This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Fresno State Bulldogs.

San Diego State has long been the top team in the Mountain West, but they've taken a back seat this year to the likes of Nevada, Boise State and Fresno State. The Bulldogs are one of five teams that are ahead of the Aztecs in the conference standings, and their 10-1 home record is one of the reasons why. Fresno State swept the season series last year, winning 68-63 at San Diego in the most recent meeting. They haven't lost a home game in conference play, and they have already beaten the best teams in the Mountain West at home. The Aztecs have lost three of their last four road games, and they have only scored 62.1 points per game on 38 percent shooting on the road this season. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in five of their last six home games, while the Aztecs have failed to cover in six of their last seven road games.

Take FRES.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Jose State Spartans.

New Mexico is coming off a road win at UNLV, in a game that they trailed until the dying minutes. They won by a score of 80-77, avenging their home loss to the Rebels earlier this season. Here is what I said prior to that game: "This is a revenge spot for New Mexico after losing at home to the Rebels by a score of 71-66 earlier this year. The Lobos might be hard pressed to earn a better result here tonight though, coming off a blowout loss to Nevada. Not only did they lose that game by 17 points, they also lost a pair of starters to injury. Most notable is leading scorer Tim Williams, who is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Sophomore guard Dane Kuiper suffered a concussion in the loss to Nevada, and he's expected to be out at least a couple weeks. Kuiper had a team high 17 points in the loss to the Rebels earlier this year." The Lobos are asked to cover a big number here in Saturday's game against San Jose State, who have lost five of their last eight. Not one of those losses came by more than 10 points though, and I don't think a shorthanded New Mexico team should be such a huge favorite.

Take SJSU

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Illinois.

I bet on Illinois as a home dog in their last game versus Wisconsin. They came out a little flat, and Wisconsin jumped out to an early 12-2 lead. They would play the Badgers even he rest of the way, and held them to just 55 points. Here is what I had to say before that game: "The Fighting Illini are just 3-6 in conference play, but five of those six losses have come on the road. Their only home loss during conference play, came by just six points against BIG10 leaders Maryland. They are 10-2 overall at home, and they've averaged 80.5 points on 49.2 percent shooting in those games." The Illini have won six of the last seven in this series, and Minnesota is just 2-4 on the road. The Gophers have score just 66 points on 39 percent shooting on the road, and they should struggle against an Illinois team that has held opponents to just 68.8 points per game at home. The Gophers have failed to cover in 20 of their last 27 versus Illinois.

Take ILL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Creighton Blue Jays.

After losing starting guard Maurice Watson, Creighton struggled, losing back to back games to Georgetown and Marquette. They bounced back big time with a 76-67 win at Butler on Tuesday. They have made the necessary adjustments, and in the absence of Watson Jr, guards Khyri Thomas and Marcus Foster combined to score 30 points on 11-of-22 shooting. Creighton is a monster at home, boasting an 11-2 record with wins over a pair of ranked teams (Butler and Wisconsin). They have scored an average of 84.6 points on 52.8 percent shooting at home, and this Xavier team shows no signs of being able to match that kind of offensive production. The Musketeers are coming off a rather uninspiring win over Seton Hall by just two points, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven overall. They couldn't handle Creighton at home, and I don't think they'll be able to hang with them here in Nebraska.

Take CRE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Richmond Spiders.

The Richmond Spiders are just a half a game out of first place in the A-10 Conference, and they have a home game against bottom feeders George Washington Saturday. The Spiders won at George Washington by a score of 77-70 earlier this season, and they've four of five home games in conference play. That includes wins over powerhouse teams like Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure. The Colonials have lost three of their last four road games, with all three of those losses coming by a double digit margin. George Washington has failed to cover in six of it's last seven, and is just 1-4 ATS in it's last five road games. Richmond has covered the spread in eight of it's last 10 conference games, and is 4-1 ATS in it's last five versus George Washington.

Take RICH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Davidson Wildcats.

Davidson got off to a bit of a shaky start this season, and a few weeks ago I bet heavily against them when they played at La Salle. Here is what I said prior to that game: "Davidson is normally one of the top teams in this conference, but this year's squad is struggling. They've lost three of four in conference play, and that includes home losses to Richmond and Fordham. Davidson's leading scorer Jack Gibbs was just 3-of-17 from the field in his last game, and the team as a whole shot just 28.9 percent from the field." They would end up losing 91-83 in that game, but have since won three straight. All three of those wins have come by double digits, and they held opponents to an average of just 62 points per game during that span. The Wildcats are 6-2 at home, and they host the Rhode Island Rams, who are just 2-5 on the road. Those two road wins came against bottom feeders Saint Louis and Duquense. Davidson beat the Rams at home last year by a score of 65-54, and I expect a similar result this time around.

Take DAV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Quinnipiac Bobcats.

The Bobcats have been making big money for betters in conference play, covering the spread in eight of their last nine games overall. I was fortunate enough to have them in several of those games. Here is what I said prior to their loss at Siena (they covered): "The Bobcats are coming off another loss on the road at St. Peters on Monday, and they are now just 6-10 overall. While they might not be getting wins, they have covered the spread in four straight games. They have been very competitive, especially on the road where they are 3-0 ATS in their last three. They are getting a bunch of points here at Siena, and the Saints are struggling. Siena hasn't covered the spread in nine straight games, and their last game was a 56-54 home win over the same St. Peters team that Quinnipiac nearly beat on the road. The Bobcats are killing it on the boards, averaging 40 rebounds per game over their last five. They out-rebounded St. Peters 40-28, and I expect the visitors to own the boards again tonight. Don't be surprised if the underdog gets an outright win here at Siena."  The Saints managed to win that game by a score of 81-74, but I don't like their chances of doing it again on the road. They've been brutal on the road all year, winning just twice in 13 road games. They scored an average of just 70.9 points in those games, while Quinnipiac has averaged 82.6 points at home. The Bobcats have scored 90+ points in their last two home games, wins over Iona and Canisius.

Take QUIN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Iowa.

I bet on the Buckeyes in their last game, and they beat Minnesota by a score of 78-72 at home. They are playing at Iowa on Saturday, in what appears to be a much tougher game. Iowa should be hungry, coming off three straight losses. Two of those three defeats came on the road, and they lost a close game at home to BIG10 leaders Maryland. Their last win as an upset of #17 ranked Purdue, at home at Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have had a tough season, but they are still 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games. They've scored an average of 87.2 points on 47.4 percent shooting at home, and it's going to be difficult for the Buckeyes to match that kind of offensive production. Ohio State has scored an average of just 68.3 points per game on 44.4 percent shooting on the road. The Buckeyes aren't making bettors any money as an underdog, failing to cover in five of their last seven when getting points on the road.

Take IOWA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

I bet on Georgia Tech in their last game, getting 8.5 points at home to #6 ranked Florida State. They won that game outright by a score of 78-56, and here is what I said before tip off: "Georgia Tech is just 3-4 in conference play, but three of those four losses came on the road. They've played a lot better at home, including a 75-63 win over the Tar Heels." The Yellow Jackets have been the underdog in each of their last seven games against the Irish, and they've covered in all seven of those games. To say that these teams have played close games in recent meetings would be an understatement. In Notre Dame's last four visits to Atlanta, they've lost twice by a single point, won by two points, and lost by five points. There no reason why we should expect them to cover a big number here in this game.

Take GT.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are off to a good start, winning four of six games against SEC teams so far. They've played some of the weakest teams in the conference though, and hey were humbled in 20-point loss at Auburn in their last game. I think they could be looking at another one-sided loss here at Georgia. The Bulldogs are 4-3 in conference play, but two of those three losses came against SEC heavyweights (Florida and South Carolina). Georgia has won four straight against Alabama, covering the spread in all four of those wins. Alabama is just 2-7 ATS in their last seven visits to Georgia, and they've had a tough time scoring points in those games. The Tide are averaging just 67.4 points per game on the road, and that's not likely going to cut it here in Athens.

Take UGA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Quinnipiac Bobcats.

The Bobcats beat Iona at home just last week, and they are currently among the hottest teams in the conference, with a record of 5-4 versus MAAC teams. They aren't the sexiest team in their conference, and they don't get a lot of respect from bookmakers. They've been the underdog in six of their last seven overall, and they've covered the spread in all seven of those games. I've bet on the Bobcats several times during that stretch, and the bookmakers aren't giving me any reason to jump off the bandwagon here today, giving them a double-digit cushion against a team that they just beat. Iona is a talented team that scores a lot of points, but the Gaels have given up an average of 84 points per game in their last five. They are coming off a 96-89 home win over Fairfield, yet they are asked to win by a far greater margin here against a superior Quinnipiac team. These teams have a history of playing each other tough, and the Bobcats have been playing everyone tough this season. Quinnipiac has covered the spread in each of it's last 6 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.

Take QUIN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Norther Illinois Huskies.

The Ohio Bobcats were cruising in the MAC, winning their first three games in conference play. The lost their leading scorer Antonio Campbell in last week's game against Eastern Michigan, and without him they scored just 53 points on 30.4 percent shooting. They lost to the Eagles at home, and then went out on the road to play Akron at mid week. Things didn't get much better against the Zips, losing by 15 points (83-68). They play the second best team in the MAC on the road today, and Northern Illinois is particularly strong at home. The Huskies are 8-2 at home this season, and they were an incredible 18-1 at home last year. NIU is 17-6 ATS in it's last 23 home games, and I think they'll mop the floor with a shorthanded Bobcats team.

Take NIU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest has lost four of five games in conference play, but they've had a tough schedule, much tougher than Miami. Three of their four losses come against Top 25 teams (Virginia, North Carolina and Florida State). Most recently they lost 93-87 at home to the Tar Heels, which is an impressive result against one of the top teams in the country. Miami is 2-2 in conference play, and their wins have come against lesser opponents in Pittsburgh and North Carolina State. They lost at home to Notre Dame, and were blown out by a score of 70-55 at Syracuse. Miami was a favorite in each of it's last two games at Wake Forest, but lost both those games outright by a combined 17 points. The Deacons are scoring an average of 86.9 points on 49.2 percent shooting at home, and it will be tough for the Hurricanes to keep up offensively. Miami has failed to cover the spread in five of it's last six road games, and is 1-5-1 ATS in it's last seven visits to Wake Forest.

Take WAKE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Akron Zips.

The Zips are the top team in the MAC, coming into tonight's home game against Ohio with a perfect 4-0 conference record. The Bobcats are tied for second in the conference, but are coming off a tough home loss to Eastern Michigan. They shot just 30.4 percent from the field in that game, and leading scorer Antonio Campbell left after playing just three minutes, suffering a foot injury. He's not expected to return for tonight's game, and that's going to make it tough for Ohio to hang in there against a team that has had their number in recent seasons. The Zips have won four of the last five meetings in this series, covering the spread in all three home meetings during that span. Akron won the last meeting by a score of 91-76, and the Zips are 8-0 at home this season. The Bobcats have failed to cover in four straight road games, and that's a trend likely to continue tonight.

Take AKR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have reigned supreme in the WCC in recent seasons, but this year St. Mary's poses a serious threat for the top spot in the conference. The Gaels won both meetings last season, winning at Gonzaga by a score of 63-58. Both games were close, decided by an average margin of just four points. Gonzaga is still undefeated, while St. Mary's is 15-1 overall. The Gaels have won nine straight games by a double-digit margin, and have shot 51.4 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from beyond the arc over their last five games. The most impressive thing about this year's St. Mary's squad though is their defense. They have held opponents to just 56.6 points per game this season, and they've allowed even fewer points on the road (50.6 PPG). The home team has failed to cover the spread in four straight meetings in this series, and I think Gonzaga is asked to cover a few too many points here tonight.

Take SMC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Quinnipiac Bobcats.

The Bobcats are coming off another loss on the road at St. Peters on Monday, and they are now just 6-10 overall. While they might not be getting wins, they have covered the spread in four straight games. They have been very competitive, especially on the road where they are 3-0 ATS in their last three. They are getting a bunch of points here at Siena, and the Saints are struggling. Sienna hasn't covered the spread in nine straight games, and their last game was a 56-54 home win over the same St. Peters team that Quinnipiac nearly beat on the road. The Bobcats are killing it on the boards, averaging 40 rebounds per game over their last five. They out-rebounded St. Peters 40-28, and I expect the visitors to own the boards again tonight. Don't be surprised if the underdog gets an outright win here at Siena.

Take QUIN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duquense Dukes.

The Saint Louis Bilikens were the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference just four seasons ago, but they've fallen a long way since then. They were just 5-13 in conference play last season, and they only won three road games all year. The Bilikens have lost all three games within the conference so far this year, and all those losses were blowouts. The average margin of defeat in those games was a whopping 22 points. Saint Louis lost both meetings versus Duquense last season, and each of those losses came by double-digits. The Dukes have won and covered in four straight versus Saint Louis, and this year's squad looks a lot better than the team that finished 10th in the A-10 a year ago. The Bilikens have averaged just 51.3 points per game on 37.2 percent shooting on the road, and their leading scorer Jermaine Bishop has missed the last six games with an ankle injury. Saint Louis is just 8-20 in it's last 28 on the road.

Take DUQ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Villanova.

The Musketeers won their last meeting versus rivals Villanova, winning 93-80 at home last February. They had lost the previous six meetings in this series though, and failed to cover in all six losses. They were blown out by a whopping 31-point margin at Villanova last year, and they've lost by double-digits in each of their last four visits to The Pavilion. The Wildcats lost their first game of the season at Butler last week, but responded immediately by easily beating Marquette in their next game. The final score in that game was 93-81, but the 12-point margin of victory is a little misleading. They led by as much as 27 midway through the second half, and Marquette didn't get within 20 points until the final 1:39 of the game. A meaningless three-point shot at the buzzer made the game appear closer than it really was. The Musketeers have lost two of three on the road so far, averaging just 69.3 points on 36 percent shooting in those games. Villanova is averaging 81.1 points on 52 percent shooting while remaining undefeated (7-0) at home. History tells us the home team should run away with this one.

Take VILL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.

The Hokies opened conference play with a dominant win over a shorthanded Duke team, and now they head out on the road to face N.C. State. The Wolfpack have an 11-3 record, but not one of their wins has come against a quality opponent. They have been an underdog just three times this season, losing all three of those games to Miami, Illinois and Creighton. Last year N.C. State finished with a losing record, and they were just 5-13 versus the ACC. The Hokies were 13-5 in conference play, and they won on the road at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Boston College. Virginia Tech comes in averaging over 90 points per game on 51 percent shooting in their last five games, and they have hit 42.9 percent from beyond the arc during that span. N.C. State has only covered the spread once in it's last six games versus ACC teams.

Take VT.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Canisius Golden Griffins.

The Golden Griffins have won five straight, and their last game was an outright road win at St. Bonaventure. They host Sienna this afternoon, and the Saints have lost four of their last five. Sienna is 0-8 on the road this season, and they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight versus the Golden Griffins. Canisius has averaged over 90 points per game on 48.5 percent shooting during their recent winning streak, and they have been red hot from beyond the arc. They've hit 45.9 percent from three point range in their last five games, and have hit better than 40 percent for the season. The Saints were just 3-of-18 from beyond the arc in a home loss to Vermont in their last game. Leading scorer Nico Clareth had a horrible game, hitting just 1-of-6 from beyond the arc.

Take CAN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8*

This is an 8* play on the Canisius Golden Griffins.

The Bonnies have always been a strong home team, but perhaps they've lost a step this season. They have failed to cover in eight straight as a home favorite, and they are being asked to cover a double-digit spread here versus a strong team that has given them trouble in the past. Canisius has covered the spread in five straight road games, and three of the last four meetings between these two teams have been decided by six points or less. The Bonnies followed up a home loss to UNC Wilmington by beating Niagra and Army. Neither of those wins came by more than 10 points, and I don't think either of those teams are as competitive as Canisius. The underdog has covered the spread in five of the last seven in this series, and that's a trend that is likely to continue tonight.

Take CAN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Clemson Tigers.

The Mercer Bears have been struggling this season, and playing on the road at Clemson is going to be tough. The Tigers are 4-0 at home, and three of those four wins came by double digits. Their defense has been spectacular in those games, holding opponents to an average of 59.8 points on 39.8 percent shooting. The Bears haven't been competitive when facing top tier teams, losing by 20+ points to Florida and Davidson. They are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 overall, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Mercer sits in the bottom half of the Southern Conference standings, and Clemson has covered in five straight versus teams from the Southern. This looks like a complete mismatch, and I like Clemson to win big here at home.

Take CLEM.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Gonzaga comes into LA undefeated, winning seven straight games to start the season. This game against Arizona is a revenge spot for the Bulldogs, who have lost three straight, and six of the last seven in this series. Things could be different this time around, as Gonzaga is averaging 85.6 points per game on 48.9 percent shooting. They have shot slightly better than Arizona from beyond the arc (38.7 percent), but their biggest advantage may be on the boards. The Bulldogs are averaging 39.1 rebounds per game, and they pulled in a whopping 45 boards in their last game, a 97-63 win over MVSU. Arizona has a win over #12 ranked Michigan State, which doesn't look quite as impressive after the Spartans dropped out of the Top 25 with four losses. They also lost to unranked Butler by a score of 69-65. Arizona will be shorthanded here, without starting PG Peter Jackson-Cartwright, and G Allonzo Trier. The Bulldogs can smell blood: "We feel like we owe them some payback. It's been some years building up. Saturday's a time for us to get back at them."

Take GONZ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.

The Gaels look to remain undefeated when they face Stanford in a tough road game tonight. Stanford will be looking to avenge a 78-61 loss at St. Mary's last season. The Gaels led the nation in field goal percentage last year, and they come into tonight's game averaging 81.8 points per game on 52.8 percent shooting. Stanford will need to play it's best defense, because there is no way the Cardinal can match the Gaels in a shootout. St. Mary's has covered the spread in seven of their last eight versus PAC12 teams, while the Cardinal have covered the spread just once in their last six versus teams from the WCC. Stanford has also failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams with a winning record, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

Take SMC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.

The Dons are off to a 3-0 start, and they won their last game at home by a score of 79-67 over Troy. Senior guard Ronnie Boyce scored 25 points on 8-of-14 shooting in the victory, and he's averaging 28 points per game so far. The Dons play the Sacramento State Hornets tonight, and the Hornets are 1-3 with their only win coming against the Antelope Valley Pioneers. This looks like a tough spot for Sacramento State, as they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams from the WCC. Despite a soft schedule, the Hornets have only managed to hit 35.6 percent from the field, and 21.2 percent from beyond the arc. They've been clobbered on the boards, and have allowed opponents to average 84.7 points per game. Sacramento State has failed to cover in four of it's last five non-conference contests, and I don't like the Hornet's chances of hanging with the Dons.

Take SF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Nevada Wolfpack.

This Wolfpack team looks like a true contender in the Mountain West. Nevada absolutely crushed Oregon State on Friday, winning by a score of 83-58. The Wolfpack are 3-0 at home so far, with both of those wins coming by double digits. They were 11-3 at home last season, and won the CBI Tournament. Nevada returns four of five starters, including D.J Fenner and Cameron Oliver who each averaged over 13 points per game last year. Oliver scored a team high 24 against Oregon State, and he scored 22 points in a win over Iona on Sunday. They travel to Alaska to play the Oakland Grizzlies, who have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 neutral site games. Nevada is 8-1-1 ATS in it's last 10 non conference games, and they've dominated teams from smaller conferences the last two years. Oakland lost last year's leading scorer Kay Felder to the NBA draft, and it will be difficult to replace that productions as he average over 24 points per game last year.

Take NEV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. The Iona Gaels lost six players from last year's team that finished with a 22-11 record in second place in the MAAC. They were 0-4 on the road versus non-conference opponents last year, and they lost by 25 points at Valparaiso, and by 20 points at Oregon State. They have started this season in similar fashion, losing 99-78 at Florida State in their opener. It won't get any easier at Nevada, as this Wolfpack team looks like a true contender in the Mountain West. Nevada absolutely crushed Oregon State on Friday, winning by a score of 83-58. The Wolfpack are 2-0 at home so far, with both of those wins coming by double digits. They were 11-3 at home last season, and won the CBI Tournament. Nevada returns four of five starters, including D.J Fenner and Cameron Oliver who each averaged over 13 points per game last year. Oliver scored a team high 24 against Oregon State, and he should be primed for a big night versus Iona.

Take NEV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Utah.

The Utah Utes have played twice this season, winning both games by 40+ points. They are a huge favorite at home tonight against Coppin State, but I don't think 26 points is a big enough number all things considered. The Eagles are playing a rare third game in three nights, and fourth game in five nights. They are coming off back to back 30+ point losses at BYU and Coastal Carolina. Last night in Provo they shot just 25.9 percent from the field, and made just 50% of their free throws. They've given up an average of more than 80 points per game, and this Utah team is as good as anybody they have faced so far. The Utes are well rested, and this looks like it should be a complete mismatch. Utah ranks 3rd nationally averaging 56 rebounds per game, and they have held opponents to an average of 45 points during their 2-0 start. The home team should win this game by 30+ points.

Take UTAH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on North Carolina. 

The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send five teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those five teams will be a favorite in their next game, and one of those is the Tar Heels who play Indiana on Friday. 

The Hoosiers showed a lot of grit beating Kentucky, but they could be due for a let down here against a tougher opponent. It will be an even tougher task if sophomore guard Robert Johnson isn't healthy. Johnson left the last game with an ankle injury, and it looked pretty ugly. Early reports suggest that he's going to try to play through the pain, but this has been a lingering injury that caused him to sit out of the BIG10 Tournament, and Indiana got knocked out in the first round by Michigan. 

The Tar Heels physically dominated Providence, out-rebounding the Friars 42-24. They shot 52.5 percent from the field, and scored 19 of their 85 points at the free throw line. North Carolina is significantly better from the charity stripe, hitting 78.9 percent over it's last five games, and hitting 77.8 percent at neutral sites this year. If Indiana commits fouls, the Tar Heels will make them pay. 

Take UNC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavs (GOW). 

The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send five teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those five teams will be a favorite in their next game. I think the strongest of the five might be the Virginia Cavs, and I bet on Virginia in their last game against Butler.  

Here is what I had to say before the game: "The Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the country, coming off a blowout win over the Hampton Pirates in the first round of the tournament. They finished second in the ACC behind North Carolina with a record of 13-5, and they lost a close game by a score of 61-57 to UNC in the ACC Championship Game. They had won five in a row prior to that, and one of those was a home win over North Carolina by a score of 79-74." 

Virginia will face Iowa State in Chicago on Friday, and the Cyclones did not finish the season strong at all. They lost their last five games away from home to Texas Tech, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and Oklahoma. They had a pretty soft start to the tournament, with wins over 13th seeded Iona, and 12th seeded Arkansas Little Rock. One of the biggest weaknesses for Iowa State is a lack of depth, as they really don't get much production from their bench. While it didn't hurt them against lesser opponents, it's very likely that it will be a factor against the best defensive team remaining in the tournament. The Cavs have allowed opponents to average just 58.2 points per game, while winning eight of nine games at neutral sites. 

Take UVA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send six teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those teams will be a favorite in their next game. The defending champions Duke will actually be getting points against the Pac12 champs Oregon, and I strongly disagree with the line here. 

In my opinion people are failing to account for the fact that Duke had a much tougher schedule, playing the likes of Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina. Oregon's wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona and California pale in comparison. Duke lost 10 games during the season, but seven of those 10 losses came in games decided by five points or less. They lost by two versus Syracuse and losses to Notre Dame and North Carolina came by just four points. 

One game in particular stands out, and some might see their 77-75 loss to the Utes as evidence that they could struggle against an even better team from the Pac12. I think they've grown as a team since then, and it's also important to remember that Grayson Allen only scored seven points in that game while playing through flu-like symptoms. 

Allen has stepped up his game in the tournament, much like he did last year in the championship game versus Wisconsin. Duke has the highest winning percentage in NCAA Tournament history, and you have to give plenty of credit to Coach K. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last eight tournament games, and they look good as a dog to an Oregon team that has failed to cover in four straight versus the ACC. 

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. 

The Musketeers finished just behind Villanova in the Big East, and they split the season series with the Wildcats, winning the most recent meeting at home by a score of 90-83. They are a well balanced team that can do it all, on offense, defense, on the boards and boy can they score. This should give them a massive edge against a Wisconsin team that struggles to score points. The Badgers just don't have the shooters they had last year, and often they have a tough time putting the biscuit in the basket. Xavier has averaged 84.6 points per game over it's last five, while the Badgers have scored just 63 points on 40.1 percent shooting during that span. Xavier also owns the boards, averaging just short of 40 rebounds per game in it's neutral site games, and 37.2 rebounds per game over it's last five. Superior free throw shooting, three point shooting, scoring and rebounding should prove to be far too much for a Badgers team that has scored 60 points per game on 36.2 percent shooting while going 2-2 at neutral sites this season. Xavier is 13-3 in it's last 16 versus the Big10, and the Musketeers won their last game against Wisconsin by a score of 60-49. 

Take XAV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.

The Yale Bulldogs played about as well as they can possibly play in their opening round win over Baylor, but I think they'll be in way over their heads against Duke on Saturday. We saw Duke handle a bit of adversity overcoming a halftime deficit to beat UNC Wilmington by eight points in their first game, and the Blue Devils are a short favorite here versus Yale.

These teams played early in the season, and Duke won that game 80-61. This Blue Devils team has the highest winning percentage in NCAA Tournament history. They have covered the spread in five straight versus the Ivy League, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tourney games.

After a slow start against the Seahawks, Marshall Plumlee opted to discard his protective mask, playing with a broken nose fully exposed. He took over down low, scoring 23 points on 9-of-10 shooting. Grayson Allen didn't have a great night shooting, but he scored the majority of his 23 points at the free throw line, going 15-of-17. In the end, Duke just had too much firepower for the Seahawks, and I expect it to be the same story here against Yale.

Take DUKE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the VCU Rams. 

The Oregon State Beavers somehow found their way into the NCAA Tournament, much to the dismay of St. Mary's, Valparaiso and a handful of other more deserving teams. Their tournament run is likely to come to an end pretty quickly though, facing VCU in the first round. The Beavers finished in the middle of the pack in the Pac12, with a 10-10 conference record. They were not a great team away from home, going 4-7 on the road, scoring an average of 68.7 points on 43.3 percent shooting in those games. 

VCU won seven of it's last 10 overall, and six of those seven wins came by a double digit margin. They finished tied with Dayton and St. Bonaventure at the top of the A-10 with a 14-4 record. Unlike the Beavers, the Rams had no trouble winning on the road, with a record of 7-4. The Rams should have a big edge in both free throw shooting as well as rebounding, and it's tough to beat teams that hit their free throws and win the battle on the boards. 

Oregon State will really miss forward Trey Tinkle, who is one of the team's top scorers: "He's doubtful," Wayne Tinkle said. "The timing of his injury is very unfortunate. He was having an incredible freshman season for us. We'll miss his toughness and playmaking ability for sure."

Take VCU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears.

We've seen Harvard come out of the Ivy League and shake things up when playing teams from the bigger conferences in the NCAA Tournament. I don't expect this Yale team to compete at that level though, not against a high scoring Baylor team that has been battling it out with the Big Boys of the Big12. Keep in mind that three of the nation's Top 10 teams come from this conference (#1 Kansas, #7 Oklahoma and #8 West Virginia).

The Bears last game was a 70-66 loss to #1 ranked Kansas in the Big12 tournament. They had previously beat Texas by double-digits, and I think it's not asking to much of Baylor to beat the Ivy League champs just as easily. Yale doesn't match up well against Baylor's size, with senior forward Justin Sears their tallest starter at 6"8. The Bulldogs have held their own, out-rebounding Ivy League teams by a a double digit margin. It's likely to be a different story against a Baylor team that ranks 15th nationally in rebound margin.

Baylor went out early last year, but I don't think they'll let this game get away. They should be able to dominate against an overrated Yale team that faced just one ranked team this season, losing to Duke by 19 points.

Take BAY.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.

Texas A&M crushed LSU in the SEC Semi Final yesterday, winning by a whopping 33 points. The Tigers set a new mark for futility, as their 38 total points was the fewest scored by a Power 5 team this season. While it was an impressive performance by Texas A&M, beating up on an a vulnerable LSU team is perhaps not the best way to warmup for a clash with the Wildcats.

Kentucky started slow this season, but they come into this game playing as well as anyone. The Wildcats have won five of their last six, with those wins come by an average margin of over 17 points. They shot out the lights against Georgia yesterday, battling back after trailing 49-44 at halftime. They shot 50 percent from the field, and 26-of-30 from the free throw line in the win.

The Aggies shot just 56.3 percent from the foul line in their win over LSU. This looks like the type of game that could be decided at the free throw line, and that should favor the Wildcats.

Kentucky comes in red hot, shooting better than 50 percent from the field over it's last five games, and better than 45 percent from beyond the arc. I think the Aggies are going to struggle as they step up in class after their easy win yesterday. They've failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 coming off a win of more than 20 points.

Take UK.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas crushed BIG12 rivals Kansas State on Thursday, and they are the team to beat, ranked #1 in the country. They take on the inconsistent Baylor Bears tonight, and I think the price to back the Jayhawks is more than reasonable. Kansas comes in as winners of 12 straight, and they covered the spread in 10 of those 12 games. They swept the season series with Baylor, and they've won and covered in seven straight against the Bears since 2013.

The Bears finished the season as losers of three of their last four games before beating Texas yesterday. They lost 66-60 at home to Kansas during the regular season, and they shot just 36.1 percent from the field in that game. Kansas has plenty of experience playing neutral site games this season, winning five of six. They scored an average of 80.4 points on 48.6 percent shooting in those games. Opponents have averaged just 63 points on 36.7 percent shooting in the Jayhawks last five games.

Take KAN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Gonzaga struggled early in the season with an inexperienced back court, but the Bulldogs still finished tied with the St. Mary's with a 15-3 record in the WCC, and a 24-7 overall record. Their size and skill up front is tough for opponents to deal with, and their young guards now have bit more experience under their belts. The BYU Cougars upset the Bulldogs earlier in the year, but Gonzaga got revenge with a 71-68 at Salt Lake City on Saturday. The two teams will meet in Las Vegas in the conference tourney tonight, and I expect to see a similar result to the last meeting. BYU couldn't get anything going against Gonzaga's defense, shooing just 22-of-67 (32.8 %) from he field. The Bulldogs come in as the hotter team, covering the spread in four of their last five. They have been very good at the free throw line during that span, hitting 78 percent. The Cougars have failed to cover in three of their last five, and are shooting just 67.5 percent from the charity stripe. Free throw shooting could be a big factor in tonight's game, and that may not bode well for BYU.

Take GONZ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.

The Huskies have quietly been making bettors a fortune at home, going 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 home games. They host the Western Michigan Broncos in a MAC Tournament game tonight, and they already beat the Broncos 76-67 just over a week ago. The Broncos have only won two road games all year long, with a dismal 2-11 road record. While there's nothing easy about handicapping college hoops, I think this is a case of the obvious choice being the best choice. 

Take NIU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavs.

The situational handicappers will be licking their chops tonight, lining up to bet on the Cardinals in this revenge game against Virginia. The Cavs trounced the Cardinals in Louisville back in January, handing them their worst loss of the season.

I've written extensively about "situational handicapping" throughout my career, and I consider it to be one of the most overrated strategies that a sports handicapper can focus on. I do take note of "revenge spots" such as we see in tonight's game, but unless there are several other key factors that line up in favor of the team seeking revenge, I wouldn't want to bet on that team to do what it failed to do in the previous meeting.

There's no reason to think that "revenge" will trump the effort of a Virginia team playing it's final home game before gearing up for the playoffs. Louisville on the other hand is serving a self imposed ban this post-season, so doesn't have anything left to play for. The Cardinals are just 4-6 on the road while Virginia is 14-0 at home.

Louisville has failed to cover in eight of it's last nine road games, and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record. The Cavs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning straight up record.

Take UVA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Princeton Tigers.

The Harvard Crimson have dominated the Ivy League in recent seasons, but they have been brutal in 2016. Harvard has lost eight of 12 games in conference play, and they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 overall. Harvard has been burying bettors, going 7-21 ATS in their last 28 versus the Ivy League.

They've lost three of their last four home games, including a double digit loss to Yale. Princeton trails Yale by just a half a game in the Ivy League standings, with a 10-1 conference record. The Tigers beat Harvard at home by a whopping 21 points earlier this season, and they should win tonight's game by a wide margin. Princeton has covered the spread in five of it's last seven at Harvard, and four straight on the road.

Take PRIN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the BIG10's bottom feeders, with a conference record of 2-14. They have a losing home record, and they have suffered double digit home losses at the hands of Michigan and Northwestern, and they are coming off a 13 point loss on the road at Illinois.

Normally you would expect a pretty strong effort from an underdog like Minnesota in it's final home game, but with three of it's top players suspended for the remainder of the season, maybe not. The Gophers might just fold like a cheap suite here without leading scorer Nate Mason, who had 31 points in the team's only two wins in conference play. Wisconsin has won four straight in this series, and three of those wins came by double digits. They won in Minnesota last year by a score of 76-63.

Take WISC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies.

The Bonnies will host St. Joes on Wednesday, and it's senior night at St. Bonaventure. History certainly favors the Bonnies, who have won four straight meetings, including a double digit win at St. Joe's earlier this year. The Red Hawks are currently in first place in the A-10, but a home win for the Bonnies would move them into a tie with St. Joe's.

St. Bonaventure has won eight of it's last nine overall, and the one loss came on the road at La Salle. They have scored an average of 82.2 points on 49.3 percent shooting over their last five games, and they are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Take SBON.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers.

It's Senior's Night at Clemson, and the Tigers will be all fired up as they get set to host the Virginia Cavs. As well as Virginia has played of late, the fact is that they are just 4-6 on the road. I don't think the Cavs have any business being a sizable favorite on the road tonight, where Clemson has won seven of it's last eight. The Tigers covered the spread in six of those games, and even when they lose they don't lose by much. Three of their last four losses came in games decided by three points or less. This game appears to be destined to be a close, low scoring affair, and the home dog looks like a bargain

Take CLEM.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

Duke has won six of it's last seven overall, and two of those wins came on the road. Most recently they upset the North Carolina Tar Heels at Chapel Hill by a score of 74-73. They are on the road Sunday, facing a Pittsburgh team that has lost four of it's last six. Two of those losses came at home, most recently a 67-60 loss to Louisville on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has yet to beat a Top 25 team, and leading scorer Michael Young has struggled averaging just 12.7 points over his last six games. Duke appears to be playing it's best basketball heading into the tournament, and the same can not be said for Pitt. The Panthers are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games.

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. 

The #5 ranked Musketeers have won four straight, and nine of their last 10. They are 25-3 overall, and they are coming off a massive win over the Big East leaders Villanova. They face a Seton Hall team that also has an impressive resume, with a 12-3 home record, and a 10-5 record in the Big East. Not a single one of those victories came against an opponent like Xavier though, and the Pirates three losses at home are more than Xavier's two on the road. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and they are more points and shooting for a higher percentage on the road than Seton Hall is at home. Xavier is hitting 76.3 percent from the free throw line on the road, while the Pirates have hit just 64 percent at home. This is the kind of game that could easily be decided at the free throw line, and if that's the case the edge goes to the visitors. 

Take XAV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.

Xavier is 24-3 overall, and one of those three losses came on the road at Villanova. They get a chance to execute a little revenge here at home tonight, and they looked pretty good in a win at Georgetown over the weekend. The Hoyas were one of just three teams to beat Xavier this year, and the Musketeers punished them in the rematch winning 88-70.

The loss at Villanova was particularly tough, with Edmond Sumner getting carted off on a stretcher in the opening minutes. The Freshman guard is back, and firing on all cylinders, scoring 22 points on 6-of-9 shooting in the win at Georgetown.

Villanova has won seven straight, but has only covered the spread in three of it's last seven. The Wildcats have been cruising through the weaker teams in the Big East, but this is by far their toughest test to date.

The Musketeers are 13-1 overall at home, scoring 83.2 points and shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc in those games. The Wildcats stats on the road are nowhere near what they are at home, and they face a Musketeers team that is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games versus teams with a winning road record.

Take XAV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Miami Hurricanes. 

The Virginia Cavs are getting plenty of respect from bookmakers, as they aren't getting much of a spread on the road at Miami Monday. The Cavs have played well of late, and most people think they are the better team here. That might be true at a neutral site, but I expect the Canes to prove to be the better team on their home floor. Miami is 13-1 at home, and tied with Virginia in second place in the ACC with a 10-4 record within the conference. 

While the Cavs have some impressive road wins (at Louisville and Pittsburgh), they lost their last road game at Duke, and are just 4-5 away from home on the season. Miami has won all it's home games against ACC teams, including impressive wins over Duke and Notre Dame by a combined 20 points. The Canes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, and they have won three of their last four home games against Virginia. The one loss came in overtime last season. 

The Cavs are one of the top defensive teams in the country, but Miami can play defense as well. In fact, the Canes are allowing fewer points per game at home (62.9) that the Cavs are on the road (63.2). Miami also scores an average of 76.8 points on 48.2 percent shooting at home, more than 10 points better than the Cavs score on the road. 

Take MIA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.  Gonzaga sits in first place in the West Coast Conference, one game ahead of St. Mary's with a 13-2 conference record. Both teams have 21 wins overall, but the Gaels have two fewer losses. This Gonzaga team has continued to beat up on weak opposition in the conference, but when they've faced tougher opponents they've failed miserably. That was on full display last Saturday when they lost 69-60 at SMU.  They've lost to BYU, UCLA, Arizona, Texas A&M and at St. Mary's earlier this year. The Gaels lead the nation in field goal percentage (.509), and they are ranked 5th in three-point percentage (.421). They shot 50 percent from the field in the win over Gonzaga earlier this year, and I think they'll keep this game close tonight.  The Bulldogs are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record, and they are asked to cover a big number in tonight's game. The Gaels have covered the spread in six of their last eight against teams above .500. They've also won five of eight straight up on the road.  Take SMC.  GL,  Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. 

After losing 14 straight overall, you might think that his Minnesota team would throw in the towel. Not this team! Not this coach! 

The Gophers and head coach Richard Pitino continue to play hard, and they appear to be determined to get that elusive first conference win. Tonight's home game against Maryland will be as good a chance as any for them to do just that. The Terps are 22-4 overall, but they haven't been a good bet as a double digit favorite. 

Maryland has failed to cover in four straight versus teams with a winning percentage of less that .400. They have won three of their last five road games, but not one of those games were decided by double digits. 

Diamond Stone is Maryland's second leading scorer, and he will be serving a suspension for an incident versus Wisconsin last week. The Gophers lost by just four points against Iowa on Sunday, and seven of their last eight losses have come by eight points or less. 

Take MIN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

The Oklahoma Sooners reign at the top of the polls has come to an end, but they are still one of the best teams in the country. That doesn't mean they have been a good bet, especially as a road favorite. Oklahoma has failed to cover in four of it's last five road games, and 15 of it's last 20 BIG12 games. The Red Raiders have won three of their last four, with big wins over Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Baylor. 

This is a big revenge spot for the Red Raiders, who suffered their worst defeat of the season at Oklahoma last month. These teams have a history of playing hard fought battles here in Lubbock, and last year the Sooners won in overtime by a score of 79-75. Buddy Hield has cooled off, hitting just 12-of-33 shot attempts in the Sooners last two games. He scored just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting in the Sooners last visit to Texas Tech. 

Take TTU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. 

The Louisville Cardinals are one of the top teams in the ACC, but they will NOT be playing in this year's tournament. While they boast an impressive record, they haven't been a great bet, failing to cover in 10 of their last 14 overall. They've lost back to back games at Duke and Notre Dame, and I think they are asked to cover way too many points at home to Syracuse tonight. 

Here is what I said about Louisville before they played Clemson on January 10: "I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams."

They went on to beat Clemson, but failed to cover. The Cardinals will be a missing key big man Anas Mahmoud who is out for the season with an ankle injury. Clemson has covered the spread in four straight on the road, and they should be able to stay close here at Louisville. 

Take SYR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Notre Dame Irish. 

Notre Dame comes into tonight's home game against Louisville as winners of three of it's last four. It's last home game was an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Irish have also beaten Duke on the road, and they are 11-5-1 in their last 17 versus the ACC. They are 12-1 at home, and they've covered the spread in four of their last five at South Bend. The Cardinals have not been a good bet on the road, failing to cover in six straight. The Irish are scoring over 80 points per game at home, and they are shooting 76.2 percent from the field at South Bend. Louisville is struggling at the free throw line this season, and the Cardinals have trouble scoring at the best of times. 

Take ND. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers. 

The Tigers are hot, coming into Saturday's home game against Texas A&M as winners of four of their last five at home. The one loss came by just two points to #1 ranked Oklahoma in a non-conference game (SEC/BIG12 Challenge). The Aggies are coming off three straight losses, and they have struggled on the road with a record of just 3-4. Home court has been a big deal in this series, with the home team covering in eight of the last 10. LSU is 12-2 overall at home, while the Aggies have only covered once in their last seven on the road. Ben Simmons gets better with every game, and the Freshman will be looking to execute a little revenge after having one of his worst games in a loss at Texas A&M earlier in the year. Despite their struggles away from home, and the fact that they've failed to cover in five straight SEC games, the Aggies aren't getting any sort of a cushion here in today's game. 

Take LSU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* pay on the Dayton Flyers. 

The Flyers are sitting in the top spot in the A-10 with a conference record of 10-1. They will be just a slight favorite on the road tonight, facing a Rams team that has a 6-5 record within the conference. Perhaps this line is a little lower than one might expect, and that's likely influenced by the fact that Dayton hasn't won at Rhode Island since 2005. The Rams also have a respectable home record of 11-3. They did come up short in a home loss to St. Joes though, and all of their home wins within the conference so far have come against teams with a losing record. They've also lost three straight in this series versus Dayton, and the last two were blowouts. 

Dayton is 5-1 on the road, and the Flyers come in riding an eight game win streak. It's not as though they don't have anything to play for, as a loss here would open the door for VCU and St. Joe's who are tied for second, each with a 9-2 record. The Rams have lost two of their last three, and starting forward Kuran Iverson has missed all three games with a concussion. He's averaging over 10 points per game, and if he can't go tonight it would be a big blow for the home team. The Flyers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Take DAY. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bulls. 

The Bulls have won four straight, and six of their last seven overall. They have won eight of 10 at home, and they have the second best record in the MAC. They host Toledo Tuesday, and the Rockets have lost three of their last five. One of those losses came at home to Buffalo, with the Bulls jumping out to a 10-point lead in the first half, and hanging on to win 73-68. The Bulls have won four of their last five home meetings versus Toledo, and they have covered the spread in five of the last six overall meetings between the two teams. Buffalo has superior depth, and their bench outscored Toledo's bench 28-17 in the last meeting. The Bulls should also have an advantage on the boards, averaging 36.3 rebounds per game at home. 

Take BUF. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

Defending champions Duke have lost a few key home games already in conference play, and because of that they are just a short favorite at home to Louisville tonight. Duke is coming off a couple wins in a row, beating Georgia Tech and N.C. State by a combined 17 points. The Cardinal are just 3-3 on the road, and they might not have their leading scorer healthy tonight. Damion Lee missed the last game with a knee injury, but he could return here against Duke. Given that Louisville will be serving a self imposed post-season ban, there really is no reason for players to push it if they are anything less than 100%. 

Duke has won seven straight at home versus ranked opponents, and Duke is 179-12 (.937) at home since the 2004-5 season, second only to Kansas in winning percentage at home. The come in shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, going 25-of-51 from three-point range in their last two games. They have shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc at home this season, and score over 90 points per game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The Cyclones have lost back to back games, but still they are a road favorite at Oklahoma State here today. The Cowboys may not have a lot of wins on their resume in conference play, but they have certainly been competitive. While they have lost five of seven in conference play, three of those five losses came in games decided by five points or less. These teams have met four times since 2013, and all four of those games were decided by less than five points. Two of those four games required overtime to decide a winner. The Cyclones come in short-handed, with reigning BIG12 player of the year Jameel McKay suspended indefinitely: "I don't feel like I'm getting as high as I would normally," McKay said. "With what's going on with me, you've just got to kind of block it out and remember that it'll get better. ... It's not 100 percent. But it's getting better."

Take OKST.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks.

The Florida Gators have won four of their last five, but I think they are asked to cover a few too many points at home to SEC rivals Arkansas tonight. The Razorbacks are coming off back to back wins over Texas Tech and Texas A&M. They did lose their last two road games, but by a combined margin of just five points at LSU and Georgia. They've covered the spread in six of their last eight overall, and three of their last four versus Florida. Arkansas scores a ton of points, averaging 81.6 per game. They are a better free throw shooting team that Florida, hitting 71.1 percent from the line. The last two meetings between these teams went right down to the wire, with Florida winning both games by a combined three points. The underdog has covered in four straight in this series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five.

Take ARK.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies. 

The Huskies will put their perfect home record to the test once again tonight when they host MAC rivals Buffalo. The Bulls have really struggled on the road, losing seven of 10 this season. The Huskies are one of the better three-point shooting teams in the MAC, hitting 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. They are also dominant on the boards, averaging 37.7 rebounds per game at home. The Huskies are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games, and they've covered the spread in six of their last seven versus teams with a winning record. They are 26-10-4 ATS in their last 40 versus conference rivals. They also have a dominant defense, holding opponents to just 64.3 points on 39.3 percent shooting at home. They only gave up 49 points in a 58-49 win over Toledo in their last home game. 

Take NIU. 

GL, Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears. 

The Texan Longhorns are coming off back to back home wins, and they've won five of their last six overall. They face a daunting task on the road tonight at Baylor though, as the Bears are 14-1 at home, and that one loss came at the hands of #1 ranked Oklahoma. Baylor scores an average of 81.7 points on 48.9 percent shooting at home, and they also average 37 rebounds per game. They should be able to dominate on the boards tonight, as Texas is averaging just 28.8 rebounds per game on the road. They are still without starting center and leading rebounder Cameron Ridley, who hasn't played since mid December. Texas lost at Baylor by 23 points last year, and it's dropped three of it's last four away from home. All four of Baylor's home wins against BIG12 teams have come by at least seven points. 

Take BAY. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes. 

Maryland has been one of the more overrated teams in the country this season, and I think they are being asked to cover a few too many points on the road at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won back to back games, and seven straight at home. One of those wins was a 74-67 upset over the #4 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. The Terrapins have lost their last two road games at Michigan State and Michigan, and they have lost their last two trips to Columbus. The Buckeyes are cleaning up on the board, averaging 38 rebounds per game at home. They out-rebounded the Illini 51-34 in their last game, and I expect them to own the glass tonight against a Maryland team that has only averaged 32 rebounds per game on the road. Ohio State is 8-2-1 ATS in it's last 11 home games. 

Take OSU.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off an 84-67 home win over Santa Clara, but the Broncos are one of the worst teams in the WCC. This year's Bulldogs team hasn't been nearly as dominant as it has been in previous years. They've already suffered three home losses versus Arizona, UCLA and BYU. They are asked to cover an enormous number here against a San Francisco team that is one of the highest scoring teams in the conference. The Dons played them tough in San Francisco earlier in the year, blowing a big lead late, and then losing in overtime. The Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and they have been terrible against the spread this season. They are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Don's have covered the spread in seven of their last nine overall, and six of their last eight as a road underdog.

Take SF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas will host Kentucky in the BIG12/SEC Challenge on Saturday night, and the Wildcats have really looked vulnerable on the road. The Jayhawks on the other hand are 10-0 at home, and that includes a win over #1 ranked Oklahoma. Kentucky has lost at UCLA, LSU and Ohio State. The Wildcats have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 road games, and it doesn't get any tougher than this. Kansas has won and covered four straight non-conference games, while the Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. The competition in the BIG12 this year appears to be a cut above what the Wildcats have seen in the SEC. Kansas has won 34 straight at Allen Fieldhouse, and I expect that streak to continue here tonight.

Take KU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Eastern Washington Eagles.

Last year's Big Sky champions have failed to impress this year, with a 10-10 overall record and just 4-4 within the conference. The Eagles have been dominant at home though, winning all seven of their games in Washington. The majority of those game were blowouts, such as Thursday's 112-83 shellacking of Portland State. Eastern Washington is averaging and incredible 92 points on 55.9 percent shooting at home. Sacramento State comes in as losers of five of it's last seven, and the Hornets are just 3-6 on the road. Starting guard Cody Demps has missed the last five games for the Hornets with a quadriceps injury, and he's questionable to play tonight. The Hornets have failed to cover in seven of their last nine versus the Big Sky.

Take EWU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Louisville Cardinals.

The Virginia Cavaliers have been a powerhouse in the ACC in recent years, but they've really struggled this season. They've dropped four of six on the road, and even though they managed to eke out a win at Wake Forest on Tuesday, they trailed by seven points with just 28 seconds remaining in that game. They connected with a trio of three-pointers in the final 14 seconds, including the winner at he buzzer. This should put them in a position for a big let down as they are in a much tougher spot at Louisville Saturday. The Cardinal are sitting in second in the ACC with a record of 6-1 in conference play. They are 13-0 at home, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last 10. Louisville should have an enormous advantage on the glass, coming in averaging more than 39 rebounds per game (10 more than the Cavs). They are lighting up the scoreboard at home, averaging 84.4 points on 51 percent shooting so far. The Cavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.

Take LOU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.

Syracuse crushed Notre Dame at home on Thursday night, and I cashed in a winner in that game. Here is what I said before tip off: "The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals." The Orange have also been red hot from beyond the arc, shooting 40 percent from three point range over their last five games. They made 10 three-pointers in the win over the Irish. Georgia Tech is coming off a road win at North Carolina State, but had dropped three straight prior to that. After watching the Orange completely dismantle Notre Dame on Thursday, it's hard to imagine that the Yellow Jackets will have much of a chance here on Saturday.

Take SYR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. 

The Notre Dame Irish are coming into Syracuse as winners of four straight, and that includes a 95-91 upset win at Duke. They haven't had much success in previous meetings with Syracuse, losing six of the last seven meetings and four straight at the Carrier Dome. It's not going to be easy to avoid another loss tonight, with leading scorer Demetrius Jackson sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals. That's of particular concern for the Irish, who will rely on junior guard Steve Vasturia to take over ball handling duties with Jackson injured. Notre Dame is 1-4-1 ATS in it's last six games versus teams with a winning record. 

Take SYR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies. 

Virginia Tech has lost back to back games, but both of those were close. Their last game was a 75-70 loss to North Carolina at home, and before that they lost at Notre Dame by a score of 83-81. They are getting a bunch of points at home tonight versus Louisville, and the Cardinals haven't been all that formidable on the road. They lost at Clemson, and wins at Georgia Tech and N.C. State came by a combined nine points. Louisville has struggled to score points on the road, averaging just 70.8 points on 43 percent shooting. The Hokies are averaging over 78 points per game at home, and they've allowed the opposition to average just 67.7. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, and they've failed to cover in six of their last eight overall. The Hokies have covered the spread in four straight at home, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Take VT. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Indiana Hoosiers are 7-0 in conference play, and their stock is on the rise. I think the #19 ranked Hoosiers are a little overrated coming into Wisconsin as a favorite. They just barely escaped with a 59-58 win at home when the two teams played earlier this season. Wisconsin has suffered a few losses at home, but they looked pretty tough in a 63-60 loss to Maryland. Melo Trimble hit a buzzer beater to break the Badgers hearts in that game. The Badgers most recent home game was an upset win over Michigan State, led by Bronson Koenig's 27 point performance. The Hoosiers have really struggled against Wisconsin, going 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and losing five straight in Madison.

Take WISC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 4-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last six overall, and all three wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. They snuck by Syracuse at home on the weekend, and now they are asked to cover a big number on the road at Wake Forest. The Cavs only have one win in five games on the road this season, and that was at Ohio State in December. They won that game 64-58, less than the margin they are asked to cover tonight. Virginia has since lost at Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. Not exacty powerhouse teams. Four of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by five points or less, and Virginia is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

Take WAKE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

We don't often see Duke as an underdog, but after sufferring three straight losses in conference play, the Blue Devils stock is low. All three of those losses came in close games against hot teams, and they turned things around with a double digit win on the road at N.C. State in their last game. Miami has an impressive record, but there's no denying that the Hurricanes have had a much softer schedule. Home court hasn't been much of an advantage in recent meetings between these two schools, as the home team is 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10. The Canes upset Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium last season, which sets up a nice revenge play here in Miami.

Take DUKE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. 

The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 3-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last five overall, and both wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. Still they are asked to win by double digits at home to Syracuse, a team that's coming off big road wins over Wake Forest and Duke. The Orange got off to a slow start, but that's understandable as they were missing head coach Jim Boeheim. Since his return they have turned things around winning three of four, but they can't afford to too many more losses if they want to keep post-season aspirations alive. The Orange have really turned up the heat on defense, allowing just 63 points per game over their last five. That's slightly less than Virginia has surrendered during the same span. "Our rebounding has been better and our defense has been better and those are two things you have to do, especially defense," said Boeheim. 

Take SYR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars. 

The #16 ranked Providence Friars will be a big underdog at Villanova on Sunday, getting a double digit cushion. Providence hasn't had any trouble winning on the road, with a 4-0 record this year. Dating back to last season, they've covered the spread in eight straight on the road. They also have a history of playing close games against division rivals Villanova, as three of their last four versus the Wildcats have been decided by six points or less. The last meeting was a 63-61 home win for the Wildcats, who failed to cover as an 8.5 point favorite. Villanova is 7-0 in the Big East, and 10-0 at home. The Wildcats have been tested though, wins over Georgetown, Butler and Seton Hall all coming by a single digit margin. Providence has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 in this series, and the road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. 

Take PROV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule