The Houston rush defense was ranked 3rd in the Nation. Their offense was pretty solid for most of the season too, led by a really good college QB in Greg Ward, Jr. With 3328 yards passing, Ward threw 22 touchdowns, also leading he team in rushing with 9 TD runs to boot. The extra time off and practices should also help the smaller Ward, Jr., who was banged up at times this year. Houston averaged 38 points a game this season as well on offense. Houston is as tough as they come with their pass coverage - and their less than 56% completion rate they allow. Houston's secondary has been surprisingly better than expected, with their pass defense - which is going to cause some problems for the less than stellar passing game of San Diego State. Houston comes in off a surprising loss where they gave up 555 yards on defense.

San Diego State doesn't move the ball very well, in the air - and they have had their problems with a lack of pull blocking on their offensive side of the ball. The DLine of Houston will be able to snuff out the majority of what the Aztecs start behind the line - who can start off too slow at times. Aztecs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games I think they are the more dominant team and while the season didn't live up to expectations they lost their 5th game so it wasn't like they were undefeated headed into their final game. Now their Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando takes over for this game as their HC Tom Herman took the Texas HC position. There are 16 seniors on the game and Houston will send them off a winner.

10*

Navy has won 14 straight against Army, but the Midshipmen will be without starting QB and leading rusher Will North as well as starting slotback and team captain Toneo Gulley. Both were injured in last week's loss to Temple, as were the two back-up slotbacks who are still questionable for Saturday.
Worth and tailback Toneo Gulley were lost last week which was a huge blow to this team. Worth was nearly everything on offense as he led the team with 1,198 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground while sporting a pretty decent passer rating if you consider Navy’s rugged option style offense. In total, Worth accounted for 47% of Navy’s offense this season in some form or fashion.

Taking over the QB duties will be Zack Abey, who has rushed for 197 yards in parts of three games. He was able to muster only 10 points against Temple's outstanding defense, but is capable of leading the offense. Still, the Navy offense will suffer.  THis is a big rivalry game and I expect it to be a tight hard fought game.

Army can make plays happen behind QB Ahmad Bradshaw  and he'll make things happen.
5*

Penn State continues to be underrated. The Nittany Lions have been on fire offensively in all facets. Wisconsin plays extremely well defensively but its offense doesn’t have the firepower needed to keep pace. At some point, the Badgers' defense will be on the field longer than expected, and look for Penn State to capitalize. Penn State and Trace McSorley have surprised many this season - and Saquon Barkley is always an option for the Lions offense. His 15 rushing TDs and 5.3 YPC is more than enough to shake any team lined up looking at him in the backfield. And when Barkley has the ball, he can make plays - simple as that. Barkley has put together 7 games with 80+ YDs on the ground - including two games of 200 or more. Different story vs a team that has had a lockdown on running games all season long. PSU knows that when Barkley has the ball - he is very hard to stop with the ball is in the hands, and the Lions will try and get him touches. But it won't be enough. Penn St has won 8 straight and Wisconsin has relied on forcing turnovers the second half of the season, with a +11 margin the past four games. Penn St rarely turns the ball over and I'll take the Red Hot Nittany Lions here on Saturday night plus the points.

10*

The Washington Huskies were the talk of the town in the preseason as a dark horse candidate to win the Pac 12. Washington went on to prove their hype worthy as the Huskies stand 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference heading into a compelling matchup against the Buffaloes. The Huskies closed things out in impressive fashion getting past Washington State on the road last week by a final of 45-17. Washington’s only loss on the year came a few weeks back at home against USC by a final of 13-26. With the division on the line, Washington played with tremendous confidence and poise in their rivalry matchup against the Cougars. In the win QB Jake Browning went on to complete 21/29 passes for 292 yards and 3 TDs to 0 INTs, while the ground game added 168 yards and 3 TDs on 35 carries. Outside of their loss against USC, Washington has looked consistently dominant in Pac 12 play including a tremendous blowout win against their rival last week. Colorado has been picking up a lot of win in conference play, but there's no question they've had a tough battle getting to this spot with a number of close calls. We like this Washington squad to close the deal as they have the better QB, defense and Special Teams. Take Washington by double digits tonight!  5*

Last week, the Gators went into Baton Rouge and upset #16 LSU with the help of a defensive stand at the goal line in the waning seconds of the game. The win not only clinched the Gators into the SEC Championship Game but it also sent a clear message that they can compete with any team in the nation.
Florida really only had 1 bad game this year and that was to Arkansas.  They were winning vs Tenn most of the game and fell apart late.

However despite the struggles, injuries, and inconsistencies, the Florida Gators have remained resilient with an 8-2 SU mark on the season. A large part of that success can be accredited to the Florida defense that has yielded just 282 total yards per game which ranks 5th in the FBS.  In fact if you throw out the loss to Arkansas, you could make the case that Florida has been hottest team in the SEC and perhaps one of the hottest teams in the country during the 2nd half of the college football season.

This Florida State’s defense has not been near as strong this year compared to previous season which warrants hope that Florida can snap the 3 game losing streak to the Seminoles.  Also Florida State has some frustration with the way they have defended on special teams and its hasn't been good.
 
Gator's QB Appleby needs to take advantage of a soft Florida State pass defense and give this offense some big play potential down the field.

 
Take the better defense plus the points, even if that defense is banged up. Speaking of defense, Florida State hasn't really stopped anyone all year and we're backing the FLORIDA GATORS plus the points as our College Football GAME OF THE YEAR!

I’ve seen the Terps play live against Michigan State and came away highly impressed with their ability to run the ball and create turnovers. I've seen Rutgers play as well and they are bad.  They've lost four games this season by scores of 39-0, 49-0, 58-0, and 78-0.  As you can see once they fall behind they give up.

RU has major issues on offense, in all three facets: passing, rushing and blocking.
Rutgers has lost 8 in a row and the the coaching staff and players cannot wait for the season to be over!
 
 
The recent scheduling has not been kind to Maryland as they have dropped 4 in a row but their last 3 losses were to top 20 opponents.  Now sitting at 5-6 and with a win at home Maryland will get into a Bowl Game.  Look for them to come out hungry in their final game and the seniors to be fired up while Rutgers is just here for the ride.
Maryland wins by 28.

5*

This matchup should help the Sun Devils get their passing game rolling. They have the better offense and a win here gets them into a Bowl game. I expect the Arizona Wildcats, on the other hand, to spend most of this one in their own territory, as they have not shown the ability to overcome pressure. Back ASU to snap its five-game skid and cover and get the win here on Friday night. Play on ARIZONA St.

5*

Memphis looked good on last Friday with a dominant win over Cincinnati. The defense did its job, holding Cincy to one fourth quarter score. QB Riley Ferguson left the game after appearing to take a hit to the head and is questionable for this game. In his absence, Jason Stewart did well on 13-for-15 passing with two TD throws. They got two touchdowns on the ground by leading rusher Doroland Dorceus. Through the air, Phil Mayhue and Anthony Miller were both productive. With 38.7 points a game, this is an offense that can do damage. Memphis also had a very good defense. It was impressive how well the Memphis defense played against Cincinnati last week, holding the Bearcats to just a garbage touchdown late in the game. They are a defense that might not be all that robust on a consistent basis, but they can make things happen, as they have forced 25 turnovers this season and I'll back them at home as a nice dog this afternoon.   5*

At home, California should put the Cardinal defense to the test. And it has been highly susceptible to big plays. Back California to cover as they have a ton of speed on offense and they must win out to have a shot at a bowl game. They've also lost 3 in a row all versus ranked opponents. Stanford is known for running the ball. Hopefully to eat up the clock and as a double digit favorite, make it hard to cover that many points on the road. With a home crowd for rivalry week, and the must-win stakes at play, Cal needs to come out aggressively early. Cal just needs to limit Christian McCaffrey's yards and I like CAL to keep this game close and we'll back the home underdog here on Saturday afternoon.

10* Diamond in the Rough

This game has San Diego St moving from sunny California surf weather to the cold cold weather of Wyoming.  San Diego State has already clinched the West, and now it’s just playing for fun and its the temp is going to be in the 40's.
Wyoming is coming off an OT loss in a game where they gave up over 650 yards of offense and over 400 yards on the ground.  They also had 4 turnovers last week and played sloppy.
Their focus all week has been defense and I expect them to come out hungry here and focused on Saturday afternoon.

 Wyoming’s been amazing at home, so far this season and the strength of this Wyoming team is their offense so they will have to hope they can use that and energy of the crowd to pull of the upset. Wyoming still controls its own destiny in the race for the division title, but there is no more room for error and will play accordingly. Take the home underdog with Wyoming. 10* Game of the Month

In the beginning of the season, this looked like a primetime marquee matchup.  Now, it doesn’t have the same luster. The biggest difference in this game will be the Cardinals' secondary. This is a group that helps in run support in addition to being great vs. the pass. Louisville won’t have an issue getting off the field against the Cougars and they are going to want to win and win big to try and move up in the rankings.

Take Louisville as a 5* Play.

If you are 0-5 in conference play and the worst team in the SEC, why are you a 3.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt who is 4-5 ?  Missouri hasn’t had a problem putting up points in the last several games and Vanderbilt doesn’t have a particularly potent offense.
 
Mizzu can move the ball but struggle in the redzone.   They are at home Saturday afternoon and this is Vandys 4th road game in their last 5.
 Missouri may have a better chance in this game because Drew Lock threw for more than 300 yards last weekend and now has three straight good passing games as they build some momentum
 
The Vandy offense has been bad– averaging just 20 points per game putting them 119th in the Nation.  Mizzu put up 32 ppg.
Look for MIZZU to get the job done here at home.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK

If the Mountaineers can play great team defense like they have all season long, they’ll make Texas one-dimensional. This is only the 3rd road game of the season for W Virginia this season and they'll be fired up for this game.
 Charlie Strong is done at Texas and it seems like the Longhorns have given up. The boosters and the players are not happy.
 West Virginia still has a shot to make the college football playoff if they win out and they continue to fly under the radar despite being one of the two best teams in the conference. They are one of the few teams in the league that play defense and they also have the much better quarterback in Skyler Howard. Texas can score but their defense is terrible. This one should be close for three quarters before WVU wears the Longhorns down and pulls away.

10* Oddsmaker Mistake Play

After a 6-0 start, Baylor has lost 2 straight and last week were crushed at home by TCU 62-22. With an interim coach, a depth-shy roster that will see them playing without RB Linwood here (suspension) and a lot of off-field turmoil, this is a team that you need to fade immediately. It’s not like they’ve been good anyways this year at 2-6 ATS while playing a very soft schedule. On the other side, Oklahoma has a couple of extra days to prepare following a 34-24 win at Iowa St last Thursday. They are 6-0 in Big 12 play and welcome back RB’s Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon this week. No doubt the Sooners want revenge from an embarrassing 48-14 (+5.5) home loss to the Bears 2 years ago and they’ll get it in easy fashion over a dumpster fire Baylor team. The recipe for the Oklahoma Sooners is to try and win with Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma is getting ready for a very tough 3 game stretch and needs to win every game convincingly. BLOWOUT CITY HERE!

5*

UL Laff is only averaging 13 PPG in their last 3 games and Geo Souther is capible of putting up points quickly.

 Georgia Southern gets to go against some more gashable defensive units here over the next two weeks 2 which are at home, which should help their cause. This is a must win game for the Eagles if they're going to get to 6 wins and hopes for a Bowl game. I like Geo Southern to win this one by double digits on Thursday night.

5*

We've got great weather for tonight's game being played at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, with temperatures at 49 degrees and very little wind. Toledo has lost six straight to NIU and the road team has covered the last five meetings. That means that none of the Toledo players have ever beat perennial MAC power NIU, and this is surely Toledo's best chance. Everyone in the MAC has been picking on the Huskies, as they've won only three games to six losses. Toledo's offenses averages 553 ypg and averages a 40-22 margin score. It’s payback time for Toledo and I like them to get the job done tonight!

5*

10* GAME OF THE WEEK:

There’s big value on an Iowa squad that likely would have likely been favored in this matchup just a few weeks ago. This line is way out of wack just because Penn St is now ranked #12 in the Nation and they have a target on their back and this line is extremely inflated for unjust reasons. Iowa is tough on both sides of the ball and II believe Iowa can stop Barkley. Iowa coming in off a BYE after losing to Wisconsin with 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Iowa still has a ton to play for including a shot at the Big Ten Championship game if they win out. Iowa’s head coach Kirk Ferentz is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS the last 6 times he is off a bye in the regular season. First of all Penn State has allowed 6 of 8 opponents to run for 150 or more yards. Iowa is 26-2 since the 2013 season when they are able to run for over 150+ yards which includes a 5-0 record this season. The three-loss Hawkeyes have underachieved but their rugged style is hard to separate from, and they should perform well as a nice juicy underdog here.

Northwestern is playing some great football during its 4-game ATS cover run and their QB Clayton Thorson has been a big reason why, throwing for 10 TDs and only 2 INT's. The Wildcats gave Ohio State a scare last week with an underrated defense and have road wins at Michigan State and Iowa during their 4-0 ATS run. I dont expect to see too many TD's in this game with a lot of FG kicks. I’m taking the Wildcats and the points as I think they continue the good play that they have shown over the last month. Also, the home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.   5*

Last week’s win provided Notre Dame with a much needed boost in trying to turn their season around from utter failure to at least some redemption by attempting to get to a bowl game, something they can only do by winning three of their last four games to close out the year. Navy finds themselves in this week having to travel to Florida for the second straight week as this game is at a neutral site. The biggest question for the Midshipmen will be their pass defense. I think that’s a matchup Notre Dame can exploit in a big way. We know Navy’s offense will give the Irish problems, but can its defense get stops? Not enough, as the Fighting Irish win and cover by double digits I beleive.  5*

Auburn is coming off an SEC record for most rushing yards last week against Ark. Ole Miss opened -1 and now Auburn in -4.5 because of the 56-3 blowout of Arkansas last week.

 This Ole Miss team has a ton of talent despite their record. . Remember that Ole Miss was ahead by three TD's against Florida St and Alabama but ended up losing both late.
 With Chad Kelly, Evan Ingram and a defense featuring several legitimate NFL prospects, this team has the talent to be fighting to get into a bowl game and should come into this game hungry on Saturday night.

I'm all over the small dog with OLE MISS plus the points at home.

10* College Game of the Week

The Oline of Utah has not been playing right. They allowed 5 sacks when matched up against UCLA - and Washington. 

Utah is also banged up on both sides of the ball.

Washington can really push the ball down field, and Sophomore QB Jake Browning has been great this season -  the Heisman hopeful is never afraid to make the play when he needs to. He has big targets who he can throw to at any time.

The Wash Huskies are great in every facet of the game and they know how to take away your greatest strength, so I see them limiting the Utes' ground game. Look for Utah to hang for a half but Washington pulls away for a big win.
Cal beat Utah then went to overtime against bad Oregon team and then got their ass kicked on Thursday night by USC.  From what I saw and what some of the Wash U Insiders have been telling me, the Huskies are the real deal.
Washington wins by 20 or more.  5*

Kentucky has a running game that can make plays, bottom line. The Wildcats have made plays with their strong ground game and their very good front push. Battling the Dline of the Tigers shouldn't be a tough to handle situation.

Missouri haven't defended very well, and their Tackles have been able to get rubbed off the line. Their DBs will struggle bumping vs the Kentucky WRs all game long - which will be very physical.

The Tigers are just not good and the Wildcats are playing pretty solid football with more to play for than Mizzou. One more win in SEC play should guarantee a bowl bid for Kentucky with Austin Peay left on the schedule..

Mizzu Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games

Kentucky gets my call here on Saturday afternoon.  5*

I expect the powerful Aztecs to have their way against a Utah State club that has been erratic this season.
Last year, San Diego State blew out the Aggies as a near-touchdown underdog and I expect the Aztecs to have the upper hand again. They have held their last three opponents to 13 points combined while rolling to blowout wins. Utah State broke a three-game losing streak with a win over Fresno State last week, but Utah St is not a good team and having a tough season.
I like SD ST to win by 10 or more tonight.

5*

Toledo is an offensive high octane machine, their OL has a major advantage and so does their SPecial Teams. While Ohio U has played every game close they really haven't played anyone good outside of Tenn.

Toledo is also a cover machine going 17-5 ATS their last 22 games overall, and I Toledo gets an impressive win tonight behind QB Logan Woodside.  5*

Ohio State is coming off a tough 30-23 overtime win at Wisconsin last week in which the Buckeyes were outgained 450-411 in total yards and the players got beat up pretty good. Ohio State must now travel again and face a rested Penn State squad that is coming off their BYE week and well rested. Its raining there and going to be a sloppy cold game on Saturday night. Penn State has a solid 4-2 SU record this season with only one loss coming by more than three points. Look for a tight game and I'll take the pts with PENN ST at home.   5*

Auburn is still alive for the SEC title while Arkansas is officially out of the race. Ever since Gus Malzahn was put on the hot seat the team has stepped up on both sides of the ball. The Auburn Tigers come into the game on a three-game winning streak putting a a focus on the run game and trusting their better-than-average defense. Auburn’s defense is allowing just 16 points per game, and playing tougher than anyone in the country. Starting running back Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway have been a deadly duo with Johnson rushing for 538 yards on 105 carries with six scores and Pettway rushing 91 times for 505 yards with four touchdowns. I give major edges with Auburn here playing at home, getting 2 weeks to prepare for this game and their QB can beat you with his legs and arm. I think this game turns into a major blowout in the 2nd half.

10* BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH

Wisconsin should be drained after playing close games and losing by a total of 14 points to Michigan and Ohio St. Now Iowa has to travel again to Iowa City and play a very good Iowa team. Both defenses are exceptional but Wisconsin's QB Alex Hornibrook's inexperience will be the difference. Four of Wisconsin's six games this season have had totals that have come in at 40 points or below. Look for a defensive battle and this game decided by a FG. I'll take the home underdog with IOWA plus the points.   10*

BYU has a habit of being involved in wild, close games, as all of it contests except one this season have been decided by seven points or fewer. This isn't your usual Boise St team. The Broncos might be a bit overrated in the market as they struggled to get past mediocre Colorado State last week. The Cougars have the physicality to match the Broncos, and the touchdown spot is a strong position on this solid team who plays solid defense. Take BYU on THursday night.   5*

This is an intriguing game because you have two very good defenses facing two solid QBs and running games. But the Hokies' ground attack can be inconsistent. I like the Hurricanes to keep this one close with their tough defense and big play offense which is coming off a terrible game last week.  5*

Nebraska has yet to record a quality victory on the season. Their win against Oregon looks less and less impressive as the Ducks are in a total colapse.

Indiana has covered the spread in five straight Big 10 games.

The Hoosiers have a solid QB Richard Lagow has put up a 93-of-155 line for 1460 yards and 11 TD's. They have grown into a competitive football team and a tough out for most opponents.
The Hoosiers bring an improved defense to the table and take on a Cornhuskers team who has several injuries to their starters with their WR and TE ruled OUT for this game..
Devine Redding is Indiana's workhorse back, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Nebraska's rush defense is among the worst in the country and allowing Indiana to could chew up the clock and I like the Hoosiers to pull the UPSET here on Saturday afternoon.

10*

Texas Tech doesn't play much defense and W Virgina should be able to score at will in this game.

To win Texas Tech, which does not recognize defense as part of the game, has to get into a shoot-out and hope to score enough points to win. That is not going to happen against a very good WVU team that plays everybody tough and has the ability to control the pace of the game with solid defense and Special Teams edges here today.
I thought WVU would be a 6 or 7 pt favorite and its virtually a pickem.
Love the Mountaineers in this spot today.

10* Oddsmaker Mistake Play

After getting an extra week to prepare for the North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Tech comes in rested and looking for revenge.

This Virginia Tech team has a lot of talent and that has considerable defensive talent, North Carolina will need to achieve some offensive balance. Rushing against North Carolina is the Hokies game plan. North Carolina gave up more than 200 rushing yards last week and currently sit at No. 116 nationally in rush defense. So far this season the Hokies have rushed for nearly 200 yards per game, so look for a big dose of Virginia Tech RB Travon McMillian. Quarterback Jerod Evans, who’s gotten off to a great start throwing the football, is a major rushing threat as well. If Virginia Tech has success on the ground, its offense will be difficult to stop this afternoon and I like the Hokies to get the WIN.
10* Game of the Week

Weather could come into play here. There’s likely to be some big wind for this game due to the hurricane, and if that’s the case I want to be on the team that runs the football and also stops the run. Actually, both these teams have been reasonably effective in that area defensively. But Army and its option attack definitely would have the clear offensive advantage. Army struggled in their last game and with extra time to prepare here. I'm on ARMY plus the points here on Saturday afternoon. 5*

I like Memphis here on Thursday night. THis is a big revenge game for Memphis who was hammered 31-12 by Temple last season. Memphis opened the season with some lopsided wins over outmanned opponents, including a 35-17 win over SE Missouri, a 43-7 win over Kansas, and a rollicking 77-3 win over Bowling Green. Memphis’ Riley Ferguson threw for 343 yards against Ole Miss, but tossed three INT's and they hung with them for a while but the turnovers did them in. Memphis put up 474 yards on offense on Ole Miss and they should have their way with this Temple team. The Tigers’ defense had given up just 27 points in three games prior to allowing 48 to Ole Miss, including 624 total yards on offense. Memphis is by far the better team here.  5*

Willie Taggart is a fantastic ball coach. This team started to show improvements last year when they were really coming together as a squad and that has translated into great progress this year as they are 3-1 out of the gates. This team is much improved and plays with a lot of heart and spunk. This team struggled last week vs Florida State and we like them here consequently to bounce-back because of that. This is a team that beat Cincinnati last year by a score of 65-27 as Taggart is well aware of what Cincinnati runs and has his team well prepared well and S Florida should dominate this game from start to finish on the road after a hard and focused week of practice. With this team coming off a bad loss, with the fact that this team and this coaching staff frankly is making a statement this year and I say South Florida win in a blowout Saturday Night. This is the same team that routed Syracuse on the road and who has scored at least 35 points in each game as well. Take S FLA here on Saturday evening.  10*

The Bulldogs gave up 330 yards through the air and over 500 yards in total to Ole Miss last week in an embarrassing 45-14 loss. The loss was one of the worst in recent memory for Georgia fans and did not shed anything positive on Coach Kirby Smart in his first big game. Nows its time to bounce back against a Vols team who was slow to start the game last week with the Gators. Now Georgia team is at home with something to prove is a team few would want to face. Sony Michel is back and rumbling with 66 yards against Ole Miss, and Nick Chubb should be fine even though he hurt his ankle last week. Considering this is the true comeback game for Chubb – who suffered his knee injury against the Vols last year – it’ll be an emotional moment for team and the crowd. I think they take it to Tennessee from the opening kickoff and it’s close throughout, coming down to a last second field-goal by the Bulldogs. This has been a series that has been decided by one possession each of the past five seasons and getting the Bulldogs +4 looks very tasty to me. PLay on GEORGIA.  10* GOW.

Stanford is a more-visible team based on their recent success and the talk of Christian McCaffrey for Heisman are getting backed by the public.  Washington is perhaps the lowest-profile top-ten team in college football.

This Pac-12 showdown will likely determine the North division’s representative in the conference title game, and the winner will be favored to take the crown. I thought  Stanford got outplayed and got beat up pretty good against UCLA last weekend.

They were very conservative with their play-calling.

 I think Washington, which had 512 yards of offense against Arizona, has the more varied offense and a big edge at quarterback in Jake Browning. The Huskies have the home-field edge and the better overall club.  5*

Florida has faced UMass, Kentucky, and North Texas and is in for a rude awakening against a much more talented VOLS team. Last year, Florida won coming back from a 13-point deficit with 14 points in the final four minutes. Don't think the Volunteers have forgotten. College revenge games are huge. Florida is starting a new quarterback Austin Appleby that struggled during his stint as a starter at Purdue. It’s never a positive when you have to go into a big game with a backup quarterback, and it’s doubly bad when you have to go into a big game with a guy who couldn’t cut it at Purdue. This is the Volunteers chance to rocket into the next dimension and remain undefeated and move into the talk of winning the SEC East. The loss of Gators starting QB Luke Del Rio last Saturday is a setback that will be hard to overcome and TENN will be out for a HUGE National TV WIN by double digits behind Josh Dobbs.  10* Oddsmaker Mistake Play

Look for VT QB Jerod Evans to have a HUGE game on Saturday afternoon. We love Virginia Tech and their young coach who looks for blowouts. See how this team responded last week by blowing out Boston College and they want to win and win big against letter opponents. Combine that with the fact they played much better against Tennessee than the score shows and you have a very motivated and talented Virginia Tech team who is playing with revenge! VT is highly talented on the offensive end and with East Carolina still reeling from the near defeat of South Carolina, and VT just has so many weapons and too much speed. I see a major BLOWOUT here!  10*

Cooper Rush is a very good QB for C Mich who can do it all and they are the better team, no doubt about it, which is why they are favored on the road. They are 3-0 and face an 0-3 UVA team that is just a bad team this year. They lack the athleticism of most ACC teams. Central Michigan's coach also battled cancer recently and now after that treatment, this team has rallied behind him. This team returns a ton of talent especially on the offensive side of the ball and this team has been playing fantastic this season. With some revenge to dish out to Virginia and the fact this team is going to be looking forward to playing this game, I think C Mich gets the win and stays undefeated.  5*

Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst made a bold move by making a QB change the week of playing at one of the Big 10's most hostile environments at Michigan St here. The really big deal here is that the replacement is redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook, making his first start on the road at Michigan State, which just won at South Bend. I expected this spread to be 7 or more. On offense, Michigan State has gotten good production from Tyler O’Connor. The senior QB has completed 73% of his passes in the early going, throwing for 431 yards and five touchdowns. He spreads the ball around well with five different MSU receivers splitting those touchdown receptions and O’Connor is a tough runner that is not afraid to use his legs to pick up a key first down. LJ Scott is grinder at running back, getting stronger as the game goes on and he has found the endzone twice already. Play the Spartans.  5*

The UCLA Bruins come to Provo to take on the BYU Cougars in big week three late-game action. UCLA got on the right track last week with a routine 42-21 win over UNLV and are still looking to make up for their heartbreaking overtime loss to Texas A&M in week one. It’s a really big game for both teams. UCLA should really be 2-0. That week one loss was a bad one, as they came all the way back to tie A&M to get the game to overtime, only to see a few errors cost them the win. The UCLA defense was seen as the strength of this team, with a slew of returning starters and guys back from injuries, along with some compelling youngsters in the mix. We had BYU last week in a big revenge spot but their short screens and dip and dunking wont be enough to keep up with high powered UCLA. Just stop Tayson Hill and the Bruins will be fine. Look for UCLA to win big and QB Josh Rosen to have a monster game passing.  10* College Game of the Week

If you'd asked me to give you this number after Week 1 it would've been close to two TDs, now it's under one after Georgia sleepwalked to a 2-point win over Nicholls State and Mizzou hung 61 on Eastern Michigan. Both of those performances were outliers and Georgia is the significantly better team that will be feeling embarrassed after that showing. Mizzou's offense, despite what last week may suggest, is still not good and I like GEORGIA by double digits on the road here.   5*

Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly made headlines when he declared himself the best quarterback in the country. In Week 1 against Florida State, he threw for three first-half scores while leading the Rebels to a 22-point lead. But a series of second-half turnovers spelled doom against the Seminoles. Kelly has a chance at redemption here at home against an Alabama team the Rebels have beaten in two straight. Nick Saban was unhappy with his team's effort in a win against Western Kentucky, and I think the Tide are in for a day-long fight against a home dog that has a history of giving them one. Mississippi has the firepower to hang within 11 points here as Ole Miss should be able to stop the Bama rushing attack. I like MISSISSIPPI at home as the double digit dog.   10* Underdog Diamond in the Rough

The Cardinals have the nation's top-rated offense and they're facing a Seminoles defense that will be without preseason All-American defensive back Derwin James, who tore knee cartilage during last week's blowout of Charleston Southern. Last week Louisville just completely destroyed Syracuse inside the Carrier Dome in a 62-28 final. Quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for 5 touchdowns as the Cardinals offense posted over 600 yards of total offense. Surprisingly 4 of Jackson’s touchdowns came on the ground as he rushed for 199 yards on 21 carries. After two straight weeks of huge performances, Jackson has started catching some national attention. The Cardinals quarterback has posted Heisman Trophy type numbers in his first two games of the season with 697 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 pick through the air along with another 318 yards with 6 touchdowns on the ground. I think the X-factor will be explosive QB Lamar Jackson. I like the Cardinals here at home to get a big win.  5*

Last season in Houston, Cincinnati lost only 33-30. Houston, however, looks to be in a different class this year. Houston looks to be taking some people by surprise, but they didn’t just up and beat Oklahoma out of nowhere. This is one of four teams to face 4 ranked teams last season and beat them all. They defeated three of those opponents by double-digits, adding another double-digit win over a ranked opponent with their victory over Oklahoma in week 1. Cougars HC Herman seems to it going with this talented Houston bunch. The Houston offense has a lot of firepower, led by a versatile threat in Greg Ward, Jr. Houston is the much better team. The Cougars' starting QB and RB missed last week's 42-0 win over Lamar, but both are practicing and are fine for Thursday. Motivated Houston should win by 15 or more.  5*

Tennessee entered the season with high expectations under head coach, Butch Jones. Tennessee has a ton of talent and the SEC East is for the taking with a down South Carolina team, a Georgia team with a new coach and eventually a new QB, and a Florida team with the same question marks as Georgia for the most part. Look for the Vols offensive and defensive lines to play much better. They overlooked App St last Thursday for sure. Now you're getting QB Josh Dobbs and the Vols at a discounted rate in this game. Tennessee is the far superior team, and while I like new Hokies coach Justin Fuente, he doesn't have the horses to hang with the Vols. Jalen Hurd will have a monster game on the ground and Tennessee will get back on track in front of over 100,000 fans at home. VOLS by 21.    5*

Utah beat the Cougars in the Las Vegas Bowl last December 35-28. We had BYU in that Bowl game and it was one of our rare losers. BYU fell behind 35-0 early with 5 sloppy turnovers and then woke up and fell short by 7 pts. QB Taysom Hill leads the BYU Cougar offense. The 6’2 230-pound Hill is a senior who would like nothing more than to win the Holy War before he graduates. BYU just sneaked by the Arizona Wildcats in week one to open their season. A late field goal gave the Cougars a road win which they hope they can do again at Utah this weekend. BYU’s offense can be effective as they racked up plenty of yards throughout the game and did not turn the ball over. If the Cougars can remain consistent with their offensive schemes they will be in this game all the way to the finish. BYU looked to be clearly the better of these two teams at the line of scrimmage in that game last season and I like them to win this one outright on Saturday night!

10* COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati made a surprising move last week by starting QB Hayden Moore over the highly productive Gunner Kiel. Cincinnati was much better than its record suggested last year and they can score points in a hurry. They are the better team and after last week's lackluster showing I expect a much better effort against Big Ten team here on Saturday afternoon.  5*

Penn St did not impress me last week. They had a pick-6 and the defense did not look that good overall. Pitt is a very good team and primed for a very strong season. This team returns 8 on offense and 8 on defense and is very strong up front on both sides of the ball and that will make the difference against a Penn State team that lost a lot of key defensive lineman to the NFL last year. Pitt has its way more or less running the ball and should pull away in the 2nd half and win this one by 10 or more.   10* Oddsmaker Mistake Play

For a team whose quarterback has yet to take a snap in a live game, expectations are sky-high for the Seminoles. FSU will start QB redshirt freshman Deondre Francois.  This cast is highlighted by all-purpose back Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns despite missing some time because of injuries. However the Miss defense is very good and will stop the run and pressure the freshman QB.

 The Rebels are coming off a 10-win season that saw them upset Alabama for the second straight year. They have a stud at quarterback, with Chad Kelly who led the SEC in passing last season, and he threw a conference best 31 TD passes and passed for over 4000 yards.

MISS Head Coach Hugh Freeze’s teams tend to thrive in an underdog role, and I expect them to perform well in a game where their opponent is receiving the majority of the headlines here on Monday night. 5*

Notre Dame has beaten Texas five straight times, including 38-3 in South Bend last season. This is a major revenge play for TEXAS here at home on Sunday night.

Texas should be a better team than the one that got blasted by the Irish in last year's season opener in South Bend, Ind. But the Longhorns are throwing a freshman quarterback into the fire against a very aggressive defense that will give him lots of different looks and ltry to capitalize on his inexperience. With plenty of time to prepare for this game I like Texas and their speed to get the win and cover. 5*

NC's defensive coordinator made a huge difference last year for the Tarheels. Their defense improved by 14.5 PPG. Heels QB Mitch Trubisky was a 4* recruit and he is more than capable of running a spread attack and he had 2 years of experience backing up Marquise Williams. NC still has RB Elijah Wood who is very good. Larry Fedora is a very good coach and NC has 13 returning starters back from last years team. North Carolina is an underrated program and this shapes up as a nice value pick. I like UNC to win outright here on Saturday evening and I love getting 3.5 points as the underdog. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA as our 10* GAME OF THE WEEK.

Trace McSorley is proficient enough to throw the deep ball with touch and more than tolerable precision. McSorley doesn't have a lot of experience behind him, but once he gets over the opening jitters - he will end up with good enough poise from pocket, and looking down the barrel of the D-line of Kent State isn’t going to shake him. If Kent State doesn't connect on the long passes they will not be in this game - bottom line. And with Malik Golden surveying the field from the safety position it is going to be a challenge. Missing tackles can be another big problem for Kent State - Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC. Penn State wins this one big by 30 or more.  5*

Morgantown is a brutal road trip first of all, and Mizzou has some issues at QB for sure this season. West Virgina is always tough at home. Mizzou has a new head coach, a scheme and all new coaches without Gary Pinkel around. Add in the fact they were a bottom feeder with little offense in the SEC last year, and this is West Virginia’s year to make or break Dana Holgorsen and they have a ton of weapons to do so. Junior college transfer, Natereace Strong, has various speeds as a runner and can call on second gear when he sees daylight. Other than their hopes for him - their running game is going to struggle. Problem is, the defense of West Virginia doesn't work well with allowing big chunk plays like he likes to put together. Skyler Howard has a great vibe offensively for West Virginia, after last year's high scoring season. He has the ability to move the ball - and will. J'Mon Moore is not going to get a ton of targets for MIzzou - Moore is normally a pretty dangerous guy, but this matchup is a nightmarish one for the lengthy WR. West Virginia will not let off the throttle in this one, they never do. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games West Virginia wins by double digits here early action Saturday.  5*

I like Temple at home here on Friday night. We are going against a team who was 2-10 last year and might even be worse this season. Temple is a very good team and Army failed to cover its final six games playing well below their rating and then playing Navy tough in their big rivalry game to end their season. Temple comes off a fantastic 10-4 season and the key members of the offense all return -- 18 starters overall. Look for Temple to win by 24 points or more. 5*

 I like the home underdog in this matchup on Thursday night. Last year in Bloomington the Hoosiers beat FIU 36 -22 , but what a difference a year makes as it always does. The Hoosiers lost two huge pieces of their offense with Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard going to the NFL. The Hoosiers return only 6 starters to their offense and they will have competition at the QB position which will cause difficulty for the team early in the year. Indiana will rely heavily on their running game with Devine Redding who ran for just over 1,000 yds last yr being their main RB. The defensive returns 7 starters to what was a very porous unit last year ranking 120th. Florida INT returns 9 starters to their offense, led by 3rd year QB Alex McGough. McGough threw for 283 yards in Indiana last year and we see more success at home for McGough against the Hoosiers in this years game. They also have a new defensive coordinator so it will be tough for Indiana to prepare for as they dont know what to expect. I think this line is too high and I like Flor-INT with the double digits points here at home.

5*

I look for the Alabama SEC offense to have success in this one against an ACC defense that will get bowled over as Alabamas power with their running game early and, in turn, that forces the Tigers defense to crowd the line which will lead to some big opportunities for the Alabama aerial attack. The Crimson Tide scored 38 points against a good Spartans team and Alabama has averaged 38 points in their last four games overall. Bama's offense has produced over 400 yards in each of those four games.

The Clemson Tigers gave up at least 27 points in 4 of their last 6 regular season games. Alabama continues to get better each game and I feel they are out to prove a point in the NCAA Championship Game on Monday night! Look for another one Monday night. ROLL TIDE! Thanks for all your College Football business this season as we are coming off our best College Football Season in our 22 years in business winning 67% of our picks and a remarkable 82% on our top 10*'s. The bowls were even better and overall I hope you collected plenty of cash.
10*

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL

It was a solid season for Arkansas under 3rd year HC Bielema.  He did break from his mold of power football by hiring former Central Michigan HC Dan Enos as his OC.  With the talents of QB Allen, Arkansas balanced their offense with an attack that averaged 264/9.1 through the airways.   Kansas St is not that good.  They rallied at home behind their veteran HC to get a 6th WIN in their final game to become Bowl eligible.

Arkansas has a ton of speed and have won 5 of their last 6 games, with a high powered offense. Different opponent, same results, matched up vs a team with zero defense.

Kansas State has not put up 300YDs of passing offense all season. Kansas State QBs have really had a problem finding the spots they need to get the ball to.

Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.

Arkansas wins as we get yet another BLOWOUT here in the Bowl games.  10*

Stanford’s offense is led by Kevin Hogan, the senior quarterback who has shown immeasurable grit and passion this season. His willpower and motivation have been keys to the team’s success this season. He had 24 TD throws and 7 picks on the season, while completing nearly 70% of his throws. Christian McCaffrey is one of the top players in the nation, after setting the single-season record for all-purpose yardage. He is the team’s leading rusher and receiver, with 1847 yards on the ground and 540 in the air and will be the biggest weapon on the field on January 1. Right now, nobody is playing more confident football than this QB. He is doing anything it takes to put points on the board. He has to feel there's no secondary that can stop him, when he decides to get the job done, and I don't blame him. There is just nothing that C.J. Beathard can do consistently enough right now. Any kind of throw, whether for the big 1st down, or the deep 3rd downs. He has been too up and down, and in this very big game, for Iowa, being in their 1st Rose Bowl game in 25 years. The Stanford offense has more options that Iowa. Look for Stanford to really wear this Hawkeyes team down. Should the Cardinal get out to an early lead, they can really take the Hawkeyes focus out of this game.  5*

With the long layoff I expect Florida to spend a lot of time working on their offense. Their defense is tough as nails and I like Florida in this underdog spot on Friday. The Gators defense could win this game by themselves and I see the Gators defense causing major problems for Michigan. If Michigan can't move the ball then I see turnovers being the factor on who wins this game and with the Gators defense I see them forcing some turnovers in the game. Treon Harris the Florida QB is a duel threat and his shiftiness will need to be accounted for by Michigan both on the planned keep and the scramble to throw. Kelvin Taylor has been a bit of a plodder while averaging just 4.0 yards per carry but he does have 13 rushing scores to lead Florida so look for him to get his chances if the Gators get the ball in close. Florida is 5-1 ATS when playing on two weeks or more to prep and I'll back them here as a dog.  5*

OUTBACK BOWL This Tenn team is very young and these extra practices and time will really help them. NW had a fairly easy schedule and their offense is terrible. Tennessee is still being considered the team on the rise in the SEC. Both of these teams play a very physical style of football. Northwestern is still seeing most of the action getting 68% of the publics money for some reason I do not see maybe because NW is ranked higher. Tennessee may be 8-4 on the season, but if you are not an SEC fan and do not follow the conference, little do you know how close this team was to winning the SEC East. Tennessee not only lost a handful of close SEC games, but they blew a two touchdown lead over Oklahoma only to lose in double overtime 31-24. Along with the Oklahoma loss, they also blew a 13 point lead to the Florida Gators with under five minutes left in regulation. The Tennessee Vols offense is built around dual threat QB, Josh Dobbs and running back, Jalen Hurd. Dobbs passed for over 2,100 yards and 15 scores in 2015 while Jalen Hurd rushed for over 1,100 yards and eleven touchdowns. The Tennessee defense has also played well ever since Butch Jones took over as head coach. This is a very tough team that is much better than their record indicates and I like them to WIN BIG on Friday afternoon.  10* College Bowl Game of the Year

College football’s opening semi-final playoff match will take place this afternoon inside Sun Life Stadium with the # 1 ranked Clemson Tigers square off with the # 4 Oklahoma Sooners in the Orange Bowl. The top ranked Tigers were the only team in college football that posted a perfect 13-0 record this year marking their only undefeated campaign since their 1981 National Championship run. Clemson is now just one victory away from competing for another National Championship.

The Tigers have been a dynamic force on the offensive side of the football as well averaging 512 total yards per game and just a tad shy of 40 points per game. Both marks rank inside the top 15 teams in the country. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is a very good dual threat quarterbacks who finished with a 69% completion percentage that resulted in 3,512 yards with 30 touchdowns and 11 picks. Watson also added 887 rushing yards with another 11 touchdowns on the ground as well.  I expect to see a lot of points and I'll take CLEMSON plus the 4 pts here on Thursday afternoon.  5*

I don't think this is a good matchup for the Seminoles. One team is super motivated for this game and its Houston’s chance to knock off one of the most prestigious teams in the country.

Additionally, this matchup favor the Cougars in several ways I believe. Houston’s defense is really good against the run ranking 11th in the FBS yielding just 116 yards per game. If the Cougars can remain strong against the run, things could get really interesting if Florida State is forced into passing situations to move the football.

FSU will have QB Sean Maguire behind center as QB Everett Golson didn't make the trip and I give Houston QB Ward Jr the edge Thursday afternoon. Florida St struggled on the road in their last 3 road games dropping 2 of them and I see the Cougars putting pressure on the FSU defense all game long.
More importantly Houston has a ton of offensive weapons that will make things tough on Florida State’s defense. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr is one of the more exciting players in college football. Ward threw for 2,590 yards with 16 scores and 5 picks on the season. He was even more dangerous on the ground rushing for 1,041 yards with 19 touchdowns. Running back Kenneth Farrow is closing in on the 1,000 yard plateau as well and has already posted 12 touchdowns. Meanwhile wide receiver Demarcus Ayers has caught 89 passes for 1,140 yards with 6 touchdowns on the season. I'll gladly take HOUSTON plus the generous pts here. 10*

I'm taking the points with Wisconsin on Wednesday night. The Badgers finished 9-3 SU, with three losses coming against Alabama, Iowa, and Northwestern. The Tide are in the running for a possible national title, the Hawkeyes missed a spot in the CFB playoffs by one game, and the Wildcats are a sturdy 10-2 and playing in a New Year's Day bowl game. The three teams own a combined record of 34-4 SU. The Badger defense is nasty, stingy, and fierce, and I expect the unit to cause problems for the USC offense. They have the best statistical overall defenses in the land. UW is a top-10 unit in almost any metric you want to name but they are most importantly 3rd in total yards allowed and lead the NCAA by surrendering just 13.1 points per game. On the flip side the USC defense has been a mess most of the season, ranked 96th against the pass, while also allowing over 400 total yards per game. They were scorched for 41 points or more on four occasions this season. USC allowed nearly 5 yards per carry over their last three games and saw their last six opponents complete 123 of 175, a whopping 70.3% of their passes, with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs. I like WISKY plus the points.  10* Diamond in the Rough

Texas A&M is becoming a dumpster fire. Quarterbacks are leaving, players are not happy, the program is putting restrictions on the kids who want to transfer…it just isn’t pretty right now in College Station.

Louisville, like Texas A&M, had much bigger dreams heading into 2015. They dropped their opener in the Georgia Dome to Auburn by a score of 31-24. At that time many people thought that was actually a good performance seeing as how Auburn was the preseason #6 team in the nation. Louisville played a very tough schedule.
 The key to this game for Louisville is to get the offense rolling quickly. With all the mess surrounding A&M right now, if Louisville can get out to an early 14-0 or 17-0 lead, the Aggies may just pack it in

 I think Louisville has more talent and should have no problem covering the 3.5 pts here tonight.  5*

The Nevada Wolf Pack offense owns a top-30 running game and is one of two teams with two 1,000-yard rushers. Meanwhile, the Colorado St Rams have been horrible against the run, allowing an average of 208 yards rushing per game, which ranks 108th in the nation. Nevada is on a 6-1 SU run when they rush for at least 200 yards in a game. I see Nevada controlling stretches of the game with their run-game and playing the better defense and getting the outright win. Colorado State's offense has shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with a high turnover rate which is one of the worst in the nation, and Nevada has a hungry secondary, ready to take full advantage. 10*

Minnesota slogged through an emotional roller coaster of a season that watched them lose head coach Jerry Kill to retirement due to epilepsy off the field, and now have a chance to play in this Bowl game. The Golden Gophers are one of those teams that reached the postseason with a losing 5-7 mark, and while they finished the year with five losses in their last six games, we still believe they are the better overall team. That 1-5 losing streak to end the year had everything to do with their tough schedule, falling against Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin - all teams that are playing in other bowl games. What we like about Minnesota is how they played in those losses, losing by three points vs. Michigan, by five points vs. Iowa, and even playing TCU tough in a six-point loss to start the season. Central Michigan played well against the lesser teams in the MAC Conference, but they are not at the level to hang with a quality Power 5 Conference team. Gophers pull away in the second half and win by double digits on Monday evening.   5*

In this Bowl we have a ranked team versus an unranked team.
 64% of the documented action shows that the public is leaning heavily on Navy to get the cover over Pitt.
With 4 weeks to prepare I like Pitt's chances to get their defense ready for the triple option.
 
The Pitt Panthers come into this game with an 8-4 record which obviously is not as impressive as Navy’s 10-2, but the schedule played by Pitt was much tougher than Navy’s. Pitt faced off against teams like Iowa, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, UNC, and Duke. Also the Pitt Panthers beat Georgia Tech  31-28 who runs the exact same style of offense as Navy.

The heart and soul of the Pitt offense is the combination of quarterback, Nathan Peterman and running back, Quadree Ollison. Peterman passed for over 2,100 yards in 2015 and had 19 touchdown passes and just five interceptions.

As long as Pittsburgh doesn't turn the ball over or pick up some dumb penalties they should get the job done this afternoon.  5*

UCLA finished 8-4 with much higher hopes than playing in this Bowl game which is in their backyard. Most teams get excited to travel to a new area in a Bowl game. Nebraska is excited to be here since they finished with only 5 wins this season. They are a young team who gets an extra month of practices. Coach Riley is a good coach who has his team excited and their fans travel well. Nebraska has taken their share of knocks this season as they transition into the Riley era. But through all the struggles and strife, they managed to remain a dangerous opponent in a lot of tough spots, being competitive against the better teams they faced this season, while holding a win over a team that is now in the CFP. UCLA isn’t the best candidate to cover a big number against a decent defensive front like Nebraska, who ended the season with a little better momentum. I’ll take the points here tonight.  5*

For all of Indiana's greatness on offense, it ranked among the very worst in College Football on defense. Their offense is nowhere near powerful enough to withstand a defense that gives up an average of 37.1 points and over 500 yards of total offense per game. They were ranked dead-last out of 128 times in passing-defense, with some quarterbacks literally exploding against this secondary. It was a bad sign when in their first game; they gave up 47 points against FCS opponent Southern Illinois in a one-point win. Duke lost to some of the better teams in the ACC, though falling to Virginia and narrowly beating Wake to end the season This will be the fourth straight season Duke has played in a bowl game. With time to prepare Duke is the better overall team and their defense will step up and get the win at Yankee stadium on Saturday afternoon.  10* BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Washington Huskies take on Southern Miss in the first ever meeting between the two schools. Chris Petersen, Head Coach of UW, has a reputation for putting together winning teams and he’s begun to do this in Seattle at the U of W. Petersen’s Huskies finished 6-6 this season but their record really doesn’t do them justice as they have poured it on towards the latter part of the regular season. In the Husky’s last two games of the regular season they scored a combined 97 points and only allowed a total of 17 points. With the extra practice time Washington should come out strong here Saturday afternoon. Southern Miss has a good record but they played a weak schedule and conference. Now they face the best defense in the Pac-12 and will be a serious step-up in level of competition for Southern Miss. Washington is on an 8-1 ATS run as a favorite of 4-10 points, outscoring those nine opponents by 22 ppg. Take the Washington Huskies here.  5*

Not having Gunner Kiel will equal trouble in this game on Christmas Eve.  He is their leader and just 6 days ago he took a personal leave so CIncy didn't have much time to prepare with their backup QB.

San Diego State can run the heck out of the ball and they play tremendous defense. It’s not an altogether-complicated recipe for success, but a dependable one. And they have a little built-in advantage with being familiar with the stomping grounds they enter in this game, having played Hawaii on the road this season in this very venue, winning 28-14 on October 10.

And it’s a lot shorter of a road trip for SDSU than it is for Cincinnati.

 
San Diego State relies on a robust run-game on offense. They have a fantastic back in Donnel Pumphrey, who has 1554 yards on the ground, while being second on the team in receiving yards. He had 19 touchdowns this season.

 
The Aztecs’ defense is a flourishing unit that is the 5th ranked “D” in the country. They feature excellent balance and playmaking ability, ranked 13th against the pass and 5th against the run, while giving up an average of just over 17 points per game. With time to prepare the better defense usually wins in these Bowl games and I like SD ST with the Bearcats being without their star QB.
 5*

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL Boise State measured against its own expectations may have been a letdown in some respects, but they still won 8 games and look to cap off the season with a nice bowl win. The Boise offense looks to have a good future in the hands of QB Brett Rypien. Though he came on in late-September after an injury to the original starter, he threw for almost 3000 yards on the season. The youngster leans heavily on running back Jeremy McNichols, who was one of the more-productive backs in the MWC this season with 18 touchdowns on 1244 yards running, along with 46 receptions. WR Thomas Sperbeck figures to be a handful in this game, as will be Chaz Anderson and Shane Williams-Rhodes. This is an offense that averages nearly 38 points per game. Boise is by far the better team in my eyes and should win handily by double digits. 5*

Terry Bowden's team is cresting right now, as they come to Boise having won and covered 4 straight! The Zips also punched the ticket in 7 of their final 9 games against the spread this season.Akron defense has been tough and I think that their defense will keep them in this game The same cannot be said for Utah State, as injuries really stymied the Aggies season this year, and Matt Wells' team struggled down the stretch with losses in 3 of their final 4 games, and spread losses in all 4 of those games! True, Utah State is playing in their 5th straight bowl game (3 straight wins and covers), and playing in this very bowl game for the third time in those 5 years, but that could very well translate into a "been there, done that" attitude and usually teams returning to the same bowl game as the previous year have struggled and lack motivation. Play the Akron Zips as the live dog.  5*

I like the way USF has been playing as of late beating teams like Cincinnati and Temple. The South Florida offense has been rolling scoring 153 points in their last 3 games and I see USF not only scoring in this game but their defense controls the Hilltoppers offense.

The WKU defense isn’t foolproof, but that’s par for the course in the C-USA, an offense-happy conference. They’ve given up some massive yardage in spots, and I’ll take South Florida PLUS the points.
 5*

Brigham Young overcame a lot this season. Taysom Hill was lost for the season, forcing Tanner Mangum into the starting role, where he’s been a nice surprise. He has thrown 21 touchdowns and 7 picks with over 3000 yards, Mangum leads this offense and has been a real gamer, fighting with a lot of grit for his team. Mangum works with a nice cast of receivers who provide matchup concerns with almost every defense they face, led by excellent Mitch Mathews, Devon Blackmon, Nick Kurtz, Terenn Houk, and Mitchell Juergens. Houk is 6’5,” while Mathews and Kurtz are 6’6.” They are very tough because of their size and strength. The run game is now led by Algernon Brown,and they average 34.2 points per game. The BYU defense is pretty good too as they are a balanced group that gives up an average of just 21.8 points per game and forces turnovers. Bronson Kaufasi is a difference-maker with 11 sacks, as he applies a ton of pressure.

Utah will have to fend off a potential letdown spot here in this game. This is far from what they were envisioning. And their offense just couldn’t hold up. They will be without Devontae Booker, who had 1261 yards on the ground through 10 games before going down for the season. And the pass-game is stripped dry with injuries to Kenneth Scott (questionable) and Britain Covey (doubtful). I like BYU to send off their coach a BIG WINNER as he's been great for the BYU program and school. PLAY BYU!
  10*

Offensively, the Spartans still rely heavily on their ground game which is averaging 159 yards per game and their defense is tough as usual. Iowa was outgained by 200 yards last week and got dominated at Nebraska but 4 turnovers and a pick-6 helped them get the win.

I look for Spartans QB Connor Cook will shine Saturday night. Iowa didn't have to face Ohio St or Michigan this year while Michigan St had to face both of them (won both) and beat Oregon earlier in the season.
Michigan St is much better than Nebraska and  I think the Spartans take care of business and win this game convincingly to capture the BIG TEN Championship.  5*

We are 11-3 on our College Football 10*'s this season and haven't dropped back-to-back 10*'s all year.
We caught a lot of bad breaks with Nebraska last week with 4 turnovers as they dominated the game with 200 more total yards, twice as many 1st downs and on time of possession.
Lets come back strong this week with a 10* on CLEMSON here on Saturday night.

Championship weekend will conclude this Saturday night with a heavily anticipated matchup between the#1  Clemson Tigers and the 8th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in a battle for the ACC Championship. Clemson held off a tough challenge from rival South Carolina last week in a 37-32 but the game wasn't as close as the final score. Clemson was up big early but 3 turnovers allowed SC to get back in it.  Clemson had over 500 total yards in the game.

Victory to seal their first perfect season since their 1981 National Championship campaign. Clemson will have the chance to join the 4 team playoff and compete for another National Championship if they can take care of the Tar Heels this Saturday night in Charlotte.

Clemson gave up 181 on the ground vs South Carolina and I expect their defense to bounce back big here on Saturday night.  Every game after their defense allowed 24 or more points in their previous game this Clemson defense came back strong and only allowed an average of 14 points in their next game.  From what I read their practices were intense this week and I look for Clemson to win by double digits here on Saturday night!

Three years ago, current Temple head coach Rhule took over a 4-win Temple team. In the 3 years at the helm, Rhule has built the program from 2 to 6 to 10 wins this year, including a 9-3 ATS pointspread run and 7-1 SU conference record. Temple is a very good team with a tough defense that shut-down explosive Memphis for a 31-12 victory, then last week concluded their conference slate with a 27-3 blowout of UConn, in which they outrushed the Huskies 161-9 and held UConn to 138 total yards. Houston is coming off a HUGE win over Navy last week and I look for Temple to keep it close here. The difference here will be the defense as Temple is tough and Houston struggles. They allowed 30 or more points, 4 times, to Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis and Navy (with the latter 3 of those in the last month). I'm back Temple plus the points here in the early kickoff on Saturday at Noon EST.  5*

Tough overtime loss by VT last week at home against North Carolina as we had them with the cover, and retiring 29 year head coach Frank Beamer does need the win here to make it back to a bowl game and extend Beamer's career. I will look for that motivation to be enough to carry the Hokies to the road win against a Virginia team they always seem to beat. Tech has dumped UVa 11 straight times straight up, and they are 8-3 against the spread in those 11 series meetings. That includes a 4-1 spread mark at Scott Stadium the last 5 series meetings. Virginia probably even wants to see Frank Beamer make it to one last bowl game before his retirement and their tough defense should be enough to cover the 3 pt spread here this afternoon.! Play the Hokies to make it a 12 straight series wins, and a 9-3 cover mark in those 12 wins.  5*

In key Big Ten action, the unbeaten Iowa Hawkeyes come into Lincoln to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday afternoon. Nebraska is team that already beat an unbeaten team this season, spoiling the plans for Michigan State a few weeks ago. At 5-6, this is Nebraska’s last chance to become bowl eligible, and they could very easily be 11-0 as they had the lead in all 6 losses late and 5 of their losses in came the final seconds. Nebraska is rested, having played two Saturdays ago in a 31-14 win at Rutgers. It was their second win in a row, as they try to salvage a 3-6 start to the season. Iowa won their 11th in a row to start the season on Saturday, a 40-20 home win over Purdue. Tommy Armstrong, Jr. Has given it his best effort in the new Mike Riley Cornhuskers offense, as he has 21 TD throws and 12 picks on 2560 yards passing. He has 5 picks in the last two games, a pattern that would really hurt in this game against the opportunistic Hawkeyes. Armstrong, Jr. Is also useful with his feet, having run in 6 touchdown scores. The run game is in the hands of talented backs like Terrell Newby and Imani Cross. The ‘Huskers have a nice 1-2 punch at receiver with Jordan Westerkamp and Brandon Reilly. They put up an average of 33.6 points a game—a respectable figure in what is really a transitional season for Nebraska.

The Nebraska defense has been pretty good against the run, but that might be a result of teams having so much success with what is really a backwards secondary. They give up an average of over 300 yards per game and this area of the team is a big reason why Nebraska will be at home during bowl season if they don’t score the win this week. They have shown some fight in the last two games, holding off Michigan State, before allowing only 14 to Rutgers. Lincoln is a very tough place to play especially late in the season and the Cornhuskers will be pumped here.

An 11-0 team versus a 5-6 Nebraska team and Iowa is only a 2.5 pt favorite. The Oddsmakers are begging you to take Iowa but we aren't biting and we'll take the under-rated Cornhuskers here on Friday afternoon as our 10* COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR$$.

Tennessee visits Missouri for this 7:15pm ET kick, as televised by ESPN2. Last Saturday, Tennessee recorded their 6th win of the season to qualify for a Bowl Game in successive seasons (had not played in a Bowl the 3 previous years before that). Tenn scores 34 ppg and averages over 400 total yards each game. They are playing a very bad Mizzu team who only puts up 15ppg. I expect Joshua Dobbs to have a monster game here on Saturday night. Tennessee has to score TD's here because their kicking game is not good. Moving the ball into the end zone is crucial to their success. Under 3rd year HC Jones, the rejuvenation of the Vols’ program continues. This year, the offense has improved from 29 to 34 points and the defense from 24 to 21 points. It is the 3rd consecutive year for scoring improvement under Jones. The Vols now gain a balanced 210 yards, both running and passing, with a defense that allows just 21/381. They are clearly deserving of their Bowl invite. Losses have come only against quality teams Alabama by 5, Arkansas by 4, Florida by 1 and Oklahoma by 7. TENN VOLS have played a very tough schedule and have a balanced attack and should put the Mizzu Tigers away here by double digits.  10* GAME OF THE WEEK!

The Penn State Nittany Lions have fared quite well in recent meetings with the Michigan Wolverines, posting a record of 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five meetings. Included in there are three-straight wins at home in Beaver Stadium, the most recent of which was a 43-40 win as 2-point home dogs in 2013. Penn St is coming off their much needed BYE and ready for a HUGE home game on Saturday. The brilliant early season Michigan defensive run is a thing of the past. Following their October 10th (38-0) shutout of Northwestern, Michigan have allowed more potent Big 10 offenses to score 110 points for an average of almost 28 PPG. Last week, that defensive decline culminated when Michigan allowed 527 yards to Indiana including the Hoosiers winning the overland battle 307-141. Michigan was fortunate to emerge with a victory in OT. Penn St. has had 2 weeks to prepare for this revenge game and I expect them to be very hungry and I look for a low scoring grind it out game with Penn St plus the points at home getting us the cash.  5*

You cant just look at the 1-7 currentl record SMU has. They will be pumped up for this game as they get to play a top 25 team. SMU is a much better team than their record shows. This team nearly beat Temple on National TV and though they did lose by 20 points, the game was nearly tied in the 4th Q. The SMU team scored 40 points on Temple who has a very good defense. This is a squad that only lost by 19 points to TCU 37-56 as 37 point underdogs. This team also covered against Baylor and Houston. THey have played some very stiff competition so I expect a tight game on Saturday. 5*

Alabama Left tackle, Rufus Warren, who injured his left leg in the last game, could have some lingering problems this week.  Alabama is great at stopping the run but Miss St will spread them out and beat them by passing. Look for  QB Dak Prescott to have a good game.
He is a QB who can beat you with his legs or with his arm.  You will see that is exactly the kind of QB that Alabama has struggled with in the past.  You will also hear that Miss St. is on a roll with 4-consecutive victories to up their record to 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, including 4-1 ATS in SEC play. 
Lets take the home underdog here with Miss St. 5*

Southern Mississippi is coming off a bye, which allowed for an extended celebration of its first season of bowl qualification since 2011. They are well rested for this game and playing with revenge from last years loss to Rice by 18 prs. Southern Miss has been HOT winning 3-straight games by double-digits and their defense continues to get better and lately outstanding in those 3 wins holding opponents to 11ppg. Rice has dropped 2-in a row at home and they are not that good.

The favorite in this series is 4-0 ATS and again Southern Miss should win this game by double-digits. S Miss QB Nick Mullens who has 25 tds and is averaging over 320 yards a game and a solid two-man run attack of senior Jalen Richard and sophomore Ito Smith, they're not only going to be bowling but also have a shot at the West Division title. Rice has lost 2 in a row. At 9.6 yards per attempt, only two other teams in FBS are worse against the pass than Rice. I am expecting a BLOWOUT here Saturday afternoon. 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH!

This Thursday’s matchup is intriguing with VT Head Coach announcing his retirement but I expect him to go out strong these last 3 games and especially with 2 weeks to prepare for this one. Both offenses focus heavily towards running the football. The Yellow Jackets run the triple option while Virginia Tech uses a more traditional style set. The Hokies freshman running back Travon McMillian will likely be the most exciting player to watch. McMillian is a tough runner that has a lot of upside to go along with his youth.

Georgia Tech has absolutely zero confidence or ability to throw the football so when they get into 3rd and long plays they are screwed. QB Michael Brewer has provided the Hokies offense with a spark since taking over for Brendan Motley. Brewer has thrown 4 scores compared to just 1 picks in the last two games and he looked great against a tough Boston College defense. Frank Beamer is 24-9-1 ATS in his career when playing with revenge, including 10-0 ATS from Game 10 out in the season. Rambling The Host in this series is 1-8 ATS, including 0-5 ATS the last five. Take VTECH here on Thursday night.  5*

These LSU vs. Alabama games have been great matchups over the last several years. Alabama has had the upper hand winning the last 4 but they have all been tough hard fought games by both teams. This Alabama defense is for real and I cant see LSU scoring more than 15 points here. The Tigers will struggle to rush the ball as Alabama will stuff the run.

Interestingly Alabama’s offense is designed with a heavy focus on the run. The Crimson Tide have an outstanding running back in Derrick Henry who has already eclipsed the 1,000 yard barrier and has 14 touchdowns on the season. Since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, he has put an enormous amount of effort towards recruiting excellent offensive lineman and talented running backs to build his offenses. Alabama still has that same pedigree of offensive talent that yields one of the best rushing offenses in the country.

I think Alabama has a major advantage in terms of flexibility on offense. Quarterback Jake Coker has developed into a good passing quarterback this season and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has opened the playbook up quite a bit since the start of the season. If these game goes back and forth in favor of the defenses, I like Alabama’s ability to draw up isolation passing situations and simply call shots down the field. A few big plays could easily decide the outcome of this game and Alabama appears to be the team most suitable to pull off the big plays with their ability to throw the football down the field. This is a major mismatch and I look for Alabama to win by double digits. ROLL TIDE! 10* COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK

High scoring Oklahoma State is very real. And Emmanuel Ogbah is as real as real can be especially while playing opposite of lengthy Jimmy Bean, they terrorize teams. And the Olines will have their hands full dealing with these two, all day long. But this will be, by far their toughest game of the season thus far. I never saw this coming with Oklahoma State being unbeaten so late in the 2015 season. Oklahoma State is not far behind TCU in the scoring category. The Cowboys themselves are averaging 44 points a game and giving up 24. They also are passing for over 350 a contest too. These two teams are very similar, but this is not a very good Gary Patterson defensive unit and on the road, it will show. and I like the Home Underdog on Saturday afternoon +5.5

 Bowling Green is currently riding a three-game win streak over Ohio, including last year’s, 31-13 victory in Athens.
Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Ohio, and also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings at home in Bowling Green against the Bobcats.
This Bowling Green team is the quietest 6-win team in the country, and I have a feeling they have a little bit of a coming out party in front of the country on ESPN2 this week.

Ohio U has scored more than 24 points just once against a FBS opponent all season long, and based on their 24 and 35 points margins of defeat in their last two games, this has all the makings for another lopsided final score.
Bowling Green has shown no mercy the last few weeks, racking up 62, 50, and 48 points in blowout wins and ATS covers - the last game being a 48-0 shutout against Kent State on the road. Falcons has passed for over 400 yards in all but one of their games this season, and if anything their offensive is improving every time out. Look for another blowout win with BG tonight on National TV. 5*

No.15 Michigan is playing their 1st game over their heartbreaking loss to Michigan State on the final play and its still on their mind. Minnesota won this game last year and I like them getting double digits at home here on Saturday night. Heavy hearted Minnesota Gophers team hosts the Michigan Wolverines Saturday night and I see this game being much closer then the oddsmakers posted playing for their coach who resigned this week due to medical problems. I believe every Minnesota football player will be playing to win this game for their former head coach Jerry Kill with heavy heartsteam and the success of the ground game I see Minnesota hanging around and covering this double-digit number.  5*

I don’t think there’s any doubt we are seeing an inflated line here with Clemson coming off that 58-0 win over Miami. This is a massive lookahead spot for Clemson. The ACC Atlantic Division title will be on the line next week when the Tigers host FSU, and they will certainly be thinking about that game rather than focusing on the task at hand. Over the last 5 years NC St is 5-0-1 ATS when hosting a ranked opponent. Last 3 years: Upset No. 3 Florida State 17-16 as a 16-point dog in 2012, covered as a 13-point dog against No. 3 Clemson in 2013 and covered as a 18-point dog last year against FSU. I think getting an inflated line only adds that much more value here to the Wolfpack. I like the double digit home dog here.  5*

Ole Miss who is 6-2 on the season is undoubtedly in the hunt for the SEC West crown despite being trailing #4 LSU and #7 Under quarterback Chad kelly, the Rebels boast the SEC's top offense in scoring, total yards and passing. Ole Miss looked like the best team in the SEC last week in large part because left tackle Laremy Tunsil returned from a seven-game suspension. The 6-foot-5, 305-pound All-America candidate played a big part if the Rebels’ 471 total yards in a 23-3 win over Texas A&M. Quarterback Chad Kelly was hurried only twice and sacked once as he threw for 241 yards. Auburn has had major issues applying pressure with its front seven. Auburn won't be able to line up against this Ole Miss defense and march down the field. On the season, Auburn has been outgained by 1.20 yards per play in SEC action. Ole Miss meanwhile hold a very solid 1.14 ypp advantage on SEC opponents. I like this underrated MISS team to take care of business once again here on Saturday.  5*

Penn State is 6-2 overall coming into this one but I'm not buying into it that at all. The Nittany Lions have gotten the worst from a few opponents thus far as they benefited from a +3 fumbles situation in their win over San Diego State, faced a Rutgers squad that was missing a ton of key guys due to suspensions including their head coach, won against an Indiana sqaud who was without their starting quarterback in the game and Penn State was also +5 in turnovers combined in their two close wins over Army and Maryland, both of which they failed to cover the point spread against either. Overall they've only won just one game this season against a team that has a winning record. Illinois has a big edge in this one as the Illini play in their 2nd game back from a bye week while Penn State plays for the 9th straight week in a row. The Fighting Illini are yielding just 20.3 points per game and 345 yards, down from 456.4 a season ago so their defense is really stepping up. Illinois also beat Penn State last season and also played the much tougher schedule this season. The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Penn State. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.   10* College Game of the Week

We won by fading East Carolina at home against Temple last week but will switch gears and back the Pirates on Friday night as they should dominate UConn. UConn is coming off back-to-back losses, including a blowout loss at Cincinnati last week. The Huskies were outgained by a whopping 346 total yards in that contest. I have a tough time believing they'll get things sorted out against another tough offensive opponent here. This is a classic case of contender vs. pretender. The Huskies have been one of the worst bets around this season while the Pirates are capable of rising to the occasion, and I like them by double digits here on Friday night,  5*

After opening the season with 3 straight wins, West Virginia hits Fort Worth with 3 straight losses as they take on undefeated TCU. The Horned Frogs have covered in 9 of their last 10 at Carter Stadium, TCU looks like the play tonight against the Mountaineers who are a poor 3-10 against the spread on the Big Twelve road under Dana Holgorsen. With 2 weeks to prepare, it is a positive situation for the Frogs who are 12-0 ATS with rest. That’s a far dichotomous number than the 0-7 ATS mark of WVU against conference opponents when rested. With a TCU defense getting healthier by the week, it is bad news for WVU and I like TCU big here tonight at home.  5*

Texas A&M is off of a bad loss and they got physically beat up in that game. Last week, the Aggies entered as an undefeated home dog against Alabama. They leave College Station FOR THEIR FIRST TRUE ROAD GAME with the embarrassment of a (41-23) loss in which the Aggies suffered a trio of pick 6s. Last year, A&M was in a similar situation. They began the year with 5 consecutive victories before traveling to Starkville where they were beaten (48-31) by Mississippi St. The ensuing week, they returned home to face Ole Miss. With their bubble burst, they fell (35-20) courtesy of a (-3) net TO margin which included both a pick 6 and fumble 6 return. Well aware that Ole Miss is off its own embarrassing defeat, when they lost (37-24) at Memphis. But, that situation puts the advantage directly in the favor of the Rebels, who already suffered their own bubble burst after a Florida loss, only to bounce back with a (52-3) win and cover against New Mexico St. the following week. Texas A&M defense is bad at stopping the rush giving up 10 TDs on the ground. Ole Miss, I feel this team will be be primed at home on Saturday. Jaylen Walton is experienced and is a very talented RB he will be wanting to come back after his letdown play recently. This teams offensive firepower is very good and surprising.  10* College game of the month.

One week after the Kansas State Wildcats were pummeled by the Oklahoma Sooners, 55-0, they travel to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns, and it could be just as bad. That game was in Manhttan, now the 'Cats have to travel? Texas may have saved its season and coach Charlie Strong's job with a win over Oklahoma. Now the Longhorns will make a run at six wins, and become bowl eligible. Look for the difference here to be Texas' running game. Texas has shown success on the ground this season and I think will be able to carry the momentum into this game, after a 313-yard rushing performance against Oklahoma. Freshman Jerrod Heard is crafty, and knows how to make the most of open spaces. He will terrorize the Wildcats once he gets into the secondary. Texas is at home and need a win here to continue momentum and should win this one big on Saturday afternoon. 5*

4*