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NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-01-15	Vikings v. Bears UNDER 43	Top	23-20	Push	0	4 h 20 m	Show
Division games have a tendency to be physical, and more intense, which usually spells defense. The Vikings have the better team here, but playing in Chicago, regardless of how good the Vikings have been, has been a nightmare, as Minnesota has lost seven straight here and 13 of their last 14. The Vikings have scored 13 points or fewer here in four of their last five, and 14 or less in nine of the last 14. The Vikings defense is allowing just 17 points per game on the season, and an up-and-down Bears` offense is going to have trouble moving the chains and scoring points. The Vikings are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven games, and this series has seen the same result, as six of the last seven have come in UNDER the total. The Bears have bounced back from a porous rushing defensive game, as they are 36-17-1 to the UNDER in their last 54 after allowing 150 or more yards on the ground in their previous game. This game also fits a situation which is 118-76 to the under (54-23 if a division game). Take the UNDER in this one.
10-25-15	Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 47	Top	37-29	Loss	-110	53 h 58 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 196-110 since 1989. Make the play on the under.
10-25-15	NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 48	Top	23-30	Loss	-105	50 h 54 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 196-110 since 1989. Make the play on the under.
10-18-15	Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 43.5	Top	31-20	Loss	-110	4 h 19 m	Show
This game fits a situation which has played to the under to a 196-108 record over the past 26 NFL seasons. Make the play on the under.
10-18-15	Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions UNDER 44.5	Top	34-37	Loss	-105	4 h 19 m	Show
This game fits a situation which has played to the under to a 196-108 record over the past 26 NFL seasons. Make the play on the under.
10-04-15	Oakland Raiders v. Chicago Bears OVER 44.5	Top	20-22	Loss	-110	66 h 53 m	Show
The Oakland Raiders come to week 4 favored to equal their season win total from a year ago of 3. The Bears on the other hand, at 0-3, look to avoid their worst start in 15 years. The Raiders may be 2-1, but it took 2 straight games with less than :40 seconds to go to claim those victories, so the margin for error with this team is still razor thin. The Raiders have not won consecutive games on the road since 2011, and we have seen this movie before. The bears suffered their first shutout since 2002 last week, but that was a desperate 0-2 Seattle team, and Oakland is not Seattle. It isn't about the teams here however, it is about the points. Oakland's improvement has come on offense, and Chicago has not stopped anyone at this point, allowing 28.7ppg. The Raiders have allowed 28ppg on the road over the past 4 years, and 2015. The fact is their best effort was allowing 13 on the road over the period and just 4 teams have scored less than 20. The Bears since the start of the 2013 season have held 5 teams under 20 points, while allowing 16 to get to 30+. This game fits an inter-conference total situation which is 55-17 to the over. This one follows suit, make the play on the over.
09-27-15	Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5	Top	28-24	Loss	-110	118 h 9 m	Show
It is tough to suffer a letdown after a loss, but the Ravens dropped a tough 19-13 decision in their opener in Denver, then were a no-show last week in Oakland, losing 37-33. I expect a huge effort this week as the Ravens know if they want to make the playoffs, starting 0-3 would likely leave them behind. History certainly tells the story as any team starting the season at 0-3 has a 2% chance of making the playoffs. I expect to see an intense defensive effort at home vs Cincinnati by the Ravens this week, much the same as we saw in week 1 in Denver. The fact is Baltimore has allowed an average of 16.8ppg here in their history, which dips to 14.4ppg when favored here. The last 2 years have seen Cincinnati road games average just 38.3ppg, less in division games. Baltimore division games averaging just 32.6ppg the last 2 years. This game also fits a 105-196-2 O/U situation. Defensive struggle expected, play on the under.
09-27-15	New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 42.5	Top	22-27	Loss	-110	46 h 15 m	Show
We have watched the slow erosion of the New Orleans Saints offense over the last 4 years, and it continues into the start of the 2015 season. The Saints in 2011 scored 30 points in 12 games, down to 8 in 2012, down to 6 in 2013, and down to 5 last season. Drew Brees has had a great run, but his 84 INT`s the last 5 seasons have taken their toll, and the Saints through 2 games have not scored even 20 in either game. Count the NFLX dress rehearsal game 3, where they scored just 13, and it is a problem. Carolina has never been a high scoring team, and have always been strong defensively. Their 165 home games have seen an average of 39.7ppg scored. Just 47 of their 165 home games have seen more than 45 total points scored (28.4%). That has translated to a 24-42-1 O/U mark at home in their history. This game also fits a situation which is 105-196-2 O/U. Make the play on the under.
01-18-15	Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 46	Top	22-28	Loss	-105	5 h 33 m	Show
I am adding this late because of the timing of weather that will effect this game today. Rain, snow, sleet, do not have an impact on totals in NFL football games, but wind is a huge issue, and it effects the punting game, the return game on special teams, field goal attempts and the passing game. Historically the under is a huge producer with big winds. This is right from NOAA regarding Seattle weather today: Showers. High near 51. Breezy, with a southwest wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. The 60 MPH gusts that occurred this morning will lessen, but gusts to 40 MPH likely, and sustained winds 20-25 MPH. Make the play on the under.
12-28-14	Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans UNDER 40.5	Top	17-23	Win	100	24 h 29 m	Show
This game fits a game 16 situation which is 22-3. The play is on the under
12-18-14	Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 40.5	Top	13-21	Win	100	32 h 12 m	Show
This may be the NFL Primetime Snoozer of the year, as the 2-12 Tennessee Titans take on the equally inept Jacksonville Jaguars, also at 2-12. One reason these teams have struggled is the absence of playmakers at QB and the skill positions. That has left both teams amongst the worst in plays per game, featuring Tennessee an NFL worst at getting off 56.6 plays per game, and Jacksonville 23rd at 62.9. Teams playing after week 15 and both have less than 6 wins to a line of less than -6.5, with the home squad off an under are 14-1 to the under all-time. That is a subset of a full set which shows 34-9 to the under, and n average of 33.9ppg scored by both teams combined. The last 17 meetings between these teams at Jacksonville have resulted in a 13-4 mark to the under, with an average of 36.1ppg scored, and 8-0 to the under if the meeting occurs from week 11-16. Three times these teams played an under game earlier in the season at Tennessee and the rematch later in the season all went under. Also home favorites in division games, played on Thursday with a total of 36.5-44 are 26-7 to the under, with an average of just 32.8ppg scored, and have beaten the total by 8ppg, and are 4-0 this year to the under. Make the play on the under.
12-15-14	New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears UNDER 54	Top	31-15	Win	100	4 h 48 m	Show
The New Orleans Saints at 5-8, are still in control of their own playoff destiny. The NFC South is a mess of bad teams. One thing for sure this is not the offense it once was despite of the yardage. Drew Brees is generating just 7.4 yards per attempt, his lowest in 4 years, his 28 TD passes, the lowest in 7 years. The Saints have scored 30 points or more in just 1 of their last 6 games, and to put that in perspective, the last time they went through a 6 game stretch reaching 30 points just 1 time, was 60 games ago! The Bears are no bargain on defense, but have done much better here than on the road. They give up just 25.3ppg here, and 31.8ppg on the road. Chicago will also miss Brandon Marshall who is out, and on the season the Bears have yet to score more than 28 points in a game. Teams that have scored less than 30 points in their first 13 games average 18.3ppg in game 14, so they don't get things figured out as a rule. The fact is no team that has scored less than 30 in their first 13 games has played to a total of greater than 49. The Saints offense has scored 30+ points just 4 times all season. It has been a slow and steady erosion of this defense over the last 4 years. Three years ago they did it 10 times, 2 years ago 8 times, last year 6 times, this year just 4. This is a reputation total, and is over done. This game also fits a situation which is 109-74 to the under. Make the play on the under.
12-14-14	Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 55	Top	38-27	Win	100	80 h 30 m	Show
The Philadelphia Eagles are off a poor offensive game, but that has been a testament to the over in their next game. The Eagles are 24-0 to the over in their last 24 games when they scored less than 23 points as a dog. Make the play on the over.
12-14-14	Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 49	Top	10-17	Win	100	27 h 47 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 136-66, and the play is on the under.
12-14-14	Washington Redskins v. NY Giants UNDER 47	Top	13-24	Win	100	27 h 46 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 136-66, and the play is on the under.
12-14-14	Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots UNDER 48	Top	13-41	Loss	-105	27 h 46 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 136-66, and the play is on the under.
12-11-14	Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 40.5	Top	12-6	Win	100	10 h 26 m	Show
Neither of these teams have been impressive on offense, while the defenses have shown up big. Arizona has held 11 of 13 opponents to 20 or less points, while the Rams have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 10 points or less including Denver and Peyton Manning to 7. Thursday Night games between division teams with relatively low totals (36.5-44) have been 25-7 to the under in the last 32 meetings when the home team is favored, with 5 of the overs coming when the line was -6 to -9, and 20-2 under to all other lines. Make the play on the under.
12-07-14	Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 50	Top	41-10	Loss	-105	5 h 10 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 151-76 and another which is 190-99. The play is on the under.
11-30-14	Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 44	Top	14-13	Loss	-110	96 h 50 m	Show
This is a non-conference total situation which is 53-12 since 1990, including 8-3 this season. The play is on the over.
11-30-14	NY Giants v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 44.5	Top	24-25	Win	100	96 h 49 m	Show
This is a non-conference total situation which is 53-12 since 1990, including 8-3 this season. The play is on the over. This also has a subset of 26-2 to the over
11-27-14	Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 47	Top	17-34	Win	100	69 h 3 m	Show
The Detroit Lions offense has not scored a TD in their last 2 games. Since scoring 35 points against the Giants in their opener this team has produced all of 16 TD's on the season. When you consider that 2 of those came on a fumble, and interception return, the offense has produced just 14 in 10 games. Then consider that 6 of the 14 came on pass plays of 59,49,73 yards and a running play of 26 yards, that leaves just 9 others. There is certainly more offensive talent on this team to produce more, and the Bears may be the answer. The Lions rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards, and that was mostly done without Megatron. The Bears are 29th defending the pass, and allow a lot of big plays. The Lions are the best team in the NFL vs the run, and despite a good overall defense, they are more vulnerable to the pass. I think the ball is going to be in the air a lot in this game, with big plays abounding. The Lions have not played a game since their opener with more than 47 points scored in it. teams that score 0 TD's in 2 straight games with the last one being away are 18-4 to the over in their next game, and 10-1 to the over if both games were away. Make the play on the over in this one.
11-24-14	Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 51	Top	34-27	Loss	-105	9 h 35 m	Show
The New Orleans Saints should be out of the playoff picture at 4-6 through 10 games. The fact is even with a loss tonight, and if they dropped to 4-7 they are still tied for first in the woeful NFC South. Worse yet, the 2-9 Tampa Bay Bucs would be just 2 games out. The fact is the Saint's offense has been in a slow decline for the past 4 years, including this one. Looking back 4 years ago they scored 30 plus in 12 of 18 games, the following year 8 in 16 games, last year 6 in 18 games, and this year just 2 of their last 8. Baltimore had one bad defensive game, which came in the midst of Big ben on a 3 game rampage. The Ravens, other than that have allowed 27 or less to every other team, and an average of 15.3ppg. This total is based on the Saints offensive reputation, which no longer exists. make the play on the under.
11-23-14	Jacksonville Jaguars v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 50.5	Top	3-23	Win	100	4 h 19 m	Show
This game fits a total situation which is 150-76, and the play is on the under.
11-16-14	Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 45	Top	6-13	Win	100	8 h 55 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 21-1-1 and the play is on the under.
11-16-14	Denver Broncos v. St. Louis Rams OVER 50.5	Top	7-22	Loss	-110	44 h 60 m	Show
The St. Louis Rams will start Shaun Hill at QB. Hill has had a history of playing in high scoring games, as in his 22 starts over the last 5 years the over is 14-8, and that includes 9-4 to the over as a dog, and 3-0 over as a home dog where an average of 63.7ppg has been scored. he has also started 4 games with a total from 47-54, and all 4 topped the total. Peyton Manning should be almost a default over play as over the last 5 years when he starts his team is 50-29 to the over, including 21-8 as a road favorite, where he has led his team to an average of 31.8ppg. This game also fits a situation that is 26-1 to the over as well. Make the play on the over.
11-16-14	Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears UNDER 46.5	Top	13-21	Win	100	44 h 56 m	Show
This game fits one of my top totals situations which is 149-76-2 to the under over the last 25 years, and it has only been under .500 in one season, and over the last 4 years it is 31-12 to the under, and 62.5% this year so far. Make the play on the under.
11-02-14	Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 47.5	Top	23-43	Loss	-107	13 h 49 m	Show
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are a huge rivalry, and these teams not only know each others tendencies well, they play to very close games with a high degree of regularity with 9 of the last 11 meetings decided by 3 points or less. The last 23 meetings have seen the Steelers pass for 300 yards or more just 1 time, while the Ravens have not passed for 300 yards or more in any of the last 23. The last 23 games in this series has seen the average points scored at 36.8ppg lower than any other combination of teams in the last 23 meetings. Just 1 of those last 23 games saw more than 48 points scored between these teams. This is an inflated total, and this game also fits a situation which is 117-74 to the under, including 18-3 when the total is posted at 47 or higher. Cold conditions in Pittsburgh tonight won't help the cause for points. Make the play on the under.
10-19-14	NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 48	Top	21-31	Loss	-110	21 h 42 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 148-74-2 to the under. After going 13-4 last year it is now 4-1 this year. Make the play on the under.
10-19-14	Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 45	Top	23-20	Win	100	20 h 21 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 148-74-2 to the under. After going 13-4 last year it is now 4-1 this year. Make the play on the under.
10-13-14	San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 44.5	Top	31-17	Loss	-115	4 h 3 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is now 74-148-2. It won on both games yesterday, making it 4-1 this year after going 13-4 last year, the play is on the under.
10-12-14	NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 50.5	Top	0-27	Win	100	78 h 20 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 146-74-2 over the last 25 years, and it went 13-4 last year, and so far it is 2-1 this year. make the play on the under.
10-12-14	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns UNDER 47.5	Top	10-31	Win	100	71 h 59 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 146-74-2 over the last 25 years, and it went 13-4 last year, and so far it is 2-1 this year. make the play on the under.
09-28-14	Detroit Lions v. NY Jets OVER 44.5	Top	24-17	Loss	-104	5 h 54 m	Show
This game fits my strongest total situation which is 46-9-3, and the play is on the over.
09-21-14	Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions UNDER 53	Top	7-19	Win	100	41 h 27 m	Show
This game fits a huge totals situation that has gone 145-73-2 over the last 25 years, including 14-4 last year, and is now 74-31 over the last decade. Division games are played much more intensely on defense. Totals from 50 and up in non-division games are 162-154 to the over where division games are 120-78 to the under. Make the play on the under in this one
01-11-14	Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 51.5	Top	22-43	Loss	-110	6 h 0 m	Show
This is a weather play, with heavy rain forecast for the game (not the biggest issue), but the rain will be accompanied by winds at 20-25 MPH sustained, with gusts to 46MPH. Play is on the under
01-11-14	New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45.5	Top	15-23	Win	100	25 h 59 m	Show
Despite the 34-7 outcome in game 1 between these teams this year, a lot happened there early that dictated the rest of the game. Seattle found themselves up 17-0 before the close of the first quarter, so the rest of the game was played accordingly, and not indicative of what to expect here. The Saints are considered a high octane offense, but the fact is, the offense has been in decline for the last 2 years. The 2011 Saints generated a point with every 13.66 yards gained, while that rose last year, and this year it is at 15.44. That is a decrease in efficiency of 13%. The road has been another matter all together, and while they scored 26 last week, it was against the 29th ranked defense in the league. The Saints offense has generated just 15.8ppg in their last 5 road games, but at the same time they have held 12 opponents to 20 or less on the season. The defense ranks 4th in yards allowed per game at just 305 total yards per game, and they went from allowing 32 TD passes a year ago to 20 this year. Seattle has struggled offensively, as they have played pretty much their entire season without both projected starting WR's in Rice, and Harvin. They have run the ball 55% of the time, 2nd most in the league. They have faced a lot of strong defenses with 7 games against the top 7 defenses in the league in yards allowed per game. Those 7 games, which includes New Orleans saw them average just 5.3 yards a play, and run off an average of just an average of 57 plays per game. They simply had too many games where they were limited to 290 yards of total offense a game, often relying on their defense to win games. Those 7 games vs strong defenses, saw their own defense kick it up a notch, allowing just 13.6ppg. New Orleans defense is now better than their offense, on the road, while the perception remains contrary, and it has led to high totals, and low scoring, with each of their last 6 road contests failing to reach the total. there is another factor here, and that will be the weather. Winds at game time are expected to be 20-30 MPH sustained, with gusts as high as 50 MPH. That might put an even greater emphasis on the running game for both sides. make the play on the under.
01-05-14	San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 46	Top	23-20	Win	100	32 h 47 m	Show
THE NFL PLAYOFFS 5 COLDEST GAMES EVER: The NFL playoffs have a lot of history, and the times where the weather man put a little too much Jack Frost in the air, all have a pretty common bond. We have seen snow games in New England, the Fog game, a rain soaked Super Bowl with Indy vs Chicago in Miami, and a handful of absolutely beyond bearable cold conditions. Let's key in on the common bond: 1967 CHAMPIONSHIP DALLAS @ GREEN BAY: The infamous Ice Bowl played at -13 with crazy wind chills FINAL SCORE: GREEN BAY 21 DALLAS 17 1975 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH: This game was played in a wind chill of at least -10 degrees, and it was a turnover fest, with 13 turnovers in the game. FINAL SCORE: 16-10 Pittsburgh 1980 AFC SEMI FINAL OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND: This game was played with a temperature of around 2 degrees with an even colder windchill of -10 or more. FINAL SCORE: 14-12 OAKLAND 1981 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI: Game temperature -9 with insane wind chills: FINAL SCORE: CINCINNATI 27 SAN DIEGO 7 2007: NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY: Game time temperature -1 with insane wind chills FINAL SCORE NY 23 GREEN BAY 20 OT 2014: NFC WILDCARD: SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY: Game time temperature of -4 and since it is a late afternoon game, by the end of the game the temperature should exceed the record of -13 played in during the ice Bowl going down to -19. Wind chills expected in the -30+ range THE COMMON THREAD: 167 points scored in 5 games or 33.4ppg. Total is currently 46.5 If you want to add in a 6th game then consider: 2003-04 TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND: Game time temperature 4 degrees FINAL SCORE: NE 17 TENN 14 So that is now 6 games and 198 total points or 33ppg scored, and no game over 43 total points and that took overtime. Make the play on the under.
01-04-14	New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 54	Top	26-24	Win	100	12 h 37 m	Show
The New Orleans Saints will travel to Philadelphia to open the playoffs vs the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles were supposed to be the dream team a year ago, but that dream became a nightmare. Out goes Andy Reid, and in comes Chip Kelly. The Eagles started the season looking the same as last year's team as they were 1-3 after 4 weeks. Then the light seemed to come on as the Eagles finished 9-3, including winning 6 of their last 7. The biggest change did not come on offense, it came on defense. The Eagles, outside of their debacle in Minnesota, allowed 22 points or less to everyone else over the last 12 games, and at home they allowed just 100 points in their last 6 games at 16.7ppg. The Saints and Drew Brees are invincible at home, where they scored 23 or more points in every game on their way to a 34ppg average. The road has been a totally different story, where they average just 17.8ppg. That is just about half of what they generate on their home field. Make the play on the under.
12-29-13	Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears UNDER 51	Top	33-28	Loss	-109	5 h 58 m	Show
This is a weather play on the under.
12-29-13	Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 46	Top	24-27	Loss	-108	4 h 17 m	Show
The Kansas City Chiefs will not change their playoff seed regardless of the outcome of this game. Coach Andy Reid has been somewhat drifty in how much time his starters will get, but all you have to do is look at his past when he has clinched a playoff spot, and the outcome of the game meant no change in the seeding. This occurred in 2001,2004,2006, and 2010 while coaching Philadelphia. All 4 instances saw Reid sit all his starters or play them for 1 series. San Diego needs Baltimore and Miami to both lose or tie to make the playoffs providing they win. Both Baltimore and Miami play early games, so since this is a 4:25 EST kickoff, the Chargers will know at kickoff, if they are even still alive. If they are not, you may see starters playing a limited role here as well. Looking back at the 4 games Reid coached in this situation, his team scored 15ppg, and gave up 17ppg, and the last 3 saw his team run just an average of 54 plays per game. This is a real game total, and expect a quick low scoring game. Play the under.
12-22-13	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 44	Top	38-31	Loss	-105	21 h 59 m	Show
This game will be played in near blizzard conditions, with winds 15-25 MPH sustained, with gusts over 40 MPH. Make the play on the under.
12-22-13	New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 46.5	Top	13-17	Win	100	23 h 26 m	Show
All my week 16 games are system plays, mainly because the systems in week 16 and week 17 have all been extremely strong for years. The play on team in this game is under.
12-22-13	Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 48.5	Top	14-42	Loss	-110	17 h 18 m	Show
Game conditions warrant a weather play on the under, due to high winds.
12-22-13	Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 43	Top	0-19	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
This is a wind weather play, and it is on the under.
12-22-13	Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins UNDER 54	Top	24-23	Win	100	4 h 28 m	Show
This is a wind weather play, and it is on the under.
12-15-13	Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 42.5	Top	20-30	Loss	-110	24 h 50 m	Show
The NFC North has a long history if battles, especially late in the season. These teams tend to play physical and defensive games, especially late in the season when the weather usually turns sour. The last 21 division games here have played 18-3 to the under. Believe it or not, this is the highest December total played in December in this conference since December 23rd 2007, some 19 games ago. Just one of the last 21 December matchups have seen more than 43 points scored in the game, and Sunday Night in Pittsburgh the wind will be gusting to 35 MPH, so the chances of a high scoring game become diminished. Play the under.
12-15-13	Chicago Bears v. Cleveland Browns UNDER 44.5	Top	38-31	Loss	-110	47 h 29 m	Show
This game is a weather under play. The winds will be about 20 MPH gusting to 30-35, with temps in the 20s. Make the play on the under.
12-15-13	Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 46	Top	3-25	Win	100	47 h 26 m	Show
This game fits a situation which is 138-70 on the under including 4-1 this year. Make the play under the total.
12-12-13	San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos OVER 56.5	Top	27-20	Loss	-110	7 h 19 m	Show
The Chargers suddenly have the 5th best offense in yards per game at 400. The Broncos offense is off the charts this year. Denver`s defense has allowed 30ppg over their last 3, and 26.5ppg for the season, so it is easy to understand why they are 11-2 to the over on the season, and 16-4-1 to the over in their last 21 after scoring 30 or more in their last game. Add in their 41-14-1 mark to the over, after throwing for 250 yards in their last game, and 36-15-1 mark to the over in their last 52 conference games, and we have a lot of evidence the points will be coming easy tonight. Chargers come in at 41-19-4 to the over in their last 64 on the road, and with the thin air in Denver, almost any FG attempt from any distance stands a chance. Play on the over.
12-09-13	Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears UNDER 48	Top	28-45	Loss	-105	6 h 27 m	Show
There has been much written of Tony Romo's December struggles, but he did win this year against the NY Giants 24-21 in the cold. These are a pair of bad defenses tonight, but sometimes you get an assist from the 12th man, and in tonight' case, that will be a wind from 15-20 MPH, gusting as high as 35 MPH. That will have the wind chill down below zero. That is conducive for a lot of running plays here, and short passes. it will also impact the kicking game, as neither team will be aided by a cross wind, blowing left to right across Soldier Field. While we saw snow yesterday, actually helping the offense in spots, on special teams and slipping defenders, the wind helps no one. This is a weather play on the under.
12-01-13	Tennessee Titans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 45.5	Top	14-22	Win	100	4 h 26 m	Show
This game fits one of my most reliable and strongest total situations, which is 137-70-2. The play is on the under.
11-24-13	Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots UNDER 54.5	Top	31-34	Loss	-110	35 h 48 m	Show
This total is going to drop, winds gusting to 40 MPH and sustained winds of 20-25 MPH are going to inhibit the offenses, play the under.
11-24-13	Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 45	Top	11-40	Win	100	20 h 23 m	Show
This game fits a total situation which is 41-8-3 including 15-0-1 this year, play is on the over
11-24-13	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns UNDER 40	Top	27-11	Win	100	27 h 16 m	Show
This is a weather play on the under
11-24-13	Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins OVER 40.5	Top	20-16	Loss	-110	17 h 20 m	Show
This game fits a total situation which is 41-8-3 including 15-0-1 this year, play is on the over.
11-24-13	NY Jets v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 39	Top	3-19	Win	100	4 h 4 m	Show
This is a weather play on the under.
11-18-13	New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers OVER 45.5	Top	20-24	Loss	-110	107 h 13 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 38-8 the last 46 times it has come up, including 12-0-1 this year, play is on the over.
11-17-13	Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5	Top	17-27	Win	100	83 h 2 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 136-70 and the play is on the under.
11-17-13	Arizona Cardinals v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 41	Top	27-14	Push	0	76 h 34 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 38-8 the last 46 times it has come up, including 12-0-1 this year, play is on the over.
11-17-13	Detroit Lions v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 46.5	Top	27-37	Win	100	76 h 33 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 38-8 the last 46 times it has come up, including 12-0-1 this year, play is on the over.
11-17-13	Baltimore Ravens v. Chicago Bears UNDER 41	Top	20-23	Loss	-100	3 h 12 m	Show
This is a wind play on the under, winds will be gusting to 50 MPH in this one, play the under.
11-11-13	Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 41	Top	19-22	Push	0	11 h 15 m	Show
This matchup is between a pair of teams, that have arguably become the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL, at least for now. QB Mike Glennon has not done anything special for Tampa Bay, but he certainly has been an upgrade to Josh Freeman. Freeman was completing just 45% of his passes at 6.1 yards per attempt and 2 TD`s and 3 INT`s. Glennon is completing 60% at 5.7 yards per attempt, but has found the end-zone 8 times to just 3 picks. Mike James has been better in the backfield than the injured Doug Martin, who was not running nearly as effectively as he was a year ago. The difference is 11ppg in the Buc`s first 4 games, to 20ppg in their last 4. Miami has allowed 20 to each of their last 7 opponents, and have scored 17 or more in every game this season. They should have no trouble getting their tonight vs a Tampa ole defense allowing 30ppg over their last 4. This game fits a smoking hot trend that is non-conference home teams with a lower winning percentage than their opponent, as long as they are not favored by 3 or more. This situation is 36-8-3 the last 49 occurrences, and is currently 12-0-1 this season, and on an incredible 25-1-3 run. This situation plays on the over, which is my selection here, OVER the total
11-10-13	Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 41.5	Top	24-27	Win	100	6 h 32 m	Show
This is a late added play and situational based, play is on the OVER
11-03-13	New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets OVER 45.5	Top	20-26	Win	100	121 h 36 m	Show
This game fits a huge total situation which is 36-8, and the play is on the over
11-03-13	San Diego Chargers v. Washington Redskins OVER 50.5	Top	24-30	Win	100	121 h 35 m	Show
This game fits a huge total situation which is 36-8, and the play is on the over.
10-27-13	San Francisco 49ers v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40	Top	42-10	Win	100	73 h 40 m	Show
THE EVOLVING WORLD OF THE NFL AND TOTALS: Professional sports leagues evolve through the years, as we see rule changes, scheme changes, no-huddle fast attack offenses that don't allow the defense to get the right personnel into the game, etc. It would be fair to say that most of the changes over the past decade have given the offense an extra advantage, and trying to protect QB injuries, has also had a great impact on game scoring. The average total in an NFL game illustrates just what is happening in the sport. The average total in an NFL game back in 1995 was 40.6 points per contest. That rose ever so slowly over the next decade and a half, reaching 42.8ppg in the 2010 season. Overall, that showed an increase in points from 40.6 to 42.8 or 2.2 points over a 16 year period. That represents a 9.6% increase overall, nothing Earth shattering considering the time span was 16 years, it represented a growth in totals of 0.6% per season, something hardly noticeable year over year. What has happened since the start of the 2011 season, is hard not to notice. The average total of 42.8ppg in 2010 has soared to 45.5% through 7 weeks of play in 2013. That represents a change of 6.3% in just 2.5 seasons. Besides the rule changes, what we have seen is a lot of duel threat QB's enter the league, providing more stress for the defenses. beyond being duel threats, a lot of the QB's entering the league are simply of high caliber, so in the end scoring is up. SO HOW DO WE CASH IN?: Seems like a lost cause on the surface, simply because the adjustments have apparently already been made....or have they adjusted enough? When considering a point of attack, the best place to look for an OVER would be in a game that has the lowest value on the schedule in terms of the playoffs. There are 3 types of games an NFL team plays, and in order of significance, which is interchangeable with order of intensity it would look like this: 1) division games 2) conference games 3) inter conference games So our focus should turn to the least important games, as intense games tend to become more defensive by nature, and urgency. The second issue, is familiarity. Division opponents know each other, playing twice a year, conference opponents also see each other frequently, but inter conference opponents see each other once every 4 years! So now that we have isolated the how's and why's to arrive at OVER situations in inter conference as the likely point of attack, here is where the gold is: Since the changes that have occurred in totals, really manifested themselves over the last 3 years as depicted above, that is what we will focus on, and it looks like this: 1) inter conference games 2) home team has a lower winning percentage than their opponent 3) home team is essentially a dog, meaning the line constraint, sense the home field advantage is from -2.5 to any dog. When we transpose these simple requirements into the last 3 years we find the over has been: 35-8-2 or 81.4% winners! Have the odds makers started to close this window? HARDLY! It is a perfect 9-0 to the over this season, and 16-0-1 in the last 17! and 22-1-1 in the last 24, the reality is it has been off the charts! It is active this Sunday when San Francisco heads to Jacksonville, so do consider the over in this game. MY NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.
10-27-13	Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots UNDER 45.5	Top	17-27	Win	100	25 h 55 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 134-70-2 since 1989, and the play is on the under.
10-27-13	NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 51.5	Top	15-7	Win	100	25 h 54 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 134-70-2 since 1989, and the play is on the under.
10-21-13	Minnesota Vikings v. NY Giants UNDER 48	Top	7-23	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
Each of these teams have given up 27 points or more in every game they have played this season, the problem is the NY Giants have played a schedule of teams that are a combined 27-14, not 1-4. Historically speaking, a team playing as a home favorite of less than 7 points, that allows more than 30 points a game, playing to a total of 48 or less are 35-13 to the under, including 28-8 lately in the last 36. Play the under.
10-20-13	Houston Texans v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 39	Top	16-17	Loss	-110	49 h 13 m	Show
This game is from my strongest total situation, and is part of my 70% SYSTEM CLUB, this situation is 77-28, and the play is on the over.
10-20-13	San Francisco 49ers v. Tennessee Titans OVER 39.5	Top	31-17	Win	100	50 h 46 m	Show
It is rare that I get 2 strong total situations in the same game, that are independent of each other. I have in this game 101-50 and 62-30, and the play in this game is on the over.
10-20-13	St Louis Rams v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 42	Top	15-30	Loss	-105	46 h 49 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation which is 52-17 and is part of my 70% SYSTEM CLUB. Play is on the under.
10-14-13	Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers OVER 50	Top	9-19	Loss	-115	5 h 18 m	Show
Phillip Rivers after a few really bad seasons, has worked his way back to the form he once had, and the Chargers pass attack has been as good as ever. The San Diego offense is well above average, with the passing game averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on the season. The problem is, as good as the passing attack has been, the defense is allowing 8.1 yards per attempt to opponents. Indianapolis is an above average passing team, and below average defending it, so both offenses have the advantage when the ball is in the air, which should be plenty of the time. Indianapolis is 26-10 to the over facing a team that throws for more than 235 yards a game in their last 36, and 70-46 to the over in a road game, that comes on the heels of a home game in their last 116. I also have a 50-29 situation to the over for this game. Play on the over. While high totals tend to play under, 60% of totals of 49.5 and higher on Monday Night football have gone over the total. Play is on the over.
10-06-13	Jacksonville Jaguars v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 41.5	Top	20-34	Loss	-110	49 h 27 m	Show
the Jacksonville Jaguars have not been able to move the ball all season, scoring just 31 total points in their 4 games. The St. Louis Rams have managed just 18 points in their last 2 games, and that sets the stage for a low scoring contest. Looking back at NFL history when we have a road team that has scored less than 44 points over a 4 consecutive game sequence (struggling offense), doing battle vs a team that has scored less than 25 points in their last 2 games (another struggling offense), the result has been 17-2 to the under. e have seen in these 19 games just 9 of 38 scores (2 for each game) see at least 1 team score 20 points or more. We have also seen the highest scoring game reach 43, the only one of the 19 that made it to 40. There are also 14-1, and 9-0 subsets of this situation, both active. Play this one under the total.
10-06-13	Seattle Seahawks v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 43.5	Top	28-34	Win	100	22 h 25 m	Show
This game fits a situation which has been 61-30 to the over. make the play on the over.
10-06-13	New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears UNDER 51	Top	26-18	Win	100	22 h 24 m	Show
It would be easy to project this one over the total, anytime Drew Brees takes the field. The difference this season for New Orleans however, has been on the other side of the ball. The Saint`s defense last year held just 3 opponents to 17 points or less, and this year through 4 games, no one has scored more than 17 points on them. The Bears have played 4 straight to the over, however teams that have done so are 6-2 to the under in week 5, when the total is posted at 46 or higher, an indication of inflated totals. I also have a few much longer term situations that are all over 55% to the under. Play this one under the total.
09-29-13	Seattle Seahawks v. Houston Texans OVER 41	Top	23-20	Win	100	45 h 19 m	Show
Not a whole lot to say here, except the fact that I have a very reliable total indicator that has gone 99-50, and the play in this game is on the over
09-15-13	Jacksonville Jaguars v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 40	Top	9-19	Win	100	31 h 32 m	Show
This selection is the product of a week 2 situation that has been highly effective over the years. The situation has gone 89-52 to the under since 1989, including 20-5 to the under in the most recent 25 games. Jacksonville enters at 19-7-1 to the under in their last 27 vs the AFC, and Oakland is 7-1 to the under in their last 8 overall. Make the play on the under.
01-20-13	Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots UNDER 52.5	Top	28-13	Win	100	11 h 36 m	Show
FOXBORO,MASS: ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. While many think snow and rain impact football scores the most it is actually only a strong wind that impacts totals, and they have a history of playing under. This is a weather play on the under.
01-05-13	Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans UNDER 43.5	Top	13-19	Win	100	7 h 49 m	Show
The Cincinnati Bengals have played at a high level, but it has been spearheaded by a defense that has registered a lot of sacks ranking 3rd in the NFL. While the defense has been surging Andy dalton has struggled behind an offensive line that has surrendered 18 sacks in the last 4 games, and Houston is right there with Cincinnati ranking 5th in sacks. To complecate matters for the bengals is RB Green-Ellis is playing with an ailing hamstring. Andy dalton over his last 5 games has just 4 TD passes and 7 INT's, and his yards per attempt are down as well. Houston has had problems offensively as well, and with Cincinnati allowing less than 2.5 yards per carry over the last 4 games, and a lot of pressure, schaab isn't likely to find answers in this one. this one sets up to be defensively dominant by both sides, and the play is on the under.
12-23-12	Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 41.5	Top	10-24	Win	100	4 h 49 m	Show
This game fits several strong situations, and because it is a late addition, I won`t do a writeup so I can get it out timely, the play is on the under

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