Taking the COWBOYS. Look. This is a difficult call I get it. We look at Dallas, the offense has been terrible, Dak,terrible for a years worth of games. Why will that change now? Well. For me, I really like this spot today. We have the Lions coming in off their Super Bowl. Let's face it. They get humiliated on MNF Opening night. They show up with about a quarter to play in SF to make the score respectable. Then, the game their new HC is probably most worried about. Not the Bears. Or Packers. Or Minny.. No. New England. His former boss. A team that is the Apex predator of all teams. The most hated QB and HC and franchise in all of football. And he only just left a few month ago with all he knew about all his players. Wish I really thought about that more last week cause I would have unloaded ML on the home dogs. So where to go but down? Dallas is the desperate team now. They will be the ones pulling tricks out there pockets. They need to do something, and they need it done yesterday. I am also on this under 44. Because of the Cowboys said woes on offense. But I think this defense is pretty good. They will give Stafford from problems. I see this shaping up to be a 23-13 type of game. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking TAMPA here. I did a video way back in mid-July taking the Bucs in Week 1 over the Saints. Lo and behold not only did they roll the Saints, the come back vs the rested Super Bowl Champs and deliver another outright win as short dogs. Now they get the 0-2 desperate Steelers and again, an ever so slight home dog. I know Pitt needs this win. But this team is in turmoil right now. No Bell. Players calling out Bell. Bryant twitting about getting traded to prove he's good. That is a lot of off shield non-sense. Not to mention their on field play which hasn't been all that spectacular. Enter TB. I said I like FitzMagic behind center better than Crab Legs. Guy is a gritty vet. We saw him lead the Jets to some wins with his veteran presence and players around him. Same spot here. Jackson and Evans are good players with some time under their belts. Something to prove to nay-sayers. OJ Howard had 6 TDs last year. He's a good TE who I think should get to 10 TDs if Fitz is here the entire year. Just a whole different atmosphere in Tampa. Players saying if they are winning, Crabby shouldn't get the starter spot back. Give me the Bucs again. 5* Best Bet TAMPA BAY BUCS

Taking the PATRIOTS tonight. Not wasting any time getting down on this game. Will probably see some 7s by game time. Hate taking a public team like this, especially in an ESPN spot like this. But I can't fade Brady and Hoodie off a loss. Especially when we see Brady yelling at teammates. Pats don't lose many game a year. Losing to a tough defensive team like the Jags on the road is one thing. Them losing to this Lions team. Not likely. Ex DC faces mentor. Give me BB all day long. This Lions defense hasn't looked good in its first 2 games. Matt STATSford seems to be good only in garbage time. This game to me has 37-20 written all over it. 5* Best Bet NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the RAVENS early. Catching Denver in their first road game of the year. 1-9 ATS and SU last 10 on the road. Coming cross country. Off a last second win over the Raiders. We have extra rest. Broncos in my eyes, paper tigers. I think the Ravens are the better team. Plain and simple. Coaching edge in our favor. Defense should be able to contain Keenum. Denver held off a bad Seattle team. They need a miracle comeback vs a Raiders team that in its first 2 games, seem to only show up for 1st halves. No such luck today. 10* Money Bomb BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking the BROWNS. Yeah - You can say it is tough backing a team as a FG fave when they haven't won a home game since Dec 2016! We can say Cleveland could, or should be 2-0 if they had a decent field goal kicker. We can say with certainty that the Browns do have a good defense. And that my friends, is why we are rolling with Cleveland. Tough spot for a rookie QB, on the road, and a short week for the icing on top. Was also thinking about the Under but will just attack the small home fave and build our bankroll. 5* Best Bet CLEVELAND BROWNS 

Taking the GIANTS tonight. Last week we faded NY in our big GOW and cashed our 10* on the Jags. Well we are on the G-Men for Sunday night. One, I am a Cowboys fan. But I don't let teams I like blind me. Garrett has to go as HC. I have been saying this for the last few years. Anyone who has purchased plays gets a full run down on why he is a terrible coach. Like I said last week. I thought Coughlin would really fire up the players to avenge his firing. Tough spot for NYG against a very good defense. Dallas defense is ok, but nothing like the Jags. Eli has some players to help with ODB back and Barkley in the backfield. Can't count out the banged up Dallas OL. Giants never had problems generating pressure on Cowboy QBs. Dallas O in turmoil. Stacked Ds all year to shut down Zeke and force Dak to beat you with one of the worse WR groups in the league. Giants 5-2 ATS last 7 in the series. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the DOLPHINS here. Have to say. Had the Under in their Game 1. After a few weather delays, we got a shoot out. We did cash the Jets as a nice dog outright. But I think we our getting some value in this spot. Jets looked great. But let's be honest here. Rookie QB now making his second start. Every team looks bad in this division because the Patriots sit a the top. But I think Miami will toss some new wrinkles at the rookie. The defense isn't a bad unit. Offense is decent enough. Again, I think we have extra value based on the Monday night factor. 5* Best Bet MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking the VIKINGS. Rodgers plays, doesn't play. Wouldn't make much difference to me. Like I said last week in taking Minny. Best defense in football. Bears are pretty good. But GB gets another angry division foe. I think Minny is reppin' the NFC in the Super Bowl. I am not that high on Packers defense. Rodgers could be fired up. Vikes knocked him out of game last year on a 'cheap shot.' But we do know that Minny has no qualms about taking shots on the QB. And real fast to last week vs SF. A bit sloppy in the cover. But maybe they were just a tad more focused on this match-up instead. And as long as we are on last week. How about that comeback. Bears, whoever. down 20-0 3 minutes left in the 3rd? That is a lot of gas being used up in the tank. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Taking the STEELERS. Not going to over react to 5 TOs on the road and a tie at Cleveland. They could have, and probably should have won that game anyway. Now they are home. Big Ben totally different QB at Heinz field. Numbers back it up. Bell loss not the problem in their last game. KC will be in another shoot-out. Difference being, Pitt has a defense that can make stops. Back to back road games for KC. I think this is a 10pt win for the home team. 8* Sure Shot PITTSBURGH STEELERS 

Taking CAROLINA. Will grab the Panthers at this price. I like Dallas. Am a Cowboys fan. And they have much better ATS on the road than at home. But this team to me, isn't going to be that good. Unless a couple WRs really have huge years, this is a lost season. Load up the line, control Zeke, let Dak have one of his WRs beat you. That plays well into a good Panthers defense. Not a huge fan of Cam. But the guy has the weapons around him to get us the win and cover this afternoon. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking ARIZONA. Pretty sure everyone is sleeping on the Cards because of the QB play. But this team is not that bad. Always a solid defense. They have a very good RB to take the pressure off said QB play. I actually like the new HC. You know the defense will just as good or better than past editions. Not expecting what I saw in Pre-Season from ARZ. That is more to me. A new HC, guys playing hard all game. And other teams going through the motions. Will really have to work to get those kind of TOs from Washington. Redskins have their own new signal caller in Alex Smith. And he's a guy I have back with mixed results over his career. And also a guy who isn't in the habit of bad INTs. At this price, even against AP at RB, who might run angry since Cards cut him last year. Think we have enough to get the outright win this afternoon. 8* Sure Shot ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Taking the JAGUARS. Also like the Under in this game. But we are all in on Jax. First off. You don't think that Tom Coughlin has been telling these guys to stick to NYG on every play. The guy was run out of town and replaced by a joke of a coach. Jags were already miles ahead of the GMen in talent. Yes, they drafted a nice RB, signed some OL, have a healthy ODB. But do we really think Eli, a statue, is going to be able to buy some time and make something happen against this pass rush and secondary. Jags defense will dominate. The offense will do enough to win this by double digits. Coughlin gets revenge against a team he hoisted Super Bowl Trophies with and got a kick in the ass out the door as a thank you, while the crappy GM stayed on board. 10* Money Bomb JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Taking the BENGALS. Yeah, The Colts are 46-30 with Luck behind center. But did you see anything in his brief August games that say this is a guy ready to come under live fire? Bengals have missed the playoffs last 2 years. Marv clearly on the hot seat as many though he would be canned last year. We saw 53 points from these guys in Week 4 of pre-season! That is normally under territory. But we saw that the 'starters' for Cincy held a 20-7 lead at the half over the Colts. Look - Pre-Season doesn't matter much to me when the calendar says September. But Indy, I think has a long way to go with Luck getting up to speed with his new HC and the playbook. Cincy always has a tough defense. Daulton has some nice weapons. He can beat bad teams. This isn't Pitt or NE that he is battling. 5* Best Bet CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Going to lock in early here with the PATRIOTS. 5* Best Bet NE PATRIOTS 

Alright everyone. Thanks for the follow this year. Going to cap off a great NFL season with a final winner for our pockets. 40-14 good for 74% since December 1. In that time, 11-4 with our Top Plays. Best Bets, Sure Shots and Money-Bombs. But I am not going to put out a huge 'name' play, just because it is the final game of the year. This, as always, the longest write up of the year. Let's get to it - 

As a big dog guy, especially with NHL and MLB, almost by instinct, I am pulled towards Philly. And why not. One of those 4 Top Game losses was Philly over NYG. I like Foles. As I said in previous write-ups, and last weeks Over analysis. Do people forget 27 TDs from this kid a couple years ago. The guy can play in the NFL. Not saying he is Wally Pip'ing Wentz out of a job, or Brady Bledsoe'ing for the younger crowd. But he can play. And let's be completely honest. Eagles probably rate better overall across the board except for the QB position. Plenty of offense for Philly vs, at best, a middle of the road Patriots defense.

Yes. The Hoodie gets the, oh, Mr Adjustments. What a great defense. Come on. Bend don't break defense carried by the greatest QB/ HC combo of all-time. This total has already ticked up, and I still lean Over in this game. 

I am sure the sharps are going to be lying in wait. Seeing if the public comes heavy on NE as they normally do. Maybe we see 4.5 - Maybe we see 6.5. I am 2 weeks out with my play. When we grab dogs, like the Jags, we think they win outright. Which, maybe they should have. We will leave questionable play calling to the talking heads.

Back to NE. Look. I am not a huge Pats fan. I did have a Top 10* on them to roll the Titans. I took the +9.5 out of the gate in the Championship Game. As much as I see Foles getting better. I see Brady cementing a legacy, if he hadn't already. If this was Wentz/ Brady. I would probably be on the Eagles. But it isn't. These guys, at this stage, look for any slight, to come out and piss people off. So we have all heard of that story about the owner/coach/QB - Next game. Utter destruction of the Titans. What better way to really get under peoples skin and win b2b Super Bowls. Did anyone miss that Hoodie didn't even hold onto the AFC Championship Trophy? Is that crazy? That is all you need to know about this team. That is how focused they are. 

Philly will get everyone's love since they are facing the Evil Empire. The, We wear Dog Masks. No respect. I get it. House money. Back-up QB. Rally around the role. Understood. And that isn't all it has going for them. I think they have the much better defense. Special teams are probably a wash. Again, this is why I am liking the Over a bit also. Plenty of weapons for Foles. Dome setting should help. 

As much as there are checks to cross in the Philly box. I just can't go against this HC/QB combo in a Super Bowl. Brady has proven time and time again. Champion. Down 10. No problem. 28-3. No problem. Do we have to go back and see the stats vs the Legion of Boom? Do we remember how 'legendary' that Seattle defense was suppose to be? 13-15 2TDs in the 4th quarter as Seattle was for 2 straight Super Bowls. 

Maybe the Eagles are like the Giants. Getting pressure. Knocking Brady off his spot. Or. Brady gets the ball out and carves them up. I think the really underrated unit is the Patriots OL. These guys are quietly, a solid bunch. 

So. I am going PATRIOTS as a 5* BEST BET here in Super Bowl action. I think they get this done by a TD or more. 

My FREE PLAY is on the UNDER 48.5 -- 

Taking the VIKINGS. Real simple for me. One. We are rested. Two. We have the much better defense. Three. We have seen the last 2 weeks that New Orleans has had trouble stopping Tampa and Carolina. A pair of teams that are pretty generic with their offenses. - Now they face a Minny team that has a bunch of options for their QB to turn to. This is no knock on Brees. I just thin that their defenses injury and depth will catch up with on the road, and vs a team with probably the most under-rated HC in the league. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the PATRIOTS. I'll lay this beast. And try to keep my reasons brief. So Titans down 21-3 to KC. KC loses best player to take advantage of poor Tenn pass defense. Titans get, let's just say, a few calls in their favor. Won't get into detail. Safe to say that everything that needed to happen, happened. Enter the Pats. We are going to go against Hoodie? In a week where we see a problem between Brady, Kraft and Hoodie. It's mass chaos in New England. Coach vs Trainer vs Owner vs QB. Forget that nonsense. The defense has been an absolute monster down the stretch. Toss out those early games. 14ppg since. 'All in on Tennessee' - Belichick  10* Money Bomb NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the FALCONS today. You can grab the 2.5, but I will go 3 just to take back a little extra cash. So, we cashed on Atlanta last week. I am not sure why everyone is shocked they won. As I said. Against a rookie HC and basically, a rookie QB, I would take a veteran QB and HC playing with a chip, the size of a Super Bowl Trophy, on their shoulder. And what do they walk into here. Only an Eagles team that has been average at best. Now, I like Foles. In fact, I backed Philly over the Giants and while they won, they couldn't cover. Then we had that Monday night game vs the Raiders. Finally, the Nate Sudfeld game. Enter our Falcons. This isn't last years team. They are playing much better defense. The fact is, with no Wentz, this game is a toss up. ATL the fave really based on the QBs. Both defenses are pretty solid. And both teams can run the ball. I am just coming back to what they learned last year. Philly, like the Rams, are rolling the dice with house money, up-starts. Bright futures. Falcons on the other side of that. Veterans. Looking to redeem themselves. 5* Best Bet ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking the PANTHERS. So. We have the old, it's hard to beat a good time 3 times playing out. Saints won 34-13 and 31-21 this already this year. But it is January football. I am not a fan of Cam at all. But I like his legs and the rest of the RBs vs this depleted Saints defense. Not a lot of depth and they are missing 5 starters. We saw the Bucs march down the field last week as time was running out to score a win. On a side not, that TD sent it Over the total and we go 7-2 instead of a super 8-1. I just think that we have seen Carolina knock off the Pats and Vikes. A pair of pretty good teams. We cashed with the Falcons over these same Panthers. Everyone saying, oh Carolina has a lot to play for. Well what about Atlanta. They were playing for their season. (had them yesterday also) - Road team 23-10 ATS last 33 in the series. Underdog 6-1 ATS last 7 in the series. Panthers 0-6 ATS last 6 in the series. Something has to give. I am betting on Cam being 'Superman' and not 'Laptop Man' - 8* Sure Shot CAROLINA PANTHERS  

Taking the CHIEFS here. Man oh man with all these lines wild-card weekend. Normally I am shying away from near double digit faves come playoff time. But I see a pair of totally different teams. Yes. We cashed the Titans as our Top 10* Money Bomb last Sunday. But we don't fall in love with teams. We like numbers. Value. We started the season backing the Titans over the Raiders. And we will end their season fading them vs the Chiefs. KC a bit different now with their new OC calling plays. I just don't see Tennessee being able to hang close here. I think that KC gets a big edge on special teams that gets us this 10-14 pt win. 5* Best Bet KC CHIEFS 

Taking the TITANS. Not sure where the Jags motivation is? They are locked into the 3 seed. They host a home game. Even off that SF loss, I can't see them risking getting guys injured. Maybe they play a half. I had Tennessee last Sunday. Win and they are in. I'll back the small home fave. 10* Money Bomb TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking the FALCONS here. Man. All I am  hearing is talk about the Panthers. I know this isn't the same Super Bowl team as last year. The offense clearly not the same. I know Julio is banged up. But hell. It is Week 17. Playoff spot on the line. Time to man up. They win, they are in. They lose. And they need Arizona to beat Seattle. Just take care of business yourself. As for Carolina. They have some possible seed movement. Anywhere from 2-6. Not sure how they play it. They get down early, they might pull back. They just played a really tough game vs TB needed everything to win. Atlanta 7-2 ATS last 9 here at home vs Panthers. 5* Best Bet ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking the COWBOYS this afternoon. Tough laying with Dallas at home especially with their terrible HC. But we are getting a fresh and angry Zeke back. That is enough to move the needle for us to Dallas. This Seattle team is in turmoil. Giving up tons of points. 72 points allowed last 2 weeks! Defense players tweeting at each other. Wilson is a great QB. Guy, by himself, has this team still alive for the playoffs. Now, we have seen Dallas and their brain dead HC crumble with playoffs on the line before. But I can't undervalue the return of Elliot. That is a huge boost. Coming off a 35pt home loss, you expect Seattle to be angry. But the defense is a shell of its former self. My thinking. Zeke, fresh off his break, bullies Seahawks late and Dallas wins this by 10. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking ARIZONA. Simple thinking for me here. Giants mail it in here on Christmas Eve. The Eli show comes to an end at home, against rival Redskins. That is the game the Giants go all out. This has been a brutal year all around for NY. The coach. The QB. The WR. The defense. Everything. Good news is they will draft high. Last week they left it all on the field in a near win vs the Eagles. They can't get up like that again. Not a chance. Not 3 weeks in a row. Next week. We'll look to NYG. Both teams playing for pride. Final home game for the Cardinals. Give the fans an early Christmas gift with an easy win! 10* Money Bomb ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Taking the EAGLES. 9-1 ATS last 10 for Philly. Yes, they lost their QB. But Foles is no slouch. Guess people forget the guy had 27 TDs and 2 INTs back in 2013 in 13 games, 10 starts for these same Eagles. And right now, let's be honest. He is probably better than Eli. He has the better parts around him that is for sure. Really for me though is this. Giants are done. Last week would have been the game for them. New coach. Eli back. Home vs Cowboys. Nope. Doors blown off in the 4th. You can hear any life being sucked out of the building. 5* Best Bet PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 

Taking the VIKINGS. Two teams in total opposite directions. Cincy off getting smoked at home by the Bears. Where is there motivation? Their season was lost 2 weeks ago when they blew the game vs the Steelers. There will be, or least should be, a coaching change for the Bengals. Do we really think they rally around the coach? Time for a change from the top down. Minny home after 3 straight road games. Still have a lot to play for. I can't see their defense giving up more than 10-14 points today. 8* Sure Shot MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the CHIEFS here. Cashed big last week on KC. We will head back to them today. We also had the Chargers last week. We can toss out the trends. Chiefs 6-2 ATS last 8 but LAC 4-1 ATS last 5 in Kansas City. Andy Reid 17-7 ATS as home dog. 5* Best Bet KC CHIEFS

Taking the JAGUARS. Look. We cashed Seattle ML last week. But that was a home game. It was a totally disrespect game with a line starting at 6. This is a tougher game. First. Flying to the opposite coast. They get a break with a 4pm start. But they have a much bigger division game on deck vs Rams. And let's be honest here. This Jags defense is a beast. They will eat up this OL. Wilson will make a couple plays. But I think he is going to make a couple costly mistakes also. I think this is actually a 'statement' game for Jacksonville. They hear that Bortles is garbage and they can't win with him. I think they rally and show the league they are for real. We have to win by a FG not 2 TDs. 5* Best Bet JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Taking the CHIEFS this afternoon. We cashed the Jets last week over KC as we had a nice 6-1 of NFL action. I think we start off today just like last Sunday. Andy Reid handed over the reigns of the offense and Alex Smith aired it out for 4 TDs and 366 yards. We have revenge for that crazy 31-30 loss back in Oakland. Go youtube that ending. Tough for us KC backers. We know that the Chiefs have allowed more than 20 points once (21) in their last 11 home games. After a 5-0 start, the desperation is reaching a fever pitch. Remember that Oakland was in the same desperate hole on Thursday night. They were 2-4 having dropped 4 straight. Now the shoe is on the other foot. 8* Sure Shot KC CHIEFS 

Taking the SAINTS. Yeah, the win streak is over. But losing to the Rams was expected from me. This is their must win game. They already took care of Carolina on the road and went on a nice run. They win this one and they wrap up the division like an early Christmas gift. Panthers with a lucky cover last week. I think they are in for a battle today. Saints bringing a pretty good run game to counter Brees and his accurate arm. Granted, the NO defense is always leaky. But Cam can bring a clunker when times get tough. 10* Money Bomb NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the COWBOYS here. What a set up for us today. Are you kidding me. Down to a pk right now. Holy cow. Nothing like people betting on what they just saw. And what better for Chargers backers then seeing 54 points put up and Dallas getting crushed at home allowing 30 points in the 2nd half to Philly. Look. I like the Chargers. We have cashed with them a few times. Dallas looking lost with no Zeke the last 2 weeks. I have never liked Garrett. You can go through my write ups over the years about how he is a terrible coach. But this team is still pretty talented. As I write this, no word if Lee is suiting up for us. He is a huge key to the Boys defense. But again. It is about perception. Is LAC as good as what we saw, and is Dallas as bad? I don't think so. Thanksgiving short week. You damn well know the Cowboys will want to show the NFL World they are still 'America's Team' and going to make the playoffs. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the VIKINGS. I do like this Rams team. We have cashed them a few times already. But in this spot, I have to go Minny. I think their coach is just better right now. That is not a knock by any means on the youngster on the LA sideline. But I think this defense will rattle the Goff this afternoon. Again. I am not knocking the Rams or their defense. They have an old dog in Phillips calling things that will trip up boy Case for sure. That being said, this should be a very good game. Rams 117-24 their last 3 games. But beating up on the Texans with Savage at QB and nary a defense to field and dropping a pitiful Arizona team 33-0 at home is nice for the fantasy fans. Let's not overlook Minny putting up a respectable 95 points their last 3 games, 2 on the road. So we can score a bit. As hot as the Rams have been, they are due for a market adjustment. I think it comes this afternoon. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the BILLS. They cost us last Thursday against the Jets. What a clunker. Holy cow. But. I still like the defense. I still like offense. And I will never stop liking fading dome teams in Buffalo. Saints a different team out of the dome. Brees a bit different in the elements. If you get lucky, you might be able to get a better number than this. I think the public will be on NO as they have been very good the last month. But I am on the dog and will probably come in a little ML also. 5* Best Bet BUFFALO BILLS 

Taking SEATTLE this afternoon. Redskins in off b2b division losses to Eagles and Cowboys. Now they have to head to one of the toughest places to play. Can't think it as an easy task. Washington is very banged up. I know everyone gets injury in the NFL. But the 'Skins are really hurting on their OL. Seattle on the flip side of things just picked up some huge OL help for their QB. Just think we have 2 teams heading in opposite directions. 5* Best Bet SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

Taking the TITANS here. Now these guys have given me fits this year. I really thought they would be an improved club. I had them in Game 1 against Oakland. I really thought this offense would be a ground and pound type unit with a decent defense to fall back to. I still like the run game. I don't like the Ravens at all. I had Miami against the Ravens and was smashed. But that I think has more to do with the state of the Dolphins. This Baltimore team is still a banged up unit. Flacco has some extra rest, but we could easily see Mallet here. And to be honest, I think that is a better option if you like the Ravens. Flacco has been bad. 8 INTs and 6 TDs. I think the combo of Murray and Henry is the difference and wears down this Baltimore front. 8* Sure Shot TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking the COWBOYS here. Simple in my thinking here. Dallas just better. Dak is having another solid campaign. Yeah, they are only 3-3. But they are in much better shape than the Redskins who have dropped both division games already. They are in better shape health wise. They obviously have a little better OL and rush game which I think will be the difference maker today. I am going ML here as this line is bouncing around a bit. I have never been a fan of Jason Garrett. And as long as he doesn't do something stupid, Cowboys should walk away with a relatively easy win. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the SAINTS today. Never a fan of laying big numbers like this. But in the back of my head, I hear, Pick the Winner. And when I do that, I see the Saints comfortably by double digits today. Bears won last week throwing 7 passes. Come on. What a terrible performance by Cam and the Panthers. Yes, Bears extremely tough at home. Should have beat the Falcons. Beat the Steelers and Panthers and losing a tough one to the Vikings. They scored an OT win over a beat up Ravens team, but I see blow-out losses at Tampa and Green Bay. Drew Brees is a pretty good QB. He seems reborn so far. The trading of AP helps balance the rush attack and take some pressure of the old timer. I just think John Fox has babied Mitch a bit too much lately. Because if they fall behind here and it is 10-14-17 to 0-3.. You need the rook to start chucking. Tough spot in the dome for a rookie QB against a team that sees it's opening in the division, and now the conference with Rodgers down. Could be the swan song for Brees and Payton. Big game for Nawlans. 5* Best Bet NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the CHARGERS today. I know it would be easy to fade these guys coming east to face the Pats. But Rivers has always played NE tough. Let's be honest here. I am not sold on the NE defense being 'fixed.' Shutting down the Falcons who they stymied last in the Super Bowl and then did it the entire game last Sunday says more about Atlanta then NE. That Falcons staff is in trouble but that is a whole other story. Ryan was the only QB who hasn't thrown for 300 yards vs this defense. Oh, Rivers will get his yards. He has some toys to play with. They also have a couple pass rushers in Bosa and Ingram. 4* Money Maker LA CHARGERS 

Taking the BENGALS today. Might even put some +200 ML down on this puppy. I know that Cincy looked bad early. But I think this is a different team since the OC change. I think Mixon has a big day today. This Bengals team isn't afraid to go toe to toe with the Steelers. And what is Pitt anyway? Yeah, we cashed them last week over KC. But they have had the Chiefs number lately. Can someone explain the Jags game? I had Pitt. Jags 3rd straight road game. Figured they were out of gas. And they maul Pitt and have Big Ben talking retirement again. Cincy off their bye week so there is zero lack of focus. I just think they are trying to sucker us in with this line. We've seen 1 line over 3 just once in the last 10 meetings. Still on the dogs though. 8* Sure Shot CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the RAMS here. Ok. So we are in London. Rams coming from Florida, while Arizona is flying, what, a quarter the way around the world. That can't be helpful. I guess everyone is loving the Cards since AP had a big debut. I am not sold. I think the Rams have a better defense than the Bucs. Rams played in England last year so they have a bit of an edge as to what expect. I like the Rams new staff. The offense is much improved. The defense getting better by the week under Wade Phillips. Gurley should have a nice game for us also. Again. Palmer will be on the run much of the game. Not sure what to expect from AP. I mean, he easily could have left it all on the field to prove he can still play. Not jumping on the Arizona train for sure. Short line on a neutral field seems right to me. Even turning the ball over 5 times to Seattle this team had a chance to win. They're scrappy. I'm in. 5* Best Bet LA RAMS 

Taking the VIKINGS this afternoon. Rolling large on Minny. And why wouldn't we. First. Flacco is having a terrible year. 4 TD and 8 INTs in his 6 games so far this season. Last time I checked, Vikes bring a very solid defense to the table. In fact, they have allowed just 2 300 yard passers their last 22 games. They lost by 3 in OT at home last week to the Bears. They needed 2 huge special team TDs (96KO 77Punt) to even get to OT. I am just taking Zimmer here as the coach. The guy gets the most out of his players. The defense alone should help us get 10-13 points off of TOs and field position. 10* Money Bomb MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the PANTHERS today. I know it is easy for me to say let's grab the Bears. We have cashed with them here at home a couple times already. But I think this a flat spot off that OT road win last week. Panthers in licking their wounds from a Thursday night clunker. Something tells me people are overreacting a bit on Chicago. I like their run game, but I think Cam and the Panthers offense puts some points up today. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking the BRONCOS tonight. Big number for sure. But when I first look at a game I say this to myself. Who wins this game? If you win, you are more than likely covering. If I like a dog, I am not saying to myself.. Man.. Can't wait to catch the back door. I am thinking we win outright. Are the Giants winning outright tonight? Toss out the line. Look at the state of these 2 teams, and franchises as a whole. Giants at 0-5 just lost to a team that was 0-4 with a rookie HC on their own field when for all intention purposes this was a 'circle the wagons' 'must win' any analogy type game. NYG lost their best offensive weapon in ODB for the year. Their other WRs are also hobled. Hello No Fly Zone Denver defense. No rush attack for the G-Men to take pressure off Eli. Broncos in off of a bye week. Do we not think Von Miller and company are licking their chops waiting to face this OL? Denver destroyed the Cowboys. Giants not as good as Dallas and sure as heck aren't built to make a comeback or keep the Denver offense off the field. It is Tuesday, but I am saying we see Geno Smith playing at least a half on Sunday night. 5* Best Bet DENVER BRONCOS 

Taking the PATRIOTS today. I get that NE has 2 losses. Heading into Thursday night, the 2 teams that beat the Pats were a combined 9-1. Now we are suppose to believe in the Jets who beat Jay Cutler who was retired 2 months ago, and Blake Bortles and the Jags back from London at home. And hold off a Browns team that fumbled at the NY 7 and was picked off at the NY 2, missed a chippy FG attempt. I liked Tampa on Thursday thinking the Pats couldn't correct their defense on a short week. Well both teams played poorly, but TB needed a miracle late for a cover and to generate anything offensively. I can not see Team Hoodie showing up for this game, with extra rest, and tied. TIED with this Jets team and not coming out with a 20pt win. Brady is doing Brady things. He is going to get his 24 regardless of what kind of team he faces. 63-20 last years 2 games. I know Pats have Falcons on deck. But does that really mean as much to NE who won when it counted? I can't see them playing half-ass because the Jets were suppose to go 0-16 and suck for Sam. This team needs a huge game from both sides of the ball. This line is 9 and I would feel comfortable at 19. If Josh McCown keeps this games close, then the HC should be thinking of finding a new DC at the very least. 8* Sure Shot NE PATRIOTS 

Taking the CHIEFS here. We scored a miracle cover on Monday night with these guys. I know it is a short week. I know it is another prime time spot for KC. But these guys just continue to win. What really gets me though is this. People talk about that crazy cover. I get it. But KC had already a regular W all but wrapped up. People are really talking about the Texans, or any NFL team for that matter, dropping 57 points in a game. 57! Now. I like Watson. I said when he was drafted the kid can play. I mean, you do what you do against Alabama in b2b Championship games with NFL talent against you, you can play in this league. Guy is a great leader. I just think the 57 is really giving KC the value here. They had 4 INTs last week against Mariota and Cassell. 3 put you on on Ten side of the field and the 4th was ran back for a TD. Plus a fumble recovered inside the red-zone. Those are gifts. You can't count on that helping your ROOKIE!! QB every week.  KC 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road. 5* Best Bet KC CHIEFS

Taking the COWBOYS today. We cashed big last week as the Rams won outright for us. But we will head to Dallas on the home today this afternoon. Looks like we get Lee back on defense. Huge. Guy is a key piece for the 'Boys. I know their defense is nothing special. And Rodgers is at the top of the QB food chain. But his line is still pretty banged up. And unlike recent Dallas editions, this defense actually has a guy getting QB sacks. (Demarcus Lawrence 7.5) In their only road game, Falcons ripped GB for 141 yards. I think Zeke is excited about this game. Cowboys also with that playoff home revenge loss fresh in their memory. Bye week next week for Dallas. GB has division opponents on deck. Off home loss to Rams, I expect a very focused effort from the Pokes. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking CINCY here. We had a monster play on the Bengals against the Packers and just missed out an outright win. At home vs the Bills who are off a pair of big wins themselves. Well this is a no brainer. New OC looks to be paying off so far for Cincy. We can't forget this is a playoff caliber team. We do forget that in August the Bills traded guys and people said rebuild. They were out-gained last week in Atlanta. They had a slug fest at home vs Denver. Now Cincy is feeling good off a beat down of the Browns. I think this can be a flat spot for Buffalo. Bengals defense not to shabby. 3 of 4 teams under 20 points (Packers). As I said. Cincy in off cake wake. Bills off another slug fest. 11 minute 4th quarter drive? Bengals win by double digits. 10* Money Bomb CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the CHARGERS here. Man this team knows how to lose but we are on them as a Best Bet today. Eagles off huge last second win over hated Giants. Now come cross country to face a win-less and dangerous team. I think the Chargers have a big edge with Rivers going against this Eagles secondary. Think we have an edge at QB too. Eagles will have a hard time running the ball vs Bosa and this defense. A lot of pressure on Wentz to shoulder the load here. They couldn't get a sack last week vs the Giants and that OL and needed a desperation 61 yard FG to win. I think they are in trouble today. Philly 2-8 SU last 10 on the road. 10* Money Bomb CHARGERS 

Taking the RAMS here. We scored a nice back-door last Thursday with the Niners over these Rams. But, with extra prep time and the Cowboys off a MNF win (we had ARZ), we are fading away. Dallas has bad home ATS numbers. We know this. I should have put this out when we could have gotten more points earlier in the week. But honestly, I won't be shocked if the Rams have a shot to win this one outright. Dallas defense do not impress me. This Rams team can take advantage of the Cowboys secondary. Rams defense will get pressure on Dak. Dallas OL is not the same as last year. I think Zeke has put on a few pounds is not running the same. So the 'Boys 0-2 ATS on short rest last year. 0-3 ATS short rest in 2015. 0-2 ATS short rest in 2014. And 0-2 ATS short rest in 2013. You know what hasn't changed in that time. The HC. 8* Sure Shot LA RAMS 

Taking the JAGUARS today. Had Jax in blow-out fashion last Sunday, and will back them again on the road. Any other team coming home from London (Baltimore) without a bye and I am fading you. But not in this case. Jags have been a London team for years and will continue to be so. The players are accustomed to the travel. Plus. This is NY. Not a terrible flight home. And by crushing the Ravens they essentially took the 2nd half off. Jags impressive on the road so far crushing 2 defenses that were suppose to be pretty good in Texas and Baltimore. Their defense is not getting the respect it deserves. They will ground and pound and hope Bortles doesn't do something stupid. Let's not forget that Doug Marrone, after quitting the Bills, thought he was getting the NYJ job only to be turned away. A little extra motivation for the players to rally behind their coach. Jets with a big win last week to upset their fans who wanted an 0-16 season. But I think Jags a bit more talented even with Bortles more TO prone than McCowen. NY still lacking talent. 5* Best Bet JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Taking the BENGALS. yeah baby. Hold that nose as we grab this stinky diaper. Cincy have yet to score a TD in their 2 home game losses. Packers figure to be in a foul mood after the Falcons crushed them again. I saw a stat that Marvin Lewis is 17-3-2 ATS as an underdog vs NFC teams. Are you kidding me! That alone should at least get you a moving a bit on Cincy. Ok- So I get thinking the Pack roll at home. Last year they won by 7,7,16,8,18,13, -38 (playoffs) at home. Plus a 14 point loss to Dallas and 5pt loss to the Colts. Bengals seem to have a decent defense. It's not like it hasn't performed well this year, or in the past. They gave up more than 24 points just 4 times last year. Just think this is a big number to lay for GB. Trying to not weigh their injuries too much, but it can't help their cause. Finally. At 0-2, canning their OC and their HC on the very hot seat. This is a season breaker for the Bengals. They need to put up 24+ points and if they do that they have the chance at an outright W this afternoon. 10* Money Bomb CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Taking the BILLS here. I think Buffalo wins this one outright. I nearly made this my Game of the Week. First off. Every square will be on Denver and this line will probably move by game day. They see the Broncos drop 40+ on the Cowboys and think this is a juggernaut offense. Same people who cashed with Dallas over the Giants and missed New York not do a darn thing at home vs the Lions. The Cowboys have a bad defense and can't play catch-up. Team isn't built that way. Bills with another solid defensive game. Who cares if it was against the Jets and Panthers, who I think are in for a long year with Cam behind center. Taylor is underrated behind center. This team even with their trades still is fielding a talented, and competitive team. This is Denver's first road game and it is an early start time. They have the Raiders on deck. We have 2 teams with drastic outcomes last week. 42 points for Denver at home. Bills with 3 points on the road. #BillsMafia let's get it ! - 8* Sure Shot BUFFALO BILLS 

Taking the JAGUARS here. Want to go +170 in the ML as well. But last week that hurt us as the Colts covered after blowing the lead, but our ML play went down in flames. I'll stick to the 'easier' win with the points. For me, this is about the Jags defense. They were terrible in the 2nd half last week. They were fantastic in Game 1. Ravens lose another OL and Flacco is a statue. I know the Ravens have a solid defense. Cincy ended up firing their OC, so maybe it was more Bengals than Ravens. And then they get the Browns would couldn't get in the back door. Bortles is no elite QB. So they are dealt another favorable schedule spot. I just think their own offense is as bad or worse. Can't see laying with them on the road. 5* Best Bet JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Taking the FALCONS tonight. It is easy to grab Rodgers and the Pack with double revenge from last year. 33-32 win for Atlanta, then a blistering 44-21 beat down in the NFC Championship Game. That game was 31-0 before GB did anything. Now, Falcons in off a game they should have lost to the Bears. (We cashed the home pups) But that was a walk-through wake up call. GB (who we also cashed) had a tough physical game vs Seattle. After playing the Seahawks, teams always have a tough time. Now the Falcons open up a new billion dollar stadium. I know they have a new OC. But the offense will be able to move on the Pack. The defense is what is so improved for Atlanta. Pack lost to Minny, the Redskins and Titans on the road last year. That is what happens without a RB to help your All-Word QB. They still don't have a RB. I think ATL wins this one by double digits. 8* Sure Shot 

Taking the RAMS this afternoon. Had these guys last week and had them at + points since we were way ahead of the curve knowing in August that there was no chance Luck was playing at least until October regardless of what was coming out of Indy ahead of time. This one comes down to coaching for me. And the Rams new HC just happened to be the OC in Washington the last 3 years while their LB coach was the Redskins DC for the last 2 years. Safe to think that they will have a slight idea to what each player across the field brings to the table. I think the LA has a better defense with wiz Wade Phillips at the helm. I like that they aren't having Goff do anything crazy. The Skins turned the ball over 4 times last week which makes the loss look worse. Just as the Rams getting some points on defense inflate their final. Washington still lost a pair of 1000 yard receivers. Cousins will have to find his comfort receiver. Goff seems to have found his in Cupp. I really can't see LAR HC McVay overlooking this game. In fact, I would say this is the game his team will be really pumped for, while someone losing to a 49ers bunch next week. 10* Money Bomb LA RAMS 

Taking the DOLPHINS this afternoon. Short week as they were Game 2 of the MNF double header. Then we take into account they flurry of action to get them to the point of them missing out on tying the game. That will take a toll on the body. Now they face a rested Miami team. And they have division rival, KC Chiefs on deck. I know it is there home opener. But really. In LA? What kind of crowd will be here? I am not worried about Cutler. Guy looked pretty good in preseason against the Eagles. He is familiar with the system. That is why he is here not Kap. No team is signing that guy to revamp an offense for him. Not happening. Cutler has some decent toys to play with. Love Thomas at TE. Landry can stretch things out. A capable RB behind him. Plus, what I feel is the better defense. 5* Best Bet MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking the GIANTS here. Look. I like the Cowboys. I am a Dallas fan. But I am not sold on this defense at all. The offense is fluid, no doubt. But I believe that the NY defense is the best in this division. Cowboys of a great year. Better than anyone expected after Romo went down. Part of me wants to just grab the GMen at +170 and forget the points. I will sprinkle some on that but cash by taking the points as the easier money. 8* Sure Shot NY GIANTS 

Taking TENNESSEE here. Everyone and their grandmother will be on the Raiders. In fact, the public loves them yet the line has flipped from +2 to as high as -2 in some spots. Raiders had a great run last year. The were catching lighting in a bottle most of the year. Do we forget Week 1 TD and 2pt conversion with under a minute left on the road to beat the Saints? The scored with a little over 2 minutes left to beat Baltimore. They won in OT over Tampa after a TD with under 2 to play. A pair of nail-biters over the Chargers. I know Carr broke his leg, but these guys got a lot of breaks last year. Like Alabama scoring a dozen defensive TDs last year, there will be a regression here. Titans are a solid bunch. Everyone loves the Texans to win this division. I say Tennessee takes it. 5* Best Bet TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking the TEXANS here. Only thing going through my head right now is how the Saints beat the Falcons in Game 1 after Hurricane Katrina. Blocked punt for New Orleans in that one. But I expect to see a defensive TD for JJ Watt and friends. Fact is, Bortles in 0-6 vs the Texans. He hasn't done much. He nearly lost his job to Chad Henne this August. Yes, they drafted a stud RB. Yes, the defense is a decent unit and facing Tom Savage. I will be really honest with ya. Before Harvey arrived, I was eyeing up these Jaguars. The aforementioned QB issues. The fact they are 2-22 SU L24 as road dogs, 1-10 SU (4-7 ATS) L 11 roadies. 24-21 and 21-20 wins last year for the Texans. Just think with high emotions, and this defense, they win this one by 10. 10* Money Bomb HOUSTON TEXANS 

Taking the PATRIOTS tonight. I could probably make a case for KC. But I really like them more next week. Extra prep time for Andy Reid facing his old club. Eagles at Arrowhead, that will be a big game for the HC. Plus, they have division rival SD on deck. Patriots are the Patriots. Brady will do his thing. The loss of Edelman will be felt. Will it? This team continues to plug pieces on both sides of the ball and wins. Wins Big! Chiefs lost their best RB in preseason. WR Maclin is also gone. Poe and Howard were a big force on the DL. Can't see Alex Smith getting into a shootout with Brady. This should be a 10-16 point win for NE. 5* Best Bet NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the FALCONS here. Should really just go +140 ML, but I will take whatever points I can get with this high powered offense. So I can have a huge drawn out story as to why I like Atlanta. But let's keep it simple. Pats in their 7th Super Bowl in 15 years. Let's see. NE 20 STL 17  .. NE 32 CAR 29 .. NE 24 PHI 21 .. NYG 17 NE 14 ... NYG 21 NE 17 .. NE 28  SEA 24 ... I see some close games here people. And as much as teams change, this one doesn't. It is still lead by the same HC and QB. So we are getting a close game. I think we will see a lot more Blount from NE than people think. They need to keep their defense off the field, because Matty Ice will torch them. We hear about how NE didn't face any good offenses on the year, but they showed up to slow down the Steelers. Well, as we cashed with NE I noted Big Ben's terrible road splits. Add in they lose their super RB and the game plan is out the window and Pitt is in trouble. Nobody has respected the Falcons all year. The public probably jumps on them with us, since everyone hates Brady. Dan Quinn's defense is the difference. It has been improving all year and is on top of it's game right now. The highest total in Super Bowl history makes it an easy UNDER play for me. Seeing 59, 59.5s right now. Like I said. I expect more of a rush attack here. Long drives. But we will be taking the Dirty Birds to end a miracle season. 10* Money Bomb ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking the FALCONS here. Here comes the team nobody is talking about. Well. We cashed them huge last week as a Top 10, and will do it again this afternoon. Let's be honest here. Cowboys really should have won last week. If they have a real coach, that game isn't close. But their HC again gets his butt handed to him in the playoffs. Can we get off that Romo is a choke artist. The play calling cost Dallas again. That being said. I expect something totally different here with Atlanta. Their coach will unleash their best weapon, Ryan to Jones to destroy a putrid GB secondary. Falcons run game isn't chopped liver either. I get that Rodgers getting points is a nice option. But against a team, a HC, and a QB that is a veteran squad, it will be a different ballgame. Atlanta defense isn't all that bad either. I am not saying we won't see a shoot-out here. I am liking this over right now at 60.5. But this Atlanta team has been the group that nobody saw coming. We heard about the Giants defense taking them to the Super Bowl. The Seattle play-off magic. The resurgent Cowboys with a dynamic rookie duo. But nothing about the Dirty Birds. That will change as they head to Houston for Super Bowl 51 - 10* Money Bomb ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking the CHIEFS here. So we have KC basically a PK here at home. Steelers throttled them back in Week 4 to the tune of 43-14. They abused the Dolphins so bad, PETA is looking into animal cruelty chargers against Pitt! I had Miami as a free play and the game was not ever close. Steelers completely dominated. Brown with 2 TD catches, 50 and 62 yards. Bell rumbles for 167 and is still carrying tacklers to the airport. And yet, this line is Pk, -1 maybe depending when you are getting this play. Steelers have a prolific attack without a doubt. But they just beat, basically a journeyman QB and a team from Miami playing in 15 degree weather. KC is 23-5 their last 28 games. Steelers blew them up at Heinz Field. But their 3 other losses were 19-12, 19-17, 19-17. I like Mike Tomlin as a HC. But give me Andy Reid with an extra time any day of the week. They can say whatever they want, but we all know they have been planning to face the Steelers since the season ended. Huge revenge game. Home field. And they have probably the key X-factor of both teams in rookie return man Tyreek Hill. 5* Best Bet KC CHIEFS 

Taking the FALCONS here. I have to be honest. I think this team has been the most under the radar squad in the NFL this year. Them and probably KC. How are people over looking this offense? I have been on them a couple times, faded them like in their finale against the Saints (moneybomb winner). This team has really taken a huge step on the defensive side of the ball under Quinn. I'll come back to Atlanta in a second. On to Seattle. Look. We cashed them as a Best Bet last week. But we had them at home, with the world on the Lions and Stafford and his bum finger injury. Dome teams playing in the elements, especially against a team like Seattle, in that stadium. It was really no-brainer in the Seahawks or nothing. Falcons have been putting up some crazy points this year. It will be tough here in their dome. Seattle I think, will have a big problem in their secondary. Tough trying to duplicate the production and what Earl Thomas brings to the field. Julio Jones went for 139 in Seattle (I had Seattle. ATL off big home win over Car, then road win at Denver). Richard Sherman wasn't exactly the best CB in the league that day. And now he is missing some big help with Thomas out. Seattle went 3-4-1 on the road this year. Lost 9-3 to the Rams. 14-5 to the Bucs. Tied Arizona 6-6. Lost at NO 25-20. Lost at GB 38-10. Look at the points they scored. Or should I say didn't score. I will say they beat the Jets 27-24. Beat SF 25-23. Beat Patriots 31-24. They played a near perfect game last week. Can't expect that every week. Especially in the playoffs. Falcons offense, like our Packers 10* Winner over the Giants last week, will be the difference maker. 10* Money Bomb ATLANTA FALCONS

Taking the PACKERS here. How can we go against a red hot A-A-Ron here at home? Pack have won 6 straight making good on the 'we'll run the table' guarantee. Enter the NY Giants who will be playing their 3rd straight road game. Granted. The defense looked good last week with a must win game for Washington. But wasn't it just the week before they lost on the road to a rookie QB in Philly when they themselves could have locked up a playoff spot with a win? Rodgers has been torching defenses lately to the tune of 18TDs and 0 picks the last 7 games. Giants defense has been very good, and I can't throw any knocks their way. But Green Bay put up 38 on Seattle and Minnesota here in December. Those teams aren't weak on the defensive side of the ball. Nor can I throw out the 31 they put up on the Lions on the road. Look. Prior to Detroit getting rolled by Dallas on Monday night, they had given up 20 or more points Once in their last 8 games. And a final thought here on the Giants offense. That was suppose to carry the team. But it has been pedestrian all season. Who expects them to turn it on here in January after 4 full months of football. The line is short because of the way the Giants defense has been playing. I just can't go against a decent GB defense that handled these guys in October allowing 220 yards in that game and being up 23-9 before a late ODB TD pass from Eli. The Giants offense isn't better. 10* Money Bomb GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking SEATTLE here. I get it. I know how you can grab the points here. Lions seem to be in every game. Believe me. Last week we had them and I wrote about the close losses. But I just do not like this spot for them. First. Dome team playing outside. And outside in one of the toughest stadium. Do we add that temps will be near 30 with a chance of rain or snow? I will be the first to say I have been down on Seattle all year. But I think they play angry here. Last home game they were blitzed by Arizona. Lions look like they have run out of steam the last 3 weeks. Both teams have limped to the finish line. But this line screams to take the points with the way Seattle has been playing. The public last saw Seattle barely beating SF. Something tells me Pete Carroll gets his troops playing perfect ball tonight. 5* Best Bet SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

Taking the SAINTS here. I know Atlanta is playing for that 2 seed. But I think there is way too much pride on the other side lines here. Getting to 8-8 is a big deal. No way Brees and Payton want a 3rd straight 7-9 season. New Orleans 6 of 8 losses have been by 1,3,6,2,3 and 5. And we get a points like this with Brees and the #1 offense. +290 Dog Outright in play here. 10* Money Bomb NEW ORLEANS SAINTS  

Taking the JAGS here. Appears all these guys needed was new coach on the sidelines. Colts will mail it in with nothing to play for here. While Jax players need to show ownership and whatever HC will be taking over, that they are quitters. 5* Best Bet JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Taking TAMPA here. Part of me says take Carolina as they will be playing for pride and yada yada yada. Super Bowl team out of the playoffs, that type of motivation. But I can't overlook the injuries here. I know all teams are banged up. But I think the Panthers mail it in here. Bucs have the slimmest of shots at the playoffs. Honestly, for them to make it, they need a real miracle. But you figure with no pressure they win it going away here. In front of a home crowd, I think getting to 9-7 is a big deal. 5* Best Bet TAMPA BAY 

Taking DENVER and grabbing the +160 here. We had the Broncos at home blowing a game vs these guys on Sunday night. Well, what better gift than revenge here on Christmas night. KC 2-8 ATS last 10 home games. Denver out yarded this group by 200 yards and blew an 8pt lead with 12 seconds to go. Not happening here. Denver defense should again corral Smith and I am expecting the Broncos offense to score us a low scoring outright win. 5* Best Bet DENVER BRONCOS 

Taking the SAINTS here. A little revenge game for Brees and New Orleans. Tampa kept Drew out of the end zone 2 weeks ago, but he is in off a monster game against Arizona. Like my Titans/Jags write up. How do know what Tampa does here? They haven't been in must win games in years. Final home game for Brees. It could be his final home game for the franchise. Heck, their HC could be ousted at the end of the year. Something tells me that Brees and the boys have one more big game left in the bag. 8* Sure Shot NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the PACKERS here. Oh how the times have changed. Vikes started 5-0. I know I can't take last weeks loss to the Colts (we had Minny) as a main reason to like GB, but you can't be happy with the total play of the Vikings. The OL is still a mess. The defense can't bail you out every game. And let's be honest here. Minny was a dome team for a long time even though they play outdoors now. So in Green Bay, the advantage grows with Rodgers behind center. And what about A-A-Ron. Guy has pulled the Pack off the trash heap and primed for a playoff spot. This is one of those spots that Green Bay excels at. Taking advantage of a floundering team. 10* Money Bomb GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking the BROWNS here and grabbing +210 on ML. This is it for Cleveland. Road trip at Pitt next week who will probably be in some kind of playoff positioning game. So here it is. San Diego, on the road, cold weather and elements. Rivers tosses more INTs late in the season than anyone I can remember. We know that the Browns are going to show heart here. Nobody wants to go win-less. I think that the Mike McCarthy HC era will be coming to an end. This team is 9-21 their last 30. Where is the motivation for them? At least Cleveland is playing its final home and will want to get that W for them. 5* Best Bet CLEVELAND BROWNS 

Taking the BEARS and going ML +155. We cashed with Carolina on MNF over these Redskins. Now they are really backed into a corner where they need to win and get help. Bears have been competitive with Barkley behind center. So MNF, now on the road, on a Saturday vs a team being led by a guy who is out to prove himself. Live dog for me here. 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS

Taking the BILLS here as my NFL GAME of the YEAR - Right off the bat we have Rex Ryan coaching for his job and questions around QB Tyrod Taylor. Rex is a players coach, and his players will go all out here in their final home game. We have the fact that the 3 years here in Buffalo, the Bills won by 16 (33-17), 19 (29-10) and 19 again (19-0). Are we really sold on Matt Moore for 2 solid road games in division play coming off the bench? The truth is, Miami can lose this and face a NE team that is already locked into 1 bye seed in cozy Miami next weekend. Favorite is 8-3 ATS in this series last 11. Miami 2-5 ATS last 7 vs Bills and 0-4 ATS here in Buffalo. 10* NFL GOY BILLS 

Taking the RAVENS here. Tough spot for us off that MNF push. But Baltimore is a veteran team with a very good coach, so I think they take care of the sliding Eagles here. We have a very good defense vs a team that is 2-8 their last 10 games. 2-8! Remember all the talk of the new Philly defense and their QB. Well the rookie has 14 turnovers his last 8 games. Eagles have failed to score more than 15 in 3 of their last 4 games. They face an angry BLT squad that boasts one of the best defenses in the league. In off that loss, with bitter rival Pitt on deck, Ravens can't afford a slip off. A loss and they are out of the playoffs. This is a playoff game for them. 10* Money Bomb BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking TENNESSEE here. One of the few positives from the year for us was our call on these guys. This is a solid team. They aren't sexy in today's fantasy league style of play. They are ugly and pound you death. As I said on my Thursday podcast, all KC does is win. Win win and win some more. But they are 2-7 ATS last 9 at home, and Mariota looks like he is putting it together with 21TD and 3 INTs his last 10 games. 5* Best Bet TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking the RAVENS here as my GOW. Look. This Baltimore team always plays the Patriots hard. They have proven they can win up here in the playoffs. They aren't afraid of Brady. The defense is the real deal. They are coming on when it counts. Flacco can do enough to keep it close here. They have a solid FG kicker who can kick in the elements. So no Gronk. A banged up Bennett. A banged up Brady. Ravens finally looking healthy. I'll grab the points here. 10* Money Bomb BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking DALLAS here. Were done in again with a late score that cost us a cover last week. I don't want to hear about how the Giants won in Week 1. A totally different Dallas team coming to town tonight. First. We are in with extra rest. Always a plus, especially in mid-December. Giants didn't face this offense. Oh, they saw a little Elliot and glimpses of Dak. But we are way past Game 1 and the Dallas OL is a well-oiled machine making this offense one of the leagues best. The bend don't break defense lives up to that exact billing. Losing JPP is a painful loss for the GMen. They will need to find someone else to step up and generate some pressure on Dak. Nothing has changed for me about NY. Their run game is suspect. It is ODB or nothing in the air. The DL will struggle here. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the BEARS here. I see from 7.5 up to 8.5s in some spots, and even a 7 or to. Look. It is an ugly Sunday of dogs for me for sure. One. I like my dogs. And we had been close to 60% before the last week's horrible 1-7 day of sides and totals. That being said. That is one day. We are going to get back on track as we always done season after NFL season. So, nobody giving Chicago a shot here. All I hear is revenge game for the Lions. We have talked about on my podcast how Detroit seems to rally in the 4th. The back-door should be wide open for a late cover here. Also, we can't discount that Detroit home games have been decided by  1-1-3-3-7-3 points this year. 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS 

Taking the TITANS here. Tell me you had Tennessee favored over the defending Super Bowl champs here? I faded Denver last week off that KC game and they scored late to crush my bankroll. I will do it again here. I know the Broncos have a pretty good defense, but I think they favor a more pass happy team, then the power run game that the Titans will use. Tennessee with the edge at QB regardless who starts for Denver. Coming out of their bye week, this is a perfect spot for us to jump on the home team. 8* Sure Shot TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking the BILLS here. So we have the 6-5, fighting for their playoff lives Buffalo Bills catching just a lowly FG from the 9-2 Raiders? Seems a little sketchy to me. Tough spot as the Bills are West Coasting it for the 3rd time this season. But I think Rex gets the best out of his troops this afternoon. Oakland with huge game next with against KC. Buffalo can put points on the board. And we know the Raiders stop unit gives up plenty of yards and points. 5* Best Bet BUFFALO BILLS 

Taking ATLANTA here. Sign us big time here. I think Atlanta is having a nice little season. They have always played good with Matty Ice here at home. But what really gets me on them here is last Sunday night. Granted, we failed to get the cover as we had Denver. But KC left it all on the field for that win. Played an extra quarter of football vs a bitter division rival. Oh, and they have the other division leader, the Oakland Raiders on deck. KC has been winning games. But a closer look over the last few shows us this. A late rally and OT win at Denver. A home loss to Tampa. A miracle win in Carolina down 17-3 in the 4th. Getting out-yarded but beating the Jags. Just playing with fire in my book. 10* Money Bomb KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 

Taking GREEN BAY here. Have to say, I will be taking GB +165 on the ML here also. Think this line is a little sketchy. Eagles have played their best at home, going 4-0. Yet, this line is barely moving off a FG. Wentz after a fast start has come back down to rookie Earth. He has 4TDs and 6INTs his last 6 games (11TD 7INT year). Green Bay also playing their 3rd straight road game. If you have been living under rock, GB has been shredded for 89 points against the Titans and Redskins. That being said though. Why do I have that feeling that A-A-Ron is going to have a vintage, since he has been terrible, performance. I see one of those blast from the past 4 TD nights where Green Bay finally plays some decent ball. He has 25TDs and 7INTs which isn't too bad considering how bad they have played. We have cashed in 3 of the Packers last 4 games so I think I have a pretty good feel of their level of play. Desperate team with a HOF QB will get it done here on the road. 8* Sure Shot GREEN BAY PACKERS

Taking the RAVENS here. Had these guys last week and Dallas knocked in a late one for a non cover. That being said. Oh have the Bengals have fallen. 3-6-1 on the year. No playoffs. Green and Bernard missing. Just add to the missing assistants that have left off both sides of the ball the last couple years and the talent and coaching level has dropped. It has really been a fast fade this season. Baltimore is looking to take control of the AFC North and keep pace with the Steelers. I think they do it behind a very good defense this afternoon. Ravens have lost the last 5 in the series, but I see a big payback coming there way here. 5* Best Bet BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking the FALCONS here. Arizona off a loss and in b2b road games. Not an ideal scheduling spot for them as they get Atlanta off their bye week. Look. Arizona had a great year last year. But that is not this team. Carson Palmer looks like father time took a bite out of him. Just 13TD and 10 INTs on the year. Both sides not with the strongest secondaries, but you have to think Ryan to Jones will have a monster afternoon here. I think the Falcon defense can control David Johnson. Arizona 1-3 on the road and that was a win over the Niners giving up 28ppg. That won't help vs an Atlanta team that scores at will in the Dome. 8* Sure Shot ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking MIAMI here. Again with these guys. How many times have we cashed on this team? I'll tell you. A LOT $ And we will go back to the well again. Sp, they had a great comeback last week. That is the stuff that you look for. A team not responding to their coach or lacking motivation, or belief in themselves would have given up late. They battled and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat! Look. SF is bad. I see stuff like, oh the played the Pats tough basically held NE scoreless the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Well. Guess what? They lost! And couldn't cover double digits! Stop with they play tough already. Cross country for an early start time. Chip Kelly is probably going back to Oregon or another college. Couple that with there is just a lack of talent on both sides of the ball here for San Fran. Miami has been playing great and it is the result of good OL play. They should exploit a terrible 49er front 7 that gave up 249 and 248 rushing yards to the Saints and Bucs. They gave up 170 to the Pats last week. Ajayi will probably have 120 by halftime. If the Dolphins have any hope that they are a wild-card team they need a 10+pt win here. 10* Money Bomb MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking the COWBOYS and the OVER here. It is tough to lay this when the numbers say Dallas doesn't cover at home. But this is a different Cowboys teams as they are now on a 9-1 ATS/SU run. Dak and Elliot behind this line have been nothing short of brilliant. I would really have no issue with taking the Redskins here. I think Cousins leads a pretty good offense and the defense is no slouch either. But we just cashed them rolling the Packers. Now it is a short week vs a real physical, grinding team. I just think Dallas really pulls away in the 2nd half behind their OL. But I do think we see points here from both teams. I'm think something along the lines of 37-27 type range. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS + Over 

Taking the COWBOYS and the OVER here. It is tough to lay this when the numbers say Dallas doesn't cover at home. But this is a different Cowboys teams as they are now on a 9-1 ATS/SU run. Dak and Elliot behind this line have been nothing short of brilliant. I would really have no issue with taking the Redskins here. I think Cousins leads a pretty good offense and the defense is no slouch either. But we just cashed them rolling the Packers. Now it is a short week vs a real physical, grinding team. I just think Dallas really pulls away in the 2nd half behind their OL. But I do think we see points here from both teams. I'm think something along the lines of 37-27 type range. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS + Over 

 Taking the RAIDERS here. Just the better team and not laying a ton. Game in Mexico. The Raiders and Dallas, probably the 2 biggest surprises on the year. Carr is really maturing into a top QB. 17 TDs and just 3 INTs, while the big contract Osweiler signed doesn't look that good in year 1, 11TDs 9INTs. The OL has been very good. Texans defense nothing like when it has Watt coming after you. Raiders in off a bye week and have had success vs Osweiler when he played in Denver. So the added tape will only help. When is the last time the Texans played good on the road vs a team with a winning record? They haven't. I know the Raiders are young and the defense doesn't scare. But this is a talented group that is finding direction under Del Rio this year. 8* Sure Shot OAKLAND RAIDERS 

Taking the REDSKINS here. Have to grab my boys here in revenge mode. I lost with these guys last year in the playoffs and I expect some payback here on Sunday night. Fact is, Green Bay is 9-12 their last 21 games. If you think Aaron Rodgers has been anything but average the last calendar year, you are sadly mistaken. No way the Packers lose 4 straight right? I thought the Redskins were getting zero respect from odds-makers to win the NFC East with a pair of rookie QBs leading the Eagles and Dallas. This is a good team that plays well within its mean under their coach. Pack with injuries concerns on both sides of the ball. Josh Norman has been a boost to the Washington secondary. Kerrigan and Murphy have 7 sacks apiece for the 'Skins and A-A-Ron has been put on his back 22 times so far. 10* Money Bomb WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Taking the DOLPHINS here. Tough in a b2b road spot, but you can't back the Rams here. I can say I would have liked Miami +1, but I was thinking they win outright anyway. Jeff Fisher is just not getting it done. I mean, why are we waiting till now to trot out their QB of the future? Maybe because the coach is terrible and the QB had been terrible in pre-season. Dolphins have been money for us since we cashed them as a top play home dog over the Steelers. The OL is really the difference for me and has opened things up for their offense. 5* Best Bet MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking the JAGUARS here. I said on my podcast that the Gus Bradley era is over and it looks like Jax is mailing it in. But I look at this line and say to myself. How many people are saying 'no way the Lions don't win by touchdown this week!' I can see eliminator pools dwindling by the thousands come 4pm Sunday. Lions out of their bye, are now in first place in the NFC North. They also have a big Thursday Turkey-day showdown against the Vikings ahead. The Jags actually have the statistically better offenses and defenses in this match-up. Tossing out the Lions 6pt OT win over Minny, their other 4 wins have been a combined 11 points! And they are asked to lay nearly full TD here? How many times have we seen Bortles put up points when his team is down. The back door is wide open here. 5* Best Bet JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Taking the PATRIOTS here. How can I not grab them off a bye week. Short week for Seattle coupled with a long trip east. And frankly, I don't think they are as good as past editions. We have faded them on several occasions already. Brady is just doing Brady things. Throwing TDs, winning. Gronk and Bennett are monsters over the middle. I think Brady is really on a mission to make up for his suspension. There will be Super Bowl revenge as Seattle offense is a shell of that team. 8* Sure-Shot NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking CAROLINA here. They have put 2 straight together and might be looking at playoff spot if they keep it going. Won't be easy though as KC has gone 16-2 L 18 and 17-3 L 20 SU. Those are some tough numbers to fade. I just feel the Panthers are finally better football after their bye week. KC isn't dominating the stats but are getting the TOs (+13). Cam is having a poor season overall, but has gotten it done the last 2 weeks. At 3-5 they are in no position to be overlooking or past any opponent. Just certain spots where I feel a team is that 'must win' spot, and this is one of them. 10* Money Bomb CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking the RAIDERS here. Oakland has killed it on their east coast trips, but haven't done well in front of the home fans. Maybe you can say playing better teams, like the Falcons and Chiefs will do that to you. Maybe you think well, they aren't that good. True. They are terrible undisciplined and the defense leaves a lot of room for improvement. But this offense can generate yards and points. Do we forget that they went into Denver last year and shut out Oswieler in the 2nd half, scoring 15 points themselves winning the game 15-12? I get the Denver defense is the real deal. I get in a Pk, you don't need much from Siemian at QB or a patchwork RB duo. I think the Raiders are believing in themselves. And to get the defending champs at home for a battle to see who is top dog in the AFC West. 5*  Best Bet OAKLAND RAIDERS

Taking the PANTHERS here. I can't tell you how many times we have cashed the Rams as dogs over the last couple years. I can tell you about just as many times we faded a Panthers team to a win. Things are different for Carolina as they look far removed from a Super Bowl team of last year. I have to say though, something tells me that Cam Newton gets some calls this afternoon. He has been getting drilled and nary a flag. Now, I am not some pussifacation of the game guy. I think QBs should take their licks. And I also think that if they removed Cam from that Denver game, the same people complaining would have lost their minds. A starting QB removed with a minute to go driving for a GW score. Come on. Again, that being said here I think after meeting Goodall, he will get a benefit of a call or 2. Enough of my QB safety rant. The Rams. A picture of 8-8 or 7-9 every year, every team under Jeff Fisher. Guy will soon have the most losses of ANY NFL HC! Let's face the truth here. This Rams offense is brutal. They draft a QB and let him sit while they don't amass any wins. Carolina has a decent rush defense and Gurley hasn't impressed this season. Tough laying points with a fave that looks to be having a down year. But I feel there is too much pride here for them to slip up again on the road. 8* Sure Shot CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking the DOLPHINS here. Yes the old -3.5. You know from my podcasts that I love this and the 7.5 faves. As much as I cash dog-outrights, when I see these lines, I pounce like a puma! Miami off their bye week. Jets in b2b road games and 4th in 5 weeks. Dolphins OL healthy and you get b2b 200 yard rush games. These guys have a talented DL and will hound Fitzmagic into something bad. 10* Money Bomb MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking the BUCCANEERS here. Yep. Going ugly again on a Thursday night. Tampa off a crazy OT loss to the Raiders. They are sinking. Winston in the 'sophomore slump.' Nary a rushing attack. Defense looks like swiss cheese. But sign me up for the home dogs. Falcons in prime let down spot. Big win over GB last week. They are also off 4 straight close games, and 5 tough ones if you include their win over Carolina before that. This is a step-down in class by the looks of things. Look. TB HC Koetter is now 3-0 vs his old team. Like I said when he rolled on the Bucs in Game 1, they have the inside edge as they also employ old Atlanta HC Mike Smith on the defense. Falcons 1-11 ATS under HC Quinn. That is nuts. Tampa gets their first home win on the year here. 5* Best Bet TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 

Taking the COWBOYS here. The trends all say Philly here. 15-3 ATS last 18 vs NFC East teams. Dallas 3-12 ATS last 15 as home faves, 9-24 ATS last 33 in those games under Garrett. But this is a different team, and the coach is doing something different. Normally they go and lose games at San Fran or GB. But Garrett is putting Dak and the offense is great spots. He isn't resting on the fact he Tony Romo in there to sling all game long no matter what play calling he was giving. But this under control offense is a beast. The OL is still the best in the game. Elliot is doing a great job hitting holes. Could be a Dez sighting tonight. And, the 'Boys are off their bye week. That extra time is great especially since Philly threw some new wrinkles into upending Minny last week at home. Now, if the Eagles were coming in off a loss, then I could see backing the dog. I just think this Dallas team is really working very well right now. Let's not forget that Philly is also bringing a rookie QB on the road with them. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the SAINTS here. Will grab the home dogs here. Nearly went +120 and will probably sprinkle a little ML in here. Look. Brees at home. A beast. 11 TDs 2 INTs leading an offense scoring 36ppg here at home and putting up over 500 yards of offense. And speaking of beasts, the Beast Mode is gone and Seattle has nary a rush attack. Wilson is clearly hobbled. Guy has rushed for 33 yards this year after going for 2300+, over 500 a year in his other 4 seasons. At this rate, he might not get to 100. I know the Saints defense is bad. But the catch Seattle with an early start time off the Sunday night game. Did you watch that game? What a slug-fest. What do the 'Hawks have left. A loss here and they are still atop the NFC West. For New Orleans, it is clearly get busy time. They are 2-4 but still in the hunt as the Falcons are 4-3 atop the South. Saints 10-3-2 ATS last 15 as dogs and have won their last 3 SU as dogs. 10* Money Bomb NEW ORLEANS SAINTS