Taking the SAINTS. Tough spot again for San Fran. Off a tough Ravens game - now coming to the dome to face Brees and Payton. This is a pretty short number. Normally I shy away from the long hanging fruit. But people will be all over SF for a second week in the row in a dog role. A little extra rest with the Thanksgiving Game in Atlanta, and this should be a nice cash. 8* Sure Shot 

Taking the PACKERS. Had these guys ML last week and they totally wet the bed on national TV. Just looking at Rodgers face you can tell how pissed and angry he was. This Giants defense is nothing like San Fran. This is a team that the Packers beat. These guys are 8-3. Lost both games in Cali to Chargers and Niners in bad fashion. In between, a 8pt win at home over Panthers and a bye. Sitting at 8-3, same as Minnesota, Pack need a win. Again, Giants defense not anywhere near what the Niners will bring. Rodgers too much a competitor to not bounce back after that performance Sunday. 5* Best Bet GREEN BAY PACKERS

Taking the COWBOYS. Let's start with the Bills. An 8-3 team getting in some spots a full TD from a 6-5 team. Oh we have to take the team with the better record. Let's see. They have scored more than 30 twice, both vs Miami. Wins at NYJ and NYG. Were down big and needed miracle to beat Jets. Faced Rookied QB in Giants. Beat Cincy. Does that need a comment? Lost to Patriots. Whipped 31-10 at home by Eagles. Beat Redskins 24-9 with Haskins at QB. Lost at Cleveland 19-16. Beat Denver with Brandon Allen and his 82 passing yards at QB 20-3 at home. Dak and friends will have a field day here. Bad conditions and poor play calling cost them in NE. A huge, must , must , must win game for Dallas here. Short week. Desperate team. Huge talent differential at offensive skill positions. Bills beat the bad teams. Lose to good ones. It is proven in their games this season 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the PACKERS. Getting GB off a bye week. Getting GB and Rodgers, angry. Last time in Cali they were a no show for a game vs the Chargers. I am sure - 100% positive, Rodgers took the team to task for that showing. As great as his 17 TDs and 2 INTs look. How about the run game with the other Aaron, Jones, with 11 rushing TDs (plus 3 in the air). Smith and Smith combo with 18.5 sacks. I am sure they will get some pressure on Jimmy G. And who is he handing off to? A lot of lingering injuries on both sides of the ball for San Fran. I don't find it hard to believe that Aaron Rodgers still holds a grudge for the Niners taking Alex Smith over him. ML and Points if you want them. 8* Sure Shot GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking DALLAS. Might also grab a little +245 ML. Listen. You don't make all that much money fading this QB + HC combo. And you all know how I feel about this Dallas HC. Brutal. But that's a story for another day. One. I think Dallas defense is pretty good. Albeit they have shown just flashes. But they can get pressure on Brady and their LBs are a solid group. This is really going to come down to dictating Zeke and their OL. Honestly though, the way Dak has played, you really can't get down if they have him passing often to his WR dynamic duo. I think this is just too many points. If you can get 7 at a little higher price, I think its worth it. But I also think Dallas has a shot at being a live dog this afternoon also. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the TITANS. Can't believe I didn't load this game up at the start of the week. Off bye week. Tannehill makes this team look 100% better offensively. Defense always solid for Tennessee. I like Foles. Thought it was a great signing. Guy has done nothing but win games when given a start. But, he has a game and a what, a series or 2 under his belt. You can't be breaking new QBs in Week 12. Especially when you are the Jags who historically struggle on offense. Sad for the lost year Jaguar fans. A lot of wasted talent on that defense. Give me the lunch box brigade. All the Titans do is win when nobody is looking and end up 9-7 and in the playoffs. 10* Money Bomb TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking the COLTS. I am no fan of the Texans. Way too inconsistent for me. Especially laying points like this. Huge division game. I get Brissett under center. I have not 1, but 2 100 yard backs last week. I know Texans can be explosive on offense. But, if you aren't on the field all that much, good look. I can see how you would be on Houston after they had their doors blown off last week. Indy is 5-1 SU last 6 in this series. Jacoby, a perfect 3-0 vs Houston in his starts. So it wasn't all Luck for Indy. Cots when healthy a very solid team. And I have to be all aboard even in a short week. They made light work of the Jags. And with this last game as the exception, every Colts game is a possession game. 5* Best Bet INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

Taking the BEARS. I have kicked Chicago's back in since pre-season. QB is brutal and the coach doesn't help a bit. But there is zero chance I am laying at home with the Rams. OL is a nightmare. Gurley is done. Guy hasn't been healthy last couple years. Goff making that contract look horrible. Not his fault that he is an average QB. Rams always have problems with good defenses. And, the Bears defense is still an elite unit. We might not win this one outright, but there is not a chance the Rams win this by a TD. 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS 

Taking the PATRIOTS. I get it. It might be a square play here with NE off a bye week. But I can't trust Philly even as a small dog. Especially with Super Bowl Pay-back on the menu tonight. This is NOT that Eagles team. This team has loads of problems on both sides of the ball. They are 5-4. Where is the good win? At Green Bay? Is that what we are hanging our hats on? Let's do a little recap here. Redskins jumped out early on them and Philly held on. Lost at Atlanta. Lions beat them here. The GB win. Mauled Jets with a backup QB behind center for the visitors. Beaten badly at Minny, then smashed by Dallas on National TV. Beat a so so Bills team. Again I ask - Will Brady beat this team by 4 points off a bye week with a Super Bowl loss memory fresh in his head. I don't think this game is close. It might be tight for a half, but Patriots defense will want to reshape their image after the Ravens game. Brady has something to prove. Brady 13-4 off bye week. Pats with the NFC East co-leader Cowboys on deck at home. Then South leading Texans then West leading Chiefs all coming up. This is the most focused and fresh they will be. I found this little tidbit on the web from the start of the season - Since 2002, away favorites coming off a bye are 66-31 against the spread (68%) and a phenomenal 28-6 ATS (82.4%) and 31-3 straight up (91.2%) when favored by at least 4.5 points. - 10* Money Bomb NE PATRIOTS 

Taking the SAINTS. Have to grab this team off a bad game. NO not looking too pretty last week vs the Falcons. This is a game that the HC takes very seriously. TB off nice come from behind win over Arizona. But this isn't a rookie QB and HC. This is a HOF QB & Coach, and Super Bowl winning combo. 5* Best Bet NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the JAGUARS. Last we saw Jax they were getting mauled in London 26-3 by the Texans. Minshew mania over after that 2 interception day. Off their bye week, Nick Foles returns. Minshew was solid. 13 TDs. 93 passer rating. Not too shabby for the rookie. But Foles has a playoff pedigree. We can laugh and joke about it. The guy wins. 14-4 back in 2013/2014 for Philly. Then 6-2 the last 2 years filling in for Wentz, and 4-1 in the Playoffs adding a Super Bowl Trophy to his shelf. Colts for me, way too shaky. And I was a big Indy guy this season. But TY out. QB questions. Not a spot to be laying points. Shaky kicking game. Jags all day for me here. 8* Sure Shot JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Taking the NINERS here. I don't think I have heard one person say they like San Fran. I get Wilson is having an MVP year. Something tells me though that SF are practiced and ready to go. Extra prep time off the Thursday game. Injured guys get some more time. Sanders looked good in his first game since trade from Denver. The defense is not too shabby. 10* Money Bomb SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 

Taking the COWBOYS. Went back and forth a bit on this one. I do like Minny. Love their HC. But their QB is a Prime Time nightmare. How about 6-14 in prime-time starts, and 6-29 against opponents with winning records! Dak is 14-5 in his prime-time starts. Let's not forget 0 4th quarter comebacks either from Cousins, 0-10-1 when trailing coming into the 4th. Not going to say some negatives backing Garrett in this spot for Dallas. But Minny just hasn't figured it out when it matters on the road. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the COWBOYS. Think this will be a bit of shootout, so maybe look a little at the over. But my top play is on the side. Dallas out of the bye. Getting healthy all around. The defense has under-achieved in my eyes. I think they really get after Jones behind center. NYG OL not great shakes at all. Key here to a nice double digit win is Zeke and Dak. They pound early, open things up, and you get the big plays from Dallas WRs. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the BROWNS. I wasn't high on these guys to start to the year. Still not high on them. But they have the best offensive guys on the field. If they can't pull out a win here, fire the coach before the flight home. 5* Best Bet CLEVELAND BROWNS 

Taking TAMPA BAY. Like Russell for sure. This is a no brainer when it comes to the QBs here. But Seattle does like to run. And Tampa brings a solid run D. Also, I don't think Seattle can handle the Bucs WRs. These are two #1 wide-outs that could star on any team. Seahawks just not covering as faves. How about 10 straight dogs now in Seattle games? 1-5 ATS this season for Seattle and 0-4 ATS at home. Their 2 wins at home, 21-20 over Cincy, 30-29 over the Rams (remember Rams missed FG at end). Lost to Teddy Bridgewater 33-27, lost to Ravens 30-16. Can't trust them laying even vs this team. 8* Sure Shot TB BUCCANEERS 

Taking the JETS, my Top Play of the Week. All the money pouring in on the Dolphins. I get Jets looking bad. But I am all over them today. Let's remember, Gase was run out of Miami last year. You don't think this is a huge game for him? You don't think any Jets players on the roster from last year wants payback for losing both games to Miami. Jets by double digits. 10* Money Bomb NEW YORK JETS 

Taking the PANTHERS. Off a bye week, I think they are ready to pick off the Niners. We had the Redskins and managed a half point cover without scoring a point. Washington then proceeded to bite us in the butt on Thursday night as they don't force a punt, but still manage to cover the number. Back to the Niners. Just a spot I think is bad for them. Still banged up on the OL. Plus, short week with division rival Arizona on deck. That is where their focus will be. They can drop an out of division game. Heck, they can win and not cover. I just think that since Cam has been out, this is a different team. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking the COLTS. Again, back as our Top Play this week. I can't believe this line is where it is. I am shocked is not over a touchdown. In fact, it has dropped a bit. I have no clue why. How can a sharp money player come in on Denver? They just traded a veteran WR. Their QB has looked awful in pocket. Their defense is ok which you would expect from this HC. But everything else is a mess. Indy a focused a group. I said this from the moment Luck went down. There is not really a huge drop off to Brissett. Kid filled in when Luck was lost for the season before. That is huge. The defense cost them games that season. That has improved. The OL has improved. The run game. Everything has improved. Like this HC. You see how Philly has struggled since he has left. Much like the guy in SF. He leaves ATL after the Super Bowl loss and Falcons can't muster anything. Huge end on the sidelines for us today. I don't care about extra rest for Denver. That team played scared even after Mahomes went down. If this isn't a double digit win I will be shocked. 10* Money Bomb INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

Taking the GIANTS. Might even sprinkle some +250 ML here. Giants getting healthy on offense. Rookie Daniel Jones with some new toys returning. Barkley, Tate, Engram. They will score some points here. Lions who I thought were off to a promising start, well, losing your RB hurts. I just can't back the Lions as a favorite of this size. 8* Sure Shot NY GIANTS  

Taking the JETS. New Jets team people. I thought at the start of the season, they were a playoff team. Then mono and injuries show up and you have a 3rd stringer in their behind center and the wheels are falling off. Well, Mono-Man is back. The OL is still a concern for me. But I do like the defense. I think with a real NFL QB you make your RB that much better. Everything improves. Jets HC has beaten Pats while in Miami. Always a tough series here. You can't really knock NE. The defense is taking the ball away every game. What I see is Brady throwing some end-zone INTs. Patriots offense is ok, but nothing really special. 5* Best Bet NY JETS 

Taking the BEARS. Great run by Teddy B with 4 straight wins and the Saints can't be complaining. Guy was decent in Minny, so not exactly a true back up. But, back to back road games tough in the NFL. At Seattle, home vs Dallas and Tampa - road win vs hot Panthers. Bears going to be an angry bunch for sure. Bad loss in London. I don't care who is throwing the ball, Chicago wins with defense. And, we have seen when Teddy and the Saints get a good defense, they struggle. 13-6 last week. 12-10 over Dallas. We have seen Tampa and Seattle give up plenty of points. Bears allowing just 13.8ppg and are on a 17-6-1 ATS run at home last 24 games. 8* Sure Shot CHICAGO BEARS 

Taking the FALCONS. Both of these guys in a bit of a free-fall. I think the Dan Quinn era(rror) is going to be coming to an end soon. Granted, the kicking has bit them in the butt, but what a waste of this offensive talent. Rams come in now losers of 3 straight, and have an early start time, while playing Matty Ice at home who has pretty good numbers here. That says all you need to know about the state of the Falcons. Ryan leading the NFC in TD passes and yards. He has a pair of pretty decent wide-outs if you don't know them. Job on the line here for the home team HC. Dog Outright. 5* Best Bet ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking the COLTS. Big game here for Indy. Rested, off bye. Guys back getting healthy. Hilton and Mack are great weapons for Brissett. They have won 7 of their 8 at home. They have covered 9 of 10 against teams with a winning record. 27-8 SU vs the Texans. Houston in off huge win over KC. In fact, both teams last win over Chiefs. Back to back roadies tough. Double tough after winning at Arrowhead, then coming to a play a team that beat you in the playoffs last year. Colts get it done. 10* Money Bomb INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

Taking the LIONS and will be looking at +215 on the ML. Everyone will be on the Packers after they dismantled Dallas early. They will probably over look the INTs, the missed FGs, the 500+ yards off offense they gave up. Oh, it's Aaron Rodgers at home and they only have to win by a touch down. Detroit off bye. Had that crazy KC game before. For me though. This is just a great situational spot for the road team. Extra prep time for division rival. I get it. GB will be looking for revenge off 31-0 loss here at home last year. But, no Rodgers. I don't put much merit in that angle. 5* Best Bet DETROIT LIONS 

Taking the CHARGERS. This Pitt team is in trouble this year. Forget the QB problems. This defense has yet to get an offense off the field when it needs to. Enter the Chargers off a brutal home loss. Yeah, we had Denver and the points. But I thought they would hang tough and too much Rivers and Allen would win a close shoot-out. Instead. LAC couldn't do anything right. I expect them to get right here. A big offensive night for this team. 8* Sure Shot LA CHARGERS 

Taking the RAMS. So, we had ML play on Seattle last Thursday. Tough, tough loss as Rams miss FG at end of game. Looking inside the stats here. Rams put up basically 30 points in about 25 minutes of work. Closed in on nearly 500 yards of offense. This is a huge game for LAR sitting at 3-2. We have Niners here on Monday Night. I think they win this over the Browns. That means, a short week. Off a MNF win. While Rams sitting with extra for this monster divisional game. Everyone remembers what they last saw. That is Niner domination, and Rams chocking on a late FG.  10* Money Bomb LA RAMS 

Taking the JAGUARS. Saints have bit us in the butt the last two weeks. We will fade them again. So, on the grass, out of the dome, and off a big SNF win over the Cowboys. And a big division win over Tampa Bay. Taking to the road in a non-conference game seems a bit of let-down spot. Teddy B off his best game ever. This Saints team still has had trouble offensively - Yes 4-1. But winning by just 4 points a game and having eclipsed 300 yards of total offense twice. How is that possible in today's NFL? Christian McCaffrey had 250 yards himself in a game last week! - Look. Maybe Ramsey is back as he sees the team competing. Fournette having a huge bounce back season. DJ Chark is on the same page as Minshew. Bears on deck for NO, so you think they might eye that NFC game more important. 8* Sure Shot JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Taking the COWBOYS. I get that people will be giddy getting Aaron Rodgers at a FG or maybe even 3.5. This game is going to be a Dallas BLOWOUT. One. Let's talk about what we last saw from Dallas. Them struggling in the Dome vs the Saints. Wasn't like the defense didn't show up. Hats off to Sean Payton and company out-coaching Jason Garrett though this is nothing new. At home, off a prime time loss, Dallas primed for a rout. So GB has some extra rest. They need it. They were just exposed by the Eagles. If you want to say Dallas didn't play anyone, let's talk about the Packers defense and their performances. You really impressed with them shutting down the Bears and Broncos. And getting Cousins at home to throw a bad INT - No DeVonte is a big blow to Rodgers WR corp. Someone will probably step up, but it won't be enough. Think Dallas OC adjusts, and Zeke has a monster game to open things up for Dak. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the BEARS. Call me crazy. Call me anything you want. Just don't call me late for dinner. Said on my video last Sunday about this Bears offense. I think they are better with Mitch OUT. Give me Chase all day long. The offense can't get worse. Oh yeah, LONDON ALERT. This isn't in Oakland or LA, or Vegas or wherever the heck the Raiders lay their heads down. These outfit is half a globe away from home. You don't think Mack is going to wind up his buddies to make sure to release the dogs of war on his former team and coach? If Chicago can get any offense going this is going to be a blood bath. This would be a normal 10* Play. But have to downgrade a bit based on the travel, time, field. Bears roar behind their defensive leader. 5* Best Bet CHICAGO BEARS 

Taking the VIKINGS. On these guys AGAIN!! Yes, we have been on Minny all season long with mixed results. I'll tell you this - If Cousins can't solve this defense, it is really time for them to move on. Eat the contract. What a waste of this WR dynamic duo. Not to mention their TE. Cook should feast on this Giants defense. This is a BAD TEAM people. Don't be fooled by a crazy comeback at Tampa or the fact they beat a rookie QB who looked lost last week. Daniel Jones has some problems that just haven't come up and bite him yet. Fumbles and INTs vs this defense, rest assured, will be turned into points by this anemic offense. For me. This is really a season changer for the Vikings. They should come in here with their excellent HC and defense and really dictate this game to the Giants. Cousins, even with short passes should carve these guys up. The NFC North is there for the taking. 8* Sure Shot MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the COWBOYS. Have yet to see the Saints defense show up for a series this season. Not a chance they can slow down Dallas. Even if Brees was playing, we would be on Dallas. Tons of talent on both offenses. Just think Cowboys D is a step or two above N'awleans. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the VIKINGS. We have been on these guys all season. Will come back again here on the road. We had Packers over Bears here. We will take Minny over Bears. Vikes bring their own pretty good defense to the battle today. Getting a FG, I know its tough with Cousins and how he screws things up sometimes. But, this is a balanced attack. Not high on Chicago offense at all. They will be coming off MNF so that helps us a bit in the rest department. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking SEATTLE. Punt return and a fumble return for TD put Seahawks in a tough spot. Gotta believe in Pete Carroll to have these guys ready to rock a rookie QB and HC. Clear edge on the sidelines for us. Panthers just came here and did whatever they wanted to do. Something that the Ravens couldn't do at home. But with a backup QB across the field, Arizona was ambushed by a 4 TD outings. Russell Wilson comes in off a 400 yard game. 4 of the last 6 games have been decided by a FG. The other two, a tie and a 6 pt win. I think this is going to be a beat down in the 30-10 type range. 440+ yards per game for Arizona D with 0 INTs yet. Cards 1-15-1 SU last 17 games. 10* Money Bomb SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

Taking the TITANS. I like the Falcons. This is their division to lose know with Brees out. I have them at a nice plus money ticket to win the South. But my oh my do they play down to teams. Their failures on the road continue after losing to Vikings and last week to the Colts. They mauled Philly in a physical affair - but, let's not forget they had to pull that win out of their butts. 6 INTs for Matty Ice after 7 all of last year. For me though, we get extra rest with Tennessee. The are going to try to run, run, run and then throw to their tight end. I think this is going to be an ugly affair. Falcons seem to play down to teams. But, Titans 12-10 their last 22, how about 8-16 last 24 for Atlanta. We have the better defense in a game of two desperate teams. Coin flip game to me and we are getting a bit more than a FG. 5* Best Bet TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking CLEVELAND. Look. Can't be happy at the sloppy play on MNF vs the Jets. Some real dumbness from the Browns. We get a little reprieve as this is the night game as opposed to an early start. Rams good yes. Faded them at Carolina, big backing of them vs Saints. But this is a tough spot. The OL didn't look all that good last week. Cleveland for all the ugliness can still bring some pressure. Talented home dog in Prime Time vs NFC Super Bowl Reps from last year. Sign me up. 5* Best Bet CLEVELAND BROWNS 

Taking the NINERS. So Big Ben is injured. He plays, he doesn't. Steelers really have some issues brewing. They looked terrible at New England. That's allowed. But to not even be in control before Ben got injured. We saw Seattle basically lay an egg at home. And they are not historically good in September. Especially on the road. So now they may have a new man under center. We have seen the Niners perform pretty well on both sides of the ball so far. The rush attack is pretty solid. Defense getting it done. Actually shocked this isn't 3 with Big Ben. I guess the thinking is Pitt is desperate at 0-2. Home team for me. 8* Sure Shot SAN FRAN 49ers

Taking the VIKINGS. Time to fade away on the Raiders. The losses will start piling up. Ugly game from Minny at GB, so you know they will be 100% focused here and not overlooking Oaktown. We saw the Bills come in here and still a win last year. Not happening. 1-1 for Vikes, and need to keep pace with 2-0 GB who is also 2-0 in division. Zim at home always strong. Everything just better for Minny on their home turf. We saw KC not score in 3 quarters and still dominate Oakland. I think Vikings put up 30+ and Raiders don't know what hit them. Their defense won't allow RB Jacobs to control this game. They have their own RB who can put on a show. 10* Money Bomb MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the LIONS. So these guy buried us in Week 1. We avoided them last week against the Chargers. Now they take to the road getting a TD. You know I am no Philly fan. But the bias is not shying through here. This is an overvalued team right now. We saw it in Week 1 vs Washington. We even saw it last week against the Falcons. And we were on Atlanta. But that wasn't an easy win. Philly banged up all over the place. Plus, this can easily be a look ahead for them. Green Bay on Thursday night lurks ahead. Lions defense looked great first 3 quarters in Arizona before, I am assuming, not playing the 4th quarter. They held a pretty good QB in Brees in check last week. And we know Stafford is a stat compiler late in games. Back door wide open for him to come strolling in. 8* Sure Shot DETROIT LIONS 

Taking the BRONCOS. Lost an ugly one with these guys on Monday night. But we are home and angry. Plus, as everyone probably already knows. Our HC was the DC of the Bears. Like I said when we took the Packers of Chicago. Bears defense will be good. But they won't be historically great. We saw how bad the offense looks. Are you telling me Miller and Chubb won't be able to get after Trubisky this afternoon? He's a statue. And the play calling is highly questionable. Give me Denver who has every player strength and weakness marked down on that Bears sideline. 5* Best Bet DENVER BRONCOS

Taking the RAMS. I get it. Saints want revenge for last year. Maybe the refs give them a play to make up for it. I don't think it will matter. We saw the Texans move up and down the field on Monday night. Rams can do the same. Gurley looked ok. Plus, with Brown, now they can really pound away and keep Brees off the field. Can't hide the now 2-9 SU and 1-11 ATS run that New Orleans has put together in Games 1+2 the last couple years. Maybe Brees is in his swan song. Last year was the least amount of passing yards in his 12 years with the Saints. I know he sat a game, but he would have need 400 to get up to next lowest total. Look. New Orleans is solid. But I think everyone already had this game as loss for the Rams. Super Bowl runner ups have their motivation. 8* Sure Shot LA RAMS 

Taking GREEN BAY to open up the season. So real fast - You know we had a nice season in 2018. In 2017 we led ALL handicappers in NFL. And going back to 2010 and over 1000 picks, we are cashing at a 56% clip. This season, I feel a 60+ % season on deck. I've redone worked some numbers, and man, if I adjusted faster last season we would have added at a minimum, a half dozen more wins.  -- For 2019 kick-off though, we are grabbing the dogs. I've said in videos already that I expect the Bears to take a step back. Losing their DC will be felt, especially early. Let's not forget that even though we cashed Chicago when they jumped to that 20-0 lead before losing 24-23. I still don't expect Mitch to outperform Aaron. Rodgers, I feel, has a lot to prove. New HC and now he has to show that his old HC was keeping him down. Getting a nice number, have to play the division dogs with a chip on their shoulder. 5* Best Bet GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Taking the CHIEFS. So I would really be looking to move on the ML if it gets to about -130. But for the sites here, we will lay the 3 points. I think money will come in on Brady. I had the Chargers last week, and I wish I could have gotten out of it on the sites as by Friday, it seemed the entire world was fading the Patriots. I think the cold and travel was just too much to overcome when you have a NE team on a 16-0 13-3 ATS run at home over their last 16 games. We took that loss and look to bounce back today. KC is tough at home. I know the defense isn't that good, but here, they play a lot better. I think that is the difference maker. Brady and the Patriots haven't won a road playoff game since 2007! Ok, that is 3 Super Bowl losses and a loss at Denver - Look, we have seen NE struggle on the road this season. 3-5. Jags and Lions took it to them. Titans took it to them. 43-40 at home vs KC this year. Last year, Alex Smith 4 TDs 368 yards in a 42-27 KC win. I know Andy Reid doesn't get much love. But he has shown he is tough vs NE. I know it is tough taking Reid and rookie QB over Brady and The Hoodie. Pats scoring and defense all trend down on the road. 5* Best Bet KC CHIEFS 

Taking the SAINTS. Pretty easy thinking here for me. Right off the bat, I though they would roll over Philly last week. That first quarter sunk any hope of a big win. But we move on. So home teams in Championship Round a perfect 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS. New Orleans defense also playing much better football. Forget that last game vs Carolina. That was an exhibition game for the Saints. We remove those 33 points and we see NO defense giving up 14.5ppg. Also. Rams at home, 1 team, Rams on the road, a different team. How about Goff with 10TD 9INTs on the road this year. I'll back Brees and Payton, the old guys, over the new kids on the block, McVay and Goff. 5* Best Bet NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking SAINTS. So 3rd straight road game and 5th in 6 weeks for Eagles. That is a tough run. Especially when every game is a playoff a game. Saints at home, rested, very dangerous. Yes, we can say, oh 48-7, should be just as easy. Well. I do think this is a 2 score win for New Orleans. Will it be a 40 pt win, that would be nice, but I don't think so. Now, Could the Saints get 48 again. Of course. Look. Mitch Trubisky just passed or 300 yards on this defense. Brees could have 250 at the half. Please throw out their final loss at home to Carolina. That was a pre-season finale game with the players they used. Saints getting knocked basically for a 3 game run of losing at Dallas, a sluggish game at the Bucs. And a horrible win over the Panthers 12-9. They go 2-1 and win ugly. They won ugly at Minnesota. That is what a great team will do. Eagles defensive backs to not put any scare into me. Brees will do Brees in the dome Playoff stuff. 3-4 TDs 325+ yards. - Back to Philly. I like Foles. Thought he should have gotten the nod the entire season or most of it. Guy can play a bit, and it's clear the players rally around him. But that being said - Eagles a great Cinderella story last year. But Cinderella only goes to the ball once. Season turns into a pumpkin this evening. 10* Money Bomb NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the CHARGERS, again. Cashed last week and a little too close for comfort. But that is what happens when you are in cruise control most of the game. That won't be the case vs the Patriots. Who needs extra motivation to play these guys? Look. I have been on the Chargers numerous times this year. We have seen these guys win at Seattle, Pitt, Baltimore and KC. Technically, undefeated on the road since they had a 'road' loss at the Rams. It isn't like they have a great home field in that joke Center they play in. Bosa and Ingram can and will get pressure on Brady. He will be whining early when he starts getting knocked around. They say maybe snow. It won't matter. Chargers can run the ball or just do the short passing thing to move the chains. This is not a vintage Patriots team. We know this. Loss at Jacksonville and Detroit in back to back weeks. Lost at Tennessee. That crazy loss at Miami. The loss at Pittsburgh. This is a tough, all around talented visitor coming to down. Not a pair of rookie QBs like the Pats have faced the last 2 weeks. This is a HOF QB getting points with arguable the better defense and offenses that aren't that far apart. Sprinkle some ML. 5* Best Bet LA CHARGERS 

Taking DALLAS. Had these guys last week, back on them. Dak a total beast last week with the game on the line. But he is not new to comebacks. I think people forget a couple years ago he went toe to toe with a healthy, good Aaron Rodgers and just ran out of time as his terrible coach cost the team a win. Rams a good team. Coming in off bye, but before that taking Arizona and San Fran. But those QBs aren't Dak. And neither team has Zeke. Or even Amari. This team really changed with the arrival of Cooper. But let us not forget this defense either. Both teams with strong Ds - But maybe the Rams really peaked early. Is Gurley 100%? I know everyone is banged up after a season of football. Basically 3 weeks off. Will he be rusty? Good? Who knows? Let's not forget the Cooper Kupp loss. This is a lot of points for the Rams and Goff. Only his 2nd playoff start. 1st one wasn't that good. Dallas with house money getting a TD. Can eat clock and keep offense off the field. I think we have a live dog here. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the CHARGERS. Had the Chargers a couple weeks ago at home and the Ravens hurt our bankroll. But will fade Baltimore again. LAC defense now with some good tape on Thomas. This is a good team. You don't go 7-1 on the road winning in every time zone in American, and London with fluke plays. The defense is a top 10 rush unit which is where the Ravens strength comes from. Let's just look at their road games. At Seattle where it is always tough to play (ask KC who lost there). Steelers did fade or choke their 2nd half away. But down 13-0 and 23-3 and winning. How about down 14-0 early and 28-21 late and winning in KC? Baker Mayfield just threw for 357 vs this defense. Yes, Baltimore won in LA after the Chargers were locked in the playoffs while Ravens were desperate. Now you have a rookie QB as a fave over a HOFer - No way. Take out that win in LA and Baltmore, 6-1 behind the rookie, beat the Bengals, Falcons, Raiders, Bucs and Browns. That's a 29-50-1 record and zero playoff teams. 10* Money Bomb LA CHARGERS 

Taking the COWBOYS today. 24-13 was the score back in September when these guys met in Seattle. Different teams now. Yes, Seattle has won 4 of the last 5 and 2 of the last 3. But do we want Matt Cassell at QB and Tony Romo in our ratings here. Let's look at Dak at QB and an 0-2 record losing 24-13 and 21-12. Not winning many games putting up 12.5 points a game. Dallas had played poorly in Jerry's World. But 7-1 this year. They have been playing well since November. And even losing fading them last week vs the Giants, you have to like that they wanted to win the game. Seattle just 4-4 on the road this year. 4 wins vs Raiders, Lions, Cardinals and Panthers. 4 teams with sub .500 records on the season. Lost at Denver by 3. Lost at San Fran by 3. Lost at Rams by 5. Lost at Bears by 7. Since their only home loss, Tenn MNF 28-14, the 'Boys have reeled off a 7-1 record. This game is basically a PK. I see -1's but will just go ML. As long as their crappy coach doesn't have his usual brain-farts, Dallas should be moving on the next round. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the VIKINGS. So we like the UNDER in this game also. Same thinking. If you like the Bears here, then you must be all over the 0-7 on the road SF 49ers beating the 12 win Rams as double digit dogs. No cover. Winning. I can't see it.  You are telling me the Bears will be pulling new tricks out of their bag, and throwing in new wrinkles to confuse Minny who they are more than likely playing again next week. They want to try to knock out the Vikes to face the defending champs, Eagles with Foles behind center who the team does nothing but rally behind? Not buying it. Taking the Vikings who seem to have turned the offense around since canning their OC. 8* Sure Shot MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Taking the RAVENS. Another Super Contest pick for me.. Tied for 42 heading into the final Sunday. So I like Baltimore. Everyone will be on the upstart Browns. I think this defense is too much for the rookie to deal with on the road. Ravens bringing some fire today - let's not forget a TD pass with 40 something seconds left, at home, to knock them out of the playoffs last year. Focused, they deliver us the W . 5* Best Bet BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking the BILLS. These guys haven't given up. They did lose (covered late) vs NE last week. But if we look at their 2 previous games at home. Beating the Lions and losing a tough one to the Jets. As we saw with the Jets vs GB, they haven't quit on their coach. This Bills team still has a pretty solid defense. And Miami wants no part of being in Buffalo in January. Back to teams showing fight. I think its safe to say the Dolphins have given up on their coach. We faded them 2 weeks ago in Minny and the Vikings ran them out of town. They still had a shot at the playoffs. And after scoring first to take a 7-0, Jags control the entire game. Nothing. No desperation. Jags off a loss to a 4th string QB picked up off the street. Where was their motivation? But pros with pride showed up for a road win. And as long as we are on road wins. How about Miami 1-11 SU last 12 on the road. 0-6 and 1-5 ATS last 6. Back on Dec. 2, Bills put up over 400 yards of offense and lost 21-17. That is what 3 TOs will do to a team on the road. 10* Money Bomb BUFFALO BILLS 

Taking the RAIDERS here. Should really go ML here on the sites for +120. Final game here for Oakland. Should be an insane atmosphere. Now- Normally I like to fade home teams when they honor former players or come out with retired jerseys and so-on. But not here. We have a complete disaster on the other sideline with the Vance Joseph led Denver Broncos. Guy should have been canned for that FG on Saturday night. So Denver limps in officially eliminated from playoff action. Raiders have shown life playing at home. Dog outright tonight. 5* Best Bet OAKLAND RAIDERS 

Taking the COWBOYS. Only way to go in this spot. Off their first shut-out since Quincy Carter was their QB! Look. We had Indy last week. Real tough spot for the Cowboys off that OT Philly win. And a rough stretch in general. 5 straight. Road wins over Philly and Falcons. A Redskins game. That Saints Thursday nighter. A stinker was coming. It came. Let's not sell the Colts short either. They are a tough foe right now. So Bucs in a back to back road spot. 5 wins. Looks like they have lame duck coach who could be canned after the season. Perhaps the GM heads out also. As good as the TB QB tandem has been putting up points, 31 TDs it also has 15 INTs. And we won't talk about the terrible defense. Don't be confused by last week vs the Ravens. And I type that knowing we had Baltimore to get it done. Dak won't throw the ball 23 times for 131 yards. Amari Cooper could have 100 yards by half-time. Zeke will Zeke. Cowboys need to lock up their playoff spot. This is the spot. Now next week in New York with a wild-card game vs possible Seattle after that. They win this by double digits. Rest some guys vs the Giants. Ready for the playoffs. 10* Money Bomb DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the VIKINGS. Cashed with these guys last week, back on them again. I know that taking a division home dog in revenge spot is nice. Especially with a guy like Stattsford who can garbage time a back-door cover. But like last week, this play is based on the new OC getting things done. This team has been waiting to break out and I think with their season on the line again, we get another good effort. Let's not short change the defense that recorded 9 sacks last week. Safe to say Year 1 of the Patricia Era is closing out poorly. Lions scoring 16ppg and are getting out-yarded every week. Minny should crack 30 and this is a 10+ point win. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the RAMS. LA offense sure didn't look good in Chicago. I think things will be different at home. Both teams in off losses. But Rams still battling for that home field with New Orleans. Eagles defense has been a MASH unit nearly all season. Dallas put up nearly 600 yards off offense. Again. Bears defense and the cold a lot different than this Philly team that looks like it sold its soul for last years Super Bowl Win. 38-17 sounds about right. 5* Best Bet LA RAMS 

Taking the TITANS here. Should really be playing +125/+130 that the sites are offering. I am trying to get back to that #1 NFL Capper Spot. No shame being ranked where I am right now. But we are looking forward to a big month here after we go 31-10 (76%) last December - Let's jump right in on the Giants. Are you really impressed with a 5-8 record. Wins over Mark Sanchez and the Redskins. Chase Daniel and the Bears in OT (and let's not forget Bears nearly lost at Arizona, lost at Miami. Totally different on the road) A final minute over the Nick Mullens led 49ers. A wild shoot out vs Tampa and back up QB Fitzharris before Winston came in. 7 straight losses. A last minute win over a backup QB. A wild-shoot out over a backup QB and the worse defense in the league. A loss to Philly. An OT win. And a gift bag of Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson. Oh Christmas came early for sure for the GMEN. Give me Tennessee all day with extra rest. They will run over the soft Giants all afternoon. 10* Money Bomb TENNESSEE TITANS 

Taking the VIKINGS. This is it for Minny. Had these clowns Monday night and they were brutal. Canned their OC who was suppose to be the 'hot' name for one of the soon to be opened HC jobs in the NFL. Well. The smart money ain't on that happening now. I like this spot based on 2 things. One - that poor MNF performance and the canning of the OC and two. How about the clouds that Miami is coming in on? Nowhere to go but to have that bubble burst. Now. As having the Patriots last week I am shocked that they didn't try to get 7 and instead settle for a FG. Heck. Run another run play and have them try to go 97 yards or whatever. So- Miami off a huge win and could be a flat spot. Desperate Vikes need to win out. How about Dolphins 1-10 SU last 11 on the road. Yikes. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the RAVENS. I know what everyone is thinking. Laying points like this with Lamar Jackson, and off that brutal OT game vs KC. I get it. You are worried. Well don't be. This Tampa defense, if it is plays more for the run, will give up chunks of yards, and enough points for a 10pt win. Did you miss the collapse last week (we got a miracle cover with NO) - plenty of mistakes to go around. Special teams looked like garbage. OL fell apart. Winston doing Winston things. How is that going to fly vs this Ravens defense coming in angry, vs a team that will be out of it's element and quite frankly, not a good team. As good as this TB QB combo is putting up 31 TD passes, they also have 24 INTs. I am sure we see at least 2 turnovers this afternoon. Tampa 2-12 SU last 14 on the road including a 3-9 ATS run in their most recent 12 games.  In 6 road games this season - 40 at New Orleans, 48 at Chicago, 34 at Atlanta, 37 at Cincinnati, 42 at Carolina, and 38 at NYG.  I know that this Baltimore team isn't the Greatest Show on Turf, but we will get our 30 today. 8* Sure Shot BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking the CHARGERS. Lost with these guys last week as they sleep-walked setting for FGs last Sunday. I get it short week. Big, bad KC with their awesome rookie QB. They didn't have an easy Sunday as the Ravens took them to OT. And what I really take away from that, and why I had this circled early in the season. The defense. Not the Chargers defense. But the Ravens defense. That is like the old-school Steelers, Seahawks defenses of past. Where you get hit on every play. And the next game you are just mush. Baltimore brings that type of defense every game. And they got it for a game, plus OT. The short home week doesn't help them much other than sleeping in their own beds. I have been on LAC all season. This is a good team. The offense behind Rivers will carve up this KC defense. The Chargers defense isn't terrible. I think they can make some plays here. Bonus with the 3.5, but I won't be shocked at an outright win tonight. 8* Sure Shot LA CHARGERS 

Taking GREEN BAY. Not over thinking here. Dome team in cold weather. Aaron Rodgers gets his coach fired and I expect a huge day. Not just for him, but the entire offense. Defense is what it is. This is really a dead number - I don't think this is a FG game. This is GB running away by 2+ TDs as the Falcons, already sitting in last place, see their season slip away further. 10* Money Bomb GREEN BAY PACKERS. 

Taking the PATRIOTS. I am sure the 20 something people ahead of me in the Super Contest will be on the home dogs. They see Miami's 27-20 win last year and think more of the same. Well, we here Brady talking about how Dolphins play good and we don't in Miami. I am expecting more of what we have seen in 3 of the last 4 encounters between these two teams. They have been 35-7, 35-17 and 35-14. 5* Best Bet NE PATRIOTS 

Taking SEATTLE. Will lay this. Seattle hurt me last week as we had Caroline. Our only loser on a 7-1 Sunday of NFL action. This SF team has hit hard times. The offense is terrible. Can't see them putting up 14 here vs the Seahawks who look they are ready for a playoff push. Seattle 10-2-1 ATS last 13 in the series. Mullins or Beathard vs Wilson. I was never a huge Wilson fan. But the guy is great. Seattle going away 30-13. 5* Best Bet SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

Taking the FALCONS. I actually took these guys early on one of my NJ Apps at +3. No way in heck should Lamar Jackson be favored here. Give me Ryan at home all day long. 11-3-1 ATS as dog or Pk.  I know Ravens have some defense in play. But Atlanta is not a bad team. I look for them to bounce back today. Baltimore hitting the road. A lot different in the dome vs these guys. Extra rest for the Dirty Birds. 8* Sure Shot ATLANTA FALCONS 

Taking the RAMS. The door to the 1 seed has reopened. LA fresh off their bye. This could get ugly. McVay has no problem running things up. We will see 40+ this afternoon. 10* Money Bomb LA RAMS 

Taking BALTIMORE. Looking to really move a bit here on the Ravens. Last week I took it right on the chin backing Arizona. What the heck are the Raiders doing winning games when they need that top draft pick? Oh. Carr says screw the draft, he wants to win. Well why I won't be shocked one bit when he is on the bench at halftime in say, a 16-3 game. He isn't going to be in Vegas. Gruden will be. Now from Arizona out the east coast vs a desperate Ravens squad. A bunch of 5-5 teams in the AFC. Baltimore needs to notch a win. Raiders had lost 5 straight games by at least 14 points before pulling out the W last week. I see this in the 27-13 range. 5* Best Bet BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking the PATRIOTS. Both teams in off bye weeks. Both in off losses. Pats on the road vs Titans as we backed Tennessee and their NE connections to a nice dog outright. Jets crushed at home by Bills. HC match-up is a complete mismatch. And one of them is having a rough go of things lately. NE has covered 3 of 4 off bye weeks and 13 of 17 off SU losses. Laying double digits to a division foe who plays you tough is a tricky spot. But as we toss in a rookie QB and the total state of Jets, a clearer picture comes into focus. At 7-3 NE has its work cut out for them if they want to be the 1 seed. It is a crowded room as Pitt 7-2-1, Houston 7-3, Chargers 7-3 are all looking at the 9-2 Chiefs. I'm thinking NE 27-13 with a couple of INTs by whoever is under center for NYJ. 8* Sure Shot NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking CAROLINA as our Top 10* today. Last we saw Seattle, they were beating the Packers for all the world to see. Extra rest helps the cross-country trip. But still a 10am body clock game. Panthers last see costing us bankroll in a game vs Detroit. Look. I have had Seattle as a rebuilding club all year. That isn't changing. Carolina at home is a big step up from win-less on the road Green Bay. Cam is usually on the money in his home games. I see this as a 10 point win for us. 10* Money Bomb CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Taking the SAINTS, and will look for a 20+ point win. Look. Had these guys last week. And they rolled. And it looked like they went easy on Philly. Falcons in off loss to Dallas. We had the Cowboys and the points (lost the Over though). This is it for Atlanta. For you to be on the Falcons you have to be thinking they win out. They need to win their final 6 games for 10 wins and a playoff spot. They still have games at GB, Carolina and TB. And before you laugh at Tampa, just look at the points they put up. Plus games at home vs Baltimore and Arizona. And to tell you the truth, that isn't really weighing all that much on my play here. Rams won on Monday night. And for NO to hold that tie-breaker edge and home field through playoffs, they need to win. And this team isn't a win by a point team. Brees is on another level right now. He should carve up this defense like we will be carving up our Turkeys and Hams 3 hours prior to this kick-off. New Orleans again will toy with dropping a 50 spot. The sites don't have first half lines - But I can see NO jumping out to a fast lead by half-time if you want to sprinkle something on that. At this points, Saints really can just name their score vs teams. I think they want this 40pt streak to continue. The spots where I think NO is ripe for being picked off (though I was wrong at Cincy) is possibly Dallas next week or, playing their 3rd straight game at Carolina in 3 weeks. 5* Best Bet NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the VIKINGS. Going ML. If you want to buy the 2.5 to 3, I guess that is fine. I just don't think we need the points. A nice spot with Minny coming off their bye. Playing better winning 4 of their last 5. Finally getting healthy. This is a great story going on in Chicago. Might be the only time that the Bears face a defense that is probably as good as theirs - Vikes can bring it on that side of the ball. Trubisky having a nice year. But the offense really gets rolling off the defense making plays. Bears missed 2 PATs and FGs last week. That can come back to haunt you vs good teams. This Minny team was suppose to be a top flight NFC contender. Like Zimmer to get it done on the road. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the SAINTS. We faded NO last week and it cost us. Otherwise, we have pegged these guys all season long. This line is moving. Not surprising really. Eagles O didn't look good vs Dallas. And Saints D is not as good as the Cowboys defense. But at home, Brees and the New Orleans will do damage. Golden Tate will probably score a TD this week. There is a nice prop bet if you can find it. But I don't think that Philly can slow down this machine right now. Rush, pass. Doesn't matter. NO finds ways to put points on the board. Take out a 34 game vs the Giants, and the Philly high water mark is 24 points. Not enough bullets for this battle. Scoring 22 a game and giving up 20 will get you exactly what the Eagles are. A 4-5 team. They got very hot and rode it all the way to a Super Bowl Championship. Well - things seem to lining up perfectly for a Saints run as they scored at least 40 in 5 of their nine games. A little luck doesn't hurt either. And they have been falling into their share of breaks along the way. Just 2 losses their last 11 home games. Tough stopping this group in the dome. 5* Best Bet NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking ARIZONA. Yeah. Tough taking a 2 win team to win by 6 points. But they are playing the Raiders. The Raiders who have score 6,3,3 in 3 of their last 4 games. 5 straight losses of 14 or more points. It really comes down to this for me - Oakland is clearly 'tanking'. They want the #1 Pick. They won't get that by beating a team h2h and tying them with 2 wins.  The trades of Mack and Cooper, waiving Irvin. Clear signs this team is done. I think everyone has checkout. For Arizona, a tough year sure. But they have their franchise QB. They also have a new OC who is looking to spice things up a bit. He has David Johnson who is still a stud RB. HOF Fitzgerald who should find some space vs this terrible Oakland secondary. Cards 5-1-1 ATS run shows no quit even with their poor record. *Sure Shot ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Taking the CHARGERS. Had these guys last week. And even sleepwalking they managed to cover double digits. This just seems like a different all around team. Still don't like their kicking game, but man oh man, what a year from Rivers. Let's not forget Gordon either. The RB is having a great year rushing, and catching the ball. First 'home' game for LAC in 6 weeks! Remember London. They are 7-1 here at Stub Hub. Neither of these coaches are at the top of any of my lists. Maybe worse NFL lists. Broncos in the midst of a terrible year. I think Vance Joseph is out the door in January. When I see Denver I see 2 pt loss vs Houston (home0, 7pt loss on road to KC, 3 point loss to Rams (home), 4 pt loss to KC (Home) -- Plus 1 pt win at home over Oakland, 3pt win at home over Seattle. Yes. They are 'in' games. And losing is a reflection on the coach. You think Case is happy about trading WR Thomas? How the heck is he matching big-plays from Rivers today? 34-16 loss at Jets. 27-14 loss at Ravens.. That is what we will be seeing from Denver this afternoon. 10* Money Bomb LA CHARGERS 

Taking the GIANTS. So. Going ugly here. What worries me is this line moving up a half point. I don't really like that too much. I know that SF looked good last Thursday vs the Raiders. But, it was the Raiders. New York in off their bye week. You have to think that they are going to get Barkley more touches. Kid is electric. And that will open things up for Eli to at least complete pass to another unworldly talent in ODB. And I say that as someone who can't stand the G-Men. But those 2 guys are great. I know the race is on for a top pick, but this team has too many veterans and attitudes to mail it in. I saw 2 spots with conflicting SF trends. 2-9-1 ATS last 12 as a fave and 1-12 ATS last 13 as fave. So maybe they used different closing numbers. In taking NYG, I am under the impression that their HC gets away from relying on Eli and moves more to the RB he took at the top of the draft. Rested dog gets the call in Prime Time. 5* Best Bet NY GIANTS 

Taking the PACKERS. Not a fan of laying double digits that's for sure. Especially with a coach I hate. And this guy ranks up there with his brothers from Dallas, Chargers and Denver. But this QB is a beast. He actually is getting some RB help. I like when A-Aron is angry. This Miami team is like a JV club coming to town after the Patriots and Rams. Miami does have a pretty schedule if you look at records and who they have to play. They are projected to be a AFC 6 seed. GB with Seattle and Minny on deck. They can't overlook an AFC team. They can't overlook anyone when you are 3-4. Dolphins needed a lot of extra help, as in 4 INTs to get a win over the Jets (Miami my Top 10 LW)- And I am grateful for the win. But that shouldn't inspire much confidence as they come to a cold city with Brock leading the troops. If Osweiler keeps Miami in striking distance I will really be shocked. 5* Best Bet GB PACKERS 

Taking the CHARGERS. Yes. Very tough laying this with the Chargers since I can't stand their HC and I don't think they know they need a placekicker to score points. But it is clear that the Raiders are checked out and looking forward to Vegas. Picking up draft picks and cutting vets. Rivers having a monster year. Gordon back. LAC can name their score. I'm thinking something like 27-6. 8* Sure Shot LA CHARGERS  (took me 3 times to write this as I keep putting SD instead of LA) 

Taking the BENGALS. Now. We are 6-1 when betting Saints game. Had TB in Game 1, lost our fade of them vs NYG. In this spot, I will again go against them. More a situational spot more than anything. NO comes in winners of 7 straight. A tough come from behind win over Baltimore on the road. And ugly win at Minny. Then, shooting out to a fast lead, only to the Rams tie it up at 35, before winning by 10. That is an emotional run the last couple weeks. And, Super Bowl Champion, Philadelphia Eagles on deck. Losing out of conference isn't a bad loss by any stretch. Maybe a slight look ahead. Cincy in off their bye week. Dome team outdoors. Bengals quietly the most efficient red-zone team in the league. Again. Ravens missed a PAT that would have forced OT. Vikes turned the ball over at the worse time. Rattling off 10 points after a Rams rally. You need some luck to go along with talent to win. But you can't get that every time you suit up. 10* Money Bomb CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Going OVER the total. Both teams off their bye weeks. Both pretty desperate to get their offenses going. Defenses are the strength of both squads. Something tells me though we see some new wrinkles. Dallas actually playing well this season at home. I won't be shocked if they get 30 themselves. This is the second lowest line this week. I have this at mid to high 40s. 5* Total Money OVER Titans/ Cowboys 

Taking the COWBOYS. I know a lot of people all over Titans. Right off the bat, gut tells me to go opposite of that thinking. I like Dallas. Am a fan. Hate their HC. Guy wasted Romo's career. Can't manage the clock, timeouts and plays to tie instead of winning. Even after that, I will lay the number tonight. Both teams off byes. A reason why I a like the over, which was 40.5 when I put it out, now 40, even a 39.5 creeping up. I think out of the bye we see some more wrinkles in the offenses. Points will be scored. The Cooper trade - people have opinions on. Getting out of Oakland will help. Dak can throw the ball. I think this is a good pickup. Won't be shocked when he scores a TD on MNF. Just him on the field will open things up for Zeke out of the backfield. I think Dallas gets over 30 tonight. At 6.5, I was leaning Titans early, now at 4. Last home game 40-7 over Jacksonville. Everyone moving on Tennessee now has me heading to cash my ticket in the opposite direction. 5* Best Bet DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the PATRIOTS. First to admit we scored a gift cover on Monday night with the New England. Sure did look NE was going through the motions against the Bills. Not doing anything fancy. FGs all over the place. Just enough to escape with the win. While last we saw GB fighting to the absolute bitter end vs the Rams. That kind of loss hurts. Hurts so much they cut people. Rodgers is one of the best. Brady arguably The Best. Cross Country back to back road games. Tough for sure as the Packers head to Gillette. Do you really feel comfortable backing McCarthy over The Hoodie? He'll do something stupid. Pats by 10. 8* Sure Shot NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the SAINTS. Been on this New Orleans money train for a couple weeks now. Last week we get the cash and Brees basically takes the day off. Nice road wins in Minny and Baltimore for us. We crushed them over the Redskins. We have a pretty good feel of this club right now. Rams a good team. Probably the 2 best teams in the NFC battling it out today. But we have seen the Rams secondary get abused by A-Aron, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Phillip Rivers. Brees will put up points. This game is a PK. We just have to win. Not like we are laying 3-4-5 or more. 10* Money Bomb NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the VIKINGS. So, we had the Saints on Sunday and even though the scoreboard was all New Orleans, Minny wasn't terrible. If you tell anyone that Brees is tossing for 120 yards - that Ingram and Kamara are going 26 for 108, I would be worries NO is run out of town. But, turnovers hurt. So this is now a huge game for the Vikings. And normally, I might be thinking of taking the Lions. Heck. We lost with them last week. And have been on, and off them, in previous games. What really sticks out for me is that Detroit has thrown in the towel.  As I write this they just trade their best WR in Golden Tate- Maybe there is a good reason. But at 3-4, with Minny 4-3-1 and Bears 4-3 GB 3-4-1 ahead of them, why send up the white flag? I don't get it one bit. A big take away from Sunday was the way Minny defended the run. And now the Lions will really lean on RB Kerryon Johnson. Again. Back to Minny being in a desperate spot. While Detroit looks to me they are throwing in the towel. 5* Best Bet MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Taking the DOLPHINS. So - I was looking at the under in this game and saying how the Jets, barring that 48 spot at Detroit opening night, have scored 17-12-10 their other 3 road games. 20-12 back in September when these guys played. Brock, Tannehill. I mean for me, it doesn't matter. I have seen Brock put 23-21-28 up in his 3 games. NYJ missing some key guys. Powell gone for year. WRs Enunwa down and Anderson banged up. CB Johnson limited. Stills is probably out for Miami. I just think we see a big RB attack from Gore and Drake from the Dolphins. That keeps the pressure to a minimum on Brock. Miami with the extra rest of the loss at Houston. Can't discount that time to brush up on a rookie QB and his habits. 10* AFC East GOY MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking the SAINTS. Yes. Tough taking a team in back to back to roadies. Especially they won they battled back. How much do they have in the tank? Well. I don't ever sell Brees short. Guy is a beast. No way in hell do these forget that miracle playoff win for Minny last year. (I had Minny!) But this Vikings team as well as they have played of late, to me, a paper tiger. 3 INTs of rookie Darnold. 1 INT from rookie Rosen. And I love this HC. You know this. Had them both of those weeks. But the injury bug has me concerned here. Brees is going to put points up even on good defenses. And he has a RB combo that alleviates a lot of pressure. Minny missing Joseph is tough. Barr adds to it. Rhodes is whipped cream on top. Normally, missing a guy won't really have anything to do with my thought process (unless it is a QB). But the collective of those 3 hurt the defense. And New Orleans, coming in with bad memories, is not a team you want to come in under manned against. Tough road coming from Baltimore and with Rams on deck. But I am siding with the road team to win this thing. 5* Best Bet NO SAINTS 

Taking the REDSKINS. The sell off is on for the Giants. Now, I did have them ML on Monday night. Put a fork in them. ODB is going to have a tantrum. Eli will be hitting the bench. Sitting at 1-6, the life has been sucked out of the season. Send in the clowns. Washington off a win because Jason Garrett still doesn't know how to coach. Skins have to smell blood in the water against their hated rivals. I can't see New York 'circling the wagons' to save the season. Not happening. All in on the Redskins Sunday afternoon. 10* Money Bomb WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Taking the LIONS. Cashed these guys last week as our Top 10* Money-Bomb - Will roll with them as a Best Bet today. Detroit has been in the money the last 5 weeks. We have been all over with this team. Faded them vs Jets, NE, Dallas. Backed them vs GB and Miami. And here we are again. This is quietly a decent team. Seattle gets a lot of love. Yes, they are off their bye week. Last we saw them beating up the Raiders in England. I am not sold. Russell Wilson is great. I give that guy a lot of crap, but man, he is an excellent player. By himself, makes this team competitive. What I have liked as the season has progressed from Detroit is the run game. And the fact they are finally using it to help Stafford. Lions have to be confident that they can make a move in the division. I know there are many on Seattle. Matt Patricia stole a Super Bowl from Carroll with that INT. Cowboys lucked into a win over these guys or Detroit would have 4 straight wins. Buying on the small home fave. 5* Best Bet DETROIT LIONS

Taking the COWBOYS. Had Dallas last week in nice upset win, and will grab them again. They have had a good run vs the Redskins. But this is a bit of a different, on both sidelines. Also cashed with Washington last week. That was easy money after they were destroyed by the Saints (we had NO) on Monday night. Nobody ever as bad, or good, as they look the week before. And saying that, I really like what I saw from Dak. You all know I hate this Dallas HC. Guy wasted Romo for years. He was going to do the same with Dak. For whatever reason, the offense is coming along. It improved in the Lions game before the HC got scared and played not lose. Then he played not to lose again and lost against Houston. Elliot is a beast. The OL is still pretty good. The run game should dictate the outcome here. Dallas D does get pressure on the QB -  8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the SAINTS. Almost went +135 on the ML here. NO comes in off their bye week. Ravens home after 3 tough road games. Now normally, I am fading the Saints outside, especially in the cold weather cities. But we aren't in the bad weather or the extreme cold yet. And in case you haven't noticed, the Saints have a pair of RBs so their HOF QB does not need to throw for 450 yards a game. Ravens defense, stingy, to say the least. But this is a tough assignment to come home to. 7-1-1 ATS off their bye week are the New Orleans Saints. Mariota, Mayfield, Keenum, Allen/Peterman. Not exactly elite QBs of the league. Cincy on the short week doesn't really rate into my thinking. Saints clicking right now and have to grab the points. 5* Best Bet NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Taking the PATRIOTS. So NE has lost at the Jags (revenge spot their Super Bowl) and at Detroit (vs old DC in a desperate spot). Oh. Patriots also didn't have much at the WR position. Yes, they are off a wild one against KC. But this Bears team is not in that offensive level. But the defense is elite. Or it was until facing the Brocketman in Miami. Bears blew a win at Green Bay. Eked by the Cardinals. Walloped Tampa, and beat a Seattle team that I really don't what to think of. I know that the Patriots take zero games off. NE was up 24-9 before over KC. I see a trendy Bears 8-1-1 ATS home dog run. But some of those lines were easily double this number. Are the Patriots not winning on the road this year? NE 14-5 ATS last 19 on the road. I know that the trendy, and 'wise guy' move will be to play on the Bears. But like the spot we took NE at home over the Dolphins, if the dynasty is truly over, then I will go down with it in this game. 5* Best Bet NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Taking the LIONS. So Detroit HC was a DC for Pats in the AFC East and may have a bit of insight to Miami. Brock behind center again. And listen. Somehow, we cashed Miami last week as a home dog with him starting. And I will gladly take that. But we have Detroit, off their bye week in town. So after they edged out GB at home on some missed FGs, they got to relax and in the process the 'let-down game' to follow is pushed aside. Instead, they get film on a guy, a QB, who got a 72 MILLION Dollar contract from the Texans. Who benched him that same year for, Tom Savage! Then was traded to the Browns, who released him!! 5 teams (Denver twice) in 5 years. That alone has me fading the Dolphins. I think Miami has a decent defense. But the Lions will do enough to get us out of here with the cover this afternoon. 10* Money Bomb DETROIT LIONS 

Taking the PATRIOTS. Not going to jump on the trending dog in this spot. Going with the veteran HOFer to win this one by 10. I'm not saying KC isn't a decent team or Mahomes isn't good. But beating the Chargers who find new ways to lose every week, a struggling Steelers team, the Niners, pulling out a late win at Denver and getting 5 TOs from the Jags isn't putting them to the top of my charts. Especially with the worse defense in the league giving up over 460 yards a game. Patriots with extra rest last covering for us on Thursday night vs Colts. Also with revenge from opening day loss last year. 8* Sure Shot NE PATRIOTS 

Taking the DOLPHINS. So, wasn't that long ago we faded the Bears on the road against Arizona. Will do the same today. Can't trust Mitch as a favorite on the road. This Miami team has been pretty good as we try to forget blowing a 17-0 lead on the road last week. Yes, Bears off their bye week. But I think that hurts them as they looked unstoppable in that 48-10 destruction of Tampa. People love what they see. They see Miami blowing leads and the Bears scoring 40+. Have to grab the home dogs. 5* Best Bet MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Taking the BROWNS. Tough, I know. You look up for a Top Play and it is on a team with 1 win the last 2 years. But we get the Chargers playing on the East Coast clock. They have a game in London up next. Where is the enthusiasm. We had the Chargers last week and they did not disappoint. And I do hate backing this HC. But there is zero quit in the players. Are these guys the cardiac kids or what? Tie vs Pitt. Last second loss to the Saints. Late TD for the win over the Jets. Wild shootout in OT vs Raiders. A OT win with 2 seconds on the clock last week. They sure don't make it easy for the fans. 10* Money Bomb CLEVELAND BROWNS 

Taking the GIANTS tonight. Now. I know you are wondering why we aren't just getting some +130 ML with the G-Men. Well, you should already know that I hate both of these teams. But I don't let my heart or feelings really get in the way of backing teams that make me ill. Plus, these are the Giants. I crashed and burned with them in home dog spot vs the Saints where they failed to show up. Then they rip my heart out last week as they put up a fight vs Carolina. What I am 100% certain of is fading the Eagles. I said this last year after Wentz went down. How could they say he would be ready by the start of the season. It's now mid-October and he still looks out of sync. Their WR situation doesn't help. Nor does the depleted RB field. Home dogs I believe are along the lines of 16-7 so far this NFL season. We have cashed with them plenty of times. Eagles now 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as faves. NYG 6-3 ATS last 9 as division home puppies. Both teams in the proverbial 'must win' spot. But only 1 is the home dog in this bitter rivalry. 5* Best Bet NY GIANTS

Taking DALLAS. A battle for Texas. With arguably the 2 worse coaches in NFL. Though fans of the Browns, Chargers, Broncos and Cardinals might chip in their two cents. Garrett plays scared and what should have been a Cowboys cover for us turns into a loser. But for the Texans, well O'Brian really takes the cake. I will be on the Under 45 here also. Since I think we see a steady diet of Elliot from Dallas. When he isn't pounding the ball, I think we see him catch about 10 passes out to he backfield. Cowboys have a decent defense. Better than the Texans clinging to their history. After their OT win snapped a 9 game slide, Houston now a 2-12 run their last 14. 2-12! (4-10 ATS) I know Watson is suppose to be the savior for the Texans. They need OT at Indy to get to 1-3 this year. Can't trust them as a fave. We are catching a hook which helps the cause. 8* Sure Shot DALLAS COWBOYS 

Taking the LIONS. Easy to look at this and say, oh man, Rodgers and the Pack just have to win! Easy money. Look. Not that I think the Lions are some great team. They burned me last week as I had the Cowboys. But the Dallas defense is better than this GB bunch. And let's call it the way it is. If the Bears didn't choke away opening night, Packers can be sitting with 1 win right now. They didn't look good in Washington. Think Stafford takes advantage of his WR edge on the secondary this afternoon. 10* Money Bomb DETROIT LIONS 

Taking the PANTHERS. Had the Giants last week and they laid an egg at home. Now they face Carolina off their bye week. Give me the rested team. Not happy with the line, but will still back Cam and friends. This NYG team has had trouble now for the last couple years scoring. Panthers always bring defense to the party. Should be a 10pt win for the home team today. 5* Best Bet CAROLINA PANTHERS

Late add here at about 930 Sunday morning. Taking the STEELERS. Yeah, we are going 10*. I was tossing and turning on this all week. Simple cause both teams 'need' a win was one of the reasons I chose to try and avoid it. But as I get ready for my sons football game today, I think of his teams advantages. And I just can't not think of how Big Ben has the WRs to destroy this leaky Falcons secondary. We saw it last week in their home loss. We saw it the week before in their home OT loss. Now a dome team is outside vs an always physical bunch coming off being humiliated at home on SNF. 10* Money Bomb PITTSBURGH STEELERS 

Taking the RAVENS. Not sold one bit on the Steelers. Baltimore cashed for us nicely last week, (had Bucks on MNF). Ravens 5-1-1 last 7 ATS in the series. Pitt won both last year. Probably see some points tonight, but in the end, we get that outright win. 5* Best Bet BALTIMORE RAVENS 

Taking the GIANTS. You have to know by now how much I hate NY. But I am not blinded by my heart. They have some major problems. For me here, all about the spot for the Saints. Off a huge OT win at Atlanta. Division rival. Now back to back roadies. Home dog who finally got a win last week as a dog. Saints defense is far from decent and even farther from good. This NY team still has some weapons. Barring a huge shift in weather, (not calling for winds), this game should be wild one. We have cashed fading the Saints in Week 1, and playing them in Week 3. What is clear in all 3 games. They could easily be 3-0 or 0-3. Don't think they should be favored, especially outside on the road. 8* Sure Shot NEW YORK GIANTS