Rickenbach March Madness *10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores +3.5 vs Wichita State @ 9:10 ET - There has been discussion that Vandy shouldn't be in this tournament. This Commodores team is better than their 19-13 record and you can bet that they are ready to prove the doubters wrong tonight. Vanderbilt had 6 losses by 5 points or less this season. As you would expect, the SEC team played a much tougher schedule than did the Shockers. Wichita State comes from the Missouri Valley Conference and certainly there a few quality teams in the MVC but there also were some exceptionally poor teams this season that helped the Shockers to pad their record. While Wichita State has some impressive numbers so too does Vanderbilt and the Commodores achieved their success (allowing 38.6% from field and 29.2% threes) against much tougher competition. Vandy is the much better shooting team as they have knocked down 46% this season (and 39% threes) while the Shockers have labored on offense at times and ended up shooting just 43% from the field and only 33% from beyond the arc. Wichita State went an ugly 1-5 ATS in neutral court games this season. Also, the Shockers were just 4-6 ATS in non-conference games while the Commodores went 7-4 ATS in non-conference action this season. Wichita State was held to 41% or less from the field in 5 of their last 6 conference games against teams with a winning record. Look for their offense to again bog down tonight and they won't be able to keep up with a Vandy team that averaged 80 points per game in their last 10 regular season games. The conference tourney loss to Tennessee happened because the Commodores overlooked the Volunteers. They won't overlook the Shockers. *10* VANDERBILT

Rickenbach March Madness *8* Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -5.5 vs Fairleigh Dickinson @ 6:40 ET - Florida Gulf Coast (FGC) has too much size inside for Fairleigh Dickinson (FD). Of course neither one of these teams plays in a powerhouse conference but the Northeast Conference (NEC) was particularly weak this season. Give credit to the Knights for getting hot at the right time but the Eagles are still the much better team defensively. That includes overall as well as defending the 3-ball. Of course neither one of these teams is involved in lined games very often but Fairleigh Dickinson has a long-term 6-8 ATS mark and ugly 9-20 SU mark in neutral court games. As for Florida Gulf Coast, the Eagles have a long-term 9-1 ATS mark in neutral court games. Also, the Eagles are, interestingly enough, on a 7-0 ATS run in Tuesday games the last 3 seasons combined. FGC is on a long-term 16-6 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. FD is on a 9-22 run the last 3 seasons against teams with a winning record. The Eagles are likely to have a huge edge on the boards in this one as well as a big advantage on points in the paint. The smaller frontcourt of the Knights is an issue and the athleticism of the Eagles results in edges across the board for the favorite in this one. This is a very manageable line. As a result, it is well worth pulling the trigger on this one. *8* FLORIDA GULF COAST 

Rickenbach March Madness *8* Jackson State Tigers +6 @ Sam Houston State @ 7:30 ET - Both of these teams lost late in their final games in their conference tournaments and this prevented getting into the Big Dance for each team. While this is deeply disappointing for both the Bearkats and the Tigers, I feel strongly that Jackson State is going to be the hungrier team here and will be fully prepared in terms of bouncing back in the College Insider Tournament. The Tigers head coach is in the last year of his contract and there is uncertainty as to what will happen for him. The team played their hearts out for him in the conference tourney and, although they fell a bucket short of being in the Big Dance, they won't stop playing here. While Sam Houston State has had some post-season games the past few seasons they still had their sights set on something much bigger. For Jackson State, they certainly have had a few disappointing seasons before this season turned into a surprisingly successful run in conference regular season action and in the conference tournament. With that said, and with the College Insider tournament certainly being a new challenge for these Tigers while it is certainly not so for the Bearkats, I look for Jackson State to be the much more motivated team here. Though they are on the road here, the Tigers conference tournament just wrapped up a short distance from here in Houston and this "road trip" is certainly no big deal for Jackson State. The hungry dog will give Sam Houston State all they can handle in Huntsville and an outright upset would not surprise. The Bearkats are 2-6 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s the past three seasons combined. Of course both of these teams are not often seen by the betting markets and Jackson State is traditionally undervalued by the markets. The Tigers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 lined games against teams with a winning record. *8* JACKSON STATE

Rickenbach March Madness *10* Top Play Memphis Tigers +5 vs Connecticut @ 3:15 ET - The Huskies took advantage of an over-matched Temple team yesterday but they finally are going to see the 4-OT game of Friday plus the fact this is their 3rd game in 3 days catch up with them here. Of course the Tigers are also playing their 3rd game in 3 days but they've had a much easier draw than UConn has. Memphis faced Tulsa and then Tulane and the Tigers were able to post blowout wins in each contest. As a result, Memphis has the much fresher legs coming into this game as the Tigers have been able to rest key players, etc. Even though the Huskies certainly want this game (who wouldn't?), they have likely already sealed their bid for the Big Dance. Conversely, the Tigers know they must get this win Sunday if they are to make the Big Dance and that means a huge effort can be expected here. The fresher legs and extra motivation will go a long way in this one. Memphis also has double revenge here as they did lose both games with Connecticut in the regular season. I certainly respect what the Huskies have done to get to this point but the fact they essentially have played 2 and 1/2 games in 2 days (because of that 4-OT game) means that this 3rd game in 3 days is really going to take its toll as they day goes on. The fresher team and certainly very hungry team, gets the job done as the dog in this one. Even though Avery Woodson is likely to miss this game, the Tigers did fine without him yesterday and he also made only 4 of 11 shots in the game against Tulsa Friday. *10* MEMPHIS

Rickenbach March Madness *8* Purdue Boilermakers +4.5 @ Michigan State @ 3 ET - Many will look at the Spartans here as they play this game with revenge for a 1 point loss to the Boilermakers back on February 9th. However, Purdue held Michigan State to just 38% from the field in that game. The Boilermakers deserved to win and they now enter this game simply "clicking on all cylinders" as their offensive efficiency has been spectacular. Purdue, for the 6th straight game yesterday, made at least 51.7% of their shots from the field. The Boilermakers have averaged 82 points per game during this hot streak. Michigan State only knocked down 42% of their shots in yesterday's win over Maryland. It marked the 5th time in their last 7 games that the Spartans were held to 48.7% or less from the field. In 4 of these 7 games the Spartans were held to 81 points or less. Of course Michigan State is a fantastic team and they have been performing insanely well at the betting window prior to yesterday's non-covering win. However, the point is that no offense is as hot as Purdue's has been of late and they have the confidence to take down the highly ranked Spartans in the Big Ten Championship Game after having already beaten them in the regular season. If the Boilermakers do fall short here, the points should be enough for the cover and that is added value for the red hot dog in tihs match-up. *8* PURDUE

Rickenbach March Madness *10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats -3.5 vs Texas A & M @ 1 ET - Huge revenge game for the Wildcats and I don't see them being denied. They never should have lost at Texas A & M on Feb 20th and they will get their payback here. Kentucky shot 50% in that game while holding the Aggies to just 39%. All but two of the Wildcats wins this season have come by a double digit margin and only one victory came by less than 6 points. With that said, great line value here as Kentucky now takes advantage of catching the Aggies on a neutral floor. The Cats are favored by nearly the same number they were when they faced Texas A & M at College Station so, with that said, there has been a little too much adjustment based on the Aggies annihilation of LSU yesterday. While that win was impressive, it was a fortunate draw for Texas A & M and they take a major step up in class in the championship game. While this is a "been there, done that" spot for a team like Kentucky, this will be the first title game for the Aggies since way back in 1994. The pressure gets to Texas A & M here and the ultra talented Wildcats flex their muscles in a big, revenging win. *10* KENTUCKY

Rickenbach March Madness #739 - *10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies -2 vs Temple @ 3 ET - The whole world will line up on Temple and you know what usually happens when that is the case...the books usually WIN! Everyone will be excited to play the Owls since the Huskies are off of an improbable win yesterday and had to go to 4 overtimes to get it. It was an insane win over Cincinnati and certainly left Connecticut tired and trying to come down off of an emotional high last night. In a regular season situation where a team has a game the very next day after a crazy win like the Huskies had yesterday, certainly UConn might be in a "play against" spot. But this is entirely different. This is a shot the Huskies have at getting to the AAC Tournament Championship game tomorrow. You think the odds makers didn't know what was going on when they set this line at -3.5 on UConn? Of course they knew...they already adjusted it downward from where the prior lines were in Huskies games against Temple this season and that includes even downward from a game played AT Temple last month. In this case the better team, the Huskies, has the Owls on a neutral floor at -2 after being favored by nearly a half dozen AT Temple last month and being favored by double digits in the earlier meeting this season. This is a ton of value being offered to a "never say die" Huskies team that is all the way down to a 2 point favorite as of early Saturday morning. Yesterday's battle with Cincy was similar to a battle between the Orange and the Huskies in conference tourney action 7 years ago. That one went to 6 overtimes and the Huskies lost that one but it is what Syracuse did the very next day that is applicable here. They went on to beat the Mountaineers outright as a dog of about a half dozen points. The Orange were supposed to be too tired physically as well as too emotionally spent to be able to get another W on the floor the very next day. But that's precisely what they did and that's precisely what I expect the Huskies to do here even though the majority of the betting world will be lining up heavy on the Owls. Contrarian play but these types of plays have served me well through the years. *10* CONNECTICUT 

Rickenbach March Madness #729 - *8* St Joseph's Hawks +2.5 vs Dayton @ 1:30 ET - St Joseph's saw George Washington get ridiculously hot from three point land yesterday and take a 14 point lead at the half. The Hawks then came all the way back in the 2nd half and ended up outscoring the Colonials by 20 after the break. A win like St Joe's notched yesterday is huge for confidence and this is a Hawks team that already beat Dayton last month by a 79-70 count. The Flyers took advantage of an awful shooting performance by Richmond in their blowout win over the Spiders yesterday. This is the same Dayton team however that had covered the spread just once in their prior ten games. The Flyers got a favorable draw with facing a Spiders team whose season was just as mediocre as their record would lead you to believe. Conversely, the Hawks had to do battle with a solid George Washington team that notched 23 regular season wins. The big battle yesterday does wonders for the Hawks in more ways then one and this is a St Joseph's team that has gone a phenomenal 13-3 in games played away from home. The Hawks showed their resilience yesterday and bring huge momentum into a game against a Flyers team that, prior to yesterday's win, had trouble creating separation from opponents. Dayton's last 5 wins had come by an average of 1.8 points per game. That said, even with the points only being in the 2.5 range here, the value is with those points as the Hawks are feeling the "team of destiny" feeling after the way they won yesterday's game. *8* ST JOSEPH'S

Rickenbach March Madness #726 - *8* Texas A & M Aggies -7 vs LSU @ 1 ET - The Aggies got by Florida yesterday despite a rough shooting performance. The fact that Texas A & M was still able to knock off the Gators despite the ugly shooting says quite a lot about just how strong the Aggies are this season. Now they will take advantage of an LSU team that benefited from turnovers in their upset win over Tennessee yesterday. Unlike the Volunteers, the Aggies won't be so generous with the ball in their game against the Tigers today. The Texas A & M backcourt matches up very well against LSU and the Aggies are seeking revenge for a tough loss at LSU last month. That was a tight win for the Tigers whereas Texas A & M blew out LSU by 14 in their other meeting this season (in January). The Aggies have won 7 straight games and have covered 6 of their last 7. LSU struggled down the stretch in the regular season as they went 2-4 in their last 6 games and only covered the spread in one of those games. That said, the Tigers got a favorable draw with the Vols yesterday as Tennessee was the #12 seed and playing a 3rd game in 3 days against a well-rested LSU team. There is no such edge for the Tigers today and they are facing an Aggies team whose last 11 wins (including yesterday over a tough Florida team) have come by an average margin of 12.5 points per game! The Tigers last 7 losses have come by an average margin of 12.5 points also! Look for a victory by a double digit margin for the Aggies here. *8* TEXAS A & M

Rickenbach March Madness #567 - *10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates +5.5 vs Xavier @ 9 ET - This is like a home game for Seton Hall as their home campus is not far from here. For Xavier, Cincinnati is certainly much farther away from New York City. That said, there is even more value than usual with this one which opened up around a 3.5 and is up to a 5.5 as the morning has gone on. Seton Hall's Isaiah Whitehead is probable by the way and the reports on him are good after yesterday's fall. The Pirates are simply rolling, they are well-coached, and they essentially have the home court edge in this match-up. The Musketeers, make no mistake about it, are certainly a fantastic team and it's part of the reason I had them as my top selection yesterday. However, Xavier simply caught Marquette at a good time. The Golden Eagles were off of a big win, they didn't bring great effort against the Musketeers, and Xavier was able to roll to the win. Today's match-up with Seton Hall will play out nothing like that. The Pirates are dangerous, they have star power, they are playing with edginess and emotion all over the floor, and they are very well coached. This game is going to go down to the wire and the Pirates just might steal the outright upset which is why I feel so confident with grabbing the points being offered here. Seton Hall is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pirates have gone 15-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. Xavier is playing this game with road loss revenge for the loss last month at Seton Hall. But the fact is that the Musketeers are just 2-4 ATS this season when playing with road loss revenge and the Pirates are essentially getting to host Xavier once again even though this is considered a neutral floor game. *10* SETON HALL

Rickenbach March Madness #553 - *10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +4 vs Old Dominion @ 4 ET - The Hilltoppers lost a pair of tight ones to Old Dominion in their regular season match-ups and that means it's payback time here. Western Kentucky is rolling as they have won 6 of their last 7 and are also 6-0 with one push ATS in those 7 games. Their offense has been on fire in their last 6 games and that makes them a very dangerous dog here. Confidence is surging after upsetting UAB yesterday and the Hilltoppers catch Old Dominion at the right time to spring the upset. The Monarchs have been hot too but they haven't been shooting the ball nearly as well as red hot Western Kentucky has. The Hilltoppers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in conference tourney games the past three seasons combined. Old Dominion is 5-10 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Monarchs are 3-6 ATS this season when they enter a game with one day or less of rest. Old Dominion thrives on solid defense but they will be wearing down as they play a 3rd game in 3 days. This will allow the Hilltoppers to take advantage as they are completely comfortable getting out quickly in transition and knocking down shots early in their possessions. Western Kentucky has the much more prolific offense and, right now, the Hilltoppers are 'feeling it' on the offensive end. That spells upset here but I'll grab the points being offered. *10* WESTERN KENTUCKY

Rickenbach March Madness #524 - *8* Purdue Boilermakers -11 vs Illinois @ 2:30 ET - Illinois has shot three-pointers at a ridiculous clip so far in the Big Ten tourney. That helped lead the way to a massive upset of Iowa yesterday after the Illini took advantage of a short-handed Golden Gophers team the prior day. I look for the hot shooting to come to an abrupt halt today. The Boilermakers held teams to just 31.7% from three point land in the regular season. By comparison, the Illini have allowed 38.2% on three-pointers so far this season. Purdue is rested and ready here while, conversely, Illinois will be playing their third game in three days. Although the line is a significant impost here, the Boilermakers have edges all over the floor plus have revenge on their minds here as Purdue lost by 14 at Illinois in January. The Boilermakers have shot the ball extremely well in their last four games and averaged 82 points per game during this stretch. Purdue will not be denied as they seek to avenge the January loss where the situation was not nearly as favorable as it is for the Boilermakers in this rematch. On the season, the Boilermakers defense has been much better than that of the Illini. Couple this with the rest edge and the fact that the Illinois shooting must "come back down to earth" here and you have the makings of a Purdue rout. Look for the Boilermakers to improve to 5-1 ATS this season in games against teams with a losing record and to also improve to 9-4 ATS in tournament games the last three seasons combined. *8* PURDUE 

Rickenbach March Madness #529 - *8* Richmond Spiders +4.5 vs Dayton @ Noon ET - With their win over Fordham yesterday the Spiders have now shot 48% or better from the field in 7 of their last 9 games. Richmond is one of the top scoring teams in the Atlantic Ten and though they've lost each of their last 3 match-ups with Dayton, the loss this season came by just a point and the loss last season came by only 3 points. There is value with the points here as, although Dayton has a great straight-up record, the Flyers have certainly struggled to put teams away. The Flyers wrapped up the season on an 0-8 ATS run including the 1 point win over Richmond as a 1.5 point favorite on the 1st of this month. Dayton wrapped up the season going 5-3 straight-up in these games and the average margin of victory in the 5 wins was just 1.8 points with not a single victory coming by more than three points. With the Spiders coming into this game seeking revenge and playing with confidence as they continue to shoot the ball very well, there is great line value with the underdog getting the points. *8* RICHMOND

Rickenbach March Madness #730 - *10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers -9 vs Marquette @ 7 ET - Marquette snuck by St John's last night and now have a short turnaround of less than 24 hours. That's bad news in and of itself but it is particularly bad news when you now have to face the team that is arguably the top team in the Big East conference. Xavier and Villanova are definitely the big two in this conference and the Musketeers are going to be a problematic match-up for the Golden Eagles. Marquette again looked very bad on the defensive end last night and they were fortunate to cover the early number on the game as they very nearly lost the game outright before pulling away in the final minute. The Golden Eagles have now allowed at least 52% from the field in 4 straight games. Their offense has bailed them out in wins over St John's and Georgetown but against tougher teams like Butler and Villanova, this ugly defense led to losses by a combined margin of 31 points. I look for another big loss tonight for the Golden Eagles. Marquette will struggled against an Xavier team that is quite capable defensively when focused and, now that the tourney is here, look for a very focused effort from the Musketeers in this one. Prior to a pair of subpar late-season efforts on defense to close out the regular season portion of their schedule, Xavier held their five prior opponents to 39% combined from the field. Xavier has an explosive offense that has connected on 50% or better of its shots from the field in five of its last eight games. The Musketeers are 3-0 ATS in neutral court games this season and also 15-8 ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Marquette is 2-6 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival this season. Also, the Golden Eagles are 8-17 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. *10* XAVIER

Rickenbach March Madness #797 - *8* South Florida Bulls +3.5 vs East Carolina @ 3:30 ET - The line may look a little "funny" here considering that South Florida was an ugly 7-24 this season and a 12-19 East Carolina team is such a short favorite in a neutral floor game. However, there is good reason for the low number in this one. The Pirates have been impacted by illness with four players listed on the injury report including three guards. Although I do expect all will play, this is likely to impact the stamina and energy (and therefore the depth and effectiveness) of the East Carolina backcourt. This opens the door for a South Florida upset here as the Bulls already held the edge in the paint in this match-up. Now they also are likely to hold an edge in the backcourt too. These teams met a week ago and the Pirates embarrassed the Bulls on their home floor. However, the Bulls did knock off the Pirates in East Carolina by a double digit margin earlier this season as well. In their last 18 games the Pirates have won only 4 and, other than the 13 point win over the Bulls, the other 3 victories came by an average margin of just 3 points per game! The fact we are getting some points with USF here coupled with the illness issues impacting the Pirates is making for some nice line value with the underdog Bulls plus the points in a situation where they have a great shot at the outright win. The Bulls went 6-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Pirates went 2-6 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 60 points or less. Also, East Carolina is on a long-term ugly run of 3-13 ATS in first round tournament games. *8* SOUTH FLORIDA

Rickenbach March Madness #712 - *8* Iowa Hawkeyes -10.5 vs Illinois @ 2:30 ET - Illinois has gotten the cash just once in their last 6 meetings with Iowa. This is a tough spot for the Illini here as it is a back to back and yesterday's win over Minnesota truly ended up being almost "too easy". Sometimes games like that are the worst thing for a team because a team is not even tested and that is what ended up happening with the Illini in their easy blowout win over the Golden Gophers yesterday. Now Illinois takes a major step up in class to face an Iowa team that has beaten them 6 straight times. This includes a 12 point victory for the Hawkeyes last month and that game was at Illinois. Iowa now gets their chance to drop a blowout win on the Illini on a neutral floor. Certainly the Hawkeyes had a rough late season patch that put a damper on their season. But Iowa closed out the regular season with a big win over a tough Michigan team and I believe these Hawkeyes will prove to be an ultra dangerous team that no one wants to have to face in this Big Ten tournament. Iowa is so potent offensively with 78.5 points per game on the season. The Hawkeyes had a number of tight losses during their rough late season stretch but when Iowa wins (as they absolutely should here) they do win big and that makes this spread quite manageable. The Hawkeyes notched 10 of their 12 Big Ten wins by double digit margins and Illinois was a paltry 5-13 in Big Ten regular season action. The lllini simply won't be able to keep up here after an uncharacteristically strong shooting performance yesterday. They dominated a short-handed Minnesota team but face a much tougher test today. Illinois is 8-19 ATS the past three seasons in games against teams averaging 77+ points per game on the season. The high-scoring Hawkeyes win this one going away. *8* IOWA

Rickenbach March Madness #749 - *8* Arkansas Razorbacks +3 vs Florida @ 1 ET - The Razorbacks lost at Florida each of the last two seasons but the Jan 2015 defeat came by just a single point and the loss last month came by just four points. Now the Razorbacks get the Gators on a neutral court and I look for Arkansas to "get over the hump" against Florida in this one. Even though they faced some of the lower tier teams to close out the season, the Razorbacks winning 4 of 5 to close out the regular season certainly breeds some confidence heading into the SEC Tourney. They are catching Florida at the right time to spring the upset as the Gators still seem down-trodden after having such a disappointing finish to what was once a very promising season. Florida was 15-7 in early February before proceeding to lose 6 of their next 8 games before finally notching a win against Missouri in their regular season finale. Of course everyone beats the Tigers and the fact that the Gators closed the season with a win while the Razorbacks closed the season with a loss - albeit against a much tougher foe in South Carolina - actually helps our cause here. Florida is 2-6 straight-up this season when they are off of a win against a conference rival. The Gators are also 6-10 ATS the past three seasons in neutral court games. The Razorbacks are 8-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Also, Arkansas is 13-7 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. When playing with revenge for a road loss, the Razorbacks went 3-1 ATS this season. *8* ARKANSAS

Rickenbach March Madness #733 - *8* Richmond Spiders -5 vs Fordham @ Noon ET - Richmond has won five straight games in this series the past three seasons combined. The Spiders simply "have the Rams number" and, with that said, this line is very manageable as I look for Richmond to win this one by double digits just like their 93-82 victory at Fordham in January. This, of course, is a neutral court game and the Spiders have gone 11-4 straight-up in neutral court games where they are favored between 3.5 and 6 points. That said, 13 of Richmond's 15 wins this season came by at least 8 points. With that being the case, odds are that a Spiders SU win here (which is likely) is also likely to come by a margin that covers the small number. Fordham finished the season strong but they did allow 7 of their last 11 opponents to hit 50% or better from the field. The Spiders did hold 8 of their last 13 opponents to 45% or less from the field. Couple the defensive edge with the fact that the Spiders averaged 77.5 points per game this season while the Rams averaged 71.9 points and you have the makings of a double digit victory for the favorite in this one as their series dominance of Fordham continues. *8* RICHMOND

Rickenbach March Madness #563 - *10* St John's Red Storm +6.5 vs Marquette @ 9:30 ET - This "neutral site" game is played on the home floor of St John's so it truly is an edge for the Red Storm. Of course that is factored into the line but I still think this spread range is too high for Marquette given the situational edges. The Golden Eagles went an ugly 3-10 ATS as a favorite this season. Also, Marquette allowed 87 points or more in each of their final three games of the regular season. The last three seasons combined, the Golden Eagles are an unsightly 5-15 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. In home games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5, the Red Storm have failed to cover the spread just twice in seven such games this season! In the most recent match-up between these teams, the Golden Eagles shot 52% from the field while the Red Storm shot just 35% from the field and yet St John's lost the game by only five points! That says a lot right there. In other words, with a much more equal shooting performance, an upset by the Red Storm would not be a surprise here. As it is, we are certainly getting great line value here with the sizable points being offered to St John's. The Red Storm shot at least 44% from the field in each of their last 3 home games this season and they scored at least 75 points in two of those games. Overall, the Red Storm scored at least 75 points in 3 of their last 5 games this season. Marquette's defense has been an issue this season and this has been particularly true in road games the past few weeks. This one has upset written all over it but I'll grab the sizable points. *10* ST JOHN'S

Rickenbach March Madness #553 - *8* Minnesota Golden Gophers +10 vs Illinois @ 4:30 ET - With Joey King now out with a foot injury, no one will want Minnesota here. However, the Golden Gophers forward had more fouls and turnovers combined (8) than points (6) in his final game of the season. King shot 1 of 9 in the 13 point loss to the Badgers. Had he put forth at least a half decent game the Golden Gophers likely would have covered and it would have been their 4th cover in 5 games. Even with the players suspended and with King now out, I think we are getting some insane line value here with Minnesota. The line is now up into the double digit range and a lot of that has to do with a dismal effort against Rutgers in the Golden Gophers final game of the regular season. However, even with a lot of players out, I have seen what Minnesota can do when they are "on their game" and "focused" and both of those key factors will be in play now that it's tourney time. Yes it would be a huge upset for Minny but they have no doubt they can get the job done. In the recent Illini win over the Gophers, Illinois shot a ridiculous 57% from the field. How crazy was that? Consider this...Illinois, in their final 11 games of the season, was held to 40.3% or less from the field in 8 of the other 10 games. Minnesota certainly does have some issues but now that it's tourney time, they have nothing to lose and will play a very loose game, and they face an Illinois team that won only 5 of its last 18 games...certainly the Golden Gophers fit the bill as a dangerous dog in this one! *8* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach March Madness #519 - *8* Syracuse Orange +2.5 vs Pittsburgh @ Noon ET - Talk about a payback spot. The Panthers have defeated the Orange 4 straight times. That includes a pair of defeats by double digit margins this season. However, it's very tough to defeat a solid, well-coached team like Syracuse 3 straight times in a span of about 10 weeks and that is what Pittsburgh is trying to do here. The Panthers faded at the end of the season and that is key factor with this play as Pitt lost 6 of its last 9 games and has lost some of their "mojo" to say the least. The concerning thing about that for the Panthers is that they were favored or a dog of 2 points or less in all but 2 of those 9 games. That means the other 7 were truly winnable games and yet Pittsburgh struggled mightily. The Orange also stumbled down the stretch but they faced a tougher late season schedule than did Pitt. That is why Syracuse was a dog in 3 of their last 5 games and the average line in those games was +8. What I like about the Orange is the fact that in their last 9 games where they were either favored or they were a dog of 3 points or less, Syracuse went 8-1 straight-up. The lone loss was to the Panthers. It is payback time indeed. The Orange have gone 8-3 SU in tournament games the past 3 seasons combined. Also, Syracuse is 18-9 ATS in neutral court games where their line ranges from pick'em to a +3. The Panthers are 24-38 ATS as a favorite the past 3 seasons combined. *8* SYRACUSE

Rickenbach March Madness *10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners +3.5 vs Florida Atlantic @ 5 ET - It has been a frustrating season for UTSA but coach Brooks Thompson has been known for having the Roadrunners well prepared for Tournament games and he will have them ready here. Texas-San Antonio has a great shot at getting the upset of the Owls here in this CUSA opener and that's why I see great value with the points. Florida Atlantic is off of an ATS victory in their regular season finale and it looks good on paper but the fact is UAB cared little about that game. Prior to that cover, the Owls had failed to cover 6 of their last 7 games. Florida Atlantic was held under 36% from the field in 4 of those 6 non-covers. The Owls did beat UT-San Antonio in both match-ups this season but it is very tough to beat the same team three times in a season. Florida Atlantic had some big shooting performances in each game and that was the key difference maker. That is unlikely to be repeated here based on how poorly the Owls were shooting the ball late in the season and, in what some have rumored could be coach Thompson's last game with UTSA (should they lose), I fully expect an intense effort from the 'Runners defense in this one. Texas-San Antonio covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games to close out the regular season and also had a respectable 5-3 ATS mark in their final 8 road games of the season. UTSA has a long-term mark of 15-9 ATS in tournament games. Florida Atlantic has gone 4-11 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite and, in 10 of those 11 losses they were defeated outright! The Runners have a great shot at the upset here and are fully motivated to get it. *10* UT-SAN ANTONIO

Rickenbach March Madness *8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons +5 vs NC State @ Noon ET - The Demon Deacons certainly did not have an impressive overall season but I liked what I saw from them late in the season. That said, this is the "anything can happen" tourney time and you can bet that Wake Forest will be ready to go today. The Demon Deacons know they have a great shot against the Wolfpack and I look for Wake Forest to be in this one all the way. The Demon Deacons held 4 of their last 5 opponents under 43.7% from the field. On the other end of the floor Wake Forest was also showing marked improvement as they shot 44.2% or better from the field in 9 of their last 11 games. The Demon Deacons covered 7 of their last 13 games this season while NC State enters the ACC Tournament having failed to cover 6 straight games! The Wolfpack defense has struggled consistently over their last 9 games while the offense has been held to 41.4% or less from the field in 4 of their last 6 games. NC State will be in an absolute war just to win this game...let alone cover the spread which is now all the way up to a 5 as of early gameday morning. The Wolfpack have a long-term history of 1-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Demon Deacons are 4-2 ATS the past three seasons when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest. *8* WAKE FOREST

Rickenbach March Madness *10* Western Michigan +5.5 @ Northern Illinois @ 8 ET - The fact that Marin Maric is dealing with an ankle injury is significant. He's the leading scorer for the Huskies and even head coach Mark Montgomery was saying he was only 60% heading into this game in terms of being able to put pressure on his ankle. Another key here is that the teams split their season series which was quite heated and included numerous ejections. Western Michigan lost the most recent game and they seek revenge tonight. Even though the game is in DeKalb, IL the Broncos only lost the most recent game here by 9 points despite shooting a paltry 38% from the field while the Huskies shot 53% from the field. In other words, even with a huge off night in terms of shooting for Western Michigan they still were "right there" in the game even though the Huskies had a rare great shooting night. That says a lot about how evenly matched these teams are and with Maric now hurting, the value is clearly with the Broncos and grabbing the available points in this MAC Tourney opener. Western Michigan is 4-1 ATS this season and 13-5 ATS the past three seasons when playing with road loss revenge. Also, the emotional intensity (players ejected, etc) adds even more fuel to the Broncos fire as they seek to avenge the loss that occurred in their most recent match-up with the Huskies. Northern Illinois had a rare 20-win season but the Huskies lost 8 of their last 11 games prior to defeating Ball State in their regular season finale. A 3-8 run that stretched into early March coupled with an injury to the leading scorer makes the Huskies a "false favorite" here. Great value with the hungry underdog. *10* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Rickenbach March Madness *8* Hartford Hawks +18.5 @ Stony Brook @ 7 ET - I faded Stony Brook in the first round of this tourney and won easily with UMBC as the Retrievers actually were in line for a potential outright upset very late into the game before the Seawolves finally pulled away and notched the 10 point victory as a 23.5 point favorite. Here Stony Brook is again an over-inflated favorite in my opinion. The line is in the 19 point range and the Seawolves last 8 games has featured only one win by more than 19 points. Included in this stretch was a 13 points win over the Hawks. Hartford may provide an even bigger challenge tonight than they did in that game. The Hawks have won 3 of their last 5 games and that included a huge upset of Albany in the tourney opener. That big upset gives Hartford plenty of confidence as they prepare to face the Seawolves and the fact that there were four off days in between games has given the Hawks plenty of time to come down off of the emotional high of knocking off Albany. Rest assured the Hawks are fully prepared to now face a Seawolves team that knocked them out of this tournament two years ago. That loss came by just 5 points and only 1 of the last 5 meetings between these teams was decided by more than 15 points. Also, Hartford knocked off UMBC in both match-ups this season. That is the same Retrievers team that, although they had an ugly overall record just like the Hawks too, truly gave the Seawolves all they could handle Wednesday. Look for this Monday game to be just as close. Stony Brook doesn't play many lined games but they continue to be over-valued when they do and I look for the Seawolves to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season. As for the Hawks, they are 5-0 ATS the past three seasons in games against teams with a winning record. That makes this one a combined 10-0 ATS mark in favor of the road dog. *8* HARTFORD

Rickenbach March Madness #878 - *10* Top Play Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -8 vs Stetson @ 7 ET - Stetson have been "the story" so far in this tourney but let's not forget how it played out. In other words, I am predicting it comes to an end today because it has been a bit of a fluke. Any team can have one big game and get an upset win. That's exactly what happened when the Hatters upset New Jersey Tech in their opening game of this tourney. NJ Tech had been struggling to finish the season and they simply had an awful shooting performance lead to an upset win at the hands of Stetson. However, the next match-up for the Hatters is where they caught a break. Stetson faced a 12-20 Lipscomb team because they had gotten the upset in overtime against Jacksonville. The result of all this is that the Hatters now take a major step up in competition and face a much superior foe that is simply red hot right now. Florida Gulf Coast is off of back to back wins in this tournament and they have each come by double digit margins. This included a 33 point blowout win over a 22-10 North Florida team. The Eagles are playing their best basketball of the season, they have won 6 of their past 8 games and are loaded with confidence right now plus have home court edge here. Adding even more strength to this play is that the Eagles did get upset at Stetson in their regular season finale. That means a little payback is on order here and Florida Gulf Coast will take advantage of having home court for the rematch. The last time they hosted Stetson, the Eagles blasted them by 29 points. Another rout is likely here as Stetson's luck runs out. Keep in mind this game means much more to FGC than it does to Stetson. The Hatters, due to poor academic performance, can't go to the Big Dance even if they win this game. The Eagles will represent the Atlantic Sun Conference if they get the win Sunday but, if they lose it will go to the regular season conference champion which was North Florida. That is the same Ospreys team that Florida Gulf Coast just crushed by 33 points. The Eagles are simply too powerful and are the much better defense in this match-up. Stetson has allowed 83.1 points per game on the season which ranks as the worst in the conference. The Eagles allowed just 70 points per game which ranks as the #1 spot in the conference. Couple that with the home court edge and motivational edge and talent edge and this should be an absolute mauling Sunday. *10* FLORIDA GULF COAST

Rickenbach NCAAB #579 - *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins +5.5 @ Indiana @ 4:30 ET - Maryland certainly holds the motivational edge here based on the current situation in the Big Ten standings. Also, the Terrapins are back on track after a rare, late-season lull that saw them lose back to back games when they were upset at home by Wisconsin and then suffered the letdown effect in their next game, a shocking loss at Minnesota. The Terps have since gotten back on track as they've won 2 of their last 3 games and have their offense rolling in high gear again. They will certainly pose a huge challenge to a Hoosiers team that could get caught still celebrating their big win at Iowa Tuesday. That was the 4th straight win for Indiana and it was a key win for the Hoosiers as it locked up the Big Ten regular season title. The Hoosiers are the only team in the Big Ten that, for the full season, does not have a home loss. The Terrapins are still ticked off about the late season lull that cost them in the Big Ten standings and this game is very important to Maryland as it relates to positioning for the conference tournament. With that said, the Terps would love nothing more than to hand the Hoosiers their first home loss of the season while also improving their seeding in the Big Ten standings. Indiana is 5-11 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. This is expected to be a rather high-scoring game and the Terrapins are 19-10 ATS the past three seasons (and 9-1 SU this season) in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range. Comparing these teams, Maryland is the better team defensively and the Terps have won each of the last two meetings. However, the Terrapins did lose ugly in a poor effort against the Hoosiers in their most recent visit to Indiana. Rest assured they've been constantly reminded of that heading into this meetings and with all the added motivation for the Terps here, the Hoosiers will be in an all-out war just to try and preserve their unblemished home record. Even if Indiana does that, I expect the victory to be by a very small margin. We have huge line value here with the hungry road dog in this one. *10* MARYLAND

Rickenbach March Madness #698 - *8* Siena Saints -8 vs Manhattan @ 7 ET - Manhattan certainly has good history at this time of year in recent seasons. However, this season's Jaspers team is not nearly on par with those teams. That said, after a "fluke" performance in their MAAC opener I look for Manhattan to quickly come back down to earth as they get annihilated by a far superior Siena team. The Jaspers shot a ridiculous 63.5% overall from the field and 66.7% from three point land in their win over Marist Thursday. Now Manhattan goes from facing a Marist team that only managed 3 wins in conference action to facing a Siena team that won 20 games this season. The Saints also play this game with revenge. Siena lost at Manhattan in early January by 5 points but this came after blasting the Jaspers by 35 points in early December. As you can tell by those results, when Manhattan is "on" they were able to win by 5 while when the Saints were "on" they were able to win by 35 points! Siena is well rested here, catching the Jaspers with some false confidence after everything was just dropping into the bucket for them Thursday, and I look for the Saints superior defense to be a huge difference maker in Saturday's match-up. Siena allowed just 41% shooting from the field this season while Manhattan has allowed 47%. Also, the Saints are the better shooting time by about 4 percentage points as well. Siena is a stellar 8-0 ATS in March games the past two seasons. Also, this season the Saints are on a 6-2 ATS run in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. The Jaspers are 4-7 ATS this season when facing a team with a winning record. Last but certainly not least is that Siena gets the edge of playing this game at home in Albany, NY. A crowd of about 8,000 is expected for this game and the venue and the atmosphere for this MAAC Tourney game absolutely favors the Saints. *8* SIENA

Rickenbach NCAAB #578 *10* Top Play Virginia Tech +6.5 vs Miami (FL) @ 4 ET - The world has jumped on Miami here as I expected. The line opened up at a 5 and has been driven up to a 6.5 as of Saturday morning. The fact is that the Hokies are a very dangerous home dog in a spot like this and I believe the Hurricanes are over-valued here on the road. Miami has gone just 3-6 ATS in road games this season while Virginia Tech has gone 9-3 ATS in home games this season. Also, the Hokies are 13-4 ATS in ACC games this season. Virginia Tech comes into this game rolling with four straight wins including three of those being outright wins as an underdog with victories over solid Pitt and Florida State teams included! The Hokies catch Miami off of a huge road win at Notre Dame and that is the type of emotional high (a dominating road win over a big name school) that can leave a team a little flat in it's next game. Even though the Hurricanes have been hot let's not forget that they've had a home-heavy schedule of late. Prior to the road win at Notre Dame the Canes had played 7 of their last 11 at home. That said, their road performances in the ACC prior to the win over the Irish included a 3-4 performance with one of the wins coming by just 2 points, one by only 7 points, and the only blowout win being over a conference worst Boston College team. The road losses for Miami came by an average margin of 15 points per defeat. As you can see, the Hurricanes don't travel particularly well and I feel they are ripe for an upset here after the huge win at Notre Dame. That makes the value of the points with the Hokies absolutely the way to go here. As a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points this season, the Hurricanes have gone 0-3 ATS. *10* VIRGINIA TECH

Rickenbach NCAAB #573 - *8* Vanderbilt Commodores +4.5 @ Texas A & M @ Noon ET - Texas A & M is 16-1 in home games this season while Vanderbilt has gone 3-8 away from home. Given those straight-up records, the fact that the Aggies opened up as only a 4 point favorite in this one certainly looked "off", didn't it? The odds makers don't make many mistakes and while many will flock to the small home favorite here I believe the value is with a road dog that is playing their best basketball of the season. The Commodores have won 4 straight and 11 of their last 15 games. Vanderbilt has also covered 4 straight games. Vanderbilt beat the Aggies back in early February and that has started a stretch of 9 straight games where the Commodores have scored at least 74 points in every game. Needless to say the Vandy confidence is sky high right now and when you're scoring the ball as well as the Commodores are right now, that makes you a truly dangerous dog. The Aggies have also begun to heat up but when you look at their 9 games beginning with the road loss at Vandy, Texas A & M has been held to 71 points or less in more than half of those games. Over their last 6 games particularly the Aggies have struggled from the three point line. I see Texas A & M struggling with a Vandy offense that is ultra dangerous right now and this means this one likely goes down to the wire with a Commodores outright upset being no surprise at all in my mind. Vanderbilt is 7-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons combined. Texas A & M is 1-4 ATS this season in games with a posted total between 130 and 139.5 points. *8* VANDERBILT 

Rickenbach March Madness #873 - *10* Top Play Delaware Blue Hens +9 vs College of Charleston @ 8:30 ET - This is certainly the classic case of an "ugly dog" play and I see big value here with the Blue Hens. Delaware has matched up well with the College of Charleston in both regular season meetings. The Blue Hens beat the Cougars two weeks ago in Delaware and, in their prior meeting this season as the College of Charleston, it was a one point defeat for the Blue Hens. Neither game topped 121 points and it's tough for the favorite to get a lot of separation in uglier low-scoring games which is absolutely what I am predicting here. The Cougars haven't been the same since they lost Canyon Barry to a season-ending shoulder injury in January. College of Charleston started the season with a 9-3 record. Since then, without Barry, the Cougars have gone 7-10. Four of the Cougars last six wins have come by a margin of 7 points or less and, looking at their last 15 games overall, only 2 of the 15 were games that resulted in victories by more than a 7 point margin. You can see the value here with a big dog that has played the Cougars tough in each of their two regular season meetings. Also, the Blue Hens were in the Big Dance two seasons ago. Of course this team is nowhere close to the caliber of that team but the confidence level is higher than you might think for Delaware as they look to make a run in the tourney. It's always a fresh hope when a team has had a tough regular season and I look for Friday's game to be a close one. The Blue Hens are 3-0 ATS this season (and 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons combined) in games with a posted total in the 120 to 129.5 range. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS this season (and 12-26 ATS the last 3 seasons combined) as a favorite. *10* DELAWARE 

Rickenbach March Madness Thursday #575 - *8* Marist Red Foxes +3 vs Manhattan @ 10 ET - This line looked "interesting" to say the least and, as I have mentioned many times in the past, when a line looks a little "off" it is certainly worth investigating. If you then find what you expected, you jump on it. That is the case here. How in the world is a Marist team that only went 4-16 in conference action such a small dog against a Manhattan team that went 9-11 in conference action? The fact is this is a classic case of hot versus not and it's also a big revenge game. The Red Foxes were knocked out of the conference tourney last March by the Jaspers so they certainly will be seeking revenge here. Marist did get some revenge by winning at Manhattan earlier this season but then the Jaspers returned the favor by beating the Red Foxes on their home floor. Now, in a neutral site game, I see the edge with the revenge-minded team here. Marist is much better and has much more talent than their record would lead you to believe. The Red Foxes won their last two games of the regular season which certainly has built some momentum for the conference tourney. As for Manhattan, the Jaspers lost 3 straight games to end the season. Overall the Jaspers have lost 5 of their last 6 games and have failed to cover 2 of their past 3 games. The Red Foxes not only won their last two games of the season, they also have covered 4 of their last 5. Taking a look at each team over their last 6 games, Marist has been playing the better defense and, at this time of year, it's a renewed home that permeates through the locker room of a team like the Red Foxes that under performed during the regular season but has the talent level to make a run in a tournament setting. Look for that run to begin today. Marist is 5-1 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range. Manhattan is 0-3 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Keep in mind the Jaspers did give up allow 45% shooting from the field in that one and it was the 6th straight game they allowed 44% or better from the field while the Red Foxes have held 3 of their last 6 opponents to 41% or less from the field. *8* MARIST

Rickenbach March Madness Thursday Game #589 - *8* Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +7.5 @ North Florida @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles lost both match-ups with the Ospreys last season but they can erase the frustration of those defeats in a big way by getting the upset win in the Atlantic Sun Tournament Thursday. The Eagles certainly have the confidence level to get it done. They did split their match-ups with North Florida this season but Florida Gulf Coast's loss came by just 6 points and was a tight game late while the Eagles victory was decided by a dominant 16 point margin. Even though FGC won only 2 of their 7 road games in conference action this season, 4 of the 5 defeats came by a single margin and 3 of those 4 were by 7 points or less. The Eagles victory over Kennesaw State Tuesday marked the 5th time in their last 7 games that FGC held their opponent under 42.7% from the field. As for North Florida, as impressive as their overall offensive production is, the Ospreys defense has allowed over 46.1% from the field in 9 of their last 10 games! North Florida wrapped up the regular season with 4 losses in their last 7 games. By the way the 3 wins included a pair of victories by 3 points or less. I look for the Ospreys to struggle to create any kind of separation with FGC Thursday and I would not be surprised to see the Eagles get the upset. Neither one of these teams is involved in lined games very often but the long-term numbers do show North Florida at just 3-3 ATS in home games while the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in road games. Grab the points here! *8* FLORIDA GULF COAST

Rickenbach March Madness Thursday Game #571 - *8* Quinnipiac Bobcats +5 vs Rider @ 5 ET - The Bobcats seek revenge for a 23 point defeat at Rider in late January. Quinnipiac had defeated the Broncs earlier in the month when they hosted Rider. So what happened in the rematch? The Bobcats shot a ridiculous 27.7% from the field. Only once the entire season did Quinnipiac shoot worse than that and the ugly outing came against Monmouth who is a fantastic small school team. That said, don't look for a repeat here. The Bobcats are likely to shoot much better tonight in this neutral floor match-up. Also, Quinnipiac has a huge edge on the boards where they've dominated all season long. As for defense, these teams rank about equal except that the Bobcats do a better job against the three ball. That said, they have a rebounding edge here and a perimeter edge as Quinnipiac is also the better three point shooting team as well. It's the overall shooting percentage of the Bobcats that is ugly for the season but they did shoot 44% or better from the field in 2 of their last 3 games. Rider has the better record on the season but they did lose 5 of their last 7 games and one of those two wins came by just three points. The Bobcats certainly fit the image of an "ugly dog" based on their performance this season but in an "anything can happen" neutral court tourney I will gladly challenge a week Broncs team to cover the spread. Rider is 1-9 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range. Also, the Broncs are 2-9 ATS the past 3 seasons in neutral court games. The beating the Bobcats took at Rider a little over 5 weeks ago was their worst loss of the season. Look for the Cats to improve to 3-1 SU and ATS the past 3 seasons when they are playing with revenge from a blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points here. *8* QUINNIPIAC

Rickenbach NCAAB #750 - *8* Minnesota Golden Gophers +10 vs Wisconsin @ 9 ET - Of course I am aware of the suspensions that the Golden Gophers recently handed out. Even with those, Minnesota went on the road and actually had a nice lead at the half at Illinois on Sunday before the Golden Gophers were done in by a torrid shooting performance in the 2nd half by the Illini. That end result is helping to give us some line value here because now, at home and having had more time to adjust for the suspensions, the Golden Gophers will be a dangerous dog. Minnesota took care of business against a bad team by crushing Rutgers in the Golden Gophers most recent home game. In their game prior to that Minnesota upset the powerful Terrapins in a huge shocker where I rode the Golden Gophers to victory. Now certainly the team has been impacted by the suspensions but this line is also adjusted to reflect that and I am convinced it is offering exceptional line value to the home dog. The Golden Gophers are playing their final home game and the other players getting extra minutes as a result of the suspensions are absolutely going to make the most of it in this spot. The Badgers are off of a big home win versus Michigan and have a huge season finale on deck with a massive game at Purdue on Saturday. That makes this a tough "sandwich spot" for the Badgers and they could very easily be "flat" for this game. Look for the Golden Gophers to improve to 3-0 ATS this season as a home dog of 9.5 to 12 points. *8* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NCAAB #758 - *10* Top Play UCLA Bruins +2.5 vs Oregon @ 9 ET - The Ducks are ranked in the top ten teams in the country, have gone 12-4 in the Pac 12 while the Bruins have gone just 6-10 and yet the Ducks opened up as a two point favorite here. Makes you scratch your head a little, doesn't it? Here is the key to this low line and why you want to be on the dog here while everyone else likely piles in on the favorite. The Ducks are only 3-4 SU in Pac 12 road games. Overall, Oregon has failed to cover 4 of their past 5 games and they have allowed 72 points or more in 9 of their last 12 games. UCLA is off of an ugly loss at Stanford where their defense failed them but the Bruins will respond here and had been playing quite well on that side of the floor before the Cardinal took it to them. Even though UCLA is only 4-3 SU in Pac 12 games this season two of those losses came by just 2 points. The Bruins are very close to being 6-1 SU in Pac 12 home games and certainly there is value here with getting the 2.5 points as UCLA wants to play the role of spoiler here plus get revenge for a 14 point loss at Oregon earlier this season. The Bruins have gone 14-5 SU the last 3 seasons when they are revenging a road loss. Also, when off of a loss in Pac 12 action past three seasons, UCLA has gone 16-7 ATS. The Bruins will bring their A game tonight and they have excelled in high-scoring games on their home court. Look for UCLA to improve to 4-0 ATS and SU in home games with a posted total in the range of 155 to 159.5 points. The Ducks are 2-6 ATS the past three seasons combined in a line range of pick'em to -3. *10* UCLA 

Rickenbach NCAAB #725 - *8* Texas Tech Red Raiders +9.5 @ West Virginia @ 7 ET - Texas Tech was projected to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12 coming into this season but they have been anything but and yet they still aren't getting the respect they deserve. The Red Raiders have been on a late season push and, in their four point loss to West Virginia in late February, Texas Tech actually let the game by 4 points before the Mountaineers managed to score the final 8 points of the game to notch the victory. I fully expect another tight game tonight as the Red Raiders are off of a rare, poor shooting performance at Kansas. Texas Tech only shot 31.6% from the field in that game and yet they still only lost by 9 points. It was the 5th cover for the Red Raiders in their last 6 games and, overall, Texas Tech had five straight wins before suffering the SU loss to the Jayhawks. The Red Raiders have fought hard for Tubby Smith all season long and that's why on the entire season they have just two losses by more than 10 points. Texas Tech is going to again battle hard tonight as they improve to 3-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Look for West Virginia to drop to 1-4 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. *8* TEXAS TECH

Rickenbach NCAAB #739 - *8* Mississippi State Bulldogs +4 @ Ole Miss @ 7 ET - While it is true that Ole Miss has revenge here for a loss at Mississippi State in late January it is also true that the Bulldogs and Rebels are huge in-state rivals and Mississippi State certainly hasn't forgotten about the fact that they had lost three straight meetings prior to that win. For the Bulldogs that included an SEC Tourney loss in 2014. So, as they gear up for the 2016 tournament, look for the underdog Bulldogs to "leave it all on the floor" Wednesday against their hated rival. As I have said many times before, when something looks "easy" there is usually a "catch" and that is the case here. Many will jump on the home team with the better record that is playing with in-season revenge. However, the fact is that the Rebels have only split their last 6 games and, from an ATS perspective they have failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Ole Miss has not been shooting the ball well at all and they now host a Bulldogs team that has shot the ball very well over the past four games. Mississippi State covered all four games and they have won 3 of their last 4 SU. The Bulldogs are 10-5 ATS as an underdog this season and they have covered 3 of 4 this season when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, Ole Miss has gone 3-7 ATS the past three seasons combined and 5 of those 7 losses were outright defeats. *8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Rickenbach March Madness #781 - UMBC Retrievers +22 @ Stony Brook @ 7 ET - The loss of Bryan Sekunda to a knee injury impacts the depth of the Seawolves. Of course bench production is a key when it comes to covering a big spread like this. When these teams last met at Stony Brook the Seawolves knocked off the Retrievers by only 12 points. The prior two games in the series were decided by 10 points and 12 points as well. The point is that the only time in the last 4 match-ups between these teams that it was a blowout was when they met at UMBC and the Retrievers lost by 23 points. However, that was simply "one of those games" because the leading scorer for the Retrievers had a rare off shooting night and that certainly impacted the outcome greatly. In the prior match-up, Jairus Lyles had 24 points at Stony Brook and the Retrievers lost the game by only 12 points. Lyles is heating up again as he has averaged 23.7 points in his last three games and UMBC wrapped up the season with an OT win over Binghamton and a tight loss at New Hampshire where the determined Retrievers just wouldn't go away. I look for this game to be another close one tonight as Stony Brook lost two of their last three games to wrap up the season. The Seawolves also have just one win by more than 18 points in their last six games and that was the 23 point margin at UMBC when Lyles shot a ridiculous 3 of 17. That won't be repeated as Lyles is hot again and redeems himself here. The Retrievers have covered both of their lined games this season while the Seawolves have failed to cover all three of theirs and they are again overvalued here. *8* UMBC

Rickenbach March Madness #575 - *8* USC Upstate +14.5 @ North Florida @ 7:30 ET - It's tourney time in the Atlantic Sun Conference and last March the Ospreys knocked the Spartans out of the tourney with a 6 point win. It's payback time for USC Upstate and even though they may not pull off the monumental upset as a huge dog in this game, I do expect the Spartans to be ultra competitive in this one. Yes, the game is being played at North Florida but these teams just met here a week ago and the Ospreys only won that game by 3 points. In fact, North Florida is a dismal 3-4 SU in their last 7 games and only one of the wins came by more than 3 points. The Ospreys have been struggling on the defensive end and have allowed 82.7 points per game in their last 10 games. That type of subpar defense makes it very tough to blowout a team and that is especially true in a tournament situation where the Spartans will come in loose knowing they have nothing to lose and everything to gain with a huge upset here. USC Upstate is only 7-10 SU in their last 17 games but only 2 of those 10 losses have come by more than 13 points and, in fact, the Spartans had 6 losses by a single digit margin during this stretch. USC Upstate got a major confidence boost for the tourney as, last week, they knocked off a New Jersey Tech team that ranks among the top teams in the conference. That makes this match-up with North Florida seem all the more winnable and, in fact, the Spartans had taken 5 straight meetings in this series before the tourney loss last spring and then the two losses this season. Again, two of those three losses came by 6 points or less and the Ospreys are going to have trouble building big separation in this game. *8* USC UPSTATE

Rickenbach NCAAB #531 - *10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats -3 @ Florida @ 7 ET - The Wildcats respond well when off of a SU loss. When off of a loss in SEC action the Wildcats are a PERFECT 4-0 SU and ATS this season. Looking further back, the past three seasons combined, Kentucky is a fantastic 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. After the loss at Vanderbilt where the Wildcats had a tougher game than is typical on both ends of the floor, I have no doubts about a big response tonight. Keep in mind, prior to the loss, the Wildcats had held 6 straight opponents to 39.6% or less from the field! Also, Kentucky had scored at least 76 points in 11 straight games before being held to 62 points in the loss to the Commodores. Note that Florida has been struggling badly and has failed to cover 7 of their past 8 games. Sure they are looking at this as a statement game and one last chance to make some noise on their home floor in an otherwise disappointing finish to the season. But the problem is the Gators just don't have the talent level to match up with Kentucky. This is especially true when you factor in that the Wildcats are off of a loss and will be flying all over the floor tonight as a result. Florida is off of a high-scoring loss at LSU but, prior to that game, the Gators had been held to an average of 65.5 points per game in their last 6 games. The Cats already took the first meeting between these teams by 19 points and there is every reason to believe this will be another ugly loss for a stumbling Gators team. Florida is an ugly 4-9 ATS the past three seasons when playing with road loss revenge. The Wildcats are just too talented for the Gators so when the Cats are motivated (as they will be tonight to stay tied atop the SEC), Florida will not be able to stop them. *10* KENTUCKY

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Michigan State Spartans -17.5 vs Penn State @ Noon ET - As long time followers know, I rarely play favorites in this high point spread range. However, when I see significant value I jump on it and, in this case, Michigan State should be favored by at least two dozen points in my opinion. The line is lower than it should be because the Nittany Lions have made a little noise with three straight wins. Closer examination of these three wins would raise some concerns about Penn State getting a lot of respect for the victories. Any team can score an upset on any given day but still I will give kudos to the Lions for their shocking win over Iowa but, of course, that win did come at home. Their road win in this three game streak came against an awful Rutgers team. As for the most recent win, and other home win, it came against Nebraska and the Nittany Lions very nearly blew the game as they won by a single point. The point is that, although there may have been some slight improvement with Penn State here recently they are certainly no match for a team that arguably is the hottest team in college hoops right now. Michigan State has covered 8 straight games and has gone 7-1 straight-up during this stretch. On the season, the Spartans have had many ultra dominating home wins while the Nittany Lions have had many ultra ugly road losses and that is what should be expected as it relates to today's game. The Spartans are simply too hot from three point land right now and won't be stopped at home while the Nittany Lions are well known for horrific shooting performances away from home. Penn State is 1-3 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge and I would not be surprised here to see a final score similar to the 92-65 Spartans win last month. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and they roll again here. *8* Michigan State

Rickenbach NCAAB #581 - *10* Top Play DePaul Blue Demons +13 @ Providence @ 4 ET - The Friars are off of a very tough stretch in their schedule and the fact that they failed miserably AND have a much tougher game on deck with Creighton means that Providence absolutely may not perform well against DePaul today. It is simply too easy to overlook the Blue Demons (with a 9-18 SU record) even with the revenge factor in place for Providence here. That will spell trouble for a Friars team that is on a 1-5 straight-up run that has seen them not cover any of the 6 games. Look for their ATS streak to reach 7 straight losses as they get the win but not the cover today. The problem for Providence is that they just haven't been shooting the ball well at all. That makes it very difficult to dominate a team that will certainly come into this game playing loose and could shoot lights out as certainly the Blue Demons have nothing to lose in this game. That makes for a dangerous dog at this late stage in the season when wins are more important than blowouts. DePaul gets a big boost from their win over St John's in their most recent game and the Blue Demons shot the ball well for the 4th time in their last 7 games. In fact, DePaul has hit at least 41% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games with 46% or better in 4 of those games. The Blue Demons have gone 5-1 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 12.5 to 15 points. DePaul is 8-3 ATS the past three seasons when off of a win in conference action. Also, the Blue Demons are 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. That is a huge confidence builder for DePaul. The Friars are 5-9 ATS in home games this season and Providence is also 1-9 (10%) ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Look for the disheartened Friars, who have seen their season slip away from them, to be quite sluggish in this game and, as a result, they get the win but not the cover as they look ahead to the Creighton game. *10* DEPAUL 

Rickenbach NCAAB #568 - *8* Syracuse Orange -5 vs NC State @ 2 ET - The Orange have had a full week off to contemplate their ugly home loss to Pittsburgh last week. With that said, I am expecting a huge response from Syracuse here as they are off of back to back losses for the first time since early January. The Orange had won 8 of 9 before these two defeats and they covered 7 of those 9 games too. Look for stifling defense from a fired up Syracuse team on Saturday and, quite frankly, the Wolfpack is not capable of stifling defense and that will be the difference maker here. The Orange offense will get the job done at home and NC State won't be able to do enough on the road as they get frustrated by the tenacious defense of a hungry Syracuse team early Saturday. The past three seasons combined, the Orange are a perfect 9-0 ATS when they enter a game on rest of 5 or 6 days. The Wolfpack are 15-29 SU as an underdog the past three seasons combined and with another SU loss likely here I don't see NC State staying inside this small spread. This is especially true given the situational edge for Syracuse. The Orange have extra motivation from the loss at NC State in the most recent match-up between the two teams as well as the fact that the Wolfpack knocked them out of the ACC tourney in their meeting prior to that one. Look for payback in a big way on Saturday. *8* SYRACUSE

Rickenbach NCAAB #527 - *8* Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 @ Georgia @ Noon ET - The world is likely to jump on the Bulldogs based on "home court edge" in this one. However, Georgia is struggling right now as they have lost 4 of their last 5 SU and they have failed to cover 5 of their past 6 ATS. The Bulldogs have got the cash just once in their last five home games and early Saturday they are hosting an Ole Miss team that has won 6 of their past 9 games. Although the Rebels are off of a non-covering win against Missouri, Ole Miss had previously covered 7 of it's past 9 games. That includes Mississippi covering 4 of its past 6 road games. The Rebels always play the Bulldogs tough and the past 5 meetings have been decided by a total of just 13 points. Even though Georgia has revenge for a loss at Ole Miss last month, the Rebels certainly haven't forgotten about losing their last two visits to Georgia plus being knocked out of the conference tourney by the Bulldogs two years ago. It's payback time on Saturday. *8* OLE MISS

Rickenbach NCAAB #729 - *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +1 @ Penn State @ 7 ET - The Cornhuskers should have Shavon Shields back on the floor tonight and that is a great boost as he's their star player. However, Andrew White III is also listed as probable for tonight's game for the Huskers and that is also a big boost because he lit up Penn State when they visited Nebraska two weeks ago and Shields was out so White took over. Now with Shields and White likely to be working in tandem tonight, I am expecting a big road win for the Cornhuskers. This is one of those nice situations where the line will look "off" to many but the contrarian play is the way to go. In this case, Penn State is playing with revenge and is at home where they've gone 9-3 this season and the Nittany Lions are hosting a Huskers team that has gone 3-6 in road games this season and the line is roughly a pick'em in this game. Looks off doesn't it? Looks easy to take the Nittany Lions doesn't it? The keys here are the return of Shields, the confidence of White against the Lions, and the fact that Penn State is off of back to back wins while Nebraska is off of back to back losses since these teams met on the 13th. The Nittany Lions might overlook the Huskers after having scored a huge upset win over Iowa in their most recent home game. Penn State has been held under 39% from the field in 5 of their past 8 games as their shooting has struggled. Conversely, Nebraska had shot 48% or better in 7 of their past 11 games before a poor performance against the Buckeyes on Saturday. Look for the Huskers to respond after that poor effort. *10* Nebraska

Rickenbach NCAAB #714 - *8* Drexel Dragons -3 vs Delaware @ 6 ET - This is an "ugly game" in terms of being a battle to get out of the basement in the Colonial Athletic Conference. I see solid line value here with Drexel. The Dragons have played a road heavy schedule this season and they are hungry to finish up the season with a pair of home wins. As ugly as the season has been for Drexel, they have covered 2 of their past 3 games heading into this match-up and the Dragons are off of a big road win at William and Mary Saturday. That gives Drexel momentum coming into this revenge game with the Fightin Blue Hens. Delaware knocked off the Dragons earlier this season but these teams have split their season series each of the past two seasons and I expect that to be the case again this season with these conference rivals. The Fightin Blue Hens have won just 2 of their 16 road games this season and Delaware also has covered just 7 of its past 21 games! The Fightin Blue Hens are off of another ugly performance as they scored just 50 points in a 25 point loss at James Madison Saturday. Delaware has won the last two match-ups at Drexel and, prior to this, the Dragons had won 12 of their last 16 home match-ups with the Fightin Blue Hens. It's payback in a big way here between these rivals as the Dragons have revenge for the loss at Delaware two weeks ago as well as the fact that they have lost each of the past two home match-ups with the Fightin Blue Hens. Since these teams met two weeks ago, Drexel has gotten their offense back on track in their past three games while Delaware has struggled with it's shooting and the Fightin Blue Hens are 2-4 ATS and 1-5 SU when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. It's an "ugly" match-up but it is offering excellent line value with the home team minus the short number.

Rickenbach NCAAB #559 - *10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +7.5 @ Iowa @ 9 ET - Iowa still controls their own destiny in the Big Ten but they face a tough slate of teams to wrap up the regular season. It begins right here with a Badgers team that has been at the top of their game for many weeks now and will present a huge challenge to the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin has enjoyed plenty of success at Iowa so they certainly won't be in awe of the Hawkeyes 13-0 record in home games this season. Also, Iowa seems to be feeling the late season pressure as they have failed to cover three straight games and had outright losses in two of those three games. The Hawkeyes have had a full week off heading into this game but sometimes all that rest is not such a good thing. In fact, the past three seasons Iowa has a straight-up record of only 5-4 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. Also, their long-term ATS record when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games is 18-39 ATS. That is ugly and the lack of game action tends to hurt a team that relies so heavily on connecting with their outside shots. Having already been struggling in terms of knocking down their longer range shots, a week off isn't going to help matters. That will spell trouble against a Badgers team rolling with confidence as Wisconsin has won 8 of their last 9 games and had covered 7 straight games before coming up short at the betting window in their last two games. The Badgers had a rare "off night" with their shooting performance at Michigan State last Thursday but Wisconsin did knock off Maryland on the road prior to that game and then responded to the Spartans loss by getting back on track with a home win over Illinois. The Badgers hot shooting coupled with big production in their inside game with a pair of solid frontcourt players makes them a dangerous, hungry dog in a spot like this. Wisconsin is 11-5 ATS the past three seasons as an underdog. Also, this season, when off of a win in conference action the Badgers are 7-1 ATS. The "rust factor" for the Hawkeyes hurts them with the long layoff and Wiscy's long-term success at Iowa continues. *10* Wisconsin

Rickenbach NCAAB #727 - *8* Vanderbilt Commodores +5 @ Florida @ 7 ET - Of course, based on the road and home record of these teams it looks easy to take the home team in this one. Always remember...it's never that easy. It doesn't necessarily mean that Vanderbilt is a lock tonight as certainly there is no such thing. However, the point is that the odds makers know what they are doing and the reason that the Florida line is so small here is because the Gators are not shooting the ball well at all right now and they'll be hosting a Commodores team that is extremely hungry and wants to have a shot at The Big Dance. Vanderbilt has been surging with wins in 8 of their past 12 games. The Commodores have shot the ball very well over their past six games and have averaged 80 points per game during this solid 4-2 stretch. Vanderbilt also has been playing well on the other end of the floor too as they have held the opposition to 38% or less from the field in 5 of their past 6 games. The Gators, conversely, are not shooting the ball well at all right now. Florida has been held under 39.7% in 4 of their past 5 games and it's been a rough 2-3 stretch for the Gators as they also have not defended the 3-ball well in their last 6 games overall. Florida has just 1 cover in their past 6 games while Vandy has covered 2 of their last 3. The Gators are playing with road loss revenge but are just 4-8 ATS the past three seasons in this situation. Also, these teams have split their last 4 meetings but both of Florida's wins came by just three points. The Gators are 1-4 ATS the past 3 seasons as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Vanderbilt is 14-7 ATS in February games the past 3 seasons while Florida is 7-14 ATS in February games the past three seasons. Big value with the points as Vandy is the hotter team with the more confident shooters as they remain red hot from the field. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones +5.5 @ West Virginia @ 9 ET - I faded West Virginia on Saturday and got the easy win with Oklahoma as the underdog Sooners won outright by double digits on the road. One of the keys I noted in that game was the nagging injury situations impacting the backcourt of the Mountaineers and I mentioned how this was impacting West Virginia's ability to execute and play the style they like to play. I believe this will again be an issue again on Monday night and that is bad news as the Mountaineers are hosting a Cyclones team that has gotten back closer to full strength with the expected return of Jameel McKay. Iowa State has been shooting the ball extremely well and that makes them an ultra dangerous underdog in a spot like this. The Cyclones have hit at least 51.5% from the field in four straight games. From three point land, Iowa State has connected in the "high 30's" in each of their last two games and this was preceded by a stretch where the Cyclones connected on at least 50% of their threes in 3 of 4 games. This type of hot shooting can give fits to an aggressive defense like the Mountaineers possess. Additionally, the fact that injuries have effected the depth and abilities of West Virginia to play "their style" is also certainly impacting. The Mountaineers have lost 3 of their past 4 games and Iowa State is playing this game with home loss revenge as one of their only two home losses this season came versus West Virginia. It's payback time Monday. The Cyclones are looking to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS when playing with one day or less of rest this season. Look for Iowa State to build off of their win Saturday and improve to 17-5 SU when playing with one day or less of rest over the past three seasons. The Cyclones won here in their last visit and had taken three straight games in the series before the loss to the Mountaineers 3 weeks ago. I expect Iowa State to get their revenge but will grab the points as the value is certainly there with the generous points in this one. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 @ Miami @ 7 ET - The Cavaliers may be a small underdog here but the fact is the Cavs have a penchant for garnering motivation by being the dog. Virginia is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. The Cavs, thanks to stifling defense, have been red hot of late. The Cavaliers have won 8 of their past 9 games and they are going for their fifth straight cover in Monday's match-up at Miami. Though the Hurricanes are 13-1 at home this season, Virginia already has big road wins at Pittsburgh and at Louisville. The Cavaliers also lost by just a single point at Duke in a recent clash with the Blue Devils. The combined home record of those 3 teams so far this season is 44-6. The point is that the Cavaliers have already proven on multiple occasions this season that they can get the job done in the toughest of venues. The Hurricanes have failed to cover 7 of their past 12 games and their defense, as shown in the loss at North Carolina Saturday, is nowhere close to the level of defensive efficiency that the Cavs have displayed this season. Particularly in recent weeks, the gap in terms of level of defense in comparing Virginia and Miami has grown considerably. In what is a key battle in the ACC standings I'll grab the hotter team with the superior defense. Even though the Hurricanes are playing with revenge, they are only 3-7 ATS over the past three seasons when they are playing with road loss revenge. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Temple Owls +4 @ Houston @ 7 ET - The Owls have circled this two game road trip (Houston and then Tulsa) for multiple reasons. One is that they know that an 0-2 on this same trip last year cost them a trip to the NCAA Tourney. Another is the astonishing and embarrassing home loss they suffered against the Cougars on January 2nd. Temple lost that game by 27 points and the Owls now seek retribution in the payback opportunity at Houston. Temple is off of a home loss (albeit to a top team, Villanova) Wednesday, and the Owls will be fired up here after that loss and after what the Cougars did to them on January 2nd. In between the loss to the Cougars and the loss to the Wildcats, a span of nearly 7 weeks, the Owls only lost two games and those two defeats each came by 3 points or less. Hence, you can see the value here in getting Temple +4 in full on revenge mode. Houston has been hot but they have proven on more than one occasion that they're certainly not unbeatable at home. In fact, the Cougars have lost 2 of their past 6 games at home. Temple is 12-5 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Owls also have thrived in the underdog role this season with an 8-3 ATS mark this season. Look for Temple to play their "game of the year" in this fantastic situational spot Sunday. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Detroit Titans +14 @ Valparaiso @ 2:30 ET - Detroit got embarrassed on their home floor last month by the Crusaders. That 18 point margin of defeat was one of the largest that the Titans have suffered this season. In fact, since the calendar turned the page to 2016, Detroit has played 16 games and that ugly loss to Valparaiso is the only game that the Titans have lost by a margin greater than 8 points. That said, some payback is on order for Sunday's game against the Crusaders. Now certainly Valparaiso is the superior team and the Crusaders are very likely to get the straight-up win here. However, the point is that there is every reason to believe this game will be much closer than the first one. Detroit comes into this game having won 6 of their last 7 games. That is definitely a confidence builder. The Titans also are catching Valparaiso at the perfect time as the Crusaders are off of a hard-fought 86-84 win over Oakland which solidified Valparaiso's billing as the top team in the Horizon League. Off of that key victory, and with tough road battles at Milwaukee and Green Bay on deck, it is easy to envision the Crusaders overlooking the Titans here. Also going in our favor Sunday is the fact that Valparaiso has been getting over-valued as the season has gone on. Their non-covering win versus Oakland was the 4th ATS loss for the Crusaders in their past 5 games. Valparaiso has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Also, Detroit is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #577 - *8* Kentucky Wildcats +1 @ Texas A & M @ 6:30 PM ET - Texas A & M finally got back into the win column on Tuesday but they had to pull away late against Ole Miss and I feel strongly that all is still not well in Aggieland. Let's not forget that the Aggies had lost four straight games prior to that win over the Rebels. Also, Texas A & M, before beating Mississippi, had failed to cover 6 of 7 prior games. They now take on a Kentucky team that has been playing fantastic defense as the Wildcats have held 9 of their past 10 opponents to 41.1% or less from the field. Contrast that with a Texas A & M team that, prior to the win over the Rebels, had allowed each of their 6 prior opponents to hit at least 40% from the field. The Wildcats have truly dominated some opponents with their defense and, in looking at the other end of the floor, the Cats just have too many weapons on offense in my opinion. The Aggies had failed to cover 6 straight SEC games before pulling away late in the win over Ole Miss to get the cash. Texas A & M has not shot well in 4 of their last 6 home games. Also, the Aggies are 2-4 ATS this season when off of a win in conference action. Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Wildcats are 10-1 SU this season when the posted total on their game is in the 140 to 149.5 range. Also, Kentucky is 8-3 ATS in Saturday games this season and they "bring it" again in a game they know they have to have to maintain top status in the SEC. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #583 - *8* Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 @ West Virginia @ 4 PM ET - This is a revenge game for West Virginia but injuries to their backcourt are a concern. Both Jaysean Paige and Daxter Miles Jr. are banged up right now. This effects the depth of the Mountaineers and also effects the style of basketball they like to play. West Virginia needs healthy guards and a full complement of personnel to be able to slow down the Sooners offense like they did in Oklahoma. What was impressive about that win for OU is that they managed to get the win over the Mountaineers even though they shot just 33% from the field. That alone says a lot about just how strong the Sooners are and, coming off of a pair of recent losses, I am looking for a huge effort from Oklahoma here in a game they know they must have as they need to get back on track. 4 of the 5 losses that Oklahoma has this season have come by 5 points or less and I expect that if OU does not get the outright win here on the road that it is a game likely decided on the final possession and, as a result, the Sooners get the cash either way. The injury situation for West Virginia, even if Paige and Miles play, is absolutely significant because neither guy is 100% and they really need to be against this talented (and angry) Sooners team. Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season and they get the job done again here in bounce back mode.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #544 - *8* Syracuse Orange -3 vs Pittsburgh @ 2 PM ET - This is a fantastic situation made even stronger by the fact that this line has come down from a -5 to a -3 as of early Saturday morning. The Orange have lost 3 straight games to Pittsburgh. That includes a loss in Syracuse last season and it also includes a loss to the Panthers at Pitt earlier this season. This is a "triple revenge" spot for the Orange and I expect them to make the most of it. The situation is perfect to do just that. Pittsburgh is struggling badly right now and they were fortunate they even won their most recent game. The Panthers were at home against Wake Forest and that is a game they should have dominated and yet they were lucky they even won the game - in multiple overtimes no less! Pittsburgh has now failed to cover back to back games and, prior to the win over the Demon Deacons, the Panthers had lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 9 games overall. While Pittsburgh has floundered, Syracuse has been coming on strong. The Orange loss at Louisville on Wednesday was preceded by wins in 8 of Syracuse's last 9 games. Also, the Orange had covered 7 of those 9 games. Syracuse will quickly respond off of the loss and we're getting extra line value here because so many put so much weight into one game - the ugly Orange loss to the Cardinals. Syracuse has won 9 of their last 10 home games where the posted total is in the 135 to 139.5 range and the line here is only a -3 so look for that SU mark to improve to 10-1 while at the same time resulting in a nice ATS cover. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS this season when they are off of a win against a conference rival and Pittsburgh is 6-19 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #519 - *8* Xavier Musketeers -4 @ Georgetown @ Noon ET - Xavier has one home loss this entire season. It came at the hands of the Hoyas nearly one month ago to the day. You know what that means today! The Musketeers will be ready to avenge their only home loss of the entire season and there is on better way to do that than to exact revenge on an opponents home floor. We get line value because Xavier is on the road and that helps to strengthen the value that is available here with a Musketeers team that is 23-3 on the season. Note that in the first match-up between these teams Xavier lost despite having 17 more field goal attempts. For the game, the Musketeers had 33% more field goal attempts than did Georgetown. It was simply "one of those strange games" where the Hoyas shot lights out while the better team, Xavier, had a very poor night with their shooting. The Musketeers do have a big game on deck with Villanova but there is no way they are going to look past a team that handed them their only home loss this season. Couple that with the fact that Georgetown has struggled and lost 5 of their last 6 games and failed to cover 6 of their past 8 games, and you have solid line value here with Xavier minus the short number on the road. Look for the Hoyas to drop to 0-4 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range while the Musketeers improve to 13-4 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range. You can tell by the total that this is expected to be a higher scoring game and, historically as you can see, that favors the Musketeers at the betting window.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #510 - *8* South Florida Bulls +7.5 vs Memphis @ 11 AM ET - Not only did Memphis beat the Bulls by 15 points at home last month, the Tigers also handed South Florida one of their ugliest home losses of the season in last season's 75-48 Memphis rout. It was a Valentine's Day massacre last year but this year's game with South Florida as the host is the perfect set up for some retribution. The Tigers are unlikely to be on top of their game with this very early start time. An early game like this can have a tendency for each team to come out a little sluggish and, of course, that favors the underdog. Also, the Tigers have a huge game on deck as they host SMU on Thursday. Don't be surprised if Memphis gets caught looking ahead to that game as they did lose to the Mustangs earlier this season. As for South Florida, another disappointing overall season means this is one of the few games the Bulls have left to "make a little noise" in an otherwise uneventful season. South Florida will be gunning for the upset here. Coming off of a win at East Carolina Tuesday gives the Bulls some positive momentum heading into this game and South Florida has covered 5 of their last 7 games. The Bulls most recent home game was their ugliest home effort of the season as they were trounced by SMU. Couple that with last year's ugly home loss to Memphis and there is no doubt that South Florida is going to be highly motivated for this early Saturday match-up. The Tigers are only 2-6 in road games this season and they are 1-4 ATS this season when off of a win in conference action. The Bulls have fared well against the spread this season when facing high scoring teams as they are 6-2 ATS in games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game this season. South Florida stays inside the number again today and, in fact, just might pull off the upset win here!

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Monmouth Hawks -4.5 vs Iona @ 10 ET - Not surprisingly, the whole world seems to be lining up on Iona (the revenge seeking Gaels) as of early gameday morning. However, the Hawks are the far superior team and also have the advantage of home court in this one. Yes, the first game between these two teams ended up having a relatively tight, crazy finish but one should not overlook the fact that Monmouth had led that game by 20 points in the 2nd half! Now, at home, and still ticked off by some of the post-game antics of Iona (including statements from the Gaels coach), the Hawks will be ready to get another win in this heated series. The first victory came by 8 points but that was on the road. I look for a double digit margin in this rematch. Monmouth still remembers getting knocked out of the MAAC Tournament by Iona last spring. The Hawks, even though they got some road revenge last month, will make the most of this opportunity to blow out an overmatched foe and get some home revenge this month! Monmouth is 5-0 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 160 to 169.5 range. The Hawks are also 10-1 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. Iona is a putrid 1-5 ATS this season (and ugly 5-17 ATS the past three seasons) as an underdog. The 15-10 Gaels will prove to be no match for a 22-5 Hawks team that is much improved from last season while Iona has been on the decline this season. Look for Monmouth to drop the Gaels to 2-7 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Harvard Crimson +7.5 @ Columbia @ 6 ET - Unbelievably the Crimson are 0-8 ATS in conference play this season. However, Harvard is off of a decent performance against the top team in the Ivy League, Yale, and the Crimson won their prior game versus Brown. Harvard failed to cover in the 6 point win over the Bears but the fact that they are off of a straight-up win and then a respectable effort against the Bulldogs has me eyeing an elusive "cover" for the Crimson Friday. The first match-up that Harvard had with Columbia was decided by just a single point and the Crimson are looking to avenge that tight loss Friday. Columbia is off of a loss to Princeton and has now failed to cover any of their last four games. Even though Harvard has had some trouble on the offensive end this season, Columbia has given up 75 points per game in their last 4 games. The struggling Lions defense should allow for Harvard to "stick around" in this revenge game and I just don't see Columbia ever truly pulling away in this game. That makes the generous points well worth the taking. After their tough, high-scoring loss to Princeton, look for the Lions to drop to 1-4 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Columbia will overlook a Harvard team that is much better than their record would lead you to believe. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #532 - *10* Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.5 vs Maryland @ 8 ET - For Minnesota, this is truly their game of the year. With a disappointing 6-19 season wrapping up over the next few weeks, the last chance the Golden Gophers have to really make some noise would be to knock off a top tier team like Maryland. They are catching the Terrapins at the right time to do just that. The Terps are off of an ugly home loss to Wisconsin. While it would be normal to look for a bounce back in a spot like this, the trouble for Maryland is the fact that they have not been shooting the ball well from the outside and now they'll be without a big man down low tonight. That will exasperate the situation because points won't come as easily in the paint for the Terps either. Since covering their first Big Ten road game this season the Terrapins have not had a single road cover by a margin of more than a point in Big Ten action. They are over-valued again here as the Gophers can absolutely hang within single digits here. As ugly as Minnesota's overall record is this season they certainly have been competing of late. The Golden Gophers have 5 covers in their last 8 games overall. Also, 2 of the 3 non-covers were games decided by single digits. In other words, the likelihood of a blowout here, especially in a big game on Minnesota's home floor, is highly unlikely. Maryland is just 1-5 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Terrapins were held under 60 points for the first time this season in their loss to Wisconsin Saturday. The past two seasons, when the Terps were off of a game where they were held to 60 points or loss, they only went 3-7 ATS in their next game. As strong as Maryland has been at times this season, this is a tough spot for them as they could look ahead to upcoming big games and they also are still hanging their heads about the loss to Wiscy. The Terrapins also only have a 4-3 SU record on the road this season and only a 12-15 road record the past three seasons combined. They'll be battling just to win this game...let alone cover it! Grab the big points with a game that truly is THE GAME for Minnesota as they look at this as a chance to make noise in an otherwise disappointing season.

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Boise State Broncos +3.5 @ New Mexico @ 10 ET - Revenge is a great angle to play but it is not one you can just blindly buy into each and every time it comes up. In this case, the situation does indeed look "ripe" for a solid winner. Here we have the better team, the Broncos, playing with revenge and they are an underdog because of being on the road. That is the ideal scenario in my opinion. Boise State won both match-ups with the Lobos last season but then lost at home to New Mexico in their first meeting this season. In that game the Broncos had 14 more shot attempts from the field but simply had an "off" shooting night while the Lobos hit a surprisingly high percentage of their shots that night. That helps to give us line value tonight as a repeat of these types of statistical anomalies is highly unlikely. Additionally, the Broncos were knocked out of the conference tourney by the Lobos two years ago. Couple that with the home loss from last month and you can see why Boise State will absolutely be ready to go tonight. The Broncos are 6-0 SU and ATS the past three seasons when they are playing with home loss revenge. The Lobos are 7-12 ATS in February games the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are off of back to back hot-shooting games from three point land and they should get the revenging road win at New Mexico as the Lobos have been struggling to knock down threes in their first four games of this month. Ever since the first Boise State match-up New Mexico's shooting has cooled off. The Broncos will keep them cold in the rematch tonight.

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Duke Blue Devils +7.5 @ North Carolina @ 9 ET - Too many points here in a huge rivalry game. Sure North Carolina has revenge on their minds as they have lost each of the last three meetings between these teams but I just don't see the Tar Heels being able to attain any type of significant margin in this game. The Blue Devils have only lost 6 games all season and 4 of those 6 games were decided by 5 points or less. Duke is brimming with confidence right now as they are off back to back key wins over Louisville and Virginia. North Carolina is also off of back to back wins but the victories came against a slumping Pitt team and a down-trodden Boston College team (whom the Tar Heels barely beat). Prior to the consecutive victories, UNC lost back to back games against Louisville and Notre Dame. Overall, in North Carolina's last 6 games there have been just two victories by more than five points. This is going to be a fierce battle like it usually is when these two teams match-up and I would not be surprised to see it decided by a single possession. That is why the big value here is with the generous points. North Carolina is an ugly 5-11 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Duke is 7-3 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined and 6 of those covers have been outright wins!

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Seton Hall Pirates +2.5 @ Georgetown @ 9 ET - The Hoyas are off what was truly a miracle cover at Providence as they were down huge in that game before mounting a fierce comeback to get the cash in their loss to the Friars Saturday. While that ATS win looks good in the overall records when analyzing Georgetown it caught my eye as an opportunity to fade them in their very next game. While the comeback was nice for Hoyas backers that day, the big hole that Georgetown dug in the game was indicative of just how unstable this team is this season. The Hoyas also entered that game on Saturday having failed to cover 5 of their 6 prior games. Wednesday Georgetown is seeking revenge for a loss at Seton Hall back on the 6th of this month. The Hoyas lost that game by 8 points despite holding the Pirates to just 37% from the field in that game. That doesn't bode well for what can be expected for Georgetown tonight because that was the lowest FG % that Seton Hall had recorded in a month. In other words, don't expect a repeat tonight and adding fuel to the fire for the Pirates tonight is the fact they are off of a loss versus Butler last week. Seton Hall had previously covered 7 straight games and I look for the Pirates to get right back into the ATS win column tonight. Georgetown has a poor history of 6-16 ATS when the Hoyas are at home with a line of pick'em to -3. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS as dog this season and they are 6-1 ATS the past three season when they enter a game with 6 or more days of rest. Seton Hall has been off for a week and will take advantage by utilizing their fresh legs tonight.

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Villanova Wildcats -8.5 @ Temple @ 7 ET - Under normal circumstances a #1 ranked team like Nova might get caught overlooking an unranked foe like Temple. However, that won't be the case here because of the Big 5 rivalry in Philly. This is a huge rivalry game in Philadelphia and the Wildcats will certainly not be short on motivation as a result. In my eyes, the Cats already had their "slip up nerve rattled game" that often comes with a #1 ranking. That happened in their poor effort versus St John's Saturday. With that ugly effort out of the way, look for the Wildcats to dominate Wednesday. Villanova won last season's meeting by 23 points. Yes that game was at home but, even in the prior season, the Wildcats won big by 16 points at Temple. The Owls just don't have the talent level that the Cats do. That is why you're seeing a big line here with Villanova. Yes Temple has been hot lately but they take a major step up in level of competition here. The Owls have losses to Houston, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, that came by an average margin of 22.3 points per game. Another ugly defeat looms here as Villanova improves to an incredible 20-1 SU and 17-4 ATS in February games over the past three seasons.

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Massachusetts Minutemen +2 @ Fordham @ 7 ET - UMass is 3-6 on the road this season and Fordham is 11-4 in home games this season. Those are straight-up records and yet the Rams are only a two point favorite over the Minutemen as the host on Wednesday night. Line looks funny, doesn't it? Exactly! Don't be fooled by the "strange" line. Fade the masses here as they will all want to back the short home favorite when the reality is that Massachusetts is likely to get revenge for the home loss they suffered at the hands of Fordham last month. That is the only win the Rams have in their past six games as their shooting continues to struggle. In 4 of their past 5 losses Fordham has been held to 41.5% or less from the field. Also, the Rams aren't exactly tearing it up on the other end of the court either. Fordham has allowed at least 50% shooting from the field in each of their past 4 losses! That doesn't bode well for the Rams as they now try to slow down a UMass team that has won 3 of their past four games. The current combined record of the 3 teams that the Minutemen beat is 48-29 so these certainly weren't "gimme wins" by any stretch of the imagination. Massachusetts is averaging 76 points per game on the season while Fordham has been held to 67 points or less in 9 of their past 13 games. The Rams are 9-19 ATS (and 4-24 SU!) the past three seasons in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range and Fordham simply won't be able to keep up with a UMass team surging with confidence right now after totaling 177 points in their past two games. The Minutemen are a solid 5-2 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are playing with home loss revenge.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #545 - *10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels +9.5 @ Texas A & M @ 9 ET - The Aggies have lost four straight games and they are certainly looking for a big bounce back and are very happy to be back on their home floor tonight. However, just because odds are decent for a Texas A & M win tonight it does not mean that the Aggies are going to cover an inflated spread. The Aggies have not only lost four games in a row straight-up, Texas A & M also has failed to cover the spread in 6 of its last 7. Ole Miss comes into this game on the opposite end of the spectrum as the Rebels have covered 6 of their past 7 games. Ole Miss has won 4 of their past 6 games and, even though that was preceded by a four game losing streak, the Rebels have not lost a game by more than 9 points since a 22 point loss at Kentucky in their first game of the new year. That said, Texas A & M is no Kentucky! Look for the Rebels to challenge the Aggies throughout this game as Ole Miss has been growing in confidence with each SEC win they've been able to notch in recent weeks. In covering 6 of their past 7 games, the Rebels have been shooting the ball very well from three point land and the Aggies are unlikely to be able to pull away in this game as a result. Texas A & M is 4-8 ATS the past three seasons in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range as high-scoring games favor the opposition. That said, Ole Miss is fully capable of putting up big points and has scored at least 71 points in 11 of their past 12 games since that ugly loss to Kentucky. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS when off of a SU win in conference action and, while the Aggies are feeling the pressure, Ole Miss comes into tonight's game loose and relaxed. That is the most dangerous type of dog to face. Rebels are in this one all the way.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #501 - *8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons +11 @ Pittsburgh @ 7 ET - On one hand, this is a revenge game for Pittsburgh as they lost at Wake Forest March 1st last year. However, the prior spring the Panthers knocked the Demon Deacons out of the conference tournament so you can bet that Wake Forest will be ready to go tonight. The Demon Deacons came into this season with expectations that they were the most improved team in the ACC. However, after some impressive victories early this season in non-conference action, Wake Forest certainly has disappointed in conference action. But in this case the Demon Deacons are being given generous points by a Pittsburgh team that is having issues of its own. The Panthers have lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 9. As it stands now, Pittsburgh is just 6-6 in the ACC and, in looking at their five most recent conference wins, three have come by 5 points or less. The Panthers also have big games on deck with Syracuse, Louisville, and Duke up ahead. Pittsburgh needs to get back into the win column Tuesday and I feel they will but that doesn't mean they will cover this inflated spread. The Panthers have allowed 48.6% FG shooting in conference games this season. By comparison, the Demon Deacons have allowed 45.7% FG shooting in ACC action. Overall, on the season, Wake Forest has played the tougher schedule as they had a tough non-conference slate. That said, and coupled with this Panthers team not having the defensive and rebounding prowess of prior teams, this line absolutely is going to be a challenge for Pittsburgh to cover. Wake Forest comes into this game having shot at least 44% from the field in their past three road games and they will not go away quietly in this one. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #848 - *8* Boston College Eagles +11.5 vs Syracuse @ 1 ET - The Eagles are a classic "Ugly Dog" and I see them getting the job done here. The Eagles poor record on the season means few, if any, want to invest in them and this often ends up resulting in an inflated line on the other side. This is exactly what we have here as Syracuse is laying about a dozen points even though they are on the road and in a true lookahead situation. The Orange are off of a big win over Florida State in their most recent game and now have games on deck at Louisville and hosting Pittsburgh on deck for this week. The combined record of these three teams - FSU, Lvl, and Pitt - is 52-19. The record for Boston College so far this season is 7-17. Do you really think Syracuse is going to be fully focused on BC here? Of course not! That spells trouble for the Orange today because the Eagles have built a little confidence with some respectable performances recently. Boston College only lost to the Tar Heels - yes THOSE Tar Heels - by only 3 points in the Eagles most recent game. That was the 2nd cover in the past three games for BC as they also battled hard with Virginia in a recent road game and easily covered an inflated spread. The Eagles have NOT lost the cash in any of their last three home games and they will want to make another statement today (like they did against UNC earlier this week) because, let's face it, that's all the Eagles are playing for right now. The biggest headline they could make at this point in a disappointing season is to knock off a solid ACC foe. Look for Boston College to again put up a hard-fought battle on their home floor and stay well within this inflated number as Syracuse drops to 4-8 ATS as a road favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. The Orange are also an ugly 3-9 ATS the past three seasons when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #659 - *10* Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +6 @ SMU @ 10 ET - Gonzaga is surging and SMU is fading fast. This is why, even though the Bulldogs are on the road here, Gonzaga is well worth the investment as the Mustangs have lost all of the swagger from their 18-0 start. SMU has now lost 3 of its past 5 games and they are hosting a Bulldogs team that is 20-5 on the season and has not a single game by more than 5 points this entire season. So, as of Saturday morning, with this line sitting at +5.5 or +6, Gonzaga is getting points in a range that would make them 25-0 ATS on the season. The Bulldogs simply do not get blown out and I certainly don't expect them to lose by much at all here either...if they even lose at all. The Mustangs padded their record with a lot of cupcake opponents early this season. Conversely, Gonzaga scheduled (and battled hard with) a lot of tough opponents in the non-conference portion of their schedule. I look for this to bode well in terms of being fully prepped for the situation they are walking into Saturday. Yes, SMU is 12-1 at home this season but Gonzaga is a solid 10-2 away from home this season and the Bulldogs are clearly playing the better basketball of these two teams right now. The Mustangs have struggled to close out tight games and I look for that to continue to be an issue in a match-up Saturday that is going to be difficult for the Mustangs to build any type of sizable margin in the game. The Bulldogs are 23-12 ATS the past three seasons when playing with one day or less of rest. The Mustangs are an ugly 2-7 ATS in home game this season and SMU again appears to be overpriced here. *10* Gonzaga.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #651 - *10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane +8 @ Connecticut @ 8 ET - The Golden Hurricane are being offered some extreme line value here and I won't pass it up. Certainly Connecticut has revenge on their minds here but they are simply not a strong team on offense and that makes it difficult for the Huskies to cover spreads in this range. UConn scored just 51 points in their loss at Tulsa earlier this season and the Huskies are an ugly 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when they are a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. This is simply a tough price range for a UConn team that prides itself on defense and struggles to put up big points. Another key angle here with regards to the value on Tulsa in this match-up is the fact that the Golden Hurricanes were knocked out of the AAC Conference Tourney last year by Connecticut. Tulsa also lost in their most recent visit to UConn and that was an ugly loss by 25 points nearly a year ago to the day. That said, a little paypack is on order here and the Golden Hurricane are surging with confidence after their win at SMU on Wednesday. Tulsa has averaged 79 points per game in their last three games and all three opponents were solid AAC teams. This does not bode well for a Huskies team that has struggled in home games against quality opposition. Connecticut lost home games to Cincinnati and Temple and only averaged 55 points per game in those two games. The Huskies may get the win this time over a quality foe at home but I don't see them winning this game by more than one or two possessions. *10* Tulsa.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #606 - *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins -9 vs Wisconsin @ 6:30 ET - Many may look at the revenge angle here for Wisconsin and will be backing the Badgers. However, this truly has all the makings of a blowout win for Maryland. The fact that the Terrapins only beat Wisconsin by 3 in Madison is part of the key to this game. The Terps were up by 8 with less than a minute and a half to go in the game. Maryland let Wiscy back in it over the final minute plus of the game and narrowly escaped with the 3 point victory. Rest assured, the Terrapins learned their lesson and Maryland won't let the Badgers hang around in this game. The Terps will take advantage of a Badgers team that doesn't shoot well at all on the road. In fact, Wisconsin is averaging 62.6 points per game on the road this season while the Terrapins average  solid 80 points per game at home. Coincidentally, a victory in the range of a 15 to 20 point margin of victory is what I would expect here. The Badgers have taken advantage of a friendly schedule recently (with easier road opponents and getting the tougher opponents at home) and the result has been a 6-game winning streak. All this has done is set up Wiscy with false confidence heading into a game in a venue that will result in a complete mismatch for the Badgers Saturday. They don't have the athleticism to keep up with Maryland and Wisconsin does not shoot well enough on the road to keep up with the Terrapins. The fact that Maryland nearly lost at Wiscy after blowing a late 8 point lead in Madison last month ensures that the Terrapins will keep the hammer down late in this game. Instead of allowing an 8 point lead to get whittled down this time that lead will turn into an ever bigger lead and the blowout will be on and will stay on. Maryland is off of an easy win over a non-conference opponent so their lineup is well rested and the Terps have a 6-18 Minnesota team on deck so the Terrapins will absolutely put everything they have into this game Saturday and that's bad news for an over-matched Badgers team. *10* Maryland

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #631 - *8* Virginia Cavaliers +2 @ Duke @ 4:30 ET - The Blue Devils have such an incredible history in home games that they are likely to be a popular choice in this match-up with highly-ranked Virginia on Saturday. The key to the value with the road dog here includes the fact that the Cavaliers are seeking revenge for a home loss they were dealt by Duke last January. This is the first meeting since then and the Cavs certainly come into this one red hot and ready to go. Virginia not only has shot better than the Blue Devils this season, the Cavaliers also are superior on defense and certainly they have turned things up a notch in recent games. The Cavs have won 7 straight games and, in covering 3 of their past 4 games ATS, the Cavaliers have held all 4 opponents to 39% or less from the field. To properly put that into perspective, Duke has allowed 10 of its past 12 opponents to hit at least 42% from the field. The fact that Virginia is finally realizing that they must play stifling defense to get where they want to go this season and achieve their goals is leading to some fantastic line value here with the Cavaliers. By taking the Cavs, we have the revenge angle, the vastly superior defense, the hotter team, and we're getting a few points to boot! Duke has already lost at home to Syracuse and Notre Dame and Virginia is superior to both of those teams. Grab the points with the Cavaliers.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #505 - *8* Georgetown Hoyas +4 @ Providence @ Noon ET - With their victory at Georgetown two weeks ago, Providence has taken three straight games in this series. However, all three Friars wins have been by 4 points or less. Not only do the Hoyas have revenge on their minds here, Georgetown is also catching Providence at the perfect time for the upset. The Friars have lost three straight games since the win over the Hoyas. Providence has struggled on offense this season and this has been particularly true of late. Additionally, the Friars are not known for their defensive prowess so when the offense struggles, Providence struggles. Georgetown certainly has the superior defense in this match-up and the Hoyas also have the "triple revenge" angle working in their favor here. Georgetown enters this game off of a confidence boosting 92-67 win on Monday. The Hoyas defense will be the difference maker in this one and Georgetown is 9-4 straight-up this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Providence is 5-8 ATS in home games this season and the Friars will be in a fierce battle just to win this game...let alone earn the cover. In other words, the value is with the road dog plus the points. Expect a Georgetown upset but grab the points just in case.

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Penn Quakers +9.5 @ Columbia @ 7 ET - Penn just swept their weekend set with Dartmouth and Harvard for the first time since 2008. The Quakers, a young team, have certainly started to jell as the season has gone on. That makes Penn a very dangerous dog in this spot. There is no quit in these Quakers and they've been hitting the boards hard and winning the rebounding battles as well as cutting down on the turnover issues that plagued them early this season. Penn's overall record may not be that impressive but the key here is the growth of the team and the confidence they now have heading into this weekend as well as the fact that many of their early season defeats were tight losses. 6 of their 10 losses dating back to late November have come by 6 points or less. This includes a pair of OT losses. One of those OT losses was to a tough Princeton team and the Quakers also have another tight loss (by just 4 points) to a solid Temple team this season. The point is that it is going to be tough for Columbia to pull away in this game. Even though the Lions split their games this past weekend they were somewhat fortunate to even get that split. The defense for Columbia was bad in each game as they were lit up for 50%+ from the field overall (as well as from beyond the arc!) in both games. The Lions also could "relax" a little this weekend now that they are finally back home and this means a sagging defense against a foe they could easily overlook since Penn has a losing record on the season and Columbia has Princeton on deck Saturday night. Big value with the hungry and surging road dog in this one! Grab the points with Penn for a *10* Top Play Friday.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #755 - *10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5  @ Indiana @ 9 ET - Not surprisingly, the whole world has jumped on Indiana early in this one. The line has gone from as low as a pick'em to the Hoosiers now being favored by 2.5 points. Of course everyone is looking at the perfect home record Indiana has and is feeling this is a "gift" from the odds makers. Of course there is no such thing and I see even bigger value with this play now that the Hawkeyes are getting a few points. Iowa won at Indiana last season so there is certainly no intimidation factor here. Also, the Hawkeyes come into this game having won 16 of their past 18 games. One of those losses came by just a single point. That is why there is such huge value with Iowa in this spot. The Hawkeyes are the better team defensively. Iowa also has the deeper bench. The Hoosiers will try to bounce back tonight after the loss at Penn State on Saturday but, make no mistake about it, that was a crushing Big Ten loss for Indiana. That is the type of defeat that is toughest to bounce back from as the Hoosiers (a 9 point favorite) certainly had no business losing that game. However, disappointing their backers is nothing new for Indiana as they have failed to cover 3 of their past 4 games and I again feel they are getting to much respect from the betting public in this match-up. Don't fall for the trap here. There is a reason this line opened near pick'em even though the Hoosiers are undefeated at home this season. Iowa continues to fly under the radar and yet they are 8-3 ATS in Big Ten action this season. Look for yet another solid cover tonight.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #751 - *8* Illinois State Redbirds +9 @ Evansville @ 9 ET - The Redbirds lost by double digits to the Purple Aces last month and that game was at Illinois State. With that said, why should we expect things to change at Evansville? Amazingly, the Redbirds lost by 11 to the Purple Aces despite having 75 shot attempts in the game compared to just 44 for Evansville. This is another one of those statistical anomalies that is serving to give us line value in the rematch. Now, since Evansville is hosting the Redbirds and already won by double digits at Illinois State, many will expect the Purple Aces to roll at home. That is unlikely to be the case. The Redbirds come into this game having won 5 of their past 6 games since the frustrating loss to Evansville. Also, Illinois State has covered 4 of its past 5 games and the lone defeat they've had in this stretch came by a single point. Tonight the Redbirds are a 9 point dog at Evansville. This is huge line value as the Purple Aces come into this game slumping. They are off of a big win versus Missouri State that covered but previously had gone 1-4 ATS since the win over the Redbirds. Also, Illinois State's confidence is sky high after knocking off Wichita State Saturday and overcoming an unusually poor shooting night in that game. Look for the Redbirds to bring forward some of that same defensive intensity tonight as their D got all the credit for the win over the Shockers. Look for a repeat of another big effort on that end tonight. The Purple Aces are 2-5 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #723 - *8* Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers +6 @ Oakland @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Panthers and I see huge value with them getting a half dozen points on the road. UW-Milwaukee suffered a home loss to Oakland last month by 3 points and that was largely due to some ridiculous three-point shooting by the Golden Grizzlies. They knocked down 11 of 17 threes while the Panthers hit a more normal 10 of 34. The point is that Oakland scored more from three point land even though they took half as many shots. That is certainly a statistical anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated here and, keep in mind, the difference was just 3 points (ironically) in that game. Now the Panthers are on the road seeking revenge but that should not be cause for concern. UW-Milwaukee is a fantastic 7-2 ATS on the road this season. In fact, the Panthers have only two losses this entire season that have come by more than 4 points. As for Oakland, they have produced an incredible ATS record this season so the odds maker has no choice but to now inflate their lines. The key to me going against the Golden Grizzlies here is not only the line value but also the fact the few losses Oakland has had this season have come (as you would expect) when they take a step up in class and the Panthers are absolutely one of the top teams in the Horizon League. Don't be surprised if UW-Milwaukee gets the outright win here and certainly the value is with taking the points here with the road dog Panthers.

Rickenbach NCAAB #569 - *10* Top Play San Jose State Spartans +15.5 @ UNLV @ 10 ET - It is no secret that the UNLV basketball program has had issues this season. The key here is that the Runnin' Rebels are not showing any real signs of turning things around and I expect they will have their hands full in dealing with a surging San Jose State team tonight. While the Spartans have won two straight (including an upset win over a solid Fresno State team), they have had a full week off to prepare for this game with a slumping Rebels team. UNLV has lost three straight games both SU and ATS and they've been trying to work in some new defensive looks. The problem is that it is not going well as the Runnin' Rebels have allowed 99 points per game in their past two games. UNLV truly has not had a solid performance defensively in the past two and a half weeks. As for the Spartans, they've started to jell well as a solid unit and San Jose State has held their last two opponents to just 53.5 points per game and a combined shooting percentage in the 31% to 32% range. This gives the Spartans some solid momentum and confidence heading into this match-up with UNLV and the big points appear to be well worth it considering the situation. The Spartans have covered 3 straight games and eight of their last ten. The Rebels came into the season with much higher expectations and yet have not been able to live up to those and they are constantly (and unsuccessfully) having to make changes on the fly. In conference action this season, UNLV has only one win by more than 12 points. I don't see them getting another one here. The Rebels are 2-4 ATS this season when off of a loss in conference action. A big bounce back is unlikely here. The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, on the season, San Jose State is 3-0 ATS when they're off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. *10* on Spartans with the big points here!

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #559 - *8* Missouri Tigers +17 @ Vanderbilt @ 9 ET - The Tigers have had another tough season to say the least but the fact is that the Commodores are simply over-priced here. Missouri has covered each of their past two games. After a tough, tight home loss to Ole Miss last Wednesday, the Tigers then showed some resolve in battling hard at Alabama on Saturday. Even after getting down big early in the second half, Missouri kept "pushing it" against the Crimson Tide and eventually lost by single digits. The Tigers are showing they have no quit and I like the big points here against a Vanderbilt team that is a money-burning 3-8 ATS in SEC action this season. In SEC action the Commodores don't have a single win by more than a margin of 18 points and, with the way the Tigers are battling right now I think this line is definitely inflated today. Vanderbilt has been very sloppy in recent games and turnovers are a concern. That's going to be a problem in "putting away" Missouri in this match-up. The Commodores shot much better than the Rebels in their 7 point loss at Ole Miss on Saturday and that says a lot about the other problems that Vandy is having on the floor right now. In home games with a total in the 135 to 139.5 point range the Commodores are on a long-term 11-20 ATS run. Vandy is 1-3 ATS when off of a loss to a conference foe so they have struggled to bounce back off of SEC defeats thusfar. Also, the past three seasons combined, Vanderbilt has lost 5 of 6 games when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Tigers to get their third straight ATS cover here as the recent suspensions have actually helped this Missouri team as they have played better now that the off-court issues have been handled. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #744 - *6* Creighton Blue Jays +1.5 vs Xavier @ 8 ET - The line certainly looks funny here and long-time followers know what I am doing as a result. We're fading the masses who will line up on Xavier with their 21-2 record on the season and basically being installed as a "pick em" in this game. The Musketeers are a highly-ranked team and facing an unranked Creighton team and yet basically just being asked to win the game here. Look for Xavier to prove to be "fools gold" in this match-up. The Musketeers have faced some weaker Big East foes recently and that has allowed some bad habits to develop on defense. Xavier has allowed an average of 82.5 points per game in their past two games and the Musketeers are allowing a combined average of nearly 50% shooting from the field in their past three games! Creighton was able to get their offense going in their most recent game at home and that gives them confidence heading into a big home match-up with Xavier. The Blue Jays want this game badly and are known for putting up some huge performances on their home floor. They have played the Musketeers very tough in recent seasons including a one point home loss last year and a big road win at Xavier. The season prior the Blue Jays knocked the Musketeers out of the Big East tourney. Xavier is 3-11 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Creighton is 5-1 ATS this season in games against teams averaging 77 points or more.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #718 - *6* Purdue Boilermakers +1 vs Michigan State @ 7 ET - This game is in a "pick em" range and I love taking the lower ranked team in a match-up like this especially when they are at home. No doubt the Boilermakers will be motivated for this game as the Spartans have won each of the meeting the past two seasons. Purdue catches Michigan State at a good time as the Spartans are off of a big win over the in-state rival Wolverines. The Boilermakers are off of a rare loss and the final score is not indicative of how tough Purdue played at Maryland on Saturday as the game was much closer than the final score would lead you to believe. The Boilermakers have not lost two straight games this entire season and, after that road loss, I look for them to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. Both Michigan State and Purdue are allowing just 63 points per game this season but the Boilermakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when facing teams that are allowing 64 points or less per game. The teams' offenses are each averaging in the 78 to 80 point range this season and the Spartans are an ugly 2-5 ATS this season in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game.