4* Florida State over Fordham 

Jamaican Classic First Round

After facing the Rams (A-10) the Sems follow this up with a game against Colorado State, I believe they can win each encounter.  First off, Florida State has a major edge already playing in Jamaica this summer in exhibition hoops which allows them to feel comfortable on this floor.  They show off a blowout win 87-67 over GW who simply couldn't handle 7-4 Koumadjie (14-7-5) and the double-digit scorers possessed by the ACC unit.  GW made a run to get back in the game but, the Sems quickness out stated the effort.  Here they face a gutty coach in Jeff Neubauer of the Rams who played at LaSalle under firebrand HC Speedy Morris.  The Rams have some talent and will challenge in the A-10 as the season progresses but, the numbers and talent seem to be too difficult to circumvent this early in the season.  Remember the Rams are 0-6 ATS in non-conference and 0-4 ATS on neutral floors.  Good Luck.

4* Temple +2-1/2 over Auburn

The Owls (1-0) will have to slow the pace against quicksilver Auburn to pull out a victory.  They have the discipline to do just that in this early start.   Tigers come 9-19-2 ATS on neutral boards and 2-5 ATS off a SU win.  The Owls come a PERFECT 5-0 ATS in Friday calls and 5-1 ATS on neutral boards, and 10-3 ATS in non-conference games. Good Luck.

4* Drexel over Cleveland State

First off the Dragons have the edge in returning starters, play at a quicker pace and possess three balling issues that BG cant offset.  Also, Drexel plays in a stroger conference and comes with a solid coach.  Good luck.

3* Orlando (702) over Nets

This is our opener for this season in the NBA, and we'll make an appreciation move with the Magic who just crushed the Cavs shooting 17-35 from three. The Nets maybe 2-1 this season ranked #1 in scoring offense (124.3) but, they show almost at the bottom of the charts in defense with a 121.7 average.  Right now, the avenging Magic are hitting 14.3's per game (#2) and will look to outrun and shoot this inconsistent opponent.  The home team is 5-0 SU in the series and 4-0-1 ATS.  The Nets come in 5-16-1 ATS off a SU win of more than ten points.  Remember too, the Magic have played a tougher schedule this season than the Nets.  Good Luck.

10* (710) Golden State over Cleveland @ 9:00 Eastern

NBA Grand Slam Playoff Selection…BDS

Simply, right off game #5 last year saw Cleveland rebound to support their now mentioned miracle run and an NBA Championship.   However, in that 112-97 win by the Cavs neither Durant or Green were part of the equation.  Briefly, factor in two trends of minor interest, Cleveland plays Monday with a 17-35-2 ATS mark, while the Warriors show 5-1 ATS L6 Monday editions.  More important, the Cavs come in off a stunning game #4 beating of Golden State in Cleveland.   They out-shot the Warriors 72-33 from three range, and of course broke playoff records.  The Cavs scored 49 first quarter points and never looked back with the stellar play of guard Irving and Lord James.  Now Cleveland travels to the coast where they are 2-5 ATS.  Golden State performs back home with their egos smashed.  Considering Curry shot 4-of-13 from the field, the Warriors were in for a bad set. Kevin Durrant played a super game off a slow start.  Granted the mental edge, despite the site, is carried by Cleveland.  Still, must support Golden State with Durrant (who has never won a championship) and Green playing with their crowd support.  This should be a close war but, feel the Warriors bench will help solidify this important battle.  Covering the number might be doubtful until the 4th quarter when “Uncle Mo” shows up with the home crowd.  Golden State has covered 5 straight with two day’s rest, while bringing a 6-1 ATS off mark off an ATS loss.  Cleveland comes in 2-6 ATS after two days off.  

5* Portland+ over Golden State

Critical must win situation for the Blazers who accrued strong performances out of Dilliard and McCollumn in game #1 but, the combo faltered in game #2 and the Blazers were routed.  Golden State has the edge ATS in the series but, the Warriors are 5-12-2 ATS with 2 days of rest.  Portland comes 4-0 ATS on Saturday, 5-0 ATS at home against a road unit with a >.600 or more road winning mark.  With the Blazers 8-1 ATS at home, we look for a closer game and at least a cover for the frustrated Blazers.  Good Luck.

4* Houston (719) over OKC

Granted there are conflicting items of interest inside the numbers program.  However, must respect gutty Rockets who have simply more scoring answers on their side of the ledger in comparison to Westbrook and company.  Yes, the Rockets have played so-so on the road going 0-5 ATS.  Still, when matchup the Houston 5-0 ATS at OKC and 10-2 ATS series there is more to find positive with the visitor.  Remember, OKC maybe 28-13 SU at home but, they show 1-4 ATS L5 vs.

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CBB EASTERN EDGE TOURNEY GAME OF THE WEEK

5* FURMAN (525) over St. Peter’s @ 9:00 Eastern

Furman (23-11) travels to Jersey City, N.J., to take on the Saint Peter's Peacocks of the MAAC in the semifinal round of the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament on Wednesday night.
First off, we must respect the Paladins after beating Campbell fairly easily while tying a school record hitting the 23-game win mark. SPC game from an incredible deficit to defeat Texas State.  So, catching a home game for this critical battle is a major plus.  Overall, this seems a bigger game for the Peacocks who get a chance to show some MAAC prowess (under rated conference) against a unit who lost last year in this same tourney in their second game.  Each school finished 2nd in their conference, both obviously are on the mid-major scale. The major keys are the site, the offensive edges for the visitor who simply has more options than the pesky Peacocks.  So, when we starred down the Vegas early entry of -4 (bet down to -3) for SPC, we projected an overlay. But, make no mistake Jersey City is a looney place for a school that’s never been in that gym (3,200). SOS and RPI numbers favor Furman. From the technical standpoint, can’t help but note the Peacocks are 4-11 ATS vs. >.500 road club, 1-4 ATS if they have a winning percentage >.600.  Project this as a buzzer beater…TAKE THE POINTS.

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4* Coastal Carolina (744) over Wyoming 7:30 Eastern

Monday CBB Tourney Best Bet…BDS

Would normally ignore a unit like Wyoming (21-14) traveling to play a lesser known entity in Coastal Carolina (19-17) but, this has been a wacky post season in all tournaments so, the Pokes are in a dubious position considering this is a home game for the surprising CBI unit.   Coastal has put together solid wins in the tourney over Loyola, MD, Hampton and UIC.  On the other hand, Wyoming defeated E. Washington, UMKC and Utah Valley to garner a spot in the Championship series (best of three).  All those games were at home and now they must travel a distance to South Carolina.   This could be quite difficult as they have not been far from campus since February 28th.  Remember, the Pokes did not win back-to-back games in the MWC this season and now must go up against a home unit running a four-guard offense who can run.  Note, CC guard Jaylen Shaw has scored 22 points in each of the last four games if, he has a big night Coastal wins.  Also, I like the fact coach Ellis of Coastal Carolina is a former SEC mentor and is familiar with bigger and sometimes more athletic foes on a consistent basis, his preparation is key.  The Chanticleers come with some technical goodies going 10-1-2 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS at home versus a poor traveling units booking under a .400 win/loss record.  TAKE COASTAL CAROLINA!

10* Texas State+ over St. Peter's

CBI TOURNEY GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Under valued State shows defensive edge (62.1) since they are at home.  Granted SPC has some structural edges and trending numbers but, love this Sun Belt unit that will play their hearts out on defense throughout.  TS is 7-1 ATS L8 times out.  Good Luck.

18-6 in College Hoops March Madness Tourney Action

65-41 run and 49-31 in Basketball overall  

....more notes later

4* Wisconsin over Florida

NCAA Reverse Angle...BDS 75% Run in March Madness

5* KANSAS over Purdue 

NCAA TOURNEY GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Jayhawks defeated the Boilers 63-60 back in Lawrence in 2012.  Different set of circumstances now and a more complex floor relationship with Kansas the perimeter edge, the boarding unit.  KU has been on fire shooting 52.2% the last five games, along with a 40.9% arc edge.   In addition, the Jayhawks 20-1 SU in night action to support their 4-0 ATS record vs. .600+ units and a 6-1 ATS streak as an NCAA chalk.  Good Luck.

4* OKC over Philadelphia 

The Sixers still being aggressive despite current status, and have been covering of late on the road.  But can't recommend knowing OKC is just 2-1/2 games behind Utah for 4th place in the Western Conference.  The Thunder shows 6-0-1 ATS vs. the Atlantic &11-3 ATS vs. road.Unit with .400 or under losing record.  With OKC 5-2 ATS vs. Philly at home and the home team 5-1 ATS in the series, go with the Thunder.

5* Weber State over A&M C. C. @ 8:00 Eastern

We used A&M last week in a perfect now they show at home in the American Bank Center facing Weber State.  Conference differentials allow us about a 2-point advantage built in for traveling Weber State who lost a heart-breaker in their conference title game.  WS is the more effective three ballers and is ranked #29 in FG% this season.  A key here in probably a foul-ridden game is foul shooting, and WS is hitting 77.6% the last five games.   With A&M 1-6 ATS off a SU win and Weber 4-1 ATS L5 games, we're on the visitor, Weber State.

3* Southern California+ (725) over Baylor @ 7:45 Eastern

Xavier along with the Trojans are my surprise teams in the NCAA tourney.  Xavier crushed unexpecting Florida State (Fat City) last night and now we have Baylor ready to go down here.  The only reason for this inflated number is the SOS differential between these two entities.  Again, the PAC-12 is getting no respect.  Baylor is coming off of New Mexico State and that's no way to prepare for the Trojans who will challenge you physically, and especially on the boards.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Oakland (733) over Richmond @ 7:30 Eastern

We understand Hayes will play today despite the mouth injury, the small forward is a gamer no surprise.  No the kids from Oakland (25-8) travel to Virginia in the NIT to play the Spiders.  Richmond shows 21-12 on the season after upsetting lazy 'Bama in the first round. That win earned this home date but, Oakland has talent and plays after Clemson as an underdog out of the ACC.  Remember, the Spider are coming off three brutal games vs. GW, VCU and Alabama. Although the visitor is garnering travel miles, they appear to be the more physical unit.  Oakland over the last five games have been highly effective on the boards, while the Spiders have allowed 48% field goal numbers.  So, if Oakland gets hot and the Spiders show flat shooting spots, I love our chances for a SU win.  Technically, Oakland is 5-0 road dog in this price range and 20-5-1 ATS overall as an underdog.  Seemingly their higher level identity, if you will.   Richmond strangely is 1-4 ATS L5 on the floor and come 17-36-4 ATS long-term consistently vs. non-conference units with over a >.600 mark on the road. Good Luck.

4* OREGON over Rhode Island

No doubt RIU has come on strong this season finishing third in the A-10, and current winners of 9 straight games.  Oregon shows finished an incredible 30-5, winners of 9-of-10.  The Ducks have the defensive POY in the PAC-12 in Jordan Bell who could be the difference in this basketball game.  Over the last five games each is similar statistically, but SOS goes clearly to Oregon who plays in the under valued Pac-12.  Technically, Rhode Island has looked good vs. .>600 units going 4-0 ATS but, on a neutral they show 4-17-2 ATS as an underdog and 3-14-2 ATS in this price range.  Finally, with RIU just 6-18 ATS in Sunday editions it's OREGON!

4* Iowa (H) -2 over TCU @ 5:00 Eastern

NIT BEST BET....

Difficult for TCU to beat a #1 seed, especially on their home floor.  They have made a nice run but, not in this spot.  They have bad history vs. the Big-10 with a 0-4 ATS mark and producing a 1-5 ATS record in their last six road games.   And, 3-8 ATS when booked as an underdog L11. Iowa is a super 5-0 ATS non-conference and 10-4-1 ATS in Ames.  Good Luck.

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5* (H) Georgia Tech (742) over Belmont @ 12:00

Site: Thriller Dome 8,600 capacity

NIT GAME OF THE WEEK

After SWEEPING yesterday we look to challenge the early start in the historic NIT.  An intense battle takes place when Belmont visits Tech on Sunday.  The Bruins are coming off an incredible showing against SEC Georgia dropping 14 three-point shots.  The outing gives proof Belmont is a legit offensive unit currently ranked 40th in FG%.  Over the last five games they have shot 46.8% which is why the line has moved down overnight in Vegas.  Overall, though Tech has been a more effective defensive unit (66.9) this season and the Engineers play a higher rated schedule within the more difficult ACC.  Tech shows off defeating Indiana, holding the Hoosiers to 38% shooting.  Overall they are catching the Bruins off a spectacular shooting performance so, we expect somewhat of a letdown.  Further Belmont for some odd reason does not play that well in Sunday editions going 0-6 ATS.  We close with GT a solid 8-1 ATS at home and 36-17-2 ATS against >.600 plus units.  Play it late as there will be Belmont money this morning.  Good Luck.

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4* Maryland Baltimore County (542) over St. Francis (PA) @ 2:00 Eastern

CIT TOURNEY BEST BET MOVE…BDS

Talent wise the UMBC has the edge on offense but, defensively SFPA garners the better numbers.  Still the game is being played on the home court of UMBC down in Catonsville where they show 11-4 SU this season.  We remind you SFPA is 9-10 SU on the road.   UMBC brings a run and shoot philosophy, the visitor more deliberate style.  As a matter of comparison this season the home unit has defeated Duquesne 81-72, SFPA lost to the Dukes 89-75.  Further, UMBC has defeated UMASS, James Madison, Hartford and Mount St. Mary’s.  They have lost to Towson at home (District foe) and Richmond on the road in very close games.  So, as the theory goes the SOS goes to UMBC who plays with roughly +2-point advantage in scheduling and at least +2 on their home floor.   The “Rack” is a difficult place to play for units who have never visited.  UMBC is 5-1 ATS non-conference and 6-1 ATS L7 (5-0 ATS).  If the Rack kids have a decent shooting performance they should win by 10.  Good Luck.  

3* West Va. (518) over Notre Dame

Not afraid to lay the short price with the Mounties considering ND came up short in their last three losses against big time foes in UNC, Duke and Louisville.  West Va. is not in that class although they bring enough depth to outlast the Irish.  The Mounties are 14-4 SU in day action a solid indicator in their scheduling.  In addition, they show 6-2 ATS as a NCAA chalk, while ND is 4-11 ATS in the NCAA.  Also, WVU is shooting almost 40% from three the last five games which is critical against plotting ND.  Although, the Mounties have had problems covering of late, favor their depth here, since the Irish show 2-5 ATS L7 as an underdog.  Good Luck.

031817

4* Ole Miss+ (533) over Syracuse @ 11:00 AM Eastern

Always difficult going against the Orange up in the Carrier Dome, however, gutty Rebels just might pull the upset in this dangerous spot.   Over the last five games Syracuse has been shooting lights out 48.2% from field, 42.5% from three and 85.5% from the foul line.  Where they have fallen short has been in rebounding the basketball so, if they lose their shooting edge Ole Miss can take control of the boards on both ends of the floor.  Mississippi comes into action off a SU & ATS win as an underdog(?) against Monmouth who played without Seaborn.  The Rebels do show 8-3 SU in day action, while home standing Syracuse plays 7-7 SU in that venue.  Believe the tenacious abilities of the Rebels will disallow any blowout so, we’re backing their 5-1 ATS mark vs. the ACC with a corresponding 4-0 ATS in non-conference play.  Syracuse oddly is 15-36-2 ATS in Saturday editions, while the Rebels have experienced super results of late at 13-3-1 ATS…TAKE THE POINTS!

4* DAYTON+ (832) over Wichita State @ 7:10 Eastern

The Flyers are very capable of pulling the upset tonight.  However, we will need the points to produce a profit center here.   Remember, WSU has a big revenge game with Kentucky next on their agenda.  For Dayton this is a "get back" game as they were destroyed 70-51 by Kentucky last year as a #10 seed.   They have covered 19 of 29 games this season, although show off back-to-back losses to GW and Davidson. We know the Shockers are very talented but, will they be at the top of their game tonight with a 15 game win streak getting 'em a little overconfident?  I like our chances with Dayton who will need huge numbers from Cooke, Pollard and Smith the DD scorers.  Also, Williams and Davis must step up their game bringing more consistency to the floor.  The Flyers come in 5-1 ATS vs. .600 plus teams and 14-6 ATS L20 times out.  Also, WSU is a mid-major power but feel their 6-14 ATS mark on neutral floors will allow the Flyers to take cash.

3* Jacksonville+ over Louisville

CBB Appreciation Day Timer...BDS

We will return 5:45 Eastern with more.

031717

4* Oregon (842) over Iona @ 2:00 Eastern

Difficult going against helter-skelter Gaels have shown a tendency to give noted D1 programs a major go.  They did receive the automatic from the MAAC after beating Siena 87-86 in OT. On the other hand, Oregon lost the PAC-12 Title game to Arizona 83-80 showing as a #3 seed, Iona #14 in the brackets.  The Ducks are #48 in scoring offense effectiveness and improved defense the last five games allowing only 67.4 points per outing.   Iona (22-12) brings a solid mark to the floor and no letdown type mentality.  However, they do show 0-4 ATS in NCAA’s and 1-5 ATS after a SU win.   Further, Oregon comes in a beautiful 8-1 ATS L9 when booked as a double-digit chalk and 5-2 ATS in the NCAA’s.   When laying -13 or higher they have a legend of 5-1 ATS.  No doubt the Ducks will miss Boucher but, still must back this frustrated unit to win and cover.  Good Luck. 

4* Seton Hall (823) over Arkansas

Arkansas might have the better guard play but, the Pirates show off losing to quite possibly the best unit in the country (Villanova) 55-53.  Seton Hall improved their defense down the stretch holding the opposition to 70 points per game and that included Nova.  Prior to the Nova loss, the Pirates had a super 5 game winning streak.  The show here 40-19 ATS as an underdog in this price range.  Further, they are 4-0 ATS vs. .600+ units and 5-0 ATS off a SU loss.  Can't trust the Hogs, especially if their shots from deep fail, as they come into this afternoon 29.9% from the arc last 5 times out.   Remember the Hogs are 1-7 ATS in the NCAA round and 2-9 ATS in neutral buildings.  In closing, Arkansas has faltered vs. Big East clubs of late going 2-8 ATS.  Good Luck.

Note, we will return later this evening around 5:45 Eastern for our last updates

10* Nevada+ (729) over Iowa State @ 9:55 Eastern

Okay, let's talk about the amazing Cyclones first as they enter this encounter winners of three straight sweeping their conference tourney championship including, a same season double revenge win over West Virginia.  Their average winning margin was 12 points per game in their tourney.   What's amazing, they brought back only two starters from last year and have a 23-10 mark.  This is their sixth consecutive NCAA tourney.  However, with that said, we remind the Cyclone followers 5th seeds when facing the 12th seed show 10-10 SU.  Granted ISU is hot but, check the pedal because here comes the Wolfpack out of the competitive MWC and their solid 28-6 SU record after sweeping their tourney and possessing a 9 game win streak.  They are also 9-1 ATS.  In addition, NU has carved out a super 20-4-2 ATS versus unit with a  >.500 mark. Remember, they brought back 4 starters from the CBI championship team finishing with a 24-14 record.  At neutral sites Nevada shows 7-1 SU, and 16-3 SU in night games.  They can score!  Averaging 82.4 points a game L5, while holding the opposition to 70.2 points per outing.  So, they are quite capable of winning the whole game against Iowa State.  Finally, State is 1-4 ATS in non-conference games and 1-4 ATS vs. the MWC. Nevada comes in 5-1 ATS within this underdog price range.  If Iowa State has an off night from the arc the Wolfpack will win this game. TAKE THE POINTS!  

4* St. Peter's over Albany

Better conference for the Peacocks but, Albany is talented if their head is in the game.  They are at the SEFCU center but this is a unit that lost another heart stopper NCAA Vermont.  SPC comes in a PERFECT 6-0 ATS on the road vs. .600+ unit, while Albany shows 0-4 ATS against non-conference foes.  Good Luck.

6-0 ATS CBB March Madness Run Before Saturday

5* East Tennessee State+ over Florida

CBB Tourney Late Money Move...BDS

5* UNCW +7-1/2 (721) over Virginia

NCAA UPSET ALERT...BDS

Sorry, no analysis serious computer issues, will try agai

031517

3* Texas A&M C. C.+ over Georgia State @ 8:00 Eastern

Cashed our appreciation move last time out, and have won three straight days in College Basketball.  Tonight, we go to Texas for the selection of the A&M Corpus Christi (20-11) unit who has shown great promise this season falling short, however, in the conference tourney.  They finished the season on an 11-2 SU run and bring a 13-1 SU mark overall at home.   Georgia State (20-12) lost their tourney championship hopes when New Orleans beat them again in OT, 68-65.  So, they could be a little flat early tonight and traveling versus a lesser foe from the conference and power rating standpoint (we hope so) might do the trick.  There has been only one series meeting recently and that was in 2010 when the Panthers crushed A&M 72-42.  You can bet the alumni heads will be letting the coach and kids know that they were embarrassed.  A&M is 6-2-1 ATS ff an ATS loss, play in revenge off a loss.  GSU shows 18-37 ATS against .600+ units and 5-15-1 ATS off a double-digit loss.  Finally, the Panthers are bringing a horrid 2-9 ATS record tonight after participating in three consecutive home games indicates a letdown is on-deck. TAKE THE POINTS!

031517

4* Detroit (610) over Utah @ 7:30 Eastern

Last night the Pistons were smashed by an emotional Cleveland club led by LBJ as he went off helping to produce an easy 128-96 win.  Now Detroit (33-34) is in a difficult back-to-back set with Utah coming to town.   The Pistons are, however, 9-2 ATS against the Northwest of late.   Utah (42-25) on the other hand travels after an incredible win over LAC, 114-108.   The Jazz have won 7-of-10 SU and have covered 5 straight vs. the Central.  Not discounting the Jazz talent and SOS advantages, and their 9-2 ATS mark in Detroit, we feel they could show up with not much emotion.  Remember, the Jazz have Cleveland next on the road, so I see this as a super situational edge for Detroit who should come out on fire.   With the Pistons 9-2 ATS against the Northwest and the dog 4-1 ATS in this series, TAKE THE POINTS.

4* Loyola Maryland+ (645) over George Mason

CBB Tourney Reverse Angle...BDS

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4* Canisius+ 4-1/2 (581) over Samford @ 7:30 Eastern

CBB Tourney Smash Mouth Winner…BDS

After winning back-to-back days in tourney action we look to provide our client with another college upset alert which have been on target.   In the CIT tonight with Canisius out of the MAAC and Samford from the SoCon doing battle at the Pete Hanna Center.   The Griffs show 18-15 SU and Samford comes in a little better with a 19-15 mark.  Canisius boards after a season producing almost 79 points per game, hitting 34% from three and a decent foul shooting account of 73%.  On the other hand, Samford too is scoring 79 points per game, 40% from three and 74% from the foul line.  Obviously, the two are very similar in output.  Critical here is the Griffs rebounding from a late season negative streak facing a club who actually surprised before East Tennessee State won the conference tourney.   Granted the Bulldogs have shown outstanding marks in non-conference games vs. the spread, feel the Griffs are clearly flying under the radar losing 4-of-5 down stretch.  No doubt Canisius likes score from the outside and they are overdue for a high-volume game.  Technically, they show 4-0 ATS on the road versus the home team with a .600 winning mark.  In addition, the Griffs are 10-1 ATS as a road underdog.  The Bulldogs bring a 1-6 ATS mark in this chalk price range and a 5-13 ATS record when at home.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Princeton -7 not higher, over Yale

The Eli have a tough bargain this afternoon at the Penn Palestra trying to win back-to-back tourney games no less, this one against the Tigers.   Princeton has won 18 straight, has defeated Yale the last three times out and covered by an average of 13 points per game.   The chalk in the series is a perfect 6-0 ATS L6.  The key question here is will the Tigers be completely physically ready after come from behind to tie Penn yesterday, and then garner their first lead OT going on to win then, in the extra session?   Yale won as the underdog SU against hated Harvard on a neutral floor but, doubt they will have much of a following at this neutral site (Palestra).  In addition, Princeton might have generated an "up" after a game that Penn let slip away in extras.  Finally, in their last game vs. Yale, Princeton shot 59% in a 71-52 win.  If the Tigers score the three with any consistency today, they win and cover.

(773) 4* Princeton over Pennsylvania @ 1:30 Eastern

Our angle is that the Tigers are 13 points better on defense than the Quakers the last five games on the schedule which is critical and indicative of this ATS winner.  We note this encounter is a home game for Penn since the site is the Palestra.  However, the road unit has covered 7-of-10 in the series.  In addition, the Tigers show 6-3 ATS as a single-digit chalk and 24-8 ATS after holding their last opponent to under 50 points.   With Princeton 4-0 ATS versus losing basketball teams and Pennsylvania 1-7 ATS as a dog in this price range, go Princeton!

10* New Mexico+ over Fresno State

CBB Reverse Angle of the Year....BDS

Fresno comes in with the more effective defense, rebounding unit but, lacks the overall scoring ability of the Lobos.  Also, the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in conference, while winning 5 straight coming into action. And, New Mexico is 1-8 ATS at neutral sites.  So, why I ask is Fresno only a -1-1/2 or -2 point chalk?   First off this is a revenge game for NMU and the Bulldogs are a horrid 3-13 ATS when booked as the favorite the last 16 tries.  Also, oddly Fresno is 22-47 ATS in Thursday calls.  From the fundamental standpoint over the last five games the Lobos have been more effective from the foul line, critical against a defensively oriented team as Fresno State.  UPSET!

030817

5* Bucknell (582) over Lehigh @ 7:30 Eastern

College Tourney Blowout Alert….BDS

Lehigh (20-11) has played well down the stretch winning six straight games to advance in tourney action.  Opposing Bucknell (582) goes live this time after winning 5 straight.   In the last five games (current form) the Engineers have averaged almost 84 points, while Bucknell has been knocking down 82 points per session.  Where these two differ is on defense as Lehigh is giving back 70.6 points per game over the last five outing, while Bucknell has surrendered only 64.4 points per.  The Bisons have stingy around the arc allowing only 22.6% accuracy in their recent chart.  Key in the game for Bucknell is stopping Tim Kempton (31, 13 rpg.) from going on an extended shooting streak. He’s been a major in LU getting this far.  From the emotional stand point the Bisons have the edge as they hit the hardwood on an 0-3 downer (Triple Revenge) versus Lehigh.  Good Luck. 

5* OHIO STATE (564) over Rutgers @ 7:00 Eastern

Difficult using State laying this much wood but, can't trust 14-17 Rutgers in a key spot based on recent experience.   Overall the Buckeyes (#49) have played a more difficult schedule than Rutgers (#83) and should be primed for a huge outing.   Ohio State (17-14) has a more effective offense over the last five games (73.8 vs. 61.0) so, if the Scarlet Knight fall behind they will have a difficult road to bounce back, especially considering they are a poor foul shooting team...62.2% this season.  Granted the Buckeyes lost for forward Keita Bates-Diop (9.7) earlier, however, should have the more productive offense and the emotional edge.  Rutgers is 16-35 ATS and 0-4 SU versus the Buckeyes.  In addition, they finished poorly 2-8 SU L10.  Good Luck.

3*  LSU+ (577) over Mississippi State

Difficult to access State's mental after just beating the Tigers at home 88-76 on March 4th.  They now have covered 4-of-5 in the series, the dog remains consistent covering at a 8-3-1 clip.  We all know State has more talent coming with a 15-15 SU (16-11 ATS) record vs. LSUs 10-20 mark.  LSU comes in the #13 seed with a 2-16 SU run against SEC foes.  However, most likely this is the last game for Tigers coach Johnny Jones as the principals have stated he will be fired after the season concludes. LSU is in double revenge tonight.  I believe the kids will play with great emotion here and keep this a buzzer beater type final.  The more talented Bulldogs show 3-7 ATS in this price range when favored and 1-5 ATS off an SEC home (LSU) game.  With the back-to-back series sessions feel LSU will accrue advantages, including the Jones issue.  Good Luck.

030417

4* Harvard (621) over Pennsylvania @ 7:00 Eastern

In these back-to-back Ivy league (this is a tournament) games it’s always difficult for the unit playing away after a SU loss (Harvard) when laying points.  However, the talent edge here is to the Crimson (18-8) over Pennsylvania (12-14).  Yesterday Penn was dumped by Dartmouth, while Harvard was edged out by Princeton again.  Prior to the Tigers, the Crimson had won 6 straight.  In the last meeting between these two Harvard won 69-59.   The Crimson lead the series 7-of-9 SU, 6-1 ATS.  The favorite in the series is on a 7-0 ATS streak.   Harvard shows 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, 9-1 ATS Saturday’s and 14-2-1 ATS in the Ivies.   Over their last nine games the Crimson have are carrying a +14.6 net point advantage.   Over the last five games Harvard is shooting almost 50% from the field and 39.4% from three.  We’ll go Harvard tonight knowing they have gone 4-1 ATS L5 in the second of back-to-back Ivy League games.

4* Davidson+ (605) over Rhode Island @ 6:00 Eastern

Already this season URI has handled Davidson 70-59, and show off a big win away over nicked up St. Joseph's.  The Rams are in the midst of a nice four game winning streak, 3-1 ATS.  Despite the facts, URI goes up against a pesky Wildcat club who just beat the Bonnies last week and has accrued a nice rest period (2/28).  Therefore, we expect the Rams to under play their opposition today knowing they "can handle the matchup" with a few bigger games down the road in the tourney.  The key in the game is the ability of Davidson to hit the arc numbers needed to disturb the improved Rams defense (17.9% effectiveness vs. three ballers) over the last five games.  With Davidson shooting almost 45% in their most recent games, believe they can stay inside the posted number.   Remember, URI is a perfect 0-5 ATS after allowing 50 or less in their last game...Letdown! 

5* Harvard+ (841) over Princeton @ 5:00 Eastern

Last time out Princeton (19-6) hung on to defeat Harvard (18-7) 57-56, and we see a similar type encounter this time around down in New Jersey.  In the overall series Harvard has won 7-of-10 SU.

As far as current form, the Tigers defense has been lights out holding the opponents to 53.4 points per game in the last five Ivy League games.  However, Princeton finished the season with four straight road games, and despite the time off could be a little wasted this afternoon.  Harvard usually plays tough perimeter defense as documented by their three’s defense which allowed just 24.2% effectiveness over the last five games.  On the other hand, Harvard has been scoring well close to 80 points per game recently. 

Technically speaking, the Crimson are 17-4-2 ATS L23 times out and show at 13-2-1 ATS in the Ivies.   Princeton has been strong at home in the series covering 6-of-8, however, the dog in the series has taken 4-of-5.  Finally, with the Tigers 1-6 ATS after three consecutive road games, we’ll back the Crimson in another nail bitter.  Good Luck.  

030217

4* Rider (770) over Manhattan @ 10:00 Eastern

Rider has been a splendid late season surprise for their fans who would love to see a MAAC Championship banner in the gym.  The Broncos come winners of three straight versus the Iona, Manhattan and the “Q” by an average of 15.3 points per game.  In their last meeting with Manhattan shot the lights out 93-82.  In the series, Manhattan is 6-4 ATS L10.   However, the real difference in these units comes over the last five game where the Broncos defense has improved allowing just 66 points per.  Technically, the Broncos are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 or more in their last game, and 8-3 ATS against defenses that forgive 77+ points per.  Manhattan is 6-12 ATS after a conference game and 1-4 ATS versus the MAAC.  

030217

4* Canisius (768) over Marist @ 7:30 Eastern

One of the huge questions tonight is whether guard Parker (12.6) will be playing for the Red Foxes.  Considering the overall situation, we would still recommend a play on the Griffs.   Canisius has owned this series ATS with marvelous 23-8-1 mark.   The have won three-of-four SU and ATS.  The last meeting back on February 19th Marist won 76-74 shooting 59.5% from the field, off the charts marksmanship.  Key for Canisius will be disallowing three balls from the arc by Marist.  Over the last five regular season games, the Red Foxes have shot 40.2% from three, but they have suffered on defense allowing almost 79 points per game.   Technically Canisius is 7-3 ATS at neutral sites, Marist 9-19 ATS.  Finally, with the Griffs in revenge, we’ll lay the points on Thursday night.  Good Luck.

030217

5* Holy Cross+ (789) over Navy

Here is 15-16 Cross facing 15-15 Navy in a Patriot league quarterfinal battle.   Navy of late has been inconsistent, while Holy Cross has improved defensively down the stretch.  Navy this season is 0-2 SU at neutral sites.  The last meeting saw Navy at home defeating Holy Cross 60-47 back in late January.  We note, that loss for the Cross came after a gut wrenching defeat (65-62) to Loyola-Maryland.   Holy Cross has won 7-of-10 in the series.   They have been well down the stretch allowing only 56.8 points per game.   Navy has been staggering lately as it shows in their defense (72.2) which has been given up just 65.4 points per game overall.  Also, the Middies has been struggling shooting 36.8% from the field, 25.5% from three and only 61.5% from the foul line the last five games.   They are 2-8 ATS last ten games.  Holy Cross comes in 7-3 ATS of late, 6-1 ATS in the Patriot league and 7-2 ATS off a SU loss.

4* Niagara (765) over Quinnipac @ 5:00 Eastern

MAAC Tournament

TRIPLE REVENGE situation for the Purples who may not have the scoring ability of the "Q" but, does possess sufficient aggressiveness to surprise here.  These two last met on February 4th, the "Q" winning 89-81.  The staff at Niagara has already they need to keep this encounter in the 70's to support a win in tourney action.   Remember, the "Q" is 2-8 ATS after allowing 90+ points in their last game.  Good Luck.

4* Texas Tech (558) over Texas @ 9:00 Eastern

Tech has got to be one of the best 17-win (17-12) teams in the country, considering their SOS and difficult close losses this season.  In fact, they lost a heartbreaker to UT back in February 62-58 on the road.  However, this time around Tech is at home which leaves Texas in a bad spot.  The Red Raiders are 15-3 SU this season at home.  Texas plays into their current 0-8 SU mark in conference.  As a final note, Texas committed 15 turnovers in the loss to Kansas Saturday, duplicating same would be a disaster for this struggling visitor.  With Texas 0-4-1 ATS as a dog, and Tech 5-2 ATS of late we'll back the home unit.  Good Luck.

030117

4* Dayton (548) over VCU @ 8:00 Eastern

With a win Dayton (23-5) will clinch first place and the appropriate position come the March A-10 conference tourney.  It’s the last home game for the 14-2 (A-10) Flyers , always a big night for the kids and alumni.  VCU shows 13-3 (A-10) trying to tie the Flyers for conference honors.   In their early meeting in late January the Rams killed the Flyers on the boards with a 39-22 edge winning 73-68.  VCU shot 2-15 from three allowing Dayton to stay in the game.  Last time out Rhode Island defeated VCU 69-59, that loss came after nine straight wins.  The Rams have had two major winning streaks with an eight game run in January, included. But, VCU is 1-4 ATS when they score in the sixties.  Also, they are 2-5 ATS on the road and 0-4 ATS on Wednesday.  If Dayton is to be successful this evening they will need to play one of their best defensive games.  Over the last five games they have held opponents to 72.2 points per from the field.  The Flyers are 18-8 ATS this season and bring a 4-1 ATS record vs. >.600 units, and a solid 10-4 ATS record as a favorite.  Dayton has covered 4-of-5 in the A-10.  In their five most recent games Dayton has been solid defensively at home giving up only 61.8 points per.  Take the Flyers to cash tonight.  Good Luck.

030117

4* Sacred Heart+ (577) over Mount St. Mary’s @ 7:00 Eastern

This should be somewhat of an overlay considering the spread opened at -8-1/2 at the Westgate, -9 and some off-shore outlets.  No matter, this is a triple revenge situation for Sacred Heart versus home standing Mount Saint Mary’s (16-15) is coming off a 77-62 success and a wild game over St. Francis-NY, prior they had lost to LIU on the road 62-58.  The Mount is 8-4 SU at home this season but, 0-3 SU on Wednesday’s.  Overall, they have won 7-of-the-last 10 SU but, come is 3-7 ATS L10.  Although they average just 67.8 points per game this season, they have improved over the last five outings 72.5 points per.  On the season, they are scoring just 67.8 points a game.    Defensively, Mount St. Mary’s has improved by three points a game the last five, 65.8 points.  Whereas, Sacred Heart can score and is averaging 77.2 points per game the last five out.  In addition, have competitive numbers 40.3% from three, and a critical 76.8% from the foul line. From the emotional standpoint, and despite the site, in this quarterfinal game in the NEC they just be overlooking an aggressive unit considering they won both conference games this season.  TAKE THE POINTS! 

4* Boston over Detroit

The 37-21 Celtics visit 26-32 Detroit in what should be a real war.   Boston is one of the best road units in the NBA this season against the spread going a solid 18-10-2.  In addition, they create real matchup problems for the Pistons.  Go with the visitor laying the short price.

4* SPC (851) over Canisius

A unique sort of revenge game statistically fraught with historical contradictions.  Exactly, in their last meeting this early February Canisius (17-13) held off SPC (17-12) on the road 72-70 shooting an incredible 54.9% from the field.  The Griffs were lax in the lanes and gave away too many open shots.  Now the Peacocks visit looking to return the favor carrying a solid 5 game win streak but, versus bad teams in conference.  The Griffs have lost back to back games coming in and must rebound to assure solid post season positioning.  However, in Vegas they are 6-14 ATS at home, and obviously the Peacocks have the emotional edge.  This late in the season, as we saw yesterday, current form is critical and that factor favors SPC the last five games scoring at 71.2 points per game allowing 49.8 points, while shooting 51%, 46.7% from three and 75% foul shooting.  I remind you the Griffs have come up short the last five games surrendering 77.6 points.  With SPC off a solid Friday edition and going 7-0 ATS on the road, lay the small number. 

5* LaSalle +1 (817) over UMASS

A-10 GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Rough spot for LaSalle traveling after shooting downer at home vs. Rams.  And that was after an emotional blowout win over banged up St. Joe on the same floor.  The M's show after three straight losses both SU & ATS losing by an average of 16 points with a 96-66 loss to Duquesne thrown in (?).  But, they have one of the best ATS marks on Sunday 13-2-1 L16.  LaSalle is finally getting accumulated to guard Powell being back in the lineup and he should have a big game.  In their initial meeting February 1st the Explorers won big at home 88-77 with Bob Johnson having monster game (28 points with 11 DRs).  No doubt UMass has a more effective defense than LaSalle.  Still, over the last five games (current form) they have allowed 80.8 points per.  With the line minimal we look for hidden edges inside the floor game and LaSalle has a major advantage in foul shooting and three balling the L5 games.  Although, this is revenge game for UMass can't back 1-9 ATS unit laying any points, especially considering the 3-12-2 ATS as home chalk.  LaSalle should be ready after hangover loss (St.Joe) vs. Rams when they shot just 36% overall.  Good Luck.

LATE MONEY MOVE....grab the line with +2-1/2 or higher.

5* Towson (537)+ over William & Mary @ 2:00

CAA GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Normally would not go against the Bill and Mary at home in a revenge situation in conference but, Towson (19-11) does have more overall talent and is trying to win a tourney championship for the first time, currently seeded #3 in CAA rounds next week.  The Tigers dropped a rough go last time to conference leading UNCW (25-5) on their floor.  Towson had won 6 straight prior, including a win over William and Mary 82-80.  Where Towson has improved the last five games is on defense allowing 68.6 points per game.  The Tribe (15-13) shows with a 12-1 SU mark at home.   In addition, the average win margin the last five home games is around 20 points per but, seemingly this is a different team than in prior years.  They were the tourney runner-up the last two seasons, however, they will see a 4th, 5th or 6th seed this time around.   Over their last six games they've covered only two.  Where they falter is on defense as documented the last five times on the floor with 82.6% points per game allowed.   Remember too, they were just crushed by Hofstra 96-82...mood? Technically, the dog has covered 3 straight in the series with the road unit 6-2 ATS of late.  Would normally give credence to the Tribe, however, still can't trust their defensive fall off this season.  Good Luck.

02/25/17

4* Bucknell (722) over Navy @ 12:00 Eastern

The Bisons (22-8) in their last home game and final regular season conference game face Navy (15-14) who they defeated earlier 59-55.  However, Bucknell did not play well in that encounter after a very emotional loss to Princeton 72-70, which still must have the school’s professors pissed off.  Navy visits off three straight losses by an average of 12.6 points, two of the teams were horrid Army and American.  As we know the Middies are grinders, play hard defense, position by position.  They have held the opposition to 64.8 points per game, but have failed lately and maybe a real tired bunch for this Patriot League encounter.  Bucknell plays in first place conference wide and will have the #1 seed in the post season tournament not playing until March 2nd, so you can expect a valid effort here.  Remember the Bisons are an outstanding shooting team ranked #22 in FG%, and come in off a 5 game run of 49%, while shooting 44.7% from three.  Believe Navy will develop trouble trying to reposition the Bisons deep threats, causing foul problems and slowed tempo.  The last time on this floor Bucknell handled Navy 88-58 back in December 2015.  In closing, the Middies are just 2-7 ATS L9 and 2-5 ATS vs. home unit with a >.600 mark.   Bucknell has covered 4 straight, 4-1 in conference and 6-2-1 ATS in Saturday editions.  Good Luck.

10* Hofstra (527) over James Madison @ 12:00 Eastern

TRIPLE REVENGE....Visiting Pride on a mission after losing three straight to JMU, and in fact, two OT losses in 2016 were simply heart breakers for the NY kids.  Hofstra (14-16) has covered 8-of-11 down in Virginia, while going 1-5 ATS in the series of late.   Still, must go against JMU off their emotional road win last time out over Drexel up in Philly.  Where, again, the Dragons committed too many ball handling errors down the stretch allowing the Dukes to win and cover.  Remember Madison (9-21) is just 1-6 ATS on Saturday, while Hofstra has covered on the road of late 3-1-1 ATS to be exact.   

Special note, since the JMU 4 game win streak early this season they have gone on a real downer 4-10 SU.  And in the earlier game with Hofstra the Dukes shot (for them) a solid 52.2% from the field. Can't see any effectiveness from the arc today, considering Hofstra has been allowing opponents just 26.7% from three the last five games, which should help the Hofstra break.  Finally, if JMU shows as a conference underdog in this encounter (with line movement), Hofstra becomes a stronger situation considering JMU becomes a home dog that won SU last time out, and went UNDER the total (old conference system).

022417

5* Princeton (865) over Columbia @ 7:00 Eastern

Not afraid to lay inflated road number with defensive smart Tigers (17-6) in this late season Ivy clash.   The Tigers sit nicely in the playoff realm Ivy style with a 10-0 league record, inconsistent defensive Lions show 4-6 and have NO shot of making the post season.  In their initial game this season down in New Jersey, Columbia (10-13) dropped a heart breaker 71-69 with the recent series battles being fairly close.  So, you can understand why the line is just -7 or -7-1/2 this morning.  The last test had Princeton -14, and they did not cover on the Strip.   Now, in current form must support Princeton who has been in shutdown mode defensively over the last five games holding the opposition to 54.2 points per game, shooting overall almost 48% from the field and 44.4% from the arc, while being deadly on the charity stripe with an incredible 83.3% mark.  Princeton does not waste offensive positions, just ask Harvard and Yale.  Technically, the visitor is 14-2 ATS in this series with Princeton on an incredible 7-0 ATS run at Columbia.  Although, we are always searching for the letdown theory application, feel Columbia’s 7-20 ATS mark as a home dog illustrates a whole different story that can be applied.