This is an 8* on the OVER

Nevada is 5-0 and leading the Mountain West Conference. By the time this game kicks Saturday night, either San Jose State or Boise State (both 4-0) will be tied with them for first place. The Wolf Pack look to stay in front when they make a trip out to Honolulu to face 2-3 Hawaii, who just faced Boise State. A 40-32 loss to the Broncos was the second time in three weeks that a Hawaii game had 72 total points scored. It was also the fourth straight game where the Warriors gave up more than 30 points. They are giving up 36.5 per game at home. Nevada is scoring 32.2 so they should definitely do their part in getting this one to the total. QB Carson Strong has thrown for 340+ yards in four of the five games. So this Over boils down to the Hawaii offense. Nevada has not faced many good offenses thus far. Hawaii has topped 30 three of its five games with the two exceptions being against two good defensive teams (San Diego State, Wyoming). Two home games have seen the Warriors score 71 points so far. Both teams likely hit 30 here. The Over is 21-8 the last 29 instances of Hawaii being a home dog and its 6-0 when they are off a straight up loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the UNDER

This is just too high of a total when one of the teams has gone Under in six straight and only averages 20.1 points/game. The team in question is South Alabama, who is 3-6 and just dropped its 4th straight last week, 31-14 to Georgia State. The Jaguars haven’t topped 17 points in any of those last four contests. Now this week’s opponent - Arkansas State - is very much a “bird of a different feather.” They are scoring 31.4 points while giving up 39.6. There have been three games this year where the Red Wolves have scored 45 or more. One of those was last week. But last week was also the fourth game where they gave up at least 45 and they lost 47-45 to Texas State. Something is going to have to give this week in the Sun Belt. Before last week’s 47-45 loss, ASU’s last games saw 47, 48 and 62 combined points scored. They scored just 20, 10 and 17. By the way, Arkansas State is also 3-6 and on a four-game losing streak. So while we’re tempted to simply say this winds up being more of a “South Alabama” game, it’s really more indicative of where both teams are at. Can’t see both getting to 30 or one getting to 40. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Oregon is undefeated heading into “The Civil War.” In a normal year, that would be quite the achievement. But in 2020, it means that the Ducks are “only” 3-0. They underperformed last weekend in a game they were favored to win by 18.5 points. They beat UCLA by just three points (38-35) and needed to force four turnovers to do so. Turnovers have been an issue for the Ducks as well as they’ve given it away six times in three games. Yet they are still averaging 38.7 points/game. They failed to run the ball effectively last week (just 88 yards on 34 attempts), but that should change this week in a game where they are basically a two touchdown favorite on the road. Oregon State has twice given up more than 200 yards rushing this year. They didn’t last week and won for the first time, beating Cal 31-27. The Beavers offense has been pretty consistent thus far, averaging 26.7 points and they’ve been between 21 and 31 in all three games. Along with what Oregon figures to score on Friday, that should be enough to propel this one Over the total. The Over is 13-4-1 the past 18 meetings and 4-0 the last four times Oregon has been a road favorite. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Bedlam has seen Oklahoma go 11-4 ATS against Mike Gundy-led Oklahoma State teams. Most of those games have been high-scoring as well. Last year’s game, a 34-16 win by OU, was the fewest total points scored in Bedlam in a decade. This year both teams are ranked in the Top 18. Oklahoma, who suffered two early season losses, has now won four straight games. They are averaging 46.1 points/game for the season and hit 62 in the last two. Oklahoma State has only one loss, 41-34 to Texas, so a win here would really put them in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 Championship Game. But winning Saturday in Norman is going to require them to score a lot of points. Oklahoma’s defense has given up 37+ in three different games, so the Cowboys should score a lot. Whether it's enough for the outright win remains to be seen. But it will be enough to help send this game Over the total. The Over is already 15-5-1 in the Sooners previous 21 home games. Play on the OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the OVER

#7 Cincinnati is undefeated (7-0) but about to embark on a three-game road trip. They better not take UCF too lightly this week. This will be the first time UCF is an underdog in a regular season game since 2017 (ends a 39-game streak). Though unranked, the Golden Knights are always a threat to put a ton of points on the board. They lead all of NCAAF in total offense with 619.1 yards/game. That’s close to an all-time single season record. UCF has averaged 44.3 points per gameduring their current three-game win streak. While Cincinnati’s defense is top 10 in yards allowed and top three in scoring, a big reason for that is they have not faced many good offenses. UCF will easily be the best offense they face all season. Lucky for Cincy then that they too are capable of putting up a ton of points. They put up 55 last week on East Carolina, which was the 4th straight game with 38 or more. We think both teams are going to hit 30 here, so that means a play on the Over, which is 4-1 the last five times that the Bearcats have been road favorites. Play on the OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Air Force hosts New Mexico Friday night with both teams still looking for their first conference win. Air Force has won a game in 2020 as they shockingly beat Navy 40-7 in the season opener (were +6.5). But that was on October 3rd and the Falcons are 0-2 since. After a three-week layoff, they lost 17-6 to San Jose State, then the following week brought a 49-30 loss to Boise State. They are off another three-week layoff here. New Mexico is 0-3 and lost 12 straight games going back to last season. They can’t even play in Albuquerque with COVID concerns forcing them to relocate their home games to Las Vegas. The Lobos lost their Sin City debut last week, 27-20 against Nevada, but did at least cover the spread for a second consecutive game. In addition to the COVID-19 issues both teams have had to deal with this season, New Mexico and Air Force also enter this Friday night game with injury concerns at QB. It’s not like we’d expect much from either offense anyway. The Over has hit in seven straight meetings between these two schools, but the Under is 4-0 in New Mexico’s last four Friday games. Air Force is also 6-1 Under its last seven times it has been the favorite. Under is the call here. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

This game may very well end up deciding the MAC West. Both Western Michigan and Central Michigan are 2-0. After a 58-13 blowout win over Akron in the opener, Western Michigan pulled a rabbit out of the hat for us last week against Toledo. Central Michigan has also covered the spread in both of its wins, 30-27 over Ohio U (were underdogs) and 40-10 over Northern Illinois. Another constant for both teams is lots of scoring. Western Michigan has totaled 99 points in two games while Central Michigan has scored 70. The Western Michigan offense is averaging a stunning 8.0 yards/play, led by QB Kaleb Eleby, who is completing 71 percent of his passes. The Over is 5-0 in the Broncos previous 5 Wednesday games and 6-2-1 their last nine road games. The Over is also 6-1 in the Chippewas last 7 Wednesday games. Their offense has been no slouch either, averaging 5.7 yards per play. Here they go up against a defense that just gave up 500 yards last week. This should be a back and forth, high-scoring game. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Colorado State is 1-1. They lost 38-17 to Fresno State in their opening game, but then bounced back to defeat Wyoming 34-24 last week in the annual “Border War.” Boise State (2-1) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with an embarrassing 51-17 home loss to BYU. But it's critical to point out that the Broncos were down to their third string quarterback last Friday and their top running back was also injured. Whether or not the injured players will return this week remains unknown, but we believe Boise coach Bryan Harsin will put together a solid enough game plan to put points on the board Thursday night. The third stringer, true freshman Caleb Fennegan, wasn’t actually all that bad vs. BYU. He threw for two touchdowns and completed 15 of his 26 passes. Colorado State is a much easier opponent than BYU and if called into duty again this week, Fennegan will at least be ready. Boise scored 91 points in its first two games. Colorado State is allowing 448.5 yards/game. No matter who the QB has been for Boise State, they’ve always dominated the Rams. They’ve won all nine meetings and averaged 44.5 points/game in doing so. CSU should score enough to help send this one OVER. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Clemson vs. Notre Dame has lost some of its luster with Trevor Lawrence not playing (COVID). But it’s still a top five matchup that should be plenty of fun. D.J. Uiagalelei is Lawrence’s backup. Clemson still put up 34 last week in his first start. We realize this is a tougher defense than Boston College and the true freshman’s first road start. But don’t fool yourself into thinking the Tigers aren’t going to put up a decent number here. Uiagalelei threw for 342 yards and two scores last week. Travis Etienne is the ACC’s all-time leading rusher. Notre Dame’s defensive numbers, somewhat, are a byproduct of facing a string of bad offensive teams. But Clemson’s cause is done no favors by the injuries on their defensive side. Notre Dame is averaging almost 35 points/game. Ian Book is a really good QB and the Fighting Irish are going to score more than most previous Clemson opponents. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

Baylor was down 30-0 last week (at home!) to TCU last week before it decided to wake up and “start playing.” By then, it was obviously too late and they still ended up losing 33-23. Now the Bears go to Ames to face Iowa State, who won 52-22 last week against Kansas. The Cyclones just barely covered the spread in that one, scoring a late TD to push them over the four TD threshold (spread). They aren’t scoring that many this week. Not even close. Kansas is the worst defensive team in the Big 12. On the bright side, ISU isn’t likely to give up that many either. Baylor has averaged 20.0 points/game the last three weeks, all losses. They haven’t scored more than 23 against anyone besides Kansas. They can’t run the ball (75 or less rush yards in all three games). Under is 31-16-2 in the past 53 games where Iowa State is the favorite. It’s also 5-0-1 the last six times they’ve been off a win by 20 or more points. 9-1-1 after a game where they scored 40 or more points. Baylor is 6-1-1 Under off a SU loss. Under is 4-1 last five meetings. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

Southern Miss is now on to its THIRD head coach of the season, which should tell you all you need to know about the season they are having. The Golden Eagles are now 1-4 and the 56 points allowed to Liberty last week wasn’t even a season-worst. (They allowed 66 to Tulane).  Rice is 0-1 after its now famous “quadruple doink” (missed FG) against Middle Tennessee last week. They lost 40-34 in overtime. But despite that score and how many points Southern Miss has been allowing, we think this game stays Under. For Rice, last week was the most total points in any game since 2017. Their defense was actually quite good in 2019 as it yielded an average of just 24 PPG in conference play. Some key absences in the secondary last week led to a worse than expected performance on third down. They should do better this week against a Southern Miss team that is in tatters. While Southern Miss has given up at least 31 points in every game, we’re not sure Rice gets there this week. The Under is 7-3 for Rice the week following an ATS loss. Southern Miss is actually favored here and the Under is 7-2 the last nine times that’s been the case at home. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

While it would be accurate to say both BYU and Houston come into this Friday night matchup “undefeated,” it’s also a tad bit misleading. BYU is 4-0, but Houston is only 1-0 after finally opening its season last Thursday. Still this should be a pretty exciting game. After rolling through its first three games (Navy, Troy, La Tech) by a combined score of 148-24, Brigham Young was finally tested last week and it was by perhaps the unlikeliest of opponents. UTSA, a 34-point underdog, hung close in what was a 27-20 final. That said, BYU did move the ball a lot in that game, gaining 476 yards. But they had issues finishing drives. They fumbled inside the red zone on the opening possession, then turned it over on downs (in UTSA territory) on the second. Don’t worry about a Cougars offense that is averaging 7.8 yards per play thus far. Nor should you worry about a Houston offense that put up 49 points last week despite its own early troubles. QB Clayton Tune had two 1st quarter turnovers (INT, fumble) that were returned for Tulane touchdown, but recovered to throw for over 300 yards. The BYU defense just allowed a season-worst 287 pass yards against UTSA and Tune should easily eclipse that mark. Look for a lot of fireworks in this one. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

The ACC will be front and center on Saturday as four of its five ranked teams will square off in a pair of marquee matchups. While Va Tech-North Carolina may not get the same amount of press as Miami-Clemson, the former figures to be a tight game and we think it’ll be a little lower scoring than expected as well. North Carolina’s first two games have both stayed Under. The key here will be their run defense, which is ranked #1 in the country, stopping Hokies running back Khalil Herbert. Herbert, a transfer from Kansas, had 212 yards rushing and a school-record 358 all-purpose yards in last week’s 38-31 win over Duke. That’s more than double the number of rush yards this Tar Heels defense has allowed in two games. UNC allowed just 22 total points to Syracuse and Boston College. While Virginia Tech is better than either of those teams, their offense can certainly be one-dimensional. The QB situation is unsettled and they completed only nine passes vs. the Duke defense. The Hokies won’t be scoring anywhere close to the number of points we saw from them in the first two games nor will this one be anything like last year’s 6OT marathon with the Tar Heels, which Va Tech won 43-41. An interesting note about the game, which was the longest in ACC history: it was just 29-29 at the end of regulation. The Under is 8-3 the L11 times the Hokies have been a road underdog. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 8* on OVER

Kansas State and Texas Tech had different results last Saturday, but both games were certainly high scoring. Kansas State pulled off what is - to this point - the upset of the season in College Football with a 38-35 stunner over Oklahoma. It wasn’t just that the Wildcats won as a four-touchdown underdog, but how. They came back from a 21-point second half deficit in Norman! Later in the day, Texas Tech happened to blow a late double digit lead against Texas and lost in overtime 63-56. That they lost was no matter to us. We had the Red Raiders plus the points and they easily covered. In fact, at no point during the game were they NOT covering. Facing each other this week, Kansas State and Texas Tech may have trouble duplicating the excitement of last week’s contests, but this should certainly be another high scoring one. Remember that not only did TT give up 63 points last week, they also permitted Houston Baptist to gain 600 yards in the season opener. Kansas State has given up 35 points in both of their games. We see both teams scoring 30+ again this week and that makes for an easy Over. The Over is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

BYU is coming off two consecutive 7-6 seasons and this may be the most experienced (and talented) team Kalani Sitake has had yet in Provo. Last year did end with a 38-34 loss in the Hawaii Bowl (to Hawaii), however, the Cougars offense really turned it on down the stretch by scoring 31 or more points in five of the last six games. Sitake’s team opens the season all the way across the country in Annapolis against Navy. The Midshipmen won 11 games and beat Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl last year. That was a big bounce back from the 3-win season that was 2018. They averaged 37.2 points/game last season, a three year high under coach Niumatalolo. This game was not originally scheduled for 2020. While both teams have some holes to fill on offense, look for a relatively high-scoring game Monday night. We saw several teams on Saturday put up big point totals and not look adversely affected by the lack of practice time. BYU is 3-0-1 Over its last four games against American teams. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Nevada got hit with multiple suspensions for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against Ohio, most of them on the defensive side of the ball. Four are defensive starters and three players will miss the entire game while LB Sewell must sit for the first half. These suspensions came about due to a fight with UNLV in the last regular season game. It's not just different players that coach Jay Norvell is being forced to turn to on that side of the ball. Essentially, it's an entirely new staff on the defensive side of the ball coaching this game. Virtually all were let go after losing to UNLV.  But throughout this bowl season, we've seen replacements "step up" when needed. This total has gotten too high not to go Under. Some of that has to do with what Ohio did in its last two regular season games when they dropped a total of 118 points on Bowling Green and Akron. But those are two of the worst teams in the country. Nevada's offense only averages 21.3 points/game, which could be a bigger problem than the defense. They averaged just 18.0 points/game outside of Reno. The Under is 6-1 in the Wolf Pack's previous seven bowl appearances. Play UNDER Ohio-Nevada

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

This total is too low. Even though we are still believers in Georgia's defense, it was shredded by LSU in the SEC Championship Game and that memory is difficult to shake. Baylor put up 35 points per game this year and was 10-0 against everyone but Oklahoma. QB Charlie Brewer, who exited the Big 12 Championship Game with a concussion, has been cleared to play to in the Sugar Bowl. We obviously need not worry about whether or not the Bears will be motivated. This is their first Sugar Bowl since 1957 and what a transformation it has been in just two seasons under coach Matt Rhule, who is sticking around in Waco despite all the NFL speculation. Georgia may have some key players sitting this one out, but last year's Sugar Bowl loss to Texas still lingers and that will have them motivated this year as well. The Over is 4-1 in Baylor's past five bowl games. Play OVER Baylor-Georgia

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER 

Minnesota was one of the biggest surprise teams in the country, starting 9-0 before losing two of its final three regular season games. But Auburn may be the best team they will have faced all season. The Gophers certainly haven't gone up against a better defense. Yes, Auburn gave up lots of yards and points in the Iron Bowl. But Minnesota doesn't have the same kind of offensive talent Alabama does. Before facing Bama, the Tigers hadn't allowed more than 24 points in a game all year. Minnesota did not finish with more than 19 points in either of its two losses. A lot of the Gophers success on offense this year came about because of its ability to convert on third down, which we feel they'll struggle to do in this game. So as long as Auburn's offense doesn't explode, we're looking at an easy Under in the Outback Bowl. That shouldn't happen as the Tigers don't average a ton of points outside of Jordan-Hare. Play UNDER in Minnesota-AUBURN

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We've got the two longest winning streaks in all of the FBS on the line here as Clemson has won 28 straight games and Ohio State has won 19 in a row. But we also have two teams with top five scoring defenses. Clemson gives up just 10.6 points/game while again OSU isn't too far behind, allowing just 12.5. There is a pretty clear cut case to be made that neither defense has faced an offense as good as the one they'll be up against in this year's Fiesta Bowl. But this total still seems high to us. The Tigers haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game all season. Remember that they shut Ohio State out, 34-0, in the Playoff three years ago. That semifinal was played on this very field. The Buckeyes aren't going down that easy again and could very well win thanks to their defense which is considerably better than anything Clemson saw in the weak ACC. The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers' four previous semifinal appearances. The Under is also 4-1 in Ohio State's last five bowl games. Play UNDER Clemson-Ohio State

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The respective offenses in this game couldn't be more different. Washington State loves to pass. Air Force loves to run. Neither defense has seen an offense like the one they will see Friday night in the Cheez-It Bowl and this has created the expectation for a shootout. But we believe this total to be too high. Air Force has a pretty good defense and it's not like it doesn't face a lot of pass-happy offenses in the Mountain West. The Falcons give up 19.8 points/game and held Hawaii to 26 in Honolulu. No one scored more than 30 against them in the regular season. Now will Washington State's defense be sound enough for this game to stay Under? Most are going to say "no," but it will help if Air Force RB Timothy Jackson misses the game. Washington State could also be without one of its leading receivers. It would be crazy to think that this will be a low scoring game, but with a number this high, there is room for an Under. Washington State has not scored more than 28 points in any of its last four bowl games. Play UNDER Washington State-Air Force

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

UAB and Florida Atlantic will play Saturday in Boca Raton for the Conference USA Championship. These are the two previous Championship Game winners with FAU winning in 2017 and UAB winning last year. Obviously, Florida Atlantic has an edge with this Championship Game being played at home. Conference USA is one of only three conferences that play its Title Game at a campus site (American and Mountain West are the others).  Though conference rivals, it's not like UAB and FAU are regular opponents. They haven't met since 2014. From 2008-14, they did play six times. All six games went Over. We believe this one is going to go a little differently.  UAB has a great defense. They give up only 18.5 points/game. Problem is the offense struggles to score big time when it is on the road. There were back to back games at Tennessee and Southern Miss where the Blazers managed only nine points - total! UAB only faced four teams that are bowl eligible this year. The most points they scored in any of those games was 20.  Florida Atlantic surged down the stretch and has won five in a row coming into Saturday. They've averaged an impressive 37.4 points/game during that win streak. But look for the Owls to be held well below that number here. At the same time, three of those five wins saw them allow 17 points or less. Given what we know about the UAB offense, that's a realistic number here. Play UNDER UAB-Florida Atlantic

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

Georgia will be playing LSU in the SEC Championship Game next week, but first they've got this date with Georgia Tech. It shouldn't be a very difficult game as the Yellow Jackets are struggling this year. We look for the Bulldogs to score a lot of points in this one, many more than they've been scoring against SEC defenses. Georgia Tech used to run the option under Paul Johnson, but has transitioned to a more pro style offense under first year coach Geoff Collins. As you'd expect, it's been a difficult transition with personnel fit for the old system. The Yellow Jackets are averaging only 17.5 points/game. But they did just score 28 in win over NC State last week. QB James Graham accounted for all four touchdowns, three throwing and one running. Georgia hasn't scored more than 27 points in six straight games. But look at some of the defenses they've had to go up against. Georgia Tech is giving up over 30 points/game, so expect this to be a big day for QB Jake Fromm and the rest of the Bulldogs offense. Georgia did score at least 30 in four of its first five games including 55+ in the two non-conference games that weren't Notre Dame. Six straight Unders is the streak Georgia is on coming into this game. It's time for the offense to finally get rolling again. They've scored 83 on Ga Tech the last two years and can send this one Over by themselves. Play OVER Georgia-Georgia Tech

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Missouri's season has completely gone off a cliff with five straight losses. Adding insult to injury, their bowl ban for 2019 was just upheld. Had the ban been overturned, the Tigers could have gotten to a bowl by winning the regular season finale.If there's one team in the SEC that's definitely in worse shape than Mizzou, it's Arkansas. The Razorbacks already fired their coach and a loss today would mean a second consecutive 2-10 season. With nothing on the line but alleged "pride" Friday afternoon in Fayatteville, we expect plenty of points to be scored in this one. Really, does either side have any pride left? Arkansas just lost its first game for interim Barry Lunney Jr, 56-20 to LSU. They at least covered as 40+ point underdogs. But it was the fifth straight game the Razorbacks allowed at least 45 points. Mizzou will relish facing a defense like Arkansas's as the Tigers have had all sorts of issues scoring during their losing skid. At least last week they got to 20 points against Tennessee. The previous four games saw the Tigers a total of only 27 points. We'll call for their best offensive performance since October 12th here.  The Over is 7-2 in Arkansas previous nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (Missouri hasn't won on the road in 2019.) The Over is also 10-4 when the Hogs are off an ATS win. Play OVER Missouri-Arkansas

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The annual "Border War" between Colorado State and Wyoming is renewed Friday night. Despite being in different states, the schools are just 65 miles apart. Wyoming is CSU's most common opponent with Rams holding 58-47-5 all-time series edge. But the Cowboys have won three years in a row, including 34-21 in Ft. Collins last season. Colorado State comes into Friday needing to win its last two games to get bowl eligible. That's probably not going to happen as next week they face Boise State, whom they've never beaten. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be expecting some fireworks out of the Rams this week. Last Saturday night at Air Force, Colorado State had an early 14-0 lead. But they couldn't hold on and ended up not even covering due to a late pick-six that made the final score 34-21 in Air Force's favor. It was the fewest points scored by the Rams since facing the tough defense of San Diego State. Turnovers were also costly for Wyoming last week as they had four of them in a 26-21 loss at Utah State. The good news for the Cowboys is this game is at home where they are 5-0 and averaging 33 points.   Wyoming lost its starting QB (Sean Chambers) a few weeks ago and has a pretty stout defense. That may lead some to believe that Under is the correct call here. But you can look for the Cowboys to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. CSU gives up 206.7 rush yards per game. Wyoming averages 220 rush yards per game. Both teams will find ways to score here. Play OVER Colorado State-Wyoming

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Hawaii games have seen a spike in scoring over the last month with five straight games going Over. Every one of those five games saw at least 79 total points scored. Oddsmakers have been slow playing catchup as not even an absurd 78.5 could keep the Warriors and San Jose State Under last week (Hawaii won 42-40). But this week should finally be the time where the scoring subsides. UNLV is the opponent this week. The Rebels don't have any chance of making a bowl and Tony Sanchez may be coaching his final games out in the desert. The Rebels just can't seem to put it together offensively. Six of the last eight games have seen them held to 17 points or less. If UNLV is held to anything close to 17 points this week, then this will be an easy Under. Hawaii can't go Over themselves. They've scored more than 45 points only one time in 2019. Hitting the mainland, we expect Hawaii's offense not to be as prolific as recent weeks. The home team is on a 9-1 run in the series and that includes a 35-28 Hawaii win in Honolulu last year. Four of the last five meetings have seen 72 points or less scored. UNLV is off a bye, but that hardly matters. They are going nowhere fast. Redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad isn't the answer at quarterback. Play UNDER Hawaii-Nevada

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Tennessee has shown it still has a pulse by scoring 71 points the last two weeks. (They also won both games) Kentucky is off a bye, so their offense should be as healthy and ready as its been in some time. With a low total, we like this game to go Over. Part of Kentucky's problem this year has been at quarterback. But they have found a solution in the most unique of ways. Receiver Lynn Bowden Jr was moved over to QB and has dazzled with back to back virtuoso performances. Bowden has RUN for 400 yards in two starts. It's something the Tennessee defense is going to have trouble prepping for. The Wildcats haven't exactly faced the most impressive slate of offenses recently and the game vs. Missouri two weeks ago took place in a downpour. It's worth noting that before UK's last five games went Under, the first three all went Over. Tennessee has shown it can score the last two weeks. The 41-point effort against South Carolina was especially impressive. This is the third year in a row that Kentucky is favored to beat Tennessee. Before that, they'd been favored just once in 50 years! The Vols are 3-0 ATS in those three games as dogs and they've also scored at least 24 points the last five meetings, including three games with at least 49 points. Play OVER Tennessee-Kentucky

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

These schools have met just one time. It was last year and Coastal Carolina won 30-28 as a three-point underdog. That was on the road. This year, the Chanticleers get to host the Ragin Cajuns, but are actually much bigger underdogs. Louisiana has been one of the best ATS teams in the country this year. They are 7-1 ATS. The only game they didn't cover was against Appalachian State, a 17-7 loss. The only other team to beat them was Mississippi State back in the first game of the season. While this won't be the highest total for either team, ULL has gone Under in three straight games. They also haven't allowed more than 25 points in any game since that loss to Mississippi State. Coastal Carolina has been quite the opposite with five of their last six games going Over the total. Their defense hasn't been great. Home games, on average, have tended to be lower scoring though. Look for Louisiana to run the ball a lot in this game. They'll be effective at doing so, but it will also keep the clock moving. Play UNDER Louisiana-Coastal Carolina

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

This will be the first time since 2010 that Toledo hasn't had to lay double digits to Kent State. It's only the fourth meeting since then for the in-state rivals, but the short price shouldn't come as a total shock. Toledo has suffered some bad losses this year while Kent State looks improved. They've been outscored by 41 points in four MAC games, but if Toledo wins out they could very well win the West Division for the second time in three years. The problem is a leaky defense that has given up 86 points the last two weeks. After getting lambasted by Ball State (52-14), the Rockets barely beat Eastern Michigan last week, winning 37-34 in overtime. Toledo averages 35.2 PPG at home, which is two full touchdowns more than what they average outside the Glass Bowl. Kent State's defense is giving up nearly 500 yards/game on the road, so this easily could turn into a shootout Tuesday night. Last year was a 56-34 game, won by Toledo, who was an 11.5-point favorite. The Under is 6-0 in Toledo's last six Tuesday games. That's about to change. Take away the dreadful effort against Bowling Green (on the road) and the Rockets have scored plenty in almost every other game. Kent State took some lumps against Power 5 teams, but is an improved team on offense. Play OVER Kent State-Toledo

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

This rivalry may not mean what it used to, but the games are generally closely contested and emotions still run high. Florida State won a series record seven straight from 2010-16, but has lost the last two. The road team has won 9 of the last 13 matchups and 15 of the last 17 have been one-score games. Despite this, the favorite is 7-1 the last eight years. Neither team is ranked right now. But Miami is off a big upset win over Pitt, bringing them to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. They beat Pitt 16-12 despite gaining only 208 total yards. That was the third time this season that the Hurricanes won a game in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Their four losses have all been by seven points or less with the difference being they've allowed an average of 30.5 points in the four losses as opposed to 8.25 in the four wins. Florida State is off a 35-17 win over Syracuse. They too are 4-4 overall, but they're 3-3 in conference play. The Seminoles have scored 31 or more points in all four wins this year while being held to just over 22 points/game in the four losses. With FSU being favored in this game, we should expect one of the better offensive showings. It's just the way it seems to work. It's interesting that their last five games have all stayed Under. But totals for those five games were all much higher than this one. This will be the lowest total for any Florida State game this season. While quarterback is a question mark for both teams, the running game isn't. Cam Akers has run for more than 300 yards in the last two games for Florida State. Miami RB DeeJay Dallas, who didn't play last week, averages 6.7 yards per carry. It is important to note that Jarren Williams is starting at QB for Miami. He began the season as the starter before hurting his shoulder. Williams is better than N'Kosi Perry, whom he replaced last week and then led the come from behind victory. Play OVER Miami-Florida State

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Northern Illinois is having a down year. Really, so is the entire MAC. Central Michigan has been one of the few pleasant surprises in the conference. After going 1-11 last season, the Chippewas are 5-4, but they did lose badly last week 43-20 at Buffalo. That came after three straight games scoring at least 38 points. The game at Buffalo still did go Over though, so that's four Overs in a row for CMU. Northern Illinois has gone Over three straight as they did all the scoring last week against Akron in a 49-0 win. But that was Akron. The Huskies aren't exactly a high-scoring outfit. They average just 21.2 points/game at home. They had only 71 yards passing against Akron, but didn't need any more than that as they had two defensive scores. Central Michigan also allowed a defensive score in its game last week. They also gave up two more touchdowns on drives that started inside their own 25-yard line. Take those defensive scores away and all of a sudden the games are a lot more low scoring. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-Central Michigan

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Playing the Over here is the ultimate contrarian call seeing as Cal is 6-1 to the Under and so is Utah. Cal's last three games have all gone Under. So have Utah's last five. But this is a REALLY low total for a College Football game being played in 2019. Utah has had some games with totals in the 60's. This will be the lowest total in any game for either team this season and could close as the lowest total all year in College Football the way things are going. Only two Utah games this year have seen less than 42 points scored. One was a shutout of Idaho State, who is a FCS team. The other was last week's 21-3 win over Arizona State. Cal definitely struggles to put points on the board and will probably struggle here too. But they can score enough to get this one Over. Yes, we know they may have to turn to an untested starter. But this number is just too low not to bet it Over. Play OVER Cal-Utah

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

SMU is one of the highest scoring teams in the country at 44.3 points per game. The fewest points they've scored in any game this year was 37 and that was in the very first game. Since then, it's been at least 41 in every game. With a range of 37 to 49 points scored in all games, the Mustangs have certainly been consistent. All seven of their games have gone Over so far. No other team has gone Over in every game. In all four of Houston's losses this year, they've allowed at least 31 points. If you take away Houston's two weakest opponents this year, which would be Prairie View A&M and Connecticut, the defensive numbers get real ugly. But help is on the way offensively as QB Clayton Tune is set to make his return to field. The last game Tune started and finished, the Cougars scored 46 points. They may not be as high-powered as they were when D'Eriq King was the quarterback, but Houston should still be respected offensively. They should score in the 30's while SMU should top 40 and that means the Over will hit again for the favorite. Play OVER SMU-HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER

It's the usual late start out in Hawaii (11 PM easter) with Air Force making the trip out to Honolulu. Both teams enter this game with a 4-2 record. However, one won last week (Air Force) while the other (Hawaii obviously!) lost. The only thing the last two Hawaii games have in common is the winner scored a lot of points. It was them putting up 54 in thrashing of Nevada on September 28th. But then they gave up 59 last week to Boise State. Air Force obviously runs a much different offense than most teams with the triple option. While the Flyboys have scored 40 or more in every home game, they are averaging just under 25 PPG on the road. The run first approach should theoretically shorten this game. Last week, the Falcons attempted only three passes in their 43-24 win over Fresno State. They did run for 340 yards. But this total is much higher than all their other games this year. Hawaii has been involved in some wild ones so far, but they've also faced three Pac 12 teams + Boise State. Most of the offenses they go up against the rest of the way will be weaker than what they've already gone against. Don't discount the effect the trip itself might have on the Air Force offense. Hawaii has one of the most unique home field advantages in the sport. These two high-powered offenses should each "slow down" a bit Saturday night. Play UNDER Air Force-Hawaii

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Louisiana was the last team in the country to lose a game ATS. The loss happened last week at home to Appalachian State (who is still undefeated straight up), 17-7. It was quite the departure offensively for a Ragin Cajuns team that had scored 35 points or more four games in a row. They were held to just over 250 total yards as well. Appalachian State had the answer for what had been a dominant Louisiana run game, holding them to just 123 yards on 33 carries. For us, the game was a 45-point win on the Under! You'd hope that game at least provided a blueprint for Arkansas State, who has struggled defensively in 2019. Virtually all of the Red Wolves games this year have been high-scoring. The fewest total points scored in any ASU game is 55 and that ironically saw them allow all 55 (shutout loss to Georgia). Oddsmakers have taken note, however, and jacked up the O/U for this game. The Red Wolves have scored 90 points the last two years against Louisiana, but this game promises to be lower-scoring. The Ragin Cajuns defense has allowed more than 25 points in just one game and that was vs. Mississippi State. They are the top Sun Belt defense in terms of points allowed and just outside the top 30 nationally. While most are going to anticipate this being a shootout, you can look for it to stay Under as that's what 11 of ASU's last 16 conference games have done. Play UNDER UL Lafayette-Arkansas State

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

This is an insanely low total for a College Football game in 2019. Consider that Wyoming is averaging 31 points/game on its own, which would be basically just a touchdown shy of the number. Now we don't expect the Cowboys to score that many against San Diego State. This team is a very misleading 4-1 as they have been outgained in four of five games. Before beating UNLV 53-17 two weeks ago, the Cowboys had trailed by double digits in all four games. The defense gives up over 400 yards and is lucky to be allowing only 20.4 points/game. San Diego State has seen all five of its game stay Under so far and their participation is what has this total so low. Going back to last season, the Aztecs have had their issues scoring. But they should rediscover the end zone multiple times against this Wyoming defense. The Aztecs have scored at least 23 points in all three wins this year and are off nice road win against Colorado State. QB Agnew threw three touchdowns in the 24-10 win.  The Over has hit 8 of the last 11 times these schools have met and not once was the total lower than it is here. By kickoff, there's a strong chance that this total will be the lowest for any NCAAF game played so far this season. Let's be honest here. It won't take much to send the game Over and with the game taking place in San Diego, you know the weather will not be a factor. Play OVER Wyoming-San Diego State

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Once again, the Pac 12 is not looking very strong. Oregon is probably the best the conference has to offer and they are ranked #13. The Ducks only loss was to Auburn, a game they led virtually the entire time. Since that loss, they've battled back to win four in a row, even though QB Justin Herbert really hasn't been as good as advertised. Last week, the Ducks were held to a season low 17 points in a win over California. That was a good defense they were up against though and Herbert did extend his streak of games with at least one touchdown pass to 33. The Ducks also gained over 400 yards and had double the first downs Cal did. So it was a pretty impressive win. Expect them to find more offensive success this week against a struggling Colorado defense that hasn't seemed to keep anyone in check. Five games have seen the Buffaloes be remarkably consistent, giving up between 30 and 35 points. We project it to be very likely Oregon scores more than 35 in this game. The Ducks defense has also been consistent - consistently good that is. They've allowed a total of 22 points the last four games, giving up no more than 7 to any one opponent. But Colorado can score. They average nearly 35 points/game. All but one of Colorado's games have seen 65 or more total points scored. There's likely to be a lot of Overs involving Colorado moving forward and this should be one of them. The have a QB in Steven Montez who is on pace for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Play OVER Colorado-Oregon

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

This is an early season showdown in the Sun Belt and we're glad to see it get the national spotlight it deserves. Appalachian State is a team you probably are aware of as the Mountaineers first made their presence felt over a decade ago (then as a FCS team) by upsetting Michigan. It's been a successful transition to FBS and the Sun Belt Conference as they are 35-6 their last 41 league games. They have won or shared the SBC regular season title each of the last four seasons. Already this year, the Mountaineers upset one Power 5 team (North Carolina), part of a 4-0 SU start. But Wednesday is probably their toughest test of the season as they are facing a Louisiana team that has covered the spread in all five of its games so far, beating the oddsmakers expectations by about 70 points. The only loss for the Ragin Cajuns this year was the opener 38-28 to Mississippi State. Since then, they've scored 35 or more in every game, their last three all going Over. Similarly, App State has scored 34 or more in all four of its games and the last three have been Overs. But with a high total and high stakes, we're gonna call for the game Wednesday night to be lower-scoring than expected. Last year, this was a 27-17 game, won by Appalachian State. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings. The Under is 14-5 the last 19 times App State scored more than 40 points their previous game (beat Coastal Carolina 56-37). The Under is 4-1 the last five times Louisiana has been coming off a bye. Play UNDER Appalachian State-Louisiana

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

UAB will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss it suffered last week at Western Kentucky. The Blazers were three-point favorites, but went down by a score of 20-13 thanks in no small part to turning the ball over four times. All four turnovers were interceptions thrown by QB Tyler Johnston III. They led to just six points (two field goals) by WKU, but it could have been worse as one came at the end of the first half. It was a big step back for Johnston, who had thrown for over 300 yards each of the previous two games. It was also UAB's 1st Conference USA loss since the meaningless regular season finale against Middle Tennessee last year. Before that, the Blazers had won 11 straight conference games. They are unbeaten at home since the program returned to the field in 2917 (14-0 SU). Rice meanwhile is still searching for its first win of the year as they are 0-5 against what has been a challenging schedule. The Owls have just three wins going back to 2017, but have generally been more competitive in 2019. They took Louisiana Tech to OT last week, for example. But the defense is still giving up a 68.3% completion rate to opposing QB's and 6.3 yards per play. So sfter scoring a season-low 13 points last week, we look for the UAB offense to rebound here. This was a 42-0 game last year. Look for Rice to definitely get on the board Saturday and them doing so should be enough to help this one get Over a low number. The Over has hit each of the last four times the teams have met here in Birmingham. Play OVER Rice-UAB 

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

After suffering a tough loss to Georgia last Saturday night, Notre Dame should resume scoring in bunches against a Virginia team that comes in ranked a highly questionable 18th overall. The Fighting Irish scored 101 points in their first two games including 66 in the only one played so far in South Bend. They were held to 17 by Georgia, but that's an elite defense they were facing there. Virginia certainly doesn't have a bad defense as they've yet to allow more than 24 points in a 4-0 start. But this number is too low based on what we see for most Notre Dame games. Even against Georgia, the total was 58. Virginia has scored at least 28 points in every game, so it may take a big number from Notre Dame to win this one comfortably, let alone win it at all. The Over is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 non-conference games. Last week's vs. Old Dominion featured a slow start, but once the Cavaliers offense got going, it wasn't going to be denied. The Over is also 6-1 the last seven times Virginia has played on the road against a team with a winning home record. Notre Dame isn't about to score 66 again this week, like they did two weeks ago vs. New Mexico. But they should score plenty as they look to bounce back from the loss to Georgia. Virginia won't go quietly though. Play OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

After two games, the Maryland hype train was in full effect. They'd put up 142 points in a pair of wins, one of them 63-20 over Syracuse. But that hype train then got stuck in the station in a 20-17 road loss to Temple two weeks ago. We'll now get to see how Mike Locksley gets his team to perform off a loss. The Terrapins will face a Penn State squad that had its own impressive first two weeks on offense before playing a game vs. Pitt that they easily could have lost. They only beat the Panthers 17-10 and that came on the heels of a lackluster first half the week prior against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions have destroyed the Terps each of the last two years, outscoring them 104 to 6. No you didn't read that incorrectly. We think the last game for each team showed that neither offense is invincible here. We're not going to be seeing the video game-like numbers from the first two weeks. Both defenses might be underrated as Penn State has given up only 30 total points in three games while Maryland has given up just 40. The Terps last four Friday games have all stayed Under. Play UNDER Penn State-Maryland

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Temple is going to have to guard against a letdown here as last week they upset a heavily hyped Maryland team, 20-17 as 5.5-point home dogs. That game set up pretty well for the Owls as they were off an open date. Now let's see how they perform having to play in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. While Temple has covered both of its games, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS. Two weeks ago, they actually led Penn State at the half, 10-7. Since then, it's been all downhill as they've been outscored 73-20. That includes a bad 35-17 loss at Liberty last week where the Bulls were favored by 5.5 points. We figured UB would struggle early on this year as they lost their starting QB and two receivers from last year. That they have with just 30 total points the last two games. But both were on the road. They actually gained 429 and 373 yards in those two games. So they've moved the ball. Back at home this week, they should start finding the end zone more. Temple's defense turned in a tremendous performance last week vs. Maryland, but that's the side of the ball where the letdown could take place. The Owls offense has averaged 561 yards/game so far. The Over is 10-4-1 in Buffalo's last 15 home games. Last year was a 36-29 win by Buffalo at Temple. Play OVER Temple-Buffalo

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Houston and Tulane have combined to play six games this year. The Under is 6-0. Houston is 1-2 straight up, thanks to a tough schedule to open the season, which has seen them already face Oklahoma and Washington State. The Cougars only win was against a FCS team and a bad one at that (Prairie View A&M). Tulane lost to Auburn in Week 2, but won its other two games, one of which was against a FCS foe. They also opened the season by beating FIU 42-17. Given that kind of scoring output, we think it's pretty reasonable for the Green Wave to score a lot this week. They also hung 58 on Missouri State last week. Houston not surprisingly is no offensive slouch either as they're averaging over 30 points/game. But a defense that has given up 80 points to its two FBS opponents is a cause for concern. This is a really low total for a game involving Houston. The first three all saw totals in the 70's. That the number has been bet down is a break for us. Play OVER Houston-Tulane

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the OVER

For the second year in a row, Cal beat Washington and both times they did it with defense. Last year, it was a 12-10 win without an offensive TD. Last week, it was 20-19 on a last-second FG, a game that was delayed nearly 2 1/2 hours because of weather. This defense, led by one of the better secondaries in the country, is quite clearly pretty good. But this week we feel it will be the offense's turn to show what it can do as it faces a North Texas defense that isn't the least bit good. The Mean Green gave up 52 in the bowl to end last year and lost some key players from that defense. That poor bowl performance looks to have carried over into 2019. The first game, they gave up 31 points and 456 yards to Abilene Christian. It got worse last week in a visit to SMU where they got torched for 49 points and 503 yards. Luckily, UNT does have an offense with a senior QB Mason Fine that can put points on the board. While it's the worst defense Cal has faced yet, it's also the best offense. Fine has guided the offense to 78 points in two games. He's thrown for nearly 8000 yards the last two seasons and is the school's all-time passing leader. This O/U has been bet down several points. While its understandable because of Cal's defensive effort last week, it's too low. Take the OVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Minnesota and Fresno State met last year and it was a 21-14 win for the Golden Gophers at home. Fresno State would lose just one other time the rest of the season, to Boise State, and would later avenge that defeat in the Mt West Champ Game. Now they get a shot at avenging the other loss and this time they get the Gophers at home. We expect it once again to be a low-scoring affair. Minnesota barely gained 300 total yards in an unimpressive win over South Dakota State in the opener. Fresno State scored 23 in its loss to Southern Cal. The only games they scored fewer last season were the two losses and the win over Boise State. Minnesota has one of the better defenses they'll see all year and the Bulldogs have just three starters back on offense. The Under is 19-7 in Fresno's last 26 games overall. It's also now cashed in Minnesota's last five games. This should be a late-night slugfest. Play UNDER Minnesota-Fresno State

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Alabama plays Duke Saturday afternoon in Atlanta as part of the Chic Fil-A Classic. We do not expect the game to be close, nor do the oddsmakers, but we're not in the business of laying this many points in a season opener either. With Duke breaking in a new starting QB, they are really going to struggle to score points here. Making matters more challenging is that the Blue Devils lost a starting wide receiver (Jake Bobo) to injury three weeks ago. So expect very few points to be scored on the Duke side against what is still one of the best defenses in College Football. As for the other side, Alabama scored at will (until running into Clemson in the Championship Game) last season, but often called off the dogs late when the game got out of hand. We can see a similar situation arising here, which obviously helps when holding an Under ticket. Also, Duke does have eight of last year's starters on defense back, plus a former All-ACC CB (Mark Gilbert) that missed virtually all of last season.  "I'm more excited about this defense than any defense we've had in the 12 seasons," head coach David Cutcliffe said. That defense won't be enough to keep Duke in this one, but this will be a lower-scoring affair than anticipated. Play UNDER Duke-Alabama

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

It might be unheard of to lay this many points in a season opener against a conference opponent. But if ever there were a time for it, it would be here with #1 Clemson facing Georgia Tech. The Tigers are defending National Champions and will be favored by double digits in every game this season. The Yellow Jackets are going through a transition. They're going from the triple option to a more pro scheme, run by 1st year coach Geoff Collins. Expect growing pains and for Ga Tech to be the worst team in the ACC this year. Clemson beat Ga Tech by 28 last year and that was in Atlanta with Kelly Bryant at quarterback against a team running the triple option. Now its Trevor Lawrence in at QB for Clemson and a Ga Tech offense with pieces fit for a different scheme. The Yellow Jackets simply aren't going to score many points here and with the game in little doubt in the 4th quarter, expect Dabo Swinney to call his dogs (or Tigers as it may be) off. Play UNDER Georgia Tech-Clemson

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Florida had a big jump in wins under Dan Mullen, going from 4 to 10 in his debut year in Gainesville. Mullen had some fortuitous things go his way though, such as inheriting 19 starters from the Jim McElwain regime and a +12 turnover margin. This year's Gators look like they'll be stronger on the defensive side of the ball. The same holds true for the opening week opponent, Miami, who sees Manny Diaz making the jump from defensive coordinator to head coach, replacing the retired Mark Richt. The Hurricanes only gave up 19.5 points/game last year as it is and didn't allow more than 21 in any of Diaz's three years here as the defensive coordinator. Florida enters #8 in the country. Miami is breaking in a new starter at QB with transfer Tate Martell coming over from Ohio State. This isn't an easy first start. Mullen engineered a tremendous offensive turnaround in his first year with the Gators jumping 86 spots in points/game, the second largest jump ever in FBS. Even with QB Franks back, we're not confident they match last year's number (just five offensive starters return). The Under is 7-1 in Miami's last eight neutral site games and 6-0-1 in the last seven games overall. Play UNDER Florida-Miami

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER in Eastern Washington-North Dakota State.

The FCS Championship Game features a matchup of 12-2 Eastern Washington and 14-0 North Dakota State. The Bison are prohibitive favorites here and for very good reason; they'll be gunning for a record-tying seventh National Championship. Just like Alabama has owned the FBS under Nick Saban, NDSU has owned this level with all six championship wins coming since 2011. I don't think there's much value to be had playing the pointspread, but I do like the total as this should be a high-scoring affair at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX. North Dakota State is a machine running the football as South Dakota State found out in the semifinals three weeks ago. The Bison ran for 439 yards in that game and now face a EWU defense that is only so-so against the run and may even have its starting nose tackle. There were only three games this year where the Bison did not score 34 points. They've scored at least 44 four times in the last five games. Meanwhile, Eastern Washington just put up 50 in its semifinal win over Maine. It was the sixth time this year they scored at least 48 points in a game. Will they get that many here? Probably not, but playing catchup, they'll score enough to help get this one past the number. Play the OVER in Eastern Washington-North Dakota State

AAA

This is a 10* play on the Under in Texas-Georgia

#15 Texas (9-4) meets #5 Georgia (11-2) in the Sugar Bowl, one of this year's better bowl matchups. I'm expecting a low-scoring game tonight in NOLA. Without a doubt, Georgia is going to be the best defense that the Longhorns will have faced all year. The Bulldogs allow just 18.2 points per game. Yes, they'll be missing their top corner (declared for NFL Draft) and coordinator Mel Tucker took the head coaching job at Colorado. But it's not like the Horns have the most explosive offense. On the other side, the Texas defense has had to deal with some very high-powered offenses this year in the Big 12. So they won't be intimidated here. The Under is 48-23 in the Longhorns last 71 games overall, including 19-7 the L26 games on field turf. They held Oklahoma below its season scoring average in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia has gone Under in 7 of its last 10 bowl games. Play TEXAS-GEORGIA UNDER 

AAA

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER South Carolina/Virginia.

Virginia opened the year 6-2, but it finished 7-5. The Cavaliers can erase the stink of “what could have been” with a big victory today though and we’re fully expecting them to push the pace from start to finish. In their final regular season loss, QB Bryce Perkins had 259 passing yards and three TD’s, along with 112 rushing yards. The Gamecocks are coming off a 7-5 season and they hold on for an easy win over Akron in their finale. Note that the Cavs have seen the total go OVER the number in their last five neutral site games, while the Gamecocks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last nine when playing with three weeks or more rest on a neutral field. This number is a little high, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Duke/Temple.

Temple was 8-4 on the year, including 7-1 in AAC play, while Duke went 7-5, and 3-5 in ACC action. The Owls come in on top form having won three straight, outscoring their opposition 143-73 in those games. Overall Temple averages 35.6 PPG and it allows 24.7. Duke will be hungry here to get back into the winners circle after back-to-back “duds” to finish the season, falling 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 at home to Wake Forest. The defense has been a problem for the Blue Devils, allowing 504 yards and 43 points per game average over its final three games. Note that Duke has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four non-conference games already this year, while Temple has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last ten played on “turf.” This number is low; play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER between Louisiana Tech and Hawaii.

Hawaii had a great year, finishing 8-5, while Louisiana Tech was 7-5. Louisiana Tech backed its way into the bowl season with back-to-back losses to Southern Miss and WKU, while Hawaii won its final two games of the year over UNLV and SDSU. The Bulldogs will be leaning heavily on their run game while on offense to keep the Warriors offense off the field of play. The Warriors averaged 32.1 PPG, but Louisiana Tech allowed just 23.8. The longer time off throws a “monkey wrench” into the Warriors offensive chemistry in our opinion. Note as well that LT has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five already this year as a road underdog, while Hawaii has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER between Marshall/USF.

I think the extra time off for USF, which opened the season 7-0, but which finished 0-5, will do it good here. The Bulls will have had time to game-plan and to get a handle on their QB situation (with starter Blake Barnett a question mark still.) Marshall finished 8-4 and is the more complete team on both sides of the ball. We’re expecting a wide open affair between these two hungry teams. Note as well that Marshall has seen the total go OVER the number in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six as an underdog. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Ohio and SDSU.

Both teams rely on a strong run game while on offense. The Bobcats’ entire offensive identity revolves around star RB AJ Oullette, who had 1,142 rushing yards and 12 TD’s this season. SDSU is ranked fourth nationally in stopping the run, but Ohio will have little choice here. The Aztecs were hampered by injury this year, but RB Juwan Washington is back to play in this one and he’ll be out to make a statement in our opinion. Note as well that Ohio has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after two or more SU wins, while SDSU has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four vs. teams with winning records. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Georgia Southern/EMU.

EMU finished 7-5, but with three straight victories to end the season. Georgia Southern also comes in with a ton of momentum after finishing 9-3 and back-to-back winver over Georgia State and Coastal Carolina. Last week Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts and RB Wesley Fields would combined for 226 rushing yards and two TD’s. EMU’ QB Tyler Wiegers finished with 1,887 passing yards and an 11/3 TD/INT. Note though that EMU has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four already this year after two or more SU wins, while Georgia Southern has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last eight when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. Look for each of the Eagles to open up the playbook and for this one to fly OVER sooner, rather than later.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between Stanford/Cal.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Stanford has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of its last 27 as a favorite, while Cal has seen the total go UNDER in 12 of its last 20 after playing two straight conference games and in four of five already this season after playing a game at home.

The bottom line: The Stanford Axe is at stake. This game was supposed to be played in mid November, but the wildfires in California postponed it till now. Look for the offenses to come out a little flat. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Utah/Washington.

This is the Pac 12 Championship Game from Golden State. Utah posted a 35-27 come from behind win over BYU last Saturday, while Washington earned its way to the Championship by posting a 28-15 road win over WSU on Friday. The Huskies won 21-7 over Utah on the road in mid September, but we’re expecting a much more wide open and higher-scoring affair this weekend. Utah averages 30.8 PPG and it allows 19.2, while Washington averages 28 PPG, while allowing just 16.5. Two of the best defensive teams in the nation, but we still think this number is low, as note that Utah has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six after a road win of ten points or more. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between Louisville/Syracuse.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats:

As note that Louisville has seen the total go UNDER the number i eight of its last 12 vs. teams with winning records, while Syracuse has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last seven off a win against a conference rival and in all six games that it’s played in of late after two or more consecutive SU wins. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Stanford/Washington.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats:

As note that Stanford has seen the total go OVER the posted number in nine of its last 14 against teams with winning records and in seven of its last nine as an underdog, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49. 

The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams and we’re expecting a war until the end. Look for this one to sneak OVER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the UNDER between Ball State and Toledo.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: 

As note that Ball State has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last three as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range, while Toledo has seen the total go UNDER in nine of 14 off a win against a conference rival.

The bottom line: Both team’s starting QB’s went out with injury last week as well. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between Ball State and Ohio.

In 2015 Ohio won this matchup 48-31. We expect a similar final combined score here as well. Ball State is 2-2 in league action after a 42-20 setback to EMU last week, while Ohio is now 2-1 in MAC play after its 49-14 win over Bowling Green at home in its latest action. The Cardinals are ranked 67th in the country in points allowed and 97th in scoring with 25 PPG average. The Bobcats are averaging 36.3 PPG and they’re allowing 31. Ball State is going to have its opportunities to move the ball today against an Ohio team which will be happy to push the pace. Interesting to note that Ball State has seen the total go OVER in its last four games it’s played on a “Thursday night,” while Ohio has seen the total go OVER in its last two as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between New Mexico and Colorado State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that New Mexico has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after a conference game, while Colorado State has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 14 as an underdog (including in all three games it’s been a dog in this season.)

The bottom line: The numbers and overall situation that each finds itself in does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the OVER Air Force/SDSU.

These are two decent defenses going up against two offenses which rely on the run to set up the pass. All of that said though, we’re expecting a higher-scoring shootout between these two normally lower-scoring schools. Air Force is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing 22. SDSU is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 19.8. Note though Air Force has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 13 on the road and in six of its last ten as an underdog, while SDUS has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 13 off a win against a conference rival and in eight of its last 13 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between BC and Wake Forest.

Both teams are 2-0, blowing out their weak non-conference opponents. Each team features a balanced offensive attack and both have above-average defensive units. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics. 

As note that BC has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in ten of its last 16 against conference opponents, while Wake Forest has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and in nine of its last 14 against the conference. 

The final summary: The situation and the numbers point to the UNDER as the savvy call here. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* O/U MASSACRE on the OVER between VT and FSU.

VT and FSU both finished with winning records in the ACC, but each lost its bowl game last year. The Hokies averaged 28.2 points and allowed only 14.8. Note though that the entire unit that posted those unreal numbers from last season is gone. Duplicating those numbers in 2018/19 will be impossible for VT. The offense looks primed for a big showing though with the return of QB Josh Jackson, who had nearly 3,000 yards passing and 325 rushing last year. FSU averaged 27.8 PPG and it allowed 21.2. The defense returns most of its starters, as does the offense, including Deondre Francois under center. We believe each team takes a step back defensively this year; play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between New Mexico State and Minnesota.

New Mexico State lost 29-7 in its home opener this past weekend and we think it’ll have issues scoring here as well. Minnesota will look to take advantage as it looks to better it’s 5-7 record from last year. The Aggies just looked plain terrible on both sides of the ball last week. QB Matt Romero was 16 of 27 for 140 yards and a TD, while the run game posted -9 yards. The defense was a bright spot for New Mexico though and the unit should continue to progress with seven returning starters. The Golden Gophers are ranked sixth in the Big Ten. The QB position is in a bit of an upheaval for Minnesota though, as freshman walk-on Zack Annexstad has been named the starter shockingly. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Rodney Smith all year, as he had 977 rushing yards last season. Overall Minnesota struggled offensively though with an average of just 22.1 PPG. While the offense did indeed struggle, the defense was decent and it will be a strength of a team in 2018/19 as well with several starters returning (note that the Gophers gave up just 22.8 PPG last season). This one has “chess match,” written all over it. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Stanford and USC.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Stanford has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as an underdog this year and in five of its last six when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (fell 42-24 to USC earlier in the year), while USC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range this season and in four of six against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: These teams blew way posted the posted number in the first game in September and all signs point to another high-scoring shootout in our opinion. Stanford is out to avenge the earlier loss and will be pushing the pace from start to finish as it looks to keep up with the high-flying Trojans. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little low. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between NC State and Wake Forest.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that NC State has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of six against conference opponents already this year and in three of four as an underdog, while Wake Forest has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last when playing against a team with a winning record.

The bottom line: Both teams are bowl eligible. At 7-3, NC State would need to win its next two games, along with Clemson (9-1) dropping its final two, to earn the Atalantic crown of the ACC. The Tigers play the Citadel this week and then against South Carolina to close the campaign, so there’s no way Clemson drops both, let alone either. Wake Forest is 6-4, sitting a game behind the Wolfpack, but after posting their sixth win of the season in last week’s 64-63 win at Syracuse last Saturday, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot  for the Demon Deacons. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on the OVER between Tulsa and South Florida.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Tulsa has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while USF has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six following its bye week.

The bottom line: With a week off to prepare and refocus for the final push before a game against league leading UFC next weekend, we look for USF to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Tulsa has nothing to play for here, but will also be looking to open up the playbook with the slim shot at playing spoiler. This number is a litte low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER between Toledo and Bowling Green.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Toledo has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine as a road favorite, while Bowling Green has seen the total go UNDER the posted number in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points.

The bottom line: Bowling Green has nothing to play for. Not even the role of spoiler this weekend for motivation. Toledo on the other hand will be vying for the Conference title in a few weeks and won’t want to leave anythig to chance here. We look for the Rockets to “control” this game while on offense and we look for this total to indeed fall UNDER this sky-high number once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Central Michigan and Kent State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that CMU has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU wins and in seven of its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while Kent State has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU losses and in eight of 14 off a loss against a conference rival. 

The bottom line: Handicapping at this time of the College Football season for us mainly comes down to which side is more motivated than the other. Central Michigan just punched its ticket to bowl eligibility in last week’s 42-30 victory over EMU and is poised for a predictable letdown. Kent State has nothing left to play for either at this point. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Georgia Southern has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 18 when plaing on six or less days rest and in three of its last four “Thursday night” games, while Appalachian State has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last five following a conference contest and in three of its last four Thursday night contests.

The bottom line: Georgia Southern is 0-8 and we don’t think even has the motivation left to try and play spoiiler. App State on the other hand is running out of time to become bowl eligibile, so will be looking to punch its ticket today with a convincing victory. We’re expecting the home side to control this one whenever possible. This number is indeed a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Toledo and Ohio.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Toledo has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last ten as a  favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range (including in two of three this season) and in 13 of its last 20 against the conference, while Ohio has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 as an underdog and in 14 of its last 21 against the conference.

The bottom line: The 8-1 Rockets face off against the 7-2 Bobcats. Ohio leads the East and Toledo leads the West. When these teams played last year it was Ohio that scored the 31-26 win at home. With so much on the line today, we’re expecting another battle and a similar final combined score here as well. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER between Clemson and NC State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Clemson has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 12 as a road favorite and interestingly in four of its last seven games played in the month of November, while NC State has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six home games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 56 points and in five of its last seven in front of the home town crowd overall.

The bottom line: NC State is 4-0 in the Atlantic division of the ACC, with Clemson right beind at 5-1. North Carolina State is 6-2 overall, while Clemson is 7-1. To say this is a big game would be a pretty big understatement obviously. Clemson has been getting the job done with a nation leading defensive units, but we think NCA State is going to push it out of its comfort zone today. In what we expect to be an all out battle to the end, all signs do indeed point to a higher-scoring shootout. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between Marshall and Florida Atlantic.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong Over/Under ATS statistics: 

As note that Marshall has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last seven off a loss against a conference rival (fell 41-30 to FIU last week), while FAU has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 16 at home, including in three of four this season.

The bottom line: Marshall won its sixth game and then had a letdown last week. With that predictable loss behind them, the Herd look to get back on track here. The Owls have won four straight, but have just five wins on the year. FAU needs one more victory to become bowl eligibile and its also playing with revenge after falling 27-21 to Marshall last year. It’s an important game for these division rivals and in our opinion all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL THUNDER on the UNDER between Northern Illinois and Toledo.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Northern Illinois has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and in eight of its last 13 as an underdog, while Toldedo has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 24 as a favorite and in eight of its last 11 against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: Both teams are bowl eligible, but each has bigger plans moving forward with conference title implications on the line. We’re banking on these highly motivated teams to battle tough and for this one to ultimately fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER between Buffalo and Akron.

Neither team has played to many “overs” this year, as Buffalo has seen the Over/Under go 3-5, while Akron has seen it go an amazingly lop-sided 0-7. Buffalo is 3-5 SU, while Akron is 4-4. Buffalo is coming off a 24-14 loss to Miami Ohio on the road, while the Zips enter off a 48-21 road loss to Toledo. Note that when these teams played last year, it was the Bulls that pulled off the 41-20 win. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting a similar final combined score here as well also. The Bulls will be pushing the pace today as they look to break a three-game slide. Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease had 202 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Note that so far the Bulls are ranked 24th in the nation in passing with 265.9 YPG, while averaging 26.6 PPG, while the defense allows an average of 25.1 PPG. The Zips are averaging just 22.9 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Last week Akron gave up 626 yards of offense to the Rockets. QB Thomas Woodson was 18 of 33 for 205 yards, with two TD’s and an INT. Despite all of the lower-scoring UNDER’s each team has been playing to of late, note that Buffalo has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Akron has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of its last six as a favorite in teh 3.5 to ten points range. This number is just a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between Syracuse and Miami Florida.

Syracuse comes in off a confidence building 27-24 upset win over Clemson, while Miami enters off a 25-24 win over Georgia Tech. These are two schools which come in on top form and we’re expecting each to open up the playbook this afternoon. Orange QB Eric Dungey was particualrly impressive last weekend, going 20 of 32 for 278 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. So for Dungey has 2,080 passing yards and a 12:4 TD:INT. The ‘Cuse defense looked great, however it should absolutely be noted that Clemson starting QB Kelly Bryant left before the end of the first half with concussion symptoms. The Hurricanes had to storm from behind and win on a late field goal as time expired to knock off the Yellow Jackets. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting the team to carry that momentum over here. Travis Homer had 170 yards rushing for the Orange, while Malike Rosier was 23 of 37 for 297 yards, one TD and no picks. The defense looked good as well, but we think it’s going to be put to the test this week against the red hot Dungey and company. Note that Syracuse has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range, while Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. This number is just a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Marshall and MTSU.

The 5-1 Marshall Thundering Herd have seen the Over/Under go 3-3, while the 3-4 MTSU Blue Raiders have seen it go 0-6-1. While neither team has been in many high-scoring affairs yet this season, we think the conditions are now finally right for that to change this evening. 

Marshall: The Thundering Herd most recently come off a 35-3 spaning of ODU last weekend. Marshall allows 321.8 YPG and averages 373.3 of its own. QB Chase Litton had 176 yards, three TD’s and no picks last weekend and so far he has 1,382 yards, 13 TD’s and three INT’s overall.

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders are coming off a 25-23 road loss at UAB. MTSU averages 20.4 PPG and allows 355.1 YPG. RB Brad Anderson has 367 rushing yards and three TD’s. MTSU QB John Urzua has 1,302 yards passing, six TD’s and eight INT’s. 

The bottom line: Note that Marshall has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four road games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while MTSU has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six off a loss against a conference rival. This number is just a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RED DRAGON” on the OVER between Memphis and Houston.

Memphis has seen the Over/Under go 4-2 this year, while Houston has seen it go 0-6. Last week Memphis posted a 30-27 win over Navy, while Houston is coming off a 45-17 loss at Tulsa. Note that when these schools played last year, Memphis would hold on for the high-scoring 48-44 road win and suffice it to say, we’re expecting another high-scoring shootout here as well. Memphis averages 40 PPG and Houston should have a lot more success moving the ball today against this sub-par Tigers’ defensive unit. Note that Memhis has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Houstno has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three against teams with winning records. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the OVER between Clemson and Syracuse.

Clemson comes in off a 28-14 win over Wake Forest at home last weekend, while Syrcuse rallied for a 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh. When these teams met last year, the Tigers smashed the Orange 54-0. Syrcuse is a better team since then and will be out for a little revenge this evening.

Clemson: So far the Tigers rank 40th in the nation in scoring with 35.0 PPG, while ranked fifth in the country on the defensive side in conceding just 11.3 PPG. QB Kelly Bryant should be good to go in this one after tweaking his ankle next week. The Tigers’ vaunted defense though is going to finally be tested today by this “pass-happy” Orange offense. Note that the ground game wracked up 190 yards last week, so if Bryant isn’t able to suit up, the offense is still going to be fine, especially facing this weak Syracuse defensive unit.

Syracuse: The Orange are ranked 56th in the country in overall offense with 32.0 PPG, the pass offense is ranked 13th in averaging 325 YPG. The defense is allowing 24.3 PPG, ranked 54th. QB Eric Dungey was 33 of 49 for 365 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has 1,802 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. He also leads the team on the ground with 325 yards and another eight major scores. 

The bottom line: Whether Bryant plays or not, we think this explosive and deep Tigers’ offense is going to have its opportunities today. We also expect Dungey to continue his progression and push this Clemson defense to its limits. Note that Clemson has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 11 on the road, while Syracuse has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 21.5 to 31 points range. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUN-BELT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between South Alabama and Troy.

Both teamshave struggled to points on the board this season, as USA has seen the Over/Under go 1-4, while Troy has seen it go 0-5. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. While the “Law Of Averages” is flawed in many ways, we’ve always been of the mind-set that lop-sided numbers/trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long-term. Also note that South Alabama has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 18 as an underdog and in its last six against teams with winning records, while Troy has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three following its bye week. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between Memphis and UConn.

This total is just a little high in our opinion. UConn has lost three straight and will be desperate to stop the slide. Memphis won three straight to start the year, before getting crushed by UCF last weekend.

Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson has completed just 55.4 percent of his passes and has already thrown five INT’s. He does have 1,104 yards and nine TD’s, but regardless, he’s been sloppy and will be looking to get back on track tonight. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the Tigers, so far the team has posted 183 yards per game average thus far, led by Darrell Henderson.

UConn: The Huskies were tied with SMU 28-28 early in the fourth quarter last week and then ended up losing 49-28. QB Bryant Shirrefs was 22 of 28 for 408 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. 

The bottom line: Note that Memphis has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while UConn has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between Arkansas State and Georgia Southern. 

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Arkansas State has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 16 as a favorite and in eight of its last 11 against teams with losing records, while Georgia Southern has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last 11 as an underdog and in four of its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: So far these teams have struggled to put points on the board, but the extra time off between games sets up perfectly for a higher-scoring affair. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between Illinois and South Florida.

For a number of different reasons, we believe this number is a little low.

Illinois: The Illini looked sharp in their 20-7 win over WKU last week. Illinois had a 300-244 yardage advantage over the Hilltoppers. So far Illinois has struggled offensively, ranked 100th in the FBS by averaging 22 PPG. The defense has so far allowed only 14 PPG, ranked 28th overall, but clearly the unit faces its stiffest test of the young season. 

South Florida: USF’s game against UConn was delayed last week due to Hurricane Irma. In their previous game the Bulls would outscore Stony Brook 24-7 in the second half for the decisive victory. So far USF is 43rd overall in scoring with 36.5 PPG, while ranked 50th in allowing 19.5. QB Quinton Flowers is 30 off 55 overall for 400 yards with four TD’s and one INT, as well as adding 137 yards and a TD on the ground.

The bottom line: Note that Illinois has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three when playing on six or less days rest, while USF has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four following a layoff of two weeks or more. All signs point to this one going OVER as the game comes down the stretch.

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This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between OK State and South Alabama.

Both teams come in off high-scoring affairs and while we might also see a bit of a shoot-out in this one, we ultimately believe this number is just a little high.

Oklahoma State: OKS smashed Tulsa 59-24 on Thursday. The Cowboys had 640 yards of offense in Week 1, but with a tough non-conference game at Pittsburgh next weekend, a team that the Cowboys beat 45-38 last season, it’s not too hard to imagine the visiting side getting caught “looking ahead” to that more difficult/important matchup. 

South Alabama: The Jaguars fell to Ole Miss 47-27 on Saturday. It was 13-10 at half time, but SA was outscored 27-3 in the third quarter. QB Cole Garvin was 19 of 31 for 204 yards and a TD, while adding 18 yards and two scores on the ground.

The bottom line: Note that OKS has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven on the road, while SA has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after allowing 46 points or more in its previous game. As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of scenarios that we keep our eyes out for. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Clemson and Alabama.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Clemson has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five non-conference games this year, while Alabama has seen the total go UNDER in four of five in the same position.

The bottom line: Alabama will look to control this one while on offense so as to keep DeShaun Watson and the Tigers’ dynamic offense off the field for as long as possible. Watson had a hell of a time against the Tide defense in 2015 and this year’s unit is even better. This one sneaks UNDER once it’s all said and done.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Northwestern and Pittsburgh.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Northwestern has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 11 non-conference games (including on all three this year) and in eight of its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest.

The bottom line: We’re expecting each to put an added emphasis on establishing the run game while on offense. This number is just a little bit high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER between BYU and Wyoming.

REASONING: Wyoming looks poised for a possible letdown here after it fell 27-24 to SDSU in the Mountain West Conference championship game. QB Josh Allen had three TD’s, but also two INT’s in the setback. Expect the Cowboys to lean heavily on RB Brian Hill, who had 1,213 yards on the season, which ranked fourth overall. Wyoming averaged 37.1 PPG, but looked pretty average in the loss to the Aztecs. The defesne was a weak point all year, allowing 34.8 PPG. However, that unit looked pretty good against high-powered SDSU which just came roaring back to beat Houston on Opening Day of the bowls 34-10, after posting just six points at half time. The Cougars have won four straight, but lost QB Taysom Hill to a season-ending knee injury in the final game of the regular season. BYU has a competent backup Tanner Mangum, who put up big numbers for the Cougars last year, but this isn’t an easy situation for himself or the rest of the offensive unit. And note, BYU struggled for the most part on the offensive end this season anyways, posting 30 PPG, which was ranked 62nd overall in the country. The defense though was stout, allowing an average of just 19.4 PPG, which ranked it 15th in the country. Note that BYU has seen the total go UNDER the numer in nine of 11 non-conference games this year, while Wyoming has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last 11 in the same position. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between Memphis and Western Kentucky.

REASONING: This can still be a higher-scoring game and fall UNDER this sky-high number and that’s exactly what we’re expecting to see happen. The 8-4 Memphis Tigers are ready to battle the 10-3 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night and we’re expecting more of a defensive affair than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. WKU comes in off its second straight C-USA championship, beating Louisiana Tech 58-44. Memphis also comes in on fire, it won three of its last four, including upsetting Houston 48-44 in the regular season finale. The Tigers come in averaging 39.5 PPG. Their defense was above average in allowing just 27 PPG. The Hilltoppers average a whopping 45.1 PPG, which is ranked second in the country. WKU though also has a strong defense which has held three of its last five opponents to under ten points. Will rest lead to rust for these two high-powered offenses? We think so, at least to begin with. And that leaves the door open for the defenses to step through. Note that Memphis has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while WKU has seen the total go UNDER in three of four non-conference games this season. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Nebraska and Iowa.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Nebraska has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four as a road dog of three points or less and in eight of its last 12 as an underdog overall, while Iowa has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three as a home fav of three points or less and in 16 of its last 24 when playing with six or less days rest.

The bottom line: The numbers all point to this total being set just a bit low. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Washington and California.

REASONING: Washington is 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS and has seen the total go 7-1 to the over this year, including 3-0 on the road. Cal is 4-4 SU/ATS and has seen the total go 6-2 to the over this season, including 2-1 at home. Both teams have played to many high-scoring affairs already this season and for good reason, as these are a couple of high-powerered offenses which keep the foot on the gas from the opening kick until the final horn, with each also possessing defensive units which for the most part are an afterthought. However, whenever these teams have played against each other, it’s been a lower-scoring battle, as the last seven in the series have dropped below the posted number. This is by far the highest set total over that span, with the next closest coming in at 67 back in 2014. Last year Cal beat Washington 30-24. Cal comes in on nine days rest and will be looking to atone for a setback to USC last time out. Washington averages 46.1 PPG, but its defense has been even better, ranked 7th overall in allowing just 15.8. We think that Cals high-flying offense is going to stall against this tough Washington secondary. We’re also expecting the visitors to control the tempo of this one while on offense, as to limit the Bears’ time on that side of the field. Note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four games played in the month of November, while Cal has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 18 against teams with winning records. This can still be a high-scoring game and fall below this sky-high number and that’s exactly what we’re expecting. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between MTSU and FIU.

Setting the scene: FIU comes in off a 44-24 loss to Louisiana Tech, while MTSU comes off an improbable 51-45 upset win over the Missouri Tigers. Both teams have hopes of securing the Conference USA title and we’re expecting an all out war on Saturday night.

MTSU: QB Brent Stockstill had 280 yars passing with four TD’s last week, while I’Tavius Mathers had 215 yards rushing and a TD. So far the Blue Raiders average 40 PPG, ranked 16th overall. 

FIU: WR Thomas Owens had eight catches for 96 yards and two TD’s last week, but the Golden Panthers struggled offensively otherwise. They’ve struggled on both sides of the ball all year and clearly will have their hands full against the Blue Raiders.

The bottom line: Note that MTSU has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five as a road favorite, while FIU has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing a conference game. We think MTSU comes in a bit complacent after last week’s epic victory and when taking into account the rest of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between Maryland and Indiana.

Setting the scene: Maryland is 5-2 SU, while Indiana is 3-4. The Terps have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of seven this year, while the Hoosiers have also seen the total go UNDER in six of seven as well. Suffice it to say, we think the value has finally swung the other way as we’re expecting these hungry schools to open up the playbook as they each push for bowl eligibility.

Maryland: The Terps will be pumped after their 28-17 win over Michigan State at home last week. QB Perry Hills was 21 of 27 for 200 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. So far Hill has ten TD’s to just two INT’s on the season. The run game also looked great, as Ty Johnson had 115 yards, while Lorenzo Harrison had 105 yards and a TD. The team would in the end post 470 total yards of offense. 

Indiana: The Hoosiers will be desperate after losing three straight, most recently a 24-14 loss at Northwestern on the road. Indiana trailed 24-3 at half time, but would put 283 yards in the second half. QB Richard Lagow had 319 yards on the day, but two INT’s were the difference. 

The bottom line: Note that Maryland has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six off a win against a conference rival, while Indiana has seen the total go OVER in its last two as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7 points range. When these teams played last year, the Hoosiers pulled away for the convincing 47-28 win on the road. We’re expecting a similar final combined score in this afternoon, play the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between Navy and South Florida.

Setting the scene: No. 22 Navy has won two straight, while USC is coming off a loss on the road to Temple last Friday. All signs point to a war tonight and as such, we’re expecting a lower-scoring final outcome.

Navy: The Midshipmen are ranked 17th in the nation in rushing as the triple option is keyed around the ground game. QB Will Worth has nine TD’s on the ground, compared to just five through the air. Last week Worth had 201 yards and three TD’s against Memphis on the ground and another two passing TD’s as well. But it’s been the Middies’ defense which has turned the most heads this year, ranked 22nd in the nation in total yards given up. 

South Florida: QB Quinton Flowers suffered a late hamstring injury in last week’s loss to the Owls, but is expected to get the start tonight. The Bulls had won three straight before the setback. Defensively the team took a step back last week, allowing a whopping 319 rushing yards. Head coach Willie Taggart knows his defense needs to step up this week: “First, we’ve got to put guys in the position to make the plays.  And if the guys can’t do it, then put someone else in that can do it.  But some of those missed tackles last week are by some of the guys that we count on the most.”  He went on to say: “We got physically dominated on both sides of the ball.  We got outcoached.  We didn’t do anything right as a football team — offensively, defensively or special teams.”

The bottom line: We’re banking on USF playing much better defensively this week after the “brain fart” against Temple. Also note that Navy has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight when playing the role of underdog, while USF has seen the total go UNDER in ten of its last 14 against teams with winning records, including in two of three this season. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Ohio and Toledo.

REASONING: Ohio is 5-3 SU and has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its eight games this year. Toledo is 6-1 and has seen the O/U go 4-3 thus far. Despite the Bobcats struggling at times offensively this year, we think this one has all the makings of a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring “chess match.” Ohio comes in with momemtum after a 14-10 win over Kent State on the road, while the Rockets have won three straight, most recently a 31-17 home victory over Central Michigan. The Bobcats aren’t the greatest offensively, but still manage a respectable 28.5 PPG. Defensively they’ve been better, allowing just 24.2 PPG. However, the competition suddenly goes up dramatically for visiting Ohio, which faces a Toledo team which is 12th in the nation in passing, with Logan Woodside leading the way with 264 yards on 23 of 32 passing with no INT’s and four TD’s last week. The run game is ranked 36th in the country, led by Kareem Hunt, who has 740 yards so far this year. In all the Rockets average 41.3 PPG, ranked 13th in the country. Note that Ohio has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three gainst teams with winning records, while Toledo has seen the total go OVER in nine of its last 16 at home and in three of four already this year. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Louisiana Lafayette and Texas State.

Setting the scene: Louisiana Lafayette is coming off a 24-0 loss to App State last week, while Texas State lost 40-34 to Louisiana Monroe. Based on situation and strong/relevant O/U ATS trends, we believe that all signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this matchup.

The Ragin’ Cajuns: Lafayette’s offense looked horrible last week, picking up just 267 total yards. QB Anthony Jennings had 146 of those yards and he remains a lone “bright” spot for this struggling offensive unit. 

The Bobcats: Texas State would lose by just six points last week, but the game wasn’t nearly as close as the final outcome suggests, as the Warhawks would allow the Bobcats to inch closer in garbage time. Note that the offense only held the ball for 18 minutes the entire game and also turned it over three times. The defense wasn’t much better, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing Louisiana Lafayette’s vanilla unit.

The bottom line: Note that the Cajuns have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last seven after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Texas State has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last nine off a loss against a conference rival. Play the UNDER.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan.

Setting the scene: The Eastern Michigan Eagles are no slouches and come into this one sitting at 5-2. WMU though is 7-0 and will look to keep the good times rolling with another big effort. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, we’re expecting this total to eclipse the posted number.

EMU: The Eagles enter off their second consecutive win, this time a 27-20 victory over a tough Ohio Bobcats team. Brogan Roback had 347 yards and three TD’s. Since taking over in late September Roback has thrown seven TD’s to just one INT spanning four games. EMU’s defense has been opportunisitc as the unit has 13 takeaways already this year.

WMU: The Broncos rolled to a 41-0 win over Akron last week. QB Zach Terrell has been unstoppable, so far as he has 17 TD’s and zero INT’s. 

The bottom line: Note that EMU has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last nine as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while WMU has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last 12 at home (including all three this year) and in 12 of its last 19 when playing the role of favorite. We think these offenses open up the playbook and that all signs point to a high-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring “chess match.” Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between Miami Florida and Virginia Tech.

Setting the scene: These teams sport almost identical stat lines: Miami is 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U, while Virginia Tech is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U. Miami has lost two in a row, while the Hokies are looking to bounce back off an upset loss at Syracuse last week. 

The Hurricanes: Miami started the season 4-0 and averaged 47 PPG in the process. Since switching to league play, that offense has stalled though, totaling just 32 points over the last two games. Miami will be out to atone for last week’s lacklustre effort against North Carolina in which it put up just 13 points. The unit posted 363 yards of total offense, QB Brad Kaaya struggled, going 16 of 31 for 224 yards and no TD’s. One bright spot was the ground attack, led by the dynamic duo of Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton, who combined for 156 yards in that one and who now have over 1000 yards together, to go along with 14 TD’s. After its all said and done, the offense has been decent, averaging 36.7 PPG, good for 30th in the country. The defense has given up just 14 PPG, but looked horrible in giving up 461 yards to the Heels last week. 

The Hokies: Virginia Tech will be looking to get out to a much better start this week than last, as it went to Syracuse as a 21 point favorite and left with a 17 points loss. It was a terrible letdown after beating UNC 34-3 on the road the week before. VT though still has a very good shot at taking the Coastal Division title, so we’re expecting the team to break out the playbook today and to push the pace from start to finish. The unit will be looking to get the Miami defense out of its comfort zone and not allow it to dictate and enforce its will. Like the Hurricanes, the strength of the Hokies has been their defensive play, as they’ve given up an average of just 18.2 PPG this year, ranked 15th in the country. But last week against the Orange the unit was exposed, as Syracuse posted a whopping 561 yards of total offense, including 405 through the air. The defense also allowed 32 first downs and 10 of 21 third down conversions.

The bottom line: Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight road games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 points, while VT has seen the total go OVER in ten of its last 17 in front of the home town crowd. We think the situation sets up perfectly for a higher-scoring shootout, play on the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER between Eastern Michigan and Ohio.

Setting the scene: These teams come in “firing on all cylinders.” EMU is 4-2 overall and 1-1 in MAC action, while Ohio is also 4-2 overall, but 2-0 in league play. We’re expecting these two hungry sides to open up the playbook and look for this total to sneak above the number once it’s all said and done.

Eastern Michigan: The Eagles opened conference play with a 28-25 victory at Bowling Green, but would fall 35-20 at home to Toledo last weekend. QB Brogan Roback was 20 of 38 for 255 yards and one TD. 

Ohio: The Bobcats come off a 30-24 win over Bowling Green, as QB Greg Windham passed for one TD and ran for another. Ohio also turned four turnovers into 17 points. Windham was 20 of 27 for 190 yards. 

The bottom line: Note that EMU has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 13 off a loss against a conference rival and in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with winning records, while Ohio has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU victories. We think the writing is on the wall and a higher-scoring shootout is in the cards, play on the OVER.

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