9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Kings/76ers OVER 228.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228.5 in Tuesday's matchup that has the Kings visiting the 76ers. Philadelphia has exploded offensively over the last week behind the incredible play of Joel Embiid, who is averaging a ridiculous 41.3 ppg over the first 4 games he's played in December. The 76ers have scored 123 or more in each of their last 3 games. All 3 of those games seeing a combined score of 144 or more points. 

I'm expecting another big night offensively from Embiid and the 76ers against a sub-par Kings defense. Sacramento is also playing their 4th straight on the road, so I don't expect a big effort defensively in this one. 

As for the Kings offense, I think it's poised for a big bounce back effort after scoring just 99 points on 39.8% shooting in their last game. It was the first time this season the high-powered Sacramento offense was held under 100 points. There's also a good chance the Kings get back star point guard De'Aaron Fox, who was back at practice Monday after missing the last two games. 

OVER is 31-19 in the Kings last 50 games in the last 2 seasons after going UNDER the total in their previous game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 this season when the 76ers are well-rested, playing 6 or less games in a 14 day stretch. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. 

I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. 

UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 225

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 225 in Tuesday's TNT matchup between the Nuggets and Mavs. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams in less than 3 weeks, so there's plenty of familiarity between the two. These are also two of the slowest teams in the NBA. Dallas is tied with the Mavs for dead last in the league in pace, averaging just 98.1 possessions per game. The Nuggets are 24th at just 100.4. 

The Mavs figure to especially look to slow this game down, as they will be playing on no rest after last night's 130-111 win over the Suns. We have also seen the UNDER cash in 6 of the Nuggets 8 home games this season. We should also see a strong effort defensively from both teams with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. Give me the UNDER 225! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Bulls/Suns OVER 223.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 223.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and Suns. I think the total here should be closer to 230. In the two meetings between these two teams last year they saw combined scores of 231 and 251. Chicago comes into this game playing well offensively, averaging 115.8 ppg over their last 5 and that's with the last 3 coming on the road and one of the other games at home against the Celtics. Suns have allowed over 50% shooting from the field in each of their last 2 games. Phoenix is scoring 116.2 ppg at home on 48% shooting and should be able to take advantage of a Chicago defense that struggles to defend the 3. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bucks/Knicks OVER 228

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Bucks. The books have really had a hard time setting the totals high enough in Knicks' home games this season. The OVER is 7-2 in New York's 9 home games and it's easy to see why. The Knicks are scoring 122.7 ppg on 48% shooting and giving up 122.2 ppg on 48% shooting. I don't think Milwaukee will have any problem taking advantage of that soft Knicks defense, especially with New York playing on no rest after last night's 140-110 win at Detroit. Bucks are a good defensive team, but have been slipping on that side of late, giving up 111.2 ppg on 48% shooting in their last 5. Give me the OVER 228! 

10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. 

Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. 

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. 

These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Under 226

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 226 in Thursday's game between the Pelicans and Blazers. These have to be two tired teams going into this matchup. Both teams will be on no rest after playing last night and both teams are playing their 5th game in 7 days. Both also had to travel to Portland for this matchup, with New Orleans ending a 3-game road trip in Chicago last night and the Blazers continuing on their 6-game road trip, which doesn't end until Saturday's game in Dallas. 

Portland is also an UNDER team, as they come into this game T-26th in Pace and T-7th in defensive efficiency. UNDER has gone 5-1 in the Blazers 6 road games this season, 3-1 when playing a team with a winning record and 3-1 vs high-scoring teams like the Pelicans who are averaging 116+ points/game. Give me the UNDER 226! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Nets/Mavs OVER 225

I'll take my chances with the OVER 225 in Thursday's matchup between the Nets and Mavs. Given what we have seen out of Dallas offensively and the struggles Brooklyn is having on the defensive end I'm shocked this total isn't the 230s. 

The Mavs ranked No. 1 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions. They will be up against a Brooklyn defense that is 26th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions. The only other team Dallas has faced in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency is the Grizzlies who are 29th at 116.6. The Mavs put up 137 points on Memphis. On top of all that, you have to wonder just how much juice the Brooklyn defense will have playing in the second leg of a back-to-back after an even bigger game last night at Milwaukee. 

I know the Mavs defense has played well, but I think it can be difficult to bring that energy defensively when you are scoring at such an easy clip on the other side. Brooklyn also has two of the best scorers in the game in Durant and Irving. If the Nets simply hit their season average of 110.0 ppg, I think this game flies by the number. Give me the OVER 225! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224

I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! 

9* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Pelicans/Jazz OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Jazz. New Orleans has been one of the best offensive teams in the early going. The Pelicans are No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, trailing only the Celtics. They are also No. 7 in the NBA in pace of play. This is not a huge surprise given they added the likes of Zion Williamson. The big surprise is what we have seen out of Utah in two games. The Jazz were expected to be in full on tank mode this season, yet they have come out and won their first two games, scoring 123 at home against the Nuggets and 132 on the road against the T-Wolves. Utah is No. 4 in the NBA in offensive efficiency and No. 13 in pace of play. Look for both teams to hit the 120 mark in this one. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Wizards/Pacers UNDER 228

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 228 in Wednesday's season opener between the Wizards and Pacers. I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated total here, as people remember how bad this Indiana team was defensively to close out last year. The big reason for that was the loss of their best defensive player, Myles Turner. Having him back instantly makes them better on that side of the ball. As for the Wizards, they got some nice offensive pieces, but being better defensively is a huge priority for this team under head coach Wes Unseld Jr. The defensive numbers weren't great in Unseld's first year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Look for this one to stay under the mark. Give me the UNDER 2228.5!

9* NBA - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER: 76ers/Celtics OVER 216

I don't think the total is near enough for this opening night matchup between the Celtics and 76ers. I'll gladly take my chances with these two going over 216. I just think after watching Boston make a run to the NBA Finals last year on the coattails of their defense, their defense is a bit overvalued coming into the 2022-23 season. That's because they are missing big man Robert Williams, who is the guy that made their defense so good. His ability to protect the rim, allowed the other guys to really close out aggressively on the 3-point shot. 

Not only are they missing him, but they are facing one of the most skilled big men in the league in Joel Embiid. I don't think Boston will have an answer for him. I also think James Harden could be in for a big bounce back season. Harden looks to be in the best shape he's been in years. Philly has two other guys who can light it up in Maxey and Harris. This should be one of the best offenses in the league. 

There's rumors that Boston will be looking to push the pace a little more and it's not like they don't have the guys who can excel in transition. They got two elite scorers in Tatum and Brown. I also think the addition of Brogdon will help the offense. I don't think Philly is a team they want to attack in the half court. Look for this to easily get into the 220s. Give me the OVER 216! 

Heat/Celtics Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 201.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 201.5 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. With Jimmy Butler on one leg, Tyler Herro out with a hamstring injury and Kyle Lowry playing at less than 100%, the Heat just don't have the offensive fire-power to score 100 points against one of the best defenses in the NBA. Miami scored just 82 points in Game 4 at Boston and 80 in Game 5 at home. 

I have a hard time seeing the Heat going off on the road in Game 6. With that said, Miami is not going to lay down. The Heat are going to do whatever they can to be competitive and there only way of being competitive is to make this game as ugly as possible and hope the Celtics miss some shots. Even so, Boston shot a solid 47% from the field in Game 5 and still only managed to score 93 points. Getting to 100 figures to be a struggle for both teams tonight. Give me the UNDER 201.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. 

We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. 

Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. 

The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 212) 

We just keep playing the UNDER in the Bucks playoff games and will continue to do so as long as the books keep giving us this value. The UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoffs games (5-0 in Bulls series and now 3-0 in this series). 

I've said it multiple times playing the UNDER in this series that I just think these two teams are so good defensively that it's going to be a struggle for them to get to 100 points. We have seen each team fail to score 90 in a game this series. We also saw a mere 195 points scored in Game 2 with both teams shooting close to 47% from the field. Give me the UNDER 212! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. 

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 207.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 2 between the Heat and 76ers. We played and won on the UNDER at 209 in Game 1. That game ended with Miami winning 106-92. It was almost like Miami flipped a switch in the 2nd half, as they went from being down 50-51 to winning by 14. 76ers only managed 41 points in the 2nd half. I don't think it's going to get any easier for them offensively now that Miami knows what they want to do without Embiid. 

Philly isn't going to just lie down because they don't have Embiid. They will fight and I think they are good enough defensively to keep the Heat's offense in check, especially with Miami having to play another game without point guard Kyle Lowry. I just think it will once again be a struggle for both of these teams to get to 100. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. 

Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. 

Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) 

I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.

That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.

Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! 

Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 229 in Game 6 between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 games in the series. As good as these two offenses are, a lot has to go right for a playoff game to get into the 230s, especially this late in a series when the teams know all the offensive sets the other team wants to run. Strictly a value play for me. Give me the UNDER 229! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 236) 

We saw both play-in games last night go UNDER the total. The Clippers/Wolves only combined for 213 with a total of 231. The Nets/Cavs did come close with 223 and a total of 227, but that was with a 65-point 4th quarter. 

That's just a prime example of how much better the defense gets in the postseason. That was with neither of those teams being eliminated with a loss. Tonight it's win or go home for these 9/10 matchups. 

As good as these two offenses are and how both can struggle defensively at times, the total shouldn't be in the high 230s! Give me the UNDER 236! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 212.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 212.5 in Wednesday's non-conference matchup between the Mavs and Cavs. I think it's going to be tough for Cleveland to stop the Mavs with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The defense has not been good since Allen went out and now they are really behind the 8-ball on that side of the ball with Mobley out. 

As for the Mavs, I don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to be anywhere close to their best on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas hosted the Jazz on Sunday and then hosted the Lakers last night. Mavs are also sitting good in the standings, at 4th place in the West, 2 games in front of the Jazz and Nuggets. Easy spot for them to just go through the motions defensively. Give me the OVER 212.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 232) 

I love the UNDER 232 in Tuesday's Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This feels like a game where both of these teams are going to bring it. Both of these teams think they are the team to beat in the East and both are just 1-game back of the Heat for the No. 1 seed. 

You also got both of these teams not just coming off a loss, but coming off a game where they didn't play well. Milwaukee got steamrolled by 25 at Memphis on Saturday and the 76ers lost by 10 at Phoenix. 

UNDER is 5-0 in Philly's last 5 as a home favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 at home with a total of 22 or more. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 off 2 days of rest, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the UNDER 232! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 211.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 211.5 between the Warriors and Heat. Golden State has not played great without Steph Curry and Draymond called out their lackluster play after the most recent loss at Orlando. I think we get a pretty big effort here from the Warriors against a top tier team like Miami. 

Key here is Golden State has to really rely on their defense without Curry. They have scored 88, 108 and 90 in their last 3 games. It won't be any easier against a very good Miami defense. I just don't see enough offense from the Warriors to get this into the 210s. Give me the UNDER 211.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 215.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215.5 in Monday's big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and 76ers. It not going to be playoff intensity, but I expect both teams to really be up for this game. This is Philly's last crack at catching the Heat for the No. 1 seed, as they are 3.5-back with just 11 games left for both teams.

Miami still has to hold of the Bucks, but would pretty much secure the No. 2 with a win. I also think there's also a little more incentive for the Heat with this being their first crack at Philly since they added James Harden. 

I just see this being a defensive game. Both these teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace and are very strong defensively. They have played 3 times this season and the most they have combined for is 207 with 2 games failing to reach 200. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 between the Hawks and Pelicans. I think we are getting a good number here due to Ingram being out for New Orleans and it looking like Trae Young could sit for the Hawks. 

New Orleans' offense has been just fine without Ingram, as they got McCollum to shoulder the load. Atlanta jus scored 120 without Young against the Grizzlies. 

You also got two teams who aren't exactly playing a ton of defense. Pelicans are allowing teams to shot 50% from the field over their last 5 and the Hawks are right there with them, giving up 49%. Look for a lot of offense in this one. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 216.5)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 216.5 in Friday's game between the Cavs and 76ers. Philadelphia was a good offensive team before they traded for James Harden. With him, they have taken their offense to a whole different level. In the 3 games with Harden Philly has scored 133, 125 and 123 points respectively. All 3 of those games have ween over the total. 

Cleveland's defense has been one of their strengths this season, but they aren't defending well since the break. They just gave up 119 at home to the Hornets and the game prior to that they allowed 127 to the Timberwolves at home. 

I just don't see Cleveland being able to hold this explosive 76ers offense under 120 points and at the same time you got to like the Cavs being able to score at least 100. The total should not be less than 220. Give me the OVER 216.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 236.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number with the OVER 236.5 in Sunday's NBA game between the Pacers and Timberwolves. The OVER has been a money-maker of late in Minnesota games, cashing in 15 of their last 18 games. In 5 of their last 6 games they have seen a combined score in the 140s with the only exception coming against an awful Pistons team and even that game saw a respectable 123 points. 

Indiana is a complete mess on the defensive end as they are adjusting to a slew of new players and continue to play without some of their key pieces. Pacers are giving up 118.4 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5. 

Key here is the Pacers should be able to keep pace for the most part with Minnesota's offense, especially playing at home. Indiana has some guys who can score the ball and the Timberwolves are giving up 117.1 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 120.4 ppg over their last 5. Give me the OVER 236.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 214.5) 

I really like the OVER 214.5 in Thursday's game between Los Angeles and Dallas. The Clippers have shown no interest in getting stops of late. LA gave up 137 at home to the Bucks on Sunday and then turned around and gave up 135 at Memphis on Tuesday. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field, with 3 of the last 4 eclipsing 51%. No surprise the OVER 7-1-1 in their last 4 games. 

I don't see that defense flipping a switch against a good Mavs team, especially with how well Luka Doncic is playing right now. Doncic is averaging 31.0 ppg, 11.8 apg and 9.0 rpg in 4 games this month. 

Dallas does have a good defense, but LA's not been held under 100 points since scoring 94 against the Spurs way back on Jan. 15. I think as long as the Clippers can get to the century mark, this think will easily go over the number. Give me the OVER 214.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 227)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 227 in Tuesday's matchup between the Clippers and Grizzlies. I see this thing easily getting to 230. Memphis has scored 118 or more points in each of their last 6 games. Grizzlies figures to look to really push the pace in this one, as they will have fresh legs, playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

As for the Clippers, they have scored 110+ points in 7 straight games and the recent addition of Norman Powell only bolsters their offense. Powell scored 28 points in just 24 minutes in his debut with LA after being acquired in a trade with Portland. 

You also have to look at what the Clippers have been doing defensively here of late. LA's really struggled on that side of the ball, giving up 120+ in 3 of their last 5. Memphis is also no juggernaut defensively. Give me the OVER 227! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 224.5) 

This is an easy play on the UNDER at 224.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah is dealing with some serious injury problems right now. Already without arguably their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Jazz just lost their top reserve, Joe Ingles, to a season-ending injury. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable with a back injury. 

As for the Nuggets, they don't figure to be looking to push the pace in this one. Denver has to be running on fumes, as they will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Minnesota. It's also their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 228.5) 

I really like the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Bulls and Blazers. I think this game easily gets into the 230's. Both of these teams come into this game really feeling good about themselves offensively. In Portland's last two games they have shot 51.2% against the Mavs and 56.8% against the Rockets. Similar story for the Bulls, who have shot 54.8% against the Raptors and 52.3% against the Spurs in their last two. 

Both teams are also not at full strength defensively. Chicago is without two of their best perimeter defenders in Ball and Caruso, while the Blazers recently loss one of their better defenders in Nassir Little. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5) 

I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Blazers and Rockets. I've been backing Portland quite a bit of late, but just don't like the spot here with this being the Blazers 4th game in 6 days and Houston playing on a full 2 days of rest. 

I think this has a good chance to be the highest scoring game of the night. Portland's defense has taken a huge hit with the loss of Nassir Little and one of their other better defenders, Robert Covington, is questionable with a knee injury. Add in the tough scheduling spot and I just don't see the Blazers having much to give on the defensive side. 

Good news for the Blazers offense is the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. That combined with Houston playing at the fastest pace in the NBA this year, makes them a great OVER team when it's a plus matchup for their offense. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

50* (NBA) - TNT Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 215) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 215 between the Pacers and Warriors in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. I just the market is low right now on this Golden State offense. The Warriors haven't exactly been lighting it up, as they have eclipsed 108 points just once in their 8 games and failed to even reach 100 in 5 of those games. 

It's not so much execution as it is they just haven't shot well. Golden State has shot worse than 43% from the field in 7 of their last 8. Some of that likely has to do with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road. 

They only finished with 102 in their last game at home against Detroit, but they had 66 in the 1st half (scored 17 in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th). A lot of that is the game was over at the at half (GS led 66-38). 

I think the offense could be in store for a big game here against a injury plagued and tired Pacers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on no rest after a thrilling 111-104 comeback win against the Lakers. 

Note that Malcolm Brogdon has been on a minute restriction coming back from an achilles injury, so it's no guarantee he plays on the second of a back-to-back. Big man Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle. He finished the game, but head coach Rick Carlisle said it was "probably going to be significant." I just don't see a lot of defense being played for a Pacers team that hasn't been great on that side of the ball anyway. Give me the OVER 215

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 215) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215 in Friday's ESPN matchup between the Grizzlies and Mavericks. The UNDER has cashed in 7 of the last 8 games for Dallas. The 7 games that went UNDER the total all saw 212 or fewer points scored. The only exception came against the Rockets. 

Not only is Dallas defending well during this stretch, they like to slow the game down. While Memphis has been clicking offensively, I don't think they will mind the slower pace tonight. Grizzlies will be playing on no rest after hosting the T-Wolves last night. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

Memphis is also a much better defensive team than people realize. Grizzlies rank 6th in the league in defensive efficiency. They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 43.5% or worse from the field. Give me the UNDER 215! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 220.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 220.5 in tonight's matchup between the Clippers and Suns. I think with Phoenix forced to play small with Ayton and McGree, they are playing with a little more pace. They just finished up their two game road trip scoring 133 on 51% shooting at Charlotte and 123 on 54% shooting at New Orleans. 

I got to think with this being a big game on TNT (these games get a lot more hype now that there's no football on Thursday nights), the Suns are going to want to put on a show. 

The other big thing is the Clippers aren't exactly locking teams down on the defensive side of the ball. They have given up 116 points or more in each of their last 3 and teams are averaging a healthy 96.8 possessions per game in their last 4. 

Clippers are also fairing better offensively here of late than you might think with Paul George sidelined. LA has shot 49% or better in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 220.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 216.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 216.5 in tonight's non-conference game between the Heat and Blazers. There's a lot of big names that won't be on the floor for both teams, which has created the value with the total. 

Portland's been without Lillard and McCollum for a few games now. While the offensive numbers aren't all that great, it's the defense that has caught my attention. The Blazers are giving up 126.6 ppg on 54.5% shooting over their last 5 games. 

Miami is a team that is known for playing good defense, but they aren't locking teams down right now with all the guys out. Heat have allowed 110 or more in each of their last 4. This is also a big flat spot for Miami who was at Golden State on Monday and next up after this game is a showdown at Phoenix with the Suns on Saturday. Give me the OVER 216.5! 

40* (NBA) - Christmas Day Total DESTROYER (Under 228.5) 

I was shocked to see the total for the Suns/Warriors game on Christmas Day pushing 230. These two teams have already played twice this year and neither one was all that high scoring. The Suns won 104-96 at home in the first meeting and Golden State responded with a 118-96 win in the rematch. 

Not only will the familiarity help keep the scoring down, but we almost always get these huge defensive efforts in these Christmas games, which leads to a lot of UNDERs cashing at the ticket window. I just don't see this game getting into the 220s. Give me the UNDER 228.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 211.5) 

This game will look like an exhibition game with all the guys that won't play for both teams. The biggest story here being what the Nets will have to work with. Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Bembry, Bruce Brown, Paul Milsap, Joe Harris and James Johnson are all out. Kyrie also won't play with it being a home game and Nicolas Claxton is questionable. 

It's not much better for the Magic, who have 11 guys ruled out and Cole Anthony questionable. I just think there's not going to be enough offensive talent on the floor for this game to get into the 200's and we got a total north of 210. Give me the UNDER 211.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 208) 

I really like the UNDER in tonight's game between the Raptors and Warriors. Golden State will be without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole and Andre Iguodala. Not having Curry on the floor alone is huge for the UNDER. 

Key here is that this Warriors team has shown they will come out to win regardless of who is on the floor and this feels like a game where some of those young guys show out. It's not all good for the Raptors either, as they got a number of guys on the injury report. Give me the UNDER 208! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225) 

I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight. 

Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5. 

It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) 

I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER 225.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Kings and Grizzlies. On the season these aren't exactly UNDER teams, as both of these teams have been putting up a lot of points and giving up a lot at the same time. 

I just think that Memphis' offense is going to take a hit without Ja Morant on the floor. Not only he is he their best player, he's their point guard. He makes everything so much easier for everyone else. 

As for the Kings, I got a hard time seeing them wanting to turn this into a track meet after Friday's 3OT thriller that saw them beat the Lakers 141-137. Note that final score makes it look like it was track meet, but that was far from the case as the two teams ended regulation tied 100-100. Kings' point guard De'Aaron Fox played 53 out of 63 minutes in that game. Haliburton played 47 and Hield played 40. 

I just think this total is priced as if both teams were healthy and in good situational spots. Give me the UNDER 225.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 221.5) 

I love the OVER 221.5 in tonight's big NBA game between the Nets and Warriors. I know the UNDERS have been cashing left and right to start the 2021-22 season, but I actually think it's playing into our favor with this number. 

These are two exceptional offensive teams. The Nets had their struggles early on offense, but that has changed here of late and a big reason for that is James Harden is finally starting to play up to his potential. As for the Warriors, they have been a force offensively, averaging 115.1 ppg. I think both teams could get into the 120's, but we really just need something like a 115-110 final to cash this easy. Give me the OVER 221.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 227) 

I just can't help myself but to take the OVER 227 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Grizzlies and Hornets. While these two teams don't exactly fly up and down the court, we have two of the top offenses facing off against two of the worst defenses. 

Charlotte is 8th in offensive efficiency and Memphis isn't too far back at 12th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 29th (just barely ahead of the Pelicans) in defensive efficiency and Memphis is 28th. 

I just think with how bad these two teams are defensively it's going to lead to a little faster pace, as both offenses won't have to work hard to get an open look. As long as don't have one of these teams go ice cold, this should easily get into the 230s. Give me the OVER 227! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 221.5) 

I really like the UNDER 221.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Hornets and Cavs. I have a really hard time seeing these two teams score into the 220's. 

The Cavs are an ideal UNDER team. They are awful offensively, don't like to play with much tempo (T-24th in pace) and are a top half of the league defensive team. UNDER has cashed in each of the Cavs' last 5 games. 

The reason the total is high, is the Hornets are an OVER team. They score 118.6 ppg and give up 115.3 ppg. 

Aside from Cleveland doing whatever they can to slow the pace down, I think we could see Charlotte play a little slower than what we would normally see. Hornets are going to be on no rest after hosting the Blazers yesterday and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 221.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 223.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 223.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Pacers visiting the Nets. It's hard to not like the Pacers a a big dog given what we have seen out of this Brooklyn team so far, but I just can't get there with Indiana with the injury to Malcolm Brogdon. 

The Pacers have already been without two starters to start the season in T.J. Warren and Caris LaVert, which I think makes losing Brogdon, by far one of their best players, that much bigger of a blow. Brogdon leads the team in scoring (23.4 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) and is second in rebound (7.0 rpg). I just wonder if the Pacers will be able to get into any kind of rhythm offensively without him at the point. 

As for the Nets, they are playing no where close to what we thought we would see offensively. Some of that is not having Kyrie Irving, but it's also a lackluster group of role players and James Harden shooting bricks. Harden is averaging just 16.6 ppg on 35.9% shooting. No surprise the UNDER is 5-0 in their 5 games. Give me the UNDER 223.5! 

40* (NBA) Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Over 234) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 234 in tonight's NBA game between the Blazers and Grizzlies. Portland had combined for at least 239 points in each of their first two games before laying a dud in a 86-116 loss at the Clippers on Monday. Memphis has scored at least 118 in all 3 of their games, with all 3 games going over and seeing a combined score of 134 or more. 

Portland leads the NBA in pace of play at 108.1 and Memphis ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Hard to see the Blazers not getting to 120 points in this one. Throw in how well the Grizzlies are playing offensively and this thing could easily get into the 250s. 

OVER is 24-11 in Portland's last 35 after a game that went UNDER and 18-8 in the Grizzlies last 26 as a road dog. Give me the OVER 234! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 229.5) 

The line here screams take the Pacers and I might end up throwing a little on Indiana in this one, but I think the even better value is on the OVER 229.5. 

I think a lot of people expected this Pacers offense to struggle early with starters Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren sidelined. It hasn't. They got 3 guys who are scoring 20+ ppg. Sabonis is at 26.0 ppg, Brogdon is at 24.7 ppg and 1st round rookie Duarte is at 20.3 ppg. They rank in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency. They also are playing fast, as they rank 5th in the NBA in pace. 

They also catch a break in this one, as the Bucks will be without two starters and two of their better defenders in Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday. 

You might be wondering about the Bucks offense without those two guys, but they still got Antetokounmpo and Middleton to carry that offense. I also don't think this Pacers defense is anything special. They just held Miami to 91 in their last game, but that Heat team shot horrific and really looked lost without point guard Kyle Lowry. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

40* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers ESPN Sharp Money INSIDER (Under 223) 

It's a long season and one loss doesn't mean much, but no one wants to start the season poorly. I think there's going to be a sense of urgency for both the Suns and Lakers to play well and avoid starting 0-2 after upset losses in their season openers. LA got 30+ points from LeBron and AD and still lost 114-121 at home to the Warriors. Phoenix lost by double-digits at home 98-110 to the Nuggets. 

You also got to factor in with how big a public team the Lakers are and this being a game that is televised on ESPN, it's going to get a decent amount of traffic. I think these big games can see some inflated totals and this definitely feels high to me. 

The Lakers are simply too old to play a run and gun style for 82 games and adding Westbrook doesn't change that. You also got some chemistry issues with Westbrook trying to carve a role in an offense where he's not going to be the primary ball handler. It wasn't pretty in his debut, as he scored just 8 points with a mere 4 assists and 5 rebounds. 

Suns are also a team that doesn't like to play fast. Phoenix T-26th in pace of play last year and basically brought the same roster back. These are also two teams that ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 223! 

40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 219.5) 

I want to lay the points with Chicago in this one (might put a little on it), but feel the safer bet is on the OVER 219.5. This new look Bulls team is getting some hype coming into the season after adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan to form a pretty good top 4 with returnees Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. They also got a talented youngster in Pat Williams, who I like, and two more additions off the bench in Alex Caruso and Derrick Jones Jr. 

I think they could be even better than people are expecting. With what's going on with Ben Simmons in Philly, there's reason to think this team could be right there fighting for that right to be the 3rd best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bucks and Nets. 

Regardless if they live up to that or not, this is a team that I think will be one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. Few are better in the NBA at igniting the fast break than Ball and LaVine is one of the more electric open court players. I see this team playing a ton in transition and being one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. 

The big concern with Chicago is just how good can this team be defensively? I think it could have some problems, especially early in the year given the lack of chemistry they have playing together. 

Detroit doesn't even figure to be in the running for a playoff spot this year. The Pistons simply put lack talent. They are rebuilding under Cade Cunningham. He's not going to play. I just think people have a hard time seeing the Pistons doing enough offensively to want to take the OVER in this game. 

I just think the total is too low. I think Chicago will be pushing 120 points and don't think this defense on the road is going to hold Detroit under 100. Give me the OVER 219.5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5) 

As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field. 

Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226) 

I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much. 

That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday. 

We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226! 

40* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks VEGAS INSIDER (Over 225.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 225.5 in Game 4 between the 76ers and Hawks. These two flew past the total (224.5) in Game 3, combing for 338 points in Philly's 127-111 win. I just think we are going to see a similar type of game that should easily get to the 230s. 

The size advantage the 76ers have is really making things easy for them offensively. Philadelphia has shot 55%, 53% and 58% from the field in the 3 games. There's only been one playoff game this year where they shot worse than 50%. That's not going to change in this series with all the easy looks they are getting inside. 

Atlanta's only choice is to outscore them and they definitely got the fire-power to do that on their home floor. Hawks have shot 51%, 46% and 48% in the series, so it's not like they aren't getting good looks. They had 111 points in Game 3, despite shooting just 6 of 23 (26%) from behind the 3-point line. Give me the OVER 225.5!

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 222.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 222.5 in Game 3 between the Suns/Nuggets. Usually I lean towards the UNDER the deeper the series goes, but 222.5 just doesn't feel like near enough. These two teams combined for 227 in Game 1 and 221 in Game 2. That's with the Nuggets only scoring 105 and 95. 

Nuggets are scoring 117.9 ppg on their home floor this season. Last time they were home was Game 5 in their first round series with Portland and they put up 147 in a game that saw 287 combined points. Both Game 1 and Game 2 in Denver got to the 230's. 

Key here is that while I think the Nuggets will get a big boost offensively at home, I don't think the Nuggets defense is going to have any better luck trying to slow down this Suns offense. Phoenix really got whatever they wanted. As long as they don't go ice cold, this thing should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5) 

I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two. 

So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98).  Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton. 

I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5! 

40* (NBA) - Mavs/Clippers Game 7 NO-BRAINER (UNDER 212) 

I'm going to take the UNDER 212 in Game 7 between the Mavs and Clippers. UNDERs are always a strong way to look in any Game 7. There's a lot more than just winner takes all that keeps these games lower scoring.

You have to keep in mind these teams have played each other 6 times in a little over a  week now. Both teams know what kind of adjustments the other team is going to make and they know how to defend them. You also got tired legs, which can lead to poor shooting. Lastly, the pressure of a Game 7. 

These two haven't combined for more than 205 in each of the last 3 games in the series. I don't see them breaking that trend in this one. Give me the UNDER 212! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 207.5) 

I like the UNDER 207.5 in Game 6 tonight between the Lakers and Suns. I'm torn on whether or not LA can win this game, but I am pretty confident that it will be low scoring. I think the Lakers are not only desperate facing elimination, but also embarrassed from that ugly loss in Game 5. The level of intensity they are going to have at home with their backs against the wall is going to be really high. 

At the same time, I don't think the Suns are feeling good about things. Sure they like that AD is hurt, but this thing can flip in a hurry if he comes back. Chris Paul knows to not like his team take this game lightly, just because they got a Game 7 at home if needed. I expect Phoenix to be just as motivated here to finish this thing off. I just don't think there's going to be enough pace and shot making to get this to the 210 range. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 219) 

I don't play a ton of OVERs in the NBA playoffs, but the OVER 219 in Wednesday's Jazz/Grizzlies game is one I just can't help myself with. These two combined for 221 in Game 1 and that was with neither team shooting great.

The Jazz were especially off their game, shooting 42.0% from the field and 25.5% from behind the 3-point line. Utah in the regular-season shot 47% from the field and 38.8% from behind the 3-point line at home, where they averaged 117.2 ppg. 

I think the Jazz were sleep walking a bit after the week layoff and it definitely didn't help matters that star player Donovan Mitchell was a late scratch. He's expected to play in Game 2, but either way Utah will be more mentally ready if he can't go. 

I could see the Jazz eclipsing the 220 mark in this one and confident we are going to get enough from Memphis to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 219! 

40* (NBA) - Nets/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229.5) 

I think the UNDER 229.5 is worthy of a play in Game 1 Saturday between the Nets and Celtics. People are just assuming Brooklyn can't be stopped with the Big 3 of Durant, Irving and Harden all healthy. They also see Boston just score 118 in their win over Washington on Tuesday. 

I'm not about to say the Nets won't lethal on offense, but let's not forget they didn't a lot of time together in the regular-season. I also don't trust the Celtics offense without Jaylen Brown. Tatum put up 50 in that game against the Wizards and they still only had 118. 

What I think people are sleeping on is the Nets defense. They got better and better on that side of the ball as the season went on. I also think all 3 of the Big 3 have the ability to take their defense to a different level. They just don't need to play hard on that side of the ball in the regular-season. I think they make it really tough on Tatum and the Boston offense. I just don't think they get to 230. Give me the UNDER 229.5! 

50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Warriors MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 221) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Friday's Play-In matchup for the No. 8 seed between the Warriors and Grizzlies. While we just watched the Wizards/Pacers fly past the total last night, the UNDER has hit in 3 of the 5 play-in games with the only two OVERs coming in games that involved the Pacers. 

The Grizzlies/Spurs matchup on Wednesday went UNDER the total of 225 by 29 points, as the Grizzlies won that game by a final of 100-96. The Warriors/Lakers game stayed UNDER the total of 217 by 14 as LA won 103-100. 

Both of these teams were exceptional on the defensive end, as Memphis held the Spurs to just 35% shooting, while Golden State held the Lakers to 40.7% from the field. If you go back it's nothing new. Grizzlies have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 44% or worse, while the Warriors have held 7 of their last 10 under that mark. These two played late in the regular-season and only combined for 214 points and that was with GW shooting 49%. Give me the UNDER 221! 

40* (NBA) - Wizards/Celtics Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Under 233) 

I will gladly take the UNDER 233 in Tuesday's Play-In game between the Wizards and Celtics. I just think the total here is way too high for a game of this magnitude. The intensity for a winner take all game is massive and people forget just how much better the defenses get in the postseason. 

We saw that in the Wizards matchup with Charlotte in the regular-season finale, where they winner got to the No. 8 seed. That game had a total of 231 and finished with 225. Both these teams are better defensively than what they showed in the regular-season. Play the UNDER 233! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO BRAINER (Over 228.5) 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's game between the Magic and Timberwolves. A lot of people will just stay clear of this game as both of these teams are out of the playoff picture. 

That's where I feel the value lies. There's zero incentive for either of these teams to play defense. That's definitely how Minnesota likes it, as the Timberwolves are scoring 124.6 ppg and giving up 124.2 ppg in their last 5. Magic should be able to keep pace and I could see this thing flying past the total and into the 240s. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

40* (NBA) - Early Bird VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 221.5) 

I think there's some decent value with the UNDER 221.5 in Sunday's early matchup between the Celtics and Heat. This is the first of two straight games these two teams will play, as they will square off in Miami again on Tuesday. 

These two games could very well decide which of these two teams finish as the No. 6 seed and get next week off and which finishes No. 7 and is forced to earn a spot in the postseason in the play-in tournament. 

I just think with how much these games mean, it's going to have a playoff-like feel to it. Look for both teams to turn up the defensive intensity and for this to stay well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 221.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 235) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 235 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the Raptors and Wizards. OVER has cashed in 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall for Washington. Easy to see why when you look at how good this team is playing offensively and how much they struggle defensively. Washington has shot at least 47% from the field in 13 of their last 14, including each of the last 8 games. They have allowed 125, 141 and 135 in their last 3 games. 

Raptors are a team that relies more on their offense to win games than their defense. Toronto has allowed each of their last 5 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. There's just going to be no defense played in this game. Give me the OVER 235! 

50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 215.5) 

I really like the UNDER 215.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Heat and Mavs. These two teams are in similar spots down the stretch, as both are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. Right now both are safe, but not by much. 

Mavs sit 6th, just 0.5-games ahead of 7th place Portland. Miami is 6th in the east, but are just 1-game up on 7th place Boston. Every win is huge for these two teams and I think with both teams having Monday off, we are going to get a big defensive effort. 

Both teams also figure to be without two of their top offensive playmakers, as the Mavs aren't expected to have Kristaps Porzingis and the Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro. Note Miami is also still without Oladipo and may not have the services of Iguodala. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 219) 

I absolutely love the UNDER 219 in Friday's huge Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. The winner of this game will be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the west, as Utah comes into this matchup just 1-game up on the Suns with both teams having just 9 left on the schedule after this contest. Phoenix has the tiebreaker, so if the two finished tied they get the top spot. 

I think the defensive intensity is going to be very high on both sides. You also got Utah playing this game without Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley. So while these two did combine for 230 in their last meeting, that was with Mitchell carrying the Jazz with 41 points. Conley was also in double-figures with 11. Give me the UNDER 219! 

40* (NBA) - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 222.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 222.5 in tonight's late game between the Suns and Clippers. This game could very well decide home court if these two were to meet in the second round, as Phoenix is in the No. 2 spot, 1-game up on the Clippers. 

I think because of what is at stake, we get a strong effort defensively from two teams that can really excel on that side of the ball. Clippers are also going to be without one of their top scorers in Leonard and the Suns are in a big flat spot off that grueling 5-game road trip that had them playing the Bucks, 76ers, Celtics, Nets and Knicks. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 228.5) 

I like the OVER 228.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Pelicans. These are two of the better offensive teams in the league with New Orleans averaging 115.0 ppg and Denver at 115.5 ppg. 

Pelicans had a rough stretch recently with a lot of guys out, but they are back to full strength and have shot extremely well over their last 4 games. They hit 56% against the Nets, 56% against the Magic, 47% against the Spurs and 54% against the Clippers. Nuggets are also giving up 114.4 ppg in their last 5. Pelicans defense can't be trusted, especially on the road. NO gives up 116.0 ppg on the road and Nuggets average 117.1 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

40* (NBA) - Suns/Knicks NBATV Vegas STEAMROLLER (Under 215)

We didn't get there with the UNDER in Sunday's Suns/Nets game, but it's not going to keep me from playing the UNDER here. Phoenix is playing on no rest and will be finishing up an absolutely brutal 5-game road trip that has seen them play the Bucks, 76ers, Celtics and Nets away from home over the last week. 

Knicks are a team built on energy and defense and couldn't come into this game with more momentum on their side. There's a buzz in New York about this team and for good reason, as they have won 9 straight games. This is another chance to prove to themselves they are for real against one of the hottest teams in the league. Give me the UNDER 215! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 228.5) 

I will take the UNDER 228.5 in Monday's matchup between the Spurs and Wizards. Bradley Beal is listed as probable after suffering a leg injury late in yesterday's win over the Cavs. While it would be better if Beal wasn't playing, I definitely think he could struggle playing here at less than 100%. It's also going to be tough for Washington here to play with a ton of pace in the second of a back-to-back. 

I know the let the Cavs shoot 51.3% yesterday, but the Wizards defense has really been playing better of late. Prior to that game Washington had held 5 straight opponents to 44% or worse from the field. Spurs just shot 43.5% in their last game and have shot under 44% in 3 of their last 4 now. UNDER has cashed in 6 straight games for the Spurs. Play the UNDER 228.5! 

40* (NBA) Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 232) 

I think we are going to see a lower scoring game than what most expect in Sunday's huge matchup between the Suns and Nets. These two teams know there's a chance they meet up in the Finals. Brooklyn is arguably the team to beat if they get their Big 3 all healthy. Phoenix is quietly sitting out west 1.5-games back of No. 1 Utah. They just haven't got the love the deserves, as it feels like they are still viewed as the 4th or 5th best team in the west. Most see it Lakers/Clippers and then the Jazz before even thinking Phoenix. 

With the Nets expected to have 2 of their 3 with Durant and Irving, I think the Suns are going to treat this like it's a "test" to see where they really stand in the NBA hierarchy. I think with Phoenix playing their 4th straight on a grueling road trip that has already been to Milwaukee, Philly and Boston over the last week. 

Nets can light it up, but they have also shown they can turn it up defensively when they want to. I think they will match the Suns intensity in this one and this finds a way to stay UNDER 232! 

40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 221) 

I will take a shot with the UNDER 221 in Wednesday's big non-conference clash between the Suns and 76ers. Phoenix doesn't get near the respect they deserve in the Western Conference. This has arguably been the best team for over a month now. Suns are 15-3 in their last 18 games. They just won at Milwaukee on Monday. 

While the game against the Bucks saw 255 combined points, both teams shot lights out. This here will be a matchup of two teams that both rank in the Top 5 in defensive efficiency. 76ers should be motivated off a rare home loss and could be without two of their top scores here with Harris and Simmons questionable. Not having Simmons would also slow down the pace even more for Philly. I also think Suns will be fine playing slower in the second road game in 3 days, especially knowing they got to play at Boston tomorrow. Give me the UNDER 221! 

50* (NBA) - Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 237.5) 

I love the OVER 237.5 in Tuesday's game between the Timberwolves and Kings. I just don't see any defense being played between these two Western Conference bottom feeders. Neither plays much defense as it is. Both certainly haven't been playing much of late, as Minnesota is giving up 121.8 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5, while Sacramento has allowed 119.4 ppg on 51% shooting in their last 5. 

Key here is that both of these teams can score. I don't think it will take much for both of these teams to reach 120 points. Also, I think the fact that these two are scheduled to turn around and play each other again in Sacramento tomorrow night, gives that much more incentive to not try defensively in this first meeting. Give me the OVER 237.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) 

I really like the UNDER at 225.5 in Monday's big NBA matchup between the Warriors and 76ers. The spread for this game looked way off with the 76ers sitting as a 9-point favorite, but now that we see Steph Curry listed as questionable it makes more sense. The line tells me that Curry isn't likely to play. 

Even if he does, I think the 76ers will come to play, as Curry and Embiid are two of the top choices right now for MVP. I also think the scoring in this game could be hindered by the fact that Philadelphia has two key guys listed as questionable with Seth Curry and Tobias Harris. Those are two big losses, as both are shooting over 40% from 3. 

Neither Curry played in the first meeting between these two and that game ended with a mere 206 points. Give me the UNDER 225.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 223.5) 

Give me the OVER 223.5 in Friday's game between the Rockets and Nuggets. I just feel like this total should be closer to 230 with the way Houston is defending. Houston has allowed at least 125 in each of their last 4 and 118 or more in 9 of their last 10. If the Rockets can simply put up 110 in this one at home, this thing should fly past the total. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 212) 

I'll take my chances her with the UNDER 212 in Thursday's TNT late night matchup between the Celtics and Lakers. It doesn't matter who is available to play, when these two franchises face off, they are going to treat it a little differently. Add in the fact that it's on TNT and I think we get a really strong defensive effort from two really good defensive teams. 

UNDER has also been a really strong play for both of these teams of late. UNDER has cashed in 8 of the last 10 for Boston and 10 of the last 15 for LA. UNDER is also 9-1 in Boston's last 10 as a favorite and 6-0 in the Lakers last 6 at home. Give me the UNDER 212! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 229)

I will take my chances with the OVER 229 in Monday's game between the Bulls and Grizzlies. Both of these teams have been strong OVER plays of late. OVER has cashed in each of Chicago's last 3 games and the last 4 for the Grizzlies. 

The Bulls have been a team that played in a decent amount of high scoring games, but I feel they are even more offensive-minded after the moves they made at the trade deadline. They gave up defense for offense by getting Vucevic and it also strengthened their bench. They got a lot more fire-power on the bench than they had early in the year. 

Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 12 of their last 13 games. Even the game where they didn't that contest still had 218 points scored. With Bulls on no rest and playing their 5th and final game of their road trip, I don't see them playing a whole lot of defense in this one. Give me the OVER 229! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Over 231.5) 

I like the value here with the OVER 231.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup that has the Pacers visiting the Grizzlies. The OVER has cashed in 3 straight for Memphis and this Grizzlies offense has been on an absolute tear for a few weeks now. Memphis has scored 116 or more in 5 straight and 110 or more in 11 of 12.

They should be able to put up a big number here against a Pacers team that is without their best interior defender in Myles Turner. It's just not the same defense without one of the league's best shot blockers on the floor. Key here is the Pacers should be able to keep pace offensively with Memphis. This is a game I think we could see both teams eclipse 120 points. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 227) 

The OVER 227 is definitely a play for me tonight in the Pelicans/76ers matchup. New Orleans has been one of the worst defensive teams all season and are really playing poorly on that side of the ball right now. Pelicans are giving up 123.6 ppg on 50% shooting over their last 5 games with all 5 opponents scoring at least 115 points. 

With the 76ers playing at close to full strength and coming in fresh off 2 days of rest, I would be shocked if they don't put up at least 120 in this game. If they do that, this should fly past the mark, as the Pelicans are averaging 116.7 ppg at home. I also don't think Philadelphia will be laying it all on the line defensively like they did in their last game at Boston. Give me the OVER 227! 

40* (NBA) - Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 225.5 in tonight's big Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. These two own the two best records in the NBA, as Utah is 38-12 and the Suns are 35-14. 

Both are playing extremely well coming in as both have gone 9-1 SU over their last 10 games. I just think the intensity level is going to be turned up a notch in this game and we are going to see both teams come out looking to defend at a high level. 

That's what they do, as Utah is 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency and the Suns are 6th. Also adding to this, both teams like to slow it down and play a little more in the halfcourt. They also played once earlier this season back on Dec. 31 and the two combined for a mere 201 points with a total of 219. Give me the UNDER 225.5!  

50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 231) 

I love the OVER 231 in tonight's game between the Pelicans and Nets. While Brooklyn won't have the services of James Harden for a while, they are expected to get back Kevin Durant. The duo of Durant and Irving with all the role players they got is more than enough. 

I look for the Nets to have a field day offensively against an awful Pelicans defense that is giving up 117.6 ppg over their last 5. They didn't even try to defend the 3-point line in last night's 107-123 loss to the Hawks, as Atlanta went 20 of 31 (64.5%) from deep. They give those Nets the same looks and Brooklyn could easily score 140+

The key here is I think the Nets aren't going to be all that locked in defensively. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time before they are a cohesive defensive unit. New Orleans is also a very strong offensive team. Give me the OVER 231! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225.5) 

I love the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Hawks. I think we are getting a discount on the total due to the fact that New Orleans could be playing again without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both are listed as questionable, but there's been no indication that they will play. If they do that's great, but I don't think they need them to eclipse this number. 

In the Pelicans last 4 games they have combined for 124 with the Celtics, 125 with the Magic, 129 with these same Hawks and 137 in their last game with the Rockets. Going back even further, NO has seen a combined score of at least 120 in 7 of their last 8. 

Add that with how the Hawks have been playing and this is a no-brainer. In Atlanta's last 5 games they are scoring 117.8 ppg on 49% shooting and giving up 117.2 ppg on 48% shooting. Give me the OVER 225.5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (UNDER 224) 

I absolutely love the UNDER 224 in Friday's game between the Pelicans and Hawks. I just don't see these two coming anywhere close to this total given the circumstances. 

For Atlanta, they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after a grueling 134-129 OT win at San Antonio last night. A game in which 4 different Hawks' players logged 35 or more minutes. On top of that, this is Atlanta's 8th and final game of a brutal 8-game road trip. 

As for the Pelicans, they might be extremely short-handed here, as Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonza Ball are all questionable. Given that the line for this game is right around a pick'em that tells me there's a good chance at least two of these guys aren't suiting up and maybe all 3. Give me the UNDER 224! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 224.5) 

I really like the OVER 224.5 in Monday's game between the Bulls and Warriors. Chicago added Nikola Vucevic at the deadline and he really gives the Bulls a legit second option to pair with Zach LaVine. It no doubt makes the bulls a better offensive team. The problem is they got worse defensively and weren't a good defensive team to start with. Not to mention there's going to be a drop in their defense adding in new players, as the chemistry just isn't there. 

It's why I'm not concerned with the Warriors offensive struggles of late. There's also a chance here that Golden State could be getting Steph Curry back from injury, which would definitely make this an even stronger play if he suits up. Either way I look for this game to easily get into the 230's. Give me the OVER 224.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 219.5) 

I really like the UNDER 219.5 in Friday's matchup between the Blazers and Magic. I know Portland is coming off a 125-122 win over Miami that flew past the total of 215.5, but I just don't see them wanting or needing to push the pace in the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

A big reason for that is this could get really ugly for Orlando. The Magic were big time sellers at the trade deadline, parting ways with three of their best players in Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier. Cole Anthony is still out with an injury and they have lost Fultz and Isaac for the season. They added Otto Porter Jr, Wendell Carter Jr, and Gary Harris, but unlikely they play this game. Simply put the Magic are going to be playing a bunch of scrubs in this one and might struggle to score 90. Give me the UNDER 219.5! 

40* (NBA) Over/Under Total MASSACRE (Over 229) 

I like the OVER 229 in Wednesday's NBA matchup that has the Mavs visiting the Timberwolves. Dallas is in a groove offensively right now. The Mavs just scored 132 points on 56% shooting from the field in a 132-92 win over the Blazers. That's 3 straight games now where the Mavs have shot 50% or better from the field. 

Unless they don't show up at all, you can pretty much bank on them extending that to 4 straight against the Timberwolves. Opponents are shooting 48% against the Timberwolves on the season. Key here is Minnesota has got their offense going. In the 7 games since they returned from the All-Star break they are averaging 116.9 ppg. Mavs defense has been better, but it's still not great and this feels like a game they won't put forth a big effort on that side of the ball. Give me the OVER 229! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 230) 

I think we are getting a great price with the OVER at just 230 in Thursday's NBA game between the Wolves and Suns. It's tempting to take the big number with Minnesota in this game, but after how they burned me on Tuesday against the Lakers, I'm gonna pass. 

Thing is, while there's likely value with the Timberwolves right now, I think there's more value on the OVER. Minnesota is playing better right now because they are scoring points. A team that only averages 109.4 ppg on the season is scoring 118.6 ppg on 49% shooting in their last 5. 

The other key here is that while the offense is improved, the defense has remained a weakness. Minnesota is giving up 120.0 ppg on the road this year and 122.8 ppg in their last 5. Suns have shot worse than 47% from the field once in their last 18 games and will have fresh legs here having been off the last 2 days. Give me the OVER 230! 

50* BLAZERS/WOLVES NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 233.5) 

I really considered take the Timberwolves as a home dog here, but I think the real value in this game is the OVER 233.5. Minnesota looked like a different team out of the break, as they went on the road and crushed the Pelicans 135-105. Timberwolves shot 53.7% from the field in that game and while some of that was New Orleans subpar defense, it's not like the Blazers are a good defensive team. Portland just allowed the Suns to shoot 59% from the field in a crushing 121-127 loss at home on Thursday. 

I think there's a good chance that Minnesota carries over that strong offensive showing and I definitely don't trust this Timberwolves defense to slow down a potent Blazers offense. This is one of those games where it feels like both teams could easily get into the 120s and it wouldn't shock me if it got way up there with both in the 230s. Give me the OVER 233.5! 

40* RAPTORS/HORNETS NBA TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 230.5) 

I like the OVER 230.5 in Saturday's NBA matchup that has the Raptors visiting the Hornets. Toronto has a bunch of guys out right now in Quarantine and I think it has them a bit undervalued on the offensive side. Toronto has not slowed down at all offensively, they played short-handed at Boston right before the break and put up 125 and then came out of the break with 120 at home against the Hawks. 

Thing is, they have to score like that because all those guys out is really hurting them defensively. Raptors are giving up 121.8 ppg on 49% shooting in their last 5. I just feel like with the current form of Toronto and the Hornets being a very capable offensive team with a sub-par defense, this game will easily get into the 230's. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

40* CAVS/PELICANS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 228.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228.5 in Friday's NBA game that has the Pelicans hosting the Cavs. I'm expecting a big bounce back game offensively for New Orleans after they stunk it up last night against the Timberwolves, scoring just 105 points on 43% shooting. This is just too good of an offensive team to play that poorly and the Cavs are definitely a team that can be exposed on the defensive side. 

The big key here is the Pelicans just aren't a good defensive team at all. They just let a depleted Minnesota team put up 135 points on 54% shooting. Clearly some of that is effort, but more of it is just they don't have the pieces to be any good on that side of the ball. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

40* CELTICS/NETS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 234.5) 

I'm going to take the OVER 234.5 in Thursday's game that has the Boston Celtics visiting the Brooklyn Nets. I know 234.5 might seem like a big number for a total, but it feels like a discount to me given the teams involved. 

The Nets are simply the ideal team to back the OVER with and the books have had a hard time setting the bar high enough. The OVER has cashed in 24 of Brooklyn's last 31 games. 

Even though they aren't the offensive juggernaut they would be if Kevin Durant was healthy, they got more than enough offensive fire-power with the duo of Kyrie Irving and James Harden. Nets have scored 124 or more points in 7 of their last 10 games and Durant only played in 1 of those games. 

Boston in years past has been known for their defense, but they have had their struggles on that side of the ball this season. They are giving up on average 110.8 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47% from the field. They are expected to get back one of their top defenders in Marcus Smart, but he hasn't played since the end of Jan. I just think given the rust and lack of conditioning, he's not likely to have a huge impact in slowing down this Nets offense. 

This is just one of those games where I think both teams have a really good shot at reaching 120 points. Give me the OVER 234.5! 

40* SPURS/MAVS NBA OVER/UNDER DESTROYER (Over 222.5)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 222.5 in Wednesday's NBA showdown between the Mavs and Spurs. I just think this total should be closer to 230 than 220. Dallas has really come alive of late. They won 9 of their last 11 games before the All-Star break. A big reason they surged is they got healthy and their offense starting producing close to the level it did last year when it was one of the best the league has ever seen. 

This is a team that can score 120 points and not even play well. Thing is they almost have to score that much because of how bad they are defensively. San Antonio is healthy and got most of their guys back after playing short-handed for most of February because of Covid. I think this a better offense than they are getting credit for right now. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

40* BUCKS/GRIZZLIES NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 234.5) 

I know the UNDER has hit in each of the Grizzlies last 5 games and the last 2 for the Bucks, but I can't help myself with the OVER when these two face off tonight. I know it's been better here of late, but the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team. They have allowed 9 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. 

After scoring a mere 97 points on 40.5% shooting in Tuesday's ugly 31-point loss to the Nuggets at home, I feel really good about the Bucks offense showing up in a big way in this one. I could easily see Milwaukee scoring 130 in this one. 

I also think the Grizzlies could put up a big number here. Memphis has scored 120+ in 3 of their last 5 and are as healthy as they have been all season. Bucks are also not a great defensive team. They have given up 110 or more in 10 of their last 12 and are allowing 115.1 ppg on 47% shooting in road games this season. Give me the OVER 234.5! 

40* HORNETS/WOLVES NBA TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 232)

I will gladly take my chances here with the OVER 232 in tonight's game between the Hornets and Timberwolves. The OVER has been free money during Charlotte's current 6-game road trip. Each of the first 5 games on this trip have gone OVER the total and all 5 have seen a combined score of at least 234 points with 4 of the 5 going for more than 240. 

I think the only reason this total isn't closer to 240 is because the Timberwolves are coming off a game against the Suns at home where they only scored 99 points. That's just not a big concern for me when you factor in how bad the Hornets have been defensively of late. Charlotte has allowed at least 121 points in all 5 games on this trip and all 5 teams have shot 51% or better from the field. Minnesota also plays no defense, having allowed 118 or more in 4 straight with 3 of those teams going for 128 or more. Give me the OVER 232! 

40* JAZZ/76ERS NBA TOTAL MONEYMAKER (Over 227.5) 

I just can't help myself here with the OVER with a total of just 227.5 in Wednesday's game between the Jazz and 76ers. These two teams just played on Feb. 15 at Utah and combined for 157 points in a 134-123 win for the Jazz. Neither team had an answer for the opposing offense, as both teams shot 50% or better from the field. Philadelphia also got to 123 points despite only making 8 of 23 from long-distance (avg 12 made 3's at home). 

I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to each hit 114 points in this game, as that would be enough to cash the OVER right there. Utah hasn't scored fewer than 112 in 11 straight games and the 76ers are averaging 117.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

40* HORNETS/BLAZERS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Over 233) 

I like the OVER 233 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Blazers and Hornets. The OVER has been cash money in games with Charlotte as the road team. The Hornets have played 16 games away from home and 12 have gone OVER the total. Charlotte is averaging 114.1 ppg on the road and giving up 117.3 ppg. In just the last 5 games the Hornets are scoring 116.8 ppg and giving up 121.8 ppg. 

Key here is the Blazers figure to get back on track offensively after really struggling on that side in their 4-game skid. Portland just ran out of gas playing short-handed. They should have their legs back under them in this one, as they have had the last 2 days off. Prior to losing 4 straight, Blazers had scored at least 115 in 5 straight and I think they easily get there in this one. In fact, I see both teams reaching 120. Give me the OVER 233!