3* (905/906) Pittsburgh/Milwaukee OVER the total

These units have split out the series this weekend, and now face each other with two questionable hurlers.   Both have exhibited inconsistencies with control being the chief culprit.  Despite currently hitting .214 as a team Milwaukee does have some solid bats in the lineup, helping support their 4-0 OVER record against RHP.   The Brewers are 20-9-3 OVER on the road.  The umpire calling balls and strikes is 8-2 OVER with Milwaukee, while the series has shot OVER 8-of-10...GO OVER.

4* (919/920) Bosotn/Toronto UNDER 9 @ 1:35

With Sanchez and Wright going to the hill, there are some questions that must be answered before going low on the day.   We know both units have recent history of playing UNDER.   Behind the plate today, umpire Barksdale takes in balls and strikes.  He is 5-0-1 UNDER on Sunday with Boston, while 20-7-4 UNDER on Sunday overall.  The Red Sox come in 6-0 UNDER vs. losing units, 9-2 UNDER at home.  Toronto in road tests are 4-0 with Sanchez and 5-0 UNDER vs. a hurler with a +1.30 WHIP.  And, 5-1 UNDER against the American League East…UNDER.

4* (979/980) METS/Cleveland UNDER the total @ 4:10 Eastern

Cleveland (4-4) and the Mets (4-5) go at it again Saturday afternoon in Cleveland after the Mets broke through last night with a solid road win.  New York starts RHP Harvey who has thrown OUTSTANDING career interleague starts with an effective 1.27 ERA.   In three career road IL battles vs. Cleveland the hurler has a solid 2.42 ERA in 22-1/3 innings of work.  The Indians bring veteran Tomlin to the mound after his initial start was postponed.  He finished 2015 with a 3.02 ERA, 7-2 mark and encountered right shoulder surgery fairly early on.  In fact, after he led the AL in OBP .227, K-to-BB ratio 7.13 and a super 0.84 WHIP.  Our umpire today behind the plate is Dan Iassogna.  The ump has called the UNDER at a 40-19 clip in Interleague games.   And, 4-0 UNDER with Tomlin on the hill.  With New York 4-1 UNDER game #2 and 11-4-1 UNDER vs. starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, the call is UNDER!

5* DETROIT/Houston OVER 9

Detroit (6-3) visits Houston off a two game sweep of Pittsburgh winning yesterday.  The Astros have now lost three straight and look to rebound off the KC series.  The Tigers use veteran RHP Pelfrey (0-1, 14.73) who was tagged by the Yankees back on the 9th of month for 6 earned runs in just 3-2/3 innings of work.  He has been less than stellar on the road in his career goin 26-43 with a hefty 5.29 ERA.  He is 3-4 life time vs. Houston carrying a 4.96 ERA.  Houston checks in with lefty ace Keuchel (1-1, 3.55) who during his brief career is 1-0 with 1.29 ERA vs Detroit.  This is his first start at home where he went 15-0 in 2015 matched with a 1.46 ERA.  Despite that intrigue fully expect the Tigers to keep hitting the baseball as they have scored at least 4 runs in all of their games this season.  Technically, they have gone OVER in 5 straight and bring a 5-0 OVER record vs. a hurler with a 1.30+ WHIP.  Detroit is 8-of-10 OVER.  Houston is 5-1 OVER game #1 of a series and 4-1 OVER w/lefty Keuchel off a loss in their last game.  

041416

4* (965/966) Cleveland/Tampa Bay UNDER the total @ 1:10

Staying in the ‘Injuns house with Salazar matching Archer in mound duties.  This series has always been highly competitive, as last night the Cleveland pitching staff shutdown the Rays in a real nice road win.  RHP Salazar (1-0, 1.69) of Cleveland comes off 5-1/3 inning of work vs. the White Sox with a victory.  Last year against the Rays, he threw a 1.97 ERA.  Next, we have RHP Archer of TB trying again to break his losing streak dating back to last year.  Currently, Archer is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA, 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA…2015.  Against Cleveland he is 0-3 (5.40) in three starts.  I can tell you from seeing Archer pitch twice this season, he becomes frustrated when not accruing low strikes from the plate umpire.  However, in this spot I expect a solid showing by the youngster who has unlimited potential.  The Rays are on a 7-1-1 UNDER run, 4-0-2 UNDER vs. RHP and 5-0-2 UNDER L7.  Cleveland comes in with a meager .208 BA and 5-0 UNDER with RHP Salazar off 5 days of rest.  The Indians are 6-1 UNDER vs.

5* YANKS/JAYS UNDER 8-1/2...Usually don't get involved with Lefty Happ in a total scenario, but his 21-5 UNDER mark w/Toronto at home is more than respectable.  Plus the Blue Jays are hitting just .210 which will Pineda, and the Yankees are 11-2 UNDER on turf.  When you consider these factors and the 5-0 UNDER angle for Toronto/Happ off a quality start, we have an UNDER despite playing into a strong hitting talent construct...Good Luck!

041216

4* (973/974) Pittsburgh/Detroit OVER the total @ 1:10 Eastern

In the opening game of the series yesterday afternoon the Pirates bounced the Tigers and Verlander 7-4.  Pittsburgh is now 13-3 in interleague, while hitting .316 supporting.  Today Detroit (3-2) looks to avenge that loss behind RHP Sanchez who defeated Miami last time 7-3, working 5 innings allowing 2 earned 3 walks and 3 strikeouts.  The hurler is coming off a 2015 season of inconsistency, but at home he is 22-14 with a 3.69 ERA.  Still, Sanchez is nothing like his 2013 self that was a true ace for the Tigers. Sanchez does have a 2-5 record (3.67) versus the Pirates, in his only series meeting (2015) he was hit around pretty good, coughing up 5 earned runs in 6 IP. Pittsburgh (5-2) comes in with a positive mindset after winning Monday, here using RHP Nicasio (1-0, 1.5) who looked good in a win over the Cardinals this week.  Nicasio was 1-3 with 3.86 ERA in 2015, going 3-4 against interleague units carrying a 5.98 ERA(?). Both units have started well hitting the baseball, Pittsburgh .312 and Detroit .280 batting averages.  The weather is sunny with the temperature around 50.  Behind Sanchez the Tigers are 5-0 OVER at home, 9-1-1 OVER on grass.  On the road, Pittsburgh fields 7-2 OVER in IL play and 5-0 OVER vs. RHP. Today the scheduled balls and strikes umpire is Gabe Morales who is 5-0 OVER in Tuesday IL games.  With Detroit looking to rebound carrying a PERFECT 7-0 OVER legend vs. winning units and 6-0 OVER versus RHP in interleague play…HIGH!

10* TEXAS/LAA OVER the total

Have great respect for the hurlers here, but both units have been frustrated at the plate this season to some respect.  To be exact, the Rangers are hitting .201 the Angels .189 this season and the powerful units combined for just five runs last night.  I remind you, LAA loves the Sunday sets going 9-3-1 OVER.  And, 5-1 OVER in game #4 of a series and 4-0 OVER after scoring less than two runs in their last game.  Texas has been a monster OVER play vs. RHP 12-4. From the umpire standpoint, balls and strike operative Mike DeMuro is 20-9-3 OVER vs. Texas and 3-0-1 OVER vs. LAA...HIGH!

(961/962) 4* San Francisco/Los Angeles OVER the total @ 10:15 Eastern

Our massive Rivalry Game of the Month winner last night was San Francisco as they defeated Los Angeles 12-6 in a game that brought a combined 30 hits to the playing field.  This is interesting because the Dodgers really had problems last year with their bats at AT&T Park. Tonight we believe you will see a sampling of yesterday with the Dodgers bringing in RHP Stripling, a Double “A” hurler, to face San Francisco. Last year, he had a 3-6 record and a 3.66 ERA, while skipping Triple “A” baseball and making the jump to the majors.  In addition, the hurler is off Tommy John surgery.  The Giants counter with veteran RHP Matt Cain who was horrible during the spring with a 7.71 ERA in three starts.  Against Los Angeles, his luck has been bad, 0-3 with a bulging 5.27 ERA.  He has not faced this restructured lineup since 2014.

Finally, from the technical standpoint, we have balls and strikes umpire Kellogg 5-2 OVER when San Francisco shares the box.  In addition, the Giants have shot OVER at an amazing 8-1-3 mark with Cain on the hill after scoring five plus in their last game.  Los Angeles comes 3-1-1 OVER vs. RHP and 8-3-1 OVER in game #2 of a series.  And, finally the Giants are a majestic 15-5-1 OVER in Friday editions.  Good Luck tonight.

(967(968) 5* Baltimore/Tampa Bay OVER the total @ 7:05 Eastern

Not only do the Orioles have numerous players with solid averages versus Archer, but the Rays have augmented their lineup this season with a little better array of hitters.   Technically speaking Baltimore and TB have shot OVER in 4 straight meetings, while 5-2-1 sets in Baltimore have been HIGH.  Tampa Bay has been HIGH 4 straight in game #1 of a series, and when Archer is in the ‘till the OVER has cashed 4 in a row on the road.  Plus, the Rays have been a SUPER 8-1    OVER with RHP Archer on grass surfaces, look for Camden Yards to see the scoreboard lite tonight…Good Luck!

Play on:  4* (963/964) New York/Detroit OVER 7-1/2/8 the total @ 1:10 Eastern

Today the Yankees travel to Detroit face the Tigers in the home opener for Detroit.  New York finished the 2015 season with a solid three game win streak and 87-75 record.  They have begun the early campaign with a 2-1 record defeating Houston in the recent home series.  The Tigers completed 2015 with a 74-87 record and a losing 38-43 mark at home.  However, they have started nicely with a 2-0 sweep (5 Home Runs) of the Marlins down in Miami.  But, they four relievers on the DL to start the season.

The Yankees start stellar young Dominican RHP Luis Severino who finished last season in New York with a 5-3 mark in 11 starts, 62-1/3 innings of work with a 2.89 ERA.  A flashy start for the young star.  Where the hurler can have problems is with his break pitches, and cold weather would normally be the culprit.  Temperature high today is projected to be around 40.  So, elements may be beneficial for the Tigers.  New York has won back-to-back games with an average positive run differential of 3.7 in the three game series versus Houston.

In their home opener manager Brad Ausmus has chosen former Washington hurler RHP Jordan Zimmerman (13-10) who threw a 70-50 record with the Nationals in seven years of work in the nation’s capital.  Zimmerman projected an overall 3.32 era there, but it ballooned higher last season to 3.66 and the veteran did “not” notch a complete game which saved his ERA!  The Tigers appear to have the “stroke” and energy to replicate their league leading .270 BA from last season. When you add the Yankees hot bats of Castro and Teixeira, the 46-26 run splurge last year versus Detroit, you can fully estimate a high scoring game for these two old combatants.  Remember, the Tigers are an insane 9-1 OVER off a win and 4-0 OVER last four times out against .600 plus units.  The series has shot OVER 4-OF-5...HIGH Today Please!

919/920...5* CUBS/ANGLES...OVER the total.
Love this situation after the Angels were shutout last night 9-0.  Overall, the scenario comes with corresponding left handers and both unit successful OVER in IL play against LHP. Head to head the series is 3-0-1 OVER L4 and 4-0-1 OVER in Los Angels.  LAA is 12-4-1 OVER in LA vs. a hurler with a WHP of less than 1.15 and 4-1 OVER in IL play.  Chicago comes 7-1-1 OVER vs. LHP and 4-0 OVER recently. Good Luck!

5* NY/Kansas City Under the total of 7

World Series Game #3 Total...BDS

New York is 5-1-1 UNDER at home recently, 6-1 UNDER in Syndergaards starts in game #1 of a home series and 6-2 UNDER in New York vs. RHP.  Further, visiting Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER after giving up 2 or less run in their most recent game. In closing, the Royals are 7/10 UNDER vs. a >.500 home unit. Good Luck!

5* Mets/Kansas City UNDER 7 (901) @ 8:00 Eastern

First off, RHP Harvey of NY has under a two ERA L3 times out, that should tell the story of the whole game.  From the total standpoint the series has shot UNDER 4/5.  Further, NY has gone UNDER 6/7 in game #1 of a series and 4-1-1 UNDER in their most recent WS affairs.  On the Kansas City side we find the Royals 5/5 UNDER in game #1 of a series and 6/6 UNDER w/Volquez vs. a winning team…UNDER!

940) 5* METS/LA UNDER the total @ 8:05 Eastern

In this critical encounter look for each club to play it safe not trying to make mistakes, while looking to extend each starter.  The winner will be who comes up with the more effective relief out of the pen. No matter, this will be a low scoring game and one heated test for each unit. Remember, we have an 0.86 vs. an 0.71 WHIP challenging again, and oh by the way the 19-16 runs edge for the Mets will be soft checked here with such tension inside the game…LOW!

SWEPT 3-0 LAST NIGHT IN THE NFL AND BASEBALL

903/904...4* PHL/WASHINGTON UNDER the total
It's Zimmerman vs. Eickhoff of Philadelphia in a night game down in Washington.   Philadelphia has gone UNDER 4/5, the Nats 2-1-1 UNDER L4.   Philadelphia is looking even more inept as the season comes to end...NEW MANAGER! BIG DEAL...They have scored 14 runs in the last 7 games, 6 came against Miami on 9/22...averaging just 2 runs a game!  Washington has had a higher graph scoring 31 runs in the last 6 games 5+ runs a game.  In  Philadelphia back on the 14th Zimmerman was hit, but the Nats won 8-7 over the Phillies and RHP Nola who was high in the strike zone.  So, I am featuring the UNDER here knowing Zim will come up with a huge outing at home with the Phillies just going through the motions.  RHP Eickhoff has a decent 3.16 ERA (1.14 WHIP), his last 2 starts the hurler has allowed 1 earned run in 14 innings of work vs. the Cubs and Braves.

5* COLORADO/Pittsburgh UNDER the total

MLB BEST TOTAL

BDS

Both Locke and Bettis' ERAs have ballooned over the season, but we note a differential inside the overall matchup. Plus for the lineups they are going from a night encounter to a day timer. Pittsburgh' Locke is showing for his last three starts a solid 3.06 ERA...vs. Colorado 4.91 ERA.  Bettis of Colorado has a 2.76 ERA L3, and a 3.00 ERA vs. Pittsburgh...Like this situaiton to stay UNDER the total...GOOD LUCK!

4* Texas/Seattle OVER 9

Would love this to be 8-1/2, so check your personal numbers later today for an edge. We note Texas is RED HOT gaining command in the division after KOing the Astros last night 8-2.  As you will see the Rangers, despite a lead, kept pouring it on in the late innings to go HIGH! They have won 5 straight.  Seattle shows successful in this building winning 7-of-10 overall. However, Paxton who has pitched well vs. TX is on a pitch count...Rangers are 12-5 vs. LHP, and Seattle is 1-6 in Paxton's road tests of late. I'm illustrating the SU numbers, so you can visualize my TOTAL prediction. You see, Gallardo of Texas is carrying a 5.52 ERA L3 out (1.57 WHIP), Paxton on a pitch count shows a 4.61 ERA L3 out (1.54 WHIP).  Texas has gone OVER in 4 straight w/Gallardo off 4 days of rest. Finally, try not to focus on the recent history of 'under' in the series as both units and hurlers have changing form....OVER!

5* Phillies/Atlanta OVER 8-1/2

Both units floundering this season, and coming off shaky runs.  RHP Perez has a 1.59 WHIP and a 5.36 ERA L3, LHP Morgan (Philadelphia) shows with 1.26 WHIP and a 4.60 ERA. The series is OVER at a 11-5-1 clip.  With Perez the Braves have garnered 6 straight OVER, while Philadelphia is 5-1 OVER in LHP Morgan's road charts...Finally, the struggling Phillies have played OVER 7/8 vs. a hurler with a 1.30 WHIP or higher...Good Luck!

4* WASHINGTON/MIAMI OVER 8

It's clearly documented the propensity of Washington to go OVER late, 19-4-3 to be exact. Granted Roark is looking better, but can't the hurler in a situation where he is "expected" to win via the money line...Therefore, prefer the more dominating trend.

4* San Diego/Colorado OVER 7-2/3

Both clubs have been playing OVER recently, and RHP Shields has been an OVER hurler at home the last two-plus months...Shields is a PERFECT 7-0 OVER with 4 days of rest.  Finally, SD is OVER 27-10-2 in their last 29 games. Rocks are 10-4 OVER when their opponent scored 2 or less runs in their last game.

Play on:  4* STL (Wacha)/SF (Leake) UNDER the total

Using the UNDER in this Pennant or World Series type showdown in San Francisco.  RHP Wacha has been on fire of late 1.09 ERA carrying a 4-0 record.  He pitched well in St. Louis vs. SF two weeks ago giving up only one run in seven innings.  The other part of the equation is RHP Leake of SF who has outstanding reps in this park when throwing for Cincinnati…4-0, 2.87 ERA.  Also, the Cardinals are 10-2 UNDER with Wacha and 5-1 UNDER on Friday…SF 10-3-2 UNDER vs. a >.600 unit and 4-0 UNDER after scoring 5+ runs in their last game…LOW!  

08/22/15

Play on: 5* Tampa Bay/Oakland UNDER 7

Tonight I am going UNDER the total with Oakland and the Rays.  Friday, in the series opener Tampa Bay won out 2-1 over the A’s.  The series has now gone UNDER the total L13 at a 9-2-2 clip.   In Oakland the results have been very inconsistent low scoring games indicated by the 5-1 UNDER record L6 times on the playing field.  The A’s use RHP Gray (12-5, 2.04) who has a 2-1 record in August with a mini 1.25 ERA…allowing only 3 earned runs in 21-2/3 innings of work.  Tampa Bay has RHP Ramirez 10-4 with a 3.57 ERA a solid 1.09 WHIP…The key for the RHP is staying away from walking the opposition.  His Achilles heel this season has been the aforementioned issue.  Still the hurler is coming off 12-2/3 innings of work allowing just 2 earned runs vs. Atlanta and Houston.  Further, this is a revenge battle for Ramirez as he was hit around by Oakland earlier this season when he was high in the strike zone allowing key walks to help the A’s pressurize their offense.  Oakland is #20 in hitting this season with a .250 BA. Tampa Bay is UNDER in 4 straight games.

08/22/15

Play on:  4* Phillies/Miami (910) OVER the total of 8-1/2

Despite the ½ run line movement this morning on the Strip, I still very much favor the OVER.  The Phillies won a rare road game (20) last night down in Florida as they look more positive with the young kids taking over the team, but veteran Ryan Howard was sure a key element in that battle.  Here Miami shows trying to rebound, and they are 7-0 OVER as a favorite and 10-1-1 OVER in this total price range.  Philadelphia has gone OVER in 4 straight, with Harang 4-1-1 OVER vs. >.500 units. We note, Harang has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 16-2/3 innings of work.  The series has been OVER 5-1-1 L7 times out.  GO HIGH!

5* OAKLAND/Toronto UNDER 7-1/2

This is the right number nothing less for the overall handicap Thursday afternoon.  We note, RHP Gray has been very strong of late reducing his ERA with style of late, while "B" catches an extra day of rest off a major downer.  The world is aware the Blue Jays have won 10 straight, and the A's show 0-5 in Toronto. So, we are creating a BEST BET move on the UNDER with the pitching capsule and the very "early" day start to support the 10-2 UNDER construct inside the series.

4* Milwaukee (Jungmann)/San Diego (Kennedy) UNDER 7-1/2

The series has been a classic UNDER staple of late...at 10-3 overall, 4-1 UNDER in Milwaukee. No doubt that led to researching the numbers a little more closely and we find RHP Jungmann of the Brewers sizzzling hot despte just a 3-2 record in July, while carrying a super 1.77 ERA as the balancer, that's off 35-2/3 innings of work allowing just 7 earned runs. With Jungmann the Brewers are 7-1-1 UNDER in this price range, and 4-0 UNDER L4 starts. Competing hurler Kennedy of the Padres has pitched well L3 with 19 innings in the books, giving up 17 hits and just 5 earned runs. With Kennedy the Padres are 8-1 UNDER on grass 11-4-1 UNDER as an underdog...UNDER!

4* LA/Washington...UNDER the total of 6-1/2

Not afraid the LOW here, despite the Dodgers bats being inside the equation.  Still RHP Greinke going for more records today as he looks to go 6 scoreless games...Currently 35-2/3 innings of no runs scored against the veteran. He is on an 8-2 run with a 1.39 ERA and a WHIP there still trying to locate on the stat sheet.  LA is 5-1 UNDER in game #3 of a series, w/Greinke 11-2 UNDER game #3.  Washington with Scherzer is 4-0 UNDER...7-0-1 UNDER vs. >.500 units, and 8-1-1 UNDER home vs. losing road unit. RHP Scherzer is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA L2 outings vs. the Dodgers. Umpire numbers have balls and strikes guru Miller being 23-5-1 UNDER with LA between the lines.

5* Phillies/Marlins UNDER 7

Both clubs hurting Phillies 18-25 at home, Marlines 14-28 on the road.  Miami injury plagued of late, now face the second-half without Stanton down 4-6 weeks.  Miami (TBA .255 #14) has won BB games, the Phillies (TBA .246 #23) have lost 5 straight in their recent west coast road swing.  Further, Philadelphia has scored 2, 5, 2, 0 and 0 in those 5 games.  Granted the opposition arms were Heston, Vogelsong, Bumgarner, Greinke and Kershaw (looked soft in the all-star game).  The Marlins from July 3rd through the 10th scored a combined 12 runs 7 games, you do the math!  However, they CRUSHED Cueto and Iglesias of Cincinnati scoring 22 runs in total, winning 8-1 and 14-3 in BB home outings...By the way, both Cueto and Iglesias looked as though they were crafting soft servers...Not this time around as LHP Morgan of the Phillies, if down, will drive this unit nuts!  The Marlines have yet to face the young hurler, and their 0-5 on the road vs. lefty's which supports the angle here. Granted the total in the series has been high recently in Philly, but we're coming out of the break, and Morgan should keep the Marlins soft, especially with Stanton on the shelf.

5* CLEVELAND UNDER the total
MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY
BDS
Not afraid to go low with two aggressive units, especially considering the Astros are in the mix, however, they have scored just 5 runs combined last two up in the "box" after driving 12 on Friday. Cleveland has the psychological bounce back edge after 5-3 come from behind loss to Pittsburgh Sunday. By the way, if you're following RHP Salazar, gave up 7 hits in 4-2/3's up in the strike zone, no less. Press blamed fielding issue for after breakdown on the hill. ERAs 2.37 vs. 2.45 Houston vs. Cleveland..very respectful. HISTORY: 22-5-2 UNDER from the series standpoint...LOW!