StonyBrook +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD (1-5 SCALE)
I think we are catching some good value with one of the betst teams out of the American East Conference. Umass may be a little foggy after losing in the A10 semifinals to VCU and we already know how Vegas and the general public love the A10 so I do believe we are getting an inflated line. Just how good is StonyBrook? Well they are the first American East team in conference history to have all three player of the year awards. They have the freshmen of the year, player of the year and defensive POY.

In addition looking at the stats I see that Stonybrook's size could be a real issue for a Umass team that relies on their game inside the 3 point line and Stony Brook is 10th in the nation allowing just 42% from 2 point range on the season and they were better on the road at 41.9%. Umass is 136th and even worse in 2 point defense at home allowing 47.2%. Stonybrook is also +1.6 TO so they won't allow Umass to get out in transition on turnovers or rebounds. Granted they play in a weaker conference, but the size they have in their front line should give Umass head aches scoring and rebounding. In additiona Umass is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. I look for Stonybrook to win the game outright and move on to the next round of the NIT tournament.

Washington +6.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
This will be my one and only college play today until the regular neutral tournament starts, but I find tremendous value in this Washington team that has been here before. Washington got to the semi-finals in last years NIT tournament after being left out of the NCAA. I'd think they have a huge chip on their shoulder and they always seem to play up in these type of games as they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with a win % above .600. BYU meanwhile has not played since March 8th which could really be an issue for them early. Both teams will shoot 2 pointers more often than 3's roughly at a 73% rate so 2 point defense will play a crucial factor. BYU is 184th in 2 point defense and has allowed 50% over their last 3. Washington is not much better at 143rd, but the athleticism and depth along the front line should give BYU issues. Offensively I like Washington's ability to runt he pick and roll, something that has given BYU issues when they've seen it this year. CJ Wilcox leads Washington and this is some sort of a home coming for him so I expect him to step up big in this game.

[b]Mississippi +10.5 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]
10.5 is a lot of points for a championship game and I see some value in the Rebels. Ole Miss can knock down the threes just like Florida who relies on the 3 ball way too much, but is shooting it less of late. I think Miss will get a little revenge from their road loss at Florida where they shot just 38% and lost by 14. The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning % greater than .600 and the under dog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Syracuse +5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I like Syracuse in this spot after Louisville won the Big East Tournament a year ago when Syracuse should have. Syracuse is just on a roll right now with their offense especially from outside. As long as they can limit the turnovers against Louisville's pesky pressure defense and turn this game into a half court battle they should be able to win. Louisville's star Siva typically struggles vs. Syracuses zone defense and if he's not able to get out in transition it could be a long day for Louisville.

Alabama +2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Alabama is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings with Tennessee and they split hte season series overall on a 1 point game and a 3 point game. I think there is value here with Alabama they really should have been 2-0 against TN but they were robbed by a no foul call in the last game. Despite getting out rebounded in both of these meetings by a total of 32 they still held Tennessee in check. If Alabama can just come close to winning the rebounding battle they could win this game easily. Alabama does make up for the differential in rebounds by their ability to force turnovers and that's where Tennessee struggles. Overall these two teams are very similar on both sides, but I"m banking on Tennessee to struggle here. Alabama has gotten better and more production from younger players and Tennessee has really struggled offensively away from home.

Texas State +16 4.4* NCAAB POD
I think there is a lot of value in Texas State right now they are coming into this game with a lot of momentum after beating Seattle as a +3 yesterday. Texas State lost at Denver by 11 and 15 at home so this spread is right inside those numbers. Denver in both games shot better than their season averages while Texas State shot below their season averages. I expect those numbers to revert back to the mean here today. Ironically when both of these teams are on the road Texas State played the better defense FG% wise and in my opinion Denver is to reliant on the three ball where they are shooting nearly 50% of their shots. That's part of the reason they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral court games. I expect this to be a close game with a playoff like atmosphere and for Texas State to carry their momentum into the game

Ball State +3 -105 3.5* NCAAB POD (Based on 1-5* scale)
I think Ball State + the points provides enough value in this situation as they finished the season on a nice winning streak winning 5 in a row and 3 of those wins came on the road as under dogs of +4.5, +9.5 and +6. They also have revenge after leading at half time at home against Buffalo. I think this team will have the advantage playing on the neutral court closer to home compared to Buffalo who has a longer travel to Cleveland.

Both teams playing on the road or neutral court and the splits for away/away are in the advantage of Ball State. Ball State is slightly better at rebounding and turnover margin as well as getting to the FT line more often. both teams rely on the 3 35%+ of the time and Ball State shoots 34.9% compared to Buffalo at 30.9%. Ball State's defense is better too from the perimeter.

2point defense is where Buffalo had the advantage during the regular season, but they have allowed 52% over thier last 3 while Ball State has allowed 47.7%. Buffalo is also 3-7 ATS following an ATS loss. I like how Ball State is playing of late and I think it's a trend that will continue into the MAC Tournament here tonight.

Charleston +7 3.3* NCAAB POD (Based on 1-5* scale).
Davidson won by 9 and 16 and they were -9.5 and -3 favorites this year against Charleston. Really I feel that these two match up well and based on where the spreads were during the season Davidson is getting a couple extra points for this game seeing as it's on neutral court. I think there is great value in Charleston. Davidson is coming into this game quite confident, but Charleston is very well capable of shutting down an opposing offense. That's something they did not do in the two match ups against Davidson during the year but facing them for a third time they should be able to make adjustments.

After all Charleston has proven they are one of the better defenses in the country rankings 58th in 2 point defense and holding opponents under 29.8% from beyond the arch. Davidson shoots 40% of their shots from the perimeter so that could be a key here tonight. Charleston actually plays better defense on the road than Davidson does as well as offensively from a FG% aspect. When you add in that they are also getting more FTA and have a better rebound margin I think their -13 FTA and -10 rebound in the 2 match ups combined are bound to come back to each teams averages. Charleston is also playing better of late holding opponents to 35.5% form the field over their last 5 and are +12.2 rebounds as well.

Penn State +8.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Wisconsin just came off a tough road loss to Michigan State and they will be coming into this game a little beaten up and hung over and wanting to look ahead to the start of the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday. Penn State only has 2 conference wins all season, but have 2 of them in their last 3 games including a home win against Michigan. They nearly beat Iowa as a +8 a few days before.

Wisconsin is not a high power scoring team but win with defense so this to me is a lot of points for them on the road against anyone. Penn State who was -25 FTA and -11 turnovers in the first match up only lost by 9. I expect Penn State to improve on those numbers as they are only -1.2 FTA and +.7 TO at home. Penn State also plays good defense on the perimeter where Wisconsin will take 41% of their shots allowing just 32.4% from beyond the arch. They held Wisconsin to 3-17 from three in the first game and Wisconsin has struggled going 10-50 in their last 2 games from beyond the arch. I expect those struggles to continue here today.

Texas Tech +6 4.4* NCAAB POD
Texas is 1-9 on the road this year and they are 6 point road favorites? They beat Tech 73-57 at home and have plenty of confidence going into this match up and that's the time I like to fade a team. Tech was +6 rebounds, but -9 TO's and -6 FTA in the first match up while shooting just 37% and allowing 46.3%. I'm not shocked that they shot only 37% as they take 70% of their shots from inside the arch where Texas is a dominant force at home ranked 20th overall but allowing just 38.6%, but on the road they allow 46.8%. I think Tech will have an advantage there that will allow them to have a chance to win this game as Texas is also -2 turnovers, -.9 rebound and -10.3 FTA on the road where they only shoot 39.2% themselves. Texas just beat Baylor as a home dog and is likely looking towards the Big 12 tournament. I suspect Tech to get up for this in state rivalry game.

Butler +2 3.3* NCAAB POD (Based on a 1-5* scale)
I like Butler in this spot despite their 6-4 record on the road as I believe this team is starting to get up for the last few games of their conference season in order to go into the post season with a head of steam. Umass on the other hand is content after beating Xavier as a road dog and could be getting just a little too much credit here.

In conference play one this is for sure Butler has the better defense. They are also +1.2 FTA to Umass -1.3, +6.4 rebounds to Umass +1.7, and turnovers they lose the battle at -3.8 to Umass -0.5. Butler actually plays better defense ont he road holding opponents to 39.5% shooting. Butler will rely on the 2 point game 70% of the time on the road and Umass has shown a difficult time of late defending the 2 ranking 138th in the nation at 46.6%, and 52.4% over their last 3. They are no better at home just 46%.

Butler on the other hand is ranked 82nd in 2 point defense allowing 45.1% and they allow the same % on the road. Ironically Umass is 10-3 at home and their 3 losses came to the hands of the three teams that play excellent defense on the inside. They lost to Temple who is ranked 145th overall, but plays about the same on the road as Butler holding opponents to 45% inside. They lost to George Washington who was ranked 52nd in 2 point defense and plays worse on the road than Butler and then they lost to Miami ranked 44th in the country and also holding opponents to 45.3%. There seems to be a common ingredient in Umass home losses and Butler has it.

Purdue +6.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Purdue is in an interesting spot in tonight's game with another chance to play spoiler against a top Big 10 opponent. They just knocked off Wisconsin on the road and have held their last 3 opponents to 33% shooting from the field. I see no hang over after beating Wisconsin because this team is not going to the NCAA Tournament. At this point they are taking one game at a time and looking to improve for next year, but if they win tonight all of a sudden this team could have a shot if they go deep in the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan on the other hand came off a huge win against their rival Michigan State by one point in a physical game something they are not accustomed to winning. They beat Purdue at home by 15 points the first time and likely won't take them seriously as they look ahead to facing Indiana with revenge at home on Saturday. This is your classic look ahead and Purdue does a lot of things well enough to win this game. In the first match up Purdue only shot 38.9% and were -3 FTA, -7 rebounds and -2 TO, while Michigan shot 49.1% and 43% from three. I don't see that happening Purdue actually has played better overall defense in conference play and at home they are holding opponents to 40.7% from 2 point range 31.6% from 3 point range. They are also +3.9 FTA, +7.5 rebound and +0.5 TO whiel Mich is -2.7 FTA, -1.1 rebounds. I like Purdue to have some success shooting the ball tonight too. They'll take 78.2% of their shots form inside the arch and that's where Michigan's weakness is defensively. The Wolverines are ranked 167th overall allowing 47.2% and 48% on the road. I see Purdue getting their revenge tonight.

Loyola +2.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Youngstown won 2 x this year by a combined total of 3 points against Loyola. Conference wise Loyola had the better season offensively and defensively by a pretty wide margin from a FG% perspective. They are also +2 rebound margin to Youngstown -5.2. Despite all of that they lost both times against Youngstown and easily could have won both games. In the first game they blew a 5 point lead and in the 2nd game they nearly came back from a 15 point half time deficit outscoring Youngstown 39-26 in the second half on their own court. I think Loyola will get the last laugh in the conference tournament in a close game.

Texas +1.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Baylor already beat Texas and just suffered a devastating loss on Saturday to Kansas State on their home court. They also have Kansas up next after this game so it's a hang over / look ahead game in my opinion, but Texas has been tough at home. Baylor had a hard enough time against them in the first match up winning in OT despite getting to the FT line 31 more times than the Longhorns. That won't happen on the road where they are -3.8 FTA and Texas is +3.5 FTA. Texas is also + in rebound margin even in TO margin while Baylor is negative in both categories.

I think my favorite stat is that Texas is ranked 4th overall in the nation in 2 point defense at home holding opponents to 38.4%. They are ranked 24th overall on the season and Baylor will have a hard time scoring from there and the perimeter where Texas is holding opponents to 26.8% from the field.

Boston College +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I'm fading Virginia who is in a huge hang over game here. BC already has gone 5-0 ATS as a home dog this year and nearly beat Duke and Miami, losing by 1 point to both. They would love to get revenge against Virginia who beat them by 14 in the first meeting. The first game Virginia shot 56.2% from field and attempted 81% of their shots from two. BC is much better at defending the paint at home, roughly an 8.6% swing. BC should also get to the FT line a lot more and their offensive production can only go up from where they were in the first game where they shot just 36.2% from the field. Virginia's defense is not great on the road allowing 46.4%. Virginia is also 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games while BC is 17-8-1 ATS following a loss.

Miss State +12.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Seattle +1 4.4* NCAAB POD
Seattle is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and they go up against Texas State who beat them in Seattle the last time these two met. Both are similarly bad in conference play with losing records so this game is all about revenge. I see Seattle as the better team when you look at conference stats they are only -4.9 points per game while Texas State is -11.9. Seattle is also +2.5 FG% as they are shooting better than opponents in conference play while Texas State is -8.5 FG% in that department. Seattle is also +5 rebound margin while Texas State is -10 rebound margin. Texas State has not played well at home either where they are -8.9 points. Seattle

Connecticut +1.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
I looked over about 8 games and I only liked this one. First of all Georgetown is coming off a huge win at Syracuse and now their ranking is a bit inflated. Uconn meanwhile has been playing lights out and continue to play hungry. UConn has 3-0 at Gampel vs. Georgetown where they don't normally play. Gampel will have more energy than when they play at the XL Center tonight and should be a great environment. On the other hand Georgetown has lost 6 of their last 7 visits to Uconn by an average of 22 points.

I think we get a mix of Georgetown playing a little hung over with too much confidence. Also Uconn's greatest weakness which is rebounding is not a real strength of Georgetown who is -1.6 over their last 5 games and ranked 131st in rebounding %. Uconn meanwhile is uncharacteristic of their past teams shooting 74% from the FT line at home and is getting to the line +7.1 times vs. opponents. They also should win the turnover margin with their guard play and if they continue shooting the ball like they have of late they should cruise.

Minnesota +5.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Indiana beat Minnesota by 7 points at home when the two were still in the top 10. Now Indiana is clearly the #1 team but they are going on the road after just defeating Michigan State. Minnesota is a desperate team playing for their NCAA Tourney lifes. Indiana is full of confidence and they should be having just beat Michigan State on the road. However, I think there might be one more stop in the Gophers. They beat Wisconsin and Michigan State at home why not Indiana?

In the first match up they were -25 FTA and -3 rebounds. They also allowed Indiana to shoot 50.9% from the field. Getting back to playing at home should allow them to improve on those numbers where they are +16.1 ppg. Minnesota is also holding opponents to 37.6% from the field and is +13 in rebound margin +8.2 in FT attempts. This games comes down to defense inside the arch where both teams take 70% of their shots. Both are ranked in the top 30 in the nation in 2 point defense. Minnesota however allows opponents just 40.2% in home games while Indiana is allowing 43.7%. Offensively Minnesota is also playing better inside the arch in the home/away splits. Stats are not everything but I think it's enough to justify getting 5.5 points. I think there is a lot of value on a desparate Minnesota team here tonight and I think they will capitalize and have a chance to win the game.

Cincinnati +3 3.3* NCAAB POD
Cinci lost the first match up by 6 at home due to the fact that they allowed Notre Dame to shoot 50% fromt he field and 9-16 from three point land. That is not usually the theme of this Bearcats team that preaches defense by their head coach Mick Cronin. I look for the Bearcats to come up with a huge win here today on the road. They are losers of 4 of their last 5 games and need a win badly to continue their quest to the NCAA Tournament. Notre Dame meanwhile is off a big win at Pitt where they were +10.5 under dogs. Cinci 16-6 ATS in their alst 22 road games, 18-8 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss.

Nova -1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Villanova is 10-4 at home playing Marquette who is just 3-5 on the road. Both play similar styles in conference play so what separates them is their ranking which we benefit from in this situation because we are getting Nova at home with value in my opinion. Marquette will take nearly 71% of their shots from two point land and that falls into Nova's strengths where they are ranked 19th in the country in 2 point defense. Marquette on the other hand is ranked 75th in that department.

Nova's biggest weaknesses however are turnovers and three point defense. We already touched on Marquette's ability to knock down threes and how often they take them. Marquette is also -2.1 turnover margin in their road games so I think this will give Nova the edges they need to come up with a big win today.

Princeton -2 -102 3.3* NCAAB POD
Columbia beat Harvard at home, but other than that they have not been a very good home team. They were -13 against Dartmouth and lost, and then -8 vs. Cornell and lost. Princeton is sitting in 2nd place with games ahead vs. Cornell and Harvard. Those are exactly the two teams that stand in their way to get to the NCAA Tournament. Princeton is smart enough not to look ahead to those games as they need to win tonight and they are the superior team. Normally I would fade Princeton in this spot looking ahead, but now all these games are critical and what exactly is Columbia playing for?

I think the fact that Columbia nearly beat PRinceton on the road will be enough for Princeton to take them seriously. Statistically on the road Princeton has some solid number including shooting 41% from three, but over 70% of their shots will come from inside. Columbia is ranked 120th in 2 point defense, but they are worse at home and over their last 3 are allowing opponents to shoot 57.4%. Princeton has been solid over the years especially after a loss. They are 22-6 ATS following an ATS loss, 21-7 ats L28 foll a SU loss. 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 Friday nights.

Oregon State +1.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Oregon State seeks revenge coming off a loss where they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss. Stanford beat them the first time, but I have a feeling this game could be different as Stanford shot 56% from three at home in that game. Stanford shoots well on the season, but could struggle on the road where Oregon State is defending the perimeter (32.5%) a lot better. Oregon State is also + in FTA rebound margin and even turnovers. So I expect them to turn that around in this game. Stanford shoots just 41.1% overall from the field on the road and could have major issues scoring if they can not hit the three. Stanford is also looking ahead to their road game at Oregon on Saturday. Look ahead could be part of the reason why they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 Thursday games.

Texas Tech +10 4.4* NCAAB POD
This is a great spot for Tech in my opinion Oklahoma is just 4-5 on the road yet they already beat Tech handily at home and won't be looking seriously at this game. Meanwhile they just lost to their rival in OT and have Baylor up next. This is an interesting sandwich game for them that they will not take seriously. Tech on the other hand tend to stay around in games and in the first match up they were -13 FTA and -5 TO two things that will chagne in this game. Texas Tech biggest reason for not winning more at home has been their ability to defend the three pointer. Luckily for them they face a team that does not bother attempting much from there just 23% of their shots will come from three and whent hey do take them they don't make them only 29%. The fact that Tech does not turn the ball over much will make this a close game throughout in my opinion. Oklahoma is also just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Evansville +1 2.2* bonus
Another interesting spot for the road team. Illinois State won already against Illinois State, but they come into this game after losing against Wichita State by just 1 point at home. Major hang over spot here as they face a team they already beat. They also have a non conference bracket buster game up next vs. Utah State. Evansville was -18 FTA int he first match up and still only lost the game by 5 as a +7 dog. There is a reason they are 12-3 at home. Illinois State could have major issues turning the ball over in this game too. Illinois State just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at Evansville who almost beat Creighton here in their last game.

Boston College +1.5 5.5* NCAAB POD Maryland comes off a huge victory over Duke at home and there are ton of distractions despite what their fans did after the game. Right now this team is due for a huge hang over in this game against a BC team that has done some good things. For one they already nearly beat Miami and Duke losing by just 1 point in both of those games. Maryland already beat BC at home by 5 points and BC played poorly in that game shooting just 35% from the field and even worse 58% form the FT line. That won't happen at home I expect Ryan Anderson to also have a better game. Maryland on the other hand turns the ball over 15.5 times on the road and rarely force any turnovers. They won't shoot 42% from three like they did in game 1 as they are shooting just 29% from three on the road. I was very impressed with the way BC played defense against Duke in their last home game and I think they can duplicate that here tonight and get a big win.

Bucknell +2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Both teams are 8-2 in conference play and when you look at Bucknell is the better team. They did lose this match up at home as a 7 point favorite, but Lehigh shot 10 for 18 from three point range. I don't see that happening here today as Bucknell is not only 4th in 2 point defense in the nation, but on the road they defend the perimeter really well allowing 29.6%. Lehigh just 214th in 2 point defense and they are also 282nd in total rebounding% where Bucknell is 24th in rebound %. With revenge on Bucknell's mind I expect them to win this game outright.

Clemson +6 4.4* NCAAB POD
Clemson is a tough opponent on their own court and Miami will be in for a real test today. Clemson is ranked 31st int he nation in two point defense and Miami's offense really has not been tested on the road until today. If you recall this is a team that struggled on the road against Boston College. Clemson really needs this victory for any hopes at a post season and facing the #3 team in the nation is something to be excited for the home crowd. I also like that this game is on a Sunday and that Miami has Virginia up next which is more of a serious game for the Hurricanes being that Virginia is 3rd in the ACC. I see Clemson being able to shock Miami today. While they may not win they are going to give Miami issues.

Nebraska +9.5 4.4* POD; Nebraska +425 1* bonus

This is an interesting spot for the Spartans who just beat their rival in Michigan in dominating fashion. Next they have Indiana back at home who they lost to earlier in the year. This is an odd spot for a road trip to play Nebraska a team they don't have any kind of rivalry with. Nebraska on the other hand is looking to be taken seriously in the league still and have revenge after they lost to Michigan State on the road by 10. The one thing Nebraska has going for them is their defense. They actually play better defense from a FG% perspective in conference play than Michigan State which is saying a lot. Nebraska at home is even better where they allow opponents to shoot just 39.3% compared to Michigan State's 44.5% on the road.

Nebraska won't allow Michigan State to get out in transition as they are only turning the ball over 9.9 times a game and only allowing opponents 49.9 FGA so I expect this game to be your typical Big Ten match up with Nebraska having a real shot in the end at pulling off the upset at home with Michigan State looking ahead to their big match up with Indiana.

Manhattan +2.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Iona beat Manhattan at home by 8 as 13 point favorites but really the only difference was Iona shooting 10-16 from three and being +11 in FTA and +6 in turnovers. Manhattan out rebounded them by 10 and shot 48.2% from the field. IN conference play these teams are literally identical as far as raw stats go. Manhattan will pick up their defense in this game and give Iona issues especially at home where they only allow opponents to shoot 26.7%. Iona who will chuck up 20+ three points nearly 40% of their shots is just 32% on the road. Different ball game here as Manhattan wins.

Colorado +2.5 5.5* NCAAB POD
Huge revenge game here for the Buffaloes and they are at home against a ranked team in the national spot light. They nearly beat Arizona on their own court, but a 3 that won it at the buzzer by Sabatino Chen was later called back because his finger was still on the ball as time expired. They ended up losing in OT and this happened after they led by 16 with 12:40 left and 8 with 1:35 left. Colorado plays better at home and Arizona could be in a little bit of a hang over spot after losing to Cal in shocking fashion. Playing at elevation is never easy and Arizona is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. PAC 12. I think we are getting a lot of value especially since Colorado is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a win % > .600.

Penn State +7.5 (2.2* bonus)
Nothing great separates these two teams and Penn state lost by just 2 on the road despite being -23 FTA and -9 rebounds and -4 TO. Those three things won

[b]Texas +1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Texas really needs this game to jump start their season at any hopes of any post season action. Iowa State is 2-6 on the road 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and already beat Texas at home by 20 points. Iowa State relies on the three a ton shooting 43.5% of their shots from their. At home against Texas they dominated shooting 11-26 from there. That won't happen again as Texas defense the perimeter better than most teams in the nation only allowing 22.3% from three at home and 28.2% in conference play. Overall they only allow teams to shoot a combined 31.9% from the field. Iowa State will have issues scoring here and they won't get to the FT line 14 more times than the Longhorns like they did at home. This is a revenge game for Texas and this is a team that has played really well at home at times nearly beating Kansas earlier this year.

Manh +8 4.4* pod

[b]BC +12 4.4* NCAAB POD BC +625 1* Bonus[/b]
Duke has their biggest rival up next in UNC and now they have to travel Sunday morning instead of Saturday night to play Boston College. BC should be ready for this game in a unique environment because of the blizzard that hit the Northeast. I expect a pretty energized crowd. BC is 2-7 in conference play but they are only losing by an average margin of 4.9 points. 43% of their shots come from three and Duke is clearly vulnerable on the road allowing opponents to shoot 37.3%. I can see BC getting hot at the right time here. Duke also relies on the three but on the road they shoot 30.7%.

Boston is 15-7-1 ATS following an ATS loss as they lost to Miami in Miami who had revenge. BC has been good at home they nearly beat Miami as +6 and NC State as +7. 12 points is a lot for Duke in this spot and if BC can get hot from three they could pull out a shocker.

Memphis +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I feel their is some good value here on Memphis. For one this is the best defensive team Southern Miss will play all year and that could be a problem. They are just 4-4 vs. teams ranked in the top 103 in the country in 2 point % defense. Memphis is 18th and 10th on the road in 2 point defense where most of Southern Miss shots come from. Even in their 4 wins vs. those top teams they never won by more than 4 points. Memphis in my opinion does not drop off on the road where they are 5-0 and they know this could decide the conference here today. Memphis should get to the line more as they have all year +8.7 FTA compared to Southern Miss -5.5 FTA. Southern Miss is also just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. the Conference USA.

Yale +1 3.3* NCAAB POD
I like Yale in this spot they are 16-7 ATS following an ATS loss while Penn is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a losing team. Penn is beat up by injuries and they'll have troubles tonight rebounding the ball with Fran Dougherty injured again. Dougherty was their one bright spot as they are 306th in rebounding %. Yale meanwhile is 133rd and has been rebounding even better in recent weeks with a 53.7% in their last 3 games. I see them winning this game tonight.

4.4* play

Wofford +8 5.5* NCAAB POD
Davidson getting a little too much credit here as they'll face off against the #1 scoring defense in the Southern Conference in Wofford. The fact that Davidson relies on the three so much and Wofford has allowed just a 26.2% at home makes me believe Wofford could have a shot to win this game. Wofford outscored Davidson in the second half on an earlier season meeting as they lost 56-63 at Davidson. A team that shoots a ton of threes on the road is not going to win rebound margin and that's where Wofford could win this game. They are also getting to the line more frequently than opponents and they don't turn the ball over. These are all recipes for pulling off the upset. Davidson is just 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games and Wofford is 12-4 ats in their last 16 home games. This is a hidden gem in the many games going on this Saturday

4.4* pod

TX San Antonio +8.5 4.4* NCAAB POD; TX San Antonio +355 1* play
Denver nearly shoots 50% of their shots from three and they are not very good at it on the road shooting just 30% beyond the arch. Now Texas San Antonio already lost by 25 at Denver, but this is a revenge game and a long way to travel for Denver. In that game Denver shot 53.1% from the field and 47% from three. That won't happen again tonight and if we look at the other stats TX San Antonio actually out rebounded them by 8 and were +14 in FT attempts. TX is playing better ball winning 3 ATS as big time dogs winning two outright. I would not be shocked to see them win the game tonight considering Denver will also lose the FTA and rebound margin here tonight.

DePaul 3.3* pod

Ole MIss -2.5 3.3** NCAAB POD
This game should be a tight one, but Miss has a lot to prove and show at home with the national spotlight against a young Kentucky team. Kentucky goes up against the best defense they have faced all year and they have struggled against the top 100 defensive teams they have faced. The Rebels are ranked 22nd in effective field goal % defense and Kentucky has struggled against Louisville 75th, Notre Dame 92nd, and Bama 93rd. I look for the same story line here as Miss is 5th in points per game on the season and has been a juggernaut at home. They should dominate free throw attempts and points as well as turnovers as Kentucky is 92nd in the nation in turning the ball over with a 20.3% of possessions on the road. Meanwhile Miss has been forcing 20+ at home and is ranked 14th with a 26.8% of opponent possessions ending in a TO. Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 and may not be ranked, but there is no way MIssissippi will be overlooking Kentucky who are the defending National Champions.

E. Wash -2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Both Portland State and Eastern Washington have been struggling to find wins, but Eastern Washington should get one tonight being that they are home. Eastern Washington shoots 43.5% of their shots from three point rangea nd it just happens that Portland State is terrible defending the triple ranked 335th and their are only 3 teams worse than they are at defending it on the road where they allow opponents to shoot 42.4%. Ironically Eastern Washingtons three wins at home have come against teams ranked in the bottom in effective FG % defense in Idaho State (282nd), Northern Arizona (324th), and Cal Fullerton (322nd) and Portland State is worse than all of them ranking 333rd. Eastern Washington has also proven they can play good defense in conference play holding opponents to 39.8% from the field. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and I expect them to be 8-1 after tonight.

Missouri State -1 5.5* NCAAB POD
Drake is just 2-4 on the road this year and lost by 12 on their own court earlier to Missouri State. Drake getting some extra credit here after beating ranked Creighton in their last game and I think there is potential for a major hang over here as they have allowed opponents to shoot 49% from the field and 40.7% form 3 in their road games. MIssouri State has played much better in conference play and is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the MIssouri Valley Conference while Drake is 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Auburn +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Great spot for Auburn at home on a Saturday night to pull a major upset against a very good and ranked Mississippi team. Ole Miss may be peaking ahead to Tuesday night when they'll host Kentucky followed by a big match up with Florida to follow. Ole Miss is struggling of late to score as they shot just 36.7% from the field on Thursday so I feel this team is very vulnerable right now. Auburn's ability to force turnovers at home get to the FT line more than opponents and win the rebound margin are all reasons why I'm confident you could even see Auburn pull the upset tonight. Auburn after all has won the last two meetings at home as an under dog and are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 Saturday games as well as 45-20-2 ATS in their last 67 vs. the SEC.

W. Carolina +8 2.2* bonus play
Davidson has never been a good road team partially because they rely on the three pointer way too much. Theya re 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. West Carolina lost to Elon in their last home game as a favorite and will look to redeem themselves. They play great defense from the perimeter ranking 55th in the country holding opponents to 30.6%. In conference plays these two teams are pretty close as West Carolina

Bradley +7.5 2.2* BONUS
I like Bradley in this spot against Evansville again both of these teams are very similar and neither one of them rebounds the ball well. 7.5 points is a lot of value especially since Evansville has not been a dominating home team allowing opponents to shoot better from the floor 46.2% than their % of 45.2. They also are only +.2 in rebound margin and Bradley can be efficient with the perimeter game shooting 40% from the field in conference play while Evansville has given up 40% in conference play from 3. That should be enough to allow Bradley to cover.

New Mexico State -1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Denver has the losing record on the road at 3-5 to New Mexicos 9-1 record at home. Denver has played better in conference play outscoring opponents by nearly 14 while New Mexico is at 4.1, but Denver relies too much on three pointers which does not transition well on the road. In fact they are shooting nearly 50% of their shot attempts from three point range thus they are one of the worst rebounding teams and they are going up against one of the best rebounding teams in New Mexico state ranked 7th best in home rebounding % while there are only 13 teams worse than Denver in rebounding % on the road. New Mexico St should dominate in the paint as Denver is ranked 143rd in 2point % defense. Until Denver proves they can shoot the ball from 3 on the road I

Alabama +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I really like Alabama here in this spot as Kentucky is now 1-6 ATS in their last 7 in conference play. You bet Alabama wants to defeat Kentucky who is a young team once again and now they are continuing to get too much credit in my opinion. They'll have to play a style of basketball they are not accustomed to as the Tide love to throw 4 guards on the court and go up tempo. Now Kentucky definitely has the talent and athleticism, but they did lose to Texas A&M a team that uses a similar approach at times. I also like Alabama's ability to win the turnover battle as they are +3 at home to Kentucky's -4 turnover margin at home. I believe Alabama's guards will out play Kentucky's for a quality win as a home dog.

Georgetown +6 3.3* NCAAB POD
Georgetown will have an advantage in the paint on Monday and Notre Dame is struggling right now. They lost consecutive games at home before winning on Saturday, but this is a team that looks lost when they don

Texas +9 4.4* NCAAB POD; Texas +340 1*bonus
Texas has a very talented back court that can lead them to victory here at home. Thus far they are winless in the Big 12 so they'd love to get that out of the way and what better time than against #4 ranked team in the country on national television. Kansas comes into this game very confident just blowing out Baylor 61-44 at home, but on the road they have not been nearly as good. Texas meanwhile has been one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and hold opponents under 30% shooting in their home games where they beat North Carolina handily as +4.5 under dogs. I think the Texas back court will be the difference today led by Sheldon McClllellan, Julien Lewis and Javan Felix, but they will win this game with defense.

***Bonus Play***
4 point teaser
Texas A&M +11.5 with Arizona State +11 3.3* play

3.3* TOP PLAY

3.3* NCAAB POD

Depaul +7 3.3* NCAAB POD
I like Depaul here being at home against Cincinnati whose offense has started to struggle in conference playing averaging over 11 points less than their season average in their last 7 games. In those 7 games they have only averaged 62.9 points and now they go on the road to play a Depaul team that has one of its best teams in recent years. The Blue Demons have averaged 75.3 points and have not scored less than 69 all season. They have a duo in Brandon Young and Cleveland Melvin. Depaul needs a big time conference win and the dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 match ups.

Citadel +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD Citadel will take on Samford who just came off a road victory as a +15 under dog. That was a huge win for a program that lost at home in the previous game to Chattanooga by 4 points the same team Citadel lost to in their last game by 5 so I feel comfortable with the 4.5 points we are getting here especially since Samford just came off a huge win. Citadel is also a better rebounding team as Samford is ranked 338th with a 43.6% total rebound rate. They have also shown the ability to shoot FT's better than Samford by a far margin as they are shooting 80% at home from the charity stripe. Meanwhile their biggest weakness is turnovers averaging 17.4 per game. A lot of that came against some stiff competition, but here today they face Samford's guards who are only forcing 10.5 turnovers per game and rank 224th in the nation in turnovers forced per possession at 19.3%.

3.3* pod

Memphis +2 3.3* pod

3.3* NCAAB POD

3.3* TOP PLAY ON S. UTAH +3

Arizona 3.3* POD

3.3* NCAAB POD

4.4* NCAAB POD

MTSU +2 3.3* NCAAB POD
This is an interesting match up and one that either team could win, but I'm taking the points even if Belmont is home here. MTSU won last year in shocking fashion, but this team is the real deal and they match up very well with Belmont who relies on their senior guards and three point attempts. They are 3rd in the nation in three points made, but 41% of their shots are from beyond the arch which is 29th in the country. It just so happens they face a team that is backed by strong defense from the guards. They are long and physical and have held opponents to 29.7% from three. My other favorite stat is rebound % and MTSU should have another significant advantage here as they are ranked 41st while Belmont is ranked 267th. Belmont also has a bigger game up ahead with Kansas on Saturday they could be peaking ahead to.

4.4* ncaab play of the day

Rutgers +1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Despite having one of their best players back in Momo Jones, Iona is not the same. They even are moving Momo to the point and I think that's going to take some time playing against some of the better teams this year. Jones had a great year last year playing off Scott Machado and this will be a bit different. Iona also has 9 new players this year and lost a ton of talent from last year's squad. Meanwhile Rutgers returns 4 starters and got a ton better when Wally Judge decided to transfer from Kansas State. Judge gives this Rutgers team balance as it solidifies their front court to go along side Miller and Johnson. This team should dominate on the boards tonight and they have capable perimeter players in Carter/Mack/Seagears. I think we are getting line value here as both of these teams have played St Peters and Rutgers did not look very good, but it was their first game of the year. Rutgers has an extra 4 days rest so if Iona decides to push it Rutgers should be able to keep up.

iowa St +3.5 (4.4* POD) Iowa State has a lot of veterans led by McGee and Clyborn their two leading scorers. Meanwhile Iowa has played well thus far but has got beaten by the "good teams." Iowa is also very very young and I don't see a huge advantage playing at home against an instate rival. I look for Iowa State to win this game out right tonight with their veteran leadership.

Manhattan -3.5 2.2* bonus

3.3*

Celtics -3.5 4.4* NBA POD
This is a nice spot for the Celtics despite not playing well. This is another team that seems to step up the competition when they need to. I think tonight is another opportunity to do that with the Nets coming in with a ton of hype. On the Nets side I think they are due for a huge hang over here after they beat the Knicks at home for the first time in their new building. That was huge in itself, but it took OT, and people outside NY do not realize how big of a deal that game was. It

NC State +6 2.2* play
At this point I feel Michigan is a bit over rated and NC State is a bit under rated which gives us good value on Tuesday with 6 points. NC State should stay in this game the entire way as they seem to match up well with Hardaway and the Wolverines. Michigan beat Kansas State in their last game giving them a little credit with the odds. Now they face an NC State team that runs a tricky offense under Coach Gottfried. It

3.3* POD

3.3* POD

3.3* POD

3.3* POD; UC DAVIS +175 1* BONUS

Lehigh +12 3.3* NCAAB POD
This team already went up against a big and athletic Baylor team on the road and now they

Kansas to me matches up extremely well with Kentucky to the point that A.) they are the best 2 point shooting team Kentucky has faced all year long and they are also one of the few teams that can match up on defense as Kansas is #1 in 2 point defense while Kentucky is #2. Kansas will try to muddy this game and keep Kentucky out of transition. If they do for at least 1 half they should be in striking distance the entire game. I think they have the athletes to match up with Kentucky on the defensive end and they have great size in both the front and back court that should give Kentucky some fits in this game if it turns into a half court game which I think Kansas will be able to do for a good portion of this game making the under another intriguing possibility on Monday night. Robinson/Withey in the front court should be able to keep Kentucky out of the paint compared to their normal averages.

4.4* play

UNC +2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
I was waiting on the Kendall Marshall official notice on whether or not he's playing or not, but still was playing UNC. I was hoping if he didn't play this would get up to 3.5 points, but with it still unknown I'll stay on UNC here at +3. Kansas won't have the advantage on the baseline this game and I think that's the key because UNC is #1 in the nation in rebound % and Kansas has played 2 other teams inside the top 25 vs. Davidson and Kentucky and they lost both of those games. Whitney/Robinson vs. Zeller/Henson is intriguing and I'll take Zeller/Henson over the other two. Harrisson Barnes won't struggle like he did Friday night and UNC will come out with a nice win.

Syracuse +3.5 (4.4*POD) Syracuse +145 1*; Syracuse+8.5/Florida +4 teaser 2.2*
I love Syracuse here and I think we are getting tons of value with the public and possibly some sharps moving the line a full point or more at some books. This is the first time Syracuse is an under dog and I expect them to be under dogs the rest of the way and I'll back them. This team is incredibly deep and I'm starting to view the Fab Melo loss as not that big of a deal.

If it weren't for Wisconsin hitting 14 3's Syracuse's offense was clicking and they would have won going away. Now they play Ohio State a team that lost to Wisconsin on their own court. I look what this Syracuse team is doing without Melo it seems they have come together a bit and their rebounding, a weakness in the regular season really was impressive in their last game. Though they were even in rebound margin CJ Fair ripped down some huge rebounds that he'll have to do again today and I think he will. Ohio State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 tournament games as a favorite .5 to 6.5. Syracuse is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a dog .5 to 3.5 and as mentioned this is the first time they are dogs this season. I have a hard time believing Melo is worth more than 3 points and I think we can figure this game would be pk or Syracuse favored by a couple if they never lost Melo.

Ohio +10.5 (4.4* POD)
To me I like Ohio in this spot as they are a defensively minded team that can shoot the three and has been red hot all tournament long from the perimeter. That is the recipe for upsets and they also catch a break with the Tar Heels losing their key player in Marshall. He's still listed as questionable with surgery on his right wrist "Not his ball handling hand." However, I don't think he's likely to play and if he does he won't nearly be the same. The Tarheels are an up tempo team that averages nearly 14 more FGA than Ohio is used to giving up. Without Marshall at 100% I see Ohio being able to stay in this game right through the buzzer. Ohio is only turning the ball over 9 times per game over their last 5 which should also lead this game to their style of play with minimal possessions this game is far too many points to be given a team that holds opponents under 50 FGA per game.

Syracuse -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* pod Florida +2 2.2* play
It

Wash St +7 4.4* POD
Marcus Capers leads a group of selfless players. The Senior nearly had a triple double a few games ago and has his team in position to have some revenge against the team that knocked them out of the PAC12 tournament after beating them twice during the regular season. Washington State won here before and I think they'll likely be in this game. Oregon State has faced two of the worst defenses in the nation over the last two games. Washington State has held this team to 69, 73, and 76 and that's just not enough for Oregon State to cover this spread because their defense just is not that good.

Washington State is 36th in FG% offense and won that battle in all three match ups this season. Overall they were +2 in rebounds, but have a slight disadvantage in rebounding. Oregon State though gave up 81 to TCU who was 185th in FG% offense and I'm sure Washington State should get over 70 points in this game. Which means a cover in my opinion as Washington State is 10-3 ATS this year when they score 70+ points. Oregon State is just 9-13-1 ATS when they score less than 85. I see this game being played in the 70's. If Washington State does not turn the ball over and they don't get killed on the boards this should be a very even game decided in the last 5 minutes.

Oregon+5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Only play today and I"m going with the red hot Oregon team that split the season series with Washington. Though they lost by 16 in their visit to Washington this year where they return yet again I believe they are a much different team. This is a team that's averaging 83.5 ppg over their last 10 games and they just scored 108 and 96 against two pretty good defensive teams. They have 3 guys that can put up 20+ on any night in Singler, Joseph and Sim and now they are getting production from the big boys in Aghaolu and Emory making them difficult to defend. Washington has also heated up but I don't view this as a 5 point spread. I think there is a lot of value to be had on Oregon in what should be a very close contest. For one I don't believe Washington can slow Oregon down and keep them under 70 points. Oregon just had an off day shooting in Washington 32.3% the last time but they were +10 in offensive rebounds. I think they enjoy that edge once again here but their shooting will continue to stay hot. Oregon is 15-4 ATS this year when they score 70+ and 17-3 overall. I think this game goes down to the wire and I won't be surprised to see Oregon win outright.

Norfolk St +14.5(4.4* POD);Norfolk +1025 1*; South Florida -2 3* play
Norfolk State surprised everyone with their shocking win over Missouri, a guard oriented team. They matched up with them athletically which was even more surprising to me. Once again they face a guard oriented offense that can shoot the three with Beal, Walker, Boynton and even Murphy. I think O'quinn and Young who are roughly the same size will cross each other out. The real advantage Florida has is Murphy at 6-10 he can shoot the three or take it to the rim, but 1 player isn't worth this kind of points. Boynton, Beal and Walker will all be out sized and will have a tough time shooting over Norfolk State which does not start a guy shorter than 6-5 and better yet they are all Sr's except for the 6-6 Williams. Florida relies on the three so much with 44.4% of their FGA coming from three that I think Norfolk has a real shot at the upset.

Wvirginia +1.5 (4.4* POD) One of the more interesting games between two of the top 15 rebounding teams in the nation. West Virginia plays physical basketball in one of the most physical conferences. While Gonzaga plays in a finesse conference int he Big West they are pretty tough themselves. However, I like how West Virginia matches up particularly with Kilicki 6'9 260 vs. Robert Sacre 7'0 260. I think it will be challenging for Sacre to score points and get rebounds with a big body in the paint that he's not used to. On the flip side I give West Virginia the edge at guard with Sr. Truck Bryant over Freshman Kevin Pangos. Bryant is the key if he can get hot in this game West Virginia will cruise. West Virginia though will win the rebounding margin in my opinion over their last 5 they were +9.2 on the offensive glass while Gonzaga was -2.4. They've gotten it done in a tougher college and their two best players are Seniors in Kevin Jones and Bryant. West Virginia has a lot to prove after they blew a lead against Uconn in the Big East Tournament. This game will be 75 miles away from West Virginia's campus while Gonzaga has to fly 2200 miles.

W-ILL +11.5 (4.4* POD) W-ILL +555 1* PLAY
Western Illinois is flying under the radar. They were 2-6 against the top teams in the Summit but lost by a combined 8 points and 3 were in OT. They took South Dakota State to the wire in OT losing by 2 in the Championship and that game was in South Dakota. They've won more road games this year since 96-97 team and they step up in these situations.

Western Illinois is an overall solid team. ORegon State will get frustrated with their slow paced game. They are one of the slowest teams in the nation and that's not a bad thing they are just very patient and I think they'll find success on the perimeter like they have all year long. This team is also 11th in personal fouls meaning Oregon State is not getting to the line 25+ times in this one like they are accustomed to. Western Ill is also 22nd in turnovers per game and Oregon State once again relies on steals and turnovers to score points. Western Illinois will turn this into a half court game and it will be close throughout. Western Illinois is a bit more excited to be in a post season tournament to me and the fact that this team beat Oral Roberts and on the road took Michigan to the wire losing 55-59 proves they can beat an Oregon State team and the value is there. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. a winning team. They step it up when it matters. Sr. Guard and Summit defensive player of the year Ceola Clark will have a game to remember.

LSU +7.5 (4.4* POD); LSU +305 1* BONUS
I love LSU here today as they played right with Kentucky in the SEC tournament teams which not many teams can claim having a lead on this year. LSU comes from a significantly stronger conference and Trent Johnson their head coach knows Oregon considering he coached at Stanford.

LSU has to be thirlled to be going to a post tournament conference for hte first time since 2009. They have struggled on the road, but I think their motto of defense and rebounding will result in good results. These teams are more even than many think and Vegas agreed once upon a time as well. LSU and Oregon have two common opponents. Both teams played home against Virginia and were 2.5 point under dogs. LSU was closer at winning losing by only 5. They also both played at Vanderbilt. Both had 15 and 14 point losses, but LSU was 11 point dogs to Oregon being 13.5 point dog. Vanderbilt had a hot shooting day, go figure but still lost by 14. They were -12 in turnover margin. IN the two games combined it's evident LSU to me is the better team and should be right in this game. I like the fact that they own the better defense.

Talking about defense Oregon is 185th in 2 point defense and LSU will shoot 73% of their shots from inside the arch. On the flip side LSU is 93rd in 2point defense giving them a significant edge in this game. It won't be easy scoring against an SEC team that has a strength of schedule of 53 compared to 93 of Oregon. LSU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games while Oregon is 0-5 ATS.

Vanderbilt +8 (4.4* NCAAB POD); Vanderbilt +280 2* bonus
We were on Vanderbilt twice in the regular season and came out 1-1 ATS when they faced the #1 team in Kentucky. A third meeting and I'm still on Vanderbilt here. I believe they are the more experienced team for one and in both of those games they had chances to win. Whether it was over coming a slow start down 13 at home to be leading by 4, 55-51 with 8 minutes to play or if it was when they led by 1 at half at Kentucky and were down 65-66 with 3 minutes to play. Either way Vanderbilt has been one of the few teams that have kept right with Kentucky.

Vanderbilt is a better version of Florida. Ezili is a bit better and more physical than Florida's Patric Young. Ezili not 100% healthy in the first match up was 5-10 for 15 points in the second. He'll have to be dominant in the paint to give Vanderbilt balance and the ability to shoot the three. Vanderbilt is actually ranked higher in 3PT% but they are more balanced than Florida. They have three shooters that are well over 40% from three in Jenkins, Taylor, and Tinsley. All experienced veterans who want to leave their mark at Vanderbilt who is playing in it's first SEC Championship since 1951. Kentucky on the other hand an arrogant bunch full of freshmen and sophmores and a coach that has already made it clear that this tournament means nothing that it is about the NCAA Tournament. Playing their 3rd game in 3 days is going to be a challenge for Kentucky that does not go as deep as Vanderbilt off it's bench. All 5 starters played 30 minutes+. Out of a possible 200 minutes of playing time the Kentucky starters played 180 of them Friday and 179 yesterday. Vanderbilt went 14 deep against Georgia without a starter playing more than 30 minutes and 10 deep yesterday in their win vs. Ole Miss. They will without a doubt be a lot fresher than Kentucky and have the motivation to revenge 2 losses during the regular season.

Florida +9 (4.4* NCAAB POD); FL +375 1*); Wisconsin +165 2* bonus play
Three times a charm. That's the theme of this play of the day. It's no secret how you beat Kentucky. Shoot effectively from three point range. Florida is ranked 21st in the country in 3 point shooting but shot just 24.4% in the two losses to Kentucky this year. Florida takes their share of 3 pointers ranked #3 in the nation in attempts. Don't be surprised to see them take more than their average of 24.3 here today. Boynton and Walker the two guard leaders really have to step up in this match up and hit open shots. Florida has other three point shooters so if they move the ball and get open looks I have a feeling they could get up big on Kentucky.

I'm really not sure where Kentucky's motivation is in this tournament with their coach saying, "Their should be no conference tournaments." I think Kentucky has really disrespected the conference and the fans and their arrogance this team has taken on I think is really going to hurt them at some point. Florida already feels disrespected in the last match up and unfortunately they could not do anything about it , but like I said third time is a charm. They have the make up that could upset Kentucky. Patric Young has been a vocal leader and was a combined 15-25 from the field going up against Freshmen sensation Anthony Davis. He seems to have a better idea than anyone on how to score in an effective way. I expect a better shooting day from this team and I don't expect Kentucky to light it up like they did in the two regular season match ups. This one should go down to the wire.

St. Joes -1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Saint Joes was coming off a huge win at home over the A10

Georgetown -2.5 (5.5* MAX POD)
Georgetown has lost 3 in a row now to Cinci and the last one came at home under extraordinary circumstances in the fact that the Hoyas came off an emotional lost 1 day prior to West Virginia.

Uconn -1.5 -120 buy 1/2 (4.5* NCAAB POD)
I've lost money on West Virginia before and even when they needed a win the most and were handed gifts like 3 starters suspended for a first half from Marquette they still could not put it together. Now West Virginia has talent and they will give Uconn a run for their money specifically because of two things. Offensive rebounds and FT's. Uconn has been awful from the line and West Virginia is one of the better offensive rebounding teams.

However, I think Uconn can over come both. They seem like they are about to get on a run much like last year. This team has plenty of talent compared to last year and many think they have more with Drummond at Center. The experience is there with Lamb Oriaki, Roscoe Smith and Napier from last years team and actually the return of Jim Calhoun has done wonders. Don't think it's a big deal he inserted Napier as the starter and you see other players getting key playing time. Uconn unlike years past can shoot the ball from the perimeter and yesterday shot 8-13 for 61.5%. West Virginia is not having the best year defensively despite their last game against South Florida. This team has allowed 45.9% in their last 5 and 48.2% on the road this year. Their offense is not good enough to over come that. First and foremost they go up against Uconn the Big East's #1 2point FG% defense. They lack an inside scoring presense in my opinion and will have to get points from the perimeter. There is a reason why this team took 7 more attempts from 3 than they usually do when these two met earlier in the year. West Virginia however has shot 30.7% from three. This falls into Uconn's hands in my opinion and is simply just a bad match up for West Virginia.

As far as FT's go Uconn is only letting opponents get there 15 times per game so I don't think it plays a critical role. I think Boatright makes some key three's in the second half. He's shooting 42.4% from the perimeter and is somewhat of an unknown by most. Drummond will avoid getting to the foul line and Uconn will move on.

North Texas -2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Despite revenge I do not think Western Kentucky can win this game. Their offense or defense is not good enough despite shooting 56% last night from the field in their upset of Denver. Denver was 200th in the nation in FG% defense and North Texas is 74th and when these teams met the first time Western Kentucky shot just 34.6%. While they'll likely shoot better I don't think they can over come all the other advantages the Mean Green have in this game.

Western Kentucky is just not a good shooting team to begin with 39.3% on the road and 39.5% overall. Both teams shoot more than 65% two pointers and do not rely on the three ball. North Texas is 83rd in 2 point defense while Western Kentucky is 116th. Pretty close but the difference is on offense and North Texas is ranked 217th to Western Kentucky's 302nd 2point offense. They are also much more capable shooting the three and even defending it as Western Kentucky is 306th in 3point % defense. What I like the best in this match up is North Texas is 69th in rebound % to Western Kentucky's 189th and Western Kentucky is shooting just 41.1% from 2 point range on the road. Meaning they will shoot worse than that for the game. If North Texas can win the rebound margin once again and get to the FT line more which I believe they will they should win this game by 10. I also like the fact that my formulas agree with North Texas.

S.UTAH +12 (4.4* NCAAB POD) SUTAH +6 1h 2.2* play; VCU -2.5 (2.2* BONUS); I like Southern Utah here after just knocking off perenial Summit winners Oakland in a shocker they have all the confidence in the world. S.Dakota is technically home in this one, but Southern Utah has the ability to score when needed their biggest downfall in this match up is the ability to get to the FT line. They were -18 and -19 during the two regular season games but still only lost by 10 and 7 points. Having double revenge and almost no pressure on them I see them playing this game a lot closer. Both games were close at half time 3 points and 1 point differences so we'll be playing the 1st half as well for a 2.2* bonus.

4.4* NCAAB POD

Tulane -3 (3.3* play) I like Tulane here as East Carolina just came off a big home emotional win in OT over Marshall by 1 point. Now they go on the road to play Tulane for the first time and East Carolina has been just awful on the road and it's because of their defense allowing 47.1% on the road. Tulane on the other hand is allowing 40.7% and East Carolina has an offense that often struggles. Now Tulane will also have the advantage as far as getting to the FT line and 2nd chance opportunities as they are +8 FTA and +2.6 rebound margin at home compared to East Carolina's -1.6 and -6.2 rebound margin. Tulane also can pressure defense and after their recent game they'll want to make up for it plenty. They force 15.2 TO/game and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss of 20+. Butler -1 (3.3* play) We were on this play large last time and isn't it ironic that these two meet again. Valpo won both regular season battles but it won't matter in the end when Butler takes this game. Butler has played two times since scoring over 70 in both and getting their confidence back while Valpo hasn't played as they had a bye in the tournament and are hosting this game once again. Butler still has Sr leadership in Guard Nored and a couple of players from last years roster. I think the way they lost here last time will allow them to come in and play a bit less tense. They got off to a terrible start and that won't happen again. As I said in the first match up it's a bad match up for Valpo because Butler has the best defense once again in the Horizon and are a real threat and Vegas certainly agrees making them favorites on the road against the conferences #1 seed.

Missouri St -2 5.5* NCAAB POD
Evansville beat Missouri State twice in the regular season and what I like about this match up is that it is fresh in the minds of Missouri State who ended the year on a 4 game losing streak, but they did play the top tier teams in the MVC.

Idaho +3 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Idaho has an extra day of rest before they had to travel to Hawaii where they will get their third shot at revenge this season they are 2-0 on revenge games beating both Nevada (road win) and New Mexico State at home.

Dayton +2 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Still a live for a top 4 seed in the A-10 conference which will get them a bye with the rest of the teams.

Youngstown State -2.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
This will be the third time these two meet this season with the season series split on home and away.

South Florida -2 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
South Florida is not getting any respect in my opinion because of their SOS out of conference play, but very quietly they are among the best in the Big East and we can see them make a statement Sunday and in their remaining 2 games of the season as they close against three quality teams. At home vs. Cinci is their most winnable game in my opinion and I think they match up well with Cinci who is also 10-5 in conference play but a closer look and we see who the better team is.

These stats are just their conference numbers and for what it's worth South Florida is that much better at home. Don't think these stats matter? USF just was on the road at Syracuse and held a double digit lead and they also held the Orange to just 56 points. They have hte Big East #2 scoring defense and they are #4 in FG% defense while Cinci is 9th in FG% defense in Big East play. The bigger surprises is the offense which is ranked 3rd in FG% offense because they don't take a lot of three pointers. This is a very balanced and unselfish team. They are also #2 in FT% at .738 while Cinci is dead last at .648 and they are also last in FG% offense. South Florida will have to defend the perimeter, but they should have no issues with that either.

Lastly emotionally Cinci has a feeling of accomplishment beating Louisville at home their last time out. Everyone is giving them high fives and sending them to the NCAA tournament. South Florida is the team that feels disrespected. We already know the character issues that Cinci has so I think this is hard spot for them especially since they may be looking ahead to their home battle with Marquette who they desperately want revenge on from their earlier loss. Cinci is just 5-27 ATS in their last 32 Sundays while South Florida is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. I think South Florida takes this game by double digits.

Connecticut +5 (5.5* NCAAB POD)
Syracuse recently beat Uconn 85-67 at home, but the game was much closer as it was 63-61 with about 6 minutes remaining before Syracuse closed out the game on a 22-6 run. Syracuse uncharacteristically shot 62.5% from three and 59.3% overall. That will not happen again. The Huskies allow just 35% from the field in home games this season and this game will be at Gampbel Pavilion on campus where they rarely play big games like this. Syracuse has never won. Normally Uconn plays off campus at a bigger arena in Hartford. However, it's more of an advantage and more excitement when this team plays on campus. I expect them to be pumped up in this game and defense will be the key to their success.

Uconn is actually 4th in the nation in 2 point defense which is the key since a huge % of Syracuses points come from inside the arch. They are even better at home allowing 37.3% from inside the arch which is actually #1 even better than Louisville who are ranked #3 overall in 2point defense. I bring up Louisville because Syracuse went on the road to Louisville and they won by 1 point 52-51 and the only reason they won was because Louisville went 12 from 21 from the FT line. Uconn much like Louisville will have a rebound advantage because of the style Syracuse plays. Uconn is a better rebounding team statistically overall and on their own court with a +8.2 rebound margin.

Lastly in that game Jeremy Lamb shot just 2-10 from three point range. I expect him to have a better game as he built a ton of momentum on the road vs. Nova with his career high. The entire team has momentum right now and this is the exact type of match up Syracuse does not want to see. Between Andre Drummond who is a top 5 pick when he decides to go to the NBA and the other bigs including Alex Oriakhi and Tyler Olander, and Roscoe Smith, Uconn has just as much length as Syracuse.

Butler +1 (3.3* Early Prime Time)
Butler lost very early in the season in OT at home to Valpo.