Minnesota's QB Cousins is ranked fifth in the league in passing,  and has 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season. His 71.2 completion percentage is third in the league and he's 10th in passer rating at 102.7. I'm betting he and his Vikings do some extensive damage today vs a NY Jets Defence, that allowed 428 yards off offence in a 42-34 loss to the Colts last week. Meanwhile, the Jets behind the capable arm of former USC QB Darnold and a two pronged running attack of running backs Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell, who are helping the Jets churn out an average of 130.5 yards rushing will respond in kind and not be easily slowed down. With that said, I expect this total to be eclipsed. 

The Vikings are 7-0-1 OVER off a game as a favorite in which they threw at least 10 fewer passes than their season-to-date average which was the case in a 27-17 win vs Arizona last week. 

NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 51-19 OVER L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Wake Forest after an embarrassing loss to Clemson before their bye week, allowed 63 points and scored just 3 points in a ugly loss. Since that game a rallying call to tighten up their D, has been key to any conversations involving the Deacons, and today I expect they enter this tilt with an conservative mindset. Meanwhile,Florida State is always methodical in their approach to games, and will make sure this game is played on their terms. Look for both teams to push the ball a lot on the ground today via their rush games, and for the clock to get milked like a Hershey cow.Only one of Seminoles games has eclipsed this total this season, and Im betting the combined score will not breach this Total. Note: Wake Forest has not had a scoring TD since 2006 here in the land of the Seminoles.

FSU Taggart is 18-7 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score in those tilts ringing in at 52.5 ppg.

FLORIDA ST L/11 against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 44 ppg go on the board. WAKE FOREST L/22  in road games after a bye week have seen a combined average of 54.4 ppg go on the board.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (WAKE FOREST) - with a poor defense - allowing 400 or more total yards/game, after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 64-28 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 Northwestern in their last  three games away from home having to lay  nine points  or more to Big Ten opposition all-time,   have scored 59, 45, and 42 points respectively and I'm expecting another  high output today vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed two opponents to breach the 50 point plateau this season. Meanwhile, Im betting that Rutgers on their own home field are good for a couple of scores in a game I have pegged to go OVER the total.

NORTHWESTERN is 7-0 OVER in road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined 54.7 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (NORTHWESTERN) - terrible rushing team - averaging 2.75 or less rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game are 28-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Packers are a injury riddled group right now and Aaron Rodgers looks less than 100%  healthy ,but their defence is holding up well and have held their last two opponents to season low outputs.I expect they will continue to stand tall vs a Niners team with a  uncertain QB situation thanks to Jimmy G being out with an injury and top RB (Jerick McKinnon) out, and it must also be noted that eight offensive players were on the sideline during Thursday's practice due to injuries.

 Also an interesting trends run here indicates GB could be in a letdown situation  as they  have gone under 8 straight times after playing long time rivals Detroit who they faced last week. Meanwhile, SF despite of losing to Arizona thanks to 5 turnovers last week held the Arizona Cards to 220 yards of Total offence. The 49ers D, has not always looked cohesive this season, but considering how banged up the Packers are they  have a viable opportunity to make them selves look like respectable stoppers this Monday night. 

Look for two banged up offences to play fairly conservatively here this evening, and for this combined total to stay on the low side of the number.

NFL team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 26-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. The average posted total was 46 and the average combined score clicked in at 38.4 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The KC Chiefs and their young gunslinger QB Patrick Mahomes goes head to head with future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady this Sunday night in a prime time affair with a justifiably high total attached to it. Both teams can put points up in bunches and both have shown a reluctance or inability to play consistent defence. Last year KC came into New England and won a 42-27 battle, and if the Pats get up here you know they won't take the pedal of the metal , knowing how explosive the Chiefs can be, and also wanting to inflict some pain on their opponent in revenge mode. KC will respond in kind . Let the fireworks begin. OVER. 

New England has averaged 34,3 ppg at home this season. KC's offence  has averaged 35.7 ppg on the road and the D has give up 29.3 ppg.

NFL games with an exceptionally high Totals line of 58 or more points have gone 7-0-1 O/U since since the 2000 campaign . The highest total ever registered was 60 points back in 2004 where  KC and Oakland put 61 points on the board eclipsing the 60 point totals line. 

Play on the OVER 

The Titans style of play is a old school approach to the game and methodical in nature. They like to smash and crash their way to the promised land , while the Ravens like to run and gun and utilize their array of offensive weapons. Here today, Im betting the Titans will have no choice to open up against a team that can pile points upon a hurry. Both teams took part in low scoring affairs last week and will be itching to see their offences flow this week. Baltimore lost to Cleveland 12-9 and are 8-1 OVER after they score 10 points or less.TENNESSEE is 21-6 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points since 1992 which happened against Buffalo in a 13-12 loss last week and 7-1 OVER L/8 after the scored 13 or less points 

The L/3 games in this series have gone over with a combined average of 45 points per game going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 26-4 OVER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 30-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Redskins enter this game on short rest after their defence was exposed on Monday night vs the New Orleans Saints as they lost 43-19.  Meanwhile, the Panthers D, did not look much better in a 33-31 win vs the NY Giants last week and more importantly were out gained 432 to 350 yards. It must be noted that Washington is 12-0 OVER  on a natural surface  vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed more points and more than 345 yards of offense in their last game. The Panthers are 19-0 OVER since 1998 as a dog when the total is over 34 coming off a game that went over the total by at least 14 points.  

The Panthers feature the league's top-ranked ground game, averaging 154.0 yards per game which is a good omen for us cashing a OVER ticket as  the Redskins are 15-0 OVER vs a team that is averaging at least 28.5 rushes per game.

CAROLINA is 17-3 OVER L/20 in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.CAROLINA is 7-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 61.5 ppg. 

WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 56 ppg. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 13-4 OVER  in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 49 ppg scored.

NFL games are 18-0 OVER since the start of last season in non-divisional games that are lined within three of pickem between teams with the same winning percentage, as long as the host team is not on a five-plus game winning or losing streak.

NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 51-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

Arizona has not played aggressively this season, and have actually  been quite methodical in their approach and now tonight against a superior side in  an away game I expect for the Cards to very conservative again . I know some might think that Arizona will be suddenly aggressive aftertaste weeks win, but they  had only 220 total yards in the game and picked up  just  10 first downs in the victory, and will once again be in that frame of mind here. The Cardinals are 0-8 UNDER on the road coming off a win where they gained no more than 18 first downs  Minnesota after big revenge win vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last week 23-21 and will be a in letdown scenario this week and could be just going through the motions vs a side that Im sure their not the inspired to play against. Minnesota is 1-9 UNDER  as a home favourite of 8 points or more and have gone UNDER 9 straight times as a home favorite of more than a TD coming off a tilt where they covered. MINNESOTA is 6-0 UNDER L/ 6 in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

My projections estimate 55 or more points will go on the board this week, thus giving us value on this Totals number. This may not seem a lot of room for the average bettor but it is important to understand that from a long term perspective advantage betting is your best way to consistently beat the books over the long haul. 

INDIANA is 16-5 OVER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992 with a combined average 56.2 ppg going on the score board.INDIANA in its L/11 tilts against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.2 ppg get scored. 

Indiana is 11-0-1 OU off a game as a road dog that went over the total by more than seven points with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored which was the case vs Ohio State last week. 

 Iowa in their L/25 road games as favorite of 7 points or less have seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored.INDIANA is 41-17 OVER L/57 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 point with a combined average of 58.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

Georgia Southern new HC Chad Lunsford,  has successfully returned this football program to a power run game that generates a lot of yards and points behind a ground game averaging 275 RYPG (No. 6 in the nation) averaging more than 30 points per game. They had one low output of 7 points against Clemson on the road, which can be excused. Last time out they scored 48 points as they are looking more cohesive with their attack as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Texas State has allowed 2 of their L/3 opponents to to light them up for 40+ points, and showed extreme weakness stopping their opponents ground attack allowing 327 rush yards last week vs UL  Lafayette. Im betting Georgia Southern attacks this perceived weakness with what they do best and for Texas State to have more problems vs this visiting colossal ground game, and I project the Eagles scoring in the mid to high 30s at least, with Texas State slightly improved offence projected to score 14-19 point range which coincides with the ats line. If my projected calculations are correct , which I'm betting they are, we have a viable opportunity here to cash an OVER ticket. 

GA SOUTHERN in their L/29 games when they score 28 or more points since 1992 have seen a combined average score of 67 ppg go on the scoreboard .Texas  st  L/30 off a loss against a conference rival have seen a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER

The Seahawks  are being made big home dogs, here to an explosive Rams football team. With that said, I expect the Seahawks to take a conservative approach to this game, and try to eat up as much clock as possible via a slow methodical approach to their dangerous opponents which should result in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. It must be noted that over the  last 5 years: All NFL road favorites of 7 or more points  when the Total is  43 points or more are 4-30-2 UNDER.I know the Rams own a big time offence, that has been putting points up in bunches this season but, NFL same-DIVISION chalk of 15 or less points who scored 33 or more points in each of their last four games  have gone  under 12 straight times. Also TD-plus home pups like Seattle with normal rest are 0-29 UNDER when they are off a road game in where they scored fewer than 23 points and had at least 21:20 of possession time, as long as their opponent is averaging less than 480 yards of offense per game like the Rams are. 

SEATTLE is 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.1 ppg scored. 

NFL  team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 78-35 UNDER 35 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

I'm betting this game has inflated Total attached to it. I know there was a lot of scoring last weeks games, but this is definitely an over reaction by the lines makers according to my head to head stats .

The Chargers are 0-12-1 OU since  2012 at home coming off a game where Philip Rivers threw at least three touchdown passes. Which happened in a 29-27 win vs the 49ers last week.

The Raiders have gone  UNDER 9 straight  L9 division road games with a combined average of  (34.67) scored. 

 OAKLAND is 7-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. 

Divisional underdogs up to +7 points like the raiders on normal rest when they are coming off an OT victory in a tilt where they were favored. are 4-19-1 UNDER. 

NFL team against the total (OAKLAND) - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 27-2 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

I like this game to go over the total despite of the perceived ineptness of both these offences. This over call in based on some key projections I have made . One of my projections estimates that Denver will average 100-125 yards rushing, which is a good omen , as the Broncos in their L/6 when they get to these numbers have seen a combined average of 45.3 ppg scored. 

Raiders are 11-3 OVER vs AFC East. These teams have gone over in the 5 of the L/6 meetings here in with  a combined average of (46.2) ppg going on the board. 

HC Joseph L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of DENVER has seen a combined score of 50.3 ppg scored

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 37-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Iowa State has not done a lot of scoring this season, but against this kind of team they will have to open, up as Im expecting the Cowboys to really do some damage today against a decent defence. Oklahoma State has already proven they can score against the best of defences, putting 44 points up against Boise State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's D, is not of the grade 1 variety,  and I look for Iowa State to do enough damage to get this game into over territory in a score similar to the 37-27 (64 pts) loss they suffered to Oklahoma back on Sept 15.

OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.8 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 76.9 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA ST is 33-8 OVER  in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 2ith a combined average of 72.6 ppg scored.

Oklahoma State is 13-0-1 OVER at home coming off a game where they gained at least 24 first downs.

Play OVER 

These teams took part in a 17-16 snoozefest last season with the Tigers winning , and Im expecting another low scoring sleeper this time round in the swamp. The year before that the Florida won 16-10. DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE.

LSU is 12-1 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40 ppg scored. FLORIDA is 9-1 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.1 ppg scored.


LSU is 0-10 UNDER off a win as a home favorite of more than a TD where they allowed less than 21 points.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (FLORIDA) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

I waited on this Total to make a move downward and it did, and now Im suggesting we take an over stance, as both teams boast to strong QBs who can air it out in a big way. I know these two teams find themselves in the bottom 15 of the FBS in first downs gained on offense but this trend Im betting irons itself out in a hurry, most probably starting tonight. Both sides have had problems running the ball, and I expect both to look downfield quite a bit tonight and a game I have pegged to go over the total .

Both are off big wins , with Middle Tennessee State taking out Flordia Atlantic25-24 and Marshall defeating Western Kentucky 20-17 . Both will now be primed to keep their engines revving and a lot of energy should be on tonights agenda.

Note: Middle Tennesses offensive road numbers and overall offensive averages have been tainted by playing super power Georgia and a decent SEC side Vanderbilt. In their game against lower tier Tenn Martin they put 61 points on the board. 

Holliday is 6-0 OVER  after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of MARSHALL with a combined average of 84 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Ravens and the Steelers are two teams with explosive offences, as is evident by Baltimores 32.3  ppg and Pittsburghs 29.3 ppg. Both also play a quick pace and are ranked number 1 and 2  in  pace. Both teams showcase top tier QBs Flacco and Rothlisberger and both are averaging over 290 passing yards per game, and we should get a big time aerial display here this Sunday night, as both secondaries look weaker than expected. This game has all the makings of a high scoring affair.

Note:The two most recent meetings in this series in Pittsburgh has seen 58 and 77 points go on the board. 

Week 4 games since 2012 when the Total is 49 points or more have gone over 7 straight times.

BALTIMORE is 8-0 OVER  after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 54.6 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - a very good team ( 7 PPG ormolu differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 35-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play OVER 

Play OVER 

After being sky high for their game against New England which they won, the Jags followed that up with a emotional letdown performance last week vs the Titans and lost 9-6 in the ugliest way.  But now after that down effort I expect the Jags will be ready toilet it all hang out this week offensively. Note. Jaguars are 7-0 OU  L/7 at home coming off a home game where they scored less than 14 points. Meanwhile, the Jets , were corralled by Cleveland staunch defence last week, scoring just 17 points, and top tier secondary and were half to just 161 passing yards. The Jets in the recent past have however gone over   8 strong times   when going on the road off a game as a road dog where they threw for less than 200 yards.  I look for Jacksonville to do some damage here and for the Jets to have to open up in order to keep up which will result in what I'm betting will be a high scoring affair. 

JACKSONVILLE in their L/12 in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game since 1992 have seen a  average combined score coming in at 49.1 ppg.

NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. are 39-15 OVER L/35 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 114-66 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Injury update that should help this score jump over the number.RB] 09/26/2018 - Leonard Fournette is upgraded to probable Sunday vs NY Jets ( Hamstring )

Play on the OVER  

USC are 0-12-1 UNDER  on the road when they scored at least 28 points last game. Which happened in a shootout with Washington State 39-36. This is not the kind of football, HC Helton wants this team to play, and Im betting a more conservative type of game will be implemented here on the road. It must be note USC have scored an average of 8.5 ppg in their two road games. 

Arizonas HC Sumlin is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992 which happened in a 35-14 win vs Oregon State last time out. The average combined score of these tilts rings in at 41.4 ppg. 

These teams have gone under in 8 of their L/11 meetings. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (USC) - off a home win against a conference rival, in the first half of the season 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Rockets in their previous two games  vs Fresno State scored 52 and 54 points on the Bulldogs and are currently showing more explosive firepower by already putting 60+ points on the board on two occasions this season. Fresno State has a fine team, but if they want to take out Toledo here this week they are going to have to score in bunches to get the job done. With that said, Im betting on this tilt going over the Total. 

Play OVER 

 Wakes offence has looked explosive this season, but their defence remains and issue and Rice should be able to do some damage here today in what could be an easy over situation. Wake Forest has gone over in 10 straight by an average of 18 ppg coming off a home game that went over the total by double digits.

OVER 

My projections make this a low scoring game. 

CONNECTICUT is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season with an average combined score of 44.1 ppg scored. Cincinnati HC Fickell in his L/12 off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992 has seen a combined average score of 41.8 ppg scored. ( Cincinnati went over and allowed 30 points last time out, in a hard-fought come from behind victory.  This dedicated defensive minded Bearcats team will be ready to make amends here this week, in a more muted conservative effort)

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CONNECTICUT) - poor team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 38-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Thanks  the Cards being shutout last week, and scoring only 6 points in their opener this game has been listed at the ridiculously low asking price of 38 on the total. I know the Cards offence has looked anemic, but they desperately need to get things going and Im betting they take some more chances and open things up a bit, which Im betting will get them a few more points the lineskaers might expect. Meanwhile, Chicago behind an improved offence should be ready to jell behind QB Trubinsky in do some damage of their own. Note:  hey allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. NFL Game 3 teams who scored 14 points or less in each of their first two games have gone OVER 10 straight times, over the last 3 seasons.  Everything points to a higher scoring game than many might expect.

The Cards have gone over 13 straight times on a natural surface  vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a road game in which they allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. Last season using their perimeters it must be noted that  the Cards scored 38 and 27 points on the two occasions this was in play. Meanwhile,Chicago is 18-0 OVER  as a favorite on a natural surface  off a victory when they are going against  a team that is averaging less than 5.3 yards per play and has allowed at least 1.5 sacks per game. 

NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first month of the season are78-42 OVER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

These teams have gone over in 4 straight meetings with a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER  

KC has put up some big offensive numbers so far this season, well above what their season average will be going forward in my humble opinion. Their anomaly output on offence and horrendous defensive performance have now tainted this Total. In two games they have scored 80 points and allowed 65. They scored against perceived good teams, and took a lot of blows, but everything eventually reverts back to the mean, and todays opponent does not set up to end looking for shootout especially on the road. SF despite of having a quality QB at the helm of their offence just does not inspire me to be an explosive offensive team and their defence is capable as well. With that said, his total is beatable on the under. 

The Chiefs were listed as 4.5  dogs last week vs Pittsburgh  but have gone under 11 straight times  when the line is at least five points lower than in their last game, and  have not eclipsed the Total in 14 tries at home coming off a game where they covered.The Chiefs are 0-12-1 OU   since 1996  as a favorite coming off a road win that went over the total by at least 14 points .

KANSAS CITY is 10-1 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. HC Reid is 11-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached in his career with a total combined average 30 ppg going on the board.

NFL Any team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a win by 6 or less points against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were score are 22-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL games with a Total of  56 or more pts have gone under 5 of the L/6 times in Week 15 or less.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars put 31 points up against a solid New England defence last week, and are now running into this tilt vs Tennessee with a boatload full of confidence and feeling ready to dominate opponents with some swagger. Both teams have some injuries on offence with RB Fourette less than 100% and  Titans QB Mariota also nursing a nagging injury. But both should play and even if they do not I'm expecting their replacements to help facilitate a fairly high scoring affair as compared to what the lines makers expect as per my power rankings output estimates suggest. The L/5 meetings in this series have all been listed with fairly low opening totals attached to them, but those meetings combined for an average combined scoring output of 54.4 ppg . It must be noted that Week Three undefeated  home chalk of  3 pts or more are 17-4 OVER L/21 and 6-0 L/6 overall. : All game 2 NFL games with a Total of less than 41 points 32-9-1 OVER L/12 seasons.

NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 32-9 OVER L/10seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

The Dukes behind  transfer quarterback from Florida Atlantic  Daniel Parr enter this game against Hawaii having scored an average of 33 points in their last three games , all of which were victories. Last season they averaged 32.3 ppg , so this is not an anomaly. Meanwhile, Hawaii plays a one way game, that features an explosive offence and a defence that is pourous to say the least. I expect Hawaii to pile up points here vs a lower tier team, but for Duquesne to fire right back in a tilt that promises to be high scoring and very entertaining. 

Play OVER 

A lot of top tier defensive numbers might sway a weekend warrior to bet this tilt under. But Im betting these two capable attacks will knock down each others top tier stopping numbers this week and leave them temporarily shattered. I know both teams have quality defences or so it seems thus far, but they will be tested by the likes of RB Bryce Love of Stanford and  QB Justin Herbert for Oregon . Stanford hung 49 points on the Ducks last season and are capable of a big output again, and the Ducks now with added fire power should be up to the task of doing some scoring of their own.

STANFORD in their L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 65.5 ppg scored.

OREGON in their L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.1 ppg scored. 

Oregon is 11-0 OVER at home coming off a game that went under the total by at least 10 points.

Play on the OVER 

After getting beaten up on by Alabama in their first game the Cards have tightened up their D, and have allowed a total of 24 points in their last two games both wins ( 14 ppg) .That formula for success looks to remain in place this week vs a Virginia team that scored 45 points in a win vs Ohio last week. HC  Mendenhall was not completely happy with the Cavs efforts because of sloppy play and turnovers, and will have his side primed to play a more staunch brand of defensive ball in this tilt. Im betting on both these scenarios to help keep this tilt on the low side of the Total. 

VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.

Virginia has gone under 12 straight times  coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points which happened vs Ohio U last time out. 

Play UNDER 

Washington State plays a one way aerial attack offensive game and nothing will change today. Washington State is ranked 3rd in the country with 421 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, USC will be prepared to air out as well , as it seems that they can't get they're running game going. Since putting 41 points on the board in game 1 of the season USC has struggled to score , and need desperately to get their offence rolling and will be primed to put points on the board here. Washington State will answer back. Im  recommending an over bet. 

WASHINGTON ST is 20-6 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 with a combined average score of 59.3 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (WASHINGTON ST) - with a  defense - allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are  43-16 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the OVER 

I was mildly surprised to Cleveland favoured by a FG or more when I looked at the early lines. They were -1 favs last year, vs the Colts, their only game as chalk ,  and that game flew over the total with 59 combined points going on the scoreboard. Despite of my initial observations I did concede that they have improved since last season, and the offence when given enough time should jell behind some improved parts and if they don't shoot themselves in the foot should have a chance to cover here tonight. However with this being the bad news/luck Browns Ill sit and wait this one on out for a side perspective. With that said, I am betting the Browns score in excess of 24 points here tonight while the Jets a team that scored 48 points in their opener should be good for around 21 points based on my varied power rankings in this spot. It must be noted that the L/6 times the Jets saw a less than 41 point total posted in their road games , that they have stayed  OVER each time. 

NFL non-division home chalk like the Browns in Thursday night NFL tilts have  gone OVER  11 of the L/12 times  when the Total is in the range of 39 to 50 points.

NFL Game Threes are 32-9-1 OVER since 2012 when the  Total is listed at less than 41 points and have Gove OVER 18 of the L/22 times when the home team is favoured. 

NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 31-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate on the blind.

NFL Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 45-17 OVERL/5 seasons  for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the  OVER 

The Cards have its of new key offensive weapons that need to time to get acclimated and gain chemistry, and I expect they will play this game conservatively behind a strong D, that despite of giving up 26 totals points in a loss last week allowed only 3 points in the 2nd half. I expect their D to once again stand tall vs the explosive Rams here today, while their own offense does a lot of field goal damage but very limited TD production. This Im betting will see this contest stay on the low side of the number. This series has gone under 6 straight times . More of the same here.

NFL Division chalk  of 11 points or more like the Rams  have gone  UNDER 8 straight times when the Total is  48 or less points. All Week Two underdogs who scored 10 pts roles  as hosts In their first game are 9-1 UNDER dating back 5 seasons. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Alex Smith is type of QB that plays a short conservative style of football, and is well complemented by a quality consistent running game. The Skins coaching staff have implemented this type of game plan into their schemes as was evident in the Arizona win last week by a 24-6 count. Nothing changes this week vs Indianapolis.Smiths teams are  have not gone above the Total in 10 straight tilts when coming off a victory where the QB threw for at least two touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, the skins also shined, allowing just 145 passing yards and  213 total yards.The Redskins have gone under 11 straight times  as a favorite after a game where they allowed less than 200 yards through the air.  Im betting the Redksins succeed in slowing this game down to a crawl vs Colts side that has seen their L/7 as dogs stay under the total. 

Play UNDER

I think their has been an over reaction to New Orleans ugly outing in game 1 , when they lost in a 48-40 shootout vs Tampa Bay. Now after that PTSD type experience, I expect the Saints to be concentrated on taking care of the ball, vs a tough physical looking Cleveland defense that is very under rated. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of having some new offensive weapons in their tool box will take time to get those key pieces hitting on all cylinders, and for now will a lot quieter than some the pundits expect. With that said, Im betting on this combined score staying on the low side of the Total.All Week Two NFL  home favorites of  8 points  or more  Totals line of 38 pts or more have gone under in 12 of the L/14 tilts dating back 8 seasons. Note: New Orleans has gone under in 9 straight games as  chalk  off a loss when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has a third down conversion percentage less than 35.3%. 

Play UNDER 

  Tampa Bay took part in a crazy shootout out last week in New Orleans winning 48 -40 for a 88 totals points explosion .  Now everyone and his dog is looking at the OVER. The linesmakers however, know better as they  have key stats right in front of them, while the squares don't. This is a bait Total in my opinion, and offers up value to the under wagerer.  It must be noted that NFL teams who allowed 40 or more points as visitors last week  went under in 14 of their next 17 games. Also  all  NFL teams after away tilt    vs the New Orleans Saints  when the Total is 46 or less points have gone under 15 of the L/18 times. With the Eagles short handed on offence with QB Wentz and some key cogs out, they are playing a lot more conservatively , as was the case in their opener In holding decent  Atlanta offence to just 12 points. Im betting on more of the same action here, in what will be a lower scoring affair. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

When first looking at these teams its obvious a causal observer would expect a shoot out here today considering recent stats. But from a mathematical perspective which includes power ranking strengths and weaknesses it very much looks like the Total is getting a little bloated via mostly one way over action from the public. So in my usual contrarian fashion, Ill attack the number to the under.  

Houston is balanced on both sides of the ball, but defence is key their successes and failures. The Cougars have  Outland Trophy-winning DT and future NFL draft pick Ed Oliver playing like his hairs on fire ,and have the best defensive line in the conference. . Houston also owns a   talented secondary that are jelling and Im betting they will give Texas Tech passing game  that has an unsettled quarterback situation some grief here today. Last year these teams took part in a closely contests 27-24 tilt, and I'm betting it will be a much lower scoring affair than the lines makers and public are expecting today.

 [QB] 09/09/2018 - McLane Carter is "?" Saturday vs Houston ( Ankle ) if he plays he will not be 100%. Look for Texas Tech  to pound the ball on the ground more often which will also slow the game down and eat up a lot of clock time.

Houston has gone under 10 straight. times by an average of 9.1 ppg coming off a home where they allowed at least 400 total yards. These teams have stayed under in 3 straight meetings. 

Play UNDER 

LSU put some points up against Miami Florida in their first game of the season and got the win, but here today on the road with inexperienced group and their scoring output vs Auburn 's staunch D, will be muted. Meanwhile, LSU as has almost always been the case continues to recruit strong defensive players, and are loaded again this season,  as was evident when they shutout South Eastern Louisiana 31-0, which will be their strength here today vs Auburn side that has only once put 24 points on the board since 2000 in this series averaging just 18.2 ppg overall. Im betting this game will be a war in the trenches that stays on the low side side of the number. 

LSU is 9-1 UNDERoff a home win over the last 3 seasons and 7-0 UNDER after allowing less than 17 points .

CFB  Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (AUBURN) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 30-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (LSU) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 32-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

SMU has allowed 46 and 42 points in their first two games being an atrocious defence. Michigan is also capable of putting this many points on the board, if not more , behind Quarterback Shea Patterson who threw three touchdown passes in his home debut and has completed 32 of 47 passes to start the season. Sonny Dykes SMU are offensively orientated and will make Michigan staunch defence work hard to stop them, but should still have enough success especially against the 2nd stringers to help this tilt combine to see a score that eclipses the number.SMU  has gone over in 11 straight games  as a dog coming off a home game where they allowed at least 35 points eclipsing the total by ana average of more than 2 TDs,

Play OVER 

The combination of a new coach with offensive tendencies at the helm of the Chicago Bears gives me confidence they can do some damage here tonight. Also as  is almost always the case an Aaron Rodgers led offence should as well  be more capable of making some noise here tonight in Cheeseville. 

My projections have both Green Bay and Chicago putting up more than 20 points. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 54.5 ppg.

The Packers have gone over 16 straight times  as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record with no game seeing less than 50 points go on the board.Week One DIVISION home favorites of 1 or more points with an OU line of  42 or more  pts and  53 or less pts have gone under 8 of the L/9 times.

Play OVER 

The lines makers expect this to be a closely contested game with one mistake possibly costing the other side to lose. Expect both to play conservatively and for defence to be at the forefront. In preseason play Denver allowed less points each time out, and the defence looks stable and on a upward trajectory heading into their home opener.  Seattle has ben a defence first team for a long time and nothing changes today Both have trouble scoring at the best of times, and this tilt will be no different. Defence , Defence and more Defence. 

Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 road games .

Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games overall.

SEATTLE is 31-13 L/44 UNDER  in road games in September games with the average combined score with a combined average of 33.7 ppg going on the board. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game are 62-29 UNDER L/34 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

The Steelers enter this game against the Cleveland Browns with recent history of playing more conservatively on the road than at home especially when favoured. The Steelers   have not gone OVER   in 13 straight games (0-12-1 O/U) over the L/ 2seasons  as -3 or more road chalk  . Today they do go against a Cleveland team that should be more cohesive offensively as the season progresses and the new pieces jell thanks to some of the top tier talent they have added, but for now their a work and progress and recently the Browns have seen only 1 of their L/12 home games eclipse the total with a combined average of just 35.6 ppg scored. Here in week 1 I expect a defensive type North division affair that stays on the low side of the number. 

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.CLEVELAND is 6-0 UNDER  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32 ppg scored. 

Injury updates that Im betting effect this total score.[WR] 08/03/2018 - Antonio Brown is probable Sunday vs Cleveland ( Quad) Not 100% [RB] 09/03/2018 - Le'Veon Bell is doubtful Sunday vs Cleveland.

Play UNDER 

Last season the Giants struggled to score putting up just 16 ppg , going against a tough Jacksonville D that allowed 18 points a game last season, Im betting the Gmens  offence begins this season struggling again. With that said, look for a low scoring affair that stays on the low side of the Total. 

  All Week One teams who won 4 or less games last year vs an AFC opponent when the OU line is in the range of 42-49 points are 4-17-1 UNDER since the 2006 campaign. ( Giants qualify)All Week One NFC home dogs like the Giants are 4-17 L/21  UNDER dating back to the 2014 season. Week One non division road chalk like the Jags are 8-27-1 UNDER L/19 seasons.

NY GIANTS are 22-11 UNDER  in all lined games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.7 ppg going on the board.NY GIANTS are 16-6 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

In their first game of the season Boston College surprisingly opening up their schemes and put on a ferocious aerial assault instead of concentrating on their vaunted ground attack. The  coaching staff did however, look concerned about the Defensive lapses vs UMass, and now want to slow the game down and control pace which hopefully gets their stoppers focused again. But I expect their ground game to be the key for them this week against Holy Cross as the coaching staff will want QB Anthony Brown who suffered a knee injury last season to take less punishment this week before the conference schedule begins as they also know that 3 of their next 4 games  will be taking place on the road. These are two old regional rivals so I won't be surprised if this is a physical game that stays on the low side of the number. Note Holy Cross shut out Colgate in the 2nd half of last weeks  24-17 loss to Colgate. 

Boston College have under 15 straight times by an average 11.7 ppg,  2008 com-ing off a game as a home favorite where they forced at least three turnovers which happened in your opener . the average combined score of these games clicking at 34.7 ppg with non of the games eclipsing this 51 point plateau. 

Play UNDER 

A lot of times certain matchups seem obvious based on expectations . However, the obvious is not always as straight forward as many might think. Central Florida blew through opposing football programs last season, via an explosive offensive attack , and should once again field a up tempo style assault behind new head coach and former Missouri HC Heupel who is all about tempo. This right out of the gate has everyone giddy about the Knights offensive abilities and their chances for a big night against a young rebuilding UConn football program that stunk onnD last season. While UCF despite of some key roster losses are still very talented ,putting up more than 48 points will be difficult, as I expect the Huskies will play a very conservative game plan, that will try to grind clock time down quickly in an attempt to stay competitive. With that said, it must be noted that  Uconns HC Eudsall  teams play their best ball, when the running game is in a groove as he consistently preaches   clock and tempo control something he employs to get an edge on the talent gap he has experienced in the past as was evident when he was a  coach at Maryland. Last season, The Huskies failed  to score more than 24 points in any of the last six games last season a continuation is expected here.

 UCF won a 49-23 decision at home  vs UConn last season with a  72 combined points scored and I'm bettong both were more cohesive last season then they will this season, thus a combined score in the mid to higher 60s would me a much closer correlated event than more than 72+ point out put.

These two opposing game plans.... one fast and one slow, have my scoring projections consistently staying on the low side of this total. I have the Knights putting up between 41 and 47 points, while Connecticut should be able to put up no more than 20-24  points which co ordinated closely to the point spread differentials. 

Play on on the UNDER 

Offences usually start slow, and defences usually are more stable early on in the season, but Im betting the offences take centre stage here in this NCAAF opener. 

Colorado's offense was humming last season, pilling up a  yards by the ton,  averaging a school-record 492.5 yards per game. I know they have to replace some key ingredients, at  quarterback,  running back their top receiver and top tight end from a year ago and three new starters on the offensive line, but the replacements despite of being inexperienced to an extent are just as talented according to my scouting reports and in some cases maybe better. Meanwhile Colorado States D, remains a issue, and now need to replace five starters from a unit that permitted 431.6 yards and 27.8 points per game a year ago. These guys are not as experienced or talented in my opinion as the ones that left. Add to that I'm also not impressed by the Rams by the arrival of   former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Jancek's Colorado Springs . He has hands full, and a recruiting class on D, far less talented then he had in Tennessee. 

On the flipside,Hawaii will incorporate the run-and-shoot in an attempt  to  get the Warriors back to what makes them entertaining . Look for sophomore  QB Cole McDonald and freshman Chevan Cordeiro who have been named as co-starters at quarterback,  to surprise some folks here this week and do a lot more damage than the pundits and lines makers expect. Meanwhile, Hawaii's D, that struggled last season, now has to replace their best linemen and defensive backs and could easily get run over here today, in what Im betting will be a high scoring affair that eclipses the number.

My projections estimate both teams will score at 28 points or more.HAWAII is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 79.8 ppg going on the board.COLORADO ST is 8-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 88.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

Atlanta's top tier D ranked 8th in the league, I'm betting will give Philadelphia interim QB Foles fits this week. It must be noted Foles owns a lowly 27.8 QB rating according to the NFL official website, compared to the injured star Wentz's 75.8 QB rating. Meanwhile, Philadelphia despite of their big numbers with Wentz under center, also had a under appreciated D this season, ranking 4th overall in  the league allowing 18.4 ppg and are more than capable of slowing the Falcons 15th ranked offensive attack and  QB Ryan this this week.  With that said, I'm expecting an old school type of tilt with a lot of smash mouth football and ground heavy football, that culminates in a lower scoring affair that remains on the low side of the Total.

ATLANTA is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game this season and  is 7-1 UNDER  versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game this season.ATLANTA is 10-0 UNDER  off 4 or more consecutive unders over the last few seasons with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  L/6  in home games off a division game and 22-9 UNDER  L/31 after a bye week with the combined average score clicking in at 39.7 ppg.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-9 UNDER 35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

The Falcons are 13-0 UNDER  vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions non of the 13 tilts eclipsed the 41 point plateau, with the combined average score clicking in at 34.2 ppg.

Play UNDER

NFC Wildcard Playoffs

The Saints have averaged 30 plus points at home this season, and I'm betting they will come close to that average here again behind star QB Drew Brees and a strong core of receivers. Meanwhile, QB Cam Newton and company will have to respond and open up the playbook or be blown out , which will result in a high scoring affair that eclipses the number. I know the media is telling us what a fine duo of defenses will be playing each other, in the post season matchup, but it must be noted that Carolina was out yarded by -35 net YPG in the second half of the season, and the Saints were out yarded in their final 6 games.

NEW ORLEANS in their L/7 games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game have seen a combined average score of 60.6 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 9-0 OVER   vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return with a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER  L/8 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season with a combined average of with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board.CAROLINA is 11-2 OVER L/13 in games played on turf with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored. HC Rivera is 17-4 OVER  L/21 vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored.

The Panthers are 15-0 OU, eclipsing the total by an average of 12 ppg  since Ron Rivera became their coach in 2011 as a dog of more than six points. with a combined average of 57.9 ppg scored

Play on the OVER

Both these teams own amazing defenses, but I'm betting on both sides pushing each other, in back forth fashion,  and for this game to eventually go over the total. Clemson has recently shown some offensive explosiveness, scoring 38,31, 61, 34, and 38 points in their L/5 respectively , and will do more damage than most projections this week, against what is still a banged up Alabama defense full of 5 star waling wounded. I really feel the Tide, will have to go out of their comfort zone here and open up the playbook in shocking fashion.

Over is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last 5 games in January.Over is 10-3 in Crimson Tide last 13 bowl games.Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in January.

ALABAMA is 20-7 OVER  L/27 as a neutral field favorite with a combined average score of 51.8 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (ALABAMA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 28-5 OVER L/25 seasons for 85% long term conversion rate.

CFB Any team against the total (CLEMSON) - in major bowl games (played in January), in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

The Steelers enter this game off a heart breaking loss to New England this past Sunday, and have now just completed three straight grueling games, vs Cincinnati and Baltimore and as mentioned above the Patriots last week. I really can't see them having a lot left in the tank and expect a subdued conservative effort from them this week offensively vs a Texas team that they have had a recent history of low scoring affairs against in Houston with a combined average of 30.5 ppg  getting scored . With the Texans struggling to score with outputs of 16,13,16,7 points respectively in their L/4 games, I'm betting their futility remains intact against one of the leagues better defenses.

On the season, the Steelers  have yet to eclipse the number in away games during this campaign with a combined average of 36.6 ppg going on the board. Also 9 or more point road favs have seen their games stay under in 16 of the L/17 tilts if the Total is 37 or more .

PITTSBURGH is 11-1 UNDER  L/12 versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 350 yards/game or more with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER   as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 8-1 UNDER   vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 33.9 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER

I have this game projected to provide some big holiday season offensive fireworks. The Bulls are averaging 38.3 points (No. 15 in FBS statistics), the Red Raiders 34.3. The Bulls have an edge in defensive numbers, holding opponents to 22.5 points per game to Texas Tech's 31.8, but they gave up 533 yards to UCF in their finale and I'm betting they will be gauged again  in what I'm betting will be a back and forth affair.

TEXAS TECH is 26-9 OVER  L/35  in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game with a combined average of 72.4 ppg going on the board.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 OVER  L/6   in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games with a combined average of 83.3 ppg scored.TEXAS TECH is 12-3 OVER  L/15  on a neutral field where the total is greater than or equal to 63 with a combined average of 82.4 ppg scored. HC Kingsbury is 6-0 OVER  L/6 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game  with a combined average of 94.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders, go head to head this Sunday night with both sides still clinging to play off hopes.

The Cowboys look to be clicking on offense scoring 28 and 30 points in their L/2 games, even with RB  Ezekiel Elliot out because of suspension. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for 332 yards last week vs the Giants , and showing he can move the chains through the air. Today against a Raiders secondary that allowed the Chiefs and average of 12.1 yards per passing  play last week, Prescott should be ready to get it done and again and put a boatload full of points on the board helping this game go over the number. I know Oakland has not been lighting things up of late offensively, but there is more than enough talent  here for them to fight back in desperation, and also put points up on the board.  The Raiders are 12-1 L/13 OVER in non division home games  with a combined average of 55.1 ppg going on the board .

Cowboys are 10-2 L/12 after their D, allowed 10 points or less in their last game.

HC Del Rio is 9-2 OVER  in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.

Over is 37-17-3 in Cowboys last 57 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Play OVER

It's chilly this time of year in KC, and the warm weather Chargers I'm betting will be slowed down by the cool weather . It must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 14 of their L/16 home games in December/January. Considering the Chargers are 1-7 UNDER L/8 overall , and own the 2nd ranking scoring D in the NFL  I will not be surprised with a low scoring affair here this week.  When these teams played back in Sept the Chiefs took a physical 24-10 win and a similar type of score is not out of the question and according to my numbers a high probability outcome.

The Chargers road games this season average just 38.7 combined points per game.

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER  L/7 after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Reid is 19-6 UNDER  in a home game with KC where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored   LA CHARGERS is 6-0 UNDER  L/6 after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 14-4 UNDER L/18 in games where the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a home loss against opponent, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

AUTONATION CURE BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Both these teams struggled to put points on the board this season, with W.Kentucky averaging only 19 ppg away from home, and Georgia State 19.7 ppg overall on offense. I'm betting on points to once again be hard to by for both sides, and for the combined total score to end up on the low side of the number.

GEORGIA ST is 12-4 UNDER  L/16 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (GEORGIA ST/W.KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

New England tonight  will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was suspended for one game by the league for his intentional late hit last week against Tre'Davious White of the Buffalo Bills. He is a key cog in the Pats offensive attack and I'm betting will effect the Pats production . Meanwhile, Patriots D, is now in top form and have not allowed more than 17 points in 7 straight games ( 11.56 ppg). Tonight against a Dolphins side  averaging 17.4 points and ranked 26th in the league in offense, I'm also betting on New England's defense to stand tall and make like difficult for the inconsistent Jay Cutler and company. Everything points to this being a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Yes, I know that Fins exploded last week vs Denver winning and scoring 35 points, but its interesting to note, that teams that are 3 or more point dogs, off a of a straight up underdog win at home in which they scored 35 points have gone UNDER 7 straight times dating back to last season.

Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL road chalk of 8 points or more like the Pats are 31-4 UNDER since 2011 campaign, and have gone under 20 of the L/21  times overall. Also divisional road favs of more than a FG have gone under 10  of the L/11 times.

Play UNDER

Last week SFs QB Garoppolo went 26 for 37 for 293 yards, and his opponent today from the Texans Savage went 31 of 49 for 365 yards. With both these teams defenses ranked near at the bottom of the league ( SF 25th) Houston ( 28th) a high scoring game is not out of the question. It's not like these teams have anything to play for  other than pride , so a loosely played affair is a high probability according to my own projections. Yes, I do know both teams have had trouble putting points on the board consistently, but I'm expecting a lot more points this week than many might anticipate.

HOUSTON is 16-3 OVER L/19  in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games of 48.3 ppg going on the board. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games with combined average of 48.5 ppg.

NFC West teams @ AFC South teams are 22-4 OVER L/4 seasons and have seen a combined average 52.3 ppg this season.

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.

NFL  Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night in an AFC North showdown that I am betting will be a grueling defensive affair.

Pittsburgh despite of a very good record, are for the most part winning games with their defense, and are ranked fourth in the league with  points allowed at 17.5 ppg. With that in mind its interesting to note that  the Bengals seem to their best offensive work when they can run the  ball, but  the Pittsburgh defense only gives up an average of 96 yards per game on the ground, which ranks sixth in the NFL. My own projections tell me that  the Bengals a team that averages just 18.1 ppg on offense overall and just 16.3 ppg at home will have another muted offensive output in this event.  Note: Pittsburgh pass defense is getting continuously better and are now, ranking third in the NFL by only allowing 193.4 yards a game.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati ranks fifth in the NFL in pass defense, only allowing 203.8 yards a game. The Bengals are 10th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.5 per contest. So points for the Steelers wont come easily . Also as far as the big strike WR Brown goes,   he also may not be as big factor as he usually is. Note: Brown has faced the Cincinnati defense 15 times in his career, 14 regular-season games and one playoff game. He went over 100 yards only three times in those contests, and the Bengals secondary according to my current ratings matches up very well against him.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32  ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER L/12  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER  in road lined games this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 16-5 UNDER  in the second half of the season during the last few seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. 

NFL Monday night division games with the away team favored by more than 3 points have gone under 6 straight times.

Steelers have gone under 8 straight times in division road game and have gone under 8 straight times as a road fav or 4 points or more. Bengals have gone under in 3 straight Monday night appearances.

NFL team against the total (CINCINNATI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 27-8 UNDER L./5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - good offensive team (335 to 370 YPG) against a team with an average defense (295 to 335 YPG), after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 64-30 UNDER L/34 seasons for a 68% long term conversion rate for totals bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

These teams in recent meetings have played some low scoring affairs with the average combined score clicking in at 35.8 ppg in the L/4 meetings including a 33-0 shut out by the Rams earlier this season. The Rams have been explosive offensively, but what stands out is their defense, that is allowing just 18.7 ppg. Considering how muted the Arizona offense has been for the most part this season, averaging just 18.5 ppg, I'm betting the home teams output will be muted once again, which will aid in this tilt staying under the set total. It must also be noted that TD or more divisional road favs have gone under 22 of the L/23 times dating back 3 seasons when the  total is 52 or less. Cardinals have gone under L/6 divisional home games. Rams have gone under in 8 of their L/10 as road favs.

ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER L/7  in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return with the average combined score clicking in at 40.3 ppg. LA RAMS is 6-0 UNDER  L/6  after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game with a  combined average score of 33.3 ppg getting scored. LA RAMS is 13-4 UNDER l/17 in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points  with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored. All Week 12 divisional games are 19-40 UNDER L/10 seasons.

The Rams have gone UNDER 15 straight times vs a divisional opponent when they are off a game as a favorite in which they allowed four or fewer or third down conversions with the average combined score clicking in at 35.2 ppg.

NFL team against the total (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for totals bettors.

NFL team against the total (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

We all know the Eagles bring an explosive offense to this game , but their defense must be respected. Actually Both the Eagles and the Bears are defensively capable, with the Eagles ranking #7 in yards allowed and Chicago ranked No.11 in yards allowed. With that said, I'm expecting a slower game than many might anticipate especially in the 2nd half.   This week I wont be surprised if Philly goes into cruise control, takes a big league than milks it slowly for a grinding victory. It must be noted that NFL favs of -13 or more have stayed UNDER the total  9 straight times with a total of 48 or less points .

The Bears are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a TD-plus road dog when they are off a loss and facing a team that had more regular season wins the previous season with the combined average score clicking at  36.2 ppg.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 UNDER  L/13  in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game in the second half of the season with t a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total like Philadelphia  - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 35-11 under L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

This game looks very much like it will see a lot of points put on the board this week in the Super Dome. Both teams rank in the top 10 in passing yards, and will be ready to unload in a big way here this week. Dating back to the 2015  season the Skins have gone over in 12 of their L/15 road games. I know the Saints D, is much improved, but over the L/3 seasons Saints home games have seen a combined average 63 ppg go on the board, and no one should be surprised by another huge output here this Sunday. Last week Washington put 30 points on the board against the Vikings 4th ranked D, so based on their prowess packing on the points here will not be as difficult as some might think for the Skins.

WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER  L/6 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more  yards per return.WASHINGTON is 11-1 OVER  L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging  350 or more yards/game.NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER  L/9  in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season .WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER   after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game  ( All the combined averages of these games went over todays total)

The Saints are 20-0 OU L/20 off a game as a favorite when facing a non-divisional opponent that has averaged fewer than 5.2 rushing first downs per game. the last 10 games have all eclipsed the 51 point plateau.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games have seen the OVER convert 24 of the L/29 times dating back 10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

After getting crushed for 50 plus points by Philadelphia last time out, I'm betting the Broncos , settle down and  go back to basics this week and pound the ball on the ground consistently in an effort to stay competitive and eat clock against the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots.  The usually staunch Denver D, looked tanked last week, as they were playing their third straight road game. Now back in the high altitudes of the Rockies their D should be ready to get back to what they do best, and that is partake in smash mouth football. Meanwhile, the Patriots, after a slow start on defense, are starting to jell into top form, allowing 14, 17,7, 13 points respectively in their L/4 ( 12.75 ppg) and will give the offensively challenged Broncos all they can handle this week. With that said, I'm expecting a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers do.

Note: AFC dogs, of 10 points or less, who gave up  50 points or more in their L/game on the road, have gone under 9 of the L/10 times dating back 10 seasons.

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  L/12  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 38.1 ppg going on the board.DENVER is 13-3 UNDER  L/16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average of 37 ppg going on the board.

NFL Road teams against the total like New England - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record ARE 24-3UNDER during the L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 26-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

NFL Home teams against the total like Denver  - off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 22-4 UNDER dating 5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 22-4 UNDER for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

The Carolina Panthers D, is currently looking like a top tier unit, on 3 different occasions they have held their opponent to FG in wins, and they have not allowed a offensive Touchdown in their L/8 quarters of football allowing an average of 17.7 ppg on the season. Meanwhile, the offense is sputtering and have averaged just 18.5 ppg on the season, . On the flipside their opponents the Atlanta Falcons do not look as prolific offensively as they did last season, and are averaging just 21.9 ppg. On the brighter side their D, is playing better than last season, and allowing 4 ppg less then the previous campaign  and only once have allowed more than 23 points in a game this season.

These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings.

NFL  NFC South Division teams have gone under in 15 of their L/16 when the home team is favored by 8 points or less and the Total is less than 56.

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread with a combined average of 38 ppg going on the board. CAROLINA is 24-7 UNDER L/31 off a road win against a division rival with a combined average of 36.9 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Atlanta - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 37-12 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo has played an extreme brand of disciplined/conservative  ball on the road this season  and have scored an average of just 14 ppg on offense, while allowing just 15.3 ppg. They have given up some yard but have proven resilient and bend but don't break mind set. Meanwhile, the Jets have scored just 20 ppg on average and given up just 18.7 ppg. My own projections estimate both team to put between 14-20 points on the board , which gives credence to an under bet based on my estimates.

note: BUFFALO in their L/50 in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points have seen average of  35.9 ppg get scored. NY JETS are in their L/103 games when they allow 15 to 21 points have seen average of 36.8 ppg go on the board.

The Bills have gone UNDER 14 straight times when the line is within four of pick and on turf vs a team that had fewer regular season wins the previous season, as long as they are not hosting the Dolphins  the total highest combined score clicked in at 39 points with the average combined score coming in at 28.3 ppg.

NFL team against the total like the Jets - in a game involving two lower tier defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 32-8 UNDER the L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for under bettors.

Play UNDER  1 unit reg selection

Denver enters this game off getting shut out last week, as their offense continues to look horrendous on a regular basis and has not score more than 17 points since their week 1 opener. One thing they have going for them is a solid D, ranked No.2 in the NFL and more than capable of slowing down the KC Chiefs this Monday night.DENVER is 13-4 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game , with the combined average score of 38.1  ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, KC comes off a higher scoring Thursday night game losing a heartbreaker to Oakland 31-30 on a last minute play.. It must be noted however, that teams off a Thursday game than playing on a Monday have seen their games stay under the total 9 of the L/10 times dating back 6 seasons and the Chiefs have gone under 9 straight times after playing the Raiders, and  are 1-5 under off a Thursday game. I',m expecting this to be a defensive snooze fest that remains on the low side of the number

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER L/6 off a road loss with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with a combined average of 39.1 ppg getting scored.Reid is 10-1 UNDER L/10 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the board.

NFL team against the total like KC- in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after allowing 30 points or more last game are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

The 49ers enter this game ranked 30th in the league in scoring D, after last weeks debacle when they allowed 501 yards of offense and 40 points in a ugly home loss. SAN FRANCISCO is 16-4 OVER  L/20  in road games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game with a combined average of 51.6 ppg going on the scoreboard and  11-2 OVER  L/13 after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game with a combined average of 52.6 ppg going on the board.

Meanwhile, Philly enters this tilt as one of the leagues most potent teams, averaging 28.4 ppg and 31.7 ppg at home, and are currently around -14 point favs here, which indicates a high scoring affair. It must be noted that non division conference chalk of -12 points or more have gone over 14 of the L/16 times. The Niners looked tired last week and now travelling from West to East their body clocks will see them even more tired, which I'm betting as the linesmakers do that they will get beat up on. However, I'm also betting that SF, will do just enough damage in response to the Eagles attack to push this game over the Total.

Philadelphia has gone over in 3 straight and SF have gone over in 4 of their L/5.

My own numbers suggest both teams will put 20 or more points on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 11-0 OVER   when both teams score 20 or more points with a combined  score with a combined average of 50.5 ppg going on the board.   Projected score :Philadelphia 34 SF 21

NBA team against the total like the 49ers - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 39-13 OVER  the L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

The Carolina Panthers well rested after playing and losing last Thursday enter this game having gone over in 4 straight games with the combined average of 57.2 ppg gong on the board. This Sunday after their sleepy looking effort last time out will come out with all guns blazing looking for redemption and drag the Bears into a wider open affair than the lines-makers expect as is evident by the total. This I'm betting helps us easily eclipse this Total.

It must noted that the Bears are 7-0 OVER L/7 vs all teams off a Thursday night game. Carolina has gone OVER in their L/4 after a Thursday night tilt.

My own projections estimate that Carolina's offense averaging 27.7 ppg on the road this season will once again put between 24-28 points on the board, again, vs a Bears side that has allowed 24.7 ppg on defense this season. On the flipside, I'm seeing upward momentum in Chicago's offense, scoring 27 points last week. I'm expecting them to put more than 22 points on the board again, which is significant since they are a long term 75-24 OVER when they score 22 to 28 points with a combined average of 46.1 ppg getting scored in those tilts. Carolina is 53-23 OVER when they allow 22 to 28 points with a combined average of 46.8 ppg getting scored.


CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in October games dating back 3 seasons for a combined average of 64 ppg going on the board. Carolina's HC Rivera is 7-0 OVER L/7 in road games against NFC North division opponents with a combined average of 55.3 ppg getting scored.

NFC North vs NFC South Games have gone over 11 of the L/12 times when a line of -5 or less.

The L/3 meetings here in Chicago have seen an average of 54.3 ppg scored.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

Oakland's offense enters this home game against the KC Chiefs struggling to put points up on the board, and have  put 10, 10, 17 and 16 points up on the score board in their L/4 tilts respectively  for an average of 13.25 ppg. Everything from the offensive line to the WRs, and even franchise QB Carr is struggling and don't believe any immediate answers will come vs the Chiefs smash mouth D ,tonight in Oakland. What is also surprising for me at least is how well, overall the Raiders D, has played allowing an average of just 21 ppg, and have held 4 of their 6 opponents to 20 points or less this season. With that said, I can see the Raiders offense continuing to struggle against a D that is now ramped up after a tough battle with Pittsburgh last week, and for the Raiders D, to continue their upward momentum towards respectability which will lead to a much lower scoring game than the lines-makers are anticipating.

KCs HC Reid,  is 8-0 UNDER  L/8 after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game with a combined average of 39.9 ppg going on the board and is 15-4 UNDER  L/19 in weeks 5 through 9 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg getting scored and is also  8-1 UNDER  L/9 after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game with a combined average of 37.8 ppg going on the score board.

Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games in Week 7.Under is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Raiders last 5 vs. AFC West.Under is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings. The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored. Raiders have gone under in 4 straight in back to back division games.

NFL Road teams against the total like KC- after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record are 24-2 UNDER for a 92% conversion rate for bettors during the L/5 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

This week I expect the well rested Skins off a bye to come out, ready to run and gun, and I'm betting they will drag the Niners into reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own. This will result in what will be a high scoring affair.

Its also interesting to note that the 49ers are traveling west to east  this week to play the Redskins in their own backyard. During the last two seasons teams that are travelling from the west coast to the east as road underdogs of 1 point or more like the Niners are 16-1 OVER with SF going over in 7 of their 8 games under these perimeters dating back 3 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 12-3 OVER  L/15 when playing against a team with a losing record with a combined average of 53.4 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 10-2 OVER  L/12 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more yards per return with a combined average of 54.5 ppg going on the board. Washington, is 7-0 OVER in non division home games with a Total of 49 points or less. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER  L/6 after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average of 53.3 ppg getting scored. WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER  L/7 after 1 or more consecutive losses with a combined average of 52.3 ppg going on the board.

SF has gone OVER 12 straight times as a non division road dogs of 4 points or more.

NFL teams against the total like the 49ers - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 35-12 L/47 overall for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

Bowling Greens offense is horrendous and cannot move the ball with consistency as is evident by averaging just 19.5 ppg. 'm betting their output will be muted again, and that they will just t try to stay competitive by eating clock time and put everyone who bothers to watch this game to sleep. Considering Ohio is pretty banged up and have a long list of injured and walking wounded I expect despite of  this being a conference game, that they will be conservative in their approach as they try to stay healthy for bigger games ahead. This combination will make for what will be a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the number.

OHIO U is 10-0 UNDER  L/10 against conference opponents with a combined average of 41.5 ppg going on the board.

BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 UNDER  L/6 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse with a combined average of 54.8 ppg going on the board. 

OHIO U is 8-1 UNDER  L/9 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games with a combined average of 49.4 ppg getting scored.

BOWLING GREEN is 8-0 UNDER  L/8  in home games after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games with a combined 41.3 ppg getting scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 Bowling Green - after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, in October games are  80-37 UNDER over the L/10 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Arizona's high powered offense of the last few seasons has been muted so far this season, as they are averaging just 18.5 ppg in their first 4 games  , thanks in part  to a weak offensive line. Arizona is also without RB  David Johnson  and they will miss him greatly here. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been adequate on both offense and defense, and another average output game will be expected. Their also on tired legs after traveling out to the West Coast last week, and could come here a little slowly.Considering both teams current form I'm betting on a combined score that remains on the low side of the number.

Arizona has gone under in 4 of their L/5 vs Philly with a combined average of 43.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.

PHILADELPHIA is 13-3 UNDER L/16 in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 38 ppg going on the board.(Last week they combined for 50 pts in a 26-24 win vs the Chargers) the Eagles has gone under 4 straight times after a road fog win, and have gone under in 6 of  their L/8 vs NFC west.

The Cardinals are 0-12 UNDER  L/12 on grass after a win in which they did not hold the lead after any of the first three quarters with a combined average of 32.2 ppg going on the board.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Philadelphia  - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 57-24 UNDER for a 70% conversion rate during the L/24 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

After the Ravens   were ripped apart in London last Sunday , absorbing a 37-point loss , I'm betting they look for immediate atonement, and come out here with a staunch defensive effort vs their rivals the Steelers in game I am betting is a grinding hard hitting affair that stays under the Total.

Under is 21-7 in Steelers last 28 road games.Under is 23-9-1 in Steelers last 33 vs. AFC.Under is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 vs. AFC North.Under is 10-4 in Ravens last 14 home games.Under is 7-2 in Ravens last 9 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER  L/13 as a road favorite with a combined average of 40 ppg going on the board.  PITTSBURGH is 15-3 UNDER  L/18 in the first half of the season  with a combined average of 41.6 ppg going on the board. Baltimore's HC Harbaugh is 7-0 UNDER L/7  in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game with a combined average of 27.4 ppg going on the board.The Ravens have gone under 12 straight times by an average of 9.5 ppg as a home dog vs a team that had more regular season wins the previous season with a combined average of 32.8 ppg going on the scoreboard, with highest combined score clicking in at 39 points.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

The Dallas D, came to play last week against Arizona winning 28-17 on the road at Arizona and I'm betting that same D, will control Rams  QB Jeared Goff and  company this Sunday. I'm also betting on a Rams well rested  D, that despite of being inconsistent to display some stopping power with fresh legs under them. Look for both teams to use a run heavy orientated attack that will speed the clock up and slow the game down to a grind , which in turn will result in a lower scoring affair than the line might indicate.

DALLAS is 7-0 UNDER  L/7 vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last few seasons with the combined score of those tilts ringing in at 34.7 ppg.LA RAMS is 7-0 UNDER   after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored , which happened in last Thursday nights 41-39 win vs the 49ers , with the average combined score clicking in at 33.8 ppg. LA RAMS is 6-0 UNDER l/6   in road games after playing their last game on the road with a combined score of 33.4 ppg scored.

The Rams are 0-15 UNDER by an average of 11.5 ppg on the road vs a non-divisional opponent that is scoring more than 24.3% of their points from field goals with the average combined score clicking in at 29.4 ppg, with the highest combined score during the run 39 points 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like the Rams - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 27-6 under in their next game, dating back 34 seasons, for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Colorado State is a explosive side with a lot of offensive talent. Against a defensively challenged team like Hawaii I'm betting they unload for a boatload full of points. Meanwhile, Hawaii, has proven they can score in bunches, and will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own  in what I am betting will be a high scoring affair.

COLORADO ST in its L/6 games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play have seen a combined score of 74.3 ppg go on the board.COLORADO ST is 9-1 L/10 OVER  in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game with a combined average of 66.5 ppg getting scored.HAWAII is 15-1 OVER L/16 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival which happened vs Wyoming last time out in a 28-21 loss. The combined average score of those games rings in at 66.5 ppg.

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection

Cincinnati was on the wrong end of  a 13-9 decision at home against the Texans on Thursday Night Football last week.  The Bengals are ranked  a dismal  22nd in the NFL in both passing (178.5 yards per game) and rushing (79.5 yards per game) and are ranked 31st in scoring offense  averaging just 4.5 ppg. On the flip side they are currently ranked 7th in scoring defense allowing just 16.5 points per tilt. These early season numbers are not an anomaly and something that I'm  betting continues. Meanwhile, Green Bay enters this game, in a letdown spot off a loss in the NFC Finals rematch last week against Atlanta and may come out with a muted early effort this week , which will contribute to a much lower scoring game than many might expect.

Under is 20-8-1 in Bengals last 29 road games.Under is 11-5 in Packers last 16 home games.

Lewis is 15-5 UNDER  L/20  in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games  with a combined average of 37.5 ppg going on the board.

The Bengals have gone under 14 straight times  by an average of 12.82 ppg on the road after a game in which at least 30 percent of their first downs were from third down with a combined average of 31.4 ppg going on the board with the highest score clicking in at 42 points.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

The Browns going forward now base their successes and failures and their ground attack and ball control and overall conservative approach that eats up a lot of clock time. They will not score a lot of points , but also won't score many, Today they face a Indianapolis team that is a mess, and without starting QB Andrew Luck which will make their offense muted as well. This combination will lead to a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total.

INDIANAPOLIS is 21-8 UNDER  L/29  in home games against AFC North division opponents with a combined average of 37.7 ppg getting scored.

Browns have gone under 19 straight times by an average 9.29 ppg when the line is within three of pick and they are off two games in which they scored fewer points than expected with a combined average of 28.4 ppg  getting scored with the highest output clicking in at 38 points.

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The Broncos smacked 42 points on the board vs Dallas last time out and showed their offensive prowess, and now this week, I expect they will also do significant damage vs a Buffalo side that has over achieved defensively in their first two games, vs the Jets and the Panthers. I'm also expecting for the Bills to score above what the lines makers expect in a big time back and forth effort. No matter which way this plays out the Total is tainted because of previous results, and way to low in my humble betting opinion.

BUFFALO is 8-1 OVER  in home games over the last 2 seasons, with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the board.

Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games in September.Over is 7-2 in Bills last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 10-4 in Bills last 14 games overall.

The Broncos have gone over 16 straight times by an  average of 13.2 rpg as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent that had less than 26:15 minutes of possession time in their last game with combined average of 60.7 ppg getting scored, with the lowest output during the streak clicking in at 45 points.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points like the Bills - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 37-12 OVER for 76% conversion rate the last 10 seasons for bettors.

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Last week Jacksonvilles D, got blown up for 37 points by Tennessee, and now I'm betting Baltimore and  QB Joe Flacco will have their turn to burn the Jags D this week in Wimbley Stadium in London England even though they have injury issues with the offensive line. With Jags QB Blake Bortles under pressure to perform , I'm betting a sometimes explosive Jags offense will keep pace, and provide  us with a tilt that eclipses the number.  Hey, I know the Ravens D has looked good in their first two games vs Cincinnati and Cleveland , but that is hardly a measuring stick of their stopping  proficiency. Last week the Ravens allowed 293 passing yards and 93 rushing yards on 21 carries and it was their ability to get turnovers that buoyed them.

Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER   in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival , which happened in a 24-10 vs Cleveland . the combined score of these tilts rings in at a combined average of 48 ppg.

The Jaguars have gone over in 16 straight by an average of 12.25 ppg in franchise history on a natural surface off a home loss in which they never led and they are facing a team that is averaging less than 1.6 turnovers per game. with a combined average of 57.5 ppg getting scored with the lowest combined output clicking in at 43 points.

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KC may have taken part in a high scoring game with the NE Patriots last time out, (42-27) but Andy Reids teams are based on a grinding defensive style of play, and I'm betting the veteran coach reverts back to this type of football. Also the Eagles, despite of putting 30 points up on the hapless looking Washington Redskins last week, will find the sledding much tougher this week and  I'm betting their  offensive output to be much more muted. This game Total is tainted in my opinion because of an over reaction to last weeks results which gives us value on the under side of this number.

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER  L/7 in the first month of the season over the last few seasons, with a combined average of 41.3 ppg going on the scoreboard.KANSAS CITY is 9-1 UNDER  L/10 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the board. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  L/6 in home games after playing their last game on the road with a combined average of 35.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  L/6  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread with a combined average 36.8 ppg getting scored. KC HC Reid is 21-7 UNDER  L/28 as a home favorite with a combined average of 38.5 ppg getting scored and  is 16-4 UNDER   in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 39.7 ppg going on the board. Reid is 15-4 UNDER  L/19  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach with  a combined average of 37.4 ppg clicking in.

The Chiefs have gone under in 14 straight as a favorite and vs a non-divisional opponent that had fewer regular season wins the previous season going under by an average of 8.39 ppg, with the combined average score of 35.6 ppg scored, with no game exceeding the 48 point Totals plateau.

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Eastern Michigan enters this game off a 24-7 home win over Charlotte, while the Knights are off a 30-14 home loss to Washington. I was impressed by Rutgers ability to move the ball vs a top tier Washington football program last week. This week my own projections estimate that Rutgers will put 28+ points on the board vs Michigan, behind Louisville transfer,  QB Kyle Bolin  .

Last year E.Michigan allowed 29.8 ppg. E MICHIGAN is 8-1 OVER L/9 in road games when they allow 28 or more points with a combined average of 71.9 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Meanwhile, on the flip side, E.Michigan has shown the ability to score in bunches in the past,  behind  QB Brogan Roback who last year had  a viable season as he threw for 2694 yards with 18 TDs .  Last year Rutgers were smashed  for 264.2 ypg on the ground, which was 126th in the nation, and while some think they will be improved , I'm not one of them .  I'm betting E.Michigan does some damage this week, and both accumulate enough points to put this score over the listed total.

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 like Rutgers - off a home loss, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games are 23-2 OVER dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

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Georgia Tech and Tennessee both have defensive issues when it comes to stopping the run. Last year Gtech front 7 was a sad group that recorded only 18 sacks all season long, and I'm betting early in this campaign, vs a decent recruitment core of Tennessee options ie (junior John Kelly)  their going to have issues again being able to sustain pressure and keep the field from opening up.. With both teams expected to be running the ball down the throat of the other side all night long a boatload full of accumulated yards and points must be expected. Both teams have question marks on offense, but both have more than enough reloaded talent  behind attacking systems to do some damage here tonight vs defenses that should be soft at best. My own projected estimates suggest the Tennessee will allow the Ramblin Wreck 28pts+….It must be noted that Tennessee is TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER when they allow 28 or more points with themselves and their opponents combining for a total of 76.7 ppg. Im also betting that Tennesse allows 300 yds + rushing ….TENNESSEE is 9-1 OVER  when they allow 300 or more rushing yards with a combined average of 64 ppg getting scored. I also expect GTech to allow at least 28 + points.....TENNESSEE is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 79.6 ppg going on the board. GEORGIA TECH is 40-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 79.6 ppg getting scored.  

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BYU showed their physicality and defensive power in their first game of the season vs Portland State as 20-6 win, as well as their ability to smash the ball on the ground in grinding fashion on offense Yes. the offense did struggle, and QB Magnum Tanner looked like he had a lot of rust on him, gaining just 194  passing yds. I'm betting BYUs D, will once again be  solid this week vs LSU and in an effort to slow this game down and eat up clock the same type of offensive game plan will be implemented here as was the case in their first game. Meanwhile, Bill Oregeron's LSU will play their first game of the season, and rust and kinks may not make them as fluid offensively as they will be later on this season, which will curtail their overall offensive output in this spot as they get accustomed to new offensive coordinator Matt Canada .  I also expect LSUs to use a large dose of key back Gucie this week, which in turn will eat up even more clock time,  and for the Bayou Benglas D to be  stopper tonight and  for BYU to struggle to put points on the board. With that said, I am betting Saturday's affair will  remain on the low side of the Total.

BYU is 11-3 UNDER L/14 in all games .LSU is 10-2 L/12 UNDER  in all games.LSU is 10-1 UNDER   when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board. LSU is 6-0 UNDER  in the first half of the season last season with a combined average of 39.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play UNDER

I expect this to be a hard fought physical game, and for the total combined  score to stay on the low side of the number. 

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER L/9  in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.

NFL teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 like Pittsburgh - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record  are 29-10 under since 1983. Steelers are 2-8 OU as a dog - since Sep 10, 2015 with a combined average of 44.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Steelers are 4-16 OU L/20 on the road - since Dec 14, 2014 with an average of 41.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.Steelers HCTomlin is 21-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5.The Steelers are 0-11 OU as a dog off a win in which they scored fewer points than expected with an average of 30.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.  Steelers are 0-15 OU as a dog off a road win in which they outgained their opponent with an average of 31.9 ppg going on the scoreboard.

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Alot has been made of the Texas defense, but New England is down right explosive offensively and can score against he best of teams. I am betting nothing changes today. The linesmkaers also believe the Pats will own this game as is evident by the line -16. What I expect will happen is tht New England scores in bunches, and than Texas than has to open up to keep pace or be blown off the field, which will result in a higher scoring tilt than many might expect, based on the false assumption that the Texans can use their defense to make this a slow grueling affair. While I admit that on any given Suday lightining can strike, its highly unlikely here in this spot. Do not be surprised if the Pats almost eclipse this total on their own.

 Belichick is 21-5 OVER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with a combined average of 52.3 ppg going on the scorebord.

The Patriots are 18-0 OU as a favorite after a TD-plus win and they are facing a team that just held their opponent to less than 250 yards of offense, which the Texans did last time out .

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Slowing down the Pittsburgh offense   will be a challenge for a Dolphins' defense that ranked just 29th in total defense at 382.6 yards per game. Meanwhile, despite of who will start for Miami at QB, I expect the that RB Jay Ajayi who had a 200 yard outing against Pittsburgh this season, will be a centerpiece in some offensive fireworks by the Fins. With that said, I expect a ailry high scoring game that the eclipses this total. 

MIAMI is 10-2 OVER L/12 against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 49.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.  MIAMI is 9-2 OVER L/11 in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season with  combined average of 48 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Fins have gone over in 6 straight games, while the Steelers have eclipsed the number in 3 of their L/4. HC Tomlin is 6-0 OVER L/6 in home games in January games with an average of 50.3 ppg getting scored. 

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Houston  and Cincinnati  series has gone under  3 meetings... with an average of only 27.7 combined points per game going on the scoreboard.. Both theses teams have proven to be offensively impotent this season, and I am expecting more of the same muted action this Christmas Eve. I m expecting the Texans strong D, t stand tall and for the Texans, QB Savage making his end career start to struggle. 

Houston is 0-4  under vs AFC  North. Bengals have gone under in 5 in a row as  a 5 point or less dog.

HOUSTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season .CINCINNATI is 12-3 UNDER L/15 as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons with an average of 39.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. CINCINNATI is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in road games in December games with a combined average of 38.7 ppg getting scored. 

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LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

LA  Tech averaged 44 ppg on offense this season, and allowed   32.6 ppg on defense. Meanwhile, Navy average scored an average of 37.4 ppg and allowed 29.7 ppg. I expect both will do a load of scoring today in game that easily eclipses the total. LOUISIANA TECH is 7-0 OVER L/7 when the total is between 63.5 and 70 this season with a combined average of 82 ppg going on the scoreboard.  LA Techs Holtz is 12-4 OVER L/18 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game with an average of 72.3 ppg getting scored. 

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The LA Rams enter this game, with a new interim head coach, after getting blown out last Sunday 42-12 by Atlanta, and have allowed an average of 39 ppg in their L/3 gridiron embarrassments. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are off a 38-10 smack down at the hands of the GB Packers.  This week, I expect the Seahawks to come out on fire, and not let up until the final whistle. The lines-makers agree with my assessment, and have made the home side 15 point favorites, something Im not touching based on stubborn principle alone. But with that said, I can see the Seahawks putting enough points on the board , to eclipse this total almost all by themselves. ( Seattle has scored 26,31,26, and 40 points in their L/4 home games)

SEATTLE is 23-9 OVER L/31 in home games after a loss by 14 or more points with an average of 45 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Road teams like the LA Rams  a poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games have gone over 26 of the L/31 times for a massive 84% conversion rate for over bettors.. 

 NFL  FAVORITES of -15 or more points like the Seattle Seahawks have only once failed to eclipse the total 11 times dating back four seasons for a 90% conversion rate for OVER bettors .

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The LA Rams have a rookie QB Goff at the helm of the offense, and have struggled mightily with him in or out, as is evident by ranking last in the NFL in scoring offense averaging just 15 ppg, and Im betting will make the Falcons swiss cheese D, look decent this week. The average combined score of a Rams home game has seen 27 ppg go on the board. Today against Atlanta's explosive offense, Im sure they will tread lightly and go to their ground game in methodical fashion, as they carve out a game plan for an upset.

ATLANTA is 9-1 UNDER L/10 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season, dating back 3 seasons with a average combined score of 41.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. St.Louis was pounded 26-10 last week vs the Patriots in a game that stayed under the total, but what is more important is that when they are outgained by 150 or more yards, like they were last week, they have followed up with 6 straight unders, that have seen a combined total point output of just 32.8 ppg go on the score board.

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We have two teams the Green Bay Packers and the visiting Seattle Seahawks, both play strong defense this season. The Seahawks are the No.1 team in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 16.2 ppg and have gone under in 10 of their L/11 on the road, in non division NFC matches with a combined average score o 32.9 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Green Bay is ranked No.13 in overall D and they have gone under in 10 of their L/11 non division home games vs NC opposition with a combined average of 39.8 ppg going on the board. Both these teams have allowed 14 points or less in their L/2 games and Im betting both stand tall again on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
Seattle has gone under 5 straight times as road favorites and has gone under 9 of the L/10 times after allowing 7 points or less which happend last week. GB has gone under 6 straight times as a home dog of 6 points or less.
NFL Home teams against the total like GB - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8 plus games are 63-27 to the under for a 70%conversion rate.

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The Indy Colts and Houston Texans have a recent history of playing lower scoring affairs here in Indianapolis , with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 34.8 ppg. The Colts have also gone under in 19 of their L/23 division home games. Meanwhile, the Texans continue to struggle on offense,averaging 17.2 ppg overall and on the road have averaged just 13.2 ppg and scored 13 points last week, which from a trends perspective at least tells me they could struggle again, as they have gone under 6 straight times after putting 13 or less points on the board. The Texans only saving grace has been a decent D, that has allowed 21.4 ppg this season. In the Texans 6 road games this season they have combined to average 38.9 ppg. Im betting on another lower scoring game here this Sunday that remains on the low side of the number.
HC Pagano is 9-2 UNDER L/11 in home games versus division opponents with a combined average score of 35.7 ppg getting scored. HC O'Brien is 9-2 UNDER L/11 versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season with the average combined score clicking in at 35.7 ppg.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like the Colts - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game have gone under 28 of the L/35 times for a powerful 80% conversion rate for low total bettors.

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The Seahawks (7-3-1) and coming off another one of their boring and unmotivated  losses. This team just seems to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel against lower tier teams. The14-5 loss at Tampa Bay solidified their inconsistent mannerisms.   The good nws for us today is that Settles HC Carroll is 7-0 OVER L/7 in Seattle  home games after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points with the combined average of those games clicking in at 52.4 ppg. Seattle has also seen an average of 49.3 ppg go on the board at home against lower tier secondaries  like Carolinas, allowing 260 or more yards a game  Note: CAROLINA is 10-1 OVER L/10 vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att with a cmbined average of 62.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.SEATTLE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in home games after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. Meanwhile, Carolina, with a 4-7 record continues to flounder, mostly because of defensive lapses late in games, and their inability to hold leads. Condionting could be an issue , with their D, which is never a good omen in a league that has seen alot of late fourth quarter scoring this season. Last week after an early lead they lost to comeback kids Oakland by a 35-32 score. Carolinas HC Rivera is 15-4 OVER L/19 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average score of 54.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. CAROLINA is 20-8 OVER L/28 in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game.CAROLINA is 15-6 OVER L/21 in road games. Considering Carolinas current form from both a defensive and offensive standpoint another high scoring game is a good bet here. 

The Panthers are 13-0 OU since Ron Rivera became their coach in 2011 as a dog of more than six points with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 58.3 ppg. 

NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like the Seahawks- off 2 or more consecutive unders, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game have gone over 55 of the L/76 times for a league wide 70% conversion rate for over bettors.

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The Chargers enter this game playing alot of back forth games , with the home games being particularly high scoring with an average of 57.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. With Tampa Bays offense starting to click I can see them doing some damage offensively this week. I know that their D, looked good against Seattle last week, allowing just 5 points . But it must be noted that all non division road sides that allowed 6 points or less in a previous home game are 8-0 on the over in the proceeding game. Yes, I do know that TB scored just 14 points in that win, but non division pups off a SU/ATS win at home where they scored 14 or less points are 10-0-1 to the over dating back 8 seasons. TB is 8-0 over L/8 vs Chargers with a a combined average of 51.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

SAN DIEGO is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game this season with a combined average of 62.7 ppg getting scored.
NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like the Chargers - a top tier offensive team (27 PPG or more ppg ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games have gone over 29 of 27 times since 1983 for a 79% conversion rate.

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Dallas is third in the league in scoring, averaging 28.7 points per game, and is fifth in total offense with 407.6 yards and have proven they can light up the best of defenses. In their L/6 games they have scored, 30, 29,35,35,27, 31 points respectively. With that said, Im betting they do some damage offensively tonight, and Minnesota in turn will have no choice but to open up and reciprocate with some fireworks of their own. That can cause , turnovers, interceptions and more scoring chances which will help this total score eclipse the number. 

The Vikings are 14-0 OU on turf off a loss as a dog when they are a dog by a TD or less to a non-divisional opponent that has a better record with a combined average of 60.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. ( The lowest total combined score during this run was 46 pts)

MINNESOTA is 29-12 OVER L/41 vs. top tier passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the scoreboard. HC Garrett is 12-3 OVER L/15 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season with a combined average of 59.2 ppg getting scored. 

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Miami loves to pound the ball on the ground , while the 49ers have a horrendous time scoring. These two attributes will help keep this game on the low side of the number, in humid and soggy Miami today. 

MIAMI is 33-17 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game with a combined average of 40.5 ppg going on the scoreboard 21-8 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games with a average of 36.5 ppg going on the board.

NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Miami - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games has a 12-39 O/U mark attached to it. NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like the 49ers - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games have seen 74 of the L/98 games stay under for a potent 76% conversion rate. 

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Atlantas offense continues to be the top scoring unit in the league averaging 32 ppg. Meanwhile, Arizona's usually tough D, is getting smacked around of late, allowing 27 ppg in their L/3 overall.  The Falcons have gone over in all 4 of their home games this season with a combined average of 65.9 ppg going on the scoreboard. It must also be noted that when NFC South teams go against NFC West sides the games have eclipsed the number 16 of 20 times for a 80% conversion rate. 

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Cleveland's offense is a disaster scoring 10, 9 and 7 points respectively in their L/3 games. Scoring for the Browns will be a challenge once again this week vs a fairly consistent and decent Giants defense that is allowing an average of 19 ppg on  road. The Gmens offense averages 15.7 ppg on the road. As you can see futility is the name of this game, and score that remains on the low side of the Total is a strong probability and a good wager. 

NY GIANTS are 12-2 UNDER L/14 in road games vs. lower tier teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with a combined average of 32.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. CLEVELAND is 10-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season with an average of 36.4 ppg going on the board. NY GIANTS are 13-1 UNDER L/14 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points with an average of of 33.1 ppg getting scored.

NFL teams like Cleveland where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points  - after 5 or more consecutive losses, a lower tier  team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season have gone under 26 of the L/31 times for a 84% conversion rate. 

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My own numbers suggest this total should be closer to 51 giving us a cushion of 4 points, which qualifies under my data criteria for totals. I really don't think Rice's offense will have much luck moving the ball this week, while I expect Stanford to get up early and than coast in the 2nd half , using alot of younger guys, and 2nd and third string players, which will see a muted combined score go on the board. 

 Stanfords HC Shaw is 20-10 UNDER L/30 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 with an average of 48.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

College Football team against the total Rice  - after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games and 33-8 on the UNDER. 

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The Packers enter this game on a three game losing streak, thanks to a defense that looks broken as is evident by allowing an average of 37 ppg during their current losing run. Their L/3 games have seen a combined average of 64.66 ppg go on the scoreboard. Now going against a Washington Redskins side in top form offensively averaging 461 ypg in their L/4 another big time out point of points must be expected. The Skins have gone over in all 5 of their home games , dating back to last season and one more is on the way here.

WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER L/6 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) with a combined average of 57.2 ppg going on the board.GREEN BAY is 15-1 OVER L/16 in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games sin with an average of 54.1 ppg getting scored.

GREEN BAY is 16-5 OVER L/21 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season with a combined average of 58.7 ppg going on the scoreboard and 20-8 OVER L/28  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or better yards/play with a combined average of 56.2 ppg getting scored. 

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East Carolina's defense has been atrocious all season long, and in their L/7 games 6 , have been ugly as they have  given up 54,47, 38, 31, 45, and 55 points . Meanwhile, Navy has scored 46, 42, 45, 28, and 42 points in their L/6 tilts. Assuming things remain the same, another Navy output in mid 45 point range should be expected. Also considering how porous Navys D, can be at times I will not be surprised if E.Carolina which has improved offensively of late does not also put up at least 30 plus  points . Expectations here, give credence to this one going over the total. 

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Miami will come in here as visitors with an objective of slowing down the Chargers sometimes explosive offense, behind their running game via RB Ajayi. Everything the Fins do will based on eating up clock time and flow. This option could be buoyed by the Chargers new found running game behind Gordon. Smashem up old fashioned football on deck today.

MIAMI is 15-5 UNDER L/20 in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points.MIAMI is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored, which happened in a 27-23 win vs th Jets last week . SAN DIEGO is 11-3 UNDER L/14 after scoring 30 points or more last game with an average of 40.8 ppg going on the scoreboard which happened in a 43-35 win vs Tennessee last time out. 

The last 12 meetings in this series have  gone under with a combined average  of 34.8 combined ppg going on the scoreboard!

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Akron has an explosive aerial attack and Bowling Green has proved vulnerable in their secondary. Thus I expect Bowling Green will look to slow this game down by utilizing their run game, via very slow and methodical approach. The longer they stretch out the clock , the less flow the Zips offense will have. Note: Akrons run D,  ranks No. 116 nationally. Akron enters this game having gone under in 5 straight games.

AKRON is 14-2 UNDER  in home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. .250 or less .AKRON in their L/19 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 yards/play or more ypp, have seen an average combined score of 61.8 ppg go on the coreboard. Zips HC Bowden is 15-1 UNDER L/16 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses.Bowden is 12-1 UNDER L/13 off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival.Bowden is 11-1 UNDER L/12 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.Bowden is 17-3 L/20 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival.( None of the combined average scores of these games have eclipsed this current number)

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 The Packers offense is finally clicking on a ll cylinders, and now this week at home, they face the 29th ranked D with the Colts visiting. I know the total is high but rightly so. It must be noted that when a total is 51 or higher in a NFC non division game where the favs are playing hosts, the totals count to the over is 22-8 and are 9-1 over as 4 point or more chalk. Plus the Colts are now at near or full strentgh on offense as WRs Doresett, Moncrief, and Hilton are all back and healthy giving QB Andrew Luck a full array of talent to hit downfield. With a bye week on tap for the Colts I expect they will leave everyhting on the field. NFL road sides before their bye week are 22 -3 to the OVER when the Total is listed at 47 or more. The Colts are also 15-2 OVER in their L/17 road games up until week 12. This has also been a series that has seen some high scoring events with the L/6 meetings seeing an average of 62 ppg go on the scoreboard,

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