I'm backing the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. Marc Gasol injured his knee in a game against the Spurs a couple of nights ago and he's out indefinitely. But I believe this is one of those spots where a team with an injured key player can and will pick up the slack at least for the first full game without him. Kosta Koufos will play in Gasol's place tonight. While he's not quite as talented as Marc Gasol, he's no chopped-liver, either. Koufos started in the pivot for the Denver Nuggets last season. Memphis is also getting great play from Zach Randolph who has recorded six straight double-doubles. Houston expects to be without James Harden (foot) for the second straight game. While the Rockets did beat Minnesota last time out, they also committed 25 turnovers, but were able to overcome the sloppy performance thanks in part to Aaron Brooks, who scored 26 points. But the Memphis backcourt should be able to hold Brooks in check tonight - a decent matchup advantage for the home team. Memphis has been "money," covering five straight at home against the Rockets. They're also a thorn in a good team's side, currently on a 9-1 ATS run against teams that make at least 46% of their shots and hold their opponents to 43% shooting or less. Meanwhile, the Rockets are on a 3-13 ATS slide in divisional road games. The 5-0 ATS run, combines with the final two situations for a 27-4 ATS mark. I'm backing the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pacers on Friday night. I've been involved in Pacers games each of the last two times they have taken the floor, winning both. I went against the Pacers when they faced Chicago and cashed an easy one then cashed a fortunate one with the Pacers in their OT win and cover over New York last time out. This one will get the Pacers attention. While the faces may have changed in Boston the jerseys are still the same. Boston has slammed Indiana four straight times, although this is the first meeting of the post KG & Paul Pierce-era. Boston held Indiana to 78.8 ppg in those games and Indiana will want to jump out early and extend the lead in this one after starting slowly each of the last two games, while also taking care of business against the Celtics. Boston is near the bottom of the league in scoring and not one of the better shooting teams in the NBA either. They'll face a Pacer squad that's tops in the league in points allowed and FG percentage allowed. And Indiana enters on a 10-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record. A motivated Pacer squad, nasty on the defensive end and looking for a solid effort after a couple of shaky games should have little trouble against the rebuilding Celtics. I'm laying the points with Indiana on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pacers on Wednesday night. New York played in Detroit last night and while we don't play against teams solely because they're in the second of back-to-back nights, we will in this one. The Knicks are without Tyson Chandler and should have an extremely tough time with Indiana's interior presence, both on the glass and scoring on the offensive and defensive ends. Then there's the case of shooting...or lack thereof. The Knicks had a horrible night from the perimeter last night and even if Carmelo Anthony "goes off," the rest of the perimeter shooters are unreliable, especially against a quality team like the Pacers. The Knicks are 24th in shooting and 23rd in scoring and they're second to last in the league, averaging just 38.8 rpg, while allowing over 43 rpg. Indiana heads into this one on a 9-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record, while the Knicks are on a 0-6 ATS slide at home. The favorite in this series enters on a 5-0 ATS run for 11-0 combined spots with those final two situations. More of the same. I'm laying the points with the Pacers, my Wednesday Night KNOCKOUT. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the NY Knicks on Tuesday night. I went against the Knicks on Saturday and we cashed an easy winner with the Atlanta Hawks. Knicks' coach Mike Woodson was not a happy man following the loss. In fact, he even said, "I'm not here to teach effort" after Monday's practice. Woodson said, "Everybody can give effort. Every night that you step out on the floor, practice floor, you've got to be able to give effort and I've got to see that. And right now, I'm not seeing it." Carmelo Anthony echoed Woodson's statements. I suspect New York will give max effort on the road tonight where they're actually 2-1 SU this season. I also believe NY is getting "just what the doctor ordered" in this one. The Pistons return home following a 4-game road trip and they aren't playing well on either end of the floor. Detroit is allowing nearly 104 ppg. They rank 30th in FG percentage allowed and 29th against the trey. And they roll into this one covering just one of their last six games. The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games against teams playing .250 to .400 basketball, outscoring those teams by an average of 102-92. They also play a hounding type of defense, which hurts Detroit. The Pistons are on a 4-15 ATS slide against teams that force at least 16 turnovers per game. Finally, the Knicks are on a 7-0 SU/ATS run against Detroit. I'm taking the points with the Knicks, my DogPound release on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. This will be the first meeting since the Grizzlies knocked the Clippers out of the playoffs last May. While LAC will be looking to exact some revenge, the line is simply too high as far as I'm concerned. Memphis posted a 24-17 SU mark on the road last season and they enter tonight's contest off back-to-back road wins over the Lakers & Kings. And while the Grizzlies played last night in Sacto, they are on a smoking 37-17 ATS run when playing in the second of back-to-back nights. Marc Gasol has been tremendous the last two nights and the Gasol / Zach Randolph combo is going to be an awfully tough matchup (again) for the Clippers. Besides the 37-17 ATS run already mentioned, the Grizzlies are 7-0-1 in their last eight against the Pacific Division and they're on a 5-0 ATS run against the Clippers including four straight outright wins. I believe the number is too high and I'm grabbing the points with Memphis, my Monday Night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night. It looks like Derrick Rose will likely sit this one out, listed as doubtful. Rose missed last night's game, also, and the team reacted well to his absence. Carlos Boozer commented that the team relies on each other much more when Rose is sidelined and they obviously weren't bothered too much when he sat the bench healing from injury all of last season. Look for crisper passing, more cuts, and a better brand of team basketball tonight than we saw down the stretch when the Bulls lost 97-80 to the Pacers earlier this season. The game was actually anyone's to win until a huge 4th quarter that saw Indiana out-score the Bulls by 16 points. Indiana enters on a 3-14 ATS slide following back-to-back wins by 15 points or more. And under Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls are 14-4 ATS when the line is in the +3/-3 range. I'm backing the Bulls (with or without Rose) as they look to gain a measure of revenge on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with OKC on Thursday night. The Thunder lost to the Clippers last night in Los Angeles. Oklahoma City lost the services of Serge Ibaka in the second quarter when he was ejected from the contest. That's a big deal because the Thunder don't have a lot of scoring options after Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, nor do they own a lot of options inside. They'll get Ibaka back tonight and they're off a SU loss...a good time to back OKC after wrapping up last year's regular season on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss. They won their only game following a loss this season, but failed to cover the spread. However, they were laying 12 1/2 points and won by 7. Tonight, they're getting a couple of baskets. Golden State is 3-0 at home this season, but the competition is much tougher tonight after handling visits from Detroit, Sacramento, and the Lakers. And while the Warriors defensive numbers have been strong, the fact is, the individual matchups against OKC are not favorable. OKC has beaten the Warriors in six of the last seven meetings SU & ATS, including 3-1 SU/ATS in games played at Golden State. The Thunder are also on a 4-0 ATS run (going back to last season) when playing in the second of back-to-back nights. I'm grabbing the points with the Thunder on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Nuggets on Monday night. Utah may head into this one thinking it's a winnable spot, but the talent gap between these two teams is wide and the advantages lie with the Nuggets. Denver has a few different parts from last year's team, but I believe it's just a matter of time before they begin to jell under new HC Brian Shaw. Tonight could be "just what the doctor ordered" to jumpstart things. Utah has yet to win a game and return home off a 4 game - 5 night road trip. They'll enter tonight's contest 0-7 SU & 1-5-1 ATS and their last five losses haven't been close. All five came by double digits with an average margin of 17 ppg. The Jazz obviously struggle at both ends of the floor allowing 100.7 ppg, while ranking 30th in ppg, FG percentage, and 3-point percentage on the offensive end. Denver fits a 23-2 ATS league-wide situation playing on road teams with a line range including tonight's, if the road team averages between 98 & 102 ppg, the home team allows 98 to 102 ppg, and our play-on team allowed at least 100 points in two straight games. Denver is also on a 4-0 ATS run in this series. Utah's 1-5-1 ATS slide combines with the two spots just mentioned for 32-3 situations. I'm laying the points with the Nuggets on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. Two teams of similar make-up in this one with both teams built on the defensive end first. Indiana heads into this one 7-0 and the lone undefeated team in the NBA. But I like the way Memphis looked on Saturday night, especially the contributions on the offensive end in a 108-90 victory over Golden State. The Grizzlies are now connecting on over 47% of their FGA, which ranks 4th in the league. The weaponry or matchups are there on both ends of the floor to challenge the undefeated Pacers in a game that I believe will go right to the wire before a SU winner is decided. The last three meetings between these teams has seen an average line of 3 and this one opened a couple of baskets higher thanks to Indy's big start. Memphis has enjoyed nice results against defensively minded teams, going 11-2 ATS against teams that hold the opposition to 43% shooting or less. They're also on a 21-8 ATS run against the better teams in the league, those outscoring their opponents by at least 9 ppg. And finally, the Grizzlies are on an 8-2 ATS run in the series. I'm taking the points with Memphis on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the NY Knicks on Friday night. Early season opportunity for the Knicks to avenge an embarrassing loss and I believe they'll get it done. We jumped on Washington a couple of nights ago in the same type of situation against the 76ers and won easily. We also have a Knicks team that will be without Tyson Chandler who was injured in the loss to the Bobcats. I expect the rest of the team to pick up the slack, at least for this particular game, especially Kenyon Martin who stated he's looking forward to the challenge. "They brought me back for a reason," Martin told ESPN New York. "I'm good. I'm ready." Charlotte is off the upset win over Toronto last time out and they have covered just 4 of their last 17 off a win as an underdog. And early season (November) home underdogs are 5-28 ATS if they're off a home win by no more than 3 points. I'm laying the points with the Knicks on Friday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. The Pacers are off to a 4-0 SU start and they're in everyone's top-5 in power ratings and deservedly so. Last night the Pacers had a horrible second quarter in Detroit, but righted the ship and went on to a 99-91 win at the Palace. Indiana shot better than 60% from the floor over the final two quarters led by an outstanding effort from Paul George who scored 31 points on 12-of-18 shooting, including 4-of-8 from behind the arc. Roy Hibbert was strong also with 10 rebounds and 7 blocks. But George and Lance Stephenson both played a lot of minutes and while the Pacers found some spread success in the second of back-to-back nights last season, I don't believe they're going to tonight. Indiana is a contender in the Eastern Conference, no doubt about it. Having said that, the Pacers four wins have come against teams with the 15th, 17th, 19th, and 28th ranked over/under win projections (LVH numbers). Tonight, they're stepping up in class...big time. Yes, Chicago has been rusty with all hands back on deck for the first time since before last season. But they have had a couple of days off and look to this game with bigger importance than most games at this point of the season. I also expect Derrick Rose to drive to the basket more than he has the first three games. Rose has been to the FT line just 10 times in three outings. It was a point of discussion on Tuesday which means it'll be a primary focus for Rose to drive the paint on Wednesday as the Bulls attempt to even their SU record at 2-2. Indiana enters on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams with a losing record and I expect the trend to continue. I'm grabbing the points with Chicago on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Houston Rockets on Tuesday night. Houston got thumped by "Lob City" last night, losing 137-118. They will be playing their second game in as many nights and their fourth in five. While knee-jerk reaction will be to play against the Rockets, the situation has been factored into the number in my opinion. Portland owns a couple of nice wins so far this season, scoring 115 points and 113 points, respectively, in wins over San Antonio and Denver. But while LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are off to strong starts I don't believe the team is strong enough on the defensive end to handle the Rockets. Speaking of the defensive end, Houston had zero defensive intensity in last night's loss at LAC. Coach Kevin McHale was not happy after the game, mentioning his team never brought it on the defensive end of the floor. I expect intensity to return to the Rockets on Tuesday after holding their first three opponents to 37%, 38%, and 42% shooting. The Trail Blazers have covered just 4 of their last 17 against Western Conf opposition going back to last season and they're 1-8 ATS at home. Meanwhile, Houston is 6-1-1 ATS the last eight times against the Blazers and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to Portland. I'm backing the Houston Rockets on Tuesday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the point with Oklahoma City on Sunday's NBA card. The Thunder may be without Russell Westbrook (knee) right now but OKC should have no trouble at all with the Phoenix Suns, projected by sports books to be the worst team in the NBA (over/under win total: 19). The Suns are off to surprising 2-0 start, but I believe this is a case of "fools gold." Phoenix was able to knock-off Portland, thanks to a tremendous game from Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe and they defeated Utah by three points at home on Friday. Both the Blazers & Jazz are also expected to finish below .500 this season, especially the Jazz who're only projected to win six more games than the Suns. Dragic, by the way, is banged-up, considered a game time decision with a head injury. Even if Dragic goes, he's less than 100% healthy. Tonight marks OKC's home opener after starting with two road games (1-1). The Thunder were clocked last time out, losing 100-81 to Minnesota. They made less than 35% of their FGA and shot less than 23% from the 3 point line. They also finished with 21 turnovers and just 16 assists. I expect a spirited effort and a serious bounce back in this one. OKC enters on a 5-1, 83% winning run ATS following a loss by more than 10 points. Phoenix is on a 2-8 ATS road slide and they're 1-5-1 ATS off a SU win. Finally, the favorite is on a 6-0 ATS run in this series (24-4 combined situations). I'm laying the points with the Thunder, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pelicans on Saturday night. New Orleans has big plans for the 2013-14 season and they didn't include a 20 point loss to the Orlando Magic which was the case last time out. The loss to Orlando followed a 95-90 home loss to Indiana in their season opener on Wednesday. Tonight, the Pelicans get "just what the doctor ordered" when the Charlotte Bobcats rolls into town. The Bobcats defeated Cleveland last night and now must suit-up again with no rest, covering just 20 of their last 61 in this situation. Anthony Davis is off to a fine start for the team from the "Big Easy" and it's only a matter of time before Tyreke Evans finds his comfort zone in his new "digs." I suspect the first big game for the former Sacramento King will be tonight against a team that doesn't match New Orleans' talent. The Pelicans have been strong in bounce back situations, heading into this season on a 24-6 ATS run following a loss by more than 10 points. They're also on an 8-1 ATS run at home against the Bobcats. Those last two spots combine for a 32-7 ATS mark. New Orleans gets their first win of the season tonight. I'm laying the points with the Pelicans on Saturday, my NBA Crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Kings on Wednesday night. As good as the Nuggets were a season ago, they still finished with a sub-.500 record away from home (19-22 SU). Denver forced NBA Coach of the Year George Karl into resigning after a disappointing postseason and they traded away Andre Iguodala who had been brought in to Denver to provide some defense. There will be a little transition time as the team gets used to a few new faces and a new coach (Brian Shaw). Making matters a little tougher will be the absence of Danilo Gallinari (knee). Ty Lawson is doubtful tonight nursing a groin injury and while Kenneth Faried is expected to play, he is dealing with a sore hamstring and he's not 100% healthy. Meanwhile, there's new energy and new excitement in Sacramento. The Maloof's and their seemingly annual threat of moving the team are gone and along with a new owner and new brass, the Kings have hired a new coach in Mike Malone. Player reaction has been positive to this point and it's being said that even DeMarcus Cousins is buying into Malone's style. Gone is Tyreke Evans, but top assist man Greivis Vasquez will now lead the backcourt. I expect a supreme effort from a Sacto team with new-found enthusiasm and a few personnel changes and you know the joint will be jumping. Denver closed last season on a 0-6 ATS slide and the chalk in this series is on a 6-2-1 ATS run. More of the same. I'm laying the points with the Kings on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday night. It's opening night yet we already have a big statement game for the Bulls. Derrick Rose is finally back, but this is also about the healthy return of Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and Kirk Hinrich. Noah wasn't 100% healthy in last spring's postseason and Deng and Hinrich were also bothered by injuries. With everyone back to health I do believe this is the best overall team in the NBA. Jimmy Butler is outstanding on the defensive end and they have shored-up a couple of spots on the floor where shooting sometimes took a hit. But the Bulls are virtually the same team we saw last season - but healthy. Rose connected on 44.4% of his 3-point attempts in preseason play while averaging over 20 ppg. The Bulls match-up well with Miami and the Heat may not consider this as important as the Bulls will. Teams celebrating their NBA championship on opening night are just 1-6 ATS the last seven seasons. In fact, over the last decade, defending champions have been a solid play-against through the first two weeks of the new season. I expect more of the same tonight. I'm grabbing the points with the Bulls on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Spurs & Heat on Thursday night. I had the Under in Game 6 and we could have and maybe should have cashed the ticket. But the game went into OT and we did not. While I expected defensive intensity on high for Game 6, I expect an even fiercer defensive performance in Game 7. These teams know each other inside and out at this point and there will likely be no surprises. The NBA Finals are usually defensive battles. In fact, the Under is on a 25-9 run in NBA Finals' games with the total ranging from 180 to 189 1/2. And these teams are on a 12-4 run to the Under the last 16 times they have met. The Spurs also enter on a 16-5-1 Under run in their last 22 road games. I'm playing the Under on Thursday. Thanks for being with me all season in the NBA and let's continue to dominate on the bases! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Spurs & Heat on Tuesday night. By now everyone has heard about Miami's 12-0 ATS run off a SU loss. The Heat have possessed the unique ability to "turn up the heat" off a poor performance. Most of their improvements off a loss have come on the defensive end where they have held the opposition to less than 85 ppg following their last 11 losses. After stringing together some higher scoring games, I look for both teams to clamp down on the defensive end on Tuesday. The Spurs are on a 13-3 Under run on the road against teams with a winning home record, while the Heat have gone Under the total in four straight home games. And finally, the teams are on a 12-3 Under run when they meet in Miami. I'm playing the Under between the Spurs & Heat on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Heat & Spurs on Sunday night. Even thought the last two games have gone over the posted total, the series has played like an Under series. Game 3 went over by a bucket thanks to Gary Neal's & Danny Green's ridiculous and record-setting performance, combining for 51 points and 13-of-19 shooting from behind the arc. Game 4 went over the total thanks mostly to a 59 point third quarter out-burst by the teams. But in this all-important Game 5 matchup, I expect to see defensive intensity on high. There's also Tony Parker's hamstring issue. Parker said he would take off 10 games if this happened in the regular season. His ability to slash and drive was badly "hamstrung" in the second half of Game 4. The Under has gone 22-7 the last 29 times these teams have met. The Spurs are on a 12-3 Under run on two days rest, while the Heat are 10-1 to the Under on two days rest. I'm betting on more of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Heat & Spurs on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Miami Heat on Thursday, my NBA Finals Game of the Year. Miami is on an 11-0 winning run off a SU loss and they get much tougher on the defensive end. The Heat have allowed over 95 ppg off of their last 6 wins. But they have clamped down, allowing just 83 ppg off of their last 10 SU losses. I expect an all-out effort from the Heat and they should benefit from the Tony Parker hamstring problem. However, I must note that I would have released this play even if Parker was 100% healthy. Look for a major effort from LeBron as it's now time for the superstar to put the team on his shoulders. They'll attack the rim on the offensive end and set-up their pick-and-rolls lower and lower. Defensively, look for Chris Anderson to front Duncan like he did in Game 2, but did not do in Game 3. I'm backing Miami on Thursday night, my Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Heat & Spurs on Tuesday night. This marks the third time I will side with the Under in the Finals and we look to make it 3-0 with Finals totals and 4-0, overall. Defenses have pretty much dominated the second half in each of the first two games. Some felt the Under cashing in Game 2 was a bit of good luck. While that may be due to the final score, the truth is, the game should have stayed several points Under if not for a lot of "meaningless" baskets over the final 2 minutes of the game. I expect San Antonio to continue having problems in the second half against Miami's switching on defense when the Spurs attempt their pick & rolls. Meanwhile, the Spurs will adjust (it's Popovich after all) to Miami's approach on the offensive end. Miami moved their offensive sets lower & lower on the court in Game 2, bringing everyone closer to the basket. Even Chris Bosh was getting the ball inside 18 feet from the rim, rather than outside the 3-point line. I expect both teams to play an intense brand of defense and for the game to land Under the posted total. These teams are on a 22-5 Under run when they face each other, including a 10-2 Under run in San Antonio. The Spurs are on a 4-0 Under run at home against teams playing better than .600 road basketball. Meanwhile, the Heat are on a 5-0 Under run, overall and they're 19-5 to the Under against teams with a winning record. I'm playing the Under on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under in Sunday night's Game 2 of the NBA Finals. I had the Under in Game 1 and after watching a relatively high scoring first half, the teams clamped down on the defensive end, became more deliberate on the offensive end and combined to score just 79 points over the final two quarters. I expect the strong defensive play to carry over to Sunday night. The Under is on an 11-3 run when San Antonio plays on two days rest and they're on a 15-5-1 Under run in their last 21 road contests. Miami enters on a 5-0 Under run on two days rest and the teams are 21-5 to the Under in their last 26 head-to-head meetings. The Heat truly pick up their play on the defensive end when they're off a SU loss. Miami has allowed just 82.4 ppg the last nine times in this situation. They held five of those nine opponents to less than 80 points. I expect a lower scoring game than most and I'm playing the Under on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Heat on Sunday night. Not a lot to add to the side in this one other than to say that the Heat played well short of their "A-game" in Game 1, yet if not for a "circus shot" made by Tony Parker in the closing seconds, the Heat could have won the contest. Now, with a couple more days off and with their ability to turn up the intensity at both ends of the floor off a loss, I expect Miami to handle the Spurs in what is virtually a "must win" situation for the Heat. Look for the Heat to attack the rim much like they did in Game's 5 and 7 against the Pacers and for similar results. I'm laying the points with Miami on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Spurs & Heat on Thursday night. When Miami is at their best, when they truly bring their "A-game," we see dramatic improvement on the defensive end. A perfect example came in Games 5 & 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals when they held the Pacers to 79 and 76 points, respectively. I expect a supreme effort on the defensive end in this one from both teams. The Spurs are well-rested which means fresh legs on the defensive end. At the same time, I do believe they may be a little rusty on the offensive end. Miami enters on a 20-8 Under run at home if they're off a double digit home win. And once we get to the Finals, if the #1 playoff seed is involved, games with a total range of 180 to 189 1/2 are on a 23-3 Under run. I'm betting on more of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Spurs & Heat on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Miami Heat, minus the points on Monday night. It's "Deja vu all over again." The Heat were here one year ago, hosting the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Miami came through with a 13 point win and cover and I expect similar results on Monday night against the Pacers. LeBron James put the Heat on his shoulders in that Game 7, scoring 31 points and grabbing 12 rebounds after losing three straight games in the series. In fact, many felt Miami's run for a championship was going to end before reaching the Finals. More people have abandoned the Heat in their run for a second straight championship. But again, I expect LeBron to take control on the offensive end like he did from the start in Game 3 and in the second half of Game 5. Dwyane Wade has called on his coaches to give himself and Chris Bosh more responsibility on the offensive end and I suspect we'll see both players heavily involved right from the opening tip, making the Heat an even tougher matchup for the Pacers. Miami is on a 10-1 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on an 11-2 ATS run after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games. NBA favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points are 24-4 ATS if they're in revenge, scored 85 or fewer points, and are off a double digit road loss as a favorite. I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I believe the NBA Eastern Conference Finals come to an end tonight and I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat for the second straight game. LeBron took over in the second half of Game 5, doing things I thought they'd do right from the opening tip. LeBron began handling the basketball in the third quarter, driving Paul George to the basket and finding others on the offensive end like he did in Game 3. After "waking up" and willing his team to victory I expect more of the same tonight beginning this time in the first or second quarter. Make Indiana defend the entire end and you take away some of what they are able to do on the offensive end, also. The Pacer backcourt is unreliable. In fact, in the three losses, Hill and Stephenson combined to make just 13 of 50 shots. The two were horrible on the offensive end on Thursday night. I believe the Miami backcourt will render both players ineffective again making the Pacers rely too much on the play of Roy Hibbert and Paul George. Miami's Chris "Birdman" Anderson has been suspended for this game, but I expect other Heat players to pick up the slack. Miami rolls into Game 6 on a 21-6 ATS run on the road. They're 6-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record and 18-8 ATS off of a double digit home win. I'm laying the points with Miami on Saturday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat on Thursday night. The Heat couldn't have been any flatter or played any worse than they did in Game 4. Indiana couldn't have carried out their game plan any better. Yet with just a few minutes to go in the game, the Miami Heat led by 3 points and had a chance to do serious harm to the Pacers in this series, but couldn't close the game out. I expect an extremely focused and intense effort from the Heat tonight and we saw just how well this team played in Game 3 when completely focused on the task at hand. When Miami is not on their game, they can look really bad. But when they bring their "A-game," they are the best team in the league. That's the team I expect to see tonight. LeBron drives and takes Paul George to the rim just like he did in Game 3, opening mid-range jumpers for his teammates. This isn't a case of playing "zig-zag." This is a case of the best team in the league "bringing it." Miami is a perfect 8-0, 100% ATS off a SU loss. I'm backing the Heat, minus the points on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat for the second straight game. The Heat made fantastic adjustments on the offensive end for Game 3 and while they'll attempt to, I don't believe Indiana will be able to counter with enough of their own. The reason is that slowing or stopping LeBron James is next to impossible. James began attacking the basket and taking Paul George inside in Game 3 which opened the perimeter for open looks and also gave room for baseline jumpers. All five Miami starters scored at least 14 points. I expect more of the same in Game 4 from the Heat and I don't believe Indiana has the matchup personnel to deny Miami's new attack strategies. The Heat enter on a 21-5 ATS run on the road, while the Pacers are on a 5-12-1 ATS slide off a double-digit home loss. I'm laying the points with Miami on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Spurs on Monday night. I have been bullish on the Spurs since this series was set the moment San Antonio wrapped-up their series with Golden State. Memphis was fortunate to make it to the Conf Finals. They faced a seriously hamstrung OKC team and were able to send three defenders at Kevin Durant over-and-over. But the Spurs simply own too many offensive weapons. Their ball movement and spacing is the best in the NBA. They destroy teams from the corners...all things the Grizzlies themselves cannot do on a consistent basis. Memphis has no consistent threat on the wings and the Spurs have had a pretty easy time defending them. I expect more of the same tonight. The Spurs are on a 5-1 ATS run on the road and they're 4-1 ATS in their last five in Memphis. More of the same. I'm grabbing the points with the Spurs on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Miami Heat on Sunday night. The Indiana Pacers certainly brought their "A-game" to South Beach and managed a split with the defending champs. But now we get Miami in a situation where it's almost a win-cover, due to the short line. Miami heads into this one on a 7-0 ATS run off a SU loss. And road teams off a loss as home chalk are on a 25-6 ATS run if they're playing no more than their third game in 10 days and the line is in a +3/-3 range. That's a combined 32-6 mark backing the Heat. Miami led Game 2 88-84, but miscues cost them the lead and eventually the game. They did not shoot well from the FT line and have plenty of room for improvement, while I feel Indiana has reached their peak. Look for Miami to gain back home court advantage with a big win on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Spurs & Grizzlies on Saturday night. I believe we got a peak of what to expect from Memphis in this one with the way they attacked San Antonio in the fourth quarter of Game 2. Memphis held the Spurs to 9 points over the final 12 minutes of regulation, getting back to the type of defensive play that got them to the Western Conf Finals. The Grizzlies are on a 12-5 Under run on their home floor. Meanwhile, the Spurs enter on a 4-0 Under run on the road against teams with a winning home record. They're 13-3-1 to the Under in their last 17 road games, overall, and the Spurs, with three days off to get ready for this one, are 4-1-2 to the Under with at least that many days off between games. More of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Spurs & Grizzlies on Saturday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat on Friday night. Lost in the debate over the way Game 1 ended on Wednesday with Roy Hibbert on the bench is the fact that Indiana brought their "A-game," Miami played poorly, yet the Heat found a way to win the game. Miami committed a ridiculous amount of turnovers (21), couldn't make a trey (5-18, 28%), and were out-scord by 8 points at the FT line on 7 fewer attempts. I believe Indiana has little room to improve on what they did in Game 1, while Miami knows they have a high ceiling for improvement. Miami beat the Pacers by 14 points in their lone regular season meeting at home and I expect a victory margin in that neighborhood tonight. Miami's on a 13-5 ATS run and they're 6-1 ATS off a spread loss. I expect Miami to win and cover on Friday and I'm laying the points with the Heat. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points in Game 1 with the Miami Heat. When Miami lost Game 1 of their series against the Bulls we heard they were "rusty." I'm not "buying." As I stated in that series, teams with a week or more layoff in the postseason have been a solid "play-on" against teams with less time off before Game 1. I also believe the results from the loss to the Bulls will further motivate the Heat tonight, keeping them focused on the task at hand. Indiana enters with a 2-4 SU road record in the playoffs. The four losses came by 10, 26, 11, and 21 points. And while Indiana beat Miami in Indianapolis twice this season, they lost 105-91 in South Beach. I'm expecting more of the same in this one. The Pacers are on a 2-6 ATS road slide, while the Heat are on a 13-4 ATS run, overall, and 6-0 ATS off a spread loss. I'm laying the points with the Heat on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Grizzlies on Tuesday night. Some will call it "rust" when referring to the beatdown Memphis received at the hands of the Spurs in Game 1. But I simply believe it was more a case of a little bit of "shock" moving up in competition after beating the banged-up Thunder and Clippers. Memphis was able to send three defenders at Kevin Durant every time he had the basketball and wore Durant down. But San Antonio is all about ball movement, spacing, and scoring options and it took a game for the Grizzlies to get used to the flow. On Tuesday, I expect a much better effort and game plan from Memphis. I suspect we'll see the Memphis backcourt more involved on the offensive end early on with dribble drive penetration and shooting the basketball. The backcourt does take care of the "rock" averaging just 9.6 turnovers per game in their last eight games. And while Zach Randolph was held in-check by the Spurs' intense effort on the defensive end, Randolph did miss a few open looks that he normally makes. In other words, Memphis faced the "perfect storm" rather than a case of "rustiness." Memphis enters on a 10-1 ATS run against teams with a winning SU record, including a 20-5 ATS run against teams playing better than .700 basketball. They're 10-1-1 ATS on one day of rest and 4-0 ATS off of their last 4 SU losses. Finally, you're on a 40-17 ATS run going against NBA home teams if they're off back-to-back double digit wins and their opponent scored 85 points or less in their last game. I'm taking the points with Memphis on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Knicks & Pacers on Saturday night. Indiana is going to have to get "nasty" on the defensive end in tonight's Game 6 and I suspect they'll look to close out the Knicks with their physical defensive play. George Hill is not likely to play tonight (concussion) and this means D.J. Augustin will see most of the time at the point-guard position. While Hill averaged between 4 & 5 assists per game during the playoffs, Augustin had zero assists in Hill's first missed game last time out. Indiana is going to have to work the ball patiently in this one and I expect they will. At the same time, the Knicks have scored just 85, 82, and 71 points in the last three games. It took Carmelo 28 shots to score 28 points in Game 5 and J.R. Smith's shot was still M.I.A.! The total has been moving up on Saturday morning, but I'm not "buying." NBA Game 6 matchups have been dominated by defense, currently on a 19-6 Under run when the total is in a range of 170 to 179 1/2. The Under is on a 40-16 run when teams playing .600 to .750 basketball are facing elimination (Knicks in this case) and the total is under 180. We look for more of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Knicks & Pacers on Saturday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Spurs on Thursday night. Mark Jackson has made major strides with the Golden State Warriors, but I'm looking for their season to come to an end against a powerful Spurs' squad in close-out mode. San Antonio has made the right adjustments defensively on Klay Thompson and Steph Curry and the dynamics have changed quickly in this series. The Warriors have gone from scoring 100 points and 106 points in regulation in the first two games of this series, to scoring 92, 84, and 91 points in the last three games. Curry and Thompson have combined to make just 30-of-87, 34.5% of their shots in the last three games, including just 12 made 3-pointers. David Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Gary Neal have done a fantastic job of holding Golden State's scorers in check and Andrew Bogut has been in foul trouble quite often. It's simply a case of the better team and the better coached team making the adjustments. And finally, road teams, playing .600 to .750 basketball, off a double digit home win are 51-23 ATS against teams playing .510 to .600 basketball. I'm laying the short points with the Spurs on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the New York Knicks on Tuesday night. I had Indiana this past Saturday and we cashed in the Pacers 82-71 win. But I expect this one to go right to the wire with the road underdog Knicks covering the number at the very least. Mike Woodson expects "all hands on deck" for this one after a couple of players were under the weather on Sunday. And according to Carmelo Anthony, the Knicks are hungry rather than angry following Saturday's loss. Of course, it would make things easier if J.R. Smith gets back on track on the offensive end, however, it's not completely necessary. Remember, Smith made just 3-of-15 shots in New York's 105-79 win in Game 2. What the team needs is simply better looks for other players and I expect to see that after a couple of adjustments from Game 3. Woodson and his team have been strong at this of late, going 6-1 ATS off a SU loss. They're 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and they're on a 33-15 ATS run as a road dog of 6 points or less. I'm grabbing the points with the Knicks on Tuesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Grizzlies on Monday night. Memphis played their worst game of the series last time out but still were good enough to beat the Thunder by six points. The bottom line is that Kevin Durant has no consistent help on the offensive end without Russell Westbrook and the Thunder are averaging just 89 ppg in the series. Kendrick Perkins has been a waste of space this postseason, and Serge Ibaka and Thabo Sefalosha are simply disappearing for long stretches on the offensive end. Look for Memphis to punish the Thunder inside on the offensive end and for the Grizzlies to continue their stingy ways on defense. The Thunder are on a 1-5 ATS slide on one day of rest and they're on a 0-4 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball. Meanwhile, OKC is on an 8-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 5-0 ATS run at home. OKC's 0-4 spot combines with Memphis' 8-0 spot for a 12-0 combined mark. I'm laying the points with Memphis on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Indiana on Saturday night. I had the Knicks in their by 105-79 win, but I look for the Pacers to hand the Knicks a beatdown in this one. Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton are both listed as probable. Stoudemire likely won't get more than 15 minutes if he does play. I believe he hurts New York more than he helps as his minutes increase, especially on the offensive end. The last thing the Knicks need are more problems on offense. J.R. Smith has gone ice-cold since his suspension in the Boston series and there's no reason to think he bounces back here. The Pacers have had Smith's number - and David West can make life tough on anyone he covers throughout a game, including Carmelo. I believe Indiana gets physical with the Knicks and that it'll leads to a wide-margin win. The Pacers are on a 10-4 ATS run off a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, as a coach, Mike Woodson teams are 4-15 ATS in playoff road games, on the wrong end of an average final score of 98-83 in those 19 outings. I'm laying the points with the Pacers on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Spurs on Friday night. The line adjustment in this contest is out of control, as far as I'm concerned. The last time these teams met at Oracle (February) the Spurs were a 3 1/2 point favorite. Obviously, things are different right now with Golden State "on fire" on the floor and in the public eye. But as I stated on my Thursday radio show in Las Vegas, if this game were played one month ago, at best, Golden State would have been a pick. Yes, the Warriors have been nailing their shots. But San Antonio has not. The Spurs have not brought their "A-game" as of yet, but still managed a comeback win in Game 1 and had their chances in Game 2. I expect this veteran winning squad to make the right adjustments tonight, to clamp down on the defensive end and to regain their shot at the other end. The Spurs enter on an 11-1 ATS run off a SU home loss, outscoring those 12 opponents by an average of 108-96. They're 14-4 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. And finally, NBA road teams are 24-6 ATS if they're off a home loss as a favorite, are playing no more than their third game in 10 days, and the line is in a +3/-3 range. Look for San Antone to regain home court advantage. I'm grabbing the points with the Spurs on Friday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Miami Heat on Wednesday. We saw Chicago take it to the Heat. They eliminated Miami's transition by taking care of the basketball. The Bulls also turned 9 offensive rebounds into 17 points. But I expect Miami to attack the basket in this one. Look for a lot more dribble drives from the Heat leading to shots in the paint or dishing out to the open perimeter shooter. Key word in that mix is "open" which they didn't see a lot of in Game 1. But then again, Miami didn't attack on the offensive end in that contest. I also don't believe Jimmy Butler is a 21 points & 14 rebounds player. And remember, Butler played the entire 48 minutes in Game 1. I expect the tough schedule and the amount of time played on Monday will be a factor in tonight's Game 2. And I expect a different and more aggressive approach from the Heat. Let's not forget that Chicago has been struggling off wins, going 2-8 ATS the last 10 times. Meanwhile, the Heat are on a 6-0 ATS run off a SU loss. That's a combined 14-2 ATS situation. I'm laying the points with Miami on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New York Knicks in Sunday's Game 1 battle with Indiana. Both teams are off rugged series, but it's the Knicks who I believe are better prepared to bring their "A-game" after each team had one day off between games (NY 8-2 ATS in this spot). Indiana relied heavily on a huge rebounding advantage over the Hawks, finishing the series with a +41 margin over the final two games. New York will not wilt under the glass, limiting Indiana's second chances, while gaining a few of their own at the other end. And the Knicks are on an 18-6 ATS run after allowing no more than 10 offensive rebounds in their previous two games. New York should also be a little tougher to defend than they were before the Boston series. Both Iman Shumpert and Pablo Prigioni shot well on Friday night and I expect Carmelo, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton to get the two involved on the offensive end early to take pressure off of Anthony who says his slightly injured shoulder is fine. The Knicks should also enjoy the pace we're likely to see in Game 1. Indiana allows just 90.7 ppg and New York is on a 20-7 ATS run at home against teams that allow no more than 91 ppg. They're also on a 5-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball and 10-1 ATS against teams with a winning SU record in general. Finally, Game 1 home teams after the first round have been the way to go ATS for many years. More of the same in this one. I'm laying the points with the Knicks on Sunday afternoon. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Knicks & Celtics on Friday night. Boston has held the New York Knicks in check on the offensive end in this series. Indeed, the Knicks have reached 90 points just two times, including once in OT, but they've not topped 90 points. Part of the problem for the Knicks is simply a lack of cohesiveness and the lack of a solid attack plan on the offensive end. I expect that to continue, basically with only two real scorers in Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. But the Knicks can improve on the defensive end where they have already play well. I expect an intense effort from both teams on their respective defensive ends of the floor and for scoring to be held in check once again. The Under is on a 7-1 run the last eight times these teams have met. And while the Knicks are on a 6-0 Under run off a spread loss, the Celtics are 7-1 to the Under against teams with a winning SU record. Those final two spots add up to a 13-1 combined mark. Both teams know they can rely on their defensive play. Neither team can rely on the offensive end. I'm playing the Under between the Knicks & Celtics on Friday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Chicago Bulls on Thursday night. Kirk Hinrich may not play tonight for the Bulls and we have heard about Deron Williams' improved numbers when Hinrich is not on the floor. But we have also seen a line adjustment in this one. The Bulls were a 3 1/2 point favorite when these teams met in Chicago on April 25 and they're 2 points lower for this one. I expect Chicago to double Williams tonight forcing Gerald Wallace and Reggie Evans to do more on the offensive end and that's simply not their game...or at least not their comfort zone. And let's not forget, Game-6 in Brooklyn was anyone's game to win with just over four minutes left in the contest before the Nets closed with a 15-1 run, leading to the misleading final score. I expect Tom Thibodeau to make the adjustments on the defensive end if Hinrich is unavailable, leading to the series clinching win. Chicago has been "money" when playing with a +3/-3 line range, going 40-22 ATS. They are also 71-46 ATS after failing to cover the spread in their previous game since Thiodeau has been calling the shots. The bottom line is that I'm betting the defensive matchups and adjustments, combined with the line adjustment will carry us to the cover. I'm laying the short number with the Bulls on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Celtics & Knicks on Wednesday night. I passed on the total in Game-4 and those that played the Under had to feel extremely unlucky when the contest went to an overtime period, finishing Over the posted number. The Knicks had a poor shooting night in Boston, especially Carmelo Anthony. But they were without J.R. Smith (returns tonight) and the Celtics were able to "double" and deny Carmelo without much else to worry about. No more of that with Smith back on the floor. I expect Anthony and his teammates to go for the jugular in this one on the offensive end. At the same time, it is an elimination game for Boston and I don't expect them to go quietly. If they fall behind by a few buckets in the 4th quarter I suspect Boston will foul quite a bit to do their best to extend the game. I also expect Jason Terry to continue to be a factor for Boston on the offensive end after "breaking out" with a 7-for-10 performance in Game-4. It should be noted that Boston has allowed an average of 101 ppg the last 143 times as an underdog in a line range that includes tonight's number. Boston and New York have played eight times in 2013 and this is the lowest posted total yet. In fact, Games 1 & 2 saw totals of 189 and 187. And finally, when Mike Woodson coaches a game in the 2nd half of a season (including playoffs), the Over is 46-25 against teams playing .400 to .499 basketball. The Celtics, at 41-43 fit the bill. I'm playing the Over between the Celtics & Knicks on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Indiana Pacers on Monday. I had the Under between these two last time out and we easily cashed the ticket. There will be a lot of talk on Monday that Atlanta's adjustments, going to a bigger lineup was the difference in winning and losing. While there's no doubt they were able to take the physical style the Pacers deliver in better fashion, it wasn't the main reason the Hawks won Game-3. Instead, it was a case of a flat and poor performance by Indiana. The Pacers went one stretch where they made just 6-of-36 shots. They committed a ridiculous amount of turnovers and were far short of their "A-game." But I expect a return to form in this one. Yes, the Pacers have a weak record in ATL over the years, but this is a much different Indiana team in 2013. It'll be Indiana that adjusts to the Hawks' bigger lineup in this one and I expect their shots to fall more often and for the backcourt to take care of the basketball. Indiana has adjusted well off wide-margin losses going 9-3 ATS after losing by doube-digits. They also fit a 27-10 ATS NBA spot playing on road teams off a loss where they scored less than 80 points, provided they're playing in no more than their 6th game in 14 days. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 0-5 ATS when playing with only one day off between games. I'm backing the Indiana Pacers on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night. It's been a bit of a shocker for the Nuggets, losing two straight despite the fact the Warriors are now without David Lee. But on Sunday night, I expect the Nuggets to even the series. Denver responded well last time out after getting overwhelmed in game-2 with Golden State's smaller lineup. The Nuggets lost 110-108 on Friday, switching to a smaller version of their own, but would have won the game in all likelihood if not for some shaky ball-handling in the fourth quarter. But as George Karl said, his team is learning and getting better - and now that they have the smaller matchups figured out, I believe they're ready to bounce back in the win column. Denver is a strong 16-5-1 ATS when playing with one day off between games and they're on a 25-13 run against teams that average at least 99 ppg. And finally, NBA road teams are on a 34-10 ATS run if they're off a road game where both teams scored at least 100 points, provided the line is in the +3/-3 range and the team is well-rested, playing no more than their 6th game in 14 days. I'm backing Denver on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Pacers and Hawks on Saturday night. We've seen Indiana have their way with ATL on the offensive end in the first two games of the series, but in what could be ATL's last ditch effort, I expect a lower scoring contest. We also have a total that is higher than in any of their five meetings since late December. In fact, the average posted total in those games was 184.6. The Under is 6-2 in Atlanta's last eight home games and they're 45-22 to the Under against "good" teams, which are those that out-score their opponents by an average of at least 3 ppg. I'm taking advantage of what I believe is an over-adjusted total and playing the Under between the Pacers & Hawks on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Denver Nuggets on Friday night. Golden State shocked the Nuggets in game-2, crushing Denver 131-117 on the road...and without David Lee, who's out for the rest of the playoffs with a torn hip flexor. The way the rest of the Warriors shot, not too many squads could have beaten them. But I expect a ridiculously intense effort from the Nuggets tonight after that leaky performance. It's also hard to imagine Golden State making 65% of their shots again and Mark Jackson's 3-guard lineup will no longer be a surprise. George Karl will make the adjustments. Also in Denver's favor will be Kenneth Faried playing in his second game back. Faried looked a little shaky in game-2, but now has a game under his belt and I expect more from the team's leading rebounder tonight - he may even start. The Nuggets have done a great job of adjusting and refocusing off a bad defensive game, going 12-2 ATS after allowing more than 125 points. Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just 5 of their last 16 off a SU win. Denver bounces back. I'm laying the points with the Nuggets on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between the Clippers & Grizzlies on Thursday night. Defense should rule the day in this game-3 matchup. Memphis made the Clippers work for every basket in the second half of game-2 and with their season on the line, down two game to none, I expect the intensity to be on high for the home team. They know they can't get into a track meet with the Clippers, their backcourt is too quick and too talented to do so. Memphis is on a 4-0 Under run at home and they're 17-5 to the Under against fellow Western Conf opponents. The Grizzlies and Lionel Hollins understand their best chance to win is by forcing a deliberate tempo while playing clampdown defense. I'm betting they'll have their way. I'm playing the Under between the Clippers & Grizzlies, which would make it 5-0 to the Under when these teams meet in Memphis. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I passed this matchup in game-1, but I'm laying the points with the Nuggets on Tuesday night. The Warriors took the Nuggets to the very last possession in their game-1 battle before Denver won the game on a last-second layup by Andre Miller. The loss in the game was tough enough, but the loss of David Lee for the rest of the playoffs (torn hip-flexor) took the air right out of the Golden State Warriors. Add in the fact that Kenneth Faried is expected to return for the Nuggets and the Warriors are in serious trouble. Golden State out-rebounded Denver 55-45 on Saturday. The Warriors got 14 rebounds from Lee, while Faried, Denver's top rebounder was on the bench. That's going to make for a huge difference on the glass on Tuesday in all likelihood. And not having Lee means the Nuggets can focus on and deny Steph Curry and Klay Thompson even more on the perimeter. Let's also not forget that Denver made just 18 of 28 free throw attempts and just 3 of 16 3-pointers...yet still found a way to win the game. The Nuggets are on a 6-1 ATS run against teams with a winning SU record and they're 43-19-1 ATS against Western Conference teams. Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just 6 of their last 20 against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with Denver on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Boston on Tuesday. As poorly as the Celtics played in certain areas, they were still in position to win game-1 in the fourth quarter. Boston has a couple of things they need to work out, including taking better care of the ball and they can't fade on the offensive end. Those are fixable problems from game-1 and I believe this veteran group will perform at a high level much like Chicago did in Brooklyn last night. Another improvement I expect is a better game from Kevin Garnett who made just 4-of-12 shots in the loss. Boston is outstanding at taking away key areas of an opposing team's offensive attack. They chose to deny potential role players from breaking out and joining Carmelo Anthony over the weekend. I suspect we'll see more double-teaming of Carmelo in this one which will make him have to pass out of double-teams and that would be a definite advantage for the Celtics. Boston is on a 4-0 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 13-5 ATS run against teams with a winning SU record. Boston enters on a 13-2 ATS run off a divisional loss on the road...and finally, NBA teams are 27-8 ATS if they're on the road and are off a loss where they scored less than 80 points, provided they have not played more than 6 games over the previous 14 days. Boston fits the bill and I'm grabbing the points with the Celtics on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Grizzlies on Monday night. The Clippers crushed Memphis 112-91 on the scoreboard in game-1, but the score hardly told the entire story. The Grizzlies trailed by only 1 point with 10 minutes to go in the game and were within 7 points with 7 minutes to go. Despite being out-rebounded 47-23 and the Clippers making 55% of their shots, it was still anyone's game to win midway through the final quarter. Look for Memphis to turn up the heat on the defensive end and on the glass in tonight's contest. The Grizzlies are on a 4-0 ATS run off a spread loss and they're 4-1-1 ATS when playing with 1 day off between games. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 1-6 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm grabbing the points with Memphis on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bulls on Monday night. The Bulls didn't practice yesterday, instead watching film from Saturday's ugly loss. I'm not so sure there was much the Bulls could have done to change the outcome of Game 1. The Nets simply couldn't miss. The Nets made 16-of-20 shots at one point of the first half and rolled to the win and cover. But Chicago has bounced back well under Tom Thibodeau, going 69-46 ATS off a spread loss. They'll also have Joakim Noah with more time under his belt after dealing with an injury and I expect a much different game from the former Florida Gator. Noah played just 13 minutes on Saturday but he's expected to start tonight and play close to his usual minutes. Chicago captured three of four from the Nets this season and clamped down on the defensive end and that's what I expect tonight. Chicago is on a 4-1 ATS run on the Nets' home floor. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is just 5-18 ATS when the total is in the 180 to 189 1/2 range, not playing as well at the pace that's expected tonight. They're also just 1-4 ATS when playing on one day of rest. Look for the Bulls to shore up the issues on the defensive end and for the Nets to put up more realistic shooting numbers in Game 2. I'm grabbing the points with the Bulls on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs in Sunday's game-1. It's obvious the Lakers will have to play at a more deliberate pace without Kobe Bryant. And yes, they won a pair of "big" games to capture not only a final playoff spot, but also the 7th seed in the west. But this team, minus Kobe, is receiving too much hype in my opinion. The fact is the Laker backcourt, in its current form, is no match for the Spurs' guards...even if Steve Nash plays. Nash, listed as questionable, is a long way from game-shape and I believe the Lakers won't be able to "hang" on the defensive end. And while everyone focuses on Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker, very few are talking about the emergence of Kawhi Leonard down the stretch, or the matchup headaches Tiago Splitter can give the Lakers. When these teams met in San Antonio in January, the Spurs were a 13 1/2 point favorite. The Lakers didn't have Howard or Gasol, but Nash and Bryant were both on the floor. When the teams met on April 14, the Spurs were as high as a 4-point favorite in Los Angeles with virtually the same available rosters we'll see in Sunday's game. The fact the Spurs are only laying 8 1/2 at the time of this release (in San Antone) shows the value we're receiving with Gregg Popovich's squad. Let's not forget that the Lakers have covered just 9 of their last 29 against teams that have won at least 70% of their games, allowing 102 ppg in the process and they have covered just 5 of their last 20 as a road underdog, allowing 108 ppg. Meanwhile, the Spurs are on a 34-16-1 ATS run at home against teams with a losing SU record. The Lakers played their "tails" off to get to the postseason - but I expect a rough welcoming in game-1. I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night. Look up "coaching mismatch" and you'll see Tom Thibodeau next to P.J. Carlissimo. You have to respect the way the Nets coach turned things around when he replaced Avery Johnson early this season, but I believe it was more of a case of addition by subtraction than it was Carlissimo's expertise. Thibodeau's Bulls proved to be too much for the Nets in three of four meetings this season. They clamped down on the defensive end when knocking off the Nets, but at the same time, we have seen Chicago win in higher scoring games this season, also. Just checkout their streak-busting wins over the Heat & Knicks. But in this one, I expect typical Thibodeau defense to catapult the Bulls to a win...or a cover at the very least. The Bulls are also as healthy as they have been in a long time (sans Rose). Joakim Noah is back, as are Taj Gibson and Marco Belinelli. Add in Chicago's playoff experience and the Bulls are ripe to pull the upset. Chicago is on a 6-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record, while the Nets are on a 0-4 slide at home against teams with a winning record. The Nets have also covered just 5 of their last 17 home games. I'm backing the Bulls plus the points on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Lakers on Friday night. We went have played on Golden State this week and won on Tuesday night and last night I went against the Warriors and won with the Thunder. Tough spot here for the Warriors and they may be without Andrew Bogut which makes life easier inside on Gasol and Howard. The Lakers are looking to stay in front of the Utah Jazz for the final spot in the Western Conference for the final spot in the playoffs ajnd I believe they will with a win over struggling Golden State. Kobe will take a ton of shots, if needed, like he did last time out. Or, he will distribute the ball to Gasol and Howard, which is the approach I expect tonight. The chalk is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series, while Golden State enters 3-11 ATS as an underdog and they have covered just 7 of their last 26 against teams with a winning SU record. I'm laying the points with Los Angeles on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Thursday. I released the Warriors on these pages on Tuesday and we cashed what was our Western Conf Game of the Month when they whipped Minnesota. The team celebrated the win in a big way and I can't say that I blame them. I believe it's going to be tough to "lace them up" for this one - even thought they're in a battle with Houston for the #6 seed. Golden State has covered just 5 of 16 on one day of rest and they're going to face a Thunder team that's still playing for the top-seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder have been simply "nasty" on the defensive end. They rank second in the NBA in defensive FG percentage and they're ninth in 3-point defense. They have held six of their last nine opponents to fewer than 90 points. OKC enters on a 5-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Thunder are on a 26-12 ATS run as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just 4 of their last 17 against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Kings on Wednesday. New Orleans played hard in last night's loss to the Lakers, but it looks as though they have "hit the wall." The Hornets have dropped nine of their last 10 road games and they have covered just two of their last 10 away from home. Sacramento has an extremely tough slate to close the season and this may be their final chance for a win. I believe this won't fall short on this team. Sacto have dominated this franchise at home, going 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 at home and I'm laying the points. Sacramento on Wednesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Golden State on Tuesday night. The Warriors are in a spot to wrap-up a playoff spot and I expect a focused effort. A loss here and the Warriors wouldn't be in an easy situation having to face a schedule that includes home games against Oklahoma City and San Antonio and a road game against the Lakers before closing the season in Portland. The spot or situation will not be lost on Mark Jackson or his players. Golden State has owned this series and will face a T-Wolves squad with a less than 100% healthy Ricky Rubio who's missed 19 of his last 23 shots. Golden State is on an 11-2 SU (10-3 ATS) run against the Woves. They're 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, while Minnesota is on a 1-9-1 ATS slide on the road against teams playing better than .600 basketball at home. That's a 13-1 combined mark. I'm laying the points with Golden State on Tuesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Saturday. I went 1-1 in the NBA last night, losing with the Thunder when they lost 101-93 in Minnesota. But I believe they're in a solid bounce-back spot tonight. The Thunder have been an outstanding money-maker off a SU loss since Scotty Brooks became coach. They'll face a Milwaukee team that's 1-10 ATS in their last 11 when playing with just one day off between games and they're 0-8 ATS when playing their third game in four days under Boylan. Home court has meant very little to the Bucks of late as far as the pointspread is concerned...the Bucks are on a 3-12 ATS slide in their last 15 at home. Kevin Durant and company simply didn't get the job done on the defensive end last night, but this is one of the best teams in the NBA (2nd) when it comes to defensive FG percentage, holding teams to 42.6% shooting. The Thunder had held their previous four opponents to less than 90 points scored in regulation. They'll face a Milwaukee team that's 25th in the league in FG percentage and 21st in 3-point accuracy. Defensively, the Bucks have allowed 104.7 ppg in their last 11 games...nine of those opponents scored at least 100 points. OKC gets "just what the doctor ordered," and I'm laying the points. The Thunder on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Friday night. The Thunder normally take care of business against teams they should handle, covering 10 of their last 12 against teams with a losing SU record. OKC has been outstanding on the defensive end of late holding their last four opponents to 80, 83, 89, and 83 points in regulation. This should come as no surprise when you consider OKC is the NBA's second stingiest defense in FG percentage allowed and ninth in the league defending the trey. The Thunder blew out Minnesota by 16 points and 22 points in their last two meetings, both in OKC, but lost 99-93 in their last trip to Minneapolis in December. It should be noted OKC was in a tough scheduling spot coming of wins over Atlanta & San Antonio and with Miami up next. It should also be noted Kevin Love scored 28 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. Love, of course, is out with a hand injury. Besides their 10-2 ATS mark mentioned above, OKC is 39-17-3 ATS in Western Conference action. Meanwhile, the T-Wolves are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 against teams playing better than .600 basketball. I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Friday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Hawks & Celtics on Friday night. These teams have gone over the total five of the last seven times they have met in Boston and I expect the "high" to continue to trend in that direction in this one. The winner in seven of the last eight Hawk games have scored at least 100 points and averaged 107.7 ppg. And the Hawks have played to the Over in each of their last four road games. Boston doesn't have their defensive enforcer with Kevin Garnett still sidelined by a foot injury which makes them vulnerable inside on the defensive end. Boston has played four games against playoff contending teams since Garnett's injury and those four opponents, New York, Memphis, Dallas, and Miami, scored an average of nearly 105 ppg. The Celtics enter on a 7-0 Over run at home against teams that make at least 46% of their FGA...Atlanta is 6th in the NBA nailing 46.5% of their shots. (Atl 4-0 Over run on the road & Boston's 7-0 Over run combine for an 11-0 mark). And finally, the Hawks are on a 35-17 Over run when playing with one day off between games. I'm playing the Over between the Hawks & Celtics on Friday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Bucks & Sixers on Wednesday. Brandon Jennings gets "just what the doctor ordered" tonight to snap out of a two game funk. Jennings has lit-up the Sixers for 26 ppg in his last three against them. Philly has a couple of hot hands themselves in Damien Wilkins and Dorell Wright and I expect their offensive surge to continue against the Bucks. The Sixers have been forcing the issue at home going Over the total in five of their last six home contests. And they're 10-1 to the Over this season as a home fave of 3 points or less. Look for both teams to play uptempo basketball and for this contest to go Over the posted total on Wednesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Memphis on Monday night. Marc Gasol is out (abdominal) for the Grizzlies and they're playing in D.C. where the Wizards have played a much better brand of basketball than they were early in the season, but I believe this number is too short. It is Washington's first home game following a four-game road trip that ended two nights ago with a 9-point loss at Golden State. I believe it's going to take a game for Washington to get back on track following the trip. I also expect Memphis to pick up the slack for the loss of Gasol, at least for now. Jerryd Bayless will take Gasol's time and scored 30 points in this role last time out. No less than seven players scored between 30 and 10 points, more than making up for Gasol's loss in the win over Boston. And look for a big-time focused effort from Zach Randolph after missing the first half of Saturday's game due to suspension. The bottom line to me is that the number has been over-adjusted. Memphis is 19-8 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season and they're on a 14-6 ATS run when the line is in a +3/-3 range. I'm laying the points with Memphis on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Sunday. The Thunder have struggled a bit of late, but get "just what the doctor ordered" in this one. Going back to February of last year, the Thunder have beaten Portland five straight times, scoring at least 106 points in four of those games. The Thunder whipped Portland the last two meetings in OKC, winning 106-92 and 111-95. OKC will welcome a Blazer team playing their 5th road game in 7 days. And after playing a pair of slower tempo teams the last two times out, I expect Portland to have their troubles against the league's 2nd highest scoring team (106.3 ppg). OKC was held to less than 100 points in each of their last two games. They have failed to reach 100 points in back-to-back games just five times this season, rebounding from this situation by scoring at least 100 ppg all four previous times, while averaging 108 ppg. OKC is 3-1 in this spot with the only loss coming to the Miami Heat. The Thunder are on a 9-1 ATS run at home against teams playing less than .400 basketball on the road. And they're 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against the Trailblazers. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma City on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Friday night. Back-to-back losses, including a 1-point OT loss last time out ought to have the Thunder focused and fired-up in this one. The Thunder have been tremendous under Scotty Brooks off a loss. They're on a 10-1 ATS run off a loss by 3 or fewer points and a perfect 7-0 ATS after failing to cover in three of their previous four games. OKC won those seven games by an average score of 113-94. It was all Durant and Westbrook last time out, but I expect big contributions from the other key players on Friday, starting with Serge Ibaka who slammed Orlando in their last meeting. Ibaka is off back-to-back weak performances after scoring in double-figures in 11 of his previous 12 games. The Magic are "just what the doctor ordered" for the Thunder. Orlando is 5-18 ATS at home in revenge and they're 2-12 ATS at home against teams that make at least 36% of their 3-point attempts. The situations add up to a 47-8 combined ATS mark. More importantly, the Thunder get a banged-up Orlando team to take out their frustrations against. I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pacers on Monday night. Indiana has struggled a little bit of late, including two straight losses heading into this contest. But I expect a bounce back on Monday. Indiana, arguably the second strongest team in the Eastern Conference are 4-0 ATS after losing two straight games this season. They won three of those games outright by an average margin of nearly 20 ppg and the only SU loss came by 1 point in Denver. One of the wins came against these Cleveland Cavaliers when Indiana won 96-81 on December 12 following back-to-back losses. The Cavs have not fared well of late either, losing 6 of 8 and should prove "just what the doctor ordered" for the Pacers. Indiana rolls into Cleveland on an 8-1 ATS run against teams with a losing home record and they're on a 4-0 ATS run against teams playing less than .400 basketball. The three pro-Indiana situations combine for a 16-1 ATS mark. I'm laying the points with Indiana on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. I've been saying for months that OKC may find better locker room harmony with James Harden in Houston, but his loss would not make them a better basketball team when the postseason begins. We have seen chinks in the armour already. OKC beat Dallas 117-114 in OT on January 18. Since then, the Thunder are just 6-8 SU on the road, including a current 1-4 SU road slide against Western Conference opponents. The Thunder have also been a bankroll buster on the road, covering just 5 of their last 15! Dallas is getting hot at the right time, winning five of their last six both SU & ATS as they attempt one final run at the NBA postseason. Their only loss came by one point in San Antonio. Fueling their motivation will be a chance to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of OKC this season with a win here. Dallas enters Sunday on a 23-7 ATS run in their last 30 games, overall, and they're on an 18-4 ATS run against conference opposition. The line has yet to catch up to Dallas' streaks and we'll take advantage. I'm taking the points with the Mavericks on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Thursday night. San Antonio promises to be a little ticked-off after their horrible performance in Minneapolis last time out. They were in a tough spot, fresh off the big win over OKC and Tim Duncan didn't play. Duncan is questionable for this one, but I like the Spurs whether he is or not. San Antone is the deepest team in the NBA and arguably the best team. And I expect several Spurs' players to be ready to atone for their bad night out. Take Cory Joseph and Stephen Jackson out of the mix and the rest of the team made just 19-of-63 (30%) FGA, including 5-of-23 from beind the arc. Tiago Splitter made just one of his 10 shots on the night. The Spurs also didn't play defense and watched Minnesota "can" 54% of their shots, including 12-of-20 3-pointers. Dallas is the unlucky team up next for the Spurs and I expect San Antone to slam the Mavs again. The Spurs have made 54% of their shots in three games combined against the Mavericks this season, scoring 113, 111, and 129 points. They're on a 4-0 SU/ATS run at home against the Mavs, winning by an average score of 107-85! The Spurs are on a 20-6-2 ATS run at home against teams playing less than .400 basketball on the road. They're 9-1-1 ATS after allowing at least 100 points in their previous game, and the Spurs are on a 5-0, 100% ATS run following a SU loss. That's a 38-7 ATS combined mark. I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Portland on Sunday. The Blazers are in much better shape right now than they were when they lost to New Orleans 99-63 right before the all-star break. Portland was right in the middle of a 7-game losing streak when these teams last met and they weren't healthy. Adding to the situation was an injury to Wesley Matthews just 90-seconds into the game. But the Blazers are healthier now and they're playing much better basketball, currently on a 4-2 SU run, while going 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven. It's New Orleans who's struggling this time. The Hornets are 2-8 SU/ATS since the win over Portland and they have dropped three in a row. The Hornets lost by 11 points in Memphis last night and they have covered just 3 of their last 10 when playing without rest. They're also 8-18 ATS when the line is in the +3/-3 range. With these teams heading in the opposite direction and with a now healthy Portland team looking to exact some revenge for a 36 point loss, I'll back the Blazers minus the pointson Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night. The Suns have won three straight games, including two in OT, but they haven't played since Friday and I suspect they'll have lost their short taste of momentum. After all, this isn't a good basketball team and they're coming into this one banged-up. The Morris brothers are questionable and not 100% even if they play. Goran Dragic is likely to play (hip) but Jermaine O'Neal is expected to miss three games due to personal issues and O'Neal has been playing on a serious uptick over the last few contests. The Suns are simply a limited team that's hamstrung with bumps and bruises and I expect Rudy Gay to lead an offensive attack that goes unchallenged tonight. Gay returned to the floor last time out and scored 26 points at Golden State. DeMar DeRozen has been on a tear, averaging nearly 21 ppg in his last five and Phoenix couldn't defend him in this season's first meeting. I expect more of the same in this one. The Raptors are on a 14-4 ATS run against teams playing sub-.400 basketball. Meanwhile, the Suns are 5-16 ATS in revenge of a road loss, losing by more than 8 ppg (30-9 combined spots). Toronto just faced Indiana, Milwaukee, and Golden State, and I believe they'll flourish with the serious step down in level of competition. I'm backing the Raptors on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Miami on Friday night. I've been saying for the last two seasons that if the Heat are focused...if there's extra motivation on their side, they stand a solid chance to blowout any team in the league. I suspect there will be extra motivation tonight for two reasons. First of all, Memphis crushed Miami 104-86 in their only meeting this season and the Grizzlies whipped the Heat 97-82 in Miami in last year's final meeting. Bosh, James, and Wade all played in both meetings and all saw regular minutes, yet all were part of a badly beaten Miami squad. I expect all three to be ready to exact serious revenge in this one. The second reason for the added focus is that Memphis is on an 8-game win streak...and that will certainly get the Heat's undivided attention. The streak is a little misleading when you consider five of the home wins came against Dallas, Orlando, Sacramento, Minnesota, and Golden State. All five have losing road records and the first four on the list have a combined road mark of just 29 wins and 87 losses. Two of the road wins came against Detroit and Toronto. There's obviously a serious upgrade in the level of competition in this one. Dwyane Wade is throwing down 32 ppg in his last three games and he's averaged 25 ppg in his last 10 on 55% shooting. Miami is on a 4-0 ATS run on two days rest and they're also on a 4-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball. They're 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against the Grizzlies. I'm laying the points with the Heat on Friday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the T-Wolves & Suns on Tuesday night. The Phoenix Suns have played five home games since January 30. Four of the five games saw posted totals ranging from 199 1/2 to 205. Only one total was below 199 1/2 and that was Friday's total of 187 1/2. We took advantage of the low total on these pages, cashing the Over in their game against the Celtics when the teams combined for 201 points. Tonight's total is also low, in my opinion. After all, the Suns allow 100.2 ppg on the season on 46.9% shooting (28th) and 39.1% 3-point shooting (30th). They're also catching the Timberwolves with Ricky Rubio playing his best offensive basketball since his ACL injury last season. Rubio is averaging 15 ppg and nearly 10 apg over the last nine games and should have little trouble scoring and creating against the soft Suns. It should be noted that the winning team in Minnesota's last 12 road games (and 18 of their last 19) have scored at least 100 points. The T-Wolves and their "hosts" have combined for an average of 200 ppg in those 19 outings. I expect both teams to score their share of points with the way the Suns play defense (or don't play defense, I should say). The T-Wolves are on a 6-1 Over run on the road and they're 7-1 to the Over against teams playing sub-.400 basketball. Finally, five of the last six meetings in Phoenix have gone over the total. I'm playing the Over between Minnesota & Phoenix on Tuesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the 76ers & Knicks on Sunday night. The Sixers are going to have a tough time on the defensive end in this one in my opinion. Last night, they allowed 114 points to Miami in a 24-point loss. Philadelphia's starters combined to play more than 160 minutes in the contest and a total of just seven players saw more than 8 1/2 minutes of playing time. I suspect they're going to struggle with their energy level and that normally shows up on the defensive end of the floor in the NBA. However, on the offensive end, they ought to fare well, led by Jrue Holiday who has averaged 26 ppg in his last three games against the Knicks. Carmelo Anthony scored 32 points last time out and against the Sixers, in this situation, I expect him to snap out of a recent skid from behind the arc. He goes unmatched in this one...especially against a tired team. The Knicks have lost four straight games. That's an important note because they usually pick up the pace when in a slump of this nature. New York and their opponents have averaged a combined 201 ppg the last 130 times following a Knicks' four game losing streak. They're on a 5-1 Over run in their last six games and when Mike Woodson is the man in charge, his teams are 43-23 to the Over during the second half of the season when facing a marginal team, one playing between .400 & .490 basketball. The average combined point total in those 66 games is 202. I believe we'll see a higher scoring game than expected and I'm playing the Over between the 76ers & Kicks on Sunday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Jazz & Clippers on Saturday night. These two teams have gone over the total in five straight meetings, averaging a combined 211 ppg in the process. The winner in the last 14 meetings has scored an average of 107.9 ppg, scoring at least 103 points in all 14 contests. Utah has been a momentum team on the offensive end for a while now, going 65-36 to the Over on the road following a game where they scored at least 110 points. The Jazz beat Golden State 115-101 last time out. They're also on a 5-0 Over run against teams with a winning record. The posted totals in the Clippers' last three games have been 201, 201, and 208. LAC & Houston combined to score 202 points in the only game that finished under the posted total (208) still topping the total for Saturday's tilt. The Clips are on a 16-6 Over run off a spread loss and they're on a 5-0 Over run against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles was extremely rusty and sluggish on Thursday, playing their first game in a week. I expect a high energy effort on the offensive end tonight and I expect Utah to score enough to help push this one over the posted total. I'm playing the Over between the Jazz & Clippers on Saturday night. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Friday night. I don't normally lay a lot of points in the NBA, but the Thunder have punished teams by wide margins on their home floor. Before losing to Miami, the best team in the NBA, the Thunder had won their previous five home games by scores of 127-96 (-14 v. Suns), 119-88 (-11 v. GST), 112-91 (-8 1/2 v. Mavs), 106-89 (-9 1/2 v. Memphis), and 117-97 (-9 v. Denver). That's an average final score of 116-92, while laying an average of more than 10 points per contest, covering by an average of 14 points per game! The fact they have shown the ability to crush teams at home time-and-time again, gives us the confidence to back them minus the big number on Friday. The total in this one is 204 1/2 at the time of my post. It should be noted that the last 16 times OKC has been involved in a game with a posted total of 200 or higher, they have scored an average of 112 ppg, while holding the opposition to 95 ppg. And when OKC gets on a major offensive roll, the momentum usually carries over for at least one more game. OKC has averaged 111 ppg the last 19 times they scored at least 110 points in their previous game. I highly doubt the Timberwolves can hang when the fired-up and embarrassed Thunder heat it up on the offensive end. The T-Wolves enter on a 1-10-2 ATS slide when playing with one day off between games and they're 0-6-1 ATS against teams playing better than .600 basketball (16-1 combined play-against spots). And finally, NBA teams averaging at least 103 ppg on the season are on a 66-28 ATS run after allowing at least 120 points in their most recent game. The Thunder average 106.3 ppg and just allowed 122 points to Houston. OKC whipped Minnesota by 22 points in January. I believe they'll blow out the T-Wolves again. I'm laying the points with the Thunder. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night. Rudy Gay had to be champing at the bit during the break...waiting for a chance to "get back" at his former employer. I suspect he and his new mates will be the motivated side in this one. Since the trade, Gay is averaging 21.1 ppg for his new team and the ball goes through Gay on the offensive end, which has worked out well. Toronto enters on a five-game winning streak after last night's 96-88 win and cover at Washington. No problem playing back-to-back nights since the players just had plenty of time off. Memphis is playing better basketball of late, including last night's 14-point win and cover in Detroit. But I don't believe they'll matchup well with the Toronto combo of Kyle Lowry and John Lucas, who have been playing outstanding basketball since the trade, easily making up for the loss of Jose Calderon. I don't like Memphis' additions as much and I expect Gay to be extra motivated thanks for Zach Randolph's remarks that he was glad Gay was traded. The Raptors are 14-3 ATS when playing without rest and they're on a 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS run, overall. I'm backing the Raptors on Wednesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Blazers on Tuesday night. A February 2 win over Utah marked Portland's fourth straight home win and they went into a six-game road trip on a 4-2 SU run, overall. After opening the road swing with a win in Minnesota, things were looking up for the young Blazers, but then the wheels came off. Portland went into the break on a five-game losing streak (all on the road) and they hit rock-bottom in a 99-63 loss at New Orleans in their final game before the break. But Portland is back in the comforts of the Rose Garden where they're 17-8 SU...and again, on a 4-0 SU run. Portland is also 13-3 ATS following a game where they scored 80 points or less. And while just about everyone on the Phoenix roster could be sent packing in the next 48 hours, Portland has their nucleus in place for the future...an important advantage heading into the trade deadline and that's with or without Wesley Matthews (ankle) who's questionable for tonight's game. The Suns have dropped four straight, overall. They're 5-23 SU on the road and have covered just 4 of their last 16 in road revenge this season. The Blazers are on a 75% ATS run when playing with at least three days off between games and I expect the trend to continue upward. I'm laying the points with the Blazers on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Thursday night. Motivation! That's one key word in this one. But it's not the only reason I'm laying the points. I believe OKC, off the SU loss to Utah last time out, is the better team in tonight's situation and they have history on its side. The Thunder enter Thursday on a phenomenal 70-34-1 ATS run off a SU loss. And yes, Miami beat this team in the NBA Finals last summer and again on Christmas day. And yes, Lebron James is on a record-setting "heater." WhIle I won't diminish that too much, the bottom line is that his red-hot offensive run has come against the NBA's version of the "sisters of the poor," well, at least on the defensive end. Lebron and the Heat did this against a Portland team that ranks 27th in defensive FG percentage. They did it aganist the Lakers who rank 23rd in ppg allowed and against the Clippers, who were horrible without Chris Paul who was playing in his first game since the injury. The Clippers, by the way are 25th in 3-point defense & Lebron went 4-for-5 from behind the arc. The other three games were against Houston (29th in ppg allowed), Charlotte (27th in ppg allowed), and Toronto (22nd in FG percentage defense). Now Miami goes on the road, the game before the break and faces arguably the most talented team in the NBA. OKC is the league's top scoring team, averaging over 106 ppg, but they're also strong on defense where they rank 2nd in FG percentage allowed, holding the opposition to 43% shooting. Besides the 70-34-1 ATS run mentioned above, the Thunder are on a 9-1 ATS run off an upset loss as a favorite, outscoring those 10 teams by an average score of 109-94. And OKC is on a 4-0 ATS run off a SU double-digit loss. I'm backing Oklahoma City, minus the points on Thursday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Jazz & Timberwolves on Wednesday. This has been an Over series to say the least, going 20-5-1 to the Over in their last 26 meetings, including a 5-0-1 Over run in Minnesota. The total was set at 196 in their January meeting at Utah and almost got there despite Minnesota's 2-of-17 night from behind the arc and 34.5% shooting night, overall. The average posted total in the last 10 meetings was 205. And in fact, only once in the last 10 meetings was the total posted below 196 (190.5) and the teams combined for 206 points in that one. It certainly doesn't hurt that Al Jefferson is on display for trade possibilities...and Alec Burks has caught fire the last couple of games for Utah. The Jazz allow 98.7 ppg and rank 21st in FG percentage allowed and 26th in 3-point defense. Minnesota's a bottom-third team in FG percentage allowed, also. As far as the "techs" are concerned, besides the head-to-head Over run mentioned above, the Jazz are 17-4 to the Over against teams with a losing record and 5-2 Over in the second of back-to-back nights. Meanwhile, the T-Wolves are on a 20-7 Over run against teams with a winning record. More of the same. I believe the total has been set too low and I'm playing the Over between the Jazz & T-Wolves on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the T-Wolves & Grizzlies on Sunday. I played Minnesota & New York to finish over the posted total on Friday night, but fell one basket short. Unfortunately, the Timberwolves went 1-for-13 from behind the arc. Shoot a horrible 2-for-13 and the game cashes. As far as Memphis is concerned, we can see progress starting to be made after trading away Rudy Gay, the player the offense previously ran through. The Grizzlies and their last two opponents combined for 192 and 195 points. Zach Randolph seems to have broken out of his slump, making 29 of 47 shots over the last three games, averaging 19 ppg and over 10 rpg. Meanwhile, the winning team in seven of Minnesota's last eight games has reached 100 points or more, including in five straight games. Each of their last eight games have topped the posted Total for today's game, with an average of 200.8 ppg combined, yet the number is being held down a bit due to perception involving the Grizzlies. The total is on a 4-0 Over run when Minnesota plays on the road, while Memphis is 5-1 to the Over in their last six. More of the same. I'm playing the Over between the Timberwolves & Grizzlies on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Knicks & T-Wolves on Friday night. Tonight's total has been set five points lower than the total for this season's first meeting. While that contest finished Under, the adjustment, due to injuries for the most part, has dropped the total too much as far as I'm concerned. Minnesota is getting great play at the offensive end from Ricky Rubio, but they have no one to defend Carmelo Anthony on the other end of the floor. They're also facing the NBA's second most accurate 3-point shooting team (38.4%). Minnesota enters tonight ranked 22nd on the defensive end, allowing 46% shooting. And we note that Mike Woodson-coached teams have had little trouble against weak defensive units. His teams have played 154 games against defenses that allow at least 46% shooting. He's 90-64 to the Over with 202 points per game being scored on average. The Knicks are on a 10-2 Over run on the road when the total is posted from 190 to 199.5. They're 7-0 to the Over when that number is in the 195 to 199.5 range. Meanwhile, Minnesota is on a 6-1 Over run off a double-digit loss. More of the same in this one. I'm playing the Over between the Knicks & Timberwolves on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Celtics & Raptors on Wednesday night. Rudy Gay is off to a great start with the Raptors, scoring 49 points combined in his first two games and he's quickly found chemistry with his new teammates. I expect Gay to continue to flourish - and get his team involved on the offensive end against the Celtics, who I expect to be hamstrung on the defensive end. Boston has picked up the slack offensively, since the injury to Rajon Rondo. All five starters have been scoring in double-figures of late and the bench has been terrific on the offensive end, contributing an average of 48 ppg in their last three games. In fact, since the Rondo injury, the Celtics have averaged 100.5 ppg. I expect more points than normal from these two teams and I'm playing the Over between the Celtics and Raptors on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Heat & Raptors on Sunday. The Heat lost by 13 points to Indiana two nights ago. The interesting note is that when Miami loses by more than 10 points they "turn up the Heat" on the offensive end. This season, Miami has followed losses of more than 10 points by scoring 119, 113, 106, and 112 points, for an average of 112.5 ppg. Take it back to last season and they scored 100 or more the final three times off a loss of more than 10 points. Lebron and company regain their focus off an embarrassing loss in a hurry and I expect more of the same in this one. I'm not betting on Miami to cover the number, but I do believe we're in for a high scoring affair. Miami is on a 5-1 Over run when playing with one day off between games and they're on a 34-16-1 Over run the last 51 times off a double-digit loss. I'm playing the Over between Miami and Toronto, which would extend the Over run in this series to 6-2 the last eight times at Air Canada Centre. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Hornets & T-Wolves on Saturday night. These teams have met twice this season, combining for 196 and 215 points. I expect the high scoring to continue. The winning side in seven of New Orleans' last eight games has scored at least 100 points and averaged 109 ppg. Meanwhile, the winning side in three of Minnesota's last four games has also averaged 109 ppg. In fact, the T-Wolves and those three opponents combined for 211, 203, and 215 points. The bench is deep now that Ricky Rubio is back to starting. Shved and Barea come off the bench to provide and offensive shot in the arm. At the same time, the Wolves don't have anyone to hang with Ryan Anderson, averaging nearly 20 ppg in his last eight games, while leading the league this season in made 3-pointers. The Hornets enter on a 7-2 Over run against Western Conf opponents, while the T-Wolves are on a 6-0 Over run against teams playing below .400 basketball. I'm playing the Over between the Hornets & Wolves on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the 76ers on Friday night. This has been a one-way series of late with Philadelphia on a 7-1 SU & ATS run against the Kings. The Sixers' seven wins came by an average of 18.4 ppg. And while Philly is in the middle of an eight-game home stand that will have major implications on their postseason chances, the poor-traveling Sacramento Kings are playing their fourth road game in seven nights, part of a six-game road trip. Sacto is 1-2 thus far, with the two losses coming by 18 and 28 points. Over their last 14 games, the Kings (4-10 SU) are just 2-11-1 ATS, allowing 107 ppg. They're 1-8-1 ATS when playing with one day off between games and 0-4 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record. Philadelphia's Jrue Holiday presents a tough matchup, even for the decent Sacto guards. Holiday has helped his team to a 4-1 ATS run in their last five games. I believe there'll be one more in the win column for Philly on Friday. I'm laying the points with the 76ers. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Thursday night. What a difference a few months can make. When these two met in November, the Grizzlies were quite happy with their lineup, while OKC was getting used to the addition of Kevin Martin, the loss of James Harden, and they were playing their 6th game in 9 days. Tonight's rematch finds a very different looking Memphis team after yesterday's trade involving the Raptors and Pistons that sent Rudy Gay to Toronto. Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye, and Ed Davis are the additions to the Grizzlies' roster. Whether they're in uniform tonight or not makes no difference to me. And I'm not so sure trading away Gay sends a positive message to those who remain on the roster. Also, besides a chance for OKC to exact their revenge, they're off an ugly loss to the L.A. Lakers. And while I sometimes look to play against a team off a road trip, that's not the case here. OKC is not only too talented for that, but they have been off for three days and they're 6-1-1 ATS with at least three days off between games. I also look for a big game from Westbrook, who shot just 6 of 22 last time out. Tough spot for the Grizzlies and I'll play against them. I'm laying the points with the Thunder as they look to extend to 5-0 ATS off a SU loss. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the Heat & Nets on Wednesday night. These teams have met twice so far this season, once in November and once in December. The totals posted in those two games was 192 1/2 and 208, both above tonight's opening total of 189. Avery Johnson was coaching the Nets back then and since his firing, Brooklyn has opened up the offense a bit more with P.J. Carlissimo calling the shots (9-5 Over last 14). I also expect more from Brook Lopez. After all, he missed one of the games against Miami and scored just 8 points in the other. Lopez averages nearly 20 ppg. And as reported, Heat & Nets are the only two teams in the NBA with three players averaging at least 17 ppg. Miami heads into this one having gone Over the total in three straight games and in five of their last seven. The average posted total in the seven games was 197.7, again, much higher than tonight's total. They're 6-2 to the Over in their last eight against teams with a winning record, while the Nets aree on a 7-3 Over run off a SU win. I'm playing the Over between the Heat & Nets on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Hornets on Tuesday night. New Orleans has been a serious money maker over the last three weeks, going 9-3 ATS, including 7-1 ATS when getting points. The Lakers have won their last two games, playing an unselfish brand of basketball, especially Kobe Bryant, who has dished out 14 assists in each of their last two games. But with the wins, we now have a case of "here we go again." The Lakers are over-valued as they have been for so many years. They're also off the big win over OKC on Sunday and embark on a 7-game road trip following Tuesday's contest. And let's not forget the Lakers looked great in a 2-game win streak in mid-January, before losing each of their next four games by nearly 10 points per game on average. New Orleans is playing hard each and every night and they're on an 8-4 SU run in their last 12 games. Ryan Anderson presents matchup problems because of his size (6'10) and the fact he takes about 8 3-pointers per game. The Hornets also could present the Lakers with problems inside with Anthony Davis and Robin Lopez challenging L.A.'s weakness...defending the paint. The Hornets are on a 4-0 ATS run on the road to go along with their 7-1 ATS underdog run mentioned above. Meanwhile, the over-valued Lakers have covered just 8 of their last 26 off a SU win and they're 15-35-2 ATS against teams with a losing SU record. I'm taking the points with New Orleans as they look to extend their run against the Lakers in Los Angeles to 11-3 ATS. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Denver on Monday night. The Pacers are playing their 4th game in 6 nights and their 7th road game since January 13 - and they have looked a bit worn out in their last 2 games. Getting back on track is not likely to happen in Denver, where the Pacers have dropped 6 of their last 7. Denver has won 10 of their last 13 after tackling the league's most difficult schedule through the first 2 months of the season. The Nuggets have been tearing it up on the offensive end of late and they're averaging nearly 104 ppg on the season. I expect Denver to apply serious pressure on the offensive end, knowing they're catching a Pacer team that's playing their 4th straight road game. Indiana is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have been serious money-makers against the sluggish pace of the Central Division, going 14-3 ATS the last 17 times against those teams. They're also on a 12-4 ATS head-to-head run with Indiana. I'm laying the points with Denver on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between the T-Wolves & Bobcats on Saturday night. Minnesota is the walking MASH unit of the NBA, which makes it extremely tough for a team to play an intense brand of defense, especially in the middle of a busy stretch. Minnesota lost in D.C. 114-101 last night and will be playing their second game in as many days and their fifth game in eight days. Making things tougher, the Timberwolves have been bouncing back and forth between road games and home games during the stretch. They head into this one on a 5-0 Over run on the road against teams with a losing home record. Charlotte will be facing a weary and short-handed opponent, which means Kemba Walker, Ramon Sessions, and Ben Gordon could be in for very big nights on the offensive end. The Bobcats are on an 11-3 Over run when the total sits from 190 to 190 1/2 and they're on a 12-3 Over run when the game is expected to be competitive, with a line in the +3 to -3 range. It all comes together in this one. I'm playing the Over between the T-Wolves & Bobcats on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with OKC on Friday. This will be the 5th road game of a 6 game road trip that ends on Sunday for the Thunder. I went against OKC on Wednesday and we cashed with Golden State. The Thunder were in a tough spot and couldn't "keep-up" down the stretch. I expected that...obviously. But I also expect a focused and fierce effort in Sacto on Friday. Oklahoma City may overlook the Kings under normal circumstances, but not off a loss, in my opinion. The Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS when playing on one day of rest. They'll face a Kings' squad that's off a 106-96 home loss to Phoenix two nights ago. The Kings are on a 0-6-1 ATS slide on one day of rest. OKC is also a money-maker off a SU loss. They enter this one having just one 2-game losing streak all season. They're 8-1 SU & 7-2 off a SU loss, winning the eight games by an average score of 109-94. And it should be noted Kevin Durant's squad has scored an average of 106 ppg in their last five visits to California's capital city. This is a reeling Kings' team and organization that's 28th in the league in points allowed per game and 22nd in FG percentage allowed. They're a poor rebounding team and they're 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games, overall. In fact, Sacto is on a 0-5-1 ATS slide at home and 7-24-2 ATS off a spread loss. OKC gets "just what the doctor ordered" in their attempt to bounce back in the win column off a loss. I'm laying the points with the Thunder on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the LA Clippers on Thursday night. Chris Paul is not expected to play in tonight's contest and that's fine with me in this situation. First of all, a less than healthy Chris Paul was hurting his team rather than helping. And when they did play without Paul, the Clippers swept a recent 3-game road trip SU & ATS. Not only will they have healthy bodies on the floor, but the rest of the team now has two reasons to focus. First of all, they're looking to avoid a 3-game losing streak. And second, everyone knows they need to pick up their game to make up for Paul's absence. If Paul does surprise everyone and plays, it'll be because he's near full health. Coach Vinny Del Negro has made it clear that they won't play him if he's still in pain as he was in his last couple of outings. "There's no timetable right now," coach Vinny Del Negro said. "He's just go to work through it and we'll get him a lot of therapy and when he's ready, he'll be ready." Phoenix is going through a battle among coaches. Alvin Gentry was fired last week and interim coach Lindsey Hunter got his first win as a coach in last night's victory in Sacramento. Two assistants have left the team after Hunter was given the interim position. In other words, this team is still a mess despite the win...and there are frustrations among some of the players as we saw with Jermain O'Neal's suspension (questionable tonight) that left him in Phoenix, while his team traveled to Sacto. As far as the matchups are concerned, this one is "no contest." The Suns' "bigs" are soft. The Clippers' are not. And LAC plays a "nasty" brand of defense ranked 4th in ppg allowed and in FG percentage allowed. When teams do hang around against the Clips it's usually because they can score from beyond the arc. But Phoenix is not only soft inside, but rank 29th in the league in 3-point accuracy, making just 33.2% of their tries. At the other end, LAC is deadly on offense, making over 47% of their FG attempts. They'll face a discombobulated Phoenix squad that's 29th in FG percentage allowed and 30th in 3-point defense. The Clippers clobbered Phoenix twice in December, including a 26-point win in the desert, extending the series' chalk run to 4-0 ATS. The Clippers, who lost by 12 at home to OKC last time out are on a 4-0 ATS run off a double-digit home loss. They're 11-4 ATS when playing with one day off between games. Meanwhile, the Suns have covered just 5 of their last 18 off a SU win and they're on a 0-4 ATS slide at home. I believe their current 2-game losing streak keeps the Clips focused throughout in this one. And while the Suns may be "game" in the first half, I'm betting they don't have the staying power for the entire four quarters. I'm laying the points with the Clippers on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night. Mark Jackson's crew slumped a little bit with Steph Curry sidelined, but the Davidson alumn is back in uniform and the Warriors are 2-0 since his return, including a MLK day victory over the LA Clippers. Curry has scored a combined 48 points with 13 assists since his return and everyone else feeds of the young star's play. Curry may be the best pure shooter in the league and his backcourt mate, Klay Thompson has truly come into his own since Monta Ellis found a new employer. OKC is in a tough spot tonight. They got a very nice win over the Clippers last night, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 7th in their last 11. OKC's key players saw a lot of minutes last night and now will have to work at both ends of the floor against a Warrior squad that "cans" 46% of their shots (7th in the league), including over 39% of their 3-pointers (1st). Golden State ranks 6th in FG percentage allowed and they're 2nd in the league defending the trey. They're also 7th on the glass which not only makes the potentially weary Thunder work harder, but also negates their usual advantage on the boards. The Warriors are on a 17-6-1 ATS run against teams with a winning SU record and I expect another win tonight. I'm backing Golden State on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Boston on Tuesday night. The Cleveland Cavaliers are back home after a five-game, nine-night road trip. The problem for Cleveland is the opponent. To say Doc Rivers was extremely ticked-off with his team after their most recent loss would be putting it mildly. After losing 103-88 to Detroit on Sunday, Rivers had this to say about his squad: "I gotta either find the right combination or the right guys, or we're going to get some guys out of here." This spot reminds me quite a bit of the situation Atlanta was in last Wednesday when they took out their frustrations on Brooklyn in a 109-95 win (we had the Hawks). Here's a chance for Boston to get away from home, regroup, and pound a short-handed team that's lacking serious NBA talent even when healthy. After three straight losses, the Celtics are getting "just what the doctor ordered," and I believe they'll come through by a wide margin. The Cavaliers are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 home games and they're on a 1-5 ATS slide at home following a road trip of at least seven days. I'm laying the points with Boston on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Monday night. San Antonio crushed Philadephia in last season's meetings and January's matchup was no different with the Spurs winning 109-86. No less than six Spurs' players scored at least 12 points in the win. San Antonio snapped a 3-game road skid on Saturday with a win in Atlanta. It was the Spurs fourth straight win, overall. And while you'll read reports that this is the Spurs' third game in four days, it should be noted that they were off on Sunday and Tim Duncan will be fresh after sitting out Saturday night's contest. The Spurs are the league's third highest scoring team and they're second and fifth in FG percentage and 3-point accuracy. They'll face a 76er team that has allowed 104.2 ppg over their last seven outings. Not good news for the Sixers since they're 27th in the league averaging 93.2 ppg. I had Philadelphia last time out, but that was more of a play against the situation Toronto was in rather than a play on the Sixers. And we did get a bit lucky in that one. Philly has covered just one of their last six following a SU win. They're 8-21 ATS in their last 29 against Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 40-17-1 following a SU win and they're on a 41-19-2 ATS run against teams with a losing SU record. More of the same. I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Monday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Sixers on Friday night. Philadelphia won this season's first two meetings, by eight points at home and by 10 points in Toronto. But the Raptors won the most recent meeting, a 90-72 blowout winner just nine days ago. The Sixers were in a tough spot playing their sixth game in nine days, their second in two nights, and it was their ninth road game in 10 outings. But Toronto is the "busy" team this time and they're off an OT loss at home to Chicago last time out. The Raptors had a hot run to end 2012, but they're just 2-5 SU (2-4-1 ATS) in their last seven games, allowing at least 104 points in each of the five losses. This marks the third game in four nights for the Raptors, they're hosting the Lakers next, and they're 4-16 on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Sixers will be looking to atone for their embarrassing performance in Toronto last week. The Raptors are 1-3-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they're 0-3-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record. I'm laying the points with the 76ers on Friday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Miami on Thursday night. Laker HC Mike D'Antoni said the Lakers' new season would start this past Sunday. Since then, they're 2-0. But they didn't exactly face top-shelf opposition beating the Cavaliers & Bucks and they're on a 3-13 ATS slide at home after two straight covers as a favorite. Now they find themselves laying points to the defending champs. Miami played last night and they have been busy. But last night's game was more like a glorified practice. The Heat led Golden State by 14 at the half and by 30 after three quarters. This allowed the starters to spend plenty of time on the bench. In fact, Chris Bosh, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade all sat on the bench for the entire fourth quarter. I think that tells us that this team wants to win on Thursday night. The Lakers may bring back Pau Gasol on Thursday. I don't care if they do or not. In fact, it may hurt the Lakers if he returns against a quality opponent like Miami. The Lakers biggest problem this season has been their interior defensive play. That's bad news against James & Wade, who can drive the paint all night long. The matchups are in place and so are the "techs." Miami is on a 41-20-1 ATS run against Pacific Division teams and they're on a 7-1 ATS run in their last eight against the Lakers. Meanwhile, L.A. is on a 7-17 ATS slide following a SU win and they have covered just 5 of their last 16 when playing with one day of rest. Last night's blowout win over Golden State provided Miami with plenty of rest for its key players. And I'm not "buying" the Lakers just because they beat Cleveland and Milwaukee. I'm grabbing the points with Miami, who look to go to 2-0 as an underdog this season. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night. The Hawks are mired in a slump that has seen them lose six of their last seven games both SU & ATS. However, with Larry Drew as coach, they are on a 25-8 ATS run after failing to cover five or six of their previous seven games. I don't normally back slumping teams, but I do look to back those teams if they hit "rock-bottom," suffering an embarrassing loss in their most recent contest. That's the case for ATL, who will be playing their first game since a 97-58 loss in Chicago on Monday night. Coach Drew has stated that changes will be made. "This was very, very embarrassing," Drew said. "We need to shake things up and that will be the first line of business when we get back to Atlanta is to make some changes within our lineup." His Hawks remain in second place in the Southeast Division, so getting back on track is something that should be expected. Tonight's opponent, the Brooklyn Nets are on a seven game win streak (5-1-1 ATS) and they're 9-1 SU in their last 10. While the coaching change is part of the reason for the run, the Nets have also benefitted from playing against some of the weaker teams in the NBA. The Nets have faced just three winning teams in their last 10 games (2-1 SU), getting detroyed by 31 points by the Spurs in one of those games. The fact is, the Nets are on a 2-11 SU slide (4-9 ATS) in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. And they're playing in their second of back-to-back nights, going just 3-8 ATS the 11 times they've been in this situation. I believe Atlanta's struggles finally bottomed-out on Monday and I'm betting they'll get back in the win column tonight. I'm laying the points with the Hawks on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.