Upset of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Aggies have won and covered the last three games of this series, but they have gone 9 consecutive FBS games scoring 25 or fewer points – second-longest current streak in the FBS. Things are in crisis mode in College Station, as their fans are not used to seeing three consecutive defeats. Their saving grace is the fact they actually outgained their first FBS foe this season (they’re 1-5 ITS) in last week’s loss to South Carolina. Fisher lost three games in a row once in his career, (in 2011) but won the next game 41-16 at home against Duke. We call for the upset today. To cap it off,  Jimbo Fisher is 14-3 SU at home off consecutive losses, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog.

ACC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Notre Dame has been favored in the last eight matchups in this series since 2003 and even covered when a 33-point favorite in 2020. They are 3-1 ATS in the last four, 4-1 ATS away vs foes .800 or better, and a sturdy 9-3 ATS in ACC road games… PLUS a whopping 5-0 SUATS in the last five ACC battles. Meanwhile the state of the Orangemen must be called into doubt after the Clemson crusher, plus the Dome hasn’t always been a warm home to the football program. SU is a horrible 0-4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points when coming off a conference contest. Finally, ND is 17-6 ATS as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when the Irish are coming off a win of 4 or more points.

TNF Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady is 10-0 SUATS in his NFL career with a losing record and coming off a loss. On the other side of the field, the Ravens are certainly not hitting on all cylinders either going 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests. And with it, Baltimore brings a 0-5-1 ATS mark in Thursday road games. ultimately, NFL teams coming off three consecutive losses as a favorite of 7 or more points in each game are 3-1-1 ATS since 1980. In addition, the Bucs are 5-0 SUATS the last five games as an underdog with Tom Brady behind center, while Brady is 6-0 ATS as a dog versus AFC North foes in his NFL career. Lastly, Bucs QB Tom Brady is 41-17-2 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career, including 11-1-1 ATS at home.

Inter-conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After starting 3-0 SUATS this season behind the lefty, the Fish ride a 0-3 SUATS skid entering this contest. The Dolphins have plummeted from being ranked fi rst in points per drive with Tagovailoa, to 29th without him. Tua, though, brings a lofty 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS career mark into this battle, including 10-4 SUATS at home. Nonetheless, concussions take center stage in this contest with new rookie QB Kenny Pickett currently in concussion protocol. Steelers’ backup QB Mitchell Trubisky completed nine of 12 passes for 144 yards and a TD in relief of Pickett who left last week’s game woozy with a concussion. Another side bar issue today will be the return of former Miami head coach and current Pittsburgh defensive assistant Brian Flores, who’s has had run-ins with Fish owner Stephen Ross over reported ‘tanking’ issues. However, .500 or greater NFL teams, 0-3 SUATS in their last three games, are 14-1 SUATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a SU underdog win.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Kansas City is 8-18 ATS as a favorite when coming off one loss when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 3-14 ATS versus avenging foes. The bottom line, though,  the Niners’ No. 1 ranked defense is 101 YPG superior to that of the Chiefs. That being the case, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 14-6 ATS as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more, including 6-0 ATS versus .714 or fewer opponents.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bama’s 40 straight appearances in the Top 5 ends as they fall to No. 6 entering this contest. However, before knee-jerking and deciding to back Bama here, you need to know that Nick Saban is just 6-13 ATS in his CFB head coaching career, including just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS at home when coming off a SUATS loss and facing an FBS opponent. Mississippi State HC, Mike Leach is 30-15 ATS after a double digit loss, including 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games. Additionally playing against any unrested double-digit conference favorite from Game 7 out off its first loss of the season as a conference favorite of more than 7 points if they’re facing a greater than .333 conference foe off a loss is 15-1 ATS since 1980.

MAC game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After a slow 0-3 start, the Bulls have kicked their heels and ride a 4-0 SUATS win skein entering this contest. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG in those four games, while the defense has held its last two opponents to just 7 points apiece. Buffalo in this series is 5-1 ATS of late, including 3-0 ATS at UB Stadium. Buffalo is also 12-4-1 ATS as a home dog, including 5-0-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opposition. Head coach Maurice Linguist, had sunk to 4-11 with the Bulls until they went on their recent 4 game rampage. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS favorite win. Also, consider that playing on any college football home dog who is 4-0 SUATS in its last four games if they were favored in their last game is  22-9 ATS since 1980, including 20-4 ATS if they are facing a foe coming off consecutive wins..

SNF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The stat that jumps out in this contest is that both teams rank No. 1 and 2 in Net Turnover Margin, with Philly +1.8 and Dallas +1.0. For what it’s worth, the Eagles are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS under Nick Sirianni in games in which they lose the TOs, while the Cowboys are 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS the same way under Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, where Sunday night home teams coming off consecutive wins tend to struggle, there is no refuting the fact that teams who just upset the defending Super Bowl champions are close to no shows the following game. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in games after Rams, and the Eagles seeking triple revenge it's important knowing America’s Team is a meager 1-9 SUATS away versus .428 or greater foes seeking triple revenge.  Finally, playing against any NFL away team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in their last game by 7+ points and scored 28+ points if they’re facing a .400 > foe and the O/U total in this game is < 44 is a PERFECT 15-0 ATS since 1980.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

It starts with KC QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-1 SU mark versus .777 or greater foes, as well as his 4-1 SUATS record at home versus the AFC East during the regular season. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen has struggled away in his NFL career against .700 or better foes, going just 2-5 SUATS. Digging deeper, the Bills are 1-12 ATS in the 2nd quarter of the season (Games 5-8) with a .500 or greater win percentage when coming off a SUATS win and facing an opponent coming off a home game. Head coach Andy Reid brings in a 28-9-1 ATS dog log into this prime time showdown when coming off consecutive wins, including 4-0-1 ATS at home. Consider also that the Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The bottom line is that Brian Kelly will need to do a better job or his one-game deficit in the SEC West will be blowing in the wind. At least he helps himself by bringing along a 21-12 ATS record as a road dog, including 9-1 ATS off an ATS loss of 9 or more points. LSU has also held its own in the last nine series contests with Florida, going 6-2-1 ATS overall and 3-1 SUATS away. New Gators head coach Billy Napier looks to be behind the 8-ball here, as the host team has gone 1-4 ATS in five lined games under Napier this season. Florida also hasn’t fared well of late in home games when playing with SEC revenge, going just 1-4 ATS. Consider finally, that Napier stands 5-11-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

First, BYU in the favorite role at home is 2-6 ATS when the spread is under 6 points. Second, Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or less. Third, the Razorbacks are a sharp 4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Even better, or worse depending on whom you’re rooting for, a top-notch SEC underdog coming off losses to Bama and Texas A&M finds itself 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in this situation. Consider that the Cougars have not faired well versus the SEC going 1-8 ATS versus SEC foes since 1990.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore has been outgained in all four games this season.  Cincinnati’s strength this season has been its defense as they rank No. 8 in points allowed and No. 11 in overall yards allowed. They are also one of five teams that have been installed as a favorite in every game this year – yet dress up as a dog today. Finally, consider that  Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS against foes seeking double revenge.

NFC South Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Brady is 12-4 ATS in his NFL career when his team is coming off consecutive losses, as well as 23-7 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. To clinch it, Brady is 7-1 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit home loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games.

PAC-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Washington State is 7-2 ATS as the visitor  in this series and 12-3 ATS in Game One of back-to-back road games. Looking up another Washington State stat yields: 7-0 ATS on the road against double-digit unbeaten favorites. USC makes this decision easier by being 2-11 ATS in Game 6, 1-6 ATS home versus conference triple vengeance, and 2-6 ATS in game two of a back-to-back conference affair at home. Add to that the risk of SC looking ahead to a big-time revenge matchup with Utah next week and the LA crowd might be distracted.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Kelly has been a home hero, going 18-7 SU at home versus undefeated foes, including 13-3 in games in which his troops allow fewer than 21 PPG. LSU is also 5-1 ATS versus conference opponents with rest, and 15-8 ATS as a home dog when coming off an ATS loss, including 4-0 SUATS over the last four. Last week’s win over Auburn was ugly, as Kelly’s team fell behind early, 17-0, before getting it into gear. Tennessee has solid wins against Florida and
Pitt, but the Vols are just 2-7 ATS in Game 5. Finally, consider that the Vols are 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS when both teams were favorites in their last game, including 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in SEC games.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Given the fact the Jags, with their new head coach Doug Pederson, are 0-10 ATS in the second of consecutive away games, they are also 0-4 ATS against the NFC East. On the other side of the coin, Philly is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the AFC South. All good numbers in the Eagles’ favor, for sure. To cap all of this off, consider that playing one any NFL non-division home team in Game 4 if not favored by more than 7 points vs. a foe that scored more than 24 points in its last game is 17-3 ATS since 1980.

AFC Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Mariota owns nearly twice the career wins (31) than Browns signal caller Jacoby Brissett (16). However, the Hawaiian hurler is 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS in his NFL career in games when his team is coming off a SU underdog win – including 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS when not taking three or more points, not to mention 1-6-1 ATS against AFC North opponents. We cap it off with the fact that Atlanta is 0-8  SUATS versus the AFC North since 2014, while Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating; 4 units

Both teams are 4-0 on the season, this marks the Wolfpack’s first ACC tilt while the Tigers bring a 2-0 conference record into this affair. Recent ATS history offer full support to Clemson here, as they are 7-1 ATS as conference chalk of 8 or fewer points, plus the series host has cashed in three of the last four. That’s pretty strong considering State’s 1-7 ATS failure as a dog of 8 or fewer points, and a 1-4 ATS mark playing away from Raleigh after a non-conference home game. Most important, though, is the fact that the Wolfpack tripped up the Tigers, 27-21, as 10.5-point home dogs last season. With Dabo revenge in play here, we’ll lay the points as he has excelled in conference games when seeking revenge, going 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS in his career, including a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a single-digit favorite.

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The 23 points given up by the Hawkeyes in their first four games are the fewest scored on the team since 1966. In addition,  Iowa will be looking to avenge last season’s loss to Michigan,42-3, in the Big Ten title game. things to consider are that College football home dogs like Iowa, who won 10-plus games the previous season, are 3-0 ATS in Game Five versus undefeated foes playing their first road game of the season. Additionally,  4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in Game Five versus foes coming off consecutive wins.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Green Bay’s is 14-2 ATS in games after battling the Bears, along with the Pack’s 9-5-1 SU and 10-5 ATS record in games when seeking “double revenge”, including 10-2 ATS versus .333 or great foes. On the other side of the coin, the Bucs are 2-8 ATS at home against foes seeking “double revenge”, as well as 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s of the season. Finally the Packers are 11-2 SUATS with a sub .750 win percentage under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 4-0 SUATS when seeking revenge.

AFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Matt Ryan now owns a 63.9 QB Rating with the Colts. The saving grace is his 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opposition, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog. On the opposite side of the field, the 2-0 Chiefs – the only undefeated team in the AFC West – enter with a Super Bowl grudge rematch on tap at Tampa Bay next week. Kansas City’s 1-5 ATS record in its last six AFC South skirmishes, and the Colts 6-1 ATS log when coming off a division road. Finally NFL home dogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS, including 10-0 ATS versus .466 or greater opponents.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

K-State has covered the last three matchups in this series, and head coach Chris Kleiman is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, including 4-0 ATS when taking more than a dozen points. There is no question that the Wildcats have struggled offensively this season, but the loss to Tulane last week was truly an aberration for star RB Deuce Vaughn, as the diminutive junior failed to score a TD for the first time in 10 games. Kleiman’s defense, however, is very good. Consider , teams playing AWAY off their first loss of the season find point spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 139-106-7 ATS dating back to 1980. When these teams are also off an ATS loss (Kansas State), they improve to 121-78-4 ATS in these situations. And if these teams are coming off a SU favorite loss they ratchet up to 69-35-2 ATS, including 38-13-1 ATS as a dog, in addition to 31-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win – and a 20-6 ATS combo as a dog against foes coming off a SUATS win.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Gators own a huge statistical edge in this series, going 5-1 SUATS the last six meetings, 11-1-1 ATS in Game 4, and a whopping: 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games against Tennessee. The Vols are 0-4 SUATS in Game 4’s, and 1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10 or more points. Tennessee is also 6-8 SU and 4-10 ATS at Rocky Top coming off a home game, and a depressing 0-5 SUATS against SEC foes coming off a win. To cap it off Florida is 14-2 SU and 14-1-1 ATS in this series when Tennessee is coming off a win of 10 or more.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating; 5 Units

Rodgers has made a living at home in his career with the Packers, going 69-38-4 ATS overall, including 27-12 ATS in division games, as well as 28-9-2 ATS when hosting foes coming off a SUATS win. Green Bay is 20-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in this series since 2011, including 8-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. To clinch it, Green Bay is 9-0 SUATS in regular season games when coming off a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur.

NFC Division Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady comes into this one with a 2-7 ATS career mark when taking to the road as a favorite when coming off a road win after beating the spread by double-digits in his last game including six straight losing tickets in his last six tries. Additionally Tampa is 1-6 ATS away in games with double revenge. Consider as well that New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series, and 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as conference home dogs versus .800 or greater opponents.

Mismatch of the Week

Rating: 4 units

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS at home in this series and this 6th most experienced team in the nation. Meanwhile, Marshall has struggled on the road when they visit the MAC, going 11-25-1 ATS and 1-5 ATS when coming off a win where they beat a 21 point plus spread. In addition,  double-digit ATS winners that are 2-0 road favorites slip badly the following week, going 3-10 ATS the past five years in game 3’s. Consider as well that playing against any college football favorite who upset Notre Dame in its last game if they beat the spread by 17 or more points in the win is 12-1-1 since 1992.

Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating; 5 Units

Coach Bryan Harsin after a rough first season, is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated foes. Nittany Lions leader James Franklin is 3-10-1 ATS away vs a team coming off back to back wins. PSU being 2-7 ATS vs. the SEC is another reason we’re going with the Tigers.

NFL Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Bucs are 1-6 ATS as non-division road chalk and 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC East foes. Looking to the opposite side of the field we find Dallas at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home dog roles, and 4-0 ATS versus the, NFC South. To cap it off consider that an NFL pick or road favorites who won 13-plus games last season are 19-32-1 ATS in season openers, including 0-4 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 50 or more points.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Steeler head coach, Mike Tomlin makes winning division games a priority, going 65-29-1 in his career – including 10-4-1 in first division contests of the season. Additionally, playing against NFL any division road team not favored by 8 or more points in Game One of the season if they lost in the Super Bowl game last season is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1988.

CFB Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cougars are 15-7 ATS in home openers, including 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favorite of more than 2 points. The host in this series winning and covering the last three matchups, while BYU is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opponents. To clinch it, Baylor is 2-10 ATS in its first away game of the season, including 0-6 ATS when not favored by more than 14 points.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

With at least four games to come against ranked opponents, last weeks loss deals a major blow to the Eagles’ path back to bowl eligibility under 3rd-year coach Jeff Hafley. A long-term 18-7-1 ATS record as conference road dogs since 2013, including 7-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a loss, plus a series spread mark of 8-3 ATS in the last eleven games (4-1 ATS in the last five) means it's a BC call tonight. To seal the deal consider that beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite are 54-72 ATS in these games, and if they happen to be seeking revenge in this contest, they dip to 8-17 SU and 6-19 ATS in these frays – including 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS if they scored 24 or fewer points in the loss.

Thursday Blowout

Rating: 4 Units

Rams are 5-0 SUATS Game One of the season the last five years, while head coach Sean McVay is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS during the first three games of the season in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS at home. With public support overflowing for the Bills, we consider that fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980.

NCAAF Play of the Day

4 Units

Kelly hasn’t exactly been an ATM early in the season, going 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years, and 5-13-2 ATS in the first three games of the year versus foes that won 5 or fewer games the previous season,  including 0-5 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Meanwhile, Norvell is 16-9 SU and 11-7 ATS versus non-conference opponents, including 7-0 ATS the last seven contests, and 7-1 ATS during the first three games of the season.

5* CFB Blowout

The tale of the ATS tape tonight doesn’t strongly favor either side. Ohio State is 34-1 SU in season openers, including 22 wins in a row, and 4-0 SUATS of late in the series (average win 15.5 PPG). The Irish counter with a recent 14-5 SU record versus Big Ten opponents, and in the last 115 games in which ND has tackled the Big Ten, they’ve lost by more than 17 points only 10 times. The bottom line is this many points is simply too much to pass up with a quality team like the Irish. Buckeyes win on the scoreboard, but Notre Dame cashes the ticket.

NCAAF Game of the Week

5 Units

Appalachian State stands 11-1 SU at home under third-year head coach Shawn Clarke, and 32-3 SU on the Mountain since 2016. FYI: the Apps are also 40-11 ITS (In The Stats) the last four years, including 21-3 at home. To seal the deal, consider that Appalachian State is 23-1 SU in regular season games in which they win the stats the past two seasons.

Rating: 5 Unit AFC Divisional Game of the Week

NFL teams who have managed to take down a Bill Belichick coached team by 20 or more points are just 6-12 SUATS in follow-up contests, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus greater than .666 foes. With the win the Bills are now 3-0 at home and 0-3 away in the playoffs under Sean McDermott. The Chiefs bumped Buffalo out of the playoffs in the AFC title game last year, although the Bills did circle back and rout the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead in October. The Bills enter this contest with +32 net TDs this season – the best in the league. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes was money for Chiefs’ backers in last week’s 42-21 win over Pittsburgh, going 30-of-39 for 404 yards, five touchdowns and the interception. Meanwhile, M’homey is 7-2 in the postseason, with both losses coming at the hands of Tom Brady. Consider that teams coming off a Wild Card win of 25-plus points are 3-7 SUATS since 1990, including 0-5 SUATS versus sub .800 foes.  In addition, playing against  any NFL away team in the Divisional Round of the playoffs coming off a win of 25-plus points if they’re facing a .750 or fewer opponent is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit Wild Card Game of the Week

Rest assured, the Bills have been chewing nails since losing to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field today knowing that playoff home teams who fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 SU and 34-16-2 ATS overall, including 26-3 SU and 21-6-2 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points. Yes, we realize that six of their victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback, but after its 7-0 SUATS winning skein, New England enters just 1-3 SUATS in its last four contests while nearly mirroring its dismal 1-4 start to begin the season. The Pats where out-yarded -406 net yards against five fellow bowl teams this season, while the Bills outs tatted six playoff teams to the tune of +325 net yards. In fact, consider that NFL playoff home favorites who were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1996 when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 8 points.

Rating: 4 UnitSNF Game of the Week

The Chargers’ Achilles heel has been its scoring defense in late stages of the game, as the 10.3 PPG they surrender in the 4Q of games is the worst in the league. However, Vegas is the worst team in the league in Penalty Yards Per Game which means nothing surprises us in this prime time playoff eliminator. In a game of back-and-forth possibilities, we settle on this beauty  that winning division home dogs of 3 or fewer points seeking revenge in their final game of the season are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS since 1980. In addition, playing on any division home dog with a winning record coming off a SU non-division NFL road win as a dog of 4 or more points if they are facing an opponent that has won 21 or fewer of its last 32 overall games is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.  That should put the Raiders in the playoffs.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

Niners need either a win or a loss by the Saints, and they are in the playoffs as a wild card. Frisco upended Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home dog back in November, and has now won and covered each of the past three meetings in this series. After stumbling out of the gate 3-5 during the first half of the season, Kyle Shanahan’s troops have found their groove going 6-2 SUATS and 7-1 ITS (In The Stats) in their previous eight games. With the horned heads just 3-9 ATS at home when coming off consecutive road contests, and the 49ers sporting a 28-12 SU and 28-10-2 ATS record as a visitor in this series, the points become the play today. To cap it off, consider that the Rams are 1-7 SUATS at home in division games when coming off consecutive away wins, including 0-6 SUATS the last six.

Rating: 6 Unit AFC Game of the Month

Cincinnati comes into this one celebrating their first playoff berth, division title, and season of double-digit wins since 2015. QB Joe Burrow passed for 446 yards and four TDs, giving him 971 yards and eight TDs, and zero interceptions over the past two weeks. And Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase has become the NFL ‘s most dangerous connection. With the Browns averaging a mere 4.4 PPG during the 4Q this season – only Atlanta was worse – look for the Bengals to avenge a 41-16 home loss suffered against Cleveland two months ago. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 10-0 SU and 8-2 in this series when the Browns are coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including 6-0 SUATS when Cleveland owns a losing record.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

The Cowboys became the 17th different NFC East division champion in the past 17 seasons when they clinched the crown in last week’s 56-14 whipping of Washington. With it, QB Dak Prescott fi nally broke out of his slump, albeit against a poor pass defense missing lots of personnel. Prescott was nearly perfect in this game going 28-of-39 for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll need a repeat performance today, though, especially with ‘Zona 6-1 SUATS away this season. Consider that Dallas is 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS at home the last 11 years without rest versus .666 or greater conference opponents, including 0-12 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of fewer than 51 points

Rating: 5 Unit AFC Game of the Week

Miami’s 21-3 win over New Orleans Monday Night was more lopsided than the final score indicated, as the Dolphins outgained the Saints, 259-164, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. With it, they currently hold down the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture after Monday night’s win, with two more games left to prove they’re deserving of a postseason berth. With last week’s home underdog win over San Francisco, Tennessee enters today’s fray as the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC playoff picture. After tossing for only 40 yards in the first half against San Francisco last week, Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill came alive after the break finishing up 22-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown. Still, they are just 1-6 ATS as non-division home chalk of 5 or fewer points, while Miami is 17-4 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or fewer points. Consider that NFL dogs riding a 7-game-exact win streak are 13-3 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS when coming off a non-division victory.

Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Day

The Golden Domers are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS versus .846-or-greater Big 12 opponents, plus 7-13 SU and 6-14 ATS versus bowl opponents that allow fewer than 18.5 PPG. And that is key here as the Cowboys have one of the stingiest defensive units in the nation (ranked 3rd in the country), and allowed just 16.8 points per game this season, which was 7th in scoring defense. DC Jim Knowles is another major coach who has flown the coop before a bowl game, heading for the same position at Ohio State, but the defensive game plan is etched in stone in Stillwater. Also, remember, the Cowboys were one inch away from a possible appearance in this season College Football Playoff after going 5-0 SUATS away from home this season. Consider that College Bowl favorites entering 3-0 SUATS in their last three games, the last an ATS win of 6-plus points, are 4-29 ATS against a foe who scored 21 or fewer points in its final game of the season.  Know also that playing against any College Bowl favorite who is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games if they are off a double-digit ATS win and are facing a foe coming off a loss who allows fewer than 25 PPG is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Week

The East Lansing Knothole Gang is a crackling 7-1 ATS in its last eight bowls, 3-0 ATS versus the ACC in the last three, and the B1G Boys have been bullies against the ACC in bowl season, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Big-moneyed Head Coach Mel Tucker engineered the biggest one-season turnaround in the long history of Spartans’ football and despite all the attention Walker III earned, don’t sleep on talented QB Payton Thorne, especially if receiver Jalen Nailor is able to bounce back from injury and join fellow wideout Jayden Reed. Consider as well that .700 or greater College Bowl ‘Mission Teams’ – teams who missed a bowl game last season after having been a bowler each of the previous three seasons – are 16-3-1 ATS versus foes coming off a loss.

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month

Oregon got as high as No. 3 in the CFB Playoff rankings before getting spanked twice in two weeks by Utah, which destroyed any hopes for a playoff appearance or a New Year’s Six Bowl. It’s bad enough that the down-and-out  Ducks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Bowls, but the Pac-12 is 0-5 ATS versus the Big 12 of late in post-season matchups, and Bowl dogs of 15 or fewer points off a conference loss of 28 or more are 3-9 ATS… that’s a lot of fugly numbers at work here against the quackers in this matchup. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in bowl games in which the Sooners sport the better record. In fact, OU is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against Pac-12 foes in games in which the Sooners own the better record. With both head coaches bolting for greener pastures – Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley is off to USC, while Oregon’s Mario Cristobal landed at Miami Florida – the feeling here is the Sooners have much more unfinished business at hand in this contest. The Clincher: Pac-12 bowlers coming off a SUATS loss are 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS since 2015.

Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Play of the Day

Despite being the primary focus of every defense, Brad Roberts is the Falcons workhorse, averaging over 106 YPG with his longest run of the season being only 33 yards. People tend to forget the Falcons in the bowl season too, but AFA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU victories, 4-1 ATS when an opponent limps in off a double-digit loss (like UL is), and 4-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points. Also consider that playing on any Military bowl team with a greater than .666 win percentage versus an opponent not coming off a double-digit win is 18-2 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

The Dolphins have won yardage in each of their last five games, while surrendering just 272 YPG throughout the course of its current six-game win skein. On the flip side, the Saints did the impossible when they blanked Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs in Tampa Bay last week. And for that they figure to pay a price today. For openers, New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS home versus AFC opponents. In the 9-0 victory last week, only one Saint registered more than 17 receiving yards. That was Marquez Callaway, who had a big game. He caught six of his nine targets for 112 yards. Look for New Orleans and its 1-9-1 ATS record as an AFC host to take a hit tonight. The Clincher: Teams who shut out the defending Super Bowl champions in a win of 7 or more points are 0-3 SUATS since 1980 their next game.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day

The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month

Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week

QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out.

Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay.

Rating: 10 Unit 10* AFC Game of the Year

Baltimore’s loss to Pittsburgh dropped their chances at landing a spot in the postseason to 85%. It all blows to smithereens, though, with a Cleveland win today. However, I we like the Browns’ chances, as teams in Game Thirteen with a .500 record, who were in the playoffs last season, are 18-3 SUATS when seeking revenge. That’s a big number. And so is Baker Mayfield’s 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS record with the Browns against foes coming off a loss, including 9-1 ATS when not favored by 3 or more points. To cap it off, consider that playing on  6-6 NFL team in Game Thirteen if they were a playoff team last season and are seeking revenge against a .500 or greater opponent that is not coming off a loss of 12 or more points is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1990.

5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game.

Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day

While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week

Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher:  Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Units 4* Big-10 Bash

The Hawkeyes have held the upper hand in this series with the Wolverines, going 15-8-1 ATS as a dog in this series, including 8-2 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage, and 6-0 ATS when the Maize-and-Blue are coming off back-to-back wins.  In addition, teams entering their conference championship game, coming off a win of 14 or more points, are just 19-29 ATS all-time, including 1-9 ATS against a foe coming off a loss. Next, the favorite in Big Ten title games is 2-8 ATS (1-7 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). Finally, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings a 5-0 ATS record as a dog of more than 7 points with a win percentage of .750 or more into the fray. The clincher:  Playing Against any favorite of 6 or more points with a better record than its opponent in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or fewer opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1996.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* AAC Championship Cash

Playing high-profile opponents has not been a problem for Cincinnati, either, considering they own a spotless 5-0 ATS record in the last five contests versus .900 or greater opponents. Series history also favors UC, as Houston stands 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Bearcats, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS here. And despite this year’s success, Cougars coach Holgorsen is only 9-18 SU and 11-16 ATS versus undefeated opposition in his career. The clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* Sun Belt Championship Smash

Much like the Baylor-Oklahoma State contest, these two own very similar numbers in the most important offensive and defensive team stats, but there is one area where the Cajuns own an overwhelming edge: Appalachian State is dead even when it comes to turnover margin in 2021, while Louisiana checks in at +11. In addition to riding an 11-game win streak since an opening season loss at Texas, Louisiana beat ASU by 28 points in mid-October when they held the Mountaineers to a season-low 13 points and 211 yards. The Clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day

A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season.

Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week

The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

There is not a whole lot on the line in this game for the Bruins – they have qualified for a bowl game (but cannot reach the Pac-12 title game), and they are still basking in the glow of their 62-33 destruction of arch-rival USC. Also, consider that they are 0-6-1 ATS after taking on the Trojans, 0-5-1 ATS in Game Twelve, and 1-7 ATS as home chalk of less than 10 points. Therefore, this becomes the ideal spot for the Bears, who still need a pair of wins (although next week doesn’t matter unless they score a victory here) to earn their bowl stripes. On top of that, they have owned this series spread-wise, going 12-4-1 ATS as a dog, and overall are 6-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points. In addition, the Bears are 21-8 ATS as an underdog with head coach Justin Wilcox, including 7-0 ATS when the Bears own a losing record.

Rating: 5 Unit  Big-12 Game of the Week

Okies a step behind normally overpowering "O", with 3 take aways greasing skids for escape vs Iowa St (25-15 first down & 362-306 yard deficits). Oklahoma St "D" has been immovable, ranking 3rd, 4th, & 2nd in total, rushing, scoring. A 165-23 pt edge L4 tilts. Repaying 6 straight losses. Consider as well that playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980

Rating 5 UnitsBig-10 Game of the Week

Our numbers for this game clearly put the Spartans at a disadvantage, including a 0-5 ATS mark after playing Ohio State, and a 0-4 home record against the number when they have conference revenge. On the flip side, regardless of the outcome of this game, neither team can improve or regress in the standings of the Big Ten East Division when the 7-4 / 4-4 Lions invade East Lansing to take on the 9-2 / 6-2 Spartans. With that being the case, you know it’s a much more important result for PSU as far as bowl positioning is concerned. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LRGs, as well as 4-1 ATS away versus conference revenge. PSU’s 26thranked defense (335 YPG) is also leagues better than MSU’s 119th rated stop-unit (463 YPG)... and therein lies your edge. Consider as well that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 30-4 SU and 27-7 ATS in games when coming off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS versus greater-than .400 foes.

Rating: 5 Unit  Upset of the Week

Wake has limped to the barn at the end of the season many times, 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and a frightening 0-5 SUATS versus teams coming off a SUATS loss. The Demon Deacons are also 3-12 ATS in the back half of back-to-back conference roadies. Meanwhile the Boston Brawlers are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 4 or more, 15-3 ATS versus conference opponents they defeated in a most recent meeting, as well as 8-3 ATS vs .800 or greater vs. conference opponents. They have thrived since QB Phil Jurevic returned. Consider that playing on  any .500 or greater college football conference home dog coming off one loss-exact if they lost SU as a favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 24.5 or fewer PPG and they average more than 120 rushing yards per game if they are facing an .800 or greater opponent that allows 17.5 or more PPG who won fewer than 12 games last season is 15-0 ATS since 1980. Wake Forest needs a M-U-S-T W-I-N, but we see U-P-S-E-T instead.

5 Unit NFL Total of the Month

KC can let it all hang it this week with a Bye upcoming. And ‘Bye the way’... we’ve mentioned all season long about the hot over pattern for these teams. In the long and short term. All non-div favs before their Bye Week (KC), with OU line 41 > pts is 91-51-3 O/U since 2007. All favs before their Bye Week with OU line of 45 > pts (CHIEFS) is 8-0 O/U this year. It looks like the Sharps and Squares alike will both be on the over. #1 vs #4 offense + Last team with ball wins = Arrowhead SHOOTOUT.... 37 to 34!

5* NFL Game of the Week

4* NFC Division Game of the Day

Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980.

4* Big-12 Play of the Day

Iowa State is a solid 5-1 ATS away with conference revenge, and 4-1 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the deflated Sooners have the look of “bubble burst” written all over them after falling to the Baylor Bears, and we’ll look for the Clones to stick another pin in their balloon today, especially since Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home in this series when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Sooners are also 6-10 ATS in games when coming off their first loss of the season, including 2-7 ATS versus foes who allow fewer than 23 PPG. ISU head coach Matt Campbell going against teams coming off an upset loss, is 6-0 ATS as a dog when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite, as well as 8-2 ATS in games when his team was upset. Also, playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 since 1980.

5* MWC Game of the Week

The Wolf Pack is yet another team that appears to have hit the wall, going 2-2 the past four games following a 5-1 start to the season. Nevada is also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than 4 points versus military teams. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark as a dog against foes with an identical record. Consider as well, that .700 teams playing in Game 11 pretty much have their holiday bowl plans in the making, it is also a major letdown time for these teams dressing up without rest as contented home favorites in these contests. That’s confirmed by the fact that these chalk artists are just 74-82-1 ATS (47%) in this role since 1980. And when these teams are coming off a loss and facing .500 or greater opponents, they fall to 11-26 ATS. Worse, these teams tumble to 1-14 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents.

Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week

New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of  the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin brings is a 13-23 SU and 16-20 ATS career mark into games against opponents with a better win percentage, including 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS versus .875 or greater foes. This will mark the fourth time in the last five years these two teams will meet as ranked teams, so neither side should find the stage too large. However, to Michigan’s credit, the Maize-and-Blue did not buckle beneath the weight of the “bubble burst” following the contested loss against Sparty, methodically grinding out a 29-7 win over Indiana last Saturday, holding the Hoosiers to just 195 total yards. The feeling here is the Wolverines are the better team, and they’ll be out to avenge a season-ending home loss to the Lions last year, one that denied them a .500 campaign. Consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 40-8
SU and 30-18 ATS when coming off a win and owning the better record, including 10-1 SUATS when facing greater than .600 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

OU is still unbeaten but not ATS under Riley, instead they’re a middling 9-14 in that category. There is one Jimmy the Greek style checkmark in the Sooners column, a powerful 14-2 ATS mark as road chalk of 8 or fewer. BU is coming off a surprise loss to TCU last week but in their series with OU, Da Bears are 3-0 ATS in the last three and 7-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a loss. In conference revenge games, Baylor is a sturdy 10-2 ATS, plus, BU is 20-5 SUATS in Waco since 2011 against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS as the dog. It’s only the eighth time in this long series both teams have been ranked, all of them since 2011, and OU is 4-3. Consider that since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Nine out facing .700 or greater opponents are just 49-50 SU and 40-57-3 (41.2%). Say hello to Oklahoma. Worse, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole when they’re installed as road favorites of 4 or more points, falling to 14-31 ATS. And when installed as favorites of 4 or more points when coming off a win of 20 or more points, they drop to 16-13 SU and SU and 7-22 ATS in these games, including 6-7 SU and 1-12 ATS against foes that were favored by more than 7 points in their last game

Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day

For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging  a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

 Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.

Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year

Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition,  the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990.  The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

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Rating: 4 Unit CFB Upset of the Day

UTEP battled back from a 28-10 4Q deficit to fall, 28-25, at Florida Atlantic last week, but at 6-2 this season, the Miners will be bowling for the fi rst time since 2014. Why, you ask? Because they are 7-1 ITS (In The Stats), winning the stats by +100 YPG, and are 4-2 ATS as double-digit pups over the past two seasons. Will another double-digit dog pull an upset this week? A total of 34 FBS games have fallen into that category this season and this has a strong possibility of being another.  Consider as well that playing against any 7-0 or greater college football dog road favorite coming off a week of rest if they are facing a .444 or greater opponent that is not coming off a win of 7 or more points is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

The 5-3 Boilermakers are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the stats by an average of 72 net YPG. They beat a Top 10-ranked Iowa team three weeks ago, and are looking to do the same here today. Consider this: the Spartans are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-Michigan meetings in which they managed to score 30 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in games in which MSU allows more than 20 PPG. They are also 1-5 SUATS after taking on UM in games in which they coughed up 30-plus points. Can you spell L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Also consider that playing against any college football road favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in its last game is o 4-20 ATS in this role from Game Seven out. And if this is a conference game, they drop to 3-18 ATS.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Mismatch

On the heels of back-to-back wins, call this a crucial game for the 3-5
/ 2-3 Bears, who have fared quite well as a visitor under head coach
Justin Wilcox, going 7-0 ATS on the highway when coming off a win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have been dominated by the Bears in this series, at just 7-19 ATS, including 1-9 ATS when the Bears own a losing record. Zona is 0-8 on the season in Jedd Fisch’s first year, and while they hung tough at USC last week, losing 41-34, they have surrendered season-high yardage in two of
their last three games.

Rating: 5 UnitCFB Game of the Week

The 44-37 defeat was the first loss of the season for SMU, and Dykes now runs into another prolific passing attack in Memphis, ranked 18th in the nation (296 YPG). He is also 4-11 ATS as conference road chalk, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents. Meanwhile, Memphis had covered six straight times in this series until getting nipped last season, 30-27, on a field goal at the final gun. That sets up a conference revenge situation for the Tigers, a role in which they are 4-1 ATS at home. In addition, at 4-4 on the season, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is battling to earn a bowl bid for the eighth year in a row. A win today will help, and so does the fact that SMU is 2-9 ATS as a conference road favorite of 17 or fewer points, including 0-4 ATS from Game Nine out. Better yet, playing against any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its initial loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Unit Inter-Conference Total of the Week

This week’s Primetime ‘bookend’ concludes with the Monday Nighter, as the reeling KC Chiefs host the Giants in  Kansas City. It’s an ideal time to go low... with the Chiefs currently in an offensive funk... and taking on one of our favorite ‘Under’ teams in the G-Men (Giants: 1-9 O/U L2Y in non-div games w/ an OU of > 43 pts). At last look, KC was favored by 10 pts with an OU line of 52. Consider that Monday Night double-digit non-division home favorites (Chiefs) have gone 5-23-1 O/U (and 0-7 O/U In L5 years) when the OU line is 54 or less points.

Rating: 3 Unit NFC Total of the Day

We’re certainly aware that Dallas is on a very hot 4-game SU, ATS, and ‘OVER’ streak in a row. the sample size is small, but significant: NFL road teams (DAL) off 4+ SUATS wins and 4+ ‘OVERS’ have gone 6-0-1 O/U since 2004 when the OU line is < 57 points. With amazing offensive point totals of 35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 games, our next query tells us that, Non-Division teams who scored 35 > pts in each of their last 4 games (DALLAS) have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U since 2000 when the OU line is 46 > points.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog.

Rating: 3 Unit AFC Total of the Week

The fact that Cincy is a huge road favorite plays right into our hands, as NFL road favs of 9 > pts (Cin) have gone 73% under since 2011 (17-47-2 O/U), when the OU line is 41 > pts. Yes, we’re aware that the Bengals just scored 41 points against the Ravens last week. All ROAD teams who scored 40+ pts on the division road the previous week (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years. This will be Cincy’s 3rd straight road game in a row. Consider that all teams in 3rd straight road game after allowing 17 < pts in last two games (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

The Huskies have taken care of business in this series, going 4-1-1 ATS off a win when Stanford is coming off a loss of 3 or more points. Washington is also 4-1 ATS as a conference dog coming off a SU win and a double-digit ATS loss. Those situations were all set up by an embarrassing first half (65 total yards and zero points) against Arizona, one of the very worst teams in the nation. This, very irritated Washington fans have been calling for back-up QB Sam Huard, but the truth is Dylan Morris got his act together just in time to pull out the win over the Cats. Still, this year’s 3-4 SU record indicates that Jimmy Lake is not the answer in Seattle. With the Huskies looking to avenge a pair of losses to Stanford over the past two seasons as double-digit favorites, we hand it off to the clincher where playing on any 17 or more returning starter college football dog with revenge coming off consecutive ATS losses if they are facing a sub .450 opponent coming off consecutive losses is 19-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Unit SEC Game of the Week

Kentucky is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye week, and after this Starkville trip, they must still face Tennessee and Louisville, so any hopes of a Top 10 finish after that 6-0 start (last accomplished in 1977) are quickly fading away. As for the Starkville Bulldogs, last year’s horror show in Lexington came in the midst of a 4-game losing skid, as the Dogs dropped a 24-2 decision to the Cats, the second-lowest point production by a Mike Leach team in his career. Revenge is tasty, but so is the Halloween candy that the Mad Professor munches on yearly,
so there’s no doubt he should wake up to a plastic pumpkin full of candy corn and gummy bears tomorrow morning if he can pull off this upset. MSU has held four foes to season-low or second-low yards this season, but here’s what to consider that Leach is 4-2 SUATS at home off two previous home losses, including 3-0 SUATS if .500 or greater.

Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week

The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month

The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game
losing skid, while sporting the better ‘O’ and ‘D’ in this contest. Frisco is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS of late against AFC South opposition. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo back after being sidelined the last six quarters with a calf injury, look for him to improve on his 20-7 SU and 16-11 ATS career mark against non-division foes here tonight. Finally consider that the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS In his NFL career when coming off three losses in a row.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge.

Rating: 4 Units

Don't look now, but we've got another non-Power Five squad attaching itself to a Top 25 ranking, these Roadrunners, who are just 20 pts from a 20-3 spread run (actually 17-6-1). Dog is 13-4 (5-0 this year) ATS in Bulldog games, but Tech can't run (#99), & Kendall just 10 TDs with 8 INTs

Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day

Mississippi is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with conference revenge, and 3-9 versus the number as SEC chalk of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, LSU is 4-1 ATS as road dogs of less than 10 points and has covered the spread 4 of the last five meetings in this series. Consider that  LSU coach Orgeron is 27-11 ATS in conference games against foes with a better record, including 11-0 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in his previous game.

Rating: 4 Units

Rice was expected to wake up this season but hasn’t followed the script, entering today’s game at 2-4 on the season. And don’t get too excited about that pair of victories, since they came against the likes of Texas Southern and Southern Miss (1-6). Meanwhile, the host in this series is 8-1 ATS with the Blazers 5-0 ATS at home. In addition, Bill Clark is 25-5 SU and 18-7 ATS at home as the head man with the Blazers, including 21-1 SU and 15-2-1 ATS versus .600 or less foes. We’re defi nitely not about to step in front of that with these sleepy visitors

Rating: 5 Unit CFB Game of the Week

Army Head Coach Jeff Monken is very comfortable as the point man in this role, going 11-4 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points coming off back-to-back defeats, including 4-0 ATS under Monken. Wake has never shone against military schools, going just 7-18 SU and 8-16 ATS, including 4-6 SU and 2-8
ATS as favorites. They’re also 0-3-1 ATS as road chalk when they are carrying the weight of being undefeated. Consider also that  5-0 or greater road favorites
coming off a week of rest are only 17-30 ATS since 1997, including 1-9 ATS in games in which they allow 20 or more PPG in a season. The Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense while the Demon Deacons allow 171 rushing yards on the ground. The clincher:  Army HC Moken has been a gift in games against undefeated opposition, going 7-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS when his troops have at least one loss on the season.

CFB 5* Upset

That's a lot for the Midshipmen to prep for after its latest loss last Thursday. The defense gave up four touchdowns on Memphis' first five drives in a 35-17 defeat. Navy made the most of its first possession against Memphis, piecing together a methodical, 21-play touchdown drive that lasted 11:50. The Midshipmen scored only 10 points the rest of the day. Consider that playing on any college football military team if they are a dog of 20 or more points coming off a loss of 16 or more points if they allow fewer than 41 points per game and are facing a .666 or greater opponent before Game Eleven of the season is a perfect 20-0 since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month

Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than
3 points coming off three consecutive home games and a SUATS win is 14-1 ATS since 1980.