home team in series 9-0 ATS, and until this string is broken must favor Miami and their ability to score and quite possibly bring this under the posted total to ensure an ATS cover.  Also, Miami has covered the L4 at home in the series.  Brady will be cocked but, resilient home unit will grab the cash.  Good Luck.

5* Green Bay (112) over Minnesota @ 1:00 Eastern

Xmas eve and we’re loaded with football to say the least.  Arch rival Minny travels to GB where they are 2-5 ATS L7 times out.  Granted the underdog has been the recent side but, the line is telling us something from the math and power rating standpoint.  Minnesota, after a solid start this season has fallen on hard times dropping seven of the last nine and punishing their backers.  The Vikings are #3 rated unit in total defense, so they should have some success containing Rodgers but, not at this price with so much at stake.   The Vikings are 1-4 ATS L5 on the road, while GB is 7-2 ATS during December.   Further, the Packers complete with a 4-1 ATS mark on Saturday and 6-2 ATS in week #16.  These are strong indicators they finish strong in the money column and the improved should help the Packers here.

Here we go again with the Bears, as I have been looking for spots to play the unit.  Now that former Eagles QB Barkley has started the improve, feel the Bears are in a nice spot to catch the 'Skins napping.  Remember, Washington is 0-4 ATS after a DD loss at home.  Traveling the next week surely helps our cause.   In fact, they are 0-5 ATS in this price range.  If you haven't noticed Chicago is an amazing 5-0 ATS as a home underdog in their building this season.  With week #16 in mind, BEARS!

4:05 Eastern

5* (321) New Orleans +3 over Arizona

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Hard to believe the line is only three out in the desert, but nevertheless we’ll go with the traveling Saints (5-8).  Arizona shows the chalk with a similar 5-7-1 record, but 5-2-1 SU at home with +22-point differential overall this season.  Back to New Orleans as they line up +7 in point differential on the year with a 2-4 SU mark on the road. Remember, though, these type road clubs, in this price range off a loss come out and play well as a norm the next week, and Arizona is just 4-10 ATS L14 home and 1-6 ATS L7 times out.  Saints a productive 6-0 ATS vs.

10* New Orleans+ 3-1/2 over Carolina

Held off until we garnered the latest injury, and as we thought the Panthers have key injuries on sides of the ball, and their secondary should be destroyed QB Brees.  Like the way the Saints are playing now despite some short comings.  Good Luck.

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4* Atlanta (307) over Tampa Bay @ 8:25 Eastern

Thursday night the Falcons (5-3) show off a huge mind bending 33-32 win over Green Bay down south.  Whereas, the home standing Bucs (3-4) look to recharge after a 30-24 OT defeat versus visiting Oakland.  The better football team coming in, Atlanta shows with a 5-3 SU & ATS in 2016.  Tampa Bay fields a 3-4 SU & ATS legend.  In this series, the chalk has covered 8-of-11 in Vegas.   By the way, out of the two the Bucs have the more difficult emotional assignment coming off an OT loss.  They play with QB Winston 6-14 SU in his NFL starts.  Since the Falcons show off a more positive experience and bring same season revenge, must back QB Ryan and company.  Remember, Atlanta is 5-1 ATS on Thursday and 5-0 ATS in road games.  Good Luck

10/27/16

5* Jacksonville (101) +3-1/2 over Tennessee @ 8:25 Eastern

Theme:  “Grab the Hook with JAX”

Yes, we realize this is a critical home game for Tennessee after losing SU to Cleveland and Indianapolis on this same field.   But, the Jags are 4-1 ATS after their defense collapsed allowing 30 or more points in their most recent contest.  Last week Jacksonville dropped a 33-16 encounter to Oakland down in Florida.  Like the Jaguars, the home standing Titans won back-to-back games but, then lost last week 34-26 at Indianapolis.  Defensively, Tennessee suffers allowing key red zone points.  By the way, JAX defeated Indianapolis in week #4 on the road.    Overall on defense the Jaguars allow just 290 yards (#5) a game, and can win this SU if they hold Tennessee to roughly the same output. And, after surrendering 30 or more points to their most recent opponent Tennessee comes up short in Vegas…1-9-2 ATS, and 2-8-1 ATS L10 as a HOME favorite.  In closing, recall Jacksonville is 8-1-2 ATS in the series and will grab the money here.  Good Luck! 

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(478) 10* Denver over Houston @ 8:30 Eastern

Granted this is not the Broncos best role of late at home, laying points.  However, l’m sure I don’t have to tell you how much it means for Denver to have head coach Gary Kubiak back on the sidelines after suffering complex migraines a few weeks ago.  Going all the way back to his days as a Texas A&M quarterback, the coach has always been a tenacious competitor.  Now his unit shows off back-to-back losses to Atlanta and San Diego, and outstanding quarterbacks in Ryan and Brees.  So, it appears to be a tailored made situation for the Broncos, at home on Monday night.  The young Texans come off a scintillating OT win (26-23) over Indianapolis, and have played the majority (4-2) of their games this season in the friendly confines of NRG Stadium.  Houston is 4-2 on the season (3-2-1 ATS), while the home standing Broncos bring a 4-2 mark both SU & ATS.  With this being such an important game for each unit, one of the keys we look at is the turnover numbers.  Denver is ranked #9 in the NFL (11-8) with a plus three but, visiting Houston is rated #26 (6-10) at minus four.  On the field, and considering the current number in Vegas playing a clean game will be paramount for both teams.  Recently, both Denver and Houston have been losing propositions on Monday night, but the Broncos have covered at a 4-1-1 ATS mark at home and bring a 12-5 ATS off a SU loss.  Finally, the Texans have faced two quality teams this season in New England and Minnesota and were completely blown away.

Buy 1/2 point if you can to reduce this situation to Baltimore -3.  Good Luck with the current scenario. Brad Diamond

(269) 4* Cincinnati+ 3-1/2 not lower, over Pittsburgh @ 1:00 Eastern

Pittsburgh crushed Washington 38-16 after Big Ben threw 3 touches to augment the surprising easy win.  The tables turn this week when the Steelers face one of their arch rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals broke the Jets wings with a 23-22 huge victory at New York in week #1.  Also, if you’re into ATS streaks we welcome you to the Cincinnati side of the ledger….how about 9-0 ATS in road games on-deck.  That is the reason for the conservative home chalk number placed aside Pittsburgh -3-1/2.   The road unit and underdog is on a 3-1-1 ATS roll in the series.  Cincinnati is just 1-4-1 ATS in this building, but shows 6-0-1 ATS in week #2 and 9-2-2 ATS off a SU win.  Despite Pittsburgh having corresponding positive trends, they play Sunday with a 1-5-1 ATS mark on Sunday after a MNF encounter.  This spot calls out Cincinnati!

Note, computer problems, analysis should restart Monday afternoon. Sorry, Brad.

10* JETS +1 (101) over Buffalo @ 8:25 Eastern
AFC THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH
Brad Diamond Sports
Yes, Rex Ryan and his Bills have defeated the Jets in 5 straight games.  However, can't even suggest the home team considering they dribbled through 178 yards of total offense against the stout Baltimore defense.  They managed just 11 first downs last week. The Jets played a more talented team in Cincinnati, but lost a buster 23-22. Right now the Jets are higher on our power ranking chart and seem to have sufficient enough defense to limit RB McCoy who slashed them for 112 yards on this same field last November. Also, the Jets defense pressured QB Dalton of Cincinnati in week #1. That's key, putting pressure on the Bills passing game that couldn't throw down field last week against the Ravens.  The Bills are 7-18-1 ATS when they go for under 90 yards rushing in their last game. New York comes in a solid 5-1-1 ATS in week #2 and 6-2-1 ATS vs. the AFC East.  With New York defensive line starting to improve, we'll back the Jets to knock off Rex and company.

5* SAN FRANCISCO+3 over LA

Another historic game on the west coast with the Rams moving back after 21 years in STL.  Although favor a unit with a relocation angle, especially in an old rivalry, still can't trust the inconsistent Rams.  When you figure no adores Chip Kelly any longer since moving to the pro ranks, it unthinkable going with the Duck Dandy.  However, this long and historic series seems to favor the Niners on MNF.  Remember SF is 24-6 ATS on Monday night and 5-0 ATS in week #1 fights.  LA with a good coach still can't avoid the turnover with their 3-12 ATS record in week #1 sets. Good Luck!

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5* Miami (6-10) +10-1/2 (471) over Seattle (11-7)…NFL GAME OF THE WEEK @ 4:05 EASTERN

Not afraid to go into the teeth of the Seahawks den knowing we have a Dolphins unit who will come to play for four quarters no matter the score.  Surely, we believe that line assertions -7-1/2 to -10-1/2 have the public thinking blowout, but we simply don’t agree.  The Dolphins finished 6-10 SU last season, exited the coach and now the franchise has invested in first year mentor, and former OC, Adam Gase.  He has a difficult venue to begin his head coaching tenure playing at Seattle and facing the experienced Pete Carroll (7th year) who is 68-40 SU in his coaching career.  The Seahawks lost in the playoffs 31-24 to Carolina, and are anxiously ready to erase the stigma from that game. Last year Seattle was 5-3 SU @ home and 4-4 ATS. Miami went 3-6 SU & ATS in road games last season, but the Dolphins seem more excited about this game with their new HC.    In their three road wins last season, they defeated Washington in week #1, Philadelphia and New England in the final week of the season.  This preseason they appear more satisfied with the continued development of quarterback Tannehill (4,288) who is coming off a nice stat year.  Remember, Miami is 5-1 SU & ATS against the superior Seahawks, and I won’t discount their resolve today knowing their opening against difficult odds CenturyLink Field.  The value for this handicapper is with the points and the Dolphins.

10* Denver +3 or +3-1/2 (452) over Carolina

452...10* DENVER +3, try to buy 1/2 point to get to three-and-a half. No matter, we like the Broncos as SB Champion is getting points at HOME!  Granted no Manning, but recall 24-10 SB win by Denver illustrated their defense more than the attack unit. Also, the losing unit in Super Bowl virtually never starts strong documented by a 1-14 ATS mark in game #1 of the season. Good Luck this year!

10* DENVER +6..nothing lower over Carolina

We project this battle to be one of the great ones in the storied history of the Super Bowl.  If we look back to last week, it was noted how Carolina dominated Arizona who had key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, missing the "Honey Badger" above all and his incredible "field efficiency" numbers which are off the charts.  Also, QB Palmer still showed signs of the finger injury, no matter what the observers thought.  I have been doing this 40-years and see the Cardinals play all the time, Palmer was no exacting and the stats prove that out.  Granted the Panthers defense had a say in his effectiveness, but early touch in the 2nd half could have changed the "MO" in the game...and we liked Carolina.  Here the Panthers are being solid hard everywhere as the line opened truly at -3-1/2 last Sunday, and is now at the aforementioned incredible transition.  Granted Carolina is the superior physical team, and Cam is the stellar player on the field.  However, we can't discount the gritty ride Denver has had all season, and their sensational defense against QB Brady and the Pats.  The Broncos defense during the challenging regular season held the opponents to 18.2 points per game, and 283 an outing.  They held offenses to a third down conversion ratio of 35% which is more effective than Carolina.  This is critical because of Newton's running ability...If Denver is successful in this aspect of the game...they win SU.  As far as the Denver offense and Manning looking at a slower paced approach (TOP) and with a much different game plan than what was shown against NE...This is really the issue as HC Kubiak will not be out coached in this situation. Remember Denver coming into the season had the #10 SOS vs. Carolina who showed #27.  Granted against the spread in the playoffs the Panthers have a winning mark, but this is CLASSIC UNDERDOG set for this handicapper, as the majority of the nation is taking the Denver abilities for granted which accrues point spread value.  The Broncos are 4-1 ATS vs. winning units, and no matter, I believe they will cash here in a VERY CLOSE GAME!

4* PITTSBURGH +7-1/2 over Denver @ 4:40 Eastern

A unique situation, Big Ben and company accruing value with the best offensive players out because of injuries.  So, you can rightfully understand why the current line gives all sorts of value.  And, not to discount, the situation accrues a level of relaxation for Denver's defense knowing they will not face Brown or Williams...In turn, the Steelers OC has already stated they will have to be very conservative to have a chance Sunday?  I have a gold farm under my house, would you buy that?  You can clearly understand the dog in the series is 6-2 ATS.  In addition, the last time these two met in a playoff game, the STEELERS were a -7-1/2 favorite at Denver.  Now, the number is reversed...VALUE!

4* ARIZONA -7. not higher over Green Bay

Hate going against the stat guys in the office, but the fundamental differences between these two are too much for me to pass up.  First, HC Arians approach to big games is effective and precise. He is a much under rated head master.  Granted the Cards have injuries, but the Packers will fear the force at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  When we chase big playoff games it means so much to have a running game and a defense...DITTO ARIZONA.  Don't be fooled by the easy win last week in Washington by the Pack. yes we were on the right side.  Still, different set of issues facing Green Bay, being on the road for the second straight week. while the Cards healed their bodies and watched their Washington encounter.  The home unit has covered 5-of-6 in the series, while the Cards show an AMAZING 27-12 ATS off a loss by 20+ (Seattle).  If you don't think the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Arizona here, my, my...CARDINALS!

5* NEW ENGLAND -5, not higher…(302) over Kansas City @ 4:35 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

Granted the current win streak of 11 games by the Chiefs is a number viewed with great respect.  And, most will consider Kansas City’s 3-1 ATS mark at New England as a go with sign for the Chiefs.  However, overall the Patriots come 12-3-2 ATS home vs. winning road units L17 times out. The crowd favorite KC a horrid 1-6 ATS in NFL playoff games last seven.  New England is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS L10 playoff games, at home 4-3 ATS in the post season since 2011.  In addition, this is a monster REVENGE game for the Pats and coach Bill Belichick after NE was smashed in KC (2014) 41-14. The Chiefs went out to a 27-0 lead, augmented by 8 sacks of All-Pro quarterback Tom Brady. Also, the last game played in NE was in 2011...34-3 for the Patriots.  During the 2015 regular season KC ranked #27 in total offense just 331+ yards per game, and #26 in total defense allowing just 339 yards a game.  NE rated #6 with 374 yards per game on offense, defensively #24 with 339 yards allowed per outing.  Recall last week vs. Houston the Chiefs capitalized on a QB with virtually few viable scoring drives in that 30-0 loss.  This time around QB Brady and the Patriots have accrued some rest time to heal the numerous injuries sustained during the regular season.  Comparable offensive productivity night and day between Houston and the Patriots.  Finally, Chiefs OL has allowed 46 sacks in 2015, so look for the NE defense to challenge early in passing downs! New England.

5* GREEN BAY over Washington

NFL KEY BEST BET ANGLE

BDS

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10* Minnesota+ (104) over Seattle @ 1:05 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR…BDS

Rarely do we go against the Seahawks, but I believe we have a special situation Sunday afternoon in Minnesota.  To add a little “outside edge” to the battle, the weather projection is estimated to be around zero degrees.  Already, I am thinking about former legendary HC Bud Grant’s approach to this type scenario, but then again the Vikings have that already with their running game and the ability to play one down at a time.  Surely, we are aware of the 38-7 beating the Seahawks put on the Vikings in December on this same field…So, we have same season REVENGE, on the same field in less than perfect weather conditions.  Remember Seattle jumped out early in that encounter and stifled the Vikings run game, which led to throwing the ball in obvious down and distance situations.  This gave the #1 rushing defense even more of situational edge.  Seattle (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS) is on a solid 6-1 SU run coming in with QB Wilson (24/1) in solid form.  In that run the Seahawks out pointed the opposition 224-98.  They have been playing on a high for sure.  RB Lynch (abdominal) will be starting for the first time since November.  Minnesota (11-5, 13-3 ATS) has had some inconsistency but, they were hurt with RB Peterson’s injury.  He is expected to be 100%.  The Vikings (144.9) start with the #4 running game in the NFL.  Defensively, they have held opponents to 18.9 points per game, and are one of the better run defenses in the NFL.  When you consider they are at home Sunday, the unit should be more than ready to cut off the big plays by QB Wilson.  Last year in the NFL playoffs, the underdog went 6-4 ATS.  Granted Seattle comes 5-2 ATS in the month of January, but Minny has been money in the bank at home 10-3 ATS.  And, at home they show a PERFECT 5-0 ATS versus winning road units.  With REVENGE, the weather, home field and the EMOTIONAL EDGE…Take the points!

4* KC -3, not higher over Houston

NFL POWER ANGLE

BDS

4* SEATTLE+ over Arizona

NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* BUFFALO +3, nothing lower over New York

NFL SUPER CONTEST TOP PLAY...8-2 L2 WEEKS

BDS...HAPPY NEW YEAR!

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5* Atlanta (110) +7 or +6-1/2 over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

Prefer everyone buying ½ point!  Recently, we have been going against the Panthers looking for their time to drop anchor and pick their tag of “normalcy” and a SU loss…no dice!  Carolina continues to cash SU wins, but the Giants did not give up last week, thankfully.   Here the task gets a little more difficult against a NFC South opponent in Atlanta (7-7) who is going nowhere, so this is there SUPER BOWL!  Clear talent differential for sure, but the running game for the Panthers #3 overshadows the #17 unit for Atlanta.  So, if the Falcons can find their short passing game and control a little better at the line of scrimmage, as they did last week vs. JAX they may win this SU.  After all, we know, even “SUPERMAN” is human!  Also, there is a bit of revenge, double carded if you will with Carolina blasting the home unit 72-3 in the last two encounters.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS week #16, with the home team 6-1 ATS in the series.  Plus, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing last time out…ATLANTA!

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Play on:  5* (103) Washington +3 over Philadelphia @ 8:25 Eastern

Okay, the Redskins are a poor road unit, have not played well on the road this season.  However, they have won back-to-back games late in the season and face their most challenging event thus far off a nice roll.  Philly is damaged physically coming in with a weak an injured secondary, let alone a “chasing” LB unit that can’t assimilate a big play when needed. Oh, thin on the DL too. Another injury inside their defensive starter set would cripple their current rotation.  Offensively, QB Bradford is playing well, but trying to overcome a “score” deficit tonight most lightly will change Chip’s game planning!  The only way the Eagles win this, is if they jump up early and control the game?  Series:  Underdog 4-1 ATS, ‘Skins 6-of-8 in Philadelphia.  Also, historically when an Eagles football team is fading at the end of season and coming off a DD loss at home…0-8 ATS. Realize Washington brings conflicting ATS numbers, but “mindset” here all WASHINGTON!

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4* Minnesota (306) over Chicago @ 1:00 Eastern

The Vikings are just 2-4 ATS since 2009 when laying singles in this highly contested division long-time rivalry.  In November Minnesota (-1-1/2) did win out 23-20 at Chicago.  The Bears were limited to just 305 yards in total offense. Overall, Chicago defense allows 5.5 yards per play, 62% completion effectiveness.  So, the visitor will have their hands full again as they face a unit looking to make the playoffs, while playing 3-of-4 really tough games vs. Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona.  Coming in Minnesota is 10-3 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS at home, 9-0 ATS off a SU loss and 12-3-1 ATS in December.  Remember the Vikings average 4.6 yards per game rushing which should be the answer to their ball control keys this afternoon.  Chicago has a sure fire malady in PK Robbie Gould who again last week vs. Washington cost them dearly.  Plus the offense has suffered this season 3rd down…42%.  Chicago being 5-0 ATS as roadies does not give an automatic, especially considering 6-13 ATS record inside the division.

5* NY Giants+ over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Our bowl game of the week PUSHED here because of the timing of the line insert, but a national level the LOBOS covered based on the Saturday line in most stores.  This situation is real special because I have an old friend that's attending looking for the upset, so with that in mind...The Giants have shot themselves in the foot this season despite centered in the NFC East.  Winning last week over Miami stirred some hope in the Big Apple, but the Giants running game needs some stretch to win SU here.  Carolina is undefeated, 10-3 ATS, 5-1 ATS and looks dominating doing so!  QB Newton is every bit the stellar star we thought when he was a youngster at Auburn. He hates to lose and will take over the game when needed.  Still, over the last ten years these New Yorkers are 4-2 SU & ATS vs. the Panthers...the favorite in the series is 3-3 ATS since 2006.  Also, changing roles from one year to the next accrues value this time to New York.  Carolina played 9 games last season on the road...they were the UNDERDOG IN ALL GAMES!  In 2015 with the change road SOS schedule they have given -3, -3, -3-1/2, -1 and -5-1/2...ALL AGAINST LOSING TEAMS...Carolina lost ATS last time out on the highway versus New Orleans with the heaviest price of -5-1/2.  We must remember the lines makers are human also, and they find difficult to change character until there is a definitive long-term picture with corresponding results.  Note, here the line is only -4?  Carolina is 7-1 ATS vs. NFC, NYG 6-2 in December...more importantly playing in New York going back decades has always been a difficult venue for winning marque teams...There is no doubt Carolina has MOTO pass to a PERFECT season, but the immense pressure of the construct will show and give Eli and company a great chance to win the WHOLE GAME...Good Luck!

FREE TOTAL:  Carolina/NYG OVER 

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10* Pittsburgh +3 (105), nothing less….over Cincinnati @ 1:00 Eastern

Spent many years doing weekend radio in the “Steel City” accruing friends and contacts!  All I can tell you is, they are buzzing about Big Ben and the Steelers.  Granted it plays right into the Las Vegas line movement that has the number down to +2-1/2 at the Westgate on the Strip.  We specified you must have +3 to qualify this situation as a GOY!  Granted the Bengals have had a solid season but, the last two weeks Pittsburgh is playing Super Bowl caliber football.  The Bengals show 10-2 SU in the division, the Steelers suffering without Big Ben 7-5 SU.  Visiting Pittsburgh is not awed by the site or Cincinnati winning and covering the last three in the series, covering 4-of-5 on the road.  In addition, historically Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been money in the bank as a road underdog against a unit off a SU/ATS win.  Last week the Bengals chewed up the Browns 37-3, so we expect somewhat of a slow start for Cincy here in the first quarter…Remember Pittsburgh leads the series 55-35.  Critical is the Steelers secondary which has been hurt by the big play this season, so look for these two, despite weather, to trade points all day….We close with the Bengals 1-7 ATS in week #14, with Pittsburgh 13-2-1 ATS in Cincinnati…Now you can understand the heavy money overload the last two days…Good Luck, and thank you!

(474) 10* San Diego -4, not higher...over Chicago

The Chargers return home after a 3-point road loss to the Baltimore Ravens back on November 1st.  The last time they played on Monday Night was back on October 12th here, losing 24-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Overall HC Mike McCoy’s unit shows up 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS.  The Chicago Bears travel to the west coast after losing at home to the Minnesota Vikings on November 1st.  They are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS this season.  They have recent losing numbers ATS in the month of November, and the Vikings loss should bring a letdown despite the MN lights and the travel.  Plus, defensively they are allowing almost 29 points per game.  Chicago shows 8-16 ATS as an underdog and 9-14-1 ATS in non-division games.  This is the first Monday edition for the Bears in 2015.  During the last ten years the series is 1-1 SU & ATS.  San Diego has dropped four straight to Baltimore, Oakland, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, so they will be sky high for a chance to break their deficit run and show 5-0 SU vs. the NFC and 3-1 ATS at home on MNF.  Granted WR Allen is out and the OL is being restructured, but this will only heighten the determination of QB Rivers who has helped pull the Chargers together in past losing runs.  Without RB Forte in the game, the Bears running attack has suffered….Look for a high scoring game San Diego 37-29.

3* Pittsburgh -5-1/2 over Oakland

Tried to play this using the money line on this site, but could not acquire same. This is the reason for the moderate valuation of the Steelers chances of covering the subject number vs. traveling Oakland. The Raiders smashed the Jets last week as I and all the system players hit the highway.  NY was just not ready for the ball position of Oakland!  Here the situation is reversed as now the under valued Raiders travel east to facing a unit that is 4-4 SU in a division chasing the 8-0 Bengals. To say this is a 'MUST WIN' for Pittsburgh is an under statement!  Last time out Big Ben and company dropped a horrid 16-10 encounter to...CINCY.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS after Cincinnati and 4-1 ATS vs. West coast unit at home during the regular season. The Raiders come in 4-12-1 ATS off a SU win.  With Pittsburgh at home and in rebound mode, we will back the STEEL CITY GANG!

10* MINNESOTA -1 over St. Louis @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL TOP PLAY SUNDAY...BDS

Don't forget our top play Monday Night in the NFL. We are hitting 64% in the league.  Today the Rams travel to Minny in a "must win" situation as they show two games behind Arizona in the division. The Vikings 5-2 SU are just one game behind the Packers.  Again last week the Vikings did the job running the football for 147 yards on the road vs. Chicago. Knowing HC Fisher of the Rams quite well, look for the defense to stack the box tyring stop that edge.  This will allow QB Bridgewater more time and openings for the passing game...Offensively, the Rams can never win big games consistently unitl QB Foles starts hitting over 200 passing taking pressure off the running game.  STL won 27-6 last week over disoriented SF, and the public has bought in buying us real value that is on a 5-0 SU perfect run at home, 6-0 ATS in the same building. Until Foles proves us wrong...MINNESOTA!

4* NY Giants +4 nothing less...over Philadelphia @ 8:30 Eastern

Yesterday our 10* late move was right on as we waited for the LB starters for Seattle before making a play.  With their MLB being out the run chase and read went south for the home standing Seahawks. You see, the Panthers were outstanding on 3rd down running the football, eventually allowing for their passing attack to take home the cash at the end.  Our other selections losers no less, Arizona OVER, the Cardinals were on the Steerlers nine yard line with under a minute and could have generated a nice back door for us...not so, as all day the Steelers stifled their running game forcing QB Palmer in difficult down and distance situations.  The Buffalo call, was a bad beat for sure, the 'Cats really do show like a prime edition this football season.

Tonight, we are uning the Giants plus the points, knowing the line dropped from +5-1/2.  Not excited by the change in value, but the latest is #13 will play for the Giants. No matter this is a division game and when Philly and NYG come together it is a war!  The Giants are 8-1 ATS vs. the NFC team with a losing record and 8-1 ATS as an NFC East unit off off a SU victory.  You might note that NYG is double revenge...NYG!

5* (254) Buffalo +3-1/2 over Cincinnati (A)

NFL: 8-1-1 ATS...NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Bengals were in a similar situation last week laying -3 to talented Seattle surviving in OT 27-24. We note, the Sea Chickens were afforded a fumble recovery for a TD close to the Bengals goal line, which the game in balance for the visitor. This is desperation game for HC Rex Ryan who plotted through five games with a 3-2 mark (2-3 ATS). The wins were against hapless Miami (R), Tennessee (R) and Indianapolis in week #1...27-14 on this same field as a +1-1/2 underdog. The Bills led 24-0 in the third quarter and then coasted to a huge win. The Bills held Indy to 64 yards rushing generated by the big lead and QB Luck, but the Colts supplied three key turnovers. So, my suggestion here is that Bills need to jump in early and secure the lead and emotional props which comes from playing in from of their rabid home fans.

Cincinnati comes in 5-0 SU mark 4-0-1 ATS. Their only game booked as an underdog was against the forgiving defense of Baltimore (+2) in 28-24 in Grab Town. The Bengals have defeated 2-3 Oakland, 2-3 San Diego, 1-4 Baltimore, 1-4 KC and 2-3 Seattle...not "one" winning team. Granted the Bengals are #1 in total offense...29.6 ppg. Recall, since 2013 the Bills defense leads the NFL in sacks and interceptions....and they improved their DVOA numbers ranked #10 this week with the Bengals #14...If the Buffalo defense disallows the big play, the Bills win this SU. The defensive deficiencies against the rush can be altered by TOP from the offense unit with RB McCoy and the more mobile E. J. Manuel at QB...No matter, even if Taylor runs the show the Bills will be highly jacked.

There a few old tech systems play into Buffalo. But, more important the Bengals who are 0-5 ATS as road chalk laying 3 or more, should fall to the emotional Bills and a celebratory crowd. Good Luck.

(103) 4* Atlanta -3-1/2…buy ½ point, if possible… over New Orleans @ 8:25 Eastern

If it wasn’t for the Julio Jones hamstring this would be a 5* GAME OF THE WEEK type angle, but considering the overall picture the Falcons are the play.  Atlanta is one of the 6 NFL teams that is undefeated (5-0), but we note the wins have come against the “legion” of the NFL East.  In addition, they show 4-1 ATS.  Home standing New Orleans is 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS after being waxed by the upstart Eagles in Philadelphia last weekend.  Some critical fundamental stats to remember, Atlanta is ranked #3 in total offense with a 32.4 point average.  Defensively, the Saints are rated #30 vs. the rush allowing on average 136 yards per.  Interesting RB Freeman is back in the lineup for the Falcons.  Atlanta is 2-0 SU on the road this year, 5-0 ATS L5 Thursday games.  Although the home team is 6-1 ATS in the series, the Falcons have dominated lately going 4-1 ATS.

5* Cleveland +7-1/2 over San Diego

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow!

4* Washington+ over Philadelphia

NFL UPSET ALERT

BDS

Note...We may have another game later on this morning, right now this is our third selection with the 10* GOY and 5* GOW...Good Luck, and thank you all.

10* NYG+ 5-1/2 or +6 vs. Buffalo @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

This is critical and please note, if you can buy 1/2 point, please do so as soon as possible. No matter this play stands at +5-1/2 as a TOP PLAY. In this situation we have the developing Giants who are just 1-2 SU on the season vs. the 2-1 Bills. In our updated power ratings the Bills do have an edge over the Giants currently because of their #1 rushing offense.  But, I believe in SU talent the Giants are dead even with QB Eli Manning giving NY a clear differential.  Buffalo is technically void at 7-19-1 ATS off a SU win, while the Giants are 29-13-2 ATS in October. With the overlay feel we have a HUGE EDGE with NYG and to me it is quite obvious...NYG!