10* NFL Super Bowl 58 VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: Chiefs +123

10* NFL Championship Sunday TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Chiefs +4.5

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Chiefs +130 

10* NFL Texans/Ravens ATS SLAUGHTER 

PLAY ON: Ravens -9.5

10* NFL Wild Card Monday Top Play

PLAY ON: Bucs +3 

10* NFL Wild Card Sunday TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Cowboys -7

10* NFL Wild Card Saturday TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Browns/Texans OVER 44.5

10* NFL Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON: Chiefs/Chargers OVER 35

10* NFL Texans/Colts Saturday TOP PLAY 

PLAY ON: Texans -130 (ML)

10* NFL Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Colts -3

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Ravens/49ers OVER 46

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON Jags/Bucs OVER 43

10* NFL Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: Rams -3.5

10* NFL Monday Night Football TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Eagles/Seahawks OVER 45

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE YEAR

PLAY ON: Bills -1.5

10* NFL Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Vikings/Bengals OVER 40

10* NFL Bills/Chiefs AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Chiefs -1

10* NFL - Pats/Steelers TNF Top Play 

PLAY ON: Pats/Steelers UNDER 30.5

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON: 49ers -2.5

10* NFL Seahawks/Cowboys TNF Top Play 

PLAY ON: Seahawks +9.5

10* NFL Bears/Vikings MNF VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON: UNDER 43

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Eagles -3

10* NFL NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Rams PK

10* NFL - Browns/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON: Browns +1.5

10* NFL - 49ers/Seahawks VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON: 49ers -7

10* NFL Eagles/Chiefs MNF Top Play 

PLAY ON: Chiefs -2.5

10* NFL Sunday Night Football TOP PLAY 

PLAY ON BRONCOS -2.5

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Chargers -3

10* NFL Thursday Night Football (CIN vs BAL) PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Ravens -3

10* NFL Broncos/Bills VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON BRONCOS/BILLS OVER 47.5

10* NFL Falcons/Cardinals VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON FALCONS/CARDINALS OVER 43

10* NFL - 49ers/Jags VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -3

10* NFL Chargers/Jets VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS +3.5

10* NFL Bills/Bengals VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON CINCINNATI BENGALS -127

10* NFL Cowboys/Eagles VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON DALLAS COWBOYS +3

10* NFL Dolphins/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2.5

10* NFL - Raiders/Lions VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +7.5

10* NFL Browns/Seahawks SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON CLEVELAND BROWNS +4

10* NFL Pats/Dolphins VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +9.5

10* NFL Bucs/Bills TNF VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON BUCS/BILLS OVER 43.5

10* NFL 49ers/Vikings VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7

10* NFL Dolphins/Eagles VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5

10* Packers/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON GREEN BAY PACKERS -1

10* NFL Jaguars/Saints TNF PLAY OF THE MONTH 

PLAY ON NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1

10* NFL Cowboys/Chargers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +2

10* NFL Eagles/Jets VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS +7

10* NFL Seahawks/Bengals VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON CINCINNATI BENGALS -2.5

10* NFL Broncos/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -10.5

10* NFL Packers/Raiders VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -1.5

10* NFL Jets/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS +2

10* NFL Non Conf PLAY OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -1

10* NFL Bears/Commanders VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON BEARS/COMMANDERS OVER 44

10* NFL Seahawks/Giants VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SEAHAWKS/GIANTS OVER 47

10* NFL Ravens/Browns VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5

10* NFL Dolphins/Bills VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON BUFFALO BILLS -2.5

10* NFL Lions/Packers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON DETROIT LIONS -1.5

10* NFL Rams/Bengals VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LOS ANGELES RAMS +2

10* NFL Steelers/Raiders SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5

10* NFL Titans/Browns AFC PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5

10* NFL Giants/49ers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON GIANTS/49ERS OVER 43.5

10* NFL Browns/Steelers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 

10* NFL Dolphins/Patriots VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3

10* NFL 49ers/Rams VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON LOS ANGELES RAMS +7.5

10* NFL Chiefs/Jaguars VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3

10* NFL Vikings/Eagles VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON VIKINGS/EAGLES OVER 49

10* NFL Bills/Jets VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS +2.5

10* NFL Cowboys/Giants VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5

10* NFL Bengals/Browns VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON CLEVELAND BROWNS +3

10* NFL Lions/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LIONS/CHIEFS OVER 53 

10* Chiefs/Eagles Super Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +1.5: All I've heard leading up to this game is that Philadelphia has the better team and if the Chiefs didn't have Mahomes there's no way KC could beat this team. Mahomes is great, but there's a lot more talent on this Chiefs team than they are getting credit for and I think those other 52 guys are going to come out with a massive chip on their shoulder in this game. 

I'm not saying the Eagles aren't a very good football team, but you can't not factor in the schedule. Philly played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Chiefs played one of the hardest. Yet these two teams finished the regular-season with the same 14-3 record. KC's three losses came by 4 points or fewer. I don't know that Philly goes 14-3 if you give them the Chiefs' schedule. I'm also not convinced they beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship if Purdy doesn't get hurt on the first series. 

Yes, the offensive and defensive lines for the Eagles are very good, but it's not like these two units are going up against a cupcake on the other side. The Chiefs also have one of the best offensive lines in the league and there d-line has played great in the playoffs. 

If KC's line can put up some resistance and Mahomes isn't running for his life, I think the Chiefs are going to have no problem moving the football. I don't know that it's going to be as easy for the Eagles offense, especially if KC gets any sort of lead and forces the Eagles to throw it more than they would like. Either way, I feel Mahomes and the Chiefs are being extremely disrespected in this game and they are the better team with the best quarterback on the planet. Give me Kansas City +1.5! 

10* NFL AFC Championship VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5: I will gladly take my chances with the Chiefs as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. The betting public is all over Cincinnati in this one. Bengals have had the Chiefs number of late and there's some uncertainty to just how healthy Mahomes is going to be after suffering a high ankle sprain in KC's win last week against the Jaguars. 

Chiefs blew big leads in both losses to the Bengals last year and were missing several key guys on both sides of the ball in the loss to Cincinnati during the regular season this year. All 3 wins were by a mere 3 points. There's not a team KC would rather have to beat to get back to the Super Bowl. Add in all the Bengals trash talk with the "Burrowhead" comments and what not, has really made this game personal. 

I'm not concerned with Mahomes being 100% or not with that ankle. He certainly hasn't looked that hobbled in practice and it's not like he can't be great by throwing out of the pocket. 

The big thing that I think is getting overlooked in this game is the Bengals' offensive line. They have lost 3 starters down the stretch from a unit that lacks depth. That weakness wasn't a big factor against the Bills for a couple of reasons. One, Buffalo's defensive front hasn't been the same since losing Von Miller. Second, the o-line was helped out tremendously by all the snow last week. It's a lot harder for the defensive to get off the ball when it's a sloppy field like that. This is a much better front for the Chiefs and a game where I think Chris Jones could dominate. 

The fact that KC was a TD favorite in last year's AFC Championship Game speaks to the value we are getting in this one. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Chiefs ended up winning this game going away. Give me Kansas City -1.5! 

10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Cowboys/Bucs OVER 45.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 45.5 in Monday's NFC Wild Card showdown between the Cowboys and Bucs. I'm well aware that Tampa Bay beat Dallas by a score of just 19-3 during the regular-season. That was back in Week 1. 

I'm focused more on what I've seen from these two teams over the last 4-6 weeks of the regular-season. For Dallas, they have really had to rely heavily on their offense, as the defense that looked so good early on in the year has been exposed on several occasions. The OVER had cashed in 5 straight before they went UNDER in their last two. Thing is in Week 17 they played at the Titans who have no offense and were resting guys leading up to their big game vs the Jags in Week 18. Dallas then had a pretty meaningless game in Week 18 at Washington and it showed in their 6-26 loss. 

Tampa Bay's defense is good and does matchup well with their ability to stop the run, but Dak should be able to exploit this season for the Bucs. TB was great at holding bad offenses with average QBs in check, but they struggled against the more efficient QBs. 

As for the Tampa Bay offense, I think they showed a lot of good signs down the stretch. Brady threw for 411 yards in their division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 17. I'm pretty confident the Bucs will move the ball in this one. I just think there's going to be more than enough scoring to get this game into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

10* NFL Wild Card Sunday VEGAS INSIDER: Baltimore Ravens +8.5

I'll take my chances with Baltimore as a 8.5-point dog against the Bengals on Wild Card Sunday. Yes, Cincinnati just beat the Ravens 27-16 at home in Week 18 to lock up the AFC North title. It never really felt like it was that close, as the Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 lead and led 24-7 at the half. 

Most are going to just assume Cincinnati is going to roll again at home against these Ravens. I'm not as convinced. Not enough is being made about Baltimore's defense and the job it did against this Bengals offense. Cincinnati was only able to put up 257 total yards. Baltimore had 386 total yards averaging 5.1 yards/play to the Bengals 4.0. 

Ravens rested two of their biggest offensive weapons in running back J.K. Dobbins and tight end Mark Andrews. They also were down to 3rd string rookie quarterback Anthony Brown. While Brown is expected to see some action in this one, 2nd string quarterback Tyler Huntley is expected to play. 

It feels like no one is giving this Ravens team any chance of winning this game. I just think that's a big mistake with how well this Baltimore defense is playing. If they can get the run game going with Dobbins, they got a legit shot to pull off the upset. Either way, I think they keep this to a 1-score game. Give me the Ravens +8.5! 

10* NFL  Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER: Chargers -2 

I'll take my chances with the Chargers as a 2-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Saturday's AFC Wild Card matchup. You got to tip your hat to Jacksonville for turning their season around, but the only reason this team is in the playoffs is because they won a bad division (AFC South). They also benefited from an extremely easy schedule down the stretch. In their 5 game winning streak to end the year, they played the Titans twice, Cowboys at home, Jets and the Texans. The win over Dallas was impressive, but they also had to come from way behind to win that game. Justin Herbert should be able to exploit a bad Jaguars secondary. At the same time, I don't see the Jacksonville offense doing a whole lot. Give me the Chargers -2! 

10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -2

I love the Dolphins laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets in Week 18. I get both of these teams have not played great down the stretch. Both come into this game having lost 5 straight. The big difference is, New York's 6-23 loss at Seattle last week ended any hopes they had of making the playoffs. Miami is still alive and very much so. All they need is a win and for Buffalo to defeat the Patriot at home and they are in. 

I think the only reason this line isn't pushing a touchdown, is the fact that the Dolphins are down to 3rd string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Can this team win in the playoffs with Thompson as their quarterback? Probably not, but he's facing an unmotivated Jets team that hasn't put up more than 17 points in each of their last 4 games, failing to reach double-digits in each of their last 2 games. He doesn't have to be great and let's not forget who he has to throw the ball to. Having a full week to prepare is also going to help him. I just think the line has been adjusted too much for him being the starter and not enough for the spot. Give me the Dolphins -2! 

10* NFL Titans/Jags AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Titans +6.5

I love the Titans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jaguars in Saturday's winner take all for the AFC South title. I know it's technically Week 18, but this 100% going to have the feel of a playoff game. It's asking a lot for the Jags to win by a full touchdown in this spot. This is a young team that hasn't been in this kind of pressure, where Tennessee has a bunch of dudes that have played very meaningful games in January the past few seasons. 

I think that people also get lost in the fact that the Titans come in having lost 6 straight and Jacksonville has won their last 4. We kind of knew given Tennessee's injuries that it was going to come down to this game. We saw the Titans rest all their guys last week against Dallas. Jags decided to play their starters in a meaningless game vs the Texans. Tennessee should be the fresher team and more importantly they are as healthy as they have been in a while, especially on defense. 

Dobbs isn't great and probably a downgrade from Tannehill, but he's also a massive upgrade over what they were working with in rookie Malik Willis. Not saying Titans will win, but they should at the very least keep this within the number. Give me Tennessee +6.5! 

10* NFL NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Panthers/Bucs UNDER 40.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 40.5 in Sunday's huge NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Bucs. 

I know Carolina just put up 37 points and 570 total yards in last week's 14-point win at home over the Lions, but that's not a very good Lions defense. It's also a Detroit defense that struggles to stop the run and this Panthers offense is built around their run game. 

Running the football on the Bucs will be a much more difficult task. Keep in mind the Panthers did run for 173 yards at home in their previous meeting with Tampa Bay and still only managed 21 points. 

Tampa Bay could only manage a field goal in that first matchup, as the game saw a mere 24 combined points. Things haven't gotten a whole lot better for the Bucs offense as the season has went on. TB has scored fewer than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games with a 23-point showing against the Bengals being their highest output during this stretch. 

You add in 1st place in the NFC South being up for grabs and I just think we are going to have a playoff like atmosphere in Tampa Bay on Sunday. I think that only helps us, as I see both offenses playing more to not screw it up than taking a bunch of chances. Either way, I don't see this getting into the 40s. Give me the UNDER 40.5! 

10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts +4

I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 4-point home dog against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. Not many are going to want anything to do with betting Indy in this one. Not after last week's historic collapse against the Vikings, where Indy somehow managed to turn a 33-0 halftime lead into a 36-39 OT loss. It was the largest blown lead in NFL history and you can bet this Colts team is sick and tired of hearing about it. What better way to put it to rest, than playing at home on Monday Night Football against an opponent fighting for their playoff lives. 

I also like the decision head coach Jeff Saturday has made to bench Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles. A move I think they should have done a long time ago. Ryan just has been too inconsistent and has done a horrible job protecting the football. Foles gives that offense new life and it simply can't be any worse. 

As for the Chargers, they haven't exactly been clicking on the offensive side of the ball. LA scored just 20 points on the road in a loss to the Raiders, put up 23 at home against a very average Dolphins defense and last week snuck by a bad Titans defense with a 17-14 win. This is also a Chargers defense that has allowed 368.6 ypg and 6.2 yards/play on the road this season. I just can't get to them being this big a road favorite. Give me the Colts +4! 

10* NFL Christmas Day ATS MASSACRE: Denver Broncos -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Rams. The fact that Denver, who is just 4-10, is favored on the road against the defending champs, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this season has went for Los Angeles. Injuries have completely derailed any hopes the Rams had of running it back. Just on the offensive side of the ball, they have lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, one of the best WR in the game in Cooper Kupp and their big FA signing at WR in Allen Robinson. They have also had a ridiculous 14 different starters on the offensive line. No injuries at running back, but they might as well, but it's not like they can run the ball. 

Baker Mayfield is starting at quarterback after he was claimed off waivers a couple weeks ago. Mayfield did lead a crazy comeback win against the Raiders in his first start, but the offense managed just 3 points for 56+ mins of that game. They then proceeded to score just 12 points and rack up a mer 156 total yards in a 12-point loss at Green Bay last week. 

Simply put, this offense is down bad, even more so than this Broncos team. You combine that with the talent Denver has on the defensive side of the football and I just think it's without question the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. The Broncos offense has looked a little more competentent of late as well, scoring 24 last week in a win at home over Arizona and 28 the week before against the Chiefs. I'm confident they can score enough to win this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Broncos -2.5! 

10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Giants +4

I got no problem taking the 4-points with the Giants as they go on the road to face the Vikings on Saturday. I just don't think Minnesota should be laying more than a field goal in this match. The Vikings are without a doubt the luckiest team in the NFL this season. They added yet another close win to their resume with last Saturday's crazy 39-36 OT win over the Colts, where they rallied from a 33-0 halftime deficit. You just can't keep winning games like this. 

I also think this is a horrible matchup for the Vikings. Minnesota has not been able to get their run game going of late. Vikings have eclipsed 100 yards rushing just once in their last 5 games and are averaging just 74.4 ypg during this stretch. I don't know if having to rely heavily on the pass game is a good strategy against a stingy Giants secondary. New York's only giving up 216.9 passing yards/game on the season and have allowed more than 300 yards passing just once all season. 

If the offense struggles to throw, they could find themselves in another big hole in this one, because there's no signs that this Vikings defense is going to get better. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in total defense, giving up 278.8 ypg. They are allowing an average of 6.2 yards/play and are giving up an average of 31.3 ppg over their last 6 contests. Give me the Giants +4! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New York Jets -1.5

I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Jags on Thursday Night Football. This is just too good a price to pass up on New York, especially at home in a game that will be played on just 3 days rest. Home team has a huge edge in this one. Jets should be extra motivated coming into this game having lost 3 straight. All 3 games they could have easily won. 

I thought Zach Wilson played well last week in place of Mike White. Better than expected. Maybe the benching helped him. Either way, this is another defense he should be able to move the ball against. Jacksonville is giving up 26.4 ppg, 394 ypg and 6.0 yards/play on the road this season. 

I also think this is a big flat spot for Jacksonville off last week's huge 17-point come from behind win at home against the Cowboys. How much of that was Dallas looking ahead to this week's game against the Eagles? It certainly didn't look like the Cowboys were fully invested. This is also the 3rd road game in less than 4 weeks for Jacksonville, who has shockingly will not play a single stretch all season where they play two consecutive games at home. This team is on a plane to a new city or back home every week. This feels like the spot where it catches up to them. Give me the Jets -1.5! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans +3

I love the Titans as a 3-point road dog against the Chargers. This is a great buy-low spot on the Titans coming off last week's surprising 22-36 loss at home to the Jags. It's also a great sell-high spot on the Chargers, who are off a 23-17 upset win at home against the Dolphins. 

I get there was a lot not to like with the performance the Titans gave against the Jags, but it is worth noting they turned it over 4 times in that game. Jaguars had to go less than 50 yards on each of their first 3 scoring drives. It had them playing from behind and that's just not an ideal scenario for this run-heavy team. 

They shouldn't have any problem keeping their offense humming along in this one, as the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I know LA's defense played great against Tua and the Dolphins, but I believe that was more of them just copying what the 49ers did to slow down Miami. I haven't even got into all the injuries the Chargers are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball. 

I know it will be Justin Herbert facing off against this bad Titans secondary, but I think the Titans are going to be able to get a pass rush going in this game. Herbert has been running for his life of late. He's been sacked 18 times in the last 4 games, getting sacked at least 4 times in each game. Herbert may very well throw for a bunch of yards, but those negative plays are going to kill drives. I also think it will be tough for LA to execute in the redzone. Simply put, I like the Titans to win this game and to do so rather easily. Give me Tennessee +3! 

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I'll take my chances with the Jaguars as a 4-point home dog against the Cowboys. I just think this Cowboys team is a bit overrated and simply being asked to lay too many points on the road in a massive lookahead spot. Next week's showdown with the Eagles is being hyped like it's the Super Bowl. It's certainly a game Dallas has been looking forward to with all the hype Philly has been getting this season. 

I get the Cowboys come into this game having won 4 straight, but I don't think they have necessarily played great. Sure they couldn't have looked better in a 40-3 win at Minnesota to start the win streak back in Week 11, but the Vikings are as big a fraud as you are going to find. They far from dominated the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Day the next week. They did beat the Colts 54-19, but they did go into the 4th quarter of that game leading 21-19. Last week they trailed going into the 4th quarter against one of the league's worst teams in the Texans, scoring a late TD to sneak out a 27-23 win. 

Thing is, when you are winning you don't really focus on the negatives like you do when you are losing. You also have a tendency to repeat those mistakes. I definitely think that will be the case here and I just don't think this Jags team is one you want to overlook right now. Jacksonville deserves a lot of credit for their 14-point road win over the Titans last week. Trevor Lawrence is only getting better and it just feels like this team has figured some things out. 

I can assure you the Jags are going to be motivated for this game. They are basically in playoff mode right now, as they probably need to win out to have any real shot at making the playoffs. Give me the more motivated team, playing at home and getting points. Give me the Jaguars +4! 

10* NFL - 49ers/Seahawks NFC West PLAY OF THE YEAR: San Francisco 49ers -3

I'll take my chances with the 49ers laying just 3-points on the road against Seattle. If this game were being played about a month ago, I'd say it was about right. A lot has changed for these teams, most notably San Francisco. 

The 49ers traded for star running back Christian McCaffrey and have seen Brandon Aiyuk blossom alongside Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. It's why I'm not overly concerned about the absence of Samuel in this game, especially against what I think is a pretty bad Seattle defense. 

San Francisco also has a new quarterback by injury and don't seem to concerned about it. Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in last year's draft, has thrived in relief. He played great coming off the bench in the game Jimmy G got hurt against the Dolphins. He was every bit as good in his first start against the 49ers, as SF won in a blowout 35-7. I'm going to jump on the Purdy bandwagon until he doesn't deliver. 

As for the Seahawks, their midseason momentum has been put to a stop with 3 losses in their last 4 games. The run game has disappeared (60.0 ypg L4), Geno Smith isn't playing as well as he was and the defense is getting exposed again. I can't see them getting the run game going against the 49ers defense. Smith is going to have to play out of his mind for Seattle to move the football. 

I just don't see the Seahawks being able to keep pace. I like the 49ers to not just win and cover, but to win here convincingly. Give me San Francisco -3! 

10* AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans -3.5

I can't help myself but to lay it with the Titans at home against the Jaguars. I just don't understand all the Jacksonville love from the oddsmakers this season. Jacksonville is just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games, yet are being treated here like they are the same playing field as the Titans. Not to mention Tennessee just seems to be a team that year in and year out get no respect. Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and yet are 8-4 ATS this year. 

Tennessee is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and those 3 losses are to the Chiefs by 3, the Bengals by 4 and then last week's ugly 25-point loss at the Eagles. I get it the loss was bad, but that was a tough matchup for the Titans. It's not going to be as tough on their offense against the Jags. 

This is also a Jaguars offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games. One exception was they scored 27 on an awful Raiders defense. They also had 28 in that crazy win over the Ravens at home a couple weeks back. Jacksonville had just 10-points in that game with under 6 minutes to play. 

I also look at the head-to-head in this series, which has been dominated by the Titans. Tennessee has won the last 5 meetings with each of the last 3 wins combing by at least 18 points. Give me the Titans -3.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Raiders/Rams OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Raiders and Rams on Thursday Night Football. If the Raiders don't push for 30 points in this game, I would be shocked. This Las Vegas offense has quietly been playing well over the last month. In their last 4 games, they have scored on 45% of their possessions, which is the 3rd best mark in the league over that span. Carr is really playing well right now. In their 3-game win streak leading up to this game, he's thrown for 284 ypg, averaging just over 8.0 yards/attempt. 

He'll be facing a Rams defense that has given up at least 26 points in each of their last 4 games. One that is without what many consider to be the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald. They also don't have their second best defensive lineman in A'Shawn Robinson. I don't see how they slow down Josh Jacobs in this game. If they can't, that should only open up things more for Carr thru the air. 

It's not as promising when you look at the Rams offense, which is why I think we are getting such great value with this total. As hard as it is to believe, Baker Mayfield may actually start this game after being with the team for just a couple of days. I know Mayfield has been awful, but it's not like this is some massive drop off in talent from John Wolford or Bryce Perkins. I'll put some faith in McVay figuring out something that gives Mayfield a chance in this game. 

This is not a great Raiders defense and it's one that has struggled to take down the opposing quarterback. Las Vegas' 21 sacks is the 28th worst mark in the league. That's a big plus for Mayfield's chances. All we need here is a 27-17 type of game. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New Orleans Saints +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Saints as a 3.5-point road dog against the Buccaneers. I just feel like 3.5 is too many points to pass up in a matchup that doesn't figure to see a ton of offense. The biggest thing for me is I just don't trust this Tampa Bay offense to get this thing turned around. The offensive line has been a major problem for the Bucs this season and it suffered a massive blow in last week's loss to the Browns, losing starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs 3-4 weeks to an ankle injury. 

That combined with Tampa Bay's inability to run the football, really puts them behind the 8-ball against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the Top 10 in the NFL against the pass and is T-10th in sacks with 33. 

You also got to look at how much Brady and this Bucs offense has struggled against this Saints defense even in previous years when they were putting up big numbers on the offensive side of the ball. 

Tampa Bay won the previous meeting 20-10, but keep in mind that game was 3-3 midway thru the 4th quarter before Jameis Winston threw an interception on 3 consecutive drives. 

New Orleans is 20-8 ATS last 28 on the road when revenging a same season loss and 17-5 ATS last 22 when revenging a road loss where they score 14 or fewer points. Give me the Saints +3.5! 

10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Pittsburgh Steelers +1

I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a slim 1-point road dog against the Falcons. I don't understand the lack of respect for Pittsburgh and why more people aren't betting them against what I think is a very overrated Falcons team. 

The Steelers are coming in off an impressive 24-17 road win over the Colts and have been playing much better over the last month than they were early on. I get they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games, but the 3 losses have come against the Dolphins, Eagles and Bengals with both games against Miami and Philly on the road. 

This couldn't be a better matchup for them defensively, as they are very physical upfront and aren't going to just let teams run it down their throat. Running the football is really all this Atlanta offense can do. The Falcons are averaging a mere 155 passing yards/game for the season. Not only do they not put up numbers, but they don't have the weapons to even threaten this Steelers defense thru the air. 

I also think this Falcons team is overvalued from their ridiculous ATS run to start the year. Atlanta started out the season a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games. They are also just 2-4 SU over their last 6 and the two wins are a 3-point win at home over the Panthers and a 3-point win at home against the Bears. Give me the Steelers +1! 

10* Thurs. Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Bills/Patriots OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Thursday's AFC East showdown between the Bills and Patriots. I just feel the total here should be closer to 48. I know this is a division matchup, but I see both offenses putting up points. 

It felt like Allen figured out this New England defense last year. He had 33 points and 428 total yards in the first meeting and then came back in the next matchup and put up 47 points and 482 total yards. 

Yes, Allen has not played at the MVP level we expect from him in his last few games. I do think he's dealing with some kind of injury to that elbow. However, this offense is far from broken. Bills are averaging 29.7 ppg, 414.7 ypg and 6.2 yards/play over their last 3 games. 

I'm also not convinced this Patriots defense is as good as what people think. Prior to giving up 33 points and 358 yards to the Vikings, the Patriots previous 7 games came against the following quarterbacks. Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff (without Amon St. Brown). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 27 on them with over 400 yards of offense and Lamar Jackson guided Baltimore to 37 points. This team has simply not played great defensively against top tier quarterbacks. 

As for the Pats offense, I definitely feel like it's got better as the season has went along. Mac Jones seems a lot more comfortable than he did a few weeks ago. I also think this Bills defense is hurting and is going to really miss Von Miller. Miller was a game wrecker for this defense. He led the team with 8.5 sacks. The next best is Greg Rosseau with 5 (only two other guys have 2 or more). Bad quarterbacks can look good when there's no pressure. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR: Cincinnati Bengals -1

I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Titans. You would expect Tennessee to be favored in this one, given the Titans are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over their last 8 games. The betting public has caught on to this team and now everyone is looking to play Tennessee in this matchup. 

It's a big reason why I'm loading up on the Bengals. The books know what they are doing with this line and this is a Cincinnati team that has been really good since that 0-2 start. Bengals are 6-2 in their last 8 games, covering the spread in 7 of those. This is also a Bengals team that is dangerously close to having the best record in the AFC, as 3 of their 4 losses have come by a field goal or less. 

Their only real bad loss all season was that 13-32 loss at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that was their first game without Jamar Chase and the offense just looked lost. They put up 42 the following week against the Panther sand then 37 last week against a really good Pittsburgh defense that recently got T.J. Watt. 

It's unfortunate Joe Mixon won't be able to play in this game for Cincinnati, but all signs point to the Bengals getting back Chase. Either way, I like Burrow to carve up this soft Titans secondary. I also think it's a good matchup for the Cincinnati defense, as they aren't terrible against the run and without the run game working in full force, this Tennessee offense doesn't have a lot to offer. Give me the Bengals -1! 

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots +3

I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 3-point road dog against the Vikings. I played against Minnesota last week in their 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and I'm going to play against them against New England for a lot of the same reasons. I just don't think the Vikings are that great of a football team. 

Prior to their loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings had won 7 straight games and probably should have lost at least 3 of those, given all 7 of those were decided by one score and several of which they had to rally late for the win. 

They haven't really been great on either side of the ball. They come in averaging 22.9 ppg and 338 ypg, which is basically what their opponents give up on average (22.3 ppg and 338 ypg). Defensively they are giving up 389 ypg and 6.2 yards/play vs teams that on average only put up 358 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. 

I really have concerns with their offense against a stingy Pats defense. New England doesn't give up much of anything on the ground. The only team to rush for more than 78 yards against them in their last 5 games is the Bears and almost all of that was Justin Fields. As for the passing game, you know Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Justin Jefferson out of the picture. 

Lastly, you simply can't ignore how bad Kirk Cousins has been in prime time games. I just don't think the Vikings can win without him being great, because I think this New England offense will have no problem moving the ball against what I think is a pretty bad Minnesota defense. Give me the Patriots +3! 

10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Cowboys -1

I'll take my chances with the Cowboys as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Vikings. This line really says it all. Minnesota is sitting at 8-1, riding a 7-game win streak and fresh off a win over the Bills and yet are a home dog to a Cowboys team that is coming off an ugly loss to the Packers. This line is begging you to take Minnesota, which is why we are doing exactly the opposite and laying it big on Dallas. 

I get all wins count the same in the NFL, but there's not a luckier team thru the first 10 weeks of the season than the Vikings. Minnesota could just as easily be coming into this game with a losing record, as there are at least a handful of games that could of went the other way. Just in their last two games they have trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. 

It's not just the fluke wins and the line that has me betting against the Vikings. I also think this is a brutal spot for Minnesota coming off of that massive and unthinkable OT win over the Bills. It's just not easy bouncing back from an emotional victory like that and on the other side you have a Cowboys team that has to be chomping at the bit after how they blew that game last week against Green Bay. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Dallas ended up winning this game going away. Give me the Cowboys -1! 

10* NFL Titans/Packers TNF VEGAS INSIDER: Tennessee Titans +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 3.5-point road dog against the Packers on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 11. I'm just not ready to buy Green Bay as a team that has figured it out. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Packers 31-28 OT win over the Cowboys in Week 10.

Great win, but let's not forget the Packers trailed 14-28 in the 4th quarter of that game. They also had just 186 total yards with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Yes, rookie wide out Christian Watson had a bit of a breakout game with 3 TD catches, but he only caught 4 passes the entire game. 

This is still a Packers offense that needs to be able to run the football to have success and the Titans aren't exactly the defense you want to try and run against. Tennessee is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 85.1 yards/game and 3.9 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, we all know the Titans offense goes with Derrick Henry and this is not a great Packers run D. Green Bay is 26th in the NFL giving up 140.6 rush yards/game. 

This is also a Tennessee team that seems to play their best in big games like this. We saw it a couple weeks ago in there near upset of the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Titans are also an incredible 20-7 ATS as a dog of 3 or more since he became their head coach. Give me Tennessee +3.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Lions/Bears OVER 48.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFC North showdown between the Lions and Bears. Chicago might be my favorite OVER team in the league right now. Justin Fields and the Bears offense has completely done a 180 from the start of the year. In their last 3 games Chicago is averaging 31.3 ppg and 376.3 ypg. 

This is an ideal matchup for the Bears offense, which is built around their running game, most notabely the running ability of Fields. Lions defense is not very good. Don't be fooled by them playing well last week against a bad Packers offense. Detroit is giving up 4.9 rush yards/play and 147 rushing yards/game on the season. 

While the Bears offense has turned into a bit of a juggernaut, the defense has become one of the worst. The trades of Quinn and Smith really hit hard and this defense has shown no ability to get off the field of late. Their defense is giving up 32.7 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 6.9 yards/play in their last 3 games. Not even some less than ideal conditions in Chicago are going to keep these two teams from putting up 50+ points. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

10* NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Buccaneers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Rams. I just feel like this is the ultimate buy-low spot on Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tampa Bay has went from a team the public would bet blindly no matter what the spread was, to a team they want absolutely nothing to do with. Hard to blame them, given the Bucs are a dismal 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Maybe I'm stepping in it with Brady and the Bucs on Sunday, but to me there's so much value here with Tampa Bay. While some teams might be already looking to next year after a 3-5, everything is still right in front of the Bucs, as they have lucked out with how bad the other 3 teams in the NFC South are. The Falcons currently lead this division with a 4-4 record and I don't see Atlanta being the team on top when it's all said and done. 

I'm not sure Brady and the Bucs offense are going to ever end up developing into the juggernaut we saw his first two years with Tampa Bay, but this is not a game or spread where I think the offense has to be great for them to cover. 

The Rams have been just as disappointing as the Bucs in terms of how their offense has performed vs expectations. LA comes into this game averaging just 16.9 ppg and 297 yards/game which is noticeably worse than the 18.3 ppg and 333 ypg the Bucs are averaging. 

The only real offensive weapon the Rams have had is wide out Cooper Kupp, but he injured his ankle on the final play in last week's loss to the 49ers. It does appear that Kupp is going to try to give it a go, but I can't imagine he's going to be anywhere close to 100% and if he's not dominating, I just don't know where the offense comes from. It's now or never for the Bucs and I believe they get the job done. Give me Tampa Bay -2.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Vikings/Commanders OVER 43.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Vikings and Commanders on Sunday. This to me is way too low a total for this matchup. I get Washington's offense hasn't been able to do much of late, scoring 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Thing is, those low offensive outputs have come against some pretty good defensive teams in the Colts, Packers, Titans, Cowboys and Eagles. Note that while they did only score 17 vs Tennessee, they had 342 passing yards in that game. 

Minnesota comes into this game at 6-1, but their early season success has all been a result of their high-powered offense. Not their defense. The Vikings come into this game scoring 24.7 ppg and have scored at least 23 points in all but one game (vs the Eagles). Their defense is not very good, giving up 383 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They are especially bad vs the pass, as opposing QBs are completing 68.9% of their attempts against them. 

Simply put, this is a game where I think both offenses will be able to move the football and put points on the scoreboard. I like both of these teams to at the very minimum eclipse the 20-point mark and that should be more than enough to push us past this low total. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Houston Texans +13.5

I'll take my chances with the Texans as a 13.5-point home dog against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. As difficult as it may be to back Houston in this game, I just feel like there's too much value to pass up. As good as the Eagles are, it's not easy going on the road and playing up to your true potential in a Thursday game. 

The other big concern I have with Philly is the mindstate of this team coming in. It's been a bit of a cakewalk for the Eagles so far in 2022. They are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers and facing what many feel is the worst team in the league. It's going to be hard for them to take the Texans seriously and for as bad as Houston has been, they have shown they can be competitive. Only game they have lost by more than the number here is a few weeks back against the Raiders and that was a 20-20 game at the half. 

Road favorites who are outscoring teams by 10+ points/game and off a win by 10 or more points have gone a mere 17-46 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Underdogs who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and facing an opponent that has covered 3 of their last 4 are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Texans +13.5! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Browns +3.5

I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 3.5-point home dog against the Bengals. Hard to not like a division home dog in prime time, especially one that I think is fairly evenly matched. The Browns are just 2-5, but could very easily have a winning record. They had that crazy loss to the Jets in Week 2 and then 3 of their other 4 losses have all come by a field goal or less. 

The Bengals have got things going after their 0-2 start, but now Joe Burrow is down his biggest weapon in wide out Ja'Maar Chase. Not that the Bengals don't have other quality receivers, Chase is in a different class. He's Burrow's go to guy when things get bad. Chase has 16 more catches, 150 more yards and 3 more TDs than the next best guy. 

On the flip side, I like the Browns to be able to run the ball against this Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is giving up 119 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry on the ground. Which spikes to 142 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Browns average 164 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. 

I just think there's way too much value here with Cleveland catching more than a field goal. Give me the Browns +3.5! 

10* NFL NFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +4

I'll gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4-point road dog against division rival Atlanta on Sunday. Just about everyone, including myself, had written this Panthers team off. I thought after firing head coach Matt Rhule and benching Baker Mayfield we were going to see a different team and they came out that first game under interim head coach Steve Wilks and lost 10-24 at the Rams, totaling just 203 yards of total offense. 

Who would have thought trading away wide out Robby Anderson and star running back Christian McCaffrey would be the spark this team needed, but they delivered in a big way without those two, beating the Bucs 21-3 as a 13-point dog last Sunday. 

The first game without McCaffrey and they rushed for a season-high 173 yards. PJ Walker was also an efficient 16 of 22 passing. It certainly seemed to give life to a Panthers' defense that was playing extremely well early on while the offense struggled. 

I like that defense to not only carry them to cover but an outright win against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense has not been the same since losing Cordarrelle Patterson. He's missed the last 3 games and still leads the team with 340 rushing yards. 

I also think people got so caught it up in Atlanta covering the spread, they ignored how bad this Falcons offense has been. Marcus Mariota has thrown for 462 yards in his last 4 games combined. He had a mere 107 passing yards in a blowout loss last week to the Bengals and 75 of those yards came on one pass play. Give me the Panthers +4! 

10* NFL NFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots -2.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Jets. A lot of people might be left scratching their head to why New England is favored in this game. The Pats are coming off a 14-33 loss at home to the Bears as a 8.5-point favorite, while New York has won and covered each of their last 4 games. 

I might be dead wrong here and the Jets will find a way to win this game, but I think this is the perfect time to sell-high on New York. During the Jets 4-game win streak they have beat a broken Denver team without starting quarterback Russell Wilson, a broken Packers team, a Dolphins team that was down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson and a Steelers team that isn't very good. Their only other win is that crazy comeback in the final minutes vs the Browns in Week 2. 

Not only do I think the Jets are being overvalued coming into this game, they also have to try and figure out how to keep their offensive afloat after losing stud rookie running back Breece Hall, who had rushed for 463 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 4 TDs. Hall also had 218 yards receiving. 

I know they traded for James Robinson, but I'm not buying he's going to make a huge impact in his first game. Keep in mind this is a Jets' offense that has been all run of late. New York has just 391 total passing yards in their last 3 games combined. 

All of that and the Jets are having to go up against what I going to be a pissed off Patriots defense that was just embarrassed on their home field in prime time on Monday Night Football. I will be shocked if this game is even remotely close. Give me the Pats -2.5!