At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over Houston.  The Green Wave come into this game off a 23-point upset loss at the hands of East Carolina last Saturday, while Houston pulled off a 35-point upset at Tulsa.  But off those two disparate results, we'll step in and take the home dog Green Wave.  Indeed, teams off 20-point upset losses have cashed 10 straight vs foes off 20-point upset wins!  That bodes well for Tulane here, tonight.  As does the fact that home underdogs off 14 or less points, off upset conference losses, have cashed 70% over the last 42 years vs. conference foes off upset wins.  Finally, Tulane is 9-1 ATS off a conference defeat, while Houston is an awful 0-10 ATS off a win, if it's matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss.  Take the Green Wave + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners minus the points over Old Dominion.  UTEP fell behind early last week here, at home, to New Mexico, but stormed back for a 20-13 upset victory.  They'll now welcome Conference USA rival, Old Dominion, to El Paso.  And Conference USA teams are a fantastic 76-41 ATS at home off an upset win, if they're playing an opponent not off back to back wins.  Moreover, the Miners fall into a super 69% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset wins.  Take UTEP minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS, while Boston College is 4-0 straight-up.  Clearly, the two teams are going in opposite directions.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Eagles, especially after their impressive win over Missouri last week.  But Boston College falls into a negative 47-74 ATS system of mine which goes against certain undefeated teams against winless ATS foes.  And even though I greatly respect the job that Jeff Hafley is doing in Chestnut Hill, this will be the first time his team is an underdog this season.  For technical support, consider that undefeated underdogs of more than 3 points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a woeful 31.5% ATS since 1985 when matched up against .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take Clemson minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Baylor.  We played on the Bears as a home underdog last Saturday vs. Iowa State, and were rewarded with a 31-29 win, as a 7-point dog.  Baylor is undefeated at 4-0, and once again installed as an underdog - this time in Stillwater vs. the similarly-unbeaten Cowboys.  Unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit Big 12 Conference underdogs have covered just 31% of conference games off an upset win.  Even worse:  undefeated teams are a nasty 12-24 ATS at Oklahoma State.  And, finally, undefeated teams have cashed 69% at home vs. foes off upset home wins where they were at least a touchdown underdog.  Lay the points with Oklahoma State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A&M.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game in College Station off losses.  Miss State fell at home, 28-25, to LSU, while A&M lost in Arlington to the Arkansas Razorbacks, 20-10.  The Aggies' offense has left a lot to be desired this season.  After losing starter Haynes King to a broken leg earlier this season, the Aggies are trying to make do with backup Zach Calzada.  But he was just 20-for-36 for 151 passing yards vs. Arkansas.  That won't cut it in the rugged SEC Conference.  Miss State is 2-2, but could easily be 4-0 this season.  It lost 31-29 at Memphis, in part due to a blown call by the officials which allowed a Tigers punt return touchdown to stand.  The Bulldogs outyarded Memphis, 468-246 (!), and didn't lose the turnover battle, but somehow lost.  Then last week, Miss State outyarded LSU 486-343, but came away empty.  Texas A&M has covered just 7 of 24 SEC Conference games when favored by 7+ points.  We'll take the Bulldogs as a big road underdog on Saturday night.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  The Wolfpack snapped an 8-game losing streak to Clemson, with a 27-21 overtime win as a double-digit underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade NC State in this non-conference game.  Indeed, since 1980, home teams have covered just 33.8% vs. non-conference foes, if they won outright as a double-digit underdog in their previous game.  And if they were off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, then our home teams have only covered 21% (NC State fits this 21% ATS tightener, as well).  Louisiana Tech's QB, Austin Kendall (63-for-104, 837 yds, 7 TDs, 144 QB rating) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs.  Take LA Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over South Florida.  SMU stunned its metroplex rival, TCU, last Saturday, in Fort Worth, as the Mustangs won by 8, as a 9.5-point underdog.  That moved the record of Sonny Dykes' troops to 4-0 this season.  They're now healthy home favorites against the Bulls, who are 2-2 on the season.   We'll take the homestanding Mustangs, as home favorites of 17+ points, off an upset road win, have cashed 64% since 1980 vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes.  Take SMU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Ole Miss.  Alabama comes into this game off a 63-14 pasting of Southern Mississippi.  I won't step in front of Nick Saban's men here, as his teams are 77-44 ATS when laying between 10 and 29 points.  Even better:  defending National Champs have gone 24-7 ATS in conference games after scoring more than 56 points in their previous game.  Finally, SEC Conference road underdogs of +7 (or more) points are an awful 61-93 ATS against foes off 33+ point victories.  Take Alabama to roll over Ole Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over South Carolina.  Troy was upset last week, 29-16, by Louisiana-Monroe, and will look to bounce back on the road in Columbia against the 2-2 Gamecocks.  Prior to surrendering those 29 points to Monroe, the Trojans had allowed their three previous foes to score just 33 combined.  And that bodes well for Troy here, as .500 (or better) underdogs that allow less than 17.3 ppg have gone 138-92 ATS off an upset loss.  Also, the Trojans are an awesome 7-0 ATS as an underdog off an upset loss, when matched up against .666 (or worse) foes, while South Carolina is 0-8 ATS vs. .666 (or worse) foes off an upset road loss.  And, finally, Troy falls into 220-119 and 91-37 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off SU defeats.  Grab the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Owls are favored by double-digits over the 0-3 Panthers, but fall into an ugly 0-13-1 ATS situation.  Since 2004, Florida Atlantic is 0-13-1 ATS at home vs. losing teams, when favored by less than 12 points.  Even worse:  the Owls come into this game off a blowout, 31-7, loss to Air Force.  But Conference USA favorites of 11 or less points have gone 49-89-4 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  With the Panthers, indeed, playing with revenge from a 19-point loss last season, we'll grab the double-digits with Florida International.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Kansas State. Lincoln Riley's men will enter Manhattan this afternoon with major revenge, as Kansas State has won the last two years. And the Sooners were favored by 28 and 23.5 points in those two defeats. Never before in the history of my database -- which dates back to 1980 -- has a team lost back to back meetings where it was favored by more than 20 points. We'll step in and play on Oklahoma here, as double-revengers have cashed 55.5 percent if they were upset at home in the previous season. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe.  Dating back to last season, Coastal Carolina has quietly gone 6-0-2 ATS here, at home, in Conway.  Meanwhile, the Warhawks are a wallet-busting 8-15 ATS their last 23 on the road.  Last week, Monroe was at home, and pulled off a stunning upset, 29-16, over Troy, as a 23.5-point dog.  But off that win, we will fade Monroe here, as double-digit underdogs have cashed just 40.2% over the last 42 years vs. winning conference foes, if they were off an upset win the previous week as a two-touchdown underdog.  Take the Chanticleers minus the points.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Cincinnati.  Jack Coan is now listed as 'probable' to play in this match-up between top 10-ranked squads, and we'll grab the points with the homestanding Irish.  Notre Dame has been a very reliable home underdog here, in South Bend, over the years.  And especially when the Irish didn't own a losing record, as they're 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 in that situation.  Even better:  undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have cashed 62 of 100 as home dogs vs. opponents that are also unbeaten, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since Sept 29, 2018.  Take Notre Dame + the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Louisville.  Wake Forest comes into this game off four straight blowout wins (by 20+ points each).  And they've covered the spread by 23.5 and 16.5 their past two games.  I won't step in front of this freight train here, in Winston-Salem, as home teams have covered 60% over the last 42 years in conference games, if they were off back to back 20-point wins, covered the spread by 10+ points in each, and weren't favored by more than 7 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over the Arkansas Razorbacks, as the Bulldogs fall into several of my best systems, including ones with records of 281-195, 124-59, 96-34 and 93-24 ATS.  Sam Pittman's Razorbacks upset Texas A&M last Saturday in Arlington (for their 4th straight win and cover), but will face a much stiffer test on Saturday in Athens.  The #2-ranked Bulldogs have given up just 23 points and 278 rushing yards (2.29 ypr) in their four games this season, including a total of 2 yards rushing vs. #25-ranked Clemson.  That doesn't bode well for an Arkansas offense which wants to run the football 70% of the time.  The Razorbacks are averaging just 21 pass attempts per game (compared to 47 runs).  Georgia, on the other hand, has a more balanced offense, and throws the ball 43% of the time.  The Bulldogs whitewashed Vanderbilt, 62-0, in Nashville, last week.  And NCAA teams off 50-point road wins have covered 74% of conference games over the last 42 years.  Meanwhile, NCAA teams (like Arkansas) off back-to-back wins, and 4 ATS wins have covered just 33% as underdogs of 14+ points since 1980.  Arkansas is also 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS as a .500 (or better) team getting 17+ points.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Duke.  North Carolina began its season as the 10th-ranked team in the country, but has stumbled to a 2-2 record.  Its only wins have com at home, where it defeated Georgia State, 59-17, and Virginia, 59-39.  On the road, the Heels are 0-2, with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  So, the good news for UNC fans is that the Tar Heels are back in Chapel Hill on Saturday to take on the Duke Blue Devils, who are riding a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  Unfortunately for Duke, over the last 35 years, underdogs of more than 19 points, off 3 ATS wins, have covered just 40.9% of the time.  Additionally, North Carolina is 20-6 ATS at home off a road loss by 17+ points.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over West Virginia.  The #4-ranked Sooners have sandwiched two point spread losses around a 76-0 blowout of Western Carolina.  They'll look to play much better in this -- their Big 12 opener -- than they did last week against Nebraska.  The Sooners were favored by 23 in that game, yet won by just seven, 23-16.  But .500 (or better) Big 12 home favorites of more than 5 points have cashed 64% over the last 42 seasons after failing to cover by more than 14 points in their previous game.  And Oklahoma also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain undefeated teams off ATS defeats.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Oklahoma.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Florida.  Last week, the Gators came within two points of upsetting #1-ranked Alabama.  Now, they're favored by a bunch against Tennessee -- a team they've defeated 15 of the last 16 meetings -- but it's a classic letdown spot.  We'll grab the points with the Volunteers, as Florida tends to not bounce back at home vs. SEC foes if Florida lost its previous game.  The Gators are a horrid 9-24-1 ATS in this situation.  Moreover, this is Tennessee's conference opener.  And SEC road underdogs have gone 65-37-1 ATS in their conference opener, provided their opponent wasn't playing with revenge from a loss the previous season.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh has his troops off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start after crushing Northern Illinois, 63-10, last Saturday.  That was the 2nd highest point total by a Wolverines team in the coach Harbaugh era, bettered only by a 78-0 win over these Scarlet Knights in 2016.  Like Michigan, Rutgers is also off to a 3-0 start this season, and is also undefeated ATS.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams that are undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- with a 2-0 (or better) SU/ATS record have burned money as underdogs of +11 (or more) points, as they've covered just 41.2% over the last 42 seasons.  And undefeated teams, off 35-point (or greater) home wins the previous week, have cashed 60% of conference home games since 1980.  Take Michigan to rout Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Iowa State.  Baylor comes into this game with an undefeated, 3-0 record, after blowing out Kansas last week, 45-7.  For the season, Baylor's outscoring its foes by 35.33 ppg, and that bodes well for it as a home dog on Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 42 seasons, home dogs of +2 (or more) points have covered 67.9% vs. unrested foes, if our home dog's scoring margin was 32+ points per game!  Even better:  Big 12 home underdogs off back to back wins have gone 31-10 ATS in the regular season vs. unrested conference foes not off an ATS loss.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Colorado State.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU/ATS to start the season, and will welcome the Rams to Iowa City on Saturday afternoon.  Colorado State did upset Toledo, 22-6, as a 14.5-point underdog last week, but I don't expect lightning to strike twice in successive weeks.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 0-27 SU and 9-17-1 ATS as road dogs of more than 13 points, if they won outright as a road dog of more than 13 points the previous week (including 1-10 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins).  And Iowa is a reliable 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS when favored by more than 21 points vs. non-conference foes.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles over Louisville.  The Seminoles have gotten off to an 0-3 start after succumbing, 35-14, at Wake Forest last Saturday.  But we'll take FSU in this match-up against a Louisville team coming into Tallahassee off an upset home win over UCF.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 1-22-1 ATS away from home vs. the Seminoles after winning ATS at home in their previous game, if Florida State was off an ATS loss.  Take Mike Norvell's Seminoles to get into the win column.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Western Michigan.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game off road wins.  The Spartans went out to Honolulu, and dispatched the Rainbow Warriors, 17-13, while Western Michigan shocked Pittsburgh, 44-41, as a two touchdown underdog.  Each team now stands at 2-1 on the season.  Dating back to November 2017, the Spartans are a fantastic 21-11-2 ATS, while the Broncos are 12-20 ATS.  And Western Michigan is also an awful 1-12 ATS off a point spread cover by 10+ points.  Finally, over the last 42 years, home teams have covered just 32.7% off an upset non-conference win as a road dog of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against another non-conference opponent in their current game.  Take the Spartans.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, the Cavaliers were blown out, 59-39, by the North Carolina Tar Heels, while Wake Forest thrashed Florida State, 35-14.  But off those results, we'll take the Cavaliers to rebound on Friday, as they fall into a 99-49 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in conference games off double-digit conference losses the previous week.  Moreover, the Cavaliers are 19-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS their last 21 home games.  And they're 8-0 ATS their last eight at home (and 20-6-1 ATS their last 27 home games) when not favored by 7+ points.  Take Virginia to rout the Demon Deacons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Last week, Marshall was stunned, 42-38, as a 10.5-point home favorite by East Carolina.  But I love Marshall to rebound tonight in Boone, as Conference USA teams have cashed 57% in non-conference road games off an upset home loss.  These two schools met last season in Huntington, and the Herd upset the Mountaineers, 17-7, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  They are once again installed as an underdog, and we'll grab the points with Marshall on Thursday.  Indeed, Sun Belt conference teams are a horrible 32-67 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if that foe didn't own a losing record (including 0-11 ATS their last 11 as a home favorite, priced from -2.5 to -12.5).  That doesn't bode well for Appalachian State on Thursday night.  Nor does the fact that Marshall is a fantastic 11-1-1 ATS its last 13, and 16-5-1 ATS its last 21 in non-conference games when off a straight-up loss, and not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, App State is a wallet-busting 3-14 ATS at home off a win, when playing an opponent which doesn't own a winning ATS record.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Brigham Young.  BYU notched a huge, emotional win last Saturday, when it defeated its Beehive State rival, Utah, 26-17, as a 7-point underdog.  That moved BYU's record to 2-0 on the season.  But .800 (or better) NCAA home underdogs (or PK) have covered just 16% over the past 42 years off an upset, non-conference home win.  And the Cougars have covered just 6 of 22 off an upset win, when they were matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Arizona State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Stanford.  David Shaw's Cardinal pulled off a massive upset last weekend, as they went into the Coliseum, and upset USC, 42-28, as an 18-point underdog.  And they did more than just win the game.  They also got USC head coach Clay Helton fired!  Stanford will now travel east to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores, who also pulled off a road upset win last week, when they went into Fort Collins, and upended the Colorado State Rams, 24-21.  This is a big letdown spot for Stanford, as this non-conference road game is sandwiched in between conference games vs. USC and UCLA.  For technical support, consider that Pac-12 teams have covered just 15.3% since 1980 as a non-conference road favorite after a SU/ATS conference win, if they also have a Pac-12 conference game on deck.  Take Vanderbilt as a big home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Mississippi State.  We played on the Bulldogs last Saturday as a home underdog vs. NC State.  And Mike Leach's men got the $$$ vs. NC State.  But off that home upset win, we will fade Miss State on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, SEC Conference teams are a horrible 30.4% ATS in their first road game of the season, if they're off back to back home wins.  Take the home dog Memphis Tigers + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Tulsa.  We played against the Buckeyes last Saturday, and easily got the $$$ with Oregon, which upset Ohio State, 35-28, as a 14.5-point road underdog.  This Saturday, we'll switch gears, and lay the points with Ohio State, which is 28-12 ATS off a SU loss  Take Ohio State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Washington State.  The Trojans lost more than a conference game last Saturday.  They also lost their head coach, Clay Helton, as he was summarily fired on Tuesday by Mike Bohn, the school's athletic director.  So, USC's cornerbacks coach, Donte Williams, will assume the head role for the remainder of the season.  And Williams' first game will be this week at Washington State.  The Trojans are a superb 39-19-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 15-3-1 ATS on the Pac-12 road.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Virginia Tech.  The Mountaineers had a breather last Saturday, as Long Island visited Morgantown, and were annihilated by WVU, 66-0.  The Hokies will now pay a visit to Morgantown, after going 2-0 SU/ATS at home to start their 2021 season.  Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, NCAA teams off back-to-back SU/ATS home wins to start their seasons, are a horrible 30.7% ATS since 1980 in Game 3 when not getting more than 4 points, and also matched up against an opponent off a win.  Moreover, NCAA teams have cashed 79% at home since 1992 off a win by more than 56 points, when matched up against a winning, non-conference foe.  Take the Mountaineers.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Cincinnati.  Indiana lost its season opener, but bounced back last Saturday with a blowout win over Idaho, 56-14.  The Hoosiers have been installed as a home underdog in this game against the #8-ranked Bearcats, which bodes well for Tom Allen's men.  Indeed, since 1980, .500 (or worse) underdogs off a 40+ point win have covered 63.3% vs. opponents also off a win.  Moreover, dating back to Sept 28, 2019, Indiana is now 8-2 ATS its last 10 as an underdog.  And it's 23-11 ATS off a straight-up win, when priced from +10 to -27 points.  Finally, Cincinnati is a wallet-breaking 15-27 ATS as a road favorite priced from -2.5 to -12 points.  Take the Hoosiers as a home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers come into this road game off back to back home wins over Fordham and Buffalo.  But in their lone road game this season, they were soundly beaten by Illinois, 30-22, as a 7-point favorite.  They'll now be tasked with going into Norman to take on a juggernaut Oklahoma team coming off a 76-0 whitewash of Western Carolina.  We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as the 'Huskers have covered just 20 of 57 games away from home off a double-digit home win.  Even better:  NCAA home favorites of 35 points or less (or PK) have cashed 70.2% of non-conference games since 1980 off a win by 60+ points.  Lay the points with the Sooners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  Both of these teams come into this game in Starkville off season-opening wins last week.  But how they reached those wins was vastly different.  NC State blew out South Florida, 45-0, as a 20-point home favorite.  In contrast, Mississippi State had to storm back from a 20 point, 4th quarter deficit to eke out a 35-34 win against Louisiana Tech.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the Bulldogs as a short home underdog on Saturday night.  But the Wolfpack are a wallet-busting 13-33 ATS on the road in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 8 points.  And Game 2 road favorites, off a double-digit home win the previous week, have cashed just 34.4% of non-conference games vs. winning opposition, dating back 32 seasons.  Finally, Mississippi State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in non-conference games at home, off a win, when not favored by 7+ points.  Grab the points with Mike Leach's Bulldogs on this Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Liberty.  Troy smashed Southern U., 55-3, last Saturday, and has been installed as a home underdog vs. Liberty in this game.  The Flames went 10-1 last season, but this is their road opener for 2021.  And NCAA teams have cashed just 32.5% in their road openers if they won 87+ percent of their games the previous season, and were not favored by 7 or more points in the current game.  Take Troy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Penn State.  The Cardinals have been extremely profitable over the last 16 seasons when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points in regular season non-conference games, as they're 23-6 ATS.  And I love this situation on Saturday, as it's a potential scheduling "flat spot" for the Nittany Lions, as Penn State defeated then-No. 12-ranked Wisconsin last week, and has #25-ranked Auburn on deck.  Grab the points with Ball State.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Virginia Tech.  Rick Stockstill's Blue Raiders blew out Monmouth last Saturday, 50-15, as an 8.5-point home favorite.  And they've now been installed as a big road underdog in Blacksburg against the Hokies.  We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee, as underdogs of +14 (or more) points have gone 108-67 ATS in non-conference games off a win by more than 30 points in their previous game.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies shocked Georgia Tech in Atlanta last week, as they won, 22-21, as a 19-point road underdog.  But when you look through the final score to the stats, you'll notice that Georgia Tech actually out-yarded Northern Illinois 429 to 301.  The Huskies have been installed as a home underdog in this non-conference tilt vs. Wyoming.  Unfortunately for Thomas Hammock's Huskies, home dogs have covered just 29.4% over the last 32 seasons off an upset win as a 14-point (or greater) underdog, when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a SU win.  And Wyoming is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Ohio State.  Both of these teams come into Columbus off wins to start the 2021 season.  Oregon downed Fresno St., 31-24, while Ohio State went into Minneapolis and defeated the Golden Gophers, 45-31.  The fact that Oregon struggled last week in its 7-point win will keep many bettors away from the Ducks this week.  It shouldn't.  Indeed, Game 2 non-conference underdogs of +20 or less points (or PK) have covered 66.1% over the last 32 seasons after failing to cover the spread in their opener against a non-conference foe, if they were now matched up against an opponent off a double-digit win.  Even better:  the Ducks are 44-31-2 ATS their last 77 off a point spread loss, including 19-11-1 ATS on the road.  And, finally, Pac-12 teams with a winning record have gone 45-19-1 ATS as an underdog vs. Big 10 foes.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Illinois.  The Illini kicked off the Bret Bielema era with a 30-22 upset win over Nebraska, and will look to make it 2-in-a-row for their new head coach.  On Saturday night, Texas-San Antonio will come into Champaign, and it will look to continue the success it had last season (7-5 SU and 7-4 ATS).  Even better, the Roadrunners are 10-3 ATS their last 13 in the underdog role, while Illinois is a nasty 27-46 ATS its last 73 as a favorite (compared to 11-7 its last 18 as an underdog).  And since 1980, Big 10 Conference teams have covered just 31% of their non-conference games off an upset conference win.  Take Texas San Antonio + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, January 11, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Alabama.  This selection certainly won't come as a surprise to anyone who joined us for our huge play on the Buckeyes + over Clemson.  In my discussion of that game, I highlighted that Ohio State was 13-0 ATS its last 13 as underdogs of more than 3 points.  Well, after its 49-28 blowout of Clemson, that mark is now 14-0 ATS its last 14.  Ohio State just destroyed Trevor Lawrence & Co., so why not Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, et al?  It's true that Alabama didn't play its best game vs. Notre Dame.  The Tide went up 28-7 on a Jones-to-Smith TD pass, with 4:58 left in the 3rd quarter, but never scored another TD.  They did tack on a 4th quarter field goal, but a late touchdown by Notre Dame rewarded Irish bettors.  I was one of those bettors, as I took Notre Dame + the large number.  And we'll grab the points here, as well.  For technical support, consider that .928 (or better) teams are 0-9 ATS in the post-season as a favorite of less than 13 points vs. foes off a momentum-building upset win.  Additionally, I love playing on bowl underdogs with good defenses, and strong rushing attacks.  This season, Ohio State's offensive YPR is 6.0, while Bama's is 5.1, and each gives up 3.2 YPR on defense.  The Buckeyes' relative Total YPR is +0.927.  With this as a backdrop, consider that Bowl underdogs of more than 4 points, with a powerful rushing attack that garners 6+ yards per rush, have cashed 89% in the bowls since 1993, while single-digit bowl underdogs have gone 123-83-3 ATS if their defense gave up 22 or less ppg, and their relative YPR (yards per rush) was better than their opponent's.  Take Ohio State + the points in the Championship game on Monday, Jan. 11.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Indiana.  The 4-5 Rebels have been installed as a huge underdog vs. Indiana, which finished #11 in the final CFP rankings, and #7 in the AP Poll.  And, by my numbers, it's an overlay.  It's true that Lane Kiffin's Rebels were upset at LSU to end their regular season.  And that may keep a number of bettors away from the Ole Miss side.  But teams off upset defeats have gone 65.8% ATS in the Bowls since 1981 if they were playing at a home or neutral site, and their opponent wasn't off an upset loss.  That bodes well for Ole Miss on Saturday.  As does the fact that SEC Conference underdogs of +3 (or more) points are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season if they lost their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points with Ole Miss!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over North Carolina State.  The Wildcats were 4-6 on the season, while NC State was 8-3.  Yet Kentucky played the MUCH MORE difficult schedule (comprised wholly of SEC Conference foes), which is why it is favored by a small amount this afternoon.  Indeed, Kentucky's six losses were to such powers as Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.  We'll take the team from the stronger conference, as SEC Conference teams are 73-47 ATS in the bowls when not laying 3+ points, or off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 3-12 ATS their last 15 away from home, including 0-6 ATS when the line was less than 7 points.  Take Kentucky to blow out NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Clemson.  The Buckeyes were provided a lot of bulletin board material from the words of Clemson coach, Dabo Swinney.  And I'm sure the Ohio State team wasn't happy to hear Swinney's thoughts.  But, at the end of the day, when the players take the field, those words stay behind on the bulletin board, and a team's success (or failure) will largely come down to execution.  And over the last decade, it's hard to find a team which is better at execution than three of the four teams in this NCAA Football semi-final (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State).  Those three programs have been heads-and-shoulders above their brethren for years.  And one of the lessons gleaned over the years is that you don't want to give ANY of these team points -- regardless of the talent on the other side.  To wit:  the Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS their last 18 as underdogs, including 13-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points!  (Likewise, Alabama is 12-7-1 ATS its last 20 as an underdog, and Clemson is 33-13 its last 46 as a dog.)  Last year, of course, when these two teams met in the semifinal round, Ohio State did suffer a rare ATS defeat as an underdog (one of the Buckeyes' three ATS losses of their last 18 as underdogs).  But Ohio State was only getting 2.5 in that game.  And it only lost by six.  So, if it was getting the number of points as it is in tonight's game, then it would have covered.  So, yes, Clemson has the much better quarterback, and the better overall team.  But so did most of the last 13 opponents the Buckeyes faced when they were installed as an underdog greater than 3 points.  And Ohio State still managed to cover the spread in each of them.  The bottom line is that there's too much success on the side of the Buckeyes as an underdog (or with any of the NCAA blue bloods) to lay a significant amount of points to them.  Now, it's also true that Ohio State struggled in the Big 10 Championship game vs. Northwestern, and mustered just 22 points in a 12-point win (as a 16.5-point favorite).  But the Buckeyes are a fantastic 53-25 ATS after scoring 24 or less points in their previous game.  Take Ohio State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Alabama.  The Irish come into this game off a blowout loss at the hands of Clemson, 34-10.  That was Notre Dame's first loss of the season.  And one of the things I love to do in the Bowls is take teams that haven't lost more than 1 time on the season, if they're an underdog, and off an ATS defeat.  Since 1980, these teams have covered 61.2% in the Bowls.  Additionally, big Bowl underdogs of +16 (or more) points have covered 70% over the past 41 years.  And Bowl teams with defenses that give up 21 or less points have gone 64-37 ATS off a SU loss, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Irish + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Georgia.  The Bearcats are giving up just 16 points per game, and have yet to taste defeat on the season.  And that bodes well for the Bearcats as, in the Bowls, .680 (or better) teams have covered 65.3% over the last 41 years, if they surrendered, on average, less points than their opponent, and were getting 7+ points in the game.  Moreover,  SEC Conference teams have covered just five of 19 Bowls when installed as a favorite, if they won their previous game before the Bowl season.  And American Athletic Conference teams off a SU win have gone 43-22 ATS vs. non-conference foes with a scoring margin of +13 (or better), including 8-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +13.5 points.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over San Jose State.  Both teams come into this game off big upset wins in their respective conference championship game.  Ball State claimed the Mid-American Conference title with a 38-28 upset of Buffalo, as 12-point underdogs.  And that was Ball State's sixth straight win, and fourth straight ATS win.  Likewise, the undefeated (7-0) Spartans won the Mountain West Conference for the first time in their history when they upset Boise State, 34-20, as a 6.5-point underdog in the title game.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) Mountain West favorites have been dreadful vs. .500 (or better) non-conference foes when both teams entered the game off a SU win, as the Mountain West has cashed just 25 of 80 games.  That doesn't bode well for San Jose today.  Nor does the fact that bowl favorites of more than 6 points have gone 0-6 ATS off an upset win in their conference title game.  Or that .850 (or better) bowl underdogs of +7 (or more) points have cashed 69% in the bowls since 1980 against foes off SU/ATS wins.  But the clincher is that .800 (or better) bowl teams off an upset win (like Ball State) have gone 12-0 ATS their last 12 when not favored by more than 4 points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Thursday, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Tulsa.  Mike Leach has always been one of my favorite football coaches, with his Air Raid offenses at Texas Tech and Washington State.  This was his first year in Starkville and, although his 3-7 season was his worst since Washington State's 3-9 record in 2014, he was able to lead the Bulldogs to their 11th straight Bowl appearance.  Miss State will face the 6-2 Golden Hurricane, which bookended two losses against Oklahoma State (in their season opener) and Cincinnati (in the AAC Championship game) with a six-game win streak in the middle.  And Tulsa was 7-1 ATS, and covered by an average of 10.5 ppg.  But Leach has been at his best when matched up against opponents with much better records, as he's gone 16-4-1 ATS vs. foes that owned a win percentage at least 40% better than his team, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS if that foe covered the spread for the season by at least 10 ppg.  Even worse for Tulsa:  teams that lost their conference title game have gone 10-25 ATS in their next game against foes that did not lose a title game, including 1-10 ATS when priced as a favorite of 7 or less points!  Finally, the American Athletic Conference has not had great success vs. the SEC, as its teams have gone 1-5 ATS in the Bowls, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 away from home (including a 23-0 loss by Tulsa at Arkansas two seasons ago).  Meanwhile, the SEC has gone 8-1 ATS its last nine as Bowl underdogs.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Wisconsin.  Wake Forest ended its season with back to back losses to North Carolina and Louisville.  But both of those were road games; the Demon Deacons were 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home, or on neutral fields this season.  And NCAA teams have gone 34-20 ATS in the Bowls if they lost their last two games away from home to end their season.  Meanwhile, the Badgers ended on an 0-4 ATS run, and they lost three of their last four straight-up.  It's hard to make a case for laying points with Wisconsin, as .666 (or worse) teams have been historically poor in the Bowls when laying more than 7 points (33-61-2 ATS).  And Bowl teams off 4 ATS losses have gone 13-26-1 ATS when priced from +3 to -13 points.  Take Wake Forest + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Miami Hurricanes over the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Miami was annihilated in its last game, an embarrassing 36-point upset loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys blew out Baylor, 42-3.  On the surface, it may look easy to play on Okie State given the results of the two teams' most recent games.  But consider that teams off a loss by 23+ points have actually covered 71% in the post-season over the past 41 years when matched up against an opponent off a 23+ point victory, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 3 points.  Moreover, Miami's an awesome 12-0 ATS away from home off a loss when it was an underdog of +10 or less points , and its opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Hurricanes in the Cheez-It Bowl.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, in the LendingTree Bowl, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Georgia State.  This is another "offense vs defense" matchup in the Bowls.  The Panthers are the offensive-minded team, as they score 32.7 ppg (against foes that give up 27.7), while the Hilltoppers are the defensive-minded squad, as they give up just 18 ppg (against foes that score 24.1 ppg).  And, as faithful followers know, in College Football, I will take the points with the better defensive team more often than not.  Indeed, post-season favorites of 5 or less points, with defenses that give up more than 3 points than their opponent's defense, have gone 6-29 ATS.  The Hilltoppers come into this game off back to back double-digit blowout wins against Florida International and Charlotte.  And the Hilltoppers are 24-11 ATS off back to back wins, including 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Cajuns come into this game off an upset road win at Appalachian State, and have been installed as a two-touchdown favorite vs. the Roadrunners in this First Responder Bowl game in Dallas, Texas.  But off that upset victory, we will fade the Cajuns on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, favorites of more than 9 points off a road win have gone 2-16 ATS away from home in a bowl game.  That doesn't bode well for Louisiana on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that it's covered just 2 of 8 (and just 9 of 25) as favorites of more than 13 points.  Finally, Sun Belt Conference teams are a horrid 15-38 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Roadrunners + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Buffalo.  Both of these teams come into this Christmas Day game off upset losses.  Marshall was defeated, 22-13, by UAB, as a 4.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Bulls were 5-0, and favored by double-digits in the Mid-American Conference championship game last weekend, but fell by 10 points to Ball State, 38-28.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, NCAA Bowl favorites generally don't bounce back from Conference Championship game blowout losses, as they're 12-28 ATS off a double-digit loss in their Conference Title game.  Even worse:  Buffalo's favored in this game, even though its defense rates poorer than Marshall's.  The Bulls have given up 23.8 ppg (against foes that average 27.7).  And while that's really good, Marshall's has been much better, as it's only given up 12.6 ppg (against foes that average 21 ppg).  We'll grab the points with the Herd, as NCAA Bowl teams -- not favored by more than 10 points -- have cashed 65 of 95 if their defense gave up less than 14.7 ppg, and their defense also gave up at least 5.83 ppg less than their opponent's.  Even better:  if our 'play-on' team (here, Marshall) failed to cover its previous game by more than 8 points, then our 65-30 ATS angle zooms to 14-1 ATS!  Finally, dating back 15 years, Mid-American Conference teams have gone 3-15 SU and 5-12-1 ATS vs. Conference USA foes in the Bowls, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Houston.  For the season, the Cougars had a losing record (3-4), a negative scoring margin (-0.28), a negative ATS record (3-4 ATS), and a negative point spread differential (-4.14).  Yet they find themselves hefty favorites this afternoon vs. the Rainbow Warriors.  We will fade Houston, as Bowl favorites (or PK), with a negative scoring margin, and a point spread differential of -1.75 (or worse) have covered a paltry 26.3% over the last 41 seasons.  Even worse:  Houston's defense surrenders north of 32.5 ppg.  Unfortunately, Bowl favorites (or PK) with a defense that gives up more than 31.5 ppg have gone 0-17 ATS their last 17.  Take Hawaii + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Memphis.  The Owls are giving up just 16.5 points per game (against oppoents that average 22.8), and have a much better defense than do the Tigers.  Memphis surrenders 29.7 ppg (against foes that average 29.4).  Last week, we played on Northwestern against Ohio State, and what I wrote then in my analysis also applies here.  Basically, when wagering on post-season games, it's dangerous to give the much better defensive team a lot of points, as underdogs of 7+ points that surrender at least 7 less points than their opponent have covered 73% over the last 41 years.  Florida Atlantic is 6-0 SU/ATS its last six post-season games, while Memphis is 1-7 straight-up and 0-8 ATS its last eight post-season games.  Take the Owls as a big underdog this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Appalachian State.  This match-up pits Conference USA against the Sun Belt Conference.  The 8-3 Mountaineers (from the Sun Belt) have been installed as a huge favorite over 4-5 North Texas in this Myrtle Beach Bowl game.  But, as I've often written, it's treacherous to lay a lot of points in the Bowls.  Indeed, underdogs of +16 or more points are now 14-4 ATS their last 18.  Even worse for Appalachian State:  .500 (or better) Sun Belt Conference teams are 2-18-1 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if its opponent is off a SU win.  And, dating back to last season, Appalachian State is now 0-6 ATS its last six games played away from home.  Take North Texas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have been a point spread powerhouse this season, as they're 6-1 ATS.  And we've benefited greatly, as we played on Tulsa in each of its last three games (3-0 ATS), while never going against it this season.  But the Golden Hurricane are in a horrible spot here, as they have to play the AAC Title game on Cincinnati's home field.  They also played here last season, and lost 24-13. which was their fourth straight loss here in Cincinnati (and 2nd straight since each team joined the AAC).  Of course, the fact that Tulsa hasn't won here shouldn't come as a surprise, as the Bearcats have dominated opponents at home.  Cincy's currently riding a 19-game home win streak, and has gone 11-4 ATS its last 15, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Even better for Cincy:  it's 10-0 ATS its last 10 at home when priced from -10 to -21 points against an opponent off a win, and it's 46-24-1 ATS at home since 1990 vs. foes off a win.  But the clincher is that road teams that were on a 4-game (or better) win streak are a horrid 0-8 SU/ATS when playing with revenge in the post-season!  Take the Bearcats to blow out Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Alabama.  The Gators suffered a huge upset loss last week when they fell, 37-34, at home vs. LSU.  And Florida was favored by 24 points in that game!  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Florida, and lay the points with Alabama.  After all, the Crimson Tide currently have the best ATS (net profit) record in the country (tied with Coastal Carolina), at 8-2 ATS.  But great point spread records don't equate with success in Title games, as teams with a .750 (or better) ATS record have only covered 40% of Conference Championship games.  Additionally, .666 (or better) college football underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset conference loss at home, have gone 41-15 ATS.  And NCAA teams that gave up more than 31 points in defeat in their previous game, have covered the spread in 71% of Conference title games.  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers went into Lincoln, Nebraska last week, and upset the Cornhuskers, 24-17, as an 8-point road underdog.  But this is a horrible situation for the Gophers, as the Badgers come into this Saturday afternoon game on a rare 3-game losing streak.  Even worse for the Badgers:  they were favored in each of those games, and scored just 7, 6 and 7 points in those defeats.  But we'll take Wisky to bounce back here, at home, as double-digit home favorites, off back to back SU/ATS losses, have cashed 71% over the last 41 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home team was off an upset defeat in its previous game.  Additionally, this will be Wisconsin's final home game of the season.  And it's 24-13 ATS in its final game at home when matched up against a Big 10 foe, including 8-4 ATS off a SU loss.  Meanwhile, Minnesota is a wallet-busting 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS on the road when getting 11+ points against an opponent off an upset loss.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over LSU.  Last week, the Tigers upset then-No. 6-ranked Florida, 37-34.  And LSU was a 24-point underdog in that game!  Can Ed Orgeron's men make it two-upsets-in-a-row?  I wouldn't bet on it, as defending National Champions are a soft 96-126-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse, if our defending champs pulled off an upset in their previous game, then those teams are a woeful 4-12 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS if they weren't favored by 3+ points in the current game.  That doesn't bode well for LSU on Saturday afternoon.  Nor does the fact that College football home teams have covered just 10 of 35 games off an upset win, if they were an underdog of 20+ points in their previous game.  And LSU is a wallet-busting 2-11 ATS off a road upset win.  It's true that LSU has won the last four meetings by 21, 29, 16 and 17 points.  But Ole Miss is a solid 31-17-1 ATS when playing on the road with revenge vs. an opponent off a win.  And revenge-minded SEC Conference teams, with a .500 (or better) record, are 30-13 ATS as a favorite away from home, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -4.5 points.  Take Lane Kiffin's Rebels to blow out LSU.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Southern Cal.  There's a saying that it's "better to be lucky than good."  And that might end up applying to the Oregon Ducks, if they can take advantage of their good fortune to be playing in this Pac-12 Championship game.  After all, Oregon finished 2nd to Washington in the Pac-12 North division.  But COVID-19 issues scuttled Washington's plans, so Oregon was tabbed to replace Washington as USC's opponent.  It's true the Ducks have dropped their last two games, while USC is 5-0 straight-up, and has covered each of their last three.  But single-digit underdogs off a straight-up loss are 9-1 ATS their last 10 in Conference Title game.  And the Ducks are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven vs. the Trojans.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 5-4 on the season, and enter this Commonwealth rivalry game on a 4-game win streak (and 5-game ATS win streak), while the Hokies have lost their last four games SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot underdog Cavaliers.  But consider that road teams off a SU win, that were also on a 3-game ATS win streak, have covered just 50 of 124 conference games against foes off a SU loss, that were on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  And if our road team owned a winning record, and was an underdog of 7 or less points, then our road teams have gone 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Boise State.  The Cowboys were upset at home, 17-16, by New Mexico in their last game.  And Wyoming was favored by more than two touchdowns!  But off that horrible game, we'll take the Cowboys to bounce back on Saturday as a big home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 30 seasons, NCAA home underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 12, have cashed 73%.  And Wyoming's also cashed 75% since 1980 as a conference home underdog off an upset loss.  Take the points with Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Florida State.  The Blue Devils were shut out, 48-0, at home by Miami last weekend, which was their 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS).  But conference road underdogs off home shutout defeats have bounced back to cover 57% over the last 41 years.  Likewise, Florida State comes into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  However, that's not too surprising, as it's been several years since the Seminoles have been a good point spread team.  And they've been especially poor when matched up against an ACC conference rival which wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  Now, if Florida State was playing a conference foe which DID win and cover its previous game, Florida State has actually had a winning ATS ledger in those games, as those opponents tended to suffer letdowns.  But when its ACC opponent DIDN'T win and cover its previous game, then Florida State is a horrid 29-59-4 ATS.  But that's not the worst part.  If the Seminoles were favored by 17 points or less (or PK), then they've gone 10-40-3 ATS.  Yikes!  Take Duke + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  Last week, Miami went into Durham, and shut out Duke, 48-0, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Suffice it to say, when a college football team shuts out its opponent on the road, then it's playing really well.  And one of the last things I will ever do is step in front of a team which just pitched a road shutout.  Indeed, these teams have gone 192-128-9 ATS in the regular season since 1980 (60%), including 18-1 ATS their last 19 when favored by 11 points or less, and off a win by 34+ points.  Take Miami to blow out North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last week, the 9-0 Chanticleers faced off with the 9-0 BYU Cougars.  The Chanticleers were double-digit underdogs, but pulled off the upset, 22-17.  However, teams that win "Battles of Unbeatens" -- at Game 8 forward -- tend to have letdowns in their following game, and have done especially poor when favored by double-digits off an upset win, as they've gone 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Even worse for Coastal:  the Trojans are 15-5-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 7-1-1 ATS at home, and 6-1 ATS as an underdog.  Take the Trojans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Akron.  The Bulls slaughtered Kent St, 70-41, in their last game, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And Buffalo is averaging 50.75 points on the season.  Faithful followers know I love playing on college football teams that can score.  And, over the last 41 years, home teams that average more than 50 points per game on offense, have covered 63.5% vs. losing teams, if our home team was favored by less than 45 points (and 75% if our team scored 65+ in its previous game).  That bodes well for the Bulls on Saturday.  As does the fact that Akron has covered just four of its last 19 games as an underdog, while Buffalo is 14-0 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Mid-American conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Nitts last week as our biggest play of the season-to-date, and were rewarded with an easy win over Rutgers.  After starting the season 0-5, Penn State's won its last two games, and I look for it to make it three-in-a-row on this Saturday.  And it's a perfect situational spot for the Nitts, as Michigan State will be playing its final road game of the season off three straight home games!  Since 1980, teams playing their final game of the season on the road have covered just 28% of the time, if they played their three previous games at home, and their opponent was off a point spread win.  Even better for Penn State:  it's 11-2 ATS in its final home game of the season when priced from -9 to -23 points.  The Nittany Lions were a better team than reflected in their 0-5 start, and that was evident last weekend.  We'll take Penn State to close out the season strong in Happy Valley.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Southern Miss.  Last week, Willie Taggart's Owls were upset by Georgia Southern, 20-3, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  But off that loss, we'll step in and lay the points with Florida Atlantic tonight, as Taggart's teams in his coaching career (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State and Florida Atlantic) have gone 45-31 ATS in conference games, and have also cashed 75% in his career off an upset loss.  Even better:  Conference USA teams have gone 13-0 ATS as road favorites priced from -8.5 to -24 points off an upset defeat.  Finally, Southern Miss is a woeful 4-18 ATS at home vs. a foe off a point spread loss.  Take Florida Atlantic minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Miami (Fla).  Miami enters tonight's game on a 4-game win streak, after upsetting Virginia Tech, 25-24, in Blacksburg back on November 14.  Duke's also played just one game over the previous three weekends, but its game came last Saturday when it lost at Georgia Tech, 56-33, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  Overall, the Blue Devils are 2-7 this season, and have dropped their last two games (both SU and ATS).  We'll grab the double-digits with the Blue Devils, as ACC teams are 29-8 ATS off back to back losses when playing a conference foe at home, or on a neutral field, if that foe was off 4+ wins.  Even better:  the Hurricanes are a wallet-busting 11-32 ATS when not playing the previous week, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Take the points with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Colorado.  It's true that the Buffaloes are 3-0 SU/ATS, while Arizona is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out at UCLA last weekend.  But we'll step in and take the winless Wildcats as a big home underdog on Saturday evening.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, it's been profitable to play against teams that were undefeated in conference play (with a 2-0 or better record), if they were playing away from home against a team which was winless in conference play (with an 0-2 or worse record).  And if our road team also was off an ATS win, while its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our system has cashed 62% since 1980.  Arizona is a solid 27-15 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win, including 15-6 ATS at home.  Take the points with the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford. Both of these teams come into this game off narrow wins last weekend.  The Huskies defeated Utah, 24-21, while Stanford got by rival California, 24-23.  Last year, the Cardinal shocked the Huskies, 23-13, as 12.5-point home underdogs.  But you know what they say about "paybacks!"  And Washington is in prime position to avenge that loss on this Saturday, as they fall into a great 59-29 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were upset the previous season.  Stanford is a wallet-busting 0-6-2 ATS away from Palo Alto its last eight, and 0-4-1 ATS its last five when playing a foe with revenge.  Meanwhile, Washington is a fantastic 24-5 SU and 22-7 ATS when not getting 3 points vs. an opponent off a SU win, if the game was at home or on a neutral field (and 15-0 ATS if the Huskies didn't win their previous game by two touchdowns or more).  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers won their sixth straight game against the spread last Saturday, and look to move their season ATS record to 7-0 when they travel to Madison this afternoon.  Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they lost their 1st string quarterback last week when Michael Penix Jr. suffered an ACL injury.  Thus, sophomore QB Jack Tuttle, who was 5-for-5 (for 34 yards) in relief of Penix Jr. last week, will get the start under center.  But the greater problem for Indiana today will be the fact that its opponent -- Wisconsin -- is not only a very talented team, but will be in an ornery mood off its upset loss last Saturday at Northwestern.  The Badgers are 11-6 ATS in Big 10 Conference games when they were off a loss, while Indiana's a horrid 15-30 ATS on the Big 10 road when playing a foe off a loss, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +9 to +19 points!  Finally, for technical support, consider that underdogs off a SU win, that have a point spread record of 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 33% since 1980, including just 18% vs. opponents off a SU loss.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy.  Tulsa's won its last five games since opening up with a respectable 16-7 loss at a very good Oklahoma State team.  And Tulsa's also 5-1 ATS this season, including another cover in their last game -- a 30-24 victory over Tulane.  And it's been perfect on the road, as it's 3-0 ATS this season, and 28-11 ATS away from Tulsa since 2014.  This afternoon, Tulsa's been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Navy.  Now, it's true that the Midshipmen might be the best traveler in College Football.  Dating back to 1988, they're 127-70-4 ATS.  Unfortunately for its home fans (at least for those who wager on games), Navy's burned money at home, in Annapolis.  And they've been especially poor vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win, as they've covered just 9 of 41 since 1988, including 0-17-2 ATS when priced from -4 to +14 points.  Yikes!  Take Tulsa minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over South Alabama.  The Trojans are favored on the road vs. the Jaguars, notwithstanding the fact they've lost their last three games SU/ATS (including a 47-10 blowout at Appalachian St. last Saturday), while the Jaguars check in off a 38-31 upset win last week at Arkansas State.  And that's key, as NCAA road favorites have cashed 65.5% over the past 41 years off 3 SU losses, if they were playing a conference foe off a win!  But that's not the best part.  If our road favorite also failed to cover each of their 3 previous games, then our 65.5% ATS angle zooms to 90% ATS since 1980.  Throw in the fact that Troy is an awesome 10-0 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) after losing their previous game by more than 28 points, and we have all the ammunition we need to load up on the Trojans today.  Lay it.

At 12 Noon on Saturday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers.  The Nittany Lions got off the schneid last week when they won and covered the spread for the first time all season (after five failures), on the road in Ann Arbor.  For me, that was a big "buy signal" as, in college football, when teams open the season with 3+ ATS losses, they generally do well after their initial ATS cover when playing a team off a SU/ATS win, itself.  The Scarlet Knights also won on the road last week, as they pulled off a major upset with a 37-30 triumph in West Lafayette vs. the Purdue Boilermakers, as a 13-point underdog.  They're now 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Unfortunately for Rutgers, double-digit home dogs have covered just 33.9% after pulling off an upset as a double-digit road dog.  And home dogs have also just cashed 37.1% over the last 41 seasons when they've owned both a better win percentage and ATS win percentage than their opponent.  Penn State has won the last 13 games in this series, and 12 of the 13 have been by a margin larger than the current point spread!  Indeed, the last five victories were by 25, 39, 29, 13 and 21 points.  The Nittany Lions fall into terrific 98-27 and 171-84 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road favorites off wins.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Spartans last week vs. Northwestern, and they rewarded us with an outright win as a 13.5-point home underdog, 29-20.  But off that major upset, we'll go against the Green and White this Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, double-digit home dogs have covered just 36% vs. foes off a win, if our home dog won outright by 7+ points as a 7-point (or greater) home dog the previous week.  Even worse:  Big 10 teams have gone 4-24 SU and 7-20-1 ATS vs. Ohio State after an upset win the previous game, including 1-9-1 ATS when getting 18+ points.  Take the Buckeyes to massacre Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over South Carolina.  The Bulldogs lost last year at home to these Gamecocks, even though the Bulldogs were favored in that game by 20.5 points.  But you know what they say about "paybacks."  And I fully expect Georgia to avenge last year's loss, as it has gone 17-0-2 ATS when playing with revenge and favored by less than 30 points.  Take Georgia to crush South Carolina.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over LSU.  Last season, the Tigers annihilated the Aggies, 50-7.  Of course, LSU was a better team last year, as it won the national championship.  This season is a much different story, and the Tigers have been installed as a double-digit road underdog on Saturday night.  We'll fade LSU off its 27-24 win at Arkansas last week, as defending national champs have gone 0-11 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points off a conference win.  Meanwhile SEC teams off a conference win are a poor 5-15 ATS when playing away from home against a revenge-minded Texas A&M squad.  Lay the points with the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Baylor.  We had a big play last week on Iowa State against Kansas State, and were rewarded with a 45-0 shutout win.  But we will reverse course this evening and take the Wildcats off that whitewash.  Indeed, Kansas State is 19-0 ATS vs. Big 12 Conference foes if Kansas State owned a .375 (or better) win percentage, lost its previous game by 20+ points, and was not an underdog of 7+ points in the current game.  That bodes well for the Wildcats in Waco this evening.  As does the fact that the Bears are 4-26 ATS off a conference loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points against an opponent off a double-digit loss. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Mississippi State.  The Rebels had last weekend off following back to back SU/ATS wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina.  And that bodes well for them in this game, as rested teams, off back to back wins, in which they scored 45+ points, have gone 37-14 ATS.  Last season, the Bulldogs upset the Rebels, 21-20, which was the second straight year this rivalry game was won by the Bulldogs.  But the revenge-minded team has gone 24-14 ATS in this series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home when playing with double-revenge.  Take Ole Miss minus the points this afternoon

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Auburn.  Alabama's 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season, and has covered its last four.  And none of those games has been close, as the Tide has won by 17, 31, 41 and 60 points.  Today, they'll host rival Auburn, which upset them last season, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  I love Alabama to avenge that defeat, as Nick Saban's teams have gone 26-12 ATS when they were playing with revenge from a loss in a game coached by Saban (and a perfect 10-0 ATS if their foe's Win Percentage was between .701 and .999).  Take Alabama.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Since they lost at Notre Dame three weeks ago, the Tigers have not played a game.  So, they'll have had plenty of time to rest up for this game.  We'll lay the points with the Tigers, as winning teams that won 10+ games the previous season have covered 57% of the time over the last 41 seasons off an upset loss, if they were matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Clemson is 14-7-1 ATS when it was playing with rest.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Northwestern.  The Wildcats shocked Wisconsin, 17-7, as a touchdown underdog last Saturday.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Pat Fitzgerald's men as a road favorite.  For technical support, consider that conference double-digit road favorites are a woeful 38.8% the past 41 years off a home upset win, if they're playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Michigan State.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers remain undefeated, at 8-0, after last week's big win over Appalachian State (which was 6-1 entering the contest).  And they have the 9-1 Liberty Flames on deck.  So, don't be surprised if the Chanticleers get caught looking past the 2-9 Bobcats.  But they really shouldn't as Texas State has covered its last four, including an upset win last weekend over Arkansas State.  This will be the Bobcats' final home game of the season.  And NCAA teams playing their last home game generally rise to the occasion when they play great opponents, as they've covered 60% over the last 41 seasons vs. .900 (or better) foes off an ATS win.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma St Cowboys minus the points over Texas Tech.  Last week, the Cowboys were blown out, 41-13, in Norman by their rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners.  But Okie State is back home in Stillwater today, and we'll lay the points against Texas Tech.  Since 1980, .680 (or better) home teams have covered 60.4% vs. conference foes if our home team was blown out by 20+ points on the road in their last game, and is not favored by 14+ points.  Take the Cowboys.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Kent State.  The Bulls suffered a rare conference ATS loss last week when they only won by 25, as a 31.5-point favorite.  But their victory moved their mark to 3-0 SU, so this game against Kent State (also 3-0) will go a long way toward determining the MAC Title.  The Bulls have been as good at home for their friends in Las Vegas, as any team could be, as they're 17-2 ATS their last 19, including 13-0 ATS their last 13 vs. Mid-American Conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Broncos are 3-0 (and scoring 50.3 ppg), while the Huskies are 0-3 (and giving up 40 ppg), so it's no surprise that Western Michigan is favored by almost three touchdowns today.  Last season, the Huskies shocked the Broncos, 17-14, as a 10-point underdog, so the Broncos will be out for revenge today.  They should get it, as NCAA teams off 3+ wins, that average at least 50 ppg on offense, have covered 61% over the last 41 years as a favorite of 34 points or less (and 73% if their opponent gives up more than 30 ppg).  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights lost 36-33 last week to the Cincinnati Bearcats, but covered as a 4-point home underdog.  They're now favored by double-digits on the road in their final game of the regular season, and I expect a letdown this afternoon against a South Florida team playing its final home game of the season.  Indeed, teams playing their final regular season game of the season on the road, off a straight-up loss in their previous game, have been terrible as big favorites, cashing just 23 of 64 when laying more than 10 points against an opponent playing its final home game of the season.  And the Knights also fall into a negative 19-52 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU home losses.  Finally, the Bulls have covered 18 of 24 as an underdog of +9 (or more) points off an ATS defeat, including 5-0 ATS vs. .667 (or worse) opponents.  Take South Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Notre Dame.  The Heels are lighting up the scoreboard this season.  UNC has scored 156 points over the last three weeks, average 43.1 ppg for the season (against foes that give up 31.2), and get 7.7 yards per play (against foes that allow 6.0 ypp).  They've won all four home games this season (3-1 ATS), and are 10-4 ATS their last 14 at Kenan Memorial Stadium.  Even better:  when installed as a home dog of +5 or more points, North Carolina's a superb 15-4-1 ATS its last 20, including a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes when priced from +5 to +11. I won't fade those numbers.  Nor will I fade a home underdog off back to back wins which scored 100+ points over those two games.  Since 1980, such teams have covered 61.2% of the time.  Take North Carolina to roll at home.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Iowa.  Last week, Nebraska turned in a horrid performance, as it lost 41-23, as a 17-point home favorite.  But off that debacle, we will step in and grab the double-digits with Scott Frost's men.  It's true that Iowa's off 3 SU/ATS wins, but teams off back to back wins have cashed just 39% since 1980 when matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss, if that foe failed to cover by 31+ points in its previous game.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Iowa) is favored between 10 and 15.5 points, then it has gone a wallet-busting 0-15 ATS.  Take Nebraska.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Iowa State.  The Longhorns had last week off to rest, and to prepare for this pivotal Big 12 Conference match-up.  Last year, the Cyclones snapped Texas' 3-game win streak in the series with a 23-21 win in Ames.  But the Longhorns have still won 13 of the past 15 meetings.  And Texas is a super 7-0 ATS its last seven when rested, and playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Texas.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, Utah State handed New Mexico a 38-25 home defeat, so the Lobos will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  New Mexico was blown out by 28 points by Air Force in its last game.  But off that defeat, we'll take the Lobos to bounce back, as revenge-minded road favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have gone 77-43 ATS off a loss by more than 11 points.  Even better:  Utah State is 0-4 SU/ATS on the season, and has failed to cover by an average of 12.62 ppg.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 8-0 and ranked among the Top 25, but have been installed as an underdog on Tobacco Road in this non-conference affair.  This will be the 3rd ACC opponent that Liberty has faced this season, but it will be the first one which currently has a winning record.  NC State is 5-3 on the season, and it has dominated non-conference foes in Raleigh, with 16 straight wins, and 29 of their last 30 (11-6 ATS).  Even better:  at Game 8 forward, undefeated, unrested underdogs, priced from +2 to +6 points, are 0-13 SU/ATS away from home.  Lay the points with the Wolfpack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh's men have (once again) been a major disappointment this season.  After a 49-24 blowout win at Minnesota to start the season, Michigan has lost to Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.  They'll try to right the ship tonight, and I believe they will, as NCAA teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have gone 67-47 ATS in conference games when favored by more than 5 points.  Last year, the Wolverines were also blown out by Wisconsin, 35-14, in the game immediately preceding the Rutgers match-up.  And Michigan bounced back off that loss to rout Rutgers, 52-0.  Same thing here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State.  Iowa State comes into this game with an extra week off following its 38-31 victory over Baylor two weeks ago.  Kansas State, meanwhile, is on a 2-game losing streak following its 20-18 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats won last year's meeting, in Manahattan.  But we'll take the Cyclones to avenge that defeat here, in Ames.  Iowa State is a super 13-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge, while rested Big 12 Conference home favorites have cashed 70 of 117 off a straight-up win.  Lay the points with the Cyclones.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  We played on the Ducks last week in Pullman, WA, and got the cash when they won, 43-29, as a 10-point favorite vs. Washington St.  On Saturday, they're back in Eugene, and will welcome the Bruins, who upset California, 34-10, as a 3.5-point home dog last Sunday.  Unfortunately for the Bruins, double-digit underdog have covered just 26% of conference road games over the last 41 seasons after a 20-point (or greater) upset win over a conference foe, if their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for UCLA in this match-up.  Nor does the fact that the Bruins, themselves, are 1-9 ATS on the Pac-12 road following an upset win at home.  Meanwhile, Oregon is a stellar 73-47-2 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 9-2 ATS vs. conference foes off an upset win.  Take the Ducks to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Rice.  Both of these teams have had several weeks off since their last games.  Rice hasn't played since October 31, when it blew out Southern Miss, 30-6, while North Texas hasn't taken the field since October 17, when it smashed Middle Tennessee, 52-35!  We'll lay the points with North Texas, as rested Conference USA home teams have gone 81-57 ATS vs. conference foes.  Additionally, road teams have gone 34-75 ATS off a 20-point win, when matched up against an opponent off a win by more than 7 points, if our road team was not favored by 3+ points.  Take North Texas minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois.  Both of the teams pulled off upsets last week:  Illinois went into Piscataway, and defeated Rutgers, 23-20, as a 5-point dog, while Nebraska upended Penn State, 30-23, here in Lincoln.  That was Illinois' first win of the season (against three losses), and they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row on this Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 41 seasons, losing teams have gone just 34.1% ATS as a road underdog, if they won outright as a conference road underdog their previous game, and were now matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Even better:  Nebraska's a perfect 9-0 ATS when priced as a favorite of -15 to -30 points against a .500 (or worse) opponent off an upset win, while Illinois is 0-9 ATS when getting more than 15 points off an upset win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.