Duke -1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
They are just a better team and this line shows it.

Dayton +3 4.4* POD & Dayton +150 1* play
Both Dayton and Duquesne are tied in the Atlantic for 8th place which is key considering the top 8 get a home court game in the conference tournament. It

Seton Hall +2.5 (3.3* Play)
Seton Hall really needs a win to have a key win to help their NCAA tournament chances.

Uconn Huskies -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
The Huskies have been inconsistent all year long and now they are fighting for their tournament lifes.

Iowa +4 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Iowa +162 (1* play) Iowa actually out played Indiana on the road last time out shooting 63% from the field to Indiana's 55%, but -10 FTA, -17 rebounds, and - 4 TO's won't get the job done. Those are 3 areas Iowa has significant advantages at home. Indiana does not play good defense we have seen it all year and Iowa put up 89 points on them last time in their loss. I expect them to come back and win this game at home. Indiana 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite .5 to 6.5 while Iowa is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Minnesota +4 (4.4* POD); Minnesota +160 (1* bonus)
For one I like that Minnesota has an extra day of rest and preparation for their biggest game of the year. If they want to go to the tournament they can't lose this game. They dominated Northwestern the first time particularly because they held them to 32% shooting. Why? Well Northwestern really only has 2 scoring options in John Shurna and Drew Crawford who shot a combined 10 for 31 in the first match up. Minnesota has a very good defense and are holding opponents to 40.4% in their last 5 games while Northwestern just 49.4% in their last 5.

I think this will be a game that Minnesota concentrates on getting out to an early lead. That's one thing that has plagued them this year they outplayed Ohio State for most of the game last time out but got off to a 20-0 defecit. Northwestern has been outscored in the 1st and 2nd half in conference play and are 300th in the nation in rebound % while Minnesota is 84th. I think Minnesota has proven they can win on the road and if they can avoid the slow start should go on to win this game. Overall I think Northwestern will struggle to score points against Minnesota's defense at times and they won't get enough second chance opportunities to win the game.

[b]Northern Iowa +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD) NIOWA +225 (1.5* BONUS)[/b]
I think it

West Virginia +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
West Virginia has lost 5 of 6 right now and they face an equally desperate team in Pitt that likely has to win out to have a chance for the tournament.

N. Iowa +1 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Northern Iowa was a 14.5 point favorite at home and lost to Evansville, and now they are under dogs on the road. There is not way that's worth a 15.5 point swing. Both teams are fighting for a top 6 seed in the MVC tournament because they will get a bye. I like Northern Iowa down the stretch here and in their home loss they allowed Evansville to shoot 48% from the field and 26 attempts from the FT line which led to 24 points. I expect Northern Iowa to not allow free points in this game it's not their character. On the other hand Northern Iowa can only play better. They shot 40% from the field and an awful 13-23 from the FT line and turned the ball over 18 times. They only turn the ball over about 10 times per game to begin with. The game was decided by the FT line and Evansville ability to get there as well as their ability to force turnovers. Those are two things Northern Iowa can and will easily clean up. Evansville is not a very good team they allow 48.7% from the field in conference play and 47.7% when they are home so expect Northern Iowa to be able to score points in this one especially on revenge which will result in them buttoning up their defense. There is a reason they are 55-27 ATS in their last 82 as road dogs and 25-11 ATS in their last 36 overall as a dog. Evansville upset Creighton and then lost their last game vs. a team that didn't have their second leading scorer. This is a team that's about to fall fast.

Wisc-Milwaukee pk (3.3*BONUS)
Milwaukee already got revenge recently vs. Butler a team Cleveland State lost to at home on Sunday.

Louisville +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I like Louisville's ability in this game they are the hot team and they play extremely well at home on the defensive end. They have a pair of guys that will work for rebounds in the front court against Syracuse's size in Dieng 9.2 rbg and Behanan 8.8, but 12.5 during their winning streak. I think Louisville will out rebound Syracuse tonight and that will provide the spark they need especially in transition offense. Both teams like to create steals and score in transition. When this becomes a half court game both teams are pretty much even as both play exceptional defense. Louisville can institute the press which can create issues as it did for West Virginia on Saturday in their come back win. Louisville has dominated the Orange of late and Syracuse is due for a tough loss on the road and this one would be it.

Kansas St +4 (3.3* bonus) Kansas State was in a similar situation exactly a year ago on revenge vs. Kansas and they came out and absolutely dominated Kansas. They will be up for this game tonight in front of a sell out crowd and I believe they come up with their best effort of the season. They were out rebounded by 24 and shot 31% at Kansas and still managed to lose by just 18. AT home they are out rebounding opponents by 7.5 and Kansas is just +1 on the road. Kansas has lost on the road in similar situations at Iowa State and Missouri and I see no reason why they won't lose this game especially since it's like Kansas State's Super Bowl.

Vandy +5 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
I love Vanderbilt in this situation because they match up with Kentucky better than any other team in the SEC. Unlike Florida this team has size down low to go along with the perimeter play that should challenge a Kentucky defense that struggles at times defending the 3. Austin Davis has to match up against a Sr in Festus Ezeli who is bigger and slightly taller. That should be an interesting match up here. If Kentucky continues to play solid defense they can win this game, but 43% of Vanderbilts shots are from 3 and they are shooting 42.1% in conference play and they too play great defense in conference play 37.5%. Kentucky's offense relies on freshmen and outside of Lamb this team is extremely streaky from 3 point range. It's going to be hard for Calipari to make adjustments at Vanderbilt considering the layout of the court and I think that could be a huge advantage for Vanderbilt because Kentucky is such a young team.

Kentucky starts 3 freshmen 2 sophomore's and they really lack proven depth. While Vanderbilt starts 4 seniors and 1 junior and pound for pound they match up extremely well as I mentioned before. Vanderbilt has been in this spot before and have come out on top more often than not hosting a #1 seed of late. They beat Kentucky 5 of the last 6 at home and again I think they'll be right in this game. After all Kentucky has played in just 6 road games and are 5-1. Their only challenge came from Indiana in a 72-73 loss. Their other 5 games are vs. teams with RPI's of 137, 135, 117, 79, and 177. Vanderbilt is a real opponent at 27th and their home court advantage should be crazy tonight. It will be interesting to see how a young team plays in this big game.

Iona -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
This one is for the MAAC title likely although Loyolla will still get a visit from Fairfield who is still in this thing.

Portland State -1 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Portland State is 5-6 in the Big Sky while Idaho State is 6-5 despite beating Idaho State the first time around.

Nebraska +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Nebraska facing a ranked team in Michigan that just lost at Michigan State and should be in a let down spot yet again with a match up against Indiana. Nebraska needs this game desperately and Doc Sadler is too good of a coach after giving up 54% form the field to Minesota this is the perfect match up for them because Michigan is struggling to score points in an efficient way. Tim hardaway Jr. shooting just 33.6% in his last 11 games 22% from 3 and Michigan has lost 6 of 7 on the road and were out rebounded by 24 in their last game. Nebraska can pull off an ugly win here today and I"m betting they will.

Florida +9 (4.4* NCAAB POD)

Kentucky may be 15-0 at home, but they are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Florida is a team that can absolutely beat them on the road if they got hot and I still think 9 points is a bit too much in a match up between the two best in the SEC. First of all Kentucky is a team dominated by their front line while Florida is a team dominated by their perimeter play and that

Missouri won in dramatic fashion in their last game over Kansas despite trailing by 8 points with less than 2.5 minutes to go, but they pull off the upset of ranked Kansas.

Iona -3 (5.5* NCAAB POD) This is an interesting match up Iona was blowing big leads than a week ago they went to Fairfield. I took a trip down to watch this game live as I had another MAX play involved backing the Gaels and they did not disapoint. They lost as 10.5 favorites vs. Manhattan at home. A team that won 6 games all of last year and lost by 40 to Iona on their home court will try to hold off the surging Gaels. This will not be a good day for Manhattan who is tied atop the MAAC conference with Iona. Iona is the best team in this conference they shoot over 50% on the road and their inside out offense is hard to defend even for Manhattan. Michael Glover has the inside presence and rebounding skills and Mo Mo Jones the transfer from Arizona has the ability to shoot outside and drive it to the basket (43 points in his last game) and probably the most valuable player of them all the passer in point guard Sr. Scott Machado who is 12th in the nation in assist to turnover margin. Manhattan is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a road team with a win% greater than .600 while Iona lost ATS in their last and are 9-1-1 ATS in the following game. They have circled this one on their calendar and it's a must win game.

Tennessee Tech +2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAB POD
Ten Tech

Ball State +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Ball State was the MAC contender before the season started and they returned just about everyone after 19 wins a year ago. Ball State can play defense against Buffalo tonight and win in my opinion. They have to stay out of the long scoring droughts and play a full game, but they can definitely keep this game in striking defense and will tonight. They are allowing 38.7% from the field in road games this year and I think Bal State's Jarrod Jones is a difficult match up for Buffalo and should have a huge game.

Illinois +2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Love the Illinois team tonight playing on ESPN against a ranked opponent as a home dog. Public loves Michigan State of course. Illinois is very capable of upsets they beat Ohio State at home as +8.5 point under dogs. Tonight off 3 losses this is a desperate team that's looking to rebound. Illinois is holding opponents under 40% at home and Michigan State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips here 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite .5 to 6.5.

Pitt +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD Pitt has now off back to back wins and now they are on a mission. They are a different team now that they have Tray Woodall back to play point guard. Meanwhile the young Mountaineers are off back to back losses and they got robbed of upsetting Syracuse on Saturday after being up by a ton. Now the young team that seems to be a little fragile has to play a Pitt team that desperately needs to start putting together a winning resume. Pitt is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings and they are the #1 rebound % team. I give them a good shot to pull off the upset here tonight in what should be a very close game. Princeton +2 (2.2* bonus)

Santa Clara +3 (5.5* NCAAB POD) Not a very exciting match up by any means between two bad teams, but we are not about exciting match ups we just want to win money and I think this is the best opportunity to do that on Saturday. Santa Clara is a team searching for it's first conference win which is hard to believe considering this team beat Villanova and New Mexico and scored 54 points on Oklahoma in 2nd half of a game earlier in the year. They've had a lot of discipline issues throughout, but if there is a team they would need to face to get on the win board in conference play that would be Pepperdine. Pepperdine has had suspensions and injuries of their own creating a huge depth issue which has led them to really slow the pace in which they can hardly ever get into a rhytm as they are averaging under 40% from field. Santa Clara can at least score points and run a bit and I think this is a great opportunity for them to get a win. They faced a similar type team in Eastern Michigan a few weeks back that was among the worst in the nation in possessions per game like Pepperdine and they came out with a win by 20 points. Santa Clara is averaging 7 more field goal attempts than their opponents and if they get that yet again they should be able to win. Clara is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a dog .5 to 6.5 while Pepp is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 as a home favorite.

[b]Iona -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)[/b]
I love Iona here tonight coming off a loss most teams might be in for another let down, but here I think they get back on track.

[b]Tenn Tech -1 (5.5* MAX NCAAB POD)[/b]
TN Tech was guilty of a let down at home vs. Jax State after nearly defeating the only team left in the conference that

UAB +9.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD); UAB +400 1* This is it for a very talented UAB team and they know it. They have some revenge against Marshall and I believe they match up very well against Marshall a team that only forced 9 TO's in the first match up. That's been the issue for UAB they are turning the ball over 17 times per road game, but Marshall doesn't force turnovers they rebound well and play decent defense. UAB plays better defense and rebounds well enough not to get blown out in a conference game. Marshall just 60% from the FT line and in the first match up they shot just 39.7% from the field. IF you UAB can crawl back and play solid defense they'll have a chance in the end to win and get their second conference win that should propel them moving forward. Marshall off a tough road loss could be caught in a tough spot here playing an athletic UAB team. It's not like Marshall is very good offensively to cover this kind of points.

Cinci +5.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I believe these are two very closely matched teams with Syracuse and Cinci both having solid defenses, but Syracuse with the edge on offense. HOwever, this game is at Cinci hosting a ranked opponent with a chance to upset a #1 team at home on ESPN. Those opportunities do not come often and the Bearcats are very capable especially since Syracuse is down at the moment losing their first game and coming off shooting just 34% at Notre Dame and Cinci is much better defensively than ND holding opponents to 38% at home and they have beaten 3 straight ranked opponents. Syracuse will be without Fab Melo at Center and he's been called the "key to their defense." I think that's a huge loss and should impact this game. Syracuse is also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite .5 to 6.5.

Long Beach St -1.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD) These two teams have met for the last two conference championships with an opportunity to go to the NCAA tournament. The last two years after dominating the conference regular season Long Beach State has lost in the championship game. They have had this game circled on their calendars all year long and their early season schedule will benefit them. This is a team that upset Pittsburgh (we called that one), and their losses came to Louisville, Kansas, Kansas State and North Carolina. They are led by a SR back court in Casper Ware and Larry Anderson that remember the last two conference championship games well. I think their is a reason Long Beach is favored here they are simply a better team and are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 as a favorite .5 to 6.5 points. They are also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings with UCSB. While UCSB is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Saturday's and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a home dog. That to me makes me wonder just how tough UCSB is and I think Long Beach will use this game to show the nation they will be in the tourney this year.

Penn State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Penn State are losers of 3 straight and Illinois off a huge win vs. Ohio State their last time out and are now ranked #1 in the Big Ten.

UAB +4.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD); +184 (1* bonus) Rice has never beaten UAB since joining the conference as they are 0-6 and although Rice is off to a great start I think UAB is a more desperate team especially after starting 0-3 in the conference against the 3 best conference teams. They blew leads in all of those games. Even the head coach said, "We played the so called 3 best teams and we should be 3-0." Expect them to really come out in this game and dominate. Rice's strength is the double double machine Arsalan Kazemi 14.3 ppg and 12 rebounds per game, but UAB has a better match up in the bigger stronger Forward Cameron Moor 15.3 ppg 10.3 rbg and 2.9 blocks. That's advantage to UAB. UAB is actually playing better defense and has a better perimeter game where Rice struggles on defense. Rice has also failed to be consistent at the FT line and is ranked 252nd in the nation. Although they were great in their last game I don't expect them to be better or consistent moving forward.

4.4* NCAAB POD

Louisville +4.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Louisville had a rough stretch but they were able to bounce back with a win vs. Depaul after losing 4 of 5 games. NOw they're under dogs on the road again and I think they come up with a big effort vs. an inconsistent Marquette team that tends not to really blow opponents out. Marquette is also off a couple wins so their confidence is riding high and they've shown a tendency to have a let down vs. a decent defense in Vanderbilt as they lost at home in that game. An awful Villanova team was extremely competitive to at Marquette and Louisville should be to after all they are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 rod games vs a team with a winning home record. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a road dog so expect them tow in this game.

Illinois State +1.5(4.4* NCAAB POD) The Red Birds coming off back to back losses against their conference best teams are hungry. In both games they shown the ability to rally when they're down and now they'll be playing a must win type game. The players are hungry and they haven't won at Drake in some time, but Drake is nothing special lets be honest. They are allowing 50% from the field defensively in conference games and they are terrible at the FT line shooting 61% in conference play to Illinois State's 75%. I'll take that advantage any day. The Dog is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings so I expect them to cover yet again.

S. Alabama +1 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Troy and Southern Alabama both 1-3 in the Sun Belt with similar opponents, but Southern Alabama has the momentum. The only shot I give to Troy in this game is if they shoot the lights out from the perimeter. They do shoot 26 three's a game so if they make enough of them ya sure they can beat Southern Alabama, but Southern Alabama has too many other advantages. For one they are better offensively and defensively statistically. They also shoot better from the FT line and they have a +7.9 rebound margin this year while Troy is at -5.3. I feel Southern Alabama's size will give Troy issues especially Javier Carter and Augustine Rubit. Troy is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Sun Belt and the road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Troy beat Southern Alabama on the road in the last meeting so I expect a little pay back in this one.

South Florida +2.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
A ranked opponent on a Friday night in South Florida.

Wisconsin +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD); Wright St +8 bonus
Love Wisconsin tonight as I think they rebound from their 1-3 start in Big Ten play they are still a contender in this conference and I think they match up well vs. Purdue.

Denver +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Love Denver tonight as they have revenge on their mind against Colorado State who seems to be looking ahead to their conference opener in 3 days. Denver looks to have their best team in years and should contend for the Sun Belt Title. The Dog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and I think Colorado State should have issues inside agaisnt Chris Udofia who blocks a lot of shots. Denver also the better FT shooting team at 81% and averages more blocks and steals. They already beat Boise and Wyoming out of the Mountain West and they'd love to beat an in state rival.

4.4* NCAAB POD

[b]LSU/Alabama Over 40 2.2* play[/b]
[b]First points will be a FG +150 2* play[/b]
Both teams are among the best in the nation in red zone defense and I expect both teams not to want to make the first mistake early expect the game to heat up with some shots down the field and I believe this game goes over the total but as far as the first points of the game you can

Kent St +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Kent State the reigning MAC Champions in back to back years will look to continue that when they tip of MAC play tonight at Buffalo. Buffalo a team that loves to run and shoot the threes. Kent State has been playing pretty good defense and they have also stolen the ball 9.2 times per game while forcing 17.2 turnovers. Buffalo is turning it over 16.8 times which won't help them in this match up. I look for Kent State who gets some players back including C Justin Mann who was suspended for 3 games to take advantage and make a statement in the MAC opener.

4.4* NCAAB POD

Tx Tech +11 (4.4* NCAAB POD)

5* NCAAB POD

Rhode Island +5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Love RI don't buy into Providence record they have schedule a weak schedule before they get into the Big East schedule they have a new coach a new rotation and 4 guys are averging nearly a full game. RI should be able to tire them out and have an advantage in the rebound margin. RI are actually +4 in rebound margin already so expect them to continue that again to night against a team they match up well with. Their defense should improve when they play their rival they have beaten them at home the last 4 meetings here. The Fryars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on the road and they have not played many teams on the road this year. Speaking of the teams they've played 9 of their 10 wins have come against teams in the 200s in RPI and 4 of those teams were actually over 300. RI has help on the way in the 2nd semester with some transfers and it would be real important to get a buzz going again if they can win this game.

MTSU +2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Close calls the last two days in games but we fell on the wrong side this time we'll have the dog so when it gets to be a close game again we should be fine. MTSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a dog .5 to 6. Miss has been prone to playing a lot of close games this year and MTSU actually won earlier in the year by 20 points vs. UCLA so they are very capable of taking down a big team. MTSU is shooting a nation's second best 53.7% from the field and over 40% from the perimeter. while the Rebels come in at just 43%. Both teams play good defense with Miss allowing 39.2% shooting by opponents and MTSU right behind them with 39.5%. The main advantage on paper is that Miss averages 40 rebounds a game while MTSU is at 35, but a closer look reveals that's more to do with FGA per game as Miss is 70th with a 52.9% rebound percentage while MTSU comes in at 93rd with 52.3%. MTSU I believe actually matches up well pound for pound down low with Laron Dendy 6-9 230 and JT Sulton 6-8 230. Miss has 4 guys between 6-7 and 6-10, but I believe MTSU has more talent in this one in what will be an back and forth game I'm taking the better shooting team.

Idaho -2.5 4.4* play
Idaho is really playing well and it

I love Western Illinois here as Illinois Chicago overall is allowing 48.4% shooting on this season and they are also a terrible FT shooting team themselves.

PRINCETON +2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)

Oakland +2.5 (5.5* play) Other than facing off against Arizona Valpo has faced nobody. They are 5-0 at home, but they are among the nation's slowest paced teams and even in their 5 home games they are allowing opponents to shoot the ball 10 more times than them. That's outrageous 10 more field goal attempts and they are not even playing good defense to be able to over come that with 48.1% on the season 40% form 3. Oakland meanwhile averages over 62 FGA that's more than 12 more than Valpo. They like to play fast and that should have an impact. This Oakland team again is the favorite to come out of their conference for the third straight year and they have played 4 big teams already in Alabama, Michigan, Arkansas and Tennessee and they came up with a win vs. Tennessee. Valpo does not have the defense to shut this team down and they don't have the scoring to keep up though they are ranked high in FG% they really haven't been pushed with tempo like they will be tonight and they are due to lose at home especially since they are averaging 17 turnovers per game. Oakland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road dog.

NC Wilm +14(4.4*) These are two teams that know each other well playing two times a year, NC Wilm continues to play well as under dogs going 5-1 ATS so far this season they just won at Ill State as 12.5 dogs 63-54. VCU is off a huge win vs. Richmod so in my opinion this line is inflated while VCU is likely looking ahead to UAB who beat them last year. VCU is only shooting 39.7% from the field this year and NC Wilm plays solid defense especially from 3 point on the road allowing just 25.5% from the perimeter. That's important because VCU is hoisting up 22 attempts per game from the perimeter. This is not the same VCU team that went to the Final Four a year ago and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Colonial because of infalted lines like this one. NC Wilmington's freshmen Adam Smith is becoming a star and should give them fits. NC Wilmington is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 as a dog 13+ and they should have every opportunity to win this one.

Idaho State -2 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Utah is worse in every category. At least Idaho State can force turnovers. Utah just 8.9 forced turnovers per game and they are giving it up 14 times they can't even take advantage of Idaho State's weakness. Both teams have a common opponent in Boise State who they played on the road. Both teams played poorly, but Idaho State played better defense and better offense as far as FG% goes. Idaho pretty much played right with Boise other than the fact that Boise out rebounded them and got to the FT line a ton more times. Meanwhile Utah got blown out despite getting to the FT line more they gave up 46.7% from the field and 55.6% from 3 point range.

Denver -3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Love Denver here first of all Denver is 16th in the nation in FG% running the Princeton offense effectively with Senior Leadership including the key return of Rob Lewis and Brian Stafford.

Niagara +6.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Drexel beat Niagara badly a year ago 84-39 and as we have seen in many cases in betting that team usually comes back the next time with some revenge. In that game they were out rebounded -23, out shot 54% to 29% and had a -3 turnover margin. Now they are at home and they do play a Drexel team that is very very good on defense, but Niagara has Antoine Mason back after injury they did not have him a year ago when they shot 29% and he was their leading scorer with over 16 points per game.

Now Niagara is a relatively large home dog on revenge in this spot and they are playing a Drexel team that really struggles to score points particularly on the road. Thus far they are 320th in scoring and 320th in FG%. Now Niagara is not juggernaut at defense, but their offense has started to click and they are scoring into the 70's in 3 of their last 4 games including an impressive game at home vs. Fairfield. They're also forcing 17 turnovers per game at home which has been reason for their poor defensive FG% defense as they take some chances. I believe their motivation will be high tonight facing Drexel and they should get it done. Drexel themselves are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing record at home while Niagara ae 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games alone. Don't be surprised if Niagara wins this game out right which would be a +260 pay day.

IONA +1.5 5.5* NCAAB POD

Manhattan +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Not an exciting game by any means, but Manhattan has caught my eye and they are playing good basketball and now they play a team they play every year and have lost the last 4 they have the confidence, finally to take them down and I believe they will here today. This is a team that's 4-0 ATS on the road this year 3-1 straight up as all 4 they have been under dogs. Some of their offensive statistics are not as bad as they appear as they played games without their leading scorer George Beamon, but Beamon is back in this one. Hofstra meanwhile has struggled big time barely getting past teams and are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 at home as a favorite .5 to 6.5. Manh is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 raod games. I also like that Manh is +4.5 rebound margin this year and 72.7% from the FT line.

Harvard +6 (4.4* NCAAB POD) On this team earlier this year they are a team that is poised to come into the NCAA tournament at the end of the year they can play inside and out and they can play with the talented teams in the nation. The Huskies are as good as they come so it will be real interesting to see what happens tonight, but the Huskies usually get in trouble in these type of games and are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite .5 to 6.5 points and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Ivy League.

I'll st -3.5 8.8* pod

pENN sT -1.5 4.4* pod

4.4* pod

CINCI -1.5 11* POD

Wisconsin +7.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) UNC is in a tough sandwich game as they just lost to UNLV so a hang over is expected as they also look ahead to facing # 1 Kentucky on Saturday. With that said they have been out rebounded 3 times this year and have the tendency to go cold when they missed their first 10 shots of the 2nd half in their last game. Wisconsin is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 and bring in the nation's #1 defense in points allowed and FG% at 30.5% and 22% defense beyond the arch. Wisconsin can also shoot them and they are at +13.5 rebound margin and hardly ever turn the ball over at 8.5 per game. They'll have all the statistical advantages and I think this game is close throughout.

Arkansas St -3.5 (4.4* POD) Arkansas plays good defense we saw it last game vs. Louisville. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Ohio Valley Conference. Arkansas State beat SE Missouri on the road last year 56-50 despite playing poorly. They return home in this match up where they went 13-0 last year. They have been solid defensively and SE Missouri has played bad defense which I believe will lead to them covering this line as they are giving up 47% FG while Ark State is at 39.1%. They're expected to compete yet again for the Sun Belt Division title ast hey return their 1-2 punch F Adams and swingman Finn. SE has F Leon Powell, but I like the depth and experience down low for Ark State which should keep Powell in check as he was just 4-9 from the field a year ago.

Colorado -4 -105 (4.2* NCAAB POD) Like Colorado here they open up their home schedule tonight and are going up on revenge for their loss last year at Georgia. Georgia lost 3 key players to last year and it's evident as their leading scorer and leading player as far as playing time goes (min/g) is the highly touted freshmen Pope and he's shooting just 38%. Georgia is really struggling to score points and that will be a real problem facing Colorado who despite losing a large portion of their offense knows how to score especially at home. They were 12th in the nation last year in the nation in scoring at nearly 80 points per game. Georgia is also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non conference games and haven't shot well to start the year and I expect that to continue as they move to high elevation here tonight.

4.4* POD

Okl St +1.5 (3.3* play)

Texas- San Antonio -3.5 (4.4* POD)
This is a team that went on quite the role at the right time last year winning 6 in a row and then winning in the four play in game to get to face off against Ohio State.

Bowling Green -4 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I like the speed and athleticism of BG over Austin Peay who is just 23-48-6 ATS in their last 77 non conference games. While Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite. This is a team that only lost to Georgia by 9 and if they did not get off to a slow start would have been in that game. Austin Peay is even worse starting off in games and I believe Bowling Green gets to the FT line a ton tonight.

Hawaii +13.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Gonzaga returns three starters and many figure they'll be better than last year as they came on late, but they did lose their best player in Steven Gray and have 5 freshmen that will be in rotation. To me that's too much inexperience and Hawaii comes into this game with 7 returners including their top scorer in Arizona transfer Zane Johnson. They also mix in athletic post players in Joaquim, and Justin Thomas and recruited the star from NY in Shaquile Stokes to run the point. They have all the ingredients to make some noise this year. Hawaii is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a winning team and Gonzaga is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. I think Hawaii has a chance to win this game outright as they look ahead to their next few games against Notre Dame, Illinois and Michigan State.

Bama -2 4.4* play

Arizona -2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) I actually think we have value here even though the line opened up at pk and moved to -2.5. Arizona is 3-0 SU, but 0-3 ATS, and St. Johns has played three teams that just are not very good and they return 1 player from last year's team that went to the tournament. They have quality players they recruited that won't be joining the team right away. I think the fact that St John's was trailing in 2 of their 3 games this year tells the story especially when they were down vs. William and Mary 33-26, and Lehigh 43-33 before coming back in the 2nd half. That won't fly vs. a very athletic Arizona team. Arizona has also even played well at MSG.

Long Beach State +13.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Pitt has the makings of a national title contender, but they return just two starters, and may struggle early. For instance they trailed Rider by 6 in the 2nd half in their last game. Meanwhile Long Beach State returns 81% of their scoring and 4 experienced starters including Point Guard Casper Ware who was the Big West player of the year and defensive player of the year. Along with the experience they add a JUCO transfer in James Ennis at 6-8 he's a versatile player that should give the Panthers troubles he averaged 20.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5 assists a year ago. This is the same team that went 22-12 last year and lost by just 5 at North Carolina year ago. Pitt is just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite 13+.

Butler +3.5 5.5* pod
For uconn to win and cover the spread will be a challenge both these teams play excellent defense and have limited scorin threats. Which means low scoring and a tight
Game and I believe it will be another
Game decided in the final minutes. Uconn really doesn't gave an offensive game inside an butler is one of the better teams defending the perimeter and dribble penetration. Butler will have an advantage on the boards like they have all tournament this is the key to the game butler will get second chance opportunities if they can take advantage they will win. Key player is butlers guard Shawn vanzant we
Know all about Mack and Howard if vanzant can knock down some threes I give butler an excellent shot at winning.

Butler -2.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
Well I hated to see the match up of two teams I backed multiple times and cashed with during this tournament, but I like Butler. Experience is not everything but it will be what gives Butler the edge in this game. Butler also beat Colonial conference foe of VCU Old Dominion who beat VCU 2 of 3 times and 2 in a row to close the season. If you can believe it VCU is 298th in rebound margin this year and 238th in FG defense. Somehow they are here because they shot 44% from three this tournament and their defense has forced turnovers. With the exception of the Purdue game where they shot out of their minds they have relied on turnovers and their 3 point game. Forcing 14, 16, 17, and 15 along the way, just 7 against Purdue, but again they put up 96 points because they shot nearly 60% that just won't happen against Butler one of the more diciplined teams in the nation. They also are not going to force Butler into 10+ turnovers. With Shelvin Mack handling the ball and an experienced back court and experience in this game I expect Butler to take care of business. Butler is also holding opponents under 29% from three this post season and are known for their defense. They are 40-16-2 ATS in their last 58 non conference games and 17-5 ats in their last 22 tournament games. Joey Rodriguez and the rest of the perimeter shooters are nice but eventually they will cool off and I'm guessing this will be the game. Butler will play their slower half court game and take advantage. It will be a close game in the 2nd half but I'm confident the experience will give Butler the edge down the stretch.

3.3* play

Wichita State -1.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD) Don't know much about Wichita State well I'll give them some credibility right off the bat if their blow out of Washington State in the semifinal was not enough. They have 5 seniors and 7 players that can score. They lost to Uconn early in the season by just 4 points a team in the final four. They also lost to VCU by just 1 point and won at Alabama's rival LSU. Wichita is 4-2 on neutral court and 14-4 on neutral/away while Alabama always seems to struggle in these type of games where they are not enjoying their home court. They are 6-11 on the year in these games and 4-11 before this tournament started. I think the #4 seed being the favorite has a lot to say. Look for Wichita St to get Green in foul problems much like Colorado did and win this game.

3.3*

Oregon +4.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Its a unique tournament in that the finals are a best of 3 and Creighton will host Oregon in game #1. I think both teams match up well and are even. The edge comes on the side of Oregon and their head coach Dana Altman who spent 16 years as the Creighton coach before he left in April. Altman was Creighton basketball and ironically he sees them in an all familiar place Monday night. He has connection to all of these players and I believe he will use it to his advantage.

Butler +4.5 BODOG (5.5* POD) It is hard not to go with a team that is 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 as an under dog 22-6 ATS in their last 28 on neutral court as an under dog and 20-4-2 last 26 vs. a team with a win% above .600. This team gets it done in an ugly way, but they get it done. In the end trends are made to balance out, but I"m not betting they will with this team. Much has been said that this team is not as good as last years team. Why? Gordon Hayword left. Okay, but they still have Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard who were more of the heart of last years team than Hayward was. Now the big key they didn't have a year ago as a key part is Andrew Smith. The center allowed Matt Howard to move back to forward and gives Butler a better defensive game plan. Brad Stevens will have his team ready to go they already knocked out two big headed monsters in Wisconsin out of the Big 10, Pittsburgh out of the Big East now it's time for Florida out of the SEC a league I still don't have respect for despite what Kentucky did last night. Kentucky beat this Florida team two times this year and this is a team that lost games at Central Florida and Jaxonville two in state games that they took lightly and lost. I'm not saying they will take Butler lightly, but again they will match up and think to themselves how can we lose to this team that is not as athletic or big as us and in the end I think Butler will be in the game. Even when they lost 4 games in a 5 game stretch in late January into early Febraury the games were all close and on the road including two games in OT. This team is experienced and their defense will get it done against a Florida team that really has had an easy trip getting here after nearly escaping vs. BYU team that to me is another over rated team. Fredette only shot 11 of 29 and they still forced OT. Look for Butler once again to be in this late in the game with a chance to win it.

Ohio State -6 (4.4* POD)
Ohio State has too much inside out presence for this young Kentucky team. I really thought Kentucky should have lost last week against West Virginia, but I believe they fall to the team that has dominated their opponents winning by an average of 30pts this post season.

Butler +5 (5.5* play); Butler +175 (1.5* bonus) This team just won't go away and I don't expect them to on Thursday. They get a good match up they are capable of winning. They already knocked off Pitt and now they play a very disciplined Wisconsin team that nearly lost to over rated Kansas State. There is a lot more experience on the side Butler that took them to the National Title game a year ago against Duke and I like Howard's size down low. Butler is your typical under dog and I will back them catching points they always seem to give you a close game and this will be nothing different.

5* pod

St. Clara +2.5 (4.4* play) Love St. Clara here today it's so hard to beat the same team three times in a season and I think Clara will be ready to beat San Fran when it counts. They got better in their second match up with them as they played better defense and did not shoot as many threes where in the first game they shot 37 of them. I look for Clara to play well but the negative turnover margin that they had in both games against ST. Clara will hurt them this time.

4.4* POD

Wisconsin -3 -120 (5.5*pod) I really like Wisconsin's ability to play defense. We already have seen the Big Tens dominance early with Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St and Michigan dominating their opponents with just Michigan St losing in the first round. Big 12 is not as good and although we profited on Kansas St a lot this year and int he first round now it's time to cut ties. This team is just too inconsistent and the stat that sticks out like a sore thumb is this. Kansas St 14.5 to's a game, while they force a lot of turnovers they give them up a lot too. Wisconsin gives up just a 7.3 per game this year. They are going to have a +turnover margin meaning extra shots and possessions and that's huge in a game of this magnitude especially when Wisconsin gave up the 3rd least amount of points this season. 2nd stat is the FT% Kansas State is under 65% while Wisconsin is over 82%. Wisconsin was a team that could find them selves not being consistent too but right now they seem to be dialed in after beating a good Belmont team and I think they'll move on here in easy fashion. .

5.5* play

Nova -1 (5.5* POD) Nova ended the season horribly and it has led to the #9 seed and a match up with George Mason. They are still small favorites in this game at a point and it's hard believe this team started the year 16-1. This team is very motivated for this tournament and they have the players to go a long way and pull some major upsets. The good thing is they will be an under dog the entire way so I think that will really push this team. After all they are a Sr. led team by Corey Strokes and Corey Fisher. The overall athleticism is going to give George Mason troubles.

3.3* play

Cinci 5* play

4.4 * play

Wichita -5 4.4* pod

5.5* play

4.4* play

San Diego St -2 (5.5 Dime POD)
SDS got beat twice to BYU yet they are favored? I think SDS has a lot to prove in this game and I look for them to shut down Jimmer Fredette who will likely not be able to repeat his performance from last night. Look for San Diego State to regain the hype they were getting before they lost to BYU.

5.5* play

UCF -4 (10**POD)
UCF lost to East Carolina twice in the regular season and East Carolina beat both Memphis and Utep down the stretch yet they are 4 point dogs to East Carolina? This makes no sense, but I'll jump on Central Florida to redeem themselves here today. East Carolina played over their head all season long. This was their first winning season since 1997 and they are 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 as dogs .5-6.5. The tourney is at Utep and if you remember UCF won at UTEP by 6 points as +8 under dogs in the last month of the season so they should have confidence and redemption on their side today.

5** play

4.4* play

5* play

Mich St pk (5.5 Dimes);
Mich St is on a major revenge spot here against Michigan who earlier in the year beat Michigan St in their own arena. I think Mich St is a team that can run the table and get into the tournament but it has to start here against a Michigan team that can light it up from outside. Michigan also doesn't play defense and are not a good rebounding team. IN conference play they are -5.1 rebounds and 47.4% defense. Mich St can rebound at +4.2 in conference play and that will be the difference in a close rivalry game.

Bradley -1 5.5* ma play