Rotation #817: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) @ Illinois Illini @ 9 ET - This is one of those "someone knows something" lines. The Spartans are only 3.5 dogs here as of about 9 hours before game time. That would mean these teams are rated equally on a neutral floor but yet Illinois is a ranked team in the Top Ten and has only 3 losses this season while the Spartans already have 6 losses including 3 in the Big Ten! In what universe could this line be only 3.5 on the Illini given these facts? Exactly! That is why the play here, in my typical contrarian fashion, is absolutely on Michigan State. Keep in mind the Spartans lost the only meeting between these teams last season so this is also a revenge spot for them. The Illini are currently without Terrence Shannon Jr after off the court issue that continues under investigation. Though they only lost by 5 points at Purdue they were down big most of the game and, by as many as 21 points, and they never led the entire way in the 5-point loss. The Illini shot a higher 3 point percentage than usual and that helped the cause and it should have been a loss by double digits. The Spartans also off a loss in which they were done in by turnover margin and points off turnovers killed them. They will respond here. So well-coached under Izzo and they will clean things up here and they catch Illinois off a game in which they gave a lot of effort twice battling back from huge deficits in that game. Spartans have great shot at the upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. Illinois also won both meetings the year before last so this is a double revenge spot. 10* MICHIGAN STATE (+)

Rotation #739 CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - Much is made of home court edge in College Basketball and certainly it is valid that there is a solid edge in College Hoops for the host. However, this Sooners team is loaded with plenty of upper classmen as well as not freshmen in its entire normal playing rotation. Oklahoma is being undervalued here as they are 13-1 SU this season. I realize they are playing their first true road game of this season but they are 3-1 in neutral site games and plus the players they have got plenty of road experience in the past too. This is not a big group of freshmen going on the road. That said, these teams split last season with each team winning at home including the Sooners knocking off the Horned Frogs in Norman, OK in the last regular season game. That makes this a revenge spot but TCU already has 3 losses this season and I feel strongly that they are over-valued here. We have seen this line go from an opener in the 3-point range to now as high as nearly a half-dozen points in the market place as of about 10 hours before tipoff. If you look at the Frogs schedule so far, they had a soft very early-season schedule. As it has toughened up they have struggled and lost 3 games in the more recent action. Also, they have a huge game on deck with Houston. Not only are the Cougars another Big 12 foe from the same state, they are currently undefeated and #2 in the entire country. This spot going to be a battle down to the wire the way I see it. Also, will there be a normal crowd for this game? The kids at TCU are still on a winter break before classes resume. How much will home court matter? Not enough the way I see it. This is also a well-coached Sooners team and I expect them to surprise here! 10* OKLAHOMA (+)

Rotation #861: CBB Monday 10* Top Play Northeastern Huskies (+) @ Monmouth Hawks @ 7 ET - The Huskies are just 5-9 this season and the Hawks are 8-6 this season plus hosting this game! That being said, how is it that Monmouth is just a 2.5 to 3.5 point favorite in this one even on their home floor? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you! This one has trap written all over it and I expect Northeastern to roll here just like they did in last year's victory by a 15-point margin. The Huskies have played a tougher schedule than the Hawks so far in my opinion and that is part of the reason this game is priced this way. Again, do not let this line fool you. Grab the underdog here! 10* NORTHEASTERN (+)

Rotation #783: CBB Saturday Texas Tech (+) @ Texas @ 8 ET - This is a rivalry game. Last season the home team did win each game but both games were tight. With this one moving as high as a 7 as of 6 hours before tipoff, we have excellent value with the big dog here. UT is ranked and Texas Tech is not but the Red Raiders are off to a hot start this season with only 2 losses and one of those was in OT. They match up well with Texas and are fully capable of pushing Texas to the limit in this one. UT has played a weaker schedule recently and that could hurt them here. Keep in mind, they have not played as well against stronger teams this season. As a ranked team, all the pressuer ison the Horns here as well. Don't be surprised if they are pushed to the limit here and the Red Raiders take this one to the wire. Tech has some veteran leadership which helps in a tough Big 12 road game like this. The visitors will be ready. 10* Texas Tech (+)

Friday CBB 10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies (-) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 6:30 ET - Last night this side was 6.5 and now it is in the 4 to 4.5 range as of 6.5 hours before tipoff. This is just too low. Connecticut is such a strong team and even against tough, ranked opponents, they have impressed this season. I know the Bulldogs are looking better this season than last season and they have long been known for a strong homecourt edge, however the Huskies are too tough. Note that UConn won both meetings last season, each in blowout fashion. Also, the Bulldogs have often struggled against tougher competition this season. So it is true that Butler is 10-4 this season and the Huskies are only slightly better at 12-2 in terms of SU records. However, look at the talent level of each team and the performance against high-quality foes and you will see that the Huskies have huge edges. With this number coming down, I have no hesitation in getting involved here. 10* CONNECTICUT (-) 

Rotation #671: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) @ Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - The Rams started the 2021-22 season with a 12-4 mark. Since then, Rhode Island is 18-41 SU! If you look at their games so far this season their wins have been against weaker foes and St Joe's certainly does not fall into that category! The Hawks are off a huge win by a 41-point margin and have won 7 of last 8 games which included a win over a ranked Villanova team! Also, they took a ranked Kentucky team to OT before losing. This St Joseph's team is very solid this season and this is an absolute bargain line against a still struggling Rams team. Not only is Rhode Island 18-41 SU, they also had lost 5 straight before a win over Northeastern in their most recent game. By the way, 8 of the Rams last 9 losses have been by double digits so the small number here - 5.5 range as of 7 hours before tipoff should not be an issue. 10* ST JOSEPH'S (-) 

Rotation #627: CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Murray State Racers @ 8 ET - Murray State is off a win but they had lost 9 of 10 before that. The Racers traditionally are strong but this does not look like one of their better teams. I like the fact that this line has gone from nearly a pick'em to now Murray State in the -4 range as of about 9 hours before tipoff. We are getting solid line value here because Illinois-Chicago is off B2B losses. The Flames have not 3 straight games all season long. I am looking for a big response here as this team has been ultra competitive this season. The Flames, before the 62-50 loss at Southern Illinois, had gone 7-4 SU last 11 games and the largest margin of defeat was 5 points and the other 3 losses were by 2 or less points. In other words, exceptional value here with the points and we'll grab them! 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (+)

Rotation #704 CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon State Beavers (+) vs USC Trojans @ 10 ET - This line is currently in the 8.5 to 9 range as of about 7 hours before tipoff and there is excellent value here with the underdog. The Beavers have not played as tough of a schedule but they are at home for this game and are coming off a loss but had an 8-3 record prior to that. Also, the Trojans have revenge here from a loss here last season. However, USC enters this game just 4-6 last 10 games and only 3 wins by more than 8 points in their last 10 games! Oregon State won 5 straight games before their tough loss to UCLA in most recent game by 7 points. The Beavers last lost by more than 7 points was back on Thanksgiving weekend! The Beavers have played the Trojans tough in each of the last 3 meetings with an outright win and each of the two losses by 3 or less points. Remember that Oregon State went from an ugly 3-win season to an 11-win season last year to now looking lite a 15-win type team this season. People still remember that Beavers team that went 14-49 the past two seasons combined but they truly are looking much better this season and Corvallis is not an easy place to play. We'll gladly grab the generous points being offered here. 10* OREGON STATE (+)

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 9 ET in Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu, Hawaii - Perfect set up here. The Yellow Jackets blew a huge 20 point 2nd half lead against Hawaii yesterday and barely hung on. That is the kind of game that takes a lot out of a team, especially when it is part of a tournament like this where teams are playing so many games in a short period of time. I look for yesterday's game to be the final good moment for Georgia Tech over in Hawaii as the fresher legs and overall stronger roster belongs to Nevada. The Wolf Pack are coming off a much more comfortable win yesterday as they maintained a big lead for much of the game and cruised to the win over TCU by double digits. The Pack are now 11-1 this season and all 11 wins have been by at least 6 points and that is the number on this game as of about 12 hours before tipoff. 9 of the other 10 Nevada wins have been by double digits. Georgia Tech's last 3 wins have been by an average margin of just 3 points and one of those victories was in OT! In other words, the Jackets have been winning too but not by big margins and there is a lot of value here with a 1-loss team facing a 3-loss team whose 3 losses have, by the way, been by a margin of 17 points on average. Lay the reasonable number here and look for the favorite to roll by double digits in this one. 10* NEVADA (-)

Rotation #883: Friday CBB 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Old Dominion Monarchs @ 7:30 ET - Temple will bounce back here in Hawaii - this line 3.5 as of about 6 and 1/2 hours before tipoff - as the Owls take advantage of a struggling Old Dominion team here. The Monarchs have lost 4 straight games and allowed an average of 90 ppg in those 4 defeats! Old Dominion only has two wins in regulation time this season and both were against outclassed foes. The Monarchs certainly do not outclass the Owls! So, in other words, look for their losing skid to continue here. The Owls are off their worst loss of the season to a tough Nevada team but, prior to that defeat, Temple was 6-4 on the season and the average loss was by just 6 points. The Owls have faced a tougher schedule than Old Dominion as well and the Monarchs are just 3-7 SU on the season. So when you factor all this in, this is a solid line value situation to back a short favorite off their worst loss the season. 10* TEMPLE (-)

CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (+) vs Washington State @ 11 PM ET at Spokane, WA @ 11 ET - This one is a neutral site game though the location certainly favors the Cougars over the Broncos as Pullman is closer to Spokane than Boise is but the point is this is not a true home game for Washington State. I love the contrarian aspect to this one as Washington State has revenge plus they are the Pac-12 foe facing a Mountain West team so they are the perceived stronger team and want payback for a loss to Boise State early last season. Consider all these aspects and then think about why this line would have opened up in the pick'em range? Exactly...and this line has now even moved up to Washington State as a 2.5 point favorite. Of course most are backing the Cougars given all of the above but the odds makers know that revenge is not always all it is cracked up to be plus the Broncos have played a tougher early season schedule. So when you fact all this in you can see the line value with the underdog in this match-up and I am backing the underdog in this one and we'll grab the bucket though we should not even need the points. 10* BOISE STATE (+) 

Rotation #685: Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Creighton Bluejays @ 9 ET - The Wildcats are only 7-4 SU this season but they have wins over some teams and plus 3 of their 4 losses this season have been by 4 or less points. I feel we have excellent line value here with this one in the 9 to 9.5 point range and I will not hesitate to step in with a solid play on the Wildcats in this one. Villanova also has revenge here as they were knocked out of the Big East tourney by the Bluejays last season. The Wildcats lost their regular season game at Creighton last season as well but that defeat was by just 5 points. There is a lot of value here on Nova because this is still a talented team and they just beat UCLA without Justin Moore. Everyone is stepping up with Moore out of the lineup and that will happen again tonight. Also, the Wildcats have a tendency to play poorly against weaker foes and then be at their best against stronger foes. In other words, you will see their best again tonight. They also have a rest edge with 10 days off since their most recent game. Even though the Bluejays are at home for this one, there could be a lot of students home for the holidays already so they may not have an exactly raucous crowd for this one either. All factors considered (including the fact that Moore is out for this one) has led to a big value with the big underdog here. 10* VILLANOVA (+) 

CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ California Baptist Lancers @ 10 ET - The Hilltoppers have won 5 straight games and I like the fact they are averaging 8 steals per game. This WKU team plays opportunistic defense and their confidence is surging with each win. The Toppers can hang tough in this game and they are facing a California Baptist team that has just one win in last 3 games and that win was by just a single point. The Lancers come from a weaker conference and the Toppers are undervalued here the way I see it. An outright upset would not surprise me in the least but certainly there is value in the points here even though the Hilltoppers are on the road for this one. Keep in mind Cal Baptist off tight 1-point win over UC Riverside which is, of course, a city rival of theirs in Riverside so the set up here is even better than most realize. Love this spot for at least a road dog cover in this one. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (+)

Rotation #873 CBB Monday 10* Top Play Oakland Golden Grizzlies (+) @ Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - This line in the 16.5 point range as of about 5 hours before tipoff. Spartans off that huge win over the highly-ranked Baylor Bears and it was a blowout win. However, Michigan State shot lights out in that game including a ridiculous 8 of 12 from three point land. That said, we absolutely have some value here with this solid Oakland team catching huge points in a classic little brother versus big brother match-up. Of course the Spartans are the much stronger team but the Golden Grizzlies are loaded with Michigan guys who want this game of course. Last season they did lose by double digits in this match-up but the Spartans were heavily outshot by Oakland in that game and the Golden Grizzlies were done in by poor shooting. That said, there is value here with a big dog that has proven they can compete with stronger teams. The Golden Grizzlies have competed just fine with solid programs like Xavier and also other Big Ten teams like Ohio State and Illinois. This one will likely be decided by single digits and we take advantage of the strange shooting percentages that the Spartans just had in their win over Baylor plus the crazy shooting dynamics of last season's meeting between these teams. 10* OAKLAND (+)

CBB Friday: 10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies (-) @ Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 10 PM ET - The Huskies are the stronger team and have an experience edge and they are so strong in the paint. Connecticut also has enough outside shooting prowess to stretch teams out and that open things up inside the paint as well. Note the Bulldogs lost their only game against a ranked team this season while Connecticut has played 3 ranked foes already and gone 2-1. I feel strongly that the Huskies are better prepared for this intense match-up and that is also why you are seeing them favored by about 4 points here (as of mid-day Friday) even though they are on the road and playing in a tough venue. Lay the points with the road team in this one. 10* CONNECTICUT (-)

Rotation #859: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6:30 ET - The Huskers are 7-2 this season plus at home and plus playing with revenge from last season. Yes they are a 3-point dog to a Spartans team that is just 4-4 this season. Big mistake, right? Actually, not at all! The Huskers have played a weaker schedule than the Spartans. Also, Nebraska lost their Big Ten opener to Minnesota despite the Golden Gophers losing their leading scorer to injury early in the game. Yes the Spartans also off a loss to open up Big Ten action but they faced a tough Badgers team and mainly lost that game because Wisconsin was much better from 3-point land than Michigan State. So here we are getting solid line value in this spot as there has been an over-reaction the Spartans mediocre record so far this season. We step in and take advantage of a quality team laying a small number in a bounce back spot. We get the small number because they are on the road and because of a forced adjustment on the line by the marketplace. 10* MICHIGAN STATE (-)

Rotation #752: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (-) vs Illinois State Redbirds @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in Sunday's write-up on UIC - an underdog cover as they lost by just one point - the Flames have been developing well in recent years. They are well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been a process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. Now Illinois-Chicago is 5-2 on the season and with Illinois State, this is not the right kind of team roster to take advantage of the Flames guard-heavy style. This is an MVC opener for these teams and the Flames will fare well in this match-up. I like laying a very reasonable number of points in this one with a team that is undefeated at home and hosting a team that has lost 3 in a row in games played away from home. Note that UIC is hitting 48% from the field this season and the Redbirds are hitting just 39% from the field. Also, the Flames are averaging much higher blocked shots numbers. This is no surprise as, in this match-up too, UIC has some height and length edges in guard play as well. Illinois-Chicago lost the most recent meeting between these teams in a game played at Illinois State and that was in OT last season. This will be payback at home and they bounce back from a 1-point loss. Keep in mind the Flames only other loss this season was to Cincinnati! Lay it! Illinois-Chicago (+)

Rotation #629 CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 9 ET - The Wolfpack are a 2 or 2.5 dog in this one as of about 11 hours before tipoff. This line actually opened with NC State as a small favorite in some spots. I love fading line moves like this. First off, Ole Miss is undefeated. Secondly, the Rebels are at home. Thirdly, the line is moving toward the undefeated home team on their home floor. I will grab the dog often in spots like this and particularly when are 1-loss team is coming off that very first loss of the season. The Wolfpack are a solid team loaded with upperclassmen. This is part of the ACC/SEC annual battle and I like the fact the Rebels last 3 wins have all come by slim margins - an average margin of victory of just 1.7 points - and now they face the toughest test yet! This will be the toughest team they have faced and the Wolfpack not in a good mood coming off that loss. Give me the motivated ACC dog that won nearly TWICE as many games as Ole Miss last season! 10* NC State (+)

Rotation #751: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) vs UNC Greensboro Spartans @ 7 ET -As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on UIC, the Flames were off a blowout win Friday so they were able to rest guys and only 2 guys exceeded 27 minutes and neither one of those topped the 31 minute mark. UIC is well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. Now Illinois-Chicago is 5-1 on the season and that was a solid George Washington team they beat yesterday. Now they face UNC Greensboro. The Spartans are 4-1 on the season and have looked strong but they have hit a very high percentage of 3's recently and now face tough tourney situation in that it is a B2B2B and the hot shooting fades. Couple that with the fact they've been giving up too many offensive boards and this is not the right kind of team to take advantage of the Flames guard-heavy style. The Flames will fare well in this match-up and I like having the sizable points in this one. Also UIC has some height and length edges in guard play as well. Grab the points! Illinois-Chicago (+)

CBB Friday 10* Top Play Seton Hall (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6 ET - Iowa might rate as a slightly better overall team and Seton Hall is only +1 or +1.5 as of about 5 hours before tipoff. However, the better defense belongs to the Pirates. Iowa certainly has some key seniors too but the overall rotation for Seton Hall is loaded with seniors. They are coming off their first loss off the season. Conversely the Hawkeyes have lost 2 of 3 games now. They are a very good team and score well but they are not good on the defensive end. That said, the defensive edges for the Pirates and the fact this is a veteran-laden team early in the season coming off their first loss has me siding with the small dog here. 10* SETON HALL (+)

CBB Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8:30 ET - The Wildcats are in a great bounce back spot after that embarrassing loss to Penn. They had won their first two games this season and can't wait to get back on the floor after the loss to the Quakers. As for the Terrapins, they are off B2B losses. They have not looked good early this season and now they face an angry team that was ranked heading into that loss to Pennsylvania. The Cats had a huge edge in shots from the field in that game but had an ugly performance. They will bounce back big here on their home floor and take this one by double digits the way I see it and this line is currently in the -6 range. 10* Villanova (-)

Monday CBB 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) @ Pennsylvania Quakers @ 7 ET - As mentioned in my play on St Joe's against the Quakers Friday, I know Penn began the season with a strong start but they had played a weak schedule. They are still dealing with a roster featuring a lot of guys playing their first college basketball. Sure enough, despite managing a surprising in-game 19-2 run, the Quakers still fell short and also failed to cover as we cashed in with the Hawks Friday. As for Monday's opponents for Penn, the Wildcats are laying about a dozen points in this spot but should roll big here. They are, of course, the most talented team in the Philly Big 5 and they looked strong so far even though they faced some weaker competition as they simply managed each game and they turned it on when they needed to. Since they are the more veteran team, they will have an advantage if this game is tight at halftime and they will pull away in the 2nd half. They know how to close out games like this and have the depth to give the Quakers trouble all game long if it is tighter than expected early in the 2nd half. However, I am expecting a rather comfortable win here as this is an important Big 5 game in Philly. Last season the Wildcats won this meeting only 70-59 but over 2/3 of the points for the Quakers came from two guys who are not here anymore. That includes star Jordan Dingle who is now with Syracuse. This is a transition season for Penn and they will struggle against a Nova team that is again a Top 25 team in the country this season. The line is around 11.5 as of early gameday morning and I expect a rout in this one. 10* VILLANOVA (-)

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 10 ET - Classic case of line value based on the Mountain West school taking on the big, bad Big 12 school. In this case, when you compare these two rosters and all the aspects of these two teams, I would rate the Wolf Pack with an edge. We are getting 5 points with the better team. Of course it is because this game is in Seattle so of course some value being assigned to Washington for this makes sense. However, this line has moved into the +5 range and it is just too much. I sense and upset here with a road team from the smaller school with strong talent and a solid roster. 10* NEVADA

Rotation #661: CBB Saturday New Mexico State Aggies (+) @ Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 10 ET - This line is all the way up to a +9 as of about Noon ET gameday and this is too much value for the underdog. Everyone remembers the Aggies getting hammered by 40 in their opener against Kentucky but they were outclassed there just like Sul Ross State was outclassed when they were the next opponent for New Mexico State and the Aggies rolled by 35 points. The fact is many will remember the UK demolition and that is why this line is so high. Cal-Irvine is off a strong season but they shot just 2 of 12 from three point land in their season opener and lost. I don't expect the Anteaters to be as strong this season and shooting like that from deep for a Big West team is not going to lead to many wins by a double digit margin against a respectable foe. The Aggies can hang tough in this one and they certainly are focused on a much stronger effort after the debacle at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY to open up their season. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE + points

Friday CBB 10* Top Play St Joe's Hawks (-) vs Pennsylvania Quakers @ 6:30 ET - I know Penn is off to a strong start but they have played a weak schedule. They are still loaded with a roster featuring a lot of guys playing their first college basketball. The Hawks are laying about a half dozen points in this spot and should roll big here. They return the core of last season's team and looked strong in their opener as they turned it on when they needed to. This will be 3rd game in 5 days for Penn while the Hawks have been off since Monday. Also, since they are the more veteran team, they will have an advantage if this game is tight late and they will pull away. However, I am expecting a rather comfortable win here as this is an important Big 5 game in Philly. Last season the Hawks won this meeting by 5 and it took OT. However, this season St Joe's looks stronger than last year while Penn is going to have some growing pains early on working new guys in. That has not showed yet because they faced opponents that were overmatched but it will show up now against a tough Hawks team. 10* ST JOE'S (-)

Rotation #306531: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Bucknell Bison + @ Pennsylvania Quakers @ 7 ET - The Quakers are off a big win but faced a completely overmatched opponent. They also have a Philly Big 5 match-up on deck with facing St Joe's on Friday. That said, even if Penn gets up big here they might start resting guys with a bigger game on deck Friday! However, don't be surprised if Bucknell gives them a lot of trouble and keeps this one in single digits throughout. The Quakers have a lot of new faces and are lacking in guys with collegiate experience. The Bison lost some guys from last season's team but still returned a good core group of guys from last season. Certainly the Quakers are the stronger team from the Ivy League as the Bison are in the Patriot League. However, this is an intriguing match-up because Bucknell got into foul trouble against Delaware and that led to a blowout loss but I like the hustle and effort I saw from the Bison in that one and this rather short road trip down to the Philly area will do them some good after the ugly home loss in their season opener. The late morning line is in the 13.5 to 14 point range and is offering great big dog value. 10* BUCKNELL +

CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) @ La Salle Explorers @ 6:30 ET - The Big 5 or the City 6? Well it is still called the Big 5 in Philly but now Drexel has been added to the mix along with La Salle and Temple and St Joseph's and Penn and, of course Villanova. All these Philly schools battle it out every year for superiority and, trust me, it means something to these teams. This year there will even be a new tournament that takes place in early December involving the Big 5 schools which, again, are now 6 with Drexel added. That said, what a great time for the Dragons to be added. This team continues to get stronger and they look great heading into this season with most of the core group, nearly everyone returning from last season. They will be playing extremely hard in this one because of the first Philly 5 aspect of it but also because of their fallen teammate who passed away in August. You are going to see an incredible effort here from a gritty and hard-working team that is a cohesive group and well-coached and is part of a program that is continuing to grow. The Dragons are going to make some noise this season. As for La Salle, their coach Fran Dunphy is a legend in these parts and the 75 year old will have his team playing better as the season goes on but the Explorers lost too much to be a solid team right out of the gate. Look for some early struggles for LaSalle this season but look for the Dragons to be ready to rock from the opening tip here. We have to lay about 2.5 points here but I truly expect a dominating win for the team that returns a lot more of its core group than its opponent in this one. 10* DREXEL (-)

Rotation #305014: College Hoops: Monday 10* Top Play St Joe's Hawks (-) vs Lafayette Leopards @ 7 ET - The Leopards have a new coach and they also lost 3 of the 6 guys that had the most minutes on the floor when these guys met last season and the Leopards rallied after being down double digits at the half. In that game Lafayette was down by 10 at the half but ended up making a game of it in the 63-59 loss. That will not happen again this season as St Joe's is absolutely stacked this season. They return 3 strong backcourt players in Reynolds, Greer and Brown. They also bring back a 7-footer in Fleming and also brought in another one in Essandoko. The latter has already been fantastic both offensively and defensively in preseason action. He is ready and the Hawks will make a statement here. They are deep so they can stay up big througout. They are healthy and they do not want a scare like they had last season so they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. St Joe's has a coach here for his 5th year and he went from 11 wins two years ago to 16 wins last season and this looks like his best team yet. The Leopards have a new coach and are in a bit of a rebuild now and they are from the weaker Patriot League while the Hawks reside in the tough Atlantic Ten. Lafayette also has a big road trip out west with UCLA and Pepperdine up next. St Joseph's is home for the first two weeks of the season and I see them starting out strong and blowing the Leopards away in this one. The line at 14, as of early game day morning, is absolutely a bargain here. 10* ST JOE'S (-)

NCAA Monday San Diego State Aztecs +7.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 9:20 ET - We have two chances to win this. That is the beauty of playing dogs in spread sports. One way of course is the outright upset but the other is just that if the dog falls short of the upset you can still get the all-important cover. The key here is we are getting 7.5 points which is a sizable amount. If a game is very tight late and then there is late fouling, etc. you will rarely see the final margin climb to 8 or more. That said, I really like our chances here because I do feel this game is going to be tight late and a great finish. I know Connecticut has been so hot and winning by huge margins and that this is, therefore, a contrarian play. But the fact is San Diego State has won 32 of 38 games this season and the final 5 of those 6 losses have ALL been by a single digit margin! The way I see it, the Aztecs are in this game all the way and fully capable of pulling off the shocker. Happy to grab the generous offering of points here. SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5

NCAA Saturday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +5.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies have been on a tear. Of course the Hurricanes have too or they would not be here. However, what I mean by a tear is that UConn has not just been winning, they have been dominating teams. That has led to very solid line value here as Connecticut is now overvalued. It is only natural that the Huskies would end up over-priced here after all their big wins. The Huskies have won their 4 games by an average of 22.5 points. Now they face a Hurricanes team that has not only won 29 of 36 games this season, the last 4 regular season defeats they had all came by a margin of 3 or less points and and average margin of defeat of only 2 points. We get great value here and I will not pass this up. The Canes are hot enough and scoring well enough that no team's defense is going to stop them in their tracks right now. They are so well-coached and have a never say die attitude they have displayed so many times that I just can not see them coming up short here. If they do, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. The Hurricanes have scored 82 ppg during their current 13-2 run. Now think of how blistering hot the Huskies have been but realize they have averaged 79 ppg last 12 games. All you hear anyone talking about is UConn but you can see why the data and the value both are in support of a very strong play here on a Canes team that is flying under the radar in my opinion. Top Play MIAMI +5.5

NCAA Saturday San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 6:09 ET - The Aztecs have twice as many losses as the Owls. However, San Diego State is favored for a reason here. The defense of the Aztecs is the difference here. They have won 8 straight games and allowed only 56 points per game during this stretch. The Owls have won 11 straight games and allowed 65 ppg in their last 9 wins. As you can see, 65 ppg allowed is solid but is not 56 either! Hats off to FAU on a fantastic season but they are the lowest seed team left in the tourney and this is a bargain price on a tough Mountain West team that faces a much tougher regular season schedule than this Conference USA foe. SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5

NIT Thursday North Texas Mean Green +2 vs UAB Blazers @ 9:30 ET - Mean Green 30-7 this season and have allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 8 of last 9 games. The Blazers beat North Texas in the C-USA Tourney after UNT took both regular season meetings. That said, the perfect revenge for the Mean Green would be getting the NIT Championship win over UAB. The Blazers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 67 points in regulation time of their last 8 games. As mentioned in my write-up for the match-up with Wisconsin in the semi-finals, this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and the set-up here is perfect for revenge with confidence never higher after the way the Mean Green closed out the win over the Badgers with dominant 2nd half play. UAB is a solid team for sure, of course, but look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to winning the NIT Championship Game Thursday as Blazers also had a little extra taken out of them with their win over Utah Valley State requiring OT Tuesday. Keep that in mind too...the Mean Green had to beat a solid Big Ten team to get here while UAB faced Utah Valley State. NORTH TEXAS +2

NIT Tuesday North Texas -1.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - Mean Green 29-7 this season and allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 7 of last 8 games. The Badgers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 65 points in regulation time of their last 7 games. Also, lets not forget Wisconsin had lost 12 of 18 games entering this tournament. Certainly Wisconsin has played the tougher schedule but this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and favored here for a reason. The odds makers are sharp and they have a CUSA team that faced a weaker schedule favored over the Big Ten team for a reason. Look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to punching their ticket to the NIT Championship Game Thursday. NORTH TEXAS -1.5

NCAA Sunday Miami Hurricanes +4 vs Texas Longhorns @ 5:05 ET - The Longhorns faced a pair of double digit seeds and then things toughened with a match-up against a #3 seed, Xavier. Even without their big man Dylan Disu (he could only go 2 minutes), the Horns prevailed. So how did they do it? Well some other guys stepped up but the real key was UT hitting 52.5 percent overall and 58.3% from three point land! Shooting percentages like that are tough to beat BUT also tough to repeat! The Longhorns will likely again be without Disu here and, against a scrappy Hurricanes team getting strong veteran leadership and strong play too, this could be the end for Texas. I am grabbing the points just in case but I am expecting the outright upset here. Even if Disu plays he is not 100% and this Canes team is playing with a lot of confidence and looks very complete and also is very well-coached. Miami is a high-quality team that is peaking at the right time and just beat a #4 seed and a #1 seed and got each win by double digits! This Hurricanes team is starting to believe and I know they, like Texas, had hot shooting in their most recent win BUT the key here is they are really healthy AND they are catching 4 points here. I do not think we'll need those points but we'll take them just in case but I am expecting an upset here. MIAMI +4

NCAA Sunday San Diego State Aztecs +2.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:20 ET - Why is Creighton favored over higher-seeded San Diego State here and an Aztecs team that has half as many losses? Well, the Bluejays have looked very good and so the odds makers and betting markets have reacted to that. This got me to look closer at this match-up and the fact is Creighton deserves credit of course but they have beaten two double digit seeds to get here and then what about the other win? Baylor was the impressive win but note that the Jays went 22 for 22 from the line and the Bears got to the line nearly as many times but only made 13. Also, Creighton shot 11 of 24 from beyond the arc while Baylor took nearly just as many but made only 5 of them. So when you consider all the facts here, the Bluejays did win that game by 9 points but they outscored the Bears by 27 points at the line and beyond the arc simply because of some extremely good shooting numbers that were outliers in my opinion. I feel this is giving us value here and I feel San Diego State will be able to slow down Creighton. Keep in mind, the Aztecs also had the good fortune of facing a couple of double digit seeds but then they faced top-seeded Alabama and won that game despite shooting poorly from everywhere. From the field overall, from 3-point land, at the free throw line...all the numbers were ugly for San Diego State at the offensive end. But they can win ugly again here as this team knows how to D up and grind out wins. Good value with the points. SAN DIEGO STATE +2.5

NCAA Saturday Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies embarrassed Arkansas (and me) on Thursday as my big play was on the Razorbacks then. But what really happened? Give credit to Connecticut for sure but if you look at the box score, you'll see some keys that have led to value here. The Huskies actually had 17 turnovers compared to just 10 for Arky. Also, UConn had 9 LESS shots from the field than Arkansas! The key was the Huskies shot a ridiculous 57% from the field compared to Razorbacks shooting an equally ridiculous 32% from the field! That included Huskies outscoring the Hogs by 12 points from beyond the arc. I also like the fact that Arkansas had 6 more free throws than the Huskies. The point is that the box score says a lot about how that game played out as it has some interesting statistical anomalies and now we get a little extra value here with a very tough and resilient and battle-tested and well-coached Gonzaga team. Facing TCU and UCLA were very tough tests for Gonzaga and help them here as Huskies certainly had the easier draw with St Mary's and Arkansas last 2 games. Bulldogs hammered St Mary's by 26 in the WCC Championship Game earlier this month. Although certainly respect is given to head coach Dan Hurley of UConn, Mark Few of the Bulldogs has long been known one of, if not the, best one currently coaching college basketball. Don't be surprised if that is a key element in crunch time as this game plays out. Top Play GONZAGA +2.5

NCAA Saturday Florida Atlantic Owls +2 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 6:09 ET - The Owls are a #9 seed and catching just a bucket here against a Wildcats team that is from the Big 12 and seeded #3 too. Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Florida Atlantic here. Everyone will be lining up on Kansas State thinking this is a trap line, etc. but look for the Cats to get upset in this one. FAU has plenty of confidence after outscoring Tennessee 40-28 in the 2nd half of their game Thursday. Kansas State blew 7 point leads multiple times in the 2nd half of their win over Michigan State. They ultimately got the win in overtime but the Wildcats could be a little more susceptible here after the way all that played out with an inability to hold on to leads as that game went on. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2

NCAA Friday Xavier Musketeers +4.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 9:45 ET - As I mentioned in fading the Longhorns with Penn State +5.5 last weekend, "Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on." Now UT faces a tough Big East team in the form of Xavier. After UConn trashed cold-shooting Arkansas yesterday, the Big East could have 3 teams in the Elite 8 if they upset Texas here and if Creighton knocks off Princeton tonight as well. The point is that the Big East was very tough this season. I know the Big 12 was certainly very strong this season too but if Kansas State did not win in OT yesterday and if UT did get upset here, they would have no one in the Elite 8 while Big East would have 3 of the 8 teams (barring major upset with Princeton tonight). Note that 6 of 9 Musketeers losses this season have been by 4 or less points. They won both games this season with Connecticut including one by a margin of 10 plus they beat Creighton by more than 20 in one of their meetings with them. The Longhorns last 24 games have featured only 10 Texas wins by more than 5 points. I like are chances here in going against the higher seed here and feel Xavier has the perfect underdog mindset entering this one. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. XAVIER +4.5

NCAA Friday Miami Hurricanes +7.5 vs Houston Cougars @ 7:15 ET - I have plenty of respect for Houston as the Cougars are a rock solid team that is among the best in the nation this season. However, I expect the points to prove to be too much here. As I noted in my play on Miami over Indiana in the 2nd round: "I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case!" So the point is, there is a lot to like about how this Hurricanes team has been playing such competitive basketball for such a long period of time. Yes they may fall short of the upset this time as, of course, Houston is better than Indiana. However, we do not need an upset to cash our ticket here. Grab the points in this one!  MIAMI +7.5

NCAA Thursday Florida Atlantic Owls +5.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 9 ET - The Owls are from the smaller conference but are a very confident team that has been scoring very well and confidence building with each win here in March. Florida Atlantic faced a pair of SEC teams early this season and lost to Ole Miss but beat Florida. The Owls beat a solid Memphis team here in the tourney and then beat the Fairleigh Dickinson team that knocked off Purdue and that win over the Boilermakers was no fluke. Tennessee is playing very solid defense but they did lose 7 of last 12 games this season before the NCAA Tourney. The Volunteers then won their first game of the tourney by only 3 points even though it was against a #13 seed. Then Duke made just 6 of 22 three pointers and only 4 free throws in the game the Vols won by 13 last weekend. That is not happening again here against this Owls team. FAU is making 37% of threes this season and averaging 9 made per game. The Owls also average about a dozen free throws made per game. The way these teams match-up it could be a bit of a low-scoring grinder which means even more value with the sizable points here and I look for the Owls to surprise in this one. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +5.5

NCAA Thursday Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:15 ET - Huskies beat a MAAC team and a WCC team to get here. Certainly St Mary's is a solid team year in and year out in recent seasons but they play in the WCC where they face Gonzaga but then a bunch of much weaker teams throughout the season. OF course the Iona team that UConn beat in round one also faces a lot of weaker competition since they come from the MAAC. The point is that UConn might be over-rated here and certainly is a little over-valued in my opinion. The Huskies did beat Alabama early this season but then went 2-5 against ranked teams the rest of the season. Also, heading into the NCAA Tourney, UConn went 11-8 overall after starting the season 14-0. Arkansas, on the other hand, had to beat a Big Ten school and Big 12 team to get here as they knocked off Illinois and then Kansas. So, the point is, the Razorbacks might be putting things together at the right time. Also, Arkansas was down by double digits in the 2nd half of their win over the Jayhawks so they had to show great resiliency in bouncing back for the win. Nick Smith is their #2 leading scorer this season in terms of ppg (missed a lot of the season) and the Razorbacks won that game over Kansas despite him scoring 0 points! Love the fact that Arky beat the Jayhawks despite making only 3 of 15 three pointers. The Huskies had very hot shooting against the Gaels and they can't keep shooting at that clip and the gritty Razorbacks give them a helluva test here and possibly even score the upset. We'll grab the points just in case. Top Play ARKANSAS +4.5

NIT Wednesday UAB Blazers +1.5 @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - This line is right around a pick'em even though UAB plays in CUSA and Vanderbilt plays in the SEC and even though Commodores are at home for this one. Note that Vandy is 14-5 at home this season while the Blazers are just 6-5 in road games this season. When you consider all of these factors and then you are staring at a line in the pick'em range, I think this tells you all you need to know here. This is a major trap the way I see it and I am not following for it. Play the road team that has the mediocre road record and is from the smaller conference. Go against the home team that is so strong as a host and is from the bigger conference. This is a contrarian play but given all these variables you can see why I like it and this is something that has worked well at a high cash-in rate in the past. More of the same here. Note that the Blazers have won 14 of 16 games and have won easily in each of their two NIT games. As for the Commodores they had to rally from a big 2nd half deficit to down the Wolverines. I know they earned it with the comeback win but that big win for Vanderbilt over Michigan could be their defining moment of the tourney that leaves them finished here. I am backing the road team most will not want here. UAB +1.5

NIT Tuesday Top Play Oregon Ducks -4.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 9 ET - The Ducks have been winning even without their top three guys. That shows the depth of this Oregon team. Now, with a win at home over the Badgers Tuesday, the Ducks can head to Las Vegas for the quarterfinals and a potential shot at the NIT Championship should they win in the semi-finals there. First things first though...the Ducks must win this game to get there. That said, I would not be surprised to see 1 or 2 or possibly even all 3 of the top players back for Oregon in this one. Either way, I like the Ducks here but don't be surprised if Dante, Couisnard, and/or Richardson are back for this game. Note that Oregon is 15-5 in home games this season while the Badgers have a losing record in road games this season. Facing the Ducks in Eugene is much different than facing the likes of Liberty and Bradley in Madison. That is no disrespect to the Flames or Braves but, the point is, the travel and facing a very tough Pac-12 team on the road is absolutely a big deal here. Lay the points here. Top Play OREGON -4.5

CBB Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte 49ers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Not only do the 49ers have a built-in rest edge here since they played on Saturday while the Panthers played yesterday on Saturday, note that Milwaukee had to go to OT to get that win yesterday. I feel UWM could be a little worn out here as they also like to play at a faster tempo than Charlotte. The 49ers are capable of slowing this game down and frustrating the Panthers with solid defense. Note that Charlotte has held teams in the 50s and 60s in many of their recent games. At the same time, Milwaukee has allowed 82 ppg in going 4-3 last 7 games and no that does not include OT points of course. This is the time of year when a team with stronger defensive capabilities can really turn up the heat on an opponent and frustrate them and that is what I see happening here. I feel there was a depth of stronger teams in the CUSA that were deeper and stronger then what we saw in the Horizon League this season. I am always hesitant to lay points and love backing dogs but this is absolutely the right situation to expect a blowout win by double digits for the home team. 10* CHARLOTTE -5.5

NCAA Sunday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +2 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 8:40 ET - The Hoosiers are off an 11-point win over Kent State Friday. Indiana must have dominated, right? Hardly! The Golden Flashes were a ridiculous 15 of 48 from the field inside the arc. To put that in proper perspective, the Hoosiers made 24 of 48 from inside the 3-point line. So, give Indiana credit for sure but at the same time you can expect there will be no such disparity here. Repeat of that is unlikely and though I am extremely impressed with Trayce Jackson-Davis, as most everyone is, the fact is that the more complete overall team in this match-up is Miami. I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case! Top Play MIAMI +2

NCAA Sunday Kansas State Wildcats +3 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 2:40 ET - I fell short with my play on Providence Friday but will come right back with a play against Kentucky again here as the situation is similar so some of this write-up may be familiar to you as well. This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid UK team and Kentucky is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #3 seed that had the benefit of facing a #14 seed in round one. They also see that Kentucky dominated the boards against Providence. However, that will not happen against this Kansas State team but yet people also see a K-St team that entered this tourney losers of 2 straight and also 6 of last 7 road games. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Kansas State team is a #3 seed with good reason and is the real deal. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky had lost 2 of 3 entering the tournament and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. Payback time for us here after losing with the Friars Friday when we went against Kentucky. I feel this game has an excellent shot to be an outright upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. KANSAS STATE +3

NCAA Saturday Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 8:40 ET - I often like to refer to the saying that the odds makers are the sharpest people in the room. The point is that, as we all know, the numbers they put out are so often spot on. That said, the low total on this game is telling you that this game is very likely to be grinder. Both these teams are solid defensively. That said, I love having sizable points in a low-scoring grinder and here we can get 7.5 with a Wildcats team that has been playing very solid basketball for a long time. Northwestern just beat a solid Boise State team while higher-seeded UCLA had a much easier draw in the first round. Of course they earned it but I feel that could come back to bite the Bruins here. This Wildcats team is so strong and feisty and so battle-tested. I was a little down on the Pac-12 this season and think the Big Ten was much deeper. That is not to say the Bruins are not the class of the Pac-12 or that they are not very strong because they absolutely are. But, the point is, they did not face the depth of quality opponents that the Wildcats had to deal with on a regular basis throughout the conference portion of the campaign. Note too that Northwestern had a 1-point loss to Auburn in non-conference action and of the only 4 losses they have had since early February, the Wildcats had 2 losses in OT and another loss by just 4 points. This Cats team is tough to blowout and I expect this game to go to the wire so we have excellent value here with the points. NORTHWESTERN +7.5

NCAA Saturday Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 7:45 ET - Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on. They took the lead at that point, widened it by half-time, and then no matter how hard Texas A & M tried to battle back the Nittany Lions just kept on answering. Yes, Andrew Funk shot lights out in that game but keep in mind it was at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines and this game is too. That means it is unlikely he completely cools off here. Plus even if he just shoots a more normal shooting percentage in that game it still would have led to a PSU win as they won that game by 17. That said, I also certainly like having the 5.5 points on our side in this one. The Lions last 4 losses are by an average margin of just 4.8 points and this is a team that has won 9 of last 11 games too. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. PENN STATE +5.5

NCAA Tourney TOP PLAY Friday Kent State Golden Flashes +4.5 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9:55 ET - The Hoosiers have a big-time star in Trayce Jackson-Davis. He had another huge game in the Big Ten Tourney against Penn State. That is the good news. The bad news is that the Hoosiers still lost the game as the Nittany Lions prevailed. As for Kent State, they are not adverse to playing with the big boys so to speak. Yes, the Golden Flashes are a MAC team but they faced both Houston and Gonzaga in non-conference action this season. Kent State put a scare into both the Cougars and the Bulldogs before falling just short in each game by an average margin of only points. That said, Indiana is a rock solid team but they are not quite on the level of  Gonzaga and Houston as those teams have only lost a combined 8 games this season. As for the Hoosiers, they started this season 7-0 and have since gone 15-11. Also, if you look at Indiana's last 9 games entering this tournament, they have only 2 wins by more than 3 points! There is great value here with the Golden Flashes getting 4.5 points in this one. Kent only lost 3 non-conference match-ups this season and the 3 teams have a combined record of 90-12! These guys can play with anyone and will not be intimidated here and have veteran leadership with 3 seniors leading the way. TOP PLAY Kent State +4.5

NCAA Tourney Friday Providence Friars +4.5 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid Wildcats team and UK is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #11 seed. They also see a Providence team that enters this tourney losers of 3 straight. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Friars team is the real deal. The Big East is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky has lost 2 of 3 and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. I also like the fact here that Bryce Hopkins is now a star player for Providence after not getting much playing time in Kentucky. Watch him show up big here against his former club as he has been huge the for Friars and you know he is relishing this opportunity. Payback time for him here. Hopkins and the Friars have an excellent shot at the upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. PROVIDENCE +4.5

NCAA Friday Pittsburgh Panthers +5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:10 ET - As mentioned in my write-up on Pittsburgh in Tuesday's win over Mississippi State, the Panthers opened the season with a 1-3 mark so they had won 75% of their games (21-7 run) prior to the loss to big bad Duke in the ACC Tourney. I realize the Cyclones also played powerful Kansas in their Big 12 Tourney loss, but the point is simply that Pitt has plenty of confidence here and yet one could argue that Iowa St has become accustomed to mediocrity this season based on their current 6-11 run since their 13-2 start. We have value here with a scrappy ACC team that is going to play very hard in this one and be very difficult for Iowa State to put away. At the same time, I feel the pressure is more on Iowa State here as they advance all the way to the Sweet 16 last year so expectations are high and the pressure is on the Cyclones to avoid an early exit. Conversely, the Panthers are a team on the rise this season playing without fear or pressure after last season's ugly 11-21 disaster. PITTSBURGH +5

NCAA Tourney Thursday Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5 or +3 vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 9:55 ET - This is a contrarian play but you can just sense what is about to happen if you are a believer in the contrarian theory like I am. The thing is the Aggies were bitter with the committee last season and then perhaps that resulted in them being under-seeded here this season. But how about what that has set up for them? A win here and they likely would be facing Texas next unless Colgate pulls off a monumental upset. So the point is that it is almost unavoidable that Texas A & M already has one eye on facing big-time in-state rival Longhorns. Yes they do not meet often like they did before the Aggies bolted to the SEC but it is still a big rivalry in Texas. That said, don't be surprised if there is a slight distraction here for the Aggies. That said, all it takes is a little distraction and a solid Big Ten team like Penn State can swoop in and take advantage. The Aggies just got hammered by Alabama by nearly 20 points in the SEC Championship Game while the Nittany Lions lost by only 2 points to the Nittany Lions. Each of last 5 losses by PSU were by only a single digit margin. This line simply looks funny to me and I feel we are getting excellent situation to back the Lions for the mild upset because the odds makers are telling us something here with this very low line on the Aggies in this one. PENN STATE +2.5 or +3

NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -13 vs Colgate Raiders @ 7:25 ET - I know that Colgate has strong shooters but Texas is so strong defensively and just beat Kansas by 20 points to capture the Big 12 title. The Raiders lost by just 7 in the Big Dance last year but faced a Wisconsin team that certainly was built much differently than this Longhorns team is. Also, the prior year Colgate lost by 17 to Arkansas in the NCAA Tourney. Also, I like the fact that this line has ticked down a little bit. Keep in mind, UT has allowed only 55.5 points last 4 games. Colgate has won 9 straight games but the level of competition different of course plus, in the last 7 victories, the Raiders have allowed an average of 71 ppg! That is much different than the Horns recent average and then when you factor in the difference in level of competition you can see why I am expecting this one to be a blowout in the 20-point range. Fade the line move here. TEXAS -13

NCAA Wednesday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +2.5 vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9:10 ET - The Mountain West was quite solid this season and that is absolutely a factor in this play for me. Yes, Arizona State comes from the perceived tougher conference since they are from the Pac-12. However, the Sun Devils started the season 15-3. That means ASU is entering this game having lost 9 of 16 games. Indeed, Arizona State is on a 7-9 run so it is hard to be excited about this team right now in my opinion. As for Nevada, they have lost 3 straight games but the last two were in OT and one of those was in double-OT! That said, very tight losses for the Wolf Pack and all of this preceded by a a 22-7 start to the season! Of their 10 losses his season, 4 were by a single digit margin in regulation and another 3 were decided in overtime! They are ultra-competitive and match up well with the Sun Devils. That said, I am expecting an outright upset here but a loss by just a 1 or 2 point margin would not shock me either and we would still get the cash. Roll with the underdog Wolf Pack in this one! 10* NEVADA +2.5

NCAA Wednesday 10* Top Play Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +2.5 vs Texas Southern Tigers @ 6:40 ET - The Knights got a new head coach and he has been a winner in his career and brought the winning to Fairleigh Dickinson immediately. It was a big turnaround from last season for the Knights and similar to my successful selection on Pittsburgh yesterday (Panthers also off a turnaround season) I feel Fairleigh Dickinson will follow the same storyline here. They have won 16 of 25 games since a slow start to the season. Conversely, the Tigers are just 14-20 this season and went 7-11 in a weak SWAC and plus lost their 3 final regular season games before getting hot in their conference tourney. Give them credit for making it but this team is so much weaker than the one that went 18-12 last season and then knocked off Texas A & M Corpus Christi the First Four last March. That said, there is a reason this line opened up around a pick'em on Texas Southern. People like them with the experience edge here but I am fading that as I like the coaching of the Knights and they were the stronger overall team winning 64% of their last 25 games and now have built confidence. Grab the points but we should not need them. 10* FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON +2.5

NCAA Tuesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 9:10 ET - I hesitate to oversimplify things but I can not help myself here so I will. First off, this line was around a pick'em and is now up to Mississippi State favored by 2.5 points. I love fading line moves and now at the risk of oversimplifying here it is. The Bulldogs opened the season 11-0 so we are talking about a team here that is 10-12 their last 22 games. Conversely, the Panthers opened the season with a 1-3 mark so they had won 75% of their games (21-7 run) prior to the loss to big bad Duke in the ACC Tourney. I realize the Bulldogs also played powerful Alabama in their SEC Tourney loss. but the point is simply that Pitt has plenty of confidence here and yet one could argue that Miss St has become accustomed to mediocrity this season their their run since that 11-0 start. I also like the fact that both teams faced a solid Vandy team this season and the Panthers were ahead by 1 when the Commodores sank two free throws with 1 second left to win the game. Conversely, the Bulldogs were down quite big much of the 2nd half in their 5 point loss at Vandy which felt not even as close as that final score shows. We have value here with a scrappy ACC team that is going to play very hard here and be very hard to put away. At the same time, I feel the pressure is more on Mississippi State here as they lost in first round of NIT last year and are desperate to fend off another early exit. Conversely, the Panthers are a team on the rise this season playing without fear or pressure after last season's ugly 11-21 disaster. 10* PITTSBURGH +2.5

NCAA Tuesday 10* Top Play Southeast Missouri State Redhawks +4 vs Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders @ 6:40 ET - Lets face it. This is a match-up involving a pair of teams from a pair of weak conferences. I like a couple things though that sway this match-up in favor of the Redhawks. First off, we are getting 4 points and is nice to have the points on your side in what could be a tight finish. Secondly, speaking of tight finishes, SE Mo St had a 6 point lead with about a minute to go in their conference championship game. That game ended up going to OT and the Redhawks even trailed by 4 at one point in the OT. They rallied to win the game by 7 and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tourney. That kind of game and the finish it had is a huge boost for confidence. Thirdly, and definitely a last but NOT least, all the pressure is on the Islanders here. Texas A&M CC is supposed to win this game. Not only because they are favored but because they were here last year too and lost to Texas Southern in the First Four. Simply put, the Islanders must win this game or it will be a a major disappointment. That, ladies and gentlemen, is huge pressure. Not only that, they lost Terrion Murdix to a season-ending injury in their Conference Championship Game win. He is finished for the season and their season will end tonight most likely anyway. He is their starting point guard and leads the team in assists AND steals AND at the guard position he is the top rebounder. This is a major loss you don't replace so fast. Look for a loose and relaxed Redhawks team to topple a pressure-filled injury-hampered Islanders team in this one. 10* SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE +4

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers +6 vs Houston Cougars @ 3:15 ET - Ton of value here with Memphis. The Tigers are 25-8 this season and 2 of the losses came in OT (one was double OT) and overall, Memphis has only 2 loss by more than 6 points this entire season out of 33 games! One of those was by 7 points and one of them was by 8 points. So the point is, getting 6 points here, we are virtually guaranteed of at least having a chance to cover this game in terms of how all 33 of their other 33 games have played out this season! I like the double revenge angle here and the fact that Memphis was able to coast yesterday in a win by a 40-point margin. The Cougars are, of course, one of the best teams in the nation but the Tigers have given them more trouble than anyone else this season and this is one of those situations where third time absolutely could be the charm. Either way, even if the #1 ranked team in the country does not lose this game SU look for them to at least lose it ATS. Grab the points with the underdog in this one. 10* MEMPHIS +6

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Vanderbilt +6 vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 3:30 ET - The Commodores are starting to believe they can do this! This Vanderbilt team has been red hot for a long-time and has carried that into this tournament and they will not let up here! Vandy has won 10 of 11 games and now just knocked off Kentucky. Also, unlike A & M, they did not have to rally back in yesterday's action like the Aggies did. Certainly there is a chance that the Texas A & M rally yesterday took a little something out of them for today. The Aggies were down double digits in the 2nd half of their win over Arkansas. Remember they were also losing to Alabama with under 5 minutes to go in their prior game in this SEC tourney. So the point is, how much will the Aggies have left here PLUS it is the Aggies that are laying 6 points in this match-up. I love having the points with this scrappy underdog Vandy. The Commodores led yesterday's 2nd half throughout in the eventual 7 point win over Kentucky. That was also the case in their win over LSU. This team is truly the definition of a "live dog" in a match-up like this with the Aggies. Yes, Texas A & M won the regular season meeting but they were at home for that. Also, that 6-point loss was a tie game with less than 2 minutes to go. 10* VANDERBILT +6

CBB Friday 10* Top Play Marquette Golden Eagles +4 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6:30 ET - Marquette won in overtime yesterday so they have no chance to win this game. Seriously that is what the betting markets seem to think with the Huskies now a 4 point favorite in this one. Both Connecticut and the Golden Eagles had scares yesterday and certainly Marquette had the tougher time. However, the fact the Huskies nearly blew all of a 26 point lead is a bit of a concern. Yes they won the game by 7 but they outscored the Friars by 21 points from three-point land. In other words, that was certainly a factor in the final margin. Also, I like the fact that the shooting edge helped mask the fact they had twice as many turnovers as Providence did. The point is that UConn is now over-valued here. I like the fact that the Golden Eagles did not shoot well from beyond the arc yesterday and yet still hung on for the win. All of this has led to line value here as this is a team that relies on its outside shot and odds suggest they will shoot better here today and the Huskies will regress. That is simply a regression to the mean today on Friday. 10* MARQUETTE +4

CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns -6 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - The Cowboys knocked off the rival Sooners yesterday to advance to face the Longhorns today. Texas has the rest edge here and also a confidence edge since they knocked off Kansas to close out the regular season. The Horns also loaded with confidence as it pertains to this match-up thanks to knocking off Oklahoma State by a double digit margin in each of their two regular season meetings. Texas is having a fantastic season and only has 2 losses to unranked foes this season. The Longhorns performed well against ranked teams too but the point is they were practically unbeatable (16-2) in games against unranked foes. As for the Cowboys, they were 3-9 against ranked teams this season. Also, Oklahoma State had lost 5 straight games before winning their regular season finale and then opening the Big 12 tourney with a win over Oklahoma. Yes, we have the matter of covering the spread here but first key to that is getting a SU win and, based on the numbers above and the situation, you can see why I am confident of that. Each of the Cowboys last 5 road losses was by 8 or more points. 10* TEXAS -6 

CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes -3 or -3.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 2:30 ET - Iowa is off a loss and they have been great off a loss this season including a tightener that has them nearly perfect in this role this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 14 or less points. They are rested here and taking on a Buckeyes team that had to battle it out with the Badgers yesterday. Keep in mind, Ohio State had lost 15 of 18 games before getting the win over Wisconsin yesterday. They take a big step up in level of opponent now as they face the high-scoring Hawkeyes after facing the slow-paced Badgers. Look for Iowa to be aggressive and look to run the Buckeyes right out of the arena as they catch them in the 2nd game of a B2B spot. Ohio State had a recent 9-game losing streak and then also had another loss in their regular season finale. All 10 of those losses by 4 or more points and I am confident this will be an 11th straight loss by 4 or more points. 10* IOWA -3 or -3.5 

CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - The Buckeyes won 1 road game all season long! This is a neutral site game but the fact is that means both teams are traveling and it was the Badgers that were better on the road this season. In fact, Wisconsin won 3 of their last 5 road games this season and that included a win at Ohio State. Not only that, both losses were in OT and one of those was a loss at Michigan that only went to OT because of a 3-pointer at the buzzer of regulation. The fact is the Badgers did lose in regulation time of any of their final 5 road games and very easily could have a 5-game road winning streak heading into this one. Again, compare this to an Ohio State team that has ONE WIN on the road this ENTIRE SEASON. The Badgers are the better defensive team in this match-up. I feel Ohio State is getting some attention from the betting masses here because of the revenge angle and the fact the Buckeyes are the higher-scoring team. But this one sets up to be another grinder and the Buckeyes don't have a key inside player, Zed Key, like they did for the first meeting with the Badgers when they dominated the glass. That said, I feel we have exceptional line value here as this line was around a pick'em but now has Badgers getting 2.5 points here. 10* WISCONSIN +2.5

CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm -6 vs Butler Bulldogs @ 3 ET - So this is the Big East tourney so it is a neutral site game yet it is really not neutral for the Red Storm as they split their home games each season between Carnesecca Arena and here at Madison Square Garden. That said, this is a significant edge here for St John's and they already beat the Bulldogs by double digits at Carnesecca Arena earlier this season. Also, 4 of the last 6 regular season home games for the Red Storm were here at Madison Square Garden so big edge here. Not only was St John's 11-6 at home and Butler 3-9 on the road this season, the Bulldogs were frequently blown out of games. This is just not a very good Butler team this season and their 3 wins in their season-ending 3-9 run were all by a margin of 2 or less points. Conversely, their 17 losses this season were by an average margin of defeat of 18 points and all the losses were by 6 or more points! Look for the Red Storm to take advantage of the home court edge here and pull away for a big-margin win in the 2nd half. 10* ST JOHN'S -6

CBB Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland State Vikings -2.5 vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers @ 9:30 ET - This is a neutral site game and I love the fact that the Vikings are favored here even though they lost both the regular season meetings. This is certainly no mistake by the odds makers. The fact is that this is a double revenge spot for Cleveland State and the Vikings have won 12 of 16 games. The Panthers have lost each of last two road games and even lost at home to a very bad Green Bay team last month. Milwaukee won the first meeting in OT thanks to scoring 15 more points from 3-point land in that game. They then won the 2nd game thanks to the Vikings having one of the worst shooting days you can imagine. The Vikes had 74 shots from the field compared to just 57 for the Panthers but made just 3 of 20 three pointers plus they only hit 13 of 25 at free throw line. Despite all this, Cleveland State still only lost the game by a single digit margin. That says a lot for sure. This is a big part of the reason the Vikings are now favored here and they had plenty of opportunities to win each of the first two games and will make up for all that here in tourney action. The third time will be the charm and I look for them to get the SU win and also cover the short number along the way! 10* CLEVELAND STATE -2.5

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats +5.5 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7:30 ET - Scarlet Knights off devastating road loss at Minnesota as Rutgers led that game by 10 points with under a minute and a half to go and ended up losing the game. That is a hard defeat to bounce back from. Now they host a Northwestern team that is off a tough OT loss to Penn State. That is a tough loss to bounce back from too but the Wildcats are getting a handful of points here and are a scrappy defensive-minded team and that Rutgers loss was truly of the devastating variety. With the Cats having lost 3 straight games for the first time this season, they will be fully focused on getting back into the win column here in the regular season finale. The Scarlet Knights have lost each of their last two games so their home has hardly been a fortress for them of late and I feel we have great line value with the sizable points here considering the key factors with this one. 10* NORTHWESTERN +5.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Rhode Island Rams +3.5 vs Davidson Wildcats @ 8 ET - The Rams are 7-7 SU at home this season. The Wildcats are 4-6 on the road this season. So, on the surface with Davidson having a much better record overall and opening up at nearly a pick'em, they look like the play here. Sure enough everyone jumped all over them and the line is up to a  3.5 on the Wildcats in this one. Davidson, however, has not been very strong on the road and Rams have been a rather strong home team this season plus they have been done in by some tighter losses this season that has impacted their record. Rhode Island is only 6-5 SU in their last 11 home games but 2 of those losses by just 1 point and another loss was in OT. Davidson will have their hands full here as Rams will show up big here in their home finale. Rhode Island is almost always very tough to beat on their home floor and that should be the case again here as the Rams are off a road win but had lost 3 straight at home and want to make up for that here. One loss by 1 point and another loss in OT at home. Here the Rams get it done in their home finale. 10* RHODE ISLAND +3.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns -3 vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 4 ET - Kansas already wrapped up the #1 spot in the Big 12 Conference for the regular season. This could be a tough spot for the Jayhawks to match the intensity of the Longhorns. Texas enters this one in a 3-way tie for the #2 spot in the Big 12 but, even more importantly, this is their home finale and they enter this game off B2B losses. That means an extra intense effort from the Horns in this one and adding to the intensity is that this is a revenge game from an 88-80 loss at Kansas earlier this season. That was the most points that UT allowed in a road game all season long. The Horns are 16-1 at home this season and, even though the Jayhawks have won 7 straight games you can see why Texas is favored here per all the key factors in this one. Lay it with the Longhorns. 10* TEXAS -3

CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Valparaiso Beacons +2.5 vs Murray State Racers @ 7 ET in MVC Tournament 1st Round in St Louis, MO - Why is this line 2.5 is the million dollar question here? This makes absolutely no sense. The Racers were just favored by 6.5 at home and and also favored by 3.5 when they faced the Beacons at Valparaiso earlier this season. Yes the most recent win came in OT for the Racers in the final game of the regular season as they defeated these same Beacons by just 1 point. But this line really looks funny to me. Valparaiso has lost 4 straight games and 7 of last 8 and they are 5-15 in conference action while Murray State is 11-9 in conference action and has won 3 of last 4 games. So the fact is this is a trap line. Many will be looking at the Racers here but a sharp book I follow also has this line down at a 2 which also says a lot. This looks like a great spot for Valparaiso to score the upset. Do not let the line fool you. Yes, the Beacons have struggled to get wins but they have been on the cusp and 3 of last 7 losses have been in OT and another regulation loss was by just a single point. In the most recent loss to Murray State, Valparaiso actually had 9 more field goal attempts in the game but were outscored by 11 at the free throw line and that certainly impacted the final outcome. On a neutral court, the Beacons should shoot better than they did in that game plus Murray State won't have such a big free throw edge either. 10* VALPARAISO +2.5

CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns +2.5 @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - This line opened up around a pick'em. This is despite TCU being 12-4 at home this season and Texas having a losing record on the road for the season. As I expected, the betting markets are jumping on the Horned Frogs and so now we can get +2.5 with the Longhorns in this one. Texas is coming off a loss to Baylor. That sets this up perfect (literally!) as UT has not lost B2B game this entire season. Texas is 6-0 when coming off a loss this season and now takes on a Horned Frogs team off a 1-point win. TCU, prior to that win, had lost 6 of 8 games. Also, if you look at TCU's last 8 games, they were solid defensively against Kansas but allowed an average of 76 points in the other 7 games. The Longhorns are not only 6-0 SU when off a loss this season, they have allowed an average (not including OT points of course) of only 59 points in those 6 games. As you can see, Texas responds well off a loss and definitely tends to D up when off a defeat! Overall, the Longhorns have allowed just 65.5 ppg last 6 games. Love the situation and fading the line move. Yes this is a revenge game for the Horned Frogs because they lost in Austin earlier this season but revenge tends to be over-played. Horns aren't going to lay down here after losing to the Bears. 10* TEXAS +2.5

NCAAB Tuesday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates +2 vs Villanova Wildcats @ 8:30 ET - The Pirates are at home off B2B losses. Seton Hall is 3-0 this season when they are at home and on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Also, Villanova is 4-8 on the road this season while the Pirates are a solid 10-5 at home this season and this is their home finale. The Wildcats have surprised with wins in 5 of their last 6 games but they still are just 2-4 this season when they are entering a road game and coming off a victory. Give Nova some credit for sure too but in the win over Xavier, the Musketeers were sloppy and had twice as many turnovers. That was before the win over Creighton which saw the Bluejays make just 19% of their three pointers. This as set up great line value here. 10* SETON HALL +2

Horizon League Tourney 10* Top Play IPFW Mastodons +5.5 @ Detroit Mercy Titans @ 7 ET - I like the scrappy Mastodons to get revenge here. If they fall short, I do expect at least a cover in this one! IPFW is actually 7-7 SU in road games this season and they had some impressive Horizon League wins this season too. However, they got blasted for one of their worst losses this season when they lost 85-52 at Detroit! Having also lost to the Mercy Titans when they hosted them, Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne is out for revenge big time here. With the success that IPFW has had on the road this season plus the double revenge (including big loss) angle here, this one sets up well for an upset. That said, I am happy to have the handful of points. Note that other than the ugly loss at Detroit, the Mastodons had only 4 Horizon League losses and 3 of the 4 were by 5 or less points. Happy to grab the underdog here. The Titans are 8-13 SU last 21 games and will struggle just to win this game let alone cover the spread. Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne will shoot much better than they did in their other trip to Detroit! 10* IPFW Mastodons +5.5

CBB Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 9 ET - This line looks funny, does it not? Baylor is a solid team in the upper half of the Big 12 standings and facing an Oklahoma State team that is in the lower half of the Big 12 standings and yet the line opened in the pick'em range. Of course you know what this usually means...in other words, do not fall for the trap! The fact is that the Bears have played 3 straight ranked teams and have another one, Iowa State, on deck to wrap the regular season at home. Also, Baylor is off huge win versus rival Texas in most recent game. This is a tricky spot for the Bears while it is a great spot to back the Cowboys. Note that Oklahoma State is angry off 4 straight losses. This game is in Stillwater, OK and this is a proud school that draws fans well here and this is their home finale. Last but not least, this is a revenge game for the Cowboys also as they lost by 16 at Baylor earlier this season. Ideal set-up for payback here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5

Atlantic Sun Tourney Monday 10* Top Play North Florida Ospreys -4.5 vs Bellarmine @ 7 ET in Lynchburg, VA - North Florida just beat Bellarmine by a dozen in a match-up just a few days ago and it was no fluke. The Ospreys dominated the rebounding battle and that was a key to the win. Even though the ASUN decided to have this game at a neutral site, since the winner faces Liberty here in Lynchburg VA tomorrow, I really like North Florida's odds on advancing here. Of course we must cover the 4.5 point spread too but note that Bellarmine's 8 of last 10 losses have all been by double digit margins! Conversely, the Ospreys enter this game having an exceptional month as they are 6-2 with each of the 2 losses by just 2 points. I love the competitiveness of this North Florida team as evidenced in the post-game melee after a recent tough 2-point road loss at Austin Peay. This Ospreys team has the rebounding edge and edge in blocked shots over Bellarmine. The Knights play a smaller lineup emphasizing guard play but just like the recent meeting, it will not work again here either. The bigger Ospreys dominate again. Bellarmine won this tournament last year but their top two players from that team are gone. That is why the Knights had a much less impressive season this year and I feel this hungry Ospreys team is built well to advance. 10* NORTH FLORIDA -4.5

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers +6.5 @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3 ET - The Shockers have been an anomaly this season as they buck the trend of home dominance in College Basketball. I am talking SU not ATS. I love grabbing road dogs in CBB and fading home faves in CBB as a general rule but Wichita State has taken things to another level this season. Yes I am still going to grab the points here and go ATS with this play but check out these SU stats involving the Shockers. Note that Wichita State is 7-9 SU in home games this season and 6-3 SU in road games! The trend is showing no signs of going away either as the road team has prevailed in 8 of last 9 Shockers games! The only exception was a double-OT win for Wichita State at home. Look for this road dominance to continue here as the Shockers have won 4 straight road games and they are seeking revenge for a loss at home versus Tulane earlier this season. The Green Wave are 5-3 SU last 8 games and 3 of their 5 wins were in OT so they have been far from dominant of late. They just got embarrassed at Houston and could be hanging heads a bit here as they also got knocked out of AAC Tourney by the Cougars last season. That game had extra meaning as a result but they continue to get pummeled by Houston. Of course the Cougars are at another level but Tulane was not even able to compete for very long in that game. Conversely the Shockers lost by just single digits when they faced Houston this season and they were right in the game even with just a few minutes left. The Shockers lost the first meeting this season in OT to Tulane when they blew a double digit lead at home. It is time for payback here and the Shockers are in their element for sure as a road underdog here. 10* WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS +6.5

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +5 @ Michigan Wolverines @ 2 ET - This is Michigan's regular season home finale and I get that. However, this team is off B2B big wins. They had the emotional home win over rival Michigan State. They then followed that up by going on the road and getting an upset win at Rutgers after trailing by double digits early. The Wolverines do have revenge here against the Badgers but this Wisconsin team makes for a scrappy underdog and I like them in this spot against a Michigan team off B2B big wins. The Badgers are 4-3 in the month of February and one of the losses was in OT and the other two losses were by 2 and 1 point, respectively. That means at the end of regulation time, the 3 games in which Wisconsin lost, the net margin of the 3 losses was 3 points! The Badgers will again be ultra-competitive here and have allowed 61 points or less in regulation time of 7 of last 8 games! Michigan shot well in the win over Michigan State but has been held to 59 ppg in their other 3 games the past two weeks. The Badgers will be in this "grinder" all the way! 10* WISCONSIN +5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 @ New Mexico Lobos @ 10 ET - Great spot for San Diego State. They have one home loss this season. It came against the Lobos. This is a big revenge game for the Aztecs. They are a rock solid 7-1 in true road games this season. New Mexico has a great home court and a strong record there this season but the losses have all been more recent as they started the season 10-0 there and then have gone 4-3 since at home! Overall, the Lobos have been struggling as they enter this game having lost 6 of 8 games and that included a pair of home losses including most recent one by double digits versus Wyoming. The Aztecs are a ranked team and are the top team in the Mountain West Conference and they will get their payback here and the line is small enough that I am confident we get the cover as well. In fact, San Diego State has 22 wins this season and only 2 of them were by less than 3 points. Keep in mind also that, as strong as the Aztecs season has been, they still have not locked up the #1 spot in the standings for the regular season so they have plenty of motivation here in addition to the revenge angle. Lay it! 10* SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers -7 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 7:30 ET - This is a revenge game and is a "buy low" situation on Purdue. As a result of having been cooled off in recent weeks we are getting solid line value here. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers were sloppy in the loss at Indiana earlier this month. They had too many turnovers plus they also were hurt by poor free throw shooting and did make a modest, though unimpressive, 6 of 18 from 3 point land. Purdue did dominate the glass in that one and I expect rebounding, as well the facets of the game, to be dominated by the Boilermakers in this revenge rematch. Purdue is 13-1 this season in home games and Indiana is 4-7 this season in road games. Those are SU records of course but note that Boilermakers have 24 wins SU wins this season and 75% of them (18) have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Hoosiers have 9 losses this season and 6 of them have been by a double digit margin. This one will be too. Blowout revenge at home for a Boilermakers team that is still looking to wrap up the regular season top spot in the Big Ten standings as they have not quite done so yet. 10* PURDUE -7

CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 @ NC State Wolfpack @ 9 ET - Fantastic spot here as Wake Forest is off a 9-point loss at Miami as the Hurricanes just would not miss in that game. Also, the Demon Deacons have revenge here for a 2 point home loss to NC State which is actually one of FIVE losses for WF this season that have come by just 2 points! The fact is that Wake Forest just does not get blown out very often at all and they are actually catching NC State at the perfect time to get an upset win of their own here. The Wolfpack are off a big win over rival North Carolina. They also finish the season with a revenge game against Clemson after this one plus then close it out with big game versus Duke. So this is a true "sandwich spot" game where NC State could look right past the revenge minded Demon Deacons. Prior to that win over Tar Heels, the Wolfpack had played 16 ACC games and only 6 of them were wins by more than a 4 point margin. This game very likely to go down to the wire and could be decided by just a single possession one way or the other late. The fact is potential upset here and definitely great spot for value with the sizable points. 10* WAKE FOREST +6.5

CBB 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +2.5 @ Oklahoma Sooners @ 9 ET - Red Raiders have won 3 straight games and 5 of last 7. Texas Tech also has revenge from a home loss to the Sooners earlier this season. Oklahoma, other than the OT win over the Red Raiders, has gone 2-11 in their other games in Conference action this season. They are at the basement of the Big 12 standings. Sooners also are off a disappointing OT loss at rival Texas so that could leave them a little flat here. Not only did their win over Texas Tech earlier this season come in OT, Oklahoma also had a 1-point win in Big 12 action over West Virginia. The point is that they have only one convincing win in 14 Big 12 games this season. That said, excellent line value here with the revenge minded Red Raiders plus the points. 10* TEXAS TECH +2.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm +7.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 7:30 ET - I love spots for home dogs like this. Creighton is off a loss to Providence so some will look to back the Bluejays here. However, the Jays are in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the Big East and they have a game on deck at home versus first-place Marquette on deck! Coming off games against ranked teams in UConn and Providence plus having another ranked team on deck with the 1st place Golden Eagles up next, this is a tough spot for Creighton. Also, the Bluejays hammered the Red Storm ruthlessly when these teams met earlier this season at Creighton as the Jays put up 104 points against them! When a team puts up 100+ on you in a college game you do NOT forget about that team. The Red Storm will be ready to exact revenge here and they are a quality home team. Note that St John's is 11-4 SU in home games this season while the Bluejays are 3-5 SU in road games this season. Yes, the Jays are off a loss and the Red Storm are off a win that came in double OT. However, St John's confidence is growing again with B2B victories and they want revenge here and they catch Creighton in a clear lookahead spot! An outright upset would not surprise me here but I am looking for at least a home dog cover in this one ATS to get us the cash! 10* ST JOHN'S +7.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Hofstra Pride -12.5 @ Stony Brook Seawolves @ 6:30 ET - The formula is simple for Hofstra at this point. Win out and they earn the regular season title for the Colonial Athletic Association. That is because they are currently tied with Charleston for the top spot in the conference but they already beat them (at Charleston!) in their only meeting this season. That also ended a 20-game win streak for the Cougars. The fact is that this Pride team is very strong and I see Hofstra rolling to an easy win here. Their final game of the regular season is next week at home against a weak Northeastern team so there is no way they will look past their final road challenge. Also, Hofstra is facing a Stony Brook team that is off a win and only ONE TIME this entire season have the Seawolves managed back to back wins. Of course you can tell by this line that, indeed, B2B wins unlikely for Stony Brook here. The key is covering this big number but I have no qualms about that because the Pride have made big-margin wins a regular thing for sure! Hofstra has won 15 of 17 games and 13 of the 15 wins by 13 or more points! We can cover this 12.5 as the only only tight wins were versus Towson and Charleston. Those two teams are a combined 24-7 in CAA action this season! The Seawolves are 6-9 in CAA games and 10-18 overall on the season. This is a complete mismatch and the Pride coasted to a 21 point margin of victory in the first meeting. Also, the Seawolves have lost big to the top teams in the conference (and finally face Charleston next week) and Stony Brook should get hammered again here. 10* HOFSTRA -12.5

CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -6.5 vs UCF Knights @ 8 ET - Earlier this season these teams met at UCF and the Knights forced OT with a late 3-pointer. That led to an eventual 3 point win in double-OT for Central Florida in a memorable game that the Tigers certainly have not forgotten. Keep in mind, Memphis was outscored by 30 points from 3-point land in that game and yet still lost the game by only 3 points! Don't be surprised if the Tigers have the better shooting numbers from deep in this one as they are at home where they are 11-1 this season and note that UCF is only 3-4 this season on the road. I feel we have the much stronger team here plus line value considering they are at home and laying a very reasonable number. Note that the Knights, after that crazy 2-OT win over Memphis, then lost 5 straight games! That was followed by a 2-game winning streak that UCF now brings into this game. However, those two victories for the Knights were against teams that are a combined 7-20 in AAC action. Memphis has a 9-3 record in conference games! Yes, they are #2 in the conference and they have a game at #1 Houston on deck. However, there is no way they will look past this revenge game with UCF and they are at home and they catch UCF off a rare blowout win. Memphis brings it every night. That is why their 6 losses have all been by single digits and the average margin of defeat only 3.5 points. They will be ready for payback here at home and UCF gets a quick dose of reality here after taking advantage of a bad Tulsa team in most recent game. Now is back to reality and playing at Memphis is tough. The Tigers get payback here at home. Kendric Davis and DeAndre Williams given the Tigers a great inside-out combo and lead the way here at home as Williams has been playing extremely well and Davis put up 42 points in the last game versus the Knights! 10* MEMPHIS -6.5

CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Rhode Island Rams +8.5 vs VCU Rams @ 7 ET - VCU is off a loss and they are the top team in the A 10 so, of course, they are attracting some market attention here. However, it has led to exceptional line value on the road dog here in my opinion. First off, only 2 times out of 6 has VCU - when off a loss this season - responded with a win by more than 4 points! Also, VCU is off big games versus St Louis and Dayton and they have Fordham on deck. Those 3 teams combined with VCU are the top 4 teams in the A 10. Don't be surprised if VCU underestimates Rhode Island here. The betting markets certainly seem to have undervalued RI in this spot. RI actually is 7-5 SU at home this season plus they have wins over La Salle, Dayton, St Bonaventure and Fordham on this floor! The combined conference record of those 4 teams is 30-20 and 2 of those 4 teams are two of the top teams in the conference. None of those teams have a losing conference record on the season. The point is that RI has been quite solid at home this season and it is just their horrible road record that drags them down. Also, we do NOT need them to win this game outright. We just need them to cover a spread that, in my mind, is very inflated for a road team that is in a sandwich spot of big games! 4 of the 5 Rhode Island home losses this season have been by 7 or less points. The average margin of those 4 home defeats was only 4 points! 3 of the 5 VCU road wins by 7 or less points and average margin of victory of those 3 road wins was only 4 points. So big home dog value here in a scheduling spot that is a tough one for VCU who also could be rusty because they have not played in a week! 10* RHODE ISLAND +8.5

CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers +6.5 @ Auburn Tigers @ 7 ET - This line has already moved toward Auburn. I do understand the move as they are at home and they catch Missouri off the huge upset win on a last-second 3-pointer at Tennessee. However, Missouri actually led that game big early in the 2nd half and played a very strong game overall against the Volunteers. I know the mindset the betting markets have is now Missouri will be flat off the buzzer-beating win but I disagree. This Missouri team is rock solid this season and playing much better defense and piling up steals. Missouri has won 6 of 8 games and that included 3 wins over ranked opponents. Speaking of ranked teams, this is the first time these teams have met since Missouri suffered a 1-point loss to Auburn at home last season when Auburn had just become the #1 ranked team in the country. This is not the same Auburn team this season and Missouri will get their revenge. Yes, Auburn is still a high-quality team but they actually enter this game having lost 5 of 6 games! So the point is, here you have a match-up of two teams that have been heading opposite directions plus the hotter team is on the road and off a last-second win so you get line value as well as market-inflated value. The other helper on this game is the fact that it is a revenge game! All of those are factors in favor of Mizzou and I love the fact we are getting a half-dozen points here plus the hook. This Mizz team is really starting to believe in themselves and they have a ton of momentum right now. 10* MISSOURI +6.5

CBB Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +4 or +4.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - The Red Raiders are so much better than their 2-10 Big 12 Conference record shows. That is why they opened as a very small home dog here. Now the line is all the way up to the 4 or 4.5 range and that does not surprise me at all. Texas is a strong team of course and at the top of the conference but this is a rivalry game and it is a revenge game after the Red Raiders lost at the Moody Center in Austin by just 2 points early this season. That tight loss has been a recurring them for Texas Tech this season but they are turning the corner now. They have won 3 of 5 games and are coming off a home win over a solid Kansas State team. That was a tight win over the Wildcats and that does wonders for the Red Raiders confidence as they managed to hang on in a tight game and get the job done. Note that, in addition to winning 3 of 5 games, Texas Tech lost by just 3 points in most recent road game and, against, the loss to Longhorns was by just 2 points! The Horns are 9-3 in Conference games and the Red Raiders are 2-10 so this line looks like a gift to most bettors but we know better. This game priced this way for a reason and we take advantage with a hungry home dog seeking revenge! Keep in mind, 5 of the Longhorns 9 Big 12 wins were very close wins and the average margin of victory of those was just 3 points. I am sensing upset here but note also that UT is just 2-3 in last 5 road games and one of those wins by just 3 points. The Red Raiders have gone to a smaller lineup and are having success with it and forcing a lot of turnovers. Texas has another big rival, Oklahoma, on deck plus that is followed by final 4 games all against Big 12 teams that are currently ranked. So this could be a bit of a trap game for the Longhorns after they already beat Texas Tech this season.  This is a payback game for the Red Raiders and I look for them to get their revenge. 10* TEXAS TECH +4 or +4.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates +5 or +5.5 @ Villanova Wildcats @ 8 ET - I know Seton Hall is on the road for this game but this is still a high-value spot especially after the line move. I have been saying this all season long and it is so true...Villanova is just not the same team they use to be when Jay Wright was patrolling the sideline. The Wildcats have a losing record this season overall plus are just 5-8 in Big East games. Here is the big key with that record too. Villanova's 5 wins in conference action have included St John's (2), Georgetown (2), and DePaul. Those teams have a combined record of 8-34 in Big East games and are the 3 lowest teams in the standings. Even 5-10 (Big East record) Butler beat the Wildcats. Now they are facing an 8-6 (Big East record) Seton Hall team that is off a loss by a double digit margin and has gone 5-1 this season when off a loss by double digits. So the set-up here is perfect, the line move toward Nova is only adding value for us, and the Pirates lost at home to Creighton because the Bluejays made a ridiculous 12 of 20 three pointers! The result is line value in this bounce back spot here. 10* SETON HALL +5 or +5.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Duke Blue Devils +6 or +6.5 @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 4 ET - Yes the Cavaliers are off huge win versus NC State but the Wolfpack actually had 10 more field goal attempts in the game plus outrebounded Virginia. We are getting line value here because prior to that win, if you look at the Cavs 7-2 run that preceded, none of those 9 teams have fewer losses on the season. Now certainly the Blue Devils are not the same team this season that they typically are. However, they are definitely still a high-quality program loaded with talent and they are off a bad loss that was not a huge surprise as it was on the heels of a huge win over North Carolina. After that big win over rival Tar Heels, the Blue Devils fell short badly in their next game at Miami. However, Duke is 6-0 this season when off a SU loss. The Blue Devils will respond here again off a loss plus you know they want this game badly as it is Virginia that is currently topping the ACC standings and that is a position the Blue Devils are use to occupying. I have a lot of respect for the Cavs but look at the game they are off of and the game Duke is off of. Look at the situation here and the line value. This will be one of the toughest tests the Cavs will have this season and yet the game is not really priced that way in my opinion. I also like the fact that the move here on this line has gone toward Virginia. That means even more value with the underdog Blue Devils. I am expecting Duke to improve to a perfect 7-0 SU this season when off a loss. I do expect the outright upset here. However, I will grab the points with the road dog as added insurance. The play here is 10* DUKE +6 or +6.5

NCAA Thursday 10* Top Play USC Trojans +4.5 @ Oregon Ducks @ 11 PM ET - The Trojans have won 4 straight and 13 of 16 games. Also 2 of those 3 losses were to ranked teams. Not only is Oregon unranked, the Ducks are just 7-5 last 12 games and the first 4 of those 5 losses were to unranked teams. Of course Oregon gets some line shading here for home court but this is just too much here. USC is too strong a team to be getting 4.5 points here in this one. Southern Cal has a great shot at the outright upset here and if they do fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. Note that the road team won both meetings between these teams last season. Also, the most recent meeting prior to that actually was in the Big Dance in 2021 and USC won that match-up by double digits. The Trojans are playing with a lot of confidence right now and Oregon is off a win but is 2-5 SU the last 7 times when off a win. The Ducks just have not been as consistent this season plus they have Pac-12 leaders UCLA on deck and the Bruins already beat Oregon this season too. So the point is that this is not necessarily a great scheduling spot for the Ducks. As for the Trojans, love their confidence level right now plus the fact they have been off since Saturday. That minimizes the travel aspect to this game and, once again, for the 3rd straight time in regular season action, look for the road team to prevail. I will grab the points here just in case and if Trojans do fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. 10* USC +4.5

CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames +12.5 @ Southern Illinois Salukis @ 8 ET - This is a very bad scheduling spot for Southern Illinois. Yes the Salukis are at home but they have a huge game on deck at Drake. Yes they already did beat the Bulldogs earlier this season but right now Drake is in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference and the Salukis know that is a big game that is awaiting them Saturday. Not only that, the Salukis lost all 3 games to Drake last season including in the MVC Tournament. That said, the Salukis could look right past this Flames team. Illinois-Chicago is certainly having a rough season but they are off a win and also have been much more competitive for a long time now! That is the key here is the line value with this large number when you consider this is a clear lookahead spot for Southern Illinois. Note that the Flames are just 2-10 last 12 games but only 3 of those losses by more than 10 points and here we are catching a dozen points plus the hook. Also, the last 5 losses for UIC all by 10 or less points and an average margin of defeat of only 6.6 points and one of those was in OT! So none of last 6 Flames games were losses by more than 10 points and this team, off a confidence-boosting win, will be tough to put away in this game. Look for UIC to hang around throughout this game! 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO +12.5

CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Indiana Hoosiers -4 vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 6:30 ET - As the saying goes, if it was too easy everyone would be doing it! That theory applies here. The Hoosiers were a 5 point favorite and are already down to a -4 in early market movement. Why? Because everyone knows they just knocked off the best team in the country when they beat Purdue this past weekend. So that's it, right? It is that easy? Just fade Hoosiers because they beat the #1 team in the country and the fans stormed the court after the game? Ladies and gentlemen, nothing is automatic in this business and nothing is truly easy. The fact here is a quote from Indiana star Trayce Jackson-Davis tells you the key info you really need to know here. What did he reference after the big win over the Boilermakers? Rutgers! Why? Because he was saying that ever since they got drilled by the Scarlet Knights early this season in their Big Ten opener they have toughened up and been a different team. All that said, and this revenge game being at home, you know Jackson-Davis and the Hoosiers are going to bring it in this game! They want payback for being held to just 48 points in the first match-up at Rutgers earlier this season. So this is a classic case where the public views this game in a certain way and the market moves it in the same way and we get line value fading the movement! I love spots like this and feel the Hoosiers get their revenge in a big way on their home court here. The Scarlet Knights have gone 2-4 in road games this season and the Hoosiers are 12-1 in home games! Rutgers last 3 Big Ten losses all by double digits and that includes 0-2 in last two road games. Hoosiers get payback for having one of their worst games of the season against these guys earlier this year. 10* INDIANA -4

CBB Monday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - Great spot for Kansas in this one. They are off a sloppy road loss at Iowa State but perhaps got caught looking ahead to this showdown with the team leading the Big 12. Texas is having a great season, even surviving the situation head coach Beard and now having an interim head coach on the sidelines. I did have the Longhorns here as one of my two plays Saturday but it was not an easy win for them at Kansas State. The Horns were down big to the Wildcats at halftime and had to rally back and it was a physical game and it used a lot of energy for UT in the eventual 3-point win. That makes this is a very tough spot for Texas and their win at Kansas State was their first win over a ranked foe that was not a home game for UT. Prior to defeating the Wildcats, the Longhorns other 3 non-home games versus ranked foes had seen them lose in a neutral site game against Illinois plus the Horns lost by double digits at Iowa State and at Tennessee. I feel sure the Jayhawks are going to bounce back strong here Monday after their ugly loss at Iowa State. Also note that the last 8 times Kansas has been off a loss in which they allowed 79 points or less, they have gone a perfect 8-0 in their next game. The Jayhawks get it done again here coming off a loss as the guys surrounding Wilson do a much better job in this home game than they did against the Cyclones Saturday. Home court matters in this key Big 12 battle and KU gets it done at home! 10* KANSAS -3.5

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers -5.5 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 3 ET - Tulsa is the worst team in the AAC. The Golden Hurricane have lost 10 of last 11 games and the average margin of defeat has been 14 points. Yes, Tulsa almost beat the Shockers at Wichita State but would you believe the Golden Hurricane were up huge in that game and yet still lost despite a crazy stat. The Shockers were 2 of 17 from three point land in that game and Tulsa was 10 of 22 from downtown. That means the Golden Hurricane outscored Wichita State by 24 points from beyond the arc and yet still lost the game by 4 points! I am sure that the Shockers are going to play much better here even though they are on the road and I am projecting a win by a double digit margin. A big key here is Wichita State enters this game angry off a loss. Believe it or not the Shockers are actually a fantastic 4-1 when they are on the road and coming off a loss! The most recent one was a big 13 point win at East Carolina and Tulsa is worse than the Pirates. Also, the only loss for Wichita State when in this situation was at Kansas State and, of course the Wildcats are a ranked Big 12 team that is having an excellent season. There is just a big disparity in these programs right now and I do not see the Shockers being denied off a loss and I look for Tulsa's knack for blowout losses to add another one to the list Sunday. 10* WICHITA STATE -5.5

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +10 @ Creighton Bluejays @ 7:30 ET - The Wildcats recently got Justin Moore back and he is a senior guard who is a key player for them. Villanova also has been a better team since Cam Whitmore joined the playing rotation at the start of the season. What is happening with this line here is that Creighton is over-valued. Yes, the Bluejays are known for playing well at home and have revenge from last year's Big East title loss. But the key here with Creighton is that they are laying double digits against a Nova team that is getting stronger and more confident and healthier. Yes they just lost at Marquette but they had key guys in foul trouble plus it was just the 2nd game for Moore since he came back. He'll be even better here. Note that Villanova is only 10-12 this season but the average margin of defeat is 6.5 points per loss and only one defeat was by more than 10 points. The Wildcats are 0-4 against ranked teams but no loss was by a double digit margin. This is just too many points here. The revenge angle for Creighton is making this line higher than it should be. The Bluejays only scored 63 against a bad Georgetown team in most recent game and, again, the Cats likely would have won at Marquette if not for foul trouble "slowing their roll" in that game. They will be very strong in this game as they are off B2B tight losses but have their team together again with Moore back in the lineup and it is showing in how competitive they have been against ranked foes in the last two games. That continues here and the points are just too much here for the Bluejays to be laying. 10* VILLANOVA +10

CBB Friday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes +2.5 @ Akron Zips @ 9 ET - Love this play a ton because the "deeper dive" here reveals key factors that the markets are likely missing here. The markets will look and see that these two teams are tied at the top of the MAC and have identical records in MAC games and then they will look at Akron being at home for this one where they are 11-0 this season. You don't think the odds makers know all these facts too? Yet they set the line at right around a pick'em on this game and, of course, everyone jumping in on the Zips here. Now the line is as high as a 2.5 as of early gameday morning. Now the key factors the odds makers (and yours truly) are considering here! The fact is that Akron lost to Ball State and has yet to play Toledo! Those are the 2 other top teams out of the 4 top teams in the league (with Zips and Golden Flashes being the other 2). As for Kent State, unlike the Zips, they beat Ball State and also they have played the Rockets and they beat them too! So the point is that the records may be identical in the MAC but the Zips have played the weaker in-conference schedule. Also, in terms of overall records, Akron has 6 losses and the average margin of defeat was 12.5 points and they did NOT play the tough non-conference schedule that Kent State did! The Golden Flashes faced both Gonzaga AND Houston and they nearly beat both of them outright! Overall, Kent State only has 2 other losses this season and one was by 2 points in non-conference action and the other was an upset at hands of Northern Illinois but the Huskies shot a ridiculously high percentage in that game including from 3-point land. So the point is all the boxes are checked that this is a HIGH VALUE spot for grabbing the points with Kent State and then you have the final "kicker" that pushes this over the top! The Golden Flashes lost to Akron in the Championship Game of the MAC Tourney and that sent the Zips to the Big Dance where they got to face UCLA in the NCAA Tourney while it sent the Golden Flashes to play in The Basketball Classic and to ponder "what could have been". So all these factors considered plus the rivalry aspect with these two teams and I love the underdog in this spot. 10* KENT STATE +2.5

CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Wright State Raiders +6.5 @ Youngstown State Penguins @ 7 ET - The Raiders are well-coached and they are use to being at the top of the Horizon League. Youngstown State is having an uncharacteristically strong season thus far. The result is exceptional line value here because the Penguins also have hit threes at a crazy high rate in last two wins and can not maintain that clip. You can bet Wright State will be guarding tight on the perimeter in this one. Youngstown State is tied at the top of the conference for the top spot but one of their 3 losses was to Northern Kentucky and that is who they have on deck next game and the Norse are tied with Penguins in a 3-way tie atop the league standings. Wright State is off B2B wins. Yes, those were home games but the Raiders also have won 3 straight road games and 4 of last 5 away from home. This is a high-quality well-coached team that still has sights set on making a major move up the standings. Keep in mind, this is one of 8 remaining conference games so there is still plenty of time to make a big move before the conference tourney starts at the end of this month. I am looking for a big push from this Raiders team and would not be surprised if they make it 3 straight league wins here but, at the very least, they stay inside this inflated number. The Penguins won at Wright State earlier this season by 11 points but they outscored them by 21 points from 3-point land. That is not happening again here. The Raiders get revenge and, if they don't win outright, they at least stay within a bucket or two in my opinion. Note that Youngstown State, other than the first win over the Raiders, is currently 4-3 SU against teams that currently have a .500 or better record in the Horizon League. The Penguins are over-rated right now. We take advantage. 10* WRIGHT STATE +6.5

CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -4 @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The Hokies are off B2B wins but they were at home. One of the wins was an upset of Duke so now this Virginia Tech team getting a little too much respect on the road here. Not only have they struggled in true road games all season long, the Hokies had lost 7 straight games overall prior to those B2B wins. So, yes, they started the season 11-1 but a lot has changed since then. Now they face a Miami team that is angry off a home loss to Pittsburgh in which the Panthers scored the final 11 points in the 3 point defeat! Ironically, the Hurricanes also blew their home game against the Hokies late last season in a game in which Virginia Tech rallied from a big 2nd half deficit. So the point is that this is a great spot to back a very angry Canes team! Also, Miami has gone 4-0 this season when off a loss. They will respond here and the point spread is small enough at 4 points that this is a very manageable number. The Hurricanes will be very determined off a loss and they catch Virginia Tech at the right time as Hokies on the road after B2B home wins following a 7-game slide. This one gets ugly. 10* MIAMI -4 

CBB Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 9 ET - I have been betting for 3 decades already. I have been a handicapper releasing plays to the public for 2 decades already. Possibly another decade to go with the handicapping and, as for sports betting, that will likely be a part of my life until I am laid to rest. Why the long intro? What is this all about? Well, I have always been a contrarian and will always be a contrarian as long as I am betting. Of course you can't be contrarian on every single game but the point is there are match-ups where it pays to scratch your head a bit and say "Wait, what is going on here?" and this is one of those. Now, of course, nothing is 100% in anything but being contrarian in the right spots pays off more than not long-term. This is one of those spots in my opinion. Just look at this match-up once! Iowa State is ranked #12 in the country and blasted the Red Raiders by 34 points in their meeting earlier this season and the Cyclones are 15-5 this season. They are basically a PICK'EM yes indeed a PICK'EM here against a Texas Tech team that is 0-8 in Big 12 games this season! So the odds makers must have really messed up here, eh? Of course not! This game is priced this way for a reason and I sense the Red Raiders will come up huge on their home floor and get a much-needed conference win! Texas Tech is off a non-conference win and Cyclones are off a loss so many will look at that and point to a play on ISU here. But note Iowa State has been struggling on the road recently and this Red Raiders team is VERY hungry to get that first conference win. Don't let the line lead you astray here, the home team is the bet! 10* TEXAS TECH +1.5

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Providence Friars -120 @ Villanova Wildcats @ Noon ET - The Wildcats are 4-5 in Big East games. They are not the same team they were when they were coached by Jay Wright. Also, their 4 wins are against two of the worst teams in the conference as they have a pair of victories against both Georgetown and St John's. Those two teams are a combined 4-16 in Big East action! Now Villanova is facing a Providence team that is 8-2 this season and we can get the Friars at right around a pick'em price! I will take it! Keep in mind this is also a double revenge game for the Friars as they lost both meetings last season and they were very close games. I know Villanova has played a lot of close games this season but close loss does not mean a win and the fact is the Cats keep falling just short against the better teams in the conference. That should continue here against a very determined visitor in this one. 10* PROVIDENCE -120

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers -5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 6 ET - The Volunteers were as high as a -7.5 favorite here and have dropped to a -5 and I love the line value here. Tennessee is a very strong team and home court can mean an awful lot in College Basketball to a team that is firing on all cylinders. The Vols are hot and they are at home here. Give credit to the Longhorns too as they are having a very strong season. However, they have lost 2 of last 3 games against ranked teams and this is a tough road venue for this Big 12/SEC Challenge match-up! The one game they did win in those last 3 against ranked teams came when they rallied from 18 down against TCU but the Horns were at home for that one. This is a whole other situation here and Tennessee has won 8 of 9 games and the only loss was when they shot a ridiculous 3 of 21 from three point land against Kentucky plus the Wildcats had a 25 to 10 edge in free throw attempts and yet the Volunteers only lost that game by 7 points. That says a lot right here and, as I have mentioned often in the past, I have a ton of respect for the odds makers. The Vols opened up as a bigger favorite with good season. The home team rolls big here! 10* TENNESSEE -5