9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Oklahoma Sooners -3

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma as a slim 3-point home favorite against Iowa State on Wednesday. We played on and won with the Cyclones in Saturday's 77-62 win over Baylor as a 2-point home dog. ISU is just one of those teams that I think is a great team to back at home and fade on the road. A lot of teams fit this bills in the Big 12 and Big 10. The only true road game the Cyclones have played this season was at in-state rival Iowa and they lost that game 56-75 with the Hawkeyes not having their best player in Kris Murray. 

Now they have to go on the road against a good and hungry Oklahoma team that is coming off a 1-point loss at home to highly ranked Texas. This is a team that has been playing well. They are 9-3 over their last 12 games with the other two losses coming by 4-points at Villanova and by 10 on a neutral court against a very good Arkansas team. Give me the Sooners -3! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money Vegas Insider: Ole Miss Rebels +12.5

I'll take my chances with Ole Miss as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 7 Alabama. I just think this is a few too many points for the Crimson Tide to be laying in this spot. Crimson Tide are off a double-digit road win against Mississippi State to open up SEC play, improving to 11-2. I think this team might be feeling themselves a little too much and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown against Kentucky. 

It makes it that much easier to not give the Rebels enough respect when they come in having lost their last two and are just 2-5 in their last 7 games. They do have a bad loss at home to North Alabama during this stretch, but the other 4 losses are against teams ranked 32nd or better at KenPom and all of those losses came by 11 or fewer points. 

For as good as Alabama has been, their only win in their last 9 games by more than 13 points was a 20-point win at home over Jackson State. They 13-point win was against South Dakota State. I expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, I just think they would need to play their very best to win here by more than the number. Give me Ole Miss +12.5! 

9* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Oklahoma State Cowboys -2.5

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma State laying 2.5-points at home against West Virginia on Monday. Don't be fooled by the records or rankings. Anytime you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, I tend to look that way. 

The Cowboys may be just 8-5 on the season, but 4 of the 5 losses have come by 5 or fewer points, including a mere 2-point loss at Kansas on Saturday. The only other loss was by 10 in a true road game against a very good UConn team. 

West Virginia is 10-3, but all 10 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 45. They lost by 12-points on a neutral site to Purdue and by 10 on the road at Xavier. They are also coming off a OT loss at K-State on Saturday. Having just 1-day of rest, off an OT game and both games being on the road in Big 12 play is a lot to ask the Mountaineers to overcome in this spot. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Villanova Wildcats -2.5

I'll take my chances with Villanova as a small 2.5-point home favorite against Marquette on Saturday. This to me is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats at home, especially with Villanova figuring to be extra motivated coming off a loss at UConn. 

Wildcats are just 7-6 overall, but have played one of the tougher schedules in the country, as 4 of their 6 losses are to teams ranked inside the Top 50. They also have a loss on a neutral floor to Oregon and a loss at Temple early in the year. All 6 losses have also come by 8-points or fewer with 3 by 4 or less. 

Marquette is a good team that has been impressive in their 10-4 start with a bunch of quality losses of their own, but are just 1-2 in true road games with the only win coming against a struggling Notre Dame team that also has home losses to Miami and Syracuse. Just not enough respect being given to the Wildcats in this one. Give me Villanova -2.5! 

8* NCAAB - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Iowa State Cyclones +2

I will gladly take the Cyclones as a 2-point home dog against Baylor on Saturday. Iowa State is off to an impressive 9-2 start, with their only two losses coming against UConn on a neutral floor and a true road game against in-state rival Iowa, where the Hawkeyes couldn't miss from deep (12 of 23, 52.2%). 

Cyclones are a perfect 7-0 at home this season and have one of the best homecourt advantages in the country. They are also extremely well rested for this game, having not played since Dec. 18th. Baylor on the other hand just played a game on Wednesday and while the Bears are off to a strong 10-2 start, they don't have the same dominant feel to them as the last couple of years.

Baylor's only true road game was at Marquette back on Nov. 29th and the Bears were annihilated by the Golden Eagles 96-70. This one figures to be a little closer, but no way should ISU be a dog in this matchup. Give me Iowa State +2! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Clemson Tigers -1.5

I'm backing Clemson as a 1.5-point home favorite against NC State in Friday's ACC action on the college hardwood. The Tigers are off to a strong 10-3 start and have 6 of their last 7 coming into this matchup. Two of their 3 losses were by just a few points, as they lost 58-60 in a true road game against South Carolina and by 3-points on a neutral site against Iowa. I just feel the Tigers are being a bit short-changed here at home, where they are a perfect 7-0 this season. 

NC State is also off to a good start, as they bring an 11-3 record into this game. However, the Wolfpack have only played one true road game to this point, which has certainly aided their strong start. NC State's lone true road game was at Miami and they lost that game 73-80 after jumping out to a 33-17 lead in the first 13 minutes of the game. Wolfpack were outscored 63-40 over the final 27 minutes and change of that game. If they struggle out of the gate in this one, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Clemson -1.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nebraska Cornhuskers +4.5

I'm taking Nebraska as a 4.5-point home dog against the Hawkeyes. I don't think getting back Khris Murray will be enough for Iowa to go on the road and beat the Cornhuskers by 5 or more. I think it will be a struggle for the Hawkeyes to just win the game. Iowa is 1-0 in true road games, beating Seton Hall 83-67 back in November. At the time that win was impressive, but it's looking less and less of a quality win with the Pirates now sitting at 7-7, having lost 6 of their last 9. 

Nebraska comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 7-6 on the season, but have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They have lost in true road games against St. John's and Indiana. Neutral site games against Oklahoma, Memphis and Kansas State. The only other loss is a 62-65 OT setback at home against Purdue, who many feel is the best team in the Big Ten. 

I just think both of these teams are going to be teams you look to back on their home floor and fade on the road in Big Ten play, especially in games with a smaller line like we have here. Give me Nebraska +4.5! 

9* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats -3

I'll take my chances with Kentucky laying 3 on the road against Missouri. I just feel we are getting some good value here with the Wildcats. Missouri is off to an impressive 11-1 start and last time they took the floor they embarrassed Illinois 93-71 as a 6.5-point dog. Last time we saw Kentucky in a big game was a neutral site matchup against UCLA and they did not look great in a 53-63 loss. 

The one thing to note about Missouri and their 11-1 record, is they rank a mere 318th in strength of schedule. The Tigers only other game vs a team ranked inside the Top 50 resulted in a 67-95 loss at home to Kansas. 

I also really think Kentucky is going to come in motivated and sharp for this game. Wildcats are just 1-3 in games away from home and know they have to get better away from Lexington heading into SEC play. Kentucky also hasn't played in a week and a week of practice can do wonders for a young team like the Wildcats. Give me Kentucky -3! 

8* NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR: Florida -3

I'll take my chances with Florida as a 3-point favorite against Oklahoma. The game will be played on a neutral court (Spectrum Center) in Charlotte. This is one of those "You have to bet no matter what" the numbers say. KenPom would have Oklahoma a 1-point favorite in this game, yet they are getting 3. These lines aren't typically too far off from KenPoms projections. That tells me the books don't agree with the numbers on this one. They are inviting you to bet the Sooners. These are just the kind of plays you don't want to be on the public side and instead should be betting the other side. Give me the Gators -3! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR: USC Trojans +1.5

I'll take my chances with USC as a slim 1.5-point home dog against Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers come into this game with a 9-1 record, but their only two wins vs a team ranked inside the Top 100 at KenPom are a 43-42 win on a neutral site against Northwestern and a 65-60 win at home vs St. Louis. Their only other Top 100 matchup resulted in a 73-82 loss at Memphis.

USC had an ugly loss to Florida Gulf Coast in their opener, but have gone 8-2 since with their only losses being a 66-73 OT loss to Tennessee on a neutral floor and a 59-64 loss to Wisconsin on a neutral site. 

Trojans are elite defensively inside. USC ranks 15th nationally in opponent effective FG% at 43.1. They are also No. 4 in the country in 2PT% defense. That should be a huge factor in this matchup, as Auburn can't shoot from the outside. Tigers are 334th nationally in 3PT% offense. They are also just 232nd in offensive effective FG%. 

This will also be Auburn's first true road game of the season and it's a long way from home. The wrong team is favored in this one. Give me USC +1.5! 

10* NCAAB Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Kansas State -3.5

I'll take my chances with Kansas State as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Cornhuskers. This will technically be a neutral site game, which I think is factoring into the value we are getting with the Wildcats, as this will certainly feel like a home game for K-State with the game being played at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. 

This does feel like a better Nebraska team than what we have seen in recent years. They have an impressive 65-53 win over Creighton and just lost in OT at home to Purdue, who many believe is the best team in the Big Ten. With that said, they also lost by 16 on the road to Indiana in their Big Ten opener. They have a 20-point loss on the road to St. John's, 13-point loss on a neutral site against Oklahoma and a 12-point loss to Memphis on a neutral site. 

The Nebraska offense ranks 276th in 3P%, 328th in FT%, they also turn the ball over a lot and do a poor job of getting to the free throw line. I also think it's worth pointing out that the Cornhuskers' opponents this season are shooting a mere 60.5% from the free throw line. The 2nd lowest mark against any team in the country. That's pure luck. There's no defending a free throw. 

K-State who comes in 9-1 with their only loss in a true road game at Butler is simply the better team on both sides of the ball. Two stats that I love with the Wildcats is they are No. 9 defensively in the country in TO% and No. 6 offensively in assists/FG made. This team shares the ball at an elite level and forces the other team into mistakes. Give me Kansas St -3.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -1

I'll take my chances with Maryland as a slim 1-point home favorite against UCLA. I think we are getting great value here with the Terps at basically a pick'em on their home floor. Maryland comes in having lost 2 straight after their perfect 8-0 start. Nothing to be ashamed about either loss, as they lost by 5 on the road to Wisconsin in Big Ten play and then by just 3 on a neutral site to Tennessee. UCLA comes in having won 5 in a row, but will be playing their first true road game outside of the state of California. Bruins two best wins are both in Pac-12 play, beating Stanford and Oregon. They lost their two other top tier matchups, falling 70-79 to Illinois on a neutral site and then 75-80 to Baylor on a neutral site. Give me the Terps -1! 

8* NCAAB - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Wisconsin Badgers +4.5

I'll take my chances with Wisconsin as a 4.5-point road dog against the Hawkeyes. I cashed on Iowa as a small home favorite against Iowa State, but I did bet that game before news broke that Iowa's best player, Khris Murray was ruled out. Murray is not going to play again today and I just think without him, they are going to have a much harder time against the Badgers. Iowa really just had one of those nights against their in-state rivals, as they were 12 of 23 (52.2%) from behind the 3-point line. This is not a team outside of Murray that has shot the 3-ball well. It helped the Cyclones seemed willing to give them wide-open looks from deep. The Badgers won't let that happen. Give me Wisconsin +4.5! 

10* NCAAB Prime Time PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arizona Wildcats Pick'em

I'll gladly take my chances with Arizona at a pick'em against Indiana in Saturday's neutral site showdown at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. I'm sure there will be some Hoosier fans that make the trip, but there should be more Wildcats in the building given the short trip. More than anything, I think Arizona is the better team. I'm just not completely sold Indiana is as good as what everyone makes them out to be. In their only two games outside of Indiana, they squeaked out a 2-point win at Xavier and lost by 15 at Rutgers. I could see them being a big play against team away from Assembly Hall in Big Ten play. 

I know Arizona just lost by 15 at Utah in their Pac-12 opener, but they at least have some wins away from home, beating the likes of Cincinnati, San Diego St and Creighton at neutral sites. I also think it's a good matchup for the Wildcats. Indiana relies heavily on Trayce Jackson-Davis to shoulder the load. He's averaging 17.5 ppg. Only one other player averages in double-figures and that's Xavier Johnson at 10.0 ppg. 

I think the Wildcats have the size inside to make it difficult on Jackson-Davis to get easy looks at the hoop. Arizona weakness defensively is the 3-point shot. THey are 246th in Def. 3-PT% and 44th in Def. 2-PT%. I think it will be tough for Indiana to keep pace offensively in what figures to be a game that's played up and down the floor. Give me Arizona PK! 

9* NCAAB Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER: Louisville Cardinals +10.5

I'll take my chances with Louisville at +10.5. I know Louisville is bad, but so is Florida State. The Seminoles are 1-9 with their only win coming at home against Mercer. I just don't think this team should be laying double-digits against any conference opponent. The big thing to note about Louisville is their schedule. The Cardinals' last 5 games have come against Miami, Maryland, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Arkansas. All of those teams rank in the Top 50 at KenPom. 

In their 3 other losses they were all 1-point defeats to Bellarmine, Wright State and App State. You got to think this team is chomping at the bit to get their first win and they have to feel like they got a chance in this game. If Louisville isn't competitive here, I'm going to jump ship immediately on this team going forward. I just think there's too much value given what we have seen out of the Seminoles. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Cardinals won this game outright. Give me Louisville +10.5! 

9* NCAAB Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Iowa Hawkeyes -3.5

I'll take my chances with Iowa at -3.5. This a full 3-points off the opening line of 6.5. That may have been a bit steep to lay with Iowa, but there's a big difference between only having to win a game by 4 instead of 7. 

I'm also not so sure why everyone is way down on Iowa in this spot. Iowa did not play well in their 62-74 loss to Duke in the Jimmy V Classic at MSG on Tuesday. It was also one of the worst games of the season for Kris Murray, who this team feeds off of offensively. I expect him to be a lot better in this one. 

I also don't think homecourt is getting enough respect here. Over the last 3 years Iowa is 33-5 SU on their home floor. They are 25-13 (66%) ATS in those games. Iowa State is 4-17 SU in road games the last 3 years. Home team has failed to cover just once in the last 6 meetings in the series. Give me the Hawkeyes -3.5! 

9* NCAAB Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Nebraska Cornhuskers +13.5

I'll take my chances with Nebraska covering the 13.5 point spread on the road against the Hoosiers. I would be surprised if Indiana didn't win this game, but I think it's asking a lot for the Hoosiers to cover this big number, especially with a matchup against Arizona on deck Saturday. 

This is also a Nebraska team that I think is still being greatly undervalued even after their big 63-53 upset win on the road against Creighton this past Sunday. The Cornhuskers have looked like a different team since getting back their best player in Derrick Walker. He didn't play in either of their losses to St. John's or Oklahoma. The only loss with him on the floor is to Memphis. 

Nebraska is 6-1 ATS last 7 off a cover, 5-2 ATS last 7 on the road and are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record. Give me Nebraska +13.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Duke Blue Devils -2

I'll take my chances with Duke as a mere 2-point favorite against Iowa in their showdown at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. This is a good but not great Hawkeyes team and I just feel that they are getting a little too much respect here. Iowa is 6-1, but their two best wins are against Seton Hall and Clemson, who look like at best teams that will be on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. The one above-average team they faced was TCU and they lost that game 66-79. 

I just don't think the Hawkeyes are good enough defensively to slow down this Duke offensive attack. I also think the Blue Devils will be able to get a lot of 2nd chances on offense with how good they are on the offensive glass (#2 in the country in Off. Reb%). Duke is also very good defensively at defending the 3-point shot and without the deep ball falling in at a high rate, I just don't know how the Hawkeyes keep pace in this one. Give me Duke -2! 

10* NCAAB Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Wisconsin Badgers -1

I'll take my chances with Wisconsin as a mere 1-point home favorite against Maryland. I think this is a good spot here to fade the Terps. Maryland comes into this game 8-0 and fresh off a 71-66 win at home over No. 16 ranked Illinois. That win jumped the Terps from No. 22 in the polls all the way up to No. 13. 

No question this team is better than expected, but winning on the road in the Big Ten is no easy task, especially against a quality team like Wisconsin. Keep in mind that Maryland's only true road game this season was against Louisville, who has yet to win a game this season at 0-8. 

I also think Badgers team isn't getting enough respect for their 6-2 start. Wisconsin's only two losses are by 1-point in OT against Kansas on a neutral floor and by 3 at home to Wake Forest. A game where they led by 5 with less than 5 minutes to play and were right there despite shooting just 43% from the field and allowing the Deacons to shoot 54%. Badgers also have quality wins over Stanford, Dayton, USC and Marquette. Give me Wisconsin -1! 

8* NCAAB Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Iowa State Cyclones -4

I will gladly take my chances with Iowa State laying just 4-points at home against St. John's. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Cyclones team so far this year. Iowa State is 6-1 with their only loss coming to UConn, who is currently ranked No. 4 at KenPom. That was also a tired Cyclones team playing their 3rd game in 4 days and having just upset Villanova and UNC in their previous two. As for St. John's they are getting a lot of respect right now with their best win is against Syracuse and they needed OT to get it. That's also a Syracuse team that sits at just 4-4 with losses to Colgate and Bryant. Biggest reason the Red Storm are 8-0 is their schedule. St. John's strength of schedule ranks outside the Top 350. This will also be the Red Storm's first true road game of the 2022-23 season and ISU's Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest places in the country to play. Give me the Cyclones -4! 

9* NCAAB Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -1.5

I'll take my chances with Maryland as a small 1.5-point home favorite against Illinois. It's been an impressive start for the Terps under first year head coach Kevin Willard. Maryland is 7-0 and can really define their season with a 4-game stretch that has them facing Illinois, Wisconsin, Tennessee and UCLA. I just feel like they are right there with the top teams in this conference and with how much home court means in the Big Ten, you got to give the edge here to Maryland. This is also a bit of a tricky spot for Illinois, coming off a 73-44 blowout win over Syracuse and having a showdown with Texas at Madison Square Garden on deck next Tuesday. Give me the Terps -1.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5

I'll take my chances with North Carolina catching 5.5-points on the road against the Hoosiers. I think we are getting a great price on the Tar Heels in this one. UNC had opened the season 5-0 before blowing a 58-51 lead with under 5 minutes to play in a 65-70 loss to ISU. They then lost 101-103 to Arkansas in a thrilling 4OT game on Sunday. 

I just think it has them getting a few too many points here against what I think is an overrated Indiana team. The Hoosiers are 6-0, but 5 of those 6 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 250. The one good win they have is over No. 32 Xavier and they barely snuck that one out in a 81-79 win. You also got to look at how well the ACC has been playing in this ACC/Big Ten challenge. Give me the Tar Heels +5.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Duke Blue Devils -5

I'll take my chances with Duke as a 5-point home favorite against Ohio State. I like the Blue Devils quite a bit in this spot. Duke should be highly motivated coming off an embarrassing 56-75 loss to Purdue. It was just one of those nights for the Blue Devil from outside, as they were just 2-19 (10.5%) from behind the 3-point line. I look for Duke to respond in a big way on their home floor, while I think this could be a tricky spot for the Buckeyes, who will be playing their first true road game of the season. Ohio State could also be a bit rusty, as they haven't played in a week. Give me Duke -5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Virginia Cavaliers -4.5

I'll take my chance with Virginia laying 4.5 on the road against Michigan. I just have not been impressed with what I've seen out of this Michigan team early on. The Wolverines are 5-1, but the only Top 75 team they have played is Arizona State and they lost that game 62-87. Michigan has also struggled to put bad teams away. They got a 5-point win over Eastern Michigan, a 70-66 OT win at home against Ohio and last time out they beat Jackson State 78-68. The same Jackson State team that lost 51-90 to Indiana a few days later. 

As for Virginia, they are 5-0 with two Top 25 wins away from home. They knocked off Baylor 86-79 on a neutral floor and Illinois 70-61 at a neutral site. The Cavs aren't just winning with their defense this year. Virginia is No. 5 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are No. 4 in the country in 3P% and No. 2 in FTA/FGA. 

The one weakness Virginia's defense has had is defending the 3-pointer, as they are No. 202 in opponent 3P%. Michigan's not a great 3-point shooting team, ranking just 229th in 3P%. Really the only thing the Wolverines have done well is not turn the ball over, but that's negated by the fact that their defense ranks No. 306 in opponent TO%. I just don't think playing at home will be enough for them to make a game of it. Give me Virginia -4.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5

I'll take my chances here with Penn State as a 1.5-point road dog against Clemson. I really like this matchup for the Nittany Lions, who I think are flying a bit under the radar right now. Penn State's only loss this season is a 59-61 setback against a good Virginia Tech team on a neutral floor. A game they nearly one, despite them trailing 9-25 with 8 minutes to play in the 1st half. Penn State does have 3 top 100 wins beating Butler, Furman and Colorado State. 

As for Clemson, the Tigers are 5-2 and just haven't impressed me. Their best win on the season in terms of where their opponents rank is a 67-59 win against No. 213 Cal and that's a Golden Bears team that is currently sitting 0-7 to start the season. Clemson did lose by just 3 to Iowa on a neutral floor, but the Hawkeyes were in control of that game for all but the last 5 minutes. 

Penn State will also have the best player on the floor in this game in Jalen Pickett. I just don't think the Nittany Lions should be a dog in this fight. Give me Penn State +1.5! 

8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Maryland Terrapins -23.5

I'll take my chances laying the 23.5 at home with Maryland against a bad Coppin State team. The Terps have been one of the big surprise teams early on this season, as they are way better than most anticipated. Maryland came into this season ranked just 56th at KenPom. They now sit at No. 24. In their last two games they have beat No. 45 St Louis 95-67 and No. 48 Miami 88-70. Now they face a Coppin State team that has already lost 3 times by a wide margin. They lost by 23 at No. 159 Charlotte, by 19 at No. 121 Marshall and by 16 at No. 81 Towson. The Eagles are awful on both sides of the ball, ranking 296th in adjusted off. eff. and 289 in adjusted def. eff. Maryland is 23rd in adjusted off. eff. and 34th in adj. def. efficiency. Give me the Terps -23.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Memphis Tigers -1.5

I'll take my chances with Memphis as a 1.5-point favorite against Seton Hall. The betting public is all over the Pirates in this game and I'm not sure why. Seton Hall is 3-1, but all 3 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 250. The only real legit team they have played is Iowa and they lost at home to the Hawkeyes by a score of 67-83. 

As for Memphis, they are off to a 2-1 start and have played a pretty tough schedule to this point. All 3 of the Tigers' opponents have ranked inside the Top 100 at KenPom. They have a 76-67 win at Vandy and a 62-47 win at home against VCU. The only loss coming by 6 points to a St Louis team that comes in 5-1. Give me Memphis -1.5! 

8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Michigan Wolverines -22

I'll take my chances with Michigan as a big 22-point home favorite against Jackson State tonight. I just don't see the Tigers being able to keep this one close against what should be a hungry Wolverines team that hasn't exactly played great basketball in their last two games. Michigan was upset last Thursday in an ugly 62-87 loss on a neutral floor to Arizona State and then needed OT to escape with a 70-66 win over a subpar Ohio team on Sunday. 

With this being their last game before a 6-day break, I got to think the Wolverines will be out to make a statement here. They should be able to do just that. Jackson State is ranked 309th in the country at KenPom. The Tigers are No. 332 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 272 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Jackson State also likes to play fast, ranking 49th in the country in tempo. 

I just think it's a recipe for disaster wanting to turn this into a transition game against this more athletic Michigan team, who ranks 29th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Give me Michigan -22! 

9* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: BYU Cougars -1.5

I'll take my chances with BYU as a slim 1.5-point favorite against USC on a neutral floor. The Trojans started out their season with an ugly 61-74 loss at home to Florida Gulf Coast, who we have seen go on to lose by the likes of 31 to Tennessee. USC has responded with 3 straight wins, but two of those were cupcakes against Alabama St and Mount St. Mary's. The other was a 2-point win against a free-falling Vermont team that is just 1-5 to start the year and has gone from being ranked No. 100 at KenPom to No. 160.

One of the big problems for USC is they are having to go at it without 5-star big man Vincent Iwuchukwu, who they desperately needed to step in and play a big role to fill the void left by Isaiah Mobley. 

BYU's only loss on the season is a 75-82 setback on the road against a very good San Diego State team and they had a lead late (led 67-61 with 6:50 to play) in that game before the Aztecs pulled away down the stretch. Give me the Cougars -1.5! 

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Northwestern Wildcats -2

I'll take my chances with Northwestern as a slim 2-point favorite against Liberty in Tuesday's matchup in the Cancun Challenge. The Wildcats have gotten off to an impressive and surprising 4-0 start, as a lot of people threw this team under the bus when guys like Pete Nance (UNC) and Ryan Young (Duke) transferred after last season. 

Wildcats are getting enough offense, led by one of the Big Ten's better players in Boo Buie. They are also locking teams down defensively. Northwestern ranks 21st in adjusted efficiency on defense and No. 11 in effective FG% defense. 

Liberty is 2-2 and have been a bit of a disappointment. Losing to Alabama was to be expected, but it was the way in which they lost by 36 points (59-95). They also lost 72-76 at home to Southern Miss last time out. Defense has not been a strength for them, as they are 311th in the country in effective FG% defense. Give me Northwestern -2! 

9* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nevada Wolf Pack +6 

I'll take my chances with Nevada as a 6-point dog against K-State in Tuesday's action out of the Cayman Islands Classic. The Wolf Pack have really looked strong to start out the 2022 season, as it seems as though Steve Alford has got this team playing up to their potential after failing to do so a year ago. Nevada is 5-0 with a 13-point win over Grand Canyon who is ranked No. 103 and a 9-point win over Tulane who is No. 74. 

They are really locked in defensively, as they are sitting No. 3 in the country in effective FG% defense. They are No. 14 in 3P% defense, No. 3 in 2P% defense and No. 7 in Block%. 

K-State is 4-0 and certainly headed in the right direction under head coach Jerome Tang, but the strong start has come against an easy schedule. Three of their wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 210 in UT Rio Grande Valley, Cal and UMKC. The other win is against No. 184 Rhode Island, who I'm not sure deserves to be ranked that high. Rhode Island is 1-3 with losses to No. 202 Quinnipiac and No. 190 Texas State. Give me the Wolf Pack +6! 

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Mississippi State Bulldogs -2.5

I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Marquette on a neutral floor. The Bulldogs have shot up the rankings early on this season. KenPom had this team ranked 53rd going into their season opener against Texas A&M CC and they now sit 27th. They are 4-0 with their only win decided by fewer than 20 points being a 19-point win over Akron.

This team has clearly taken to new head coach Chris Jans and the emphasis that he puts on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulldogs rank 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 6th in effective FG% defense. They are also 1st in the country in Steal% and 21st in Block%. 

Marquette is off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming by 5 on the road against Purdue, but this is a team that lost a lot from last year's squad and were a bit lucky to keep that game against the Boilermakers as close as they did. Purdue shot 62% on 2-pt attempts. The only thing that saved Marquette in that game was they piled on 15 offensive rebounds. I just don't see that being the case in this one. I also think Mississippi State's grind it out style could really take the Golden Eagles out of their game as they want to play fast. Give me the Bulldogs -2.5! 

8* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: DePaul Blue Demons +7.5

I'll take my chances with DePaul catching 7.5-points on a neutral floor against Oklahoma State. I think we are getting some value here with the Blue Demons at this price. This to me just feels like a bit of an overreaction with DePaul after Friday's 61-69 loss to Santa Clara as a 2.5-point favorite. 

The fact that the Blue Demons only lost by 8 points, despite them shooting just 34.4% from the field and finishing -16 in the rebound department says a lot about the potential of this team and let's not forget this team started out 3-0 with a road win over Minnesota before that loss. 

As for the Cowboys, they haven't exactly looked great to start the year. They only beat UT Arlington by 11 as a 20.5-point favorite. They lost outright as a 8.5-point favorite to Southern Illinois and last time out lost outright to UCF as a 6-point favorite. Give me DePaul +7.5!

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Seton Hall Pirates -18.5

I'll take my chances with Seton Hall as a 18.5-point home favorite against Wagner. I don't see the Pirates having any problem winning here by 20+ points. Big bounce back spot for Seton Hall after Wednesday's 16-point loss at home to Iowa. That loss looks worse than it is, as the Hawkeyes aren't getting a ton of love from the media. At least not yet. KenPom has that Iowa team ranked No. 15 in the country. 

Prior to the loss to Iowa, the Pirates dominated Monmouth 79-52 and St. Peter's 80-44. Both of those teams are ranked very similar to this Wagner team. The Seahawks are also at a scheduling disadvantage here, as they are playing this game on just 1-day of rest after facing Fairfield on Friday. Seton Hall has been off for a full 3 days and should be extremely motivated to get back on track. Give me the Pirates -18.5!

9* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: St Louis Billikens -3

I'll take my chances with St Louis as a slim 3-point favorite against Maryland as the two teams face off in Connecticut in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. I just think there's value here with the Billikens at this price. Both teams are off to a 3-0 start, which I think is playing into the short number. Thing is, Maryland has beat up on a bunch of bad teams, beating Niagara, W Carolina and Binghamton. All 3 of those teams rank outside the top 250 at KenPom. 

This is also a Maryland team that figures to struggle against the better teams this year. The Terps lost their two best players (Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala) from last year's team and they went just 15-17 with a 7-13 mark in Big Ten play in 2021. 

As for St Louis, this team is loaded going into the 2022 season. The Billikens returned their top 4 scorers from last year's 23-win team. They have really looked the part early on, beating Murray State 91-68 and most recently Memphis 90-84. Murray State is currently ranked No. 125 at KenPom and Memphis is 29th. Give me the Billikens -3!

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: George Mason -3.5

I will gladly lay the 3.5-points with George Mason as they take on Boston College in the Virgin Islands for the Paradise Jam event. The Patriots had a tall task to start the year, opening the season on the road against Auburn. They hung around with the Tigers for a bit, but would eventually lose 52-70. They have since rebounded with wins and covers against Longwood and American. I really think this is a sneaky team in the A-10 this year, as they got 3 legit scorers who can carry the load. 

On the flip side of this, I'm way down on this Boston College team. The Eagles are also 2-1, but their wins are not impressive. They beat Cornell 79-77, who is ranked 205th. They also beat Detroit by a score of just 70-66 and they are ranked 227th. The loss is a bad one, as they fell 64-69 at home to 343rd ranked Maine as a 20.5-point favorite. No question this team was way overvalued coming into the season. They have gone from being ranked 74th at KenPom to 105th. Give me George Mason -3.5! 

8* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Sam Houston State +10.5

I'll take my chances with the Bearkats as a 10.5-point dog against Utah in the Fort Myers Tip-Off. I'm just not quite understanding all the love for the Utes in this game. Yes, Utah is 3-0, but they should be given they have played LIU, Cal St. Bakersfield and Idaho St. Those are 3 AWFUL offensive teams. LIU ranks 349th in AdjOE, Cal St Bakersfield ranks 331st and Idaho St sits at 353rd. 

Sam Houston State has beaten two cupcakes (non-DI) opponents in their last two games, but they also went on the road and upset Oklahoma 52-51 as a 16.5-point dog in their opener. 

Utah has not had super senior Marco Anthony, who was their 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder from last year's 11-20 team. He's listed as questionable, so there's a good chance he won't be available for this game. I just think this Bearkats team is better than they get credit for and one that could be in the NCAA Tournament come March. Give me Sam Houston St +10.5! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: VCU -3.5

I'll take my chances with VCU covering the 3.5-point spread against Pittsburgh. I just think this Panthers team came into this season way overvalued and are still way overvalued. KenPom had Pitt ranked as the 84th best team in the country coming into the year. Now they are 121st. Their two losses have come against Top 50 teams in W Virginia and Michigan, but they weren't competitive in either of those games, losing by 25 to the Mountaineers and by 31 to the Wolverines. Their only win is against Tennessee-Martin, who is ranked 317th and they shot just 37% from the field in that win. 

VCU also lost last night, falling 59-63 to Arizona State. It was a game the Rams had a double-digit lead in with less than 10 minutes to play in the 2nd half. Don't get me wrong it's not a team I'm crazy about, but the Panthers rank 236th in effective FG% on offense and 247th in that same stat on defense. Give me VCU -3.5! 

10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils PK

I'll take my chances with Duke as a Pick'em against Kansas in Tuesday's big Top 10 showdown in Indianapolis. I think there's some value with the Blue Devils to start the year, as people are a little hesitant to fully back this team without Coach K on the sideline. I don't see Duke slipping at all this year. Not with the amazing young talent they have brought in. 

As for the Jayhawks, I think they are a bit overvalued coming into the 2022-23 season after winning it all last year. Kansas lost three starters and give key contributors from last year's team, including a couple of first round picks. Yes, they added in some nice transfers and some great freshmen of their own, but I just like what I've seen out of Duke a little more in the first couple games of the season. Blue Devils will be out to make a statement in this one. Give me Duke PK! 

8* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Richmond Spiders -3.5

I will take my chances with Richmond as 3.5-point road favorite against Charleston. The Spiders lost some key pieces from last year's 24-win team, but have a lot more talent coming back than people think. I also liked what they did in the transfer portal. They took care of business in their opener, beating UNI 68-55 as a 6.5-point home favorite. 

As for Charleston, they only returned 1 starter from last year's team that went just 17-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA. The Cougars are also in what I think is a letdown spot, just two days removed from playing UNC on the road. Charleston lost by 16, but they put up a fight in a bit of a track meet, as the Tar Heels won 102-86. This is also a team that has not looked good defensively. They let UNC shoot 60.3% from the field and in their opener against UT-Chattanooga they let them shoot 49.2% from the field. Give me Richmond -3.5! 

8* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Iowa State Cyclones -18

I will take my chances with Iowa State as a 18-point home favorite against North Carolina A&T. No question the Cyclones lost a lot from last year's Sweet 16 team, but I'm not expecting any kind of regression from ISU this year. I love their head coach TJ Otzelberger, who did a remarkable coaching job last year. People forget that the Cyclones had just 2 wins the previous year. As for the talent lost, they more than made up for it in the transfer portal, adding some of the best players out of the A-10 to combine with the nice pieces they had coming back. We just saw this North Carolina A&T team lose by 41 points at Iowa on Friday. Its really not asking much for ISU to win here by 20+ at home. Give me the Cyclones -18! 

8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Richmond -7.5

I got no problem laying single digits with Richmond at home against Northern Iowa. Both of these teams are coming off great seasons. The Spiders went 24-13, while the Panthers finished 20-12. Both lose some real key pieces from last year, but the losses will be felt much more for UNI, who has to replace 4 starters, including Missouri Valley Player of the Year A.J. Green. They have just two kids on their roster that are more than a sophomore and both have barely played in their tenure. 

Richmond has just two starters back, but both of those are good players in Tyler Burton and Andre Gustavson. They also have much better young talent ready to step up and unlike UNI they added some good players in the portal. 

Don't be fooled by UNI's 50+ point win over Wartburg in their opener. That's an awful non-DI opponent. Give me Richmond -7.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Florida Atlantic Owls +6.5

I'll take my chances with FAU as a 6.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Friday. I think the Owls got a shot of winning this game outright. Ole Miss looks to still be in rebuilding mode. They only returned 3 starters from last year's 13-win team and one of those is star sophomore guard Deashun Ruffin, who didn't play in their opener Monday and figures to still be out as he continues to work his way back from ACL surgery last Feb. 

As for FAU, they figure to be one of the top teams in C-USA this year. The Owls have 4 starters back from a team that won 19 games last year. They have a really good backcourt duo with Alijah Martin and Michael Forrest. This is also a team that really gets after you on defense. Ole Miss shot just 37.3% from the field at home in their opener against Alcorn State. Give me FAU +6.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Cincinnati Bearcats -22

I'll take my chances with Cincinnati covering as 22-point home favorites against Cleveland State. I don't think the number here is near enough given the mismatch on the floor and at head coach. The Bearcats only two significant losses from last year were Abdul Ado and Mike Saunders Jr., who combined only averaged 9.7 ppg. They get back their star in senior guard David DeJulius and added in Memphis transfer Landers Nolley II to give them another scorer, something they desperately needed last year. This is also a team that is built on defense, behind second year head coach Wes Miller. 

They should have their way with a Cleveland State team that lost 3 starters, who were really their entire offense. The Vikings 3 starters lost combined to average 39.7 ppg (all 3 in double-figures). Cleveland State also lost head coach Dennis Gates and replaced him with Daniyal Robinson, who has no head coaching experience. I think we saw the writing on the wall for this team in their opener, which they lost outright 68-72 to Notre Dame (OH). Give me the Bearcats -22! 

8* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Southern Illinois +9

I'll take my chances with the Salukis catching 9-points on the road against Oklahoma State. I think this Southern Illinois team has a chance to be at or near the top of the MVC this season. It's as deep and as talented as a team the Salukis have had in what is now year four under head coach Bryan Mullins. They got two of the top 3 returning scorers in the MVC back from last year and added in some really nice transfers. Their bench had over 50 points in their opener, which they won 94-63 over Little Rock as a mere 15-point favorite. 

As for Oklahoma State, they didn't impress me at all in their opener, sneaking out a 77-66 win at home against UT-Arlington. Something that really has to raise eyebrows given the Mavericks didn't have a single returning starter from a team that went just 11-18 last season. Keep in mind they only won by 11-points with UT-Arlington shooting just 35.6% from the field. I really think Southern Illinois has a shot in this game. Give me the Salukis +9! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Rider Broncs +13.5

I'll take my chances with Rider catching 13.5-points on the road against the Friars. This to me has the making of a potential upset. Providence lost a ton from last year's team that won the Big East regular season title and went on to advance to the Sweet 16. Just 3 players return who were with the program from last year. They lost 4 guys who averaged 10 or more points per game. Rider on the other hand is an experienced team with 4 starters back and should be a serious player for the top spot in the MAAC this year. I just think given all the new faces for Providence, we could see this team struggle a bit to start the year. This is also a Friars team that was extremely fortunate in close games a season ago, which is very hard to sustain from one season to the next. Give me the Broncs +13.5! 

8* NCAAB Opening Night ATS SHOCKER: George Mason +12.5

I'll take my chances with George Mason as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 15 ranked Auburn. Until they show me otherwise, the Tigers are a team I'll be looking to fade early on this season. This team lost a lot inside with the departures of Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler. Combined the two averaged 29.3 ppg and 15.5 rpg. There's also a chance Johni Broome will be sidelined with an ankle injury. Allen Flanigan, Jaylin Williams and Jalen Harper are all also questionable to play with an illness. As for the Patriots, I think this is a team that could surprise in the A-10 this year. Give me George Mason +12.5! 

10* NCAAB Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR: Ohio Bobcats +5.5

I'll take my chances with Ohio as a 5.5-point road dog against Belmont. This is nowhere close to the Bruins team that went 25-8 last year. Belmont lost a ton from last year's team. They get back their top scorer in Ben Sheppard, but the next 8 top scorers have all departed. This team does recruit and develop talent well, but I expect some early season struggles, especially in the betting market. Ohio technically only gets two starters back from last year, but big man Dwight Wilson III is alo returning from a knee injury that kept him out last year. Expect a very competitive game and one Ohio very well may win going away. Give me the Bobcats +5.5! 

50* (CBB) - N Carolina/Kansas CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Vegas Insider (Kansas -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances laying the 4-points with KU against UNC. It was a bad play by me to back Villanova on Saturday. I won't make the same mistake on Monday. As great as UNC has been down the stretch, the Jayhawks are the more talented team and in the much better spot coming out of Saturday's Final Four matchups. 

I get it's the title game, but I just feel it's going to be really hard for Duke to bounce back after that emotional win over Duke. That was one of the more hyped games I can remember and it was a dogfight from start to finish. 

I also don't think enough is being made of Bacot's injury late in that win over the Blue Devils. He's going to play, but he's likely not going to be 100%. He's been a difference maker for the Tar Heels. I just think they really need him to be great to keep this close enough to cover. Give me the Jayhawks -4!

50* (CBB) N Carolina/Duke MAX UNIT Top Play (Duke -4)

I'll gladly take my chances with Duke laying the 4 against UNC. I really like this Tar Heels team, but I think they are going to have a tough time just making a game of it. I know UNC went on the road and beat Duke 94-81 in Coach K's final home game. 

That to me was more a product of the Blue Devils not handling the emotions that came with that game. I think it was of a blessing in disguise, as I think it prepared this team for what was to come in this NCAA Tournament. 

I think we are going to see something more along the lines of when these teams first played. Duke won that game 87-67 in Chapel Hill and it was even worse than the finale score indicates. The Blue Devils are simply the better team and I feel this is a discount with all the love UNC is getting. Duke was -11 in that home finale, which means they would have been around a 7.5-8 point favorite on a neutral. Give me the Blue Devils -4! 

40* (CBB) - Villanova/Kansas VEGAS INSIDER (Villanova +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with Villanova catching the 4.5 against Kansas. Not many are giving the Wildcats a shot here after losing Justin Moore to an Achilles injury in their Elite 8 win over Houston. No question it's a big loss, but it has clearly been baked into this number. Villanova beat UConn by double-digits in the one game Moore missed during the regular season. 

They still got Gillespie running the show and you know they are going to slow this game down as much as they can. I think it's going to be really frustrating for Kansas on the offensive side of the ball, especially if they aren't hitting from deep early. I think it's going to lead to the Jayhawks pressing a bit and ultimately resulting in this game coming right down to the wire. Give me Villanova +4.5! 

40* (CBB) St. Peter's/UNC ATS NO-BRAINER (UNC -8)

I'll take my chances with N Carolina as a 8-point favorite. It's been a remarkable run for the Peacocks. They have made it further than any No. 15 seed before them. I just think the magic stops here. It's hard for these Cinderella stories to keep it going. We kind of saw that yesterday, with Duke and Villanova really dominating from start to finish. 

Some might call UNC a bit of a Cinderella, but this is a team that was extremely undervalued coming into the tournament. Largely due to the lack of respect the entire ACC conference was getting. Tar Heels have been playing great basketball for two months now. 

One big difference between UNC and St. Peter's first 3 opponents is the Tar Heels like to really push the tempo and get their offense going in transition. It's exactly what you need to do against the Peacocks, given how good they are in the half court defense. Those other teams playing at St Peter's tempo really is what allowed them to pull off the upset. UNC is just going to be too much for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Give me the Tar Heels -8! 

50* (CBB) - Miami/Kansas Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER (Kansas -5.5) 

I'll lay the 5.5 with the Jayhawks against the Hurricanes. I like this Miami team, but I just feel this is a horrible matchup for the Hurricane. Miami's defense has played great in their first 3 games of the tournament against USC, Auburn and Iowa St. Those offenses aren't close to what they will see from Kansas. You also can't ignore this is a Hurricanes defense that is ranked No. 114 in defensive efficiency. 

I also think people sleep on how good this Jayhawks defense is. They are ranked No. 23 in adjusted defense. I also think KU is going to really exploit the Hurricanes on the offensive glass and at the 3-point line. If the Jayhawks can take care of the ball like they have the last two games (7 turnovers vs Creighton & only 10 vs Providence), this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Kansas -5.5! 

50* (CBB) - Elite 8 (Sat) MAX UNIT Top Play (Houston -2.5) 

I'll take my chances with Houston as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Villanova for the right to go the Final Four. No one seems to want to take a stand with the Cougars. No one has really been talking about them being the team that could win it all and I'm not sure why. 

Houston is now 32-5 with 3 of those 5 losses by 2 or fewer points. They were absolutely dominant in the AAC Tournament, beating Cincinnati by 13, Tulane by 20 and Memphis by 18. In the NCAA Tournament they crushed UAB by 14, beat Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12. 

It wouldn't surprise me if they made it 7 straight wins by double-digits. I just don't love this Villanova team like some others. I think they have really benefited from a favorable schedule in the NCAA Tournament. They have had to face Delaware, Ohio St and Michigan. Give me the Cougars -2.5! 

40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (FrI) ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with Iowa State as a 2.5-point dog against the Hurricanes. I've been wrong on the Cyclones. I didn't see them winning either of their first two games against LSU or Wisconsin. I'm not going to make that same mistake with them again against Miami. 

ISU is now 15-0 outside of Big 12 play with wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa, LSU and Wisconsin. I think that speaks volumes to just how much teams aren't ready for the pressure they bring on the defensive side of the ball. I expect them to give the Hurricanes a lot of problems and find a way to get just enough offense to advance to the Elite 8. Give me the Cyclones +2.5! 

40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (Fri) NO-BRAINER (Providence +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Friars as a 7.5-point dog against Kansas in Friday's Sweet 16 matchup. The Jayhawks are a very good and talented team, but they are not invincible. No team is in this tournament, which is why a lot of the top seeds have fallen. We just saw two No. 1 seeds lose last night. 

Providence has been greatly undervalued all year. This team might not win pretty, but they win and they are not afraid of the moment in a close game down the stretch. I think they got the defense to give the Jayhawks problems and enough offense to win this game outright. Give me the Friars +7.5! 

50* (CBB) - Sweet 16 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech -1) 

I will gladly lay the 1-point with Texas Tech in their Sweet 16 showdown with Duke. I really wonder if we didn't know this was Coach K's last season, if people would view the Blue Devils a little differently. 

They just haven't been very sharp down the stretch. You have to wonder if all the pressure of feeling like they have to win it all for Coach K isn't getting to them. They really should have lost in the Round of 32 to a pretty average Michigan State team. 

I just think Texas Tech is the vastly better team. Duke hasn't seen a team that plays defense defense like the Red Raiders. No one in the ACC finished in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency. Even Michigan State, who they had some problems with only ranks No. 67 in that department. Texas Tech is No. 1. Give me the Red Raiders -1! 

40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (Thurs) VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas +9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Razorbacks as a 9.5-point dog against Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. I just think this is way too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying. It feels like the narrative after nearly getting knocked out in their last game by Memphis is that was the close-call the Bulldogs needed. Now they are going to just roll to the title. 

I'm not buying it. This is a very good Gonzaga team, but they are far from invincible. Arkansas is also no pushover. While the rest of  the SEC has flamed out of the NCAA Tournament, you could argue no team was playing better than the Razorbacks in that conference the last couple months of the season. 

I think you need to be a strong defensive team to compete with Gonzaga. Arkansas is definitely that. Razorbacks finished No. 14 in the country in defensive efficiency. If they can get a guy or two to get hot from the outside, they not only can keep it close, but win this game outright. Give me Arkansas +9.5! 

40* (CBB) - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (TCU +10) 

I'll take my chances with TCU as a double-digit dog against Arizona. Much like with Memphis last night in the final game against No. 1 Gonzaga, I think we got a dog that is much better than the perception and a overvalued No. 1 seed. 

You just can't overreact to some of these Big 12 records because of just how good this conference was top to bottom. West Virginia finished last at 4-14 and are still the No. 66 ranked team at KenPom. In TCU's last 7 games they have wins over Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas and Thursday's blowout win over Seton Hall. 

All the pressure is on the Wildcats, as no one is giving the Horned Frogs a shot here. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they did. Give me TCU +10! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Miami +7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Hurricanes as a 7.5-point underdog against Auburn. I think the ACC has come into this tournament extremely undervalued. UNC is already in the Sweet 16 after upsetting No. 1 seed Baylor and 3 more have a shot to join them today. That includes No. 11 seed Notre Dame, who won a 2OT play-in game on Wednesday against Indiana and then two days later beat No. 6 Alabama by 14 points. 

Miami was right there with Duke, UNC and Notre Dame as the top dog in the ACC. The Hurricanes have really done nothing but impress since Dec. 1. They finished 14-6 in ACC play with 5 of the 6 losses coming by 4-points or fewer. They also lost by just 4-points to Duke in the ACC Tournament. 

Auburn is a good team, but far from invincible. They started out really slow in their win over Jacksonville State and were certainly not their sharpest down the stretch. In their 4 games leading up to the tournament, they lost at Tennessee, needed OT to win at Miss St, only beat S Carolina by 11 at home and then lost to Texas A&M in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Would not surprise me at all if Miami won. Give me the Hurricanes +7.5! 

50* (CBB) - Round of 32 PLAY OF THE TOURNAMENT (Wisconsin -4.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Badgers at -4.5 against Iowa State. I know Wisconsin hasn't exactly impressed of late, losing their regular-season finale to Nebraska to prevent an outright Big Ten title, falling to Michigan St in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament and then barely getting by Colgate in the 1st round. 

I think it has people forgetting what this team has accomplished this year. As long as Johnny Davis is healthy, this team can beat anyone left in the field. Davis did get hurt against Nebraska, but he had 25 points in the game against Colgate. 

I also think Wisconsin matches up extremely well with ISU. The Cyclones are a team that relies on their defense, because there's not a lot of good options offensively. The best thing their defense does is force turnovers. They ranked No. 4 in the country in defensive TO%. They were just No. 217 in defensive 2-PT%, so when teams didn't turn it over they often got easy baskets. No team was better than the Badgers at protecting the ball. They are No. 1 in offensive TO%. 

Unless the Cyclones are hitting shots, and hitting a lot of them, I think it will be extremely difficult for them to keep this within single-digits. Give me Wisconsin -4.5! 

40* (CBB) - Late Night ATS MASSACRE (Memphis +10.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Tigers as a 10.5-point dog against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs should not be laying double-digits in this one. Memphis was a different team in the second half of the season. They ranked in the Top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency after that slow start. The one thing that has really hurt Memphis is turnovers and that doesn't figure to be a huge problem in this game. One thing that Gonzaga's defense doesn't do well is force turnovers. The Bulldogs ranked just No. 281 in defensive turnover %. I think that's going to allow the Tigers to make a game of it and possibly even pull off the upset. Give me Memphis +10.5! 

50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -6) 

I got no problem laying 6-points with the Vols against the Wolverines. I really think Tennessee has the goods to win the whole thing and I just don't see them having any problem beating up on an overrated Michigan team. The Wolverines are a good offensive team, but they are going up against maybe the best defense in the country. Tennessee gives you know easy looks and have the guys down low to really negate Michigan's go-to guy in Hunter Dickinson. 

On the flip side, Michigan doesn't really have the good to slow down this Vols offense. Wolverines are one of the worst teams in the country in forcing turnovers (No. 336) and they give up way to many easy shots (No. 206 in 2-Pt% defense). Give me the Vols -6! 

40* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn VEGAS INSIDER (LSU -4) 

I'll take my chances with LSU as a 4-point favorite against Iowa State. The Cyclones caught everyone's attention with their perfect 12-0 start in non-conference play, which included wins over Xavier, Creighton, Iowa and Memphis. 

While they were far from a pushover in the Big 12, they did open up conference play just 3-9 before a 4-game winning streak saved their season, though they did finish just 7-11 in the Big 12 (5 of the 7 wins by 4 or fewer points). 

I know LSU has lost their coach and didn't live up to their own hype in the SEC this year, but I still think they are the far more talented team. The Tigers have a superstar in Tari Eason and a team that finished the season ranked No. 5 in the country defensive efficiency. I really think having a go-to-guy against ISU is big and having a good defense is also big with how much ISU struggles to score the basketball. Give me the Tigers -4! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech +1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Hokies as a 1.5-point dog against the Longhorns on Friday. Few teams come into the tournament riding a bigger wave of momentum than Virginia Tech. The Hokies were arguably on the outside looking in to the field of 68 when the ACC Tournament started last week. 

They took any doubt out of the equation by winning 4 games in 4 days with the last 3 coming against teams in the field this weekend in Notre Dame (87-80), UNC (72-59) and Duke (82-67). 

Keep in mind the strong play goes back further than that tournament, as they won 9 of their last 11 in the regular-season. 

As for Texas, I've never really thought they were as good as what people thought and they have zero momentum coming in after losing their final two regular-season games and then falling to TCU in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament. Give me Virginia Tech +1.5! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn ATS SLAUGHTER (Alabama -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Alabama as a 3.5-point favorite against Notre Dame. I would have liked the Crimson Tide at this price if this was a set first round matchup when the brackets came out on Sunday. 

So it's easy to like them given that Notre Dame had to play Wednesday in a play-in game against Rutgers. A game that had to take every ounce of energy the Irish had, as it went to double-overtime. That's a lot of extra minutes for a team that really only uses a 6-man rotation. Add in the long flight to San Diego right after that game and I just don't think the Irish will have near enough to be competitive in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -3.5! 

50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn MAX UNIT Top Play (Purdue -16.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number with the Boilermakers on Friday. Purdue might not have won the Big Ten regular-season or Tournament title, but I still think they are the most talented team out of that conference. They got a difference maker at point guard in Jaden Ivey and two imposing big men in Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. 

Yale simply doesn't have the size to compete with the Boilermakers. The Bulldogs have just two guys taller than 6-5 that get minutes and that's 6-7 Isaiah Kelly and 6-8 E.J. Purdue is going to have a field day inside, which is going to lead to wide open looks from deep. Yale lost by 36 to Seton Hall, by 22 to Auburn and by 17 to St Mary's in non-conference. Give me Purdue -16.5! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn Late Night SLAUGHTER (San Francisco +2) 

I'll take my chances with San Francisco catching 2-points against Murray State. Everyone is picking the Racers in this matchup and while I think Murray State is a good team, I'm not as high on them. 

Going undefeated in conference play and backing it up with a conference tournament title is impressive, but the Ohio Valley is also a really bad conference other than Belmont. Of the 9 other teams in the league, 7 rank 240th or worse in KenPoms rankings. 

Yes they beat Memphis in non-conference, but the Tigers weren't a very good team early in the year. The only Power 5 team they played was Auburn and they lost that game by 13 and it wasn't that close. They railed by 21 with 2.5 mins to play before going on a meaningless run late to make it look respectable. 

I think San Francisco has the better resume and are much more battle-tested going into the NCAA Tournament. Give me the Dons +2!  

40* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas -5)

I'll gladly take my chances with Arkansas as a mere 5-point favorite against Vermont. The Catamounts are a sexy upset pick and I'm just not buying it. Vermont was the best team in a bad America East Conference. They went 17-1 in league play with the next best team going 11-7.

In their two non-conference games against Power 5 teams they lost by 10 at Providence and by 9 at Maryland. I don't think either of those teams are close to anywhere as good as this Razorbacks team. Their 64-82 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament looks bad, but it doesn't cover up the fact that they went 15-3 over their final 18 games with the two other losses by 4 on the road to Tennessee and by 1 at Alabama. Give me the Razorbacks -5! 

50* (CBB) - Thursday 1st Rd MAX UNIT Top Play (North Carolina -3.5) 

I got zero problem laying the 3.5 with the Tar Heels against Marquette. I really think people are sleeping on this North Carolina team. After starting the year just 12-6 with a 4-3 mark in ACC play, they closed out the season winning 12 of their final 15. 

One of the things that I think is keeping them under the radar is the fact their 59-72 loss in the ACC Tournament to Va Tech. What people ignore is just how good the Hokies have been playing. They followed up that win with a 82-67 victory against Duke in the title game. 

Marquette has some nice wins and were able to hang with some good teams early on non-conference play. The problem is they weren't able to sustain it and actually played much worse down the stretch. Golden Eagles went just 4-6 over their final 10, including an ugly 63-74 loss to Creighton in their only game of the Big East Tournament. Give me North Carolina -3.5! 

40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn Early Bird MASSACRE (Colorado St +1.5) 

I'll take my chances with Colorado State as a small dog against Michigan early on Thursday. I'm just not a big believer in this Wolverines team. They never played up to their potential and losing their head coach Juwan Howard to a suspension to close out the regular-season did them no favors. They never won more than 3 games in a row all season. 

Colorado State finished 2nd in a very good Mountain West Conference that sent 4 teams to the tournament. They only lost 5 times all season and closed out the year winning 9 of their last 11. They also showed they can hang in non-conference, beating the likes of Creighton by 14 and St. Mary's by 16. Wouldn't shock me at all if they won by double-digits here. Give me the Rams +1.5!

40* (CBB) - Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Florida -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with Florida as a 6.5-point favorite over Iona in the NIT. The public really likes to get behind this Gaels team, largely because of Rick Pitino being their head coach. He certainly did some good things with Iona this year, but I think the Gaels will have a tough time showing up in this game. 

The NIT is not where Iona expected to be playing this week. The Gaels had to feel like they were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament after cruising the MAAC regular-season title, finishing a full 3-games ahead of runner-up St. Peter's. Those NCAA Tournament hopes came crashing to the ground, as Iona was stunned in their first game of the MAAC Tournament by Rider, who went off as a double-digit dog. Florida might not have been up to their standards this year, but they are without question the more talented and athletic team in this matchup. Give me the Gators -6.5! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (UNI +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with Northern Iowa as a 4.5-point dog in Wednesday's NIT matchup with St. Louis. The Panthers had quite the turnaround this year. UNI started the season just 4-7 before flipping a switch and going 14-4 in MVC play, winning the outright regular-season title over a very good Loyola-Chicago team. 

The Panthers did get routed by the Ramblers in the rubber match during the MVC Tournament, but that shouldn't keep them from being motivated to put on a good showing in the NIT. No disrespect to St Louis, but I think this line should be closer to a pick'em, making this a big time value play for me. Give me the Panthers +4.5! 

50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn Play-In ATS NO-BRAINER (Indiana -3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Indiana as a mere 3.5-point favorite against Wyoming in Tuesday's Play-In game. The Hoosiers caught fire in the Big Ten Tournament, upsetting Michigan and Illinois before a hard-fought loss to one of the hottest teams in the conference in Iowa, who went on to beat Purdue for the title the next day. 

Some might say that Wyoming doesn't belong in the field of 68. I think the do, but I also think they are outmatched and outclassed in this one. The Cowboys were very competitive in a strong Mountain West Conference this year, but their only Power 5 win in non-conference play came in OT against a sub-par Washington team. They also lost to a very mediocre Stanford team and got annihilated by 94-65 by Arizona. 

Look for Indiana's defense and Wyoming's inability to force turnovers (ranked #316 in defensive TO%) to be the difference. Cowboys ranked just 218 in 3-PT% and face a Hoosiers defense that was No. 7 in the country in 2-PT% defense. Give me Indiana -3.5! 

40* (CBB) - NIT Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Missouri State +6) 

I'll take my chances with Missouri State as a 6-point dog against Oklahoma in Tuesday's NIT action. The Sooners may be saying that they are going to prove the committee wrong for not including them in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not buying it. 

I think this Oklahoma team was completely devastated not getting into the Big Dance and will have a really tough time getting up for this game. It doesn't help they are playing a pesky Missouri State team that closed out the regular-season going 18-5 and were an OT loss to Drake in the MVC semis from making the title game. Give me the Bears +6! 

40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas A&M -6.5) 

I'll take my chances with Texas A&M as a 6.5-point dog against Tennessee in the SEC Title game. The Aggies have caught fire at the right time. Much like we saw in the ACC with Virginia Tech catching fire and riding that momentum to an ACC Tournament title. 

Aggies started it off with a OT win against Florida on Thursday, got by Auburn on Friday and then rolled Arkansas on Saturday. Add that to their 5-1 finish in SEC play, they are now 8-1 in their last 9. 

The work is not done, as they must-win this game to get in the NCAA Tournament, which I think clearly makes them the more motivated team. Tennessee is in no matter what and likely no worse than #3 seed, even if they lose. You also have the Vols coming off a huge win over Kentucky, which I think could set them up to come out a bit flat. Give me Texas A&M +6.5! 

50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kentucky -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Wildcats as a 2-point favorite against the Vols in Saturday's SEC Semifinal matchup. I think Kentucky is right there with Gonzaga and Arizona as one of the best teams in the country and will be highly motivated to get this win and lock up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Not only that, but the Wildcats will be out for revenge from a 63-76 loss at Tennessee back on Feb. 15. Big thing to keep in mind with that loss is just how good the Vols are at home. Tennessee went 16-0 at home this year. Even with their win over Miss St yesterday, they are just 8-7 on the road. 

Kentucky beat the Vols 107-79 at home in the first meeting and while I don't think it will be that lopsided on a neutral site, I wouldn't be shocked if the Wildcats took complete control of this game early on. Give me Kentucky -2! 

50* (CBB) - Va Tech/N Carolina MAX UNIT Top Play (N Carolina -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Tar Heels as a slim 2-point favorite in Friday's Semifinal matchup against Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. UNC might be the best team in the country that people don't talk about. The Tar Heels got off to a pretty mediocre start, going just 12-6 overall and 4-3 in ACC, but have won 12 of their last 14 since and followed up that big upset of Duke in the regular-season finale with a 63-43 blowout win over Virginia yesterday. 

The Hokies have also been surging down the stretch, winning 11 of their last 13, but a lot of that was the schedule just really getting easy for them in the 2nd half of ACC play. I just think they are outmatched and going to struggle to keep pace playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Give me the Tar Heels -2! 

40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (VCU -3.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with VCU as a 3.5-point favorite against Richmond in Friday's Quarterfinal matchup in the A-10 Tournament. The Rams to me are a very underrated team. While they didn't have a signature non-conference win, they did lose by just 8 on a neutral court to Baylor and in OT on a neutral to UConn. 

VCU closed out the season winning 11 of their last 13 games and should be motivated here after dropping their regular-season finale at St. Louis. The other big thing is rest, which the Rams have a big edge in. VCU had a bye yesterday, while Richmond had to play Rhode Island. The Spiders won that game 64-59, but had to use a ton of energy to rally from a 15-point 2nd half deficit. I don't think there's going to be enough gas in the tank to keep pace with VCU tonight. Give me the Rams -3.5! 

40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Providence -3) 

I'll take my chances with Providence as a 3-point favorite against Creighton in Friday's Semifinal matchup in the Big East Tournament. This Friars team has simply not gotten the respect they deserve. Yes, they are ranked No. 11 in the country, but no one talks about this team as having a real shot of doing something in the Big Dance. Which is crazy for a team that has lost just 4 times all season and has non-conference wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Texas Tech. 

I think it has kept Providence motivated and undervalued on the betting market. I just don't think 3-points is near enough here. The Friars rolled Creighton by 21 a couple weeks ago and I think that speaks to the matchup advantage that Providence has here. Great win for the Bluejays yesterday against Marquette, but not enough for me to think they got a real shot in this game. Give me Providence -3! 

40* (CBB) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (Iowa St +8) 

I'll take my chances with Iowa State as a 8-point dog against Texas Tech on Thursday. I can't say I love the Cyclones to win this game, but that's not saying they can't. I just think 8 is way too much for a team as talented as the Cyclones. 

Iowa State is a tricky team because of how much variability there is with their shooting. They make shots they can beat any team in the country and that's evident with all their quad 1 wins this year. 

I also think the Cyclones 68-75 loss to Baylor in the finale was a big boost to this team, as they somehow managed to take multiple leads after trailing 29-4 with 7:53 on the clock in the 1st half. Give me Iowa State +8! 

50* (CBB) - Sharp Money ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame +1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Notre Dame as a 1.5-point dog against Va Tech. I don't understand why the Hokies are favored in this game. I get Va Tech closed out the season strong, winning 9 of their last 11, but they lost their finale at Clemson, who isn't very good and then needed a 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Clemson 76-75 in OT in yesterday's first round action. 

Keep in mind that Notre Dame had a bye on Wednesday, so they have a big edge here in rest as well. I just don't think the Hokies will have enough gas in the tank here, as they are not a deep team (only played 8 guys yesterday with 4 of the 8 playing 33+ minutes. Give me the Fighting Irish +1.5! 

40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Texas as a 5.5-point favorite against TCU in the Big 12 Tournament. The Longhorns should be extremely motivated after losing their last 2 games to close out the season. Not that they were bad losses, as they lost by just 7 at home to Baylor and in OT on the road at Kansas. 

You have to go back to a Jan. 18 loss at home to K-State to find the last time Texas lost to a team not named Baylor, Kansas or Texas Tech. Longhorns won 73-50 at TCU in the first meeting between these teams. While they only won by 9 in the second meeting at home, they outscored the Horned Frogs by 19 in the final 13 minutes of that game and managed to win by 9 despite only shooting 1 of 14 on 3-pointers. 

Another thing that stands out to me is they attempted 50 free throws in their two games vs TCU, while the Horned Frogs only attempted 23. They also were +12 in turnovers in those 2 games. Give me the Longhorns -5.5! 

50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Nebraska +4.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with Nebraska as a 4.5-point dog in Wednesday's first round action in the Big Ten Tournament. It's hard to explain what's transpired in Lincoln over the last couple weeks, but this team goes into the Big Ten Tournament thinking they got a chance. 

Nebraska closed out the regular-season with a 74-73 win on the road against Wisconsin and did so without one of their best players in Bryce McGowens. That's after they upset Ohio State (78-70) and Penn State (93-70) in their previous 2 games. 

Head coach Fred Hoiberg seems to have figured something out with this team and he sounded pretty optimistic that McGowens would suit up for this game. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Cornhuskers to carry over that late season momentum to Indianapolis. Give me Nebraska +4.5! 

40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER (Florida St -1) 

I'll take my chances with the Seminoles as a slim 1-point home favorite against Syracuse in Thursday's second round action of the ACC Tournament. Florida State ended the regular-season with 3 straight wins, beating Virginia on the road 64-63, knocking off Notre Dame at home 74-70 and taking down NC State 89-76 in the finale. 

In their last game against NC State, the Seminoles got back a huge piece to their team in sophomore guard Caleb Mills. He scored 19 points in just 18 minutes of play. Mills had list the last 5 and with him on the floor they are hands down the better team in this one. 

While Florida State was surging down the stretch, Syracuse ended the season losing 4 in a row. They just don't look like the same team after losing junior big man Jesse Edwards. He missed the final 7 games and they went just 2-5, with one of those wins a 1-point OT win at home against Georgia Tech. The other win against a sub-par team in BC. Give me Florida State -1! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Nebraska +12.5)

I'll take my chances with Nebraska as a 12.5-point road dog against the Badgers. While it's way too late to matter, the Cornhuskers seem to have flipped a switch and really figured something out. It started with a near upset of Iowa at home. They then went on the road and destroyed Penn State 93-70 in the Nittany Lions home finale and followed that up with a 78-70 win on the road against Ohio State. 

I don't know if they can keep it going and win this game outright on the road at Wisconsin, but I do think the spot sets up really nice for them. The big reason for that is the game just doesn't mean that much to the Badgers, who locked up the Big Ten regular-season title and No.1 seed in the Big Ten tournament with Tuesday's 70-67 home win over Purdue. 

For Nebraska it's just another chance for them to test themselves and how far they have come by facing off against the best team (at least record wise) in the Big Ten. Give me the Cornhuskers +12.5! 

50* (CBB) - SEC Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -2) 

I really love the price here with Texas A&M as a mere 2-point home favorite against Mississippi State. There's a few factors in play that I really like in this matchup. The biggest and most obvious is the home/away splits for these two teams. The Aggies are 12-4 at home this season, while the Bulldogs are a mere 3-10 away from home and just 1-8 in true road games (only win at Missouri by 2-points). 

The other big thing that I like in this matchup is fading Mississippi State after a gut-wrenching 68-81 loss at home to Auburn on Wednesday. The Bulldogs who were down by as many as 19-points in the 1st half, rallied to take the lead and had a lead as by as 5 with less than 7 minutes to play. I just don't think Miss St will be emotionally ready for this one on the road. 

Aggies are also a team surging down the stretch, as they come in having won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, covering the spread in all 4 wins, including a 87-71 outright win as a 10-point dog in their last game at Alabama. Give me Texas A&M -2! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (N Carolina +12)

I will gladly take my chances with the Tar Heels as a 12-point road dog against the Blue Devils. There's plenty being made of this being Coach K's last game against rival UNC and final regular-season home game. With that said, it doesn't have quite the build up as the first meeting in Chapel Hill. Largely because of the Blue Devils dominating that game in a 87-67 win. 

I just think that really makes UNC a dangerous team in the rematch, especially with Duke having already wrapped up the ACC regular-season title. I think it's one of those scenarios where the Blue Devils will almost be too jacked up to play well. 

There's also the number that's important here. North Carolina could not play great and still keep this thing within 12-points. As ugly as that first loss was to Duke, the Tar Heels are still 10-2 over their last 12 games with a 4-game winning streak. Give me North Carolina +12! 

40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Kansas St -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas State as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Sooners on Saturday. I just think this is the perfect buy-low spot on the Wildcats, who come into this game having lost 4 straight after winning 4 of their previous 5. It could be a much different story for K State, as 3 of the 4 losses during this skid have come by a combined 9 points (3 of the 4 were also on the road). 

Not only are the Wildcats going to be motivated to end their losing streak, they will want some revenge on the Sooners after a heartbreaking 69-71 loss in Norman earlier this season. It's also senior day for them with this being their last home game of the season. 

Oklahoma is also a team I have no problem fading on the road. The Sooners are just 4-9 away from home this season and their only true road win since December is a win at West Virginia, who sits last in the Big 12 with a 3-14 conference mark. Give me Kansas State -2! 

40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS MASSACRE (Dayton -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Dayton as a 3.5-point home favorite against Davidson. I know Davidson has the best record in the Atlantic 10, but this to me is just too good a price on the Flyers at home. Dayton is 12-4 on their home floor this year and most of those losses came early in the year. In fact, 3 of the 4 losses came in November. Their only loss at home in the last 3 months is a 52-53 setback against VCU. 

The other big thing is the Wildcats could potentially be playing without one of their best players in Foster Loyer, who has missed the last 4 games. Seems unlikely he will be able to play after just sitting out their game on Wednesday. With that said, I still like Dayton to win by 4 or more if he does end up playing. 

Flyers have played the last 2 on the road and that puts them in a really favorable spot. Dayton is 40-21 ATS at home after playing their previous game on the road. They are 15-4 ATS last 2 seasons after playing their previous game on the road and 6-0 ATS last 2 seasons after playing 2 road games in a row. Give me the Flyers -3.5! 

50* (CBB) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (St. Bonaventure -3.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with St. Bonaventure as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against Richmond on Friday. This is just too good a price to pass up on the Bonnies at home, where they are 12-2 SU this season. Especially in a spot where we should get a big time effort from St Bonaventure coming off an ugly 23-point loss at VCU earlier this week. 

It was only the third time this season the Bonnies have lost a conference game by 10 or more points and in each of the previous two instances the Bonnies came back in their next game and not only won outright but covered the spread. 

St. Bonaventure will also be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Richmond. Bonnies are 7-4 ATS last 3 seasons when revenging a road loss, with a 2-0 ATS mark this season. They are also 2-0 ATS this season when revenging a same season loss. Give me St. Bonaventure -3.5! 

40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (SMU -7.5) 

I go no problem laying the 7.5-points at home with SMU. According to ESPN's bracketology, the Mustangs are one of the last 4 teams left out of the field of 68. That's not to say the committee wouldn't have them in the field, but it's a pretty clear-cut sign that SMU can not afford to lose either of their last two games (both at home) against Cincinnati and Tulane. 

I just have a hard time seeing the Bearcats really wanting to play spoiler here. Cincinnati has lost 4 in a row and just played Tuesday at Houston after hosting USF on Saturday. So while it's their last game of the regular-season, it's hard to believe they will have a lot in the tank playing their 3rd game in 6 days. They would be better off resting up to try and make a run in the AAC tournament, because that's their only path to the NCAA Tournament. Give me SMU -7.5! 

40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma St +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point dog at Iowa State on Wednesday. The Cyclones have won 4 in a row after losing 4 straight. It didn't come easy, as 3 of the 4 wins were by 3 points or less. The big key is this team has found a way to get to 7 wins in conference play and hit the 20-win mark overall. Even if they lose this game and at Baylor in the finale, they are going to be in the Big Dance. 

Cowboys will  be out for revenge, as they suffered a heartbreaking 81-84 OT loss at home to ISU a little over a month ago.

Cyclones are 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and OSU is 11-5 ATS last 16 revenging a same season loss. Give me the Cowboys +4.5! 

50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Vandy PK) 

I love Vanderbilt at a Pick'em on the home floor against the Gators Tuesday. The Commodores have been a money-maker down the stretch. Vandy is 6-1-1 ATS over their last 8 games and I think we are getting a steal at this price. Florida has some nice wins at home, but are just 6-7 on the road this year and have gone just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games. 

Plenty of motivation for Vandy, as it will be their final home game of the season and a chance to end their season on a positive note after dropping 4 of their last 5. As for the Gators, their senior day is this Saturday against the likes of Kentucky. Hard to believe Florida won't have their eyes set on that game. Give me the Commodores PK! 

40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Richmond -2)

I'll take my chances with Richmond as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Flyers. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Spiders at home. Richmond is 11-3 on their home floor this season. 

Dayton just lost 60-62 at LaSalle last time out, which pretty much was the end of their hope of getting at least a share of the A-10 regular-season title. They are 2-games back of Davidson (also 1 back of VCU) with just 2 to play and the Wildcats host George Mason on Wednesday to wrap it up. Give me Richmond -2!

40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Texas +1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Texas as a 1.5-point home dog against Baylor. Upsets have been happening like crazy of late. Most of those upsets for the higher ranked teams are coming on the road. Baylor was one of those to do that, as they just beat Kansas at home on Saturday. 

I think we are going to see the Longhorns do the same thing on Monday. Texas is 16-2 on their home floor this season with one of those being a mere 3-point loss to Texas Tech after they had jumped out to a 31-16 lead. Baylor isn't a bad road team, but I just think the spot here is a tough one. They put everything they had into beating the Jayhawks. Asking them to do the same on the road just two days later in a place that's extremely hard to win at is asking a lot. Give me the Longhorns +1.5! 

40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Penn State -10.5) 

I got no problem laying double-digits with the Nittany Lions at home in this one. Nebraska is 0-9 in road games this season with 7 of those 9 losses coming in Big Ten road games. Of those 7 conference road losses, 6 have come by 12 or more points. So while Penn State may not seem like a team that should be laying this kind of a number, it's really not asking a lot for them to cover this spread. 

Especially given the bad spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers just played their final home game and really gave a big effort on senior night against Iowa on Friday. I could definitely see Nebraska coming out extremely flat in this game. 

On the flip side, Penn State is a team playing with some confidence right now. Nittany Lions have won 3 of their last 4. Penn State will be celebrating their senior night in this one and they have 4 seniors who either start or play big minutes in Sam Sessions, Jalen Pickett, Myles Dread and John Harrar. Give me the Nittany Lions -10.5! 

40* (CBB) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (St. Mary's +10) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Gaels as a double-digit home dog against No. 1 ranked Gonzaga. KenPom says this line should be 7 and that just goes to show you how overrated this Bulldogs team is in the betting market right now. 

Not saying Gonzaga isn't a great team, but the price here is just too good to pass up, especially give the spot. The Bulldogs just played a pretty big road game at San Francisco on Thursday and now must play another road game on just 1 day of rest. There's also not a lot at stake for Gonzaga, who already has locked up the WCC regular-season title and outside of an early exit in the WCC tournament are all but a lock to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

St. Mary's would be in the field of 68 if the tournament started today, but are only projected at the moment to be a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. A win here would lock them in and more important get them out of that 8/9 game and avoid having to play a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the second round. Either way we can bank on the Gaels giving us everything they got in this game. Give me St. Mary's +10! 

50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rutgers -2.5)

I love the value we are getting with the Scarlet Knights as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Badgers. This is a massive game for Rutgers, who are not a sure thing to make the NCAA Tournament, despite their impressive 10-7 record in Big Ten play, especially after dropping their last two on the road to Purdue and Michigan. 

That's not to say I don't think Rutgers should be in the tournament. The Scarlet Knights have been playing some great basketball over the last couple of months. Prior to losing their last two, they had won 4 straight over ranked opponents, including a 73-65 win at Wisconsin. 

The other big thing here is the huge home court advantage that Rutgers has. When this team is playing like they are, they are as tough as any team in the country to beat on their home floor. Scarlet Knights have only dropped 2 games at home all season and just one since December. Give me Rutgers -2.5! 

40* (CBB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Tennessee -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Vols as a mere 3-point home favorite against Auburn. While the Tigers are No. 3 in the country and Tennessee is back at No. 17, there's good reason the Vols are favored in this one. 

Tennessee is a perfect 14-0 on their home floor this season, which includes wins over the likes of Arizona and most recently Kentucky. Auburn is a very respectable 10-3 away from home, but they have lost their last two on the road to Florida and Arkansas. They also have a lot of close calls that could have went the other way. They only won by 2 at Georgia, by just 1 at Missouri, by 9 at Ole Miss, by 4 at Alabama and by 4 at St Louis. Give me Tennessee -3!