I'm laying the points with OKC on Monday night. The Thunder held on for an 87-83 win in Portland last night and were playing without Serge Ibaka and Thabo Sefolosha. The two are both questionable tonight, but whether they play or not, I expect OKC to handle the struggling Suns by margin. Phoenix ended a four games in five nights road trip with a big win in Chicago. But it was just the second win in 13 games for Phoenix...a team struggling badly on the offensive end. Phoenix has failed to reach 100 points in any of their last eight games and they're averaging just 85.8 ppg in their last six. Not good news for the Suns when you consider they're one of the bottom-third teams on the defensive end. Phoenix is 24th in points allowed per game, 29 in FG percentage, and 30th in 3-point defense. OKC heads into town scoring over 105 ppg, while also ranking in the top-10 in most key defensive categories. OKC whipped Phoenix 114-96 on New Year's Eve and I expect another wide margin win in this one. The Thunder have beaten the Suns in seven straight meetings by an average of 10.4 ppg. They're 22-8-3 ATS against western conf teams and on a 4-0 ATS run in Phoenix. Meanwhile, the Suns are on a 0-4 ATS slide when playing with one day of rest. I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Golden State on Friday night. The Warriors are looking to snap their second two-game losing streak of the season tonight and I'm betting they will...and by margin. After a couple of poor defensive efforts against the Grizzlies & Clippers, the Warriors will draw a Portland Trailblazer team that's 28th in the league in scoring in the lane. Portland is also off of last night's come-from-behind, last-second home win over Miami. The Blazers won despite trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter. Portland's five starters could be taxed for this one after combining to play over 200 minutes in last night's contest. The Blazers enter Friday on a 5-11 ATS slide when their starters combine to play over 160 minutes the previous night. They're also 13-27-1 ATS off a SU win. The Golden State Warriors have been getting great backcourt play all season, with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson coming into their own. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS playing on one day of rest and before their last loss, they were on a 7-0 SU/ATS run off a SU loss, winning by an average score of 103-92. I expect THAT Golden State team to show up on Friday. They're on a 24-8-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are on an 8-2 ATS run in this series. I'm laying the points with Golden State on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Wednesday. A loss of concentration to say the least when OKC lost outright to the lowly Washington Wizards on Monday night. Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka combined for a 21 of 36 shooting night and 55 points. The rest of the team was apparently napping, making just 13 of 44 shots, including 3 of 17 from behind the arc. But the Thunder are 38-18 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite with Scott Brooks as coach, and they're 11-3 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a winning SU record. The T-Wolves won the first meeting, 99-93 as a 2-point underdog in December. It was another situation when only two players did damage for OKC. Durant and Westbrook combined for 63 points, while the rest of the team scored a grand total of 30 points on 12 of 33 shooting. Time for an all-out team effort by the Thunder in this one - and they are on a 28-14 ATS run in revenge of a SU loss as a favorite. One week ago tonight, the Thunder lost to Brooklyn by 17. Two nights later, they crushed Philadelphia 109-85 as a 10 1/2 point favorite. I expect another wide margin win on Wednesday. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Golden State on Wednesday night. I went against the Clippers on Tuesday and we cashed when Denver snapped LAC's 17-game win streak. Tonight, the Clippers will be out for revenge. Golden State knows they have what it takes to defeat Los Angeles, having done so at Staples in November, and having won three of the last four meetings SU (4-0 ATS), overall. And as good as the Clippers have played (16-0 SU in December), the Warriors (12-4 in Dec) are only 3 1/2 games behind them in the standings. This will be the first of two between these teams this week with the rematch coming in L.A. this weekend. I believe Golden State will take the first meeting. The Warriors have won three in a row and they're on a 9-2 SU run at home. Mark Jackson has tought this team to scrap. They're one of the top rebounding teams in the NBA and they're playing a much better brand of defense than they were a season ago. The Warriors will also make LAC work harder when GST has the basketball. Blake Griffin is going to have to play non-stop focused "D" on David Lee and Chris Paul will draw Steph Curry at times. This is also the Clips second game in two nights and their third in four nights, while the Warriors haven't played since Saturday. LAC is on a 0-4 ATS slide off a SU loss and they're 1-5 ATS on the road against teams playing better than .600 home court basketball. Meanwhile, Golden State is on a 4-0 ATS run with at least three days rest and they're 20-5-1 ATS the last 26 against teams with a winning SU record. Those situations combine for a 33-6-1 ATS mark. I'm backing Golden State on Wednesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Memphis on Saturday night. Denver continues the NBA's toughest schedule through the first two months of the season with a night game in Memphis. No less than 21 of their first 31 games have come on the road (can't wait for the schedule to even out). They've also repeatedly played the league's top teams. The Nuggets destroyed Dallas last night, and will be playing their fourth game in five nights when this one tips off. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies haven't played since Wednesday and are looking to exact a little revenge after losing twice to the Nuggets this season. Memphis is also off back-to-back losses...something they've been able to stew about, while resting up. And while Denver could be playing with tired legs on the defensive end, Memphis will not only be the fresher team, but they're already a beast on the defensive end where they rank second in the league, allowing less than 91 ppg. Memphis is on a 10-2 ATS run when facing teams with a winning SU record. They're 30-13 ATS at home in home revenge situations. And finally, NBA home favorites are on a 31-9 ATS run, provided they're playing only their second game in five nights against a team that's playing their fourth game in five nights. I'm laying the points with Memphis on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Thunder on Christmas Day. This marks the first meeting since the Heat won the NBA Finals and OKC will be out to exact revenge. The Thunder are also off a SU loss, losing to the Timberwolves last time out (12/20), snapping their 12 game win streak. They enter this one on a 6-0-1 ATS run when playing with at least three days off between games. OKC has been "money" off a SU loss under coach Scotty Brooks. They're on a 37-17 ATS run off a SU loss as a favorite, and they're on a perfect 8-0 ATS run the last three seasons on the road if the upset loss also came on the road. Kevin Martin (probable) has taken the place of James Harden, giving OKC the same kind of energy off the bench, while coming close to Harden's ppg average when he was with the Thunder. OKC is 8th in the NBA in rebound margin, which is a key when looking to play against Miami. The Heat rank 20th in the same category. I believe the Thunder are going to exact a little revenge and I'm taking the points with OKC. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Washington Wizards on Saturday night. The Wizards were crushed by Detroit last night, 100-68. They were eaten so badly that Washington coach Randy Wittman ripped his team publicly and I'm sure behind closed doors, challenging his troops at the very least. I expect a serious bounce back and focus by the Wizards in this one. While they have struggled this season, so has Detroit. In fact, the Pistons only wins since November 28, both came against the Cleveland Cavaliers. So, in a sense, Washington gets "just what the doctor ordered" coming off an embarrassing loss. Washington entered Friday's contest on a 7-1-1 ATS run, so they were at least competitive before the meltdown. Detroit enters this one having covered just 7 of their last 35 following a win by more than 10 points. They're 1-7 ATS off a SU win in general. Washington is on a 4-0-1 ATS run in their last five home games. Look for Washington to bounce back with a revenge win on Saturday night. I'm backing the Wizards. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Pistons & Raptors on Wednesday. Toronto is on a 3-game win streak and they've cut loose on the offensive end along the way. The Raptors have opened things up since the injury to Andrea Bargnani (elbow). They've scored an average of 103.7 ppg during the streak and I suspect they'll continue to attempt to use the same formula tonight. I expect Toronto's pace to drag the Pistons along with them. Detroit will face a Raptor squad that's 27th in the NBA, allowing over 101 ppg on nearly 46% shooting (25th). The Pistons, by the way, are on a 14-6 Over run against teams with a losing record, while the Raptors and Pistons are 6-1 to the Over the last seven times they've met in Toronto. More of the same. I'm playing the Over between the Pistons & Raptors on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Jazz & Nets on Tuesday night. Utah scored a couple of recent wins over the Spurs & Lakers, but seemed to "hit the wall" over their last two games. But the Jazz haven't played since Saturday and they should be re-energized after a couple of days off. In fact, Utah averages 105.3 ppg following at least two days off between games. Their road games are already higher scoring on average than those played in Salt Lake. Utah and their "hosts" combine for an average of 201.4 ppg. I have played a couple of Brooklyn totals already this season with success. The Nets, like Tuesday's opponent, also play a higher scoring brand of basketball with some time off between games. Brooklyn games average 208.4 ppg when the Nets have had at least two days off between games, which is the case tonight. And it should be noted their home games have seen 14 more ppg scored on average than their road games. The Nets head into this one ranked 27th in FG percentage defense, allowing opponents to "drain" 46.1% of their shots. Meanwhile, the Jazz have been tearing it up on offense in the paint. They are average 99.9 ppg on the season overall, while allowing 99 ppg. Utah ranks 20th in FG percentage defense and 22nd defending the 3-pointer. At the same time, when the paint is clogged, Utah can hit from the outside, where they're 8th in the NBA from beyond the arc. Utah is on a 14-6-2 Over run against Eastern Conference opponents, while the Nets are on a 4-1 Over run at home. I'm playing the Over between the Jazz & Nets on Tuesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Charlotte Bobcats on Saturday night. The Bobcats are on a 10-game losing streak, but we have known when to step-in and when to leave them alone, going 2-0 ATS playing ON Charlotte. We had the Bobs when they covered against Atlanta in a 94-91 loss (+9) on November 28, and we cashed again on December 5 when the Bobcats covered as a 7 1/2 point dog in a 100-98 loss to New York. I believe this number puts a lot of value on the home team. My power ratings actually have the Knicks 10.5 points better than Orlando on a neutral court. The Knicks were a 7 1/2 point fave in Charlotte...and after early movement, the Magic are laying as much as 1 1/2 points in Charlotte (at the time of this post), only 6 points less. I firmly believe the Bobcats, despite their losing streak, are the team that would be favored on Saturday if lines were based on power ratings rather than perception. And let's not fail to mention Charlotte's schedule over the last 10 games. Seven of the 10 losses came against Atlanta (twice), the Clippers, the Warriors, the Spurs, the Knicks, and Oklahoma City. Those teams (including ATL twice) own a combined 113-41 winning mark. That's .737 winning basketball. Five of those six teams are in first place in their respective divisions, while Golden State is second in the Pacific. You get the picture. A game against Orlando is a definite step down in level of competition. The Magic caught GST at the right time last night...off the Warriors win over Miami. Orlando is 27th in scoring and 26th from area code three. And they're on a 5-11 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record. I'm betting the Charlotte streak ends here before they head out on a west coast road trip. I'm playing Charlotte on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Celtics and Rockets on Friday night. A lot has been made of the high scoring style of the Rockets with James Harden on the roster. But he's not exactly taking to the role of a minutes-eating key starter - showing signs of bumps and bruises taking their toll, already. When Harden is one the floor, Jeremy Lin's numbers go down - and Lin has been suffering from a sore ankle. But the key reason for my Under is that I expect Rondo and the Celtics to set the tempo and Boston is now playing a strong brand of basketball on the defensive end. In fact, Boston has held their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 ppg on average in regulation. Boston and their seven opponents have averaged a combined 182 ppg in regulation. The veteran Celtics will understand their best chance to win is by controlling the tempo. They likely can't afford to get into a shootout. The two teams are on a 6-1 Under run in Houston and I believe tonight's total has been set too high. I'm playing the Under between the Celtics & Rockets on Friday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Warriors as they continue their road trip. Golden State enters South Beach riding a four-game winning streak, putting pressure on the LA Clippers in the Pacific Division. Mark Jackson has brought a tougher mindset to the Bay Area hoopsters. No longer can teams bully the Warriors. In fact, Golden State is in the NBA's top-5 in rebound margin per game. Offensively, Steph Curry is healthy and finally playing like most thought he would when he came out of Davidson. Curry and David Lee have both topped 20 points in each of the last four games. Lee has a double-double in each of those games and in 13 of his last 17 games. The Warriors are also playing well on the defensive end where they're 5th in the league in FG percentage defense (43.1%) and in 3-point defense (33.8%). Miami has played a better brand of basketball in their last two games, but they do take nights off from time-to-time and all five of this season's losses came against solid rebounding teams. The Heat have not fared well on the glass and they have played a middle-of-the-pack style of defense. Miami enters this one on a 2-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Warriors are on an 8-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. They're 19-6-1 ATS against winning teams, overall, and they're 21-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games. I'm grabbing the points with the Warriors on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bulls on Tuesday night. Chicago enters on their first 3-game winning streak of the season after knocking off the Knicks last time out. The Bulls will look for their sixth win in seven tries tonight, holding opponents to less than 87 ppg in their last six outings. Chicago is getting outstanding play from Marco Belinelli, averaging over 20 ppg during the Bulls 3-game run. Chicago will be in revenge of an ugly loss in Los Angeles on November 17. This Bulls' version is playing much better basketball than they were then. And they're on a 16-5 ATS run at home in same season revenge, winning by an average score of 95-86. The Clippers are off to a 14-6 start, but just 4-3 on the road. They've played a favorable schedule, but they're 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning SU record and on a 0-4 ATS slide on the road. Chicago got some good news on Monday when Kirk Hinrich was upgraded to probable. They're getting nice work from Nate Robinson if the former Kansas Jayhawk needs a spell. Luol Deng commented that the team is getting used to the lineup that doesn't include Derrick Rose yet, and it's showing in the win column. I expect the Bulls to exact some revenge and I'm taking the points with Chicago on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Warriors & Nets on Friday night. Golden State allows 98.8 ppg on the season and at least one team has topped 100 points in 9 of their last 10 games. Steph Curry is finally showing how good many thought he'd be in the NBA, now that he's seasoned and 100% healthy. And when these teams met on November 21, after a slow start, they combined to score 108 points in the second half of a 102-93 Brooklyn win. The Nets have allowed teams to "can" 46.1% of their shots, which ranks 26th in the league. Meanwhile, a hot Golden State team is on a 47-27 Over run when totals are posted in a range that includes tonight's. And they're on a 5-1-1 run to the Over when playing on one day of rest. I'm playing the Over between the Warriors & Nets on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Thursday night. The Heat have a couple of reasons to be extra motivated for this one. First of all, they were drilled 104-84 by New York in early November. I'm not big on NBA revenge, but while I believe that does lead to extra effort, I believe it was the Heat's most recent performance that will have them focused on Thursday. Miami lost to previously 1-win Washington on Tuesday, 105-101 in the nation's capital. But Miami is back home where they're a perfect 8-0. They have averaged 110 ppg off their previous three losses this season. And they'll look to atone for a loss to a NYK team that "canned" 19 of 36 3-pointers, (52.8%), in the earlier meeting. New York shoots too many treys for my blood. I went against the Knicks last night and we cashed with the Bobcats. The Knicks attempted 41 3-pointers in the game. But it's Miami who sits at or near the top of important offensive categories. Miami is #1 in the league in FG percentage and 2nd in the league from behind the arc and in scoring. Knicks' star Carmelo Anthony may be a little hamstrung tonight after receiving stitches to one of his fingers during last night's contest - I don't mind if he plays his normal game or not...I'm still on the Heat. Miami is on a 10-2 ATS run on one day rest. They're 7-1 SU in their last eight against the Knicks (6-1 ATS last 7), including a 4-0 ATS home mark. And finally, NBA teams playing .600-.750 ball are 32-10 ATS off a SU loss of at least 10 points, provided they were a favorite, and their current opponent is also playing .600-.750 ball. I'm laying the points with Miami on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Charlotte Bobcats on Wednesday night. The Bobs have dropped three straight games, but they have all been by 6 or fewer points. I had the Bobcats plus the points over Atlanta recently, and we covered the spread. They're an improving team despite the short losing streak and will face a Knicks' squad that has a big game with Miami on Thursday. The Knicks have won three straight after dropping three of four and I expect them to look past Charlotte enough to keep this one close. The Bobcats are better than advertised inside and have underrated backcourt players in Gordon, Sessions, and Walker, not to mention small-forward Kidd-Gilchrist. The Knicks expect to get Jason Kidd back on the floor after missing four games and Raymond Felton isn't 100% healthy after injuring his hand last time out. Those can be minor distractions that mean a little more with the look-ahead game on deck. I expect Charlotte to hang this number at the very least. I'm taking the points with the Bobcats on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Thunder & Nets on Tuesday night. Brooklyn has been much more comfortable on the offensive end at home than on the road and tonight, they'll face an Oklahoma City squad that will lead them into an uptempo game. The Thunder are tops in the NBA, averaging over 105 ppg. They're 2nd in the league in both FG percentage and 3-point accuracy. And OKC has averaged over 111 ppg in their last nine contests. They've allowed 108 points or more in four of their last eight games, so I expect the Nets to do some offensive damage, themselves. Brook Lopez is doubtful for the Nets, but the bench has picked up the slack, scoring 43 points in their last two games combined. Brooklyn scored 59 first half points against Miami last time out, but scored just 30 points after the break. This team will look to atone for that performance and I expect a high scoring contest. I'm playing the Over between the Thunder & Nets on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Nuggets & Warriors on Thursday. These teams just met on Friday and while there were only 193 points scored between the teams, it wasn't due to stout defensive play. Denver made just 17 of 30 free throws and "canned" just 5 of 19 3-pointers, yet still scored 102 points. In fact, Denver is starting to find a chemistry with their new additions and they have topped 100 points in four straight games and in five of their last six. The Nuggets own the league's 7th best mark from the field, making 45.5% of their FG attempts, while the Warriors should counter with a strong perimeter game. Stephen Curry has been outstanding this season and he's getting help outside from Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes. Once again, going back to Friday's game, Barnes, who has three double-doubles on the season combined with Steph Curry to score a grand total of just 10 points. The two combine for an average of nearly 30 ppg! I expect a return to form on their home floor tonight. An interesting series note: Tonight's is the first time in 27 meetings that the total opened below 200. The Nuggets & Warriors are on a 15-5 Over run when they play at Golden State. And Denver is on a personal 5-1 Over run away from home. I expect both teams to score their share of points and for this one to go Over the posted total. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Boston on Wednesday night. Tough spot for the Nets who were sky-high for their first ever Brooklyn home game against the Knicks last time out. Not only were emotions on high...like a playoff atmosphere, but the Nets were able to beat their rivals, 96-89 in overtime - and the celebration began. Boston also has the revenge motive, for what it's worth, for a 102-97 loss in Brooklyn earlier this month. One key cog was missing from that game, however, and that's Rajon Rondo, who's back for this one. No Rondo meant the Celtics were missing his 13.5 ppg, 13.7 apg, and 4.8 rpg. And let's not forget that Rondo has recorded at least 10 assists in 37 straight games. The Celtics enter this one as the third best shooting team in the NBA, "canning" over 47% of their FG attempts. But they haven't been as strong as usual on the defensive end, however, KG and Rondo are both looking to put up a fierce effort at both ends of the court tonight. I'm betting they will succeed. I'm laying the points with the Celtics on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night. The Kings have been playing much better basketball of late. They're 2-1 after three games against the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers. Sacto beat L.A. 113-97, played well, but came up short in a 104-102 loss in Salt Lake, then slammed the Jazz in a quick rematch, 108-97. The Kings enter Tuesday on a perfect 5-0, 100% ATS run following a win by more than 10 points. They're also seeking revenge, (for what it's worth), for a 92-80 loss at Minnesota on November 2. Not only did Sacto make just 32 of 89 shots, but they were outscored 26-13 at the free throw line. It should be noted that Tyreke Evans is playing much better basketball right now than he did in the loss to Minny. Evans, averaging 14.5 ppg, made just 3 of 14 shots for 6 points in that meeting. Minnesota is a much different team right now than they were then. First of all, they will be missing Chase Budinger and Brandon Roy tonight. Budinger scored 9 points and grabbed 5 rebounds in 21 minutes in the first meeting. Roy not only started that early November contest, but scored 10 points and dished out 6 assists in 30 minutes of action. Yes, Kevin Love is back, but he's not yet 100% and his team is not playing well with him on the floor. After playing sound defensive basketball early on, Minnesota has now allowed 101.5 ppg in their last four games. Love was the only member of the T-Wolves to grab more than 6 rebounds in their loss to Golden State. Besides Sacto's 5-0 ATS run mentioned earlier, the T-Wolves are on a 0-5 ATS slide in their last five games (10-0 combined mark). And finally, the Kings are on a 6-1 SU/ATS run at home against the T-Wolves. I'm laying the short number with the Kings on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over in the matchup between the Clippers & Thunder on Wednesday. Both teams are red hot. The Clippers enter on a six game win streak, while the Thunder have won seven of eight. LAC owns the league's third best scoring average of 101.5 ppg and they are the NBA's second best shooting team, making 49.2% of their shots. OKC is equally dangerous on the offensive end, making 48.2% of their shots (#3 NBA), including a league best 43.5% from area code 3. The Thunder average 101.7 ppg and an even better 104.3 ppg during their current 7-1 SU run. I expect both teams to push the ball up the floor and for both offenses to continue their red-hot ways. OKC is on a 5-0-1 Over run at home against teams with a winning road record, and they're 4-1 to the Over in their last five against LAC. I'm playing the Over between the Clippers & Thunder on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Bulls on Wednesday night. The Bulls are off a tough loss against the Boston Celtics, while the Phoenix Suns won their last game when they knocked off the Denver Nuggets. Phoenix has been roughed-up in this situation, currently on a 0-8 ATS slide after winning outright in their previous game. Chicago has been excellent off a SU loss, going 39-18-2 ATS. And when the Bulls roll into town, you know defense will be first and foremost for the visitors, especially after allowing a lot of points. Chicago gave up 101 points in their 6-point loss to Boston and they're on a 16-6 ATS run after allowing at least 100 points in their most recent game. Derrick Rose replacement Kirk Hinrich may not play in this one, he's currently listed as questionable. But that doesn't bother us. Truth be told, Nate Robinson has been better at the "point" for Chicago than Hinrich of late, especially on the road. But most of all, no matter who is playing point-guard for Chicago, I expect the Bulls to get back to their defensive ways in this one and I'm laying the points. Chicago on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Monday night. The Heat were rattled by Memphis on Sunday. Miami decided to defend the paint because Memphis went into the game with the fewest amount of attempted and made 3-pointers in the league. Instead, Memphis "canned" 14 of 24 treys, en route to a 104-86 win. Zach Randolph went into the contest as though it were a statement game for the Grizzlies and they played like it. Memphis is now 3-1 SU against the Heat in the "Big-3 era." But the Heat have had little trouble with the Rockets and James Harden. Harden has been a tale of two players in six games with Houston. In two games against the lowly Pistons and one against the Hawks, Harden was a combined 34 of 58 from the floor, including 8 of 20 from area code three, averaging 34 ppg. When the compeition stepped-up, in games against Portland, Denver, and Memphis, Harden averaged just 19 ppg, while making just 17 of 57 (29.8%) of his shots, including 2 of 17 from behind the arc. He has not been effective against the Heat as a member of OKC and I suspect he'll find the going tough against a fired-up Miami team tonight. The Rockets are on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record, while the Heat are 11-4 ATS following a SU loss by more than 10 points. I'm laying the points with the Heat on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Denver Nuggets on Friday night. Not a great opener for the new-look Nuggets who lost 84-75 at Philadephia. I'm a fan of Denver's off-season moves, though, and they did play better on the defensive end holding the Sixers to 35% shooting, including 28% from behind the arc. But Denver did not shoot well themselves and they were outscored 17-5 at the FT line. I expect the Nuggets to continue their outstanding play on the defensive end against a rebuilding Orlando team, while improving their offensive numbers from game one at the same time. Denver is on an 11-2 ATS run after playing as a road favorite in their previous game. NBA teams off a road loss that finished with a winning record the season before are 64-32 ATS, and Denver is on a 4-0 ATS run against the Magic. I'm betting Denver will even up their season record to 1-1 SU/ATS...and I'm laying the points. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pistons on Wednesday night. This will be one of the better situations we'll find on Detroit in the early weeks of the season. The Pistons follow their opener at the Palace with a six games in nine days Western Conference road swing...a bit daunting for a team that won just 7 of 33 road games a season ago. They won't have Corey Maggette for this one, but they certainly have more than enough to handle a Houston team that will be attempting to get on the same page. The recent trades that brought James Harden to the team just adds to the confusion and I expect the Rockets, who're certainly rebuilding, to struggle while they attempt to develop a little team chemistry. Detroit was on the plus side of .500 at home last season and I'm betting they'll take care of business before heading out on the road. I'm laying the points with the Pistons on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Miami to win and cover on Thursday night. I had Miami in Game 4 and it was obviously a close call down the stretch. But stretch drive decision making is one of the main reasons I went with Miami. The Heat are experienced in the Finals having lost last season and they truly "grew up" in losing the series to Dallas. They're making the "right" decisions in crunch time and OKC simply is not. The Thunder are young and inexperienced in this spot and it has shown in key situations. Also, as talented as Russell Westbrook is, taking 32 shots to Kevin Durant's 19 is just not smart basketball and I don't care what the "talking heads" say or how much praise they heap on Westbrook. He's a great talent, but he's not doing enough to get others decent looks at the basket and that's supposed to be part of his job. Then there's James Harden who has been a shell of himself in the Finals. Harden scored 17 points in the first two quarters of Game 2. He has scored a grand total of just 26 points in the other 14 quarters in this series. Harden has made just 4 of 20 shots the last two games combined, including 1 of 9 from behind the arc. James and Wade are playing inspired basketball right now and their teammates are responding. LeBron suffered from leg cramps in Game 4, but he should have no problem being ready for Game 5. OKC is in must-win mode, obviously, but besides their inexperience in the Finals, they're 0-3-1 ATS as a dog of less than five points and 2-6-1 ATS off a spread loss. Meanwhile, the Heat are on a 20-8 ATS run as a playoff favorite. They're on an 8-1 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball and Miami is on a 4-0 ATS run when laying points. I'm laying the points with Miami on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Tuesday night. I had the Thunder in Game 3 and obviously lost, but the game was 50-50 in the final minute as far as the spread was concerned. But that was a game I felt OKC should have had. And while the talent is there, I just don't believe the Thunder can slow LeBron James. James was already the best player in the NBA, but I'm not sure he truly trusted that notion himself, until his Game 6 performance in Boston. Since then, James' confidence has taken a leap to yet another level. James has lived at the rim on offense the last two games and there's not much OKC can do about it. When the Thunder clog the paint, Miami has been able to drain a big 3-pointer, which extends the Thunder defense. And with Dwyane Wade stepping up and Chris Bosh playing healthy, the "big 3" should be too much for the Thunder to handle tonight. The Heat attack is also putting Kevin Durant on his heels...and the other night, on the bench in a key stretch of the game. I believe Miami's experience in last year's Finals are a big difference in this one. "We're a totally different team than we was last year when we was up 2-1," James said Monday. "We're a totally different team. We understand what it takes to win, we've used that motivation, and we will continue to use that motivation." Miami is on a 19-8 ATS run as a playoff favorite. They're 7-1 against teams playing better than .600 basketball, and they're 13-4 ATS against teams that force no more than 14 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, OKC has covered just one of their last seven as a dog of less than five points. I'm laying the points with Miami on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with Oklahoma City on Sunday night. I released Miami as my Tapout GOY on Thursday and we won as the Heat opened the game with an 18-2 run and held the lead throughout the entire game. Miami not only made the "right" adjustments from Game 1, especially starting Chris Bosh like we said we thought they would, but they were also hitting on all cylinders on the offensive end. It also helped us that OKC forgot the keys to their offensive success. Russell Westbrook took a few too many shots and didn't look to make the "extra pass" as much as he did in the previous five games. The Thunder finished with just 14 assists after averaging 22.4 apg in their previous five games...all wins. Serge Ibaka and Thabo Sefolosha were non-existent on the offensive end on Thursday after contributing important numbers in Game 1. Look for OKC to get back to their shot-creating, passing offense on Sunday. OKC is outstanding at bouncing back, currently on a 60-29-1 ATS run off a SU loss. They're 5-1-1 ATS on the road against teams with a home win percentage above .600, and the Thunder are on a 7-1 ATS run in Miami. I'm grabbing the points with the Thunder on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with Miami on Thursday. I had OKC on these pages in Game 1 and the Heat did what we expected them to do, showing the wear of a series with Boston that went the distance. Miami looked worn out in the fourth quarter, but they were within six in the closing minutes before losing by 11. Let's not forget that the Heat looked like they might "steal one" in OKC for most of the first three quarters. But the Thunder found a way to pull away at the end and since the game went final all we have heard is that the Heat are "in trouble" in this series. Besides the fact they were in the tougher scheduling spot, it took a game for the Heat to get accustomed to OKC's ridiculous quickness. Miami had trouble with the Thunder's high double-screens, and they simply gambled too much on the defensive end, leading to too many open looks for Thunder shooters. Those are things than can be resolved from one game to the next. I suspect we'll see even more of Chris Bosh and maybe even as a starter - along with an additional player or two coming off the bench. When Bosh is on the floor, it opens things up for Dwyane Wade, who was a no-show on the offensive end in Game 1. Adjustments should be the key in this one, along with the fact the Heat are in a better spot, overall, than they were in Game 1. Miami has fared well off bad losses, currently on a 10-3 ATS run off a SU double-digit defeat. I'm grabbing the points with the Heat on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Thunder in Game 1 of the NBA Finals as they look to extend their run as a favorite to 6-0, 100% ATS. We give Miami their just due for overcoming a 3-2 deficit and defeating the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. But should it have really been that difficult? Now, LeBron James and company have to face the ultra-quick and athletic Thunder. Miami has not seen a team with this much defensive quickness in the postseason. OKC wasn't always in position during their four game win streak against the Spurs, but they're quick enough to make up for it. They also matured in the Western Finals at both ends. OKC finally got Russell Westbrook to buy into passing the basketball and creating for others on a regular basis. And on the defensive end, Scott Brooks switched up after losing the first two games and put Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker, neutralizing the Spurs' star guard. I do believe it's going to take a game for Miami to adjust to the speed they're about to face, not to mention the individual talent they'll face that outweighs anything they have seen in the postseason. And let's not forget the way Kendrick Perkins defended the rim against LeBron when Perkins was a member of the Celtics and James resided in Cleveland. That's a lot to adjust to and I haven't even mentioned Serge Ibaka and James Harden. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade will need to come up big for Miami to win the series and they just might. But in Game 1, the Ihunder are in the much better situation, as far as I'm concerned. Miami is on a 0-6-1 slide as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Thunder are on a 4-0 ATS run in OKC. That's a combined 10-0 mark. I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Celtics & Heat on Tuesday night. The series has seen three straight Overs, however, it took an OT period to sneak Over the total last time out. Now, back in Miami, I expect to see a final combined point total much like we saw in Game 1 when the teams combined for 172 points. Miami coaches and players alike say they need to refocus on the defensive end and this is obviously a huge game for them since their season could end on the road next time out if they were to be upset in this one. I suspect both teams will work to clamp down on the defensive end and I also believe it'll start early. Boston scored 34 and 30 points in the first quarter of Game 3 and Game 4, respectively, eventually winning both games. Miami's focus will be on denial right from the opening tip as they look to re-set the series tone. Miami is on a 25-9 Under run as a home favorite and they're 10-3 to the Under when laying 5 to 10 1/2 points. Meanwhile, Boston is on a 12-2 Under run after playing two straight Overs. I'm playing the Under between the Celtics & Heat on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Spurs on Saturday night. A couple of defensive adjustments and a better attack plan on the offensive end, combined with a flat effort by the Spurs led to a blowout win for Oklahoma City in game 3. But San Antonio has still won 10 of the last 12 games against OKC and I believe they'll be the team that makes the correct adjustments in this one. The Spurs normally do so off a bad loss. They're on an 8-0 ATS run off a loss by at least 20 points and they have outscored those eight opponents by an average of 106-93. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 0-8 ATS off a win of 20 points or more, allowing 104 ppg in those eight contests. Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker was the biggest adjustment by the Thunder last time out and it worked well. On the offensive end, the OKC guard-forward cleaned up, scoring 19 points, 14 points above his average. Russell Westbrook surprised everyone, looking to distribute as much as he looked for his own shot. But again, these were all minor adjustments that can and I believe will be countered by arguably the best coaching staff in the NBA. The Spurs are the deeper team and they are the better team and they love playing at the pace expected tonight, going 21-5 ATS when the total sits 200 or higher. Look for San Antone to bounce back on Saturday. I'm taking the points with the Spurs. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Heat & Celtics on Friday night. Boston has played in 15 playoff games in 2012 and if tonight's total closes 180 or higher, it will be the first time this postseason. As I post this play, most shops have it at 180 1/2. While I obviously understand the adjustment, I believe it's too high. Last time out, Boston and Miami shot "over their skis," to borrow a term from a national radio host. Boston nailed 40 of 81 shots with Rajon Rondo making 16 of 24. Miami saw outstanding contributions from Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem, who made a combined 14 of 28, or 50% of their shots. And of course, there was the highly talked about frequent trips to the FT line with the teams combining to make 57 of 76 attempts. I truly believe it's going to be ultra tough for any of the above to be repeated in Game 3. Boston has to clamp down on the defensive end and play Celtic basketball if they wish to get back into this series. And Miami is more than likely to revert back to a James-Wade attack...with their so called secondary contributors falling back to the norm. I believe we are in for tenacious defensive efforts from both teams, leading to a much lower scoring game. The Heat are on a 27-9 Under run on one day of rest. They're 37-18-2 to the Under in their last 57 overall, and on a 4-0 Under run as a road dog. Meanwhile, Boston is on a 19-7 Under run as a favorite of less than 5 points. I'm playing the Under between the Heat & Celtics on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Spurs on Thursday. I was on the Spurs in each of the first two games of this series and we're a last-second trey away from a 2-0 mark. I see no reason to jump to the other side in this one. Yes, OKC is a quality team, no doubt about it. But this year's Spurs may be one of the top five NBA teams of all time - again - no doubt about it. And while OKC has decided they need to change what got them here by "getting ugly," the Spurs can continue to do the things that have led to a ridiculous 20 game win streak. The Thunder think they need to foul and get "ugly" as they put it since they stormed back into Game 2 after falling way behind. But what this team really needs to do is get Russell Westbrook to mature on the offensive end. There are still way too many times when Westbrook brings the ball up court and doesn't look to distribute to Kevin Durant and/or James Harden. It cost the Thunder in last year's conference finals and it's been a factor in this series. But the bottom line is that like many other teams, OKC doesn't matchup well with San Antonio. No matter what style the Thunder have utilized, they're 1-10 SU in their last 11 against the Spurs. In fact, San Antone is on a 5-1 SU/ATS run in OKC. Serge Ibaka has been exposed as a limited defender in that he doesn't understand the myriad of San Antonio pick-and-rolls. And if the Thunder do "figure it out" and help Ibaka out, those pick-and-rolls become "pick-and-kicks," which means the man with the ball rolls into the paint then kicks it out to the perimeter for an open look more often than not. The Spurs can play it either way. They have proven it all year. Boris Diaw has helped turn this team into a strong defensive team and OKC simply runs too basic of an offense to attack it. Can the Thunder win this game? Of course they can. They own a ton of talent. But they're going to have to play a near-perfect game and hope the Spurs play a full four quarters like they did for three quarters in Game 1. Still, San Antone won that game. Gregg Popovich's crew are on a 40-12-4 ATS run overall. They're 21-4 ATS with a total of 200 or more, including 10-1 ATS on the road. They're 8-1 ATS against teams that average no more than 20 assists per game...again, Westbrook must "change his spots" and I don't believe it's going to happen. Instead of talking about better offensive distribution, the Thunder are talking about how physical they're going to play. OKC enters on a 2-9 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning record and 1-5 ATS against teams playing over .600 basketball. I believe the win streak will continue, but I'm grabbing the points for insurance. I'm backing the Spurs, plus the points on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Wednesday night. I had the Heat on Monday and under normal circumstances, I may very well come back on the dog in this one. But these aren't normal circumstances. The injury to Avery Bradley means Boston has no one to matchup with Dwyane Wade and we know LeBron James is likely to "get his" no matter what. The Celtics are also hamstrung on the offensive end with no one to count on from the deep perimeter since Ray Allen is playing injured. Miami did not play well in the second quarter on Monday, but blasted Boston in the first and third quarters and held onto a decent-sized lead in the fourth. Getting out-scored 35-25 in the second gives the Heat something to focus on, much like San Antonio did last night after struggling for large chunks of Game 1 against OKC. A healthy Boston team may win on the road in this situation, but again, thanks to all the bumps and bruises, they're not going to be at their physical best on Wednesday. Boston is on a 1-6 ATS slide when playing with one day off between games and they're on a 0-4 ATS skid as a playoff dog of 5 to 10 1/2 points. By the way, Miami is on a 10-3 ATS run as a favorite in the same line range. The Heat are also on a 4-0 ATS playoff run overall. I'm laying the points with Miami on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Tuesday night. I lost with San Antone on Sunday in heart-breaking fashion when James Harden nailed a "meaningless" 3-pointer at the buzzer. Then again, with the lack of intensity from the Spurs for most of the first three quarters, San Antone probably had no business winning outright, let alone covering a 5 1/2 point spread. But they did win - with what I would call their "B-game" at best - and against a very good Oklahoma City squad. That's how good this year's Spurs team is. But it also speaks to the lack of "game plan" by OKC on the offensive end. The Thunder are extremely quick getting to "the spot" on the defensive end. But they are basically a pass once, shoot the ball team on the offensive end and that will not work against San Antonio. In fact, the Thunder are now 1-9 SU in their last 10 against tonight's opponent. At the same time, the Spurs are a ridiculously well-oiled machine on the offensive end and saying this team bases their offense off of pick-and-rolls is doing them an injustice. The Spurs run several versions of the pick-and-roll and they absolutely exposed Serge Ibaka in the fourth quarter on Sunday. I truly believe the only team capable of making a big improvement in Game 2 from Game 1 is the Spurs, who will bring "the nasty" much earlier tonight. The Spurs are 13-2-1 ATS off a spread loss. They're on a 16-3 ATS run against teams that attempt at least 18 treys per game. San Antone is 20-4 ATS when the total is 200 or higher - showing they enjoy playing at the expected pace. And finally, Gregg Popovich's crew are on a 21-5-1 ATS run when playing with just one day off between games. I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Monday night. I agreed with Heat coach Erik Spoelstra when he stated that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are going to have to put up huge numbers and carry the offense throughout the playoffs. I also believe that the two stars will be enough to carry Miami to a win and cover in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I had Boston in their Game 7 win over Philly and we cashed the ticket. In fact, I had them in both games where they had two days off between games. The Celtics had just one strong performance when playing with only one day off between games in the series with the Sixers - and it came in Game 3 off a SU loss at home. With all their bumps and bruises, I do believe Boston is going to struggle in the series opener. Boston has one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA and now play a Miami team that's crushing opponents on the defensive end. The Heat have held their two playoff opponents to under 90 points in six of their 11 playoff games thus far. Miami has also fired on all cylinders to start each of their two playoff series, winning and covering both Game 1 tilts. The Heat fit a solid 41-15 ATS NBA spot - playing on home favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points if they lost to their opponent in their last meeting and scored less than 85 points in the loss, provided the home team plays between .600 & .750 basketball and the opposition owns a winning SU record. They're also 15-5 ATS as a playoff favorite and 6-0 ATS on at least 3 days rest. Meanwhile, Boston is on a 0-4 ATS slide off a SU win. I'm laying the points in Game 1 with Miami. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Sunday. There will certainly be adjustments made in this series, but I believe OKC is in some trouble in Game 1. The Spurs have "owned" the Thunder. San Antone has won 8 of the last 9 meetings and didn't even have their current full lineup for many of those contests. Heck, Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker were on the floor at the same time less than 300 minutes combined this NBA regular season, an average of about 4 minutes per game. Ginobili missed all 3 of this season's head-to-head meetings with OKC. Boris Diaw, the acquisition who put this team over the top on the defensive end wasn't part of any of the Spurs' last 8 wins against OKC. And let's not forget, Dejuan Blair ate the Thunder's lunch on the offensive end the last two seasons and he was a forgotten man in San Antone's first two playoff series thus far. Who's going to guard lengthy Matt Bonner and his perimeter shooting? When the Thunder are on the offensive end, Durant and Westbrook can attempt to drive and draw fouls, but the Spurs don't foul. The list goes on-and-on and it's going to take the Thunder a game to adjust, in my opinion. Oklahoma City is on a 0-4 ATS slide against teams that are playing over .600 basketball, while the Spurs are on a 6-0 ATS run against those teams. Besides their incredible 18-game SU win streak, the Spurs are on a 39-11-4 ATS run overall, and they're 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. More of the same. I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Celtics on Saturday. When Philly has beaten Boston it has been in ugly fashion. I just don't think it's going to continue in Game 7. The teams have had two days off between games and the only other time they have been in this situation in the series, Boston crushed the Sixers over the final 24 minutes of Game 5, winning 101-85. The well rested Celtics, or Bass, Garnett, and Rondo, to be specific, couldn't miss. Rondo finished with 14 assists and just 3 turnovers and the team ended the game with 22 assists and just 10 giveaways. We had the Celtics in that one and I have them again in Game 7. A day off and a day to prepare means the legs should be under the Boston veteran players and I suspect they'll be "on their game" on the defensive end. I would expect the Celtic shots to ring true just like they did in their Game 5 blowout victory. Boston is on an 8-2-1 ATS run off a SU loss, while Philly has covered just 5 of their last 16 on the road against teams playing at least .600 basketball at home. Boston will be without Avery Bradley (shoulder) who will not return even if they advance, but I don't see it hurting them in this one. I'm laying the points with Boston. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Heat & Pacers on Thursday evening. We have all seen the number of personal fouls that have been called in this series and we also heard Larry Bird challenge his squad, calling them "soft." But despite all of this, I believe we are in for a fierce defensive battle that will lead to a low scoring game, whether the teams are shooting free throws or not. Game 5 was looking like an Under with a 41-38 score with three minutes left in the first half. Danny Granger injured his ankle at that point, playing just a few ineffective minutes in the third quarter and the entire flow of the game changed. Miami, or more specifically, LeBron James & Dwyane Wade went "nuts" on the offensive end and the game went over the posted total. Look for Indiana's interior players to take Bird's challenge to heart and challenge James, Wade, and anyone else who attempts to enter the lane. At the other end, the Pacers absolutely must attempt to get the ball inside to Hibbert and West to a certain extent. Doing so will take time off the play-clock. The Heat are on a 12-4-1 Under run after scoring at least 100 points. They're 24-6 to the Under on one day of rest and 7-1 to the Under on the road against teams with a winning home record. I'm betting we are in for more of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Heat & Pacers on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm backing the Miami Heat on Sunday afternoon. We have dissected every remaining team in the postseason and while Indiana is playing the best "team" basketball in the Eastern Conference, I do believe the talent of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will carry them to a win in what is virtually a do or die situation. Lose this one and they will be one loss away from elimination. But it's more than just a case of needing a win. As good as Indiana is playing, they still don't have the individual matchups to thwart James or Wade if both are on their game. Wade has been shaky, but I expect a bounce-back game from the star guard in this one. I believe having two days off between games could not have come at a better time for the Heat. The team took Friday off, but there's no doubt they will seek to set up Wade in "friendlier" situations on the offensive end right off the bat on Sunday. Free-up Wade to make a few early baskets and the entire team will benefit at both ends of the floor. It should be noted that NBA road favorites with winning records are on a 35-12 ATS run if they're off an upset loss by at least 15 points. Miami's in that situation and I believe they'll come through with the win and cover. I'm laying the short line with the Heat on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm backing Oklahoma City on Saturday night. I released the Lakers on these pages last night and let's face it, the Thunder had their chance to virtually put this series to bed, up by five points in the final minutes before Kobe Bryant rescued the Lakers. The fact is, it did take L.A. a 41 of 42 night from the foul line to gain the win. I bet and posted the Lakers because I felt they were in a terrific spot. Tonight, they aren't in a great spot and I believe the more talented team, the OKC Thunder will come through for us. The Lakers have had problems against quick ball-handling guards, both before Fisher was dealt and since Sessions arrival. OKC's quickness will be too much for the home team, playing with playoff intensity without a day off between games. The Thunder are a money-making 58-28-1 ATS following a SU loss, while the Lakers have covered just 7 of their last 26 off a SU win. They're also on a 5-13-1 ATS slide at home. I'm backing the Thunder on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the 76ers on Friday night. Boston played about as well as they can in their game-3 win two nights ago. But we do know that the Sixers matchup well with their Atlantic Division rival. We saw Philly come within a basket of winning the first two games of this series in Boston. And the Sixers took two of three meetings in the regular season. By the way, the blowout margin of victory last time out was nothing new for these two teams. Four of the six meetings in 2012 have been decided by at least 13 points with the Sixers winning by 13 and 32 points in two of their wins. It should be noted that the Celtics have covered just 8 of their last 31 when they're off a double-digit road win, rarely putting together big back-to-back games. Meanwhile, the Sixers are on a 4-1 ATS run when hosting Boston. I'm laying the points with the Sixers. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm backing the Miami Heat on Thursday night. Miami has little to change on the defensive end. In fact, no adjustments are necessary in this series. The thing they need to do is "sink" open looks. Do that much on the offensive end and they would have won game-2 in South Beach. Open looks went around-and-out or clanked off the iron, leading to a 1-of-16 performance from area code 3. Defensively, the Heat have given all one could ask for. They have held Indiana to 59-of-151, 39% shooting through two games, including 7-of-32 from behind the arc. Besides making their "open looks," the "others" as Shaq calls Miami players not named Lebron, Wade, or the injured Chris Bosh, must up their energy and crash the boards. They did so in game-1, but left a lot to be desired in game-2, finishing with a minus-10 rebound margin. Playing with more energy and a greater sense of urgency is not tough to do. I believe the shots will fall more frequently, also. Miami struggled as badly as they can on the offensive end, yet still had a chance to win the game down the stretch. The Heat are laying a point as I post this report and they are on a 12-4 ATS run as playoff chalk. Meanwhile, the Pacers have covered just 4 of their last 18 against teams playing .600 to .700 basketball. They have been outscored by an average of 8 ppg in those 18 outings, including the games they covered. Miami bounces back and I'm with them. I'm playing the Heat on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Lakers on Wednesday. Game-1 was certainly a one-sided blowout. But that was what we expected when we posted the Thunder on these pages. But the Lakers are not going to fold up tent. OKC receives as much hype, if not more, than any other Western Conference team...at least since the all-star break. Not too long ago, the Thunder became the media's "lock" to win the Western Conference. I mentioned on these pages that I believe San Antone would catch the Thunder...and they did. Now, with the Lakers being counted out by west coast media, I'd like to borrow a Lee Corso line and say, "not so fast, my friend." OKC may very well come out on top in this one, but I expect a game that goes right to the wire. The Lakers are not your typical team as far as getting down on themselves after suffering a blowout loss. Kobe Bryant spoke all about that fact on Tuesday. His on-court leadership, like him or not, keeps this team focused on the task at hand, and I believe they forgot about the 29-point loss shortly after leaving the arena on Monday. The set-up couldn't have been any better for OKC and they took full advantage. But we'll see the Lakers at their best tonight, in my opinion. And I highly doubt OKC, the team with the NBA's highest turnover average in the regular season is going to give the ball away just four times tonight. Look for the Lakers to get better attempts inside for both Bynum and Gasol, which will allow them to do more as a team on the offensive end and help them ease into a more Laker-friendly pace. Los Angeles is on a 5-0 ATS run off a SU loss of more than 10 points, backing up Kobe's claim. Meanwhile, the Thunder have covered just 3 of their last 15 after scoring at least 110 points. And they're 0-7 ATS after a SU win of at least 20 points, allowing 108.4 ppg in those outings. The 5-0 Laker spot combines with the OKC 7-0 play-against spot for a 12-0 combined mark. I'm grabbing the points with the Lakers on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Celtics & Sixers on Wednesday. The teams combined for only 163 points in Philly's game-2 victory and I expect the winning team in this one to once again score in the low 80s. These division rivals know each other inside and out and defense should rule for the entire 48 minutes. The Sixers are 12-3 to the Under at home against other Atlantic Division opponents and they're 26-9 to the Under as home chalk in general. Both teams shot under 42% last time out and free throws were at a minimum, with Boston shooting just 9 FTs for the entire contest. The officials have been letting them play despite a fiercely contested series and there's no reason to think things will change. Boston relies on defense, obviously, and they're on an 8-1 Under run as an underdog of less than 5 points. Look for these familiar foes to get after each other on the defensive end again tonight. I'm playing the Under on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Tuesday evening. I jumped on the Spurs right out of the blocks this postseason, releasing San Antonio in their game-1 tilt with Utah on these pages. The Spurs won big and covered. I mentioned in that April 29 analysis that Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker had spent a grand total of just 297 minutes on the floor at the same time during the entire regular season, an average of just 4 minutes per game. I also mentioned along the way that the additions of Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson were two of the best acquisitions made by any NBA team this season. Diaw and Jackson have helped the Spurs become a very good defensive basketball team, while at the same time, they haven't hurt themselves on the offensive end. The Clippers are going to have to face San Antone's "bigs." They'll be hard-pressed to defend their pick-and-rolls, not to mention fast-breaks and post-ups. The Spurs' backcourt is outstanding. The Clippers have to defend the perimeter and the Spurs move the ball around and spread the floor as well, if not better than any team in the league - and I'm not just talking about this season! That's a lot more to handle than the Clippers faced in the opening round series with Memphis. LAC may be a play later in this series, but the experience they're in for in game-1 is going to be a serious wake-up call for the visitors, in my opinion. The Spurs enter on a 14-0 SU & 12-1-1 ATS run. They're 22-5-1 ATS at home this season, including a 10-1 ATS run as home chalk of at least 11 points. And deep perimeter shooting teams have had it tough against the Spurs. San Antone is 18-1 ATS against teams that attempt at least 18 treys per contest. I'm betting game-1 gets ugly. I'm laying the points with the Spurs. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points on Monday night with Oklahoma City. I had the Lakers on Saturday and we cashed a win...a close cover, when they wrapped up their first round series. Los Angeles was able to "escape" against a so-so Denver squad, despite the immature antics of Andrew Bynum and the sometimes uninspiring play of Pau Gasol. They're here because of Kobe Bryant's ability as a player and in pulling together his team after they blew games 5 and 6. But tonight's series opener is certainly going to be tough on the Lakers in my opinion. Despite adding Ramon Sessions, the team still struggles badly against quick point-guards and I believe it's going to take at least one game to adjust to the onslaught they'll face when the Thunder are on the offensive end. Los Angeles rarely looks on the same page two games in a row, while that is certainly not a problem for the rested Thunder. I say "rested" because the Lakers are on a 6-16 ATS slide on one day of rest. They're 0-6 ATS off a SU win, and Mike Brown's troops have covered just 12 of 35 road games. OKC whipped the Lakers in the lone home game against them this season, winning 100-85 as a 7-point favorite. The Thunder made 47% of their shots, while holding the Lakers under 40%. And while Kobe scored 24 points, he only made 7 of 24 shots, playing with a hand in his face throughout the contest. I expect similar results and I'm laying the points with Oklahoma City. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Celtics on Saturday. I expect a letdown by the Sixers in today's tilt. After all, I feel confident in saying that it was a complete fluke that got them past the Bulls and into the second round of the playoffs. If not for injuries to Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, we'd be talking about whether or not the aging Celtics could deal with the young guns of the Bulls. Even with Chicago's key injuries, the Sixers still had to go to the wire in a one-point win to wrap up the series. Philadelphia was crushed on the glass by a 56-33 margin, including a minus-10 on the offensive glass (15-5). Yes, it certainly was an upset for Philly to win the series - and yes it was a fluke. Philadelphia was a "bully" this season in the NBA. They beat the bad teams and struggled against good teams. The 76ers have covered just 7 of their last 28 against teams with a winning record. They're 3-10 ATS on the road against teams with a home win percentage above .600. Meanwhile, the Celtics are on an 8-1 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record. And while they're thought to be an aging team (which they are) age surely hasn't bothered them playing with one day off between games, going 17-5 ATS the last 22 times. It should also be noted that Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are expected to play. Boston has clobbered the Sixers the last two times they met on this floor and I expect more of the same on Saturday. I'm laying the points with the Celtics. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Hawks & Celtics on Thursday evening. These two teams have now met five times in a short period of time. It's obvious they know each other's strengths and weaknesses and we're talking about a series that has already featured strong defensive play. Atlanta has not shot well through the first five games and they're averaging just 82.6 ppg. Boston has scored more than 90 points just once in the five games. The officials are letting these teams battle it out on the floor - we haven't seen a ton of free throw attempts and that certainly helps the defensive intensity remain high. Boston enters on an 8-2, 80% Under run as a playoff favorite and they're 23-8-1 to the Under as a favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. More of the same in this one. I'm playing the Under between the Hawks & Celtics on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Heat on Wednesday. Miami had their chances to sweep the Knicks and give themselves a decent amount of rest before their next series. Instead, they lost focus and blew an 11-point third quarter lead. The Heat were shaky on the defensive end, allowing New York to make 50% of their shots in the third quarter and Carmelo Anthony ate them up, making over half of his shots for the game. Miami made just 3 of 19 (15.8%) of their 3-point shots after making almost 40% of their long-distance attempts in the first three games. They also missed 11 of 35 free throw attempts. I think it's safe to say the Heat didn't bring their "A-Game" in the second half. I expect Miami to be at their best in this one and we have seen them absolutely dominate the Knicks when they are on top of their game. Add in the fact that NY has lost yet another ball-handler (Baron Davis) and I expect the Knicks to go down in flames. Miami is on a 10-4 ATS run as a playoff favorite and they're on a 6-1 ATS run at home. I'm laying the points with the Heat on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Over between the Spurs & Jazz on Monday night. These kind of spots are some of my favorite in the NBA. We have two teams that have played three straight Unders and we have seen a steady decline in the posted totals. Game-1 saw a total of 206 and tonight's has been set 7 1/2 points lower. That may be the "right" adjustment for the "money" the books are going to take, but it creates great value for those of us who handicap and wager for a living. San Antonio is the league's second highest scoring team, averaging 103.7 ppg. They're the NBA's top-ranked team in both FG percentage and 3-point accuracy. At the same time, they're middle-of-the-pack on the defensive end. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 4th in the league in scoring, but 23rd in ppg allowed. Now that the total has been over-adjusted, I'm looking for a bust-out scoring performance. The Spurs are on a 40-17 Over run on the road against teams with a winning home record and they're 10-3-1 to the Over as a road favorite. Utah checks-in with a 42-20-2 Over mark as a dog of 5 to 10 1/2 points. We won with the Under in the game-1 tilt, but tonight I'm betting the Over between the Spurs & Jazz. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. No Josh Smith to go along with their other injured "bigs." Zero made shots for the rest of the game by Tracy McGrady after rolling his ankle in game-3. The return of Ray Allen and a record-setting performance by Rajon Rondo. All this, yet the Celtics still were forced to go to overtime to win on Friday. It also didn't hurt that Boston scored 10 more points at the FT line than Atlanta on 10 more attempts. Tracy McGrady is expected to play on Sunday and Josh Smith is listed as probable. Add in the confidence gained by Erick Dampier and Jason Collins last time out and I believe the Hawks are going to give Boston all they can handle and more in this one. And as far as I'm concerned, the Celtics are laying too many points despite the fact it's lower than the game-3 line. Boston has not fared well in this situation, going just 3-15 ATS as a playoff favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Atlanta is on a 6-0 ATS run off a SU loss and they're 6-0 ATS on the road. Take away common results (Boston losing ATS as an 8-point fave last game and ATL covering both off a SU loss and on the road in the last game) and we have a 24-3 ATS combined mark. I'm grabbing the points with Atlanta on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Saturday night. Utah is talking about all the changes they need to make, like giving Derrick Favors more minutes at power forward, while playing Paul Millsap at small forward for more minutes, and increasing the time on the floor for the Jazz "bigs." The problem is that when they go with the bigger lineup, the Jazz are extremely hamstrung on the offensive end. The Spurs can pack it in a bit because Utah just doesn't have deep perimeter shooters. So far, in the two blowout wins, the Spurs have outscored Utah 120-80 in the paint. No doubt the Jazz will come out with an intensity the Spurs have yet to see - and the joint will be jumping. But when things settle down, I expect San Antone to throw their weight around, especially in the second half. And while the Spurs have crushed the Jazz in the first two games of the series, Manu Ginobili has been highly critical of his own play. You have to like the intensity we'll see out of Manu tonight. Some may be worried about a San Antone letdown. I'm betting against it. "What I see is ultimate focus," forward Stephen Jackson said. "Nobody is talking about the next series. Everyone is focused about what's in front of us." The Spurs are on a 37-11-4 ATS run overall. They're 14-3-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record. And the Spurs are on a 7-0 ATS run on two days rest. We should also note that San Antonio loves playing at tonight's expected pace. They're 19-3 ATS when the total is posted at 200 or more. I'm backing the Spurs to take the 3-0 series lead with a win and cover on Saturday night. I'm laying the points with San Antone. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Bulls & Sixers on Friday night. The Chicago Bulls, ranked #1, #2, and #3 in the NBA in points per game allowed, FG percentage defense, and defending the 3-pointer this season, respectively. That team didn't show up in the second half of game-2. The Bulls watched the 76ers score 62 points over the final 24 minutes of action and Philly couldn't miss, finishing 46 of 78, 59% from the field for the game. Doug Collins surprised the Bulls a bit, changing his starting lineup after losing game-1. But most of all, Sixers' PG Jrue Holiday teed-off without Derrick Rose on the floor. There will be changes made on the defensive end for the Bulls in this one. But most importantly, the effort is going to be much better for an entire 48 minutes. Luol Deng said, "All year, we always believed that for us to win games, (we have) to rely on our defense." I expect their shutdown defense to be much better in this one. So does coach Thibodeau who said his team didn't defend and didn't rebound, allowing the Sixers to gain confidence with too many easy baskets. Chicago has been stingy on the defensive end in revenge of a loss where the opponent scored at least 100 points. They're on a 23-7 Under run in those contests. They're on a 16-5 Under run as a road dog, including 4-0 when getting less than 5 points. Meanwhile, the Sixers are on a 23-9 Under run as home chalk. I had the Under in last night's OKC-Dallas game and mentioned I expected serious game-3 defensive intensity. I expect both teams to pick it up on the defensive end tonight. With each of the first 2 games going Over, we now have the highest set total of the series thus far. I believe we now have value on the "low." I'm playing the Under between the Bulls & Sixers on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Thunder & Mavericks on Thursday night. The Over cashed in both games, beginning with the combined 55-point fourth quarter in game-1. The game had a 189 projection through the first three quarters of action. The high scoring pace continued into and through the first half of game-2, with the teams finally settling down over the final two quarters. Now back home and in need of a win, I expect Dallas to refocus on the defensive end. The teams combined to score just 181 and 187 points in this season's two meetings at this venue. Meanwhile, Rick Carlisle teams are on a 24-10 Under run at home in revenge of a loss by 3 points or less...averaging just 184 points in those 34 games. Dallas is on a 5-0 Under run at home against teams with a road win percentage over .600. OKC will oblige with the more defensive pace as we saw in Dallas in 2012. The Thunder are on an 11-4 Under run on the road against teams with a winning home record. I expect defense to be the key in tonight's game and I'm playing the Under. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Clippers & Grizzlies on Wednesday. The books opened this one higher than game-1 closed thanks to the 197 point "outburst" in the Clippers' 99-98 improbable win. LAC scored just 39 points in the first half, but "canned" 50% of their shots for the game, scoring 60 points over the final two quarters of play. In fact, the Clippers scored 32 points over the final 10 minutes of the contest. That projects out to more than 153 points if a team were to score at that pace for an entire four quarters...just to show how out of the norm the final quarter turned out to be. I expect serious defensive intensity by both teams tonight, especially from the Memphis Grizzlies who, thanks to blowing game-1, are now in their biggest game of the season. Memphis has been an Under team all season and they're 19-7 to the Under with a total ranging from 180 to 189 1/2. They're 9-1 to the Under following an upset loss as a favorite, picking it up on the defensive end. And the series is on a 6-2 Under run between these two teams. More of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Clippers & Grizzlies on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Bulls on Tuesday night. No Derrick Rose may signal the end of Chicago's realistic chance to win the NBA title, but I'm betting it only serves to pull the team together in tonight's game-two tilt with the Sixers. I mentioned in my game-one write-up on the Bulls that I felt Chicago would cover the spread even if Rose didn't play. He was listed as probable as you'll recall. Now the line has dropped by a couple baskets and I certainly feel they will still win the contest by roughly a dozen points. The Bulls played without Rose quite a bit this season and everyone knows their part when it comes to picking up the slack. One of those players, Luol Deng is someone the Sixers have no one to match up with - on either end of the floor. Break it down and the Bulls own advantages in almost each of the top-7 head-to-head player matchups in this game, despite the loss of Rose. I believe the Bulls will be motivated to show they're a team to beat even without their superstar. Philadelphia has covered just 7 of their last 29 against teams with a winning record. And they're on a 2-10 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Meanwhile, the Bulls are on a 5-0 ATS run as chalk. I'm laying the points with Chicago on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Sunday. Not too long ago, Oklahoma City went on a hot stretch that had most in the media handing them the Western Conference title and a berth in the NBA Finals. But the Spurs played their way to the top spot and they're not the "aging" team that many thought they were when the season began. Between shrewd coaching moves and an injury to Manu Ginobili, the Spurs' veteran stars are rather healthy and rested - and are backed by a fantastic bench. A recent article pointed out that the "big 3" of Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker had been on the floor at the same time for a combined 297 minutes this season. The ENTIRE season! That's an average of just 4 minutes per game. They're now playing a Utah team they have dominated, currently on an 11-3-1 ATS run at home against the Jazz. Utah did change things up as far as going to a bigger lineup in April and they will most likely do so again on Sunday. While it helps their interior defense, it makes them more vulnerable to San Antone's perimeter stars, including both Ginobili and Parker. And when the Jazz have the ball, this lineup does limit or hamstring their scoring. They simply don't have enough "shooters" on the floor. We may see San Antone packing it in the paint a little more than usual on the defensive end in this one. Ty Corbin did a very nice job making the changes that got his team into the playoffs. But they don't match up well with the Spurs, especially now that the postseason is here and the key Spurs' players will get their playing time. The Spurs have played extremely well when the total is set at 200 or higher, currently on a 17-3 ATS run in this situation. They're on a 20-5-1 ATS run at home - and a 12-3-2 ATS run at home against teams with a road win percentage below .400. And finally, the Spurs are on a 5-0-1 ATS run as a favorite in a line range that includes today's number. I'm laying the points with the Spurs in game one. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Over between the Knicks & Heat in Saturday's game one tilt. As I post my report, the total sits at 186 1/2 for Saturday's contest. Each of the last 13 meetings between these two teams have seen a higher posted total. All three of this season's meetings have seen a higher posted total, including two totals of 196 1/2 and 204 1/2 - and both meetings in Miami went Over today's number. And it should be noted that 9 of the last 13 meetings have had totals of 203 or higher. Miami expects to have "all hands on deck" for this contest, with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh listed as probable. Let's remember that this team is the 7th highest scoring squad in the NBA and the 4th most accurate team when it comes to FG percentage. And teams can "nail" treys against the Knicks, who're 23rd in the league defending the 3-point shot. Tyson Chandler may play today, but he is suffering from the flu and listed as questionable. If he's not 100% healthy, or if he misses any or all of this game, the Knicks will be hamstrung on the defensive end inside. I believe they're in trouble defensively, even if Chandler is 100% healthy. New York enters on a 7-2 Over run against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Miami is on an 8-1-1 Over run as a postseason favorite, and they're 5-0 to the Over as a playoff favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. I believe the total has been set too low and I'm playing the Over between the Knicks & Heat. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Suns & Jazz on Tuesday night. While these two teams have played at a quick tempo in their two previous meetings, tonight's contest does offer the highest posted total of the three 2012 matchups. But I believe we're going to see an increased level of intensity on the defensive end from both teams with playoff implications on the line. Phoenix has done a nice job of setting the pace on the road, so to speak, against teams that average at least 99 ppg. Those totals have been set too high and the Suns have slowed the pace, currently on a 7-0 Under run on the road against those squads. We're talking about a team that's on a 21-11 Under run in their last 42 road games overall. Also increasing the posted total are the recent games played by the Utah Jazz. But it should be noted that two of those three games went to overtime. The Jazz & Magic scored a combined 22 points in OT, and the Jazz & Mavs combined to score 66 points in triple-OT on April 16. The Jazz are 6-0-1 Under tonight's current total (203 as I post the play) in their last seven games in regulation. Including the OT contests, the Jazz have scored 117, 112, and 123 points in their last three games. Again, those numbers were skewed by OT periods in two of the three games. It should be noted that the Jazz are on a 17-5 Under run after scoring at least 110 points in at least two straight games. And with Ty Corbin as coach, the Jazz are 18-5 to the Under when the total is posted from 200 to 209.5. Both teams have a lot to play for and I expect the teams to really pick it up on the defensive end. I'm playing the Under between the Suns & Jazz on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Clippers on Sunday. We rode underdog Denver to a win yesterday, going against the Suns who were in a virtual must-win spot. The Clippers need a win as they look to overtake the Lakers in the Pacific Division, but I don't expect the "pressure," if any, to get to this team. New Orleans has been a covering machine of late...but most of it came at home. New Orleans, in their last three road games (sans pathetic Charlotte) are 0-3 SU/ATS despite getting a lot of points. The Hornets lost to Memphis, San Antonio, and the Suns, by an average final score of 108-90! The last time they played on the Clippers' home floor, the Hornets were whacked 97-85...trailing by 19 points at the start of the fourth quarter. New Orleans made 50% of their FGA in the contest, yet still were no match for LAC. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are both probable for this one and I suspect they'll look to build a big lead out of the blocks. The Hornets are on a 3-12 ATS slide after winning 6 or 7 of their previous 8 games. And like I stated earlier, they were no match in their last 3 road games against playoff-bound or contending opponents. More of the same. I'm laying the points with the Clippers on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm taking the points with the Nuggets on Saturday. While the game is somewhat important for Denver, the outcome is huge for the Phoenix Suns. Denver would wrap up a playoff spot with a win tonight since they already own the tiebreaker over the Suns, winning the first two games of the season series. But the main reason I'm on Denver is simply because Phoenix doesn't matchup well with the Nuggets. Denver has won five straight in this series, going 4-0-1 ATS. They won both of this season's meetings, by scores of 105-99 and 109-92. The Suns had no one to matchup with Arron Aflalo in either of those games and the same holds true in tonight's meeting. Aflalo has scored a combined 50 points in the two meetings on 18 of 30 shooting, including 7 of 13 from area code 3. The Nuggets have been outstanding against 3-point trigger happy teams, currently on a 22-11 ATS run against teams that attempt at least 18 treys per game. They're on a 27-9 ATS run as a road underdog, including 13-3 ATS if getting more than 3 points, but less than 6 1/2. And the team is on a 5-0 ATS run off a SU loss. When Phoenix struggles against certain teams, they don't usually shore-up the matchup deficiencies. The Suns are on a 6-21 ATS slide in same season double-revenge, if their opponent scored at least 100 points in the previous two meetings. Denver has been too strong on the offensive end for the Suns and I expect more of the same in this one. I'm grabbing the points with the Nuggets. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Friday night. The Lakers crushed the Spurs the last time these teams met in the state of Texas, and while San Antonio returned the favor in L.A. the other night, the fact is, the Spurs would like nothing better than to beat the Lakers WITH Kobe, in front of the home folks. "I want him to play," point guard Tony Parker said. "I want to play the Lakers at full strength. It's a good challenge for us, with the playoffs beginning in two weeks." Bryant, (shin), expects to be on the floor tonight after missing seven straight games. While he should play, I doubt he'll see his usual minutes. The game does have a little more importance to the Spurs who're in a battle for the Western Conference top spot with OKC. San Antone leads the Thunder by 1/2 a game, but they also own the tiebreaker. As far as this matchup is concerned, Gregg Popovich sat "small" big man DeJuan Blair in favor of starting Tiago Splitter alongside Tim Duncan when the Spurs faced the Lakers on Tuesday. After grabbing 30 rebounds in the Laker win in San Antone, Andrew Bynum was held to 7 rebounds against the "twin towers" of Splitter and Tim Duncan. I'm sure we'll see a lot of Splitter again tonight. Offensively, Tony Parker completely exposed Ramon Sessions' one weakness...defensive play. As far as the Lakers are concerned, coach Mike Brown has stated that it's more important to keep Kobe healthy than it is to win any of their remaining regular season games. I believe with the adjustments being made by Popovich, along with the desire being expressed by Parker, the Spurs will pull away from Los Angeles in this quick turnaround. Both teams were off yesterday and the Lakers have covered just 3 of their last 15 with a day off between games. The Spurs enter on a 21-8-2 ATS run at home. They're 23-6-3 ATS as a favorite, and 8-2 in their last 10 against teams playing better than .600 basketball. I expect the Spurs to make it two wins and covers over the Lakers in less than a week. I'm laying the points with San Antonio. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Pistons on Thursday. We had Detroit on these pages a couple nights ago and were rewarded with an easy 116-77 winning ticket. Yes, I do know the Pistons are playing their third game in three nights. But this team didn't exactly work their tales off against Atlanta last night and I also believe the line has been adjusted too much for the situation. In fact, my power ratings make the Pistons a full 4 points higher than the posted number of 5 1/2 at the time of this release. Detroit is healthy, while Minnesota is a M-A-S-H unit. These teams met in mid-January in Minneapolis. The Pistons led by 7 points through three quarters, but went ice cold in the fourth, getting outscored 29-14 and losing 93-85. Kevin Love scored 20 and grabbed 17 boards. Ricky Rubio added 9 points, to go along with 8 assists, 7 rebounds, and 6 steals. Obviously, both are out. Minny heads into this one "O-for-April." The T-Wolves are 0-10 SU, 3-7 ATS this month, losing by 11 ppg. They're on a 1-10 ATS slide against teams playing below .400 basketball. Detroit has been a much better team during the second half of the season, especially against non-playoff bound or contending teams. They're on a 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS run against such squads, winning by an average score of 104-90. The Pistons are on a 9-3 ATS run at home against teams playing less than .400 road basketball, and they're 11-3 ATS against teams that force no more than 14 turnovers per game. Detroit has scored at least 105 points in six of their last nine against non-playoff contending teams, holding four of the last six to 85 points or less. I'm laying the points with the Pistons on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. This is an important game for both teams. OKC sits a half game behind San Antonio for the top seed in the Western Conference standings, while the Suns are currently in an 8th place tie for the final spot in the West, but they do own the tiebreaker advantage over Houston. A tiebreaker is another motivational factor for the Thunder because they would lose it if they and the Spurs finish with the same regular season record since San Antone won the season series. Oklahoma City is off one of the most embarrassing two quarters of play in their last game, while the Suns "canned" 60% of their shots in their 125-107 win over Portland. The Thunder scored a grand total of 25 points in the second half of their 92-77 loss to the Clippers last time out. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were a combined 11 of 34 shooting, including 1 of 12 from behind the arc. This extremely talented team, with simply too much for Phoenix to handle, are 11-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by an average score of 103-90. NBA teams with a winning SU record are 34-11 ATS as a road favorite off a loss of at least 15 points as a favorite. OKC have won five straight meetings with the Suns, including both of this season's tilts. The Thunder won by scores of 115-104 and 107-97. The Suns have covered just 4 of their last 20 in revenge of a road loss by at least 10 points. And while Steve Nash (hip) is expected to play, the future hall-of-famer just doesn't have the talent surrounding him to end their five-game skid against a hungry and embarrassed Thunder team. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Pistons on Tuesday night. The Cavaliers have all but shut things down this season. Kyrie Irving may play again before the end of the season according to coach Byron Scott, but he also stated that Irving won't play on Tuesday. Irving's absence adds to already missing players Daniel Gibson and Anderson Verejao. Meanwhile, the much healthier Pistons are getting "just what the doctor ordered," as far as I'm concerned. Detroit has won just one of their last six games outright, but they just played on the road against Orlando, Miami, and Atlanta, with home games against Chicago and Milwaukee. Detroit whipped Charlotte 109-85, the only opponent that isn't in the playoffs or were fighting for a playoff spot in those six games. Detroit won the last meeting between these two teams by an 87-75 final score. Kyrie Irving scored 22 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, and delivered 6 assists in that contest. He'll be missed by the Cavs tonight. Cleveland heads into this one having covered just 6 of their last 22 and losing by an average score of 103-90 in revenge of a double-digit loss. They're on a 0-4 ATS slide on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Pistons are on a 14-6-1 ATS run at home. They lost in OT at home to Chicago last time out which puts them in one of their best situations -- Detroit is 12-2 ATS at home off a home loss. I expect a wide margin win and cover in this one. I'm laying the points with the Pistons on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Hornets & Bobcats on Monday night. While I expect these two teams to combine for more points than they scored in their March 12 meeting (144), I do believe the teams will stay below tonight's posted total. New Orleans and Charlotte have met three times since December 1, 2010, and all three went well Under the posted total. The 144-point output came with a posted total of 182. In fact, it was the second straight time the teams had a posted total of 182, going Under the first time by 13 points. And in December of 2010, the teams combined to go Under by 22 1/2 points, with a 185 posted total. We should make note that Jarrett Jack (out for the season) scored 15 points in the March contest (144 points). I have been involved with several Bobcat totals over the last couple of months - and I believe we have a pretty decent feel of how this team plays against certain opponents. New Orleans downed Memphis 88-75 last night and they're now on a 13-3 Under run following a win by more than 10 points. The Hornets normally play slower tempo games against teams that don't create mistakes...those that average no more than 7 steals per game and the Bobcats fit the bill. The Hornets are on a 26-13 Under run in those games. They're 26-11 to the Under against weak 3-point shooting teams, those that make 33% or less from behind the arc, to be exact. New Orleans plays a decent brand of defensive basketball, allowing just 93.7 ppg, and they're second in the league, holding opponents to 31.8% from behind the arc. At the same time, New Orleans is the second worst scoring team in the league, to...you guessed it, the Charlotte Bobcats. The Bobs are dead last in ppg, FG percentage, and 3-point accuracy. As mentioned above, these two have played to an average combined point total of 158.3 ppg in their last three meetings, yet tonight's total is higher than any of those three meetings, thanks to Charlotte's lackluster play on the defensive end for most of the last 4 weeks. But that just gives us value, in my opinion, and I'm playing the Under between the Hornets & Bobcats on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Blazers & Kings on Sunday. All the talk in Portland has been the uptempo style of play under the "new" regime. But the fact is, besides a high scoring game against Golden State, the Blazers haven't been doing a lot of scoring over their last several games. In fact, they have scored 99, 84, 94, and 91 points in regulation in four of their last five games. Sacramento is also not scoring a lot of points, topping 96 just one time in their last six games. The last eight times these teams have met, we have seen the books post a total of 196 or less - and the teams are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 meetings. The first three head-to-head tilts this season saw combined scores of 187, 190, and 180. While we may see more points scored in this one, we certainly have plenty of wiggle room with the total around 207 1/2. The Kings have played four straight Unders against teams with losing records, while the Blazers are on a 5-1 Under run against sub-.500 teams. I believe the adjustment is too much and I'm playing the contest to stay Under the total. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Saturday night. The Thunder need to take every game seriously, including the battered and bruised T-Wolves, to maintain a one-game lead over the Spurs in the Western Conference standings. Under normal circumstances, I might be inclined to play the Over in this one. But with the numerous injuries to the T-Wolves, most importantly, to Kevin Love, I'd rather pluck my money down on the Thunder. OKC is 2-0 SU against Minnesota this season. The Thunder won the first meeting 104-100. Key T-Wolves from that meeting who're now missing, include Kevin Love (22 points & 12 rebounds), Michael Beasley (24 points & 5 rebounds), Ricky Rubio, and even Darko Milicic, who scored 12 points in almost 20 minutes. OKC won game-two, 149-140 in double-OT. Love threw down 51 points, while grabbing 14 boards & Luke Ridnour also had a big game. All of those players are not going to be in uniform for the home team tonight. "It's really hard to run an offense because we just don't have any chemistry right now because of all the different players that are playing," coach Rick Adelman said. "We're missing the ballhandling, we've gotta have J.J. with the ball and it's really been difficult." Russell Westbrook must be "champing at the bit" to take the game right at J.J. Barea. OKC played last night, but the 26-point blowout win over Sacto allowed a lot of players to play a lot of minutes. In fact, OKC put 10 players in double-figures in minutes played last night. A regular practice could have been more exhausting than last night's easy win. The Thunder will be a focused team for this one - and no starter should feel weary. Minnesota, losers of eight in a row SU, are on a 1-9 spread slide and 0-4 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Thunder are on a 6-0 ATS run against teams with a losing record. Those last two spots add up to a 10-0 ATS mark. I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Bucks & Pistons on Friday night. Mention "Total" adjustment and this one takes the cake. These teams have met three times this season and the posted totals were 183.5, 182, and 178. The teams combined to score and average of 182.7 ppg, well below tonight's current total of 202 (at time of posting). Detroit rocked Charlotte last night, scoring 109 points along the way on 52% shooting. This from a Piston team that ranks 25th in FG percentage. Those who have followed me this NBA season know what I think of the Bobcats and their inability to even come close to denying another team's tempo. Before last night's "outburst," Detroit had topped 99 points in regulation just once in their previous 11 games. Go back 12 games and you'll see that the linesmakers never set a Piston total higher than 193, with an average posted number of 187.9. Tonight's number is based overwhelmingly on Milwaukee's recent performances. And while an adjustment was necessary to distribute action the way the books needed, I'm betting it was set too high. The Pistons, playing at home, are on a 22-8 run to the Under with a Total range of 200 to 209.5. They're on a 7-0 Under run as a dog of 3 1/2 to 6 points, with an average combined final score of 173. Milwaukee is desperate for a win if they hold onto any hopes of a postseason berth and I believe this will make for an even more intense effort on the defensive end. I'm playing the Under between the Bucks & Pistons on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night. Many times when teams return home from a lengthy road trip, they take a game to get back in the swing of things. But that hasn't been the case for Houston. The Rockets are on a 6-1 ATS run at home after spending at least seven days on the road. And what a road trip it was. Houston won all four games (eight days) including wins in Chicago and in L.A. over the Lakers. Now they take on a battered and bruised Utah team that the Rockets crushed in Houston in February. These two teams have blown out the other on their home floors. But the Jazz come into this one missing four 20-minute plus players, including C.J. Miles, Earl Watson, Raja Bell, and Josh Howard. All are expected to miss yet another game. When Utah beat Houston in Salt Lake, Miles threw down 27 points on 10 of 16 shooting. As it is, Utah is virtually a six-man team right now, with Derrick Favors being the only one off the bench who mattered against the Spurs last time out. And while the Jazz won the game, it should be noted SAS left Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker at home. The Spurs, with those three players, whipped the Jazz the night before. The 10-point losing margin hardly told the story with the Jazz trailing by as much as 17 points at the half, midway through the third, and well into the fourth. The best news for Houston, besides the emergence of Goran Dragic is the return of Kyle Lowry, who'll be playing in his third game tonight after missing several weeks. Dragic averaged over 18 ppg and 8 apg in 17 starts. Lowry, meanwhile, scored 32 on 9 of 13 (7 of 8 treys) shooting in their home win over Utah. The Jazz head into this one on a 1-8 ATS slide as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 6 points, losing by an average score of 106-93. They're 1-5-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Rockets have enjoyed playing against uptempo teams, sporting an 8-1 ATS run against teams that average at least 83 shots per game...Utah fits the bill. They're 10-2 ATS at home against teams with a losing road record and 17-8 ATS when playing their third game in four nights. Houston must remain focused with no less than four teams breathing down their neck in the Western Conference standings, including Utah. I believe they'll be on top of their game tonight. I'm laying the points with the Rockets. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Bulls on Tuesday night. "This was a playoff game. We have a chance, we might play these guys in the playoffs if we keep doing what we're doing and get that seed, so this was a big statement game for us and we willed this one." That's what Carmelo Anthony had to say after New York beat Chicago 100-99 in OT on Sunday. While Carmelo feels his team willed themselves to a win, it was more of a case of Chicago making mistakes and missing shots, in my eyes. Derrick Rose can be forgiven for his "off" night. After all, it was his first game back after missing weeks with a groin injury. Rose and Luol Deng, the team's top two scorers combined to make just 12 of 42, or 28.6% of their shots. The Bulls couldn't hang onto the basketball finishing with 19 turnovers. Yet, the Bulls led the Knicks by 10 points with less than four minutes to go in the fourth quarter, and led 99-95 with one minute to go in overtime. It certainly didn't help when Rose and Deng combined to miss four late free throws, leaving the door open for NY. We are on this play, despite the fact Rose has been downgraded to doubtful because of the subsequent line adjustment. Some stated they want to see a sense of urgency and better play on the defensive end when they next meet the Knicks. That night is tonight, of course. Chicago heads into this one on a 21-7 ATS run off an upset loss as a favorite. They were favored by three in the loss on Sunday. They're 42-21 ATS off a spread loss, and 35-14-1 ATS off a SU loss in general. Despite the surge, the Knicks have covered just 4 of their last 13 road games. I expect a return to normal for the Bulls tonight, which leads to another spread loss on the road for Carmelo and company. I'm laying the points with the Bulls on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Suns on Monday night. These two teams have gone in different directions and I expect the gap to grow even wider tonight. Phoenix has won 17 of their last 25 games SU and they're now within a half game of the final spot in the Western Conference playoff standings. This game is of huge importance to the road team because beginning Wednesday, they'll play three games in four nights at Memphis, Houston, and San Antonio. A win here is a virtual "must" if they're to split the four-game trip in all likelihood. Minnesota has been a serious "fade" since losing Ricky Rubio to injury. They also expect to be without Luke Ridnour (ankle) tonight - and J.J. Barea is also less than 100% healthy. The T-Wolves are on a 27-40 ATS slide at home overall, and they haven't enjoyed the Pacific Division's style of play, sporting a 2-12 ATS mark against those teams at home. Minnesota enters this one on a 0-7 ATS slide. Phoenix has not only been winning outright, but they have been "money" as a favorite, covering six in a row. And under Gentry, in the second half of seasons, the Suns are 38-13 ATS against teams with a losing record, winning by an average score of 115-104. I'm laying the points with the Suns on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Boston Celtics on Sunday. We cashed with Boston last night in easy fashion when they blew the doors off the Pacers in Indiana. Both of these teams played last night, but Boston has been the busier team in April. However, watching the reaction of the Celtic players last night after Doc Rivers blew up at them following the loss to the Bulls tells me that there isn't likely to be a "let-down" despite the busy schedule. Boston was incredibly intense on the defensive end last night, holding the Pacers to 35% shooting, including 23% from behind the arc. Boston finished the game with 12 steals. Philly's starters were pathetic last night, making just 13 of 44 shots and I don't expect the Sixers to suddenly get back on track. Over the past two weeks, I have mentioned that the Celtics are playing like a desperate team as they look to do all they can to win the Atlantic and avoid a postseason first round matchup with Miami. So far so good. Boston enters this one with a two-game lead over the 76ers and a three-game lead over surging New York. If the Celtics need any more motivation, they can just look to the game tapes of their two meetings this season, both ending in ugly losses to the Sixers. But Philly has hit hard times winning and covering just 4 of their last 13 games. They have covered just 4 of their last 14 on the road and Doug Collins' squad is on a 1-7 ATS slide as a dog of less or less. They're also on a 0-6 ATS slide when playing in the second of back-to-back nights. Meanwhile, Boston is on a 7-0-1 ATS run at home. I'm laying the points with the Celtics on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Over between the Hawks & Bobcats on Saturday. I played the Under in Charlotte's road game at Milwaukee last night and we cashed the ticket thanks to a low-scoring 80-point second half between the two teams. I mentioned in my analysis, "...this is the Bucks' 5th game in 7 nights and I suspect they're not going to be flying up and down the floor for four quarters." We got what we thought we would. The Bucks pushed the tempo in the first half then slammed the door in the second half, leading to an easy Under. That's the thing about the Bobcats. The opposing team can control the tempo - and even change the tempo mid-stream. I expect the Hawks to push the tempo in this one and we're talking about another total that I believe has been adjusted too much. These teams have met three times this season with ATL winning all three by scores of 120-93, 111-81, and 102-96. All three games topped totals that were set in the 180s, just like tonight's. ATL can and will look to score often because they already know that's their blueprint to beating Charlotte. The Bobcats will oblige with the faster pace. Atlanta is on a 4-0 Over run and 6-1 Over in their last seven. The Hawks have been scoring a lot of points of late, sans Chicago - a fierce defensive team. ATL has averaged 101.7 ppg in their other six most recent contests. They're facing a Charlotte team that's anything but fierce, ranked 28th in both points allowed per game and FG percentage allowed. Over the last three seasons, in the second half of the year, Charlotte is 12-2 to the Over against teams making at least 36% of their treys...ATL makes 37%...5th best in the league. And when Charlotte has lost two straight by double-digits to an opponent, they're on a 10-1 Over run the next time out. The Bucks controlled the tempo in both the first and second half against Charlotte last night. I expect ATL to do the same - without slowing down over the final 24 minutes. The series is on a 6-1 Over run in Charlotte. I'm playing the Over between the Hawks & Bobcats. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Bobcats and Bucks on Friday night. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis are starting to find a chemistry, but this is the Bucks' 5th game in 7 nights and I suspect they're not going to be flying up and down the floor for four quarters. There's also the interesting matchup issue for Ellis who always seems to lose his shooting eye when facing the Bobcats. Charlotte, the league's worst team in just about every important offensive category isn't likely to find their shooting touch and they're the "sweet elixir" for teams playing a lot of games over a short period of time. Their opponents don't have to play a nasty or overly intense brand of defense to hold the Bobcats down on the offensive end. Charlotte has been involved with just four posted totals of 200 or more since January 9, going Under in three of those outings. The one contest that went Over did so by just one point and came against the Bucks. Charlotte scored just 92 points, but made 23 of 26 free throws. Milwaukee "nailed" over 53% of their shots...yet as stated above, the game went Over by a singleton. The four games saw a combined points average of just 185 per game. Take the Milwaukee tilt out of the mix and that average drops to 178.7! Charlotte is on a 34-16-2 Under run on the road against teams with a winning home record. I'm betting we're in for more of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Bobcats & Bucks on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Dallas on Wednesday night. This is a tough spot for the Memphis Grizzlies...I'm betting too tough for them to pick up their fourth straight win over the Mavericks. Memphis came from behind to beat the Warriors last night and will be playing their fourth game in five nights. The Grizzlies have won three straight over the Mavs, including their only meeting of this season, a 96-85 win on February 29. Dallas actually led at halftime, but Dirk Nowitzki only played a total of 9:39 due to an early-game injury. Nowitzki, who's been on fire at home, scored just one point in that loss. Memphis has won five of their last six games, including road wins over the Lakers & Thunder. They have played several high intensity games in a short period of time and I suspect they'll be "gassed" in this one. Add in the fact that the Mavericks' are playing with a day off between games and looking to bounce back after an embarrassing 94-75 home loss to the Clippers, and I expect Memphis to be in a real tough spot. The Grizzlies have covered just 6 of their last 20 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, Dallas is in a league-wide 27-8 ATS spot tonight. That's the spread record of teams in revenge of a double-digit loss if they're off a SU upset loss by at least 15 points as a favorite. I'm betting Dallas comes out today on a mission. I'm laying the points with the Mavericks on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Tuesday night. The 76ers certainly have poor timing. I released Miami on these pages the last time the Heat met the Sixers and we covered in a close one when Miami beat Philly 84-78 as a 4-point favorite. The Heat went into that contest on a 2-game losing streak. Now, the 76ers travel to South Beach to face an angry and embarrassed Miami team that just had their lunch handed to them in Boston...now losing three of their last five games, outright. All three of those losses came on the road and against decent opposition, losing to Boston, Indiana, and Oklahoma City. I'd also like to note that I released the Heat on these pages in their last home game, a 106-85 easy win and cover over Dallas. Miami was coming off back-to-back road losses in that one. The 76ers have had their issues against elite teams, currently on a 0-8 ATS losing streak against teams that are playing better than .600 basketball on the season. They're also on a 0-7 ATS slide against teams that average at least 99 ppg and Philly has covered just one of their last 10 against teams that make at least 46% of their shots. Miami averages nearly 101 ppg on 47.9% shooting, the most accurate offensive attack in the NBA. In fact, with Doug Collins as coach, the 76ers have had serious problems against top-shelf teams, going 3-15 ATS against teams that make at least 46% of their shots, while holding the opposition to 43% or lower. Miami is 5th in the NBA, allowing just 42.9% shooting. Miami is 21-2 SU at home this season. They're 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home off a SU loss this season, winning by an average final score of 109-85. They have already beaten Dallas, San Antonio, and Indiana in this situation, by scores of 106-85, 120-98, and 118-83. I'd argue that all three of those teams are better than Philadelphia, yet the line for tonight's game is only 1-point higher than it was for Dallas, 1 1/2 points higher than the Indiana closing line, and 2 points higher than the number Miami laid against the Spurs. Miami is on a 10-0 SU run at home against the Sixers, winning by an average margin of more than 12 ppg. Three of those wins came by at least 21 points. And finally, the Heat are on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Bad timing continues for Philly. I'm laying the points with Miami on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Over between the Warriors & Lakers on Sunday evening. Yesterday's contest against New Orleans may have been the worst performance of Kobe Bryant's career. He had several decent looks but couldn't buy a basket. Kobe missed his first 15 shots in the game, not making his first until 7 1/2 minutes were left in the 4th quarter. The future hall-of-famer made just 3 of 21 shots for the game, but did make the game-winning 3-pointer in the final seconds. Kobe and the Lakers get "just what the doctor ordered" tonight - a contest against the permissive Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are 27th in the league, allowing 100 ppg and they have allowed 102.5 ppg in their last six outings. Mark Jackson's troops have allowed opponents to "can" 44.9% of their FG attempts on the season, including 36.4% from behind the arc. At the same time, his team is 7th in the league in FG percentage and 2nd in the NBA in 3-point accuracy. This series saw 20 straight totals posted above 200 until their last two meetings. The average posted total during the 20 games was 220! The last two meetings (both in 2012) have seen totals of 197 & 185 1/2. Both games finished Over the total. Tonight we have another reasonable total for those who're looking to play the Over. The Warriors are on a 4-0 Over run when playing on one day of rest. Sure, they don't have Steph Curry, but Klay Thompson has been "lighting it up." The Lakers are on a 15-4 Over run against Western Conference teams, including a 6-0 Over run against division opponents. They're on a 24-7 Over run against teams with a losing record, including 7-1 to the Over at home against teams with a losing road record. More of the same tonight. I'm playing the Over between the Warriors & Lakers. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Thursday night. The Heat have not played well in their last two games, losing both by double-digits. But they haven't played since Monday and I expect an all-out effort in this one. Miami's first meeting with the team that defeated them in last year's Finals was certainly one-sided. The Heat whipped Dallas 105-94 on Christmas Day. The game was more of a mismatch than the final score would indicate. Miami led 97-65 through three quarters before putting it into cruise control over the final 12 minutes. Dallas is a better team now than they were to start the season, but they're in the wrong place at the wrong time with the Heat off the bad outings. Miami expects to have LeBron on the floor tonight. He's listed as probable (dislocated finger). "The only recovery for it, the doctors told me, was rest," James said. "And I think we all know I'm having none of that." James and Wade were thoroughly embarrassed the last time they hosted the Mavs, losing 105-95 in the final game of the championship series last June. While they rocked the Mavs in Dallas to start the season, this one will have special meaning since it will be in front of the home fans. More importantly, the matchups on the blocks favor the Heat. Miami is in a terrific league-wide spot tonight. NBA home favorites are on a 55-23 ATS run off a double-digit road loss, if they're playing between .600 & .750 basketball on the season and are facing a team with a winning record. As a team, Miami is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home off a SU loss, winning by an average score of 109.5-86! Two of those wins came by scores of 118-83 over Indiana and 120-98 over San Antonio. I expect another big win and cover tonight. I'm laying the points with Miami on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Clippers on Wednesday night. LAC is back on track winning each of their last two games, while playing an intense and stingy brand of basketball on the defensive end. Tonight, the Clippers are hosting the surprising Phoenix Suns. LAC was no match for the Suns when Phoenix was one of the dominant teams in the Western Conference. Having said that, it should be noted that Phoenix has won each of this year's two meetings. Both were played this month and both were close. LAC did themselves no favors by not attacking the basket in the two losses. They shot just 12 free throws (made just 5) in the March 15 loss, and attempted just 9 free throws in the March 2nd loss. You can bet LAC will be looking to create opportunities in the paint in this one. Phoenix lost a tough one at home last night to the Spurs and will be playing on the road in the second of back-to-back nights, following a home game, for just the second time this season. Phoenix starters saw over 170 minutes of action combined last night and Steve Nash is a little worse for wear, nursing some back pain. He's expected to play tonight, but not at 100% and he's off last night's tilt against the San Antone backcourt. LAC has held their last 6 "guests" to an average of 84.7 ppg. It was just a matter of time before they got back on track. And now that they are, I expect them to remain so for at least one more night. I'm laying the points with the Clippers on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Lakers on Tuesday night. Listen to sports talk radio and you'll hear that there's discord and controversy inside the Laker organization. There were about 18-thousand fans at Staples who disagreed with coach Mike Brown's benching of Kobe Bryant for a key stretch of the fourth quarter on Sunday night. Instead of whining, Kobe said all the right things and I believe he'll take his frustrations out on Golden State tonight. The acquisition of Ramon Sessions was a huge deal for L.A. and once this group gets used to each other, I believe they'll be a contender for the Western Conference championship. The Lakers were off-kilter on Sunday. Pau Gasol had plenty of open looks, but couldn't buy a basket. But after a day off to stew about it, I believe Kobe and company will leave Golden State feeling like a team in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Warriors aren't much on the defensive end and they're "just what the doctor ordered" for the Lakers. Last time these teams met this season, L.A. won 97-90, but fell short of a 10 1/2 point spread. Kobe scored 39 points, but the Lakers got nothing from the point, which was then manned by Derek Fisher. I suspect Kobe will go unmatched again, but this time, L.A. should get much more from the point-guard position. Andrew Bynum wasn't completely healthy yet either in the meeting, scoring 9 points and grabbing 16 rebounds. There's nothing wrong with the Laker center this time. I'm betting this one gets ugly and stays that way in favor of the road team. I'm laying the points with the Lakers on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Celtics & Bobcats on Monday night. The last two times these teams have met, we have seen posted totals of 176 1/2 and 178. I see no solid reason why tonight's total was posted 184. The teams have gone Under tonight's total in each of their last three head-to-head meetings, averaging about 175 ppg. We also must make note of the way Boston plays on the road in the second of back-to-back nights. Celtic games are on a 6-1 Under run in this situation...and they and their opponents are averaging a combined 174.8 ppg in the nine times they have played in this spot this season, overall (6-2-1 Under). Boston does not expect to have Ray Allen tonight, which hurts their offensive numbers more often than not. The reason the Celtics are in the mix in the Atlantic Division is due to their stingy brand of defense. Boston ranks 3rd in the league in points allowed per game, 2nd in FG percentage allowed, and they own the NBA's best 3-point defense. They'll face a Bobcats' squad that's last in the league in scoring, FG percentage, and 3-point accuracy. The "C's" (with Rivers as coach) are 60-28 to the Under on the road against teams that average no more than 24 FTA per game. They're 19-6-1 Under when favored by 5 to 10 1/2 points, including 4-0-1 Under in this price range away from home. And if you're wondering about wear and tear on the starters, Boston is actually 6-2 to the Under the night after their starters played at least 160 minutes combined. I expect a low scoring game tonight and I'm playing Boston & Charlotte to finish Under the posted total. Thanks & GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Under between the Jazz & Kings on Thursday evening. We've seen these two teams playing to the Over in their respective games quite a bit lately, leading to an inflated number tonight. Utah is on a 6-2 Over run, however, things have begun to settle down of late, with Jazz games averaging 193.3 total ppg in their last three outings. Sacto has been an Over machine of late, topping the oddsmaker's posted total in eight of their last nine games. But it should be noted that only one of their last eight games has seen a posted total above 205.5, and five of their last eight totals have been below 198. The Jazz and Kings have faced each other eight times since January 2010. Not a single game had a total set above 201.5 and the eight games finished with a combined average point total of 195.75 ppg. The last four times these teams have hooked up, the total of points scored at the end of regulation were 199, 189, 203, and 190. Yes, there have been a couple of lineup changes and a different style of approach. But not enough to warrant the big jump in the posted number, as far as I'm concerned. This series is on a 7-3 Under run. Utah has had their way against teams that average at least 83 shots per game, going Under 24 of the last 37 times. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 29-16 to the Under when the total is posted 200 or more. I'm betting there has been an over-adjustment. I'm playing the Under between the Jazz & Kings on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Orlando on Wednesday night. The Magic have certainly put up more than their share of clunkers this season, including last time out, yet they own the NBA's 5th best W/L record. And while an NBA team never has an excuse to score less than 60 points in a game, it should be noted that the Magic just played an incredibly tough stretch of opponents. Orlando played seven games from March 8th through the 19th. During the span, they had one "gimmie" against the Nets. The other six games included two against Chicago, two against Miami, and single games against San Antonio and Indiana. That's about as tough as it gets. Orlando looked worn out during the second half against Miami, then followed it up with a 59 point "performance" in a 26-point loss to Chicago two nights ago. But they did get yesterday off and the team addressed the problems. It wasn't the first time Orlando scored in the 50s this season, posting 56 in a 31-point loss to Boston in January. The Magic bounced back and crushed the Pacers 102-83 at Indiana the very next night. I expect another big win tonight. The Magic and Dwight Howard have owned the Suns of late. And this time it's Phoenix who's in off a game against Miami. The Suns were on the short end of a 17-0 Miami run in the 4th period last night and looked ragged themselves. I'm betting Orlando will step on the gas early in this one and will not let up until the final gun. The Suns are playing their 9th game in 14 days and they have covered just 18 of their last 48 when playing at least 8 games in that time span. Orlando is on a 14-3 ATS run (all with Van Gundy) off a SU loss by at least 20 points. They held those 17 opponents to an average of just 89.4 ppg. Orlando is on a 6-1 ATS run against the Suns, the same spread mark as their last seven games as a home favorite, and they're on a 4-0 ATS run at home against teams with a losing record. Bounce back time. I'm laying the points with the Magic. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm backing the Lakers on Tuesday night. We're catching Los Angeles off a bad loss suffered at home to Utah last time out. The Lakers, fresh off dealing away popular guard Derek Fisher had a rough time taking care of the basketball turning it over 24 times leading to the 4-point loss. Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, and Pau Gasol turned the ball over a combined 17 times and Kobe had his worst shooting night in eight years. But the main reason for the off night was the fact that L.A.'s remaining players had to get used to a couple new editions. I believe L.A. made a serious upgrade by acquiring Ramon Sessions, who by the way had 6 assists and no turnovers in 22 minutes of action. Kobe may have expressed his disappointment in losing his friend and long-time teammate Derek Fisher, but the Lakers are a better team for it. In fact, I believe they're now one of three teams to beat for the Western Conference title. Los Angeles will be a hungry and angry team after their weak performance last time out and they're taking on a banged-up and short-handed Houston team tonight. The Rockets don't expect to have Kevin Martin (shoulder) on the floor tonight and Kyle Lowry is still suffering from an illness. Not only does this mean they're without their top two scorers, but with the buyout of Fisher, (who didn't want to report to Houston), the Rockets are forced to give big minutes to Goran Dragic at the point. I truly believe this is going to be a tough night for the home team. And let's not forget Kobe has scored an average of more than 30 ppg in his last four against Houston and the Lakers are on a 10-2 SU run in the series. Los Angeles is on a 6-2 ATS run off a spread loss. Houston checks in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall and 1-6 ATS off a SU loss. I'm backing the Lakers on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm backing the Celtics on Monday night. Boston certainly didn't look like a playoff contender in their last two games, losing at Denver and Sacramento. They were smacked around on the glass in both games, allowing Denver 20 second-chance points. But instead of hanging their heads as they head east for the final three games of a lengthy road trip, Doc Rivers and his players are talking about what they need to do to catch Philadelphia in the Atlantic. One recurring theme with the players has been "heart," or whether this team has it. All players interviewed after their most recent loss spoke about work on the glass and that they need to start games with more intensity. I believe it's something they'll focus on in this one - and they're facing a mediocre rebounding team in the Atlanta Hawks. A couple of things that remain consistent for Boston is their shooting and defensive play. Boston is one of the better shooting teams in the league. At the other end, the Celtics are 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed; 4th in FG percentage allowed; and 1st in 3-point defense. Management left the Celtic roster intact over the last week, while Atlanta is a walking MASH unit right now. Checkout last night's starting lineup in the box-score. This marks the first meeting of the season between the Celtics and Hawks with Boston trailing Atlanta by 2 1/2 games for 6th place in the Eastern Conference standings. I expect a bust-out night for Boston in this one. They completely shut down both Joe Johnson and Josh Smith in last year's meetings and Boston's lineup has many of the same parts as last year's version. Johnson made just 6 of 30 shots in two games against the Celtics last season, while Smith played in all three meetings, making just 3 of 21 attempts. Boston is on a 71% ATS run on one day of rest, while the Hawks have covered just 4 of 14 as a home favorite of less than 5 points. They're 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the Atlantic Divisions. I'm backing Boston on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Heat on Friday night. Miami heads into tonight's tilt on a 2-game losing streak. It's the second time this season they have lost at least 2 straight games. Miami responded with a 108-78 win and cover over New Jersey off their last losing skid, and beat San Antonio 120-98 following a 3-game skid earlier this season. They have had little trouble with the Sixers in this season's two matchups, winning both, including a 99-79 win at tonight's venue. The Heat whipped Philly 113-92 in this season's first matchup in Miami. They made 84 of 158, or 53.2% of their FG attempts in the two games combined, including 15 of 29 from behind the arc. The domination didn't end there. Miami has out-rebounded the Sixers 99-69 with 43 assists and just 19 turnovers. The first win came without Dwyane Wade and the second, the 20-point win in Philly should have been by a wider margin if not for an 11 of 20 night from the FT line. Philly sits atop the Atlantic, 1 1/2 games ahead of Boston. But their struggles against "good" teams are beginning to add up. Philadelphia is on a 1-10 SU/ATS slide against teams who currently own .500 or better W/L records. They're on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams that are playing better than .600 basketball. And we should note that they have covered just 3 of 16 under Doug Collins when facing a team that makes at least 46% of their shots, provided they hold their opponents to 43% or less. Miami, the NBA's top FG shooting team, fits the bill. No revenge tonight. I'm backing Miami minus the points. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Over between the Warriors & Clippers on Sunday night. We played the Over and cashed the ticket when Golden State hosted Dallas last night. My analysis in this one has some similarities. Like last night's contest, we are looking at a total that is much lower than most of the recent meetings between these two teams. Last time out, the books posted a 198 between these teams and the game finished Over the total. Before that contest, the books had posted a total of 209 or higher in 12 straight Clippers/Warriors tilts. Here we go again with a total well below the norm. I am aware that Steph Curry is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. But man, when is Curry not listed as questionable?! And the Warriors had no trouble scoring 111 points last night against the defensively sound Mavericks even though Curry played only 16 minutes. Golden State is used to playing without the Davidson alum - and they have enough scoring ability to step up and pick up the slack. After all, the Warriors are one of the best offensive teams in the league. The Clippers are strong on the offensive end also, but they're "middle of the road" on the defensive end...yet better than the Warriors. I expect both teams to play well on their respective offensive ends of the floor. Golden State checks in on a 5-0 Over run against fellow Western Conference opponents, while the Clippers are on a 4-0 Over run when playing with one day off between games...the case tonight. I'm playing the Over between the Warriors & Clippers on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Over between the Mavericks & Warriors on Saturday night. What a difference a season makes! Dallas / Golden State games have seen posted totals of more than 200 points in 24 straight meetings, dating back to November 2006. Many of those totals have been higher than 210 and one was even as high as 234 1/2. Tonight's total, in the low 190s seems quite out of place. Yes, Dallas is relying more on defense than in recent years and yes Golden State has taken a bit of a different approach with Mark Jackson as coach. But the Mavs are playing their 3rd game in as many nights and their 5th game in 6 nights. One of the first things to go when a team gets weary is their defensive game. Golden State, meanwhile, hasn't played since Wednesday. As a rested team, I expect their play on the offensive end to be sharp. Golden State is the NBA's 8th best shooting team, including 4th best from behind the arc. But we're still talking about a Warriors' squad that allows 100.1 ppg on 44.6% shooting, including 36.7% from area code 3. I believe we're going to see a game that tops the posted total without much trouble. Dallas is on an 18-8 Over run against teams with a losing record, while the Warriors are on a 4-0 Over run against fellow Western Conference teams. I'm playing the Over between the Mavs & Warriors on Saturday night. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with Boston on Friday night. The "3 Amigos" suffered their worst loss as members of the Boston Celtics when Philly blew them off the court, 103-71 two nights ago. Boston shouldn't be faulted too much. After all, they were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and they were off back-to-back overtime contests. They were also on a 5-game win streak. But now they have had a day off between games and I believe we're about to see some serious "Celtic Pride." We are also getting decent line value in this one. The last 5 times Boston hosted Portland they laid no less than 7 points and as many as 10 1/2 points. They're on a 10-3 ATS run against the Blazers and have won 4 straight meetings. They'll welcome a Portland edition that hasn't found much success away from home. The Blazers are on a 2-10 ATS slide on the road against teams that have won more than 60% of their home games. They're also 3-14 ATS in their last 17 when getting points, including a 0-5 skid as a dog of less than 5 points. Look for the Celtics to bounce back big time on Friday. Boston is my 10* Signature Knockout.

I'm playing the Under between the Rockets & Celtics on Tuesday night. I think it's safe to say Rajon Rondo won't be traded anytime soon after his historic afternoon against the Knicks on Sunday. It's also pretty safe to say that Rondo and Paul Pierce are not likely to put up the same kind of numbers in this one. At the same time, Boston is one of the stingiest teams in the league on the defensive end. The Celtics pride themselves on their defensive work, ranking 3rd, 3rd, and 1st in ppg allowed, FG percentage allowed, and 3-point defense, respectively. Meanwhile, they're one of the lowest scoring teams averaging just 90.9 ppg. Houston contests averaged just 183.2 total ppg over a five game stretch before an "outburst" of points in their last two games. But their last two opponents were the Clippers and Nuggets, teams that attempt to outscore the opposition...especially Denver, who ranks #1 in the league in ppg, but 28th in ppg allowed. Boston will look to make this a defensive battle and I believe they'll succeed - and we're getting value thanks to Houston's last two contests. Houston is 20-8 to the Under when getting points. And they're on a 4-0, 100% Under run on the road. Meanwhile, Boston is 30-13-2 to the Under as chalk and they're on an 8-2 Under run against teams with a winning record. I'm playing the Under between the Rockets & Celtics on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm playing the Over between the Kings & Lakers on Friday night. Sacramento has been involved in quite a few high scoring affairs of late. They have allowed a whopping 107.1 ppg in their last eight games, while scoring 103.3 ppg themselves. This series has been an "Over" play with the teams on an 8-2 Over run in their last 10 meetings in Los Angeles. In fact, they're 22-7 to the Over the last 29 times they have met, overall. One of the problems for the Kings in this one will be the fact that they just don't have the "bigs" on the defensive end to handle Los Angeles' inside. And when they drop someone in the paint to help out, L.A. can make the Kings pay from the outside. Sacto has been an Over play against teams with a winning record, going Over the posted total in 20 of the last 26 times in this spot. And while L.A. should have little trouble on the offensive end, Sacramento has its own advantages when they have the possession of the "rock" and they have been on display quite a bit over the last eight games. One final note: During the second half of the season (last two years) Sacramento games have averaged a combined 208.5 ppg the last 50 contests. I'm playing the Over between the Kings & Lakers on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

I'm laying the points with the Kings on Tuesday night. Nice spot for the home team tonight. Then again, when Utah is the visiting team, it's generally a nice spot for whomever is the home team. Utah has won just 3 of its 14 road games this season and they're not a team that has performed too well with extra rest. The Jazz are on a 2-9 ATS slide when playing with 3 or more days off between games. Utah will face a Sacramento team in a pretty good mood. The Kings struggled on their 6-game road trip, but did finish up strong with a win over Washington. While it may not show in their overall record, Keith Smart has made a positive difference, getting the best out of DeMarcus Cousins, both physically and emotionally. And despite struggling outright, they have covered 11 of their last 14 games, overall. The reason for the good mood is the fact that they're at home for the first time in 17 days and the team and fans now know they're going to be staying put - in Sacramento following this season with a tentative deal in place. No doubt, the joint will be jumping. Most importantly, I believe their key players are playing better together than Utah's. And it should be noted that the Jazz have been a bit lazy on the defensive side of the floor lately, allowing their last three opponents to connect on 31 of 62 treys. Sacto is a decent long-distance team, ranking 11th in 3-point accuracy. The Jazz are on a 0-4 ATS slide as a dog of less than 5 points, while the Kings are on a 7-2 ATS run in this series. I'm backing the Kings on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.