5*Boston College +7

Two weeks ago, BC got smoked 48-24 as 18.5-point home chalk. I think they learned their lesson and have been waiting to play at home ever since that game ended. I love playing BC in conference games as the Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in this role of late. I think the line should be closer to 5, so I'm taking the points with Boston College.

5*Toledo +2.5

This is a tough travel spot for BYU after playing four straight Power 5 schools. My super computer agrees and calls for a 2-point win by the Rockets. The Cougars have been outgained by 290 yards in their four games combined. The wrong team is favored. Take the points with the better defense at home!

5*Mississippi Rebels -2

This is a huge spot for the home team knowing they play Alabama next week. The Rebels catch California off a phony 23-17 win against North Texas as 14-point home chalk. California was outgained by 51 yards and have been outgained in two straight. This is the first road game for the Golden Bears outside the Pacific time zone. California has to play a 9:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity down south. The Golden Bears play Arizona State next week. Ole Miss has the the talent to win this game by 3 or more points! 

5*Northwestern +9.5

The total is around 38 points. I will almost always take the underdog if getting more than a TD with any NCAAF total below 43 points. The underdog in Northwestern games is on a 12-1-1 run. Michigan State was upset last week and the public is betting on a bounce back effort. This line opened at 6.5 points. Michigan State is 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games as a favorite. At this current number, I'm take the home underdog in this spot.

4*Virginia -7

This is the first time that Virginia is favored to win against FSU. Rightfully so in my opinion. Two programs heading in opposite directions. FSU is coming off an emotional OT win last week. Virginia has this game circled all Summer. A chance to beat up on a former powerhouse. The Cavs won easily (despite -3 turnovers) in last week's blowout win over William & Mary. If Virginia was a stock they would be a strong buy right now. Finally, my super computer has Virginia covering 7 points rather easily. Still, just a 4 unit play.

10*Air Force +5

The Buffalos are off two a 2-0 start after that 17-point comeback win in OT against Nebraska. That was the only time they led in the game. I think Air Force will treat this game as their "Championship" playing an in-state rival they never get to play. These teams have't met since 1974. I was 2 years old. Air Force has two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Love it. Colorado has been outgained in both victories. With Colorado's Pac-12 opener next week at Arizona State, I believe the Falcons can win this game outright. The early start time (11:00 AM locally) benefits the rested team. Take the road team plus the points.

4*Wake Forest -2.5

This will be North Carolina's third game in 13 days. Tough. The Tar Heels upset the Hurricanes as 5-point underdogs despite getting outgained by 99 yards. Red flag. College Football teams are cashing just under 40% after upsetting Miami in the first two weeks of the season. Take Wake Forest minus the small number.

10*Fresno State +3.5

I think this line is out of whack. The Bulldogs outgained USC despite losing 31-23 last week. Minnesota defeated South Dakota state 28-21 despite getting outgained by 59 yards. Last year, Minnesota defeated the Bulldogs thanks to an amazing interception in the end zone. Minnesota will be playing this game (7:30 PM local time) with a 9:30 PM body clock time. The Gophers are 2-10 SU in their past 12 games away from Minneapolis. Fresno State is 28-4-1 SU in home openers. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.  

4*Northwestern +6.5

Stanford returns just nine starters with a shaky offensive line. They have no idea which QB will start for NW. That's a big advantage for the Wildcats. I think Hunter Johnson gets the call after transferring from Clemson. The Wildcats have been awesome as road underdogs going 27-9 ATS since 2008. Take the road team plus the points.

5*Toledo Rockets +12

Last year, the Wildcats enjoyed their most successful season in over 40 years. Kentucky lost five players to the NFL including all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and top 5 NFL draft pick DE Josh Allen. The Wildcats rank #114 in returning production. These teams have been major fade bait as double-digit chalk to begin the season. Speaking of chalk, Kentucky is 2-11 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons. Toledo averaged 40.4 points last year and should reach that mark once again. The Rockets should be able to score enough points to keep this one close.  

5*BYU +6

This will be the Cougars best team in quite some time. Utah is loaded as well, especially the front seven. BYU has a very strong offensive line to begin the season, which is key in this matchup. Last season, Utah defeated BYU 35-27 as 10.5-point chalk despite getting outgained 357-296. The Cougars blew a 20-point lead, thus I believe have this game circled to being the season. Seven of the past eight meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer. BYU ended last season by outgaining their opponent in seven straight games. Take the Cougars plus the points on Thursday night.

5*Ohio State -6.5

This one looks simple to me. I like the Buckeyes to win this Rose Bowl as they will enjoy a huge talent advantage in this one. Actually, Michigan is built similar to this Huskies' squad. You all saw what happened. Blowout. Urban Meyer is 11-3 SU and 11-3 ATS in his Bowl game career. Ohio State went 7-1 SU against other Bowl teams while Washington went 6-3 SU. Ohio State is 15-4 SU and 15-4 ATS against the Pac 12 since 1993. Look for Ohio State to win the final game of Meyer's Buckeyes' career.

4*Pittsburgh U +5.5

5*Nevada +2

The Wolf Pack should be pumped-up to play in its first Bowl game in three years. They should enjoy a significant home-field advantage too. Arkansas State is allowing 7.6 yards per play against other Bowl teams. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. The Red Wolves went 0-4 SUATS and were outgained in three of the four games. Nevada is allowing 6.0 yards per play against other Bowlers. Respectable. The Wolf Pack went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS vs. fellow Bowlers. Nevada is 8-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the past three seasons. Take the points!

10*Syracuse +1.5

West Virginia came up just short of playing in the Big 12 Title game and will now play without QB Will Grier and their best offensive lineman. Jack Allison will start and he's only attempted 10 passes this season. Syracuse hasn't played in a Bowl game since 2013, and will be looking to reach 10+ wins since 2001. Hugh motivational edge favors Syracuse. Western Virginia is 7-27 SU in Bowl games since 1987, including 0-5 ATS L5 under Dana Holgorsen. Take the Orange to win easily!  

5*Baylor Bears +4.5

The Commodores played only a slightly tougher schedule than the Bears. Baylor won 1 game last season and now they are playing in the Texas Bowl. The Bears matchup with the Commodores at every level and should enjoy a home field advantage with Waco, Tx about 185 miles away. Vandy went 2-6 SU against other Bowl teams. Vandy has covered 5 straight games to end the regular season. That's a sweet fade in this bowl game. I'm taking the points with the better offense and defense!

5*Duke +4.5

The Blue Devils are coming off an ugly 59-7 loss against Wake Forest in the last game of the regular season. That's the worst loss in David Cutcliffe's 17-year head coaching career. The players love the guy and the entire team should be pumped up. Ed Foley will coach this game for Temple. He coached Temple two years ago in a bowl game and it wasn't pretty. Temple lost outright to Wake Forest as 11-point chalk. Temple has struggled against dual-threat QB's this season and QB Daniel Jones should thrive in this spot. Finally, Cutcliffe is 9-2 ATS in Bowl Games. Take the dog!

5*Troy +2.5

I think Buffalo U will be flat after blowing a 29-10 lead in the MAC championship game. Lance Leipold will be coaching in his very first bowl game. Advantage Troy. The Trojans should have a huge crowd edge. Advantage Troy. Troy went 3-2 SU against other bowl teams. Don't forget MAC bowlers are 1-10 SU of late. The Trojans are looking for 10+ wins for 3 straight years. Take the dog! 

5*Florida International +6.5

FIU QB James Morgan is a Bowling Green transfer. He threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns vs. the Rockets last year. FIU head coach Butch Davis is 6-2 ATS in bowl games. The Golden Panthers should be well represented in the stands as the team is only 180 miles away from home. Toledo, OH is close to 1,200 miles away. Toledo scored 107 points combined in their past two games and now must travel to play a bowl game. Tough. FIU is 6-1 ATS off a loss against a Conference Rival in their past seven tries. Take the dog!

5*UAB Blazers -1.5

The Blazers played their first Bowl game since 2004 last season. It showed, as they got annihilated 41-6 by Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. They should be super focused in this one. I believe UAB owns the better offense and defense. I have them rated 3.5 points better than Northern Illinois on a neutral field. We have tremendous value at this current number. Northern Illinois is 6-18 ATS when playing on a neutral field, including 3-8 ATS in Bowl games since 1993. The Huskies average just 5.4 yards per passing attempt. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. UAB wins their first Bowl game in school history. Lay it!

4*Middle Tenn State +7

App State had a tremendous season but will have an interim head coach calling the shots. This will the final game for the father/son head coach QB duo. Brent Stockstill is a 4-year senior and his skill set plays well in College. The Blue Raiders played a tough non-conference schedule playing 3 SEC teams. I think they will keep this one close.

5*Fresno State -4

I have the Bulldogs rated significantly higher (6 points on a neutral field) than the Sun Devils. Fresno State is allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense while Arizona State is allowing 5.7 per play.  Fresno State should be motivated in this game as they want to end the season with 12 wins. In 2012, the Bulldogs had 11 wins going into their bowl game and lost 43-10 to SMU. This game will be played on turf. The Bulldogs played 12 games on turf this season and went 10-2 SU. The Sun Devils played three games on turf and went 1-2 SU. The Sun Devils have numerous injuries and key players that will not participate in this game. Arizona State is just 5-10 SU and 5-10 ATS in bowl games since 1993. Fresno State is 27-10 ATS in all games over the past three seasons. Lay it! 

5*Texas +8

Wow. This line seems super inflated to me. I would have made the game closer to 6. Texas has covered six straight against the Sooners. DFEI is defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Texas is ranked #45 while Oklahoma is ranked 94th at Football Outsiders. We get 8 points with the much better defense in a championship game. Solid. The Longhorns are 10-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three years. Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival and 2-5 ATS on a neutral field of late. Take the Longhorns in this upset maker.

5*BYU +12

The Utes are more focused on next week's Pac 12 Championship game in my opinion. BYU has outgained their opponent in five straight games while playing stingy defense. These two teams play tight games as 17 of the past 20 tilts have been decided by 7 points or less. The underdog is 15-5 ATS in the past 20 meetings. More of the same. Temps are expected to be in the low to mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain/snow. Winds 10-20 MPH. Take BYU plus the generous 12 points in this spot!

4*Ohio State +5

Now that the line has reached 5 points I have to take Ohio State. The public is all over Michigan at nearly a 70% clip. Take Ohio State in this upset maker!

5*Minnesota U -1

Minnesota plays much better at home and they need one more victory to become bowl-eligible. With Wisconsin on deck, the Golden Gophers should be super focused in their final home game. Northwestern has already secured a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. Not much to play for. Take the hungry host!

5*California +5.5

USC has won 14 consecutive games vs the Golden Bears. California brings in the better offense and defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 net yards per play. USC has cluster injuries in the secondary and they have UCLA on deck. California is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games after scoring less than 20 points. USC is 18-37-1 ATS in their past 56 games after a SU win. And that's when USC had better teams! Take the road dog in this upset maker.

4*Tennessee U +6.5

10*Indiana U  PK

Indiana has been waiting for this matchup all season. This is a big revenge game for the Hoosiers who lost last year 42-39, despite outgaining Maryland 483-345. Peyton Ramsey is completing 68% of his passes while Kasim Hill is completing a smidgen over 50%. QB play is huge in November, and with two weeks to prepare I really like Indiana in this spot. There are a lot of distractions on the Maryland campus right now. Don't forget, they played a very physical game last week vs. MSU. The Spartans rushed the ball 46 times for 269 yards and held the ball for almost 37 minutes. Huge advantage for the host playing with fresh legs. The Terps are 1-8 SU in November over the past three seasons. Indiana is a respectable 9-9 SU at home when not laying more than 2 points over the past three years. Maryland is ranked 278th in yards per game while Indiana is ranked 83rd. Unload on the host!

5*LSU +14.5

Both teams will be playing with rest. It will hurt Alabama who had all the momentum of being undefeated. Happens a lot in College Football. This line shocks me even with the first half suspension. I think the Tigers will have even more motivation. Alabama has played two teams in the Top 50, while LSU has played five Top 30 (not 50) teams already. There has never been a Top 4 team getting this many points at home. Never. Keep in mind that LSU has just one home loss by more than 10 points in their past 67 tilts. Alabama is just 3-5 ATS in weeks 10 thru 13 over the past three years. On the flip side, LSU is 6-2 ATS over that same time frame. The Tigers have been installed as an underdog 7 times in the past three years. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS when taking points. This is a classic overlay. Alabama wins but LSU gets the cash!

5*LA Tech +24

Battle of the Bulldogs. LA Tech covered against LSU as a big underdog and will now face a lesser team in my opinion. Flat spot for Miss State having played LSU & Texas A&M with Alabama on deck. LA Tech gave up two defensive TD's and that infamous 87- yard loss on a fumble in last year's matchup. The host is 2-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference foe of late, while LA Tech is 21-7 ATS as a road dog. I like the road Bulldogs plus the points.

4*Stanford -2.5

4*Missouri -7

4*Iowa +6

5*Mississippi State +7

The total is 44.5 points which suggests the game will be lower scoring. I will take the underdog with the better offense and defense. The Bulldogs average 5.8 yards per play while LSU averages 5.4 yards per play. The host is coming off an emotional upset victory against previously undefeated Georgia and will play Alabama after its BYE week. LSU is 0-2 ATS after a conference victory this season. More of the same. Take the Bulldogs!

5*Cincinnati U +4

The Bearcats are really good at running the ball (255.5 per game) while the Owls are ranked 108th against the run. Cincinnati is averaging 6.4 yards per play against much better competition while Temple is averaging 5.5 yards per play. Cincinnati is allowing just 270 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Really good. The Owls played a very physical game last week against Navy. The Midshipmen rushed the ball 53 times. I see advantages in the red-zone, kicking, and special teams for road team as well. Lets not forget the road team has two weeks to prepare while playing with triple revenge. Take the Bearcats before the line starts to go down.

5*Coastal Carolina -4

This will be UL Monroe's third straight road game and fifth road game in 6 weeks. Tough. Coastal Carolina has two weeks to prepare for this big revenger and welcomes pro-style QB Kilton Anderson back from his sprained ankle. Last year, UL Monroe defeated CC 51-43 despite getting outgained 441-344. Take the hungry host in a blowout!

5*Oregon +3.5

The Ducks will be pumped up with two weeks off to get over their meltdown against Stanford. I love the Oregon QB and I'm just not sold on this Washington team right now. Take the points!

5*Duke +3

This one is simple for me. Two weeks to prepare for the option and the Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS against option teams under their current head coach.

5*Mississippi State +4

The Bulldogs are coming off two listless games and the line is only 4 points. Trap. The public is backing the Tigers by a tune of 79%. Taking the points with the better offense and defense. The home crowd should be fired up in this upset maker. 

5*NC State -4.5

NC State has outgained their opponent in 9 straight games dating back to last season. Boston College is leaking oil having been outgained in their past two tilts. The Wolfpack has a lot of team speed something BC is lacking right now The Eagles come into this game "nicked" up on offense. The backups will be tested for sure. I'll take the host by at least a touchdown.

5*California Golden Bears +3 (-103)

  This will be the Ducks' fifth game in 28 days. Tough. They blew a 10-point lead with 3:12 left in the final quarter against Stanford only to lose in OT last week. That was a game they really wanted to win. I don't think this is a great spot for the Ducks considering the Golden Bears will be playing with two weeks to prepare. Last season, Oregon defeated California 45-24, while Outrushing them 328-8. That's right, the Golden Bears only had 8 rushing yards for the entire game. The home team is holding opponents QB to a 91.8 rating, while Oregon is allowing QB foes to pass at a 144.7 clip. That ranks in the bottom half for any winning team so far this season. Take the home dog in this one! 

4*BYU +17.5

4*Georgia Southern +3.5

4*Oregon Ducks +2.5

4*Vanderbilt +2.5

4*Purdue +7

10*Utah Utes +7

The Utes are a real team and have this game circled on their calendar. The Huskies already played their biggest game of the season in week one against Auburn. Utah has been holding back in terms of scheming in anticipation of this matchup. The Utes are 36-19 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points since 1993. Washington has a huge revenge game on deck against Arizona State. Take the home dog!

 4*TCU +13.5

4*Syracuse +3

4*Stanford -5.5

5*Kansas State +9.5

I like the head coach and this team returns nearly all of its personnel on offense. The Wildcats defense held their last 8 foes below their scoring average last season. Kansas State had a scare last week in winning 27-24 against South Dakota. Should be much more focused in this one. This game should be a lot closer than most people think. Take the home team!

5*Western Michigan +6

This is a best bet selection based solely on my Power ratings. Because this is the first game of the year for both teams, I have this game at Syracuse -3.5. I will take the overlay with the home team.

5*Alabama -3.5

I think the Crimson Tide will ride their experience and head coach to an easy victory. This line should be closer to 5. Georgia is coming off an emotional victory and now must travel back home to play a team on a mission after losing last year's Championship. Nick Saban has game planed extremely well against freshman QB's that are one-dimensional. I will swallow the 3.5 points and go with Alabama.

5*Miami U +6

Before the season started, I wrote about three College Football Spotlight teams which you can read at my website. The previous two (Michigan State & Texas) both won and covered their respected bowl games. Miami was my third. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up to play in the Orange Bowl at home. They've had tremendous success in this Bowl game and the fans will surely be on the Hurricanes' side. Wisconsin had its dream crushed in losing to Ohio State otherwise they would be in the playoffs. I think this line should be closer to 4. Don't forget ACC Bowl underdogs are 9-2 SU against Big 10 opponents. I will side with the Miami U plus the points.

10*New Mexico State +4.5

This should be named the Aggie Bowl. I believe the team from Las Cruces will be extremely motivated to win their first Bowl game since the 1960 Sun Bowl. It's been 57 years since New Mexico State has gone bowling. Only 275 miles from home, the team from Las Cruces should be well-represented in the stands. The Aggies of New Mexico State owns better stats on both sides of the ball, especially against other bowl teams. New Mexico State has dropped three straight against Utah State which brings me to this stat. Non-Conference triple revenge underdogs of 5 or less points are a sterling 12-2 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the bowls. Lets take the generous 4.5 points in the Arizona Bowl!

5*Purdue +3

High-powered offenses (Arizona) tend to struggle as favorites with a month of rest. The Boilermakers improving defense will make it tough on Tate and company. Purdue went 5-2 ATS vs. other bowl teams while Arizona went 2-5 ATS. The Wildcats are allowing 6.5 net yards per play against other bowl teams while Purdue allowed just 5.5 net yards per play. Purdue had to pull an upset at Iowa to have a shot at a bowl game. I sense this will be a motivated team seeking to give Purdue its first winning season and bowl victory since 2011. Lastly, Rich Rodriguez has coached his teams to a 2-8 ATS bowl record in his career.

5*Northern Illinois +5.5

The Huskies own the better offense and defense. Duke is coming off back-to-back underdog revenge wins against GA Tech and Wake Forrest to become bowl eligible. They are now favorites despite going 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS against other bowl teams. Not to mention, they were outgained in five of those seven games. Northern Illinois is allowing just 4.6 net yards per play while Duke is allowing 5.4 net yards per play. I like the Huskies plus the points!

5*Central Michigan +1

Central Michigan should be extremely motivated after losing last year's Bowl game by 45 points. The Chippewas are averaging 5.9 net yards per play on the road compare to 3.9 for Wyoming, which ranks 4th worst in the nation. Eight or more win bowl teams coming off a 40+ bowl loss have gone 9-3 SU of late. I have CM as 2-point chalk so lets trust my numbers and take the Chippewas.

3*LA Tech +5

5*Boise State +7.5

The Broncos have better numbers against other bowl teams than Oregon and it's really not close. I am really surprised this line is a full touchdown. Bowl favorites off a 65+ point victory are 4-12 ATS of late. The Broncos have been terrific in bowl games as medium range underdogs (4 -7 points) going 4-0 in their last four tries. Boise State went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS against other bowl teams with a net yards gained of +42. Oregon went 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS against fellow bowlers with a net yards gained of +4. Boise State is 26-14 ATS as an underdog of any kind since 1993. Take the points in the Las Vegas Bowl!

4*North Texas +7

North Texas should be extremely motivated after winning 9 games this season. Before the season started, NT was projected to win about four games. They allowed 41 points to FIU in their final regular season game and should be pumped up in this spot. North Texas played a tougher schedule than Troy, and the Mean Green went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS against fellow bowlers. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS as bowl chalk. I think this will be a one possession game so I will take the points with the Mean Green.

4*Wisconsin +7

5*Georgia +3

Auburn has played two emotional games in a span of three weeks. Teams have been a solid play against after upsetting Alabama with no rest. Georgia has a very impressive 7.2 net yards per play in their home state while the Tigers have a net yards per play of 5.4 on the road. I think the Bulldogs have the better offense and defense. I got to believe the Bulldogs will be pumped-up for this rematch of its only loss of the season. Georgia has cashed seven of their past nine tries in same season revenge games. Take the underdog in this upset maker!

5*Fresno State +7

10*Iowa State +3

The Wildcats became bowl eligible in last week's 45-40 win against Oklahoma State. It was a phony win as they were outgained by 89 yards. In fact, Kansas State has been outgained in eight consecutive games. I have to question the host's motivation in this spot. They really can't improve their bowl position. On the flip side, we have a team that fully remembers what happened last season. Iowa State lost at home to these Wildcats 31-26 despite outgaining K-State 493-398. This is a circled game on the calendar for the Cyclones. We also get 3 points with the better defense that is allowing 59 fewer yards per game and 5.4 fewer points per game. I love using net yards per play in my handicapping process because it takes turnovers out of the equation. Iowa State has a net yards per play of 6.3 on the road while Kansas State checks in at 5.5 in home games. Overall, they are right next to each other in the rankings. The Cyclones also have a solid advantage in the red zone. Look for the road team improve to 10-3 ATS this season!

5*Texas Tech +7.5

This is a big game for the Red Raiders looking to become bowl-eligible. The host has a real shot as Texas Tech ranks 10 spots higher in Net Yards per play over TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an emotional season-crushing loss against Oklahoma. That's always tough to bounce back from. TCU is 9-18 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons while Texas Tech is 8-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points of late. I have this game as a 6-point spread so lets trust my numbers and take the home underdog.

10*Utah +1.5

I think Washington State is spent having played 10 straight weeks without rest. They will get a BYE next week before facing arch rival Washington U. The Cougars played a very physical game last week against Stanford and now must play a high-altitude game. Tough. The road team is one-dimensional on offense, averaging just 85 rushing yards per game compared to 161 for the host. The Utes are 8-2 ATS when playing teams with a winning record over the past three seasons. Utah has a Net yards per play of 5.8 at home, while WA State is at 5.3 Net yards per play on the road. College Football Home underdogs (above .500) that out-rush its opponent are 52-24 ATS this decade. Take the Utes!

5*Georgia Tech +3

After Virginia Tech saw its Coastal Title hopes dashed, this spot sets up perfectly for the Yellow Jackets to catch the Hokies sleeping with the early kickoff. The host runs that option up and down the field and are intent on snapping their recent slump. This team should be pumped up trying to stay in the hunt for a Bowl game. The Jackets are ranked five spots higher in Net yards per play over the Hokies. Take the hungry host.

4*Miami FL +3

5*Southern Miss +7

The Golden Eagles are a real team with a better offense, defense, special teams, time of possession, and discipline. Southern Miss has a net yards per play of 5.8 including 6.4 on the road. They are ranked 44th overall compared to 121st (4.5 net yards per play) for the host. Tennessee is just 6-14 ATS as home chalk over the past three seasons, while Southern Miss is 9-4 ATS in Non-Conference games over the same time frame. Lastly, the Vols are the third worst team in the Nation in net yards per play at home (3.7). Southern Miss has been very good as underdogs off a loss of late. Take the road dog in what should be a very close game.

4*New Mexico State +4.5

4*Texas A&M +1.5

4*Vanderbilt +7

3*Oregon +7

4*Ball State +3

3*Iowa -120 (ML)

10*Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5

Miami is coming off two physical contests against Duke and FSU. The Hurricanes won last week despite getting outgained by 69 yards. Georgia Tech is averaging 6.4 net yards per play while Miami is averaging 6.5 net yards per play. The Yellow Jackets have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game as Miami won 35-21 at GA Tech despite getting outgained 361-355 last October. We are getting some nice value with the better defense in almost every measurable stat on the stop side. Miami is 1-3 SU in their last four tries after playing FSU. Take the generous 6.5 points with the road dog in this upset maker!

5*Arizona U +7

The Wildcats committed five turnovers in a 6-point loss against Utah two weeks ago. Arizona outgained the Utes by 107 yards. The Wildcats have two weeks to prepare for this big revenge game as they lost by 25 points last season, despite winning the stats by a 412-388 mark. Colorado is just 1-5 straight-up in their last six tries after playing UCLA. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

4*Pittsburgh U +3.5

5*Northern Illinois +11

The Aztecs have played three games where they had to come from behind to win all three. Very tough the next week and Northern Illinois is a real team that two weeks defeated Nebraska. According to my rankings, this game should really be a 9-point spread. Northern Illinois has two weeks to prepare knowing the Aztecs won last season in Northern Illinois 42-28. The Huskies run defense is much better and the stop unit is allowing just a 92.1 passer rating against. San Diego State has allowed a passer rating of 131.4. Too many points. Take the road dog!

4*Arkansas State +6

4*Appalachian State +5.5

10*Central Florida +3.5

The Knights have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game after losing 30-24 in OT at home against Maryland last season. We note that Central Florida outgained the Terrapins 455-373, despite committing 4 turnovers. I think we're getting points with the better team. I would take a slice on the money line as well!

4*California +4

4*Kentucky +7

5*Memphis +3.5

UCLA was lucky to win in week one and now will be coming off a 50+ point effort against Hawaii. The Bruins haven't played an early 12 PM Eastern Time zone game in quite some time. Memphis has the offense to score on just about anyone and based on the O/U for this game that seems likely. Teams coming off a 50+ home victory facing winning teams off a BYE have been a great play against as favorites this decade. My sources tell me that the host is taking this game very seriously. Public betting the Bruins in a big way yet the line hasn't really moved much. Vegas is very comfortable booking those bets. I'll back Memphis plus the points.

5*San Diego State +3.5

The host was outgained by 149 yards in last week's win against NMSU. Note, the Sun Devils have been outgained in 10 straight games dating back to last season. SD State has won the stats in seven of their past 10 games. The Aztecs are the more talented team in my opinion and will gladly take the three and a hook. 

5*Middle Tenn State +10.5

The Blue Raiders equaled their lowest scoring output at home since 2009, managing just 6 points against Vandy. Head Coach Rick Stockstill is 8-1 ATS in his career with Middle Tenn State following a loss of more than 20 points. The Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 11 points since 1993. Fact is, the total suggests a high-scoring game and this line should be closer to 8 points. Take the hungry road dog in this huge upset maker!

5*Appalachian State +14.5

The Bulldogs have issues on the offensive line and defensive backfield. App State has a real defense and should be able to keep this one within two touchdowns. I have the the host favored by 12 points. Good value here. Take the road dog!

4*Troy +11

4*Penn State +8

4*Iowa +3

5*Nebraska +7.5

10*Colorado Buffaloes -3

This is a more meaningful game for Colorado as they haven't won a bowl game since 2004. The Buffaloes will be making their first bowl appearance since 2007, and I know for a fact they want to win this game for reasons that go beyond football. Oklahoma State missed a chance for the Sugar Bowl by losing to Oklahoma and have gone 7-14 SU after playing the Sooners of late. The key for Colorado this season has been rushing for 100+ yards. They are 10-0 SU when running for 100 or more yards, but 0-3 when held under 100. Considering the Cowboys are allowing 205 rushing yards per game, I think that benefits the Buffs. Oklahoma State has a good passing game, but Colorado counters with the 3rd-ranked pass defense in the nation. The Buffs' defense held four foes to season-low yardage while the Cowboys are allowing 457 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. OK State allowed 500+ yards on five different occasions this season. These teams have historically been bad in their bowl game. Take Colorado!

4*Northwestern +5.5

I like unranked bowl underdogs vs. ranked teams and the Panthers fall into a great play against system over the years. Teams that scored 60 or more points in their last game are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS of late. We also get the much better defense. The Wildcats allowed just 22 points this season, while Pittsburgh allowed 36 per contest. Against other bowl teams NW is allowing 5.2 yards per play and 24.0 points per game, while Pittsburgh is allowing 6.8 yards per play and 41 points per game. I think Northwestern will be motivated to finish the season with a victory after last year's 10-win performance.

Independence Bowl

4*Vanderbilt +6

St. Petersberg Bowl

5*Miami (OH) +14.5

The RedHawks won six straight games to become bowl-eligible for this first time since 2010. Miami OH played five bowl teams this season and outgained every single foe. NC State played eight bowl teams and only managed to outgain their opponent on four occasions. The RedHawks are 18-9 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season and have gone 4-9 ATS off a win against a conference rival of late. I will trust my numbers and grab the points with the RedHawks.

5*Wyoming +10.5

These two teams were rivals before BYU leaving the MWC to become independent in 2010. Wyoming has been great as an underdog this season going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Cowboys are hugely motivated and this is way too many points for a team that defeated thirteen-ranked Boise State on Halloween weekend. This will be Wyoming's first Bowl game since 2011, when they lost to Temple in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. We note that Bowl teams with 8+ wins on the season are a sparkling 27-9 ATS as underdogs of 10 or more points of late. The Cowboys (.576) played a much tougher schedule than BYU (.469) this season. Wyoming went 4-4 ITS (in the stats) while BYU went 1-4 ITS against other bowl teams. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS with extra rest in their last five tries. I think this line is out of whack so lets take the double digits in what should be a closer game than most people think!

5*Appalachian State +1.5

The Mountaineers return to the Camellia Bowl for the second straight year. They won last year on a late FG before falling behind by three touchdowns. App State should learn from what happened in 2015. I also believe that high-powered offenses (Toledo) don't perform well with significant time off. How motivated is Toledo after losing their conference title game 55-35 to Western Michigan. The Rockets were hoping for a bigger bowl game. Defense travels well and the Mountaineers are dynamic on the stop side. They are allowing 4.9 yards per play which ranks in the top third of all the bowl teams. App State is very good running the ball and Toledo has struggled at stopping the run. Bowl favorites are just 4-16-2 ATS if they allowed 50 or more points in their conference championship game. Take App State!