Milwaukee Bucks vs Utah Jazz 
8-Unit best bet on the Bucks minus the 9 points 
 

Betting on road favorites coming off a 20 or more-point win and facing a foe that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has produced a 92-28 SU record and 76-42-2 ATS mark good for 64.4% winning bets since 2015. If the foe has scored and allowed 105 or more points in each of their last three games, the record improves to 37-18 ATS for 67% winning bets. If the total is priced at 230 or more points, our favorites have gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets.  

Portland Trail Blazers vs Utah Jazz 
8-Unit best bet on the Trail Blazers plus the 5 points 

Check out this amazing betting algorithm that has earned a highly profitable 33-6 ATS record for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons. This algorithm has gone 4-1 ATS this season, 17-2 ATS in 2021-22 season, 7-2 ATS in the 2020-21 season, 1-0 ATS in the 2019-20 season, and 4-1 ATS in the 2018-19 season. One of the main reasons this system has done so well relates directly to the steady increase in NBA scoring over the past five seasons.  
 

Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers minus the points, currently at 3.5 points. 
Betting on road favorites that lost the previous meeting against the current opponent and are coming off a hoe loss, playing with one day of rest exact has earned a 45-24 ATS record for 65.2% winning bets since 2015. If the previous loss is the same opponent (home-away) then the record soars to 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If the game takes place after the all-star break, the record is 18-7 ATS for 72% winning bets. If our bet is a favorite of no more than 6.5 points they have gone 15-5 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. 
 
The Bulls are just 4-13-1 ATS when facing a top-rated opponent that has won between 60 and 80% of their games with the game taking place in the second half of the season.  
 

Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies 
8-Unit best bet on the Rockets plus the 13.5 points 
Betting on road teams that lost their last meeting to the current opponent and are coming off a double-digit home loss have earned a 106-64-2 ATS record good for 62.4% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our game is taking place after the all-star break the record improves to 48-24-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2018. If our dog has won 30% or fewer of their games on the season, the record moves higher to 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets 

San Antonio Spurs vs Milwaukee Bucks  
8-Unit best bet on the Bucks –17.5 points 
Betting on home favorites playing on two or more days of rest, coming off a win in which 40% or more of their points came from made 3-pointers, and hosting a foe that is playing on back-to-back nights has earned a 24-11 ATS record good for 69% winning bets. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record soars to 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets.  
 

Denver Nuggets vs Washington Wizards 
8-Unit best bet on the Nuggets minus 7 points. 
Bettig on favorites between 3.5 and 7.5 points, has seen their last three games play Under by a combined total of 30 or more points, and the game is taking place in the second half of the season has earned a 125-73-6 ATS record for 63% wining bets over the past five seasons. Drilling down a bit further, if the total is 225 or more points and our team is playing on at least one day of rest, the record becomes quite impressive at 48-23-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. 

Tuesday March 21, 2023 
Pistons vs Hawks 
8-Unit best bet on Pistons plus the points, currently 12.5 

Betting on road teams, who lost the previous meeting to the current opponent and are coming off a double-digit home loss have gone 73-101 SU (42%) and 108-64-2 ATS (63%) since 2018 (last five seasons). If the game is taking place after the all-star break, the record improves to 48-23-1 for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. The P-Value for this set of parameters is outstanding at 0.000062. The closer the P-Value gets to absolute zero the stronger the correlation the listed parameters relate to ATS wins.  

Cleveland vs Brooklyn 
8-Unit bet on the OVERR, currently priced at 218.5 points 
     Bet OVER the total in games played in March and when the total is between 215 and 225 points, with a home team priced as 7 or fewer point underdog, who has gone Under the total of 30 or more points spanning their last three games has earned a 16-6 Over mark for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. Keep in mind that NBA scoring started increasing in a linear trend back in 2017, so there are few totals this high prior to 2017. 
     Brooklyn is 23-8 Over when the total has been between 210 and 219.5 points in games played over the past two seasons.  
 

Washington vs Orlando 
8-Unit bet on the Washington Wizards 

The Wizards are 33-14 ATS in road games following back-to-back games in which they trailed by double digits at the half. The Magic are just 5-14 ATS in home games when coming off a road game in which they shot 42% or worse from the field over the past five seasons. Wizards are 14-7 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three or fewer of their last 10 games and allowed 50% or higher shooting in their previous game spanning the past five seasons.  

Celtics vs Timberwolves 

10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Celtics minus the points, currently at –5 points. 

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are outscoring their foes by at least 3 PPG and facing a host that was leading by 20 or more points at the half of their previous game has earned a highly profitable 45-15 ATS record for 75% winning bets since 2004. This betting system is one of the best ones you will ever find as the parameters have a very strong P-Value (JR-Value) of .000067 and the close a P-Value gets to absolute zero the stronger the correlation of the game-dependent parameters becomes. 
From the predictive model, the Celtics are 56-10 SU and 51-15 ATS when scoring 117 or more-points and making 80% or more of their shots from the charity stripe in games played over the past three seasons. 
 

Houston vs Indiana 
8-Unit best bet on the Houston Rockets plus the 9.5 points and add just a sprinkle to the money line. An alternative betting strategy is keeping the money line bet and use it to bet in game. The current money line is +350 and looking to get +400 in the first quarter or bet the line at +14.5 or more is solid. 

Betting on underdogs that lost the last time the two teams met and shot 40% or lower in that loss and is coming off a home loss by 20 or more points has earned a 24-23 record and 31-16 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team is a dog from pick to +10, the record improves to 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets. 

From the predictive mode, we learn that the Rockets are 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in games in which they scored 111 or more points and got at least 50 rebounds in games played over the past three seasons. 

Philadelphia vs Indiana 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers –6.5 points 

The Pacers held off the Chicago Bulls to earn a 125-122 road win Sunday. Haliburton scored a game-high 29 points and 11assists for the Pacers, who have won four of their last six games, covering five of them against-the-spread (ATS). They defeated the Bulls despite allowing 60.8% shooting and now find themselves playing on back-to-back nights.  

The 76ers were down 18 points in the second half and roared back with a dominant 48-41 edge in the fourth quarter to bring a halt to the Bucks 16-game win streak. 

Betting on road favorites of at least 3.5 points that allowed 50% opponent shooting in each of their least past two games and facing a foe coming off a win by three or fewer points has earned 6-1 SU and ATS record for 86% winning bets since 2017. 76ers allowed 57.7% shooting in a 133-126 loss at Dallas and then most recently allowed 50% shooting in their 133-130 win over the Bucks. 

The 76ers are 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS (67%) winning bets when playing with more days of rest than the opponent, coming off a road win and now priced as a road favorite. Home dogs of at least 6 points, like the Pacers, that have lost four consecutive games against the current opponent, playing on back-to-back nights after the all-star break, with that foe winning at least 60% of their games in the current season have gone just 17-33-2 ATS for 33%. 

Brooklyn Nets hosting the Milwaukee Bucks

8 unit best bet on the net plus the points.

Since the trade that sent All Star Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns the Nets have had time to rebuild their lineup which has the potential to play much better down the stretch. The bucks have won fourteen consecutive games and are now at 43 wins and 17 losses for the season. He had come from behind to get the last win against the Phoenix Suns at home price says 2 1/2 point favorites in a game in which they shot just 43.7% from the field and were outrebounded 55-45 in the game. 

The predictive model sees Brooklyn having a great shot to win the game and end the 14 game win streak of the bucks tonight at the Barclay center. The Nets are expected to shoot better than 48% from the field tonight and that is certainly good news. Milwaukee over the last three seasons is just 20-45 against the spread when allowing 48% or higher shooting. The Nets are also 66-30 against the spread in games in which they score 115 or more points. Bet the Nets.

Suns vs Bucks
8-Unit best bet on the Suns plus the 3.5 points.

5-Unit Over the total (optional)

Suns are 5-1 ATS in road games with a total of 230 or more points this season. 16-3 Over in this situation since 2020. 

From the predictive model, we are looking for the Suns to score at least 115 points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. They currently have the fourth best in the NBA for the 2022 season, a 1.92. In past road games in which the Suns met or exceeded these performance measures have seen them go 35-5 SU and 29-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past three seasons. Milwaukee ranks a distant 25th with a 1.656 assist-to-turnover ratio. So, we re going with the much better ball-handling team in a short-lined game – meaning priced between the 3’s.

Over the last two seasons, the Phoenix Suns are 35-20 against the spread when facing a strong passing team that averages 23 or more assists per game and games played in the second half of the season spanning the last two seasons. 

Milwaukee Bucks vs LA Lakers 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Bucks minus the points, currently priced at -6 

Betting on road favorites of between 3.5 and 9.5 points in the month of February, has a win percentage between 60 and 75% and taking on a foe that that has won 40 to 50% of their games has earned a 41-10-1 ATS record for 80.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This betting algorithm has never had a losing season and that is pretty good – no, pretty damn good.  

LA Clippers vs Brooklyn Nets 

4% 8-Unit bet Under the posted total currently priced at 221 points. 
 
This is one of the more advanced NBA algorithms in my database of over 1,500 algorithms and has produced a 78-44 Under record for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet the Under in games where the total is 2.5% lower than the average points scored by the road team in road games added to the average points scored in home game by the home team, with the home team seeing 50% or more Under bets cashing on the season, and with the road team having lost a same season game by 10 or more points in their last meeting against the host.  

The Nets are 15-5 Under in home games and coming off a home win in games played over the past two seasons. 

Kyrie Irving is now a Dallas Maverick and didn't play Saturday night, with the team citing calf soreness. With Irving off the roster and Kevin Durant missing a 12th straight game due to a sprained right medial collateral ligament, the Nets stormed back for a wild 125-123 victory over the Washington Wizards. The Nets pulled off the comeback with only eight players available as Ben Simmons (sore left knee) and T.J. Warren (left shin contusion) did not play and Seth Curry (left adductor) and Morris (sore left knee) were injured during the game as the Nets allowed 73 points by halftime. Cam Thomas scored a career-high 44 points on 16-of-23 shooting while playing 29 minutes.  

Nets are in a regression situation on the offensive end. Clippers have blown huge leads in each of their last two games and Kawhi Leonard made note of the need to play better defense in his press meeting.  

Charlotte vs Chicago 
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chicago Bulls minus the points, currently priced as 6-point home favorites. 
 
Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have played Under the total by 30 or more points spanning their last three games, has a win percentage between 40 to 49% om the season and facing a losing record team has earned an outstanding 35-9-3 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards 
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Wizards minus 4-points 
 
Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have played Under the total by 30 or more points spanning their last three games, has a win percentage between 40 to 49% om the season and facing a losing record team has earned an outstanding 35-9-3 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. Same system as the one supporting the bet on the Bulls. 
 
 

New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwauke Bucks 
8 ET 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans plus the points, currently +9.5 points 

Betting on a winning record road team that lost the previous meeting to the current opponent and is coming off a dreadful double-digit home loss has earned an outstanding 25-19 SU record and 32-12 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. Since 2015, this algorithm has been profitable in every season and has produced a 54-23-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. 

Here is another algorithm that has gone 32-5-1 ATS for 87% winners over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the number by 50 or more points spanning their previous seven games, and now facing a foe that has seen their last seven games play Over the total by a combined 50 points. The Pelicans have lost to the spread by 60.5 points over their last seven games while the Bucks have played over the total by a whopping 100 points spanning their last seven games.  

From the predictive playbook, the Pelicans are 23-9-1 ATS (72%) when scoring 111 or more points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio than the opponent in road games played since 2018.  

Houston Rockets vs LA lakers 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Rockets plus the points 
Consider a money line round parlay with these three dogs using pizza money-sized bets.  

The Lakers coming off a physically and emotionally draining 1113-112 loss to the 76ers last night and now must turn around on back-to-back days to host the Rockets. Betting on road teams, who have lost their last 3 road games of the current road trip and playing on back-to-back nights (Rockets) has earned a highly profitable 51-18-2 ATS for % winning bets since 2016. If the host is coming off a home loss priced as an underdog, our road team improves to 16-5-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 5 seasons.  

Here. is a second algorithm that has earned an outstanding 37-14 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. 
Bet on road teams that are allowing at least 114 PPG and are coming off back-to-back blowout losses of 15 or more points. If the matchup involves two losing record teams, the road team improves to 19-6 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

New Orleans Pelicans vs Cleveland Cavaliers 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans plus the points 

Betting on road dogs with same-season revenge from a previous loss of three or fewer points in the same season and with that foe coming off a loss priced as the favorite has earned a 40-17 ATS record for 70% winning bets since 2016. If the matchup involves two winning record teams, our road dog improves to a near-perfect 7-1 ATS for 88%.  

Toronto Raptors vs NY Knicks 

4% 8-unit bets bet on the Raptors plus the points 

Bet on road teams that are avenging a same-season loss against the current opponent, is coming off a horrid double-digit home loss has earned a 157-93-3 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2016. If the host is playing on back-to-back nights, the road team improves to a highly profitable 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2016.  

After having won three straight and ATS, the Raptors lost at home 114-103 to the Atlanta Hawks priced as a 7-point favorite. The Knicks are on a 3-game win streak and covered the spread in each of them. On Sunday, they defeated the lowly Detroit Pistons 117-104 and covered the spread as 8.5-point favorites. The Knicks are just 9-20-1 ATS in home games and coming off a win and 3-9 ATS in home games coming off two consecutive wins in games played over the past two seasons.  

Boston vs Brooklyn 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Nets plus the 2-points 

Consider betting 60% of your normal bet size pre-flop and then add 40% in-game at Nets +6.5 full game during the first half of action only.  

Durant will be out for at least two weeks with a sprained right knee after an MRI exam on Monday revealed an isolated sprain in his medial collateral ligament. Durant was injured in the third quarter when he collided with Miami's Jimmy Butler before the Nets concluded a three-game road trip with a 102-101 victory on Sunday. "No excuses," Brooklyn coach Jacque Vaughn said at practice Wednesday. "That's the biggest thing for this group. To (be in) the position last year where we were, I just say no excuses. 

Boston has had 4.2 percent of its shot attempts blocked this season while Brooklyn's rate is at 4.5, the two lowest percentages in the league. On the other end, both teams rank among the NBA's best in blocks per game -- the Nets are in first (6.98) and the Celtics fourth (5.40). 

Betting on home teams in a divisional matchup with both teams winning between 60 and 75% of their games and with the guest playing on back-to-back nights has gone 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

Memphis vs Orlando 

5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points 

Betting on road favorites coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that they and their respective opponents have scored 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned an 85-27 SU (76%) record and 71-39-2 ATS (65%) winning bets since 2015. If the foe is playing on B2B nights, our road favorite has gone 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. If the host has a win percentage of less than 40% on the season and is playing on no more than a day of rest, our favorites have gone 35-15 ATS for 70% winning bets.  

The Memphis Grizzlies seek their fifth consecutive win and second in as many nights, playing the second leg of a road back-to-back on Thursday when they visit the Orlando Magic. 

Memphis won its fourth straight contest on Wednesday, 131-107 over the Charlotte Hornets, behind a balanced scoring attack. Nine Grizzlies finished with at least eight points, paced by Ja Morant's 23 points. No Memphis player was in the game for more than 28 minutes and 10 players played for at least 14 minutes. So, playing on back-to-back nights is not going to be a factor tonight.  

New Orleans vs OKC

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans

Betting on a team (Pelicans) in a game lined between the 3’s facing an opponent that is coming off a home win of three or fewer points, has won between 40 and 49% of their games on the season, and has one or more fewer days of rest between games has gone 22-11-3 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

C.J. McCollum struggled in his return from COVID-19 in early December, but has found his stride recently. In his past five games, McCollum is averaging 31.5 points, 7.5 assists and six rebounds while shooting 49.5 percent from the field. Last night he scored a season-high 40 points on 14-of-27 shooting, contributing seven 3-pointers, nine assists and eight rebounds. McCollum scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to help the Pelicans snap a four-game losing streak. So, I am looking for this hot streak to continue tonight against the Thunder and even more so that Zion Williamson has entered the COVID-19 protocol. 

Pelicans are 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets when facing a losing record team that is allowing 46 or higher shooting in games played over the past two seasons.

Milwaukee vs Brooklyn 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Nets minus the points or the money line if not priced more than -165. If you use the money line consider reducing the units to 5 or 5.5 units given that you are then risking about an 8-unit amount.

Betting on home favorites that are revenging a double-digit loss to the current opponent and is coming off a home blowout win of 20 or more points has gone 23-2 SU for 92% winning bets on the money line. If a home favorite of not more than 3.5 points has produced an 8-2 SU record and 7-3 ATS mark for 70% winners.

Toronto vs Cleveland 

4% 8-Unit best bet on Cleveland minus the points

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a foe that they have lost the last two meetings against, and with that opponent coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an 85-20 SU record and 62-37-6 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 27 seasons. If a home favorite in this situation produced a 61-14 SU mark and 47-25-3 ATS for 65.3% winning bets; 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Hornets vs Clippers

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Hornets plus the points

Betting on road dogs from game number 15 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off a road win and has won 25 to 40% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team has earned an 88-42-5 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

Mavericks vs Timberwolves

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Mavericks minus the points

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and facing a foe that they lost to in the most recent meeting and that foe scored at least 100 points and that host is coming off a home win in which they scored 115 or more points has earned a 44-19-3 ATS record good for 70% winning bets.

Bet the Mavericks

Trail Blazers vs Thunder

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Trailblazers minus the points.

The same betting system that is active for the bet on the Mavericks is also active for this bet on the Portland Trail Blazers. 

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets

5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Heat minus the points

Despite being the youngest team in the Association, the Rockets are coming off two tenacious defensive efforts holding the Bucks to just 36% shooting and the Suns to 32% shooting, which was the worst the Suns have shot since October 18, 2017. The Heat are playing without their leading scorer Jimmy Butler, but Tyler Herro matched a career high with 35 points including nine made 3-pointers. The Heat got off to a horrid start, but not find themselves just one-game under .500 and are playing great team basketball right now. Despite Herros 35-point effort, the Heat had six players score in double figures.  

This is the third game of a four-game road trip for the Heat, who are also playing on back-to-back nights. They won back-t-back road games for the first time this season and with the very weak San Antonio Spurs on deck, they know they can win all four games. 

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points and facing as team that had 13 more turnovers than their opponent in their previous game has earned a 76-27-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 18-7 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team is playing on back-to-back nights, the record soars to a highly profitable 14-3 ATS record good for 82% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 7-1 ATS 88% since 2015.

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Denver Nuggets

Betting on road favorites, playing with same season revenge and coming off a home loss, and not playing on back-to-back nights has earned a 52-19 SU record good for 73% winners and 49-22 ATS good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team is not playing on B2B nights and the host has MORE rest, our team has gone 56-24 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2015. This system is11-3 ATS good for 79% winning bets over the past two seasons.

Portland is 16-28-1 ATS in hoe games and when facing a solid shooting team making 46% or more of their shot attempts on the season spanning the last two seasons.  

Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns

5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Boston Celtics

Let’s get right into the meat and potatoes. Betting on teams lined between a 3.5 point favorite and a 3.5-point underdog and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG on the season and coming off three consecutive games that saw at least 220 points scored in each one has earned an outstanding and highly profitable 47-19 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team has one day of rest, they have earned a 43-15 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets last 5 seasons. If our team has had the same number or more days of rest than the opponent, the record has improved to 42-17 ATS for 71% over the past 5 seasons. 

Chris Paul may be playing for the Suns tonight after having missed the previous 14 games since injuring his heel in a game at Philadelphia November 7. The Celtics have won and covered seven of its last eight games. Boston’s latest victory was Monday's 116-110 win at Toronto and covered the spread as 1.5 point underdogs. The Celtics were without center Al Horford (back) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (illness) for that game but received 31 points and 12 rebounds from Jayson Tatum and 22 points and eight rebounds from Jaylen Brown. It was Tatum's team-high 12th double-double of the season, and the 15th consecutive game Brown has scored at least 20 points.

Celtics are 14-4 ATS in road games after having won at least six of their previous games over the past two seasons. Celtics are 21-11 ATS for 66% winners in road games where they have been priced between a -3 favorite and +3 underdog over the past two seasons.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks 

5% 10-Unit Max Best bet on the 76ers 

Let’s get right to it, shall we? Betting on road underdogs, who lost to the current foe by three or fewer points in their last meeting, and the foe just lost a game priced as a favorite has earned a 35-10 ATS record good for 78% winning bets since 2017. If our dog is priced as a 4 or fewer-point underdog they have earned an 11-3 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2017. 

This is the first of two games against each other with the second game taking place Saturday in Philadelphia. Joel Embiid returned to the 76ers Monday having fully recovered from the flu while the Hawks Trey Young is back at full strength recovered from a lower leg injury. Embiid scored 33 points and 10 boards marking his fourth double-double of the young season. Not the same for Young, who shot horribly poor (10-for-28) in a 125-119 home loss last night. 

The 76ers bench is significantly better than the Hawks edition, who were outscored 43-19 last night. James Hardin remains out nursing a tendon strain in his right foot, but Tyrese Maxey, despite being so young, is learning quickly how to run the point for four quarters and doing it quite well.  

From the predictive mode, we are expecting the 76ers to score at least 111 points and make more 3-pointers than the Hawks. IN past games since 2017 in which the 76ers met these performance measures has seen them go on to a 96-16 SU record, 85-25-2 ATS (77%) record. When the Hawks have allowed 11 or more points and made fewer three-pointers than their opponent has seen them produce an 18-86 SU record and 23-81 ATS for 22% since 2017.  

LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under 

Betting the Under when the total is 210 or more points in a matchup between two teams getting outscored by 7 or more points per game has earned a highly profitable 29-19 Under record for 61% winning Under bets over the past 10 seasons. If either team allowed 1`25 or more points in their previous game, the Under then has gone 13-3 for 81% winning bets over the the past three seasons.  

Charlotte Hornets vs NY Knicks 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Knicks minus the points 

Bet on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a team that covered the spread by 24 or more points in their previous game has earned a 62-33-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our favorite is not playing on back-to-back nights, they have gone on to a 55-27-1 ATS record and 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the pistons plus the points 

Pistons are playing on back-to-back nights and coming off three straight road losses, but these negative results put the Pistons into an excellent contrarian best bet opportunity tonight. 

Betting on teams playing on back-to-back nights and have lost three straight road games have earned a 32-30 SU record and a highly profitable 45-15-2 ATS mark for 75% winning bets since the start of the 2016 season. There is more data drilling to do though. If our team is installed as a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they have gone to an outstanding money-making 19-3 ATS record good for 86.4% winning bets since 2016. 

In a rare scheduling glitch these two teams will play two consecutive games against each other in Detroit starting tonight with a day off Thursday and then the second game being played Friday. Thus far, the Hawks have been reliant on starters for most of their scoring. Trae Young leads the club in scoring (25.3 points per game) and assists (11.7). Backcourt partner Murray is second in both categories (19.7, 8.3) while grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game and nabbing 3.3 steals per outing. 

Collins is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 10.3 rebounds), but the highest-scoring reserve, Onyeka Okongwu, is averaging just 8.7 points. Charlotte's reserves outscored Atlanta's bench 52-28 in the Hawks 126-109 road loss Sunday. The Detroit bench is much better than the Hawks right now giving them a great opportunity to earn an upset win. 

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics

8:00 EDT, June 8, 2022

5% MAX Best Bet on the Warriors plus the points

Let’s get right to it. The Warriors are the best team in the NBA coming out of the half with Coach Kerr making the correct adjustments based on the first half of action and then anticipating the adjustments that his opponent will make for the second half. That was quite evident in Game-2 and Game-1 as well before the Warriors fell flat in the fourth quarter. Playoff teams, like the Warriors that have outscored their opponents by 25 or more points in the third quarter and are coming off an ATS cover by at least 3 points are 21-10 SU and 20-11 ATS for 65% winning bets.

Warriors are 10-5 ATS over the last five playoff seasons and 5-1 ATS over the last three playoff seasons coming off two consecutive home games. Kerr is 44-26-1 ATS following a game in which his team allowed 90 or fewer points.

From my predictive models, the Warriors are expected to score at least 111 points and have the better and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past regular and playoff season games under Kerr, the Warriors are 284-28 straight-up and 223-82-7 ATS for 73% winning bets; 42-4 SU and 33-13 ATS for 72% winning bets in playoff games.

Bet the Warriors plus the points.   If they are trailing at the half, consider an optional 1% wager betting the in-game line on the Warriors, which should be higher than 3.5 points if the Celtics are winning at the half. 

Miami vs Boston

4% best bet on the Miami Heat plus the points. Now that we are up to 9 points, this becomes an attractive best bet opportunity regardless of who plays and who does not play for the Heat. We saw the St. Louis Blues wins two consecutive games against the Colorado Avalanche after getting hammered in two home games to make the series 3-2. So, why not the Heat, who positively cannot play worse than they have over the past two games. 

Not all the analytics side with the Celtics. Playoff teams that are coming off a home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 54-41 SU and 51-42-2 ATS for 55% winning wagers including a 41-53-1 Over-Under record. Since 2017, these revengers are 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets including a 21-11 Over-Under record. In the 2021-22 playoffs this series accounts for two of the three previous situations with the Heat winning Game-3 after losing at home in Game-2 and the Celtics winning in Game-4 after losing in Game-3. The other game saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Golden State Warriors in Game-4 after losing at home in Game-3. These three situations have combined for a 3-0 SU and ATS record. 

Playoff teams, like the Heat, that are coming off a double-digit home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 15-15 SU and 17-12 ATS for 59% winning bets including a 17-13 Over-Under record spanning the last 20 seasons. I see at least 3-points in value betting on the Heat and somehow, they are going to will their ways to force a Game-7.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

9:00 EDT, May 26, 2022

4% Best Bet on the Golden State Warriors

Let’s get right to it. The Warriors won the first three games and lost in Game-4 on the road in this Western Conference best-of-seven finals. Teams, like the Warriors, that have won the first three games to start a conference or NBA finals and failed to get the sweep in their previous game go on to a 15-3 straight-up record and a 13-5 ATS record for 72% winning bets including 9-8-1 Over-Under spanning the last 20 seasons. If installed as a home favorite, they are 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS for 67% winners.

The Warriors are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this postseason, with an average winning margin of 118-103 and have covered the spread by an average of 7.8 PPG. They have never lost Games 4-5 consecutively after taking a 3-0 lead. 

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

8:30 EDT, May 21, 2022

5% MAX Best Bet on the Miami Heat plus the points

No. 1 seeds in the NBA playoffs are 51-37 ATS when coming off a home loss, 16-10-1 ATS for 62% winning bets when coming off a home loss and taking to the road for Game-3 of any round. Top seeds are 21-11 ATS for 65.6% winners when coming off a double-digit home loss and 14-5 ATS in the Eastern Conference. 

No.1 seeds are 12-6-1 ATS for 67% winners when having allowed 47.5% or higher 3-point shooting in their previous game and are priced as the underdog including pick-em and if playing in the Conference Finals or the NBA Finals has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69.2% winning bets. 

Teams in the conference finals or finals that are averaging 13 or more made 3-pointers and coming off a game in which they made 17 or more 3-pointers are just 3-11 SU and ATS in the next game and 2-5 ATS for 29% winning bets in favored in that next game.

My predictive models are calling for the Heat to score 108 or more points, have more rebounds and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio in Game-3. In past playoff games, teams that have met or exceeded these projections are 304-25 SU and 288-38-3 ATS for 88% winning bets. If these teams are road dogs, they have produced a 40-11 SU and 45-6 ATS for 88% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons.

Memphis vs Golden State

4% Best bet on the Warriors minus the points. 

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won between 60 and 75% of their games, that are facing a foe that has covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and sports a win percentage between 60 and 75% on the season has earned an outstanding 60-26-1 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Warriors are 17-5-1 ATS evening a road loss this season.

Plus, the Warriors have lost 6 of their last 7 ATS. Playoff teams that have lost 6 of their last 7 to the spread and are priced as a home favorite of at least 4.5 points have earned a 40-6 straight-up record and a 29-16-1 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Playoff teams that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and have 3 series wins exact are a solid 31-15-1 ATS for 67% winners over the last 20 playoff seasons,

Boston vs Milwaukee 

7:30 PM EDT 

4% Bet on the Under 

In certain situations, the market does speak to the possible best bet for a total play. The Celtics are on the road and they have averaged 112 PPG in their road games this season. The Bucks have averaged 110 PPG in their home games. If the combined score of the road team and home team is greater than or lower than the posted total by 2.5% we have one of the conditions met. Why would the market price a matchup lower than what the teams average in their respecive home or road situation? Well, it points us to the Under because there must be some team circumstances, player injuries, uncertain player availability, and recency bias.  

The total is 4.5% or 10 points lowr than the combined score of the Celtics average road game and the Bucks average home game. Plus, we need the road team coming off a loss to the current opponent and the home team having seen the OVER win at least 45% of the ome games played in the current season. This matchup has all those conditions and situations met and the Under has earned a 125-79-2 record for 61.3% winning bets over the last 10 regular and playoff seasons. If the game identified is a playoff game and the rtoad team is a dog of 2.5 points and includes Pick-em the Under has gone 9-2 for 82% winners over the last 10 playoff seasons. 

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks 

3:30 PM EST, May 8, 2022 

4% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns on the money line. 

The Suns suffered a miserable loss by their standards trailing by as many as 18 points in their eventual 9-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks in Game-3. Despite the loss they outrebounded the Mavs 45-36 and are the Association-best 43-3 straight-up record for 93.5% wins during the regular season and playoffs when winning the battle of the boards. They are 30-16 ATS for 65% winning bets in games they won the boards. The Grizzlies were a dominating rebounding team this season having played 68 games in which they got more rebounds than their opponents and produced a 56-12 SU and 53-15 ATS record for 78% winning bets. The Sus are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS following a loss in which they won the boards this season and 21-13 SU and 20-13-1 ATS for 61% winning bets over the last three seasons including playoffs. 

Chris Paul tied his career-worst in Game-3 with 6 turnovers. For his career, Chris Paul and the teams he has played for are 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS for 67% winning bets following a game in which he committed 6 or more turnovers.  

The Mavs made 13 3-pointers in Game-3 and have made 139 3-pointers through their first 9 playoff games, which is the third most in NBA playoff history. These previous teams that made 135 or more 3-pointers over their first nine games (All since 2016) had gone just 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS for 27% winners in the following game. 

Bet the Suns on the money line 

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks 

3:30 PM EST, May 7, 2022 

4% Bet Under the posted total  

Here is a highly profitable betting system that has produced a 83-51-3 Under record for 62% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet the Under with home teams that are coming off two consecutive games in which the games played Under the posted total by 20 or more points and with the team having won 60% or more of their games. Plus, in playoffs games and the home team seeded lower than their opponent, the Under has gone 7-3 for 70% winners. Moreover, the Under in regular and playoff seasons with a total of 210 or more points and meeting the criteria above has gone 24-12-2 for 67% winners. 

The markets pricing the Bucks as 2-point favorites and the total of 213 points implies a Bucks 107.5-105.5 win. My predictive models are projecting that the Bucks and Celtics will both score fewer than 105 points. In past games played in the second half of each of the last three seasons the Bucks have seen the Under go 22-1 for 96% winners when scoring fewer than 105 points. The Celtics have seen the Under go 25-2 for 93% winning bets.  

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 

7 EDT, May 6, 2022 

5% MAX Best Bet on the Miami Heat minus the points and I like them even at –4.5 points. 

The 76ers were priced as 8-point road dogs in Game-2 after losing Game-1 as a 7-point road dog. The line opened for this Game-3 matchup with the 76ers favored as single-point favorites and has moved to making the Heat a 3-point road favorite on the news that center Joel Embiid is OUT for this game. This is one of the largest line moves in the playoffs spanning the last 20 seasons and underscores how the betting community has now vastly overpriced the Heat. Being overpriced does not by itself result in an ATS win or loss either, but we are getting paid handsomely to assume the risk and uncertainty with how the 76ers will play. 

Over the past 20 playoff seasons, and a line difference of 9 or more points between the current game and the previous game, with the team, in this case the 76ers having been and road underdog in the previous game and now priced as a home underdog has seen the road favorite, Heat, perform quite well producing a 110-51 SU record for 68% money line winners and 97-62-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets. If the game is taking place in the Eastern Conference with the dog being a 4-seed or worse, the road favorite has earned a 47-17 SU mark for 74% winning bets and 41-22-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 20 playoff seasons and 16-2 SU and 15-2-1 ATS for 94% winning bets since 2015 playoff season. 

Golden State vs Memphis 

9:30 PM EST, May 3, 2022 

4% Best Bet Under the Total 

Warriors are 43-28-1 Under when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Grizzlies are versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  

Betting the UNDER in a game with a total of 220 or more points, is playing their 4th game over the past 10 days and in a game involving two of the playoff contenders or playoff teams sporting win percentages between 60 and 75% on the season has earned an outstanding 75-30-3 Under record good for 71.4% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and a 45-16-3 Under record for 74% winning bets over the last three seasons. If in the playoffs spanning the last three seasons, the UNDER is 23-5-3 for 82% winning bets. 

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors 

4% Best Bet OVER the posted total, currently at 220.5 and is valid up to and including 224.5 

In Game-1 of an NBA Playoff series from Round two through the Finals the OVER is 20-12 for 63% wins when the home team is playing on just one day of rest and in round two Game-1's, the OVER has earned a 15-7 Over record for 68.2% winning bets. Plus, 9-3 OVER run spanning the last 10 playoff seasons. 

Grizzlies are on a 10-2 OVER run when having faced a team allowing 108 or fewer points I the second half of this season. Warriors are on a 23-12-1 OVER run in the second half of this season when taking on an opponent. 

From my predictive models, Warriors are 15-4 Over for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons in regular season and playoff games in which they and their opponents attempted 190 or more field goal attempts. The Grizzlies are 22-6-1 Over for 79% winning bets. The models alspo project that 27 or more 3-pointers will be made by these two teams. In past home games that the Grizzlies and their opponents made 27 or more 3’s and combined for 180 or more FGA, the OVER has gone 43-4-3 for 92% wins and when the Grizzlies have met or exceeded these under same projections, the OVER has gone 52-10-1 for 84% wins. 

Memphis vs Minnesota 
9 PM EST, April 29, 2022 

4% 8-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total 

The following NBA betting system has earned a 31-9 Under record for 78% winning bets over the last 5 NBA seasons. Bet Under with games lined with a total of 220 to 229.5 points in games played in the second half of the season and playoffs, with a team scoring an average of 114 to 118 points, that team is coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is facing a defensive team allowing an average of 110 to 114 points per game.  

Memphis is 14-4-1 Under when facing an opponent that is averaging 15 or fewer forced turnovers per game in games played over the last two seasons. 

From my predictive models, both teams are projected to shot 45% or lower. The Under has earned an outstanding 64-12-5 record for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons in games in which they and their opponent shot no better than 45% from the field. 

Dallas vs Utah 

4% Best bet UNDER the posted total 

Betting the Under with a total of 205 or more points in a game involving a team that went Under the total by 25 or more points in their previous game and both teams have wo a minimum of 55% of their games on the season has earned a solid 31-15-4 Under record good for 67.4% winning bets over the last 10 NBA playoff seasons. Plus, over the past three NBA playoff seasons, this system has earned a highly profitable 17-7-4 Under record for 71% winning bets.  

Phoenix vs New Orleans 

4% best bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points. 

No. 1 seeds, as are the Suns, playing in Game-6 of an NBA playoff series are 17-8 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 playoff seasons. If favored, these No. Seeds have gone 9-4 ATS for 69.2% winning bets over the the last 10 playoff seasons and is a road favorite 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets. 

Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors 

4% bet on the 76ers using the money line, currently –125 and like this bet a lot up to and including –135.  

Playoff teams that won the first three games of a 7-game series, then lost two straight game are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS for 70% winners in Game-6 priced as a road favorite.  

Betting on teams revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of seven or more points in the regular season and playoffs has earned a highly profitable 40-12- ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Bet on any team that is coming off two upset losses installed as favorites in the playoffs has earned a 36-20-2 ATS record good for 64.3% winning bets over the last 10 playoff seasons.  

NBA 4% Best Bet 

Chicago vs Milwaukee 

Game-5  

5% Best Bet Over the posted total. 

This betting algorithm has produced a 45-18 record for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on teams that led by 15 or more points at the half of their previous game, the game involved has a total of at least 200 points, and the previous opponent scored 43 or fewer points in the first half of that previous game. 56% of these games played Over the posted total by a minimum of 7 points.  

Here are a few more situational angles supporting the Over bet. Bucks are 12-2-1 Over following two consecutive double-digit wins over divisional opponents and 44-22 Over following two consecutive wins in games played over the last two seasons. Bucks head coach Budenholzer is 49-29-1 Over following two double-digit wins. 

From my predictive models we are expecting the Bucks to shoot at least 48% from the field and to score at least 115 points. In past games played over the last five seasons, the Bucks are 123-30-8 for 80.4% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures.  

Minnesota vs Memphis  

4% OVER the posted total 

Memphis is 31-22 UNDER when taking on an opponent that is a good passing team averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Memphis is 19-8-1 Under when facing teams that are forcing 15 or fewer turnovers per game in games played over the last two seasons.  

From my predictive models we are expecting Minnesota to score 108 or fewer points and shoot less than 45% from the field. In past games in which the Wolves met or underperformed these performance measures has seen the UNDER go 42-12 for 78% winning bets over the last three seasons and when the total has been 230 or more points, the Under has earned a 15-4 record for 79% winning bets. 

Boston vs Brooklyn 

4% bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points.  

Betting on teams that are in a game lined between a 3.5 points dog and a 3.5-point favorite and facing an opponent that has outscored their opponents by 6 or more points per game on the season and with that opponent having played three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored in each one has gone 46-15 ATS for 75.4% winning bets and 44-17 SU for 72% wins over the last five seasons. If this game is taking place in the playoffs our team has gone 9-4 ATS for 69.2% ATS winners over the last 10 playoff seasons.  

From my predictive models, we are looking for the Nets to score 115 or more points and score at least 20 fast break points in this game. The Nets are 13-2 SU for 87% wins and 11-3-1 ATS for 79% winning bets in games where they met or exceeded that pair of performance measures. 

Suns vs Pelicans 

4% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points and consider the money line as an option if it is priced at –125 or better.  

The Suns have won 26 more games than the Pelicans on the season and including this series. NBA Playoff games in a matchup where the Dog is coming off an upset win and with the opponent having won 25 or more games on the season has seen the DOG go 2-11 ATS for 15% winning bets.  

No. 1-seeds that are coming off a loss in game they were favored are 35-26-2 ATS for 57.4% winners dating back to the 2003 season. Plus, if the game is in the first round, they are 12-7 ATS for 63% winners.  

Favorites in the NBA playoffs that are coming off a loss priced as a 7 or greater favorite have earned a 72-15 SU record and a 55-33-1 ATS mark good for 62% winning bets dating back to the 2003 season and 22-5 SU and 19-8 ATS for 70.4% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons. Plus, if our revengeful-minded team is favored by no more than 2.5 points have earned an 8-4 ATS mark for 67% winning bets. 

Bet the Suns  

Toronto vs Philadelphia 

7:30 PM EST, April 18, 2022 

4% best bet on the 76ers minus the points 

I am certainly in the camp that does not see the Raptors responding to the dominating loss they endured to the 76ers in Game-1. Maxey scored 38 points and will more than likley not reach even 28 tonight, but Embiid had 15 boards and a very quiet performance and now I believe it will be his turn to take advantage of the matchup opportunities he will enjoy. The media has you thinking that Harden is becoming a problem on the court. Nothing falser could ever be stated. When he is the conductor of the offense, the 76ers ball movement and distribution is near perfection and he had a huge game-1 distributing the ball to the correct player at the correct time and his experience are invaluable to say the least. 

Betting on 3.5 to 9.5 point favorites in the month of April that have won three or more consecutive home games has earned an outstanding 49-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

New Orleans vs Phoenix Suns 

5% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points 

In the playoffs in game 1 or 2 betting on the No.1 seed priced as a double-digit favorite has produced a 60-6 straight-up record and 37-28-1 ATS mark good for 57% winning bets. Plus, if these No.1 seed favorite is priced between 8.8 and 11.5 points, they have produced an 8-1 ATS record in game 1. The Suns are far too good to get overconfident and full of themselves and underestimate a surging Pelicans team. Must admire New Orleans’ resilience under HC Willie Green, as the Pelicans have been scrapping for weeks to get to the playoffs. McCollum’s presence certainly made a difference when the Pels came to Phoenix and inflicted a 117-102 defeat on the Suns on Feb. 25 for 1 of those 9 Footprint losses. McCollum outscored Booker 32-30 and made 11 of 18 shots and the Pelicans destroyed the Suns on the boards, posting a 53-37 rebounding edge with Valanciunas grabbing 17 of those boards. What is missing is the fact that Chris Paul did not play in that game that truly had little meaning for the Suns, who had already moved far ahead in the standings. Game-1 of the first round of the playoffs playing at a packed and raucous house will be a completely different environment for the Pelicans and one that I think will be more than just intimidating.  

OK. Playoff favorites that have been defeated by the spread by a combined total of 47 or more points over their last 7 games (can extend back into the regular season) has produced a 15-2 SU record and 13-4 ATS mark for 77% winning playoffs bets over the last five seasons. Plus, 9-0 ATS if the favorite is playing the current game with more rest than the current opponent.  

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks 

1:00 EST, April 16, 2022 

4% best bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points 

Supporting this bet on the Jazz is the following situational betting system that has earned a highly profitable 29-16 ATS record good for 64.4% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons. Bet on road favorites that made more than field goals in their previous game then what they averaged for the regular season. That is all there is to it. 

Luka is out and may not even be available for Monday’s Game-2 and Dallas is a team that is solely dependent on his super star caliber of play.  

One LIVE betting strategy that may happen in this game would allow for an excellent price on the Jazz during the first half of action. I always expect a home team just like Cleveland last night, to come out the gates flying high. Dallas will certainly have the home crowd behind them, and it is possible they get out to a 10-point lead. So, bet 50% of your 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look for the fast start by Dallas to add the other 50% amount at –1 or pick-em and try not to pay more than –115 vig. Be patient and allow the market to come to you and not force the bet and pay too much vig. LIVE odds are highly volatile, and they will move often enough, especially during a time out situation, allowig you to get the price YOU WANT.  

New Orleans vs LA Clippers 

4% Best Bet on the Pelicans as a –1 point favorite and is good to go up to and including 3.5 points. 

Clippers are just 5-17-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in the past five days this season. 

Betting on road favorites (now that the Pelicans have become the favorite) after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games has earned an outstanding 24-10 mark over the last three seasons and 40-16-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 71% wining bets. 

Denver vs Memphis 

9:00 PM EST, April 7, 2022 

4% Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets minus the points 

Betting on teams that are facing a strong opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG on the season, in a game lined between the 3’s, and with the opponent coming off three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 44-17 ATS record for 72.1% winning bets over the last four seasons.  

Memphis (55-24) is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and won't know who it will face in the first round until the play-in tournament gets started. The fact that it possibly could be the Nuggets is a little surprising. 

Denver (47-33) had a chance to clinch at least the No. 6 seed with a home win over San Antonio on Tuesday night but was blown out by the Spurs. The Nuggets need a win in one of their last two games to avoid the play-in tournament, and they can end the drama when they host the Grizzlies on Thursday night. 

Philadelphia vs Toronto 
7:30 EST, April 7, 2022 

4% bet on the UNDER  

The Raptors defeated the Atlanta Hawks 118-108 Tuesday, which secured a playoff berth and avoids the dreaded Play-In Tournament. The victory was the 12th of their last 15 games for the Raptors, who have won two of the first three meetings against the 76ers this season. However, the 76ers are in a log jam for the 2-seed among three other teams and need this win far more than the Raptors. 

If the season had ended yesterday, the 76ers would be the 4-seed and would hot the 5-seed Toronto Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. The 76ers have a 3-game lead over the Raptors and have the cellar dwelling Pacers and Pistons up next to conclude the regular season. The Boston Celtics is 50-30 for the season and clinging to a ½ game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks and 76ers, both with 49-30 records. So, I fully expect this game to have a defensive playoff-type atmosphere tonight. 

The line opened at 215.5 points and has steamed its’ wat to a current price of 220 points with a few rogue 221 numbers appearing. I like waiting till after noon EST to see where this line may top out, which I believe will be at the 221.5 points area. My recommendation is to bet 50% of your normal 4% best amount at 221.5 points and then look to add 25% more at 222.5 points and the remaining 25% at 223.5 points.  

76ers are 23-13 Under when facing a team that is allowing an average of 108 PPG in games played this season. The Raptors are 22-12-1 Under when facing a great passing team, like the 76ers, that are averaging 23 or more assists per game in the second half (after game number 41) of this season. 

Boston vs Milwaukee 

7:30 EST, April 7, 2022 

4% bet on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points 

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a matchup of excellent teams sporting win percentages between 60 and 75% on the season and with the visitor having covered the spread in four or five of their last six games has earned an outstanding 55-25 ATS result good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Celtics are just 1-10 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins priced as a favorite in games played over the last two seasons. 

Miami vs Boston 

7:40 ET, March 30, 2022 

5% MAX Bet (10-UNITS) on the Miami Heat plus the points.  

If Miami remains the underdog in this matchup, this 5% MAX Bet (10-Units) is good to go. 

In the Eastern Conference there are four teams, Miami, Philadelphia, Boston, and Milwaukee, that are within 1.5-games of each other for the race to the top-seed for the playoffs. Miami and Boston square off in this matchup with Miami the current No.1 seed and Boston the 3-seed in the playoff standings. Milwaukee is in the 2-seed position and would take on the winner of the 7-seed vs 8-seed Play-In Tournament matchup between the Cavaliers and the Nets. The winner of that matchup becomes the 7-seed in the playoff bracket and would face the 2-seed, while the loser of that game would face the winner of the 9 vs 10-seed matchup, which is currently Charlotte vs Atlanta.  

My predictive models point to Miami in this matchup and a sprinkle of no more than 0.75% (0.75 Units) on the money line. Both Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will be on the court tonight. So, we are looking for the Heat to score 111 points, have 13 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Heat met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 20-3 SU, 22-1 ATS record for 96% winning bets. They are also 14-0 ATS over the last 10 seasons when installed as a road dog of not more than five points, scoring 111 or more points with 13 or fewer turnovers. 

The following betting system has earned a 95-43-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1995, 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the game is taking place after game number 41, the record is 65-30-1 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 1995, and 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Among the 25 seasons, there have been 22 seasons that this betting algorithm has made profits. The 3 losing seasons were 1-game under 0.500 in two of those season and 2-games under 0.500 ATS in the third. 

The requirements for this betting system/algorithm is to be on any team in a matchup of two teams that have won 60% to 75% of their games in the current seasons and with the team we are betting against, Boston, coming off a straight-up loss, but covered the spread 

Clippers vs Denver 

10:00 PM EST, March 22, 2022 

4% Best Bet on the Clippers plus the points 

Clippers are solid 3-point shooting team that is making 36% of those long-range shots on the season. The Nuggets are just 1-9 ATS when facing a team that ids making at least 36% of their 3-pointers in games played this season. 

From my predictive models, we are looking for the Clippers to score at least 114 points and have 12 or fewer turnovers. When the Clippers have met or exceeded these performance measures in road games they have gone to earn a 18-6 SU record, 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. 

Bulls vs Bucks 

8:00 PM EST, March 22, 2022 

4% best bet on the Bulls plus the points, currently at +6 points and is a valid bet down to and including 4.5 points. 

The Bulls are coming off a significant win over the Eastern Conference rivals Toronto Raptors 

I do see the Bulls carrying the positive momentum over to this game against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are just 1-11 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage between 50.1 and 60% this season (at least one-game over 0.500) and just 10-20 ATS when playing against a team that is at least one-game over 0.500 this season.  

Here is a tremendous money line betting system that has earned a 51-30 straight-up record for 63% winning bets and has made the $1,000 bettor a $43,000 profit by averaging a +145-underdog bet. Bet on home teams using the money line in a matchup of teams that are allowing 108 to 114 points per game on the season and playing against the team that is one that allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. If both teams allowed 130 or more points in their previous game, then this system is void. Milwaukee was dominated by the Minnesota Timberwolves 139-119 in their previous game Saturday. 

If the game from the algorithm above is in the second half of the regular season (after game number 41) it has done even better sporting a 37-15 straight-up record for 70% winning bets averaging a +160-money line wager and has made the $1,000 bettor a $42K profit. Just this season, it has achieved a 7-6 SU result, but has made $8K in profits for the 1K bettor.  

Atlanta vs NY Knicks 

7:30 PM EST, March 22, 2022 

4% bet on the Atlanta using the first half betting line 

0.5% Trae Young Over points + assists 

You can bet that the Knicks faithful will out to boo Trae Young at every opportunity tonight at Madison Square Garden as the Hawks look to avoid a season4-0 sweep to the Knicks. He took a bow at center court last Spring when he and the Hawks eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs and the fans have not forgotten this fact. Young is at times a polarizing figure in the NBA and he does respond well to haters when playing on their court.  

Betting the first half line with a road team that is allowing an average of 108 to 114.5 points per game on the season and facing a host that is averaging just 104 to 108 points per game on the season and is coming off a double-digit loss has earned a solid 120-61 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last 25 NBA seasons and most of it coming recently due to the increase in scoring over the past 25 years with a 66-31 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last three season.  

Milwaukee vs Minnesota 

5:10 ET 

4% bet UNDER the posted total, currently at 244.5 points after opening at 242.5 points. I like this bet at 244.5 points and higher. Bucks are 7-0 Under when facing teams who attempt 39 or more 3-point shots per game on the season, 8-0 Under when facing teams who make 14 or more 3-point shots per game on the season, 14-2 Under in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  

Here is an awesome NBA Betting algorithm that has produced a 55-17 Under record good for 76% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet Under Play Under with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 and with a well-rested team, Milwaukee, playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days, and is an excellent team winning 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a winning record. It has produced a 24-6 record good for 80% winning bets over the last three seasons and 46-14 Under record good for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Portland vs NY Knicks 

7:30 ET 

4% best bet on the NY Knicks minus the points 

Portland is 9-23 ATS when facing teams allowing 108 or fewer points per game this season. NY is 23-11-1 ATS in home games which playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. Portland is 3-12-1 ATS when playing their sixth game in the past 2 weeks (14 days). Knicks are 12-2 ATS after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. 

Milwaukee vs Golden State 
8:30 PM EST, March 12, 2022 

10-Unit “Total of the Year” UNDER the posted total.  

This line opened at 231.5 points and has moved up to 234.5 points making this a terrific betting opportunity for all of us. I emphasize betting opportunity, not a LOCK, or guaranteed to win nonsense. These plays hit at 65% to 70% over the course of a calendar year in All Sports and that means that they lose 30 to 35% of the time. So, as I always conclude my shows and I sincerely mean this, “bet with your head and not over it”, is mandatory. Stay disciplined and allow the wins to grind your building profits over the course of the season and not just one single day.  

Bucks are 24-6-1 Under when playing against a playoff-type team that is winning more than 60% of their games spanning the last two seasons.  

Betting the Under in games lined at 230 or more points, with a team coming off a road win and a matchup in which both teams have won 60% to 75% of their games in the current season has produced a 27-3 Under record for 85% winning bets and is a perfect 15-0 Under record spanning the last three seasons. 24 of the games bet over the last five seasons has gone Under the total by at least seven points.  

Minnesota vs Cleveland 

7:10 PM EST 

5% best bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves  

The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to continue their climb in the Western Conference standings with a win over the Eastern Conference Cleveland Cavaliers set to tip-off at 7:10 PM EST at the Rocket Mortgage Field House. Cleveland has relied on their defense that ranks best in the Association allowing an average of 102.3 points per game. The Wolves have the 6th best scoring offense in the league averaging 113.1 points per game.  

The problem I have with the Cleveland defense is that it is based on slowing the pace of play to a crawl. They rank 30th in the league averaging 84.8 shot attempts per game so the defensive points allowed per game would be higher based on 100 possessions per game. They rank 4th in the NBA allowing 106.4 points per game per 100 possessions per game. Cleveland is an average defensive rebounding team and this is where the Wolves have a major advantage and will have many more second chance scoring opportunities than the Cavaliers. The Wolves rank 4th in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.2% on the season. 

Cavaliers are just 33-50 ATS when facing good teams like the Wolves that are averaging at least 23 assists per game and 12-28 ATS when facing teams shooting 24 or fewer free throws per game in the second half of each of the last two seasons. Plus, they are a dismal 3-16 ATS after failing to cover four or more consecutive games over the past two seasons and 0-8 ATS following a game in which they were called for 10 or fewer fouls than their opponent.  

From my predictive models, I am expecting the Wolves to attempt 90 or more shots and will overcome the Cavaliers attempts to slow the pace of the game. As road favorites including pick-em, the Wolves are 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets when attempt 90 or more shots. Take the Minnesota Wolves for a 5% best bet. 

Dallas vs Golden State 

7:30 ET 

4% best bet on the Dallas Mavericks plus the points 

The Warriors had limped into last week's All-Star break having lost four of five games to fall 6 1/2 behind first-place Phoenix. But Golden State returned to action in top form Thursday with a 132-95 road win over the Portland Trail Blazers. 

Mavs are on a 9-1 ATS win streak when coming off a loss. The Warriors Thompson is listed as questionable, and it appears he will not be in this game tonight. If he does suit up the line may move by as much as three points. I like the Mavs no matter what Thompson’s status becomes. So, a suggested strategy is to bet 50% of your 4% bet size now and then wait till the game is within 30-minutes of tip-off and add the remaining 50% amount. 

Mavs are 21-9 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  

Here is an excellent betting system that has earned a 26-8 ATS record for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet on road underdogs in the second half of the season (after game number 41) that are making 33 to 37% of their three-point shots, are coming off back-to-backgames in which they made at least 15 3-pointers and now taking on an opponent that allows 33 to 37% 3-point shooting.  

Philadelphia vs New York 

4% best bet OVER the posted total 

RJ Barrett will look to build off a career-high performance when the Knicks host James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday at Madison Square Garden set to tip at 1:00 EST. RJ Barrett's career-high 46 points weren't enough on Friday for the host Knicks, who dropped a 115-100 decision to the Miami Heat. Having him back in the lineup does make the Knicks a much better offensive team. The presence of James Harden has been impressive despite being just a 1-game sample size. Still, I think the 76ers are a team that is one of the best offensive ones in the NBA and are capable of averaging 120+ points when Jarden is in the lineup.  

Betting the Over in a game lined between 210 and 219.5 points after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last five games (Knicks), and has a losing record on the season has earned a 85-39 Over record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

76ers are 43-242 Over for 64% in road games and coming off a 20+ point blowout win over the past 25 seasons, and when priced as a road favorite are 21-11-1 Over for 66% winners. 

Brooklyn vs New York 

7:30 PM EST, February 16, 2022 

5% 10- UNIT best Bet on the Nets plus the points and is valid bet if the Nets are at least a 3-point underdog. 

0.5% (0.5 units) 

As hard as it is to believe, the Nets have not had two consecutive wins in over a month. I obviously believe that sickening trend will end tonight is MSG. There is always the chance for an ATS win, but SU loss when the bet is on a dog, but when the dog is 4.5 or fewer points, an ATS win generally translates to a SU win.  

In the Nets 109-85 win over the Sacramento Kings as a 2.5-point home underdog they never trailed in the game. The highlights of the postgame press conference comments were about how the chemistry in the locker room radically changed to “Everyone likes each other”. Whether intentionally stated or not, this change in culture is a major positive factor that has the potential to propel the Nets to the World Championship.  

Anyway, this research is about this game and the 5% grading. So, let’s get to it right now. 

The following is a highly profitable betting algorithm that has produced consistent results for many seasons. It has earned a 17-9-1 ATS record over the last three seasons and 36-15-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that have lost five or six of their last six games, has a winning record on the season, and is taking on a losing record team.  

Plus, if that team (Nets) played a home game in their previous game, their record soars to 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

5% 5-UNIT NBA Game of the Month 

JR is nailing the NBA and is on a 73% ATS win streak and his last 5% was a Big-Time winner when the 76ers favored by 6.5 points defeated the Spurs 119-100 and that was his only 5% release in the NBA. This one is reinforced by a highly profitable betting system that has hit 70% winners and includes a subset that is a remarkable 20-5 ATS for 80% winners spanning the last five seasons. Brooklyn vs New York 

7:30 PM EST, February 16, 2022 

5% best Bet on the Nets plus the points and is valid bet if the Nets are at least a 3-point underdog. 

0.5% (0.5 units) 

As hard as it is to believe, the Nets have not had two consecutive wins in over a month. I obviously believe that sickening trend will end tonight is MSG. There is always the chance for an ATS win, but SU loss when the bet is on a dog, but when the dog is 4.5 or fewer points, an ATS win generally translates to a SU win.  

In the Nets 109-85 win over the Sacramento Kings as a 2.5-point home underdog they never trailed in the game. The highlights of the postgame press conference comments were about how the chemistry in the locker room radically changed to “Everyone likes each other”. Whether intentionally stated or not, this change in culture is a major positive factor that has the potential to propel the Nets to the World Championship.  

Anyway, this research is about this game and the 5% grading. So, let’s get to it right now. 

The following is a highly profitable betting algorithm that has produced consistent results for many seasons. It has earned a 17-9-1 ATS record over the last three seasons and 36-15-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that have lost five or six of their last six games, has a winning record on the season, and is taking on a losing record team.  

Plus, if that team (Nets) played a home game in their previous game, their record soars to 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Phoenix vs Chicago 
4% bet on the Chicago Bulls 

Bulls are coming off a 119-108 home loss to the 76ers, in which Embiid scored 40 points. He was not the high scorer in the game as DeMar DeRozan scored 45 points including 9 rebounds and 7 assists. The Bull have been playing without forward Zach Levine, who is suffering from back spasms. I do expect the Bulls to bounce back from the loss Sunday and get the ATS win tonight. They are 19-7 SU, 17-9 ATS for 65% winning bets in their home games this season. 

Here is a highly profitable and consistent NBA betting system that has earned a 74-40 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on teams that have exceeded the total by at least 6 points in each of their last five games and now facing a conference opponent. Plus, if our team (Bulls) is playing on back-to-back nights, they improve to 13-6 ATS for 68.4% winning bets. 

Miami vs Washington 
4% best bet on Washington plus the points 

Wizards are 43-22 ATS 67% in home games taking on a guest that is averaging at least 23 assists per game in games played over the last three seasons. Wizards are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 95 or fewer points in their previous game in games played over the last two seasons. On Saturday, the Wizards lost badly 95-80 as 8-point dogs to the juggernaut Phoenix Suns.  

From the predictive models there is a high probability that the Wizards will get at least 48 rebounds. In past games, the Wizards are 7-2 ATS this season and 31-13 ATS the last three seasons when they have had 48 or more boards. 

Toronto vs Charlotte 

4% best bet OVER the Total 

Raptors are 29-18 OVER when facing teams that are averaging fewer than 21 free throws per game this season. 

Betting the OVER with a team that is coming off two or more consecutive OVER games, is a solid defensive team allowing 104 to 108 PPG and now facing an opponent that is a poor defensive team allowing 114 to 119 PPG has earned a 57-29 OVER record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Milwaukee vs LA Clippers 

4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points 

This simple to use NBA betting system has earned an outstanding 37-12 for 77% winning bets ATS record over the last 25 seasons and has not lost ATS over the past five seasons. Bet on road favorites in a non-conference matchup that is facing a host that is coming off a win of not more than three points over a divisional foe. Over the last 10 seasons, this betting angle has produced an incredible 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets.  

Atlanta vs Dallas 

4% bet on the Atlanta Hawks plus the points. 

The following is a money-making betting system that has earned a 55-28 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet on losing record teams that have won five or six of their past seven games and in a matchup with the line between the 3’s. Plus, if our team involved in this matchup is the road team, they improve to 11-2 SU and ATS for 85% winning tickets. 

Here is a second supporting algorithm that has done quite well over the last five seasons sporting a 50-30 ATS record and 64% winning tickets. Bet on teams that are lined within the 3’s and are coming off a double-digit road loss and now taking on a host that they defeated in their last matchup. 

Indiana vs Phoenix 
4% bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points. 

This is the 4th road game of their scheduled 5-game travel through the Western Conference. They defeated the Lakers 111-104 as 5.5-point dogs on Wednesday and then defeated the Warriors, who had almost all starters given the night off, 121-117 as 13.5-point dogs. The status of those starters was announced just prior to the tip and the market had a very small window of time to adjust. I think Phoenix will not bench any starters and will not overlook the Pacers tonight. 

Pacers are just 20-35 ATS facing teams that are making at least 37% of their three-point shot attempts spanning the last three seasons. Also, betting against underdogs that are coming off back-to-back upset wins has earned a 196-133-6 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and if the dog is playing their third or more consecutive road game installed as a double-digit underdog has seen our favorite earn a highly profitable 22-10 ATS record good for 69% winning bets.  

Chicago Bulls vs Dallas Mavericks 
4% bet on the Bulls minus the points 

Bet on road favorites that are taking on a host that led at the half of their last game by 20 or more points. This simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 98-46-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last 25 NBA seasons and is 12-6 ATS for 767% winners over the last five seasons. 

Dallas has been a money-losing 9-22 ATS in home games after winning their previous game on the road spanning the past three seasons. They are also a weak 4-15 ATS in home games and have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games in games played over the last three seasons.  

Spurs vs 76ers 
5% (5-UNIT) best bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.  

The 76ers are back to full strength and appear to have the COVID-19 problems that inflicted the team a month ago in their rearview mirrors. They have won five consecutive games and will looking to make it six straight tonight against the Spurs at the Wells Fargo Arena. 

Embiid, who recently was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Month, has at least 30 points in all five wins. The Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, but this style works against them in a big way having to defend Embiid in the paint or out beyond the arc. Embiid has a complete all-around game going for him and his teammates and is simply unstoppable. 

The Spurs, Dejounte Murray came off the COVID-19 list and produced 22 points in the Spurs' 99-97 win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Murray had been out for 10 days, including five games. The Spurs lost four consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in three of the four losses, while Murray was out. With Murray back in action, the market is giving us the opportunity to ’buy’ the 76ers at a cheap price and I see them winning this game by double-digits. 

From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 110 points and have 14 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the 76ers met or exceeded these measures, they went on to earn a 72-26 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons and when installed as a 4.5 to 9.5 point home favorite has produced a 37-1 SU record and 30-8 ATS record for 79% winning bets. Take the 76ers.  

76ers vs Nets 

The Nets got James Harden back on the roster late last week and his first two games were dominating and reminded me of his days with the Houston Rockets. However, the story now shifts with the probable return of KD to the lineup and how he and more importantly he and James will play together on the same court tonight. The Nets also got rotation players DeAndre' Bembry, Bruce Brown and James Johnson back over the weekend and LaMarcus Aldridge is also expected to play Thursday. The 76ers have been more at full strength in the past week then at any time over the past month.  

The line opened with the Nets priced as a 3.5-point home favorite and the news of KD’s return has seen a steam move to –5.5 points. The total opened at 217 and the news has since forced the market to move higher now at 222.5 points.  

Betting on teams fresh off a road win over a divisional foe and playing their third game in five days has produced a solid 23-10-1 ATS record for 70% winners over the last five seasons and 17-6 ATS over the last three seasons for 74% winners. 

Wizards vs Kings

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on the Wizards minus the points

Kings opened as 1-point favorites and now the market has moved three points through pick to make Wizards a 2-point favorite.  I fully agree with the market movement and so do my predictive models.

Betting on road teams that have lost five or more of their last seven games with a winning record on the season and facing a losing record team has done well earning a 33-9 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. Wizards have lost five of the last six games and failed to cover in all but one of them. That lone game was a push in a 116-110 road loss at Indiana. Kings have lost three straight games and have a losing 11-17 record for the season.

Houston vs Oklahoma City

8:00 PM EST, December 1, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total

Here is an NBA betting angle with specific parameters that has been extraordinarily consistent over 25 seasons. Bet the UNDER in a game lined between 210 and 219.5 points in a matchup of teams that struggle from long range and make no better than 33% of those shots and with both teams in the matchup having average rebound differentials between -3 and +3 for the season. Over the last 25 seasons this set of parameters has earned a 47-11 ATS record for 81% winning bets and is a perfect 16-0 over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns

9:00 ET. July 17, 2021

4-Unit Best bet on the Milwaukee Bucks plus the points

I like making these types of underdogs a combination wager comprised of 80% of your normal 4-UNIT bet size on the line and 20% more on the money line. Over the course of a season, the money line bet will outperform the spread-only wager.

From my predictive models, the Bucks are expected to shoot better, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio over the Suns. In past games, in which the Bucks met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a remarkable 106-1 SU and 94-11-2 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last 3 seasons.

Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks 
8:00 PM EST, July 11, 2021 
5-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER 

I will get right to it and the models are heavily on the OVER in Game-3 of the 2021 NBA Finals. Betting the OVER with a home team in a game with a total of 220 or more points, that has lost three consecutive times to the current opponent and playing their fourth game in the past 10 days has earned a 74-37-3 record OVER in regular and post-season games spanning the past five seasons. If the game is a playoff game, then the OVER is a near-perfect 14-1 OVER for 93% winning bets.  

In addition, home favorites of not more than 4-points and including all home dogs and having no more than 4-days between their previous series game have earned a 32-10-1 OVER record for 62% winning bets.  

From the predictive tools, the Bucks re expected to attempt at least 90 shots in Game-3 and over the past three seasons, they are 49-28-1 OVER for 64% winning bets when playing at this fast pace. They were the fastest paced team in the NBA this season. In road games, the Suns are 31-15-2 OVER when their opponent has attempted at least 90 shots over the past three seasons.  

Bet the OVER as a 5-UNIT Best Bet 

Milwaukee vs Atlanta
Saturday, 7/3/2021 8:30 PM

Game-6

I stated on a few shows that with both teams’ best player ruled out for Game-5, the Bucks had  the far easier adjustment for their game plan. The reason is obvious in my opinion. The Bucks top-2 players in possession percentage (time that a player is dribbling the ball/holding the ball) are Holiday and Middleton accounting for an average 11.8 minutes-per-game. Yannis is 4th most on the Bucks. The Hawks Trey Young handles the ball nearly 9-minutes-per-gamem which is double the amount of any other player on the roster. That allowed the Bucks to get out to their fast start and won Game-5 never trailing.

I expect both teams to come out playing fast in Game-6 and let’s not forget that the Bucks were the fastest paced-team during the regular season. The predictive models reflect a high probability that both of these teams will score at least 111 points. The Bucks are 11-2-1 OVER in games lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick, this season, and in which they scored a minimum of 111 points. If the game was played on the road the OVER was 7-1 for 88% winning bets. Under the same conditions, the Hawks are 20-2-2 OVER and 11-0-2 OVER in home games this season.

An alternative betting strategy is to bet the OVER with 50% of your normal betting amount, and then add 25% more at 209.5 and 25% more at 204.5 points. The worst case is that the market never drops to either of those price levels, but that almost ensures the 50% OVER bet will be a winner. A -120 vig will appear often, but if you are patient you will get a -115 or lower price. Do not pay -120 vig is my advice for in-game live betting.

Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

LA Clippers (56 - 33) At Phoenix (62 - 24)

Monday, 6/28/2021 9:00 PM

Western Conference - Conference Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 5

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points

Betting on home favorites of 3 to 9 points and are coming off a game in which they held the opponent to 35% or worse shooting in games played over the last five seasons has earned a 31-6 SU record and 29-8 ATS for 78% winning bets. The UNDER is a solid 23-14 record for 62.2% wins. 

The predictive models and machine learning applications predict that Phoenix will score at least 112 points and make at least 85% of their free throws. In past home games, in which the Suns met or exceeded this pair of measures has produced a 22-11 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Phoenix vs LA Clippers

Game – 4 of the Western Conference Finals

Saturday, 6/26/2021 9:00 PM EST

5- UNIT Best Bet on the Clippers using the money line.

Bet on home teams that are facing a foe that has covered 8 or more of their last 10 games and is playing only their 4th game in the past 10 games has earned a 26-14 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and a remarkable 10-3 ATS for 77% in the playoffs. 

Phoenix is 4-16 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points to a divisional rival in games played over the last 3 seasons. 

From the predictive side of things, the Clippers are 50-11 ATS for 82% winning bets in home games when scoring 112 or more points and having a better 3-point shooting percentage than their opponent.  

Atlanta vs Milwaukee

8:30 PM EST, 6-25-21

NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks

Atlanta does not fare well against teams, like Milwaukee, who defend the perimeter to contest shots, and not look to clog the passing lanes looking for steals. The Hawks are just 8-21 ATS in road games when facing a team that averages 14 or fewer forced turnovers-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. 

Betting on favorites that are revenging a previous loss installed as a favorite of 7 or more points and is now facing an opponent that is coming off two or more upset wins has earned an outstanding 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the last 20 NBA seasons. When this situation has occurred in the playoffs, the record has been 20-6 SU, 17-9 for 65% ATS, and the UNDER 18-8. 

Bet the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points.

Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers

Game-5 Eastern Conference Playoffs

7:30 PM EST, June 16, 2021

4-unit Best Bet on the 76ers minus the points

Embiid is expected to play tonight and I recommend making this bet about 10-minutes prior to game time. Another option, which is what I will do, is bet 50% of my normal 4% amount at 4:00 ET and then look to add 25% in-game at 76ers +3.5 and then 25% 76ers at pick-em. Another in-game strategy is bet the 76ers line after the Hawks score 10 or more unanswered points. All of the these betting strategies are valid just for the first-half.

Atlanta shot 37% from the field in their 103-100 win in Game-4. Note that road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that shot less than 40% in the previous game which they won are just 10-34 SU and 17-27 ATS for 38% and 27-17 UNDER. Not a recommendation for the UNDER on my part.

Philadelphia will get it done in game-5 no matter how many minutes Embiid plays tonight.

My machine learning models predict that the 76ers will score at least 117 points. The implied final score based on a 224 point total and the 76ers favored by 7 points is a 76ers 116-108 home win. In past home games in which the 76ers scored at least 115 points and had more fast break points than their guest did has earned an incredible 42-3 SU record, 37-8 ATS mark for 82% winning bets and 32-13 to the OVER.

June 11, 2021, Best Bets

Philadelphia vs Atlanta

Friday, 6/11/2021 at 7:30 PM

4-UNIT Best bet on the 76ers using the money line

Let’s start with a tried-and-true betting angle that has earned a 24-10 ATS record for 71.2% winning bets over the past five seasons including the playoffs. The requirements are to bet on a team involved in a game lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick-em and is facing an elite opponent that has won 12 of their last 15 games. This backs the 76ers. 

From the predictive models, there is a high expectation that the 76ers will exceed 115 points in this game, have fewer turnovers, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past road games in which the 76ers met or exceeded these expectations has earned bettors backing the 76ers a solid 99-12 SU and 88-24 ATS for 78.2% winning bets over the last five seasons including the playoffs. 

Milwaukee vs Brooklyn
Game-2, Second Round of the 2020-21 NBA Playoffs          

Monday, 6/7/2021 7:30 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Nets

The money line is the way to go on this play given the skinny line right now pricing the Nets as 1.5-point home favorites. Pinnacle (Pinny) is offering a money line price of -111 currently and is cheaper than other books line price of -1.15 with -110 vig. This play will be graded as a money line play.

Nets are a solid 36-15 ATS when they have faced an opponent that has made 46% or more of their shot attempts this season; 16-9 ATS after game number 41 of this. Season and many of those games did not have the big-3 on the court together.

Betting on home teams using the money line after game number 41, in a matchup of excellent ball handling teams committing no more than 14.5 turnovers-per-game, are excellent free throw shooting teams making at least 79% of their attempts, and the opponent has made 70 to 75% of their free throw attempts on the season has earned an outstanding 73% winning bets on a 77-29 record spanning the last five seasons.

Moreover, since the rise in scoring that started three seasons previous and has averaged 111 to 112.1 PPG, the previous betting angle has earned an outstanding 46-10 SU record good for 82% winning bets.

Atlanta vs Philadelphia
Game-1, Second Round of the 2020-21 NBA Playoffs          

Sunday, 6/5/2021 1:00 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

Getting right to the point, the UNDER sports a perfect 11-0 UNDER record in Game-1 of a playoff series spanning the past five seasons. Three seasons past, the NBA scoring average jumped from 106 PPG to 111 PPG and has inched higher in each of the last three seasons to this seasons 112.2 PPG. So, it is important that the aforementioned angle is considering only the past five seasons because previous to that slice of games, there were few playoff games with totals of 220 or more points.

The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game and clearly points to head coach Doc Rivers putting 100% of the focus on the 76ers tremendous defensive presence led by Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle. Simmons started Game-5 as the Center in their close-out and dominating win over the Washington Wizards. Moreover, as I had suggested for weeks on the Predictive Playbook shows (Monday through Friday starting at 4:15 ET), the 76ers finally started Thybulle and it worked better than my expectations.

Atlanta’s best player is Trey Young and all season long, Simmons has been assigned to defend the best player on the opponent’s team. No doubt this will happen once again in this game and the series. Earlier this season, Simmons, defended Yannis and held him to career lows in scoring for a first half and the Bucks scored just 29 pts in that first-half of action.

The Knicks are listed as the best defensive unit in the Eastern Conference, but that is before you factor in [pace-of play, which the 76ers play much faster tempo than the Knicks have this season. The 76ers are the best defensive unit by a large margin in the Eastern Conference and that defense will come to the forefront this afternoon.

The Hawks are 6-1 UNDER when revenging two double-digit losses to the current opponent.

Milwaukee vs Brooklyn         

Saturday, 6/5/2021 7:30 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets

Let’s start with a betting angle that has earned a solid 64-33 record for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on home teams (Nets) in a matchup of winning record teams and now facing an opponent has covered the spread in their last three games installed as a favorite.

The Nets are 30-14-1 ATS when facing an opponent that is making at least 46% of their shot attempts on the season in this season. They are also 35-16-2 ATS this season when facing a team that is scoring at least 112 PPG (League Average).

The machine learning applications predict that the Nets will score at least 115 points in this game. The Bucks are just 15-33 SU and 7-41 ATS in road games and have allowed at least 115 points spanning games played over the last three seasons.

LA CLIPPERS (49 - 28) at DALLAS (45 - 32)     

Friday, 6/4/2021 9:00 PM

5-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

The American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas, will be filled with passionate Maverick fans, but the LA Clippers will still be considered the favorites in this Game-6 Elimination game despite trailing 3-2 in the series. Granted, 2-points is not much of a road favorite, and I do see the Mavericks as undervalued by the betting markets.

The last time the first five games of an NBA playoff series went to the visitors was the 1994-95 season Western Conference finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, which the Rockets did win 4-2 and then went on to sweep the Orlando Magic in four games for the NBA Championship. Houston won on the road by 21 points at San Antonio and then closed at the series in Houston in Game-6 by the final score of 100-95.

The following NBA Betting angle is one of my more complex mathematical gems, but it is not that difficult to understand. What matters I that the angle has won 68% of the UNDER bets made over the last five seasons on a remarkable 74-35-2record.

Bet the under with a road team playing with revenge.

The road team’s average points scored in their road games added to the opponents average points allowed in their home games is 2.5% greater than the posted total.

The UNDER has won the money in at least 50% of the opponent’s home games on the season.

This set of game parameters has gone an incredible 20-2-2 for 91% winning UNDER best in the 2020 season including winning the last 10 games.

This season, Dallas is 17-3 UNDER when facing an opponent that is making 48% or more of their field goal attempts; 10-3 UNDER when facing teams making at least 39% of their 3-point shot attempts and 6-2 UNDER since the mid-point of the 2020 regular season.

PHILADELPHIA (52 - 23) at WASHINGTON (35 - 42)    

Monday, 5/31/2021 7:00 PM

Game-4 First Round

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total.

The 76ers certainly have dominated this series over the first three games and there is little reason to believe this series will extend beyond tonight’s game. However, the UNDER is the preferred best bet to make.

Betting on the UNDER with all teams where the total is 230 or more points after having won four or five of their last six games, and is playing no more than their 6th game in the past 14 days.

The 76ers are 13-3 to the UNDER when on the road in a game with a total of 230 or more points over the past three seasons. Over the past 25 season, the 76ers are 18-4 UNDER in Game-4 of a playoff series. The Wizards are 15-7 UNDER coming off a double-digit loss this season.

Bet the UNDER in Game-4. If the total is below 230, it does not invalidate this bet. So, even if it is 228 points, for instance, the bet is on the UNDER.

BROOKLYN (50 - 25) at BOSTON (38 - 38)          

Sunday, 5/30/2021 7:00 PM

NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and with that opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points has earned a highly profitable 42-11 SU and 37-14-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 20 seasons.

Brookyln is 32-17 ATS (+1370 per $100 bet) when facing teams scoring at or above the NBA League average of 112 or more points-per-game this season. Boston is just 4-18 ATS (-1550 per $100 bet) when facing teams who average 7 or fewer steals-per-game this season. Plus, Boston is just 7-22 ATS in home games facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in the second half of each of the last three seasons.

Take the Brooklyn Nets minus the points.

SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 9:30 PM ET

Game 3: Series tied 1-1

Jazz @ Grizzlies

FedExForum, Memphis, TN

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points

This series is tied at 1-game a piece, but Utah is clearly the much better team in this matchup with the Grizzlies. What I like most, is that the Jazz have produced a 0.31 free throw to field goal attempt ratio. This means that they are taking 31% of the total field goals attempted over the first two games, and means they are getting to the charity stripe at a high rate. The Jazz will look to get this ratio to an evem higher level, which puts the Grizzlies in potential foul trouble in the first half. The Grizzlies are not nearly as deep as the Jazz and it will be a monumental advantage to the Jazz if they make more free throws than the Grizzlies.

From the predictive side of things, the ML models project that the Jazz will shoot at least 48% from the field and make at least 20 free throws. Over the past three seasons, playoff teams that have met or erxceeded these performance measures have earned a 48-8 SU record and 42-12 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last three playoff seasons.

Bet the Utah Jazz as a 8-UNIT Best Bet minus the points.

SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 7:00 PM ET

Game 3: PHI leads series 2-0

76ers @ Wizards

Capital One Arena, Washington, DC

The 76ers have dominated the Wizards through the first two games and there is no reason not to expect that domination again here in Game-3. The 76ers are the best defensive team in the NBA, in my opinion, and will focus even more attention on the defensive end in this road game. This season, the 76ers are 13-4 UNDER when facing an opponent that averages a minimum of six or more made 3-point shots-per-game OR attempts an average of 18 3-point shot attempts-per-game.

Betting the UNDER in a playoff game with a total of at least 225 or more points and one of the teams averages at least 7 steals-per-game has earned a 27-17-1 UNDER record good for 61% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Plus, 76ers are 15-4 UNDER in a road game and coming off an UNDER game this season.

Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle are two of the best defensive players in the NBA. Simmons is a definite contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award and Thybulle’s defensive measures are insanely good because he is averaging about 20-minutes-per-game. His minutes are increasing in the playoffs and despite being a guard, he is averaging a series-leading 3.5 blocks-per-game. In addition to his defensive prowess, Simmons has averaged a triple-double in this series averaging 12 assists-per-game, 12 rebounds-per-game, and 14 PPG. Simmons is very strong 6-11 point guard and Bradley Beal has admitted that it is much more difficult to score poinnts when he is defended by Simmons.

My machine learning applications are ex[ecting no more than 88 shot attempts by the 76ers. They are 18-6 UNDER for 75% winning bets, this season, when they have attempted no more than 88 shots.

Bet the UNDER in Game-3