TOW)

For a number of different reasons, I believe this O/U line is a bit too low. Eastern Michigan is 5-4. It's 3-1 on the road. It needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It's coming off a 27-24 loss at home to Toledo, but it averages 27 PPG. Akron is just 1-8. It's off a 27-9 loss to Miami Ohio. It averages just 18.6 PPG. So why the super high total here? Akron is brutal defensively, and the Eagles also give up yards. The Zips will try to play the role of spoiler here for at least one more week. This is in fact Akron's final home game, so expect the team to open up the playbook offensively as it tries to pull off the unlikely upset. And after last week's home loss, look for EMU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finigh. The numbers/trends and the overall situation ALL point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER USA/Georgia Southern (CONF. USA TOY)

both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of an offensive affair in this one finally. USA is now 6-2 after its 31-3 win over Arkansas State last weekend. The Jaguars though average 31.6 PPG, which ranks 54th in the league. USA has a legitimate shot at the Sun Belt title, tied with Troy at 6-2 and CCU just ahead at 7-1. The Jaguars won't be taking the foot off the gas here against 5-3 Georgia Southern, which is off a 28-23 win at Old Dominion. Now just one win away from eligibility, this is a fantastic situational play here this weekend. Georgia Southern averages 36.9 PPG, which ranks 21st in the league and I'm expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish. Look for this contest to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER App State/Coastal Carolina (TOW)

App State is 5-3 and on the cusp of eligibility. It's favored by three here and I do expect the Mountaineers to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish as they try to run down eligibility with a victory. Coastal Carolina won't be rolling over. It's 7-1 and it has bigger plans for the rest of its season. A victory here over App State would just add to their resume. App State has the 20th ranked run game in the nation, averaging 208.3 yards per game. It's won three of its last four, outscoring its competition 133-20. QB CHase Brice has 22 TD's and just four INT's. CC is coming off a 24-13 road win over Marshall, but previous to that allowed 49 points in a loss to ODU. CC has a balanced offense though that can keep pace with the visiting side, ranked 46th in the nation in passing and 47th in rushing. QB Grayson McCall has 19 TD's and just one INT. These teams played to a lower-scoring duel last year, but all signs point to these competent QB's playing the starring role this season; this number is low, the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Washington/Cal (ASSASSIN)

Washington has seen the total go "over" the number in all seven of its games this season, inlcuding in its 49-39 win over Arizona last weekend. The Huskies are averaging 42.1 PPG, but I think that they'll finally come back down to Earth here vs. 3-3 Cal. Washington is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility. The Golden Bears are off a 20-13 loss to Colorado. Cal plays with "revenge" here, as Washington has won seven of the last ten in this series. Washington's defense is pretty good, allowing just 28.6 PPG. The Bears are even better though, conceding just 21.7 PPG. The "under" is 4-1 in the last five Bears games overall, and it's also 4-1 in the Bears last five following an ATS loss. Look for a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" once the smoke finally clears form this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER NIU/EMU (MAC TOM)

NIU is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. It's seen the total go "over" the number in all six of its games that it's played in this season. EMU is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, and it's seen the total go "over" the number in four of its six games this year, including in its 45-23 road win at WMU last week. Both teams have been playing to many high-scoring games this season, hence the large O/U line we have attached to this one. But I expect a more defensive affair. NIU is off a 52-32 loss to Toledo, but it's seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 50 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. EMU is very similar in that it has a good offense, and weak defense. These facts though have only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Expect a little more running, a little more defense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once the final whistle sounds!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Temple/UCF (TOW)

The UCF Knights are 4-1 and the Temple Owls are 2-3. UCF has the 43rd ranked defense, allowing 347.2 yards per game. UCF has been even better offensively though, averaging 481.8 yards per game on offense. Temple is only averaging 282.8 yards per game while on offense the Owls only average 15 PPG. UCF put up 41 points on SMU at home here last week and despite how well the Owls have played defensively to this point, I think they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. That said, look for Temple to open things up offensively here as well as it tries to keep pace. Considering all of the above situational information, I definitely feel that Friday's O/U line is low; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER FRESNO STATE/USC (NON-CONF TOY)

USC is 2-0 SU/ATS after smoking Rice 66-14 and Stanford by a score of 41-28. With a date at Oregon State next weekend, followed by the heart of the PAC 12 schedule, I am expect this high-powered Trojans offense to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Fresno State is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. It fell 35-32 at home to Oregon State last weekend as a 1-point favorite. USC hasn't won at Stanford in almost a decade, so last weekend's victory was an emotional one. Can anyone say letdown spot here?! This season the average total for USC contests is 63.3 points, 7.7 less than the over/under of this particular contest. The over/under for this game is 10.2 points more than the average over/under in Fresno State games this season (60.8 points) as well. I base my selections on many different things, but taking a "situational approach" when it comes to my totals is one of many different tactics that we employ over the course of the season. This one sets up great from a situational stand point, as we believe this O/U line to be a few points too high; the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* PAC 12 TOY ON USC/STANFORD UNDER

USC flexed its offensive muscles last week. The new coach and QB (Riley and Williams) from Oklahoma lived up to the hype. They will face a different challenge this week. Stanford ran (and passed) the ball very effectively in dismantling Colgate. The balanced offense and quality ground game will help to keep the Trojans on the sidelines. No recent game between these teams has had a total remotely close to being this high. The last four meetings here at Stanford have all finished under the total and so will this one. Defense!

AAA Sports

10* Total Of The Week on FSU/LSU Over

The winner of this game is likely going to score more than 30. The loser may even do so. If not, the losing team should still score more than 20. Seminoles are off a huge offensive display in their opening game. They put up 47 points and could have scored more if needed. The over is 5-0 the past 5x that the Seminoles scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The over is also 8-2 the last 10x that the Tigers played in the month of September. Go with the Over.

AAA Sports

10* ESPN Top Tier on TCU/Col Under

Big number for two unproven offenses. Colorado wasn't good offensively last year. The Buffaloes were shutout once last season and scored three points on another occasion. They scored 13, 20 and 20 in their final three games. They averaged 18.8 ppg and 257.4 ypg. That ranked 121st and 129th, respectively. They couldn't pass or run the ball. Ugly. TCU was better but still not amazing. The Frogs averaged 28.7 ppg, 65th in the country. They scored 17 or less in four of the final six games and 31 or less in all of those. Again, a very big total for two offenses yet to show they'll be better this year. Too big. Seven of last eight Colorado reg. season home games have finished with less than 60. Go Under.

AAA Sports

10* Big Ten T.O.Y. on Penn State / Purdue Under

Four of the Lions' last five games finished with 45 or fewer points. Six of their past seven games stayed below the posted total. The PSU offense will be committed to running the ball a lot. Offensive line with a lot of new faces though so yards won't come easily. Most recent meeting (2019) had a total of 55.5 and finished with 42. Purdue managed just 104 total yards in that game, Penn State recording 10 sacks. History repeats with another defensive battle.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* on OVER

Ohio State has had some opt outs, including receiver Chris Olave, but the nation’s #1 scoring offense (45.5 points/game) should still put plenty of points on the board in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes were also the nation’s leading team in total offense at 551.4 yards/game. They still have QB C.J. Stroud to throw the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the most talented receiver in the program. But there are now big questions about this Buckeyes’ defense after it got run over by Michigan in a loss that cost them a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game. It was the third time that the Buckeyes allowed 200+ yards rushing in a game this year. One of the previous two was in a home loss to Oregon, a team Utah crushed twice. The Utes are going to run the ball effectively on New Year’s Day; they are averaging 216 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards/carry. There were only three games that Utah failed to score at least 30 points. During their current six game win streak, they have averaged nearly 40 points/game. Return man Britain Covey had two punt returns for touchdowns and should consistently give his team good starting field position. Before their last three games all stayed Under, Utah was on an 11-2 Over run. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on the OVER

We all think we know who is going to win this CFP semifinal. Since 1978, there has been exactly one previous instance of a team entering its bowl as an underdog of 13.5 or more points despite being 10-0 or better. Cincinnati is now the second. They take on #1 Alabama, who just made an emphatic statement in the SEC Championship Game by scoring 41 points on Georgia’s top-ranked defense. The Crimson Tide average 42.5 points/game for the season. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring on Cincinnati. But the thing is, this Alabama defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years. They allowed 23.0 points/game away from home. That may not sound bad, but most Nick Saban defenses give up fewer than 20 points/game. The last three games saw Bama give up an average of 27 points. Cincinnati can put points on the board. They average 39.2 per game. They scored 35 in all but four games. Is this an obvious step up in class for them? Of course it is. But the Bearcats will score enough to help send this one Over. The Over has hit in 23 of Alabama’s last 36 neutral site games and that includes three pushes. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Both Oklahoma and Oregon have lost their head coaches to other schools and key defensive personnel will be sitting out the Alamo Bowl. So don’t go expecting a ton of defense to be played in this game. Oklahoma will be coached by Bob Stoops on Wednesday night as former protege Lincoln Riley is off to USC while Brent Venables, the former Clemson defensive coordinator and Riley’s permanent replacement, watches on. Oregon’s interim head coach will be Bryan McClendon as they lost Mario Cristobal to Miami FL (his alma mater) and Dan Lanning (Cristobal’s successor) is still coaching the defense at Georgia. Oklahoma will be minus four starters on defense, their top tackler and three sack leaders. That seems significant. Oregon is going to be without its best defensive player, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who could be the #1 pick in the next NFL Draft. The two offenses are in much better shape heading into this game and both averaged more than 30 points/game this year. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl features two teams that are a combined 23-3 this year. Both appeared in their respective Conference Championship Games. UTSA is 12-1 and won the Conference USA Title Game, beating Western Kentucky by a score of 49-41. San Diego State is 11-2, but lost the Mountain West Title Game, 46-13 to Utah State. The Aztecs usually play better defense than they showed in that last game, but missing several players because of COVID-19 proved too difficult to overcome. Stopping the UTSA offense will also be challenging. The Roadrunners put up 37.8 points/game. While they won’t have RB McCormick and San Diego State is likely the best defense they’ve faced in 2021, look for UTSA to still put up a solid number of points in this game. To this point, we’ve seen little defense played in these early bowls (typical) and the Over is 7-1 entering Monday. The Conference USA Title Game marked the fifth time since the beginning of October that UTSA scored 44 or more points in a game. The San Diego State offense may not pack the same sort of punch, but going against a UTSA defense that will be down a couple of starters is a nice break. UTSA allows 5.6 yards per play and it’s last three opponents averaged 39 points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Northern Illinois was perhaps as lucky as lucky can be in 2021. The Huskies won seven games by eight (points) or less, four of those wins coming by a total of five points including THREE one-point victories. People who measure this sort of stuff deemed NIU the luckiest team in all of College Football this year. The Huskies’ opponent in the Cure Bowl is 10-2 Coastal Carolina, a team that had an unbeaten regular season last year. A 23-3 SU record over a two-year span deserves to be marveled at and it’s why the Chanticleers are such heavy favorites on Friday. But what we like in the Cure Bowl is the Over. Coastal is averaging over 40 points and almost 500 yards per game, so they are surely capable of doing the “heavy lifting” in this one as far as points are concerned. Especially going against a NIU defense that surrenders 448.3 yards/game. But let’s not discount what the Northern Illinois offense is capable of doing. They’ve scored 30 or more in five of their last six games, including 41 in the MAC Championship vs. Kent State. More often than not, very little defense is played in these “early” bowl games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The first Conference Championship Game of Week 14 goes down in Conference USA where UTSA will host Western Kentucky. UTSA just had its unbeaten season ruined last week by North Texas in a 45-23 loss. But the Roadrunners’ spot in this game was already secure and a Conference USA title would be a big deal for this relatively “unknown” program. They’ll face a Western Kentucky that is on runs of 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in their last five games. But they did lose 52-46 as three-point home favorites to UTSA back on October 9th. We are anticipating another shootout this Friday night. The fact that the teams already combined for 98 points and 1234 yards of total offense is a nice start. Consider that in the first meeting these teams combined for eight TD drives of 75 or more yards and none went longer than 5:08. WKU averages 43.3 points/game. They’ve scored 52 and 53 points the last two weeks. UTSA averages 36.9 points/game. Them giving up 45 last week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the defense. The Over is 11-4 in the Hilltoppers’ previous 15 games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Hawaii goes for its sixth win Saturday when it pays a visit to the mainland to take on 6-5 Wyoming. These are two teams that put over more than 40 points last week. Hawaii won a wild, 50-45 shootout over Colorado State out in Honolulu. Wyoming went to Utah State and won 44-17. The home team should not have much trouble scoring points in this game. Hawaii is giving up 37 points/game on the road. Wyoming ran for 362 yards last week. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, moving the ball won’t be an issue. Hawaii’s defense gave up 651 yards to Colorado State.The Over has hit in three of Wyoming’s previous four games. This is a low total for Hawaii, who has had several games with an O/U line of more than 60 points.Their games have averaged 60.8 points this season. The offense had 535 yards last week. The number is just too low here. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

After a disappointing start to their 2021 season, East Carolina has played much better down the stretch. The Pirates have won their last three games on the field and covered their last six at the betting window. That ATS win streak is one of the longest active streaks in the nation right now and ECU puts it on the line this week when they invade Navy. The Midshipmen are NOT having a good year. They are just 2-7 straight up and those two wins were by a combined seven points over UCF and Tulsa. The Navy simply seems to have lost its “firepower” as a 34-6 loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago was the third game this year with seven or fewer points. They’ve scored more than 20 just two times and rank last in the American Conference in both scoring and yards gained. East Carolina’s game last week with Memphis went to overtime, so the 30-29 final is a little misleading. We think the Pirates won’t have much trouble shutting down Navy’s sputtering triple option, but with how much the Midshipmen run the ball, the clock will be running most of the way. That means unless ECU gets a lot of explosive plays, this will probably be a pretty low scoring game. Look for ECU to be limited on the explosive plays and for the Under to hit for the sixth straight time for Navy. The Under has also hit the last four times ECU has been favored. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Look for Houston and Memphis to trade points Friday night on ESPN2. The Cougars come in averaging 38.9 points/game. They’ve scored 40 or more in four of the last six games. The defense had a strong effort last week, holding Temple to just 8 points. But that is out of the ordinary for Dana Holgorsen’s team, which gave up 37 to SMU and 42 to South Florida the two games prior. Memphis is also no slouch in the scoring department as it averages 31.5 points/game. The Tigers’ offense has averaged 451.4 yards/game for the season, which is more than what Memphis averages. But, like Houston, Memphis has its problems defensively. They give up 35.8 points/game on the road. The last six times these teams have played, there has been at least 57 total points scored. Five times there has been 69 or more total points scored. The Over is 10-4 the last 14 times Memphis has been a road underdog. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Houston has been off a win that was by 20 or more points. This feels like a game where both teams will score 30+ points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

There’s been no shortage of points in these weekday MAC games. So when Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan hook up on Tuesday, don’t be surprised to see another shootout. Western Michigan comes into tonight off a 45-40 win over Akron last week. The Broncos are averaging 33.0 points/game in conference play, but at the same time the defense is giving up 34.8 points/game. They’ve allowed 40 or more in two straight games and three of the last five. Eastern Michigan had scored 50+ in back to back games before getting upset by Ohio last Tuesday. It will be a challenge for the Eagles defense to slow down a WMU offense that went for 533 yards seven days ago. Fortunately for the home team, it has averaged 465.7 yards over the last three games. It’s difficult for us to see either defense getting many stops in this one. Eastern Michigan is 4-1 Over L5 Tuesday games. Western Michigan is 7-1 Over L8 Tuesday games and 17-4 Over L21 November games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The last five Boston College games have all resulted in a win for Under bettors. The average number of total points scored in those five games is just 32.2! Last week was the lowest scoring game of the Eagles’ season, a 17-3 Friday night win over Virginia Tech. We realize that it’s been a struggle for them to score recently. But QB Phil Jurkovec has returned to the starting lineup and that should provide a spark offensively. BC faces Georgia Tech this week. The Yellow Jackets surrender an average of 31.7 points/game in ACC play and five of their last six have seen a minimum of 58 total points scored. So this has all the makings of the end to BC’s five game Under streak. While GT has lost three in a row, they scored 30 or more in two of the losses. They’ve also scored 30 or more in four of the last six games. When these schools played last year, the final score was 48-27 (BC won). Play on OVER

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is the only top 25 matchup on Saturday. The spot isn’t great for Auburn as the Tigers played Ole Miss last week. They won 31-20 but it was a hard fought, competitive game. Texas A&M didn’t have to play at all last week as they were on a bye. The Aggies have won three straight going back to their shocking win over Alabama. But Kyle Field is a place where Auburn has done well in the past. They’ve won all four previous visits to College Station. So we don’t see any value on either side in this Saturday afternoon showdown in the SEC. But we do love the Under, which is 9-2 in Auburn’s last 11 conference games and 9-3 the past 12 times that A&M has been off a bye. The Aggies have the #3 scoring defense in the land, giving up just 16.1 points/game. Only Penn State and Georgia have scored more than 23 on Auburn. So this one promises to be low scoring. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

There was certainly an abundance of scoring in last night’s “MACtion” with the three games totaling 225 points. We had the Over in Miami vs. Ohio, which got wild at the end with four touchdowns scored in the last five minutes. But it’s a whole different set of teams in action on Wednesday and in the case of Central Michigan at Western Michigan, we are taking the Under. To this point, neither team is seeing more than 58 combined points scored per game. Central Michigan averages 29.0 and gives up 28.4. Western Michigan also scores 29.0 points/game while at the same time giving up slightly less than CMU (27.3). We don’t expect this game to be 17-14 by any means, but the over/under line just seems a bit high to us. Central Michigan is 6-1 Under its last seven road games. Western Michigan allows only 19.8 points/game at home. Western has had two huge scoring games, one against Pitt and the other against Kent State, but has not exceeded 28 points in any of the other six. They were held to 15 by Toledo in their last game. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Ohio is 1-7 and looking to snap a three-game losing streak in MAC play. All three of those losses have been by seven points or less. Usually, this is one of the better teams in the conference. But with Frank Solich, the former head coach, retiring not long before the season started, things have gone downhill in a hurry in Athens. Rival Miami will take no pity on the Bobcats. The RedHawks have won two straight and three of four. The one loss in conference play was by one point, at Eastern Michigan. What we expect here is Ohio to end its streak of five consecutive games going Under the total. Their defense is allowing 31.1 points/game, so it isn’t very good. Take away the game vs. Akron, who is the worst team in the MAC, and the Bobcats have given up at least 28 points in every other game. The good news for the home team is that its own scoring average is up to 28.5 points/game in conference play. The Over is 5-1 in Ohio’s last six Tuesday games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

There is one team in College Football that has gone Over in all of its FBS games this season. That is Tulsa, who returns to the field on Friday off a bye. The Golden Hurricane face a Navy team whose last five games have all seen a combined point total of 47 points or greater. That’s significant because of where tonight’s O/U line currently sits. But we expect a low-scoring affair in the American Conference tonight. That may seem strange. Going over all the 2021 results for both teams, there has been just one game - Navy’s 23-3 loss to Air Force - that has seen less than 47 combined points scored. But Navy’s offense isn’t getting it done this year. They’ve put up more than 20 points just two times. They do not even average 300 yards/game. Their 279.6 yards/game average is fourth worst in the FBS! While Tulsa has scored 67 points and gained 1,000 yards its last two games, they too are not immune from a poor offensive effort. Four of their seven games have resulted in 23 or less points scored. In this game, the Golden Hurricane will not have the same number of possessions as they are used to having. This is because Navy knows how to control the clock. Tulsa’s defense only gave up two touchdowns in its last game. That one went Over only because their opponent got touchdowns from its defense AND special teams. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

This was a 44-24 game last year with ECU winning outright as an eight point underdog. That was their first win over USF since 2014. The Pirates came into last year’s meeting having lost each of their first two games by 20 or more points. Unfortunately, the win didn’t lead to any kind of turnaround in Greenville as ECU finished the 2020 season at 3-6. They’ve already matched that win total this season as they come into Thursday’s game at 3-4. USF is 2-5 and last Saturday saw them record their first win against an FBS opponent since 2019 when they beat ECU 45-20. We’re not positive as to who comes out on top this year (although it will likely be ECU), but you can feel safe in expecting another high-scoring battle. USF has scored 31+ in its last two games. But the Bulls have also given up 32 or more five times in 2021. ECU’s defense is also pretty bad, but the Pirates are averaging 33.3 points/game at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 USF games and 11-5 in East Carolina’s previous 16 conference games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Except when they played Georgia (gave up 56 points) and Liberty (gave up 36), the defense of UAB has been pretty stout in 2021. That’s nothing new under Bill Clark. The Blazers had a solid defense last year as well. The Under is 6-1 in their games this season and 5-0 the last five. They are not facing an opponent the caliber of Georgia or Liberty this week. Rice has been shutout twice and scored no more than 17 points four different times. But UAB could put this one Over themselves. Again, taking away those two games vs. Georgia and Liberty, the Blazers offense has scored a minimum of 28 points every game. They’ve scored 31 and 34 the past two games and that was against defenses that aren’t as bad as the one they face this week. Rice gave up 45 last week at UTSA. It was the fifth game this season where the Owls allowed at least 34 points. They’ve allowed 34 or more in half of their games. Give us at least one touchdown Rice and we’ll like our chances with the Over. The Over has hit in all of Rice’s previous five visits to Birmingham. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Oh hi Penn State, we’d almost forgotten about you. It’s been two weeks since the Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the year. They lost 23-20 at Iowa, a game where their four turnovers played a significant role in the outcome. James Franklin’s team got last week off to recoup and now should be ready to hand out a beatdown in State College to visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini come into this one with a 2-5 straight up record and one of those wins came back in August. That would be when we had them vs. Nebraska in the season opener and they pulled the upset. They too are coming off a bye. Despite that, both teams could be without their starting quarterbacks for this one. We still like the Over. Illinois should be used to playing without Brandon Peters at this point. Backup Artur Sitkowski was in for the first two games where the Illini put up 30 plus points. Illinois can also run the ball as the duo of Brown and McCray have gone for 748 yards. We don’t have much confidence in the Illini’s ability to defend, however. Starter Sean Clifford practiced this week for Penn State. But the Nittany Lions may not even need him. That’s because Illinois’ defense ranks last in the Big 10 in scoring, pass defense, total defense and third down rate. They allowed 493 yards in the last game (to a Wisconsin offense that hasn’t been impressive otherwise). Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State meet Wednesday night in a matchup that is very likely to determine who represents the East Division in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Coastal Carolina won the division last year and had a perfect 11-0 SU record going into the bowls. They are perfect again (so far) this year with a 6-0 SU record. Appalachian State has already lost two games in 2021, but only one in conference play and that was last week to Louisiana, which came by a rather shocking score of 41-13. The Mountaineers lost at Coastal Carolina 34-23 last year, a result that decided the SBC East Division. Coastal Carolina is even stronger this year as they have scored at least 49 points five times and averaged 54.7 points their last three games. So considering how many points App State allowed last week to Louisiana, this is an automatic ‘Over’ for us. One would expect the home team is going to score a lot more than it did last week. The Mountaineers averaged 35.2 points/game the first five weeks of the season. They are easily the best team Coastal Carolina has played this season. Both teams will have no problem getting to 30 points. The Over is 6-0 the past six times Appalachian State has been off an ATS defeat. Play on OVER

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This is a 9* on OVER

Alabama, coming off its first loss since November 2019, heads to Starkville this week to face Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide were stunned last Saturday night down in College Station, losing to Texas A&M as 15.5 point favorites. They gave up 41 points, too many to overcome, especially after falling into a two touchdown hole at halftime. But the Tide did outgain the Aggies 522-379. They put up 38 points and have now scored 31 or more every game in 2021. They should not have a problem moving the ball or scoring on Miss State, who was off last week after they went on the road and defeated Texas A&M two weekends ago. The Bulldogs’ defense has had only one good game so far. They’ve been pretty consistent on offense, averaging 27.8 points/game. Miss State has not scored many points on the Bama defense through the years, but Mike Leach is now the head coach. Leach’s offense is averaging 429 yards/game, almost all of it coming through the air. Will Rogers is the only SEC quarterback to throw for 400 yards and two or more TDs in the same game and he’s done it twice. Off a loss, Bama will come out firing but MSU can score too. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

It’s a low total Friday night in San Jose. But when you factor in that the Spartans have scored 17 or less points in four of their last five games, all of a sudden the number doesn’t look that low. San Diego State is giving up just 16.6 points/game on the year. The Aztecs rank among the top 20 nationally in scoring defense. So that’s one side of the equation. The other is how many will SDSU score? We don’t think it will be a lot. San Jose State can play some defense too, evident by the fact they are giving up just 23.8 points/game. SJSU’s defensive coordinator is Rocky Long. Long used to be the head coach at San Diego State. Both teams are unsettled at quarterback, which is something that is worth noting. The San Diego State offense has yet to have a 200 yard passing day this season. Nor has San Jose State in its last three games. The Spartans also won’t be able to run the ball very effectively in this contest as the Aztecs are permitting only 50 rush yards/game. The Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s previous five Friday night games. Should be a low-scoring affair on the West Coast. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Over the next two weeks, Appalachian State will face the other two top Sun Belt teams. Next week they’ve got undefeated Coastal Carolina at home. But tonight the Mountaineers must travel to face Louisiana. Both teams are 4-1 SU on the season with a loss to a Power 5 school. App State lost by two at Miami while Louisiana got beat by Texas 38-18. The last three ASU games have all gone Over with them averaging 40 points and 537 yards per contest. Louisiana is 4-1 Under on the year, but has averaged 38 points in two home games. Defensively, the Ragin Cajuns do struggle to stop the run. They are allowing 171 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem going against ASU, a team that averages almost 200 yards rushing/game. The road team is probably going to put a lot of points on the board here. We know that Louisiana has gone over 28 points in just one game this season, but if they were to hit that number tonight, the Over would be a virtual lock. We think it’s very possible as the Over is 4-0 the previous four times ULL has been a home underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

Here is a Saturday matchup off the radar of most. South Alabama is 3-1. Their last three games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Last week saw the Jaguars lose for the first time, 20-18 to Louisiana. We are surprised that this total is north of 50 points seeing as no USA game this season has seen that many scored. Texas State, 1-3 on the year, is coming off two high scoring games. Both were losses, one of them at home to Incarnate Word by a score of 42-34! Then the Bobcats went to Eastern Michigan and got beat 59-21. They were off last week. With an extra week to prepare, look for their defense to get back on track here. The Under is 7-1 in Texas State’s last eight games after a bye. It also helps that South Alabama has not scored more than 31 in any game this season. Texas State has averaged fewer than 20 points/game vs. FBS teams, excluding overtime. So we just can’t see this one getting to 50 points, let alone more than that. The Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last seven road games and 4-0 the last four times they’ve been off an ATS win. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Louisiana Tech and North Carolina State should be headed for a shootout Saturday night in Raleigh. Louisiana Tech is off its lowest scoring game of the season, a 24-17 win over North Texas. The first three weeks of the season saw them score at least 34 points in every game. They also gave up at least 35 in every game. NC State is off its biggest win in some time as it handed Clemson a second loss in 2021. The Wolfpack were victorious by a 27-21 margin. That was after averaging 45 points in the first two home wins. They’ve won 11 straight at Carter-Finney Stadium vs. Group of 5 teams and are 21-1 under Dave Doeren at home vs. all non-conference teams. This is a bit of a letdown spot but La Tech’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards/play. NC State should have beaten Clemson in regulation last week but the kicker missed three field goals. Look for them to score plenty of touchdowns this week. La Tech was missing its starting QB last week but coach Holtz is hopeful that Austin Kendall will return Saturday. The Bulldogs are 4-0 Over after their last four SU wins. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on UNDER

This should be a good one Friday night in the Big 10. Iowa and Maryland both come in at 4-0. Only the Hawkeyes are ranked and while they are #5 in the country, they survived a scare at home last week vs. Colorado State. It was only a 10-point win, 24-14, over a team they were supposed to beat by 24. They even trailed at the half. But we need not worry about winning by any kind of margin this week. Instead, we will simply trust a Hawkeyes defense that is third in the country in scoring (11.0 PPG allowed). Maryland QB Tagovailoa has put up some nice numbers, but has yet to face a defense as good as the one he’ll face here. When the Terps opened Big 10 play with a game at Illinois, they scored only 20 points. Lost in the talk of how good Iowa’s defense has been is how sound Maryland’s D has been. The Terps are allowing only 14.3 points/game so far. So we’ve got two of the country’s top 10 scoring defenses facing off. Iowa’s offense has scored more than three touchdowns in only one game. Against Power 5 opponents, they’ve averaged just 238 yards/game. All four of their games so far have gone Under. Maryland is 4-0 Under its last four Big 10 games. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is a game where the points are tempting. Before losing 38-21 to Liberty last year, Syracuse had won and covered five straight times vs. Group of 5 foes at the Carrier Dome. This season began with a 29-9 home win over Ohio. Dino Babers has not had much success here, going just 26-37 in six-plus seasons and 10 of those wins were in 2018. The Orange dropped to 1-10 in 2020 but have already surpassed last year’s win total with victories over Ohio and Albany. The improvement has mostly come from the defensive side of the ball, which is allowing averages of just 16.7 points and 225.3 yards/game while ranking 24th in EPA. But you can’t look past them only scoring 7 points in the loss to Rutgers. Liberty is a good team and has a good defense as well. The Flames have held each of their first three opponents to 17 points or less. But in their only road game, the offense scored only 21 against Troy. Liberty probably escapes with a win, but it’s going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Marshall and Appalachian State played each other last season. Marshall pulled the outright upset on their way to a 7-0 start. It was a very low-scoring game, 17-7, as most Thundering Herd games were in 2020. It was a team with one of the best defenses in the country but a fairly inept offense. The inept offense ended up getting Doc Holliday fired when the Herd lost their last three games while averaging 7.7 points. Under Charles Huff, the offense has been reborn this year as it is averaging 43.7 points and 603 yards per game. The defense just gave up 42 though in a loss to East Carolina last week. Appalachian State can also score as they are putting up 33.3 points/game through three weeks. So this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The O/U line for last year’s game was pretty comparable to what we’ve got here. Obviously, the teams couldn’t come close to the number last year. But this year Marshall’s offense is much better and the defense isn’t as good. Appalachian State has welcomed its best receiver (Chase Sutton) back after he sat out the 2020 season. So their offense is better this year as well. We should also bring up how Marshall’s QB Grant Wells is coming off the two best passing days of his career. Both defenses ranked in the Top 15 last year in yards/play allowed. Now they are both outside the Top 40. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

It’s been a very disappointing start for Iowa State, who opened the year ranked in the top ten. First they could barely get by Northern Iowa, a FCS school. But that 16-10 WIN pales in comparison to the embarrassment suffered last weekend when they lost against Iowa, 27-17, this time in front of ESPN’s College Gameday. The offense failing to top 17 points in either game is a real concern in Ames. Now the Cyclones are still ranked 14th in the country and that’s a lot better than where the UNLV program is at right now. The Rebels have yet to win in eight tries during the Marcus Arroyo regime and this season got off to a bad start with a 35-33 loss to Eastern Washington. Losing to a FCS school was probably even more embarrassing than what happened last week as the Rebels could only muster 10 points and 155 yards against Arizona State. This has all the makings of a low scoring affair Saturday night. Depending on the upper body injury to Doug Brumfield, whose status you should monitor, it could be Tate Martell making his first collegiate start for UNLV this week. Martell has already transferred out of Ohio State and Miami FL, so maybe it’s time to admit that the former HS Player of the Year simply isn’t that good? Whomever starts under center must face an ISU defense that has permitted an average of only 15.3 points and 288.1 yards the last seven games. Excluding non-offensive scores, the Cyclones have allowed just 22 second half points in those seven games. We don’t think their offense will score all that much here either. So the call is simple. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

This is not a great spot for the Louisville Cardinals. It is their third game in 12 days and they will be facing a UCF offense that is averaging 49.5 points and 622 yards per game. Both those numbers are second best in the country. Louisville has already allowed 43 points in a loss to Ole Miss this year. They only gave up three points last week, but that was against a FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. Given the schedule and the offense the Cardinals will face, they are very likely to give up a ton of points Friday night. Yes, UCF also played a FCS school last week. But they also put up almost 600 yards in the opener against Boise State. They put up 671 against Bethune-Cookman last week. This is a program that’s impressed us for years. They also apparently impressed the Big 12 Conference because that’s where the Golden Knights are headed, perhaps as early as 2023. QB Dillon Gabriel is 11th in the country in passing yards. Coach Gus Malzahn was a winner at Auburn and should get off to a 3-0 start in his first season here. Louisville gave up 569 yards to an Ole Miss offense that is pretty similar to what UCF runs. Rather than lay the points on the road, we’re more confident in this game going Over.. The Knights are 7-0 Over their previous seven September games. Louisville is 6-0 Over after its last six straight up victories. The Cardinals are certainly capable of scoring 30 or more points this week. They’ve scored 56 in the last six quarters. Play on OVER

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This is a 9* on UNDER

Penn State may not see a better defense all season than the one they faced last week. The fact the Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin and won 16-10 bodes really well for James Franklin and this season. But PSU did only gain 11 first downs for the game and needed a +3 turnover margin to win in Madison. They had the ball for just over 17 minutes. They will do better offensively this week against Ball State, who was a 31-21 winner last week over Western Illinois, but count on this being another low-scoring affair for the Nittany Lions. Not just because of their question marks on offense, but they also happen to have a pretty great defense in Happy Valley these days. Ball State just isn’t going to do much scoring Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The Cardinals’ only hope in this game is that Penn State is looking ahead to Auburn next week. Being in the middle of a Wisconsin-Auburn sandwich does somewhat work to BSU’s favor. It’s an experienced team out of Muncie, one that won the MAC Championship Game last December. We actually believe they can hang around … for a while. If we’re right about that, it probably means it’s a low scoring game. The Under is 6-0 in Ball State’s previous six games vs. Big Ten competition. Play on UNDER 

This is an 8* on OVER

Illinois was so kind to us in their first game when they upset Nebraska 30-22 as a 6.5-point underdog. We did not take them a second time when they faced UTSA last week. The Illini did score 30 points again. But this time the defense allowed 37. They gave up almost 500 yards at home. The defense figures to be tested again this week as it goes to Charlottesville to take on a Virginia team that’s won nine straight non-conference home games. The Cavaliers also just so happened to score 43 points in their first game. While it was against William & Mary, the fact the Hoos gained well over 500 yards is worth something. Nine different receivers caught a pass. "There's appearing to be the makings of a pretty diverse offense with a lot of different opportunities, with room to grow on the execution," UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. On the flip side, it’s very impressive to see Illinois score 60 points in two games with a backup quarterback. Sitkowski will start Saturday, but we could see Brandon Peters for the first time since the opening game. The Over is 10-4 in Illinois’ last 14 games after an ATS loss. Not only is the Over 10-2 in Virginia’s last 12 home games, it is 27-11-1 the last 38 times they’ve been favored. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Should be a ton of points in this one. Ole Miss led the SEC in rushing last season. They also have one of the top QBs in the nation, Matt Corral. We know they won’t have Lane Kiffin (COVID-19), but the personnel is strong enough to overcome the absence of the coach. Now the Rebels defense is a different story. They gave up the most yards, not just in the SEC but in the entire country! Louisville’s offense should revert back to 2019 when QB Cunningham had 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. This is his third year as the starter. Cunningham will have a big game here, if only because he HAS to. Corral led FBS in total yards per game last year. Mississippi games were insanely high scoring. They went over 40 points five times in 2020. But they also gave up more than 40 five different times. This game certainly has the potential to see both teams go for 40-plus. Five teams gained 500 yards against the Rebels last year. Play on OVER

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THis is a 10* on OVER

The marquee game on Saturday pits #5 Georgia against #3 Clemson. This game takes place in Charlotte where Clemson has won six straight times, five of those being for the ACC Championship. So they’ve got a bit of a “home field” advantage, though we’re sure they’d prefer this game to take place in Death Valley. You also might think that the Tigers wish they still had Trevor Lawrence at QB. But his replacement D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards last year against Notre Dame,a game Clemson lost but still put up 40 points. So don’t think for a second that this Clemson offense is going to struggle much to score points with Lawrence off to the NFL. JT Daniels is the Georgia QB and threw for 10 touchdowns over the final four games of last year. The Dawgs’ offensive backfield is even more talented when accounting for the loaded running back position. Both programs may be known for defense, but the coaches know it’s going to take plenty of points to win this one. Asking both offenses to top 25 points doesn’t seem like asking for too much? Georgia went Over in six of its last seven regular season games. There was only one game last year where they failed to hit 24. Clemson never scored fewer than 28 in any game during 2020. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring contest. Navy scored only 13 points in the final three games of 2020. They go up against a Marshall defense that not only had an entire offseason to prepare for the triple option, but also led the country in stopping the run last year. The Thundering Herd allowed just 96 yards/game on the ground in what was largely a successful campaign. They were also #1 in the country in scoring defense. But the Thundering Herd finished 7-3 (started 7-0) due in large part to their own offensive ineptitude. They were shut out by Rice, scored only 13 in the C-USA Championship vs. UAB and then only 10 in a bowl loss to Buffalo. This is an offense that put up 20 points or less in half of its games. All the big point totals came against really weak opponents. Navy’s defense has all of its starters from last year back and will be stout. The last three games of 2020 saw them hold every opponent to less than 300 total yards, a first for the program going back to 1997. But back to the Navy offense for a second. They are off their least productive year on the ground in over a quarter century. Marshall’s D allowed more than 17 points in just one game last year! Play on UNDER 

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This is an 8* on UNDER

Old Dominion took the 2020 season off so this is our first look at the program since November 30th, 2019 when they lost to Charlotte 38-22. The Monarchs have not won a College Football game since August 31st of 2019 against Norfolk State. Their last win over an FBS opponent was on November 10, 2018 over North Texas. The last time ODU beat a FBS team by more than three points was September 22, 2018 when they beat a Virginia Tech team that was ranked 13th in the country at the time! So we shouldn’t expect much from them in the 2021 season opener vs. Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons struggled defensively in 2020, but we aren’t expecting much from the Monarchs’ offense in this first game. Another key is offseason injuries with the Wake Forest offense. Now they will still put up points, led by QB Hartman. Just not enough to get this one Over the total. We just don’t expect ODU to score much. Wake would have to exceed 45 points for the Over to even have a chance here. In the first game of the season, we’re not seeing them score that many. Only two of the top nine receivers from the 2019 team are back. Another team that took 2020 off - UConn - was blanked in its 2021 opener last weekend. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Oregon has to be one of the “oddest” Conference Champions in College Football history. The Ducks did not even qualify for the Pac 12 Championship Game, but took Washington’s spot once the Huskies could not play. Then they went out and upset USC 31-24. Their reward is a date with the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game, that being Iowa State, in the Fiesta Bowl. This should be one of the better bowl games and we don’t think it will be as high scoring as the oddsmakers think. Over their last eight games, ISU allowed 24 points or fewer six times. The Cyclones have a strong history of going Under in bowl games. Nine of their last 10 bowls have gone Under including six in a row. The three under current coach Matt Campbell have stayed Under by a total of 40 points. We’ll side with the trends. Speaking of trends, Iowa State is 20-5-1 Under its last 26 games vs. teams with winning records. The Under is also 36-14-2 the last 52 times the ‘Clones have gone off as the betting favorite. Despite the upset win over USC, Oregon QB Tyler Shough did not look particularly good in that game. But the Ducks are coming off two straight strong defensive efforts where they held Cal and USC below 360 total yards each. Play on UNDER

This is a 10* on OVER

So we like BOTH CFP semifinals to go Over the total this year. Ohio State did not exactly face a slew of great offenses in the Big 10 this year. Well, they did face Indiana and gave up 35 points. Clemson is so much better than any previous Buckeyes opponent. Back at full strength, the Tigers have rolled to victories by 35, 35 and 24 points since Trevor Lawrence returned. The fewest points scored in any game by Clemson this season was 34. We project them to eclipse that number here as they are averaging 44.9 and an even higher number when Lawrence plays. But Ohio State also is averaging more than 40 points/game (42.5) and we think they’ll have more offensive success than you might think. The Buckeyes only hope here is to put a bunch of points on the board. The good news is that they are more than capable. They average 529 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play. They scored 38 points or more in every game but the Big 10 Championship when they were facing a stingy Northwestern defense. This will be a much higher scoring game compared to when these teams faced off in last year’s CFP semifinals as this time it’s indoors (Superdome).  Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Not only do we like the points in the Rose Bowl, we expect there will be plenty of points scored. We already detailed why we think Notre Dame will cover this game. Part of the rationale was that they’ll score plenty of points. Well, there’s no sugarcoating the fact Alabama will as well. This Tide offense may be the best in school history. They are averaging almost 50 points/game and have gone over 50 three straight games. The SEC Championship Game vs. Florida was a 52-46 final. The two times Notre Dame played Clemson, they gave up 34 and 40 points. They are likely to give up at least 41 here as Bama has hit that number in each of its last 10 tries. That means Notre Dame would have to score around 24 to both cover and send this one Over. Considering Alabama didn’t face that many good offenses this year, that should happen for the Irish. Florida was by far the best offensive team the Crimson Tide faced all year and look how many points they gave up in that one. The Over is now 22-8-2 in Alabama’s past 32 neutral site games. The Over is also 4-1 the last five times ND has been off a loss by 20 or more. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

We look to make it three straight Overs to open the bowl season. While only the two bowls we’ve played (first two) have gone Over thus far, even last night’s UFC-BYU game featured plenty of scoring (72 total points). The only reason that one didn’t go Over is that it had the highest O/U of any bowl this season. There’s just not much incentive for these teams to play solid defense this time of year. Florida Atlantic should be the latest example. While the Owls only gave up 16.5 points/game in the regular season, it was shredded in the finale for 45 by a terrible Southern Miss squad. Memphis, who is certainly capable of putting up a big number, should do so here in the Montgomery Bowl. They averaged 450 yards/game in the regular season and scored 40 or more points three different times. Interestingly, FAU is 4-0 all-time in bowls while Memphis has lost five straight bowl games. The Tigers definitely should be motivated to come out and put up a lot of points. FAU will score enough too. The Over is 14-5 in Memphis’ L19 non-conf games Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

There was no shortage of scoring in the first bowl game and we expect the same thing in bowl game #2. Our participants in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl are Tulane and Nevada. Tulane was 6-5 in the regular season, covering the spread in six of the last seven games. The lone non-cover was against Tulsa, whom they led 14-0 in the fourth quarter while getting +4.5 from the oddsmakers. The Green Wave were not only 0-2 in overtime games this year, there were also two early season games where they led by 17 or more points and still lost! But the bottom line is they still averaged more than 35 points and that Tulsa loss is the only game since September where they didn’t hit 31. Now onto Nevada, who was once 5-0, but ended up 6-2. The Wolfpack scored 34 or more in half their games. They had 20 at halftime vs. SJSU, but were shockingly shutout after that. If not for that second half blanking, they would have averaged more than 30 points/game this season. Nevada has a good QB in Carson Strong and he definitely catches a break here as the Tulane defense will be without two All-Conference selections. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

With North Texas involved, it’s very difficult to imagine the Myrtle Beach Bowl NOT being high-scoring. The Mean Green give up over 500 yards and 41 points per game. Six of their nine regular season games went Over the total. It’s a tough bowl assignment here as they’re matched up against an Appalachian State team whose three losses came to teams (Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Marshall) that are a combined 27-3 SU. The Mountaineers very much deserve to be the biggest favorite in all the bowls, but because they have the worst ATS record (2-9) of all the bowl teams, we can’t justify laying this number. Of course, North Texas hasn’t been very good at the betting window either (0-3 ATS L3), but what they are good at is offense. The Mean Green had the best passing attack in Conference USA and averaged over 35 points and 500 yards per game. But back to the defense, NT has given up a total of 140 points in its last three bowl appearances. Appalachian State will run for a lot of yards in this game, which will easily go Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The American Athletic Conference Championship Game features two defenses that are giving up less than 20 points per game. However, we think you’re going to see plenty of points come Saturday night. Cincinnati has really gotten a “raw deal” from the playoff committee as the Bearcats should definitely be ranked higher than 9th considering they are 8-0. They average 40 points/game and will be looking to make a “statement” in front of a national TV audience Saturday night. Over the last five games, Cincy has scored 36, 55, 38, 49 and 42 points. An interesting thing with Tulsa is that they avoided a lot of the top offenses in the AAC. The only loss for the Golden Hurricane was to Oklahoma State, but that was not the Cowboys at full strength (they were using a backup QB). This is a really low total and we expect Cincinnati to score at least 30 in this game. These teams were supposed to play last week, but the Bearcats had to cancel due to COVID. Had that game been played, there would be a sense of familiarity. But it wasn’t played and thus that potential edge for the defenses is not there.Tulsa is going to score enough to make sure this one goes Over as they scored at least 28 against everyone besides Oklahoma State and Navy, their first and most recent games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Despite playing only five games, Ohio State is in the Big 10 Championship Game. We have no problem with the conference changing the rules “on the fly” as the Buckeyes are clearly the Big 10’s best team. Not surprisingly, they are huge favorites to beat 6-1 Northwestern. It will be the 14th time OSU has been favored by 20 or more under Ryan Day and they’ve previously gone 8-5 ATS. Only one of those games was decided by fewer than 11 points and it was the 42-35 win over Indiana earlier this year. But it’s still a lot of points to lay in a Conference Championship Game. What we are confident in here is the Buckeyes scoring lots of points. They are averaging 46.6 per game and the fewest they’ve scored in a game this year was 38. Northwestern has a pretty stout defense, however they’ve yet to face an offense this dynamic in 2020. Expect a final score in the neighborhood of 40-20 for this year’s Big 10 Title Game as Ohio State moves on to the College Football Playoff. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times N’western has been a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

While North Texas is technically the “road team” for this game, it is being played at Apogee Stadium in Denton, which is their home. This matchup was originally going to take place on October 31st in El Paso before having to be rescheduled. North Texas has been fortunate in that this is the seventh time in nine games they’ve gotten to play at home. But they haven’t taken advantage, going just 2-4 in Denton. It’s been a rough last two weeks for the Mean Green as they’ve scored just 48 total points while giving up 40+ in a pair of losses. But we look for the defense to get a reprieve this week against a rusty UTEP offense that has not taken the field in four weeks. It’s not as if the Miners were doing much offensively before COVID wreaked havoc on their schedule. They come in averaging only 20.1 points/game. The UTEP defense has done a pretty good job at stopping the run though and that is critical when facing this North Texas offense. We see this ending up as a surprisingly low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Colorado and Arizona have gotten off to very different starts. Colorado is 3-0 and they look to keep rolling here against an 0-3 Arizona team that will be an underdog for the 19th time in 23 games under Kevin Sumlin against Power 5 competition. ‘Zona hasn’t fared too well as a dog, going just 4-15 straight up. They’ve lost a school-record 10 in a row, dating back to last season. They haven’t covered either of the last two weeks, losing by 17 points both times. Colorado is 3-0 ATS as well as SU, so it’s not a surprise that the line has moved in their direction all week long. But we’re not about to lay this many with a team that has won by only 10, 3 and 6 points. Two of those games, the Buffaloes were the underdog. Neither of these offenses are all that explosive as the Buffs have just one play of 40+ yards while the Wildcats have just one play of 34+ yards. Colorado’s offense is excellent at dominating the time of possession, but it’s red zone efficiency (13 for 13 with 11 touchdowns) isn’t likely to be maintained moving forward. That has us on the Under this week. Both teams have seen their point totals decrease every game. Arizona has an injury at QB. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The Sun Belt is really strong at the top this year. The conference currently boasts two Top 25 teams and neither is Appalachian State, who has been the standard-bearer the last couple seasons. It should be a good one Friday night in Boone, NC as App State hosts #25 Louisiana, who will be playing in the Conference Championship Game on December 19th against a Coastal Carolina team that might still be undefeated. It’ll be the third straight year for Louisiana in that game. They’ve never won it, nor have they ever defeated Appalachian State (0-8) since they became conference rivals. It won’t be easy this time either though they do average 35.0 points/game after scoring 70 last week. On the flip side, look for Appalachian State to move the ball in this game via the run. The Mountaineers are averaging 256 rushing yards per game. That’s a problem for a Louisiana defense that is allowing 170 rushing yards per game. The Ragin Cajuns have already permitted 16 rushing touchdowns and when they faced Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, they allowed 200+ yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns. Two offenses averaging more than 30 points/game merit a total higher than this. Play on the OVER

AAA