This is a 10* play on the Temple Owls. 

Temple has won six of it's last eight overall, and during that span the Owls upset Cincinnati twice (once on the road). They host the SMU Mustangs in an early game Sunday, and SMU is asked to cover a bunch of points on the road. While Larry Brown's team is still undefeated, they may be vulnerable to an upset here. They did win at Temple last January, but only by five points (60-55). The Owls won 71-64 at home in 2014, and they were an eight point underdog in that game. Temple doesn't have the offensive firepower to match the Mustangs, but the Owls can play defense. In fact they've held the opposition to just 58.8 points on 36.7 percent shooting over their last five games. One of those was an impressive 55-53 win at Connecticut. The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five in this series, and that trend should continue on Sunday. 

Take TEM. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores. 

Kentucky has looked vulnerable lately, losing on the road at Auburn and LSU, and barely beating Mississippi State at home. The Wildcats may have their hands full at home this Saturday, hosting a Vanderbilt team that has won three straight. The Commodores crushed the Vols in Tennessee on Thursday by a score of 88-74. They hit 13 three-pointers, and out-rebounded Tennessee 50-43. The Vols have lost four of five overall on the road, but they've played some close games. They've actually covered the spread in nine of their last 13 road games. They've also been a great bet against Kentucky, as the Wildcats have failed to cover in seven straight against Vanderbilt. The Commodores will have a huge size advantage with a pair of seven footers, and junior forward Luke Kornet who has been a force during this three game winning streak. Kornet has scored 29 points, 31 rebounds with a whopping 16 blocks over the last three games. 

Take VAN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. 

The Georgetown Hoyas are coming off a home loss to Villanova, and they'll have their work cut out for them on the road at Xavier tonight. The Musketeers are 16-1 overall, and 9-0 at home. They've won their last four games by an average margin of 16 points, and two of those wins came on the road. They've covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 overall, and four of their last five versus the Hoyas. They've been historically great at home, going 41-18 ATS in their last 59 home games. The Musketeers scored 36 points on 12 made three pointers in their last home game, and also shot 80 percent from the free throw line in an 84-64 win over DePaul. The Hoyas will be at a severe disadvantage when it comes to rebounding and perimeter shooting, and I think it's going to be tough to overcome for the visitors. 

Take Xavier. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes. 

Iowa has won 10 of it's last 11 overall, and that one loss came on the road at rivals Iowa State in a game that they led 49-35 at halftime. They host Michigan Sunday, and the Wolverines are coming off a home win over #3 ranked Maryland. The Wolverines didn't exactly catch Maryland at their best, as Melo Trimble scored just two points on 1-of-7 shooting. They appear to be primed for a let down here in Iowa, against a team that has averaged 85.9 points on 46.9 percent shooting while winning all eight of it's home games. The Hawkeyes swept the series last year, winning both games by a double digit margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-2-1 in their last 11 versus conference rivals, and Michigan is shorthanded without it's best player Caris LaVert. The Wolverines got crushed in an 87-70 loss to Purdue in their last road game, The Boilermakers owned the boards in that game, out-rebounding Michigan 36-28. They are likely to struggle on the boards here in Iowa as well, the Hawkeyes average 38 rebounds per game at home. 

Take IOWA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

The Texas Longhorns had lost three of four overall before beating Iowa State in overtime, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. Texas is a big favorite here on Saturday against Oklahoma State, and I am not convinced that the Longhorns can cover such a number. Their win over the Cyclones was only their second in the last five games, and each of their last three wins have come by three points or less. The Cowboys have been a good bet in previous meetings, going  6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 versus Texas. The Longhorns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Take OKST. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars. 

The Friars will host Big East rivals Seton Hall on Saturday, and they've won four straight in this series. The Pirates have lost back to back games to Creighton and Villanova, and they are just are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 versus the Big East. Providence has covered the spread in five of it's last six versus Conference rivals. Providence won the last meeting by a score of 79-66 at Seton Hall last March. The Friars scored 29 points at the charity stripe in that game, and they are averaging 71.2 percent from the free throw line this season. The Pirates are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big East, while the Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference rivals. 

Take PROV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

Duke is coming off a sub-par performance on the road at Clemson, losing by a score of 68-63. The Blue Devils had won five straight prior that, and they are still undefeated at home. Few teams can say that they've had any success at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Blue Devils are 58-1 in Durham since Nov. 9, 2012, and one of those wins was a 90-60 blowout against the Irish last year. The Blue Devils have covered the spread in seven of their last nine versus conference rivals, and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. They've averaged 93.5 points on 50 percent shooting while going 10-0 at home, but perhaps their biggest advantage over the Irish is on the boards. They are averaging almost 40 rebounds per game, while the Irish are averaging less than 30.

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers.

The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a loss to Clemson on Sunday, and yet they are still asked to cover an enormous spread at home tonight against a Pittsburgh team that has won 10 straight. I bet against Louisville in their loss to Clemson, and here is what I said prior to tip off: 

"The Louisville Cardinals will be a big favorite on the road at Clemson Sunday, and I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams."

They have now failed to cover in four straight (I bet against them in all four games), and one of those was a home win over Wake Forest by single digits. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 83.6 points on 48.9 percent shooting over their last five games. During that same span the Cardinal have scored just 75.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Perhaps the biggest edge for the visitors is that they rank first nationally, shooting 80.1 percent from the free throw line. Louisville is hitting a rather pedestrian 68 percent from the charity stripe. 

Take PIT. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the N.C. State Wolfpack. 

The Florida State Seminoles have kicked off conference play with three straight losses, all of the "blowout" variety. They are on the road at N.C. State tonight, and the Wolfpack are also looking for their first win against a conference opponent. While both teams have lost three straight, the Wolfpack have a lot more to hang their hat on. They've played relatively well, losing by five points at Virginia Tech, and by just three points at Wake Forest. Their lone home game during that span was against #16 ranked Louisville, and they pushed the Cardinals to the brink, but lost 77-72. They have been a good bet in recent meetings with Florida State, winning three of the last four outright, and covering the spread in all three of those victories. Last year they won by a score of 72-63 at Tallahassee, and leading scorer Anthony Barber didn't even play in that game. That didn't stop them from cleaning up on the boards, and limiting FSU to 19-of-51 (31.7%) from the field. I expect the home team to take care of business here against a team that they've owned in previous seasons. 

Take NCST 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

The Clemson Tigers are flying high, but I think they're about to get their wings clipped here at home versus Duke. I bet on Clemson as a nine point dog at home when they played Louisville on Sunday, and here is what I said prior to tip off: 

"I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams. Clemson isn't a great team, but the Tigers are 7-2 at home, and they've played their best ball while winning back to back games against Florida State and Syracuse."

Now they are playing a much stronger Duke team, and they are getting fewer points. This is also a let down spot for the Tigers, who might be feeling a bit too good about himself coming off such a big upset. Duke is coming off five straight wins, scoring an average of 92.4 points on 51 percent shooting. The Blue Devils have shot 53 percent while winning both their road games so far this season, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus conference opponents. 

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Hawkeyes. 

The Texas Longhorns have lost three of their last four overall, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. I think he will be sorely missed here against the Cyclones, who have looked very solid on the road. Iowa State won outright at Cincinnati, and lost a close game 87-83 at Oklahoma. Texas got killed on the boards in a loss to TCU on Saturday, and it shot just 37.1 percent from the field, and 14 percent from three point range. "I think offensively, we've got to continue to get better at playing faster," coach Shaka Smart said , "getting out in transition to get some easier baskets, because right now we're struggling to shoot the ball from outside in the half court." The Cyclones have averaged 82 points on 47 percent shooting on the road so far. 

Take ISU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies. 

The Aggies are 13-2 overall, and 9-0 at home. They host the Florida Gators tonight, and I don't think this game will be all that close. The Aggies are coming off a win on the road at Tennessee, just a few days after the Vols crushed Florida by a score of 83-69. The Gators are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Florida has averaged just 58.8 points per game on 37.8 points per game on the road this year. They've really struggled at the free throw line, hitting just 58.3 percent. The Aggies are averaging 86.8 points on 51.4 percent shooting while remaining unbeaten at home. They've covered the spread in five straight home games versus a team with a losing road record. 

Take TAM. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Detroit Titans. 

Valparaiso is a great team, and it's coming off an impressive road win over a good Oakland team. The Crusaders were a three point favorite in that game, but would win by a score of 84-67. Here we are just a few days later, and Valparaiso is facing another tough opponent on the road, but this time they are asked to cover a much bigger number at Detroit, a team that is undefeated at home. The Titans are 9-0, scoring an average of 87.4 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting in those games. They've played Valparaiso seven times since March of 2012, covering the spread in five of those seven games. They won four of those contests outright, and most of their losses came by just a few points. The Titans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Crusaders might be missing starting PG Keith Carter, the senior is listed as questionable with a foot injury. 

Take DET. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels. 

The Rebels lost their SEC opener on the road at Kentucky, but bounced back with a big home win over Alabama on Thursday. They will host the Georgia Bulldogs tonight, and Georgia is coming off a home win over Missouri. It seems a little surprising that Mississippi is just a slight favorite, considering that Georgia is winless on the road. The Bulldogs lost their most recent road game at Florida by a score of 77-63. 

Mississippi is 6-0 at home, and has averaged 82.7 points on 45.6 percent shooting in those games. Georgia has failed to cover in five straight on the road, and has average just 62.5 points on 40 percent shooting so far on the road this season. 

The Rebels out-rebounded Alabama 37-30 in their last game, and F Sebastian Saiz pulled down 16 of those boards. Mississippi has averaged over 37 rebounds at home, while the Bulldogs have averaged fewer than 30 on the road.  

Take MISS. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. 

St. Mary's is still unranked, despite a 14-1 record, with all 14 of those wins coming by a double digit margin. They are coming off a 73-48 road win at Loyola Marymount, and they will be on the road at Pepperdine this afternoon. There's no doubt that the Wave are a better team than the Lions, but Pepperdine just barely beat them at home in overtime last Saturday. Since then they played another close game against the 3-11 Pacific Tigers. The Gaels come in as the nation's best shooting team hitting 54.9 percent from the field. They rank second in three point field goal percentage, hitting 45.5 percent from beyond the arc. St. Mary's is 19-7 ATS in it's last 26 versus the  West Coast, and it has covered in five of it's last six on the road. The Gaels should be looking at another double digit win here. 

Take SMU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Volunteers. 

The Vols will host #21 ranked Texas A&M on Saturday, and Tennessee is getting a handful of points as a home dog. The Aggies just narrowly defeated Mississippi State on Wednesday, winning by a score of 61-60. Tennessee is 8-0 at home, and they are coming off an 83-69 win over Florida. They cleaned up on the boards in that game, out-rebounding Florida 49-40. These teams have a history of playing close games, and two of the last four games were decided in overtime. The underdog covered in all four of those games. The Vols have won seven of their last 10 home games against ranked teams, and each of those three losses came against teams ranked in the top three. I'll take a generous spread with the home team. 

Take TENN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans. 

The Trojans have had a spectacular start to the season, winning 12 of 13 games. Their only loss came on the road at Texas Tech, and so far they have manhandled inferior opponents. They have kicked off conference play with consecutive road wins, and now they return home to host the 5-6 Ragin' Cajuns. Louisiana Lafayette has lost three straight on the road to Pepperdine, UCLA and Louisiana Tech. They've also failed to cover the spread in five of their last six on the road, and I don't think they're getting near enough points here in tonight's game. The Trojans have scored an average of 81.5 points on 49.6 percent shooting at home so far, and they are shooting almost 80 percent from the charity stripe. This game should be a double digit blowout win for the home team. 

Take UALR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

Texas Tech had cruised through non-conference play, winning 10 of 11 games. The only loss during that span came by a score of 73-63 to Utah in Puerto Rico. They looked pretty good in a 82-74 win over Texas in their BIG12 opener, and prior to that they beat Richmond and Arkansas Little Rock by double digits. The Cyclones have had their moments, and they come in ranked #13 overall. While they've won 11 of their 13 games, they have not been very consistent. They were trailing Iowa by 21 points on their home floor back in December, but rallied to win that game by a score of 83-82. They've also won close games against Cincinnati and Colorado by a combined seven points, and when they've faced inferior opponents the results have not been impressive. They are asked to cover double digits against a Red Raiders team that is 6-0 ATS in it's last six, and 6-2 ATS in it's last eight versus BIG12 teams. 

Take Texas Tech. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Auburn Tigers. 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are still undefeated, but I think they are a little overrated heading into a tough road game against an SEC rival tonight. Their 13-0 record looks impressive, but they've had a soft schedule, and tonight's game should prove to be their toughest to date. Auburn is coming off an 83-77 win over Tennessee in it's SEC opener, and the Tigers are 5-1 at home. They've won six of their last seven versus South Carolina, covering the spread in six of those contests. Keep in mind that this Gamecocks team got off to a hot start last season, winning 9-of-12 in non-conference play, only to lose six of their first seven versus SEC teams. This looks like a generous cushion for the Tigers at home, and I think they'll give the Gamecocks a run for their money. 

Take AUB. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Rhode Island Rams. 

The Richmond Spiders are coming off back to back losses to St. Joseph's and Texas Tech, and they face another tough opponent on the road in Rhode Island tonight. The Rams are 7-2 at home, and they are coming off an 85-57 win over the Saint Louis Billikens. They shot 50 percent from the field, and 44 percent from beyond the arc in that game, out-rebounding Saint Louis 38-26. Richmond has really struggled from the free throw line on the road, hitting just over 50 percent while losing two of three. The Rams have defeated Richmond in each of the last two seasons, winning 79-74 at Richmond last year, and 66-43 at home the year before. I can't see any reason for Richmond to expect a better result this time around. 

Take URI. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 

The Louisville Cardinals come into Sunday's game against Wake Forest with an 11-2 record, but most of those wins came against inferior opponents. They've faced two quality opponents, losing both games to Michigan State and Kentucky. Louisville is asked to cover double digits at home here despite missing their starting PG and second leading scorer Trey Lewis. He suffered a severe ankle sprain in Friday's practice, and coach Rick Pitino didn't sound optimistic about his team's situation: "We are behind the 8-ball with no backup point," Pitino said. "We will see with practice what to do. Levitch is option one. Ryan off redshirt option two. There is no foreseeable third option." Wake Forest has been a good bet as an underdog, going 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. Louisville has been putting up big numbers, but those are a little inflated due to their soft schedule. The one area where they haven't looked so strong is at the free throw line, hitting just 66.7 percent at home. Wake Forest is shooting 72.8 percent from the charity stripe on the road. 

Take WAKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be a double digit favorite on the road in San Francisco tonight, coming off a 79-79 road win over Santa Clara. The Bulldogs are 11-3 overall, and they have won both their road game so far this season. They come into tonight's game riding a five game winning streak, but it's not all good news for Gonzaga. Their big man Przemek Karnowski for the rest of the season with a back injury, and their young guards have struggled. This team is really missing the experience of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell. Pangos scored 17 points in an 81-70 win over the Dons when Gonzaga played at San Francisco last season. They are asked to cover an even bigger spread this time around, and this team is nowhere near as skilled as it was then. In fact this enormous number makes very little sense when you consider that Gonzaga is 2-8-1 ATS in it's last 11 road games, and 4-11 ATS in it's last 15 games against San Francisco.

Take SF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

The Texas Longhorns will come into this rivalry game against the Red Raiders without their leading scorer center Cameron Ridley. They didn't fare well without him in their last game, a 71-66 home loss to Connecticut. They lost the battle on the boards to the Huskies (36-34), and rebounding is going to be a challenge here against Texas Tech. The Longhorns have a bigger fan base, and that's often resulted in them being overrated when the two teams meet. This is evidenced by the fact that Texas Tech is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Texas Tech is 8-0 at home this season, and it has covered the spread in each of the last six of those games. Their last two games were particularly impressive, beating Richmond by 15 points, and ending the unbeaten run of Arkansas Little Rock. They slaughtered the Spiders on the glass, out-rebounding Richmond 43-20. They shot 30-of-58 (51.7 percent) from the field in that game, winning 85-70. They should be able to handle a short-handed Texas team today. 

Take TTU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Utah Utes. 

The Utes have always been a better home team than they have been on the road, but this year's Utes might be the best team Larry Krystkowiak has ever coached. They sure looked like world beaters in a 77-75 win over Duke at MSG. They will open PAC12 play on the road at Stanford, where they have not done well in previous seasons. The Cardinal have already lost a couple of home games though, and I haven't been impressed with their recent play. They have been brutal in conference play, failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 versus PAC12 teams. Utah has shot 55.4 percent from the field, scoring an average of 85.4 point over it's last five games. During that span Stanford has scored just 71 points per game on 42.9 percent shooting. The Utes also have a huge edge in free throw shooting, hitting 74.1 percent in comparison to 65.8 percent by Stanford. Utah has hit 81 percent from the free throw line on the road. 

Take UTAH. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. 

The Gaels are 11-1 straight up, and 7-0 at home. Their only defeat came in a close game decided by just four points at Cal. They host BYU tonight, and the Cougars have failed to impress, and they are 0-3 on the road. BYU lost 82-77 at St. Mary's last year, and it's pretty obvious that this year's Gaels team is vastly improved, while the Cougars don't look as good as they did a year ago. St. Mary's ranks 5th nationally in opponent's scoring average, first in field goal percentage (.538), fourth in assists and second in three point field goal percentage (.452). Those numbers are even more impressive at home, where they have covered in eight of their last 10 games, and 20 of their last 27. I think the only reason why the Cougars aren't a bigger dog here, is that their school has a strong basketball history and plenty of name recognition. That isn't going to help them against a St. Mary's team that appears to be far better in all aspects of the game. 

Take SMU.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos. 

The Lobos have lost four straight, but three of those losses came in the Diamondhead Classic Tournament in Hawaii. They are back on their home court tonight, hosting the Nevada Wolfpack, and I expect New Mexico to get back on track against an inferior opponent. The Lobos are 6-1 at home so far, with impressive wins over rivals New Mexico State and UNI. The Wolpack have lost four of five on the road, and were beaten by a whopping 19 points at Cal State Fullerton. New Mexico averages 81.6 points per game on 50.9 percent shooting at home, while the Wolfpack are shooting just 37.4 percent, scoring an average of 71 on the road. Nevada has failed to cover in four straight against teams from the Mountain West, and it should probably be a double digit dog here. 

Take UNM. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

The Red Raiders have won nine of 10 overall, and they are still undefeated at home. They host the Richmond Spiders tonight, only asked to cover a handful of points. I don't expect this game to be quite as close as the betting line suggests. Richmond is 1-1 on the road, with a 20-point loss at Florida. They are going to be facing a Texas Tech front court with a big size advantage, and I think they are going to get killed on the glass. The Red Raiders are averaging 36 rebounds per game at home, while Richmond has averaged just 27.5 on the road. The home team also has an advantage at the free throw line, averaging 72.3 percent at home, while the Spiders are shooting just 58.2 percent from the line on the road. The Spiders have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG12, while Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in it's last five home games. 

Take TTU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Davidson Wildcats. 

Davidson is a double digit dog on the road at California tonight, and I can't quite see how anyone can expect Cal to cover such a big number. If you look at their schedule, they've looked pretty pedestrian at home, despite an 8-0 record. They beat Seattle by 14, East Carolina by eight, and IW by just a dozen. The Wildcats are in a different class than any of those teams. They are 8-2 overall, and leading scorer Jack Gibbs ranks third in the country with over 26 points per game. He is coming off a 41 point performance in the win over Morehead State last week. Davidson has been a great bet on the road, covering in 21 of it's last 27 road games. Cal has failed to cover in four of it's last five at home. 

Take DAV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Kentucky Wildcats. 

The Wildcats will host the Louisville Cardinals in a huge rivalry game at Rupp Arena on Boxing Day, and Kentucky has slipped all the way to #12 in the rankings after losing in New York to the Buckeyes. At first glance it might look like a good spot to go against a Kentucky team that appears vulnerable, but I am not about to go against a team that has won 96 of it's last 100 home games under coach Cal. 

Not when they are only asked to cover a couple points, and not even against a Louisville team that leads the nation in scoring margin (+30.2) and rank second in field goal percentage (.512). Why not? Well Louisville has only faced one ranked team, and that was a 71-67 loss at Michigan State. The majority of the Cardinals wins have come at home against inferior opponents. 

The Wildcats have beaten Duke, and won by double digits at home against a very good Arizona State team. Freshman guard Jamaal Murray scored a career high 33 points against Ohio State, hitting 7-of-9 from beyond the arc. I still believe Kentucky is a deeper, more talented team that should be a far bigger favorite on it's home floor. 

Take UK. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Mercer Bears. 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a huge home win over Kentucky, but that sets them up for a let down here tonight at home versus Mercer. The Bears are coming in a double digit dog, and they are the team with the better record. Mercer is 9-2 overall, and it's last game was a win over the Razorbacks in Arkansas. The Buckeyes have lost three home games already to Texas Arlington, Louisiana Tech and Virginia. Mercer has a huge edge at the free throw line, hitting 74.7 percent, nearly 10 points better than OSU. They are also better on the boards, with a deeper bench and they have a size advantage. The Bears have also shot better than 40 percent from three point range over their last five games. 

Take Mercer. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Purdue Boilermakers. 

The Commodores come into Purdue off a string of poor performances, and I don't like their chances here without starting forward Luke Kornet. The 7 foot junior is out for four to six weeks with a knee injury, and without him Vandy has not looked good. They lost to Baylor and Dayton, before winning their last game against Wofford. The Boiler Makers are 11-1, thanks to their twin towers Isaac Haas and A.J. Hammons. Without Kornet the Commodores have struggled on the boards, and they face a Purdue team that out-rebounding opponents by an average margin over 12 points. Vandy has lost 10 straight to Top 25 teams, while the Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine versus teams from the SEC. I expect Purdue to win this game by double-digits. 

Take Purdue. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Fresno State Bulldogs. 

The Bulldogs are 7-0 at home so far, and they are 8-3 overall. They've played some good teams, and have been very competitive with the best of them. They lost by just five points at Oregon, and they weren't really out-classed in a loss to the Wildcats at Arizona. They will host the Evansville Aces on Sunday, and the Aces are off to a 9-2 start, but are just 1-1 on the road. Their most recent road game was an 89-76 loss at Arkansas. Their leading scorer D.J. Balentine was just 5-of-16 from the field, and 1-of-6 from beyond the arc in that game. They are shooting just 20% from three-point range on the road, and they are really getting killed on the boards averaging just 26.5 rebounds. The Bulldogs are likely to own the glass here at home, and I think it's a bargain getting Fresno State as a short favorite here. 

Take FRES. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers. 

The 8-1 Pittsburgh Panthers are a small favorite against the 7-1 Davidson Wildcats when the two teams meet at Madison Square Garden Sunday. Davidson is a pretty good team that scores a lot of points, but I think the Wildcats are going to run into a brick wall here against an elite team from the toughest conference in the country. Both these teams are averaging over 85 points per game, but the Wildcats aren't even close when it comes to defense. The Panthers are allowing opponents to average just 63 points per game, 15 points fewer than the Wildcats. The Panthers are also shooting for a significantly higher percentage from the field (49.9%), from three-point range (41.3%), and they are shooting just shy of 80 percent from the free throw line. Davidson has failed to cover the spread in six of it's last eight versus ACC teams, and I think it will come up short again in New York. 

Take PIT. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal. 

The Texas Longhorns will play their first true road game at Stanford tonight, and the Cardinal have been very strong at home. The Cardinal are coming off a 79-60 home win over DePaul. The Longhorns have lost to Michigan, Texas A&M and Washington. The Longhorns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, and they've failed to cover in four of their last five road games. Stanford won 74-71 at Texas last season, and two of the last three meetings between these teams have required overtime. The Longhorns have no business being favorites on the road in Northern California, and my money is on Stanford,

The STAN. 

GL. 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Washington Huskies. 

The Huskies have won four straight, and they are 5-0 at home so far. Washington will host the Oakland Grizzlies on Saturday, and Oakland has been a bit of a disappointment this year. The Grizzlies are just 2-3 on the road, and they appear to be overmatched here at Washington. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. They shot 10-of-25 from the three point line in a 92-62 win over the Montana Grizzlies in their last game. They owned the boards in that game, and with their tremendous size, they normally clean up on the glass. I like the Huskies to win by double digits here versus an inferior opponent. 

Take WASH. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the UCLA Bruins. 

The Bruins will host the #11 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday, looking for another big upset at home. It was just two weeks ago that UCLA beat the #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats at home. Last weekend they upset the Gonzaga Bulldogs winning 71-66 on the road. The Tar Heels on the other hand have lost both road games so far at UNI and Texas. Making matters  worse for UNC, senior forward Kennedy Meeks is out for the Tar Heels. The Bruins are starting to develop a reputation as Giant Killers, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning record.

Take UCLA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

The Utah Utes are an underdog on the road at Duke on Saturday afternoon, and this will be the first meeting since last year's tournament. The Blue Devils won that game by a score of 63-57, but that was at a neutral site. I'm expecting are more one-sided affair here at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Utes have not done well on the road, losing by 17 points at Wichita State in their most recent road game. They also lost a neutral site game by a 24 point margin versus the Miami Hurricanes. Amile Jefferson will not play for Duke, but they didn't miss him in a 99-65 win over Georgia Southern. They shot 53 percent from the field and 41.percent from beyond the arc in that game. Freshman Brandon Ingram stepped up scoring 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting. The Blue Devils have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 versus teams from the PAC-12, and seven of their last eight following a win. 

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule.

This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos. 

The Lobos will host rivals New Mexico State tonight, and they are asked to cover a nine point spread. I like the Lobos to win this one by double digits. These teams met earlier this year, and UNM won that one by a score of 83-74. The Lobos are 5-0 at home, and their last game was an impressive 76-57 win over the Northern Illinois Panthers. While these rivals have played their fair share of close games in the past, not many of those have come at Albuquerque. The Aggies lost here last year by a score of 62-47. They 
are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Mexico, and 2-10-2 ATS overall in the last 14 meetings.

Take UNM.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies. 

The Ohio State Buckeyes have a strong basketball tradition, and a brand that bettors are familiar with. Perhaps that's why they are a double-digit favorite tonight against the 7-1 Northern Illinois Huskies. When you look at the numbers, nothing else makes sense. The Buckeyes have a losing record, and they are coming off a 20-point loss to Connecticut. They shot just 35.7 percent in that game, and went 5-of-22 from beyond the arc. The Huskies are still flying under the radar, but they've been a great bet on the road going 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Huskies are coming off their first loss of the season at Missouri, but that game was close (78-71). They should be able to make this game interesting against an overrated OSU team. 

Take NIU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.

The Cardinal will host the DePaul Blue Demons tonight, and this looks like a complete mismatch. Stanford is 4-3 overall, but their losses have come to powerhouse schools in SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova. They are coming off back to back home wins over Arkansas and Dartmouth. Friday's win over Dartmouth was a defensive clinic, holding the Big Green to 50 points in a 64-50 victory. The Blue Demons are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. They are coming off a 66-44 loss to UALR, and were an abysmal 1-of-9 from beyond the arc, and 9-of-16 (56.3 %) from the free throw line. DePaul has been totally out-classed when facing top tier teams, going 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight up record.

Take STAN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the UCLA Bruins. 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will host UCLA on Saturday, and the Bruins have won three straight, with one of those wins coming against the #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Gonzaga doesn't look like the same team after losing a pair of senior guards in Pangos and Bell. After losing at home to Arizona, they just about lost again in a 68-51 win over Montana on Tuesday. They shot just 40 percent from the field, and hit 4-of-15 from beyond the arc. "We're very lucky to get out of this with a win," coach Mark Few said after the game. Despite their struggles, they are asked to cover a big number here. The Bruins have covered the spread in four of their last five road games, while the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. Senior center Przemek Karnowski has missed the Bulldogs last three games with a sore back, and he isn't expected to play tonight. "He's a huge, huge part of who we are," said Few. "I think these guys are performing admirably without one of their best, most important players out there on the floor."

Take UCLA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. 

These are two teams that are quite familiar with one another, but in recent seasons the Musketeers have had the better of this rivalry. Last year Xavier upset the Bearcats in Cincinnati by a score of 59-57. The year before they crushed them at home by a score of 64-47. This year's Musketeers team might be the best ever, and they come into tonight's game with a 9-0 record, with signature wins over Michigan, Dayton and USC. None of those games were close, all decided by a double digit margin. They are coming off a 90-55 win over Wright State, and they were 10-of-21 from beyond the arc in the victory. The Musketeers have been a great bet at home, going 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games.

Take XAV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. 

The California Bears are one of the better teams in the PAC12, and they are sexy pick for bettors, who are easily impressed by the fact that they score a lot of points. Cal will face a tough test this Saturday though, hosting the undefeated Gaels. So far this season, when they've played good teams they have failed to impress. The Bears lost 72-58  to San Diego State in Las Vegas, shooting just 37.5 percent from the field in that game. They also fell 94-90 to the Richmond Spiders, blowing a late lead. The Gaels have cruised to a 6-0 record, and they have double digit wins over Stanford, U.C. Davis and UCI. While this will be their toughest test to date, history tells us that we should see a close game here. St. Mary's has won both previous meetings, and those games were each decided by single digits. The Gaels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, while Cal has failed to cover in four of it's last five home games. 

Take SMC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons. 

The Dons came out flat for their last home game, trailing Eastern Washington by 11 at halftime. They out-scored the Eagles 48-41 in the second half, but still came up short losing 81-77. They followed that up with another ugly loss on the road to Montana, but a home game against the 2-6 CS Northridge Matadors appears to present an opportunity to get back on track. The Matadors have been blown out in back to back losses to Pepperdine and UCLA, and they turned the ball over 37 times in those two games. Bettors haven't made any money backing this team, as the Matadors are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games. I expect the Dons to win this one by double digits. 

Take SF. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Northern Iowa Panthers. 

The Richmond Spiders are just 4-3, and they are coming off an ugly 20-point loss at Florida. The Spiders shot just 21-of-62 (33.9%) from the field in that game. Still they come into tonight's home game asked to cover points against a Northern Iowa team that is on a five game winning streak. One of those five wins was an upset of the #1 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels. The Panthers have played the tougher schedule, yet they come in shooting the ball for a far higher percentage from the field, from beyond the arc, and almost 10 percent better at the charity stripe. They have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 road games, and last year they won nine of their 13 road games outright, and those losses came at VCU, Wichita State and Evansville (by three points). I don't believe the Spiders have any business being asked to cover a handful of points here versus this team. 

Take UNI. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the BYU Cougars. 

The Utah Utes are 5-1, but I haven't been impressed with their body of work so far. I bet against them when they played San Diego State at home on November 16. They failed to cover, winning by just five points. That game saw several lead changes, and it could have gone either way. They have since been blown out in a neutral site game against Miami, and won a close game against Temple. BYU has won four of five, with their one loss coming by a single point on the road at Long Beach State. That loss isn't as bad as it sounds, as Long Beach State is a pretty competitive team. In fact last night they lost by just four points to the Aztecs, who were neck and neck with the Utes in that mid November game at Utah. The Utes have won two of the last three meetings between the two teams, but two of those games were close, decided by four points or fewer. 

Take BYU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes. 

The Hawkeyes are 2-0 at home, and they are coming off a very impressive win over Wichita State. Iowa shot 53.8 percent from the field, and 8-of-18 from three point range, winning 84-61. The Seminoles are playing their first road game of the year, and they have won four of five versus unranked teams from smaller conferences. Florida State hasn't fared as well against Power 5 teams, especially the BIG10. They have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 versus BIG10 teams. Iowa holds an edge in three-point shooting as well as free throw percentage, which is even more significant considering their strength of schedule. They also have a massive size advantage, and should have little trouble dominating the boards. 

Take IOWA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Denver Pioneers. 

The Pioneers have won five straight, and all five of those wins have come by double digits. They host a 4-2 Wyoming team tonight that hasn't impressed much in the early going. The Cowboys lost their only road game this season by a 15 point margin at Indiana State, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games dating back to last year. The Pioneers have won five straight home meetings versus Wyoming, going 3-1-1 ATS in those games. They are only asked to cover a handful of points in tonight's contest, and this year's Denver team might just be far better than it was in past seasons. 

Take DEN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. 

The Wisconsin Badgers were the runner up in last year's NCAA Tournament Final, but they have really struggled after losing Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. They really struggled in their last game at Oklahoma, losing the Sooners by a score of 65-48. They shot an abysmal 23.5 percent from the field in that game, and hit just 7-of-33 three point shots. It doesn't get any easier tonight, playing the Syracuse Orange at the Carrier Dome. The Orange have won 63 of their last 64 non conference home games, and they have looked quite good so far, coming off consecutive wins over ranked teams. They beat the Connecticut Huskies 79-76 on Thanksgiving Day, and then defeated Texas A&M 74-67 the next day. Michael Gbinije comes into tonight's game averaging just under 20 points per game, and he's shooting better than 50 percent from beyond the arc so far this season. 

Take SYR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans. 

The #3 ranked Spartans host the 5-0 Louisville Cardinals, and I like MSU at home here. The Spartans have proved that they can play with the nation's elite teams, winning the Wooden Legacy with a 77-64 victory over Providence. They also beat Kansas by a score of 79-73 at the United Center in early November. We really haven't seen what Louisville can do, because they have yet to play a top level opponent. It was Michigan State that knocked Louisville out of last year's tournament, and since then the Cardinals have lost Montrezl Harrell, Terry Rozier and Wayne Blackshear. The Spartans come in with a significant edge in three-point percentage, as well as free throw percentage. Those numbers are even more significant when you consider that they've had the tougher schedule. The Cardinals have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG10, while the Spartans have covered in six of their last seven home games. 

Take MSU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.

I am a big fan of the Wichita State Shockers, but they are in a tough spot here on Sunday facing the Iowa Hawkeyes in Orlando. The Shockers are missing starting guard Fred Van Fleet, as well as his backup Landry Shamet. They suffered another big loss in their last game, with starting forward Anton Grady suffering a serious spinal injury. Grady was knocked unconscious, and taken off the court on a stretcher. With a decimated lineup, the Shockers would lose by a score of 64-60 to a pretty poor Crimson Tide team. 

The Hawkeyes have also lost their last two games, but those defeats came to quality opponents in Dayton and #17 ranked Notre Dame. Both of those games were close, and Iowa coach Fred McCaffery put it in perspective: "When you're really good, you're close to struggling," "When you're struggling, you're close to being really good. We played two really good teams right to the wire."

The Shockers are going to need a big game from Rob Baker if they hope to have any chance of hanging with Iowa, and Baker scored just two points and was 0-for-7 from the field the last time he played Iowa. Wichita State has failed to cover in six of it's last seven non conference games, and I don't like it's chances of overcoming injuries here on Sunday. 

Take IOWA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Diego State Aztecs. 

The Aztecs will be the underdog against #14 ranked California when the two teams meet in Las Vegas tonight. Cal has cruised to four easy wins so far, but they have yet to prove themselves against quality opposition. The same can not be said for the Aztecs, who played a close game on the road at #16 ranked Utah two weeks ago. That was a game that saw several lead changes, and the Utes barely escaped with an 81-76 win. I got the win with San Diego State as the underdog in that game, and here is what I said prior to tip off: 

"San Diego State won it's opener by double digits, but this early in the season it's difficult to read into results with such a small sample size. One thing that immediately stands out about this game was the play of freshman PG Jeremy Helmsley who scored 20 points in his Aztecs debut. "It's a feeling I can't really describe," said Hemsley, who's from Rancho Cucamonga. "As soon as I woke up today I knew it was going to be a good day. I'm excited for this. But at the end of the day it's just the first game. We just have to continue to do what we do." The point guard position was a weakness for San Diego State last year, and if Helmsley is as good as he's expected to be, they could be a better team this season."

Helmsley scored 16 points with six assists in 28 minutes in a 79-54 win over ECU on Monday, and that might tell us a little about how the Aztecs measure up against Cal. The Bears played the Pirates a few days earlier, and struggled in a game that was close right up until the final buzzer. "We just didn't move the ball well. We got stagnant," said Tyrone Wallace. 

Wallace and the Bears are facing one of the nation's top defensive teams here tonight, and they could have a tough time. The last time these teams faced each other the Aztecs won 64-63. San Diego State has covered in 10 of it's last 14 versus opponents from the PAC12. 

Take SDST. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers.

The #23 ranked Tigers are undefeated at 3-0, and they are facing a Marquette team that has lost two of three to start the season. The Tigers are just a small favorite here, and I think the bookmakers are way off. Perhaps Marquette is getting the benefit of the doubt because their name is synonymous with a with a winning program, but that was in the past, not necessarily the present.

This is a school that lost 13 of it's final 16 games last year, and has already struggled at the beginning of this season. They are coming off an 89-61 loss to unranked Iowa, shooting just 38.6 percent from the field and turning the ball over 19 times in that defeat.

The Tigers on the other hand shot better than 50 percent from the field in a 78-66 home win over South Alabama in their last game. LSU is 6-2-1 in it's last nine non-conference games, while the Golden Eagles have failed to cover in 14 of their last 17 overall. I expect the Tigers to win by double digits.

Take LSU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks. 

The #25 ranked Oregon Ducks are off to a good start, winning their first three games which includes a 74-67 win over #16 ranked Baylor. They host the Valparaiso Crusaders on Sunday, and the Ducks are asked to cover just a handful of points. I think Valparaiso is in way over it's head here, even though they are 5-0 to start the season. The Crusaders haven't played anybody, which is my biggest issue with this team. They play in the Horizon, and last year they racked up a ton of wins against lesser teams. In fact they only lost five games all year, but never faced a single ranked opponent until bowing out of the tournament in their first game versus Maryland. During the regular season, their non-conference schedule only saw them face two teams from any of the larger conferences, and neither of those teams were anywhere near as good as Oregon. They lost at Missouri and at home to New Mexico, and both games were blowouts decided by double digits. 

Take ORE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Boston College Eagles. 

The Harvard Crimson have owned the Ivy League in recent years, but their reign of dominance might be coming to an end. Harvard has lost two of it's first three games, one of those coming at home to the Massachusetts Minutemen. I bet on UMASS in that game, and here is what I said prior to tip off: 

"The Harvard Crimson are coming off a 12-point loss to Providence, and they are a big favorite at home against an experienced UMASS team. I think Harvard is grossly overrated, based on past success. They lost their starting PG Siyani Chambers to a season ending knee injury before the season started, and that's a huge blow for this team. Siyani averaged 34 minutes playing the last three seasons for the Crimson. They started a pair of freshman in the back court in the loss to Providence."

The Eagles lost a lot of games last year, but they play with the big boys in the ACC. This is a whole different class that what Harvard is used to. The two teams met last season, and Boston College prevailed 64-57. The Eagles are coming off an 82-57 win over Central Connecticut, and they shot 50 percent from the field and 46 percent from three-point range in the win. There is every reason to expect Boston College to take care of business at home here. 

Take BC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Florida State Seminoles. 

After losing by double digits to South Carolina last night, DePaul will play Florida State in the Virgin Islands tonight. I bet on the Gamecocks in last night's game, and here is what I had to say prior to tip off: " This DePaul team is nowhere near as competitive as it has been in past seasons, and the Blue Demons are coming off a pretty tough showing last season. They lost 11 of their final 12 games last year, and come in to this game off a loss to Penn State. They really struggled shooting in that game, hitting 37.7 percent from the field, and going just 2-for-11 from beyond the arc." DePaul wasn't any better in the loss to the Gamecocks, shooting 36.5 percent from the field, and going 3-of-14 from beyond the arc. They were also out-rebounded 44-34. There isn't a lot to like about this DePaul team, and the line looks a little low considering how well Florida State has played. 

Take FSU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Michigan Wolverines. 

The Wolverines are hosting Xavier tonight, and I think they should be able to win and cover a pretty low number here. Michigan comes in feeling the hot hand, coming off some impressive performances shooting the ball. The Wolverines shot 51.7 percent from the field in their last game, beating Elon by a score of 88-68. They also went 13-of-24 from beyond the arc, and hit 13-of-15 free throws. With the increased emphasis on foul calls earlier in the season, it's more likely that games will be decided at the free throw line. I don't like the Musketeers chances of pulling off an upset in Ann Arbor against this hot shooting Wolverines team. 

Take MICH. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the South Carolina Gamecocks. 

The DePaul Blue Demons will take on the Gamecocks in the Virgin Islands tonight, and South Carolina is a significant favorite. This DePaul team is nowhere near as competitive as it has been in past seasons, and the Blue Demons are coming off a pretty tough showing last season. They lost 11 of their final 12 games last year, and come in to this game off a loss to Penn State. They really struggled shooting in that game, hitting 37.7 percent from the field, and going just 2-for-11 from beyond the arc. The Gamecocks are a gritty team that dominates on the glass, and they handled Oral Roberts with ease, cruising to an 84-66 victory on Monday. They out-rebounded the Golden Eagles 44-28 in that game, and only committed six turnovers. The Gamecocks have covered the spread in six straight non-conference games, while the Blue Demons have only covered in one of their last eight non-conference contests. They've also failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 neutral site games. 

Take SOCAR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons. 

The Dons are a big underdog on the road at Fresno State, and I think this game is destined to be close. San Francisco is 2-0, coming off a big home win over Rice. The Dons shot 50.8% from the field, and an impressive 8-of-17 from beyond the arc winning 80-54. They were quite competitive last season, playing conference rivals Gonzaga three times, and two of those games were quite close. They have a history of being a tough road team, going 42-19-1 ATS in their last 62 road games. Fresno State comes in with a record of 2-0, but they've won close games against Lamar and Pepperdine. They really shot poorly in the game against Lamar, hitting 35.7 percent from the field, and just 2-of-11 from three-point range. That's not going to cut it tonight against a much tougher San Francisco team, and I think the Bulldogs are going to have problems with this matchup. 

Take SF. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Creighton Blue Jays. 

The Indiana Hoosiers are coming off quite an impressive victory, but I still can't see why they should be a double digit favorite against a very good Blue Jays team. Indiana shot an absolutely inexplicable 66.7 percent from the field, and 59.3 percent from three-point range in a 102-76 win over Austin Peavy. Now does anybody expect them to repeat that performance here tonight ... I have my doubts. The Blue Jays are a big step up from an 0-2 Austin Peavy team, and even in their first season after losing Dougie McBuckets, they remained competitive in the Big East last year. Their notable games include beating #18 Oklahoma outright, losing by two points to #19 Butler, losing by four points to #4 Villanova, and coming up five points short to Georgetown in last year's tournament. They are coming in to tonight's game off an impressive win of their own, shooting 54.7 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from beyond the arc in a 103-78 win over UTSA. This Blue Jays team can really shoot, and they should be able to hang with the Hoosiers keeping within single digits. 

Take CRE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Miami Hurricanes. 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs were one of the worst teams in the SEC last year, with an overall record of 13-19. They haven't looked much better so far this year, coming off a home loss to the Southern Jaguars. They shot just 38.3 percent from the field in that game, and turned the ball over 19 times. They are now playing the Miami Hurricanes in Puerto Rico, and this looks like a tough matchup. The Canes finished last season strong, winning seven of their last nine, and losing to Stanford in the NIT Championship game. They are off to an impressive 2-0 start, and they looked pretty good in a win over ULL. They shot 56.4 percent from the field, and went 12-of-23 from beyond the arc winning 93-77. I expect to see a similar result here against the Bulldogs. 

Take MIA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 

Wake Forest will look to move to 3-0 as they host the 1-1 Richmond Spiders tonight. The Deacons are just a slight favorite, and I think the books are giving this Richmond team too much respect. The Spiders lost their opening game at home to James Madison, and they were dominated on the boards, losing the rebound battle by a margin of -17. They are likely going to struggle on the glass tonight, facing a Wake Forest team that has plenty of size, and has averaged 49 rebounds per game. 

These teams played last year, and the Deacons won 65-63 at Richmond. The Deacons return four of their five starters from last year, including a pair of seniors. Devin Thomas has looked good so far, averaging 19.5 points and 14.5 rebounds through the first two games. Wake Forest has covered the spread in five straight versus opponents from the A-10 Conference, and four of their last five non-conference games. They were pretty good at home last year, with outright wins over Miami, Pitt and N.C. State, and narrow losses to Duke and Virginia. They should prove to be too much for a mediocre Richmond team. 

Take WAKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.

I won 77% of my bets in last year's NCAA Tournament, and finished on a 9-0 run including a play on Duke in the Final. Most people expected to see Duke face Kentucky in the Championship Game, but Wisconsin upset the Wildcats in the Semi Final. Had it been a UK vs Duke Final, my money would have been on Duke. They were playing better basketball at the time, and I just think Coach K is a far better coach that Calipari (a very good coach in his own right). 

Now this is two very different teams that will play in Chicago tonight, but I still can't figure out why Kentucky deserves to be a favorite. The Blue Devils are the defending champs, and they come in as the more experienced of the two teams. Grayson Allen played a key role in last year's championship run, and he's now a sophomore guard coming off a career high 27 point outburst in the win over Bryant. They have seniors at center (Marshall Plumlee) and forward (Emile Jefferson). Junior guard Matt Jones averaged 21 minutes last season, leaving them with four experienced starters along with talented freshman Brandon Ingram who scored 21 points in just his second game as a starter. 

Kentucky's only senior is guard Tyler Ulis, who shot just 1-of-8 from the field scoring five points against NJIT. They have had to replace Karl Anthony Towns and Aaron Harrison with a couple of freshman. I think this marquee match-up comes just a little too early in the season for this young team. 

Take Duke. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the UMASS Minutemen. 

The Harvard Crimson are coming off a 12-point loss to Providence, and they are a big favorite at home against an experienced UMASS team. I think Harvard is grossly overrated, based on past success. They lost their starting PG Siyani Chambers to a season ending knee injury before the season started, and that's a huge blow for this team. Siyani averaged 34 minutes playing the last three seasons for the Crimson. They started a pair of freshman in the back court in the loss to Providence. 

The Minutemen are a far more experienced squad, with just one freshman and a pair of seniors in their starting five. Their two senior guards tallied 19 points a piece in the win over Howard in their season opener. These teams played here in Cambridge last year, and Harvard won by just two points. Crimson PG Siyani Chambers played 37 minutes and had nine assists. They might miss him here in this year's contest, and I can't see how they can be expected to cover such an inflated number. Harvard is 2-7 ATS in it's last nine home games, and 1-4 ATS in it's last five non-conference games. 

Take UMASS. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Diego State Aztecs. 

The Aztecs will be a significant underdog on the road at Utah tonight, and I think they can give the #13 ranked Utes a run for their money. San Diego State won it's opener by double digits, but this early in the season it's difficult to read into results with such a small sample size. One thing that immediately stands out about this game was the play of freshman PG Jeremy Helmsley who scored 20 points in his Aztecs debut. "It's a feeling I can't really describe," said Hemsley, who's from Rancho Cucamonga. "As soon as I woke up today I knew it was going to be a good day. I'm excited for this. But at the end of the day it's just the first game. We just have to continue to do what we do." The point guard position was a weakness for San Diego State last year, and if Helmsley is as good as he's expected to be, they could be a better team this season. Utah took care of business in it's opener, but shot just 56 percent from the free throw line in an 82-71 win over Southern Utah. The Aztecs beat the Utes at home by a score of 53-49 last year, and they've won the last six meetings between the two teams. This game should be a good one, and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes right down to the wire. 

Take SDSU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Santa Clara Broncos.

Both the Santa Clara Broncos and the Denver Pioneers came up short in their season openers last night, but I like Santa Clara to bounce back at home against an inferior Denver team. The Pioneers finished near the bottom of the Summit Conference last year, with an overall record of 12-18. They got blown out last night in a loss to Milwaukee, despite shooting 52.4% from the field, and 7-of-17 from beyond the arc. They got killed on the glass, as Milwaukee out-rebounded them 31-19. The Broncos owned the glass in their game, pulling in 51 rebounds against Lipscomb. Denver is just 4-10 ATS in it's last 10 road games, and it has failed to cover in six of it's last eight non-conference games. The Broncos have had little trouble roughing up weaker teams, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

Take Santa Clara.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils (1st half).

It's hard not to be impressed with the Badgers at this point, they did what 38 other teams before them failed to do, and that's beat Kentucky. As well as they played against the Wildcats, they still face a tough Duke team just a few days later, and it's going to be tough for Wisconsin to avoid a let down. Coach K's team has had quick starts in all of it's game in the tournament, and I like the Blue Devils chances of catching Wisconsin sleeping in the first half of the Final. The Badgers have not been blowing anyone out, in fact they've been relatively slow starters all season long, including an 80-70 loss to Duke back in December. If you've watched the Badgers play, you have to admit that they've been riding a good run of luck, with late game heroics becoming the norm for this team. That's not at all the case for Duke, who have completely shut down the opposition allowing just 55 points per game during the tourney. Another fast start will be crucial for Duke, and I expect them to execute out of the gates, as they have been doing all year.

Take Duke.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.

The Spartans have certainly been at their best during the month of March, despite a mediocre season they have advanced all the way to the Final Four. Of the four remaining teams, Michigan State has had the easiest path. They started slow in each of their last two games, trailing at the half versus Oklahoma and Louisville. Duke's journey through the tournament has been far more impressive, and for the most part, they've outclassed the opposition from start to finish. A 66-52 win over Gonzaga is a particularly impressive result. They've also proved that they are no "one trick pony", as even when Jahlil Okafor has an off night, Justise Winslow picks up the slack, and against Gonzaga their perimeter shooting prowess was on full display. They hit 8-of-19 from beyond the arc, which is even more impressive when you consider the venue in Houston. Teams had shot a combined 39.8 percent in nine NCAA Tournament games at NRG prior to last Friday. The Blue Devils haven't wasted any time jumping out to early leads in all four of their games in this tournament, and I like their chances of jumping all over the Spartans early. The Spartans have done just enough to get past mediocre teams so far, and I don't think they'll have what it takes to beat a Duke team that defeated them by double digits earlier this year. 

Take Duke. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

For the life of me I can't figure out what Duke has done to deserve such a lack of respect here in their Sweet 16 matchup against the Utah Utes? The Blue Devils won 14 of their last 15 games of the regular season, in what might prove to be the toughest conference in the country. They were ousted in the conference tournament by the same Notre Dame team that handed them their only loss of the second half of the season. They avenged that loss in a big way though just a few weeks later, crushing the Irish by a score of 90-60. 

For most of the year they have been ranked in the Top 3, and they own the 3rd best shooting percentage in the country hitting above 50% from the field. They average over 80 points per game ranking 4th in the country in scoring. That scoring prowess was on full display in an 85-56 win over Robert Morris in the first round. They crushed San Diego State on Sunday, winning 68-49, and Jahlil Okafor scored 26 points. 

I've heard the experts on ESPN say that Utah has the players to match up against Okafor, and my first thought is .. "What the #### are they talking about". I think any suggestion of Utah matching up well with Duke is laughable, they haven't see a team like Duke all year. They only faced four ranked opponents this season, and the best of those teams was Arizona, who beat them in both games in a home series by a combined 24 points. They also lost neutral site games to Kansas, and the same San Diego State team that Duke crushed last week. 

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.

For the life of me I can't figure out what Duke has done to deserve such a lack of respect here in their second round matchup against San Diego State? The Blue Devils won 14 of their last 15 games of the regular season, in what might prove to be the toughest conference in the country. They were ousted in the conference tournament by the same Notre Dame team that handed them their only loss of the second half of the season. They avenged that loss in a big way though just a few weeks later, crushing the Irish by a score of 90-60.

For most of the year they have been ranked in the Top 3, and they own the 3rd best shooting percentage in the country hitting above 50% from the field. They average over 80 points per game ranking 4th in the country in scoring. That scoring prowess was on full display in an 85-56 win over Robert Morris in the first round. The Aztecs have been the creme of the crop in the Mountain West for quite some time, but they failed to dominate in their conference this year, with one of the nation's most futile offenses.

They rely on their defense to make up for the fact that they average just over 60 points per game, and rank 263rd overall shooting 41.9% from the field. They have yet to face the likes of Jahlil Okafor and Duke, and I think it would be a little naive to expect the Aztecs to hang with Duke today.

Take DUKE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the UCLA Bruins.

The UAB Blazers did beat Iowa State in the first round, and nobody can take that away from them. I can't judge them based on that game alone though, and when I look at their entire body of work, the overwhelming conclusion has to be that they have no business going any further in this tournament. They finished fifth in the C-USA, that's right .. Fifth! Take a look at their non conference schedule and you will see that they were crushed by Wisconsin, Florida, Illinois State, LSU and Chattanooga. While none of those games were close, perhaps the most telling is that they lost in a neutral site game versus UCLA by a score of 88-76. That was back at the end of November, and the Bruins have seriously stepped up their game since then. The Pac-12 is often under estimated, but it's no joke. Arizona is one of the best teams in the country, and UCLA has played them neck and neck twice in recent weeks. I think the Bruins should be a double digit favorite here, and I think they should dominate this game from start to finish.

Take UCLA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Michigan State Spartans. 

The Spartans have looked pretty mediocre at times this year, but they appear to be peaking at the right time. They went all the way to the Final in the Big-10 Tournament, and came ever so close to upsetting Wisconsin, but eventually lost in overtime. They will play the Goergia Bulldogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament Friday, and Georgia looks like a team that may be on the decline. The Bulldogs have also struggled against the Big-10, covering just twice in their last eight versus Big-10 teams. An injury to junior guard Kenny Gaines could prove to be costly for the Bulldogs, as Gaines is their second leading scorer and best perimeter defender. Gaines has played only 27 minutes scoring nine points over the last three games, and didn't play at all in the loss to Arkansas. His status for today's game remains in question: "If the foot feels up to it," Gaines said, "then me and the foot will be out there playing hard.". The Spartans have covered the spread in five of their last six non conference games, and they are 5-2-1 in their last eight versus the SEC. 

Take MSU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Notre Dame.

The Irish come in to the NCAA Tournament off consecutive upsets over Duke and North Carolina to claim the ACC Title. They are a double digit favorite over Northeastern, but I don't think they'll have much trouble covering the spread against an inferior opponent here. I find it hard to be impressed by the Huskies first place finish in the CAA, as there just aren't any quality opponent's in their league. Their non-conference schedule didn't include a lot of quality teams either, and they were blown out by Harvard and UMASS. The Irish rank second overall in the country shooting 51% from the field this season, and they shot 54.2% in the win over the Tar Heels Saturday. For whatever reason, Notre Dame just isn't getting the respect due to a team with a 29-5 record, and that was true when they were an underdog to the Tar Heels. I don't see Northeastern keeping up offensively, and we should see Notre Dame win by a substantial margin.

Take ND.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on UTEP.

The Murray State Racers are getting a lot of press, as some have questioned why they were left out of the NCAA Tournament. Dick Vitale even gave a rant on national television in which he said he felt that the committee was rewarding mediocre teams that were less deserving of a spot. I am going to have to strongly disagree with Dickie "V", as a perfect 16-0 record in the Ohio Valley conference doesn't impress me at all. The fact remains that Murray State only played two teams that made the tournament, and they lost those two games by a combined 62 points. They lost 89-62 at Xavier, and were blown out by a score of 93-58 in a neutral site game against Valparaiso. Now they enter the NIT as a big favorite against a UTEP team that has faced no shortage of quality opponents in it's non-conference schedule. The Miners beat Xavier (yes the same team that crushed Murray State), and won by double digits at home to Washington State. They also played close games against Colorado State, Washington and Arizona. They lost to the #3 ranked Wildcats by just five points back in December. The Miners have lost just three of their last 13 overall, and two of those losses came by less than five points.

Take UTEP.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Maryland Terrapins.

Maryland finished second in the Big-10 behind Wisconsin, and they come into Saturday's semifinal game against Michigan State as winners of eight in a row. One of those wins was a 59-55 upset over Wisconsin, and the Terps also swept the season series versus Sparty. It's Michigan State though that has won a national title, a runner-up finish and been to the Final Four six times since 1999 under head coach Tom Izzo. Perhaps that is the reason why they are a favorite against a team with a better record, that has owned them this season. In my mind Maryland should be a slight favorite here, and the fact that they are getting points in a game that could well be decided in the final minute, makes this play worthy of a 10* rating. The Terps have won all three of their neutral site games this season, and they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on neutral territory. Maryland's leading scorer Melo Trimble lit up the Spartans for 24 points on 8-of-16 shooting in a 75-59 home win in the most recent meeting between these two teams. Again .. who's the underdog?

Take Maryland.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma Sooners. 

I had the Sooners last night in their win over rivals Oklahoma State, and here is what I said prior to the game: " Oklahoma also closed the season on a red hot run, winning nine of their last 11. I actually bet against them in both of their two losses during that span, and count myself very lucky to have escaped disaster when they blew a 20+ point lead at Iowa State. The Sooners have the Big-12 player of the year, and conference scoring leader in Buddy Hield..." Tonight's game will be an opportunity for Oklahoma to avenge that terrible loss to the Cyclones, and I like their chances here in Kansas City. The Cyclones got off to a slow start in last night's game versus Texas, trailing by double-digits at the half. They rallied and ended up winning with a buzzer beater, but were fortunate to have escaped with a win. I think their luck is due to run out tonight. 

Take OKLA. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

The Missouri Tigers will wrap up the regular season on the road at Mississippi State, and even if they were to win this game, the best they could hope for is a last place tie with Auburn in the SEC standings. That doesn't provide a lot of motivation for the visitors, and they face a Bulldogs team that is all geared up to finish the season with a win on Senior Day. The Tigers have been brutal on the road, with an ATS record of 3-12-1 in their last 16 road games. Missouri's leading scorer is injured for the remainder of the season, and they certainly missed him in their last road game. They shot just 14-of-49 (28.6%) from the field in a 68-44 loss to Georgia. I expect to see them struggle here in Mississippi as well, and another double digit loss appears to be a likely result.

Take MISST.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the San Francisco Dons. 

The San Francisco Dons will face Pacific in the first round of the WCC Tournament on Friday, and the Dons just beat the Tigers last week. San Francisco was 24-of-50 (48%) from the field in a 65-55 home win over Pacific last Saturday. The Dons have won four straight in this series, with all of those wins coming by five or more points. The Tigers have covered the spread in just three of their last seven overall, while the Dons have been one of the best bets in the West Coast Conference in recent seasons. San Francisco is 49-22 ATS in it's last 71 versus conference opponents. Pacific has just three wins in it's last 14 games overall, and it looks like a tough ask for it to compete with a superior opponent in this neutral site game. 

Take SF. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Iowa State Cyclones. 

Iowa State is coming off back to back losses to K-State and Baylor. They had won 14 straight at home before falling victim to a clinical shooting display by the Bears last week. Baylor shot 14-of-26 (53.8%) from three point range in that game, and I don't think Oklahoma can pull that off here on the road tonight. The Sooners have lost three straight visits to Ames, and they are just 5-5 on the road this season. They are only averaging 68.8 points per game on the road, while the Cyclones are averaging a whopping 82.1 points per game at home. Oklahoma has failed to cover in five of it's last seven road games, and tonight's contest appears to be a tougher challenge than most of those previous seven games. 

Take ISU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the BYU Cougars. 

The Cougars come in hot as winners of five straight, but they are a double digit dog on the road at Gonzaga tonight. The Bulldogs have also been cruising, winning 22 in a row. They came very close to a loss just last Saturday though, needing to come back from an 11 point halftime deficit to beat the second place St. Mary's Gaels. They went on to win that game by a score of 70-60, but that score is a little deceiving, as Gonzaga scored eight unanswered points in the final 61 seconds. The Cougars lead the nation in scoring averaging 84.4 points per game, and they've covered the spread in eight of their last 11 road games. They lost their last visit to Spokane by a score of 75-64, close enough to cover the big number in tonight's game. With the visitors getting such a big cushion, I'll take the points. 

Take BYU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Wichita State Shockers (1st Half). 

Wichita State was shocked by the Northern Illinois Panthers in Cedar Falls at the end of January, but the Shockers have since won seven straight. Three of those seven wins have come at home, by an average margin of 23 points. Wichita State owns a 14-0 record at home, and since 2012 the Shockers have won all three of their home games versus Northern Iowa by a double digit margin. Aside from the loss to the Panthers, Wichita State has cruised through conference play. That's not the case for Northern Iowa, who lost on the road at Evansville. This is a revenge spot for the Shockers, and I expect them to come out in the first half with a well executed game plan. The Shockers are the creme of the crop in this conference, and that's unlikely to change today. 

Take WICH. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

8*

This is an 8* play on the UCLA Bruins.

The Bruins aren't the Pac-12 powerhouse that they used to be, but they've still been very good at home this season. UCLA is 13-1 at home, and hosting the Washington Huskies tonight will give them an opportunity to add to those numbers. Washington opened the season with 11 straight wins, but have since won just four of their next 15. They upset their rivals Washington State on Saturday, but I think that sets up a let down here on the road just a few days later. Ultimately this game doesn't mean a lot to the Huskies, who could be looking ahead to their final two home games against Utah and Colorado. Washington has really missed big man Robert Upshaw, who lead the nation in blocked shots before his dismissal from the team. UCLA should win big here at home.

Take UCLA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Iowa State Cyclones.

The Cyclones will put their perfect 14-0 home record to the test tonight, hosting the Baylor Bears. Iowa State is hot right now, coming off back to back road win over Oklahoma State and Texas. The Bears have won consecutive games against Big-12 lightweights K-State and Texas Tech, but had previously lost to Kansas and Oklahoma State by a combined 19 points. Baylor has a tough history in previous trips to Iowa, where they've never won. They've also failed to cover in nine straight road games versus the Cyclones. The Bears beat the Cyclones in Waco earlier this year, but I expect Iowa State to avenge that loss here with a double digit home win.

Take ISU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.

The Aggies trail Arkansas by just one game in the SEC standings, but they are a big dog here tonight. Texas A&M has won 10 of it's last 12, and four of it's last five on the road.

The Razorbacks though are 16-1 at home. Guess how many of those wins came against SEC teams with a winning record? The answer might surprise you, as not one of their six home wins during conference play have come against teams with a winning record (withing the conference).

The Aggies are 5-2 on the road during conference play, and they should enjoy a significant advantage on the glass here tonight. The Razorbacks narrowly escaped with a 65-61 win at Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs out-rebounded them 42-31. Arkansas has been losing the battle on the boards at a rate of -6.4 in their last five. The Aggies have averaged 3.9 rebounds more than their opposition over their last 12 games.

The Aggies rank among the top teams in the conference defensively, and they should be able to keep this game close.

Take TAM.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Missouri Tigers.

Missouri has lost 13 straight since opening conference play with a win over LSU back on January 8th. They are a home dog to Florida tonight, and the Gators have lost five of their last six. The one win during that span came at home by a score of 50-47 over Vanderbilt. The Gators have just two wins in nine game games on the road, and both of those wins came by less than five points. Florida's leading scorer Michael Frazier remains sidelined with an ankle injury, and the team has struggled without him. Florida lost it's last visit to Missouri by a score of 63-60.

Take MIZZ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the West Virginia Mountaineers.

The Longhorns are coming off back to back losses to Iowa State and Oklahoma, and their tournament hopes are fading quickly. They will be on the road at West Virginia tonight, and the Mountaineers are coming off consecutive wins over Kansas at home, and Oklahoma State on the road. West Virginia is a solid 10-3 at home, while Texas is just 4-5 on the road. After losing big at Texas earlier this season, this is a revenge spot for WVU, who has been the hotter of the two teams. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in five of their last seven home games versus teams with a winning record.

Take WVU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Washington State Cougars.

The Cougars will host rivals Washington at Pullman tonight, with a chance to sweep the season series. The Huskies would like to avenge a home loss to Wazzu earlier this season, but they haven't been anywhere near competitive since dismissing big man Robert Upshaw. Washington has lost seven straight, failing to cover in all by one of those games. The Cougars have won three of their six home games during conference play, and none of those were easy games. They beat the Ducks, Cardinal and Sun Devils, while losing to Arizona, Utah and Oregon State. The Cougars won at home by a score of 72-67 over the Huskies last year, and they should be able to hand their rivals an eighth consecutive defeat here tonight.

Take WSU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Florida State Seminoles.

The Virginia Cavaliers are still the #2 ranked team in the nation, with just one loss so far this season. They've struggled though since losing leading scorer Justin Anderson. Since losing to Duke at the end of January, Virginia has won five straight, but only one of those wins came by double digits. They are asked to cover another big number at home tonight, against a Seminoles team that has won back to back road games. Florida State has won six of it's last nine overall, and the three losses during that span came by an average margin of fewer than five points. They lost by four at Chapel Hill, and gave Duke a run for it's money in a 73-70 loss at home. Virginia has won three straight versus FSU, but none of those three victories came by a margin as great as the number they are asked to cover tonight. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, and that is a trend that will likely to continue here.

Take FSU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Oregon Ducks.

The Utah Utes have won five straight, and seven of their last eight overall. They've had a favorable schedule during that time though, and tonight's opponent has a better record than any of the teams they beat during that stretch. The Oregon Ducks have also been playing well lately, winning five of their last six. The Ducks are 16-2 at home, while the Utes are 5-3 on the the road. Utah's most recent win came at Oregon State, and that game was a lot closer than the score would indicate. The Beavers trailed by just two at halftime, but the Utes pulled away in the final minute and went on to win by 10. The Ducks have won five of the last six meetings in series outright, including a 70-68 overtime win at Utah in the most recent meeting last January. I like the Ducks getting points at home in a game that they could easily win outright.

Take ORE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are coming off another heartbreaking loss to rivals Ole Miss, in a game that they could have easily won. It followed the same script as the previous meeting, with the the Bulldogs opening up a big lead in the first half, only to watch the Rebels battle back in the second half. Both games went right down to the wire, but the Bulldogs failed to cover by just a half a point on Thursday.

Here is what I said prior to the game: "Wins haven't come easy for the Rebels in Starksville, losing four straight road games in this series. History tells us to expect a close game between these two SEC rivals, and the visitors could be asked to cover a few too many points.

The road team has only covered in one of the last nine meetings between these two teams, and Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in it's last six home games versus a team with a road winning % of greater than .600."

Tonight they host Arkansas, and they are once again getting a significant cushion. The history in this series is quite similar, with the home team covering the spread in 20 of the last 28 meetings. The Bulldogs have won three of their last four home meetings with Arkansas outright, and the lone loss in that span came by just four points.

Take MISST.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Missouri Tigers.

Missouri has lost 12 straight, and it will be a double digit dog on the road at Vanderbilt Saturday. The Commodores have just three wins in their last 12 games, and they lost their last home game to Tennessee by a score of 76-73. Missouri has won three of the last four meetings in this series, and three of those games were decided by just three points. Vanderbilt is coming off a loss at Florida, and this team just doesn't inspire much confidence as a double digit home favorite.

Take MIZZ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Syracuse Orange.

The Orange looked impressive in a home win over Louisville on Wednesday, and they host Pittsburgh this afternoon. The Panthers have won four straight at home, but they haven't enjoyed the same success on the road, losing four straight since beating Boston College in overtime on January 6th. The Panthers might have trouble slowing down Rakeem Christmas who went off for 29 points on 9-of-10 shooting in the win over Louisville. He scored 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting in an 83-77 loss at Pittsburgh earlier this season. I like the Orange to avenge that loss here today. Pitt has covered the spread just once in it's last 12 road games.

Take SYR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs will host rivals Ole Miss tonight, and they'll look to avenge a 79-73 loss at Oxford last month. They took control of that game early and went to the locker room with a four point lead at halftime. The Rebels battled back in the second half, and were fortunate to have come away with a win.

Wins haven't come easy for the Rebels in Starksville, losing four straight road games in this series. History tells us to expect a close game between these two SEC rivals, and the visitors could be asked to cover a few too many points.

The road team has only covered in one of the last nine meetings between these two teams, and Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in it's last six home games versus a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

The Rebels last won on the road against a beaten up Florida team without it's leading scorer, and they won that game by just one point.

Take MISST.

GL,

Jesse Schule]

This is an 8* play on the SMU Mustangs.

The Mustangs are at the top of the AAC, sitting two games ahead of Temple. The Owls are in Texas tonight, and I think they are going to be in big trouble against an SMU team that has been dominant at home.

The Mustangs are coming off a 73-55 blowout win over UCONN, and all of their home wins during conference play have come in games decided by a double digit margin.

They've been a particularly good bet at home versus teams with a winning record, covering eight of their last nine. The Mustangs already beat Temple in Philly, and the Owls have also lost to Cincinnati and Tulsa. Last season's meeting here in Texas was a laugher, with the Mustangs winning 75-52.

We should see history repeat itself here tonight.

Take SMU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Oregon Ducks.

The Colorado Buffaloes will be in Oregon tonight, and they've won four straight against the Ducks. This year's team isn't quite as talented as it was in years past, and I think they will be in tough tonight. The Ducks are 15-2 at home, while the Buffaloes are just 1-7 on the road. Colorado has only covered the spread twice in it's last nine road games. The Ducks won their last home game by a score of 95-72 over Washington State, and I expect a similar result tonight versus Colorado.

Take ORE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Fresno State Bulldogs.

The Colorado State Rams cruised through the first half of the season, but they've found the going a little tougher against the top teams in the conference. They've lost three straight on the road, but they are a favorite at Fresno State tonight. The Bulldogs have won three straight home games, most recently against the Boise State Broncos. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the spread just once in their last nine home games. They've won three of their last four home meetings versus the Rams, including a 75-66 win last season. Colorado State meanwhile has covered the points just three times in it's last 14 road games.

Take FRES.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Missouri Tigers.

The Tigers have lost 11 straight, and they are an enormous underdog on the road at Arkansas tonight. Their last two losses have come in close games decided by five points or less. The Razorbacks have won their last two home games by a combined 40 points, but these two teams have a history of playing close games. Arkansas escaped with a 61-60 victory at Missouri earlier this season, and five of the last six meetings have been decided by five points or less. The only exception was a 93-63 home win for the Tigers in 2013. Missouri has covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings.

Take MIZZ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.

The Blue Devils will host ACC rivals North Carolina tonight, and Duke is a significant home favorite. The Tar Heels are coming off a double digit loss at Pitt, and I can't see any reason to expect a more favorable result here tonight. Duke is 11-1 at home so far, and it crushed the Irish by a score of 90-60 in it's most recent home game. Jahlil Okafor just gets better with every game, and he scored 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting in the win over the Orange Saturday. Duke won at home by a score of 93-81 in the most recent meeting between these two teams, and I expect a similar result tonight.

Take Duke.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores.

The Commodores have won three of their last four overall, and that streak started with a home win over the Gators. With many expecting Florida to execute revenge at home tonight, the visitors are getting a bunch of points. I am not convinced the Gators are as good as people seem to think they are, and wouldn't be surprised to see a close game here in Gainesville. While Florida turned in a solid effort at home against Kentucky, they lost their leading scorer Michael Frazier to an ankle injury in that game. They've since lost at home to Ole Miss and on the road at Texas A&M, and I don't like their chances of covering a significant number tonight.

Take Vandy.

GL,

Jesse Schule