Last week  vs Texas Oklahoma State showed me two things. One their offence remains very viable and No.2 their defence is horrendous. This week against a under rated Kansas State offence Im betting they get torched and that they have no choice but to open up with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game i have projected to go over the total.  This line is actually as low as it is because of the lines-makers respect the Kansas State D esecially the secondary, and their propensity to eat cock time via a top tier run game, but the Cowboys can score against the best of defences. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points. Note: KANSAS ST is 57-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992 with the combined average score of 75.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 11-1 OVER  in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 season with a combined average of 79.5 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 OVER  vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75  or kore rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 89 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 70 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 85.4 ppg scored.

Oklahoma State is 15-0  OVER L/4 seasons at home when they allowed at least 28 points last game with the average combined score of 81.8 ppg going on the board. Every game surpassed todays total, with the smallest out put clicking in at 69 combined points. 

Play OVER 

California Bears quarterback Chase Garbers,  threw for four touchdowns and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in a big time performance.  QUOTE: “Chase was awesome. That’s the best game he has played; it’s not even close,” Cal coach Justin Wilcox told reporters. END QUOTE: I know California has a reputation for playing top tier D with Wilcox at the helm the last few seasons, but now with momentum on his side I look for Garbers to be cut loose and for the offence to begin to be more potent. Meanwhile, Arizona State , a fast improving offensive line that has two freshmen on board. This group is giving alot of protection Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels  who threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and allowed the Sun Devils to be dangerous with play option modules, senior wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who had nine receptions for 122 yards and a TD and  Eno Benjamin who  had 83 yards and two TDs via the ground attack. Both sides are recognized as defensive teams, but both offences are improving and Im betting on more points here than the lines makers are anticipating. Note:The Sun Devils have scored in double figures in 123 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the nation.

Over is 8-2 in Sun Devils last 10 Friday games.Over is 13-5 in Golden Bears last 18 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play OVER 

 Both Minnesota and Oakland are off losses last week after notching victories in week 1.

This week I expect the Vikings to come out with all guns blazing after suffering a loss to the Packers last week by a 21-15 count. Cousins the Vikings QB did not have a great performance last week, but here at home vs a Raiders’ defense that has allowed a 120.5 passer rating and that will be without safety Jonathan Abram, Im betting Cousins flourishes and puts a load of points and production on the board via play action based on RB Dalvin Cooks ability to open up the field with the run. He leads the NFL with 265 rushing yards . Im also expecting Raiders QB Derek Carr to do just enough damage to see this combined score eclipse the total. 

Over is 4-0-1 in Raiders last 5 games on fieldturf. Over is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL team against the total (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 61-24 OVER L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams like Oakland are  28-0 OVER L/28 as a 5 or more  point underdog on artificial turf when they are off a home loss and facing a non-divisional opponent that is allowing fewer than 22.8 ppg season-to-date, but had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time in their last contest.

Play OVER

Needless to say that these teams Notre Dame and Georgia are explosive offensively with Notre Dame averaging 50.5 ppg so far this season and Georgia producing 49.3 ppg overall. The last time these teams played Notre Dame came away with a 20-19 victory, but both these teams dynamics have changed since then and Im projecting an all out head to head slugfest in the rematch. First team to 40 wins. 

GEORGIA is 9-1 OVER  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored.

Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 8-3-2 in Bulldogs last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 16-7 in Fighting Irish last 23 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 15-5 in Fighting Irish last 20 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 Play on the OVER 

These teams took part in low scoring affairs last week so a lot of the public is jumping on the under here. However, Im betting on a different result. The Titans  and Jaguars  have  averaged 46.6 combined ppg in the last 7 meetings and a combined score in that range is on my projection charts for this tilt. 

 Division tilts  in week 3 of the reg season have gone 21-5 to the OVER when the Total  is set at 39 points or more.AFC South Division contests like this one   are 7-0 OVER  dating back 7 seasons  when the home side is a underdog  of 3or more  points.NFL home underdogs  have gone 17-4 OVER  dating back 11 seasons when both teams sides scored and allowed less than 20 points in their last game which was the case for both teams.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/TENNESSEE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 37-12 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Tulane is a fine team with a  under rated and  strong D, and  a grinding run game. Im betting these will both be on full display this Thursday night .  Im also  betting the Green Wave D, will limit Houstons explosive offence, and their run game will be dominate as the Cougars eat up plenty of click time. Meanwhile, Houston under HC Holgerson has implemented an extremely slow pace , so clock time will tick tick away in unison with Tulane's modus operandi which Im expecting to manifest in to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. 

TULANE is 13-4 UNDER  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more. rushing yards/carry. TULANE is 7-0 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. TULANE is 13-4 UNDER  after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Note: The combined average scores of these trends above did not exceed this current totals number.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (HOUSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive unders, quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Andy Reids explosive KC Cheifs jumped out of the shoot last week, with a 40-27 win at Jacksonville . But it must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 7 of their L/10 after putting 40 or more points on the board, thanks in part to the lines makers over adjusting because of recency bias.  Meanwhile, Oakland also won their first game 24-16 with good offensive management and a strong looking D. With the departure of Antonio Brown and a limited experienced WR group, Im expecting alot of short passes and clock burning running plays, to limit their output production vs what Im betting will be a more viable KC D this season.  Note: The Raiders  have gone under in back to back  division games and have gone under in 6 of their L/8 as 7 point or more home dogs. Under is 8-3-1 in Raiders last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Under is 6-1-1 in Raiders last 8 games following a straight up win.

OAKLAND is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 11-2 UNDER  versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 21-9 UNDER  in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.4 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (OAKLAND) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 89-42 L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

These long time rivals Washington and Dallas saw alot of yards get accumulated in their week 1 games. The Redskins combined for 834 combined yards, and the Cowboys combined for a whopping 964 combined yards. Im betting on more of the same non stop action this week when these teams go Helmut to Helmut. Note:These teams in their L/7 meetings  have seen a combined average of   51.4 ppg go on the board with 6 of the 7 games eclipsing the total. 

Gruden is 7-0 OVER after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the scoreboard.

All game 2  NFL road favorites who scored 35 or more pts in Game One like Dallas have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER dating back 10 seasons! 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (WASHINGTON) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in conference games are 45-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the first month of the season are 68-34 OVER L/36 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Last week, Georgia State trailed 20-3 to  Furman of the FCS in the second quarter, but quarterback Dan Ellington and the Panther offense exploded with a 48-42 victory. Im expecting Ellington and company to keep trucking here today. Meanwhile,  the Western Michigan Broncos defense was completely destroyed by a usually impotent Mich State Spartan offense last week allowing just under 200 yards receiving and rushing to two individual players. Since last season  new DC Lou Esposito has allowed   opponent to  score six touchdowns in 4 of 6 games. Everything points to his being a block buster affair with crap defence as the feature. 

Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 7-0-1 in Broncos last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games on fieldturf.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. S-Belt.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.Over is 15-5 in Broncos last 20 home games.Over is 34-12-1 in Broncos last 47 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 road games.Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games on fieldturf.

Play OVER

Im betting  Georgia Southern option attack will grind this clock down quickly, while Minnesota behind their running game and big Oline will do the same. 

Under is 9-3 in Eagles last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 non-conference games.Under is 13-6 in Eagles last 19 games following a straight up win. Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in September.

Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games overall.Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 home games

Play UNDER 

Kansas State comes into Starkville with a top 10 defense and wont be easily intimidated . On offence the Wildcats are a run first type of team, and because of this alot of clock time will be eaten up and quickly. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than many might think on what has become a bloated total since being released. 

KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER  after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 7-0 UNDER   after playing a game at home over the last 2 season with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - excellent rushing team (230 or more  RY/G) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Cougars  used to be a fast paced team  (No. 1 in seconds per play last season) but  now under new coach Dana Holgorsen  the pace has slowed alot .Houston ranks 100th of 130 FBS teams in plays per second at 28.4 and bleeding the clock Im betting will be on full display for Houston tonight.  I know Washington State can score in bunches behind a strong passing game, but Houston has shown flashes of brilliance in their secondary already thiss season and are capable of slowing down the visitors attack tonight in a game I pegged to stay on the low side of what is a bloated total based on past assumptions . 

HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (WASH ST/HOUSTON) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) are 46-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams lost their opening games, but it must be noted that  during the L/6 seasons the UNDER is 9-1 in all Game 2s with  home  favorites of 3  or more points when both sides  are coming  off a SU loss . Note: Both teams we blasted for 31 and 30 points respectively which makes for a recency bias on this total.  Note:  During the 2018 campaign, the UNDER was dominant  cashing 12 of 13 times when both teams gave up m 30 or more  pts   in their previous game, when the Total is within the parameters of 42 to 53 points. Carolina is also 3-21 under L/24 as division home chalk and have gone under 3 straight times after allowing 30 or more points. 

TB has gone under in 9 of their L/11 as 6 or more point dogs. 

t must be noted that Bruce AriansTB QB guru is getting set to help out his talented QB Winston cut down on turnovers and realize his potential as the No. 1 overall pick from the 2015 draft  by running the ball more effectively.With second-year pro Ronald Jones II leading the way, Tampa Bay rushed for 121 yards in last week's loss and will once again be utilized to make this into a grinding type affair vs a Carolina team that has proven itself less than explosive over the last few seasons. 

These two teams have gone under 5 of the L/6 times they have met . Average  Totals line: 49. The Average combined points  per game clicked in at 39.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER

This might seem like a public leaning total , but according to my projections this combined score  here this Monday night between the Texans and their hosts the explosive Saints should breach this number. Note: Brees has thrown 37 scoring passes in 17 career Kickoff Weekend games, the most of any quarterback. I expect the Saints to light the scoreboard up here tonight and for the Texans to have no choice but to open things up behind  quarterback Deshaun Watson, the first player to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 500 yards and five scores in a season and  respond with some fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total.

The Saints are 4-0-1 OVER L/5 games on turf on Monday night dating back 5 seasons with a combined average score eclipsing the total by more than 10 ppg. 

Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games in Week 1.

Play OVER 

Bucs defense allowed 29 ppg last season and Im not expecting a miraculous bounce back season even though Bruce Arians is now  on board. The lousy pass rush wont be able to challenge ,Jimmy Garoppolo and Im betting the now healthy QB will smash a still susceptible secondary. Meanwhile, James Winston despite of being highly inconsistent is a very capable passer, and he will be up the challenge here on the road this week, behind a speedy group of wide receivers. 

Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games in September.Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games in September.  TB 8-2 OVER as fav/dog 3 or less. 

Play OVER 

No Andrew Luck at QB for the Indianapolis Colts, no problem. With a revamped offence engineered by offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni, and a offensive line that is uptrending, the interim QBs should do just fine and points production should not be the problem many pundits might anticipate. Players like RB  Marlon Mack  who rushed for 900  yards and nine touchdowns last season and , T.Y. Hilton  who produced 1,200 receiving yards in 14 games, and tight end Eric Ebron led all NFL tight ends with 13 touchdowns is an explosive group who can do lots of damage and quickly. The Colts D, is still a work in progress, so they may also allow a fair amount of points and will need to be a pedal to the metal type offensive side to be competitive. Meanwhile, Chargers star QB Phillip Rivers will continue to put points on the board, especially with targets like receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the fold. Today against a susceptible Colts secondary this Im betting will become obvious, and will overall help us see a combined score that goes over the total. 

Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in Week 1Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in September.Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in Week 1.

Play OVER

The Seahawks were the NFL’s top rushing team last season, averaging 160 yards a contest and Im betting they will just explosive this season which will set up their passing  game behind the arm of Russell Wilson  and an over all increase in ppg production. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati  Bengals were smashed  for 137.8 rushing yards a game last season, and I expect there will be no immediate fixes for their defensive issues be a broken damn. The Bengals only saving grace will be the big red machine QB  Andy Dalton who can be dangerous when in a groove. Im expecting Dalton to be very impactful here in new HC Taylor new offensive schemes. 

Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games in September. Over is 4-1-1 in Bengals last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 7-2 in Bengals last 9 games in Week 1.

Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Carroll is 27-11 OVER in non-conference games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The high octane offence of the KC Chiefs behind phenom Patrick Mahomes comes into the heat and humidity of Jacksonville this Sunday in a game that I have pegged to stay on the low side of a public leaning total. Im betting Jacksonville has had sufficient time to study this explosive group, and behind a top tier D, will slow the Chiefs here ( at least enough to keep their Chiefs output to reasonable levels). Meanwhile, Im also betting it will take time for the Jags,   to  jell offensively, thanks to their new parts, (QB Nick Foles)  and for the Chiefs D, to be much improved over last seasons hands off version. ( Changed form a 3-4 to 4-3 scheme) Add to that a muggy Sunday environment we have a more methodical game than many might expect and a lower combined score than the public is counting on. 

The Jags  L/13   home  games since the 2017 season,  have seen them allow  an average of just 12.7 points per game and their offence has average just 19.9 points per game. 

Reid is 12-4 UNDER against AFC South division opponents as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 43 ppg going on the board.Reid in 74 games  as a favorite as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average score of 45.1 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games.Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games overall.Under is 16-7 in Jaguars last 23 vs. AFC.

Play on the UNDER 

The Panthers have gone  UNDER in their in their last 7 opening games of a NFL season going under the number by 14 ppg and we all know how conservative this team is out of the gate and overall general terms. I know they will face an explosive offence here today, but last season the Rams played much more conservatively on the road then at home, going under in their L/5 road games, and Im betting that trend continues here today as they make the long arduous trip from the west coast to the east coast. It must be noted that week one none division road chalk of -2 or more  are 4-24-1 UNDER  dating back 20 seasons .

These teams have gone under in 5 of their L/6 meetings with a combined average of 30.2 ppg going on the board and another lower scoring game will be on todays agenda according to my projections .

The Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 away with a 50 or more point total. The rams have the Saints up next week ( 0-7 UNDER L/7before the Saints). Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 as road favs -2 or more. 

Panthers have gone under in 6 of their L/7 with a total of 48 or more.

Play UNDER

The Vols 38-30 loss to a Georgia State team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference was as shocking to say the least, and had the added bonus of showing me how bad their defence was going to be this season.Defensively, the Vols  struggled against Georgia States option attack as quarterback Dan Ellington made the Vols look less than mortal. Im betting BYU quarterback Zach Wilson who is  also mobile will do the same , which  will inflict more damage on a  injury plagued and struggling Vols defensive line. Needless to say Im betting BYU lights up the board here, while Tennessee will fire back with wreck-less abandon as they look for some kind spark from their offence. This Im also betting will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

Over is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. .

Play OVER 

Pitts young  OL  vs UVA last week was struggling, as 4 new starters gave up 4 sacks and Panthers gained only 263 total yards, but somehow still found a way to put 14 points on the board vs a very tough Virginia squad . This week Im betting the Panthers find ways to do some offensive damage this week, vs a Ohio  HC Solich side that does not have a reputation for staunch defences. Yes the secondary is experienced but, its not like they have shown much in the recent past. Meanwhile, Ohio is an explosive offensive group, behind the lethal  Nathan Rourke who remains one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Im betting the power run game of the Bobcats  vs the weakness of the rush D of Pitt opens up this game for the pass game and mucho points go on the board in a tilt that Im betting eclipses the total. 

Note: Ohios FCS  opponent Rhode Island put 21 points on the board last week and Pitt is more than capable of eclipsing that number. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 85-43 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The public seems to love this game to go over , but the public has a tendency to not delve to deeply into statistical data and trends. 

In preseason the Packers did not play their star QB Rodgers as well as two other key offensive weapons Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams so Im betting  it will take some time for the Packers to become cohesive offensively here tonight , especially considering they will be facing a Chicago Bears team that was first in weighted D last season, ranking first in pass efficiency and 2nd and run efficiency. Meanwhile, the Packers Defence, was upgraded in the off season, using their first two round picks to pick up  linebacker Rashan Gary and safety Darnell Savage, and then also acquiring free-agent linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith to bolster a tough hard nosed group. Im expecting barring injuries for the Packers D to be stringent this season and tonight.

Considering Bears QB Trubisky is getting a reputation for being sloppy with the ball , his play calling maybe limited by the coaches, and a more conservative game 1 plan could be in the cards. Note: The Bears offence ranked 30th in the league in pace last season, so "slow as she goes" could once be the mantra here tonight. 

Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games on a natural surface.Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC.

The L/10 times these teams have met the average combined score has in clicked in at 44.9 ppg. Bears home games have gone under 58% of the time since the 2016 campaign. Nagy in 6 games versus division opponents as the coach of CHICAGO has seen a combined average score of 43.7 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CHICAGO) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 53-22  UNDER since 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Scott Satterfield new era at Louisville will be tested when he  steps onto the field against Notre Dame with the most talented team overall he’s had in his coaching career. Admittedly Louisville . is a broken football program, that self disintegrated over the last few seasons and now has to be cautious moving forward. That Im betting is the game plan today vs a explosive Notre Dame fighting Irish team. The Cardinal have been a mistake prone team lacking discipline , but that is something the new head coach wont tolerate. Quote:“I can’t stand sloppy play. I can’t stand it,” Satterfield said during Monday’s press conference with the media. Im also betting that Louisville wont turn over the ball as much here , after ranking 126th in the nation last season. All and all Im backing the idea that Satterfilelds group keeps it simple , which Im betting makes for more of snail pace than many might believe is possible, which gives credence to my under wager recommendation here tonight. 

Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 non-conference gamesUnder is 7-3 in Fighting Irish last 10 games on fieldturf.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams met in the 2016 opener, and No. 15 Houston pulled a 33-23 stunner over the third-ranked Sooners. Oklahoma eventually won the Big 12 and beat Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, but the Sooners missed out on the playoff for the only time in the past four seasons.

Tonight in a game the public has pegged as a super shoot out, Im betting we have value with the under. Both offenses will once again be explosive. However, I am expecting the Sooners off season hiring of Alex Grinch from Ohio State to help the Sooners D immensely  .It must be noted that when he was with the Washington State Cougars of the PAC12 he knew very well how to handle that pass heavy conference. Meanwhile, Houston despite of still having a a capable attack, will still see a head coach Dana Holgorsen who in the past used pocket passers to move the ball efficiently. None of his previous QBS however were like  D’Eriq King  behind the 2nd adjusted pace. At W.Virginia they had a adjusted pace of 48th so there is a difference here that the Sooners new D could take advantage of, and subsequently slow down as this game progresses behind what will be a more aggressive pressure defence. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OKLAHOMA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (HOUSTON) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 40-13 UNDER UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Im betting Fresno States D, remains their strong point, and that their 25 game streak of holding opponents to 30 points or less remains intact. Meanwhile, look for USCs core of 4 and 5 star recruits on D, to stand tall and limit Fresno States offence to a minimal output . Early on in the season Defences have an edge on offences and that gives me credence in my under projection here in game 1 for both teams in this non conference battle. 

FRESNO ST is 7-0 UNDER in road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg going on the board. FRESNO ST is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

USC is 18-6 L/24 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 with a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

The weather forecast in Hawaii is calling for hefty winds that are being estimated at   14 mph  for the entire course  of the game with nasty Gusts   30 mph expected. It must also be noted that despite of having star QB at the helm of the Hawaii offence, in Junior QB Cole McDonald , the coordinators do not run a speed formation, and it is methodical in nature. Meanwhile, Arizona with Khalil Tate  back at QB, and J.J. Taylor returning at RB after a 1,434-yard season that ranked 6th nationally will once again focus on their ground attack to move the chains which will eat up precious clock time. Im liking the under here in this Paradise Island game between a PAC 12 opponent and MWC foe.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARIZONA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 35-11 L/seasons for a 76% conversion rate! 

Play on the UNDER 

 Future HOF QB Tom Brady,  , threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers last week to advance to the championship game  and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs when they played back in October. Im betting on the Pats doing a boat load full of damage again, and for the KC Chiefs behind the best young arm in football Patrick Mahomes to also light up the board in a game I have pegged to go over the number. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

In game theory, an outcome is a situation which results from a combination of player's strategies. Every combination of strategies (one for each player) is an outcome of the game. A primary purpose of game theory is to determine which outcomes are stable according to a solution concept. Thus usually the most likely explanation and most likely scenario is the most likely outcome. 

 Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (27 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25  or less turnovers/game committed) are 68-30 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

My projections estimate 62 combined points going on the board or more.

Play on the OVER 

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Alot of pundits were concerned with the way the Eagles defence played this season, but in their L/2 staunch physical efforts they shut out their opponent in their final  regular season game , and then allowed a strong Bears team to score just 15 points last weekin their Wild Card affair . Im betting Phillies under rated D stands tall  again against, a New Orleans offence that actually struggled quite bit at the end of the season procuring 14 points or less in 3 of their L/5 games. This I expect will see a much lower scoring affair then lines-makers and public are expecting. 

Note: I know the Saints walloped the Eagles back in November putting 48 pints on the board, but the defending champs learned alot about their opponents offence that day and will be ready for a much better effort in the rematch. 

NFL Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season like Philadelphia  are 0-27-1 UNDER  by an average  9.96 ppg when playing their second straight road game with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored. Note: PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after allowing 30 points or more last game are 42-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama and Clemson can score against the best of defences, behind two of college football best QBs, Trevor Lawrence of the Tigers and the Crimson Tides Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, both these football teams  have top tier defences, but unlike last season Alabama's 24-6 victory vs the Tigers in the play offs last season, this time around Im betting the points will come fast and furious between these two behemoth opponents. ***( Field conditions are expected to be  good here in Santa Clara with all new turf in place)

Clemson has averaged 44.3 ppg on offence this season while Alabama has averaged 47.7 ppg.

ALABAMA is 7-0 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63 this season with a. combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

HC Swinney  in his L/19 road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of CLEMSON has seen a combined average of 64.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

Washington is a defence first team that will try to grind this clock down n methodical fashion vs an explosive Ohio State football team. Im betting they have enough success eating clock time to help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

Washington's HC Petersen is 13-4 UNDER vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games

WASHINGTON is 7-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 38.3 ppg. 

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (OHIO ST) - excellent offensive team (440 YPG or more) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games 35-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (WASHINGTON) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 39-12 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Kentucky plays a less conservative style of football in non non conference games, and have gone over 4 straight times vs non conference opponents and Im betting they open up here a bit this Tuesday and a game that Im betting will go over the total. 

Penn States HC Franklin is 9-1 OVER in games played on a neutral field in all games he has coached with a combined average of 62.8 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Nittany Lions last 5 non-conference games.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 neutral site games.Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 10-3 in Nittany Lions last 13 games following a straight up win.Over is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 20-7 in Nittany Lions last 27 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 games following a ATS win.Over is 13-6 in Nittany Lions last 19 games overall.

PENN ST is 9-1 OVER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 66.6 ppg. PENN ST is 10-0 OVER  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.2 ppg. PENN ST is 6-0 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 58.9 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KENTUCKY/PENN ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 29-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

TAXSLAYER BOWL - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Aggies are a physical team that can both run the ball well, and stop opposing run games. Im betting they make NC State one dimensional via the pass, which will make them easier to read. Meanwhile,  they themselves will pound the ball relentlessly on the ground, which will make for fast game that eats clock and keeps the total combined score on the low side of the number. 

NC STATE is 11-2 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.6 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NC STATE) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored are 77-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (TEXAS A&M) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 42-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

HOLIDAY BOWL - SDCCU Stadium - San Diego, CA

The Northwestern offense, has struggled at times this season, but they are still capable doing some damage here vs a top tier D.  Northwestern Im betting will have a lot more 3 and outs then first downs and will spend alot of time on the field defending a underrated Utah offence that has proved explosive at times this season, scoring more than 40 points 4 straight times, at one juncture of the season while averaging 37.7 ppg over a 8 game stretch. With that said, my projections estimate that the Utes put upwards of 30 points on the board, while Northwestern hits in the low 20s , in a game I have pegged to exceed the total. 

HC Whittingham in 18 games  versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 61.1 ppg were scored and I his L/29 games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread has seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored

.Play OVER 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

This total has been bet up since its opening with sharp money but still holds value even at this number to the over according to my own projections. 

Missouri is an explosive offensive side having averaged 36.9 ppg this season, while Oklahoma State has averaged 38.4 ppg.  Both defences have been less than spectacular with OK St allowing 34.6 ppg on the road, while Missouri has allowed 29.4 ppg. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.2 ppg scored and is 8-1 OVER after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 77.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Pitt found its identity in a bruising rushing attack that leaned on the explosiveness of senior running backs Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall and nothing will change today as they will move the chains via their ground attack and eat up alot of clock time in the process. Meanwhile, Stanford is a one dimensional team that throws the majority of the time, and among all 129 FBS teams, only Washington State had fewer rushing attempts this season than Stanford. With no Bryce Love in the lineup today, as he sits out preparing for a NFL career, the Cardinal will be easy to read and their ability to go vertical will be a challenge, as well as getting points on the board.With that said, Im betting on this combined score not to eclipse this total. 


PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 14-4 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.2 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.

STANFORD is 19-8 UNDER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a . combined average of 47 ppg scored.



CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (STANFORD) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 40-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 46.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER ( Late Steam)

This game involving the Indianapolis Colts (9-6)  and their hosts the  Tennessee Titans (9-6) highlights a situation where which ever team wins goes to the play offs and the other to no no land. Im expecting a conservative game from both sides.

 Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a UNDECIDED this week after leaving his  Week 16 win vs Washington with a  nagging  neck-elbow injury that has bothered him all season long. If he plays he will be less then 100% and  if  his  below average backup Blaine Gabbert  gets the call.Either way   Im expecting HC Vrabel to be conservative in his approach to this important game and mainly use the ground game to move the chains in an effort to keep Andrew Luck off the field for long chunks of time and get him out of his flow.  

 The Colts coach Frank Reich’s teams usually grind along with their opponents in games like this and look for the big play somewhere along the way. It must also be noted that the Colts in the past when they go against a  team that averages more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game and the total is less than 50,   they have gone under 14-straight straight times .

INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 pig scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 13-2 UNDER  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Oklahoma has a record-setting quarterback too, in Kyler Murray. The Sooners led the FBS in scoring offense with 49.5 points per game and are capable of lighting up anyone including this tough Alabama D. Oklahoma, however, ranked No. 96 in scoring defense (32.4). With the Tie equally explosive in my humble opinion, the only way the  Sooners  have any chance of winning or being competitive in  this tilt is for this to be a shootout. Which Im betting it will be.  Both Alabama and Oklahomas QBs do a lot of damage right out of the gate. Tagovailoa, has a 207.3 passer rating with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in the first half and Murray,   has also been  explosive in the first half, this season with a 215.2 passer rating, 25 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Meanwhile, Oklahoma, ranked No. 13 in red zone offense and scored 42 touchdowns in 63 visits. Alabama scored 48 touchdowns in 68 red zone visits. This has the making of an epic high scoring battle, and the total is not high enough. 

OKLAHOMA is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 95.5 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 105.6 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA is 21-9 OVER L/30 when the total is greater than or equal to 70   with a combined average of 83.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

West Virginia quarterback Will Grier will not participate in the Camping World Bowl against Syracuse as he begins preparing for the 2019 NFL draft. Thus we have a situation where Im betting this total is just to high. 

SYRACUSE is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons, which happened in their last game of the reg season.SYRACUSE is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in road games in games. 

Play UNDER 

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Both these teams have solid defences, but when they played last year in this Bowl game the Badgers won 34 to 24 vs Miami Fl, and Im expecting a similar scoring output this time around by both sides.

Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Over is 10-3 in Badgers last 13 games following a ATS loss.Over is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 18-7-1 in Badgers last 26 games following a straight up loss.Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games in December.

Over is 10-2-1 in Badgers last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MIAMI) - off a win against a conference rival, in December games are 43-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

INDEPENDENCE BOWl - Independence Stadium - Shrevport, LA

Temple has put alot point son the board this season, but Duke's a team that has shown some strong  D ,  and is capable of slowing them. Meanwhile, Duke 's offence has really struggled coming into this game, scoring 6 and 7 points in back to back games and now vs a staunch Temple D, their output Im betting will once again be muted.

DUKE is 7-0 UNDER  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 40 ppg scored and 7-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored and is 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 season with a combined average score of 43.3 ppg scored.DUKE is 7-0 UNDER L/7 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored.

TEMPLE is 16-3 UNDER after allowing 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 44.2 ppg going on the board. 

Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEMPLE) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 39-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

 QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

Georgia Techs option offense that leads the nation in rushing will pound the ball continuously today against.ground today. Meanwhile, Minnesota, via a more traditional run game will also pound the ball on the ground all day . With that said, Im betting this is going to be a very fast Bowl game that eats alot of clock time . This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Johnson is 14-3 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of GEORGIA TECH with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 games in December.Under is 6-2 in Golden Gophers last 8 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 6-2 in Yellow Jackets last 8 bowl games.Under is 5-2 in Yellow Jackets last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (GEORGIA TECH) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 41-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL - Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Buffalo lost the MAC championship in heart breaking fashion vs N.Illinois (30-29) , and Im betting will still be feeling the effects of that  today vs Troy, which will make for a less than spirited effort from the Bulls. I know Buffalo's Tyree Jackson is extremely talented , but the quarterbacks pocket coverage from his line has been shoddy at times this season. In the Bulls’defeat vs Army, Jackson was 10 of 24 for just 152 yards.    Troy is another hard nosed team , that owns the nation’s 23rd-ranked scoring defense allowing just  (21.2 points per game) and not allowed any of their last opponents more than 21 points and  Im betting Buffalo struggles to score consistently in this one. Meanwhile, I also expect Buffalos much abused secondary to stand tall here, with a month to prepare for this game and for Troy to end up running the ball alot more than expected as this tilt progresses, helping this score stay on the low side of the Total. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TROY is 10-2 UNDER after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

Play UNDER 

ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 Army via their triple option can grind away at the clock and will take their time doing it vs an explosive Houston team. This will be an attempt to take the Cougars out of their  offensive flow.  Much in the way the Cadets did vs Oklahoma ( 28-21 loss in OT) .With that said look for and expect a combined score that stays on the low side of the number. ARMY is 12-2 UNDER in road games against American Athletic conference opponents with a combined average of  43.7 ppg going on the board.ARMY is 8-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

BIRMINGHAM BOWL - Legion Field - Birmingham, AL

We all know how many points Memphis can put on the board behind an explosive offence, and how many they can allow behind an atrocious defense. Wake Forest also knows about the freight train coming their way, because their on the proverbial train track as the Tigers come chugging right for them. So what do you do when something like that heads your way. You of course naturally get out of their way and avert them. Thus what Im betting happens here this week, is that the Demon Deacons will implement a run attack that eats this clock up as much as possible as to circumvent the Tigers flow, and throw them out of whack. Being off for almost a month will also see these offenses get out of the gate slowly and for fewer points than expected to go on the board. 

WAKE FOREST is 31-16 UNDER L/47 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 21-9 UNDER  after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored.

key injury updates:[WR] 12/15/2018 - Greg Dortch is "?" Saturday vs Memphis ( Finger )QB] 11/05/2018 - Sam Hartman is out for season ( Leg )

[RB] 12/12/2018 - Darrell Henderson is OUT Saturday vs Wake Forest ( None ) He is Memphis best player and sets up the option well. 

Play on the UNDER 

GASPARILLA BOWL - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

USF struggled in the 2nd half of the season trying to stop the run and Im betting Marshall comes at them with their ground game. Meanwhile,USF  don't run the ball well, which is not a good omen for moving the chains as their  offensive line  should really find the going  tough day against an over powering Herd pass rush. When the MU defensive front is rested and fresh, the sacks come in bunches as was evident this season as they recorded three or more seven times. The Bulls have also allowed 34 sacks on the year. With Marshall expected the run the ball a great deal today and USF struggling to throw or run, points Im betting will be limited in this slower then expected game that eats up clock time in a hurry. 

Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 Bowl games.Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 bowl game.

Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games on grass. Under is 9-3 in Bulls last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 home games.Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 Thursday games.Under is 17-7-1 in Bulls last 25 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 21-9-1 in Bulls last 31 games following a straight up loss.

S FLORIDA is 15-4 UNDER  after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored.. 

Play UNDER 

The Saints clinched a division title last week, and  Im betting will now be in a letdown situation that will see their attack muted. Meanwhile, I expect Carolina to play a more grinding clock consuming style of football in an attempt to slow and take the flow away from what has been a dynamic offence this season. This combination of projected occurrences  Im also betting will be responsible for a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

CAROLINA is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games with a combined average of 41.3 ppg going on he board. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.1 ppg.

Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 road games.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-3 in Panthers last 11 games in Week 15.Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in December.Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.

  NFL  team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - after a 2 game road trip, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 61-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Game time temp is expected be a frigid 39 degrees this Thursday night in KC with moderate wind that will go across the field and could easily effect the fluidity of this game. The visiting  Chargers Im betting will very vigilant and conservative in their approach vs an explosive KC team here this Thursday night. QUOTE: "I think our guys have to be in tune for (big plays)," Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "Because every play you have to be ready because it could be the one." END QUOTE:  The Chargers learned alot about KCs offence in a. 38-28 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season, and will be better prepared this time around Mahomes and company down. Note: Chargers coach Anthony Lynn is well aware of Mahomes' ability. Both of them went to Texas Tech, and Lynn said he had many conversations with former Red Raiders coach Kliff Kingsbury about the 23-year-old. With that said, Im betting we get a much more muted total score than the public might anticipate. 

LA CHARGERS is 10-1 UNDER  vs. sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.2 ppg going on the board.The Chargers  have gone under 8 straight times as a dog off a home game in which they had zero turnovers.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.9 ppg going on the board. 

The Chiefs are 0-12 UNDER since 2016 at home off a win in which they outgained their opponent.KANSAS CITY is 9-0 UNDER  in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored and is 9-1 UNDER  in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg. 

The Chiefs  have gone UNDER 16 straight times as a home favorite after they had at least 3 more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average last game with the combined average score of 35.2 ppg scored, the highest combined score clicked in at 53, and the lowest at 16 points. 

NFL Road teams against the total (LA CHARGERS) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorites are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Seattle has been taking part in some back and forth fairly high scoring affairs of late, but Pete Carrol has voiced concern about his D, and especially about the young secondary, and will be concentrating on making sure break downs are kept under control vs the visiting Vikings tonight. Meanwhile, Minnesota remains a defence first team, with a methodical hard nosed old school approach , and should once again be ready to bang and grind tonight in a game that I have pegged to stay under the total. The overall assessment comes from my own power rankings system that uses a system vs system projections. Those estimations points to a combined score that hits in the low 40s ,thus giving us value on the offered number.

Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 Monday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

MINNESOTA is 15-6 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.SEATTLE is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average score of 28.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 31-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 48-18 UNDER L/35 seasons 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

The Panthers QB Cam Newton is throwing alot of interceptions of late, and now this week I expect the Panthers to go to the ground a great deal and play hard fought defensive brand of physical football. It must be noted that Cleveland has gone UNDER 14 straight times when they are off a road game and facing a non-divisional opponent that has endured  a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, as long as they are not getting more than TD.The  Browns are  also 0-20 to the UNDER at home off an ATS loss by more than five points when they are facing a side that is under .600 on the season and they are not more than a FG favorite. Im expecting this to be a hard part affair that stays on the low side of the Total.

Panthers are 1-5 O/U vs NFC South and 1-4 O/U L5 non-conference  home game. The L/4 meetings in this series have seem a combined average of 32 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER L/19 against NFC South division opponents with a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored.Williams is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 These two teams are struggling despite of having very talented QBS. Green Bay has struggled so much they fired their long time coach McCarthy.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight. The quarterback matchup will be in the spotlight and Im betting will produce some offensive fireworks, as both teams look to blast off and out of their slumps with aggressive actions. It must be noted  the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's numbers do match his teams record as he has  completed 70.9 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 109.3 rating. Meanwhile, Rodgers considered one of the leagues top pivots is also  a streaky QB, but could explode and go at a run at any time . But from a historical standpoint one can see how talented he is by looking at how accurate and instinctive s he has been in his career having  thrown 336 consecutive passes without being picked off and is closing in on Tom Brady's NFL-record 358 record.

GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in December.Over is 21-7 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The last 3 meetings in this series have seen a combined  (67.3 ppg ) go on the board. 

Play OVER 

Eastern Washington hosts UC Davis on Saturday with a spot in the FCS Playoffs semifinals.These two teams met less than a month ago in a game that saw Eastern emerge with a 59-20 victory. So now theirs an inclination for public bettors to look at the over here as viable wager. In my usual contrarian fashion, I think this total is bloated and that we have value wth an under wager here according to my projections even though both these teams have prolific  offensive attacks. I do expect to see a lot more from the ground game from UC Davis in this rematch as they try to slow E.Washington down. On paper it looks like a shootout, but from a strategy perspective a more muted methodical and targeted effort from both sides won't come as a surprise. 

Play UNDER 

 When Military Football Academies get together to play (Air Force, Navy, Army), points and offence are always lacking in what almost always results in a low scoring game . Its usually a war in the trenches, in what  is a take no prisoners physical confrontation. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE Im betting is on todays agenda. The UNDER is 32-8-1 for a 80% conversion rate since 2006. 

Play UNDER 

Maine Black Bears visit Weber State on Friday night in a key FCS play off tilt. These are two tough defensive teams. Maine allows 21.6 points per game (Weber State allows 21.0). Weber's rushing attack of Josh Davis and Treshawn Garrett  are a key mode of moving the chains  but will have tough sledding; Maine allows just 74.5 ground yards per contest, second-best in the country, and 295.3 per game overall. Im expecting a very physical affair played in cold temps today, and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

Play UNDER 

  The Minnesota Vikings enter this game ranked No. 10 in defence  and up trending as they have allowed 255 YPG and an average of  just 17 ppg in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Meanwhile,  New England’s ranks No. 11 ranked defence has allowed only 17.5 PPG in their last four games overall. 

Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games on fieldturf.

Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games in December.Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games on fieldturf.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen average of 39.5 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in December games are 41-16 UNDERL/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a 2 game road trip, in December games are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

These teams have played some low scoring games of late with the last meeting in early November seeing Boise State win a 24-17 squeaker . But now in contrarian fashion Im betting we see a significant uptick in point production this time around behind  teams  that boasted top-25 scoring offenses this season. In the last game scoring chances  effected the total score as the  Bulldogs' last two drives ended with a blocked field goals and a fourth-down incompletion after they reached the Boise State 23-yard line with 1:18 remaining.

Fresno State senior Marcus McMaryion has completed 258-of-366 passes for 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he is ranked No. 7 in passing efficiency. Boise Senior Rypien has completed 286-of-416 passes for 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he is ranked No. 11 in the FBS in passing efficiency. He set Mountain West career records for passing yards completions in the earlier victory over Fresno State, and he had his league-record 21st 300-yard passing with 310 against Utah State. Look for these two guys to shine here today, and for a  much different type of game than the public are anticipating. 

Boise State in their L/63 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game since 1992 have seen a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored and in their L/59  tilts  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game have seen a combined average of 64.3 ppg go on the board. 

Play OVER 

Marshalls D, has been stingy this season allowing an average of 20.3 ppg, while VTech has had problems consistently putting points on the board as is evident by scoring 23 or less points in 5 of their L/7 games overall. This game has some significance for the Hokies as they need it to have change for a Bowl invite, while Marshall has a Bowl invite all ready in their back pocket, and are just playing spoilers here today. Look for these two Virginia/West Virginia rivals. to g head to head in a hard fought lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the number. 

CFB team against the total (VIRGINIA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 26-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored.

Virginia Tech has gone under11 straight times when com-ing off a win where they threw for less than 200 yards with no score in the subset going over the 51 point plateau. 

Play UNDER 

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Ford Field - Detroit, M

The Bulls (10-2, 7-1 MAC) won the MAC East Division title Friday with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green, and face Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-2) for the MAC championship. My own projections make this opening total just to low.We all know N.Illinois is a defence first team, but to beat Buffalo they are going to have to score. With that said, Im on the over here out of the gate.

I have Buffalo scoring 27+ points and N.Illinois scoring 24+ points. BUFFALO in 12  road games when they score 22 to 28 have seen a combined average of 56.7 ppg go on the board. 

N.Illinois in their L/33 November games have seen a combined average score of 59.5 ppg go on the board. 

 Play on the OVER 

Minnesota must go to the pass game alot as their run game ranks 31st in the league in rushing, averaging 84.7 yards per game. It must noted that GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with an average of 51.3 ppg scored. on the flip side the Vikings secondary has been struggling, which is a sign of a high scoring tilt as GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored. Finally GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons., with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board.


GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.7 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 44-17 OVER L/35 years. for a 72% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on OVER

Giants rookie running back Saquon Barkley had a big day vs  the Eagles with 130 yards on the ground and 99 yards receiving in the first meeting this season, and I now expect the GMen to go back to what worked in the first time these teams met and go to the ground attack constantly here today which will eat time on the clock. Yes, last week Eli Manning had a big day, but he is one of footballs most inconsistent QBs, and don't be surprised if struggles this week, and leans on Barkley to get take the workload as the game progresses.  I know the Eagles secondary is banged up, but many think some of the young gun CBs waiting on the sidelines must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia , has had enormous problems scoring this season, averaging just 20.5 ppg, and after last weeks defensive catastrophe vs the Saints will also be primed to play better D. The above combinations Im betting will see this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

The Giants  have gone under 24 straight times with more than 3 days rest when they are off a home game in which they had at least ten more running plays than their season-to-date average and they did not lose by a field goal or more with the combined average score clicking in at 29.8 ppg with no combined score eclipsing the 45 point plateau. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 28-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 14 or more points are 25-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Baylor's offense has   failed to score 20 points in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, HC Kingsbury  of Texas Tech said he wasn't sure if McLane Carter (high-ankle sprain), Jett Duffey (knee) or Bowman (partially collapsed lung) would be available, and with the QB situation the way it is I wont be surprised if the TT offence is sluggish. 

For both teams, this is their last chance to keep their season alive and earn bowl eligibility.Thus Im expecting a hard fought physical affair, that ends up on the low side of the number.

BAYLOR is 6-0 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppg. Rhule is 20-7 UNDER after playing 3 straight conference games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined 46.8 ppg going on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games  are 38-15 UNDER for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

No one in this league can stop the Saints offence, and the only way your going to beat them is by keeping up offensively. Look for. less than conservative effort from the Flacons as they go all out in an attempt to keep pace here tonight.  It must be noted that NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57 or more points have gone 12-1-1 to the OVER ... and a 9-0 100% OVER when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight .  NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 OVER  after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992 with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored.Payton is 7-0 OVER after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored. Payton is 6-0 OVER in home games vs. struggling  defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average score of 66.4 ppg scored.

New Orleans is red hot averaging 39.4 ppg at home, and will put at least that on the board today in a game that might resemble the one these teams played earlier this season when the  Saints beat Atlanta 43-37 in overtime in Week 3.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (New Orleans/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams 1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games are 44-16 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Mississippi State erupted for 52 points against Arkansas  , marking its fourth game of 45 or more points of the year. We all know what Mississippi Rebs defence is like, while the Rebels offence is equally explosive. I know Ole Miss defence is solid and must be respected, but  Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, ranks second in the FBS with 3,831 passing yards and put points on the board against the best of teams . Tonight Im expecting a back and forth slugfest that will see the total eclipsed.

OLE MISS is 6-0 OVER against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 69.5 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 7-0 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 72.2 ppg scored.OLE MISS is 7-0 OVER  after game with 50 or more pass attempts since 1992 with a combined average of 69.1 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 6-0 OVER n home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

N.Illinois plays a methodical brand of football, that results in slow grinding low scoring games. 
N ILLINOIS is 9-2 UNDER in all games this season with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. More of the same sleepy action is on board tonight vs Western Michigan. 

N ILLINOIS is 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 ppg scored  . W MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons and  is 10-1 UNDER in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs,

CFB team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The NFL has decided to move Monday night's showdown between the 9-1 Chiefs and Rams from Mexico City to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum because of poor field conditions at Estadio Azteca, it was announced Tuesday. 

 This line moved off the opening 63 number. Since the 2000 campaign season,  NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57  or more points have gone 11-1-1 to the  OVER ... and a 8-0 100% OVER  when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight . Both these teams can score in bunches and both have shown inability to be inconsistent defensively which Im betting results in a high scoring affair. 

The Chiefs' star  quarterback Patrick Mahomes,  leads the league in touchdown passes (31) and passing yards per game and is second in passer rating, behind only New Orleans' Drew Brees. Meanwhile, the Rams are right behind the Chiefs in scoring, averaging 33.5 points per game, and third-year quarterback Jared Goff is third in the league in touchdown passes with 22 and fifth in both passing yards per game and passer rating.

The Chiefs rank 29th in total defense allowing  24.0 points per game.The Rams are 20th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense, giving up 23.1 points per contest. Tonight Im expecting both to allow a TD or more above their offensive averages which will create a score that eclipses to this number. 

Play OVER 

Denver will be fresh as they come off a bye week, and cannot be conservative in their approach against a Chargers team that can be offensively explosive. The Broncos Im betting will push the action and San Diego will respond in kind and push back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that eclipses this very beatable number. Note: NFL teams like Denver coming off their Bye Week have gone over in 10 of 12 qualifying games so far in the 2018 campaign  in Conference play.

Last time out Denver took part in a heart breaking 19-17 loss to the Texans a game where they missed two FGs, but in that game the Broncos threw  for 273 yards in the loss and are capable of moving the ball through the air which is important for us looking for an OVER ticket to cash.  The Broncos  have now gone OVER 7 straight times as a dog coming off a home game where they threw for at least 250 yards. Denver is 8-1 OVER  in road games vs .700  or better  opposition .

Play on the OVER 

The Falcons 4-5 on the season have the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL after getting mauled by the Steelers last week for 51 points. After that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to play some hard core physical defence this week vs the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas 4-5 a team that has has allowed 19 ppg overall on D, and has  averaged just 16.4 ppg on the road this season, will play a methodical game, which Im betting results in a score that stays on the low side of the Total. 

DALLAS in their L/6 versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game.

DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 7-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992

Quinn is 9-1 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.Garrett is 8-1 UNDER  in road games off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival as the coach of DALLAS.

Under is 8-0 in Cowboys last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in Week 11.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 vs. NFC.Under is 20-6 in Cowboys last 26 road games.Under is 13-5 in Cowboys last 18 games overall.Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 22-9 in Falcons last 31 games in November.Under is 14-6 in Falcons last 20 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 13-6-1 in Falcons last 20 games in Week 11.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.) are 36-12 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

This PAC12 matchup has the making of a big time take no prisoners  shootout. Arizona State offence has been very steady of late scoring 38,38,31 points respectively in their L/3 and here against a inconsistent Oregon D I'm betting they have a similar output in this spot. Meanwhile, Oregon despite of their inconsistencies their offence has been very explosive at home averaging more than 43 ppg, and Im betting they fire back with some fireworks of their own , in a tilt that I project will eclipse this total.

The two most recent meetings in this series over the L/2 seasons have seen 72, and 89 total points go on the board. 

OREGON in their L/8 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 69.8 ppg scored.OREGON is 18-7 OVER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse with a combined average of 67.7 ppg scored. OREGON is 21-7 OVER  in a home game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 with the combined average score clicking in a 70.8 ppg. 

Oregon has gone OVER 14 straight times at home coming off a loss where they failed to cover with the average combined score clicking in at  73.3 ppg. ( The Ducks lost at Utah last week 32-25)

Play OVER 

The last 2 weeks have seen the Longhorns  put  40+ point explosions on the board which Im betting is an anomaly and I'm also betting they fall back down to earth here this Saturday at least from a offensive perspective vs a Iowa State side that has allowed an average of  just 18.7 ppg on the road this season, I expect the Cyclones  a team that has scored just 23 ppg on the road behind  a  methodical approach, to slow this game down to a crawl, which will result in a score that stays under the Total. 

IOWA ST is 11-1 UNDER after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons

TEXAS is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 season.TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB team against the total (TEXAS) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Im a big supporter of Tennessee and really like the way the seniors and veterans of this football program have stood up for Rocky top. The defence has been terrific of late, against sub par offences, but will be tested in a big way this week when free wheeling run and shoot Missouri a team  that has averaged 35.5 ppg of offence this season and allowed 32.5 ppg in road games . Missouri has scored 63 and 50 points respectively in the last two meetings in this series and are viable bet to come close to those outputs again. Im betting the Vols will do their best to answer back in no quit fashion, which will result in a higher scoring game than many of the pundits expect. 

MISSOURI is 16-4 OVER after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers with a combined average of 65.8 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by junior quarterback J’Mar Smith has 13 passing touchdowns with eight interceptions and 2300+ passing yards and two rushing touchdowns and can light up the board in conservative duel threat fashion against the best of defences, which Southern Miss owns . Meanwhile, LA Tech is also solid defensively, but Im betting  Southern Miss should do fine here today no matter which one of their QBs starts ( Jack Abraham or Tate Whately). Im expecting more points than the low total estimations which are based on defensive stats alone. 

Play OVER 

A come-from-behind upset win over No. 22 North Carolina State and controlled fashion, now has Wake actually talking Bowl invitation. The 27-23 win was methodical in nature, which is different than how the Demon Deacons have played their games this season. Meanwhile, the  Panthers have alot to play for  as well, with a clear path ahead to the ACC title game against Clemson on the horizon. With that said, look for both teams to be conservative in their approaches today with neither wanting to make mistakes, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. 

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER in road lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.3 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored  and  is 7-0 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450  or more yards/game. 

Clawson is 23-9 UNDER in home games after playing a conference game in all games he has coached with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Florida Atlantic and North Texas do battle in a contest that Im betting eclipses the Total.

N.Texas has averaged 40.4 ppg at home in offence this season. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic despite of being inconsistent on offence has the guns to light any team in the Sun Belt . They nailed 52 points on Old dominion and scored 36 on UCF on the road and have had back to back outputs of 49 and 34 points. Their Achilles heel remains a defence that has allowed an average of 37.8 ppg on the road. Everything points to offensive fireworks here tonight. FAU scored 41 last year and 59 points the year before vs North Texas, and now N.Texas looks to do damage to in retaliation mode. 

Play OVER 

Ball States defence has been atrocious over the L/3 weeks allowing 42,52,45 points respectively. W.Michigan despite of being without their starting QB Jon Wassink are  still capable slicing and dicing this putrid  downtrending Ball State D, by using key cog  junior RB Levante Bellamy ranks No. 10 in college football with 907 yards rushing to set up the option. Meanwhile,  Ball State despite of also  being without starting QB  Riley Neal should also do damage vs a Broncos D, that has allowed 51, 49 points in back to back games.

BALL ST is 8-1 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 64.1 ppg scored. BALL ST is 6-0 OVER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W MICHIGAN) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in November games are 43-18 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

The Eagles are only 4-4 coming off their bye week and  take on a Dallas side that is 3-5 on the season.  This contest features a Eagles team that bases its successes and failures on top tier defence and a methodical attack that averages 19 ppg in offense at home and a team  in Dallas that has problems scoring especially on the road averaging just 13.5 ppg (0-4 UNDER this season). The Eagles are particularly stingy /conservative at home, going UNDER in 16 of their L/22 home tilts. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone under in 15 of their L/20 road games and when the total is 43 or less they have gone under 5 of 6 times. I know the Cowboys played a high scoring game last time out, but Im betting that won't be the case this Sunday night. 

Dallas is 0-7 L/7 UNDER on Sun Nights .

Philly is 0-3 UNDER  L/3 vs Dallas.

The Cowboys are 8-24-1 UNDER against any team off a bye and 2-13-1 UNDER record on the road. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER  in home games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at just 31.1 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more  yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

The Lions (3-5) are struggling mightily and known the division basement after scoring just 19 points in consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings. Detroit failed to get into the end zone in the 24-9 loss at Minnesota and quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 10 times. It hasn't helped the WR Golden Tate was traded away by the Lions , and leaves you scratching your head for answers to why it was done. Detroits  entire offensive line looks lost and scoring won't come easily again this week vs the Bears with defensive stalwart Khalil Mack expected back in the Bears lineup. The Bears even with Mack out allowed their L/2 opponents to a combined  19 points and not allowing a touchdown in either game until the fourth quarter. Key Trend: The Lions are 0-6 OU L/6   on the road off a road game in which they made 4 or fewer third downs. 

Im  betting the Lions will have problems converting this week, and for this to have a direct effect on the total combined score , which Im betting ends up on the low side of the Total. Note: The Lions have gone under in 9 of their L/11 as division road dogs. 

Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordUnder is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars are desperate for wins  and have lost 4 straight after starting their season at 3-1 including a win vs the New England Patriots.  They are off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to take on Andrew Luck  and his Colts this week. I know for a certainity that they have no plans of getting their QB Bortles to go head to head with Andrew Luck, so Im betting on a more methodical conservative approach here that should slow this game down to their liking , and which in turn will help see this Total combined score stay on the low side of the Total. The Colts had a alot of good results runnign the ball this week, so I can see them coming right back and being happy to pound the ball again here, against a team that will most likely do the same.

The Jaguars have gone UNDER 8 straihg times on the road when their ATS margin increased over their past two games.The Colts  have gone under 8 straight times  at home off a road game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their average which was the case last week, and are also 10-0 UNDER when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a victory in when they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards. The Colts  have gone under 6 straihgt times at home after they outgained their opponent.

NDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.9 ppg scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons witht he average combined score clicking in at 43.5 ppg. 

NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-7 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% covnersion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 41-16  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Colorado State is struggling on offence and have only averaged 23.2 ppg on the road this season while, Nevada has allowed an average of 26 ppg  at home. Colorado State has a crap run defence allowing an average of 207 ypg, and despite of Nevada liking to air it out, I expect the Wolfpack will consistently attack the perceived weakness of the Rams D on the ground which will eat up alot of clock. This along with the Rams offensive futility  Im betting results in game that stays on the low side of the number. 

CFB team against the total (NEVADA) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

California has a conservative  formula which relies on the defense to keep games close, smash away  on the ground  , and grab points any way they can. They have  scored 17 points or fewer in four of the last five games. The trojans should have no problems slowing down the Bears muted attack, and in turn the Bears are capable enough on defense to hold USC below their season average.CALIFORNIA is 7-1 UNDER  in all lined games this season and have gone under in 5 straight. 

Play UNDER 

The Tigers beat the Eagles 34-7 last year in Death Valley, and I won't be surprised at another combined score in the 40s again here in chilly Boston here tonight. 

CLEMSON is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 41.9 ppg scored.BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-1 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging  425  or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 14-2 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (CLEMSON) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 44-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Rice has allowed an average of 42.3 ppg on the road this season, and that season defensive average has a good chance of being breached or met again by a LA Tech team that has averaged 30.7 ppg  at home vs some decent defences like UAB that has 2 shut outs this season. I look for the Tech to score above their season average and for Rice to do just enough damage to help this combined score put up enough digits on the scoreboard to eclipse this total. 

LOUISIANA TECH is 24-10 OVER  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-2 OVER  as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points with a. combined average of 69.5 ppg scored. The last 3 meetings in this series have gone over , with the most recent two games seeing an average combined score of 7 0 and 78 points per game get scored. 

Play OVER 

Florida Atlantics offence has been inconsistent this season, but they are just off teeing off on Florida International scoring 49 points. Overall on the season  the Owls have been explosive at home scoring an average of 36.7 ppg. Today against a below average Western Kentucky defence allowing 30 ppg Im expecting them to hit   or go above their average output again and for the Hilltoppers to do just enough damage to help facilitate this combined score eclipsing the Total. 

W KENTUCKY is 7-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 83.7 ppg going on the board. 

CFB team against the total (FLA ATLANTIC) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 67-33 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

East Carolina has averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road this season, and Im betting they wont do much damage here again vs Tulane. The Green Wave's defense has allowed 416.4 yards per game through Week 10, which ranks No. 87 in college football. Tulane loves to run, and grind away, and that will eat clock time down, which in turn will have a negative effect on total output. 

TULANE is 8-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season with a. combined average of 43 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

UCLA ha allowed 34 ppg on average on the road this season, and could easily see that number eclipsed here. Arizona has averaged 33.6 ppg at home this season, and are good  bet according to my numbers to eclipse that average by a TD or more . I than expect UCLAs sometimes capable offense to add to those above mentioned outputs and  also do some damage in a game that will go above  the total. 

ARIZONA ST is 6-0 OVER  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.2 ppg going on the board.ARIZONA ST is 10-2 OVER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

I cannot put my finger on it , but their something wrong with the Ohio State buckeyes fluidity. they just don't look like a championship calibre team despite of their 8-1 record. The most glaring issue is the Buckeyes D, but this week, Im betting that won't be a big problem from a methodical Spartans offence. Last week those issues were obvious, against Nebraska, but the Buckeyes secondary was banged up with three guys out, all are expected back this week. Meanwhile, Michigan State is very talented on the defensive side of the ball, and Im betting will make life difficult for Ohio State vaunted attack.MICHIGAN ST is 10-2 UNDER  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. When these teams played here back in 2016 35 total combined points were scored and more than 50 here is not a likely scenario. 

Play UNDER

Both these teams are in a big time plus zone for scoring output entering this game. Pittsburgh is ranked No.2 in the league in offensive Red Zone with a 75%  TD conversion rate , while Carolina is ranked No.5  with a 72% touch down conversion rate. Carolina has scored 36 and 42 points in their L/2 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. Im betting we don't see many punting opportunities  here tonight in a tilt that has. strong possibility of going  OVER the number.

Carolina is a 7-0 OVER as non-div dogs 4 or less points  and are 4-0 OVER aft score 35+ pts which happened last timeout and  9-1 OVER vs .666  or better foes and have gone OVER in 3 straight Thursday night road tilts. 

Steelers are 7-1 OVER as non-division home chalk 5 points or less  and 5-1 OVER vs NFC South and  4-1 OVER L5 vs Carolina.

The Steelers  have gone OVER 14 straight times  as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which their turnovers committed decreased by at least two over their previous game . 

NFL teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (CAROLINA) - an excellent offensive team (27 PPG or more) against a below average defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 24-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This Total just keeps steaming upward, as sharp money piles on the over.Wake Forest pulled an upset of a nationally ranked N.C. State team last year and now with revenge on board , I expect a motivated effort from the Wolfpack with the no mercy rule waived , which means NC State will keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish behind an offence that has averaged 35 ppg at home this season. The average output should be upped by at least 10 points according to my projections vs a Wake Forest D, that is atrocious having allowed 37.2 ppg this season. The Daemon Deacons do however, own a offence that is the polar opposite of their D, and has proven their efficiency moving the ball as they average 32.3 ppg of offence. Look for NC State to pile up the points and for Wake First to do their best Buster Douglas impersonation and come back with some lucky haymakers of their own in a game Im betting eclipses the Total. Note:   WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WAKE FOREST) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 41-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

Miami O and Ohio ,both have explosive offences. Ohio has averaged 40+ ppg on the season and Miami O has not scored less than 30 points in any of their L/6 games  averaging 36.8 ppg. With that said, Im betting on a back forth affair here, that eclipses the beatable total. 

Ohio U won a 45-28 slugfest last season, and a repeat type combined score is a high probability outcome  again. 

MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 OVER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 71.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Both these teams are off bye weeks, and I expect  that their freshness will make for a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect . I know the Titans offence is stagnant, and that they rely on their  defence to try to be competitive, but  they have lost three straight and need to be more aggressive offensively if they hope to end their current negative run. Meanwhile, Dallas, has shown glimpses of offensive explosiveness this season, and a few weeks back put 40 points on the board vs what many believe to be a strong Jacksonville defence. My own power rankings and matchup projections  points to the Cowboys being able to more than enough damage this week to help drag this game over the low total. Note: DALLAS is 9-1 OVER in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest with a combined average of 50 ppg going on the board. 

Monday night games this season have seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg go on the board.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half are 36-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in November games are 26-3 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored with the average total listed at 40. 

Play on the OVER 

During the L/18 seasons ,there have been nine tilts  with  Totals line of 58 or more points  They have seen an average of 66.4 ppg scored .  None have gone under with one push. I'm betting on current trend continuing, as we see two of the best QBs in football Jared Goff and Drew Bree's do battle with a super star array of explosive NFL talent surrounding them. On the flip side both  the rams and the Saints in my humble opinion have over rated defences, and that will be on full display here today. Let the fireworks begin. 

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 OVER after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread with a combined average of 63 ppg going on the board. New Orleans 3 home games this Eason have seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. 

Play OVER 

NFL teams like KC laying a TD or more  on the road,  the UNDER is a strong play going under 19. of the L/20 times  dating back 4 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors on the low side of the Total. Meanwhile, the Browns  are  0-13 UNDER L/13 as a TD-plus home dog. The Browns have also gone under in 5 straight at home vs .666 or better opposition. It must be noted that The Browns fired Hue Jackson this week and  Defensive-Co ordinator Gregg Williams is at the helm of the team. In Williams L/26 games when he was the Bills HC he went 3-23 UNDER  for a 88% conversion rate. He is extremely methodical in his approach, and Im betting against a very explosive Chiefs side he will be even more conservative if thats possible here today. This will result in a total combined score that remains on the low side of the Total.

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

These two teams Rice (1-8) and UTEP ( 0-8) have had dismal seasons, and both look forward to the opportunity to notch a win in this spot. Rice has been without starting QB Shawn Stankavage since Oct 19 , but have started to find a way to move the ball of late , and really didn't look to bad against far superior teams Florida International and North Texas scoring 17 points in each of those games, despite of getting squashed because of porous D, that has allowed an average of 39 ppg this season. My own projections estimate UTEP will eclipse their 18.9 ppg average offensive output here today by a full TD, and their  Swiss cheese D that allows an average of 34.2 ppg on the road to allow Rice to also score into the mid 20s, which should at least according to my estimates see this total number easily eclipsed. 

RICE is 25-12 OVER L/37  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average score of 61.5 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RICE/UTEP) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 54-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion Tate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER 

. The Wildcats  defence stood tall last week vs Oregon but  in recent meetings between these football programs  high scoring games have taken place,  with Arizona taking a 45-42 win on the road last season and Colorado scoring 49 points  in 2016 in their visit to the desert while allowing 24 points. Both went over the total as has 6 of the L/7 meetings overall.  What Im betting on this week is that Arizona's Khalil Tate and company behind a group that put 44 points on the board last week will do offensive damage vs a Colorado team that allowed Oregon State 41 points last week, and for the Buffalos to have no other option than to open things up and  respond in kind in what will be a high scoring shoot out in the  desert this Friday night. 

Note: Arizona has rushed for at least 267 yards in each of the last six meetings with Colorado. The Wildcats lead the Pac-12 with 205.33 rushing yards per game this season. Khalil Tate destroyed the Buffs last season, and I won't be surprised by another big outing as he finally looks to be on the mend. 

HC Sumlin is 13-2 OVER  in home games off a home win by 17 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 82.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

  Wow its been a long time since a team was favoured by this much on the road .  Actually the Pats were favoured by 13.5 points vs the  Jags about 6 seasons ago and that game went under the total by 13 points. . NFL road chalk of a -8 or more points  have gone under  18 of the L/19 times this situation has arisen. Buffalo has scored a total of 26 points in their L/3 games, and were shut out in one of them, and seem completely offensively inept. Today against an explosive New England offense I expect the Bills to be extremely methodical in their approach and to try to burn as much clock as possible, thus slowing the Pats attack which will curtail their output in a gem I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total. 

  Buffalo has gone under 3 straight times at home as a dog of 7 or more points. Buffalo has gone under in 5 straight games overall. 

NEW ENGLAND is 17-6  L/23 UNDER vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with he combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored.

NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, struggling  team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 29-6 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Rams can score against any team in this league at will averaging 35.6 ppg at home  , and GB just does not have the type of defense that can handle this type of explosive group as they allow an average of 31 ppg on the road. So Im betting the Rams do a lot of offensive damage  here today. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers the Packers QB leads a viable offence that can fire back with some weapons of their own and will not be easy pushovers in what Im betting will be all out offensive shootout. 

GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with he average combined score clicking in at 58.6 ppg and s 6-0 OVER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with the combined average score coming in at 64.5 ppg. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking at 61 ppg. 

Green Bays last game resulted in a  high scoring 33-30 conflict vs SF. It must noted that the  Cheese machine is  12-0 OVER L/12  off a game as chalk after they scored at least 24 points  .

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-7 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Tampa Bay enters into this game as a team that concentrates almost solely on throwing  the ball to move the chains because their inability to run it as is obvious by their 30th overall rank via the ground attack.  So today against the Bengals you can bet they will be air it out big time again. Meanwhile, Cincinnati gave up 551 yards of offence last week vs KC in a ugly DD loss, and look ripe to taken advantage of again. Note: The Bengals have gone over 7 straight times at home off a double-digit road defeat when they are taking on  a team that is averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game like TB. the flip side, the Buccaneers D,  is very porous allowing an average of 32.7 ppg and will Im betting getting trashed in return, which sets up well for a combined score that eclipses this Total.  TAMPA BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 54.6 ppg. 

NFL team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two struggling  defensive teams ( 27 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-11 OVER L/35 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

Let me say it does not matter if Sam Ehlinger plays QB this week or not, for Texas, as he is questionable with a shoulder injury suffered last week. Shane Buechele,will be a fine replacement, and the 6th ranked Longhons Im betting do significant offensive damage this week, vs a a defense that is struggling and has allowed 40 plus points in their L/2 home games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State despite of all their misgivings are averaging 43.2 ppg in offence at home this season and  can score against the best of teams. These teams have gone over in 6 of their L/7 meetings and Im betting this one flys over as well. 

Oklahoma State is 12-0 OVER at home off a game where they allowed at least 28 points with a combined average of 87.3 ppg going on the board. No tilt saw less than 70 total points scored. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 26-8 OVER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) since 1992 with the average combined score clicking in at 66.1 ppg.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 86.9 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Western Kentucky  avenging just 20.1 ppg in offence this season does not have the guns to compete with Florida International in a run and gun type affair, and will come into this game preparing to play a methodical conservative game. Add to that the Hilltoppers will be in a huge letdown  situation that could see them start slowly after blowing a late lead last week to Old Dominion, and losing thanks to some bizarre circumstances that include penalties and failed FG attempts. Meanwhile, on the flip side FINT is a Doctor Jekyll and Hyde type of  team averaging just 22.5 ppg on offence on the road this season  as compared to their overall 35.9 ppg output . The Panthers have a history of playing a more conservative type of game as visitors that has resulted in a lot of lower scoring tilts.  With that said,  you have  what I'm betting will be the makings for a low scoring sleeper. Note: FINT  has gone UNDER 10 straight times  as a road favourite with no combined score eclipsing the 55 point plateau with the average combined score clicking in a 43.8 ppg. 

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W KENTUCKY) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

Tampa Bays defence has been purged in back to back games, giving up a total of 80 points ,but the Browns are not the type of team that can take advantage of their wobbly defence. The Browns have scored 18 points or less in 3 of their 6 games, and have averaged 13 ppg in their L/2 trips to the gridiron. On the other side of the ball the Browns are a physical group that are hard to play against and the Bucs Im betting have a hard time doing dome offensive damage here in this spot. I know the Buccaneers have gone over in 5 straight but because of this the total of this tilt is overinflated. It must be noted that teams like the Bucs that have allowed at least 80 combined points their last two games are a long term 28-64-1 UNDER dating back to the 2010 season with the average combined score clicking in 42.5 ppg.

Cleveland was blasted last Tim out by the Chargers,(38-14) but are  12-3 L/15 UNDER  off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more. Cleveland is 4-13 UNDER vs NFC South. 

The L/4 meetings in this series have seen a combined 29.3 ppg scored on average. 

NFL Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games are 7-28 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Osweiler, who completed 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards is the expected starter here again this week for the Dolphins. Don't be fooled by the big numbers because there was huge after the catch numbers posted and  that kind of performance and yards activity is truly odd. The Fins surprised the Bears and took a 31-28 win, also thanks to turnovers something this Dolphins teams not really built for over the long haul and Im betting they will fall back down to earth in their followup against the Lions this week. Meanwhile, the Lions are well rested off a bye week and many might expect them to fly out of the gate here, but in the past they have been more methodical and conservative in their road games, and are  0-5  UNDER L/5 as a road favorite when the total is more than 43. the Lions are also 0-5 UNDER L/5 after a bye. The Lions also take on a a Dolphins defense that has been effective in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs, something the Lions have excelled at this season.If these results  continue to trend this way we have a high probability of wiping a score off the board , which in turn will help keep this total combined score on the low side of the number.

NFL Home teams against the total (MIAMI) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 33-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER