10* Tennessee over Indianapolis

Note, we are updating the NFL earlier this week because of injury update...QB Mariota appears to be 100%...update later on Saturday...Good Luck.

5* Indianapolis -6-1/2 over NY Jets

MNF SELECTION

BDS

Want to realize some value accrued over night with the line dropping from -7, especially considering the Colts are at home and off a SU road loss to Buffalo.  Further, we note in game #1 the Jets offensively earned 46.25% rushing yards as part of their overall total yardage output vs. a confused Cleveland club.  New York used their running game (154) to control tempo against an adjusting defense.  The won easily 31-10 in New York creating 5 turnovers to bring home an impressive victory.  But, as we know there can be a great division between week #1 and week #2 results.  Versus Buffalo on the road the Colts last week were stymied on the ground (under 4.0 YPC), while, the Bills received great games from Taylor, Harvin and Williams.  Indy was hurt by QB Luck abandoning the running game.  But, the talented signal-caller should take advantage of DB Cromaarite who has been slowed by an injury.  The Colts generated just 25% running plays last week because they fell behind early 24-0.  We look for a critical change in play calling and a more aggressive Indianapolis to susutain a 10-point victory.  This is a critical bounce back game for the Colts, no less in prime time where they show 16-6 ATS.  As chalks on Monday they show 9-2 ATS...Indianapolis!

5* Seattle +3-1/2 not lower...over Green Bay

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow, Good Luck!

10* Philadelphia over Dallas

NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

No other games means as much to the fans in Philadelphia as does this battle with Dallas at the Linc. Historically, NFC East games have been wars to say the least, but this has added meaning considering that RB Murray a former Cowboy, now plays for the Eagles. In addition, the Birds are comng off a SU loss vs. Atlanta. While the Pokes show off a miraculous 27-26 win over NYG.  No doubt the Eagles can not afford to fall 0-2 in the loss column considering all that is riding on the season.  Granted the underdog is 2-7 ATS in the series, while Dallas is a super 6-1-1 ATS in their first road game of the season.  But, they are 0-4 ATS after facing the Giants...MOST IMPORTANT THE EAGLES HAVE A HUGE EMOTIONAL EDGE, especially that Dez Bryant is out. 

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4* Houston+ over Carolina
NFL KEY ROAD WARRIOR
BDS
Not afraid to challenge the number and the Panthers at home. Remember they are without Luke today, and play into a unit with a changing starter at QB in Mallet. He was the starter before the much talked about issue that moved him into #2 behind Hoyer. Hoyer was horrible last week early as the Chiefs buried the Texans, as we predicted. Mallet led Houston late for a few scores. Okay, Carolina did win last week on the road 20-9, but managed just 105 yards rushing

10* DENVER+3..nothing less over KC

I know Andy Reid better than any coach in the NFL, and I can tell you this is not his spot. Look at all the times in the past that Reid has suffered ATS losses laying a small price at home. Plus the KC victory was misleading vs. over valued Houston. On the other side, Denver beat a SUPER BOWL entry Baltimore holding them to 69 yards rushing. Granted the Broncos did not have a great day rushing the football, but remember Baltimore had the #4 rush defense last season (88.3). I love dogs in the early going that have the advantage at the line of scrimmage. TECHS: KC -6 or under, a prolific 1-11 ATS, while Denver shows 11-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC West units...TAKE THE POINTS.

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Play on:  4* Jacksonville (474) +3-1/2 over Carolina

Realize the QB difference, but like the home field, the price and all the emotion the Jaguars will throw into this all important game #1 encounter.  Feel the offense for Carolina is somewhat limited because of recent injuries, and therefore must focus on the talents of QB Cam Newtown.  From the talent department the Jags improved from 2013-to-2014, and now have a viable QB in Bortles who continues to show his developing talent.  I’m not saying Jacksonville will trade points with Carolina, but if their defense is much improved as our reports indicate, a SU win here would be no surprise…The Jags are 8-3 ATS the first game of the season, 7-3 in that role as an underdog.  Carolina is 0-6 ATS in game #1 as a favorite.

5* Seattle+1*** (102) over New England @ 6:30 Eastern

….A.K.A “Deflate Gate”

Once the Super Line hit the sportsbooks the money seemed to be going to the side of the Patriots.  However, our good friend in Las Vegas mentioned the High Rollers that he does business with were all over the Seahawks.  Just keep that in mind for now.

Going back to the recent Conference Championship games, we note the Patriots destroyed Indianapolis and shutdown QB Luck to boot 45-7.  NE finished on a 1-3 ATS run after covering vs. the Colts.  Seattle defeated Green Bay 28-22 in a valued performance by QB Rodgers.  Seattle did not cover, but finished with a super 7-of-8 ATS mark.

It’s Thursday as we write our game analysis.  We find out the fire alarm system in the hotel has gone off twice, maybe three times, since the Patriots arrived in Vegas.  Other distractions include QB Tom Brady being sick.   No matter the Patriots are 14-4 SU, while the Seahawks bring the same record in play.  Seattle is the 12th team to repeat as a Super Bowl entrant.  The Patriots won back-to-back Super Bowls in 2004-2005. New England is 0-4 ATS in their last four Super Bowl encounters, and 4-11 ATS in playoff games.  In addition,   NE is 1-9 ATS on grass.  One critical stat fact is Brady’s incomparable 20 playoff wins but, he is only 10-8 SU since those Super Bowl wins. 

My favorite player in the NFL is QB Russell Wilson who brings energy that can change the tempo and the result of a football game every time out with his running abilities.  He is a PERFECT 10-0 SU against other quarterbacks who have won the SUPER BOWL.  On offense the Pats crushed Indy by running the football creating huge gaps for Brady to throw into.  Believe this will not be the case on Sunday as Seattle has held the opposition to an average of 87 yards a game.  This will force Brady to look more down the field into the solid Seattle defensive secondary.  Key for the Seahawks is their vaunted rushing attack (Lynch) which averages 170 yards a game.  Seattle comes in +10 in turnover margin, New England +15.

We look for a huge running day by RB Lynch this is the Seahawks way to control the tempo keeping Brady on the sideline.  Remember the group from New England is averaging 30 points per game, so Seattle can’t afford to trade points and expect to win.  The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS on grass. The UNDERDOG in the Super Bowl is 10-3 ATS.  Just as important, we know Seattle travels well, so expect the crowd to be supporting Seattle loudly. 

***Line based on the Westgate sportsbook at the time of this analysis..Good Luck.

10* Indianapolis +7 nothing less....over New England

Most will look at this set up and assume a Patriots win and cover, considering the Colts will be playing back-to-back weeks on the road. We'll give the public domain the head nod as they back the overall more talented team being at home.  However, we note inside this series the UNDERDOG has been the play running at 14-5-2 ATS.  In addition, our key game changer is the fact QB Luck is not a standstill signal-caller, he will roll out, option and boot leg.  This will cause problems for the NE defense that was not an issue last week vs. Flacco...Believe this factoid insures the Colts and Patriots will be playing a dead even game until the final buzzer.  Now add in the Patriots spread record in Conference Championship games of 0-5 ATS and you have a MAJOR ANSWER to the right side of this contest.  Our AFC GAME OF THE YEAR is Indianapolis over New England.

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(302) 4* Seattle -7 not higher…over  Green Bay @ 3:05 Eastern

We used the Seahawks in these pages last weekend, but they needed a long INT for a touchdown to grab the cash in the 4th quarter. Clearly, Carolina proved how wrong the national talking heads were about their abilities on the playing field.  But, just like last week Seattle will need to bring it defensively again to defend their Super Bowl crown in the upcoming 2015 edition. Since the beginning of December the Seahawks have been the #1 NFL defense in total yards allowed and in points surrendered.  This is the Packers chief overall concern as Seattle is on a monster 25-2 SU run at home. The Seahawks have won seven straight kept the opposing offenses under control limiting five of the teams to seven points or less.   My favorite player in the NFL is QB Wilson and the leader is 41-13 SU as a starter.  SEATTLE has a huge edge playing their second playoff game in the post season at home, they’re rested and successful with a high level of confidence, especially with their defense healthy.  Granted the Seattle offense centers on Wilson and Marshawn Lynch (1,300+), but electric Wilson gives Seattle an added edge considering Rodgers (no matter success) will not be 100%.  For Green Bay all we can say is it was a team effort vs. Dallas, but the Pokes really lost the game in the first half when they failed to take control of the game with Rodgers obviously gimpy.  As always it will be a high level challenge for the Packers to go into Seattle and win.  When QB Rodgers (4,381) is healthy his 38 touches are a stat to revel over, but if not, GB will need to use RB Lacy often.  The former SEC running back has 9 touches this season with 1,139 yards.  His counter balance on the outside is Jordy Nelson (1,519) who brought home 13 touches to support Rodgers’ arm abilities.  The last time these two met was back in September with Seattle winning 36-16 in Seattle.  KEY:  Seattle’s defense held the Packers running attack to 80 yards on the ground. This does not bode well for the Packers, especially considering the home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the series.  Plus Seattle is HOT against the spread in the playoff rounds with a solid 5-1 ATS mark.  Realize the early money is supporting  Green Bay, but we just can’t see Rodgers’ offense not committing key turnovers allowing the Seahawks scoring chances.

5* Dallas+ over Green Bay

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

...return later with complete analysis, note the line is thundering down, all because of the injury to QB Rodgers, believe this is an over reaction, as many players in the NFL have sustained similar injuries for periods of time without making noise about said injury.  But, with the over zealous networks searching for intel, the construct formulates the injury as almost "life threatening?" Since we are on Dallas no matter, I am not happy about the exchange rate dropping...I will return tonight with our "game" analysis...Have a great weekend.

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Play on:  4* New England (12-4) over Baltimore (11-6) @ 4:35 Eastern

Re:  Baltimore has not played in temperatures less than 38 degrees

The line opened -7-1/2 New England, but has since been driven down to the whole number -7.  Which is to be expected with the Ravens record against the Patriots, and the fact sharps were looking to take numbers rather than laying in this exciting football game.  For those who have had their minds steeped in comet research it is now time for a reality check.  For the Patriots loyal base this is not good news as their favorites have been smashed in recent playoff meetings vs. Baltimore .  Against the spread we find the Ravens 5-0 ATS on the road in playoff games, while inside the series Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS at New England.  But, we look for those trends to end abruptly. We note, the Ravens arrived this post season with help from the Steelers as their offense was short staffed with RB Bell on the sidelines.  Plus Baltimore was fortunate having DT Ngata return from a four week suspension just in time to face Big Ben.  No matter the Ravens travel to New England full of confidence with a solid coach in Harbaugh and history of playoff successes against the enemy.  The Patriots last played the Ravens in December 2012 accounting for a 41-7 blowout for New England.  It was a great day as the Ravens, who some think are the most disliked team in the NFL fell very hard.  So it is clear why there was immediate line movement for Baltimore (Revenge), their successes against Billy B. and the heightened anticipation with the expelling of the Pittsburgh playoff interests and recent spread history.   Plus the Ravens run defense is holding the opposition to 88.3 yards per game.  So, It is critical for NE to establish their ground arsenal to take pressure off Brady and the banged up receiver corpse. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS at home vs. a team with a >.500 road mark.  While Baltimore shows 2-9-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game and 4-11-1 ATS against the American Football Conference.  Looking at each unit the most glaring weakness on either side of the ball is the Baltimore secondary….QB Brady threw 33 touches this year!  New England by 10.

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4* Arizona+ (130) over Seattle @ 8:30 Eastern

There have been situations this season both in college and pro football that have been close to the unbelievable.  The QB injury problems at Ohio State and Utah State in College Football, and now Arizona in the NFL are clear examples. Sunday night the third string QB Ryan Lindley (1-3 as starter) of Arizona gets the call against the #1 scoring defense of Seattle (17.3).  By the way, the Seahawks have held the opposition to under 273 yards per game overall.  Arizona (11-3) is ranked 25th in overall offense (20.3), and have difficulties at times this season scoring points.  Over the last 5 weeks Arizona has been held to 12.8 points per game.  Where Arizona (10-4) is not so-so is on defense as they’ve held nine opponents to seventeen points or less.  No matter, Cardinals have been a resilient team behind HC Bruce Arians.  In their initial game, this season up in Seattle the Seahawks shutdown Arizona 19-13.  Last year Seattle won 34-22 in Arizona, while the Cardinals won at Seattle by a 17-10 count.  This should be a low scoring (36) game with RB Williams trying to control the tempo for the Cardinals offense.  Technically, speaking the bad news for Seattle is their 1-4 ATS mark during week #16.  Arizona has some real strong points as they show 6-0 ATS at home (7-0 SU) AND 7-1 ATS during the month of December.  In the series the home team has covered 5-of-7.  Finally, Arizona is 12-3 ATS vs. the NFC…TAKE ALL THE POINTS…Good Luck.

(102) 4* Jacksonville -3 (buy 1/2 point, if the line is -3-1/2 ) over Tennessee

Okay, we know the Jags have not covered the number as a chalk in 46 games.  However, they are different breed in 2014.  Obviously, much more competitive on the offensive side with the ability of QB Bortles to throw over the top. The Titans show after losing 8 straight game, and now may have to use the inconsistent Henne. No matter, Tennessee is a disgraceful 3-13-2 vs. the AFC and 7-19-1 ATS in the month of December.  Finally, the Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in the series. Please make sure you can buy down to -3, it will surely help...Good Luck!

5* Seattle over San Francisco

I won't spend much time talking about this key angle for Sunday. The basic facts have the Seahawks (9-4) on a 6-1 SU run and looking for control in the NFC.  San Francisco(7-6) and QB Kapernick have gone the other way fundamentally, while dropping three straight ATS.  In fact, Seattle has covered 6 straight in the series, and all though this is DD, we still love the Seahawks, especially since their 33-16 ATS at home in December. Good Luck.

10* Buffalo+ over Green Bay

The Packers fit the mold on Sunday as they show as a road chalk the #1 unit in betting circles.  I'm not degrading the handicap of the public domain.  But, from the technical standpoint the Packers are 2-5-1 ATS after playing on Monday night followed by a Sunday encounter.  On Monday I explained in these pages why Atlanta+ would cover against Green Bay. It's their forgiving defense which causes their on field issues. When we add in the home (Buffalo) field edge in series of 4-0 ATS, you can ascertain my reasoning. From the scheduling standpoint the Packers do not have a "stress" game until Detroit shows down the road. Finally Green Bay has never won in Buffalo.

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Play on:  4* Atlanta+ (179) Green Bay @ 8:30 Eastern

Monday Night Best Bet

Tonight 5-7 Atlanta travels to Green Bay to face the 9-3 Packers in a NFC battle.  Believe it or not the Falcons with their losing record are the leaders in the sorry NFC South.  No unit in the NFC South has a positive net point differential.  On the road Atlanta is 2-4 SU, while the Packers show 6-0 SU at home. The Falcons have a real rough close affecting their playoff hopes with GB, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Carolina left. Atlanta has taken 3-of-4 SU.  Green Bay does lead the series with Atlanta going 14-12 SU, but the Falcons have covered 4 straight in GB. Ironically, if the Packers lose tonight they’ll end up tied for the division lead with Detroit who is 9-4. High flying Green Bay comes in the darlings of their fan base.  QB Rodgers is still #1 in QBR with a 118.6 rating carrying 32 touches and 3,325 yards.  By the way, the three interceptions thrown by Rodgers have come in the three loses by the Packers.  Overall, the Pack is ranked #15 in Total Offense with 377.9 yards a game and 31.7 points per game.  Opposing Atlanta has a productive attack ranked #17 in Total Offense with 374 yards a game and 24.3 points per game.  Defensively, the Pack has key edges in Total Yards allowed with GB 336.8 yards per game vs. Atlanta 403.2 yards given up on average.  Total points per game allowed, GB 20.9 points vs. Atlanta’s 24.9 points. Still, there are dividing technical numbers when we realize the road team is 7-1 ATS in the series with the underdog 6-2 ATS.  Finally, in an odd angle the Packers are 1-7 ATS vs. a losing unit which illustrates they show flat sometimes vs. so-so units. Green Bay has Atlanta, Buffalo and Tampa Bay left before facing Detroit in the final game of the season.  We expect Green Bay not to be 100% focused, despite the MNF venue…TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Seattle +1 over Philadelphia

We had the Eagles over Dallas down in Dallas on Thanksgiving. But, Seahawks are different kind of football. Defense, running QB etc. insures a different result Sunday. We Seattle is not the same team as their Championship team.  But, the Eagles current starting QB Sanchez has faced lesser defensive editions in his starts this season. In addition, the facts are clear that Philly is running football with their OL in tact with the exception Heramens who is out. So, now we see the emergence again of RB Shady McCoy. Yes, the home field in Philly is HUGE EDGE, but we believe you will see QB Sanchez depreciate somewhat Sunday in key 3rd down situations.  In the end QB Wilson will engineer the one play that wins the game.  After all, he is the one QB on field Sunday that has won a SUPER BOWL..Good Luck!

Note: #1 L60 days #1 College Football, #1 in College and NBA hoops combined, #3 in money won +$60,000...SIGN-UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FOOTBALL SEASON AND EARN!

Play on: 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati

The Steelers have lost 2-of-3 (Jets and Saints) and are in a MUST WIN scenrio.  Pittsburgh is 7-5 in the division with the Bengals 8-3-1 leading the North. Granted last time QB Dalton helped the Bengals defeat the Bucs with a solid second-half.  No matter, Cincinnati is very vulnerable defensively ranked #18 in points allowed, while surrendering over 125 yards a game on the ground. This is were we expect Pittsburgh to control the tempo offensively.  With Pittsburgh 13-3-1 ATS at Cincinnati, expect a SU & ATS win by Big Ben and company. Good Luck!

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5* Miami (475) over New York Jets @ 8:30 Eastern

When the 2-9 Jets face the 7-5 Dolphins on Monday night, we believe the score will end up being a one-sided affair with Miami winning out.  After all, the Jets season hopes are long gone, as they now play out the string of remaining games, whereas Miami must keep winning to have any chance of making the post season. New York’s most dominate issue on offense is the QB position with Smith, then Vick and now back to Smith illustrates my mindset, there is no consistency on offense.  Last time out the Jets were smashed by the Bills 38-3. Another huge problem is the sacks given up by the New York offensive line.  This is the reason the Jets fail to generate extended drives for a score.  The issue is counter intuitive to the defense which ends up being on the field to long.  In fact, this is a key reason why New York is ranked #30 in points allowed. The Miami loss to Denver (39-36) really puts immense pressure on the club considering their current record in the division (7-5). Much blame was put on QB Tannehill who has had a great season, but the youngster threw a critical late interception that pretty much closed the deal vs. the Broncos.  When you have young players at key positions they tend to falter at the most inopportune times.  For example, Miami is 0-3 this season in games decided by 4 points or less.  No doubt this battle is very important, and the Dolphins should get lucky with New York -12 in the turnover category.  In the series the road team is on a PERFECT 4-0 ATS run, while Miami has generated bias with their solid 5-1-1 ATS mark in New York.  Overall the Jets are just 2-8-1 ATS L11 times out.  If you’re playing this game the only side is Miami, because of the “need” factor.

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Play on: 10* (269) St. Louis+ over San Diego @ 4:05 Eastern

NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

I guess the question is how healthy is QB Rivers? He is injured most know about it, but the QB is a gamer and will show up on Sunday afternoon.  San Diego is 6-4, while the Rams go on the road with a 4-6 record.  We always think about the Chargers in the realm of an offensive minded club, but their defense has been their strength in 2014 ranked #9 overall, and #6 in points allowed at 19.2 per game. Now let’s get to the big news QB Shaun Hill of St. Louis.  The quarterback guided the Rams to a SHOCKING 22-7 win over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.  His stat line 220 yards passing with one touchdown passing.  With Hill’s ability to stretch the field with his arm, the Rams running game had a surge as running back Tre Mason cashed in with 113 yards his best production of the season. What is lost here is the abilities of the Rams front seven on defense, one of the best in the NFL.  I think will see the Rams shutdown the Chargers running game forcing Rivers to throw into shifting coverage.  Overall, I think the Rams will win 20-17 and again SHOCK the sporting community.  If you’re thinking about playing the Chargers, think again as they field Sunday with a PERFECT 0-5 ATS run.  Also, San Diego is 1-6 ATS in November with the Rams 4-1 ATS in the same month.

5* Cincinnati over Houston @ 1:00 Eastern 11/23

The Bengals responded nicely last week against a flat Orleans (27-10) ship that's fading. They now travel to Houston, a difficult building against a fired up football team bringing the defensive MVP to the playing field. I'm sure because of the situation the public domain is taking a ticket with the Texas club, but we have a different mindset here. Okay, we know Houston is hungry and sit just one game in back of the Indianapolis in AFC South. Their assets obviously are their aggressive defense led by Watt (4 TDs), while having the NFL's #3 ranked rushing attack. Where their weakness lies in the secondary as they have given up almost 300 yards a game.  At this writing Cincinnati is averaging 22.4 points per game. Interesting the Houston defense is rated #30 in the NFL allowing over 389+yards per game.  On the Houston side, QB Mallet gets the call for Fitzpatrick, and he's coming off a solid effort producing a QBR of 95.3.  But, with the Bengals getting healthier on defense, I believe you will see a less effective outing Sunday. The Texans have a solid running game, but look for the Bengals to have a great day stuffing the run. In the Houston leads SU 5-3.  Technically, the Bengals have covered 6 straight in the series and that's the reason for their underdog status. So, from our perspective we have have solid line value at +2, if you can purchase it higher do so.  Remember the 5-5-1 Texans are 2-8 ATS off a SU win, and 2-11 ATS after an ATS win...Cincinnati 24 Houston 17

4* Pittsburgh over Tennessee

MNF SMASH MOUTH WINNER

BDS

5* New England+3 or more over Indianapolis

I am posting this early and will return with our overall analysis, if time surrenders an opening. Already this morning there is line movement down. Play this ASAP, sorry for the issue, Brad.

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5* Denver over St. Louis @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

If there is a no-brainer on the NFL card, I believe you are looking at it.  The Denver Broncos come in 7-2, while the struggling Rams show at 3-6.  To make matters worse for St. Louis they are electing to make a change at the quarterback position with Shawn Hill coming back to the lineup.  The only positive for the Rams is they should be able to take the run away from the Broncos who average under 100 yards a game in that category.  But, they still must find a way to limit the electrifying Peyton Manning, and we all know that’s an impossible task.  I looked at a possible LETDOWN, but just can’t see it based on the current facts and circumstances.  Recall the Rams have a history of playing poorly late in the season and show 2-10 ATS in week #11.  Plus, they are 16-39 ATS after gaining under 250 yards in their last game.  In closing, the Broncos are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS on the road vs. a home unit with under a .500 record. Good Luck.

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10* Seattle+ over Kansas City @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

When the public moved the line from Seattle -1 to KC -1, -1-1/2, I knew my assertions would follow through on the playing field this Sunday.  I love Big Red as an overall technical coach.  And, to support this mindset, if you’ve been following us this season, you know we have been on Kansas City numerous times, including the road test in Buffalo last week.  KC leads the series 32-18, and the last time they played was in 2010 with the “Chefs” winning 42-24.  As we now know Seattle is a SUPER CHAMPION, Kansas City has won just one SUPER BOWL (IV) 23-7 over Minnesota and that’s a “few” years ago. My reasoning, the Seahawks are more structured to handle a championship type game, even on the road.  Seattle is 15-5 ATS vs. winning units and 8-2 ATS on the road vs. >.500 teams.  We know they are just 1-6 ATS in the series, but this “spot” entertains a whole different set of circumstances, including the Seattle ability on defense to mitigate the running game of KC. Good Luck!

4* Philadelphia -7 (not higher) over Carolina

No comment

BDS

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Play on:  4* Baltimore over Tennessee

APPRECIATION NFL SPECIAL SUNDAY

BDS….

Key:  Baltimore is off back-to-back losses. 

You might think we are hoping against hope that the “sloppy” Ravens will come to play putting away the Titans.  And, that’s taking into consideration the up-tick by former LSU QB Mettenberger putting spark in the Titans vanilla offense. Techs, initially, bring negatives as the underdog in the series is 17-5-2 ATS, but Tennessee is 16-35-1 ATS vs. >.500 units. Plus, they are just 2-6 ATS in 2014. Baltimore 7-3-2 ATS in the month of November and 10-4 ATS in Baltimore.  We close with HC Harbaugh 8-1 ATS off a SU & ATS loss vs. a unit off a SU double-digit loss.  Baltimore garners an appreciation move from yours truly…GL

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Play on: 5* Kansas City over Buffalo @ 1:00 EST

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Cashed our NFL GAME OF THE WEEK last time around with New England over Denver.  This Sunday we go up to Buffalo and check out the 5-3 Chiefs and the 5-3 Bills.  We know the Chiefs very well simply because we have a strong book on HC Andy Reid since was the Eagles mentor here in Philadelphia.  Last week the Chiefs won and covered in a 24-10 win over the error prone Jets.  Buffalo did the same winning an covering before their bye over those same Jets 43-23.  The opening line was -2, it’s now down to -1 favoring KC.  Yes, the early money has been on Buffalo.  At the quarterback position we now have a wash as Alex Smith has been consistent of late leading the Chiefs to wins in 5-of-6 SU.  Replacement QB for Buffalo Kyle Orton has brought the improving Bills to victory in 3-of-4 SU.  Orton took over for the struggling E. J. Manuel and the Bills have prospered. But, this time around the Bills offense meet the #1 passing defense (199) in KC.  Over statistically both clubs are similar KC #5 on defense Buffalo #7.  Offensively, KC is #26, while Buffalo is #28.  The last time these two met was last year as KC won 23-13 garnering two fortunate defensive touchdowns.  Techs have the Bills 1-4 ATS off a SU win of more than 14 points and 9-24-1 ATS off a SU win.  The road team has covered 5-of-6 in the series.  We realize Buffalo 6-1 ATS vs. KC, the Chiefs did not have QB Smith in the equation.  Plus KC is a super 10-3 ATS on the road. With QB Smith starting his football team is 21-1-1 SU.

10* Tampa Bay +3 over Atlanta

NFL TOP PLAY UNDERDOG

BDS...

Love this situation as we have the Atlanta Falcons (?) laying points on the road. This scenario carries the EMOTIONAL ANGLE of the day as we catch the Bucs off a win trying to extract a measure of revenge vs. Atlanta for their 56-14 beating up in Atlanta earlier this season.  This is a MUST WIN for the Bucs who's suffering fans have not seen their favs win at home in 2014. Stay with the Bucs today.

10* Cincinnati over Cleveland

NFL TOP PLAY LATE MONEY MOVE

BDS

Note, the Bengals are on an incredible home streak of late, and look to build on their early "MO" this season. The home unit in this series is 3-0-1 ATS.  We know the dog has been the play overall in the series the last six years, but Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS vs. winning home team. And, there is a mid-week NFL system that's cashed 3-of-4 in the month November. Finally, the play of RB Hill who is emerging for the Bengals allows for a major play here. GL

10* Baltimore over PittsburghNFL KEY SUNDAY NIGHT EDITIONBDS...It might appear we are running into a wall on Sunday night with the Ravens on the road, and the Steelers in REVENGE for that 26-6 beat down applied by the Ravens in the early going.  But, traveling Baltimore with a solid coach in Harbaugh are huge off a su loss at 4-1 ATS.  Plus the Steelers have been playing, somewhat, over their heads offensively.  And, they show 2-7 ATS off a SU win.  Both clubs 5-3 SU, we will see a critical game for each here on Sunday night.  Look for a buzzer job tonight with Baltimore grabbing the cash....BDS

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5* (468) New England over Denver @ 4:25 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

This afternoon up in Foxboro the 6-2 Patriots take on the 6-1 Broncos in what should be another classic AFC showdown.  Of course, it’s Manning vs. Brady (Manning is 5-4 SU L9) in the battle of fabled quarterbacks.  In the series New England has won 10-of-13 SU. But, New England is on a MASSIVE home winning streak of 13 games coming into action. Last week they crushed hapless Chicago 51-23. After a slow start the Pats behind Brady have won 4 straight games in the month of October, and they did so with some nagging injuries. Denver shows off a 35-21 win over hated San Diego.  Manning threw 3 touches with 286 passing yards overall.

Statistically, the Pats are #8 in total offense with 29.8 points per game with 363.1 yards on average.  The Broncos are rated #14 in total offense with 32 points per game carrying 398.4 yards per outing.  On defense, despite the rankings the numbers are close with #3 Denver limiting the opposition to 20.3 points per game with 315.3 yards on average.  New England is rated #17 in total defense holding opponents to 21.7 points per game and 340.5 yards per outing.   A key here will be the turnover ratio, New England is #1 in the take-away vs. give-away margin with +11, while NE +4.  Techs have the Broncos 9-20 ATS on the road vs. a winning home unit!  Further, NE has covered 6 straight at home vs. a >.500 road team.  In the series the home team has covered 4 straight, while NE has covered 4-of-5 ATS overall.

3* San Diego +2 1/2 or +3 over Miami

Try buying 1/2-point to bring this number to +3. Note, if San Diego can run the football for over 100 yards they'll accrue a SU and ATS win. Look the Chargers have won 10-of-13 ATS and have played well this season. This is a critical game in the AFC...SAN DIEGO+

NFL APPRECIATION MOVE

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10* Washington+ over Minnesota

NFL LATE MONEY MOVE

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5* New Orleans over Carolina

NFL LATE MONEY MOVE

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10* Dallas -9 1/2 over Washington

NFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH

Note, we are realizing this game early because of the public perception and line movement. So, take advantage of the number and play it ASAP...Thank you and best of luck!

10* NEW ORLEANS -1 over Green Bay

NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

Our 10* plays are RED HOT 8-0 coming in with COLLEGE and NFL selections.

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4* Miami over Jacksonville

NFL ROAD WARRIOR EDGE

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10* Pittsburgh -3 or less over Houston

NFL LINE VALUE TOP PLAY

102014

Play on: 10* Pittsburgh (478) over Houston @ 8:30 Eastern

MNF TOP PLAY

BDS

Cashed a nice 5* ticket last Monday night with the 49ers and now look for additional capital for the MNF bankroll.  The #1 reason why we have the Steelers on our ticket this evening is EMOTION.  After being axed by traditional (and neighborhood rival) Cleveland last week we fully expect to see Pittsburgh play their best game this season. Granted they are not as soliid as the 2011 team that went 12-5 SU, but they have an outstanding chance to right their ship here.  Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU on Heinz field on Monday night. Plus they show at 5-1 ATS in week #7, while the Texans show at 0-6 ATS on Monday night.  Finally, with all the negative press and back biding hitting the home town Steelers, look for coach Tomlin to author a much needed bounce back win…Good Luck!

10* KC+4 over San Diego

BDS

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

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5* San Francisco -3 over STL

Not afraid to lay -3 (nothing higher) here, especially with the Niners off a win, and the Rams off a phony close encounter with Philly. The Eagles prevent defense led the Rams to three touchdowns.  Realize this series favored the home team in ATS markers, but SF is an incredible 12-2 ATS in October which illustrates how well Harbaugh adjusts to the season.  Also, SF is 22-6 ATS in MNF.